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Sample records for risk stratification strategy

  1. Thrombocytosis: Diagnostic Evaluation, Thrombotic Risk Stratification, and Risk-Based Management Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Bleeker, Jonathan S.; Hogan, William J.

    2011-01-01

    Thrombocytosis is a commonly encountered clinical scenario, with a large proportion of cases discovered incidentally. The differential diagnosis for thrombocytosis is broad and the diagnostic process can be challenging. Thrombocytosis can be spurious, attributed to a reactive process or due to clonal disorder. This distinction is important as it carries implications for evaluation, prognosis, and treatment. Clonal thrombocytosis associated with the myeloproliferative neoplasms, especially essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera, carries a unique prognostic profile, with a markedly increased risk of thrombosis. This risk is the driving factor behind treatment strategies in these disorders. Clinical trials utilizing targeted therapies in thrombocytosis are ongoing with new therapeutic targets waiting to be explored. This paper will outline the mechanisms underlying thrombocytosis, the diagnostic evaluation of thrombocytosis, complications of thrombocytosis with a special focus on thrombotic risk as well as treatment options for clonal processes leading to thrombocytosis, including essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera. PMID:22084665

  2. Molecular microscope strategy to improve risk stratification in early antibody-mediated kidney allograft rejection.

    PubMed

    Loupy, Alexandre; Lefaucheur, Carmen; Vernerey, Dewi; Chang, Jessica; Hidalgo, Luis G; Beuscart, Thibaut; Verine, Jerome; Aubert, Olivier; Dubleumortier, Sébastien; Duong van Huyen, Jean-Paul; Jouven, Xavier; Glotz, Denis; Legendre, Christophe; Halloran, Philip F

    2014-10-01

    Antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) is the leading cause of kidney allograft loss. We investigated whether the addition of gene expression measurements to conventional methods could serve as a molecular microscope to identify kidneys with ABMR that are at high risk for failure. We studied 939 consecutive kidney recipients at Necker Hospital (2004-2010; principal cohort) and 321 kidney recipients at Saint Louis Hospital (2006-2010; validation cohort) and assessed patients with ABMR in the first 1 year post-transplant. In addition to conventional features, we assessed microarray-based gene expression in transplant biopsy specimens using relevant molecular measurements: the ABMR Molecular Score and endothelial donor-specific antibody-selective transcript set. The main outcomes were kidney transplant loss and progression to chronic transplant injury. We identified 74 patients with ABMR in the principal cohort and 54 patients with ABMR in the validation cohort. Conventional features independently associated with failure were donor age and humoral histologic score (g+ptc+v+cg+C4d). Adjusting for conventional features, ABMR Molecular Score (hazard ratio [HR], 2.22; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.37 to 3.58; P=0.001) and endothelial donor-specific antibody-selective transcripts (HR, 3.02; 95% CI, 1.00 to 9.16; P<0.05) independently associated with an increased risk of graft loss. The results were replicated in the independent validation group. Adding a gene expression assessment to a traditional risk model improved the stratification of patients at risk for graft failure (continuous net reclassification improvement, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.57 to 1.46; P<0.001; integrated discrimination improvement, 0.16; P<0.001). Compared with conventional assessment, the addition of gene expression measurement in kidney transplants with ABMR improves stratification of patients at high risk for graft loss.

  3. Caprini Scores, Risk Stratification, and Rivaroxaban in Plastic Surgery: Time to Reconsider Our Strategy

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Summary: Limited data are available regarding the pathophysiology of venous thromboembolism in plastic surgery patients. In an effort to identify patients at greater risk, some investigators promote individual risk assessment using Caprini scores. However, these scores do not correlate with relative risk values. Affected patients cannot be reliably predicted (97% false positive rate). Caprini scores make many body contouring patients candidates for chemoprophylaxis, an intervention that introduces risks related to anticoagulation. Caprini has financial conflicts with several companies that manufacture products such as enoxaparin, commonly used for chemoprophylaxis. Rivaroxaban, taken orally, has been used by some plastic surgeons as an alternative to enoxaparin injections. However, this medication is not United States Food and Drug Administration approved for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in plastic surgery patients, and a reversal agent is unavailable. This article challenges the prevailing wisdom regarding individual risk stratification and chemoprophylaxis. Alternative methods to reduce risk for all patients include safer anesthesia methods and Doppler ultrasound surveillance. Clinical findings alone are unreliable in diagnosing deep venous thromboses. Only by using a reliable diagnostic tool such as Doppler ultrasound are we able to learn more about the natural history of this problem in our patients. Such knowledge is likely to better inform our treatment recommendations. PMID:27482481

  4. Caprini Scores, Risk Stratification, and Rivaroxaban in Plastic Surgery: Time to Reconsider Our Strategy.

    PubMed

    Swanson, Eric

    2016-06-01

    Limited data are available regarding the pathophysiology of venous thromboembolism in plastic surgery patients. In an effort to identify patients at greater risk, some investigators promote individual risk assessment using Caprini scores. However, these scores do not correlate with relative risk values. Affected patients cannot be reliably predicted (97% false positive rate). Caprini scores make many body contouring patients candidates for chemoprophylaxis, an intervention that introduces risks related to anticoagulation. Caprini has financial conflicts with several companies that manufacture products such as enoxaparin, commonly used for chemoprophylaxis. Rivaroxaban, taken orally, has been used by some plastic surgeons as an alternative to enoxaparin injections. However, this medication is not United States Food and Drug Administration approved for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in plastic surgery patients, and a reversal agent is unavailable. This article challenges the prevailing wisdom regarding individual risk stratification and chemoprophylaxis. Alternative methods to reduce risk for all patients include safer anesthesia methods and Doppler ultrasound surveillance. Clinical findings alone are unreliable in diagnosing deep venous thromboses. Only by using a reliable diagnostic tool such as Doppler ultrasound are we able to learn more about the natural history of this problem in our patients. Such knowledge is likely to better inform our treatment recommendations.

  5. Sudden cardiac death risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Deyell, Marc W; Krahn, Andrew D; Goldberger, Jeffrey J

    2015-06-05

    Arrhythmic sudden cardiac death (SCD) may be caused by ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation or pulseless electric activity/asystole. Effective risk stratification to identify patients at risk of arrhythmic SCD is essential for targeting our healthcare and research resources to tackle this important public health issue. Although our understanding of SCD because of pulseless electric activity/asystole is growing, the overwhelming majority of research in risk stratification has focused on SCD-ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation. This review focuses on existing and novel risk stratification tools for SCD-ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation. For patients with left ventricular dysfunction or myocardial infarction, advances in imaging, measures of cardiac autonomic function, and measures of repolarization have shown considerable promise in refining risk. Yet the majority of SCD-ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation occurs in patients without known cardiac disease. Biomarkers and novel imaging techniques may provide further risk stratification in the general population beyond traditional risk stratification for coronary artery disease alone. Despite these advances, significant challenges in risk stratification remain that must be overcome before a meaningful impact on SCD can be realized.

  6. Is risk stratification ever the same as 'profiling'?

    PubMed

    Braithwaite, R Scott; Stevens, Elizabeth R; Caplan, Arthur

    2016-05-01

    Physicians engage in risk stratification as a normative part of their professional duties. Risk stratification has the potential to be beneficial in many ways, and implicit recognition of this potential benefit underlies its acceptance as a cornerstone of the medical profession. However, risk stratification also has the potential to be harmful. We argue that 'profiling' is a term that corresponds to risk stratification strategies in which there is concern that ethical harms exceed likely or proven benefits. In the case of risk stratification for health goals, this would occur most frequently if benefits were obtained by threats to justice, autonomy or privacy. We discuss implications of the potential overlap between risk stratification and profiling for researchers and for clinicians, and we consider whether there are salient characteristics that make a particular risk stratification algorithm more or less likely to overlap with profiling, such as whether the risk stratification algorithm is based on voluntary versus non-voluntary characteristics, based on causal versus non-causal characteristics, or based on signifiers of historical disadvantage. We also discuss the ethical challenges created when a risk stratification scheme helps all subgroups but some more than others, or when risk stratification harms some subgroups but benefits the aggregate group.

  7. Recent biologic and genetic advances in neuroblastoma: Implications for diagnostic, risk stratification, and treatment strategies.

    PubMed

    Newman, Erika A; Nuchtern, Jed G

    2016-10-01

    Neuroblastoma is an embryonic cancer of neural crest cell lineage, accounting for up to 10% of all pediatric cancer. The clinical course is heterogeneous ranging from spontaneous regression in neonates to life-threatening metastatic disease in older children. Much of this clinical variance is thought to result from distinct pathologic characteristics that predict patient outcomes. Consequently, many research efforts have been focused on identifying the underlying biologic and genetic features of neuroblastoma tumors in order to more clearly define prognostic subgroups for treatment stratification. Recent technological advances have placed emphasis on the integration of genetic alterations and predictive biologic variables into targeted treatment approaches to improve patient survival outcomes. This review will focus on these recent advances and the implications they have on the diagnostic, staging, and treatment approaches in modern neuroblastoma clinical management.

  8. Cardiac risk stratification and protection.

    PubMed

    Halub, Meghan E; Sidwell, Richard A

    2015-04-01

    The goal of preoperative cardiac evaluation is to screen for undiagnosed cardiac disease or to find evidence of known conditions that are poorly controlled to allow management that reduces the risk of perioperative cardiac complications. A careful history and physical examination combined with the procedure-specific risk is the cornerstone of this assessment. This article reviews a brief history of prior cardiac risk stratification indexes, explores current practice guidelines by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association Task Force, reviews current methods for preoperative evaluation, discusses revascularization options, and evaluates perioperative medication recommendations.

  9. Novel concepts for risk stratification in prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Patel, Keval M; Gnanapragasam, Vincent J

    2016-12-01

    Since Partin introduced the analysis of prostate-specific antigen, clinical T-stage and Gleason scores to estimate the risk of progression in men with localised prostate cancer, our understanding of factors that modify this risk has changed drastically. There are now multiple risk stratification tools available, including look-up tables, risk stratification/classification analyses, regression-tree analyses, nomograms and artificial neural networks. Concurrently, descriptions of novel biopsy strategies, imaging modalities and biomarkers are frequently published with the aim of improving risk stratification. With an abundance of new information available, incorporating advances into clinical practice can be confusing. This article aims to outline the major novel concepts in prostate cancer risk stratification for men with biopsy confirmed prostate cancer. We will detail which of these novel techniques and tools are likely to be adopted to aid treatment decisions and enable more accurate post-diagnosis, pretreatment risk stratification.

  10. Novel concepts for risk stratification in prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Keval M; Gnanapragasam, Vincent J

    2016-01-01

    Since Partin introduced the analysis of prostate-specific antigen, clinical T-stage and Gleason scores to estimate the risk of progression in men with localised prostate cancer, our understanding of factors that modify this risk has changed drastically. There are now multiple risk stratification tools available, including look-up tables, risk stratification/classification analyses, regression-tree analyses, nomograms and artificial neural networks. Concurrently, descriptions of novel biopsy strategies, imaging modalities and biomarkers are frequently published with the aim of improving risk stratification. With an abundance of new information available, incorporating advances into clinical practice can be confusing. This article aims to outline the major novel concepts in prostate cancer risk stratification for men with biopsy confirmed prostate cancer. We will detail which of these novel techniques and tools are likely to be adopted to aid treatment decisions and enable more accurate post-diagnosis, pretreatment risk stratification.

  11. Brugada Syndrome:Risk Stratification And Management.

    PubMed

    Letsas Md Fesc, Konstantinos P; Georgopoulos Md, Stamatis; Vlachos Md, Konstantinos; Karamichalakis Md, Nikolaos; Liatakis Md, Ioannis; Korantzopoulos Md PhD, Panagiotis; Liu Md PhD, Tong; Efremidis Md, Michael; Sideris Md, Antonios

    2016-01-01

    The Brugada syndrome (BrS) is an arrhythmogenic disease associated with an increased risk of ventricular fibrillation and sudden cardiac death. The risk stratification and management of BrS patients, particularly of asymptomatic ones, still remains challenging. A previous history of aborted sudden cardiac death or arrhythmic syncope in the presence of spontaneous type 1 ECG pattern of BrS phenotype appear to be the most reliable predictors of future arrhythmic events. Several other ECG parameters have been proposed for risk stratification. Among these ECG markers, QRS-fragmentation appears very promising. Although the value of electrophysiological study still remains controversial, it appears to add important information on risk stratification, particularly when incorporated in multiparametric scores in combination with other known risk factors. The present review article provides an update on the pathophysiology, risk stratification and management of patients with BrS.

  12. Towards actionable risk stratification: a bilinear approach.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiang; Wang, Fei; Hu, Jianying; Sorrentino, Robert

    2015-02-01

    Risk stratification is instrumental to modern clinical decision support systems. Comprehensive risk stratification should be able to provide the clinicians with not only the accurate assessment of a patient's risk but also the clinical context to be acted upon. However, existing risk stratification techniques mainly focus on predicting the risk score for individual patients; at the cohort level, they offer little insight beyond a flat score-based segmentation. This essentially reduces a patient to a score and thus removes him/her from his/her clinical context. To address this limitation, in this paper we propose a bilinear model for risk stratification that simultaneously captures the three key aspects of risk stratification: (1) it predicts the risk of each individual patient; (2) it stratifies the patient cohort based on not only the risk score but also the clinical characteristics; and (3) it embeds all patients into clinical contexts with clear interpretation. We apply our model to a cohort of 4977 patients, 1127 among which were diagnosed with Congestive Heart Failure (CHF). We demonstrate that our model cannot only accurately predict the onset risk of CHF but also provide rich and actionable clinical insights into the patient cohort.

  13. Brugada syndrome: Diagnosis, risk stratification and management.

    PubMed

    Gourraud, Jean-Baptiste; Barc, Julien; Thollet, Aurélie; Le Marec, Hervé; Probst, Vincent

    2017-03-01

    Brugada syndrome is a rare inherited arrhythmia syndrome leading to an increased risk of sudden cardiac death, despite a structurally normal heart. Diagnosis is based on a specific electrocardiogram pattern, observed either spontaneously or during a sodium channel blocker test. Among affected patients, risk stratification remains a challenge, despite recent insights from large population cohorts. As implantable cardiac defibrillators - the main therapy in Brugada syndrome - are associated with a high rate of complications in this population, the main challenge is risk stratification of patients with Brugada syndrome. Aside from the two main predictors of arrhythmia (symptoms and spontaneous electrocardiogram pattern), many risk factors have been recently suggested for stratifying risk of sudden cardiac death in Brugada syndrome. We have reviewed these data and discuss current guidelines in light of recent progress in this complex field.

  14. Life insurance: genomic stratification and risk classification.

    PubMed

    Joly, Yann; Burton, Hilary; Knoppers, Bartha Maria; Feze, Ida Ngueng; Dent, Tom; Pashayan, Nora; Chowdhury, Susmita; Foulkes, William; Hall, Alison; Hamet, Pavel; Kirwan, Nick; Macdonald, Angus; Simard, Jacques; Van Hoyweghen, Ine

    2014-05-01

    With the development and increasing accessibility of new genomic tools such as next-generation sequencing, genome-wide association studies, and genomic stratification models, the debate on genetic discrimination in the context of life insurance became even more complex, requiring a review of current practices and the exploration of new scenarios. In this perspective, a multidisciplinary group of international experts representing different interests revisited the genetics and life insurance debate during a 2-day symposium 'Life insurance: breast cancer research and genetic risk prediction seminar' held in Quebec City, Canada on 24 and 25 September 2012. Having reviewed the current legal, social, and ethical issues on the use of genomic information in the context of life insurance, the Expert Group identified four main questions: (1) Have recent developments in genomics and related sciences changed the contours of the genetics and life insurance debate? (2) Are genomic results obtained in a research context relevant for life insurance underwriting? (3) Should predictive risk assessment and risk stratification models based on genomic data also be used for life insurance underwriting? (4) What positive actions could stakeholders in the debate take to alleviate concerns over the use of genomic information by life insurance underwriters? This paper presents a summary of the discussions and the specific action items recommended by the Expert Group.

  15. Life insurance: genomic stratification and risk classification

    PubMed Central

    Joly, Yann; Burton, Hilary; Knoppers, Bartha Maria; Feze, Ida Ngueng; Dent, Tom; Pashayan, Nora; Chowdhury, Susmita; Foulkes, William; Hall, Alison; Hamet, Pavel; Kirwan, Nick; Macdonald, Angus; Simard, Jacques; Van Hoyweghen, Ine

    2014-01-01

    With the development and increasing accessibility of new genomic tools such as next-generation sequencing, genome-wide association studies, and genomic stratification models, the debate on genetic discrimination in the context of life insurance became even more complex, requiring a review of current practices and the exploration of new scenarios. In this perspective, a multidisciplinary group of international experts representing different interests revisited the genetics and life insurance debate during a 2-day symposium ‘Life insurance: breast cancer research and genetic risk prediction seminar' held in Quebec City, Canada on 24 and 25 September 2012. Having reviewed the current legal, social, and ethical issues on the use of genomic information in the context of life insurance, the Expert Group identified four main questions: (1) Have recent developments in genomics and related sciences changed the contours of the genetics and life insurance debate? (2) Are genomic results obtained in a research context relevant for life insurance underwriting? (3) Should predictive risk assessment and risk stratification models based on genomic data also be used for life insurance underwriting? (4) What positive actions could stakeholders in the debate take to alleviate concerns over the use of genomic information by life insurance underwriters? This paper presents a summary of the discussions and the specific action items recommended by the Expert Group. PMID:24129434

  16. Risk stratification after myocardial infarction. Clinical overview

    SciTech Connect

    O'Rourke, R.A. )

    1991-09-01

    Many patients with an acute myocardial infarction can be stratified into subgroups that are at high risk for morbidity and mortality on the basis of clinical characteristics that indicate recurrent myocardial ischemia, persistent left ventricular dysfunction, and/or recurrent cardiac arrhythmias. In patients with uncomplicated myocardial infarction the assessment of symptoms, physical findings, and ECG changes during predischarge exercise testing often identifies patients at increased risk for further cardiac events. Because of the suboptimum sensitivity and specificity of the exercise ECG for detecting myocardial ischemia, myocardial perfusion imaging with 201Tl and/or assessment of global and segmental ventricular function by two-dimensional echocardiography or radionuclide cineangiography during or immediately after exercise are often added to the predischarge risk stratification.

  17. Risk stratification for benign prostatic hyperplasia.

    PubMed

    Zattoni, Fabio; Ficarra, Vincenzo; Novara, Giacomo

    2017-03-18

    Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) represents an important public health problem in ageing men due to frequently associated lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS), which may impair quality of life. BPH is also a progressive disease, mainly characterized by a worsening of LUTS over time, and in some patients by the occurrence of serious outcomes such as acute urinary retention and need for BPH-related surgery. The management of BPH and LUTS in men should move forward its focus on symptom control only. Indeed, the goals of therapy for BPH are not only to improve bothersome LUTS but also to identify those patients at risk of unfavourable outcomes in order to optimize their management and reduce complications. Risk stratification and tailored treatment should improve the reductions in both symptoms and the long-term consequences of BPH and BPH treatments. To do this, clinicians need to know possible factors that may support the develop of PBH and possible risks due to the BPH itself.

  18. Cytogenetic risk stratification in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Such, Esperanza; Cervera, José; Costa, Dolors; Solé, Francesc; Vallespí, Teresa; Luño, Elisa; Collado, Rosa; Calasanz, María J.; Hernández-Rivas, Jesús M.; Cigudosa, Juan C.; Nomdedeu, Benet; Mallo, Mar; Carbonell, Felix; Bueno, Javier; Ardanaz, María T.; Ramos, Fernando; Tormo, Mar; Sancho-Tello, Reyes; del Cañizo, Consuelo; Gómez, Valle; Marco, Victor; Xicoy, Blanca; Bonanad, Santiago; Pedro, Carmen; Bernal, Teresa; Sanz, Guillermo F.

    2011-01-01

    Background The prognostic value of cytogenetic findings in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia is unclear. Our purpose was to evaluate the independent prognostic impact of cytogenetic abnormalities in a large series of patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia included in the database of the Spanish Registry of Myelodysplastic Syndromes. Design and Methods We studied 414 patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia according to WHO criteria and with a successful conventional cytogenetic analysis at diagnosis. Different patient and disease characteristics were examined by univariate and multivariate methods to establish their relationship with overall survival and evolution to acute myeloid leukemia. Results Patients with abnormal karyotype (110 patients, 27%) had poorer overall survival (P=0.001) and higher risk of acute myeloid leukemia evolution (P=0.010). Based on outcome analysis, three cytogenetic risk categories were identified: low risk (normal karyotype or loss of Y chromosome as a single anomaly), high risk (presence of trisomy 8 or abnormalities of chromosome 7, or complex karyotype), and intermediate risk (all other abnormalities). Overall survival at five years for patients in the low, intermediate, and high risk cytogenetic categories was 35%, 26%, and 4%, respectively (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis confirmed that this new CMML-specific cytogenetic risk stratification was an independent prognostic variable for overall survival (P=0.001). Additionally, patients belonging to the high-risk cytogenetic category also had a higher risk of acute myeloid leukemia evolution on univariate (P=0.001) but not multivariate analysis. Conclusions Cytogenetic findings have a strong prognostic impact in patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia. PMID:21109693

  19. Ventricular repolarization measures for arrhythmic risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Monitillo, Francesco; Leone, Marta; Rizzo, Caterina; Passantino, Andrea; Iacoviello, Massimo

    2016-01-01

    Ventricular repolarization is a complex electrical phenomenon which represents a crucial stage in electrical cardiac activity. It is expressed on the surface electrocardiogram by the interval between the start of the QRS complex and the end of the T wave or U wave (QT). Several physiological, pathological and iatrogenic factors can influence ventricular repolarization. It has been demonstrated that small perturbations in this process can be a potential trigger of malignant arrhythmias, therefore the analysis of ventricular repolarization represents an interesting tool to implement risk stratification of arrhythmic events in different clinical settings. The aim of this review is to critically revise the traditional methods of static analysis of ventricular repolarization as well as those for dynamic evaluation, their prognostic significance and the possible application in daily clinical practice. PMID:26839657

  20. The Delayed Risk Stratification System in the Risk of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Recurrence

    PubMed Central

    Walczyk, Agnieszka; Pałyga, Iwona; Gąsior-Perczak, Danuta; Gadawska-Juszczyk, Klaudia; Szymonek, Monika; Trybek, Tomasz; Lizis-Kolus, Katarzyna; Szyska-Skrobot, Dorota; Mikina, Estera; Hurej, Stefan; Słuszniak, Janusz; Mężyk, Ryszard; Góźdź, Stanisław

    2016-01-01

    Context There has been a marked increase in the detection of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) over the past few years, which has improved the prognosis. However, it is necessary to adjust treatment and monitoring strategies relative to the risk of an unfavourable disease course. Materials and Methods This retrospective study examined data from 916 patients with DTC who received treatment at a single centre between 2000 and 2013. The utility of the American Thyroid Association (ATA) and the European Thyroid Association (ETA) recommended systems for early assessment of the risk of recurrent/persistent disease was compared with that of the recently recommended delayed risk stratification (DRS) system. Results The PPV and NPV for the ATA (24.59% and 95.42%, respectively) and ETA (24.28% and 95.68%, respectively) were significantly lower than those for the DRS (56.76% and 98.5%, respectively) (p<0.0001). The proportion of variance for predicting the final outcome was 15.8% for ATA, 16.1% for ETA and 56.7% for the DRS. Recurrent disease was rare (1% of patients), and was nearly always identified in patients at intermediate/high risk according to the initial stratification (9/10 cases). Conclusions The DRS showed a better correlation with the risk of persistent disease than the early stratification systems and allows personalisation of follow-up. If clinicians plan to alter the intensity of surveillance, patients at intermediate/high risk according to the early stratification systems should remain within the specialized centers; however, low risk patients can be referred to endocrinologists or other appropriate practitioners for long-term follow-up, as these patients remained at low risk after risk re-stratification. PMID:27078258

  1. [Risk stratification of sudden death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in 2016].

    PubMed

    Dubourg, Olivier; Charron, Philippe; Sirol, Marc; Siam-Tsieu, Valérie; Mansencal, Nicolas

    2016-10-01

    Patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) are at an increased risk of death from many causes and sudden cardiac death is one of them. The study of the sudden cardiac death of patients with HCM has allowed the identification of risk factors and among them major risk factor are: family history of sudden cardiac death, the occurrence of syncope/dizziness, the existence of non-sustained ventricular tachycardia an abnormal blood pressure response during stress test, presence of severe left ventricular hypertrophy≥30mm. Risk stratification for sudden cardiac death is essential, for symptomatic or asymptomatic HCM patients. Two approaches are possible: the classical approach or risk stratification methods with major risk factors and the new approach using the risk-calculator recommended by the ESC. Both methods are not in opposition but complementary. The risk stratification in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy should be still improved to be sure that only the most high-risk patients receive an implantable cardiac defibrillator.

  2. Risk stratification in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes: Risk scores, biomarkers and clinical judgment.

    PubMed

    Corcoran, David; Grant, Patrick; Berry, Colin

    2015-09-01

    Undifferentiated chest pain is one of the most common reasons for emergency department attendance and admission to hospitals. Non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) is an important cause of chest pain, and accurate diagnosis and risk stratification in the emergency department must be a clinical priority. In the future, the incidence of NSTE-ACS will rise further as higher sensitivity troponin assays are implemented in clinical practice. In this article, we review contemporary approaches for the diagnosis and risk stratification of NSTE-ACS during emergency care. We consider the limitations of current practices and potential improvements. Clinical guidelines recommend an early invasive strategy in higher risk NSTE-ACS. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score is a validated risk stratification tool which has incremental prognostic value for risk stratification compared with clinical assessment or troponin testing alone. In emergency medicine, there has been a limited adoption of the GRACE score in some countries (e.g. United Kingdom), in part related to a delay in obtaining timely blood biochemistry results. Age makes an exponential contribution to the GRACE score, and on an individual patient basis, the risk of younger patients with a flow-limiting culprit coronary artery lesion may be underestimated. The future incorporation of novel cardiac biomarkers into this diagnostic pathway may allow for earlier treatment stratification. The cost-effectiveness of the new diagnostic pathways based on high-sensitivity troponin and copeptin must also be established. Finally, diagnostic tests and risk scores may optimize patient care but they cannot replace patient-focused good clinical judgment.

  3. Molecular risk stratification in advanced heart failure patients

    PubMed Central

    Lamirault, Guillaume; Meur, Nolwenn Le; Roussel, Jean-Christian; Cunff, Marie-France Le; Baron, Daniel; Bihouée, Audrey; Guisle, Isabelle; Raharijaona, Mahatsangy; Ramstein, Gérard; Teusan, Raluca; Chevalier, Catherine; Gueffet, Jean-Pierre; Trochu, Jean-Noël; Léger, Jean J; Houlgatte, Rémi; Steenman, Marja

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Risk stratification in advanced heart failure (HF) is crucial for the individualization of therapeutic strategy, in particular for heart transplantation and ventricular assist device implantation. We tested the hypothesis that cardiac gene expression profiling can distinguish between HF patients with different disease severity. We obtained tissue samples from both left (LV) and right (RV) ventricle of explanted hearts of 44 patients undergoing cardiac transplantation or ventricular assist device placement. Gene expression profiles were obtained using an in-house microarray containing 4217 muscular organ-relevant genes. Based on their clinical status, patients were classified into three HF-severity groups: deteriorating (n= 12), intermediate (n= 19) and stable (n= 13). Two-class statistical analysis of gene expression profiles of deteriorating and stable patients identified a 170-gene and a 129-gene predictor for LV and RV samples, respectively. The LV molecular predictor identified patients with stable and deteriorating status with a sensitivity of 88% and 92%, and a specificity of 100% and 96%, respectively. The RV molecular predictor identified patients with stable and deteriorating status with a sensitivity of 100% and 96%, and a specificity of 100% and 100%, respectively. The molecular prediction was reproducible across biological replicates in LV and RV samples. Gene expression profiling has the potential to reproducibly detect HF patients with highest HF severity with high sensitivity and specificity. In addition, not only LV but also RV samples could be used for molecular risk stratification with similar predictive power. PMID:19793385

  4. Integration of genetic and epigenetic markers for risk stratification: opportunities and challenges.

    PubMed

    Pashayan, Nora; Reisel, Daniel; Widschwendter, Martin

    2016-03-01

    Common genetic susceptibility variants could be used for risk stratification in risk-tailored cancer screening and prevention programmes. Combining genetic variants with environmental risk factors would improve risk stratification. Epigenetic changes are surrogate markers of environmental exposures during individual's lifetime. Integrating epigenetic markers, in lieu of environmental exposure data, with genetic markers would potentially improve risk stratification. Epigenetic changes are reversible and acquired gradually, providing potentials for prevention and early detection strategies. The epigenetic changes are tissue-specific and stage-of-development-specific, raising challenges in choice of sample and timing for evaluation of cancer-associated changes. The Horizon 2020 funded research programme, FORECEE, using empirical data, will investigate the value of integration of epigenomics with genomics for risk prediction and prevention of women-specific cancers.

  5. From Humoral Theory to Performant Risk Stratification in Kidney Transplantation.

    PubMed

    Lefaucheur, C; Viglietti, D; Mangiola, M; Loupy, A; Zeevi, A

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the present review is to describe how we improve the model for risk stratification of transplant outcomes in kidney transplantation by incorporating the novel insights of donor-specific anti-HLA antibody (DSA) characteristics. The detection of anti-HLA DSA is widely used for the assessment of pre- and posttransplant risks of rejection and allograft loss; however, not all anti-HLA DSA carry the same risk for transplant outcomes. These antibodies have been shown to cause a wide spectrum of effects on allografts, ranging from the absence of injury to indolent or full-blown acute antibody-mediated rejection. Consequently, the presence of circulating anti-HLA DSA does not provide a sufficient level of accuracy for the risk stratification of allograft outcomes. Enhancing the predictive performance of anti-HLA DSA is currently one of the most pressing unmet needs for facilitating individualized treatment choices that may improve outcomes. Recent advancements in the assessment of anti-HLA DSA properties, including their strength, complement-binding capacity, and IgG subclass composition, significantly improved the risk stratification model to predict allograft injury and failure. Although risk stratification based on anti-HLA DSA properties appears promising, further specific studies that address immunological risk stratification in large and unselected populations are required to define the benefits and cost-effectiveness of such comprehensive assessment prior to clinical implementation.

  6. From Humoral Theory to Performant Risk Stratification in Kidney Transplantation

    PubMed Central

    Viglietti, D.; Mangiola, M.; Loupy, A.; Zeevi, A.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the present review is to describe how we improve the model for risk stratification of transplant outcomes in kidney transplantation by incorporating the novel insights of donor-specific anti-HLA antibody (DSA) characteristics. The detection of anti-HLA DSA is widely used for the assessment of pre- and posttransplant risks of rejection and allograft loss; however, not all anti-HLA DSA carry the same risk for transplant outcomes. These antibodies have been shown to cause a wide spectrum of effects on allografts, ranging from the absence of injury to indolent or full-blown acute antibody-mediated rejection. Consequently, the presence of circulating anti-HLA DSA does not provide a sufficient level of accuracy for the risk stratification of allograft outcomes. Enhancing the predictive performance of anti-HLA DSA is currently one of the most pressing unmet needs for facilitating individualized treatment choices that may improve outcomes. Recent advancements in the assessment of anti-HLA DSA properties, including their strength, complement-binding capacity, and IgG subclass composition, significantly improved the risk stratification model to predict allograft injury and failure. Although risk stratification based on anti-HLA DSA properties appears promising, further specific studies that address immunological risk stratification in large and unselected populations are required to define the benefits and cost-effectiveness of such comprehensive assessment prior to clinical implementation. PMID:28133619

  7. Risk Stratification in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: An Ongoing Process.

    PubMed

    Omry-Orbach, Gal

    2016-01-28

    Thyroid cancer is an increasingly common malignancy, with a rapidly rising prevalence worldwide. The social and economic ramifications of the increase in thyroid cancer are multiple. Though mortality from thyroid cancer is low, and most patients will do well, the risk of recurrence is not insignificant, up to 30%. Therefore, it is important to accurately identify those patients who are more or less likely to be burdened by their disease over years and tailor their treatment plan accordingly. The goal of risk stratification is to do just that. The risk stratification process generally starts postoperatively with histopathologic staging, based on the AJCC/UICC staging system as well as others designed to predict mortality. These do not, however, accurately assess the risk of recurrence/persistence. Patients initially considered to be at high risk may ultimately do very well yet be burdened by frequent unnecessary monitoring. Conversely, patients initially thought to be low risk, may not respond to their initial treatment as expected and, if left unmonitored, may have higher morbidity. The concept of risk-adaptive management has been adopted, with an understanding that risk stratification for differentiated thyroid cancer is dynamic and ongoing. A multitude of variables not included in AJCC/UICC staging are used initially to classify patients as low, intermediate, or high risk for recurrence. Over the course of time, a response-to-therapy variable is incorporated, and patients essentially undergo continuous risk stratification. Additional tools such as biochemical markers, genetic mutations, and molecular markers have been added to this complex risk stratification process such that this is essentially a continuum of risk. In recent years, additional considerations have been discussed with a suggestion of pre-operative risk stratification based on certain clinical and/or biologic characteristics. With the increasing prevalence of thyroid cancer but stable mortality

  8. Testicular cancer: risk stratification in adolescents with nonseminoma.

    PubMed

    Looijenga, Leendert H J

    2014-07-01

    Data are lacking on the role of histological risk factors (such as embryonal carcinoma and lymphovascular invasion) for occult metastasis in adolescents with testicular germ cell tumours. Investigators of a pilot study have now retrospectively reviewed a testis cancer database to identify risk stratification criteria in this population.

  9. Risk stratification for ST segment elevation myocardial infarction in the era of primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

    PubMed

    Brogan, Richard A; Malkin, Christopher J; Batin, Phillip D; Simms, Alexander D; McLenachan, James M; Gale, Christopher P

    2014-08-26

    Acute coronary syndromes presenting with ST elevation are usually treated with emergency reperfusion/revascularisation therapy. In contrast current evidence and national guidelines recommend risk stratification for non ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) with the decision on revascularisation dependent on perceived clinical risk. Risk stratification for STEMI has no recommendation. Statistical risk scoring techniques in NSTEMI have been demonstrated to improve outcomes however their uptake has been poor perhaps due to questions over their discrimination and concern for application to individuals who may not have been adequately represented in clinical trials. STEMI is perceived to carry sufficient risk to warrant emergency coronary intervention [by primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI)] even if this results in a delay to reperfusion with immediate thrombolysis. Immediate thrombolysis may be as effective in patients presenting early, or at low risk, but physicians are poor at assessing clinical and procedural risks and currently are not required to consider this. Inadequate data on risk stratification in STEMI inhibits the option of immediate fibrinolysis, which may be cost-effective. Currently the mode of reperfusion for STEMI defaults to emergency angiography and percutaneous coronary intervention ignoring alternative strategies. This review article examines the current risk scores and evidence base for risk stratification for STEMI patients. The requirements for an ideal STEMI risk score are discussed.

  10. Epidemiological risk stratification of malaria in the Americas.

    PubMed

    Castillo-Salgado, C

    1992-01-01

    During the last years, malaria had a significant increase in Latin America, emerging again as one critical health problem in the Region of the Americas. More than 1.04 million new cases were reported in 1990. This resurgence of malaria needed a comprehensive strategy for its prevention and control. National malaria control programs recognized the epidemiological stratification of malaria as a valuable method to assist them in the recognition of local variations and factors that specifically contribute to the level and intensity of transmission in critical malarious areas. Also it serves as a useful instrument for the selection of needed malaria prevention and control activities. The principal feature of this approach is to provide a dynamic and ongoing process for assessing the epidemiological importance of different risk factors (socio-economic, ecological, organization of health services) in malaria transmission. Health interventions are based on this assessment and are aimed directly at the reduction or elimination of the identified risk factors operating at the local level. Intersectorial co-participation and the integration of malaria programs in local health services are also important aspects of this public health approach.

  11. Cardiovascular risk stratification in familial hypercholesterolaemia

    PubMed Central

    Sharifi, Mahtab; Rakhit, Roby D; Humphries, Steve E; Nair, Devaki

    2016-01-01

    Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is a common autosomal-dominant disorder in most European countries. Patients with FH are characterised by a raised level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and a high risk of premature coronary heart disease (CHD). Currently there is no consensus regarding the clinical utility to predict future coronary events or testing for the presence of subclinical atherosclerotic disease in asymptomatic patients with FH. Family screening of patients with FH as recommended by the UK National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guideline would result in finding many young individuals with a diagnosis of FH who are clinically asymptomatic. The traditional CHD risk scores, that is, the Framingham score, are insufficient in risk prediction in this group of young individuals. In addition, a better understanding of the genetic aetiology of the FH phenotype and CHD risk in monogenic FH and polygenic hypercholesterolaemia is needed. Non-invasive imaging methods such as carotid intima-media thickness measurement might produce more reliable information in finding high-risk patients with FH. The potential market authorisation of novel therapeutic agents such as PCSK9 monoclonal inhibitors makes it essential to have a better screening programme to prioritise the candidates for treatment with the most severe form of FH and at higher risk of coronary events. The utility of new imaging techniques and new cardiovascular biomarkers remains to be determined in prospective trials. PMID:27126396

  12. Risk stratification in prostate cancer screening.

    PubMed

    Roobol, Monique J; Carlsson, Sigrid V

    2013-01-01

    Screening for prostate cancer is a controversial topic within the field of urology. The US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial did not demonstrate any difference in prostate-cancer-related mortality rates between men screened annually rather than on an 'opportunistic' basis. However, in the world's largest trial to date--the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer--screening every 2-4 years was associated with a 21% reduction in prostate-cancer-related mortality rate after 11 years. Citing the uncertain ratio between potential harm and potential benefit, the US Preventive Services Task Force recently recommended against serum PSA screening. Although this ratio has yet to be elucidated, PSA testing--and early tumour detection--is undoubtedly beneficial for some individuals. Instead of adopting a 'one size fits all' approach, physicians are likely to perform personalized risk assessment to minimize the risk of negative consequences, such as anxiety, unnecessary testing and biopsies, overdiagnosis, and overtreatment. The PSA test needs to be combined with other predictive factors or be used in a more thoughtful way to identify men at risk of symptomatic or life-threatening cancer, without overdiagnosing indolent disease. A risk-adapted approach is needed, whereby PSA testing is tailored to individual risk.

  13. Stroke risk stratification in acute dizziness presentations

    PubMed Central

    Meurer, William J.; Brown, Devin L.; Burke, James F.; Hofer, Timothy P.; Tsodikov, Alexander; Hoeffner, Ellen G.; Fendrick, A.M.; Adelman, Eric E.; Morgenstern, Lewis B.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To estimate the ability of bedside information to risk stratify stroke in acute dizziness presentations. Methods: Surveillance methods were used to identify patients with acute dizziness and nystagmus or imbalance, excluding those with benign paroxysmal positional vertigo, medical causes, or moderate to severe neurologic deficits. Stroke was defined as acute infarction or intracerebral hemorrhage on a clinical or research MRI performed within 14 days of dizziness onset. Bedside information comprised history of stroke, the ABCD2 score (age, blood pressure, clinical features, duration, and diabetes), an ocular motor (OM)-based assessment (head impulse test, nystagmus pattern [central vs other], test of skew), and a general neurologic examination for other CNS features. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the association of the bedside information with stroke. Model calibration was assessed using low (<5%), intermediate (5% to <10%), and high (≥10%) predicted probability risk categories. Results: Acute stroke was identified in 29 of 272 patients (10.7%). Associations with stroke were as follows: ABCD2 score (continuous) (odds ratio [OR] 1.74; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20–2.51), any other CNS features (OR 2.54; 95% CI 1.06–6.08), OM assessment (OR 2.82; 95% CI 0.96–8.30), and prior stroke (OR 0.48; 95% CI 0.05–4.57). No stroke cases were in the model's low-risk probability category (0/86, 0%), whereas 9 were in the moderate-risk category (9/94, 9.6%) and 20 were in the high-risk category (20/92, 21.7%). Conclusion: In acute dizziness presentations, the combination of ABCD2 score, general neurologic examination, and a specialized OM examination has the capacity to risk-stratify acute stroke on MRI. PMID:26511453

  14. Electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death beyond the left ventricular ejection fraction.

    PubMed

    Gatzoulis, Konstantinos A; Tsiachris, Dimitris; Arsenos, Petros; Tousoulis, Dimitris

    2016-01-26

    Sudden cardiac death threats ischaemic and dilated cardiomyopathy patients. Anti- arrhythmic protection may be provided to these patients with implanted cardiac defibrillators (ICD), after an efficient risk stratification approach. The proposed risk stratifier of an impaired left ventricular ejection fraction has limited sensitivity meaning that a significant number of victims will remain undetectable by this risk stratification approach because they have a preserved left ventricular systolic function. Current risk stratification strategies focus on combinations of non invasive methods like T wave alternans, late potentials, heart rate turbulence, deceleration capacity and others, with invasive methods like the electrophysiologic study. In the presence of an electrically impaired substrate with formed post myocardial infarction fibrotic zones, programmed ventricular stimulation provides important prognostic information for the selection of the patients expected to benefit from an ICD implantation, while due to its high negative predictive value, patients at low risk level may also be detected. Clustering evidence from different research groups and electrophysiologic labs support an electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death.

  15. Epigenetic Testing for Breast Cancer Risk Stratification

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-06-01

    no detectable methylation in lymphocytes. As part of this project we obtained RP-FNA samples from Carol Fabian. Dr. Fabian expels her RP-FNA samples...1943. 8. Lewis CM, Cler LR, Bu DW, et al. Promoter hypermethylation in benign breast epithelium in relation to predicted breast cancer risk. Clin...American Society of Preventive Oncology. May 2008;17(5):1051-1059. 10. Bu D, Lewis CM, Sarode V, et al. Identification of breast cancer DNA methylation

  16. Risk stratification after acute myocardial infarction: which studies are best?

    PubMed

    Figueredo, V M

    1996-04-01

    The prognosis for a patient who has survived an acute myocardial infarction depends on three general prognostic factors: (1) residual left ventricular function, (2) remaining viable myocardium at risk (residual ischemia), and (3) presence of substrate for the development of malignant arrhythmias. Multiple clinical and historical factors predict the presence of one or more of these prognostic indicators. Electrocardiographic exercise treadmill testing needs to be done in all patients with uncomplicated infarctions. Guidelines of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force are recommended for risk stratification in most patients after acute myocardial infarction.

