Evaluation of an inpatient fall risk screening tool to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients.

PubMed

Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin

2017-03-01

To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely monitored by nurses to prevent falling during hospitalisations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the performance of clinical risk assessment instruments for screening for osteoporosis or low bone density

PubMed Central

Edwards, D. L.; Saleh, A. A.; Greenspan, S. L.

2015-01-01

Summary We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the performance of clinical risk assessment instruments for screening for DXA-determined osteoporosis or low bone density. Commonly evaluated risk instruments showed high sensitivity approaching or exceeding 90 % at particular thresholds within various populations but low specificity at thresholds required for high sensitivity. Simpler instruments, such as OST, generally performed as well as or better than more complex instruments. Introduction The purpose of the study is to systematically review the performance of clinical risk assessment instruments for screening for dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-determined osteoporosis or low bone density. Methods Systematic review and meta-analysis were performed. Multiple literature sources were searched, and data extracted and analyzed from included references. Results One hundred eight references met inclusion criteria. Studies assessed many instruments in 34 countries, most commonly the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool (OST), the Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Estimation (SCORE) instrument, the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool for Asians (OSTA), the Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument (ORAI), and body weight criteria. Meta-analyses of studies evaluating OST using a cutoff threshold of <1 to identify US postmenopausal women with osteoporosis at the femoral neck provided summary sensitivity and specificity estimates of 89 % (95%CI 82–96 %) and 41 % (95%CI 23–59 %), respectively. Meta-analyses of studies evaluating OST using a cutoff threshold of 3 to identify US men with osteoporosis at the femoral neck, total hip, or lumbar spine provided summary sensitivity and specificity estimates of 88 % (95%CI 79–97 %) and 55 % (95%CI 42–68 %), respectively. Frequently evaluated instruments each had thresholds and populations for which sensitivity for osteoporosis or low bone mass detection approached or exceeded 90 % but always with a trade-off of relatively low specificity. Conclusions Commonly evaluated clinical risk assessment instruments each showed high sensitivity approaching or exceeding 90 % for identifying individuals with DXA-determined osteoporosis or low BMD at certain thresholds in different populations but low specificity at thresholds required for high sensitivity. Simpler instruments, such as OST, generally performed as well as or better than more complex instruments. PMID:25644147

Fracture experience among participants from the FROCAT study: what thresholding is appropriate using the FRAX tool?

PubMed

Azagra, R; Zwart, M; Aguyé, A; Martín-Sánchez, J C; Casado, E; Díaz-Herrera, M A; Moriña, D; Cooper, C; Díez-Pérez, A; Dennison, E M

2016-01-01

To perform an external validation of FRAX algorithm thresholds for reporting level of risk of fracture in Spanish women (low < 5%; intermediate ≥ 5% and < 7.5%; high ≥ 7.5%) taken from a prospective cohort "FRIDEX". A retrospective study of 1090 women aged ≥ 40 and ≤ 90 years old obtained from the general population (FROCAT cohort). FRAX was calculated with data registered in 2002. All fractures were validated in 2012. Sensitivity analysis was performed. When analyzing the cohort (884) excluding current or past anti osteoporotic medication (AOM), using our nominated thresholds, among the 621 (70.2%) women at low risk of fracture, 5.2% [CI95%: 3.4-7.6] sustained a fragility fracture; among the 99 at intermediate risk, 12.1% [6.4-20.2]; and among the 164 defined as high risk, 15.9% [10.6-24.2]. Sensitivity analysis against model risk stratification FRIDEX of FRAX Spain shows no significant difference. By including 206 women with AOM, the sensitivity analysis shows no difference in the group of intermediate and high risk and minimal differences in the low risk group. Our findings support and validate the use of FRIDEX thresholds of FRAX when discussing the risk of fracture and the initiation of therapy with patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of unknown parameters in hazardous materials transportation risk assessment.

PubMed

Pet-Armacost, J J; Sepulveda, J; Sakude, M

1999-12-01

The US Department of Transportation was interested in the risks associated with transporting Hydrazine in tanks with and without relief devices. Hydrazine is both highly toxic and flammable, as well as corrosive. Consequently, there was a conflict as to whether a relief device should be used or not. Data were not available on the impact of relief devices on release probabilities or the impact of Hydrazine on the likelihood of fires and explosions. In this paper, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of the unknown parameters was used to assess the risks associated with highway transport of Hydrazine. To help determine whether or not relief devices should be used, fault trees and event trees were used to model the sequences of events that could lead to adverse consequences during transport of Hydrazine. The event probabilities in the event trees were derived as functions of the parameters whose effects were not known. The impacts of these parameters on the risk of toxic exposures, fires, and explosions were analyzed through a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis and analyzed statistically through an analysis of variance. The analysis allowed the determination of which of the unknown parameters had a significant impact on the risks. It also provided the necessary support to a critical transportation decision even though the values of several key parameters were not known.

Enhancing the Characterization of Epistemic Uncertainties in PM2.5 Risk Analyses.

PubMed

Smith, Anne E; Gans, Will

2015-03-01

The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) is a software tool developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that is widely used inside and outside of EPA to produce quantitative estimates of public health risks from fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ). This article discusses the purpose and appropriate role of a risk analysis tool to support risk management deliberations, and evaluates the functions of BenMAP in this context. It highlights the importance in quantitative risk analyses of characterization of epistemic uncertainty, or outright lack of knowledge, about the true risk relationships being quantified. This article describes and quantitatively illustrates sensitivities of PM2.5 risk estimates to several key forms of epistemic uncertainty that pervade those calculations: the risk coefficient, shape of the risk function, and the relative toxicity of individual PM2.5 constituents. It also summarizes findings from a review of U.S.-based epidemiological evidence regarding the PM2.5 risk coefficient for mortality from long-term exposure. That review shows that the set of risk coefficients embedded in BenMAP substantially understates the range in the literature. We conclude that BenMAP would more usefully fulfill its role as a risk analysis support tool if its functions were extended to better enable and prompt its users to characterize the epistemic uncertainties in their risk calculations. This requires expanded automatic sensitivity analysis functions and more recognition of the full range of uncertainty in risk coefficients. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Effects of Variability and Risk in Selection Utility Analysis: An Empirical Comparison.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rich, Joseph R.; Boudreau, John W.

1987-01-01

Investigated utility estimate variability for the selection utility of using the Programmer Aptitude Test to select computer programmers. Comparison of Monte Carlo results to other risk assessment approaches (sensitivity analysis, break-even analysis, algebraic derivation of the distribtion) suggests that distribution information provided by Monte…

Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA

PubMed Central

Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad

2017-01-01

The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants. PMID:28665325

Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA.

PubMed

Fuentes-Bargues, José Luis; González-Cruz, Mª Carmen; González-Gaya, Cristina; Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad

2017-06-30

The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants.

Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remington, Benjamin C.

2017-09-01

Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

Diagnostic value of stool DNA testing for multiple markers of colorectal cancer and advanced adenoma: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Hua; Xia, Bing-Qing; Jiang, Bo; Wang, Guozhen; Yang, Yi-Peng; Chen, Hao; Li, Bing-Sheng; Xu, An-Gao; Huang, Yun-Bo; Wang, Xin-Ying

2013-08-01

The diagnostic value of stool DNA (sDNA) testing for colorectal neoplasms remains controversial. To compensate for the lack of large-scale unbiased population studies, a meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the diagnostic value of sDNA testing for multiple markers of colorectal cancer (CRC) and advanced adenoma. The PubMed, Science Direct, Biosis Review, Cochrane Library and Embase databases were systematically searched in January 2012 without time restriction. Meta-analysis was performed using a random-effects model using sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic OR (DOR), summary ROC curves, area under the curve (AUC), and 95% CIs as effect measures. Heterogeneity was measured using the χ(2) test and Q statistic; subgroup analysis was also conducted. A total of 20 studies comprising 5876 individuals were eligible. There was no heterogeneity for CRC, but adenoma and advanced adenoma harboured considerable heterogeneity influenced by risk classification and various detection markers. Stratification analysis according to risk classification showed that multiple markers had a high DOR for the high-risk subgroups of both CRC (sensitivity 0.759 [95% CI 0.711 to 0.804]; specificity 0.883 [95% CI 0.846 to 0.913]; AUC 0.906) and advanced adenoma (sensitivity 0.683 [95% CI 0.584 to 0.771]; specificity 0.918 [95% CI 0.866 to 0.954]; AUC 0.946) but not for the average-risk subgroups of either. In the methylation subgroup, sDNA testing had significantly higher DOR for CRC (sensitivity 0.753 [95% CI 0.685 to 0.812]; specificity 0.913 [95% CI 0.860 to 0.950]; AUC 0.918) and advanced adenoma (sensitivity 0.623 [95% CI 0.527 to 0.712]; specificity 0.926 [95% CI 0.882 to 0.958]; AUC 0.910) compared with the mutation subgroup. There was no significant heterogeneity among studies for subgroup analysis. sDNA testing for multiple markers had strong diagnostic significance for CRC and advanced adenoma in high-risk subjects. Methylation makers had more diagnostic value than mutation markers.

Accuracy of screening women at familial risk of breast cancer without a known gene mutation: Individual patient data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Phi, Xuan-Anh; Houssami, Nehmat; Hooning, Maartje J; Riedl, Christopher C; Leach, Martin O; Sardanelli, Francesco; Warner, Ellen; Trop, Isabelle; Saadatmand, Sepideh; Tilanus-Linthorst, Madeleine M A; Helbich, Thomas H; van den Heuvel, Edwin R; de Koning, Harry J; Obdeijn, Inge-Marie; de Bock, Geertruida H

2017-11-01

Women with a strong family history of breast cancer (BC) and without a known gene mutation have an increased risk of developing BC. We aimed to investigate the accuracy of screening using annual mammography with or without magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for these women outside the general population screening program. An individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis was conducted using IPD from six prospective screening trials that had included women at increased risk for BC: only women with a strong familial risk for BC and without a known gene mutation were included in this analysis. A generalised linear mixed model was applied to estimate and compare screening accuracy (sensitivity, specificity and predictive values) for annual mammography with or without MRI. There were 2226 women (median age: 41 years, interquartile range 35-47) with 7478 woman-years of follow-up, with a BC rate of 12 (95% confidence interval 9.3-14) in 1000 woman-years. Mammography screening had a sensitivity of 55% (standard error of mean [SE] 7.0) and a specificity of 94% (SE 1.3). Screening with MRI alone had a sensitivity of 89% (SE 4.6) and a specificity of 83% (SE 2.8). Adding MRI to mammography increased sensitivity to 98% (SE 1.8, P < 0.01 compared to mammography alone) but lowered specificity to 79% (SE 2.7, P < 0.01 compared with mammography alone). In this population of women with strong familial BC risk but without a known gene mutation, in whom BC incidence was high both before and after age 50, adding MRI to mammography substantially increased screening sensitivity but also decreased its specificity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Apparent diffusion coefficient on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in bladder cancer: relations with recurrence/progression risk

PubMed Central

Kikuchi, Ken; Shigihara, Takeshi; Hashimoto, Yuko; Miyajima, Masayuki; Haga, Nobuhiro; Kojima, Yoshiyuki; Shishido, Fumio

2017-01-01

Abstract AIMS: To evaluate the relationship between the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) value for bladder cancer and the recurrence/progression risk of post-transurethral resection (TUR). METHODS: Forty-one patients with initial and non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer underwent MRI from 2009 to 2012. Two radiologists measured ADC values. A pathologist calculated the recurrence/progression scores, and risk was classified based on the scores. Pearson’s correlation was used to analyze the correlations of ADC value with each score and with each risk group, and the optimal cut-off value was established based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Furthermore, the relationship between actual recurrence / progression of cases and ADC values was examined by Unpaird U test. RESULTS: There were significant correlations between ADC value and the recurrence score as well as the progression score (P<0.01, P<0.01, respectively). There were also significant correlations between ADC value and the recurrence risk group as well as progression risk group (P=0.042, P<0.01, respectively). The ADC cut-off value on ROC analysis was 1.365 (sensitivity 100%; specificity 97.4%) for the low and intermediate recurrence risk groups, 1.024 (sensitivity 47.4%; specificity 100%) for the intermediate and high recurrence risk groups, 1.252 (sensitivity 83.3%; specificity 81.3%) for the low and intermediate progression risk groups, and 0.955 (sensitivity 87.5%; specificity 63.2%) between the intermediate and high progression risk groups. The difference between the ADC values of the recurrence and nonrecurrence group in Unpaired t test was significant (P<0.05). CONCLUSION: ADC on MRI in bladder cancer could potentially be useful, non-invasive measurement for estimating the risks of recurrence and progression. PMID:28680010

Genetics and clinical response to warfarin and edoxaban in patients with venous thromboembolism

PubMed Central

Vandell, Alexander G; Walker, Joseph; Brown, Karen S; Zhang, George; Lin, Min; Grosso, Michael A; Mercuri, Michele F

2017-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to investigate whether genetic variants can identify patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) at an increased risk of bleeding with warfarin. Methods Hokusai-venous thromboembolism (Hokusai VTE), a randomised, multinational, double-blind, non-inferiority trial, evaluated the safety and efficacy of edoxaban versus warfarin in patients with VTE initially treated with heparin. In this subanalysis of Hokusai VTE, patients genotyped for variants in CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genes were divided into three warfarin sensitivity types (normal, sensitive and highly sensitive) based on their genotypes. An exploratory analysis was also conducted comparing normal responders to pooled sensitive responders (ie, sensitive and highly sensitive responders). Results The analysis included 47.7% (3956/8292) of the patients in Hokusai VTE. Among 1978 patients randomised to warfarin, 63.0% (1247) were normal responders, 34.1% (675) were sensitive responders and 2.8% (56) were highly sensitive responders. Compared with normal responders, sensitive and highly sensitive responders had heparin therapy discontinued earlier (p<0.001), had a decreased final weekly warfarin dose (p<0.001), spent more time overanticoagulated (p<0.001) and had an increased bleeding risk with warfarin (sensitive responders HR 1.38 [95% CI 1.11 to 1.71], p=0.0035; highly sensitive responders 1.79 [1.09 to 2.99]; p=0.0252). Conclusion In this study, CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes identified patients with VTE at increased bleeding risk with warfarin. Trial registration number NCT00986154. PMID:28689179

Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Long-Tailed Climate Sensitivity Probability Density Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roshan, E.; Mohammadi Khabbazan, M.; Held, H.

2016-12-01

Solar radiation management (SRM) might be able to reduce the anthropogenic global mean temperature rise but unable to do so for other climate variables such as precipitation, particularly with respect to regional disparities due to changes in planetary energy budget. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that trades off the expected welfare-loss from climate policies costs against the climate risks from exceeding an environmental target. Here, in both global- and `Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we study the optimal mix of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic knowledge about climate sensitivity, in our numerics ranging from 1.01°C to 7.17°C. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including temperature risk, global and regional precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized in three scenarios, considering a convex combination of climate risks: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. Our global results represent 100%, 65%, and 90% compliance with 2°C-temperature target and simultaneously 0%, 100%, and 100% compliance with 2°C-compatible-precipitation corridor respectively in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios. On the other hand, our regional results emphasize that SRM would alleviate the global mean temperature to be complied with 2°C-temperature target for about 100%, 95%, and 95% of climate sensitivities in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios, respectively. However, half of the regions suffer a very high precipitation risks when the society only cares about global temperature reduction in temperature-risk-only scenario. Our results indicate that although SRM might almost substitute for mitigation in the global analysis, it only saves about a half of the welfare-loss in a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks.

Prospective identification of adolescent suicide ideation using classification tree analysis: Models for community-based screening.

PubMed

Hill, Ryan M; Oosterhoff, Benjamin; Kaplow, Julie B

2017-07-01

Although a large number of risk markers for suicide ideation have been identified, little guidance has been provided to prospectively identify adolescents at risk for suicide ideation within community settings. The current study addressed this gap in the literature by utilizing classification tree analysis (CTA) to provide a decision-making model for screening adolescents at risk for suicide ideation. Participants were N = 4,799 youth (Mage = 16.15 years, SD = 1.63) who completed both Waves 1 and 2 of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. CTA was used to generate a series of decision rules for identifying adolescents at risk for reporting suicide ideation at Wave 2. Findings revealed 3 distinct solutions with varying sensitivity and specificity for identifying adolescents who reported suicide ideation. Sensitivity of the classification trees ranged from 44.6% to 77.6%. The tree with greatest specificity and lowest sensitivity was based on a history of suicide ideation. The tree with moderate sensitivity and high specificity was based on depressive symptoms, suicide attempts or suicide among family and friends, and social support. The most sensitive but least specific tree utilized these factors and gender, ethnicity, hours of sleep, school-related factors, and future orientation. These classification trees offer community organizations options for instituting large-scale screenings for suicide ideation risk depending on the available resources and modality of services to be provided. This study provides a theoretically and empirically driven model for prospectively identifying adolescents at risk for suicide ideation and has implications for preventive interventions among at-risk youth. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Dietary fiber intake reduces risk for Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer.

PubMed

Sun, Lingli; Zhang, Zhizhong; Xu, Jian; Xu, Gelin; Liu, Xinfeng

2017-09-02

Observational studies suggest an association between dietary fiber intake and risk of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer. However, the results are inconsistent. To conduct a meta-analysis of observational studies to assess this association. All eligible studies were identified by electronic searches in PubMed and Embase through February 2015. Dose-response, subgroup, sensitivity, and publication bias analyses were performed. A total of 15 studies involving 16,885 subjects were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled odds ratio for the highest compared with the lowest dietary fiber intake was 0.52 (95% CI, 0.43-0.64). Stratified analyses for tumor subtype, study design, geographic location, fiber type, publication year, total sample size, and quality score yielded consistent results. Dose-response analysis indicated that a 10-g/d increment in dietary fiber intake was associated with a 31% reduction in Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer risk. Sensitivity analysis restricted to studies with control for conventional risk factors produced similar results, and omission of any single study had little effect on the overall risk estimate. Our findings indicate that dietary fiber intake is inversely associated with risk of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer. Further large prospective studies are warranted.

Association between atopic dermatitis and contact sensitization: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Hamann, Carsten R; Hamann, Dathan; Egeberg, Alexander; Johansen, Jeanne D; Silverberg, Jonathan; Thyssen, Jacob P

2017-07-01

It is unclear whether patients with atopic dermatitis (AD) have an altered prevalence or risk for contact sensitization. Increased exposure to chemicals in topical products together with impaired skin barrier function suggest a higher risk, whereas the immune profile suggests a lower risk. To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between AD and contact sensitization. The PubMed/Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched for articles that reported on contact sensitization in individuals with and without AD. The literature search yielded 10,083 citations; 417 were selected based on title and abstract screening and 74 met inclusion criteria. In a pooled analysis, no significant difference in contact sensitization between AD and controls was evident (random effects model odds ratio [OR] = 0.891; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.771-1.03). There was a positive correlation in studies that compared AD patients with individuals from the general population (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.23-1.93) but an inverse association when comparing with referred populations (OR 0.753, 95% CI 0.63-0.90). Included studies used different tools to diagnose AD and did not always provide information on current or past disease. Patch test allergens varied between studies. No overall relationship between AD and contact sensitization was found. We recommend that clinicians consider patch testing AD patients when allergic contact dermatitis is suspected. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Specifying the ovarian cancer risk threshold of 'premenopausal risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy' for ovarian cancer prevention: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Manchanda, Ranjit; Legood, Rosa; Antoniou, Antonis C; Gordeev, Vladimir S; Menon, Usha

2016-09-01

Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) is the most effective intervention to prevent ovarian cancer (OC). It is only available to high-risk women with >10% lifetime OC risk. This threshold has not been formally tested for cost-effectiveness. To specify the OC risk thresholds for RRSO being cost-effective for preventing OC in premenopausal women. The costs as well as effects of surgical prevention ('RRSO') were compared over a lifetime with 'no RRSO' using a decision analysis model. RRSO was undertaken in premenopausal women >40 years. The model was evaluated at lifetime OC risk levels: 2%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 10%. Costs and outcomes are discounted at 3.5%. Uncertainty in the model was assessed using both deterministic sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Outcomes included in the analyses were OC, breast cancer (BC) and additional deaths from coronary heart disease. Total costs and effects were estimated in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); incidence of OC and BC; as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Published literature, Nurses Health Study, British National Formulary, Cancer Research UK, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines and National Health Service reference costs. The time horizon is lifetime and perspective: payer. Premenopausal RRSO is cost-effective at 4% OC risk (life expectancy gained=42.7 days, ICER=£19 536/QALY) with benefits largely driven by reduction in BC risk. RRSO remains cost-effective at >8.2% OC risk without hormone replacement therapy (ICER=£29 071/QALY, life expectancy gained=21.8 days) or 6%if BC risk reduction=0 (ICER=£27 212/QALY, life expectancy gained=35.3 days). Sensitivity analysis indicated results are not impacted much by costs of surgical prevention or treatment of OC/ BC or cardiovascular disease. However, results were sensitive to RRSO utility scores. Additionally, 37%, 61%, 74%, 84%, 96% and 99.5% simulations on PSA are cost-effective for RRSO at the 2%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 10% levels of OC risk, respectively. Premenopausal RRSO appears to be extremely cost-effective at ≥4% lifetime OC risk, with ≥42.7 days gain in life expectancy if compliance with hormone replacement therapy is high. Current guidelines should be re-evaluated to reduce the RRSO OC risk threshold to benefit a number of at-risk women who presently cannot access risk-reducing surgery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Shen, Yun; Tobia, Michael J; Sommer, Tobias; Obermayer, Klaus

2014-07-01

We derive a family of risk-sensitive reinforcement learning methods for agents, who face sequential decision-making tasks in uncertain environments. By applying a utility function to the temporal difference (TD) error, nonlinear transformations are effectively applied not only to the received rewards but also to the true transition probabilities of the underlying Markov decision process. When appropriate utility functions are chosen, the agents' behaviors express key features of human behavior as predicted by prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979 ), for example, different risk preferences for gains and losses, as well as the shape of subjective probability curves. We derive a risk-sensitive Q-learning algorithm, which is necessary for modeling human behavior when transition probabilities are unknown, and prove its convergence. As a proof of principle for the applicability of the new framework, we apply it to quantify human behavior in a sequential investment task. We find that the risk-sensitive variant provides a significantly better fit to the behavioral data and that it leads to an interpretation of the subject's responses that is indeed consistent with prospect theory. The analysis of simultaneously measured fMRI signals shows a significant correlation of the risk-sensitive TD error with BOLD signal change in the ventral striatum. In addition we find a significant correlation of the risk-sensitive Q-values with neural activity in the striatum, cingulate cortex, and insula that is not present if standard Q-values are used.

Body piercing and metal allergic contact sensitivity: North American contact dermatitis group data from 2007 to 2010.

PubMed

Warshaw, Erin M; Kingsley-Loso, Jaime L; DeKoven, Joel G; Belsito, Donald V; Zug, Kathryn A; Zirwas, Matthew J; Maibach, Howard I; Taylor, James S; Sasseville, Denis; Fowler, Joseph F; Mathias, Charles Gordon Toby; DeLeo, Vincent A; Pratt, Melanie D; Marks, James G; Fransway, Anthony F

2014-01-01

This study aimed to examine the association between piercing and patch test sensitivity to metals (nickel, cobalt, and chromium) in North America. A retrospective analysis of 9334 patients tested by the North American Contact Dermatitis Group from 2007 to 2010 was conducted. Nickel sensitivity was statistically associated with at least 1 piercing (risk ratio [RR], 2.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.26-2.81; P < 0.0001) and nickel sensitivity rates increased with the number of piercings (16% for 1 piercing to 32% for ≥ 5 piercings). Prevalence of nickel sensitivity was higher in females (23.2%) than in males (7.1%), but the association with piercing was stronger in males (RR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.72-3.30; P < 0.0001) than in females (RR, 1.30; CI, 1.13-1.49; P = 0.0002). Crude analysis indicated that cobalt sensitivity was statistically associated with piercing (RR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.40-1.91; P < 0.0001); however, stratified analysis showed that this relationship was confounded by nickel. After adjusting for nickel sensitivity, the adjusted risk ratio for piercing and cobalt was 0.78 (not significant). Chromium sensitivity was negatively associated with piercing (RR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.48-0.75; P < 0.0001). Piercing was statistically associated with sensitivity to nickel. This relationship was dose dependent and stronger in males. Cobalt sensitivity was not associated with piercing when adjusted for nickel. Chromium sensitivity was negatively associated with piercing.

Language evaluation protocol for children aged 2 months to 23 months: analysis of sensitivity and specificity.

PubMed

Labanca, Ludimila; Alves, Cláudia Regina Lindgren; Bragança, Lidia Lourenço Cunha; Dorim, Diego Dias Ramos; Alvim, Cristina Gonçalves; Lemos, Stela Maris Aguiar

2015-01-01

To establish cutoff points for the analysis of the Behavior Observation Form (BOF) of children in the ages of 2 to 23 months and evaluate the sensitivity and specificity by age group and domains (Emission, Reception, and Cognitive Aspects of Language). The sample consisted of 752 children who underwent BOF. Each child was classified as having appropriate language development for the age or having possible risk of language impairment. Performance Indicators (PI) were calculated in each domain as well as the overall PI in all domains. The values for sensitivity and specificity were also calculated. The cutoff points for possible risk of language impairment for each domain and each age group were obtained using the receiver operating characteristics curve. The results of the study revealed that one-third of the assessed children have a risk of language impairment in the first two years of life. The analysis of BOF showed high sensitivity (>90%) in all categories and in all age groups; however, the chance of false-positive results was higher than 20% in the majority of aspects evaluated. It was possible to establish the cutoff points for all categories and age groups with good correlation between sensitivity and specificity, except for the age group of 2 to 6 months. This study provides important contributions to the discussion on the evaluation of the language development of children younger than 2 years.

Performance of FDG-PET/CT in solitary pulmonary nodule based on pre-test likelihood of malignancy: results from the ITALIAN retrospective multicenter trial.

PubMed

Evangelista, Laura; Cuocolo, Alberto; Pace, Leonardo; Mansi, Luigi; Del Vecchio, Silvana; Miletto, Paolo; Sanfilippo, Silvia; Pellegrino, Sara; Guerra, Luca; Pepe, Giovanna; Peluso, Giuseppina; Salvatore, Marco; Galicchio, Rosj; Zuffante, Michele; Annunziata, Salvatore; Farsad, Mohsen; Chiaravalloti, Agostino; Spadafora, Marco

2018-05-07

The aim of this study was to determine the performance of 18 F-FDG-PET/CT in patients with solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN), stratifying the risk according to the likelihood of pulmonary malignancy. FDG-PET/CT of 502 patients, stratified for pre-test cancer risk, were retrospectively analyzed. FDG uptake in SPN was assessed by a 4-point scoring system and semiquantitative analysis using the ratio between SUVmax in SPN and SUVmean in mediastinal blood pool (BP) and between SUVmax in SPN and SUVmean in liver (L). Histopathology and/or follow-up data were used as standard of reference. SPN was malignant in 180 (36%) patients, benign in 175 (35%), and indeterminate in 147 (29%). The 355 patients with a definitive SPN nature (malignant or benign) were considered for the analysis. Considering FDG uptake ≥ 2, sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values, and accuracy were 85.6%, 85.7%, 86%, 85.2%, and 85.6% respectively. Sensitivity and PPV were higher (P < 0.05) in intermediate and high-risk patients, while specificity and NPV were higher (P < 0.05) in low-risk patients. On receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the cut-offs for better discrimination between benign and malignant SPN were 1.56 (sensitivity 81% and specificity 87%) and 1.12 (sensitivity 81% and specificity 86%) for SUVmax/SUVmeanBP and SUVmax/SUVmeanL respectively. In intermediate and high-risk patients, including the SUVmax/SUVmeanBP, the specificity shifted from 85% and 50% to 100%. Visual FDG-PET/CT has an acceptable performance in patients with SPN, but accuracy improves when SUVratios are considered, particularly in patients with intermediate and high risk of malignancy.

Risk Perception and Risk-Taking Behaviour during Adolescence: The Influence of Personality and Gender.

PubMed

Reniers, Renate L E P; Murphy, Laura; Lin, Ashleigh; Bartolomé, Sandra Para; Wood, Stephen J

2016-01-01

This study investigated the influence of personality characteristics and gender on adolescents' perception of risk and their risk-taking behaviour. Male and female participants (157 females: 116 males, aged 13-20) completed self-report measures on risk perception, risk-taking and personality. Male participants perceived behaviours as less risky, reportedly took more risks, were less sensitive to negative outcomes and less socially anxious than female participants. Path analysis identified a model in which age, behavioural inhibition and impulsiveness directly influenced risk perception, while age, social anxiety, impulsiveness, sensitivity to reward, behavioural inhibition and risk perception itself were directly or indirectly associated with risk-taking behaviour. Age and behavioural inhibition had direct relationships with social anxiety, and reward sensitivity was associated with impulsiveness. The model was representative for the whole sample and male and female groups separately. The observed relationship between age and social anxiety and the influence this may have on risk-taking behaviour could be key for reducing adolescent risk-taking behaviour. Even though adolescents may understand the riskiness of their behaviour and estimate their vulnerability to risk at a similar level to adults, factors such as anxiety regarding social situations, sensitivity to reward and impulsiveness may exert their influence and make these individuals prone to taking risks. If these associations are proven causal, these factors are, and will continue to be, important targets in prevention and intervention efforts.

Risk Perception and Risk-Taking Behaviour during Adolescence: The Influence of Personality and Gender

PubMed Central

Reniers, Renate L. E. P.; Murphy, Laura; Lin, Ashleigh; Bartolomé, Sandra Para; Wood, Stephen J.

2016-01-01

This study investigated the influence of personality characteristics and gender on adolescents’ perception of risk and their risk-taking behaviour. Male and female participants (157 females: 116 males, aged 13–20) completed self-report measures on risk perception, risk-taking and personality. Male participants perceived behaviours as less risky, reportedly took more risks, were less sensitive to negative outcomes and less socially anxious than female participants. Path analysis identified a model in which age, behavioural inhibition and impulsiveness directly influenced risk perception, while age, social anxiety, impulsiveness, sensitivity to reward, behavioural inhibition and risk perception itself were directly or indirectly associated with risk-taking behaviour. Age and behavioural inhibition had direct relationships with social anxiety, and reward sensitivity was associated with impulsiveness. The model was representative for the whole sample and male and female groups separately. The observed relationship between age and social anxiety and the influence this may have on risk-taking behaviour could be key for reducing adolescent risk-taking behaviour. Even though adolescents may understand the riskiness of their behaviour and estimate their vulnerability to risk at a similar level to adults, factors such as anxiety regarding social situations, sensitivity to reward and impulsiveness may exert their influence and make these individuals prone to taking risks. If these associations are proven causal, these factors are, and will continue to be, important targets in prevention and intervention efforts. PMID:27100081

Emission rate modeling and risk assessment at an automobile plant from painting operations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, A.; Shrivastava, A.; Kulkarni, A.

Pollution from automobile plants from painting operations has been addressed in the Clean Act Amendments (1990). The estimation of pollutant emissions from automobile painting operation were done mostly by approximate procedures than by actual calculations. The purpose of this study was to develop a methodology for calculating the emissions of the pollutants from painting operation in an automobile plant. Five scenarios involving an automobile painting operation, located in Columbus (Ohio), were studied for pollutant emission and concomitant risk associated with that. In the study of risk, a sensitivity analysis was done using Crystal Ball{reg{underscore}sign} on the parameters involved in risk.more » This software uses the Monte Carlo principle. The most sensitive factor in the risk analysis was the ground level concentration of the pollutants. All scenarios studied met the safety goal (a risk value of 1 x 10{sup {minus}6}) with different confidence levels. The highest level of confidence in meeting the safety goal was displayed by Scenario 1 (Alpha Industries). The results from the scenarios suggest that risk is associated with the quantity of released toxic pollutants. The sensitivity analysis of the various parameter shows that average spray rate of paint is the most important parameter in the estimation of pollutants from the painting operations. The entire study is a complete module that can be used by the environmental pollution control agencies for estimation of pollution levels and estimation of associated risk. The study can be further extended to other operations in an automobile industry or to different industries.« less

Genetics and clinical response to warfarin and edoxaban in patients with venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Vandell, Alexander G; Walker, Joseph; Brown, Karen S; Zhang, George; Lin, Min; Grosso, Michael A; Mercuri, Michele F

2017-11-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether genetic variants can identify patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) at an increased risk of bleeding with warfarin. Hokusai-venous thromboembolism (Hokusai VTE), a randomised, multinational, double-blind, non-inferiority trial, evaluated the safety and efficacy of edoxaban versus warfarin in patients with VTE initially treated with heparin. In this subanalysis of Hokusai VTE, patients genotyped for variants in CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genes were divided into three warfarin sensitivity types (normal, sensitive and highly sensitive) based on their genotypes. An exploratory analysis was also conducted comparing normal responders to pooled sensitive responders (ie, sensitive and highly sensitive responders). The analysis included 47.7% (3956/8292) of the patients in Hokusai VTE. Among 1978 patients randomised to warfarin, 63.0% (1247) were normal responders, 34.1% (675) were sensitive responders and 2.8% (56) were highly sensitive responders. Compared with normal responders, sensitive and highly sensitive responders had heparin therapy discontinued earlier (p<0.001), had a decreased final weekly warfarin dose (p<0.001), spent more time overanticoagulated (p<0.001) and had an increased bleeding risk with warfarin (sensitive responders HR 1.38 [95% CI 1.11 to 1.71], p=0.0035; highly sensitive responders 1.79 [1.09 to 2.99]; p=0.0252). In this study, CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes identified patients with VTE at increased bleeding risk with warfarin. NCT00986154. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

When does mass screening for open neural tube defects in low-risk pregnancies result in cost savings?

PubMed Central

Tosi, L L; Detsky, A S; Roye, D P; Morden, M L

1987-01-01

Using a decision analysis model, we estimated the savings that might be derived from a mass prenatal screening program aimed at detecting open neural tube defects (NTDs) in low-risk pregnancies. Our baseline analysis showed that screening v. no screening could be expected to save approximately $8 per pregnancy given a cost of $7.50 for the maternal serum alpha-feto-protein (MSAFP) test and a cost of $42,507 for hospital and rehabilitation services for the first 10 years of life for a child with spina bifida. When a more liberal estimate of the costs of caring for such a child was used, the savings with the screening program were more substantial. We performed extensive sensitivity analyses, which showed that the savings were somewhat sensitive to the cost of the MSAFP test and highly sensitive to the specificity (but not the sensitivity) of the test. A screening program for NTDs in low-risk pregnancies may result in substantial savings in direct health care costs if the screening protocol is followed rigorously and efficiently. PMID:2433011

Extracting additional risk managers information from a risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in deli meats.

PubMed

Pérez-Rodríguez, F; van Asselt, E D; Garcia-Gimeno, R M; Zurera, G; Zwietering, M H

2007-05-01

The risk assessment study of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods conducted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is an example of an extensive quantitative microbiological risk assessment that could be used by risk analysts and other scientists to obtain information and by managers and stakeholders to make decisions on food safety management. The present study was conducted to investigate how detailed sensitivity analysis can be used by assessors to extract more information on risk factors and how results can be communicated to managers and stakeholders in an understandable way. The extended sensitivity analysis revealed that the extremes at the right side of the dose distribution (at consumption, 9 to 11.5 log CFU per serving) were responsible for most of the cases of listeriosis simulated. For concentration at retail, values below the detection limit of 0.04 CFU/g and the often used limit for L. monocytogenes of 100 CFU/g (also at retail) were associated with a high number of annual cases of listeriosis (about 29 and 82%, respectively). This association can be explained by growth of L. monocytogenes at both average and extreme values of temperature and time, indicating that a wide distribution can lead to high risk levels. Another finding is the importance of the maximal population density (i.e., the maximum concentration of L. monocytogenes assumed at a certain temperature) for accurately estimating the risk of infection by opportunistic pathogens such as L. monocytogenes. According to the obtained results, mainly concentrations corresponding to the highest maximal population densities caused risk in the simulation. However, sensitivity analysis applied to the uncertainty parameters revealed that prevalence at retail was the most important source of uncertainty in the model.

Reducing Production Basis Risk through Rainfall Intensity Frequency (RIF) Indexes: Global Sensitivity Analysis' Implication on Policy Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus; Huffaker, Ray; Munoz-Carpena, Rafael

2016-04-01

The weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions with swift compensation at affordable premium thanks to its minimal adverse selection and moral hazard. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing causes the presence of "production basis risk" that the selected weather indexes and their thresholds do not correspond to actual damages. To reduce basis risk without additional data collection cost, we propose the use of rain intensity and frequency as indexes as it could offer better protection at the lower premium by avoiding basis risk-strike trade-off inherent in the total rainfall index. We present empirical evidences and modeling results that even under the similar cumulative rainfall and temperature environment, yield can significantly differ especially for drought sensitive crops. We further show that deriving the trigger level and payoff function from regression between historical yield and total rainfall data may pose significant basis risk owing to their non-unique relationship in the insured range of rainfall. Lastly, we discuss the design of index insurance in terms of contract specifications based on the results from global sensitivity analysis.

Fruit and vegetable consumption and risk of bladder cancer: an updated meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Liu, Huan; Wang, Xing-Chun; Hu, Guang-Hui; Guo, Zhui-Feng; Lai, Peng; Xu, Liang; Huang, Tian-Bao; Xu, Yun-Fei

2015-11-01

This meta-analysis was conducted to assess the association between fruit and vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk. Eligible studies published up to August 2014 were retrieved both through a computer search of PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane library and through a manual review of references. The summary relative risks with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the highest versus the lowest intakes of fruits and vegetables were calculated with random-effects models. Heterogeneity and publication bias were also evaluated. Potential sources of heterogeneity were detected with metaregression. Subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were also performed. A total of 27 studies (12 cohort and 15 case-control studies) were included in this meta-analysis. The summary relative risks for the highest versus lowest were 0.84 (95% CI: 0.72-0.96) for vegetable intake and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.73-0.89) for fruit intake. The dose-response analysis showed that the risk of bladder cancer decreased by 8% (relative risk=0.92; 95% CI: 0.87-0.97) and 9% (relative risk=0.91; 95% CI: 0.83-0.99) for every 200 g/day increment in vegetable and fruit consumption, respectively. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of the results. Our findings suggest that intake of vegetables and fruits may significantly reduce the risk of bladder cancer. Further well-designed prospective studies are warranted to confirm these findings.

Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Probabilistic Information on Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi; Roshan, Elnaz; Held, Hermann

2017-04-01

In principle solar radiation management (SRM) offers an option to ameliorate anthropogenic temperature rise. However we cannot expect it to simultaneously compensate for anthropogenic changes in further climate variables in a perfect manner. Here, we ask to what extent a proponent of the 2°C-temperature target would apply SRM in conjunction with mitigation in view of global or regional disparities in precipitation changes. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that makes a trade-off between the expected welfare-loss from climate policy costs and the climate risks from transgressing a climate target. Here, in both global-scale and 'Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we evaluate the optimal mixture of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic information about climate sensitivity. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including not only temperature risk, but also globally aggregated and regionally disaggregated precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized for the following three valuation scenarios: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. For now, the Giorgi regions are treated by equal weight. We find that for regionally differentiated precipitation targets, the usage of SRM will be comparably more restricted. In the course of time, a cooling of up to 1.3°C can be attributed to SRM for the latter scenario and for a median climate sensitivity of 3°C (for a global target only, this number reduces by 0.5°C). Our results indicate that although SRM would almost completely substitute for mitigation in the globally aggregated analysis, it only saves 70% to 75% of the welfare-loss compared to a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, approximately 4% in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks in precipitation-risk-only and both-risks scenarios. It remains to be shown how the inclusion of further risks or different regional weights would change that picture.

How can sensitivity analysis improve the robustness of mathematical models utilized by the re/insurance industry?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noacco, V.; Wagener, T.; Pianosi, F.; Philp, T.

2017-12-01

Insurance companies provide insurance against a wide range of threats, such as natural catastrophes, nuclear incidents and terrorism. To quantify risk and support investment decisions, mathematical models are used, for example to set the premiums charged to clients that protect from financial loss, should deleterious events occur. While these models are essential tools for adequately assessing the risk attached to an insurer's portfolio, their development is costly and their value for decision-making may be limited by an incomplete understanding of uncertainty and sensitivity. Aside from the business need to understand risk and uncertainty, the insurance sector also faces regulation which requires them to test their models in such a way that uncertainties are appropriately captured and that plans are in place to assess the risks and their mitigation. The building and testing of models constitutes a high cost for insurance companies, and it is a time intensive activity. This study uses an established global sensitivity analysis toolbox (SAFE) to more efficiently capture the uncertainties and sensitivities embedded in models used by a leading re/insurance firm, with structured approaches to validate these models and test the impact of assumptions on the model predictions. It is hoped that this in turn will lead to better-informed and more robust business decisions.

Evaluation of Contamination Inspection and Analysis Methods through Modeling System Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seasly, Elaine; Dever, Jason; Stuban, Steven M. F.

2016-01-01

Contamination is usually identified as a risk on the risk register for sensitive space systems hardware. Despite detailed, time-consuming, and costly contamination control efforts during assembly, integration, and test of space systems, contaminants are still found during visual inspections of hardware. Improved methods are needed to gather information during systems integration to catch potential contamination issues earlier and manage contamination risks better. This research explores evaluation of contamination inspection and analysis methods to determine optical system sensitivity to minimum detectable molecular contamination levels based on IEST-STD-CC1246E non-volatile residue (NVR) cleanliness levels. Potential future degradation of the system is modeled given chosen modules representative of optical elements in an optical system, minimum detectable molecular contamination levels for a chosen inspection and analysis method, and determining the effect of contamination on the system. By modeling system performance based on when molecular contamination is detected during systems integration and at what cleanliness level, the decision maker can perform trades amongst different inspection and analysis methods and determine if a planned method is adequate to meet system requirements and manage contamination risk.

Population and High-Risk Group Screening for Glaucoma: The Los Angeles Latino Eye Study

PubMed Central

Francis, Brian A.; Vigen, Cheryl; Lai, Mei-Ying; Winarko, Jonathan; Nguyen, Betsy; Azen, Stanley

2011-01-01

Purpose. To evaluate the ability of various screening tests, both individually and in combination, to detect glaucoma in the general Latino population and high-risk subgroups. Methods. The Los Angeles Latino Eye Study is a population-based study of eye disease in Latinos 40 years of age and older. Participants (n = 6082) underwent Humphrey visual field testing (HVF), frequency doubling technology (FDT) perimetry, measurement of intraocular pressure (IOP) and central corneal thickness (CCT), and independent assessment of optic nerve vertical cup disc (C/D) ratio. Screening parameters were evaluated for three definitions of glaucoma based on optic disc, visual field, and a combination of both. Analyses were also conducted for high-risk subgroups (family history of glaucoma, diabetes mellitus, and age ≥65 years). Sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated for those continuous parameters independently associated with glaucoma. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was used to develop a multivariate algorithm for glaucoma screening. Results. Preset cutoffs for screening parameters yielded a generally poor balance of sensitivity and specificity (sensitivity/specificity for IOP ≥21 mm Hg and C/D ≥0.8 was 0.24/0.97 and 0.60/0.98, respectively). Assessment of high-risk subgroups did not improve the sensitivity/specificity of individual screening parameters. A CART analysis using multiple screening parameters—C/D, HVF, and IOP—substantially improved the balance of sensitivity and specificity (sensitivity/specificity 0.92/0.92). Conclusions. No single screening parameter is useful for glaucoma screening. However, a combination of vertical C/D ratio, HVF, and IOP provides the best balance of sensitivity/specificity and is likely to provide the highest yield in glaucoma screening programs. PMID:21245400

Comparison of linear–stochastic and nonlinear–deterministic algorithms in the analysis of 15-minute clinical ECGs to predict risk of arrhythmic death

PubMed Central

Skinner, James E; Meyer, Michael; Nester, Brian A; Geary, Una; Taggart, Pamela; Mangione, Antoinette; Ramalanjaona, George; Terregino, Carol; Dalsey, William C

2009-01-01

Objective: Comparative algorithmic evaluation of heartbeat series in low-to-high risk cardiac patients for the prospective prediction of risk of arrhythmic death (AD). Background: Heartbeat variation reflects cardiac autonomic function and risk of AD. Indices based on linear stochastic models are independent risk factors for AD in post-myocardial infarction (post-MI) cohorts. Indices based on nonlinear deterministic models have superior predictability in retrospective data. Methods: Patients were enrolled (N = 397) in three emergency departments upon presenting with chest pain and were determined to be at low-to-high risk of acute MI (>7%). Brief ECGs were recorded (15 min) and R-R intervals assessed by three nonlinear algorithms (PD2i, DFA, and ApEn) and four conventional linear-stochastic measures (SDNN, MNN, 1/f-Slope, LF/HF). Out-of-hospital AD was determined by modified Hinkle–Thaler criteria. Results: All-cause mortality at one-year follow-up was 10.3%, with 7.7% adjudicated to be AD. The sensitivity and relative risk for predicting AD was highest at all time-points for the nonlinear PD2i algorithm (p ≤0.001). The sensitivity at 30 days was 100%, specificity 58%, and relative risk >100 (p ≤0.001); sensitivity at 360 days was 95%, specificity 58%, and relative risk >11.4 (p ≤0.001). Conclusions: Heartbeat analysis by the time-dependent nonlinear PD2i algorithm is comparatively the superior test. PMID:19707283

IL-8 predicts pediatric oncology patients with febrile neutropenia at low risk for bacteremia.

PubMed

Cost, Carrye R; Stegner, Martha M; Leonard, David; Leavey, Patrick

2013-04-01

Despite a low bacteremia rate, pediatric oncology patients are frequently admitted for febrile neutropenia. A pediatric risk prediction model with high sensitivity to identify patients at low risk for bacteremia is not available. We performed a single-institution prospective cohort study of pediatric oncology patients with febrile neutropenia to create a risk prediction model using clinical factors, respiratory viral infection, and cytokine expression. Pediatric oncology patients with febrile neutropenia were enrolled between March 30, 2010 and April 1, 2011 and managed per institutional protocol. Blood samples for C-reactive protein and cytokine expression and nasopharyngeal swabs for respiratory viral testing were obtained. Medical records were reviewed for clinical data. Statistical analysis utilized mixed multiple logistic regression modeling. During the 12-month period, 195 febrile neutropenia episodes were enrolled. There were 24 (12%) episodes of bacteremia. Univariate analysis revealed several factors predictive for bacteremia, and interleukin (IL)-8 was the most predictive variable in the multivariate stepwise logistic regression. Low serum IL-8 predicted patients at low risk for bacteremia with a sensitivity of 0.9 and negative predictive value of 0.98. IL-8 is a highly sensitive predictor for patients at low risk for bacteremia. IL-8 should be utilized in a multi-institution prospective trial to assign risk stratification to pediatric patients admitted with febrile neutropenia.

Use of multi-criteria decision analysis to identify potentially dangerous glacial lakes.

PubMed

Kougkoulos, Ioannis; Cook, Simon J; Jomelli, Vincent; Clarke, Leon; Symeonakis, Elias; Dortch, Jason M; Edwards, Laura A; Merad, Myriam

2018-04-15

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) represent a significant threat in deglaciating environments, necessitating the development of GLOF hazard and risk assessment procedures. Here, we outline a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach that can be used to rapidly identify potentially dangerous lakes in regions without existing tailored GLOF risk assessments, where a range of glacial lake types exist, and where field data are sparse or non-existent. Our MCDA model (1) is desk-based and uses freely and widely available data inputs and software, and (2) allows the relative risk posed by a range of glacial lake types to be assessed simultaneously within any region. A review of the factors that influence GLOF risk, combined with the strict rules of criteria selection inherent to MCDA, has allowed us to identify 13 exhaustive, non-redundant, and consistent risk criteria. We use our MCDA model to assess the risk of 16 extant glacial lakes and 6 lakes that have already generated GLOFs, and found that our results agree well with previous studies. For the first time in GLOF risk assessment, we employed sensitivity analyses to test the strength of our model results and assumptions, and to identify lakes that are sensitive to the criteria and risk thresholds used. A key benefit of the MCDA method is that sensitivity analyses are readily undertaken. Overall, these sensitivity analyses lend support to our model, although we suggest that further work is required to determine the relative importance of assessment criteria, and the thresholds that determine the level of risk for each criterion. As a case study, the tested method was then applied to 25 potentially dangerous lakes in the Bolivian Andes, where GLOF risk is poorly understood; 3 lakes are found to pose 'medium' or 'high' risk, and require further detailed investigation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association among Dietary Flavonoids, Flavonoid Subclasses and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Hua, Xiaoli; Yu, Lili; You, Ruxu; Yang, Yu; Liao, Jing; Chen, Dongsheng; Yu, Lixiu

2016-01-01

Previous studies have indicated that intake of dietary flavonoids or flavonoid subclasses is associated with the ovarian cancer risk, but presented controversial results. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of these associations. We performed a search in PubMed, Google Scholar and ISI Web of Science from their inception to April 25, 2015 to select studies on the association among dietary flavonoids, flavonoid subclasses and ovarian cancer risk. The information was extracted by two independent authors. We assessed the heterogeneity, sensitivity, publication bias and quality of the articles. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled risk estimates. Five cohort studies and seven case-control studies were included in the final meta-analysis. We observed that intake of dietary flavonoids can decrease ovarian cancer risk, which was demonstrated by pooled RR (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68-0.98). In a subgroup analysis by flavonoid subtypes, the ovarian cancer risk was also decreased for isoflavones (RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.50-0.92) and flavonols (RR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.58-0.80). While there was no compelling evidence that consumption of flavones (RR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.71-1.03) could decrease ovarian cancer risk, which revealed part sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed based on the results of Funnel plot analysis and Egger's test (p = 0.26). This meta-analysis suggested that consumption of dietary flavonoids and subtypes (isoflavones, flavonols) has a protective effect against ovarian cancer with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer except for flavones consumption. Nevertheless, further investigations on a larger population covering more flavonoid subclasses are warranted.

Association among Dietary Flavonoids, Flavonoid Subclasses and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

You, Ruxu; Yang, Yu; Liao, Jing; Chen, Dongsheng; Yu, Lixiu

2016-01-01

Background Previous studies have indicated that intake of dietary flavonoids or flavonoid subclasses is associated with the ovarian cancer risk, but presented controversial results. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of these associations. Methods We performed a search in PubMed, Google Scholar and ISI Web of Science from their inception to April 25, 2015 to select studies on the association among dietary flavonoids, flavonoid subclasses and ovarian cancer risk. The information was extracted by two independent authors. We assessed the heterogeneity, sensitivity, publication bias and quality of the articles. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled risk estimates. Results Five cohort studies and seven case-control studies were included in the final meta-analysis. We observed that intake of dietary flavonoids can decrease ovarian cancer risk, which was demonstrated by pooled RR (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68–0.98). In a subgroup analysis by flavonoid subtypes, the ovarian cancer risk was also decreased for isoflavones (RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.50–0.92) and flavonols (RR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.58–0.80). While there was no compelling evidence that consumption of flavones (RR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.71–1.03) could decrease ovarian cancer risk, which revealed part sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed based on the results of Funnel plot analysis and Egger’s test (p = 0.26). Conclusions This meta-analysis suggested that consumption of dietary flavonoids and subtypes (isoflavones, flavonols) has a protective effect against ovarian cancer with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer except for flavones consumption. Nevertheless, further investigations on a larger population covering more flavonoid subclasses are warranted. PMID:26960146

Environmental sensitivity mapping and risk assessment for oil spill along the Chennai Coast in India.

PubMed

Kankara, R S; Arockiaraj, S; Prabhu, K

2016-05-15

Integration of oil spill modeling with coastal resource information could be useful for protecting the coastal environment from oil spills. A scenario-based risk assessment and sensitivity indexing were performed for the Chennai coast by integrating a coastal resource information system and an oil spill trajectory model. The fate analysis of spilled oil showed that 55% of oil out of a total volume of 100m(3) remained in the water column, affecting 800m of the shoreline. The seasonal scenarios show major impact during the southwest (SW) and northeast (NE) monsoons and more fatal effects on marine pelagic organisms during SW monsoon. The Oil Spill Risk Assessment Modeler tool was constructed in a geographic information systems (GIS) platform to analyze the risks, sensitivity mapping, and priority indexing of resources that are likely to be affected by oil spills along the Chennai coast. The results of sensitivity mapping and the risk assessment results can help organizations take measures to combat oil spills in a timely manner. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Retinopathy of Prematurity (CHOP ROP) Model.

PubMed

Binenbaum, Gil; Ying, Gui-Shuang; Tomlinson, Lauren A

2017-08-01

The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Retinopathy of Prematurity (CHOP ROP) model uses birth weight (BW), gestational age at birth (GA), and weight gain rate to predict the risk of severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). In a model development study, it predicted all infants requiring treatment, while greatly reducing the number of examinations compared with current screening guidelines. To validate the CHOP ROP model in a multicenter cohort that is large enough to obtain a precise estimate of the model's sensitivity for treatment-requiring ROP. This investigation was a secondary analysis of data from the Postnatal Growth and Retinopathy of Prematurity (G-ROP) Study. The setting was 30 hospitals in the United States and Canada between January 1, 2006, and June 30, 2012. The dates of analysis were September 28 to October 5, 2015. Participants were premature infants at risk for ROP with a known ROP outcome. Sensitivity for Early Treatment of Retinopathy of Prematurity type 1 ROP and potential reduction in the number of infants requiring examinations. In the primary analysis, the CHOP ROP model was applied weekly to predict the risk of ROP. If the risk was above a cut-point level (high risk), examinations were indicated, while low-risk infants received no examinations. In a secondary analysis, low-risk infants received fewer examinations rather than no examinations. Participants included 7483 premature infants at risk for ROP with a known ROP outcome. Their median BW was 1070 g (range, 310-3000 g), and their median GA was 28 weeks (range, 22-35 weeks). Among them, 3575 (47.8%) were female, and their race/ethnicity was 3615 white (48.3%), 2310 black (30.9%), 233 Asian (3.1%), 93 Pacific Islander (1.2%), and 40 American Indian/Alaskan native (0.5%). The original CHOP ROP model correctly predicted 452 of 459 infants who developed type 1 ROP (sensitivity, 98.5%; 95% CI, 96.9%-99.3%), reducing the number of infants requiring examinations by 34.3% if only high-risk infants received examinations. Lowering the cut point to capture all type 1 ROP cases (sensitivity, 100%; 95% CI, 99.2%-100%) resulted in only 6.8% of infants not requiring examinations. However, if low-risk infants were examined at 37 weeks' postmenstrual age and followed up only if ROP was present at that examination, all type 1 ROP cases would be captured, and the number of examinations performed among infants with GA exceeding 27 weeks would be reduced by 28.4%. The CHOP ROP model demonstrated high but not 100% sensitivity and may be better used to reduce examination frequency. The model might be used reliably to guide a modified ROP screening schedule and decrease the number of examinations performed.

A model-based analysis of decision making under risk in obsessive-compulsive and hoarding disorders.

PubMed

Aranovich, Gabriel J; Cavagnaro, Daniel R; Pitt, Mark A; Myung, Jay I; Mathews, Carol A

2017-07-01

Attitudes towards risk are highly consequential in clinical disorders thought to be prone to "risky behavior", such as substance dependence, as well as those commonly associated with excessive risk aversion, such as obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and hoarding disorder (HD). Moreover, it has recently been suggested that attitudes towards risk may serve as a behavioral biomarker for OCD. We investigated the risk preferences of participants with OCD and HD using a novel adaptive task and a quantitative model from behavioral economics that decomposes risk preferences into outcome sensitivity and probability sensitivity. Contrary to expectation, compared to healthy controls, participants with OCD and HD exhibited less outcome sensitivity, implying less risk aversion in the standard economic framework. In addition, risk attitudes were strongly correlated with depression, hoarding, and compulsion scores, while compulsion (hoarding) scores were associated with more (less) "rational" risk preferences. These results demonstrate how fundamental attitudes towards risk relate to specific psychopathology and thereby contribute to our understanding of the cognitive manifestations of mental disorders. In addition, our findings indicate that the conclusion made in recent work that decision making under risk is unaltered in OCD is premature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Risk Assessment: Technical Guidance Manual for DoD Installations and Built Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-06

climate change risks to DoD installations and the built environment. The approach, which we call “decision-scaling,” reveals the core sensitivity of...DoD installations to climate change . It is designed to illuminate the sensitivity of installations and their supporting infrastructure systems...including water and energy, to climate changes and other uncertainties without dependence on climate change projections. In this way the analysis and

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

2018-01-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Novel risk score of contrast-induced nephropathy after percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Ji, Ling; Su, XiaoFeng; Qin, Wei; Mi, XuHua; Liu, Fei; Tang, XiaoHong; Li, Zi; Yang, LiChuan

2015-08-01

Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a major cause of acute kidney injury. In this study, we established a comprehensive risk score model to assess risk of CIN after PCI procedure, which could be easily used in a clinical environment. A total of 805 PCI patients, divided into analysis cohort (70%) and validation cohort (30%), were enrolled retrospectively in this study. Risk factors for CIN were identified using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression in the analysis cohort. Risk score model was developed based on multiple regression coefficients. Sensitivity and specificity of the new risk score system was validated in the validation cohort. Comparisons between the new risk score model and previous reported models were applied. The incidence of post-PCI CIN in the analysis cohort (n = 565) was 12%. Considerably high CIN incidence (50%) was observed in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Age >75, body mass index (BMI) >25, myoglobin level, cardiac function level, hypoalbuminaemia, history of chronic kidney disease (CKD), Intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) and peripheral vascular disease (PVD) were identified as independent risk factors of post-PCI CIN. A novel risk score model was established using multivariate regression coefficients, which showed highest sensitivity and specificity (0.917, 95%CI 0.877-0.957) compared with previous models. A new post-PCI CIN risk score model was developed based on a retrospective study of 805 patients. Application of this model might be helpful to predict CIN in patients undergoing PCI procedure. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Maternal gestational smoking, diabetes, alcohol drinking, pre-pregnancy obesity and the risk of cryptorchidism: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Zhang, Lin; Wang, Xing-Huan; Zheng, Xin-Min; Liu, Tong-Zu; Zhang, Wei-Bin; Zheng, Hang; Chen, Mi-Feng

2015-01-01

Maternal gestational smoking, diabetes, alcohol drinking, and pre-pregnancy obesity are thought to increase the risk of cryptorchidism in newborn males, but the evidence is inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on the association between maternal gestational smoking, diabetes, alcohol drinking, and pre-pregnancy obesity and the risk of cryptorchidism. Articles were retrieved by searching PubMed and ScienceDirect, and the meta-analysis was conducted using Stata/SE 12.0 software. Sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the influence of confounding variables. We selected 32 articles, including 12 case-control, five nested case-control, and 15 cohort studies. The meta-analysis showed that maternal smoking (OR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.11-1.23) or diabetes (OR = 1.21, 95%CI: 1.00-1.46) during pregnancy were associated with increased risk of cryptorchidism. Overall, the association between maternal alcohol drinking (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.87-1.07), pre-pregnancy body mass index (OR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.95-1.09) and risk of cryptorchidism were not statistically significant. Additional analysis showed reduced risk (OR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.82-0.96) of cryptorchidism with moderate alcohol drinking during pregnancy. No dose-response relationship was observed for increments in body mass index in the risk of cryptorchidism. Sensitivity analysis revealed an unstable result for the association between maternal diabetes, alcohol drinking and cryptorchidism. Moderate heterogeneity was detected in studies of the effect of maternal alcohol drinking and diabetes. No publication bias was detected. Maternal gestational smoking, but not maternal pre-pregnancy overweight or obesity, was associated with increased cryptorchidism risk in the offspring. Moderate alcohol drinking may reduce the risk of cryptorchidism while gestational diabetes may be a risk factor, but further studies are needed to verify this.

Sensitivity Analysis of Weather Variables on Offsite Consequence Analysis Tools in South Korea and the United States.

PubMed

Kim, Min-Uk; Moon, Kyong Whan; Sohn, Jong-Ryeul; Byeon, Sang-Hoon

2018-05-18

We studied sensitive weather variables for consequence analysis, in the case of chemical leaks on the user side of offsite consequence analysis (OCA) tools. We used OCA tools Korea Offsite Risk Assessment (KORA) and Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) in South Korea and the United States, respectively. The chemicals used for this analysis were 28% ammonia (NH₃), 35% hydrogen chloride (HCl), 50% hydrofluoric acid (HF), and 69% nitric acid (HNO₃). The accident scenarios were based on leakage accidents in storage tanks. The weather variables were air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and atmospheric stability. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) program for dummy regression analysis. Sensitivity analysis showed that impact distance was not sensitive to humidity. Impact distance was most sensitive to atmospheric stability, and was also more sensitive to air temperature than wind speed, according to both the KORA and ALOHA tools. Moreover, the weather variables were more sensitive in rural conditions than in urban conditions, with the ALOHA tool being more influenced by weather variables than the KORA tool. Therefore, if using the ALOHA tool instead of the KORA tool in rural conditions, users should be careful not to cause any differences in impact distance due to input errors of weather variables, with the most sensitive one being atmospheric stability.

Cancer risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the soils from Jiaozhou Bay wetland.

PubMed

Yang, Wei; Lang, Yinhai; Li, Guoliang

2014-10-01

To estimate the cancer risk exposed to the PAHs in Jiaozhou Bay wetland soils, a probabilistic health risk assessment was conducted based on Monte Carlo simulations. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the input variables that contribute most to the cancer risk assessment. Three age groups were selected to estimate the cancer risk via four exposure pathways (soil ingestion, food ingestion, dermal contact and inhalation). The results revealed that the 95th percentiles cancer risks for children, teens and adults were 9.11×10(-6), 1.04×10(-5) and 7.08×10(-5), respectively. The cancer risks for three age groups were at acceptable range (10(-6)-10(-4)), indicating no potential cancer risk. For different exposure pathways, food ingestion was the major exposure pathway. For 7 carcinogenic PAHs, the cancer risk caused by BaP was the highest. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the parameters of exposure duration (ED) and sum of converted 7 carcinogenic PAHs concentrations in soil based on BaPeq (CSsoil) contribute most to the total uncertainty. This study provides a comprehensive risk assessment on carcinogenic PAHs in Jiaozhou Bay wetland soils, and might be useful in providing potential strategies of cancer risk prevention and controlling. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An innovative expression model of human health risk based on the quantitative analysis of soil metals sources contribution in different spatial scales.

PubMed

Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Wang, Fei; Chen, Zhuang; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

2018-09-01

Toxicity of heavy metals from industrialization poses critical concern, and analysis of sources associated with potential human health risks is of unique significance. Assessing human health risk of pollution sources (factored health risk) concurrently in the whole and the sub region can provide more instructive information to protect specific potential victims. In this research, we establish a new expression model of human health risk based on quantitative analysis of sources contribution in different spatial scales. The larger scale grids and their spatial codes are used to initially identify the level of pollution risk, the type of pollution source and the sensitive population at high risk. The smaller scale grids and their spatial codes are used to identify the contribution of various sources of pollution to each sub region (larger grid) and to assess the health risks posed by each source for each sub region. The results of case study show that, for children (sensitive populations, taking school and residential area as major region of activity), the major pollution source is from the abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALP), traffic emission and agricultural activity. The new models and results of this research present effective spatial information and useful model for quantifying the hazards of source categories and human health a t complex industrial system in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heart failure disease management programs: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Chan, David C; Heidenreich, Paul A; Weinstein, Milton C; Fonarow, Gregg C

2008-02-01

Heart failure (HF) disease management programs have shown impressive reductions in hospitalizations and mortality, but in studies limited to short time frames and high-risk patient populations. Current guidelines thus only recommend disease management targeted to high-risk patients with HF. This study applied a new technique to infer the degree to which clinical trials have targeted patients by risk based on observed rates of hospitalization and death. A Markov model was used to assess the incremental life expectancy and cost of providing disease management for high-risk to low-risk patients. Sensitivity analyses of various long-term scenarios and of reduced effectiveness in low-risk patients were also considered. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of extending coverage to all patients was $9700 per life-year gained in the base case. In aggregate, universal coverage almost quadrupled life-years saved as compared to coverage of only the highest quintile of risk. A worst case analysis with simultaneous conservative assumptions yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $110,000 per life-year gained. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 99.74% of possible incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were <$50,000 per life-year gained. Heart failure disease management programs are likely cost-effective in the long-term along the whole spectrum of patient risk. Health gains could be extended by enrolling a broader group of patients with HF in disease management.

Sensitivity Analysis of Digital I&C Modules in Protection and Safety Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalil Ur, Rahman; Zubair, M.; Heo, G.

2013-12-01

This research is performed to examine the sensitivity of digital Instrumentation and Control (I&C) components and modules used in regulating and protection systems architectures of nuclear industry. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) was performed for four configurations of RPS channel architecture. The channel unavailability has been calculated by using AIMS-PSA, which comes out 4.517E-03, 2.551E-03, 2.246E-03 and 2.7613-04 for architecture configuration I, II, III and IV respectively. It is observed that unavailability decreases by 43.5 % & 50.4% by inserting partial redundancy whereas maximum reduction of 93.9 % in unavailability happens when double redundancy is inserted in architecture. Coincidence module output failure and bi-stable output failures are identified as sensitive failures by Risk Reduction Worth (RRW) and Fussell-Vesely (FV) importance. RRW highlights that risk from coincidence processor output failure can reduced by 48.83 folds and FV indicates that BP output is sensitive by 0.9796 (on a scale of 1).

Cost-effectiveness of training rural providers to identify and treat patients at risk for fragility fractures.

PubMed

Nelson, S D; Nelson, R E; Cannon, G W; Lawrence, P; Battistone, M J; Grotzke, M; Rosenblum, Y; LaFleur, J

2014-12-01

This is a cost-effectiveness analysis of training rural providers to identify and treat osteoporosis. Results showed a slight cost savings, increase in life years, increase in treatment rates, and decrease in fracture incidence. However, the results were sensitive to small differences in effectiveness, being cost-effective in 70 % of simulations during probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of training rural providers to identify and treat veterans at risk for fragility fractures relative to referring these patients to an urban medical center for specialist care. The model evaluated the impact of training on patient life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), treatment rates, fracture incidence, and costs from the perspective of the Department of Veterans Affairs. We constructed a Markov microsimulation model to compare costs and outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of veterans seen by rural providers. Parameter estimates were derived from previously published studies, and we conducted one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses on the parameter inputs. Base-case analysis showed that training resulted in no additional costs and an extra 0.083 life years (0.054 QALYs). Our model projected that as a result of training, more patients with osteoporosis would receive treatment (81.3 vs. 12.2 %), and all patients would have a lower incidence of fractures per 1,000 patient years (hip, 1.628 vs. 1.913; clinical vertebral, 0.566 vs. 1.037) when seen by a trained provider compared to an untrained provider. Results remained consistent in one-way sensitivity analysis and in probabilistic sensitivity analyses, training rural providers was cost-effective (less than $50,000/QALY) in 70 % of the simulations. Training rural providers to identify and treat veterans at risk for fragility fractures has a potential to be cost-effective, but the results are sensitive to small differences in effectiveness. It appears that provider education alone is not enough to make a significant difference in fragility fracture rates among veterans.

Formaldehyde risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

The link between hypomania risk and creativity: The role of heightened behavioral activation system (BAS) sensitivity.

PubMed

Kim, Bin-Na; Kwon, Seok-Man

2017-06-01

The relationship between bipolar disorder (BD) and creativity is well-known; however, relatively little is known about its potential mechanism. We investigated whether heightened behavioral activation system (BAS) sensitivity may mediate such relationship. Korean young adults (N=543) completed self-report questionnaires that included the Hypomanic Personality Scale (HPS), the Behavioral Activation System(BAS) Scale, the Everyday Creativity Scale (ECS), the Positive Affect and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS), and the Altman Self-Rating Mania Scale (ASRM). Correlational, hierarchical regression and mediation analyses using bootstrap confidence intervals were conducted. As predicted, BAS sensitivity was associated with self-reported creativity as well as hypomania risk and symptoms. Even when positive affect was controlled, BAS sensitivity predicted incrementally significant variance in explaining creativity. In mediation analysis, BAS sensitivity partially mediated the relation between hypomania risk and creativity. Reliance on self-report measures in assessing creativity and usage of non-clinical sample. BAS sensitivity was related not only to mood pathology but also to creativity. As a basic affective temperament, BAS sensitivity may help explain incompatible sides of adaptation associated with BD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A retrospective analysis to identify the factors affecting infection in patients undergoing chemotherapy.

PubMed

Park, Ji Hyun; Kim, Hyeon-Young; Lee, Hanna; Yun, Eun Kyoung

2015-12-01

This study compares the performance of the logistic regression and decision tree analysis methods for assessing the risk factors for infection in cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy. The subjects were 732 cancer patients who were receiving chemotherapy at K university hospital in Seoul, Korea. The data were collected between March 2011 and February 2013 and were processed for descriptive analysis, logistic regression and decision tree analysis using the IBM SPSS Statistics 19 and Modeler 15.1 programs. The most common risk factors for infection in cancer patients receiving chemotherapy were identified as alkylating agents, vinca alkaloid and underlying diabetes mellitus. The logistic regression explained 66.7% of the variation in the data in terms of sensitivity and 88.9% in terms of specificity. The decision tree analysis accounted for 55.0% of the variation in the data in terms of sensitivity and 89.0% in terms of specificity. As for the overall classification accuracy, the logistic regression explained 88.0% and the decision tree analysis explained 87.2%. The logistic regression analysis showed a higher degree of sensitivity and classification accuracy. Therefore, logistic regression analysis is concluded to be the more effective and useful method for establishing an infection prediction model for patients undergoing chemotherapy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is the Timed Up and Go test a useful predictor of risk of falls in community dwelling older adults: a systematic review and meta- analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Timed Up and Go test (TUG) is a commonly used screening tool to assist clinicians to identify patients at risk of falling. The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to determine the overall predictive value of the TUG in community-dwelling older adults. Methods A literature search was performed to identify all studies that validated the TUG test. The methodological quality of the selected studies was assessed using the QUADAS-2 tool, a validated tool for the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies. A TUG score of ≥13.5 seconds was used to identify individuals at higher risk of falling. All included studies were combined using a bivariate random effects model to generate pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity at ≥13.5 seconds. Heterogeneity was assessed using the variance of logit transformed sensitivity and specificity. Results Twenty-five studies were included in the systematic review and 10 studies were included in meta-analysis. The TUG test was found to be more useful at ruling in rather than ruling out falls in individuals classified as high risk (>13.5 sec), with a higher pooled specificity (0.74, 95% CI 0.52-0.88) than sensitivity (0.31, 95% CI 0.13-0.57). Logistic regression analysis indicated that the TUG score is not a significant predictor of falls (OR = 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.02, p = 0.05). Conclusion The Timed Up and Go test has limited ability to predict falls in community dwelling elderly and should not be used in isolation to identify individuals at high risk of falls in this setting. PMID:24484314

A five-year model to assess the early cost-effectiveness of new diagnostic tests in the early diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Buisman, Leander R; Luime, Jolanda J; Oppe, Mark; Hazes, Johanna M W; Rutten-van Mölken, Maureen P M H

2016-06-10

There is a lack of information about the sensitivity, specificity and costs new diagnostic tests should have to improve early diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Our objective was to explore the early cost-effectiveness of various new diagnostic test strategies in the workup of patients with inflammatory arthritis (IA) at risk of having RA. A decision tree followed by a patient-level state transition model, using data from published literature, cohorts and trials, was used to evaluate diagnostic test strategies. Alternative tests were assessed as add-on to or replacement of the ACR/EULAR 2010 RA classification criteria for all patients and for intermediate-risk patients. Tests included B-cell gene expression (sensitivity 0.60, specificity 0.90, costs €150), MRI (sensitivity 0.90, specificity 0.60, costs €756), IL-6 serum level (sensitivity 0.70, specificity 0.53, costs €50) and genetic assay (sensitivity 0.40, specificity 0.85, costs €750). Patients with IA at risk of RA were followed for 5 years using a societal perspective. Guideline treatment was assumed using tight controlled treatment based on DAS28; if patients had a DAS28 >3.2 at 12 months or later patients could be eligible for starting biological drugs. The outcome was expressed in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (€2014 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained) and headroom. The B-cell test was the least expensive strategy when used as an add-on and as replacement in intermediate-risk patients, making it the dominant strategy, as it has better health outcomes and lower costs. As add-on for all patients, the B-cell test was also the most cost-effective test strategy. When using a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 per QALY gained, the IL-6 and MRI strategies were not cost-effective, except as replacement. A genetic assay was not cost-effective in any strategy. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that the B-cell test was consistently superior in all strategies. When performing univariate sensitivity analysis for intermediate-risk patients, specificity and DAS28 in the B-cell add-on strategy, and DAS28 and sensitivity in the MRI add-on strategy had the largest impact on the cost-effectiveness. This early cost-effectiveness analysis indicated that new tests to diagnose RA are most likely to be cost-effective when the tests are used as an add-on in intermediate-risk patients, and have high specificity, and the test costs should not be higher than €200-€300.

Comparison of Subjective Global Assessment and Protein Energy Wasting Score to Nutrition Evaluations Conducted by Registered Dietitian Nutritionists in Identifying Protein Energy Wasting Risk in Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Sum, Simon Siu-Man; Marcus, Andrea F; Blair, Debra; Olejnik, Laura A; Cao, Joyce; Parrott, J Scott; Peters, Emily N; Hand, Rosa K; Byham-Gray, Laura D

2017-09-01

To compare the 7-point subjective global assessment (SGA) and the protein energy wasting (PEW) score with nutrition evaluations conducted by registered dietitian nutritionists in identifying PEW risk in stage 5 chronic kidney disease patients on maintenance hemodialysis. This study is a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional study entitled "Development and Validation of a Predictive energy Equation in Hemodialysis". PEW risk identified by the 7-point SGA and the PEW score was compared against the nutrition evaluations conducted by registered dietitian nutritionists through data examination from the original study (reference standard). A total of 133 patients were included for the analysis. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV), positive and negative likelihood ratio (PLR and NLR) of both scoring tools were calculated when compared against the reference standard. The patients were predominately African American (n = 112, 84.2%), non-Hispanic (n = 101, 75.9%), and male (n = 80, 60.2%). Both the 7-point SGA (sensitivity = 78.6%, specificity = 59.1%, PPV = 33.9%, NPV = 91.2%, PLR = 1.9, and NLR = 0.4) and the PEW score (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 28.6%, PPV = 27.2%, NPV = 100%, PLR = 1.4, and NLR = 0) were more sensitive than specific in identifying PEW risk. The 7-point SGA may miss 21.4% patients having PEW and falsely identify 40.9% of patients who do not have PEW. The PEW score can identify PEW risk in all patients, but 71.4% of patients identified may not have PEW risk. Both the 7-point SGA and the PEW score could identify PEW risk. The 7-point SGA was more specific, and the PEW score was more sensitive. Both scoring tools were found to be clinically confident in identifying patients who were actually not at PEW risk. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do We Know Who Will Drop out?: A Review of the Predictors of Dropping out of High School--Precision, Sensitivity, and Specificity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowers, Alex J.; Sprott, Ryan; Taff, Sherry A.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to review the literature on the most accurate indicators of students at risk of dropping out of high school. We used Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis to compare the sensitivity and specificity of 110 dropout flags across 36 studies. Our results indicate that 1) ROC analysis provides a means to compare…

Interpersonal sensitivity and functioning impairment in youth at ultra-high risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Masillo, A; Valmaggia, L R; Saba, R; Brandizzi, M; Lindau, J F; Solfanelli, A; Curto, M; Narilli, F; Telesforo, L; Kotzalidis, G D; Di Pietro, D; D'Alema, M; Girardi, P; Fiori Nastro, P

2016-01-01

A personality trait that often elicits poor and uneasy interpersonal relationships is interpersonal sensitivity. The aim of the present study was to explore the relationship between interpersonal sensitivity and psychosocial functioning in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis as compared to help-seeking individuals who screened negative for an ultra-high risk of psychosis. A total sample of 147 adolescents and young adult who were help seeking for emerging mental health problems participated in the study. The sample was divided into two groups: 39 individuals who met criteria for an ultra-high-risk mental state (UHR), and 108 (NS). The whole sample completed the Interpersonal Sensitivity Measure (IPSM) and the Global Functioning: Social and Role Scale (GF:SS; GF:RS). Mediation analysis was used to explore whether attenuated negative symptoms mediated the relationship between interpersonal sensitivity and social functioning. Individuals with UHR state showed higher IPSM scores and lower GF:SS and GF:RS scores than NS participants. A statistically negative significant correlation between two IPSM subscales (Interpersonal Awareness and Timidity) and GF:SS was found in both groups. Our results also suggest that the relationship between the aforementioned aspects of interpersonal sensitivity and social functioning was not mediated by negative prodromal symptoms. This study suggests that some aspects of interpersonal sensitivity were associated with low level of social functioning. Assessing and treating interpersonal sensitivity may be a promising therapeutic target to improve social functioning in young help-seeking individuals.

Improving guideline sensitivity and specificity for the identification of proactive gastrostomy placement in patients with head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Brown, Teresa E; Crombie, Jane; Spurgin, Ann-Louise; Tripcony, Lee; Keller, Jacqui; Hughes, Brett G M; Dickie, Graeme; Kenny, Lizbeth Moira; Hodge, Robert A

2016-04-01

Swallowing and nutrition guidelines for patients with head and neck cancer are available for identification of proactive gastrostomy placement in patients with high nutritional risk. The purpose of this study was to investigate improvements to the validity of these guidelines. A multivariate analysis was fitted to the original dataset (n = 501) to examine the variables that may predict gastrostomy placement (eg, tumor site, treatment, sex, and age). Using these factors, the high risk category was modified and retrospectively validated in the same cohort to provide new measures of sensitivity and specificity. The following were positive predictors of gastrostomy placement: T3 (p = .01), T4 (p < .001), and chemoradiotherapy (p < .001). Laryngeal (p = .02) and skin cancer (p < .001) were negative predictors. Modification of the high risk definition improved sensitivity to 58% and maintained specificity at 92%. Minor modifications to the high risk definition in the guidelines have improved the guideline sensitivity for future use. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 38: E1163-E1171, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk factors associated with sensitization to hydroxyisohexyl 3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde.

PubMed

Uter, Wolfgang; Geier, Johannes; Schnuch, Axel; Gefeller, Olaf

2013-08-01

Hydroxyisohexyl 3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde (HICC) is a synthetic fragrance chemical and an important contact allergen, at least in Europe. Despite this importance, little is known about risk factors associated with this allergen. To examine factors from the history and clinical presentation of patch tested patients associated with HICC sensitization. Contact allergy surveillance data of 95 637 patients collected by the Information Network of Departments of Dermatology (IVDK, www.ivkd.org) in 2002-2011 were analysed. Point and interval estimates of the relative risk were derived from multifactorial logistic regression modelling. The overall prevalence of HICC sensitization was 2.24%. The strongest risk factors were polysensitization and dermatitis of the axillae, followed by dermatitis at other sites. No consistent and significant time trend was observed in this analysis. As compared with the youngest patients, the odds of HICC sensitization increased approximately three-fold in the 52-67-year age group, and strongly declined with further increasing age. The risk pattern with regard to age and affected anatomical site differed from that observed with other fragrance screening allergens. Cosmetic exposure, as broadly defined here, was a stronger and more prevalent individual risk factor than occupational exposure. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Proton therapy versus intensity modulated x-ray therapy in the treatment of prostate cancer: Estimating secondary cancer risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fontenot, Jonas David

External beam radiation therapy is used to treat nearly half of the more than 200,000 new cases of prostate cancer diagnosed in the United States each year. During a radiation therapy treatment, healthy tissues in the path of the therapeutic beam are exposed to high doses. In addition, the whole body is exposed to a low-dose bath of unwanted scatter radiation from the pelvis and leakage radiation from the treatment unit. As a result, survivors of radiation therapy for prostate cancer face an elevated risk of developing a radiogenic second cancer. Recently, proton therapy has been shown to reduce the dose delivered by the therapeutic beam to normal tissues during treatment compared to intensity modulated x-ray therapy (IMXT, the current standard of care). However, the magnitude of stray radiation doses from proton therapy, and their impact on this incidence of radiogenic second cancers, was not known. The risk of a radiogenic second cancer following proton therapy for prostate cancer relative to IMXT was determined for 3 patients of large, median, and small anatomical stature. Doses delivered to healthy tissues from the therapeutic beam were obtained from treatment planning system calculations. Stray doses from IMXT were taken from the literature, while stray doses from proton therapy were simulated using a Monte Carlo model of a passive scattering treatment unit and an anthropomorphic phantom. Baseline risk models were taken from the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to characterize the uncertainty of risk calculations to uncertainties in the risk model, the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons for carcinogenesis, and inter-patient anatomical variations. The risk projections revealed that proton therapy carries a lower risk for radiogenic second cancer incidence following prostate irradiation compared to IMXT. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the results of the risk analysis depended only weakly on uncertainties in the risk model and inter-patient variations. Second cancer risks were sensitive to changes in the RBE of neutrons. However, the findings of the study were qualitatively consistent for all patient sizes and risk models considered, and for all neutron RBE values less than 100.

The diagnostic value of narrow-band imaging for early and invasive lung cancer: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhu, Juanjuan; Li, Wei; Zhou, Jihong; Chen, Yuqing; Zhao, Chenling; Zhang, Ting; Peng, Wenjia; Wang, Xiaojing

2017-07-01

This study aimed to compare the ability of narrow-band imaging to detect early and invasive lung cancer with that of conventional pathological analysis and white-light bronchoscopy. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Sinomed, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases for relevant studies. Meta-disc software was used to perform data analysis, meta-regression analysis, sensitivity analysis, and heterogeneity testing, and STATA software was used to determine if publication bias was present, as well as to calculate the relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs those of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer. A random-effects model was used to assess the diagnostic efficacy of the above modalities in cases in which a high degree of between-study heterogeneity was noted with respect to their diagnostic efficacies. The database search identified six studies including 578 patients. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging were 86% (95% confidence interval: 83-88%) and 81% (95% confidence interval: 77-84%), respectively, and the pooled sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy were 70% (95% confidence interval: 66-74%) and 66% (95% confidence interval: 62-70%), respectively. The pooled relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs the sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer were 1.33 (95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.67) and 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 0.84-1.42), respectively, and sensitivity analysis showed that narrow-band imaging exhibited good diagnostic efficacy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer and that the results of the study were stable. Narrow-band imaging was superior to white light bronchoscopy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer; however, the specificities of the two modalities did not differ significantly.

The Relative Importance of the Vadose Zone in Multimedia Risk Assessment Modeling Applied at a National Scale: An Analysis of Benzene Using 3MRA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babendreier, J. E.

2002-05-01

Evaluating uncertainty and parameter sensitivity in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-media constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. The challenge of examining ever more complex, integrated, higher-order models is a formidable one, particularly in regulatory settings applied on a national scale. Quantitative assessment of uncertainty and sensitivity within integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a systematic, comparative approach coupled with sufficient computational power. The Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment Model (3MRA) is an important code being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in site-scale risk assessment (e.g. hazardous waste management facilities). The model currently entails over 700 variables, 185 of which are explicitly stochastic. The 3MRA can start with a chemical concentration in a waste management unit (WMU). It estimates the release and transport of the chemical throughout the environment, and predicts associated exposure and risk. The 3MRA simulates multimedia (air, water, soil, sediments), pollutant fate and transport, multipathway exposure routes (food ingestion, water ingestion, soil ingestion, air inhalation, etc.), multireceptor exposures (resident, gardener, farmer, fisher, ecological habitats and populations), and resulting risk (human cancer and non-cancer effects, ecological population and community effects). The 3MRA collates the output for an overall national risk assessment, offering a probabilistic strategy as a basis for regulatory decisions. To facilitate model execution of 3MRA for purposes of conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, a PC-based supercomputer cluster was constructed. Design of SuperMUSE, a 125 GHz Windows-based Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation is described, along with the conceptual layout of an accompanying java-based paralleling software toolset. Preliminary work is also reported for a scenario involving Benzene disposal that describes the relative importance of the vadose zone in driving risk levels for ecological receptors and human health. Incorporating landfills, waste piles, aerated tanks, surface impoundments, and land application units, the site-based data used in the analysis included 201 national facilities representing 419 site-WMU combinations.

