Design of Work Facilities for Reducing Musculoskeletal Disorders Risk in Paper Pallet Assembly Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mardi Safitri, Dian; Arfi Nabila, Zahra; Azmi, Nora

2018-03-01

Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSD) is one of the ergonomic risks due to manual activity, non-neutral posture and repetitive motion. The purpose of this study is to measure risk and implement ergonomic interventions to reduce the risk of MSD on the paper pallet assembly work station. Measurements to work posture are done by Ovako Working Posture Analysis (OWAS) methods and Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) method, while the measurement of work repetitiveness was using Strain Index (SI) method. Assembly processes operators are identified has the highest risk level. OWAS score, Strain Index, and REBA values are 4, 20.25, and 11. Ergonomic improvements are needed to reduce that level of risk. Proposed improvements will be developed using the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) method applied with Axiomatic House of Quality (AHOQ) and Morphological Chart. As the result, risk level based on OWAS score & REBA score turn out from 4 & 11 to be 1 & 2. Biomechanics analysis of the operator also shows the decreasing values for L4-L5 moment, compression, joint shear, and joint moment strength.

Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand position statement executive summary: coronary artery calcium scoring.

PubMed

Hamilton-Craig, Christian R; Chow, Clara K; Younger, John F; Jelinek, V M; Chan, Jonathan; Liew, Gary Yh

2017-10-16

Introduction This article summarises the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand position statement on coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring. CAC scoring is a non-invasive method for quantifying coronary artery calcification using computed tomography. It is a marker of atherosclerotic plaque burden and the strongest independent predictor of future myocardial infarction and mortality. CAC scoring provides incremental risk information beyond traditional risk calculators such as the Framingham Risk Score. Its use for risk stratification is confined to primary prevention of cardiovascular events, and can be considered as individualised coronary risk scoring for intermediate risk patients, allowing reclassification to low or high risk based on the score. Medical practitioners should carefully counsel patients before CAC testing, which should only be undertaken if an alteration in therapy, including embarking on pharmacotherapy, is being considered based on the test result. Main recommendations CAC scoring should primarily be performed on individuals without coronary disease aged 45-75 years (absolute 5-year cardiovascular risk of 10-15%) who are asymptomatic. CAC scoring is also reasonable in lower risk groups (absolute 5-year cardiovascular risk, < 10%) where risk scores traditionally underestimate risk (eg, family history of premature CVD) and in patients with diabetes aged 40-60 years. We recommend aspirin and a high efficacy statin in high risk patients, defined as those with a CAC score ≥ 400, or a CAC score of 100-399 and above the 75th percentile for age and sex. It is reasonable to treat patients with CAC scores ≥ 100 with aspirin and a statin. It is reasonable not to treat asymptomatic patients with a CAC score of zero. Changes in management as a result of this statement Cardiovascular risk is reclassified according to CAC score. High risk patients are treated with a high efficacy statin and aspirin. Very low risk patients (ie, CAC score of zero) do not benefit from treatment.

Comparison of ergonomic risk assessment outputs from rapid entire body assessment and quick exposure check in an engine oil company.

PubMed

Motamedzade, Majid; Ashuri, Mohammad Reza; Golmohammadi, Rostam; Mahjub, Hossein

2011-06-13

During the last decades, to assess the risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs), enormous observational methods have been developed. Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) and Quick Exposure Check (QEC) are two general methods in this field. This study aimed to compare ergonomic risk assessment outputs from QEC and REBA in terms of agreement in distribution of postural loading scores based on analysis of working postures. This cross-sectional study was conducted in an engine oil company in which 40 jobs were studied. All jobs were observed by a trained occupational health practitioner. Job information was collected to ensure the completion of ergonomic risk assessment tools, including QEC, and REBA. The result revealed that there was a significant correlation between final scores (r=0.731) and the action levels (r =0.893) of two applied methods. Comparison between the action levels and final scores of two methods showed that there was no significant difference among working departments. Most of studied postures acquired low and moderate risk level in QEC assessment (low risk=20%, moderate risk=50% and High risk=30%) and in REBA assessment (low risk=15%, moderate risk=60% and high risk=25%). There is a significant correlation between two methods. They have a strong correlation in identifying risky jobs, and determining the potential risk for incidence of WMSDs. Therefore, there is possibility for researchers to apply interchangeably both methods, for postural risk assessment in appropriate working environments.

Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts

PubMed Central

de las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine

2016-01-01

Background The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. Methods We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994–1995) and S4 (1999–2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000–2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. Results The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. Conclusions The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany. PMID:27732641

Unsupervised Deep Learning Applied to Breast Density Segmentation and Mammographic Risk Scoring.

PubMed

Kallenberg, Michiel; Petersen, Kersten; Nielsen, Mads; Ng, Andrew Y; Pengfei Diao; Igel, Christian; Vachon, Celine M; Holland, Katharina; Winkel, Rikke Rass; Karssemeijer, Nico; Lillholm, Martin

2016-05-01

Mammographic risk scoring has commonly been automated by extracting a set of handcrafted features from mammograms, and relating the responses directly or indirectly to breast cancer risk. We present a method that learns a feature hierarchy from unlabeled data. When the learned features are used as the input to a simple classifier, two different tasks can be addressed: i) breast density segmentation, and ii) scoring of mammographic texture. The proposed model learns features at multiple scales. To control the models capacity a novel sparsity regularizer is introduced that incorporates both lifetime and population sparsity. We evaluated our method on three different clinical datasets. Our state-of-the-art results show that the learned breast density scores have a very strong positive relationship with manual ones, and that the learned texture scores are predictive of breast cancer. The model is easy to apply and generalizes to many other segmentation and scoring problems.

Concordance of Motion Sensor and Clinician-Rated Fall Risk Scores in Older Adults.

PubMed

Elledge, Julie

2017-12-01

As the older adult population in the United States continues to grow, developing reliable, valid, and practical methods for identifying fall risk is a high priority. Falls are prevalent in older adults and contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and rising health costs. Identifying at-risk older adults and intervening in a timely manner can reduce falls. Conventional fall risk assessment tools require a health professional trained in the use of each tool for administration and interpretation. Motion sensor technology, which uses three-dimensional cameras to measure patient movements, is promising for assessing older adults' fall risk because it could eliminate or reduce the need for provider oversight. The purpose of this study was to assess the concordance of fall risk scores as measured by a motion sensor device, the OmniVR Virtual Rehabilitation System, with clinician-rated fall risk scores in older adult outpatients undergoing physical rehabilitation. Three standardized fall risk assessments were administered by the OmniVR and by a clinician. Validity of the OmniVR was assessed by measuring the concordance between the two assessment methods. Stability of the OmniVR fall risk ratings was assessed by measuring test-retest reliability. The OmniVR scores showed high concordance with the clinician-rated scores and high stability over time, demonstrating comparability with provider measurements.

Metabolomic determinants of metabolic risk in Mexican adolescents

PubMed Central

Perng, Wei; Hector, Emily C.; Song, Peter X.K.; Rojo, Martha Maria Tellez; Raskind, Sasha; Kachman, Maureen; Cantoral, Alejandra; Burant, Charles F.; Peterson, Karen E.

2017-01-01

Objective To identify metabolites associated with metabolic risk, separately by sex, in Mexican adolescents. Methods We carried out untargeted metabolomic profiling on fasting serum of 238 youth age 8–14 years, and identified metabolites associated with a metabolic syndrome risk z-score (MetRisk z-score), separately for boys and girls using the simulation and extrapolation (SIMEX) algorithm. We examined associations of each metabolite with MetRisk z-score using linear regression models that accounted for maternal education, child’s age, and pubertal status. Results Of the 938 features identified in metabolomics analysis, 7 named compounds (of 27 identified metabolites) were associated with MetRisk z-score in girls, and 3 named compounds (of 14 identified) were associated with MetRisk z-score in boys. In girls, diacylglycerol (DG) 16:0/16:0, 1,3-dielaidin, myo-inositol, and urate corresponded with higher MetRisk z-score, whereas N-acetylglycine, thymine, and dodecenedioic acid were associated with lower MetRisk z-score. For example, each z-score increment in DG 16:0/16:0 corresponded with 0.60 (0.47, 0.74). In boys, we found positive associations of DG 16:0/16:0, tyrosine, and 5′-methylthioadenosine with MetRisk z-score. Conclusions Metabolites on lipid, amino acid, and carbohydrate metabolism pathways are associated with metabolic risk in girls. Compounds on lipid and DNA pathways correspond with metabolic risk in boys. PMID:28758362

Nutritional risk assessment in critically ill cancer patients: systematic review

PubMed Central

Fruchtenicht, Ana Valéria Gonçalves; Poziomyck, Aline Kirjner; Kabke, Geórgia Brum; Loss, Sérgio Henrique; Antoniazzi, Jorge Luiz; Steemburgo, Thais; Moreira, Luis Fernando

2015-01-01

Objective To systematically review the main methods for nutritional risk assessment used in critically ill cancer patients and present the methods that better assess risks and predict relevant clinical outcomes in this group of patients, as well as to discuss the pros and cons of these methods according to the current literature. Methods The study consisted of a systematic review based on analysis of manuscripts retrieved from the PubMed, LILACS and SciELO databases by searching for the key words “nutritional risk assessment”, “critically ill” and “cancer”. Results Only 6 (17.7%) of 34 initially retrieved papers met the inclusion criteria and were selected for the review. The main outcomes of these studies were that resting energy expenditure was associated with undernourishment and overfeeding. The high Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment score was significantly associated with low food intake, weight loss and malnutrition. In terms of biochemical markers, higher levels of creatinine, albumin and urea were significantly associated with lower mortality. The worst survival was found for patients with worse Eastern Cooperative Oncologic Group - performance status, high Glasgow Prognostic Score, low albumin, high Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment score and high alkaline phosphatase levels. Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index values < 87 were significantly associated with mortality. A high Prognostic Inflammatory and Nutritional Index score was associated with abnormal nutritional status in critically ill cancer patients. Among the reviewed studies that examined weight and body mass index alone, no significant clinical outcome was found. Conclusion None of the methods reviewed helped to define risk among these patients. Therefore, assessment by a combination of weight loss and serum measurements, preferably in combination with other methods using scores such as Eastern Cooperative Oncologic Group - performance status, Glasgow Prognostic Score and Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment, is suggested given that their use is simple, feasible and useful in such cases. PMID:26270855

The use of automated Ki67 analysis to predict Oncotype DX risk-of-recurrence categories in early-stage breast cancer.

PubMed

Thakur, Satbir Singh; Li, Haocheng; Chan, Angela M Y; Tudor, Roxana; Bigras, Gilbert; Morris, Don; Enwere, Emeka K; Yang, Hua

2018-01-01

Ki67 is a commonly used marker of cancer cell proliferation, and has significant prognostic value in breast cancer. In spite of its clinical importance, assessment of Ki67 remains a challenge, as current manual scoring methods have high inter- and intra-user variability. A major reason for this variability is selection bias, in that different observers will score different regions of the same tumor. Here, we developed an automated Ki67 scoring method that eliminates selection bias, by using whole-slide analysis to identify and score the tumor regions with the highest proliferative rates. The Ki67 indices calculated using this method were highly concordant with manual scoring by a pathologist (Pearson's r = 0.909) and between users (Pearson's r = 0.984). We assessed the clinical validity of this method by scoring Ki67 from 328 whole-slide sections of resected early-stage, hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative breast cancer. All patients had Oncotype DX testing performed (Genomic Health) and available Recurrence Scores. High Ki67 indices correlated significantly with several clinico-pathological correlates, including higher tumor grade (1 versus 3, P<0.001), higher mitotic score (1 versus 3, P<0.001), and lower Allred scores for estrogen and progesterone receptors (P = 0.002, 0.008). High Ki67 indices were also significantly correlated with higher Oncotype DX risk-of-recurrence group (low versus high, P<0.001). Ki67 index was the major contributor to a machine learning model which, when trained solely on clinico-pathological data and Ki67 scores, identified Oncotype DX high- and low-risk patients with 97% accuracy, 98% sensitivity and 80% specificity. Automated scoring of Ki67 can thus successfully address issues of consistency, reproducibility and accuracy, in a manner that integrates readily into the workflow of a pathology laboratory. Furthermore, automated Ki67 scores contribute significantly to models that predict risk of recurrence in breast cancer.

A comparison of two prospective risk analysis methods: Traditional FMEA and a modified healthcare FMEA.

PubMed

Rah, Jeong-Eun; Manger, Ryan P; Yock, Adam D; Kim, Gwe-Ya

2016-12-01

To examine the abilities of a traditional failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and modified healthcare FMEA (m-HFMEA) scoring methods by comparing the degree of congruence in identifying high risk failures. The authors applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation were based on the risk priority number (RPN). The RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity, and detectability. The m-HFMEA approach utilized two indices, severity and frequency. A risk inventory matrix was divided into four categories: very low, low, high, and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. The two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks matched. The authors' results showed an agreement of 85% between FMEA and m-HFMEA approaches for top 20 risks of SIG-RS-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the observation that failure modes (52, 54, 154) with high m-HFMEA scores do not necessarily have high FMEA-RPN scores. In the m-HFMEA analysis, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established HFMEA Decision Tree™ or the failure mode should be more thoroughly investigated. m-HFMEA is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allows the prioritization of high risks and mitigation measures. It is therefore a useful tool for the prospective risk analysis method to radiotherapy.

Is quality of life different between diabetic and non-diabetic people? The importance of cardiovascular risks

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Sánchez, B.; Mata-Cases, M.; Rodríguez-Mañas, L.; Capel, M.; Oliva-Moreno, J.

2017-01-01

Background To analyse and compare the impact of cardiovascular risk factors and disease on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in people with and without diabetes living in the community. Methods We used data of 1,905 people with diabetes and 19,031 people without diabetes from the last Spanish National Health Survey (years 2011–2012). The HRQoL instrument used was the EuroQol 5D-5L, based on time trade-off scores. Matching methods were used to assess any differences in the HRQoL in people with and without diabetes with the same characteristics (age, gender, education level, and healthy lifestyle), according to cardiovascular risk factors and diseases. Disparities were also analysed for every dimension of HRQoL: mobility, daily activities, personal care, pain/discomfort, and anxiety/depression. Results There were no significant differences in time trade-off scores between people with and without diabetes when cardiovascular risk factors or established cardiovascular disease were not present. However, when cardiovascular risk factors were present, the HRQoL score was significantly lower in people with diabetes than in those without. This difference was indeed greater when cardiovascular diseases were present. More precisely, people with diabetes and any of the cardiovascular risk factors, who have not yet developed any cardiovascular disease, report lower HRQoL, 0.046 TTO score points over 1 (7.93 over 100 in the VAS score) compared to those without diabetes, and 0.14 TTO score points of difference (14.61 over 100 in the VAS score) if cardiovascular diseases were present. In fact, when the three risk factors were present in people with diabetes, HRQoL was significantly lower (0.10 TTO score points over 1 and 10.86 points over 100 in VAS score), obesity being the most influential risk factor. Conclusions The presence of established cardiovascular disease and/or cardiovascular risk factors, specially obesity, account for impaired quality of life in people with diabetes. PMID:29240836

CRISP: Catheterization RISk score for Pediatrics: A Report from the Congenital Cardiac Interventional Study Consortium (CCISC).

PubMed

Nykanen, David G; Forbes, Thomas J; Du, Wei; Divekar, Abhay A; Reeves, Jaxk H; Hagler, Donald J; Fagan, Thomas E; Pedra, Carlos A C; Fleming, Gregory A; Khan, Danyal M; Javois, Alexander J; Gruenstein, Daniel H; Qureshi, Shakeel A; Moore, Phillip M; Wax, David H

2016-02-01

We sought to develop a scoring system that predicts the risk of serious adverse events (SAE's) for individual pediatric patients undergoing cardiac catheterization procedures. Systematic assessment of risk of SAE in pediatric catheterization can be challenging in view of a wide variation in procedure and patient complexity as well as rapidly evolving technology. A 10 component scoring system was originally developed based on expert consensus and review of the existing literature. Data from an international multi-institutional catheterization registry (CCISC) between 2008 and 2013 were used to validate this scoring system. In addition we used multivariate methods to further refine the original risk score to improve its predictive power of SAE's. Univariate analysis confirmed the strong correlation of each of the 10 components of the original risk score with SAE attributed to a pediatric cardiac catheterization (P < 0.001 for all variables). Multivariate analysis resulted in a modified risk score (CRISP) that corresponds to an increase in value of area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.715 to 0.741. The CRISP score predicts risk of occurrence of an SAE for individual patients undergoing pediatric cardiac catheterization procedures. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Validating a Prognostic Scoring System for Postmastectomy Locoregional Recurrence in Breast Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng, Skye Hung-Chun, E-mail: skye@kfsyscc.org; Clinical Research Office, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina

2013-03-15

Purpose: This study is designed to validate a previously developed locoregional recurrence risk (LRR) scoring system and further define which groups of patients with breast cancer would benefit from postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT). Methods and Materials: An LRR risk scoring system was developed previously at our institution using breast cancer patients initially treated with modified radical mastectomy between 1990 and 2001. The LRR score comprised 4 factors: patient age, lymphovascular invasion, estrogen receptor negativity, and number of involved lymph nodes. We sought to validate the original study by examining a new dataset of 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007. Results:more » The 1545 patients were scored according to the previously developed criteria: 920 (59.6%) were low risk (score 0-1), 493 (31.9%) intermediate risk (score 2-3), and 132 (8.5%) were high risk (score ≥4). The 5-year locoregional control rates with and without PMRT in low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 98% versus 97% (P=.41), 97% versus 91% (P=.0005), and 89% versus 50% (P=.0002) respectively. Conclusions: This analysis of an additional 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007 validates our previously reported LRR scoring system and suggests appropriate patients for whom PMRT will be beneficial. Independent validation of this scoring system by other institutions is recommended.« less

EDUCORE project: a clinical trial, randomised by clusters, to assess the effect of a visual learning method on blood pressure control in the primary healthcare setting

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background High blood pressure (HBP) is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). European hypertension and cardiology societies as well as expert committees on CVD prevention recommend stratifying cardiovascular risk using the SCORE method, the modification of lifestyles to prevent CVD, and achieving good control over risk factors. The EDUCORE (Education and Coronary Risk Evaluation) project aims to determine whether the use of a cardiovascular risk visual learning method - the EDUCORE method - is more effective than normal clinical practice in improving the control of blood pressure within one year in patients with poorly controlled hypertension but no background of CVD; Methods/Design This work describes a protocol for a clinical trial, randomised by clusters and involving 22 primary healthcare clinics, to test the effectiveness of the EDUCORE method. The number of patients required was 736, all between 40 and 65 years of age (n = 368 in the EDUCORE and control groups), all of whom had been diagnosed with HBP at least one year ago, and all of whom had poorly controlled hypertension (systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg and/or diastolic ≥ 90 mmHg). All personnel taking part were explained the trial and trained in its methodology. The EDUCORE method contemplates the visualisation of low risk SCORE scores using images embodying different stages of a high risk action, plus the receipt of a pamphlet explaining how to better maintain cardiac health. The main outcome variable was the control of blood pressure; secondary outcome variables included the SCORE score, therapeutic compliance, quality of life, and total cholesterol level. All outcome variables were measured at the beginning of the experimental period and again at 6 and 12 months. Information on sex, age, educational level, physical activity, body mass index, consumption of medications, change of treatment and blood analysis results was also recorded; Discussion The EDUCORE method could provide a simple, inexpensive means of improving blood pressure control, and perhaps other health problems, in the primary healthcare setting; Trial registration The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01155973 [http://ClinicalTrials.gov]. PMID:20673325

A Study of Correlation of Neck Circumference with Framingham Risk Score as a Predictor of Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Koppad, Anand K; Kaulgud, Ram S; Arun, B S

2017-09-01

It has been observed that metabolic syndrome is risk factor for Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) and exerts its effects through fat deposition and vascular aging. CAD has been acknowledged as a leading cause of death. In earlier studies, the metabolic risk has been estimated by Framingham risk score. Recent studies have shown that Neck Circumference (NC) has a good correlation with other traditional anthropometric measurements and can be used as marker of obesity. It also correlates with Framingham risk score, which is slightly more sophisticated measure of CAD risk. To assess the risk of CAD in a subject based on NC and to correlate the NC to Framingham risk score. The present cross-sectional study, done at Karnataka Institute of Medical Sciences, Hubli, Karnataka, India, includes 100 subjects. The study duration was of one year from 1 st January 2015 to 31 st December 2015. Anthropometric indices Body Mass Index (BMI) and NC were correlated with 10 year CAD risk as calculated by Framingham risk score. The correlation between BMI, NC, vascular age and Framingham risk score was calculated using Karl Pearson's correlation method. NC has a strong correlation with 10 year CAD risk (p≤0.001). NC was significantly greater in males as compared to females (p≤0.001). Males had greater risk of cardiovascular disease as reflected by higher 10 year Framingham risk score (p≤0.0035). NC gives simple and easy prediction of CAD risk and is more reliable than traditional risk markers like BMI. NC correlates positively with 10 year Framingham risk score.

What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

PubMed Central

Pletcher, Mark J; Tice, Jeffrey A; Pignone, Michael; McCulloch, Charles; Callister, Tracy Q; Browner, Warren S

2004-01-01

Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female), we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham) to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance), her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years). In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy. PMID:15327691

Does present use of cardiovascular medication reflect elevated cardiovascular risk scores estimated ten years ago? A population based longitudinal observational study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background It is desirable that those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease should have priority for preventive measures, eg. treatment with prescription drugs to modify their risk. We wanted to investigate to what extent present use of cardiovascular medication (CVM) correlates with cardiovascular risk estimated by three different risk scores (Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK) ten years ago. Methods Prospective logitudinal observational study of 20 252 participants in The Hordaland Health Study born 1950-57, not using CVM in 1997-99. Prescription data obtained from The Norwegian Prescription Database in 2008. Results 26% of men and 22% of women aged 51-58 years had started to use some CVM during the previous decade. As a group, persons using CVM scored significantly higher on the risk algorithms Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK compared to those not treated. 16-20% of men and 20-22% of women with risk scores below the high-risk thresholds for the three risk scores were treated with CVM, while 60-65% of men and 25-45% of women with scores above the high-risk thresholds received no treatment. Among women using CVM, only 2.2% (NORRISK), 4.4% (SCORE) and 14.5% (Framingham) had risk scores above the high-risk values. Low education, poor self-reported general health, muscular pains, mental distress (in females only) and a family history of premature cardiovascular disease correlated with use of CVM. Elevated blood pressure was the single factor most strongly predictive of CVM treatment. Conclusion Prescription of CVM to middle-aged individuals by large seems to occur independently of estimated total cardiovascular risk, and this applies especially to females. PMID:21366925

Utility of different cardiovascular disease prediction models in rheumatoid arthritis

PubMed Central

Purcarea, A; Sovaila, S; Udrea, G; Rezus, E; Gheorghe, A; Tiu, C; Stoica, V

2014-01-01

Background. Rheumatoid arthritis comes with a 30% higher probability for cardiovascular disease than the general population. Current guidelines advocate for early and aggressive primary prevention and treatment of risk factors in high-risk populations but this excess risk is under-addressed in RA in real life. This is mainly due to difficulties met in the correct risk evaluation. This study aims to underline the differences in results of the main cardiovascular risk screening models in the real life rheumatoid arthritis population. Methods. In a cross-sectional study, patients addressed to a tertiary care center in Romania for an biannual follow-up of rheumatoid arthritis and the ones who were considered free of any cardiovascular disease were assessed for subclinical atherosclerosis. Clinical, biological and carotidal ultrasound evaluations were performed. A number of cardiovascular disease prediction scores were performed and differences between tests were noted in regard to subclinical atherosclerosis as defined by the existence of carotid intima media thickness over 0,9 mm or carotid plaque. Results. In a population of 29 Romanian rheumatoid arthritis patients free of cardiovascular disease, the performance of Framingham Risk Score, HeartSCORE, ARIC cardiovascular disease prediction score, Reynolds Risk Score, PROCAM risk score and Qrisk2 score were compared. All the scores under-diagnosed subclinical atherosclerosis. With an AUROC of 0,792, the SCORE model was the only one that could partially stratify patients in low, intermediate and high-risk categories. The use of the EULAR recommended modifier did not help to reclassify patients. Conclusion. The only score that showed a statistically significant prediction capacity for subclinical atherosclerosis in a Romanian rheumatoid arthritis population was SCORE. The additional calibration or the use of imaging techniques in CVD risk prediction for the intermediate risk category might be warranted. PMID:25713628

Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations. Methods We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk. Results Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as ‘high CVD risk’ (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score. Conclusions We found a high level of correlation between a simple, non-laboratory-based CVD risk score and commonly-used laboratory-based risk scores. The burden of CVD mortality risk was high for men and women in South Africa. The policy and clinical implications are that fast, low-cost screening tools can lead to similar risk assessment results compared to time- and resource-intensive approaches. Until setting-specific cohort studies can derive and validate country-specific risk scores, non-laboratory-based CVD risk assessment could be an effective and efficient primary CVD screening approach in South Africa. PMID:23880010

Relationship between CHA2DS2-VASc score and atrial electromechanical function in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: A pilot study.

PubMed

Vatan, Mehmet Bülent; Yılmaz, Sabiye; Ağaç, Mustafa Tarık; Çakar, Mehmet Akif; Erkan, Hakan; Aksoy, Murat; Demirtas, Saadet; Varım, Ceyhun; Akdemir, Ramazan; Gündüz, Hüseyin

2015-11-01

CHA2DS2-VASc score is the most widely preferred method for prediction of stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation. We hypothesized that CHA2DS2-VASc score may represent atrial remodeling status, and therefore echocardiographic evaluation of left atrial electromechanical remodeling can be used to identify patients with high risk. A total of 65 patients who had documented diagnosis of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) were divided into three risk groups according to the CHA2DS2-VASc score: patients with low risk (score=0, group 1), with moderate risk (score=1, group 2), and with high risk score (score ≥2, group 3). We compared groups according to atrial electromechanical intervals and left atrium mechanical functions. Atrial electromechanical intervals including inter-atrial and intra-atrial electromechanical delay were not different between groups. However, parameters reflecting atrial mechanical functions including LA phasic volumes (Vmax, Vmin and Vp) were significantly higher in groups 2 and 3 compared with group 1. Likewise, LA passive emptying volume (LATEV) in the groups 2 and 3 was significantly higher than low-risk group (14.12±8.13ml/m(2), 22.36±8.78ml/m(2), 22.89±7.23ml/m(2), p: 0.031). Univariate analysis demonstrated that Vmax, Vmin and Vp were significantly correlated with CHA2DS2-VASc score (r=0.428, r=0.456, r=0.451 and p<0.001). Also, LATEV (r=0.397, p=0.016) and LA active emptying volume (LAAEV) (r=0.281, p=0.023) were positively correlated with CHA2DS2-VASc score. In the ROC analysis, Vmin≥11ml/m(2) has the highest predictive value for CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 (88% sensitivity and 89% specificity; ROC area 0.88, p<0.001, CI [0.76-0.99]). Echocardiographic evaluation of left atrial electromechanical function might represent a useful method to identify patients with high risk. Copyright © 2015 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment for Corneal Ectasia following Photorefractive Keratectomy

PubMed Central

Kaiserman, Igor; Domniz, Yuval; Sela, Tzahi; Munzer, Gur

2017-01-01

Purpose To analyze the risk factors associated with a series of ectasia cases following photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and all published cases. Methods In a retrospective study on post-PRK ectasia patients, 9 eyes of 7 patients were included, in addition to 20 eyes of 13 patients from the literature. Risk of post-PRK ectasia was calculated using the ectasia risk score system (ERSS) for laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) patients. The percent tissue altered (PTA) was also evaluated. Results ERSS scoring of zero for age, RSB, and spherical equivalent was found in 66%, 86%, and 86% of the eyes, respectively. Pachymetry risk score was 2 in 60% of the eyes and 3 or 4 in 16% of the eyes. Topography risk score was 3 in 41% of the eyes and 4 in 21% of the eyes. Cumulative ectasia risk score was ≥4 (high risk) in 77% of the eyes and ≥3 (medium and high risk) in 86% of the eyes. Average PTA was 23.2 ± 7.0%. All eyes but one had a PTA < 40%. Conclusions Preoperative corneal topographic abnormalities and thin corneas may be significant risk factors for developing ectasia following PRK. Post-LASIK ectasia risk scoring also has relevance in the risk for developing post-PRK ectasia. PMID:28815089

Relation of the aortic stiffness with the GRACE risk score in patients with the non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Omer, Gedikli; Gokhan, Aksan; Adem, Uzun; Sabri, Demircan; Korhan, Soylu

2014-01-01

Background: Current guidelines recommend clinical risk scoring systems for the patients diagnosed and determinated treatment strategy with in Non-ST-elevation elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Previous studies demonstrated association between aortic elasticity properties, stiffness and severity CAD. However, the associations between Aortic stiffness, elasticity properties and clinical risk scores have not been investigated. In the present study we have evaluated the relation between the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and aortic stiffness in patients with NSTEMI. Method: We prospectively analyzed 87 consecutive patients with NSTEMI. Aortic elastic parameter and stiffness parameter were calculated from the echocardiographically derived thoracic aortic diameters (mm/m2), and the measurement of pulse pressure obtained by cuff sphygmomanometry. We have categorized the patients in to two groups as low ((n = 45) (GRACE risk score ≤ 140)) and high ((n = 42) (GRACE risk score > 140)) risk group according to GRACE risk score and compare the both groups. Results: Table 1 shows baseline characteristics of patients. Our study showed that Aortic strain was significantly low (3.5 ± 1.4, 7.9 ± 2.3 respectively, p < 0.001) and aortic stiffness index was significantly high (3.9 ± 0.38; 3 ± 0.35, respectively, p < 0.001) in the high risk group values compared to those with low risk group. The aortic stiffness index was the only independent predictor of GRACE risk score (OR: 119.390; 95% CI: 2.925-4872.8; p = 0.011) in multivariate analysis. Conclusion: We found a significant correlation between aortic stiffness, impaired elasticity and GRACE risk score. Aortic stiffness index was the only independent variable of the high GRACE risk score. The inclusion of aortic stiffness into the GRACE risk score could allow improved risk classification of patients with ACS at admission and this may be important in the diagnosis, follow up and treatment of the patients. PMID:25356178

Risk Selection into Consumer-Directed Health Plans: An Analysis of Family Choices within Large Employers

PubMed Central

McDevitt, Roland D; Haviland, Amelia M; Lore, Ryan; Laudenberger, Laura; Eisenberg, Matthew; Sood, Neeraj

2014-01-01

Objective To identify the degree of selection into consumer-directed health plans (CDHPs) versus traditional plans over time, and factors that influence choice and temper risk selection. Data Sources/Study Setting Sixteen large employers offering both CDHP and traditional plans during the 2004–2007 period, more than 200,000 families. Study Design We model CDHP choice with logistic regression; predictors include risk scores, in addition to family, choice setting, and plan characteristics. Additional models stratify by account type or single enrollee versus family. Data Collection/Extraction Methods Risk scores, family characteristics, and enrollment decisions are derived from medical claims and enrollment files. Interviews with human resources executives provide additional data. Principal Findings CDHP risk scores were 74 percent of traditional plan scores in the first year, and this difference declined over time. Employer contributions to accounts and employee premium savings fostered CDHP enrollment and reduced risk selection. Having to make an active choice of plan increased CDHP enrollment but also increased risk selection. Risk selection was greater for singles than families and did not differ between HRA and HSA-based CDHPs. Conclusions Risk selection was not severe and it was well managed. Employers have effective methods to encourage CDHP enrollment and temper selection against traditional plans. PMID:24800305

Development and evaluation of an office ergonomic risk checklist: ROSA--rapid office strain assessment.

PubMed

Sonne, Michael; Villalta, Dino L; Andrews, David M

2012-01-01

The Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA) was designed to quickly quantify risks associated with computer work and to establish an action level for change based on reports of worker discomfort. Computer use risk factors were identified in previous research and standards on office design for the chair, monitor, telephone, keyboard and mouse. The risk factors were diagrammed and coded as increasing scores from 1 to 3. ROSA final scores ranged in magnitude from 1 to 10, with each successive score representing an increased presence of risk factors. Total body discomfort and ROSA final scores for 72 office workstations were significantly correlated (R = 0.384). ROSA final scores exhibited high inter- and intra-observer reliability (ICCs of 0.88 and 0.91, respectively). Mean discomfort increased with increasing ROSA scores, with a significant difference occurring between scores of 3 and 5 (out of 10). A ROSA final score of 5 might therefore be useful as an action level indicating when immediate change is necessary. ROSA proved to be an effective and reliable method for identifying computer use risk factors related to discomfort. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

The relationship between neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, platelet to lymphocyte ratio and thrombolysis in myocardial infarction risk score in patients with ST elevation acute myocardial infarction before primary coronary intervention

PubMed Central

Ertaş, Faruk; Bilik, Mehmet Zihni; Akıl, Mehmet Ata; Özyurtlu, Ferhat; Aydın, Mesut; Oylumlu, Mustafa; Polat, Nihat; Yüksel, Murat; Yıldız, Abdulkadir; Kaya, Hasan; Akyüz, Abdurrahman; Ayçiçek, Hilal; Özbek, Mehmet; Toprak, Nizamettin

2015-01-01

Introduction The thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk score is calculated as the sum of independent predictors of mortality and ischemic events in ST elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEMI). Several studies show that the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a prognostic inflammatory marker. In preliminary studies, platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) has been proposed as a pro-thrombotic marker. The relationship between NLR, PLR and TIMI risk score for STEMI has never been studied. Aim To evaluate the association between TIMI-STEMI risk score and NLR, PLR and other biochemical indices in STEMI. Material and methods In this retrospective study, we evaluated 390 patients who presented with STEMI within 12 h of symptom onset. Patients were grouped according to low and high TIMI risk scores. Results We enrolled 390 patients (mean age 61.9 ±13.6 years; 73% were men). The NLR, platelet distribution width (PDW) and uric acid level (UA) were significantly associated with a high TIMI-STEMI risk score (p = 0.016, p = 0.008, p = 0.030, respectively), but PLR was not associated with a high TIMI-STEMI risk score. Left ventricular ejection fraction was an independent predictor of TIMI-STEMI risk score. A cut-off point of TIMI-STEMI score of > 4 predicted in-hospital mortality (sensitivity 75%, specificity 70%, p < 0.001). We found that NLR, PDW, and UA level were associated with TIMI-STEMI risk score. Conclusions Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, PDW and UA level are convenient, inexpensive and reproducible biomarkers for STEMI prognosis before primary angioplasty when these indicators are combined with the TIMI-STEMI risk score. We believe that these significant findings can guide further clinical practice. PMID:26161105

Comparison of RISK-PCI, GRACE, TIMI risk scores for prediction of major adverse cardiac events in patients with acute coronary syndrome

PubMed Central

Jakimov, Tamara; Mrdović, Igor; Filipović, Branka; Zdravković, Marija; Djoković, Aleksandra; Hinić, Saša; Milić, Nataša; Filipović, Branislav

2017-01-01

Aim To compare the prognostic performance of three major risk scoring systems including global registry for acute coronary events (GRACE), thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI), and prediction of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (RISK-PCI). Methods This single-center retrospective study involved 200 patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who underwent invasive diagnostic approach, ie, coronary angiography and myocardial revascularization if appropriate, in the period from January 2014 to July 2014. The GRACE, TIMI, and RISK-PCI risk scores were compared for their predictive ability. The primary endpoint was a composite 30-day major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), which included death, urgent target-vessel revascularization (TVR), stroke, and non-fatal recurrent myocardial infarction (REMI). Results The c-statistics of the tested scores for 30-day MACE or area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with confidence intervals (CI) were as follows: RISK-PCI (AUC = 0.94; 95% CI 1.790-4.353), the GRACE score on admission (AUC = 0.73; 95% CI 1.013-1.045), the GRACE score on discharge (AUC = 0.65; 95% CI 0.999-1.033). The RISK-PCI score was the only score that could predict TVR (AUC = 0.91; 95% CI 1.392-2.882). The RISK-PCI scoring system showed an excellent discriminative potential for 30-day death (AUC = 0.96; 95% CI 1.339-3.548) in comparison with the GRACE scores on admission (AUC = 0.88; 95% CI 1.018-1.072) and on discharge (AUC = 0.78; 95% CI 1.000-1.058). Conclusions In comparison with the GRACE and TIMI scores, RISK-PCI score showed a non-inferior ability to predict 30-day MACE and death in ACS patients. Moreover, RISK-PCI was the only scoring system that could predict recurrent ischemia requiring TVR. PMID:29308832

Working postures of dental students: ergonomic analysis using the Ovako Working Analysis System and rapid upper limb assessment.

PubMed

Petromilli Nordi Sasso Garcia, Patrícia; Polli, Gabriela Scatimburgo; Campos, Juliana Alvares Duarte Bonini

2013-01-01

As dentistry is a profession that demands a manipulative precision of hand movements, musculoskeletal disorders are among the most common occupational diseases. This study estimated the risk of musculoskeletal disorders developing in dental students using the Ovako Working Analysis System (OWAS) and Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) methods, and estimated the diagnostic agreement between the 2 methods. Students (n = 75), enrolled in the final undergraduate year at the Araraquara School of Dentistry--UNESP--were studied. Photographs were taken of students while performing diverse clinical procedures (n = 283) using a digital camera, which were assessed using OWAS and RULA. A risk score was attributed following each procedure performed by the student. The prevalence of the risk of musculoskeletal disorders was estimated per point and for a 95% CI. To assess the agreement between the 2 methods, Kappa statistics with linear weighting were used. The level of significance adopted was 5%. There was a high prevalence of the mean score for risk of musculoskeletal disorders in the dental students evaluated according to the OWAS method (p = 97.88%; 95% CI: 96.20-99.56%), and a high prevalence of the high score (p = 40.6; 95% CI: 34.9-46.4%) and extremely high risk (p = 59.4%; 95% CI: 53.6-65.1%) according to RULA method Null agreement was verified (k = 0) in the risk di agnosis of the tested methods. The risk of musculoskeletal disorders in dental students estimated by the OWAS method was medium, whereas the same risk by the RULA method was extremely high. There was no diagnostic agreement between the OWAS and RULA methods.

Functional Movement Screen: Pain versus composite score and injury risk.

PubMed

Alemany, Joseph A; Bushman, Timothy T; Grier, Tyson; Anderson, Morgan K; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; North, William J; Jones, Bruce H

2017-11-01

The Functional Movement Screen (FMS™) has been used as a screening tool to determine musculoskeletal injury risk using composite scores based on movement quality and/or pain. However, no direct comparisons between movement quality and pain have been quantified. Retrospective injury data analysis. Male Soldiers (n=2154, 25.0±1.3years; 26.2±.7kg/m 2 ) completed the FMS (scored from 0 points (pain) to 3 points (no pain and perfect movement quality)) with injury data over the following six months. The FMS is seven movements. Injury data were collected six months after FMS completion. Sensitivity, specificity, receiver operator characteristics and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for pain occurrence and low (≤14 points) composite score. Risk, risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for injury risk. Pain was associated with slightly higher injury risk (RR=1.62) than a composite score of ≤14 points (RR=1.58). When comparing injury risk between those who scored a 1, 2 or 3 on each individual movement, no differences were found (except deep squat). However, Soldiers who experienced pain on any movement had a greater injury risk than those who scored 3 points for that movement (p<0.05). A progressive increase in the relative risk occurred as the number of movements in which pain occurrence increased, so did injury risk (p<0.01). Pain occurrence may be a stronger indicator of injury risk than a low composite score and provides a simpler method of evaluating injury risk compared to the full FMS. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Efficacy of ACL injury risk screening methods in identifying high-risk landing patterns during a sport-specific task.

PubMed

Fox, A S; Bonacci, J; McLean, S G; Saunders, N

2017-05-01

Screening methods sensitive to movement strategies that increase anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) loads are likely to be effective in identifying athletes at-risk of ACL injury. Current ACL injury risk screening methods are yet to be evaluated for their ability to identify athletes' who exhibit high-risk lower limb mechanics during sport-specific maneuvers associated with ACL injury occurrences. The purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of two ACL injury risk screening methods in identifying high-risk lower limb mechanics during a sport-specific landing task. Thirty-two female athletes were screened using the Landing Error Scoring System (LESS) and Tuck Jump Assessment. Participants' also completed a sport-specific landing task, during which three-dimensional kinematic and kinetic data were collected. One-dimensional statistical parametric mapping was used to examine the relationships between screening method scores, and the three-dimensional hip and knee joint rotation and moment data from the sport-specific landing. Higher LESS scores were associated with reduced knee flexion from 30 to 57 ms after initial contact (P = 0.003) during the sport-specific landing; however, no additional relationships were found. These findings suggest the LESS and Tuck Jump Assessment may have minimal applicability in identifying athletes' who exhibit high-risk landing postures in the sport-specific task examined. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantifying prognosis with risk predictions.

PubMed

Pace, Nathan L; Eberhart, Leopold H J; Kranke, Peter R

2012-01-01

Prognosis is a forecast, based on present observations in a patient, of their probable outcome from disease, surgery and so on. Research methods for the development of risk probabilities may not be familiar to some anaesthesiologists. We briefly describe methods for identifying risk factors and risk scores. A probability prediction rule assigns a risk probability to a patient for the occurrence of a specific event. Probability reflects the continuum between absolute certainty (Pi = 1) and certified impossibility (Pi = 0). Biomarkers and clinical covariates that modify risk are known as risk factors. The Pi as modified by risk factors can be estimated by identifying the risk factors and their weighting; these are usually obtained by stepwise logistic regression. The accuracy of probabilistic predictors can be separated into the concepts of 'overall performance', 'discrimination' and 'calibration'. Overall performance is the mathematical distance between predictions and outcomes. Discrimination is the ability of the predictor to rank order observations with different outcomes. Calibration is the correctness of prediction probabilities on an absolute scale. Statistical methods include the Brier score, coefficient of determination (Nagelkerke R2), C-statistic and regression calibration. External validation is the comparison of the actual outcomes to the predicted outcomes in a new and independent patient sample. External validation uses the statistical methods of overall performance, discrimination and calibration and is uniformly recommended before acceptance of the prediction model. Evidence from randomised controlled clinical trials should be obtained to show the effectiveness of risk scores for altering patient management and patient outcomes.

Combining the ASA Physical Classification System and Continuous Intraoperative Surgical Apgar Score Measurement in Predicting Postoperative Risk.

PubMed

Jering, Monika Zdenka; Marolen, Khensani N; Shotwell, Matthew S; Denton, Jason N; Sandberg, Warren S; Ehrenfeld, Jesse Menachem

2015-11-01

The surgical Apgar score predicts major 30-day postoperative complications using data assessed at the end of surgery. We hypothesized that evaluating the surgical Apgar score continuously during surgery may identify patients at high risk for postoperative complications. We retrospectively identified general, vascular, and general oncology patients at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Logistic regression methods were used to construct a series of predictive models in order to continuously estimate the risk of major postoperative complications, and to alert care providers during surgery should the risk exceed a given threshold. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the discriminative ability of a model utilizing a continuously measured surgical Apgar score relative to models that use only preoperative clinical factors or continuously monitored individual constituents of the surgical Apgar score (i.e. heart rate, blood pressure, and blood loss). AUROC estimates were validated internally using a bootstrap method. 4,728 patients were included. Combining the ASA PS classification with continuously measured surgical Apgar score demonstrated improved discriminative ability (AUROC 0.80) in the pooled cohort compared to ASA (0.73) and the surgical Apgar score alone (0.74). To optimize the tradeoff between inadequate and excessive alerting with future real-time notifications, we recommend a threshold probability of 0.24. Continuous assessment of the surgical Apgar score is predictive for major postoperative complications. In the future, real-time notifications might allow for detection and mitigation of changes in a patient's accumulating risk of complications during a surgical procedure.

Tumor Microenvironment of Metastasis and Risk of Distant Metastasis of Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Xue, Xiaonan; Lin, Hung-Mo; D’Alfonso, Timothy M.; Ginter, Paula S.; Oktay, Maja H.; Robinson, Brian D.; Ginsberg, Mindy; Gertler, Frank B.; Glass, Andrew G.; Sparano, Joseph A.; Condeelis, John S.; Jones, Joan G.

2014-01-01

Background Tumor microenvironment of metastasis (TMEM), consisting of direct contact between a macrophage, an endothelial cell, and a tumor cell, has been associated with metastasis in both rodent mammary tumors and human breast cancer. We prospectively examined the association between TMEM score and risk of distant metastasis and compared risk associated with TMEM score with that associated with IHC4. Methods We conducted a case–control study nested within a cohort of 3760 patients with invasive ductal breast carcinoma diagnosed between 1980 and 2000 and followed through 2010. Case patients were women who developed a subsequent distant metastasis; control subjects were matched (1:1) on age at and calendar year of primary diagnosis. TMEM was assessed by triple immunostain and IHC4 by standard methods; slides were read by pathologists blinded to outcome. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression, adjusted for clinical variables. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed, and the area under the curve was estimated. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results TMEM score was associated with increased risk of distant metastasis in estrogen receptor (ER)+/human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2)− tumors (multivariable OR high vs low tertile = 2.70; 95% CI = 1.39 to 5.26; P trend = .004), whereas IHC4 score had a borderline positive association (OR10 unit increase = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.13); the association for TMEM score persisted after adjustment for IHC4 score. The area under the curve for TMEM, adjusted for clinical variables, was 0.78. Neither TMEM score nor IHC4 score was independently associated with metastatic risk overall or in the triple negative or HER2+ subgroups. Conclusions TMEM score predicted risk of distant metastasis in ER+/HER2− breast cancer independently of IHC4 score and classical clinicopathologic features. PMID:24895374

Evaluation of paediatric cardiosurgical model in Croatia by using the Aristotle basic complexity score and the risk adjustment for congenital cardiac surgery-1 method.

PubMed

Dilber, Daniel; Malcic, Ivan

2010-08-01

The Aristotle basic complexity score and the risk adjustment in congenital cardiac surgery-1 method were developed and used to compare outcomes of congenital cardiac surgery. Both methods were used to compare results of procedures performed on our patients in Croatian cardiosurgical centres and results of procedures were taken abroad. The study population consisted of all patients with congenital cardiac disease born to Croatian residents between 1 October, 2002 and 1 October, 2007 undergoing a cardiovascular operation during this period. Of the 556 operations, the Aristotle basic complexity score could be assigned to 553 operations and the risk adjustment in congenital cardiac surgery-1 method to 536 operations. Procedures were performed in two institutions in Croatia and seven institutions abroad. The average complexity for cardiac procedures performed in Croatia was significantly lower. With both systems, along with the increase in complexity, there is also an increase in mortality before discharge and postoperative length of stay. Only after the adjustment for complexity there are marked differences in mortality and occurrence of postoperative complications. Both, the Aristotle basic complexity score and the risk adjustment in congenital cardiac surgery-1 method were predictive of in-hospital mortality as well as prolonged postoperative length to stay, and can be used as a tool in our country to evaluate a cardiosurgical model and recognise potential problems.

An update on risk factors for cartilage loss in knee osteoarthritis assessed using MRI-based semiquantitative grading methods.

PubMed

Alizai, Hamza; Roemer, Frank W; Hayashi, Daichi; Crema, Michel D; Felson, David T; Guermazi, Ali

2015-03-01

Arthroscopy-based semiquantitative scoring systems such as Outerbridge and Noyes' scores were the first to be developed for the purpose of grading cartilage defects. As magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) became available for evaluation of the osteoarthritic knee joint, these systems were adapted for use with MRI. Later on, grading methods such as the Whole Organ Magnetic Resonance Score, the Boston-Leeds Osteoarthritis Knee Score and the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score were designed specifically for performing whole-organ assessment of the knee joint structures, including cartilage. Cartilage grades on MRI obtained with these scoring systems represent optimal outcome measures for longitudinal studies, and are designed to enhance understanding of the knee osteoarthritis disease process. The purpose of this narrative review is to describe cartilage assessment in knee osteoarthritis using currently available MRI-based semiquantitative whole-organ scoring systems, and to provide an update on the risk factors for cartilage loss in knee osteoarthritis as assessed with these scoring systems.

Association between the Family Nutrition and Physical Activity screening tool and cardiovascular disease risk factors in 10-year old children

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yee, Kimbo Edward

Purpose. To examine the association of the Family Nutrition and Physical Activity (FNPA) screening tool, a behaviorally based screening tool designed to assess the obesogenic family environment and behaviors, with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in 10-year old children. Methods. One hundred nineteen children were assessed for body mass index (BMI), percent body fat (%BF), waist circumference (WC), total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, and resting blood pressure. A continuous CVD risk score was created using total cholesterol to HDL-cholesterol ratio (TC:HDL), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and WC. The FNPA survey was completed by parents. The associations between the FNPA score and individual CVD risk factors and the continuous CVD risk score were examined using correlation analyses. Results. Approximately 35% of the sample were overweight (19%) or obese (16%). The mean FNPA score was 24.6 +/- 2.5 (range 18 to 29). Significant correlations were found between the FNPA score and WC (r = -.35, p<.01), BMI percentile (r = -.38, p<.01), %BF (r = -.43, p<.01), and the continuous CVD risk score (r = -.22, p = .02). No significant association was found between the FNPA score and TC:HDL (r=0.10, p=0.88) or MAP (r=-0.12, p=0.20). Conclusion. Children from a high-risk, obesogenic family environment as indicated with a lower FNPA score have a higher CVD risk factor profile than children from a low-risk family environment.

Support Vector Hazards Machine: A Counting Process Framework for Learning Risk Scores for Censored Outcomes.

PubMed

Wang, Yuanjia; Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin

2016-01-01

Learning risk scores to predict dichotomous or continuous outcomes using machine learning approaches has been studied extensively. However, how to learn risk scores for time-to-event outcomes subject to right censoring has received little attention until recently. Existing approaches rely on inverse probability weighting or rank-based regression, which may be inefficient. In this paper, we develop a new support vector hazards machine (SVHM) approach to predict censored outcomes. Our method is based on predicting the counting process associated with the time-to-event outcomes among subjects at risk via a series of support vector machines. Introducing counting processes to represent time-to-event data leads to a connection between support vector machines in supervised learning and hazards regression in standard survival analysis. To account for different at risk populations at observed event times, a time-varying offset is used in estimating risk scores. The resulting optimization is a convex quadratic programming problem that can easily incorporate non-linearity using kernel trick. We demonstrate an interesting link from the profiled empirical risk function of SVHM to the Cox partial likelihood. We then formally show that SVHM is optimal in discriminating covariate-specific hazard function from population average hazard function, and establish the consistency and learning rate of the predicted risk using the estimated risk scores. Simulation studies show improved prediction accuracy of the event times using SVHM compared to existing machine learning methods and standard conventional approaches. Finally, we analyze two real world biomedical study data where we use clinical markers and neuroimaging biomarkers to predict age-at-onset of a disease, and demonstrate superiority of SVHM in distinguishing high risk versus low risk subjects.

Principal component analysis of dietary and lifestyle patterns in relation to risk of subtypes of esophageal and gastric cancer

PubMed Central

Silvera, Stephanie A. Navarro; Mayne, Susan T; Risch, Harvey A.; Gammon, Marilie D; Vaughan, Thomas; Chow, Wong-Ho; Dubin, Joel A; Dubrow, Robert; Schoenberg, Janet; Stanford, Janet L; West, A. Brian; Rotterdam, Heidrun; Blot, William J

2011-01-01

Purpose To perform pattern analyses of dietary and lifestyle factors in relation to risk of esophageal and gastric cancers. Methods We evaluated risk factors for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA), and other gastric cancers (OGA) using data from a population-based case-control study conducted in Connecticut, New Jersey, and western Washington state. Dietary/lifestyle patterns were created using principal component analysis (PCA). Impact of the resultant scores on cancer risk was estimated through logistic regression. Results PCA identified six patterns: meat/nitrite, fruit/vegetable, smoking/alcohol, legume/meat alternate, GERD/BMI, and fish/vitamin C. Risk of each cancer under study increased with rising meat/nitrite score. Risk of EA increased with increasing GERD/BMI score, and risk of ESCC rose with increasing smoking/alcohol score and decreasing GERD/BMI score. Fruit/vegetable scores were inversely associated with EA, ESCC, and GCA. Conclusions PCA may provide a useful approach for summarizing extensive dietary/lifestyle data into fewer interpretable combinations that discriminate between cancer cases and controls. The analyses suggest that meat/nitrite intake is associated with elevated risk of each cancer under study, while fruit/vegetable intake reduces risk of EA, ESCC, and GCA. GERD/obesity were confirmed as risk factors for EA and smoking/alcohol as risk factors for ESCC. PMID:21435900

Comparison of risk classification between EndoPredict and MammaPrint in ER-positive/HER2-negative primary invasive breast cancer

PubMed Central

Peláez-García, Alberto; Yébenes, Laura; Berjón, Alberto; Angulo, Antonia; Zamora, Pilar; Sánchez-Méndez, José Ignacio; Espinosa, Enrique; Redondo, Andrés; Heredia-Soto, Victoria; Mendiola, Marta; Feliú, Jaime

2017-01-01

Purpose To compare the concordance in risk classification between the EndoPredict and the MammaPrint scores obtained for the same cancer samples on 40 estrogen-receptor positive/HER2-negative breast carcinomas. Methods Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded invasive breast carcinoma tissues that were previously analyzed with MammaPrint as part of routine care of the patients, and were classified as high-risk (20 patients) and low-risk (20 patients), were selected to be analyzed by the EndoPredict assay, a second generation gene expression test that combines expression of 8 genes (EP score) with two clinicopathological variables (tumor size and nodal status, EPclin score). Results The EP score classified 15 patients as low-risk and 25 patients as high-risk. EPclin re-classified 5 of the 25 EP high-risk patients into low-risk, resulting in a total of 20 high-risk and 20 low-risk tumors. EP score and MammaPrint score were significantly correlated (p = 0.008). Twelve of 20 samples classified as low-risk by MammaPrint were also low-risk by EP score (60%). 17 of 20 MammaPrint high-risk tumors were also high-risk by EP score. The overall concordance between EP score and MammaPrint was 72.5% (κ = 0.45, (95% CI, 0.182 to 0.718)). EPclin score also correlated with MammaPrint results (p = 0.004). Discrepancies between both tests occurred in 10 cases: 5 MammaPrint low-risk patients were classified as EPclin high-risk and 5 high-risk MammaPrint were classified as low-risk by EPclin and overall concordance of 75% (κ = 0.5, (95% CI, 0.232 to 0.768)). Conclusions This pilot study demonstrates a limited concordance between MammaPrint and EndoPredict. Differences in results could be explained by the inclusion of different gene sets in each platform, the use of different methodology, and the inclusion of clinicopathological parameters, such as tumor size and nodal status, in the EndoPredict test. PMID:28886093

The clinical relevance of the Waterlow pressure sore risk scale in the ICU.

PubMed

Weststrate, J T; Hop, W C; Aalbers, A G; Vreeling, A W; Bruining, H A

1998-08-01

To evaluate whether the Waterlow pressure sore risk (PSR) scale has prognostic significance for intensive care patients. A prospective study. The surgical intensive care unit (ICU) of the University Hospital Rotterdam. Data were evaluated from 594 patients who had been admitted to the ICU during the year 1994. Each patient was assessed daily with respect to their Waterlow PSR score and the development of pressure sores in the sacral region. Actuarial statistical methods were used to analyse the predictive value of the risk score. When a patient had a Waterlow PSR score > 25 on admission, the risk of developing a pressure sore was significantly increased compared to patients with a PSR score < 25. After admission, the daily Waterlow PSR scores obtained were significantly associated with the risk of developing a pressure sore. For each additional point this risk increased by 23% (95% confidence interval 17 to 28%). The Waterlow PSR scale provides the medical and nursing staff at an early stage with reliable information about the risk patients have in developing a pressure sore.

Prognostic value of the Rockall score in patients with acute nonvariceal bleeding from the upper gastrointestinal tract.

PubMed

Cieniawski, Dominik; Kuźniar, Ewelina; Winiarski, Marek; Matłok, Maciej; Kostarczyk, Wojciech; Pedziwiatr, Michał

2013-01-01

Non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common problem in everyday clinical practice. While treating patients affected by UGIB, the estimation of the risk of complications is very important. The Rockall Score is one of the methods used in clinical practice that allows doing that. The aim of this paper is to assess the usefulness of the aforementioned scoring system while treating patients with UGIB. The analysis included, 651 patients with nonvariceal UGIB. The average age of the group was 62.86+16.96 years. Each patient was subjected to the retrospective analysis according to the Rockall Scale's criteria. Then the entire group was divided into the complication risk groups according to the obtained amount of points (low<3, moderate 3 to 8, high>8). After dividing into groups the effort has been taken to find a relationship between Rockall Score points and the occurrences of individual complications. Mortality among the respondents amounted to 11.36%. The hospitalization of 97.70% patients with <3 points on the scale progressed without complications (p<0.001; X2=22.90). In the moderate risk group the highest frequency of re-bleeding and need for surgery were observed. Whereas among patients with >8 points the mortality of 78.95% was noted. Rockall Score is a simple and useful method for assessing prognosis for patients with the non-variceal UGIB. The highest scores are obtained by the patients with a great risk of demise. Rockall Score may be used for classifying patients to appropriate risk groups.

Conditional risk assessment of adolescents’ electronic cigarette perceptions

PubMed Central

Chaffee, Benjamin W.; Gansky, Stuart A.; Halpern-Felsher, Bonnie; Couch, Elizabeth T.; Essex, Gwen; Walsh, Margaret M.

2015-01-01

Objectives Adapt an established instrument for measuring adolescents’ cigarette-related perceptions for new application with electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes). Methods In this exploratory study, 104 male high school students (40% tobacco ever-users) estimated the probability of potential e-cigarette risks (eg, lung cancer) or benefits (eg, look cool). We calculated associations between risk/benefit composite scores, ever-use, and use intention for e-cigarettes and analogously for combustible cigarettes. Results E-cigarette ever-use was associated with lower perceived risks, with adjusted differences versus never-users greater for e-cigarettes than cigarettes. Risk composite score was inversely associated, and benefit score positively associated, with e-cigarette ever-use and use intention. Conclusion Conditional risk assessment characterized adolescents’ perceived e-cigarette risk/benefit profile, with potential utility for risk-perception measurement in larger future studies. PMID:25741686

Sensors vs. experts - A performance comparison of sensor-based fall risk assessment vs. conventional assessment in a sample of geriatric patients

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Fall events contribute significantly to mortality, morbidity and costs in our ageing population. In order to identify persons at risk and to target preventive measures, many scores and assessment tools have been developed. These often require expertise and are costly to implement. Recent research investigates the use of wearable inertial sensors to provide objective data on motion features which can be used to assess individual fall risk automatically. So far it is unknown how well this new method performs in comparison with conventional fall risk assessment tools. The aim of our research is to compare the predictive performance of our new sensor-based method with conventional and established methods, based on prospective data. Methods In a first study phase, 119 inpatients of a geriatric clinic took part in motion measurements using a wireless triaxial accelerometer during a Timed Up&Go (TUG) test and a 20 m walk. Furthermore, the St. Thomas Risk Assessment Tool in Falling Elderly Inpatients (STRATIFY) was performed, and the multidisciplinary geriatric care team estimated the patients' fall risk. In a second follow-up phase of the study, 46 of the participants were interviewed after one year, including a fall and activity assessment. The predictive performances of the TUG, the STRATIFY and team scores are compared. Furthermore, two automatically induced logistic regression models based on conventional clinical and assessment data (CONV) as well as sensor data (SENSOR) are matched. Results Among the risk assessment scores, the geriatric team score (sensitivity 56%, specificity 80%) outperforms STRATIFY and TUG. The induced logistic regression models CONV and SENSOR achieve similar performance values (sensitivity 68%/58%, specificity 74%/78%, AUC 0.74/0.72, +LR 2.64/2.61). Both models are able to identify more persons at risk than the simple scores. Conclusions Sensor-based objective measurements of motion parameters in geriatric patients can be used to assess individual fall risk, and our prediction model's performance matches that of a model based on conventional clinical and assessment data. Sensor-based measurements using a small wearable device may contribute significant information to conventional methods and are feasible in an unsupervised setting. More prospective research is needed to assess the cost-benefit relation of our approach. PMID:21711504

Understanding Foster Youth Outcomes: Is Propensity Scoring Better than Traditional Methods?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berzin, Stephanie Cosner

2010-01-01

Objectives: This study seeks to examine the relationship between foster care and outcomes using multiple comparison methods to account for factors that put foster youth at risk independent of care. Methods: Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, matching, propensity scoring, and comparisons to the general population are used to…

A biomarker-based risk score to predict death in patients with atrial fibrillation: the ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history) death risk score

PubMed Central

Hijazi, Ziad; Oldgren, Jonas; Lindbäck, Johan; Alexander, John H; Connolly, Stuart J; Eikelboom, John W; Ezekowitz, Michael D; Held, Claes; Hylek, Elaine M; Lopes, Renato D; Yusuf, Salim; Granger, Christopher B; Siegbahn, Agneta; Wallentin, Lars

2018-01-01

Abstract Aims In atrial fibrillation (AF), mortality remains high despite effective anticoagulation. A model predicting the risk of death in these patients is currently not available. We developed and validated a risk score for death in anticoagulated patients with AF including both clinical information and biomarkers. Methods and results The new risk score was developed and internally validated in 14 611 patients with AF randomized to apixaban vs. warfarin for a median of 1.9 years. External validation was performed in 8548 patients with AF randomized to dabigatran vs. warfarin for 2.0 years. Biomarker samples were obtained at study entry. Variables significantly contributing to the prediction of all-cause mortality were assessed by Cox-regression. Each variable obtained a weight proportional to the model coefficients. There were 1047 all-cause deaths in the derivation and 594 in the validation cohort. The most important predictors of death were N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin-T, growth differentiation factor-15, age, and heart failure, and these were included in the ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical history)-death risk score. The score was well-calibrated and yielded higher c-indices than a model based on all clinical variables in both the derivation (0.74 vs. 0.68) and validation cohorts (0.74 vs. 0.67). The reduction in mortality with apixaban was most pronounced in patients with a high ABC-death score. Conclusion A new biomarker-based score for predicting risk of death in anticoagulated AF patients was developed, internally and externally validated, and well-calibrated in two large cohorts. The ABC-death risk score performed well and may contribute to overall risk assessment in AF. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00412984 and NCT00262600 PMID:29069359

Association of Risk Estimates of Three Different Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Tools with Carotid Intima Media Thickness in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes.

PubMed

Herath, Herath Mudiyanselage Meththananda; Weerarathna, Thilak Priyantha; Dulanjalee, Ranasinghe Bethmi Arachige Thilini; Jayawardana, Madumekala Rupasinghe; Edirisingha, Udara Priyadarshani; Rathnayake, Madushanka

2016-07-01

Risk assessment tools used to calculate the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk such as the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes study (UKPDS) risk engine and the World Health Organization (WHO) risk score have not been tested on their ability to detect subclinical atherosclerosis in most developing countries. To study the association between the calculated CVD risk scores using each of these tools and Carotid Intima Medial Thickness (CIMT), a surrogate marker of atherosclerosis, in a group of patients with Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in Sri Lanka. We calculated CVD risk scores of 68 randomly selected patients with T2DM with no history or symptoms of CVD and measured their CIMT using B-mode ultrasonography (USS). Carotid USS was considered positive when the maximum carotid IMT was 0.9mm or when arteriosclerotic plaques were detected. The 10-year CVD risk was calculated using the FRS, the UKPDS risk engine and the WHO risk score. Pearson correlation was used to study the association between CVD risk scores with CIMT. Of the 68 patients studied, 50% were males and their mean age (SD) was 56.9 (±9.6) years. The mean age at onset and duration of diabetes were 44.3(±9.1) and 12.2(±7.6) years respectively. Of the scoring methods, UKPDS tool had weak, but significantly positive (r = 0.26, p < 0.05) and FRS had positive but not significant association (r= 0. 21) with CIMT. There was a negative association between CIMT and WHO risk score (r= - 0.07). Of the three CVD risk assessment tools, both UKPDS risk engine and FRS have almost equal ability (former being marginally superior) in predicting underlying atherosclerotic vascular disease in patients with T2DM. Negative association of the WHO risk score with CIMT argues against its utility for CVD screening. These findings highlight the need for developing more sensitive and reliable CVD risk assessment tools for developing countries.

The mortality risk score and the ADG score: two points-based scoring systems for the Johns Hopkins aggregated diagnosis groups to predict mortality in a general adult population cohort in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Walraven, Carl van

2011-10-01

Logistic regression models that incorporated age, sex, and indicator variables for the Johns Hopkins' Aggregated Diagnosis Groups (ADGs) categories have been shown to accurately predict all-cause mortality in adults. To develop 2 different point-scoring systems using the ADGs. The Mortality Risk Score (MRS) collapses age, sex, and the ADGs to a single summary score that predicts the annual risk of all-cause death in adults. The ADG Score derives weights for the individual ADG diagnosis groups. : Retrospective cohort constructed using population-based administrative data. All 10,498,413 residents of Ontario, Canada, between the age of 20 and 100 years who were alive on their birthday in 2007, participated in this study. Participants were randomly divided into derivation and validation samples. : Death within 1 year. In the derivation cohort, the MRS ranged from -21 to 139 (median value 29, IQR 17 to 44). In the validation group, a logistic regression model with the MRS as the sole predictor significantly predicted the risk of 1-year mortality with a c-statistic of 0.917. A regression model with age, sex, and the ADG Score has similar performance. Both methods accurately predicted the risk of 1-year mortality across the 20 vigintiles of risk. The MRS combined values for a person's age, sex, and the John Hopkins ADGs to accurately predict 1-year mortality in adults. The ADG Score is a weighted score representing the presence or absence of the 32 ADG diagnosis groups. These scores will facilitate health services researchers conducting risk adjustment using administrative health care databases.

An alternative method for quantifying coronary artery calcification: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA).

PubMed

Liang, C Jason; Budoff, Matthew J; Kaufman, Joel D; Kronmal, Richard A; Brown, Elizabeth R

2012-07-02

Extent of atherosclerosis measured by amount of coronary artery calcium (CAC) in computed tomography (CT) has been traditionally assessed using thresholded scoring methods, such as the Agatston score (AS). These thresholded scores have value in clinical prediction, but important information might exist below the threshold, which would have important advantages for understanding genetic, environmental, and other risk factors in atherosclerosis. We developed a semi-automated threshold-free scoring method, the spatially weighted calcium score (SWCS) for CAC in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Chest CT scans were obtained from 6814 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). The SWCS and the AS were calculated for each of the scans. Cox proportional hazards models and linear regression models were used to evaluate the associations of the scores with CHD events and CHD risk factors. CHD risk factors were summarized using a linear predictor. Among all participants and participants with AS > 0, the SWCS and AS both showed similar strongly significant associations with CHD events (hazard ratios, 1.23 and 1.19 per doubling of SWCS and AS; 95% CI, 1.16 to 1.30 and 1.14 to 1.26) and CHD risk factors (slopes, 0.178 and 0.164; 95% CI, 0.162 to 0.195 and 0.149 to 0.179). Even among participants with AS = 0, an increase in the SWCS was still significantly associated with established CHD risk factors (slope, 0.181; 95% CI, 0.138 to 0.224). The SWCS appeared to be predictive of CHD events even in participants with AS = 0, though those events were rare as expected. The SWCS provides a valid, continuous measure of CAC suitable for quantifying the extent of atherosclerosis without a threshold, which will be useful for examining novel genetic and environmental risk factors for atherosclerosis.

The SAFARI Score to Assess the Risk of Convulsive Seizure During Admission for Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Jaja, Blessing N R; Schweizer, Tom A; Claassen, Jan; Le Roux, Peter; Mayer, Stephan A; Macdonald, R Loch

2018-06-01

Seizure is a significant complication in patients under acute admission for aneurysmal SAH and could result in poor outcomes. Treatment strategies to optimize management will benefit from methods to better identify at-risk patients. To develop and validate a risk score for convulsive seizure during acute admission for SAH. A risk score was developed in 1500 patients from a single tertiary hospital and externally validated in 852 patients. Candidate predictors were identified by systematic review of the literature and were included in a backward stepwise logistic regression model with in-hospital seizure as a dependent variable. The risk score was assessed for discrimination using the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) and for calibration using a goodness-of-fit test. The SAFARI score, based on 4 items (age ≥ 60 yr, seizure occurrence before hospitalization, ruptured aneurysm in the anterior circulation, and hydrocephalus requiring cerebrospinal fluid diversion), had AUC = 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73-0.82 in the development cohort. The validation cohort had AUC = 0.65, 95% CI 0.56-0.73. A calibrated increase in the risk of seizure was noted with increasing SAFARI score points. The SAFARI score is a simple tool that adequately stratified SAH patients according to their risk for seizure using a few readily derived predictor items. It may contribute to a more individualized management of seizure following SAH.

School Readiness and the Draw-a-Man Test: An Empiricaly Derived Alternative to Harris' Scoring System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simner, Marvin L.

1985-01-01

An abbreviated scoring system for the Goodenough-Harris Draw-A-Man Test found that three items had the same overall potential for correctly identifying at-risk kindergarteners as more time-consuming scoring methods. (CL)

A Survey of Knowledge, Individual Perceived Risk, General Perceived Risk, and Behavioral Intentions Regarding Hepatitis B among Students in the Faculty of Nursing, Midwifery and Health at Shahrekord Islamic Azad University in 2014

PubMed Central

Karimiankakolaki, Zohreh; Baghianimoghadam, Mohammad Hossein; Gerayllo, Sakineh; Sheikh Samani, Nadia; Hadipour, Hajar

2016-01-01

Background Hepatitis B is the most common cause of liver disease, and medical students are a risk group for the disease given their future occupations. Objectives The aim of the study was to assess of predictors of hepatitis B in the Faculty of nursing, midwifery and health at Shahrekord Islamic Azad University in 2014. Materials and Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted with 300 students from the Faculty of nursing, midwifery and health at Shahrekord Islamic Azad University. The students answered questionnaires with items covering demographic characteristics, individual knowledge, public risk perception, perceived personal risk, and behavioral intentions regarding hepatitis B. The data were analyzed with SPSS version 18 software. Results The mean knowledge score of the students was 4.77 ± 1.71, the mean public risk perception score was 24.22 ± 3.44, the mean perceived personal risk score was 6.51 ± 1.97, and the mean behavioral intention score was 12.06 ± 2.97. There were significant differences in the mean knowledge scores in terms of gender, level of awareness, and level of education. There were also differences in the mean behavioral intention scores in terms of gender and field of study, the mean perceived personal risk scores in terms of level of education and field of study, and the mean public risk perception scores in terms of field of study. Conclusions According to the results of this study, it is necessary to implement educational intervention in order to allow students to identify risk factors and overcome barriers to understanding the implications of the disease in this context. PMID:27651804

Health, safety and environmental risk of a gas pipeline in an oil exploring area of Gachsaran.

PubMed

Kalatpoor, Omid; Goshtasp, Kambiz; Khavaji, Solieman

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was assessing health, safety and environmental risk of a gas transfer pipeline in an oily area of Gachsaran. In this method, we used the Kent's pipeline risk assessment method except that to facilitate using the method more practically some changes were exerted into Kent's method. A pipeline with 16 kilometers length was selected considering surrounding nature of the pipeline. It was divided into two sections. Analogous to Kent's method, in this method, parameters included: interested party's injuries, corrosion, design factor, incorrect operation index and consequence scoring. The difference here was that for consequence scoring we used ALOHA 5.6 software instead of Kent's pattern. Results showed that health, safety and environmental risks of section 2 (the next 13 kilometers of outgoing pipeline from gas station after the first 3 kilometers) were greater. It seems the main cause of gaining a bigger risk number was related to more activities of interested parties around section 2. Because all figures gathered from indexes are almost close to gather except third parties activity.

Latent information in fluency lists predicts functional decline in persons at risk for Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Clark, D G; Kapur, P; Geldmacher, D S; Brockington, J C; Harrell, L; DeRamus, T P; Blanton, P D; Lokken, K; Nicholas, A P; Marson, D C

2014-06-01

We constructed random forest classifiers employing either the traditional method of scoring semantic fluency word lists or new methods. These classifiers were then compared in terms of their ability to diagnose Alzheimer disease (AD) or to prognosticate among individuals along the continuum from cognitively normal (CN) through mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to AD. Semantic fluency lists from 44 cognitively normal elderly individuals, 80 MCI patients, and 41 AD patients were transcribed into electronic text files and scored by four methods: traditional raw scores, clustering and switching scores, "generalized" versions of clustering and switching, and a method based on independent components analysis (ICA). Random forest classifiers based on raw scores were compared to "augmented" classifiers that incorporated newer scoring methods. Outcome variables included AD diagnosis at baseline, MCI conversion, increase in Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes (CDR-SOB) score, or decrease in Financial Capacity Instrument (FCI) score. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed for each classifier and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated. We compared AUC between raw and augmented classifiers using Delong's test and assessed validity and reliability of the augmented classifier. Augmented classifiers outperformed classifiers based on raw scores for the outcome measures AD diagnosis (AUC .97 vs. .95), MCI conversion (AUC .91 vs. .77), CDR-SOB increase (AUC .90 vs. .79), and FCI decrease (AUC .89 vs. .72). Measures of validity and stability over time support the use of the method. Latent information in semantic fluency word lists is useful for predicting cognitive and functional decline among elderly individuals at increased risk for developing AD. Modern machine learning methods may incorporate latent information to enhance the diagnostic value of semantic fluency raw scores. These methods could yield information valuable for patient care and clinical trial design with a relatively small investment of time and money. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

PubMed Central

Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

2009-01-01

Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

Changes in Diet Quality Scores and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Among US Men and Women

PubMed Central

Sotos-Prieto, Mercedes; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N.; Mattei, Josiemer; Fung, Teresa T.; Li, Yanping; Pan, An; Willett, Walter C.; Rimm, Eric B.; Hu, Frank B.

2015-01-01

Background Adherence to several diet quality scores including the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI), Alternative Mediterranean diet score (AMED), and Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension (DASH) has been associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but little is known about how changes in these scores over time influence subsequent CVD risk. Methods and Results We analyzed the association between 4-year changes in three diet quality scores (AHEI, AMED, and DASH) and subsequent CVD risk among 29,343 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and 51,195 women in the Nurses’ Health Study (1986–2010). During 1,394,702 person-years of follow up, we documented 11,793 CVD cases. Compared with participants whose diet quality remained relatively stable in each 4-year period, those with the greatest improvement in diet quality scores had a 7%–8% lower CVD risk in the subsequent 4-year period (pooled hazard ratio, 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87–0.99] for AHEI; 0.93 [95% CI: 0.85–1.02] for AMED; and 0.93 [95% CI: 0.87–0.99] for DASH; all P-trend<0.05). In the long term, increasing the diet scores from baseline to the first 4-year follow up was associated with lower CVD risk during the next 20 years (7% [95% CI: 1% to 12%] for AHEI and 9% [95% CI: 3% to 14%] for AMED). A decrease in diet quality scores was associated with significantly elevated risk of CVD in subsequent time periods. Conclusions Improving adherence to diet quality scores over time is associated with significantly lower CVD risk both in the short term and the long term. PMID:26644246

Estimating the Effectiveness of Health-Risk Communications with Propensity-Score Matching: Application to Arsenic Groundwater Contamination in Four US Locations

PubMed Central

Leidner, Andrew J.

2014-01-01

This paper provides a demonstration of propensity-score matching estimation methods to evaluate the effectiveness of health-risk communication efforts. This study develops a two-stage regression model to investigate household and respondent characteristics as they contribute to aversion behavior to reduce exposure to arsenic-contaminated groundwater. The aversion activity under study is a household-level point-of-use filtration device. Since the acquisition of arsenic contamination information and the engagement in an aversion activity may be codetermined, a two-stage propensity-score model is developed. In the first stage, the propensity for households to acquire arsenic contamination information is estimated. Then, the propensity scores are used to weight observations in a probit regression on the decision to avert the arsenic-related health risk. Of four potential sources of information, utility, media, friend, or others, information received from a friend appears to be the source of information most associated with aversion behavior. Other statistically significant covariates in the household's decision to avert contamination include reported household income, the presence of children in household, and region-level indicator variables. These findings are primarily illustrative and demonstrate the usefulness of propensity-score methods to estimate health-risk communication effectiveness. They may also be suggestive of areas for future research. PMID:25349622

Developing a new case based computer-aided detection scheme and an adaptive cueing method to improve performance in detecting mammographic lesions

PubMed Central

Tan, Maxine; Aghaei, Faranak; Wang, Yunzhi; Zheng, Bin

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate a new method to improve performance of computer-aided detection (CAD) schemes of screening mammograms with two approaches. In the first approach, we developed a new case based CAD scheme using a set of optimally selected global mammographic density, texture, spiculation, and structural similarity features computed from all four full-field digital mammography (FFDM) images of the craniocaudal (CC) and mediolateral oblique (MLO) views by using a modified fast and accurate sequential floating forward selection feature selection algorithm. Selected features were then applied to a “scoring fusion” artificial neural network (ANN) classification scheme to produce a final case based risk score. In the second approach, we combined the case based risk score with the conventional lesion based scores of a conventional lesion based CAD scheme using a new adaptive cueing method that is integrated with the case based risk scores. We evaluated our methods using a ten-fold cross-validation scheme on 924 cases (476 cancer and 448 recalled or negative), whereby each case had all four images from the CC and MLO views. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was AUC = 0.793±0.015 and the odds ratio monotonically increased from 1 to 37.21 as CAD-generated case based detection scores increased. Using the new adaptive cueing method, the region based and case based sensitivities of the conventional CAD scheme at a false positive rate of 0.71 per image increased by 2.4% and 0.8%, respectively. The study demonstrated that supplementary information can be derived by computing global mammographic density image features to improve CAD-cueing performance on the suspicious mammographic lesions. PMID:27997380

RISK SCORE FOR IDENTIFYING ADULTS WITH CSF PLEOCYTOSIS AND NEGATIVE CSF GRAM STAIN AT LOW RISK FOR AN URGENT TREATABLE CAUSE

PubMed Central

Hasbun, Rodrigo; Bijlsma, Merijn; Brouwer, Matthijs C; Khoury, Nabil; Hadi, Christiane M; van der Ende, Arie; Wootton, Susan H.; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hossain, Md Monir; Beilke, Mark; van de Beek, Diederik

2013-01-01

Background We aimed to derive and validate a risk score that identifies adults with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Methods Patients with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain were stratified into a prospective derivation (n=193) and a retrospective validation (n=567) cohort. Clinically related baseline characteristics were grouped into three composite variables, each independently associated with a set of predefined urgent treatable causes. We subsequently derived a risk score classifying patients into low (0 composite variables present) or high ( ≥ 1 composite variables present) risk for an urgent treatable cause. The sensitivity of the risk score was determined in the validation cohort and in a prospective case series of 214 adults with CSF-culture proven bacterial meningitis, CSF pleocytosis and a negative Gram stain. Findings A total of 41 of 193 patients (21%) in the derivation cohort and 71 of 567 (13%) in the validation cohort had an urgent treatable cause. Sensitivity of the dichotomized risk score to detect an urgent treatable cause was 100.0% (95%CI 93.9-100.0%) in the validation cohort and 100.0% (95%CI 97.8-100.0%) in bacterial meningitis patients. Interpretation The risk score can be used to identify adults with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. PMID:23619080

Predictive values of D-dimer assay, GRACE scores and TIMI scores for adverse outcome in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Satilmisoglu, Muhammet Hulusi; Ozyilmaz, Sinem Ozbay; Gul, Mehmet; Ak Yildirim, Hayriye; Kayapinar, Osman; Gokturk, Kadir; Aksu, Huseyin; Erkanli, Korhan; Eksik, Abdurrahman

2017-01-01

Purpose To determine the predictive values of D-dimer assay, Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores for adverse outcome in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Patients and methods A total of 234 patients (mean age: 57.2±11.7 years, 75.2% were males) hospitalized with NSTEMI were included. Data on D-dimer assay, GRACE and TIMI risk scores were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the risk factors predicting increased mortality. Results Median D-dimer levels were 349.5 (48.0–7,210.0) ng/mL, the average TIMI score was 3.2±1.2 and the GRACE score was 90.4±27.6 with high GRACE scores (>118) in 17.5% of patients. The GRACE score was correlated positively with both the D-dimer assay (r=0.215, P=0.01) and TIMI scores (r=0.504, P=0.000). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that higher creatinine levels (odds ratio =18.465, 95% confidence interval: 1.059–322.084, P=0.046) constituted the only significant predictor of increased mortality risk with no predictive values for age, D-dimer assay, ejection fraction, glucose, hemoglobin A1c, sodium, albumin or total cholesterol levels for mortality. Conclusion Serum creatinine levels constituted the sole independent determinant of mortality risk, with no significant values for D-dimer assay, GRACE or TIMI scores for predicting the risk of mortality in NSTEMI patients. PMID:28408834

A Study of Risk Factors and T- Score Variability in Romanian Women with Postmenopausal Osteoporosis

PubMed Central

TöRöK-OANCE, Rodica

2013-01-01

Abstract Background The purpose of this study was to analyse the prevalence of postmenopausal osteoporosis risk factors and to analyse the T-score variability in spine and hip according to the associated risk factors. Methods This is a retrospective study (2003-2007) including 177 female patients with postmenopausal osteoporosis. The patients were separated in seven groups according to the number of risk factors per case. The T-score was compared between this groups using unpaired t-Student test. Results The most frequent risk factor was early menopause (44.63%), followed by low consumption of dairy products (37.29%), coffee consumption (25.99%), sedentary lifestyle (20.9%), smoking (19.21%), delayed menarche (15.25%), low body mass index (10.71%), nulliparity (7.91%), alcohol consumption (0.56%). The maximum number of risk factors per case was six. The T-score decreased with increasing number of risk factors. T-score differences are statistically significant when comparing cases with 6 risk factors to cases with 5 risk factors (P=0.0315 in spine; P=0.0088 in hip), 4 risk factors (P=0.0076 in spine; P=0.043 in hip), 3 risk factors (P<0.0001 in spine; P=0.0205 in hip), 2 risk factors (P=0.0012 in spine; P<0.0001 in hip), a single risk factor (P<0.001 in spine and hip) and no risk factor (P=0.0075 in spine; P=0.0006 in hip). Conclusion Association of several risk factors leads to decrease of T-score so being able to avoid any such factors may contribute to a better bone mineral density. This could be achieved by the education of female population regarding postmenopausal osteoporosis risk factors, followed by adopting an appropriate lifestyle and diet. PMID:26060640

The PRONE score: an algorithm for predicting doctors’ risks of formal patient complaints using routinely collected administrative data

PubMed Central

Spittal, Matthew J; Bismark, Marie M; Studdert, David M

2015-01-01

Background Medicolegal agencies—such as malpractice insurers, medical boards and complaints bodies—are mostly passive regulators; they react to episodes of substandard care, rather than intervening to prevent them. At least part of the explanation for this reactive role lies in the widely recognised difficulty of making robust predictions about medicolegal risk at the individual clinician level. We aimed to develop a simple, reliable scoring system for predicting Australian doctors’ risks of becoming the subject of repeated patient complaints. Methods Using routinely collected administrative data, we constructed a national sample of 13 849 formal complaints against 8424 doctors. The complaints were lodged by patients with state health service commissions in Australia over a 12-year period. We used multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify predictors of subsequent complaints, defined as another complaint occurring within 2 years of an index complaint. Model estimates were then used to derive a simple predictive algorithm, designed for application at the doctor level. Results The PRONE (Predicted Risk Of New Event) score is a 22-point scoring system that indicates a doctor's future complaint risk based on four variables: a doctor's specialty and sex, the number of previous complaints and the time since the last complaint. The PRONE score performed well in predicting subsequent complaints, exhibiting strong validity and reliability and reasonable goodness of fit (c-statistic=0.70). Conclusions The PRONE score appears to be a valid method for assessing individual doctors’ risks of attracting recurrent complaints. Regulators could harness such information to target quality improvement interventions, and prevent substandard care and patient dissatisfaction. The approach we describe should be replicable in other agencies that handle large numbers of patient complaints or malpractice claims. PMID:25855664

Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

PubMed Central

Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

2015-01-01

Introduction National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the ‘high risk’ patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Methods Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien–Dindo classification. Results The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien–Dindo grade 2–3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4–5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Discussion Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. Conclusions In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the ‘high-risk’ patient. PMID:26468369

Genetic Risk Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation

PubMed Central

Lubitz, Steven A.; Yin, Xiaoyan; Lin, Henry J.; Kolek, Matthew; Smith, J. Gustav; Trompet, Stella; Rienstra, Michiel; Rost, Natalia S.; Teixeira, Pedro L.; Almgren, Peter; Anderson, Christopher D.; Chen, Lin Y.; Engström, Gunnar; Ford, Ian; Furie, Karen L.; Guo, Xiuqing; Larson, Martin G.; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; Macfarlane, Peter W.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Stott, David J.; Taylor, Kent D.; Weng, Lu-Chen; Yao, Jie; Geelhoed, Bastiaan; Verweij, Niek; Siland, Joylene E.; Kathiresan, Sekar; Roselli, Carolina; Roden, Dan; van der Harst, Pim; Darbar, Dawood; Jukema, J. Wouter; Melander, Olle; Rosand, Jonathan; Rotter, Jerome I.; Heckbert, Susan R.; Ellinor, Patrick T.; Alonso, Alvaro; Benjamin, Emelia J.

2017-01-01

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common and has a substantial genetic basis. Identification of individuals at greatest AF risk could minimize the incidence of cardioembolic stroke. Methods To determine whether genetic data can stratify risk for development of AF, we examined associations between AF genetic risk scores and incident AF in five prospective studies comprising 18,919 individuals of European ancestry. We examined associations between AF genetic risk scores and ischemic stroke in a separate study of 509 ischemic stroke cases (202 cardioembolic [40%]) and 3,028 controls. Scores were based on 11 to 719 common variants (≥5%) associated with AF at P-values ranging from <1×10−3 to <1×10−8 in a prior independent genetic association study. Results Incident AF occurred in 1,032 (5.5%) individuals. AF genetic risk scores were associated with new-onset AF after adjusting for clinical risk factors. The pooled hazard ratio for incident AF for the highest versus lowest quartile of genetic risk scores ranged from 1.28 (719 variants; 95%CI, 1.13–1.46; P=1.5×10−4) to 1.67 (25 variants; 95%CI, 1.47–1.90; P=9.3×10−15). Discrimination of combined clinical and genetic risk scores varied across studies and scores (maximum C statistic, 0.629–0.811; maximum ΔC statistic from clinical score alone, 0.009–0.017). AF genetic risk was associated with stroke in age- and sex-adjusted models. For example, individuals in the highest quartile of a 127-variant score had a 2.49-fold increased odds of cardioembolic stroke, versus those in the lowest quartile (95%CI, 1.39–4.58; P=2.7×10−3). The effect persisted after excluding individuals (n=70) with known AF (odds ratio, 2.25; 95%CI, 1.20–4.40; P=0.01). Conclusions Comprehensive AF genetic risk scores were associated with incident AF beyond clinical AF risk factors, with magnitudes of risk comparable to other clinical risk factors, though offered small improvements in discrimination. AF genetic risk was also associated with cardioembolic stroke in age- and sex-adjusted analyses. Efforts to determine whether AF genetic risk may improve identification of subclinical AF or distinguish stroke mechanisms are warranted. PMID:27793994

Individualizing Risk of Multidrug-Resistant Pathogens in Community-Onset Pneumonia

PubMed Central

Falcone, Marco; Russo, Alessandro; Giannella, Maddalena; Cangemi, Roberto; Scarpellini, Maria Gabriella; Bertazzoni, Giuliano; Alarcón, José Martínez; Taliani, Gloria; Palange, Paolo; Farcomeni, Alessio; Vestri, Annarita; Bouza, Emilio; Violi, Francesco; Venditti, Mario

2015-01-01

Introduction The diffusion of multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria has created the need to identify risk factors for acquiring resistant pathogens in patients living in the community. Objective To analyze clinical features of patients with community-onset pneumonia due to MDR pathogens, to evaluate performance of existing scoring tools and to develop a bedside risk score for an early identification of these patients in the Emergency Department. Patients and Methods This was an open, observational, prospective study of consecutive patients with pneumonia, coming from the community, from January 2011 to January 2013. The new score was validated on an external cohort of 929 patients with pneumonia admitted in internal medicine departments participating at a multicenter prospective study in Spain. Results A total of 900 patients were included in the study. The final logistic regression model consisted of four variables: 1) one risk factor for HCAP, 2) bilateral pulmonary infiltration, 3) the presence of pleural effusion, and 4) the severity of respiratory impairment calculated by use of PaO2/FiO2 ratio. A new risk score, the ARUC score, was developed; compared to Aliberti, Shorr, and Shindo scores, this point score system has a good discrimination performance (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.82) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow, χ2 = 7.64; p = 0.469). The new score outperformed HCAP definition in predicting etiology due to MDR organism. The performance of this bedside score was confirmed in the validation cohort (AUC 0.68, 95% CI 0.60-0.77). Conclusion Physicians working in ED should adopt simple risk scores, like ARUC score, to select the most appropriate antibiotic regimens. This individualized approach may help clinicians to identify those patients who need an empirical broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy. PMID:25860142

Pedophilia: an evaluation of diagnostic and risk prediction methods.

PubMed

Wilson, Robin J; Abracen, Jeffrey; Looman, Jan; Picheca, Janice E; Ferguson, Meaghan

2011-06-01

One hundred thirty child sexual abusers were diagnosed using each of following four methods: (a) phallometric testing, (b) strict application of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed., text revision [DSM-IV-TR]) criteria, (c) Rapid Risk Assessment of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR) scores, and (d) "expert" diagnoses rendered by a seasoned clinician. Comparative utility and intermethod consistency of these methods are reported, along with recidivism data indicating predictive validity for risk management. Results suggest that inconsistency exists in diagnosing pedophilia, leading to diminished accuracy in risk assessment. Although the RRASOR and DSM-IV-TR methods were significantly correlated with expert ratings, RRASOR and DSM-IV-TR were unrelated to each other. Deviant arousal was not associated with any of the other methods. Only the expert ratings and RRASOR scores were predictive of sexual recidivism. Logistic regression analyses showed that expert diagnosis did not add to prediction of sexual offence recidivism over and above RRASOR alone. Findings are discussed within a context of encouragement of clinical consistency and evidence-based practice regarding treatment and risk management of those who sexually abuse children.

Sensors vs. experts - a performance comparison of sensor-based fall risk assessment vs. conventional assessment in a sample of geriatric patients.

PubMed

Marschollek, Michael; Rehwald, Anja; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Gietzelt, Matthias; Nemitz, Gerhard; zu Schwabedissen, Hubertus Meyer; Schulze, Mareike

2011-06-28

Fall events contribute significantly to mortality, morbidity and costs in our ageing population. In order to identify persons at risk and to target preventive measures, many scores and assessment tools have been developed. These often require expertise and are costly to implement. Recent research investigates the use of wearable inertial sensors to provide objective data on motion features which can be used to assess individual fall risk automatically. So far it is unknown how well this new method performs in comparison with conventional fall risk assessment tools. The aim of our research is to compare the predictive performance of our new sensor-based method with conventional and established methods, based on prospective data. In a first study phase, 119 inpatients of a geriatric clinic took part in motion measurements using a wireless triaxial accelerometer during a Timed Up&Go (TUG) test and a 20 m walk. Furthermore, the St. Thomas Risk Assessment Tool in Falling Elderly Inpatients (STRATIFY) was performed, and the multidisciplinary geriatric care team estimated the patients' fall risk. In a second follow-up phase of the study, 46 of the participants were interviewed after one year, including a fall and activity assessment. The predictive performances of the TUG, the STRATIFY and team scores are compared. Furthermore, two automatically induced logistic regression models based on conventional clinical and assessment data (CONV) as well as sensor data (SENSOR) are matched. Among the risk assessment scores, the geriatric team score (sensitivity 56%, specificity 80%) outperforms STRATIFY and TUG. The induced logistic regression models CONV and SENSOR achieve similar performance values (sensitivity 68%/58%, specificity 74%/78%, AUC 0.74/0.72, +LR 2.64/2.61). Both models are able to identify more persons at risk than the simple scores. Sensor-based objective measurements of motion parameters in geriatric patients can be used to assess individual fall risk, and our prediction model's performance matches that of a model based on conventional clinical and assessment data. Sensor-based measurements using a small wearable device may contribute significant information to conventional methods and are feasible in an unsupervised setting. More prospective research is needed to assess the cost-benefit relation of our approach.