  17. Cardiac risk stratification for postmyocardial infarction dental patients.

    PubMed

    Roberts, H W; Mitnitsky, E F

    2001-06-01

    Traditional dental management guidelines of myocardial infarction survivors mandate a 6-month waiting period before elective treatment can be considered. Technological advances in cardiac disease diagnosis, management, and revascularization treatment may make this older mandatory 6-month waiting period obsolete. The purposes of this literature review are to provide an overview of the historical development of cardiac risk stratification and discuss current developments and guidelines in cardiac risk assessment. We hope that this review and update will stimulate the development of updated dental guidelines for treating the cardiac patient.

  18. Quantitative risk stratification of oral leukoplakia with exfoliative cytology.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yao; Li, Jianying; Liu, Xiaoyong; Liu, Xudong; Khawar, Waqaar; Zhang, Xinyan; Wang, Fan; Chen, Xiaoxin; Sun, Zheng

    2015-01-01

    Exfoliative cytology has been widely used for early diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Test outcome is reported as "negative", "atypical" (defined as abnormal epithelial changes of uncertain diagnostic significance), and "positive" (defined as definitive cellular evidence of epithelial dysplasia or carcinoma). The major challenge is how to properly manage the "atypical" patients in order to diagnose OSCC early and prevent OSCC. In this study, we collected exfoliative cytology data, histopathology data, and clinical data of normal subjects (n=102), oral leukoplakia (OLK) patients (n=82), and OSCC patients (n=93), and developed a data analysis procedure for quantitative risk stratification of OLK patients. This procedure involving a step called expert-guided data transformation and reconstruction (EdTAR) which allows automatic data processing and reconstruction and reveals informative signals for subsequent risk stratification. Modern machine learning techniques were utilized to build statistical prediction models on the reconstructed data. Among the several models tested using resampling methods for parameter pruning and performance evaluation, Support Vector Machine (SVM) was found to be optimal with a high sensitivity (median>0.98) and specificity (median>0.99). With the SVM model, we constructed an oral cancer risk index (OCRI) which may potentially guide clinical follow-up of OLK patients. One OLK patient with an initial OCRI of 0.88 developed OSCC after 40 months of follow-up. In conclusion, we have developed a statistical method for qualitative risk stratification of OLK patients. This method may potentially improve cost-effectiveness of clinical follow-up of OLK patients, and help design clinical chemoprevention trial for high-risk populations.

  19. Role of risk stratification and genetics in sudden cardiac death.

    PubMed

    Rai, Vikrant; Agrawal, Devendra K

    2017-03-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a major public health issue due to its increasing incidence in the general population and the difficulty in identifying high-risk individuals. Nearly 300 000 - 350 000 patients in the United States and 4-5 million patients in the world die annually from SCD. Coronary artery disease and advanced heart failure are the main etiology for SCD. Ischemia of any cause precipitates lethal arrhythmias, and ventricular tachycardia and ventricular fibrillation are the most common lethal arrhythmias precipitating SCD. Pulseless electrical activity, bradyarrhythmia, and electromechanical dissociation also result in SCD. Most SCDs occur outside of the hospital setting, so it is difficult to estimate the public burden, which results in overestimating the incidence of SCD. The insufficiency and limited predictive value of various indicators and criteria for SCD result in the increasing incidence. As a result, there is a need to develop better risk stratification criteria and find modifiable variables to decrease the incidence. Primary and secondary prevention and treatment of SCD need further research. This critical review is focused on the etiology, risk factors, prognostic factors, and importance of risk stratification of SCD.

  20. Early Molecular Stratification of High-risk Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

    PubMed

    Hardie, Claire; Green, Kile; Jopson, Laura; Millar, Ben; Innes, Barbara; Pagan, Sarah; Tiniakos, Dina; Dyson, Jessica; Haniffa, Muzlifah; Bigley, Venetia; Jones, David E; Brain, John; Walker, Lucy J

    2016-12-01

    High-risk primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), defined by inadequate response at one year to Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), is associated with disease progression and liver transplantation. Stratifying high-risk patients early would facilitate improved approaches to care. Using long-term follow-up data to define risk at presentation, 6 high-risk PBC patients and 8 low-risk patients were identified from biopsy, transplant and biochemical archival records. Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) liver biopsies taken at presentation were graded (Scheuer and Nakanuma scoring) and gene expression analysed using the NanoString® nCounter PanCancer Immunity 770-gene panel. Principle component analysis (PCA) demonstrated discrete gene expression clustering between controls and high- and low-risk PBC. High-risk PBC was characterised by up-regulation of genes linked to T-cell activation and apoptosis, INF-γ signalling and leukocyte migration and down-regulation of those linked to the complement pathway. CDKN1a, up-regulated in high-risk PBC, correlated with significantly increased expression of its gene product, the senescence marker p21(WAF1/Cip), by biliary epithelial cells. Our findings suggest high- and low-risk PBC are biologically different from disease outset and senescence an early feature in high-risk disease. Identification of a high-risk 'signal' early from standard FFPE tissue sections has clear clinical utility allowing for patient stratification and second-line therapeutic intervention.

  1. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    PubMed Central

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

  2. Rationale and design of three observational, prospective cohort studies including biobanking to evaluate and improve diagnostics, management strategies and risk stratification in venous thromboembolism: the VTEval Project

    PubMed Central

    Frank, Bernd; Ariza, Liana; Lamparter, Heidrun; Grossmann, Vera; Prochaska, Jürgen H; Ullmann, Alexander; Kindler, Florentina; Weisser, Gerhard; Walter, Ulrich; Lackner, Karl J; Espinola-Klein, Christine; Münzel, Thomas; Konstantinides, Stavros V; Wild, Philipp S

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Venous thromboembolism (VTE) with its two manifestations deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) is a major public health problem. The VTEval Project aims to investigate numerous research questions on diagnosis, clinical management, treatment and prognosis of VTE, which have remained uncertain to date. Methods and analysis The VTEval Project consists of three observational, prospective cohort studies on VTE comprising cohorts of individuals with a clinical suspicion of acute PE (with or without DVT), with a clinical suspicion of acute DVT (without symptomatic PE) and with an incidental diagnosis of VTE (PE or DVT). The VTEval Project expects to enrol a total of approximately 2000 individuals with subsequent active and passive follow-up investigations over a time period of 5 years per participant. Time points for active follow-up investigations are at months 3, 6, 12, 24 and 36 after diagnosis (depending on the disease cohort); passive follow-up investigations via registry offices and the cancer registry are performed 48 and 60 months after diagnosis for all participants. Primary short-term outcome is defined by overall mortality (PE-related death and all other causes of death), primary long-term outcome by symptomatic VTE (PE-related death, recurrence of non-fatal PE or DVT). The VTEval Project includes three ‘all-comer’ studies and involves the standardised acquisition of high-quality data, covering the systematic assessment of VTE including symptoms, risk profile, psychosocial, environmental and lifestyle factors as well as clinical and subclinical disease, and it builds up a large state-of-the-art biorepository containing various materials from serial blood samplings. Ethics and dissemination The VTEval Project has been approved by the local data safety commissioner and the responsible ethics committee (reference no. 837.320.12 (8421-F)). Trial results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at national and

  3. Strategies for Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease Based on Risk Stratification by the ACC/AHA Lipid Guidelines, ATP III Guidelines, Coronary Calcium Scoring, and C-Reactive Protein, and a Global Treat-All Strategy: A Comparative--Effectiveness Modeling Study

    PubMed Central

    Galper, Benjamin Z.; Wang, Y. Claire; Einstein, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Several approaches have been proposed for risk-stratification and primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD), but their comparative and cost-effectiveness is unknown. Methods We constructed a state-transition microsimulation model to compare multiple approaches to the primary prevention of CHD in a simulated cohort of men aged 45–75 and women 55–75. Risk-stratification strategies included the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines on the treatment of blood cholesterol, the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines, and approaches based on coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring and C-reactive protein (CRP). Additionally we assessed a treat-all strategy in which all individuals were prescribed either moderate-dose or high-dose statins and all males received low-dose aspirin. Outcome measures included CHD events, costs, medication-related side effects, radiation-attributable cancers, and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) over a 30-year timeframe. Results Treat-all with high-dose statins dominated all other strategies for both men and women, gaining 15.7 million QALYs, preventing 7.3 million myocardial infarctions, and saving over $238 billion, compared to the status quo, far outweighing its associated adverse events including bleeding, hepatitis, myopathy, and new-onset diabetes. ACC/AHA guidelines were more cost-effective than ATP III guidelines for both men and women despite placing 8.7 million more people on statins. For women at low CHD risk, treat-all with high-dose statins was more likely to cause a statin-related adverse event than to prevent a CHD event. Conclusions Despite leading to a greater proportion of the population placed on statin therapy, the ACC/AHA guidelines are more cost-effective than ATP III. Even so, at generic prices, treating all men and women with statins and all men with low-dose aspirin appears to be more cost-effective than all risk-stratification approaches for the

  4. Autonomic Dysfunction and Risk Stratification Assessed from Heart Rate Pattern

    PubMed Central

    Günther, A; Witte, O.W; Hoyer, D

    2010-01-01

    The modulation of the autonomic nervous system (ANS) under physiological and pathophysiological conditions is in focus of recent research. Many patients with cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases display features of sympathovagal dysregulation. Measuring specific ANS parameters could improve risk stratification. Thus, the early diagnosis of ANS dysfunction in these patients poses a great challenge with high prognostic relevance. The most relevant methods and measures of Heart Rate Variability (HRV) analysis and HRV monitoring will be described in detail in this chapter. The grown importance of these easily obtainable heart rate patterns in stratifying the risk of patients with myocardial infarction and heart failure as well as ischemic stroke will be demonstrated based on recent clinical studies. In order to perspectively improve clinical management of these patients further large scale clinical investigations on the role of ANS dysfunction will be useful. PMID:21258571

  5. Bleeding risk stratification in an era of aggressive management of acute coronary syndromes

    PubMed Central

    Abu-Assi, Emad; Raposeiras-Roubín, Sergio; García-Acuña, José María; González-Juanatey, José Ramón

    2014-01-01

    Major bleeding is currently one of the most common non-cardiac complications observed in the treatment of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Hemorrhagic complications occur with a frequency of 1% to 10% during treatment for ACS. In fact, bleeding events are the most common extrinsic complication associated with ACS therapy. The identification of clinical characteristics and particularities of the antithrombin therapy associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic complications would make it possible to adopt prevention strategies, especially among those exposed to greater risk. The international societies of cardiology renewed emphasis on bleeding risk stratification in order to decide strategy and therapy for patients with ACS. With this review, we performed an update about the ACS bleeding risk scores most frequently used in daily clinical practice. PMID:25429326

  6. Risk stratification in heart failure using artificial neural networks.

    PubMed Central

    Atienza, F.; Martinez-Alzamora, N.; De Velasco, J. A.; Dreiseitl, S.; Ohno-Machado, L.

    2000-01-01

    Accurate risk stratification of heart failure patients is critical to improve management and outcomes. Heart failure is a complex multisystem disease in which several predictors are categorical. Neural network models have successfully been applied to several medical classification problems. Using a simple neural network, we assessed one-year prognosis in 132 patients, consecutively admitted with heart failure, by classifying them in 3 groups: death, readmission and one-year event-free survival. Given the small number of cases, the neural network model was trained using a resampling method. We identified relevant predictors using the Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) method, and estimated their mean effect on the 3 different outcomes. Only 9 individuals were misclassified. Neural networks have the potential to be a useful tool for making prognosis in the domain of heart failure. PMID:11079839

  7. Novel Molecular Imaging Approaches to Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Risk Stratification.

    PubMed

    Toczek, Jakub; Meadows, Judith L; Sadeghi, Mehran M

    2016-01-01

    Selection of patients for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair is currently based on aneurysm size, growth rate, and symptoms. Molecular imaging of biological processes associated with aneurysm growth and rupture, for example, inflammation and matrix remodeling, could improve patient risk stratification and lead to a reduction in abdominal aortic aneurysm morbidity and mortality. (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography and ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide magnetic resonance imaging are 2 novel approaches to abdominal aortic aneurysm imaging evaluated in clinical trials. A variety of other tracers, including those that target inflammatory cells and proteolytic enzymes (eg, integrin αvβ3 and matrix metalloproteinases), have proven effective in preclinical models of abdominal aortic aneurysm and show great potential for clinical translation.

  8. Cost-effectiveness of various risk stratification methods for asymptomatic ventricular pre-excitation.

    PubMed

    Czosek, Richard J; Anderson, Jeffrey; Cassedy, Amy; Spar, David S; Knilans, Timothy K

    2013-07-15

    Accessory pathways with "high-risk" properties confer a small but potential risk of sudden cardiac death. Pediatric guidelines advocate for either risk stratification or ablation in patients with ventricular pre-excitation but do not advocate specific methodology. We sought to compare the cost of differing risk-stratification methodologies in pediatric patients with ventricular pre-excitation in this single institutional, retrospective cohort study of asymptomatic pediatric patients who underwent risk stratification for ventricular pre-excitation. Institutional methodology consisted of stratification using graded exercise testing (GXT) followed by esophageal testing in patients without loss of pre-excitation and ultimately ablation in high-risk patients or patients who became clinically symptomatic during follow-up. A decision analysis model was used to compare this methodology with hypothetical methodologies using different components of the stratification technique and an "ablate all" method. One hundred and two pediatric patients with asymptomatic ventricular pre-excitation underwent staged risk stratification; 73% of patients were deemed low risk and avoided ablation and the remaining 27% ultimately were successfully ablated. The use of esophageal testing was associated with a 23% (p ≤0.0001) reduction in cost compared with GXT stratification alone and a 48% (p ≤0.0001) reduction compared with the "ablate all" model. GXT as a lone stratification method was also associated with a 15% cost reduction (p ≤0.0001) compared with the "ablate all" method. In conclusion, risk stratification of pediatric patients with asymptomatic ventricular pre-excitation is associated with reduced cost. These outcomes of cost-effectiveness need to be combined with the risks and benefits associated with ablation and risk stratification.

  9. Implementing system-wide risk stratification approaches: A review of critical success and failure factors.

    PubMed

    Huckel Schneider, Carmen; Gillespie, James A; Wilson, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    Risk stratification has become a widely used tool for linking people identified at risk of health deterioration to the most appropriate evidence-based care. This article systematically reviews recent literature to determine key factors that have been identified as critical enablers and/or barriers to successful implementation of risk stratification tools at a system level. A systematic search found 23 articles and four promising protocols for inclusion in the review, covering the use to 20 different risk stratification tools. These articles reported on only a small fraction of the risk stratification tools used in health systems; suggesting that while the development and statistical validation of risk stratification algorithms is widely reported, there has been little published evaluation of how they are implemented in real-world settings. Controlled studies provided some evidence that the use of risk stratification tools in combination with a care management plan offer patient benefits and that the use of a risk stratification tool to determine components of a care management plan may contribute to reductions in hospital readmissions, patient satisfaction and improved patient outcomes. Studies with the strongest focus on implementation used qualitative and case study methods. Among these, the literature converged on four key areas of implementation that were found to be critical for overcoming barriers to success: the engagement of clinicians and safeguarding equity, both of which address barriers of acceptance; the health system context to address administrative, political and system design barriers; and data management and integration to address logistical barriers.

  10. Cardiac risk stratification in cardiac rehabilitation programs: a review of protocols

    PubMed Central

    da Silva, Anne Kastelianne França; Barbosa, Marianne Penachini da Costa de Rezende; Bernardo, Aline Fernanda Barbosa; Vanderlei, Franciele Marques; Pacagnelli, Francis Lopes; Vanderlei, Luiz Carlos Marques

    2014-01-01

    Objective Gather and describe general characteristics of different protocols of risk stratification for cardiac patients undergoing exercise. Methods We conducted searches in LILACS, IBECS, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, and SciELO electronic databases, using the following descriptors: Cardiovascular Disease, Rehabilitation Centers, Practice Guideline, Exercise and Risk Stratification in the past 20 years. Results Were selected eight studies addressing methods of risk stratification in patients undergoing exercise. Conclusion None of the methods described could cover every situation the patient can be subjected to; however, they are essential to exercise prescription. PMID:25140477

  11. Population-based genetic risk prediction and stratification for ovarian cancer: views from women at high risk.

    PubMed

    Rahman, Belinda; Meisel, Susanne F; Fraser, Lindsay; Side, Lucy; Gessler, Sue; Wardle, Jane; Lanceley, Anne

    2015-03-01

    There is an opportunity to improve outcomes for ovarian cancer (OC) through advances in risk stratification, early detection and diagnosis. A population-based OC genetic risk prediction and stratification program is being developed. A previous focus group study with individuals from the general population showed support for the proposed program. This qualitative interview study explores the attitudes of women at high risk of OC. Eight women participated in one-on-one, in-depth, semi-structured interviews to explore: experiences of learning of OC risk, risk perceptions, OC knowledge and awareness, and opinions on risk stratification approach. There was evidence of strong support for the proposed program. Benefits were seen as providing reassurance to women at low risk, and reducing worry in women at high risk through appropriate clinical management. Stratification into 'low' and 'high' risk groups was well-received. Participants were more hesitant about stratification to the 'intermediate' risk group. The data suggest formats to effectively communicate OC risk estimates will require careful thought. Interactions with GPs were highlighted as a barrier to OC risk assessment and diagnosis. These results are encouraging for the possible introduction and uptake of a risk prediction and stratification program for OC in the general population.

  12. Selectively predictive calcium supplementation using NCCN risk stratification system after thyroidectomy with differentiated thyroid cancer

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Ronghao; Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Fenghua; Fan, Jinchuan; Yuan, Ying; Li, Chao

    2015-01-01

    Background: Hypocalcemia is a common complication following thyroidectomy. To explore reasonable and simple methods for predicting postoperative hypocalcemia and identify the optimal strategies for selective calcium supplement are meaningful for surgeon. Methods: Based on the NCCN risk stratification system, patients were divided into 4 groups (A-D): low-risk group A, who only underwent limited thyroidectomy (LT) and high-risk groups B, C and D, who had received total thyroidectomy (TT) and selective central and/or lateral neck dissection (SND). After surgery, group C patients were orally given calcium gluconate and group D patients were intravenously given calcium 2 g/day for 7 days, while group B patients did not receive any calcium supplement. Serum calcium and parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels were collected before and after surgery. The incidence of asymptomatic and symptomatic hypocalcemia in each group was recorded. Results: A total of 132 patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) were included who received surgical treatment. No a significant change was observed in serum calcium and PTH levels in group A, while significant decreases in serum calcium and PTH levels were seen in group B (P < 0.05). Intravenous calcium supplement in group D resulted in a more rapid recovery in serum calcium levels (P < 0.05). The incidences of symptomatic hypocalcemia and asymptomatic hypocalcemia were significantly lower in group A and group D respectively compared to the other groups (All P values < 0.05). In group B, a highest asymptomatic and symptomatic hypocalcemia incidence was detected. Conclusion: Selective calcium supplementation for DTC based on NCCN risk stratification system could be recommended for the high-risk patients. PMID:26885165

  13. Incorporation of CEA Improves Risk Stratification in Stage II Colon Cancer.

    PubMed

    Spindler, Blake A; Bergquist, John R; Thiels, Cornelius A; Habermann, Elizabeth B; Kelley, Scott R; Larson, David W; Mathis, Kellie L

    2017-03-13

    High-risk features are used to direct adjuvant therapy for stage II colon cancer. Currently, high-risk features are identified postoperatively, limiting preoperative risk stratification. We hypothesized carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) can improve preoperative risk stratification for stage II colon cancer. The National Cancer Database (NCDB 2004-2009) was reviewed for stage II colon adenocarcinoma patients undergoing curative intent resection. A novel risk stratification including both traditional high-risk features (T4 lesion, <12 lymph nodes sampled, and poor differentiation) and elevated CEA was developed. Unadjusted Kaplan-Meier and adjusted Cox proportional hazards analyzed overall survival. Concordance Probability Estimates (CPE) assessed discrimination. Seventy-four thousand nine hundred forty-five patients were identified; 40,844 (54.5%) had CEA levels reported and were included. Chemotherapy administration was similar between normal and elevated CEA groups (23.8 vs. 25.1%, p = 0.003). Compared to patients with CEA elevation, 5-year overall survival in patients with normal CEA was improved (74.5 vs. 63.4%, p < 0.001). Restratification incorporating CEA resulted in reclassification of 6912 patients (16.9%) from average to high risk. CPE increased for novel risk stratification (0.634 vs. 0.612, SE = 0.005). The routinely available CEA test improved risk stratification for stage II colon cancer. CEA not only may improve staging of colon cancer but may also help guide additional therapy.

  14. Performance and agreement of risk stratification instruments for postoperative delirium in persons aged 50 years or older.

    PubMed

    Jansen, Carolien J; Absalom, Anthony R; de Bock, Geertruida H; van Leeuwen, Barbara L; Izaks, Gerbrand J

    2014-01-01

    Several risk stratification instruments for postoperative delirium in older people have been developed because early interventions may prevent delirium. We investigated the performance and agreement of nine commonly used risk stratification instruments in an independent validation cohort of consecutive elective and emergency surgical patients aged ≥50 years with ≥1 risk factor for postoperative delirium. Data was collected prospectively. Delirium was diagnosed according to DSM-IV-TR criteria. The observed incidence of postoperative delirium was calculated per risk score per risk stratification instrument. In addition, the risk stratification instruments were compared in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and positive and negative predictive value. Finally, the positive agreement between the risk stratification instruments was calculated. When data required for an exact implementation of the original risk stratification instruments was not available, we used alternative data that was comparable. The study population included 292 patients: 60% men; mean age (SD), 66 (8) years; 90% elective surgery. The incidence of postoperative delirium was 9%. The maximum observed incidence per risk score was 50% (95%CI, 15-85%); for eight risk stratification instruments, the maximum observed incidence per risk score was ≤25%. The AUC (95%CI) for the risk stratification instruments varied between 0.50 (0.36-0.64) and 0.66 (0.48-0.83). No AUC was statistically significant from 0.50 (p≥0.11). Positive predictive values of the risk stratification instruments varied between 0-25%, negative predictive values between 89-95%. Positive agreement varied between 0-66%. No risk stratification instrument showed clearly superior performance. In conclusion, in this independent validation cohort, the performance and agreement of commonly used risk stratification instruments for postoperative delirium was poor. Although some caution is needed

  15. Recommendations on breast cancer screening and prevention in the context of implementing risk stratification: impending changes to current policies.

    PubMed

    Gagnon, J; Lévesque, E; Borduas, F; Chiquette, J; Diorio, C; Duchesne, N; Dumais, M; Eloy, L; Foulkes, W; Gervais, N; Lalonde, L; L'Espérance, B; Meterissian, S; Provencher, L; Richard, J; Savard, C; Trop, I; Wong, N; Knoppers, B M; Simard, J

    2016-12-01

    In recent years, risk stratification has sparked interest as an innovative approach to disease screening and prevention. The approach effectively personalizes individual risk, opening the way to screening and prevention interventions that are adapted to subpopulations. The international perspective project, which is developing risk stratification for breast cancer, aims to support the integration of its screening approach into clinical practice through comprehensive tool-building. Policies and guidelines for risk stratification-unlike those for population screening programs, which are currently well regulated-are still under development. Indeed, the development of guidelines for risk stratification reflects the translational aspects of perspective. Here, we describe the risk stratification process that was devised in the context of perspective, and we then explain the consensus-based method used to develop recommendations for breast cancer screening and prevention in a risk-stratification approach. Lastly, we discuss how the recommendations might affect current screening policies.

  16. Risk stratification of thyroid nodules on ultrasonography with the French TI-RADS: description and reflections

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The widespread use of ultrasonography places it in a key position for use in the risk stratification of thyroid nodules. The French proposal is a five-tier system, our version of a thyroid imaging reporting and database system (TI-RADS), which includes a standardized vocabulary and report and a quantified risk assessment. It allows the selection of the nodules that should be referred for fine-needle aspiration biopsies. Effort should be directed towards merging the different risk stratification systems utilized around the world and testing this unified system with multi-center studies. PMID:26324117

  17. Applying risk assessment models in non-surgical patients: effective risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Eldor, A

    1999-08-01

    Pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis are serious complications of non-surgical patients, but scarcity of data documenting prophylaxis means antithrombotic therapy is rarely used. Prediction of risk is complicated by the variation in the medical conditions associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE), and lack of data defining risk in different groups. Accurate risk assessment is further confounded by inherited or acquired factors for VTE, additional risk due to medical interventions, and interactions between risk factors. Acquired and inherited risk factors may underlie thromboembolic complications in a range of conditions, including pregnancy, ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction and cancer. Risk stratification may be feasible in non-surgical patients by considering individual risk factors and their cumulative effects. Current risk assessment models require expansion and modification to reflect emerging evidence in the non-surgical field. A large on-going study of prophylaxis with low-molecular-weight heparin in non-surgical patients will clarify our understanding of the components of risk, and assist in developing therapy recommendations.

  18. New Methods for the Analysis of Heartbeat Behavior in Risk Stratification

    PubMed Central

    Glass, Leon; Lerma, Claudia; Shrier, Alvin

    2011-01-01

    Developing better methods for risk stratification for tachyarrhythmic sudden cardiac remains a major challenge for physicians and scientists. Since the transition from sinus rhythm to ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation happens by different mechanisms in different people, it is unrealistic to think that a single measure will be adequate to provide a good index for risk stratification. We analyze the dynamical properties of ventricular premature complexes over 24 h in an effort to understand the underlying mechanisms of ventricular arrhythmias and to better understand the arrhythmias that occur in individual patients. Two dimensional density plots, called heartprints, correlate characteristic features of the dynamics of premature ventricular complexes and the sinus rate. Heartprints show distinctive characteristics in individual patients. Based on a better understanding of the natures of transitions from sinus rhythm to sudden cardiac and the mechanisms of arrhythmia prior to cardiac arrest, it should be possible to develop better methods for risk stratification. PMID:22144963

  19. Risk stratification using data from electronic medical records better predicts suicide risks than clinician assessments

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background To date, our ability to accurately identify patients at high risk from suicidal behaviour, and thus to target interventions, has been fairly limited. This study examined a large pool of factors that are potentially associated with suicide risk from the comprehensive electronic medical record (EMR) and to derive a predictive model for 1–6 month risk. Methods 7,399 patients undergoing suicide risk assessment were followed up for 180 days. The dataset was divided into a derivation and validation cohorts of 4,911 and 2,488 respectively. Clinicians used an 18-point checklist of known risk factors to divide patients into low, medium, or high risk. Their predictive ability was compared with a risk stratification model derived from the EMR data. The model was based on the continuation-ratio ordinal regression method coupled with lasso (which stands for least absolute shrinkage and selection operator). Results In the year prior to suicide assessment, 66.8% of patients attended the emergency department (ED) and 41.8% had at least one hospital admission. Administrative and demographic data, along with information on prior self-harm episodes, as well as mental and physical health diagnoses were predictive of high-risk suicidal behaviour. Clinicians using the 18-point checklist were relatively poor in predicting patients at high-risk in 3 months (AUC 0.58, 95% CIs: 0.50 – 0.66). The model derived EMR was superior (AUC 0.79, 95% CIs: 0.72 – 0.84). At specificity of 0.72 (95% CIs: 0.70-0.73) the EMR model had sensitivity of 0.70 (95% CIs: 0.56-0.83). Conclusion Predictive models applied to data from the EMR could improve risk stratification of patients presenting with potential suicidal behaviour. The predictive factors include known risks for suicide, but also other information relating to general health and health service utilisation. PMID:24628849

  20. Recommendations on breast cancer screening and prevention in the context of implementing risk stratification: impending changes to current policies

    PubMed Central

    Gagnon, J.; Lévesque, E.; Borduas, F.; Chiquette, J.; Diorio, C.; Duchesne, N.; Dumais, M.; Eloy, L.; Foulkes, W.; Gervais, N.; Lalonde, L.; L’Espérance, B.; Meterissian, S.; Provencher, L.; Richard, J.; Savard, C.; Trop, I.; Wong, N.; Knoppers, B.M.; Simard, J.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, risk stratification has sparked interest as an innovative approach to disease screening and prevention. The approach effectively personalizes individual risk, opening the way to screening and prevention interventions that are adapted to subpopulations. The international perspective project, which is developing risk stratification for breast cancer, aims to support the integration of its screening approach into clinical practice through comprehensive tool-building. Policies and guidelines for risk stratification—unlike those for population screening programs, which are currently well regulated—are still under development. Indeed, the development of guidelines for risk stratification reflects the translational aspects of perspective. Here, we describe the risk stratification process that was devised in the context of perspective, and we then explain the consensus-based method used to develop recommendations for breast cancer screening and prevention in a risk-stratification approach. Lastly, we discuss how the recommendations might affect current screening policies. PMID:28050152

  1. Use of risk stratification to guide ambulatory management of neutropenic fever. Australian Consensus Guidelines 2011 Steering Committee.

    PubMed

    Worth, L J; Lingaratnam, S; Taylor, A; Hayward, A M; Morrissey, S; Cooney, J; Bastick, P A; Eek, R W; Wei, A; Thursky, K A

    2011-01-01

    Utilization of risk-stratification tools in the setting of neutropenic fever is currently limited by inadequate knowledge and lack of awareness. Within this context, the approach to management of low-risk patients with neutropenic fever is inconsistent with the available evidence across many Australian treating centres. These clinical guidelines define and clarify an accepted standard of care for this patient group given the current evidence base. The Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer risk index is presented as the preferred risk assessment tool for determining patient risk. Suitability of ambulatory care within specific patient populations is discussed, with defined eligibility criteria provided to guide clinical decision-making. Detailed recommendations for implementing appropriate ambulatory strategies, such as early discharge and outpatient antibiotic therapy, are also provided. Due consideration is given to infrastructural requirements and other supportive measures at a resourcing and operational level. An analysis of the relevant health economics is also presented.

  2. [Diagnosis, sudden death risk stratification, and treatment of main long QT syndrome molecular-genetic variants].

    PubMed

    Shkol'nikova, M A; Kharlap, M S; Il'darova, R A; Bereznitskaia, V V; Kalinin, L A

    2011-01-01

    Inherited long QT syndrome (LQTS) refers to the primary electrical diseases of the heart. It is characterized by QT prolongation on resting ECG and syncope due to life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias. This review focuses on diagnosis, differential diagnosis, risk stratification of sudden cardiac death, and treatment strategy of patients with most prevalent genetic fOrms of LQTS - LQT1, LQT2 and LQT3, which accounted for about 90% of all genetically confirmed cases. Recent advances in understanding of relationship between clinical, electrocardiographic features (on ECG, body surface mapping, stress test) and genetic variants of LQT presented. Characteristics of syncopal events and ECG features of LQTl, LQT2 and LQT3 in the majority of cases are helpful to make an appropriate choice for therapy, even before positive result of molecular genetic testing. Management has focused on the use of beta blockers as first-line treatment and exclusion of triggers of life-threatening arrhythmia which are specific for each molecular-genetic variant. Implantation of cardioverter defibrillator for secondary prevention of sudden death in the high-risk patients or patients with insufficient effect of antiarrhythmic therapy is required.

  3. Risk stratification in ductal carcinoma in situ: the role of genomic testing.

    PubMed

    Freedman, Gary M

    2013-02-01

    From the earliest days of conservative surgery for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast, there have been attempts to identify patients who may not need postoperative radiation. Randomized prospective trials have not identified a population for whom there is no benefit to radiation. However, decades of studies of clinical, radiological and pathologic correlates to local recurrence have led to criteria for a patient subgroup at low risk for local recurrence after omission of radiation. Gene expression profiling for invasive breast cancer has been used to identify patients at low, intermediate or high risk for distant recurrence. Application of this methodology to DCIS aims to identify patients at low, intermediate or high risk for local recurrence. Whether this method of risk stratification will prove more accurate than clinical, radiological and pathologic risk stratification, or identify patients with little to no clinical benefit from radiation, remains to be seen.

  4. Comparison of dermatoscopic ABCD rule and risk stratification in the diagnosis of malignant melanoma.

    PubMed

    Lorentzen, H; Weismann, K; Kenet, R O; Secher, L; Larsen, F G

    2000-01-01

    For didactic and documentation purposes the dermatoscopic ABCD rule and the dermatoscopic risk stratification have been proposed. The aim of this investigation was to compare the ability of the 2 methods to separate patients with cutaneous malignant melanoma from individuals with other pigmented skin lesions. Three dermatologists, experienced users of dermatoscopy, assessed macroscopic clinical and dermatoscopic slides from 258 patients referred to the skin cancer outpatient clinic by the ABCD rule and risk stratification methods. Diagnostic performance of the 2 methods was compared by receiver operating characteristics curve analysis. When all pigmented skin lesions were compared, there was a trend for the observers to perform better using risk stratification. When only lesions with a well-defined pigment network were included, the diagnostic performance of the risk stratification method was superior to the dermatoscopic ABCD rule (areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve median 0.93 vs. 0.80, p<0.004) for all observers. The agreement between the 2 methods was moderate to substantial (kappa coefficient 0.53-0.62). More melanomas were identified when the rules were combined. The dermatoscopic ABCD rule has been accepted as a standard for identifying melanomas with the dermatoscope, but should be considered secondary to pigment network analysis.

  5. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease heterogeneity: challenges for health risk assessment, stratification and management

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background and hypothesis Heterogeneity in clinical manifestations and disease progression in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) lead to consequences for patient health risk assessment, stratification and management. Implicit with the classical "spill over" hypothesis is that COPD heterogeneity is driven by the pulmonary events of the disease. Alternatively, we hypothesized that COPD heterogeneities result from the interplay of mechanisms governing three conceptually different phenomena: 1) pulmonary disease, 2) systemic effects of COPD and 3) co-morbidity clustering, each of them with their own dynamics. Objective and method To explore the potential of a systems analysis of COPD heterogeneity focused on skeletal muscle dysfunction and on co-morbidity clustering aiming at generating predictive modeling with impact on patient management. To this end, strategies combining deterministic modeling and network medicine analyses of the Biobridge dataset were used to investigate the mechanisms of skeletal muscle dysfunction. An independent data driven analysis of co-morbidity clustering examining associated genes and pathways was performed using a large dataset (ICD9-CM data from Medicare, 13 million people). Finally, a targeted network analysis using the outcomes of the two approaches (skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering) explored shared pathways between these phenomena. Results (1) Evidence of abnormal regulation of skeletal muscle bioenergetics and skeletal muscle remodeling showing a significant association with nitroso-redox disequilibrium was observed in COPD; (2) COPD patients presented higher risk for co-morbidity clustering than non-COPD patients increasing with ageing; and, (3) the on-going targeted network analyses suggests shared pathways between skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering. Conclusions The results indicate the high potential of a systems approach to address COPD heterogeneity. Significant knowledge gaps

  6. Mortality Risk Stratification in Fontan Patients Who Underwent Heart Transplantation.

    PubMed

    Berg, Christopher J; Bauer, Brenton S; Hageman, Abbie; Aboulhosn, Jamil A; Reardon, Leigh C

    2017-03-01

    The number of patients who require orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) for failing Fontan physiology continues to grow; however, the methods and tools to evaluate risk of OHT are limited. This study aimed to identify a set of preoperative variables and characteristics that were associated with a greater risk of postoperative mortality in patients who received OHT for failing Fontan physiology. Thirty-six Fontan patients were identified as having undergone OHT at University of California-Los Angeles Medical Center from 1991 to 2014. Data were collected retrospectively and analyzed. The primary end point was designated as postoperative mortality. After an average follow-up time of 3.5 years, 17 (44%) patients suffered postoperative mortality. Patient characteristics including (1) age <18 years at the time of OHT, (2) Fontan-OHT interval of <10 years, (3) systemic ventricular ejection fraction <20%, (4) moderate-to-severe atrioventricular valve insufficiency, (5) an elevated Model of End-stage Liver Disease, eXcluding INR score, or (6) need for advanced mechanical support before surgery were associated with an increased incidence of postoperative mortality. Using these risk factors, we present a theoretical framework to stratify risk of postoperative death in failing Fontan patients after OHT. In conclusion, a method such as this may aid in the transplantation evaluation and listing process of patients with failing Fontan physiology.

  7. Raynaud’s phenomenon and digital ischemia: a practical approach to risk stratification, diagnosis and management

    PubMed Central

    McMahan, Zsuzsanna H.; Wigley, Fredrick M.

    2015-01-01

    Digital ischemia is a painful and often disfiguring event. Such an ischemic event often leads to tissue loss and can significantly affect the patient’s quality of life. Digital ischemia can be secondary to a vasculopathy, vasculitis, embolic disease, trauma, or extrinsic vascular compression. It is an especially serious complication in patients with scleroderma. Risk stratification of patients with scleroderma at risk for digital ischemia is now possible with clinical assessment and autoantibody profiles. Because there are a variety of conditions that lead to digital ischemia, it is important to understand the pathophysiology underlying each ischemic presentation in order to target therapy appropriately. Significant progress has been made in the last two decades in defining the pathophysiological processes leading to digital ischemia in rheumatic diseases. In this article we review the risk stratification, diagnosis, and management of patients with digital ischemia and provide a practical approach to therapy, particularly in scleroderma. PMID:26523153

  8. Improving Clinical Risk Stratification at Diagnosis in Primary Prostate Cancer: A Prognostic Modelling Study

    PubMed Central

    Wright, Karen A.; Muir, Kenneth R.; Gavin, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Over 80% of the nearly 1 million men diagnosed with prostate cancer annually worldwide present with localised or locally advanced non-metastatic disease. Risk stratification is the cornerstone for clinical decision making and treatment selection for these men. The most widely applied stratification systems use presenting prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration, biopsy Gleason grade, and clinical stage to classify patients as low, intermediate, or high risk. There is, however, significant heterogeneity in outcomes within these standard groupings. The International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) has recently adopted a prognosis-based pathological classification that has yet to be included within a risk stratification system. Here we developed and tested a new stratification system based on the number of individual risk factors and incorporating the new ISUP prognostic score. Methods and Findings Diagnostic clinicopathological data from 10,139 men with non-metastatic prostate cancer were available for this study from the Public Health England National Cancer Registration Service Eastern Office. This cohort was divided into a training set (n = 6,026; 1,557 total deaths, with 462 from prostate cancer) and a testing set (n = 4,113; 1,053 total deaths, with 327 from prostate cancer). The median follow-up was 6.9 y, and the primary outcome measure was prostate-cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). An external validation cohort (n = 1,706) was also used. Patients were first categorised as low, intermediate, or high risk using the current three-stratum stratification system endorsed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines. The variables used to define the groups (PSA concentration, Gleason grading, and clinical stage) were then used to sub-stratify within each risk category by testing the individual and then combined number of risk factors. In addition, we incorporated the new ISUP prognostic score as a discriminator

  9. Risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases: Opportunities for clinicians and trialists

    PubMed Central

    Trivedi, Palak J.; Corpechot, Christophe; Pares, Albert

    2015-01-01

    Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are infrequent autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases, that disproportionate to their incidence and prevalence, remain very important causes of morbidity and mortality for patients with liver disease. Mechanistic insights spanning genetic risks and biological pathways to liver injury and fibrosis have led to a renewed interest in developing therapies beyond ursodeoxycholic acid that are aimed at both slowing disease course and improving quality of life. International cohort studies have facilitated a much greater understanding of disease heterogeneity, and in so doing highlight the opportunity to provide patients with a more individualized assessment of their risk of progressive liver disease, based on clinical, laboratory, or imaging findings. This has led to a new approach to patient care that focuses on risk stratification (both high and low risk); and furthermore allows such stratification tools to help identify patient subgroups at greatest potential benefit from inclusion in clinical trials. In this article, we review the applicability and validity of risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver disease, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of current and emergent approaches. (Hepatology 2016;63:644–659) PMID:26290473

  10. Midregional Proadrenomedullin Improves Risk Stratification beyond Surgical Risk Scores in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

    PubMed Central

    Schuetz, Philipp; Huber, Andreas; Müller, Beat; Maisano, Francesco; Taramasso, Maurizio; Moarof, Igal; Obeid, Slayman; Stähli, Barbara E.; Cahenzly, Martin; Binder, Ronald K.; Liebetrau, Christoph; Möllmann, Helge; Kim, Won-Keun; Hamm, Christian; Lüscher, Thomas F.

    2015-01-01

    Background Conventional surgical risk scores lack accuracy in risk stratification of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Elevated levels of midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) levels are associated with adverse outcome not only in patients with manifest chronic disease states, but also in the general population. Objectives We investigated the predictive value of MR-proADM for mortality in an unselected contemporary TAVR population. Methods We prospectively included 153 patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVR from September 2013 to August 2014. This population was compared to an external validation cohort of 205 patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVR. The primary endpoint was all cause mortality. Results During a median follow-up of 258 days, 17 out of 153 patients who underwent TAVR died (11%). Patients with MR-proADM levels above the 75th percentile (≥ 1.3 nmol/l) had higher mortality (31% vs. 4%, HR 8.9, 95% CI 3.0–26.0, P < 0.01), whereas patients with EuroSCORE II scores above the 75th percentile (> 6.8) only showed a trend towards higher mortality (18% vs. 9%, HR 2.1, 95% CI 0.8–5.6, P = 0.13). The Harrell’s C-statistic was 0.58 (95% CI 0.45–0.82) for the EuroSCORE II, and consideration of baseline MR-proADM levels significantly improved discrimination (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI 0.71–0.92, P = 0.01). In bivariate analysis adjusted for EuroSCORE II, MR-proADM levels ≥1.3 nmol/l persisted as an independent predictor of mortality (HR 9.9, 95% CI (3.1–31.3), P <0.01) and improved the model’s net reclassification index (0.89, 95% CI (0.28–1.59). These results were confirmed in the independent validation cohort. Conclusions Our study identified MR-proADM as a novel predictor of mortality in patients undergoing TAVR. In the future, MR-proADM should be added to the commonly used EuroSCORE II for better risk stratification of patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis. PMID

  11. Risk stratification and selection for statin therapy: going beyond Framingham.

    PubMed

    Fitchett, David H; Mancini, G B John; Gregoire, Jean; Anderson, Todd; McPherson, Ruth

    2014-06-01

    Decisions for statin therapy in the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease are generally made using the 10-year Framingham Risk Score (FRS). Even when a family history of premature cardiovascular disease is taken into account, there is often ambiguity about the need for statin therapy for patients with a 10-year FRS of 5%-19% and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol <3.5 mmol/L. Current Canadian dyslipidemia guidelines recommend consideration of a diversity of other factors, including biochemical measurements and imaging studies to help determine whether the calculated FRS might be misleadingly low and whether statin therapy might, therefore, be prudent. However, efficient use of the plethora of secondary factors makes this decision process itself potentially ambiguous. This brief summary provides a practical approach for using clinical information, basic biochemical tests, and more specialized tests, such as carotid ultrasound and coronary artery calcium scoring, to identify groups of patients at greater risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease than suggested by the FRS.