Global sensitivity analysis of water age and temperature for informing salmonid disease management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javaheri, Amir; Babbar-Sebens, Meghna; Alexander, Julie; Bartholomew, Jerri; Hallett, Sascha

2018-06-01

Many rivers in the Pacific Northwest region of North America are anthropogenically manipulated via dam operations, leading to system-wide impacts on hydrodynamic conditions and aquatic communities. Understanding how dam operations alter abiotic and biotic variables is important for designing management actions. For example, in the Klamath River, dam outflows could be manipulated to alter water age and temperature to reduce risk of parasite infections in salmon by diluting or altering viability of parasite spores. However, sensitivity of water age and temperature to the riverine conditions such as bathymetry can affect outcomes from dam operations. To examine this issue in detail, we conducted a global sensitivity analysis of water age and temperature to a comprehensive set of hydraulics and meteorological parameters in the Klamath River, California, where management of salmonid disease is a high priority. We applied an analysis technique, which combined Latin-hypercube and one-at-a-time sampling methods, and included simulation runs with the hydrodynamic numerical model of the Lower Klamath. We found that flow rate and bottom roughness were the two most important parameters that influence water age. Water temperature was more sensitive to inflow temperature, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, flow rate, and wet bulb temperature respectively. Our results are relevant for managers because they provide a framework for predicting how water within 'high infection risk' sections of the river will respond to dam water (low infection risk) input. Moreover, these data will be useful for prioritizing the use of water age (dilution) versus temperature (spore viability) under certain contexts when considering flow manipulation as a method to reduce risk of infection and disease in Klamath River salmon.

Ignoring correlation in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment: what is the risk?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groen, E.A., E-mail: Evelyne.Groen@gmail.com; Heijungs, R.; Leiden University, Einsteinweg 2, Leiden 2333 CC

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is an established tool to quantify the environmental impact of a product. A good assessment of uncertainty is important for making well-informed decisions in comparative LCA, as well as for correctly prioritising data collection efforts. Under- or overestimation of output uncertainty (e.g. output variance) will lead to incorrect decisions in such matters. The presence of correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation, can increase or decrease the the output variance. However, most LCA studies that include uncertainty analysis, ignore correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation, which may lead to incorrect conclusions. Two approaches to include correlationsmore » between input parameters during uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analysis were studied: an analytical approach and a sampling approach. The use of both approaches is illustrated for an artificial case study of electricity production. Results demonstrate that both approaches yield approximately the same output variance and sensitivity indices for this specific case study. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the analytical approach can be used to quantify the risk of ignoring correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation in LCA. We demonstrate that: (1) we can predict if including correlations among input parameters in uncertainty propagation will increase or decrease output variance; (2) we can quantify the risk of ignoring correlations on the output variance and the global sensitivity indices. Moreover, this procedure requires only little data. - Highlights: • Ignoring correlation leads to under- or overestimation of the output variance. • We demonstrated that the risk of ignoring correlation can be quantified. • The procedure proposed is generally applicable in life cycle assessment. • In some cases, ignoring correlation has a minimal effect on decision-making tools.« less

Risk to researchers in qualitative research on sensitive topics: issues and strategies.

PubMed

Dickson-Swift, Virginia; James, Erica L; Kippen, Sandra; Liamputtong, Pranee

2008-01-01

Traditionally, risk assessments in research have been limited to examining the risks to the research participants. Although doing so is appropriate and important, there is growing recognition that undertaking research can pose risks to researchers as well. A grounded theory study involving a range of researchers who had undertaken qualitative health research on a sensitive topic was completed. Analysis of the in-depth, face-to-face unstructured individual interviews with 30 Australian public health researchers provided evidence that researchers do confront a number of physical and emotional risks when undertaking research. Training, preparation, and supervision must be taken into account so that the risk to researchers can be minimized. Researchers need to consider occupational health and safety issues in designing research projects that deal with physical and emotional risks. Recommendations for professional supervision, policy development, and minimum training standards for researchers are provided.

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R; Kazandjian, D; Blumenthal, G; Pazdur, R; Woodcock, J

2016-12-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analyses. There is much interest in quantifying regulatory approaches to benefit and risk. In this work the use of a quantitative benefit-risk analysis was applied to regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Benefits and risks associated with 20 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decisions associated with a set of candidate treatments submitted between 2003 and 2015 were analyzed. For benefit analysis, the median overall survival (OS) was used where available. When not available, OS was estimated based on overall response rate (ORR) or progression-free survival (PFS). Risks were analyzed based on magnitude (or severity) of harm and likelihood of occurrence. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was explored to demonstrate analysis of systematic uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes considered were found to be consistent with the benefit-risk logic. © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Rapid Rule-out of Acute Myocardial Infarction With a Single High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T Measurement Below the Limit of Detection: A Collaborative Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Pickering, John W; Than, Martin P; Cullen, Louise; Aldous, Sally; Ter Avest, Ewoud; Body, Richard; Carlton, Edward W; Collinson, Paul; Dupuy, Anne Marie; Ekelund, Ulf; Eggers, Kai M; Florkowski, Christopher M; Freund, Yonathan; George, Peter; Goodacre, Steve; Greenslade, Jaimi H; Jaffe, Allan S; Lord, Sarah J; Mokhtari, Arash; Mueller, Christian; Munro, Andrew; Mustapha, Sebbane; Parsonage, William; Peacock, W Frank; Pemberton, Christopher; Richards, A Mark; Sanchis, Juan; Staub, Lukas P; Troughton, Richard; Twerenbold, Raphael; Wildi, Karin; Young, Joanna

2017-05-16

High-sensitivity assays for cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) are sometimes used to rapidly rule out acute myocardial infarction (AMI). To estimate the ability of a single hs-cTnT concentration below the limit of detection (<0.005 µg/L) and a nonischemic electrocardiogram (ECG) to rule out AMI in adults presenting to the emergency department (ED) with chest pain. EMBASE and MEDLINE without language restrictions (1 January 2008 to 14 December 2016). Cohort studies involving adults presenting to the ED with possible acute coronary syndrome in whom an ECG and hs-cTnT measurements were obtained and AMI outcomes adjudicated during initial hospitalization. Investigators of studies provided data on the number of low-risk patients (no new ischemia on ECG and hs-cTnT measurements <0.005 µg/L) and the number who had AMI during hospitalization (primary outcome) or a major adverse cardiac event (MACE) or death within 30 days (secondary outcomes), by risk classification (low or not low risk). Two independent epidemiologists rated risk of bias of studies. Of 9241 patients in 11 cohort studies, 2825 (30.6%) were classified as low risk. Fourteen (0.5%) low-risk patients had AMI. Sensitivity of the risk classification for AMI ranged from 87.5% to 100% in individual studies. Pooled estimated sensitivity was 98.7% (95% CI, 96.6% to 99.5%). Sensitivity for 30-day MACEs ranged from 87.9% to 100%; pooled sensitivity was 98.0% (CI, 94.7% to 99.3%). No low-risk patients died. Few studies, variation in timing and methods of reference standard troponin tests, and heterogeneity of risk and prevalence of AMI across studies. A single hs-cTnT concentration below the limit of detection in combination with a nonischemic ECG may successfully rule out AMI in patients presenting to EDs with possible emergency acute coronary syndrome. Emergency Care Foundation.

Preoperative Staging With 11C-Choline PET/CT Is Adequately Accurate in Patients With Very High-Risk Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Schiavina, Riccardo; Bianchi, Lorenzo; Mineo Bianchi, Federico; Borghesi, Marco; Pultrone, Cristian Vincenzo; Dababneh, Hussam; Castellucci, Paolo; Ceci, Francesco; Nanni, Cristina; Gaudiano, Caterina; Fiorentino, Michelangelo; Porreca, Angelo; Chessa, Francesco; Minervini, Andrea; Fanti, Stefano; Brunocilla, Eugenio

2018-05-30

To evaluate the accuracy of 11 C-choline positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) for nodal staging of prostate cancer (PCa) in different populations of high-risk patients. We evaluated 262 individuals with intermediate- or high-risk PCa submitted to radical prostatectomy and extended pelvic lymph node dissection. Within men with high-risk disease, we identified a subgroup of individuals harboring very high-risk (VHR, n = 28) disease: clinical stage ≥ T2c and more than 5 cores with Gleason score 8-10; primary biopsy Gleason score of 5; 3 high-risk features; or prostate-specific antigen ≥ 30 ng/mL. The diagnostic accuracy of PET/CT and contrast-enhanced CT (CECT) was assessed after stratifying patients according to risk group classification on a patient- and anatomic region-based analysis. On patient-based analysis, considering high-risk patients (n = 155), 11 C-choline PET/CT versus CECT had sensitivity and specificity of 50% and 76% versus 21% and 92%, respectively. Considering VHR men as separate subgroups (n = 28), 11 C-choline PET/CT versus CECT had sensitivity and specificity of 71% and 93% versus 25% and 79%, respectively. Accordingly, in the VHR category, the area under the curve of 11 C-choline PET/CT versus CECT was 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-1.0) versus 0.69 (95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.86), respectively. On anatomic region-based analysis, considering the VHR group, 11 C-choline PET/CT versus CECT had sensitivity and specificity of 70.6% and 95.5% versus 35.3% and 98.5%, respectively. Patients with VHR characteristics could represent the ideal candidate to undergo disease staging with PET/CT before surgery with the highest cost efficacy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, Zhibin (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Spatial analysis and health risk assessment of heavy metals concentration in drinking water resources.

PubMed

Fallahzadeh, Reza Ali; Ghaneian, Mohammad Taghi; Miri, Mohammad; Dashti, Mohamad Mehdi

2017-11-01

The heavy metals available in drinking water can be considered as a threat to human health. Oncogenic risk of such metals is proven in several studies. Present study aimed to investigate concentration of the heavy metals including As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn in 39 water supply wells and 5 water reservoirs within the cities Ardakan, Meibod, Abarkouh, Bafgh, and Bahabad. The spatial distribution of the concentration was carried out by the software ArcGIS. Such simulations as non-carcinogenic hazard and lifetime cancer risk were conducted for lead and nickel using Monte Carlo technique. The sensitivity analysis was carried out to find the most important and effective parameters on risk assessment. The results indicated that concentration of all metals in 39 wells (except iron in 3 cases) reached the levels mentioned in EPA, World Health Organization, and Pollution Control Department standards. Based on the spatial distribution results at all studied regions, the highest concentrations of metals were derived, respectively, for iron and zinc. Calculated HQ values for non-carcinogenic hazard indicated a reasonable risk. Average lifetime cancer risks for the lead in Ardakan and nickel in Meibod and Bahabad were shown to be 1.09 × 10 -3 , 1.67 × 10 -1 , and 2 × 10 -1 , respectively, demonstrating high carcinogenic risk compared to similar standards and studies. The sensitivity analysis suggests high impact of concentration and BW in carcinogenic risk.

A Pilot Study on Developing a Standardized and Sensitive School Violence Risk Assessment with Manual Annotation.

PubMed

Barzman, Drew H; Ni, Yizhao; Griffey, Marcus; Patel, Bianca; Warren, Ashaki; Latessa, Edward; Sorter, Michael

2017-09-01

School violence has increased over the past decade and innovative, sensitive, and standardized approaches to assess school violence risk are needed. In our current feasibility study, we initialized a standardized, sensitive, and rapid school violence risk approach with manual annotation. Manual annotation is the process of analyzing a student's transcribed interview to extract relevant information (e.g., key words) to school violence risk levels that are associated with students' behaviors, attitudes, feelings, use of technology (social media and video games), and other activities. In this feasibility study, we first implemented school violence risk assessments to evaluate risk levels by interviewing the student and parent separately at the school or the hospital to complete our novel school safety scales. We completed 25 risk assessments, resulting in 25 transcribed interviews of 12-18 year olds from 15 schools in Ohio and Kentucky. We then analyzed structured professional judgments, language, and patterns associated with school violence risk levels by using manual annotation and statistical methodology. To analyze the student interviews, we initiated the development of an annotation guideline to extract key information that is associated with students' behaviors, attitudes, feelings, use of technology and other activities. Statistical analysis was applied to associate the significant categories with students' risk levels to identify key factors which will help with developing action steps to reduce risk. In a future study, we plan to recruit more subjects in order to fully develop the manual annotation which will result in a more standardized and sensitive approach to school violence assessments.

Retracted: Association of ACE I/D gene polymorphism with T2DN susceptibility and the risk of T2DM developing into T2DN in a Caucasian population.

PubMed

Liu, Guohui; Zhou, Tian-Biao; Jiang, Zongpei; Zheng, Dongwen

2015-03-01

The association of the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) insertion/deletion (I/D) gene polymorphism with type-2 diabetic nephropathy (T2DN) susceptibility and the risk of type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) developing into T2DN in Caucasian populations is still controversial. A meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the association of ACE I/D gene polymorphism with T2DN susceptibility and the risk of T2DM developing into T2DN in Caucasian populations. A predefined literature search and selection of eligible relevant studies were performed to collect data from electronic databases. Sixteen articles were identified for the analysis of the association of ACE I/D gene polymorphism with T2DN susceptibility and the risk of T2DM developing into T2DN in Caucasian populations. ACE I/D gene polymorphism was not associated with T2DN susceptibility and the risk of patients with T2DM developing T2DN in Caucasian populations. Sensitivity analysis according to sample size of case (<100 vs. ≥100) was also performed, and the results were similar to the non-sensitivity analysis. ACE I/D gene polymorphism was not associated with T2DN susceptibility and the risk of patients with T2DM developing T2DN in Caucasian populations. However, more studies should be performed in the future. © The Author(s) 2014.

Antiviral treatment of Bell's palsy based on baseline severity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Turgeon, Ricky D; Wilby, Kyle J; Ensom, Mary H H

2015-06-01

We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis to evaluate the efficacy of antiviral agents on complete recovery of Bell's palsy. We searched CENTRAL, Embase, MEDLINE, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, and sources of unpublished literature to November 1, 2014. Primary and secondary outcomes were complete and satisfactory recovery, respectively. To evaluate statistical heterogeneity, we performed subgroup analysis of baseline severity of Bell's palsy and between-study sensitivity analyses based on risk of allocation and detection bias. The 10 included randomized controlled trials (2419 patients; 807 with severe Bell's palsy at onset) had variable risk of bias, with 9 trials having a high risk of bias in at least 1 domain. Complete recovery was not statistically significantly greater with antiviral use versus no antiviral use in the random-effects meta-analysis of 6 trials (relative risk, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.16; I(2) = 65%). Conversely, random-effects meta-analysis of 9 trials showed a statistically significant difference in satisfactory recovery (relative risk, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.18; I(2) = 63%). Response to antiviral agents did not differ visually or statistically between patients with severe symptoms at baseline and those with milder disease (test for interaction, P = .11). Sensitivity analyses did not show a clear effect of bias on outcomes. Antiviral agents are not efficacious in increasing the proportion of patients with Bell's palsy who achieved complete recovery, regardless of baseline symptom severity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Living near nuclear power plants and thyroid cancer risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Jaeyoung; Bang, Yejin; Lee, Won Jin

2016-02-01

There has been public concern regarding the safety of residing near nuclear power plants, and the extent of risk for thyroid cancer among adults living near nuclear power plants has not been fully explored. In the present study, a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies was conducted to investigate the association between living near nuclear power plants and the risk of thyroid cancer. A comprehensive literature search was performed on studies published up to March 2015 on the association between nuclear power plants and thyroid cancer risk. The summary standardized incidence ratio (SIR), standardized mortality ratio (SMR), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effect model of meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses were performed by study quality. Thirteen studies were included in the meta-analysis, covering 36 nuclear power stations in 10 countries. Overall, summary estimates showed no significant increased thyroid cancer incidence or mortality among residents living near nuclear power plants (summary SIR=0.98; 95% CI 0.87-1.11, summary SMR=0.80; 95% CI 0.62-1.04). The pooled estimates did not reveal different patterns of risk by gender, exposure definition, or reference population. However, sensitivity analysis by exposure definition showed that living less than 20 km from nuclear power plants was associated with a significant increase in the risk of thyroid cancer in well-designed studies (summary OR=1.75; 95% CI 1.17-2.64). Our study does not support an association between living near nuclear power plants and risk of thyroid cancer but does support a need for well-designed future studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Diagnostic Accuracy of T-SPOT.TB for Active Tuberculosis in Clinical Practice.

PubMed

Zhang, Lifan; Shi, Xiaochun; Zhang, Yueqiu; Zhang, Yao; Huo, Feifei; Zhou, Baotong; Deng, Guohua; Liu, Xiaoqing

2017-08-10

T-SPOT.TB didn't perform a perfect diagnosis for active tuberculosis (ATB), and some factors may influence the results. We did this study to evaluate possible factors associated with the sensitivity and specificity of T-SPOT.TB, and the diagnostic parameters under varied conditions. Patients with suspected ATB were enrolled prospectively. Influencing factors of the sensitivity and specificity of T-SPOT.TB were evaluated using logistic regression models. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values (PV), and likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated with consideration of relevant factors. Of the 865 participants, 205 (23.7%) had ATB, including 58 (28.3%) microbiologically confirmed TB and 147 (71.7%) clinically diagnosed TB. 615 (71.7%) were non-TB. 45 (5.2%) cases were clinically indeterminate and excluded from the final analysis. In multivariate analysis, serous effusion was the only independent risk factor related to lower sensitivity (OR = 0.39, 95% CI: 0.18-0.81) among patients with ATB. Among non-TB patients, age, TB history, immunosuppressive agents/glucocorticoid treatment and lymphocyte count were the independent risk factors related to specificity of T-SPOT.TB. Sensitivity, specificity, PV+, PV-, LR+ and LR- of T-SPOT.TB for diagnosis of ATB were 78.5%, 74.1%, 50.3%, 91.2%, 3.0 and 0.3, respectively. This study suggests that influencing factors of sensitivity and specificity of T-SPOT.TB should be considered for interpretation of T-SPOT.TB results.

The risk of lung cancer among cooking adults: a meta-analysis of 23 observational studies.

PubMed

Jia, Peng-Li; Zhang, Chao; Yu, Jia-Jie; Xu, Chang; Tang, Li; Sun, Xin

2018-02-01

Cooking has been regarded as a potential risk factor for lung cancer. We aim to investigate the evidence of cooking oil fume and risk of lung cancer. Medline and Embase were searched for eligible studies. We conducted a meta-analysis to summarize the evidences of case-control or cohort studies, with subgroup analysis for the potential discrepancy. Sensitivity analysis was employed to test the robustness. We included 23 observational studies, involving 9411 lung cancer cases. Our meta-analysis found that, for cooking female, the pooled OR of cooking oil fume exposure was 1.98 (95% CI 1.54, 2.54, I 2  = 79%, n = 15) among non-smoking population and 2.00 (95% CI 1.46, 2.74, I 2  = 75%, n = 10) among partly smoking population. For cooking males, the pooled OR of lung cancer was 1.15 (95% CI 0.71, 1.87; I 2  = 80%, n = 4). When sub grouped by ventilation condition, the pooled OR for poor ventilation was 1.20 (95% CI 1.10, 1.31, I 2  = 2%) compared to good ventilation. For different cooking methods, our results suggested that stir frying (OR = 1.89, 95% CI 1.23, 2.90; I 2  = 66%) was associated with increased risk of lung cancer while not for deep frying (OR = 1.41, 95% CI 0.87, 2.29; I 2  = 5%). Sensitivity analysis suggested our results were stable. Cooking oil fume is likely to be a risk factor for lung cancer for female, regardless of smoking status. Poor ventilation may increase the risk of lung cancer. Cooking methods may have different effect on lung cancer that deep frying may be healthier than stir frying.

Smoking increases the risk of diabetic foot amputation: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Min; Zhang, Wei; Yan, Zhaoli; Yuan, Xiangzhen

2018-02-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that smoking is associated with diabetic foot amputation. However, the currently available results are inconsistent and controversial. Therefore, the present study performed a meta-analysis to systematically review the association between smoking and diabetic foot amputation and to investigate the risk factors of diabetic foot amputation. Public databases, including PubMed and Embase, were searched prior to 29th February 2016. The heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochran's Q statistic and the I 2 statistic, and odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated and pooled appropriately. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the stability of the results. In addition, Egger's test was applied to assess any potential publication bias. Based on the research, a total of eight studies, including five cohort studies and three case control studies were included. The data indicated that smoking significantly increased the risk of diabetic foot amputation (OR=1.65; 95% CI, 1.09-2.50; P<0.0001) compared with non-smoking. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the pooled analysis did not vary substantially following the exclusion of any one study. Additionally, there was no evidence of publication bias (Egger's test, t=0.1378; P=0.8958). Furthermore, no significant difference was observed between the minor and major amputation groups in patients who smoked (OR=0.79; 95% CI, 0.24-2.58). The results of the present meta-analysis suggested that smoking is a notable risk factor for diabetic foot amputation. Smoking cessation appears to reduce the risk of diabetic foot amputation.

Propensity Score Analysis Comparing Videothoracoscopic Lobectomy With Thoracotomy: A French Nationwide Study.

PubMed

Pagès, Pierre-Benoit; Delpy, Jean-Philippe; Orsini, Bastien; Gossot, Dominique; Baste, Jean-Marc; Thomas, Pascal; Dahan, Marcel; Bernard, Alain

2016-04-01

Video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy has recently become the recommended approach for stage I non-small cell lung cancer. However, these guidelines are not based on any large randomized control trial. Our study used propensity scores and a sensitivity analysis to compare VATS lobectomy with open thoracotomy. From 2005 to 2012, 24,811 patients (95.1%) were operated on by open thoracotomy and 1,278 (4.9%) by VATS. The end points were 30-day postoperative death, postoperative complications, hospital stay, overall survival, and disease-free survival. Two propensity scores analyses were performed: matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting, and one sensitivity analysis to unmask potential hidden bias. A subgroup analysis was performed to compare "high-risk" with "low-risk" patients. Results are reported by odds ratios or hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. Postoperative death was not significantly reduced by VATS whatever the analysis. Concerning postoperative complications, VATS significantly decreased the occurrence of atelectasis and pneumopathy with both analysis methods, but there were no differences in the occurrence of other postoperative complications. VATS did not provide a benefit for high-risk patients. The VATS approach decreased the hospital length of stay from 2.4 days (95% confidence interval, -1.7 to -3 days) to -4.68 days (95% confidence interval, -8.5 to 0.9 days). Overall survival and disease-free survival were not influenced by the surgical approach. The sensitivity analysis showed potential biases. The results must be interpreted carefully because of the differences observed according to the propensity scores method used. A multicenter randomized controlled trial is necessary to limit the biases. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

RSV-hRV co-infection is a risk factor for recurrent bronchial obstruction and early sensitization 3 years after bronchiolitis.

PubMed

Amat, Flore; Plantard, Chloé; Mulliez, Aurélien; Petit, Isabelle; Rochette, Emmanuelle; Verdan, Matthieu; Henquell, Cécile; Labbé, Guillaume; Heraud, Marie Christine; Evrard, Bertrand; Labbé, André

2018-05-01

To assess risk factors of recurrent bronchial obstruction and allergic sensitization 3 years after an episode of acute bronchiolitis, whether after ambulatory care treatment or hospitalization. A monocentric prospective longitudinal study including infants aged under 1 year with acute bronchiolitis was performed, with clinical (severity score), biological (serum Krebs von den Lungen 6 antigen), and viral (14 virus by naso-pharyngeal suction detection) assessments. Follow-up included a quaterly telephone interview, and a final clinical examination at 3 years. Biological markers of atopy were also measured in peripheral blood, including specific IgEs towards aero- and food allergens. Complete data were available for 154 children. 46.8% of them had recurrent wheezing (RW). No difference was found according to initial severity, care at home or in the hospital, respiratory virus involved, or existence of co-infection. A familial history of atopy was identified as a risk factor for recurrent bronchial obstruction (60% for RW infants versus 39%, P = 0.02), as living in an apartment (35% versus 15%, P = 0.002). 18.6% of the infants were sensitized, with 48.1% of them sensitized to aeroallergens and 81.5% to food allergens. Multivariate analysis confirmed that a familial history of atopy (P = 0.02) and initial co-infection RSV-hRV (P = 0.02) were correlated with the risk of sensitization to aeroallergens at 3 years. Familial history of atopy and RSV-hRV co-infection are risk factors for recurrent bronchial obstruction and sensitization. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Conceptual Launch Vehicle and Spacecraft Design for Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motiwala, Samira A.; Mathias, Donovan L.; Mattenberger, Christopher J.

2014-01-01

One of the most challenging aspects of developing human space launch and exploration systems is minimizing and mitigating the many potential risk factors to ensure the safest possible design while also meeting the required cost, weight, and performance criteria. In order to accomplish this, effective risk analyses and trade studies are needed to identify key risk drivers, dependencies, and sensitivities as the design evolves. The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) develops advanced risk analysis approaches, models, and tools to provide such meaningful risk and reliability data throughout vehicle development. The goal of the project presented in this memorandum is to design a generic launch 7 vehicle and spacecraft architecture that can be used to develop and demonstrate these new risk analysis techniques without relying on other proprietary or sensitive vehicle designs. To accomplish this, initial spacecraft and launch vehicle (LV) designs were established using historical sizing relationships for a mission delivering four crewmembers and equipment to the International Space Station (ISS). Mass-estimating relationships (MERs) were used to size the crew capsule and launch vehicle, and a combination of optimization techniques and iterative design processes were employed to determine a possible two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) launch trajectory into a 350-kilometer orbit. Primary subsystems were also designed for the crewed capsule architecture, based on a 24-hour on-orbit mission with a 7-day contingency. Safety analysis was also performed to identify major risks to crew survivability and assess the system's overall reliability. These procedures and analyses validate that the architecture's basic design and performance are reasonable to be used for risk trade studies. While the vehicle designs presented are not intended to represent a viable architecture, they will provide a valuable initial platform for developing and demonstrating innovative risk assessment capabilities.

Reduced risk of peanut sensitization following exposure through breast-feeding and early peanut introduction.

PubMed

Pitt, Tracy J; Becker, Allan B; Chan-Yeung, Moira; Chan, Edmond S; Watson, Wade T A; Chooniedass, Rishma; Azad, Meghan B

2018-02-01

Recent trials have shown that avoiding peanuts during infancy increases the risk of peanut allergy; however, these studies did not address maternal peanut consumption. We sought to investigate the relationship between maternal peanut consumption while breast-feeding, timing of direct peanut introduction, and peanut sensitization at age 7 years. Secondary analysis of a nested cohort within the 1995 Canadian Asthma Primary Prevention Study intervention study was performed. Breast-feeding and maternal and infant peanut consumption were captured by repeated questionnaires during infancy. Skin prick testing for peanut sensitization was performed at age 7 years. Overall, 58.2% of mothers consumed peanuts while breast-feeding and 22.5% directly introduced peanuts to their infant by 12 months. At 7 years, 9.4% of children were sensitized to peanuts. The lowest incidence (1.7%) was observed among children whose mothers consumed peanuts while breast-feeding and directly introduced peanuts before 12 months. Incidence was significantly higher (P < .05) if mothers consumed peanuts while breast-feeding but delayed introducing peanuts to their infant beyond 12 months (15.1%), or if mothers avoided peanuts themselves but directly introduced peanuts by 12 months (17.6%). Interaction analyses controlling for study group and maternal atopy confirmed that maternal peanut consumption while breast-feeding and infant peanut consumption by 12 months were protective in combination, whereas either exposure in isolation was associated with an increased risk of sensitization (P interaction = .003). In this secondary analysis, maternal peanut consumption while breast-feeding paired with direct introduction of peanuts in the first year of life was associated with the lowest risk of peanut sensitization, compared with all other combinations of maternal and infant peanut consumption. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and Sensitivity Analysis of a Frost Risk model based primarily on freely distributed Earth Observation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louka, Panagiota; Petropoulos, George; Papanikolaou, Ioannis

2015-04-01

The ability to map the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme climatic conditions, such as frost, is a significant tool in successful agricultural management and decision making. Nowadays, with the development of Earth Observation (EO) technology, it is possible to obtain accurately, timely and in a cost-effective way information on the spatiotemporal distribution of frost conditions, particularly over large and otherwise inaccessible areas. The present study aimed at developing and evaluating a frost risk prediction model, exploiting primarily EO data from MODIS and ASTER sensors and ancillary ground observation data. For the evaluation of our model, a region in north-western Greece was selected as test site and a detailed sensitivity analysis was implemented. The agreement between the model predictions and the observed (remotely sensed) frost frequency obtained by MODIS sensor was evaluated thoroughly. Also, detailed comparisons of the model predictions were performed against reference frost ground observations acquired from the Greek Agricultural Insurance Organization (ELGA) over a period of 10-years (2000-2010). Overall, results evidenced the ability of the model to produce reasonably well the frost conditions, following largely explainable patterns in respect to the study site and local weather conditions characteristics. Implementation of our proposed frost risk model is based primarily on satellite imagery analysis provided nowadays globally at no cost. It is also straightforward and computationally inexpensive, requiring much less effort in comparison for example to field surveying. Finally, the method is adjustable to be potentially integrated with other high resolution data available from both commercial and non-commercial vendors. Keywords: Sensitivity analysis, frost risk mapping, GIS, remote sensing, MODIS, Greece

Bead-based competitive fluorescence immunoassay for sensitive and rapid diagnosis of cyanotoxin risk in drinking water.

PubMed

Yu, Hye-Weon; Jang, Am; Kim, Lan Hee; Kim, Sung-Jo; Kim, In S

2011-09-15

Due to the increased occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms and their toxins in drinking water sources, effective management based on a sensitive and rapid analytical method is in high demand for security of safe water sources and environmental human health. Here, a competitive fluorescence immunoassay of microcystin-LR (MCYST-LR) is developed in an attempt to improve the sensitivity, analysis time, and ease-of-manipulation of analysis. To serve this aim, a bead-based suspension assay was introduced based on two major sensing elements: an antibody-conjugated quantum dot (QD) detection probe and an antigen-immobilized magnetic bead (MB) competitor. The assay was composed of three steps: the competitive immunological reaction of QD detection probes against analytes and MB competitors, magnetic separation and washing, and the optical signal generation of QDs. The fluorescence intensity was found to be inversely proportional to the MCYST-LR concentration. Under optimized conditions, the proposed assay performed well for the identification and quantitative analysis of MCYST-LR (within 30 min in the range of 0.42-25 μg/L, with a limit of detection of 0.03 μg/L). It is thus expected that this enhanced assay can contribute both to the sensitive and rapid diagnosis of cyanotoxin risk in drinking water and effective management procedures.

Impact of ionic current variability on human ventricular cellular electrophysiology.

PubMed

Romero, Lucía; Pueyo, Esther; Fink, Martin; Rodríguez, Blanca

2009-10-01

Abnormalities in repolarization and its rate dependence are known to be related to increased proarrhythmic risk. A number of repolarization-related electrophysiological properties are commonly used as preclinical biomarkers of arrhythmic risk. However, the variability and complexity of repolarization mechanisms make the use of cellular biomarkers to predict arrhythmic risk preclinically challenging. Our goal is to investigate the role of ionic current properties and their variability in modulating cellular biomarkers of arrhythmic risk to improve risk stratification and identification in humans. A systematic investigation into the sensitivity of the main preclinical biomarkers of arrhythmic risk to changes in ionic current conductances and kinetics was performed using computer simulations. Four stimulation protocols were applied to the ten Tusscher and Panfilov human ventricular model to quantify the impact of +/-15 and +/-30% variations in key model parameters on action potential (AP) properties, Ca(2+) and Na(+) dynamics, and their rate dependence. Simulations show that, in humans, AP duration is moderately sensitive to changes in all repolarization current conductances and in L-type Ca(2+) current (I(CaL)) and slow component of the delayed rectifier current (I(Ks)) inactivation kinetics. AP triangulation, however, is strongly dependent only on inward rectifier K(+) current (I(K1)) and delayed rectifier current (I(Kr)) conductances. Furthermore, AP rate dependence (i.e., AP duration rate adaptation and restitution properties) and intracellular Ca(2+) and Na(+) levels are highly sensitive to both I(CaL) and Na(+)/K(+) pump current (I(NaK)) properties. This study provides quantitative insights into the sensitivity of preclinical biomarkers of arrhythmic risk to variations in ionic current properties in humans. The results show the importance of sensitivity analysis as a powerful method for the in-depth validation of mathematical models in cardiac electrophysiology.

Regional prioritisation of flood risk in mountainous areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelis, M. C.; Werner, M.; Obregón, N.; Wright, G.

2015-07-01

A regional analysis of flood risk was carried out in the mountainous area surrounding the city of Bogotá (Colombia). Vulnerability at regional level was assessed on the basis of a principal component analysis carried out with variables recognised in literature to contribute to vulnerability; using watersheds as the unit of analysis. The area exposed was obtained from a simplified flood analysis at regional level to provide a mask where vulnerability variables were extracted. The vulnerability indicator obtained from the principal component analysis was combined with an existing susceptibility indicator, thus providing an index that allows the watersheds to be prioritised in support of flood risk management at regional level. Results show that the components of vulnerability can be expressed in terms of four constituent indicators; socio-economic fragility, which is composed of demography and lack of well-being; lack of resilience, which is composed of education, preparedness and response capacity, rescue capacity, social cohesion and participation; and physical exposure is composed of exposed infrastructure and exposed population. A sensitivity analysis shows that the classification of vulnerability is robust for watersheds with low and high values of the vulnerability indicator, while some watersheds with intermediate values of the indicator are sensitive to shifting between medium and high vulnerability. The complex interaction between vulnerability and hazard is evidenced in the case study. Environmental degradation in vulnerable watersheds shows the influence that vulnerability exerts on hazard and vice versa, thus establishing a cycle that builds up risk conditions.

Screening for prenatal substance use: development of the Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale.

PubMed

Yonkers, Kimberly A; Gotman, Nathan; Kershaw, Trace; Forray, Ariadna; Howell, Heather B; Rounsaville, Bruce J

2010-10-01

To report on the development of a questionnaire to screen for hazardous substance use in pregnant women and to compare the performance of the questionnaire with other drug and alcohol measures. Pregnant women were administered a modified TWEAK (Tolerance, Worried, Eye-openers, Amnesia, K[C] Cut Down) questionnaire, the 4Ps Plus questionnaire, items from the Addiction Severity Index, and two questions about domestic violence (N=2,684). The sample was divided into "training" (n=1,610) and "validation" (n=1,074) subsamples. We applied recursive partitioning class analysis to the responses from individuals in the training subsample that resulted in a three-item Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale. We examined sensitivity, specificity, and the fit of logistic regression models in the validation subsample to compare the performance of the Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale with the modified TWEAK and various scoring algorithms of the 4Ps. The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale is comprised of three informative questions that can be scored for high- or low-risk populations. The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale algorithm for low-risk populations was mostly highly predictive of substance use in the validation subsample (Akaike's Information Criterion=579.75, Nagelkerke R=0.27) with high sensitivity (91%) and adequate specificity (67%). The high-risk algorithm had lower sensitivity (57%) but higher specificity (88%). The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale is simple and flexible with good sensitivity and specificity. The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale can potentially detect a range of substances that may be abused. Clinicians need to further assess women with a positive screen to identify those who require treatment for alcohol or illicit substance use in pregnancy. III.

Weight Loss and Coronary Heart Disease: Sensitivity Analysis for Unmeasured Confounding by Undiagnosed Disease.

PubMed

Danaei, Goodarz; Robins, James M; Young, Jessica G; Hu, Frank B; Manson, JoAnn E; Hernán, Miguel A

2016-03-01

Evidence for the effect of weight loss on coronary heart disease (CHD) or mortality has been mixed. The effect estimates can be confounded due to undiagnosed diseases that may affect weight loss. We used data from the Nurses' Health Study to estimate the 26-year risk of CHD under several hypothetical weight loss strategies. We applied the parametric g-formula and implemented a novel sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding due to undiagnosed disease by imposing a lag time for the effect of weight loss on chronic disease. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted. The estimated 26-year risk of CHD did not change under weight loss strategies using lag times from 0 to 18 years. For a 6-year lag time, the risk ratios of CHD for weight loss compared with no weight loss ranged from 1.00 (0.99, 1.02) to 1.02 (0.99, 1.05) for different degrees of weight loss with and without restricting the weight loss strategy to participants with no major chronic disease. Similarly, no protective effect of weight loss was estimated for mortality risk. In contrast, we estimated a protective effect of weight loss on risk of type 2 diabetes. We estimated that maintaining or losing weight after becoming overweight or obese does not reduce the risk of CHD or death in this cohort of middle-age US women. Unmeasured confounding, measurement error, and model misspecification are possible explanations but these did not prevent us from estimating a beneficial effect of weight loss on diabetes.

Occupations at risk of developing contact allergy to isothiazolinones in Danish contact dermatitis patients: results from a Danish multicentre study (2009-2012).

PubMed

Schwensen, Jakob F; Menné, Torkil; Andersen, Klaus E; Sommerlund, Mette; Johansen, Jeanne D

2014-11-01

In recent years, the prevalence of contact allergy to isothiazolinones has reached epidemic levels. Few studies have presented data on occupations at risk of developing contact allergy to isothiazolinones. To present demographics and examine risk factors for sensitization to methylisothiazolinone (MI), methylchloroisothiazolinone (MCI) in combination with MI and benzisothiazolinone (BIT) in Danish dermatitis patients. A retrospective epidemiological analysis of data from three Danish hospitals departments was conducted. All patients consecutively patch tested with MI, MCI/MI and BIT between 2009 and 2013 were included. MI contact allergy showed a significantly increased trend in prevalence from 1.8% in 2009 to 4.2% in 2012 (p < 0.001). Females with facial dermatitis mainly drove the increase in 2012. Adjusted logistic regression analysis showed that MI sensitization was significantly associated with occupational exposures, hand and facial dermatitis, age > 40 years, and the occupational groups of tile setters/terrazzo workers, machine operators, and painters. MCI/MI contact allergy was significantly associated with the following high-risk occupations: painting, welding (blacksmiths), machine operating, and cosmetology. The occupational group of painting was frequent in the group of patients with BIT contact allergy. Several high-risk occupations for sensitization to isothiazolinones exist. Regulation on the allowed concentration of isothiazolinones, and especially MI, in both consumer products and industrial products is needed. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Setting Priorities in Behavioral Interventions: An Application to Reducing Phishing Risk.

PubMed

Canfield, Casey Inez; Fischhoff, Baruch

2018-04-01

Phishing risk is a growing area of concern for corporations, governments, and individuals. Given the evidence that users vary widely in their vulnerability to phishing attacks, we demonstrate an approach for assessing the benefits and costs of interventions that target the most vulnerable users. Our approach uses Monte Carlo simulation to (1) identify which users were most vulnerable, in signal detection theory terms; (2) assess the proportion of system-level risk attributable to the most vulnerable users; (3) estimate the monetary benefit and cost of behavioral interventions targeting different vulnerability levels; and (4) evaluate the sensitivity of these results to whether the attacks involve random or spear phishing. Using parameter estimates from previous research, we find that the most vulnerable users were less cautious and less able to distinguish between phishing and legitimate emails (positive response bias and low sensitivity, in signal detection theory terms). They also accounted for a large share of phishing risk for both random and spear phishing attacks. Under these conditions, our analysis estimates much greater net benefit for behavioral interventions that target these vulnerable users. Within the range of the model's assumptions, there was generally net benefit even for the least vulnerable users. However, the differences in the return on investment for interventions with users with different degrees of vulnerability indicate the importance of measuring that performance, and letting it guide interventions. This study suggests that interventions to reduce response bias, rather than to increase sensitivity, have greater net benefit. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: An assessment of the risk to Douglas commercial transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schjelderup, H. C.; Cook, C. Q.; Snyder, E.; Henning, B.; Hosford, J.; Gilles, D. L.; Swanstrom, C. W.

1980-01-01

The potential hazard to electrical and electronic devices should there be a release of free carbon fibers due to an aircraft crash and fire was assessed. Exposure and equipment sensitivity data were compiled for a risk analysis. Results are presented in the following areas: DC-9/DC-10 electrical/electronic component characterization; DC-9 and DC-10 fiber transfer functions; potential for transport aircraft equipment exposure to carbon fibers; and equipment vulnerability assessment. Results reflect only a negligible increase in risk for the DC-9 and DC-10 fleets either now or projected to 1993.

Dose-Fractionation Sensitivity of Prostate Cancer Deduced From Radiotherapy Outcomes of 5,969 Patients in Seven International Institutional Datasets: {alpha}/{beta} = 1.4 (0.9-2.2) Gy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miralbell, Raymond, E-mail: Raymond.Miralbell@hcuge.ch; Institut Oncologic Teknon, Barcelona; Roberts, Stephen A.

2012-01-01

Purpose: There are reports of a high sensitivity of prostate cancer to radiotherapy dose fractionation, and this has prompted several trials of hypofractionation schedules. It remains unclear whether hypofractionation will provide a significant therapeutic benefit in the treatment of prostate cancer, and whether there are different fractionation sensitivities for different stages of disease. In order to address this, multiple primary datasets have been collected for analysis. Methods and Materials: Seven datasets were assembled from institutions worldwide. A total of 5969 patients were treated using external beams with or without androgen deprivation (AD). Standard fractionation (1.8-2.0 Gy per fraction) was usedmore » for 40% of the patients, and hypofractionation (2.5-6.7 Gy per fraction) for the remainder. The overall treatment time ranged from 1 to 8 weeks. Low-risk patients comprised 23% of the total, intermediate-risk 44%, and high-risk 33%. Direct analysis of the primary data for tumor control at 5 years was undertaken, using the Phoenix criterion of biochemical relapse-free survival, in order to calculate values in the linear-quadratic equation of k (natural log of the effective target cell number), {alpha} (dose-response slope using very low doses per fraction), and the ratio {alpha}/{beta} that characterizes dose-fractionation sensitivity. Results: There was no significant difference between the {alpha}/{beta} value for the three risk groups, and the value of {alpha}/{beta} for the pooled data was 1.4 (95% CI = 0.9-2.2) Gy. Androgen deprivation improved the bNED outcome index by about 5% for all risk groups, but did not affect the {alpha}/{beta} value. Conclusions: The overall {alpha}/{beta} value was consistently low, unaffected by AD deprivation, and lower than the appropriate values for late normal-tissue morbidity. Hence the fractionation sensitivity differential (tumor/normal tissue) favors the use of hypofractionated radiotherapy schedules for all risk groups, which is also very beneficial logistically in limited-resource settings.« less

Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

2016-06-01

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Occurrence and health risk assessment of selected metals in drinking water from two typical remote areas in China.

PubMed

Geng, Menghan; Qi, Hongjuan; Liu, Xuelin; Gao, Bo; Yang, Zhan; Lu, Wei; Sun, Rubao

2016-05-01

The potential contaminations of 16 trace elements (Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sb, Ba, Pb, Co, Be, V, Ti, Tl, Al) in drinking water collected in two remote areas in China were analyzed. The average levels of the trace elements were lower than the allowable concentrations set by national agencies, except for several elements (As, Sb, Mn, and Be) in individual samples. A health risk assessment model was conducted and carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks were evaluated separately. The results indicated that the total carcinogenic risks were higher than the maximum allowed risk level set by most organizations (1 × 10(-6)). Residents in both study areas were at risk of carcinogenic effects from exposure to Cr, which accounted for 80-90 % of the total carcinogenic risks. The non-carcinogenic risks (Cu, Zn, Ni) were lower than the maximum allowance levels. Among the four population groups, infants incurred the highest health risks and required special attention. Correlation analysis revealed significant positive associations among most trace elements, indicating the likelihood of a common source. The results of probabilistic health risk assessment of Cr based on Monte-Carlo simulation revealed that the uncertainty of system parameters does not affect the decision making of pollution prevention and control. Sensitivity analysis revealed that ingestion rate of water and concentration of Cr showed relatively high sensitivity to the health risks.

Analysis and comparison of sleeping posture classification methods using pressure sensitive bed system.

PubMed

Hsia, C C; Liou, K J; Aung, A P W; Foo, V; Huang, W; Biswas, J

2009-01-01

Pressure ulcers are common problems for bedridden patients. Caregivers need to reposition the sleeping posture of a patient every two hours in order to reduce the risk of getting ulcers. This study presents the use of Kurtosis and skewness estimation, principal component analysis (PCA) and support vector machines (SVMs) for sleeping posture classification using cost-effective pressure sensitive mattress that can help caregivers to make correct sleeping posture changes for the prevention of pressure ulcers.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Nutritional Support for the Prevention of Pressure Ulcers in High-Risk Hospitalized Patients.

PubMed

Tuffaha, Haitham W; Roberts, Shelley; Chaboyer, Wendy; Gordon, Louisa G; Scuffham, Paul A

2016-06-01

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of nutritional support compared with standard care in preventing pressure ulcers (PrUs) in high-risk hospitalized patients. An economic model using data from a systematic literature review. A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials on the efficacy of nutritional support in reducing the incidence of PrUs was conducted. Modeled cohort of hospitalized patients at high risk of developing PrUs and malnutrition simulated during their hospital stay and up to 1 year. Standard care included PrU prevention strategies, such as redistribution surfaces, repositioning, and skin protection strategies, along with standard hospital diet. In addition to the standard care, the intervention group received nutritional support comprising patient education, nutrition goal setting, and the consumption of high-protein supplements. The analysis was from a healthcare payer perspective. Key outcomes of the model included the average costs and quality-adjusted life years. Model results were tested in univariate sensitivity analyses, and decision uncertainty was characterized using a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Compared with standard care, nutritional support was cost saving at AU $425 per patient and marginally more effective with an average 0.005 quality-adjusted life years gained. The probability of nutritional support being cost-effective was 87%. Nutritional support to prevent PrUs in high-risk hospitalized patients is cost-effective with substantial cost savings predicted. Hospitals should implement the recommendations from the current PrU practice guidelines and offer nutritional support to high-risk patients.

Waist circumference cut-off points for identification of abdominal obesity among the tunisian adult population.

PubMed

Bouguerra, R; Alberti, H; Smida, H; Salem, L B; Rayana, C B; El Atti, J; Achour, A; Gaigi, S; Slama, C B; Zouari, B; Alberti, K G M M

2007-11-01

Waist circumference (WC) is a convenient measure of abdominal adipose tissue. It itself is a cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes-risk factor and is strongly linked to other CVD risk factors. There are, however, ethnic differences in the relationship of WC to the other risk factors. The aim of this study was to determine the optimal cut-off points of WC and body mass index (BMI) at which cardiovascular risk factors can be identified with maximum sensitivity and specificity in a representative sample of the Tunisian adult population and to investigate any correlation between WC and BMI. We used a sample of the Tunisian National Nutrition Survey, a cross-sectional population-based survey, conducted in 1996 on a large nationally representative sample, which included 3435 adults (1244 men and 2191 women) of 20 years or older. WC, BMI, blood pressure and fasting blood measurements (plasma glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides) were recorded. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify optimal cut-off values of WC and BMI to identify with maximum sensitivity and specificity the detection of high blood pressure, hyperglycaemia, high blood cholesterol and hypertriglyceridaemia. ROC curve analysis suggested WC cut-off points of 85 cm in men and 85 cm in women for the optimum detection of high blood pressure, diabetes and dyslipidaemia. The optimum BMI cut-off points for predicting cardiovascular risk factors were 24 kg/m(2) in men and 27 kg/m(2) in women. The cut-off points recommended for the Caucasian population differ from those appropriate for the Tunisian population. The data show a continuous increase in odds ratios of each cardiovascular risk factor, with increasing level of WC and BMI. WC exceeding 85 cm in men and 79 cm in women correctly identified subjects with a BMI of >/=25 kg/m(2), sensitivity of >90% and specificity of >83%. Based on the ROC analysis, we suggest a WC of 85 cm for both men and women as appropriate cut-off points to identify central obesity for the purposes of CVD and diabetes-risk detection among Tunisians. WCs of 85 cm in men and 79 cm in women were the most sensitive and specific to identify most subjects with a BMI >/=25 kg/m(2).

Effect of topical application of dipyrone on dental sensitivity reduction after in-office dental bleaching: A randomized, triple-blind multicenter clinical trial.

PubMed

Rezende, Márcia; Chemin, Kaprice; Vaez, Savil Costa; Peixoto, Aline Carvalho; Rabelo, Jéssica de Freitas; Braga, Stella Sueli Lourenço; Faria-E-Silva, André Luis; Silva, Gisele Rodrigues da; Soares, Carlos José; Loguercio, Alessandro D; Reis, Alessandra

2018-05-01

Tooth sensitivity commonly occurs during and immediately after dental bleaching. The authors conducted a trial to compare tooth sensitivity after in-office bleaching after the use of either a topical dipyrone or placebo gel. A split-mouth, triple-blind, randomized, multicenter clinical trial was conducted among 120 healthy adults having teeth that were shade A2 or darker. The facial tooth surfaces of the right or left sides of the maxillary arch of each patient were randomly assigned to receive either topical dipyrone or placebo gel before 2 in-office bleaching sessions (35% hydrogen peroxide) separated by 2 weeks. Visual analog and numerical rating scales were used to record tooth sensitivity during and up to 48 hours after bleaching. Tooth color change from baseline to 1 month after bleaching was measured with shade guide and spectrophotometer measures. The primary outcome variable was absolute risk of tooth sensitivity. An intention-to-treat analysis was used to analyze data from all patients who were randomly assigned to receive the dipyrone and placebo gels. No statically significant difference was found in the absolute risk of tooth sensitivity between the dipyrone and placebo gels (83% and 90%, respectively, P = .09; relative risk, 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 1.0). A whitening effect was observed in both groups with no statistically significant difference (P > .05) between them. No adverse effects were observed. Topical use of dipyrone gel before tooth bleaching, at the levels used in this study, did not reduce the risk or intensity of bleaching-induced tooth sensitivity. Topical application of dipyrone gel does not reduce bleaching-induced tooth sensitivity. Copyright © 2018 American Dental Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of the Analysis of the Volatile Faecal Metabolome in Screening for Colorectal Cancer

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Diagnosis of colorectal cancer is an invasive and expensive colonoscopy, which is usually carried out after a positive screening test. Unfortunately, existing screening tests lack specificity and sensitivity, hence many unnecessary colonoscopies are performed. Here we report on a potential new screening test for colorectal cancer based on the analysis of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the headspace of faecal samples. Faecal samples were obtained from subjects who had a positive faecal occult blood sample (FOBT). Subjects subsequently had colonoscopies performed to classify them into low risk (non-cancer) and high risk (colorectal cancer) groups. Volatile organic compounds were analysed by selected ion flow tube mass spectrometry (SIFT-MS) and then data were analysed using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods. Ions most likely from hydrogen sulphide, dimethyl sulphide and dimethyl disulphide are statistically significantly higher in samples from high risk rather than low risk subjects. Results using multivariate methods show that the test gives a correct classification of 75% with 78% specificity and 72% sensitivity on FOBT positive samples, offering a potentially effective alternative to FOBT. PMID:26086914

Refining and validating a two-stage and web-based cancer risk assessment tool for village doctors in China.

PubMed

Shen, Xing-Rong; Chai, Jing; Feng, Rui; Liu, Tong-Zhu; Tong, Gui-Xian; Cheng, Jing; Li, Kai-Chun; Xie, Shao-Yu; Shi, Yong; Wang, De-Bin

2014-01-01

The big gap between efficacy of population level prevention and expectations due to heterogeneity and complexity of cancer etiologic factors calls for selective yet personalized interventions based on effective risk assessment. This paper documents our research protocol aimed at refining and validating a two-stage and web- based cancer risk assessment tool, from a tentative one in use by an ongoing project, capable of identifying individuals at elevated risk for one or more types of the 80% leading cancers in rural China with adequate sensitivity and specificity and featuring low cost, easy application and cultural and technical sensitivity for farmers and village doctors. The protocol adopted a modified population-based case control design using 72, 000 non-patients as controls, 2, 200 cancer patients as cases, and another 600 patients as cases for external validation. Factors taken into account comprised 8 domains including diet and nutrition, risk behaviors, family history, precancerous diseases, related medical procedures, exposure to environment hazards, mood and feelings, physical activities and anthropologic and biologic factors. Modeling stresses explored various methodologies like empirical analysis, logistic regression, neuro-network analysis, decision theory and both internal and external validation using concordance statistics, predictive values, etc..

Systematic review of fall risk screening tools for older patients in acute hospitals.

PubMed

Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata; Bartolozzi, Francesco; Piredda, Michela; De Marinis, Maria Grazia

2015-06-01

To determine the most accurate fall risk screening tools for predicting falls among patients aged 65 years or older admitted to acute care hospitals. Falls represent a serious problem in older inpatients due to the potential physical, social, psychological and economic consequences. Older inpatients present with risk factors associated with age-related physiological and psychological changes as well as multiple morbidities. Thus, fall risk screening tools for older adults should include these specific risk factors. There are no published recommendations addressing what tools are appropriate for older hospitalized adults. Systematic review. MEDLINE, CINAHL and Cochrane electronic databases were searched between January 1981-April 2013. Only prospective validation studies reporting sensitivity and specificity values were included. Recommendations of the Cochrane Handbook of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Reviews have been followed. Three fall risk assessment tools were evaluated in seven articles. Due to the limited number of studies, meta-analysis was carried out only for the STRATIFY and Hendrich Fall Risk Model II. In the combined analysis, the Hendrich Fall Risk Model II demonstrated higher sensitivity than STRATIFY, while the STRATIFY showed higher specificity. In both tools, the Youden index showed low prognostic accuracy. The identified tools do not demonstrate predictive values as high as needed for identifying older inpatients at risk for falls. For this reason, no tool can be recommended for fall detection. More research is needed to evaluate fall risk screening tools for older inpatients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Screening for Prenatal Substance Use

PubMed Central

Yonkers, Kimberly A.; Gotman, Nathan; Kershaw, Trace; Forray, Ariadna; Howell, Heather B.; Rounsaville, Bruce J.

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE To report on the development of a questionnaire to screen for hazardous substance use in pregnant women and to compare the performance of the questionnaire with other drug and alcohol measures. METHODS Pregnant women were administered a modified TWEAK (Tolerance, Worried, Eye-openers, Amnesia, K[C] Cut Down) questionnaire, the 4Ps Plus questionnaire, items from the Addiction Severity Index, and two questions about domestic violence (N=2,684). The sample was divided into “training” (n=1,610) and “validation” (n=1,074) subsamples. We applied recursive partitioning class analysis to the responses from individuals in the training subsample that resulted in a three-item Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale. We examined sensitivity, specificity, and the fit of logistic regression models in the validation subsample to compare the performance of the Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale with the modified TWEAK and various scoring algorithms of the 4Ps. RESULTS The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale is comprised of three informative questions that can be scored for high- or low-risk populations. The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale algorithm for low-risk populations was mostly highly predictive of substance use in the validation subsample (Akaike’s Information Criterion=579.75, Nagelkerke R2=0.27) with high sensitivity (91%) and adequate specificity (67%). The high-risk algorithm had lower sensitivity (57%) but higher specificity (88%). CONCLUSION The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale is simple and flexible with good sensitivity and specificity. The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale can potentially detect a range of substances that may be abused. Clinicians need to further assess women with a positive screen to identify those who require treatment for alcohol or illicit substance use in pregnancy. PMID:20859145

Postoperative complications following colectomy for ulcerative colitis: A validation study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Ulcerative colitis (UC) patients failing medical management require colectomy. This study compares risk estimates for predictors of postoperative complication derived from administrative data against that of chart review and evaluates the accuracy of administrative coding for this population. Methods Hospital administrative databases were used to identify adults with UC undergoing colectomy from 1996–2007. Medical charts were reviewed and regression analyses comparing chart versus administrative data were performed to assess the effect of age, emergent operation, and Charlson comorbidities on the occurrence of postoperative complications. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive/negative predictive values of administrative coding for identifying the study population, Charlson comorbidities, and postoperative complications were assessed. Results Compared to chart review, administrative data estimated a higher magnitude of effect for emergent admission (OR 2.52 [95% CI: 1.80–3.52] versus 1.49 [1.06–2.09]) and Charlson comorbidities (OR 2.91 [1.86–4.56] versus 1.50 [1.05–2.15]) as predictors of postoperative complications. Administrative data correctly identified UC and colectomy in 85.9% of cases. The administrative database was 37% sensitive in identifying patients with ≥ 1Charlson comorbidity. Restricting analysis to active comorbidities increased the sensitivity to 63%. The sensitivity of identifying patients with at least one postoperative complication was 68%; restricting analysis to more severe complications improved the sensitivity to 84%. Conclusions Administrative data identified the same risk factors for postoperative complications as chart review, but overestimated the magnitude of risk. This discrepancy may be explained by coding inaccuracies that selectively identifying the most serious complications and comorbidities. PMID:22943760

[Reliability and validity of the Braden Scale for predicting pressure sore risk].

PubMed

Boes, C

2000-12-01

For more accurate and objective pressure sore risk assessment various risk assessment tools were developed mainly in the USA and Great Britain. The Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk is one such example. By means of a literature analysis of German and English texts referring to the Braden Scale the scientific control criteria reliability and validity will be traced and consequences for application of the scale in Germany will be demonstrated. Analysis of 4 reliability studies shows an exclusive focus on interrater reliability. Further, even though examination of 19 validity studies occurs in many different settings, such examination is limited to the criteria sensitivity and specificity (accuracy). The range of sensitivity and specificity level is 35-100%. The recommended cut off points rank in the field of 10 to 19 points. The studies prove to be not comparable with each other. Furthermore, distortions in these studies can be found which affect accuracy of the scale. The results of the here presented analysis show an insufficient proof for reliability and validity in the American studies. In Germany, the Braden scale has not yet been tested under scientific criteria. Such testing is needed before using the scale in different German settings. During the course of such testing, construction and study procedures of the American studies can be used as a basis as can the problems be identified in the analysis presented below.

Informing Early Childhood Policy: An Analysis of the Sensitivity of a School Readiness Risk Index to Changes in Indicator Selection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schumacher, Krista S.

2015-01-01

The importance of school readiness to both the future of an individual child and society as a whole has given rise to several state-specific indexes designed to measure county-level risk for starting school unprepared to learn. One such index is the Oklahoma School Readiness Risk Index (OK SRRI), comprised of indicators known to be associated with…

Who is More Affected by Ozone Pollution? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Bell, Michelle L.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Dominici, Francesca

2014-01-01

Ozone is associated with adverse health; however, less is known about vulnerable/sensitive populations, which we refer to as sensitive populations. We systematically reviewed epidemiologic evidence (1988–2013) regarding sensitivity to mortality or hospital admission from short-term ozone exposure. We performed meta-analysis for overall associations by age and sex; assessed publication bias; and qualitatively assessed sensitivity to socioeconomic indicators, race/ethnicity, and air conditioning. The search identified 2,091 unique papers, with 167 meeting inclusion criteria (73 on mortality and 96 on hospitalizations and emergency department visits, including 2 examining both mortality and hospitalizations). The strongest evidence for ozone sensitivity was for age. Per 10-parts per billion increase in daily 8-hour ozone concentration, mortality risk for younger persons, at 0.60% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40, 0.80), was statistically lower than that for older persons, at 1.27% (95% CI: 0.76, 1.78). Findings adjusted for publication bias were similar. Limited/suggestive evidence was found for higher associations among women; mortality risks were 0.39% (95% CI: −0.22, 1.00) higher than those for men. We identified strong evidence for higher associations with unemployment or lower occupational status and weak evidence of sensitivity for racial/ethnic minorities and persons with low education, in poverty, or without central air conditioning. Findings show that some populations, especially the elderly, are particularly sensitive to short-term ozone exposure. PMID:24872350

[Uncertainty analysis of ecological risk assessment caused by heavy-metals deposition from MSWI emission].

PubMed

Liao, Zhi-Heng; Sun, Jia-Ren; Wu, Dui; Fan, Shao-Jia; Ren, Ming-Zhong; Lü, Jia-Yang

2014-06-01

The CALPUFF model was applied to simulate the ground-level atmospheric concentrations of Pb and Cd from municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) plants, and the soil concentration model was used to estimate soil concentration increments after atmospheric deposition based on Monte Carlo simulation, then ecological risk assessment was conducted by the potential ecological risk index method. The results showed that the largest atmospheric concentrations of Pb and Cd were 5.59 x 109-3) microg x m(-3) and 5.57 x 10(-4) microg x m(-3), respectively, while the maxima of soil concentration incremental medium of Pb and Cd were 2.26 mg x kg(-1) and 0.21 mg x kg(-1), respectively; High risk areas were located next to the incinerators, Cd contributed the most to the ecological risk, and Pb was basically free of pollution risk; Higher ecological hazard level was predicted at the most polluted point in urban areas with a 55.30% probability, while in rural areas, the most polluted point was assessed to moderate ecological hazard level with a 72.92% probability. In addition, sensitivity analysis of calculation parameters in the soil concentration model was conducted, which showed the simulated results of urban and rural area were most sensitive to soil mix depth and dry deposition rate, respectively.

Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

2016-01-01

To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pilot study of a program delivered within the regular service system in Germany: effect of a short-term attachment-based intervention on maternal sensitivity in mothers at risk for child abuse and neglect.

PubMed

Pillhofer, Melanie; Spangler, Gottfried; Bovenschen, Ina; Kuenster, Anne K; Gabler, Sandra; Fallon, Barbara; Fegert, Joerg M; Ziegenhain, Ute

2015-04-01

This pilot study examined the effectiveness of a short-term attachment-based intervention, the Ulm Model, in a German population at risk for child abuse and neglect. The intervention used home visits and video feedback to promote maternal sensitivity, and was implemented by trained staff within the health care and youth welfare systems. Mothers in the control group (n=33) received standard services only, while those in the intervention group (n=63) additionally the Ulm Model intervention. The outcomes measured were maternal sensitivity, as assessed by the CARE-Index at pre-intervention, after the last session, and at about 6 and 12 months of age; and infant socio-emotional development, as assessed by the ET6-6 development test at about 6 and 12 months of age. The moderating effects on treatment outcomes of two variables were examined: risk for child abuse (moderate vs. high) and type of maternal attachment representation (secure vs. insecure). Among participants at moderate risk for child abuse, no differences were found between the intervention group and control group in either maternal sensitivity or infant development. Among those considered high risk, mothers in the intervention group showed a significant increase in maternal sensitivity from pre- to post-intervention; however, no group differences were seen at follow-up. There were some indications that infants of mothers in the intervention group showed better emotional development. The variable of maternal attachment representation was not a significant moderator for the intervention effect, but post hoc analysis indicated that the mean sensitivity of secure mothers was significant higher at the 6-month follow-up. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rural Nevada and climate change: vulnerability, beliefs, and risk perception.

PubMed

Safi, Ahmad Saleh; Smith, William James; Liu, Zhnongwei

2012-06-01

In this article, we present the results of a study investigating the influence of vulnerability to climate change as a function of physical vulnerability, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity on climate change risk perception. In 2008/2009, we surveyed Nevada ranchers and farmers to assess their climate change-related beliefs, and risk perceptions, political orientations, and socioeconomic characteristics. Ranchers' and farmers' sensitivity to climate change was measured through estimating the proportion of their household income originating from highly scarce water-dependent agriculture to the total income. Adaptive capacity was measured as a combination of the Social Status Index and the Poverty Index. Utilizing water availability and use, and population distribution GIS databases; we assessed water resource vulnerability in Nevada by zip code as an indicator of physical vulnerability to climate change. We performed correlation tests and multiple regression analyses to examine the impact of vulnerability and its three distinct components on risk perception. We find that vulnerability is not a significant determinant of risk perception. Physical vulnerability alone also does not impact risk perception. Both sensitivity and adaptive capacity increase risk perception. While age is not a significant determinant of it, gender plays an important role in shaping risk perception. Yet, general beliefs such as political orientations and climate change-specific beliefs such as believing in the anthropogenic causes of climate change and connecting the locally observed impacts (in this case drought) to climate change are the most prominent determinants of risk perception. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

2009-12-01

Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the uncertainties of the final risk estimate will be helpful to decision makers to make better informed decisions and attributing this uncertainty to the input parameters helps to identify which parameters are most important when it comes to uncertainty in the final estimate and should therefore deserve additional attention in further research.

Lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Voss, Andreas; Fischer, Claudia; Schroeder, Rico; Figulla, Hans R; Goernig, Matthias

2012-07-01

The objectives of this study were to introduce a new type of heart-rate variability analysis improving risk stratification in patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and to provide additional information about impaired heart beat generation in these patients. Beat-to-beat intervals (BBI) of 30-min ECGs recorded from 91 DCM patients and 21 healthy subjects were analyzed applying the lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis (LSPPA) method. LSPPA includes the Poincaré plot reconstruction with lags of 1-100, rotating the cloud of points, its normalized segmentation adapted to their standard deviations, and finally, a frequency-dependent clustering. The lags were combined into eight different clusters representing specific frequency bands within 0.012-1.153 Hz. Statistical differences between low- and high-risk DCM could be found within the clusters II-VIII (e.g., cluster IV: 0.033-0.038 Hz; p = 0.0002; sensitivity = 85.7 %; specificity = 71.4 %). The multivariate statistics led to a sensitivity of 92.9 %, specificity of 85.7 % and an area under the curve of 92.1 % discriminating these patient groups. We introduced the LSPPA method to investigate time correlations in BBI time series. We found that LSPPA contributes considerably to risk stratification in DCM and yields the highest discriminant power in the low and very low-frequency bands.

Dietary fat intake and ovarian cancer risk: a meta-analysis of epidemiological studies

PubMed Central

Qiu, Wenlong; Lu, Heng; Qi, Yana; Wang, Xiuwen

2016-01-01

Observational studies assessing the association of dietary fat and risk of ovarian cancer yield discrepant results. Pertinent prospective cohort studies were identified by a PubMed search from inception to December 2015. Sixteen independent case-control and nine cohort studies on dietary fat intake were included, with approximately 900,000 subjects in total. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals were pooled using a random effects model. Heterogeneity, sensitivity analysis and publication bias were assessed; subgroup analysis and analysis stratified by EOC histology were conducted. The reported studies showed a significant increase of ovarian cancer risk with high consumption of total-, saturated-, and trans-fats, while serous ovarian cancer was more susceptible to dietary fat consumption than other pathological subtypes. No evidence of positive association between dietary fat intake and ovarian cancer risk was provided by cohort studies. Menopausal status, hormone replacement therapy, body mass index (BMI), and pregnancy times, modified the objective associations. In conclusion, the meta-analysis findings indicate that high consumption of total, saturated and trans-fats increase ovarian cancer risk, and different histological subtypes have different susceptibility to dietary fat. PMID:27119509

Fish oil supplementation and insulin sensitivity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Gao, Huanqing; Geng, Tingting; Huang, Tao; Zhao, Qinghua

2017-07-03

Fish oil supplementation has been shown to be associated with a lower risk of metabolic syndrome and benefit a wide range of chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and several types of cancers. However, the evidence of fish oil supplementation on glucose metabolism and insulin sensitivity is still controversial. This meta-analysis summarized the exist evidence of the relationship between fish oil supplementation and insulin sensitivity and aimed to evaluate whether fish oil supplementation could improve insulin sensitivity. We searched the Cochrane Library, PubMed, Embase database for the relevant studies update to Dec 2016. Two researchers screened the literature independently by the selection and exclusion criteria. Studies were pooled using random effect models to estimate a pooled SMD and corresponding 95% CI. This meta-analysis was performed by Stata 13.1 software. A total of 17 studies with 672 participants were included in this meta-analysis study after screening from 498 published articles found after the initial search. In a pooled analysis, fish oil supplementation had no effects on insulin sensitivity compared with the placebo (SMD 0.17, 95%CI -0.15 to 0.48, p = 0.292). In subgroup analysis, fish oil supplementation could benefit insulin sensitivity among people who were experiencing at least one symptom of metabolic disorders (SMD 0.53, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.88, p < 0.001). Similarly, there were no significant differences between subgroups of methods of insulin sensitivity, doses of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFA) of fish oil supplementation or duration of the intervention. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the results were robust. Short-term fish oil supplementation is associated with increasing the insulin sensitivity among those people with metabolic disorders.

Risk stratification for arrhythmic death in an emergency department cohort: a new method of nonlinear PD2i analysis of the ECG

PubMed Central

Skinner, James E; Meyer, Michael; Dalsey, William C; Nester, Brian A; Ramalanjaona, George; O’Neil, Brian J; Mangione, Antoinette; Terregino, Carol; Moreyra, Abel; Weiss, Daniel N; Anchin, Jerry M; Geary, Una; Taggart, Pamela

2008-01-01

Heart rate variability (HRV) reflects both cardiac autonomic function and risk of sudden arrhythmic death (AD). Indices of HRV based on linear stochastic models are independent risk factors for AD in postmyocardial infarction (MI) cohorts. Indices based on nonlinear deterministic models have a higher sensitivity and specificity for predicting AD in retrospective data. A new nonlinear deterministic model, the automated Point Correlation Dimension (PD2i), was prospectively evaluated for prediction of AD. Patients were enrolled (N = 918) in 6 emergency departments (EDs) upon presentation with chest pain and being determined to be at risk of acute MI (AMI) >7%. Brief digital ECGs (>1000 heartbeats, ∼15 min) were recorded and automated PD2i results obtained. Out-of-hospital AD was determined by modified Hinkle-Thaler criteria. All-cause mortality at 1 year was 6.2%, with 3.5% being ADs. Of the AD fatalities, 34% were without previous history of MI or diagnosis of AMI. The PD2i prediction of AD had sensitivity = 96%, specificity = 85%, negative predictive value = 99%, and relative risk >24.2 (p ≤ 0.001). HRV analysis by the time-dependent nonlinear PD2i algorithm can accurately predict risk of AD in an ED cohort and may have both life-saving and resource-saving implications for individual risk assessment. PMID:19209249

Higher order aberrations and relative risk of symptoms after LASIK.

PubMed

Sharma, Munish; Wachler, Brian S Boxer; Chan, Colin C K

2007-03-01

To understand what level of higher order aberrations increases the relative risk of visual symptoms in patients after myopic LASIK. This study was a retrospective comparative analysis of 103 eyes of 62 patients divided in two groups, matched for age, gender, pupil size, and spherical equivalent refraction. The symptomatic group comprised 36 eyes of 24 patients after conventional LASIK with different laser systems evaluated in our referral clinic and the asymptomatic control group consisted of 67 eyes of 38 patients following LADARVision CustomCornea wavefront LASIK. Comparative analysis was performed for uncorrected visual acuity (UCVA), best spectacle-corrected visual acuity (BSCVA), contrast sensitivity, refractive cylinder, and higher order aberrations. Wavefront analysis was performed with the LADARWave aberrometer at 6.5-mm analysis for all eyes. Blurring of vision was the most common symptom (41.6%) followed by double image (19.4%), halo (16.7%), and fluctuation in vision (13.9%) in symptomatic patients. A statistically significant difference was noted in UCVA (P = .001), BSCVA (P = .001), contrast sensitivity (P < .001), and manifest cylinder (P = .001) in the two groups. The percentage difference between the symptomatic and control group mean root-mean-square (RMS) values ranged from 157% to 206% or 1.57 to 2.06 times greater. Patients with visual symptoms after LASIK have significantly lower visual acuity and contrast sensitivity and higher mean RMS values for higher order aberrations than patients without symptoms. Root-mean-square values of greater than two times the normal after-LASIK population for any given laser platform may increase the relative risk of symptoms.

Filaggrin mutations increase allergic airway disease in childhood and adolescence through interactions with eczema and aeroallergen sensitization.

PubMed

Chan, Adrian; Terry, William; Zhang, Hongmei; Karmaus, Wilfried; Ewart, Susan; Holloway, John W; Roberts, Graham; Kurukulaaratchy, Ramesh; Arshad, Syed Hasan

2018-02-01

Filaggrin loss-of-function (FLG-LOF) mutations are an established genetic cause of eczema. These mutations have subsequently been reported to increase the risk of aeroallergen sensitization and allergic airway disease. However, it is unclear whether FLG variants require both eczema and aeroallergen sensitization to influence airway disease development long-term outcomes. To examine the effects of FLG-LOF mutations on allergic airway disease outcomes, with eczema and aeroallergen sensitization as intermediate variables, using the Isle of Wight birth cohort. Study participants were evaluated at ages 1, 2, 4, 10 and 18 years to ascertain the development of allergic diseases (eczema, asthma and allergic rhinitis) and aeroallergen sensitization (determined by skin prick tests). FLG-LOF mutations were genotyped in 1150 subjects. To understand the complex associations between FLG mutations, intermediate variables (eczema and aeroallergen sensitization) and airway disease, path analysis was performed. There were significant total effects of FLG-LOF mutations on both asthma and allergic rhinitis at all ages as well as on aeroallergen sensitization up till 10 years old. In the filaggrin-asthma analysis, a direct effect of FLG-LOF mutations was observed on early childhood eczema (age 1 and 2 years) (relative risk (RR) 2.01, 95% CI: 1.74-2.31, P < .001), and all significant indirect pathways on asthma outcomes passed through eczema at these ages. In contrast, for the filaggrin-rhinitis model, FLG-LOF mutations exerted significant direct effects on early eczema as well as rhinitis at 10 years (RR 1.99; 95% CI: 1.72-2.29, P = .002). FLG-LOF mutations are a significant risk factor for later childhood asthma and rhinitis. However, the pathway to asthma is only through early childhood eczema while a direct effect was observed for childhood rhinitis. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Exposure to ionizing radiation during dental X-rays is not associated with risk of developing meningioma: a meta-analysis based on seven case-control studies.

PubMed

Xu, Ping; Luo, Hong; Huang, Guang-Lei; Yin, Xin-Hai; Luo, Si-Yang; Song, Ju-Kun

2015-01-01

Many observational studies have found that exposure to dental X-rays is associated with the risk of development of meningioma. However, these findings are inconsistent. We conducted a meta-analysis to assess the relationship between exposure to dental X-rays and the risk of development of meningioma. The PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched to identify eligible studies. Summary odds ratio (OR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were used to compute the risk of meningioma development according to heterogeneity. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed to further explore the potential heterogeneity. Finally, publication bias was assessed. Seven case-control studies involving 6,174 patients and 19,459 controls were included in the meta-analysis. Neither exposure to dental X-rays nor performance of full-mouth panorex X-rays was associated with an increased risk of development of meningioma (overall: OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.70-1.32; dental X-rays: OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.89-1.25; panorex X-rays: OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.76-1.34). However, exposure to bitewing X-rays was associated with a slightly increased risk of development of meningioma (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.28-2.34). Similar results were obtained in the subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Little evidence of publication bias was observed. Based on the currently limited data, there is no association between exposure to dental X-rays and the risk of development of meningioma. However, these results should be cautiously interpreted because of the heterogeneity among studies. Additional large, high-quality clinical trials are needed to evaluate the association between exposure to dental X-rays and the risk of development of meningioma.

How do Changes in Hydro-Climate Conditions Alter the Risk of Infection With Fasciolosis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltrame, L.; Dunne, T.; Rose, H.; Walker, J.; Morgan, E.; Vickerman, P.; Wagener, T.

2017-12-01

Fasciolosis is a widespread parasitic disease of livestock and is emerging as a major zoonosis. Since the parasite and its intermediate host live and develop in the environment, risk of infection is directly affected by climatic-environmental conditions. Changes in disease prevalence, seasonality and distribution have been reported in recent years and attributed to altered temperature and rainfall patterns, raising concerns about the effects of climate change in the future. Therefore, it is urgent to understand how changes in climate-environmental drivers may alter the dynamics of disease risk in a quantitative way, to guide parasite control strategies and interventions in the coming decades. In a previous work, we developed and tested a novel mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Fasciolosis, which explicitly represents the parasite life-cycle in connection with key environmental processes, allowing to capture the impact of previously unseen conditions. In this study, we use the new mechanistic model to assess the sensitivity of infection rates to changes in climate-environmental factors. This is challenging as processes underlying disease transmission are complex and interacting, and may have contrasting effects on the parasite life-cycle stages. To this end, we set up a sensitivity analysis framework to investigate in a structured way which factors play a key role in controlling the magnitude, timing and spread of infection, and how the sensitivity of disease risk varies in time and space. Moreover, we define synthetic scenarios to explore the space of possible variability of the hydro-climate drivers and investigate conditions that lead to critical levels of infection. The study shows how the new model combined with the sensitivity analysis framework can support decision-making, providing useful information for disease management.

Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

2016-10-01

Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Effectiveness of and Dental Sensitivity to At-home Bleaching With 4% and 10% Hydrogen Peroxide: A Randomized, Triple-blind Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Chemin, K; Rezende, M; Loguercio, A D; Reis, A; Kossatz, S

To evaluate the risk for and intensity of tooth sensitivity and color change of at-home dental bleaching with 4% and 10% hydrogen peroxide (HP). For this study, 78 patients were selected according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria and randomized into two groups: HP 4 (White Class 4%, FGM) and HP 10 (White Class 10%, FGM). In both groups, the at-home bleaching was performed for a period of 30 minutes twice a day for two weeks. The color was assessed by Vita Classical, Vita Bleachedguide 3D-MASTER and spectrophotometer Vita Easyshade (Vita Zahnfabrik) at baseline, during bleaching (first and second weeks) and after bleaching (one month). Patients recorded their tooth sensitivity using a numeric rating scale (0-4) and visual analog scale (0-10). Data from color change (DeltaE data) was submitted to two-way analysis of variance. The color change data in Delta SGU from the two shade guide units were compared with the Mann Whitney test. The risk of tooth sensitivity was evaluated by χ 2 test and the intensity of tooth sensitivity from both scales was evaluated by a Mann-Whitney test (α=0.05). The absolute risk and intensity of tooth sensitivity was higher in the group that used HP 10 than the one that used HP 4. Data from change in the number of shade guide units and color variation after one month of bleaching for both groups showed significant whitening, with no difference between groups. At-home bleaching is effective with 4% and 10% HP concentrations, but 10% HP increased the absolute risk and intensity of tooth sensitivity during at-home bleaching.

Exposure to fluoride in drinking water and hip fracture risk: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Yin, Xin-Hai; Huang, Guang-Lei; Lin, Du-Ren; Wan, Cheng-Cheng; Wang, Ya-Dong; Song, Ju-Kun; Xu, Ping

2015-01-01

Many observational studies have shown that exposure to fluoride in drinking water is associated with hip fracture risk. However, the findings are varied or even contradictory. In this work, we performed a meta-analysis to assess the relationship between fluoride exposure and hip fracture risk. PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched to identify relevant observational studies from the time of inception until March 2014 without restrictions. Data from the included studies were extracted and analyzed by two authors. Summary relative risks (RRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using random- or fixed-effects models as appropriate. Sensitivity analyses and meta-regression were conducted to explore possible explanations for heterogeneity. Finally, publication bias was assessed. Fourteen observational studies involving thirteen cohort studies and one case-control study were included in the meta-analysis. Exposure to fluoride in drinking water does not significantly increase the incidence of hip fracture (RRs, 1.05; 95% CIs, 0.96-1.15). Sensitivity analyses based on adjustment for covariates, effect measure, country, sex, sample size, quality of Newcastle-Ottawa Scale scores, and follow-up period validated the strength of the results. Meta-regression showed that country, gender, quality of Newcastle-Ottawa Scale scores, adjustment for covariates and sample size were not sources of heterogeneity. Little evidence of publication bias was observed. The present meta-analysis suggests that chronic fluoride exposure from drinking water does not significantly increase the risk of hip fracture. Given the potential confounding factors and exposure misclassification, further large-scale, high-quality studies are needed to evaluate the association between exposure to fluoride in drinking water and hip fracture risk.

Exposure to Fluoride in Drinking Water and Hip Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

PubMed Central

Yin, Xin-Hai; Huang, Guang-Lei; Lin, Du-Ren; Wan, Cheng-Cheng; Wang, Ya-Dong; Song, Ju-Kun; Xu, Ping

2015-01-01

Background Many observational studies have shown that exposure to fluoride in drinking water is associated with hip fracture risk. However, the findings are varied or even contradictory. In this work, we performed a meta-analysis to assess the relationship between fluoride exposure and hip fracture risk. Methods PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched to identify relevant observational studies from the time of inception until March 2014 without restrictions. Data from the included studies were extracted and analyzed by two authors. Summary relative risks (RRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using random- or fixed-effects models as appropriate. Sensitivity analyses and meta-regression were conducted to explore possible explanations for heterogeneity. Finally, publication bias was assessed. Results Fourteen observational studies involving thirteen cohort studies and one case-control study were included in the meta-analysis. Exposure to fluoride in drinking water does not significantly increase the incidence of hip fracture (RRs, 1.05; 95% CIs, 0.96–1.15). Sensitivity analyses based on adjustment for covariates, effect measure, country, sex, sample size, quality of Newcastle–Ottawa Scale scores, and follow-up period validated the strength of the results. Meta-regression showed that country, gender, quality of Newcastle–Ottawa Scale scores, adjustment for covariates and sample size were not sources of heterogeneity. Little evidence of publication bias was observed. Conclusion The present meta-analysis suggests that chronic fluoride exposure from drinking water does not significantly increase the risk of hip fracture. Given the potential confounding factors and exposure misclassification, further large-scale, high-quality studies are needed to evaluate the association between exposure to fluoride in drinking water and hip fracture risk. PMID:26020536

Is there still a role for computed tomography and bone scintigraphy in prostate cancer staging? An analysis from the EUREKA-1 database.

PubMed

Gabriele, D; Collura, D; Oderda, M; Stura, I; Fiorito, C; Porpiglia, F; Terrone, C; Zacchero, M; Guiot, C; Gabriele, P

2016-04-01

According to the current guidelines, computed tomography (CT) and bone scintigraphy (BS) are optional in intermediate-risk and recommended in high-risk prostate cancer (PCa). We wonder whether it is time for these examinations to be dismissed, evaluating their staging accuracy in a large cohort of radical prostatectomy (RP) patients. To evaluate the ability of CT to predict lymph node involvement (LNI), we included 1091 patients treated with RP and pelvic lymph node dissection, previously staged with abdomino-pelvic CT. As for bone metastases, we included 1145 PCa patients deemed fit for surgery, previously staged with Tc-99m methylene diphosphonate planar BS. CT scan showed a sensitivity and specificity in predicting LNI of 8.8 and 98 %; subgroup analysis disclosed a significant association only for the high-risk subgroup of 334 patients (P 0.009) with a sensitivity of 11.8 % and positive predictive value (PPV) of 44.4 %. However, logistic multivariate regression analysis including preoperative risk factors excluded any additional predictive ability of CT even in the high-risk group (P 0.40). These data are confirmed by ROC curve analysis, showing a low AUC of 54 % for CT, compared with 69 % for Partin tables and 80 % for Briganti nomogram. BS showed some positivity in 74 cases, only four of whom progressed, while 49 patients with negative BS progressed during their follow-up, six of them immediately after surgery. According to our opinion, the role of CT and BS should be restricted to selected high-risk patients, while clinical predictive nomograms should be adopted for the surgical planning.

Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

2017-11-01

The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

The Accuracy of Integrated [18F] Fluorodeoxyglucose-Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography in Detection of Pelvic and Para-aortic Nodal Metastasis in Patients with High Risk Endometrial Cancer

PubMed Central

Gholkar, Nikhil Shirish; Saha, Subhas Chandra; Prasad, GRV; Bhattacharya, Anish; Srinivasan, Radhika; Suri, Vanita

2014-01-01

Lymph nodal (LN) metastasis is the most important prognostic factor in high-risk endometrial cancer. However, the benefit of routine lymphadenectomy in endometrial cancer is controversial. This study was conducted to assess the accuracy of [18F] fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography/computed tomography ([18F] FDG-PET/CT) in detection of pelvic and para-aortic nodal metastases in high-risk endometrial cancer. 20 patients with high-risk endometrial carcinoma underwent [18F] FDG-PET/CT followed by total abdominal hysterectomy, bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy and systematic pelvic lymphadenectomy with or without para-aortic lymphadenectomy. The findings on histopathology were compared with [18F] FDG-PET/CT findings to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy of [18F] FDG-PET/CT. The pelvic nodal findings were analyzed on a patient and nodal chain based criteria. The para-aortic nodal findings were reported separately. Histopathology documented nodal involvement in two patients (10%). For detection of pelvic nodes, on a patient based analysis, [18F] FDG-PET/CT had a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 61.11%, PPV of 22.22%, NPV of 100% and accuracy of 65% and on a nodal chain based analysis, [18F] FDG-PET/CT had a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 80%, PPV of 20%, NPV of 100%, and accuracy of 80.95%. For detection of para-aortic nodes, [18F] FDG-PET/CT had sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 66.67%, PPV of 20%, NPV of 100%, and accuracy of 69.23%. Although [18F] FDG-PET/CT has high sensitivity for detection of LN metastasis in endometrial carcinoma, it had moderate accuracy and high false positivity. However, the high NPV is important in selecting patients in whom lymphadenectomy may be omitted. PMID:25538488

A Multi-scale Approach for CO2 Accounting and Risk Analysis in CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Z.; Viswanathan, H. S.; Middleton, R. S.; Pan, F.; Ampomah, W.; Yang, C.; Jia, W.; Lee, S. Y.; McPherson, B. J. O. L.; Grigg, R.; White, M. D.