Weighing of risk factors for penetrating keratoplasty graft failure: application of Risk Score System

PubMed Central

Tourkmani, Abdo Karim; Sánchez-Huerta, Valeria; De Wit, Guillermo; Martínez, Jaime D.; Mingo, David; Mahillo-Fernández, Ignacio; Jiménez-Alfaro, Ignacio

2017-01-01

AIM To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS) proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP) graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. METHODS The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases), incomplete medical notes (5 cases) and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases). We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. RESULTS Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed no statistically significant relationship (P>0.05) between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant (P<0.05), although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. CONCLUSION After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y. PMID:28393027

Prenatal Exposure to Perfluoroalkyl Substances and Cardiometabolic Risk in Children from the Spanish INMA Birth Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Casas, Maribel; Lopez-Espinosa, Maria-Jose; Ballester, Ferran; Iñiguez, Carmen; Martinez, David; Romaguera, Dora; Fernández-Barrés, Silvia; Santa-Marina, Loreto; Basterretxea, Mikel; Schettgen, Thomas; Valvi, Damaskini; Vioque, Jesus; Sunyer, Jordi; Vrijheid, Martine

2017-01-01

Background: Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) may affect body mass index (BMI) and other components of cardiometabolic (CM) risk during childhood, but evidence is scarce and inconsistent. Objectives: We estimated associations between prenatal PFAS exposures and outcomes relevant to cardiometabolic risk, including a composite CM-risk score. Methods: We measured perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS), perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) in maternal plasma (first trimester). We assessed weight gain from birth until 6 mo. At 4 and 7 y, we calculated the age- and sex-specific z-scores for BMI, waist circumference (WC), and blood pressure (BP) (n≈1,000). At age 4, we calculated the age-, sex-, and region-specific z-scores for cholesterol, triglycerides (TGs), high-density (HDL-C), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (n=627). At age 4, we calculated a CM-risk score (n=386) as the sum of the individual age-, sex-, and region-specific z-scores for WC, BP, HDL-C, and TGs. We used the average between the negative of HDL-C z-score and TGs z-score to give similar weight to lipids and the other components in the score. A higher score indicates a higher cardiometabolic risk at age 4. Results: PFOS and PFOA were the most abundant PFAS (geometric mean: 5.80 and 2.32 ng/mL, respectively). In general, prenatal PFAS concentrations were not associated with individual outcomes or the combined CM-risk score. Exceptions were positive associations between prenatal PFHxS and TGs z-score [for a doubling of exposure, β=0.11; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.01, 0.21], and between PFNA and the CM-risk score (β=0.60; 95% CI: 0.04, 1.16). There was not clear or consistent evidence of modification by sex. Conclusions: We observed little or no evidence of associations between low prenatal PFAS exposures and outcomes related to cardiometabolic risk in a cohort of Spanish children followed from birth until 7 y. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1330 PMID:28934720

An Empiric HIV Risk Scoring Tool to Predict HIV-1 Acquisition in African Women.

PubMed

Balkus, Jennifer E; Brown, Elizabeth; Palanee, Thesla; Nair, Gonasagrie; Gafoor, Zakir; Zhang, Jingyang; Richardson, Barbra A; Chirenje, Zvavahera M; Marrazzo, Jeanne M; Baeten, Jared M

2016-07-01

To develop and validate an HIV risk assessment tool to predict HIV acquisition among African women. Data were analyzed from 3 randomized trials of biomedical HIV prevention interventions among African women (VOICE, HPTN 035, and FEM-PrEP). We implemented standard methods for the development of clinical prediction rules to generate a risk-scoring tool to predict HIV acquisition over the course of 1 year. Performance of the score was assessed through internal and external validations. The final risk score resulting from multivariable modeling included age, married/living with a partner, partner provides financial or material support, partner has other partners, alcohol use, detection of a curable sexually transmitted infection, and herpes simplex virus 2 serostatus. Point values for each factor ranged from 0 to 2, with a maximum possible total score of 11. Scores ≥5 were associated with HIV incidence >5 per 100 person-years and identified 91% of incident HIV infections from among only 64% of women. The area under the curve (AUC) for predictive ability of the score was 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68 to 0.74), indicating good predictive ability. Risk score performance was generally similar with internal cross-validation (AUC = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.73) and external validation in HPTN 035 (AUC = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.65 to 0.75) and FEM-PrEP (AUC = 0.58; 95% CI: 0.51 to 0.65). A discrete set of characteristics that can be easily assessed in clinical and research settings was predictive of HIV acquisition over 1 year. The use of a validated risk score could improve efficiency of recruitment into HIV prevention research and inform scale-up of HIV prevention strategies in women at highest risk.

Risk selection into consumer-directed health plans: an analysis of family choices within large employers.

PubMed

McDevitt, Roland D; Haviland, Amelia M; Lore, Ryan; Laudenberger, Laura; Eisenberg, Matthew; Sood, Neeraj

2014-04-01

To identify the degree of selection into consumer-directed health plans (CDHPs) versus traditional plans over time, and factors that influence choice and temper risk selection. Sixteen large employers offering both CDHP and traditional plans during the 2004–2007 period, more than 200,000 families. We model CDHP choice with logistic regression; predictors include risk scores, in addition to family, choice setting, and plan characteristics. Additional models stratify by account type or single enrollee versus family. Risk scores, family characteristics, and enrollment decisions are derived from medical claims and enrollment files. Interviews with human resources executives provide additional data. CDHP risk scores were 74 percent of traditional plan scores in the first year, and this difference declined over time. Employer contributions to accounts and employee premium savings fostered CDHP enrollment and reduced risk selection. Having to make an active choice of plan increased CDHP enrollment but also increased risk selection. Risk selection was greater for singles than families and did not differ between HRA and HSA-based CDHPs. Risk selection was not severe and it was well managed. Employers have effective methods to encourage CDHP enrollment and temper selection against traditional plans.

Counselling pregnant women at the crossroads of Europe and Asia: effect of Teratology Information Service in Turkey.

PubMed

Kaplan, Yusuf Cem; Karadaş, Barış; Küçüksolak, Gözde; Ediz, Bartu; Demir, Ömer; Sozmen, Kaan; Nordeng, Hedvig

2017-08-01

Background Previous studies from western countries demonstrated the effectiveness of Teratology Information Service (TIS) counselling in reducing the teratogenic risk perception of pregnant women. Objective To assess whether TIS counselling would be effective in reducing the teratogenic risk perception of the Turkish pregnant women. Setting A TIS (Terafar) operating in a university hospital in Turkey. Methods A cross-sectional survey study. Pregnant women with non-teratogenic medication exposures were asked to assign scores on visual analogue scales (VAS) in response to the questions aiming to measure their teratogenic risk perception. The mean score before and after counselling were compared and the associations with maternal socio-demographic characteristics were analysed using SPSS (Version 20.0). Main outcome measures The differences in the mean scores of the perception regarding the baseline risk of pregnancy, own teratogenic risk and the likelihood of termination of pregnancy before and after counselling and their possible associations with maternal socio-demographic characteristics. Results 102 pregnant women participated in the study. The counselling significantly reduced the mean own teratogenic risk perception score and the mean score for the likelihood of termination of pregnancy whereas the mean baseline risk perception score was not significantly changed. Pregnancy week <8 and the exposed number of active ingredients <3 were significantly associated with the difference in the mean score for the likelihood of termination of pregnancy. Conclusions TIS counselling lowers the teratogenic risk perception of Turkish pregnant women and increases their likelihood to continue the pregnancy as it does in the western countries.

Defining High Risk Patients for Endovascular Aneurysm Repair: A National Analysis

PubMed Central

Egorova, Natalia; Giacovelli, Jeannine K.; Gelijns, Annetine; Mureebe, Leila; Greco, Giampaolo; Morrissey, Nicholas; Nowygrod, Roman; Moskowitz, Alan; McKinsey, James; Kent, K. Craig

2011-01-01

Background Endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) is commonly used as a minimally invasive technique for repairing infrarenal aortic aneurysms. There have been recent concerns that a subset of high-risk patients experience unfavorable outcomes with this intervention. To determine whether such a high-risk cohort exists and to identify the characteristics of these patients, we analyzed the outcomes of Medicare patients treated with EVAR from 2000–2006. Methods and Results We identified 66,943 patients who underwent EVAR from Inpatient Medicare database. The overall 30-day mortality was 1.6%. A risk model for perioperative mortality was developed by randomly selecting 44,630 patients; the other 1/3 of the dataset was used to validate the model. The model was deemed reliable (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics was p=0.25 for the development, p=0.24 for the validation model) and accurate (c=0.735 and c=0.731 for the development and the validation model, respectively). In our scoring system, where scores ranged between 1 and 7, the following were identified as significant baseline factors that predict mortality: renal failure with dialysis (score=7), renal failure without dialysis (score=3), clinically significant lower extremity ischemia (score=5), patient age ≥85 (score=3), 75–84 (score=2), 70–74 (score=1), heart failure (score=3), chronic liver disease (score=3), female gender (score=2), neurological disorders (score=2), , chronic pulmonary disease (score=2), surgeon experience in EVAR<3 procedures (score=1) and hospital annual volume in EVAR <7 procedures (score=1). The majority of Medicare patients who were treated (96.6%, n=64,651) had a score of 9 or less, which correlated with a mortality < 5%. Only 3.4% of patients had a mortality ≥ 5% and 0.8% of patients (n=509) had a score of 13 or higher, which correlated with a mortality >10%. Conclusion We conclude that there is a high-risk cohort of patients that should not be treated with EVAR; however, this cohort is small. Our scoring system, which is based on patient and institutional factors, provides criteria that can be easily used by clinicians to quantify perioperative risk for EVAR candidates. PMID:19782526

Analysis of Risk Factors for Postoperative Morbidity in Perforated Peptic Ulcer

PubMed Central

Kim, Jae-Myung; Jeong, Sang-Ho; Park, Soon-Tae; Choi, Sang-Kyung; Hong, Soon-Chan; Jung, Eun-Jung; Ju, Young-Tae; Jeong, Chi-Young; Ha, Woo-Song

2012-01-01

Purpose Emergency operations for perforated peptic ulcer are associated with a high incidence of postoperative complications. While several studies have investigated the impact of perioperative risk factors and underlying diseases on the postoperative morbidity after abdominal surgery, only a few have analyzed their role in perforated peptic ulcer disease. The purpose of this study was to determine any possible associations between postoperative morbidity and comorbid disease or perioperative risk factors in perforated peptic ulcer. Materials and Methods In total, 142 consecutive patients, who underwent surgery for perforated peptic ulcer, at a single institution, between January 2005 and October 2010 were included in this study. The clinical data concerning the patient characteristics, operative methods, and complications were collected retrospectively. Results The postoperative morbidity rate associated with perforated peptic ulcer operations was 36.6% (52/142). Univariate analysis revealed that a long operating time, the open surgical method, age (≥60), sex (female), high American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score and presence of preoperative shock were significant perioperative risk factors for postoperative morbidity. Significant comorbid risk factors included hypertension, diabetes mellitus and pulmonary disease. Multivariate analysis revealed a long operating time, the open surgical method, high ASA score and the presence of preoperative shock were all independent risk factors for the postoperative morbidity in perforated peptic ulcer. Conclusions A high ASA score, preoperative shock, open surgery and long operating time of more than 150 minutes are high risk factors for morbidity. However, there is no association between postoperative morbidity and comorbid disease in patients with a perforated peptic ulcer. PMID:22500261

Credit scoring analysis using weighted k nearest neighbor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukid, M. A.; Widiharih, T.; Rusgiyono, A.; Prahutama, A.

2018-05-01

Credit scoring is a quatitative method to evaluate the credit risk of loan applications. Both statistical methods and artificial intelligence are often used by credit analysts to help them decide whether the applicants are worthy of credit. These methods aim to predict future behavior in terms of credit risk based on past experience of customers with similar characteristics. This paper reviews the weighted k nearest neighbor (WKNN) method for credit assessment by considering the use of some kernels. We use credit data from a private bank in Indonesia. The result shows that the Gaussian kernel and rectangular kernel have a better performance based on the value of percentage corrected classified whose value is 82.4% respectively.

Advancing the Hypothesis that Geographic Variations in Risk Factors Contribute Relatively Little to Observed Geographic Variations in Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality

PubMed Central

Howard, George; Cushman, Mary; Prineas, Ronald J.; Howard, Virginia J.; Moy, Claudia S.; Sullivan, Lisa M.; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; McClure, Leslie A.; Pulley, Lea Vonne; Safford, Monika M.

2009-01-01

Purpose Geographic variation in risk factors may underlie geographic disparities in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality. Methods Framingham CHD Risk Score (FCRS) and Stroke Risk Score (FSRS) were calculated for 25,770 stroke-free and 22,247 CHD-free participants from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke cohort. Vital statistics provided age-adjusted CHD and stroke mortality rates. In an ecologic analysis, the age-adjusted, race-sex weighted, average state-level risk factor levels were compared to state-level mortality rates. Results There was no relationship between CHD and stroke mortality rates (r = 0.04; p = 0.78), but there was between CHD and stroke risk scores at the individual (r = 0.68; p < 0.0001) and state (r = 0.64, p < 0.0001) level. There was a stronger (p < 0.0001) association between state-level FCRS and state-level CHD mortality (r = 0.28, p = 0.18), than between FSRS and stroke mortality (r = 0.12, p = 0.56). Conclusions Weak associations between CHD and stroke mortality and strong associations between CHD and stroke risk scores suggest geographic variation in risk factors may not underlie geographic variations in stroke and CHD mortality. The relationship between risk factor scores and mortality was stronger for CHD than stroke. PMID:19285103

Assessing Risk for Sexual Offenders in New Zealand: Development and Validation of a Computer-Scored Risk Measure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skelton, Alexander; Riley, David; Wales, David; Vess, James

2006-01-01

A growing research base supports the predictive validity of actuarial methods of risk assessment with sexual offenders. These methods use clearly defined variables with demonstrated empirical association with re-offending. The advantages of actuarial measures for screening large numbers of offenders quickly and economically are further enhanced…

Physical activity assessed with three different methods and the Framingham Risk Score on 10-year coronary heart disease risk

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Physical activity (PA) protects against coronary heart disease (CHD) by favorably altering several CHD risk factors. In order to best understand the true nature of the relationship between PA and CHD, the impact different PA assessment methods have on the relationships must first be clarified. The p...

Theory-Driven Longitudinal Study Exploring Indoor Tanning Initiation in Teens Using a Person-Centered Approach

PubMed Central

Hillhouse, Joel; Turrisi, Rob; Cleveland, Michael J.; Scaglione, Nichole M.; Baker, Katie; Florence, L. Carter

2015-01-01

Background Younger indoor tanning initiation leads to greater melanoma risk due to more frequent and persistent behavior. Despite this, there are no published studies exploring the predictors of indoor tanning initiation in teen populations. Purpose This longitudinal study uses latent profile analysis to examine indoor tanning initiation in indoor tanning risk subgroups from a national sample of female adolescents. Methods Latent profile analysis used indoor tanning beliefs and perceptions to identify indoor tanning initiation risk subgroups. The teens in each subgroup were reassessed on indoor tanning initiation after a year. Results Three subgroups were identified: a low-risk, Anti-Tanning subgroup (18.6%) characterized by low scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales and high scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers; a moderate-risk Aware Social Tanner subgroup (47.2%) characterized by high scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales but also high scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers; and a high-risk Risky Relaxation Tanner subgroup (34.2%) characterized by high scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales and low scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers. Teens in the Aware Social Tanner and Risky Relaxation Tanner subgroups were significantly more likely to initiate indoor tanning in the following year. Conclusions These findings highlight the need to identify teens at risk for indoor tanning initiation and develop tailored interventions that will move them to the lowest risk subgroup. Subgroup correlates suggest parent and peer-based interventions may be successful. PMID:26370893

MANUSCRIPT IN PRESS: DEMENTIA & GERIATRIC COGNITIVE DISORDERS

PubMed Central

O’Bryant, Sid E.; Xiao, Guanghua; Barber, Robert; Cullum, C. Munro; Weiner, Myron; Hall, James; Edwards, Melissa; Grammas, Paula; Wilhelmsen, Kirk; Doody, Rachelle; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon

2015-01-01

Background Prior work on the link between blood-based biomarkers and cognitive status has largely been based on dichotomous classifications rather than detailed neuropsychological functioning. The current project was designed to create serum-based biomarker algorithms that predict neuropsychological test performance. Methods A battery of neuropsychological measures was administered. Random forest analyses were utilized to create neuropsychological test-specific biomarker risk scores in a training set that were entered into linear regression models predicting the respective test scores in the test set. Serum multiplex biomarker data were analyzed on 108 proteins from 395 participants (197 AD cases and 198 controls) from the Texas Alzheimer’s Research and Care Consortium. Results The biomarker risk scores were significant predictors (p<0.05) of scores on all neuropsychological tests. With the exception of premorbid intellectual status (6.6%), the biomarker risk scores alone accounted for a minimum of 12.9% of the variance in neuropsychological scores. Biomarker algorithms (biomarker risk scores + demographics) accounted for substantially more variance in scores. Review of the variable importance plots indicated differential patterns of biomarker significance for each test, suggesting the possibility of domain-specific biomarker algorithms. Conclusions Our findings provide proof-of-concept for a novel area of scientific discovery, which we term “molecular neuropsychology.” PMID:24107792

A Probabilistic Model for Cushing's Syndrome Screening in At-Risk Populations: A Prospective Multicenter Study.

PubMed

León-Justel, Antonio; Madrazo-Atutxa, Ainara; Alvarez-Rios, Ana I; Infantes-Fontán, Rocio; Garcia-Arnés, Juan A; Lillo-Muñoz, Juan A; Aulinas, Anna; Urgell-Rull, Eulàlia; Boronat, Mauro; Sánchez-de-Abajo, Ana; Fajardo-Montañana, Carmen; Ortuño-Alonso, Mario; Salinas-Vert, Isabel; Granada, Maria L; Cano, David A; Leal-Cerro, Alfonso

2016-10-01

Cushing's syndrome (CS) is challenging to diagnose. Increased prevalence of CS in specific patient populations has been reported, but routine screening for CS remains questionable. To decrease the diagnostic delay and improve disease outcomes, simple new screening methods for CS in at-risk populations are needed. To develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict CS based on clinical signs and an easy-to-use biochemical test. Observational, prospective, multicenter. Referral hospital. A cohort of 353 patients attending endocrinology units for outpatient visits. All patients were evaluated with late-night salivary cortisol (LNSC) and a low-dose dexamethasone suppression test for CS. Diagnosis or exclusion of CS. Twenty-six cases of CS were diagnosed in the cohort. A risk scoring system was developed by logistic regression analysis, and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. This risk score included clinical signs and symptoms (muscular atrophy, osteoporosis, and dorsocervical fat pad) and LNSC levels. The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93, with a sensitivity of 96.2% and specificity of 82.9%. We developed a risk score to predict CS in an at-risk population. This score may help to identify at-risk patients in non-endocrinological settings such as primary care, but external validation is warranted.

A simple risk score identifies individuals at high risk of developing Type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rahman, Mushtaqur; Simmons, Rebecca K; Harding, Anne-Helen; Wareham, Nicholas J; Griffin, Simon J

2008-06-01

Randomized trials have demonstrated that Type 2 diabetes is preventable among high-risk individuals. To date, such individuals have been identified through population screening using the oral glucose tolerance test. To assess whether a risk score comprising only routinely collected non-biochemical parameters was effective in identifying those at risk of developing Type 2 diabetes. Population-based prospective cohort (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk). Participants aged 40-79 recruited from UK general practices attended a health check between 1993 and 1998 (n = 25 639) and were followed for a mean of 5 years for diabetes incidence. The Cambridge Diabetes Risk Score was computed for 24 495 individuals with baseline data on age, sex, prescription of steroids and anti-hypertensive medication, family history of diabetes, body mass index and smoking status. We examined the incidence of diabetes across quintiles of the risk score and plotted a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to assess discrimination. There were 323 new cases of diabetes, a cumulative incidence of 2.76/1000 person-years. Those in the top quintile of risk were 22 times more likely to develop diabetes than those in the bottom quintile (odds ratio 22.3; 95% CI: 11.0-45.4). In all, 54% of all clinically incident cases occurred in individuals in the top quintile of risk (risk score > 0.37). The area under the ROC was 74.5%. The risk score is a simple, effective tool for the identification of those at risk of developing Type 2 diabetes. Such methods may be more feasible than mass population screening with biochemical tests in defining target populations for prevention programmes.

Inclusion of Endogenous Hormone Levels in Risk Prediction Models of Postmenopausal Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Tworoger, Shelley S.; Zhang, Xuehong; Eliassen, A. Heather; Qian, Jing; Colditz, Graham A.; Willett, Walter C.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Kraft, Peter; Hankinson, Susan E.

2014-01-01

Purpose Endogenous hormones are risk factors for postmenopausal breast cancer, and their measurement may improve our ability to identify high-risk women. Therefore, we evaluated whether inclusion of plasma estradiol, estrone, estrone sulfate, testosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, prolactin, and sex hormone–binding globulin (SHBG) improved risk prediction for postmenopausal invasive breast cancer (n = 437 patient cases and n = 775 controls not using postmenopausal hormones) in the Nurses' Health Study. Methods We evaluated improvement in the area under the curve (AUC) for 5-year risk of invasive breast cancer by adding each hormone to the Gail and Rosner-Colditz risk scores. We used stepwise regression to identify the subset of hormones most associated with risk and assessed AUC improvement; we used 10-fold cross validation to assess model overfitting. Results Each hormone was associated with breast cancer risk (odds ratio doubling, 0.82 [SHBG] to 1.37 [estrone sulfate]). Individual hormones improved the AUC by 1.3 to 5.2 units relative to the Gail score and 0.3 to 2.9 for the Rosner-Colditz score. Estrone sulfate, testosterone, and prolactin were selected by stepwise regression and increased the AUC by 5.9 units (P = .003) for the Gail score and 3.4 (P = .04) for the Rosner-Colditz score. In cross validation, the average AUC change across the validation data sets was 6.0 (P = .002) and 3.0 units (P = .03), respectively. Similar results were observed for estrogen receptor–positive disease (selected hormones: estrone sulfate, testosterone, prolactin, and SHBG; change in AUC, 8.8 [P < .001] for Gail score and 5.8 [P = .004] for Rosner-Colditz score). Conclusion Our results support that endogenous hormones improve risk prediction for invasive breast cancer and could help identify women who may benefit from chemoprevention or more screening. PMID:25135988

An evaluation of automatic coronary artery calcium scoring methods with cardiac CT using the orCaScore framework.

PubMed

Wolterink, Jelmer M; Leiner, Tim; de Vos, Bob D; Coatrieux, Jean-Louis; Kelm, B Michael; Kondo, Satoshi; Salgado, Rodrigo A; Shahzad, Rahil; Shu, Huazhong; Snoeren, Miranda; Takx, Richard A P; van Vliet, Lucas J; van Walsum, Theo; Willems, Tineke P; Yang, Guanyu; Zheng, Yefeng; Viergever, Max A; Išgum, Ivana

2016-05-01

The amount of coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a strong and independent predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. In clinical practice, CAC is manually identified and automatically quantified in cardiac CT using commercially available software. This is a tedious and time-consuming process in large-scale studies. Therefore, a number of automatic methods that require no interaction and semiautomatic methods that require very limited interaction for the identification of CAC in cardiac CT have been proposed. Thus far, a comparison of their performance has been lacking. The objective of this study was to perform an independent evaluation of (semi)automatic methods for CAC scoring in cardiac CT using a publicly available standardized framework. Cardiac CT exams of 72 patients distributed over four CVD risk categories were provided for (semi)automatic CAC scoring. Each exam consisted of a noncontrast-enhanced calcium scoring CT (CSCT) and a corresponding coronary CT angiography (CCTA) scan. The exams were acquired in four different hospitals using state-of-the-art equipment from four major CT scanner vendors. The data were divided into 32 training exams and 40 test exams. A reference standard for CAC in CSCT was defined by consensus of two experts following a clinical protocol. The framework organizers evaluated the performance of (semi)automatic methods on test CSCT scans, per lesion, artery, and patient. Five (semi)automatic methods were evaluated. Four methods used both CSCT and CCTA to identify CAC, and one method used only CSCT. The evaluated methods correctly detected between 52% and 94% of CAC lesions with positive predictive values between 65% and 96%. Lesions in distal coronary arteries were most commonly missed and aortic calcifications close to the coronary ostia were the most common false positive errors. The majority (between 88% and 98%) of correctly identified CAC lesions were assigned to the correct artery. Linearly weighted Cohen's kappa for patient CVD risk categorization by the evaluated methods ranged from 0.80 to 1.00. A publicly available standardized framework for the evaluation of (semi)automatic methods for CAC identification in cardiac CT is described. An evaluation of five (semi)automatic methods within this framework shows that automatic per patient CVD risk categorization is feasible. CAC lesions at ambiguous locations such as the coronary ostia remain challenging, but their detection had limited impact on CVD risk determination.

TU-FG-201-11: Evaluating the Validity of Prospective Risk Analysis Methods: A Comparison of Traditional FMEA and Modified Healthcare FMEA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lah, J; Manger, R; Kim, G

Purpose: To examine the ability of traditional Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and a light version of Healthcare FMEA (HFMEA), called Scenario analysis of FMEA (SAFER) by comparing their outputs in terms of the risks identified and their severity rankings. Methods: We applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation are based on risk priority number (RPN). RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity and detectability. The SAFER approach; utilized two indices-frequency and severity-which were defined by a multidisciplinarymore » team. A criticality matrix was divided into 4 categories; very low, low, high and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. Results: Two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks were matching or not. Our results showed an agreement of 67% between FMEA and SAFER approaches for the 15 riskiest SIG-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the failure modes (No.52, 54, 154) that have high SAFER scores do not necessarily have high FMEA RPN scores. In our results, there were additional risks identified by both methods with little correspondence. In the SAFER, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established decision tree or the failure mode should be more investigated. Conclusion: The FMEA method takes into account the probability that an error passes without being detected. SAFER is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allow the prioritization of risks and mitigation measures, and thus is perfectly applicable to clinical parts of radiotherapy.« less

Associations of CAIDE Dementia Risk Score with MRI, PIB-PET measures, and cognition

PubMed Central

Stephen, Ruth; Liu, Yawu; Ngandu, Tiia; Rinne, Juha O.; Kemppainen, Nina; Parkkola, Riitta; Laatikainen, Tiina; Paajanen, Teemu; Hänninen, Tuomo; Strandberg, Timo; Antikainen, Riitta; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Keinänen Kiukaanniemi, Sirkka; Vanninen, Ritva; Helisalmi, Seppo; Levälahti, Esko; Kivipelto, Miia; Soininen, Hilkka; Solomon, Alina

2017-01-01

Background: CAIDE Dementia Risk Score is the first validated tool for estimating dementia risk based on a midlife risk profile. Objectives: This observational study investigated longitudinal associations of CAIDE Dementia Risk Score with brain MRI, amyloid burden evaluated with PIB-PET, and detailed cognition measures. Methods: FINGER participants were at-risk elderly without dementia. CAIDE Risk Score was calculated using data from previous national surveys (mean age 52.4 years). In connection to baseline FINGER visit (on average 17.6 years later, mean age 70.1 years), 132 participants underwent MRI scans, and 48 underwent PIB-PET scans. All 1,260 participants were cognitively assessed (Neuropsychological Test Battery, NTB). Neuroimaging assessments included brain cortical thickness and volumes (Freesurfer 5.0.3), visually rated medial temporal atrophy (MTA), white matter lesions (WML), and amyloid accumulation. Results: Higher CAIDE Dementia Risk Score was related to more pronounced deep WML (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.05–1.43), lower total gray matter (β-coefficient –0.29, p = 0.001) and hippocampal volume (β-coefficient –0.28, p = 0.003), lower cortical thickness (β-coefficient –0.19, p = 0.042), and poorer cognition (β-coefficients –0.31 for total NTB score, –0.25 for executive functioning, –0.33 for processing speed, and –0.20 for memory, all p < 0.001). Higher CAIDE Dementia Risk Score including APOE genotype was additionally related to more pronounced MTA (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.00–1.30). No associations were found with periventricular WML or amyloid accumulation. Conclusions: The CAIDE Dementia Risk Score was related to indicators of cerebrovascular changes and neurodegeneration on MRI, and cognition. The lack of association with brain amyloid accumulation needs to be verified in studies with larger sample sizes. PMID:28671114

Identifying Patients With Vesicovaginal Fistula at High Risk of Urinary Incontinence After Surgery

PubMed Central

Bengtson, Angela M.; Kopp, Dawn; Tang, Jennifer H.; Chipungu, Ennet; Moyo, Margaret; Wilkinson, Jeffrey

2016-01-01

Objective To develop a risk score to identify women with vesicovaginal fistula at high risk of residual urinary incontinence after surgical repair. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study among 401 women undergoing their first vesicovaginal fistula repair at a referral fistula repair center in Lilongwe, Malawi, between September 2011 and December 2014, who returned for follow-up within 120 days of surgery. We used logistic regression to develop a risk score to identify women with high likelihood of residual urinary incontinence, defined as incontinence grade 2-5 within 120 days of vesicovaginal fistula repair, based on preoperative clinical and demographic characteristics (age, number of years with fistula, HIV status, body mass index, previous repair surgery at an outside facility, revised Goh Classification, Goh vesicovaginal fistula size, circumferential fistula, vaginal scaring, bladder size, and urethral length). The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the risk score at each cut-point were assessed. Results Overall, 11 (3%) women had unsuccessful fistula closure. Of those with successful fistula closure (n=372), 85 (23%) experienced residual incontinence. A risk score cut-point of 20 had sensitivity 82% (95% CI 72%, 89%) and specificity 63% (95% CI 57%, 69%) to potentially identify women with residual incontinence. In our population, the positive predictive value for a risk score cut-point of _20 or higher was 43% (95% CI 36%, 51%) and the negative predictive value was 91% (95% CI 86%, 94%). Forty-eight percent of our study population had a risk score ≥20 and therefore, would have been identified for further intervention. Conclusions A risk score 20 or higher was associated with an increased likelihood of residual incontinence, with satisfactory sensitivity and specificity. If validated in alternative settings, the risk score could be used to refer women with high likelihood of postoperative incontinence to more experienced surgeons. PMID:27741181

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys

PubMed Central

Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Al-Wotayan, Rihab; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A; Ahmadvand, Alireza; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bentham, James; Cifkova, Renata; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Eriksen, Louise; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferguson, Trevor S; Ikeda, Nayu; Khalili, Davood; Khang, Young-Ho; Lanska, Vera; León-Muñoz, Luz; Magliano, Dianna J; Margozzini, Paula; Msyamboza, Kelias P; Mutungi, Gerald; Oh, Kyungwon; Oum, Sophal; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Valdivia, Gonzalo; Wilks, Rainford; Shaw, Jonathan E; Stevens, Gretchen A; Tolstrup, Janne S; Zhou, Bin; Salomon, Joshua A; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, Goodarz

2017-01-01

Summary Background Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40–74 years. Methods Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40–64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. Findings Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40–64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ≥20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes. Interpretation Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements. PMID:28126460

Analysis of risk factors for postoperative morbidity in perforated peptic ulcer.

PubMed

Kim, Jae-Myung; Jeong, Sang-Ho; Lee, Young-Joon; Park, Soon-Tae; Choi, Sang-Kyung; Hong, Soon-Chan; Jung, Eun-Jung; Ju, Young-Tae; Jeong, Chi-Young; Ha, Woo-Song

2012-03-01

Emergency operations for perforated peptic ulcer are associated with a high incidence of postoperative complications. While several studies have investigated the impact of perioperative risk factors and underlying diseases on the postoperative morbidity after abdominal surgery, only a few have analyzed their role in perforated peptic ulcer disease. The purpose of this study was to determine any possible associations between postoperative morbidity and comorbid disease or perioperative risk factors in perforated peptic ulcer. In total, 142 consecutive patients, who underwent surgery for perforated peptic ulcer, at a single institution, between January 2005 and October 2010 were included in this study. The clinical data concerning the patient characteristics, operative methods, and complications were collected retrospectively. The postoperative morbidity rate associated with perforated peptic ulcer operations was 36.6% (52/142). Univariate analysis revealed that a long operating time, the open surgical method, age (≥60), sex (female), high American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score and presence of preoperative shock were significant perioperative risk factors for postoperative morbidity. Significant comorbid risk factors included hypertension, diabetes mellitus and pulmonary disease. Multivariate analysis revealed a long operating time, the open surgical method, high ASA score and the presence of preoperative shock were all independent risk factors for the postoperative morbidity in perforated peptic ulcer. A high ASA score, preoperative shock, open surgery and long operating time of more than 150 minutes are high risk factors for morbidity. However, there is no association between postoperative morbidity and comorbid disease in patients with a perforated peptic ulcer.

Genetic Predisposition to Ischemic Stroke

PubMed Central

Kamatani, Yoichiro; Takahashi, Atsushi; Hata, Jun; Furukawa, Ryohei; Shiwa, Yuh; Yamaji, Taiki; Hara, Megumi; Tanno, Kozo; Ohmomo, Hideki; Ono, Kanako; Takashima, Naoyuki; Matsuda, Koichi; Wakai, Kenji; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Ago, Tetsuro; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Fukushima, Akimune; Hozawa, Atsushi; Minegishi, Naoko; Satoh, Mamoru; Endo, Ryujin; Sasaki, Makoto; Sakata, Kiyomi; Kobayashi, Seiichiro; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Nakamura, Motoyuki; Hitomi, Jiro; Kita, Yoshikuni; Tanaka, Keitaro; Iso, Hiroyasu; Kitazono, Takanari; Kubo, Michiaki; Tanaka, Hideo; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Yamamoto, Masayuki; Sobue, Kenji; Shimizu, Atsushi

2017-01-01

Background and Purpose— The prediction of genetic predispositions to ischemic stroke (IS) may allow the identification of individuals at elevated risk and thereby prevent IS in clinical practice. Previously developed weighted multilocus genetic risk scores showed limited predictive ability for IS. Here, we investigated the predictive ability of a newer method, polygenic risk score (polyGRS), based on the idea that a few strong signals, as well as several weaker signals, can be collectively informative to determine IS risk. Methods— We genotyped 13 214 Japanese individuals with IS and 26 470 controls (derivation samples) and generated both multilocus genetic risk scores and polyGRS, using the same derivation data set. The predictive abilities of each scoring system were then assessed using 2 independent sets of Japanese samples (KyushuU and JPJM data sets). Results— In both validation data sets, polyGRS was shown to be significantly associated with IS, but weighted multilocus genetic risk scores was not. Comparing the highest with the lowest polyGRS quintile, the odds ratios for IS were 1.75 (95% confidence interval, 1.33–2.31) and 1.99 (95% confidence interval, 1.19–3.33) in the KyushuU and JPJM samples, respectively. Using the KyushuU samples, the addition of polyGRS to a nongenetic risk model resulted in a significant improvement of the predictive ability (net reclassification improvement=0.151; P<0.001). Conclusions— The polyGRS was shown to be superior to weighted multilocus genetic risk scores as an IS prediction model. Thus, together with the nongenetic risk factors, polyGRS will provide valuable information for individual risk assessment and management of modifiable risk factors. PMID:28034966

Feature Selection for Ridge Regression with Provable Guarantees.

PubMed

Paul, Saurabh; Drineas, Petros

2016-04-01

We introduce single-set spectral sparsification as a deterministic sampling-based feature selection technique for regularized least-squares classification, which is the classification analog to ridge regression. The method is unsupervised and gives worst-case guarantees of the generalization power of the classification function after feature selection with respect to the classification function obtained using all features. We also introduce leverage-score sampling as an unsupervised randomized feature selection method for ridge regression. We provide risk bounds for both single-set spectral sparsification and leverage-score sampling on ridge regression in the fixed design setting and show that the risk in the sampled space is comparable to the risk in the full-feature space. We perform experiments on synthetic and real-world data sets; a subset of TechTC-300 data sets, to support our theory. Experimental results indicate that the proposed methods perform better than the existing feature selection methods.

Fingerprinting of music scores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irons, Jonathan; Schmucker, Martin

2004-06-01

Publishers of sheet music are generally reluctant in distributing their content via the Internet. Although online sheet music distribution's advantages are numerous the potential risk of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) infringement, e.g. illegal online distributions, disables any innovation propensity. While active protection techniques only deter external risk factors, additional technology is necessary to adequately treat further risk factors. For several media types including music scores watermarking technology has been developed, which ebeds information in data by suitable data modifications. Furthermore, fingerprinting or perceptual hasing methods have been developed and are being applied especially for audio. These methods allow the identification of content without prior modifications. In this article we motivate the development of watermarking and fingerprinting technologies for sheet music. Outgoing from potential limitations of watermarking methods we explain why fingerprinting methods are important for sheet music and address potential applications. Finally we introduce a condept for fingerprinting of sheet music.

Evaluating the Laboratory Risk Indicator to Differentiate Cellulitis from Necrotizing Fasciitis in the Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Neeki, Michael M.; Dong, Fanglong; Au, Christine; Toy, Jake; Khoshab, Nima; Lee, Carol; Kwong, Eugene; Yuen, Ho Wang; Lee, Jonathan; Ayvazian, Arbi; Lux, Pamela; Borger, Rodney

2017-01-01

Introduction Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is an uncommon but rapidly progressive infection that results in gross morbidity and mortality if not treated in its early stages. The Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (LRINEC) score is used to distinguish NF from other soft tissue infections such as cellulitis or abscess. This study analyzed the ability of the LRINEC score to accurately rule out NF in patients who were confirmed to have cellulitis, as well as the capability to differentiate cellulitis from NF. Methods This was a 10-year retrospective chart-review study that included emergency department (ED) patients ≥18 years old with a diagnosis of cellulitis or NF. We calculated a LRINEC score ranging from 0–13 for each patient with all pertinent laboratory values. Three categories were developed per the original LRINEC score guidelines denoting NF risk stratification: high risk (LRINEC score ≥8), moderate risk (LRINEC score 6–7), and low risk (LRINEC score ≤5). All cases missing laboratory values were due to the absence of a C-reactive protein (CRP) value. Since the score for a negative or positive CRP value for the LRINEC score was 0 or 4 respectively, a LRINEC score of 0 or 1 without a CRP value would have placed the patient in the “low risk” group and a LRINEC score of 8 or greater without CRP value would have placed the patient in the “high risk” group. These patients missing CRP values were added to these respective groups. Results Among the 948 ED patients with cellulitis, more than one-tenth (10.7%, n=102 of 948) were moderate or high risk for NF based on LRINEC score. Of the 135 ED patients with a diagnosis of NF, 22 patients had valid CRP laboratory values and LRINEC scores were calculated. Among the other 113 patients without CRP values, six patients had a LRINEC score ≥ 8, and 19 patients had a LRINEC score ≤ 1. Thus, a total of 47 patients were further classified based on LRINEC score without a CRP value. More than half of the NF group (63.8%, n=30 of 47) had a low risk based on LRINEC ≤5. Moreover, LRINEC appeared to perform better in the diabetes population than in the non-diabetes population. Conclusion The LRINEC score may not be an accurate tool for NF risk stratification and differentiation between cellulitis and NF in the ED setting. This decision instrument demonstrated a high false positive rate when determining NF risk stratification in confirmed cases of cellulitis and a high false negative rate in cases of confirmed NF. PMID:28611889

A population-based study of tumor gene expression and risk of breast cancer death among lymph node-negative patients

PubMed Central

Habel, Laurel A; Shak, Steven; Jacobs, Marlena K; Capra, Angela; Alexander, Claire; Pho, Mylan; Baker, Joffre; Walker, Michael; Watson, Drew; Hackett, James; Blick, Noelle T; Greenberg, Deborah; Fehrenbacher, Louis; Langholz, Bryan; Quesenberry, Charles P

2006-01-01

Introduction The Oncotype DX assay was recently reported to predict risk for distant recurrence among a clinical trial population of tamoxifen-treated patients with lymph node-negative, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. To confirm and extend these findings, we evaluated the performance of this 21-gene assay among node-negative patients from a community hospital setting. Methods A case-control study was conducted among 4,964 Kaiser Permanente patients diagnosed with node-negative invasive breast cancer from 1985 to 1994 and not treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Cases (n = 220) were patients who died from breast cancer. Controls (n = 570) were breast cancer patients who were individually matched to cases with respect to age, race, adjuvant tamoxifen, medical facility and diagnosis year, and were alive at the date of death of their matched case. Using an RT-PCR assay, archived tumor tissues were analyzed for expression levels of 16 cancer-related and five reference genes, and a summary risk score (the Recurrence Score) was calculated for each patient. Conditional logistic regression methods were used to estimate the association between risk of breast cancer death and Recurrence Score. Results After adjusting for tumor size and grade, the Recurrence Score was associated with risk of breast cancer death in ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated and -untreated patients (P = 0.003 and P = 0.03, respectively). At 10 years, the risks for breast cancer death in ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated patients were 2.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7–3.9%), 10.7% (95% CI 6.3–14.9%), and 15.5% (95% CI 7.6–22.8%) for those in the low, intermediate and high risk Recurrence Score groups, respectively. They were 6.2% (95% CI 4.5–7.9%), 17.8% (95% CI 11.8–23.3%), and 19.9% (95% CI 14.2–25.2%) for ER-positive patients not treated with tamoxifen. In both the tamoxifen-treated and -untreated groups, approximately 50% of patients had low risk Recurrence Score values. Conclusion In this large, population-based study of lymph node-negative patients not treated with chemotherapy, the Recurrence Score was strongly associated with risk of breast cancer death among ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated and -untreated patients. PMID:16737553

Cardiovascular risk estimation in women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term: a longitudinal follow-up study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease is associated with major morbidity and mortality in women in the Western world. Prediction of an individual cardiovascular disease risk in young women is difficult. It is known that women with hypertensive pregnancy complications have an increased risk for developing cardiovascular disease in later life and pregnancy might be used as a cardiovascular stress test to identify women who are at high risk for cardiovascular disease. In this study we assess the possibility of long term cardiovascular risk prediction in women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term. Methods In a longitudinal follow-up study, between June 2008 and November 2010, 300 women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term (HTP cohort) and 94 women with a history of normotensive pregnancies at term (NTP cohort) were included. From the cardiovascular risk status that was known two years after index pregnancy we calculated individual (extrapolated) 10-and 30-year cardiovascular event risks using four different risk prediction models including the Framingham risk score, the SCORE score and the Reynolds risk score. Continuous data were analyzed using the Student’s T test and Mann–Whitney U test and categorical data by the Chi-squared test. A poisson regression analysis was performed to calculate the incidence risk ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals for the different cardiovascular risk estimation categories. Results After a mean follow-up of 2.5 years, HTP women had significantly higher mean (SD) extrapolated 10-year cardiovascular event risks (HTP 7.2% (3.7); NTP 4.4% (1.9) (p<.001, IRR 5.8, 95% CI 1.9 to 19)) and 30-year cardiovascular event risks (HTP 11% (7.6); NTP 7.3% (3.5) (p<.001, IRR 2.7, 95% CI 1.6 to 4.5)) as compared to NTP women calculated by the Framingham risk scores. The SCORE score and the Reynolds risk score showed similar significant results. Conclusions Women with a history of gestational hypertension or preeclampsia at term have higher predicted (extrapolated) 10-year and 30-year cardiovascular event risks as compared to women with a history of uncomplicated pregnancies. Further large prospective studies have to evaluate whether hypertensive pregnancy disorders have to be included as an independent variable in cardiovascular risk prediction models for women. PMID:23734952

A Simulation-Based Comparison of Several Stochastic Linear Regression Methods in the Presence of Outliers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rule, David L.

Several regression methods were examined within the framework of weighted structural regression (WSR), comparing their regression weight stability and score estimation accuracy in the presence of outlier contamination. The methods compared are: (1) ordinary least squares; (2) WSR ridge regression; (3) minimum risk regression; (4) minimum risk 2;…

Trauma Exposure, PTSD, and HIV Sexual Risk Behaviors among Labor Migrants from Tajikistan

PubMed Central

Weine, Stevan; Bahromov, Mahbat; Loue, Sana; Owens, Linda

2012-01-01

Little is known about the role of trauma and PTSD symptoms in the context of migration-associated HIV risk behaviors. A survey of Tajik married male seasonal labor migrants in Moscow was completed by 200 workers from 4 bazaars and 200 workers from 18 construction sites as part of a mixed method (quantitative and qualitative) study. The mean PC-PTSD score was 1.2 with one-quarter of migrants scoring at or above the cutoff of 3 indicating likely PTSD diagnosis. PC-PTSD score was directly correlated with both direct and indirect trauma exposure, but PC-PTSD score did not predict either HIV sexual risk behaviors or HIV protective behaviors. HIV sexual risk behavior was associated with higher indirect trauma exposure. PC-PTSD score was associated with some indicators of increased caution (e.g. more talking with partners about HIV and condoms; more use of condom when drinking). Qualitative findings were used to illustrate the differences between direct and indirect traumas in terms of HIV sexual risk. The study findings call for future efforts to address labor migrant's mental health needs and to integrate trauma dimensions into HIV prevention. PMID:22261829

Trauma exposure, PTSD, and HIV sexual risk behaviors among labor migrants from Tajikistan.

PubMed

Weine, Stevan; Bahromov, Mahbat; Loue, Sana; Owens, Linda

2012-08-01

Little is known about the role of trauma and PTSD symptoms in the context of migration-associated HIV risk behaviors. A survey of Tajik married male seasonal labor migrants in Moscow was completed by 200 workers from 4 bazaars and 200 workers from 18 construction sites as part of a mixed method (quantitative and qualitative) study. The mean PC-PTSD score was 1.2 with one-quarter of migrants scoring at or above the cutoff of 3 indicating likely PTSD diagnosis. PC-PTSD score was directly correlated with both direct and indirect trauma exposure, but PC-PTSD score did not predict either HIV sexual risk behaviors or HIV protective behaviors. HIV sexual risk behavior was associated with higher indirect trauma exposure. PC-PTSD score was associated with some indicators of increased caution (e.g., more talking with partners about HIV and condoms; more use of condom when drinking). Qualitative findings were used to illustrate the differences between direct and indirect traumas in terms of HIV sexual risk. The study findings call for future efforts to address labor migrant's mental health needs and to integrate trauma dimensions into HIV prevention.

GRECOS project. The use of genetics to predict the vascular recurrence after stroke

PubMed Central

Fernández-Cadenas, Israel; Mendióroz, Maite; Giralt, Dolors; Nafria, Cristina; Garcia, Elena; Carrera, Caty; Gallego-Fabrega, Cristina; Domingues-Montanari, Sophie; Delgado, Pilar; Ribó, Marc; Castellanos, Mar; Martínez, Sergi; Freijo, Mari Mar; Jiménez-Conde, Jordi; Rubiera, Marta; Alvarez-Sabín, José; Molina, Carlos A.; Font, Maria Angels; Olivares, Marta Grau; Palomeras, Ernest; de la Ossa, Natalia Perez; Martinez-Zabaleta, Maite; Masjuan, Jaime; Moniche, Francisco; Canovas, David; Piñana, Carlos; Purroy, Francisco; Cocho, Dolores; Navas, Inma; Tejero, Carlos; Aymerich, Nuria; Cullell, Natalia; Muiño, Elena; Serena, Joaquín; Rubio, Francisco; Davalos, Antoni; Roquer, Jaume; Arenillas, Juan Francisco; Martí-Fábregas, Joan; Keene, Keith; Chen, Wei-Min; Worrall, Bradford; Sale, Michele; Arboix, Adrià; Krupinski, Jerzy; Montaner, Joan

2017-01-01

Background and Purpose Vascular recurrence occurs in 11% of patients during the first year after ischemic stroke (IS) or transient ischemic attack (TIA). Clinical scores do not predict the whole vascular recurrence risk, therefore we aimed to find genetic variants associated with recurrence that might improve the clinical predictive models in IS. Methods We analyzed 256 polymorphisms from 115 candidate genes in three patient cohorts comprising 4,482 IS or TIA patients. The discovery cohort was prospectively recruited and included 1,494 patients, 6.2% of them developed a new IS during the first year of follow-up. Replication analysis was performed in 2,988 patients using SNPlex or HumanOmni1-Quad technology. We generated a predictive model using Cox regression (GRECOS score), and generated risk groups using a classification tree method. Results The analyses revealed that rs1800801 in the MGP gene (HR: 1.33, p= 9×10−03), a gene related to artery calcification, was associated with new IS during the first year of follow-up. This polymorphism was replicated in a Spanish cohort (n=1.305), however it was not significantly associated in a North American cohort (n=1.683). The GRECOS score predicted new IS (p= 3.2×10−09) and could classify patients, from low risk of stroke recurrence (1.9%) to high risk (12.6%). Moreover, the addition of genetic risk factors to the GRECOS score improves the prediction compared to previous SPI-II score (p=0.03). Conclusions The use of genetics could be useful to estimate vascular recurrence risk after IS. Genetic variability in the MGP gene was associated with vascular recurrence in the Spanish population. PMID:28411264

Predicting the Risk of Clostridium difficile Infection upon Admission: A Score to Identify Patients for Antimicrobial Stewardship Efforts.

PubMed

Kuntz, Jennifer L; Smith, David H; Petrik, Amanda F; Yang, Xiuhai; Thorp, Micah L; Barton, Tracy; Barton, Karen; Labreche, Matthew; Spindel, Steven J; Johnson, Eric S

2016-01-01

Increasing morbidity and health care costs related to Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) have heightened interest in methods to identify patients who would most benefit from interventions to mitigate the likelihood of CDI. To develop a risk score that can be calculated upon hospital admission and used by antimicrobial stewards, including pharmacists and clinicians, to identify patients at risk for CDI who would benefit from enhanced antibiotic review and patient education. We assembled a cohort of Kaiser Permanente Northwest patients with a hospital admission from July 1, 2005, through December 30, 2012, and identified CDI in the six months following hospital admission. Using Cox regression, we constructed a score to identify patients at high risk for CDI on the basis of preadmission characteristics. We calculated and plotted the observed six-month CDI risk for each decile of predicted risk. We identified 721 CDIs following 54,186 hospital admissions-a 6-month incidence of 13.3 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. Patients with the highest predicted risk of CDI had an observed incidence of 53 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. The score differentiated between patients who do and do not develop CDI, with values for the extended C-statistic of 0.75. Predicted risk for CDI agreed closely with observed risk. Our risk score accurately predicted six-month risk for CDI using preadmission characteristics. Accurate predictions among the highest-risk patient subgroups allow for the identification of patients who could be targeted for and who would likely benefit from review of inpatient antibiotic use or enhanced educational efforts at the time of discharge planning.

A prospective study evaluating duration of swine breeding herd PRRS virus-free status and its relationship with measured risk.

PubMed

Holtkamp, Derald J; Yeske, Paul E; Polson, Dale D; Melody, Jamie L; Philips, Reid C

2010-09-01

A variety of methods for eliminating the PRRS virus from pig production sites have been successfully applied. However, success in maintaining a PRRS virus-free status for extended periods of time following elimination has been inconsistent and unpredictable. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether risks measured using version 1 of the American Association of Swine Veterinarians (AASV) PRRS Risk Assessment for the Breeding Herd, season of year and method by which swine breeding herd sites were established PRRS virus-free were associated with how long they retained their virus-free status. Thirty-three swine farrow-to-wean breeding herd sites that were established as PRRS virus-free by either populating a new site with virus-free breeding animals or by completely depopulating the site and repopulating with PRRS virus-free breeding animals were enrolled in this study. Survival analysis, using the Cox proportional hazards model and Kaplan-Meier survival curves, was performed where the outcome was the duration of time PRRS virus-free breeding herd sites remained virus-free ("survived"). Covariates evaluated included the internal and external risk scores measured by the PRRS Risk Assessment for the Breeding Herd as well as the season and the method by which the site was established free of the PRRS virus. All but 5 (15%) of the 33 sites became positive to the PRRS virus during the course of the study and approximately 40% became positive within 1 year from when they were established free of the PRRS virus. A higher external risk score was associated with a greater risk of becoming positive to the PRRS virus and shorter survival times. The internal risk score was not significantly associated with survival. Establishing breeding herd sites free of the PRRS virus in winter months (November through February) was associated with a greater risk of becoming positive to the PRRS virus and shorter survival times compared to those established in non-winter months. The association between the risk of becoming positive to the PRRS virus and the external risk score was confounded by the method the site was established PRRS virus-free. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pre-test probability of obstructive coronary stenosis in patients undergoing coronary CT angiography: Comparative performance of the modified diamond-Forrester algorithm versus methods incorporating cardiovascular risk factors.

PubMed

Ferreira, António Miguel; Marques, Hugo; Tralhão, António; Santos, Miguel Borges; Santos, Ana Rita; Cardoso, Gonçalo; Dores, Hélder; Carvalho, Maria Salomé; Madeira, Sérgio; Machado, Francisco Pereira; Cardim, Nuno; de Araújo Gonçalves, Pedro

2016-11-01

Current guidelines recommend the use of the Modified Diamond-Forrester (MDF) method to assess the pre-test likelihood of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). We aimed to compare the performance of the MDF method with two contemporary algorithms derived from multicenter trials that additionally incorporate cardiovascular risk factors: the calculator-based 'CAD Consortium 2' method, and the integer-based CONFIRM score. We assessed 1069 consecutive patients without known CAD undergoing coronary CT angiography (CCTA) for stable chest pain. Obstructive CAD was defined as the presence of coronary stenosis ≥50% on 64-slice dual-source CT. The three methods were assessed for calibration, discrimination, net reclassification, and changes in proposed downstream testing based upon calculated pre-test likelihoods. The observed prevalence of obstructive CAD was 13.8% (n=147). Overestimations of the likelihood of obstructive CAD were 140.1%, 9.8%, and 18.8%, respectively, for the MDF, CAD Consortium 2 and CONFIRM methods. The CAD Consortium 2 showed greater discriminative power than the MDF method, with a C-statistic of 0.73 vs. 0.70 (p<0.001), while the CONFIRM score did not (C-statistic 0.71, p=0.492). Reclassification of pre-test likelihood using the 'CAD Consortium 2' or CONFIRM scores resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 0.19 and 0.18, respectively, which would change the diagnostic strategy in approximately half of the patients. Newer risk factor-encompassing models allow for a more precise estimation of pre-test probabilities of obstructive CAD than the guideline-recommended MDF method. Adoption of these scores may improve disease prediction and change the diagnostic pathway in a significant proportion of patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular risk assessment in rheumatoid arthritis – controversies and the new approach

PubMed Central

Głuszko, Piotr

2016-01-01

The current methods of cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment in the course of inflammatory connective tissue diseases are a subject of considerable controversy. Comparing different methods of CV risk assessment in current rheumatoid arthritis (RA) guidelines, only a few of them recommend the use of formal risk calculators. These are the EULAR guidelines suggesting the use of SCORE and the British Society for Rheumatology guidelines performed in collaboration with NICE preferring the use of QRISK-2. Analyzing the latest American and British reports, two main concepts could be identified. The first one is to focus on risk calculators developed for the general population taking into account RA, and the calculator that might fulfill this role is the new QRISK-2 presented by NICE in 2014. The second concept is to create RA-specific risk calculators, such as the Expanded Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Score for RA. In this review we also discuss the efficiency of a new Pooled Cohort Equation and other calculators in the general and RA population. PMID:27504023

A point-based prediction model for cardiovascular risk in orthotopic liver transplantation: The CAR-OLT score.

PubMed

VanWagner, Lisa B; Ning, Hongyan; Whitsett, Maureen; Levitsky, Josh; Uttal, Sarah; Wilkins, John T; Abecassis, Michael M; Ladner, Daniela P; Skaro, Anton I; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M

2017-12-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) complications are important causes of morbidity and mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). There is currently no preoperative risk-assessment tool that allows physicians to estimate the risk for CVD events following OLT. We sought to develop a point-based prediction model (risk score) for CVD complications after OLT, the Cardiovascular Risk in Orthotopic Liver Transplantation risk score, among a cohort of 1,024 consecutive patients aged 18-75 years who underwent first OLT in a tertiary-care teaching hospital (2002-2011). The main outcome measures were major 1-year CVD complications, defined as death from a CVD cause or hospitalization for a major CVD event (myocardial infarction, revascularization, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, cardiac arrest, pulmonary embolism, and/or stroke). The bootstrap method yielded bias-corrected 95% confidence intervals for the regression coefficients of the final model. Among 1,024 first OLT recipients, major CVD complications occurred in 329 (32.1%). Variables selected for inclusion in the model (using model optimization strategies) included preoperative recipient age, sex, race, employment status, education status, history of hepatocellular carcinoma, diabetes, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, pulmonary or systemic hypertension, and respiratory failure. The discriminative performance of the point-based score (C statistic = 0.78, bias-corrected C statistic = 0.77) was superior to other published risk models for postoperative CVD morbidity and mortality, and it had appropriate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.33). The point-based risk score can identify patients at risk for CVD complications after OLT surgery (available at www.carolt.us); this score may be useful for identification of candidates for further risk stratification or other management strategies to improve CVD outcomes after OLT. (Hepatology 2017;66:1968-1979). © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Validating a benchmarking tool for audit of early outcomes after operations for head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Tighe, D; Sassoon, I; McGurk, M

2017-04-01

INTRODUCTION In 2013 all UK surgical specialties, with the exception of head and neck surgery, published outcome data adjusted for case mix for indicator operations. This paper reports a pilot study to validate a previously published risk adjustment score on patients from separate UK cancer centres. METHODS A case note audit was performed of 1,075 patients undergoing 1,218 operations for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma under general anaesthesia in 4 surgical centres. A logistic regression equation predicting for all complications, previously validated internally at sites A-C, was tested on a fourth external validation sample (site D, 172 operations) using receiver operating characteristic curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit analysis and Brier scores. RESULTS Thirty-day complication rates varied widely (34-51%) between the centres. The predictive score allowed imperfect risk adjustment (area under the curve: 0.70), with Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis suggesting good calibration. The Brier score changed from 0.19 for sites A-C to 0.23 when site D was also included, suggesting poor accuracy overall. CONCLUSIONS Marked differences in operative risk and patient case mix captured by the risk adjustment score do not explain all the differences in observed outcomes. Further investigation with different methods is recommended to improve modelling of risk. Morbidity is common, and usually has a major impact on patient recovery, ward occupancy, hospital finances and patient perception of quality of care. We hope comparative audit will highlight good performance and challenge underperformance where it exists.

Validating a benchmarking tool for audit of early outcomes after operations for head and neck cancer

PubMed Central

Sassoon, I; McGurk, M

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION In 2013 all UK surgical specialties, with the exception of head and neck surgery, published outcome data adjusted for case mix for indicator operations. This paper reports a pilot study to validate a previously published risk adjustment score on patients from separate UK cancer centres. METHODS A case note audit was performed of 1,075 patients undergoing 1,218 operations for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma under general anaesthesia in 4 surgical centres. A logistic regression equation predicting for all complications, previously validated internally at sites A–C, was tested on a fourth external validation sample (site D, 172 operations) using receiver operating characteristic curves, Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit analysis and Brier scores. RESULTS Thirty-day complication rates varied widely (34–51%) between the centres. The predictive score allowed imperfect risk adjustment (area under the curve: 0.70), with Hosmer–Lemeshow analysis suggesting good calibration. The Brier score changed from 0.19 for sites A–C to 0.23 when site D was also included, suggesting poor accuracy overall. CONCLUSIONS Marked differences in operative risk and patient case mix captured by the risk adjustment score do not explain all the differences in observed outcomes. Further investigation with different methods is recommended to improve modelling of risk. Morbidity is common, and usually has a major impact on patient recovery, ward occupancy, hospital finances and patient perception of quality of care. We hope comparative audit will highlight good performance and challenge underperformance where it exists. PMID:27917662

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

PubMed Central

Rücker, Viktoria; Keil, Ulrich; Fitzgerald, Anthony P; Malzahn, Uwe; Prugger, Christof; Ertl, Georg; Heuschmann, Peter U; Neuhauser, Hannelore

2016-01-01

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk. PMID:27612145

Increased preference of surface ablation over laser in situ keratomileusis between 2008–2011 is correlated to risk of ecatasia

PubMed Central

Moisseiev, Elad; Sela, Tzahi; Minkev, Liza; Varssano, David

2013-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the trends in corneal refractive procedure selection for the correction of myopia, focusing on the relative proportions of laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) and surface ablation procedures. Methods Only eyes that underwent LASIK or surface ablation for the correction of myopia between 2008–2011 were included in this retrospective study. Additional recorded parameters included patient age, preoperative manifest refraction, corneal thickness, and calculated residual corneal bed thickness. A risk score was given to each eye, based on these parameters, according to the Ectasia Risk Factor Score System (ERFSS), without the preoperative corneal topography. Results This study included 16,163 eyes, of which 38.4% underwent LASIK and 61.6% underwent surface ablation. The risk score correlated with procedure selection, with LASIK being preferred in eyes with a score of 0 and surface ablation in eyes with a score of 2 or higher. When controlling for age, preoperative manifest refraction, corneal thickness, and all parameters, the relative proportion of surface ablation compared with LASIK was found to have grown significantly during the study period. Conclusions Our results indicate that with time, surface ablation tended to be performed more often than LASIK for the correction of myopia in our cohort. Increased awareness of risk factors and preoperative risk assessment tools, such as the ERFSS, have shifted the current practice of refractive surgery from LASIK towards surface ablation despite the former’s advantages, especially in cases in which the risk for ectasia is more than minimal (risk score 2 and higher). PMID:23345963

Age at natural menopause genetic risk score in relation to age at natural menopause and primary open-angle glaucoma in a US-based sample

PubMed Central

Pasquale, Louis R.; Aschard, Hugues; Kang, Jae H.; Bailey, Jessica N. Cooke; Lindström, Sara; Chasman, Daniel I.; Christen, William G.; Allingham, R. Rand; Ashley-Koch, Allison; Lee, Richard K.; Moroi, Sayoko E.; Brilliant, Murray H.; Wollstein, Gadi; Schuman, Joel S.; Fingert, John; Budenz, Donald L.; Realini, Tony; Gaasterland, Terry; Gaasterland, Douglas; Scott, William K.; Singh, Kuldev; Sit, Arthur J.; Igo, Robert P.; Song, Yeunjoo E.; Hark, Lisa; Ritch, Robert; Rhee, Douglas J.; Gulati, Vikas; Havens, Shane; Vollrath, Douglas; Zack, Donald J.; Medeiros, Felipe; Weinreb, Robert N.; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A.; Liu, Yutao; Kraft, Peter; Richards, Julia E.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Hauser, Michael A.; Haines, Jonathan L.; Wiggs, Janey L.

2017-01-01

Abstract Objective: Several attributes of female reproductive history, including age at natural menopause (ANM), have been related to primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). We assembled 18 previously reported common genetic variants that predict ANM to determine their association with ANM or POAG. Methods: Using data from the Nurses’ Health Study (7,143 women), we validated the ANM weighted genetic risk score in relation to self-reported ANM. Subsequently, to assess the relation with POAG, we used data from 2,160 female POAG cases and 29,110 controls in the National Eye Institute Glaucoma Human Genetics Collaboration Heritable Overall Operational Database (NEIGHBORHOOD), which consists of 8 datasets with imputed genotypes to 5.6+ million markers. Associations with POAG were assessed in each dataset, and site-specific results were meta-analyzed using the inverse weighted variance method. Results: The genetic risk score was associated with self-reported ANM (P = 2.2 × 10–77) and predicted 4.8% of the variance in ANM. The ANM genetic risk score was not associated with POAG (Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.002; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.998, 1.007; P = 0.28). No single genetic variant in the panel achieved nominal association with POAG (P ≥0.20). Compared to the middle 80 percent, there was also no association with the lowest 10th percentile or highest 90th percentile of genetic risk score with POAG (OR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.47, 1.21; P = 0.23 and OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 0.72, 1.69; P = 0.65, respectively). Conclusions: A genetic risk score predicting 4.8% of ANM variation was not related to POAG; thus, genetic determinants of ANM are unlikely to explain the previously reported association between the two phenotypes. PMID:27760082

Predicting the need for institutional care shortly after admission to rehabilitation: Rasch analysis and predictive validity of the BRASS Index.

PubMed

Panella, L; La Porta, F; Caselli, S; Marchisio, S; Tennant, A

2012-09-01

Effective discharge planning is increasingly recognised as a critical component of hospital-based Rehabilitation. The BRASS index is a risk screening tool for identification, shortly after hospital admission, of patients who are at risk of post-discharge problems. To evaluate the internal construct validity and reliability of the Blaylock Risk Assessment Screening Score (BRASS) within the rehabilitation setting. Observational prospective study. Rehabilitation ward of an Italian district hospital. One hundred and four consecutively admitted patients. Using classical psychometric methods and Rasch analysis (RA), the internal construct validity and reliability of the BRASS were examined. Also, external and predictive validity of the Rasch-modified BRASS (RMB) score were determined. Reliability of the original BRASS was low (Cronbach's alpha=0.595) and factor analyses showed that it was clearly multidimensional. A RA, based on a reduced 7-BRASS item set (RMB), satisfied model's expectations. Reliability was 0.777. The RMB scores strongly correlated with the original BRASS (rho=0.952; P<0.000) and with FIM™ admission scores (rho=-0.853; P<0.000). A RMB score of 12 was associated with an increased risk of nursing home admission (RR=2.1, 95%CI=1.7-2.5), whereas a score of 17 was associated to a higher risk of length of stay >28 days (RR=7.6, 95%CI=1.8-31.9). This study demonstrated that the original BRASS was multidimensional and unreliable. However, the RMB holds adequate internal construct validity and is sufficiently reliable as a predictor of discharge problems for group, but not individual use. The application of tools and methods (such as the BRASS Index) developed under the biomedical paradigm in a Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine setting may have limitations. Further research is needed to develop, within the rehabilitation setting, a valid measuring tool of risk of post-discharge problems at the individual level.

Reader performance in visual assessment of breast density using visual analogue scales: Are some readers more predictive of breast cancer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rayner, Millicent; Harkness, Elaine F.; Foden, Philip; Wilson, Mary; Gadde, Soujanya; Beetles, Ursula; Lim, Yit Y.; Jain, Anil; Bundred, Sally; Barr, Nicky; Evans, D. Gareth; Howell, Anthony; Maxwell, Anthony; Astley, Susan M.

2018-03-01

Mammographic breast density is one of the strongest risk factors for breast cancer, and is used in risk prediction and for deciding appropriate imaging strategies. In the Predicting Risk Of Cancer At Screening (PROCAS) study, percent density estimated by two readers on Visual Analogue Scales (VAS) has shown a strong relationship with breast cancer risk when assessed against automated methods. However, this method suffers from reader variability. This study aimed to assess the performance of PROCAS readers using VAS, and to identify those most predictive of breast cancer. We selected the seven readers who had estimated density on over 6,500 women including at least 100 cancer cases, analysing their performance using multivariable logistic regression and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analysis. All seven readers showed statistically significant odds ratios (OR) for cancer risk according to VAS score after adjusting for classical risk factors. The OR was greatest for reader 18 at 1.026 (95% Cl 1.018-1.034). Adjusted Area Under the ROC Curves (AUCs) were statistically significant for all readers, but greatest for reader 14 at 0.639. Further analysis of the VAS scores for these two readers showed reader 14 had higher sensitivity (78.0% versus 42.2%), whereas reader 18 had higher specificity (78.0% versus 46.0%). Our results demonstrate individual differences when assigning VAS scores; one better identified those with increased risk, whereas another better identified low risk individuals. However, despite their different strengths, both readers showed similar predictive abilities overall. Standardised training for VAS may improve reader variability and consistency of VAS scoring.

Antithrombotic Therapy for Atrial Fibrillation

PubMed Central

You, John J.; Singer, Daniel E.; Howard, Patricia A.; Lane, Deirdre A.; Eckman, Mark H.; Fang, Margaret C.; Hylek, Elaine M.; Schulman, Sam; Go, Alan S.; Hughes, Michael; Spencer, Frederick A.; Manning, Warren J.; Halperin, Jonathan L.

2012-01-01

Background: The risk of stroke varies considerably across different groups of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Antithrombotic prophylaxis for stroke is associated with an increased risk of bleeding. We provide recommendations for antithrombotic treatment based on net clinical benefit for patients with AF at varying levels of stroke risk and in a number of common clinical scenarios. Methods: We used the methods described in the Methodology for the Development of Antithrombotic Therapy and Prevention of Thrombosis Guidelines: Antithrombotic Therapy and Prevention of Thrombosis, 9th ed: American College of Chest Physicians Evidence-Based Clinical Practice Guidelines article of this supplement. Results: For patients with nonrheumatic AF, including those with paroxysmal AF, who are (1) at low risk of stroke (eg, CHADS2 [congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 years, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack] score of 0), we suggest no therapy rather than antithrombotic therapy, and for patients choosing antithrombotic therapy, we suggest aspirin rather than oral anticoagulation or combination therapy with aspirin and clopidogrel; (2) at intermediate risk of stroke (eg, CHADS2 score of 1), we recommend oral anticoagulation rather than no therapy, and we suggest oral anticoagulation rather than aspirin or combination therapy with aspirin and clopidogrel; and (3) at high risk of stroke (eg, CHADS2 score of ≥ 2), we recommend oral anticoagulation rather than no therapy, aspirin, or combination therapy with aspirin and clopidogrel. Where we recommend or suggest in favor of oral anticoagulation, we suggest dabigatran 150 mg bid rather than adjusted-dose vitamin K antagonist therapy. Conclusions: Oral anticoagulation is the optimal choice of antithrombotic therapy for patients with AF at high risk of stroke (CHADS2 score of ≥ 2). At lower levels of stroke risk, antithrombotic treatment decisions will require a more individualized approach. PMID:22315271

Abstract analysis method facilitates filtering low-methodological quality and high-bias risk systematic reviews on psoriasis interventions.

PubMed

Gómez-García, Francisco; Ruano, Juan; Aguilar-Luque, Macarena; Alcalde-Mellado, Patricia; Gay-Mimbrera, Jesús; Hernández-Romero, José Luis; Sanz-Cabanillas, Juan Luis; Maestre-López, Beatriz; González-Padilla, Marcelino; Carmona-Fernández, Pedro J; García-Nieto, Antonio Vélez; Isla-Tejera, Beatriz

2017-12-29

Article summaries' information and structure may influence researchers/clinicians' decisions to conduct deeper full-text analyses. Specifically, abstracts of systematic reviews (SRs) and meta-analyses (MA) should provide structured summaries for quick assessment. This study explored a method for determining the methodological quality and bias risk of full-text reviews using abstract information alone. Systematic literature searches for SRs and/or MA about psoriasis were undertaken on MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane database. For each review, quality, abstract-reporting completeness, full-text methodological quality, and bias risk were evaluated using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses for abstracts (PRISMA-A), Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR), and ROBIS tools, respectively. Article-, author-, and journal-derived metadata were systematically extracted from eligible studies using a piloted template, and explanatory variables concerning abstract-reporting quality were assessed using univariate and multivariate-regression models. Two classification models concerning SRs' methodological quality and bias risk were developed based on per-item and total PRISMA-A scores and decision-tree algorithms. This work was supported, in part, by project ICI1400136 (JR). No funding was received from any pharmaceutical company. This study analysed 139 SRs on psoriasis interventions. On average, they featured 56.7% of PRISMA-A items. The mean total PRISMA-A score was significantly higher for high-methodological-quality SRs than for moderate- and low-methodological-quality reviews. SRs with low-bias risk showed higher total PRISMA-A values than reviews with high-bias risk. In the final model, only 'authors per review > 6' (OR: 1.098; 95%CI: 1.012-1.194), 'academic source of funding' (OR: 3.630; 95%CI: 1.788-7.542), and 'PRISMA-endorsed journal' (OR: 4.370; 95%CI: 1.785-10.98) predicted PRISMA-A variability. Reviews with a total PRISMA-A score < 6, lacking identification as SR or MA in the title, and lacking explanation concerning bias risk assessment methods were classified as low-methodological quality. Abstracts with a total PRISMA-A score ≥ 9, including main outcomes results and explanation bias risk assessment method were classified as having low-bias risk. The methodological quality and bias risk of SRs may be determined by abstract's quality and completeness analyses. Our proposal aimed to facilitate synthesis of evidence evaluation by clinical professionals lacking methodological skills. External validation is necessary.

A risk score for identifying methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in patients presenting to the hospital with pneumonia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) represents an important pathogen in healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP). The concept of HCAP, though, may not perform well as a screening test for MRSA and can lead to overuse of antibiotics. We developed a risk score to identify patients presenting to the hospital with pneumonia unlikely to have MRSA. Methods We identified patients admitted with pneumonia (Apr 2005 – Mar 2009) at 62 hospitals in the US. We only included patients with lab evidence of bacterial infection (e.g., positive respiratory secretions, blood, or pleural cultures or urinary antigen testing). We determined variables independently associated with the presence of MRSA based on logistic regression (two-thirds of cohort) and developed a risk prediction model based on these factors. We validated the model in the remaining population. Results The cohort included 5975 patients and MRSA was identified in 14%. The final risk score consisted of eight variables and a potential total score of 10. Points were assigned as follows: two for recent hospitalization or ICU admission; one each for age < 30 or > 79 years, prior IV antibiotic exposure, dementia, cerebrovascular disease, female with diabetes, or recent exposure to a nursing home/long term acute care facility/skilled nursing facility. This study shows how the prevalence of MRSA rose with increasing score after stratifying the scores into Low (0 to 1 points), Medium (2 to 5 points) and High (6 or more points) risk. When the score was 0 or 1, the prevalence of MRSA was < 10% while the prevalence of MRSA climbed to > 30% when the score was 6 or greater. Conclusions MRSA represents a cause of pneumonia presenting to the hospital. This simple risk score identifies patients at low risk for MRSA and in whom anti-MRSA therapy might be withheld. PMID:23742753

Two risk score models for predicting incident Type 2 diabetes in Japan.

PubMed

Doi, Y; Ninomiya, T; Hata, J; Hirakawa, Y; Mukai, N; Iwase, M; Kiyohara, Y

2012-01-01

Risk scoring methods are effective for identifying persons at high risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus, but such approaches have not yet been established in Japan. A total of 1935 subjects of a derivation cohort were followed up for 14 years from 1988 and 1147 subjects of a validation cohort independent of the derivation cohort were followed up for 5 years from 2002. Risk scores were estimated based on the coefficients (β) of Cox proportional hazards model in the derivation cohort and were verified in the validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, the non-invasive risk model was established using significant risk factors; namely, age, sex, family history of diabetes, abdominal circumference, body mass index, hypertension, regular exercise and current smoking. We also created another scoring risk model by adding fasting plasma glucose levels to the non-invasive model (plus-fasting plasma glucose model). The area under the curve of the non-invasive model was 0.700 and it increased significantly to 0.772 (P < 0.001) in the plus-fasting plasma glucose model. The ability of the non-invasive model to predict Type 2 diabetes was comparable with that of impaired glucose tolerance, and the plus-fasting plasma glucose model was superior to it. The cumulative incidence of Type 2 diabetes was significantly increased with elevating quintiles of the sum scores of both models in the validation cohort (P for trend < 0.001). We developed two practical risk score models for easily identifying individuals at high risk of incident Type 2 diabetes without an oral glucose tolerance test in the Japanese population. © 2011 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2011 Diabetes UK.

[Association between risk factors of cardiovascular diseases and osteoporosis in postmenopausal Chinese women].

PubMed

Xue, Wen-qiong; Deng, Juan; Li, Jing-jing; Liu, Jing; He, Li-ping; Chen, Zong-qiu; Chen, Yu-ming

2011-06-01

To assess the relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and osteoporosis. 2202 women aged 50 - 73 years were included in this cross-sectional study from the communities in Guangzhou, from July 2008 to January 2010. Cardiovascular risk factors including age, years since menopause, physical activity, anthropometrics, body composition, blood pressure, fasting serum lipids, glucose and uric acid, intima-media thickness (IMT) of carotid artery were assessed. Ultrasonic bone density (speed of sound) at the radius and tibia were determined. Osteoporosis was defined as T-score ≤ -2.5. Common factors for the cardiovascular risk factors were extracted using the factor analysis method. Eight common factors representing obesity, lean mass, blood triglycerides and uric acid, cholesterol, age, blood pressure, IMT and physical activity were extracted. Data from the Multivariate logistic regression showed a dose-dependent association of greater scores of age and IMT factors and lower score of lean mass factor with the increased risk of osteoporosis at the radius and tibia. As compared with the bottom quartile, the OR (95%CI) of radius and tibia osteoporosis were 0.62 (0.44 - 0.88) and 0.62 (0.48 - 0.80) for lean mass factor, 4.02 (2.72 - 5.94) and 3.68 (2.81 - 4.82) for age factor, 1.41 (1.00 - 2.00) and 1.54 (1.19 - 2.00) for IMT factors, respectively. Moreover, greater blood pressure score was associated with higher risk of radius osteoporosis while the higher obese score, was correlated with the increased risk of tibia osteoporosis. The cardiovascular-related risk factors of greater IMT, obesity, blood pressure and lower lean mass scores were associated with increased osteoporosis risks while called for more concern among the Chinese women.

External Validation of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) for Risk Prioritization in an Iranian Population

PubMed Central

Atashi, Alireza; Amini, Shahram; Tashnizi, Mohammad Abbasi; Moeinipour, Ali Asghar; Aazami, Mathias Hossain; Tohidnezhad, Fariba; Ghasemi, Erfan; Eslami, Saeid

2018-01-01

Introduction The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) is a prediction model which maps 18 predictors to a 30-day post-operative risk of death concentrating on accurate stratification of candidate patients for cardiac surgery. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the performance of the EuroSCORE II risk-analysis predictions among patients who underwent heart surgeries in one area of Iran. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to collect the required variables for all consecutive patients who underwent heart surgeries at Emam Reza hospital, Northeast Iran between 2014 and 2015. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify covariates which significantly contribute to higher EuroSCORE II in our population. External validation was performed by comparing the real and expected mortality using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discrimination assessment. Also, Brier Score and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to show the overall performance and calibration level, respectively. Results Two thousand five hundred eight one (59.6% males) were included. The observed mortality rate was 3.3%, but EuroSCORE II had a prediction of 4.7%. Although the overall performance was acceptable (Brier score=0.047), the model showed poor discriminatory power by AUC=0.667 (sensitivity=61.90, and specificity=66.24) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P<0.01). Conclusion Our study showed that the EuroSCORE II discrimination power is less than optimal for outcome prediction and less accurate for resource allocation programs. It highlights the need for recalibration of this risk stratification tool aiming to improve post cardiac surgery outcome predictions in Iran. PMID:29617500

Disease Risk Score (DRS) as a Confounder Summary Method: Systematic Review and Recommendations

PubMed Central

Tadrous, Mina; Gagne, Joshua J.; Stürmer, Til; Cadarette, Suzanne M.

2013-01-01

Purpose To systematically examine trends and applications of the disease risk score (DRS) as a confounder summary method. Methods We completed a systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science® to identify all English language articles that applied DRS methods. We tabulated the number of publications by year and type (empirical application, methodological contribution, or review paper) and summarized methods used in empirical applications overall and by publication year (<2000, ≥2000). Results Of 714 unique articles identified, 97 examined DRS methods and 86 were empirical applications. We observed a bimodal distribution in the number of publications over time, with a peak 1979-1980, and resurgence since 2000. The majority of applications with methodological detail derived DRS using logistic regression (47%), used DRS as a categorical variable in regression (93%), and applied DRS in a non-experimental cohort (47%) or case-control (42%) study. Few studies examined effect modification by outcome risk (23%). Conclusion Use of DRS methods has increased yet remains low. Comparative effectiveness research may benefit from more DRS applications, particularly to examine effect modification by outcome risk. Standardized terminology may facilitate identification, application, and comprehension of DRS methods. More research is needed to support the application of DRS methods, particularly in case-control studies. PMID:23172692

Two-Step Approach for the Prediction of Future Type 2 Diabetes Risk

PubMed Central

Abdul-Ghani, Muhammad A.; Abdul-Ghani, Tamam; Stern, Michael P.; Karavic, Jasmina; Tuomi, Tiinamaija; Bo, Insoma; DeFronzo, Ralph A.; Groop, Leif

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE To develop a model for the prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk on the basis of a multivariate logistic model and 1-h plasma glucose concentration (1-h PG). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The model was developed in a cohort of 1,562 nondiabetic subjects from the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS) and validated in 2,395 nondiabetic subjects in the Botnia Study. A risk score on the basis of anthropometric parameters, plasma glucose and lipid profile, and blood pressure was computed for each subject. Subjects with a risk score above a certain cut point were considered to represent high-risk individuals, and their 1-h PG concentration during the oral glucose tolerance test was used to further refine their future T2DM risk. RESULTS We used the San Antonio Diabetes Prediction Model (SADPM) to generate the initial risk score. A risk-score value of 0.065 was found to be an optimal cut point for initial screening and selection of high-risk individuals. A 1-h PG concentration >140 mg/dL in high-risk individuals (whose risk score was >0.065) was the optimal cut point for identification of subjects at increased risk. The two cut points had 77.8, 77.4, and 44.8% (for the SAHS) and 75.8, 71.6, and 11.9% (for the Botnia Study) sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value, respectively, in the SAHS and Botnia Study. CONCLUSIONS A two-step model, based on the combination of the SADPM and 1-h PG, is a useful tool for the identification of high-risk Mexican-American and Caucasian individuals. PMID:21788628

Noninvasive Prenatal Detection of Trisomy 21 by Targeted Semiconductor Sequencing: A Technical Feasibility Study.

PubMed

Xi, Yanwei; Arbabi, Aryan; McNaughton, Amy J M; Hamilton, Alison; Hull, Danna; Perras, Helene; Chiu, Tillie; Morrison, Shawna; Goldsmith, Claire; Creede, Emilie; Anger, Gregory J; Honeywell, Christina; Cloutier, Mireille; Macchio, Natasha; Kiss, Courtney; Liu, Xudong; Crocker, Susan; Davies, Gregory A; Brudno, Michael; Armour, Christine M

2017-01-01

To develop an alternate noninvasive prenatal testing method for the assessment of trisomy 21 (T21) using a targeted semiconductor sequencing approach. A customized AmpliSeq panel was designed with 1,067 primer pairs targeting specific regions on chromosomes 21, 18, 13, and others. A total of 235 samples, including 30 affected with T21, were sequenced with an Ion Torrent Proton sequencer, and a method was developed for assessing the probability of fetal aneuploidy via derivation of a risk score. Application of the derived risk score yields a bimodal distribution, with the affected samples clustering near 1.0 and the unaffected near 0. For a risk score cutoff of 0.345, above which all would be considered at "high risk," all 30 T21-positive pregnancies were correctly predicted to be affected, and 199 of the 205 non-T21 samples were correctly predicted. The average hands-on time spent on library preparation and sequencing was 19 h in total, and the average number of reads of sequence obtained was 3.75 million per sample. With the described targeted sequencing approach on the semiconductor platform using a custom-designed library and a probabilistic statistical approach, we have demonstrated the feasibility of an alternate method of assessment for fetal T21. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Aggression at Age 5 as a Function of Prenatal Exposure to Cocaine, Gender, and Environmental Risk

PubMed Central

Bendersky, Margaret; Bennett, David; Lewis, Michael

2006-01-01

Objective To examine childhood aggression at age 5 in a multiple risk model that includes cocaine exposure, environmental risk, and gender as predictors. Methods Aggression was assessed in 206 children by using multiple methods including teacher report, parent report, child’s response to hypothetical provocations, and child’s observed behavior. Also examined was a composite score that reflected high aggression across contexts. Results Multiple regression analyses indicated that a significant amount of variance in each of the aggression measures and the composite was explained by the predictors. The variables that were independently related differed depending on the outcome. Cocaine exposure, gender, and environmental risk were all related to the composite aggression score. Conclusions Cocaine exposure, being male, and a high-risk environment were all predictive of aggressive behavior at 5 years. It is this group of exposed boys at high environmental risk that is most likely to show continued aggression over time. PMID:15827351

Ethnicity and prediction of cardiovascular disease: performance of QRISK2 and Framingham scores in a U.K. tri-ethnic prospective cohort study (SABRE--Southall And Brent REvisited).

PubMed

Tillin, Therese; Hughes, Alun D; Whincup, Peter; Mayet, Jamil; Sattar, Naveed; McKeigue, Paul M; Chaturvedi, Nish

2014-01-01

To evaluate QRISK2 and Framingham cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores in a tri-ethnic U.K. population. Cohort study. West London. Randomly selected from primary care lists. Follow-up data were available for 87% of traced participants, comprising 1866 white Europeans, 1377 South Asians, and 578 African Caribbeans, aged 40-69 years at baseline (1998-1991). First CVD events: myocardial infarction, coronary revascularisation, angina, transient ischaemic attack or stroke reported by participant, primary care or hospital records or death certificate. During follow-up, 387 CVD events occurred in men (14%) and 78 in women (8%). Both scores underestimated risk in European and South Asian women (ratio of predicted to observed risk: European women: QRISK2: 0.73, Framingham: 0.73; South Asian women: QRISK2: 0.52, Framingham: 0.43). In African Caribbeans, Framingham over-predicted in men and women and QRISK2 over-predicted in women. Framingham classified 28% of participants as high risk, predicting 54% of all such events. QRISK2 classified 19% as high risk, predicting 42% of all such events. Both scores performed poorly in identifying high risk African Caribbeans; QRISK2 and Framingham identified as high risk only 10% and 24% of those who experienced events. Neither score performed consistently well in all ethnic groups. Further validation of QRISK2 in other multi-ethnic datasets, and better methods for identifying high risk African Caribbeans and South Asian women, are required.

Tumor microenvironment of metastasis and risk of distant metastasis of breast cancer.

PubMed

Rohan, Thomas E; Xue, Xiaonan; Lin, Hung-Mo; D'Alfonso, Timothy M; Ginter, Paula S; Oktay, Maja H; Robinson, Brian D; Ginsberg, Mindy; Gertler, Frank B; Glass, Andrew G; Sparano, Joseph A; Condeelis, John S; Jones, Joan G

2014-08-01

Tumor microenvironment of metastasis (TMEM), consisting of direct contact between a macrophage, an endothelial cell, and a tumor cell, has been associated with metastasis in both rodent mammary tumors and human breast cancer. We prospectively examined the association between TMEM score and risk of distant metastasis and compared risk associated with TMEM score with that associated with IHC4. We conducted a case-control study nested within a cohort of 3760 patients with invasive ductal breast carcinoma diagnosed between 1980 and 2000 and followed through 2010. Case patients were women who developed a subsequent distant metastasis; control subjects were matched (1:1) on age at and calendar year of primary diagnosis. TMEM was assessed by triple immunostain and IHC4 by standard methods; slides were read by pathologists blinded to outcome. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression, adjusted for clinical variables. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed, and the area under the curve was estimated. All statistical tests were two-sided. TMEM score was associated with increased risk of distant metastasis in estrogen receptor (ER)(+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2)(-) tumors (multivariable OR high vs low tertile = 2.70; 95% CI = 1.39 to 5.26; P trend = .004), whereas IHC4 score had a borderline positive association (OR10 unit increase = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.13); the association for TMEM score persisted after adjustment for IHC4 score. The area under the curve for TMEM, adjusted for clinical variables, was 0.78. Neither TMEM score nor IHC4 score was independently associated with metastatic risk overall or in the triple negative or HER2(+) subgroups. TMEM score predicted risk of distant metastasis in ER(+)/HER2(-) breast cancer independently of IHC4 score and classical clinicopathologic features. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

PubMed Central

Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

2013-01-01

AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

PubMed

Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

2015-01-01

In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

Disease risk score as a confounder summary method: systematic review and recommendations.

PubMed

Tadrous, Mina; Gagne, Joshua J; Stürmer, Til; Cadarette, Suzanne M

2013-02-01

To systematically examine trends and applications of the disease risk score (DRS) as a confounder summary method. We completed a systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science® to identify all English language articles that applied DRS methods. We tabulated the number of publications by year and type (empirical application, methodological contribution, or review paper) and summarized methods used in empirical applications overall and by publication year (<2000, ≥2000). Of 714 unique articles identified, 97 examined DRS methods and 86 were empirical applications. We observed a bimodal distribution in the number of publications over time, with a peak 1979-1980, and resurgence since 2000. The majority of applications with methodological detail derived DRS using logistic regression (47%), used DRS as a categorical variable in regression (93%), and applied DRS in a non-experimental cohort (47%) or case-control (42%) study. Few studies examined effect modification by outcome risk (23%). Use of DRS methods has increased yet remains low. Comparative effectiveness research may benefit from more DRS applications, particularly to examine effect modification by outcome risk. Standardized terminology may facilitate identification, application, and comprehension of DRS methods. More research is needed to support the application of DRS methods, particularly in case-control studies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

PREDICT-PD: An online approach to prospectively identify risk indicators of Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Noyce, Alastair J; R'Bibo, Lea; Peress, Luisa; Bestwick, Jonathan P; Adams-Carr, Kerala L; Mencacci, Niccolo E; Hawkes, Christopher H; Masters, Joseph M; Wood, Nicholas; Hardy, John; Giovannoni, Gavin; Lees, Andrew J; Schrag, Anette

2017-02-01

A number of early features can precede the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD). To test an online, evidence-based algorithm to identify risk indicators of PD in the UK population. Participants aged 60 to 80 years without PD completed an online survey and keyboard-tapping task annually over 3 years, and underwent smell tests and genotyping for glucocerebrosidase (GBA) and leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) mutations. Risk scores were calculated based on the results of a systematic review of risk factors and early features of PD, and individuals were grouped into higher (above 15th centile), medium, and lower risk groups (below 85th centile). Previously defined indicators of increased risk of PD ("intermediate markers"), including smell loss, rapid eye movement-sleep behavior disorder, and finger-tapping speed, and incident PD were used as outcomes. The correlation of risk scores with intermediate markers and movement of individuals between risk groups was assessed each year and prospectively. Exploratory Cox regression analyses with incident PD as the dependent variable were performed. A total of 1323 participants were recruited at baseline and >79% completed assessments each year. Annual risk scores were correlated with intermediate markers of PD each year and baseline scores were correlated with intermediate markers during follow-up (all P values < 0.001). Incident PD diagnoses during follow-up were significantly associated with baseline risk score (hazard ratio = 4.39, P = .045). GBA variants or G2019S LRRK2 mutations were found in 47 participants, and the predictive power for incident PD was improved by the addition of genetic variants to risk scores. The online PREDICT-PD algorithm is a unique and simple method to identify indicators of PD risk. © 2017 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mossahebi, S; Feigenberg, S; Nichols, E

Purpose: GammaPod™, the first stereotactic radiotherapy device for early stage breast cancer treatment, has been recently installed and commissioned at our institution. A multidisciplinary working group applied the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) approach to perform a risk analysis. Methods: FMEA was applied to the GammaPod™ treatment process by: 1) generating process maps for each stage of treatment; 2) identifying potential failure modes and outlining their causes and effects; 3) scoring the potential failure modes using the risk priority number (RPN) system based on the product of severity, frequency of occurrence, and detectability (ranging 1–10). An RPN of highermore » than 150 was set as the threshold for minimal concern of risk. For these high-risk failure modes, potential quality assurance procedures and risk control techniques have been proposed. A new set of severity, occurrence, and detectability values were re-assessed in presence of the suggested mitigation strategies. Results: In the single-day image-and-treat workflow, 19, 22, and 27 sub-processes were identified for the stages of simulation, treatment planning, and delivery processes, respectively. During the simulation stage, 38 potential failure modes were found and scored, in terms of RPN, in the range of 9-392. 34 potential failure modes were analyzed in treatment planning with a score range of 16-200. For the treatment delivery stage, 47 potential failure modes were found with an RPN score range of 16-392. The most critical failure modes consisted of breast-cup pressure loss and incorrect target localization due to patient upper-body alignment inaccuracies. The final RPN score of these failure modes based on recommended actions were assessed to be below 150. Conclusion: FMEA risk analysis technique was applied to the treatment process of GammaPod™, a new stereotactic radiotherapy technology. Application of systematic risk analysis methods is projected to lead to improved quality of GammaPod™ treatments. Ying Niu and Cedric Yu are affiliated with Xcision Medical Systems.« less

A New Method to Assess Asymmetry in Fingerprints Could Be Used as an Early Indicator of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

PubMed Central

Morris, Molly R.; Ludwar, Bjoern Ch.; Swingle, Evan; Mamo, Mahelet N.; Shubrook, Jay H.