  12. Electrocardiographic methods for diagnosis and risk stratification in the Brugada syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Naseef, Abdulrahman; Behr, Elijah R.; Batchvarov, Velislav N.

    2014-01-01

    The Brugada syndrome (BrS) is a malignant, genetically-determined, arrhythmic syndrome manifesting as syncope or sudden cardiac death (SCD) in individuals with structurally normal hearts. The diagnosis of the BrS is mainly based on the presence of a spontaneous or Na + channel blocker induced characteristic, electrocardiographic (ECG) pattern (type 1 or coved Brugada ECG pattern) typically seen in leads V1 and V2 recorded from the 4th to 2nd intercostal (i.c.) spaces. This pattern needs to be distinguished from similar ECG changes due to other causes (Brugada ECG phenocopies). This review focuses mainly on the ECG-based methods for diagnosis and arrhythmia risk assessment in the BrS. Presently, the main unresolved clinical problem is the identification of those patients at high risk of SCD who need implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD), which is the only therapy with proven efficacy. Current guidelines recommend ICD implantation only in patients with spontaneous type 1 ECG pattern, and either history of aborted cardiac arrest or documented sustained VT (class I), or syncope of arrhythmic origin (class IIa) because they are at high risk of recurrent arrhythmic events (up to 10% or more annually for those with aborted cardiac arrest). The majority of BrS patients are asymptomatic when diagnosed and considered to have low risk (around 0.5% annually) and therefore not indicated for ICD. The majority of SCD victims in the BrS, however, had no symptoms prior to the fatal event and therefore were not protected with an ICD. While some ECG markers such as QRS fragmentation, infero-lateral early repolarisation, and abnormal late potentials on signal-averaged ECG are known to be linked to increased arrhythmic risk, they are not sufficiently sensitive or specific. Potential novel ECG-based strategies for risk stratification are discussed based on computerised methods for depolarisation and repolarisation analysis, a composite approach targeting several major

  13. Stratification, competition and risk distribution: health insurance in Germany and the United States.

    PubMed

    Abel, T; Wysong, J A

    1992-01-01

    Issues of unequal risk distribution among sickness funds are given increasing attention in the current discussions on the reform of the statutory health insurance system in Germany. This paper examines the structural determinants of risk distribution and points toward the links between social stratification, competition, health risk and insurance status. A model showing the links between basic structural determinants is presented. Using health survey data from Germany and the U.S., statistical analyses are conducted. The results support the model and indicate its applicability for both health care systems. The paper concludes by indicating the relevance of such findings for health policy and future research.

  14. Short-term vs. long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Schulz, Steffen; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antoni; Caminal, Pere

    2013-01-01

    In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3–2% of the general population. The investigation of 24 h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV) for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF). However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive, and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30 min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24 h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients [221 at low risk (IHFLR) and 35 at high risk (IHFHR)] (a) 24 h beat-to-beat time series (b) the first 30 min segment (c) the 30 min most stationary day segment and (d) the 30 min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain) and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 h and for each 30 min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p < 0.01) discriminating between IHFLR and IHFHR. For multivariate risk stratification, optimal mixed parameter sets consisting of 5 indices (clinical and nonlinear) achieved 80.4% AUC (area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics) from 24 h HRV analysis, 84.3% AUC from first 30 min, 82.2 % AUC from daytime 30 min and 81.7% AUC from nighttime 30 min. The optimal parameter set obtained from the first 30 min showed nearly the same classification power when compared to the optimal 24 h-parameter set. As results from stationary daytime and nighttime, 30 min segments indicate that short-term analyses of 30 min may provide at least a comparable risk stratification power in IHF in comparison to a 24 h analysis period. PMID:24379785

  15. Short-term vs. long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Schulz, Steffen; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antoni; Caminal, Pere

    2013-01-01

    In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24 h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV) for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF). However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive, and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30 min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24 h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients [221 at low risk (IHFLR) and 35 at high risk (IHFHR)] (a) 24 h beat-to-beat time series (b) the first 30 min segment (c) the 30 min most stationary day segment and (d) the 30 min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain) and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 h and for each 30 min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p < 0.01) discriminating between IHFLR and IHFHR. For multivariate risk stratification, optimal mixed parameter sets consisting of 5 indices (clinical and nonlinear) achieved 80.4% AUC (area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics) from 24 h HRV analysis, 84.3% AUC from first 30 min, 82.2 % AUC from daytime 30 min and 81.7% AUC from nighttime 30 min. The optimal parameter set obtained from the first 30 min showed nearly the same classification power when compared to the optimal 24 h-parameter set. As results from stationary daytime and nighttime, 30 min segments indicate that short-term analyses of 30 min may provide at least a comparable risk stratification power in IHF in comparison to a 24 h analysis period.

  16. Diagnosis, risk stratification, and response evaluation in classical myeloproliferative neoplasms

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Philadelphia-negative classical myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) include polycythemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET), and primary myelofibrosis (PMF). The 2016 revision of the WHO Classification of Tumours of Haematopoietic and Lymphoid Tissues includes new criteria for the diagnosis of these disorders. Somatic mutations in the 3 driver genes, that is, JAK2, CALR, and MPL, represent major diagnostic criteria in combination with hematologic and morphological abnormalities. PV is characterized by erythrocytosis with suppressed endogenous erythropoietin production, bone marrow panmyelosis, and JAK2 mutation. Thrombocytosis, bone marrow megakaryocytic proliferation, and presence of JAK2, CALR, or MPL mutation are the main diagnostic criteria for ET. PMF is characterized by bone marrow megakaryocytic proliferation, reticulin and/or collagen fibrosis, and presence of JAK2, CALR, or MPL mutation. Prefibrotic myelofibrosis represents an early phase of myelofibrosis, and is characterized by granulocytic/megakaryocytic proliferation and lack of reticulin fibrosis in the bone marrow. The genomic landscape of MPNs is more complex than initially thought and involves several mutant genes beyond the 3 drivers. Comutated, myeloid tumor-suppressor genes contribute to phenotypic variability, phenotypic shifts, and progression to more aggressive disorders. Patients with myeloid neoplasms are at variable risk of vascular complications, including arterial or venous thrombosis and bleeding. Current prognostic models are mainly based on clinical and hematologic parameters, but innovative models that include genetic data are being developed for both clinical and trial settings. In perspective, molecular profiling of MPNs might also allow for accurate evaluation and monitoring of response to innovative drugs that target the mutant clone. PMID:28028026

  17. Diagnosis, risk stratification, and response evaluation in classical myeloproliferative neoplasms.

    PubMed

    Rumi, Elisa; Cazzola, Mario

    2017-02-09

    Philadelphia-negative classical myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) include polycythemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET), and primary myelofibrosis (PMF). The 2016 revision of the WHO Classification of Tumours of Haematopoietic and Lymphoid Tissues includes new criteria for the diagnosis of these disorders. Somatic mutations in the 3 driver genes, that is, JAK2, CALR, and MPL, represent major diagnostic criteria in combination with hematologic and morphological abnormalities. PV is characterized by erythrocytosis with suppressed endogenous erythropoietin production, bone marrow panmyelosis, and JAK2 mutation. Thrombocytosis, bone marrow megakaryocytic proliferation, and presence of JAK2, CALR, or MPL mutation are the main diagnostic criteria for ET. PMF is characterized by bone marrow megakaryocytic proliferation, reticulin and/or collagen fibrosis, and presence of JAK2, CALR, or MPL mutation. Prefibrotic myelofibrosis represents an early phase of myelofibrosis, and is characterized by granulocytic/megakaryocytic proliferation and lack of reticulin fibrosis in the bone marrow. The genomic landscape of MPNs is more complex than initially thought and involves several mutant genes beyond the 3 drivers. Comutated, myeloid tumor-suppressor genes contribute to phenotypic variability, phenotypic shifts, and progression to more aggressive disorders. Patients with myeloid neoplasms are at variable risk of vascular complications, including arterial or venous thrombosis and bleeding. Current prognostic models are mainly based on clinical and hematologic parameters, but innovative models that include genetic data are being developed for both clinical and trial settings. In perspective, molecular profiling of MPNs might also allow for accurate evaluation and monitoring of response to innovative drugs that target the mutant clone.

  18. Risk stratification for sudden cardiac death in North America - current perspectives.

    PubMed

    Buxton, Alfred E; Waks, Jonathan W; Shen, Changyu; Chen, Peng-Sheng

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) accounts for approximately 360,000 deaths annually in the United States, and is the cause of half of all cardiovascular deaths. In patients with severely depressed left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) have been shown to significantly reduce total mortality, but many factors beyond LVEF influence the relative benefit afforded by ICD implantation. In fact, among patients with prior myocardial infarction, approximately half of all SCDs occur in patients without severe LV dysfunction, and in analyses of large ICD trials, certain patient subgroups derive no benefit to ICD implantation despite having low LVEF, often due to competing non-arrhythmic mortality. Improved risk stratification tools to help select patients who are likely to derive the most benefit from ICD implantation are therefore needed. This manuscript will review studies evaluating use of ICDs in patients with mild LV systolic dysfunction and LVEF >35%, currently available ICD risk stratification models, and the rationale for designing a cohort study to prospectively validate use of an ICD risk stratification score.

  19. An electrophysiologist perspective on risk stratification in heart failure: can better understanding of the condition of the cardiac sympathetic nervous system help?

    PubMed

    Borgquist, Rasmus; Singh, Jagmeet P

    2015-06-01

    Heart failure is often complicated by arrhythmias that can adversely affect the quality of life and increase the risk for sudden cardiac death. Current risk stratification strategies for sudden cardiac death in the heart failure patient are not ideal, with much potential for further refinement. Overactivation of the sympathetic nervous system has been shown to be associated with worsening heart failure as well as arrhythmic events. Recent advances in our understanding of the autonomic nervous system and new methods for quantification of the pathologic activation of the sympathetic nerves have triggered increasing interest in this field. This viewpoint focuses on the need for and challenges of risk stratification of sudden death in the heart failure patient and discusses the potential value of measuring sympathetic nervous system activity to better stratify risk and to select patients with heart failure for implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy.

  20. Analytical and assay issues for use of cardiac troponin testing for risk stratification in primary care.

    PubMed

    Wu, Alan H B; Christenson, Robert H

    2013-08-01

    Cardiac troponin is the standard marker for diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction and risk stratification of patients who present to an emergency department with signs and symptoms of acute cardiac ischemia. Over the past few years, the analytical sensitivity of assays for cardiac troponin has improved significantly to the point where a detectable amount of troponin can be measured in essentially all healthy subjects. Recent studies have shown that use of a highly sensitive troponin assays may provide value to traditional markers of primary disease risk for patients, i.e., for those who have no history of heart disease. There are barriers to the adoption of cardiac troponin for screening high risk cohorts such as the elderly, diabetics and perhaps even the asymptomatic population. Strategies used for the assignment of cutoff concentrations in acute care, i.e., the 99 th percentile, may not be appropriate for primary care as changes over baseline levels may provide more accurate information of risk than cross-sectional results. A review of biological variation has shown that cardiac troponin as a biomarker has low index of individuality, indicating that reference values are of little utility. Whether or not cardiac troponin can be released in reversible injury is a debate that could have significance for detecting minor myocardial injury. A major hurdle for use of troponin in primary care is the lack of assay standardization and nomenclature for the different generations of troponin assays. Standardization requires knowledge of what is released after cardiac injury and what the various cardiac troponin assays are measuring. Currently it is not clear if the cardiac troponin release after ischemic injury is identical to that in circulation of healthy individuals. This may affect the design of future assays and standardization approaches. There is potential that a marker of myocardial injury such as troponin can add to the value of existing indicators and biomarkers

  1. Probabilistic Modeling Of Ocular Biomechanics In VIIP: Risk Stratification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feola, A.; Myers, J. G.; Raykin, J.; Nelson, E. S.; Mulugeta, L.; Samuels, B.; Ethier, C. R.

    2016-01-01

    the peak strains, we ranked and then normalized these coefficients, considering that normalized values 0.5 implied a substantial influence on the range of the peak strains in the optic nerve head (ONH). IOP and ICP were found to have a major influence on the peak strains in the ONH, as did optic nerve and LC stiffness. Interestingly, the stiffness of the sclera far from the scleral canal did not have a large influence on peak strains in ONH tissues; however, the collagen fiber stiffness in the peripapillary sclera and annular ring both influenced the peak strains within the ONH. We have created a physiologically relevant model that incorporated collagen fibers to study the effects of elevated ICP. Elevated ICP resulted in strains in the optic nerve that are not predicted to occur on earth: the upright or supine conditions. We found that IOP, ICP, lamina cribrosa stiffness and optic nerve stiffness had the highest association with these extreme strains in the ONH. These extreme strains may activate mechanosensitive cells that induce tissue remodeling and are a risk factor for the development of VIIP.

  2. Percentage of Positive Biopsy Cores: A Better Risk Stratification Model for Prostate Cancer?

    SciTech Connect

    Huang Jiayi; Vicini, Frank A.; Williams, Scott G.; Ye Hong; McGrath, Samuel; Ghilezan, Mihai; Krauss, Daniel; Martinez, Alvaro A.; Kestin, Larry L.

    2012-07-15

    Purpose: To assess the prognostic value of the percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPC) and perineural invasion in predicting the clinical outcomes after radiotherapy (RT) for prostate cancer and to explore the possibilities to improve on existing risk-stratification models. Methods and Materials: Between 1993 and 2004, 1,056 patients with clinical Stage T1c-T3N0M0 prostate cancer, who had four or more biopsy cores sampled and complete biopsy core data available, were treated with external beam RT, with or without a high-dose-rate brachytherapy boost at William Beaumont Hospital. The median follow-up was 7.6 years. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed with PPC, Gleason score, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen, T stage, PNI, radiation dose, androgen deprivation, age, prostate-specific antigen frequency, and follow-up duration. A new risk stratification (PPC classification) was empirically devised to incorporate PPC and replace the T stage. Results: On multivariate Cox regression analysis, the PPC was an independent predictor of distant metastasis, cause-specific survival, and overall survival (all p < .05). A PPC >50% was associated with significantly greater distant metastasis (hazard ratio, 4.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.86-8.61), and its independent predictive value remained significant with or without androgen deprivation therapy (all p < .05). In contrast, PNI and T stage were only predictive for locoregional recurrence. Combining the PPC ({<=}50% vs. >50%) with National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk stratification demonstrated added prognostic value of distant metastasis for the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio, 5.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-16.6) and high-risk (hazard ratio, 4.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.70-11.3) groups, regardless of the use of androgen deprivation and high-dose RT (all p < .05). The proposed PPC classification appears to provide improved stratification of the clinical outcomes relative to the National

  3. Use of mutant-specific ion channel characteristics for risk stratification of long QT syndrome patients.

    PubMed

    Jons, Christian; O-Uchi, Jin; Moss, Arthur J; Reumann, Matthias; Rice, John J; Goldenberg, Ilan; Zareba, Wojciech; Wilde, Arthur A M; Shimizu, Wataru; Kanters, Jorgen K; McNitt, Scott; Hofman, Nynke; Robinson, Jennifer L; Lopes, Coeli M B

    2011-03-30

    Inherited long QT syndrome (LQTS) is caused by mutations in ion channels that delay cardiac repolarization, increasing the risk of sudden death from ventricular arrhythmias. Currently, the risk of sudden death in individuals with LQTS is estimated from clinical parameters such as age, gender, and the QT interval, measured from the electrocardiogram. Even though a number of different mutations can cause LQTS, mutation-specific information is rarely used clinically. LQTS type 1 (LQT1), one of the most common forms of LQTS, is caused by mutations in the slow potassium current (I(Ks)) channel α subunit KCNQ1. We investigated whether mutation-specific changes in I(Ks) function can predict cardiac risk in LQT1. By correlating the clinical phenotype of 387 LQT1 patients with the cellular electrophysiological characteristics caused by an array of mutations in KCNQ1, we found that channels with a decreased rate of current activation are associated with increased risk of cardiac events (hazard ratio=2.02), independent of the clinical parameters usually used for risk stratification. In patients with moderate QT prolongation (a QT interval less than 500 ms), slower activation was an independent predictor for cardiac events (syncope, aborted cardiac arrest, and sudden death) (hazard ratio = 2.10), whereas the length of the QT interval itself was not. Our results indicate that genotype and biophysical phenotype analysis may be useful for risk stratification of LQT1 patients and suggest that slow channel activation is associated with an increased risk of cardiac events.

  4. Stratification of responders towards eculizumab using a structural epitope mapping strategy

    PubMed Central

    Volk, Anna-Luisa; Hu, Francis Jingxin; Berglund, Magnus M.; Nordling, Erik; Strömberg, Patrik; Uhlen, Mathias; Rockberg, Johan

    2016-01-01

    The complement component 5 (C5)-binding antibody eculizumab is used to treat patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) and atypical haemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS). As recently reported there is a need for a precise classification of eculizumab responsive patients to allow for a safe and cost-effective treatment. To allow for such stratification, knowledge of the precise binding site of the drug on its target is crucial. Using a structural epitope mapping strategy based on bacterial surface display, flow cytometric sorting and validation via haemolytic activity testing, we identified six residues essential for binding of eculizumab to C5. This epitope co-localizes with the contact area recently identified by crystallography and includes positions in C5 mutated in non-responders. The identified epitope also includes residue W917, which is unique for human C5 and explains the observed lack of cross-reactivity for eculizumab with other primates. We could demonstrate that Ornithodorus moubata complement inhibitor (OmCI), in contrast to eculizumab, maintained anti-haemolytic function for mutations in any of the six epitope residues, thus representing a possible alternative treatment for patients non-responsive to eculizumab. The method for stratification of patients described here allows for precision medicine and should be applicable to several other diseases and therapeutics. PMID:27509843

  5. A new gender-specific model for skin autofluorescence risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Ahmad, Muhammad S; Damanhouri, Zoheir A; Kimhofer, Torben; Mosli, Hala H; Holmes, Elaine

    2015-05-14

    Advanced glycation endproducts (AGEs) are believed to play a significant role in the pathophysiology of a variety of diseases including diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Non-invasive skin autofluorescence (SAF) measurement serves as a proxy for tissue accumulation of AGEs. We assessed reference SAF and skin reflectance (SR) values in a Saudi population (n = 1,999) and evaluated the existing risk stratification scale. The mean SAF of the study cohort was 2.06 (SD = 0.57) arbitrary units (AU), which is considerably higher than the values reported for other populations. We show a previously unreported and significant difference in SAF values between men and women, with median (range) values of 1.77 AU (0.79-4.84 AU) and 2.20 AU (0.75-4.59 AU) respectively (p-value « 0.01). Age, presence of diabetes and BMI were the most influential variables in determining SAF values in men, whilst in female participants, SR was also highly correlated with SAF. Diabetes, hypertension and obesity all showed strong association with SAF, particularly when gender differences were taken into account. We propose an adjusted, gender-specific disease risk stratification scheme for Middle Eastern populations. SAF is a potentially valuable clinical screening tool for cardiovascular risk assessment but risk scores should take gender and ethnicity into consideration for accurate diagnosis.

  6. Stratification of the Risk of Sudden Death in Nonischemic Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Pimentel, Maurício; Zimerman, Leandro Ioschpe; Rohde, Luis Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    Despite significant therapeutic advancements, heart failure remains a highly prevalent clinical condition associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In 30%-40% patients, the etiology of heart failure is nonischemic. The implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is capable of preventing sudden death and decreasing total mortality in patients with nonischemic heart failure. However, a significant number of patients receiving ICD do not receive any kind of therapy during follow-up. Moreover, considering the situation in Brazil and several other countries, ICD cannot be implanted in all patients with nonischemic heart failure. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify patients at an increased risk of sudden death because these would benefit more than patients at a lower risk, despite the presence of heart failure in both risk groups. In this study, the authors review the primary available methods for the stratification of the risk of sudden death in patients with nonischemic heart failure. PMID:25352509

  7. Role of echocardiography in diagnosis and risk stratification in heart failure with left ventricular systolic dysfunction

    PubMed Central

    Ciampi, Quirino; Villari, Bruno

    2007-01-01

    Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome that can result from any structural or functional cardiac disorder that impairs the ability of the ventricle to fill with or eject blood. Echocardiography represents the "gold standard" in the assessment of LV systolic dysfunction and in the recognition of systolic heart failure, since dilatation of the LV results in alteration of intracardiac geometry and hemodynamics leading to increased morbidity and mortality. The functional mitral regurgitation is a consequence of adverse LV remodelling that occurs with a structurally normal valve and it is a marker of adverse prognosis. Diastolic dysfunction plays a major role in signs and symptoms of HF and in the risk stratification, and provides prognostic information independently in HF patients and impaired systolic function. Ultrasound lung comets are a simple echographic sign of extravascular lung water, more frequently associated with left ventricular diastolic and/or systolic dysfunction, which can integrate the clinical and pathophysiological information provided by conventional echocardiography and provide a useful information for prognostic stratification of HF patients. Contractile reserve is defined as the difference between values of an index of left ventricular contractility during peak stress and its baseline values and the presence of myocardial viability predicts a favorable outcome. A non-invasive echocardiographic method for the evaluation of force-frequency relationship has been proposed to assess the changes in contractility during stress echo. In conclusion, in HF patients, the evaluation of systolic, diastolic function and myocardial contractile reserve plays a fundamental role in the risk stratification. The highest risk is present in HF patients with a heart that is weak, big, noisy, stiff and wet. PMID:17910744

  8. Role of echocardiography in diagnosis and risk stratification in heart failure with left ventricular systolic dysfunction.

    PubMed

    Ciampi, Quirino; Villari, Bruno

    2007-10-02

    Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome that can result from any structural or functional cardiac disorder that impairs the ability of the ventricle to fill with or eject blood. Echocardiography represents the "gold standard" in the assessment of LV systolic dysfunction and in the recognition of systolic heart failure, since dilatation of the LV results in alteration of intracardiac geometry and hemodynamics leading to increased morbidity and mortality. The functional mitral regurgitation is a consequence of adverse LV remodelling that occurs with a structurally normal valve and it is a marker of adverse prognosis. Diastolic dysfunction plays a major role in signs and symptoms of HF and in the risk stratification, and provides prognostic information independently in HF patients and impaired systolic function. Ultrasound lung comets are a simple echographic sign of extravascular lung water, more frequently associated with left ventricular diastolic and/or systolic dysfunction, which can integrate the clinical and pathophysiological information provided by conventional echocardiography and provide a useful information for prognostic stratification of HF patients. Contractile reserve is defined as the difference between values of an index of left ventricular contractility during peak stress and its baseline values and the presence of myocardial viability predicts a favorable outcome. A non-invasive echocardiographic method for the evaluation of force-frequency relationship has been proposed to assess the changes in contractility during stress echo. In conclusion, in HF patients, the evaluation of systolic, diastolic function and myocardial contractile reserve plays a fundamental role in the risk stratification. The highest risk is present in HF patients with a heart that is weak, big, noisy, stiff and wet.

  9. Prognostic value of cardiac biomarkers in the risk stratification of syncope: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Thiruganasambandamoorthy, Venkatesh; Ramaekers, Rosa; Rahman, Mohammed Omair; Stiell, Ian Gilmour; Sikora, Lindsey; Kelly, Sarah-Louise; Christ, Michael; Claret, Pierre-Geraud; Reed, Matthew James

    2015-12-01

    The role of cardiac biomarkers in risk stratification of syncope is unclear. We undertook a systematic review to assess their predictive value for short-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We conducted a systematic review using MEDLINE, EMBASE, DARE and Cochrane databases from inception to July 2014. We included studies involving adult syncope patients that evaluated cardiac biomarker levels for risk stratification during acute management and excluded case reports, reviews and studies involving children. Primary outcome (MACE) included death, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, myocardial infarction (MI), structural heart disease, pulmonary embolism, significant hemorrhage or cardiac procedural interventions. Secondary outcome analysis assessed for prediction of MI, cardiac syncope and death. Two reviewers extracted patient-level data based on the cut-off reported. Pooled sensitivities and specificities were calculated using patient-level data. A total of 1862 articles were identified, and 11 studies with 4246 patients were included. Studies evaluated 3 biomarkers: contemporary troponin (2693 patients), natriuretic peptides (1353 patients) and high-sensitive troponin (819 patients). The pooled sensitivities and specificities for MACE were: contemporary troponin 0.29 (95 % CI 0.24, 0.34) and 0.88 (95 % CI 0.86, 0.89); natriuretic peptides 0.77 (95 % CI 0.69, 0.85) and 0.73 (95 % CI 0.70, 0.76); high-sensitive troponin 0.74 (95 % CI 0.65, 0.83) and 0.65 (95 % CI 0.62, 0.69), respectively. Natriuretic peptides and high-sensitive troponin showed good diagnostic characteristics for both primary and secondary outcomes. Natriuretic peptides and high-sensitive troponin might be useful in risk stratification.

  10. Clinical Usefulness of Novel Serum and Imaging Biomarkers in Risk Stratification of Patients with Stable Angina

    PubMed Central

    Ikonomidis, Ignatios; Tsantes, Argirios

    2014-01-01

    Inflammatory mediators appear to be the most intriguing yet confusing subject, regarding the management of patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). The current inflammatory concept of atherosclerotic coronary artery disease (CAD) led many investigators to concentrate on systemic markers of inflammation, as well as imaging techniques, which may be helpful in risk stratification and prognosis assessment for cardiovascular events. In this review, we try to depict many of the recently studied markers regarding stable angina (SA), their clinical usefulness, and possible future applications in the field. PMID:25045198

  11. Risk stratification for kidney sparing procedure in upper tract urothelial carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Khene, Zine-Eddine; Mathieu, Romain; Kammerer-Jacquet, Solène-Florence; Seisen, Thomas; Roupret, Morgan; Shariat, Shahrokh F.; Peyronnet, Benoit

    2016-01-01

    Risk stratification for kidney sparing procedures (KSP) to treat upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is a major issue. A non-systematic Medline/PubMed literature search was performed using the terms “upper tract urothelial carcinoma” with different combinations of keywords to review the current knowledge on this topic. Original articles, reviews and editorials in English language were selected based on their clinical relevance. Available techniques for KSP include segmental ureterectomy and endoscopic resection through a percutaneous or flexible ureteroscopic access. These approaches were traditionally restricted to patients with imperative indications. Current recommendations suggest that selected patients with normal contralateral kidney should also be candidates for such treatments. Modern imaging and endoscopy have improved to accurately stage and grade the tumor while various prognostic clinical factors and biomarkers have been proposed to identify tumor with aggressive features and worse outcomes. Several predictive models using different combinations of such baseline characteristics may help clinicians in clinical decision making. However, risk-adapted based approach that has been proposed in recent guidelines to identify patients who are more likely to benefit from KSP only relies on few clinical and pathological factors. Despite growing understanding of the disease, treatment of UTUC remains challenging. Further efforts and collaborative multicenter studies are mandatory to improve risk stratification to decide and promote optimal KSP in UTUC. These efforts should focus on the integration of promising biomarkers and predictive tools in clinical decision making. PMID:27785428

  12. Risk Stratification for Athletes and Adventurers in High-Altitude Environments: Recommendations for Preparticipation Evaluation.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Aaron D; McIntosh, Scott E; Nyberg, Andy; Powell, Amy P; Schoene, Robert B; Hackett, Peter

    2015-12-01

    High-altitude athletes and adventurers face a number of environmental and medical risks. Clinicians often advise participants or guiding agencies before or during these experiences. Preparticipation evaluation (PPE) has the potential to reduce risk of high-altitude illnesses in athletes and adventurers. Specific conditions susceptible to high-altitude exacerbation also important to evaluate include cardiovascular and lung diseases. Recommendations by which to counsel individuals before participation in altitude sports and adventures are few and of limited focus. We reviewed the literature, collected expert opinion, and augmented principles of a traditional sport PPE to accommodate the high-altitude wilderness athlete/adventurer. We present our findings with specific recommendations on risk stratification during a PPE for the high-altitude athlete/adventurer.

  13. Value of planar 201Tl imaging in risk stratification of patients recovering from acute myocardial infarction

    SciTech Connect

    Gibson, R.S.; Watson, D.D. )

    1991-09-01

    Although exercise ECG testing has been shown to have important prognostic value after acute myocardial infarction, exercise 201Tl scintigraphy offers several potential advantages, including: (1) increased sensitivity for detecting residual myocardial ischemia; (2) the ability to localize ischemia to a specific area or areas subtended by a specific coronary artery; (3) the ability to identify exercise-induced left ventricular dysfunction, which is manifested by increased lung uptake or transient left ventricular dilation; and (4) more reliable risk stratification of individual patients. The more optimal prognostic efficiency of 201Tl scintigraphy partially results from the fact that the error rate in falsely classifying patients as low risk is significantly smaller with 201Tl scintigraphy than with stress ECG. Because of these substantial advantages, there seems to be adequate rationale for recommending exercise perfusion imaging rather than exercise ECG alone as the preferred method for evaluating mortality and morbidity risks after acute myocardial infarction.

  14. Tools for risk stratification of sudden cardiac death: A review of the literature in different patient populations

    PubMed Central

    Ragupathi, Loheetha; Pavri, Behzad B.

    2014-01-01

    While various modalities to determine risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) have been reported in clinical studies, currently reduced left ventricular ejection fraction remains the cornerstone of SCD risk stratification. However, the absolute burden of SCD is greatest amongst populations without known cardiac disease. In this review, we summarize the evidence behind current guidelines for implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) use for the prevention of SCD in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD). We also evaluate the evidence for risk stratification tools beyond clinical guidelines in the general population, patients with IHD, and patients with other known or suspected medical conditions. PMID:24568833

  15. Hepatic Veno-Occlusive Disease after Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation: Risk Factors and Stratification, Prophylaxis, and Treatment.

    PubMed

    Dalle, Jean-Hugues; Giralt, Sergio A

    2016-03-01

    Hepatic veno-occlusive disease (VOD), also known as sinusoidal obstruction syndrome (SOS), can develop in a subset of patients, primarily after myeloablative hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, but it also may occur after reduced-intensity conditioning. Severe VOD/SOS, typically characterized by multiorgan failure, has been associated with a mortality rate greater than 80%. Therefore, an accurate and prompt diagnosis of VOD/SOS is essential for early initiation of appropriate therapy to improve clinical outcomes. Moreover, some studies have support the use of prophylaxis for patients who are at high risk of developing VOD/SOS. This review summarizes risk factors associated with development of VOD/SOS, including pretransplantation patient characteristics and factors related to stem cell transplantation, that can facilitate patient stratification according to risk. The incidence of VOD/SOS, clinical features, and diagnostic criteria are reviewed. Data on emerging treatment strategies for patients with VOD/SOS are discussed in the context of recent treatment guidelines. Additionally, options for prophylaxis in individuals who are at increased risk are presented. Although historically only those patients with moderate to severe VOD/SOS have been treated, early therapy and prophylaxis may be appropriate for many patients and may have the potential to improve patients' outcomes and survival, including for those with nonsevere disease.

  16. Drug-induced liver injury: Towards early prediction and risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Raschi, Emanuel; De Ponti, Fabrizio

    2017-01-01

    Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a hot topic for clinicians, academia, drug companies and regulators, as shown by the steadily increasing number of publications and agents listed as causing liver damage (http://livertox.nih.gov/). As it was the case in the past decade with drug-induced QT prolongation/arrhythmia, there is an urgent unmet clinical need to develop tools for risk assessment and stratification in clinical practice and, in parallel, to improve prediction of pre-clinical models to support regulatory steps and facilitate early detection of liver-specific adverse drug events. Although drug discontinuation and therapy reconciliation still remain the mainstay in patient management to minimize occurrence of DILI, especially acute liver failure events, different multidisciplinary attempts have been proposed in 2016 to predict and assess drug-related risk in individual patients; these promising, albeit preliminary, results strongly support the need to pursue this innovative pathway. PMID:28105256

  17. Risk Stratification for Sudden Cardiac Death In Patients With Non-ischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy

    PubMed Central

    Shekha, Karthik; Ghosh, Joydeep; Thekkoott, Deepak; Greenberg, Yisachar

    2005-01-01

    Non ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM) is a disorder of myocardium. It has varying etiologies. Albeit the varying etiologies of this heart muscle disorder, it presents with symptoms of heart failure, and rarely as sudden cardiac death (SCD). Manifestations of this disorder are in many ways similar to its counterpart, ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (IDCM). A proportion of patients with NIDCM carries a grave prognosis and is prone to sudden cardiac death from sustained ventricular arrhythmias. Identification of this subgroup of patients who carry the risk of sudden cardiac death despite adequate medical management is a challenge .Yet another method is a blanket treatment of patients with this disorder with anti arrhythmic medications or anti tachyarrhythmia devices like implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD). However this modality of treatment could be a costly exercise even for affluent economies. In this review we try to analyze the existing data of risk stratification of NIDCM and its clinical implications in practice. PMID:16943952

  18. SIOP‐PODC adapted risk stratification and treatment guidelines: Recommendations for neuroblastoma in low‐ and middle‐income settings

    PubMed Central

    Howard, Scott C.; Chantada, Guillermo; Israels, Trijn; Khattab, Mohammed; Alcasabas, Patricia; Lam, Catherine G.; Faulkner, Lawrence; Park, Julie R.; London, Wendy B.; Matthay, Katherine K.

    2015-01-01

    Neuroblastoma is the most common extracranial solid tumor in childhood in high‐income countries (HIC), where consistent treatment approaches based on clinical and tumor biological risk stratification have steadily improved outcomes. However, in low‐ and middle‐ income countries (LMIC), suboptimal diagnosis, risk stratification, and treatment may occur due to limited resources and unavailable infrastructure. The clinical practice guidelines outlined in this manuscript are based on current published evidence and expert opinions. Standard risk stratification and treatment explicitly adapted to graduated resource settings can improve outcomes for children with neuroblastoma by reducing preventable toxic death and relapse. Pediatr Blood Cancer 2015;62:1305–1316. © 2015 The Authors. Pediatric Blood & Cancer, published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:25810263

  19. Carotid ultrasound in the cardiovascular risk stratification of patients with rheumatoid arthritis: when and for whom?

    PubMed

    González-Gay, Miguel A; González-Juanatey, Carlos; Llorca, Javier

    2012-06-01

    Adequate stratification of cardiovascular (CV) risk is one of the major points of interest in the management of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A task force of the European League Against Rheumatism has proposed to adapt CV risk management calculated in RA patients according to the systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE) function by application of a multiplier factor of 1.5 in those patients with two of the following three criteria: disease duration >10 years, rheumatoid factor (RF) or anticyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibody positivity, and presence of severe extra-articular manifestations. However, a major concern when using the modified SCORE is to know whether the effect of chronic inflammation on the CV risk of RA patients can be fully determined using this tool. As increased carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and carotid plaques have been proved to predict the development of CV events in RA, the authors suggest performing carotid ultrasound when SCORE does not yield results indicating high CV risk in RA patients with extra-articular manifestations, RF or anti-CCP positivity as well as in patients with 10 years disease duration or longer. The presence of abnormal carotid IMT (>0.90 mm) or carotid plaques would lead to these patients being considered as having high CV risk regardless of the results derived from the modified SCORE.

  20. Risk stratification in motor area-related glioma surgery based on navigated transcranial magnetic stimulation data.

    PubMed

    Rosenstock, Tizian; Grittner, Ulrike; Acker, Güliz; Schwarzer, Vera; Kulchytska, Nataliia; Vajkoczy, Peter; Picht, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    OBJECTIVE Navigated transcranial magnetic stimulation (nTMS) is a noninvasive method for preoperatively localizing functional areas in patients with tumors in presumed motor eloquent areas. The aim of this study was to establish an nTMS-based risk stratification model by examining whether the results of nTMS mapping and its neurophysiological data predict postoperative motor outcome in glioma surgery. METHODS Included in this study were prospectively collected data for 113 patients undergoing bihemispheric nTMS examination prior to surgery for gliomas in presumed motor eloquent locations. Multiple ordinal logistic regression analysis was performed to test for any association between preoperative nTMS-related variables and postoperative motor outcome. RESULTS A new motor deficit or deterioration due to a preexisting deficit was observed in 20% of cases after 7 days and in 22% after 3 months. In terms of tumor location, no new permanent deficit was observed when the distance between tumor and corticospinal tract was greater than 8 mm and the precentral gyrus was not infiltrated (p = 0.014). New postoperative deficits on Day 7 were associated with a pathological excitability of the motor cortices (interhemispheric resting motor threshold [RMT] ratio < 90% or > 110%, p = 0.031). Interestingly, motor function never improved when the RMT was significantly higher in the tumorous hemisphere than in the healthy hemisphere (RMT ratio > 110%). CONCLUSIONS The proposed risk stratification model, based on objective functional-anatomical and neurophysiological measures, enables one to counsel patients about the risk of functional deterioration or the potential for recovery.

  1. Pulmonary embolism: the diagnosis, risk-stratification, treatment and disposition of emergency department patients

    PubMed Central

    Corrigan, Daniel; Prucnal, Christiana; Kabrhel, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    The diagnosis or exclusion of pulmonary embolism (PE) remains challenging for emergency physicians. Symptoms can be vague or non-existent, and the clinical presentation shares features with many other common diagnoses. Diagnostic testing is complicated, as biomarkers, like the D-dimer, are frequently false positive, and imaging, like computed tomography pulmonary angiography, carries risks of radiation and contrast dye exposure. It is therefore incumbent on emergency physicians to be both vigilant and thoughtful about this diagnosis. In recent years, several advances in treatment have also emerged. Novel, direct-acting oral anticoagulants make the outpatient treatment of low risk PE easier than before. However, the spectrum of PE severity varies widely, so emergency physicians must be able to risk-stratify patients to ensure the appropriate disposition. Finally, PE response teams have been developed to facilitate rapid access to advanced therapies (e.g., catheter directed thrombolysis) for patients with high-risk PE. This review will discuss the clinical challenges of PE diagnosis, risk stratification and treatment that emergency physicians face every day. PMID:27752629

  2. Risk stratification in cardiovascular disease primary prevention - scoring systems, novel markers, and imaging techniques.

    PubMed

    Zannad, Faiez; De Backer, Guy; Graham, Ian; Lorenz, Matthias; Mancia, Giuseppe; Morrow, David A; Reiner, Zeljko; Koenig, Wolfgang; Dallongeville, Jean; Macfadyen, Robert J; Ruilope, Luis M; Wilhelmsen, Lars

    2012-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to review and discuss current methods of risk stratification for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, emerging biomarkers, and imaging techniques, and their relative merits and limitations. This report is based on discussions that took place among experts in the area during a special CardioVascular Clinical Trialists workshop organized by the European Society of Cardiology Working Group on Cardiovascular Pharmacology and Drug Therapy in September 2009. Classical risk factors such as blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels remain the cornerstone of risk estimation in primary prevention but their use as a guide to management is limited by several factors: (i) thresholds for drug treatment vary with the available evidence for cost-effectiveness and benefit-to-risk ratios; (ii) assessment may be imprecise; (iii) residual risk may remain, even with effective control of dyslipidemia and hypertension. Novel measures include C-reactive protein, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) , genetic markers, and markers of subclinical organ damage, for which there are varying levels of evidence. High-resolution ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging to assess carotid atherosclerotic lesions have potential but require further validation, standardization, and proof of clinical usefulness in the general population. In conclusion, classical risk scoring systems are available and inexpensive but have a number of limitations. Novel risk markers and imaging techniques may have a place in drug development and clinical trial design. However, their additional value above and beyond classical risk factors has yet to be determined for risk-guided therapy in CVD prevention.

  3. Development and Validation of a Stratification Tool for Predicting Risk of Deep Sternal Wound Infection after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting at a Brazilian Hospital

    PubMed Central

    Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros Oliveira; Ferraz, Paulo Ernando; Soares, Artur Freire; Miranda, Rodrigo Gusmão Albuquerque; Araújo, Mayara Lopes; Silva, Frederico Vasconcelos; Lima, Ricardo de Carvalho

    2017-01-01

    Objective Deep sternal wound infection following coronary artery bypass grafting is a serious complication associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite the substantial impact of deep sternal wound infection, there is a lack of specific risk stratification tools to predict this complication after coronary artery bypass grafting. This study was undertaken to develop a specific prognostic scoring system for the development of deep sternal wound infection that could risk-stratify patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and be applied right after the surgical procedure. Methods Between March 2007 and August 2016, continuous, prospective surveillance data on deep sternal wound infection and a set of 27 variables of 1500 patients were collected. Using binary logistic regression analysis, we identified independent predictors of deep sternal wound infection. Initially we developed a predictive model in a subset of 500 patients. Dataset was expanded to other 1000 consecutive cases and a final model and risk score were derived. Calibration of the scores was performed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results The model had area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.729 (0.821 for preliminary dataset). Baseline risk score incorporated independent predictors of deep sternal wound infection: obesity (P=0.046; OR 2.58; 95% CI 1.11-6.68), diabetes (P=0.046; OR 2.61; 95% CI 1.12-6.63), smoking (P=0.008; OR 2.10; 95% CI 1.12-4.67), pedicled internal thoracic artery (P=0.012; OR 5.11; 95% CI 1.42-18.40), and on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (P=0.042; OR 2.20; 95% CI 1.13-5.81). A risk stratification system was, then, developed. Conclusion This tool effectively predicts deep sternal wound infection risk at our center and may help with risk stratification in relation to public reporting and targeted prevention strategies in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.

  4. Genetic Stratification to Identify Risk Groups for Alzheimer’s Disease

    PubMed Central

    Marioni, Riccardo E.; Campbell, Archie; Hagenaars, Saskia P.; Nagy, Reka; Amador, Carmen; Hayward, Caroline; Porteous, David J.; Visscher, Peter M.; Deary, Ian J.