2015-12-01

Using carbon dioxide in enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) is a promising technology for emissions management because CO2-EOR can dramatically reduce carbon sequestration costs in the absence of greenhouse gas emissions policies that include incentives for carbon capture and storage. This study develops a multi-scale approach to perform CO2 accounting and risk analysis for understanding CO2 storage potential within an EOR environment at the Farnsworth Unit of the Anadarko Basin in northern Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil-water flow and transport in the Marrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major risk metrics: CO2 injection rate, CO2 first breakthrough time, CO2 production rate, cumulative net CO2 storage, cumulative oil and CH4 production, and water injection and production rates. A global sensitivity analysis indicates that reservoir permeability, porosity, and thickness are the major intrinsic reservoir parameters that control net CO2 injection/storage and oil/CH4 recovery rates. The well spacing (the distance between the injection and production wells) and the sequence of alternating CO2 and water injection are the major operational parameters for designing an effective five-spot CO2-EOR pattern. The response surface analysis shows that net CO2 injection rate increases with the increasing reservoir thickness, permeability, and porosity. The oil/CH4 production rates are positively correlated to reservoir permeability, porosity and thickness, but negatively correlated to the initial water saturation. The mean and confidence intervals are estimated for quantifying the uncertainty ranges of the risk metrics. The results from this study provide useful insights for understanding the CO2 storage potential and the corresponding risks of commercial-scale CO2-EOR fields.

Direct potable reuse microbial risk assessment methodology: Sensitivity analysis and application to State log credit allocations.

PubMed

Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P

2018-01-01

Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Association Between Opioid Use and Risk of Erectile Dysfunction: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Zhao, Shankun; Deng, Tuo; Luo, Lianmin; Wang, Jiamin; Li, Ermao; Liu, Luhao; Li, Futian; Luo, Jintai; Zhao, Zhigang

2017-10-01

Opioid analgesics have been widely used to relieve chronic pain conditions; however, a connection between opioid analgesic administration and increased susceptibility to erectile dysfunction (ED) has been hypothesized. To evaluate whether opioid use was a risk factor for ED in a systematic review and meta-analysis. The PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Embase databases were searched to identify eligible studies concerning opioid use and risk of ED from inception to April 2017. The association between opioid use and risk of ED was summarized using the relative risk with 95% CI. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess potential bias. The Begg and Egger tests were used for publication bias analysis. The GRADE evidence profile tool was used to assess the quality of the evidence. The overall combined risk estimates for the effect of opioid use on ED were calculated using a random-effects model. This meta-analysis included 8,829 men (mean age = 41.6 years) from 10 studies, 2,456 of whom received opioid management (duration of intervention = 4 months to 9.5 years). Pooled results demonstrated that the use of opioids was significantly associated with an increased risk of ED (relative risk = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.66-2.32, P < .001). Estimates of the total effects were generally consistent in the sensitivity analysis. No evidence of publication bias was observed. The overall quality of evidence was rated as low. We found that men with opioid use had a significantly increased prevalence of ED, which suggests that patients and clinicians should be aware of the potential role played by opioid administration in the development of ED. This is the first meta-analysis performed to describe the relation between opioid use and ED risk based on all available epidemiologic studies. However, the direction of causality between opioid use and risk of ED should be interpreted with caution because most included studies used a cross-sectional design. Evidence from the included observational studies indicated that men with opioid use had a significantly increased risk of ED. Further randomized controlled trials are still needed to confirm this relation. Zhao S, Deng T, Luo L, et al. Association Between Opioid Use and Risk of Erectile Dysfunction: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. J Sex Med 2017;14:1209-1219. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Sexual Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Posttreatment human papillomavirus testing for residual or recurrent high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: a pooled analysis

PubMed Central

Yoshikawa, Hiroyuki

2016-01-01

Objective We conducted a pooled analysis of published studies to compare the performance of human papillomavirus (HPV) testing and cytology in detecting residual or recurrent diseases after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or 3 (CIN 2/3). Methods Source articles presenting data on posttreatment HPV testing were identified from the National Library of Medicine (PubMed) database. We included 5,319 cases from 33 articles published between 1996 and 2013. Results The pooled sensitivity of high-risk HPV testing (0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90 to 0.94) for detecting posttreatment CIN 2 or worse (CIN 2+) was much higher than that of cytology (0.76; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.80). Co-testing of HPV testing and cytology maximized the sensitivity (0.93; 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.96), while HPV genotyping (detection of the same genotype between pre- and posttreatments) did not improve the sensitivity (0.89; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.94) compared with high-risk HPV testing alone. The specificity of high-risk HPV testing (0.83; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.84) was similar to that of cytology (0.85; 95% CI, 0.84 to 0.87) and HPV genotyping (0.83; 95% CI, 0.81 to 0.85), while co-testing had reduced specificity (0.76; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.78). For women with positive surgical margins, high-risk HPV testing provided remarkable risk discrimination between test-positives and test-negatives (absolute risk of residual CIN 2+ 74.4% [95% CI, 64.0 to 82.6] vs. 0.8% [95% CI, 0.15 to 4.6]; p<0.001). Conclusion Our findings recommend the addition of high-risk HPV testing, either alone or in conjunction with cytology, to posttreatment surveillance strategies. HPV testing can identify populations at greatest risk of posttreatment CIN 2+ lesions, especially among women with positive section margins. PMID:26463429

Accelerated Monte Carlo Simulation for Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thipphavong, David

2010-01-01

Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of any air traffic control system. An accelerated Monte Carlo approach was developed to assess the level of safety provided by a proposed next-generation air traffic control system. It combines features of fault tree and standard Monte Carlo methods. It runs more than one order of magnitude faster than the standard Monte Carlo method while providing risk estimates that only differ by about 10%. It also preserves component-level model fidelity that is difficult to maintain using the standard fault tree method. This balance of speed and fidelity allows sensitivity analysis to be completed in days instead of weeks or months with the standard Monte Carlo method. Results indicate that risk estimates are sensitive to transponder, pilot visual avoidance, and conflict detection failure probabilities.

Gender-specific effects of oral hypoglycaemic agents on cancer risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Sun, G E C; Wells, B J; Yip, K; Zimmerman, R; Raghavan, D; Kattan, M W; Kashyap, S R

2014-03-01

To analyse the association between cancer incidence and oral diabetes therapy (biguanide, sulphonylurea, thiazolidinedione and meglitinide) in men and women with type 2 diabetes mellitus. A retrospective analysis of the electronic health record-based Cleveland Clinic Diabetes Registry (25 613 patients) was cross-indexed with the histology-based tumour registry (48 051 cancer occurrences) over an 8-year period (1998-2006). Multiple imputations were used to account for missing data. Cox regression with propensity scores was used to model time for the development of incident cancer in each of the imputed datasets and the results were pooled. During 51 994 person follow-up years, 892 incident cancer cases were identified; prostate (14.5%) and breast (11.7%) malignancies were most frequent. In women, thiazolidinedione use was associated with a 32% decreased cancer risk compared with sulphonylurea use [hazard ratio (HR) 0.68; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.48-0.97, in the adjusted analysis]. Comparison of insulin secretagogues (sulphonylurea and meglitinide) versus insulin sensitizers (biguanide and thiazolidinedione) demonstrated a 21% decreased cancer risk in insulin sensitizers [HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.64-0.98) in the adjusted analysis]. Oral diabetes therapy showed no significant difference in men. Adjustments were made for age, body mass index (BMI), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), triglycerides, coronary heart disease (CHD), diabetes oral monotherapy, race, gender, haemoglobin A1c, statin use, income, insulin use, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), new diabetes status, prior cancer, prior cerebrovascular accident (stroke or transient ischaemic event), systolic/diastolic blood pressure, tobacco use (ever/never) and the propensity score for receiving a biguanide. Oral insulin sensitizers, particularly thiazolidinedione, are associated with decreased malignancy risk in women with type 2 diabetes mellitus. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Toxicity risk assessment of mercury, DDT and arsenic legacy pollution in sediments: A triad approach under low concentration conditions.

PubMed

Marziali, L; Rosignoli, F; Drago, A; Pascariello, S; Valsecchi, L; Rossaro, B; Guzzella, L

2017-09-01

The determination of sediment toxicity is challenging due to site-specific factors affecting pollutants distribution and bioavailability, especially when contamination levels are close to expected non-effect concentrations. Different lines of evidence and sensitive tools are necessary for a proper toxicity risk assessment. We examined the case study of the Toce River (Northern Italy), where past industrial activities determined Hg, DDT and As enrichment in sediments. A triad approach comprising chemical, ecotoxicological and ecological analyses (benthic invertebrates) was carried out for risk assessment of residual contamination in river sediments. A "blank" site upstream from the industrial site was selected to compare the other sites downstream. Sediment, water and benthic invertebrate samplings were carried out following standard protocols. Results emphasized that despite the emissions of the industrial site ceased about 20years ago, sediments in the downstream section of the river remain contaminated by Hg, DDT and As with concentrations exceeding Threshold Effect Concentrations. A chronic whole-sediment test with Chironomus riparius showed decreased development rate and a lower number of eggs per mass in the contaminated sediments. Benthic community was analyzed with the calculation of integrated (STAR_ICMi) and stressor-specific metrics (SPEAR pesticide and mean sensitivity to Hg), but no significant differences were found between upstream and downstream sites. On the other hand, multivariate analysis (partial Redundancy Analysis and variation partitioning) emphasized a slight impact on invertebrate community, accounting for 5% variation in taxa composition. Results show that legacy contaminants in sediments, even at low concentrations, may be bioavailable and possibly toxic for benthic invertebrates. At low concentration levels, sensitive and site-specific tools need to be developed for a proper risk analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigating Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Integrated, Multimedia Environmental Models: Tools for FRAMES-3MRA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Babendreier, Justin E.; Castleton, Karl J.

2005-08-01

Elucidating uncertainty and sensitivity structures in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-medium constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. Quantitative assessment of integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a comparative approach using several techniques, coupled with sufficient computational power. The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems - Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment (FRAMES-3MRA) is an important software model being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in risk assessment of hazardous waste management facilities. The 3MRAmore » modeling system includes a set of 17 science modules that collectively simulate release, fate and transport, exposure, and risk associated with hazardous contaminants disposed of in land-based waste management units (WMU) .« less

Interim reliability-evaluation program: analysis of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. Appendix C - sequence quantification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1982-07-01

This report describes a risk study of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. The study is one of four such studies sponsored by the NRC Office of Research, Division of Risk Assessment, as part of its Interim Reliability Evaluation Program (IREP), Phase II. This report is contained in four volumes: a main report and three appendixes. Appendix C generally describes the methods used to estimate accident sequence frequency values. Information is presented concerning the approach, example collection, failure data, candidate dominant sequences, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Probiotic Use to Prevent Clostridium difficile Infection in Hospitalized Adults Receiving Antibiotics.

PubMed

Shen, Nicole T; Leff, Jared A; Schneider, Yecheskel; Crawford, Carl V; Maw, Anna; Bosworth, Brian; Simon, Matthew S

2017-01-01

Systematic reviews with meta-analyses and meta-regression suggest that timely probiotic use can prevent Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in hospitalized adults receiving antibiotics, but the cost effectiveness is unknown. We sought to evaluate the cost effectiveness of probiotic use for prevention of CDI versus no probiotic use in the United States. We programmed a decision analytic model using published literature and national databases with a 1-year time horizon. The base case was modeled as a hypothetical cohort of hospitalized adults (mean age 68) receiving antibiotics with and without concurrent probiotic administration. Projected outcomes included quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs (2013 US dollars), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs; $/QALY), and cost per infection avoided. One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted, and scenarios of different age cohorts were considered. The ICERs less than $100000 per QALY were considered cost effective. Probiotic use dominated (more effective and less costly) no probiotic use. Results were sensitive to probiotic efficacy (relative risk <0.73), the baseline risk of CDI (>1.6%), the risk of probiotic-associated bactermia/fungemia (<0.26%), probiotic cost (<$130), and age (>65). In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100000/QALY, probiotics were the optimal strategy in 69.4% of simulations. Our findings suggest that probiotic use may be a cost-effective strategy to prevent CDI in hospitalized adults receiving antibiotics age 65 or older or when the baseline risk of CDI exceeds 1.6%.

Risk finance for catastrophe losses with Pareto-calibrated Lévy-stable severities.

PubMed

Powers, Michael R; Powers, Thomas Y; Gao, Siwei

2012-11-01

For catastrophe losses, the conventional risk finance paradigm of enterprise risk management identifies transfer, as opposed to pooling or avoidance, as the preferred solution. However, this analysis does not necessarily account for differences between light- and heavy-tailed characteristics of loss portfolios. Of particular concern are the decreasing benefits of diversification (through pooling) as the tails of severity distributions become heavier. In the present article, we study a loss portfolio characterized by nonstochastic frequency and a class of Lévy-stable severity distributions calibrated to match the parameters of the Pareto II distribution. We then propose a conservative risk finance paradigm that can be used to prepare the firm for worst-case scenarios with regard to both (1) the firm's intrinsic sensitivity to risk and (2) the heaviness of the severity's tail. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Reliability Coupled Sensitivity Based Design Approach for Gravity Retaining Walls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guha Ray, A.; Baidya, D. K.

2012-09-01

Sensitivity analysis involving different random variables and different potential failure modes of a gravity retaining wall focuses on the fact that high sensitivity of a particular variable on a particular mode of failure does not necessarily imply a remarkable contribution to the overall failure probability. The present paper aims at identifying a probabilistic risk factor ( R f ) for each random variable based on the combined effects of failure probability ( P f ) of each mode of failure of a gravity retaining wall and sensitivity of each of the random variables on these failure modes. P f is calculated by Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis of each random variable is carried out by F-test analysis. The structure, redesigned by modifying the original random variables with the risk factors, is safe against all the variations of random variables. It is observed that R f for friction angle of backfill soil ( φ 1 ) increases and cohesion of foundation soil ( c 2 ) decreases with an increase of variation of φ 1 , while R f for unit weights ( γ 1 and γ 2 ) for both soil and friction angle of foundation soil ( φ 2 ) remains almost constant for variation of soil properties. The results compared well with some of the existing deterministic and probabilistic methods and found to be cost-effective. It is seen that if variation of φ 1 remains within 5 %, significant reduction in cross-sectional area can be achieved. But if the variation is more than 7-8 %, the structure needs to be modified. Finally design guidelines for different wall dimensions, based on the present approach, are proposed.

Retrospective validation of the laparoscopic ICG SLN mapping in patients with grade 3 endometrial cancer.

PubMed

Papadia, Andrea; Gasparri, Maria Luisa; Radan, Anda P; Stämpfli, Chantal A L; Rau, Tilman T; Mueller, Michael D

2018-04-24

To evaluate the sensitivity, negative predictive value (NPV) and false-negative (FN) rate of the near infrared (NIR) indocyanine green (ICG) sentinel lymph node (SLN) mapping in patients with poorly differentiated endometrial cancer who have undergone a full pelvic and para-aortic lymphadenectomy after SLN mapping. We performed a retrospective analysis of patients with endometrial cancer undergoing a laparoscopic NIR-ICG SLN mapping followed by a systematic pelvic and para-aortic lymphadenectomy. Inclusion criteria were a grade 3 endometrial cancer or a high-risk histology (papillary serous, clear cell carcinoma, carcinosarcoma, and neuroendocrine carcinoma) and a completion pelvic and para-aortic lymphadenectomy to the renal vessels after SLN mapping. Overall and bilateral detection rates, sensitivity, NPV, and FN rates were calculated. From December 2012 until January 2017, 42 patients fulfilled inclusion criteria. Overall and bilateral detection rates were 100 and 90.5%, respectively. Overall, 23.8% of the patients had lymph node metastases. In one patient, despite negative bilateral pelvic SLNs, a metastatic non-SLN-isolated para-aortic metastasis was detected. This NSLN was clinically suspicious and sent to frozen section analysis during the surgery. FN rate, sensitivity, and NPV were 10, 90, and 97.1%, respectively. For the SLN mapping algorithm, FN rate, sensitivity, and NPV were 0, 100, and 100%, respectively. Laparoscopic NIR-ICG SLN mapping in high-risk endometrial cancer patients has acceptable sensitivity, FN rate, and NPV.

Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management.

PubMed

Oddo, Perry C; Lee, Ben S; Garner, Gregory G; Srikrishnan, Vivek; Reed, Patrick M; Forest, Chris E; Keller, Klaus

2017-09-05

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Organic Solvents as Risk Factor for Autoimmune Diseases: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Barragán-Martínez, Carolina; Speck-Hernández, Cesar A.; Montoya-Ortiz, Gladis; Mantilla, Rubén D.; Anaya, Juan-Manuel; Rojas-Villarraga, Adriana

2012-01-01

Background Genetic and epigenetic factors interacting with the environment over time are the main causes of complex diseases such as autoimmune diseases (ADs). Among the environmental factors are organic solvents (OSs), which are chemical compounds used routinely in commercial industries. Since controversy exists over whether ADs are caused by OSs, a systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to assess the association between OSs and ADs. Methods and Findings The systematic search was done in the PubMed, SCOPUS, SciELO and LILACS databases up to February 2012. Any type of study that used accepted classification criteria for ADs and had information about exposure to OSs was selected. Out of a total of 103 articles retrieved, 33 were finally included in the meta-analysis. The final odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained by the random effect model. A sensitivity analysis confirmed results were not sensitive to restrictions on the data included. Publication bias was trivial. Exposure to OSs was associated to systemic sclerosis, primary systemic vasculitis and multiple sclerosis individually and also to all the ADs evaluated and taken together as a single trait (OR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.25–1.92; p-value<0.001). Conclusion Exposure to OSs is a risk factor for developing ADs. As a corollary, individuals with non-modifiable risk factors (i.e., familial autoimmunity or carrying genetic factors) should avoid any exposure to OSs in order to avoid increasing their risk of ADs. PMID:23284705

Assessment of Uncertainty-Based Screening Volumes for NASA Robotic LEO and GEO Conjunction Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Narvet, Steven W.; Frigm, Ryan C.; Hejduk, Matthew D.

2011-01-01

Conjunction Assessment operations require screening assets against the space object catalog by placing a pre-determined spatial volume around each asset and predicting when another object will violate that volume. The selection of the screening volume used for each spacecraft is a trade-off between observing all conjunction events that may pose a potential risk to the primary spacecraft and the ability to analyze those predicted events. If the screening volumes are larger, then more conjunctions can be observed and therefore the probability of a missed detection of a high risk conjunction event is small; however, the amount of data which needs to be analyzed increases. This paper characterizes the sensitivity of screening volume size to capturing typical orbit uncertainties and the expected number of conjunction events observed. These sensitivities are quantified in the form of a trade space that allows for selection of appropriate screen-ing volumes to fit the desired concept of operations, system limitations, and tolerable analyst workloads. This analysis will specifically highlight the screening volume determination and selection process for use in the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis process but will also provide a general framework for other Owner / Operators faced with similar decisions.

High-depth, high-accuracy microsatellite genotyping enables precision lung cancer risk classification

PubMed Central

Velmurugan, K R; Varghese, R T; Fonville, N C; Garner, H R

2017-01-01

There remains a large discrepancy between the known genetic contributions to cancer and that which can be explained by genomic variants, both inherited and somatic. Recently, understudied repetitive DNA regions called microsatellites have been identified as genetic risk markers for a number of diseases including various cancers (breast, ovarian and brain). In this study, we demonstrate an integrated process for identifying and further evaluating microsatellite-based risk markers for lung cancer using data from the cancer genome atlas and the 1000 genomes project. Comparing whole-exome germline sequencing data from 488 TCGA lung cancer samples to germline exome data from 390 control samples from the 1000 genomes project, we identified 119 potentially informative microsatellite loci. These loci were found to be able to distinguish between cancer and control samples with sensitivity and specificity ratios over 0.8. Then these loci, supplemented with additional loci from other cancers and controls, were evaluated using a target enrichment kit and sample-multiplexed nextgen sequencing. Thirteen of the 119 risk markers were found to be informative in a well powered study (>0.99 for a 0.95 confidence interval) using high-depth (579x±315) nextgen sequencing of 30 lung cancer and 89 control samples, resulting in sensitivity and specificity ratios of 0.90 and 0.94, respectively. When 8 loci harvested from the bioinformatic analysis of other cancers are added to the classifier, then the sensitivity and specificity rise to 0.93 and 0.97, respectively. Analysis of the genes harboring these loci revealed two genes (ARID1B and REL) and two significantly enriched pathways (chromatin organization and cellular stress response) suggesting that the process of lung carcinogenesis is linked to chromatin remodeling, inflammation, and tumor microenvironment restructuring. We illustrate that high-depth sequencing enables a high-precision microsatellite-based risk classifier analysis approach. This microsatellite-based platform confirms the potential to create clinically actionable diagnostics for lung cancer. PMID:28759038

High-depth, high-accuracy microsatellite genotyping enables precision lung cancer risk classification.

PubMed

Velmurugan, K R; Varghese, R T; Fonville, N C; Garner, H R

2017-11-16

There remains a large discrepancy between the known genetic contributions to cancer and that which can be explained by genomic variants, both inherited and somatic. Recently, understudied repetitive DNA regions called microsatellites have been identified as genetic risk markers for a number of diseases including various cancers (breast, ovarian and brain). In this study, we demonstrate an integrated process for identifying and further evaluating microsatellite-based risk markers for lung cancer using data from the cancer genome atlas and the 1000 genomes project. Comparing whole-exome germline sequencing data from 488 TCGA lung cancer samples to germline exome data from 390 control samples from the 1000 genomes project, we identified 119 potentially informative microsatellite loci. These loci were found to be able to distinguish between cancer and control samples with sensitivity and specificity ratios over 0.8. Then these loci, supplemented with additional loci from other cancers and controls, were evaluated using a target enrichment kit and sample-multiplexed nextgen sequencing. Thirteen of the 119 risk markers were found to be informative in a well powered study (>0.99 for a 0.95 confidence interval) using high-depth (579x±315) nextgen sequencing of 30 lung cancer and 89 control samples, resulting in sensitivity and specificity ratios of 0.90 and 0.94, respectively. When 8 loci harvested from the bioinformatic analysis of other cancers are added to the classifier, then the sensitivity and specificity rise to 0.93 and 0.97, respectively. Analysis of the genes harboring these loci revealed two genes (ARID1B and REL) and two significantly enriched pathways (chromatin organization and cellular stress response) suggesting that the process of lung carcinogenesis is linked to chromatin remodeling, inflammation, and tumor microenvironment restructuring. We illustrate that high-depth sequencing enables a high-precision microsatellite-based risk classifier analysis approach. This microsatellite-based platform confirms the potential to create clinically actionable diagnostics for lung cancer.

The mode of sensitization and its influence on allograft outcomes in highly sensitized kidney transplant recipients.

PubMed

Redfield, Robert R; Scalea, Joseph R; Zens, Tiffany J; Mandelbrot, Didier A; Leverson, Glen; Kaufman, Dixon B; Djamali, Arjang

2016-10-01

We sought to determine whether the mode of sensitization in highly sensitized patients contributed to kidney allograft survival. An analysis of the United Network for Organ Sharing dataset involving all kidney transplants between 1997 and 2014 was undertaken. Highly sensitized adult kidney transplant recipients [panel reactive antibody (PRA) ≥98%] were compared with adult, primary non-sensitized and re-transplant recipients. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were used to determine allograft survival rates. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted to determine the association of graft loss with key predictors. Fifty-three percent of highly sensitized patients transplanted were re-transplants. Pregnancy and transfusion were the only sensitizing event in 20 and 5%, respectively. The 10-year actuarial graft survival for highly sensitized recipients was 43.9% compared with 52.4% for non-sensitized patients, P < 0.001. The combination of being highly sensitized by either pregnancy or blood transfusion increased the risk of graft loss by 23% [hazard ratio (HR) 1.230, confidence interval (CI) 1.150-1.315, P < 0.001], and the combination of being highly sensitized from a prior transplant increased the risk of graft loss by 58.1% (HR 1.581, CI 1.473-1.698, P < 0.001). The mode of sensitization predicts graft survival in highly sensitized kidney transplant recipients (PRA ≥98%). Patients who are highly sensitized from re-transplants have inferior graft survival compared with patients who are highly sensitized from other modes of sensitization. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

AQUATOX coupled foodweb model for ecosystem risk assessment of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in lake ecosystems.

PubMed

Zhang, Lulu; Liu, Jingling

2014-08-01

The AQUATOX model considers the direct toxic effects of chemicals and their indirect effects through foodwebs. For this study, the AQUATOX model was applied to evaluating the ecological risk of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in a highly anthropogenically disturbed lake-Baiyangdian Lake. Calibration and validation results indicated that the model can adequately describe the dynamics of 18 biological populations. Sensitivity analysis results suggested that the model is highly sensitive to temperature limitation. PBDEs risk estimate results demonstrate that estimated risk for natural ecosystems cannot be fully explained by single species toxicity data alone. The AQUATOX model could provide a good basis in ascertaining ecological protection levels of "chemicals of concern" for aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, AQUATOX can potentially be used to provide necessary information corresponding to early warning and rapid forecasting of pollutant transport and fate in the management of chemicals that put aquatic ecosystems at risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Functional Movement Screen and Injury Risk: Association and Predictive Value in Active Men.

PubMed

Bushman, Timothy T; Grier, Tyson L; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; Anderson, Morgan K; North, William J; Jones, Bruce H

2016-02-01

The Functional Movement Screen (FMS) is a series of 7 tests used to assess the injury risk in active populations. To determine the association of the FMS with the injury risk, assess predictive values, and identify optimal cut points using 3 injury types. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Physically active male soldiers aged 18 to 57 years (N = 2476) completed the FMS. Demographic and fitness data were collected by survey. Medical record data for overuse injuries, traumatic injuries, and any injury 6 months after the FMS assessment were obtained. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated along with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) to determine the area under the curve (AUC) and identify optimal cut points for the risk assessment. Risks, risk ratios (RRs), odds ratios (ORs), and 95% CIs were calculated to assess injury risks. Soldiers who scored ≤14 were at a greater risk for injuries compared with those who scored >14 using the composite score for overuse injuries (RR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.63-2.09), traumatic injuries (RR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.03-1.54), and any injury (RR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.45-1.77). When controlling for other known injury risk factors, multivariate logistic regression analysis identified poor FMS performance (OR [score ≤14/19-21], 2.00; 95% CI, 1.42-2.81) as an independent risk factor for injuries. A cut point of ≤14 registered low measures of predictive value for all 3 injury types (sensitivity, 28%-37%; PPV, 19%-52%; AUC, 54%-61%). Shifting the injury risk cut point of ≤14 to the optimal cut points indicated by the ROC did not appreciably improve sensitivity or the PPV. Although poor FMS performance was associated with a higher risk of injuries, it displayed low sensitivity, PPV, and AUC. On the basis of these findings, the use of the FMS to screen for the injury risk is not recommended in this population because of the low predictive value and misclassification of the injury risk. © 2015 The Author(s).

Risk prediction models for selection of lung cancer screening candidates: A retrospective validation study

PubMed Central

ten Haaf, Kevin; Tammemägi, Martin C.; Han, Summer S.; Kong, Chung Yin; Plevritis, Sylvia K.; de Koning, Harry J.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

2017-01-01

Background Selection of candidates for lung cancer screening based on individual risk has been proposed as an alternative to criteria based on age and cumulative smoking exposure (pack-years). Nine previously established risk models were assessed for their ability to identify those most likely to develop or die from lung cancer. All models considered age and various aspects of smoking exposure (smoking status, smoking duration, cigarettes per day, pack-years smoked, time since smoking cessation) as risk predictors. In addition, some models considered factors such as gender, race, ethnicity, education, body mass index, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema, personal history of cancer, personal history of pneumonia, and family history of lung cancer. Methods and findings Retrospective analyses were performed on 53,452 National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) participants (1,925 lung cancer cases and 884 lung cancer deaths) and 80,672 Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) ever-smoking participants (1,463 lung cancer cases and 915 lung cancer deaths). Six-year lung cancer incidence and mortality risk predictions were assessed for (1) calibration (graphically) by comparing the agreement between the predicted and the observed risks, (2) discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) between individuals with and without lung cancer (death), and (3) clinical usefulness (net benefit in decision curve analysis) by identifying risk thresholds at which applying risk-based eligibility would improve lung cancer screening efficacy. To further assess performance, risk model sensitivities and specificities in the PLCO were compared to those based on the NLST eligibility criteria. Calibration was satisfactory, but discrimination ranged widely (AUCs from 0.61 to 0.81). The models outperformed the NLST eligibility criteria over a substantial range of risk thresholds in decision curve analysis, with a higher sensitivity for all models and a slightly higher specificity for some models. The PLCOm2012, Bach, and Two-Stage Clonal Expansion incidence models had the best overall performance, with AUCs >0.68 in the NLST and >0.77 in the PLCO. These three models had the highest sensitivity and specificity for predicting 6-y lung cancer incidence in the PLCO chest radiography arm, with sensitivities >79.8% and specificities >62.3%. In contrast, the NLST eligibility criteria yielded a sensitivity of 71.4% and a specificity of 62.2%. Limitations of this study include the lack of identification of optimal risk thresholds, as this requires additional information on the long-term benefits (e.g., life-years gained and mortality reduction) and harms (e.g., overdiagnosis) of risk-based screening strategies using these models. In addition, information on some predictor variables included in the risk prediction models was not available. Conclusions Selection of individuals for lung cancer screening using individual risk is superior to selection criteria based on age and pack-years alone. The benefits, harms, and feasibility of implementing lung cancer screening policies based on risk prediction models should be assessed and compared with those of current recommendations. PMID:28376113

Primary treatments for clinically localized prostate cancer: a comprehensive lifetime cost-utility analysis

PubMed Central

Cooperberg, Matthew R.; Ramakrishna, Naren R.; Duff, Steven B.; Hughes, Kathleen E.; Sadownik, Sara; Smith, Joseph A.; Tewari, Ashutosh K.

2012-01-01

Objectives To characterize the costs and outcomes associated with radical prostatectomy (open, laparoscopic, or robot-assisted) and radiation therapy (dose-escalated 3-dimensional conformal radiation, intensity-modulated radiation, brachytherapy, or combination), using a comprehensive, lifetime decision analytic model. Patients and Methods A Markov model was constructed to follow hypothetical men with low-, intermediate-, and high-risk prostate cancer over their lifetimes following primary treatment; probabilities of outcomes were based on an exhaustive literature search yielding 232 unique publications. Patients could experience remission, recurrence, salvage treatment, metastasis, death from prostate cancer, and death from other causes. Utilities for each health state were determined, and disutilities were applied for complications and toxicities of treatment. Costs were determined from the U.S. payer perspective, with incorporation of patient costs in a sensitivity analysis. Results Differences in quality-adjusted life years across modalities were modest, ranging from 10.3 to 11.3 for low-risk patients, 9.6 to 10.5 for intermediate-risk patients, and 7.8 to 9.3 for high-risk patients. There were no statistically significant differences among surgical modalities, which tended to be more effective than radiation modalities, with the exception of combination external beam + brachytherapy for high-risk disease. Radiation modalities were consistently more expensive than surgical modalities; costs ranged from $19,901 (robot-assisted prostatectomy for low-risk disease) to $50,276 (combination radiation for high-risk disease). These findings were robust to an extensive set of sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Our analysis found small differences in outcomes and substantial differences in payer and patient costs across treatment alternatives. These findings may inform future policy discussions regarding strategies to improve efficiency of treatment selection for localized prostate cancer. PMID:23279038

Prevalence of and risk factors for latex sensitization in patients with spina bifida.

PubMed

Bernardini, R; Novembre, E; Lombardi, E; Mezzetti, P; Cianferoni, A; Danti, A D; Mercurella, A; Vierucci, A

1998-11-01

We determined the prevalence of and risk factors for latex sensitization in patients with spina bifida. A total of 59 consecutive subjects 2 to 40 years old with spina bifida answered a questionnaire, and underwent a latex skin prick test and determination of serum IgE specific for latex by RAST CAP radioimmunoassay. We also noted the relationships of total serum IgE skin prick tests to common air and food allergens. In addition, skin prick plus prick tests were also done with fresh foods, including kiwi, pear, orange, almond, pineapple, apple, tomato and banana. Latex sensitization was present in 15 patients (25%) according to the presence of IgE specific to latex, as detected by a skin prick test in 9 and/or RAST CAP in 13. Five latex sensitized patients (33.3%) had clinical manifestations, such as urticaria, conjuctivitis, angioedema, rhinitis and bronchial asthma, while using a latex glove and inflating a latex balloon. Atopy was present in 21 patients (35.6%). In 14 patients (23%) 1 or more skin tests were positive for fresh foods using a prick plus prick technique. Tomato, kiwi, and pear were the most common skin test positive foods. Univariate analysis revealed that a history of 5 or more operations, atopy and positive prick plus prick tests results for pear and kiwi were significantly associated with latex sensitization. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that only atopy and a history of 5 or more operations were significantly and independently associated with latex sensitization. A fourth of the patients with spina bifida were sensitized to latex. Atopy and an elevated number of operations were significant and independent predictors of latex sensitization in these cases.

Low maternal sensitivity at 6 months of age predicts higher BMI in 48 month old girls but not boys.

PubMed

Wendland, Barbara E; Atkinson, Leslie; Steiner, Meir; Fleming, Alison S; Pencharz, Paul; Moss, Ellen; Gaudreau, Hélène; Silveira, Patricia P; Arenovich, Tamara; Matthews, Stephen G; Meaney, Michael J; Levitan, Robert D

2014-11-01

Large population-based studies suggest that systematic measures of maternal sensitivity predict later risk for overweight and obesity. More work is needed to establish the developmental timing and potential moderators of this association. The current study examined the association between maternal sensitivity at 6 months of age and BMI z score measures at 48 months of age, and whether sex moderated this association. Longitudinal Canadian cohort of children from birth (the MAVAN project). This analysis was based on a dataset of 223 children (115 boys, 108 girls) who had structured assessments of maternal sensitivity at 6 months of age and 48-month BMI data available. Mother-child interactions were videotaped and systematically scored using the Maternal Behaviour Q-Sort (MBQS)-25 items, a standardized measure of maternal sensitivity. Linear mixed-effects models and logistic regression examined whether MBQS scores at 6 months predicted BMI at 48 months, controlling for other covariates. After controlling for weight-relevant covariates, there was a significant sex by MBQS interaction (P=0.015) in predicting 48 month BMI z. Further analysis revealed a strong negative association between MBQS scores and BMI in girls (P=0.01) but not boys (P=0.72). Logistic regression confirmed that in girls only, low maternal sensitivity was associated with the higher BMI categories as defined by the WHO (i.e. "at risk for overweight" or above). A significant association between low maternal sensitivity at 6 months of age and high body mass indices was found in girls but not boys at 48 months of age. These data suggest for the first time that the link between low maternal sensitivity and early BMI z may differ between boys and girls. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial distribution variation and probabilistic risk assessment of exposure to chromium in ground water supplies; a case study in the east of Iran.

PubMed

Fallahzadeh, Reza Ali; Khosravi, Rasoul; Dehdashti, Bahare; Ghahramani, Esmail; Omidi, Fariborz; Adli, Abolfazl; Miri, Mohammad

2018-05-01

A high concentration of chromium (VI) in groundwater can threaten the health of consumers. In this study, the concentration of chromium (VI) in 18 drinking water wells in Birjand, Iran, s was investigated over a period of two yearsNon-carcinogenic risk assessment, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis as well as the most important variables in determining the non-carcinogenic risk for three age groups including children, teens, and adults, were performed using the Monte Carlo simulations technique. The northern and southern regions of the study area had the highest and lowest chromium concentrations, respectively. The chromium concentrations in 16.66% of the samples in an area of 604.79 km2 were more than World Health Organization (WHO) guideline (0.05 mg/L). The Moran's index analysis showed that the distribution of contamination is a cluster. The Hazard Index (HI) values for the children and teens groups were 1.02 and 2.02, respectively, which was more than 1. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the most important factor in calculating the HQ was the concentration of chromium in the consumed water. HQ values higher than 1 represent a high risk for the children group, which should be controlled by removing the chromium concentration of the drinking water. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thiopurine S-methyltransferase testing for averting drug toxicity: a meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy

PubMed Central

Zur, RM; Roy, LM; Ito, S; Beyene, J; Carew, C; Ungar, WJ

2016-01-01

Thiopurine S-methyltransferase (TPMT) deficiency increases the risk of serious adverse events in persons receiving thiopurines. The objective was to synthesize reported sensitivity and specificity of TPMT phenotyping and genotyping using a latent class hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic meta-analysis. In 27 studies, pooled sensitivity and specificity of phenotyping for deficient individuals was 75.9% (95% credible interval (CrI), 58.3–87.0%) and 98.9% (96.3–100%), respectively. For genotype tests evaluating TPMT*2 and TPMT*3, sensitivity and specificity was 90.4% (79.1–99.4%) and 100.0% (99.9–100%), respectively. For individuals with deficient or intermediate activity, phenotype sensitivity and specificity was 91.3% (86.4–95.5%) and 92.6% (86.5–96.6%), respectively. For genotype tests evaluating TPMT*2 and TPMT*3, sensitivity and specificity was 88.9% (81.6–97.5%) and 99.2% (98.4–99.9%), respectively. Genotyping has higher sensitivity as long as TPMT*2 and TPMT*3 are tested. Both approaches display high specificity. Latent class meta-analysis is a useful method for synthesizing diagnostic test performance data for clinical practice guidelines. PMID:27217052

Incremental diagnostic quality gain of CTA over V/Q scan in the assessment of pulmonary embolism by means of a Wells score Bayesian model: results from the ACDC collaboration.

PubMed

Cochon, Laila; McIntyre, Kaitlin; Nicolás, José M; Baez, Amado Alejandro

2017-08-01

Our objective was to evaluate the diagnostic value of computed tomography angiography (CTA) and ventilation perfusion (V/Q) scan in the assessment of pulmonary embolism (PE) by means of a Bayesian statistical model. Wells criteria defined pretest probability. Sensitivity and specificity of CTA and V/Q scan for PE were derived from pooled meta-analysis data. Likelihood ratios calculated for CTA and V/Q were inserted in the nomogram. Absolute (ADG) and relative diagnostic gains (RDG) were analyzed comparing post- and pretest probability. Comparative gain difference was calculated for CTA ADG over V/Q scan integrating ANOVA p value set at 0.05. The sensitivity for CT was 86.0% (95% CI: 80.2%, 92.1%) and specificity of 93.7% (95% CI: 91.1%, 96.3%). The V/Q scan yielded a sensitivity of 96% (95% CI: 95%, 97%) and a specificity of 97% (95% CI: 96%, 98%). Bayes nomogram results for CTA were low risk and yielded a posttest probability of 71.1%, an ADG of 56.1%, and an RDG of 374%, moderate-risk posttest probability was 85.1%, an ADG of 56.1%, and an RDG of 193.4%, and high-risk posttest probability was 95.2%, an ADG of 36.2%, and an RDG of 61.35%. The comparative gain difference for low-risk population was 46.1%; in moderate-risk 41.6%; and in high-risk a 22.1% superiority. ANOVA analysis for LR+ and LR- showed no significant difference (p = 0.8745, p = 0.9841 respectively). This Bayesian model demonstrated a superiority of CTA when compared to V/Q scan for the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism. Low-risk patients are recognized to have a superior overall comparative gain favoring CTA.

Sensitivity and Bias in Decision-Making under Risk: Evaluating the Perception of Reward, Its Probability and Value

PubMed Central

Sharp, Madeleine E.; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J.; Barton, Jason J. S.

2012-01-01

Background There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. Objective We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Design/Methods Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Results Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a ‘risk premium’ of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. Conclusions This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia. PMID:22493669

Personal use of hair dyes and the risk of bladder cancer: results of a meta-analysis.

PubMed Central

Huncharek, Michael; Kupelnick, Bruce

2005-01-01

OBJECTIVE: This study examined the methodology of observational studies that explored an association between personal use of hair dye products and the risk of bladder cancer. METHODS: Data were pooled from epidemiological studies using a general variance-based meta-analytic method that employed confidence intervals. The outcome of interest was a summary relative risk (RRs) reflecting the risk of bladder cancer development associated with use of hair dye products vs. non-use. Sensitivity analyses were performed to explain any observed statistical heterogeneity and to explore the influence of specific study characteristics of the summary estimate of effect. RESULTS: Initially combining homogenous data from six case-control and one cohort study yielded a non-significant RR of 1.01 (0.92, 1.11), suggesting no association between hair dye use and bladder cancer development. Sensitivity analyses examining the influence of hair dye type, color, and study design on this suspected association showed that uncontrolled confounding and design limitations contributed to a spurious non-significant summary RR. The sensitivity analyses yielded statistically significant RRs ranging from 1.22 (1.11, 1.51) to 1.50 (1.30, 1.98), indicating that personal use of hair dye products increases bladder cancer risk by 22% to 50% vs. non-use. CONCLUSION: The available epidemiological data suggest an association between personal use of hair dye products and increased risk of bladder cancer. PMID:15736329

Sensitivity and bias in decision-making under risk: evaluating the perception of reward, its probability and value.

PubMed

Sharp, Madeleine E; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J; Barton, Jason J S

2012-01-01

There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a 'risk premium' of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia.

Validation of Version 3.0 of the Breast Cancer Genetics Referral Screening Tool (B-RST™).

PubMed

Bellcross, Cecelia; Hermstad, April; Tallo, Christine; Stanislaw, Christine

2018-05-08

Despite increased awareness of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer among clinicians and the public, many BRCA1/2 mutation carriers remain unaware of their risk status. The Breast Cancer Genetics Referral Screening Tool (B-RST™) was created and validated to easily identify individuals at increased risk for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer for referral to cancer genetics services. The purpose of this study was to revise B-RST™ to maximize sensitivity against BRCA1/2 mutation status. We analyzed pedigrees of 277 individuals who had undergone BRCA1/2 testing to determine modifications to the B-RST™ 2.0 algorithm that would maximize sensitivity for mutations, while maintaining simplicity. We used McNemar's chi-square test to compare validation measures between the revised version (3.0) and the 2.0 version. Algorithmic changes made to B-RST™ 2.0 increased the sensitivity against BRCA1/2 mutation analysis from 71.1 to 94.0% (P < 0.0001). While specificity decreased, all screen-positive individuals were appropriate for cancer genetics referral, the primary purpose of the tool. Despite calls for BRCA1/2 population screening, there remains a critical need to identify those most at risk who should receive cancer genetics services. B-RST™ version 3.0 demonstrates high sensitivity for BRCA1/2 mutations, yet remains a simple and quick screening tool for at-risk individuals.

Work as a street vendor, associated traffic-related air pollution exposures and risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes in Accra, Ghana.

PubMed

Amegah, Adeladza Kofi; Jaakkola, Jouni J K

2014-03-01

Street vending, a dominant occupation in urban areas of developing countries exposes the vendors to several environmental pollutants. We investigated whether work as street vendor impairs foetal growth and shortens gestational duration, and evaluated to what extent exposure to traffic-related air pollution is responsible for these adverse effects. A cross-sectional study was conducted among mothers and their newborns accessing postnatal services at the Korle Bu Teaching Hospital in Accra, Ghana in 2010, focusing on 105 street vendors and a reference group of 281 mothers. We categorized exposure to traffic-related air pollution on the basis of street vending activity patterns and traffic density in the working area. Multivariate linear regression analysis adjusting for age, social class, marital status and gravidity of mothers, sex of neonate, and indoor air pollution, indicated a 177 g (95% CI: 324, 31) reduction in birth weight among street vendors. Sensitivity analysis performed by restricting the analysis to term births showed further reductions in birth weight. Generalized linear models adjusting for confounders indicated a 35% (risk ratio (RR)=1.35; 95% CI: 0.87, 2.12) increased risk of LBW, albeit statistically not significant. LBW risk increased in the sensitivity analysis but was also not statistically significant. The risk of PTB was not associated with street vending (RR=1.03; 95% CI: 0.67, 1.58). The exposure-response relations observed were not consistent. Moderate activity patterns and high traffic density jointly was associated with a statistically significant 84% (RR=1.84; 95% CI: 1.05, 3.24) increased risk of LBW. Street vending during pregnancy is a determinant of average foetal growth and risk of LBW. More research is required to further quantify their effects on pregnancy outcomes and safeguard maternal and perinatal health in developing countries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Application of multi-criteria decision-making to risk prioritisation in tidal energy developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolios, Athanasios; Read, George; Ioannou, Anastasia

2016-01-01

This paper presents an analytical multi-criterion analysis for the prioritisation of risks for the development of tidal energy projects. After a basic identification of risks throughout the project and relevant stakeholders in the UK, classified through a political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental analysis, relevant questionnaires provided scores to each risk and corresponding weights for each of the different sectors. Employing an extended technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution as well as the weighted sum method based on the data obtained, the risks identified are ranked based on their criticality, drawing attention of the industry in mitigating the ones scoring higher. Both methods were modified to take averages at different stages of the analysis in order to observe the effects on the final risk ranking. A sensitivity analysis of the results was also carried out with regard to the weighting factors given to the perceived expertise of participants, with different results being obtained whether a linear, squared or square root regression is used. Results of the study show that academics and industry have conflicting opinions with regard to the perception of the most critical risks.

SU-E-T-628: Predicted Risk of Post-Irradiation Cerebral Necrosis in Pediatric Brain Cancer Patients: A Treatment Planning Comparison of Proton Vs. Photon Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Freund, D; Zhang, R; Sanders, M

Purpose: Post-irradiation cerebral necrosis (PICN) is a severe late effect that can Result from brain cancers treatment using radiation therapy. The purpose of this study was to compare the treatment plans and predicted risk of PICN after volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) to the risk after passively scattered proton therapy (PSPT) and intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) in a cohort of pediatric patients. Methods: Thirteen pediatric patients with varying age and sex were selected for this study. A clinical treatment volume (CTV) was constructed for 8 glioma patients and 5 ependymoma patients. Prescribed dose was 54 Gy over 30 fractionsmore » to the planning volume. Dosimetric endpoints were compared between VMAT and proton plans. The normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) following VMAT and proton therapy planning was also calculated using PICN as the biological endpoint. Sensitivity tests were performed to determine if predicted risk of PICN was sensitive to positional errors, proton range errors and selection of risk models. Results: Both PSPT and IMPT plans resulted in a significant increase in the maximum dose and reduction in the total brain volume irradiated to low doses compared with the VMAT plans. The average ratios of NTCP between PSPT and VMAT were 0.56 and 0.38 for glioma and ependymoma patients respectively and the average ratios of NTCP between IMPT and VMAT were 0.67 and 0.68 for glioma and ependymoma plans respectively. Sensitivity test revealed that predicted ratios of risk were insensitive to range and positional errors but varied with risk model selection. Conclusion: Both PSPT and IMPT plans resulted in a decrease in the predictive risk of necrosis for the pediatric plans studied in this work. Sensitivity analysis upheld the qualitative findings of the risk models used in this study, however more accurate models that take into account dose and volume are needed.« less

Guide to analyzing investment options using TWIGS.

Treesearch

Charles R Blinn; Dietmar W. Rose; Monique L. Belli

1988-01-01

Describes methods for analyzing economic return of simulated stand management alternatives in TWIGS. Defines and discusses net present value, equivalent annual income, soil expectation value, and real vs. nominal analyses. Discusses risk and sensitivity analysis when comparing alternatives.

3MRA UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation discusses the Multimedia, Multipathway, Multireceptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) modeling system. The outline of the presentation is: modeling system overview - 3MRA versions; 3MRA version 1.0; national-scale assessment dimensionality; SuperMUSE: windows-based super...

32 CFR 701.117 - Changes to PA systems of records.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... wishing to create a new PA system of records must conduct a risk analysis of the proposed system to consider the sensitivity and use of the records; present and projected threats and vulnerabilities; and...

Quantitative influence of risk factors on blood glucose level.

PubMed

Chen, Songjing; Luo, Senlin; Pan, Limin; Zhang, Tiemei; Han, Longfei; Zhao, Haixiu

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to quantitatively analyze the influence of risk factors on the blood glucose level, and to provide theory basis for understanding the characteristics of blood glucose change and confirming the intervention index for type 2 diabetes. The quantitative method is proposed to analyze the influence of risk factors on blood glucose using back propagation (BP) neural network. Ten risk factors are screened first. Then the cohort is divided into nine groups by gender and age. According to the minimum error principle, nine BP models are trained respectively. The quantitative values of the influence of different risk factors on the blood glucose change can be obtained by sensitivity calculation. The experiment results indicate that weight is the leading cause of blood glucose change (0.2449). The second factors are cholesterol, age and triglyceride. The total ratio of these four factors reaches to 77% of the nine screened risk factors. And the sensitivity sequences can provide judgment method for individual intervention. This method can be applied to risk factors quantitative analysis of other diseases and potentially used for clinical practitioners to identify high risk populations for type 2 diabetes as well as other disease.

Estimating causal contrasts involving intermediate variables in the presence of selection bias.

PubMed

Valeri, Linda; Coull, Brent A

2016-11-20

An important goal across the biomedical and social sciences is the quantification of the role of intermediate factors in explaining how an exposure exerts an effect on an outcome. Selection bias has the potential to severely undermine the validity of inferences on direct and indirect causal effects in observational as well as in randomized studies. The phenomenon of selection may arise through several mechanisms, and we here focus on instances of missing data. We study the sign and magnitude of selection bias in the estimates of direct and indirect effects when data on any of the factors involved in the analysis is either missing at random or not missing at random. Under some simplifying assumptions, the bias formulae can lead to nonparametric sensitivity analyses. These sensitivity analyses can be applied to causal effects on the risk difference and risk-ratio scales irrespectively of the estimation approach employed. To incorporate parametric assumptions, we also develop a sensitivity analysis for selection bias in mediation analysis in the spirit of the expectation-maximization algorithm. The approaches are applied to data from a health disparities study investigating the role of stage at diagnosis on racial disparities in colorectal cancer survival. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

ROLE OF INSULIN SENSITIZERS ON CARDIOVASCULAR RISK FACTORS IN POLYCYSTIC OVARIAN SYNDROME: A META-ANALYSIS.

PubMed

Thethi, Tina K; Katalenich, Bonnie; Nagireddy, Prathima; Chabbra, Pankdeep; Kuhadiya, Nitesh; Fonseca, Vivian

2015-06-01

Polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) is associated with an increase in cardiovascular (CV) risk factors such as insulin resistance, with accompanying hyperinsulinemia and hyperlipidemia, which are predisposing factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus and CV disease. The aim of this meta-analysis is to examine the effect of insulin sensitizers on clinical and biochemical features of PCOS and risk factors for CV disease. A systematic literature review was conducted, and randomized controlled clinical trials were identified by a search of bibliographic databases: Medline database (from 1966 forward), EMBASE (January 1985 forward), and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Reviews of reference lists further identified candidate trials. Data was independently abstracted in duplicate by 2 investigators using a standardized data-collection form. Articles without a comparison group and randomization allocation were excluded. Reviewers worked independently and in duplicate to determine the methodological quality of trials, then collected data on patient characteristics, interventions, and outcomes. Of 455 studies, 44 trials were eligible. A random effects model was used. Significant unadjusted results favoring treatment with insulin sensitizers were obtained for body mass index (BMI) (effect size [ES] of 0.58), waist to hip ratio (WHR) (ES of 0.02), low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (ES of 0.11), fasting insulin (ES of 2.82), fasting glucose (ES of 0.10), free testosterone (ES of 1.88), and androstenedione level (ES of 0.76). Treatment with insulin sensitizers in women with PCOS results in improvement in CV factors such as BMI, WHR, LDL-C, fasting insulin, glucose, free testosterone, and androstenedione.

Cumulative psychosocial risk, parental socialization, and child cognitive functioning: A longitudinal cascade model.

PubMed

Wade, Mark; Madigan, Sheri; Plamondon, Andre; Rodrigues, Michelle; Browne, Dillon; Jenkins, Jennifer M

2018-06-01

Previous studies have demonstrated that various psychosocial risks are associated with poor cognitive functioning in children, and these risks frequently cluster together. In the current longitudinal study, we tested a model in which it was hypothesized that cumulative psychosocial adversity of mothers would have deleterious effects on children's cognitive functioning by compromising socialization processes within families (i.e., parental competence). A prospective community birth cohort of 501 families was recruited when children were newborns. At this time, mothers reported on their current psychosocial circumstances (socioeconomic status, teen parenthood, depression, etc.), which were summed into a cumulative risk score. Families were followed up at 18 months and 3 years, at which point maternal reflective capacity and cognitive sensitivity were measured, respectively. Child cognition (executive functioning, theory of mind, and language ability) was assessed at age 4.5 using age-appropriate observational and standardized tasks. Analyses controlled for child age, gender, number of children in the home, number of years married, and mothers' history of adversity. The results revealed significant declines in child cognition as well as maternal reflective capacity and cognitive sensitivity as the number of psychosocial risks increased. Moreover, longitudinal path analysis showed significant indirect effects from cumulative risk to all three cognitive outcomes via reflective capacity and cognitive sensitivity. Findings suggest that cumulative risk of mothers may partially account for child cognitive difficulties in various domains by disrupting key parental socialization competencies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

[A strategy for assessing environmental influence on airway allergy using a regression binary tree-based method].

PubMed

Yoshioka, Fumi; Azuma, Emiko; Nakajima, Takae; Hashimoto, Masafumi; Toyoshima, Kyoichiro; Komachi, Yoshio

2004-08-01

To clarify the living environment factors that increase the risk of allergic sensitization to house dust mites, we applied a regression binary tree-based method (CART, Classification & Regression Trees) to an epidemiological study on airway allergy. The utility of the tree map in personal sanitary guidance for preventing allergic sensitization was examined with respect to feasibility and validity. A questionnaire was given to 386 healthy adult women, asking them about their individual living environments. Also, blood samples were collected to measure Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus (Dp)-specific IgE, the presence/absence of Dp-sensitization being expressed as positive/negative. The questionnaire consisted of nine items on (1) home ventilation by keeping windows open, (2) personal or family smoking habits, (3) use of air conditioners in hot weather, (4) type of flooring (tatami/wooden/carpet) in the living room, (5) visible mold proliferation in the kitchen, (6) type of housing (concrete/wooden), (7) residential area (heavy or light traffic area) (8) heating system (use of unventilated combustion appliances), and (9) frequency of cleaning (every day or less often). There also were queries on the past history of airway allergic diseases, such as bronchial asthma and allergic rhinitis. CART and a multivariate logistic regression analysis (MLRA) were performed. The subjects were first classified into two groups, with and without a history of airway allergic diseases (Groups WPH and WOPH). In each group, the involvement of living environment factors in Dp-sensitization was examined using CART and MLRA. In the MLRA study, individual living environment factors showed promotional or suppressive effects on Dp-sensitization with differences between the two groups. With respect to the CART results, the two groups were first split by the factor that had the most significant odds ratio for MLRA. In Group WPH, which had a Dp-sensitization risk of 19.5%, the first split was by the factor of visible mold proliferation in the kitchen into the factor-present group with a risk value of 45.5% and the factor-absent group with 13.5%. The mold proliferation group was split with reference to frequent cleaning, and the risk rose to 75% in the factor-absent group and to 100% when family smoking habits were reported. Group WOPH (the risk: 10.8%) was first split into two groups according to the use of air conditioners in hot weather for more than 6 hours a day or less, which showed risk values of 16.7% and 6.9%, respectively. The risk of the group that intensively used air conditioners fell to 8.3% with tatami as flooring in the living room, and, if others, rose to 20.8%. The risk of the factor-lacking group fell to 4.0% without wooden flooring. CART analysis enables us to express complex relationships between living environment factors and Dp-sensitization simply by a binary regression tree, pointing to preventive strategies that can be flexibly changed according to the individual living environments of the subjects.

Systems Architectures for a Tactical Naval Command and Control System

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

Supplement TST Time-sensitive Targeting TTP Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures WTP Weapons-target pairing xix GLOSSARY Analysis...target pairings ( WTPs ) and are presented to OTC [a]. 24. OTC conducts risk assessment of engagement options [a]. 25. OTC orders confirmed surface...engagement options are generated through weapon- target pairings ( WTPs ) and are presented to OTC [a]. 24. OTC conducts risk assessment of engagement

The impact of missing trauma data on predicting massive transfusion

PubMed Central

Trickey, Amber W.; Fox, Erin E.; del Junco, Deborah J.; Ning, Jing; Holcomb, John B.; Brasel, Karen J.; Cohen, Mitchell J.; Schreiber, Martin A.; Bulger, Eileen M.; Phelan, Herb A.; Alarcon, Louis H.; Myers, John G.; Muskat, Peter; Cotton, Bryan A.; Wade, Charles E.; Rahbar, Mohammad H.

2013-01-01

INTRODUCTION Missing data are inherent in clinical research and may be especially problematic for trauma studies. This study describes a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of missing data on clinical risk prediction algorithms. Three blood transfusion prediction models were evaluated utilizing an observational trauma dataset with valid missing data. METHODS The PRospective Observational Multi-center Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) study included patients requiring ≥ 1 unit of red blood cells (RBC) at 10 participating U.S. Level I trauma centers from July 2009 – October 2010. Physiologic, laboratory, and treatment data were collected prospectively up to 24h after hospital admission. Subjects who received ≥ 10 RBC units within 24h of admission were classified as massive transfusion (MT) patients. Correct classification percentages for three MT prediction models were evaluated using complete case analysis and multiple imputation. A sensitivity analysis for missing data was conducted to determine the upper and lower bounds for correct classification percentages. RESULTS PROMMTT enrolled 1,245 subjects. MT was received by 297 patients (24%). Missing percentage ranged from 2.2% (heart rate) to 45% (respiratory rate). Proportions of complete cases utilized in the MT prediction models ranged from 41% to 88%. All models demonstrated similar correct classification percentages using complete case analysis and multiple imputation. In the sensitivity analysis, correct classification upper-lower bound ranges per model were 4%, 10%, and 12%. Predictive accuracy for all models using PROMMTT data was lower than reported in the original datasets. CONCLUSIONS Evaluating the accuracy clinical prediction models with missing data can be misleading, especially with many predictor variables and moderate levels of missingness per variable. The proposed sensitivity analysis describes the influence of missing data on risk prediction algorithms. Reporting upper/lower bounds for percent correct classification may be more informative than multiple imputation, which provided similar results to complete case analysis in this study. PMID:23778514

Meta-analysis of the rs2075650 polymorphism and risk of Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

He, Ya; Li, Chen; Yang, Ying; Li, Yizhou; Wang, Yuan; Yang, Hua; Jin, Tianbo; Chen, Songsheng

2016-10-01

Several researchers have suggested that the rs2075650 polymorphism is significantly associated with an increased risk of developing Alzheimer disease (AD) in European. However, some others found inconsistent results in Asian (Chinese and Korean). We addressed the controversy through performing a meta-analysis of the relationship between rs2075650 in TOMM40 (translocase of outer mitochondrial membrane 40 homologue) and Alzheimer disease. We selected eight case-control studies involving 4290 cases of Alzheimer disease and 5556 healthy individuals. The association between the TOMM40 rs2075650 polymorphism and Alzheimer disease was examined by overall odds ratio (OR) with a 95 % confidence interval (CI). We used different genetic model analysis, sensitivity analysis, and assessments of bias in our meta-analysis. The pooled analysis showed the inconsistent results that TOMM40 rs2075650 polymorphism was associated with Alzheimer disease in European and Korean population in all genetic models, but there was no significant association between the TOMM40 rs2075650 polymorphism and Alzheimer disease risk in Chinese population. We conclude that rs2075650 in TOMM40 gene may increase the risk of Alzheimer disease.

Risk analysis of information security in a mobile instant messaging and presence system for healthcare.

PubMed

Bønes, Erlend; Hasvold, Per; Henriksen, Eva; Strandenaes, Thomas

2007-09-01

Instant messaging (IM) is suited for immediate communication because messages are delivered almost in real time. Results from studies of IM use in enterprise work settings make us believe that IM based services may prove useful also within the healthcare sector. However, today's public instant messaging services do not have the level of information security required for adoption of IM in healthcare. We proposed MedIMob, our own architecture for a secure enterprise IM service for use in healthcare. MedIMob supports IM clients on mobile devices in addition to desktop based clients. Security threats were identified in a risk analysis of the MedIMob architecture. The risk analysis process consists of context identification, threat identification, analysis of consequences and likelihood, risk evaluation, and proposals for risk treatment. The risk analysis revealed a number of potential threats to the information security of a service like this. Many of the identified threats are general when dealing with mobile devices and sensitive data; others are threats which are more specific to our service and architecture. Individual threats identified in the risks analysis are discussed and possible counter measures presented. The risk analysis showed that most of the proposed risk treatment measures must be implemented to obtain an acceptable risk level; among others blocking much of the additional functionality of the smartphone. To conclude on the usefulness of this IM service, it will be evaluated in a trial study of the human-computer interaction. Further work also includes an improved design of the proposed MedIMob architecture. 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd

Risk of Acute Liver Failure in Patients With Drug-Induced Liver Injury: Evaluation of Hy's Law and a New Prognostic Model.

PubMed

Lo Re, Vincent; Haynes, Kevin; Forde, Kimberly A; Goldberg, David S; Lewis, James D; Carbonari, Dena M; Leidl, Kimberly B F; Reddy, K Rajender; Nezamzadeh, Melissa S; Roy, Jason; Sha, Daohang; Marks, Amy R; De Boer, Jolanda; Schneider, Jennifer L; Strom, Brian L; Corley, Douglas A

2015-12-01

Few studies have evaluated the ability of laboratory tests to predict risk of acute liver failure (ALF) among patients with drug-induced liver injury (DILI). We aimed to develop a highly sensitive model to identify DILI patients at increased risk of ALF. We compared its performance with that of Hy's Law, which predicts severity of DILI based on levels of alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase and total bilirubin, and validated the model in a separate sample. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 15,353 Kaiser Permanente Northern California members diagnosed with DILI from 2004 through 2010, liver aminotransferase levels above the upper limit of normal, and no pre-existing liver disease. Thirty ALF events were confirmed by medical record review. Logistic regression was used to develop prognostic models for ALF based on laboratory results measured at DILI diagnosis. External validation was performed in a sample of 76 patients with DILI at the University of Pennsylvania. Hy's Law identified patients that developed ALF with a high level of specificity (0.92) and negative predictive value (0.99), but low level of sensitivity (0.68) and positive predictive value (0.02). The model we developed, comprising data on platelet count and total bilirubin level, identified patients with ALF with a C statistic of 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.96) and enabled calculation of a risk score (Drug-Induced Liver Toxicity ALF Score). We found a cut-off score that identified patients at high risk patients for ALF with a sensitivity value of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.71-0.99) and a specificity value of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.77). This cut-off score identified patients at high risk for ALF with a high level of sensitivity (0.89; 95% CI, 0.52-1.00) in the validation analysis. Hy's Law identifies patients with DILI at high risk for ALF with low sensitivity but high specificity. We developed a model (the Drug-Induced Liver Toxicity ALF Score) based on platelet count and total bilirubin level that identifies patients at increased risk for ALF with high sensitivity. Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Direct and inverse modelling for environmental risk assessment and emission control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penenko, V.; Baklanov, A.; Tsvetova, E.; Mahura, A.

2009-04-01

A concept of environmental modelling and its applications for Siberian regions are presented. The regions are considered both as sources and receptors of pollution as elements of the global climatic system. A methodology has been developed to build the combined methods of forward and inverse modelling for the problems of the air quality, environmental risk assessment and control. It is based on variational principles and methods of adjoint sensitivity theory. This allows obtaining the optimal numerical schemes and universal algorithm of the forward-inverse modelling. Following the concept, the functionals (describing the generalised characteristics of the processes, data, and models) are considered together with the basic model components. To combine all these elements in the frames of forward and inverse relations, we suppose that each of them may contain uncertainty. In this case, it is naturally to formulate a weak-constraint variational principle for the augmented functional which contains the model description in the form of integral identity and the cost functional including the total measure of all uncertainties. The stationary conditions for the augmented functional with respect to the variations its functional arguments define the mutually agreed structure of numerical schemes for forward and adjoint problems, and sensitivity relations. For quantitative risk assessment the following characteristics are useful: (i) values of goal functionals and their variations in a form of sensitivity relations; (ii) risk and sensitivity functions to the variations of the sources. It is convenient to take the risk function multiplied by the source function as a distributed risk measure. The variational technique provides the backward propagation of information, contained in the target functionals, to parameters and sources of the models through the sensitivity and uncertainty functions. This gives a base for realisation of the feedback algorithms and methods of control theory, which are necessary for formulation of multi-criteria optimisation accounting different constraints of ecological, economical, and social essence while solving environmental problems such as air pollution control, placement design for new industrial units, etc. The problems of the long-term environmental forecasting demand revealing the dynamical active zones and the areas of increased sensitivity to the variations of forcings (model parameters). The proposed methodology of accounting the climatic data into environmental studies is suitable for studying such problems. Analysis of the long-term behaviour of the global climatic system and orthogonal decomposition of the multivariate series of meteorological data with respect to the scales of processes allows identifying the activity centers and using this information for construction of scenarios for assessment of risk/vulnerability for sources/receptors. Such analysis for Siberian regions showed that Siberia is situated in areas which separate circulation systems of high energy activity. For winter, they are the Pacific and Atlantic energy-active zones, whereas the Arctic and South-Asian zones withstand in Siberia in summer. These facts allow an interpretation of climatic instability inherent in the region. During the autumn-winter season, the instability expresses as sharp alteration of weather cycles. The formation of Altai-Sayan cyclogenesis (which is of the same intensity as the Mediterranean) is observed for the warm seasons in the southern Siberia. In climatology it is referred as a lee-type cyclogenesis. This is the large scale phenomenon in the climatic system of the central part of Eurasia. Such specific hydrodynamic background defines environment quality in Siberia. From the point of view of system analysis, the methods of sensitivity theory, risk assessment and control along with scenario approach offer a tool which allows bringing the results of the global atmospheric and climatic studies onto the regional level. Namely, this level puts the concrete questions on the environment quality and its changes such as a choice of plausible strategy for sources control and mitigation of the man-induced impact on environment. Some environmental problems for Siberian regions are discussed, and a number of forward, adjoint and inverse problems for different risk sites and goal functionals are presented.

[Development of a portable fall risk index for elderly people living in the community].

PubMed

Toba, Kenji; Okochi, Jiro; Takahashi, Tai; Matsubayashi, Kozo; Nishinaga, Masanori; Yamada, Shizuru; Takahashi, Ryutaro; Nishijima, Reiko; Kobayashi, Yoshio; Machida, Ayako; Akishita, Masahiro; Sasaki, Hidetada

2005-05-01

To develop a portable risk index for falls. Risk factors were chosen from previously established factors then we added several environmental factors to the risk index; previous falls in the last 12 month, trippig or stumbling, inability to ascend or descend stairs without help, decreased walking speed, inability to cross a road within the green signal interval, inability to walk 1km without a break, inability to stand on one leg for 5 seconds (eyes open), using a cane, inability to wring out a towel, dizziness or faintness, stooped or rounded back, knee joint pain, visual disturbance, hearing disturbance, cognitive decline, fear of falling, receiving 5 or more prescribed drugs, sensation of darkness at home, obstacles inside, barrier on the carpet or floor, using steps daily at home, steep slopes around home. The questionnaire sheet was completed by 2,439 community-dwelling elderly subjects (76.3 +/- 7.4 years old). The frequency of each items of fall risk index was compared between fallers (history of fall within one year) and non-fallers. Multiple regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for previous falls. Except barrier, step use and steep slope around home, all items in the fall risk index were more frequent in fallers. Multivariate analysis revealed that tripping or stumbling, inability to cross a road within the green signal interval, dizziness or faintness, obstacles inside, inability to wring out a towel, cane use and knee joint pain were independent risk factors for previous falls. These 7 selected items were further analyzed as predictors. The maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity was reached at the cut-off point of 2/3 (sensitivity 0.65, specificity 0.72) by receiver operating curve. Portable fall risk index is useful for clinical settings to identify high-risk subjects.

Association between the MTHFR C677T polymorphism and risk of cancer: evidence from 446 case-control studies.

PubMed

Xie, Shu-Zhe; Liu, Zhi-Zhong; Yu, Jun-hua; Liu, Li; Wang, Wei; Xie, Dao-Lin; Qin, Jiang-Bo

2015-11-01

Many molecular epidemiological studies have been performed to explore the association between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and cancer risk in diverse populations. However, the results were inconsistent. Hence, we performed a meta-analysis to investigate the association between cancer risk and MTHFR C677T (150,086 cases and 200,699 controls from 446 studies) polymorphism. Overall, significantly increased cancer risk was found when all eligible studies were pooled into the meta-analysis. In the further stratified and sensitivity analyses, significantly increased breast cancer risk was found in Asians and Indians, significantly decreased colon cancer risk was found, significantly decreased colorectal cancer risk was found in male population, significantly increased gastric cancer risk was found in Caucasians and Asians, significantly increased hepatocellular cancer risk was found in Asians, significantly decreased adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia (AALL) risk was found in Caucasians, significantly decreased childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (CALL) risk was found in Asians, and significantly increased multiple myeloma and NHL risk was found in Caucasians. In summary, this meta-analysis suggests that MTHFR C677T polymorphism is associated with increased breast cancer, gastric cancer, and hepatocellular cancer risk in Asians, is associated with increased gastric cancer, multiple myeloma, and NHL risk in Caucasians, is associated with decreased AALL risk in Caucasians, is associated with decreased CALL risk in Asians, is associated with increased breast cancer risk in Asians, is associated with decreased colon cancer risk, and is associated with decreased colorectal cancer risk in male population. Moreover, this meta-analysis also points out the importance of new studies, such as Asians of HNC, Asians of lung cancer, and Indians of breast cancer, because they had high heterogeneity in this meta-analysis (I(2) > 75%).

Use of the Dynamic Visual Acuity Test as a screener for community-dwelling older adults who fall.

PubMed

Honaker, Julie A; Shepard, Neil T

2011-01-01

Adequate function of the peripheral vestibular system, specifically the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR; a network of neural connections between the peripheral vestibular system and the extraocular muscles) is essential for maintaining stable vision during head movements. Decreased visual acuity resulting from an impaired peripheral vestibular system may impede balance and postural control and place an individual at risk of falling. Therefore, sensitive measures of the vestibular system are warranted to screen for the tendency to fall, alerting clinicians to recommend further risk of falling assessment and referral to a falling risk reduction program. Dynamic Visual Acuity (DVA) testing is a computerized VOR assessment method to evaluate the peripheral vestibular system during head movements; reduced visual acuity as documented with DVA testing may be sensitive to screen for falling risk. This study examined the sensitivity and specificity of the computerized DVA test with yaw plane head movements for identifying community-dwelling adults (58-78 years) who are prone to falling. A total of 16 older adults with a history of two or more unexplained falls in the previous twelve months and 16 age and gender matched controls without a history of falls in the previous twelve months participated. Computerized DVA with horizontal head movements at a fixed velocity of 120 deg/sec was measured and compared with the Dynamic Gait Index (DGI) a gold standard gait assessment measurement for identifying falling risk. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis and area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to assess the sensitivity and specificity of the computerized DVA as a screening measure for falling risk as determined by the DGI. Results suggested a link between computerized DVA and the propensity to fall; DVA in the yaw plane was found to be a sensitive (92%) and accurate screening measure when using a cutoff logMAR value of >0.25.

Studies on Early Allergic Sensitization in the Lithuanian Birth Cohort

PubMed Central

Dubakiene, Ruta; Rudzeviciene, Odilija; Butiene, Indre; Sezaite, Indre; Petronyte, Malvina; Vaicekauskaite, Dalia; Zvirbliene, Aurelija

2012-01-01

Cohort studies are of great importance in defining the mechanism responsible for the development of allergy-associated diseases, such as atopic dermatitis, allergic asthma, and allergic rhinoconjunctivitis. Although these disorders share genetic and environmental risk factors, it is still under debate whether they are linked or develop sequentially along an atopic pathway. The current study was aimed to determine the pattern of allergy sensitization in the Lithuanian birth cohort “Alergemol” (n = 1558) established as a part of the multicenter European birth cohort “EuroPrevall”. Early sensitization to food allergens in the “Alergemol” birth cohort was analysed. The analysis revealed 1.3% and 2.8% of symptomatic-sensitized subjects at 6 and 12 months of age, respectively. The sensitization pattern in response to different allergens in the group of infants with food allergy symptoms was studied using allergological methods in vivo and in vitro. The impact of maternal and environmental risk factors on the early development of food allergy in at 6 and 12 months of age was evaluated. Our data showed that maternal diet, diseases, the use of antibiotics, and tobacco smoke during pregnancy had no significant impact on the early sensitization to food allergens. However, infants of atopic mothers were significantly more often sensitized to egg as compared to the infants of nonatopic mothers. PMID:22606067

Personalized treatment of women with early breast cancer: a risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis of adjuvant chemotherapy accounting for companion prognostic tests OncotypeDX and Adjuvant!Online.

PubMed

Jahn, Beate; Rochau, Ursula; Kurzthaler, Christina; Hubalek, Michael; Miksad, Rebecca; Sroczynski, Gaby; Paulden, Mike; Bundo, Marvin; Stenehjem, David; Brixner, Diana; Krahn, Murray; Siebert, Uwe

2017-10-16

Due to high survival rates and the relatively small benefit of adjuvant therapy, the application of personalized medicine (PM) through risk stratification is particularly beneficial in early breast cancer (BC) to avoid unnecessary harms from treatment. The new 21-gene assay (OncotypeDX, ODX) is a promising prognostic score for risk stratification that can be applied in conjunction with Adjuvant!Online (AO) to guide personalized chemotherapy decisions for early BC patients. Our goal was to evaluate risk-group specific cost effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for women with early stage BC in Austria based on AO and ODX risk stratification. A previously validated discrete event simulation model was applied to a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old women over a lifetime horizon. We simulated twelve risk groups derived from the joint application of ODX and AO and included respective additional costs. The primary outcomes of interest were life-years gained, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER). The robustness of results and decisions derived were tested in sensitivity analyses. A cross-country comparison of results was performed. Chemotherapy is dominated (i.e., less effective and more costly) for patients with 1) low ODX risk independent of AO classification; and 2) low AO risk and intermediate ODX risk. For patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk, the ICER is below 15,000 EUR/QALY (potentially cost effective depending on the willingness-to-pay). Applying the AO risk classification alone would miss risk groups where chemotherapy is dominated and thus should not be considered. These results are sensitive to changes in the probabilities of distant recurrence but not to changes in the costs of chemotherapy or the ODX test. Based on our modeling study, chemotherapy is effective and cost effective for Austrian patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk. In other words, low ODX risk suggests chemotherapy should not be considered but low AO risk may benefit from chemotherapy if ODX risk is high. Our analysis suggests that risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis, which includes companion prognostic tests are essential in PM.

A double-risk monitoring and movement restriction policy for Ebola entry screening at airports in the United States.

PubMed

Jacobson, Sheldon H; Yu, Ge; Jokela, Janet A

2016-07-01

This paper provides an alternative policy for Ebola entry screening at airports in the United States. This alternative policy considers a social contact tracing (SCT) risk level, in addition to the current health risk level used by the CDC. The performances of both policies are compared based on the scenarios that occur and the expected cost associated with implementing such policies. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify conditions under which one policy dominates the other policy. This analysis takes into account that the alternative policy requires additional data collection, which is balanced by a more cost-effective allocation of resources. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Empirical analysis of farmers' drought risk perception: objective factors, personal circumstances, and social influence.

PubMed

Duinen, Rianne van; Filatova, Tatiana; Geurts, Peter; Veen, Anne van der

2015-04-01

Drought-induced water shortage and salinization are a global threat to agricultural production. With climate change, drought risk is expected to increase as drought events are assumed to occur more frequently and to become more severe. The agricultural sector's adaptive capacity largely depends on farmers' drought risk perceptions. Understanding the formation of farmers' drought risk perceptions is a prerequisite to designing effective and efficient public drought risk management strategies. Various strands of literature point at different factors shaping individual risk perceptions. Economic theory points at objective risk variables, whereas psychology and sociology identify subjective risk variables. This study investigates and compares the contribution of objective and subjective factors in explaining farmers' drought risk perception by means of survey data analysis. Data on risk perceptions, farm characteristics, and various other personality traits were collected from farmers located in the southwest Netherlands. From comparing the explanatory power of objective and subjective risk factors in separate models and a full model of risk perception, it can be concluded that farmers' risk perceptions are shaped by both rational and emotional factors. In a full risk perception model, being located in an area with external water supply, owning fields with salinization issues, cultivating drought-/salt-sensitive crops, farm revenue, drought risk experience, and perceived control are significant explanatory variables of farmers' drought risk perceptions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Latent class analysis reveals clinically relevant atopy phenotypes in 2 birth cohorts.

PubMed

Hose, Alexander J; Depner, Martin; Illi, Sabina; Lau, Susanne; Keil, Thomas; Wahn, Ulrich; Fuchs, Oliver; Pfefferle, Petra Ina; Schmaußer-Hechfellner, Elisabeth; Genuneit, Jon; Lauener, Roger; Karvonen, Anne M; Roduit, Caroline; Dalphin, Jean-Charles; Riedler, Josef; Pekkanen, Juha; von Mutius, Erika; Ege, Markus J

2017-06-01

Phenotypes of childhood-onset asthma are characterized by distinct trajectories and functional features. For atopy, definition of phenotypes during childhood is less clear. We sought to define phenotypes of atopic sensitization over the first 6 years of life using a latent class analysis (LCA) integrating 3 dimensions of atopy: allergen specificity, time course, and levels of specific IgE (sIgE). Phenotypes were defined by means of LCA in 680 children of the Multizentrische Allergiestudie (MAS) and 766 children of the Protection against allergy: Study in Rural Environments (PASTURE) birth cohorts and compared with classical nondisjunctive definitions of seasonal, perennial, and food sensitization with respect to atopic diseases and lung function. Cytokine levels were measured in the PASTURE cohort. The LCA classified predominantly by type and multiplicity of sensitization (food vs inhalant), allergen combinations, and sIgE levels. Latent classes were related to atopic disease manifestations with higher sensitivity and specificity than the classical definitions. LCA detected consistently in both cohorts a distinct group of children with severe atopy characterized by high seasonal sIgE levels and a strong propensity for asthma; hay fever; eczema; and impaired lung function, also in children without an established asthma diagnosis. Severe atopy was associated with an increased IL-5/IFN-γ ratio. A path analysis among sensitized children revealed that among all features of severe atopy, only excessive sIgE production early in life affected asthma risk. LCA revealed a set of benign, symptomatic, and severe atopy phenotypes. The severe phenotype emerged as a latent condition with signs of a dysbalanced immune response. It determined high asthma risk through excessive sIgE production and directly affected impaired lung function. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Probiotic Use to Prevent Clostridium difficile Infection in Hospitalized Adults Receiving Antibiotics

PubMed Central

Leff, Jared A; Schneider, Yecheskel; Crawford, Carl V; Maw, Anna; Bosworth, Brian; Simon, Matthew S

2017-01-01

Abstract Background Systematic reviews with meta-analyses and meta-regression suggest that timely probiotic use can prevent Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in hospitalized adults receiving antibiotics, but the cost effectiveness is unknown. We sought to evaluate the cost effectiveness of probiotic use for prevention of CDI versus no probiotic use in the United States. Methods We programmed a decision analytic model using published literature and national databases with a 1-year time horizon. The base case was modeled as a hypothetical cohort of hospitalized adults (mean age 68) receiving antibiotics with and without concurrent probiotic administration. Projected outcomes included quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs (2013 US dollars), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs; $/QALY), and cost per infection avoided. One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted, and scenarios of different age cohorts were considered. The ICERs less than $100000 per QALY were considered cost effective. Results Probiotic use dominated (more effective and less costly) no probiotic use. Results were sensitive to probiotic efficacy (relative risk <0.73), the baseline risk of CDI (>1.6%), the risk of probiotic-associated bactermia/fungemia (<0.26%), probiotic cost (<$130), and age (>65). In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100000/QALY, probiotics were the optimal strategy in 69.4% of simulations. Conclusions Our findings suggest that probiotic use may be a cost-effective strategy to prevent CDI in hospitalized adults receiving antibiotics age 65 or older or when the baseline risk of CDI exceeds 1.6%. PMID:29230429

Influence of Injury Risk Thresholds on the Performance of an Algorithm to Predict Crashes with Serious Injuries

PubMed Central

Bahouth, George; Digges, Kennerly; Schulman, Carl

2012-01-01

This paper presents methods to estimate crash injury risk based on crash characteristics captured by some passenger vehicles equipped with Advanced Automatic Crash Notification technology. The resulting injury risk estimates could be used within an algorithm to optimize rescue care. Regression analysis was applied to the National Automotive Sampling System / Crashworthiness Data System (NASS/CDS) to determine how variations in a specific injury risk threshold would influence the accuracy of predicting crashes with serious injuries. The recommended thresholds for classifying crashes with severe injuries are 0.10 for frontal crashes and 0.05 for side crashes. The regression analysis of NASS/CDS indicates that these thresholds will provide sensitivity above 0.67 while maintaining a positive predictive value in the range of 0.20. PMID:23169132

Economic evaluation of strategies for restarting anticoagulation therapy after a first event of unprovoked venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Monahan, M; Ensor, J; Moore, D; Fitzmaurice, D; Jowett, S

2017-08-01

Essentials Correct duration of treatment after a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unknown. We assessed when restarting anticoagulation was worthwhile based on patient risk of recurrent VTE. When the risk over a one-year period is 17.5%, restarting is cost-effective. However, sensitivity analyses indicate large uncertainty in the estimates. Background Following at least 3 months of anticoagulation therapy after a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE), there is uncertainty about the duration of therapy. Further anticoagulation therapy reduces the risk of having a potentially fatal recurrent VTE but at the expense of a higher risk of bleeding, which can also be fatal. Objective An economic evaluation sought to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of using a decision rule for restarting anticoagulation therapy vs. no extension of therapy in patients based on their risk of a further unprovoked VTE. Methods A Markov patient-level simulation model was developed, which adopted a lifetime time horizon with monthly time cycles and was from a UK National Health Service (NHS)/Personal Social Services (PSS) perspective. Results Base-case model results suggest that treating patients with a predicted 1 year VTE risk of 17.5% or higher may be cost-effective if decision makers are willing to pay up to £20 000 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained. However, probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that the model was highly sensitive to overall parameter uncertainty and caution is warranted in selecting the optimal decision rule on cost-effectiveness grounds. Univariate sensitivity analyses indicate variables such as anticoagulation therapy disutility and mortality risks were very influential in driving model results. Conclusion This represents the first economic model to consider the use of a decision rule for restarting therapy for unprovoked VTE patients. Better data are required to predict long-term bleeding risks during therapy in this patient group. © 2017 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Hypertension Screening and Treatment in Adults with Hypertension in Rural Nigeria in the Context of a Health Insurance Program

PubMed Central

Verhagen, Mark D.; Bolarinwa, Oladimeji A.; Sanya, Emmanuel O.; Kolo, Philip M.; Adenusi, Peju; Agbede, Kayode; van Eck, Diederik; Tan, Siok Swan; Akande, Tanimola M.; Redekop, William; Schultsz, Constance; Gomez, Gabriela B.