2016-01-01

Background: Inexpensive screening tools are needed to identify individuals predisposed to developing diabetes mellitus (DM). Such early identification coupled with an effective intervention could help many people avoid the substantial health costs of this disease. We investigated the hypothesis that fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in fingerprints is an indicator of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods: Participants with T2DM, with T1DM, and without any indication or known family history of diabetes were fingerprinted with a Crossmatch Verifier 320 LC scanner. Asymmetry scores for each finger pair were assessed using both pattern analysis (ridge counts), and a wavelet-based analysis. Results: Both methods for scoring asymmetry predicted risk of T2DM for finger pair IV, controlling for gender and age. AUC scores were significantly greater than the null for pattern asymmetry scores (finger IV AUC = 0.74), and wavelet asymmetry scores for finger pair IV (AUC = 0.73) and finger pair V (AUC = 0.73), for predicting T2DM. In addition, wavelet asymmetry scores for finger pair IV (AUC = 0.80) and finger pair V (AUC = 0.85) significantly predicted risk of T1DM. Conclusions: A diagnostic tool based on FA in the fingerprints of finger pair IV, measured using a wavelet analysis could be developed for predicting risk prior to associated health problems for both T2DM and T1DM. In addition, given that that the prints for fingers IV and V develop during the 14-17 weeks of gestation, we predict that interventions during this time period of pregnancy will be most successful. PMID:26830490

Portsmouth physiological and operative severity score for the Enumeration of Mortality and morbidity scoring system in general surgical practice and identifying risk factors for poor outcome

PubMed Central

Tyagi, Ashish; Nagpal, Nitin; Sidhu, D. S.; Singh, Amandeep; Tyagi, Anjali

2017-01-01

Background: Estimation of the outcome is paramount in disease stratification and subsequent management in severely ill surgical patients. Risk scoring helps us quantify the prospects of adverse outcome in a patient. Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) the world over has proved itself as a worthy scoring system and the present study was done to evaluate the feasibility of P-POSSUM as a risk scoring system as a tool in efficacious prediction of mortality and morbidity in our demographic profile. Materials and Methods: Validity of P-POSSUM was assessed prospectively in fifty major general surgeries performed at our hospital from May 2011 to October 2012. Data were collected to obtain P-POSSUM score, and statistical analysis was performed. Results: Majority (72%) of patients was male and mean age was 40.24 ± 18.6 years. Seventy-eight percentage procedures were emergency laparotomies commonly performed for perforation peritonitis. Mean physiological score was 17.56 ± 7.6, and operative score was 17.76 ± 4.5 (total score = 35.3 ± 10.4). The ratio of observed to expected mortality rate was 0.86 and morbidity rate was 0.78. Discussion: P-POSSUM accurately predicted both mortality and morbidity in patients who underwent major surgical procedures in our setup. Thus, it helped us in identifying patients who required preferential attention and aggressive management. Widespread application of this tool can result in better distribution of care among high-risk surgical patients. PMID:28250670

Decreased Renal Function Is Associated with Elevated CHA2DS2VASC and R2CHADS2 Scores in Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation Patients Presenting with Stroke.

PubMed

Vindhyal, Mohinder; Vindhyal, Shravani R; Haneke, Travis; Ndunda, Paul M; Eid, Freidy; Kallail, K James

2017-12-11

Introduction Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common cardiac arrhythmia, affects approximately 2.3 million patients in the United States, costing around $26 billion. Atrial fibrillation is associated with a two- to seven-fold increased risk of stroke, one of the most serious complications. Chronic kidney disease affects approximately 13% of the US population and has been associated with higher rates of AF than the general population. In patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), the risk of stroke increases as the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decreases, especially in CKD stages three and four. Several risks stratification scores such as CHADS2 (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, diabetes mellitus, stroke), CHA2DS2VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, diabetes mellitus, stroke, vascular disease, age, sex), and R2CHADS2 (renal failure, congestive heart failure, age, diabetes, stroke) scores are used for stroke risk assessment in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This study investigates the association between renal functions and risk stratification scoring systems in patients with non-valvular AF presenting with stroke. Methods Using the convenience sampling method, 171 subjects were selected from the eligible population (n = 386). A Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the association between the GFR and each of the CHA2DS2VASc and R2CHADS2 scores. In addition, a Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the association between the CHA2DS2VASc and R2CHADS2 scores. Results The selected population represented 44.3% of the eligible subjects. Of these, 88% were Caucasian, 60% were female, and the mean age was 78 years. The mean CHA2DS2VASc score was six (range 2-9). The mean eGFR was 69.77 (range 6-108). Both the mode and the median CHA2DS2VASc score was four (range 2-8). A weak, but significant, negative correlation was found between renal function (eGFR) and the CHA2DS2VASc score (r = -0.263; p = 0.0005). There was a stronger negative correlation between the eGFR and R2CHADS2score (r = -0.70; p < 0.00001). The CHA2DS2VASc and R2CHADS2scoring schemes were significantly and positively correlated (r = 0.627; p < 0.00001). Discussion In NVAF patients presenting with stroke, renal failure is associated with higher CHA2DS2VASc and R2CHADS2 scores. One must consider renal failure (end-stage or non-end stage renal failure) as an additional potential risk factor for stroke when recommending anticoagulation in non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

Global Risk Score and Clinical SYNTAX Score as Predictors of Clinical Outcomes of Patients Undergoing Unprotected Left Main Percutaneous Catheter Intervention

PubMed Central

Cuenza, Lucky; Collado, Marianne P.; Ho Khe Sui, James

2017-01-01

Background Risk stratification is an important component of left main percutaneous catheter intervention (PCI) which has emerged as a feasible alternative to cardiac surgery. We sought to compare the clinical SYNTAX score and the global risk score in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing unprotected left main PCI in our institution. Methods Clinical, angiographic and procedural characteristics of 92 patients who underwent unprotected left main PCI (mean age 62 ± 12.1 years) were analyzed. Patients were risk stratified into tertiles of high, intermediate and low risk using the global risk score (GRS) and the clinical SYNTAX score (CSS) and were prospectively followed up at 1 year for the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), defined as a composite of all cause mortality, cardiac mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary artery bypass, and target vessel revascularization. Results There were 26 (28.2%) who experienced MACEs, of which 10 (10.8%) patients died. Multivariable hazards analysis showed that the GRS (hazard ratio (HR) = 5.5, P = 0.001) and CSS (HR = 4.3, P = 0.001) were both independent predictors of MACEs. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed higher incidence of MACEs with the intermediate and higher risk categories compared to those classified as low risk. Receiver-operator characteristic analysis showed that the GRS has better discriminatory ability than the CSS in the prediction of 1 year MACEs (0.891 vs. 0.743, P = 0.007). Conclusion The GRS and CSS are predictive of outcomes after left main PCI. The GRS appears to have superior predictive and prognostic utility compared to the CSS. This study emphasizes the importance of combining both anatomic and clinical variables for optimum prognostication and management decisions in left main PCI. PMID:29317974

Comparison of risk scores for the prediction of stroke in African Americans: Findings from the Jackson Heart Study.

PubMed

Foraker, Randi E; Greiner, Melissa; Sims, Mario; Tucker, Katherine L; Towfighi, Amytis; Bidulescu, Aurelian; Shoben, Abigail B; Smith, Sakima; Talegawkar, Sameera; Blackshear, Chad; Wang, Wei; Hardy, Natalie Chantelle; O'Brien, Emily

2016-07-01

Evidence from existing cohort studies supports the prediction of incident coronary heart disease and stroke using 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores and the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association's cardiovascular health (CVH) metric. We included all Jackson Heart Study participants with complete scoring information at the baseline study visit (2000-2004) who had no history of stroke (n = 4,140). We used Kaplan-Meier methods to calculate the cumulative incidence of stroke and used Cox models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for stroke according to CVD risk and CVH score. We compared the discrimination of the 2 models according to the Harrell c index and plotted predicted vs observed stroke risk calibration plots for each of the 2 models. The median age of the African American participants was 54.5 years, and 65% were female. The cumulative incidence of stroke increased across worsening categories of CVD risk and CVH. A 1-unit increase in CVD risk increased the hazard of stroke (1.07, 1.06-1.08), whereas each 1-unit increase in CVH corresponded to a decreased hazard of stroke (0.76, 0.69-0.83). As evidenced by the c statistics, the CVH model was less discriminating than the CVD risk model (0.59 [0.55-0.64] vs 0.79 [0.76-0.83]). Both scores were associated with incident stroke in a dose-response fashion; however, the CVD risk model was more discriminating than the CVH model. The CVH score may still be preferable for its simplicity in application to broad patient populations and public health efforts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genetic Predisposition to Central Obesity and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Two Independent Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Huang, Tao; Qi, Qibin; Zheng, Yan; Ley, Sylvia H.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Hu, Frank B.

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE Abdominal obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aimed to examine the association between the genetic predisposition to central obesity, assessed by the waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) genetic score, and T2D risk. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The current study included 2,591 participants with T2D and 3,052 participants without T2D of European ancestry from the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS). Genetic predisposition to central obesity was estimated using a genetic score based on 14 established loci for the WHR. RESULTS We found that the central obesity genetic score was linearly related to higher T2D risk. Results were similar in the NHS (women) and HPFS (men). In combined results, each point of the central obesity genetic score was associated with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.04 (95% CI 1.01–1.07) for developing T2D, and the OR was 1.24 (1.03–1.45) when comparing extreme quartiles of the genetic score after multivariate adjustment. CONCLUSIONS The data indicate that genetic predisposition to central obesity is associated with higher T2D risk. This association is mediated by central obesity. PMID:25852209

A comparison of 2 methods of endoscopic laryngeal sensory testing: a preliminary study.

PubMed

Kaneoka, Asako; Krisciunas, Gintas P; Walsh, Kayo; Raade, Adele S; Langmore, Susan E

2015-03-01

This study examined the association between laryngeal sensory deficits and penetration or aspiration. Two methods of testing laryngeal sensation were carried out to determine which was more highly correlated with Penetration-Aspiration Scale (PAS) scores. Healthy participants and patients with dysphagia received an endoscopic swallowing evaluation including 2 sequential laryngeal sensory tests-air pulse followed by touch method. Normal/impaired responses were correlated with PAS scores. Fourteen participants completed the endoscopic swallowing evaluation and both sensory tests. The air pulse method identified sensory impairment with greater frequency than the touch method (P<.0001). However, the impairment identified by the air pulse method was not associated with abnormal PAS scores (P=.46). The sensory deficits identified by the touch method were associated with abnormal PAS scores (P=.05). Sensory impairment detected by the air pulse method does not appear to be associated with risk of penetration/aspiration. Significant laryngeal sensory loss revealed by the touch method is associated with compromised airway protection. © The Author(s) 2014.

The TRIAGE-ProADM Score for an Early Risk Stratification of Medical Patients in the Emergency Department - Development Based on a Multi-National, Prospective, Observational Study

PubMed Central

Hausfater, Pierre; Amin, Devendra; Amin, Adina; Canavaggio, Pauline; Sauvin, Gabrielle; Bernard, Maguy; Conca, Antoinette; Haubitz, Sebastian; Struja, Tristan; Huber, Andreas; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

2016-01-01

Introduction The inflammatory biomarker pro-adrenomedullin (ProADM) provides additional prognostic information for the risk stratification of general medical emergency department (ED) patients. The aim of this analysis was to develop a triage algorithm for improved prognostication and later use in an interventional trial. Methods We used data from the multi-national, prospective, observational TRIAGE trial including consecutive medical ED patients from Switzerland, France and the United States. We investigated triage effects when adding ProADM at two established cut-offs to a five-level ED triage score with respect to adverse clinical outcome. Results Mortality in the 6586 ED patients showed a step-wise, 25-fold increase from 0.6% to 4.5% and 15.4%, respectively, at the two ProADM cut-offs (≤0.75nmol/L, >0.75–1.5nmol/L, >1.5nmol/L, p ANOVA <0.0001). Risk stratification by combining ProADM within cut-off groups and the triage score resulted in the identification of 1662 patients (25.2% of the population) at a very low risk of mortality (0.3%, n = 5) and 425 patients (6.5% of the population) at very high risk of mortality (19.3%, n = 82). Risk estimation by using ProADM and the triage score from a logistic regression model allowed for a more accurate risk estimation in the whole population with a classification of 3255 patients (49.4% of the population) in the low risk group (0.3% mortality, n = 9) and 1673 (25.4% of the population) in the high-risk group (15.1% mortality, n = 252). Conclusions Within this large international multicenter study, a combined triage score based on ProADM and established triage scores allowed a more accurate mortality risk discrimination. The TRIAGE-ProADM score improved identification of both patients at the highest risk of mortality who may benefit from early therapeutic interventions (rule in), and low risk patients where deferred treatment without negatively affecting outcome may be possible (rule out). PMID:28005916

The association between surgical complications and the POSSUM score in head and neck reconstruction: a retrospective single-center study.

PubMed

Makino, Yohjiroh; Ishida, Katsuhiro; Kishi, Keita; Kodama, Hiroki; Miyawaki, Takeshi

2018-06-01

The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) is widely used to predict surgical complications affecting various organs. However, there are few reports about objective evaluation methods for head and neck surgery. In this study, we retrospectively examined the association between POSSUM score and actual surgical complications of head and neck reconstruction surgery. In total, 711 patients who underwent head and neck reconstruction after cancer extirpation between January 2007 and January 2015 were studied. The predicted risk of complications was calculated using the POSSUM score and compared with the actual rate of perioperative complications. Perioperative complications occurred in 178 (25%) patients, comprising systemic complications in 52 (7%) patients, surgical site infection of the head and neck area in 78 (11%) patients and failure of the free flap in 55 (8.8%) patients. When patients were divided into a perioperative complication group and a no-complication group, a significant difference between the two groups was observed in the predicted postoperative rate calculated from the POSSUM score (p < .0001, odds ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.04). Furthermore, the cutoff value of the POSSUM score calculated from the receiver operating characteristic curve using Youden's index was 43.0%. POSSUM is a useful risk indicator for head and neck reconstruction surgery. It is possible to objectively calculate the prediction level using a standard assessment method without adding burden to any medical facility. Therefore, patients may be considered at high risk for perioperative complications when the POSSUM score is 43.0% or higher.

Liver Surface Nodularity Score Allows Prediction of Cirrhosis Decompensation and Death.

PubMed

Smith, Andrew D; Zand, Kevin A; Florez, Edward; Sirous, Reza; Shlapak, Darya; Souza, Frederico; Roda, Manohar; Bryan, Jason; Vasanji, Amit; Griswold, Michael; Lirette, Seth T

2017-06-01

Purpose To determine whether use of the liver surface nodularity (LSN) score, a quantitative biomarker derived from routine computed tomographic (CT) images, allows prediction of cirrhosis decompensation and death. Materials and Methods For this institutional review board-approved HIPAA-compliant retrospective study, adult patients with cirrhosis and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score within 3 months of initial liver CT imaging between January 3, 2006, and May 30, 2012, were identified from electronic medical records (n = 830). The LSN score was measured by using CT images and quantitative software. Competing risk regression was used to determine the association of the LSN score with hepatic decompensation and overall survival. A risk model combining LSN scores (<3 or ≥3) and MELD scores (<10 or ≥10) was created for predicting liver-related events. Results In patients with compensated cirrhosis, 40% (129 of 326) experienced decompensation during a median follow-up period of 4.22 years. After adjustment for competing risks including MELD score, LSN score (hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% confidence interval: 1.06, 1.79) was found to be independently predictive of hepatic decompensation. Median times to decompensation of patients at high (1.76 years, n = 48), intermediate (3.79 years, n = 126), and low (6.14 years, n = 152) risk of hepatic decompensation were significantly different (P < .001). Among the full cohort with compensated or decompensated cirrhosis, 61% (504 of 830) died during the median follow-up period of 2.26 years. After adjustment for competing risks, LSN score (hazard ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval: 1.11, 1.33) and MELD score (hazard ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval: 1.06, 1.11) were found to be independent predictors of death. Median times to death of patients at high (0.94 years, n = 315), intermediate (2.79 years, n = 312), and low (4.69 years, n = 203) risk were significantly different (P < .001). Conclusion The LSN score derived from routine CT images allows prediction of cirrhosis decompensation and death. © RSNA, 2016 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Diabetes risk score in the United Arab Emirates: a screening tool for the early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus

PubMed Central

Sulaiman, Nabil; Hussein, Amal; Elbadawi, Salah; Abusnana, Salah; Zimmet, Paul

2018-01-01

Objective The objective of this study was to develop a simple non-invasive risk score, specific to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) citizens, to identify individuals at increased risk of having undiagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus. Research design and methods A retrospective analysis of the UAE National Diabetes and Lifestyle data was conducted. The data included demographic and anthropometric measurements, and fasting blood glucose. Univariate analyses were used to identify the risk factors for diabetes. The risk score was developed for UAE citizens using a stepwise forward regression model. Results A total of 872 UAE citizens were studied. The overall prevalence of diabetes in the UAE adult citizens in the Northern Emirates was 25.1%. The significant risk factors identified for diabetes were age (≥35 years), a family history of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, body mass index ≥30.0 and waist-to-hip ratio ≥0.90 for males and ≥0.85 for females. The performance of the model was moderate in terms of sensitivity (75.4%, 95% CI 68.3 to 81.7) and specificity (70%, 95% CI 65.8 to 73.9). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was 0.82 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.86). Conclusions A simple, non-invasive risk score model was developed to help to identify those at high risk of having diabetes among UAE citizens. This score could contribute to the efficient and less expensive earlier detection of diabetes in this high-risk population. PMID:29629178

Identifying critically ill patients who benefit the most from nutrition therapy: the development and initial validation of a novel risk assessment tool

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction To develop a scoring method for quantifying nutrition risk in the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods A prospective, observational study of patients expected to stay > 24 hours. We collected data for key variables considered for inclusion in the score which included: age, baseline APACHE II, baseline SOFA score, number of comorbidities, days from hospital admission to ICU admission, Body Mass Index (BMI) < 20, estimated % oral intake in the week prior, weight loss in the last 3 months and serum interleukin-6 (IL-6), procalcitonin (PCT), and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Approximate quintiles of each variable were assigned points based on the strength of their association with 28 day mortality. Results A total of 597 patients were enrolled in this study. Based on the statistical significance in the multivariable model, the final score used all candidate variables except BMI, CRP, PCT, estimated percentage oral intake and weight loss. As the score increased, so did mortality rate and duration of mechanical ventilation. Logistic regression demonstrated that nutritional adequacy modifies the association between the score and 28 day mortality (p = 0.01). Conclusions This scoring algorithm may be helpful in identifying critically ill patients most likely to benefit from aggressive nutrition therapy. PMID:22085763

Predicting treatment failure, death and drug resistance using a computed risk score among newly diagnosed TB patients in Tamaulipas, Mexico.

PubMed

Abdelbary, B E; Garcia-Viveros, M; Ramirez-Oropesa, H; Rahbar, M H; Restrepo, B I

2017-10-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a method for identifying newly diagnosed tuberculosis (TB) patients at risk for TB adverse events in Tamaulipas, Mexico. Surveillance data between 2006 and 2013 (8431 subjects) was used to develop risk scores based on predictive modelling. The final models revealed that TB patients failing their treatment regimen were more likely to have at most a primary school education, multi-drug resistance (MDR)-TB, and few to moderate bacilli on acid-fast bacilli smear. TB patients who died were more likely to be older males with MDR-TB, HIV, malnutrition, and reporting excessive alcohol use. Modified risk scores were developed with strong predictability for treatment failure and death (c-statistic 0·65 and 0·70, respectively), and moderate predictability for drug resistance (c-statistic 0·57). Among TB patients with diabetes, risk scores showed moderate predictability for death (c-statistic 0·68). Our findings suggest that in the clinical setting, the use of our risk scores for TB treatment failure or death will help identify these individuals for tailored management to prevent these adverse events. In contrast, the available variables in the TB surveillance dataset are not robust predictors of drug resistance, indicating the need for prompt testing at time of diagnosis.

Apparent diffusion coefficient on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in bladder cancer: relations with recurrence/progression risk

PubMed Central

Kikuchi, Ken; Shigihara, Takeshi; Hashimoto, Yuko; Miyajima, Masayuki; Haga, Nobuhiro; Kojima, Yoshiyuki; Shishido, Fumio

2017-01-01

Abstract AIMS: To evaluate the relationship between the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) value for bladder cancer and the recurrence/progression risk of post-transurethral resection (TUR). METHODS: Forty-one patients with initial and non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer underwent MRI from 2009 to 2012. Two radiologists measured ADC values. A pathologist calculated the recurrence/progression scores, and risk was classified based on the scores. Pearson’s correlation was used to analyze the correlations of ADC value with each score and with each risk group, and the optimal cut-off value was established based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Furthermore, the relationship between actual recurrence / progression of cases and ADC values was examined by Unpaird U test. RESULTS: There were significant correlations between ADC value and the recurrence score as well as the progression score (P<0.01, P<0.01, respectively). There were also significant correlations between ADC value and the recurrence risk group as well as progression risk group (P=0.042, P<0.01, respectively). The ADC cut-off value on ROC analysis was 1.365 (sensitivity 100%; specificity 97.4%) for the low and intermediate recurrence risk groups, 1.024 (sensitivity 47.4%; specificity 100%) for the intermediate and high recurrence risk groups, 1.252 (sensitivity 83.3%; specificity 81.3%) for the low and intermediate progression risk groups, and 0.955 (sensitivity 87.5%; specificity 63.2%) between the intermediate and high progression risk groups. The difference between the ADC values of the recurrence and nonrecurrence group in Unpaired t test was significant (P<0.05). CONCLUSION: ADC on MRI in bladder cancer could potentially be useful, non-invasive measurement for estimating the risks of recurrence and progression. PMID:28680010

Oral Hygiene and Cardiometabolic Disease Risk in the Survey of the Health of Wisconsin

PubMed Central

VanWormer, Jeffrey J.; Acharya, Amit; Greenlee, Robert T.; Nieto, F. Javier

2012-01-01

Objectives Poor oral health is an increasingly recognized risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D), but little is known about the association between toothbrushing or flossing and cardiometabolic disease risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the degree to which an oral hygiene index was associated with CVD and T2D risk scores among disease-free adults in the Survey of the Health of Wisconsin. Methods All variables were measured in 2008–2010 in this cross-sectional design. Based on toothbrushing and flossing frequency, and oral hygiene index (poor, fair, good, excellent) was created as the primary predictor variable. The outcomes, CVD and T2D risk score, were based on previous estimates from large cohort studies. There were 712 and 296 individuals with complete data available for linear regression analyses in the CVD and T2D samples, respectively. Results After covariate adjustment, the final model indicated that participants in the excellent (β±SE=−0.019±0.008, p=0.020) oral hygiene category had a significantly lower CVD risk score as compared to participants in the poor oral hygiene category. Sensitivity analyses indicated that both toothbrushing and flossing were independently associated with CVD risk score, and various modifiable risk factors. Oral hygiene was not significantly associated with T2D risk score. Conclusions Regular toothbrushing and flossing are associated with a more favorable CVD risk profile, but more experimental research is needed in this area to precisely determine the effects of various oral self-care maintenance behaviors on the control of individual cardiometabolic risk factors. These findings may inform future joint medical-dental initiatives designed to close gaps in the primary prevention of oral and systemic diseases. PMID:23106415

Multilocus Genetic Risk Scores for Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

2014-01-01

Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889

Short and Long Term Cardiovascular Risk, Metabolic Syndrome Prevalence and HIV in Tanzania: A Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Kingery, Justin R; Alfred, Yona; Smart, Luke R; Nash, Emily; Todd, Jim; Naguib, Mostafa R; Downs, Jennifer A; Kalluvya, Samuel; Kataraihya, Johannes B; Peck, Robert N

2016-01-01

Objective To compare short and long term cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores and prevalence of metabolic syndrome in HIV-infected adults receiving and not receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) to HIV-negative controls. Methods A cross-sectional study including: 151 HIV-infected, ART-naive, 150 HIV-infected on ART and 153 HIV-negative adults. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors were determined by standard investigations. The primary outcome was ACC/AHA ASCVD Risk Estimator lifetime CVD risk score. Secondary outcomes were ASCVD 10-year risk, Framingham risk scores, statin indication and metabolic syndrome. Results Compared to HIV-negative controls, more HIV-infected adults on ART were classified as high lifetime CVD risk (34.7% vs 17.0%, p<0.001) although 10-year risk scores were similar, a trend which was similar across multiple CVD risk models. In addition, HIV-infected adults on ART had a higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome vs HIV-negative controls (21.3% vs 7.8%, p=0.008), with 2 common clusters of risk factors. More than one-quarter (28.7%) of HIV-infected Tanzanian adults on ART meet criteria for statin initiation. Conclusions HIV-infected ART-treated individuals have high lifetime cardiovascular risk, and this risk seems to develop rapidly in the first 3–4 years of ART as does the development of clusters of metabolic syndrome criteria. These data identify a new subgroup of low short-term/high lifetime risk HIV-infected individuals on ART who do not currently meet criteria for CVD risk factor modification but require further study. PMID:27105648

Evaluation of Non-Laboratory and Laboratory Prediction Models for Current and Future Diabetes Mellitus: A Cross-Sectional and Retrospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Hahn, Seokyung; Moon, Min Kyong; Park, Kyong Soo; Cho, Young Min

2016-01-01

Background Various diabetes risk scores composed of non-laboratory parameters have been developed, but only a few studies performed cross-validation of these scores and a comparison with laboratory parameters. We evaluated the performance of diabetes risk scores composed of non-laboratory parameters, including a recently published Korean risk score (KRS), and compared them with laboratory parameters. Methods The data of 26,675 individuals who visited the Seoul National University Hospital Healthcare System Gangnam Center for a health screening program were reviewed for cross-sectional validation. The data of 3,029 individuals with a mean of 6.2 years of follow-up were reviewed for longitudinal validation. The KRS and 16 other risk scores were evaluated and compared with a laboratory prediction model developed by logistic regression analysis. Results For the screening of undiagnosed diabetes, the KRS exhibited a sensitivity of 81%, a specificity of 58%, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) of 0.754. Other scores showed AROCs that ranged from 0.697 to 0.782. For the prediction of future diabetes, the KRS exhibited a sensitivity of 74%, a specificity of 54%, and an AROC of 0.696. Other scores had AROCs ranging from 0.630 to 0.721. The laboratory prediction model composed of fasting plasma glucose and hemoglobin A1c levels showed a significantly higher AROC (0.838, P < 0.001) than the KRS. The addition of the KRS to the laboratory prediction model increased the AROC (0.849, P = 0.016) without a significant improvement in the risk classification (net reclassification index: 4.6%, P = 0.264). Conclusions The non-laboratory risk scores, including KRS, are useful to estimate the risk of undiagnosed diabetes but are inferior to the laboratory parameters for predicting future diabetes. PMID:27214034

Development of Risk Score for Predicting 3-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes: Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study

PubMed Central

Nanri, Akiko; Nakagawa, Tohru; Kuwahara, Keisuke; Yamamoto, Shuichiro; Honda, Toru; Okazaki, Hiroko; Uehara, Akihiko; Yamamoto, Makoto; Miyamoto, Toshiaki; Kochi, Takeshi; Eguchi, Masafumi; Murakami, Taizo; Shimizu, Chii; Shimizu, Makiko; Tomita, Kentaro; Nagahama, Satsue; Imai, Teppei; Nishihara, Akiko; Sasaki, Naoko; Hori, Ai; Sakamoto, Nobuaki; Nishiura, Chihiro; Totsuzaki, Takafumi; Kato, Noritada; Fukasawa, Kenji; Huanhuan, Hu; Akter, Shamima; Kurotani, Kayo; Kabe, Isamu; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Sone, Tomofumi; Dohi, Seitaro

2015-01-01

Objective Risk models and scores have been developed to predict incidence of type 2 diabetes in Western populations, but their performance may differ when applied to non-Western populations. We developed and validated a risk score for predicting 3-year incidence of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese population. Methods Participants were 37,416 men and women, aged 30 or older, who received periodic health checkup in 2008–2009 in eight companies. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥126 mg/dl, random plasma glucose ≥200 mg/dl, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥6.5%, or receiving medical treatment for diabetes. Risk scores on non-invasive and invasive models including FPG and HbA1c were developed using logistic regression in a derivation cohort and validated in the remaining cohort. Results The area under the curve (AUC) for the non-invasive model including age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, and smoking status was 0.717 (95% CI, 0.703–0.731). In the invasive model in which both FPG and HbA1c were added to the non-invasive model, AUC was increased to 0.893 (95% CI, 0.883–0.902). When the risk scores were applied to the validation cohort, AUCs (95% CI) for the non-invasive and invasive model were 0.734 (0.715–0.753) and 0.882 (0.868–0.895), respectively. Participants with a non-invasive score of ≥15 and invasive score of ≥19 were projected to have >20% and >50% risk, respectively, of developing type 2 diabetes within 3 years. Conclusions The simple risk score of the non-invasive model might be useful for predicting incident type 2 diabetes, and its predictive performance may be markedly improved by incorporating FPG and HbA1c. PMID:26558900

The Aristotle method: a new concept to evaluate quality of care based on complexity.

PubMed

Lacour-Gayet, François; Clarke, David R

2005-06-01

Evaluation of quality of care is a duty of the modern medical practice. A reliable method of quality evaluation able to compare fairly institutions and inform a patient and his family of the potential risk of a procedure is clearly needed. It is now well recognized that any method that purports to evaluate quality of care should include a case mix/risk stratification method. No valuable method was available until recently in pediatric cardiac surgery. The Aristotle method is a new concept of evaluation of quality of care in congenital heart surgery based on the complexity of the surgical procedures. Involving a panel of expert surgeons, the project started in 1999 and included 50 pediatric surgeons from 23 countries. The basic score adjusts the complexity of a given procedure and is calculated as the sum of potential for mortality, potential for morbidity and anticipated technical difficulty. The Comprehensive Score further adjusts the complexity according to the specific patient characteristics (anatomy, associated procedures, co-morbidity, etc.). The Aristotle method is original as it introduces several new concepts: the calculated complexity is a constant for a given patient all over the world; complexity is an independent value and risk is a variable depending on the performance; and Performance = Complexity x Outcome. The Aristotle score is a good vector of communication between patients, doctors and insurance companies and may stimulate the quality and the organization of heath care in our field and in others.

Predicting risk of substantial weight gain in German adults—a multi-center cohort approach

PubMed Central

Bachlechner, Ursula; Boeing, Heiner; Haftenberger, Marjolein; Schienkiewitz, Anja; Scheidt-Nave, Christa; Vogt, Susanne; Thorand, Barbara; Peters, Annette; Schipf, Sabine; Ittermann, Till; Völzke, Henry; Nöthlings, Ute; Neamat-Allah, Jasmine; Greiser, Karin-Halina; Kaaks, Rudolf

2017-01-01

Abstract Background A risk-targeted prevention strategy may efficiently utilize limited resources available for prevention of overweight and obesity. Likewise, more efficient intervention trials could be designed if selection of subjects was based on risk. The aim of the study was to develop a risk score predicting substantial weight gain among German adults. Methods We developed the risk score using information on 15 socio-demographic, dietary and lifestyle factors from 32 204 participants of five population-based German cohort studies. Substantial weight gain was defined as gaining ≥10% of weight between baseline and follow-up (>6 years apart). The cases were censored according to the theoretical point in time when the threshold of 10% baseline-based weight gain was crossed assuming linearity of weight gain. Beta coefficients derived from proportional hazards regression were used as weights to compute the risk score as a linear combination of the predictors. Cross-validation was used to evaluate the score’s discriminatory accuracy. Results The cross-validated c index (95% CI) was 0.71 (0.67–0.75). A cutoff value of ≥475 score points yielded a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 63%. The corresponding positive and negative predictive values were 10.4% and 97.6%, respectively. Conclusions The proposed risk score may support healthcare providers in decision making and referral and facilitate an efficient selection of subjects into intervention trials. PMID:28013243

Does the Surgical Apgar Score Measure Intraoperative Performance?

PubMed Central

Regenbogen, Scott E.; Lancaster, R. Todd; Lipsitz, Stuart R.; Greenberg, Caprice C.; Hutter, Matthew M.; Gawande, Atul A.

2008-01-01

Objective To evaluate whether Surgical Apgar Scores measure the relationship between intraoperative care and surgical outcomes. Summary Background Data With preoperative risk-adjustment now well-developed, the role of intraoperative performance in surgical outcomes may be considered. We previously derived and validated a ten-point Surgical Apgar Score—based on intraoperative blood loss, heart rate, and blood pressure—that effectively predicts major postoperative complications within 30 days of general and vascular surgery. This study evaluates whether the predictive value of this score comes solely from patients’ preoperative risk, or also measures care in the operating room. Methods Among a systematic sample of 4,119 general and vascular surgery patients at a major academic hospital, we constructed a detailed risk-prediction model including 27 patient-comorbidity and procedure-complexity variables, and computed patients’ propensity to suffer a major postoperative complication. We evaluated the prognostic value of patients’ Surgical Apgar Scores before and after adjustment for this preoperative risk. Results After risk-adjustment, the Surgical Apgar Score remained strongly correlated with postoperative outcomes (p<0.0001). Odds of major complications among average-scoring patients (scores 7–8) were equivalent to preoperative predictions (likelihood ratio (LR) 1.05, 95%CI 0.78–1.41), significantly decreased for those who achieved the best scores of 9–10 (LR 0.52, 95%CI 0.35–0.78), and were significantly poorer for those with low scores—LRs 1.60 (1.12–2.28) for scores 5–6, and 2.80 (1.50–5.21) for scores 0–4. Conclusions Even after accounting for fixed preoperative risk—due to patients’ acute condition, comorbidities and/or operative complexity—the Surgical Apgar Score appears to detect differences in intraoperative management that reduce odds of major complications by half, or increase them by nearly three-fold. PMID:18650644

Validation of Open-Heart Intraoperative Risk score to predict a prolonged intensive care unit stay for adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass

PubMed Central

Tribuddharat, Sirirat; Sathitkarnmanee, Thepakorn; Ngamsaengsirisup, Kriangsak; Wongbuddha, Chawalit

2018-01-01

Background A prolonged stay in an intensive care unit (ICU) after cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) increases the cost of care as well as morbidity and mortality. Several predictive models aim at identifying patients at risk of prolonged ICU stay after cardiac surgery with CPB, but almost all of them involve a preoperative assessment for proper resource management, while one – the Open-Heart Intraoperative Risk (OHIR) score – focuses on intra-operative manipulatable risk factors for improving anesthetic care and patient outcome. Objective We aimed to revalidate the OHIR score in a different context. Materials and methods The ability of the OHIR score to predict a prolonged ICU stay was assessed in 123 adults undergoing cardiac surgery (both coronary bypass graft and valvular surgery) with CPB at two tertiary university hospitals between January 2013 and December 2014. The criteria for a prolonged ICU stay matched a previous study (ie, a stay longer than the median). Results The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the OHIR score to predict a prolonged ICU stay was 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.90–1.00). The respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and accuracy of an OHIR score of ≥3 to discriminate a prolonged ICU stay was 93.10%, 98.46%, 98.18%, and 95.9%. Conclusion The OHIR score is highly predictive of a prolonged ICU stay among intraopera-tive patients undergoing cardiac surgery with CPB. The OHIR comprises of six risk factors, five of which are manipulatable intraoperatively. The OHIR can be used to identify patients at risk as well as to improve the outcome of those patients. PMID:29379295

Use of allele scores as instrumental variables for Mendelian randomization

PubMed Central

Burgess, Stephen; Thompson, Simon G

2013-01-01

Background An allele score is a single variable summarizing multiple genetic variants associated with a risk factor. It is calculated as the total number of risk factor-increasing alleles for an individual (unweighted score), or the sum of weights for each allele corresponding to estimated genetic effect sizes (weighted score). An allele score can be used in a Mendelian randomization analysis to estimate the causal effect of the risk factor on an outcome. Methods Data were simulated to investigate the use of allele scores in Mendelian randomization where conventional instrumental variable techniques using multiple genetic variants demonstrate ‘weak instrument’ bias. The robustness of estimates using the allele score to misspecification (for example non-linearity, effect modification) and to violations of the instrumental variable assumptions was assessed. Results Causal estimates using a correctly specified allele score were unbiased with appropriate coverage levels. The estimates were generally robust to misspecification of the allele score, but not to instrumental variable violations, even if the majority of variants in the allele score were valid instruments. Using a weighted rather than an unweighted allele score increased power, but the increase was small when genetic variants had similar effect sizes. Naive use of the data under analysis to choose which variants to include in an allele score, or for deriving weights, resulted in substantial biases. Conclusions Allele scores enable valid causal estimates with large numbers of genetic variants. The stringency of criteria for genetic variants in Mendelian randomization should be maintained for all variants in an allele score. PMID:24062299

Comparing 2 Adhesive Methods on Skin Integrity in the High-Risk Neonate.

PubMed

Boswell, Nicole; Waker, Cheryl L

2016-12-01

Nurses have a primary role in promoting neonatal skin integrity and skin care management of the critically ill neonate. Adhesive products are essential to secure needed medical devices but can be a significant factor contributing to skin breakdown. Current literature does not offer a definitive answer regarding which products most safely and effectively work to secure needed devices in the high-risk neonatal population. To determine which adhesive method is best practice to safely and effectively secure lines/tubes in the high-risk neonate population. The only main effect that was significant was age group with mean skin scores. Subjects in the younger group (24-28 weeks) had higher skin scores than in the older group (28-34 weeks), validating that younger gestations are at higher risk of breakdown with the use of adhesives. The findings did not clearly identify which product was superior to secure tubes and lines, or was the least injurious to skin of the high-risk neonate. Neither a transparent dressing only or transparent dressing over hydrocolloid method clearly demonstrated an advantage in the high-risk, preterm neonate. Anecdotal comments suggested staff preferred the transparent dressing over hydrocolloid method as providing better adhesive while protecting skin integrity. The findings validated that younger gestations are at higher risk of breakdown with the use of adhesives and therefore require close vigilance to maintain skin integrity.

Prognostic score–based balance measures for propensity score methods in comparative effectiveness research

PubMed Central

Stuart, Elizabeth A.; Lee, Brian K.; Leacy, Finbarr P.

2013-01-01

Objective Examining covariate balance is the prescribed method for determining when propensity score methods are successful at reducing bias. This study assessed the performance of various balance measures, including a proposed balance measure based on the prognostic score (also known as the disease-risk score), to determine which balance measures best correlate with bias in the treatment effect estimate. Study Design and Setting The correlations of multiple common balance measures with bias in the treatment effect estimate produced by weighting by the odds, subclassification on the propensity score, and full matching on the propensity score were calculated. Simulated data were used, based on realistic data settings. Settings included both continuous and binary covariates and continuous covariates only. Results The standardized mean difference in prognostic scores, the mean standardized mean difference, and the mean t-statistic all had high correlations with bias in the effect estimate. Overall, prognostic scores displayed the highest correlations of all the balance measures considered. Prognostic score measure performance was generally not affected by model misspecification and performed well under a variety of scenarios. Conclusion Researchers should consider using prognostic score–based balance measures for assessing the performance of propensity score methods for reducing bias in non-experimental studies. PMID:23849158

Cardiovascular Risk and Level of Statin Use Among Women With Breast Cancer in a Cardio-Oncology Clinic

PubMed Central

Shum, Kelly; Solivan, Amber; Parto, Parham; Polin, Nichole; Jahangir, Eiman

2016-01-01

Background: Because of the improvements in survival rates, patients with breast cancer are now more likely to die from cardiovascular disease than from cancer. Thus, providing appropriate preventive cardiovascular care to patients with cancer is of the utmost importance. Methods: We retrospectively compared the cardiovascular risk and management of 146 women treated at the Cardio-Oncology (Cardio-Onc) and the Obstetrics and Gynecology (Ob-Gyn) clinics. We calculated cardiovascular risk using the American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk calculator and the Framingham Risk Score Calculator. We also determined the prevalence of appropriate statin use according to both the 2013 ACC/AHA and the 2002 Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III lipid guidelines. Results: The 10-year ASCVD risk score was not significantly different between the 2 cohorts. More patients in the Ob-Gyn cohort with an ASCVD risk score >7.5% were already appropriately on statins compared to patients in the Cardio-Onc cohort (60.9% vs 31.0%, respectively, P=0.003), but after the first Cardio-Onc visit, 4 additional patients with breast cancer were prescribed statins (44.8% total). Fourteen (19.2%) Cardio-Onc patients had a high Framingham Risk Score compared to 6 (8.2%) Ob-Gyn patients. Conclusion: We demonstrated that the ASCVD risk is similar between women with breast cancer attending the Cardio-Onc clinic and the women without breast cancer attending the Ob-Gyn clinic, but the Cardio-Onc cohort had significantly more patients with a high Framingham Risk Score. Both clinics had similarly poor rates of appropriate statin prescribing rates according to the ATP III guidelines. PMID:27660568

Love, Trust, and HIV Risk Among Female Sex Workers and Their Intimate Male Partners

PubMed Central

Bazzi, Angela Robertson; Martinez, Gustavo; Rangel, M. Gudelia; Ulibarri, Monica D.; Fergus, Kirkpatrick B.; Amaro, Hortensia; Strathdee, Steffanie A.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We examined correlates of love and trust among female sex workers and their noncommercial male partners along the Mexico–US border. Methods. From 2011 to 2012, 322 partners in Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, completed assessments of love and trust. Cross-sectional dyadic regression analyses identified associations of relationship characteristics and HIV risk behaviors with love and trust. Results. Within 161 couples, love and trust scores were moderately high (median 70/95 and 29/40 points, respectively) and correlated with relationship satisfaction. In regression analyses of HIV risk factors, men and women who used methamphetamine reported lower love scores, whereas women who used heroin reported slightly higher love. In an alternate model, men with concurrent sexual partners had lower love scores. For both partners, relationship conflict was associated with lower trust. Conclusions. Love and trust are associated with relationship quality, sexual risk, and drug use patterns that shape intimate partners’ HIV risk. HIV interventions should consider the emotional quality of sex workers’ intimate relationships. PMID:26066947

Assessing risk of injury in people with mental retardation living in an intermediate care facility.

PubMed

Konarski, Edward A; Tassé, Marc

2005-09-01

A brief instrument to assess risk of injury was applied retrospectively for 2 years and prospectively for 1 year to all people living in a large ICF/MR. Results suggest that the percentage of people who experienced an injury significantly increased across the levels of increasing risk indicated by the assessment. Furthermore, people who experienced an injury had significantly higher risk scores than those who did not. Using psychometric analyses, we found a mean correlation of .79 for interrater reliability and .90 for test-retest reliability on individual items and correlations of .91 and .95, respectively, on total score. We conclude that the assessment has promise as a reliable and valid method for predicting injury risk level.

Dynamic trends in cardiac surgery: why the logistic EuroSCORE is no longer suitable for contemporary cardiac surgery and implications for future risk models

PubMed Central

Hickey, Graeme L.; Grant, Stuart W.; Murphy, Gavin J.; Bhabra, Moninder; Pagano, Domenico; McAllister, Katherine; Buchan, Iain; Bridgewater, Ben

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVES Progressive loss of calibration of the original EuroSCORE models has necessitated the introduction of the EuroSCORE II model. Poor model calibration has important implications for clinical decision-making and risk adjustment of governance analyses. The objective of this study was to explore the reasons for the calibration drift of the logistic EuroSCORE. METHODS Data from the Society for Cardiothoracic Surgery in Great Britain and Ireland database were analysed for procedures performed at all National Health Service and some private hospitals in England and Wales between April 2001 and March 2011. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. EuroSCORE risk factors, overall model calibration and discrimination were assessed over time. RESULTS A total of 317 292 procedures were included. Over the study period, mean age at surgery increased from 64.6 to 67.2 years. The proportion of procedures that were isolated coronary artery bypass grafts decreased from 67.5 to 51.2%. In-hospital mortality fell from 4.1 to 2.8%, but the mean logistic EuroSCORE increased from 5.6 to 7.6%. The logistic EuroSCORE remained a good discriminant throughout the study period (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve between 0.79 and 0.85), but calibration (observed-to-expected mortality ratio) fell from 0.76 to 0.37. Inadequate adjustment for decreasing baseline risk affected calibration considerably. DISCUSSIONS Patient risk factors and case-mix in adult cardiac surgery change dynamically over time. Models like the EuroSCORE that are developed using a ‘snapshot’ of data in time do not account for this and can subsequently lose calibration. It is therefore important to regularly revalidate clinical prediction models. PMID:23152436

Hearing loss screening tool (COBRA score) for newborns in primary care setting

PubMed Central

Poonual, Watcharapol; Navacharoen, Niramon; Kangsanarak, Jaran; Namwongprom, Sirianong

2017-01-01

Purpose To develop and evaluate a simple screening tool to assess hearing loss in newborns. A derived score was compared with the standard clinical practice tool. Methods This cohort study was designed to screen the hearing of newborns using transiently evoked otoacoustic emission and auditory brain stem response, and to determine the risk factors associated with hearing loss of newborns in 3 tertiary hospitals in Northern Thailand. Data were prospectively collected from November 1, 2010 to May 31, 2012. To develop the risk score, clinical-risk indicators were measured by Poisson risk regression. The regression coefficients were transformed into item scores dividing each regression-coefficient with the smallest coefficient in the model, rounding the number to its nearest integer, and adding up to a total score. Results Five clinical risk factors (Craniofacial anomaly, Ototoxicity, Birth weight, family history [Relative] of congenital sensorineural hearing loss, and Apgar score) were included in our COBRA score. The screening tool detected, by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, more than 80% of existing hearing loss. The positive-likelihood ratio of hearing loss in patients with scores of 4, 6, and 8 were 25.21 (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.69–43.26), 58.52 (95% CI, 36.26–94.44), and 51.56 (95% CI, 33.74–78.82), respectively. This result was similar to the standard tool (The Joint Committee on Infant Hearing) of 26.72 (95% CI, 20.59–34.66). Conclusion A simple screening tool of five predictors provides good prediction indices for newborn hearing loss, which may motivate parents to bring children for further appropriate testing and investigations. PMID:29234358

Distribution of concussion related symptoms after whiplash injury in risk strata.

PubMed

Kasch, Helge; Jensen, Troels S

2017-12-29

Background/aims The presence and severity of concussion related symptoms after acute whiplash injury are debatable. In this study we examine the distribution and development of the burden of concussion related symptoms in whiplash patients. Methods Consecutively 141 acute whiplash patients and 40 ankle injured controls were recruited from emergency units and were examined after 1 week, 1, 3, 6, 12 months obtaining neck/head VAS score, number-of-non-painful complaints, epidemiological, social, psychological data and neurological examination, active neck mobility, and furthermore muscle tenderness and pain response, strength and duration of neck muscles. Risk factors derived (reduced CROM, intense neckpain/headache, multiple non-pain complaints) were applied in a Risk Assessment Score and divided into 7 risk-strata (refer Kasch et al., Spine 2011). After 1 week and 6 months whiplash patients fulfilled the Rivermead Oxford Head Injury questionnaire (10 items, score from 0 = no change to 4 = very marked change, Danish Version, total score range from 0 to 40). Results 138 acute whiplash patients fulfilled the Rivermead Oxford Head Injury questionnaire after 1 week and 111 after 6 months. The distribution was markedly different in the risk strata, in stratum 7 the sum score was a factor 10 higher than stratum 1 after 1 week (Kruskal-Wallis, p < 1.4 × 10-7) and remained high 6 months after injury (p < 0.05). Conclusion Mild concussion symptoms do not necessarily reflect eventual concussion, but are found after injuries with no direct head trauma and amnesia e.g. whiplash injuries. The Risk Assessment Score fits nicely with the burden of concussion related symptoms after whiplash injury.

The Incremental Value of Troponin Biomarkers in Risk Stratification of Acute Coronary Syndromes: Is the Relationship Multiplicative?

PubMed Central

Amin, Amit P; Nathan, Sandeep; Vassallo, Patricia; Calvin, James E

2009-01-01

Structured Abstract Objective: To emphasize the importance of troponin in the context of a new score for risk stratifying acute coronary syndromes (ACS) patients. Although troponins have powerful prognostic value, current ACS scores do not fully capitalize this prognostic ability. Here, we weigh troponin status in a multiplicative manner to develop the TRACS score from previously published Rush score risk factors (RRF). Methods: 2,866 ACS patients (46.7% troponin positive) from 9 centers comprising the TRACS registry, were randomly split into derivation (n=1,422) and validation (n=1,444) cohorts. In the derivation sample, RRF sum was multiplied by 3 if troponins were positive to yield the TRACS score, which was grouped into five categories of 0-2, 3-5, 6-8, 9-11, 12-15 (multiples of 3). Predictive performance of this score to predict hospital death was ascertained in the validation sample. Results: The TRACS score had ROC AUC of 0.71 in the validation cohort. Logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, likelihood-ratio and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) test indicated that weighing troponin status with 3 in the TRACS score improved the prediction of mortality. Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated sound model fit. Conclusions: We demonstrate that weighing troponin as a multiple of 3 yields robust prognostication of hospital mortality in ACS patients, when used in the context of the TRACS score. PMID:19557150

Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Chronic Kidney Disease in HIV Infection Using Prospective Cohort Data from the D:A:D Study

PubMed Central

Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens D.; Ross, Michael; Law, Matthew; Reiss, Peter; Kirk, Ole; Smith, Colette; Wentworth, Deborah; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Fux, Christoph A.; Moranne, Olivier; Morlat, Phillipe; Johnson, Margaret A.; Ryom, Lene

2015-01-01

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7–6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3–9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was −2 (interquartile range –4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score < 0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0–4, 103 events) and high risk groups (risk score ≥ 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166–3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159–278) and 21 (95% CI 19–23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506–1462), 88 (95% CI 69–121), and 9 (95% CI 8–10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3–12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6–8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. Conclusions Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD. PMID:25826420

Assessment scale of risk for surgical positioning injuries 1

PubMed Central

Lopes, Camila Mendonça de Moraes; Haas, Vanderlei José; Dantas, Rosana Aparecida Spadoti; de Oliveira, Cheila Gonçalves; Galvão, Cristina Maria

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: to build and validate a scale to assess the risk of surgical positioning injuries in adult patients. Method: methodological research, conducted in two phases: construction and face and content validation of the scale and field research, involving 115 patients. Results: the Risk Assessment Scale for the Development of Injuries due to Surgical Positioning contains seven items, each of which presents five subitems. The scale score ranges between seven and 35 points in which, the higher the score, the higher the patient's risk. The Content Validity Index of the scale corresponded to 0.88. The application of Student's t-test for equality of means revealed the concurrent criterion validity between the scores on the Braden scale and the constructed scale. To assess the predictive criterion validity, the association was tested between the presence of pain deriving from surgical positioning and the development of pressure ulcer, using the score on the Risk Assessment Scale for the Development of Injuries due to Surgical Positioning (p<0.001). The interrater reliability was verified using the intraclass correlation coefficient, equal to 0.99 (p<0.001). Conclusion: the scale is a valid and reliable tool, but further research is needed to assess its use in clinical practice. PMID:27579925

The polygenic risk for bipolar disorder influences brain regional function relating to visual and default state processing of emotional information.

PubMed

Dima, Danai; de Jong, Simone; Breen, Gerome; Frangou, Sophia

2016-01-01

Genome-wise association studies have identified a number of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), each of small effect, associated with risk to bipolar disorder (BD). Several risk-conferring SNPs have been individually shown to influence regional brain activation thus linking genetic risk for BD to altered brain function. The current study examined whether the polygenic risk score method, which models the cumulative load of all known risk-conferring SNPs, may be useful in the identification of brain regions whose function may be related to the polygenic architecture of BD. We calculated the individual polygenic risk score for BD (PGR-BD) in forty-one patients with the disorder, twenty-five unaffected first-degree relatives and forty-six unrelated healthy controls using the most recent Psychiatric Genomics Consortium data. Functional magnetic resonance imaging was used to define task-related brain activation patterns in response to facial affect and working memory processing. We found significant effects of the PGR-BD score on task-related activation irrespective of diagnostic group. There was a negative association between the PGR-BD score and activation in the visual association cortex during facial affect processing. In contrast, the PGR-BD score was associated with failure to deactivate the ventromedial prefrontal region of the default mode network during working memory processing. These results are consistent with the threshold-liability model of BD, and demonstrate the usefulness of the PGR-BD score in identifying brain functional alternations associated with vulnerability to BD. Additionally, our findings suggest that the polygenic architecture of BD is not regionally confined but impacts on the task-dependent recruitment of multiple brain regions.

Risk Score for Detecting Dysglycemia: A Cross-Sectional Study of a Working-Age Population in an Oil Field in China.

PubMed

Tian, Xiubiao; Liu, Yan; Han, Ying; Shi, Jieli; Zhu, Tiehong

2017-06-11

BACKGROUND Dysglycemia (pre-diabetes or diabetes) in young adults has increased rapidly. However, the risk scores for detecting dysglycemia in oil field staff and workers in China are limited. This study developed a risk score for the early identification of dysglycemia based on epidemiological and health examination data in an oil field working-age population with increased risk of diabetes. MATERIAL AND METHODS Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the risk score model in a population-based, cross-sectional study. All subjects completed the questionnaires and underwent physical examination and oral glucose tolerance tests. The performance of the risk score models was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS The study population consisted of 1995 participants, 20-64 years old (49.4% males), with undiagnosed diabetes or pre-diabetes who underwent periodic health examinations from March 2014 to June 2015 in Dagang oil field, Tianjin, China. Age, sex, body mass index, history of high blood glucose, smoking, triglyceride, and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) constituted the Dagang dysglycemia risk score (Dagang DRS) model. The performance of Dagang DRS was superior to m-FINDRISC (AUC: 0.791; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.773-0.809 vs. 0.633; 95% CI, 0.611-0.654). At the cut-off value of 5.6 mmol/L, the Dagang DRS (AUC: 0.616; 95% CI, 0.592-0.641) was better than the FPG value alone (AUC: 0.571; 95% CI, 0.546-0.596) in participants with FPG <6.1 mmol/L (n=1545, P=0.028). CONCLUSIONS Dagang DRS is a valuable tool for detecting dysglycemia, especially when FPG <6.1 mmol/L, in oil field workers in China.

Research on Operation Assessment Method for Energy Meter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiangqun; Huang, Rui; Shen, Liman; chen, Hao; Xiong, Dezhi; Xiao, Xiangqi; Liu, Mouhai; Xu, Renheng

2018-03-01

The existing electric energy meter rotation maintenance strategy regularly checks the electric energy meter and evaluates the state. It only considers the influence of time factors, neglects the influence of other factors, leads to the inaccuracy of the evaluation, and causes the waste of resources. In order to evaluate the running state of the electric energy meter in time, a method of the operation evaluation of the electric energy meter is proposed. The method is based on extracting the existing data acquisition system, marketing business system and metrology production scheduling platform that affect the state of energy meters, and classified into error stability, operational reliability, potential risks and other factors according to the influencing factors, based on the above basic test score, inspecting score, monitoring score, score of family defect detection. Then, according to the evaluation model according to the scoring, we evaluate electric energy meter operating state, and finally put forward the corresponding maintenance strategy of rotation.

A Method of Evaluating Operation of Electric Energy Meter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiangqun; Li, Tianyang; Cao, Fei; Chu, Pengfei; Zhao, Xinwang; Huang, Rui; Liu, Liping; Zhang, Chenglin

2018-05-01

The existing electric energy meter rotation maintenance strategy regularly checks the electric energy meter and evaluates the state. It only considers the influence of time factors, neglects the influence of other factors, leads to the inaccuracy of the evaluation, and causes the waste of resources. In order to evaluate the running state of the electric energy meter in time, a method of the operation evaluation of the electric energy meter is proposed. The method is based on extracting the existing data acquisition system, marketing business system and metrology production scheduling platform that affect the state of energy meters, and classified into error stability, operational reliability, potential risks and other factors according to the influencing factors, based on the above basic test score, inspecting score, monitoring score, score of family defect detection. Then, according to the evaluation model according to the scoring, we evaluate electric energy meter operating state, and finally put forward the corresponding maintenance strategy of rotation.

Purposes and methods of scoring earthquake forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, J.

2010-12-01

There are two kinds of purposes in the studies on earthquake prediction or forecasts: one is to give a systematic estimation of earthquake risks in some particular region and period in order to give advice to governments and enterprises for the use of reducing disasters, the other one is to search for reliable precursors that can be used to improve earthquake prediction or forecasts. For the first case, a complete score is necessary, while for the latter case, a partial score, which can be used to evaluate whether the forecasts or predictions have some advantages than a well know model, is necessary. This study reviews different scoring methods for evaluating the performance of earthquake prediction and forecasts. Especially, the gambling scoring method, which is developed recently, shows its capacity in finding good points in an earthquake prediction algorithm or model that are not in a reference model, even if its overall performance is no better than the reference model.

Effect of Diet High in Coconut Oil on Cardiovascular Disease Risk in ApoE Knockout and Wild Type Mice (Mus musculus)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-07

Objective: We evaluated the risk of cardiovascular disease in both control and proatherosclerotic mice consuming diets high in coconut oil. Methods...The mice were weighed and randomly assigned to receive a custom diet with either coconut oil or milk fat. Both diets were formulated to have the...significant differences were seen between knockout and wildtype mice in aorta score regardless of diet, and in liver score with coconut oil diet

Validation of a Molecular and Pathological Model for Five-Year Mortality Risk in Patients with Early Stage Lung Adenocarcinoma

PubMed Central

Bueno, Raphael; Hughes, Elisha; Wagner, Susanne; Gutin, Alexander S.; Lanchbury, Jerry S.; Zheng, Yifan; Archer, Michael A.; Gustafson, Corinne; Jones, Joshua T.; Rushton, Kristen; Saam, Jennifer; Kim, Edward; Barberis, Massimo; Wistuba, Ignacio; Wenstrup, Richard J.; Wallace, William A.; Harrison, David J.

2015-01-01

Introduction: The aim of this study was to validate a molecular expression signature [cell cycle progression (CCP) score] that identifies patients with a higher risk of cancer-related death after surgical resection of early stage (I-II) lung adenocarcinoma in a large patient cohort and evaluate the effectiveness of combining CCP score and pathological stage for predicting lung cancer mortality. Methods: Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded surgical tumor samples from 650 patients diagnosed with stage I and II adenocarcinoma who underwent definitive surgical treatment without adjuvant chemotherapy were analyzed for 31 proliferation genes by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. The prognostic discrimination of the expression score was assessed by Cox proportional hazards analysis using 5-year lung cancer-specific death as primary outcome. Results: The CCP score was a significant predictor of lung cancer-specific mortality above clinical covariates [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.46 per interquartile range (95% confidence interval = 1.12–1.90; p = 0.0050)]. The prognostic score, a combination of CCP score and pathological stage, was a more significant indicator of lung cancer mortality risk than pathological stage in the full cohort (HR = 2.01; p = 2.8 × 10−11) and in stage I patients (HR = 1.67; p = 0.00027). Using the 85th percentile of the prognostic score as a threshold, there was a significant difference in lung cancer survival between low-risk and high-risk patient groups (p = 3.8 × 10−7). Conclusions: This study validates the CCP score and the prognostic score as independent predictors of lung cancer death in patients with early stage lung adenocarcinoma treated with surgery alone. Patients with resected stage I lung adenocarcinoma and a high prognostic score may be candidates for adjuvant therapy to reduce cancer-related mortality. PMID:25396679

An assessment of the geographical risks of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks in Africa and Asia.

PubMed

O'Reilly, Kathleen M; Lamoureux, Christine; Molodecky, Natalie A; Lyons, Hil; Grassly, Nicholas C; Tallis, Graham

2017-05-26

The international spread of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks continues to threaten eradication of poliomyelitis and in 2014 a public health emergency of international concern was declared. Here we describe a risk scoring system that has been used to assess country-level risks of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks, to inform prioritisation of mass vaccination planning, and describe the change in risk from 2014 to 2016. The methods were also used to assess the risk of emergence of vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks. Potential explanatory variables were tested against the reported outbreaks of wild poliomyelitis since 2003 using multivariable regression analysis. The regression analysis was translated to a risk score and used to classify countries as Low, Medium, Medium High and High risk, based on the predictive ability of the score. Indicators of population immunity, population displacement and diarrhoeal disease were associated with an increased risk of both wild and vaccine-derived outbreaks. High migration from countries with wild cases was associated with wild outbreaks. High birth numbers were associated with an increased risk of vaccine-derived outbreaks. Use of the scoring system is a transparent and rapid approach to assess country risk of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks. Since 2008 there has been a steep reduction in the number of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks and the reduction in countries classified as High and Medium High risk has reflected this. The risk of vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks has varied geographically. These findings highlight that many countries remain susceptible to poliomyelitis outbreaks and maintenance or improvement in routine immunisation is vital.

Credit scoring analysis using kernel discriminant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widiharih, T.; Mukid, M. A.; Mustafid

2018-05-01

Credit scoring model is an important tool for reducing the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to applicants. This paper investigate the performance of kernel discriminant model in assessing customer credit risk. Kernel discriminant analysis is a non- parametric method which means that it does not require any assumptions about the probability distribution of the input. The main ingredient is a kernel that allows an efficient computation of Fisher discriminant. We use several kernel such as normal, epanechnikov, biweight, and triweight. The models accuracy was compared each other using data from a financial institution in Indonesia. The results show that kernel discriminant can be an alternative method that can be used to determine who is eligible for a credit loan. In the data we use, it shows that a normal kernel is relevant to be selected for credit scoring using kernel discriminant model. Sensitivity and specificity reach to 0.5556 and 0.5488 respectively.

The cost-effectiveness of using chronic kidney disease risk scores to screen for early-stage chronic kidney disease.

PubMed

Yarnoff, Benjamin O; Hoerger, Thomas J; Simpson, Siobhan K; Leib, Alyssa; Burrows, Nilka R; Shrestha, Sundar S; Pavkov, Meda E

2017-03-13

Better treatment during early stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) may slow progression to end-stage renal disease and decrease associated complications and medical costs. Achieving early treatment of CKD is challenging, however, because a large fraction of persons with CKD are unaware of having this disease. Screening for CKD is one important method for increasing awareness. We examined the cost-effectiveness of identifying persons for early-stage CKD screening (i.e., screening for moderate albuminuria) using published CKD risk scores. We used the CKD Health Policy Model, a micro-simulation model, to simulate the cost-effectiveness of using CKD two published risk scores by Bang et al. and Kshirsagar et al. to identify persons in the US for CKD screening with testing for albuminuria. Alternative risk score thresholds were tested (0.20, 0.15, 0.10, 0.05, and 0.02) above which persons were assigned to receive screening at alternative intervals (1-, 2-, and 5-year) for follow-up screening if the first screening was negative. We examined incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), incremental lifetime costs divided by incremental lifetime QALYs, relative to the next higher screening threshold to assess cost-effectiveness. Cost-effective scenarios were determined as those with ICERs less than $50,000 per QALY. Among the cost-effective scenarios, the optimal scenario was determined as the one that resulted in the highest lifetime QALYs. ICERs ranged from $8,823 per QALY to $124,626 per QALY for the Bang et al. risk score and $6,342 per QALY to $405,861 per QALY for the Kshirsagar et al. risk score. The Bang et al. risk score with a threshold of 0.02 and 2-year follow-up screening was found to be optimal because it had an ICER less than $50,000 per QALY and resulted in the highest lifetime QALYs. This study indicates that using these CKD risk scores may allow clinicians to cost-effectively identify a broader population for CKD screening with testing for albuminuria and potentially detect people with CKD at earlier stages of the disease than current approaches of screening only persons with diabetes or hypertension.

A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons.

PubMed

Reitz, Christiane; Tang, Ming-Xin; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Mayeux, Richard; Luchsinger, José A

2010-07-01

To develop a simple summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons based on their vascular risk profiles. A longitudinal, community-based study. New York, New York. Patients One thousand fifty-one Medicare recipients aged 65 years or older and residing in New York who were free of dementia or cognitive impairment at baseline. We separately explored the associations of several vascular risk factors with late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) using Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that would contribute to the risk score. Then we estimated the score values of each factor based on their beta coefficients and created the LOAD vascular risk score by summing these individual scores. Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio. The resulting risk score predicted dementia well. According to the vascular risk score quintiles, the risk to develop probable LOAD was 1.0 for persons with a score of 0 to 14 and increased 3.7-fold for persons with a score of 15 to 18, 3.6-fold for persons with a score of 19 to 22, 12.6-fold for persons with a score of 23 to 28, and 20.5-fold for persons with a score higher than 28. While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD. This risk score could be used to identify persons at risk of LOAD, but can also be used to adjust for confounders in epidemiologic studies.

Apgar Score Is Related to Development of Atopic Dermatitis: Cotwin Control Study

PubMed Central

Naeser, Vibeke; Kahr, Niklas; Stensballe, Lone Graff; Kyvik, Kirsten Ohm; Skytthe, Axel; Backer, Vibeke

2013-01-01

Aim. To study the impact of birth characteristics on the risk of atopic dermatitis in a twin population. Methods. In a population-based questionnaire study of 10,809 twins, 3–9 years of age, from the Danish Twin Registry, we identified 907 twin pairs discordant for parent-reported atopic dermatitis. We cross-linked with data from the Danish National Birth Registry and performed cotwin control analysis in order to test the impact of birth characteristics on the risk of atopic dermatitis. Results. Apgar score, OR (per unit) = 1.23 (1.06–1.44), P = 0.008, and female sex, OR = 1.31 (1.06–1.61), P = 0.012, were risk factors for atopic dermatitis in cotwin control analysis, whereas birth anthropometric factors were not significantly related to disease development. Risk estimates in monozygotic and dizygotic twins were not significantly different for the identified risk factors. Conclusions. In this population-based cotwin control study, high Apgar score was a risk factor for atopic dermatitis. This novel finding must be confirmed in subsequent studies. PMID:24222775

Risk of future trauma based on alcohol screening scores: A two-year prospective cohort study among US veterans

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Severe alcohol misuse as measured by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test–Consumption (AUDIT-C) is associated with increased risk of future fractures and trauma-related hospitalizations. This study examined the association between AUDIT-C scores and two-year risk of any type of trauma among US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients and assessed whether risk varied by age or gender. Methods Outpatients (215, 924 male and 9168 female) who returned mailed AUDIT-C questionnaires were followed for 24 months in the medical record for any International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-9) code related to trauma. The two-year prevalence of trauma was examined as a function of AUDIT-C scores, with low-level drinking (AUDIT-C 1–4) as the reference group. Men and women were examined separately, and age-stratified analyses were performed. Results Having an AUDIT-C score of 9–12 (indicating severe alcohol misuse) was associated with increased risk for trauma. Mean (SD) ages for men and women were 68.2 (11.5) and 57.2 (15.8), respectively. Age-stratified analyses showed that, for men ≤50 years, those with AUDIT-C scores ≥9 had an increased risk for trauma compared with those with AUDIT-C scores in the 1–4 range (adjusted prevalence, 25.7% versus 20.8%, respectively; OR = 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–1.50). For men ≥65 years with average comorbidity and education, those with AUDIT-C scores of 5–8 (adjusted prevalence, 7.9% versus 7.4%; OR = 1.16; 95% CI, 1.02–1.31) and 9–12 (adjusted prevalence 11.1% versus 7.4%; OR = 1.68; 95% CI, 1.30–2.17) were at significantly increased risk for trauma compared with men ≥65 years in the reference group. Higher AUDIT-C scores were not associated with increased risk of trauma among women. Conclusions Men with severe alcohol misuse (AUDIT-C 9–12) demonstrate an increased risk of trauma. Men ≥65 showed an increased risk for trauma at all levels of alcohol misuse (AUDIT-C 5–8 and 9–12). These findings may be used as part of an evidence-based brief intervention for alcohol use disorders. More research is needed to understand the relationship between AUDIT-C scores and risk of trauma in women. PMID:22966411

Early Onset Obesity and Risk of Metabolic Syndrome Among Chilean Adolescents

PubMed Central

Pacheco, Lorena Sonia; Blanco, Estela; Burrows, Raquel; Reyes, Marcela; Lozoff, Betsy

2017-01-01

Introduction Obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS) indicators have increased globally among the pediatric population. MetS indicators in the young elevate their risk of cardiovascular disease and metabolic disorders later in life. This study examined early onset obesity as a risk factor for MetS risk in adolescence. Methods A cohort of Chilean participants (N = 673) followed from infancy was assessed at age 5 years and in adolescence (mean age, 16.8 y). Adiposity was measured at both time points; blood pressure and fasting blood samples were assessed in adolescence only. Early onset obesity was defined as a World Health Organization z score of 2 standard deviations (SDs) or more for body mass index (BMI) at age 5 years. We used linear regression to examine the association between early onset obesity and adolescent MetS risk z score, adjusting for covariates. Results Eighteen percent of participants had early onset obesity, and 50% of these remained obese in adolescence. Mean MetS risk z score in adolescence was significantly higher among those with early onset obesity than among those without (1.0; SD, 0.8 vs 0.2; SD, 0.8 [P < .001]). In the multivariable model, early onset obesity independently contributed to a higher MetS risk score in adolescence (β = 0.27, P < .001), controlling for obesity status at adolescence and sex, and explained 39% of the variance in MetS risk. Conclusion Early onset obesity as young as age 5 years relates to higher MetS risk. PMID:29023232

Prediction of Febrile Neutropenia after Chemotherapy Based on Pretreatment Risk Factors among Cancer Patients

PubMed Central

Aagaard, Theis; Roen, Ashley; Daugaard, Gedske; Brown, Peter; Sengeløv, Henrik; Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens; Helleberg, Marie

2017-01-01

Abstract Background Febrile neutropenia (FN) is a common complication to chemotherapy associated with a high burden of morbidity and mortality. Reliable prediction of individual risk based on pretreatment risk factors allows for stratification of preventive interventions. We aimed to develop such a risk stratification model to predict FN in the 30 days after initiation of chemotherapy. Methods We included consecutive treatment-naïve patients with solid cancers and diffuse large B-cell lymphomas at Copenhagen University Hospital, 2010–2015. Data were obtained from the PERSIMUNE repository of electronic health records. FN was defined as neutrophils ≤0.5 × 10E9/L ​at the time of either a blood culture sample or death. Time from initiation of chemotherapy to FN was analyzed using Fine-Gray models with death as a competing event. Risk factors investigated were: age, sex, body surface area, haemoglobin, albumin, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and chemotherapy drugs. Parameter estimates were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The scores were grouped into four: low, intermediate, high and very high risk. Results Among 8,585 patients, 467 experienced FN, incidence rate/30 person-days 0.05 (95% CI, 0.05–0.06). Age (1 point if > 65 years), albumin (1 point if < 39 g/L), CCI (1 point if > 2) and chemotherapy (range -5 to 6 points/drug) predicted FN. Median score at inclusion was 2 points (range –5 to 9). The cumulative incidence and the incidence rates and hazard ratios of FN are shown in Figure 1 and Table 1, respectively. Conclusion We developed a risk score to predict FN the first month after initiation of chemotherapy. The score is easy to use and provides good differentiation of risk groups; the score needs independent validation before routine use. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

Quantifying the impact of using Coronary Artery Calcium Score for risk categorization instead of Framingham Score or European Heart SCORE in lipid lowering algorithms in a Middle Eastern population

PubMed Central

Isma’eel, Hussain A.; Almedawar, Mohamad M.; Harbieh, Bernard; Alajaji, Wissam; Al-Shaar, Laila; Hourani, Mukbil; El-Merhi, Fadi; Alam, Samir; Abchee, Antoine

2015-01-01

Background The use of the Coronary Artery Calcium Score (CACS) for risk categorization instead of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or European Heart SCORE (EHS) to improve classification of individuals is well documented. However, the impact of reclassifying individuals using CACS on initiating lipid lowering therapy is not well understood. We aimed to determine the percentage of individuals not requiring lipid lowering therapy as per the FRS and EHS models but are found to require it using CACS and vice versa; and to determine the level of agreement between CACS, FRS and EHS based models. Methods Data was collected for 500 consecutive patients who had already undergone CACS. However, only 242 patients met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. Risk stratification comparisons were conducted according to CACS, FRS, and EHS, and the agreement (Kappa) between them was calculated. Results In accordance with the models, 79.7% to 81.5% of high-risk individuals were down-classified by CACS, while 6.8% to 7.6% of individuals at intermediate risk were up-classified to high risk by CACS, with slight to moderate agreement. Moreover, CACS recommended treatment to 5.7% and 5.8% of subjects untreated according to European and Canadian guidelines, respectively; whereas 75.2% to 81.2% of those treated in line with the guidelines would not be treated based on CACS. Conclusion In this simulation, using CACS for risk categorization warrants lipid lowering treatment for 5–6% and spares 70–80% from treatment in accordance with the guidelines. Current strong evidence from double randomized clinical trials is in support of guideline recommendations. Our results call for a prospective trial to explore the benefits/risks of a CACS-based approach before any recommendations can be made. PMID:26557741

Delay discounting, risk-taking, and rejection sensitivity among individuals with Internet and Video Gaming Disorders.

PubMed

Weinstein, Aviv; Abu, Hodaya Ben; Timor, Ayelet; Mama, Yaniv

2016-12-01

Background and aims There is a previous evidence for impulsivity in individuals with Internet and Video Gaming Disorders. The aim of this study was to examine whether Internet and video game addictions are associated with experiential delay discounting, risk-taking, and sensitivity to social rejection using computerized tasks and questionnaires. Methods Twenty participants (mean age 24, SD = 1.55) with high score on the Problematic Online Gaming Questionnaire (POGQ) were compared with 20 participants (mean age 24.8, SD = 1.34) with low score on the POGQ. They performed on computerized Balloon Analog Risk Task and Experiential Delay discounting Task (EDT), and filled in the sensitivity to social rejection questionnaire. Results Participants with high POGQ scores had lower measures of delay discounting, higher measures of risk-taking, and higher measures of sensitivity to social rejection compared with participants with low POGQ scores. Discussion The results of this study support the previous evidence of risk-taking and provide new evidence for difficulties in delay discounting and sensitivity to social rejection among those who score high on Internet and video games. Conclusions The results suggest that Internet- and video game-addicted individuals seek immediate gratification and cannot wait for later reward. Furthermore, these individuals spend time in the virtual world, where they feel safe, and avoid social interactions presumably due to fears of social rejection.

Automated coronary artery calcification detection on low-dose chest CT images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yiting; Cham, Matthew D.; Henschke, Claudia; Yankelevitz, David; Reeves, Anthony P.

2014-03-01

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) measurement from low-dose CT images can be used to assess the risk of coronary artery disease. A fully automatic algorithm to detect and measure CAC from low-dose non-contrast, non-ECG-gated chest CT scans is presented. Based on the automatically detected CAC, the Agatston score (AS), mass score and volume score were computed. These were compared with scores obtained manually from standard-dose ECG-gated scans and low-dose un-gated scans of the same patient. The automatic algorithm segments the heart region based on other pre-segmented organs to provide a coronary region mask. The mitral valve and aortic valve calcification is identified and excluded. All remaining voxels greater than 180HU within the mask region are considered as CAC candidates. The heart segmentation algorithm was evaluated on 400 non-contrast cases with both low-dose and regular dose CT scans. By visual inspection, 371 (92.8%) of the segmentations were acceptable. The automated CAC detection algorithm was evaluated on 41 low-dose non-contrast CT scans. Manual markings were performed on both low-dose and standard-dose scans for these cases. Using linear regression, the correlation of the automatic AS with the standard-dose manual scores was 0.86; with the low-dose manual scores the correlation was 0.91. Standard risk categories were also computed. The automated method risk category agreed with manual markings of gated scans for 24 cases while 15 cases were 1 category off. For low-dose scans, the automatic method agreed with 33 cases while 7 cases were 1 category off.

Molecular risk assessment of BIG 1-98 participants by expression profiling using RNA from archival tissue

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The purpose of the work reported here is to test reliable molecular profiles using routinely processed formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues from participants of the clinical trial BIG 1-98 with a median follow-up of 60 months. Methods RNA from fresh frozen (FF) and FFPE tumor samples of 82 patients were used for quality control, and independent FFPE tissues of 342 postmenopausal participants of BIG 1-98 with ER-positive cancer were analyzed by measuring prospectively selected genes and computing scores representing the functions of the estrogen receptor (eight genes, ER_8), the progesterone receptor (five genes, PGR_5), Her2 (two genes, HER2_2), and proliferation (ten genes, PRO_10) by quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) on TaqMan Low Density Arrays. Molecular scores were computed for each category and ER_8, PGR_5, HER2_2, and PRO_10 scores were combined into a RISK_25 score. Results Pearson correlation coefficients between FF- and FFPE-derived scores were at least 0.94 and high concordance was observed between molecular scores and immunohistochemical data. The HER2_2, PGR_5, PRO_10 and RISK_25 scores were significant predictors of disease free-survival (DFS) in univariate Cox proportional hazard regression. PRO_10 and RISK_25 scores predicted DFS in patients with histological grade II breast cancer and in lymph node positive disease. The PRO_10 and PGR_5 scores were independent predictors of DFS in multivariate Cox regression models incorporating clinical risk indicators; PRO_10 outperformed Ki-67 labeling index in multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses. Conclusions Scores representing the endocrine responsiveness and proliferation status of breast cancers were developed from gene expression analyses based on RNA derived from FFPE tissues. The validation of the molecular scores with tumor samples of participants of the BIG 1-98 trial demonstrates that such scores can serve as independent prognostic factors to estimate disease free survival (DFS) in postmenopausal patients with estrogen receptor positive breast cancer. Trial Registration Current Controlled Trials: NCT00004205 PMID:20144231

An instrument for broadened risk assessment in antenatal health care including non-medical issues

PubMed Central

Vos, Amber A.; van Veen, Mieke J.; Birnie, Erwin; Denktaş, Semiha; Steegers, Eric A.P.; Bonsel, Gouke J.

2015-01-01

Introduction Growing evidence on the risk contributing role of non-medical factors on pregnancy outcomes urged for a new approach in early antenatal risk selection. The evidence invites to more integration, in particular between the clinical working area and the public health domain. We developed a non-invasive, standardized instrument for comprehensive antenatal risk assessment. The current study presents the application-oriented development of a risk screening instrument for early antenatal detection of risk factors and tailored prevention in an integrated care setting. Methods A review of published instruments complemented with evidence from cohort studies. Selection and standardization of risk factors associated with small for gestational age, preterm birth, congenital anomalies and perinatal mortality. Risk factors were weighted to obtain a cumulative risk score. Responses were then connected to corresponding care pathways. A cumulative risk threshold was defined, which can be adapted to the population and the availability of preventive facilities. A score above the threshold implies multidisciplinary consultation between caregivers. Results The resulting digital score card consisted of 70 items, subdivided into four non-medical and two medical domains. Weighing of risk factors was based on existing evidence. Pilot-evidence from a cohort of 218 pregnancies in a multi-practice urban setting showed a cut-off of 16 points would imply 20% of all pregnant women to be assessed in a multidisciplinary setting. A total of 28 care pathways were defined. Conclusion The resulting score card is a universal risk screening instrument which incorporates recent evidence on non-medical risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes and enables systematic risk management in an integrated antenatal health care setting. PMID:25780351

Tetrapods on the EDGE: Overcoming data limitations to identify phylogenetic conservation priorities

PubMed Central

Gray, Claudia L.; Wearn, Oliver R.; Owen, Nisha R.

2018-01-01

The scale of the ongoing biodiversity crisis requires both effective conservation prioritisation and urgent action. As extinction is non-random across the tree of life, it is important to prioritise threatened species which represent large amounts of evolutionary history. The EDGE metric prioritises species based on their Evolutionary Distinctiveness (ED), which measures the relative contribution of a species to the total evolutionary history of their taxonomic group, and Global Endangerment (GE), or extinction risk. EDGE prioritisations rely on adequate phylogenetic and extinction risk data to generate meaningful priorities for conservation. However, comprehensive phylogenetic trees of large taxonomic groups are extremely rare and, even when available, become quickly out-of-date due to the rapid rate of species descriptions and taxonomic revisions. Thus, it is important that conservationists can use the available data to incorporate evolutionary history into conservation prioritisation. We compared published and new methods to estimate missing ED scores for species absent from a phylogenetic tree whilst simultaneously correcting the ED scores of their close taxonomic relatives. We found that following artificial removal of species from a phylogenetic tree, the new method provided the closest estimates of their “true” ED score, differing from the true ED score by an average of less than 1%, compared to the 31% and 38% difference of the previous methods. The previous methods also substantially under- and over-estimated scores as more species were artificially removed from a phylogenetic tree. We therefore used the new method to estimate ED scores for all tetrapods. From these scores we updated EDGE prioritisation rankings for all tetrapod species with IUCN Red List assessments, including the first EDGE prioritisation for reptiles. Further, we identified criteria to identify robust priority species in an effort to further inform conservation action whilst limiting uncertainty and anticipating future phylogenetic advances. PMID:29641585

Utility of genetic and non-genetic risk factors in predicting coronary heart disease in Singaporean Chinese.

PubMed

Chang, Xuling; Salim, Agus; Dorajoo, Rajkumar; Han, Yi; Khor, Chiea-Chuen; van Dam, Rob M; Yuan, Jian-Min; Koh, Woon-Puay; Liu, Jianjun; Goh, Daniel Yt; Wang, Xu; Teo, Yik-Ying; Friedlander, Yechiel; Heng, Chew-Kiat

2017-01-01

Background Although numerous phenotype based equations for predicting risk of 'hard' coronary heart disease are available, data on the utility of genetic information for such risk prediction is lacking in Chinese populations. Design Case-control study nested within the Singapore Chinese Health Study. Methods A total of 1306 subjects comprising 836 men (267 incident cases and 569 controls) and 470 women (128 incident cases and 342 controls) were included. A Genetic Risk Score comprising 156 single nucleotide polymorphisms that have been robustly associated with coronary heart disease or its risk factors ( p < 5 × 10 -8 ) in at least two independent cohorts of genome-wide association studies was built. For each gender, three base models were used: recalibrated Adult Treatment Panel III (ATPIII) Model (M 1 ); ATP III model fitted using Singapore Chinese Health Study data (M 2 ) and M 3 : M 2 + C-reactive protein + creatinine. Results The Genetic Risk Score was significantly associated with incident 'hard' coronary heart disease ( p for men: 1.70 × 10 -10 -1.73 × 10 -9 ; p for women: 0.001). The inclusion of the Genetic Risk Score in the prediction models improved discrimination in both genders (c-statistics: 0.706-0.722 vs. 0.663-0.695 from base models for men; 0.788-0.790 vs. 0.765-0.773 for women). In addition, the inclusion of the Genetic Risk Score also improved risk classification with a net gain of cases being reclassified to higher risk categories (men: 12.4%-16.5%; women: 10.2% (M 3 )), while not significantly reducing the classification accuracy in controls. Conclusions The Genetic Risk Score is an independent predictor for incident 'hard' coronary heart disease in our ethnic Chinese population. Inclusion of genetic factors into coronary heart disease prediction models could significantly improve risk prediction performance.

Rockall score in predicting outcomes of elderly patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

PubMed Central

Wang, Chang-Yuan; Qin, Jian; Wang, Jing; Sun, Chang-Yi; Cao, Tao; Zhu, Dan-Dan

2013-01-01

AIM: To validate the clinical Rockall score in predicting outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and mortality) in elderly patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). METHODS: A retrospective analysis was undertaken in 341 patients admitted to the emergency room and Intensive Care Unit of Xuanwu Hospital of Capital Medical University with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The Rockall scores were calculated, and the association between clinical Rockall scores and patient outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and mortality) was assessed. Based on the Rockall scores, patients were divided into three risk categories: low risk ≤ 3, moderate risk 3-4, high risk ≥ 4, and the percentages of rebleeding/death/surgery in each risk category were compared. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to assess the validity of the Rockall system in predicting rebleeding, surgery and mortality of patients with AUGIB. RESULTS: A positive linear correlation between clinical Rockall scores and patient outcomes in terms of rebleeding, surgery and mortality was observed (r = 0.962, 0.955 and 0.946, respectively, P = 0.001). High clinical Rockall scores > 3 were associated with adverse outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and death). There was a significant correlation between high Rockall scores and the occurrence of rebleeding, surgery and mortality in the entire patient population (χ2 = 49.29, 23.10 and 27.64, respectively, P = 0.001). For rebleeding, the area under the ROC curve was 0.788 (95%CI: 0.726-0.849, P = 0.001); For surgery, the area under the ROC curve was 0.752 (95%CI: 0.679-0.825, P = 0.001) and for mortality, the area under the ROC curve was 0.787 (95%CI: 0.716-0.859, P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: The Rockall score is clinically useful, rapid and accurate in predicting rebleeding, surgery and mortality outcomes in elderly patients with AUGIB. PMID:23801840

Mortality risk score prediction in an elderly population using machine learning.

PubMed

Rose, Sherri

2013-03-01

Standard practice for prediction often relies on parametric regression methods. Interesting new methods from the machine learning literature have been introduced in epidemiologic studies, such as random forest and neural networks. However, a priori, an investigator will not know which algorithm to select and may wish to try several. Here I apply the super learner, an ensembling machine learning approach that combines multiple algorithms into a single algorithm and returns a prediction function with the best cross-validated mean squared error. Super learning is a generalization of stacking methods. I used super learning in the Study of Physical Performance and Age-Related Changes in Sonomans (SPPARCS) to predict death among 2,066 residents of Sonoma, California, aged 54 years or more during the period 1993-1999. The super learner for predicting death (risk score) improved upon all single algorithms in the collection of algorithms, although its performance was similar to that of several algorithms. Super learner outperformed the worst algorithm (neural networks) by 44% with respect to estimated cross-validated mean squared error and had an R2 value of 0.201. The improvement of super learner over random forest with respect to R2 was approximately 2-fold. Alternatives for risk score prediction include the super learner, which can provide improved performance.

Predictors of Colorectal Cancer Knowledge among Adults in the United Arab Emirates

PubMed

Al-Sharbatti, Shatha; Muttappallymyalil, Jayakumary; Sreedharan, Jayadevan; Almosawy, Yasien

2017-09-27

Objective: To assess knowledge regarding colorectal cancer (CRC) and to identify its predictors in the UAE. Materials and Methods: A cross sectional study was conducted among subjects ≥ 50 years-old, using a validated self-administered questionnaire. Awareness of CRC risk factors, warning signs/symptoms (S/S), and screening methods was evaluated with a level of knowledge score for various areas. Low (poor) knowledge was defined as a score below the corresponding average value. The Chi-square test and logistic regression were used in the statistical analysis. Results: The percentage of respondents who had poor knowledge score concerning risk factors, warning S/S and screening were 81.7%, 84.7% and 94.1% respectively. Male and lower education level subjects had significantly higher probability of low knowledge related to risk factors and warning S/S. Also respondents without a family history of CRC or personal history of polyps had a significantly higher probability of low knowledge concerning warning S/S compared to those who had a positive history. Significantly higher probability of low knowledge concerning screening methods was noted among non-Arabs and subjects with a lower education level. Conclusion: Most of the respondents had poor knowledge. Gender, education level, family and personal history and ethnicity were found to be significant predictors of CRC knowledge. Creative Commons Attribution License

Predictors of Colorectal Cancer Knowledge among Adults in the United Arab Emirates

PubMed Central

Al-Sharbatti, Shatha; Muttappallymyalil, Jayakumary; Sreedharan, Jayadevan; Almosawy, Yasien

2017-01-01

Objective: To assess knowledge regarding colorectal cancer (CRC) and to identify its predictors in the UAE. Materials and Methods: A cross sectional study was conducted among subjects ≥ 50 years-old, using a validated self-administered questionnaire. Awareness of CRC risk factors, warning signs/symptoms (S/S), and screening methods was evaluated with a level of knowledge score for various areas. Low (poor) knowledge was defined as a score below the corresponding average value. The Chi-square test and logistic regression were used in the statistical analysis. Results: The percentage of respondents who had poor knowledge score concerning risk factors, warning S/S and screening were 81.7%, 84.7% and 94.1% respectively. Male and lower education level subjects had significantly higher probability of low knowledge related to risk factors and warning S/S. Also respondents without a family history of CRC or personal history of polyps had a significantly higher probability of low knowledge concerning warning S/S compared to those who had a positive history. Significantly higher probability of low knowledge concerning screening methods was noted among non-Arabs and subjects with a lower education level. Conclusion: Most of the respondents had poor knowledge. Gender, education level, family and personal history and ethnicity were found to be significant predictors of CRC knowledge. PMID:28950678

Risk Factors and Predictive Clinical Scores for Asthma Exacerbations in Childhood

PubMed Central

Forno, Erick; Fuhlbrigge, Anne; Soto-Quirós, Manuel E.; Avila, Lydiana; Raby, Benjamin A.; Brehm, John; Sylvia, Jody M.; Weiss, Scott T.

2010-01-01

Background: Asthma is a major public health problem that affects millions of children worldwide, and exacerbations account for most of its morbidity and costs. Primary-care providers lack efficient tools to identify children at high risk for exacerbations. We aimed to construct a clinical score to help providers to identify such children. Methods: Our main outcome was severe asthma exacerbation, which was defined as any hospitalization, urgent visit, or systemic steroid course for asthma in the previous year, in children. A clinical score, consisting of a checklist questionnaire made up of 17 yes-no questions regarding asthma symptoms, use of medications and health-care services, and history, was built and validated in a cross-sectional study of Costa Rican children with asthma. It was then evaluated using data from the Childhood Asthma Management Program (CAMP), a longitudinal trial cohort of North American children. Results: Compared with children at average risk for an exacerbation in the Costa Rican validation set, the odds of an exacerbation among children in the low-risk (OR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.1-0.4) and high-risk (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 1.5-19.2) score categories were significantly reduced and increased, respectively. In CAMP, the hazard ratios for an exacerbation after 1-year follow-up in the low-risk and high-risk groups were 0.6 (95% CI, 0.5-0.7) and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.4-2.4), respectively, with similar results at 2 years. Conclusions: The proposed Asthma Exacerbation Clinical Score is simple to use and effective at identifying children at high and low risk for asthma exacerbations. The tool can easily be used in primary-care settings. PMID:20472862

GRECOS Project (Genotyping Recurrence Risk of Stroke): The Use of Genetics to Predict the Vascular Recurrence After Stroke.