    2017-01-01

    Stratification by genetic risk factors for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) may help identify groups with the greatest disease risk. Biological changes that cause late-onset AD are likely to occur years, if not decades prior to diagnosis. Here, we select a subset of the Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study cohort in a likely preclinical age-range of 60–70 years (subset n = 3,495 with cognitive and genetic data). We test for cognitive differences by polygenic risk scores for AD. The polygenic scores are constructed using all available SNPs, excluding those within a 500 kb distance of the APOE locus. Additive and multiplicative effects of APOE status on these associations are investigated. Small memory decrements were observed in those with high polygenic risk scores for AD (standardized beta –0.04, p = 0.020). These associations were independent of APOE status. There was no difference in AD polygenic scores across APOE haplotypes (p = 0.72). Individuals with high compared to low polygenic risk scores for AD (top and bottom 5% of the distribution) show cognitive decrements, albeit much smaller than for APOE ɛ4ɛ4 compared to ɛ3ɛ3 individuals (2.3 versus 3.5 fewer points on the processing speed test, and 1.8 versus 2.8 fewer points on the memory test). Polygenic risk scores for AD may help identify older individuals at greatest risk of cognitive decline and preclinical AD. PMID:28222519

  5. Noninvasive risk stratification after myocardial infarction: Rationale, current evidence and the need for definitive trials

    PubMed Central

    Exner, Derek V

    2009-01-01

    Despite advances in therapies for myocardial infarction (MI), death attributed to a cardiac arrest from ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF) remains an important problem. The implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is effective in preventing death from VT/VF, but reliably identifying which post-MI patients would benefit from an ICD remains a major challenge. Beyond the initial post-MI period, the presence of significant left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, alone or in combination with the induction of sustained VT/VF during invasive testing, is the only proven means of selecting patients for a prophylactic ICD. However, these approaches identify only a fraction of those at risk. Furthermore, most patients with significant LV dysfunction after MI have a low, near-term risk of VT/VF. Noninvasive risk stratification tools have been developed to better identify patients likely to benefit from an ICD. To date, none of these tools has been proven useful in this regard. The factors leading to a cardiac arrest are complex, and a single test is unlikely to reliably predict risk. Noninvasive assessment of cardiac structure, conduction and repolarization along with autonomic modulation appear to be useful in predicting the risk of a cardiac arrest after MI, particularly when assessed in combination. However, randomized trials assessing the efficacy of ICD therapy in patients identified as being at risk are required. Until such data are available, significant LV dysfunction alone and in combination with the induction of VT/VF during invasive testing in the nonacute post-MI period remain the only proven methods to guide prophylactic ICD therapy. PMID:19521570

  6. Psychosis Prediction: Stratification of Risk Estimation With Information-Processing and Premorbid Functioning Variables

    PubMed Central

    Nieman, Dorien H.; Ruhrmann, Stephan; Dragt, Sara; Soen, Francesca; van Tricht, Mirjam J.; Koelman, Johannes H. T .M.; Bour, Lo J; Velthorst, Eva; Becker, Hiske E.; Weiser, Mark; Linszen, Don H.; de Haan, Lieuwe

    2014-01-01

    Background: The period preceding the first psychotic episode is regarded as a promising period for intervention. We aimed to develop an optimized prediction model of a first psychosis, considering different sources of information. The outcome of this model may be used for individualized risk estimation. Methods: Sixty-one subjects clinically at high risk (CHR), participating in the Dutch Prediction of Psychosis Study, were assessed at baseline with instruments yielding data on neuropsychology, symptomatology, environmental factors, premorbid adjustment, and neurophysiology. The follow-up period was 36 months. Results: At 36 months, 18 participants (29.5%) had made a transition to psychosis. Premorbid adjustment (P = .001, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.13, 95% CI = 1.39/3.28) and parietal P300 amplitude (P = .004, HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.08/1.45) remained as predictors in the Cox proportional hazard model. The resulting prognostic score (PS) showed a sensitivity of 88.9% and a specificity of 82.5%. The area under the curve of the PS was 0.91 (95% CI = 0.83–0.98, cross-validation: 0.86), indicating an outstanding ability of the model to discriminate between transition and nontransition. The PS was further stratified into 3 risk classes establishing a prognostic index. In the class with the worst social-personal adjustment and lowest P300 amplitudes, 74% of the subjects made a transition to psychosis. Furthermore, transition emerged on average more than 17 months earlier than in the lowest risk class. Conclusions: Our results suggest that predicting a first psychotic episode in CHR subjects could be improved with a model including premorbid adjustment and information-processing variables in a multistep algorithm combining risk detection and stratification. PMID:24142369

  7. Use of two gene panels for prostate cancer diagnosis and patient risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Kefeng; Guo, Jinan; Zhang, Xuhui; Feng, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Heqiu; Cheng, Zhiqiang; Johnson, Heather; Persson, Jenny L; Chen, Lingwu

    2016-08-01

    Currently, no ideal prostate cancer (PCa) diagnostic or prognostic test is available due to the lack of biomarkers with high sensitivity and specificity. There is an unmet medical need to develop combinations of multiple biomarkers which may have higher accuracy in detection of PCa and stratification of aggressive and indolent cancer patients. The aim of this study was to test two biomarker gene panels in distinguishing PCa from benign prostate and high-risk, aggressive PCa from low-risk, indolent PCa, respectively. We identified a five-gene panel that can be used to distinguish PCa from benign prostate. The messenger RNA (mRNA) expression signature of the five genes was determined in 144 PCa and benign prostate specimens from prostatectomy. We showed that the five-gene panel distinguished PCa from benign prostate with sensitivity of 96.59 %, specificity of 92.86 %, and area under the curve (AUC) of 0.992 (p < 0.0001). The five-gene panel was further validated in a 137 specimen cohort and showed sensitivity of 84.62 %, specificity of 91.84 %, and AUC of 0.942 (p < 0.0001). To define subtypes of PCa for treatment guidance, we examined mRNA expression signature of an eight-gene panel in 87 PCa specimens from prostatectomy. The signature of the eight-gene panel was able to distinguish aggressive PCa (Gleason score >6) from indolent PCa (Gleason score ≤6) with sensitivity of 90.28 %, specificity of 80.00 %, and AUC of 0.967 (p < 0.0001). This panel was further validated in a 158 specimen cohort and showed significant difference between aggressive PCa and indolent PCa with sensitivity of 92.57 %, specificity of 70.00 %, and AUC of 0.962 (p < 0.0001). Our findings in assessing multiple biomarkers in combination may provide new tools to detect PCa and distinguish aggressive and indolent PCa for precision and personalized treatment. The two biomarker panels may be used in clinical settings for accurate PCa diagnosis and patient risk stratification

  8. Emergency department management of syncope: need for standardization and improved risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Thiruganasambandamoorthy, Venkatesh; Taljaard, Monica; Stiell, Ian G; Sivilotti, Marco L A; Murray, Heather; Vaidyanathan, Aparna; Rowe, Brian H; Calder, Lisa A; Lang, Eddy; McRae, Andrew; Sheldon, Robert; Wells, George A

    2015-08-01

    Variations in emergency department (ED) syncope management have not been well studied. The goals of this study were to assess variations in management, and emergency physicians' risk perception and disposition decision making. We conducted a prospective study of adults with syncope in six EDs in four cities over 32 months. We collected patient characteristics, ED management, disposition, physicians' prediction probabilities at index presentation and followed patients for 30 days for serious outcomes: death, myocardial infarction (MI), arrhythmia, structural heart disease, pulmonary embolism, significant hemorrhage, or procedural interventions. We used descriptive statistics, ROC curves, and regression analyses. We enrolled 3662 patients: mean age 54.3 years, and 12.9 % were hospitalized. Follow-up data were available for 3365 patients (91.9 %) and 345 patients (10.3 %) suffered serious outcomes: 120 (3.6 %) after ED disposition including 48 patients outside the hospital. After accounting for differences in patient case mix, the rates of ED investigations and disposition were significantly different (p < 0.0001) across the four study cities; as were the rates of 30-day serious outcomes (p < 0.0001) and serious outcomes after ED disposition (p = 0.0227). There was poor agreement between physician risk perception and both observed event rates and referral patterns (p < 0.0001). Only 76.7 % (95 % CI 68.1-83.6) of patients with serious outcomes were appropriately referred. There are large and unexplained differences in ED syncope management. Moreover, there is poor agreement between physician risk perception, disposition decision making, and serious outcomes after ED disposition. A valid risk-stratification tool might help standardize ED management and improve disposition decision making.

  9. What is the utility of preoperative frailty assessment for risk stratification in cardiac surgery?

    PubMed

    Bagnall, Nigel Mark; Faiz, Omar; Darzi, Ara; Athanasiou, Thanos

    2013-08-01

    A best evidence topic in cardiac surgery was written according to a structured protocol. The question addressed was whether frailty scoring can be used either separately or combined with conventional risk scores to predict survival and complications. Five hundred and thirty-five papers were found using the reported search, of which nine cohort studies represented the best evidence to answer the clinical question. The authors, journal, date and country of publication, patient group studied, study type, relevant outcomes and results of these papers are tabulated. There is a paucity of evidence, as advanced age is a criterion for exclusion in most randomized controlled trials. Conventional models of risk following cardiac surgery are not calibrated to accurately predict the outcomes in the elderly and do not currently include frailty parameters. There is no universally accepted definition for frailty, but it is described as a physiological decline in multiple organ systems, decreasing a patient's capacity to withstand the stresses of surgery and disease. Frailty is manifest clinically as deficits in functional capacity, such as slow ambulation and impairments in the activities of daily living (ADL). Analysis of predictive models using area under receiver operating curves (AUC) suggested only a modest benefit by adding gait speed to a Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS score)-Predicted Risk of Mortality or Major Morbidity (PROM) risk score (AUC 0.04 mean difference). However, a specialist frailty assessment tool named FORECAST was found to be superior at predicting adverse outcomes at 1 year compared with either EuroSCORE or STS score (AUC 0.09 mean difference). However, risk models incorporating frailty parameters require further validation and have not been widely adopted. Routine collection of objective frailty measures such as 5-metre walk time and ADL assessment will help to provide data to develop new risk-assessment models to facilitate risk stratification and

  10. Chronic heart failure in the elderly: value of cardiopulmonary exercise testing in risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Davies, L; Francis, D; Piepoli, M; Scott, A; Ponikowski, P; Coats, A

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To assess the value of cardiopulmonary exercise testing in predicting prognosis in a cohort of elderly patients with chronic heart failure (CHF).
DESIGN—A retrospective cohort study of all patients with CHF over the age of 70 years assessed between January 1992 and May 1997.
SETTING—Tertiary centre.
PATIENTS—50 patients (mean (SD) age 75.9 (4.5) years, 8 women) with CHF New York Heart Association (NYHA) class I (3 patients), II (25 patients), III (20 patients), and IV (2 patients). Follow up was complete for two years in all patients.
RESULTS—The patients underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing (peak oxygen consumption 15.2 (4.5) ml/kg/min, minute ventilation/carbon dioxide production (VE/VCO2) slope 38.7 (11.8)); radionucleide ventriculography (left ventricular ejection fraction 32.8 (14.3)%); serum sodium measurement (139 (2.8) mmol/l); and echocardiography (left ventricular end diastolic dimension 6.1 (1.1) cm, left ventricular end systolic dimension 4.7 (1.5) cm). At the end of follow up in May 1999, 26 patients had died. The median follow up of the survivors was 47.7 months (interquartile range 31.5-53.5 months). On univariate analysis VE/VCO2 slope (p < 0.0001), NYHA class (p < 0.001), peak oxygen uptake (VO2) (p < 0.01), left ventricular end systolic dimension (p < 0.05), and serum sodium concentration (p < 0.05) had significant predictive power. Stepwise multivariate analysis identified only VE/VCO2 slope (p < 0.01), NYHA class (p < 0.05), and peak VO2 (p< 0.05) as conveying significant independent prognostic information.
CONCLUSION—Elderly patients with CHF have a high mortality, with the majority dead within two years. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing provides important information for risk stratification within this group and its use should not be neglected.


Keywords: cardiopulmonary exercise testing; chronic heart failure; elderly patients; risk factor stratification PMID

  11. A comparison of non-symmetric entropy-based classification trees and support vector machine for cardiovascular risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Singh, Anima; Guttag, John V

    2011-01-01

    Classification tree-based risk stratification models generate easily interpretable classification rules. This feature makes classification tree-based models appealing for use in a clinical setting, provided that they have comparable accuracy to other methods. In this paper, we present and evaluate the performance of a non-symmetric entropy-based classification tree algorithm. The algorithm is designed to accommodate class imbalance found in many medical datasets. We evaluate the performance of this algorithm, and compare it to that of SVM-based classifiers, when applied to 4219 non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome patients. We generated SVM-based classifiers using three different strategies for handling class imbalance: cost-sensitive SVM learning, synthetic minority oversampling (SMOTE), and random majority undersampling. We used both linear and radial basis kernel-based SVMs. Our classification tree models outperformed SVM-based classifiers generated using each of the three techniques. On average, the classification tree models yielded a 14% improvement in G-score and a 21% improvement in F-score relative to the linear SVM classifiers with the best performance. Similarly, our classification tree models yielded a 12% improvement in G-score and a 21% improvement in the F-score over the best RBF kernel-based SVM classifiers.

  12. Multiparametric analysis of heart rate variability used for risk stratification among survivors of acute myocardial infarction.

    PubMed

    Voss, A; Hnatkova, K; Wessel, N; Kurths, J; Sander, A; Schirdewan, A; Camm, A J; Malik, M

    1998-01-01

    A multiparametric heart rate variability analysis was performed to prove if combined heart rate variability (HRV) measures of different domains improve the result of risk stratification in patients after myocardial infarction. In this study, standard time domain, frequency domain and non-linear dynamics measures of HRV assessment were applied to 572 survivors of acute myocardial infarction. Three parameter sets each consisting of 4 parameters were applied and compared with the standard measurement of global heart rate variability HRVi. Discriminant analysis technique and t-test were performed to separate the high risk groups from the survivors. The predictive value of this approach was evaluated with receiver operator (ROC) and positive predictive accuracy (PPA) curves. Results--The discriminant analysis shows a separation of patients suffered by all cause mortality in 80% (best single parameter 74%) and sudden arrhythmic death in 86% (73%). All parameters of set 1 show a high significant difference (p < 0.001) between survivors and non-survivors based on two-tailed t-test. The specificity level of the multivariate parameter sets is at the 70% sensitivity level (ROC) about 85-90%, whereas HRVi shows maximum levels of 70%. The PPA in the all cause mortality group is at the 70% sensitivity level twice as high as the univariate HRV measure and increases to more than fourfold as high within the VT/VF group. In conclusion, in this population, the multiparametric approach with the combination of four parameters from all domains especially from NLD seems to be a better predictor of high arrhythmia risk than the standard measurement of global heart rate variability.

  13. Iodine-123-metaiodobenzylguanidine scintigraphy in risk stratification of sudden death in heart failure.

    PubMed

    Martins da Silva, Marta Inês; Vidigal Ferreira, Maria João; Morão Moreira, Ana Paula

    2013-06-01

    Metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) is a false neurotransmitter noradrenaline analogue that is taken up by the 'uptake 1' transporter mechanism in the cell membrane of presynaptic adrenergic neurons and accumulates in catecholamine storage vesicles. Since it is practically unmetabolized, it can be labeled with a radioisotope (iodine-123) in scintigraphic exams to noninvasively assess the functional status of the sympathetic innervation of organs with a significant adrenergic component, including the heart. Studies of its application in nuclear cardiology appear to confirm its value in the assessment of conditions such as coronary artery disease, heart failure, arrhythmias and sudden death. Heart failure is a global problem, with an estimated prevalence of 2% in developed countries. Sudden cardiac death is the main cause of its high mortality. The autonomic nervous system dysfunction, including sympathetic hyperactivity, that accompanies chronic heart failure is associated with progressive myocardial remodeling, declining left ventricular function and worsening symptoms, and contributes to the development of ventricular arrhythmias and sudden death. Since 123I-MIBG cardiac scintigraphy can detect changes in the cardiac adrenergic system, there is considerable interest in its role in obtaining diagnostic and prognostic information in patients with heart failure. In this article we present a literature review on the use of 123I-MIBG scintigraphy for risk stratification of sudden death in patients with heart failure.

  14. The incremental value of brachial flow-mediated dilation measurements in risk stratification for incident cardiovascular events: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Peters, Sanne A E; den Ruijter, Hester M; Bots, Michiel L

    2012-06-01

    Abstract Adequate risk assessment for cardiovascular disease (CVD) is essential as a guide to initiate drug treatment. Current methods based on traditional risk factors could be improved considerably. Although brachial flow-mediated dilation (FMD) predicts subsequent cardiovascular events, its predictive value on top of traditional risk factors is unknown. We performed a systematic review to evaluate the incremental predictive value of FMD on top of traditional risk factors in asymptomatic individuals. Using PubMed and reference tracking, three studies were identified that reported on the incremental value of FMD using change in the area under the curve (AUC). Two large cohort studies found no improvement in AUC when FMD was added to traditional risk prediction models, whereas one small case-control study found an improvement. One study used the net reclassification improvement (NRI) to assess whether FMD measurement leads to correct risk stratification in risk categories. Although this study did not find an improvement in AUC, the NRI was statistically significant. Based on the reclassification results of this study, FMD measurement might be helpful in risk prediction. Evidence supporting the use of FMD measurement in clinical practice for risk stratification for CVD on top of traditional risk factors is limited, and future studies are needed.

  15. Analysis of agreement between cardiac risk stratification protocols applied to participants of a center for cardiac rehabilitation

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Ana A. S.; Silva, Anne K. F.; Vanderlei, Franciele M.; Christofaro, Diego G. D.; Gonçalves, Aline F. L.; Vanderlei, Luiz C. M.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background Cardiac risk stratification is related to the risk of the occurrence of events induced by exercise. Despite the existence of several protocols to calculate risk stratification, studies indicating that there is similarity between these protocols are still unknown. Objective To evaluate the agreement between the existing protocols on cardiac risk rating in cardiac patients. Method The records of 50 patients from a cardiac rehabilitation program were analyzed, from which the following information was extracted: age, sex, weight, height, clinical diagnosis, medical history, risk factors, associated diseases, and the results from the most recent laboratory and complementary tests performed. This information was used for risk stratification of the patients in the protocols of the American College of Sports Medicine, the Brazilian Society of Cardiology, the American Heart Association, the protocol designed by Frederic J. Pashkow, the American Association of Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Rehabilitation, the Société Française de Cardiologie, and the Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the sample and the analysis of agreement between the protocols was calculated using the Kappa coefficient. Differences were considered with a significance level of 5%. Results Of the 21 analyses of agreement, 12 were considered significant between the protocols used for risk classification, with nine classified as moderate and three as low. No agreements were classified as excellent. Different proportions were observed in each risk category, with significant differences between the protocols for all risk categories. Conclusion The agreements between the protocols were considered low and moderate and the risk proportions differed between protocols. PMID:27556385

  16. Cloning of the first human anti-JCPyV/VP1 neutralizing monoclonal antibody: epitope definition and implications in risk stratification of patients under natalizumab therapy.

    PubMed

    Diotti, Roberta Antonia; Mancini, Nicasio; Clementi, Nicola; Sautto, Giuseppe; Moreno, Guisella Janett; Criscuolo, Elena; Cappelletti, Francesca; Man, Petr; Forest, Eric; Remy, Louise; Giannecchini, Simone; Clementi, Massimo; Burioni, Roberto

    2014-08-01

    JC virus (JCPyV) has gained novel clinical importance as cause of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a rare demyelinating disease recently associated to immunomodulatory drugs, such as natalizumab used in multiple sclerosis (MS) cases. Little is known about the mechanisms leading to PML, and this makes the need of PML risk stratification among natalizumab-treated patients very compelling. Clinical and laboratory-based risk-stratification markers have been proposed, one of these is represented by the JCPyV-seropositive status, which includes about 54% of MS patients. We recently proposed to investigate the possible protective role of neutralizing humoral immune response in preventing JCPyV reactivation. In this proof-of-concept study, by cloning the first human monoclonal antibody (GRE1) directed against a neutralizing epitope on JCPyV/VP1, we optimized a robust anti-JCPyV neutralization assay. This allowed us to evaluate the neutralizing activity in JCPyV-positive sera from MS patients, demonstrating the lack of correlation between the level of anti-JCPyV antibody and anti-JCPyV neutralizing activity. Relevant consequences may derive from future clinical studies induced by these findings; indeed the study of the serum anti-JCPyV neutralizing activity could allow not only a better risk stratification of the patients during natalizumab treatment, but also a better understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms leading to PML, highlighting the contribution of peripheral versus central nervous system JCPyV reactivation. Noteworthy, the availability of GRE1 could allow the design of novel immunoprophylactic strategies during the immunomodulatory treatment.

  17. Anomalous Coronary Arteries and Myocardial Bridges: Risk Stratification in Children Using Novel Cardiac Catheterization Techniques.

    PubMed

    Agrawal, Hitesh; Molossi, Silvana; Alam, Mahboob; Sexson-Tejtel, S Kristen; Mery, Carlos M; McKenzie, E Dean; Fraser, Charles D; Qureshi, Athar M

    2017-02-18

    The evaluation of the vast majority of children with anomalous aortic origin of a coronary artery (AAOCA) and/or myocardial bridges is performed with non-invasive testing. However, a subset of these patients may benefit from invasive testing for risk stratification. All patients included in the Coronary Anomalies Program (CAP) at Texas Children's Hospital who underwent cardiac catheterization were included. Techniques included selective coronary angiograms (SCA), intravascular ultrasound (IVUS), and fractional flow reserve (FFR) measurements with provocative testing using adenosine and/or dobutamine infusions. Out of the 131 patients followed by the CAP between 12/12-4/16, 8 (6%) patients underwent 9 cath investigations at median age 13.1 (2.6-18.7) years and median weight 49.5 (11.4-142.7) kg. Six patients presented with cardiac signs/symptoms. Four patients had myocardial bridges of the left anterior descending (LAD) coronary artery, 2 patients had isolated AAOCA, and 2 patients had an anomalous left coronary artery (LCA) with an intramyocardial course of the LAD. SCA was performed in all patients. FFR was positive in 4/6 patients: IVUS showed >70% intraluminal narrowing in 3/5 patients. One patient had hemodynamic instability that reversed with catheter removal from the coronary ostium. Based on the catheterization data obtained, findings were reassuring in three patients, surgery was performed in three patients, and two patients are being medically managed/restricted from competitive sports. In our small cohort of patients, we demonstrated that IVUS and FFR can safely be performed in children and may help to risk stratify some patients with AAOCA and myocardial bridges.

  18. Arrhythmia Phenotype during Fetal Life Suggests LQTS Genotype: Risk Stratification of Perinatal Long QT Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Cuneo, Bettina F.; Etheridge, Susan P.; Horigome, Hitoshi; Sallee, Denver; Moon-Grady, Anita; Weng, Hsin-Yi; Ackerman, Michael J.; Benson, D. Woodrow

    2014-01-01

    Background Fetal arrhythmias characteristic of long QT syndrome (LQTS) include torsades de pointes (TdP) and/or 2° atrioventricular block (AVB), but sinus bradycardia, defined as fetal heart rate <3% for gestational age, is most common. We hypothesized that prenatal rhythm phenotype might predict LQTS genotype and facilitate improved risk stratification and management. Method and Results Records of subjects exhibiting LQTS fetal arrhythmias were reviewed. Fetal echocardiograms, neonatal ECG, and genetic testing were evaluated. We studied 43 subjects exhibiting fetal LQTS arrhythmias: TdP ± 2° AVB (Group 1, n=7), isolated 2° AVB (Group 2, n=4) and sinus bradycardia (Group 3, n=32). Mutations in known LQTS genes were found in 95% of subjects tested. SCN5A mutations occurred in 71% of Group 1 while 91% of subjects with KCNQ1 mutations were in Group 3. Small numbers of subjects with KCNH2 mutations (n=4) were scattered in all 3 groups. Age at presentation did not differ among groups, and most subjects (n=42) were live born with gestational ages of 37.5±2.8 wks (mean±SD). However, those with TdP were typically delivered earlier. Prenatal treatment in Group 1 terminated (n=2) or improved (n=4) TdP. The neonatal QTc (mean±SE) of Group 1 (664.7±24.9) was longer than neonatal QTc in both Group 2 (491.2±27.6, p=0.004) and Group 3 (483.1±13.7, p<0.001). Despite medical and pacemaker therapy, postnatal cardiac arrest (n=4) or sudden death (n=1) was common among subjects with fetal/neonatal TdP. Conclusions Rhythm phenotypes of fetal LQTS have genotype-suggestive features which, along with QTc duration, may risk stratify perinatal management. PMID:23995044

  19. Multicenter Development and Validation of a Risk Stratification Tool for Ward Patients

    PubMed Central

    Yuen, Trevor C.; Winslow, Christopher; Robicsek, Ari A.; Meltzer, David O.; Gibbons, Robert D.; Edelson, Dana P.

    2014-01-01

    Rationale: Most ward risk scores were created using subjective opinion in individual hospitals and only use vital signs. Objectives: To develop and validate a risk score using commonly collected electronic health record data. Methods: All patients hospitalized on the wards in five hospitals were included in this observational cohort study. Discrete-time survival analysis was used to predict the combined outcome of cardiac arrest (CA), intensive care unit (ICU) transfer, or death on the wards. Laboratory results, vital signs, and demographics were used as predictor variables. The model was developed in the first 60% of the data at each hospital and then validated in the remaining 40%. The final model was compared with the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the net reclassification index (NRI). Measurements and Main Results: A total of 269,999 patient admissions were included, with 424 CAs, 13,188 ICU transfers, and 2,840 deaths occurring during the study period. The derived model was more accurate than the MEWS in the validation dataset for all outcomes (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.83 vs. 0.71 for CA; 0.75 vs. 0.68 for ICU transfer; 0.93 vs. 0.88 for death; and 0.77 vs. 0.70 for the combined outcome; P value < 0.01 for all comparisons). This accuracy improvement was seen across all hospitals. The NRI for the electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage compared with the MEWS was 0.28 (0.18–0.38), with a positive NRI of 0.19 (0.09–0.29) and a negative NRI of 0.09 (0.09–0.09). Conclusions: We developed an accurate ward risk stratification tool using commonly collected electronic health record variables in a large multicenter dataset. Further study is needed to determine whether implementation in real-time would improve patient outcomes. PMID:25089847

  20. Stroke Risk Stratification and its Validation using Ultrasonic Echolucent Carotid Wall Plaque Morphology: A Machine Learning Paradigm.

    PubMed

    Araki, Tadashi; Jain, Pankaj K; Suri, Harman S; Londhe, Narendra D; Ikeda, Nobutaka; El-Baz, Ayman; Shrivastava, Vimal K; Saba, Luca; Nicolaides, Andrew; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Gupta, Ajay; Suri, Jasjit S

    2017-01-01

    Stroke risk stratification based on grayscale morphology of the ultrasound carotid wall has recently been shown to have a promise in classification of high risk versus low risk plaque or symptomatic versus asymptomatic plaques. In previous studies, this stratification has been mainly based on analysis of the far wall of the carotid artery. Due to the multifocal nature of atherosclerotic disease, the plaque growth is not restricted to the far wall alone. This paper presents a new approach for stroke risk assessment by integrating assessment of both the near and far walls of the carotid artery using grayscale morphology of the plaque. Further, this paper presents a scientific validation system for stroke risk assessment. Both these innovations have never been presented before. The methodology consists of an automated segmentation system of the near wall and far wall regions in grayscale carotid B-mode ultrasound scans. Sixteen grayscale texture features are computed, and fed into the machine learning system. The training system utilizes the lumen diameter to create ground truth labels for the stratification of stroke risk. The cross-validation procedure is adapted in order to obtain the machine learning testing classification accuracy through the use of three sets of partition protocols: (5, 10, and Jack Knife). The mean classification accuracy over all the sets of partition protocols for the automated system in the far and near walls is 95.08% and 93.47%, respectively. The corresponding accuracies for the manual system are 94.06% and 92.02%, respectively. The precision of merit of the automated machine learning system when compared against manual risk assessment system are 98.05% and 97.53% for the far and near walls, respectively. The ROC of the risk assessment system for the far and near walls is close to 1.0 demonstrating high accuracy.

  1. Prognostic value of health-related quality of life for death risk stratification in patients with unresectable glioblastoma.

    PubMed

    Paquette, Brice; Vernerey, Dewi; Chauffert, Bruno; Dabakuyo, Sandrine; Feuvret, Loic; Taillandier, Luc; Frappaz, Didier; Taillia, Hervé; Schott, Roland; Ducray, François; Fabbro, Michel; Tennevet, Isabelle; Ghiringhelli, François; Guillamo, Jean-Sébastien; Durando, Xavier; Castera, Daniel; Frenay, Marc; Campello, Chantal; Dalban, Cécile; Skrzypski, Jérome; Chinot, Olivier; Anota, Amélie; Bonnetain, Franck

    2016-08-01

    Glioblastoma is the most common malignant brain tumor in adults. Baseline health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is a major subject of concern for these patients. We aimed to assess the independent prognostic value of HRQoL in unresectable glioblastoma (UGB) patients for death risk stratification. One hundred and thirty-four patients with UGB were enrolled from the TEMAVIR trial. HRQoL was evaluated at baseline using the EORTC QLQ-C30 and BN20 brain cancer module. Clinical and HRQoL parameters were evaluated in univariable and multivariable Cox analysis as prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). Performance assessment and internal validation of the final model were evaluated with Harrel's C-index, calibration plot, and bootstrap sample procedure. Two OS independent predictors were identified: future uncertainty and sensitivity deficit. The final model exhibited good calibration and acceptable discrimination (C statistic = 0.63). The internal validity of the model was verified with robust uncertainties around the hazard ratio. The prognostic score identified three groups of patients with distinctly different risk profiles with median OS estimated at 16.2, 9.2, and 4.5 months. We demonstrated the additional prognostic value of HRQoL in UGB for death risk stratification and provided a score that may help to guide clinical management and stratification in future clinical trials.

  2. BRAF V600E and risk stratification of thyroid microcarcinoma: a multicenter pathological and clinical study.

    PubMed

    Tallini, Giovanni; de Biase, Dario; Durante, Cosimo; Acquaviva, Giorgia; Bisceglia, Michele; Bruno, Rocco; Bacchi Reggiani, Maria Letizia; Casadei, Gian Piero; Costante, Giuseppe; Cremonini, Nadia; Lamartina, Livia; Meringolo, Domenico; Nardi, Francesco; Pession, Annalisa; Rhoden, Kerry J; Ronga, Giuseppe; Torlontano, Massimo; Verrienti, Antonella; Visani, Michela; Filetti, Sebastiano

    2015-10-01

    Studies from single institutions have analyzed BRAF in papillary microcarcinomas, sometimes with contradictory results. Most of them have provided limited integration of histological and clinical data. To obtain a comprehensive picture of BRAF V600E-mutated microcarcinomas and to evaluate the role of BRAF testing in risk stratification we performed a retrospective multicenter analysis integrating microscopical, pathological, and clinical information. Three hundred and sixty-five samples from 300 patients treated at six medical institutions covering different geographical regions of Italy were analyzed with central review of all cases. BRAF V600E statistical analysis was conducted on 298 microcarcinomas from 264 patients after exclusion of those that did not meet the required criteria. BRAF V600E was identified in 145/298 tumors (49%) including the following subtypes: 35/37 (95%, P<0.0001) tall cell and 72/114 (64%, P<0.0001) classic; conversely 94/129 follicular variant papillary microcarcinomas (73%, P<0.0001) were BRAF wild type. BRAF V600E-mutated microcarcinomas were characterized by markedly infiltrative contours (P<0.0001) with elongated strings of neoplastic cells departing from the tumor, and by intraglandular tumor spread (P<0.0001), typically within 5 mm of the tumor border. Multivariate analysis correlated BRAF V600E with specific microscopic features (nuclear grooves, optically clear nuclei, tall cells within the tumor, and tumor fibrosis), aggressive growth pattern (infiltrative tumor border, extension into extrathyroidal tissues, and intraglandular tumor spread), higher American Thyroid Association recurrence risk group, and non-incidental tumor discovery. The following showed the strongest link to BRAF V600E: tall cell subtype, many neoplastic cells with nuclear grooves or with optically clear nuclei, infiltrative growth, intraglandular tumor spread, and a tumor discovery that was non-incidental. BRAF V600E-mutated microcarcinomas represent a

  3. Feasibility of an automated quantitative computed tomography angiography-derived risk score for risk stratification of patients with suspected coronary artery disease.

    PubMed

    de Graaf, Michiel A; Broersen, Alexander; Ahmed, Wehab; Kitslaar, Pieter H; Dijkstra, Jouke; Kroft, Lucia J; Delgado, Victoria; Bax, Jeroen J; Reiber, Johan H C; Scholte, Arthur J

    2014-06-15

    Coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) has important prognostic value. Additionally, quantitative CTA (QCT) provides a more detailed accurate assessment of coronary artery disease (CAD) on CTA. Potentially, a risk score incorporating all quantitative stenosis parameters allows accurate risk stratification. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine if an automatic quantitative assessment of CAD using QCT combined into a CTA risk score allows risk stratification of patients. In 300 patients, QCT was performed to automatically detect and quantify all lesions in the coronary tree. Using QCT, a novel CTA risk score was calculated based on plaque extent, severity, composition, and location on a segment basis. During follow-up, the composite end point of all-cause mortality, revascularization, and nonfatal infarction was recorded. In total, 10% of patients experienced an event during a median follow-up of 2.14 years. The CTA risk score was significantly higher in patients with an event (12.5 [interquartile range 8.6 to 16.4] vs 1.7 [interquartile range 0 to 8.4], p <0.001). In 127 patients with obstructive CAD (≥50% stenosis), 27 events were recorded, all in patients with a high CTA risk score. In conclusion, the present study demonstrated that a fully automatic QCT analysis of CAD is feasible and can be applied for risk stratification of patients with suspected CAD. Furthermore, a novel CTA risk score incorporating location, severity, and composition of coronary lesion was developed. This score may improve risk stratification but needs to be confirmed in larger studies.

  4. Risk Stratification Model to Detect Early Pulmonary Disease in Infants With Cystic Fibrosis Diagnosed by Newborn Screening

    PubMed Central

    Britton, Lacrecia J.; Oates, Gabriela R.; Oster, Robert A.; Self, Staci T.; Troxler, Robert B.; Hoover, Wynton C.; Gutierrez, Hector H.; Harris, William T.

    2017-01-01

    Summary Objective The clinical benefit of newborn screening (NBS) for cystic fibrosis (CF) has been primarily nutritional, with less overt respiratory impact. Identification of risk factors for infant CF lung disease could facilitate targeted interventions to improve pulmonary outcomes. Methods This retrospective study evaluated socioeconomic information, clinical data, and results from routine infant pulmonary function testing (iPFT) of infants diagnosed with CF through NBS (N = 43) at a single CF center over a 4-year period (2008–2012). A five-item composite clinical score was developed and combined with socioeconomic indicators to facilitate identification of CF infants at increased risk of early-onset respiratory impairment. Results Paternal education was positively associated with lung function (P = 0.02). Clinical score <7 (on a scale of 0–10) predicted diminished pulmonary measure (P < 0.005). Retrospective risk stratification by clinical score and paternal education identified CF infants at low, intermediate, or high risk of pulmonary disease. Forced expiratory volume (FEV0.5%, mean ± SD) averaged 115 ± 19% in the low-risk group, 97 ± 17% in the intermediate-risk group, and 90 ± 8% in the high-risk group (P < 0.005). Results were similar for mid-expiratory flows (FEF25–75%). Multiple regression analysis confirmed the predictive value of this risk stratification model of CF infant pulmonary health. Conclusion We combined socioeconomic and clinical data to risk-stratify CF infants for early-onset lung disease as quantified by iPFT. Our model showed significant differences in infant pulmonary function across risk groups. The developed tool offers an easily available, inexpensive, and non-invasive way to assess risk of respiratory decline in CF infants and identify those meriting targeted therapeutic attention. PMID:27556254

  5. Establishment and Application of Early Risk Stratification Method for Acute Abdominal Pain in Adults

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yu; Zhao, Hong; Zhou, Zhen; Tian, Ci; Xiao, Hong-Li; Wang, Bao-En

    2017-01-01

    Background: Acute abdominal pain is a common symptom of emergency patients. The severity was always evaluated based on physicians’ clinical experience. The aim of this study was to establish an early risk stratification method (ERSM) for addressing adults with acute abdominal pain, which would guide physicians to take appropriate and timely measures following the established health-care policies. Methods: In Cohort 1, the records of 490 patients with acute abdominal pain that developed within the past 72 h were enrolled in this study. Measurement data and numeration data were compared with analysis of variance and Chi-square test, respectively. Multiple regression analysis calculated odd ratio (OR) value. P and OR values showed the impacts of factors. ERSM was established by clinical experts and statistical experts according to Youden index. In Cohort 2, data from 305 patients with acute abdominal pain were enrolled to validate the accuracy of the ERSM. Then, ERSM was prospectively used in clinical practice. Results: The ERSM was established based on the scores of the patient's clinical characteristics: right lower abdominal pain + 3 × diffuse abdominal pain + 3 × cutting abdominal pain + 3 × pain frequency + 3 × pain duration + fever + 2 × vomiting + 5 × stop defecation + 3 × history of abdominal surgery + hypertension history + diabetes history + hyperlipidemia history + pulse + 2 × skin yellowing + 2 × sclera yellowing + 2 × double lung rale + 10 × unconsciousness + 2 × right lower abdominal tenderness + 5 × diffuse abdominal tenderness + 4 × peritoneal irritation + 4 × bowel sounds abnormal + 10 × suspicious diagnosis + white blood cell count + hematocrit + glucose + 2 × blood urea nitrogen + 3 × creatine + 4 × serum albumin + alanine aminotransferase + total bilirubin + 3 × conjugated bilirubin + amylase. When the score was <18, the patient did not need hospitalization. A score of ≥18 and <38 indicated that the patient should be under

  6. Exploring the color feature power for psoriasis risk stratification and classification: A data mining paradigm.

    PubMed

    Shrivastava, Vimal K; Londhe, Narendra D; Sonawane, Rajendra S; Suri, Jasjit S

    2015-10-01

    A large percentage of dermatologist׳s decision in psoriasis disease assessment is based on color. The current computer-aided diagnosis systems for psoriasis risk stratification and classification lack the vigor of color paradigm. The paper presents an automated psoriasis computer-aided diagnosis (pCAD) system for classification of psoriasis skin images into psoriatic lesion and healthy skin, which solves the two major challenges: (i) fulfills the color feature requirements and (ii) selects the powerful dominant color features while retaining high classification accuracy. Fourteen color spaces are discovered for psoriasis disease analysis leading to 86 color features. The pCAD system is implemented in a support vector-based machine learning framework where the offline image data set is used for computing machine learning offline color machine learning parameters. These are then used for transformation of the online color features to predict the class labels for healthy vs. diseased cases. The above paradigm uses principal component analysis for color feature selection of dominant features, keeping the original color feature unaltered. Using the cross-validation protocol, the above machine learning protocol is compared against the standalone grayscale features with 60 features and against the combined grayscale and color feature set of 146. Using a fixed data size of 540 images with equal number of healthy and diseased, 10 fold cross-validation protocol, and SVM of polynomial kernel of type two, pCAD system shows an accuracy of 99.94% with sensitivity and specificity of 99.93% and 99.96%. Using a varying data size protocol, the mean classification accuracies for color, grayscale, and combined scenarios are: 92.85%, 93.83% and 93.99%, respectively. The reliability of the system in these three scenarios are: 94.42%, 97.39% and 96.00%, respectively. We conclude that pCAD system using color space alone is compatible to grayscale space or combined color and grayscale

  7. Risk stratification for invasive fungal infections in patients with hematological malignancies: SEIFEM recommendations.

    PubMed

    Pagano, Livio; Busca, Alessandro; Candoni, Anna; Cattaneo, Chiara; Cesaro, Simone; Fanci, Rosa; Nadali, Gianpaolo; Potenza, Leonardo; Russo, Domenico; Tumbarello, Mario; Nosari, Annamaria; Aversa, Franco

    2017-03-01

    Invasive fungal infections (IFIs) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in immunocompromised patients. Patients with hematological malignancies undergoing conventional chemotherapy, autologous or allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation are considered at high risk, and Aspergillus spp. represents the most frequently isolated micro-organisms. In the last years, attention has also been focused on other rare molds (e.g., Zygomycetes, Fusarium spp.) responsible for devastating clinical manifestations. The extensive use of antifungal prophylaxis has reduced the infections from yeasts (e.g., candidemia) even though they are still associated with high mortality rates. This paper analyzes concurrent multiple predisposing factors that could favor the onset of fungal infections. Although neutropenia is common to almost all hematologic patients, other factors play a key role in specific patients, in particular in patients with AML or allogeneic HSCT recipients. Defining those patients at higher risk of IFIs may help to design the most appropriate diagnostic work-up and antifungal strategy.