2016-01-01

Background High blood pressure is a leading risk factor for death and disability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We evaluated the costs and cost-effectiveness of hypertension care provided within the Kwara State Health Insurance (KSHI) program in rural Nigeria. Methods A Markov model was developed to assess the costs and cost-effectiveness of population-level hypertension screening and subsequent antihypertensive treatment for the population at-risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) within the KSHI program. The primary outcome was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in the KSHI scenario compared to no access to hypertension care. We used setting-specific and empirically-collected data to inform the model. We defined two strategies to assess eligibility for antihypertensive treatment based on 1) presence of hypertension grade 1 and 10-year CVD risk of >20%, or grade 2 hypertension irrespective of 10-year CVD risk (hypertension and risk based strategy) and 2) presence of hypertension in combination with a CVD risk of >20% (risk based strategy). We generated 95% confidence intervals around the primary outcome through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We conducted one-way sensitivity analyses across key model parameters and assessed the sensitivity of our results to the performance of the reference scenario. Results Screening and treatment for hypertension was potentially cost-effective but the results were sensitive to changes in underlying assumptions with a wide range of uncertainty. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the first and second strategy respectively ranged from US$ 1,406 to US$ 7,815 and US$ 732 to US$ 2,959 per DALY averted, depending on the assumptions on risk reduction after treatment and compared to no access to antihypertensive treatment. Conclusions Hypertension care within a subsidized private health insurance program may be cost-effective in rural Nigeria and public-private partnerships such as the KSHI program may provide opportunities to finance CVD prevention care in SSA. PMID:27348310

The association between dietary zinc intake and risk of pancreatic cancer: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Li; Gai, Xuesong

2017-06-30

Previous reports have suggested a potential association on dietary zinc intake with the risk of pancreatic cancer. Since the associations between different studies were controversial, we therefore conducted a meta-analysis to reassess the relationship between dietary zinc intake and pancreatic cancer risk. A comprehensive search from the databases of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Medline was performed until January 31, 2017. Relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) derived by using random effect model was used. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias were conducted. Our meta-analysis was based on seven studies involving 1659 cases, including two prospective cohort studies and five case-control studies. The total RR of pancreatic cancer risk for the highest versus the lowest categories of dietary zinc intake was 0.798 (0.621-0.984), with its significant heterogeneity among studies ( I 2 =58.2%, P =0.026). The average Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS) score was 7.29, suggesting a high quality. There was no publication bias in the meta-analysis about dietary zinc intake on the risk of pancreatic cancer. Subgroup analyses showed that dietary zinc intake could reduce the risk of pancreatic cancer in case-control studies and among American populations. In conclusion, we found that highest category of dietary zinc intake can significantly reduce the risk of pancreatic cancer, especially among American populations. © 2017 The Author(s).

Clinical analysis of HIV/AIDS patients with drug eruption in Yunnan, China.

PubMed

Li, Yu-Ye; Jin, Yong-Mei; He, Li-Ping; Bai, Jin-Song; Liu, Jun; Yu, Min; Chen, Jian-Hua; Wen, Jing; Kuang, Yi-Qun

2016-10-31

Drug eruption is the most common clinical presentation in patients with HIV/AIDS. The systemic clinical and risk factors associated with drug eruption remain unknown. A retrospective analysis in HIV/AIDS patients with drug eruption was carried out with demographic data, epidemiological data, clinical characteristics, laboratory data and follow-up data. The risk factors correlated with prognosis were assessed by case control analysis. A total of 134 out of 1817 HIV/AIDS patients (7.4%) presented drug eruptions. The major class of sensitizing drug was HAART drugs (47.7%), followed by antibiotics (47.0%). Nevirapine (39.6%) was the most common sensitizing drug in the HAART regimens. The patients received HAART or had allergic history were prone to develop drug eruption. The alanine aminotransferase, albumin, globulin, creatinine, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), lymphocytes, red blood cells (RBC) and eosinophils of the drug eruption patients were significantly different the control patients. The allergic history, opportunistic infection, viral load, CD4 cell count, high globulin and low albumin were the risk factors correlated with death in HIV/AIDS patients with drug eruption. It is proposed that patients with higher viral loads, higher globulin levels and lower white blood cells (WBC) should be given special attention for the prevention of complications and death.

Increased incidence of head and neck cancer in liver transplant recipients: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Qian; Yan, Lifeng; Xu, Cheng; Gu, Aihua; Zhao, Peng; Jiang, Zhao-Yan

2014-10-22

It is unclear whether liver transplantation is associated with an increased incidence of post-transplant head and neck cancer. This comprehensive meta-analysis evaluated the association between liver transplantation and the risk of head and neck cancer using data from all available studies. PubMed and Web of Science were systematically searched to identify all relevant publications up to March 2014. Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of head and neck cancer in liver transplant recipients were calculated. Tests for heterogeneity, sensitivity, and publishing bias were also performed. Of the 964 identified articles, 10 were deemed eligible. These studies included data on 56,507 patients with a total follow-up of 129,448.9 patient-years. SIR for head and neck cancer was 3.836-fold higher (95% CI 2.754-4.918, P = 0.000) in liver transplant recipients than in the general population. No heterogeneity or publication bias was observed. Sensitivity analysis indicated that omission of any of the studies resulted in an SIR for head and neck cancer between 3.488 (95% CI: 2.379-4.598) and 4.306 (95% CI: 3.020-5.592). Liver transplant recipients are at higher risk of developing head and neck cancer than the general population.

Patient characteristics associated with improved outcomes with use of an inhaled corticosteroid in preschool children at risk for asthma.

PubMed

Bacharier, Leonard B; Guilbert, Theresa W; Zeiger, Robert S; Strunk, Robert C; Morgan, Wayne J; Lemanske, Robert F; Moss, Mark; Szefler, Stanley J; Krawiec, Marzena; Boehmer, Susan; Mauger, David; Taussig, Lynn M; Martinez, Fernando D

2009-05-01

Maintenance inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) therapy in preschool children with recurrent wheezing at high-risk for development of asthma produces multiple clinical benefits. However, determination of baseline features associated with ICS responsiveness may identify children most likely to benefit from ICS treatment. To determine if demographic and atopic features predict response to ICS in preschool children at high risk for asthma. Two years of treatment with an ICS, fluticasone propionate (88 microg twice daily), was compared with matching placebo in a double-masked, randomized, multicenter study of 285 children 2 and 3 years old at high risk for asthma development. Baseline demographic and atopic features were related to clinical outcomes in a post hoc subgroup analysis. Multivariate analysis demonstrated significantly greater improvement with fluticasone than placebo in terms of episode-free days among boys, white subjects, participants with an emergency department (ED) visit or hospitalization within the past year, and those who experienced more symptomatic days at baseline. Children with aeroallergen sensitization experienced greater benefits in terms of oral corticosteroid use, urgent care and ED visits, and use of supplemental controller medications. More favorable responses to ICS than placebo in high-risk preschool children over a 2-year period were more likely in those with a ED visit or hospitalization for asthma within the past year, children with aeroallergen sensitization, boys, and white subjects.

Impact of covariate models on the assessment of the air pollution-mortality association in a single- and multipollutant context.

PubMed

Sacks, Jason D; Ito, Kazuhiko; Wilson, William E; Neas, Lucas M

2012-10-01

With the advent of multicity studies, uniform statistical approaches have been developed to examine air pollution-mortality associations across cities. To assess the sensitivity of the air pollution-mortality association to different model specifications in a single and multipollutant context, the authors applied various regression models developed in previous multicity time-series studies of air pollution and mortality to data from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (May 1992-September 1995). Single-pollutant analyses used daily cardiovascular mortality, fine particulate matter (particles with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm; PM(2.5)), speciated PM(2.5), and gaseous pollutant data, while multipollutant analyses used source factors identified through principal component analysis. In single-pollutant analyses, risk estimates were relatively consistent across models for most PM(2.5) components and gaseous pollutants. However, risk estimates were inconsistent for ozone in all-year and warm-season analyses. Principal component analysis yielded factors with species associated with traffic, crustal material, residual oil, and coal. Risk estimates for these factors exhibited less sensitivity to alternative regression models compared with single-pollutant models. Factors associated with traffic and crustal material showed consistently positive associations in the warm season, while the coal combustion factor showed consistently positive associations in the cold season. Overall, mortality risk estimates examined using a source-oriented approach yielded more stable and precise risk estimates, compared with single-pollutant analyses.

Metabolic syndrome and salt sensitivity of blood pressure in non-diabetic people in China: a dietary intervention study.

PubMed

Chen, Jing; Gu, Dongfeng; Huang, Jianfeng; Rao, Dabeeru C; Jaquish, Cashell E; Hixson, James E; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; Chen, Jichun; Lu, Fanghong; Hu, Dongsheng; Rice, Treva; Kelly, Tanika N; Hamm, L Lee; Whelton, Paul K; He, Jiang

2009-03-07

Since insulin resistance is thought to be the underlying mechanism for metabolic syndrome, affected individuals might be sensitive to a dietary sodium intervention. We aimed to examine the association between metabolic syndrome and salt sensitivity of blood pressure. 1906 Chinese participants without diabetes, aged 16 years or more, were selected to receive a low-sodium diet (51.3 mmol per day) for 7 days followed by a high-sodium diet (307.8 mmol per day) for an additional 7 days. Participants were excluded from the analysis if metabolic risk factor information was missing or if they did not complete their dietary interventions. Blood pressure was measured at baseline and on days 2, 5, 6, and 7 of each intervention. Metabolic syndrome was defined as the presence of three or more of: abdominal obesity, raised blood pressure, high triglyceride concentration, low HDL cholesterol, or high glucose. High salt sensitivity was defined as a decrease in mean arterial blood pressure of more than 5 mm Hg during low-sodium or an increase of more than 5 mm Hg during high-sodium intervention. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00721721. Of the 1881 participants with information regarding metabolic syndrome, 283 had metabolic syndrome. 1853 participants completed the low-sodium diet and 1845 completed the high-sodium diet. Multivariable-adjusted mean changes in blood pressure were significantly greater in participants with metabolic syndrome than in those without on both low-sodium and high-sodium diets (p<0.0001 for all comparisons). Additionally, risk of salt sensitivity rose with increasing numbers of risk factors for metabolic syndrome. Compared with those with no risk factors, participants with four or five had a 3.54-fold increased odds (95% CI 2.05-6.11) of high salt-sensitivity during the low-sodium and a 3.13-fold increased odds (1.80-5.43) of high salt-sensitivity during the high-sodium intervention. These results suggest that metabolic syndrome enhances blood pressure response to sodium intake. Reduction in sodium intake could be an especially important component in reducing blood pressure in patients with multiple risk factors for metabolic syndrome.

Epidemiology of pediatric nickel sensitivity: Retrospective review of North American Contact Dermatitis Group (NACDG) data 1994-2014.

PubMed

Warshaw, Erin M; Aschenbeck, Kelly A; DeKoven, Joel G; Maibach, Howard I; Taylor, James S; Sasseville, Denis; Belsito, Donald V; Fowler, Joseph F; Zug, Kathryn A; Zirwas, Matthew J; Fransway, Anthony F; DeLeo, Vincent A; Marks, James G; Pratt, Melanie D; Mathias, Toby

2018-04-14

Nickel is a common allergen responsible for allergic contact dermatitis. To characterize nickel sensitivity in children and compare pediatric cohorts (≤5, 6-12, and 13-18 years). Retrospective, cross-sectional analysis of 1894 pediatric patients patch tested by the North American Contact Dermatitis Group from 1994 to 2014. We evaluated demographics, rates of reaction to nickel, strength of nickel reactions, and nickel allergy sources. The frequency of nickel sensitivity was 23.7%. Children with nickel sensitivity were significantly less likely to be male (P < .0001; relative risk, 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.75) or have a history of allergic rhinitis (P = .0017; relative risk, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.90) compared with those who were not nickel sensitive. In the nickel-sensitive cohort, the relative proportion of boys declined with age (44.8% for age ≤5, 36.6% for age 6-12, and 22.6% for age 13-18 years). The most common body site distribution for all age groups sensitive to nickel was scattered/generalized, indicating widespread dermatitis. Jewelry was the most common source associated with nickel sensitivity (36.4%). As a cross-sectional study, no long-term follow-up was available. Nickel sensitivity in children was common; the frequency was significantly higher in girls than in boys. Overall, sensitivity decreased with age. The most common source of nickel was jewelry. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Comparative Effectiveness of Personalized Lifestyle Management Strategies for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction.

PubMed

Chu, Paula; Pandya, Ankur; Salomon, Joshua A; Goldie, Sue J; Hunink, M G Myriam

2016-03-29

Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. We computed risks using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations for a variety of individual profiles. Using published literature on risk factor reductions through diverse lifestyle interventions-group therapy for stopping smoking, Mediterranean diet, aerobic exercise (walking), and yoga-we calculated the risk reduction through each of these interventions to determine the strategy associated with the maximum benefit for each profile. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. In the base-case analysis, yoga was associated with the largest 10-year cardiovascular disease risk reductions (maximum absolute reduction 16.7% for the highest-risk individuals). Walking generally ranked second (max 11.4%), followed by Mediterranean diet (max 9.2%), and group therapy for smoking (max 1.6%). If the individual was a current smoker and successfully quit smoking (ie, achieved complete smoking cessation), then stopping smoking yielded the largest reduction. Probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analysis confirmed the demonstrated trend. This study reports the comparative effectiveness of several forms of lifestyle modifications and found smoking cessation and yoga to be the most effective forms of cardiovascular disease prevention. Future research should focus on patient adherence to personalized therapies, cost-effectiveness of these strategies, and the potential for enhanced benefit when interventions are performed simultaneously rather than as single measures. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Predicting the risk of malignancy in adnexal masses based on the Simple Rules from the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis group.

PubMed

Timmerman, Dirk; Van Calster, Ben; Testa, Antonia; Savelli, Luca; Fischerova, Daniela; Froyman, Wouter; Wynants, Laure; Van Holsbeke, Caroline; Epstein, Elisabeth; Franchi, Dorella; Kaijser, Jeroen; Czekierdowski, Artur; Guerriero, Stefano; Fruscio, Robert; Leone, Francesco P G; Rossi, Alberto; Landolfo, Chiara; Vergote, Ignace; Bourne, Tom; Valentin, Lil

2016-04-01

Accurate methods to preoperatively characterize adnexal tumors are pivotal for optimal patient management. A recent metaanalysis concluded that the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis algorithms such as the Simple Rules are the best approaches to preoperatively classify adnexal masses as benign or malignant. We sought to develop and validate a model to predict the risk of malignancy in adnexal masses using the ultrasound features in the Simple Rules. This was an international cross-sectional cohort study involving 22 oncology centers, referral centers for ultrasonography, and general hospitals. We included consecutive patients with an adnexal tumor who underwent a standardized transvaginal ultrasound examination and were selected for surgery. Data on 5020 patients were recorded in 3 phases from 2002 through 2012. The 5 Simple Rules features indicative of a benign tumor (B-features) and the 5 features indicative of malignancy (M-features) are based on the presence of ascites, tumor morphology, and degree of vascularity at ultrasonography. Gold standard was the histopathologic diagnosis of the adnexal mass (pathologist blinded to ultrasound findings). Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the risk of malignancy based on the 10 ultrasound features and type of center. The diagnostic performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR-), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and calibration curves. Data on 4848 patients were analyzed. The malignancy rate was 43% (1402/3263) in oncology centers and 17% (263/1585) in other centers. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve on validation data was very similar in oncology centers (0.917; 95% confidence interval, 0.901-0.931) and other centers (0.916; 95% confidence interval, 0.873-0.945). Risk estimates showed good calibration. In all, 23% of patients in the validation data set had a very low estimated risk (<1%) and 48% had a high estimated risk (≥30%). For the 1% risk cutoff, sensitivity was 99.7%, specificity 33.7%, LR+ 1.5, LR- 0.010, PPV 44.8%, and NPV 98.9%. For the 30% risk cutoff, sensitivity was 89.0%, specificity 84.7%, LR+ 5.8, LR- 0.13, PPV 75.4%, and NPV 93.9%. Quantification of the risk of malignancy based on the Simple Rules has good diagnostic performance both in oncology centers and other centers. A simple classification based on these risk estimates may form the basis of a clinical management system. Patients with a high risk may benefit from surgery by a gynecological oncologist, while patients with a lower risk may be managed locally. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mapping the groundwater vulnerability for pollution at the pan African scale.

PubMed

Ouedraogo, Issoufou; Defourny, Pierre; Vanclooster, Marnik

2016-02-15

We estimated vulnerability and pollution risk of groundwater at the pan-African scale. We therefore compiled the most recent continental scale information on soil, land use, geology, hydrogeology and climate in a Geographical Information System (GIS) at a resolution of 15 km × 15 km and at the scale of 1:60,000,000. The groundwater vulnerability map was constructed by means of the DRASTIC method. The map reveals that groundwater is highly vulnerable in Central and West Africa, where the watertable is very low. In addition, very low vulnerability is found in the large sedimentary basins of the African deserts where groundwater is situated in very deep aquifers. The groundwater pollution risk map is obtained by overlaying the DRASTIC vulnerability map with land use. The northern, central and western part of the African continent is dominated by high pollution risk classes and this is very strongly related to shallow groundwater systems and the development of agricultural activities. Subsequently, we performed a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the relative importance of each parameter on groundwater vulnerability and pollution risk. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the removal of the impact of vadose zone, the depth of the groundwater, the hydraulic conductivity and the net recharge causes a large variation in the mapped vulnerability and pollution risk. The mapping model was validated using nitrate concentration data of groundwater as a proxy of pollution risk. Pan-African concentration data were inferred from a meta-analysis of literature data. Results shows a good match between nitrate concentration and the groundwater pollution risk classes. The pan African assessment of groundwater vulnerability and pollution risk is expected to be of particular value for water policy and for designing groundwater resources management programs. We expect, however, that this assessment can be strongly improved when better pan African monitoring data related to groundwater pollution will be integrated in the assessment methodology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The correlation between highly sensitive C-reactive protein levels and erectile function among men with late-onset hypogonadism.

PubMed

Shigehara, Kazuyoshi; Konaka, Hiroyuki; Ijima, Masashi; Nohara, Takahiro; Narimoto, Kazutaka; Izumi, Koji; Kadono, Yoshifumi; Kitagawa, Yasuhide; Mizokami, Atsushi; Namiki, Mikio

2016-12-01

We investigated the correlation between highly sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels and erectile function, and assessed the clinical role of hs-CRP levels in men with late-onset hypogonadism (LOH) syndrome. For 77 participants, we assessed Sexual Health Inventory for men (SHIM) score, Aging Male Symptoms (AMS) score and International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS). We also evaluated free testosterone (FT), hs-CRP, total cholesterol, triglyceride levels, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, hemoglobin A1c, body mass index, waist size and blood pressure. We attempted to identify parameters correlated with SHIM score and to determine the factors affecting cardiovascular risk based on hs-CRP levels. A Spearman rank correlation test revealed that age, AMS score, IPSS and hs-CRP levels were significantly correlated with SHIM score. Age-adjusted analysis revealed that hs-CRP and IPSS were the independent factors affecting SHIM score (r= -0.304 and -0.322, respectively). Seventeen patients belonged to the moderate to high risk group for cardiovascular disease, whereas the remaining 60 belonged to the low risk group. Age, FT value and SHIM score showed significant differences between the two groups. A multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that SHIM score was an independent factor affecting cardiovascular risk (OR: 0.796; 95%CI: 0.637-0.995).

Efficacy of icotinib versus traditional chemotherapy as first-line treatment for preventing brain metastasis from advanced lung adenocarcinoma in patients with epidermal growth factor receptor-sensitive mutation.

PubMed

Zhao, Xiao; Zhu, Guangqin; Chen, Huoming; Yang, Ping; Li, Fang; Du, Nan

2016-01-01

This study aimed to investigate the potential use of icotinib as first-line treatment to prevent brain metastasis from advanced lung adenocarcinoma. This investigation was designed as a retrospective nonrandomized controlled study. Enrolled patients received either icotinib or traditional chemotherapy as their first-line treatment. The therapeutic efficacy was compared among patients with advanced. (stages IIIB and IV) lung adenocarcinoma with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-sensitive mutation. The primary endpoint was the cumulative incidence of brain metastasis, whereas, the secondary endpoint was overall survival(OS). Death without brain metastasis was considered a competitive risk to calculate the cumulative risk of brain metastasis. Survival analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier method and statistical significance was determined using the log-rank test. The present study included 396 patients with 131 in the icotinib group and 265 in the chemotherapy group. Among those with EGFR-sensitive mutation, the cumulative risk of brain metastasis was lower in the icotinib group than in the chemotherapy group. However, no significant difference in OS was observed between the two groups. Icotinib can effectively reduce the incidence of brain metastasis and therefore improve prognosis in advanced lung adenocarcinoma patients with EGFR.sensitive mutation.

Efficacy of icotinib versus traditional chemotherapy as first-line treatment for preventing brain metastasis from advanced lung adenocarcinoma in patients with epidermal growth factor receptor-sensitive mutation.

PubMed

Zhao, Xiao; Zhu, Guangqin; Chen, Huoming; Yang, Ping; Li, Fang; Du, Nan

2014-11-01

This study aimed to investigate the potential use of icotinib as first-line treatment to prevent brain metastasis from advanced lung adenocarcinoma. This investigation was designed as a retrospective nonrandomized controlled study. Enrolled patients received either icotinib or traditional chemotherapy as their first-line treatment. The therapeutic efficacy was compared among patients with advanced (stages IIIB and IV) lung adenocarcinoma with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-sensitive mutation. The primary endpoint was the cumulative incidence of brain metastasis, whereas the secondary endpoint was overall survival (OS). Death without brain metastasis was considered a competitive risk to calculate the cumulative risk of brain metastasis. Survival analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier method and statistical significance were determined using the log-rank test. The present study included 396 patients with 131 in the icotinib group and 265 in the chemotherapy group. Among those with EGFR-sensitive mutation, the cumulative risk of brain metastasis was lower in the icotinib group than in the chemotherapy group. However, no significant difference in OS was observed between the two groups. Icotinib can effectively reduce the incidence of brain metastasis and therefore improve prognosis in advanced lung adenocarcinoma patients with EGFR-sensitive mutation.

Measuring the hemodynamic response to primary pharmacoprophylaxis of variceal bleeding: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Imperiale, Thomas F; Chalasani, Naga; Klein, Robert W

2003-12-01

The hemodynamic response to ss-blockers alone or with nitrates is highly predictive of efficacy in prevention of variceal bleeding. Hemodynamic monitoring (HDM) requires catheterization of the hepatic vein and measurement of the hepatic venous pressure gradient, the difference between wedged and free hepatic venous pressure. The aim of this study was to compare HDM with no HDM in patients considered for primary pharmacoprophylaxis of esophageal variceal bleeding. A decision model was constructed to compare HDM with no HDM in cirrhotic patients with moderate to large esophageal varices. Patients intolerant to beta-blocker therapy would undergo endoscopic variceal ligation; those with an inadequate hemodynamic response (HDR) to beta-blocker therapy could have nitrates added before ligation was considered. Variceal bleeding was treated with ligation, with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) reserved for refractory bleeding. Probabilities of treatment responses as well as risks of bleeding and mortality were based on published literature. Only direct costs were considered during the 5-yr time horizon. Outcomes were cost in United States dollars, survival length in life-years, and proportions of patients who experienced variceal bleeding, TIPS insertion, and mortality from any cause. In the base case analysis, HDM was either cost-saving ($2,523 US dollars /life-year gained) or cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $5,200 US dollars/life-year saved) compared with no HDM, depending on whether nitrates were added to beta-blocker therapy. HDM reduced variceal bleeding by nearly 60% and had a small effect on all-cause mortality. In the sensitivity analysis, HDM was sensitive to the time horizon, as it was not cost-effective for a time horizon of <22 months and was not cost-saving before 49 months. The cost-effectiveness of HDM was not sensitive to reasonable variation in the probability of HDR to beta-blocker therapy, risk of bleeding, risk reduction with pharmacotherapy, or to the costs of HDM, bleeding, ligation, or TIPS. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that HDM was more effective and less costly 100% and 57% of the time, respectively. Compared with the current standard of no HDM, measuring the hemodynamic response of primary pharmacoprophylaxis substantially reduces the number of bleeding episodes and is cost-effective or cost-saving over a wide range of sensitivity analyses. A randomized trial of HDM is needed to verify its efficacy in clinical practice.

Risk of Falls in Parkinson's Disease: A Cross-Sectional Study of 160 Patients

PubMed Central

Contreras, Ana; Grandas, Francisco

2012-01-01

Falls are a major source of disability in Parkinson's disease. Risk factors for falling in Parkinson's disease remain unclear. To determine the relevant risk factors for falling in Parkinson's disease, we screened 160 consecutive patients with Parkinson's disease for falls and assessed 40 variables. A comparison between fallers and nonfallers was performed using statistical univariate analyses, followed by bivariate and multivariate logistic regression, receiver-operating characteristics analysis, and Kaplan-Meier curves. 38.8% of patients experienced falls since the onset of Parkinson's disease (recurrent in 67%). Tinetti Balance score and Hoehn and Yahr staging were the best independent variables associated with falls. The Tinetti Balance test predicted falls with 71% sensitivity and 79% specificity and Hoehn and Yahr staging with 77% sensitivity and 71% specificity. The risk of falls increased exponentially with age, especially from 70 years onward. Patients aged >70 years at the onset of Parkinson's disease experienced falls significantly earlier than younger patients. PMID:22292126

Reliability and Validity of Observational Risk Screening in Evaluating Dynamic Knee Valgus

PubMed Central

Ekegren, Christina L.; Miller, William C.; Celebrini, Richard G.; Eng, Janice J.; MacIntyre, Donna L.

2012-01-01

Study Design Nonexperimental methodological study. Objectives To determine the interrater and intrarater reliability and validity of using observational risk screening guidelines to evaluate dynamic knee valgus. Background A deficiency in the neuromuscular control of the hip has been identified as a key risk factor for non-contact anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in post pubescent females. This deficiency can manifest itself as a valgus knee alignment during tasks involving hip and knee flexion. There are currently no scientifically tested methods to screen for dynamic knee valgus in the clinic or on the field. Methods Three physiotherapists used observational risk screening guidelines to rate 40 adolescent female soccer players according to their risk of ACL injury. The rating was based on the amount of dynamic knee valgus observed on a drop jump landing. Ratings were evaluated for intrarater and interrater agreement using kappa coefficients. Sensitivity and specificity of ratings were evaluated by comparing observational ratings with measurements obtained using 3-dimensional (3D) motion analysis. Results Kappa coefficients for intrarater and interrater agreement ranged from 0.75 to 0.85, indicating that ratings were reasonably consistent over time and between physiotherapists. Sensitivity values were inadequate, ranging from 67–87%. This indicated that raters failed to detect up to a third of “truly high risk” individuals. Specificity values ranged from 60–72% which was considered adequate for the purposes of the screen. Conclusion Observational risk screening is a practical and cost-effective method of screening for ACL injury risk. Rater agreement and specificity were acceptable for this method but sensitivity was not. To detect a greater proportion of individuals at risk of ACL injury, coaches and clinicians should ensure that they include additional tests for other high risk characteristics in their screening protocols. PMID:19721212

High-resolution melting analysis for noninvasive prenatal diagnosis of IVS-II-I (G-A) fetal DNA in minor beta-thalassemia mothers.

PubMed

Zafari, Mandana; Gill, Pooria; Kowsaryan, Mehrnoush; Alipour, Abbass; Banihashemi, Ali

2016-10-01

The high-resolution melting (HRM) technique is fast, effective and successful method for mutation detection. The aim of this study was to determine the sensitivity and specificity of the HRM method for detection of a paternally inherited mutation in a fetus as a noninvasive prenatal diagnosis of β-thalassemia. Genomic DNAs were prepared from 50 β-thalassemia minor couples whose pregnancy was at risk for homozygous β-thalassemia. Ten milliliters of the maternal blood from each pregnant woman were collected and after separating plasma stored at -80 °C until analysis. The extracted DNAs were analyzed by HRM real-time PCR for detection of IVS-II-I (G-A) as a paternally inherited mutation. The gold standard was the result of a chorionic villus sampling by a standard reverse dot blotting test. The sensitivity and specificity of HRM real-time PCR were 92.6% and 82.6%, respectively. Also, the positive and negative predictive values were 86.2% and 90.47%, respectively. HRM real-time PCR was a sensitive and specific method for determining the paternally inherited mutation in the fetus at risk with thalassemia major.

Biopsychosocial influence on shoulder pain: risk subgroups translated across preclinical and clinical prospective cohorts

PubMed Central

George, Steven Z.; Wallace, Margaret R.; Wu, Samuel S.; Moser, Michael W.; Wright, Thomas W.; Farmer, Kevin W.; Borsa, Paul A.; Parr, Jeffrey J.; Greenfield, Warren H.; Dai, Yunfeng; Li, Hua; Fillingim, Roger B.

2016-01-01

Tailored treatment based on individual risk factors is an area with promise to improve options for pain relief. Musculoskeletal pain has a biopsychosocial nature, and multiple factors should be considered when determining risk for chronic pain. This study investigated whether subgroups comprised genetic and psychological factors predicted outcomes in preclinical and clinical models of shoulder pain. Classification and regression tree analysis was performed for an exercise-induced shoulder injury cohort (n = 190) to identify high-risk subgroups, and a surgical pain cohort (n = 150) was used for risk validation. Questionnaires for fear of pain and pain catastrophizing were administered before injury and preoperatively. DNA collected from saliva was genotyped for a priori selected genes involved with pain modulation (COMT and AVPR1A) and inflammation (IL1B and TNF/LTA). Recovery was operationalized as a brief pain inventory rating of 0/10 for current pain intensity and <2/10 for worst pain intensity. Follow-up for the preclinical cohort was in daily increments, whereas follow-up for the clinical cohort was at 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively. Risk subgroups comprised the COMT high pain sensitivity variant and either pain catastrophizing or fear of pain were predictive of heightened shoulder pain responses in the preclinical model. Further analysis in the clinical model identified the COMT high pain sensitivity variant and pain catastrophizing subgroup as the better predictor. Future studies will determine whether these findings can be replicated in other anatomical regions and whether personalized medicine strategies can be developed for this risk subgroup. PMID:25599310

The use of prophylactic gastroprotective therapy in patients with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug- and aspirin-associated ulcer bleeding: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Ho, C W; Tse, Y K; Wu, B; Mulder, C J J; Chan, F K L

2013-04-01

Poor adherence to gastroprotective agents (GPAs) is common among users of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) or low-dose aspirin (ASA). There are little data on the utilization of GPAs among NSAID and ASA users complicated by ulcer bleeding. To study the utilization of GPA among NSAID and ASA ulcers before the onset of ulcer bleeding. We conducted a cross-sectional study to determine the exposure to NSAIDs, ASA, and GPAs within 4 weeks before endoscopically confirmed ulcer bleeding. Sensitivity analysis was performed to study how improving adherence to GPA use would reduce the risk of ulcer bleeding in high-risk users. Between 2000 and 2009, 1093 and 2277 patients had NSAID- and ASA-associated ulcer bleeding respectively. The incidence of NSAID-associated ulcer bleeding declined by 40%, whereas that of ASA-associated ulcer bleeding increased by 46%. Thirty-nine per cent of NSAID users and 75% of ASA users belonged to high ulcer risk category. Although GPA prescription rate has increased over time, only 41.6% and 30.6% of high-risk NSAID and ASA users received GPAs before ulcer bleeding respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that if GPAs could reduce bleeding risk by 50%, improving adherence would prevent up to 35% of ulcer bleeding in high-risk users. A substantial proportion of high-risk NSAID and ASA users had not received prophylaxis with gastroprotective agents before ulcer bleeding. These bleeding episodes may be preventable with better adherence to gastroprotective agent use. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Risk-based maintenance of ethylene oxide production facilities.

PubMed

Khan, Faisal I; Haddara, Mahmoud R

2004-05-20

This paper discusses a methodology for the design of an optimum inspection and maintenance program. The methodology, called risk-based maintenance (RBM) is based on integrating a reliability approach and a risk assessment strategy to obtain an optimum maintenance schedule. First, the likely equipment failure scenarios are formulated. Out of many likely failure scenarios, the ones, which are most probable, are subjected to a detailed study. Detailed consequence analysis is done for the selected scenarios. Subsequently, these failure scenarios are subjected to a fault tree analysis to determine their probabilities. Finally, risk is computed by combining the results of the consequence and the probability analyses. The calculated risk is compared against known acceptable criteria. The frequencies of the maintenance tasks are obtained by minimizing the estimated risk. A case study involving an ethylene oxide production facility is presented. Out of the five most hazardous units considered, the pipeline used for the transportation of the ethylene is found to have the highest risk. Using available failure data and a lognormal reliability distribution function human health risk factors are calculated. Both societal risk factors and individual risk factors exceeded the acceptable risk criteria. To determine an optimal maintenance interval, a reverse fault tree analysis was used. The maintenance interval was determined such that the original high risk is brought down to an acceptable level. A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken to study the impact of changing the distribution of the reliability model as well as the error in the distribution parameters on the maintenance interval.

Risk factors for amendment in type, duration and setting of prescribed outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) for adult patients with cellulitis: a retrospective cohort study and CART analysis.

PubMed

Quirke, Michael; Curran, Emma May; O'Kelly, Patrick; Moran, Ruth; Daly, Eimear; Aylward, Seamus; McElvaney, Gerry; Wakai, Abel

2018-01-01

To measure the percentage rate and risk factors for amendment in the type, duration and setting of outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy ( OPAT) for the treatment of cellulitis. A retrospective cohort study of adult patients receiving OPAT for cellulitis was performed. Treatment amendment (TA) was defined as hospital admission or change in antibiotic therapy in order to achieve clinical response. Multivariable logistic regression (MVLR) and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis were performed. There were 307 patients enrolled. TA occurred in 36 patients (11.7%). Significant risk factors for TA on MVLR were increased age, increased Numerical Pain Scale Score (NPSS) and immunocompromise. The median OPAT duration was 7 days. Increased age, heart rate and C reactive protein were associated with treatment prolongation. CART analysis selected age <64.5 years, female gender and NPSS <2.5 in the final model, generating a low-sensitivity (27.8%), high-specificity (97.1%) decision tree. Increased age, NPSS and immunocompromise were associated with OPAT amendment. These identified risk factors can be used to support an evidence-based approach to patient selection for OPAT in cellulitis. The CART algorithm has good specificity but lacks sensitivity and is shown to be inferior in this study to logistic regression modelling. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Exposure Perception as a Key Indicator of Risk Perception and Acceptance of Sources of Radio Frequency Electromagnetic Fields.

PubMed

Freudenstein, Frederik; Wiedemann, Peter M; Brown, Tim W C

2015-01-01

The presented survey was conducted in six European countries as an online study. A total of 2454 subjects participated. Two main research questions were investigated: firstly, how does the cognitive, moral, and affective framing of radio frequency electromagnetic field (RF EMF) exposure perception influence RF EMF risk perception? Secondly, can the deployment of mobile phone base stations have greater acceptance with RF EMF exposure reduction? The findings with respect to the first question clearly indicated that the cognitive framed exposure perception is the main determinant of RF EMF risk perception. The concomitant sensitivity to exposure strength offers an opportunity to improve the acceptance of base stations by exposure reduction. A linear regression analysis supported this assumption: in a fictional test situation, exposure reduction improved the acceptance of base stations, operationalized as the requested distance of the base station from one's own home. Furthermore, subjects with high RF EMF risk perception were most sensitive to exposure reduction. On average, a 70% exposure reduction reduced the requested distance from about 2000 meters to 1000 meters. The consequences for risk communication are discussed.

Assessing diabetic foot ulcer development risk with hyperspectral tissue oximetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yudovsky, Dmitry; Nouvong, Aksone; Schomacker, Kevin; Pilon, Laurent

2011-02-01

Foot ulceration remains a serious health concern for diabetic patients and has a major impact on the cost of diabetes treatment. Early detection and preventive care, such as offloading or improved hygiene, can greatly reduce the risk of further complications. We aim to assess the use of hyperspectral tissue oximetry in predicting the risk of diabetic foot ulcer formation. Tissue oximetry measurements are performed during several visits with hyperspectral imaging of the feet in type 1 and 2 diabetes mellitus subjects that are at risk for foot ulceration. The data are retrospectively analyzed at 21 sites that ulcerated during the course of our study and an ulceration prediction index is developed. Then, an image processing algorithm based on this index is implemented. This algorithm is able to predict tissue at risk of ulceration with a sensitivity and specificity of 95 and 80%, respectively, for images taken, on average, 58 days before tissue damage is apparent to the naked eye. Receiver operating characteristic analysis is also performed to give a range of sensitivity/specificity values resulting in a Q-value of 89%.

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

1991-05-01

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

1991-01-01

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

Environmental tobacco smoking, mutagen sensitivity, and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Zhang, Z F; Morgenstern, H; Spitz, M R; Tashkin, D P; Yu, G P; Hsu, T C; Schantz, S P

2000-10-01

Although active tobacco smoking has been considered a major risk factor for head and neck cancer, few studies have evaluated environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and its interaction with mutagen sensitivity on the risk of head and neck cancer. We investigated the relationship between ETS and head and neck cancer in a case-control study of 173 previously untreated cases with pathologically confirmed diagnoses of squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck and 176 cancer-free controls at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center between 1992 and 1994. A structured questionnaire was used to collect ETS exposure and other covariates including a history of active tobacco smoking and alcohol use. ETS measures include a history of ETS exposure at home and at workplace. The associations between passive smoking and head and neck cancer were analyzed by Mantel-Haenszel methods and logistic regression models. Additive and multiplicative models were used to evaluate effect modifications between ETS and mutagen sensitivity. The crude odds ratio (OR) for ETS exposure was 2.8 [95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.3-6.0]. Controlling for age, sex, race, education, alcohol consumption, pack-years of cigarette smoking, and marijuana use, the risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck was increased with ETS (adjusted OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 0.9-6.8). Dose-response relationships were observed for the degree of ETS exposure; the adjusted ORs were 2.1 (95% CI, 0.7-6.1) for those with moderate exposure and 3.6 (95% CI, 1.1-11.5) for individuals with heavy exposure (P for trend = 0.025), in comparison with those who never had ETS exposures. These associations and the dose-response relationships were still present when the analysis was restricted to nonactive smoking cases and controls (crude OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 0.6-8.4). Crude odds ratios were 1.8 for those with moderate ETS exposure and 4.3 for individuals with heavy ETS exposure among nonsmoking cases and controls (P for trend = 0.008). More than multiplicative interaction was suggested between passive smoking and mutagen sensitivity. This study suggests that ETS exposure may increase the risk of head and neck cancer with a dose-response pattern. Our analysis indicated that passive smoking may interact with mutagen sensitivity and other risk factors to increase the risk of head and neck cancer. Our results need to be interpreted with caution because of potential residual confounding effects of active tobacco smoking and other methodological limitations. Future large-scale studies are warranted to confirm our findings.

Comparison of Abbott RealTime High-Risk HPV and Hybrid Capture 2 Assays for Detection of HPV Infection.

PubMed

Ko, Kiwoong; Yu, Shinae; Lee, Eun Hee; Park, Hyosoon; Woo, Hee-Yeon; Kwon, Min-Jung

2016-09-01

Various assays for detecting high-risk human papillomavirus (HR HPV) have been introduced recently, including the Abbott RealTime High-Risk HPV assay. We sought to compare the performance of Abbott PCR to Hybrid Capture 2 for the detection of HR HPV. A total of 941 cervical swab specimens were obtained. We submitted all specimens for HR HPV detection with HC2 and Abbott PCR, and then additionally analyzed discordant and concordant positive results using restriction fragment mass polymorphism (RFMP) genotyping analysis. HC2 detected one of 13 HR HPV types in 12.3% (116/941) of cases, while Abbott PCR detected one of 14 detectable HR HPV types in 12.9% (121/941) of cases. The overall agreement rate was 97.3% with a kappa coefficient of 0.879. Discordant results between these two assays were observed in 25 cases. HC2 showed a sensitivity of 90.0% and specificity of 95.9%, while Abbott PCR showed a sensitivity of 98.0% and specificity of 96.8% when using RFMP results as the gold standard. For HPV 16/18 detection, Abbott PCR showed 95.8%/88.9% sensitivity and 99.2%/99.8% specificity, respectively. The overall coinfection rate between HPV 16, 18 and non-16/18 was 9.9% (12/121) in Abbott PCR analysis. Considering its high agreement rate with HC2, higher sensitivity/specificity compared to HC2, and ability to differentiate HPV 16/18 from other HPV types, Abbott PCR could be a reliable laboratory testing method for the screening of HPV infections. © 2016 by the Association of Clinical Scientists, Inc.

Combination Testing Using a Single MSH5 Variant alongside HLA Haplotypes Improves the Sensitivity of Predicting Coeliac Disease Risk in the Polish Population.

PubMed

Paziewska, Agnieszka; Cukrowska, Bozena; Dabrowska, Michalina; Goryca, Krzysztof; Piatkowska, Magdalena; Kluska, Anna; Mikula, Michal; Karczmarski, Jakub; Oralewska, Beata; Rybak, Anna; Socha, Jerzy; Balabas, Aneta; Zeber-Lubecka, Natalia; Ambrozkiewicz, Filip; Konopka, Ewa; Trojanowska, Ilona; Zagroba, Malgorzata; Szperl, Malgorzata; Ostrowski, Jerzy

2015-01-01

Assessment of non-HLA variants alongside standard HLA testing was previously shown to improve the identification of potential coeliac disease (CD) patients. We intended to identify new genetic variants associated with CD in the Polish population that would improve CD risk prediction when used alongside HLA haplotype analysis. DNA samples of 336 CD and 264 unrelated healthy controls were used to create DNA pools for a genome wide association study (GWAS). GWAS findings were validated with individual HLA tag single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) typing of 473 patients and 714 healthy controls. Association analysis using four HLA-tagging SNPs showed that, as was found in other populations, positive predicting genotypes (HLA-DQ2.5/DQ2.5, HLA-DQ2.5/DQ2.2, and HLA-DQ2.5/DQ8) were found at higher frequencies in CD patients than in healthy control individuals in the Polish population. Both CD-associated SNPs discovered by GWAS were found in the CD susceptibility region, confirming the previously-determined association of the major histocompatibility (MHC) region with CD pathogenesis. The two most significant SNPs from the GWAS were rs9272346 (HLA-dependent; localized within 1 Kb of DQA1) and rs3130484 (HLA-independent; mapped to MSH5). Specificity of CD prediction using the four HLA-tagging SNPs achieved 92.9%, but sensitivity was only 45.5%. However, when a testing combination of the HLA-tagging SNPs and the MSH5 SNP was used, specificity decreased to 80%, and sensitivity increased to 74%. This study confirmed that improvement of CD risk prediction sensitivity could be achieved by including non-HLA SNPs alongside HLA SNPs in genetic testing.

Evaluation of an Epigenetic Profile for the Detection of Bladder Cancer in Patients with Hematuria.

PubMed

van Kessel, Kim E M; Van Neste, Leander; Lurkin, Irene; Zwarthoff, Ellen C; Van Criekinge, Wim

2016-03-01

Many patients enter the care cycle with gross or microscopic hematuria and undergo cystoscopy to rule out bladder cancer. Sensitivity of this invasive examination is limited, leaving many patients at risk for undetected cancer. To improve current clinical practice more sensitive and noninvasive screening methods should be applied. A total of 154 urine samples were collected from patients with hematuria, including 80 without and 74 with bladder cancer. DNA from cells in the urine was epigenetically profiled using 2 independent assays. Methylation specific polymerase chain reaction was performed on TWIST1. SNaPshot™ methylation analysis was done for different loci of OTX1 and ONECUT2. Additionally all samples were analyzed for mutation status of TERT (telomerase reverse transcriptase), PIK3CA, FGFR3 (fibroblast growth factor receptor 3), HRAS, KRAS and NRAS. The combination of TWIST1, ONECUT2 (2 loci) and OTX1 resulted in the best overall performing panel. Logistic regression analysis on these methylation markers, mutation status of FGFR3, TERT and HRAS, and patient age resulted in an accurate model with 97% sensitivity, 83% specificity and an AUC of 0.93 (95% CI 0.88-0.98). Internal validation led to an optimism corrected AUC of 0.92. With an estimated bladder cancer prevalence of 5% to 10% in a hematuria cohort the assay resulted in a 99.6% to 99.9% negative predictive value. Epigenetic profiling using TWIST1, ONECUT2 and OTX1 results in a high sensitivity and specificity. Accurate risk prediction might result in less extensive and invasive examination of patients at low risk, thereby reducing unnecessary patient burden and health care costs. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Atypical antipsychotics, insulin resistance and weight; a meta-analysis of healthy volunteer studies.

PubMed

Burghardt, Kyle J; Seyoum, Berhane; Mallisho, Abdullah; Burghardt, Paul R; Kowluru, Renu A; Yi, Zhengping

2018-04-20

Atypical antipsychotics increase the risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease through their side effects of insulin resistance and weight gain. The populations for which atypical antipsychotics are used carry a baseline risk of metabolic dysregulation prior to medication which has made it difficult to fully understand whether atypical antipsychotics cause insulin resistance and weight gain directly. The purpose of this work was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of atypical antipsychotic trials in healthy volunteers to better understand their effects on insulin sensitivity and weight gain. Furthermore, we aimed to evaluate the occurrence of insulin resistance with or without weight gain and with treatment length by using subgroup and meta-regression techniques. Overall, the meta-analysis provides evidence that atypical antipsychotics decrease insulin sensitivity (standardized mean difference=-0.437, p<0.001) and increase weight (standardized mean difference=0.591, p<0.001) in healthy volunteers. It was found that decreases in insulin sensitivity were potentially dependent on treatment length but not weight gain. Decreases in insulin sensitivity occurred in multi-dose studies <13days while weight gain occurred in studies 14days and longer (max 28days). These findings provide preliminary evidence that atypical antipsychotics cause insulin resistance and weight gain directly, independent of psychiatric disease and may be associated with length of treatment. Further, well-designed studies to assess the co-occurrence of insulin resistance and weight gain and to understand the mechanisms and sequence by which they occur are required. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decreased baroreflex sensitivity is linked to the atherogenic index, retrograde inflammation, and oxidative stress in subclinical hypothyroidism.

PubMed

Syamsunder, Avupati Naga; Pal, Pravati; Pal, Gopal Krushna; Kamalanathan, Chandrakasan Sadishkumar; Parija, Subhash Chandra; Nanda, Nivedita; Sirisha, Allampalli

2017-02-01

Purpose/aim of the study: The present study investigated the link of hyperlipidemia, inflammation and oxidative stress (OS) to cardiovascular (CV) risks in subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH). We enrolled 81 subclinical hypothyroid patients and 80 healthy subjects as control. Their CV and autonomic functions were assessed by spectral analysis of heart rate variability (HRV), continuous blood pressure variability (BPV) measurement and conventional autonomic function testing. Thyroid profile, lipid profile, immunological, inflammatory and OS markers were estimated and correlated with the baro-reflex sensitivity (BRS), the marker of sympathovagal imbalance (SVI) & CV risk. Mean arterial pressure (MAP, P<0.0001), total peripheral resistance (TPR, P<0.0001), ratio of low-frequency to high-frequency power of HRV (LF-HF ratio) (P<0.0001) were significantly higher and BRS (P<0.0001) was significantly lower in SCH group than the control group. BRS significantly correlated with heart rate, MAP, LF-HF ratio, lipid risk factors, anti-thyroperoxidase antibody, thyroid-stimulating hormone, high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP), malondialdehyde (MDA) and SCH. It was concluded that SVI is associated with SCH. Though dyslipidemia, inflammation and OS contributed to decreased BRS, SCH per se contributed maximally to it. Decreased BRS could be a physiological basis of increased CV risks in patients with SCH.

Reconciling uncertain costs and benefits in bayes nets for invasive species management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burgman, M.A.; Wintle, B.A.; Thompson, C.A.; Moilanen, A.; Runge, M.C.; Ben-Haim, Y.

2010-01-01

Bayes nets are used increasingly to characterize environmental systems and formalize probabilistic reasoning to support decision making. These networks treat probabilities as exact quantities. Sensitivity analysis can be used to evaluate the importance of assumptions and parameter estimates. Here, we outline an application of info-gap theory to Bayes nets that evaluates the sensitivity of decisions to possibly large errors in the underlying probability estimates and utilities. We apply it to an example of management and eradication of Red Imported Fire Ants in Southern Queensland, Australia and show how changes in management decisions can be justified when uncertainty is considered. ?? 2009 Society for Risk Analysis.

Sensitivity analysis for simulating pesticide impacts on honey bee colonies

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods Regulatory agencies assess risks to honey bees from pesticides through a tiered process that includes predictive modeling with empirical toxicity and chemical data of pesticides as a line of evidence. We evaluate the Varroapop colony model, proposed by...

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

PubMed

Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

2014-11-04

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change

PubMed Central

Dickinson, Maria G.; Orme, C. David L.; Suttle, K. Blake; Mace, Georgina M.

2014-01-01

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk. PMID:25367429

Vantage Sensitivity: Environmental Sensitivity to Positive Experiences as a Function of Genetic Differences.

PubMed

Pluess, Michael

2017-02-01

A large number of gene-environment interaction studies provide evidence that some people are more likely to be negatively affected by adverse experiences as a function of specific genetic variants. However, such "risk" variants are surprisingly frequent in the population. Evolutionary analysis suggests that genetic variants associated with increased risk for maladaptive development under adverse environmental conditions are maintained in the population because they are also associated with advantages in response to different contextual conditions. These advantages may include (a) coexisting genetic resilience pertaining to other adverse influences, (b) a general genetic susceptibility to both low and high environmental quality, and (c) a coexisting propensity to benefit disproportionately from positive and supportive exposures, as reflected in the recent framework of vantage sensitivity. After introducing the basic properties of vantage sensitivity and highlighting conceptual similarities and differences with diathesis-stress and differential susceptibility patterns of gene-environment interaction, selected and recent empirical evidence for the notion of vantage sensitivity as a function of genetic differences is reviewed. The unique contribution that the new perspective of vantage sensitivity may make to our understanding of social inequality will be discussed after suggesting neurocognitive and molecular mechanisms hypothesized to underlie the propensity to benefit disproportionately from benevolent experiences. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Respiratory problems and anxiety sensitivity in smoking lapse among treatment seeking smokers.

PubMed

Zvolensky, Michael J; Rodríguez-Cano, Rubén; Paulus, Daniel J; Kotov, Roman; Bromet, Evelyn; Gonzalez, Adam; Manning, Kara; Luft, Benjamin J

2017-12-01

The current study examined whether the interaction of lower respiratory symptoms and anxiety sensitivity is related to smoking lapse in the context of smoking cessation. Participants were adult daily smokers (N=60) exposed to the World Trade Center (WTC) disaster who were in a smoking cessation treatment program (75.0% male, 50.6years old [SD=9.2], and current smoking rate was 17.6 cigarettes per day (SD=10.6). Results indicated that the interaction between lower respiratory symptoms and anxiety sensitivity was a significant predictor of greater risk for lapse (i.e., lower survival time; B=0.005, OR=1.01, p=0.039). Follow-up analysis showed that greater respiratory symptoms were a significant predictor of lapse risk among those with high (B=0.116, OR=1.12, p=0.025), but not those with low (B=-0.048, OR=0.95, p=0.322), levels of anxiety sensitivity. The findings from the current study suggest that smokers with greater respiratory symptoms and higher levels of anxiety sensitivity may be associated with early lapse to smoking following smoking cessation treatment. Future work has the potential to inform the development of tailored cessation interventions for smokers who experience varying levels of lower respiratory symptoms and anxiety sensitivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reward and punishment sensitivity in women with gambling disorder or compulsive buying: Implications in treatment outcome

PubMed Central

Mestre-Bach, Gemma; Granero, Roser; Steward, Trevor; Fernández-Aranda, Fernando; Baño, Marta; Aymamí, Neus; Gómez-Peña, Mónica; Agüera, Zaida; Mallorquí-Bagué, Núria; Moragas, Laura; del Pino-Gutiérrez, Amparo; Soriano-Mas, Carles; Navas, Juan Francisco; Perales, José C.; Menchón, José M.; Jiménez-Murcia, Susana

2016-01-01

Background and aims Gray’s Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory has been widely applied to different clinical populations, but few studies have reported empirical evidence based on this theory for treatment outcomes in patients with gambling disorder (GD) and compulsive buying (CB). The aims of this study were to explore the association between clinical variables and personality traits with reward and punishment sensitivity (RPS) levels in women (n = 88) who met diagnostic criteria for GD (n = 61) and CB (n = 27), and to determine the predictive capacity of RPS for primary short-term outcomes in a cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) intervention. Methods The CBT intervention consisted of 12 weekly sessions. Data on patients’ personality traits, RPS levels, psychopathology, sociodemographic factors, GD, and CB behavior were used in our analysis. Results High RPS levels were associated with higher psychopathology in both CB and GD, and were a risk factor for dropout in the CB group. In the GD group, higher reward sensitivity scores increased the risk of dropout. Discussion and conclusions Our findings suggest that both sensitivity to reward and sensitivity to punishment independently condition patients’ response to treatment for behavioral addictions. The authors uphold that CBT interventions for such addictions could potentially be enhanced by taking RPS into consideration. PMID:27826998

Reward and punishment sensitivity in women with gambling disorder or compulsive buying: Implications in treatment outcome.

PubMed

Mestre-Bach, Gemma; Granero, Roser; Steward, Trevor; Fernández-Aranda, Fernando; Baño, Marta; Aymamí, Neus; Gómez-Peña, Mónica; Agüera, Zaida; Mallorquí-Bagué, Núria; Moragas, Laura; Del Pino-Gutiérrez, Amparo; Soriano-Mas, Carles; Navas, Juan Francisco; Perales, José C; Menchón, José M; Jiménez-Murcia, Susana

2016-12-01

Background and aims Gray's Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory has been widely applied to different clinical populations, but few studies have reported empirical evidence based on this theory for treatment outcomes in patients with gambling disorder (GD) and compulsive buying (CB). The aims of this study were to explore the association between clinical variables and personality traits with reward and punishment sensitivity (RPS) levels in women (n = 88) who met diagnostic criteria for GD (n = 61) and CB (n = 27), and to determine the predictive capacity of RPS for primary short-term outcomes in a cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) intervention. Methods The CBT intervention consisted of 12 weekly sessions. Data on patients' personality traits, RPS levels, psychopathology, sociodemographic factors, GD, and CB behavior were used in our analysis. Results High RPS levels were associated with higher psychopathology in both CB and GD, and were a risk factor for dropout in the CB group. In the GD group, higher reward sensitivity scores increased the risk of dropout. Discussion and conclusions Our findings suggest that both sensitivity to reward and sensitivity to punishment independently condition patients' response to treatment for behavioral addictions. The authors uphold that CBT interventions for such addictions could potentially be enhanced by taking RPS into consideration.

Risk-Sensitivity in Sensorimotor Control

PubMed Central

Braun, Daniel A.; Nagengast, Arne J.; Wolpert, Daniel M.

2011-01-01

Recent advances in theoretical neuroscience suggest that motor control can be considered as a continuous decision-making process in which uncertainty plays a key role. Decision-makers can be risk-sensitive with respect to this uncertainty in that they may not only consider the average payoff of an outcome, but also consider the variability of the payoffs. Although such risk-sensitivity is a well-established phenomenon in psychology and economics, it has been much less studied in motor control. In fact, leading theories of motor control, such as optimal feedback control, assume that motor behaviors can be explained as the optimization of a given expected payoff or cost. Here we review evidence that humans exhibit risk-sensitivity in their motor behaviors, thereby demonstrating sensitivity to the variability of “motor costs.” Furthermore, we discuss how risk-sensitivity can be incorporated into optimal feedback control models of motor control. We conclude that risk-sensitivity is an important concept in understanding individual motor behavior under uncertainty. PMID:21283556

Field-based performance of three pre-market rapid hepatitis C virus antibody assays in STAHR (Study to Assess Hepatitis C Risk) among young adults who inject drugs in San Diego, CA.

PubMed

Jewett, A; Smith, B D; Garfein, R S; Cuevas-Mota, J; Teshale, E H; Weinbaum, C M

2012-07-01

Approximately 4.1 million Americans are estimated to have been infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV), 45-85% of whom are unaware of their infection. Persons who inject drugs (PWID) account for 55.8% of all persons with HCV antibody (anti-HCV) in the U.S. PWID have limited access to healthcare and are infrequently tested for anti-HCV using conventional laboratory assays. To evaluate performance characteristics (sensitivity and specificity) of three, pre-market rapid point-of-care tests (one oral fluid and two finger-stick assays) from two manufacturers (Chembio and MedMira) in settings providing services to young adult PWID in San Diego, CA. Behavioral risk assessment surveys and testing for HCV were conducted among persons who reported injection drug use (IDU) within the past 6 months as part of the Study to Assess Hepatitis C Risk (STAHR) among PWID aged 18-40 years in 2009-2010. Sensitivity and specificity of the rapid anti-HCV assays were evaluated among STAHR participants, using two commonly used testing algorithms. Variability in sensitivity (76.6-97.1%) and specificity (99.0-100.0%) was found across assays. The highest sensitivity achieved for the Chembio finger-stick blood, Chembio oral fluid and MedMira finger-stick blood tests was 97.1%, 85.4% and 80.0% respectively; the highest specificity was 99.0%, 100.0% and 100.0%, respectively. In multivariate analysis false negative anti-HCV results were associated with female sex for the MedMira blood assay. Sensitive anti-HCV rapid assays are appropriate and feasible for high-prevalence, high-risk populations such as young PWID. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

PubMed

Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

2014-09-01

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Assessing the probability of infection by Salmonella due to sewage sludge use in agriculture under several exposure scenarios for crops and soil ingestion.

PubMed

Krzyzanowski, Flávio; de Souza Lauretto, Marcelo; Nardocci, Adelaide Cássia; Sato, Maria Inês Zanoli; Razzolini, Maria Tereza Pepe

2016-10-15

A deeper understanding about the risks involved in sewage sludge practice in agriculture is required. The aims of the present study were to determine the annual risk of infection of consuming lettuce, carrots and tomatoes cultivated in soil amended with sewage sludge. The risk to agricultural workers of accidental ingestion of sludge or amended soil was also investigated. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment was conducted based on Salmonella concentrations from five WWTPs were used to estimate the probability of annual infection associated with crops and soil ingestion. The risk of infection was estimated for nine exposure scenarios considering concentration of the pathogen, sewage sludge dilution in soil, variation of Salmonella concentration in soil, soil attachment to crops, seasonal average temperatures, hours of post-harvesting exposure, Salmonella regrowth in lettuce and tomatoes, Salmonella inhibition factor in carrots, crop ingestion and frequency of exposure, sludge/soil ingestion by agricultural workers and frequency of exposure. Annual risks values varied across the scenarios evaluated. Highest values of annual risk were found for scenarios in which the variation in the concentration of Salmonella spp. in both soil and crops (scenario 1) and without variation in the concentration of Salmonella spp. in soil and variation in crops (scenario 3) ranging from 10(-3) to 10(-2) for all groups considered. For agricultural workers, the highest annual risks of infection were found when workers applied sewage sludge to agricultural soils (2.26×10(-2)). Sensitivity analysis suggests that the main drivers for the estimated risks are Salmonella concentration and ingestion rate. These risk values resulted from conservative scenarios since some assumptions were derived from local or general studies. Although these scenarios can be considered conservative, the sensitivity analysis yielded the drivers of the risks, which can be useful for managing risks from the fresh products chain with stakeholders' involvement. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Association of PM2.5 with diabetes, asthma, and high blood pressure incidence in Canada: A spatiotemporal analysis of the impacts of the energy generation and fuel sales.

PubMed

Requia, Weeberb J; Adams, Matthew D; Koutrakis, Petros

2017-04-15

Numerous studies have reported an association between fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and human health. Often these relationships are influenced by environmental factor that varies spatially and/or temporally. To our knowledge, there are no studies in Canada that have considered energy generation and fuel sales as PM 2.5 effects modifiers. Determining exposure and disease-specific risk factors over space and time is crucial for disease prevention and control. In this study, we evaluated the association of PM 2.5 with diabetes, asthma, and High Blood Pressure (HBP) incidence in Canada. Then we explored the impact of the energy generation and fuel sales on association changes. We fit an age-period-cohort as the study design, and we applied an over-dispersed Poisson regression model to estimate the risk. We conducted a sensitivity analysis to explore the impact of variation in clean energy rates and fuel sales on outcomes changes. The study included 117 health regions in Canada between 2007 and 2014. Our findings showed strong association of PM 2.5 with diabetes, asthma, and HBP incidence. A two-year increase of 10μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 was associated with an increased risk of 5.34% (95% CI: 2.28%; 12.53%) in diabetes incidence, 2.24% (95% CI: 0.93%; 5.38%) in asthma incidence, and 8.29% (95% CI: 3.44%; 19.98%) in HBP incidence. Our sensitivity analysis findings suggest higher risks of diabetes, asthma and HBP incidence when there is low clean energy generation. On the other hand, we found lower risk when we considered high rate of clean energy generation. For example, considering only diabetes incidence, we found that the risk in health regions with low rates of clean electricity is approximately 700% higher than the risk in health regions with high rates of clean electricity. Furthermore, our analysis suggested that the risk in regions with low fuel sales is 66% lower than the risk is health regions with low rates of clean electricity. Our study provides support for the creation of effective environmental health public policies that take into account the risk factors present in Canadians health regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Effectiveness of a clinimetric scale for diagnosing vulvovaginal candidosis].

PubMed

Reyna Figueroa, Jesús; Morales Rangel, Verónica; Ortiz Ibarra, Federico Javier; Casanova Román, Gerardo; Beltrán Zúñiga, Magdalena

2004-05-01

Vulvovaginal candidosis is one of the most frequent infections of the female genital system. It is believed that 75% of women in reproductive life have suffered from vulvovaginal candidosis at least once in their life. To evaluate the effectiveness of a clinimetric scale based on clinical characteristics and factors of risk to diagnose vulvovaginal candidosis and to establish the cut points. A questionnaire was elaborated by means of consensus, there were questions about symptoms and risk factors for the diagnosis. It was applied to women in reproductive age, besides the cervicovaginal culture. The resulting questionnaire was evaluated by means of the analysis of sensitivity according to the criteria of Feinstein. The determination of points of cut was made by means of curves ROC as well as sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value. The univariable analysis was made by means of the test of chi2 and the exact test of Fisher. We used likelihood ratio for association of variables and the multi-variate logistic regression analysis was made to fit variable potentials. One-hundred forty-two women answered the questionnaire, 39 (27%) had positive isolation to Candida. Vulvar edema (3.49 OR IC 95% 1.16-10.43 p = 0.02) and ardor (OR 2.40 IC 95% 0.88-6.51 p = 0.08) were significant. None of the risk factors were statistically significant. It was reported with sensitivity of 76%, specificity of 38%, VPP 32% and VPN 81% for the = 60 record. The clinimetric scale is brief, valid and easy to apply. It can be used independently of the educative or cultural factors that limit the accomplishment of other forms of diagnosis, such as the vaginal flow exam and the cervicovaginal culture.

TA-54 (Area G) Risk Assessment from Extreme Wildfire Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linn, Rodman Ray; Koo, Eunmo; Honig, Kristen Ann

2016-08-10

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and surrounding areas have been exposed to at least four significant wildfires since 1977 and there have been numerous others within 50 miles of LANL. Based on this history, wildfires are considered a risk to LANL facilities and their contents. While many LANL facilities are at risk to wildfire to some degree, they are found in a wide variety of conditions, thus they have varying sensitivities to wildfires. Additionally, LANL facilities have various functions and different assets, so they have a wide range of values or consequences if compromised. Therefore, determining the risks and precautionsmore » that are warranted to mitigate these risks must be done on a case-by-case basis. In an effort to assess possible wildfire risks to sensitive materials stored in a Perma-Con ® in dome TA-54-0375, a conventional fire risk analysis was performed. This conventional risk analysis is documented in Engineering Evaluation Form AP-FIRE-001-FM1, which is dated 9/28/2015 and was titled ‘Wildland Fire Exposure Evaluation for Building TA-54-0375’ (Hall 2015). This analysis acknowledged that there was significant chance of wildfire in the vicinity of TA-54-0375, but the amount of combustible material surrounding the building was deemed low. The wildland fuels that were closest to the building were largely fine fuels and were not expected to have significant duration of heat release. The prevailing winds at this location are from the south and southwest and the nearest significant upwind fuels (tree crowns or unmown grasses) are at least 300 feet away. Based on these factors the conventional wildland fire risk to TA-54-0375 was deemed minimal, “Acceptable As Is, No Action Required.” This risk evaluation was based on a combined assessment of low probability of wildfires arriving at the site from other directions (where higher fuel loadings might be present) as well as the effective setback of fuels in the direction that fire is expected to arrive from.« less

Predicting Falls and When to Intervene in Older People: A Multilevel Logistical Regression Model and Cost Analysis

PubMed Central

Smith, Matthew I.; de Lusignan, Simon; Mullett, David; Correa, Ana; Tickner, Jermaine; Jones, Simon

2016-01-01

Introduction Falls are the leading cause of injury in older people. Reducing falls could reduce financial pressures on health services. We carried out this research to develop a falls risk model, using routine primary care and hospital data to identify those at risk of falls, and apply a cost analysis to enable commissioners of health services to identify those in whom savings can be made through referral to a falls prevention service. Methods Multilevel logistical regression was performed on routinely collected general practice and hospital data from 74751 over 65’s, to produce a risk model for falls. Validation measures were carried out. A cost-analysis was performed to identify at which level of risk it would be cost-effective to refer patients to a falls prevention service. 95% confidence intervals were calculated using a Monte Carlo Model (MCM), allowing us to adjust for uncertainty in the estimates of these variables. Results A risk model for falls was produced with an area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.87. The risk cut-off with the highest combination of sensitivity and specificity was at p = 0.07 (sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 78%). The risk cut-off at which savings outweigh costs was p = 0.27 and the risk cut-off with the maximum savings was p = 0.53, which would result in referral of 1.8% and 0.45% of the over 65’s population respectively. Above a risk cut-off of p = 0.27, costs do not exceed savings. Conclusions This model is the best performing falls predictive tool developed to date; it has been developed on a large UK city population; can be readily run from routine data; and can be implemented in a way that optimises the use of health service resources. Commissioners of health services should use this model to flag and refer patients at risk to their falls service and save resources. PMID:27448280

Health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the source water and drinking water of China: Quantitative analysis based on published monitoring data.

PubMed

Wu, Bing; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Xu-Xiang; Cheng, Shu-Pei

2011-12-01

A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in source water and drinking water of China was conducted using probabilistic techniques from a national perspective. The published monitoring data of PAHs were gathered and converted into BaP equivalent (BaP(eq)) concentrations. Based on the transformed data, comprehensive risk assessment was performed by considering different age groups and exposure pathways. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The risk analysis indicated that, the risk values for children and teens were lower than the accepted value (1.00E-05), indicating no significant carcinogenic risk. The probability of risk values above 1.00E-05 was 5.8% and 6.7% for adults and lifetime groups, respectively. Overall, carcinogenic risks of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China were mostly accepted. However, specific regions, such as Yellow river of Lanzhou reach and Qiantang river should be paid more attention. Notwithstanding the uncertainties inherent in the risk assessment, this study is the first attempt to provide information on carcinogenic risk of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China, and might be useful for potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Economic Impact of Closed-Incision Negative-Pressure Therapy in High-Risk Abdominal Incisions: A Cost-Utility Analysis.

PubMed

Chopra, Karan; Gowda, Arvind U; Morrow, Chris; Holton, Luther; Singh, Devinder P

2016-04-01

Complex abdominal wall reconstruction is beset by postoperative complications. A recent meta-analysis comparing the use of closed-incision negative-pressure therapy to standard dressings found a statistically significant reduction in surgical-site infection. The use of closed-incision negative-pressure therapy is gaining acceptance in this population; however, the economic impact of this innovative dressing remains unknown. In this study, a cost-utility analysis was performed assessing closed-incision negative-pressure therapy and standard dressings following closure of abdominal incisions in high-risk patients. Cost-utility methodology involved reviewing literature related to closed-incision negative-pressure therapy in abdominal wall surgery, obtaining utility estimates to calculate quality-adjusted life-year scores for successful surgery and surgery complicated by surgical-site infection, summing costs using Medicare Current Procedural Terminology codes, and creating a decision tree illuminating the most cost-effective dressing strategy. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of the results. The aforementioned meta-analysis comparing closed-incision negative-pressure therapy to standard dressings included a subset of five studies assessing abdominal wall surgery in 829 patients (260 closed-incision negative-pressure therapy and 569 standard dressings). Decision tree analysis revealed an estimated savings of $1546.52 and a gain of 0.0024 quality-adjusted life-year with closed-incision negative-pressure therapy compared with standard dressings; therefore, closed-incision negative-pressure therapy is a dominant treatment strategy. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that closed-incision negative-pressure therapy is a cost-effective option when the surgical-site infection rate is greater than 16.39 percent. The use of closed-incision negative-pressure therapy is cost-saving following closure of abdominal incisions in high-risk patients.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Lurasidone Versus Aripiprazole in Adults with Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Rajagopalan, Krithika; Trueman, David; Crowe, Lydia; Squirrell, Daniel; Loebel, Antony

2016-07-01

In 2014, lurasidone, an atypical antipsychotic, was approved for the treatment of schizophrenia in adults. It is an alternative treatment option to aripiprazole, and when compared with aripiprazole, lurasidone was associated with improved symptom reduction and reduced risk of weight gain and relapse. We conducted a cost-utility analysis of lurasidone versus aripiprazole from the perspective of healthcare services, using Scotland and Wales as specific case studies. A 10-year Markov model, incorporating a 6-week acute phase and a maintenance phase across three health states (discontinuation, relapse, death) was constructed. Six-week probabilities of discontinuation and adverse events were based on a published independent mixed-treatment comparison; long-term risks of relapse and discontinuation were from an indirect comparison. Costs included drug therapy, relapse, and outpatient, primary and residential care. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5 %. Utility estimates were taken from published literature, and cost effectiveness was expressed as total 10-year incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Lurasidone yielded a cost saving of £3383 and an improvement of 0.005 QALYs versus aripiprazole, in Scotland. Deterministic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that results were sensitive to relapse rates, while probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested that lurasidone had the highest expected net benefit at willingness-to-pay thresholds of £20,000-30,000 per QALY. The probability that lurasidone was a cost-effective treatment strategy was approximately 75 % at all willingness-to-pay thresholds, with similar results being obtained for the Welsh analysis. Our analysis suggests that lurasidone would provide an effective, cost-saving alternative for the healthcare service in the treatment of adult patients with schizophrenia.

Behavioral Control and Reward Sensitivity in Adolescents' Risk Taking Behavior: A Longitudinal TRAILS Study.

PubMed

Peeters, Margot; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, Wilma

2017-01-01

Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this study we tested whether the imbalance between behavioral control and reward sensitivity underlies risk taking behavior in adolescence, using a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 715 adolescents, of which 66% revealed an increased risk for mental health problems. To assess behavioral control at age 11 we used both self-report (effortful control) as well as behavioral measures of cognitive control (i.e., working memory and response inhibition). Reward sensitivity was assessed with the Bangor Gambling Task. The main finding of this study was that effortful control at age 11 was the best predictor of risk taking behavior (alcohol and cannabis use) at age 16, particularly among adolescents who were more reward sensitive. Risk taking behavior in adolescents might be explained by relatively weak behavioral control functioning combined with high sensitivity for reward.

Coffee consumption and risk of fractures: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Liu, Huifang; Yao, Ke; Zhang, Wenjie; Zhou, Jun; Wu, Taixiang

2012-01-01

Introduction Recent studies have indicated higher risk of fractures among coffee drinkers. To quantitatively assess the association between coffee consumption and the risk of fractures, we conducted this meta-analysis. Material and methods We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for prospective studies reporting the risk of fractures with coffee consumption. Quality of included studies was assessed with the Newcastle Ottawa scale. We conducted a meta-analysis and a cumulative meta-analysis of relative risk (RR) for an increment of one cup of coffee per day, and explored the potential dose-response relationship. Sensitivity analysis was performed where statistical heterogeneity existed. Results We included 10 prospective studies covering 214,059 participants and 9,597 cases. There was overall 3.5% higher fracture risk for an increment of one cup of coffee per day (RR = 1.035, 95% CI: 1.019-1.052). Pooled RRs were 1.049 (95% CI: 1.022-1.077) for women and 0.910 (95% CI: 0.873-0.949) for men. Among women, RR was 1.055 (95% CI: 0.999-1.114) for younger participants, and 1.047 (95% CI: 1.016-1.080) for older ones. Cumulative meta-analysis indicated that risk estimates reached a stabilization level (RR = 1.035, 95% CI: 1.019-1.052), and it revealed a positive dose-response relationship between coffee consumption and risk of fractures either for men and women combined or women specifically. Conclusions This meta-analysis suggests an overall harm of coffee intake in increasing the risk of fractures, especially for women. But current data are insufficient to reach a convincing conclusion and further research needs to be conducted. PMID:23185185

Pricing index-based catastrophe bonds: Part 2: Object-oriented design issues and sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unger, André J. A.

2010-02-01

This work is the second installment in a two-part series, and focuses on object-oriented programming methods to implement an augmented-state variable approach to aggregate the PCS index and introduce the Bermudan-style call feature into the proposed CAT bond model. The PCS index is aggregated quarterly using a discrete Asian running-sum formulation. The resulting aggregate PCS index augmented-state variable is used to specify the payoff (principle) on the CAT bond based on reinsurance layers. The purpose of the Bermudan-style call option is to allow the reinsurer to minimize their interest rate risk exposure on making fixed coupon payments under prevailing interest rates. A sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the impact of uncertainty in the frequency and magnitude of hurricanes on the price of the CAT bond. Results indicate that while the CAT bond is highly sensitive to the natural variability in the frequency of landfalling hurricanes between El Ninõ and non-El Ninõ years, it remains relatively insensitive to uncertainty in the magnitude of damages. In addition, results indicate that the maximum price of the CAT bond is insensitive to whether it is engineered to cover low frequency high magnitude events in a 'high' reinsurance layer relative to high frequency low magnitude events in a 'low' reinsurance layer. Also, while it is possible for the reinsurer to minimize their interest rate risk exposure on the fixed coupon payments, the impact of this risk on the price of the CAT bond appears small relative to the natural variability in the CAT bond price, and consequently catastrophic risk, due to uncertainty in the frequency and magnitude of landfalling hurricanes.

Gender-specific hip fracture risk in community-dwelling and institutionalized seniors age 65 years and older.

PubMed

Finsterwald, M; Sidelnikov, E; Orav, E J; Dawson-Hughes, B; Theiler, R; Egli, A; Platz, A; Simmen, H P; Meier, C; Grob, D; Beck, S; Stähelin, H B; Bischoff-Ferrari, H A

2014-01-01

In this study of acute hip fracture patients, we show that hip fracture rates differ by gender between community-dwelling seniors and seniors residing in nursing homes. While women have a significantly higher rate of hip fracture among the community-dwelling seniors, men have a significantly higher rate among nursing home residents. Differences in gender-specific hip fracture risk between community-dwelling and institutionalized seniors have not been well established, and seasonality of hip fracture risk has been controversial. We analyzed detailed data from 1,084 hip fracture patients age 65 years and older admitted to one large hospital center in Zurich, Switzerland. In a sensitivity analysis, we extend to de-personalized data from 1,265 hip fracture patients from the other two large hospital centers in Zurich within the same time frame (total n = 2,349). The denominators were person-times accumulated by the Zurich population in the corresponding age/gender/type of dwelling stratum in each calendar season for the period of the study. In the primary analysis of 1,084 hip fracture patients (mean age 85.1 years; 78% women): Among community-dwelling seniors, the risk of hip fracture was twofold higher among women compared with men (RR = 2.16; 95% CI, 1.74-2.69) independent of age, season, number of comorbidities, and cognitive function; among institutionalized seniors, the risk of hip fracture was 26% lower among women compared with men (RR = 0.77; 95% CI: 0.63-0.95) adjusting for the same confounders. In the sensitivity analysis of 2,349 hip fracture patients (mean age 85.0 years, 76% women), this pattern remained largely unchanged. There is no seasonal swing in hip fracture incidence. We confirm for seniors living in the community that women have a higher risk of hip fracture than men. However, among institutionalized seniors, men are at higher risk for hip fracture.

Ultra-sensitive PSA Following Prostatectomy Reliably Identifies Patients Requiring Post-Op Radiotherapy

PubMed Central

Kang, Jung Julie; Reiter, Robert; Steinberg, Michael; King, Christopher R.

2015-01-01

PURPOSE Integrating ultra-sensitive PSA (uPSA) into surveillance of high-risk patients following radical prostatectomy (RP) potentially optimizes management by correctly identifying actual recurrences, promoting an early salvage strategy and minimizing overtreatment. The power of uPSA following surgery to identify eventual biochemical failures is tested. PATIENTS AND METHODS From 1991–2013, 247 high-risk patients with a median follow-up was 44 months after RP were identified (extraprostatic extension and/or positive margin). Surgical technique, initial PSA (iPSA), pathology and post-op PSA were analyzed. The uPSA assay threshold was 0.01 ng/mL. Conventional biochemical relapse (cBCR) was defined as PSA ≥0.2 ng/mL. Kaplan Meier and Cox multivariate analyses (MVA) compared uPSA recurrence vs. cBCR rates. RESULTS Sensitivity analysis identified uPSA ≥0.03 as the optimal threshold identifying recurrence. First post-op uPSA ≥0.03, Gleason grade, T-stage, iPSA, and margin status predicted cBCR. On MVA, only first post-op uPSA ≥0.03, Gleason grade, and T-stage independently predicted cBCR. First post-op uPSA ≥0.03 conferred the highest risk (HR 8.5, p<0.0001) and discerned cBCR with greater sensitivity than undetectable first conventional PSA (70% vs. 46%). Any post-op PSA ≥0.03 captured all failures missed by first post-op value (100% sensitivity) with accuracy (96% specificity). Defining failure at uPSA ≥0.03 yielded a median lead-time advantage of 18 months (mean 24 months) over the conventional PSA ≥0.2 definition. CONCLUSION uPSA ≥0.03 is an independent factor, identifies BCR more accurately than any traditional risk factors, and confers a significant lead-time advantage. uPSA enables critical decisions regarding timing and indication for post-op RT among high-risk patients following RP. PMID:25463990

Relationships between Reward Sensitivity, Risk-Taking and Family History of Alcoholism during an Interactive Competitive fMRI Task

PubMed Central

Yarosh, Haley L.; Hyatt, Christopher J.; Meda, Shashwath A.; Jiantonio-Kelly, Rachel; Potenza, Marc N.; Assaf, Michal; D.Pearlson, Godfrey

2014-01-01

Background Individuals with a positive family history for alcoholism (FHP) have shown differences from family-history-negative (FHN) individuals in the neural correlates of reward processing. FHP, compared to FHN individuals, demonstrate relatively diminished ventral striatal activation during anticipation of monetary rewards, and the degree of ventral striatal activation shows an inverse correlation with specific impulsivity measures in alcohol-dependent individuals. Rewards in socially interactive contexts relate importantly to addictive propensities, yet have not been examined with respect to how their neural underpinnings relate to impulsivity-related measures. Here we describe impulsivity measures in FHN and FHP individuals as they relate to a socially interactive functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) task. Methods Forty FHP and 29 FHN subjects without histories of Axis-I disorders completed a socially interactive Domino task during functional magnetic resonance imaging and completed self-report and behavioral impulsivity-related assessments. Results FHP compared to FHN individuals showed higher scores (p = .004) on one impulsivity-related factor relating to both compulsivity (Padua Inventory) and reward/punishment sensitivity (Sensitivity to Punishment/Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire). Multiple regression analysis within a reward-related network revealed a correlation between risk-taking (involving another impulsivity-related factor, the Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART)) and right ventral striatum activation under reward >punishment contrast (p<0.05 FWE corrected) in the social task. Conclusions Behavioral risk-taking scores may be more closely associated with neural correlates of reward responsiveness in socially interactive contexts than are FH status or impulsivity-related self-report measures. These findings suggest that risk-taking assessments be examined further in socially interactive settings relevant to addictive behaviors. PMID:24505424

Occupational risk for Legionella infection among dental healthcare workers: meta-analysis in occupational epidemiology.

PubMed

Petti, Stefano; Vitali, Matteo

2017-07-13

The occupational risk for Legionella infection among dental healthcare workers (DHCWs) is conjectured because of the risk of routine inhalation of potentially contaminated aerosols produced by the dental instruments. Nevertheless, occupational epidemiology studies are contrasting. This meta-analysis assessed the level of scientific evidence regarding the relative occupational risk for Legionella infection among DHCWs. Literature search was performed without time and language restrictions, using broad data banks (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, GOOGLE Scholar) and generic keywords ('legionella' AND 'dent*'). Analytical cross-sectional studies comparing prevalence of high serum Legionella antibody levels in DHCWs and occupationally unexposed individuals were considered. The relative occupational risk was assessed through prevalence ratio (PR) with 95% CI. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed (Cochran's Q test) and was used to choose the meta-analytic method. Study quality (modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale) and publication bias (Begg and Mazumdar's test, Egger and colleagues' test, trim and fill R 0 method) were assessed formally and considered for the sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis to study inclusion, subgroup analyses (dental staff categories; publication year, before vs after 1998, ie, 5 years after the release by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the infection control guidelines in dental healthcare setting) were performed. Seven studies were included (2232 DHCWs, 1172 occupationally unexposed individuals). No evidence of publication bias was detected. The pooled PR estimate was statistically non-significant at 95% level (1.7; 95% CI 0.8 to 3.2), study-quality adjustment did not change the PR considerably (PR, 1.5; 95% CI 0.5 to 4.1). PR was statistically significant before 1998 and no longer significant after 1998. Subgroup analysis according to DHCW categories was inconclusive. There is no scientific evidence that DHCWs are at high occupational risk. The differences between former and recent studies could be due to different characteristics of municipal water systems and the infection control guideline dissemination. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Accidental Water Pollution Risk Analysis of Mine Tailings Ponds in Guanting Reservoir Watershed, Zhangjiakou City, China.

PubMed

Liu, Renzhi; Liu, Jing; Zhang, Zhijiao; Borthwick, Alistair; Zhang, Ke

2015-12-02

Over the past half century, a surprising number of major pollution incidents occurred due to tailings dam failures. Most previous studies of such incidents comprised forensic analyses of environmental impacts after a tailings dam failure, with few considering the combined pollution risk before incidents occur at a watershed-scale. We therefore propose Watershed-scale Tailings-pond Pollution Risk Analysis (WTPRA), designed for multiple mine tailings ponds, stemming from previous watershed-scale accidental pollution risk assessments. Transferred and combined risk is embedded using risk rankings of multiple routes of the "source-pathway-target" in the WTPRA. The previous approach is modified using multi-criteria analysis, dam failure models, and instantaneous water quality models, which are modified for application to multiple tailings ponds. The study area covers the basin of Gutanting Reservoir (the largest backup drinking water source for Beijing) in Zhangjiakou City, where many mine tailings ponds are located. The resultant map shows that risk is higher downstream of Gutanting Reservoir and in its two tributary basins (i.e., Qingshui River and Longyang River). Conversely, risk is lower in the midstream and upstream reaches. The analysis also indicates that the most hazardous mine tailings ponds are located in Chongli and Xuanhua, and that Guanting Reservoir is the most vulnerable receptor. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are performed to validate the robustness of the WTPRA method.

Accidental Water Pollution Risk Analysis of Mine Tailings Ponds in Guanting Reservoir Watershed, Zhangjiakou City, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Renzhi; Liu, Jing; Zhang, Zhijiao; Borthwick, Alistair; Zhang, Ke

2015-01-01

Over the past half century, a surprising number of major pollution incidents occurred due to tailings dam failures. Most previous studies of such incidents comprised forensic analyses of environmental impacts after a tailings dam failure, with few considering the combined pollution risk before incidents occur at a watershed-scale. We therefore propose Watershed-scale Tailings-pond Pollution Risk Analysis (WTPRA), designed for multiple mine tailings ponds, stemming from previous watershed-scale accidental pollution risk assessments. Transferred and combined risk is embedded using risk rankings of multiple routes of the “source-pathway-target” in the WTPRA. The previous approach is modified using multi-criteria analysis, dam failure models, and instantaneous water quality models, which are modified for application to multiple tailings ponds. The study area covers the basin of Gutanting Reservoir (the largest backup drinking water source for Beijing) in Zhangjiakou City, where many mine tailings ponds are located. The resultant map shows that risk is higher downstream of Gutanting Reservoir and in its two tributary basins (i.e., Qingshui River and Longyang River). Conversely, risk is lower in the midstream and upstream reaches. The analysis also indicates that the most hazardous mine tailings ponds are located in Chongli and Xuanhua, and that Guanting Reservoir is the most vulnerable receptor. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are performed to validate the robustness of the WTPRA method. PMID:26633450

Meta analysis of angiotensin-converting enzyme I/D polymorphism as a risk factor for preeclampsia in Chinese women.