PubMed

Fernández-Cadenas, Israel; Mendióroz, Maite; Giralt, Dolors; Nafria, Cristina; Garcia, Elena; Carrera, Caty; Gallego-Fabrega, Cristina; Domingues-Montanari, Sophie; Delgado, Pilar; Ribó, Marc; Castellanos, Mar; Martínez, Sergi; Freijo, Marimar; Jiménez-Conde, Jordi; Rubiera, Marta; Alvarez-Sabín, José; Molina, Carlos A; Font, Maria Angels; Grau Olivares, Marta; Palomeras, Ernest; Perez de la Ossa, Natalia; Martinez-Zabaleta, Maite; Masjuan, Jaime; Moniche, Francisco; Canovas, David; Piñana, Carlos; Purroy, Francisco; Cocho, Dolores; Navas, Inma; Tejero, Carlos; Aymerich, Nuria; Cullell, Natalia; Muiño, Elena; Serena, Joaquín; Rubio, Francisco; Davalos, Antoni; Roquer, Jaume; Arenillas, Juan Francisco; Martí-Fábregas, Joan; Keene, Keith; Chen, Wei-Min; Worrall, Bradford; Sale, Michele; Arboix, Adrià; Krupinski, Jerzy; Montaner, Joan

2017-05-01

Vascular recurrence occurs in 11% of patients during the first year after ischemic stroke (IS) or transient ischemic attack. Clinical scores do not predict the whole vascular recurrence risk; therefore, we aimed to find genetic variants associated with recurrence that might improve the clinical predictive models in IS. We analyzed 256 polymorphisms from 115 candidate genes in 3 patient cohorts comprising 4482 IS or transient ischemic attack patients. The discovery cohort was prospectively recruited and included 1494 patients, 6.2% of them developed a new IS during the first year of follow-up. Replication analysis was performed in 2988 patients using SNPlex or HumanOmni1-Quad technology. We generated a predictive model using Cox regression (GRECOS score [Genotyping Reurrence Risk of Stroke]) and generated risk groups using a classification tree method. The analyses revealed that rs1800801 in the MGP gene (hazard ratio, 1.33; P =9×10 - 03 ), a gene related to artery calcification, was associated with new IS during the first year of follow-up. This polymorphism was replicated in a Spanish cohort (n=1.305); however, it was not significantly associated in a North American cohort (n=1.683). The GRECOS score predicted new IS ( P =3.2×10 - 09 ) and could classify patients, from low risk of stroke recurrence (1.9%) to high risk (12.6%). Moreover, the addition of genetic risk factors to the GRECOS score improves the prediction compared with previous Stroke Prognosis Instrument-II score ( P =0.03). The use of genetics could be useful to estimate vascular recurrence risk after IS. Genetic variability in the MGP gene was associated with vascular recurrence in the Spanish population. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

The risk of coronary artery disease estimated non-invasively in patients with essential hypertension environmentally exposed to cigarette smoke.

PubMed

Gać, Paweł; Jaźwiec, Przemysław; Poręba, Małgorzata; Mazur, Grzegorz; Pawlas, Krystyna; Sobieszczańska, Małgorzata; Poręba, Rafał

2017-12-01

The relationship between environmental exposure of non-smokers to cigarette smoke and the coronary artery calcium scores has not been sufficiently documented. The aim of the study was to identify the relationship between environmental exposure to cigarette smoke and the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) estimated non-invasively through measurement of coronary artery calcium score by computed tomography in patients with essential hypertension. The study was conducted on 67 patients with essential hypertension, non-smokers environmentally exposed to cigarette smoke (group A) and on 67 patients with essential hypertension, non-smokers not exposed to cigarette smoke (group B), selected using the case to case. Environmental exposure to cigarette smoke was evaluated using a questionnaire. The risk of development of coronary artery disease was estimated non-invasively through measurement of coronary artery calcium score (CA CS ) by computed tomography. Group A was characterised by significantly higher CA CS and left anterior descending (LAD CS ) calcium scores than group B. Compared to group B, group A had significantly higher percentage of patients with significant risk of CAD estimated on the basis of CA CS values, and significantly lower percentage of patients with practically no risk of CAD estimated with the same method. Advanced age, peripheral artery diseases and environmental exposure to cigarette smoke are independent risk factors associated with increased CA CS and LAD CS values. In addition, higher BMI and hypercholesterolemia are independent risk factors for increased values of LAD CS . In patients with essential hypertension environmental exposure to cigarette smoke may result in elevated risk of coronary artery disease estimated non-invasively through measurement of coronary artery calcium score by computed tomography. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unanswered questions for management of acute coronary syndrome: risk stratification of patients with minimal disease or normal findings on coronary angiography.

PubMed

Bugiardini, Raffaele; Manfrini, Olivia; De Ferrari, Gaetano M

2006-07-10

The prognostic implication of chest pain associated with normal or near-normal findings on angiography is still unknown. We explored outcomes and methods of risk stratification in patients with nonobstructive coronary artery disease in the setting of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes. Data were pooled from 3 Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trials (TIMI 11B, TIMI 16, and TIMI 22). Angiographic data were available on 7656 patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes. The primary end point of this analysis was the composite of the rates of death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina requiring rehospitalization, revascularization, and stroke at 1-year follow-up. Outcomes were evaluated by mean of the TIMI risk score for developing at least 1 component of the primary end point. Angiographic findings showed that 710 (9.1%) of 7656 patients had nonobstructive coronary artery disease; 48.7% of these had normal coronary arteries (0% stenosis), and 51.3% had mild coronary artery disease (>0% to <50% stenosis). A primary end-point event occurred in 101 patients (12.1%). It is noteworthy that a 2% event rate of deaths and myocardial infarctions had occurred in these patients at the 1-year follow-up. Event rates of death and myocardial infarction increased significantly as the TIMI risk score increased from 0.6% for a score of 1 to 4.0% for a score greater than 4. Patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes with nonobstructive coronary artery disease detected by angiography have a substantial risk of subsequent coronary events within 1 year. The risk is not univariately high, and the TIMI risk score helps to reveal patients at high risk.

Risk stratification of periprocedural myocardial infarction after percutaneous coronary intervention: Analysis based on the SCAI definition.

PubMed

Zhang, Dong; Li, Yiping; Yin, Dong; He, Yuan; Chen, Changzhe; Song, Chenxi; Yan, Ruohua; Zhu, Chen'gang; Xu, Bo; Dou, Kefei

2017-03-01

To investigate the predictors of and generate a risk prediction method for periprocedural myocardial infarction (PMI) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using the new PMI definition proposed by the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions (SCAI). The SCAI-defined PMI was found to be associated with worse prognosis than the PMI diagnosed by other definitions. However, few large-sample studies have attempted to predict the risk of SCAI-defined PMI. A total of 3,371 patients (3,516 selective PCIs) were included in this single-center retrospective analysis. The diagnostic criteria for PMI were set according to the SCAI definition. All clinical characteristics, coronary angiography findings and PCI procedural factors were collected. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of PMI. To evaluate the risk of PMI, a multivariable risk score (PMI score) was constructed with incremental weights attributed to each component variable according to their estimated coefficients. PMI occurred in 108 (3.1%) of all patients. Age, multivessel treatment, at least one bifurcation treatment and total treated lesion length were independent predictors of SCAI-defined PMI. PMI scores ranged from 0 to 20. The C-statistic of PMI score was 0.71 (95% confidence interval: 0.66-0.76). PMI rates increased significantly from 1.96% in the non-high-risk group (PMI score < 10) to 6.26% in the high-risk group (PMI score ≥ 10) (P < 0.001). Age, multivessel treatment, at least one bifurcation treatment, and total treated lesion length are predictive of PMI. The PMI score could help identify patients at high risk of PMI after PCI. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A genetic risk score based on direct associations with coronary heart disease improves coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), but not in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring, Studies

PubMed Central

Brautbar, Ariel; Pompeii, Lisa A.; Dehghan, Abbas; Ngwa, Julius S.; Nambi, Vijay; Virani, Salim S.; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Uitterlinden, André G.; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline C.M.; Pencina, Michael J.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Cupples, L. Adrienne; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Boerwinkle, Eric

2013-01-01

Objective Multiple studies have identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined whether SNPs selected based on predefined criteria will improve CHD risk prediction when added to traditional risk factors (TRFs). Methods SNPs were selected from the literature based on association with CHD, lack of association with a known CHD risk factor, and successful replication. A genetic risk score (GRS) was constructed based on these SNPs. Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate CHD risk based on the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Framingham CHD risk scores with and without the GRS. Results The GRS was associated with risk for CHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07–1.13). Addition of the GRS to the ARIC risk score significantly improved discrimination, reclassification, and calibration beyond that afforded by TRFs alone in non-Hispanic whites in the ARIC study. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased from 0.742 to 0.749 (Δ= 0.007; 95% CI, 0.004–0.013), and the net reclassification index (NRI) was 6.3%. Although the risk estimates for CHD in the Framingham Offspring (HR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.10–1.14) and Rotterdam (HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02–1.14) Studies were significantly improved by adding the GRS to TRFs, improvements in AUC and NRI were modest. Conclusion Addition of a GRS based on direct associations with CHD to TRFs significantly improved discrimination and reclassification in white participants of the ARIC Study, with no significant improvement in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring Studies. PMID:22789513

Predicted 25(OH)D score and colorectal cancer risk according to vitamin D receptor expression.

PubMed

Jung, Seungyoun; Qian, Zhi Rong; Yamauchi, Mai; Bertrand, Kimberly A; Fitzgerald, Kathryn C; Inamura, Kentaro; Kim, Sun A; Mima, Kosuke; Sukawa, Yasutaka; Zhang, Xuehong; Wang, Molin; Smith-Warner, Stephanie A; Wu, Kana; Fuchs, Charles S; Chan, Andrew T; Giovannucci, Edward L; Ng, Kimmie; Cho, Eunyoung; Ogino, Shuji; Nishihara, Reiko

2014-08-01

Despite accumulating evidence for the preventive effect of vitamin D on colorectal carcinogenesis, its precise mechanisms remain unclear. We hypothesized that vitamin D was associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer with high-level vitamin D receptor (VDR) expression, but not with risk of tumor with low-level VDR expression. Among 140,418 participants followed from 1986 through 2008 in the Nurses' Health Study and the Health Professionals' Follow-up Study, we identified 1,059 incident colorectal cancer cases with tumor molecular data. The predicted 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] score was developed using the known determinants of plasma 25(OH)D. We estimated the HR for cancer subtypes using the duplication method Cox proportional hazards model. A higher predicted 25(OH)D score was associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer irrespective of VDR expression level (P(heterogeneity) for subtypes = 0.75). Multivariate HRs (95% confidence intervals) comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of predicted 25(OH)D scores were 0.48 (0.30-0.78) for VDR-negative tumor and 0.56 (0.42-0.75) for VDR-positive tumor. Similarly, the significant inverse associations of the predicted 25(OH)D score with colorectal cancer risk did not significantly differ by KRAS, BRAF, or PIK3CA status (P(heterogeneity) for subtypes ≥ 0.22). A higher predicted vitamin D score was significantly associated with a lower colorectal cancer risk, regardless of VDR status and other molecular features examined. The preventive effect of vitamin D on colorectal carcinogenesis may not totally depend on tumor factors. Host factors (such as local and systemic immunity) may need to be considered. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

Patient preferences for diabetes-related complications in Taiwan.

PubMed

Lin, Yi-Ju; Wang, Chin-Yuan; Cheng, Ssu-Wei; Ko, Yu

2018-05-25

As the prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) continues to increase rapidly, there has been a rising need not only to assess the clinical outcomes but also the impact of DM on the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of affected individuals. Most previous studies have found that having complications is strongly associated with decreased HRQoL in DM patients. As such, it is crucial to measure individuals' preferences for DM-related complications in order to assess the magnitude of complications' effect on overall HRQoL. In addition, preference scores are an essential component of cost-utility analyses (CUAs), which studies can incorporate healthcare costs, HRQoL and clinical outcomes of DM into one analysis. The aims of this study were to assess the preference scores of DM-related complications using both the standard gamble (SG), a choice-based method, and visual analogue scale (VAS), a scaling method. We also aimed to assess several possible factors that might be associated with the preference scores of the complications. This is a cross-sectional interview-administered survey, and 213 patients with type 2 DM were interviewed. The respondents' preference scores of eleven DM-related complications were obtained using VAS and SG techniques. Demographic information, clinical characteristics and risk attitudes were also collected to explore factors that may affect patients' preference scores. Nearly one quarter of participants in Taiwan ranked at least one of the complications worse than death. The mean VAS scores ranged from 0.004 (amputation) to 0.47 (nocturnal hypoglycemia) while the mean adjusted SG scores ranged from 0.30 (blindness) to 0.66 (nocturnal hypoglycemia). There were significant differences in all of the complications' preference scores depending on risk attitudes. Both the VAS and SG methods were used to elicit the preference scores of DM-related complications, and the preference scores derived could be useful for future cost utility analyses.

Application of multi-criteria decision-making to risk prioritisation in tidal energy developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolios, Athanasios; Read, George; Ioannou, Anastasia

2016-01-01

This paper presents an analytical multi-criterion analysis for the prioritisation of risks for the development of tidal energy projects. After a basic identification of risks throughout the project and relevant stakeholders in the UK, classified through a political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental analysis, relevant questionnaires provided scores to each risk and corresponding weights for each of the different sectors. Employing an extended technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution as well as the weighted sum method based on the data obtained, the risks identified are ranked based on their criticality, drawing attention of the industry in mitigating the ones scoring higher. Both methods were modified to take averages at different stages of the analysis in order to observe the effects on the final risk ranking. A sensitivity analysis of the results was also carried out with regard to the weighting factors given to the perceived expertise of participants, with different results being obtained whether a linear, squared or square root regression is used. Results of the study show that academics and industry have conflicting opinions with regard to the perception of the most critical risks.

Substantial improvement of primary cardiovascular prevention by a systematic score-based multimodal approach: A randomized trial: The PreFord-Study.

PubMed

Gysan, Detlef Bernd; Millentrup, Stefanie; Albus, Christian; Bjarnason-Wehrens, Birna; Latsch, Joachim; Gohlke, Helmut; Herold, Gerd; Wegscheider, Karl; Heming, Christian; Seyfarth, Melchior; Predel, Hans-Georg

2017-09-01

Trial design Prospective randomized multicentre interventional study. Methods Individual cardiovascular risk assessment in Ford Company, Germany employees ( n = 4.196), using the European Society of Cardiology-Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (ESC-SCORE) for classification into three risk groups. Subjects assigned to ESC high-risk group (ESC-SCORE ≥ 5%), without a history of cardiovascular disease were eligible for randomization to a multimodal 15-week intervention programme (INT) or to usual care and followed up for 36 months. Objectives Evaluation of the long-term effects of a risk-adjusted multimodal intervention in high-risk subjects. Primary endpoint: reduction of ESC-SCORE in INT versus usual care. Secondary endpoints: composite of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events and time to first cardiovascular event. intention-to-treat and per-protocol analysis. Results Four hundred and forty-seven subjects were randomized to INT ( n = 224) or to usual care ( n = 223). After 36 months ESC-SCORE development favouring INT was observed (INT: 8.70% to 10.03% vs. usual care: 8.49% to 12.09%; p = 0.005; net difference: 18.50%). Moreover, a significant reduction in the composite cardiovascular events was observed: (INT: n = 11 vs. usual care: n = 27). Hazard ratio of intervention versus control was 0.51 (95% confidence interval 0.25-1.03; p = 0.062) in the intention-to-treat analysis and 0.41 (95% confidence interval 0.18-0.90; p = 0.026) in the per-protocol analysis, respectively. No intervention-related adverse events or side-effects were observed. Conclusions Our results demonstrate the efficiency of identifying cardiovascular high-risk subjects by the ESC-SCORE in order to enrol them to a risk adjusted primary prevention programme. This strategy resulted in a significant improvement of ESC-SCORE, as well as a reduction in predefined cardiovascular endpoints in the INT within 36 months. (ISRCTN 23536103.).

Comparative study of joint analysis of microarray gene expression data in survival prediction and risk assessment of breast cancer patients

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Abstract Microarray gene expression data sets are jointly analyzed to increase statistical power. They could either be merged together or analyzed by meta-analysis. For a given ensemble of data sets, it cannot be foreseen which of these paradigms, merging or meta-analysis, works better. In this article, three joint analysis methods, Z -score normalization, ComBat and the inverse normal method (meta-analysis) were selected for survival prognosis and risk assessment of breast cancer patients. The methods were applied to eight microarray gene expression data sets, totaling 1324 patients with two clinical endpoints, overall survival and relapse-free survival. The performance derived from the joint analysis methods was evaluated using Cox regression for survival analysis and independent validation used as bias estimation. Overall, Z -score normalization had a better performance than ComBat and meta-analysis. Higher Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve and hazard ratio were also obtained when independent validation was used as bias estimation. With a lower time and memory complexity, Z -score normalization is a simple method for joint analysis of microarray gene expression data sets. The derived findings suggest further assessment of this method in future survival prediction and cancer classification applications. PMID:26504096

The Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score: Update 2015

PubMed Central

Pollack, Murray M.; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Dean, J. Michael; Berger, John T.; Wessel, David L.; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A.; Newth, Christopher J. L.; Harrison, Rick E.; Carcillo, Joseph; Dalton, Heidi; Shanley, Thomas; Jenkins, Tammara L.; Tamburro, Robert

2016-01-01

Objectives Severity of illness measures have long been used in pediatric critical care. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality is a physiologically based score used to quantify physiologic status, and when combined with other independent variables, it can compute expected mortality risk and expected morbidity risk. Although the physiologic ranges for the Pediatric Risk of Mortality variables have not changed, recent Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection improvements have been made to adapt to new practice patterns, minimize bias, and reduce potential sources of error. These include changing the outcome to hospital survival/death for the first PICU admission only, shortening the data collection period and altering the Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection period for patients admitted for “optimizing” care before cardiac surgery or interventional catheterization. This analysis incorporates those changes, assesses the potential for Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable subcategories to improve score performance, and recalibrates the Pediatric Risk of Mortality score, placing the algorithms (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) in the public domain. Design Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013. Measurements and Main Results Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted mortality rate was 2.7% (site range, 1.3–5.0%). Data were divided into derivation (75%) and validation (25%) sets. The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality prediction algorithm (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) includes the same Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable ranges with the subcategories of neurologic and nonneurologic Pediatric Risk of Mortality scores, age, admission source, cardiopulmonary arrest within 24 hours before admission, cancer, and low-risk systems of primary dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the development and validation sets was 0.88 ± 0.013 and 0.90 ± 0.018, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit statistics indicated adequate model fit for both the development (p = 0.39) and validation (p = 0.50) sets. Conclusions The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection methods include significant improvements that minimize the potential for bias and errors, and the new Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV algorithm for survival and death has excellent prediction performance. PMID:26492059

Identifying Aboriginal-specific AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 cutoff scores for at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent drinkers using measures of agreement with the 10-item Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) is a 10-item alcohol screener that has been recommended for use in Aboriginal primary health care settings. The time it takes respondents to complete AUDIT, however, has proven to be a barrier to its routine delivery. Two shorter versions, AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3, have been used as screening instruments in primary health care. This paper aims to identify the AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 cutoff scores that most closely identify individuals classified as being at-risk drinkers, high-risk drinkers, or likely alcohol dependent by the 10-item AUDIT. Methods Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted from June 2009 to May 2010 and from July 2010 to June 2011. Aboriginal Australian participants (N = 156) were recruited through an Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Service, and a community-based drug and alcohol treatment agency in rural New South Wales (NSW), and through community-based Aboriginal groups in Sydney NSW. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of each score on the AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 were calculated, relative to cutoff scores on the 10-item AUDIT for at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent drinkers. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to measure the detection characteristics of AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 for the three categories of risk. Results The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were high for drinkers classified as being at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent. Conclusions Recommended cutoff scores for Aboriginal Australians are as follows: at-risk drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 5, AUDIT-3 ≥ 1; high-risk drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 6, AUDIT-3 ≥ 2; and likely dependent drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 9, AUDIT-3 ≥ 3. Adequate sensitivity and specificity were achieved for recommended cutoff scores. AUROC curves were above 0.90. PMID:25179547

Analysis of Observational Studies in the Presence of Treatment Selection Bias: Effects of Invasive Cardiac Management on AMI Survival Using Propensity Score and Instrumental Variable Methods

PubMed Central

Stukel, Thérèse A.; Fisher, Elliott S; Wennberg, David E.; Alter, David A.; Gottlieb, Daniel J.; Vermeulen, Marian J.

2007-01-01

Context Comparisons of outcomes between patients treated and untreated in observational studies may be biased due to differences in patient prognosis between groups, often because of unobserved treatment selection biases. Objective To compare 4 analytic methods for removing the effects of selection bias in observational studies: multivariable model risk adjustment, propensity score risk adjustment, propensity-based matching, and instrumental variable analysis. Design, Setting, and Patients A national cohort of 122 124 patients who were elderly (aged 65–84 years), receiving Medicare, and hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in 1994–1995, and who were eligible for cardiac catheterization. Baseline chart reviews were taken from the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project and linked to Medicare health administrative data to provide a rich set of prognostic variables. Patients were followed up for 7 years through December 31, 2001, to assess the association between long-term survival and cardiac catheterization within 30 days of hospital admission. Main Outcome Measure Risk-adjusted relative mortality rate using each of the analytic methods. Results Patients who received cardiac catheterization (n=73 238) were younger and had lower AMI severity than those who did not. After adjustment for prognostic factors by using standard statistical risk-adjustment methods, cardiac catheterization was associated with a 50% relative decrease in mortality (for multivariable model risk adjustment: adjusted relative risk [RR], 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50–0.52; for propensity score risk adjustment: adjusted RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.53–0.55; and for propensity-based matching: adjusted RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.52–0.56). Using regional catheterization rate as an instrument, instrumental variable analysis showed a 16% relative decrease in mortality (adjusted RR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79–0.90). The survival benefits of routine invasive care from randomized clinical trials are between 8% and 21 %. Conclusions Estimates of the observational association of cardiac catheterization with long-term AMI mortality are highly sensitive to analytic method. All standard risk-adjustment methods have the same limitations regarding removal of unmeasured treatment selection biases. Compared with standard modeling, instrumental variable analysis may produce less biased estimates of treatment effects, but is more suited to answering policy questions than specific clinical questions. PMID:17227979

Predicting Institutional Aggression in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities Using the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pouls, Claudia; Jeandarme, Inge

2018-01-01

Background: One of the most extensively tested risk assessment instruments in offenders with an intellectual disability (OIDs) is the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG). The purpose of this prospective study was to test the ability of this instrument to predict institutional aggression in OIDs. Method: VRAG scores were collected for 52 OIDs, and…

Low Bone Mineral Density Risk Factors and Testing Patterns in Institutionalized Adults with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hess, Mailee; Campagna, Elizabeth J.; Jensen, Kristin M.

2018-01-01

Background: Adults with intellectual or developmental disability (ID/DD) have multiple risks for low bone mineral density (BMD) without formal guidelines to guide testing. We sought to identify risk factors and patterns of BMD testing among institutionalized adults with ID/DD. Methods: We evaluated risk factors for low BMD (Z-/T-score < -1) and…

Assessment of Environmental Attitudes and Risk Perceptions among University Students in Mersin, Turkey

PubMed Central

Ögenler, Oya; Kurt, Ahmet Öner; Koçaş, Fazıl; Şaşmaz, Tayyar

2017-01-01

Background Environmental destruction is one of the most important problems in this century. Objective The aim of the study was to determine the environmental attitudes and perceived risks associated with environmental factors of the students. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted in 7 faculties of Mersin University. The research data were collected using a questionnaire. The questionnaire included sociodemographic characteristics, the “Environmental Attitudes Scale,” and the “Environmental Risk Perception Scale.” 774 students who filled out questionnaires were evaluated. Results The sample included 55.8% females. Environmental Attitudes Scale mean scores of students were identified as 81.1 ± 11.3. The highest perceived risk was release of radioactive materials associated with nuclear power generation. The environmental attitudes and risk perception scores were higher in Health Sciences than in the other faculties. Females were more positive towards the environment and had higher risk perceptions than the men. There is a negative correlation between age and resource depletion risk and global environmental risk score. Conclusion Students had a positive attitude to the environment and had moderate-level risk perception about the environment. Environmental awareness of students, especially those studying in the Social Sciences, should be increased. The environmental education curriculum should be revised throughout all the courses. PMID:28912823

Comparison of the Framingham Risk Score, UKPDS Risk Engine, and SCORE for Predicting Carotid Atherosclerosis and Peripheral Arterial Disease in Korean Type 2 Diabetic Patients.

PubMed

Ahn, Hye-Ran; Shin, Min-Ho; Yun, Woo-Jun; Kim, Hye-Yeon; Lee, Young-Hoon; Kweon, Sun-Seog; Rhee, Jung-Ae; Choi, Jin-Su; Choi, Seong-Woo

2011-03-01

To compare the predictability of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) for carotid atherosclerosis and peripheral arterial disease in Korean type 2 diabetic patients. Among 1,275 registered type 2 diabetes patients in the health center, 621 subjects with type 2 diabetes participated in the study. Well-trained examiners measured the carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), carotid plaque, and ankle brachial index (ABI). The subject's 10-year risk of coronary heart disease was calculated according to the FRS, UKPDS, and SCORE risk scores. These three risk scores were compared to the areas under the curve (AUC). The odds ratios (ORs) of all risk scores increased as the quartiles increased for plaque, IMT, and ABI. For plaque and IMT, the UKPDS risk score provided the highest OR (95% confidence interval) at 3.82 (2.36, 6.17) and at 6.21 (3.37, 11.45). For ABI, the SCORE risk estimation provided the highest OR at 7.41 (3.20, 17.18). However, no significant difference was detected for plaque, IMT, or ABI (P = 0.839, 0.313, and 0.113, respectively) when the AUCs of the three risk scores were compared. When we graphed the Kernel density distribution of these three risk scores, UKPDS had a higher distribution than FRS and SCORE. No significant difference was observed when comparing the predictability of the FRS, UKPDS risk engine, and SCORE risk estimation for carotid atherosclerosis and peripheral arterial disease in Korean type 2 diabetic patients.

The preferred magnetic resonance imaging planes in quantifying visceral adipose tissue and evaluating cardiovascular risk.

PubMed

Liu, K H; Chan, Y L; Chan, J C N; Chan, W B; Kong, M O; Poon, M Y

2005-09-01

Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is a well-accepted non-invasive method in the quantification of visceral adipose tissue. However, a standard method of measurement has not yet been universally agreed. The objectives of the present study were 2-fold, firstly, to identify the imaging plane in the Chinese population which gives the best correlation with total visceral adipose tissue volume and cardiovascular risk factors; and secondly to compare the correlations between single-slice and multiple-slice approach with cardiovascular risk factors. Thirty-seven Chinese subjects with no known medical history underwent MRI examination for quantifying total visceral adipose tissue volume. The visceral adipose tissue area at five axial imaging levels within abdomen and pelvis were determined. All subjects had blood pressure measured and fasting blood taken for analysis of cardiovascular risk factors. Framingham risk score for each subject was calculated. The imaging plane at the level of 'lower costal margin' (LCM) in both men and women had the highest correlation with total visceral adipose tissue volume (r = 0.97 and 0.99 respectively). The visceral adipose tissue area at specific imaging levels showed higher correlations with various cardiovascular risk factors and Framingham risk score than total visceral adipose tissue volume. The visceral adipose tissue area at 'umbilicus' (UMB) level in men (r = 0.88) and LCM level in women (r = 0.70) showed the best correlation with Framingham risk score. The imaging plane at the level of LCM is preferred for reflecting total visceral adipose tissue volume in Chinese subjects. For investigating the association of cardiovascular risk with visceral adipose tissue in MRI-obesity research, the single-slice approach is superior to the multiple-slice approach, with the level of UMB in men and LCM in women as the preferred imaging planes.

The cardiovascular robustness hypothesis: Unmasking young adults' hidden risk for premature cardiovascular death.

PubMed

Kraushaar, Lutz E; Dressel, Alexander

2018-03-01

An undetected high risk for premature death of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among individuals with low-to-moderate risk factor levels is an acknowledged obstacle to CVD prevention. In this paper, we present the hypothesis that the vasculature's robustness against risk factor load will complement conventional risk factor models as a novel stratifier of risk. Figuratively speaking, mortality risk prediction without robustness scoring is akin to predicting the breaking risk of a lake's ice sheet considering load only while disregarding the sheet's bearing strength. Taking the cue from systems biology, which defines robustness as the ability to maintain function against internal and external challenges, we develop a robustness score from the physical parameters that comprehensively quantitate cardiovascular function. We derive the functional parameters using a recently introduced novel system, VascAssist 2 (iSYMED GmbH, Butzbach, Germany). VascAssist 2 (VA) applies the electronic-hydraulic analogy to a digital model of the arterial tree, replicating non-invasively acquired pule pressure waves by modulating the electronic equivalents of the physical parameters that describe in vivo arterial hemodynamics. As the latter is also subject to aging-associated degeneration which (a) progresses at inter-individually different rates, and which (b) affects the biomarker-mortality association, we express the robustness score as a correction factor to calendar age (CA), the dominant risk factor in all CVD risk factor models. We then propose a method for the validation of the score against known time-to-event data in reference populations. Our conceptualization of robustness implies that risk factor-challenged individuals with low robustness scores will face preferential elimination from the population resulting in a significant robustness-CA correlation in this strata absent in the unchallenged stratum. Hence, we also present an outline of a cross-sectional study design suitable to test this hypothesis. We finally discuss the objections that may validly be raised against our robustness hypothesis, and how available evidence encourages us to refute these objections. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coronary artery disease risk assessment from unstructured electronic health records using text mining.

PubMed

Jonnagaddala, Jitendra; Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Ray, Pradeep; Kumar, Manish; Chang, Nai-Wen; Dai, Hong-Jie

2015-12-01

Coronary artery disease (CAD) often leads to myocardial infarction, which may be fatal. Risk factors can be used to predict CAD, which may subsequently lead to prevention or early intervention. Patient data such as co-morbidities, medication history, social history and family history are required to determine the risk factors for a disease. However, risk factor data are usually embedded in unstructured clinical narratives if the data is not collected specifically for risk assessment purposes. Clinical text mining can be used to extract data related to risk factors from unstructured clinical notes. This study presents methods to extract Framingham risk factors from unstructured electronic health records using clinical text mining and to calculate 10-year coronary artery disease risk scores in a cohort of diabetic patients. We developed a rule-based system to extract risk factors: age, gender, total cholesterol, HDL-C, blood pressure, diabetes history and smoking history. The results showed that the output from the text mining system was reliable, but there was a significant amount of missing data to calculate the Framingham risk score. A systematic approach for understanding missing data was followed by implementation of imputation strategies. An analysis of the 10-year Framingham risk scores for coronary artery disease in this cohort has shown that the majority of the diabetic patients are at moderate risk of CAD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association of Changes in Diet Quality with Total and Cause-Specific Mortality

PubMed Central

Sotos-Prieto, Mercedes; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N.; Mattei, Josiemer; Fung, Teresa T.; Li, Yanping; Pan, An; Willett, Walter C.; Rimm, Eric B.; Hu, Frank B.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Few studies have evaluated the relationship between changes in diet quality over time and the risk of death. METHODS We used Cox proportional-hazards models to calculate adjusted hazard ratios for total and cause-specific mortality among 47,994 women in the Nurses’ Health Study and 25,745 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study from 1998 through 2010. Changes in diet quality over the preceding 12 years (1986–1998) were assessed with the use of the Alternate Healthy Eating Index–2010 score, the Alternate Mediterranean Diet score, and the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet score. RESULTS The pooled hazard ratios for all-cause mortality among participants who had the greatest improvement in diet quality (13 to 33% improvement), as compared with those who had a relatively stable diet quality (0 to 3% improvement), in the 12-year period were the following: 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85 to 0.97) according to changes in the Alternate Healthy Eating Index score, 0.84 (95 CI%, 0.78 to 0.91) according to changes in the Alternate Mediterranean Diet score, and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.84 to 0.95) according to changes in the DASH score. A 20-percentile increase in diet scores (indicating an improved quality of diet) was significantly associated with a reduction in total mortality of 8 to 17% with the use of the three diet indexes and a 7 to 15% reduction in the risk of death from cardiovascular disease with the use of the Alternate Healthy Eating Index and Alternate Mediterranean Diet. Among participants who maintained a high-quality diet over a 12-year period, the risk of death from any cause was significantly lower — by 14% (95% CI, 8 to 19) when assessed with the Alternate Healthy Eating Index score, 11% (95% CI, 5 to 18) when assessed with the Alternate Mediterranean Diet score, and 9% (95% CI, 2 to 15) when assessed with the DASH score — than the risk among participants with consistently low diet scores over time. CONCLUSIONS Improved diet quality over 12 years was consistently associated with a decreased risk of death. PMID:28700845

Association of timing of menarche with depressive symptoms and depression in adolescence: Mendelian randomisation study

PubMed Central

Sequeira, Maija-Eliina; Lewis, Sarah J.; Bonilla, Carolina; Smith, George Davey; Joinson, Carol

2017-01-01

Background Observational studies report associations between early menarche and higher levels of depressive symptoms and depression. However, no studies have investigated whether this association is causal. Aims To determine whether earlier menarche is a causal risk factor for depressive symptoms and depression in adolescence. Method The associations between a genetic score for age at menarche and depressive symptoms at 14, 17 and 19 years, and depression at 18 years, were examined using Mendelian randomisation analysis techniques. Results Using a genetic risk score to indicate earlier timing of menarche, we found that early menarche is associated with higher levels of depressive symptoms at 14 years (odds ratio per risk allele 1.02, 95% CI 1.005–1.04, n = 2404). We did not find an association between the early menarche risk score and depressive symptoms or depression after age 14. Conclusions Our results provide evidence for a causal effect of age at menarche on depressive symptoms at age 14. PMID:27491534

The Relationship Between Functional Movement, Balance Deficits, and Previous Injury History in Deploying Marine Warfighters.

PubMed

de la Motte, Sarah J; Lisman, Peter; Sabatino, Marc; Beutler, Anthony I; OʼConnor, Francis G; Deuster, Patricia A

2016-06-01

Screening for primary musculoskeletal injury (MSK-I) is costly and time-consuming. Both the Functional Movement Screen (FMS) and the Y-Balance Test (YBT) have been shown to predict future MSK-I. With a goal of optimizing the efficiency of primary MSK-I screening, we studied associations between performance on the FMS and YBT and whether history of MSK-I influenced FMS and YBT scores. In total, 365 deploying Marines performed the FMS and YBT as prescribed. Composite and individual scores were each categorized as high risk or low risk using published injury thresholds: High-risk FMS included composite scores ≤14 and right-to-left (R/L) asymmetry for Shoulder Mobility, In-Line Lunge, Straight Leg Raise, Hurdle Step, or Rotary Stability. High-risk YBT consisted of anterior, posteromedial, and/or posterolateral R/L differences >4 cm and/or composite differences ≥12 cm. Pearson's χ tests evaluated associations between: (a) all FMS and YBT risk groups and (b) previous MSK-I and all FMS and YBT risk groups. Marines with high-risk FMS were twice as likely to have high-risk YBT posteromedial scores (χ = 10.2, p = 0.001; odds ratio [OR] = 2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.3-3.2). History of any MSK-I was not associated with high-risk FMS or high-risk YBT. However, previous lower extremity MSK-I was associated with In-Line Lunge asymmetries (χ = 9.8, p = 0.002, OR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.3-3.6). Overall, we found limited overlap in FMS and YBT risk. Because both methods seem to assess different risk factors for injury, we recommend FMS and YBT continue to be used together in combination with a thorough injury history until their predictive capacities are further established.

Cardiovascular risk scores for coronary atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Yalcin, Murat; Kardesoglu, Ejder; Aparci, Mustafa; Isilak, Zafer; Uz, Omer; Yiginer, Omer; Ozmen, Namik; Cingozbay, Bekir Yilmaz; Uzun, Mehmet; Cebeci, Bekir Sitki

2012-10-01

The objective of this study was to compare frequently used cardiovascular risk scores in predicting the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 3-vessel disease. In 350 consecutive patients (218 men and 132 women) who underwent coronary angiography, the cardiovascular risk level was determined using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), the Modified Framingham Risk Score (MFRS), the Prospective Cardiovascular Münster (PROCAM) score, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic curves showed that FRS had more predictive value than the other scores for CAD (area under curve, 0.76, P < or = 0.001), but all scores had good specificity and positive predictive value. For 3-vessel disease, the FRS had better predictive value than the other scores (area under curve, 0.74, P < or = 0.001), but all scores had good specificity and negative predictive value. The risk scores (FRS, MFRS, PROCAM, and SCORE) may predict the presence and severity of coronary atherosclerosis.The FRS had better predictive value than the other scores.

Metabolic syndrome predicts vascular changes in whole body magnetic resonance imaging in patients with long standing diabetes mellitus

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Although diabetic patients have an increased rate of cardio-vascular events, there is considerable heterogeneity with respect to cardiovascular risk, requiring new approaches to individual cardiovascular risk factor assessment. In this study we used whole body-MR-angiography (WB-MRA) to assess the degree of atherosclerosis in patients with long-standing diabetes and to determine the association between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and atherosclerotic burden. Methods Long standing (≥10 years) type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients (n = 59; 31 males; 63.3 ± 1.7 years) were examined by WB-MRA. Based on the findings in each vessel, we developed an overall score representing the patient's vascular atherosclerotic burden (MRI-score). The score's association with components of the MetS was assessed. Results The median MRI-score was 1.18 [range: 1.00-2.41] and MetS was present in 58% of the cohort (type 2 diabetics: 73%; type 1 diabetics: 26%). Age (p = 0.0002), HDL-cholesterol (p = 0.016), hypertension (p = 0.0008), nephropathy (p = 0.0093), CHD (p = 0.001) and MetS (p = 0.0011) were significantly associated with the score. Adjusted for age and sex, the score was significantly (p = 0.02) higher in diabetics with MetS (1.450 [1.328-1.572]) compared to those without MetS (1.108 [0.966-1.50]). The number of MetS components was associated with a linear increase in the MRI-score (increase in score: 0.09/MetS component; r2 = 0.24, p = 0.038). Finally, using an established risk algorithm, we found a significant association between MRI-score and 10-year risk for CHD, fatal CHD and stroke. Conclusion In this high-risk diabetic population, WB-MRA revealed large heterogeneity in the degree of systemic atherosclerosis. Presence and number of traits of the MetS are associated with the extent of atherosclerotic burden. These results support the perspective that diabetic patients are a heterogeneous population with increased but varying prevalence of atherosclerosis and risk. PMID:20804545

Calculating the risk of a pancreatic fistula after a pancreaticoduodenectomy: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Vallance, Abigail E; Young, Alastair L; Macutkiewicz, Christian; Roberts, Keith J; Smith, Andrew M

2015-01-01

Background A post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality after a pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). This systematic review aimed to identify all scoring systems to predict POPF after a PD, consider their clinical applicability and assess the study quality. Method An electronic search was performed of Medline (1946–2014) and EMBASE (1996–2014) databases. Results were screened according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, and quality assessed according to the QUIPS (quality in prognostic studies) tool. Results Six eligible scoring systems were identified. Five studies used the International Study Group on Pancreatic Fistula (ISGPF) definition. The proposed scores feature between two and five variables and of the 16 total variables, the majority (12) featured in only one score. Three scores could be fully completed pre-operatively whereas 1 score included intra-operative and two studies post-operative variables. Four scores were internally validated and of these, two scores have been subject to subsequent multicentre review. The median QUIPS score was 38 out of 50 (range 16–50). Conclusion These scores show potential in calculating the individualized patient risk of POPF. There is, however, much variation in current scoring systems and further validation in large multicentre cohorts is now needed. PMID:26456948

Combination of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, early lactate area, and N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide levels as a predictor of mortality in geriatric patients with septic shock.

PubMed

Wang, Hao; Li, Zhong; Yin, Mei; Chen, Xiao-Mei; Ding, Shi-Fang; Li, Chen; Zhai, Qian; Li, Yuan; Liu, Han; Wu, Da-Wei

2015-04-01

Given the high mortality rates in elderly patients with septic shock, the early recognition of patients at greatest risk of death is crucial for the implementation of early intervention strategies. Serum lactate and N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels are often elevated in elderly patients with septic shock and are therefore important biomarkers of metabolic and cardiac dysfunction. We hypothesized that a risk stratification system that incorporates the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score and lactate and NT-proBNP biomarkers would better predict mortality in geriatric patients with septic shock than the APACHE II score alone. A single-center prospective study was conducted from January 2012 to December 2013 in a 30-bed intensive care unit of a triservice hospital. The lactate area score was defined as the sum of the area under the curve of serial lactate levels measured during the 24 hours following admission divided by 24. The NT-proBNP score was assigned based on NT-proBNP levels measured at admission. The combined score was calculated by adding the lactate area and NT-proBNP scores to the APACHE II score. Multivariate logistic regression analyses and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate which variables and scoring systems served as the best predictors of mortality in elderly septic patients. A total of 115 patients with septic shock were included in the study. The overall 28-day mortality rate was 67.0%. When compared to survivors, nonsurvivors had significantly higher lactate area scores, NT-proBNP scores, APACHE II scores, and combined scores. In the multivariate regression model, the combined score, lactate area score, and mechanical ventilation were independent risk factors associated with death. Receiver operating characteristic curves indicated that the combined score had significantly greater predictive power when compared to the APACHE II score or the NT-proBNP score (P < .05). A combined score that incorporates the APACHE II score with early lactate area and NT-proBNP levels is a useful method for risk stratification in geriatric patients with septic shock. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of a systematic risk analysis method (FMECA) to improve quality in a clinical laboratory procedure.

PubMed

Serafini, A; Troiano, G; Franceschini, E; Calzoni, P; Nante, N; Scapellato, C

2016-01-01

Risk management is a set of actions to recognize or identify risks, errors and their consequences and to take the steps to counter it. The aim of our study was to apply FMECA (Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis) to the Activated Protein C resistance (APCR) test in order to detect and avoid mistakes in this process. We created a team and the process was divided in phases and sub phases. For each phase we calculated the probability of occurrence (O) of an error, the detectability score (D) and the severity (S). The product of these three indexes yields the RPN (Risk Priority Number). Phases with a higher RPN need corrective actions with a higher priority. The calculation of RPN showed that more than 20 activities have a score higher than 150 and need important preventive actions; 8 have a score between 100 and 150. Only 23 actions obtained an acceptable score lower than 100. This was one of the first experience of application of FMECA analysis to a laboratory process, and the first one which applies this technique to the identification of the factor V Leiden, and our results confirm that FMECA could be a simple, powerful and useful tool in risk management and helps to identify quickly the criticality in a laboratory process.

Failure mode and effects analysis drastically reduced potential risks in clinical trial conduct

PubMed Central

Baik, Jungmi; Kim, Hyunjung; Kim, Rachel

2017-01-01

Background Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a risk management tool to proactively identify and assess the causes and effects of potential failures in a system, thereby preventing them from happening. The objective of this study was to evaluate effectiveness of FMEA applied to an academic clinical trial center in a tertiary care setting. Methods A multidisciplinary FMEA focus group at the Seoul National University Hospital Clinical Trials Center selected 6 core clinical trial processes, for which potential failure modes were identified and their risk priority number (RPN) was assessed. Remedial action plans for high-risk failure modes (RPN >160) were devised and a follow-up RPN scoring was conducted a year later. Results A total of 114 failure modes were identified with an RPN score ranging 3–378, which was mainly driven by the severity score. Fourteen failure modes were of high risk, 11 of which were addressed by remedial actions. Rescoring showed a dramatic improvement attributed to reduction in the occurrence and detection scores by >3 and >2 points, respectively. Conclusions FMEA is a powerful tool to improve quality in clinical trials. The Seoul National University Hospital Clinical Trials Center is expanding its FMEA capability to other core clinical trial processes. PMID:29089745

Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

PubMed

Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

2018-01-22

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

Screening for increased cardiometabolic risk in primary care: a systematic review

PubMed Central

den Engelsen, Corine; Koekkoek, Paula S; Godefrooij, Merijn B; Spigt, Mark G; Rutten, Guy E

2014-01-01

Background Many programmes to detect and prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been performed, but the optimal strategy is not yet clear. Aim To present a systematic review of cardiometabolic screening programmes performed among apparently healthy people (not yet known to have CVD, diabetes, or cardiometabolic risk factors) and mixed populations (apparently healthy people and people diagnosed with risk factor or disease) to define the optimal screening strategy. Design and setting Systematic review of studies performed in primary care in Western countries. Method MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL databases were searched for studies screening for increased cardiometabolic risk. Exclusion criteria were studies designed to assess prevalence of risk factors without follow-up or treatment; without involving a GP; when fewer than two risk factors were considered as the primary outcome; and studies constrained to ethnic minorities. Results The search strategy yielded 11 445 hits; 26 met the inclusion criteria. Five studies (1995–2012) were conducted in apparently healthy populations: three used a stepwise method. Response rates varied from 24% to 79%. Twenty-one studies (1967–2012) were performed in mixed populations; one used a stepwise method. Response rates varied from 50% to 75%. Prevalence rates could not be compared because of heterogeneity of used thresholds and eligible populations. Observed time trends were a shift from mixed to apparently healthy populations, increasing use of risk scores, and increasing use of stepwise screening methods. Conclusion The optimal screening strategy in primary care is likely stepwise, in apparently healthy people, with the use of risk scores. Increasing public awareness and actively involving GPs might facilitate screening efficiency and uptake. PMID:25267047

Single Motherhood, Alcohol Dependence, and Smoking During Pregnancy: A Propensity Score Analysis.

PubMed

Waldron, Mary; Bucholz, Kathleen K; Lian, Min; Lessov-Schlaggar, Christina N; Miller, Ruth Huang; Lynskey, Michael T; Knopik, Valerie S; Madden, Pamela A F; Heath, Andrew C

2017-09-01

Few studies linking single motherhood and maternal smoking during pregnancy consider correlated risk from problem substance use beyond history of smoking and concurrent use of alcohol. In the present study, we used propensity score methods to examine whether the risk of smoking during pregnancy associated with single motherhood is the result of potential confounders, including alcohol dependence. Data were drawn from mothers participating in a birth cohort study of their female like-sex twin offspring (n = 257 African ancestry; n = 1,711 European or other ancestry). We conducted standard logistic regression models predicting smoking during pregnancy from single motherhood at twins' birth, followed by propensity score analyses comparing single-mother and two-parent families stratified by predicted probability of single motherhood. In standard models, single motherhood predicted increased risk of smoking during pregnancy in European ancestry but not African ancestry families. In propensity score analyses, rates of smoking during pregnancy were elevated in single-mother relative to two-parent European ancestry families across much of the spectrum a priori risk of single motherhood. Among African ancestry families, within-strata comparisons of smoking during pregnancy by single-mother status were nonsignificant. These findings highlight single motherhood as a unique risk factor for smoking during pregnancy in European ancestry mothers, over and above alcohol dependence. Additional research is needed to identify risks, beyond single motherhood, associated with smoking during pregnancy in African ancestry mothers.

Comparison of 3 Symptom Classification Methods to Standardize the History Component of the HEART Score.

PubMed

Marchick, Michael R; Setteducato, Michael L; Revenis, Jesse J; Robinson, Matthew A; Weeks, Emily C; Payton, Thomas F; Winchester, David E; Allen, Brandon R

2017-09-01

The History, Electrocardiography, Age, Risk factors, Troponin (HEART) score enables rapid risk stratification of emergency department patients presenting with chest pain. However, the subjectivity in scoring introduced by the history component has been criticized by some clinicians. We examined the association of 3 objective scoring models with the results of noninvasive cardiac testing. Medical records for all patients evaluated in the chest pain center of an academic medical center during a 1-year period were reviewed retrospectively. Each patient's history component score was calculated using 3 models developed by the authors. Differences in the distribution of HEART scores for each model, as well as their degree of agreement with one another, as well as the results of cardiac testing were analyzed. Seven hundred forty nine patients were studied, 58 of which had an abnormal stress test or computed tomography coronary angiography. The mean HEART scores for models 1, 2, and 3 were 2.97 (SD 1.17), 2.57 (SD 1.25), and 3.30 (SD 1.35), respectively, and were significantly different (P < 0.001). However, for each model, the likelihood of an abnormal cardiovascular test did not correlate with higher scores on the symptom component of the HEART score (P = 0.09, 0.41, and 0.86, respectively). While the objective scoring models produced different distributions of HEART scores, no model performed well with regards to identifying patients with abnormal advanced cardiac studies in this relatively low-risk cohort. Further studies in a broader cohort of patients, as well as comparison with the performance of subjective history scoring, is warranted before adoption of any of these objective models.

Assessment of coronary artery calcium by chest CT compared with EKG-gated cardiac CT in the multicenter AIDS cohort study

PubMed Central

Chandra, Divay; Gupta, Aman; Leader, Joseph K.; Fitzpatrick, Meghan; Kingsley, Lawrence A.; Kleerup, Eric; Haberlen, Sabina A.; Budoff, Matthew J.; Witt, Mallory; Post, Wendy S.; Sciurba, Frank C.; Morris, Alison

2017-01-01

Rationale Individuals with HIV are at increased risk for coronary artery disease (CAD). Early detection of subclinical CAD by assessment of coronary artery calcium (CAC) may help risk stratify and prevent CAD events in these individuals. However, the current standard to quantify CAC i.e. Agatston scoring requires EKG-gated cardiac CT imaging. Objective To determine if the assessment of CAC using non-EKG-gated chest CT and the Weston scoring system is a useful surrogate for Agatston scores in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals. Methods and measurements CAC was assessed by both the Weston and Agatston score in 108 men enrolled in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. Results Participants were 55.2 (IQR 50.4; 59.9) years old and 62 (57.4%) were seropositive for HIV. Inter-observer agreement (rs = 0.94, κ = 90.0%, p<0.001, n = 21) and intra-observer agreement (rs = 0.95, κ = 95.2%, p<0.001, n = 97) for category of Weston score were excellent. Weston scores were associated with similar CAD risk factors as Agatston scores (age, race, HDL cholesterol level, all p<0.05) in our cohort. There was excellent correlation (rs = 0.92, p<0.001) and agreement (κw = 0.77, p<0.001) between Weston and Agatston scores. Conclusions This study is the first to examine calcium scoring using chest CT in HIV-infected individuals and to independently validate the Weston score as a surrogate for the Agatston score. In clinical or research settings where EKG-gated cardiac CT is not feasible for the assessment of coronary calcium, Weston scoring by using chest CT should be considered. PMID:28453572

Adherence to the “Mediterranean Diet” in Spain and Its Relationship with Cardiovascular Risk (DIMERICA Study)

PubMed Central

Abellán Alemán, José; Zafrilla Rentero, María Pilar; Montoro-García, Silvia; Mulero, Juana; Pérez Garrido, Alfonso; Leal, Mariano; Guerrero, Lucía; Ramos, Elena; Ruilope, Luis Miguel

2016-01-01

Background: Nutritional studies focus on traditional cultural models and lifestyles in different countries. The aim of this study was to examine the adherence to the Mediterranean diet, life habits, and risk factors associated with cardiovascular diseases among people living in different geographical regions in Spain. Methods: A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in each region. The sampling scheme consisted of a random three-stage stratified sampling program according to geographic region, age, and gender. A total of 1732 subjects were asked to complete a questionnaire designed to assess their nutrient intake, dietary habits, and exercise. A diet score that assesses the adherence of participants to the Mediterranean diet (range 0–10) was also applied. Results: Southeastern Spain had the lowest score for adherence to the Mediterranean diet because of the low consumption of fish and plant products. A lower adherence score to the Mediterranean diet was strongly associated with the prevalence of hypertension (p = 0.018). Conclusions: A low level of adherence to the Mediterranean diet is accompanied by a high prevalence of hypertension and, therefore, a raised cardiovascular risk in the country. The adherence score could help identify individuals at greater cardiovascular risk. PMID:27801819

Potential Utility of the SYNTAX Score 2 in Patients Undergoing Left Main Angioplasty

PubMed Central

Madeira, Sérgio; Raposo, Luís; Brito, João; Rodrigues, Ricardo; Gonçalves, Pedro; Teles, Rui; Gabriel, Henrique; Machado, Francisco; Almeida, Manuel; Mendes, Miguel

2016-01-01

Background The revascularization strategy of the left main disease is determinant for clinical outcomes. Objective We sought to 1) validate and compare the performance of the SYNTAX Score 1 and 2 for predicting major cardiovascular events at 4 years in patients who underwent unprotected left main angioplasty and 2) evaluate the long-term outcome according to the SYNTAX score 2-recommended revascularization strategy. Methods We retrospectively studied 132 patients from a single-centre registry who underwent unprotected left main angioplasty between March 1999 and December 2010. Discrimination and calibration of both models were assessed by ROC curve analysis, calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results Total event rate was 26.5% at 4 years.The AUC for the SYNTAX Score 1 and SYNTAX Score 2 for percutaneous coronary intervention, was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.49-0.73) and 0.67 (95% CI: 0.57-0.78), respectively. Despite a good overall adjustment for both models, the SYNTAX Score 2 tended to underpredict risk. In the 47 patients (36%) who should have undergone surgery according to the SYNTAX Score 2, event rate was numerically higher (30% vs. 25%; p=0.54), and for those with a higher difference between the two SYNTAX Score 2 scores (Percutaneous coronary intervention vs. Coronary artery by-pass graft risk estimation greater than 5.7%), event rate was almost double (40% vs. 22%; p=0.2). Conclusion The SYNTAX Score 2 may allow a better and individualized risk stratification of patients who need revascularization of an unprotected left main coronary artery. Prospective studies are needed for further validation. PMID:27007223

A scoring system for ascertainment of incident stroke; the Risk Index Score (RISc).

PubMed

Kass-Hout, T A; Moyé, L A; Smith, M A; Morgenstern, L B

2006-01-01

The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a computer-based statistical algorithm that could be translated into a simple scoring system in order to ascertain incident stroke cases using hospital admission medical records data. The Risk Index Score (RISc) algorithm was developed using data collected prospectively by the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi (BASIC) project, 2000. The validity of RISc was evaluated by estimating the concordance of scoring system stroke ascertainment to stroke ascertainment by physician and/or abstractor review of hospital admission records. RISc was developed on 1718 randomly selected patients (training set) and then statistically validated on an independent sample of 858 patients (validation set). A multivariable logistic model was used to develop RISc and subsequently evaluated by goodness-of-fit and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. The higher the value of RISc, the higher the patient's risk of potential stroke. The study showed RISc was well calibrated and discriminated those who had potential stroke from those that did not on initial screening. In this study we developed and validated a rapid, easy, efficient, and accurate method to ascertain incident stroke cases from routine hospital admission records for epidemiologic investigations. Validation of this scoring system was achieved statistically; however, clinical validation in a community hospital setting is warranted.

Assessment of non‐vertebral fracture risk in postmenopausal women

PubMed Central

Roux, Christian; Briot, Karine; Horlait, Stéphane; Varbanov, Alex; Watts, Nelson B; Boonen, Steven

2007-01-01

Background Non‐vertebral (NV) fractures are responsible for a great amount of morbidity, mortality and cost attributable to osteoporosis. Objectives To identify risk factors for NV fractures in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, and to design an assessment tool for prediction of these fractures. Methods 2546 postmenopausal women with osteoporosis included in the placebo groups of three risedronate controlled trials were included (mean age 72 years, mean femoral T‐score −2.5; 60% and 53% of patients with prevalent vertebral and NV fractures, respectively). Over 3 years, 222 NV fractures were observed. Baseline data on 14 risk factors were included in a logistic regression analysis. Results 6 risk factors were associated with NV fracture risk: prevalent NV fracture (p = 0.004), number of prevalent vertebral fractures (p<0.001), femoral T‐score (p = 0.031), serum level of 25‐hydroxyvitamin D (p<0.001), age (p = 0.012) and height (p = 0.037). An NV risk index was developed by converting the multivariate logistic equation into an additive score. In the group of women with a score ⩾2.1, the incidence of NV fracture was 13.2% (95% CI 11.1 to 15.3), 1.5 times higher than that of the general population. Conclusions The NV risk index is a convenient tool for selection of patients with osteoporosis with a high risk for NV fractures, and may help to choose from available treatments those with a proven efficacy for reduction of NV fracture risk. PMID:17314119

Value of EZSCAN parameters for diabetes screening in Chinese.

PubMed

Lin, Yanhui; Chen, Zhiheng; Guo, Xu; Deng, Yulin

2017-05-23

To study the parameters of EZSCAN as a screening tool for diabetes in Chinese. A total of 6,270 subjects participated in the study. All subjects underwent tests of EZSCAN, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), oral glucose tolerance test and HbA 1c . 1. All subjects were divided into 4 groups: the normal group, sugar metabolic abnormalities as low-risk group, middle-risk group and high-risk group. The difference of diabetes incidence among the 4 groups was statistically significant. With the increase of EZSCAN score, the prevalence of diabetes increased significantly. But there is no statistically difference between the low-risk group and the middle-risk group. 2. After adjustment for other variables, there is significantly positive relationship among EZSCAN risk score and the risk of diabetes. Meanwhile there is no statistically difference between the low-risk group and the middle-risk group. 3. The cut-off point of EZSCAN for diabetes was 44.5% with the sensitivity was 73.2% which was higher than of FPG and HbA 1c . As EZSCAN-diabetes risk score increases, the risk of diabetes increases. EZSCAN can be used as a tool for screening for diabetes. At the best screening diabetes cut-off point value 44.5%, the sensitivity is higher than traditional method of FPG and HbA 1c . Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Risk and Protective Factors for Suicidality at 6-Month Follow-up in Adolescent Inpatients Who Attempted Suicide: An Exploratory Model

PubMed Central

Consoli, Angèle; Cohen, David; Bodeau, Nicolas; Guilé, Jean-Marc; Mirkovic, Bojan; Knafo, Alexandra; Mahé, Vincent; Laurent, Claudine; Renaud, Johanne; Labelle, Réal; Breton, Jean-Jacques; Gérardin, Priscille

2015-01-01

Objective: To assess risk and protective factors for suicidality at 6-month follow-up in adolescent inpatients after a suicide attempt. Methods: One hundred seven adolescents from 5 inpatient units who had a suicide attempt were seen at 6-month follow-up. Baseline measures included sociodemographics, mood and suicidality, dependence, borderline symptomatology, temperament and character inventory (TCI), reasons for living, spirituality, and coping scores. Results: At 6-month follow-up, 41 (38%) subjects relapsed from suicidal behaviours. Among them, 15 (14%) had repeated a suicide attempt. Higher depression and hopelessness scores, the occurrence of a new suicide attempt, or a new hospitalization belonged to the same factorial dimension (suicidality). Derived from the best-fit structural equation modelling for suicidality as an outcome measure at 6-month follow-up, risk factors among the baseline variables included: major depressive disorder, high depression scores, and high scores for TCI self-transcendence. Only one protective factor emerged: coping–hard work and achievement. Conclusion: In this very high-risk population, some established risk factors (for example, a history of suicide attempts) may not predict suicidality. Our results suggest that adolescents who retain high scores for depression or hopelessness, who remain depressed, or who express a low value for life or an abnormally high connection with the universe are at higher risk for suicidality and should be targeted for more intense intervention. Improving adolescent motivation in school and in work may be protective. Given the sample size, the model should be regarded as exploratory. PMID:25886668

Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.

PubMed

Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D

2015-03-01

Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

Technical feasibility and validation of a coronary artery calcium scoring system using CT coronary angiography images.

PubMed

Pavitt, Christopher W; Harron, Katie; Lindsay, Alistair C; Zielke, Sayeh; Ray, Robin; Gordon, Daniel; Rubens, Michael B; Padley, Simon P; Nicol, Edward D

2016-05-01

We validate a novel CT coronary angiography (CCTA) coronary calcium scoring system. Calcium was quantified on CCTA images using a new patient-specific attenuation threshold: mean + 2SD of intra-coronary contrast density (HU). Using 335 patient data sets a conversion factor (CF) for predicting CACS from CCTA scores (CCTAS) was derived and validated in a separate cohort (n = 168). Bland-Altman analysis and weighted kappa for MESA centiles and Agatston risk groupings were calculated. Multivariable linear regression yielded a CF: CACS = (1.185 × CCTAS) + (0.002 × CCTAS × attenuation threshold). When applied to CCTA data sets there was excellent correlation (r = 0.95; p < 0.0001) and agreement (mean difference -10.4 [95% limits of agreement -258.9 to 238.1]) with traditional calcium scores. Agreement was better for calcium scores below 500; however, MESA percentile agreement was better for high risk patients. Risk stratification was excellent (Agatston groups k = 0.88 and MESA centiles k = 0.91). Eliminating the dedicated CACS scan decreased patient radiation exposure by approximately one-third. CCTA calcium scores can accurately predict CACS using a simple, individualized, semiautomated approach reducing acquisition time and radiation exposure when evaluating patients for CAD. This method is not affected by the ROI location, imaging protocol, or tube voltage strengthening its clinical applicability. • Coronary calcium scores can be reliably determined on contrast-enhanced cardiac CT • This score can accurately risk stratify patients • Elimination of a dedicated calcium scan reduces patient radiation by a third.

Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS): A novel severity score to predict mortality among hospitalized patients with Clostridium difficile infection

PubMed Central

Kassam, Zain; Fabersunne, Camila Cribb; Smith, Mark B.; Alm, Eric J.; Kaplan, Gilaad G.; Nguyen, Geoffrey C.; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N.

2016-01-01

Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is public health threat and associated with significant mortality. However, there is a paucity of objectively derived CDI severity scoring systems to predict mortality. Aims To develop a novel CDI risk score to predict mortality entitled: Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS). Methods We obtained data from the United States 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. All CDI-associated hospitalizations were identified using discharge codes (ICD-9-CM, 008.45). Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to identify independent predictors of mortality. CARDS was calculated by assigning a numeric weight to each parameter based on their odds ratio in the final logistic model. Predictive properties of model discrimination were assessed using the c-statistic and validated in an independent sample using the 2010 NIS database. Results We identified 77,776 hospitalizations, yielding an estimate of 374,747 cases with an associated diagnosis of CDI in the United States, 8% of whom died in the hospital. The 8 severity score predictors were identified on multivariate analysis: age, cardiopulmonary disease, malignancy, diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, acute renal failure, liver disease and ICU admission, with weights ranging from −1 (for diabetes) to 5 (for ICU admission). The overall risk score in the cohort ranged from 0 to 18. Mortality increased significantly as CARDS increased. CDI-associated mortality was 1.2% with a CARDS of 0 compared to 100% with CARDS of 18. The model performed equally well in our validation cohort. Conclusion CARDS is a promising simple severity score to predict mortality among those hospitalized with CDI. PMID:26849527

Validation of the Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation-Specific Comorbidity Index in a retrospective cohort of children and adolescents who received an allogeneic transplantation in Argentina.

PubMed

Figueroa Turienzo, Carlos M; Cernadas, Carolina; Roizen, Mariana; Pizzi, Silvia; Staciuk, Raquel

2016-08-01

Hematopoietic cell transplantationis a therapy with a risk of transplant-related mortality (TRM), which may vary depending on prior comorbidities. The Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation-Specific Comorbidity Index (HCT-CI) is an instrument developed to measure this risk. There are very few reports on its use in pediatrics. The objective of this study was to validate the HCT-CI in a pediatric cohort of allogeneic hematopoietic-cell transplantation recipients in Argentina. Retrospective cohort made up of 140 transplant patients a, Hospital J. P. Garrahan between 2008 and 2012. Medical records were reviewed to identify patient history and course. The HCT-CI was estimated for each patient, who was classified as having a low (score: 0), intermediate (score: 1-2) or high (score: >3) risk. Survival was estimated for each group using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with the log-rank test. For malignancies, relapse was considered an event consistent with TRM. A p value 〈 0.05 was considered significant. The median score in the HCT-CI was 1 (r: 0-6). A score of 0 was observed in 45.7% of patients, 1-2 in 40.7%, and >3 in 13.6%. The most common comorbidities included obesity, infection, pulmonary and liver involvement. TRM was 14.1% among patients with a score of 0; 43.7% with a score of 1-2, and 52.6% with a score >3. Differences were observed among the survival curves of the three groups (p = 0.01). The HCT-CI demonstrated to be an effective tool to predict the risk of TRM in our setting. comorbidity, hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, non-relapse mortality, pediatrics. Sociedad Argentina de Pediatría.

Androgen Deprivation Therapy Use in the Setting of High-dose Radiation Therapy and the Risk of Prostate Cancer–Specific Mortality Stratified by the Extent of Competing Mortality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rose, Brent S., E-mail: brose44@gmail.com; Chen, Ming-Hui; Wu, Jing

Purpose: The addition of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) to radiation therapy (RT) is the standard of care for men with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer (PC). However, whether competing mortality (CM) affects the ability of ADT to improve, survival remains unanswered. Methods and Materials: We calculated a CM risk score using a Fine-Gray semiparametric model that included age and cardiometabolic comorbidities from a cohort of 17,669 men treated with high-dose RT with or without supplemental ADT for nonmetastatic PC. Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis was used to assess whether ADT reduced the risk of PC-specific mortality for menmore » with a low versus a high risk of CM among the 4550 patients within the intermediate- and high-risk cohort after adjustment for established PC prognostic factors, year of treatment, site, and ADT propensity score. Results: After a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 1065 men had died, 89 (8.36%) of PC. Among the men with a low CM score, ADT use was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of PC-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.87, P=.02) but was not for men with high CM (adjusted hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 0.77-2.30, P=.30). Conclusions: Adding ADT to high-dose RT appears to be associated with decreased PC-specific mortality risk in men with a low but not a high CM score. These data should serve to heighten awareness about the importance of considering competing risks when determining whether to add ADT to RT for older men with intermediate- or high-risk PC.« less

Relationship between lower urinary tract symptoms and cardiovascular risk scores including Framingham risk score and ACC/AHA risk score.

PubMed

Lee, Bora; Lee, Sang Wook; Kang, Hye Rim; Kim, Dae In; Sun, Hwa Yeon; Kim, Jae Heon

2018-01-01

This study attempted to investigate the association between lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) and CVD risk scores and to overcome the limitations of previous relevant studies. A total of 2994 ostensibly healthy males, who participated in a voluntary health check in a health promotion center from January 2010 to December 2014, were reviewed. CVD risk scores were calculated using Framingham risk score and American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) score. Correlation and multivariate logistic regression analysis to predict the CVD risk severity were performed. Correlation between total IPSS with CVD risk scores demonstrated significant positive associations, which showed higher correlation with ACC/AHA score than the Framingham score (r = 0.18 vs 0.09, respectively). For ACC/AHA score, the partial correlation after adjustment of body mass index (BMI) showed significant positive correlations between all LUTS parameters and PSA. For the Framingham score, all variables, except IPSS Q2 and IPSS Q6, showed significant positive correlations. After adjustment of BMI, prostate volume and PSA, only the severe LUTS group showed significant relationship with intermediate-high CVD risk severity, as compared with normal LUTS group (OR = 2.97, 95%CI (1.35-6.99)). Using two validated CVD risk calculators, we observed that LUTS is closely associated with future CVD risk. To predict the intermediate-high CVD risk severity, severe LUTS was a sentinel sign, the presence of which warrants the importance of an earlier screening for CVD. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A simple validated method for predicting the risk of hospitalization for worsening of heart failure in ambulatory patients: the Redin-SCORE.

PubMed

Álvarez-García, Jesús; Ferrero-Gregori, Andreu; Puig, Teresa; Vázquez, Rafael; Delgado, Juan; Pascual-Figal, Domingo; Alonso-Pulpón, Luis; González-Juanatey, José R; Rivera, Miguel; Worner, Fernando; Bardají, Alfredo; Cinca, Juan

2015-08-01

Prevention of hospital readmissions is one of the main objectives in the management of patients with heart failure (HF). Most of the models predicting readmissions are based on data extracted from hospitalized patients rather than from outpatients. Our objective was to develop a validated score predicting 1-month and 1-year risk of readmission for worsening of HF in ambulatory patients. A cohort of 2507 ambulatory patients with chronic HF was prospectively followed for a median of 3.3 years. Clinical, echocardiographic, ECG, and biochemical variables were used in a competing risk regression analysis to construct a risk score for readmissions due to worsening of HF. Thereafter, the score was externally validated using a different cohort of 992 patients with chronic HF (MUSIC registry). Predictors of 1-month readmission were the presence of elevated natriuretic peptides, left ventricular (LV) HF signs, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/m(2) . Predictors of 1-year readmission were elevated natriuretic peptides, anaemia, left atrial size >26 mm/m(2) , heart rate >70 b.p.m., LV HF signs, and eGFR <60 mL/min/m(2) . The C-statistics for the models were 0.72 and 0.66, respectively. The cumulative incidence function distinguished low-risk (<1% event rate) and high-risk groups (>5% event rate) for 1-month HF readmission. Likewise, low-risk (7.8%), intermediate-risk (15.6%) and high-risk groups (26.1%) were identified for 1-year HF readmission risk. The C-statistics remained consistent after the external validation (<5% loss of discrimination). The Redin-SCORE predicts early and late readmission for worsening of HF using proven prognostic variables that are routinely collected in outpatient management of chronic HF. © 2015 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.

Diagnostic inertia in obesity and the impact on cardiovascular risk in primary care: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Martínez-St John, Damian RJ; Palazón-Bru, Antonio; Gil-Guillén, Vicente F; Sepehri, Armina; Navarro-Cremades, Felipe; Ramírez-Prado, Dolores; Orozco-Beltrán, Domingo; Carratalá-Munuera, Concepción; Cortés, Ernesto; Rizo-Baeza, María M

2015-01-01

Background Prevalence of diagnostic inertia (DI), defined as a failure to diagnose disease, has not been analysed in patients with obesity. Aim To quantify DI for cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in patients with obesity, and determine its association with the cardiovascular risk score. Design and setting Cross-sectional study of people ≥40 years attending a preventive programme in primary healthcare centres in Spain in 2003–2004. Method All patients with obesity attending during the first 6 months of the preventive programme were analysed. Participants had to be free of CVD (myocardial ischaemia or stroke) and aged 40–65 years; the criteria used to measure SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation). Three subgroups of patients with obesity with no personal history of CVRF but with poor control of risk factors were established. Outcome variable was DI, defined as poor control of risk factors and no action taken by the physician. Secondary variables were diabetes, fasting blood glucose (FBG), body mass index (BMI), and SCORE. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) was determined using multivariate logistic regression models. Results Of 8687 patients with obesity in the programme, 6230 fulfilled SCORE criteria. Prevalence of DI in the three subgroups was: hypertension, 1275/1816 (70.2%) patients affected (95% CI = 68.1 to 72.3%); diabetes, 335/359 (93.3%) patients affected (95% CI = 90.7 to 95.9%); dyslipidaemia subgroup, 1796/3341 (53.8%) patients affected (95% CI = 52.1 to 55.4%. Factors associated with DI for each subgroup were: for hypertension, absence of diabetes, higher BMI, and greater cardiovascular risk; for dyslipidaemia, diabetes, higher BMI, and greater cardiovascular risk (SCORE); and for diabetes, lower FBG levels, lower BMI, and greater cardiovascular risk. Conclusion This study quantified DI in patients with obesity and determined that it was associated with a greater cardiovascular risk. PMID:26120135

External Validation of Risk Prediction Scores for Invasive Candidiasis in a Medical/Surgical Intensive Care Unit: An Observational Study

PubMed Central

Ahmed, Armin; Baronia, Arvind Kumar; Azim, Afzal; Marak, Rungmei S. K.; Yadav, Reema; Sharma, Preeti; Gurjar, Mohan; Poddar, Banani; Singh, Ratender Kumar

2017-01-01

Background: The aim of this study was to conduct external validation of risk prediction scores for invasive candidiasis. Methods: We conducted a prospective observational study in a 12-bedded adult medical/surgical Intensive Care Unit (ICU) to evaluate Candida score >3, colonization index (CI) >0.5, corrected CI >0.4 (CCI), and Ostrosky's clinical prediction rule (CPR). Patients' characteristics and risk factors for invasive candidiasis were noted. Patients were divided into two groups; invasive candidiasis and no-invasive candidiasis. Results: Of 198 patients, 17 developed invasive candidiasis. Discriminatory power (area under receiver operator curve [AUROC]) for Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.66, 0.67, 0.63, and 0.62, respectively. A large number of patients in the no-invasive candidiasis group (114 out of 181) were exposed to antifungal agents during their stay in ICU. Subgroup analysis was carried out after excluding such patients from no-invasive candidiasis group. AUROC of Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.7, 0.7, 0.65, and 0.72, respectively, and positive predictive values (PPVs) were in the range of 25%–47%, along with negative predictive values (NPVs) in the range of 84%–96% in the subgroup analysis. Conclusion: Currently available risk prediction scores have good NPV but poor PPV. They are useful for selecting patients who are not likely to benefit from antifungal therapy. PMID:28904481

A New Method to Assess Asymmetry in Fingerprints Could Be Used as an Early Indicator of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Morris, Molly R; Ludwar, Bjoern Ch; Swingle, Evan; Mamo, Mahelet N; Shubrook, Jay H

2016-07-01

Inexpensive screening tools are needed to identify individuals predisposed to developing diabetes mellitus (DM). Such early identification coupled with an effective intervention could help many people avoid the substantial health costs of this disease. We investigated the hypothesis that fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in fingerprints is an indicator of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Participants with T2DM, with T1DM, and without any indication or known family history of diabetes were fingerprinted with a Crossmatch Verifier 320 LC scanner. Asymmetry scores for each finger pair were assessed using both pattern analysis (ridge counts), and a wavelet-based analysis. Both methods for scoring asymmetry predicted risk of T2DM for finger pair IV, controlling for gender and age. AUC scores were significantly greater than the null for pattern asymmetry scores (finger IV AUC = 0.74), and wavelet asymmetry scores for finger pair IV (AUC = 0.73) and finger pair V (AUC = 0.73), for predicting T2DM. In addition, wavelet asymmetry scores for finger pair IV (AUC = 0.80) and finger pair V (AUC = 0.85) significantly predicted risk of T1DM. A diagnostic tool based on FA in the fingerprints of finger pair IV, measured using a wavelet analysis could be developed for predicting risk prior to associated health problems for both T2DM and T1DM. In addition, given that that the prints for fingers IV and V develop during the 14-17 weeks of gestation, we predict that interventions during this time period of pregnancy will be most successful. © 2016 Diabetes Technology Society.

Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts.

PubMed

de Las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine; Mahabadi, Amir Abbas; Koenig, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994-1995) and S4 (1999-2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000-2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany.

Taxometric Analyses of Specific Language Impairment in 6-Year-Old Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dollaghan, Christine A.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To determine whether language scores at age 6 years suggest that specific language impairments (SLIs) distribute in a categorical or in a dimensional fashion. Method: A taxometric analysis of language scores from 601 six-year-old children who were free of neonatal risk factors was performed. From among 4 candidate indicators of SLI, 2…

A new risk prediction model for critical care: the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) model.

PubMed

Harrison, David A; Parry, Gareth J; Carpenter, James R; Short, Alasdair; Rowan, Kathy

2007-04-01

To develop a new model to improve risk prediction for admissions to adult critical care units in the UK. Prospective cohort study. The setting was 163 adult, general critical care units in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, December 1995 to August 2003. Patients were 216,626 critical care admissions. None. The performance of different approaches to modeling physiologic measurements was evaluated, and the best methods were selected to produce a new physiology score. This physiology score was combined with other information relating to the critical care admission-age, diagnostic category, source of admission, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation before admission-to develop a risk prediction model. Modeling interactions between diagnostic category and physiology score enabled the inclusion of groups of admissions that are frequently excluded from risk prediction models. The new model showed good discrimination (mean c index 0.870) and fit (mean Shapiro's R 0.665, mean Brier's score 0.132) in 200 repeated validation samples and performed well when compared with recalibrated versions of existing published risk prediction models in the cohort of patients eligible for all models. The hypothesis of perfect fit was rejected for all models, including the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) model, as is to be expected in such a large cohort. The ICNARC model demonstrated better discrimination and overall fit than existing risk prediction models, even following recalibration of these models. We recommend it be used to replace previously published models for risk adjustment in the UK.

Complications of stent placement in patients with esophageal cancer: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Doosti-Irani, Amin; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Rahimi-Foroushani, Abbas; Haddad, Peiman

2017-01-01

Background Palliative treatments and stents are necessary for relieving dysphagia in patients with esophageal cancer. The aim of this study was to simultaneously compare available treatments in terms of complications. Methods Web of Science, Medline, Scopus, Cochrane Library and Embase were searched. Statistical heterogeneity was assessed using the Chi2 test and was quantified by I2. The results of this study were summarized in terms of Risk Ratio (RR). The random effects model was used to report the results. The rank probability for each treatment was calculated using the p-score. Results Out of 17855 references, 24 RCTs reported complications including treatment related death (TRD), bleeding, stent migration, aspiration, severe pain and fistula formation. In the ranking of treatments, thermal ablative therapy (p-score = 0.82), covered Evolution® stent (p-score = 0.70), brachytherapy (p-score = 0.72) and antireflux stent (p-score = 0.74) were better treatments in the network of TRD. Thermal ablative therapy (p-score = 0.86), the conventional stent (p-score = 0.62), covered Evolution® stent (p-score = 0.96) and brachytherapy (p-score = 0.82) were better treatments in the network of bleeding complications. Covered Evolution® (p-score = 0.78), uncovered (p-score = 0.88) and irradiation stents (p-score = 0.65) were better treatments in network of stent migration complications. In the network of severe pain, Conventional self-expandable nitinol alloy covered stent (p-score = 0.73), polyflex (p-score = 0.79), latex prosthesis (p-score = 0.96) and brachytherapy (p-score = 0.65) were better treatments. Conclusion According to our results, thermal ablative therapy, covered Evolution® stents, brachytherapy, and antireflux stents are associated with a lower risk of TRD. Moreover, thermal ablative therapy, conventional, covered Evolution® and brachytherapy had lower risks of bleeding. Overall, fewer complications were associated with covered Evolution® stent and brachytherapy. PMID:28968416

[Validation of an instrument for screening cases of type 2 diabetes and monitoring at-risk individuals in Mexico].

PubMed

Guerrero-Romero, Fernando; Rodríguez-Morán, Martha

2010-03-01

To validate a method for screening cases of type 2 diabetes and monitoring at-risk people in a community in northern Mexico. The screening instrument for type 2 diabetes (ITD, for its Spanish acronym) was developed using a multiple logistic regression analysis that made it possible to determine the association between a new diagnosis of diabetes (a dependent variable) and 11 known risk factors. Internal validations were performed (through v-fold cross-validation), together with external validations (through the monitoring of a cohort of healthy individuals). In order to estimate the relative risk (RR) of developing type 2 diabetes, the total ITD score is calculated on the basis of an individual's risk factors and compared against a curve that shows the probability of that individual developing the disease. Of the 525 people in the cohort, 438 (83.4%) were followed for an average of 7 years (4.5 to 10 years), for a total of 2 696 person-years; 62 (14.2%) people developed diabetes during the time they were followed. Individuals scoring 55 points based on their risk factors demonstrated a significantly higher risk of developing diabetes in 7 years (RR = 6.1; IC95%: 1.7 to 11.1); the risk was even higher for those with a score of 75 points (RR = 9.4; IC95%: 2.1 to 11.5). The ITD is easy to use and a valid screening alternative for type 2 diabetes. Its use will allow more individuals to benefit from disease prevention methods and early diagnosis without substantially increasing costs and with minimal use of laboratory resources.

Community cardiovascular disease risk from cross-sectional general practice clinical data: a spatial analysis.

PubMed

Bagheri, Nasser; Gilmour, Bridget; McRae, Ian; Konings, Paul; Dawda, Paresh; Del Fante, Peter; van Weel, Chris

2015-02-26

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to be a leading cause of illness and death among adults worldwide. The objective of this study was to calculate a CVD risk score from general practice (GP) clinical records and assess spatial variations of CVD risk in communities. We used GP clinical data for 4,740 men and women aged 30 to 74 years with no history of CVD. A 10-year absolute CVD risk score was calculated based on the Framingham risk equation. The individual risk scores were aggregated within each Statistical Area Level One (SA1) to predict the level of CVD risk in that area. Finally, the pattern of CVD risk was visualized to highlight communities with high and low risk of CVD. The overall 10-year risk of CVD in our sample population was 14.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.3%-14.9%). Of the 4,740 patients in our study, 26.7% were at high risk, 29.8% were at moderate risk, and 43.5% were at low risk for CVD over 10 years. The proportion of patients at high risk for CVD was significantly higher in the communities of low socioeconomic status. This study illustrates methods to further explore prevalence, location, and correlates of CVD to identify communities of high levels of unmet need for cardiovascular care and to enable geographic targeting of effective interventions for enhancing early and timely detection and management of CVD in those communities.

A qualitative analysis exploring preferred methods of peer support to encourage adherence to a Mediterranean diet in a Northern European population at high risk of cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Erwin, Christina M; McEvoy, Claire T; Moore, Sarah E; Prior, Lindsay; Lawton, Julia; Kee, Frank; Cupples, Margaret E; Young, Ian S; Appleton, Katherine; McKinley, Michelle C; Woodside, Jayne V

2018-02-05

Epidemiological and randomised controlled trial evidence demonstrates that adherence to a Mediterranean diet (MD) can reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, methods used to support dietary change have been intensive and expensive. Peer support has been suggested as a possible cost-effective method to encourage adherence to a MD in at risk populations, although development of such a programme has not been explored. The purpose of this study was to use mixed-methods to determine the preferred peer support approach to encourage adherence to a MD. Qualitative (focus groups) and quantitative methods (questionnaire and preference scoring sheet) were used to determine preferred methods of peer support. Sixty-seven high CVD risk participants took part in 12 focus groups (60% female, mean age 64 years) and completed a questionnaire and preference scoring sheet. Focus group data were transcribed and thematically analysed. The mean preference score (1 being most preferred and 5 being least preferred) for group support was 1.5, compared to 3.4 for peer mentorship, 4.0 for telephone peer support and 4.0 for internet peer support. Three key themes were identified from the transcripts: 1. Components of an effective peer support group: discussions around group peer support were predominantly positive. It was suggested that an effective group develops from people who consider themselves similar to each other meeting face-to-face, leading to the development of a group identity that embraces trust and honesty. 2. Catalysing Motivation: participants discussed that a group peer support model could facilitate interpersonal motivations including encouragement, competitiveness and accountability. 3. Stepping Stones of Change: participants conceptualised change as a process, and discussed that, throughout the process, different models of peer support might be more or less useful. A group-based approach was the preferred method of peer support to encourage a population at high risk of CVD to adhere to a MD. This finding should be recognised in the development of interventions to encourage adoption of a MD in a Northern European population.

A Retrospective Analysis of Post-Stroke Berg Balance Scale Scores: How Should Normal and At-Risk Scores Be Interpreted?

PubMed Central

Inness, Elizabeth; McIlroy, William E.; Mansfield, Avril

2017-01-01

Purpose: The Berg Balance Scale (BBS) is a performance-based measure of standing balance commonly used by clinicians working with individuals post-stroke. Performance on the BBS can be influenced by compensatory strategies, but measures derived from two force plates can isolate compensatory strategies and thus better indicate balance impairment. This study examined BBS scores that reflect “normal” and disordered balance with respect to dual force-plate measures of standing balance in individuals post-stroke. Methods: BBS and force-plate measures were extracted from 75 patient charts. Individuals were classified by BBS score with respect to (1) age-matched normative values and (2) values that suggested increased risk of falls. Multiple analysis of variance was used to examine the effect of group assignment on force-plate measures of standing balance. Results: Individuals with BBS scores within and below normative values did not differ in force-plate measures. Individuals with BBS scores below the falls risk cutoff loaded their affected leg less than individuals with BBS scores above the cutoff. There were no other differences in force-plate measures between these two groups. Conclusions: BBS scores indicating either normal or disordered balance function are not necessarily associated with normal or disordered quiet standing-balance control measured by two force plates. This finding suggests that the BBS may reflect a capacity for compensation rather than any underlying impairments. PMID:28539694

Predicting the occurrence of embolic events: an analysis of 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the Italian Study on Endocarditis (SEI)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Embolic events are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with infective endocarditis. We analyzed the database of the prospective cohort study SEI in order to identify factors associated with the occurrence of embolic events and to develop a scoring system for the assessment of the risk of embolism. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the multicenter study SEI. Predictors of embolism were identified. Risk factors identified at multivariate analysis as predictive of embolism in left-sided endocarditis, were used for the development of a risk score: 1 point was assigned to each risk factor (total risk score range: minimum 0 points; maximum 2 points). Three categories were defined by the score: low (0 points), intermediate (1 point), or high risk (2 points); the probability of embolic events per risk category was calculated for each day on treatment (day 0 through day 30). Results There were 499 episodes of infective endocarditis (34%) that were complicated by ≥ 1 embolic event. Most embolic events occurred early in the clinical course (first week of therapy: 15.5 episodes per 1000 patient days; second week: 3.7 episodes per 1000 patient days). In the total cohort, the factors associated with the occurrence of embolism at multivariate analysis were prosthetic valve localization (odds ratio, 1.84), right-sided endocarditis (odds ratio, 3.93), Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.23) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 1.86). In left-sided endocarditis, Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.1) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 2.1) were independently associated with embolic events; the 30-day cumulative incidence of embolism varied with risk score category (low risk, 12%; intermediate risk, 25%; high risk, 38%; p < 0.001). Conclusions Staphylococcus aureus etiology and vegetation size are associated with an increased risk of embolism. In left-sided endocarditis, a simple scoring system, which combines etiology and vegetation size with time on antimicrobials, might contribute to a better assessment of the risk of embolism, and to a more individualized analysis of indications and contraindications for early surgery. PMID:24779617

Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Jiancang

2010-04-01

This paper presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points betted by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. We also calculate the upper bound of the gambling score when the true model is a renewal process, the stress release model or the ETAS model and when the reference model is the Poisson model.

Simple Scoring System and Artificial Neural Network for Knee Osteoarthritis Risk Prediction: A Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Yoo, Tae Keun; Kim, Deok Won; Choi, Soo Beom; Oh, Ein; Park, Jee Soo

2016-01-01

Background Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disease of adults worldwide. Since the treatments for advanced radiographic knee OA are limited, clinicians face a significant challenge of identifying patients who are at high risk of OA in a timely and appropriate way. Therefore, we developed a simple self-assessment scoring system and an improved artificial neural network (ANN) model for knee OA. Methods The Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (KNHANES V-1) data were used to develop a scoring system and ANN for radiographic knee OA. A logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of the scoring system. The ANN was constructed using 1777 participants and validated internally on 888 participants in the KNHANES V-1. The predictors of the scoring system were selected as the inputs of the ANN. External validation was performed using 4731 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic was calculated to compare the prediction models. Results The scoring system and ANN were built using the independent predictors including sex, age, body mass index, educational status, hypertension, moderate physical activity, and knee pain. In the internal validation, both scoring system and ANN predicted radiographic knee OA (AUC 0.73 versus 0.81, p<0.001) and symptomatic knee OA (AUC 0.88 versus 0.94, p<0.001) with good discriminative ability. In the external validation, both scoring system and ANN showed lower discriminative ability in predicting radiographic knee OA (AUC 0.62 versus 0.67, p<0.001) and symptomatic knee OA (AUC 0.70 versus 0.76, p<0.001). Conclusions The self-assessment scoring system may be useful for identifying the adults at high risk for knee OA. The performance of the scoring system is improved significantly by the ANN. We provided an ANN calculator to simply predict the knee OA risk. PMID:26859664

Quantification of myocardium at risk in ST- elevation myocardial infarction: a comparison of contrast-enhanced steady-state free precession cine cardiovascular magnetic resonance with coronary angiographic jeopardy scores.

PubMed

De Palma, Rodney; Sörensson, Peder; Verouhis, Dinos; Pernow, John; Saleh, Nawzad

2017-07-27

Clinical outcome following acute myocardial infarction is predicted by final infarct size evaluated in relation to left ventricular myocardium at risk (MaR). Contrast-enhanced steady-state free precession (CE-SSFP) cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) is not widely used for assessing MaR. Evidence of its utility compared to traditional assessment methods and as a surrogate for clinical outcome is needed. Retrospective analysis within a study evaluating post-conditioning during ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated with coronary intervention (n = 78). CE-SSFP post-infarction was compared with angiographic jeopardy methods. Differences and variability between CMR and angiographic methods using Bland-Altman analyses were evaluated. Clinical outcomes were compared to MaR and extent of infarction. MaR showed correlation between CE-SSFP, and both BARI and APPROACH scores of 0.83 (p < 0.0001) and 0.84 (p < 0.0001) respectively. Bias between CE-SSFP and BARI was 1.1% (agreement limits -11.4 to +9.1). Bias between CE-SSFP and APPROACH was 1.2% (agreement limits -13 to +10.5). Inter-observer variability for the BARI score was 0.56 ± 2.9; 0.42 ± 2.1 for the APPROACH score; -1.4 ± 3.1% for CE-SSFP. Intra-observer variability was 0.15 ± 1.85 for the BARI score; for the APPROACH score 0.19 ± 1.6; and for CE-SSFP -0.58 ± 2.9%. Quantification of MaR with CE-SSFP imaging following STEMI shows high correlation and low bias compared with angiographic scoring and supports its use as a reliable and practical method to determine myocardial salvage in this patient population. Clinical trial registration information for the parent clinical trial: Karolinska Clinical Trial Registration (2008) Unique identifier: CT20080014. Registered 04 th January 2008.

Critical Combinations of Radiation Dose and Volume Predict Intelligence Quotient and Academic Achievement Scores After Craniospinal Irradiation in Children With Medulloblastoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Merchant, Thomas E., E-mail: thomas.merchant@stjude.org; Schreiber, Jane E.; Wu, Shengjie

Purpose: To prospectively follow children treated with craniospinal irradiation to determine critical combinations of radiation dose and volume that would predict for cognitive effects. Methods and Materials: Between 1996 and 2003, 58 patients (median age 8.14 years, range 3.99-20.11 years) with medulloblastoma received risk-adapted craniospinal irradiation followed by dose-intense chemotherapy and were followed longitudinally with multiple cognitive evaluations (through 5 years after treatment) that included intelligence quotient (estimated intelligence quotient, full-scale, verbal, and performance) and academic achievement (math, reading, spelling) tests. Craniospinal irradiation consisted of 23.4 Gy for average-risk patients (nonmetastatic) and 36-39.6 Gy for high-risk patients (metastatic or residual disease >1.5 cm{sup 2}). The primary sitemore » was treated using conformal or intensity modulated radiation therapy using a 2-cm clinical target volume margin. The effect of clinical variables and radiation dose to different brain volumes were modeled to estimate cognitive scores after treatment. Results: A decline with time for all test scores was observed for the entire cohort. Sex, race, and cerebrospinal fluid shunt status had a significant impact on baseline scores. Age and mean radiation dose to specific brain volumes, including the temporal lobes and hippocampi, had a significant impact on longitudinal scores. Dichotomized dose distributions at 25 Gy, 35 Gy, 45 Gy, and 55 Gy were modeled to show the impact of the high-dose volume on longitudinal test scores. The 50% risk of a below-normal cognitive test score was calculated according to mean dose and dose intervals between 25 Gy and 55 Gy at 10-Gy increments according to brain volume and age. Conclusions: The ability to predict cognitive outcomes in children with medulloblastoma using dose-effects models for different brain subvolumes will improve treatment planning, guide intervention, and help estimate the value of newer methods of irradiation.« less

A novel ultrasound-based vascular calcification score (CALCS) to detect subclinical atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Flore, R; Zocco, M A; Ainora, M E; Fonnesu, C; Nesci, A; Gasbarrini, A; Ponziani, F R

2018-02-01

To quantify non-coronary vascular calcifications (VC) in asymptomatic patients at low-intermediate cardiovascular risk by a new color Doppler ultrasound (DUS)-based score (the carotid, aortic, lower limbs calcium score, CALCs), and to correlate this score with classical parameters associated with cardiovascular risk [carotid intima media thickness (IMT), and arterial stiffness (AS)]. All consecutive asymptomatic patients who underwent a screening DUS of non-coronary circulation were evaluated and patients at low-intermediate cardiovascular risk were selected according to Framingham risk score (FRS). Among them, we enrolled 70 patients with US evidence of VC and 71 age, sex and FRS matched controls. The presence of VC was correlated with classical markers of cardiovascular risk, such as AS and intima-media thickness (IMT). AS, expressed as pulse wave velocity (PWV) and arterial distensibility, carotid IMT and CALCs were measured for both groups. AS and c-IMT were assessed by a new Radio-Frequency (RF) DUS-based method. CALCs was generated by our previously described B-mode DUS-based method according to number/size of VC in 11 non-coronary segments (range 0-33). Patients with VC presented higher AS and IMT values than controls (PWV 8.34±0.98 m/s vs. 6.74±0.68 m/s, p<0.0001; arterial distensibility 267±12 mm vs. 315±65 mm, p=0.001; IMT 687±132 mm vs. 572±91 mm, p<0.0001). Mean CALCs of patients with VC was 8.41±7.78. CALCs were significantly correlated with c-IMT (p<0.0001; r=0.3), PWV (p<0.0001; r=0.4) and arterial distensibility (p=0.002; r=-0.1). DUS-based CALCs is highly correlated with other validated markers of subclinical atherosclerosis, such as c-IMT and AS. Our results demonstrated the ability of CALCs to identify individual predictive factors beyond the traditional risk factors by quantifying an interesting and novel step of the atherogenic process. Future studies on larger series and with adequate follow up are necessary to confirm these results and to evaluate the role of this new marker in monitoring calcific atherosclerosis progression.