  8. The Role of Cardiac MRI in the Diagnosis and Risk Stratification of Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

    PubMed Central

    Maron, Martin S

    2016-01-01

    Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), the most common genetic cardiomyopathy, is a disease characterised by substantial heterogeneity. Although the majority of patients with HCM remain asymptomatic with near-normal longevity, a small, but important, subset remain at risk for a wide range of clinical outcomes including sudden death. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), with its high spatial resolution and tomographic imaging capability, has emerged as an imaging modality particularly well suited to characterise the phenotypic expression of HCM. CMR helps in the diagnosis of HCM by identifying areas of hypertrophy not well visualised by echocardiography, providing more accurate wall thickness measurements and differentiating HCM from other causes of left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy. CMR has led to the identification of novel subgroups of patients with HCM, including those with LV apical aneurysms (a subgroup at increased risk for ventricular arrhythmias and thromboembolic stroke), as well as abnormalities that contribute to LV outflow obstruction. Additionally, contrast-enhanced CMR with late-gadolinium enhancement (LGE) has recognised patients with extensive LGE (≥15 % LV myocardium) as individuals who may be at increased risk of sudden death, independent of other high-risk features, with implications on management strategies including consideration for primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy. These observations justify an expanded role of CMR in the routine clinical assessment of patients with HCM. PMID:28116085

  9. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  10. Diagnostic evaluation of people with hypertension in low income country: cohort study of “essential” method of risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Montalvo, Gregorio; Anselmi, Mariella; Prandi, Rosanna; Ibarra, Samuel; Marquez, Monica; Armani, Daniela; Moreira, Juan-Martín; Caicedo, Cynthia; Roncaglioni, Maria Carla; Colombo, Fabio; Camisasca, Paola; Milani, Valentina; Quimì, Simon; Gonzabay, Felix; Tognoni, Gianni

    2008-01-01

    Objectives To explore the predictive power of a risk stratification method for people with hypertension based on “essential” procedures (that is, available in economically less developed areas of the world), comparing it in the same population with the results given by the method suggested by the 1999 World Health Organization-International Society of Hypertension (WHO-ISH) guidelines. Design Prospective cohort study of outcomes according to cardiovascular risk profile at baseline. Setting Primary care in a poor rural area of the Ecuadorian forest. Participants 504 people with hypertension prospectively monitored for a mean of 6.7 (SD 2.3) years. Interventions Essential data included blood pressure, medical history, smoking, age, sex, and diagnosis of diabetes; the WHO-ISH methods additionally included measurement of fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, and creatinine, urinalysis, and electrocardiography. Main outcome measures Cardiovascular events and total deaths. Results With both methods there was a highly significant association between the level of predicted risk and the incidence of cardiovascular events and of total deaths: up to three quarters of all cardiovascular events and two thirds of all deaths were reported among people classified as at high or very high risk with either method. The predictive discrimination of the essential method is comparable with the WHO-ISH with C statistics (95% confidence interval) of 0.788 (0.721 to 0.855) and 0.744 (0.673 to 0.815), respectively, for cardiovascular events and 0.747 (0.678 to 0.816) and 0.705 (0.632 to 0.778) for total mortality. Conclusions The risk stratification of patients with hypertension with an essential package of variables (that is, available and practicable even in the economically less developed areas of the world) serves at least as well as the more comprehensive method proposed by WHO-ISH. PMID:18805835

  11. The role of early 18F-FDG PET/CT in therapeutic management and ongoing risk stratification of high/intermediate-risk thyroid carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Triviño Ibáñez, E M; Muros, M A; Torres Vela, E; Llamas Elvira, J M

    2016-03-01

    Little is known about the role in ongoing risk stratification of fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) performed early after radioactive iodine (RAI) ablation in differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC). The aim of the study is to investigate whether 18F-FDG PET/CT performed early after RAI ablation is useful to detect disease and to influence therapy and ongoing risk stratification. Patients with high/intermediate risk of recurrent DTC were included. 18F-FDG PET/CT scan was performed within 6 months after RAI ablation. We confirmed results with other imaging techniques, pathology reports, or follow-up. We classified the patient response as excellent, acceptable, or incomplete. Modified Hicks criteria were used to evaluate clinical impact. We included 81 patients with high/intermediate risk of recurrent DTC. Forty-one (50.6%) had positive uptake in 18F-FDG PET/CT, with negative (131)I whole-body scan ((131)I WBS). Sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy of 18F-FDG PET/CT were 92.5, 90.2, and 91.4%, respectively. 18F-FDG PET/CT results had an impact on therapy in 38.3% of patients. One year after initial therapy, 45.7% showed excellent response, 8.6% acceptable response, and 45.7% incomplete response. A statistically significant relationship was found between negative 18F-FDG PET/CT and excellent response (80 vs. 12.2%, p < 0.001; OR 52.8). 18F-FDG PET/CT scan performed early in surveillance of patients with high/intermediate-risk thyroid carcinoma provides important additional information not available with conventional follow-up methods and had a high impact on therapy. A negative 18F-FDG PET/CT predicts an excellent response to therapy in the new ongoing risk stratification.

  12. Risk stratification, treatment selection, and transplant eligibility in multiple myeloma: a qualitative study of the perspectives and self-reported practices of oncologists

    PubMed Central

    LeBlanc, T.W.; Howson, A.; Turell, W.; Sheldon, P.; Locke, S.C.; Tuchman, S.A.; Gasparetto, C.; Kaura, S.; Khan, Z.M.; Abernethy, A.P.

    2016-01-01

    Background Since the early 2000s, treatment options for multiple myeloma have rapidly expanded, adding significant complexity to the management of this disease. To our knowledge, no systematic qualitative research on clinical decision-making in multiple myeloma has been published. We sought to characterize how physicians view and implement guidelines and incorporate novel approaches into patient care. Methods We designed a semi-structured qualitative interview guide informed by literature review and an expert advisory panel. We conducted 60-minute interviews with a diverse sample of oncology physicians in the southeast United States. We used a constant comparative method to code and analyze interview transcripts. The research team and advisory panel discussed and validated emergent themes. Results Participants were 13 oncologists representing 5 academic and 4 community practices. Academic physicians reported using formal risk-stratification schemas; community physicians typically did not. Physicians also described differences in eligibility criteria for transplantation; community physicians emphasized distance, social support, and psychosocial capacity in making decisions about transplantation referral; the academic physicians reported using more specific clinical criteria. All physicians reported using a maintenance strategy both for post-transplant and for transplant-ineligible patients; however, determining the timing of maintenance therapy initiation and the response were reported as challenging, as was recognition or definition of relapse, especially in terms of when treatment re-initiation is indicated. Conclusions Practices reported by both academic and community physicians suggest opportunities for interventions to improve patient care and outcomes through optimal multiple myeloma management and therapy selection. Community physicians in particular might benefit from targeted education interventions about risk stratification, transplant eligibility, and

  13. Stratification systems as prognostic tools for defining risk of lymph node metastasis in penile squamous cell carcinomas.

    PubMed

    Chaux, Alcides; Cubilla, Antonio L

    2012-05-01

    Inguinal lymph node metastasis is the single most important factor for predicting survival in patients with penile squamous cell carcinomas. To estimate the likelihood of this event, investigators have combined pathologic features of the primary tumor in the form of stratification systems. In this article we review 3 such systems (Solsona et al, J Urol 2001;165:1506; Hungerhuber et al, Urology 68:621, 2006; and Chaux et al, Am J Surg Pathol 2009;33:1049) built upon histologic grade, extent and depth of tumor invasion, and perineural invasion. We evaluate their usefulness, limitations, and possible implications for the management of patients with penile cancer. We also provide clues for the proper identification and interpretation of these pathologic features. Inguinal metastases were observed in 64% to 83% of patients in high-risk groups, 20% to 33% of intermediate groups, and 0% to 8% of low-risk groups. The results of these studies suggest that patients in high-risk groups could benefit from prophylactic bilateral groin dissection. In addition, patients in low-risk groups might be managed by surveillance alone. Finally, the authors suggest that additional approaches, such as sentinel lymph node biopsy, should be used for the intermediate-risk group. The identification of other pathologic features, such as vascular and perineural invasion, could tip the scales in problematic or paradoxical cases. The fate of these risk groups would be better defined by the identification of molecular biomarkers and genetic profiling.

  14. A perspective on the range of gasoline compression ignition combustion strategies for high engine efficiency and low NOx and soot emissions: Effects of in-cylinder fuel stratification

    DOE PAGES

    Dempsey, Adam B.; Curran, Scott J.; Wagner, Robert M.

    2016-01-14

    Many research studies have shown that low temperature combustion in compression ignition engines has the ability to yield ultra-low NOx and soot emissions while maintaining high thermal efficiency. To achieve low temperature combustion, sufficient mixing time between the fuel and air in a globally dilute environment is required, thereby avoiding fuel-rich regions and reducing peak combustion temperatures, which significantly reduces soot and NOx formation, respectively. It has been demonstrated that achieving low temperature combustion with diesel fuel over a wide range of conditions is difficult because of its properties, namely, low volatility and high chemical reactivity. On the contrary, gasolinemore » has a high volatility and low chemical reactivity, meaning it is easier to achieve the amount of premixing time required prior to autoignition to achieve low temperature combustion. In order to achieve low temperature combustion while meeting other constraints, such as low pressure rise rates and maintaining control over the timing of combustion, in-cylinder fuel stratification has been widely investigated for gasoline low temperature combustion engines. The level of fuel stratification is, in reality, a continuum ranging from fully premixed (i.e. homogeneous charge of fuel and air) to heavily stratified, heterogeneous operation, such as diesel combustion. However, to illustrate the impact of fuel stratification on gasoline compression ignition, the authors have identified three representative operating strategies: partial, moderate, and heavy fuel stratification. Thus, this article provides an overview and perspective of the current research efforts to develop engine operating strategies for achieving gasoline low temperature combustion in a compression ignition engine via fuel stratification. In this paper, computational fluid dynamics modeling of the in-cylinder processes during the closed valve portion of the cycle was used to illustrate the opportunities

  15. A perspective on the range of gasoline compression ignition combustion strategies for high engine efficiency and low NOx and soot emissions: Effects of in-cylinder fuel stratification

    SciTech Connect

    Dempsey, Adam B.; Curran, Scott J.; Wagner, Robert M.

    2016-01-14

    Many research studies have shown that low temperature combustion in compression ignition engines has the ability to yield ultra-low NOx and soot emissions while maintaining high thermal efficiency. To achieve low temperature combustion, sufficient mixing time between the fuel and air in a globally dilute environment is required, thereby avoiding fuel-rich regions and reducing peak combustion temperatures, which significantly reduces soot and NOx formation, respectively. It has been demonstrated that achieving low temperature combustion with diesel fuel over a wide range of conditions is difficult because of its properties, namely, low volatility and high chemical reactivity. On the contrary, gasoline has a high volatility and low chemical reactivity, meaning it is easier to achieve the amount of premixing time required prior to autoignition to achieve low temperature combustion. In order to achieve low temperature combustion while meeting other constraints, such as low pressure rise rates and maintaining control over the timing of combustion, in-cylinder fuel stratification has been widely investigated for gasoline low temperature combustion engines. The level of fuel stratification is, in reality, a continuum ranging from fully premixed (i.e. homogeneous charge of fuel and air) to heavily stratified, heterogeneous operation, such as diesel combustion. However, to illustrate the impact of fuel stratification on gasoline compression ignition, the authors have identified three representative operating strategies: partial, moderate, and heavy fuel stratification. Thus, this article provides an overview and perspective of the current research efforts to develop engine operating strategies for achieving gasoline low temperature combustion in a compression ignition engine via fuel stratification. In this paper, computational fluid dynamics modeling of the in-cylinder processes during the closed valve portion of the cycle was used to illustrate the opportunities and

  16. Enhancing risk stratification for use in integrated care: a cluster analysis of high-risk patients in a retrospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Vuik, Sabine I; Mayer, Erik; Darzi, Ara

    2016-01-01

    Objective To show how segmentation can enhance risk stratification tools for integrated care, by providing insight into different care usage patterns within the high-risk population. Design A retrospective cohort study. A risk score was calculated for each person using a logistic regression, which was then used to select the top 5% high-risk individuals. This population was segmented based on the usage of different care settings using a k-means cluster analysis. Data from 2008 to 2011 were used to create the risk score and segments, while 2012 data were used to understand the predictive abilities of the models. Setting and participants Data were collected from administrative data sets covering primary and secondary care for a random sample of 300 000 English patients. Main measures The high-risk population was segmented based on their usage of 4 different care settings: emergency acute care, elective acute care, outpatient care and GP care. Results While the risk strata predicted care usage at a high level, within the high-risk population, usage varied significantly. 4 different groups of high-risk patients could be identified. These 4 segments had distinct usage patterns across care settings, reflecting different levels and types of care needs. The 2008–2011 usage patterns of the 4 segments were consistent with the 2012 patterns. Discussion Cluster analyses revealed that the high-risk population is not homogeneous, as there exist 4 groups of patients with different needs across the care continuum. Since the patterns were predictive of future care use, they can be used to develop integrated care programmes tailored to these different groups. Conclusions Usage-based segmentation augments risk stratification by identifying patient groups with different care needs, around which integrated care programmes can be designed. PMID:27993905

  17. Robust Derivation of Risk Reduction Strategies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richardson, Julian; Port, Daniel; Feather, Martin

    2007-01-01

    Effective risk reduction strategies can be derived mechanically given sufficient characterization of the risks present in the system and the effectiveness of available risk reduction techniques. In this paper, we address an important question: can we reliably expect mechanically derived risk reduction strategies to be better than fixed or hand-selected risk reduction strategies, given that the quantitative assessment of risks and risk reduction techniques upon which mechanical derivation is based is difficult and likely to be inaccurate? We consider this question relative to two methods for deriving effective risk reduction strategies: the strategic method defined by Kazman, Port et al [Port et al, 2005], and the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool [Feather & Cornford, 2003]. We performed a number of sensitivity experiments to evaluate how inaccurate knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques affect the performance of the strategies computed by the Strategic Method compared to a variety of alternative strategies. The experimental results indicate that strategies computed by the Strategic Method were significantly more effective than the alternative risk reduction strategies, even when knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques was very inaccurate. The robustness of the Strategic Method suggests that its use should be considered in a wide range of projects.

  18. Cardiac Magnetic Resonance-Verified Myocardial Fibrosis in Chagas Disease: Clinical Correlates and Risk Stratification

    PubMed Central

    Uellendahl, Marly; de Siqueira, Maria Eduarda Menezes; Calado, Eveline Barros; Kalil-Filho, Roberto; Sobral, Dário; Ribeiro, Clébia; Oliveira, Wilson; Martins, Silvia; Narula, Jagat; Rochitte, Carlos Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Background Chagas disease (CD) is an important cause of heart failure and mortality, mainly in Latin America. This study evaluated the morphological and functional characteristics of the heart as well the extent of myocardial fibrosis (MF) in patients with CD by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR). The prognostic value of MF evaluated by myocardial-delayed enhancement (MDE) was compared with that via Rassi score. Methods This study assessed 39 patients divided into 2 groups: 28 asymptomatic patients as indeterminate form group (IND); and symptomatic patients as Chagas Heart Disease (CHD) group. All patients underwent CMR using the techniques of cine-MRI and MDE, and the amount of MF was compared with the Rassi score. Results Regarding the morphological and functional analysis, significant differences were observed between both groups (p < 0.001). Furthermore, there was a strong correlation between the extent of MF and the Rassi score (r = 0.76). Conclusions CMR is an important technique for evaluating patients with CD, stressing morphological and functional differences in all clinical presentations. The strong correlation with the Rassi score and the extent of MF detected by CMR emphasizes its role in the prognostic stratification of patients with CD. PMID:27982271

  19. Integrating clinical trial findings into practice through risk stratification: the case of heart failure management.

    PubMed

    Smith, David H; Johnson, Eric S; Thorp, Micah L; Crispell, Kathy A; Yang, Xiuhai; Petrik, Amanda F

    2010-06-01

    Heart failure case management programs have been shown in clinical trials to be highly effective at preventing future hospitalizations. But the absolute benefits of these programs depend on the baseline risk of outcome in the treated population. Because baseline risks of hospitalization in trials are often higher than community-based samples, translating trial results to the community setting may be misleading. One solution is to identify subgroups for intervention that have sufficiently high baseline risk. Using estimates of hospitalizations averted from a previously published systematic review of heart failure management, we estimated a program's efficiency based on level of predicted risk. Medical history and demographic data on heart failure patients from a large integrated US health plan were used to build a logistic regression-based prognostic risk score for cardiovascular-related hospitalization over 1 year. We calculated the crude rate of hospitalizations for comparison with trial data. We also calculated the program's potential dollar savings from averting hospitalizations. The average risk of hospitalization in the systematic review's trials was 45%; our population's average observed risk was 18% and the risk among the highest risk patients was 33%. After accounting for the assumed annual intervention cost of $700, the base-case analysis (at $6000 per hospitalization) shows a savings of $122/patient at highest risk; failing to intervene according to predicted risk (no targeting) would actually cost $211/patient. Our findings illustrate how clinical trial findings can be efficiently integrated into community settings by using a prognostic risk score to focus attention on high-risk subgroups.

  20. Risk stratification in the patient with non ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome.

    PubMed

    Escabí-Mendoza, José; Rosales-Alvarez, Claudia

    2005-12-01

    Patients hospitalized with unstable angina (UA) or with a non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarct (NSTEMI) are at increased risk of suffering refractory angina, recurrent myocardial infarct (MI), and death. These patients need to be evaluated more aggressively. According to the last published guidelines (2002) of UA/NSTEMI by the ACC/AHA Task Force, these patients should be categorized in a risk scale as: low, intermediate or high. This should be done in the initial evaluation, which includes: medical history, physical exam, an electrocardiogram (ECG) and cardiac markers. The TIMI risk score should also be used as complementary in this risk assessment. High risk patients, without contraindications, should be managed more aggressively with coronary angiography. On the other end, low risk patients, and some intermediate, may be evaluated more conservatively with early non-invasive studies for further assessment of ischemia and prognosis.

  1. Risk Stratification for Proven Acute Pulmonary Embolism: What Information Is Needed?

    PubMed

    Barrios, Deisy; Yusen, Roger D; Jiménez, David

    2017-02-01

    Classification of risk drives treatment decisions for patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE). High-risk patients with acute symptomatic PE have hemodynamic instability (i.e., shock or hypotension present), and treatment guidelines suggest systemically administered thrombolytic therapy in this setting. Normotensive PE patients at low risk for early complications (low-risk PE) might benefit from treatment at home or early discharge, while normotensive patients with preserved systemic arterial pressure deemed as having a high risk for PE-related adverse clinical events (intermediate-high-risk PE) might benefit from close observation and consideration of escalation of therapy. Prognostic tools (e.g., clinical prognostic scoring systems, imaging testing, and cardiac laboratory biomarkers) assist with the classification of patients into these categories.

  2. Decreased ADAMTS-13 level is related to inflammation factors and risk stratification of acute lymphoblastic leukemia patients

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Chen; Zhao, Lei; Zhao, Jingzhong; Xu, Qinzhu; Song, Ying; Wang, Hui

    2017-01-01

    Abstract As a kind of metalloprotease of the ADAMTS family, ADAMTS-13 is crucial for maintaining the normal size of von Willebrand factor. Reduced ADAMTS-13 had been reported in patients with both localized and disseminated malignancies. However, the expression and potential role of ADAMTS-13 in hematological malignancies remain unclear. In this research, we measured and compared ADAMTS-13 levels in plasma of 35 acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) patients and 30 healthy controls and found that ALL patients possessed lower level of ADAMTS-13 than controls. Correlations between ADAMTS-13 and inflammation factors were calculated and ADAMTS-13 was negatively correlated with C-reactive protein and interleukin-1β. ALL patients with infections had lower level of ADAMTS-13 than patients without infections. In addition, high-risk ALL patients possessed lower ADAMTS-13 than patients at low risk. To conclude, ADAMTS-13 level is decreased in the plasma of ALL patients and the level of ADAMTS-13 is related to plasma inflammation factors and risk stratification of ALL patients, which could contribute to better understanding of the clinical significance of ADAMTS-13. PMID:28207543

  3. Outcome Predictors in Prosthetic Joint Infections--Validation of a risk stratification score for Prosthetic Joint Infections in 120 cases.

    PubMed

    Wimmer, Matthias D; Randau, Thomas M; Friedrich, Max J; Ploeger, Milena M; Schmolder, Jan; Strauss, Andreas C; Pennekamp, Peter H; Vavken, Patrick; Gravius, Sascha

    2016-03-01

    Prosthetic joint infections are a major challenge in total joint arthroplasty, especially in times of accumulating drug resistancies. Even though predictive risk classifications are a widely accepted tool to define a suitable treatment protocol a classification is still missing considering the difficulty in treating the -causative pathogen antibiotically. In this study, we present and evaluate a new predictive risk stratification for prosthetic joint infections in 120 cases, treated with a two-stage exchange. Treatment outcomes in 120 patients with proven prosthetic joint infections in hip and knee prostheses were regressed on time of infection, systemic risk factors, local risk factors and the difficulty in treating the causing pathogen. The main outcome variable was "definitely free of infection" after two years as published. Age, gender, and BMI were included as covariables and analyzed in a logistic regression model. 66 male and 54 female patients, with a mean age at surgery of 68.3 years±12.0 and a mean BMI of 26.05±6.21 were included in our survey and followed for 29.0±11.3 months. We found a significant association (p<0.001) between our score and the outcome parameters evaluated. Age, gender and BMI did not show a significant association with the outcome. These results show that our score is an independent and reliable predictor for the cure rate in prosthetic joint infections in hip and knee prostheses treated within a two-stage exchange protocol. Our score illustrates, that there is a statistically significant, sizable decrease in cure rate with an increase in score. In patients with prosthetic joint infections the validation of a risk score may help to identify patients with local and systemic risk factors or with infectious organisms identified as "difficult to treat" prior to the treatment or the decision about the treatment concept. Thus, appropriate extra care should be considered and provided.

  4. Integration of Different Risk Assessment Tools to Improve Stratification of Patients with Coronary Artery Disease.

    PubMed

    Paredes, S; Rocha, T; de Carvalho, P; Henriques, J; Morais, J; Ferreira, J

    2015-10-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) causes unaffordable social and health costs that tend to increase as the European population ages. In this context, clinical guidelines recommend the use of risk scores to predict the risk of a cardiovascular disease event. Some useful tools have been developed to predict the risk of occurrence of a cardiovascular disease event (e.g. hospitalization or death). However, these tools present some drawbacks. These problems are addressed through two methodologies: (i) combination of risk assessment tools: fusion of naïve Bayes classifiers complemented with a genetic optimization algorithm and (ii) personalization of risk assessment: subtractive clustering applied to a reduced-dimensional space to create groups of patients. Validation was performed based on two ACS-NSTEMI patient data sets. This work improved the performance in relation to current risk assessment tools, achieving maximum values of sensitivity, specificity, and geometric mean of, respectively, 79.8, 83.8, and 80.9 %. Additionally, it assured clinical interpretability, ability to incorporate of new risk factors, higher capability to deal with missing risk factors and avoiding the selection of a standard CVD risk assessment tool to be applied in the clinical practice.

  5. Risk stratification and rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department – a quasi-randomised controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background To determine if risk stratification followed by rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department (ED) reduced functional decline, ED reattendance and hospitalisation. Method This was a quasi-randomised controlled trial. Patients were randomised by the last digit of their national registration identity card (NRIC). Odd number controls received standard ED care; even number patients received geriatric screening, followed by intervention and/or onward referrals. Patients were followed up for 12 months. Results There were 500 and 280 patients in the control and intervention groups. The intervention group had higher Triage Risk Screening Tool (TRST) scores (34.3% vs 25.4% TRST ≥3, p = 0.01) and lower baseline Instrumental Activity of Daily Living (IADL) scores (22.84 vs 24.18, p < 0.01). 82.9% of the intervention group had unmet needs; 62.1% accepted our interventions. Common positive findings were fall risk (65.0%), vision (61.4%), and footwear (58.2%). 28.2% were referred to a geriatric clinic and 11.8% were admitted. 425 (85.0%) controls and 234 (83.6%) in the intervention group completed their follow-up. After adjusting for TRST and baseline IADL, the intervention group had significant preservation in function (Basic ADL -0.99 vs -0.24, p < 0.01; IADL -2.57 vs +0.45, p < 0.01) at 12 months. The reduction in ED reattendance (OR0.75, CI 0.55-1.03, p = 0.07) and hospitalization (OR0.77, CI0.57-1.04, p = 0.09) were not significant, however the real difference would have been wider as 21.2% of the control group received geriatric screening at the request of the ED doctor. A major limitation was that a large proportion of patients who were randomized to the intervention group either refused (18.8%) or left the ED before being approached (32.0%). These two groups were not followed up, and hence were excluded in our analysis. Conclusion Risk stratification and focused geriatric screening in ED resulted in significant preservation

  6. Impact of Primary Gleason Grade on Risk Stratification for Gleason Score 7 Prostate Cancers

    SciTech Connect

    Koontz, Bridget F.; Tsivian, Matvey; Mouraviev, Vladimir; Sun, Leon; Vujaskovic, Zeljko; Moul, Judd; Lee, W. Robert

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. Methods: One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D'Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Results: Nine hundred seventy-nine patients had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Conclusions: Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities.

  7. Malaria ecotypes and stratification.

    PubMed

    Schapira, Allan; Boutsika, Konstantina

    2012-01-01

    To deal with the variability of malaria, control programmes need to stratify their malaria problem into a number of smaller units. Such stratification may be based on the epidemiology of malaria or on its determinants such as ecology. An ecotype classification was developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) around 1990, and it is time to assess its usefulness for current malaria control as well as for malaria modelling on the basis of published research. Journal and grey literature was searched for articles on malaria or Anopheles combined with ecology or stratification. It was found that all malaria in the world today could be assigned to one or more of the following ecotypes: savanna, plains and valleys; forest and forest fringe; foothill; mountain fringe and northern and southern fringes; desert fringe; coastal and urban. However, some areas are in transitional or mixed zones; furthermore, the implications of any ecotype depend on the biogeographical region, sometimes subregion, and finally, the knowledge on physiography needs to be supplemented by local information on natural, anthropic and health system processes including malaria control. Ecotyping can therefore not be seen as a shortcut to determine control interventions, but rather as a framework to supplement available epidemiological and entomological data so as to assess malaria situations at the local level, think through the particular risks and opportunities and reinforce intersectoral action. With these caveats, it does however emerge that several ecotypic distinctions are well defined and have relatively constant implications for control within certain biogeographic regions. Forest environments in the Indo-malay and the Neotropics are, with a few exceptions, associated with much higher malaria risk than in adjacent areas; the vectors are difficult to control, and the anthropic factors also often converge to impose constraints. Urban malaria in Africa is associated with lower risk than savanna

  8. An Official American Thoracic Society Clinical Practice Guideline: Diagnosis, Risk Stratification, and Management of Pulmonary Hypertension of Sickle Cell Disease

    PubMed Central

    Klings, Elizabeth S.; Machado, Roberto F.; Barst, Robyn J.; Morris, Claudia R.; Mubarak, Kamal K.; Gordeuk, Victor R.; Kato, Gregory J.; Ataga, Kenneth I.; Gibbs, J. Simon; Castro, Oswaldo; Rosenzweig, Erika B.; Sood, Namita; Hsu, Lewis; Wilson, Kevin C.; Telen, Marilyn J.; DeCastro, Laura M.; Krishnamurti, Lakshmanan; Steinberg, Martin H.; Badesch, David B.; Gladwin, Mark T.

    2014-01-01

    Background: In adults with sickle cell disease (SCD), an increased tricuspid regurgitant velocity (TRV) measured by Doppler echocardiography, an increased serum N-terminal pro–brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) level, and pulmonary hypertension (PH) diagnosed by right heart catheterization (RHC) are independent risk factors for mortality. Methods: A multidisciplinary committee was formed by clinician-investigators experienced in the management of patients with PH and/or SCD. Clinically important questions were posed, related evidence was appraised, and questions were answered with evidence-based recommendations. Target audiences include all clinicians who take care of patients with SCD. Results: Mortality risk stratification guides decision making. An increased risk for mortality is defined as a TRV equal to or greater than 2.5 m/second, an NT-pro-BNP level equal to or greater than 160 pg/ml, or RHC-confirmed PH. For patients identified as having increased mortality risk, we make a strong recommendation for hydroxyurea as first-line therapy and a weak recommendation for chronic transfusions as an alternative therapy. For all patients with SCD with elevated TRV alone or elevated NT-pro-BNP alone, and for patients with SCD with RHC-confirmed PH with elevated pulmonary artery wedge pressure and low pulmonary vascular resistance, we make a strong recommendation against PAH-specific therapy. However, for select patients with SCD with RHC-confirmed PH who have elevated pulmonary vascular resistance and normal pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, we make a weak recommendation for either prostacyclin agonist or endothelin receptor antagonist therapy and a strong recommendation against phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitor therapy. Conclusions: Evidence-based recommendations for the management of patients with SCD with increased mortality risk are provided, but will require frequent reassessment and updating. PMID:24628312

  9. Effect of Preoperative Risk Group Stratification on Oncologic Outcomes of Patients with Adverse Pathologic Findings at Radical Prostatectomy

    PubMed Central

    Jang, Won Sik; Kim, Lawrence H. C.; Yoon, Cheol Yong; Rha, Koon Ho; Choi, Young Deuk; Hong, Sung Joon; Ham, Won Sik

    2016-01-01

    Background Current National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines recommend postoperative radiation therapy based only on adverse pathologic findings (APFs), irrespective of preoperative risk group. We assessed whether a model incorporating both the preoperative risk group and APFs could predict long-term oncologic outcomes better than a model based on APFs alone. Methods We retrospectively reviewed 4,404 men who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) at our institution between 1992 and 2014. After excluding patients receiving neoadjuvant therapy or with incomplete pathological or follow-up data, 3,092 men were included in the final analysis. APFs were defined as extraprostatic extension (EPE), seminal vesicle invasion (SVI), or a positive surgical margin (PSM). The adequacy of model fit to the data was compared using the likelihood-ratio test between the models with and without risk groups, and model discrimination was compared with the concordance index (c-index) for predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) and prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). We performed multivariate Cox proportional hazard model and competing risk regression analyses to identify predictors of BCR and PCSM in the total patient group and each of the risk groups. Results Adding risk groups to the model containing only APFs significantly improved the fit to the data (likelihood-ratio test, p <0.001) and the c-index increased from 0.693 to 0.732 for BCR and from 0.707 to 0.747 for PCSM. A RP Gleason score (GS) ≥8 and a PSM were independently associated with BCR in the total patient group and also each risk group. However, only a GS ≥8 and SVI were associated with PCSM in the total patient group (GS ≥8: hazard ratio [HR] 5.39 and SVI: HR 3.36) and the high-risk group (GS ≥8: HR 6.31 and SVI: HR 4.05). Conclusion The postoperative estimation of oncologic outcomes in men with APFs at RP was improved by considering preoperative risk group stratification. Although a PSM was an

  10. HO-1, RET and PML as possible markers for risk stratification of acute myelocytic leukemia and prognostic evaluation.

    PubMed

    Yu, Meisheng; Wang, Jishi; Ma, Dan; Chen, Shuya; Lin, Xiaojing; Fang, Qin; Zhe, Nana

    2015-11-01

    Heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) is an inducible isoform of HO that is activated in response to oxidative stress and has anti-apoptotic and pro-proliferative effects on leukemia cells. RET, a tyrosine kinase receptor; its expression levels are associated with the differentiation degree of acute myelocytic leukemia (AML) cells. The promyelocytic leukemia (PML) gene inhibits cell proliferation and tumor growth, participates in the differentiation of hematopoietic progenitor cells and induces cell apoptosis. However, the association between the expression levels of HO-1, RET and PML genes and the risk stratification of AML and prognosis have not previously been reported. In the present study, HO-1 was expressed in the human AML Kasumi-1, HL-60 and THP-1 cell lines, and HO-1 expression was regulated by Hemin (20 µmol/l) and ZnPPIX (10 µmol/l). Reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) analysis demonstrated that expression of RET and PML were positively and negatively correlated with HO-1 expression, respectively. Bone marrow samples (18 favorable, 55 intermediate, 15 adverse and 2 unknown karyotype AML cases and 20 healthy donors) were collected from 90 randomly selected AML patients upon their first visit. The mRNA and protein expression of HO-1, RET and PML in samples was detected by RT-qPCR and western blot analysis. At the mRNA level, the adverse group expressed significantly higher levels of HO-1 and RET compared with the levels in the favorable and normal groups. The PML mRNA expression levels in adverse patient samples was lower compared with those of the intermediate group and favorable group. Western blot analysis demonstrated that the expression levels of HO-1, RET and PML proteins in all risk groups exhibited the same pattern of expression as was observed for the mRNA levels. The overall survival and relapse-free survival rates were shortest in AML patients with high HO-1 expression (Kaplan-Meier; log-rank, P<0.01). The results of the

  11. Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance: Using risk stratification to guide follow-up.

    PubMed

    Uddin, Zia; Maennle, Diane; Russell, Kimberly; Boltri, John M

    2015-07-01

    Varying combinations of 3 measurable factors determine a patient's risk of progressing toward multiple myeloma and influence monitoring decisions. This review--and accompanying algorithm--can guide your approach. For monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) patients at low risk, repeat serum protein electrophoresis (SPE) in 6 months. If no significant elevation of M-protein is found, repeat SPE every 2 to 3 years.

  12. Development of a Bayesian Classifier for Breast Cancer Risk Stratification: A Feasibility Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-03-29

    women, and raloxifene may be considered in postmenopausal women, with lobular carcinoma in situ or with a 5-year breast cancer risk estimate of 1.66% or...Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation (MORE), Continuing Outcomes Relevant to Evista (CORE), Raloxifene Use for the Heart (RUTH,) and NSABP Study of...Tamoxifen and Raloxifene (STAR) trials demonstrated consistent significant reductions in estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer incidence in at-risk

  13. Does von Willebrand factor improve the predictive ability of current risk stratification scores in patients with atrial fibrillation?

    PubMed Central

    García-Fernández, Amaya; Roldán, Vanessa; Rivera-Caravaca, José Miguel; Hernández-Romero, Diana; Valdés, Mariano; Vicente, Vicente; Lip, Gregory Y. H.; Marín, Francisco

    2017-01-01

    Von Willebrand factor (vWF) is a biomarker of endothelial dysfunction. We investigated its role on prognosis in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation (AF) patients and determined whether its addition to clinical risk stratification schemes improved event-risk prediction. Consecutive outpatients with non-valvular AF were recruited and rates of thrombotic/cardiovascular events, major bleeding and mortality were recorded. The effect of vWF on prognosis was calculated using a Cox regression model. Improvements in predictive accuracy over current scores were determined by calculating the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI), comparison of receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA). 1215 patients (49% males, age 76 (71–81) years) were included. Follow-up was almost 7 years. Significant associations were found between vWF and cardiovascular events, stroke, mortality and bleeding. Based on IDI and NRI, addition of vWF to CHA2DS2-VASc statistically improved its predictive value, but c-indexes were not significantly different. For major bleeding, the addition of vWF to HAS-BLED improved the c-index but not IDI or NRI. DCA showed minimal net benefit. vWF acts as a simple prognostic biomarker in AF and, whilst its addition to current scores statistically improves prediction for some endpoints, absolute changes and impact on clinical decision-making are marginal. PMID:28134282

  14. Sudden Cardiac Risk Stratification with Electrocardiographic Indices - A Review on Computational Processing, Technology Transfer, and Scientific Evidence.

    PubMed

    Gimeno-Blanes, Francisco J; Blanco-Velasco, Manuel; Barquero-Pérez, Óscar; García-Alberola, Arcadi; Rojo-Álvarez, José L

    2016-01-01

    Great effort has been devoted in recent years to the development of sudden cardiac risk predictors as a function of electric cardiac signals, mainly obtained from the electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis. But these prediction techniques are still seldom used in clinical practice, partly due to its limited diagnostic accuracy and to the lack of consensus about the appropriate computational signal processing implementation. This paper addresses a three-fold approach, based on ECG indices, to structure this review on sudden cardiac risk stratification. First, throughout the computational techniques that had been widely proposed for obtaining these indices in technical literature. Second, over the scientific evidence, that although is supported by observational clinical studies, they are not always representative enough. And third, via the limited technology transfer of academy-accepted algorithms, requiring further meditation for future systems. We focus on three families of ECG derived indices which are tackled from the aforementioned viewpoints, namely, heart rate turbulence (HRT), heart rate variability (HRV), and T-wave alternans. In terms of computational algorithms, we still need clearer scientific evidence, standardizing, and benchmarking, siting on advanced algorithms applied over large and representative datasets. New scenarios like electronic health recordings, big data, long-term monitoring, and cloud databases, will eventually open new frameworks to foresee suitable new paradigms in the near future.

  15. Sudden Cardiac Risk Stratification with Electrocardiographic Indices - A Review on Computational Processing, Technology Transfer, and Scientific Evidence

    PubMed Central

    Gimeno-Blanes, Francisco J.; Blanco-Velasco, Manuel; Barquero-Pérez, Óscar; García-Alberola, Arcadi; Rojo-Álvarez, José L.

    2016-01-01

    Great effort has been devoted in recent years to the development of sudden cardiac risk predictors as a function of electric cardiac signals, mainly obtained from the electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis. But these prediction techniques are still seldom used in clinical practice, partly due to its limited diagnostic accuracy and to the lack of consensus about the appropriate computational signal processing implementation. This paper addresses a three-fold approach, based on ECG indices, to structure this review on sudden cardiac risk stratification. First, throughout the computational techniques that had been widely proposed for obtaining these indices in technical literature. Second, over the scientific evidence, that although is supported by observational clinical studies, they are not always representative enough. And third, via the limited technology transfer of academy-accepted algorithms, requiring further meditation for future systems. We focus on three families of ECG derived indices which are tackled from the aforementioned viewpoints, namely, heart rate turbulence (HRT), heart rate variability (HRV), and T-wave alternans. In terms of computational algorithms, we still need clearer scientific evidence, standardizing, and benchmarking, siting on advanced algorithms applied over large and representative datasets. New scenarios like electronic health recordings, big data, long-term monitoring, and cloud databases, will eventually open new frameworks to foresee suitable new paradigms in the near future. PMID:27014083

  16. Risk stratification of patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes by assessing global longitudinal strain.

    PubMed

    Hoshi, Hiromi; Takagi, Atsushi; Uematsu, Shoko; Ashihara, Kyomi; Hagiwara, Nobuhisa

    2014-05-01

    Noninvasive detection of left main/three-vessel diseases (LM/3VD) among patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTEACS) has been difficult using echocardiography. However, two-dimensional (2D) strain/strain-rate analysis is more sensitive in quantitatively assessing contractile abnormality. Accordingly, we aimed to clarify the usefulness of 2D strain/strain-rate analysis for risk stratification of NSTEACS. A total of 50 patients with NSTEACS underwent echocardiography and coronary angiography. We evaluated global longitudinal peak strain (global PS), peak systolic strain rate (global SSR), early diastolic global peak strain rate (global ESR), time from aortic valve closure to peak strain (TAVC-global PS), and global ESR (TAVC-global ESR) in apical four-, two-, and three-chamber views. Patients were divided into two groups according to coronary angiographic findings, the high-risk group (n = 15) with either of left main or three-vessel disease, and the low-risk group (n = 35). There were no significant differences in global SSR and global ESR between the two groups. The amplitude of global PS was significantly reduced in high-risk patients with LM/3VD in comparison with low-risk patients (-17.5 ± 2.4% vs -19.8 ± 2.7%, P = 0.007, respectively). TAVC-global PS and TAVC-global ESR were significantly prolonged in high-risk patients with LM/3VD in comparison with low-risk patients (15.3 ± 25.7 ms vs -36.8 ± 32.7 ms, P < 0.0001 and 162.8 ± 32.7 ms vs 135.7 ± 41.5 ms, P < 0.03, respectively). Receiver-operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that TAVC-global PS most strongly detected high-risk patients with sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 74.3% (area under the curve = 0.938, 95 % confidence interval 0.832-0.986, P = 0.0001). Temporal analysis of 2D strain appeared to be useful in detecting high-risk patients with LM/3VD among patients with NSTEACS.

  17. Non-Rhabdomyosarcoma Soft Tissue Sarcomas in Children: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Analysis Validating COG Risk Stratifications

    SciTech Connect

    Waxweiler, Timothy V.; Rusthoven, Chad G.; Proper, Michelle S.; Cost, Carrye R.; Cost, Nicholas G.; Donaldson, Nathan; Garrington, Timothy; Greffe, Brian S.; Heare, Travis; Macy, Margaret E.; Liu, Arthur K.