PubMed

Zhong, W G; Wang, Y; Zhu, H; Zhao, X

2012-08-13

Preeclampsia affects 3-8% of pregnancies and is a major cause of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality worldwide. Inappropriate activation of the renin-angiotensin system may play a role in the development of preeclampsia. An insertion/deletion polymorphism in the angiotensin-converting enzyme gene (ACE-I/D) has been associated with differences in ACE activity. However, there are controversies in reports on the association of ACE-I/D with preeclampsia. Data were analyzed using Review Manager Version 5.0 and a random effects model was applied irrespective of between studies heterogeneity, which was evaluated via sensitivity and subgroup analyses. Publication bias was evaluated using the fail-safe number. A systematic search was performed based on published case control studies up to October 1, 2011, and 11 studies were included, involving 800 patients and 949 controls. Significant association of the ACE D allele with increase risk of preeclampsia was found (odds ratio = 1.93, 95% confidence interval = 1.19-3.12; P = 0.008). Sensitivity analysis showed that no individual study had an undue influence on the summary odds ratios for all contrasts. An analysis stratified by study size showed an attenuated odds ratio towards a null effect as study size increased. Based on our meta-analysis, we suggest that the D allele of the ACE gene is related with increased risk for preeclampsia in the Chinese population. Considering the potential existence of small study bias, further research should be performed with a larger dataset.

Assessment of the influence of test characteristics on the clinical and cost impacts of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus screening programs in US hospitals.

PubMed

Olchanski, Natalia; Mathews, Charles; Fusfeld, Lauren; Jarvis, William

2011-03-01

To compare the impacts of different methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) screening test options (eg, polymerase chain reaction [PCR], rapid culture) and program characteristics on the clinical outcomes and budget of a typical US hospital. We developed an Excel-based decision-analytic model, using published literature to calculate and compare hospital costs and MRSA infection rates for PCR- or culture-based MRSA screening and then used multivariate sensitivity analysis to evaluate key variables. Same-day PCR testing for a representative 370-bed teaching hospital in the United States was assessed in different populations (high-risk patients, intensive care unit [ICU] patients, or all patients) and compared with other test options. Different screening program populations (all patients, high-risk patients, ICU patients, or patients with previous MRSA colonization or infection only) represented a potential savings of $12,158-$76,624 per month over no program ($188,618). Analysis of multiple test options in high-risk population screening indicated that same-day PCR testing of high-risk patients resulted in fewer infections over 1,720 patient-days (2.9, compared with 3.5 for culture on selective media and 3.8 for culture on nonselective media) and the lowest total cost ($112,012). The costs of other testing approaches ranged from $113,742 to $123,065. Sensitivity analysis revealed that variations in transmission rate, conversion to infection, prevalence increases, and hospital size are important to determine program impact. Among test characteristics, turnaround time is highly influential. All screening options showed reductions in infection rates and cost impact improvement over no screening program. Among the options, same-day PCR testing for high-risk patients slightly edges out the others in terms of fewest infections and greatest potential cost savings.

Metabolite changes in risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in cohort studies: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Park, Jeong-Eun; Lim, Hye Rin; Kim, Jun Woo; Shin, Kwang-Hee

2018-06-01

Fasting plasma glucose, oral glucose tolerance test, and glycated hemoglobin are diagnostic markers for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, it is necessary to detect physiological changes in T2DM rapidly and stratify diabetic stage using other biomarkers. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to contribute to the development of objective and sensitive diagnostic indicators by integrating metabolite biomarkers derived from large-scale cohort studies. We searched for metabolomics studies of T2DM cohort in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science for studies published within the last 10 years from January 2008 to February 2017. The concentrations of metabolites and odds ratios (ORs) were integrated and risk ratio (RR) values were estimated to distinguish subjects with T2DM and normal participants. Fourteen cohort studies were investigated in this meta-analysis. There were 4592 patients in the case group and 11,492 participants in the control group. We noted a 1.89-, 1.63-, and 1.87-fold higher risk of T2DM associated with leucine (RR 1.89 [95% CI 1.57-2.29]), alanine (RR 1.63 [95% CI 1.48-1.79]), and oleic acid (RR 1.87 [95% CI 1.62-2.17]), respectively. Lysophosphatidylcholine C18:0 (RR 0.80 [95% CI 0.72-0.90]) and creatinine (RR 0.63 [95% CI 0.53-0.74]) were associated with 20% and 37% decreased T2DM risks, respectively. Most amino acids in patients were positively related to diabetes, while creatinine and some lysophosphatidylcholines showed a negative relationship. This suggests that diabetic risk prediction using metabolites that sensitively reflect changes in the body will improve individual diagnosis and personalize medicine. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of xylitol versus sorbitol: a quantitative systematic review of clinical trials.

PubMed

Mickenautsch, Steffen; Yengopal, Veerasamy

2012-08-01

This study aimed to appraise, within the context of tooth caries, the current clinical evidence and its risk for bias regarding the effects of xylitol in comparison with sorbitol. Databases were searched for clinical trials to 19 March 2011. Inclusion criteria required studies to: test a caries-related primary outcome; compare the effects of xylitol with those of sorbitol; describe a clinical trial with two or more arms, and utilise a prospective study design. Articles were excluded if they did not report computable data or did not follow up test and control groups in the same way. Individual dichotomous and continuous datasets were extracted from accepted articles. Selection and performance/detection bias were assessed. Sensitivity analysis was used to investigate attrition bias. Egger's regression and funnel plotting were used to investigate risk for publication bias. Nine articles were identified. Of these, eight were accepted and one was excluded. Ten continuous and eight dichotomous datasets were extracted. Because of high clinical heterogeneity, no meta-analysis was performed. Most of the datasets favoured xylitol, but this was not consistent. The accepted trials may be limited by selection bias. Results of the sensitivity analysis indicate a high risk for attrition bias. The funnel plot and Egger's regression results suggest a low publication bias risk. External fluoride exposure and stimulated saliva flow may have confounded the measured anticariogenic effect of xylitol. The evidence identified in support of xylitol over sorbitol is contradictory, is at high risk for selection and attrition bias and may be limited by confounder effects. Future high-quality randomised controlled trials are needed to show whether xylitol has a greater anticariogenic effect than sorbitol. © 2012 FDI World Dental Federation.

A cost analysis of first-line chemotherapy for low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia.

PubMed

Shah, Neel T; Barroilhet, Lisa; Berkowitz, Ross S; Goldstein, Donald P; Horowitz, Neil

2012-01-01

To determine the optimal approach to first-line treatment for low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) using a cost analysis of 3 commonly used regimens. A decision tree of the 3 most commonly used first-line low-risk GTN treatment strategies was created, accounting for toxicities, response rates and need for second- or third-line therapy. These strategies included 8-day methotrexate (MTX)/folinic acid, weekly MTX, and pulsed actinomycin-D (act-D). Response rates, average number of cycles needed for remission, and toxicities were determined by review of the literature. Costs of each strategy were examined from a societal perspective, including the direct total treatment costs as well as the indirect lost labor production costs from work absences. Sensitivity analysis on these costs was performed using both deterministic and probabilistic cost-minimization models with the aid of decision tree software (TreeAge Pro 2011, TreeAge Inc., Williamstown, Massachusetts). We found that 8-day MTX/folinic acid is the least expensive to society, followed by pulsed act-D ($4,867 vs. $6,111 average societal cost per cure, respectively), with act-D becoming more favorable only with act-D per-cycle cost <$231, or response rate to first-line therapy > 99%. Weekly MTX is the most expensive first-line treatment strategy to society ($9,089 average cost per cure), despite being least expensive to administer per cycle, based on lower first-line response rate. Absolute societal cost of each strategy is driven by the probability of needing expensive third-line multiagent chemotherapy, however relative cost differences are robust to sensitivity analysis over the reported range of cycle number and response rate for all therapies. Based on similar efficacy and lower societal cost, we recommend 8-day MTX/folinic acid for first-line treatment of low-risk GTN.

Determinants of Unintentional Leaks During CPAP Treatment in OSA.

PubMed

Lebret, Marius; Arnol, Nathalie; Martinot, Jean-Benoît; Lambert, Loïc; Tamisier, Renaud; Pepin, Jean-Louis; Borel, Jean-Christian

2018-04-01

Unintentional leakage from the mouth or around the mask may lead to cessation of CPAP treatment; however, the causes of unintentional leaks are poorly understood. The objectives of this study were (1) to identify determining factors of unintentional leakage and (2) to determine the effect of the type of mask (nasal/oronasal) used on unintentional leakage. Seventy-four polysomnograms from patients with OSA syndrome treated with auto-CPAP were analyzed (23 women; 56 ± 13 years; BMI, 32.9 kg/m 2 (range, 29.0-38.0 kg/m 2 ). Polysomnographic recordings were obtained under auto-CPAP, and mandibular behavior was measured with a magnetic sensor. After sleep and respiratory scoring, polysomnographic signals were computed as mean values over nonoverlapping 10-s intervals. The presence/absence of unintentional leakage was dichotomized for each 10-s interval (yes/no). Univariate and multivariate conditional regression models estimated the risk of unintentional leaks during an interval "T" based on the explanatory variables from the previous interval "T-1." A sensitivity analysis for the type of mask was then conducted. The univariate analysis showed that mandibular lowering (mouth opening), a high level of CPAP, body position (other than supine), and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep increased the risk of unintentional leaks and microarousal decreased it. In the multivariate analysis, the same variables remained independently associated with an increased risk of unintentional leakage. The sensitivity analysis showed that oronasal masks reduced the risk of unintentional leaks in cases of mouth opening and REM sleep. Mouth opening, CPAP level, sleep position, and REM sleep independently contribute to unintentional leakage. These results provide a strong rationale for the definition of phenotypes and the individual management of leaks during CPAP treatment. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decision analysis defining optimal management of clinical stage 1 high-risk nonseminomatous germ cell testicular cancer with lymphovascular invasion.

PubMed

Avulova, Svetlana; Allen, Clayton; Morgans, Alicia; Moses, Kelvin A

2018-05-10

Risk of recurrent disease for men with clinical stage 1 high-risk nonseminomatous germ cell testicular cancer (CS1 NSGCT) with lymphovascular invasion (LVI) after orchiectomy is 50% and current treatment options (surveillance [S], retroperitoneal lymph node dissection [RPLND], or 1 cycle of BEP [BEP ×1]) are associated with a 99% disease specific survival, therefore practice patterns vary. We performed a decision analysis using updated data of long-term complications for men with CS1 NSGCT with LVI to quantify and assess relative treatment values. Decision analysis included previously defined utilities (via standard gamble) for posttreatment states of living from 0 (death from disease) to 1 (alive in perfect health) and updated morbidity probabilities. We quantified the values of S, RPLND, and BEP ×1 via the rollback method. Sensitivity analyses including a range of orchiectomy cure rates and utility values were performed. Estimated probabilities favoring treatment with RPLND (0.97) or BEP ×1 (0.97) were equivalent and superior to surveillance (0.88). Sensitivity analysis of orchiectomy cure rates (50%-100%) failed to find a cure rate that favored S over BEP ×1 or RPLND. Varying utility values for cure after S from 0.92 (previously defined utility) to 1 (perfect health), failed to find a viable utility state favoring S over BEP ×1 or RPLND. An orchiectomy cure rate of ≥82% would be required for S to equal treatment of either type. We demonstrate that for surveillance to be superior to treatment with BEP ×1 or RPLND, the orchiectomy cure rate must be at least 82%, which is not expected in a patient population with high-risk CS1 NSGCT. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of alcohol consumption on insulin sensitivity and glycemic status: a systematic review and meta-analysis of intervention studies.

PubMed

Schrieks, Ilse C; Heil, Annelijn L J; Hendriks, Henk F J; Mukamal, Kenneth J; Beulens, Joline W J

2015-04-01

Moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes. This reduced risk might be explained by improved insulin sensitivity or improved glycemic status, but results of intervention studies on this relation are inconsistent. The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of intervention studies investigating the effect of alcohol consumption on insulin sensitivity and glycemic status. PubMed and Embase were searched up to August 2014. Intervention studies on the effect of alcohol consumption on biological markers of insulin sensitivity or glycemic status of at least 2 weeks' duration were included. Investigators extracted data on study characteristics, outcome measures, and methodological quality. Fourteen intervention studies were included in a meta-analysis of six glycemic end points. Alcohol consumption did not influence estimated insulin sensitivity (standardized mean difference [SMD] 0.08 [-0.09 to 0.24]) or fasting glucose (SMD 0.07 [-0.11 to 0.24]) but reduced HbA1c (SMD -0.62 [-1.01 to -0.23]) and fasting insulin concentrations (SMD -0.19 [-0.35 to -0.02]) compared with the control condition. Alcohol consumption among women reduced fasting insulin (SMD -0.23 [-0.41 to -0.04]) and tended to improve insulin sensitivity (SMD 0.16 [-0.04 to 0.37]) but not among men. Results were similar after excluding studies with high alcohol dosages (>40 g/day) and were not influenced by dosage and duration of the intervention. Although the studies had small sample sizes and were of short duration, the current evidence suggests that moderate alcohol consumption may decrease fasting insulin and HbA1c concentrations among nondiabetic subjects. Alcohol consumption might improve insulin sensitivity among women but did not do so overall. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Sequential vs simultaneous revascularization in patients undergoing liver transplantation: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Jia-Zhong; Liu, Yang; Wang, Jin-Long; Lu, Le; Zhang, Ya-Fei; Lu, Hong-Wei; Li, Yi-Ming

2015-06-14

We undertook this meta-analysis to investigate the relationship between revascularization and outcomes after liver transplantation. A literature search was performed using MeSH and key words. The quality of the included studies was assessed using the Jadad Score and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Heterogeneity was evaluated by the χ(2) and I (2) tests. The risk of publication bias was assessed using a funnel plot and Egger's test, and the risk of bias was assessed using a domain-based assessment tool. A sensitivity analysis was conducted by reanalyzing the data using different statistical approaches. Six studies with a total of 467 patients were included. Ischemic-type biliary lesions were significantly reduced in the simultaneous revascularization group compared with the sequential revascularization group (OR = 4.97, 95%CI: 2.45-10.07; P < 0.00001), and intensive care unit (ICU) days were decreased (MD = 2.00, 95%CI: 0.55-3.45; P = 0.007) in the simultaneous revascularization group. Although warm ischemia time was prolonged in simultaneous revascularization group (MD = -25.84, 95%CI: -29.28-22.40; P < 0.00001), there were no significant differences in other outcomes between sequential and simultaneous revascularization groups. Assessment of the risk of bias showed that the methods of random sequence generation and blinding might have been a source of bias. The sensitivity analysis strengthened the reliability of the results of this meta-analysis. The results of this study indicate that simultaneous revascularization in liver transplantation may reduce the incidence of ischemic-type biliary lesions and length of stay of patients in the ICU.

Maternal sensitivity and social support protect against childhood atopic dermatitis.

PubMed

Letourneau, Nicole L; Kozyrskyj, Anita L; Cosic, Nela; Ntanda, Henry N; Anis, Lubna; Hart, Martha J; Campbell, Tavis S; Giesbrecht, Gerald F

2017-01-01

Many studies have identified associations between qualities of maternal-child relationships and childhood asthma, but few have examined associations with childhood atopic dermatitis (AD), a common precursor to asthma. Moreover, maternal psychological distress, including prenatal and postnatal depression, anxiety and stress, may increase risk, while social support from partners may reduce risk for childhood AD. We sought to uncover the association between maternal-infant relationship qualities (maternal sensitivity towards infant behavioral signals, controlling behavior, and unresponsiveness) and child AD after accounting for risk (i.e., prenatal and postnatal maternal depression, anxiety and stress) and protective (i.e., social support) factors. We conducted a secondary analysis of data collected on a subsample of 242 women and their infants enrolled during pregnancy in the ongoing Alberta Pregnancy Outcomes and Nutrition cohort study. Inclusion criteria required mothers to be >16 years of age, English speaking and <22 weeks gestational age at enrollment. Data on depression, anxiety and stress in the prenatal and postnatal periods and physician diagnosis of childhood AD at 18 months were gathered via maternal report. Maternal sensitivity, unresponsiveness and controlling behaviours were assessed via videotaped observations using the Child-Adult Relationship Experimental (CARE)-Index at 6 months of infant age. Higher maternal sensitivity, or the inability of the mother to appropriately understand and respond to infant needs based on behavioral signals, predicted reduced odds of AD independent of and in combination with low prenatal and postnatal anxiety and high paternal support. After adjustment, higher maternal controlling behaviours and unresponsiveness also predicted greater odds of AD. Low maternal sensitivity is a risk factor for childhood AD, independently and in combination with perinatal anxiety and low social support. Thus, interventions that improve maternal-infant relationship quality, especially sensitivity, reduce anxiety and improve social support from partners could reduce odds of childhood AD.

Early life IgE responses in children living in the tropics: a prospective analysis.

PubMed

Zakzuk, Josefina; Acevedo, Nathalie; Cifuentes, Liliana; Bornacelly, Adriana; Sánchez, Jorge; Ahumada, Velky; Ring, Johannes; Ollert, Markus; Caraballo, Luis

2013-12-01

There are few birth cohort studies analyzing IgE sensitization in the tropics. We aimed to describe the evolution of total IgE and specific IgE responses to house-dust mite (HDM) allergens and Ascaris in a birth cohort (Risk Factors for Asthma and Allergy in the Tropics, FRAAT), analyzing their relationships with wheezing. Total and specific IgE were measured by ImmunoCap in mothers and children at four different time points (S1-S4) between 0 and 42 months. Parasite infection was evaluated by stool examination. Maternal total IgE (aOR: 2.43, 95% CI: 1.09-5.43; p = 0.03) and socio-demographic factors were associated with high cord blood (CB) total IgE. High CB total IgE was positively associated with higher Blomia tropicalis and Ascaris-specific IgE values during lifetime, but protected from recurrent wheezing (aOR: 0.26, 95% CI: 0.08-0.88, p = 0.03). Prevalence rates of IgE sensitization were high; at around 3 yr old, they were 33.3, 18.6, and 26.5% for B. tropicalis, Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus, and Ascaris, respectively. Indicators of unhygienic conditions were risk factors for HDM and Ascaris sensitization in children. A weak statistical association between B. tropicalis-specific IgE and ever wheezing was found (aOR: 1.47 95% CI: 1.00-2.28, p = 0.05). In a socioeconomically deprived community from the tropics, sensitization to HDM allergens was very frequent at early life, especially to B. tropicalis. In contrast to expected according to the hygiene hypothesis, unhygienic/poverty conditions were risk factors for allergen sensitization. High CB total IgE levels were a risk factor for allergen sensitization but protected from recurrent wheezing. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

MTHFR C677T gene polymorphism and head and neck cancer risk: a meta-analysis based on 23 publications.

PubMed

Niu, Yu-Ming; Deng, Mo-Hong; Chen, Wen; Zeng, Xian-Tao; Luo, Jie

2015-01-01

Conflicting results on the association between MTHFR polymorphism and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk were reported. We therefore performed a meta-analysis to derive a more precise relationship between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and HNC risk. Three online databases of PubMed, Embase, and CNKI were researched on the associations between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and HNC risk. Twenty-three published case-control studies involving 4,955 cases and 8,805 controls were collected. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to evaluate the relationship between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and HNC risk. Sensitivity analysis, cumulative analyses, and publication bias were conducted to validate the strength of the results. Overall, no significant association between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and HNC risk was found in this meta-analysis (T versus C: OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.92-1.18; TT versus CC: OR = 1.15, 95% CI = 0.90-1.46; CT versus CC: OR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.85-1.17; CT + TT versus CC: OR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.87-1.18; TT versus CC + CT: OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 0.98-1.26). In the subgroup analysis by HWE, ethnicity, study design, cancer location, and negative significant associations were detected in almost all genetic models, except for few significant risks that were found in thyroid cancer. This meta-analysis demonstrates that MTHFR C677T polymorphism may not be a risk factor for the developing of HNC.

The RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism and glioma risk: a meta-analysis based on 12 case-control studies.

PubMed

Du, Shu-Li; Geng, Ting-Ting; Feng, Tian; Chen, Cui-Ping; Jin, Tian-Bo; Chen, Chao

2014-01-01

The association between the RTEL1 rs6010620 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and glioma risk has been extensively studied. However, the results remain inconclusive. To further examine this association, we performed a meta-analysis. A computerized search of the PubMed and Embase databases for publications regarding the RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism and glioma cancer risk was performed. Genotype data were analyzed in a meta-analysis. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated to assess the association. Sensitivity analyses, tests of heterogeneity, cumulative meta-analyses, and assessments of bias were performed in our meta-analysis. Our meta-analysis confirmed that risk with allele A is lower than with allele G for glioma. The A allele of rs6010620 in RTEL1 decreased the risk of developing glioma in the 12 case-control studies for all genetic models: the allele model (OR=0.752, 95%CI: 0.715-0.792), the dominant model (OR=0.729, 95%CI: 0.685-0.776), the recessive model (OR=0.647, 95%CI: 0.569-0.734), the homozygote comparison (OR=0.528, 95%CI: 0.456-0.612), and the heterozygote comparison (OR=0.761, 95%CI: 0.713-0.812). In all genetic models, the association between the RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism and glioma risk was significant. This meta-analysis suggests that the RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism may be a risk factor for glioma. Further functional studies evaluating this polymorphism and glioma risk are warranted.

Association between Use of Exogenous Testosterone Therapy and Risk of Venous Thrombotic Events among Exogenous Testosterone Treated and Untreated Men with Hypogonadism.

PubMed

Li, Hu; Benoit, Karin; Wang, Wei; Motsko, Stephen

2016-04-01

Limited information exists about whether exogenous testosterone therapy is associated with a risk of venous thrombotic events. We investigated via cohort and nested case-control analyses whether exogenous testosterone therapy is associated with the risk of venous thrombotic events in men with hypogonadism. Databases were reviewed to identify men prescribed exogenous testosterone therapy and/or men with a hypogonadism diagnosis. Propensity score 1:1 matching was used to select patients for cohort analysis. Cases (men with venous thrombotic events) were matched 1:4 with controls (men without venous thrombotic events) for the nested case-control analysis. Primary outcome was defined as incident idiopathic venous thrombotic events. Cox regression and conditional logistic regression were used to assess HRs and ORs, respectively. Sensitivity analyses were also performed. A total of 102,650 exogenous testosterone treated and 102,650 untreated patients were included in cohort analysis after matching, and 2,785 cases and 11,119 controls were included in case-control analysis. Cohort analysis revealed a HR of 1.08 for all testosterone treated patients (95% CI 0.91, 1.27, p = 0.378). Case-control analysis resulted in an OR of 1.02 (95% CI 0.92, 1.13, p = 0.702) for current exogenous testosterone therapy exposure and an OR of 0.92 (95% CI 0.82, 1.03, p = 0.145) for past exogenous testosterone therapy exposure. These results remained nonstatistically significant after stratifying by exogenous testosterone therapy administration route and age category. Most sensitivity analyses yielded consistent results. No significant association was found between exogenous testosterone therapy and incidents of idiopathic or overall venous thrombotic events in men with hypogonadism. However, some discrepant findings exist for the association between injectable formulations and the risk of overall venous thrombotic events. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Relationship between Proteinuria and Coronary Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Perkovic, Vlado; Verdon, Christine; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Barzi, Federica; Cass, Alan; Patel, Anushka; Jardine, Meg; Gallagher, Martin; Turnbull, Fiona; Chalmers, John; Craig, Jonathan; Huxley, Rachel

2008-01-01

Background Markers of kidney dysfunction such as proteinuria or albuminuria have been reported to be associated with coronary heart disease, but the consistency and strength of any such relationship has not been clearly defined. This lack of clarity has led to great uncertainty as to how proteinuria should be treated in the assessment and management of cardiovascular risk. We therefore undertook a systematic review of published cohort studies aiming to provide a reliable estimate of the strength of association between proteinuria and coronary heart disease. Methods and Findings A meta-analysis of cohort studies was conducted to obtain a summary estimate of the association between measures of proteinuria and coronary risk. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for studies reporting an age- or multivariate-adjusted estimate and standard error of the association between proteinuria and coronary heart disease. Studies were excluded if the majority of the study population had known glomerular disease or were the recipients of renal transplants. Two independent researchers extracted the estimates of association between proteinuria (total urinary protein >300 mg/d), microalbuminuria (urinary albumin 30–300 mg/d), macroalbuminuria (urinary albumin >300 mg/d), and risk of coronary disease from individual studies. These estimates were combined using a random-effects model. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine possible sources of heterogeneity in effect size. A total of 26 cohort studies were identified involving 169,949 individuals and 7,117 coronary events (27% fatal). The presence of proteinuria was associated with an approximate 50% increase in coronary risk (risk ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23–1.74) after adjustment for known risk factors. For albuminuria, there was evidence of a dose–response relationship: individuals with microalbuminuria were at 50% greater risk of coronary heart disease (risk ratio 1.47, 95% CI 1.30–1.66) than those without; in those with macroalbuminuria the risk was more than doubled (risk ratio 2.17, 1.87–2.52). Sensitivity analysis indicated no important differences in prespecified subgroups. Conclusion These data confirm a strong and continuous association between proteinuria and subsequent risk of coronary heart disease, and suggest that proteinuria should be incorporated into the assessment of an individual's cardiovascular risk. PMID:18942886

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Martinich, Jeremy; Sarofim, Marcus

2015-07-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets ofmore » 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.« less

Nonlinear analysis of the heartbeats in public patient ECGs using an automated PD2i algorithm for risk stratification of arrhythmic death

PubMed Central

Skinner, James E; Anchin, Jerry M; Weiss, Daniel N

2008-01-01

Heart rate variability (HRV) reflects both cardiac autonomic function and risk of arrhythmic death (AD). Reduced indices of HRV based on linear stochastic models are independent risk factors for AD in post-myocardial infarct cohorts. Indices based on nonlinear deterministic models have a significantly higher sensitivity and specificity for predicting AD in retrospective data. A need exists for nonlinear analytic software easily used by a medical technician. In the current study, an automated nonlinear algorithm, the time-dependent point correlation dimension (PD2i), was evaluated. The electrocardiogram (ECG) data were provided through an National Institutes of Health-sponsored internet archive (PhysioBank) and consisted of all 22 malignant arrhythmia ECG files (VF/VT) and 22 randomly selected arrhythmia files as the controls. The results were blindly calculated by automated software (Vicor 2.0, Vicor Technologies, Inc., Boca Raton, FL) and showed all analyzable VF/VT files had PD2i < 1.4 and all analyzable controls had PD2i > 1.4. Five VF/VT and six controls were excluded because surrogate testing showed the RR-intervals to contain noise, possibly resulting from the low digitization rate of the ECGs. The sensitivity was 100%, specificity 85%, relative risk > 100; p < 0.01, power > 90%. Thus, automated heartbeat analysis by the time-dependent nonlinear PD2i-algorithm can accurately stratify risk of AD in public data made available for competitive testing of algorithms. PMID:18728829

Long-Term Coffee Consumption Is Associated with Decreased Incidence of New-Onset Hypertension: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Grosso, Giuseppe; Micek, Agnieszka; Godos, Justyna; Pajak, Andrzej; Sciacca, Salvatore; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira; Galvano, Fabio; Martinez-Gonzalez, Miguel A

2017-08-17

To perform a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies investigating the association between long-term coffee intake and risk of hypertension. An online systematic search of studies published up to November 2016 was performed. Linear and non-linear dose-response meta-analyses were conducted; potential evidence of heterogeneity, publication bias, and confounding effect of selected variables were investigated through sensitivity and meta-regression analyses. Seven cohorts including 205,349 individuals and 44,120 cases of hypertension were included. In the non-linear analysis, there was a 9% significant decreased risk of hypertension per seven cups of coffee a day, while, in the linear dose-response association, there was a 1% decreased risk of hypertension for each additional cup of coffee per day. Among subgroups, there were significant inverse associations for females, caffeinated coffee, and studies conducted in the US with longer follow-up. Analysis of potential confounders revealed that smoking-related variables weakened the strength of association between coffee consumption and risk of hypertension. Increased coffee consumption is associated with a modest decrease in risk of hypertension in prospective cohort studies. Smoking status is a potential effect modifier on the association between coffee consumption and risk of hypertension.

Diagnostic performance of contrast-enhanced spectral mammography: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tagliafico, Alberto Stefano; Bignotti, Bianca; Rossi, Federica; Signori, Alessio; Sormani, Maria Pia; Valdora, Francesca; Calabrese, Massimo; Houssami, Nehmat

2016-08-01

To estimate sensitivity and specificity of CESM for breast cancer diagnosis. Systematic review and meta-analysis of the accuracy of CESM in finding breast cancer in highly selected women. We estimated summary receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivity and specificity according to quality criteria with QUADAS-2. Six hundred four studies were retrieved, 8 of these reporting on 920 patients with 994 lesions, were eligible for inclusion. Estimated sensitivity from all studies was: 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96-1.00). Specificity was estimated from six studies reporting raw data: 0.58 (95% CI: 0.38-0.77). The majority of studies were scored as at high risk of bias due to the very selected populations. CESM has a high sensitivity but very low specificity. The source studies were based on highly selected case series and prone to selection bias. High-quality studies are required to assess the accuracy of CESM in unselected cases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CHILDREN AS A SENSITIVE SUBPOPULATION FOR THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS

EPA Science Inventory

Children as a sensitive subpopulation for the risk assessment process
Abstract
For cancer risk assessment purposes, it is necessary to consider how to incorporate sensitive subpopulations into the process to ensure that they are appropriately protected. Children represent o...

Inventory Control System for a Healthcare Apparel Service Centre with Stockout Risk: A Case Analysis

PubMed Central

Hui, Chi-Leung

2017-01-01

Based on the real-world inventory control problem of a capacitated healthcare apparel service centre in Hong Kong which provides tailor-made apparel-making services for the elderly and disabled people, this paper studies a partial backordered continuous review inventory control problem in which the product demand follows a Poisson process with a constant lead time. The system is controlled by an (Q,r) inventory policy which incorporate the stockout risk, storage capacity, and partial backlog. The healthcare apparel service centre, under the capacity constraint, aims to minimize the inventory cost and achieving a low stockout risk. To address this challenge, an optimization problem is constructed. A real case-based data analysis is conducted, and the result shows that the expected total cost on an order cycle is reduced substantially at around 20% with our proposed optimal inventory control policy. An extensive sensitivity analysis is conducted to generate additional insights. PMID:29527283

Data Hemorrhages in the Health-Care Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, M. Eric

Confidential data hemorrhaging from health-care providers pose financial risks to firms and medical risks to patients. We examine the consequences of data hemorrhages including privacy violations, medical fraud, financial identity theft, and medical identity theft. We also examine the types and sources of data hemorrhages, focusing on inadvertent disclosures. Through an analysis of leaked files, we examine data hemorrhages stemming from inadvertent disclosures on internet-based file sharing networks. We characterize the security risk for a group of health-care organizations using a direct analysis of leaked files. These files contained highly sensitive medical and personal information that could be maliciously exploited by criminals seeking to commit medical and financial identity theft. We also present evidence of the threat by examining user-issued searches. Our analysis demonstrates both the substantial threat and vulnerability for the health-care sector and the unique complexity exhibited by the US health-care system.

Inventory Control System for a Healthcare Apparel Service Centre with Stockout Risk: A Case Analysis.

PubMed

Pan, An; Hui, Chi-Leung

2017-01-01

Based on the real-world inventory control problem of a capacitated healthcare apparel service centre in Hong Kong which provides tailor-made apparel-making services for the elderly and disabled people, this paper studies a partial backordered continuous review inventory control problem in which the product demand follows a Poisson process with a constant lead time. The system is controlled by an ( Q , r ) inventory policy which incorporate the stockout risk, storage capacity, and partial backlog. The healthcare apparel service centre, under the capacity constraint, aims to minimize the inventory cost and achieving a low stockout risk. To address this challenge, an optimization problem is constructed. A real case-based data analysis is conducted, and the result shows that the expected total cost on an order cycle is reduced substantially at around 20% with our proposed optimal inventory control policy. An extensive sensitivity analysis is conducted to generate additional insights.

Beyond gains and losses: the effect of need on risky choice in framed decisions.

PubMed

Mishra, Sandeep; Fiddick, Laurence

2012-06-01

Substantial evidence suggests people are risk-averse when making decisions described in terms of gains and risk-prone when making decisions described in terms of losses, a phenomenon known as the framing effect. Little research, however, has examined whether framing effects are a product of normative risk-sensitive cognitive processes. In 5 experiments, it is demonstrated that framing effects in the Asian disease problem can be explained by risk-sensitivity theory, which predicts that decision makers adjust risk acceptance on the basis of minimal acceptable thresholds, or need. Both explicit and self-determined need requirements eliminated framing effects and affected risk acceptance consistent with risk-sensitivity theory. Furthermore, negative language choice in loss frames conferred the perception of high need and led to the construction of higher minimal acceptable thresholds. The results of this study suggest that risk-sensitivity theory provides a normative rationale for framing effects based on sensitivity to minimal acceptable thresholds, or needs. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

Morphometric Analysis to Prioritize Sub-Watershed for Flood Risk Assessment in Central Karakoram National Park Using Gis/rs Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syed, N. H.; Rehman, A. A.; Hussain, D.; Ishaq, S.; Khan, A. A.

2017-11-01

Morphometric analysis is vital for any watershed investigation and it is inevitable for flood risk assessment in sub-watershed basins. Present study undertaken to carry out critical evaluation and assessment of sub watershed morphological parameters for flood risk assessment of Central Karakorum National Park (CKNP), where Geographical information system and remote sensing (GIS & RS) approach used for quantifying the parameter and mapping of sub watershed units. ASTER DEM used as a geo-spatial data for watershed delineation and stream network. Morphometric analysis carried out using spatial analyst tool of ArcGIS 10.2. The parameters included were bifurcation ratio (Rb), Drainage Texture (Rt), Circulatory ratio (Rc), Elongated ratio (Re), Drainage density (Dd), Stream Length (Lu), Stream order (Su), Slope and Basin length (Lb) have calculated separately. The analysis revealed that the stream order varies from order 1 to 6 and the total numbers of stream segments of all orders were 52. Multi criteria analysis process used to calculate the risk factor. As an accomplished result, map of sub watershed prioritization developed using weighted standardized risk factor. These results helped to understand sensitivity of flush floods in different sub watersheds of the study area and leaded to better management of the mountainous regions in prospect of flush floods.

A Meta-Analysis of the Relationship between Testicular Microlithiasis and Incidence of Testicular Cancer.

PubMed

Wang, Tao; Liu, LuHao; Luo, JinTai; Liu, TaiSheng; Wei, AnYang

2015-04-29

There are many recent observational studies on testicular microlithiasis (TM) and risk of testicular cancer. Whether TM increases the risk of testicular cancer is still inconclusive. The objective of this updated meta-analysis was to synthesize evidence from clinical observational studies that evaluated the association between TM and testicular cancer. We identified eligible studies by searching the PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library before March 2014. Adjusted relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using random-or fixed-model. A total of 14 studies involving 35,578 participants were included in the meta-analysis. On the basis of the Newcastle Ottawa Scale systematic review, eleven studies were identified as relatively high-quality. TM was strong association with an increased incidence of testicular cancer (RR = 12.70, 95% CI: 8.18-19.71, P < .001), with significant evidence of heterogeneity among these studies (P for heterogeneity < .001, I2 = 82.1%). The subgroup and sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of the results and no publication bias was detected. The present meta-analysis suggests that TM is significantly associated with risk of testicular cancer. More researches are warranted to clarify an understanding of the association between TM and risk of testicular cancer.

Multiparametric Detection of Antibodies against Different EBV Antigens to Predict Risk for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in a High-Risk Population of China.

PubMed

Chen, Hao; Chen, Shulin; Lu, Jie; Wang, Xueping; Li, Jianpei; Li, Linfang; Fu, Jihuan; Scheper, Thomas; Meyer, Wolfgang; Peng, Yu-Hui; Liu, Wanli

2017-09-01

In this study, we aimed to use the combined detection of multiple antibodies against Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) antigens to develop a model for screening and diagnosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Samples of 300 nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients and 494 controls, including 294 healthy subjects (HC), 99 non-nasopharyngeal carcinoma cancer patients (NNPC), and 101 patients with benign nasopharyngeal lesions (BNL), were incubated with the EUROLINE Anti-EBV Profile 2, and band intensities were used to establish a risk prediction model. The nasopharyngeal carcinoma risk probability analysis based on the panel of VCAgp125 IgA, EBNA-1 IgA, EA-D IgA, EBNA-1 IgG, EAD IgG, and VCAp19 IgG displayed the best performance. When using 26.1% as the cutoff point in ROC analysis, the AUC value and sensitivity/specificity were 0.951 and 90.7%/86.2%, respectively, in nasopharyngeal carcinoma and all controls. In nasopharyngeal carcinoma and controls without the non-nasopharyngeal carcinoma and BNL groups, the AUC value and sensitivity/specificity were 0.957 and 90.7%/88.1%, respectively. The diagnostic specificity and sensitivity of the EUROLINE Anti-EBV Profile 2 assay for both nasopharyngeal carcinoma and early-stage nasopharyngeal carcinoma were higher than that of mono-antibody detection by immune-enzymatic assay and real-time PCR (EBV DNA). In the VCA-IgA-negative group, 82.6% of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients showed high probability for nasopharyngeal carcinoma, and the negative predictive value was 97.1%. In the VCA-IgA-positive group, 73.3% of healthy subjects showed low probability. The positive predictive value reached 98.2% in this group. The nasopharyngeal carcinoma risk probability value determined by the EUROLINE Anti-EBV Profile 2 might be a suitable tool for nasopharyngeal carcinoma screening. Cancer Prev Res; 10(9); 542-50. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Consumer-phase Salmonella enterica serovar enteritidis risk assessment for egg-containing food products.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Amirhossein; Moore, Christina M; Yang, Hong; Jaykus, Lee-Ann; Morales, Roberta; Cates, Sheryl C; Cowen, Peter

2006-06-01

We describe a one-dimensional probabilistic model of the role of domestic food handling behaviors on salmonellosis risk associated with the consumption of eggs and egg-containing foods. Six categories of egg-containing foods were defined based on the amount of egg contained in the food, whether eggs are pooled, and the degree of cooking practiced by consumers. We used bootstrap simulation to quantify uncertainty in risk estimates due to sampling error, and sensitivity analysis to identify key sources of variability and uncertainty in the model. Because of typical model characteristics such as nonlinearity, interaction between inputs, thresholds, and saturation points, Sobol's method, a novel sensitivity analysis approach, was used to identify key sources of variability. Based on the mean probability of illness, examples of foods from the food categories ranked from most to least risk of illness were: (1) home-made salad dressings/ice cream; (2) fried eggs/boiled eggs; (3) omelettes; and (4) baked foods/breads. For food categories that may include uncooked eggs (e.g., home-made salad dressings/ice cream), consumer handling conditions such as storage time and temperature after food preparation were the key sources of variability. In contrast, for food categories associated with undercooked eggs (e.g., fried/soft-boiled eggs), the initial level of Salmonella contamination and the log10 reduction due to cooking were the key sources of variability. Important sources of uncertainty varied with both the risk percentile and the food category under consideration. This work adds to previous risk assessments focused on egg production and storage practices, and provides a science-based approach to inform consumer risk communications regarding safe egg handling practices.

Relation of endothelial function to cardiovascular risk in women with sedentary occupations and without known cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Lippincott, Margaret F; Carlow, Andrea; Desai, Aditi; Blum, Arnon; Rodrigo, Maria; Patibandla, Sushmitha; Zalos, Gloria; Smith, Kevin; Schenke, William H; Csako, Gyorgy; Waclawiw, Myron A; Cannon, Richard O

2008-08-01

Our purpose was to determine predictors of endothelial function and potential association with cardiovascular risk in women with sedentary occupations, in whom obesity-associated risk factors may contribute to excess morbidity and mortality. Ninety consecutive women (age range 22 to 63 years, 22 overweight (body mass index [BMI] > or =25 to 29.9 kg/m(2)) and 42 obese (BMI > or = 30 kg/m(2)), had vital signs, lipids, insulin, glucose, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and sex hormones measured. Endothelial function was determined using brachial artery flow-mediated dilation after 5 minutes of forearm ischemia. Treadmill stress testing was performed with gas exchange analysis at peak exercise (peak oxygen consumption [Vo(2)]) to assess cardiorespiratory fitness. Brachial artery reactivity was negatively associated with Framingham risk score (r = -0.3542, p = 0.0007). Univariate predictors of endothelial function included peak Vo(2) (r = 0.4483, p <0.0001), age (r = -0.3420, p = 0.0010), BMI (r = -0.3065, p = 0.0035), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (r = -0.2220, p = 0.0400). Using multiple linear regression analysis with stepwise modeling, peak Vo(2) (p = 0.0003) was the best independent predictor of brachial artery reactivity, with age as the only other variable reaching statistical significance (p = 0.0436) in this model. In conclusion, endothelial function was significantly associated with cardiovascular risk in women with sedentary occupations, who were commonly overweight or obese. Even in the absence of routine exercise, cardiorespiratory fitness, rather than conventional risk factors or body mass, is the dominant predictor of endothelial function and suggests a modifiable approach to risk.

Pelvic floor assessment after delivery: how should women be selected?

PubMed

Soligo, Marco; Livio, Stefania; De Ponti, Elena; Scebba, Ileana; Carpentieri, Federica; Serati, Maurizio; Ferrazzi, Enrico

2016-11-01

Pelvic floor dysfunction after delivery is quite common. New mothers deserve to receive targeted care for pelvic floor dysfunction, but how should women who are at risk be identified and selected for treatment? This study investigated risk factors and puerperal health-seeking behaviours to develop a restrictive patient selection model for postpartum pelvic floor dysfunction assessment. This prospective observational study involved women who were at ≥32 weeks gestational age when they delivered in a tertiary referral maternity hospital in Milan, Italy, between July and December 2014. Eligible women were scheduled for a 3-month postnatal pelvic floor clinic. The adherence rate to the pelvic floor clinic and the prevalence of pelvic floor dysfunctions at 3 months postpartum were recorded. Univariable and logistic multivariable analyses were performed to select risk factors for pelvic floor dysfunctions. Risk factors were then tested for sensitivity and specificity for 3-month postpartum pelvic floor dysfunctions. Of 1606 eligible women, 1293 (80.5%) were included in the analysis; 685 puerperal women (53.0%) adhered to the 3-month postnatal pelvic floor clinic; pelvic floor dysfunctions were detected in 238 women (34.7%). Four elements emerged as risk factors: symptoms before pregnancy (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.15-2.56; p=0.008), symptoms during pregnancy (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.49-3.06; p<0.0001), vacuum extractor use (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.04-2.54; p=0.034), and severe perineal tears (OR 19.45, 95% CI 2.42-156.15; p=0.005). The combined sensitivity and specificity for the 4 risk factors were 82% and 39%, respectively. Internal risk factors analysis offers the potential to efficiently restrict patient selection for follow-up. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

PubMed

Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

2016-08-13

Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic economic frameworks for disaster risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dulac, Guillaume; Forni, Marc

2013-04-01

Starting from the general concept of risk, we set up an economic analysis framework for Disaster Risk Management (DRM) investment. It builds on uncertainty management techniques - notably Monte Carlo simulations - and includes both a risk and performance metrics adapted to recurring issues in disaster risk management as entertained by governments and international organisations. This type of framework proves to be enlightening in several regards, and is thought to ease the promotion of DRM projects as "investments" rather than "costs to be born" and allow for meaningful comparison between DRM and other sectors. We then look at the specificities of disaster risk investments of medium to large scales through this framework, where some "invariants" can be identified, notably: (i) it makes more sense to perform analysis over long-term horizons -space and time scales are somewhat linked; (ii) profiling of the fluctuations of the gains and losses of DRM investments over long periods requires the ability to handle possibly highly volatile variables; (iii) complexity increases with the scale which results in a higher sensitivity of the analytic framework on the results; (iv) as the perimeter of analysis (time, theme and space-wise) is widened, intrinsic parameters of the project tend to weight lighter. This puts DRM in a very different perspective from traditional modelling, which usually builds on more intrinsic features of the disaster as it relates to the scientific knowledge about hazard(s). As models hardly accommodate for such complexity or "data entropy" (they require highly structured inputs), there is a need for a complementary approach to understand risk at global scale. The proposed framework suggests opting for flexible ad hoc modelling of specific issues consistent with one's objective, risk and performance metrics. Such tailored solutions are strongly context-dependant (time and budget, sensitivity of the studied variable in the economic framework) and can range from simple elicitation of data from a subject matter expert to calibrate a probability distribution to more advanced stochastic modelling. This approach can be referred to more as a proficiency in the language of uncertainty rather than modelling per se in the sense that it allows for greater flexibility to adapt a given context. In a real decision making context, one seldom has neither time nor budget resources to investigate all of these variables thoroughly, hence the importance of being able to prioritize the level of effort among them. Under the proposed framework, this can be done in an optimised fashion. The point here consists in applying probabilistic sensitivity analysis together with the fundamentals of the economic value of information; the framework as built is well suited to such considerations, and variables can be ranked according to their contribution to risk understanding. Efforts to deal with second order uncertainties on variables prove to be valuable when dealing with the economic value of sample information.

Association between allelic variants of the human glucocorticoid receptor gene and autoimmune diseases: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Herrera, Cristian; Marcos, Miguel; Carbonell, Cristina; Mirón-Canelo, José Antonio; Espinosa, Gerard; Cervera, Ricard; Chamorro, Antonio-Javier

2018-05-01

The human glucocorticoid receptor gene (NR3C1) is considered to play a role in the differences and sensitivities of the glucocorticoid response in individuals with autoimmune diseases. The objective of this study was to examine by means of a systematic review previous findings regarding allelic variants of NR3C1 in relation to the risk of developing systemic autoimmune diseases. Studies that analysed the genotype distribution of NR3C1 allelic variants among patients with systemic autoimmune diseases were retrieved. A meta-analysis was conducted with a random effects model. Odds ratios (ORs) and their confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. In addition, sub-analysis by ethnicity, sensitivity analysis and tests for heterogeneity of the results were performed. Eleven studies met the inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. We found no evidence that the analysed NR3C1 polymorphisms, rs6198, rs56149945, and rs6189/rs6190, modulate the risk of developing a systemic autoimmune disease. Nonetheless, a protective role for the minor allele of rs41423247 was found among Caucasians (OR=0.78; 95% CI: 0.65, 0.92; P=0.004). A subgroup analysis according to underlying diseases revealed no significant association either for Behçet's disease or rheumatoid arthritis, while correlations between NR3C1 polymorphisms and disease activity or response to glucocorticoids could not be evaluated due to insufficient data. There is no clear evidence that the analysed NR3C1 allelic variants confer a risk for developing systemic autoimmune diseases although the minor G allele of rs41423247 may be protective among Caucasians. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Weighing the Social and Ethical Considerations of Maternal-Fetal Surgery.

PubMed

Antiel, Ryan M; Flake, Alan W; Collura, Christopher A; Johnson, Mark P; Rintoul, Natalie E; Lantos, John D; Curlin, Farr A; Tilburt, Jon C; Brown, Stephen D; Feudtner, Chris

2017-12-01

The ethics of maternal-fetal surgery involves weighing the importance of potential benefits, risks, and other consequences involving the pregnant woman, fetus, and other family members. We assessed clinicians' ratings of the importance of 9 considerations relevant to maternal-fetal surgery. This study was a discrete choice experiment contained within a 2015 national mail-based survey of 1200 neonatologists, pediatric surgeons, and maternal-fetal medicine physicians, with latent class analysis subsequently used to identify groups of physicians with similar ratings. Of 1176 eligible participants, 660 (56%) completed the discrete choice experiment. The highest-ranked consideration was of neonatal benefits, which was followed by consideration of the risk of maternal complications. By using latent class analysis, we identified 4 attitudinal groups with similar patterns of prioritization: "fetocentric" ( n = 232), risk-sensitive ( n = 197), maternal autonomy ( n = 167), and family impact and social support ( n = 64). Neonatologists were more likely to be in the fetocentric group, whereas surgeons were more likely to be in the risk-sensitive group, and maternal-fetal medicine physicians made up the largest percentage of the family impact and social support group. Physicians vary in how they weigh the importance of social and ethical considerations regarding maternal-fetal surgery. Understanding these differences may help prevent or mitigate disagreements or tensions that may arise in the management of these patients. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Cost-effectiveness of two versus three or more doses of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria during pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study of meta-analysis and cost data.

PubMed

Fernandes, Silke; Sicuri, Elisa; Kayentao, Kassoum; van Eijk, Anne Maria; Hill, Jenny; Webster, Jayne; Were, Vincent; Akazili, James; Madanitsa, Mwayi; ter Kuile, Feiko O; Hanson, Kara

2015-03-01

In 2012, WHO changed its recommendation for intermittent preventive treatment of malaria during pregnancy (IPTp) from two doses to monthly doses of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine during the second and third trimesters, but noted the importance of a cost-effectiveness analysis to lend support to the decision of policy makers. We therefore estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of IPTp with three or more (IPTp-SP3+) versus two doses of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP2). For this analysis, we used data from a 2013 meta-analysis of seven studies in sub-Saharan Africa. We developed a decision tree model with a lifetime horizon. We analysed the base case from a societal perspective. We did deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses with appropriate parameter ranges and distributions for settings with low, moderate, and high background risk of low birthweight, and did a separate analysis for HIV-negative women. Parameters in the model were obtained for all countries included in the original meta-analysis. We did simulations in hypothetical cohorts of 1000 pregnant women receiving either IPTp-SP3+ or IPTp-SP2. We calculated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for low birthweight, severe to moderate anaemia, and clinical malaria. We calculated cost estimates from data obtained in observational studies, exit surveys, and from public procurement databases. We give financial and economic costs in constant 2012 US$. The main outcome measure was the incremental cost per DALY averted. The delivery of IPTp-SP3+ to 1000 pregnant women averted 113·4 DALYs at an incremental cost of $825·67 producing an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $7·28 per DALY averted. The results remained robust in the deterministic sensitivity analysis. In the probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the ICER was $7·7 per DALY averted for moderate risk of low birthweight, $19·4 per DALY averted for low risk, and $4·0 per DALY averted for high risk. The ICER for HIV-negative women was $6·2 per DALY averted. Our findings lend strong support to the WHO guidelines that recommend a monthly dose of IPTp-SP from the second trimester onwards. Malaria in Pregnancy Consortium and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2015 Fernandes et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by .. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity and specificity of the Brøset Violence Checklist as predictor of violence in forensic psychiatry.

PubMed

Hvidhjelm, Jacob; Sestoft, Dorte; Skovgaard, Lene Theil; Bue Bjorner, Jakob

2014-11-01

Violence and aggressive behavior within psychiatric facilities are serious work environment problems, which have negative consequences for both patients and staff. It is therefore of great importance to reduce both the number and the severity of these violent incidents to improve quality of care. To evaluate the specificity and sensitivity of the Brøset Violence Checklist (BVC) as a predictor of violent incidents for Danish forensic psychiatry patients. A total of 156 patients were assessed three times daily with the BVC for 24 months. All aggressive or violent incidents were recorded using the Staff Observation Aggression Scale-Revised (SOAS-R). SOAS-R scores of 9 or more defined violent incidents. Data were analyzed using standard logistic regression models as well as models incorporating a random person effect. We used receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis to evaluate different BVC thresholds. Of a total of 139,579 BVC registrations we found 1999 scores above 0 and 419 violent incidents. The BVC score was a strong predictor of violence. For the standard cut-off point of 3, specificity was 0.997 and sensitivity was 0.656. For the general risk of violence seen in this study, the risk of violence given a BVC score > 3 (positive predictive value) was 37.2%, and the risk of violence given a BVC score < 3 (negative predictive value) was 0.1%. The BVC showed satisfactory specificity and sensitivity as a predictor of the short-term risk of violence against staff and others by patients in a forensic setting.

Multi-risk infants: predicting attachment security from sociodemographic, psychosocial, and health risk among African-American preterm infants.

PubMed

Candelaria, Margo; Teti, Douglas M; Black, Maureen M

2011-08-01

Ecological and transactional theories link child outcomes to accumulated risk. This study hypothesized that cumulative risk was negatively related to attachment, and that maternal sensitivity mediated linkages between risk and attachment. One hundred and twelve high-risk African-American premature infant-mother dyads participated. Psychosocial (maternal depression, stress and self-efficacy) and sociodemographic risk (poverty, maternal education, marital status) were maternal self-report (0-4 months). Infant health risk was obtained from hospital charts. Infant-mother attachment (12 months) and maternal sensitivity (4 months) were assessed with Q-sort measures. Psychosocial and sociodemographic risk, but not infant health risk, negatively related to attachment. Both were mediated by maternal sensitivity. The impact of risk domains on attachment security was mediated by maternal sensitivity. Results emphasize the need for early intervention programs targeting premature infants to identify and address environmental and personal factors that place parenting at risk. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2011 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Risk stratification of gallbladder polyps larger than 10 mm using high-resolution ultrasonography and texture analysis.

PubMed

Choi, Tae Won; Kim, Jung Hoon; Park, Sang Joon; Ahn, Su Joa; Joo, Ijin; Han, Joon Koo

2018-01-01

To assess important features for risk stratification of gallbladder (GB) polyps >10 mm using high-resolution ultrasonography (HRUS) and texture analysis. We included 136 patients with GB polyps (>10 mm) who underwent both HRUS and cholecystectomy (non-neoplastic, n = 58; adenomatous, n = 32; and carcinoma, n = 46). Two radiologists retrospectively assessed HRUS findings and texture analysis. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify significant predictors for neoplastic polyps and carcinomas. Single polyp (OR, 3.680-3.856) and larger size (OR, 1.450-1.477) were independently associated with neoplastic polyps (p < 0.05). In a single or polyp >14 mm, sensitivity for differentiating neoplastic from non-neoplastic polyps was 92.3%. To differentiate carcinoma from adenoma, sessile shape (OR, 9.485-41.257), larger size (OR, 1.267-1.303), higher skewness (OR, 6.382) and lower grey-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) contrast (OR, 0.963) were significant predictors (p < 0.05). In a polyp >22 mm or sessile, sensitivity for differentiating carcinomas from adenomas was 93.5-95.7%. If a polyp demonstrated at least one HRUS finding and at least one texture feature, the specificity for diagnosing carcinoma was increased to 90.6-93.8%. In a GB polyp >10 mm, single and diameter >14 mm were useful for predicting neoplastic polyps. In neoplastic polyps, sessile shape, diameter >22 mm, higher skewness and lower GLCM contrast were useful for predicting carcinoma. • Risk of neoplastic polyp is low in <14 mm and multiple polyps • A sessile polyp or >22 mm has increased risk for GB carcinomas • Higher skewness and lower GLCM contrast are predictors of GB carcinoma • HRUS is useful for risk stratification of GB polyps >1 cm.

[Usefulness of scoring risk for adverse outcomes in older patients with the Identification of Seniors at Risk scale and the Triage Risk Screening Tool: a meta-analysis].

PubMed

Rivero-Santana, Amado; Del Pino-Sedeño, Tasmania; Ramallo-Fariña, Yolanda; Vergara, Itziar; Serrano-Aguilar, Pedro

2017-02-01

A considerable proportion of the geriatric population experiences unfavorable outcomes of hospital emergency department care. An assessment of risk for adverse outcomes would facilitate making changes in clinical management by adjusting available resources to needs according to an individual patient's risk. Risk assessment tools are available, but their prognostic precision varies. This systematic review sought to quantify the prognostic precision of 2 geriatric screening and risk assessment tools commonly used in emergency settings for patients at high risk of adverse outcomes (revisits, functional deterioration, readmissions, or death): the Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) scale and the Triage Risk Screening Tool (TRST). We searched PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and SCOPUS, with no date limits, to find relevant studies. Quality was assessed with the QUADAS-2 checklist (for quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies). We pooled data for prognostic yield reported for the ISAR and TRST scores for each short- and medium-term outcome using bivariate random-effects modeling. The sensitivity of the ISAR scoring system as a whole ranged between 67% and 99%; specificity fell between 21% and 41%. TRST sensitivity ranged between 52% and 75% and specificity between 39% and 51%.We conclude that the tools currently used to assess risk of adverse outcomes in patients of advanced age attended in hospital emergency departments do not have adequate prognostic precision to be clinically useful.

Evaluating aquatic invertebrate vulnerability to insecticides based on intrinsic sensitivity, biological traits, and toxic mode of action.

PubMed

Rico, Andreu; Van den Brink, Paul J

2015-08-01

In the present study, the authors evaluated the vulnerability of aquatic invertebrates to insecticides based on their intrinsic sensitivity and their population-level recovery potential. The relative sensitivity of invertebrates to 5 different classes of insecticides was calculated at the genus, family, and order levels using the acute toxicity data available in the US Environmental Protection Agency ECOTOX database. Biological trait information was linked to the calculated relative sensitivity to evaluate correlations between traits and sensitivity and to calculate a vulnerability index, which combines intrinsic sensitivity and traits describing the recovery potential of populations partially exposed to insecticides (e.g., voltinism, flying strength, occurrence in drift). The analysis shows that the relative sensitivity of arthropods depends on the insecticide mode of action. Traits such as degree of sclerotization, size, and respiration type showed good correlation to sensitivity and can be used to make predictions for invertebrate taxa without a priori sensitivity knowledge. The vulnerability analysis revealed that some of the Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa were vulnerable to all insecticide classes and indicated that particular gastropod and bivalve species were potentially vulnerable. Microcrustaceans (e.g., daphnids, copepods) showed low potential vulnerability, particularly in lentic ecosystems. The methods described in the present study can be used for the selection of focal species to be included as part of ecological scenarios and higher tier risk assessments. © 2015 SETAC.

Are iso-osmolar, as compared to low-osmolar, contrast media cost-effective in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization? An economic analysis.

PubMed

Hiremath, Swapnil; Akbari, Ayub; Wells, George A; Chow, Benjamin J W

2018-04-23

Contrast-induced acute kidney injury is a prominent complication following cardiac catheterization, though the risk has progressively decreased in recent times with appropriate risk stratification and use of safer contrast agents. Despite data supporting further lowering of risk with the iso-osmolar agent, iodixanol, uptake has lagged, perhaps due to increased upfront cost of this agent. We undertook an economic analysis to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a strategy utilizing iodixanol compared to using a low-osmolar contrast agent. We created a Markov model to evaluate the two strategies, and included a differential relative risk of contrast-induced acute kidney injury, based on a systematic review of the literature. Downstream clinical events, including need for dialysis and mortality, were modeled using data from existing published literature. A third-party payer perspective was utilized for the analysis and presentation of the primary economic analysis. The strategy of using iodixanol dominated in both the low-risk and high-risk base case analyses. However, the difference was quite small in the low-risk scenario (lifetime cost: C$678,034 vs. C$678,059 and life expectancy: 19.80 vs. 19.72 years). The difference was more marked (life expectancy 15.65 vs. 14.15 years and cost C$680,989 vs. C$682,023) in the high-risk case analysis. This was robust across most of the variables tested in sensitivity analyses. The use of iodixanol, compared with low-osmolar contrast agents, for cardiac catheterization, results in a small benefit clinical outcomes, and in a savings in direct healthcare costs. Overall, our analysis supports the use of iodixanol for cardiac catheterization, especially in patients at high risk of acute kidney injury.

Perinatal risk factors for sensitization, atopic dermatitis and wheezing during the first year of life (PIPO study).

PubMed

Hagendorens, M M; Bridts, C H; Lauwers, K; van Nuijs, S; Ebo, D G; Vellinga, A; De Clerck, L S; Van Bever, H P; Weyler, J J; Stevens, W J

2005-06-01

To evaluate the influence of perinatal environmental factors on early sensitization, atopic dermatitis and wheezing during the first year. Information on pregnancy-related factors, parental atopic history, environmental factors and the clinical course of the infant until age one was gathered by questionnaires, as part of a prospective birth cohort study (Prospective study on the Influence of Perinatal factors on the Occurrence of asthma and allergies [PIPO-study]). Quantification of total and specific IgE was performed in 810 children and their parents. Early sensitization was found in 107/810 (13%) of the infants. Multiple regression analysis showed that specific IgE in fathers was a risk factor for early sensitization in their daughters (adjusted odds ratios (OR(adj)) 2.21 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-4.49); P=0.03), whereas in boys, day care attendance was shown to be protective for early sensitization (OR(adj) 0.38 (95% CI 0.20-0.71); P=0.001). Atopic dermatitis occurred in 195/792 infants (25%). Specific IgE in the mother (OR(adj) 1.52 (95% CI 1.06-2.19); P=0.02) and in the infant (OR(adj) 4.20 (95% CI 2.63-6.68); P<0.001) were both risk factors for the occurence of atopic dermatitis, whereas postnatal exposure to cats was negatively associated with atopic dermatitis (OR(adj) 0.68 (0.47-0.97); P=0.03). Postnatal exposure to cigarette smoke (OR(adj) 3.31 (95% CI 1.79-6.09); P<0.001) and day care attendance (OR(adj) 1.96 (95% CI 1.18-3.23); P=0.009) were significantly associated with early wheezing, which occurred in 25% (197/795) of the infants. The effect of paternal sensitization and day care attendance on sensitization is gender dependent. Maternal sensitization predisposes for atopic dermatitis, whereas postnatal exposure to cats had a protective effect.

Cost-utility analysis of duloxetine in osteoarthritis: a US private payer perspective.

PubMed

Wielage, Ronald C; Bansal, Megha; Andrews, J Scott; Klein, Robert W; Happich, Michael

2013-06-01

Duloxetine has recently been approved in the USA for chronic musculoskeletal pain, including osteoarthritis and chronic low back pain. The cost effectiveness of duloxetine in osteoarthritis has not previously been assessed. Duloxetine is targeted as post first-line (after acetaminophen) treatment of moderate to severe pain. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost effectiveness of duloxetine in the treatment of osteoarthritis from a US private payer perspective compared with other post first-line oral treatments, including nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), and both strong and weak opioids. A cost-utility analysis was performed using a discrete-state, time-dependent semi-Markov model based on the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) model documented in its 2008 osteoarthritis guidelines. The model was extended for opioids by adding titration, discontinuation and additional adverse events (AEs). A life-long time horizon was adopted to capture the full consequences of NSAID-induced AEs. Fourteen health states comprised the structure of the model: treatment without persistent AE, six during-AE states, six post-AE states and death. Treatment-specific utilities were calculated using the transfer-to-utility method and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) total scores from a meta-analysis of osteoarthritis clinical trials of 12 weeks and longer. Costs for 2011 were estimated using Red Book, The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project database, the literature and, sparingly, expert opinion. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken, as well as subgroup analyses of patients over 65 years old and a population at greater risk of NSAID-related AEs. In the base case the model estimated naproxen to be the lowest total-cost treatment, tapentadol the highest cost, and duloxetine the most effective after considering AEs. Duloxetine accumulated 0.027 discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) more than naproxen and 0.013 more than oxycodone. Celecoxib was dominated by naproxen, tramadol was subject to extended dominance, and strong opioids were dominated by duloxetine. The model estimated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$47,678 per QALY for duloxetine versus naproxen. One-way sensitivity analysis identified the probabilities of NSAID-related cardiovascular AEs as the inputs to which the ICER was most sensitive when duloxetine was compared with an NSAID. When compared with a strong opioid, duloxetine dominated the opioid under nearly all sensitivity analysis scenarios. When compared with tramadol, the ICER was most sensitive to the costs of duloxetine and tramadol. In subgroup analysis, the cost per QALY for duloxetine versus naproxen fell to US$24,125 for patients over 65 years and to US$18,472 for a population at high risk of cardiovascular and gastrointestinal AEs. The model estimated that duloxetine was potentially cost effective in the base-case population and more cost effective for subgroups over 65 years or at high risk of NSAID-related AEs. In sensitivity analysis, duloxetine dominated all strong opioids in nearly all scenarios.

Private participation in infrastructure: A risk analysis of long-term contracts in power sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceran, Nisangul

The objective of this dissertation is to assess whether the private participation in energy sector through long term contracting, such as Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) type investments, is an efficient way of promoting efficiency in the economy. To this end; the theoretical literature on the issue is discussed, the experience of several developing countries are examined, and a BOT project, which is undertaken by the Enron company in Turkey, has been studied in depth as a case study. Different risk analysis techniques, including sensitivity and probabilistic risk analysis with the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method have been applied to assess the financial feasibility and risks of the case study project, and to shed light on the level of rent-seeking in the BOT agreements. Although data on rent seeking and corruption is difficult to obtain, the analysis of case study investment using the sensitivity and MCS method provided some information that can be used in assessing the level of rent-seeking in BOT projects. The risk analysis enabled to test the sustainability of the long-term BOT contracts through the analysis of projects financial feasibility with and without the government guarantees in the project. The approach of testing the sustainability of the project under different scenarios is helpful to understand the potential costs and contingent liabilities for the government and project's impact on a country's overall economy. The results of the risk analysis made by the MCS method for the BOT project used as the case study strongly suggest that, the BOT projects does not serve to the interest of the society and transfers substantial amount of public money to the private companies, implying severe governance problems. It is found that not only government but also private sector may be reluctant about full privatization of infrastructure due to several factors such as involvement of large sunk costs, very long time period for returns to be received, political and macroeconomic uncertainties and insufficient institutional and regulatory environment. It is concluded that the BOT type infrastructure projects are not an efficient way of promoting private sector participation in infrastructure. They tend to serve the interest of rent-seekers rather than the interest of the society. Since concession contracts and Treasury guarantees shift the commercial risk to government, the private sector has no incentive to be efficient. The concession agreements distort the market conditions by preventing free completion in the market.

Augmentation index is a better marker for cardiovascular risk in young Malaysian males. A comparison of involvement of pulse wave velocity, augmentation index, and C-reactive protein.

PubMed

Aminuddin, Amilia; Chellappan, Kalaivani; Maskon, Oteh; Zakaria, Zaiton; Karim, Aminuddin A; Ngah, Wan Z; Nordin, Nor Anita M

2014-02-01

To determine the association between carotid femoral pulse wave velocity (PWVCF) and augmentation index (AI) with future cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, and to assess whether high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) is an important mediator towards these vascular changes, among young men. This cross-sectional study was conducted at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Center, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia from July 2011 to December 2012. Two hundred and eleven young men were recruited. The PWVCF and AI were measured using Vicorder. High sensitivity C-reactive protein was measured by using immunological methods. The future CVD risk was assessed by Framingham risk score (FRS) and age adjusted FRS (A-FRS). Data for analysis was conducted using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences Version 15 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). The mean age of the subjects was 27.09 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 26.39-27.79) years old. Those with ≥2 risk factors had significantly higher AI [10.09 (95% CI: 9.06-11.12) versus 6.56 (95% CI: 5.54-7.57) (p=0.001), but not PWVCF 7.45 (95% CI: 7.29-7.61) m/s versus 7.29 (95% CI: 7.06-7.51) m/s, (p=0.90) when compared to the healthy subjects. High sensitivity C-reactive protein was not an independent determinant for PWVCF and AI. Only AI was significantly associated with FRS and A-FRS (p=0.0001). To assess the impact of risk factors on vascular damage and for future assessment of CVD risk among the young men, AI may be a better marker than PWVCF. The increase in AI among these subjects was not related to hs-CRP.

Effectiveness of landslide risk mitigation strategies in Shihmen Watershed, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chun-Yi; Chen, Su-Chin

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to establish landslide risk analysis procedures that can be used to analyze landslide risk in a watershed scale and to assess the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Landslide risk analysis encompassed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability of elements at risk, and community resilience capacity. First, landslide spatial probability, landslide temporal probability, and landslide area probability were joined to estimate the probability of landslides with an area exceeding a certain threshold in each slope unit. Second, the expected property and life losses were both analyzed in vulnerability analysis. Different elements at risk were assigned corresponding values, and then used in conjunction with the vulnerabilities to carry out quantitative analysis. Third, the resilience capacity of different communities was calculated based on the scores obtained through community checklists and the weights of individual items, including "the participation experience of disaster prevention drill," "real-time monitoring mechanism of community," "autonomous monitoring of residents," and "disaster prevention volunteer." Finally, the landslide probabilities, vulnerability analysis results, and resilience capacities were combined to assess landslide risk in Shihmen Watershed. In addition, the risks before and after the implementation of non-structural disaster prevention strategies were compared to determine the benefits of various strategies, and subsequently benefit-cost analysis was performed. Communities with high benefit-cost ratios included Hualing, Yisheng, Siouluan, and Gaoyi. The watershed as a whole had a benefit-cost ratio far greater than 1, indicating that the effectiveness of strategies was greater than the investment cost, and these measures were thus cost-effective. The results of factor sensitivity analysis revealed that changes in vulnerability and mortality rates would increase the uncertainty of risk, and that raise in annual interest rates or reduction in life cycle of measures would decrease the benefit-cost ratio. However, with regard to effectiveness analysis, these changes did not reverse the cost-effective inference.

[Risk Assessment of Trihalomethane Production Using the Beijiang River and the Pearl River, Guangzhou as Drinking Water Sources].

PubMed

Zhong, Hui-zhou; Wei, Chao-hai

2015-04-01

In order to investigate the risk of trihalomethane formation potential (THMFP) in finished waters as drinking water sources, 70 samples, 114 samples, and 70 samples were collected in November 2013, April 2014 and July 2014, respectively from different locations in the Beijiang River and the Pearl River. After filtration by 0.45 μm filter membrane, a total of 254 samples were chlorinated using Uniform Formation Condition (UFC) method for determining their THM Formation Potential (THMFP). The cancer risk and non-cancer risk of THMs were estimated using USEPA risk assessment model while dominant factors for total risk potential were estimated using sensitivity analysis. Among four THM species, chloroform( CF) was the highest ranging from 101.92-2 590.85 μg x L(-1), followed by bromodichloromethane (BDCM), dibromochloromethane (DBCM) and bromoform (BF). Chloroform, the major THMs speciation, accounted for 96.17% of total THMs. Non-cancer and cancer risk from ingesting THMs was estimated. The result indicated that non-cancer risk of THMs level ranged from 2.03 x 10(-7) to 1.00 x 10(-5) and was not more than 1.0 x 10(-5), the minimum or negligible non-cancer risk level defined by the USEPA. The average cancer risk of THMs was 2.91 x 10(-4) for male and 3.30 x 10(-4) for female in the two rivers, respectively, exceeding the minimum or negligible risk level defined by the USEPA (1. 0 x 10 ~6). The difference of cancer risk between the two rivers was that BDCM ranging from 2.50 x 10(-5) to 6.37 x 10(-4) was approximately twice that of CF in Beijing River. BDCM played an important role in the total risk in the Beijiang River while CF played an important role in the total risk in the Pearl River, Guangzhou. Sensitivity analysis showed that CF played an important role in the estimation of total risk potential, and that the direct utilization of water sources from Beijiang River and the Pearl River Guangzhou is dangerous, thus pretreatment is necessary before chlorination.

Optimal replenishment and credit policy in supply chain inventory model under two levels of trade credit with time- and credit-sensitive demand involving default risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahata, Puspita; Mahata, Gour Chandra; Kumar De, Sujit

2018-03-01

Traditional supply chain inventory modes with trade credit usually only assumed that the up-stream suppliers offered the down-stream retailers a fixed credit period. However, in practice the retailers will also provide a credit period to customers to promote the market competition. In this paper, we formulate an optimal supply chain inventory model under two levels of trade credit policy with default risk consideration. Here, the demand is assumed to be credit-sensitive and increasing function of time. The major objective is to determine the retailer's optimal credit period and cycle time such that the total profit per unit time is maximized. The existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution to the presented model are examined, and an easy method is also shown to find the optimal inventory policies of the considered problem. Finally, numerical examples and sensitive analysis are presented to illustrate the developed model and to provide some managerial insights.

The cut-off values of anthropometric variables for predicting mild cognitive impairment in Malaysian older adults: a large population based cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Won, Huiloo; Abdul, Manaf Zahara; Mat Ludin, Arimi Fitri; Omar, Mohd Azahadi; Razali, Rosdinom; Shahar, Suzana

2017-01-01

Older adults are at risk of mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and simple anthropometric measurements can be used to screen for this condition. Thus, the aim of this study was to explore the cut-off values of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) for predicting the risk of MCI in older Malaysian adults. A total of 2,240 Malaysian older adults aged ≥60 years were recruited using multistage random sampling in a population based cross-sectional study. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the cut-off values of BMI and WC with optimum sensitivity and specificity for the detection of MCI. Age, gender, years of education, smoking habit, alcohol consumption, depression, and medical conditions were used as confounding factors in this analysis. A BMI cut-off value of 26 kg/m 2 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.725; sensitivity 90.5%; specificity 38.8%) was appropriate in identifying the risk of getting MCI in both men and women. The optimum WC cut-offs for likelihood of MCI were 90 cm (AUC 0.745; sensitivity 78.0%; specificity 59.8%) for men and 82 cm (AUC 0.714; sensitivity 84.3%; specificity 49.7%) for women. The optimum calf circumference (CC) cut-off values for identifying MCI were 29 cm (AUC 0.731; sensitivity 72.6%; specificity 61.1%) for men and 26 cm (AUC 0.598; sensitivity 79.1%; specificity 45.3%) for women. The cut-off values could be advocated and used as part of the screening of MCI among older Malaysian adults. There is a need to further determine the predictive values of these cut-off points on outcomes through longitudinal study design.

Association between Work-Related Stress and Risk for Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Sui, Hua; Sun, Nijing; Zhan, Libin; Lu, Xiaoguang; Chen, Tuo; Mao, Xinyong

2016-01-01

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly around the world. Work-related stress is thought to be a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes; however, this association has not been widely studied, and the findings that have been reported are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to explore the association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes. A systematic literature search and manual search limited to articles published in English were performed to select the prospective cohort studies evaluated the association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes up to September 2014 from four electronic databases including PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science. A random-effects model was used to estimate the overall risk. No significant association was found between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes based on meta-analysis of seven prospective cohort studies involving 214,086 participants and 5,511 cases (job demands: relative risk 0.94 [95% confidence interval 0.72-1.23]; decision latitude: relative risk 1.16 [0.85-1.58]; job strain: relative risk 1.12 [.0.95-1.32]). However, an association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes was observed in women (job strain: relative risk 1.22 [1.01-1.46]) (P = 0.04). A sensitivity analysis conducted by excluding one study in each turn yielded similar results. No publication bias was detected with a funnel plot despite the limited number of studies included in the analysis. The results of this meta-analysis did not confirm a direct association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes. In subgroup analyses we found job strain was a risk factor for type 2 diabetes in women.

Falls Risk Prediction for Older Inpatients in Acute Care Medical Wards: Is There an Interest to Combine an Early Nurse Assessment and the Artificial Neural Network Analysis?

PubMed

Beauchet, O; Noublanche, F; Simon, R; Sekhon, H; Chabot, J; Levinoff, E J; Kabeshova, A; Launay, C P

2018-01-01

Identification of the risk of falls is important among older inpatients. This study aims to examine performance criteria (i.e.; sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy) for fall prediction resulting from a nurse assessment and an artificial neural networks (ANNs) analysis in older inpatients hospitalized in acute care medical wards. A total of 848 older inpatients (mean age, 83.0±7.2 years; 41.8% female) admitted to acute care medical wards in Angers University hospital (France) were included in this study using an observational prospective cohort design. Within 24 hours after admission of older inpatients, nurses performed a bedside clinical assessment. Participants were separated into non-fallers and fallers (i.e.; ≥1 fall during hospitalization stay). The analysis was conducted using three feed forward ANNs (multilayer perceptron [MLP], averaged neural network, and neuroevolution of augmenting topologies [NEAT]). Seventy-three (8.6%) participants fell at least once during their hospital stay. ANNs showed a high specificity, regardless of which ANN was used, and the highest value reported was with MLP (99.8%). In contrast, sensitivity was lower, with values ranging between 98.4 to 14.8%. MLP had the highest accuracy (99.7). Performance criteria for fall prediction resulting from a bedside nursing assessment and an ANNs analysis was associated with a high specificity but a low sensitivity, suggesting that this combined approach should be used more as a diagnostic test than a screening test when considering older inpatients in acute care medical ward.

A Healthy Dietary Pattern Reduces Lung Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Sun, Yanlai; Li, Zhenxiang; Li, Jianning; Li, Zengjun; Han, Jianjun

2016-03-04

Diet and nutrients play an important role in cancer development and progress; a healthy dietary pattern has been found to be associated with several types of cancer. However, the association between a healthy eating pattern and lung cancer risk is still unclear. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis to evaluate whether a healthy eating pattern might reduce lung cancer risk. We identified relevant studies from the PubMed and Embase databases up to October 2015, and the relative risks were extracted and combined by the fixed-effects model when no substantial heterogeneity was observed; otherwise, the random-effects model was employed. Subgroup and publication bias analyses were also performed. Finally, eight observational studies were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled relative risk of lung cancer for the highest vs. lowest category of healthy dietary pattern was 0.81 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.75-0.86), and no significant heterogeneity was detected. The relative risks (RRs) for non-smokers, former smokers and current smokers were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.63-1.27), 0.74 (95% CI: 0.62-0.89) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.79-0.93), respectively. The results remained stable in subgroup analyses by other confounders and sensitivity analysis. The results of our meta-analysis suggest that a healthy dietary pattern is associated with a lower lung cancer risk, and they provide more beneficial evidence for changing the diet pattern in the general population.

VISUAL CONTRAST SENSITIVITY: A SENSITIVE INDICATOR OF NEUROTOXICITY FOR RISK ASSESSMENT AND CLINICAL APPLICATIONS.

EPA Science Inventory

Both human-health risk assessments of adverse effects from chronic, environmental exposures to neurotoxics and clinical practice are in need of objective indicators sensitive to the early stages of disruption in neurologic function; risk assessment for the purposes of hazard iden...

Disgusted by Sexual Abuse: Exploring the Association Between Disgust Sensitivity and Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms Among Mothers of Sexually Abused Children.

PubMed

van Delft, Ivanka; Finkenauer, Catrin; Tybur, Joshua M; Lamers-Winkelman, Francien

2016-06-01

Nonoffending mothers of sexually abused children often exhibit high levels of posttraumatic stress (PTS) symptoms. Emerging evidence suggests that trait-like individual differences in sensitivity to disgust play a role in the development of PTS symptoms. One such individual difference, disgust sensitivity, has not been examined as far as we are aware among victims of secondary traumatic stress. The current study examined associations between disgust sensitivity and PTS symptoms among mothers of sexually abused children (N = 72). Mothers completed the Impact of Event Scale-Revised and the Three Domain Disgust Scale (Tybur, Lieberman, & Griskevicius, 2009). More than one third of mothers scored above a suggested cutoff (mean score = 1.5) for high levels of PTS symptoms. Hierarchical linear regression analysis results indicated that sexual disgust sensitivity (β = .39, p = .002) was associated with PTS symptoms (R(2) = .18). An interaction analysis showed that sexual disgust sensitivity was associated with maternal PTS symptoms only when the perpetrator was not biologically related to the child (β = -.32, p = .047; R(2) = .28). Our findings suggested that sexual disgust sensitivity may be a risk factor for developing PTS symptoms among mothers of sexually abused children. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

Exposure Perception as a Key Indicator of Risk Perception and Acceptance of Sources of Radio Frequency Electromagnetic Fields

PubMed Central

Wiedemann, Peter M.; Brown, Tim W. C.

2015-01-01

The presented survey was conducted in six European countries as an online study. A total of 2454 subjects participated. Two main research questions were investigated: firstly, how does the cognitive, moral, and affective framing of radio frequency electromagnetic field (RF EMF) exposure perception influence RF EMF risk perception? Secondly, can the deployment of mobile phone base stations have greater acceptance with RF EMF exposure reduction? The findings with respect to the first question clearly indicated that the cognitive framed exposure perception is the main determinant of RF EMF risk perception. The concomitant sensitivity to exposure strength offers an opportunity to improve the acceptance of base stations by exposure reduction. A linear regression analysis supported this assumption: in a fictional test situation, exposure reduction improved the acceptance of base stations, operationalized as the requested distance of the base station from one's own home. Furthermore, subjects with high RF EMF risk perception were most sensitive to exposure reduction. On average, a 70% exposure reduction reduced the requested distance from about 2000 meters to 1000 meters. The consequences for risk communication are discussed. PMID:26229540

Managing pregnancy of unknown location based on initial serum progesterone and serial serum hCG levels: development and validation of a two-step triage protocol.

PubMed

Van Calster, B; Bobdiwala, S; Guha, S; Van Hoorde, K; Al-Memar, M; Harvey, R; Farren, J; Kirk, E; Condous, G; Sur, S; Stalder, C; Timmerman, D; Bourne, T

2016-11-01

A uniform rationalized management protocol for pregnancies of unknown location (PUL) is lacking. We developed a two-step triage protocol to select PUL at high risk of ectopic pregnancy (EP), based on serum progesterone level at presentation (step 1) and the serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) ratio, defined as the ratio of hCG at 48 h to hCG at presentation (step 2). This was a cohort study of 2753 PUL (301 EP), involving a secondary analysis of prospectively and consecutively collected PUL data from two London-based university teaching hospitals. Using a chronological split we used 1449 PUL for development and 1304 for validation. We aimed to assign PUL as low risk with high confidence (high negative predictive value (NPV)) while classifying most EP as high risk (high sensitivity). The first triage step assigned PUL as low risk using a threshold of serum progesterone at presentation. The remaining PUL were triaged using a novel logistic regression risk model based on hCG ratio and initial serum progesterone (second step), defining low risk as an estimated EP risk of < 5%. On validation, initial serum progesterone ≤ 2 nmol/L (step 1) classified 16.1% PUL as low risk. Second-step classification with the risk model selected an additional 46.0% of all PUL as low risk. Overall, the two-step protocol classified 62.1% of PUL as low risk, with an NPV of 98.6% and a sensitivity of 92.0%. When the risk model was used in isolation (i.e. without the first step), 60.5% of PUL were classified as low risk with 99.1% NPV and 94.9% sensitivity. PUL can be classified efficiently into being either high or low risk for complications using a two-step protocol involving initial progesterone and hCG levels and the hCG ratio. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Framing effects and risk-sensitive decision making.

PubMed

Mishra, Sandeep; Gregson, Margaux; Lalumière, Martin L

2012-02-01

Prospect theory suggests that people are risk-averse when facing gains, but risk-prone when facing losses, a pattern known as the framing effect. Although framing effects have been widely demonstrated, few studies have investigated framing effects under conditions of need. Risk-sensitivity theory predicts that decision makers should prefer high-risk options in situations of high need, when lower risk options are unlikely to meet those needs. In two experiments, we examined (1) whether framing effects occurred in behavioural tasks involving risky decision making from description and decision making from experience, (2) whether participants' risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory, and (3) whether decision framing interacted with conditions of need to influence decision making under risk. The results suggest that under all circumstances, risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory. Framing effects were at least partially demonstrable under all experimental conditions. Finally, negative frames interacted with situations of high need to produce particularly elevated levels of risky choice. Together, the results suggest that risk-sensitivity theory can augment prospect theory to explain choice under conditions of need. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Smoking paradox in the development of psoriatic arthritis among patients with psoriasis: a population-based study.