A Risk Score for Predicting Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Dobson, Ruth; Ramagopalan, Sreeram; Topping, Joanne; Smith, Paul; Solanky, Bhavana; Schmierer, Klaus; Chard, Declan; Giovannoni, Gavin

2016-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) develops as a result of environmental influences on the genetically susceptible. Siblings of people with MS have an increased risk of both MS and demonstrating asymptomatic changes in keeping with MS. We set out to develop an MS risk score integrating both genetic and environmental risk factors. We used this score to identify siblings at extremes of MS risk and attempted to validate the score using brain MRI. 78 probands with MS, 121 of their unaffected siblings and 103 healthy controls were studied. Personal history was taken, and serological and genetic analysis using the illumina immunochip was performed. Odds ratios for MS associated with each risk factor were derived from existing literature, and the log values of the odds ratios from each of the risk factors were combined in an additive model to provide an overall score. Scores were initially calculated using log odds ratio from the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele only, secondly using data from all MS-associated SNPs identified in the 2011 GWAS. Subjects with extreme risk scores underwent validation studies. MRI was performed on selected individuals. There was a significant difference in the both risk scores between people with MS, their unaffected siblings and healthy controls (p<0.0005). Unaffected siblings had a risk score intermediate to people with MS and controls (p<0.0005). The best performing risk score generated an AUC of 0.82 (95%CI 0.75-0.88). The risk score demonstrates an AUC on the threshold for clinical utility. Our score enables the identification of a high-risk sibling group to inform pre-symptomatic longitudinal studies.

Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

PubMed

Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

2007-03-01

To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (P<.001). The difference between the combined report and usual care was significant (P<.001) and directly proportional to baseline risk. The three-level risk classification did not reveal approximately 57.3% of the intervention effect detected by the risk score. The risk score also was sufficiently sensitive to detect the intervention effect within the subset of hypertensive patients (n=112; P=.001). As an outcome measure in intervention trials, the finely grained risk score is more sensitive than the trinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

Development and validation of a melanoma risk score based on pooled data from 16 case-control studies

PubMed Central

Davies, John R; Chang, Yu-mei; Bishop, D Timothy; Armstrong, Bruce K; Bataille, Veronique; Bergman, Wilma; Berwick, Marianne; Bracci, Paige M; Elwood, J Mark; Ernstoff, Marc S; Green, Adele; Gruis, Nelleke A; Holly, Elizabeth A; Ingvar, Christian; Kanetsky, Peter A; Karagas, Margaret R; Lee, Tim K; Le Marchand, Loïc; Mackie, Rona M; Olsson, Håkan; Østerlind, Anne; Rebbeck, Timothy R; Reich, Kristian; Sasieni, Peter; Siskind, Victor; Swerdlow, Anthony J; Titus, Linda; Zens, Michael S; Ziegler, Andreas; Gallagher, Richard P.; Barrett, Jennifer H; Newton-Bishop, Julia

2015-01-01

Background We report the development of a cutaneous melanoma risk algorithm based upon 7 factors; hair colour, skin type, family history, freckling, nevus count, number of large nevi and history of sunburn, intended to form the basis of a self-assessment webtool for the general public. Methods Predicted odds of melanoma were estimated by analysing a pooled dataset from 16 case-control studies using logistic random coefficients models. Risk categories were defined based on the distribution of the predicted odds in the controls from these studies. Imputation was used to estimate missing data in the pooled datasets. The 30th, 60th and 90th centiles were used to distribute individuals into four risk groups for their age, sex and geographic location. Cross-validation was used to test the robustness of the thresholds for each group by leaving out each study one by one. Performance of the model was assessed in an independent UK case-control study dataset. Results Cross-validation confirmed the robustness of the threshold estimates. Cases and controls were well discriminated in the independent dataset (area under the curve 0.75, 95% CI 0.73-0.78). 29% of cases were in the highest risk group compared with 7% of controls, and 43% of controls were in the lowest risk group compared with 13% of cases. Conclusion We have identified a composite score representing an estimate of relative risk and successfully validated this score in an independent dataset. Impact This score may be a useful tool to inform members of the public about their melanoma risk. PMID:25713022

The Dutch Hospital Standardised Mortality Ratio (HSMR) method and cardiac surgery: benchmarking in a national cohort using hospital administration data versus a clinical database

PubMed Central

Siregar, S; Pouw, M E; Moons, K G M; Versteegh, M I M; Bots, M L; van der Graaf, Y; Kalkman, C J; van Herwerden, L A; Groenwold, R H H

2014-01-01

Objective To compare the accuracy of data from hospital administration databases and a national clinical cardiac surgery database and to compare the performance of the Dutch hospital standardised mortality ratio (HSMR) method and the logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation, for the purpose of benchmarking of mortality across hospitals. Methods Information on all patients undergoing cardiac surgery between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2010 in 10 centres was extracted from The Netherlands Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery database and the Hospital Discharge Registry. The number of cardiac surgery interventions was compared between both databases. The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation and hospital standardised mortality ratio models were updated in the study population and compared using the C-statistic, calibration plots and the Brier-score. Results The number of cardiac surgery interventions performed could not be assessed using the administrative database as the intervention code was incorrect in 1.4–26.3%, depending on the type of intervention. In 7.3% no intervention code was registered. The updated administrative model was inferior to the updated clinical model with respect to discrimination (c-statistic of 0.77 vs 0.85, p<0.001) and calibration (Brier Score of 2.8% vs 2.6%, p<0.001, maximum score 3.0%). Two average performing hospitals according to the clinical model became outliers when benchmarking was performed using the administrative model. Conclusions In cardiac surgery, administrative data are less suitable than clinical data for the purpose of benchmarking. The use of either administrative or clinical risk-adjustment models can affect the outlier status of hospitals. Risk-adjustment models including procedure-specific clinical risk factors are recommended. PMID:24334377

Assessment of rockfall risk along roads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budetta, P.

2004-03-01

This paper contains a method for the analysis of rockfall risk along roads and motorways. The method is derived from the Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) developed by Pierson et al. (1990) at the Oregon State Highway Division. The RHRS provides a rational way to make informed decisions on where and how to spend construction funds. Exponential scoring functions are used to represent the increases, respectively, in hazard and in vulnerability that are reflected in the nine categories forming the classification. The resulting total score contains the essential elements regarding the evaluation of the degree of the exposition to the risk along roads. In the modified method, the ratings for the categories "ditch effectiveness", "geologic characteristic", "volume of rockfall/block size", "climate and water circulation" and "rockfall history" have been rendered more easy and objective. The main modifications regard the introduction of Slope Mass Rating by Romana (1985, 1988, 1991) improving the estimate of the geologic characteristics, of the volume of the potentially unstable blocks and the underground water circulation. Other modifications regard the scoring for the categories "decision sight distance" and "road geometry". For these categories, the Italian National Council's standards (Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - CNR) have been used (CNR, 1980). The method must be applied in both the traffic directions because the percentage of reduction in the decision sight distance greatly affects the results. An application of the modified method to a 2km long section of the Sorrentine road (no 145) in Southern Italy was developed. A high traffic intensity affects the entire section of the road and rockfalls periodically cause casualties, as well as a large amount of damage and traffic interruptions. The method was applied to seven cross sections of slopes adjacent to the Sorrentine road. For these slopes, the analysis shows that the risk is unacceptable and it should be reduced using urgent remedial works.

A population-based study of tumor gene expression and risk of breast cancer death among lymph node-negative patients.

PubMed

Habel, Laurel A; Shak, Steven; Jacobs, Marlena K; Capra, Angela; Alexander, Claire; Pho, Mylan; Baker, Joffre; Walker, Michael; Watson, Drew; Hackett, James; Blick, Noelle T; Greenberg, Deborah; Fehrenbacher, Louis; Langholz, Bryan; Quesenberry, Charles P

2006-01-01

The Oncotype DX assay was recently reported to predict risk for distant recurrence among a clinical trial population of tamoxifen-treated patients with lymph node-negative, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. To confirm and extend these findings, we evaluated the performance of this 21-gene assay among node-negative patients from a community hospital setting. A case-control study was conducted among 4,964 Kaiser Permanente patients diagnosed with node-negative invasive breast cancer from 1985 to 1994 and not treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Cases (n = 220) were patients who died from breast cancer. Controls (n = 570) were breast cancer patients who were individually matched to cases with respect to age, race, adjuvant tamoxifen, medical facility and diagnosis year, and were alive at the date of death of their matched case. Using an RT-PCR assay, archived tumor tissues were analyzed for expression levels of 16 cancer-related and five reference genes, and a summary risk score (the Recurrence Score) was calculated for each patient. Conditional logistic regression methods were used to estimate the association between risk of breast cancer death and Recurrence Score. After adjusting for tumor size and grade, the Recurrence Score was associated with risk of breast cancer death in ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated and -untreated patients (P = 0.003 and P = 0.03, respectively). At 10 years, the risks for breast cancer death in ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated patients were 2.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7-3.9%), 10.7% (95% CI 6.3-14.9%), and 15.5% (95% CI 7.6-22.8%) for those in the low, intermediate and high risk Recurrence Score groups, respectively. They were 6.2% (95% CI 4.5-7.9%), 17.8% (95% CI 11.8-23.3%), and 19.9% (95% CI 14.2-25.2%) for ER-positive patients not treated with tamoxifen. In both the tamoxifen-treated and -untreated groups, approximately 50% of patients had low risk Recurrence Score values. In this large, population-based study of lymph node-negative patients not treated with chemotherapy, the Recurrence Score was strongly associated with risk of breast cancer death among ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated and -untreated patients.

Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhong, Bin-Yan; He, Shi-Cheng; Zhu, Hai-Dong

PurposeWe aim to determine the predictors of new adjacent vertebral fractures (AVCFs) after percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) and to construct a risk prediction score to estimate a 2-year new AVCF risk-by-risk factor condition.Materials and MethodsPatients with OVCFs who underwent their first PVP between December 2006 and December 2013 at Hospital A (training cohort) and Hospital B (validation cohort) were included in this study. In training cohort, we assessed the independent risk predictors and developed the probability of new adjacent OVCFs (PNAV) score system using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The accuracy ofmore » this system was then validated in both training and validation cohorts by concordance (c) statistic.Results421 patients (training cohort: n = 256; validation cohort: n = 165) were included in this study. In training cohort, new AVCFs after the first PVP treatment occurred in 33 (12.9%) patients. The independent risk factors were intradiscal cement leakage and preexisting old vertebral compression fracture(s). The estimated 2-year absolute risk of new AVCFs ranged from less than 4% in patients with neither independent risk factors to more than 45% in individuals with both factors.ConclusionsThe PNAV score is an objective and easy approach to predict the risk of new AVCFs.« less

Prenatal High Risk Scoring: How Family Doctors Do It

PubMed Central

Shea, Philip

1978-01-01

Assessment of risk factors is an integral part of family medicine and of prenatal care. A strong positive relationship has been demonstrated between a high risk score and higher incidence of maternal or perinatal morbidity and mortality. The family physician, because of his previous knowledge of the patient, and his familiarity with a broad range of normals, is in a good position to use his clinical judgement in high risk scoring in pregnancy. We must also be cautious that high risk scoring does not become a self fulfilling prophecy. Risk scoring is simply risk scoring, not a plan of management and intervention. PMID:21301562

A Risk Score Model for Evaluation and Management of Patients with Thyroid Nodules.

PubMed

Zhang, Yongwen; Meng, Fanrong; Hong, Lianqing; Chu, Lanfang

2018-06-12

The study is aimed to establish a simplified and practical tool for analyzing thyroid nodules. A novel risk score model was designed, risk factors including patient history, patient characteristics, physical examination, symptoms of compression, thyroid function, ultrasonography (US) of thyroid and cervical lymph nodes were evaluated and classified into high risk factors, intermediate risk factors, and low risk factors. A total of 243 thyroid nodules in 162 patients were assessed with risk score system and Thyroid Imaging-Reporting and Data System (TI-RADS). The diagnostic performance of risk score system and TI-RADS was compared. The accuracy in the diagnosis of thyroid nodules was 89.3% for risk score system, 74.9% for TI-RADS respectively. The specificity, accuracy and positive predictive value (PPV) of risk score system were significantly higher than the TI-RADS system (χ 2 =26.287, 17.151, 11.983; p <0.05), statistically significant differences were not observed in the sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) between the risk score system and TI-RADS (χ 2 =1.276, 0.290; p>0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) for risk score diagnosis system was 0.963, standard error 0.014, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.934-0.991, the AUC for TI-RADS diagnosis system was 0.912 with standard error 0.021, 95% CI=0.871-0.953, the AUC for risk score system was significantly different from that of TI-RADS (Z=2.02; p <0.05). Risk score model is a reliable, simplified and cost-effective diagnostic tool used in diagnosis of thyroid cancer. The higher the score is, the higher the risk of malignancy will be. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Antiretroviral therapy CNS penetration and HIV-1–associated CNS disease

PubMed Central

Winston, A.; Walsh, J.; Post, F.; Porter, K.; Gazzard, B.; Fisher, M.; Leen, C.; Pillay, D.; Hill, T.; Johnson, M.; Gilson, R.; Anderson, J.; Easterbrook, P.; Bansi, L.; Orkin, C.; Ainsworth, J.; Palfreeman, A.; Gompels, M.; Phillips, A.N.; Sabin, C.A.

2011-01-01

Objective: The impact of different antiretroviral agents on the risk of developing or surviving CNS disease remains unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate whether using antiretroviral regimens with higher CNS penetration effectiveness (CPE) scores was associated with reduced incidence of CNS disease and improved survival in the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) Study. Methods: Adults without previous CNS disease, who commenced combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) between 1996 and 2008, were included (n = 22,356). Initial and most recent cART CPE scores were calculated. CNS diseases were HIV encephalopathy (HIVe), progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), cerebral toxoplasmosis (TOXO), and cryptococcal meningitis (CRYPTO). Incidence rates and overall survival were stratified by CPE score. A multivariable Poisson regression model was used to identify independent associations. Results: The median (interquartile range) CPE score for initial cART regimen increased from 7 (5–8) in 1996–1997 to 9 (8–10) in 2000–2001 and subsequently declined to 6 (7–8) in 2006–2008. Differences in gender, HIV acquisition risk group, and ethnicity existed between CPE score strata. A total of 251 subjects were diagnosed with a CNS disease (HIVe 80; TOXO 59; CRYPTO 56; PML 54). CNS diseases occurred more frequently in subjects prescribed regimens with CPE scores ≤4, and less frequently in those with scores ≥10; however, these differences were nonsignificant. Initial and most recent cART CPE scores ≤4 were independently associated with increased risk of death. Conclusion: Clinical status at time of commencing cART influences antiretroviral selection and CPE score. This information should be considered when utilizing CPE scores for retrospective analyses. PMID:21339496

A cohort study of low Apgar scores and cognitive outcomes

PubMed Central

Odd, D E; Rasmussen, F; Gunnell, D; Lewis, G; Whitelaw, A

2008-01-01

Objective: To investigate the association of brief (0–5 minutes) and prolonged (>5 minutes) low Apgar scores (<7) in non-encephalopathic infants with educational achievement at age 15–16 and intelligence quotients (IQs) at age 18. Design: Population-based record-linkage cohort study of 176 524 male infants born throughout Sweden between 1973 and 1976. Patients and methods: Data from the Medical Birth Register were linked to Population and Housing Censuses, conscription medical records (IQ), and school registers (summary school grade). Infants were classified according to the time for their Apgar score to reach 7 or above. Premature infants and those with encephalopathy were excluded. Results: Infants with brief (OR = 1.14 (1.03–1.27)) or prolonged (OR = 1.35 (1.07–1.69)) low Apgar scores were more likely to have a low IQ score. There was an increased risk of a low IQ score (p = 0.003) the longer it took the infant to achieve a normal Apgar score. There was no association between brief (OR = 0.96 (0.87–1.06)) or prolonged (OR = 1.01 (0.81–1.26)) low Apgar scores and a low summary school grade at age 15–16, or evidence for a trend in the risk of a low school grade (p = 0.61). The estimated proportion with an IQ score below 81 due to transiently low Apgar scores was only 0.7%. Conclusions: Infants in poor condition at birth have increased risk of poor functioning in cognitive tests in later life. This supports the idea of a “continuum of reproductive casualty”, although the small individual effect suggests that these mild degrees of fetal compromise are not of clinical importance. PMID:17916594

Negative Marking and the Student Physician–-A Descriptive Study of Nigerian Medical Schools

PubMed Central

Ndu, Ikenna Kingsley; Ekwochi, Uchenna; Di Osuorah, Chidiebere; Asinobi, Isaac Nwabueze; Nwaneri, Michael Osita; Uwaezuoke, Samuel Nkachukwu; Amadi, Ogechukwu Franscesca; Okeke, Ifeyinwa Bernadette; Chinawa, Josephat Maduabuchi; Orjioke, Casmir James Ginikanwa

2016-01-01

Background There is considerable debate about the two most commonly used scoring methods, namely, the formula scoring (popularly referred to as negative marking method in our environment) and number right scoring methods. Although the negative marking scoring system attempts to discourage students from guessing in order to increase test reliability and validity, there is the view that it is an excessive and unfair penalty that also increases anxiety. Feedback from students is part of the education process; thus, this study assessed the perception of medical students about negative marking method for multiple choice question (MCQ) examination formats and also the effect of gender and risk-taking behavior on scores obtained with this assessment method. Methods This was a prospective multicenter survey carried out among fifth year medical students in Enugu State University and the University of Nigeria. A structured questionnaire was administered to 175 medical students from the two schools, while a class test was administered to medical students from Enugu State University. Qualitative statistical methods including frequencies, percentages, and chi square were used to analyze categorical variables. Quantitative statistics using analysis of variance was used to analyze continuous variables. Results Inquiry into assessment format revealed that most of the respondents preferred MCQs (65.9%). One hundred and thirty students (74.3%) had an unfavorable perception of negative marking. Thirty-nine students (22.3%) agreed that negative marking reduces the tendency to guess and increases the validity of MCQs examination format in testing knowledge content of a subject compared to 108 (61.3%) who disagreed with this assertion (χ2 = 23.0, df = 1, P = 0.000). The median score of the students who were not graded with negative marking was significantly higher than the score of the students graded with negative marking (P = 0.001). There was no statistically significant difference in the risk-taking behavior between male and female students in their MCQ answering patterns with negative marking method (P = 0.618). Conclusions In the assessment of students, it is more desirable to adopt fair penalties for discouraging guessing rather than excessive penalties for incorrect answers, which could intimidate students in negative marking schemes. There is no consensus on the penalty for an incorrect answer. Thus, there is a need for continued research into an effective and objective assessment tool that will ensure that the students’ final score in a test truly represents their level of knowledge. PMID:29349304

Work-related pesticide poisoning among farmers in two villages of Southern China: a cross-sectional survey

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Pesticide poisoning is an important health problem among Chinese farm workers, but there is a paucity of pesticide poisoning data from China. Using the WHO standard case definition of a possible acute pesticide poisoning, we investigated the prevalence and risk factors of acute work-related pesticide poisoning among farmers in Southern China. Methods A stratified sample of 910 pesticide applicators from two villages in southern China participated in face-to-face interviews. Respondents who self-reported having two or more of a list of sixty-six symptoms within 24 hours after pesticide application were categorized as having suffered acute pesticide poisoning. The association between the composite behavioral risk score and pesticide poisoning were assessed in a multivariate logistic model. Results A total of 80 (8.8%) pesticide applicators reported an acute work-related pesticide poisoning. The most frequent symptoms among applicators were dermal (11.6%) and nervous system (10.7%) symptoms. Poisoning was more common among women, farmers in poor areas, and applicators without safety training (all p < 0.001). After controlling for gender, age, education, geographic area and the behavioral risk score, farmers without safety training had an adjusted odds ratio of 3.22 (95% CI: 1.86-5.60). The likelihood of acute pesticide poisoning was also significantly associated with number of exposure risk behaviors. A significant "dose-response" relationship between composite behavioral risk scores calculated from 9 pesticides exposure risk behaviors and the log odds of pesticide poisoning prevalence was seen among these Chinese farmers (R2 = 0.9246). Conclusions This study found that 8.8% of Chinese pesticide applicators suffered acute pesticide poisoning and suggests that pesticide safety training, safe application methods, and precautionary behavioral measures could be effective in reducing the risk of pesticide poisoning. PMID:21639910

Derivation and Validation of the Surgical Site Infections Risk Model Using Health Administrative Data.

PubMed

van Walraven, Carl; Jackson, Timothy D; Daneman, Nick

2016-04-01

OBJECTIVE Surgical site infections (SSIs) are common hospital-acquired infections. Tracking SSIs is important to monitor their incidence, and this process requires primary data collection. In this study, we derived and validated a method using health administrative data to predict the probability that a person who had surgery would develop an SSI within 30 days. METHODS All patients enrolled in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) from 2 sites were linked to population-based administrative datasets in Ontario, Canada. We derived a multivariate model, stratified by surgical specialty, to determine the independent association of SSI status with patient and hospitalization covariates as well as physician claim codes. This SSI risk model was validated in 2 cohorts. RESULTS The derivation cohort included 5,359 patients with a 30-day SSI incidence of 6.0% (n=118). The SSI risk model predicted the probability that a person had an SSI based on 7 covariates: index hospitalization diagnostic score; physician claims score; emergency visit diagnostic score; operation duration; surgical service; and potential SSI codes. More than 90% of patients had predicted SSI risks lower than 10%. In the derivation group, model discrimination and calibration was excellent (C statistic, 0.912; Hosmer-Lemeshow [H-L] statistic, P=.47). In the 2 validation groups, performance decreased slightly (C statistics, 0.853 and 0.812; H-L statistics, 26.4 [P=.0009] and 8.0 [P=.42]), but low-risk patients were accurately identified. CONCLUSION Health administrative data can effectively identify postoperative patients with a very low risk of surgical site infection within 30 days of their procedure. Records of higher-risk patients can be reviewed to confirm SSI status.

Traumatic Stress Interacts With Bipolar Disorder Genetic Risk to Increase Risk for Suicide Attempts

PubMed Central

Wilcox, Holly C.; Fullerton, Janice M.; Glowinski, Anne L.; Benke, Kelly; Kamali, Masoud; Hulvershorn, Leslie A.; Stapp, Emma K.; Edenberg, Howard J.; Roberts, Gloria M.P.; Ghaziuddin, Neera; Fisher, Carrie; Brucksch, Christine; Frankland, Andrew; Toma, Claudio; Shaw, Alex D.; Kastelic, Elizabeth; Miller, Leslie; McInnis, Melvin G.; Mitchell, Philip B.; Nurnberger, John I.

2018-01-01

Objective Bipolar disorder (BD) is one of the most heritable psychiatric conditions and is associated with high suicide risk. To explore the reasons for this link, this study examined the interaction between traumatic stress and BD polygenic risk score in relation to suicidal ideation, suicide attempt, and nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) in adolescent and young adult offspring and relatives of persons with BD (BD-relatives) compared with adolescent and young adult offspring of individuals without psychiatric disorders (controls). Method Data were collected from 4 sites in the United States and 1 site in Australia from 2006 through 2012. Generalized estimating equation models were used to compare rates of ideation, attempts, and NSSI between BD-relatives (n = 307) and controls (n = 166) and to determine the contribution of demographic factors, traumatic stress exposure, lifetime mood or substance (alcohol/drug) use disorders, and BD polygenic risk score. Results After adjusting for demographic characteristics and mood and substance use disorders, BD-relatives were at increased risk for suicidal ideation and attempts but not for NSSI. Independent of BD-relative versus control status, demographic factors, or mood and substance use disorders, exposure to trauma within the past year (including bullying, sexual abuse, and domestic violence) was associated with suicide attempts (p = .014), and BD polygenic risk score was marginally associated with attempts (p = .061). Importantly, the interaction between BD polygenic risk score and traumatic event exposures was significantly associated with attempts, independent of demographics, relative versus control status, and mood and substance use disorders (p = .041). Conclusion BD-relatives are at increased risk for suicide attempts and ideation, especially if they are exposed to trauma and have evidence of increased genetic vulnerability. PMID:29173741

A Multigene Expression Assay to Predict Local Recurrence Risk for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ of the Breast

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background For women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast, the risk of developing an ipsilateral breast event (IBE; defined as local recurrence of DCIS or invasive carcinoma) after surgical excision without radiation is not well defined by clinical and pathologic characteristics. Methods The Oncotype DX breast cancer assay was performed for patients with DCIS treated with surgical excision without radiation in the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) E5194 study. The association of the prospectively defined DCIS Score (calculated from seven cancer-related genes and five reference genes) with the risk of developing an IBE was analyzed using Cox regression. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results There were 327 patients with adequate tissue for analysis. The continuous DCIS Score was statistically significantly associated with the risk of developing an IBE (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 4.49; P = .02) when adjusted for tamoxifen use (prespecified primary analysis) and with invasive IBE (unadjusted HR = 3.68, 95% CI = 1.34 to 9.62; P = .01). For the prespecified DCIS risk groups of low, intermediate, and high, the 10-year risks of developing an IBE were 10.6%, 26.7%, and 25.9%, respectively, and for an invasive IBE, 3.7%, 12.3%, and 19.2%, respectively (both log rank P ≤ .006). In multivariable analyses, factors associated with IBE risk were DCIS Score, tumor size, and menopausal status (all P ≤ .02). Conclusions The DCIS Score quantifies IBE risk and invasive IBE risk, complements traditional clinical and pathologic factors, and provides a new clinical tool to improve selecting individualized treatment for women with DCIS who meet the ECOG E5194 criteria. PMID:23641039

Evaluation of 22 genetic variants with Crohn's Disease risk in the Ashkenazi Jewish population: a case-control study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Crohn's disease (CD) has the highest prevalence among individuals of Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) descent compared to non-Jewish Caucasian populations (NJ). We evaluated a set of well-established CD-susceptibility variants to determine if they can explain the increased CD risk in the AJ population. Methods We recruited 369 AJ CD patients and 503 AJ controls, genotyped 22 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at or near 10 CD-associated genes, NOD2, IL23R, IRGM, ATG16L1, PTGER4, NKX2-3, IL12B, PTPN2, TNFSF15 and STAT3, and assessed their association with CD status. We generated genetic scores based on the risk allele count alone and the risk allele count weighed by the effect size, and evaluated their predictive value. Results Three NOD2 SNPs, two IL23R SNPs, and one SNP each at IRGM and PTGER4 were independently associated with CD risk. Carriage of 7 or more copies of these risk alleles or the weighted genetic risk score of 7 or greater correctly classified 92% (allelic count score) and 83% (weighted score) of the controls; however, only 29% and 47% of the cases were identified as having the disease, respectively. This cutoff was associated with a >4-fold increased disease risk (p < 10e-16). Conclusions CD-associated genetic risks were similar to those reported in NJ population and are unlikely to explain the excess prevalence of the disease in AJ individuals. These results support the existence of novel, yet unidentified, genetic variants unique to this population. Understanding of ethnic and racial differences in disease susceptibility may help unravel the pathogenesis of CD leading to new personalized diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. PMID:21548950

US Commercial Air Tour Crashes, 2000–2011: Burden, Fatal Risk Factors, and FIA Score Validation

PubMed Central

Ballard, Sarah-Blythe; Beaty, Leland P.; Baker, Susan P.

2013-01-01

Introduction This study provides new public health data concerning the US commercial air tour industry. Risk factors for fatality in air tour crashes were analyzed to determine the value of the FIA score in predicting fatal outcomes. Methods Using the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and National Transportation Safety Board data, the incidence of commercial air tour crashes from 2000 through 2010 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes occurring from 2000 through 2011 were analyzed using regression methods. The FIA score, Li and Baker’s fatality risk index, was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results The industry-wide commercial air tour crash rate was 2.7 per 100,000 flight hours. The incidence rates of Part 91 and 135 commercial air tour crashes were 3.4 and 2.3 per 100,000 flight hours, respectively (relative risk [RR] 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1–2.1, P=0.015). Of the 152 air tour crashes that occurred from 2000 through 2011, 30 (20%) involved at least one fatality and, on average, 3.5 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with three major risk factors: fire (Adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 5.1, 95% CI 1.5–16.7, P=0.008), instrument meteorological conditions (AOR 5.4, 95% CI 1.1–26.4, P=0.038), and off-airport location (AOR 7.2, 95% CI 1.6–33.2, P=0.011). The area under the FIA Score’s ROC curve was 0.79 (95% CI 0.71–0.88). Discussion Commercial air tour crash rates were high relative to similar commercial aviation operations. Disparities between Part 91 and 135 air tour crash rates reflect regulatory disparities that require FAA action. The FIA Score appeared to be a valid measurement of fatal risk in air tour crashes. The FIA should prioritize interventions that address the three major risk factors identified by this study. PMID:23631935

The Auckland Cataract Study: Assessing Preoperative Risk Stratification Systems for Phacoemulsification Surgery in a Teaching Hospital.

PubMed

Kim, Bia Z; Patel, Dipika V; Sherwin, Trevor; McGhee, Charles N J

2016-11-01

To evaluate 2 preoperative risk stratification systems for assessing the risk of complications in phacoemulsification cataract surgery, performed by residents, fellows, and attending physicians in a public teaching hospital. Cohort study. One observer assessed the clinical data of 500 consecutive cases, prior to phacoemulsification cataract surgery performed between April and June 2015 at Greenlane Clinical Centre, Auckland, New Zealand. Preoperatively 2 risk scores were calculated for each case using the Muhtaseb and Buckinghamshire risk stratification systems. Complications, intraoperative and postoperative, and visual outcomes were analyzed in relation to these risk scores. Intraoperative complication rates increased with higher risk scores using the Muhtaseb or Buckinghamshire stratification system (P = .001 and P = .003, respectively, n = 500). The odds ratios for residents and fellows were not significantly different from attending physicians after case-mix adjustment according to risk scores (P > .05). Postoperative complication rates increased with higher Buckinghamshire risk scores but not with Muhtaseb scores (P = .014 and P = .094, respectively, n = 476). Postoperative corrected-distance visual acuity was poorer with higher risk scores (P < .001 for both, n = 476). This study confirms that the risk of intraoperative complications increases with higher preoperative risk scores. Furthermore, higher risk scores correlate with poorer postoperative visual acuity and the Buckinghamshire risk score also correlates with postoperative complications. Therefore, preoperative assessment using such risk stratification systems could assist individual informed consent, preoperative surgical planning, safe allocation of cases to trainees, and more meaningful analyses of outcomes for individual surgeons and institutions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multisystemic Therapy and Functional Family Therapy Compared on their Effectiveness Using the Propensity Score Method.

PubMed

Eeren, Hester V; Goossens, Lucas M A; Scholte, Ron H J; Busschbach, Jan J V; van der Rijken, Rachel E A

2018-01-09

Multisystemic Therapy (MST) and Functional Family Therapy (FFT) have overlapping target populations and treatment goals. In this study, these interventions were compared on their effectiveness using a quasi-experimental design. Between October, 2009 and June, 2014, outcome data were collected from 697 adolescents (mean age 15.3 (SD 1.48), 61.9% male) assigned to either MST or FFT (422 MST; 275 FFT). Data were gathered during Routine Outcome Monitoring. The primary outcome was externalizing problem behavior (Child Behavior Checklist and Youth Self Report). Secondary outcomes were the proportion of adolescents living at home, engaged in school or work, and who lacked police contact during treatment. Because of the non-random assignment, a propensity score method was used to control for observed pre-treatment differences. Because the risk-need-responsivity (RNR) model guided treatment assignment, effectiveness was also estimated in youth with and without a court order as an indicator of their risk level. Looking at the whole sample, no difference in effect was found with regard to externalizing problems. For adolescents without a court order, effects on externalizing problems were larger after MST. Because many more adolescents with a court order were assigned to MST compared to FFT, the propensity score method could not balance the treatment groups in this subsample. In conclusion, few differences between MST and FFT were found. In line with the RNR model, higher risk adolescents were assigned to the more intensive treatment, namely MST. In the group with lower risk adolescents, this more intensive treatment was more effective in reducing externalizing problems.

A NOVEL SCORING SYSTEM: PREDICTING SEPTIC SHOCK AT DIAGNOSIS EASILY IN ACUTE COMPLICATED PYELONEPHRITIS PATIENTS.

PubMed

Kubota, Masashi; Kanno, Toru; Nishiyama, Ryuichi; Okada, Takashi; Higashi, Yoshihito; Yamada, Hitoshi

2016-01-01

(Objectives) Because acute complicated pyelonephritis can easily cause sepsis and concomitant shock status, it is a potentially lethal disease. However, the predictors for the severity of pyelonephritis is not well analyzed. In this study, we aimed at clarifying the clinical characteristic risk factors associated with septic shock in patients with acute complicated pyelonephritis. (Materials and methods) From May 2009 to March 2014, 267 patients with acute complicated pyelonephritis were treated at our institution. We investigated the characteristics of the patients associated with septic shock, and assessed risk factors in these patients. By using these risk factors, we established a novel scoring system to predict septic shock. (Results) 267 patients included 145 patients with ureteral calculi and 75 patients with stent-related pyelonephritis. Septic shock occurred in 35 patients (13%), and the mortality rate was 0.75%. Multivariate analysis revealed that (P): Performance Status ≥3 (p=0.0014), (U): Presence of Ureteral calculi (p=0.043), (S): Sex of female (p=0.023), and (H): the presence of Hydronephrosis (p=0.039) were independent risk factors for septic shock. P.U.S.H. scoring system (range 0-4), which consists of these 4 factors, were positively correlated with the rate of septic shock (score 0: 0%, 1: 5.3%, 2: 3.4%, 3: 25.0%, 4: 42.3%). Importantly, patients with 3-4 P.U.S.H. scores were statistically more likely to become septic shock than those with 0-2 score (p=0.00014). (Conclusions) These results suggest that P.U.S.H. scoring system using 4 clinical factors is useful to predict the status of septic shock in patients with acute complicated pyelonephritis.

Soccer Injury Movement Screen (SIMS) Composite Score Is Not Associated With Injury Among Semi-Professional Soccer Players.

PubMed

McCunn, Robert; Fünten, Karen Aus der; Whalan, Matthew; Sampson, John A; Meyer, Tim

2018-05-08

Study Design Prospective cohort. Background The association between movement quality and injury is equivocal. No soccer-specific movement assessment has been prospectively investigated in relation to injury risk. Objectives To investigate the association between a soccer-specific movement quality assessment and injury risk among semi-professional soccer players. Methods Semi-professional soccer players (n=306) from 12 clubs completed the Soccer Injury Movement Screen (SIMS) during the pre-season period. Individual training/match exposure and non-contact time loss injuries were recorded prospectively for the entirety of the 2016 season. Relative risks (RR) were calculated, and presented with 90% confidence intervals (CI), for the SIMS composite and individual sub-test scores from generalized linear models with Poisson distribution offset for exposure. Results When considering non-contact time loss lower extremity injuries (primary level of analysis), there was a most likely trivial association with the SIMS composite score. Similarly, SIMS composite score demonstrated most likely to likely trivial associations to all injury categories included in the secondary level of analysis (non-contact time loss hip/groin, thigh, knee and ankle injuries). When considering hamstring strains and ankle sprains specifically (tertiary level of analysis) the SIMS composite score, again, demonstrated very likely trivial associations. A total of 262 non-contact time loss injuries were recorded. The overall (training and match exposure combined) incidence of non-contact time loss injury was 12/1000 hours. Conclusion The SIMS composite score demonstrated no association to any of the investigated categories of soccer-related injury. The SIMS composite score should not be used to group players into 'high' or 'low' risk groups. Level of Evidence Prognosis, level 4. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther, Epub 8 May 2018. doi:10.2519/jospt.2018.8037.

Missed Opportunity for Alcohol Problem Prevention Among Army Active Duty Service Members Postdeployment

PubMed Central

Mohr, Beth A.; Adams, Rachel Sayko; Wooten, Nikki R.; Williams, Thomas V.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We identified to what extent the Department of Defense postdeployment health surveillance program identifies at-risk drinking, alone or in conjunction with psychological comorbidities, and refers service members who screen positive for additional assessment or care. Methods. We completed a cross-sectional analysis of 333 803 US Army active duty members returning from Iraq or Afghanistan deployments in fiscal years 2008 to 2011 with a postdeployment health assessment. Alcohol measures included 2 based on self-report quantity-frequency items—at-risk drinking (positive Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test alcohol consumption questions [AUDIT-C] screen) and severe alcohol problems (AUDIT-C score of 8 or higher)—and another based on the interviewing provider’s assessment. Results. Nearly 29% of US Army active duty members screened positive for at-risk drinking, and 5.6% had an AUDIT-C score of 8 or higher. Interviewing providers identified potential alcohol problems among only 61.8% of those screening positive for at-risk drinking and only 74.9% of those with AUDIT-C scores of 8 or higher. They referred for a follow-up visit to primary care or another setting only 29.2% of at-risk drinkers and only 35.9% of those with AUDIT-C scores of 8 or higher. Conclusions. This study identified missed opportunities for early intervention for at-risk drinking. Future research should evaluate the effect of early intervention on long-term outcomes. PMID:24922163

Novel Risk Stratification Score for Predicting Early Distant Brain Failure and Salvage Whole Brain Radiotherapy after Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Brain Metastases

PubMed Central

Press, Robert H.; Prabhu, Roshan S.; Nickleach, Dana C.; Liu, Yuan; Shu, Hui-Kuo G.; Kandula, Shravan; Patel, Kirtesh R.; Curran, Walter J.; Crocker, Ian

2015-01-01

Background The purpose of this study was to evaluate predictors of early distant brain failure (DBF) and salvage whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) after treatment with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases and create a clinically relevant risk score in order to stratify patients’ risk of these events. Methods We reviewed records of 270 patients with brain metastases treated with SRS between 2003-2012. Pre-treatment patient and tumor characteristics were analyzed by univariate and multivariable analyses. Cumulative incidence (CI) of first DBF and salvage WBRT were calculated. Significant factors were used to create a score for stratifying early (6-month) DBF risk. Results No prior WBRT, total lesion volume <1.3 cm3, primary breast cancer or malignant melanoma histology, and multiple metastases (≥2) were found to be significant predictors for early DBF. Each factor was ascribed one point due to similar hazard ratios. Scores of 0-1, 2, and 3-4 were considered low, intermediate, and high risk, respectively. This correlated with 6-month CI of DBF of 16.6%, 28.8%, and 54.4%, respectively (p<0.001). For patients without prior WBRT, the 6-month CI of salvage WBRT by 6-months was 2%, 17.7%, and 25.7%, respectively (p<0.001). Conclusion Early DBF after SRS requiring salvage WBRT remains a significant clinical problem. Patient stratification for early DBF can better inform the decision for initial treatment strategy for brain metastases. The provided risk score may help predict for early DBF and subsequent salvage WBRT if initial SRS is used. External validation is needed prior to clinical implementation. PMID:26242475

Serum neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin levels are correlated with the complexity and the severity of atherosclerosis in acute coronary syndrome

PubMed Central

Soylu, Korhan; Aksan, Gökhan; Nar, Gökay; Özdemir, Metin; Gülel, Okan; İnci, Sinan; Aksakal, Aytekin; İdil Soylu, Ayşegül; Yılmaz, Özcan

2015-01-01

Objective: Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is a novel inflammatory marker that is released from neutrophils. In this study, we evaluated the correlation between serum NGAL level and clinical and angiographic risk scores in patients diagnosed with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). Methods: Forty-seven random NSTE-ACS patients and 45 patients with normal coronary arteries (NCA) who underwent coronary angiography were enrolled in the study. GRACE risk score and SYNTAX and Gensini risk scores were used, respectively, for the purpose of clinical risk assessment and angiographic risk scoring. Serum NGAL level was measured via ELISA in peripheral blood samples obtained from the patients at the time of admission. Results: Serum NGAL level was significantly higher in the NSTE-ACS group compared to the control group (112.3±49.6 ng/mL vs. 58.1±24.3 ng/mL, p<0.001). There was a significant positive correlation between serum NGAL levels and the GRACE (r=0.533 and p<0.001), SYNTAX (r=0.395 and p=0.006), and Gensini risk scores (r=0.575 and p<0.001). The intermediate-high SYNTAX (>22) group had statistically significantly higher serum NGAL levels compared to the low SYNTAX (≤22) group (143±29.5 ng/mL vs. 98.7±43.2 ng/mL, p=0.001). Conclusion: NGAL level was positively correlated with lesion complexity and severity of coronary artery disease in patients with NSTE-ACS. Serum NGAL levels on admission are associated with increased burden of atherosclerosis in patients with NSTE-ACS. PMID:25430410

Cardiovascular Risk Factor Burden in Veterans and Non-Veterans with Parkinson Disease

PubMed Central

Kotagal, Vikas; Albin, Roger L.; Müller, Martijn L.T.M; Bohnen, Nicolaas I.

2018-01-01

Background Medical comorbidities, including cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension and diabetes, influence disease progression in Parkinson disease (PD) and may be variably present in different clinical populations. Objective/Methods We conducted a retrospective nested case-control study of 29 Veterans with PD and 29 non-Veteran PD controls. The groups were matched for age, gender, and disease duration. Both groups underwent clinical and imaging testing as part of their participation in a larger cross-sectional PD observational study at our research center. Veterans were recruited primarily from movement disorders neurology clinics at the Ann Arbor Veterans Affairs (VA) Health System. Non-Veterans were recruited primarily from analogous clinics at the University of Michigan Health System. We explored differences in cardiovascular risks factor burden between the groups. Results Veterans with PD showed higher scores on the simplified Framingham 10-year general cardiovascular disease risk calculator (FR score; 27.3% (11.5) vs. 20.7% (6.8); t = −2.66, p = 0.011) and fewer years of self-reported education (14.5 (2.5) vs. 16.7 (2.6); t = 3.33, p = 0.002). After adjusting for age, disease duration, education, and the use of antihypertensive medications, Veterans showed higher FR scores (t = 2.95, p = 0.005) and a higher intra-subject ratio of FR score to age-and-gender normalized FR score (t = 2.49, p = 0.016), representing an elevated component of modifiable cardiovascular risk factor burden. Conclusion Cardiovascular comorbidities are common in Veterans with PD and may be more severe than in non-Veteran PD populations. These findings merit replication in other representative cohorts. Veterans may be a preferred population for clinical trials evaluating cardiovascular risk factor management on PD progression. PMID:29480230

Reproductive health knowledge among African American women enrolled in a clinic-based randomized controlled trial to reduce psychosocial and behavioral risk, Project DC-HOPE

PubMed Central

Backonja, Uba; Robledo, Candace A.; Wallace, Maeve E.; Flores, Katrina F.; Kiely, Michele

2016-01-01

Background Washington, D.C. has among the highest rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and unintended pregnancy in the United States. Increasing women’s reproductive health knowledge may help address these reproductive health issues. This analysis assessed whether high-risk pregnant African American women in Washington, D.C. who participated in an intervention to reduce behavioral and psychosocial risks had greater reproductive health knowledge than women receiving usual care. Methods Project DC-HOPE was a randomized controlled trial that included pregnant African American women in Washington, D.C., recruited during prenatal care. Women in the intervention group were provided reproductive health education and received tailored counseling sessions to address their psychosocial and behavioral risk(s) (cigarette smoking, environmental tobacco smoke exposure, depression, and intimate partner violence). Women in the control group received usual prenatal care. Participants completed a 10-item reproductive knowledge assessment at baseline (n=1,044) and postpartum (n=830). Differences in total reproductive health knowledge scores at baseline and postpartum between groups were examined via chi-squared tests. Differences in postpartum mean total score by group were assessed via multiple linear regression. Results Women in both groups and at both time points scored approximately 50% on the knowledge assessments. At postpartum, women in the intervention group had higher total scores compared to women receiving usual care (mean 5.40 [SD 1.60] vs. 5.03 [SD 1.53] out of 10, respectively; p<0.001). Conclusions While intervention participants increased reproductive health knowledge, overall scores remained low. Development of interventions designed to impart accurate, individually tailored information to women may promote reproductive health knowledge among high-risk pregnant African American women residing in Washington, D.C. PMID:27094910

Composite protective lifestyle factors and risk of developing gastric adenocarcinoma: the Singapore Chinese Health Study.

PubMed

Wang, Zhensheng; Koh, Woon-Puay; Jin, Aizhen; Wang, Renwei; Yuan, Jian-Min

2017-02-28

Incidence of gastric cancer is the highest in Eastern Asia. Multiple modifiable lifestyle factors have been identified as risk factors for gastric cancer. However, their aggregated effect on the risk of gastric cancer has not been examined among populations with high prevalence of Helicobacter pylori. A study was conducted to examine the association between multiple lifestyle factors together and the risk of developing gastric adenocarcinoma in the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a prospective cohort of 63 257 men and women between 45 and 74 years enroled during 1993-1998. Composite score of cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, obesity, dietary pattern, and sodium intake at baseline was assessed with hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of gastric adenocarcinoma using Cox regression method. Higher healthy composite lifestyle scores were significantly associated with reduced risk of gastric adenocarcinoma in a dose-dependent manner. Hazard ratios (95% CIs) for total, cardia, and non-cardia gastric adenocarcinoma for the highest (score 5) vs lowest composite score (score 0/1/2) were 0.42 (0.31-0.57), 0.22 (0.10-0.47), and 0.55 (0.39-0.78), respectively (all P trend <0.001). These lifestyles together accounted for 48% of total gastric adenocarcinoma cases in the study population. The inverse association was observed in both genders, and remained after exclusion of first 5 years of follow-up. The inverse association between the aggregated healthy lifestyle factors and the risk of gastric adenocarcinoma is in dose-dependent manner in this highly H. pylori-exposed population. These lifestyle factors together may account for up to half of disease burden in this study population.

Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

PubMed

van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

2009-12-05

We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

18F Fluorocholine Dynamic Time-of-Flight PET/MR Imaging in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Intermediate- to High-Risk Prostate Cancer: Initial Clinical-Pathologic Comparisons.

PubMed

Choi, Joon Young; Yang, Jaewon; Noworolski, Susan M; Behr, Spencer; Chang, Albert J; Simko, Jeffry P; Nguyen, Hao G; Carroll, Peter R; Kurhanewicz, John; Seo, Youngho

2017-02-01

Purpose To investigate the initial clinical value of fluorine 18 ( 18 F) fluorocholine (FCH) dynamic positron emission tomography (PET)/magnetic resonance (MR) imaging by comparing its parameters with clinical-pathologic findings in patients with newly diagnosed intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) who plan to undergo radical prostatectomy. Materials and Methods The institutional review board approved the study protocol, and informed written consent was obtained from all subjects for this HIPAA-compliant study. Twelve men (mean age ± standard deviation, 61.7 years ± 8.4; range, 46-74 years) with untreated intermediate- to high-risk PCa characterized according to Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) underwent preoperative FCH dynamic PET/MR imaging followed by radical prostatectomy between April and November 2015. PET/MR imaging parameters including average and maximum K1 (delivery rate constant) and standardized uptake values (SUVs) and Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) version 2 scores were measured and compared with clinical-pathologic characteristics. For statistical analysis, the Spearman rank correlation and Mann-Whitney U tests were performed. Results Of the PET parameters, maximum SUV of primary tumors showed significant correlations with several clinical-pathologic parameters including serum prostate-specific antigen level (ρ = 0.71, P = .01), pathologic stage (ρ = 0.59, P = .043), and postsurgical CAPRA score (ρ = 0.72, P = .008). The overall PI-RADS score showed significant correlations with pathologic tumor volume (ρ = 0.81, P < .001), percentage of tumor cells with Gleason scores greater than 3 (ρ = 0.59, P = .02), and postsurgical CAPRA score (ρ = 0.58, P = .046). The high-risk postsurgical CAPRA score patient group had a significantly higher maximum SUV than did the intermediate-risk group. Combined PET and MR imaging showed improved sensitivity (88%) for prediction of pathologic extraprostatic extension compared with that with MR imaging (50%) and PET (75%) performed separately. Conclusion Maximum SUVs and PI-RADS scores from FCH PET/MR imaging show good correlation with clinical-pathologic characteristics, such as postsurgical CAPRA score, which are related to prognosis in patients with newly diagnosed intermediate- to high-risk PCa. © RSNA, 2016 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

The Value of ABCD2F Scoring System (ABCD2 Combined with Atrial Fibrillation) to Predict 90-Day Recurrent Brain Stroke

PubMed Central

Almasi, Mostafa; Ghasemi, Faeze; Chardoli, Mojtaba

2016-01-01

Background. The ABCD2 score is now identified as a useful clinical prediction rule to determine the risk for stroke in the days following brain ischemic attacks. Aim. The present study aimed to introduce a new scoring system named “ABCD2F” and compare its value with the previous ABCD2 system to predict recurrent ischemic stroke within 90 days of the initial cerebrovascular accident (CVA). Methods. 138 consecutive patients with the final diagnosis of ischemic CVA or TIAs who referred to emergency ward of Rasoul-e-Akram general hospital in Tehran from September 2012 to December 2013 were eligible. By adding a new score in the presence of atrial fibrillation to ABCD2 system, the new scoring system as ABCD2F was introduced and the risk stratification was done again on this new system. Results. The area under the curve for ABCD2 was 0.434 and for ABCD2F it was 0.452 indicating low value of both systems for assessing recurrence of stroke within 90 days of primary event. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that none of the baseline factors could predict 90-day recurrent stroke. Conclusion. ABCD2 and/or atrial fibrillation are not good scoring candidates for assessing the risk of recurrent stroke within first 90 days. PMID:27642521

Optimizing Positioning for In-Office Otology Procedures.

PubMed

Govil, Nandini; DeMayo, William M; Hirsch, Barry E; McCall, Andrew A

2017-01-01

Objective Surgeons often report musculoskeletal discomfort in relation to their practice, but few understand optimal ergonomic positioning. This study aims to determine which patient position-sitting versus supine-is ergonomically optimal for performing otologic procedures. Study Design Observational study. Setting Outpatient otolaryngology clinic setting in a tertiary care facility. Subjects and Methods We observed 3 neurotologists performing a standardized simulated cerumen debridement procedure on volunteers in 2 positions: sitting and supine. The Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA)-a validated tool that calculates stress placed on the upper limb during a task-was used to evaluate ergonomic positioning. Scores on this instrument range from 1 to 7, with a score of 1 to 2 indicating negligible risk of developing posture-related injury. The risk of musculoskeletal disorders increases as the RULA score increases. Results In nearly every trial, RULA scores were lower when the simulated patient was placed in the supine position. When examined as a group, the median RULA scores were 5 with the patient sitting and 3 with the patient in the supine position ( P < .0001). When the RULA scores of the 3 neurotologists were examined individually, each had a statistically significant decrease in score with the patient in the supine position. Conclusion This study indicates that patient position may contribute to ergonomic stress placed on the otolaryngologist's upper limb during in-office otologic procedures. Otolaryngologists should consider performing otologic procedures with the patient in the supine position to decrease their own risk of developing upper-limb musculoskeletal disorders.

Genetic Susceptibility to Dental Caries on Pit and Fissure and Smooth Surfaces

PubMed Central

Shaffer, J.R.; Wang, X.; DeSensi, R.S.; Wendell, S.; Weyant, R.J.; Cuenco, K.T.; Crout, R.; McNeil, D.W.; Marazita, M.L.

2012-01-01

Carious lesions are distributed nonuniformly across tooth surfaces of the complete dentition, suggesting that the effects of risk factors may be surface-specific. Whether genes differentially affect caries risk across tooth surfaces is unknown. We investigated the role of genetics on two classes of tooth surfaces, pit and fissure surfaces (PFS) and smooth surfaces (SMS), in more than 2,600 subjects from 740 families. Participants were examined for surface-level evidence of dental caries, and caries scores for permanent and/or primary teeth were generated separately for PFS and SMS. Heritability estimates (h2, i.e. the proportion of trait variation due to genes) of PFS and SMS caries scores were obtained using likelihood methods. The genetic correlations between PFS and SMS caries scores were calculated to assess the degree to which traits covary due to common genetic effects. Overall, the heritability of caries scores was similar for PFS (h2 = 19–53%; p < 0.001) and SMS (h2 = 17–42%; p < 0.001). Heritability of caries scores for both PFS and SMS in the primary dentition was greater than in the permanent dentition and total dentition. With one exception, the genetic correlation between PFS and SMS caries scores was not significantly different from 100%, indicating that (mostly) common genes are involved in the risk of caries for both surface types. Genetic correlation for the primary dentition dfs (decay + filled surfaces) was significantly less than 100% (p < 0.001), indicating that genetic factors may exert differential effects on caries risk in PFS versus SMS in the primary dentition. PMID:22286298

Practical, transparent prospective risk analysis for the clinical laboratory.

PubMed

Janssens, Pim Mw

2014-11-01

Prospective risk analysis (PRA) is an essential element in quality assurance for clinical laboratories. Practical approaches to conducting PRA in laboratories, however, are scarce. On the basis of the classical Failure Mode and Effect Analysis method, an approach to PRA was developed for application to key laboratory processes. First, the separate, major steps of the process under investigation are identified. Scores are then given for the Probability (P) and Consequence (C) of predefined types of failures and the chances of Detecting (D) these failures. Based on the P and C scores (on a 10-point scale), an overall Risk score (R) is calculated. The scores for each process were recorded in a matrix table. Based on predetermined criteria for R and D, it was determined whether a more detailed analysis was required for potential failures and, ultimately, where risk-reducing measures were necessary, if any. As an illustration, this paper presents the results of the application of PRA to our pre-analytical and analytical activities. The highest R scores were obtained in the stat processes, the most common failure type in the collective process steps was 'delayed processing or analysis', the failure type with the highest mean R score was 'inappropriate analysis' and the failure type most frequently rated as suboptimal was 'identification error'. The PRA designed is a useful semi-objective tool to identify process steps with potential failures rated as risky. Its systematic design and convenient output in matrix tables makes it easy to perform, practical and transparent. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

The predictive ability of the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation: the MAQI(2) experience.

PubMed

Barnes, Geoffrey D; Gu, Xiaokui; Haymart, Brian; Kline-Rogers, Eva; Almany, Steve; Kozlowski, Jay; Besley, Dennis; Krol, Gregory D; Froehlich, James B; Kaatz, Scott

2014-08-01

Guidelines recommend the assessment of stroke and bleeding risk before initiating warfarin anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation. Many of the elements used to predict stroke also overlap with bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation patients and it is tempting to use stroke risk scores to efficiently estimate bleeding risk. Comparison of stroke risk scores to bleeding risk scores to predict bleeding has not been thoroughly assessed. 2600 patients followed at seven anticoagulation clinics were followed from October 2009-May 2013. Five risk models (CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED and ATRIA) were retrospectively applied to each patient. The primary outcome was the first major bleeding event. Area under the ROC curves were compared with C statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis was performed. 110 patients experienced a major bleeding event in 2581.6 patient-years (4.5%/year). Mean follow up was 1.0±0.8years. All of the formal bleeding risk scores had a modest predictive value for first major bleeding events (C statistic 0.66-0.69), performing better than CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores (C statistic difference 0.10 - 0.16). NRI analysis demonstrated a 52-69% and 47-64% improvement of the formal bleeding risk scores over the CHADS2 score and CHA2DS2-VASc score, respectively. The CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores did not perform as well as formal bleeding risk scores for prediction of major bleeding in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients treated with warfarin. All three bleeding risk scores (HAS-BLED, ATRIA and HEMORR2HAGES) performed moderately well. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trade-based carbon sequestration accounting.

PubMed

King, Dennis M

2004-04-01

This article describes and illustrates an accounting method to assess and compare "early" carbon sequestration investments and trades on the basis of the number of standardized CO2 emission offset credits they will provide. The "gold standard" for such credits is assumed to be a relatively riskless credit based on a CO2 emission reduction that provides offsets against CO2 emissions on a one-for-one basis. The number of credits associated with carbon sequestration needs to account for time, risk, durability, permanence, additionality, and other factors that future trade regulators will most certainly use to assign "official" credits to sequestration projects. The method that is presented here uses established principles of natural resource accounting and conventional rules of asset valuation to "score" projects. A review of 20 "early" voluntary United States based CO2 offset trades that involve carbon sequestration reveals that the assumptions that buyers, sellers, brokers, and traders are using to characterize the economic potential of their investments and trades vary enormously. The article develops a "universal carbon sequestration credit scoring equation" and uses two of these trades to illustrate the sensitivity of trade outcomes to various assumptions about how future trade auditors are likely to "score" carbon sequestration projects in terms of their "equivalency" with CO2 emission reductions. The article emphasizes the importance of using a standard credit scoring method that accounts for time and risk to assess and compare even unofficial prototype carbon sequestration trades. The scoring method illustrated in this article is a tool that can protect the integrity of carbon sequestration credit trading and can assist buyers and sellers in evaluating the real economic potential of prospective trades.

Low Openness on the Revised NEO Personality Inventory as a Risk Factor for Treatment-Resistant Depression

PubMed Central

Takahashi, Michio; Shirayama, Yukihiko; Muneoka, Katsumasa; Suzuki, Masatoshi; Sato, Koichi; Hashimoto, Kenji

2013-01-01

Background Recently, we reported that low reward dependence, and to a lesser extent, low cooperativeness in the Temperature and Character Inventory (TCI) may be risk factors for treatment-resistant depression. Here, we analyzed additional psychological traits in these patients. Methods We administered Costa and McCrae's five-factor model personality inventory, NEO Personality Inventory-Revised (NEO-PI-R), to antidepressant-treatment resistant depressed patients (n = 35), remitted depressed patients (n = 27), and healthy controls (n = 66). We also evaluated the relationships between scores on NEO and TCI, using the same cohort of patients with treatment-resistant depression, as our previous study. Results Patients with treatment-resistant depression showed high scores for neuroticism, low scores for extraversion, openness and conscientiousness, without changes in agreeableness, on the NEO. However, patients in remitted depression showed no significant scores on NEO. Patients with treatment-resistant depression and low openness on NEO showed positive relationships with reward dependence and cooperativeness on the TCI. Conclusions Many studies have reported that depressed patients show high neuroticism, low extraversion and low conscientiousness on the NEO. Our study highlights low openness on the NEO, as a risk mediator in treatment-resistant depression. This newly identified trait should be included as a risk factor in treatment-resistant depression. PMID:24019864

Integrating Genetics and Social Science: Genetic Risk Scores

PubMed Central

Belsky, Daniel W.; Israel, Salomon

2014-01-01

The sequencing of the human genome and the advent of low-cost genome-wide assays that generate millions of observations of individual genomes in a matter of hours constitute a disruptive innovation for social science. Many public-use social science datasets have or will soon add genome-wide genetic data. With these new data come technical challenges, but also new possibilities. Among these, the lowest hanging fruit and the most potentially disruptive to existing research programs is the ability to measure previously invisible contours of health and disease risk within populations. In this article, we outline why now is the time for social scientists to bring genetics into their research programs. We discuss how to select genetic variants to study. We explain how the polygenic architecture of complex traits and the low penetrance of individual genetic loci pose challenges to research integrating genetics and social science. We introduce genetic risk scores as a method of addressing these challenges and provide guidance on how genetic risk scores can be constructed. We conclude by outlining research questions that are ripe for social science inquiry. PMID:25343363

Measurement of ECG abnormalities and cardiovascular risk classification: a cohort study of primary care patients in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

Groot, Anne; Bots, Michiel L; Rutten, Frans H; den Ruijter, Hester M; Numans, Mattijs E; Vaartjes, Ilonca

2015-01-01

Background GPs need accurate tools for cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment. Abnormalities in resting electrocardiograms (ECGs) relate to increased CV risk. Aim To determine whether measurement of ECG abnormalities on top of established risk estimation (SCORE) improves CV risk classification in a primary care population. Design and setting A cohort study of patients enlisted with academic general practices in the Netherlands (the Utrecht Health Project [UHP]). Method Incident CV events were extracted from the GP records. MEANS algorithm was used to assess ECG abnormalities. Cox proportional hazards modelling was applied to relate ECG abnormalities to CV events. For a prediction model only with SCORE variables, and a model with SCORE+ECG abnormalities, the discriminative value (area under the receiver operator curve [AUC]) and the net reclassification improvement (NRI) were estimated. Results A total of 2370 participants aged 38–74 years were included, all eligible for CV risk assessment. During a mean follow-up of 7.8 years, 172 CV events occurred. In 19% of the participants at least one ECG abnormality was found (Lausanne criteria). Presence of atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) and myocardial infarction (MI) were significantly related to CV events. The AUC of the SCORE risk factors was 0.75 (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.79). Addition of MI or AF resulted in an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI = 0.72 to 0.79) and 0.75 (95% CI = 0.72 to 0.79), respectively. The NRI with the addition of ECG abnormalities was small (MI 1.0%; 95% CI = −3.2% to 6.9%; AF 0.5%; 95% CI = −3.5% to 3.3%). Conclusion Performing a resting ECG in a primary care population does not seem to improve risk classification when SCORE information — age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol/HDL ratio — is already available. PMID:25548311

Traditional and Emerging Lifestyle Risk Behaviors and All-Cause Mortality in Middle-Aged and Older Adults: Evidence from a Large Population-Based Australian Cohort

PubMed Central

Ding, Ding; Rogers, Kris; van der Ploeg, Hidde; Stamatakis, Emmanuel; Bauman, Adrian E.

2015-01-01

Background Lifestyle risk behaviors are responsible for a large proportion of disease burden worldwide. Behavioral risk factors, such as smoking, poor diet, and physical inactivity, tend to cluster within populations and may have synergistic effects on health. As evidence continues to accumulate on emerging lifestyle risk factors, such as prolonged sitting and unhealthy sleep patterns, incorporating these new risk factors will provide clinically relevant information on combinations of lifestyle risk factors. Methods and Findings Using data from a large Australian cohort of middle-aged and older adults, this is the first study to our knowledge to examine a lifestyle risk index incorporating sedentary behavior and sleep in relation to all-cause mortality. Baseline data (February 2006– April 2009) were linked to mortality registration data until June 15, 2014. Smoking, high alcohol intake, poor diet, physical inactivity, prolonged sitting, and unhealthy (short/long) sleep duration were measured by questionnaires and summed into an index score. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used with the index score and each unique risk combination as exposure variables, adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics. During 6 y of follow-up of 231,048 participants for 1,409,591 person-years, 15,635 deaths were registered. Of all participants, 31.2%, 36.9%, 21.4%, and 10.6% reported 0, 1, 2, and 3+ risk factors, respectively. There was a strong relationship between the lifestyle risk index score and all-cause mortality. The index score had good predictive validity (c index = 0.763), and the partial population attributable risk was 31.3%. Out of all 96 possible risk combinations, the 30 most commonly occurring combinations accounted for more than 90% of the participants. Among those, combinations involving physical inactivity, prolonged sitting, and/or long sleep duration and combinations involving smoking and high alcohol intake had the strongest associations with all-cause mortality. Limitations of the study include self-reported and under-specified measures, dichotomized risk scores, lack of long-term patterns of lifestyle behaviors, and lack of cause-specific mortality data. Conclusions Adherence to healthy lifestyle behaviors could reduce the risk for death from all causes. Specific combinations of lifestyle risk behaviors may be more harmful than others, suggesting synergistic relationships among risk factors. PMID:26645683

The New York risk score for in-hospital and 30-day mortality for coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

PubMed

Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Wechsler, Andrew; Jordan, Desmond; Lahey, Stephen J; Culliford, Alfred T; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R

2013-01-01

Simplified risk scores for coronary artery bypass graft surgery are frequently in lieu of more complicated statistical models and are valuable for informed consent and choice of intervention. Previous risk scores have been based on in-hospital mortality, but a substantial number of patients die within 30 days of the procedure. These deaths should also be accounted for, so we have developed a risk score based on in-hospital and 30-day mortality. New York's Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital and 30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery in 2009, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that provides estimated in-hospital and 30-day mortality rates for different values of the score. The accuracy of the risk score in predicting mortality was tested. This score was also validated by applying it to 2008 New York coronary artery bypass graft data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the risk score to predict complications and length of stay. The overall in-hospital and 30-day mortality rate for the 10,148 patients in the study was 1.79%. There are seven risk factors comprising the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 5, and the highest possible total score is 23. The score accurately predicted mortality in 2009 as well as in 2008, and was strongly correlated with complications and length of stay. The risk score is a simple way of estimating short-term mortality that accurately predicts mortality in the year the model was developed as well as in the previous year. Perioperative complications and length of stay are also well predicted by the risk score. Copyright © 2013 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance of the disease risk score in a cohort study with policy-induced selection bias.

PubMed

Tadrous, Mina; Mamdani, Muhammad M; Juurlink, David N; Krahn, Murray D; Lévesque, Linda E; Cadarette, Suzanne M

2015-11-01

To examine the performance of the disease risk score (DRS) in a cohort study with evidence of policy-induced selection bias. We examined two cohorts of new users of bisphosphonates. Estimates for 1-year hip fracture rates between agents using DRS, exposure propensity scores and traditional multivariable analysis were compared. The results for the cohort with no evidence of policy-induced selection bias showed little variation across analyses (-4.1-2.0%). Analysis of the cohort with evidence of policy-induced selection bias showed greater variation (-13.5-8.1%), with the greatest difference seen with DRS analyses. Our findings suggest that caution may be warranted when using DRS methods in cohort studies with policy-induced selection bias, further research is needed.

Age at natural menopause genetic risk score in relation to age at natural menopause and primary open-angle glaucoma in a US-based sample.

PubMed

Pasquale, Louis R; Aschard, Hugues; Kang, Jae H; Bailey, Jessica N Cooke; Lindström, Sara; Chasman, Daniel I; Christen, William G; Allingham, R Rand; Ashley-Koch, Allison; Lee, Richard K; Moroi, Sayoko E; Brilliant, Murray H; Wollstein, Gadi; Schuman, Joel S; Fingert, John; Budenz, Donald L; Realini, Tony; Gaasterland, Terry; Gaasterland, Douglas; Scott, William K; Singh, Kuldev; Sit, Arthur J; Igo, Robert P; Song, Yeunjoo E; Hark, Lisa; Ritch, Robert; Rhee, Douglas J; Gulati, Vikas; Havens, Shane; Vollrath, Douglas; Zack, Donald J; Medeiros, Felipe; Weinreb, Robert N; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A; Liu, Yutao; Kraft, Peter; Richards, Julia E; Rosner, Bernard A; Hauser, Michael A; Haines, Jonathan L; Wiggs, Janey L

2017-02-01

Several attributes of female reproductive history, including age at natural menopause (ANM), have been related to primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). We assembled 18 previously reported common genetic variants that predict ANM to determine their association with ANM or POAG. Using data from the Nurses' Health Study (7,143 women), we validated the ANM weighted genetic risk score in relation to self-reported ANM. Subsequently, to assess the relation with POAG, we used data from 2,160 female POAG cases and 29,110 controls in the National Eye Institute Glaucoma Human Genetics Collaboration Heritable Overall Operational Database (NEIGHBORHOOD), which consists of 8 datasets with imputed genotypes to 5.6+ million markers. Associations with POAG were assessed in each dataset, and site-specific results were meta-analyzed using the inverse weighted variance method. The genetic risk score was associated with self-reported ANM (P = 2.2 × 10) and predicted 4.8% of the variance in ANM. The ANM genetic risk score was not associated with POAG (Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.002; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.998, 1.007; P = 0.28). No single genetic variant in the panel achieved nominal association with POAG (P ≥0.20). Compared to the middle 80 percent, there was also no association with the lowest 10 percentile or highest 90 percentile of genetic risk score with POAG (OR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.47, 1.21; P = 0.23 and OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 0.72, 1.69; P = 0.65, respectively). A genetic risk score predicting 4.8% of ANM variation was not related to POAG; thus, genetic determinants of ANM are unlikely to explain the previously reported association between the two phenotypes.

The development and validation of a carer questionnaire to assess cognitive function in neuropsychiatric patients.

PubMed

Randhawa, Sharan; Walterfang, Mark; Miller, Kathryn; Scholes, Amelia; Mocellin, Ramon; Velakoulis, Dennis

2007-07-01

The carer history is an integral part of the assessment of patients with cognitive impairment. We aimed to develop a comprehensive yet concise carer questionnaire, the CogRisk, which captures actuarial risk variables for cognitive impairment in addition to key symptoms suggestive of cognitive decline in a number of cognitive domains, and to then assess its validity and reliability in a neuropsychiatric population. Carers of patients assessed for cognitive impairment completed the CogRisk, and patients were clinically assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Neuropsychiatry Unit COGnitive assessment tool (NUCOG). Reliability was assessed using test-retest and interrater measures and measures of internal consistency. Construct and concurrent validity was assessed using correlation between total and subscale scores on the CogRisk, total scores on the NUCOG and MMSE, and subscale scores on the NUCOG. Predictive validity was determined using measures of sensitivity and specificity and using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) methods. The CogRisk was completed by all carers in less than 10 min. The total CogRisk score correlated significantly with total MMSE and NUCOG scores (r=-0.511 and -0.563, respectively) and remained highly significant when age and education were controlled for. Internal consistency of CogRisk items was high (alpha=0.943). Intrarater reliability of the CogRisk was high with an intraclass correlation coefficient of .978 (P<.001), and interrater reliability between carers was also high at 0.868 (P<.05). Sensitivity and specificity for the detection of dementia were .70 and .73, respectively, with area under the ROC curve not significantly different from that of the MMSE or NUCOG. The CogRisk is a brief carer-rated tool of a patient's cognitive functioning developed for use within a neuropsychiatric setting. It exhibited good concurrent validity, internal consistency, and interrater and intrarater reliability. The CogRisk also demonstrated good sensitivity and specificity for dementia. The CogRisk provides carer information, which complements the clinical assessment and can be used to focus on direct carer interview.

Does the Aristotle Score predict outcome in congenital heart surgery?

PubMed

Kang, Nicholas; Tsang, Victor T; Elliott, Martin J; de Leval, Marc R; Cole, Timothy J

2006-06-01

The Aristotle Score has been proposed as a measure of 'complexity' in congenital heart surgery, and a tool for comparing performance amongst different centres. To date, however, it remains unvalidated. We examined whether the Basic Aristotle Score was a useful predictor of mortality following open-heart surgery, and compared it to the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) system. We also examined the ability of the Aristotle Score to measure performance. The Basic Aristotle Score and RACHS-1 risk categories were assigned retrospectively to 1085 operations involving cardiopulmonary bypass in children less than 18 years of age. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine the significance of the Aristotle Score and RACHS-1 category as independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Operative performance was calculated using the Aristotle equation: performance = complexity x survival. Multiple logistic regression identified RACHS-1 category to be a powerful predictor of mortality (Wald 17.7, p < 0.0001), whereas Aristotle Score was only weakly associated with mortality (Wald 4.8, p = 0.03). Age at operation and bypass time were also highly significant predictors of postoperative death (Wald 13.7 and 33.8, respectively, p < 0.0001 for both). Operative performance was measured at 7.52 units. The Basic Aristotle Score was only weakly associated with postoperative mortality in this series. Operative performance appeared to be inflated by the fact that the overall complexity of cases was relatively high in this series. An alternative equation (performance = complexity/mortality) is proposed as a fairer and more logical method of risk-adjustment.

What Analytic Method Should Clinicians Use to Derive Spine T-scores and Predict Incident Fractures in Men? Results from the MrOS study

PubMed Central

Hansen, Karen E; Blank, Robert D; Palermo, Lisa; Fink, Howard A; Orwoll, Eric S

2014-01-01

Summary In this study, the area under the curve was highest when using the lowest vertebral body T-score to diagnose osteoporosis. In men for whom hip imaging is not possible, the lowest vertebral body T-score improves ability to diagnose osteoporosis in men who are likely to have an incident fragility fracture. Purpose Spine T-scores have limited ability to predict fragility fracture. We hypothesized that using lowest vertebral body T-score to diagnose osteoporosis would better predict fracture. Methods Among men enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study, we identified cases with incident clinical fracture (n=484) and controls without fracture (n=1,516). We analyzed the lumbar spine BMD in cases and controls (n=2,000) to record the L1-L4 (referent), the lowest vertebral body and ISCD-determined T-scores using a male normative database, and the L1-L4 T-score using a female normative database. We compared the ability of method to diagnose osteoporosis and therefore predict incident clinical fragility fracture, using area under the receiver operator curves (AUC) and the net reclassification index (NCI) as measures of diagnostic accuracy. ISCD-determined T-scores were determined in only 60% of participants (n=1205). Results Among 1,205 men, the AUC to predict incident clinical fracture was 0.546 for L1-L4 male, 0.542 for the L1-L4 female, 0.585 for lowest vertebral body and 0.559 for ISCD-determined T-score. The lowest vertebral body AUC was the only method significantly different from the referent method (p=0.002). Likewise, a diagnosis of osteoporosis based on the lowest vertebral body T-score demonstrated a significantly better NRI than the referent method (net NRI +0.077, p=0.005). By contrast, the net NRI for other methods of analysis did not differ from the referent method. Conclusion Our study suggests that in men, the lowest vertebral body T-score is an acceptable method by which to estimate fracture risk. PMID:24850381

Radiation Dose and Cancer Risk Estimates in 16-Slice Computed Tomography Coronary Angiography

PubMed Central

Einstein, Andrew J.; Sanz, Javier; Dellegrottaglie, Santo; Milite, Margherita; Sirol, Marc; Henzlova, Milena; Rajagopalan, Sanjay

2008-01-01

Background Recent advances have led to a rapid increase in the number of computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) studies performed. While several studies have reported effective dose (E), there is no data available on cancer risk for current CTCA protocols. Methods and Results E and organ doses were estimated, using scanner-derived parameters and Monte Carlo methods, for 50 patients having 16-slice CTCA performed for clinical indications. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) were estimated with models developed in the National Academies’ Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report. E of a complete CTCA averaged 9.5 mSv, while that of a complete study, including calcium scoring when indicated, averaged 11.7 mSv. Calcium scoring increased E by 25%, while tube current modulation reduced it by 34% and was more effective at lower heart rates. Organ doses were highest to the lungs and female breast. LAR of cancer incidence from CTCA averaged approximately 1 in 1600, but varied widely between patients, being highest in younger women. For all patients, the greatest risk was from lung cancer. Conclusions CTCA is associated with non-negligible risk of malignancy. Doses can be reduced by careful attention to scanning protocol. PMID:18371595

Emerging Technologies for Environmental Remediation: Integrating Data and Judgment.

PubMed

Bates, Matthew E; Grieger, Khara D; Trump, Benjamin D; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Plourde, Kenton J; Linkov, Igor

2016-01-05

Emerging technologies present significant challenges to researchers, decision-makers, industry professionals, and other stakeholder groups due to the lack of quantitative risk, benefit, and cost data associated with their use. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can support early decisions for emerging technologies when data is too sparse or uncertain for traditional risk assessment. It does this by integrating expert judgment with available quantitative and qualitative inputs across multiple criteria to provide relative technology scores. Here, an MCDA framework provides preliminary insights on the suitability of emerging technologies for environmental remediation by comparing nanotechnology and synthetic biology to conventional remediation methods. Subject matter experts provided judgments regarding the importance of criteria used in the evaluations and scored the technologies with respect to those criteria. The results indicate that synthetic biology may be preferred over nanotechnology and conventional methods for high expected benefits and low deployment costs but that conventional technology may be preferred over emerging technologies for reduced risks and development costs. In the absence of field data regarding the risks, benefits, and costs of emerging technologies, structuring evidence-based expert judgment through a weighted hierarchy of topical questions may be helpful to inform preliminary risk governance and guide emerging technology development and policy.

[Computed tomographic measurement of coronary artery calcification in the assessment of cardiovascular risk: a descriptive study].

PubMed

Morcillo, César; Valderas, José M; Roca, Joan M; Oliveró, Ruperto; Núñez, Cristina; Sánchez, Mónica; Bechich, Siraj

2007-03-01

Measurement of coronary artery calcification (CAC) is used in the evaluation of cardiovascular risk. We investigated its usefulness by comparing CAC assessment with that of various risk charts. We determined cardiovascular risk in patients without known atherosclerosis using the 1998 European Task Force (ETF), REGICOR (Registre Gironí del Corazón) and SCORE (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation) charts. CAC was assessed by computerized tomography and measurements were classified as low risk (i.e., score <1), intermediate risk (i.e., score 1-100), or high risk (i.e., score >100). The study included 331 patients (mean age 54 [8.5] years, 89% male). In 44.1%, CAC was detected (mean score 96 [278]). The degree of agreement between the cardiovascular risk derived from the CAC score and that derived from the SCORE and ETF charts was acceptable: kappa=.33 (P<.05) and kappa=.28 (P<.05), respectively, but agreement was poor with the REGICOR chart: kappa=.02 (P=.32). The SCORE and ETF charts, respectively, classified 45.0% and 38.3% of patients with a CAC score >100 as high risk, whereas the REGICOR chart did not classify any of these patients as high risk. Male sex, older age, smoking history, and a family history of coronary heart disease were all associated with the detection of CAC. Measurement of CAC demonstrated calcification in 44.1% of patients without known atherosclerosis. By regarding those with a CAC score > 100 as high-risk, 10.4% of patients evaluated using the SCORE chart would be reclassified as high risk, as would 11.6% of those evaluated using the ETF chart, and 18.9% of those evaluated using the REGICOR chart. Consequently, more patients would be eligible for preventative treatment.

Prediction of cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: performance of original and adapted SCORE algorithms.

PubMed

Arts, E E A; Popa, C D; Den Broeder, A A; Donders, R; Sandoo, A; Toms, T; Rollefstad, S; Ikdahl, E; Semb, A G; Kitas, G D; Van Riel, P L C M; Fransen, J

2016-04-01

Predictive performance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculators appears suboptimal in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A disease-specific CVD risk algorithm may improve CVD risk prediction in RA. The objectives of this study are to adapt the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm with determinants of CVD risk in RA and to assess the accuracy of CVD risk prediction calculated with the adapted SCORE algorithm. Data from the Nijmegen early RA inception cohort were used. The primary outcome was first CVD events. The SCORE algorithm was recalibrated by reweighing included traditional CVD risk factors and adapted by adding other potential predictors of CVD. Predictive performance of the recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms was assessed and the adapted SCORE was externally validated. Of the 1016 included patients with RA, 103 patients experienced a CVD event. Discriminatory ability was comparable across the original, recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results indicated that all three algorithms provided poor model fit (p<0.05) for the Nijmegen and external validation cohort. The adapted SCORE algorithm mainly improves CVD risk estimation in non-event cases and does not show a clear advantage in reclassifying patients with RA who develop CVD (event cases) into more appropriate risk groups. This study demonstrates for the first time that adaptations of the SCORE algorithm do not provide sufficient improvement in risk prediction of future CVD in RA to serve as an appropriate alternative to the original SCORE. Risk assessment using the original SCORE algorithm may underestimate CVD risk in patients with RA. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation: Attention to modifiable bleeding risk factors or use of a bleeding risk stratification score? A nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Chao, Tze-Fan; Lip, Gregory Y H; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, Shih-Ann

2018-03-01

While modifiable bleeding risks should be addressed in all patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), use of a bleeding risk score enables clinicians to 'flag up' those at risk of bleeding for more regular patient contact reviews. We compared a risk assessment strategy for major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) based on modifiable bleeding risk factors (referred to as a 'MBR factors' score) against established bleeding risk stratification scores (HEMORR 2 HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT). A nationwide cohort study of 40,450 AF patients who received warfarin for stroke prevention was performed. The clinical endpoints included ICH and major bleeding. Bleeding scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (areas under the ROC curves [AUCs], or c-index) and the net reclassification index (NRI). During a follow up of 4.60±3.62years, 1581 (3.91%) patients sustained ICH and 6889 (17.03%) patients sustained major bleeding events. All tested bleeding risk scores at baseline were higher in those sustaining major bleeds. When compared to no ICH, patients sustaining ICH had higher baseline HEMORR 2 HAGES (p=0.003), HAS-BLED (p<0.001) and MBR factors score (p=0.013) but not ATRIA and ORBIT scores. When HAS-BLED was compared to other bleeding scores, c-indexes were significantly higher compared to MBR factors (p<0.001) and ORBIT (p=0.05) scores for major bleeding. C-indexes for the MBR factors score was significantly lower compared to all other scores (De long test, all p<0.001). When NRI was performed, HAS-BLED outperformed all other bleeding risk scores for major bleeding (all p<0.001). C-indexes for ATRIA and ORBIT scores suggested no significant prediction for ICH. All contemporary bleeding risk scores had modest predictive value for predicting major bleeding but the best predictive value and NRI was found for the HAS-BLED score. Simply depending on modifiable bleeding risk factors had suboptimal predictive value for the prediction of major bleeding in AF patients, when compared to the HAS-BLED score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

N-terminal fraction of pro-B-type natriuretic peptide versus clinical risk scores for prognostic stratification in chronic systolic heart failure.

PubMed

Arzilli, Chiara; Aimo, Alberto; Vergaro, Giuseppe; Ripoli, Andrea; Senni, Michele; Emdin, Michele; Passino, Claudio

2018-05-01

Background The Seattle heart failure model or the cardiac and comorbid conditions (3C-HF) scores may help define patient risk in heart failure. Direct comparisons between them or versus N-terminal fraction of pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) have never been performed. Methods Data from consecutive patients with stable systolic heart failure and 3C-HF data were examined. A subgroup of patients had the Seattle heart failure model data available. The endpoints were one year all-cause or cardiovascular death. Results The population included 2023 patients, aged 68 ± 12 years, 75% were men. At the one year time-point, 198 deaths were recorded (10%), 124 of them (63%) from cardiovascular causes. While areas under the curve were not significantly different, NT-proBNP displayed better reclassification capability than the 3C-HF score for the prediction of one year all-cause and cardiovascular death. Adding NT-proBNP to the 3C-HF score resulted in a significant improvement in risk prediction. Among patients with Seattle heart failure model data available ( n = 798), the area under the curve values for all-cause and cardiovascular death were similar for the Seattle heart failure model score (0.790 and 0.820), NT-proBNP (0.783 and 0.803), and the 3C-HF score (0.770 and 0.800). The combination of the 3C-HF score and NT-proBNP displayed a similar prognostic performance to the Seattle heart failure model score for both endpoints. Adding NT-proBNP to the Seattle heart failure model score performed better than the Seattle heart failure model alone in terms of reclassification, but not discrimination. Conclusions Among systolic heart failure patients, NT-proBNP levels had better reclassification capability for all-cause and cardiovascular death than the 3C-HF score. The inclusion of NT-proBNP to the 3C-HF and Seattle heart failure model score resulted in significantly better risk stratification.

Leisure-Time Physical Activity, but not Commuting Physical Activity, is Associated with Cardiovascular Risk among ELSA-Brasil Participants.

PubMed

Pitanga, Francisco José Gondim; Matos, Sheila M A; Almeida, Maria da Conceição; Barreto, Sandhi Maria; Aquino, Estela M L

2018-01-01

Despite reports in the literature that both leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and commuting physical activity (CPA) can promote health benefits, the literature lacks studies comparing the associations of these domains of physical activity with cardiovascular risk scores. To investigate the association between LTPA and CPA with different cardiovascular risk scores in the cohort of the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health ELSA-Brasil. Cross-sectional study with data from 13,721 participants of both genders, aged 35-74 years, free of cardiovascular disease, from ELSA Brazil. Physical activity was measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Five cardiovascular risk scores were used: Framingham score - coronary heart disease (cholesterol); Framingham score - coronary heart disease (LDL-C); Framingham score - cardiovascular disease (cholesterol); Framingham score - cardiovascular disease (body mass index, BMI); and pooled cohort equations for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Associations adjusted for confounding variables between physical activity and different cardiovascular risk scores were analyzed by logistic regression. Confidence interval of 95% (95%CI) was considered. LTPA is inversely associated with almost all cardiovascular risk scores analyzed, while CPA shows no statistically significant association with any of them. Dose-response effect in association between LTPA and cardiovascular risk scores was also found, especially in men. LTPA was shown to be associated with the cardiovascular risk scores analyzed, but CPA not. The amount of physical activity (duration and intensity) was more significantly associated, especially in men, with cardiovascular risk scores in ELSA-Brasil.

A simplified clinical risk score predicts the need for early endoscopy in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Tammaro, Leonardo; Buda, Andrea; Di Paolo, Maria Carla; Zullo, Angelo; Hassan, Cesare; Riccio, Elisabetta; Vassallo, Roberto; Caserta, Luigi; Anderloni, Andrea; Natali, Alessandro

2014-09-01

Pre-endoscopic triage of patients who require an early upper endoscopy can improve management of patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. To validate a new simplified clinical score (T-score) to assess the need of an early upper endoscopy in non variceal bleeding patients. Secondary outcomes were re-bleeding rate, 30-day bleeding-related mortality. In this prospective, multicentre study patients with bleeding who underwent upper endoscopy were enrolled. The accuracy for high risk endoscopic stigmata of the T-score was compared with that of the Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Overall, 602 patients underwent early upper endoscopy, and 472 presented with non-variceal bleeding. High risk endoscopic stigmata were detected in 145 (30.7%) cases. T-score sensitivity and specificity for high risk endoscopic stigmata and bleeding-related mortality was 96% and 30%, and 80% and 71%, respectively. No statistically difference in predicting high risk endoscopic stigmata between T-score and Glasgow Blatchford risk score was observed (ROC curve: 0.72 vs. 0.69, p=0.11). The two scores were also similar in predicting re-bleeding (ROC curve: 0.64 vs. 0.63, p=0.4) and 30-day bleeding-related mortality (ROC curve: 0.78 vs. 0.76, p=0.3). The T-score appeared to predict high risk endoscopic stigmata, re-bleeding and mortality with similar accuracy to Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Such a score may be helpful for the prediction of high-risk patients who need a very early therapeutic endoscopy. Copyright © 2014 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multidimensional Risk Analysis: MRISK

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCollum, Raymond; Brown, Douglas; O'Shea, Sarah Beth; Reith, William; Rabulan, Jennifer; Melrose, Graeme

2015-01-01

Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.

Cardiovascular disease risk in women with migraine

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Studies suggest a higher prevalence of unfavourable cardiovascular risk factors amongst migraineurs, but results have been conflicting. The aim of this study was to investigate traditional and newly recognized risk factors as well as other surrogate markers of cardiovascular risk in obese and normal weight women with migraine. Methods Fifty-nine adult female probands participated in this case–control study. The sample was divided into normal weight and obese migraineurs and age- and body mass index-matched control groups. The following cardiovascular risk factors were analyzed: serum levels of lipids, fasting glucose, and insulin; insulin resistance; blood pressure; smoking (categorized as current, past or never); Framingham 10-year risk of general cardiovascular disease score; C-reactive protein; family history of cardiovascular disease; physical activity; sleep disturbances; depression; and bioelectrical impedance phase angle. The means of continuous variables were compared using Student’s t-test for independent samples or the Mann–Whitney U-test (for 2 groups) and ANOVA or the Kruskal-Wallis test (for 4 groups) depending on the distribution of data. Results All migraineurs were sedentary irrespective of nutritional status. Migraineurs had higher depression scores and shorter sleep duration, and obese migraineurs, in particular, had worse sleep quality scores. Insulin resistance and insulinaemia were associated with obesity, and obese migraineurs had lower HDL-c than normal weight controls and migraineurs. Also, the Framingham risk score was higher in obese migraineurs. Conclusion These findings suggest that female migraineurs experience marked inactivity, depression, and some sleep disturbance, that higher insulin resistance and insulinaemia are related to obesity, and that obesity and migraine probably exert overlapping effects on HDL-c levels and Framingham 10-year cardiovascular risk. PMID:24011175

Five-Year Outcomes from 3 Prospective Trials of Image-Guided Proton Therapy for Prostate Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendenhall, Nancy P., E-mail: menden@shands.ufl.edu; Hoppe, Bradford S.; Nichols, Romaine C.

2014-03-01

Purpose: To report 5-year clinical outcomes of 3 prospective trials of image-guided proton therapy for prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: A total of 211 prostate cancer patients (89 low-risk, 82 intermediate-risk, and 40 high-risk) were treated in institutional review board-approved trials of 78 cobalt gray equivalent (CGE) in 39 fractions for low-risk disease, 78 to 82 CGE for intermediate-risk disease, and 78 CGE with concomitant docetaxel therapy followed by androgen deprivation therapy for high-risk disease. Toxicities were graded according to Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE), version 3.0. Median follow-up was 5.2 years. Results: Five-year rates of biochemical and clinicalmore » freedom from disease progression were 99%, 99%, and 76% in low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients, respectively. Actuarial 5-year rates of late CTCAE, version 3.0 (or version 4.0) grade 3 gastrointestinal and urologic toxicity were 1.0% (0.5%) and 5.4% (1.0%), respectively. Median pretreatment scores and International Prostate Symptom Scores at >4 years posttreatment were 8 and 7, 6 and 6, and 9 and 8, respectively, among the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients. There were no significant changes between median pretreatment summary scores and Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite scores at >4 years for bowel, urinary irritative and/or obstructive, and urinary continence. Conclusions: Five-year clinical outcomes with image-guided proton therapy included extremely high efficacy, minimal physician-assessed toxicity, and excellent patient-reported outcomes. Further follow-up and a larger patient experience are necessary to confirm these favorable outcomes.« less

Clear Links between Starting Methamphetamine and Increasing Sexual Risk Behavior: a cohort study among Men who have Sex with Men

PubMed Central

Hoenigl, Martin; Chaillon, Antoine; Moore, David J; Morris, Sheldon R.; Smith, Davey M.; Little, Susan J.