    2015-06-01

    Purpose: Non-rhabdomyosarcoma soft tissue sarcomas (NRSTS) are a heterogeneous group of sarcomas that encompass over 35 histologies. With an incidence of ∼500 cases per year in the United States in those <20 years of age, NRSTS are rare and therefore difficult to study in pediatric populations. We used the large Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to validate the prognostic ability of the Children's Oncology Group (COG) risk classification system and to define patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. Methods and Materials: From SEER data from 1988 to 2007, we identified patients ≤18 years of age with NRSTS. Data for age, sex, year of diagnosis, race, registry, histology, grade, primary size, primary site, stage, radiation therapy, and survival outcomes were analyzed. Patients with nonmetastatic grossly resected low-grade tumors of any size or high-grade tumors ≤5 cm were considered low risk. Cases of nonmetastatic tumors that were high grade, >5 cm, or unresectable were considered intermediate risk. Patients with nodal or distant metastases were considered high risk. Results: A total of 941 patients met the review criteria. On univariate analysis, black race, malignant peripheral nerve sheath (MPNST) histology, tumors >5 cm, nonextremity primary, lymph node involvement, radiation therapy, and higher risk group were associated with significantly worse overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). On multivariate analysis, MPNST histology, chemotherapy-resistant histology, and higher risk group were significantly poor prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Compared to low-risk patients, intermediate patients showed poorer OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 6.08, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.53-10.47, P<.001) and CSS (HR: 6.27; 95% CI: 3.44-11.43, P<.001), and high-risk patients had the worst OS (HR: 13.35, 95% CI: 8.18-21.76, P<.001) and CSS (HR: 14.65, 95% CI: 8.49-25.28, P<.001). Conclusions: The current COG risk group

  18. Targeted deep sequencing improves outcome stratification in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia with low risk cytogenetic features

    PubMed Central

    Palomo, Laura; Garcia, Olga; Arnan, Montse; Xicoy, Blanca; Fuster, Francisco; Cabezón, Marta; Coll, Rosa; Ademà, Vera; Grau, Javier; Jiménez, Maria-José; Pomares, Helena; Marcé, Sílvia; Mallo, Mar; Millá, Fuensanta; Alonso, Esther; Sureda, Anna; Gallardo, David; Feliu, Evarist; Ribera, Josep-Maria; Solé, Francesc; Zamora, Lurdes

    2016-01-01

    Clonal cytogenetic abnormalities are found in 20-30% of patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML), while gene mutations are present in >90% of cases. Patients with low risk cytogenetic features account for 80% of CMML cases and often fall into the low risk categories of CMML prognostic scoring systems, but the outcome differs considerably among them. We performed targeted deep sequencing of 83 myeloid-related genes in 56 CMML patients with low risk cytogenetic features or uninformative conventional cytogenetics (CC) at diagnosis, with the aim to identify the genetic characteristics of patients with a more aggressive disease. Targeted sequencing was also performed in a subset of these patients at time of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) transformation. Overall, 98% of patients harbored at least one mutation. Mutations in cell signaling genes were acquired at time of AML progression. Mutations in ASXL1, EZH2 and NRAS correlated with higher risk features and shorter overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS). Patients with SRSF2 mutations associated with poorer OS, while absence of TET2 mutations (TET2wt) was predictive of shorter PFS. A decrease in OS and PFS was observed as the number of adverse risk gene mutations (ASXL1, EZH2, NRAS and SRSF2) increased. On multivariate analyses, CMML-specific scoring system (CPSS) and presence of adverse risk gene mutations remained significant for OS, while CPSS and TET2wt were predictive of PFS. These results confirm that mutation analysis can add prognostic value to patients with CMML and low risk cytogenetic features or uninformative CC. PMID:27486981

  19. Developing and evaluating an automated appendicitis risk stratification algorithm for pediatric patients in the emergency department

    PubMed Central

    Deleger, Louise; Brodzinski, Holly; Zhai, Haijun; Li, Qi; Lingren, Todd; Kirkendall, Eric S; Alessandrini, Evaline; Solti, Imre

    2013-01-01

    Objective To evaluate a proposed natural language processing (NLP) and machine-learning based automated method to risk stratify abdominal pain patients by analyzing the content of the electronic health record (EHR). Methods We analyzed the EHRs of a random sample of 2100 pediatric emergency department (ED) patients with abdominal pain, including all with a final diagnosis of appendicitis. We developed an automated system to extract relevant elements from ED physician notes and lab values and to automatically assign a risk category for acute appendicitis (high, equivocal, or low), based on the Pediatric Appendicitis Score. We evaluated the performance of the system against a manually created gold standard (chart reviews by ED physicians) for recall, specificity, and precision. Results The system achieved an average F-measure of 0.867 (0.869 recall and 0.863 precision) for risk classification, which was comparable to physician experts. Recall/precision were 0.897/0.952 in the low-risk category, 0.855/0.886 in the high-risk category, and 0.854/0.766 in the equivocal-risk category. The information that the system required as input to achieve high F-measure was available within the first 4 h of the ED visit. Conclusions Automated appendicitis risk categorization based on EHR content, including information from clinical notes, shows comparable performance to physician chart reviewers as measured by their inter-annotator agreement and represents a promising new approach for computerized decision support to promote application of evidence-based medicine at the point of care. PMID:24130231

  20. Performance of 2014 NICE defibrillator implantation guidelines in heart failure risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Cubbon, Richard M; Witte, Klaus K; Kearney, Lorraine C; Gierula, John; Byrom, Rowenna; Paton, Maria; Sengupta, Anshuman; Patel, Peysh A; MN Walker, Andrew; Cairns, David A; Rajwani, Adil; Hall, Alistair S; Sapsford, Robert J; Kearney, Mark T

    2016-01-01

    Objective Define the real-world performance of recently updated National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (TA314) on implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) use in people with chronic heart failure. Methods Multicentre prospective cohort study of 1026 patients with stable chronic heart failure, associated with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤45% recruited in cardiology outpatient departments of four UK hospitals. We assessed the capacity of TA314 to identify patients at increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) or appropriate ICD shock. Results The overall risk of SCD or appropriate ICD shock was 2.1 events per 100 patient-years (95% CI 1.7 to 2.6). Patients meeting TA314 ICD criteria (31.1%) were 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.6 to 3.9) more likely to suffer SCD or appropriate ICD shock; they were also 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 2.2) more likely to die from non-cardiovascular causes and 1.6-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 2.3) more likely to die from progressive heart failure. Patients with diabetes not meeting TA314 criteria experienced comparable absolute risk of SCD or appropriate ICD shock to patients without diabetes who met TA314 criteria. Patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy not meeting TA314 criteria experienced comparable absolute risk of SCD or appropriate ICD shock to patients with non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy who met TA314 criteria. Conclusions TA314 can identify patients with reduced LVEF who are at increased relative risk of sudden death. Clinicians should also consider clinical context and the absolute risk of SCD when advising patients about the potential risks and benefits of ICD therapy. PMID:26857212

  1. Usefulness of semiquantitative analysis of dipyridamole-thallium-201 redistribution for improving risk stratification before vascular surgery

    SciTech Connect

    Levinson, J.R.; Boucher, C.A.; Coley, C.M.; Guiney, T.E.; Strauss, H.W.; Eagle, K.A. )

    1990-08-15

    Preoperative dipyridamole-thallium-201 scanning is sensitive in identifying patients prone to ischemic cardiac complications after vascular surgery, but most patients with redistribution do not have an event after surgery. Therefore, its positive predictive value is limited. To determine which patients with thallium redistribution are at highest risk, dipyridamole-thallium-201 images were interpreted semiquantitatively. Sixty-two consecutive patients with redistribution on preoperative dipyridamole-thallium-201 planar imaging studies were identified. Each thallium scan was then analyzed independently by 2 observers for the number of myocardial segments out of 15, the number of thallium views out of 3 and the number of coronary artery territories with redistribution. Seventeen patients (27%) had postoperative ischemic events, including unstable angina pectoris, ischemic pulmonary edema, myocardial infarction and cardiac death. Thallium predictors of ischemic operative complications included thallium redistribution greater than or equal to 4 myocardial segments (p = 0.03), greater than or equal to 2 of the 3 planar views (p = 0.005) and greater than or equal to 2 coronary territories (p = 0.007). No patient with redistribution in only 1 view had an ischemic event (0 of 15). Thus, determining the extent of redistribution by dipyridamole-thallium-201 scanning improves risk stratification before vascular surgery. Patients with greater numbers of myocardial segments and greater numbers of coronary territories showing thallium-201 redistribution are at higher risk for ischemic cardiac complications. In contrast, when the extent of thallium redistribution is limited, there is a lower risk despite the presence of redistribution.

  2. Call for Standardized Definitions of Osteoarthritis and Risk Stratification for Clinical Trials and Clinical Use

    PubMed Central

    Kraus, Virginia Byers; Blanco, Francisco J.; Englund, Martin; Karsdal, Morten A.; Lohmander, L. Stefan

    2015-01-01

    Osteoarthritis is a heterogeneous disorder. The goals of this review are (1) To stimulate use of standardized nomenclature for osteoarthritis (OA) that could serve as building blocks for describing OA and defining OA phenotypes, in short to provide unifying disease concepts for a heterogeneous disorder; and (2) To stimulate establishment of ROAD (Risk of Osteoarthritis Development) and ROAP (Risk of Osteoarthritis Progression) tools analogous to the FRAX™ instrument for predicting risk of fracture in osteoporosis; and (3) To stimulate formulation of tools for identifying disease in its early preradiographic and/or molecular stages -- REDI (Reliable Early Disease Identification). Consensus around more sensitive and specific diagnostic criteria for OA could spur development of disease modifying therapies for this entity that has proved so recalcitrant to date. We fully acknowledge that as we move forward, we expect to develop more sophisticated definitions, terminology and tools. PMID:25865392

  3. Brugada syndrome and fitness to fly: risk stratification in two pilot applicants.

    PubMed

    Dobler, Diana; Huber, Samuel W; Maire, René

    2010-08-01

    Brugada syndrome is a condition associated with a characteristic ECG and sudden arrhythmic death. Due to this risk of sudden death, patients with Brugada syndrome are generally not considered fit to fly. In recent years we have gained new insight into this condition and Brugada syndrome patients can now be classified into different risk categories. This then raises the question of whether a subset of patients with the Brugada syndrome exists in whom the risk of sudden death is sufficiently low and is compatible with fitness to fly. We discuss this question with two case reports of persons with Brugada syndrome who applied for an airman medical certificate and we propose an algorithm to aid decision making in this situation.

  4. Diagnosis, risk stratification and management of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and smoldering multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    van de Donk, N W C J; Mutis, T; Poddighe, P J; Lokhorst, H M; Zweegman, S

    2016-05-01

    Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is one of the most common premalignant disorders. IgG and IgA MGUS are precursor conditions of multiple myeloma (MM), whereas light-chain MGUS is a precursor condition of light-chain MM. Smoldering MM (SMM) is a precursor condition with higher tumor burden and higher risk of progression to symptomatic MM compared to MGUS. Assessment of the risk of progression of patients with asymptomatic monoclonal gammopathies is based on various factors including clonal burden, as well as biological characteristics, such as cytogenetic abnormalities and light-chain production. Several models have been constructed that are useful in daily practice for predicting risk of progression of MGUS or SMM. Importantly, the plasma cell clone may occasionally be responsible for severe organ damage through the production of a M-protein which deposits in tissues or has autoantibody activity. These disorders are rare and often require therapy directed at eradication of the underlying clone. Importantly, recent studies have shown that asymptomatic patients with a bone marrow plasma cell percentage ≥60%, free light-chain ratio ≥100, or >1 focal lesion on MRI (myeloma-defining events) have a 80% risk of developing symptomatic MM within 2 years. These patients are now considered to have MM requiring therapy, similar to patients with symptomatic disease. In this review, we provide an overview of the new diagnostic criteria of the monoclonal gammopathies and discuss risk of progression to active MM. We also provide recommendations for the management of patients with MGUS and SMM including risk-adapted follow-up.

  5. A genetic approach to stratification of risk for age-related macular degeneration.

    PubMed

    Zanke, Brent; Hawken, Steven; Carter, Ronald; Chow, David

    2010-02-01

    The genetic determinants of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) are reviewed and a novel approach to risk determination based upon inherited genetic polymorphisms and smoking history is presented. Although AMD was long thought to have primarily an environmental etiology, genetic variation is now known to account for the majority of the disease risk, with variations in the genes of the complement pathways playing a prominent role. Independent and validated clinical studies have implicated the C3 gene and its regulator, complement factor H (1q31.1), complement component 2 (6q21.33), and complement factor B (6q21.33). Subtle variations in complement activity increase the risk of symptomatic macular inflammation with age. A second group of AMD-associated genetic markers may aggravate complement-mediated inflammation by permitting retinal oxidative damage. Variation within the chromosomal site (10q26) coding a mitochondrial-associated protein (age-related maculopathy susceptibility 2) and an independent variation within the mitochondrial genome itself (A4917G) suggest a contributing pathophysiological role of retinal oxidative stress. A genetic panel of disease-susceptibility markers and smoking history can identify a group of individuals with greater than 65% lifetime risk of AMD. The introduction of genetic marker testing into clinical practice may identify patients with early disease who may be aided by presymptomatic monitoring or inclusion into trials of newer prophylactic agents.

  6. miRNA Expression Profiling Enables Risk Stratification in Archived and Fresh Neuroblastoma Tumor Samples

    PubMed Central

    De Preter, Katleen; Mestdagh, Pieter; Vermeulen, Joëlle; Zeka, Fjoralba; Naranjo, Arlene; Bray, Isabella; Castel, Victoria; Chen, Caifu; Drozynska, Elzbieta; Eggert, Angelika; Hogarty, Michael D.; Iżycka-Swieszewska, Ewa; London, Wendy B.; Noguera, Rosa; Piqueras, Marta; Bryan, Kenneth; Schowe, Benjamin; van Sluis, Peter; Molenaar, Jan J.; Schramm, Alexander; Schulte, Johannes H.; Stallings, Raymond L.; Versteeg, Rogier; Laureys, Geneviève; Van Roy, Nadine; Speleman, Frank; Vandesompele, Jo

    2012-01-01

    Purpose More accurate assessment of prognosis is important to further improve the choice of risk-related therapy in neuroblastoma (NB) patients. In this study, we aimed to establish and validate a prognostic miRNA signature for children with NB and tested it in both fresh frozen and archived formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples. Experimental Design Four hundred-thirty human mature miRNAs were profiled in two patient subgroups with maximally divergent clinical courses. Univariate logistic regression analysis was used to select miRNAs correlating with NB patient survival. A 25-miRNA gene signature was built using 51 training samples, tested on 179 test samples, and validated on an independent set of 304 fresh frozen tumor samples and 75 archived FFPE samples. Results The 25-miRNA signature significantly discriminates the test patients with respect to progression-free and overall survival (P < 0.0001), both in the overall population and in the cohort of high-risk patients. Multivariate analysis indicates that the miRNA signature is an independent predictor of patient survival after controlling for current risk factors. The results were confirmed in an external validation set. In contrast to a previously published mRNA classifier, the 25-miRNA signature was found to be predictive for patient survival in a set of 75 FFPE neuroblastoma samples. Conclusions In this study, we present the largest NB miRNA expression study so far, including more than 500 NB patients. We established and validated a robust miRNA classifier, able to identify a cohort of high-risk NB patients at greater risk for adverse outcome using both fresh frozen and archived material. PMID:22031095

  7. Computational cardiology and risk stratification for sudden cardiac death: one of the grand challenges for cardiology in the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Hill, Adam P; Perry, Matthew D; Abi-Gerges, Najah; Couderc, Jean-Philippe; Fermini, Bernard; Hancox, Jules C; Knollmann, Bjorn C; Mirams, Gary R; Skinner, Jon; Zareba, Wojciech; Vandenberg, Jamie I

    2016-12-01

    Risk stratification in the context of sudden cardiac death has been acknowledged as one of the major challenges facing cardiology for the past four decades. In recent years, the advent of high performance computing has facilitated organ-level simulation of the heart, meaning we can now examine the causes, mechanisms and impact of cardiac dysfunction in silico. As a result, computational cardiology, largely driven by the Physiome project, now stands at the threshold of clinical utility in regards to risk stratification and treatment of patients at risk of sudden cardiac death. In this white paper, we outline a roadmap of what needs to be done to make this translational step, using the relatively well-developed case of acquired or drug-induced long QT syndrome as an exemplar case.

  8. Computational cardiology and risk stratification for sudden cardiac death: one of the grand challenges for cardiology in the 21st century

    PubMed Central

    Perry, Matthew D.; Abi‐Gerges, Najah; Couderc, Jean‐Philippe; Fermini, Bernard; Hancox, Jules C.; Knollmann, Bjorn C.; Mirams, Gary R.; Skinner, Jon; Zareba, Wojciech; Vandenberg, Jamie I.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Risk stratification in the context of sudden cardiac death has been acknowledged as one of the major challenges facing cardiology for the past four decades. In recent years, the advent of high performance computing has facilitated organ‐level simulation of the heart, meaning we can now examine the causes, mechanisms and impact of cardiac dysfunction in silico. As a result, computational cardiology, largely driven by the Physiome project, now stands at the threshold of clinical utility in regards to risk stratification and treatment of patients at risk of sudden cardiac death. In this white paper, we outline a roadmap of what needs to be done to make this translational step, using the relatively well‐developed case of acquired or drug‐induced long QT syndrome as an exemplar case. PMID:27060987

  9. Clinical utility of genetic signatures in selecting adjuvant treatment: Risk stratification for early vs. late recurrences.

    PubMed

    Hayes, Daniel F

    2015-11-01

    Adjuvant endocrine therapy (ET) reduces the odds of distant recurrence and mortality by nearly one-half in women with hormone receptor (HR) positive early stage breast cancer. While the risk of recurrence is lower for HR positive than negative patients during the first 5-7 years, HR positive patients suffer ongoing recurrences between 0.5 and 2% year over subsequent years. Extended adjuvant ET further reduces recurrence during this late phase of follow-up. ET is associated with post-menopausal side effects (hot flashes, sexual dysfunction, mood changes, and weight gain), and occasional major toxicities (thrombosis and endometrial cancer with tamoxifen; bone mineral loss and possibly heart disease with AIs) persist throughout therapy. Accurate and reliable estimates of the risk of recurrence after five years of ET for women with prior HR positive breast cancer would permit appropriate extended ET decisions. The risk of long-term relapse is related to lymph node status and size of tumor, but these are relatively crude. Several groups have investigated whether multi-parameter tumor biomarker tests might identify those patients whose risk of recurrence is so low that extended ET is not justified. These assays include IHC4, the 21-gene "OncotypeDX", the 12-gene "Endopredict," the PAM50, and the 2-gene "Breast Cancer Index (BCI)" assays. The clinical validity of all these tests for this use context have been established, with at least one paper for each that shows a statistically significant difference in risk of distant recurrence during the 5-10 years after the initial five years of adjuvant endocrine therapy. However, the stakes are high, and although each of these represents a "prospective retrospective" study, they require further validation in subsequent datasets before they should be considered to have "clinical utility" and are used to withhold potentially life-saving treatment. Perhaps more importantly, the clinical breast cancer community, and especially the

  10. Comparison of nonlinear methods symbolic dynamics, detrended fluctuation, and Poincaré plot analysis in risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Truebner, Sandra; Goernig, Matthias; Figulla, Hans Reiner; Schirdewan, Alexander

    2007-03-01

    Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) has an incidence of about 20/100 000 new cases per annum and accounts for nearly 10 000 deaths per year in the United States. Approximately 36% of patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) suffer from cardiac death within five years after diagnosis. Currently applied methods for an early risk prediction in DCM patients are rather insufficient. The objective of this study was to investigate the suitability of short-term nonlinear methods symbolic dynamics (STSD), detrended fluctuation (DFA), and Poincaré plot analysis (PPA) for risk stratification in these patients. From 91 DCM patients and 30 healthy subjects (REF), heart rate and blood pressure variability (HRV, BPV), STSD, DFA, and PPA were analyzed. Measures from BPV analysis, DFA, and PPA revealed highly significant differences (p<0.0011) discriminating REF and DCM. For risk stratification in DCM patients, four parameters from BPV analysis, STSD, and PPA revealed significant differences between low and high risk (maximum sensitivity: 90%, specificity: 90%). These results suggest that STSD and PPA are useful nonlinear methods for enhanced risk stratification in DCM patients.

  11. Pre-transplantation minimal residual disease with cytogenetic and molecular diagnostic features improves risk stratification in acute myeloid leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Oran, Betül; Jorgensen, Jeff L.; Marin, David; Wang, Sa; Ahmed, Sairah; Alousi, Amin M.; Andersson, Borje S.; Bashir, Qaiser; Bassett, Roland; Lyons, Genevieve; Chen, Julianne; Rezvani, Katy; Popat, Uday; Kebriaei, Partow; Patel, Keyur; Rondon, Gabriela; Shpall, Elizabeth J.; Champlin, Richard E.

    2017-01-01

    Our aim was to improve outcome prediction after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in acute myeloid leukemia by combining cytogenetic and molecular data at diagnosis with minimal residual disease assessment by multicolor flow-cytometry at transplantation. Patients with acute myeloid leukemia in first complete remission in whom minimal residual disease was assessed at transplantation were included and categorized according to the European LeukemiaNet classification. The primary outcome was 1-year relapse incidence after transplantation. Of 152 patients eligible, 48 had minimal residual disease at the time of their transplant. Minimal residual disease-positive patients were older, required more therapy to achieve first remission, were more likely to have incomplete recovery of blood counts and had more adverse risk features by cytogenetics. Relapse incidence at 1 year was higher in patients with minimal residual disease (32.6% versus 14.4%, P=0.002). Leukemia-free survival (43.6% versus 64%, P=0.007) and overall survival (48.8% versus 66.9%, P=0.008) rates were also inferior in patients with minimal residual disease. In multivariable analysis, minimal residual disease status at transplantation independently predicted 1-year relapse incidence, identifying a subgroup of intermediate-risk patients, according to the European LeukemiaNet classification, with a particularly poor outcome. Assessment of minimal residual disease at transplantation in combination with cytogenetic and molecular findings provides powerful independent prognostic information in acute myeloid leukemia, lending support to the incorporation of minimal residual disease detection to refine risk stratification and develop a more individualized approach during hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. PMID:27540139

  12. The influence of preoperative risk stratification on fast-tracking patients after pulmonary resection.

    PubMed

    Bryant, Ayesha S; Cerfolio, Robert J

    2008-02-01

    Fast-tracking protocols or postoperative care computerized algorithms have been shown to reduce hospital length of stay and reduce costs; however, not all patients can be fast-tracked. Certain patient characteristics may put patients at increased risk to fail fast-tracking. Additionally some patients have multiple risk factors that have an additive effect that puts them at an even increased risk to fail fast-tracking, and more importantly, to significant morbidity. It is a mistake to force these protocols on all patients because it can lead to increased complications, readmissions, and low patient and family satisfaction. By carefully analyzing surgical results via accurate prospective databases, the types of patients who fail fast-tracking and the reasons they fail can be identified. Once these characteristics are pinpointed, specific changes to the postoperative algorithm can be implemented, and these alterations can lead to improved outcomes. The authors have shown that by using pain pumps instead of epidurals in elderly patients we can improve outcomes and still fast-track octogenarians with minimal morbidity and high-patient satisfaction. We have also shown that the increased use of physical therapy and respiratory treatments (important parts of the care of all patients after pulmonary resection, but a limited resource in most hospitals) may also lead to improved surgical results for those who have low FEV1% and DLco%. Further studies are needed. Although fast-tracking protocols cannot be applied to all, the vast majority of patients who undergo elective pulmonary resection, even those at high risk, can undergo safe, efficient, and cost-saving care via preset postoperative algorithms. When the typical daily events are convened each morning and the planned date of discharge is frequently communicated with the patient and family before surgery and each day in the hospital, most patients can be safely fast-tracked with high satisfaction and outstanding results.

  13. Artificial Neural Networks and risk stratification models in Emergency Departments: The policy maker's perspective.

    PubMed

    Casagranda, Ivo; Costantino, Giorgio; Falavigna, Greta; Furlan, Raffaello; Ippoliti, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    The primary goal of Emergency Department (ED) physicians is to discriminate between individuals at low risk, who can be safely discharged, and patients at high risk, who require prompt hospitalization. The problem of correctly classifying patients is an issue involving not only clinical but also managerial aspects, since reducing the rate of admission of patients to EDs could dramatically cut costs. Nevertheless, a trade-off might arise due to the need to find a balance between economic interests and the health conditions of patients. This work considers patients in EDs after a syncope event and presents a comparative analysis between two models: a multivariate logistic regression model, as proposed by the scientific community to stratify the expected risk of severe outcomes in the short and long run, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), an innovative model. The analysis highlights differences in correct classification of severe outcomes at 10 days (98.30% vs. 94.07%) and 1 year (97.67% vs. 96.40%), pointing to the superiority of Neural Networks. According to the results, there is also a significant superiority of ANNs in terms of false negatives both at 10 days (3.70% vs. 5.93%) and at 1 year (2.33% vs. 10.07%). However, considering the false positives, the adoption of ANNs would cause an increase in hospital costs, highlighting the potential trade-off which policy makers might face.

  14. Usefulness of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio in Risk Stratification of Patients with Advanced Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Benites-Zapata, Vicente A.; Hernandez, Adrian V.; Nagarajan, Vijaiganesh; Cauthen, Clay A.; Starling, Randall C.; Tang, W. H. Wilson

    2014-01-01

    Elevated neutrophil-to-lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) has been associated with increased mortality in patients with acute heart failure (HF) as well as in neoplastic diseases. We investigated the association between NLR and mortality or cardiac transplantation in a retrospective cohort of 527 patients presented to the Cleveland Clinic for evaluation of advanced HF therapy options between 2007 and 2010. Patients were divided according to low, intermediate, and high tertiles of NLR, and were followed longitudinally for time to all-causes mortality or heart transplantation (primary outcome). The median NLR was 3.9 (IQR 2.5, 6.5). In univariate analysis, intermediate and highest tertiles of NLR had a higher risk than the lowest tertile for the primary outcome and all-causes mortality. Compared to the lowest tertile, there was no difference in the risk of heart transplantation for intermediate and high tertiles. In multivariate analysis, when compared to the lowest tertile, the intermediate and high NLR tertiles remained significantly associated with the primary outcome (HR=1.61 [95%CI 1.10 to 2.37] and HR=1.55 [95%CI 1.02 to 2.36], respectively), and all-causes mortality (HR=1.83 [95%CI 1.07 to 3.14] and HR=2.16 [95%CI 1.21 to 3.83], respectively). In conclusion, elevated NLR is associated with increased mortality or heart transplantation risk in patients with advanced HF. PMID:25456873

  15. Usefulness of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in risk stratification of patients with advanced heart failure.

    PubMed

    Benites-Zapata, Vicente A; Hernandez, Adrian V; Nagarajan, Vijaiganesh; Cauthen, Clay A; Starling, Randall C; Tang, W H Wilson

    2015-01-01

    Elevated neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been associated with increased mortality in patients with acute heart failure (HF) and neoplastic diseases. We investigated the association between NLR and mortality or cardiac transplantation in a retrospective cohort of 527 patients presented to the Cleveland Clinic for evaluation of advanced HF therapy options from 2007 to 2010. Patients were divided according to low, intermediate, and high tertiles of NLR and were followed longitudinally for time to all-cause mortality or heart transplantation (primary outcome). The median NLR was 3.9 (interquartile range 2.5 to 6.5). In univariate analysis, intermediate and highest tertiles of NLR had a higher risk than the lowest tertile for the primary outcome and all-causes mortality. Compared with the lowest tertile, there was no difference in the risk of heart transplantation for intermediate and high tertiles. In multivariate analysis, compared with the lowest tertile, the intermediate and high NLR tertiles remained significantly associated with the primary outcome (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10 to 2.37 and HR = 1.55, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.36, respectively) and all-cause mortality (HR = 1.83, 95% CI 1.07 to 3.14 and HR = 2.16, 95% CI 1.21 to 3.83, respectively). In conclusion, elevated NLR is associated with increased mortality or heart transplantation risk in patients with advanced HF.

  16. Advances in the translational genomics of neuroblastoma: From improving risk stratification and revealing novel biology to identifying actionable genomic alterations.

    PubMed

    Bosse, Kristopher R; Maris, John M

    2016-01-01

    Neuroblastoma is an embryonal malignancy that commonly affects young children and is remarkably heterogenous in its malignant potential. Recently, the genetic basis of neuroblastoma has come into focus and not only has catalyzed a more comprehensive understanding of neuroblastoma tumorigenesis but also has revealed novel oncogenic vulnerabilities that are being therapeutically leveraged. Neuroblastoma is a model pediatric solid tumor in its use of recurrent genomic alterations, such as high-level MYCN (v-myc avian myelocytomatosis viral oncogene neuroblastoma-derived homolog) amplification, for risk stratification. Given the relative paucity of recurrent, activating, somatic point mutations or gene fusions in primary neuroblastoma tumors studied at initial diagnosis, innovative treatment approaches beyond small molecules targeting mutated or dysregulated kinases will be required moving forward to achieve noticeable improvements in overall patient survival. However, the clonally acquired, oncogenic aberrations in relapsed neuroblastomas are currently being defined and may offer an opportunity to improve patient outcomes with molecularly targeted therapy directed toward aberrantly regulated pathways in relapsed disease. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge about neuroblastoma genetics and genomics, highlighting the improved prognostication and potential therapeutic opportunities that have arisen from recent advances in understanding germline predisposition, recurrent segmental chromosomal alterations, somatic point mutations and translocations, and clonal evolution in relapsed neuroblastoma.

  17. Risk stratification in multiple myeloma, part 2: the significance of genetic risk factors in the era of currently available therapies.

    PubMed

    Biran, Noa; Jagannath, Sundar; Chari, Ajai

    2013-01-01

    Multiple myeloma (MM) is a heterogeneous disease, and a variety of risk factors at the time of initial diagnosis can be used to stratify patients. In the first part of this 2-part series, we reviewed the currently identified prognostic factors, characterized by disease burden, host factors, tumor biology, and depth of response to therapy. However, these risk factors cannot be interpreted independently of therapies. Novel therapies have the potential to worsen or improve outcomes compared with conventional therapy in high-risk patients, or actually overcome the high-risk status, thereby resulting in reclassification as standard risk. For example, thalidomide (Thalomid, Celgene) is associated with worse outcomes in patients with high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities, such as deletion of chromosomes 13 and 17p, whereas proteasome inhibitors appear to overcome t(4;14). The second part of this series reviews the significance of various genetic risks in the era of novel therapies for MM.

  18. National Veterans Health Administration inpatient risk stratification models for hospital-acquired acute kidney injury

    PubMed Central

    Cronin, Robert M; VanHouten, Jacob P; Siew, Edward D; Eden, Svetlana K; Fihn, Stephan D; Nielson, Christopher D; Peterson, Josh F; Baker, Clifton R; Ikizler, T Alp; Speroff, Theodore

    2015-01-01

    Objective Hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (HA-AKI) is a potentially preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. Identifying high-risk patients prior to the onset of kidney injury is a key step towards AKI prevention. Materials and Methods A national retrospective cohort of 1,620,898 patient hospitalizations from 116 Veterans Affairs hospitals was assembled from electronic health record (EHR) data collected from 2003 to 2012. HA-AKI was defined at stage 1+, stage 2+, and dialysis. EHR-based predictors were identified through logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) regression, and random forests, and pair-wise comparisons between each were made. Calibration and discrimination metrics were calculated using 50 bootstrap iterations. In the final models, we report odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals, and importance rankings for predictor variables to evaluate their significance. Results The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the different model outcomes ranged from 0.746 to 0.758 in stage 1+, 0.714 to 0.720 in stage 2+, and 0.823 to 0.825 in dialysis. Logistic regression had the best AUC in stage 1+ and dialysis. Random forests had the best AUC in stage 2+ but the least favorable calibration plots. Multiple risk factors were significant in our models, including some nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, blood pressure medications, antibiotics, and intravenous fluids given during the first 48 h of admission. Conclusions This study demonstrated that, although all the models tested had good discrimination, performance characteristics varied between methods, and the random forests models did not calibrate as well as the lasso or logistic regression models. In addition, novel modifiable risk factors were explored and found to be significant. PMID:26104740

  19. Risk stratification in the hormonal treatment of patients with prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Uhlman, Matthew A; Moul, Judd W; Tang, Ping; Stackhouse, Danielle A; Sun, Leon

    2009-09-01

    Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most common type of cancer found in American men, other than skin cancer. The American Cancer Society estimates that there will be 186,320 new cases of prostate cancer in the United States in 2008. About 28,660 men will die of this disease this year and PCa remains the second-leading cause of cancer death in men. One in six men will get PCa during his lifetime and one in 35 will die of the disease. Today, more than 2 million men in the United States who have had PCa are still alive. The death rate for PCa continues to decline, chiefly due to early detection and treatment, and improved salvage therapy such as hormone therapy (HT). HT continues to be a mainstay for primary-recurrent PCa and locally-advanced PCa. However, HT is associated with many undesirable side effects including sexual dysfunction, osteoporosis and hot flashes, all of which can lead to decreased quality of life (QOL). These risks are seen in both long- and short-term HT regimens. Additionally, research in recent years has revealed trends related to clinico pathological variables and their predictive ability in HT outcomes. Awareness of the potential adverse effects, the risks associated with HT and the prognostic ability of clinical and pathological variables is important in determining optimal therapy for individual patients. A rigorous evaluation of the current scientific literature associated with HT was conducted with the goal of identifying the most favorable balance of benefits and risks associated with HT.

  20. Procedures for risk-stratification of lung cancer using buccal nanocytology.

    PubMed

    Subramanian, H; Viswanathan, P; Cherkezyan, L; Iyengar, R; Rozhok, S; Verleye, M; Derbas, J; Czarnecki, J; Roy, H K; Backman, V

    2016-09-01

    Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths in the U.S. with survival dramatically depending on stage at diagnosis. We had earlier reported that nanocytology of buccal cells can accurately risk-stratify smokers for the presence of early and late-stage lung cancer. To translate the technique into clinical practice, standardization of operating procedures is necessary to consistently yield precise and repeatable results. Here, we develop and validate simple, robust, and easily implementable procedures for specimen collection, processing, etc. in addition to a commercially-viable instrument prototype. Results of this work enable translation of the technology from academic lab to physicians' office.

  1. Procedures for risk-stratification of lung cancer using buccal nanocytology

    PubMed Central

    Subramanian, H.; Viswanathan, P.; Cherkezyan, L.; Iyengar, R.; Rozhok, S.; Verleye, M.; Derbas, J.; Czarnecki, J.; Roy, H. K.; Backman, V.

    2016-01-01

    Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths in the U.S. with survival dramatically depending on stage at diagnosis. We had earlier reported that nanocytology of buccal cells can accurately risk-stratify smokers for the presence of early and late-stage lung cancer. To translate the technique into clinical practice, standardization of operating procedures is necessary to consistently yield precise and repeatable results. Here, we develop and validate simple, robust, and easily implementable procedures for specimen collection, processing, etc. in addition to a commercially-viable instrument prototype. Results of this work enable translation of the technology from academic lab to physicians’ office. PMID:27699138

  2. Cutaneous T-cell lymphoma: 2016 update on diagnosis, risk-stratification, and management

    PubMed Central

    Wilcox, Ryan A.

    2015-01-01

    Disease overview Cutaneous T-cell lymphomas are a heterogenous group of T-cell lymphoproliferative disorders involving the skin, the majority of which may be classified as Mycosis Fungoides (MF) or Sézary Syndrome (SS). Diagnosis The diagnosis of MF or SS requires the integration of clinical and histopathologic data. Risk-adapted therapy TNMB (tumor, node, metastasis, blood) staging remains the most important prognostic factor in MF/SS and forms the basis for a “risk-adapted,” multi-disciplinary approach to treatment. For patients with disease limited to the skin, expectant management or skin-directed therapies is preferred, as both disease-specific and overall survival for these patients is favorable. In contrast, patients with advanced-stage disease with significant nodal, visceral or blood involvement are generally approached with biologic-response modifiers or histone deacetylase inhibitors prior to escalating therapy to include systemic, single-agent chemotherapy. In highly-selected patients, allogeneic stem-cell transplantation may be considered, as this may be curative in some patients. PMID:26607183

  3. Novel risk stratification of patients with neuroblastoma by genomic signature, which is independent of molecular signature.

    PubMed

    Tomioka, N; Oba, S; Ohira, M; Misra, A; Fridlyand, J; Ishii, S; Nakamura, Y; Isogai, E; Hirata, T; Yoshida, Y; Todo, S; Kaneko, Y; Albertson, D G; Pinkel, D; Feuerstein, B G; Nakagawara, A

    2008-01-17

    Human neuroblastoma remains enigmatic because it often shows spontaneous regression and aggressive growth. The prognosis of advanced stage of sporadic neuroblastomas is still poor. Here, we investigated whether genomic and molecular signatures could categorize new therapeutic risk groups in primary neuroblastomas. We conducted microarray-based comparative genomic hybridization (array-CGH) with a DNA chip carrying 2464 BAC clones to examine genomic aberrations of 236 neuroblastomas and used in-house cDNA microarrays for gene-expression profiling. Array-CGH demonstrated three major genomic groups of chromosomal aberrations: silent (GGS), partial gains and/or losses (GGP) and whole gains and/or losses (GGW), which well corresponded with the patterns of chromosome 17 abnormalities. They were further classified into subgroups with different outcomes. In 112 sporadic neuroblastomas, MYCN amplification was frequent in GGS (22%) and GGP (53%) and caused serious outcomes in patients. Sporadic tumors with a single copy of MYCN showed the 5-year cumulative survival rates of 89% in GGS, 53% in GGP and 85% in GGW. Molecular signatures also segregated patients into the favorable and unfavorable prognosis groups (P=0.001). Both univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that genomic and molecular signatures were mutually independent, powerful prognostic indicators. Thus, combined genomic and molecular signatures may categorize novel risk groups and confer new clues for allowing tailored or even individualized medicine to patients with neuroblastoma.

  4. Pulmonary embolism risk stratification by European Society of Cardiology is associated with recurrent venous thromboembolism: Findings from a long-term follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Shuai; Zhai, Zhenguo; Yang, Yuanhua; Zhu, Jianguo; Kuang, Tuguang; Xie, Wanmu; Yang, Suqiao; Liu, Fangfang; Gong, Juanni; Shen, Ying H; Wang, Chen

    2016-01-01

    Venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence carries significant mortality and morbidity. Accurate risk assessment and effective treatment for patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is important for VTE recurrence prevention. We examined the association of VTE recurrence with risk stratification and PE treatment. We enrolled 627 patients with a first episode of confirmed PE. Baseline clinical information was collected. PE severity was assessed by the European Society of Cardiology's (ESC) risk stratification, the simplified PE Severity Index (sPESI) and the Qanadli score of clot burden. Patients were followed for 1-5 years. The cumulative recurrent VTE and all-cause death were documented. The association between recurrent VTE and risk factors was analyzed. The cumulative incidences of recurrent VTE were 4.5%, 7.3%, and 13.9% at 1, 2, and 5 years of follow-up, respectively. The VTE recurrence was associated with higher (high- and intermediate-) risk stratification predicted by ESC model (HR 1.838, 95% CI 1.318-2.571, P<0.001), as well as with unprovoked PE (HR 2.809, 95% CI 1.650-4.781, P b 0.001) and varicose veins (HR 4.747, 95% CI 2.634-8.557, P<0.001). The recurrence was negatively associated with longer (≥6 months) anticoagulation (HR 0.473, 95% CI 0.285-0.787, P=0.004), especially in patients with higher risk (HR 0.394, 95% CI 0.211-0.736, P=0.003) and unprovoked PE (HR 0.248, 95% CI 0.122-0.504, P<0.001). ESC high-risk and intermediate-risk PE, unprovoked PE and varicose veins increase recurrence risk. Longer anticoagulation treatment reduces recurrence, especially in higher risk and unprovoked PE patients.

  5. Coronary CT and the Coronary Calcium Score, the Future of ED Risk Stratification?

    PubMed Central

    Fernandez-Friera, Leticia; Garcia-Alvarez, Ana; Guzman, Gabriela; Garcia, Mario J

    2012-01-01

    Accurate and efficient evaluation of acute chest pain remains clinically challenging because traditional diagnostic modalities have many limitations. Recent improvement in non-invasive imaging technologies could potentially improve both diagnostic efficiency and clinical outcomes of patients with acute chest pain while reducing unnecessary hospitalizations. However, there is still controversy regarding much of the evidence for these technologies. This article reviews the role of coronary artery calcium score and the coronary computed tomography in the assessment of individual coronary risk and their usefulness in the emergency department in facilitating appropriate disposition decisions. The evidence base and clinical applications for both techniques are also described, together with cost- effectiveness and radiation exposure considerations. PMID:22708911

  6. Radioiodine therapy for thyroid cancer in the era of risk stratification and alternative targeted therapies.

    PubMed

    Pryma, Daniel A; Mandel, Susan J

    2014-09-01

    Differentiated thyroid cancers are typically iodine-avid and can be effectively treated with radioiodine. In most patients, radioiodine treatment is done for ablation of residual tissue, and in these cases the focus should be on using the minimum effective dose. Adjuvant therapy can be done to reduce the risk of recurrence, but optimal patient selection and dose are unclear. Patients with advanced disease benefit most from treatment with the maximum-tolerated dose. Recent research has focused on better patient selection and reduced radioiodine doses for remnant ablation. There are emerging targeted therapeutic approaches in patients who are appropriately shown to have iodine-refractory disease, with 1 drug approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Numerous trials are ongoing to assess targeted therapeutics alone or in combination with radioiodine.

  7. Brugada syndrome: insights of ST elevation, arrhythmogenicity, and risk stratification from experimental observations.

    PubMed

    Morita, Hiroshi; Zipes, Douglas P; Wu, Jiashin

    2009-11-01

    Brugada syndrome (BrS), caused by ion channel abnormalities, is characterized by ST segment elevation and negative T waves in the right precordial electrocardiographic (ECG) leads recorded over the right ventricular outflow tract (RVOT). BrS is sensitive to body temperature and can lead to T-wave alternans (TWA), ventricular tachycardia, and sudden death. Recent studies in an isolated canine RVOT model of BrS demonstrated that reversal of the transmural gradient of repolarization caused the ECG characteristics and that major intraepicardial and transmural dispersion of action potentials (APs) initiated phase 2 reentry, premature ventricular activations, and tachyarrhythmias. Hypothermia enhanced the heterogeneity of the AP and promoted the origination of phase 2 reentry in the epicardium of the RVOT, but the prolonged AP duration frequently blocked reentry. Hyperthermia abbreviated the AP and facilitated the maintenance of reentry and tachyarrhythmias. Bradycardia promoted alternans in the phase 2 dome of the AP within the epicardium of the RVOT, resulting in TWA. The above phenomena were localized in the epicardium of the RVOT. Blockade of the transient outward current, I(to), reduced AP heterogeneity and prevented arrhythmias in the BrS model. In addition, epicardial activation delay led to fragmented QRS, a risk marker of prognosis in BrS. Body surface mapping in patients with BrS supported these experimental findings. In conclusion, the AP heterogeneity within the epicardium of the RVOT contributes to the ECG characteristics, temperature sensitivity, TWA, and arrhythmias in BrS, and body surface mapping and fragmented QRS can be effective predictors of risk in patients with BrS.

  8. Validation of a risk stratification tool for fall-related injury in a state-wide cohort

    PubMed Central

    McCoy, Thomas H; Castro, Victor M; Cagan, Andrew; Roberson, Ashlee M; Perlis, Roy H

    2017-01-01

    details. This translatable approach to stratification allows for identification of high-risk individuals in whom interventions are likely to be cost-effective. PMID:28167743

  9. Stage II/III rectal cancer with intermediate response to preoperative radiochemotherapy: Do we have indications for individual risk stratification?

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Response to preoperative radiochemotherapy (RCT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer is very heterogeneous. Pathologic complete response (pCR) is accompanied by a favorable outcome. However, most patients show incomplete response. The aim of this investigation was to find indications for risk stratification in the group of intermediate responders to RCT. Methods From a prospective database of 496 patients with rectal adenocarcinoma, 107 patients with stage II/III cancers and intermediate response to preoperative 5-FU based RCT (ypT2/3 and TRG 2/3), treated within the German Rectal Cancer Trials were studied. Surgical treatment comprised curative (R0) total mesorectal excision (TME) in all cases. In 95 patients available for statistical analyses, residual transmural infiltration of the mesorectal compartment, nodal involvement and histolologic tumor grading were investigated for their prognostic impact on disease-free (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Results Residual tumor transgression into the mesorectal compartment (ypT3) did not influence DFS and OS rates (p = 0.619, p = 0.602, respectively). Nodal involvement after preoperative RCT (ypN1/2) turned out to be a valid prognostic factor with decreased DFS and OS (p = 0.0463, p = 0.0236, respectively). Persistent tumor infiltration of the mesorectum (ypT3) and histologic tumor grading of residual tumor cell clusters were strongly correlated with lymph node metastases after neoadjuvant treatment (p < 0.001). Conclusions Advanced transmural tumor invasion after RCT does not affect prognosis when curative (R0) resection is achievable. Residual nodal status is the most important predictor of individual outcome in intermediate responders to preoperative RCT. Furthermore, ypT stage and tumor grading turn out to be additional auxiliary factors. Future clinical trials for risk-adapted adjuvant therapy should be based on a synopsis of clinicopathologic parameters. PMID:20388220

  10. Matrix metalloproteinases and risk stratification in patients undergoing surgical revascularisation for critical limb ischaemia.