PubMed

Nguyen, Uyen-Sa D T; Zhang, Yuqing; Lu, Na; Louie-Gao, Qiong; Niu, Jingbo; Ogdie, Alexis; Gelfand, Joel M; LaValley, Michael P; Dubreuil, Maureen; Sparks, Jeffrey A; Karlson, Elizabeth W; Choi, Hyon K

2018-01-01

Smoking is associated with an increased risk of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in the general population, but not among patients with psoriasis. We sought to clarify the possible methodological mechanisms behind this paradox. Using 1995-2015 data from The Health Improvement Network, we performed survival analysis to examine the association between smoking and incident PsA in the general population and among patients with psoriasis. We clarified the paradox using mediation analysis and conducted bias sensitivity analyses to evaluate the potential impact of index event bias and quantify its magnitude from uncontrolled/unmeasured confounders. Of 6.65 million subjects without PsA at baseline, 225 213 participants had psoriasis and 7057 developed incident PsA. Smoking was associated with an increased risk of PsA in the general population (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.19 to 1.36), but with a decreased risk among patients with psoriasis (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.84 to 0.99). Mediation analysis showed that the effect of smoking on the risk of PsA was mediated almost entirely through its effect on psoriasis. Bias-sensitivity analyses indicated that even when the relation of uncontrolled confounders to either smoking or PsA was modest (both HRs=~1.5), it could reverse the biased effect of smoking among patients with psoriasis (HR=0.9). In this large cohort representative of the UK general population, smoking was positively associated with PsA risk in the general population, but negatively associated among patients with psoriasis. Conditioning on a causal intermediate variable (psoriasis) may even reverse the association between smoking and PsA, potentially explaining the smoking paradox for the risk of PsA among patients with psoriasis. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Collision sensitive niche profile of the worst affected bird-groups at wind turbine structures in the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany.

PubMed

Bose, Anushika; Dürr, Tobias; Klenke, Reinhard A; Henle, Klaus

2018-02-28

Biodiversity-related impacts at wind energy facilities have increasingly become a cause of conservation concern, central issue being the collision of birds. Utilizing spatial information of their carcass detections at wind turbines (WTs), we quantified the detections in relation to the metric distances of the respective turbines to different land-use types. We used ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) to identify combinations of land-use distances with respect to the spatial allocation of WTs that led to higher proportions of collisions among the worst affected bird-groups: Buntings, Crows, Larks, Pigeons and Raptors. We also assessed their respective similarities to the collision phenomenon by checking for overlaps amongst their distance combinations. Crows and Larks showed the narrowest "collision sensitive niche"; a part of ecological niche under higher risk of collisions with turbines, followed by that of Buntings and Pigeons. Raptors had the broadest niche showing significant overlaps with the collision sensitive niches of the other groups. This can probably be attributed to their larger home range combined with their hunting affinities to open landscapes. Identification of collision sensitive niches could be a powerful tool for landscape planning; helping avoid regions with higher risks of collisions for turbine allocations and thus protecting sensitive bird populations.

Cluster analysis of cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors in women of reproductive age.

PubMed

Tzeng, Chii-Ruey; Chang, Yuan-chin Ivan; Chang, Yu-chia; Wang, Chia-Woei; Chen, Chi-Huang; Hsu, Ming-I

2014-05-01

To study the association between endocrine disturbances and metabolic complications in women seeking gynecologic care. Retrospective study, cluster analysis. Outpatient clinic, university medical center. 573 women, including 384 at low risk and 189 at high risk of cardiometabolic disease. None. Cardiovascular and metabolic parameters and clinical and biochemical characteristics. Risk factors for metabolic disease are associated with a low age of menarche, high levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and liver enzymes, and low levels of sex hormone-binding globulin. Overweight/obese status, polycystic ovary syndrome, oligo/amenorrhea, and hyperandrogenism were found to increase the risk of cardiometabolic disease. However, hyperprolactinemia and premature ovarian failure were not associated with the risk of cardiometabolic disease. In terms of androgens, the serum total testosterone level and free androgen index but not androstenedione or dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) were associated with cardiometabolic risk. Although polycystic ovary syndrome is associated with metabolic risk, obesity was the major determinant of cardiometabolic disturbances in reproductive-aged women. Hyperprolactinemia and premature ovarian failure were not associated with the risk of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. NCT01826357. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tissue Doppler Imaging Combined with Advanced 12-Lead ECG Analysis Might Improve Early Diagnosis of Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy in Childhood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Femlund, E.; Schlegel, T.; Liuba, P.

2011-01-01

Optimization of early diagnosis of childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is essential in lowering the risk of HCM complications. Standard echocardiography (ECHO) has shown to be less sensitive in this regard. In this study, we sought to assess whether spatial QRS-T angle deviation, which has shown to predict HCM in adults with high sensitivity, and myocardial Tissue Doppler Imaging (TDI) could be additional tools in early diagnosis of HCM in childhood. Methods: Children and adolescents with familial HCM (n=10, median age 16, range 5-27 years), and without obvious hypertrophy but with heredity for HCM (n=12, median age 16, range 4-25 years, HCM or sudden death with autopsy-verified HCM in greater than or equal to 1 first-degree relative, HCM-risk) were additionally investigated with TDI and advanced 12-lead ECG analysis using Cardiax(Registered trademark) (IMED Co Ltd, Budapest, Hungary and Houston). Spatial QRS-T angle (SA) was derived from Kors regression-related transformation. Healthy age-matched controls (n=21) were also studied. All participants underwent thorough clinical examination. Results: Spatial QRS-T angle (Figure/ Panel A) and septal E/Ea ratio (Figure/Panel B) were most increased in HCM group as compared to the HCM-risk and control groups (p less than 0.05). Of note, these 2 variables showed a trend toward higher levels in HCM-risk group than in control group (p=0.05 for E/Ea and 0.06 for QRS/T by ANOVA). In a logistic regression model, increased SA and septal E/Ea ratio appeared to significantly predict both the disease (Chi-square in HCM group: 9 and 5, respectively, p less than 0.05 for both) and the risk for HCM (Chi-square in HCM-risk group: 5 and 4 respectively, p less than 0.05 for both), with further increased predictability level when these 2 variables were combined (Chi-square 10 in HCM group, and 7 in HCM-risk group, p less than 0.01 for both). Conclusions: In this small material, Tissue Doppler Imaging and spatial mean QRS-T angle deviation, particularly when combined, appear to be sensitive in predicting the risk for developing childhood HCM. Large-scale, prospective studies are needed to confirm this hypothesis.

Shift work, night work, and the risk of prostate cancer: A meta-analysis based on 9 cohort studies.

PubMed

Du, Hong-Bing; Bin, Kai-Yun; Liu, Wen-Hong; Yang, Feng-Sheng

2017-11-01

Epidemiology studies suggested that shift work or night work may be linked to prostate cancer (PCa); the relationship, however, remains controversy. PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Embase (Ovid) databases were searched before (started from the building of the databases) February 4, 2017 for eligible cohort studies. We pooled the evidence included by a random- or fixed-effect model, according to the heterogeneity. A predefined subgroup analysis was conducted to see the potential discrepancy between groups. Sensitivity analysis was used to test whether our results were stale. Nine cohort studies were eligible for meta-analysis with 2,570,790 male subjects. Our meta-analysis showed that, under the fixed-effect model, the pooled relevant risk (RR) of PCa was 1.05 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00, 1.11; P = .06; I = 24.00%) for men who had ever engaged in night shift work; and under the random-effect model, the pooled RR was 1.08 (0.99, 1.17; P = .08; I = 24.00%). Subgroup analysis showed the RR of PCa among males in western countries was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.11; P = .09; I = 0.00%), while among Asian countries it was 2.45 (95% CI: 1.19, 5.04; P = .02; I = 0.00%); and the RR was 1.04 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.14; P = .40; I = 29.20%) for the high-quality group compared with 1.21 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.41; P = .02; I = 0.00%) for the moderate/low-quality group. Sensitivity analysis showed robust results. Based on the current evidence of cohort studies, we found no obvious association between night shift work and PCa. However, our subgroup analysis suggests that night shift work may increase the risk of PCa in Asian men. Some evidence of a small study effect was observed in this meta-analysis.

The estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction in recent light-duty vehicles on U.S. societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled.

PubMed

Wenzel, Tom

2013-10-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently updated its 2003 and 2010 logistic regression analyses of the effect of a reduction in light-duty vehicle mass on US societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane, 2012). Societal fatality risk includes the risk to both the occupants of the case vehicle as well as any crash partner or pedestrians. The current analysis is the most thorough investigation of this issue to date. This paper replicates the Kahane analysis and extends it by testing the sensitivity of his results to changes in the definition of risk, and the data and control variables used in the regression models. An assessment by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) indicates that the estimated effect of mass reduction on risk is smaller than in Kahane's previous studies, and is statistically non-significant for all but the lightest cars (Wenzel, 2012a). The estimated effects of a reduction in mass or footprint (i.e. wheelbase times track width) are small relative to other vehicle, driver, and crash variables used in the regression models. The recent historical correlation between mass and footprint is not so large to prohibit including both variables in the same regression model; excluding footprint from the model, i.e. allowing footprint to decrease with mass, increases the estimated detrimental effect of mass reduction on risk in cars and crossover utility vehicles (CUVs)/minivans, but has virtually no effect on light trucks. Analysis by footprint deciles indicates that risk does not consistently increase with reduced mass for vehicles of similar footprint. Finally, the estimated effects of mass and footprint reduction are sensitive to the measure of exposure used (fatalities per induced exposure crash, rather than per VMT), as well as other changes in the data or control variables used. It appears that the safety penalty from lower mass can be mitigated with careful vehicle design, and that manufacturers can reduce mass as a strategy to increase their vehicles' fuel economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions without necessarily compromising societal safety. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Migraine Headache and Ischemic Stroke Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Spector, June T.; Kahn, Susan R.; Jones, Miranda R.; Jayakumar, Monisha; Dalal, Deepan; Nazarian, Saman

2010-01-01

Background Observational studies, including recent large cohort studies which were unavailable for prior meta-analysis, have suggested an association between migraine headache and ischemic stroke. We performed an updated meta-analysis to quantitatively summarize the strength of association between migraine and ischemic stroke risk. Methods We systematically searched electronic databases, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, through February 2009 for studies of human subjects in the English language. Study selection using a priori selection criteria, data extraction, and assessment of study quality were conducted independently by reviewer pairs using standardized forms. Results Twenty-one (60%) of 35 studies met the selection criteria, for a total of 622,381 participants (13 case-control, 8 cohort studies) included in the meta-analysis. The pooled adjusted odds ratio of ischemic stroke comparing migraineurs to non-migraineurs using a random effects model was 2.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.91-2.76). The pooled adjusted effect estimates for studies that reported relative risks and hazard ratios, respectively, were 2.41 (95% CI, 1.81-3.20) and 1.52 (95% CI, 0.99-2.35). The overall pooled effect estimate was 2.04 (95% CI, 1.72-2.43). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding lower quality studies. Conclusions Migraine is associated with increased ischemic stroke risk. These findings underscore the importance of identifying high-risk migraineurs with other modifiable stroke risk factors. Future studies of the effect of migraine treatment and modifiable risk factor reduction on stroke risk in migraineurs are warranted. PMID:20493462

A cost-effectiveness analysis of combination antiplatelet therapy for high-risk acute coronary syndromes: clopidogrel plus aspirin versus aspirin alone.

PubMed

Schleinitz, Mark D; Heidenreich, Paul A

2005-02-15

Although clopidogrel plus aspirin is more effective than aspirin alone in preventing subsequent vascular events in patients with unstable angina, the cost-effectiveness of this combination has yet to be examined in this high-risk population. To determine the cost-effectiveness of clopidogrel plus aspirin compared with aspirin alone. Cost-utility analysis. Published literature. Patients with unstable angina and electrocardiographic changes or non-Q-wave myocardial infarction. time horizon: Lifetime. Societal. Combination therapy with clopidogrel, 75 mg/d, plus aspirin, 325 mg/d, for 1 year, followed by aspirin monotherapy, was compared with lifelong aspirin therapy, 325 mg/d. Lifetime costs, life expectancy in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Patients treated with aspirin alone lived 9.51 QALYs after their initial event and incurred expenses of 127,700 dollars; the addition of clopidogrel increased life expectancy to 9.61 QALYs and costs to 129,300 dollars. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for clopidogrel plus aspirin compared with aspirin alone was 15,400 dollars per QALY. The analysis of 1 year of therapy was robust to all sensitivity analyses. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, fewer than 3% of simulations resulted in cost-effectiveness ratios over 50,000 dollars per QALY. The cost-effectiveness of longer combination therapy depends critically on the balance of thrombotic event rates, durable efficacy, and the increased bleeding rate in patients taking clopidogrel. This analysis may not apply to patients with severe heart failure, those undergoing long-term anticoagulant therapy, those recently managed with revascularization, or those undergoing short-term treatment with glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors. In patients with high-risk acute coronary syndromes, 1 year of therapy with clopidogrel plus aspirin results in greater life expectancy than aspirin alone, at a cost within the traditional limits of cost-effectiveness. The durable efficacy of clopidogrel relative to the risk for hemorrhage should be further explored before more protracted therapy can be recommended.

[Impact of Socioeconomic Risk Exposure on Maternal Sensitivity, Stress and Family Functionality].

PubMed

Sidor, Anna; Köhler, Hubert; Cierpka, Manfred

2018-03-01

Impact of Socioeconomic Risk Exposure on Maternal Sensitivity, Stress and Family Functionality Parental stress exposure can influence the parent-child relationship, child development and child wellbeing in negative ways. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of socio-economic risk exposure on the quality of the mother-child-interaction and family functionality. A sample of 294 mother-infant dyads at psychosocial risk was compared with a lower-risk, middle-class sample of 125 mother-infant-dyads in regard to maternal sensitivity/child's cooperation (CARE-Index), maternal stress (PSI-SF) and family functionality (FB-K). Lower levels of maternal sensitivity/child's cooperation and by trend also of the family functionality were found among the mothers from the at-risk sample in comparison to the low-risk sample. The level of maternal stress was similar in both samples. The results underpin the negative effects of a socio-economic risk exposure on the mother-child relationship. An early, sensitivity-focused family support could be encouraged to counteract the negative effects of early socioeconomic stress.

Deterrence and Risk Preferences in Sequential Attacker-Defender Games with Continuous Efforts.

PubMed

Payyappalli, Vineet M; Zhuang, Jun; Jose, Victor Richmond R

2017-11-01

Most attacker-defender games consider players as risk neutral, whereas in reality attackers and defenders may be risk seeking or risk averse. This article studies the impact of players' risk preferences on their equilibrium behavior and its effect on the notion of deterrence. In particular, we study the effects of risk preferences in a single-period, sequential game where a defender has a continuous range of investment levels that could be strategically chosen to potentially deter an attack. This article presents analytic results related to the effect of attacker and defender risk preferences on the optimal defense effort level and their impact on the deterrence level. Numerical illustrations and some discussion of the effect of risk preferences on deterrence and the utility of using such a model are provided, as well as sensitivity analysis of continuous attack investment levels and uncertainty in the defender's beliefs about the attacker's risk preference. A key contribution of this article is the identification of specific scenarios in which the defender using a model that takes into account risk preferences would be better off than a defender using a traditional risk-neutral model. This study provides insights that could be used by policy analysts and decisionmakers involved in investment decisions in security and safety. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk-taking propensity and sensitivity to punishment in adolescents with attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder symptoms and/or reading disability.

PubMed

Poon, Kean; Ho, Connie Suk-Han

2016-01-01

Many studies reported that adolescents with ADHD/RD more frequently engage in risk-taking behaviors. Very few have examined their risk taking patterns and the impact of their comorbidity. The present study compared the risk-taking propensity, sensitivity to punishment and delinquency outcome in Chinese adolescents with ADHD symptoms (AS) and/or RD using a simulated risk task, the Balloon Analogous Risk Task (BART). Adolescents with AS (n=37), RD (n=35), AS+RD (n=35), and control (n=36) were recruited from local secondary schools. Results showed that adolescents with ADHD, despite their great risk-taking propensity, were sensitive to immediate punishment whereas adolescents with RD were found to display normal risk-taking propensity, yet showed a tendency of being less sensitive to punishment. The comorbidity ADHD+RD group had the highest delinquency score, and exhibited greatest risk taking and least sensitivity to punishment, which provided further support that comorbid condition might have stronger impact on risk taking or even delinquency than the pure groups. The present findings provides a useful picture of the risk taking pattern associated with different groups, allowing for effective matching for future prevention and intervention program. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of the Performance of International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) Methods in the Diagnosis of Early Stage Ovarian Cancer in a Non-Screening Population.

PubMed

Froyman, Wouter; Wynants, Laure; Landolfo, Chiara; Bourne, Tom; Valentin, Lil; Testa, Antonia; Sladkevicius, Povilas; Franchi, Dorella; Fischerova, Daniela; Savelli, Luca; Van Calster, Ben; Timmerman, Dirk

2017-06-02

The aim of this study was to assess and compare the performance of different ultrasound-based International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) strategies and subjective assessment for the diagnosis of early stage ovarian malignancy. This is a secondary analysis of a prospective multicenter cross-sectional diagnostic accuracy study that included 1653 patients recruited at 18 centers from 2009 to 2012. All patients underwent standardized transvaginal ultrasonography by experienced ultrasound investigators. We assessed test performance of the IOTA Simple Rules (SRs), Simple Rules Risk (SRR), the Assessment of Different NEoplasias in the adneXa (ADNEX) model and subjective assessment to discriminate between stage I-II ovarian cancer and benign disease. Reference standard was histology after surgery. 230 (13.9%) patients proved to have stage I-II primary invasive ovarian malignancy, and 1423 (86.1%) had benign disease. Sensitivity and specificity with respect to malignancy (95% confidence intervals) of the original SRs (classifying all inconclusive cases as malignant) were 94.3% (90.6% to 96.7%) and 73.4% (71.0% to 75.6%). Subjective assessment had a sensitivity and specificity of 90.0% (85.4% to 93.2%) and 86.7% (84.9% to 88.4%), respectively. The areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves of SRR and ADNEX were 0.917 (0.902 to 0.933) and 0.905 (0.920 to 0.934), respectively. At a 1% risk cut-off, sensitivity and specificity for SRR were 100% (98.4% to 100%) and 38.0% (35.5% to 40.6%), and for ADNEX were 100% (98.4% to 100%) and 19.4% (17.4% to 21.5%). At a 30% risk cut-off, sensitivity and specificity for SRR were 88.3% (83.5% to 91.8%) and 81.1% (79% to 83%), and for ADNEX were 84.5% (80.5% to 89.6%) and 84.5% (82.6% to 86.3%). This study shows that all three IOTA strategies have good ability to discriminate between stage I-II ovarian malignancy and benign disease.

Mid-L/D Lifting Body Entry Demise Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ling, Lisa

2017-01-01

The mid-lift-to-drag ratio (mid-L/D) lifting body is a fully autonomous spacecraft under design at NASA for enabling a rapid return of scientific payloads from the International Space Station (ISS). For contingency planning and risk assessment for the Earth-return trajectory, an entry demise analysis was performed to examine three potential failure scenarios: (1) nominal entry interface conditions with loss of control, (2) controlled entry at maximum flight path angle, and (3) controlled entry at minimum flight path angle. The objectives of the analysis were to predict the spacecraft breakup sequence and timeline, determine debris survival, and calculate the debris dispersion footprint. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to determine the effect of the initial pitch rate on the spacecraft stability and breakup during the entry. This report describes the mid-L/D lifting body and presents the results of the entry demise and sensitivity analyses.

[Mites in mattress dust and relevant environmental factors in student dormitories in Shenzhen].

PubMed

Wang, Bin; Wu, Jie; Liu, Zhi-gang; Ran, Pi-xin; Gao, Qiao; Luo, Chun-hui; Ai, Mei

2009-02-28

Three hundred and eight mattress dust samples were collected from college dormitories in Shenzhen with a mite prevalence of 88% (271/308). From the samples, 6163 mites were isolated and identified. Dermatophagoides farinae, D. pteronyssinus and Blomia tropicalis were three most abundant species, occupying 29.7%, 21.7% and 17.9%, respectively. It was found that sex of the students, mattress cover (bamboo mat or bed sheet), with or without air conditioner installation, and daily using of air conditioner (<2 h, 2-8 h and >8 h) had no significant influence on the mite prevalence (P>0.05). However, logistic regression analysis revealed that the risk of mite sensitization in male student dormitory was significantly lower than that in female dormitory (OR=0.55, P=0.038), and the risk of using bed sheets was significantly higher than using bamboo mats (OR=2.13, P=0.040). Both mite prevalence and the risk of mite sensitization significantly decreased with higher floor of the dormitory building.

First Trimester Maternal Serum PP13 in the Risk Assessment for Preeclampsia

PubMed Central

ROMERO, Roberto; KUSANOVIC, Juan Pedro; THAN, Nandor Gabor; EREZ, Offer; GOTSCH, Francesca; ESPINOZA, Jimmy; EDWIN, Samuel; CHEFETZ, Ilana; GOMEZ, Ricardo; NIEN, Jyh Kae; SAMMAR, Marei; PINELES, Beth; HASSAN, Sonia S.; MEIRI, Hamutal; TAL, Yossi; KUHNREICH, Ido; PAPP, Zoltan; CUCKLE, Howard S.

2008-01-01

Objective To determine whether first trimester maternal serum Placental Protein 13 (PP13) concentrations can be used in the risk assessment for preeclampsia. Study Design This case-control study included 50 patients with preeclampsia and 250 patients with normal pregnancies. Samples were collected between 8-13 weeks of gestation. Serum PP13 concentrations were measured by ELISA and expressed as medians and multiples of the median (MoM) for gestational age. Sensitivity and specificity were derived from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results 1) Serum PP13 concentration in the first trimester was significantly lower in patients who developed preterm and early-onset preeclampsia than in those with normal pregnancies; and 2) At 80% specificity, a cutoff of 0.39 MoM had a sensitivity of 100% for early-onset preeclampsia and 85% for preterm preeclampsia. Conclusion Maternal serum first trimester PP13 appears to be a reasonable marker for risk assessment, but a weak marker for severe preeclampsia at term, and ineffective for identifying mild preeclampsia at term. PMID:18539259

Branched-chain amino acids for people with hepatic encephalopathy.

PubMed

Gluud, Lise Lotte; Dam, Gitte; Les, Iñigo; Córdoba, Juan; Marchesini, Giulio; Borre, Mette; Aagaard, Niels Kristian; Vilstrup, Hendrik

2015-02-25

Hepatic encephalopathy is a brain dysfunction with neurological and psychiatric changes associated with liver insufficiency or portal-systemic shunting. The severity ranges from minor symptoms to coma. A Cochrane systematic review including 11 randomised clinical trials on branched-chain amino acids (BCAA) versus control interventions has evaluated if BCAA may benefit people with hepatic encephalopathy. To evaluate the beneficial and harmful effects of BCAA versus any control intervention for people with hepatic encephalopathy. We identified trials through manual and electronic searches in The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Science Citation Index on 2 October 2014. We included randomised clinical trials, irrespective of the bias control, language, or publication status. The authors independently extracted data based on published reports and collected data from the primary investigators. We changed our primary outcomes in this update of the review to include mortality (all cause), hepatic encephalopathy (number of people without improved manifestations of hepatic encephalopathy), and adverse events. The analyses included random-effects and fixed-effect meta-analyses. We performed subgroup, sensitivity, regression, and trial sequential analyses to evaluate sources of heterogeneity (including intervention, and participant and trial characteristics), bias (using The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group method), small-study effects, and the robustness of the results after adjusting for sparse data and multiplicity. We graded the quality of the evidence using the GRADE approach. We found 16 randomised clinical trials including 827 participants with hepatic encephalopathy classed as overt (12 trials) or minimal (four trials). Eight trials assessed oral BCAA supplements and seven trials assessed intravenous BCAA. The control groups received placebo/no intervention (two trials), diets (10 trials), lactulose (two trials), or neomycin (two trials). In 15 trials, all participants had cirrhosis. Based on the combined Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group score, we classed seven trials as low risk of bias and nine trials as high risk of bias (mainly due to lack of blinding or for-profit funding). In a random-effects meta-analysis of mortality, we found no difference between BCAA and controls (risk ratio (RR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69 to 1.11; 760 participants; 15 trials; moderate quality of evidence). We found no evidence of small-study effects. Sensitivity analyses of trials with a low risk of bias found no beneficial or detrimental effect of BCAA on mortality. Trial sequential analysis showed that the required information size was not reached, suggesting that additional evidence was needed. BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.88; 827 participants; 16 trials; high quality of evidence). We found no small-study effects and confirmed the beneficial effect of BCAA in a sensitivity analysis that only included trials with a low risk of bias (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.96). The trial sequential analysis showed that firm evidence was reached. In a fixed-effect meta-analysis, we found that BCAA increased the risk of nausea and vomiting (RR 5.56; 2.93 to 10.55; moderate quality of evidence). We found no beneficial or detrimental effects of BCAA on nausea or vomiting in a random-effects meta-analysis or on quality of life or nutritional parameters. We did not identify predictors of the intervention effect in the subgroup, sensitivity, or meta-regression analyses. In sensitivity analyses that excluded trials with a lactulose or neomycin control, BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.92). Additional sensitivity analyses found no difference between BCAA and lactulose or neomycin (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.34 to 1.30). In this updated review, we included five additional trials. The analyses showed that BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy. We found no effect on mortality, quality of life, or nutritional parameters, but we need additional trials to evaluate these outcomes. Likewise, we need additional randomised clinical trials to determine the effect of BCAA compared with interventions such as non-absorbable disaccharides, rifaximin, or other antibiotics.

Branched-chain amino acids for people with hepatic encephalopathy.

PubMed

Gluud, Lise Lotte; Dam, Gitte; Les, Iñigo; Marchesini, Giulio; Borre, Mette; Aagaard, Niels Kristian; Vilstrup, Hendrik

2017-05-18

Hepatic encephalopathy is a brain dysfunction with neurological and psychiatric changes associated with liver insufficiency or portal-systemic shunting. The severity ranges from minor symptoms to coma. A Cochrane systematic review including 11 randomised clinical trials on branched-chain amino acids (BCAA) versus control interventions has evaluated if BCAA may benefit people with hepatic encephalopathy. To evaluate the beneficial and harmful effects of BCAA versus any control intervention for people with hepatic encephalopathy. We identified trials through manual and electronic searches in The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded and Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science, and LILACS (May 2017). We included randomised clinical trials, irrespective of the bias control, language, or publication status. The authors independently extracted data based on published reports and collected data from the primary investigators. We changed our primary outcomes in this update of the review to include mortality (all cause), hepatic encephalopathy (number of people without improved manifestations of hepatic encephalopathy), and adverse events. The analyses included random-effects and fixed-effect meta-analyses. We performed subgroup, sensitivity, regression, and trial sequential analyses to evaluate sources of heterogeneity (including intervention, and participant and trial characteristics), bias (using The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group method), small-study effects, and the robustness of the results after adjusting for sparse data and multiplicity. We graded the quality of the evidence using the GRADE approach. We found 16 randomised clinical trials including 827 participants with hepatic encephalopathy classed as overt (12 trials) or minimal (four trials). Eight trials assessed oral BCAA supplements and seven trials assessed intravenous BCAA. The control groups received placebo/no intervention (two trials), diets (10 trials), lactulose (two trials), or neomycin (two trials). In 15 trials, all participants had cirrhosis. We classed seven trials as low risk of bias and nine trials as high risk of bias (mainly due to lack of blinding or for-profit funding). In a random-effects meta-analysis of mortality, we found no difference between BCAA and controls (risk ratio (RR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69 to 1.11; 760 participants; 15 trials; moderate quality of evidence). We found no evidence of small-study effects. Sensitivity analyses of trials with a low risk of bias found no beneficial or detrimental effect of BCAA on mortality. Trial sequential analysis showed that the required information size was not reached, suggesting that additional evidence was needed. BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.88; 827 participants; 16 trials; high quality of evidence). We found no small-study effects and confirmed the beneficial effect of BCAA in a sensitivity analysis that only included trials with a low risk of bias (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.96). The trial sequential analysis showed that firm evidence was reached. In a fixed-effect meta-analysis, we found that BCAA increased the risk of nausea and vomiting (RR 5.56; 2.93 to 10.55; moderate quality of evidence). We found no beneficial or detrimental effects of BCAA on nausea or vomiting in a random-effects meta-analysis or on quality of life or nutritional parameters. We did not identify predictors of the intervention effect in the subgroup, sensitivity, or meta-regression analyses. In sensitivity analyses that excluded trials with a lactulose or neomycin control, BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.92). Additional sensitivity analyses found no difference between BCAA and lactulose or neomycin (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.34 to 1.30). In this updated review, we included five additional trials. The analyses showed that BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy. We found no effect on mortality, quality of life, or nutritional parameters, but we need additional trials to evaluate these outcomes. Likewise, we need additional randomised clinical trials to determine the effect of BCAA compared with interventions such as non-absorbable disaccharides, rifaximin, or other antibiotics.

Branched-chain amino acids for people with hepatic encephalopathy.

PubMed

Gluud, Lise Lotte; Dam, Gitte; Les, Iñigo; Córdoba, Juan; Marchesini, Giulio; Borre, Mette; Aagaard, Niels Kristian; Vilstrup, Hendrik

2015-09-17

Hepatic encephalopathy is a brain dysfunction with neurological and psychiatric changes associated with liver insufficiency or portal-systemic shunting. The severity ranges from minor symptoms to coma. A Cochrane systematic review including 11 randomised clinical trials on branched-chain amino acids (BCAA) versus control interventions has evaluated if BCAA may benefit people with hepatic encephalopathy. To evaluate the beneficial and harmful effects of BCAA versus any control intervention for people with hepatic encephalopathy. We identified trials through manual and electronic searches in The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Science Citation Index (August 2015). We included randomised clinical trials, irrespective of the bias control, language, or publication status. The authors independently extracted data based on published reports and collected data from the primary investigators. We changed our primary outcomes in this update of the review to include mortality (all cause), hepatic encephalopathy (number of people without improved manifestations of hepatic encephalopathy), and adverse events. The analyses included random-effects and fixed-effect meta-analyses. We performed subgroup, sensitivity, regression, and trial sequential analyses to evaluate sources of heterogeneity (including intervention, and participant and trial characteristics), bias (using The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group method), small-study effects, and the robustness of the results after adjusting for sparse data and multiplicity. We graded the quality of the evidence using the GRADE approach. We found 16 randomised clinical trials including 827 participants with hepatic encephalopathy classed as overt (12 trials) or minimal (four trials). Eight trials assessed oral BCAA supplements and seven trials assessed intravenous BCAA. The control groups received placebo/no intervention (two trials), diets (10 trials), lactulose (two trials), or neomycin (two trials). In 15 trials, all participants had cirrhosis. We classed seven trials as low risk of bias and nine trials as high risk of bias (mainly due to lack of blinding or for-profit funding). In a random-effects meta-analysis of mortality, we found no difference between BCAA and controls (risk ratio (RR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69 to 1.11; 760 participants; 15 trials; moderate quality of evidence). We found no evidence of small-study effects. Sensitivity analyses of trials with a low risk of bias found no beneficial or detrimental effect of BCAA on mortality. Trial sequential analysis showed that the required information size was not reached, suggesting that additional evidence was needed. BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.88; 827 participants; 16 trials; high quality of evidence). We found no small-study effects and confirmed the beneficial effect of BCAA in a sensitivity analysis that only included trials with a low risk of bias (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.96). The trial sequential analysis showed that firm evidence was reached. In a fixed-effect meta-analysis, we found that BCAA increased the risk of nausea and vomiting (RR 5.56; 2.93 to 10.55; moderate quality of evidence). We found no beneficial or detrimental effects of BCAA on nausea or vomiting in a random-effects meta-analysis or on quality of life or nutritional parameters. We did not identify predictors of the intervention effect in the subgroup, sensitivity, or meta-regression analyses. In sensitivity analyses that excluded trials with a lactulose or neomycin control, BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.92). Additional sensitivity analyses found no difference between BCAA and lactulose or neomycin (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.34 to 1.30). In this updated review, we included five additional trials. The analyses showed that BCAA had a beneficial effect on hepatic encephalopathy. We found no effect on mortality, quality of life, or nutritional parameters, but we need additional trials to evaluate these outcomes. Likewise, we need additional randomised clinical trials to determine the effect of BCAA compared with interventions such as non-absorbable disaccharides, rifaximin, or other antibiotics.

Early life rhinovirus wheezing, allergic sensitization, and asthma risk at adolescence.

PubMed

Rubner, Frederick J; Jackson, Daniel J; Evans, Michael D; Gangnon, Ronald E; Tisler, Christopher J; Pappas, Tressa E; Gern, James E; Lemanske, Robert F

2017-02-01

Early life rhinovirus (RV) wheezing illnesses and aeroallergen sensitization increase the risk of asthma at school age. Whether these remain risk factors for the persistence of asthma out to adolescence is not established. We sought to define the relationships among specific viral illnesses and the type and timing of aeroallergen sensitization with the persistence of asthma into adolescence. A total of 217 children were followed prospectively from birth to age 13 years. The etiology and timing of viral wheezing illnesses during the first 3 years of life were assessed along with patterns of allergen sensitization. The associations between viral wheezing illnesses, presence and pattern of aeroallergen sensitization, and asthma diagnosis at age 13 years were evaluated. When adjusted for all viral etiologies, wheezing with RV (odds ratio = 3.3; 95% CI, 1.5-7.1), but not respiratory syncytial virus (odds ratio = 1.0; 95% CI, 0.4-2.3), was associated with asthma at age 13 years. Age of aeroallergen sensitization also influenced asthma risk; 65% of children sensitized by age 1 year had asthma at age 13 years, compared with 40% of children not sensitized at age 1 year but sensitized by age 5 years, and 17% of children not sensitized at age 5 years. Early life aeroallergen sensitization and RV wheezing had additive effects on asthma risk at adolescence. In a high-risk birth cohort, the persistence of asthma at age 13 years was most strongly associated with outpatient wheezing illnesses with RV and aeroallergen sensitization in early life. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vitrectomy for vitreous floaters: analysis of the benefits and risks.

PubMed

Sommerville, Drew N

2015-05-01

To review the pros and cons of small-gauge vitrectomy for symptomatic floaters. Current treatment options for floaters include Nd:YAG vitreolysis and pars plana vitrectomy. There are risks and benefits associated with vitrectomy for floaters. However, small-gauge vitrectomy is a minimally invasive way of removing the floaters. The current literature demonstrates vitrectomy has some risk, but is highly effective at improving vision, symptoms, contrast sensitivity, and quality of life. Small-gauge vitrectomy for floaters is a well tolerated and effective procedure to remove the symptomatic floaters. Symptomatic patients are willing to take some risk to have their troublesome vitreous floaters removed, often resulting in an improvement in their vision and quality of life.

A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Hage, Richard T.

1991-01-01

A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Hage, Richard T.

A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

Critical thinking about adverse drug effects: lessons from the psychology of risk and medical decision-making for clinical psychopharmacology.

PubMed

Nierenberg, Andrew A; Smoller, Jordan W; Eidelman, Polina; Wu, Yelena P; Tilley, Claire A

2008-01-01

Systematic biases in decision-making have been well characterized in medical and nonmedical fields but mostly ignored in clinical psychopharmacology. The purpose of this paper is to sensitize clinicians who prescribe psychiatric drugs to the issues of the psychology of risk, especially as they pertain to the risk of side effects. Specifically, the present analysis focuses on heuristic organization and framing effects that create cognitive biases in medical practice. Our purpose is to increase the awareness of how pharmaceutical companies may influence physicians by framing the risk of medication side effects to favor their products. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The management of patients with T1 adenocarcinoma of the low rectum: a decision analysis.

PubMed

Johnston, Calvin F; Tomlinson, George; Temple, Larissa K; Baxter, Nancy N

2013-04-01

Decision making for patients with T1 adenocarcinoma of the low rectum, when treatment options are limited to a transanal local excision or abdominoperineal resection, is challenging. The aim of this study was to develop a contemporary decision analysis to assist patients and clinicians in balancing the goals of maximizing life expectancy and quality of life in this situation. We constructed a Markov-type microsimulation in open-source software. Recurrence rates and quality-of-life parameters were elicited by systematic literature reviews. Sensitivity analyses were performed on key model parameters. Our base case for analysis was a 65-year-old man with low-lying T1N0 rectal cancer. We determined the sensitivity of our model for sex, age up to 80, and T stage. The main outcome measured was quality-adjusted life-years. In the base case, selecting transanal local excision over abdominoperineal resection resulted in a loss of 0.53 years of life expectancy but a gain of 0.97 quality-adjusted life-years. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated a health state utility value threshold for permanent colostomy of 0.93. This value ranged from 0.88 to 1.0 based on tumor recurrence risk. There were no other model sensitivities. Some model parameter estimates were based on weak data. In our model, transanal local excision was found to be the preferable approach for most patients. An abdominoperineal resection has a 3.5% longer life expectancy, but this advantage is lost when the quality-of-life reduction reported by stoma patients is weighed in. The minority group in whom abdominoperineal resection is preferred are those who are unwilling to sacrifice 7% of their life expectancy to avoid a permanent stoma. This is estimated to be approximately 25% of all patients. The threshold increases to 12% of life expectancy in high-risk tumors. No other factors are found to be relevant to the decision.

Accuracy of urinary human papillomavirus testing for presence of cervical HPV: systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Pathak, Neha; Dodds, Julie; Khan, Khalid

2014-01-01

Objective To determine the accuracy of testing for human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA in urine in detecting cervical HPV in sexually active women. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Searches of electronic databases from inception until December 2013, checks of reference lists, manual searches of recent issues of relevant journals, and contact with experts. Eligibility criteria Test accuracy studies in sexually active women that compared detection of urine HPV DNA with detection of cervical HPV DNA. Data extraction and synthesis Data relating to patient characteristics, study context, risk of bias, and test accuracy. 2×2 tables were constructed and synthesised by bivariate mixed effects meta-analysis. Results 16 articles reporting on 14 studies (1443 women) were eligible for meta-analysis. Most used commercial polymerase chain reaction methods on first void urine samples. Urine detection of any HPV had a pooled sensitivity of 87% (95% confidence interval 78% to 92%) and specificity of 94% (95% confidence interval 82% to 98%). Urine detection of high risk HPV had a pooled sensitivity of 77% (68% to 84%) and specificity of 88% (58% to 97%). Urine detection of HPV 16 and 18 had a pooled sensitivity of 73% (56% to 86%) and specificity of 98% (91% to 100%). Metaregression revealed an increase in sensitivity when urine samples were collected as first void compared with random or midstream (P=0.004). Limitations The major limitations of this review are the lack of a strictly uniform method for the detection of HPV in urine and the variation in accuracy between individual studies. Conclusions Testing urine for HPV seems to have good accuracy for the detection of cervical HPV, and testing first void urine samples is more accurate than random or midstream sampling. When cervical HPV detection is considered difficult in particular subgroups, urine testing should be regarded as an acceptable alternative. PMID:25232064

The relevance of the slope for concentration-effect relations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schobben, H.P.M.; Smit, M.; Schobben, J.H.M.

1995-12-31

Risk analysis is mostly based on a comparison of one value for the exposure to a chemical (PEC) and one value for the sensitivity of biota (NEC). This method enables the determination of an effect to be expected, but it is not possible to quantify the magnitude of that effect. Moreover, it is impossible to estimate the effect of a combination of chemicals. Therefore, it is necessary to use a mathematical function to describe the relation between a concentration and the subsequent effect. These relations are typically based on a log normal or log logistic distribution of the sensitivity ofmore » individuals of a species. This distribution is characterized by the median sensitivity (EC{sub 50}) and the variation between the sensitivity of individuals (being a measure for the slope of the relation). Presently the attention is focused on the median, while the slope might be even more important. Relevant exposure concentrations are typically in the range which are found in the left tail of the sensitivity distribution. In this study the slope was determined for 250 chemical-species combinations. The data were derived from original experiments and from literature. The slope is highly dependent on the exposure time; the shorter the exposure time the steeper the slope. If data for a standard exposure time [96 hours] are considered, the total variation in slope can partly be explained by the groups of organisms and chemicals. The slope for heavy metals tends to be less steep as compared to the slope of narcotic organic compounds. The slope for fish and molluscs is steeper than for crustaceans. The results of this study are presently applied in a number of risk analysis studies.« less

Increased Risk of Post-Thrombolysis Intracranial Hemorrhage in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients with Leukoaraiosis: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Lin, Qianqian; Li, Zhong; Wei, Rui; Lei, Qingfeng; Liu, Yunyun; Cai, Xiaodong

2016-01-01

Background Leukoaraiosis is common in patients with acute ischemic stroke. The results from many studies investigating the association between leukoaraiosis and intracranial hemorrhage after thrombolysis remain conflicting. Methods A meta-analysis was performed to compare the risk of post-thrombolytic intracranial hemorrhage in patients with and without leukoaraiosis. Relevant reports were identified by searching PubMed, EmBase, Cochrane Library, and ISI Web of Science through December 2015 using a combination of subjective and random terms. Eligible studies that were original articles with a clear definition of leukoaraiosis and intracranial hemorrhage were selected and analyzed. Funnel plots, Egger’s test, and Begg’s test were conducted to assess the publication bias. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to evaluate the influence of each individual study. Results Eleven trials that enrolled 6912 participants were included. There was a significantly increased risk for acute ischemic stroke patients with leukoaraiosis (odds ratio: 1.89, 95% confidence interval 1.51–2.37, P<0.001). Low heterogeneity and less publication bias was detected among these studies. The results of both computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging performed on the subgroups of leukoaraiosis were significant. Furthermore, an association between leukoaraiosis and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage was also confirmed. The odds ratios remained stable with no obvious variations on the sensitivity analysis. The limitations consisted of types of including trials and not matching some baseline variables. Conclusions The results of this meta-analysis show that leukoaraiosis approximately doubles the incidence of intracranial hemorrhage after thrombolytic therapy. However, it does not critically affect decision making regarding thrombolysis for patients with acute ischemic stroke. Additional investigations are required. PMID:27096292

Sequential vs simultaneous revascularization in patients undergoing liver transplantation: A meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Wang, Jia-Zhong; Liu, Yang; Wang, Jin-Long; Lu, Le; Zhang, Ya-Fei; Lu, Hong-Wei; Li, Yi-Ming

2015-01-01

AIM: We undertook this meta-analysis to investigate the relationship between revascularization and outcomes after liver transplantation. METHODS: A literature search was performed using MeSH and key words. The quality of the included studies was assessed using the Jadad Score and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Heterogeneity was evaluated by the χ2 and I2 tests. The risk of publication bias was assessed using a funnel plot and Egger’s test, and the risk of bias was assessed using a domain-based assessment tool. A sensitivity analysis was conducted by reanalyzing the data using different statistical approaches. RESULTS: Six studies with a total of 467 patients were included. Ischemic-type biliary lesions were significantly reduced in the simultaneous revascularization group compared with the sequential revascularization group (OR = 4.97, 95%CI: 2.45-10.07; P < 0.00001), and intensive care unit (ICU) days were decreased (MD = 2.00, 95%CI: 0.55-3.45; P = 0.007) in the simultaneous revascularization group. Although warm ischemia time was prolonged in simultaneous revascularization group (MD = -25.84, 95%CI: -29.28-22.40; P < 0.00001), there were no significant differences in other outcomes between sequential and simultaneous revascularization groups. Assessment of the risk of bias showed that the methods of random sequence generation and blinding might have been a source of bias. The sensitivity analysis strengthened the reliability of the results of this meta-analysis. CONCLUSION: The results of this study indicate that simultaneous revascularization in liver transplantation may reduce the incidence of ischemic-type biliary lesions and length of stay of patients in the ICU. PMID:26078582

Commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay versuspolymerase chain reaction for the diagnosis of chronic Chagas disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Brasil, Pedro Emmanuel Alvarenga Americano do; Castro, Rodolfo; Castro, Liane de

2016-01-01

Chronic Chagas disease diagnosis relies on laboratory tests due to its clinical characteristics. The aim of this research was to review commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic test performance. Performance of commercial ELISA or PCR for the diagnosis of chronic Chagas disease were systematically searched in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, ISI Web, and LILACS through the bibliography from 1980-2014 and by contact with the manufacturers. The risk of bias was assessed with QUADAS-2. Heterogeneity was estimated with the I2 statistic. Accuracies provided by the manufacturers usually overestimate the accuracy provided by academia. The risk of bias is high in most tests and in most QUADAS dimensions. Heterogeneity is high in either sensitivity, specificity, or both. The evidence regarding commercial ELISA and ELISA-rec sensitivity and specificity indicates that there is overestimation. The current recommendation to use two simultaneous serological tests can be supported by the risk of bias analysis and the amount of heterogeneity but not by the observed accuracies. The usefulness of PCR tests are debatable and health care providers should not order them on a routine basis. PCR may be used in selected cases due to its potential to detect seronegative subjects.

Two retailer-supplier supply chain models with default risk under trade credit policy.

PubMed

Wu, Chengfeng; Zhao, Qiuhong

2016-01-01

The purpose of the paper is to formulate two uncooperative replenishment models with demand and default risk which are the functions of the trade credit period, i.e., a Nash equilibrium model and a supplier-Stackelberg model. Firstly, we present the optimal results of decentralized decision and centralized decision without trade credit. Secondly, we derive the existence and uniqueness conditions of the optimal solutions under the two games, respectively. Moreover, we present a set of theorems and corollary to determine the optimal solutions. Finally, we provide an example and sensitivity analysis to illustrate the proposed strategy and optimal solutions. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the total profits of supply chain under the two games both are better than the results under the centralized decision only if the optimal trade credit period isn't too short. It also reveals that the size of trade credit period, demand, retailer's profit and supplier's profit have strong relationship with the increasing demand coefficient, wholesale price, default risk coefficient and production cost. The major contribution of the paper is that we comprehensively compare between the results of decentralized decision and centralized decision without trade credit, Nash equilibrium and supplier-Stackelberg models with trade credit, and obtain some interesting managerial insights and practical implications.

Bias magnification in ecologic studies: a methodological investigation

PubMed Central

Webster, Thomas F

2007-01-01

Background As ecologic studies are often inexpensive to conduct, consideration of the magnitude and direction of ecologic biases may be useful in both study design and sensitivity analysis of results. This paper examines three types of ecologic bias: confounding by group, effect measure modification by group, and non-differential exposure misclassification. Methods Bias of the risk difference on the individual and ecologic levels are compared using two-by-two tables, simple equations, and risk diagrams. Risk diagrams provide a convenient way to simultaneously display information from both levels. Results Confounding by group and effect measure modification by group act in the same direction on the individual and group levels, but have larger impact on the latter. The reduction in exposure variance caused by aggregation magnifies the individual level bias due to ignoring groups. For some studies, the magnification factor can be calculated from the ecologic data alone. Small magnification factors indicate little bias beyond that occurring at the individual level. Aggregation is also responsible for the different impacts of non-differential exposure misclassification on individual and ecologic studies. Conclusion The analytical tools developed here are useful in analyzing ecologic bias. The concept of bias magnification may be helpful in designing ecologic studies and performing sensitivity analysis of their results. PMID:17615079

Commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay versus polymerase chain reaction for the diagnosis of chronic Chagas disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

do Brasil, Pedro Emmanuel Alvarenga Americano; Castro, Rodolfo; de Castro, Liane

2016-01-01

Chronic Chagas disease diagnosis relies on laboratory tests due to its clinical characteristics. The aim of this research was to review commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic test performance. Performance of commercial ELISA or PCR for the diagnosis of chronic Chagas disease were systematically searched in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, ISI Web, and LILACS through the bibliography from 1980-2014 and by contact with the manufacturers. The risk of bias was assessed with QUADAS-2. Heterogeneity was estimated with the I2 statistic. Accuracies provided by the manufacturers usually overestimate the accuracy provided by academia. The risk of bias is high in most tests and in most QUADAS dimensions. Heterogeneity is high in either sensitivity, specificity, or both. The evidence regarding commercial ELISA and ELISA-rec sensitivity and specificity indicates that there is overestimation. The current recommendation to use two simultaneous serological tests can be supported by the risk of bias analysis and the amount of heterogeneity but not by the observed accuracies. The usefulness of PCR tests are debatable and health care providers should not order them on a routine basis. PCR may be used in selected cases due to its potential to detect seronegative subjects. PMID:26814640

Primary treatments for clinically localised prostate cancer: a comprehensive lifetime cost-utility analysis.

PubMed

Cooperberg, Matthew R; Ramakrishna, Naren R; Duff, Steven B; Hughes, Kathleen E; Sadownik, Sara; Smith, Joseph A; Tewari, Ashutosh K

2013-03-01

WHAT'S KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT? AND WHAT DOES THE STUDY ADD?: Multiple treatment alternatives exist for localised prostate cancer, with few high-quality studies directly comparing their comparative effectiveness and costs. The present study is the most comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis to date for localised prostate cancer, conducted with a lifetime horizon and accounting for survival, health-related quality-of-life, and cost impact of secondary treatments and other downstream events, as well as primary treatment choices. The analysis found minor differences, generally slightly favouring surgical methods, in quality-adjusted life years across treatment options. However, radiation therapy (RT) was consistently more expensive than surgery, and some alternatives, e.g. intensity-modulated RT for low-risk disease, were dominated - that is, both more expensive and less effective than competing alternatives. To characterise the costs and outcomes associated with radical prostatectomy (open, laparoscopic, or robot-assisted) and radiation therapy (RT: dose-escalated three-dimensional conformal RT, intensity-modulated RT, brachytherapy, or combination), using a comprehensive, lifetime decision analytical model. A Markov model was constructed to follow hypothetical men with low-, intermediate-, and high-risk prostate cancer over their lifetimes after primary treatment; probabilities of outcomes were based on an exhaustive literature search yielding 232 unique publications. In each Markov cycle, patients could have remission, recurrence, salvage treatment, metastasis, death from prostate cancer, and death from other causes. Utilities for each health state were determined, and disutilities were applied for complications and toxicities of treatment. Costs were determined from the USA payer perspective, with incorporation of patient costs in a sensitivity analysis. Differences across treatments in quality-adjusted life years across methods were modest, ranging from 10.3 to 11.3 for low-risk patients, 9.6-10.5 for intermediate-risk patients and 7.8-9.3 for high-risk patients. There were no statistically significant differences among surgical methods, which tended to be more effective than RT methods, with the exception of combined external beam + brachytherapy for high-risk disease. RT methods were consistently more expensive than surgical methods; costs ranged from $19 901 (robot-assisted prostatectomy for low-risk disease) to $50 276 (combined RT for high-risk disease). These findings were robust to an extensive set of sensitivity analyses. Our analysis found small differences in outcomes and substantial differences in payer and patient costs across treatment alternatives. These findings may inform future policy discussions about strategies to improve efficiency of treatment selection for localised prostate cancer. © 2012 BJU International.

Gastroprotective strategies in chronic NSAID users: a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing single-tablet formulations with individual components.

PubMed

de Groot, N L; Spiegel, B M R; van Haalen, H G M; de Wit, N J; Siersema, P D; van Oijen, M G H

2013-01-01

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of competing gastroprotective strategies, including single-tablet formulations, in the prevention of gastrointestinal (GI) complications in patients with chronic arthritis taking nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). We performed a cost-utility analysis to compare eight gastroprotective strategies including NSAIDs, cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors, proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), histamine-2 receptor antagonists, misoprostol, and single-tablet formulations. We derived estimates for outcomes and costs from medical literature. The primary outcome was incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. We performed sensitivity analyses to assess the effect of GI complications, compliance rates, and drug costs. For average-risk patients, NSAID + PPI cotherapy was most cost-effective. The NSAID/PPI single-tablet formulation became cost-effective only when its price decreased from €0.78 to €0.56 per tablet, or when PPI compliance fell below 51% in the NSAID + PPI strategy. All other strategies were more costly and less effective. The model was highly sensitive to the GI complication risk, costs of PPI and NSAID/PPI single-tablet formulation, and compliance to PPI. In patients with a threefold higher risk of GI complications, both NSAID + PPI cotherapy and single-tablet formulation were cost-effective. NSAID + PPI cotherapy is the most cost-effective strategy in all patients with chronic arthritis irrespective of their risk for GI complications. For patients with increased GI risk, the NSAID/PPI single-tablet formulation is also cost-effective. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epstein-Barr virus is associated with periodontal diseases: A meta-analysis based on 21 case-control studies.

PubMed

Gao, Zilong; Lv, Juan; Wang, Min

2017-02-01

Some controversies still exist between the detection of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)'s DNA and risks of periodontal diseases. Hence, a comprehensive meta-analysis on all available literatures was performed to clarify the relationship between EBV and preidontitis.A comprehensive search was conducted within the PUBMED, EMBASE, and WANFANG databases up to October 10th, 2016 according to inclusion and exclusion criteria and finally 21 case-control literatures were obtained. The outcomes including odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to assess the strength of associations. Publication bias was determined by Begg or Egger test. Sensitivity analysis was used to investigate reliability and stability of the results.According to the data from included trials, the association between overall increased risks of periodontitis and the detection of EBV was significant (OR = 6.199, 95% CI = 3.119-12.319, P < 0.001). In the disease-type analysis, the pooled ORs for chronic periodontitis and aggressive periodontitis were 6.586 (95% CI = 3.042-14.262, P < 0.001) and 8.361 (95% CI = 2.109-33.143, P = 0.003), respectively. In the subgroup analysis of ethnicity, our results suggested that high EBV-detecting frequencies were correlated with increased risks of periodontitis in Asians, Europeans, and Americans (P < 0.001). Subgroup analysis by the sample type showed that subgingival plaque (SgP) samples and tissue samples were available for EBV detecting (P < 0.001). Detecting EBV of samples in ≥5 (6) mm sites of periodontal pockets were easier than in ≤3-mm sites (P = 0.023).This meta-analysis indicates that high frequent detection of EBV correlates with increased risk of periodontal diseases. SgP and tissue are available for detecting EBV in patients of periodontitis. At last, our results suggest that detecting EBV of samples in =5 (6) mm sites of periodontal pockets are more sensitive than in ≤3-mm sites.

Predicting urinary incontinence in women in later life: A systematic review.

PubMed

Troko, Joy; Bach, Fiona; Toozs-Hobson, Philip

2016-12-01

Urinary incontinence (UI) affects 10-40% of the population and treatment costs in the UK are estimated to be £233 million per annum. A systematic review of online medical databases between July 1974 and 2016 was conducted to identify studies that had investigated risk and prediction strategies of UI in later life. Eighteen prospective longitudinal studies fulfilled the search criteria. These were analysed systematically (as per the PRISMA checklist) and bias risk through study design was minimised where possible upon data analysis. One paper proposed a predictive assessment tool called the 'continence index'. It was derived following secondary analysis of a cohort study and its predictive threshold had suboptimal sensitivity (79%) and specificity (65%) rates. Seventeen studies identified multiple strong risk factors for UI but despite a large selection of papers on the topic, no robust risk assessment tool prospectively identified patients at risk of UI in later life. Thus more research in this field is required. Clinicians should be aware particularly of modifiable UI risk factors to help reduce the clinical burden of UI in the long term. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Risk-based screening for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae prior to intrauterine device insertion.

PubMed

Grentzer, Jaclyn M; Peipert, Jeffrey F; Zhao, Qiuhong; McNicholas, Colleen; Secura, Gina M; Madden, Tessa

2015-10-01

The objective was to compare three strategies for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae screening prior to intrauterine device (IUD) insertion. This was a secondary analysis of the Contraceptive CHOICE Project. We measured the prevalence of C. trachomatis and/or N. gonorrhoeae at the time of IUD insertion. We then compared sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values, and likelihood ratios for three screening strategies for C. trachomatis and N. gonorrhoeae prior to IUD insertion: (a) "age-based" — age ≤25 years alone; (b) "age/partner-based" — age ≤25 and/or multiple sexual partners; and (c) "risk-based" — age ≤25, multiple sexual partners, inconsistent condom use and/or history of prior sexually transmitted infection (STI). Among 5087 IUD users, 140 (2.8%) tested positive for C. trachomatis, 16 (0.3%) tested positive for N. gonorrhoeae, and 6 (0.1%) were positive for both at the time of IUD insertion. The "risk-based" screening strategy had the highest sensitivity (99.3%) compared to "age-based" and "age/partner-based" screening (80.7% and 84.7%, respectively.) Only one (0.7%) woman with a chlamydia or gonorrhea infection would not have been screened using "risk-based" screening. A risk-based strategy to screen for C. trachomatis and N. gonorrhoeae prior to IUD insertion has higher sensitivity than screening based on age alone or age and multiple sexual partners. Using a risk-based screening strategy (age≤25, multiple sexual partners, inconsistent condom use and/or history of an STI) to determine who should be screened for C. trachomatis and N. gonorrhoeae prior to IUD insertion will miss very few cases of infection and obviates the need for universal screening. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative risk assessment for skin sensitization: Success or failure?

PubMed

Kimber, Ian; Gerberick, G Frank; Basketter, David A

2017-02-01

Skin sensitization is unique in the world of toxicology. There is a combination of reliable, validated predictive test methods for identification of skin sensitizing chemicals, a clearly documented and transparent approach to risk assessment, and effective feedback from dermatology clinics around the world delivering evidence of the success or failure of the hazard identification/risk assessment/management process. Recent epidemics of contact allergy, particularly to preservatives, have raised questions of whether the safety/risk assessment process is working in an optimal manner (or indeed is working at all!). This review has as its focus skin sensitization quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The core toxicological principles of QRA are reviewed, and evidence of use and misuse examined. What becomes clear is that skin sensitization QRA will only function adequately if two essential criteria are met. The first is that QRA is applied rigourously, and the second is that potential exposure to the sensitizing substance is assessed adequately. This conclusion will come as no surprise to any toxicologist who appreciates the basic premise that "risk = hazard x exposure". Accordingly, use of skin sensitization QRA is encouraged, not least because the essential feedback from dermatology clinics can be used as a tool to refine QRA in situations where this risk assessment tool has not been properly used. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Patients with Kidney Stones: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Cheungpasitporn, Wisit; Thongprayoon, Charat; Mao, Michael A; O'Corragain, Oisin A; Edmonds, Peter J; Erickson, Stephen B

2014-11-01

The reported risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in patients with a history of kidney stones is conflicting. The objective of this meta-analysis was to assess the association between a history of kidney stones and CHD risk. A literature search was performed using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception until April 04, 2014. Studies that reported odds ratios or hazard ratios comparing the risk of CHD in patients with a history of kidney stones versus those without a history of kidney stones were included. Pooled risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using a random-effect, generic inverse variance method. Seven study populations from four cohort studies and one cross-sectional study were identified and included in the data analysis. The pooled risk ratio (RR) of CHD in patients with kidney stones was 1.24 (95% CI, 1.10-1.40). This result remained significant (RR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.08-1.41]) when the sensitivity analysis was restricted to only cohort studies. A history of kidney stones was associated with increased CHD risk in females (RR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.12-1.82]), whereas the association was not significant in males (RR, 1.14 [95% CI, 0.94-1.38]). Our study demonstrates a statistically significant increased risk of CHD in female patients with prior kidney stones. This finding suggests that a history of kidney stones is a risk factor for CHD in females and may impact clinical management.

A Bayesian Approach to Integrated Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment for the South River, Virginia Mercury-Contaminated Site.

PubMed

Harris, Meagan J; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G

2017-07-01

We conducted a regional-scale integrated ecological and human health risk assessment by applying the relative risk model with Bayesian networks (BN-RRM) to a case study of the South River, Virginia mercury-contaminated site. Risk to four ecological services of the South River (human health, water quality, recreation, and the recreational fishery) was evaluated using a multiple stressor-multiple endpoint approach. These four ecological services were selected as endpoints based on stakeholder feedback and prioritized management goals for the river. The BN-RRM approach allowed for the calculation of relative risk to 14 biotic, human health, recreation, and water quality endpoints from chemical and ecological stressors in five risk regions of the South River. Results indicated that water quality and the recreational fishery were the ecological services at highest risk in the South River. Human health risk for users of the South River was low relative to the risk to other endpoints. Risk to recreation in the South River was moderate with little spatial variability among the five risk regions. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified stressors and other parameters that influence risk for each endpoint in each risk region. This research demonstrates a probabilistic approach to integrated ecological and human health risk assessment that considers the effects of chemical and ecological stressors across the landscape. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Leveraging cross-species transcription factor binding site patterns: from diabetes risk loci to disease mechanisms.

PubMed

Claussnitzer, Melina; Dankel, Simon N; Klocke, Bernward; Grallert, Harald; Glunk, Viktoria; Berulava, Tea; Lee, Heekyoung; Oskolkov, Nikolay; Fadista, Joao; Ehlers, Kerstin; Wahl, Simone; Hoffmann, Christoph; Qian, Kun; Rönn, Tina; Riess, Helene; Müller-Nurasyid, Martina; Bretschneider, Nancy; Schroeder, Timm; Skurk, Thomas; Horsthemke, Bernhard; Spieler, Derek; Klingenspor, Martin; Seifert, Martin; Kern, Michael J; Mejhert, Niklas; Dahlman, Ingrid; Hansson, Ola; Hauck, Stefanie M; Blüher, Matthias; Arner, Peter; Groop, Leif; Illig, Thomas; Suhre, Karsten; Hsu, Yi-Hsiang; Mellgren, Gunnar; Hauner, Hans; Laumen, Helmut

2014-01-16

Genome-wide association studies have revealed numerous risk loci associated with diverse diseases. However, identification of disease-causing variants within association loci remains a major challenge. Divergence in gene expression due to cis-regulatory variants in noncoding regions is central to disease susceptibility. We show that integrative computational analysis of phylogenetic conservation with a complexity assessment of co-occurring transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) can identify cis-regulatory variants and elucidate their mechanistic role in disease. Analysis of established type 2 diabetes risk loci revealed a striking clustering of distinct homeobox TFBS. We identified the PRRX1 homeobox factor as a repressor of PPARG2 expression in adipose cells and demonstrate its adverse effect on lipid metabolism and systemic insulin sensitivity, dependent on the rs4684847 risk allele that triggers PRRX1 binding. Thus, cross-species conservation analysis at the level of co-occurring TFBS provides a valuable contribution to the translation of genetic association signals to disease-related molecular mechanisms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty as Knowledge: Constraints on Policy Choices Provided by Analysis of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowsky, S.; Risbey, J.; Smithson, M.; Newell, B. R.

2012-12-01

Uncertainty forms an integral part of climate science, and it is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. We argue that an analysis of uncertainty must consider existing knowledge as well as uncertainty, and the two must be evaluated with respect to the outcomes and risks associated with possible policy options. Although risk judgments are inherently subjective, an analysis of the role of uncertainty within the climate system yields two constraints that are robust to a broad range of assumptions. Those constraints are that (a) greater uncertainty about the climate system is necessarily associated with greater expected damages from warming, and (b) greater uncertainty translates into a greater risk of the failure of mitigation efforts. These ordinal constraints are unaffected by subjective or cultural risk-perception factors, they are independent of the discount rate, and they are independent of the magnitude of the estimate for climate sensitivity. The constraints mean that any appeal to uncertainty must imply a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.

Prevalence of allergic sensitization in the U.S.: Results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005–2006

PubMed Central

Salo, Päivi M.; Arbes, Samuel J.; Jaramillo, Renee; Calatroni, Agustin; Weir, Charles H.; Sever, Michelle L.; Hoppin, Jane A.; Rose, Kathryn M.; Liu, Andrew H.; Gergen, Peter J.; Mitchell, Herman E.; Zeldin, Darryl C.

2014-01-01

Background Allergic sensitization is an important risk factor for the development of atopic disease. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005–2006 provides the most comprehensive information on IgE-mediated sensitization in the general US population. Objective We investigated clustering, sociodemographic and regional patterns of allergic sensitization and examined risk factors associated with IgE-mediated sensitization. Methods Data for this cross-sectional analysis were obtained from NHANES 2005–2006. Participants aged ≥1 year (N=9440) were tested for sIgEs to inhalant and food allergens; participants ≥6 years were tested for 19 sIgEs, and children aged 1–5 years for 9 sIgEs. Serum samples were analyzed using the ImmunoCAP System. Information on demographics and participant characteristics was collected by questionnaire. Results Of the study population aged 6 and older, 44.6% had detectable sIgEs, while 36.2% of children aged 1–5 years were sensitized to ≥1 allergen. Allergen-specific IgEs clustered into 7 groups that might have largely reflected biological cross-reactivity. Although sensitization to individual allergens and allergen types showed regional variation, the overall prevalence of sensitization did not differ across census regions, except in early childhood. In multivariate modeling, young age, male gender, non-Hispanic black race/ethnicity, geographic location (census region), and reported pet avoidance measures were most consistently associated with IgE-mediated sensitization. Conclusions The overall prevalence of allergic sensitization does not vary across US census regions, except in early life, although allergen-specific sensitization differs by sociodemographic and regional factors. Biological cross-reactivity may be an important, but not a sole, contributor to the clustering of allergen-specific IgEs. Clinical implications IgE-mediated sensitization shows clustering patterns and differs by sociodemographic and regional factors, but the overall prevalence of sensitization may not vary across US census regions. PMID:24522093

High-sensitive factor I and C-reactive protein based biomarkers for coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Zhao, Qing; Du, Jian-Shi; Han, Dong-Mei; Ma, Ying

2014-01-01

An analysis of high-sensitive factor I and C-reactive proteins as biomarkers for coronary artery disease has been performed from 19 anticipated cohort studies that included 21,567 participants having no information about coronary artery disease. Besides, the clinical implications of statin therapy initiated due to assessment of factor I and C-reactive proteins have also been modeled during studies. The measure of risk discrimination (C-index) was increased (by 0.0101) as per the prognostic model for coronary artery disease with respect to sex, smoking status, age, blood pressure, total cholesterol level along with diabetic history characteristic parameters. The C-index was further raised by 0.0045 and 0.0053 when factor I and C-reactive proteins based information were added, respectively which finally predicted 10-year risk categories as: high (> 20%), medium (10% to < 20%), and low (< 10%) risks. We found 2,254 persons (among 15,000 adults (age ≥ 45 years)) would initially be classified as being at medium risk for coronary artery disease when only conventional risk factors were used as calculated risk. Besides, persons with a predicted risk of more than 20% as well as for persons suffering from other risk factors (i.e. diabetes), statin therapy was initiated (irrespective of their decade old predicted risk). We conclude that under current treatment guidelines assessment of factor I and C-reactive proteins levels (as biomarker) in people at medium risk for coronary artery disease could prevent one additional coronary artery disease risk over a period a decade for every 390-500 people screened.

The Effect of Vitamin A on Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xinge; Zhang, Rui; Wang, Yueqiao; Yan, Hanyi; Wu, Yingru; Tan, Anran; Fu, Jialin; Shen, Ziqiong; Qin, Guiyu; Li, Rui; Chen, Guoxun

2017-01-01

This meta-analysis evaluated the influence of dietary intake and blood level of vitamin A (total vitamin A, retinol or β-carotene) on total and hip fracture risk. Cohort studies published before July 2017 were selected through English-language literature searches in several databases. Relative risk (RR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to evaluate the risk. Heterogeneity was checked by Chi-square and I2 test. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias were also performed. For the association between retinol intake and total fracture risk, we performed subgroup analysis by sex, region, case ascertainment, education level, age at menopause and vitamin D intake. R software was used to complete all statistical analyses. A total of 319,077 participants over the age of 20 years were included. Higher dietary intake of retinol and total vitamin A may slightly decrease total fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 0.95 (0.91, 1.00) and 0.94 (0.88, 0.99), respectively), and increase hip fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 1.40 (1.02, 1.91) and 1.29 (1.06, 1.57), respectively). Lower blood level of retinol may slightly increase total fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 1.11 (0.94, 1.30)) and hip fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 1.27 (1.05, 1.53)). In addition, higher β-carotene intake was weakly associated with the increased risk of total fracture (RR with 95% CI: 1.07 (0.97, 1.17)). Our data suggest that vitamin A intake and level may differentially influence the risks of total and hip fractures. Clinical trials are warranted to confirm these results and assess the clinical applicability. PMID:28891953

Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

PubMed

Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

2017-09-06

Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

Development and Validation of a Risk Scale for Emergence Agitation After General Anesthesia in Children: A Prospective Observational Study.

PubMed

Hino, Maai; Mihara, Takahiro; Miyazaki, Saeko; Hijikata, Toshiyuki; Miwa, Takaaki; Goto, Takahisa; Ka, Koui

2017-08-01

Emergence agitation (EA) is a common complication in children after general anesthesia. The goal of this 2-phase study was (1) to develop a predictive model (EA risk scale) for the incidence of EA in children receiving sevoflurane anesthesia by performing a retrospective analysis of data from our previous study (phase 1) and (2) to determine the validity of the EA risk scale in a prospective observational cohort study (phase 2). Using data collected from 120 patients in our previous study, logistic regression analysis was used to predict the incidence of EA in phase 1. The optimal combination of the predictors was determined by a stepwise selection procedure using Akaike information criterion. The β-coefficient for the selected predictors was calculated, and scores for predictors determined. The predictive ability of the EA risk scale was assessed by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the area under the ROC curve (c-index) was calculated with a 95% confidence interval (CI). In phase 2, the validity of the EA risk scale was confirmed using another data set of 100 patients (who underwent minor surgery under general anesthesia). The ROC curve, the c-index, the best cutoff point, and the sensitivity and specificity at the point were calculated. In addition, we calculated the gray zone, which ranges between the two points where sensitivity and specificity, respectively, become 90%. In phase 1, the final model of the multivariable logistic regression analysis included the following 4 predictors: age (logarithm odds ratios [OR], -0.38; 95% CI, -0.81 to 0.00), Pediatric Anesthesia Behavior score (logarithm OR, 0.65; 95% CI, -0.09 to 1.40), anesthesia time (logarithm OR, 0.60; 95% CI, -0.18 to 1.19), and operative procedure (logarithm OR, 2.53; 95% CI, 1.30-3.75 for strabismus surgery and logarithm OR, 2.71; 95% CI, 0.99-4.45 for tonsillectomy). The EA risk scale included these 4 predictors and ranged from 1 to 23 points. In phase 2, the incidence of EA was 39%. The c-index of phase 1 was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.74-0.94), and the c-index of phase 2 was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72-0.89). The best cutoff point for the EA risk scale was 11 (sensitivity = 87% and specificity = 61%). The gray zone ranged from 10 to 13 points, and included 38% of patients. We developed and validated an EA risk scale for children receiving sevoflurane anesthesia. In our validation cohort, this scale has excellent predictive performance (c-index > 0.8). The EA risk scale could be used to predict EA in children and adopt a preventive strategy for those at high risk. This score-based preventive approach should be studied prospectively to assess the safety and efficacy of such a strategy.

Strategies to diagnose ovarian cancer: new evidence from phase 3 of the multicentre international IOTA study.

PubMed

Testa, A; Kaijser, J; Wynants, L; Fischerova, D; Van Holsbeke, C; Franchi, D; Savelli, L; Epstein, E; Czekierdowski, A; Guerriero, S; Fruscio, R; Leone, F P G; Vergote, I; Bourne, T; Valentin, L; Van Calster, B; Timmerman, D

2014-08-12

To compare different ultrasound-based international ovarian tumour analysis (IOTA) strategies and risk of malignancy index (RMI) for ovarian cancer diagnosis using a meta-analysis approach of centre-specific data from IOTA3. This prospective multicentre diagnostic accuracy study included 2403 patients with 1423 benign and 980 malignant adnexal masses from 2009 until 2012. All patients underwent standardised transvaginal ultrasonography. Test performance of RMI, subjective assessment (SA) of ultrasound findings, two IOTA risk models (LR1 and LR2), and strategies involving combinations of IOTA simple rules (SRs), simple descriptors (SDs) and LR2 with and without SA was estimated using a meta-analysis approach. Reference standard was histology after surgery. The areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves of LR1, LR2, SA and RMI were 0.930 (0.917-0.942), 0.918 (0.905-0.930), 0.914 (0.886-0.936) and 0.875 (0.853-0.894). Diagnostic one-step and two-step strategies using LR1, LR2, SR and SD achieved summary estimates for sensitivity 90-96%, specificity 74-79% and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) 32.8-50.5. Adding SA when IOTA methods yielded equivocal results improved performance (DOR 57.6-75.7). Risk of Malignancy Index had sensitivity 67%, specificity 91% and DOR 17.5. This study shows all IOTA strategies had excellent diagnostic performance in comparison with RMI. The IOTA strategy chosen may be determined by clinical preference.

The Behavioral Approach System (BAS) Model of Vulnerability to Bipolar Disorder: Evidence of a Continuum in BAS Sensitivity across Adolescence.

PubMed

Liu, Richard T; Burke, Taylor A; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2017-11-04

Behavioral Approach System (BAS) sensitivity has been implicated in the development of a variety of different psychiatric disorders. Prominent among these in the empirical literature are bipolar spectrum disorders (BSDs). Given that adolescence represents a critical developmental stage of risk for the onset of BSDs, it is important to clarify the latent structure of BAS sensitivity in this period of development. A statistical approach especially well-suited for delineating the latent structure of BAS sensitivity is taxometric analysis, which is designed to evaluate whether the latent structure of a construct is taxonic (i.e., categorical) or dimensional (i.e., continuous) in nature. The current study applied three mathematically non-redundant taxometric procedures (i.e., MAMBAC, MAXEIG, and L-Mode) to a large community sample of adolescents (n = 12,494) who completed two separate measures of BAS sensitivity: the BIS/BAS Scales Carver and White (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67, 319-333. 1994) and the Sensitivity to Reward and Sensitivity to Punishment Questionnaire (Torrubia et al. Personality and Individual Differences, 31, 837-862. 2001). Given the significant developmental changes in reward sensitivity that occur across adolescence, the current investigation aimed to provide a fine-grained evaluation of the data by performing taxometric analyses at an age-by-age level (14-19 years; n for each age ≥ 883). Results derived from taxometric procedures, across all ages tested, were highly consistent, providing strong evidence that BAS sensitivity is best conceptualized as dimensional in nature. Thus, the findings suggest that BAS-related vulnerability to BSDs exists along a continuum of severity, with no natural cut-point qualitatively differentiating high- and low-risk adolescents. Clinical and research implications for the assessment of BSD-related vulnerability are discussed.

Comparative efficacy of chloroquine and sulphadoxine--pyrimethamine in pregnant women and children: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kalanda, Gertrude C; Hill, Jenny; Verhoeff, Francine H; Brabin, Bernard J

2006-05-01

To compare the efficacy of chloroquine and sulphadoxine-pyremethamine against Plasmodium falciparum infection in pregnant women and in children from the same endemic areas of Africa, with the aim of determining the level of correspondence in efficacy determinations in these two risk groups. Meta-analysis of nine published and unpublished in vivo antimalarial efficacy studies in pregnant women and in children across five African countries. Pregnant women (all gravidae) were more likely to be sensitive than children to both chloroquine (odds ratio: 2.07; 95% confidence interval: 1.5, 2.9) and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (odds ratio: 2.66; 95% confidence interval: 11.1, 6.7). Pregnant women demonstrated an almost uniform increased sensitivity for peripheral parasite clearance at day 14 compared with children. This finding was consistent across a wide range of drug sensitivities. Primigravidae at day 14 showed lower clearance to antimalarial drugs than multigravidae (P<0.05). There was no significant difference between parasite clearance in primigravidae and in children. The greater drug sensitivity in pregnant women probably indicates differences in host susceptibility rather than parasite resistance. Parasite sensitivity patterns in children may be a suitable guide to antimalarial policy in pregnant women.

mHealth App for Risk Assessment of Pigmented and Nonpigmented Skin Lesions-A Study on Sensitivity and Specificity in Detecting Malignancy.

PubMed

Thissen, Monique; Udrea, Andreea; Hacking, Michelle; von Braunmuehl, Tanja; Ruzicka, Thomas

2017-12-01

With the advent of smartphone devices, an increasing number of mHealth applications that target melanoma identification have been developed, but none addresses the general context of melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancer identification. In this study a smartphone application using fractal and classical image analysis for the risk assessment of skin lesions is systematically evaluated to determine its sensitivity and specificity in the diagnosis of melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancer along with actinic keratosis and Bowen's disease. In the Department of Dermatology, Catharina Hospital Eindhoven, The Netherlands, 341 melanocytic and nonmelanocytic lesions were imaged using SkinVision app; 239 underwent histopathological examination, while the rest of 102 lesions were clinically diagnosed as clearly benign and not removed. The algorithm has been calibrated using the images of the first 233 lesions. The calibrated version of the algorithm was used in a subset of 108 lesions, and the obtained results were compared with the medical findings. On the 108 cases used for evaluation the algorithm scored 80% sensitivity and 78% specificity in detecting (pre)malignant conditions. Although less accurate than the dermatologist's clinical eye, the app may offer support to other professionals who are less familiar with differentiating between benign and malignant lesions. An mHealth application for the risk assessment of skin lesions was evaluated. It adds value to diagnosis tools of its type by taking into consideration pigmented and nonpigmented lesions all together and detecting signs of malignancy with high sensitivity.

Lack of control of hypertension in primary cardiovascular disease prevention in Europe: Results from the EURIKA study.

PubMed

Borghi, Claudio; Tubach, Florence; De Backer, Guy; Dallongeville, Jean; Guallar, Eliseo; Medina, Jesús; Perk, Joep; Roy, Carine; Banegas, José R; Rodriguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Halcox, Julian P

2016-09-01

The prevalence of and factors associated with uncontrolled hypertension and apparent resistant hypertension were assessed in the European Study on Cardiovascular Risk Prevention and Management in Usual Daily Practice (EURIKA; NCT00882336). EURIKA was a cross-sectional observational study including patients being treated for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in 12 European countries. Patients were assessed if they were being treated for hypertension (N=5220). Blood pressure control was defined according to European guidelines, with sensitivity analysis taking account of patients' age and diabetes status. Associated factors were assessed using multivariate analysis. In the primary analysis, a total of 2691 patients (51.6%) had uncontrolled hypertension. Factors significantly associated with an increased risk of having uncontrolled hypertension included female sex (odds ratio [OR]: 2.29; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.93-2.73), body mass index (BMI; OR per kg/m(2): 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.04), and geographic location. A total of 749 patients (14.3%) had apparent resistant hypertension. Factors significantly associated with an increased risk of having apparent resistant hypertension included BMI (OR per kg/m(2): 1.06; 95% CI: 1.04-1.08), diabetes (OR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.06-1.53), use of statins (OR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.15-1.62), serum uric acid levels (OR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.09-1.23), and geographic location. Similar results were seen in sensitivity analyses. Over 50% of patients treated for hypertension continued to have uncontrolled blood pressure and 14.3% had apparent resistant hypertension. Positive associations were seen with other cardiovascular risk factors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Risk-Based Approach for Aerothermal/TPS Analysis and Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, Michael J.; Grinstead, Jay H.; Bose, Deepak

2007-01-01

The current status of aerothermal and thermal protection system modeling for civilian entry missions is reviewed. For most such missions, the accuracy of our simulations is limited not by the tools and processes currently employed, but rather by reducible deficiencies in the underlying physical models. Improving the accuracy of and reducing the uncertainties in these models will enable a greater understanding of the system level impacts of a particular thermal protection system and of the system operation and risk over the operational life of the system. A strategic plan will be laid out by which key modeling deficiencies can be identified via mission-specific gap analysis. Once these gaps have been identified, the driving component uncertainties are determined via sensitivity analyses. A Monte-Carlo based methodology is presented for physics-based probabilistic uncertainty analysis of aerothermodynamics and thermal protection system material response modeling. These data are then used to advocate for and plan focused testing aimed at reducing key uncertainties. The results of these tests are used to validate or modify existing physical models. Concurrently, a testing methodology is outlined for thermal protection materials. The proposed approach is based on using the results of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses discussed above to tailor ground testing so as to best identify and quantify system performance and risk drivers. A key component of this testing is understanding the relationship between the test and flight environments. No existing ground test facility can simultaneously replicate all aspects of the flight environment, and therefore good models for traceability to flight are critical to ensure a low risk, high reliability thermal protection system design. Finally, the role of flight testing in the overall thermal protection system development strategy is discussed.

Frequency of progression from acute to chronic pancreatitis and risk factors: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sankaran, Sharanya J; Xiao, Amy Y; Wu, Landy M; Windsor, John A; Forsmark, Christopher E; Petrov, Maxim S

2015-11-01

Acute pancreatitis (AP) and chronic pancreatitis (CP) traditionally have been thought to be distinct diseases, but there is evidence that AP can progress to CP. Little is known about the mechanisms of pancreatitis progression. We performed a meta-analysis to quantify the frequency of transition of AP to CP and identify risk factors for progression. We searched PubMed, Scopus, and Embase for studies of patients with AP who developed CP, published from 1966 through November 2014. Pooled prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for these outcomes, and sensitivity, subgroup, and meta-regression analyses were conducted. We analyzed 14 studies, which included a total of 8492 patients. The pooled prevalence of recurrent AP was 22% (95% CI, 18%-26%), and the pooled prevalence of CP was 10% (95% CI, 6%-15%). Sensitivity analyses yielded a pooled prevalence of CP of 10% (95% CI, 4%-19%) and 36% (95% CI, 20%-53%) in patients after the first occurrence and recurrent AP, respectively. Subgroup analyses found alcohol use and smoking to be the largest risk factors for the development of CP, with pooled prevalence values of 65% (95% CI, 48%-56%) and 61% (95% CI, 47%-73%), respectively. Meta-regression analysis found that men were more likely than women to transition from AP to CP. Ten percent of patients with a first episode of AP and 36% of patients with recurrent AP develop CP; the risk is higher among smokers, alcoholics, and men. Prospective clinical studies are needed to study pancreatitis progression. Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic Value of High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein, Procalcitonin and Pancreatic Stone Protein in Pediatric Sepsis.

PubMed

Wu, Qiong; Nie, Jun; Wu, Fu-Xia; Zou, Xiu-Lan; Chen, Feng-Yi

2017-03-30

BACKGROUND To investigate the prognostic value of procalcitonin (PCT), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and pancreatic stone protein (PSP) in children with sepsis. MATERIAL AND METHODS A total of 214 patients with sepsis during hospitalization were enrolled. Serum levels of PCT, hs-CRP, and PSP were measured on day 1 of hospitalization and the survival rates of children were recorded after a follow-up of 28 days. Pearson's correlation analysis was conducted to test the association of PCT, hs-CRP, and PSP with pediatric critical illness score (PCIS). Logistic regression models were used to analyze the risk factors contributing to patients' death. The AUC was used to determine the value of PCT, hs-CRP, and PSP in the prognosis of patients with sepsis. RESULTS The expression of PCT, hs-CRP, and PSP in the dying patients was higher than in the surviving patients (p<0.001). Pearson's correlation analysis showed that serum PCT, hs-CRP, and PSP levels were negatively correlated with PCIS (p<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression revealed that PCT, hs-CRP, and PSP were independent risk factors for the prognosis of patients with sepsis (p<0.001). ROC analysis showed the AUC values of PCT, hs-CRP, and PSP were 0.83 (95% CI, 0.77-0.88), 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70-0.82), and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67-0.79), respectively. The combined AUC value of PCT, hs-CRP, and PSP, was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.87-0.95), which was significantly increased compared with PCT, hs-CRP, or PSP (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS The combination of serum PCT, hs-CRP, and PSP represents a promising biomarker of risk, and is a useful clinical tool for risk stratification of children with sepsis.

Sensitivity-Informed De Novo Programming for Many-Objective Water Portfolio Planning Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasprzyk, J. R.; Reed, P. M.; Kirsch, B. R.; Characklis, G. W.

2009-12-01

Risk-based water supply management presents severe cognitive, computational, and social challenges to planning in a changing world. Decision aiding frameworks must confront the cognitive biases implicit to risk, the severe uncertainties associated with long term planning horizons, and the consequent ambiguities that shape how we define and solve water resources planning and management problems. This paper proposes and demonstrates a new interactive framework for sensitivity informed de novo programming. The theoretical focus of our many-objective de novo programming is to promote learning and evolving problem formulations to enhance risk-based decision making. We have demonstrated our proposed de novo programming framework using a case study for a single city’s water supply in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) in Texas. Key decisions in this case study include the purchase of permanent rights to reservoir inflows and anticipatory thresholds for acquiring transfers of water through optioning and spot leases. A 10-year Monte Carlo simulation driven by historical data is used to provide performance metrics for the supply portfolios. The three major components of our methodology include Sobol globoal sensitivity analysis, many-objective evolutionary optimization and interactive tradeoff visualization. The interplay between these components allows us to evaluate alternative design metrics, their decision variable controls and the consequent system vulnerabilities. Our LRGV case study measures water supply portfolios’ efficiency, reliability, and utilization of transfers in the water supply market. The sensitivity analysis is used interactively over interannual, annual, and monthly time scales to indicate how the problem controls change as a function of the timescale of interest. These results have been used then to improve our exploration and understanding of LRGV costs, vulnerabilities, and the water portfolios’ critical reliability constraints. These results demonstrate how we can adaptively improve the value and robustness of our problem formulations by evolving our definition of optimality to discover key tradeoffs.