2015-01-01

Background It remains unclear if methamphetamine is merely associated with high risk behavior or if methamphetamine use causes high risk behavior. Determining this would require a randomized controlled trial, which is clearly not ethical. A possible surrogate would be to investigate individuals before and after starting the use of methamphetamine. Methods We performed a cohort study to analyze recent self-reported methamphetamine use and sexual risk behavior among 8,905 MSM receiving the “Early Test”, a community-based, HIV screening program in San Diego, California, between April 2008 and July 2014 (total 17,272 testing encounters). Sexual risk behavior was evaluated using a previously published risk behavior score (San Diego Early Test [SDET] score) that predicts risk of HIV acquisition. Results Methamphetamine use during the last 12 months (hereafter, recent-meth) was reported by 754/8,905 unique MSM (8.5%). SDET scores were significantly higher in the 754 MSM with recent-meth use compared to the 5,922MSM who reported that they have never used methamphetamine (p<0.001). Eighty-two repeat testers initiated methamphetamine between testing encounter, with significantly higher SDET scores after starting methamphetamine (median 5 [IQR 2–7] at recent-meth versus median 3 [IQR 0–5] at never-meth; p<0.001, respectively). Conclusions Given the ethical impossibility of conducting a randomized, controlled trial, the results presented here provide the strongest evidence yet that initiation of methamphetamine use increases sexual risk behavior among HIV-uninfected MSM. Until more effective prevention or treatment interventions are available for methamphetamine users, HIV-uninfected MSM who use methamphetamine may represent ideal candidates for alternative effective prevention interventions (i.e., pre-exposure prophylaxis). PMID:26536321

Risk Factors for Acute Kidney Injury in Severe Rhabdomyolysis

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Eva; Soler, María J.; Rap, Oana; Barrios, Clara; Orfila, María A.; Pascual, Julio

2013-01-01

Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a life-threatening complication of severe rhabdomyolysis. This study was conducted to assess risk factors for AKI and to develop a risk score for early prediction. Methods Retrospective observational cohort study with a 9-year follow-up, carried out in an acute-care teaching-affiliated hospital. A total of 126 patients with severe rhabdomyolysis defined as serum creatine kinase (CK) > 5,000 IU/L fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Univariate and logistic regression analyses were performed to determine risk factors for AKI. Based on the values obtained for each variable, a risk score and prognostic probabilities were estimated to establish the risk for developing AKI. Results The incidence of AKI was 58%. Death during hospitalization was significantly higher among patients with AKI, compared to patients without AKI (19.2% vs 3.6%, p = 0.008). The following variables were independently associated with AKI: peak CK (odds ratio [OR] 4.9, 95%CI 1.4-16.8), hypoalbuminemia (< 33 mg/dL, [OR 5.1, 95%CI 1.4-17-7]), metabolic acidosis (OR 5.3, 95%CI 1.4-20.3), and decreased prothrombin time (OR 4.4, 95% CI 1.3-14.5). A risk score for AKI was calculated for each patient, with an OR of 1.72 (95%CI 1.45-2.04). The discrimination value of the predictive model was established by means of a ROC curve, with the area under the curve of 0.871 (p<0.001). Conclusions The identification of independent factors associated with AKI and a risk score for early prediction of this complication in patients with severe rhabdomyolysis may be useful in clinical practice, particularly to implement early preventive measures. PMID:24367578

External Validation of the Simple Clinical Score and the HOTEL Score, Two Scores for Predicting Short-Term Mortality after Admission to an Acute Medical Unit

PubMed Central

Stræde, Mia; Brabrand, Mikkel

2014-01-01

Background Clinical scores can be of aid to predict early mortality after admission to a medical admission unit. A developed scoring system needs to be externally validated to minimise the risk of the discriminatory power and calibration to be falsely elevated. We performed the present study with the objective of validating the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and the HOTEL score, two existing risk stratification systems that predict mortality for medical patients based solely on clinical information, but not only vital signs. Methods Pre-planned prospective observational cohort study. Setting Danish 460-bed regional teaching hospital. Findings We included 3046 consecutive patients from 2 October 2008 until 19 February 2009. 26 (0.9%) died within one calendar day and 196 (6.4%) died within 30 days. We calculated SCS for 1080 patients. We found an AUROC of 0.960 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.932 to 0.988) for 24-hours mortality and 0.826 (95% CI, 0.774–0.879) for 30-day mortality, and goodness-of-fit test, χ2 = 2.68 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.998 and χ2 = 4.00, P = 0.947, respectively. We included 1470 patients when calculating the HOTEL score. Discriminatory power (AUROC) was 0.931 (95% CI, 0.901–0.962) for 24-hours mortality and goodness-of-fit test, χ2 = 5.56 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.234. Conclusion We find that both the SCS and HOTEL scores showed an excellent to outstanding ability in identifying patients at high risk of dying with good or acceptable precision. PMID:25144186

Coronary atherosclerosis evaluation among Iranian patients with zero coronary calcium score in computed tomography coronary angiography.

PubMed

Moradi, Maryam; Varasteh, Elham

2016-01-01

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a specific indicator of and a sensitive marker for the atherosclerotic disease process. However, calcium scoring may miss noncalcified plaques with clinical importance. The present study aimed to identify the presence and extent of coronary plaques in computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) in patients with a zero CAC score and the secondary endpoint was to evaluate the association between coronary risk factors and the presence of noncalcified plaques. In a retrospective descriptive-analytic study, a total of 2000 consecutive patients who undergone CTCA between September 2012 and September 2014 at Alzahra Hospital in Isfahan, Iran were analyzed. Three hundred and eighty-five patients with a zero calcium score were included in the study. The demographic information and coronary artery disease (CAD), risk factors including diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, and family history of CAD, were obtained from the questionnaire. Furthermore, the presence of plaques and extent of stenosis were evaluated in patients with zero CAC score. Of the 385 patients with a zero calcium score, 16 (4.2%) had atherosclerotic plaques. Among them, 6 (1.6%) had significant (>50%) coronary stenosis, and 10 (2.6%) had no significant (<50%) coronary stenosis. Hyperlipidemia, DM, and smoking were significantly associated with obstructive CAD. Furthermore, in patients with zero calcium score, DM, hyperlipidemia, and smoking had odds ratios of 5.9, 14, and 32.5 for the development of coronary artery plaques, respectively. Although, CAC scoring is a noninvasive and valuable method to evaluate CAD; but zero CAC score does not absolutely exclude the CAD, especially in the presence of risk factors such as diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and smoking.

Risk for self-reported anorexia or bulimia nervosa based on drive for thinness and negative affect clusters/dimensions during adolescence: A three-year prospective study of the TChAD cohort

PubMed Central

Peñas-Lledó, Eva; Bulik, Cynthia M.; Lichtenstein, Paul; Larsson, Henrik; Baker, Jessica H.

2015-01-01

Objective The present study explored the cross-sectional and predictive effect of drive for thinness and/or negative affect scores on the development of self-reported anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN). Method K-means were used to cluster the Eating Disorder Inventory-Drive for Thinness (DT) and Child Behavior Checklist Anxious/Depressed (A/D) scores from 615 unrelated female twins at age 16–17. Logistic regressions were used to assess the effect of these clusters on self-reported eating disorder diagnosis at ages 16–17 (n=565) and 19–20 (n=451). Results DT and A/D scores were grouped into four clusters: Mild (scores lower than 90th percentile on both scales), DT (higher scores only on DT), A/D (higher scores only on A/D), and DT-A/D (higher scores on both the DT and A/D scales). DT and DT-A/D clusters at age 16–17 were associated cross-sectionally with AN and both cross-sectionally and longitudinally with BN. The DT-A/D cluster had the highest prevalence of AN at follow-up compared with all other clusters. Similarly, an interaction was observed between DT and A/D that predicted risk for AN. Discussion Having elevated DT and A/D scores may increase risk for eating disorder symptomatology above and beyond a high score on either alone. Findings suggest that cluster modeling based on DT and A/D may be useful to inform novel and useful intervention strategies for AN and BN in adolescents. PMID:26013185

Score of liver ultrasonography predicts treatment-related severe neutropenia and neutropenic fever in induction chemotherapy with docetaxel for locally advanced head and neck cancer patients with normal serum transamines.

PubMed

Wang, Ting-Yao; Chen, Wei-Ming; Yang, Lan-Yan; Chen, Chao-Yu; Chou, Wen-Chi; Chen, Yi-Yang; Chen, Chih-Cheng; Lee, Kuan-Der; Lu, Chang-Hsien

2016-11-01

Induction chemotherapy with docetaxel improved outcome in advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients, but docetaxel was not recommended in liver dysfunction patients for treatment toxicities. Severe neutropenic events (SNE) including severe neutropenia (SN) and febrile neutropenia (FN) still developed in these patients with normal serum transaminases. Ultrasonography (US) fibrotic score represented degree of hepatic parenchymal damage and showed good correlation to fibrotic changes histologically. This study aims to evaluate the association of US fibrotic score with docetaxel treatment-related SNE in advanced HNSCC patients with normal serum transaminases. Between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2013, a total of 47 advanced HNSCC patients treated with induction docetaxel were enrolled. The clinical features were collected to assess predictive factors for SNE. The patients were divided into two groups by the US fibrotic score with a cutoff value of 7. The Mann-Whitney U test and logistic regression method were used for the risk factor analysis. The background, treatment, and response were similar in both groups except for lower lymphocyte and platelet count in patients with higher US score. Twenty-seven patients (51 %) developed grade 3/4 neutropenia, and more SNE developed in patients with US score ≧7. In multivariate analysis, only US score ≥7 was independent predictive factor for developing SN (hazard ratio 7.71, p = 0.043) and FN (hazard ratio 20.95, p = 0.008). US score ≥7 is an independent risk factor for SNE in advanced HNSCC patients treated with induction docetaxel. US score could be used for risk prediction of docetaxel-related SNE.

Prognostic value of predischarge electrocardiographic measurement of infarct size after thrombolysis: insights from GUSTO I Economics and Quality of Life substudy.

PubMed

Barbagelata, Alejandro; Califf, Robert M; Sgarbossa, Elena B; Knight, David; Mark, Daniel B; Granger, Christopher B; Armstrong, Paul W; Elizari, Marcelo; Birnbaum, Yochai; Grinfeld, Liliana R; Ohman, E Magnus; Wagner, Galen S

2004-11-01

Current methods for risk stratification after acute myocardial infarction (MI) include several noninvasive studies. In this cost-containment era, the development of low-cost means should be encouraged. We assessed the ability of an electrocardiogram (ECG) MI-sizing score to predict outcomes in patients enrolled in the Economics and Quality of Life (EQOL) sub study of the Global Utilization of Streptokinase and Tissue plasminogen activator for Occluded coronary arteries -I (GUSTO-I) trial. We classified patients by electrocardiographic Selvester QRS score at hospital discharge: those with a score 0-9 versus > or =10. Endpoints were 30-day and 1-year mortality, resource use, and quality-of-life measures. Patients with a QRS score <10 were well-matched with those with QRS score > or =10 with the exception of a trend to more anterior MI in the higher scored group. Patients with QRS score > or =10 had increased risk of death at 30-days (8.9% vs. 2.9% P < .001), and this difference persisted at 1 year (12.6% vs. 5.4%, P = .001). Recurrent chest pain, use of angiography, and angioplasty were similar during follow-up. However, there was a trend toward less coronary bypass surgery in patients with a QRS score > or =10. Readmission rates were higher at 30 days but similar at 1 year. Stratification of patients after acute MI by a simple measure of MI size identifies populations with different long-term prognoses; patients with a QRS score > or =10 (approximately 30% of the left ventricle infarcted) at discharge have poorer outcomes in both the short- and long-term. The standard 12-lead ECG provides a simple, economical means of risk stratification at discharge.

The Little Schmidy Pediatric Hospital Fall Risk Assessment Index: A diagnostic accuracy study.

PubMed

Franck, Linda S; Gay, Caryl L; Cooper, Bruce; Ezrre, Suzanne; Murphy, Barbette; Chan, June Shu-Ling; Buick, Maureen; Meer, Carrie R

2017-03-01

Falls are among the most common potentially preventable adverse events. Current pediatric falls risk assessment methods have poor precision and accuracy. To evaluate an inpatient pediatric fall risk assessment index, known as the Little Schmidy, and describe characteristics of pediatric falls. Retrospective case control and descriptive study. The dataset included 114 reported falls and 151,678 Little Schmidy scores documented in medical records during the 5-year study period (2007-2011). Pediatric medical and surgical inpatient units of an academic medical center in the western United States. Pediatric hospital inpatients <25 years of age. Nurses used the 5-item, 7-point Little Schmidy to assess fall risk each day and night shift throughout the patient's hospitalization. Conditional fixed-effects logistic regressions were used to examine predictive relationships between Little Schmidy scores (at admission, highest prior to fall, and just prior to fall) and the patient's fall status (fell or not). The sensitivity and specificity of different cut-off scores were explored. Associations between Little Schmidy scores and patient and hospitalization factors were examined using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression and multilevel mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression. Little Schmidy scores were significantly associated with pediatric falls (p<0.005). Maximal performance was achieved with a 4-item, 4-point, Little Schmidy index (LS4) using a cut-off score of 1 to indicate fall risk with sensitivity of 79% and specificity of 49%. Patients with an LS4 score ≥1 were 4 times more likely to fall before the next assessment than patients with a score of 0. LS4 scores indicative of fall risk were associated with age ≥5 years, neurological diagnosis, multiple hospitalizations, and night shift, but not with sex, length of hospital stay, or hospital unit. Of the 114 reported falls, 64% involved a male patient, nearly one third (32%) involved adolescents (13-17 years), most resulted in no (59%) or mild (36%) injury, and most (54%) were related to diagnosis or clinical characteristics. For 60% of the falls, fall precautions had been implemented prior to the fall. The revised 4-item Little Schmidy, the LS4, predicts pediatric falls when administered every day and night shift, but identifies most patients (65%) as being at risk for fall. Strategies for improving the accuracy and efficiency of the assessments are proposed. Further research is needed to develop more effective pediatric fall prevention strategies tailored to patient's age, diagnosis, and time of day. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and Validation of a Simple Risk Score for Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in a Resource-Constrained Setting

PubMed Central

Gilman, Robert H.; Sanchez-Abanto, Jose R.; Study Group, CRONICAS Cohort

2016-01-01

Objective. To develop and validate a risk score for detecting cases of undiagnosed diabetes in a resource-constrained country. Methods. Two population-based studies in Peruvian population aged ≥35 years were used in the analysis: the ENINBSC survey (n = 2,472) and the CRONICAS Cohort Study (n = 2,945). Fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L was used to diagnose diabetes in both studies. Coefficients for risk score were derived from the ENINBSC data and then the performance was validated using both baseline and follow-up data of the CRONICAS Cohort Study. Results. The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 2.0% in the ENINBSC survey and 2.9% in the CRONICAS Cohort Study. Predictors of undiagnosed diabetes were age, diabetes in first-degree relatives, and waist circumference. Score values ranged from 0 to 4, with an optimal cutoff ≥2 and had a moderate performance when applied in the CRONICAS baseline data (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI: 0.62–0.73; sensitivity 70%; specificity 59%). When predicting incident cases, the AUC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.61–0.71), with a sensitivity of 69% and specificity of 59%. Conclusions. A simple nonblood based risk score based on age, diabetes in first-degree relatives, and waist circumference can be used as a simple screening tool for undiagnosed and incident cases of diabetes in Peru. PMID:27689096

A Risk Assessment Comparison of Breast Cancer and Factors Affected to Risk Perception of Women in Turkey: A Cross-sectional Study

PubMed Central

YÜKSEL, Serpil; ALTUN UĞRAŞ, Gülay; ÇAVDAR, İkbal; BOZDOĞAN, Atilla; ÖZKAN GÜRDAL, Sibel; AKYOLCU, Neriman; ESENCAN, Ecem; VAROL SARAÇOĞLU, Gamze; ÖZMEN, Vahit

2017-01-01

Background: The increase in breast cancer incidence has enhanced attention towards breast cancer risk. The aim of this study was to determine the risk of breast cancer and risk perception of women, factors that affect risk perception, and to determine differences between absolute risk and the perception of risk. Methods: This cross-sectional study was carried out among 346 women whose score in the Gail Risk Model (GRM) was ≥ 1.67% and/or had a 1st degree relative with breast cancer in Bahçeşehir town in Istanbul, Turkey between Jul 2012 and Dec 2012. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews. The level of risk for breast cancer has been calculated using GRM and the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Form (BCRAF). Breast cancer risk perception (BCRP), has been evaluated by visual analogue 100-cm-long scale. Results: Even though 39.6% of the women considered themselves as high-risk carriers, according to the GRM and the BCRAF, only 11.6% and 9.8% of women were in the “high risk” category, respectively. There was a positive significant correlation between the GRM and the BCRAF scores (P<0.001), and the BCRAF and BCRP scores (P<0.001). Factors related to high-risk perception were age (40–59 yr), post-menopausal phase, high-very high economic income level, existence of breast cancer in the family, having regular breast self-examination and clinical breast examination (P<0.05). Conclusion: In women with high risk of breast, cancer there is a significant difference between the women’s risk perception and their absolute risk level. PMID:28435816

Clinical predictors of risk for atrial fibrillation: implications for diagnosis and monitoring.

PubMed

Brunner, Kyle J; Bunch, T Jared; Mullin, Christopher M; May, Heidi T; Bair, Tami L; Elliot, David W; Anderson, Jeffrey L; Mahapatra, Srijoy

2014-11-01

To create a risk score using clinical factors to determine whom to screen and monitor for atrial fibrillation (AF). The AF risk score was developed based on the summed odds ratios (ORs) for AF development of 7 accepted clinical risk factors. The AF risk score is intended to assess the risk of AF similar to how the CHA2DS2-VASc score assesses stroke risk. Seven validated risk factors for AF were used to develop the AF risk score: age, coronary artery disease, diabetes mellitus, sex, heart failure, hypertension, and valvular disease. The AF risk score was tested within a random population sample of the Intermountain Healthcare outpatient database. Outcomes were stratified by AF risk score for OR and Kaplan-Meier analysis. A total of 100,000 patient records with an index follow-up from January 1, 2002, through December 31, 2007, were selected and followed up for the development of AF through the time of this analysis, May 13, 2013, through September 6, 2013. Mean ± SD follow-up time was 3106±819 days. The ORs of subsequent AF diagnosis of patients with AF risk scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 or higher were 3.05, 12.9, 22.8, 34.0, and 48.0, respectively. The area under the curve statistic for the AF risk score was 0.812 (95% CI, 0.805-0.820). We developed a simple AF risk score made up of common clinical factors that may be useful to possibly select patients for long-term monitoring for AF detection. Copyright © 2014 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Joint relative risks for estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer from a clinical model, polygenic risk score, and sex hormones.

PubMed

Shieh, Yiwey; Hu, Donglei; Ma, Lin; Huntsman, Scott; Gard, Charlotte C; Leung, Jessica W T; Tice, Jeffrey A; Ziv, Elad; Kerlikowske, Karla; Cummings, Steven R

2017-11-01

Models that predict the risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers may improve our ability to target chemoprevention. We investigated the contributions of sex hormones to the discrimination of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model and a polygenic risk score comprised of 83 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We conducted a nested case-control study of 110 women with ER-positive breast cancers and 214 matched controls within a mammography screening cohort. Participants were postmenopausal and not on hormonal therapy. The associations of estradiol, estrone, testosterone, and sex hormone binding globulin with ER-positive breast cancer were evaluated using conditional logistic regression. We assessed the individual and combined discrimination of estradiol, the BCSC risk score, and polygenic risk score using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Of the sex hormones assessed, estradiol (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.64-8.06 for top vs bottom quartile), and to a lesser degree estrone, was most strongly associated with ER-positive breast cancer in unadjusted analysis. The BCSC risk score (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.00-1.75 per 1% increase) and polygenic risk score (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.06-2.36 per standard deviation) were also associated with ER-positive cancers. A model containing the BCSC risk score, polygenic risk score, and estradiol levels showed good discrimination for ER-positive cancers (AUROC 0.72, 95% CI 0.65-0.79), representing a significant improvement over the BCSC risk score (AUROC 0.58, 95% CI 0.50-0.65). Adding estradiol and a polygenic risk score to a clinical risk model improves discrimination for postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancers.

East meets West: the influence of racial, ethnic and cultural risk factors on cardiac surgical risk model performance.

PubMed

Soo-Hoo, Sarah; Nemeth, Samantha; Baser, Onur; Argenziano, Michael; Kurlansky, Paul

2018-01-01

To explore the impact of racial and ethnic diversity on the performance of cardiac surgical risk models, the Chinese SinoSCORE was compared with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk model in a diverse American population. The SinoSCORE risk model was applied to 13 969 consecutive coronary artery bypass surgery patients from twelve American institutions. SinoSCORE risk factors were entered into a logistic regression to create a 'derived' SinoSCORE whose performance was compared with that of the STS risk model. Observed mortality was 1.51% (66% of that predicted by STS model). The SinoSCORE 'low-risk' group had a mortality of 0.15%±0.04%, while the medium-risk and high-risk groups had mortalities of 0.35%±0.06% and 2.13%±0.14%, respectively. The derived SinoSCORE model had a relatively good discrimination (area under of the curve (AUC)=0.785) compared with that of the STS risk score (AUC=0.811; P=0.18 comparing the two). However, specific factors that were significant in the original SinoSCORE but that lacked significance in our derived model included body mass index, preoperative atrial fibrillation and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. SinoSCORE demonstrated limited discrimination when applied to an American population. The derived SinoSCORE had a discrimination comparable with that of the STS, suggesting underlying similarities of physiological substrate undergoing surgery. However, differential influence of various risk factors suggests that there may be varying degrees of importance and interactions between risk factors. Clinicians should exercise caution when applying risk models across varying populations due to potential differences that racial, ethnic and geographic factors may play in cardiac disease and surgical outcomes.

[Characterisation of thromboembolic risk in a mexican population with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and its effect on anticoagulation (MAYA Study)].

PubMed

Vázquez-Acosta, Jorge A; Ramírez-Gutiérrez, Álvaro E; Cerecedo-Rosendo, Mario A; Olivera-Barrera, Francisco M; Tenorio-Sánchez, Salvador S; Nieto-Villarreal, Javier; González-Borjas, José M; Villanueva-Rodríguez, Estefanie

2016-01-01

To evaluate the risk of stroke and bleeding using the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores in Mexican patients with atrial fibrillation and to analyze whether the risk score obtained determined treatment decisions regarding antithrombotic therapy. This is an observational, retrospective study in Mexican patients recently diagnosed with atrial fibrillation. The risk of stroke was assessed using the CHA2DS2-VASc scores. The bleeding risk was evaluated using the HAS-BLED score. The frequency of use of antithrombotic therapy was calculated according to the results of the score risk assessment. A total of 350 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation were analyzed. A 92.9% of patients had a high risk (score ≥ 2) of stroke according to the CHA2DS2-VASc score and only 17.2% were treated with anticoagulants. A high proportion of patients with atrial fibrillation (72.5%) showed both a high risk of stroke and a high risk of bleeding based on HAS-BLED score. In this group of patients with atrial fibrillation, from Northeast Mexico, there is a remarkably underutilization of anticoagulation despite the high risk of stroke of these patients.

Validation of the 12-Gene Colon Cancer Recurrence Score in NSABP C-07 As a Predictor of Recurrence in Patients With Stage II and III Colon Cancer Treated With Fluorouracil and Leucovorin (FU/LV) and FU/LV Plus Oxaliplatin

PubMed Central

Yothers, Greg; O'Connell, Michael J.; Lee, Mark; Lopatin, Margarita; Clark-Langone, Kim M.; Millward, Carl; Paik, Soonmyung; Sharif, Saima; Shak, Steven; Wolmark, Norman

2013-01-01

Purpose Accurate assessments of recurrence risk and absolute treatment benefit are needed to inform colon cancer adjuvant therapy. The 12-gene Recurrence Score assay has been validated in patients with stage II colon cancer from the Cancer and Leukemia Group B 9581 and Quick and Simple and Reliable (QUASAR) trials. We conducted an independent, prospectively designed clinical validation study of Recurrence Score, with prespecified end points and analysis plan, in archival specimens from patients with stage II and III colon cancer randomly assigned to fluorouracil (FU) or FU plus oxaliplatin in National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project C-07. Methods Recurrence Score was assessed in 892 fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor specimens (randomly selected 50% of patients with tissue). Data were analyzed by Cox regression adjusting for stage and treatment. Results Continuous Recurrence Score predicted recurrence (hazard ratio for a 25-unit increase in score, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.50 to 2.55; P < .001), as well as disease-free and overall survival (both P < .001). Recurrence Score predicted recurrence risk (P = .001) after adjustment for stage, mismatch repair, nodes examined, grade, and treatment. Recurrence Score did not have significant interaction with stage (P = .90) or age (P = .76). Relative benefit of oxaliplatin was similar across the range of Recurrence Score (interaction P = .48); accordingly, absolute benefit of oxaliplatin increased with higher scores, most notably in patients with stage II and IIIA/B disease. Conclusion The 12-gene Recurrence Score predicts recurrence risk in stage II and stage III colon cancer and provides additional information beyond conventional clinical and pathologic factors. Incorporating Recurrence Score into the clinical context may better inform adjuvant therapy decisions in stage III as well as stage II colon cancer. PMID:24220557

Relation of the aortic stiffness with the GRACE risk score in patients with the non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Omer, Gedikli; Gokhan, Aksan; Adem, Uzun; Sabri, Demircan; Korhan, Soylu

2014-01-01

Current guidelines recommend clinical risk scoring systems for the patients diagnosed and determinated treatment strategy with in Non-ST-elevation elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Previous studies demonstrated association between aortic elasticity properties, stiffness and severity CAD. However, the associations between Aortic stiffness, elasticity properties and clinical risk scores have not been investigated. In the present study we have evaluated the relation between the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and aortic stiffness in patients with NSTEMI. We prospectively analyzed 87 consecutive patients with NSTEMI. Aortic elastic parameter and stiffness parameter were calculated from the echocardiographically derived thoracic aortic diameters (mm/m(2)), and the measurement of pulse pressure obtained by cuff sphygmomanometry. We have categorized the patients in to two groups as low ((n = 45) (GRACE risk score ≤ 140)) and high ((n = 42) (GRACE risk score > 140)) risk group according to GRACE risk score and compare the both groups. Table 1 shows baseline characteristics of patients. Our study showed that Aortic strain was significantly low (3.5 ± 1.4, 7.9 ± 2.3 respectively, p < 0.001) and aortic stiffness index was significantly high (3.9 ± 0.38; 3 ± 0.35, respectively, p < 0.001) in the high risk group values compared to those with low risk group. The aortic stiffness index was the only independent predictor of GRACE risk score (OR: 119.390; 95% CI: 2.925-4872.8; p = 0.011) in multivariate analysis. We found a significant correlation between aortic stiffness, impaired elasticity and GRACE risk score. Aortic stiffness index was the only independent variable of the high GRACE risk score. The inclusion of aortic stiffness into the GRACE risk score could allow improved risk classification of patients with ACS at admission and this may be important in the diagnosis, follow up and treatment of the patients.

Development of a fuzzy-stochastic programming with Green Z-score criterion method for planning water resources systems with a trading mechanism.

PubMed

Zeng, X T; Huang, G H; Li, Y P; Zhang, J L; Cai, Y P; Liu, Z P; Liu, L R

2016-12-01

This study developed a fuzzy-stochastic programming with Green Z-score criterion (FSGZ) method for water resources allocation and water quality management with a trading-mechanism (WAQT) under uncertainties. FSGZ can handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions, and it can also quantify objective/subjective fuzziness in the decision-making process. Risk-averse attitudes and robustness coefficient are joined to express the relationship between the expected target and outcome under various risk preferences of decision makers and systemic robustness. The developed method is applied to a real-world case of WAQT in the Kaidu-Kongque River Basin in northwest China, where an effective mechanism (e.g., market trading) to simultaneously confront severely diminished water availability and degraded water quality is required. Results of water transaction amounts, water allocation patterns, pollution mitigation schemes, and system benefits under various scenarios are analyzed, which indicate that a trading-mechanism is a more sustainable method to manage water-environment crisis in the study region. Additionally, consideration of anthropogenic (e.g., a risk-averse attitude) and systemic factors (e.g., the robustness coefficient) can support the generation of a robust plan associated with risk control for WAQT when uncertainty is present. These findings assist local policy and decision makers to gain insights into water-environment capacity planning to balance the basin's social and economic growth with protecting the region's ecosystems.

Psoriasis and cardiovascular risk. Assessment by different cardiovascular risk scores.

PubMed

Fernández-Torres, R; Pita-Fernández, S; Fonseca, E

2013-12-01

Psoriasis is an inflammatory disease associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, very few studies determine cardiovascular risk by means of Framingham risk score or other indices more appropriate for countries with lower prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. To determine multiple cardiovascular risk scores in psoriasis patients, the relation between cardiovascular risk and psoriasis features and to compare our results with those in the literature. We assessed demographic data, smoking status, psoriasis features, blood pressure and analytical data. Cardiovascular risk was determined by means of Framingham, SCORE, DORICA and REGICOR scores. A total of 395 patients (59.7% men and 40.3% women) aged 18-86 years were included. The proportion of patients at intermediate and high risk of suffering a major cardiovascular event in the next 10 years was 30.5% and 11.4%, respectively, based on Framingham risk score; 26.9% and 2.2% according to DORICA and 6.8% and 0% using REGICOR score. According to the SCORE index, 22.1% of patients had a high risk of death due to a cardiovascular event over the next 10 years. Cardiovascular risk was not related to psoriasis characteristics, except for the Framingham index, with higher risk in patients with more severe psoriasis (P = 0.032). A considerable proportion of patients had intermediate or high cardiovascular risk, without relevant relationship with psoriasis characteristics and treatment schedules. Therefore, systematic evaluation of cardiovascular risk scores in all psoriasis patients could be useful to identify those with increased cardiovascular risk, subsidiary of lifestyle changes or therapeutic interventions. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology © 2012 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

The New York State risk score for predicting in-hospital/30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Walford, Gary; Jacobs, Alice K; Berger, Peter B; Holmes, David R; Stamato, Nicholas J; Sharma, Samin; King, Spencer B

2013-06-01

This study sought to develop a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) risk score for in-hospital/30-day mortality. Risk scores are simplified linear scores that provide clinicians with quick estimates of patients' short-term mortality rates for informed consent and to determine the appropriate intervention. Earlier PCI risk scores were based on in-hospital mortality. However, for PCI, a substantial percentage of patients die within 30 days of the procedure after discharge. New York's Percutaneous Coronary Interventions Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital/30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing PCI in 2010, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that estimates mortality rates. The score was validated by applying it to 2009 New York PCI data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the score to predict complications and length of stay. A total of 54,223 patients were used to develop the risk score. There are 11 risk factors that make up the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 9, and the highest total score is 34. The score was validated based on patients undergoing PCI in the previous year, and accurately predicted mortality for all patients as well as patients who recently suffered a myocardial infarction (MI). The PCI risk score developed here enables clinicians to estimate in-hospital/30-day mortality very quickly and quite accurately. It accurately predicts mortality for patients undergoing PCI in the previous year and for MI patients, and is also moderately related to perioperative complications and length of stay. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

HIFU therapy for patients with high risk prostate cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solovov, V. A.; Vozdvizhenskiy, M. O.; Matysh, Y. S.

2017-03-01

Objectives. Patients with high-risk prostate cancer undergoing radical prostatectomy, external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) combined with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) or ADT alone. The widely accepted definition of high-risk prostate was first proposed by D'Amico based on a pretreatment Gleason score of ≥8, clinical stage T3, PSA level ≥20 ng/mL. There is no trial that compares traditional methods of treatment of such patients with HIFU therapy. Here we explored the effectiveness of the HIFU in multimodal treatment for patients with high risk prostate cancer. Materials & Methods. 701 patients with high risk prostate cancer were treated in our center between September 2007 and December 2013. Gleason score were 8-10, stage T3N0M0, age 69 (58-86) years, mean PSA before treatment 43.3 (22.1-92.9) ng/ml, mean prostate volume - 59.3 (38-123) cc. 248 patients were treated by HIFU. We compare this group of patients with patients who undertook EBRT: number 196, and ADT: number 257. Mean follow-up time 58 months (6-72). Results. The 5-year overall survival rates in patients after HIFU were 73.8 %, after EBRT - 63.0 % and after ADT - 18.1%. Conclusions. Our experience showed that HIFU therapy in combined treatment were successful for high risk prostate cancer.

Clinical Risk Assessment in Intensive Care Unit

PubMed Central

Asefzadeh, Saeed; Yarmohammadian, Mohammad H.; Nikpey, Ahmad; Atighechian, Golrokh

2013-01-01

Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin's Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital) through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG) performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN) was in respiratory care “Ventilator's alarm malfunction (no alarm)” with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal “not washing the NG-Tube” with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care. PMID:23930171

Validation of MASCC Score for Risk Stratification in Patients of Hematological Disorders with Febrile Neutropenia.

PubMed

Taj, M; Nadeem, M; Maqsood, S; Shah, T; Farzana, T; Shamsi, T S

2017-09-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the association of MASCC score (Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer Score) in patients with febrile neutropenia (as resultant treatment of hematological disorders) for risk assessment of morbidity and mortality. Patients presenting with Febrile Neutropenia from November 2011 till December 2013 were enrolled in the study. Initially all patients were hospitalized and their MASCC score was calculated, however those with high risk stayed in hospital till full ANC recovery while low risk group was discharged earlier and keenly followed as out-patient while being on prophylactic oral antibiotics. The MASCC risk-index score was calculated and patients with risk score >21 were regarded as low-risk while <21 were labeled as high-risk. On the basis of 226 febrile neutropenia patient 132(58.4 %) were categorized as low risk while 94(41.5 %) as high risk patients according to MASCC risk index score. In low risk group 123(93 %) had uncomplicated infection while 9(7 %) had complicated infections. There was no mortality documented in low risk group while eight patients died in high risk group. In this study we correctly predicted outcome of 123(93 %) low risk group patients. The study had positive predictive value of 93 % with both sensitivity and specificity of 65 and 75 % respectively. The MASCC risk score is a valuable tool in determining the outcome in patients with febrile neutropenia.

Validation of the pooled cohort risk score in an Asian population - a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi

2014-11-20

The Pooled Cohort Risk Equation was introduced by the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) 2013 in their Blood Cholesterol Guideline to estimate the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. However, absence of Asian ethnicity in the contemporary cohorts and limited studies to examine the use of the risk score limit the applicability of the equation in an Asian population. This study examines the validity of the pooled cohort risk score in a primary care setting and compares the cardiovascular risk using both the pooled cohort risk score and the Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk score. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study of randomly selected patients aged 40-79 years. Baseline demographic data, co-morbidities and cardiovascular (CV) risk parameters were captured from patient records in 1998. Pooled cohort risk score and Framingham General CVD risk score for each patient were computed. All ASCVD events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease (CHD) death, fatal and nonfatal stroke) occurring from 1998-2007 were recorded. A total of 922 patients were studied. In 1998, mean age was 57.5 ± 8.8 years with 66.7% female. There were 47% diabetic patients and 59.9% patients receiving anti-hypertensive treatment. More than 98% of patients with pooled cohort risk score ≥7.5% had FRS >10%. A total of 45 CVD events occurred, 22 (7.2%) in males and 23 (3.7%) in females. The median pooled cohort risk score for the population was 10.1 (IQR 4.7-20.6) while the actual ASCVD events that occurred was 4.9% (45/922). Our study showed moderate discrimination with AUC of 0.63. There was good calibration with Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2 = 12.6, P = 0.12. The pooled cohort risk score appears to overestimate CV risk but this apparent over-prediction could be a result of treatment. In the absence of a validated score in an untreated population, the pooled cohort risk score appears to be appropriate for use in a primary care setting.

Calcification score versus arterial stenosis grading: comparison of two CT-based methods for risk assessment of anastomotic leakage after esophagectomy and gastric pull-up

PubMed Central

Smith, Lucy; Becker, Ingrid; Schroeder, Wolfgang; Hoelscher, Arnulf H; Haneder, Stefan; Maintz, David; Spiro, Judith Eva

2018-01-01

Purpose Anastomotic leakage is a major surgical complication following esophagectomy and gastric pull-up. Specific risk factors such as celiac trunk (TC) stenosis and high calcification score of the aorta have been identified, but no data are available on their relative prognostic values. This retrospective study aimed to compare and evaluate calcification score versus stenosis quantification with regards to prognostic impact on anastomotic leakage. Patients and methods Preoperative contrast-enhanced computed tomography scans of 164 consecutive patients with primary esophageal cancer were evaluated by two radiologists to apply a calcification score (0–3 scale) assessing the aorta, the celiac axis and the right and left postceliac arteries. Concurrently, the presence and degree of stenosis of TC and superior mesenteric artery were recorded for stenosis quantification. Results Anastomotic leakage was noted in 14/164 patients and 12/14 showed stenosis of TC (n=11). The presence of TC stenosis was found to have a significant impact on anastomotic healing (p=0.004). The odds ratio for the prediction of anastomotic leakage by the degree of stenosis was 1.04 (95% CI, 1.02–1.07). Ten of 14 patients had aortic calcification scores of 1 or 2, but calcification scores of the aorta, the celiac axis and the right and left postceliac arteries did not correlate with the corresponding TC stenosis values and showed no influence on patient outcome as defined by the occurrence of anastomotic insufficiency (p=0.565, 0.855, 0.518 and 1.000, respectively). Inter-reader reliability of computed tomography analysis and absolute agreement on calcium scoring was mostly over 90%. No significant differences in preoperative comorbidities and patient characteristics were found between those with and without anastomotic leakage. Conclusion Measurement of TC stenosis in preoperative contrast-enhanced computed tomography scans proved to be more reliable than calcification scores in predicting anastomotic leakage and should, therefore, be used in the risk assessment of patients undergoing esophagectomy and gastric pull-up. PMID:29713180

Cost-effectiveness of electronic training in domestic violence risk assessment: ODARA 101.

PubMed

Hilton, N Zoe; Ham, Elke

2015-03-01

The need for domestic violence training has increased with the development of evidence-based risk assessment tools, which must be scored correctly for valid application. Emerging research indicates that training in domestic violence risk assessment can increase scoring accuracy, but despite the increasing popularity of electronic training, it is not yet known whether it can be an effective method of risk assessment training. In the present study, 87 assessors from various professions had training in the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment either face-to-face or using an electronic training program. The two conditions were equally effective, as measured by performance on a post-training skill acquisition test. Completion rates were 100% for face-to-face and 86% for electronic training, an improvement over a previously evaluated manual-only condition. The estimated per-trainee cost of electronic training was one third that of face-to-face training and expected to decrease. More rigorous evaluations of electronic training for risk assessment are recommended. © The Author(s) 2014.

A Study of the Factors Associated with Risk for Development of Pressure Ulcers: A Longitudinal Analysis

PubMed Central

Thomas, Elizebeth; Vinodkumar, Sudhaya; Mathew, Silvia; Setia, Maninder Singh

2015-01-01

Background: Pressure ulcers (PUs) are prevalent in hospitalized patients; they may cause clinical, psychological, and economic problems in these patients. Previous studies are cross-sectional, have used pooled data, or cox-regression models to assess the risk for developing PU. However, PU risk scores change over time and models that account for time varying variables are useful for cohort analysis of data. Aims and Objectives: The present longitudinal study was conducted to compare the risk of PU between surgical and nonsurgical patients, and to evaluate the factors associated with the development of these ulcers over a period of time. Materials and Methods: We evaluated 290 hospitalized patients over a 4 months period. The main outcomes for our analysis were: (1) Score on the pressure risk assessment scale; and (2) the proportion of individuals who were at severe risk for developing PUs. We used random effects models for longitudinal analysis of the data. Results: The mean PU score was significantly higher in the nonsurgical patients compared with surgical patients at baseline (15.23 [3.86] vs. 9.33 [4.57]; P < 0.01). About 7% of the total patients had a score of >20 at baseline and were considered as being at high-risk for PU; the proportion was significantly higher among the nonsurgical patients compared with the surgical patients (14% vs. 4%, P = 0.003). In the adjusted models, there was no difference for severe risk for PU between surgical and nonsurgical patients (odds ratios [ORs]: 0.37, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.01–12.80). An additional day in the ward was associated with a significantly higher likelihood of being at high-risk for PU (OR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.16–1.86). Conclusion: There were no significant differences between patients who were admitted for surgery compared with those who were not. An additional day in the ward, however, is important for developing a high-risk score for PU on the monitoring scale, and these patients require active interventions. PMID:26677269

A cross-sectional multicentre study of cardiac risk score use in the management of unstable angina and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Engel, Josien; van der Wulp, Ineke; de Bruijne, Martine; Wagner, Cordula

2015-11-24

Quantitative risk assessment in unstable angina (UA) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), by using cardiac risk scores, is recommended in international guidelines. However, a gap between recommended care and actual practice exists, as these instruments seem underused in practice. The present study aimed to determine the extent of cardiac risk score use and to study factors associated with lower or higher cardiac risk score use. 13 hospitals throughout the Netherlands. A retrospective chart review of 1788 charts of patients with UA and NSTEMI, discharged in 2012. The extent of cardiac risk score use reflected in a documented risk score outcome in the patient's chart. Factors associated with cardiac risk score use determined by generalised linear mixed models. In 57% (n=1019) of the charts, physicians documented the use of a cardiac risk score. Substantial variation between hospitals was observed (16.7-87%), although this variation could not be explained by the presence of on-site revascularisation facilities or a hospitals' teaching status. Obese patients (OR=1.49; CI 95%1.03 to 2.15) and former smokers (OR=1.56; CI 95%1.15 to 2.11) were more likely to have a cardiac risk score documented. Risk scores were less likely to be used among patients diagnosed with UA (OR=0.60; CI 95% 0.46 to 0.77), in-hospital resuscitation (OR=0.23; CI 95% 0.09 to 0.64), in-hospital heart failure (OR=0.46; CI 95% 0.27 to 0.76) or tachycardia (OR=0.45; CI 95% 0.26 to 0.75). Despite recommendations in cardiac guidelines, the use of cardiac risk scores has not been fully implemented in Dutch practice. A substantial number of patients did not have a cardiac risk score documented in their chart. Strategies to improve cardiac risk score use should pay special attention to patient groups in which risk scores were less often documented, as these patients may currently be undertreated. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score: Results from the Filipino-American Women Cardiovascular Study.

PubMed

Ancheta, Irma B; Battie, Cynthia A; Volgman, Annabelle S; Ancheta, Christine V; Palaniappan, Latha

2017-02-01

Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality of Filipino-Americans, conventional CVD risk calculators may not be accurate for this population. CVD risk scores of a group of Filipino-American women (FAW) were measured using the major risk calculators. Secondly, the sensitivity of the various calculators to obesity was determined. This is a cross-sectional descriptive study that enrolled 40-65-year-old FAW (n = 236), during a community-based health screening study. Ten-year CVD risk was calculated using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Reynolds Risk Score (RRS), and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) calculators. The 30-year risk FRS and the lifetime ASCVD calculators were also determined. Levels of predicted CVD risk varied as a function of the calculator. The 10-year ASCVD calculator classified 12 % of participants with ≥10 % risk, but the 10-year FRS and RRS calculators classified all participants with ≤10 % risk. The 30-year "Hard" Lipid and BMI FRS calculators classified 32 and 43 % of participants with high (≥20 %) risk, respectively, while 95 % of participants were classified with ≥20 % risk by the lifetime ASCVD calculator. The percent of participants with elevated CVD risk increased as a function of waist circumference for most risk score calculators. Differences in risk score as a function of the risk score calculator indicate the need for outcome studies in this population. Increased waist circumference was associated with increased CVD risk scores underscoring the need for obesity control as a primary prevention of CVD in FAW.

Use of a prenatal risk screen to predict maternal traumatic pregnancy-associated death: program and policy implications.

PubMed

Hardt, Nancy S; Eliazar, Jessica; Burt, Martha; Das, Rajeeb; Winter, William P; Saliba, Heidi; Roth, Jeffrey

2013-01-01

Motor vehicle crashes, homicide, suicide, and drug abuse are among the leading causes of pregnancy-associated deaths. To prevent such deaths, identifying women for intervention is required. The universally offered Florida Healthy Start Prenatal Risk Screen was evaluated to identify women at increased risk for traumatic pregnancy-associated death. Florida's Enhanced Maternal Mortality Reporting Database for 1999 through 2005 was linked with Florida's Healthy Start Prenatal Risk Screen to identify traumatic pregnancy-associated death as the outcome. Distribution of Healthy Start risk scores among women who died were compared with the screened population. Traumatic death estimates per 100,000 births were drawn for each risk score, along with estimates of the relative risk (RR) of traumatic death for each score. The RR of women with scores greater than or equal to 4 were compared with the risk of women scoring 0 to 3. Almost 20% of the 620,959 women who did not die of traumatic death had a risk score of 0, compared with only 3% of the 144 women who did die of traumatic death. As risk scores increased, the chance of traumatic deaths sharply increased. A woman with a score of 4 had 11.78 times (confidence interval [CI], 4.63-29.69) the risk of traumatic death compared with a woman with a risk score of 0. The implementation of prenatal risk screening to identify women at increased risk for traumatic pregnancy-associated death would help to ensure that policies to reduce infant risk factors also address maternal risk factors. Copyright © 2013 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The modified "Rockfall Hazard Rating System": a new tool for roads risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budetta, P.

2003-04-01

This paper contains a modified method for the analysis of rockfall hazard along roads and motorways. The method is derived from that one developed by Pierson et alii at the Oregon State Highway Division. The Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) provides a rational way to make informed decisions on where and how to spend construction funds. An exponential scoring graph is used to represent the increase in hazard that is reflected in the nine categories forming the classification (slope height, ditch effectiveness, average vehicle risk, percent of decision site distance, roadway width, geological character, quantity of rockfall/event, climate and rock fall history). The resulting total score contains the essential elements regarding the evaluation of the consequences ("cost of failure"). In the modified method, the rating for the categories "ditch effectiveness", "decision sight distance", "rodway width", "geologic characteristic" and "climate and water circulation" have been rendered more easy and objective. The main modifications regard the introduction of the Romana's Slope Mass Rating improving the estimate of the geologic characteristics, of the volume of the potentially unstable blocks and underground water circulation. Other modifications regard the scoring determination for the categories "decision sight distance" and "road geometry". For these categories, the Italian National Council's standards (CNR) have been used. The method must be applied in both the traffic directions because the percentage of reduction in the "decision sight distance" greatly affects the results. An application of the method to a 2-km-long section of the Sorrentine road (n° 145) in Southern Italy was pointed out. A high traffic intensity affects the entire section of the road and rockfalls periodically cause casualties, as well as a large amount of damage and traffic interruptions. The method was applied on seven cross section traces of slopes adjacent to the Sorrentine road and the total final scores range between 275 and 450. For these slopes, the analysis shows that the risk is unacceptable and it must reduced using urgent remedial works. Further applications in other geological environments are welcomed.

Comparison of traditional diabetes risk scores and HbA1c to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in a population based cohort study.

PubMed

Krabbe, Christine Emma Maria; Schipf, Sabine; Ittermann, Till; Dörr, Marcus; Nauck, Matthias; Chenot, Jean-François; Markus, Marcello Ricardo Paulista; Völzke, Henry

2017-11-01

Compare performances of diabetes risk scores and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) to estimate the risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Northeast Germany. We studied 2916 subjects (20 to 81years) from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) in a 5-year follow-up period. Diabetes risk scores included the Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) base model, the Danish diabetes risk score and the Data from the Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance syndrome (D.E.S.I.R) clinical risk score. We assessed the performance of each of the diabetes risk scores and the HbA1c for 5-year risk of T2DM by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots. In SHIP, the incidence of T2DM was 5.4% (n=157) in the 5-year follow-up period. Diabetes risk scores and HbA1c achieved AUCs ranging from 0.76 for the D.E.S.I.R. clinical risk score to 0.82 for the KORA base model. For diabetes risk scores, the discriminative ability was lower for the age group 55 to 74years. For HbA1c, the discriminative ability also decreased for the group 55 to 74years while it was stable in the age group 30 to 64years old. All diabetes risk scores and the HbA1c showed a good prediction for the risk of T2DM in SHIP. Which model or biomarker should be used is driven by its context of use, e.g. the practicability, implementation of interventions and availability of measurement. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk management of QTc-prolongation in patients receiving haloperidol: an epidemiological study in a University hospital in Belgium.

PubMed

Vandael, Eline; Vandenberk, Bert; Vandenberghe, Joris; Spriet, Isabel; Willems, Rik; Foulon, Veerle

2016-04-01

Many drugs, including haloperidol, are linked with a risk of QTc-prolongation, which can lead to Torsade de Pointes and sudden cardiac death. To investigate the prevalence of concomitant risk factors for QTc-prolongation in patients treated with haloperidol, and the use of safety measures to minimize this risk. University Hospitals of Leuven, Belgium. Methods A retrospective epidemiological study was performed. On 15 consecutive Mondays, all patients with a prescription for haloperidol were included. A risk score for QTc-prolongation, inspired by the pro-QTc score of Haugaa et al., was calculated based on gender, comorbidities, lab results and concomitant QTc-prolonging drugs (each factor counting for one point). Available electrocardiograms before and during the treatment of haloperidol were registered. Management of the risk of QTc-prolongation. Two hundred twenty-two patients were included (59.0 % men, median age 77 years) of whom 26.6 % had a risk score of ≥4 (known to significantly increase the mortality). Overall, 24.3 % received haloperidol in combination with other drugs with a known risk of Torsade de Pointes. Half of the patients had an electrocardiogram in the week before the start of haloperidol; only in one-third a follow-up electrocardiogram during haloperidol treatment was performed. Of the patients with a moderately (n = 41) or severely (n = 14) prolonged QTc-interval before haloperidol, 48.8 % and 42.9 % respectively had a follow-up electrocardiogram. In patients with a risk score ≥4, significantly more electrocardiograms were taken before starting haloperidol (p = 0.020). Although many patients had risk factors for QTc-prolongation (including the use of other QTc-prolonging drugs) or had a prolonged QTc on a baseline electrocardiogram, follow-up safety measures were limited. Persistent efforts should be taken to develop decision support systems to manage this risk.

Comparison of RISK-PCI, GRACE, TIMI risk scores for prediction of major adverse cardiac events in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

PubMed

Jakimov, Tamara; Mrdović, Igor; Filipović, Branka; Zdravković, Marija; Djoković, Aleksandra; Hinić, Saša; Milić, Nataša; Filipović, Branislav

2017-12-31

To compare the prognostic performance of three major risk scoring systems including global registry for acute coronary events (GRACE), thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI), and prediction of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (RISK-PCI). This single-center retrospective study involved 200 patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who underwent invasive diagnostic approach, ie, coronary angiography and myocardial revascularization if appropriate, in the period from January 2014 to July 2014. The GRACE, TIMI, and RISK-PCI risk scores were compared for their predictive ability. The primary endpoint was a composite 30-day major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), which included death, urgent target-vessel revascularization (TVR), stroke, and non-fatal recurrent myocardial infarction (REMI). The c-statistics of the tested scores for 30-day MACE or area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with confidence intervals (CI) were as follows: RISK-PCI (AUC=0.94; 95% CI 1.790-4.353), the GRACE score on admission (AUC=0.73; 95% CI 1.013-1.045), the GRACE score on discharge (AUC=0.65; 95% CI 0.999-1.033). The RISK-PCI score was the only score that could predict TVR (AUC=0.91; 95% CI 1.392-2.882). The RISK-PCI scoring system showed an excellent discriminative potential for 30-day death (AUC=0.96; 95% CI 1.339-3.548) in comparison with the GRACE scores on admission (AUC=0.88; 95% CI 1.018-1.072) and on discharge (AUC=0.78; 95% CI 1.000-1.058). In comparison with the GRACE and TIMI scores, RISK-PCI score showed a non-inferior ability to predict 30-day MACE and death in ACS patients. Moreover, RISK-PCI was the only scoring system that could predict recurrent ischemia requiring TVR.

Simple new risk score model for adult cardiac extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: simple cardiac ECMO score.

PubMed

Peigh, Graham; Cavarocchi, Nicholas; Keith, Scott W; Hirose, Hitoshi

2015-10-01

Although the use of cardiac extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is increasing in adult patients, the field lacks understanding of associated risk factors. While standard intensive care unit risk scores such as SAPS II (simplified acute physiology score II), SOFA (sequential organ failure assessment), and APACHE II (acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II), or disease-specific scores such as MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) and RIFLE (kidney risk, injury, failure, loss of function, ESRD) exist, they may not apply to adult cardiac ECMO patients as their risk factors differ from variables used in these scores. Between 2010 and 2014, 73 ECMOs were performed for cardiac support at our institution. Patient demographics and survival were retrospectively analyzed. A new easily calculated score for predicting ECMO mortality was created using identified risk factors from univariate and multivariate analyses, and model discrimination was compared with other scoring systems. Cardiac ECMO was performed on 73 patients (47 males and 26 females) with a mean age of 48 ± 14 y. Sixty-four percent of patients (47/73) survived ECMO support. Pre-ECMO SAPS II, SOFA, APACHE II, MELD, RIFLE, PRESERVE, and ECMOnet scores, were not correlated with survival. Univariate analysis of pre-ECMO risk factors demonstrated that increased lactate, renal dysfunction, and postcardiotomy cardiogenic shock were risk factors for death. Applying these data into a new simplified cardiac ECMO score (minimal risk = 0, maximal = 5) predicted patient survival. Survivors had a lower risk score (1.8 ± 1.2) versus the nonsurvivors (3.0 ± 0.99), P < 0.0001. Common intensive care unit or disease-specific risk scores calculated for cardiac ECMO patients did not correlate with ECMO survival, whereas a new simplified cardiac ECMO score provides survival predictability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting tuberculosis risk in the foreign-born population of British Columbia, Canada: study protocol for a retrospective population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Ronald, Lisa A; Campbell, Jonathon R; Balshaw, Robert F; Roth, David Z; Romanowski, Kamila; Marra, Fawziah; Cook, Victoria J; Johnston, James C

2016-01-01

Introduction Improved understanding of risk factors for developing active tuberculosis (TB) will better inform decisions about diagnostic testing and treatment for latent TB infection (LTBI) in migrant populations in low-incidence regions. We aim to examine TB risk factors among the foreign-born population in British Columbia (BC), Canada, and to create and validate a clinically relevant multivariate risk score to predict active TB. Methods and analysis This retrospective population-based cohort study will include all foreign-born individuals who acquired permanent resident status in Canada between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2013 and acquired healthcare coverage in BC at any point during this period. Multiple administrative databases and disease registries will be linked, including a National Immigration Database, BC Provincial Health Insurance Registration, physician billings, hospitalisations, drugs dispensed from community pharmacies, vital statistics, HIV testing and notifications, cancer, chronic kidney disease and dialysis treatment, and all TB and LTBI testing and treatment data in BC. Extended proportional hazards regression will be used to estimate risk factors for TB and to create a prognostic TB risk score. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval for this study has been obtained from the University of British Columbia Clinical Ethics Review Board. Once completed, study findings will be presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. An online TB risk score calculator will also be created. PMID:27888179

Assessment of three risk evaluation systems for patients aged ≥70 in East China: performance of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

PubMed

Shan, Lingtong; Ge, Wen; Pu, Yiwei; Cheng, Hong; Cang, Zhengqiang; Zhang, Xing; Li, Qifan; Xu, Anyang; Wang, Qi; Gu, Chang; Zhang, Yangyang

2018-01-01

To assess and compare the predictive ability of three risk evaluation systems (SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system) in patients aged ≥70, and who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in East China. Three risk evaluation systems were applied to 1,946 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG from January 2004 to September 2016 in two hospitals. Patients were divided into two subsets according to their age: elderly group (age ≥70) with a younger group (age <70) used for comparison. The outcome of interest in this study was in-hospital mortality. The entire cohort and subsets of patients were analyzed. The calibration and discrimination in total and in subsets were assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow and the C statistics respectively. Institutional overall mortality was 2.52%. The expected mortality rates of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system were 0.78(0.64)%, 1.43(1.14)% and 0.78(0.77)%, respectively. SinoSCORE achieved the best discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.829), followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = 0.790) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.769) in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, the observed mortality rate was 4.82% while it was 1.38% in the younger group. SinoSCORE (AUC = .829) also achieved the best discrimination in the elderly group, followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = .730) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.640) while all three risk evaluation systems all had good performances in the younger group. SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system all achieved positive calibrations in the entire cohort and subsets. The performance of the three risk evaluation systems was not ideal in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, SinoSCORE appeared to achieve better predictive efficiency than EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

Utility of different cardiovascular disease prediction models in rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Purcarea, A; Sovaila, S; Udrea, G; Rezus, E; Gheorghe, A; Tiu, C; Stoica, V

2014-01-01

Rheumatoid arthritis comes with a 30% higher probability for cardiovascular disease than the general population. Current guidelines advocate for early and aggressive primary prevention and treatment of risk factors in high-risk populations but this excess risk is under-addressed in RA in real life. This is mainly due to difficulties met in the correct risk evaluation. This study aims to underline the differences in results of the main cardiovascular risk screening models in the real life rheumatoid arthritis population. In a cross-sectional study, patients addressed to a tertiary care center in Romania for an biannual follow-up of rheumatoid arthritis and the ones who were considered free of any cardiovascular disease were assessed for subclinical atherosclerosis. Clinical, biological and carotidal ultrasound evaluations were performed. A number of cardiovascular disease prediction scores were performed and differences between tests were noted in regard to subclinical atherosclerosis as defined by the existence of carotid intima media thickness over 0,9 mm or carotid plaque. In a population of 29 Romanian rheumatoid arthritis patients free of cardiovascular disease, the performance of Framingham Risk Score, HeartSCORE, ARIC cardiovascular disease prediction score, Reynolds Risk Score, PROCAM risk score and Qrisk2 score were compared. All the scores under-diagnosed subclinical atherosclerosis. With an AUROC of 0,792, the SCORE model was the only one that could partially stratify patients in low, intermediate and high-risk categories. The use of the EULAR recommended modifier did not help to reclassify patients. The only score that showed a statistically significant prediction capacity for subclinical atherosclerosis in a Romanian rheumatoid arthritis population was SCORE. The additional calibration or the use of imaging techniques in CVD risk prediction for the intermediate risk category might be warranted.

Incident Risk Factors and Major Bleeding in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation Treated with Oral Anticoagulants: A Comparison of Baseline, Follow-up and Delta HAS-BLED Scores with an Approach Focused on Modifiable Bleeding Risk Factors.

PubMed

Chao, Tze-Fan; Lip, Gregory Y H; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, Shih-Ann

2018-04-01

 When assessing bleeding risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), risk stratification is often based on the baseline risks. We aimed to investigate changes in bleeding risk factors and alterations in the HAS-BLED score in AF patients. We hypothesized that a follow-up HAS-BLED score and the 'delta HAS-BLED score' (reflecting the change in score between baseline and follow-up) would be more predictive of major bleeding, when compared with baseline HAS-BLED score.  A total of 19,566 AF patients receiving warfarin and baseline HAS-BLED score ≤2 were studied. After a follow-up of 93,783 person-years, 3,032 major bleeds were observed. The accuracies of baseline, follow-up, and delta HAS-BLED scores as well as cumulative numbers of baseline modifiable bleeding risk factors, in predicting subsequent major bleeding, were analysed and compared. The mean baseline HAS-BLED score was 1.43 which increased to 2.45 with a mean 'delta HAS-BLED score' of 1.03. The HAS-BLED score remained unchanged in 38.2% of patients. Of those patients experiencing major bleeding, 76.6% had a 'delta HAS-BLED' score ≥1, compared with only 59.0% in patients without major bleeding ( p  < 0.001). For prediction of major bleeding, AUC was significantly higher for the follow-up HAS-BLED (0.63) or delta HAS-BLED (0.62) scores, compared with baseline HAS-BLED score (0.54). The number of baseline modifiable risk factors was non-significantly predictive of major bleeding (AUC = 0.49).  In this 'real-world' nationwide AF cohort, follow-up HAS-BLED or 'delta HAS-BLED score' was more predictive of major bleeding compared with baseline HAS-BLED or the simple determination of 'modifiable bleeding risk factors'. Bleeding risk in AF is a dynamic process and use of the HAS-BLED score should be to 'flag up' patients potentially at risk for more regular review and follow-up, and to address the modifiable bleeding risk factors during follow-up visits. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.

Predictive Validity of the Suicide Trigger Scale (STS-3) for Post-Discharge Suicide Attempt in High-Risk Psychiatric Inpatients

PubMed Central

Yaseen, Zimri S.; Kopeykina, Irina; Gutkovich, Zinoviy; Bassirnia, Anahita; Cohen, Lisa J.; Galynker, Igor I.

2014-01-01

Background The greatly increased risk of suicide after psychiatric hospitalization is a critical problem, yet we are unable to identify individuals who would attempt suicide upon discharge. The Suicide Trigger Scale v.3 (STS-3), was designed to measure the construct of an affective ‘suicide trigger state’ hypothesized to precede a suicide attempt (SA). This study aims to test the predictive validity of the STS-3 for post-discharge SA on a high-risk psychiatric-inpatient sample. Methods The STS-3, and a psychological test battery measuring suicidality, mood, impulsivity, trauma history, and attachment style were administered to 161 adult psychiatric patients hospitalized following suicidal ideation (SI) or SA. Receiver Operator Characteristic and logistic regression analyses were used to assess prediction of SA in the 6-month period following discharge from hospitalization. Results STS-3 scores for the patients who made post-discharge SA followed a bimodal distribution skewed to high and low scores, thus a distance from median transform was applied to the scores. The transformed score was a significant predictor of post-discharge SA (AUC 0.731), and a subset of six STS-3 scale items was identified that produced improved prediction of post-discharge SA (AUC 0.814). Scores on C-SSRS and BSS were not predictive. Patients with ultra-high (90th percentile) STS-3 scores differed significantly from ultra-low (10th percentile) scorers on measures of affective intensity, depression, impulsiveness, abuse history, and attachment security. Conclusion STS-3 transformed scores at admission to the psychiatric hospital predict suicide attempts following discharge among the high-risk group of suicidal inpatients. Patients with high transformed scores appear to comprise two clinically distinct groups; an impulsive, affectively intense, fearfully attached group with high raw STS-3 scores and a low-impulsivity, low affect and low trauma-reporting group with low raw STS-3 scores. These groups may correspond to low-plan and planned suicide attempts, respectively, but this remains to be established by future research. PMID:24466229

Can Exercise Capacity Assessed by the 6 Minute Walk Test Predict the Development of Major Adverse Cardiac Events in Patients with STEMI after Fibrinolysis?

PubMed Central

Hassan, Ayman K. M.; Dimitry, Salwa R.; Agban, George W.

2014-01-01

Background To assess the added value of the 6 minute walk test distance (6MWTD) in the risk-stratification methods for patients with ST -segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated with fibrinolysis. Methodology/Principal Findings This is a prospective cohort study of one hundred consecutive patients with STEMI, who had received fibrinolysis, at Assuit University Hospital. All patients underwent 6MWT pre- discharge and were followed up for 3 months to monitor the incidence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Patients were divided into 3 groups according to the level of 6MWTD (level I>450 m, level II = 300–450 m and level III<300 m). Among the study population, the median 6MWT distance was 370 meters (interquartile range 162–462). The mean age was 60.9±10.7 years, 71.9% of them were males, 2/3 had anterior MI. only 10.5% had successful thrombolysis. Compared to patients in level I (>450 m), patients in level III (<300 m) were more likely to have clinical risk factors as hypertension, diabetes and impaired renal function. The patient's mean TIMI score was 3.4±2.2, the mean GRACE score was 150.5±27.7. There was a significant negative correlation between the 6 MWTD and GRACE risk score (r = −0.80, p<0.001). At 3 months of follow-up, 51% had MACE including 16% were dead. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that the GRACE risk score and 6MWT distance levels were the best predictors of the MACE at 3 month of follow up. The incidence of MACE was 4 times higher in patients with high GRACE risk score who couldn't walk more than 300 meters (OR = 4.66, 95% CI = 1.1–14.5, p = 0.006). Conclusions/Significance In patients with STEMI treated with fibrinolysis, the addition of 6MWTD assessment pre-discharge to the traditional GRACE risk score improved the risk prediction of cardiovascular events at 3 month follow up. PMID:24905094

Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome Without Diabetes or Cardiovascular Disease: Usefulness of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score.

PubMed

Masson, Walter; Epstein, Teo; Huerín, Melina; Lobo, Lorenzo Martín; Molinero, Graciela; Angel, Adriana; Masson, Gerardo; Millán, Diana; De Francesca, Salvador; Vitagliano, Laura; Cafferata, Alberto; Losada, Pablo

2017-09-01

The estimated cardiovascular risk determined by the different risk scores, could be heterogeneous in patients with metabolic syndrome without diabetes or vascular disease. This risk stratification could be improved by detecting subclinical carotid atheromatosis. To estimate the cardiovascular risk measured by different scores in patients with metabolic syndrome and analyze its association with the presence of carotid plaque. Non-diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III definition) without cardiovascular disease were enrolled. The Framingham score, the Reynolds score, the new score proposed by the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator were calculated. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined by ultrasound examination. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed. A total of 238 patients were enrolled. Most patients were stratified as "low risk" by Framingham score (64%) and Reynolds score (70.1%). Using the 2013 ACC/AHA score, 45.3% of the population had a risk ≥7.5%. A significant correlation was found between classic scores but the agreement (concordance) was moderate. The correlation between classical scores and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator was poor. Overall, the prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.2%. The continuous metabolic syndrome score used in our study showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque (area under the curve 0.752). In this population, the calculated cardiovascular risk was heterogenic. The prevalence of carotid plaque was high. The Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque.

Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) scoring system could provide preoperative advice on whether to undergo laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer patients with a high physiological risk

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ao; Liu, Tingting; Zheng, Kaiyuan; Liu, Ningbo; Huang, Fei; Li, Weidong; Liu, Tong; Fu, Weihua

2017-01-01

Abstract Laparoscopic colorectal surgery had been widely used for colorectal cancer patient and showed a favorable outcome on the postoperative morbidity rate. We attempted to evaluate physiological status of patients by mean of Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) system and to analyze the difference variation of postoperative morbidity rate of open and laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery in patients with different physiological status. In total 550 colorectal cancer patients who underwent surgery treatment were included. E-PASS and some conventional scoring systems were reviewed to examine their mortality prediction ability. The preoperative risk score (PRS) in the E-PASS system was used to evaluate the physiological status of patients. The difference of postoperative morbidity rate between open and laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgeries was analyzed respectively in patients with different physiological status. E-PASS had better prediction ability than other conventional scoring systems in colorectal cancer surgeries. Postoperative morbidities were developed in 143 patients. The parameters in the E-PASS system had positive correlations with postoperative morbidity. The overall postoperative morbidity rate of laparoscopic surgeries was lower than open surgeries (19.61% and 28.46%), but the postoperative morbidity rate of laparoscopic surgeries increased more significantly than in open surgery as PRS increased. When PRS was more than 0.7, the postoperative morbidity rate of laparoscopic surgeries would exceed the postoperative morbidity rate of open surgeries. The E-PASS system was capable to evaluate the physiological and surgical risk of colorectal cancer surgery. PRS could assist preoperative decision-making on the surgical method. Colorectal cancer patients who were assessed with a low physiological risk by PRS would be safe to undergo laparoscopic surgery. On the contrary, surgeons should make decisions prudently on the operation method for patient with a high physiological risk. PMID:28816959

Lowering risk score profile during PCI in multiple vessel disease is associated with low adverse events: The ERACI risk score.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Alfredo E; Fernandez-Pereira, Carlos; Mieres, Juan; Pavlovsky, Hernan; Del Pozo, Juan; Rodriguez-Granillo, Alfredo M; Antoniucci, David

2018-02-13

In recent years angiographic risk scores have been introduced in clinical practice to stratify different levels of risk after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). The SYNTAX score included all intermediate lesions in vessels ≥1.5 mm, consequently, multiple stent implantation was required. Four years ago, we built a new angiographic score in order to guide PCI strategy avoiding stent deployment both in intermediate stenosis as in small vessels, therefore these were not scored (ERACI risk score). The purpose of this mini review is to validate the strategy of PCI guided by this scoring, taking into account long term follow up outcomes of two observational and prospective registries where this policy was used. With this new risk score we have modified risk profile of our patient's candidates for PCI or coronary artery bypass surgery lowering the risk and <20% of them are now included anatomically as high risk for PCI. The simple exclusion of small vessels and intermediate stenosis from the revascularization approach resulted in clinical outcome comparable with the one of fractional flow reserve guided revascularization. Low events rate at late follow up observed in both studies was also in agreement with guided PCI by functional lesion assessment observed by Syntax II registry, where investigators found lower events rate in spite of a few number of stents implanted per patient. use of ERACI risk scores may significantly reclassify patients into a lower risk category and be associated with low adverse events rate. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The novel EuroSCORE II algorithm predicts the hospital mortality of thoracic aortic surgery in 461 consecutive Japanese patients better than both the original additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms.

PubMed

Nishida, Takahiro; Sonoda, Hiromichi; Oishi, Yasuhisa; Tanoue, Yoshihisa; Nakashima, Atsuhiro; Shiokawa, Yuichi; Tominaga, Ryuji

2014-04-01

The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II was developed to improve the overestimation of surgical risk associated with the original (additive and logistic) EuroSCOREs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the significance of the EuroSCORE II by comparing its performance with that of the original EuroSCOREs in Japanese patients undergoing surgery on the thoracic aorta. We have calculated the predicted mortalities according to the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms in 461 patients who underwent surgery on the thoracic aorta during a period of 20 years (1993-2013). The actual in-hospital mortality rates in the low- (additive EuroSCORE of 3-6), moderate- (7-11) and high-risk (≥11) groups (followed by overall mortality) were 1.3, 6.2 and 14.4% (7.2% overall), respectively. Among the three different risk groups, the expected mortality rates were 5.5 ± 0.6, 9.1 ± 0.7 and 13.5 ± 0.2% (9.5 ± 0.1% overall) by the additive EuroSCORE algorithm, 5.3 ± 0.1, 16 ± 0.4 and 42.4 ± 1.3% (19.9 ± 0.7% overall) by the logistic EuroSCORE algorithm and 1.6 ± 0.1, 5.2 ± 0.2 and 18.5 ± 1.3% (7.4 ± 0.4% overall) by the EuroSCORE II algorithm, indicating poor prediction (P < 0.0001) of the mortality in the high-risk group, especially by the logistic EuroSCORE. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms were 0.6937, 0.7169 and 0.7697, respectively. Thus, the mortality expected by the EuroSCORE II more closely matched the actual mortality in all three risk groups. In contrast, the mortality expected by the logistic EuroSCORE overestimated the risks in the moderate- (P = 0.0002) and high-risk (P < 0.0001) patient groups. Although all of the original EuroSCOREs and EuroSCORE II appreciably predicted the surgical mortality for thoracic aortic surgery in Japanese patients, the EuroSCORE II best predicted the mortalities in all risk groups.

Neurointerventional Treatment in Acute Stroke. Whom to Treat? (Endovascular Treatment for Acute Stroke: Utility of THRIVE Score and HIAT Score for Patient Selection)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fjetland, Lars, E-mail: lars.fjetland@lyse.net; Roy, Sumit, E-mail: sumit.roy@sus.no; Kurz, Kathinka D., E-mail: kathinka.dehli.kurz@sus.no

2013-10-15

Purpose: Intra-arterial therapy (IAT) is used increasingly as a treatment option for acute stroke caused by central large vessel occlusions. Despite high rates of recanalization, the clinical outcome is highly variable. The authors evaluated the Houston IAT (HIAT) and the totaled health risks in vascular events (THRIVE) score, two predicting scores designed to identify patients likely to benefit from IAT. Methods: Fifty-two patients treated at the Stavanger University Hospital with IAT from May 2009 to June 2012 were included in this study. We combined the scores in an additional analysis. We also performed an additional analysis according to high agemore » and evaluated the scores in respect of technical efficacy. Results: Fifty-two patients were evaluated by the THRIVE score and 51 by the HIAT score. We found a strong correlation between the level of predicted risk and the actual clinical outcome (THRIVE p = 0.002, HIAT p = 0.003). The correlations were limited to patients successfully recanalized and to patients <80 years. By combining the scores additional 14.3 % of the patients could be identified as poor candidates for IAT. Both scores were insufficient to identify patients with a good clinical outcome. Conclusions: Both scores showed a strong correlation to poor clinical outcome in patients <80 years. The specificity of the scores could be enhanced by combining them. Both scores were insufficient to identify patients with a good clinical outcome and showed no association to clinical outcome in patients aged {>=}80 years.« less

Type A Behavior Pattern, Impulsiveness, Risk Propensity, and Empathy as Predictors of Dyspnea and Number of Infections in Men with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Cross-Sectional Study.

PubMed

Witusik, Andrzej; Mokros, Łukasz; Kuna, Piotr; Nowakowska-Domagała, Katarzyna; Antczak, Adam; Pietras, Tadeusz

2018-06-06

BACKGROUND Stress and psychological factors can induce dyspnea in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim of this study was to assess selected elements of the clinical presentation of COPD in the context of the severity of type A pattern of behavior, impulsiveness, and tendency for empathy. MATERIAL AND METHODS This was a cross-sectional study. The study group consisted of 179 men with COPD and the control group consisted of 31 healthy male smokers. In all patients, the number of infectious exacerbations over the past year, the result on the dyspnea scale (MRC), and the FEV1-to- predicted FEV1 ratio was assessed. The A pattern of behavior was measured using the Type A scale. To measure impulsivity, risk propensity, and empathy, the IVE impulsivity questionnaire was used. RESULTS An increase in the number of infectious exacerbations was associated with an increased score on the Type A scale, an increase in risk propensity, and a decrease in impulsivity score. Increased severity of dyspnea was associated with an increase in Type A behavior pattern score and an increase in the risk propensity score. CONCLUSIONS Type A behavior pattern and risk propensity are independent predictors of the number of infections in the last year and of the subjective severity of dyspnea among men with COPD and healthy male smokers.

Assessment of burnout among health workers and bankers in Aba south local government area, Abia state, South East Nigeria.

PubMed

Aguwa, E N; Nduka, I; Arinze-Onyia, S U

2014-01-01

To determine the prevalence of burnout among health workers and bankers in Aba South Local Government Area in Abia State. A cross-sectional, descriptive study was carried out in 2013 among health workers and bankers in Aba metropolis. By multistage sampling method, proportionate number of the health workers and bankers were selected. The study instrument was Freudenberger Burnout Scale. A total of 327 health workers and bankers were studied: 253 (77.4%) were health workers while 74 (22.6%) were bankers. The age range was 21 to 59 years, and 229 (70.0%) were females. Most (48.3%) had worked for 5 years or less and had burnout scores within 0-25. There was significant difference between gender ( P = 0.017), level of education ( P = 0.038), and type of occupation ( P = 0.002) to burnout score. Age ( P = 0.956), marital status ( P = 0.461), and years of work ( P = 0.247) did not significantly affect burnout score. Female health workers were significantly more at risk of burning out compared to their male counterparts. Among bankers, however, though females were more at risk, this was not significant. Sex, level of education and type of work were the greatest contributors to burnout score. The prevalence of burnout risk among health workers and bankers is high. More female health workers are at risk of burnout than male health workers. There should be policies aimed at identifying those most at risk and reducing the prevalence.

Proposed Project Selection Method for Human Support Research and Technology Development (HSR&TD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry

2005-01-01

The purpose of HSR&TD is to deliver human support technologies to the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) that will be selected for future missions. This requires identifying promising candidate technologies and advancing them in technology readiness until they are acceptable. HSR&TD must select an may of technology development projects, guide them, and either terminate or continue them, so as to maximize the resulting number of usable advanced human support technologies. This paper proposes an effective project scoring methodology to support managing the HSR&TD project portfolio. Researchers strongly disagree as to what are the best technology project selection methods, or even if there are any proven ones. Technology development is risky and outstanding achievements are rare and unpredictable. There is no simple formula for success. Organizations that are satisfied with their project selection approach typically use a mix of financial, strategic, and scoring methods in an open, established, explicit, formal process. This approach helps to build consensus and develop management insight. It encourages better project proposals by clarifying the desired project attributes. We propose a project scoring technique based on a method previously used in a federal laboratory and supported by recent research. Projects are ranked by their perceived relevance, risk, and return - a new 3 R's. Relevance is the degree to which the project objective supports the HSR&TD goal of developing usable advanced human support technologies. Risk is the estimated probability that the project will achieve its specific objective. Return is the reduction in mission life cycle cost obtained if the project is successful. If the project objective technology performs a new function with no current cost, its return is the estimated cash value of performing the new function. The proposed project selection scoring method includes definitions of the criteria, a project evaluation questionnaire, and a scoring formula.

Three methods for integration of environmental risk into the benefit-risk assessment of veterinary medicinal products.

PubMed

Chapman, Jennifer L; Porsch, Lucas; Vidaurre, Rodrigo; Backhaus, Thomas; Sinclair, Chris; Jones, Glyn; Boxall, Alistair B A

2017-12-15

Veterinary medicinal products (VMPs) require, as part of the European Union (EU) authorization process, consideration of both risks and benefits. Uses of VMPs have multiple risks (e.g., risks to the animal being treated, to the person administering the VMP) including risks to the environment. Environmental risks are not directly comparable to therapeutic benefits; there is no standardized approach to compare both environmental risks and therapeutic benefits. We have developed three methods for communicating and comparing therapeutic benefits and environmental risks for the benefit-risk assessment that supports the EU authorization process. Two of these methods support independent product evaluation (i.e., a summative classification and a visual scoring matrix classification); the other supports a comparative evaluation between alternative products (i.e., a comparative classification). The methods and the challenges to implementing a benefit-risk assessment including environmental risk are presented herein; how these concepts would work in current policy is discussed. Adaptability to scientific and policy development is considered. This work is an initial step in the development of a standardized methodology for integrated decision-making for VMPs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent development of risk-prediction models for incident hypertension: An updated systematic review

PubMed Central

Xiao, Lei; Liu, Ya; Wang, Zuoguang; Li, Chuang; Jin, Yongxin; Zhao, Qiong

2017-01-01

Background Hypertension is a leading global health threat and a major cardiovascular disease. Since clinical interventions are effective in delaying the disease progression from prehypertension to hypertension, diagnostic prediction models to identify patient populations at high risk for hypertension are imperative. Methods Both PubMed and Embase databases were searched for eligible reports of either prediction models or risk scores of hypertension. The study data were collected, including risk factors, statistic methods, characteristics of study design and participants, performance measurement, etc. Results From the searched literature, 26 studies reporting 48 prediction models were selected. Among them, 20 reports studied the established models using traditional risk factors, such as body mass index (BMI), age, smoking, blood pressure (BP) level, parental history of hypertension, and biochemical factors, whereas 6 reports used genetic risk score (GRS) as the prediction factor. AUC ranged from 0.64 to 0.97, and C-statistic ranged from 60% to 90%. Conclusions The traditional models are still the predominant risk prediction models for hypertension, but recently, more models have begun to incorporate genetic factors as part of their model predictors. However, these genetic predictors need to be well selected. The current reported models have acceptable to good discrimination and calibration ability, but whether the models can be applied in clinical practice still needs more validation and adjustment. PMID:29084293

Genetic markers enhance coronary risk prediction in men: the MORGAM prospective cohorts.

PubMed

Hughes, Maria F; Saarela, Olli; Stritzke, Jan; Kee, Frank; Silander, Kaisa; Klopp, Norman; Kontto, Jukka; Karvanen, Juha; Willenborg, Christina; Salomaa, Veikko; Virtamo, Jarmo; Amouyel, Phillippe; Arveiler, Dominique; Ferrières, Jean; Wiklund, Per-Gunner; Baumert, Jens; Thorand, Barbara; Diemert, Patrick; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Hengstenberg, Christian; Peters, Annette; Evans, Alun; Koenig, Wolfgang; Erdmann, Jeanette; Samani, Nilesh J; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Schunkert, Heribert

2012-01-01

More accurate coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction, specifically in middle-aged men, is needed to reduce the burden of disease more effectively. We hypothesised that a multilocus genetic risk score could refine CHD prediction beyond classic risk scores and obtain more precise risk estimates using a prospective cohort design. Using data from nine prospective European cohorts, including 26,221 men, we selected in a case-cohort setting 4,818 healthy men at baseline, and used Cox proportional hazards models to examine associations between CHD and risk scores based on genetic variants representing 13 genomic regions. Over follow-up (range: 5-18 years), 1,736 incident CHD events occurred. Genetic risk scores were validated in men with at least 10 years of follow-up (632 cases, 1361 non-cases). Genetic risk score 1 (GRS1) combined 11 SNPs and two haplotypes, with effect estimates from previous genome-wide association studies. GRS2 combined 11 SNPs plus 4 SNPs from the haplotypes with coefficients estimated from these prospective cohorts using 10-fold cross-validation. Scores were added to a model adjusted for classic risk factors comprising the Framingham risk score and 10-year risks were derived. Both scores improved net reclassification (NRI) over the Framingham score (7.5%, p = 0.017 for GRS1, 6.5%, p = 0.044 for GRS2) but GRS2 also improved discrimination (c-index improvement 1.11%, p = 0.048). Subgroup analysis on men aged 50-59 (436 cases, 603 non-cases) improved net reclassification for GRS1 (13.8%) and GRS2 (12.5%). Net reclassification improvement remained significant for both scores when family history of CHD was added to the baseline model for this male subgroup improving prediction of early onset CHD events. Genetic risk scores add precision to risk estimates for CHD and improve prediction beyond classic risk factors, particularly for middle aged men.

A community study on emotional distress among Arab and Jewish Israelis over the age of 60.

PubMed

Shemesh, Annarosa Anat; Kohn, Robert; Blumstein, Tzvia; Geraisy, Nabil; Novikov, Ilya; Levav, Itzhak

2006-01-01

The elderly constitute a vulnerable group for psychopathology, yet research on their mental health among both Arab and Jews in Israel remains limited. The same is the case in Arab countries. This paper reports on the contrasting distribution of the mean emotional distress (ED) scores and rates of suspected clinical cases, and their related risk factors, among community residents over the age of 60. Several national agencies conducted a survey on 5,055 elderly individuals to investigate their health status, including ED. The interview included socio-demographic and behavioral health items, as well as a modified 12 item-GHQ as a measure of ED. Total ED scores and prevalence rates for suspected psychopathology were calculated. Their respective risk factors were examined using univariate and multivariate methods. The ED scores were highest among Muslim Arabs (4.9), followed by Christian Arabs (4.2), Jews (3.1) and Druzes (2.8). Their estimated prevalence rates were 43.4%, 37.0%, 21.4%, and 17.0%, respectively. The gradient of these results remained unchanged in the multivariate analysis for ED scores adjusting for confounding variables. In contrast, logistic regression analysis controlling for confounding variables did not find a differential risk for suspected psychopathology between Arabs and Jews. Conceivably, the higher demoralization scores among elderly Arabs are associated with their minority status affiliation, as well as with the rapid social changes that have taken place in their midst. A cultural response style may be entertained as a possible explanation. However, these factors do not impact the risk for suspected psychopathology where no differential risk was noted after adjustments for confounders. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk prediction score for death of traumatised and injured children

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Injury prediction scores facilitate the development of clinical management protocols to decrease mortality. However, most of the previously developed scores are limited in scope and are non-specific for use in children. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model of death for injured and Traumatised Thai children. Methods Our cross-sectional study included 43,516 injured children from 34 emergency services. A risk prediction model was derived using a logistic regression analysis that included 15 predictors. Model performance was assessed using the concordance statistic (C-statistic) and the observed per expected (O/E) ratio. Internal validation of the model was performed using a 200-repetition bootstrap analysis. Results Death occurred in 1.7% of the injured children (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.57–1.82). Ten predictors (i.e., age, airway intervention, physical injury mechanism, three injured body regions, the Glasgow Coma Scale, and three vital signs) were significantly associated with death. The C-statistic and the O/E ratio were 0.938 (95% CI: 0.929–0.947) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.70–1.02), respectively. The scoring scheme classified three risk stratifications with respective likelihood ratios of 1.26 (95% CI: 1.25–1.27), 2.45 (95% CI: 2.42–2.52), and 4.72 (95% CI: 4.57–4.88) for low, intermediate, and high risks of death. Internal validation showed good model performance (C-statistic = 0.938, 95% CI: 0.926–0.952) and a small calibration bias of 0.002 (95% CI: 0.0005–0.003). Conclusions We developed a simplified Thai pediatric injury death prediction score with satisfactory calibrated and discriminative performance in emergency room settings. PMID:24575982

Dietary inflammatory index and risk of lung cancer and other respiratory conditions among heavy smokers in the COSMOS screening study

PubMed Central

Shivappa, Nitin; Hébert, James R.; Bellomi, Massimo; Rampinelli, Cristiano; Bertolotti, Raffaella; Spaggiari, Lorenzo; Palli, Domenico; Veronesi, Giulia; Gnagnarella, Patrizia

2016-01-01

Purpose To test whether the inflammatory potential of diet, as measured using the dietary inflammatory index (DII), is associated with risk of lung cancer or other respiratory conditions and to compare results obtained with those based on the aMED score, an established dietary index that measures adherence to the traditional Mediterranean diet. Methods In 4336 heavy smokers enrolled in a prospective, non-randomized lung cancer screening program, we measured participants’ diets at baseline using a self-administered food frequency questionnaire from which dietary scores were calculated. Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models were used to assess association between the dietary indices and lung cancer diagnosed during annual screening, and other respiratory outcomes that were recorded at baseline, respectively. Results In multivariable analysis, adjusted for baseline lung cancer risk (estimated from age, sex, smoking history, and asbestos exposure) and total energy, both DII and aMED scores were associated with dyspnoea (p trend = 0.046 and 0.02, respectively) and radiological evidence of emphysema (p trend = 0.0002 and 0.02). After mutual adjustment of the two dietary scores, only the association between DII and radiological evidence of emphysema (Q4 vs. Q1, OR 1.30, 95 % CI 1.01–1.67, p trend = 0.012) remained statistically significant. At univariate analysis, both DII and aMED were associated with lung cancer risk, but in fully adjusted multivariate analysis, only the association with aMED remained statistically significant (p trend = 0.04). Conclusions Among heavy smokers, a pro-inflammatory diet, as indicated by increasing DII score, is associated with dyspnoea and radiological evidence of emphysema. A traditional Mediterranean diet, which is associated with a lower DII, may lower lung cancer risk. PMID:25953452

Carotid Artery Stiffness, Digital Endothelial Function, and Coronary Calcium in Patients with Essential Thrombocytosis, Free of Overt Atherosclerotic Disease

PubMed Central

Vrtovec, Matjaz; Anzic, Ajda; Zupan, Irena Preloznik; Zaletel, Katja

2017-01-01

Abstract Background Patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are at increased risk for atherothrombotic events. Our aim was to determine if patients with essential thrombocytosis (ET), a subtype of MPNs, free of symptomatic atherosclerosis, have greater carotid artery stiffness, worse endothelial function, greater coronary calcium and carotid plaque burden than control subjects. Patients and methods 40 ET patients without overt vascular disease, and 42 apparently healthy, age and sex-matched control subjects with comparable classical risk factors for atherosclerosis and Framingham risk of coronary disease were enrolled. All subjects were examined by physical and laboratory testing, carotid echo-tracking ultrasound, digital EndoPat pletysmography and CT coronary calcium scoring. Results No significant differences were found between ET patients and controls in carotid plaque score [1 (0-1.25) vs. 0 (0-2), p=0.30], β- index of carotid stiffness [7.75 (2.33) vs. 8.44 (2,81), p=0.23], pulse wave velocity [6,21 (1,00) vs. 6.45 (1.04) m/s; p=0.46], digital reactive hyperemia index [2.10 (0.57) vs. 2.35 (0.62), p=0.07], or augmentation index [19 (3-30) vs. 13 (5-22) %, p=0.38]. Overall coronary calcium burden did not differ between groups [Agatston score 0.1 (0-16.85) vs. 0 (0-8.55), p=0.26]. However, significantly more ET patients had an elevated coronary calcium score of >160 [6/40 vs. 0/42, p < 0.01]. Conclusions No significant differences between groups were found in carotid artery morphology and function, digital endothelial function or overall coronary calcium score. Significantly more ET patients had an elevated coronary calcium score of >160, indicating high cardiovascular risk, not predicted by the Framingham equation. PMID:28740456

The flaws in the detail of an observational study on transcatheter aortic valve implantation versus surgical aortic valve replacement in intermediate-risks patients.

PubMed

Barili, Fabio; Freemantle, Nick; Folliguet, Thierry; Muneretto, Claudio; De Bonis, Michele; Czerny, Martin; Obadia, Jean Francois; Al-Attar, Nawwar; Bonaros, Nikolaos; Kluin, Jolanda; Lorusso, Roberto; Punjabi, Prakash; Sadaba, Rafael; Suwalski, Piotr; Benedetto, Umberto; Böning, Andreas; Falk, Volkmar; Sousa-Uva, Miguel; Kappetein, Pieter A; Menicanti, Lorenzo

2017-06-01

The PARTNER group recently published a comparison between the latest generation SAPIEN 3 transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) system (Edwards Lifesciences, Irvine, CA, USA) and surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) in intermediate-risk patients, apparently demonstrating superiority of the TAVI and suggesting that TAVI might be the preferred treatment method in this risk class of patients. Nonetheless, assessment of the non-randomized methodology used in this comparison reveals challenges that should be addressed in order to elucidate the validity of the results. The study by Thourani and colleagues showed several major methodological concerns: suboptimal methods in propensity score analysis with evident misspecification of the propensity scores (PS; no adjustment for the most significantly different covariates: left ventricular ejection fraction, moderate-severe mitral regurgitation and associated procedures); use of PS quintiles rather than matching; inference on not-adjusted Kaplan-Meier curves, although the authors correctly claimed for the need of balancing score adjusting for confounding factors in order to have unbiased estimates of the treatment effect; evidence of poor fit; lack of data on valve-related death.These methodological flaws invalidate direct comparison between treatments and cannot support authors' conclusions that TAVI with SAPIEN 3 in intermediate-risk patients is superior to surgery and might be the preferred treatment alternative to surgery. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Cardiac risk stratification: Role of the coronary calcium score

PubMed Central

Sharma, Rakesh K; Sharma, Rajiv K; Voelker, Donald J; Singh, Vibhuti N; Pahuja, Deepak; Nash, Teresa; Reddy, Hanumanth K

2010-01-01

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an integral part of atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD is the leading cause of death in industrialized nations and there is a constant effort to develop preventative strategies. The emphasis is on risk stratification and primary risk prevention in asymptomatic patients to decrease cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. The Framingham Risk Score predicts CHD events only moderately well where family history is not included as a risk factor. There has been an exploration for new tests for better risk stratification and risk factor modification. While the Framingham Risk Score, European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project, and European Prospective Cardiovascular Munster study remain excellent tools for risk factor modification, the CAC score may have additional benefit in risk assessment. There have been several studies supporting the role of CAC score for prediction of myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality. It has been shown to have great scope in risk stratification of asymptomatic patients in the emergency room. Additionally, it may help in assessment of progression or regression of coronary artery disease. Furthermore, the CAC score may help differentiate ischemic from nonischemic cardiomyopathy. PMID:20730016

Childhood Psychosocial Cumulative Risks and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

PubMed Central

Hakulinen, Christian; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Elovainio, Marko; Kubzansky, Laura D.; Jokela, Markus; Hintsanen, Mirka; Juonala, Markus; Kivimäki, Mika; Josefsson, Kim; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Raitakari, Olli T

2015-01-01

Objective Adverse experiences in childhood may influence cardiovascular risk in adulthood. We examined the prospective associations between types of psychosocial adversity as well as having multiple adversities (e.g., cumulative risk) with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and its progression among young adults. Higher cumulative risk score in childhood was expected to be associated with higher IMT and its progression. Methods Participants were 2265 men and women (age range: 24-39 years in 2001) from the on-going Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study whose carotid IMT were measured in 2001 and 2007. A cumulative psychosocial risk score, assessed at the study baseline in 1980, was derived from four separate aspects of the childhood environment that may impose risk (childhood stressful life-events, parental health behavior family, socioeconomic status, and childhood emotional environment). Results The cumulative risk score was associated with higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.001; p<.001) and increased IMT progression from 2001 to 2007 (b=.003; se=.001; p=.001). The associations were robust to adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors in childhood and adulthood, including adulthood health behavior, adulthood socioeconomic status and depressive symptoms. Among the individual childhood psychosocial risk categories, having more stressful life-events was associated with higher IMT in 2001 (b=.007; se=.003; p=.016) and poorer parental health behavior predicted higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.002; p=.031) after adjustment for age, sex and childhood cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions Early life psychosocial environment influences cardiovascular risk later in life and considering cumulative childhood risk factors may be more informative than individual factors in predicting progression of preclinical atherosclerosis in adulthood. PMID:26809108

High Loading of Polygenic Risk for ADHD in Children With Comorbid Aggression

PubMed Central

Hamshere, Marian L.; Langley, Kate; Martin, Joanna; Agha, Sharifah Shameem; Stergiakouli, Evangelia; Anney, Richard J.L.; Buitelaar, Jan; Faraone, Stephen V.; Lesch, Klaus-Peter; Neale, Benjamin M.; Franke, Barbara; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Asherson, Philip; Merwood, Andrew; Kuntsi, Jonna; Medland, Sarah E.; Ripke, Stephan; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Freitag, Christine; Reif, Andreas; Renner, Tobias J.; Romanos, Marcel; Romanos, Jasmin; Warnke, Andreas; Meyer, Jobst; Palmason, Haukur; Vasquez, Alejandro Arias; Lambregts-Rommelse, Nanda; Roeyers, Herbert; Biederman, Joseph; Doyle, Alysa E.; Hakonarson, Hakon; Rothenberger, Aribert; Banaschewski, Tobias; Oades, Robert D.; McGough, James J.; Kent, Lindsey; Williams, Nigel; Owen, Michael J.; Holmans, Peter

2013-01-01

Objective Although attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is highly heritable, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have not yet identified any common genetic variants that contribute to risk. There is evidence that aggression or conduct disorder in children with ADHD indexes higher genetic loading and clinical severity. The authors examine whether common genetic variants considered en masse as polygenic scores for ADHD are especially enriched in children with comorbid conduct disorder. Method Polygenic scores derived from an ADHD GWAS meta-analysis were calculated in an independent ADHD sample (452 case subjects, 5,081 comparison subjects). Multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to compare polygenic scores in the ADHD and comparison groups and test for higher scores in ADHD case subjects with comorbid conduct disorder relative to comparison subjects and relative to those without comorbid conduct disorder. Association with symptom scores was tested using linear regression. Results Polygenic risk for ADHD, derived from the meta-analysis, was higher in the independent ADHD group than in the comparison group. Polygenic score was significantly higher in ADHD case subjects with conduct disorder relative to ADHD case subjects without conduct disorder. ADHD polygenic score showed significant association with comorbid conduct disorder symptoms. This relationship was explained by the aggression items. Conclusions Common genetic variation is relevant to ADHD, especially in individuals with comorbid aggression. The findings suggest that the previously published ADHD GWAS meta-analysis contains weak but true associations with common variants, support for which falls below genome-wide significance levels. The findings also highlight the fact that aggression in ADHD indexes genetic as well as clinical severity. PMID:23599091

The evaluation of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score, poisoning severity score, sequential organ failure assessment score combine with lactate to assess the prognosis of the patients with acute organophosphate pesticide poisoning.