    PubMed

    De Caridi, Giovanni; Massara, Mafalda; Spinelli, Francesco; David, Antonio; Gangemi, Sebastiano; Fugetto, Francesco; Grande, Raffaele; Butrico, Lucia; Stefanelli, Roberta; Colosimo, Manuela; de Franciscis, Stefano; Serra, Raffaele

    2016-08-01

    Critical limb ischaemia (CLI) is the most advanced form of peripheral artery disease (PAD) and it is often associated with foot gangrene, which may lead to major amputation of lower limbs, and also with a higher risk of death due to fatal cardiovascular events. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) seem to be involved in atherosclerosis, PAD and CLI. Aim of this study was to evaluate variations in MMP serum levels in patients affected by CLI, before and after lower limb surgical revascularisation through prosthetic or venous bypass. A total of 29 patients (7 females and 22 males, mean age 73·4 years, range 65-83 years) suffering from CLI and submitted to lower extremity bypass (LEB) in our Institution were recruited. Seven patients (group I) underwent LEB using synthetic polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) graft material and 22 patients (group II) underwent LEB using autogenous veins. Moreover, 30 healthy age-sex-matched subjects were also enrolled as controls (group III). We documented significantly higher serum MMPs levels (P < 0·01) in patients with CLI (groups I and II) with respect to control group (group III). Finally, five patients with CLI (17·2%) showed poor outcomes (major amputations or death), and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test showed very high levels of MMP-1 and MMP-8. MMP serum levels seem to be able to predict the clinical outcomes of patients with CLI.

  11. Reassessment of Ambulatory Blood Pressure Improves Renal Risk Stratification in Nondialysis Chronic Kidney Disease: Long-Term Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Minutolo, Roberto; Gabbai, Francis B; Chiodini, Paolo; Garofalo, Carlo; Stanzione, Giovanna; Liberti, Maria Elena; Pacilio, Mario; Borrelli, Silvio; Provenzano, Michele; Conte, Giuseppe; De Nicola, Luca

    2015-09-01

    In nondialysis chronic kidney disease, ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) performs better than clinic BP in predicting outcome, but whether repeated assessment of ABP further refines prognosis remains ill-defined. We recruited 182 consecutive hypertensive patients with nondialysis chronic kidney disease who underwent 2 ABPs 12 months apart to evaluate the enhancement in risk stratification provided by a second ABP obtained 1 year after baseline on the risk (hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval) of composite renal end point (death, chronic dialysis, and estimated glomerular filtration rate decline ≥40%). The difference in daytime and nighttime systolic BP between the 2 ABPs (daytime and nighttime bias) was added to a survival model including baseline ABP. Net reclassification improvement was also calculated. Age was 65.6±13.4 years; 36% had diabetes mellitus and 36% had previous cardiovascular event; estimated glomerular filtration rate was 42.2±19.6 mL/min per 1.73 m(2), and clinic BP was 145±18/80±11 mm Hg. Baseline ABP (daytime, 131±16/75±10 and nighttime, 122±18/66±10 mm Hg) and daytime/nighttime BP goals (58.2% and 43.4%) did not change at month 12. Besides baseline ABP values, bias for daytime and nighttime systolic BP linearly associated with renal outcome (1.12, 1.04-1.21 and 1.18, 1.08-1.29 for every 5-mm Hg increase, respectively). Classification of patients at risk improved when considering nighttime systolic level at second ABP (net reclassification improvement, 0.224; 95% confidence interval, 0.005-0.435). Patients with first and second ABPs above target showed greater renal risk (2.15, 1.29-3.59 and 1.71, 1.07-2.72, for daytime and nighttime, respectively). In nondialysis chronic kidney disease, reassessment of ABP at 1 year further refines renal prognosis; such reassessment should specifically be considered in patients with uncontrolled BP at baseline.

  12. Incorporating temporal EHR data in predictive models for risk stratification of renal function deterioration.

    PubMed

    Singh, Anima; Nadkarni, Girish; Gottesman, Omri; Ellis, Stephen B; Bottinger, Erwin P; Guttag, John V

    2015-02-01

    Predictive models built using temporal data in electronic health records (EHRs) can potentially play a major role in improving management of chronic diseases. However, these data present a multitude of technical challenges, including irregular sampling of data and varying length of available patient history. In this paper, we describe and evaluate three different approaches that use machine learning to build predictive models using temporal EHR data of a patient. The first approach is a commonly used non-temporal approach that aggregates values of the predictors in the patient's medical history. The other two approaches exploit the temporal dynamics of the data. The two temporal approaches vary in how they model temporal information and handle missing data. Using data from the EHR of Mount Sinai Medical Center, we learned and evaluated the models in the context of predicting loss of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), the most common assessment of kidney function. Our results show that incorporating temporal information in patient's medical history can lead to better prediction of loss of kidney function. They also demonstrate that exactly how this information is incorporated is important. In particular, our results demonstrate that the relative importance of different predictors varies over time, and that using multi-task learning to account for this is an appropriate way to robustly capture the temporal dynamics in EHR data. Using a case study, we also demonstrate how the multi-task learning based model can yield predictive models with better performance for identifying patients at high risk of short-term loss of kidney function.

  13. Risk Stratification of Patients with Peripheral Arterial Disease and Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Using Aortic Augmentation Index

    PubMed Central

    Beckmann, Marianne; Husmann, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Background Central augmentation index (cAIx) is an indicator for vascular stiffness. Obstructive and aneurysmatic vascular disease can affect pulse wave propagation and reflection, causing changes in central aortic pressures. Aim To assess and compare cAIx in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and / or abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). Methods cAIx was assessed by radial applanation tonometry (Sphygmocor) in a total of 184 patients at a tertiary referral centre. Patients were grouped as having PAD only, AAA only, or both AAA and PAD. Differences in cAIx measurements between the three patient groups were tested by non-parametric tests and stepwise multivariate linear regression analysis to investigate associations with obstructive or aneurysmatic patterns of vascular disease. Results In the study sample of 184 patients, 130 had PAD only, 20 had AAA only, and 34 patients had both AAA and PAD. Mean cAIx (%) was 30.5 ± 8.2 across all patients. It was significantly higher in females (35.2 ± 6.1, n = 55) than males (28.4 ± 8.2, n = 129), and significantly higher in patients over 80 years of age (34.4 ± 6.9, n = 22) than in those under 80 years (30.0 ± 8.2, n = 162). Intergroup comparison revealed a significant difference in cAIx between the three patient groups (AAA: 27.3 ± 9.5; PAD: 31.4 ± 7.8; AAA & PAD: 28.8 ± 8.5). cAIx was significantly lower in patients with AAA, higher in patients with both AAA and PAD, and highest in patients with PAD only (beta = 0.21, p = 0.006). Conclusion Non-invasive assessment of arterial stiffness in high-risk patients indicates that cAIx differs according to the pattern of vascular disease. Measurements revealed significantly higher cAIx values for patients with obstructive peripheral arterial disease than for patients with aneurysmatic disease. PMID:26452151

  14. Identifying inequities in maternal and child health through risk stratification to inform health systems strengthening in Northern Togo

    PubMed Central

    McCarthy, Katharine J.; Braganza, Sandra; Fiori, Kevin; Gbeleou, Christophe; Kpakpo, Vivien; Lopez, Andrew; Schechter, Jennifer; Singham Goodwin, Alicia; Jones, Heidi E.

    2017-01-01

    Objective In Togo, substantial progress in maternal and child health is needed to reach global development goals. To better inform clinic and community-based health services, this study identifies factors associated with maternal and child health care utilization in the Kara region of Northern Togo. Methods We conducted a population-representative household survey of four health clinic catchment areas of 1,075 women of reproductive age in 2015. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model individual and structural factors associated with utilization of four maternal and child health services. Key outcomes were: facility-based delivery, maternal postnatal health check by a health professional within the first six weeks of birth, childhood vaccination, and receipt of malaria medication for febrile children under age five within 72 hours of symptom onset. Results 83 percent of women who gave birth in the last 2 years delivered at a health facility. In adjusted models, the strongest predictor of facility delivery in the rural catchment areas was proximity to a health center, with women living under three kilometers having 3.7 (95% CI 1.7, 7.9) times the odds of a facility birth. Only 11 percent of women received a health check by a health provider at any time in the postnatal period. Postnatal health checks were less likely for women in the poorest households and for women who resided in rural areas. Children of polygamous mothers had half the odds of receiving malaria medication for fever within 72 hours of symptom onset, while children with increased household wealth status had increased odds of childhood vaccination and receiving treatment for malaria. Conclusion Our analysis highlights the importance of risk stratification analysis to inform the delivery and scope of maternal and child health programs needed to reach those with the least access to care. PMID:28301539

  15. Elevated liver fibrosis index FIB-4 is not reliable for HCC risk stratification in predominantly non-Asian CHB patients.

    PubMed

    Demir, Münevver; Grünewald, Friederike; Lang, Sonja; Schramm, Christoph; Bowe, Andrea; Mück, Vera; Kütting, Fabian; Goeser, Tobias; Steffen, Hans-Michael

    2016-09-01

    We aimed to validate the liver fibrosis index FIB-4 as a model for risk stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma development in predominantly non-Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B infection seen at a tertiary referral center in Germany.We retrospectively analyzed 373 adult patients with chronic hepatitis B infection. Patient demographics, hepatitis B markers, antiviral treatment, laboratory parameters, results from liver imaging and histology were recorded. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to their FIB-4 levels and their hazard ratios for developing hepatocellular carcinoma were analyzed adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, alcohol consumption, and antiviral medication.Median follow-up was 8.7 years (range 1-21.3 years), 93% of patients were of non-Asian origin, and 64% were male. Compared with patients with a low FIB-4 (<1.25) patients with FIB-4 ≥1.25 showed a hazard ratio for incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma of 3.03 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.24-7.41) and an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.75 (95% CI: 0.64-4.74). Notably, 68% of patients with liver cirrhosis and 68% of those who developed HCC during observation had a low FIB-4 (<1.25).We could not confirm that a FIB-4 value ≥1.25 is a reliable clinical indicator for incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in predominantly non-Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B. Further studies in geographically and ethnically diverse populations are needed to prove its utility as a predictive tool.

  16. Improving risk stratification of patients with childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia: Glutathione-S-Transferases polymorphisms are associated with increased risk of relapse.

    PubMed

    Leonardi, Daiana B; Abbate, Mercedes; Riccheri, María C; Nuñez, Myriam; Alfonso, Graciela; Gueron, Geraldine; De Siervi, Adriana; Vazquez, Elba; Cotignola, Javier

    2017-01-03

    The inclusion of genotype at Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) diagnosis as a genetic predictor of disease outcome is under constant study. However, results are inconclusive and seem to be population specific. We analyzed the predictive value of germline polymorphisms for childhood ALL relapse and survival. We retrospectively recruited 140 Argentine patients with de novo ALL. Genotypes were analyzed using PCR-RFLP (GSTP1 c.313A > G, MDR1 c.3435T > C, and MTHFR c.665C > T) and multiplex PCR (GSTT1 null, GSTM1 null). Patients with the GSTP1 c.313GG genotype had an increased risk for relapse in univariate (OR = 2.65, 95% CI = 1.03-6.82, p = 0.04) and multivariate (OR = 3.22, 95% CI = 1.17-8.83, p = 0.02) models. The combined genotype slightly increased risk for relapse in the univariate (OR = 2.82, 95% CI = 1.09-7.32, p = 0.03) and multivariate (OR = 2.98, 95% CI = 1.14-7.79, p = 0.03) models for patients with 2/3-risk-genotypes (GSTT1 null, GSTM1 null, GSTP1 c.313GG). The Recurrence-Free Survival (RFS) was shorter for GSTP1 c.313GG (p = 0.025) and 2/3-risk-genotypes (p = 0.021). GST polymorphisms increased the risk of relapse and RFS of patients with childhood ALL. The inclusion of these genetic markers in ALL treatment protocols might improve risk stratification and reduce the number of relapses and deaths.

  17. Improving risk stratification of patients with childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia: Glutathione-S-Transferases polymorphisms are associated with increased risk of relapse

    PubMed Central

    Riccheri, María C.; Nuñez, Myriam; Alfonso, Graciela; Gueron, Geraldine; De Siervi, Adriana; Vazquez, Elba; Cotignola, Javier

    2017-01-01

    The inclusion of genotype at Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) diagnosis as a genetic predictor of disease outcome is under constant study. However, results are inconclusive and seem to be population specific. We analyzed the predictive value of germline polymorphisms for childhood ALL relapse and survival. We retrospectively recruited 140 Argentine patients with de novo ALL. Genotypes were analyzed using PCR-RFLP (GSTP1 c.313A > G, MDR1 c.3435T > C, and MTHFR c.665C > T) and multiplex PCR (GSTT1 null, GSTM1 null). Patients with the GSTP1 c.313GG genotype had an increased risk for relapse in univariate (OR = 2.65, 95% CI = 1.03–6.82, p = 0.04) and multivariate (OR = 3.22, 95% CI = 1.17–8.83, p = 0.02) models. The combined genotype slightly increased risk for relapse in the univariate (OR = 2.82, 95% CI = 1.09–7.32, p = 0.03) and multivariate (OR = 2.98, 95% CI = 1.14–7.79, p = 0.03) models for patients with 2/3-risk-genotypes (GSTT1 null, GSTM1 null, GSTP1 c.313GG). The Recurrence-Free Survival (RFS) was shorter for GSTP1 c.313GG (p = 0.025) and 2/3-risk-genotypes (p = 0.021). GST polymorphisms increased the risk of relapse and RFS of patients with childhood ALL. The inclusion of these genetic markers in ALL treatment protocols might improve risk stratification and reduce the number of relapses and deaths. PMID:27058755

  18. Strategy of Water Resources Planning Under Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Z.; Ye, M.

    2007-12-01

    In water resources systems analysis, risk, caused by uncertainty, is an important issue to consider, whereas definition of risk and its measure is controversial (many definitions are available in different research fields). The problem of computing the degree of risk in water resources planning is very difficult, and has received more and more attentions from more hydrologists. This study discussed the necessity of risk analysis on decision-making associated with problems of managing regional water quantity. A new concept of risk function for regional water resource planning was introduced, and a theory of risk analysis of water resource systems was developed and implemented numerically. The developed methodology is general and can be used to tackle many kinds of decision-making problems. When loss (or benefit) volumes of an action set and probabilities of nature state of decision environments are given, non-inferior planning strategy or strategies can be derived by ordering the size of risk degrees calculated by the proposed risk function. This method was illustrated in a case study at the Huanghuaihai basin, China, one of the major food-producing areas in north China. In the last several decades, problems of water shortage and pollution are severe, and extreme weather conditions frequently occur. How to reasonably allocate the limited fresh water in the future under uncertainty is an urgent task. In this research, alternative strategies of water resource planning were investigated and risk of the strategies was assessed to facilitate the decision-making of Chinese government. The developed methodology selected the optimum choice of water resources planning strategies to avoid the risk of water shortage. This research has practicably provided support of decision-making of the Chinese central and local governments and organizations in their regional and national planning.

  19. [Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies].

    PubMed

    Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves

    2007-04-01

    This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.

  20. Usefulness of quantitative versus qualitative ST-segment depression for risk stratification of non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes in contemporary clinical practice.

    PubMed

    Yan, Raymond T; Yan, Andrew T; Granger, Christopher B; Lopez-Sendon, Jose; Brieger, David; Kennelly, Brian; Budaj, Andrzej; Steg, Ph Gabriel; Georgescu, Alina A; Hassan, Quamrul; Goodman, Shaun G

    2008-04-01

    This aim of this study was to assess the clinical utility of quantitative ST-segment depression (STD) for refining the risk stratification of non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes in the prospective, multinational Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE). Quantitative measurements of STD on admission electrocardiograms were evaluated independently by a core laboratory, and their predictive value for in-hospital and cumulative 6-month mortality was examined. Although more severe STD is a marker of increased short- and long-term mortality, it is also associated with higher risk clinical features and biomarkers. Thus, after adjustment for these clinically important predictors, quantitative STD does not provide incremental prognostic value beyond simple dichotomous evaluation for the presence of STD. Furthermore, adopting quantitative instead of the prognostically proven qualitative evaluation of STD does not improve risk discrimination afforded by the validated GRACE risk models. In conclusion, the findings do not support the quantification of STD in routine clinical practice beyond simple evaluation for the presence of STD as an integral part of comprehensive risk stratification using the GRACE risk score.

  1. Environmental Stratification Framework and Water-Quality Monitoring Design Strategy for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, Africa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedel, Michael J.

    2008-01-01

    Mauritania anticipates an increase in mining activities throughout the country and into the foreseeable future. Because mining-induced changes in the landscape are likely to affect their limited ground-water resources and sensitive aquatic ecosystems, a water-quality assessment program was designed for Mauritania that is based on a nationally consistent environmental stratification framework. The primary objectives of this program are to ensure that the environmental monitoring systems can quantify near real-time changes in surface-water chemistry at a local scale, and quantify intermediate- to long-term changes in groundwater and aquatic ecosystems over multiple scales.

  2. Market transition, educational disparities, and family strategies in rural China: new evidence on gender stratification and development.

    PubMed

    Hannum, Emily

    2005-05-01

    Two theoretical perspectives have dominated debates about the impact of development on gender stratification: modernization theory, which argues that gender inequalities decline with economic growth, and the "women in development" perspective, which argues that development may initially widen gender gaps. Analyzing cross-sectional surveys and time-series data from China, this article indicates the relevance of both perspectives: while girls' educational opportunities were clearly more responsive than boys' to better household economic circumstances, the era of market transition in the late 1970s and early 1980s failed to accelerate and, in fact, may have temporarily slowed progress toward gender equity.

  3. Risk Stratification using Human Papillomavirus Testing among Women with Equivocally Abnormal Cytology: Results from a State-wide Surveillance Program

    PubMed Central

    Gage, Julia C; Hunt, William C; Schiffman, Mark; Katki, Hormuzd A; Cheung, Li C; Cuzick, Jack; Myers, Orrin; Castle, Philip E; Wheeler, Cosette M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Clinical guidelines for cervical cancer screening have incorporated comparative risks of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer (CIN3+) for various screening outcomes to determine management. Few cohorts are large enough to distinguish CIN3+ risks among women with minor abnormalities vs. negative cytology because of low incidence. The New Mexico HPV Pap Registry offers a unique opportunity to evaluate cervical cancer screening in a diverse population across a broad-spectrum of health service delivery. Methods Kaplan-Meier and logistic-Weibull survival models were used to estimate cumulative risks of CIN3+ among women aged 21–64 who were screened in New Mexico between 2007–2011 with negative, equivocal or mildly abnormal cytology, i.e., atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US; with or without HPV triage), or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions. Results We identified 452,045 women meeting the selection criteria. The 3-year CIN3+ risks for women with negative, ASC-US and LSIL cytology were: 0.30%, 2.6%, and 5.2%, respectively. HPV triage of ASC-US stratified 3-year CIN3+ risks were 0.72% for HPV-negative and 7.7% for HPV-positive. Risks tended to decline after age 30 for all screening results. Conclusions In this state-wide population-based cohort, cytology and HPV triage of ASC-US stratified women’s CIN3+ risk into similar patterns observed previously, suggesting the validity of screening guidelines for diverse populations in the United States (U.S.). Absolute risk estimates should be compared across other large populations. Impact Strategies for HPV triage of ASC-US derived from clinical trials are upheld in large clinical practice settings and across diverse screening populations in the U.S.. PMID:26518316

  4. The Value of Elastic Modulus Index as a Novel Surrogate Marker for Cardiovascular Risk Stratification by Dimensional Speckle-Tracking Carotid Ultrasonography

    PubMed Central

    Yoon, Ji Hyun; Cho, In-Jeong; Sung, Ji Min; Lee, Jinyong; Ryoo, Hojin; Shim, Chi Young; Hong, Geu-Ru; Chung, Namsik

    2016-01-01

    Background Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) and the presence of carotid plaque have been used for risk stratification of cardiovascular disease (CVD). To date, however, the association between multi-directional functional properties of carotid artery and CVD has not been fully elucidated. We sought to explore the multi-directional mechanics of the carotid artery in relation to cardiovascular risk. Methods Four hundred one patients who underwent carotid ultrasound were enrolled between January 2010 and April 2013. A high risk of CVD was defined as more than 20% of 10-year risk based on the Framingham risk score. Using a speckle-tracking technique, the longitudinal and radial movements were analyzed in the B-mode images. Peak longitudinal and radial displacements, strain and strain rate were also measured. Beta stiffness and elastic modulus index were calculated from the radial measurements. Results Of the overall sample, 13% (52) of patients comprised the high-risk group. In multivariate logistic regression, CIMT and elastic modulus index were independently associated with a high-risk of CVD {odds ratio (OR): 1.810 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.249–2.622] and OR: 1.767 (95% CI: 1.177–2.652); p = 0.002, 0.006, respectively}. The combination of CIMT and elastic modulus index correlated with a high-risk of CVD more so than CIMT alone. Conclusion The elastic modulus index of the carotid artery might serve as a novel surrogate marker of high-risk CVD. Measurement of the multi-directional mechanics of the carotid artery using the speckle tracking technique has potential for providing further information over conventional B-mode ultrasound for stratification of CVD risk. PMID:27721952

  5. Electrocardiologic and related methods of non-invasive detection and risk stratification in myocardial ischemia: state of the art and perspectives

    PubMed Central

    Huebner, Thomas; Goernig, Matthias; Schuepbach, Michael; Sanz, Ernst; Pilgram, Roland; Seeck, Andrea; Voss, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    Background: Electrocardiographic methods still provide the bulk of cardiovascular diagnostics. Cardiac ischemia is associated with typical alterations in cardiac biosignals that have to be measured, analyzed by mathematical algorithms and allegorized for further clinical diagnostics. The fast growing fields of biomedical engineering and applied sciences are intensely focused on generating new approaches to cardiac biosignal analysis for diagnosis and risk stratification in myocardial ischemia. Objectives: To present and review the state of the art in and new approaches to electrocardiologic methods for non-invasive detection and risk stratification in coronary artery disease (CAD) and myocardial ischemia; secondarily, to explore the future perspectives of these methods. Methods: In follow-up to the Expert Discussion at the 2008 Workshop on "Biosignal Analysis" of the German Society of Biomedical Engineering in Potsdam, Germany, we comprehensively searched the pertinent literature and databases and compiled the results into this review. Then, we categorized the state-of-the-art methods and selected new approaches based on their applications in detection and risk stratification of myocardial ischemia. Finally, we compared the pros and cons of the methods and explored their future potentials for cardiology. Results: Resting ECG, particularly suited for detecting ST-elevation myocardial infarctions, and exercise ECG, for the diagnosis of stable CAD, are state-of-the-art methods. New exercise-free methods for detecting stable CAD include cardiogoniometry (CGM); methods for detecting acute coronary syndrome without ST elevation are Body Surface Potential Mapping, functional imaging and CGM. Heart rate variability and blood pressure variability analyses, microvolt T-wave alternans and signal-averaged ECG mainly serve in detecting and stratifying the risk for lethal arrythmias in patients with myocardial ischemia or previous myocardial infarctions. Telemedicine and ambient

  6. Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

    PubMed

    Jebari, Karim

    2015-06-01

    A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously.

  7. Post-operative stimulated thyroglobulin and neck ultrasound as personalized criteria for risk stratification and radioactive iodine selection in low- and intermediate-risk papillary thyroid cancer.

    PubMed

    Orlov, Steven; Salari, Farnaz; Kashat, Lawrence; Freeman, Jeremy L; Vescan, Allan; Witterick, Ian J; Walfish, Paul G

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the utility of a personalized risk stratification and radioactive iodine (RAI) selection protocol (PRSP) using post-operative stimulated thyroglobulin (Stim-Tg) and neck ultrasound in low- and intermediate-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients. Patients with PTC tumors ≥1 cm were prospectively followed after total thyroidectomy and selective therapeutic central compartment neck dissection. Low/intermediate risk was defined as PTC confined to the thyroid or central (level VI) lymph nodes. Stim-Tg and neck ultrasound were performed approximately 3 months after surgery and used to guide RAI selection. Patients with Stim-Tg < 1 µg/L did not receive RAI, while those with Stim-Tg >5 µg/L routinely did. Those with Stim-Tg 1-5 µg/L received RAI on the basis of several clinical risk factors. Patients were followed for >6 years with serial neck ultrasound and basal/stimulated thyroglobulin. Among the 129 patients, 84 (65 %) had undetectable Stim-Tg after initial surgery, 40 (31 %) had Stim-Tg of 1-5 µg/L, and 5 (4 %) had Stim-Tg >5 µg/L. RAI was administered to 8 (20 %) patients with Stim-Tg 1-5 µg/L and 5 (100 %) with Stim-Tg >5 µg/L. Using this approach, RAI therapy was avoided in 17/20 (85 %) patients with tumors >4 cm, in 72/81 (89 %) patients older than 45 years, and in 6/9 (67 %) patients with central lymph node involvement. To date, 116 (90 %) patients in this cohort have not received RAI therapy with no evidence of residual/recurrent disease, whereas among the 13 patients who received RAI, 1 (8 %) had pathologic residual/recurrence disease. Using the proposed PRSP, RAI can be avoided in the majority of low/intermediate-risk PTC patients. Moreover, traditional risk factors considered to favor RAI treatment were not always concordant with the PRSP and may lead to overtreatment.

  8. Molecular Changes During Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) Evolution and Identification of Novel Treatment Strategies Through Molecular Stratification.

    PubMed

    Karjalainen, E; Repasky, G A

    2016-01-01

    Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a hematopoietic malignancy characterized by impaired differentiation and uncontrollable proliferation of myeloid progenitor cells. Due to high relapse rates, overall survival for this rapidly progressing disease is poor. The significant challenge in AML treatment is disease heterogeneity stemming from variability in maturation state of leukemic cells of origin, genetic aberrations among patients, and existence of multiple disease clones within a single patient. Disease heterogeneity and the lack of biomarkers for drug sensitivity lie at the root of treatment failure as well as selective efficacy of AML chemotherapies and the emergence of drug resistance. Furthermore, standard-of-care treatment is aggressive, presenting significant tolerability concerns to the commonly advanced-age AML patient. In this review, we examine the concept and potential of molecular stratification, particularly with biologically relevant drug responses, in identifying low-toxicity precision therapeutic combinations and clinically relevant biomarkers for AML patient care as a way to overcome these challenges in AML treatment.

  9. Utility of Clinical Risk Stratification in the Selection of Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer Patients for Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    von Rundstedt, Friedrich-Carl; Mata, Douglas A; Kryvenko, Oleksandr N; Shah, Anup A; Jhun, Iny; Lerner, Seth P

    2017-01-27

    Introduction: Level I evidence supports the use of cisplatin-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for muscle-invasive bladder cancer prior to radical cystectomy (RC). On average, 30-40% of patients achieve a complete pathologic response (i.e., stage pT0) after receiving NAC. Some centers risk-stratify patients, suggesting that there may be a higher-risk population that would derive the most benefit from NAC. Recently, a risk-stratification model developed at M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) specified criteria for clinical staging and patient selection for NAC. We applied this model to our own RC patient cohort and evaluated our own experience with clinical risk stratification and the effect of NAC on post treatment risk categories. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the charts of consecutive patients who underwent RC at two institutions between 2004 and 2014 and noted whether or not they received NAC. We determined the clinical stage by reviewing the exam under anesthesia, transurethral resection biopsy (TURBT) pathology, and preoperative imaging. Patients with cT2-T4a node-negative disease were included. Those with sarcomatoid features or adenocarcinoma were excluded. Patients were classified as high risk if they had tumor-associated hydronephrosis, clinical stage≥T3b-T4a disease, variant histology (i.e., micropapillary or small cell), or lymphovascular invasion (LVI), as specified by the MDACC model. Variables were examined for associations with cancer-specific survival (CSS), overall survival (OS), and risk-category reclassification. Results: We identified 166 patients with a median follow-up time of 22.2 months. In all, 117 patients (70.5%) did not receive NAC, 68 (58.1%) of whom we classified as high risk. Among patients not receiving NAC, CSS and OS were significantly decreased in high-risk patients (log-rank test p = 0.01 for both comparisons). The estimated age-adjusted hazard ratios of high-risk classification for cancer-specific and overall

  10. Utility of Clinical Risk Stratification in the Selection of Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer Patients for Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy: A Retrospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    von Rundstedt, Friedrich-Carl; Mata, Douglas A.; Kryvenko, Oleksandr N.; Shah, Anup A.; Jhun, Iny; Lerner, Seth P.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Level I evidence supports the use of cisplatin-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for muscle-invasive bladder cancer prior to radical cystectomy (RC). On average, 30–40% of patients achieve a complete pathologic response (i.e., stage pT0) after receiving NAC. Some centers risk-stratify patients, suggesting that there may be a higher-risk population that would derive the most benefit from NAC. Recently, a risk-stratification model developed at M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) specified criteria for clinical staging and patient selection for NAC. We applied this model to our own RC patient cohort and evaluated our own experience with clinical risk stratification and the effect of NAC on post treatment risk categories. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the charts of consecutive patients who underwent RC at two institutions between 2004 and 2014 and noted whether or not they received NAC. We determined the clinical stage by reviewing the exam under anesthesia, transurethral resection biopsy (TURBT) pathology, and preoperative imaging. Patients with cT2-T4a node-negative disease were included. Those with sarcomatoid features or adenocarcinoma were excluded. Patients were classified as high risk if they had tumor-associated hydronephrosis, clinical stage≥T3b-T4a disease, variant histology (i.e., micropapillary or small cell), or lymphovascular invasion (LVI), as specified by the MDACC model. Variables were examined for associations with cancer-specific survival (CSS), overall survival (OS), and risk-category reclassification. Results: We identified 166 patients with a median follow-up time of 22.2 months. In all, 117 patients (70.5%) did not receive NAC, 68 (58.1%) of whom we classified as high risk. Among patients not receiving NAC, CSS and OS were significantly decreased in high-risk patients (log-rank test p = 0.01 for both comparisons). The estimated age-adjusted hazard ratios of high-risk classification for cancer-specific and overall

  11. Development and applications of the Veterans Health Administration's Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM) to improve opioid safety and prevent overdose and suicide.

    PubMed

    Oliva, Elizabeth M; Bowe, Thomas; Tavakoli, Sara; Martins, Susana; Lewis, Eleanor T; Paik, Meenah; Wiechers, Ilse; Henderson, Patricia; Harvey, Michael; Avoundjian, Tigran; Medhanie, Amanuel; Trafton, Jodie A

    2017-02-01

    Concerns about opioid-related adverse events, including overdose, prompted the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) to launch an Opioid Safety Initiative and Overdose Education and Naloxone Distribution program. To mitigate risks associated with opioid prescribing, a holistic approach that takes into consideration both risk factors (e.g., dose, substance use disorders) and risk mitigation interventions (e.g., urine drug screening, psychosocial treatment) is needed. This article describes the Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM), a tool developed in VHA that reflects this holistic approach and facilitates patient identification and monitoring. STORM prioritizes patients for review and intervention according to their modeled risk for overdose/suicide-related events and displays risk factors and risk mitigation interventions obtained from VHA electronic medical record (EMR)-data extracts. Patients' estimated risk is based on a predictive risk model developed using fiscal year 2010 (FY2010: 10/1/2009-9/30/2010) EMR-data extracts and mortality data among 1,135,601 VHA patients prescribed opioid analgesics to predict risk for an overdose/suicide-related event in FY2011 (2.1% experienced an event). Cross-validation was used to validate the model, with receiver operating characteristic curves for the training and test data sets performing well (>.80 area under the curve). The predictive risk model distinguished patients based on risk for overdose/suicide-related adverse events, allowing for identification of high-risk patients and enrichment of target populations of patients with greater safety concerns for proactive monitoring and application of risk mitigation interventions. Results suggest that clinical informatics can leverage EMR-extracted data to identify patients at-risk for overdose/suicide-related events and provide clinicians with actionable information to mitigate risk. (PsycINFO Database Record

  12. Knowledge management: an innovative risk management strategy.

    PubMed

    Zipperer, Lorri; Amori, Geri

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge management effectively lends itself to the enterprise risk process. The authors introduce the concept of knowledge management as a strategy to drive innovation and support risk management. They align this work with organizational efforts to improve patient safety and quality through the effective sharing of experience and lessons learned. The article closes with suggestions on how to develop a knowledge management initiative at an organization, who should be on the team, and how to sustain this effort and build the culture it requires to drive success.

  13. MRD-directed risk stratification treatment may improve outcomes of t(8;21) AML in the first complete remission: results from the AML05 multicenter trial.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Hong-Hu; Zhang, Xiao-Hui; Qin, Ya-Zhen; Liu, Dai-Hong; Jiang, Hao; Chen, Huan; Jiang, Qian; Xu, Lan-Ping; Lu, Jin; Han, Wei; Bao, Li; Wang, Yu; Chen, Yu-Hong; Wang, Jing-Zhi; Wang, Feng-Rong; Lai, Yue-Yun; Chai, Jun-Yue; Wang, Li-Ru; Liu, Yan-Rong; Liu, Kai-Yan; Jiang, Bin; Huang, Xiao-Jun

    2013-05-16

    We aimed to improve the outcome of t(8;21) acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in the first complete remission (CR1) by applying risk-directed therapy based on minimal residual disease (MRD) determined by RUNX1/RUNX1T1 transcript levels. Risk-directed therapy included recommending allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) for high-risk patients and chemotherapy/autologous-HSCT (auto-HSCT) for low-risk patients. Among 116 eligible patients, MRD status after the second consolidation rather than induction or first consolidation could discriminate high-risk relapse patients (P = .001). Allo-HSCT could reduce relapse and improve survival compared with chemotherapy for high-risk patients (cumulative incidence of relapse [CIR]: 22.1% vs 78.9%, P < .0001; disease-free survival [DFS]: 61.7% vs 19.6%, P = .001), whereas chemotherapy/auto-HSCT achieved a low relapse rate (5.3%) and high DFS (94.7%) for low-risk patients. Multivariate analysis revealed that MRD status and treatment choice were independent prognostic factors for relapse, DFS, and OS. We concluded that MRD status after the second consolidation may be the best timing for treatment choice. MRD-directed risk stratification treatment may improve the outcome of t(8;21) AML in CR1. This trial was registered at http://www.chictr.org as #ChiCTR-OCH-12002406.

  14. Clinical use of high mobility group box 1 and the receptor for advanced glycation end products in the prognosis and risk stratification of heart failure: a literature review.

    PubMed

    Marsh, Amanda M; Nguyen, Austin Huy; Parker, Taylor M; Agrawal, Devendra K

    2017-03-01

    Heart failure (HF) is a clinical syndrome that represents the end stage of heart disease and remains the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. As heart failure mortality rates remain elevated, additional biomarkers that facilitate early detection or risk stratification in HF is of particularly great interest. High mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) and receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE) cause the activation of intracellular signaling, gene expression, and production of inflammatory cytokines and have been linked to many inflammatory disease states such as diabetes mellitus and atherosclerosis. Few studies have investigated their role in the pathophysiology of HF and any significant correlation remains uncertain. Review of the available literature discussing HMGB1 and RAGE clinical values as independent prognostic variables in HF resulted in the inclusion of 11 studies, which enrolled a total of 2025 heart failure patients. Overall, the data suggests a statistically significant positive correlation between RAGE and HF, with increasing RAGE levels associated with increasing New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class of heart failure. HMGB1 correlations were not as extensively studied, but there is evidence that both HMGB1 and RAGE have a definite potential as biomarkers for the prognosis and risk stratification of HF patients.

  15. Risk Stratification For Axillary Lymph Node Metastases in Breast Cancer Patients: What Clinicopathological and Radiological Factors of Primary Breast Cancer Can Predict Preoperatively Axillary Lymph Node Metastases?

    PubMed

    Yun, Seong Jong; Sohn, Yu-Mee; Seo, Mirinae

    2017-03-01

    This study was to investigate clinicopathological features including immunohistochemical subtype and radiological factors of primary breast cancer to predict axillary lymph node metastasis (ALNM) and preoperative risk stratification.From June 2004 to May 2014, 369 breast cancer patients (mean age, 54.7 years; range, 29-82 years) who underwent surgical axillary node sampling were included. Two radiologists retrospectively reviewed clinicopathological features, initial mammography, and initial breast ultrasonography (US). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate associations between ALNM and variables. Odds ratio with 95% confidence interval and risk of ALNM were calculated.Among 369 patients, 117 (31.7%) had ALNM and 252 (68.3%) had no ALNM revealed surgically. On multivariate analysis, four factors showed positive association with ALNM: the presence of symptoms (P < 0.001), triple-negative breast cancer subtype (P = 0.001), mass size on US (>10 mm, P < 0.001), and Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System category on US (≥4c, P < 0.001). The significant risk of ALNM was particularly seen in patients with two or more factors (2, P = 0.013; 3, P < 0.001; 4, P < 0.001).The estimated risks of ALNM increased in patients with two, three, and four factors with odds ratios of 5.5, 14.3, and 60.0, respectively.The presence of symptoms, triple-negative breast cancer subtype, larger size mass on US (>10 mm), and higher Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System category on US (≥4c) were positively associated with ALNM. Radiologically, US findings are significant factors that can affect the decision making process regarding ALNM. Based on risk stratification, the possibility of ALNM can be better predicted if 2 or more associated factors existed preoperatively.

  16. Government Policy, Stratification and Urban Schools: A Commentary on the "Five-Year Strategy for Children and Learners"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Riddell, Richard

    2005-01-01

    The DfESs "Five-year strategy for children and learners" sets out the intentions of the Labour Government for its third term. Where necessary, its provisions will be subject to legislation in 2005. This article argues that the "Five-year strategy", like much education policy since 1997, ignores important reasons for inequality of educational…

  17. The TRIAGE-ProADM Score for an Early Risk Stratification of Medical Patients in the Emergency Department - Development Based on a Multi-National, Prospective, Observational Study

    PubMed Central

    Hausfater, Pierre; Amin, Devendra; Amin, Adina; Canavaggio, Pauline; Sauvin, Gabrielle; Bernard, Maguy; Conca, Antoinette; Haubitz, Sebastian; Struja, Tristan; Huber, Andreas; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

    2016-01-01

    Introduction The inflammatory biomarker pro-adrenomedullin (ProADM) provides additional prognostic information for the risk stratification of general medical emergency department (ED) patients. The aim of this analysis was to develop a triage algorithm for improved prognostication and later use in an interventional trial. Methods We used data from the multi-national, prospective, observational TRIAGE trial including consecutive medical ED patients from Switzerland, France and the United States. We investigated triage effects when adding ProADM at two established cut-offs to a five-level ED triage score with respect to adverse clinical outcome. Results Mortality in the 6586 ED patients showed a step-wise, 25-fold increase from 0.6% to 4.5% and 15.4%, respectively, at the two ProADM cut-offs (≤0.75nmol/L, >0.75–1.5nmol/L, >1.5nmol/L, p ANOVA <0.0001). Risk stratification by combining ProADM within cut-off groups and the triage score resulted in the identification of 1662 patients (25.2% of the population) at a very low risk of mortality (0.3%, n = 5) and 425 patients (6.5% of the population) at very high risk of mortality (19.3%, n = 82). Risk estimation by using ProADM and the triage score from a logistic regression model allowed for a more accurate risk estimation in the whole population with a classification of 3255 patients (49.4% of the population) in the low risk group (0.3% mortality, n = 9) and 1673 (25.4% of the population) in the high-risk group (15.1% mortality, n = 252). Conclusions Within this large international multicenter study, a combined triage score based on ProADM and established triage scores allowed a more accurate mortality risk discrimination. The TRIAGE-ProADM score improved identification of both patients at the highest risk of mortality who may benefit from early therapeutic interventions (rule in), and low risk patients where deferred treatment without negatively affecting outcome may be possible (rule out). PMID:28005916

  18. A Simple Risk Stratification Model for ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) from the Combination of Blood Examination Variables: Acute Myocardial Infarction-Kyoto Multi-Center Risk Study Group

    PubMed Central

    Nakamura, Takeshi; Yokota, Isao; Zen, Kan; Yamano, Tetsuhiro; Shiraishi, Hirokazu; Shiraishi, Jun; Sawada, Takahisa; Kohno, Yoshio; Kitamura, Makoto; Furukawa, Keizo; Matoba, Satoaki

    2016-01-01

    Background Many mortality risk scoring tools exist among patients with ST-elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI). A risk stratification model that evaluates STEMI prognosis more simply and rapidly is preferred in clinical practice. Methods and Findings We developed a simple stratification model for blood examination by using the STEMI data of AMI-Kyoto registry in the derivation set (n = 1,060) and assessed its utility for mortality prediction in the validation set (n = 521). We selected five variables that significantly worsen in-hospital mortality: white blood cell count, hemoglobin, C-reactive protein, creatinine, and blood sugar levels at >10,000/μL, <10 g/dL, >1.0 mg/dL, >1.0 mg/dL, and >200 mg/dL, respectively. In the derivation set, each of the five variables significantly worsened in-hospital mortality (p < 0.01). We developed the risk stratification model by combining laboratory variables that were scored based on each beta coefficient obtained using multivariate analysis and divided three laboratory groups. We also found a significant trend in the in-hospital mortality rate for three laboratory groups. Therefore, we assessed the utility of this model in the validation set. The prognostic discriminatory capacity of our laboratory stratification model was comparable to that of the full multivariable model (c-statistic: derivation set vs validation set, 0.81 vs 0.74). In addition, we divided all cases (n = 1,581) into three thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk index groups based on an In TIME II substudy; the cases were further subdivided based on this laboratory model. The high laboratory group had significantly high in-hospital mortality rate in each TIMI risk index group (trend of in-hospital mortality; p < 0.01). Conclusions This laboratory stratification model can predict in-hospital mortality of STEMI simply and rapidly and might be useful for predicting in-hospital mortality of STEMI by further subdividing the TIMI risk index. PMID

  19. Integrating social capacity into risk reduction strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneiderbauer, S.; Pedoth, L.; Zebisch, M.

    2012-04-01

    The reduction of risk to impacts from external stresses and shocks is an important task in communities worldwide at all government levels and independent of the development status. The importance of building social capacity as part of risk reduction strategies is increasingly recognized. However, there is space for improvement to incorporate related activities into a holistic risk governance approach. Starting point for such enhancements is to promote and improve assessments of what is called 'sensitivity' or 'adaptive capacity' in the climate change community and what is named 'vulnerability' or 'resilience' in the hazard risk community. Challenging issues that need to be tackled in this context are the integration of concepts and method as well as the fusion of data. Against this background we introduce a method to assess regional adaptive capacity to climate change focusing on mountain areas accounting for sector specific problems. By considering three levels of specificity as base for the selection of most appropriate indicators the study results have the potential to support decision making regarding most appropriate adaptation actions. Advantages and shortcomings of certain aspects of adaptive capacity assessment in general and of the proposed method in particular are presented.

  20. Clinical risk stratification in the emergency department predicts long-term cardiovascular outcomes in a population-based cohort presenting with acute chest pain: primary results of the Olmsted county chest pain study.