CHILDREN'S CANCER RISK: AGE-RELATED DIFFERENCES IN SUSCEPTIBILITY FOR CARCINOGENESIS--TOWARD A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF EMPIRICAL DATA

EPA Science Inventory

Some sub-populations, such as infants and children or those with weakened immune systems, are known to be particularly sensitive to the effects of certain waterborne pathogens and chemicals. The 1996 Amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) require EPA to conduct research...

Examining metabolic syndrome definitions in overweight Hispanic youth: a focus on insulin resistance.

PubMed

Shaibi, Gabriel Q; Goran, Michael I

2008-02-01

To examine the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in overweight Hispanic youth according to 3 published pediatric definitions. Furthermore, the relationship of each definition to directly measured insulin resistance was examined. We conducted a secondary data analysis of 218 overweight Hispanic youth with a family history of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The metabolic syndrome was defined as >/=3 of these criteria: elevated triglyceride level, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, elevated blood pressure, abdominal obesity, and hyperglycemia. The cutoff points were derived from updated definitions of Cook et al,(1) Cruz et al,(2) and Weiss et al.(3) Insulin sensitivity was determined with the insulin-modified frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test. Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome ranged from 25.7% to 39%, with moderate to substantial agreement between definitions (kappa = 0.52-0.70). Regardless of definition, an inverse relationship between metabolic risk and insulin sensitivity was noted such that children with the metabolic syndrome had 51% to 60% lower insulin sensitivity compared with children without any risk factors (P

Hospitalization patterns associated with Appalachian coal mining.

PubMed

Hendryx, Michael; Ahern, Melissa M; Nurkiewicz, Timothy R

2007-12-01

The goal of this study was to test whether the volume of coal mining was related to population hospitalization risk for diseases postulated to be sensitive or insensitive to coal mining by-products. The study was a retrospective analysis of 2001 adult hospitalization data (n = 93,952) for West Virginia, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania, merged with county-level coal production figures. Hospitalization data were obtained from the Health Care Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample. Diagnoses postulated to be sensitive to coal mining by-product exposure were contrasted with diagnoses postulated to be insensitive to exposure. Data were analyzed using hierarchical nonlinear models, controlling for patient age, gender, insurance, comorbidities, hospital teaching status, county poverty, and county social capital. Controlling for covariates, the volume of coal mining was significantly related to hospitalization risk for two conditions postulated to be sensitive to exposure: hypertension and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The odds for a COPD hospitalization increased 1% for each 1462 tons of coal, and the odds for a hypertension hospitalization increased 1% for each 1873 tons of coal. Other conditions were not related to mining volume. Exposure to particulates or other pollutants generated by coal mining activities may be linked to increased risk of COPD and hypertension hospitalizations. Limitations in the data likely result in an underestimate of associations.

High-speed spectral nanocytology for early cancer screening

PubMed Central

Subramanian, Hariharan; Maneval, Charles D.; White, Craig A.; Levenson, Richard M.; Backman, Vadim

2013-01-01

Abstract. High-throughput partial wave spectroscopy (HTPWS) is introduced as a high-speed spectral nanocytology technique that utilizes the field effect of carcinogenesis to perform minimally invasive cancer screening on at-risk populations. HTPWS uses fully automated hardware and an acousto-optic tunable filter to scan slides at low magnification, to select cells, and to rapidly acquire spectra at each spatial pixel in a cell between 450 and 700 nm, completing measurements of 30 cells in 40 min. Statistical quantitative analysis on the size and density of intracellular nanostructures extracted from the spectra at each pixel in a cell yields the diagnostic biomarker, disorder strength (Ld). Linear correlation between Ld and the length scale of nanostructures was measured in phantoms with R2=0.93. Diagnostic sensitivity was demonstrated by measuring significantly higher Ld from a human colon cancer cell line (HT29 control vector) than a less aggressive variant (epidermal growth factor receptor knockdown). Clinical diagnostic performance for lung cancer screening was tested on 23 patients, yielding a significant difference in Ld between smokers and cancer patients, p=0.02 and effect size=1.00. The high-throughput performance, nanoscale sensitivity, and diagnostic sensitivity make HTPWS a potentially clinically relevant modality for risk stratification of the large populations at risk of developing cancer. PMID:24193949

Preterm delivery at low gestational age: risk factors for short latency. A multivariated analysis

PubMed Central

Marzano, Sara; Padula, Francesco; Meloni, Paolo; Anceschi, Maurizio Marco

2008-01-01

Objective The aim of this study is to identify the risk factors for a short latency in preterm delivery at low gestational ages (GA). Study design A retrospective analysis involving, between January 2004 and May 2006, 204 singleton pregnancies with admission diagnosis of preterm labor and, in particular, 91 pregnant women admitted between 24+0 and 31+6 weeks’ gestation. Results In pregnant women with a diagnosis of preterm labor at 24-31+6 weeks’ gestation, at ROC curve, a value of considering WBC and cervical dilatation, combined in the following formula (75.237 - (2.290 * “WBC”) - (10.787 * “cervical dilatation”)) <=33.101 has a 74.2% Sensitivity and a 78.3% Specificity in predicting a latency =< 4 days (+LR 3.42 and -LR 0.33) and a 70% Sensitivity and a 84.3% Specificity in predicting GA at delivery at 24-31 weeks’ gestation (+LR 4.46 and -LR 0.36). Conclusion We suggest a more strictly monitoring and a more aggressive therapy in presence of prognostic parameters of shorter latency. PMID:22439021

Ion spectrometric detection technologies for ultra-traces of explosives: a review.

PubMed

Mäkinen, Marko; Nousiainen, Marjaana; Sillanpää, Mika

2011-01-01

In recent years, explosive materials have been widely employed for various military applications and civilian conflicts; their use for hostile purposes has increased considerably. The detection of different kind of explosive agents has become crucially important for protection of human lives, infrastructures, and properties. Moreover, both the environmental aspects such as the risk of soil and water contamination and health risks related to the release of explosive particles need to be taken into account. For these reasons, there is a growing need to develop analyzing methods which are faster and more sensitive for detecting explosives. The detection techniques of the explosive materials should ideally serve fast real-time analysis in high accuracy and resolution from a minimal quantity of explosive without involving complicated sample preparation. The performance of the in-field analysis of extremely hazardous material has to be user-friendly and safe for operators. The two closely related ion spectrometric methods used in explosive analyses include mass spectrometry (MS) and ion mobility spectrometry (IMS). The four requirements-speed, selectivity, sensitivity, and sampling-are fulfilled with both of these methods. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Demonstration of a modelling-based multi-criteria decision analysis procedure for prioritisation of occupational risks from manufactured nanomaterials.

PubMed

Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Alstrup Jensen, Keld; Gottardo, Stefania; Isigonis, Panagiotis; Maccalman, Laura; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-11-01

Several tools to facilitate the risk assessment and management of manufactured nanomaterials (MN) have been developed. Most of them require input data on physicochemical properties, toxicity and scenario-specific exposure information. However, such data are yet not readily available, and tools that can handle data gaps in a structured way to ensure transparent risk analysis for industrial and regulatory decision making are needed. This paper proposes such a quantitative risk prioritisation tool, based on a multi-criteria decision analysis algorithm, which combines advanced exposure and dose-response modelling to calculate margins of exposure (MoE) for a number of MN in order to rank their occupational risks. We demonstrated the tool in a number of workplace exposure scenarios (ES) involving the production and handling of nanoscale titanium dioxide, zinc oxide (ZnO), silver and multi-walled carbon nanotubes. The results of this application demonstrated that bag/bin filling, manual un/loading and dumping of large amounts of dry powders led to high emissions, which resulted in high risk associated with these ES. The ZnO MN revealed considerable hazard potential in vivo, which significantly influenced the risk prioritisation results. In order to study how variations in the input data affect our results, we performed probabilistic Monte Carlo sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, which demonstrated that the performance of the proposed model is stable against changes in the exposure and hazard input variables.

Prognostic Validation of SKY92 and Its Combination With ISS in an Independent Cohort of Patients With Multiple Myeloma.

PubMed

van Beers, Erik H; van Vliet, Martin H; Kuiper, Rowan; de Best, Leonie; Anderson, Kenneth C; Chari, Ajai; Jagannath, Sundar; Jakubowiak, Andrzej; Kumar, Shaji K; Levy, Joan B; Auclair, Daniel; Lonial, Sagar; Reece, Donna; Richardson, Paul; Siegel, David S; Stewart, A Keith; Trudel, Suzanne; Vij, Ravi; Zimmerman, Todd M; Fonseca, Rafael

2017-09-01

High risk and low risk multiple myeloma patients follow a very different clinical course as reflected in their PFS and OS. To be clinically useful, methodologies used to identify high and low risk disease must be validated in representative independent clinical data and available so that patients can be managed appropriately. A recent analysis has indicated that SKY92 combined with the International Staging System (ISS) identifies patients with different risk disease with high sensitivity. Here we computed the performance of eight gene expression based classifiers SKY92, UAMS70, UAMS80, IFM15, Proliferation Index, Centrosome Index, Cancer Testis Antigen and HM19 as well as the combination of SKY92/ISS in an independent cohort of 91 newly diagnosed MM patients. The classifiers identified between 9%-21% of patients as high risk, with hazard ratios (HRs) between 1.9 and 8.2. Among the eight signatures, SKY92 identified the largest proportion of patients (21%) also with the highest HR (8.2). Our analysis also validated the combination SKY92/ISS for identification of three classes; low risk (42%), intermediate risk (37%) and high risk (21%). Between low risk and high risk classes the HR is >10. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association between high sensitivity C-reactive protein and dietary intake in Vietnamese young women.

PubMed

Ko, Ahra; Kim, Hyesook; Han, Chan-Jung; Kim, Ji-Myung; Chung, Hye-Won; Chang, Namsoo

2014-08-01

High sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) is a strong independent predictor of future cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We evaluated the relationship between hsCRP and dietary intake in apparently healthy young women living in southern Vietnam. Serum hsCRP was measured and dietary intake data were obtained using the 1-day 24-hour recall method in women (n = 956; mean age, 25.0 ± 5.7 years) who participated in the International Collaboration Study for the Construction of Asian Cohort of the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES) in 2011. Women in the high risk group (> 3 mg/L) consumed fewer fruits and vegetables, total plant food, potassium, and folate than those in the low risk group (< 1 mg/L). A multiple regression analysis after adjusting for covariates revealed a significant negative association between hsCRP and fruit and vegetable consumption. A logistic regression analysis showed that the odds ratio (OR) of having a high hsCRP level in women with the highest quartiles of consumption of fruits and vegetables [OR, 0.391; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.190-0.807], potassium [OR, 0.425; 95% CI, 0.192-0.939] and folate [OR, 0.490; 95% CI, 0.249-0.964] were significantly lower than those in the lowest quartiles. These results suggest that, in young Vietnamese women, an increased consumption of fruit and vegetables might be beneficial for serum hsCRP, a risk factor for future CVD events.

Competing Risk Analysis for Evaluation of Dalteparin Versus Unfractionated Heparin for Venous Thromboembolism in Medical-Surgical Critically Ill Patients.

PubMed

Li, Guowei; Cook, Deborah J; Levine, Mitchell A H; Guyatt, Gordon; Crowther, Mark; Heels-Ansdell, Diane; Holbrook, Anne; Lamontagne, Francois; Walter, Stephen D; Ferguson, Niall D; Finfer, Simon; Arabi, Yaseen M; Bellomo, Rinaldo; Cooper, D Jamie; Thabane, Lehana

2015-09-01

Failure to recognize the presence of competing risk or to account for it may result in misleading conclusions. We aimed to perform a competing risk analysis to assess the efficacy of the low molecular weight heparin dalteparin versus unfractionated heparin (UFH) in venous thromboembolism (VTE) in medical-surgical critically ill patients, taking death as a competing risk.This was a secondary analysis of a prospective randomized study of the Prophylaxis for Thromboembolism in Critical Care Trial (PROTECT) database. A total of 3746 medical-surgical critically ill patients from 67 intensive care units (ICUs) in 6 countries receiving either subcutaneous UFH 5000 IU twice daily (n = 1873) or dalteparin 5000 IU once daily plus once-daily placebo (n = 1873) were included for analysis.A total of 205 incident proximal leg deep vein thromboses (PLDVT) were reported during follow-up, among which 96 were in the dalteparin group and 109 were in the UFH group. No significant treatment effect of dalteparin on PLDVT compared with UFH was observed in either the competing risk analysis or standard survival analysis (also known as cause-specific analysis) using multivariable models adjusted for APACHE II score, history of VTE, need for vasopressors, and end-stage renal disease: sub-hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70-1.21, P-value = 0.56 for the competing risk analysis; hazard ratio (HR) = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.68-1.23, P-value = 0.57 for cause-specific analysis. Dalteparin was associated with a significant reduction in risk of pulmonary embolism (PE): SHR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.31-0.94, P-value = 0.02 for the competing risk analysis; HR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30-0.88, P-value = 0.01 for the cause-specific analysis. Two additional sensitivity analyses using the treatment variable as a time-dependent covariate and using as-treated and per-protocol approaches demonstrated similar findings.This competing risk analysis yields no significant treatment effect on PLDVT but a superior effect of dalteparin on PE compared with UFH in medical-surgical critically ill patients. The findings from the competing risk method are in accordance with results from the cause-specific analysis.clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00182143.

Competing Risk Analysis for Evaluation of Dalteparin Versus Unfractionated Heparin for Venous Thromboembolism in Medical-Surgical Critically Ill Patients

PubMed Central

Li, Guowei; Cook, Deborah J.; Levine, Mitchell A.H.; Guyatt, Gordon; Crowther, Mark; Heels-Ansdell, Diane; Holbrook, Anne; Lamontagne, Francois; Walter, Stephen D.; Ferguson, Niall D.; Finfer, Simon; Arabi, Yaseen M.; Bellomo, Rinaldo; Cooper, D. Jamie; Thabane, Lehana

2015-01-01

Abstract Failure to recognize the presence of competing risk or to account for it may result in misleading conclusions. We aimed to perform a competing risk analysis to assess the efficacy of the low molecular weight heparin dalteparin versus unfractionated heparin (UFH) in venous thromboembolism (VTE) in medical-surgical critically ill patients, taking death as a competing risk. This was a secondary analysis of a prospective randomized study of the Prophylaxis for Thromboembolism in Critical Care Trial (PROTECT) database. A total of 3746 medical-surgical critically ill patients from 67 intensive care units (ICUs) in 6 countries receiving either subcutaneous UFH 5000 IU twice daily (n = 1873) or dalteparin 5000 IU once daily plus once-daily placebo (n = 1873) were included for analysis. A total of 205 incident proximal leg deep vein thromboses (PLDVT) were reported during follow-up, among which 96 were in the dalteparin group and 109 were in the UFH group. No significant treatment effect of dalteparin on PLDVT compared with UFH was observed in either the competing risk analysis or standard survival analysis (also known as cause-specific analysis) using multivariable models adjusted for APACHE II score, history of VTE, need for vasopressors, and end-stage renal disease: sub-hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70–1.21, P-value = 0.56 for the competing risk analysis; hazard ratio (HR) = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.68–1.23, P-value = 0.57 for cause-specific analysis. Dalteparin was associated with a significant reduction in risk of pulmonary embolism (PE): SHR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.31–0.94, P-value = 0.02 for the competing risk analysis; HR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30–0.88, P-value = 0.01 for the cause-specific analysis. Two additional sensitivity analyses using the treatment variable as a time-dependent covariate and using as-treated and per-protocol approaches demonstrated similar findings. This competing risk analysis yields no significant treatment effect on PLDVT but a superior effect of dalteparin on PE compared with UFH in medical-surgical critically ill patients. The findings from the competing risk method are in accordance with results from the cause-specific analysis. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00182143 PMID:26356708

A highly sensitive method for analysis of 7-dehydrocholesterol for the study of Smith-Lemli-Opitz syndrome[S

PubMed Central

Liu, Wei; Xu, Libin; Lamberson, Connor; Haas, Dorothea; Korade, Zeljka; Porter, Ned A.

2014-01-01

We describe a highly sensitive method for the detection of 7-dehydrocholesterol (7-DHC), the biosynthetic precursor of cholesterol, based on its reactivity with 4-phenyl-1,2,4-triazoline-3,5-dione (PTAD) in a Diels-Alder cycloaddition reaction. Samples of biological tissues and fluids with added deuterium-labeled internal standards were derivatized with PTAD and analyzed by LC-MS. This protocol permits fast processing of samples, short chromatography times, and high sensitivity. We applied this method to the analysis of cells, blood, and tissues from several sources, including human plasma. Another innovative aspect of this study is that it provides a reliable and highly reproducible measurement of 7-DHC in 7-dehydrocholesterol reductase (Dhcr7)-HET mouse (a model for Smith-Lemli-Opitz syndrome) samples, showing regional differences in the brain tissue. We found that the levels of 7-DHC are consistently higher in Dhcr7-HET mice than in controls, with the spinal cord and peripheral nerve showing the biggest differences. In addition to 7-DHC, sensitive analysis of desmosterol in tissues and blood was also accomplished with this PTAD method by assaying adducts formed from the PTAD “ene” reaction. The method reported here may provide a highly sensitive and high throughput way to identify at-risk populations having errors in cholesterol biosynthesis. PMID:24259532

Anthropometrics at birth and risk of a primary central nervous system tumour: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Georgakis, Marios K; Kalogirou, Eleni I; Liaskas, Athanasios; Karalexi, Maria A; Papathoma, Paraskevi; Ladopoulou, Kyriaki; Kantzanou, Maria; Tsivgoulis, Georgios; Petridou, Eleni Th

2017-04-01

The aetiology of primary central nervous system (CNS) tumours remains largely unknown, but their childhood peak points to perinatal parameters as tentative risk factors. In this meta-analysis, we opted to quantitatively synthesise published evidence on the association between birth anthropometrics and risk of primary CNS tumour. Eligible studies were identified via systematic literature review; random-effects meta-analyses were conducted for the effect of birth weight and size-for-gestational-age on childhood and adult primary CNS tumours; subgroup, sensitivity, meta-regression and dose-response by birth weight category analyses were also performed. Forty-one articles, encompassing 53,167 CNS tumour cases, were eligible. Birth weight >4000 g was associated with increased risk of childhood CNS tumour (OR: 1.14, [1.08-1.20]; 22,330 cases). The risk was higher for astrocytoma (OR: 1.22, [1.13-1.31]; 7456 cases) and embryonal tumour (OR: 1.16, [1.04-1.29]; 3574 cases) and non-significant for ependymoma (OR: 1.12, [0.94-1.34]; 1374 cases). Increased odds for a CNS tumour were also noted among large-for-gestational-age children (OR: 1.12, [1.03-1.22]; 10,339 cases), whereas insufficient data for synthesis were identified for other birth anthropometrics. The findings remained robust across subgroup and sensitivity analyses controlling for several sources of bias, whereas no significant heterogeneity or publication bias were documented. The limited available evidence on adults (4 studies) did not reveal significant associations between increasing birth weight (500-g increment) and overall risk CNS tumour (OR: 0.99, [0.98-1.00]; 1091 cases) or glioma (OR: 1.03, [0.98-1.07]; 2052 cases). This meta-analysis confirms a sizeable association of high birth weight, with childhood CNS tumour risk, particularly astrocytoma and embryonal tumour, which seems to be independent of gestational age. Further research is needed to explore underlying mechanisms, especially modifiable determinants of infant macrosomia, such as gestational diabetes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is a HIV vaccine a viable option and at what price? An economic evaluation of adding HIV vaccination into existing prevention programs in Thailand.

PubMed

Leelahavarong, Pattara; Teerawattananon, Yot; Werayingyong, Pitsaphun; Akaleephan, Chutima; Premsri, Nakorn; Namwat, Chawetsan; Peerapatanapokin, Wiwat; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

2011-07-05

This study aims to determine the maximum price at which HIV vaccination is cost-effective in the Thai healthcare setting. It also aims to identify the relative importance of vaccine characteristics and risk behavior changes among vaccine recipients to determine how they affect this cost-effectiveness. A semi-Markov model was developed to estimate the costs and health outcomes of HIV prevention programs combined with HIV vaccination in comparison to the existing HIV prevention programs without vaccination. The estimation was based on a lifetime horizon period (99 years) and used the government perspective. The analysis focused on both the general population and specific high-risk population groups. The maximum price of cost-effective vaccination was defined by using threshold analysis; one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The study employed an expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis to determine the relative importance of parameters and to prioritize future studies. The most expensive HIV vaccination which is cost-effective when given to the general population was 12,000 Thai baht (US$1 = 34 Thai baht in 2009). This vaccination came with 70% vaccine efficacy and lifetime protection as long as risk behavior was unchanged post-vaccination. The vaccine would be considered cost-ineffective at any price if it demonstrated low efficacy (30%) and if post-vaccination risk behavior increased by 10% or more, especially among the high-risk population groups. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were the most sensitive to change in post-vaccination risk behavior, followed by vaccine efficacy and duration of protection. The EVPI indicated the need to quantify vaccine efficacy, changed post-vaccination risk behavior, and the costs of vaccination programs. The approach used in this study differentiated it from other economic evaluations and can be applied for the economic evaluation of other health interventions not available in healthcare systems. This study is important not only for researchers conducting future HIV vaccine research but also for policy decision makers who, in the future, will consider vaccine adoption.

Tea consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis update

PubMed Central

Yang, Jian; Mao, Qun-Xia; Xu, Hong-Xia; Ma, Xu; Zeng, Chun-Yu

2014-01-01

Objective Tea has been suggested to decrease blood glucose levels and protect pancreatic β cells in diabetic mice. However, human epidemiological studies showed inconsistent results for the association between tea consumption and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis to further explore the association between tea consumption and incidence of T2DM. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods We performed a systematic literature search up to 30 August 2013 in PubMed, EMBASE, Chinese Wanfang Database and CNKI database. Pooling relative risks (RRs) were estimated by random-effect models. Two kinds of subgroup analyses (according to sex and regions) were performed. Sensitive analyses were performed according to types of tea. Results Overall, no statistically significant relationship between tea consumption and risk of T2DM was found based on 12 eligible studies (pooling RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.03). Compared with the lowest/non-tea group, daily tea consumption (≥3 cups/day) was associated with a lower T2DM risk (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.97). Subgroup analyses showed a difference between men and women. Overall, the RRs (95% CI) were 0.92 (0.84 to 1.00) for men, and 1.00 (0.96 to 1.05) for women, respectively. Tea consumption of ≥3 cups/day was associated with decreased T2DM risk in women (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.00). Overall, the RRs (95% CIs) were 0.84 (0.71 to 1.00) for Asians, and 1.00 (0.97 to 1.04) for Americans and Europeans, respectively. No obvious change was found in sensitivity analyses. Conclusions The results suggest that daily tea consumption (≥3 cups/day) is associated with a lower T2DM risk. However, further studies are needed to enrich related evidence, especially with regard to types of tea or sex. PMID:25052177

Behavioral economics and regulatory analysis.

PubMed

Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K

2011-09-01

Behavioral economics has captured the interest of scholars and the general public by demonstrating ways in which individuals make decisions that appear irrational. While increasing attention is being focused on the implications of this research for the design of risk-reducing policies, less attention has been paid to how it affects the economic valuation of policy consequences. This article considers the latter issue, reviewing the behavioral economics literature and discussing its implications for the conduct of benefit-cost analysis, particularly in the context of environmental, health, and safety regulations. We explore three concerns: using estimates of willingness to pay or willingness to accept compensation for valuation, considering the psychological aspects of risk when valuing mortality-risk reductions, and discounting future consequences. In each case, we take the perspective that analysts should avoid making judgments about whether values are "rational" or "irrational." Instead, they should make every effort to rely on well-designed studies, using ranges, sensitivity analysis, or probabilistic modeling to reflect uncertainty. More generally, behavioral research has led some to argue for a more paternalistic approach to policy analysis. We argue instead for continued focus on describing the preferences of those affected, while working to ensure that these preferences are based on knowledge and careful reflection. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Pru p 3, a marker allergen for lipid transfer protein sensitization also in Central Europe.

PubMed

Mothes-Luksch, N; Raith, M; Stingl, G; Focke-Tejkl, M; Razzazi-Fazeli, E; Zieglmayer, R; Wöhrl, S; Swoboda, I

2017-09-01

In the Mediterranean area, lipid transfer proteins (LTPs) are important causes of plant-food allergies often associated with severe allergic reactions. There, peach LTP (Pru p 3) seems to be the primary sensitizer, whereas in Central Europe, little is known about the importance of LTP sensitization. In this region, allergen extract-based diagnosis is often complicated by co-sensitization to Bet v 1, the major birch pollen allergen, its cross-reactive food allergens, and profilins. We investigated the role of LTP sensitization in Central European patients displaying strong allergic reactions to plant-derived food. Analysis of IgE reactivity revealed that ten of thirteen patients were sensitized to Pru p 3, nine to Bet v 1, and two to profilin. Our results showed that LTP sensitization represents a risk factor for severe allergic symptoms in Central Europe. Furthermore, the strong IgE reactivity detected in immunoblots of plant-food extracts indicated that Pru p 3 can be used as a marker allergen for LTP sensitization also in Central European patients. © 2017 The Authors Allergy Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Interbank lending, network structure and default risk contagion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Minghui; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei

2018-03-01

This paper studies the default risk contagion in banking systems based on a dynamic network model with two different kinds of lenders' selecting mechanisms, namely, endogenous selecting (ES) and random selecting (RS). From sensitivity analysis, we find that higher risk premium, lower initial proportion of net assets, higher liquid assets threshold, larger size of liquidity shocks, higher proportion of the initial investments and higher Central Bank interest rates all lead to severer default risk contagion. Moreover, the autocorrelation of deposits and lenders' selecting probability have non-monotonic effects on the default risk contagion, and the effects differ under two mechanisms. Generally, the default risk contagion is much severer under RS mechanism than that of ES, because the multi-money-center structure generated by ES mechanism enables borrowers to borrow from more liquid banks with lower interest rates.

The impact of vehicle on the relative potency of skin-sensitizing chemicals in the local lymph node assay.

PubMed

Jowsey, Ian R; Clapp, Catherine J; Safford, Bob; Gibbons, Ben T; Basketter, David A

2008-01-01

The identification and characterization of chemicals that possess skin-sensitizing potential are typically performed using predictive tests. However, human exposure to skin-sensitizing chemicals often occurs via a matrix (vehicle) that differs from that used in these tests. It is thus important to account for the potential impact of vehicle differences when undertaking quantitative risk assessment for skin sensitization. This is achieved through the application of a specific sensitization assessment factor (SAF), scaled between 1 and 10, when identifying an acceptable exposure level. The objective of the analysis described herein is to determine the impact of vehicle differences on local lymph node assay (LLNA) EC3 values (concentrations of test chemical required to provoke a 3-fold increase in lymph node cell proliferation). Initially, the inherent variability of the LLNA was investigated by examining the reproducibility of EC3 values for 14 chemicals that have been tested more than once in the same vehicle (4:1 acetone:olive oil, AOO). This analysis reveals that the variability in EC3 value for these chemicals following multiple assessments is <5-fold. Next, data from the literature and previously unpublished studies were compiled for 18 chemicals that had been assessed in the LLNA using at least 2 of 15 different vehicles. These data demonstrate that often the variability in EC3 values observed for a given chemical in different vehicles is no greater than the 5-fold inherent variability observed when assessing a chemical in the same vehicle on multiple occasions. However, there are examples where EC3 values for a chemical differ by a factor of more than 10 between different vehicles. These observations were often associated with an apparent underestimation of potency (higher EC3 values) with predominantly aqueous vehicles or propylene glycol. These data underscore the need to consider vehicle effects in the context of skin-sensitization risk assessments.

Sagittal Plane Hip, Knee, and Ankle Biomechanics and the Risk of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Leppänen, Mari; Pasanen, Kati; Krosshaug, Tron; Kannus, Pekka; Vasankari, Tommi; Kujala, Urho M.; Bahr, Roald; Perttunen, Jarmo; Parkkari, Jari

2017-01-01

Background: Stiff landings with less knee flexion and high vertical ground-reaction forces have been shown to be associated with an increased risk of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. The literature on the association between other sagittal plane measures and the risk of ACL injuries with a prospective study design is lacking. Purpose: To investigate the relationship between selected sagittal plane hip, knee, and ankle biomechanics and the risk of ACL injury in young female team-sport athletes. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 171 female basketball and floorball athletes (age range, 12-21 years) participated in a vertical drop jump test using 3-dimensional motion analysis. All new ACL injuries, as well as match and training exposure data, were recorded for 1 to 3 years. Biomechanical variables, including hip and ankle flexion at initial contact (IC), hip and ankle ranges of motion (ROMs), and peak external knee and hip flexion moments, were selected for analysis. Cox regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. The combined sensitivity and specificity of significant test variables were assessed using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: A total of 15 noncontact ACL injuries were recorded during follow-up (0.2 injuries/1000 player-hours). Of the variables investigated, landing with less hip flexion ROM (HR for each 10° increase in hip ROM, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.38-0.99]; P < .05) and a greater knee flexion moment (HR for each 10-N·m increase in knee moment, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.04-1.40]; P = .01) was significantly associated with an increased risk of ACL injury. Hip flexion at IC, ankle flexion at IC, ankle flexion ROM, and peak external hip flexion moment were not significantly associated with the risk of ACL injury. ROC curve analysis for significant variables showed an area under the curve of 0.6, indicating a poor combined sensitivity and specificity of the test. Conclusion: Landing with less hip flexion ROM and a greater peak external knee flexion moment was associated with an increased risk of ACL injury in young female team-sport players. Studies with larger populations are needed to confirm these findings and to determine the role of ankle flexion ROM as a risk factor for ACL injury. Increasing knee and hip flexion ROMs to produce soft landings might reduce knee loading and risk of ACL injury in young female athletes. PMID:29318174

Does a triplet birth pose a special risk for infant development? Assessing cognitive development in relation to intrauterine growth and mother-infant interaction across the first 2 years.

PubMed

Feldman, Ruth; Eidelman, Arthur I

2005-02-01

To examine whether a triplet birth per se poses a risk to the development of infants' cognitive competencies and to the mother-infant relationship. Twenty-three sets of triplets were matched with 23 sets of twins and 23 singleton infants (n = 138) with respect to gestational age, birth weight, and medical and demographic features. Infants with perinatal asphyxia, intraventricular hemorrhage of grade 3 or 4, periventricular leukomalacia, or central nervous system infection were excluded from the study. At 6, 12, and 24 months of age, mother-infant interaction was observed and infants' cognitive development was tested with the Bayley II test. Mothers of triplets displayed lower levels of sensitivity at 6, 12, and 24 months and infants were less socially involved at 6 and 24 months, compared with singletons and twins. Triplets scored lower than singletons and twins on the Bayley Mental Developmental Index at 6, 12, and 24 months. A weight discordance of >15% was found for 15 triplet sets (65.2%). The discordant triplets showed decreased cognitive skills at 12 and 24 months, compared with their siblings, and received the lowest scores for maternal sensitivity. Hierarchical multivariate regression analysis revealed that greater medical risk at birth, multiple-birth status, lower maternal sensitivity, and reduced infant social involvement in the first 2 years were each predictive of lower cognitive outcomes at 2 years (R2 = 0.33). Triplets appear to be at higher risk for cognitive delays in the first 2 years of life, and discordant infants are at especially high risk. This delay is related in part to the difficulty of providing sensitive mothering to 3 infants at the same time. The findings may assist practitioners in guiding prenatal and postpartum parental care and management.

Association between the MTHFR A1298C polymorphism and risk of cancer: evidence from 265 case-control studies.

PubMed

Zhu, Xin-Li; Liu, Zhi-Zhong; Yan, Sen-Xiang; Wang, Wei; Chang, Rui-Xia; Zhang, Chun-Yan; Guo, Yan

2016-02-01

Many molecular, epidemiological studies have been performed to explore the association between MTHFR A1298C polymorphism and cancer risk. However, the results were inconsistent or even contradictory. Hence, we performed a meta-analysis to investigate the association between cancer risk and MTHFR A1298C (81,040 cases and 114,975 controls from 265 studies) polymorphism. Overall, significant association was observed between MTHFR A1298C polymorphism and cancer risk when all eligible studies were pooled into the meta-analysis. In further stratified and sensitivity analyses, significantly increased cervical cancer (dominant model: OR 1.46, 95 % CI 1.13-1.90; AC vs. AA: OR 1.48, 95 % CI 1.13-1.92) and lymphoma (dominant model: OR 1.22, 95 % CI 1.04-1.44; recessive model: OR 1.66, 95 % CI 1.15-2.39; CC vs. AA: OR 1.75, 95 % CI 1.21-2.53) risk were observed in Asians, and significantly decreased colorectal cancer risk was found in Asians (recessive model: OR 0.75, 95 % CI 0.59-0.96; CC vs. AA: OR 0.77, 95 % CI 0.60-1.00). In summary, this meta-analysis suggests that MTHFR A1298C polymorphism is associated with increased cervical cancer and lymphoma risk in Asians, and MTHFR A1298C polymorphism is associated with decreased colorectal cancer risk in Asians. Moreover, this meta-analysis also points out the importance of new studies, such as oral cancer and chronic myeloid leukemia, because they had high heterogeneity in this meta-analysis (I (2) > 75 %).

Anxiety sensitivity class membership moderates the effects of pre-quit reduction in anxiety sensitivity on quit-day tobacco craving.

PubMed

Bakhshaie, Jafar; Zvolensky, Michael J; Langdon, Kirsten J; Leventhal, Adam M; Smits, Jasper A J; Allan, Nicholas; Schmidt, Norman B

2016-04-01

Although anxiety sensitivity has been primarily conceptualized as a dimensional latent construct, empirical evidence suggests that it also maintains a latent class structure, reflecting low-, moderate-, and high-risk underlying classes. The present study sought to explore whether these anxiety sensitivity classes moderated the relations between the degree of pre-quit reductions in anxiety sensitivity and the severity of nicotine withdrawal symptoms and craving experienced on quit-day. Participants included 195 adult smokers (47% female; Mage=39.4) participating in a larger "anxiety sensitivity reduction-smoking cessation" intervention trial. Anxiety sensitivity class significantly moderated relations between pre-quit reduction in anxiety sensitivity and quit-day craving. Specifically, smokers within the anxiety sensitivity high-risk class, who also demonstrated lesser pre-quit reductions in anxiety sensitivity, experienced the highest levels of craving on quit-day. These findings highlight the importance of 'high-risk' classes of anxiety sensitivity to better understand the experience of craving on quit day. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Predictive genetic testing for the identification of high-risk groups: a simulation study on the impact of predictive ability

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Genetic risk models could potentially be useful in identifying high-risk groups for the prevention of complex diseases. We investigated the performance of this risk stratification strategy by examining epidemiological parameters that impact the predictive ability of risk models. Methods We assessed sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value for all possible risk thresholds that can define high-risk groups and investigated how these measures depend on the frequency of disease in the population, the frequency of the high-risk group, and the discriminative accuracy of the risk model, as assessed by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). In a simulation study, we modeled genetic risk scores of 50 genes with equal odds ratios and genotype frequencies, and varied the odds ratios and the disease frequency across scenarios. We also performed a simulation of age-related macular degeneration risk prediction based on published odds ratios and frequencies for six genetic risk variants. Results We show that when the frequency of the high-risk group was lower than the disease frequency, positive predictive value increased with the AUC but sensitivity remained low. When the frequency of the high-risk group was higher than the disease frequency, sensitivity was high but positive predictive value remained low. When both frequencies were equal, both positive predictive value and sensitivity increased with increasing AUC, but higher AUC was needed to maximize both measures. Conclusions The performance of risk stratification is strongly determined by the frequency of the high-risk group relative to the frequency of disease in the population. The identification of high-risk groups with appreciable combinations of sensitivity and positive predictive value requires higher AUC. PMID:21797996

Systems engineering and integration: Cost estimation and benefits analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, ED; Fridge, Ernie; Hamaker, Joe

1990-01-01

Space Transportation Avionics hardware and software cost has traditionally been estimated in Phase A and B using cost techniques which predict cost as a function of various cost predictive variables such as weight, lines of code, functions to be performed, quantities of test hardware, quantities of flight hardware, design and development heritage, complexity, etc. The output of such analyses has been life cycle costs, economic benefits and related data. The major objectives of Cost Estimation and Benefits analysis are twofold: (1) to play a role in the evaluation of potential new space transportation avionics technologies, and (2) to benefit from emerging technological innovations. Both aspects of cost estimation and technology are discussed here. The role of cost analysis in the evaluation of potential technologies should be one of offering additional quantitative and qualitative information to aid decision-making. The cost analyses process needs to be fully integrated into the design process in such a way that cost trades, optimizations and sensitivities are understood. Current hardware cost models tend to primarily use weights, functional specifications, quantities, design heritage and complexity as metrics to predict cost. Software models mostly use functionality, volume of code, heritage and complexity as cost descriptive variables. Basic research needs to be initiated to develop metrics more responsive to the trades which are required for future launch vehicle avionics systems. These would include cost estimating capabilities that are sensitive to technological innovations such as improved materials and fabrication processes, computer aided design and manufacturing, self checkout and many others. In addition to basic cost estimating improvements, the process must be sensitive to the fact that no cost estimate can be quoted without also quoting a confidence associated with the estimate. In order to achieve this, better cost risk evaluation techniques are needed as well as improved usage of risk data by decision-makers. More and better ways to display and communicate cost and cost risk to management are required.

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential usefulness of quantifying model uncertainty as sensitivity analysis in the PRA model.

The cost effectiveness of radon mitigation in existing German dwellings--a decision theoretic analysis.

PubMed

Haucke, Florian

2010-11-01

Radon is a naturally occurring inert radioactive gas found in soils and rocks that can accumulate in dwellings, and is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer. This study aims to analyze the cost effectiveness of different intervention strategies to reduce radon concentrations in existing German dwellings. The cost effectiveness analysis (CEA) was conducted as a scenario analysis, where each scenario represents a specific regulatory regime. A decision theoretic model was developed, which reflects accepted recommendations for radon screening and mitigation and uses most up-to-date data on radon distribution and relative risks. The model was programmed to account for compliance with respect to the single steps of radon intervention, as well as data on the sensitivity/specificity of radon tests. A societal perspective was adopted to calculate costs and effects. All scenarios were calculated for different action levels. Cost effectiveness was measured in costs per averted case of lung cancer, costs per life year gained and costs per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Univariate and multivariate deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (SA) were performed. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were based on Monte Carlo simulations with 5000 model runs. The results show that legal regulations with mandatory screening and mitigation for indoor radon levels >100 Bq/m(3) are most cost effective. Incremental cost effectiveness compared to the no mitigation base case is 25,181 euro (95% CI: 7371 euro-90,593 euro) per QALY gained. Other intervention strategies focussing primarily on the personal responsibility for screening and/or mitigative actions show considerably worse cost effectiveness ratios. However, targeting radon intervention to radon-prone areas is significantly more cost effective. Most of the uncertainty that surrounds the results can be ascribed to the relative risk of radon exposure. It can be concluded that in the light of international experience a legal regulation requiring radon screening and, if necessary, mitigation is justifiable under the terms of CEA. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-invasive risk assessment of fetal sex chromosome aneuploidy through directed analysis and incorporation of fetal fraction.

PubMed

Hooks, J; Wolfberg, A J; Wang, E T; Struble, C A; Zahn, J; Juneau, K; Mohseni, M; Huang, S; Bogard, P; Song, K; Oliphant, A; Musci, T J

2014-05-01

To assess the performance of a directed chromosomal analysis approach in the prenatal evaluation of fetal sex chromosome aneuploidy. We analyzed 432 frozen maternal plasma samples obtained from patients prior to undergoing fetal diagnostic testing. The cohort included women greater than 18 years of age with a singleton pregnancy of greater than 10 weeks gestation. Samples were analyzed using a chromosome-selective approach (DANSR(TM) ) and a risk algorithm that incorporates fetal fraction (FORTE(TM) ). The cohort included 34 cases of sex chromosome aneuploidy. The assay correctly identified 26 of 27 (92.6%) cases of Monosomy X, one case of XXX, and all six cases of XXY. There were four false positive cases of sex chromosome aneuploidy among 380 euploid cases for an overall false positive rate of less than 1%. Analysis of the risk for sex chromosome aneuploidies can be accomplished with a targeted assay with high sensitivity. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Association between methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase polymorphisms and the relapse of acute lymphoblastic leukemia: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

He, H-R; Chen, S-Y; You, H-S; Hu, S-S; Sun, J-Y; Dong, Y-L; Lu, J

2014-10-01

Relapse is a threat in patients treated for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) activity may affect the sensitivity of patients to folate-based chemotherapeutic drugs, thus influencing the relapse risk. Two polymorphisms of the gene encoding MTHFR, C677T and A1298C, alter MTHFR enzyme activity and may be associated with ALL relapse. The aim of this meta-analysis was to clarify the correlation between the C677T and A1298C polymorphisms and ALL relapse. To this end, data were collected from studies of the association between these two polymorphisms and ALL relapse. Analysis of the data revealed a serious contradiction among the results. A recessive model demonstrated that the ALL relapse risk was significantly increased in carriers of the 677 TT genotype, especially for pediatric ALL, but was unaffected by the A1298C polymorphism. These findings confirm that the MTHFR C677T polymorphism could be considered as a good marker of the pediatric ALL relapse risk.

Age-Related Differences in Susceptibility to Carcinogenesis. II. Approaches for Application and Uncertainty Analyses for Individual Genetically Acting Carcinogens

PubMed Central

Hattis, Dale; Goble, Robert; Chu, Margaret

2005-01-01

In an earlier report we developed a quantitative likelihood-based analysis of the differences in sensitivity of rodents to mutagenic carcinogens across three life stages (fetal, birth to weaning, and weaning to 60 days) relative to exposures in adult life. Here we draw implications for assessing human risks for full lifetime exposures, taking into account three types of uncertainties in making projections from the rodent data: uncertainty in the central estimates of the life-stage–specific sensitivity factors estimated earlier, uncertainty from chemical-to-chemical differences in life-stage–specific sensitivities for carcinogenesis, and uncertainty in the mapping of rodent life stages to human ages/exposure periods. Among the uncertainties analyzed, the mapping of rodent life stages to human ages/exposure periods is most important quantitatively (a range of several-fold in estimates of the duration of the human equivalent of the highest sensitivity “birth to weaning” period in rodents). The combined effects of these uncertainties are estimated with Monte Carlo analyses. Overall, the estimated population arithmetic mean risk from lifetime exposures at a constant milligrams per kilogram body weight level to a generic mutagenic carcinogen is about 2.8-fold larger than expected from adult-only exposure with 5–95% confidence limits of 1.5-to 6-fold. The mean estimates for the 0- to 2-year and 2- to 15-year periods are about 35–55% larger than the 10- and 3-fold sensitivity factor adjustments recently proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The present results are based on data for only nine chemicals, including five mutagens. Risk inferences will be altered as data become available for other chemicals. PMID:15811844

Childhood trauma as a risk factor for the onset of subclinical psychotic experiences: Exploring the mediating effect of stress sensitivity in a cross-sectional epidemiological community study.

PubMed

Rössler, Wulf; Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; Rodgers, Stephanie; Haker, Helene; Müller, Mario

2016-04-01

Childhood trauma is a risk factor for the onset of schizophrenic psychosis. Because the psychosis phenotype can be described as a continuum with varying levels of severity and persistence, childhood trauma might likewise increase the risk for psychotic experiences below the diagnostic threshold. But the impact of stressful experiences depends upon its subjective appraisal. Therefore, varying degrees of stress sensitivity possibly mediate how childhood trauma impacts in the end upon the occurrence of subclinical psychotic experiences. We investigated this research question in a representative community cohort of 1500 participants. A questionnaire, comprising five domains of physical and emotional neglect, as well as physical, emotional, and sexual abuse, was used to assess childhood trauma. Based on different symptoms of subclinical psychotic experiences, we conducted a latent profile analysis (LPA) to derive distinct profiles for such experiences. Path modeling was performed to identify the direct and indirect (via stress sensitivity) pathways from childhood trauma to subclinical psychotic experiences. The LPA revealed four classes - unaffected, anomalous perceptions, odd beliefs and behavior, and combined anomalous perceptions/odd beliefs and behavior, that - except for sexual abuse - were all linked to childhood trauma. Moreover, except for physical abuse, childhood trauma was significantly associated with stress sensitivity. Thus, our results revealed that the pathways from emotional neglect/abuse and physical neglect to subclinical psychotic experiences were mediated by stress sensitivity. In conclusion, we can state that subclinical psychotic experiences are affected by childhood traumatic experiences in particular through the pathway of a heightened subjective stress appraisal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cytogenetic Biodosimetry Using the Blood Lymphocytes of Astronauts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

George, Kerry; Rhone, J.; Chappell, L. J.; Cucinotta, F. A.

2010-01-01

Cytogenetic analysis of blood lymphocytes remains the most sensitive and reliable method available for in vivo assessment of the biological effects of exposure to radiation and provides the most informative measurement of radiation induced health risks. To date chromosome damage has been assessed in lymphocytes from more than 30 astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of three months or more on board the International Space Station. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome damage measured within a month of return from space was higher than their prefight yield and biodosimetry estimates lie within the range expected from physical dosimetry. Biodosimetry data provides a direct measurement of space radiation damage, which takes into account individual radiosensitivity in the presence of confounding factors such as microgravity and other stress conditions. In contrast to physical measurements, which are external to body and require multiple devices to detect all radiation types all of which have poor sensitivity to neutrons, biodosimetry is internal and includes the effects of shielding provided by the body itself plus chromosome damage shows excellent sensitivity to protons, heavy ions, and neutrons. In addition, chromosome damage is reflective of cancer risk and biodosimetry values can therefore be used to validate and develop risk assessment models that can be used to characterize excess health risk incurred by crewmembers. A review of astronaut biodosimetry data will be presented along with recent findings on the persistence of space radiation induced chromosome damage and the cytogenetic effects of repeat long duration missions

Groundwater contamination from waste management sites: The interaction between risk-based engineering design and regulatory policy: 2. Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massmann, Joel; Freeze, R. Allan

1987-02-01

The risk-cost-benefit analysis developed in the companion paper (J. Massmann and R. A. Freeze, this issue) is here applied to (1) an assessment of the relative worth of containment-construction activities, site-exploration activities, and monitoring activities as components of a design strategy for the owner/operator of a waste management facility; (2) an assessment of alternative policy options available to a regulatory agency; and (3) a case history. Sensitivity analyses designed to address the first issue show that the allocation of resources by the owner/operator is sensitive to the stochastic parameters used to describe the hydraulic conductivity field at a site. For the cases analyzed, the installation of a dense monitoring network is of less value to the owner/operator than a more conservative containment design. Sensitivity analyses designed to address the second issue suggest that from a regulatory perspective, design standards should be more effective than performance standards in reducing risk, and design specifications on the containment structure should be more effective than those on the monitoring network. Performance bonds posted before construction have a greater potential to influence design than prospective penalties to be imposed at the time of failure. Siting on low-conductivity deposits is a more effective method of risk reduction than any form of regulatory influence. Results of the case history indicate that the methodology can be successfully applied at field sites.

Predictors of Maternal Sensitivity in At-Risk Families

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neuhauser, Alex

2018-01-01

Maternal sensitivity is of central importance to a child's healthy development. This study examines how different types of psychosocial stress originating from the child, the parents, the context, and overall stress relate to maternal sensitivity. Psychosocial stress and its impact on maternal sensitivity are assessed in an at-risk sample of 248…

The social value of mortality risk reduction: VSL versus the social welfare function approach.

PubMed

Adler, Matthew D; Hammitt, James K; Treich, Nicolas

2014-05-01

We examine how different welfarist frameworks evaluate the social value of mortality risk reduction. These frameworks include classical, distributively unweighted cost-benefit analysis--i.e., the "value per statistical life" (VSL) approach-and various social welfare functions (SWFs). The SWFs are either utilitarian or prioritarian, applied to policy choice under risk in either an "ex post" or "ex ante" manner. We examine the conditions on individual utility and on the SWF under which these frameworks display sensitivity to wealth and to baseline risk. Moreover, we discuss whether these frameworks satisfy related properties that have received some attention in the literature, namely equal value of risk reduction, preference for risk equity, and catastrophe aversion. We show that the particular manner in which VSL ranks risk-reduction measures is not necessarily shared by other welfarist frameworks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Preemptive use of etodolac on tooth sensitivity after in-office bleaching: a randomized clinical trial

PubMed Central

Vaez, Savil Costa; Faria-e-Silva, André Luís; Loguércio, Alessandro Dourado; Fernandes, Micaelle Tenório Guedes; Nahsan, Flávia Pardo Salata

2018-01-01

Abstract Purpose This study determined the effectiveness of the preemptive administration of etodolac on risk and intensity of tooth sensitivity and the bleaching effect caused by in-office bleaching using 35% hydrogen peroxide. Material and methods Fifty patients were selected for this tripleblind, randomized, crossover, and placebo-controlled clinical trial. Etodolac (400 mg) or placebo was administrated in a single-dose 1 hour prior to the bleaching procedure. The whitening treatment with 35% hydrogen peroxide was carried out in two sessions with a 7-day interval. Tooth sensitivity was assessed before, during, and 24 hours after the procedure using the analog visual scale and the verbal rating scale. Color alteration was assessed by a bleach guide scale, 7 days after each session. Relative risk of sensitivity was calculated and adjusted by session, while overall risk was compared by the McNemar's test. Data on the sensitivity level of both scales and color shade were subjected to Friedman, Wilcoxon, and Mann-Whitney tests, respectively (α=0.05). Results The preemptive administration of etodolac did not affect the risk of tooth sensitivity and the level of sensitivity reported, regardless of the time of evaluation and scale used. The sequence of treatment allocation did not affect bleaching effectiveness, while the second session resulted in additional color modification. The preemptive administration of etodolac in a single dose 1 hour prior to in-office tooth bleaching did not alter tooth color, and the risk and intensity of tooth sensitivity reported by patients. Conclusion A single-dose preemptive administration of 400 mg of etodolac did not affect either risk of tooth sensitivity or level of sensitivity reported by patients, during or after the in-office tooth bleaching procedure. PMID:29412363

Preemptive use of etodolac on tooth sensitivity after in-office bleaching: a randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Vaez, Savil Costa; Faria-E-Silva, André Luís; Loguércio, Alessandro Dourado; Fernandes, Micaelle Tenório Guedes; Nahsan, Flávia Pardo Salata

2018-02-01

This study determined the effectiveness of the preemptive administration of etodolac on risk and intensity of tooth sensitivity and the bleaching effect caused by in-office bleaching using 35% hydrogen peroxide. Fifty patients were selected for this tripleblind, randomized, crossover, and placebo-controlled clinical trial. Etodolac (400 mg) or placebo was administrated in a single-dose 1 hour prior to the bleaching procedure. The whitening treatment with 35% hydrogen peroxide was carried out in two sessions with a 7-day interval. Tooth sensitivity was assessed before, during, and 24 hours after the procedure using the analog visual scale and the verbal rating scale. Color alteration was assessed by a bleach guide scale, 7 days after each session. Relative risk of sensitivity was calculated and adjusted by session, while overall risk was compared by the McNemar's test. Data on the sensitivity level of both scales and color shade were subjected to Friedman, Wilcoxon, and Mann-Whitney tests, respectively (α=0.05). The preemptive administration of etodolac did not affect the risk of tooth sensitivity and the level of sensitivity reported, regardless of the time of evaluation and scale used. The sequence of treatment allocation did not affect bleaching effectiveness, while the second session resulted in additional color modification. The preemptive administration of etodolac in a single dose 1 hour prior to in-office tooth bleaching did not alter tooth color, and the risk and intensity of tooth sensitivity reported by patients. A single-dose preemptive administration of 400 mg of etodolac did not affect either risk of tooth sensitivity or level of sensitivity reported by patients, during or after the in-office tooth bleaching procedure.

Robust Adaptation? Assessing the sensitivity of safety margins in flood defences to uncertainty in future simulations - a case study from Ireland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Conor; Bastola, Satish; Sweeney, John

2013-04-01

Climate change impact and adaptation assessments have traditionally adopted a 'top-down' scenario based approach, where information from different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and emission scenarios are employed to develop impacts led adaptation strategies. Due to the tradeoffs in the computational cost and need to include a wide range of GCMs for fuller characterization of uncertainties, scenarios are better used for sensitivity testing and adaptation options appraisal. One common approach to adaptation that has been defined as robust is the use of safety margins. In this work the sensitivity of safety margins that have been adopted by the agency responsible for flood risk management in Ireland, to the uncertainty in future projections are examined. The sensitivity of fluvial flood risk to climate change is assessed for four Irish catchments using a large number of GCMs (17) forced with three emissions scenarios (SRES A1B, A2, B1) as input to four hydrological models. Both uncertainty within and between hydrological models is assessed using the GLUE framework. Regionalisation is achieved using a change factor method to infer changes in the parameters of a weather generator using monthly output from the GCMs, while flood frequency analysis is conducted using the method of probability weighted moments to fit the Generalised Extreme Value distribution to ~20,000 annual maxima series. The sensitivity of design margins to the uncertainty space considered is visualised using risk response surfaces. The hydrological sensitivity is measured as the percentage change in flood peak for specified recurrence intervals. Results indicate that there is a considerable residual risk associated with allowances of +20% when uncertainties are accounted for and that the risk of exceedence of design allowances is greatest for more extreme, low frequency events with considerable implication for critical infrastructure, e.g., culverts, bridges, flood defences whose designs are normally associated with such return periods. Sensitivity results show that the impact of climate change is not as great for flood peaks with higher return periods. The average width of the uncertainty range and the size of the range for each catchment reveals that the uncertainties in low frequency events are greater than high frequency events. In addition, the uncertainty interval, estimated as the average width of the uncertainty range of flow for the five return periods, grows wider with a decrease in the runoff coefficient and wetness index of each catchment, both of which tend to increase the nonlinearity in the rainfall response. A key management question that emerges is the acceptability of residual risk where high exposure of vulnerable populations and/or critical infrastructure coincide with high costs of additional capacity in safety margins.

Gastric adenocarcinoma screening and prevention in the era of new biomarker and endoscopic technologies: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Yeh, Jennifer M; Hur, Chin; Ward, Zachary; Schrag, Deborah; Goldie, Sue J

2016-04-01

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) screening strategies based on new biomarker and endoscopic technologies. Using an intestinal-type NCGA microsimulation model, we evaluated the following one-time screening strategies for US men: (1) serum pepsinogen to detect gastric atrophy (with endoscopic follow-up of positive screen results), (2) endoscopic screening to detect dysplasia and asymptomatic cancer (with endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) treatment for detected lesions) and (3) Helicobacter pylori screening and treatment. Screening performance, treatment effectiveness, cancer and cost data were based on published literature and databases. Subgroups included current, former and never smokers. Outcomes included lifetime cancer risk and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), expressed as cost per quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) gained. Screening the general population at age 50 years reduced the lifetime intestinal-type NCGA risk (0.24%) by 26.4% with serum pepsinogen screening, 21.2% with endoscopy and EMR and 0.2% with H. pylori screening/treatment. Targeting current smokers reduced the lifetime risk (0.35%) by 30.8%, 25.5%, and 0.1%, respectively. For all subgroups, serum pepsinogen screening was more effective and more cost-effective than all other strategies, although its ICER varied from $76,000/QALY (current smokers) to $105,400/QALY (general population). Results were sensitive to H. pylori prevalence, screen age and serum pepsinogen test sensitivity. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis found that at a $100,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold, the probability that serum pepsinogen screening was preferred was 0.97 for current smokers. Although not warranted for the general population, targeting high-risk smokers for serum pepsinogen screening may be a cost-effective strategy to reduce intestinal-type NCGA mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Age-related differences in factors associated with cervical spine injuries in children.

PubMed

Leonard, Julie C; Jaffe, David M; Olsen, Cody S; Kuppermann, Nathan

2015-04-01

The Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) investigators previously identified risk factors associated with cervical spine injuries (CSIs) in children. Anatomic maturation and age-related variation in mechanisms of injury suggested the need to explore factors separately for younger versus older children. The purpose of this substudy was to investigate CSI risk factors in age subgroups within the PECARN study cohort. This was an age-stratified case-control analysis of children younger than 16 years presenting to 17 PECARN hospitals following blunt trauma between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2004. Data were abstracted for children with CSIs and randomly selected CSI-free children. Age-stratified multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with CSI within three age groups: younger than 2, 2 to 7, and 8 to 15 years. Sensitivity and specificity for CSI were estimated for both the age-specific and original (altered mental status, focal neurologic findings, neck pain, torticollis, substantial torso injury, predisposing conditions, diving, and high-risk motor vehicle crash [MVC]) models. Among 540 children with CSIs, 27 were younger than 2 years, 140 were 2 to 7 years, and 373 were 8 to 15 years. Focal neurologic deficits and high-risk MVC were associated with CSIs in all age-specific models. Other age-specific factors included the following: younger than 2 years, none; 2 to 7 years, altered mental status, neck pain, torticollis; and 8 to 15 years, altered mental status, neck pain, diving. Age-specific models had comparable sensitivity to the original model among the older groups, but had lower sensitivity and higher specificity among the youngest children. While this analysis supports the original PECARN model for CSI, there were subtle age variations in factors associated with CSIs in children that warrant future investigation. © 2015 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Smoking-attributable medical expenditures by age, sex, and smoking status estimated using a relative risk approach☆

PubMed Central

Maciosek, Michael V.; Xu, Xin; Butani, Amy L.; Pechacek, Terry F.

2015-01-01

Objective To accurately assess the benefits of tobacco control interventions and to better inform decision makers, knowledge of medical expenditures by age, gender, and smoking status is essential. Method We propose an approach to distribute smoking-attributable expenditures by age, gender, and cigarette smoking status to reflect the known risks of smoking. We distribute hospitalization days for smoking-attributable diseases according to relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality, and use the method to determine national estimates of smoking-attributable expenditures by age, sex, and cigarette smoking status. Sensitivity analyses explored assumptions of the method. Results Both current and former smokers ages 75 and over have about 12 times the smoking-attributable expenditures of their current and former smoker counterparts 35–54 years of age. Within each age group, the expenditures of formers smokers are about 70% lower than current smokers. In sensitivity analysis, these results were not robust to large changes to the relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality which were used in the calculations. Conclusion Sex- and age-group-specific smoking expenditures reflect observed disease risk differences between current and former cigarette smokers and indicate that about 70% of current smokers’ excess medical care costs is preventable by quitting. PMID:26051203

Cost-effectiveness analysis of cochlear dose reduction by proton beam therapy for medulloblastoma in childhood.

PubMed

Hirano, Emi; Fuji, Hiroshi; Onoe, Tsuyoshi; Kumar, Vinay; Shirato, Hiroki; Kawabuchi, Koichi

2014-03-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of proton beam therapy with cochlear dose reduction compared with conventional X-ray radiotherapy for medulloblastoma in childhood. We developed a Markov model to describe health states of 6-year-old children with medulloblastoma after treatment with proton or X-ray radiotherapy. The risks of hearing loss were calculated on cochlear dose for each treatment. Three types of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of EQ-5D, HUI3 and SF-6D were used for estimation of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for proton beam therapy compared with X-ray radiotherapy was calculated for each HRQOL. Sensitivity analyses were performed to model uncertainty in these parameters. The ICER for EQ-5D, HUI3 and SF-6D were $21 716/QALY, $11 773/QALY, and $20 150/QALY, respectively. One-way sensitivity analyses found that the results were sensitive to discount rate, the risk of hearing loss after proton therapy, and costs of proton irradiation. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curve analysis revealed a 99% probability of proton therapy being cost effective at a societal willingness-to-pay value. Proton beam therapy with cochlear dose reduction improves health outcomes at a cost that is within the acceptable cost-effectiveness range from the payer's standpoint.

Mapping Seabird Sensitivity to Offshore Wind Farms

PubMed Central

Bradbury, Gareth; Trinder, Mark; Furness, Bob; Banks, Alex N.; Caldow, Richard W. G.; Hume, Duncan

2014-01-01

We present a Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, SeaMaST (Seabird Mapping and Sensitivity Tool), to provide evidence on the use of sea areas by seabirds and inshore waterbirds in English territorial waters, mapping their relative sensitivity to offshore wind farms. SeaMaST is a freely available evidence source for use by all connected to the offshore wind industry and will assist statutory agencies in assessing potential risks to seabird populations from planned developments. Data were compiled from offshore boat and aerial observer surveys spanning the period 1979–2012. The data were analysed using distance analysis and Density Surface Modelling to produce predicted bird densities across a grid covering English territorial waters at a resolution of 3 km×3 km. Coefficients of Variation were estimated for each grid cell density, as an indication of confidence in predictions. Offshore wind farm sensitivity scores were compiled for seabird species using English territorial waters. The comparative risks to each species of collision with turbines and displacement from operational turbines were reviewed and scored separately, and the scores were multiplied by the bird density estimates to produce relative sensitivity maps. The sensitivity maps reflected well the amassed distributions of the most sensitive species. SeaMaST is an important new tool for assessing potential impacts on seabird populations from offshore development at a time when multiple large areas of development are proposed which overlap with many seabird species’ ranges. It will inform marine spatial planning as well as identifying priority areas of sea usage by marine birds. Example SeaMaST outputs are presented. PMID:25210739

Mapping seabird sensitivity to offshore wind farms.

PubMed

Bradbury, Gareth; Trinder, Mark; Furness, Bob; Banks, Alex N; Caldow, Richard W G; Hume, Duncan

2014-01-01

We present a Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, SeaMaST (Seabird Mapping and Sensitivity Tool), to provide evidence on the use of sea areas by seabirds and inshore waterbirds in English territorial waters, mapping their relative sensitivity to offshore wind farms. SeaMaST is a freely available evidence source for use by all connected to the offshore wind industry and will assist statutory agencies in assessing potential risks to seabird populations from planned developments. Data were compiled from offshore boat and aerial observer surveys spanning the period 1979-2012. The data were analysed using distance analysis and Density Surface Modelling to produce predicted bird densities across a grid covering English territorial waters at a resolution of 3 km×3 km. Coefficients of Variation were estimated for each grid cell density, as an indication of confidence in predictions. Offshore wind farm sensitivity scores were compiled for seabird species using English territorial waters. The comparative risks to each species of collision with turbines and displacement from operational turbines were reviewed and scored separately, and the scores were multiplied by the bird density estimates to produce relative sensitivity maps. The sensitivity maps reflected well the amassed distributions of the most sensitive species. SeaMaST is an important new tool for assessing potential impacts on seabird populations from offshore development at a time when multiple large areas of development are proposed which overlap with many seabird species' ranges. It will inform marine spatial planning as well as identifying priority areas of sea usage by marine birds. Example SeaMaST outputs are presented.

Interplay of Filaggrin Loss-of-Function Variants, Allergic Sensitization, and Eczema in a Longitudinal Study Covering Infancy to 18 Years of Age

PubMed Central

Ziyab, Ali H.; Karmaus, Wilfried; Yousefi, Mitra; Ewart, Susan; Schauberger, Eric; Holloway, John W.; Zhang, Hongmei; Arshad, Syed Hasan

2012-01-01

Background Immune specific genes as well as genes regulating the formation of skin barrier are major determinants for eczema manifestation. There is a debate as to whether allergic sensitization and filaggrin gene (FLG) variants lead to eczema or FLG variants and eczema increase the risk of allergic sensitization. To investigate the time-order between eczema and allergic sensitization with respect to FLG variants, data from a large prospective study covering infancy to late adolescence were analyzed. Methodology/Principal Findings Repeated measurements of eczema and allergic sensitization (documented by skin prick tests) at ages 1, 2, 4, 10, and 18 years were ascertained in the Isle of Wight birth cohort (n = 1,456). Three transition periods were analyzed: age 1-or-2 to 4, 4 to 10, and 10 to 18 years. FLG variants were genotyped in 1,150 participants. Over the three transition periods, in temporal sequence analyses of initially eczema-free participants, the combined effect of FLG variants and allergic sensitization showed a 2.92-fold (95% CI: 1.47–5.77) increased risk ratio (RR) of eczema in subsequent examinations. This overall risk was more pronounced at a younger age (transition period 1-or-2 to 4, RR = 6.47, 95% CI: 1.96–21.33). In contrast, FLG variants in combination with eczema showed a weaker, but significant, risk ratio for subsequent allergic sensitization only up to 10 years of age. Conclusions/Significance Taking the time order into account, this prospective study demonstrates for the first time, that a combination of FLG variants and allergic sensitization increased the risk of eczema in subsequent years. Also FLG variants interacted with eczema and increased the risk of subsequent allergic sensitization, which, was limited to the younger age. Hence, early restoration of defective skin barrier could prevent allergic sensitization and subsequently reduce the risk of eczema development. PMID:22403702

Distribution and health risk assessment of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in industrial site soils: a case study of urban renewal in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Yang, Wenrui; Wang, Rusong; Zhou, Chuanbin; Li, Feng

2009-01-01

Abstract A field survey was conducted in a contaminated industrial site of southern Beijing, China to investigate the contents and distribution of the organochlorine pesticides (alpha-, beta-, gamma-, delta-HCH, p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDD and o,p'-DDT) in the profiles of soil, and a health risk assessment was carried out with CalTOX multimedia exposure model. Results showed that mean concentrations of total hexachlorocyclohexane isomers (HCHs) and total dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane isomers (DDXs) in soils were in the range of 13.20-148.71 mg/kg, and 3.02-67.43 mg/kg, respectively. Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) content peaked in the surface and declined in soil profile with depth. The amounts of HCHs in three profiles of soil were larger than DDXs. Composition analysis indicated that there was a trend of degradation of OCPs in the site, but the mean of HCHs and DDXs concentration were over the state warning standard limit (HCHs, 0.50 mg/kg; DDXs, 0.50 mg/kg). According to current land use development, health risk assessment with CalTOX and Monte Carlo analysis showed that health risks mainly came from two exposure pathways: dermal uptake and inhalation, and the total risk values all exceeded the general acceptable health risk value (10-6). The sensitivity analysis indicated that five parameters significantly contributed to total risk.

Blood glucose concentration and risk of liver cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Han, Hedong; Zhang, Tianyi; Jin, Zhichao; Guo, Honglei; Wei, Xin; Liu, Yuzhou; Chen, Qi; He, Jia

2017-07-25

The question of whether elevated blood glucose is a risk factor for liver cancer has been intensively studied, yet with inconsistent results. To explore the relationship between blood glucose concentration and risk of liver cancer, we conduct a meta-analysis of prospective studies. Literature search was comprehensively performed using database of PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library through October 2016. Random-effect models were used to combine the effect estimations. Eight articles containing ten studies with a total of 1975 liver cancer cases were included. The pooled RRs demonstrated that elevated fasting blood glucose was associated with increased risk of liver cancer (combined RRs: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.46, 2.13) with mild heterogeneity (I2 = 30.40%, P = 0.17). In sensitivity analysis, the pooled result remained significant (combined RRs: 1.33; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.59; I2 = 33.90%, P = 0.16) when we restricted blood glucose categories in the range of nondiabetic subjects. We also detected a J-shaped non-linear dose-response relationship between blood glucose concentration and risk of liver cancer. There is evidence that elevated blood glucose increases risk of liver cancer across the range of prediabetes and diabetes. Considering the rapidly increasing prevalence of prediabetes and diabetes, controlling blood glucose may lower the risk of liver cancer.

IgE sensitization in relation to preschool eczema and filaggrin mutation.

PubMed

Johansson, Emma Kristin; Bergström, Anna; Kull, Inger; Lind, Tomas; Söderhäll, Cilla; van Hage, Marianne; Wickman, Magnus; Ballardini, Natalia; Wahlgren, Carl-Fredrik

2017-12-01

Eczema (atopic dermatitis) is associated with an increased risk of having IgE antibodies. IgE sensitization can occur through an impaired skin barrier. Filaggrin gene (FLG) mutation is associated with eczema and possibly also with IgE sensitization. We sought to explore the longitudinal relation between preschool eczema (PSE), FLG mutation, or both and IgE sensitization in childhood. A total of 3201 children from the BAMSE (Children Allergy Milieu Stockholm Epidemiology) birth cohort recruited from the general population were included. Regular parental questionnaires identified children with eczema. Blood samples were collected at 4, 8, and 16 years of age for analysis of specific IgE. FLG mutation analysis was performed on 1890 of the children. PSE was associated with IgE sensitization to both food allergens and aeroallergens up to age 16 years (overall adjusted odds ratio, 2.30; 95% CI, 2.00-2.66). This association was even stronger among children with persistent PSE. FLG mutation was associated with IgE sensitization to peanut at age 4 years (adjusted odds ratio, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.03-3.44) but not to other allergens up to age 16 years. FLG mutation and PSE were not effect modifiers for the association between IgE sensitization and PSE or FLG mutation, respectively. Sensitized children with PSE were characterized by means of polysensitization, but no other specific IgE sensitization patterns were found. PSE is associated with IgE sensitization to both food allergens and aeroallergens up to 16 years of age. FLG mutation is associated with IgE sensitization to peanut but not to other allergens. Sensitized children with preceding PSE are more often polysensitized. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sex differences in impulsivity: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Cross, Catharine P; Copping, Lee T; Campbell, Anne

2011-01-01

Men are overrepresented in socially problematic behaviors, such as aggression and criminal behavior, which have been linked to impulsivity. Our review of impulsivity is organized around the tripartite theoretical distinction between reward hypersensitivity, punishment hyposensitivity, and inadequate effortful control. Drawing on evolutionary, criminological, developmental, and personality theories, we predicted that sex differences would be most pronounced in risky activities with men demonstrating greater sensation seeking, greater reward sensitivity, and lower punishment sensitivity. We predicted a small female advantage in effortful control. We analyzed 741 effect sizes from 277 studies, including psychometric and behavioral measures. Women were consistently more punishment sensitive (d = -0.33), but men did not show greater reward sensitivity (d = 0.01). Men showed significantly higher sensation seeking on questionnaire measures (d = 0.41) and on a behavioral risk-taking task (d = 0.36). Questionnaire measures of deficits in effortful control showed a very modest effect size in the male direction (d = 0.08). Sex differences were not found on delay discounting or executive function tasks. The results indicate a stronger sex difference in motivational rather than effortful or executive forms of behavior control. Specifically, they support evolutionary and biological theories of risk taking predicated on sex differences in punishment sensitivity. A clearer understanding of sex differences in impulsivity depends upon recognizing important distinctions between sensation seeking and impulsivity, between executive and effortful forms of control, and between impulsivity as a deficit and as a trait.

BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

2016-01-01

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

Derivation of soil screening thresholds to protect chisel-toothed kangaroo rat from uranium mine waste in northern Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hinck, Jo E.; Linder, Greg L.; Otton, James K.; Finger, Susan E.; Little, Edward E.; Tillitt, Donald E.

2013-01-01

Chemical data from soil and weathered waste material samples collected from five uranium mines north of the Grand Canyon (three reclaimed, one mined but not reclaimed, and one never mined) were used in a screening-level risk analysis for the Arizona chisel-toothed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys microps leucotis); risks from radiation exposure were not evaluated. Dietary toxicity reference values were used to estimate soil-screening thresholds presenting risk to kangaroo rats. Sensitivity analyses indicated that body weight critically affected outcomes of exposed-dose calculations; juvenile kangaroo rats were more sensitive to the inorganic constituent toxicities than adult kangaroo rats. Species-specific soil-screening thresholds were derived for arsenic (137 mg/kg), cadmium (16 mg/kg), copper (1,461 mg/kg), lead (1,143 mg/kg), nickel (771 mg/kg), thallium (1.3 mg/kg), uranium (1,513 mg/kg), and zinc (731 mg/kg) using toxicity reference values that incorporate expected chronic field exposures. Inorganic contaminants in soils within and near the mine areas generally posed minimal risk to kangaroo rats. Most exceedances of soil thresholds were for arsenic and thallium and were associated with weathered mine wastes.

Phlebitis and infiltration: vascular trauma associated with the peripheral venous catheter

PubMed Central

Braga, Luciene Muniz; Parreira, Pedro Miguel; Oliveira, Anabela de Sousa Salgueiro; Mónico, Lisete dos Santos Mendes; Arreguy-Sena, Cristina; Henriques, Maria Adriana

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: to determine the incidence rate and risk factors for the nursing-sensitive indicators phlebitis and infiltration in patients with peripheral venous catheters (PVCs). Method: cohort study with 110 patients. Scales were used to assess and document phlebitis and infiltration. Socio-demographic variables, clinical variables related to the PVC, medication and hospitalization variables were collected. Descriptive and inferential analysis and multivariate logistic models were used. Results: the incidence rate of phlebitis and infiltration was respectively 43.2 and 59.7 per 1000 catheter-days. Most PVCs with these vascular traumas were removed in the first 24 hours. Risk factors for phlebitis were: length of hospital stay (p=0.042) and number of catheters inserted (p<0.001); risk factors for infiltration were: piperacillin/tazobactan (p=0.024) and the number of catheters inserted (p<0.001). Conclusion: the investigation documented the incidence of nursing-sensitive indicators (phlebitis and infiltration) and revealed new risk factors related to infiltration. It also allowed a reflection on the nursing care necessary to prevent these vascular traumas and on the indications and contraindications of the PVC, supporting the implementation of the PICC as an alternative to PVC. PMID:29791668

Complement factor H Y402H variant and risk of age-related macular degeneration in Asians: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kondo, Naoshi; Bessho, Hiroaki; Honda, Shigeru; Negi, Akira

2011-02-01

To investigate whether the Y402H variant in the complement factor H gene is associated with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in Asian populations. Meta-analysis of previous publications. Case-control groups of subjects with AMD and controls from 13 association studies. We performed a meta-analysis of the association between Y402H and AMD in Asian populations using data available from 13 case-control studies involving 3973 subjects. Summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using fixed- and random-effects models. The Q-statistic test was used to assess heterogeneity, and Egger's test was used to evaluate publication bias. Sensitivity analysis, cumulative meta-analysis, and meta-regression analysis were also performed. Allele and genotype frequencies of the Y402H variant. The Y402H variant showed a significant summary OR of 1.97 (95% CI, 1.54-2.52; P<0.001; allelic contrast model) per allele. Possession of at least 1 copy of the C allele increased the disease risk by 1.97-fold (95% CI, 1.63-2.39; P<0.001; dominant model) and accounted for 8.8% of the attributable risk of AMD in Asian populations. Sensitivity analysis indicated the robustness of our findings, and evidence of publication bias was not observed in our meta-analysis. Meta-regression analysis indicated no significant effect of baseline study characteristics on the summary effect size. Cumulative meta-analysis revealed that the summary ORs were stable and the 95% CIs narrowed with the accumulation of data over time. Our analysis provides substantial evidence that the Y402H variant is significantly associated with AMD in Asian populations. Our results expand the number of confirmed AMD susceptibility loci for Asians populations, which provide a better understanding of the genetic architecture underlying disease susceptibility and may advance the potential for preclinical prediction in future genetic tests by a combined evaluation of inherited susceptibility with previously established loci. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incorporating concepts of inequality and inequity into health benefits analysis

PubMed Central

Levy, Jonathan I; Chemerynski, Susan M; Tuchmann, Jessica L

2006-01-01

Background Although environmental policy decisions are often based in part on both risk assessment information and environmental justice concerns, formalized approaches for addressing inequality or inequity when estimating the health benefits of pollution control have been lacking. Inequality indicators that fulfill basic axioms and agree with relevant definitions and concepts in health benefits analysis and environmental justice analysis can allow for quantitative examination of efficiency-equality tradeoffs in pollution control policies. Methods To develop appropriate inequality indicators for health benefits analysis, we provide relevant definitions from the fields of risk assessment and environmental justice and consider the implications. We evaluate axioms proposed in past studies of inequality indicators and develop additional axioms relevant to this context. We survey the literature on previous applications of inequality indicators and evaluate five candidate indicators in reference to our proposed axioms. We present an illustrative pollution control example to determine whether our selected indicators provide interpretable information. Results and Conclusions We conclude that an inequality indicator for health benefits analysis should not decrease when risk is transferred from a low-risk to high-risk person, and that it should decrease when risk is transferred from a high-risk to low-risk person (Pigou-Dalton transfer principle), and that it should be able to have total inequality divided into its constituent parts (subgroup decomposability). We additionally propose that an ideal indicator should avoid value judgments about the relative importance of transfers at different percentiles of the risk distribution, incorporate health risk with evidence about differential susceptibility, include baseline distributions of risk, use appropriate geographic resolution and scope, and consider multiple competing policy alternatives. Given these criteria, we select the Atkinson index as the single indicator most appropriate for health benefits analysis, with other indicators useful for sensitivity analysis. Our illustrative pollution control example demonstrates how these indices can help a policy maker determine control strategies that are dominated from an efficiency and equality standpoint, those that are dominated for some but not all societal viewpoints on inequality averseness, and those that are on the optimal efficiency-equality frontier, allowing for more informed pollution control policies. PMID:16569243

Adverse outcomes in older adults attending emergency departments: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the Identification of Seniors At Risk (ISAR) screening tool.

PubMed

Galvin, Rose; Gilleit, Yannick; Wallace, Emma; Cousins, Gráinne; Bolmer, Manon; Rainer, Timothy; Smith, Susan M; Fahey, Tom

2017-03-01

older adults are frequent users of emergency services and demonstrate high rates of adverse outcomes following emergency care. to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the Identification of Seniors At Risk (ISAR) screening tool, to determine its predictive value in identifying adults ≥65 years at risk of functional decline, unplanned emergency department (ED) readmission, emergency hospitalisation or death within 180 days after index ED visit/hospitalisation. a systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, EBSCO and the Cochrane Library to identify validation and impact analysis studies of the ISAR tool. A pre-specified ISAR score of ≥2 (maximum score 6 points) was used to identify patients at high risk of adverse outcomes. A bivariate random effects model generated pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity. Statistical heterogeneity was explored and methodological quality was assessed using validated criteria. thirty-two validation studies (n = 12,939) are included. At ≥2, the pooled sensitivity of the ISAR for predicting ED return, emergency hospitalisation and mortality at 6 months is 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.87), 0.82 (95% CI 0.74-0.88) and 0.87 (95% CI 0.75-0.94), respectively, with a pooled specificity of 0.31 (95% CI 0.24-0.38), 0.32 (95% CI 0.24-0.41) and 0.35 (95% CI 0.26-0.44). Similar values are demonstrated at 30 and 90 days. Three heterogeneous impact analysis studies examined the clinical implementation of the ISAR and reported mixed findings across patient and process outcomes. the ISAR has modest predictive accuracy and may serve as a decision-making adjunct when determining which older adults can be safely discharged. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Disease burden of chronic hepatitis C among immigrants in Canada.

PubMed

Chen, W; Krahn, M

2015-12-01

Immigrants with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) in Canada have doubled risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. To measure the burden of CHC among immigrants in Canada. A decision analytic model was developed to compare immigrants with CHC and age-matched immigrants without CHC for survival years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and medical costs per life year. Hepatitis C epidemiology among immigrants was based on hepatitis C prevalence in their home countries. A cohort of immigrant patients was retrospectively followed up to estimate fibrosis stage distribution, treatment patterns and prognosis of compensated cirrhosis. Other model variables were based on published sources. Base case analysis, one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to measure the burden of CHC and assess the impact of uncertainty associated with model variables on the burden of CHC. CHC could reduce survival by 9.6 years [95% credible interval (CI): 8.0-10.9 years], reduce QALYs by 9.5 years (95% CI: 6.0-13.8 years) and increase medical costs per life year by $1950 (95% CI: $1518 to $2486, 2006 Canadian dollars). Because nearly half of immigrants with CHC were not diagnosed until the development of cirrhosis, the burden of CHC was highly sensitive to the risks of liver-related complications and mortality but insensitive to pegylated interferon plus ribavirin. The burden of CHC among immigrants in Canada is substantial mainly due to liver-related complications and mortality. The delay in diagnosis was another important contributor to the burden of CHC among immigrants. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integrated Application of Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network Algorithms to Predict Viral Contamination in Coastal Waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamkhali Chenar, S.; Deng, Z.

2017-12-01

Pathogenic viruses pose a significant public health threat and economic losses to shellfish industry in the coastal environment. Norovirus is a contagious virus and the leading cause of epidemic gastroenteritis following consumption of oysters harvested from sewage-contaminated waters. While it is challenging to detect noroviruses in coastal waters due to the lack of sensitive and routine diagnostic methods, machine learning techniques are allowing us to prevent or at least reduce the risks by developing effective predictive models. This study attempts to develop an algorithm between historical norovirus outbreak reports and environmental parameters including water temperature, solar radiation, water level, salinity, precipitation, and wind. For this purpose, the Random Forests statistical technique was utilized to select relevant environmental parameters and their various combinations with different time lags controlling the virus distribution in oyster harvesting areas along the Louisiana Coast. An Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) approach was then presented to predict the outbreaks using a final set of input variables. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate relative importance and contribution of the input variables to the model output. Findings demonstrated that the developed model was capable of reproducing historical oyster norovirus outbreaks along the Louisiana Coast with the overall accuracy of than 99.83%, demonstrating the efficacy of the model. Moreover, the increase in water temperature, solar radiation, water level, and salinity, and the decrease in wind and rainfall are associated with the reduction in the model-predicted risk of norovirus outbreak according to sensitivity analysis results. In conclusion, the presented machine learning approach provided reliable tools for predicting potential norovirus outbreaks and could be used for early detection of possible outbreaks and reduce the risk of norovirus to public health and the seafood industry.

Predicting Vasovagal Syncope from Heart Rate and Blood Pressure: A Prospective Study in 140 Subjects.

PubMed

Virag, Nathalie; Erickson, Mark; Taraborrelli, Patricia; Vetter, Rolf; Lim, Phang Boon; Sutton, Richard

2018-04-28

We developed a vasovagal syncope (VVS) prediction algorithm for use during head-up tilt with simultaneous analysis of heart rate (HR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP). We previously tested this algorithm retrospectively in 1155 subjects, showing sensitivity 95%, specificity 93% and median prediction time of 59s. This study was prospective, single center, on 140 subjects to evaluate this VVS prediction algorithm and assess if retrospective results were reproduced and clinically relevant. Primary endpoint was VVS prediction: sensitivity and specificity >80%. In subjects, referred for 60° head-up tilt (Italian protocol), non-invasive HR and SBP were supplied to the VVS prediction algorithm: simultaneous analysis of RR intervals, SBP trends and their variability represented by low-frequency power generated cumulative risk which was compared with a predetermined VVS risk threshold. When cumulative risk exceeded threshold, an alert was generated. Prediction time was duration between first alert and syncope. Of 140 subjects enrolled, data was usable for 134. Of 83 tilt+ve (61.9%), 81 VVS events were correctly predicted and of 51 tilt-ve subjects (38.1%), 45 were correctly identified as negative by the algorithm. Resulting algorithm performance was sensitivity 97.6%, specificity 88.2%, meeting primary endpoint. Mean VVS prediction time was 2min 26s±3min16s with median 1min 25s. Using only HR and HR variability (without SBP) the mean prediction time reduced to 1min34s±1min45s with median 1min13s. The VVS prediction algorithm, is clinically-relevant tool and could offer applications including providing a patient alarm, shortening tilt-test time, or triggering pacing intervention in implantable devices. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Temporal seizure focus and status epilepticus are associated with high-sensitive troponin I elevation after epileptic seizures.