PubMed

Yuan, Shaoxin; Gao, Yusong; Ji, Wenqing; Song, Junshuai; Mei, Xue

2018-05-01

The aim of this study was to assess the ability of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, poisoning severity score (PSS) as well as sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score combining with lactate (Lac) to predict mortality in the Emergency Department (ED) patients who were poisoned with organophosphate.A retrospective review of 59 stands-compliant patients was carried out. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed based on the APACHE II score, PSS, SOFA score with or without Lac, respectively, and the areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) were determined to assess predictive value. According to SOFA-Lac (a combination of SOFA and Lac) classification standard, acute organophosphate pesticide poisoning (AOPP) patients were divided into low-risk and high-risk groups. Then mortality rates were compared between risk levels.Between survivors and non-survivors, there were significant differences in the APACHE II score, PSS, SOFA score, and Lac (all P < .05). The AUCs of the APACHE II score, PSS, and SOFA score were 0.876, 0.811, and 0.837, respectively. However, after combining with Lac, the AUCs were 0.922, 0.878, and 0.956, respectively. According to SOFA-Lac, the mortality of high-risk group was significantly higher than low-risk group (P < .05) and the patients of the non-survival group were all at high risk.These data suggest the APACHE II score, PSS, SOFA score can all predict the prognosis of AOPP patients. For its simplicity and objectivity, the SOFA score is a superior predictor. Lac significantly improved the predictive abilities of the 3 scoring systems, especially for the SOFA score. The SOFA-Lac system effectively distinguished the high-risk group from the low-risk group. Therefore, the SOFA-Lac system is significantly better at predicting mortality in AOPP patients.

Association of Practice-Level Social and Medical Risk With Performance in the Medicare Physician Value-Based Payment Modifier Program

PubMed Central

Epstein, Arnold M.; Orav, E. John; Filice, Clara E.; Samson, Lok Wong; Joynt Maddox, Karen E.

2017-01-01

Importance Medicare recently launched the Physician Value-Based Payment Modifier (PVBM) Program, a mandatory pay-for-performance program for physician practices. Little is known about performance by practices that serve socially or medically high-risk patients. Objective To compare performance in the PVBM Program by practice characteristics. Design, Setting, and Participants Cross-sectional observational study using PVBM Program data for payments made in 2015 based on performance of large US physician practices caring for fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries in 2013. Exposures High social risk (defined as practices in the top quartile of proportion of patients dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid) and high medical risk (defined as practices in the top quartile of mean Hierarchical Condition Category risk score among fee-for-service beneficiaries). Main Outcomes and Measures Quality and cost z scores based on a composite of individual measures. Higher z scores reflect better performance on quality; lower scores, better performance on costs. Results Among 899 physician practices with 5 189 880 beneficiaries, 547 practices were categorized as low risk (neither high social nor high medical risk) (mean, 7909 beneficiaries; mean, 320 clinicians), 128 were high medical risk only (mean, 3675 beneficiaries; mean, 370 clinicians), 102 were high social risk only (mean, 1635 beneficiaries; mean, 284 clinicians), and 122 were high medical and social risk (mean, 1858 beneficiaries; mean, 269 clinicians). Practices categorized as low risk performed the best on the composite quality score (z score, 0.18 [95% CI, 0.09 to 0.28]) compared with each of the practices categorized as high risk (high medical risk only: z score, −0.55 [95% CI, −0.77 to −0.32]; high social risk only: z score, −0.86 [95% CI, −1.17 to −0.54]; and high medical and social risk: −0.78 [95% CI, −1.04 to −0.51]) (P < .001 across groups). Practices categorized as high social risk only performed the best on the composite cost score (z score, −0.52 [95% CI, −0.71 to −0.33]), low risk had the next best cost score (z score, −0.18 [95% CI, −0.25 to −0.10]), then high medical and social risk (z score, 0.40 [95% CI, 0.23 to 0.57]), and then high medical risk only (z score, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.65 to 0.99]) (P < .001 across groups). Total per capita costs were $9506 for practices categorized as low risk, $13 683 for high medical risk only, $8214 for high social risk only, and $11 692 for high medical and social risk. These patterns were associated with fewer bonuses and more penalties for high-risk practices. Conclusions and Relevance During the first year of the Medicare Physician Value-Based Payment Modifier Program, physician practices that served more socially high-risk patients had lower quality and lower costs, and practices that served more medically high-risk patients had lower quality and higher costs. PMID:28763549

High prevalence of bacteriuria in pregnancy and its screening methods in north India.

PubMed

Bandyopadhyay, Sutapa; Thakur, J S; Ray, Pallab; Kumar, Rajesh

2005-05-01

The study aims at finding out the prevalence of bacteruria in pregnancy in an urban setting and ascertaining methods to screen them in primary care clinics. A total of 1 61 pregnant ladies visiting a primary care clinic were screened for bacteriuria based on the symptomatology. Urine culture was done to know the prevalence of bacteriuria. Sensitivities and specificities were calculated for each symptom and risk assessment. A score card was developed based on combination of positive risk assessment and constellation of symptoms. Prevalence of symptomatic and asymptomatic bacteriuria was found to be 19.87% and 4.34% respectively. Prevalence of bacteriuria was significantly high among those who had intercourse more frequently and those with less water intake. Those with a score of more than or equal to 4, as per score card were 60% more likely to suffer from bacteriuria. When combined with microscopic examination for leucocytes on positively screened, the positive predictive value was found to be 89%. It is concluded that prevalence of symptomatic bacteriuria is common among pregnant women. Syndromic management of cases on the basis of score card is helpful in resource constraint areas. This may be combined with microscopic examination of urine to entail rational use of antibiotics.

Clinical Utility of a Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Gene Score in UK Healthy Middle Aged Men and in the Pakistani Population

PubMed Central

Beaney, Katherine E.; Cooper, Jackie A.; Ullah Shahid, Saleem; Ahmed, Waqas; Qamar, Raheel; Drenos, Fotios; Crockard, Martin A.; Humphries, Steve E.

2015-01-01

Background Numerous risk prediction algorithms based on conventional risk factors for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) are available but provide only modest discrimination. The inclusion of genetic information may improve clinical utility. Methods We tested the use of two gene scores (GS) in the prospective second Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHSII) of 2775 healthy UK men (284 cases), and Pakistani case-control studies from Islamabad/Rawalpindi (321 cases/228 controls) and Lahore (414 cases/219 controls). The 19-SNP GS included SNPs in loci identified by GWAS and candidate gene studies, while the 13-SNP GS only included SNPs in loci identified by the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium. Results In NPHSII, the mean of both gene scores was higher in those who went on to develop CHD over 13.5 years of follow-up (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=7x10-3). In combination with the Framingham algorithm the GSs appeared to show improvement in discrimination (increase in area under the ROC curve, 19-SNP p=0.48, 13-SNP p=0.82) and risk classification (net reclassification improvement (NRI), 19-SNP p=0.28, 13-SNP p=0.42) compared to the Framingham algorithm alone, but these were not statistically significant. When considering only individuals who moved up a risk category with inclusion of the GS, the improvement in risk classification was statistically significant (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=0.04). In the Pakistani samples, risk allele frequencies were significantly lower compared to NPHSII for 13/19 SNPs. In the Islamabad study, the mean gene score was higher in cases than controls only for the 13-SNP GS (2.24 v 2.34, p=0.04). There was no association with CHD and either score in the Lahore study. Conclusion The performance of both GSs showed potential clinical utility in European men but much less utility in subjects from Pakistan, suggesting that a different set of risk loci or SNPs may be required for risk prediction in the South Asian population. PMID:26133560

Use of an HIV-risk screening tool to identify optimal candidates for PrEP scale-up among men who have sex with men in Toronto, Canada: disconnect between objective and subjective HIV risk

PubMed Central

Wilton, James; Kain, Taylor; Fowler, Shawn; Hart, Trevor A; Grennan, Troy; Maxwell, John; Tan, Darrell HS

2016-01-01

Introduction Identifying appropriate pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) candidates is a challenge in planning for the safe and effective roll-out of this strategy. We explored the use of a validated HIV risk screening tool, HIV Incidence Risk Index for Men who have Sex with Men (HIRI-MSM), to identify “optimal” candidates among MSM testing at a busy sexual health clinic's community testing sites in Toronto, Canada. Methods Between November 2014 and April 2015, we surveyed MSM undergoing anonymous HIV testing at community testing sites in Toronto, Canada, to quantify “optimal” candidates for scaling up PrEP roll-out, defined as being at high objective HIV risk (scoring ≥10 on the HIRI-MSM), perceiving oneself at moderate-to-high HIV risk and being willing to use PrEP. Cascades were constructed to identify barriers to broader PrEP uptake. The association between HIRI-MSM score and both willingness to use PrEP and perceived HIV risk were explored in separate multivariable logistic regression analyses. Results Of 420 respondents, 64.4% were objectively at high risk, 52.5% were willing to use PrEP and 27.2% perceived themselves at moderate-to-high HIV risk. Only 16.4% were “optimal” candidates. Higher HIRI-MSM scores were positively associated with both willingness to use PrEP (aOR=1.7 per 10 score increase, 95%CI=1.3–2.2) and moderate-to-high perceived HIV risk (aOR=1.7 per 10 score increase, 95%CI=1.2–2.3). The proportion of men who were “optimal” candidates increased to 42.9% when the objective HIV risk cut-off was changed to top quartile of HIRI-MSM scores (≥26). In our full cascade, a very low proportion (5.3%) of MSM surveyed could potentially benefit from PrEP under current conditions. The greatest barrier in the cascade was low perception of HIV risk among high-risk men, but considerable numbers were also lost in downstream cascade steps. Of men at high objective HIV risk, 68.3% did not perceive themselves to be at moderate-to-high HIV risk, 23.6% were unaware of PrEP, 40.1% were not willing to use PrEP, 47.6% lacked a family physician with whom they felt comfortable discussing sexual health, and 31.6% had no means to cover the cost of PrEP. Conclusions A higher HIRI-MSM cut-off may be helpful for identifying candidates for PrEP scale-up. Improving engagement in the PrEP cascade will require interventions to simultaneously address multiple barriers. PMID:27265490

Optimal Utilization of Donor Grafts With Extended Criteria

PubMed Central

Cameron, Andrew M.; Ghobrial, R Mark; Yersiz, Hasan; Farmer, Douglas G.; Lipshutz, Gerald S.; Gordon, Sherilyn A.; Zimmerman, Michael; Hong, Johnny; Collins, Thomas E.; Gornbein, Jeffery; Amersi, Farin; Weaver, Michael; Cao, Carlos; Chen, Tony; Hiatt, Jonathan R.; Busuttil, Ronald W.

2006-01-01

Objective: Severely limited organ resources mandate maximum utilization of donor allografts for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). This work aimed to identify factors that impact survival outcomes for extended criteria donors (ECD) and developed an ECD scoring system to facilitate graft-recipient matching and optimize utilization of ECDs. Methods: Retrospective analysis of over 1000 primary adult OLTs at UCLA. Extended criteria (EC) considered included donor age (>55 years), donor hospital stay (>5 days), cold ischemia time (>10 hours), and warm ischemia time (>40 minutes). One point was assigned for each extended criterion. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for multivariate analysis. Results: Of 1153 allografts considered in the study, 568 organs exhibited no extended criteria (0 score), while 429, 135 and 21 donor allografts exhibited an EC score of 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Overall 1-year patient survival rates were 88%, 82%, 77% and 48% for recipients with EC scores of 0, 1, 2 and 3 respectively (P < 0.001). Adjusting for recipient age and urgency at the time of transplantation, multivariate analysis identified an ascending mortality risk ratio of 1.4 and 1.8 compared to a score of 0 for an EC score of 1, and 2 (P < 0.01) respectively. In contrast, an EC score of 3 was associated with a mortality risk ratio of 4.5 (P < 0.001). Further, advanced recipient age linearly increased the death hazard ratio, while an urgent recipient status increased the risk ratio of death by 50%. Conclusions: Extended criteria donors can be scored using readily available parameters. Optimizing perioperative variables and matching ECD allografts to appropriately selected recipients are crucial to maintain acceptable outcomes and represent a preferable alternative to both high waiting list mortality and to a potentially futile transplant that utilizes an ECD for a critically ill recipient. PMID:16772778

Risk assessment and risk scores in the management of aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Von Meijenfeldt, Gerdine C I; Van Der Laan, Maarten J; Zeebregts, Clark J; Balm, Ron; Verhagen, Hence J M

2016-04-01

The decision whether to operate a patient or not can be challenging for a clinician for both ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) as well as elective AAAs. Prior to surgical intervention it would be preferable that the clinician exactly knows which clinical variables lower or increase the chances of morbidity and mortality postintervention. To help in the preoperative counselling and shared decision making several clinical variables can be identified as risk factors and with these, risk models can be developed. An ideal risk score for aneurysm repair includes routinely obtained physiological and anatomical variables, has excellent discrimination and calibration, and is validated in different geographical areas. For elective AAA repair, several risk scores are available, for ruptured AAA treatment, these scores are far less well developed. In this manuscript, we describe the designs and results of published risk scores for elective and open repair. Also, suggestions for uniformly reporting of risk factors and their statistical analyses are described. Furthermore, the preliminary results of a new risk model for ruptured aortic aneurysm will be discussed. This score identifies age, hemoglobin, cardiopulmonary resuscitation and preoperative systolic blood pressure as risk factors after multivariate regression analysis. This new risk score can help to identify patients that would not benefit from repair, but it can also potentially identify patients who would benefit and therefore lower turndown rates. The challenge for further research is to expand on validation of already existing promising risk scores in order to come to a risk model with optimal discrimination and calibration.

Development of a Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS) for Predicting Osteoporotic Fracture Risk: Analysis of Data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service

PubMed Central

Jang, Eun Jin; Park, ByeongJu; Kim, Tae-Young; Shin, Soon-Ae

2016-01-01

Background Asian-specific prediction models for estimating individual risk of osteoporotic fractures are rare. We developed a Korean fracture risk prediction model using clinical risk factors and assessed validity of the final model. Methods A total of 718,306 Korean men and women aged 50–90 years were followed for 7 years in a national system-based cohort study. In total, 50% of the subjects were assigned randomly to the development dataset and 50% were assigned to the validation dataset. Clinical risk factors for osteoporotic fracture were assessed at the biennial health check. Data on osteoporotic fractures during the follow-up period were identified by ICD-10 codes and the nationwide database of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS). Results During the follow-up period, 19,840 osteoporotic fractures were reported (4,889 in men and 14,951 in women) in the development dataset. The assessment tool called the Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS) is comprised of a set of nine variables, including age, body mass index, recent fragility fracture, current smoking, high alcohol intake, lack of regular exercise, recent use of oral glucocorticoid, rheumatoid arthritis, and other causes of secondary osteoporosis. The KFRS predicted osteoporotic fractures over the 7 years. This score was validated using an independent dataset. A close relationship with overall fracture rate was observed when we compared the mean predicted scores after applying the KFRS with the observed risks after 7 years within each 10th of predicted risk. Conclusion We developed a Korean specific prediction model for osteoporotic fractures. The KFRS was able to predict risk of fracture in the primary population without bone mineral density testing and is therefore suitable for use in both clinical setting and self-assessment. The website is available at http://www.nhis.or.kr. PMID:27399597

Use of Influenza Risk Assessment Tool for Prepandemic Preparedness

PubMed Central

Trock, Susan C.

2018-01-01

In 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began to develop an Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) to methodically capture and assess information relating to influenza A viruses not currently circulating among humans. The IRAT uses a multiattribute, additive model to generate a summary risk score for each virus. Although the IRAT is not intended to predict the next pandemic influenza A virus, it has provided input into prepandemic preparedness decisions. PMID:29460739

The utility of diabetes risk score items as predictors of incident type 2 diabetes in Asian populations: An evidence-based review.

PubMed

Hu, Pei Lin; Koh, Yi Ling Eileen; Tan, Ngiap Chuan

2016-12-01

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus is rising, with many Asian countries featured in the top 10 countries with the highest numbers of persons with diabetes. Reliable diabetes risk scores enable the identification of individuals at risk of developing diabetes for early intervention. This article aims to identify common risk factors in the risk scores with the highest discrimination; factors with the most influence on the risk score in Asian populations, and to propose a set of factors translatable to the multi-ethnic Singapore population. A systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE databases was conducted to identify studies published before August 2016 that developed risk prediction models for incident diabetes. 12 studies were identified. Risk scores that included laboratory measurements had better discrimination. Coefficient analysis showed fasting glucose and HbA1c having the greatest impact on the risk score. A proposed Asian risk score would include: family history of diabetes, age, gender, smoking status, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, fasting plasma glucose, HbA1c, HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides. Future research is required on the influence of ethnicity in Singapore. The risk score may potentially be used to stratify individuals for enrolment into diabetes prevention programmes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increased pulmonary alveolar-capillary permeability in patients at risk for adult respiratory distress syndrome

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tennenberg, S.D.; Jacobs, M.P.; Solomkin, J.S.

1987-04-01

Two methods for predicting adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) were evaluated prospectively in a group of 81 multitrauma and sepsis patients considered at clinical high risk. A popular ARDS risk-scoring method, employing discriminant analysis equations (weighted risk criteria and oxygenation characteristics), yielded a predictive accuracy of 59% and a false-negative rate of 22%. Pulmonary alveolar-capillary permeability (PACP) was determined with a radioaerosol lung-scan technique in 23 of these 81 patients, representing a statistically similar subgroup. Lung scanning achieved a predictive accuracy of 71% (after excluding patients with unilateral pulmonary contusion) and gave no false-negatives. We propose a combination of clinicalmore » risk identification and functional determination of PACP to assess a patient's risk of developing ARDS.« less

Methods to Assess Adverse Childhood Experiences of Children and Families: Toward Approaches to Promote Child Well-being in Policy and Practice.

PubMed

Bethell, Christina D; Carle, Adam; Hudziak, James; Gombojav, Narangerel; Powers, Kathleen; Wade, Roy; Braveman, Paula

Advances in human development sciences point to tremendous possibilities to promote healthy child development and well-being across life by proactively supporting safe, stable and nurturing family relationships (SSNRs), teaching resilience, and intervening early to promote healing the trauma and stress associated with disruptions in SSNRs. Assessing potential disruptions in SSNRs, such as adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), can contribute to assessing risk for trauma and chronic and toxic stress. Asking about ACEs can help with efforts to prevent and attenuate negative impacts on child development and both child and family well-being. Many methods to assess ACEs exist but have not been compared. The National Survey of Children's Health (NSCH) now measures ACEs for children, but requires further assessment and validation. We identified and compared methods to assess ACEs among children and families, evaluated the acceptability and validity of the new NSCH-ACEs measure, and identified implications for assessing ACEs in research and practice. Of 14 ACEs assessment methods identified, 5 have been used in clinical settings (vs public health assessment or research) and all but 1 require self or parent report (3 allow child report). Across methods, 6 to 20 constructs are assessed, 4 of which are common to all: parental incarceration, domestic violence, household mental illness/suicide, household alcohol or substance abuse. Common additional content includes assessing exposure to neighborhood violence, bullying, discrimination, or parental death. All methods use a numeric, cumulative risk scoring methodology. The NSCH-ACEs measure was acceptable to respondents as evidenced by few missing values and no reduction in response rate attributable to asking about children's ACEs. The 9 ACEs assessed in the NSCH co-occur, with most children with 1 ACE having additional ACEs. This measure showed efficiency and confirmatory factor analysis as well as latent class analysis supported a cumulative risk scoring method. Formative as well as reflective measurement models further support cumulative risk scoring and provide evidence of predictive validity of the NSCH-ACEs. Common effects of ACEs across household income groups confirm information distinct from economic status is provided and suggest use of population-wide versus high-risk approaches to assessing ACEs. Although important variations exist, available ACEs measurement methods are similar and show consistent associations with poorer health outcomes in absence of protective factors and resilience. All methods reviewed appear to coincide with broader goals to facilitate health education, promote health and, where needed, to mitigate the trauma, chronic stress, and behavioral and emotional sequelae that can arise with exposure to ACEs. Assessing ACEs appears acceptable to individuals and families when conducted in population-based and clinical research contexts. Although research to date and neurobiological findings compel early identification and health education about ACEs in clinical settings, further research to guide use in pediatric practice is required, especially as it relates to distinguishing ACEs assessment from identifying current family psychosocial risks and child abuse. The reflective as well as formative psychometric analyses conducted in this study confirm use of cumulative risk scoring for the NSCH-ACEs measure. Even if children have not been exposed to ACEs, assessing ACEs has value as an educational tool for engaging and educating families and children about the importance of SSNRs and how to recognize and manage stress and learn resilience. Copyright © 2017 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical risk scoring for predicting non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in metabolic syndrome patients (NAFLD-MS score).

PubMed

Saokaew, Surasak; Kanchanasuwan, Shada; Apisarnthanarak, Piyaporn; Charoensak, Aphinya; Charatcharoenwitthaya, Phunchai; Phisalprapa, Pochamana; Chaiyakunapruk, Nathorn

2017-10-01

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) can progress from simple steatosis to hepatocellular carcinoma. None of tools have been developed specifically for high-risk patients. This study aimed to develop a simple risk scoring to predict NAFLD in patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS). A total of 509 patients with MetS were recruited. All were diagnosed by clinicians with ultrasonography-confirmed whether they were patients with NAFLD. Patients were randomly divided into derivation (n=400) and validation (n=109) cohort. To develop the risk score, clinical risk indicators measured at the time of recruitment were built by logistic regression. Regression coefficients were transformed into item scores and added up to a total score. A risk scoring scheme was developed from clinical predictors: BMI ≥25, AST/ALT ≥1, ALT ≥40, type 2 diabetes mellitus and central obesity. The scoring scheme was applied in validation cohort to test the performance. The scheme explained, by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC), 76.8% of being NAFLD with good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 =4.35; P=.629). The positive likelihood ratio of NAFLD in patients with low risk (scores below 3) and high risk (scores 5 and over) were 2.32 (95% CI: 1.90-2.82) and 7.77 (95% CI: 2.47-24.47) respectively. When applied in validation cohort, the score showed good performance with AuROC 76.7%, and illustrated 84%, and 100% certainty in low- and high-risk groups respectively. A simple and non-invasive scoring scheme of five predictors provides good prediction indices for NAFLD in MetS patients. This scheme may help clinicians in order to take further appropriate action. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Development and Evaluation of an Automated Machine Learning Algorithm for In-Hospital Mortality Risk Adjustment Among Critical Care Patients.

PubMed

Delahanty, Ryan J; Kaufman, David; Jones, Spencer S

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment algorithms for ICU mortality are necessary for measuring and improving ICU performance. Existing risk adjustment algorithms are not widely adopted. Key barriers to adoption include licensing and implementation costs as well as labor costs associated with human-intensive data collection. Widespread adoption of electronic health records makes automated risk adjustment feasible. Using modern machine learning methods and open source tools, we developed and evaluated a retrospective risk adjustment algorithm for in-hospital mortality among ICU patients. The Risk of Inpatient Death score can be fully automated and is reliant upon data elements that are generated in the course of usual hospital processes. One hundred thirty-one ICUs in 53 hospitals operated by Tenet Healthcare. A cohort of 237,173 ICU patients discharged between January 2014 and December 2016. The data were randomly split into training (36 hospitals), and validation (17 hospitals) data sets. Feature selection and model training were carried out using the training set while the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy of the model were assessed in the validation data set. Model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve; accuracy and calibration were assessed via adjusted Brier scores and visual analysis of calibration curves. Seventeen features, including a mix of clinical and administrative data elements, were retained in the final model. The Risk of Inpatient Death score demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.94) and calibration (adjusted Brier score = 52.8%) in the validation dataset; these results compare favorably to the published performance statistics for the most commonly used mortality risk adjustment algorithms. Low adoption of ICU mortality risk adjustment algorithms impedes progress toward increasing the value of the healthcare delivered in ICUs. The Risk of Inpatient Death score has many attractive attributes that address the key barriers to adoption of ICU risk adjustment algorithms and performs comparably to existing human-intensive algorithms. Automated risk adjustment algorithms have the potential to obviate known barriers to adoption such as cost-prohibitive licensing fees and significant direct labor costs. Further evaluation is needed to ensure that the level of performance observed in this study could be achieved at independent sites.

Does non-central nervous system tuberculosis increase the risk of ischemic stroke? A population-based propensity score-matched follow-up study.

PubMed

Wu, Chueh-Hung; Chen, Li-Sheng; Yen, Ming-Fang; Chiu, Yueh-Hsia; Fann, Ching-Yuan; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Pan, Shin-Liang

2014-01-01

Previous studies on the association between tuberculosis and the risk of developing ischemic stroke have generated inconsistent results. We therefore performed a population-based, propensity score-matched longitudinal follow-up study to investigate whether contracting non-central nervous system (CNS) tuberculosis leads to an increased risk of ischemic stroke. We used a logistic regression model that includes age, sex, pre-existing comorbidities and socioeconomic status as covariates to compute the propensity score. A total of 5804 persons with at least three ambulatory visits in 2001 with the principal diagnosis of non-CNS tuberculosis were enrolled in the tuberculosis group. The non-tuberculosis group consisted of 5804, propensity score-matched subjects without tuberculosis. The three-year ischemic stroke-free survival rates for these 2 groups were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The stratified Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the effect of tuberculosis on the occurrence of ischemic stroke. During three-year follow-up, 176 subjects in the tuberculosis group (3.0%) and 207 in the non-tuberculosis group (3.6%) had ischemic stroke. The hazard ratio for developing ischemic stroke in the tuberculosis group was 0.92 compared to the non-tuberculosis group (95% confidence interval: 0.73-1.14, P = 0.4299). Non-CNS tuberculosis does not increase the risk of subsequent ischemic stroke.

Point-of-Care Phalangeal Bone Mineral Density Measurement Can Reduce the Need of Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry Scanning in Danish Women at Risk of Fracture.

PubMed

Holmberg, Teresa; Bech, Mickael; Gram, Jeppe; Hermann, Anne Pernille; Rubin, Katrine Hass; Brixen, Kim

2016-03-01

Identifying persons with a high risk of osteoporotic fractures remains a challenge. DXA uptake in women with elevated risk of osteoporosis seems to be depending on distance to scanning facilities. This study aimed to investigate the ability of a small portable scanner in identifying women with reduced bone mineral density (BMD), and to define triage thresholds for pre-selection. Total hip and lumbar spine BMD was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and phalangeal BMD by radiographic absorptiometry in 121 Danish women with intermediate or high 10-year fracture probability (aged 61-81 years). Correlation between the two methods was estimated using correlation coefficient (r) and Bland-Altman plots. A moderate correlation between phalangeal BMD versus total hip (r = 0.47) and lumbar spine (r = 0.51), and an AUC on 0.80 was found. The mean difference between phalangeal T score and total hip T score/lumbar spine T score was low, and ranged from -0.26 SD to -0.31 SD depending on site and reference database used for calculation of T scores, but, large variation was seen at an individual level. When applying a triage approach approx. one-third of all DXA scan could be avoided and only 6 % of women in the low-risk group would be false negatives.

B-type Natriuretic Peptide and RISK-PCI Score in the Risk Assessment in Patients with STEMI Treated by Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

PubMed

Asanin, Milika; Mrdovic, Igor; Savic, Lidija; Matic, Dragan; Krljanac, Gordana; Vukcevic, Vladan; Orlic, Dejan; Stankovic, Goran; Marinkovic, Jelena; Stankovic, Sanja

2016-01-01

RISK-PCI score is a novel score for risk stratification of patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and the RISK-PCI score for early risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI. In 120 patients with STEMI treated by pPCI, BNP was measured on admission before pPCI. The primary end point was 30-day mortality. The ROC curve analysis revealed that the most powerful predictive factors of 30-day mortality were the plasma level of BNP ≥ 206.6 pg/mL with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 87.5% and the RISK-PCI score ≥ 5.25 with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 85.7%. Thirty-day mortality was 6.7%. After multivariate adjustment, admission BNP (≥ 206.6 pg/mL) (OR 2.952, 95% CI 1.072 - 8.133, p = 0.036) and the RISK-PCI score (≥ 5.25) (OR 2.284, 95% CI 1.140-4.578, p = 0.020) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. The area under the ROC curve using the RISK-PCI score and BNP to detect mortality was 0.828 (p = 0.002) and 0.903 (p < 0.001), respectively. Addition of BNP to RISK-PCI score increased the area under the ROC to 0.949 (p < 0.001), but this increase measured by the c-statistic was not significant (p = 0.107). Furthermore, the significant improvement in risk reclassification (p < 0.001) and the integrated discrimination index (p = 0.042) were observed with the addition of BNP to RISK-PCI score for 30-day mortality. BNP on admission and the RISK-PCI score were the independent predictors of 30-day mortality in patients with the STEMI treated by pPCI. BNP in combination with the RISK-PCI score showed the way to more accurate risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI.

Risks of undernutrition and malnutrition in hospitalized pediatric patients with spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Wang, Y-J; Zhou, H-J; Liu, P-J; Liu, G-L; Zheng, Y; Wei, B; Hao, C-X; Zhang, Y; Kang, H-Q; Lu, X-L; Yuan, Y

2017-03-01

Prospective study. To describe the nutritional risk/status of Chinese children with spinal cord injury (SCI) at admission and determine the relationship between nutritional risk/status and demography/SCI characteristics. China Rehabilitation Research Center, Beijing, China. Baseline clinical data, appetite level, anthropometric measurements and Screening Tool for the Assessment of Malnutrition in Pediatrics (STAMP) scores were obtained for pediatric SCI patients. The relationships among the demographic/SCI characteristics and STAMP score and z-scores of weight-for-age (WAZ), height-for-age (HAZ) and body mass index-for-age (BAZ) were assessed. The risk of undernutrition was compared with actual nutritional status. Forty-five children including 12 boys and 33 girls were included. The risks of undernutrition using the STAMP tool and malnutrition were 51.1% and 55.6%, respectively. Children with different demographic characteristics had similar nutritional status and risk of malnutrition. The risk of undernutrition was associated with nutritional status, including WAZ (P<0.001), HAZ (P=0.001), BAZ (P<0.001) and appetite level (P<0.001). Compared with nutritional status, STAMP had a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 73.3% and an overall agreement of 82.2%. As the duration of SCI increased, the risks of overweight and stunting increased. Nutritional screening in all pediatric SCI patients should be performed periodically. The decreasing trends in nutritional status and appetite level after SCI require special attention. The STAMP may be an alternative method for assessing nutritional status in Chinese children with SCI.

Venous thromboembolism prevention guidelines for medical inpatients: mind the (implementation) gap.

PubMed

Maynard, Greg; Jenkins, Ian H; Merli, Geno J

2013-10-01

Hospital-associated nonsurgical venous thromboembolism (VTE) is an important problem addressed by new guidelines from the American College of Physicians (ACP) and American College of Chest Physicians (AT9). Narrative review and critique. Both guidelines discount asymptomatic VTE outcomes and caution against overprophylaxis, but have different methodologies and estimates of risk/benefit. Guideline complexity and lack of consensus on VTE risk assessment contribute to an implementation gap. Methods to estimate prophylaxis benefit have significant limitations because major trials included mostly screening-detected events. AT9 relies on a single Italian cohort study to conclude that those with a Padua score ≥4 have a very high VTE risk, whereas patients with a score <4 (60% of patients) have a very small risk. However, the cohort population has less comorbidity than US inpatients, and over 1% of patients with a score of 3 suffered pulmonary emboli. The ACP guideline does not endorse any risk-assessment model. AT9 includes the Padua model and Caprini point-based system for nonsurgical inpatients and surgical inpatients, respectively, but there is no evidence they are more effective than simpler risk-assessment models. New VTE prevention guidelines provide varied guidance on important issues including risk assessment. If Padua is used, a threshold of 3, as well as 4, should be considered. Simpler VTE risk-assessment models may be superior to complicated point-based models in environments without sophisticated clinical decision support. © 2013 Society of Hospital Medicine.

The Stroke Riskometer™ App: Validation of a data collection tool and stroke risk predictor

PubMed Central

Parmar, Priya; Krishnamurthi, Rita; Ikram, M Arfan; Hofman, Albert; Mirza, Saira S; Varakin, Yury; Kravchenko, Michael; Piradov, Michael; Thrift, Amanda G; Norrving, Bo; Wang, Wenzhi; Mandal, Dipes Kumar; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Davis, Stephen; Saposnik, Gustavo; Kivipelto, Miia; Sindi, Shireen; Bornstein, Natan M; Giroud, Maurice; Béjot, Yannick; Brainin, Michael; Poulton, Richie; Narayan, K M Venkat; Correia, Manuel; Freire, António; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Wiebers, David; Mensah, George; BinDhim, Nasser F; Barber, P Alan; Pandian, Jeyaraj Durai; Hankey, Graeme J; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Azhagammal, Shobhana; Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohd; Abbott, Max; Rush, Elaine; Hume, Patria; Hussein, Tasleem; Bhattacharjee, Rohit; Purohit, Mitali; Feigin, Valery L

2015-01-01

Background The greatest potential to reduce the burden of stroke is by primary prevention of first-ever stroke, which constitutes three quarters of all stroke. In addition to population-wide prevention strategies (the ‘mass’ approach), the ‘high risk’ approach aims to identify individuals at risk of stroke and to modify their risk factors, and risk, accordingly. Current methods of assessing and modifying stroke risk are difficult to access and implement by the general population, amongst whom most future strokes will arise. To help reduce the burden of stroke on individuals and the population a new app, the Stroke Riskometer™, has been developed. We aim to explore the validity of the app for predicting the risk of stroke compared with current best methods. Methods 752 stroke outcomes from a sample of 9501 individuals across three countries (New Zealand, Russia and the Netherlands) were utilized to investigate the performance of a novel stroke risk prediction tool algorithm (Stroke Riskometer™) compared with two established stroke risk score prediction algorithms (Framingham Stroke Risk Score [FSRS] and QStroke). We calculated the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and area under the ROC curve (AUROC) with 95% confidence intervals, Harrels C-statistic and D-statistics for measure of discrimination, R2 statistics to indicate level of variability accounted for by each prediction algorithm, the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic for calibration, and the sensitivity and specificity of each algorithm. Results The Stroke Riskometer™ performed well against the FSRS five-year AUROC for both males (FSRS = 75·0% (95% CI 72·3%–77·6%), Stroke Riskometer™ = 74·0(95% CI 71·3%–76·7%) and females [FSRS = 70·3% (95% CI 67·9%–72·8%, Stroke Riskometer™ = 71·5% (95% CI 69·0%–73·9%)], and better than QStroke [males – 59·7% (95% CI 57·3%–62·0%) and comparable to females = 71·1% (95% CI 69·0%–73·1%)]. Discriminative ability of all algorithms was low (C-statistic ranging from 0·51–0·56, D-statistic ranging from 0·01–0·12). Hosmer-Lemeshow illustrated that all of the predicted risk scores were not well calibrated with the observed event data (P < 0·006). Conclusions The Stroke Riskometer™ is comparable in performance for stroke prediction with FSRS and QStroke. All three algorithms performed equally poorly in predicting stroke events. The Stroke Riskometer™ will be continually developed and validated to address the need to improve the current stroke risk scoring systems to more accurately predict stroke, particularly by identifying robust ethnic/race ethnicity group and country specific risk factors. PMID:25491651

Correlates of birth asphyxia using two Apgar score classification methods.

PubMed

Olusanya, Bolajoko O; Solanke, Olumuyiwa A

2010-01-01

Birth asphyxia is commonly indexed by low five-minute Apgar scores especially in resource-constrained settings but the impact of different classification thresholds on the associated risk factors has not been reported. To determine the potential impact of two classification methods of five-minute Apgar score as predictor for birth asphyxia. A cross-sectional study of preterm and term survivors in Lagos, Nigeria in which antepartum and intrapartum factors associated with "very low" (0-3) or "intermediate" (4-6) five-minute Apgar scores were compared with correlates of low five-minute Apgar scores (0-6) based on multinomial and binary logistic regression analyses. Of the 4281 mother-infant pairs enrolled, 3377 (78.9%) were full-term and 904 (21.1%) preterm. Apgar scores were very low in 99 (2.3%) and intermediate in 1115 (26.0%). Antenatal care, premature rupture of membranes (PROM), hypertensive disorders and mode of delivery were associated with very low and intermediate Apgar scores in all infants. Additionally, parity, antepartum haemorrhage and prolonged/obstructed labour (PROL) were predictive in term infants compared with maternal occupation and intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) in preterm infants. Conversely, PROM in term infants and maternal occupation in preterm infants were not significantly associated with the composite low Apgar scores (0-6) while IUGR was associated with term infants. Predictors of birth asphyxia in preterm and term infants are likely to be affected by the Apgar score classification method adopted and the clinical implications for optimal resuscitation practices merit attention in resource-constrained settings.

Confounding adjustment in comparative effectiveness research conducted within distributed research networks.

PubMed

Toh, Sengwee; Gagne, Joshua J; Rassen, Jeremy A; Fireman, Bruce H; Kulldorff, Martin; Brown, Jeffrey S

2013-08-01

A distributed research network (DRN) of electronic health care databases, in which data reside behind the firewall of each data partner, can support a wide range of comparative effectiveness research (CER) activities. An essential component of a fully functional DRN is the capability to perform robust statistical analyses to produce valid, actionable evidence without compromising patient privacy, data security, or proprietary interests. We describe the strengths and limitations of different confounding adjustment approaches that can be considered in observational CER studies conducted within DRNs, and the theoretical and practical issues to consider when selecting among them in various study settings. Several methods can be used to adjust for multiple confounders simultaneously, either as individual covariates or as confounder summary scores (eg, propensity scores and disease risk scores), including: (1) centralized analysis of patient-level data, (2) case-centered logistic regression of risk set data, (3) stratified or matched analysis of aggregated data, (4) distributed regression analysis, and (5) meta-analysis of site-specific effect estimates. These methods require different granularities of information be shared across sites and afford investigators different levels of analytic flexibility. DRNs are growing in use and sharing of highly detailed patient-level information is not always feasible in DRNs. Methods that incorporate confounder summary scores allow investigators to adjust for a large number of confounding factors without the need to transfer potentially identifiable information in DRNs. They have the potential to let investigators perform many analyses traditionally conducted through a centralized dataset with detailed patient-level information.

Dietary patterns derived with multiple methods from food diaries and breast cancer risk in the UK Dietary Cohort Consortium

PubMed Central

Pot, Gerda K; Stephen, Alison M; Dahm, Christina C; Key, Timothy J; Cairns, Benjamin J; Burley, Victoria J; Cade, Janet E; Greenwood, Darren C; Keogh, Ruth H; Bhaniani, Amit; McTaggart, Alison; Lentjes, Marleen AH; Mishra, Gita; Brunner, Eric J; Khaw, Kay Tee

2015-01-01

Background/ Objectives In spite of several studies relating dietary patterns to breast cancer risk, evidence so far remains inconsistent. This study aimed to investigate associations of dietary patterns derived with three different methods with breast cancer risk. Subjects/ Methods The Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), principal components analyses (PCA) and reduced rank regression (RRR) were used to derive dietary patterns in a case-control study of 610 breast cancer cases and 1891 matched controls within 4 UK cohort studies. Dietary intakes were collected prospectively using 4-to 7-day food diaries and resulting food consumption data were grouped into 42 food groups. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for associations between pattern scores and breast cancer risk adjusting for relevant covariates. A separate model was fitted for post-menopausal women only. Results The MDS was not associated with breast cancer risk (OR comparing 1st tertile with 3rd 1.20 (95% CI 0.92; 1.56)), nor the first PCA-derived dietary pattern, explaining 2.7% of variation of diet and characterized by cheese, crisps and savoury snacks, legumes, nuts and seeds (OR 1.18 (95% CI 0.91; 1.53)). The first RRR-derived pattern, a ‘high-alcohol’ pattern, was associated with a higher risk of breast cancer (OR 1.27; 95% CI 1.00; 1.62), which was most pronounced in post-menopausal women (OR 1.46 (95% CI 1.08; 1.98). Conclusions A ‘high-alcohol’ dietary pattern derived with RRR was associated with an increased breast cancer risk; no evidence of associations of other dietary patterns with breast cancer risk was observed in this study. PMID:25052230

Joint use of cardio-embolic and bleeding risk scores in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Marcucci, Maura; Nobili, Alessandro; Tettamanti, Mauro; Iorio, Alfonso; Pasina, Luca; Djade, Codjo D; Franchi, Carlotta; Marengoni, Alessandra; Salerno, Francesco; Corrao, Salvatore; Violi, Francesco; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio

2013-12-01

Scores for cardio-embolic and bleeding risk in patients with atrial fibrillation are described in the literature. However, it is not clear how they co-classify elderly patients with multimorbidity, nor whether and how they affect the physician's decision on thromboprophylaxis. Four scores for cardio-embolic and bleeding risks were retrospectively calculated for ≥ 65 year old patients with atrial fibrillation enrolled in the REPOSI registry. The co-classification of patients according to risk categories based on different score combinations was described and the relationship between risk categories tested. The association between the antithrombotic therapy received and the scores was investigated by logistic regressions and CART analyses. At admission, among 543 patients the median scores (range) were: CHADS2 2 (0-6), CHA2DS2-VASc 4 (1-9), HEMORR2HAGES 3 (0-7), HAS-BLED 2 (1-6). Most of the patients were at high cardio-embolic/high-intermediate bleeding risk (70.5% combining CHADS2 and HEMORR2HAGES, 98.3% combining CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED). 50-60% of patients were classified in a cardio-embolic risk category higher than the bleeding risk category. In univariate and multivariable analyses, a higher bleeding score was negatively associated with warfarin prescription, and positively associated with aspirin prescription. The cardio-embolic scores were associated with the therapeutic choice only after adjusting for bleeding score or age. REPOSI patients represented a population at high cardio-embolic and bleeding risks, but most of them were classified by the scores as having a higher cardio-embolic than bleeding risk. Yet, prescription and type of antithrombotic therapy appeared to be primarily dictated by the bleeding risk. © 2013.

Development of a simple tool to predict the risk of postpartum diabetes in women with gestational diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Köhler, M; Ziegler, A G; Beyerlein, A

2016-06-01

Women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) have an increased risk of diabetes postpartum. We developed a score to predict the long-term risk of postpartum diabetes using clinical and anamnestic variables recorded during or shortly after delivery. Data from 257 GDM women who were prospectively followed for diabetes outcome over 20 years of follow-up were used to develop and validate the risk score. Participants were divided into training and test sets. The risk score was calculated using Lasso Cox regression and divided into four risk categories, and its prediction performance was assessed in the test set. Postpartum diabetes developed in 110 women. The computed training set risk score of 5 × body mass index in early pregnancy (per kg/m(2)) + 132 if GDM was treated with insulin (otherwise 0) + 44 if the woman had a family history of diabetes (otherwise 0) - 35 if the woman lactated (otherwise 0) had R (2) values of 0.23, 0.25, and 0.33 at 5, 10, and 15 years postpartum, respectively, and a C-Index of 0.75. Application of the risk score in the test set resulted in observed risk of postpartum diabetes at 5 years of 11 % for low risk scores ≤140, 29 % for scores 141-220, 64 % for scores 221-300, and 80 % for scores >300. The derived risk score is easy to calculate, allows accurate prediction of GDM-related postpartum diabetes, and may thus be a useful prediction tool for clinicians and general practitioners.

Improving prediction of outcomes in African Americans with normal stress echocardiograms using a risk scoring system.

PubMed

Sutter, David A; Thomaides, Athanasios; Hornsby, Kyle; Mahenthiran, Jothiharan; Feigenbaum, Harvey; Sawada, Stephen G

2013-06-01

Cardiovascular mortality is high in African Americans, and those with normal results on stress echocardiography remain at increased risk. The aim of this study was to develop a risk scoring system to improve the prediction of cardiovascular events in African Americans with normal results on stress echocardiography. Clinical data and rest echocardiographic measurements were obtained in 548 consecutive African Americans with normal results on rest and stress echocardiography and ejection fractions ≥50%. Patients were followed for myocardial infarction and death for 3 years. Predictors of cardiovascular events were determined with Cox regression, and hazard ratios were used to determine the number of points in the risk score attributed to each independent predictor. During follow-up of 3 years, 47 patients (8.6%) had events. Five variables-age (≥45 years in men, ≥55 years in women), history of coronary disease, history of smoking, left ventricular hypertrophy, and exercise intolerance (<7 METs in men, <5 METs in women, or need for dobutamine stress)-were independent predictors of events. A risk score was derived for each patient (ranging from 0 to 8 risk points). The area under the curve for the risk score was 0.82 with the optimum cut-off risk score of 6. Among patients with risk scores ≥6, 30% had events, compared with 3% with risk score <6 (p <0.001). In conclusion, African Americans with normal results on stress echocardiography remain at significant risk for cardiovascular events. A risk score can be derived from clinical and echocardiographic variables, which can accurately distinguish high- and low-risk patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

All-cause mortality in asymptomatic persons with extensive Agatston scores above 1000.

PubMed

Patel, Jaideep; Blaha, Michael J; McEvoy, John W; Qadir, Sadia; Tota-Maharaj, Rajesh; Shaw, Leslee J; Rumberger, John A; Callister, Tracy Q; Berman, Daniel S; Min, James K; Raggi, Paolo; Agatston, Arthur A; Blumenthal, Roger S; Budoff, Matthew J; Nasir, Khurram

2014-01-01

Risk assessment in the extensive calcified plaque phenotype has been limited by small sample size. We studied all-cause mortality rates among asymptomatic patients with markedly elevated Agatston scores > 1000. We studied a clinical cohort of 44,052 asymptomatic patients referred for coronary calcium scans. Mean follow-up was 5.6 years (range, 1-13 years). All-cause mortality rates were calculated after stratifying by Agatston score (0, 1-1000, 1001-1500, 1500-2000, and >2000). A multivariable Cox regression model adjusting for self-reported traditional risk factors was created to assess the relative mortality hazard of Agatston scores 1001 to 1500, 1501 to 2000, and >2000. With the use of post-estimation modeling, we assessed for the presence of an upper threshold of risk with high Agatston scores. A total of 1593 patients (4% of total population) had Agatston score > 1000. There was a continuous graded decrease in estimated 10-year survival across increasing Agatston score, continuing when Agatston score > 1000 (Agatston score 1001-1500, 78%; Agatston score 1501-2000, 74%; Agatston score > 2000, 51%). After multivariable adjustment, Agatston scores 1001 to 1500, 1501 to 2000, and >2000 were associated with an 8.05-, 7.45-, and 13.26-fold greater mortality risk, respectively, than for Agatston score of 0. Compared with Agatston score 1001 to 1500, Agatston score 1501 to 2000 had a similar all-cause mortality risk, whereas Agatston score > 2000 had an increased relative risk (Agatston score 1501-2000: hazard ratio [HR], 1.01 [95% CI, 0.67-1.51]; Agatston score > 2000: HR, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.30-2.46]). Graphical assessment of the predicted survival model suggests no upper threshold for risk associated with calcified plaque in coronary arteries. Increasing calcified plaque in coronary arteries continues to predict a graded decrease in survival among patients with extensive Agatston score > 1000 with no apparent upper threshold. Published by Elsevier Inc.

CHA2DS2-VASc score and risk of thromboembolism and bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation and recent cancer.

PubMed

D'Souza, Maria; Carlson, Nicholas; Fosbøl, Emil; Lamberts, Morten; Smedegaard, Lærke; Nielsen, Dorte; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Gislason, Gunnar; Schou, Morten

2018-04-01

Background Cancer may influence the risk of thromboembolism and bleeding associated with the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score. We examined the risk of thromboembolism and bleeding associated with the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score in atrial fibrillation patients with and without recent cancer. Methods and results Using nationwide registers all patients diagnosed with atrial fibrillation from 2000 to 2015 and not on oral anticoagulation or heparin therapy were included and followed for 2 years. Recent cancer was defined by a cancer diagnosis 5 years or fewer earlier. Risks of thromboembolism and bleeding were estimated in cumulative incidence curves and Cox regression models. We included 122,053 patients with incident atrial fibrillation, 12,014 (10%) had recent cancer. The 2-year cumulative incidence of thromboembolism and bleeding in patients with versus without recent cancer was 1.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.5-2.8) and 4.3% (95% CI 2.4-6.2) versus 1.2% (95% CI 0.9-1.5) and 1.7% (95% CI 1.4-2.0) for CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score 0; 3.2% (95%CI 2.2-4.3) and 4.4% (95%CI 3.2-5.6) versus 1.8% (95%CI 1.6-2.1) and 3.0% (95% CI 2.7-3.3) for CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score 1; and 7.1% (95% CI 6.6-7.7) and 6.8% (95% CI 6.3-7.2) versus 10.9% (95% CI 10.7-11.1) and 6.2% (95% CI 6.1-6.4) for CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score 2 or greater. Although the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score was associated with thromboembolism and bleeding in both patients with and without cancer, the association differed between the groups for thromboembolism (test for interaction, p < 0.001) and bleeding (test for interaction, p < 0.001). Conclusion The association of the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score and risk of thromboembolism and bleeding differed between atrial fibrillation patients with and without recent cancer. Therefore, the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score should be used with caution in patients with recent cancer.

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

PubMed

Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E

2014-12-02

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

Setting Priorities in Global Child Health Research Investments: Guidelines for Implementation of the CHNRI Method

PubMed Central

Rudan, Igor; Gibson, Jennifer L.; Ameratunga, Shanthi; El Arifeen, Shams; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Black, Maureen; Black, Robert E.; Brown, Kenneth H.; Campbell, Harry; Carneiro, Ilona; Chan, Kit Yee; Chandramohan, Daniel; Chopra, Mickey; Cousens, Simon; Darmstadt, Gary L.; Gardner, Julie Meeks; Hess, Sonja Y.; Hyder, Adnan A.; Kapiriri, Lydia; Kosek, Margaret; Lanata, Claudio F.; Lansang, Mary Ann; Lawn, Joy; Tomlinson, Mark; Tsai, Alexander C.; Webster, Jayne

2008-01-01

This article provides detailed guidelines for the implementation of systematic method for setting priorities in health research investments that was recently developed by Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI). The target audience for the proposed method are international agencies, large research funding donors, and national governments and policy-makers. The process has the following steps: (i) selecting the managers of the process; (ii) specifying the context and risk management preferences; (iii) discussing criteria for setting health research priorities; (iv) choosing a limited set of the most useful and important criteria; (v) developing means to assess the likelihood that proposed health research options will satisfy the selected criteria; (vi) systematic listing of a large number of proposed health research options; (vii) pre-scoring check of all competing health research options; (viii) scoring of health research options using the chosen set of criteria; (ix) calculating intermediate scores for each health research option; (x) obtaining further input from the stakeholders; (xi) adjusting intermediate scores taking into account the values of stakeholders; (xii) calculating overall priority scores and assigning ranks; (xiii) performing an analysis of agreement between the scorers; (xiv) linking computed research priority scores with investment decisions; (xv) feedback and revision. The CHNRI method is a flexible process that enables prioritizing health research investments at any level: institutional, regional, national, international, or global. PMID:19090596

Risk of low Apgar score and socioeconomic position: a study of Swedish male births

PubMed Central

Odd, David E; Doyle, Pat; Gunnell, David; Lewis, Glyn; Whitelaw, Andrew; Rasmussen, Finn

2008-01-01

Aim The aim of this study was to investigate the association between maternal socioeconomic position and a persistent low Apgar score (a score of < 7 at 1 and 5 min following birth). Methods The research is based on a population cohort study of 183 637 males born in Sweden between 1973 and 1976. Data from the Medical Birth Register were linked to Population and Housing Censuses. Results There was evidence that mothers working in non-manual (Odds ratio (OR) 0.83 (0.72–0.97)) and self-employed (OR 0.64 (0.44–0.93)) occupations were less likely to have an infant with a low Apgar score, compared to manual workers. There was evidence that the risk of a low Apgar score decreased as the mother's level of education increased, if the infant was born by instrumental (OR 0.86 (0.74–0.99)) or caesarean section (OR 0.80 (0.68–0.93)) delivery, but not by unassisted vaginal delivery (OR 1.01 (0.92–1.10)). Conclusion There was a lower risk of poor birth condition in male infants born to more educated and non-manual/self-employed mothers. These differences may contribute to our understanding of socioeconomic differences in infant health and development although the results may not be applicable due to changes over the last 30 years. PMID:18489620

Longitudinal associations of sleep curtailment with metabolic risk in mid-childhood.

PubMed

Cespedes, Elizabeth M; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Redline, Susan; Gillman, Matthew W; Peña, Michelle-Marie; Taveras, Elsie M

2014-12-01

To examine associations of chronic insufficient sleep with mid-childhood cardiometabolic health. At 6 months and yearly from 1 to 7 years, mothers participating in the Project Viva cohort reported children's 24-h sleep duration. The main exposure was a sleep curtailment score, ranging from 0 (maximal curtailment) to 13 (never having curtailed sleep). The main outcome was a mid-childhood metabolic risk score, derived as the mean of five sex- and cohort-specific z scores for waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol (scaled inversely), and log-transformed triglycerides and HOMA-IR; higher scores indicate higher risk. The mean (SD) sleep score was 10.0 (2.8); 5.1% scored 0-4, 13.9% scored 5-7, 14.1% scored 8-9, 28.7% scored 10-11, and 38.3% scored 12-13. Mean (SD, range) metabolic risk score was -0.03 (0.6, -1.8 to 2.6). In multivariable models, the metabolic risk score difference for children with most versus least curtailed sleep was 0.29 units (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02, 0.57). Further adjustment for mid-childhood BMI z score attenuated this difference to 0.08 units (95% CI: -0.14, 0.30). Chronic insufficient sleep from infancy to school-age was associated with higher mid-childhood metabolic risk. This association was explained by sleep duration's influence on mid-childhood adiposity. © 2014 The Obesity Society.

New modalities of ultrasound-based intima-media thickness, arterial stiffness and non-coronary vascular calcifications detection to assess cardiovascular risk.

PubMed

Flore, R; Ponziani, F R; Tinelli, G; Arena, V; Fonnesu, C; Nesci, A; Santoro, L; Tondi, P; Santoliquido, A

2015-04-01

Carotid intima-media thickness (c-IMT), arterial stiffness (AS) and vascular calcification (VC) are now considered important new markers of atherosclerosis and have been associated with increased prevalence of cardiovascular events. An accurate, reproducible and easy detection of these parameters could increase the prognostic value of the traditional cardiovascular risk factors in many subjects at low and intermediate risk. Today, c-IMT and AS can be measured by ultrasound, while cardiac computed tomography is the gold standard to quantify coronary VC, although concern about the reproducibility of the former and the safety of the latter have been raised. Nevertheless, a safe and reliable method to quantify non-coronary (i.e., peripheral) VC has not been detected yet. To review the most innovative and accurate ultrasound-based modalities of c-IMT and AS detection and to describe a novel UltraSound-Based Carotid, Aortic and Lower limbs Calcification Score (USB-CALCs, simply named CALC), allowing to quantify peripheral calcifications. Finally, to propose a system for cardiovascular risk reclassification derived from the global evaluation of "Quality Intima-Media Thickness", "Quality Arterial Stiffness", and "CALC score" in addition to the Framingham score.

Reduced genetic influence on childhood obesity in small for gestational age children

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Children born small-for-gestational-age (SGA) are at increased risk of developing obesity and metabolic diseases later in life, a risk which is magnified if followed by accelerated postnatal growth. We investigated whether common gene variants associated with adult obesity were associated with increased postnatal growth, as measured by BMI z-score, in children born SGA and appropriate for gestational age (AGA) in the Auckland Birthweight Collaborative. Methods A total of 37 candidate SNPs were genotyped on 547 European children (228 SGA and 319 AGA). Repeated measures of BMI (z-score) were used for assessing obesity status, and results were corrected for multiple testing using the false discovery rate. Results SGA children had a lower BMI z-score than non-SGA children at assessment age 3.5, 7 and 11 years. We confirmed 27 variants within 14 obesity risk genes to be individually associated with increasing early childhood BMI, predominantly in those born AGA. Conclusions Genetic risk variants are less important in influencing early childhood BMI in those born SGA than in those born AGA, suggesting that non-genetic or environmental factors may be more important in influencing childhood BMI in those born SGA. PMID:23339409

A low-cost rapid upper limb assessment method in manual assembly line based on somatosensory interaction technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Shengqian; Liu, Peng; Fu, Danni; Xue, Yiming; Luo, Wentao; Wang, Mingjie

2017-04-01

As an effective survey method of upper limb disorder, rapid upper limb assessment (RULA) has a wide application in industry period. However, it is very difficult to rapidly evaluate operator's postures in real complex work place. In this paper, a real-time RULA method is proposed to accurately assess the potential risk of operator's postures based on the somatosensory data collected from Kinect sensor, which is a line of motion sensing input devices by Microsoft. First, the static position information of each bone point is collected to obtain the effective angles of body parts based on the calculating methods based on joints angles. Second, a whole RULA score of body is obtained to assess the risk level of current posture in real time. Third, those RULA scores are compared with the results provided by a group of ergonomic practitionerswho were asked to observe the same static postures. All the experiments were carried out in an ergonomic lab. The results show that the proposed method can detect operator's postures more accurately. What's more, this method is applied in a real-time condition which can improve the evaluating efficiency.

A Simple Model to Rank Shellfish Farming Areas Based on the Risk of Disease Introduction and Spread.

PubMed

Thrush, M A; Pearce, F M; Gubbins, M J; Oidtmann, B C; Peeler, E J

2017-08-01

The European Union Council Directive 2006/88/EC requires that risk-based surveillance (RBS) for listed aquatic animal diseases is applied to all aquaculture production businesses. The principle behind this is the efficient use of resources directed towards high-risk farm categories, animal types and geographic areas. To achieve this requirement, fish and shellfish farms must be ranked according to their risk of disease introduction and spread. We present a method to risk rank shellfish farming areas based on the risk of disease introduction and spread and demonstrate how the approach was applied in 45 shellfish farming areas in England and Wales. Ten parameters were used to inform the risk model, which were grouped into four risk themes based on related pathways for transmission of pathogens: (i) live animal movement, (ii) transmission via water, (iii) short distance mechanical spread (birds) and (iv) long distance mechanical spread (vessels). Weights (informed by expert knowledge) were applied both to individual parameters and to risk themes for introduction and spread to reflect their relative importance. A spreadsheet model was developed to determine quantitative scores for the risk of pathogen introduction and risk of pathogen spread for each shellfish farming area. These scores were used to independently rank areas for risk of introduction and for risk of spread. Thresholds were set to establish risk categories (low, medium and high) for introduction and spread based on risk scores. Risk categories for introduction and spread for each area were combined to provide overall risk categories to inform a risk-based surveillance programme directed at the area level. Applying the combined risk category designation framework for risk of introduction and spread suggested by European Commission guidance for risk-based surveillance, 4, 10 and 31 areas were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively. © 2016 Crown copyright.

[Proportion and prevention of venous thromboembolism among hospitalized patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Beijing].

PubMed

Liang, Li-rong; Zhang, Zhu; Wang, Hong; Xu, Zhen-yang; Qian, Xiao-sen; Zhang, Zuo-qing; Chen, Jin; Zhang, Feng-zhen; Yang, Yuan-hua

2013-08-13

To explore the proportion and prevention status of venous thromboembolism (VTE) among hospitalized patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) in Beijing. Based on a multi-center retrospective study, a total of 636 hospitalized AECOPD patients from 17 class 2/3 hospitals in Beijing were examined from September 1, 2011 to March 31, 2012. They fulfilled one of the following criteria: respiratory failure type II, on invasive or non-invasive mechanical ventilation, hospitalization for pulmonary infection, bedridden duration ≥ 3 days and congestive heart failure. All investigators received standardized training and used a standardized questionnaire to collect data on VTE risk factors, the diagnosis of VTE and the utilization of VTE prophylaxis. According to Caprini score, they were categorized into 3 groups of lower risk (Caprini score ≤ 3), moderate risk (Caprini score 4-6) and high risk ( ≥ 7) to compare the intergroup differences in the VTE proportion and the utilization of VTE prophylaxis. A total of 636 patients were assessed. There were 416 males and 220 females with a mean (SD) age of 74.9 ± 9.3 years. Among them, 133 patients received lower extremity venous ultrasonic examination and 92 were diagnosed with deep venous thrombosis (DVT) including 2 patients with pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE). Thus the overall incidence of VTE was 14.5% (92/636) and increased with age (Ptrend = 0.044). The proportion of VTE in asymptomatic patients was higher in those symptomatic ones (21.1% vs 8.0%, P = 0.000). And it was the highest in high risk group, followed by lower risk and moderate risk groups at 17.9% (14/78), 16.0% (26/163) and 13.2% (52/395) respectively, There was no statistical significance (P = 0.450 for group difference, Ptrend = 0.946). Among 544 patients without VTE, only 19.1% (104/544) employed the pharmacologic and/or mechanical methods for preventing VTE. The prevention proportion gradually increased with rising Caprini score, i.e. 17.5%, 18.4% and 26.6% for lower, moderate and higher risk group respectively. There was no statistical significance (P = 0.266 for group difference, Ptrend = 0.201). The proportion of VTE is relatively higher. However, the preventive methods are significantly underutilized among hospitalized AECOPD patients in Beijing.

Impulsivity, Sensation Seeking, and Risk-Taking Behaviors among HIV-Positive and HIV-Negative Heroin Dependent Persons

PubMed Central

Paydary, Koosha; Mahin Torabi, Somayeh; SeyedAlinaghi, SeyedAhmad; Noori, Mehri; Noroozi, Alireza; Ameri, Sara; Ekhtiari, Hamed

2016-01-01

Objective. The aim of this study was to compare impulsivity and risky decision making among HIV-positive and negative heroin dependent persons. Methods. We compared different dimensions of impulsivity and risky decision making in two groups of 60 HIV-positive and 60 HIV-negative male heroin dependent persons. Each group was comprised of equal numbers of current (treatment seeker) and former (abstinent) heroin addicts. Data collection tools included Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS), and Zuckerman Sensation Seeking Scale (SSS). Results. In SSS, comprised of four subscales including thrill and adventure seeking (TAS), experience seeking (ES), disinhibition (DIS), and boredom susceptibility (BS), there was a borderline difference in DIS (P = 0.08) as HIV-positive group scored higher than HIV-negative group. Also, ES and total score were significantly higher among HIV-positive patients. In BART, HIV-positive subjects scored higher in risk taking than HIV-negative subjects as reflected in higher Average Number of puffs in Successful Balloons (ANSB). In BIS, HIV-positive group scored significantly higher in cognitive impulsivity (CI) (P = 0.03) and nonplanning impulsivity (NPI) (P = 0.05) in comparison to HIV-negative group. Also, current heroin addicts scored significantly higher in NPI compared to former addict HIV-negative participants (P = 0.015). IGT did not show any significant difference between groups. Conclusion. Higher levels of impulsivity and risk taking behaviors among HIV-positive heroin addicts will increase serious concerns regarding HIV transmission from this group to other opiate dependents and healthy people. PMID:27051528

Validation of a polygenic risk score for dementia in black and white individuals

PubMed Central

Marden, Jessica R; Walter, Stefan; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Kawachi, Ichiro; Glymour, M Maria

2014-01-01

Objective To determine whether a polygenic risk score for Alzheimer's disease (AD) predicts dementia probability and memory functioning in non-Hispanic black (NHB) and non-Hispanic white (NHW) participants from a sample not used in previous genome-wide association studies. Methods Non-Hispanic white and NHB Health and Retirement Study (HRS) participants provided genetic information and either a composite memory score (n = 10,401) or a dementia probability score (n = 7690). Dementia probability score was estimated for participants' age 65+ from 2006 to 2010, while memory score was available for participants age 50+. We calculated AD genetic risk scores (AD-GRS) based on 10 polymorphisms confirmed to predict AD, weighting alleles by beta coefficients reported in AlzGene meta-analyses. We used pooled logistic regression to estimate the association of the AD-GRS with dementia probability and generalized linear models to estimate its effect on memory score. Results Each 0.10 unit change in the AD-GRS was associated with larger relative effects on dementia among NHW aged 65+ (OR = 2.22; 95% CI: 1.79, 2.74; P < 0.001) than NHB (OR=1.33; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.77; P = 0.047), although additive effect estimates were similar. Each 0.10 unit change in the AD-GRS was associated with a −0.07 (95% CI: −0.09, −0.05; P < 0.001) SD difference in memory score among NHW aged 50+, but no significant differences among NHB (β = −0.01; 95% CI: −0.04, 0.01; P = 0.546). [Correction added on 29 July 2014, after first online publication: confidence intervalshave been amended.] The estimated effect of the GRS was significantly smaller among NHB than NHW (P < 0.05) for both outcomes. Conclusion This analysis provides evidence for differential relative effects of the GRS on dementia probability and memory score among NHW and NHB in a new, national data set. PMID:25328845

Occult Breast Cancer: Scintimammography with High-Resolution Breast-specific Gamma Camera in Women at High Risk for Breast Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rachel F. Brem; Jocelyn A. Rapelyea; , Gilat Zisman

2005-08-01

To prospectively evaluate a high-resolution breast-specific gamma camera for depicting occult breast cancer in women at high risk for breast cancer but with normal mammographic and physical examination findings. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Institutional Review Board approval and informed consent were obtained. The study was HIPAA compliant. Ninety-four high-risk women (age range, 36-78 years; mean, 55 years) with normal mammographic (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System [BI-RADS] 1 or 2) and physical examination findings were evaluated with scintimammography. After injection with 25-30 mCi (925-1110 MBq) of technetium 99m sestamibi, patients were imaged with a high-resolution small-field-of-view breast-specific gamma camera in craniocaudalmore » and mediolateral oblique projections. Scintimammograms were prospectively classified according to focal radiotracer uptake as normal (score of 1), with no focal or diffuse uptake; benign (score of 2), with minimal patchy uptake; probably benign (score of 3), with scattered patchy uptake; probably abnormal (score of 4), with mild focal radiotracer uptake; and abnormal (score of 5), with marked focal radiotracer uptake. Mammographic breast density was categorized according to BI-RADS criteria. Patients with normal scintimammograms (scores of 1, 2, or 3) were followed up for 1 year with an annual mammogram, physical examination, and repeat scintimammography. Patients with abnormal scintimammograms (scores of 4 or 5) underwent ultrasonography (US), and those with focal hypoechoic lesions underwent biopsy. If no lesion was found during US, patients were followed up with scintimammography. Specific pathologic findings were compared with scintimammographic findings. RESULTS: Of 94 women, 78 (83%) had normal scintimammograms (score of 1, 2, or 3) at initial examination and 16 (17%) had abnormal scintimammograms (score of 4 or 5). Fourteen (88%) of the 16 patients had either benign findings at biopsy or no focal abnormality at US; in two (12%) patients, invasive carcinoma was diagnosed at US-guided biopsy (9 mm each at pathologic examination). CONCLUSION: High-resolution breast-specific scintimammography can depict small (<1-cm), mammographically occult, nonpalpable lesions in women at increased risk for breast cancer not otherwise identified at mammography or physical examination.« less

Seeking Clearer Recommendations for Hand Hygiene in Communities Facing Ebola: A Randomized Trial Investigating the Impact of Six Handwashing Methods on Skin Irritation and Dermatitis.

PubMed

Wolfe, Marlene K; Wells, Emma; Mitro, Brittany; Desmarais, Anne Marie; Scheinman, Pamela; Lantagne, Daniele

2016-01-01

To prevent disease transmission, 0.05% chlorine solution is commonly recommended for handwashing in Ebola Treatment Units. In the 2014 West Africa outbreak this recommendation was widely extended to community settings, although many organizations recommend soap and hand sanitizer over chlorine. To evaluate skin irritation caused by frequent handwashing that may increase transmission risk in Ebola-affected communities, we conducted a randomized trial with 91 subjects who washed their hands 10 times a day for 28 days. Subjects used soap and water, sanitizer, or one of four chlorine solutions used by Ebola responders (calcium hypochlorite (HTH), sodium dichloroisocyanurate (NaDCC), and generated or pH-stabilized sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl)). Outcomes were self-reported hand feel, irritation as measured by the Hand Eczema Score Index (HECSI) (range 0-360), signs of transmission risk (e.g., cracking), and dermatitis diagnosis. All groups experienced statistically significant increases in HECSI score. Subjects using sanitizer had the smallest increases, followed by higher pH chlorine solutions (HTH and stabilized NaOCl), and soap and water. The greatest increases were among neutral pH chlorine solutions (NaDCC and generated NaOCl). Signs of irritation related to higher transmission risk were observed most frequently in subjects using soap and least frequently by those using sanitizer or HTH. Despite these irritation increases, all methods represented minor changes in HECSI score. Average HECSI score was only 9.10 at endline (range 1-33) and 4% (4/91) of subjects were diagnosed with dermatitis, one each in four groups. Each handwashing method has benefits and drawbacks: soap is widely available and inexpensive, but requires water and does not inactivate the virus; sanitizer is easy-to use and effective but expensive and unacceptable to many communities, and chlorine is easy-to-use but difficult to produce properly and distribute. Overall, we recommend Ebola responders and communities use whichever handwashing method(s) are most acceptable, available, and sustainable for community handwashing. International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Registry ISRCTN89815514.

Increased Risk for Falling Associated with Subtle Cognitive Impairment: Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Gleason, Carey E.; Gangnon, Ronald E.; Fischer, Barbara L.; Mahoney, Jane E.

2009-01-01

Background/Aims Having dementia increases patients’ risk for accidental falls. However, it is unknown if having mild cognitive deficits also elevates a person's risk for falls. This study sought to clarify the relationship between subtle cognitive impairment, measured with a widely-used, clinic-based assessment, the Mini Mental State Exam (MMSE), and risk for falls. Methods In a secondary analysis of the Kenosha County Falls Prevention Study, a randomized controlled trial targeting older adults at risk for falls, we examined the association between baseline MMSE and prospective rate of falls over 12 months in 172 subjects randomized to control group. Results Using univariate analysis, the rate of falls increased with each unit decrease in MMSE score down to at least 22 (rate ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09–1.45, p = 0.0026). Using stepwise multivariate regression, controlling for ability to perform activities of daily living, use of assistive device, current exercise, and arthritis, the association between MMSE score and falls rate persisted (rate ratio 1.20, 95% CI 1.03–1.40, p = 0.021). Conclusion Minimal decrements on the MMSE were associated with elevations in rate of falls, suggesting that subtle cognitive deficits reflected in MMSE scores above a cut-off consistent with a diagnosis of dementia, can influence risk for falls. PMID:19602883

Comparing strategies to assess multiple behavior change in behavioral intervention studies.

PubMed

Drake, Bettina F; Quintiliani, Lisa M; Sapp, Amy L; Li, Yi; Harley, Amy E; Emmons, Karen M; Sorensen, Glorian

2013-03-01

Alternatives to individual behavior change methods have been proposed, however, little has been done to investigate how these methods compare. To explore four methods that quantify change in multiple risk behaviors targeting four common behaviors. We utilized data from two cluster-randomized, multiple behavior change trials conducted in two settings: small businesses and health centers. Methods used were: (1) summative; (2) z-score; (3) optimal linear combination; and (4) impact score. In the Small Business study, methods 2 and 3 revealed similar outcomes. However, physical activity did not contribute to method 3. In the Health Centers study, similar results were found with each of the methods. Multivitamin intake contributed significantly more to each of the summary measures than other behaviors. Selection of methods to assess multiple behavior change in intervention trials must consider study design, and the targeted population when determining the appropriate method/s to use.

Multicentre validation of the bedside paediatric early warning system score: a severity of illness score to detect evolving critical illness in hospitalised children

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction The timely provision of critical care to hospitalised patients at risk for cardiopulmonary arrest is contingent upon identification and referral by frontline providers. Current approaches require improvement. In a single-centre study, we developed the Bedside Paediatric Early Warning System (Bedside PEWS) score to identify patients at risk. The objective of this study was to validate the Bedside PEWS score in a large patient population at multiple hospitals. Methods We performed an international, multicentre, case-control study of children admitted to hospital inpatient units with no limitations on care. Case patients had experienced a clinical deterioration event involving either an immediate call to a resuscitation team or urgent admission to a paediatric intensive care unit. Control patients had no events. The scores ranged from 0 to 26 and were assessed in the 24 hours prior to the clinical deterioration event. Score performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUCROC) curve by comparison with the retrospective rating of nurses and the temporal progression of scores in case patients. Results A total of 2,074 patients were evaluated at 4 participating hospitals. The median (interquartile range) maximum Bedside PEWS scores for the 12 hours ending 1 hour before the clinical deterioration event were 8 (5 to 12) in case patients and 2 (1 to 4) in control patients (P < 0.0001). The AUCROC curve (95% confidence interval) was 0.87 (0.85 to 0.89). In case patients, mean scores were 5.3 at 20 to 24 hours and 8.4 at 0 to 4 hours before the event (P < 0.0001). The AUCROC curve (95% CI) of the retrospective nurse ratings was 0.83 (0.81 to 0.86). This was significantly lower than that of the Bedside PEWS score (P < 0.0001). Conclusions The Bedside PEWS score identified children at risk for cardiopulmonary arrest. Scores were elevated and continued to increase in the 24 hours before the clinical deterioration event. Prospective clinical evaluation is needed to determine whether this score will improve the quality of care and patient outcomes. PMID:21812993

Women's knowledge, attitudes and practice about breast cancer screening in the region of Monastir (Tunisia).

PubMed

El Mhamdi, Sana; Bouanene, Ines; Mhirsi, Amel; Sriha, Asma; Ben Salem, Kamel; Soltani, Mohamed Soussi

2013-01-01

Breast cancer remains a worldwide public health problem. In Tunisia, it is considered to be the primary women's cancer and causes high morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to investigate female knowledge, attitudes and practice of breast cancer screening in the region of Monastir (Tunisia). We conducted a descriptive cross-sectional design exploring knowledge, attitudes and practices of women in the region of Monastir on breast cancer screening. The study was conducted in health centres of this region from 1 March 2009 to 30 June 2009. Data were collected via a structured questionnaire containing 15 items on demographic status, knowledge of risk factors and screening methods and attitudes towards the relevance and effectiveness of breast cancer screening. A scoring scheme was used to score women's responses. A total of 900 women agreed to take part in the study. Their mean age was 41.6±12.4 years and 64% did not exceed the primary level of education. According to the constructed scores, 92% of participants had poor knowledge of the specific risk factors for breast cancer and 63.2% had poor knowledge of the screening methods. Proper practice of breast cancer screening was observed in 14.3% of cases. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that good knowledge of risk factors and screening methods, higher level of education and positive family history of breast cancer were independently correlated with breast cancer screening practice. This study revealed poor knowledge of breast cancer and the screening methods as well as low levels of practice of breast cancer screening among women in the region of Monastir. Results justify educational programs to raise women's adherence to breast cancer screening programs in Tunisia.

The association between carbohydrate-rich foods and risk of cardiovascular disease is not modified by genetic susceptibility to dyslipidemia as determined by 80 validated variants.

PubMed

Sonestedt, Emily; Hellstrand, Sophie; Schulz, Christina-Alexandra; Wallström, Peter; Drake, Isabel; Ericson, Ulrika; Gullberg, Bo; Hedblad, Bo; Orho-Melander, Marju

2015-01-01

It is still unclear whether carbohydrate consumption is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Genetic susceptibility might modify the associations between dietary intakes and disease risk. The aim was to examine the association between the consumption of carbohydrate-rich foods (vegetables, fruits and berries, juice, potatoes, whole grains, refined grains, cookies and cakes, sugar and sweets, and sugar-sweetened beverages) and the risk of incident ischemic CVD (iCVD; coronary events and ischemic stroke), and whether these associations differ depending on genetic susceptibility to dyslipidemia. Among 26,445 individuals (44-74 years; 62% females) from the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study cohort, 2,921 experienced an iCVD event during a mean follow-up time of 14 years. At baseline, dietary data were collected using a modified diet history method, and clinical risk factors were measured in 4,535 subjects. We combined 80 validated genetic variants associated with triglycerides and HDL-C or LDL-C, into genetic risk scores and examined the interactions between dietary intakes and genetic risk scores on the incidence of iCVD. Subjects in the highest intake quintile for whole grains had a 13% (95% CI: 3-23%; p-trend: 0.002) lower risk for iCVD compared to the lowest quintile. A higher consumption of foods rich in added sugar (sugar and sweets, and sugar-sweetened beverages) had a significant cross-sectional association with higher triglyceride concentrations and lower HDL-C concentrations. A stronger positive association between a high consumption of sugar and sweets on iCVD risk was observed among those with low genetic risk score for triglycerides (p-interaction=0.05). In this prospective cohort study that examined food sources of carbohydrates, individuals with a high consumption of whole grains had a decreased risk of iCVD. No convincing evidence of an interaction between genetic susceptibility for dyslipidemia, measured as genetic risk scores of dyslipidemia-associated variants, and the consumption of carbohydrate-rich foods on iCVD risk was observed.

Exploratory analysis of textual data from the Mother and Child Handbook using the text-mining method: Relationships with maternal traits and post-partum depression.

PubMed

Matsuda, Yoshio; Manaka, Tomoko; Kobayashi, Makiko; Sato, Shuhei; Ohwada, Michitaka

2016-06-01

The aim of the present study was to examine the possibility of screening apprehensive pregnant women and mothers at risk for post-partum depression from an analysis of the textual data in the Mother and Child Handbook by using the text-mining method. Uncomplicated pregnant women (n = 58) were divided into two groups according to State-Trait Anxiety Inventory grade (high trait [group I, n = 21] and low trait [group II, n = 37]) or Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale score (high score [group III, n = 15] and low score [group IV, n = 43]). An exploratory analysis of the textual data from the Maternal and Child Handbook was conducted using the text-mining method with the Word Miner software program. A comparison of the 'structure elements' was made between the two groups. The number of structure elements extracted by separated words from text data was 20 004 and the number of structure elements with a threshold of 2 or more as an initial value was 1168. Fifteen key words related to maternal anxiety, and six key words related to post-partum depression were extracted. The text-mining method is useful for the exploratory analysis of textual data obtained from pregnant woman, and this screening method has been suggested to be useful for apprehensive pregnant women and mothers at risk for post-partum depression. © 2016 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Use of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) for diagnosis and fracture risk assessment; WHO-criteria, T- and Z-score, and reference databases.

PubMed

Dimai, Hans P

2017-11-01

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is a two-dimensional imaging technology developed to assess bone mineral density (BMD) of the entire human skeleton and also specifically of skeletal sites known to be most vulnerable to fracture. In order to simplify interpretation of BMD measurement results and allow comparability among different DXA-devices, the T-score concept was introduced. This concept involves an individual's BMD which is then compared with the mean value of a young healthy reference population, with the difference expressed as a standard deviation (SD). Since the early nineties of the past century, the diagnostic categories "normal, osteopenia, and osteoporosis", as recommended by a WHO working Group, are based on this concept. Thus, DXA is still the globally accepted "gold-standard" method for the noninvasive diagnosis of osteoporosis. Another score obtained from DXA measurement, termed Z-score, describes the number of SDs by which the BMD in an individual differs from the mean value expected for age and sex. Although not intended for diagnosis of osteoporosis in adults, it nevertheless provides information about an individual's fracture risk compared to peers. DXA measurement can either be used as a "stand-alone" means in the assessment of an individual's fracture risk, or incorporated into one of the available fracture risk assessment tools such as FRAX® or Garvan, thus improving the predictive power of such tools. The issue which reference databases should be used by DXA-device manufacturers for T-score reference standards has been recently addressed by an expert group, who recommended use National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (NHANES III) databases for the hip reference standard but own databases for the lumbar spine. Furthermore, in men it is recommended use female reference databases for calculation of the T-score and use male reference databases for calculation of Z-score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Same score, different message: perceptions of offender risk depend on Static-99R risk communication format.

PubMed

Varela, Jorge G; Boccaccini, Marcus T; Cuervo, Veronica A; Murrie, Daniel C; Clark, John W

2014-10-01

The popular Static-99R allows evaluators to convey results in terms of risk category (e.g., low, moderate, high), relative risk (compared with other sexual offenders), or normative sample recidivism rate formats (e.g., 30% reoffended in 5 years). But we do not know whether judges and jurors draw similar conclusions about the same Static-99R score when findings are communicated using different formats. Community members reporting for jury duty (N = 211) read a tutorial on the Static-99R and a description of a sexual offender and his crimes. We varied his Static-99R score (1 or 6) and risk communication format (categorical, relative risk, or recidivism rate). Participants rated the high-scoring offender as higher risk than the low-scoring offender in the categorical communication condition, but not in the relative risk or recidivism rate conditions. Moreover, risk ratings of the high-scoring offender were notably higher in the categorical communication condition than the relative risk and recidivism rate conditions. Participants who read about a low Static-99R score tended to report that Static-99R results were unimportant and difficult to understand, especially when risk was communicated using categorical or relative risk formats. Overall, results suggest that laypersons are more receptive to risk results indicating high risk than low risk and more receptive to risk communication messages that provide an interpretative label (e.g., high risk) than those that provide statistical results. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Development of a self-assessment score for metabolic syndrome risk in non-obese Korean adults.

PubMed

Je, Youjin; Kim, Youngyo; Park, Taeyoung

2017-03-01

There is a need for simple risk scores that identify individuals at high risk for metabolic syndrome (MetS). Therefore, this study was performed to develop and validate a self-assessment score for MetS risk in non-obese Korean adults. Data from the fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES IV), 2007-2009 were used to develop a MetS risk score. We included a total of 5,508 non-obese participants aged 19-64 years who were free of a self-reported diagnosis of diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, stroke, angina, or cancer. Multivariable logistic regression model coefficients were used to assign each variable category a score. The validity of the score was assessed in an independent population survey performed in 2010 and 2011, KNHANES V (n=3,892). Age, BMI, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, dairy consumption, dietary habit of eating less salty and food insecurity were selected as categorical variables. The MetS risk score value varied from 0 to 13, and a cut-point MetS risk score of >=7 was selected based on the highest Youden index. The cut-point provided a sensitivity of 81%, specificity of 61%, positive predictive value of 14%, and negative predictive value of 98%, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78. Consistent results were obtained in the validation data sets. This simple risk score may be used to identify individuals at high risk for MetS without laboratory tests among non-obese Korean adults. Further studies are needed to verify the usefulness and feasibility of this score in various settings.

ACC/AHA guidelines superior to ESC/EAS guidelines for primary prevention with statins in non-diabetic Europeans: the Copenhagen General Population Study

PubMed Central

Mortensen, Martin Bødtker; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Afzal, Shoaib; Falk, Erling

2017-01-01

Abstract Aim We compared the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) and the 2016 European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society (ESC/EAS) guidelines on prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) using different risk prediction models [US Pooled Cohort Equations (US-PCE for any ASCVD) and European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation system (European-SCORE for fatal ASCVD)] and different statin eligibility criteria. Methods and results We examined 44 889 individuals aged 40–75 recruited in 2003–09 in the Copenhagen General Population Study, all free of ASCVD, diabetes, and statin use at baseline. We detected 2217 any ASCVD events and 199 fatal ASCVD events through 2014. The predicted-to-observed event ratio was 1.2 using US-PCE for any ASCVD and 5.0 using European-SCORE for fatal ASCVD. The US-PCE, but not the European-SCORE, was well-calibrated around decision thresholds for statin therapy. For a Class I recommendation, 42% of individuals qualified for statins using the ACC/AHA guidelines vs. 6% with the ESC/EAS guidelines. Using ACC/AHA- vs. ESC/EAS-defined statin eligibility led to a substantial gain in sensitivity (+62% for any ASCVD and +76% for fatal ASCVD) with a smaller loss in specificity (−35% for any ASCVD and −36% for fatal ASCVD). Similar differences between the ACC/AHA and ESC/EAS guidelines were found for men and women separately, and for Class IIa recommendations. The sensitivity and specificity of a US-PCE risk of 5% were similar to those of a European-SCORE risk of 1.4%, whereas a US-PCE risk of 7.5% was similar to a European-SCORE risk of 2.4%. Conclusions The ACC/AHA guidelines were superior to the ESC/EAS guidelines for primary prevention of ASCVD, that is, for accurately assigning statin therapy to those who would benefit. PMID:28363217

The Prediction of Type 1 Diabetes by Multiple Autoantibody Levels and Their Incorporation Into an Autoantibody Risk Score in Relatives of Type 1 Diabetic Patients

PubMed Central

Sosenko, Jay M.; Skyler, Jay S.; Palmer, Jerry P.; Krischer, Jeffrey P.; Yu, Liping; Mahon, Jeffrey; Beam, Craig A.; Boulware, David C.; Rafkin, Lisa; Schatz, Desmond; Eisenbarth, George

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE We assessed whether a risk score that incorporates levels of multiple islet autoantibodies could enhance the prediction of type 1 diabetes (T1D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS TrialNet Natural History Study participants (n = 784) were tested for three autoantibodies (GADA, IA-2A, and mIAA) at their initial screening. Samples from those positive for at least one autoantibody were subsequently tested for ICA and ZnT8A. An autoantibody risk score (ABRS) was developed from a proportional hazards model that combined autoantibody levels from each autoantibody along with their designations of positivity and negativity. RESULTS The ABRS was strongly predictive of T1D (hazard ratio [with 95% CI] 2.72 [2.23–3.31], P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve areas (with 95% CI) for the ABRS revealed good predictability (0.84 [0.78–0.90] at 2 years, 0.81 [0.74–0.89] at 3 years, P < 0.001 for both). The composite of levels from the five autoantibodies was predictive of T1D before and after an adjustment for the positivity or negativity of autoantibodies (P < 0.001). The findings were almost identical when ICA was excluded from the risk score model. The combination of the ABRS and the previously validated Diabetes Prevention Trial–Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS) predicted T1D more accurately (0.93 [0.88–0.98] at 2 years, 0.91 [0.83–0.99] at 3 years) than either the DPTRS or the ABRS alone (P ≤ 0.01 for all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS These findings show the importance of considering autoantibody levels in assessing the risk of T1D. Moreover, levels of multiple autoantibodies can be incorporated into an ABRS that accurately predicts T1D. PMID:23818528

Differentiating Community Dwellers at Risk for Pathological Narcissism From Community Dwellers at Risk for Psychopathy Using Measures of Emotion Recognition and Subjective Emotional Activation.

PubMed

Fossati, Andrea; Somma, Antonella; Pincus, Aaron; Borroni, Serena; Dowgwillo, Emily A

2017-06-01

The Italian translations of the Pathological Narcissism Inventory (PNI) and Triarchic Psychopathy Measure (TriPM) were administered to 609 community dwelling adults. Participants who scored in the upper 10% of the distribution of the PNI total score were assigned to the group of participants at risk for pathological narcissism, whereas participants who scored in the upper 10% of the distribution of the TriPM total score were assigned to the group of participants at risk for psychopathy. The final sample included 126 participants who were administered the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test (RMET) and emotion-eliciting movie clips. Participants at risk for pathological narcissism scored significantly lower on the RMET total score than participants who were not at risk for pathological narcissism. Participants at risk for psychopathy showed a significant reduction in the subjective experience of disgust, fear, sadness, and tenderness compared to participants who were not at risk for psychopathy.

Personalized Prognostic Risk Score for Long-Term Survival for Children with Acute Leukemia after Allogeneic Transplantation.

PubMed

Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary

2017-09-01

We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Two-Year Systematic Study To Assess Norovirus Contamination in Oysters from Commercial Harvesting Areas in the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

Gustar, Nicole E.; Powell, Andrew L.; Hartnell, Rachel E.; Lees, David N.

2012-01-01

The contamination of bivalve shellfish with norovirus from human fecal sources is recognized as an important human health risk. Standardized quantitative methods for the detection of norovirus in molluscan shellfish are now available, and viral standards are being considered in the European Union and internationally. This 2-year systematic study aimed to investigate the impact of the application of these methods to the monitoring of norovirus contamination in oyster production areas in the United Kingdom. Twenty-four monthly samples of oysters from 39 United Kingdom production areas, chosen to represent a range of potential contamination risk, were tested for norovirus genogroups I and II by using a quantitative real-time reverse transcription (RT)-PCR method. Norovirus was detected in 76.2% (643/844) of samples, with all sites returning at least one positive result. Both prevalences (presence or absence) and norovirus levels varied markedly between sites. However, overall, a marked winter seasonality of contamination by both prevalence and quantity was observed. Correlations were found between norovirus contamination and potential risk indicators, including harvesting area classifications, Escherichia coli scores, and environmental temperatures. A predictive risk score for norovirus contamination was developed by using a combination of these factors. In summary, this study, the largest of its type undertaken to date, provides a systematic analysis of norovirus contamination in commercial oyster production areas in the United Kingdom. The data should assist risk managers to develop control strategies to reduce the risk of human illness resulting from norovirus contamination of bivalve molluscs. PMID:22685151

Dietary Patterns Exhibit Sex-Specific Associations with Adiposity and Metabolic Risk in a Cross-Sectional Study in Urban Mexican Adolescents.

PubMed

Perng, Wei; Fernandez, Carmen; Peterson, Karen E; Zhang, ZhenZhen; Cantoral, Alejandra; Sanchez, Brisa N; Solano-González, Maritsa; Téllez-Rojo, Martha Maria; Baylin, Ana

2017-10-01

Background: Studies in Western nations have shown associations of certain dietary patterns with obesity and metabolic risk in youth. Little is known about these relations in newly industrialized countries where obesity prevalence is surpassing those of developed countries. Objective: We sought to characterize dietary patterns in a cross-sectional study in 224 adolescents aged 8-14 y in Mexico and to investigate associations of the dietary patterns with adiposity and metabolic risk. Methods: We used principal components analysis to derive dietary patterns from food-frequency questionnaire data. By using linear regression models that accounted for mother's marital status, education, and smoking habits and child's age and physical activity, we examined associations of the dietary patterns with adiposity [body mass index z score, waist circumference, the sum and ratio of the subscapular and triceps skinfold thicknesses, blood pressure, serum fasting glucose and a C-peptide-based measure of insulin resistance (CP-IR), lipid profile, and a metabolic syndrome risk z score (MetS z score)]. Results: We identified a "prudent" dietary pattern characterized by high intakes of vegetables, fruit, fish, chicken, and legumes and a "transitioning" dietary pattern, which comprises processed meats, Mexican foods, and sweetened beverages. Each unit increase in the prudent pattern factor score corresponded with 0.33 ng/mL (95% CI: 0.09, 0.57 ng/mL) lower C-peptide, 0.08 units (95% CI: 0.02, 0.13 units) lower CP-IR, and a 0.14 unit (0.00, 0.27 unit) lower MetS z score in boys. In girls, the transitioning pattern corresponded with higher subscapular + triceps skinfold thickness (per 1-unit increase in the factor score: 2.46 mm; 95% CI: 0.10, 4.81 mm). These results did not change after accounting for pubertal status. Conclusions: A prudent dietary pattern was protective against metabolic risk in adolescent boys, whereas a transitioning dietary pattern corresponded with higher adiposity among adolescent girls. Given that adolescence is a key developmental period for long-term health, efforts to elucidate dietary determinants of metabolic risk during this life stage may have long-term benefits. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

Association of a Dietary Score with Incident Type 2 Diabetes: The Dietary-Based Diabetes-Risk Score (DDS)

PubMed Central

Dominguez, Ligia J.; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira; Basterra-Gortari, Francisco Javier; Gea, Alfredo; Barbagallo, Mario; Martínez-González, Miguel A.

2015-01-01

Background Strong evidence supports that dietary modifications may decrease incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Numerous diabetes risk models/scores have been developed, but most do not rely specifically on dietary variables or do not fully capture the overall dietary pattern. We prospectively assessed the association of a dietary-based diabetes-risk score (DDS), which integrates optimal food patterns, with the risk of developing T2DM in the SUN (“Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra”) longitudinal study. Methods We assessed 17,292 participants initially free of diabetes, followed-up for a mean of 9.2 years. A validated 136-item FFQ was administered at baseline. Taking into account previous literature, the DDS positively weighted vegetables, fruit, whole cereals, nuts, coffee, low-fat dairy, fiber, PUFA, and alcohol in moderate amounts; while it negatively weighted red meat, processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages. Energy-adjusted quintiles of each item (with exception of moderate alcohol consumption that received either 0 or 5 points) were used to build the DDS (maximum: 60 points). Incident T2DM was confirmed through additional detailed questionnaires and review of medical records of participants. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for socio-demographic and anthropometric parameters, health-related habits, and clinical variables to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of T2DM. Results We observed 143 T2DM confirmed cases during follow-up. Better baseline conformity with the DDS was associated with lower incidence of T2DM (multivariable-adjusted HR for intermediate (25–39 points) vs. low (11–24) category 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21, 0.89]; and for high (40–60) vs. low category 0.32 [95% CI: 0.14, 0.69]; p for linear trend: 0.019). Conclusions The DDS, a simple score exclusively based on dietary components, showed a strong inverse association with incident T2DM. This score may be applicable in clinical practice to improve dietary habits of subjects at high risk of T2DM and also as an educational tool for laypeople to help them in self-assessing their future risk for developing diabetes. PMID:26544985

Bleeding Risk Profile in Patients With Symptomatic Peripheral Artery Disease.

PubMed

Baumann, Frederic; Husmann, Marc; Benenati, James F; Katzen, Barry T; Del Conde, Ian

2016-06-01

To assess the bleeding risk profile using the HAS-BLED score in patients with symptomatic peripheral artery disease (PAD). A post hoc analysis was performed using data from a series of 115 consecutive patients (mean age 72.4±11.4 years; 68 men) with symptomatic PAD undergoing endovascular revascularization. The endpoint of the study was to assess bleeding risk using the 9-point HAS-BLED score, which was previously validated in cohorts of patients with and without atrial fibrillation. For the purpose of this study, the low (0-1), intermediate (2), and high-risk (≥3) scores were stratified as low/intermediate risk (HAS-BLED <3) vs high risk (HAS-BLED ≥3). The mean HAS-BLED score was 2.76±1.16; 64 (56%) patients had a HAS-BLED score ≥3.0. Patients with PAD Rutherford category 5/6 ischemia had an even higher mean HAS-BLED score (3.20±1.12). Logistic regression analysis revealed aortoiliac or femoropopliteal segment involvement, chronic kidney disease, as well as Rutherford category 5/6, to be independent risk factors associated with a HAS-BLED score ≥3. Patients with PAD, especially those presenting with Rutherford category 5/6 ischemic symptoms, have high HAS-BLED scores, suggesting increased risk for major bleeding. Prospective clinical validation of the HAS-BLED score in patients with PAD may help with the risk-benefit assessment when prescribing antithrombotic therapy. © The Author(s) 2016.

Quantitative relationship between coronary artery calcium and myocardial blood flow by hybrid rubidium-82 PET/CT imaging in patients with suspected coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Assante, Roberta; Zampella, Emilia; Arumugam, Parthiban; Acampa, Wanda; Imbriaco, Massimo; Tout, Deborah; Petretta, Mario; Tonge, Christine; Cuocolo, Alberto

2017-04-01

We assessed the relationship between coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, myocardial blood flow (MBF) and coronary flow reserve (CFR) in patients undergoing hybrid 82 Rb positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) imaging for suspected CAD. We also evaluated if CAC score is able to predict a reduced CFR independently from conventional coronary risk factors. A total of 637 (mean age 58 ± 13 years) consecutive patients were studied. CAC score was measured according to the Agatston method and patients were categorized into 4 groups (0, 0.01-99.9, 100-399.9, and ≥400). Baseline and hyperemic MBF were automatically quantified. CFR was calculated as the ratio of hyperemic to baseline MBF and it was considered reduced when <2. Global CAC score showed a significant inverse correlation with hyperemic MBF and CFR (both P < .001), while no correlation between CAC score and baseline MBF was found. At multivariable logistic regression analysis age, diabetes and CAC score were independently associated with reduced CFR (all P < .001). The addition of CAC score to clinical data increased the global chi-square value for predicting reduced CFR from 81.01 to 91.13 (P < .01). Continuous net reclassification improvement, obtained by adding CAC score to clinical data, was 0.36. CAC score provides incremental information about coronary vascular function over established CAD risk factors in patients with suspected CAD and it might be helpful for identifying those with a reduced CFR.

A chemical risk ranking and scoring method for the selection of harmful substances to be specially controlled in occupational environments.

PubMed

Shin, Saemi; Moon, Hyung-Il; Lee, Kwon Seob; Hong, Mun Ki; Byeon, Sang-Hoon

2014-11-20

This study aimed to devise a method for prioritizing hazardous chemicals for further regulatory action. To accomplish this objective, we chose appropriate indicators and algorithms. Nine indicators from the Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labeling of Chemicals were used to identify categories to which the authors assigned numerical scores. Exposure indicators included handling volume, distribution, and exposure level. To test the method devised by this study, sixty-two harmful substances controlled by the Occupational Safety and Health Act in Korea, including acrylamide, acrylonitrile, and styrene were ranked using this proposed method. The correlation coefficients between total score and each indicator ranged from 0.160 to 0.641, and those between total score and hazard indicators ranged from 0.603 to 0.641. The latter were higher than the correlation coefficients between total score and exposure indicators, which ranged from 0.160 to 0.421. Correlations between individual indicators were low (-0.240 to 0.376), except for those between handling volume and distribution (0.613), suggesting that each indicator was not strongly correlated. The low correlations between each indicator mean that the indicators and independent and were well chosen for prioritizing harmful chemicals. This method proposed by this study can improve the cost efficiency of chemical management as utilized in occupational regulatory systems.

The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain.

PubMed

Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier

2015-03-01

In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Paediatric nutrition risk scores in clinical practice: children with inflammatory bowel disease.

PubMed

Wiskin, A E; Owens, D R; Cornelius, V R; Wootton, S A; Beattie, R M

2012-08-01

There has been increasing interest in the use of nutrition risk assessment tools in paediatrics to identify those who need nutrition support. Four non-disease specific screening tools have been developed, although there is a paucity of data on their application in clinical practice and the degree of inter-tool agreement. The concurrent validity of four nutrition screening tools [Screening Tool for the Assessment of Malnutrition in Paediatrics (STAMP), Screening Tool for Risk On Nutritional status and Growth (STRONGkids), Paediatric Yorkhill Malnutrition Score (PYMS) and Simple Paediatric Nutrition Risk Score (PNRS)] was examined in 46 children with inflammatory bowel disease. Degree of malnutrition was determined by anthropometry alone using World Health Organization International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) criteria. There was good agreement between STAMP, STRONGkids and PNRS (kappa > 0.6) but there was only modest agreement between PYMS and the other scores (kappa = 0.3). No children scored low risk with STAMP, STRONGkids or PNRS; however, 23 children scored low risk with PYMS. There was no agreement between the risk tools and the degree of malnutrition based on anthropometric data (kappa < 0.1). Three children had anthropometry consistent with malnutrition and these were all scored high risk. Four children had body mass index SD scores < -2, one of which was scored at low nutrition risk. The relevance of nutrition screening tools for children with chronic disease is unclear. In addition, there is the potential to under recognise nutritional impairment (and therefore nutritional risk) in children with inflammatory bowel disease. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Human Nutrition and Dietetics © 2012 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Risk score for first-screening of prevalent undiagnosed chronic kidney disease in Peru: the CRONICAS-CKD risk score.

PubMed

Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M; Miranda, J Jaime; Gilman, Robert H; Medina-Lezama, Josefina; Chirinos-Pacheco, Julio A; Muñoz-Retamozo, Paola V; Smeeth, Liam; Checkley, William; Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio

2017-11-29

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) represents a great burden for the patient and the health system, particularly if diagnosed at late stages. Consequently, tools to identify patients at high risk of having CKD are needed, particularly in limited-resources settings where laboratory facilities are scarce. This study aimed to develop a risk score for prevalent undiagnosed CKD using data from four settings in Peru: a complete risk score including all associated risk factors and another excluding laboratory-based variables. Cross-sectional study. We used two population-based studies: one for developing and internal validation (CRONICAS), and another (PREVENCION) for external validation. Risk factors included clinical- and laboratory-based variables, among others: sex, age, hypertension and obesity; and lipid profile, anemia and glucose metabolism. The outcome was undiagnosed CKD: eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73m 2 . We tested the performance of the risk scores using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative predictive values and positive/negative likelihood ratios. Participants in both studies averaged 57.7 years old, and over 50% were females. Age, hypertension and anemia were strongly associated with undiagnosed CKD. In the external validation, at a cut-off point of 2, the complete and laboratory-free risk scores performed similarly well with a ROC area of 76.2% and 76.0%, respectively (P = 0.784). The best assessment parameter of these risk scores was their negative predictive value: 99.1% and 99.0% for the complete and laboratory-free, respectively. The developed risk scores showed a moderate performance as a screening test. People with a score of ≥ 2 points should undergo further testing to rule out CKD. Using the laboratory-free risk score is a practical approach in developing countries where laboratories are not readily available and undiagnosed CKD has significant morbidity and mortality.

Assessment of total cardiovascular risk using WHO/ISH risk prediction charts in three low and middle income countries in Asia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Recent research has used cardiovascular risk scores intended to estimate “total cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk” in individuals to assess the distribution of risk within populations. The research suggested that the adoption of the total risk approach, in comparison to treatment decisions being based on the level of a single risk factor, could lead to reductions in expenditure on preventive cardiovascular drug treatment in low- and middle-income countries. So that the patient benefit associated with savings is highlighted. Methods This study used data from national STEPS surveys (STEPwise Approach to Surveillance) conducted between 2005 and 2010 in Cambodia, Malaysia and Mongolia of men and women aged 40–64 years. The study compared the differences and implications of various approaches to risk estimation at a population level using the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk score charts. To aid interpretation and adjustment of scores and inform treatment in individuals, the charts are accompanied by practice notes about risk factors not included in the risk score calculations. Total risk was calculated amongst the populations using the charts alone and also adjusted according to these notes. Prevalence of traditional single risk factors was also calculated. Results The prevalence of WHO/ISH “high CVD risk” (≥20% chance of developing a cardiovascular event over 10 years) of 6%, 2.3% and 1.3% in Mongolia, Malaysia and Cambodia, respectively, is in line with recent research when charts alone are used. However, these proportions rise to 33.3%, 20.8% and 10.4%, respectively when individuals with blood pressure > = 160/100 mm/Hg and/or hypertension medication are attributed to “high risk”. Of those at “moderate risk” (10- < 20% chance of developing a cardio vascular event over 10 years), 100%, 94.3% and 30.1%, respectively are affected by at least one risk-increasing factor. Of all individuals, 44.6%, 29.0% and 15.0% are affected by hypertension as a single risk factor (systolic ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic ≥ 90 mmHg or medication). Conclusions Used on a population level, cardiovascular risk scores may offer useful insights that can assist health service delivery planning. An approach based on overall risk without adjustment of specific risk factors however, may underestimate treatment needs. At the individual level, the total risk approach offers important clinical benefits. However, countries need to develop appropriate clinical guidelines and operational guidance for detection and management of CVD risk using total CVD-risk approach at different levels of health system. Operational research is needed to assess implementation issues. PMID:23734670

Risk assessment of Pakistani individuals for diabetes (RAPID).

PubMed

Riaz, Musarrat; Basit, Abdul; Hydrie, Muhammad Zafar Iqbal; Shaheen, Fariha; Hussain, Akhtar; Hakeem, Rubina; Shera, Abdus Samad

2012-12-01

To develop and evaluate a risk score to predict people at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes in Pakistan. Cross sectional data regarding primary prevention of diabetes in Pakistan. Diabetes risk score was developed by using simple parameters namely age, waist circumference, and family history of diabetes. Odds ratios of the model were used to assign a score value for each variable and the diabetes risk score was calculated as the sum of those scores. We externally validated the score using two data from 1264 subjects and 856 subjects aged 25 years and above from two separate studies respectively. Validating this score using the first data from the second screening study gave an area under the receive operator characteristics curve [AROC] of 0.758. A cut point of 4 had a sensitivity of 47.0% and specificity of 88% and in the second data AROC is 0.7 with 44% sensitivity and 89% specificity. A simple diabetes risk score, based on a set of variables can be used for the identification of high risk individuals for early intervention to delay or prevent type 2 diabetes in Pakistani population. Copyright © 2012 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital

PubMed Central

Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W.; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E.

2014-01-01

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions. PMID:25404329

Predictive accuracy of combined genetic and environmental risk scores.

PubMed

Dudbridge, Frank; Pashayan, Nora; Yang, Jian

2018-02-01

The substantial heritability of most complex diseases suggests that genetic data could provide useful risk prediction. To date the performance of genetic risk scores has fallen short of the potential implied by heritability, but this can be explained by insufficient sample sizes for estimating highly polygenic models. When risk predictors already exist based on environment or lifestyle, two key questions are to what extent can they be improved by adding genetic information, and what is the ultimate potential of combined genetic and environmental risk scores? Here, we extend previous work on the predictive accuracy of polygenic scores to allow for an environmental score that may be correlated with the polygenic score, for example when the environmental factors mediate the genetic risk. We derive common measures of predictive accuracy and improvement as functions of the training sample size, chip heritabilities of disease and environmental score, and genetic correlation between disease and environmental risk factors. We consider simple addition of the two scores and a weighted sum that accounts for their correlation. Using examples from studies of cardiovascular disease and breast cancer, we show that improvements in discrimination are generally small but reasonable degrees of reclassification could be obtained with current sample sizes. Correlation between genetic and environmental scores has only minor effects on numerical results in realistic scenarios. In the longer term, as the accuracy of polygenic scores improves they will come to dominate the predictive accuracy compared to environmental scores. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Predictive accuracy of combined genetic and environmental risk scores

PubMed Central

Pashayan, Nora; Yang, Jian

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT The substantial heritability of most complex diseases suggests that genetic data could provide useful risk prediction. To date the performance of genetic risk scores has fallen short of the potential implied by heritability, but this can be explained by insufficient sample sizes for estimating highly polygenic models. When risk predictors already exist based on environment or lifestyle, two key questions are to what extent can they be improved by adding genetic information, and what is the ultimate potential of combined genetic and environmental risk scores? Here, we extend previous work on the predictive accuracy of polygenic scores to allow for an environmental score that may be correlated with the polygenic score, for example when the environmental factors mediate the genetic risk. We derive common measures of predictive accuracy and improvement as functions of the training sample size, chip heritabilities of disease and environmental score, and genetic correlation between disease and environmental risk factors. We consider simple addition of the two scores and a weighted sum that accounts for their correlation. Using examples from studies of cardiovascular disease and breast cancer, we show that improvements in discrimination are generally small but reasonable degrees of reclassification could be obtained with current sample sizes. Correlation between genetic and environmental scores has only minor effects on numerical results in realistic scenarios. In the longer term, as the accuracy of polygenic scores improves they will come to dominate the predictive accuracy compared to environmental scores. PMID:29178508

Perineural invasion is associated with increased relapse after external beam radiotherapy for men with low-risk prostate cancer and may be a marker for occult, high-grade cancer.

PubMed

Beard, C J; Chen, M H; Cote, K; Loffredo, M; Renshaw, A A; Hurwitz, M; D'Amico, A V

2004-01-01

To investigate the risk of postradiotherapy prostate-specific antigen (PSA) failure on the basis of pretreatment risk factors in prostate cancer patients with and without perineural invasion (PNI) in prostate biopsy specimens and to explain the observation that otherwise low-risk patients with PNI experience decreased freedom from PSA failure after external beam radiotherapy (RT). The study cohort consisted of 381 patients who underwent RT between 1989 and 2000 for clinically localized prostate cancer. A single genitourinary pathologist scored the absence or presence of PNI on all prostate biopsy specimens. Patients were divided into low-, intermediate- and high-risk subgroups on the basis of their 1992 American Joint Committee on Cancer T-stage, pretreatment PSA level, and Gleason score. Cox regression uni- and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate whether the presence or absence of PNI in the biopsy specimen was a predictor of the time to post-RT PSA failure for patients in each pretreatment risk group. PSA failure was defined using the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology consensus definition. Actuarial PSA failure-free survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and comparisons were performed using the log-rank test. Cox regression univariate analysis revealed that PNI was a significant predictor of the time to PSA failure in the low-risk (p = 0.04) and high-risk (p = 0.03) cohorts. The 5-year PSA failure-free survival rate was 50% vs. 80% (p = 0.04) in low-risk patients, 70% vs. 75% (p = 0.72) in intermediate-risk patients, and 29% vs. 53% (p = 0.03) in high-risk patients with and without PNI, respectively. Cox regression multivariate analysis within the high-risk group revealed that a PSA level > or =20 ng/mL (p = 0.01) and Gleason score > or =8 (p = 0.02), but not PNI, were the only significant predictors of the time to PSA failure after RT. However, an association was found between the presence of PNI in the needle biopsy specimen and a biopsy Gleason score of 8-10 (p = 0.06). The association was stronger between the presence of PNI in the needle biopsy specimen and a biopsy Gleason score of 7-10 (p = 0. 033). A decrement in PSA outcome after RT for low-risk patients with PNI-positive biopsy specimens was found. The association between PNI and high Gleason score provides a possible explanation for the loss of statistical significance of PNI in the Cox regression multivariate analysis of the high-risk cohort. The data suggest that PNI found in the biopsy specimen of an otherwise low-risk patient predicts for occult high-grade disease that is missed owing to the sampling error associated with prostate biopsy. The association between PNI and a high Gleason score argues for the use of more aggressive therapy, such as hormonal therapy with RT and/or dose escalation, in these select patients.

Underestimation of Risk of a BRCA1 or BRCA2 Mutation in Women With High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer by BRCAPRO: A Multi-Institution Study

PubMed Central

Daniels, Molly S.; Babb, Sheri A.; King, Robin H.; Urbauer, Diana L.; Batte, Brittany A.L.; Brandt, Amanda C.; Amos, Christopher I.; Buchanan, Adam H.; Mutch, David G.; Lu, Karen H.

2014-01-01

Purpose Identification of the 10% to 15% of patients with ovarian cancer who have germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations is important for management of both patients and relatives. The BRCAPRO model, which estimates mutation likelihood based on personal and family cancer history, can inform genetic testing decisions. This study's purpose was to assess the accuracy of BRCAPRO in women with ovarian cancer. Methods BRCAPRO scores were calculated for 589 patients with ovarian cancer referred for genetic counseling at three institutions. Observed mutations were compared with those predicted by BRCAPRO. Analysis of variance was used to assess factors impacting BRCAPRO accuracy. Results One hundred eighty (31%) of 589 patients with ovarian cancer tested positive. At BRCAPRO scores less than 40%, more mutations were observed than expected (93 mutations observed v 34.1 mutations expected; P < .001). If patients with BRCAPRO scores less than 10% had not been tested, 51 (28%) of 180 mutations would have been missed. BRCAPRO underestimated the risk for high-grade serous ovarian cancers but overestimated the risk for other histologies (P < .001), underestimation increased as age at diagnosis decreased (P = .02), and model performance varied by institution (P = .02). Conclusion Patients with ovarian cancer classified as low risk by BRCAPRO are more likely to test positive than predicted. The risk of a mutation in patients with low BRCAPRO scores is high enough to warrant genetic testing. This study demonstrates that assessment of family history by a validated model cannot effectively target testing to a high-risk ovarian cancer patient population, which strongly supports the recommendation to offer BRCA1/BRCA2 genetic testing to all patients with high-grade serous ovarian cancer regardless of family history. PMID:24638001

Pretreatment Nomogram to Predict the Risk of Acute Urinary Retention After I-125 Prostate Brachytherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roeloffzen, Ellen M., E-mail: e.m.a.roeloffzen@umcutrecht.nl; Vulpen, Marco van; Battermann, Jan J.

Purpose: Acute urinary retention (AUR) after iodine-125 (I-125) prostate brachytherapy negatively influences long-term quality of life and therefore should be prevented. We aimed to develop a nomogram to preoperatively predict the risk of AUR. Methods: Using the preoperative data of 714 consecutive patients who underwent I-125 prostate brachytherapy between 2005 and 2008 at our department, we modeled the probability of AUR. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the predictive ability of a set of pretreatment predictors and the additional value of a new risk factor (the extent of prostate protrusion into the bladder). The performance of the finalmore » model was assessed with calibration and discrimination measures. Results: Of the 714 patients, 57 patients (8.0%) developed AUR after implantation. Multivariate analysis showed that the combination of prostate volume, IPSS score, neoadjuvant hormonal treatment and the extent of prostate protrusion contribute to the prediction of AUR. The discriminative value (receiver operator characteristic area, ROC) of the basic model (including prostate volume, International Prostate Symptom Score, and neoadjuvant hormonal treatment) to predict the development of AUR was 0.70. The addition of prostate protrusion significantly increased the discriminative power of the model (ROC 0.82). Calibration of this final model was good. The nomogram showed that among patients with a low sum score (<18 points), the risk of AUR was only 0%-5%. However, in patients with a high sum score (>35 points), the risk of AUR was more than 20%. Conclusion: This nomogram is a useful tool for physicians to predict the risk of AUR after I-125 prostate brachytherapy. The nomogram can aid in individualized treatment decision-making and patient counseling.« less

Predicting the Individual Risk of Acute Severe Colitis at Diagnosis

PubMed Central

Cesarini, Monica; Collins, Gary S.; Rönnblom, Anders; Santos, Antonieta; Wang, Lai Mun; Sjöberg, Daniel; Parkes, Miles; Keshav, Satish

2017-01-01

Abstract Background and Aims: Acute severe colitis [ASC] is associated with major morbidity. We aimed to develop and externally validate an index that predicted ASC within 3 years of diagnosis. Methods: The development cohort included patients aged 16–89 years, diagnosed with ulcerative colitis [UC] in Oxford and followed for 3 years. Primary outcome was hospitalization for ASC, excluding patients admitted within 1 month of diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression examined the adjusted association of seven risk factors with ASC. Backwards elimination produced a parsimonious model that was simplified to create an easy-to-use index. External validation occurred in separate cohorts from Cambridge, UK, and Uppsala, Sweden. Results: The development cohort [Oxford] included 34/111 patients who developed ASC within a median 14 months [range 1–29]. The final model applied the sum of 1 point each for extensive disease, C-reactive protein [CRP] > 10mg/l, or haemoglobin < 12g/dl F or < 14g/dl M at diagnosis, to give a score from 0/3 to 3/3. This predicted a 70% risk of developing ASC within 3 years [score 3/3]. Validation cohorts included different proportions with ASC [Cambridge = 25/96; Uppsala = 18/298]. Of those scoring 3/3 at diagnosis, 18/18 [Cambridge] and 12/13 [Uppsala] subsequently developed ASC. Discriminant ability [c-index, where 1.0 = perfect discrimination] was 0.81 [Oxford], 0.95 [Cambridge], 0.97 [Uppsala]. Internal validation using bootstrapping showed good calibration, with similar predicted risk across all cohorts. A nomogram predicted individual risk. Conclusions: An index applied at diagnosis reliably predicts the risk of ASC within 3 years in different populations. Patients with a score 3/3 at diagnosis may merit early immunomodulator therapy. PMID:27647858

Prognostic discrimination for early chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia in imatinib era: comparison of Sokal, Euro, and EUTOS scores in Korean population.

PubMed

Yahng, Seung-Ah; Jang, Eun-Jung; Choi, Soo-Young; Lee, Sung-Eun; Kim, Soo-Hyun; Kim, Dong-Wook

2014-08-01

Beyond the conventional Sokal and Euro scores, a new prognostic risk classification, based on the European Treatment Outcome Study (EUTOS), has been developed to predict the outcome of treatment with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). In the present study, each risk score was validated by various endpoints in 206 Korean patients with early chronic-phase CML treated with up-front standard dose imatinib. In our analysis, all three scores were found to be valid. The 5-year event-free survival (EFS) was significantly discriminated using Sokal (P = 0.002), Euro (P = 0.003), and EUTOS (P = 0.029), with the worst probability by Euro high-risk (62 vs. 49 vs. 67 %) and better EFS in Sokal low-risk (89 vs. 86 vs. 82 %). Combining all scores identified 6 % of all patients having homogeneous high-risk with distinctively worse outcomes (5-year EFS of 41 %, cumulative complete cytogenetic response rate of 56 %, and cumulative major molecular response rate of 27 %), whereas the group of discordance in risk scores (60 %) had similar results to those of intermediate-risk groups of Sokal and Euro scores. Combining all risk scores for baseline risk assessment may be useful in clinical practice for identifying groups of patients who may benefit from treatment initiation with a more potent TKI among the currently available first-line TKIs.

Mortality Risk After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: Analysis of the Predictive Accuracy of the Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry Risk Assessment Model.

PubMed

Codner, Pablo; Malick, Waqas; Kouz, Remi; Patel, Amisha; Chen, Cheng-Han; Terre, Juan; Landes, Uri; Vahl, Torsten Peter; George, Isaac; Nazif, Tamim; Kirtane, Ajay J; Khalique, Omar K; Hahn, Rebecca T; Leon, Martin B; Kodali, Susheel

2018-05-08

Risk assessment tools currently used to predict mortality in transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) were designed for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We aim to assess the accuracy of the TAVI dedicated American College of Cardiology / Transcatheter Valve Therapies (ACC/TVT) risk score in predicting mortality outcomes. Consecutive patients (n=1038) undergoing TAVI at a single institution from 2014 to 2016 were included. The ACC/TVT registry mortality risk score, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons - Patient Reported Outcomes (STS-PROM) score and the EuroSCORE II were calculated for all patients. In hospital and 30-day all-cause mortality rates were 1.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The ACC/TVT risk stratification tool scored higher for patients who died in-hospital than in those who survived the index hospitalization (6.4 ± 4.6 vs. 3.5 ± 1.6, p = 0.03; respectively). The ACC/TVT score showed a high level of discrimination, C-index for in-hospital mortality 0.74, 95% CI [0.59 - 0.88]. There were no significant differences between the performance of the ACC/TVT registry risk score, the EuroSCORE II and the STS-PROM for in hospital and 30-day mortality rates. The ACC/TVT registry risk model is a dedicated tool to aid in the prediction of in-hospital mortality risk after TAVI.

Underestimation of Risk of Carotid Subclinical Atherosclerosis by Cardiovascular Risk Scores in Patients with Psoriatic Arthritis.

PubMed

Shen, Jiayun; Lam, Steven H; Shang, Qing; Wong, Chun-Kwok; Li, Edmund K; Wong, Priscilla; Kun, Emily W; Cheng, Isaac T; Li, Martin; Li, Tena K; Zhu, Tracy Y; Lee, Jack Jock-Wai; Chang, Mimi; Lee, Alex Pui-Wai; Tam, Lai-Shan

2018-02-01

To test the performances of established cardiovascular (CV) risk scores in discriminating subclinical atherosclerosis (SCA) in patients with psoriatic arthritis. These scores were calculated: Framingham risk score (FRS), QRISK2, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk algorithm (ASCVD) from the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association, and the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)-recommended modified versions (by 1.5 multiplication factor, m-). Carotid intima-media thickness > 0.9 mm and/or the presence of plaque determined by ultrasound were classified as SCA+. We recruited 146 patients [49.4 ± 10.2 yrs, male: 90 (61.6%)], of whom 142/137/128/118 patients were eligible to calculate FRS/QRISK2/SCORE/ASCVD. Further, 62 (42.5%) patients were SCA+ and were significantly older, with higher systolic blood pressure and higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (all p < 0.05). All CV risk scores were significantly higher in patients with SCA+ [FRS: 7.8 (3.9-16.5) vs 2.7 (1.1-7.8), p < 0.001; QRISK2: 5.5 (3.1-10.2) vs 2.9 (1.2-6.3), p < 0.001; SCORE: 1 (0-2) vs 0 (0-1), p < 0.001; ASCVD: 5.6 (2.6-12.4) vs 3.4 (1.4-6.1), p = 0.001]. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed moderate goodness of fit for the 4 CV scores (p ranged from 0.087 to 0.686). However, of the patients with SCA+, those identified as high risk were only 44.1% (by FRS > 10%), 1.8% (QRISK2 > 20%), 10.9% (SCORE > 5%), and 43.6% (ASCVD > 7.5%). By applying the EULAR multiplication factor, 50.8%/14.3%/14.5%/54.5% of the patients with SCA+ were identified as high risk by m-FRS/m-QRISK2/m-SCORE/m-ASCVD, respectively. EULAR modification increased the sensitivity of FRS and ASCVD in discriminating SCA+ from 44% to 51%, and 44% to 55%, respectively. All CV risk scores underestimated the SCA+ risk. EULAR-recommended modification improved the sensitivity of FRS and ASCVD only to a moderate level.

Incorporating Known Genetic Variants Does Not Improve the Accuracy of PSA Testing to Identify High Risk Prostate Cancer on Biopsy

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Rebecca; Martin, Richard M.; Evans, David M.; Tilling, Kate; Davey Smith, George; Kemp, John P.; Lane, J. Athene; Hamdy, Freddie C.; Neal, David E.; Donovan, Jenny L.; Metcalfe, Chris

2015-01-01

Introduction Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing is a widely accepted screening method for prostate cancer, but with low specificity at thresholds giving good sensitivity. Previous research identified four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) principally associated with circulating PSA levels rather than with prostate cancer risk (TERT rs2736098, FGFR2 rs10788160, TBX3 rs11067228, KLK3 rs17632542). Removing the genetic contribution to PSA levels may improve the ability of the remaining biologically-determined variation in PSA to discriminate between high and low risk of progression within men with identified prostate cancer. We investigate whether incorporating information on the PSA-SNPs improves the discrimination achieved by a single PSA threshold in men with raised PSA levels. Materials and Methods Men with PSA between 3-10ng/mL and histologically-confirmed prostate cancer were categorised as high or low risk of progression (Low risk: Gleason score≤6 and stage T1-T2a; High risk: Gleason score 7–10 or stage T2C). We used the combined genetic effect of the four PSA-SNPs to calculate a genetically corrected PSA risk score. We calculated the Area under the Curve (AUC) to determine how well genetically corrected PSA risk scores distinguished men at high risk of progression from low risk men. Results The analysis includes 868 men with prostate cancer (Low risk: 684 (78.8%); High risk: 184 (21.2%)). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves indicate that including the 4 PSA-SNPs does not improve the performance of measured PSA as a screening tool for high/low risk prostate cancer (measured PSA level AU C = 59.5% (95% CI: 54.7,64.2) vs additionally including information from the 4 PSA-SNPs AUC = 59.8% (95% CI: 55.2,64.5) (p-value = 0.40)). Conclusion We demonstrate that genetically correcting PSA for the combined genetic effect of four PSA-SNPs, did not improve discrimination between high and low risk prostate cancer in men with raised PSA levels (3-10ng/mL). Replication and gaining more accurate estimates of the effects of the 4 PSA-SNPs and additional variants associated with PSA levels and not prostate cancer could be obtained from subsequent GWAS from larger prospective studies. PMID:26431041

Pediatric quality of life in long-term survivors of childhood cancer treated with anthracyclines.

PubMed

Ryerson, A Blythe; Wasilewski-Masker, Karen; Border, William L; Goodman, Michael; Meacham, Lillian; Austin, Harland; Marchak, Jordan Gilleland; Mertens, Ann C

2016-12-01

Anthracyclines are a common class of drugs used to treat pediatric cancer. While much attention is given to their cardiotoxicity, little is known about the relationship between the use of anthracyclines and health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) outcomes. This study examines the association of anthracycline cardiotoxicity risk status and Pediatric Quality-of-Life (PedsQL) Inventory TM scores in childhood cancer METHODS: Pediatric cancer survivors aged 8-21 who were at least 5 years posttreatment were recruited from a Cancer Survivor Clinic. Participants completed the PedsQL 4.0 Generic Core Scales and a health behavior survey. Linear regression was used to evaluate the association between PedsQL scores and anthracycline cardiotoxicity risk status and to assess whether self-reported physical activity modified the association. Eighty survivors participated and were characterized by cardiotoxicity risk status (high: 12; moderate: 23, low: 24, no risk: 21) as defined by the Children's Oncology Group (COG). Measures in all PedsQL domains tended to be slightly lower for survivors exposed to anthracyclines as compared to the unexposed. The largest difference in unadjusted mean scores was for social functioning (96.0% for unexposed vs. 91.3% for exposed, P = 0.0068). There was also an inverse dose-response relation between adjusted PedsQL scores and increasing anthracycline cardiotoxicity risk; this association was not modified by physical activity level. These data indicate that regular psychosocial assessments, such as those currently recommended by the COG, may be especially important for survivors treated with anthracyclines. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Case report: a balance training program using the Nintendo Wii Fit to reduce fall risk in an older adult with bilateral peripheral neuropathy.

PubMed

Hakim, Renée Marie; Salvo, Charles J; Balent, Anthony; Keyasko, Michael; McGlynn, Deidre

2015-02-01

A recent systematic review supported the use of strength and balance training for older adults at risk for falls, and provided preliminary evidence for those with peripheral neuropathy (PN). However, the role of gaming systems in fall risk reduction was not explored. The purpose of this case report was to describe the use of the Nintendo® Wii™ Fit gaming system to train standing balance in a community-dwelling older adult with PN and a history of recurrent near falls. A 76-year-old patient with bilateral PN participated in 1 h of Nintendo® Wii™ Fit balance training, two times a week for 6 weeks. Examination was conducted using a Computerized Dynamic Posturography system (i.e. Sensory Organization Test (SOT), Limits of Stability (LOS), Adaptation Test (ADT) and Motor Control Test (MCT) and clinical testing with the Berg Balance Scale (BBS), Timed Up and Go (TUG), Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale and 30-s Chair Stand. Following training, sensory integration scores on the SOT were unchanged. Maximum excursion abilities improved by a range of 37-86% on the LOS test. MCT scores improved for amplitude with forward translations and ADT scores improved for downward platform rotations. Clinical scores improved on the BBS (28/56-34/56), ABC (57.5-70.6%) and TUG (14.9-10.9 s) which indicated reduced fall risk. Balance training with a gaming system showed promise as a feasible, objective and enjoyable method to improve physical performance and reduce fall risk in an individual with PN.

Sexual abuse prevention with high-risk males: the roles of victim empathy and rape myths.

PubMed

Schewe, P A; O'Donohue, W

1993-01-01

The outcome of two sexual abuse prevention programs, one emphasizing victim empathy and the other stressing modifying rape myths, was evaluated with high-risk males. Sixty-eight high-risk males, as determined by self-reported likelihood of committing sexual abuse, were randomly assigned to an empathy-treatment, a facts-treatment, or a no-treatment control group. Treatment effects were assessed using subjects' pre- and post-treatment scores on the Likelihood of Sexually Abusing scale, the Rape Empathy Scale, the Acceptance of Interpersonal Violence scale, the Adversarial Sexual Beliefs Scale, and a test of self-reported sexual arousal to forced versus consenting sex. In addition, posttest scores on an Asch-type conformity measure were obtained. Results of validity checks indicated that high-risk subjects differed from low-risk subjects on a number of rape-related variables, that the victim-empathy condition increased subjects' empathy, and that subjects found both treatments to be credible and helpful. Comparisons between the empathy-, facts-, and no-treatment group contraindicated the practice of dispelling rape myths as a method of preventing rape among high-risk males.

Security risk assessment: applying the concepts of fuzzy logic.

PubMed

Bajpai, Shailendra; Sachdeva, Anish; Gupta, J P

2010-01-15

Chemical process industries (CPI) handling hazardous chemicals in bulk can be attractive targets for deliberate adversarial actions by terrorists, criminals and disgruntled employees. It is therefore imperative to have comprehensive security risk management programme including effective security risk assessment techniques. In an earlier work, it has been shown that security risk assessment can be done by conducting threat and vulnerability analysis or by developing Security Risk Factor Table (SRFT). HAZOP type vulnerability assessment sheets can be developed that are scenario based. In SRFT model, important security risk bearing factors such as location, ownership, visibility, inventory, etc., have been used. In this paper, the earlier developed SRFT model has been modified using the concepts of fuzzy logic. In the modified SRFT model, two linguistic fuzzy scales (three-point and four-point) are devised based on trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Human subjectivity of different experts associated with previous SRFT model is tackled by mapping their scores to the newly devised fuzzy scale. Finally, the fuzzy score thus obtained is defuzzyfied to get the results. A test case of a refinery is used to explain the method and compared with the earlier work.

Observational study to calculate addictive risk to opioids: a validation study of a predictive algorithm to evaluate opioid use disorder

PubMed Central

Brenton, Ashley; Richeimer, Steven; Sharma, Maneesh; Lee, Chee; Kantorovich, Svetlana; Blanchard, John; Meshkin, Brian

2017-01-01

Background Opioid abuse in chronic pain patients is a major public health issue, with rapidly increasing addiction rates and deaths from unintentional overdose more than quadrupling since 1999. Purpose This study seeks to determine the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm incorporating phenotypic risk factors and neuroscience-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Patients and methods The Proove Opioid Risk (POR) algorithm determines the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm incorporating phenotypic risk factors and neuroscience-associated SNPs. In a validation study with 258 subjects with diagnosed opioid use disorder (OUD) and 650 controls who reported using opioids, the POR successfully categorized patients at high and moderate risks of opioid misuse or abuse with 95.7% sensitivity. Regardless of changes in the prevalence of opioid misuse or abuse, the sensitivity of POR remained >95%. Conclusion The POR correctly stratifies patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories to appropriately identify patients at need for additional guidance, monitoring, or treatment changes. PMID:28572737

Relationship between risk factors and activities of daily living using modified Shah Barthel Index in stroke patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusumaningsih, W.; Rachmayanti, S.; Werdhani, R. A.

2017-08-01

Hypertension and diabetes mellitus are the most common risk factors of stroke. The study aimed to determine the relationship between hypertension and diabetes mellitus risk factors and dependence on assistance with activities of daily living in chronic stroke patients. The study used an analytical observational cross-sectional design. The study’s sample included 44 stroke patients selected using the quota sampling method. The relationship between the variables was analyzed using the bivariate chi-squared test and multivariate logistic regression. Based on the chi-squared test, the relationship between the Modified Shah Barthel Index (MSBI) score and hypertension and diabetes mellitus as stroke risk factors, were p = 0.122 and p = 0.002, respectively. The logistic regression results suggest that hypertension and diabetes mellitus are stroke risk factors related to the MSBI score: p = 0.076 (OR 4.076; CI 95% 0.861-19.297) and p = 0.007 (OR 22.690; CI 95% 2.332-220.722), respectively. Diabetes mellitus is the most prominent risk factor of severe dependency on assistance with activities of daily living in chronic stroke patients.

[Development of HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men based on Delphi method].

PubMed

Li, L L; Jiang, Z; Song, W L; Ding, Y Y; Xu, J; He, N

2017-10-10

Objective: To develop a HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men (MSM) based on Delphi method. Methods: After an exhaustive literature review, we used Delphi method to determine the specific items and relative risk scores of the assessment tool through two rounds of specialist consultation and overall consideration of the opinions and suggestions of 17 specialists. Results: The positivity coefficient through first and second round specialist consultation was 100.0 % and 94.1 % , respectively. The mean of authority coefficients ( Cr ) was 0.86. Kendall's W coefficient of the specialist consultation was 0.55 for the first round consultation (χ(2)=84.426, P <0.001) and 0.46 for the second round consultation (χ(2)=65.734, P <0.001), respectively, suggesting that the specialists had similar opinions. The final HIV infection risk assessment tool for MSM has 8 items. Conclusions: The HIV infection risk assessment tool for MSM, developed under the Delphi method, can be used in the evaluation of HIV infection risk in MSM and individualized prevention and intervention. However, the reliability and validity of this risk assessment tool need to be further evaluated.

The value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for refining stroke risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation with a CHADS2 score 0-1: a nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Hansen, Morten Lock; Lip, Gregory Y H

2012-06-01

North American and European guidelines on atrial fibrillation (AF) are conflicting regarding the classification of patients at low/intermediate risk of stroke. We aimed to investigate if the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved risk stratification of AF patients with a CHADS2 score of 0-1. Using individual-level-linkage of nationwide Danish registries 1997-2008, we identified patients discharged with AF having a CHADS2 score of 0-1 and not treated with vitamin K antagonist or heparin. In patients with a CHADS2 score of 0, 1, and 0-1, rates of stroke/ thromboembolism were determined according to CHA2DS2-VASc score, and the risk associated with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score was estimated in Cox regression models adjusted for year of inclusion and antiplatelet therapy. The value of adding the extra CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors to the CHADS2 score was evaluated by c-statistics, Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) and Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI). We included 47,576 patients with a CHADS2 score of 0-1, from these 7,536 (15.8%) were CHA2DS2-VASc score=0, 10,062 (21.2%) were CHA2DS2-VASc score=1, 14,310 (30.1%) were CHA2DS2-VASc score=2, 14,188 (29.8%) were CHA2DS2-VASc score=3, and 1,480 (3.1%) were CHA2DS2-VASc score=4. Of the cohort with a CHADS2 score of 0-1, the stroke/thromboembolism rate per 100 person-years increased with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score (95% confidence interval): 0.84 (0.65-1.08), 1.79 (1.53-2.09), 3.67 (3.34-4.03), 5.75 (5.33-6.21), and 8.18 (6.68-10.02) at one year follow-up with CHA2DS2-VASc scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Patients with a CHADS2 score=0 were not all 'low risk', with one-year event rates ranging from 0.84 (CHA2DS2-VASc score=0) to 3.2 (CHA2DS2-VASc score=3). Results from Cox regression analyses, NRI, and IDI confirmed the improved predictive ability of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in the AF patients who have a CHADS2 score of 0-1. In conclusion, the CHA2DS2-VASc provides critical information on risk of stroke in AF patients with a CHADS2 score of 0-1 that can aid a decision of using anticoagulation. Even in patients categorised as 'low risk' using a CHADS2 score=0, the CHA2DS2-VASc score significantly improved the predictive value of the CHADS2 score alone and a CHA2DS2-VASc score=0 could clearly identify 'truly low risk' subjects. Use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score would significantly improve classification of AF patients at low and intermediate risk of stroke, compared to the commonly used CHADS2 score.

Voice deviation, dysphonia risk screening and quality of life in individuals with various laryngeal diagnoses

PubMed Central

Nemr, Katia; Cota, Ariane; Tsuji, Domingos; Simões-Zenari, Marcia

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To characterize the voice quality of individuals with dysphonia and to investigate possible correlations between the degree of voice deviation (D) and scores on the Dysphonia Risk Screening Protocol-General (DRSP), the Voice-Related Quality of Life (V-RQOL) measure and the Voice Handicap Index, short version (VHI-10). METHODS: The sample included 200 individuals with dysphonia. Following laryngoscopy, the participants completed the DRSP, the V-RQOL measure, and the VHI-10; subsequently, voice samples were recorded for auditory-perceptual and acoustic analyses. The correlation between the score for each questionnaire and the overall degree of vocal deviation was analyzed, as was the correlation among the scores for the three questionnaires. RESULTS: Most of the participants (62%) were female, and the mean age of the sample was 49 years. The most common laryngeal diagnosis was organic dysphonia (79.5%). The mean D was 59.54, and the predominance of roughness had a mean of 54.74. All the participants exhibited at least one abnormal acoustic aspect. The mean questionnaire scores were DRSP, 44.7; V-RQOL, 57.1; and VHI-10, 16. An inverse correlation was found between the V-RQOL score and D; however, a positive correlation was found between both the VHI-10 and DRSP scores and D. CONCLUSION: A predominance of adult women, organic dysphonia, moderate voice deviation, high dysphonia risk, and low to moderate quality of life impact characterized our sample. There were correlations between the scores of each of the three questionnaires and the degree of voice deviation. It should be noted that the DRSP monitored the degree of dysphonia severity, which reinforces its applicability for patients with different laryngeal diagnoses. PMID:29538494

Scoring Tools for the Analysis of Infant Respiratory Inductive Plethysmography Signals.

PubMed

Robles-Rubio, Carlos Alejandro; Bertolizio, Gianluca; Brown, Karen A; Kearney, Robert E

2015-01-01

Infants recovering from anesthesia are at risk of life threatening Postoperative Apnea (POA). POA events are rare, and so the study of POA requires the analysis of long cardiorespiratory records. Manual scoring is the preferred method of analysis for these data, but it is limited by low intra- and inter-scorer repeatability. Furthermore, recommended scoring rules do not provide a comprehensive description of the respiratory patterns. This work describes a set of manual scoring tools that address these limitations. These tools include: (i) a set of definitions and scoring rules for 6 mutually exclusive, unique patterns that fully characterize infant respiratory inductive plethysmography (RIP) signals; (ii) RIPScore, a graphical, manual scoring software to apply these rules to infant data; (iii) a library of data segments representing each of the 6 patterns; (iv) a fully automated, interactive formal training protocol to standardize the analysis and establish intra- and inter-scorer repeatability; and (v) a quality control method to monitor scorer ongoing performance over time. To evaluate these tools, three scorers from varied backgrounds were recruited and trained to reach a performance level similar to that of an expert. These scorers used RIPScore to analyze data from infants at risk of POA in two separate, independent instances. Scorers performed with high accuracy and consistency, analyzed data efficiently, had very good intra- and inter-scorer repeatability, and exhibited only minor confusion between patterns. These results indicate that our tools represent an excellent method for the analysis of respiratory patterns in long data records. Although the tools were developed for the study of POA, their use extends to any study of respiratory patterns using RIP (e.g., sleep apnea, extubation readiness). Moreover, by establishing and monitoring scorer repeatability, our tools enable the analysis of large data sets by multiple scorers, which is essential for longitudinal and multicenter studies.

Quantitative prediction of drug side effects based on drug-related features.

PubMed

Niu, Yanqing; Zhang, Wen

2017-09-01

Unexpected side effects of drugs are great concern in the drug development, and the identification of side effects is an important task. Recently, machine learning methods are proposed to predict the presence or absence of interested side effects for drugs, but it is difficult to make the accurate prediction for all of them. In this paper, we transform side effect profiles of drugs as their quantitative scores, by summing up their side effects with weights. The quantitative scores may measure the dangers of drugs, and thus help to compare the risk of different drugs. Here, we attempt to predict quantitative scores of drugs, namely the quantitative prediction. Specifically, we explore a variety of drug-related features and evaluate their discriminative powers for the quantitative prediction. Then, we consider several feature combination strategies (direct combination, average scoring ensemble combination) to integrate three informative features: chemical substructures, targets, and treatment indications. Finally, the average scoring ensemble model which produces the better performances is used as the final quantitative prediction model. Since weights for side effects are empirical values, we randomly generate different weights in the simulation experiments. The experimental results show that the quantitative method is robust to different weights, and produces satisfying results. Although other state-of-the-art methods cannot make the quantitative prediction directly, the prediction results can be transformed as the quantitative scores. By indirect comparison, the proposed method produces much better results than benchmark methods in the quantitative prediction. In conclusion, the proposed method is promising for the quantitative prediction of side effects, which may work cooperatively with existing state-of-the-art methods to reveal dangers of drugs.

The use of propensity score methods with survival or time-to-event outcomes: reporting measures of effect similar to those used in randomized experiments.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2014-03-30

Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to estimate causal treatment effects in observational studies. In medical and epidemiological studies, outcomes are frequently time-to-event in nature. Propensity-score methods are often applied incorrectly when estimating the effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. This article describes how two different propensity score methods (matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting) can be used to estimate the measures of effect that are frequently reported in randomized controlled trials: (i) marginal survival curves, which describe survival in the population if all subjects were treated or if all subjects were untreated; and (ii) marginal hazard ratios. The use of these propensity score methods allows one to replicate the measures of effect that are commonly reported in randomized controlled trials with time-to-event outcomes: both absolute and relative reductions in the probability of an event occurring can be determined. We also provide guidance on variable selection for the propensity score model, highlight methods for assessing the balance of baseline covariates between treated and untreated subjects, and describe the implementation of a sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of unmeasured confounding variables on the estimated treatment effect when outcomes are time-to-event in nature. The methods in the paper are illustrated by estimating the effect of discharge statin prescribing on the risk of death in a sample of patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. In this tutorial article, we describe and illustrate all the steps necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. © 2013 The authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Gender, TIMI risk score and in-hospital mortality in STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI: results from the Belgian STEMI registry.

PubMed

Gevaert, Sofie A; De Bacquer, Dirk; Evrard, Patrick; Convens, Carl; Dubois, Philippe; Boland, Jean; Renard, Marc; Beauloye, Christophe; Coussement, Patrick; De Raedt, Herbert; de Meester, Antoine; Vandecasteele, Els; Vranckx, Pascal; Sinnaeve, Peter R; Claeys, Marc J

2014-01-22

The relationship between the predictive performance of the TIMI risk score for STEMI and gender has not been evaluated in the setting of primary PCI (pPCI). Here, we compared in-hospital mortality and predictive performance of the TIMI risk score between Belgian women and men undergoing pPCI. In-hospital mortality was analysed in 8,073 (1,920 [23.8%] female and 6,153 [76.2%] male patients) consecutive pPCI-treated STEMI patients, included in the prospective, observational Belgian STEMI registry (January 2007 to February 2011). A multivariable logistic regression model, including TIMI risk score variables and gender, evaluated differences in in-hospital mortality between men and women. The predictive performance of the TIMI risk score according to gender was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration. Mortality rates for TIMI scores in women and men were compared. Female patients were older, had more comorbidities and longer ischaemic times. Crude in-hospital mortality was 10.1% in women vs. 4.9% in men (OR 2.2; 95% CI: 1.82-2.66, p<0.001). When adjusting for TIMI risk score variables, mortality remained higher in women (OR 1.47, 95% CI: 1.15-1.87, p=0.002). The TIMI risk score provided a good predictive discrimination and calibration in women as well as in men (c-statistic=0.84 [95% CI: 0.809-0.866], goodness-of-fit p=0.53 and c-statistic=0.89 [95% CI: 0.873-0.907], goodness-of-fit p=0.13, respectively), but mortality prediction for TIMI scores was better in men (p=0.02 for TIMI score x gender interaction). In the Belgian STEMI registry, pPCI-treated women had a higher in-hospital mortality rate even after correcting for TIMI risk score variables. The TIMI risk score was effective in predicting in-hospital mortality but performed slightly better in men. The database was registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00727623).

External Validation of Risk Scores for Major Bleeding in a Population-Based Cohort of Transient Ischemic Attack and Ischemic Stroke Patients.

PubMed

Hilkens, Nina A; Li, Linxin; Rothwell, Peter M; Algra, Ale; Greving, Jacoba P

2018-03-01

The S 2 TOP-BLEED score may help to identify patients at high risk of bleeding on antiplatelet drugs after a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke. The score was derived on trial populations, and its performance in a real-world setting is unknown. We aimed to externally validate the S 2 TOP-BLEED score for major bleeding in a population-based cohort and to compare its performance with other risk scores for bleeding. We studied risk of bleeding in 2072 patients with a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke on antiplatelet agents in the population-based OXVASC (Oxford Vascular Study) according to 3 scores: S 2 TOP-BLEED, REACH, and Intracranial-B 2 LEED 3 S. Performance was assessed with C statistics and calibration plots. During 8302 patient-years of follow-up, 117 patients had a major bleed. The S 2 TOP-BLEED score showed a C statistic of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.73) and accurate calibration for 3-year risk of major bleeding. The S 2 TOP-BLEED score was much more predictive of fatal bleeding than nonmajor bleeding (C statistics 0.77; 95% CI, 0.69-0.85 and 0.50; 95% CI, 0.44-0.58). The REACH score had a C statistic of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.58-0.69) for major bleeding and the Intracranial-B 2 LEED 3 S score a C statistic of 0.60 (95% CI, 0.51-0.70) for intracranial bleeding. The ratio of ischemic events versus bleeds decreased across risk groups of bleeding from 6.6:1 in the low-risk group to 1.8:1 in the high-risk group. The S 2 TOP-BLEED score shows modest performance in a population-based cohort of patients with a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke. Although bleeding risks were associated with risks of ischemic events, risk stratification may still be useful to identify a subgroup of patients at particularly high risk of bleeding, in whom preventive measures are indicated. © 2018 The Authors.

Using a genetic/clinical risk score to stop smoking (GeTSS): randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Nichols, John A A; Grob, Paul; Kite, Wendy; Williams, Peter; de Lusignan, Simon

2017-10-23

As genetic tests become cheaper, the possibility of their widespread availability must be considered. This study involves a risk score for lung cancer in smokers that is roughly 50% genetic (50% clinical criteria). The risk score has been shown to be effective as a smoking cessation motivator in hospital recruited subjects (not actively seeking cessation services). This was an RCT set in a United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS) smoking cessation clinic. Smokers were identified from medical records. Subjects that wanted to participate were randomised to a test group that was administered a gene-based risk test and given a lung cancer risk score, or a control group where no risk score was performed. Each group had 8 weeks of weekly smoking cessation sessions involving group therapy and advice on smoking cessation pharmacotherapy and follow-up at 6 months. The primary endpoint was smoking cessation at 6 months. Secondary outcomes included ranking of the risk score and other motivators. 67 subjects attended the smoking cessation clinic. The 6 months quit rates were 29.4%, (10/34; 95% CI 14.1-44.7%) for the test group and 42.9% (12/28; 95% CI 24.6-61.2%) for the controls. The difference is not significant. However, the quit rate for test group subjects with a "very high" risk score was 89% (8/9; 95% CI 68.4-100%) which was significant when compared with the control group (p = 0.023) and test group subjects with moderate risk scores had a 9.5% quit rate (2/21; 95% CI 2.7-28.9%) which was significantly lower than for above moderate risk score 61.5% (8/13; 95% CI 35.5-82.3; p = 0.03). Only the sub-group with the highest risk score showed an increased quit rate. Controls and test group subjects with a moderate risk score were relatively unlikely to have achieved and maintained non-smoker status at 6 months. ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT01176383 (date of registration: 3 August 2010).

Impact of Replacing the Pooled Cohort Equation With Other Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores on Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA]).

PubMed

Qureshi, Waqas T; Michos, Erin D; Flueckiger, Peter; Blaha, Michael; Sandfort, Veit; Herrington, David M; Burke, Gregory; Yeboah, Joseph

2016-09-01

The increase in statin eligibility by the new cholesterol guidelines is mostly driven by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) criterion (≥7.5% 10-year PCE). The impact of replacing the PCE with either the modified Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) on assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk assessment and statin eligibility remains unknown. We assessed the comparative benefits of using the PCE, FRS, and SCORE for ASCVD risk assessment in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Of 6,815 participants, 654 (mean age 61.4 ± 10.3; 47.1% men; 37.1% whites; 27.2% blacks; 22.3% Hispanics; 12.0% Chinese-Americans) were included in analysis. Area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis were used to compare the 3 risk scores. Decision curve analysis is the plot of net benefit versus probability thresholds; net benefit = true positive rate - (false positive rate × weighting factor). Weighting factor = Threshold probability/1 - threshold probability. After a median of 8.6 years, 342 (6.0%) ASCVD events (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, fatal or nonfatal stroke) occurred. All 4 risk scores had acceptable discriminative ability for incident ASCVD events; (AUC [95% CI] PCE: 0.737 [0.713 to 0.762]; FRS: 0.717 [0.691 to 0.743], SCORE (high risk) 0.722 [0.696 to 0.747], and SCORE (low risk): 0.721 [0.696 to 0.746]. At the ASCVD risk threshold recommended for statin eligibility for primary prevention (≥7.5%), the PCE provides the best net benefit. Replacing the PCE with the SCORE (high), SCORE (low) and FRS results in a 2.9%, 8.9%, and 17.1% further increase in statin eligibility. The PCE has the best discrimination and net benefit for primary ASCVD risk assessment in a US-based multiethnic cohort compared with the SCORE or the FRS. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

White Matter Hyperintensities Improve Ischemic Stroke Recurrence Prediction.

PubMed

Andersen, Søren Due; Larsen, Torben Bjerregaard; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Yavarian, Yousef; Lip, Gregory Y H; Bach, Flemming W

2017-01-01

Nearly one in 5 patients with ischemic stroke will invariably experience a second stroke within 5 years. Stroke risk stratification schemes based solely on clinical variables perform only modestly in non-atrial fibrillation (AF) patients and improvement of these schemes will enhance their clinical utility. Cerebral white matter hyperintensities are associated with an increased risk of incident ischemic stroke in the general population, whereas their association with the risk of ischemic stroke recurrence is more ambiguous. In a non-AF stroke cohort, we investigated the association between cerebral white matter hyperintensities and the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke, and we evaluated the predictive performance of the CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score (clinical scores) when augmented with information on white matter hyperintensities. In a registry-based, observational cohort study, we included 832 patients (mean age 59.6 (SD 13.9); 42.0% females) with incident ischemic stroke and no AF. We assessed the severity of white matter hyperintensities using MRI. Hazard ratios stratified by the white matter hyperintensities score and adjusted for the components of the CHA2DS2VASc score were calculated based on the Cox proportional hazards analysis. Recalibrated clinical scores were calculated by adding one point to the score for the presence of moderate to severe white matter hyperintensities. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with the C-statistic. White matter hyperintensities were significantly associated with the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke after adjusting for clinical risk factors. The hazard ratios ranged from 1.65 (95% CI 0.70-3.86) for mild changes to 5.28 (95% CI 1.98-14.07) for the most severe changes. C-statistics for the prediction of recurrent ischemic stroke were 0.59 (95% CI 0.51-0.65) for the CHA2DS2VASc score and 0.60 (95% CI 0.53-0.68) for the Essen Stroke Risk Score. The recalibrated clinical scores showed improved C-statistics: the recalibrated CHA2DS2VASc score 0.62 (95% CI 0.54-0.70; p = 0.024) and the recalibrated Essen Stroke Risk Score 0.63 (95% CI 0.56-0.71; p = 0.031). C-statistics of the white matter hyperintensities score were 0.62 (95% CI 0.52-0.68) to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.73). An increasing burden of white matter hyperintensities was independently associated with recurrent ischemic stroke in a cohort of non-AF ischemic stroke patients. Recalibration of the CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score with one point for the presence of moderate to severe white matter hyperintensities led to improved discriminatory performance in ischemic stroke recurrence prediction. Risk scores based on white matter hyperintensities alone were at least as accurate as the established clinical risk scores in the prediction of ischemic stroke recurrence. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Periodontal Disease Is an Independent Predictor of Intracardiac Calcification

PubMed Central

Pressman, Gregg S.; Qasim, Atif; Verma, Nitin; Arishiro, Kumiko; Notohara, Yasuhiro; Crudu, Vitalie; Figueredo, Vincent M.

2013-01-01

Background. Periodontitis is the most common chronic inflammatory condition worldwide and is associated with incident coronary disease. Hypothesis. We hypothesized that periodontal disease would also be associated with cardiac calcification, a condition which shares many risk factors with atherosclerosis and is considered a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis. Methods. Cross-sectional study at two sites (USA and Japan) involving subjects with both clinical echocardiograms and detailed dental examinations. Semiquantitative scoring systems were used to assess severity of periodontal disease and echocardiographic calcification. Results. Fifty-six of 73 subjects (77%) had cardiac calcifications, and 51% had moderate to severe periodontal disease (score > 2). In unadjusted analysis, a significant relationship between periodontal score and cardiac calcification (Spearman rho = 0.4, P = 0.001) was noted, with increases in mean calcification score seen across increasing levels of periodontal disease. On multivariate logistic regression, adjusted for age, gender, race, glomerular filtration rate, and traditional risk factors, this association remained significant (P = 0.024). There was no significant interaction by study site, race, or gender. Conclusions. In a multiracial population, we found a significant association between the degree of periodontal disease, a chronic inflammatory condition, and cardiac calcification. Further, higher periodontal scores were associated with greater degrees of calcification. PMID:24106721

Comparison of the MASCC and CISNE scores for identifying low-risk neutropenic fever patients: analysis of data from three emergency departments of cancer centers in three continents.

PubMed

Ahn, Shin; Rice, Terry W; Yeung, Sai-Ching J; Cooksley, Tim

2018-05-01

Patients with febrile neutropenia are a heterogeneous group with a minority developing serious medical complications. Outpatient management of low-risk febrile neutropenia has been shown to be safe and cost-effective. Scoring systems, such as the Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) score and Clinical Index of Stable Febrile Neutropenia (CISNE), have been developed and validated to identify low-risk patients. We aimed to compare the performance of these two scores in identifying low-risk febrile neutropenic patients. We performed a pooled analysis of patients presenting with febrile neutropenia to three tertiary cancer emergency centers in the USA, UK, and South Korea in 2015. The primary outcome measures were the occurrence of serious complications. Admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and 30-day mortality were secondary outcomes. The predictive performance of each score was analyzed. Five hundred seventy-one patients presented with febrile neutropenia. With MASCC risk index, 508 (89.1%) were classified as low-risk febrile neutropenia, compared to 60 (10.5%) with CISNE classification. Overall, the MASCC score had a greater discriminatory power in the detection of low-risk patients than the CISNE score (AUC 0.772, 95% CI 0.726-0.819 vs. 0.681, 95% CI 0.626-0.737, p = 0.0024). Both MASCC and CISNE scores have reasonable discriminatory value in predicting patients with low-risk febrile neutropenia. Risk scores should be used in conjunction with clinical judgment for the identification of patients suitable for outpatient management of neutropenic fever. Developing more accurate scores, validated in prospective settings, will be useful in facilitating more patients being managed in an outpatient setting.

Short communication: Genetic association between schizophrenia and cannabis use.

PubMed

Verweij, Karin J H; Abdellaoui, Abdel; Nivard, Michel G; Sainz Cort, Alberto; Ligthart, Lannie; Draisma, Harmen H M; Minică, Camelia C; Gillespie, Nathan A; Willemsen, Gonneke; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Boomsma, Dorret I; Vink, Jacqueline M

2017-02-01

Previous studies have shown a relationship between schizophrenia and cannabis use. As both traits are substantially heritable, a shared genetic liability could explain the association. We use two recently developed genomics methods to investigate the genetic overlap between schizophrenia and cannabis use. Firstly, polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia were created based on summary statistics from the largest schizophrenia genome-wide association (GWA) meta-analysis to date. We analysed the association between these schizophrenia polygenic scores and multiple cannabis use phenotypes (lifetime use, regular use, age at initiation, and quantity and frequency of use) in a sample of 6,931 individuals. Secondly, we applied LD-score regression to the GWA summary statistics of schizophrenia and lifetime cannabis use to calculate the genome-wide genetic correlation. Polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia were significantly (α<0.05) associated with five of the eight cannabis use phenotypes, including lifetime use, regular use, and quantity of use, with risk scores explaining up to 0.5% of the variance. Associations were not significant for age at initiation of use and two measures of frequency of use analyzed in lifetime users only, potentially because of reduced power due to a smaller sample size. The LD-score regression revealed a significant genetic correlation of r g =0.22 (SE=0.07, p=0.003) between schizophrenia and lifetime cannabis use. Common genetic variants underlying schizophrenia and lifetime cannabis use are partly overlapping. Individuals with a stronger genetic predisposition to schizophrenia are more likely to initiate cannabis use, use cannabis more regularly, and consume more cannabis over their lifetime. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An 8-gene qRT-PCR-based gene expression score that has prognostic value in early breast cancer

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Gene expression profiling may improve prognostic accuracy in patients with early breast cancer. Our objective was to demonstrate that it is possible to develop a simple molecular signature to predict distant relapse. Methods We included 153 patients with stage I-II hormonal receptor-positive breast cancer. RNA was isolated from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples and qRT-PCR amplification of 83 genes was performed with gene expression assays. The genes we analyzed were those included in the 70-Gene Signature, the Recurrence Score and the Two-Gene Index. The association among gene expression, clinical variables and distant metastasis-free survival was analyzed using Cox regression models. Results An 8-gene prognostic score was defined. Distant metastasis-free survival at 5 years was 97% for patients defined as low-risk by the prognostic score versus 60% for patients defined as high-risk. The 8-gene score remained a significant factor in multivariate analysis and its performance was similar to that of two validated gene profiles: the 70-Gene Signature and the Recurrence Score. The validity of the signature was verified in independent cohorts obtained from the GEO database. Conclusions This study identifies a simple gene expression score that complements histopathological prognostic factors in breast cancer, and can be determined in paraffin-embedded samples. PMID:20584321

Two approaches to incorporate clinical data uncertainty into multiple criteria decision analysis for benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products.

PubMed

Wen, Shihua; Zhang, Lanju; Yang, Bo

2014-07-01

The Problem formulation, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, Trade-offs, Uncertainties, Risk attitude, and Linked decisions (PrOACT-URL) framework and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have been recommended by the European Medicines Agency for structured benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products undergoing regulatory review. The objective of this article was to provide solutions to incorporate the uncertainty from clinical data into the MCDA model when evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. Two statistical approaches, the δ-method approach and the Monte-Carlo approach, were proposed to construct the confidence interval of the overall benefit-risk score from the MCDA model as well as other probabilistic measures for comparing the benefit-risk profiles between treatment options. Both approaches can incorporate the correlation structure between clinical parameters (criteria) in the MCDA model and are straightforward to implement. The two proposed approaches were applied to a case study to evaluate the benefit-risk profile of an add-on therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (drug X) relative to placebo. It demonstrated a straightforward way to quantify the impact of the uncertainty from clinical data to the benefit-risk assessment and enabled statistical inference on evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. The δ-method approach provides a closed form to quantify the variability of the overall benefit-risk score in the MCDA model, whereas the Monte-Carlo approach is more computationally intensive but can yield its true sampling distribution for statistical inference. The obtained confidence intervals and other probabilistic measures from the two approaches enhance the benefit-risk decision making of medicinal products. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The HEART score is useful to predict cardiovascular risks and reduces unnecessary cardiac imaging in low-risk patients with acute chest pain.

PubMed

Dai, Siping; Huang, Bo; Zou, Yunliang; Guo, Jianbin; Liu, Ziyong; Pi, Dangyu; Qiu, Yunhong; Xiao, Chun

2018-06-01

The present study was to investigate whether the HEART score can be used to evaluate cardiovascular risks and reduce unnecessary cardiac imaging in China.Acute coronary syndrome patients with the thrombosis in myocardial infarction risk score < 2 were enrolled in the emergency department. Baseline data were collected and a HEART score was determined in each participant during the indexed emergency visit. Participants were follow-up for 30 days after discharge and the studied endpoints included acute myocardial infarction, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality.A total of 244 patients were enrolled and 2 was loss of follow-up. The mean age was 50.4 years old and male patients accounted for 64.5%. Substernal pain and featured as pressure of the pain accounted for 34.3% and 39.3%, respectively. After 30 days' follow-up, no patient in the low-risk HEART score group and 2 patients (1.5%) in the high risk HEART score group had cardiovascular events. The sensitivity of HEART score to predict cardiovascular events was 100% and the specificity was 46.7%. The potential unnecessary cardiac testing was 46.3%. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that per one category increase of the HEART score was associated with nearly 1.3-fold risk of cardiovascular events.In the low-risk acute chest pain patients, the HEART score is useful to physicians in evaluating the risk of cardiovascular events within the first 30 days. In addition, the HEART score is also useful in reducing the unnecessary cardiac imaging.

A Risk Prediction Index for Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia at Screening Colonoscopy.

PubMed

Schroy, Paul C; Wong, John B; O'Brien, Michael J; Chen, Clara A; Griffith, John L

2015-07-01

Eliciting patient preferences within the context of shared decision making has been advocated for colorectal cancer screening. Risk stratification for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) might facilitate more effective shared decision making when selecting an appropriate screening option. Our objective was to develop and validate a clinical index for estimating the probability of ACN at screening colonoscopy. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 3,543 asymptomatic, mostly average-risk patients 50-79 years of age undergoing screening colonoscopy at two urban safety net hospitals. Predictors of ACN were identified using multiple logistic regression. Model performance was internally validated using bootstrapping methods. The final index consisted of five independent predictors of risk (age, smoking, alcohol intake, height, and a combined sex/race/ethnicity variable). Smoking was the strongest predictor (net reclassification improvement (NRI), 8.4%) and height the weakest (NRI, 1.5%). Using a simplified weighted scoring system based on 0.5 increments of the adjusted odds ratio, the risk of ACN ranged from 3.2% (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.6-3.9) for the low-risk group (score ≤2) to 8.6% (95% CI, 7.4-9.7) for the intermediate/high-risk group (score 3-11). The model had moderate to good overall discrimination (C-statistic, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.66-0.72) and good calibration (P=0.73-0.93). A simple 5-item risk index based on readily available clinical data accurately stratifies average-risk patients into low- and intermediate/high-risk categories for ACN at screening colonoscopy. Uptake into clinical practice could facilitate more effective shared decision-making for CRC screening, particularly in situations where patient and provider test preferences differ.

Inflammation and hemostasis biomarkers for predicting stroke in postmenopausal women: The Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study

PubMed Central

Kaplan, Robert C; McGinn, Aileen P; Baird, Alison E; Hendrix, Susan L; Kooperberg, Charles; Lynch, John; Rosenbaum, Daniel M; Johnson, Karen C; Strickler, Howard D; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia

2009-01-01

Background Inflammatory and hemostasis-related biomarkers may identify women at risk of stroke. Methods Hormones and Biomarkers Predicting Stroke is a study of ischemic stroke among postmenopausal women participating in the Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study (n = 972 case-control pairs). A Biomarker Risk Score was derived from levels of seven inflammatory and hemostasis-related biomarkers that appeared individually to predict risk of ischemic stroke: C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, tissue plasminogen activator, D-dimer, white blood cell count, neopterin, and homocysteine. The c index was used to evaluate discrimination. Results Of all the individual biomarkers examined, C-reactive protein emerged as the only independent single predictor of ischemic stroke (adjusted odds ratio comparing Q4 versus Q1 = 1.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.15–2.32, p = 0.01) after adjustment for other biomarkers and standard stroke risk factors. The Biomarker Risk Score identified a gradient of increasing stroke risk with a greater number of elevated inflammatory/hemostasis biomarkers, and improved the c index significantly compared with standard stroke risk factors (p = 0.02). Among the subset of individuals who met current criteria for “high risk” levels of C-reactive protein (> 3.0 mg/L), the Biomarker Risk Score defined an approximately two-fold gradient of risk. We found no evidence for a relationship between stroke and levels of E-selectin, fibrinogen, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1, prothrombin fragment 1+2, Factor VIIC, or plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 antigen (p >0.15). Discussion The findings support the further exploration of multiple-biomarker panels to develop approaches for stratifying an individual’s risk of stroke. PMID:18984425

Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: The CHARGE risk score project

PubMed Central

Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla A; Fornage, Myriam; Bis, Joshua C; Choi, Seung Hoan; Psaty, Bruce M; Meigs, James B; Rao, Madhu; Nalls, Mike; Fontes, Joao D; O’Donnell, Christopher J.; Kathiresan, Sekar; Ehret, Georg B.; Fox, Caroline S; Malik, Rainer; Dichgans, Martin; Schmidt, Helena; Lahti, Jari; Heckbert, Susan R; Lumley, Thomas; Rice, Kenneth; Rotter, Jerome I; Taylor, Kent D; Folsom, Aaron R; Boerwinkle, Eric; Rosamond, Wayne D; Shahar, Eyal; Gottesman, Rebecca F.; Koudstaal, Peter J; Amin, Najaf; Wieberdink, Renske G.; Dehghan, Abbas; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; DeStefano, Anita L.; Debette, Stephanie; Xue, Luting; Beiser, Alexa; Wolf, Philip A.; DeCarli, Charles; Ikram, M. Arfan; Seshadri, Sudha; Mosley, Thomas H; Longstreth, WT; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Launer, Lenore J

2014-01-01

Background and Purpose Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score (FSRS), prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with stroke and its risk factors. Methods The study includes four population-based cohorts with 2,047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged 55 years and older, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRS were constructed with 324 SNPs implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with Area under the curve (AUC) statistics comparing the GRS to age sex, and FSRS models, and with reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke (IS). Results In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the FSRS, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (All stroke: Δjoint AUC =0.016, p-value=2.3*10-6; IS: Δ joint AUC =0.021, p-value=3.7*10−7), although the overall AUC remained low. In all studies there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (p-values <10−4). Conclusions The SNPs associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared to the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke. PMID:24436238

External validation of the modified Glasgow prognostic score for renal cancer

PubMed Central

Tai, Caroline G.; Johnson, Timothy V.; Abbasi, Ammara; Herrell, Lindsey; Harris, Wayne B.; Kucuk, Omer; Canter, Daniel J.; Ogan, Kenneth; Pattaras, John G.; Nieh, Peter T.; Master, Viraj A.

2014-01-01

Purpose: The modified Glasgow prognostic Score (mGPS) incorporates C-reactive protein and albumin as a clinically useful marker of tumor behavior. The ability of the mGPS to predict metastasis in localized renal cell carcinoma (RCC) remains unknown in an external validation cohort. Patients and Methods: Patients with clinically localized clear cell RCC were followed for 1 year post-operatively. Metastases were identified radiologically. Patients were categorized by mGPS score as low-risk (mGPS = 0 points), intermediate-risk (mGPS = 1 point) and high-risk (mGPS = 2 points). Univariate, Kaplan-Meier and multivariate Cox regression analyses examined Recurrence -free survival (RFS) across patient and disease characteristics. Results: Of the 129 patients in this study, 23.3% developed metastases. Of low, intermediate and high risk patients, 10.1%, 38.9% and 89.9% recurred during the study. After accounting for various patient and tumor characteristics in multivariate analysis including stage and grade, only mGPS was significantly associated with RFS. Compared with low-risk patients, intermediate- and high-risk patients experienced a 4-fold (hazard ratios [HR]: 4.035, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.312-12.415, P = 0.015) and 7-fold (HR: 7.012, 95% CI: 2.126-23.123 P < 0.001) risk of metastasis, respectively. Conclusions: mGPS is a robust predictor of metastasis following potentially curative nephrectomy for localized RCC. Clinicians may consider mGPS as an adjunct to identify high-risk patients for possible enrollment into clinical trials or for patient counseling PMID:24497679

Association of high-risk sexual behaviour with diversity of the vaginal microbiota and abundance of Lactobacillus

PubMed Central

Wessels, Jocelyn M.; Lajoie, Julie; Vitali, Danielle; Omollo, Kenneth; Kimani, Joshua; Oyugi, Julius; Cheruiyot, Juliana; Kimani, Makubo; Mungai, John N.; Akolo, Maureen; Stearns, Jennifer C.; Surette, Michael G.; Fowke, Keith R.

2017-01-01

Objective To compare the vaginal microbiota of women engaged in high-risk sexual behaviour (sex work) with women who are not engaged in high-risk sexual behaviour. Diverse vaginal microbiota, low in Lactobacillus species, like those in bacterial vaginosis (BV), are associated with increased prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition. Although high-risk sexual behaviour increases risk for STIs, the vaginal microbiota of sex workers is understudied. Methods A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted comparing vaginal microbiota of women who are not engaged in sex work (non-sex worker controls, NSW, N = 19) and women engaged in sex work (female sex workers, FSW, N = 48), using Illumina sequencing (16S rRNA, V3 region). Results Bacterial richness and diversity were significantly less in controls, than FSW. Controls were more likely to have Lactobacillus as the most abundant genus (58% vs. 17%; P = 0.002) and composition of their vaginal microbiota differed from FSW (PERMANOVA, P = 0.001). Six microbiota clusters were detected, including a high diversity cluster with three sub-clusters, and 55% of women with low Nugent Scores fell within this cluster. High diversity was observed by 16S sequencing in FSW, regardless of Nugent Scores, suggesting that Nugent Score may not be capable of capturing the diversity present in the FSW vaginal microbiota. Conclusions High-risk sexual behaviour is associated with diversity of the vaginal microbiota and lack of Lactobacillus. These factors could contribute to increased risk of STIs and HIV in women engaged in high-risk sexual behaviour. PMID:29095928

Formal thought disorder in people at ultra-high risk of psychosis

PubMed Central

Weinstein, Sara; Stahl, Daniel; Day, Fern; Valmaggia, Lucia; Rutigliano, Grazia; De Micheli, Andrea; Fusar-Poli, Paolo; McGuire, Philip

2017-01-01

Background Formal thought disorder is a cardinal feature of psychosis. However, the extent to which formal thought disorder is evident in ultra-high-risk individuals and whether it is linked to the progression to psychosis remains unclear. Aims Examine the severity of formal thought disorder in ultra-high-risk participants and its association with future psychosis. Method The Thought and Language Index (TLI) was used to assess 24 ultra-high-risk participants, 16 people with first-episode psychosis and 13 healthy controls. Ultra-high-risk individuals were followed up for a mean duration of 7 years (s.d.=1.5) to determine the relationship between formal thought disorder at baseline and transition to psychosis. Results TLI scores were significantly greater in the ultra-high-risk group compared with the healthy control group (effect size (ES)=1.2), but lower than in people with first-episode psychosis (ES=0.8). Total and negative TLI scores were higher in ultra-high-risk individuals who developed psychosis, but this was not significant. Combining negative TLI scores with attenuated psychotic symptoms and basic symptoms predicted transition to psychosis (P=0.04; ES=1.04). Conclusions TLI is beneficial in evaluating formal thought disorder in ultra-high-risk participants, and complements existing instruments for the evaluation of psychopathology in this group. Declaration of interests None. Copyright and usage © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2017. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Non-Commercial, No Derivatives (CC BY-NC-ND) license. PMID:28713586

[Study on the infectious risk model of AIDS among men who have sex with men in Guangzhou].

PubMed

Hu, Pei; Zhong, Fei; Cheng, Wei-Bin; Xu, Hui-Fang; Ling, Li

2012-07-01

To develop a human immune deficiency virus (HIV) infection risk appraisal model suitable for men who has sex with men (MSM) in Guangzhou, and to provide tools for follow-up the outcomes on health education and behavior intervention. A cros-sectional study was conducted in Guangzhou from 2008 to 2010. Based on the HIV surveillance data, the main risk factors of HIV infection among MSM were screened by means of logistic regression. Degree on relative risk was transformed into risk scores by adopting the statistics models. Individual risk scores, group risk scores and individual infection risk in comparison with usual MSM groups could then be calculated according to the rate of exposure on those risk factors appeared in data from the surveillance programs. Risk factors related to HIV infection among MSM and the quantitative assessment standard (risk scores and risk scores table of population groups) for those factors were set up by multiple logistic regression, including age, location of registered residence, monthly income, major location for finding their sexual partners, HIV testing in the past year, age when having the first sexual intercourse, rate of condom use in the past six months, symptoms related to sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and syphilis in particular. The average risk score of population was 6.06, with risk scores for HIV positive and negative as 3.10 and 18.08 respectively (P < 0.001). The rates of HIV infection for different score groups were 0.9%, 2.0%, 7.0%, 14.4% and 33.3%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity on the prediction of scores were 54.4% and 75.4% respectively, with the accuracy rate as 74.2%. HIV infection risk model could be used to quantify and classify the individual's infectious status and related factors among MSM more directly and effectively, so as to help the individuals to identify their high-risk behaviors as well as lifestyles. We felt that it could also serve as an important tool used for personalized HIV health education and behavior intervention programs.

A Comparative study of Personality as a common pathway in HIV Sero-positive and Alcohol dependent cases on Five Factor Model

PubMed Central

Srivastava, Kalpana; Singh, Amool R.; Chaudhury, Suprakash

2016-01-01

Aim: The aim of this study was to identify the personality traits of alcohol and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients and to compare them with normal controls. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study included 100 consecutive patients with alcohol dependence and HIV each and a control group of 100 normal cases without any physical or psychiatric illness. A score of 2 or less on the General Health Questionnaire was taken as cutoff, and the participants were included in the study with written informed consent. All participants were assessed with the NEO personality inventory revised and sensation-seeking scale (SSS). Results: There were significant differences among the study group on all the five factors, i.e., neuroticism (N), extraversion (E), conscientiousness (C), openness to experience (O), and agreeableness (A). On factor “N,” HIV and alcohol group scored significantly more as compared to normal group. Odds ratio revealed high neuroticism to be a risk factor in alcohol-dependent and HIV cases (P < 0.05). The normal group scored significantly higher on factor “E” as compared to HIV and alcohol cases. High scores on factor “E” and “C” have a protective. Odds ratio found low score of factor “C” as a risk factor; however, “O” did not emerge as a risk factor. The logistic regression revealed that high scores on “N” and “E” and low “A” score had a significant association with alcohol dependence (P < 0.05). Among HIV cases, high score on “N” and “E” and low “C” score emerged significant. Alcohol cases scored significantly more on boredom susceptibility (BS) on SSS as compared to HIV and normal controls. On disinhibition (DIS), HIV cases and alcohol cases scored significantly higher as compared to normal group (P < 0.05). Conclusion: High “N” scores on NEO personality inventory are significantly associated with alcohol dependence and HIV while high scores on “E” and “C” have a protective effect. On SSS, HIV-positive cases are characterized by high DIS scores while alcohol dependence is associated with high scores on BS and DIS. PMID:28163408

Development and validation of a clinical risk score for predicting drug-resistant bacterial pneumonia in older Chinese patients.

PubMed

Ma, Hon Ming; Ip, Margaret; Woo, Jean; Hui, David S C

2014-05-01

Health care-associated pneumonia (HCAP) and drug-resistant bacterial pneumonia may not share identical risk factors. We have shown that bronchiectasis, recent hospitalization and severe pneumonia (confusion, blood urea level, respiratory rate, low blood pressure and 65 year old (CURB-65) score ≥ 3) were independent predictors of pneumonia caused by potentially drug-resistant (PDR) pathogens. This study aimed to develop and validate a clinical risk score for predicting drug-resistant bacterial pneumonia in older patients. We derived a risk score by assigning a weighting to each of these risk factors as follows: 14, bronchiectasis; 5, recent hospitalization; 2, severe pneumonia. A 0.5 point was defined for the presence of other risk factors for HCAP. We compared the areas under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of our risk score and the HCAP definition in predicting PDR pathogens in two cohorts of older patients hospitalized with non-nosocomial pneumonia. The derivation and validation cohorts consisted of 354 and 96 patients with bacterial pneumonia, respectively. PDR pathogens were isolated in 48 and 21 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The AUROCs of our risk score and the HCAP definition were 0.751 and 0.650, respectively, in the derivation cohort, and were 0.782 and 0.671, respectively, in the validation cohort. The differences between our risk score and the HCAP definition reached statistical significance. A score ≥ 2.5 had the best balance between sensitivity and specificity. Our risk score outperformed the HCAP definition to predict pneumonia caused by PDR pathogens. A history of bronchiectasis or recent hospitalization is the major indication of starting empirical broad-spectrum antibiotics. © 2014 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Antipsychotics and mortality: adjusting for mortality risk scores to address confounding by terminal illness.

PubMed

Park, Yoonyoung; Franklin, Jessica M; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Levin, Raisa; Crystal, Stephen; Gerhard, Tobias; Huybrechts, Krista F

2015-03-01

To determine whether adjustment for prognostic indices specifically developed for nursing home (NH) populations affect the magnitude of previously observed associations between mortality and conventional and atypical antipsychotics. Cohort study. A merged data set of Medicaid, Medicare, Minimum Data Set (MDS), Online Survey Certification and Reporting system, and National Death Index for 2001 to 2005. Dual-eligible individuals aged 65 and older who initiated antipsychotic treatment in a NH (N=75,445). Three mortality risk scores (Mortality Risk Index Score, Revised MDS Mortality Risk Index, Advanced Dementia Prognostic Tool) were derived for each participant using baseline MDS data, and their performance was assessed using c-statistics and goodness-of-fit tests. The effect of adjusting for these indices in addition to propensity scores (PSs) on the association between antipsychotic medication and mortality was evaluated using Cox models with and without adjustment for risk scores. Each risk score showed moderate discrimination for 6-month mortality, with c-statistics ranging from 0.61 to 0.63. There was no evidence of lack of fit. Imbalances in risk scores between conventional and atypical antipsychotic users, suggesting potential confounding, were much lower within PS deciles than the imbalances in the full cohort. Accounting for each score in the Cox model did not change the relative risk estimates: 2.24 with PS-only adjustment versus 2.20, 2.20, and 2.22 after further adjustment for the three risk scores. Although causality cannot be proven based on nonrandomized studies, this study adds to the body of evidence rejecting explanations other than causality for the greater mortality risk associated with conventional antipsychotics than with atypical antipsychotics. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

Interventions following a high violence risk assessment score: a naturalistic study on a Finnish psychiatric admission ward.

PubMed

Kaunomäki, Jenni; Jokela, Markus; Kontio, Raija; Laiho, Tero; Sailas, Eila; Lindberg, Nina

2017-01-11

Patient aggression and violence against staff members and other patients are common concerns in psychiatric units. Many structured clinical risk assessment tools have recently been developed. Despite their superiority to unaided clinical judgments, staff has shown ambivalent views towards them. A constant worry of staff is that the results of risk assessments would not be used. The aims of the present study were to investigate what were the interventions applied by the staff of a psychiatric admission ward after a high risk patient had been identified, how frequently these interventions were used and how effective they were. The data were collected in a naturalistic setting during a 6-month period in a Finnish psychiatric admission ward with a total of 331 patients with a mean age of 42.9 years (SD 17.39) suffering mostly from mood, schizophrenia-related and substance use disorders. The total number of treatment days was 2399. The staff assessed the patients daily with the Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression (DASA), which is a structured violence risk assessment considering the upcoming 24 h. The interventions in order to reduce the risk of violence following a high DASA total score (≥4) were collected from the patients' medical files. Inductive content analysis was used. There were a total of 64 patients with 217 observations of high DASA total score. In 91.2% of cases, at least one intervention aiming to reduce the violence risk was used. Pro re nata (PRN)-medication, seclusion and focused discussions with a nurse were the most frequently used interventions. Non-coercive and non-pharmacological interventions like daily activities associated significantly with the decrease of perceived risk of violence. In most cases, a high score in violence risk assessment led to interventions aiming to reduce the risk. Unfortunately, the most frequently used methods were psychopharmacological or coercive. It is hoped that the findings will encourage the staff to use their imagination when choosing violence risk reducing intervention techniques.

The associations between a polygenic score, reproductive and menstrual risk factors and breast cancer risk.

PubMed

Warren Andersen, Shaneda; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Gangnon, Ronald E; Hampton, John M; Figueroa, Jonine D; Skinner, Halcyon G; Engelman, Corinne D; Klein, Barbara E; Titus, Linda J; Newcomb, Polly A

2013-07-01

We evaluated whether 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified in genome-wide association studies interact with one another and with reproductive and menstrual risk factors in association with breast cancer risk. DNA samples and information on parity, breastfeeding, age at menarche, age at first birth, and age at menopause were collected through structured interviews from 1,484 breast cancer cases and 1,307 controls who participated in a population-based case-control study conducted in three US states. A polygenic score was created as the sum of risk allele copies multiplied by the corresponding log odds estimate. Logistic regression was used to test the associations between SNPs, the score, reproductive and menstrual factors, and breast cancer risk. Nonlinearity of the score was assessed by the inclusion of a quadratic term for polygenic score. Interactions between the aforementioned variables were tested by including a cross-product term in models. We confirmed associations between rs13387042 (2q35), rs4973768 (SLC4A7), rs10941679 (5p12), rs2981582 (FGFR2), rs3817198 (LSP1), rs3803662 (TOX3), and rs6504950 (STXBP4) with breast cancer. Women in the score's highest quintile had 2.2-fold increased risk when compared to women in the lowest quintile (95 % confidence interval: 1.67-2.88). The quadratic polygenic score term was not significant in the model (p = 0.85), suggesting that the established breast cancer loci are not associated with increased risk more than the sum of risk alleles. Modifications of menstrual and reproductive risk factors associations with breast cancer risk by polygenic score were not observed. Our results suggest that the interactions between breast cancer susceptibility loci and reproductive factors are not strong contributors to breast cancer risk.

Case complexity scores in congenital heart surgery: a comparative study of the Aristotle Basic Complexity score and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) system.

PubMed

Al-Radi, Osman O; Harrell, Frank E; Caldarone, Christopher A; McCrindle, Brian W; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Williams, M Gail; Van Arsdell, Glen S; Williams, William G

2007-04-01

The Aristotle Basic Complexity score and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery system were developed by consensus to compare outcomes of congenital cardiac surgery. We compared the predictive value of the 2 systems. Of all index congenital cardiac operations at our institution from 1982 to 2004 (n = 13,675), we were able to assign an Aristotle Basic Complexity score, a Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery score, and both scores to 13,138 (96%), 11,533 (84%), and 11,438 (84%) operations, respectively. Models of in-hospital mortality and length of stay were generated for Aristotle Basic Complexity and Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery using an identical data set in which both Aristotle Basic Complexity and Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery scores were assigned. The likelihood ratio test for nested models and paired concordance statistics were used. After adjustment for year of operation, the odds ratios for Aristotle Basic Complexity score 3 versus 6, 9 versus 6, 12 versus 6, and 15 versus 6 were 0.29, 2.22, 7.62, and 26.54 (P < .0001). Similarly, odds ratios for Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery categories 1 versus 2, 3 versus 2, 4 versus 2, and 5/6 versus 2 were 0.23, 1.98, 5.80, and 20.71 (P < .0001). Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery added significant predictive value over Aristotle Basic Complexity (likelihood ratio chi2 = 162, P < .0001), whereas Aristotle Basic Complexity contributed much less predictive value over Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (likelihood ratio chi2 = 13.4, P = .009). Neither system fully adjusted for the child's age. The Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery scores were more concordant with length of stay compared with Aristotle Basic Complexity scores (P < .0001). The predictive value of Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery is higher than that of Aristotle Basic Complexity. The use of Aristotle Basic Complexity or Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery as risk stratification and trending tools to monitor outcomes over time and to guide risk-adjusted comparisons may be valuable.