PubMed

Chatzikonstantinou, Anastasios; Ebert, Anne D; Hennerici, Michael G

2015-09-01

Postictal elevation of high-sensitive troponin I (TNI), a highly specific biomarker for myocardial ischemia, has been reported. We aimed at evaluating its association of high-sensitive troponin I (TNI) with seizure type and focus, as well as vascular risk factors. TNI was measured in 247 patients admitted to our clinic via the emergency room with an acute epileptic seizure. TNI control measurements were performed in 61.5% of cases. All patients underwent electroencephalography and cerebral imaging. Seizure focus - when possible - was determined using results from these examinations as well as clinical data. Of 247 patients, 133 (53.8%) were men, the mean age was 59 ± 18 years. 70 (28.3%) patients had focal and 177 (71.7%) generalized seizures. Status epilepticus was present in 38 cases (15.4%). Mean TNI was 0.05 ± 0.17. TNI was elevated in 27 patients (10.9%). Higher age, status epilepticus and temporal seizure focus were significantly associated with TNI elevation in multivariate analysis. In 21 (13.8%) of the patients with TNI control measurement, TNI was continuously elevated. Higher age and temporal seizure focus were significantly associated with continuously high TNI. Coronary heart disease and vascular risk factors were significantly associated with high TNI only in univariate analysis. No patient had a symptomatic myocardial ischemia. Postictal TNI elevation is relatively common in older patients with status epilepticus or temporal seizure focus. These data support the concept of relevant and possibly dangerous ictal effects on cardiac function especially in temporal lobe seizures. Although the risk of manifest postictal myocardial infarction seems to be very low, selected patients could profit from closer monitoring. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chronic toxicity of copper to five benthic invertebrates in laboratory-formulated sediment: sensitivity comparison and preliminary risk assessment.

PubMed

Roman, Yblin E; De Schamphelaere, Karel A C; Nguyen, Lien T H; Janssen, Colin R

2007-11-15

Five benthic organisms commonly used for sediment toxicity testing were chronically (28 to 35 days) exposed to copper in standard laboratory-formulated sediment (following Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development guidelines) and lethal and sub-lethal toxicities were evaluated. Sub-lethal endpoints considered were reproduction and biomass production for Lumbriculus variegatus, growth and reproduction for Tubifex tubifex, growth and emergence for Chironomus riparius, and growth for Gammarus pulex and Hyalella azteca. Expressed on whole-sediment basis the observed lethal sensitivity ranking (from most to least sensitive) was: G. pulex>L. variegatus>H. azteca=C. riparius=T. tubifex, with median chronic lethal concentrations (LC50) between 151 and 327 mg/kg dry wt. The sub-lethal sensitivity ranking (from most to least sensitive, with the most sensitive endpoint between parentheses): C. riparius (emergence)>T. tubifex (reproduction)=L. variegatus (reproduction)>G. pulex (growth)>H. azteca (growth), with median effective concentrations (EC50) between 59.2 and 194 mg/kg dry wt. No observed effect concentrations (NOEC) or 10% effective concentrations (EC10) for the five benthic invertebrates were used to perform a preliminary risk assessment for copper in freshwater sediment by means of (a) the "assessment factor approach" or (b) the statistical extrapolation approach (species sensitivity distribution). Depending on the data (NOEC or EC10) and the methodology used, we calculated a Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC) for sediment between 3.3 and 47.1 mg Cu/dry wt. This range is similar to the range of natural (geochemical) background concentrations of copper in sediments in Europe, i.e. 90% of sediments have a concentration between 5 and 49 mg Cu/kg dry wt. A detailed analysis of the outcome of this preliminary exercise highlighted that multiple issues need to be explored for achieving a scientifically more sound risk assessment and for the development of robust sediment quality criteria for copper, including (i) the use of the assessment factor approach vs. the statistical extrapolation approach, (ii) the importance of bioavailability modifying factors (e.g., organic carbon, acid volatile sulfide), and (iii) the influence of prevailing geochemical (bioavailable) background concentrations on the copper sensitivity of local benthic biota.

Value of PAX1 Methylation Analysis by MS-HRM in the Triage of Atypical Squamous Cells of Undetermined Significance.

PubMed

Li, Shi-Rong; Wang, Zhen-Ming; Wang, Yu-Hui; Wang, Xi-Bo; Zhao, Jian-Qiang; Xue, Hai-Bin; Jiang, Fu-Guo

2015-01-01

Detection of cervical high grade lesions in patients with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) is still a challenge. Our study tested the efficacy of the paired boxed gene 1 (PAX1) methylation analysis by methylation-sensitive high-resolution melting (MS-HRM) in the detection of high grade lesions in ASCUS and compared performance with the hybrid capture 2 (HC2) human papillomavirus (HPV) test. A total of 463 consecutive ASCUS women from primary screening were selected. Their cervical scrapings were collected and assessed by PAX1 methylation analysis (MS-HRM) and high-risk HPV-DNA test (HC2). All patients with ASCUS were admitted to colposcopy and cervical biopsies. The Chi- square test was used to test the differences of PAX1 methylation or HPV infection between groups. The specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy for detecting CIN2 + lesions were: 95.6%, 82.4%, and 94.6%, respectively, for the PAX1 MS-HRM test; and 59.7%, 64.7%, and 60.0% for the HC2 HPV test. The PAX1 methylation analysis by MS-HRM demonstrated a better performance than the high-risk HPV-DNA test for the detection of high grade lesions (CIN2 +) in ASCUS cases. This approach could screen out the majority of low grade cases of ASCUS, and thus reduce the referral rate to colposcopy.

A preliminary study of screening for risk of autism in children with fragile X syndrome: testing two risk cut-offs for the Checklist for Autism in Toddlers.

PubMed

Scambler, D J; Hepburn, S L; Hagerman, R J; Rogers, S J

2007-04-01

Risk criteria for the Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (CHAT) and modified risk criteria (i.e. the Denver Criteria) were compared in a group of children with fragile X syndrome (FXS) and autism. Participants were 17 children aged 2-4 years with DNA confirmation of FXS. Four children had autism and 13 children did not. Preliminary findings regarding the sensitivity and specificity of the CHAT for detecting risk for autism in children with FXS are as follows: using the original CHAT risk criteria, sensitivity and specificity were 50% and 100%, respectively; and using the Denver Criteria, sensitivity and specificity were 75% and 92%, respectively. The CHAT and the Denver Criteria resulted in preliminary findings suggesting high levels of sensitivity to autism in children with FXS.

Real-time polymerase chain reaction for diagnosing infectious mononucleosis in pediatric patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jiang, Sha-Yi; Yang, Jing-Wei; Shao, Jing-Bo; Liao, Xue-Lian; Lu, Zheng-Hua; Jiang, Hui

2016-05-01

In this meta-analysis, we evaluated the diagnostic role of Epstein-Barr virus deoxyribonucleic acid detection and quantitation in the serum of pediatric and young adult patients with infectious mononucleosis. The primary outcome of this meta-analysis was the sensitivity and specificity of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) detection and quantitation using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed by searching for articles that were published through September 24, 2014 in the following databases: Medline, Cochrane, EMBASE, and Google Scholar. The following keywords were used for the search: "Epstein-Barr virus," "infectious mononucleosis," "children/young adults/infant/pediatric," and "polymerase chain reaction or PCR." Three were included in this analysis. We found that for detection by PCR, the pooled sensitivity for detecting EBV DNA was 77% (95%CI, 66-86%) and the pooled specificity for was 98% (95%CI, 93-100%). Our findings indicate that this PCR-based assay has high specificity and good sensitivity for detecting of EBV DNA, indicating it may useful for identifying patients with infectious mononucleosis. This assay may also be helpful to identify young athletic patients or highly physically active pediatric patients who are at risk for a splenic rupture due to acute infectious mononucleosis. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Association between the BRCA2 rs144848 polymorphism and cancer susceptibility: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Qiuyan; Guan, Rongwei; Qiao, Yuandong; Liu, Chang; He, Ning; Zhang, Xuelong; Jia, Xueyuan; Sun, Haiming; Yu, Jingcui; Xu, Lidan

2017-06-13

The BRCA2 gene plays an important role in cancer carcinogenesis, and polymorphisms in this gene have been associated with cancer risk. The BRCA2 rs144848 polymorphism has been associated with several cancers, but results have been inconsistent. In the present study, a meta-analysis was performed to assess the association between the rs144848 polymorphism and cancer risk. Literature was searched from the databases of PubMed, Embase and Google Scholar before April 2016. The fixed or random effects model was used to calculate pooled odd ratios on the basis of heterogeneity. Meta-regression, sensitivity analysis, subgroup analysis and publication bias assessment were also performed using STATA 11.0 software according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2009. A total of 40 relevant studies from 30 publications including 34,911 cases and 48,329 controls were included in the final meta-analysis. Among them, 22 studies focused on breast cancer, seven on ovarian cancer, five on non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and the remaining six studies examined various other cancers. The meta-analysis results showed that there were significant associations between the rs144848 polymorphism and cancer risk in all genetic models. Stratified by cancer type, the rs144848 polymorphism was associated with non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Stratified by study design, the allele model was associated with breast cancer risk in population-based studies. The meta-analysis suggests that the BRCA2 rs144848 polymorphism may play a role in cancer risk. Further well-designed studies are warranted to confirm these results.

Newborns with suspected occult spinal dysraphism: a cost-effectiveness analysis of diagnostic strategies.

PubMed

Medina, L S; Crone, K; Kuntz, K M

2001-12-01

To assess the clinical and economic consequences of different diagnostic strategies in newborns with suspected occult spinal dysraphism. A decision-analytic model was constructed to project the cost and health outcomes of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), ultrasound (US), plain radiographs, and no imaging in newborns with suspected occult spinal dysraphism. Morbidity and mortality rates of early versus late diagnosis of dysraphism and the sensitivity and specificity of MRI, US, and plain radiographs were obtained from the literature. Cost estimates were obtained from a hospital cost accounting database and from the Medicaid fee schedule. We found that the choice of imaging strategy depends on the underlying risk of occult spinal dysraphism. In low-risk children with intergluteal dimple or newborns of diabetic mothers (pretest probability: 0.3%-0.34%), US was the most effective strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $55 100 per quality-adjusted life year gained. For children with lumbosacral dimples, who have a higher pretest probability of 3.8%, US was less costly and more effective than the other 3 strategies considered. In intermediate-risk newborns with low anorectal malformation (pretest probability: 27%), US was more effective and less costly than radiographs and no imaging. However, MRI was more effective than US at an incremental cost-effectiveness of $1000 per quality-adjusted life year gained. In the high-risk group that included high anorectal malformation, cloacal malformation, and exstrophy (pretest probability: 44%-46%), MRI was actually cost-saving when compared with the other diagnostic strategies. For the intermediate-risk group, we found our analysis to be sensitive to the costs and diagnostic performances (sensitivity and specificity) of MRI and US. Lower MRI cost or greater MRI diagnostic performance improved the cost-effectiveness of the MRI strategy, whereas lower US cost or greater US diagnostic performance worsened the cost-effectiveness of the MRI strategy. Therefore, individual or institutional expertise with a specific diagnostic modality (MRI versus US) may influence the optimal diagnostic strategy. In newborns with suspected occult dysraphism, appropriate selection of patients and diagnostic strategy may increase quality-adjusted life expectancy and decrease cost of medical work-up.

Effects of Combined Calcium and Vitamin D Supplementation on Insulin Secretion, Insulin Sensitivity and β-Cell Function in Multi-Ethnic Vitamin D-Deficient Adults at Risk for Type 2 Diabetes: A Pilot Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Gagnon, Claudia; Daly, Robin M.; Carpentier, André; Lu, Zhong X.; Shore-Lorenti, Catherine; Sikaris, Ken; Jean, Sonia; Ebeling, Peter R.

2014-01-01

Objectives To examine whether combined vitamin D and calcium supplementation improves insulin sensitivity, insulin secretion, β-cell function, inflammation and metabolic markers. Design 6-month randomized, placebo-controlled trial. Participants Ninety-five adults with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] ≤55 nmol/L at risk of type 2 diabetes (with prediabetes or an AUSDRISK score ≥15) were randomized. Analyses included participants who completed the baseline and final visits (treatment n = 35; placebo n = 45). Intervention Daily calcium carbonate (1,200 mg) and cholecalciferol [2,000–6,000 IU to target 25(OH)D >75 nmol/L] or matching placebos for 6 months. Measurements Insulin sensitivity (HOMA2%S, Matsuda index), insulin secretion (insulinogenic index, area under the curve (AUC) for C-peptide) and β-cell function (Matsuda index x AUC for C-peptide) derived from a 75 g 2-h OGTT; anthropometry; blood pressure; lipid profile; hs-CRP; TNF-α; IL-6; adiponectin; total and undercarboxylated osteocalcin. Results Participants were middle-aged adults (mean age 54 years; 69% Europid) at risk of type 2 diabetes (48% with prediabetes). Compliance was >80% for calcium and vitamin D. Mean serum 25(OH)D concentration increased from 48 to 95 nmol/L in the treatment group (91% achieved >75 nmol/L), but remained unchanged in controls. There were no significant changes in insulin sensitivity, insulin secretion and β-cell function, or in inflammatory and metabolic markers between or within the groups, before or after adjustment for potential confounders including waist circumference and season of recruitment. In a post hoc analysis restricted to participants with prediabetes, a significant beneficial effect of vitamin D and calcium supplementation on insulin sensitivity (HOMA%S and Matsuda) was observed. Conclusions Daily vitamin D and calcium supplementation for 6 months may not change OGTT-derived measures of insulin sensitivity, insulin secretion and β-cell function in multi-ethnic adults with low vitamin D status at risk of type 2 diabetes. However, in participants with prediabetes, supplementation with vitamin D and calcium may improve insulin sensitivity. Trial Registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12609000043235 PMID:25299668

An EEG should not be obtained routinely after first unprovoked seizure in childhood.

PubMed

Gilbert, D L; Buncher, C R

2000-02-08

To quantify and analyze the value of expected information from an EEG after first unprovoked seizure in childhood. An EEG is often recommended as part of the standard diagnostic evaluation after first seizure. A MEDLINE search from 1980 to 1998 was performed. From eligible studies, data on EEG results and seizure recurrence risk in children were abstracted, and sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of EEG in predicting recurrence were calculated. Linear information theory was used to quantify and compare the expected information from the EEG in all studies. Standard test-treat decision analysis with a treatment threshold at 80% recurrence risk was used to determine the range of pretest recurrence probabilities over which testing affects treatment decisions. Four studies involving 831 children were eligible for analysis. At best, the EEG had a sensitivity of 61%, a specificity of 71%, and an expected information of 0.16 out of a possible 0.50. The pretest probability of recurrence was less than the lower limit of the range for rational testing in all studies. In this analysis, the quantity of expected information from the EEG was too low to affect treatment recommendations in most patients. EEG should be ordered selectively, not routinely, after first unprovoked seizure in childhood.

Performance of Photoscreener in Detection of Refractive Error in All Age Groups and Amblyopia Risk Factors in Children in a Tribal District of Odisha: The Tribal Odisha Eye Disease Study (TOES) # 3

PubMed Central

Panda, Lapam; Barik, Umasankar; Nayak, Suryasmita; Barik, Biswajit; Behera, Gyanaranjan; Kekunnaya, Ramesh

2018-01-01

Purpose To evaluate effectiveness of Welch Allyn Spot Vision Screener in detecting refractive error in all age groups and amblyopia risk factors in children in a tribal district of India. Methods All participants received dry retinoscopy and photorefraction; children also received cycloplegic retinoscopy. Statistical analysis included Bland-Altman and coefficient of determination (R2). Results Photoscreener could not elicit a response in 113 adults and 5 children of 580 recruited participants. In Bland-Altman analysis mean difference of Spot screener spherical equivalent (SSSE) and dry retinoscopy spherical equivalent (DRSE) was 0.32 diopters (D) in adults and 0.18 D in children; this was an overestimation of hyperopia and underestimation of myopia. In Bland-Altman analysis of SSSE and cycloplegic retinoscopy spherical equivalent (CRSE) the mean difference was −0.30 D in children; this was an overestimation of myopia and underestimation of hyperopia. In regression analysis the relationship between SSSE and DRSE was poor in adults (R2 = 0.50) and good in children (R2 = 0.92). Cubic regression model for Spot versus cycloretinoscopy in children was: CRSE = 0.34 + 0.85 SSSE − 0.01 SSSE2 + 0.006 SSSE3. It was 87% accurate. Sensitivity and specificity of Spot in detecting amblyopia risk factors (2013 American Association for Pediatric Ophthalmology and Strabismus [AAPOS] criteria) was 93.3% and 96.9% respectively. Sensitivity of Spot screener in detection of amblyopia was 72%. Conclusions Photoscreener has 87% accuracy in refraction in children. Its value could be used for subjective correction tests. Translational Relevance Photoscreening could complement traditional retinoscopy to address refractive error in children in a resource-limited facility region. PMID:29881649

Rejection Sensitivity, Perceived Power, and HIV Risk in the Relationships of Low-Income Urban Women.

PubMed

Berenson, Kathy R; Paprocki, Christine; Thomas Fishman, Marget; Bhushan, Devika; El-Bassel, Nabila; Downey, Geraldine

2015-01-01

The psychological processes associated with HIV infection in long-term relationships differ from those operative in casual sexual encounters, and relatively little research has considered the aspects of personality applicable in the ongoing heterosexual relationships in which women are at greatest risk. Sensitivity to rejection has been linked with efforts to prevent rejection at a cost to the self and, therefore, may be relevant to the health risks that many women incur in relationships. We examined the association of rejection sensitivity with women's sexual risk behavior in a sample of women at heightened risk for HIV exposure. Women in long-term heterosexual relationships (N = 159) were recruited for study participation in the hospital emergency room serving a low-income neighborhood in New York City, in 2001-2003. Rejection sensitivity and known HIV risk factors were assessed using verbally administered questionnaires. Rejection sensitivity was associated with lower perceived relationship power and, in turn, more frequent unprotected sex with a partner perceived to be at risk for HIV. These results held when controlling for other HIV risk factors including partner violence, economic dependence, and substance use. Understanding the association of rejection concerns with lower perceived personal power in relationships may be important for HIV prevention.

Rejection Sensitivity, Perceived Power and HIV Risk in the Relationships of Low-Income Urban Women

PubMed Central

Berenson, Kathy R.; Paprocki, Christine; Fishman, Marget Thomas; Bhushan, Devika; El-Bassel, Nabila; Downey, Geraldine

2016-01-01

The psychological processes associated with HIV infection in long-term relationships differ from those operative in casual sexual encounters, and relatively little research has considered the aspects of personality applicable in the ongoing heterosexual relationships in which women are at greatest risk. Sensitivity to rejection has been linked with efforts to prevent rejection at a cost to the self and therefore may be relevant to the health risks that many women incur in relationships. We examined the association of rejection sensitivity with women’s sexual risk behavior in a sample of women at heightened risk for HIV exposure. Women in long-term heterosexual relationships (N = 159) were recruited for study participation in the hospital emergency room serving a low-income neighborhood in New York City, in 2001–2003. Rejection sensitivity and known HIV risk factors were assessed using verbally administered questionnaires. Rejection sensitivity was associated with lower perceived relationship power and in turn, more frequent unprotected sex with a partner perceived to be at risk for HIV. These results held when controlling for other HIV risk factors including partner violence, economic dependence, and substance use. Understanding the association of rejection concerns with lower perceived personal power in relationships may be important for HIV prevention. PMID:26086275

Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Direct Economic Flood Damages: the FloodRisk Free and Open-Source Software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Mancusi, L.; Cantisani, A.; Perrone, A.

2017-12-01

The considerable increase of flood damages in the the past decades has shifted in Europe the attention from protection against floods to managing flood risks. In this context, the expected damages assessment represents a crucial information within the overall flood risk management process. The present paper proposes an open source software, called FloodRisk, that is able to operatively support stakeholders in the decision making processes with a what-if approach by carrying out the rapid assessment of the flood consequences, in terms of direct economic damage and loss of human lives. The evaluation of the damage scenarios, trough the use of the GIS software proposed here, is essential for cost-benefit or multi-criteria analysis of risk mitigation alternatives. However, considering that quantitative assessment of flood damages scenarios is characterized by intrinsic uncertainty, a scheme has been developed to identify and quantify the role of the input parameters in the total uncertainty of flood loss model application in urban areas with mild terrain and complex topography. By the concept of parallel models, the contribution of different module and input parameters to the total uncertainty is quantified. The results of the present case study have exhibited a high epistemic uncertainty on the damage estimation module and, in particular, on the type and form of the utilized damage functions, which have been adapted and transferred from different geographic and socio-economic contexts because there aren't depth-damage functions that are specifically developed for Italy. Considering that uncertainty and sensitivity depend considerably on local characteristics, the epistemic uncertainty associated with the risk estimate is reduced by introducing additional information into the risk analysis. In the light of the obtained results, it is evident the need to produce and disseminate (open) data to develop micro-scale vulnerability curves. Moreover, the urgent need to push forward research into the implementation of methods and models for the assimilation of uncertainties in decision-making processes emerges.

Risk factors for low receptive vocabulary abilities in the preschool and early school years in the longitudinal study of Australian children.

PubMed

Christensen, Daniel; Zubrick, Stephen R; Lawrence, David; Mitrou, Francis; Taylor, Catherine L

2014-01-01

Receptive vocabulary development is a component of the human language system that emerges in the first year of life and is characterised by onward expansion throughout life. Beginning in infancy, children's receptive vocabulary knowledge builds the foundation for oral language and reading skills. The foundations for success at school are built early, hence the public health policy focus on reducing developmental inequalities before children start formal school. The underlying assumption is that children's development is stable, and therefore predictable, over time. This study investigated this assumption in relation to children's receptive vocabulary ability. We investigated the extent to which low receptive vocabulary ability at 4 years was associated with low receptive vocabulary ability at 8 years, and the predictive utility of a multivariate model that included child, maternal and family risk factors measured at 4 years. The study sample comprised 3,847 children from the first nationally representative Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate risks for low receptive vocabulary ability from 4-8 years and sensitivity-specificity analysis was used to examine the predictive utility of the multivariate model. In the multivariate model, substantial risk factors for receptive vocabulary delay from 4-8 years, in order of descending magnitude, were low receptive vocabulary ability at 4 years, low maternal education, and low school readiness. Moderate risk factors, in order of descending magnitude, were low maternal parenting consistency, socio-economic area disadvantage, low temperamental persistence, and NESB status. The following risk factors were not significant: One or more siblings, low family income, not reading to the child, high maternal work hours, and Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander ethnicity. The results of the sensitivity-specificity analysis showed that a well-fitted multivariate model featuring risks of substantive magnitude does not do particularly well in predicting low receptive vocabulary ability from 4-8 years.

Relationship between paediatric CT scans and subsequent risk of leukaemia and brain tumours: assessment of the impact of underlying conditions.

PubMed

Berrington de Gonzalez, Amy; Salotti, Jane A; McHugh, Kieran; Little, Mark P; Harbron, Richard W; Lee, Choonsik; Ntowe, Estelle; Braganza, Melissa Z; Parker, Louise; Rajaraman, Preetha; Stiller, Charles; Stewart, Douglas R; Craft, Alan W; Pearce, Mark S

2016-02-16

We previously reported evidence of a dose-response relationship between ionising-radiation exposure from paediatric computed tomography (CT) scans and the risk of leukaemia and brain tumours in a large UK cohort. Underlying unreported conditions could have introduced bias into these findings. We collected and reviewed additional clinical information from radiology information systems (RIS) databases, underlying cause of death and pathology reports. We conducted sensitivity analyses excluding participants with cancer-predisposing conditions or previous unreported cancers and compared the dose-response analyses with our original results. We obtained information from the RIS and death certificates for about 40% of the cohort (n∼180 000) and found cancer-predisposing conditions in 4 out of 74 leukaemia/myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) cases and 13 out of 135 brain tumour cases. As these conditions were unrelated to CT exposure, exclusion of these participants did not alter the dose-response relationships. We found evidence of previous unreported cancers in 2 leukaemia/MDS cases, 7 brain tumour cases and 232 in non-cases. These previous cancers were related to increased number of CTs. Exclusion of these cancers reduced the excess relative risk per mGy by 15% from 0.036 to 0.033 for leukaemia/MDS (P-trend=0.02) and by 30% from 0.023 to 0.016 (P-trend<0.0001) for brain tumours. When we included pathology reports we had additional clinical information for 90% of the cases. Additional exclusions from these reports further reduced the risk estimates, but this sensitivity analysis may have underestimated risks as reports were only available for cases. Although there was evidence of some bias in our original risk estimates, re-analysis of the cohort with additional clinical data still showed an increased cancer risk after low-dose radiation exposure from CT scans in young patients.

Anti-hypertensive drugs and skin cancer risk: a review of the literature and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Gandini, Sara; Palli, Domenico; Spadola, Giuseppe; Bendinelli, Benedetta; Cocorocchio, Emilia; Stanganelli, Ignazio; Miligi, Lucia; Masala, Giovanna; Caini, Saverio

2018-02-01

Several anti-hypertensive drugs have photosensitizing properties, however it remains unclear whether long-term users of these drugs are also at increased risk of skin malignancies. We conducted a literature review and meta-analysis on the association between use of anti-hypertensive drugs and the risk of cutaneous melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Google Scholar and the Cochrane Library, and included observational and experimental epidemiological studies published until February 28th, 2017. We calculated summary relative risk (SRR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) through random effect models to estimate the risk of skin malignancies among users of the following classes of anti-hypertensive drugs: thiazide diuretics, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB), calcium channel blockers (CCB) and β-blockers. We conducted sub-group and sensitivity analysis to explore causes of between-studies heterogeneity, and assessed publication bias using a funnel-plot based approach. Nineteen independent studies were included in the meta-analysis. CCB users were at increased skin cancer risk (SRR 1.14, 95% CI 1.07-1.21), and β-blockers users were at increased risk of developing cutaneous melanoma (SRR 1.21, 95% CI 1.05-1.40), with acceptable between-studies heterogeneity (I 2  < 50%). There was no association between thiazide diuretics, ACEi or ARB use and skin cancer risk. We found no evidence of publication bias affecting the results. Family doctors and clinicians should inform their patients about the increased risk of skin cancer associated with the use of CCB and β-blockers and instruct them to perform periodic skin self-examination. Further studies are warranted to elucidate the observed associations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF THE VADOSE ZONE IN MULTIMEDIA RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING APPLIED AT A NATIONAL SCALE: AN ANALYSIS OF BENZENE USING 3MRA

EPA Science Inventory

Evaluating uncertainty and parameter sensitivity in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-media constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. The challenge of examining ever more complex, integrated, higher-order models is a formidab...

Cyst fluid analysis in the differential diagnosis of pancreatic cystic lesions: a pooled analysis.

PubMed

van der Waaij, Laurens A; van Dullemen, Hendrik M; Porte, Robert J

2005-09-01

Pancreatic cystic tumors commonly include serous cystadenoma (SCA), mucinous cystadenoma (MCA), and mucinous cystadenocarcinoma (MCAC). A differential diagnosis with pseudocysts (PC) can be difficult. Radiologic criteria are not reliable. The objective of the study is to investigate the value of cyst fluid analysis in the differential diagnosis of benign (SCA, PC) vs. premalignant or malignant (MCA, MCAC) lesions. A search in PubMed was performed with the search terms cyst, pancrea, and fluid. Articles about cyst fluid analysis of pancreatic lesions that contained the individual data of at least 7 patients were included in the study. Data of all individual patients were combined and were plotted in scatter grams. Cutoff levels were determined. Twelve studies were included, which comprised data of 450 patients. Cysts with an amylase concentration <250 U/L were SCA, MCA, or MCAC (sensitivity 44%, specificity 98%) and, thus, virtually excluded PC. A carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) <5 ng/mL suggested a SCA or PC (sensitivity 50%, specificity 95%). A CEA >800 ng/mL strongly suggested MCA or MCAC (sensitivity 48%, specificity 98%). A carbohydrate-associated antigen (CA) 19-9 <37 U/mL strongly suggested PC or SCA (sensitivity 19%, specificity 98%). Cytologic examination revealed malignant cells in 48% of MCAC (n = 111). Most pancreatic cystic tumors should be resected without the need for cyst fluid analysis. However, in asymptomatic patients, in patients with an increased surgical risk, and, in patients in whom there is a diagnostic uncertainty about the presence of a PC, cyst fluid analysis helps to determine the optimal therapeutic strategy.

Phase angle assessment by bioelectrical impedance analysis and its predictive value for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

PubMed

Varan, Hacer Dogan; Bolayir, Basak; Kara, Ozgur; Arik, Gunes; Kizilarslanoglu, Muhammet Cemal; Kilic, Mustafa Kemal; Sumer, Fatih; Kuyumcu, Mehmet Emin; Yesil, Yusuf; Yavuz, Burcu Balam; Halil, Meltem; Cankurtaran, Mustafa

2016-12-01

Phase angle (PhA) value determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is an indicator of cell membrane damage and body cell mass. Recent studies have shown that low PhA value is associated with increased nutritional risk in various group of patients. However, there have been only a few studies performed globally assessing the relationship between nutritional risk and PhA in hospitalized geriatric patients. The aim of the study is to evaluate the predictive value of the PhA for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients. One hundred and twenty-two hospitalized geriatric patients were included in this cross-sectional study. Comprehensive geriatric assessment tests and BIA measurements were performed within the first 48 h after admission. Nutritional risk state of the patients was determined with NRS-2002. Phase angle values of the patients with malnutrition risk were compared with the patients that did not have the same risk. The independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk were determined. SPSS version 15 was utilized for the statistical analyzes. The patients with malnutrition risk had significantly lower phase angle values than the patients without malnutrition risk (p = 0.003). ROC curve analysis suggested that the optimum PhA cut-off point for malnutrition risk was 4.7° with 79.6 % sensitivity, 64.6 % specificity, 73.9 % positive predictive value, and 73.9 % negative predictive value. BMI, prealbumin, PhA, and Mini Mental State Examination Test scores were the independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk. PhA can be a useful, independent indicator for predicting malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

Aspirin for acute stroke of unknown etiology in resource-limited settings: a decision analysis.

PubMed

Berkowitz, Aaron L; Westover, M Brandon; Bianchi, Matt T; Chou, Sherry H-Y

2014-08-26

To analyze the potential impact of aspirin on outcome at hospital discharge after acute stroke in resource-limited settings without access to neuroimaging to distinguish ischemic stroke from intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). A decision analysis was conducted to evaluate aspirin use in all patients with acute stroke of unknown type for the duration of initial hospitalization. Data were obtained from the International Stroke Trial and Chinese Acute Stroke Trial. Predicted in-hospital mortality and stroke recurrence risk were determined across the worldwide reported range of the proportion of strokes caused by ICH. Sensitivity analyses were performed on aspirin-associated relative risks in patients with ICH. At the highest reported proportion of strokes due to ICH from a large epidemiologic study (34% in sub-Saharan Africa), aspirin initiation after acute stroke of undetermined etiology is predicted to reduce in-hospital mortality (from 85/1,000 without treatment to 81/1,000 with treatment), in-hospital stroke recurrence (58/1,000 to 50/1,000), and combined risk of in-hospital mortality or stroke recurrence (127/1,000 to 114/1,000). Benefits of aspirin therapy remained in sensitivity analyses across a range of plausible parameter estimates for relative risks associated with aspirin initiation after ICH. Aspirin treatment for the period of initial hospitalization after acute stroke of undetermined etiology is predicted to decrease acute stroke-related mortality and in-hospital stroke recurrence even at the highest reported proportion of acute strokes due to ICH. In the absence of clinical trials to test this approach empirically, clinical decisions require patient-specific evaluation of risks and benefits of aspirin in this context. © 2014 American Academy of Neurology.

Intussusception after monovalent rotavirus vaccine-United States, Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), 2008-2014.

PubMed

Haber, Penina; Parashar, Umesh D; Haber, Michael; DeStefano, Frank

2015-09-11

In 2006 and 2008, two new rotavirus vaccines (RotaTeq [RV5] and Rotarix [RV1]) were introduced in the United States. US data on intussusception have been mostly related to RV5, with limited data on RV1. We assessed intussusception events following RV1 reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a US national passive surveillance system, during February 2008-December 2014. We conducted a self-controlled risk interval analysis using Poisson regression to estimate the daily reporting ratio (DRR) of intussusception after the first 2 doses of RV1 comparing average daily reports 3-6 versus 0-2 days after vaccination. We calculated the excess risk of intussusception per 100,000 vaccinations based on DRRs and background rates of intussusception. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess effects of differential reporting completeness and inaccuracy of baseline rates. VAERS received 108 confirmed insusceptible reports after RV1. A significant clustering was observed on days 3-8 after does1 (p=0.001) and days 2-7 after dose 2 (p=0.001). The DRR comparing the 3-6 day and the 0-2 day periods after RV1 dose 1 was 7.5 (95% CI=2.3, 24.6), translating to an excess risk of 1.6 (95% CI=0.3, 5.8) per 100,000 vaccinations. The DRR was elevated but not significant after dose 2 (2.4 [95% CI=0.8,7.5]). The excess risk ranged from 1.2 to 2.8 per 100,000 in sensitivity analysis. We observed a significant increased risk of intussusception 3-6 days after dose 1 of RV1. The estimated small number of intussusception cases attributable to RV1 is outweighed by the benefits of rotavirus vaccination. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Potential Cost-Effectiveness of Ambulatory Cardiac Rhythm Monitoring After Cryptogenic Stroke.

PubMed

Yong, Jean Hai Ein; Thavorn, Kednapa; Hoch, Jeffrey S; Mamdani, Muhammad; Thorpe, Kevin E; Dorian, Paul; Sharma, Mike; Laupacis, Andreas; Gladstone, David J

2016-09-01

Prolonged ambulatory ECG monitoring after cryptogenic stroke improves detection of covert atrial fibrillation, but its long-term cost-effectiveness is uncertain. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of noninvasive ECG monitoring in patients aged ≥55 years after a recent cryptogenic stroke and negative 24-hour ECG. A Markov model used observed rates of atrial fibrillation detection and anticoagulation from a randomized controlled trial (EMBRACE) and the published literature to predict lifetime costs and effectiveness (ischemic strokes, hemorrhages, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) for 30-day ECG (primary analysis) and 7-day or 14-day ECG (secondary analysis), when compared with a repeat 24-hour ECG. Prolonged ECG monitoring (7, 14, or 30 days) was predicted to prevent more ischemic strokes, decrease mortality, and improve QALYs. If anticoagulation reduced stroke risk by 50%, 30-day ECG (at a cost of USD $447) would be highly cost-effective ($2000 per QALY gained) for patients with a 4.5% annual ischemic stroke recurrence risk. Cost-effectiveness was sensitive to stroke recurrence risk and anticoagulant effectiveness, which remain uncertain, especially at higher costs of monitoring. Shorter duration (7 or 14 days) monitoring was cost saving and more effective than an additional 24-hour ECG; its cost-effectiveness was less sensitive to changes in ischemic stroke risk and treatment effect. After a cryptogenic stroke, 30-day ECG monitoring is likely cost-effective for preventing recurrent strokes; 14-day monitoring is an attractive value alternative, especially for lower risk patients. These results strengthen emerging recommendations for prolonged ECG monitoring in secondary stroke prevention. Cost-effectiveness in practice will depend on careful patient selection. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

2015-07-01

The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable shoreline risk levels from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - Portuguese Continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time. Shoreline risks can be computed in real-time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns, "hot spots" or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real time risk levels can be used in the prioritization of individual ships, geographical areas, strategic tug positioning and implementation of dynamic risk-based vessel traffic monitoring.

Relationship between anthropometric factors, radiation exposure, and colon cancer incidence in the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors.

PubMed

Semmens, Erin O; Kopecky, Kenneth J; Grant, Eric; Mathes, Robert W; Nishi, Nobuo; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Moriwaki, Hiroko; Sakata, Ritsu; Soda, Midori; Kasagi, Fumiyoshi; Yamada, Michiko; Fujiwara, Saeko; Akahoshi, Masazumi; Davis, Scott; Kodama, Kazunori; Li, Christopher I

2013-01-01

We examined colon cancer risk in atomic bomb survivors to investigate whether excess body weight after the bombings alters sensitivity to radiation effects. Of the 56,064 Japanese atomic bomb survivors with follow-up through 2002 with self-reported anthropometric data obtained from periodic mail surveys, 1,142 were diagnosed with colon cancer. We evaluated the influence of body mass index (BMI) and height on radiation-associated colon cancer risk using Poisson regression. We observed a similar linear dose-response relationship for the 56,064 subjects included in our analysis and the entire cohort of Japanese atomic bomb survivors [excess relative risk (ERR) per Gray (Gy) = 0.53, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.25-0.86]. Elevation in earliest reported BMI, BMI reported closest to colon cancer diagnosis, and time-varying BMI were associated with an elevated risk of colon cancer [relative risk (RR) per 5 kg/m(2) increase in BMI = 1.14, 95 % CI 1.03-1.26; RR = 1.16, 95 % CI 1.05-1.27; and RR = 1.15, 95 % CI 1.04-1.27, respectively]. Height was not significantly related to colon cancer risk. Inclusion of anthropometric variables in models had little impact on radiation risk estimates, and there was no evidence that sensitivity to the effect of radiation on colon cancer risk depended on BMI. Radiation exposure and BMI are both risk factors for colon cancer. BMI at various times after exposure to the atomic bombings does not significantly influence the relationship between radiation dose and colon cancer risk, suggesting that BMI and radiation impact colon cancer risk independently of each other.

Fragment-based prediction of skin sensitization using recursive partitioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Jing; Zheng, Mingyue; Wang, Yong; Shen, Qiancheng; Luo, Xiaomin; Jiang, Hualiang; Chen, Kaixian

2011-09-01

Skin sensitization is an important toxic endpoint in the risk assessment of chemicals. In this paper, structure-activity relationships analysis was performed on the skin sensitization potential of 357 compounds with local lymph node assay data. Structural fragments were extracted by GASTON (GrAph/Sequence/Tree extractiON) from the training set. Eight fragments with accuracy significantly higher than 0.73 ( p < 0.1) were retained to make up an indicator descriptor fragment. The fragment descriptor and eight other physicochemical descriptors closely related to the endpoint were calculated to construct the recursive partitioning tree (RP tree) for classification. The balanced accuracy of the training set, test set I, and test set II in the leave-one-out model were 0.846, 0.800, and 0.809, respectively. The results highlight that fragment-based RP tree is a preferable method for identifying skin sensitizers. Moreover, the selected fragments provide useful structural information for exploring sensitization mechanisms, and RP tree creates a graphic tree to identify the most important properties associated with skin sensitization. They can provide some guidance for designing of drugs with lower sensitization level.

A hydrogeologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to climate warming in the Pacific Northwest, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safeeq, M.; Grant, G. E.; Lewis, S. L.; Kramer, M. G.; Staab, B.

2014-09-01

Summer streamflows in the Pacific Northwest are largely derived from melting snow and groundwater discharge. As the climate warms, diminishing snowpack and earlier snowmelt will cause reductions in summer streamflow. Most regional-scale assessments of climate change impacts on streamflow use downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from general circulation models (GCMs) coupled with large-scale hydrologic models. Here we develop and apply an analytical hydrogeologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to a change in the timing and magnitude of recharge in a spatially explicit fashion. In particular, we incorporate the role of deep groundwater, which large-scale hydrologic models generally fail to capture, into streamflow sensitivity assessments. We validate our analytical streamflow sensitivities against two empirical measures of sensitivity derived using historical observations of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow from 217 watersheds. In general, empirically and analytically derived streamflow sensitivity values correspond. Although the selected watersheds cover a range of hydrologic regimes (e.g., rain-dominated, mixture of rain and snow, and snow-dominated), sensitivity validation was primarily driven by the snow-dominated watersheds, which are subjected to a wider range of change in recharge timing and magnitude as a result of increased temperature. Overall, two patterns emerge from this analysis: first, areas with high streamflow sensitivity also have higher summer streamflows as compared to low-sensitivity areas. Second, the level of sensitivity and spatial extent of highly sensitive areas diminishes over time as the summer progresses. Results of this analysis point to a robust, practical, and scalable approach that can help assess risk at the landscape scale, complement the downscaling approach, be applied to any climate scenario of interest, and provide a framework to assist land and water managers in adapting to an uncertain and potentially challenging future.

Risk-based planning analysis for a single levee

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Rui; Jachens, Elizabeth; Lund, Jay

2016-04-01

Traditional risk-based analysis for levee planning focuses primarily on overtopping failure. Although many levees fail before overtopping, few planning studies explicitly include intermediate geotechnical failures in flood risk analysis. This study develops a risk-based model for two simplified levee failure modes: overtopping failure and overall intermediate geotechnical failure from through-seepage, determined by the levee cross section represented by levee height and crown width. Overtopping failure is based only on water level and levee height, while through-seepage failure depends on many geotechnical factors as well, mathematically represented here as a function of levee crown width using levee fragility curves developed from professional judgment or analysis. These levee planning decisions are optimized to minimize the annual expected total cost, which sums expected (residual) annual flood damage and annualized construction costs. Applicability of this optimization approach to planning new levees or upgrading existing levees is demonstrated preliminarily for a levee on a small river protecting agricultural land, and a major levee on a large river protecting a more valuable urban area. Optimized results show higher likelihood of intermediate geotechnical failure than overtopping failure. The effects of uncertainty in levee fragility curves, economic damage potential, construction costs, and hydrology (changing climate) are explored. Optimal levee crown width is more sensitive to these uncertainties than height, while the derived general principles and guidelines for risk-based optimal levee planning remain the same.

The assessment of human health impact caused by industrial and civil activities in the Pace Valley of Messina.

PubMed

Morra, P; Lisi, R; Spadoni, G; Maschio, G

2009-06-01

The impact of industrial and civil activities on an agricultural and residential area is presented in a detailed and global analysis. The examined area is the Pace river valley situated in the northern zone of Messina (Italy). The sources of pollution present in the area are: a Municipal Solid Waste Incinerator operating since 1979, a disused urban solid waste landfill which was used for 30 years, an urban solid waste treatment facility with heavy vehicles traffic, and two open pits for the production of bitumen. Large quantities of toxic, carcinogenic substances and criteria pollutants are released into the environment and represent potential hazards to human health. The analysis is performed using the EHHRA-GIS tool which employs an integrated, multimedia, multi-exposure pathways and multi-receptor risk assessment model that is able to manage all the steps which constitute the human health risk analysis in a georeferenced structure. The transport of pollutants in different environmental media is assessed applying models (AERMOD, GMS, CALINE) that take into account the particular three-dimensional morphology of the terrain. The results obtained, combined with a probabilistic risk assessment and a sensitivity analysis of calculation parameters, are a comprehensive assessment of the total human health risk in the area. Finally human health risks caused by toxic and carcinogenic substances are compared with acceptable legal limits in order to support environmental managers' decisions.

The cut-off values of anthropometric variables for predicting mild cognitive impairment in Malaysian older adults: a large population based cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Won, Huiloo; Abdul, Manaf Zahara; Mat Ludin, Arimi Fitri; Omar, Mohd Azahadi; Razali, Rosdinom; Shahar, Suzana

2017-01-01

Purpose Older adults are at risk of mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and simple anthropometric measurements can be used to screen for this condition. Thus, the aim of this study was to explore the cut-off values of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) for predicting the risk of MCI in older Malaysian adults. Methods A total of 2,240 Malaysian older adults aged ≥60 years were recruited using multistage random sampling in a population based cross-sectional study. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the cut-off values of BMI and WC with optimum sensitivity and specificity for the detection of MCI. Age, gender, years of education, smoking habit, alcohol consumption, depression, and medical conditions were used as confounding factors in this analysis. Results A BMI cut-off value of 26 kg/m2 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.725; sensitivity 90.5%; specificity 38.8%) was appropriate in identifying the risk of getting MCI in both men and women. The optimum WC cut-offs for likelihood of MCI were 90 cm (AUC 0.745; sensitivity 78.0%; specificity 59.8%) for men and 82 cm (AUC 0.714; sensitivity 84.3%; specificity 49.7%) for women. The optimum calf circumference (CC) cut-off values for identifying MCI were 29 cm (AUC 0.731; sensitivity 72.6%; specificity 61.1%) for men and 26 cm (AUC 0.598; sensitivity 79.1%; specificity 45.3%) for women. Conclusion The cut-off values could be advocated and used as part of the screening of MCI among older Malaysian adults. There is a need to further determine the predictive values of these cut-off points on outcomes through longitudinal study design. PMID:28223785

Health Heritage© a web-based tool for the collection and assessment of family health history: initial user experience and analytic validity.

PubMed

Cohn, W F; Ropka, M E; Pelletier, S L; Barrett, J R; Kinzie, M B; Harrison, M B; Liu, Z; Miesfeldt, S; Tucker, A L; Worrall, B B; Gibson, J; Mullins, I M; Elward, K S; Franko, J; Guterbock, T M; Knaus, W A

2010-01-01

A detailed family health history is currently the most potentially useful tool for diagnosis and risk assessment in clinical genetics. We developed and evaluated the usability and analytic validity of a patient-driven web-based family health history collection and analysis tool. Health Heritage(©) guides users through the collection of their family health history by relative, generates a pedigree, completes risk assessment, stratification, and recommendations for 89 conditions. We compared the performance of Health Heritage to that of Usual Care using a nonrandomized cohort trial of 109 volunteers. We contrasted the completeness and sensitivity of family health history collection and risk assessments derived from Health Heritage and Usual Care to those obtained by genetic counselors and genetic assessment teams. Nearly half (42%) of the Health Heritage participants reported discovery of health risks; 63% found the information easy to understand and 56% indicated it would change their health behavior. Health Heritage consistently outperformed Usual Care in the completeness and accuracy of family health history collection, identifying 60% of the elevated risk conditions specified by the genetic team versus 24% identified by Usual Care. Health Heritage also had greater sensitivity than Usual Care when comparing the identification of risks. These results suggest a strong role for automated family health history collection and risk assessment and underscore the potential of these data to serve as the foundation for comprehensive, cost-effective personalized genomic medicine. Copyright © 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Quantitative assessment of the relationship between Fas/FasL genes polymorphisms and head and neck cancer risk.

PubMed

Zhang, Dan-Feng; Jiang, Guang-Bin; Qin, Chuan-Qi; Liu, De-Xi; Hu, Ya-Jun; Zhou, Juan; Niu, Yu-Ming

2018-02-01

Molecular epidemiological studies have demonstrated a closer association between Fas/FasL polymorphisms and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk, and the results of these published studies were inconsistent. We therefore performed this meta-analysis to explore the associations between Fas/FasL polymorphisms and HNC risk. Four online databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI, and Wanfang) were searched. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (95% CIs) were calculated to assess the association between Fas -670A>G, Fas -1377G>A, and FasL -844C>T polymorphisms and HNC risk. In addition, heterogeneity, accumulative/sensitivity analysis, and publication bias were conducted to check the statistical power. Overall, 9 related publications (20 independent case-control studies) involving 3179 patients and 4217 controls were identified. Significant association of protective effects was observed between FasL -844C>T polymorphism and HNC risk in codominant and dominant model models (CT vs CC: OR = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.79-1.00, P = .05, I = 38.3%, CT+TT vs CC: OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.79-0.98, P = .02, I = 35.8%). Furthermore, the similar protective effects were observed the subgroup analysis of in Asian population and population-based controls group. Our meta-analysis indicated that FasL -844C>T polymorphism plays a protective role against HNC development, but the Fas -670A>G and Fas -1377G>A polymorphisms maybe not associated with HNC risk.

Real-Time PCR in Clinical Microbiology: Applications for Routine Laboratory Testing

PubMed Central

Espy, M. J.; Uhl, J. R.; Sloan, L. M.; Buckwalter, S. P.; Jones, M. F.; Vetter, E. A.; Yao, J. D. C.; Wengenack, N. L.; Rosenblatt, J. E.; Cockerill, F. R.; Smith, T. F.

2006-01-01

Real-time PCR has revolutionized the way clinical microbiology laboratories diagnose many human microbial infections. This testing method combines PCR chemistry with fluorescent probe detection of amplified product in the same reaction vessel. In general, both PCR and amplified product detection are completed in an hour or less, which is considerably faster than conventional PCR detection methods. Real-time PCR assays provide sensitivity and specificity equivalent to that of conventional PCR combined with Southern blot analysis, and since amplification and detection steps are performed in the same closed vessel, the risk of releasing amplified nucleic acids into the environment is negligible. The combination of excellent sensitivity and specificity, low contamination risk, and speed has made real-time PCR technology an appealing alternative to culture- or immunoassay-based testing methods for diagnosing many infectious diseases. This review focuses on the application of real-time PCR in the clinical microbiology laboratory. PMID:16418529

High risk HPV testing following treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia.

PubMed

Molloy, M; Comer, R; Rogers, P; Dowling, M; Meskell, P; Asbury, K; O'Leary, M

2016-11-01

To determine the results of combined cytology and high-risk human papilloma virus (HR HPV) tests at 6 and 18 months postcolposcopy treatment at one Irish colposcopy centre. All women who attended the centre's colposcopy smear clinic for a co-test 6 months (initial test) posttreatment were included in the audit (n = 251). The results revealed negative HR HPV for 79 % (n = 198) of women tested 6 months after treatment and positive results for 21 % (n = 53). HR HPV testing was more sensitive than cytology and led to early detection of residual disease. No women with negative HR HPV had high-grade cytology. HR HPV is more sensitive than cytology for detection of persistent CIN. However, 19 women with positive HR HPV had normal colposcopy with no persistent CIN detected. A national cost-benefit analysis is recommended to determine the value of the second co-test.

Risk-Stratified Imputation in Survival Analysis

PubMed Central

Kennedy, Richard E.; Adragni, Kofi P.; Tiwari, Hemant K.; Voeks, Jenifer H.; Brott, Thomas G.; Howard, George

2013-01-01

Background Censoring that is dependent on covariates associated with survival can arise in randomized trials due to changes in recruitment and eligibility criteria to minimize withdrawals, potentially leading to biased treatment effect estimates. Imputation approaches have been proposed to address censoring in survival analysis; and while these approaches may provide unbiased estimates of treatment effects, imputation of a large number of outcomes may over- or underestimate the associated variance based on the imputation pool selected. Purpose We propose an improved method, risk-stratified imputation, as an alternative to address withdrawal related to the risk of events in the context of time-to-event analyses. Methods Our algorithm performs imputation from a pool of replacement subjects with similar values of both treatment and covariate(s) of interest, that is, from a risk-stratified sample. This stratification prior to imputation addresses the requirement of time-to-event analysis that censored observations are representative of all other observations in the risk group with similar exposure variables. We compared our risk-stratified imputation to case deletion and bootstrap imputation in a simulated dataset in which the covariate of interest (study withdrawal) was related to treatment. A motivating example from a recent clinical trial is also presented to demonstrate the utility of our method. Results In our simulations, risk-stratified imputation gives estimates of treatment effect comparable to bootstrap and auxiliary variable imputation while avoiding inaccuracies of the latter two in estimating the associated variance. Similar results were obtained in analysis of clinical trial data. Limitations Risk-stratified imputation has little advantage over other imputation methods when covariates of interest are not related to treatment, although its performance is superior when covariates are related to treatment. Risk-stratified imputation is intended for categorical covariates, and may be sensitive to the width of the matching window if continuous covariates are used. Conclusions The use of the risk-stratified imputation should facilitate the analysis of many clinical trials, in which one group has a higher withdrawal rate that is related to treatment. PMID:23818434

Risk-Sensitive Control of Pure Jump Process on Countable Space with Near Monotone Cost

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suresh Kumar, K., E-mail: suresh@math.iitb.ac.in; Pal, Chandan, E-mail: cpal@math.iitb.ac.in

2013-12-15

In this article, we study risk-sensitive control problem with controlled continuous time pure jump process on a countable space as state dynamics. We prove multiplicative dynamic programming principle, elliptic and parabolic Harnack’s inequalities. Using the multiplicative dynamic programing principle and the Harnack’s inequalities, we prove the existence and a characterization of optimal risk-sensitive control under the near monotone condition.

Engineered nanoconstructs for the multiplexed and sensitive detection of high-risk pathogens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Youngmin; Kim, Ji-Eun; Jeong, Yoon; Lee, Kwan Hong; Hwang, Jangsun; Hong, Jongwook; Park, Hansoo; Choi, Jonghoon

2016-01-01

Many countries categorize the causative agents of severe infectious diseases as high-risk pathogens. Given their extreme infectivity and potential to be used as biological weapons, a rapid and sensitive method for detection of high-risk pathogens (e.g., Bacillus anthracis, Francisella tularensis, Yersinia pestis, and Vaccinia virus) is highly desirable. Here, we report the construction of a novel detection platform comprising two units: (1) magnetic beads separately conjugated with multiple capturing antibodies against four different high-risk pathogens for simple and rapid isolation, and (2) genetically engineered apoferritin nanoparticles conjugated with multiple quantum dots and detection antibodies against four different high-risk pathogens for signal amplification. For each high-risk pathogen, we demonstrated at least 10-fold increase in sensitivity compared to traditional lateral flow devices that utilize enzyme-based detection methods. Multiplexed detection of high-risk pathogens in a sample was also successful by using the nanoconstructs harboring the dye molecules with fluorescence at different wavelengths. We ultimately envision the use of this novel nanoprobe detection platform in future applications that require highly sensitive on-site detection of high-risk pathogens.

Clinical efficacy and safety of denosumab in postmenopausal women with low bone mineral density and osteoporosis: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

von Keyserlingk, Camilla; Hopkins, Robert; Anastasilakis, Athanasios; Toulis, Konstantinos; Goeree, Ron; Tarride, Jean-Eric; Xie, Feng

2011-10-01

Clinical trials indicate that denosumab could be a potential treatment for postmenopausal osteoporosis. The objective of this meta-analysis was to assess the clinical efficacy and safety of offering denosumab to postmenopausal women with low bone mass. Data sources included MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) from inception to February 3, 2010 and bibliographies of reviews. Randomized controlled trials comparing the efficacy and safety of denosumab to placebo for treatment of low bone mass (low bone mineral density or osteoporosis) in postmenopausal women were selected. Two reviewers independently abstracted data on study general characteristics and outcomes. Review Manager 5.0 software was used for data syntheses and meta-analysis. The database search revealed 4 studies (comprising 8864 patients randomized) that met the inclusion criteria and contributed to some or all of the meta-analysis outcomes. Relative risk (95% CI) of fractures for the denosumab compared with placebo group was 0.58 (0.52 to 0.66); relative risk (95% CI) of serious adverse events was 1.33 (0.83 to 2.14); relative risk (95% CI) of serious adverse events related to infection was 2.10 (0.64 to 6.90); relative risk (95% CI) of neoplasm was 1.11 (0.91 to 1.36); relative risk (95% CI) of study discontinuation due to adverse events was 1.10 (0.83 to 1.47); and relative risk (95% CI) of death was 0.78 (0.57 to 1.06). Findings remained robust to sensitivity analyses. Our analysis found a significant reduction in relative fracture risk in the denosumab compared with the placebo group. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple Chemical Sensitivity

PubMed Central

Rossi, Sabrina; Pitidis, Alessio

2018-01-01

Objective: Systematic bibliography analysis of about the last 17 years on multiple chemical sensitivity (MCS) was carried out in order to detect new diagnostic and epidemiological evidence. The MCS is a complex syndrome that manifests as a result of exposure to a low level of various common contaminants. The etiology, diagnosis, and treatment are still debated among researchers. Method: Querying PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Cochrane library, both using some specific MESH terms combined with MESH subheadings and through free search, even by Google. Results: The studies were analyzed by verifying 1) the typology of study design; 2) criteria for case definition; 3) presence of attendances in the emergency departments and hospital admissions, and 4) analysis of the risk factors. Outlook: With this review, we give some general considerations and hypothesis for possible future research. PMID:29111991

A framework for risk assessment and decision-making strategies in dangerous good transportation.

PubMed

Fabiano, B; Currò, F; Palazzi, E; Pastorino, R

2002-07-01

The risk from dangerous goods transport by road and strategies for selecting road load/routes are faced in this paper, by developing an original site-oriented framework of general applicability at local level. A realistic evaluation of the frequency must take into account on one side inherent factors (e.g. tunnels, rail bridges, bend radii, slope, characteristics of neighborhood, etc.) on the other side factors correlated to the traffic conditions (e.g. dangerous goods trucks, etc.). Field data were collected on the selected highway, by systematic investigation, providing input data for a database reporting tendencies and intrinsic parameter/site-oriented statistics. The developed technique was applied to a pilot area, considering both the individual risk and societal risk and making reference to flammable and explosive scenarios. In this way, a risk assessment, sensitive to route features and population exposed, is proposed, so that the overall uncertainties in risk analysis can be lowered.

The HTA Risk Analysis Chart: Visualising the Need for and Potential Value of Managed Entry Agreements in Health Technology Assessment.

PubMed

Grimm, Sabine Elisabeth; Strong, Mark; Brennan, Alan; Wailoo, Allan J

2017-12-01

Recent changes to the regulatory landscape of pharmaceuticals may sometimes require reimbursement authorities to issue guidance on technologies that have a less mature evidence base. Decision makers need to be aware of risks associated with such health technology assessment (HTA) decisions and the potential to manage this risk through managed entry agreements (MEAs). This work develops methods for quantifying risk associated with specific MEAs and for clearly communicating this to decision makers. We develop the 'HTA risk analysis chart', in which we present the payer strategy and uncertainty burden (P-SUB) as a measure of overall risk. The P-SUB consists of the payer uncertainty burden (PUB), the risk stemming from decision uncertainty as to which is the truly optimal technology from the relevant set of technologies, and the payer strategy burden (PSB), the additional risk of approving a technology that is not expected to be optimal. We demonstrate the approach using three recent technology appraisals from the UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), each of which considered a price-based MEA. The HTA risk analysis chart was calculated using results from standard probabilistic sensitivity analyses. In all three HTAs, the new interventions were associated with substantial risk as measured by the P-SUB. For one of these technologies, the P-SUB was reduced to zero with the proposed price reduction, making this intervention cost effective with near complete certainty. For the other two, the risk reduced substantially with a much reduced PSB and a slightly increased PUB. The HTA risk analysis chart shows the risk that the healthcare payer incurs under unresolved decision uncertainty and when considering recommending a technology that is not expected to be optimal given current evidence. This allows the simultaneous consideration of financial and data-collection MEA schemes in an easily understood format. The use of HTA risk analysis charts will help to ensure that MEAs are considered within a standard utility-maximising health economic decision-making framework.

Affective and cognitive factors influencing sensitivity to probabilistic information.

PubMed

Tyszka, Tadeusz; Sawicki, Przemyslaw

2011-11-01

In study 1 different groups of female students were randomly assigned to one of four probabilistic information formats. Five different levels of probability of a genetic disease in an unborn child were presented to participants (within-subject factor). After the presentation of the probability level, participants were requested to indicate the acceptable level of pain they would tolerate to avoid the disease (in their unborn child), their subjective evaluation of the disease risk, and their subjective evaluation of being worried by this risk. The results of study 1 confirmed the hypothesis that an experience-based probability format decreases the subjective sense of worry about the disease, thus, presumably, weakening the tendency to overrate the probability of rare events. Study 2 showed that for the emotionally laden stimuli, the experience-based probability format resulted in higher sensitivity to probability variations than other formats of probabilistic information. These advantages of the experience-based probability format are interpreted in terms of two systems of information processing: the rational deliberative versus the affective experiential and the principle of stimulus-response compatibility. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

C-reactive protein in relation to early atherosclerosis and periodontitis.

PubMed

Yakob, Maha; Meurman, Jukka H; Jogestrand, Tomas; Nowak, Jacek; Söder, Per-Östen; Söder, Birgitta

2012-02-01

Periodontitis may affect atherosclerosis via the chronic inflammation. We investigated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) in relation to early vascular atherosclerotic changes in non-symptomatic subjects with and without long-term periodontitis. Carotid ultrasonography with calculation of common carotid artery intima-media area (cIMA) was performed, and hsCRP and atherosclerosis risk factors were analysed in randomly chosen 93 patients with periodontitis and 41 controls. The relationship between hsCRP, cIMA and atherosclerosis risk factors was evaluated with multiple logistic regression analysis. Women displayed lower hsCRP (p < 0.05) and higher serum HDL (p < 0.001) than men. In all patients with periodontitis, cIMA values were higher than in controls. Periodontitis appeared to be a major predictor for increased cIMA (odds ratio, 3.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-12.26). Neither of these factors was significantly associated with hsCRP which thus appeared not sensitive enough to be a marker for periodontitis or atherosclerosis. Hence, irrespective of low hsCRP levels, periodontitis appeared to increase the risk for atherosclerosis.

An exploration of mortality risk factors in non-severe pneumonia in children using clinical data from Kenya.

PubMed

Tuti, Timothy; Agweyu, Ambrose; Mwaniki, Paul; Peek, Niels; English, Mike

2017-11-13

Childhood pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years old. Recent updates to World Health Organization pneumonia guidelines recommend outpatient care for a population of children previously classified as high risk. This revision has been challenged by policymakers in Africa, where mortality related to pneumonia is higher than in other regions and often complicated by comorbidities. This study aimed to identify factors that best discriminate inpatient mortality risk in non-severe pneumonia and explore whether these factors offer any added benefit over the current criteria used to identify children with pneumonia requiring inpatient care. We undertook a retrospective cohort study of children aged 2-59 months admitted with a clinical diagnosis of pneumonia at 14 public hospitals in Kenya between February 2014 and February 2016. Using machine learning techniques, we analysed whether clinical characteristics and common comorbidities increased the risk of inpatient mortality for non-severe pneumonia. The topmost risk factors were subjected to decision curve analysis to explore if using them as admission criteria had any net benefit above the current criteria. Out of 16,162 children admitted with pneumonia during the study period, 10,687 were eligible for subsequent analysis. Inpatient mortality within this non-severe group was 252/10,687 (2.36%). Models demonstrated moderately good performance; the partial least squares discriminant analysis model had higher sensitivity for predicting mortality in comparison to logistic regression. Elevated respiratory rate (≥70 bpm), age 2-11 months and weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) < -3SD were highly discriminative of mortality. These factors ranked consistently across the different models. For a risk threshold probability of 7-14%, there is a net benefit to admitting the patient sub-populations with these features as additional criteria alongside those currently used to classify severe pneumonia. Of the population studied, 70.54% met at least one of these criteria. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the overall results were not significantly affected by variations in pneumonia severity classification criteria. Children with non-severe pneumonia aged 2-11 months or with respiratory rate ≥ 70 bpm or very low WAZ experience risks of inpatient mortality comparable to severe pneumonia. Inpatient care is warranted in these high-risk groups of children.

Benefit, risk and cost of new oral anticoagulants and warfarin in atrial fibrillation; A multicriteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Mendoza-Sanchez, Jose; Silva, Federico; Rangel, Lady; Jaramillo, Linda; Mendoza, Leidy; Garzon, Jenny; Quiroga, Andrea

2018-01-01

Warfarin and new oral anticoagulants are effective in reducing stroke in atrial fibrillation; however, the benefits and risks rates in clinical trials show heterogeneity for each anticoagulant, and is unknown the cost influence on a model considering most of the treatment consequences. We designed a benefit-risk and cost assessment of oral anticoagulants. We followed the roadmap proposed by IMI-PROTECT and the considerations of emerged good practice to perform Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The roadmap defines the following steps: (1) planning, (2) evidence gathering and data preparation, (3) analyses, (4) explorations, and (5) conclusions. We defined two reference points (0-100) to allocate numerical values for scores and weights, and used an analogue numeric scale to assess physicians' preferences. As benefits of the anticoagulant therapy, we included reductions in stroke and all-cause mortality; intracranial haemorrhage, gastrointestinal haemorrhage, minor bleeding and myocardial infarction were considered risks. We also made an estimation of the annual drug cost per person. The scores were: Apixaban 33, Dabigatrán 25, warfarin 18 and Rivaroxaban 14 this score reveals the most preferred up to the less preferred option, considering the benefit-risk ratio and drug costs altogether. The relative model weights were: 51.1% for risks, 40.4% for benefits and 8.5% for cost. The sensitivity analysis confirms the model robustness. From this analysis, apixaban should be considered as the preferred anticoagulant option -due to a better benefit-risk balance and a minor cost influence- followed by dabigatran, warfarin and rivaroxaban.

Sweetened carbonated beverage consumption and cancer risk: meta-analysis and review.

PubMed

Boyle, Peter; Koechlin, Alice; Autier, Philippe

2014-09-01

There is speculation on an association between sweetened, carbonated beverage consumption and cancer risk. This study aimed to examine this issue. Over 50 independent estimates of risk were available, 11 for colas specifically. A random-effects meta-analysis was carried out with tests for publication bias performed as well as Higgins and Thompson's I measure of the percentage of heterogeneity between studies that could not be explained by chance. Over all the different sites of cancer, the summary relative risk (SRR), when all 55 independent estimates were considered together, was SRR=1.03 [95% confidence interval (0.96; 1.11)]. When individual cancer sites were considered, there was no significant increase or decrease in the meta-analysis estimate of risk of cancer of the pancreas, bladder, kidney, squamous cell or adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus, colon, gastric cardia, gastric noncardia, prostate, breast, larynx and ovary or of the oral cavity, pharynx or glioma. There was no evidence in a sensitivity analysis from those studies that reported results separately for colas of an associated risk of pancreas cancer [SRR=1.00, 95% confidence interval (0.61; 1.65)]. The results for all other forms of cancers were considerably hampered by poor methodology and small numbers of studies (mainly one report on each cancer site studied). Overall, the findings are reassuring in terms of the association between soft drinks, including colas, and cancer risk, although the quality of many of the studies is quite poor by acceptable, modern standards and no study has been carried out with use of carbonated beverages as a primary hypothesis.

Real-data comparison of data mining methods in prediction of diabetes in iran.

PubMed

Tapak, Lily; Mahjub, Hossein; Hamidi, Omid; Poorolajal, Jalal

2013-09-01

Diabetes is one of the most common non-communicable diseases in developing countries. Early screening and diagnosis play an important role in effective prevention strategies. This study compared two traditional classification methods (logistic regression and Fisher linear discriminant analysis) and four machine-learning classifiers (neural networks, support vector machines, fuzzy c-mean, and random forests) to classify persons with and without diabetes. The data set used in this study included 6,500 subjects from the Iranian national non-communicable diseases risk factors surveillance obtained through a cross-sectional survey. The obtained sample was based on cluster sampling of the Iran population which was conducted in 2005-2009 to assess the prevalence of major non-communicable disease risk factors. Ten risk factors that are commonly associated with diabetes were selected to compare the performance of six classifiers in terms of sensitivity, specificity, total accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve criteria. Support vector machines showed the highest total accuracy (0.986) as well as area under the ROC (0.979). Also, this method showed high specificity (1.000) and sensitivity (0.820). All other methods produced total accuracy of more than 85%, but for all methods, the sensitivity values were very low (less than 0.350). The results of this study indicate that, in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and overall classification accuracy, the support vector machine model ranks first among all the classifiers tested in the prediction of diabetes. Therefore, this approach is a promising classifier for predicting diabetes, and it should be further investigated for the prediction of other diseases.

Strategies to diagnose ovarian cancer: new evidence from phase 3 of the multicentre international IOTA study

PubMed Central

Testa, A; Kaijser, J; Wynants, L; Fischerova, D; Van Holsbeke, C; Franchi, D; Savelli, L; Epstein, E; Czekierdowski, A; Guerriero, S; Fruscio, R; Leone, F P G; Vergote, I; Bourne, T; Valentin, L; Van Calster, B; Timmerman, D

2014-01-01

Background: To compare different ultrasound-based international ovarian tumour analysis (IOTA) strategies and risk of malignancy index (RMI) for ovarian cancer diagnosis using a meta-analysis approach of centre-specific data from IOTA3. Methods: This prospective multicentre diagnostic accuracy study included 2403 patients with 1423 benign and 980 malignant adnexal masses from 2009 until 2012. All patients underwent standardised transvaginal ultrasonography. Test performance of RMI, subjective assessment (SA) of ultrasound findings, two IOTA risk models (LR1 and LR2), and strategies involving combinations of IOTA simple rules (SRs), simple descriptors (SDs) and LR2 with and without SA was estimated using a meta-analysis approach. Reference standard was histology after surgery. Results: The areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves of LR1, LR2, SA and RMI were 0.930 (0.917–0.942), 0.918 (0.905–0.930), 0.914 (0.886–0.936) and 0.875 (0.853–0.894). Diagnostic one-step and two-step strategies using LR1, LR2, SR and SD achieved summary estimates for sensitivity 90–96%, specificity 74–79% and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) 32.8–50.5. Adding SA when IOTA methods yielded equivocal results improved performance (DOR 57.6–75.7). Risk of Malignancy Index had sensitivity 67%, specificity 91% and DOR 17.5. Conclusions: This study shows all IOTA strategies had excellent diagnostic performance in comparison with RMI. The IOTA strategy chosen may be determined by clinical preference. PMID:24937676

Should radon be reduced in homes? A cost-effect analysis.

PubMed

Stigum, Hein; Strand, Terje; Magnus, Per

2003-02-01

Radon is a radioactive gas that may leak into buildings from the ground. Radon exposure is a risk factor for lung cancer. An intervention against radon exposure in homes may consist of locating homes with high radon exposure (above 200 Bq m(-3)) and improving these, and protecting future houses. The purpose of this paper is to calculate the costs and the effects of this intervention. We performed a cost-effect analysis from the perspective of the society, followed by an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. The distribution of radon levels in Norwegian homes is lognormal with mean = 74.5 Bq m(-3), and 7.6% above 200 Bq m(-3). The preventable attributable fraction of radon on lung cancer was 3.8% (95% uncertainty interval: 0.6%, 8.3%). In cumulative present values the intervention would cost $238 (145, 310) million and save 892 (133, 1981) lives; each life saved costs $0.27 (0.09, 0.9) million. The cost-effect ratio was sensitive to the radon risk, the radon exposure distribution, and the latency period of lung cancer. Together these three parameters explained 90% of the variation in the cost-effect ratio. The uncertainty in the estimated cost per life is large, mainly due to uncertainty in the risk of lung cancer from radon. Based on estimates from road construction, the Norwegian society has been willing to pay $1 million to save a life. This is above the upper uncertainty limit of the cost per life. The intervention against radon in homes, therefore, seems justifiable.

Refractive Errors and Concomitant Strabismus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tang, Shu Min; Chan, Rachel Y T; Bin Lin, Shi; Rong, Shi Song; Lau, Henry H W; Lau, Winnie W Y; Yip, Wilson W K; Chen, Li Jia; Ko, Simon T C; Yam, Jason C S

2016-10-12

This systematic review and meta-analysis is to evaluate the risk of development of concomitant strabismus due to refractive errors. Eligible studies published from 1946 to April 1, 2016 were identified from MEDLINE and EMBASE that evaluated any kinds of refractive errors (myopia, hyperopia, astigmatism and anisometropia) as an independent factor for concomitant exotropia and concomitant esotropia. Totally 5065 published records were retrieved for screening, 157 of them eligible for detailed evaluation. Finally 7 population-based studies involving 23,541 study subjects met our criteria for meta-analysis. The combined OR showed that myopia was a risk factor for exotropia (OR: 5.23, P = 0.0001). We found hyperopia had a dose-related effect for esotropia (OR for a spherical equivalent [SE] of 2-3 diopters [D]: 10.16, P = 0.01; OR for an SE of 3-4D: 17.83, P < 0.0001; OR for an SE of 4-5D: 41.01, P < 0.0001; OR for an SE of ≥5D: 162.68, P < 0.0001). Sensitivity analysis indicated our results were robust. Results of this study confirmed myopia as a risk for concomitant exotropia and identified a dose-related effect for hyperopia as a risk of concomitant esotropia.

Refractive Errors and Concomitant Strabismus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Tang, Shu Min; Chan, Rachel Y. T.; Bin Lin, Shi; Rong, Shi Song; Lau, Henry H. W.; Lau, Winnie W. Y.; Yip, Wilson W. K.; Chen, Li Jia; Ko, Simon T. C.; Yam, Jason C. S.

2016-01-01

This systematic review and meta-analysis is to evaluate the risk of development of concomitant strabismus due to refractive errors. Eligible studies published from 1946 to April 1, 2016 were identified from MEDLINE and EMBASE that evaluated any kinds of refractive errors (myopia, hyperopia, astigmatism and anisometropia) as an independent factor for concomitant exotropia and concomitant esotropia. Totally 5065 published records were retrieved for screening, 157 of them eligible for detailed evaluation. Finally 7 population-based studies involving 23,541 study subjects met our criteria for meta-analysis. The combined OR showed that myopia was a risk factor for exotropia (OR: 5.23, P = 0.0001). We found hyperopia had a dose-related effect for esotropia (OR for a spherical equivalent [SE] of 2–3 diopters [D]: 10.16, P = 0.01; OR for an SE of 3-4D: 17.83, P < 0.0001; OR for an SE of 4-5D: 41.01, P < 0.0001; OR for an SE of ≥5D: 162.68, P < 0.0001). Sensitivity analysis indicated our results were robust. Results of this study confirmed myopia as a risk for concomitant exotropia and identified a dose-related effect for hyperopia as a risk of concomitant esotropia. PMID:27731389

Contour plot assessment of existing meta-analyses confirms robust association of statin use and acute kidney injury risk.

PubMed

Chevance, Aurélie; Schuster, Tibor; Steele, Russell; Ternès, Nils; Platt, Robert W

2015-10-01

Robustness of an existing meta-analysis can justify decisions on whether to conduct an additional study addressing the same research question. We illustrate the graphical assessment of the potential impact of an additional study on an existing meta-analysis using published data on statin use and the risk of acute kidney injury. A previously proposed graphical augmentation approach is used to assess the sensitivity of the current test and heterogeneity statistics extracted from existing meta-analysis data. In addition, we extended the graphical augmentation approach to assess potential changes in the pooled effect estimate after updating a current meta-analysis and applied the three graphical contour definitions to data from meta-analyses on statin use and acute kidney injury risk. In the considered example data, the pooled effect estimates and heterogeneity indices demonstrated to be considerably robust to the addition of a future study. Supportingly, for some previously inconclusive meta-analyses, a study update might yield statistically significant kidney injury risk increase associated with higher statin exposure. The illustrated contour approach should become a standard tool for the assessment of the robustness of meta-analyses. It can guide decisions on whether to conduct additional studies addressing a relevant research question. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increased intake of vegetables, but not fruits, may be associated with reduced risk of hip fracture: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Luo, Si yang; Li, Yan; Luo, Hong; Yin, Xin hai; Lin, Du ren; Zhao, Ke; Huang, Guang lei; Song, Ju kun

2016-01-25

Association between dietary intake of vegetables and fruits and risk of hip fracture has been reported for many years. However, the findings remain inconclusive. We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between intake of vegetables and fruits, and risk of hip fracture. Literature search for relevant studies was performed on PubMed and Embase databases. Five observational studies were included in the meta-analysis. Summary hazard ratio (HR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated from pooled data using the random-effects model irrespective of heterogeneity. Sensitivity and subgroup analysis were performed to explore possible reasons for heterogeneity. The summary HR for hip fracture in relation to high intake vs. low intake of only vegetables, only fruits, and combined intake of fruits and vegetables, was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.61-0.92), 0.87 (95% CI, 0.74-1.04), and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.61-1.03), respectively. Subgroup analyses based on study design, geographical location, number of cases, and gender showed similar results. Increased intake of vegetables, but not fruits, was found to be associated with a lower risk of hip fracture. Large prospective clinical trials with robust methodology are required to confirm our findings.

Genetic Contributions to The Association Between Adult Height and Head and Neck Cancer: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis.

PubMed

Pastorino, Roberta; Puggina, Anna; Carreras-Torres, Robert; Lagiou, Pagona; Holcátová, Ivana; Richiardi, Lorenzo; Kjaerheim, Kristina; Agudo, Antonio; Castellsagué, Xavier; Macfarlane, Tatiana V; Barzan, Luigi; Canova, Cristina; Thakker, Nalin S; Conway, David I; Znaor, Ariana; Healy, Claire M; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Zaridze, David; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonilia; Lissowska, Jolanta; Fabianova, Eleonora; Mates, Ioan Nicolae; Bencko, Vladimir; Foretova, Lenka; Janout, Vladimir; Brennan, Paul; Gaborieau, Valérie; McKay, James D; Boccia, Stefania

2018-03-14

With the aim to dissect the effect of adult height on head and neck cancer (HNC), we use the Mendelian randomization (MR) approach to test the association between genetic instruments for height and the risk of HNC. 599 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were identified as genetic instruments for height, accounting for 16% of the phenotypic variation. Genetic data concerning HNC cases and controls were obtained from a genome-wide association study. Summary statistics for genetic association were used in complementary MR approaches: the weighted genetic risk score (GRS) and the inverse-variance weighted (IVW). MR-Egger regression was used for sensitivity analysis and pleiotropy evaluation. From the GRS analysis, one standard deviation (SD) higher height (6.9 cm; due to genetic predisposition across 599 SNPs) raised the risk for HNC (Odds ratio (OR), 1.14; 95% Confidence Interval (95%CI), 0.99-1.32). The association analyses with potential confounders revealed that the GRS was associated with tobacco smoking (OR = 0.80, 95% CI (0.69-0.93)). MR-Egger regression did not provide evidence of overall directional pleiotropy. Our study indicates that height is potentially associated with HNC risk. However, the reported risk could be underestimated since, at the genetic level, height emerged to be inversely associated with smoking.

Near-Earth Phase Risk Comparison of Human Mars Campaign Architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manning, Ted A.; Nejad, Hamed S.; Mattenberger, Chris

2013-01-01

A risk analysis of the launch, orbital assembly, and Earth-departure phases of human Mars exploration campaign architectures was completed as an extension of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) originally carried out under the NASA Constellation Program Ares V Project. The objective of the updated analysis was to study the sensitivity of loss-of-campaign risk to such architectural factors as composition of the propellant delivery portion of the launch vehicle fleet (Ares V heavy-lift launch vehicle vs. smaller/cheaper commercial launchers) and the degree of launcher or Mars-bound spacecraft element sparing. Both a static PRA analysis and a dynamic, event-based Monte Carlo simulation were developed and used to evaluate the probability of loss of campaign under different sparing options. Results showed that with no sparing, loss-of-campaign risk is strongly driven by launcher count and on-orbit loiter duration, favoring an all-Ares V launch approach. Further, the reliability of the all-Ares V architecture showed significant improvement with the addition of a single spare launcher/payload. Among architectures utilizing a mix of Ares V and commercial launchers, those that minimized the on-orbit loiter duration of Mars-bound elements were found to exceed the reliability of no spare all-Ares V campaign if unlimited commercial vehicle sparing was assumed

Betel nut chewing and the risk of chronic kidney disease: evidence from a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Meng; Yu, Si-Yi; Lv, Zheng-Tao; Yao, Ying

2018-06-01

To investigate and quantify the potential association between betel nut chewing and the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We searched five online databases including PubMed, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, Wanfang and CNKI to identify observational studies that published prior to May, 1, 2017. The primary outcome was the association between betel nut chewing and CKD expressed as odds ratio (OR) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) after adjustment for other covariates. Meta-analysis was performed using RevMan 5.3 software; the leave-one-out sensitivity analysis was used to confirm the stability of drawn conclusion. Five studies comprising a total of 10,562 CKD patients and 34,038 subjects without CKD that analyzed the relationship between betel nut chewing and CKD were included in our study; all the included studies were performed in Taiwan. After the adjustment for covariates, the combined adjusted ORs showed that betel nut used had 1.44 times higher risk to develop CKD compared with non-chewers (OR 1.44, 95%CI 1.08-1.92). Betel nut chewing could significantly increase the risk of CKD, indicating that betel nut chewing may exist as an independent risk factor for CKD. Further investigation should be warranted.

Space Radiation Heart Disease Risk Estimates for Lunar and Mars Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori; Kim, Myung-Hee

2010-01-01

The NASA Space Radiation Program performs research on the risks of late effects from space radiation for cancer, neurological disorders, cataracts, and heart disease. For mortality risks, an aggregate over all risks should be considered as well as projection of the life loss per radiation induced death. We report on a triple detriment life-table approach to combine cancer and heart disease risks. Epidemiology results show extensive heterogeneity between populations for distinct components of the overall heart disease risks including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cerebrovascular diseases. We report on an update to our previous heart disease estimates for Heart disease (ICD9 390-429) and Stroke (ICD9 430-438), and other sub-groups using recent meta-analysis results for various exposed radiation cohorts to low LET radiation. Results for multiplicative and additive risk transfer models are considered using baseline rates for US males and female. Uncertainty analysis indicated heart mortality risks as low as zero, assuming a threshold dose for deterministic effects, and projections approaching one-third of the overall cancer risk. Medan life-loss per death estimates were significantly less than that of solid cancer and leukemias. Critical research questions to improve risks estimates for heart disease are distinctions in mechanisms at high doses (>2 Gy) and low to moderate doses (<2 Gy), and data and basic understanding of radiation doserate and quality effects, and individual sensitivity.

Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Flood Risks in Aging-Dam Management in China: A Framework and Case Study

PubMed Central

Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi

2011-01-01

Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites. PMID:21655125

Oil-Spill Analysis: Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Lease Sales, Eastern Planning Area, 2003-2007 and Gulfwide OCS Program, 2003-2042

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2002-09-01

The Federal Government plans to offer U.S. Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lands in the Eastern Planning Area of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) for oil and gas leasing. This report summarizes results of that analysis, the objective of which was to estimate the risk of oil-spill contact to sensitive offshore and onshore environmental resources and socioeconomic features from oil spills accidentally occurring from the OCS activities.

A diagnostic model for the detection of sensitization to wheat allergens was developed and validated in bakery workers.

PubMed

Suarthana, Eva; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Moons, Karel G; de Monchy, Jan; Grobbee, Diederick; Heederik, Dick; Meijer, Evert

2010-09-01

To develop and validate a prediction model to detect sensitization to wheat allergens in bakery workers. The prediction model was developed in 867 Dutch bakery workers (development set, prevalence of sensitization 13%) and included questionnaire items (candidate predictors). First, principal component analysis was used to reduce the number of candidate predictors. Then, multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop the model. Internal validation and extent of optimism was assessed with bootstrapping. External validation was studied in 390 independent Dutch bakery workers (validation set, prevalence of sensitization 20%). The prediction model contained the predictors nasoconjunctival symptoms, asthma symptoms, shortness of breath and wheeze, work-related upper and lower respiratory symptoms, and traditional bakery. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area of 0.76 (and 0.75 after internal validation). Application of the model in the validation set gave a reasonable discrimination (ROC area=0.69) and good calibration after a small adjustment of the model intercept. A simple model with questionnaire items only can be used to stratify bakers according to their risk of sensitization to wheat allergens. Its use may increase the cost-effectiveness of (subsequent) medical surveillance.

Constellation Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): Design Consideration for the Crew Exploration Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Stamatelatos, Michael G.; Young, Jonathan; Smith, Curtis

2010-01-01

Managed by NASA's Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, a pilot probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the NASA Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) was performed in early 2006. The PRA methods used follow the general guidance provided in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners'. Phased-mission based event trees and fault trees are used to model a lunar sortie mission of the CEV - involving the following phases: launch of a cargo vessel and a crew vessel; rendezvous of these two vessels in low Earth orbit; transit to th$: moon; lunar surface activities; ascension &om the lunar surface; and return to Earth. The analysis is based upon assumptions, preliminary system diagrams, and failure data that may involve large uncertainties or may lack formal validation. Furthermore, some of the data used were based upon expert judgment or extrapolated from similar componentssystemsT. his paper includes a discussion of the system-level models and provides an overview of the analysis results used to identify insights into CEV risk drivers, and trade and sensitivity studies. Lastly, the PRA model was used to determine changes in risk as the system configurations or key parameters are modified.

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ (PPARγ) Pro12Ala polymorphism and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Shao, Yan; Tang, Shenhua; Cheng, Xianyong; Lian, Haifeng; Qin, Chengyong

2015-01-01

The association between the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ (PPARγ) Pro12Ala polymorphism and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk was inconclusive. We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the association between PPARγ Pro12Ala polymorphism and CRC risk. We searched Pubmed, EMBASE, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases. Data were extracted and pooled odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. A total of 17 case-control studies with 12635 and 15803 controls were included in this meta-analysis. Overall, PPARγ Pro12Ala polymorphism was associated with CRC risk (OR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.75-0.94, P = 0.003, I(2) = 35%). In the subgroup analysis by ethnicity, a significant association was found among Caucasians (OR = 0.85, 95% CI 0.75-0.96, P = 0.007, I(2) = 38%) but not among Asians (OR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.51-1.12, P = 0.17, I(2) = 28%). In the subgroup analysis by CRC site, a significant association was found among colon cancer (OR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.66-0.98, P = 0.03, I(2) = 16%) but not among rectal cancer (OR = 0.83, 95% CI 0.57-1.21, P = 0.34, I(2) = 63%). The sensitivity analysis did not influence the result by omitting low-quality studies (OR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.63-0.93, P = 0.006, I(2) = 51%). In conclusion, this meta-analysis suggested that PPARγ Pro12Ala polymorphism was significant associated with CRC risk.