    PubMed

    Farkouh, Michael E; Aneja, Ashish; Reeder, Guy S; Smars, Peter A; Bansilal, Sameer; Lennon, Ryan J; Wiste, Heather J; Razzouk, Louai; Traverse, Kay; Holmes, David R; Mathew, Verghese

    2009-09-01

    The long-term cardiovascular outcomes of a population-based cohort presenting to the emergency department (ED) with chest pain and classified with a clinical risk stratification algorithm are not well documented. The Olmsted County Chest Pain Study is a community-based study that included all consecutive patients presenting with chest pain consistent with unstable angina presenting to all EDs in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Patients were classified according to the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research (AHCPR) criteria. Patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction and chest pain of noncardiac origin were excluded. Main outcome measures were major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) at 30 days and at a median follow-up of 7.3 years, and mortality through a median of 16.6 years.The 2271 patients were classified as follows: 436 (19.2%) as high risk, 1557 (68.6%) as intermediate risk, and 278 (12.2%) as low risk. Thirty-day MACCE occurred in 11.5% in the high-risk group, 6.2% in the intermediate-risk group, and 2.5% in the low-risk group (p < 0.001). At 7.3 years, significantly more MACCE were recorded in the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.91; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.33-2.75) and high-risk groups (HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.67-3.58). Intermediate- and high-risk patients demonstrated a 1.38-fold (95% CI, 0.95-2.01; p = 0.09) and a 1.68-fold (95% CI, 1.13-2.50; p = 0.011) higher mortality, respectively, compared to low-risk patients at 16.6 years. At 7.3 and at 16.6 years of follow-up, biomarkers were not incrementally predictive of cardiovascular risk.In conclusion, a widely applicable rapid clinical algorithm using AHCPR criteria can reliably predict long-term mortality and cardiovascular outcomes. This algorithm, when applied in the ED, affords an excellent opportunity to identify patients who might benefit from a more aggressive cardiovascular risk factor management strategy.

  1. NASA's Orbital Space Plane Risk Reduction Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dumbacher, Dan

    2003-01-01

    This paper documents the transformation of NASA s Space Launch Initiative (SLI) Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program under the revised Integrated Space Transportation Plan, announced November 2002. Outlining the technology development approach followed by the original SLI, this paper gives insight into the current risk-reduction strategy that will enable confident development of the Nation s first orbital space plane (OSP). The OSP will perform an astronaut and contingency cargo transportation function, with an early crew rescue capability, thus enabling increased crew size and enhanced science operations aboard the International Space Station. The OSP design chosen for full-scale development will take advantage of the latest innovations American industry has to offer. The OSP Program identifies critical technologies that must be advanced to field a safe, reliable, affordable space transportation system for U.S. access to the Station and low-Earth orbit. OSP flight demonstrators will test crew safety features, validate autonomous operations, and mature thermal protection systems. Additional enabling technologies may be identified during the OSP design process as part of an overall risk-management strategy. The OSP Program uses a comprehensive and evolutionary systems acquisition approach, while applying appropriate lessons learned.

  2. Cardiac Health Risk Stratification System (CHRiSS): a Bayesian-based decision support system for left ventricular assist device (LVAD) therapy.

    PubMed

    Loghmanpour, Natasha A; Druzdzel, Marek J; Antaki, James F

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the use of Bayesian Networks (BNs) for left ventricular assist device (LVAD) therapy; a treatment for end-stage heart failure that has been steadily growing in popularity over the past decade. Despite this growth, the number of LVAD implants performed annually remains a small fraction of the estimated population of patients who might benefit from this treatment. We believe that this demonstrates a need for an accurate stratification tool that can help identify LVAD candidates at the most appropriate point in the course of their disease. We derived BNs to predict mortality at five endpoints utilizing the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) database: containing over 12,000 total enrolled patients from 153 hospital sites, collected since 2006 to the present day, and consisting of approximately 230 pre-implant clinical variables. Synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was employed to address the uneven proportion of patients with negative outcomes and to improve the performance of the models. The resulting accuracy and area under the ROC curve (%) for predicted mortality were 30 day: 94.9 and 92.5; 90 day: 84.2 and 73.9; 6 month: 78.2 and 70.6; 1 year: 73.1 and 70.6; and 2 years: 71.4 and 70.8. To foster the translation of these models to clinical practice, they have been incorporated into a web-based application, the Cardiac Health Risk Stratification System (CHRiSS). As clinical experience with LVAD therapy continues to grow, and additional data is collected, we aim to continually update these BN models to improve their accuracy and maintain their relevance. Ongoing work also aims to extend the BN models to predict the risk of adverse events post-LVAD implant as additional factors for consideration in decision making.

  3. Cardiac Health Risk Stratification System (CHRiSS): A Bayesian-Based Decision Support System for Left Ventricular Assist Device (LVAD) Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Loghmanpour, Natasha A.; Druzdzel, Marek J.; Antaki, James F.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the use of Bayesian Networks (BNs) for left ventricular assist device (LVAD) therapy; a treatment for end-stage heart failure that has been steadily growing in popularity over the past decade. Despite this growth, the number of LVAD implants performed annually remains a small fraction of the estimated population of patients who might benefit from this treatment. We believe that this demonstrates a need for an accurate stratification tool that can help identify LVAD candidates at the most appropriate point in the course of their disease. We derived BNs to predict mortality at five endpoints utilizing the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) database: containing over 12,000 total enrolled patients from 153 hospital sites, collected since 2006 to the present day, and consisting of approximately 230 pre-implant clinical variables. Synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was employed to address the uneven proportion of patients with negative outcomes and to improve the performance of the models. The resulting accuracy and area under the ROC curve (%) for predicted mortality were 30 day: 94.9 and 92.5; 90 day: 84.2 and 73.9; 6 month: 78.2 and 70.6; 1 year: 73.1 and 70.6; and 2 years: 71.4 and 70.8. To foster the translation of these models to clinical practice, they have been incorporated into a web-based application, the Cardiac Health Risk Stratification System (CHRiSS). As clinical experience with LVAD therapy continues to grow, and additional data is collected, we aim to continually update these BN models to improve their accuracy and maintain their relevance. Ongoing work also aims to extend the BN models to predict the risk of adverse events post-LVAD implant as additional factors for consideration in decision making. PMID:25397576

  4. Risk-benefit stratification as a guide to lidocaine prophylaxis of primary ventricular fibrillation in acute myocardial infarction: an analytic review.

    PubMed Central

    Goldman, L.; Batsford, W. P.

    1979-01-01

    Early investigators suggested that ventricular fibrillation without heart failure in acute myocardial infarction was reliably preceded by warning arrhythmias, and that suppression of such arrhythmias with intravenous lidocaine could avoid the need for resuscitation. While the efficacy and safety of lidocaine have been substantiated, the reliability of warning arrhythmias as predictors for primary ventricular fibrillation has not. We present data showing that the risk of primary ventricular fibrillation is most dependent on the patient's age and the interval since the onset of his symptoms, rather than on the presence of warning arrhythmias. We have estimated that lidocaine prophylaxis would have to be given to about 12 patients in the highest risk group (patients under age 50 and within six hours of the onset of symptoms), compared to about 400 patients in the lowest risk group (patients above age 70 and more than 24 hours since the onset of symptoms), to prevent one episode of primary ventricular fibrillation in each group. We propose that these risk stratifications, as adapted to the conditions in specific hospitals, provide the most rational approach to lidocaine prophylaxis of primary ventricular fibrillation. PMID:392960

  5. Radon Risk Communication Strategies: A Regional Story.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Winnie

    2016-01-01

    Risk communication on the health effects of radon encounters many challenges and requires a variety of risk communication strategies and approaches. The concern over radon exposure and its health effects may vary according to people's level of knowledge and receptivity. Homeowners in radon-prone areas are usually more informed and have greater concern over those not living in radon-prone areas. The latter group is often found to be resistant to testing. In British Columbia as well as many other parts of the country, some homes have been lying outside of the radon-prone areas have radon levels above the Canadian guideline, which is the reason Health Canada recommends that all homes should be tested. Over the last five years, the Environment Health Program (EHP) of Health Canada in the British Columbia region has been using a variety of different approaches in their radon risk communications through social media, workshops, webinars, public forums, poster contests, radon distribution maps, public inquiries, tradeshows and conference events, and partnership with different jurisdictions and nongovernmental organizations. The valuable lessons learned from these approaches are discussed in this special report.

  6. Improving flood risk management through risk communication strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bodoque, Jose Maria; Diez Herrero, Andres; Amerigo, Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Olcina, Jorge; Cortes, Beatriz

    2016-04-01

    risk and a low level of awareness regarding the Civil Protection Plan. In the social context of the Iberian Peninsula, where climate change models indicate an increase in extreme weather events and, consequently, high exposure and vulnerability to flash floods, the implementation of appropriately designed communication strategies is critical to improve the resilience of urban areas in order to cope with this risk.

  7. The Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Threatened Limb Classification System: risk stratification based on wound, ischemia, and foot infection (WIfI).

    PubMed

    Mills, Joseph L; Conte, Michael S; Armstrong, David G; Pomposelli, Frank B; Schanzer, Andres; Sidawy, Anton N; Andros, George

    2014-01-01

    Critical limb ischemia, first defined in 1982, was intended to delineate a subgroup of patients with a threatened lower extremity primarily because of chronic ischemia. It was the intent of the original authors that patients with diabetes be excluded or analyzed separately. The Fontaine and Rutherford Systems have been used to classify risk of amputation and likelihood of benefit from revascularization by subcategorizing patients into two groups: ischemic rest pain and tissue loss. Due to demographic shifts over the last 40 years, especially a dramatic rise in the incidence of diabetes mellitus and rapidly expanding techniques of revascularization, it has become increasingly difficult to perform meaningful outcomes analysis for patients with threatened limbs using these existing classification systems. Particularly in patients with diabetes, limb threat is part of a broad disease spectrum. Perfusion is only one determinant of outcome; wound extent and the presence and severity of infection also greatly impact the threat to a limb. Therefore, the Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Guidelines Committee undertook the task of creating a new classification of the threatened lower extremity that reflects these important considerations. We term this new framework, the Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Threatened Limb Classification System. Risk stratification is based on three major factors that impact amputation risk and clinical management: Wound, Ischemia, and foot Infection (WIfI). The implementation of this classification system is intended to permit more meaningful analysis of outcomes for various forms of therapy in this challenging, but heterogeneous population.

  8. Probabilistic risk analysis of groundwater remediation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolster, D.; Barahona, M.; Dentz, M.; Fernandez-Garcia, D.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Trinchero, P.; Valhondo, C.; Tartakovsky, D. M.

    2009-06-01

    Heterogeneity of subsurface environments and insufficient site characterization are some of the reasons why decisions about groundwater exploitation and remediation have to be made under uncertainty. A typical decision maker chooses between several alternative remediation strategies by balancing their respective costs with the probability of their success or failure. We conduct a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to determine the likelihood of the success of a permeable reactive barrier, one of the leading approaches to groundwater remediation. While PRA is used extensively in many engineering fields, its applications in hydrogeology are scarce. This is because rigorous PRA requires one to quantify structural and parametric uncertainties inherent in predictions of subsurface flow and transport. We demonstrate how PRA can facilitate a comprehensive uncertainty quantification for complex subsurface phenomena by identifying key transport processes contributing to a barrier's failure, each of which is amenable to uncertainty analysis. Probability of failure of a remediation strategy is computed by combining independent and conditional probabilities of failure of each process. Individual probabilities can be evaluated either analytically or numerically or, barring both, can be inferred from expert opinion.

  9. Risk Stratification in Cervical Cancer Screening by Complete Screening History- Applying Bioinformatics to a General Screening Population.

    PubMed

    Baltzer, Nicholas; Sundström, Karin; Nygård, Jan F; Dillner, Joakim; Komorowski, Jan

    2017-04-06

    Women screened for cervical cancer in Sweden are currently treated under a one-size-fits-all programme, which has been successful in reducing the incidence of cervical cancer but does not use all of the participants' available medical information. This study aimed to use women's complete cervical screening histories to identify diagnostic patterns that may indicate an increased risk of developing cervical cancer. A nationwide case-control study was performed where cervical cancer screening data from 125,476 women with a maximum follow-up of 10 years were evaluated for patterns of SNOMED diagnoses. The cancer development risk was estimated for a number of different screening history patterns and expressed as Odds Ratios (OR), with a history of 4 benign cervical tests as reference, using logistic regression. The overall performance of the model was moderate (64% accuracy, 71% Area Under Curve (AUC)) with 61-62% of the study population showing no specific patterns associated with risk. However, predictions for high-risk groups as defined by screening history patterns were highly discriminatory with ORs ranging from 8 to 36. The model for computing risk performed consistently across different screening history lengths, and several patterns predicted cancer outcomes. The results show the presence of risk-increasing and risk-decreasing factors in the screening history. Thus it is feasible to identify subgroups based on their complete screening histories. Several high-risk subgroups identified might benefit from an increased screening density. Some low-risk subgroups identified could likely have a moderately reduced screening density without additional risk. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk assessment to guide cervical screening strategies in a large Chinese population.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Fang-Hui; Hu, Shang-Ying; Zhang, Qian; Zhang, Xun; Pan, Qin-Jing; Zhang, Wen-Hua; Gage, Julia C; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Castle, Philip E; Qiao, You-Lin; Katki, Hormuzd A; Schiffman, Mark

    2016-06-01

    Three different cervical screening methods [cytology, human papillomavirus(HPV) testing and visual inspection with acetic acid(VIA)] are being considered in China for the national cervical screening program. Comparing risks of CIN3 and cervical cancer (CIN3+) for different results can inform test choice and management guidelines. We evaluated the immediate risk of CIN3+ for different screening results generated from individual and combined tests. We compared tests using a novel statistic designed for this purpose called Mean Risk Stratification (MRS), in a pooled analysis of 17 cross sectional population-based studies of 30,371 Chinese women screened with all 3 methods and diagnosed by colposcopically-directed biopsies. The 3 tests combined powerfully distinguished CIN3+ risk; triple-negative screening conferred a risk of 0.01%, while HPV-positive HSIL+ that was VIA-positive yielded a risk of 57.8%. Among the three screening tests, HPV status most strongly stratified CIN3+ risk. Among HPV-positive women, cytology was the more useful second test. In HPV-negative women, the immediate risks of CIN3+ ranged from 0.01% (negative cytology), 0.00% (ASC-US), 1.1% (LSIL), to 6.6 (HSIL+). In HPV-positive women, the CIN3+ risks were 0.9% (negative cytology), 3.6% (ASC-US), 6.3% (LSIL) and 38.5% (HSIL+). VIA results did not meaningful stratify CIN3+ risk among HPV-negative women with negative or ASC-US cytology; however, positive VIA substantially elevated CIN3+ risk for all other, more positive combinations of HPV and cytology compared with a negative VIA. Because all 3 screening tests had independent value in defining risk of CIN3+, different combinations can be optimized as pragmatic strategies in different resource settings.

  11. The DecisionDx-UM Gene Expression Profile Test Provides Risk Stratification and Individualized Patient Care in Uveal Melanoma.

    PubMed

    Harbour, J William; Chen, Royce

    2013-04-09

    Uveal melanoma (UM) is the most common primary cancer of the eye and has a strong propensity for metastasis. Although there have been many recent improvements in the diagnosis and treatment of UM, and only 2-4% of patients present with detectable metastasis, up to half of patients are at risk for dying of metastatic disease. Clinicopathologic factors are not accurate enough for individualized patient care. Chromosomal alterations have been used for prognostic purposes, but the routine clinical use of these methods is limited by their susceptibility to sampling error resulting from tumor heterogeneity, limited clinical validation, lack of standardized testing platforms, and high technical failure rates. In contrast, the DecisionDx-UM gene expression profile test is a stand-alone platform which requires no other information for maximal prognostic accuracy and which circumvents many of the drawbacks of chromosomal methods through the use of a highly sensitive microfluidics, PCR-based platform that simultaneously measures the expression of 15 carefully selected genes from primary uveal melanoma samples obtained by fine needle biopsy. Low metastatic risk is reported as Class 1, and high metastatic risk as Class 2. The test allows patients to be stratified into risk categories such that high-risk patients can be offered intensive metastatic surveillance and adjuvant therapy while low-risk patients can be spared these interventions. This test is now used as part of the standard of care in many ocular oncology centers.

  12. The use of adenosine and adenosine triphosphate testing in the diagnosis, risk stratification and management of patients with syncope: current evidence and future perspectives.

    PubMed

    Fragakis, Nikolaos; Antoniadis, Antonios P; Saviano, Massimo; Vassilikos, Vassilios; Pappone, Carlo

    2015-03-15

    Syncope is a significant source of cardiovascular-related morbidity yet the etiology is frequently obscure and the identification of patients at highest risk is challenging. Adenosine (AD) and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) administrations have been suggested as potentially useful non-invasive tools in the diagnostic workup of patients with neurally-mediated or bradycardia-related syncope. It has been postulated that both compounds by modulating the autonomic innervation in the heart and exerting negative chronotropic and dromotropic effects in the conduction system, may unmask the mechanism of syncope. However, the clinical implications derived from the efficacy of both tests in the investigation of syncope remain unclear mainly due to inconclusive and occasionally contradictory results of published studies. This review article summarizes recent and past information in the use of ATP and AD in the investigation of syncope with emphasis on clinical trials. We present the current level of evidence for the use of these agents in clinical practice, identify areas where further research is warranted and highlight the future perspectives of these agents as complements to an accurate risk-stratification of patients with syncope.

  13. Risk communication strategy development using the aerospace systems engineering process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dawson, S.; Sklar, M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explains the goals and challenges of NASA's risk communication efforts and how the Aerospace Systems Engineering Process (ASEP) was used to map the risk communication strategy used at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to achieve these goals.

  14. Recent advances in the management of chronic stable angina I: Approach to the patient, diagnosis, pathophysiology, risk stratification, and gender disparities

    PubMed Central

    Kones, Richard

    2010-01-01

    The potential importance of both prevention and personal responsibility in controlling heart disease, the leading cause of death in the USA and elsewhere, has attracted renewed attention. Coronary artery disease is preventable, using relatively simple and inexpensive lifestyle changes. The inexorable rise in the prevalence of obesity, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension, often in the risk cluster known as the metabolic syndrome, drives the ever-increasing incidence of heart disease. Population-wide improvements in personal health habits appear to be a fundamental, evidence based public health measure, yet numerous barriers prevent implementation. A common symptom in patients with coronary artery disease, classical angina refers to the typical chest pressure or discomfort that results when myocardial oxygen demand rises and coronary blood flow is reduced by fixed, atherosclerotic, obstructive lesions. Different forms of angina and diagnosis, with a short description of the significance of pain and silent ischemia, are discussed in this review. The well accepted concept of myocardial oxygen imbalance in the genesis of angina is presented with new data about clinical pathology of stable angina and acute coronary syndromes. The roles of stress electrocardiography and stress myocardial perfusion scintigraphic imaging are reviewed, along with the information these tests provide about risk and prognosis. Finally, the current status of gender disparities in heart disease is summarized. Enhanced risk stratification and identification of patients in whom procedures will meaningfully change management is an ongoing quest. Current guidelines emphasize efficient triage of patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Many experts believe the predictive value of current decision protocols for coronary artery disease still needs improvement in order to optimize outcomes, yet avoid unnecessary coronary angiograms and radiation exposure. Coronary angiography remains the

  15. A Novel Risk Stratification to Predict Local-Regional Failures in Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder After Radical Cystectomy

    SciTech Connect

    Baumann, Brian C.; Guzzo, Thomas J.; He Jiwei; Keefe, Stephen M.; Tucker, Kai; Bekelman, Justin E.; Hwang, Wei-Ting; Vaughn, David J.; Malkowicz, S. Bruce; Christodouleas, John P.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Local-regional failures (LF) following radical cystectomy (RC) plus pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) with or without chemotherapy for invasive urothelial bladder carcinoma are more common than previously reported. Adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) could reduce LF but currently has no defined role because of previously reported morbidity. Modern techniques with improved normal tissue sparing have rekindled interest in RT. We assessed the risk of LF and determined those factors that predict recurrence to facilitate patient selection for future adjuvant RT trials. Methods and Materials: From 1990-2008, 442 patients with urothelial bladder carcinoma at University of Pennsylvania were prospectively followed after RC plus PLND with or without chemotherapy with routine pelvic computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). One hundred thirty (29%) patients received chemotherapy. LF was any pelvic failure detected before or within 3 months of distant failure. Competing risk analyses identified factors predicting increased LF risk. Results: On univariate analysis, pathologic stage {>=}pT3, <10 nodes removed, positive margins, positive nodes, hydronephrosis, lymphovascular invasion, and mixed histology significantly predicted LF; node density was marginally predictive, but use of chemotherapy, number of positive nodes, type of surgical diversion, age, gender, race, smoking history, and body mass index were not. On multivariate analysis, only stage {>=}pT3 and <10 nodes removed were significant independent LF predictors with hazard ratios of 3.17 and 2.37, respectively (P<.01). Analysis identified 3 patient subgroups with significantly different LF risks: low-risk ({<=}pT2), intermediate-risk ({>=}pT3 and {>=}10 nodes removed), and high-risk ({>=}pT3 and <10 nodes) with 5-year LF rates of 8%, 23%, and 42%, respectively (P<.01). Conclusions: This series using routine CT and MRI surveillance to detect LF confirms that such failures are relatively common

  16. A risk stratification algorithm using non-invasive respiratory volume monitoring to improve safety when using post-operative opioids in the PACU.

    PubMed

    Voscopoulos, Christopher; Theos, Kimberly; Tillmann Hein, H A; George, Edward

    2017-04-01

    Late detection of respiratory depression in non-intubated patients compromises patient safety. SpO2 is a lagging indicator of respiratory depression and EtCO2 has proven to be unreliable in non-intubated patients. A decline in minute ventilation (MV) is the earliest sign of respiratory depression. A non-invasive respiratory volume monitor (RVM) that provides accurate, continuous MV measurements enables clinicians to predict and quantify respiratory compromise. For this observational study, practitioners were blinded to the RVM measurements and pain management followed the usual routine. Patients were stratified by their MV on PACU admission and classified as "At-Risk" or "Not-At-Risk," with progression to "Low MV" status following opioids assessed for each category. The purpose was to determine if stratifying based on MV on PACU arrival could identify patients at higher risk for respiratory depression. Ability to identify in advance patients at higher risk for respiratory depression following standard opioid dosing would drive changes in pain management and improve patient care. RVM and opioid administration data from 150 PACU patients following elective joint-replacement surgery were collected in an observational study. "Predicted" MV (MVPRED) and "Percent Predicted" (MVMEASURED/MVPRED × 100 %) were calculated for each patient using standard formulas. Prior to opioid administration, patients were classified as either "Not-At-Risk" (MV ≥ 80 % MVPRED) or "At-Risk" (MV < 80 % MVPRED). "Low MV" was defined as MV < 40 % MVPRED. Post-operative apnea (POA) was defined as ≥5 ten-second apneas per hour of PACU stay. We compared the incidences of Low MV following a single opioid dose, POA, and Low MV at discharge for both groups. In the PACU, 74/150 patients received opioids. Within 15 min of opioid administration, 32 % (24/74) developed Low MV. The risk-stratification algorithm identified 22/24 patients (92 % sensitivity). Only 46 % of them had POA

  17. Use of three-dimensional transesophageal echocardiography to evaluate mitral valve morphology for risk stratification prior to mitral valvuloplasty.

    PubMed

    Francis, Loren; Finley, Alan; Hessami, Walead

    2017-02-01

    Mitral stenosis is often managed percutaneously with an interventional procedure such as balloon commissurotomy. Although this often results in an increased mitral valve area and improved clinical symptoms, this procedure is not benign and may have serious complications including the development of hemodynamically significant mitral valve regurgitation. Multiple scoring systems have been developed to attempt to risk stratify these patients prior to their procedure.

  18. Sexually Dimorphic Risk Mitigation Strategies in Rats

    PubMed Central

    Pellman, Blake A.; Schuessler, Bryan P.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The scientific understanding of fear and anxiety—in both normal and pathological forms—is presently limited by a predominance of studies that use male animals and Pavlovian fear conditioning-centered paradigms that restrict and assess specific behaviors (e.g., freezing) over brief sampling periods and overlook the broader contributions of the spatiotemporal context to an animal’s behavioral responses to threats. Here, we use a risky “closed economy” system, in which the need to acquire food and water and the need to avoid threats are simultaneously integrated into the lives of rats, to examine sex differences in mitigating threat risk while foraging. Rats lived for an extended period (∼2 months) in enlarged chambers that consisted of a safe, bedded nest and a risky foraging area where footshocks could be delivered unpredictably. We observed that male and female rats used different strategies for responding to the threat of footshock. Whereas male rats increased the size of meals consumed to reduce the overall time spent foraging, female rats sacrificed their metabolic needs in order to avoid shocks. Ovarian hormone fluctuations were shown to exert slight but reliable rhythmic effects on risky decision-making in gonadally intact female rats. However, this did not produce significant differences in approach–avoidance trade-offs between ovariectomized and intact female groups, suggesting that male–female sex differences are not due to the activational effects of gonadal hormones but, rather, are likely to be organized during early development. PMID:28197550

  19. Polymerase chain reaction-assisted papillomavirus detection in cervicovaginal smears: stratification by clinical risk and cytology reports.

    PubMed

    Kühler-Obbarius, C; Milde-Langosch, K; Helling-Giese, G; Salfelder, A; Peimann, C; Löning, T

    1994-01-01

    Seven hundred and twelve patients from cancer screening, pregnancy care, outpatient clinics for patients at risk for cervical dysplasia and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection were tested simultaneously for cytological aberrations and human papillomavirus (HPV). Classification of these cases, and of all cytology records throughout 1991 and 1992 was performed according to the "Münchner Nomenklatur" and the Bethesda classification. HPV-directed polymerase chain reaction analysis was carried out with general primers, patients at risk for cervical dysplasia were tested by subsequent hybridization with HPV 16 and 18 probes. Patients from cancer screening and pregnancy care showed similar HPV prevalences ranging between 19.4%-24.6%. In contrast, patients from dysplasia and HIV units were infected in 56.2%-62.3% and 75.0%-76.9% respectively in centre of disease control stage III-IV, HPV detection rates in patients from dysplasia and HIV units increased gradually from 40.1%-52.9% in non-suspicious smears to 80.8%-100% in atypical smears. High risk HPV 16 and 18 infections were detected in 64% of smears with cytological evidence of HPV infection (koilocytosis) to 84.2% in severe dysplasia. Following the Bethesda guidelines, 2.9%-14.7% of all smears initially reported as Pap 2 K (suggestive of HPV infection) would be qualified as risk lesions (low grade squamous intraepithelial lesions), although they tested HPV negative in more than a third of cases. Thus, when using the Bethesda system, HPV analysis is needed to prevent overclassification and overtreatment. The "Münchner Nomenklatur" avoids this dilemma by not mixing morphological statements on infection, atypia and cancer risk.

  20. Lake Layers: Stratification.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brothers, Chris; And Others

    This teacher guide and student workbook set contains two learning activities, designed for fifth through ninth grade students, that concentrate on lake stratification and water quality. In the activities students model the seasonal temperature changes that occur in temperate lakes and observe the resulting stratification of lake waters. Students…

  1. Risk communication, radiation, and radiological emergencies: strategies, tools, and techniques.

    PubMed

    Covello, Vincent T

    2011-11-01

    Risk communication is the two-way exchange of information about risks, including risks associated with radiation and radiological events. The risk communication literature contains a broad range of strategies for overcoming the psychological, sociological, and cultural factors that create public misperceptions and misunderstandings about risks. These strategies help radiation risk communicators overcome the challenges posed by three basic observations about people under stress: (1) people under stress typically want to know that you care before they care about what you know; (2) people under stress typically have difficulty hearing, understanding, and remembering information; (3) people under stress typically focus more on negative information than positive information.

  2. A MicroRNA Panel in Pancreatic Cyst Fluid for the Risk Stratification of Pancreatic Cysts in a Prospective Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Utomo, WK; Looijenga, LH; Bruno, MJ; Hansen, BE; Gillis, AJM; Biermann, K; Peppelenbosch, MP; Fuhler, GM; Braat, H

    2016-01-01

    A subset of pancreatic cystic neoplasms are regarded as precursor lesions of pancreatic cancer, but only a minority of all pancreatic cystic neoplasms will undergo malignant transformation. MicroRNAs are increasingly recognized as molecular targets in carcinogenesis. Previously, a 9-microRNA (miR) signature was suggested to discriminate between high risk and low risk pancreatic cystic neoplasm. In this study, we aimed to validate this 9-miR panel in a prospective cohort. Total miR was isolated from pancreatic cyst fluid and expression of miR18a, miR24, miR30a-3p, miR92a, miR99b, miR106b, miR142-3p, miR342-3p, and miR532-3p was analyzed by singleplex Taqman MicroRNA Assay. A total of 62 patient samples were analyzed. During follow-up, 24 (38.7%) patients underwent resection, of which 6 (9.7%) patients showed at least high grade dysplasia. A logistic regression model presented a “predicted risk” score which significantly differed between low and high risk cysts, either including all patients or only those with histological confirmation of diagnosis. Using a set cut-off of 50%, the sensitivity of the model for the total cohort was 10.0%, specificity 100.0%, positive predicted value 100.0%, negative predicted value 85.2%, and diagnostic accuracy of 85.5%. Thus, while observing a significant difference between low and high risk cysts, clinical implementation of this biomarker panel is as yet unlikely to be beneficial in the management of pancreatic cysts. PMID:28131248

  3. Risk Stratification by Self-Measured Home Blood Pressure across Categories of Conventional Blood Pressure: A Participant-Level Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Asayama, Kei; Thijs, Lutgarde; Brguljan-Hitij, Jana; Niiranen, Teemu J.; Hozawa, Atsushi; Boggia, José; Aparicio, Lucas S.; Hara, Azusa; Johansson, Jouni K.; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Tzourio, Christophe; Stergiou, George S.; Sandoya, Edgardo; Tsuji, Ichiro; Jula, Antti M.; Imai, Yutaka; Staessen, Jan A.

    2014-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Diseases Study 2010 reported that hypertension is worldwide the leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease, causing 9.4 million deaths annually. We examined to what extent self-measurement of home blood pressure (HBP) refines risk stratification across increasing categories of conventional blood pressure (CBP). Methods and Findings This meta-analysis included 5,008 individuals randomly recruited from five populations (56.6% women; mean age, 57.1 y). All were not treated with antihypertensive drugs. In multivariable analyses, hazard ratios (HRs) associated with 10-mm Hg increases in systolic HBP were computed across CBP categories, using the following systolic/diastolic CBP thresholds (in mm Hg): optimal, <120/<80; normal, 120–129/80–84; high-normal, 130–139/85–89; mild hypertension, 140–159/90–99; and severe hypertension, ≥160/≥100. Over 8.3 y, 522 participants died, and 414, 225, and 194 had cardiovascular, cardiac, and cerebrovascular events, respectively. In participants with optimal or normal CBP, HRs for a composite cardiovascular end point associated with a 10-mm Hg higher systolic HBP were 1.28 (1.01–1.62) and 1.22 (1.00–1.49), respectively. At high-normal CBP and in mild hypertension, the HRs were 1.24 (1.03–1.49) and 1.20 (1.06–1.37), respectively, for all cardiovascular events and 1.33 (1.07–1.65) and 1.30 (1.09–1.56), respectively, for stroke. In severe hypertension, the HRs were not significant (p≥0.20). Among people with optimal, normal, and high-normal CBP, 67 (5.0%), 187 (18.4%), and 315 (30.3%), respectively, had masked hypertension (HBP≥130 mm Hg systolic or ≥85 mm Hg diastolic). Compared to true optimal CBP, masked hypertension was associated with a 2.3-fold (1.5–3.5) higher cardiovascular risk. A limitation was few data from low- and middle-income countries. Conclusions HBP substantially refines risk stratification at CBP levels assumed to carry no or only mildly increased

  4. Mutant-specific BRAF and CD117 immunocytochemistry potentially facilitate risk stratification for papillary thyroid carcinoma in fine-needle aspiration biopsy specimens.

    PubMed

    Meng, Zhilan; Lu, Junliang; Wu, Huanwen; Zhao, Yu; Luo, Yufeng; Gao, Jie; Zhu, Qingli; Jiang, Yuxin; Li, Wenbo; Liang, Zhiyong

    2016-01-01

    The study aims to test whether combination of mutant-specific BRAF and CD117 immunocytochemical (ICC) staining stratifies probability for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) in thyroid fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) specimens. A consecutive cohort of cases diagnosed as atypia of undetermined significance (AUS) or suspicious for malignancy-suspicious for papillary thyroid carcinoma (SM-SPTC) from 30 December, 2011 to 23 October, 2014 in a single institute was enrolled. Forty cytologically benign and 50 cytologically diagnosed PTC within the same time span were also included. CD117 and mutant-specific BRAF (BRAF VE1) ICC staining was performed. Association of BRAF VE1 and CD117 expression with final diagnosis was analyzed. Both BRAF VE1 and CD117 showed good performance in distinguishing PTC from benign nodules. Combination of BRAF VE1 and CD117 stratified 180 cases into three categories: BRAF VE1 positive regardless of CD117 expression (ICC-malignant), BRAF VE1 negative plus low level of CD117 expression (ICC-intermediate), and BRAF VE1 negative plus high level of CD117 expression (ICC-benign), which was associated with 100, 75.6, and 0 % of malignancy. Combination of mutant-specific BRAF and CD117 ICC may potentially facilitate the PTC risk stratification in FNAB thyroid nodule specimens.

  5. EBV-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma of the elderly: 2016 update on diagnosis, risk-stratification, and management.

    PubMed

    Castillo, Jorge J; Beltran, Brady E; Miranda, Roberto N; Young, Ken H; Chavez, Julio C; Sotomayor, Eduardo M

    2016-05-01

    Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) of the elderly is a provisional entity included in the 2008 WHO classification of lymphoid neoplasms. It is a disease typically seen in the elderly and thought to be associated with chronic EBV infection and severe immunosuppression with a component of immunosenescence. Recent research, however, has suggested that EBV-positive DLBCL can be seen in younger, immunocompetent patients. The diagnosis of EBV-positive DLBCL of the elderly is made through a careful pathological evaluation. The differential diagnosis includes infectious mononucleosis (specifically in younger patients), lymphomatoid granulomatosis, Hodgkin lymphoma, and gray zone lymphoma, among others. Detection of EBV-encoded RNA (EBER) is considered standard for diagnosis; however, a clear cutoff for positivity has not been defined. The International Prognostic Index (IPI), and the Oyama score can be used for risk-stratification. The Oyama score includes age >70 years and presence of B symptoms. The expression of CD30 is emerging as a potential adverse, and targetable, prognostic factor. Patients with EBV-positive DLBCL should be staged and managed following similar guidelines than patients with EBV-negative DLBCL. It has been suggested, however, that EBV-positive patients have a worse prognosis than EBV-negative counterparts in the era of chemoimmunotherapy. There is an opportunity to study and develop targeted therapy in the management of patients with EBV-positive DLBCL.

  6. Distant Metastasis Risk Stratification for Patients Undergoing Curative Resection Followed by Adjuvant Chemoradiation for Extrahepatic Bile Duct Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Kyubo; Chie, Eui Kyu; Jang, Jin-Young; Kim, Sun Whe; Han, Sae-Won; Oh, Do-Youn; Im, Seock-Ah; Kim, Tae-You; Bang, Yung-Jue; Ha, Sung W.

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: To analyze the prognostic factors predicting distant metastasis in patients undergoing adjuvant chemoradiation for extrahepatic bile duct (EHBD) cancer. Methods and Materials: Between January 1995 and August 2006, 166 patients with EHBD cancer underwent resection with curative intent, followed by adjuvant chemoradiation. There were 120 males and 46 females, and median age was 61 years (range, 34-86). Postoperative radiotherapy was delivered to tumor bed and regional lymph nodes (median dose, 40 Gy; range, 34-56 Gy). A total of 157 patients also received fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy as a radiosensitizer, and fluoropyrimidine-based maintenance chemotherapy was administered to 127 patients. Median follow-up duration was 29 months. Results: The treatment failed for 97 patients, and the major pattern of failure was distant metastasis (76 patients, 78.4%). The 5-year distant metastasis-free survival rate was 49.4%. The most common site of distant failure was the liver (n = 36). On multivariate analysis, hilar tumor, tumor size {>=}2 cm, involved lymph node, and poorly differentiated tumor were associated with inferior distant metastasis-free survival (p = 0.0348, 0.0754, 0.0009, and 0.0078, respectively), whereas T stage was not (p = 0.8081). When patients were divided into four groups based on these risk factors, the 5-year distant metastasis-free survival rates for patients with 0, 1, 2, and 3 risk factors were 86.4%, 59.9%, 32.5%, and 0%, respectively (p < 0.0001). Conclusion: Despite maintenance chemotherapy, distant metastasis was the major pattern of failure in patients undergoing adjuvant chemoradiation for EHBD cancer after resection with curative intent. Intensified chemotherapy is warranted to improve the treatment outcome, especially in those with multiple risk factors.

  7. Techniques for Developing an Acquisition Strategy by Profiling Software Risks

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-08-01

    software risk on a program. The methods and techniques presented contribute to the work that focuses on developing an acquisition strategy from a...this method and the slider bar technique to develop a strategy , acquisition planners would perform the following steps: 1. Define the objectives of the...element and analyze the risks induced by the pro- gram’s strategy drivers The method uses a technique , slider bars, to support a more systematic

  8. Systematic Review of Metabolic Syndrome Biomarkers: A Panel for Early Detection, Management, and Risk Stratification in the West Virginian Population

    PubMed Central

    Srikanthan, Krithika; Feyh, Andrew; Visweshwar, Haresh; Shapiro, Joseph I.; Sodhi, Komal

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Metabolic syndrome represents a cluster of related metabolic abnormalities, including central obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, hyperglycemia, and insulin resistance, with central obesity and insulin resistance in particular recognized as causative factors. These metabolic derangements present significant risk factors for cardiovascular disease, which is commonly recognized as the primary clinical outcome, although other outcomes are possible. Metabolic syndrome is a progressive condition that encompasses a wide array of disorders with specific metabolic abnormalities presenting at different times. These abnormalities can be detected and monitored via serum biomarkers. This review will compile a list of promising biomarkers that are associated with metabolic syndrome and this panel can aid in early detection and management of metabolic syndrome in high risk populations, such as in West Virginia. Methods: A literature review was conducted using PubMed, Science Direct, and Google Scholar to search for markers related to metabolic syndrome. Biomarkers searched included adipokines (leptin, adiponectin), neuropeptides (ghrelin), pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α), anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-10), markers of antioxidant status (OxLDL, PON-1, uric acid), and prothrombic factors (PAI-1). Results: According to the literature, the concentrations of pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α), markers of pro-oxidant status (OxLDL, uric acid), and prothrombic factors (PAI-1) were elevated in metabolic syndrome. Additionally, leptin concentrations were found to be elevated in metabolic syndrome as well, likely due to leptin resistance. In contrast, concentrations of anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-10), ghrelin, adiponectin, and antioxidant factors (PON-1) were decreased in metabolic syndrome, and these decreases also correlated with specific disorders within the cluster. Conclusion: Based on the evidence presented within the literature, the

  9. The Burden of Hard Atherosclerotic Plaques Does Not Promote Endoleak Development After Endovascular Aortic Aneurysm Repair: A Risk Stratification

    SciTech Connect

    Petersen, Johannes Glodny, Bernhard

    2011-10-15

    Purpose: To objectify the influence of the atherosclerotic burden in the proximal landing zone on the development of endoleaks after endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) or thoracic endovascular aneurysm repair (TEVAR) using objective aortic calcium scoring (ACS). Materials and Methods: This retrospective observation study included 267 patients who received an aortic endograft between 1997 and 2010 and for whom preoperative computed tomography (CT) was available to perform ACS using the CT-based V600 method. The mean follow-up period was 2 {+-} 2.3 years. Results: Type I endoleaks persisted in 45 patients (16.9%), type II in 34 (12.7%), type III in 8 (3%), and type IV or V in 3 patients, respectively (1.1% each). ACS in patients with type I endoleaks was not increased: 0.029 {+-} 0.061 ml compared with 0.075 {+-} 0.1349 ml in the rest of the patients, (p > 0.05; Whitney-Mann U-Test). There were significantly better results for the indication 'traumatic aortic rupture' than for the other indications (p < 0.05). In multivariate logistic regression analyses, age was an independent risk factor for the development of type I endoleaks in the thoracic aorta (Wald 9.5; p = 0.002), whereas ACS score was an independent protective factor (Wald 6.9; p = 0.009). In the abdominal aorta, neither age nor ACS influenced the development of endoleaks. Conclusion: Contrary to previous assumptions, TEVAR and EVAR can be carried out without increasing the risk of an endoleak of any type, even if there is a high atherosclerotic 'hard-plaque' burden of the aorta. The results are significantly better for traumatic aortic.

  10. Concussion risk factors and strategies for prevention.

    PubMed

    Kerr, Hamish A

    2014-12-01

    Concussion in children is frequently related to participation in sports. It requires a traumatic event to occur that transmits acceleration to the brain. Some children may have intrinsic risk factors that place them at greater risk for this type of injury. Comorbidities such as attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, migraine headaches, and mood disorders may place athletes at increased risk of more severe injury. A previous concussion is probably the most important influence on risk for future injury. Extrinsic risk factors include coaching techniques, officiating, and choice of sport. Helmet choice does not diminish concussion risk, nor does the use of mouth guards. Education of athletes, coaches, parents, and physicians is very important in improving recognition of potential concussive injury and helping child athletes and their parents understand the risks involved in sport participation.

  11. Improved Clinical Risk Stratification in Patients with Long QT Syndrome? Novel Insights from Multi-Channel ECGs

    PubMed Central

    Samol, Alexander; Gönes, Mehmet; Zumhagen, Sven; Bruns, Hans-Jürgen; Paul, Matthias; Vahlhaus, Christian; Waltenberger, Johannes; Schulze-Bahr, Eric; Eckardt, Lars; Mönnig, Gerold

    2016-01-01

    Background We investigated whether multichannel ECG-recordings are useful to risk-stratify patients with congenital long-QT syndrome (LQTS) for risk of sudden cardiac death under optimized medical treatment. Methods In 34 LQTS-patients (11 male; age 31±13 years, QTc 478±51ms; LQT1 n = 8, LQT2 n = 15) we performed a standard 12-channel ECG and a 120-channel body surface potential mapping. The occurrence of clinical events (CE; syncope, torsade de pointes (TdP), sudden cardiac arrest (SCA)) was documented and correlated with different ECG-parameters in all lead positions. Results Seven patients developed TdP, four survived SCA and 12 experienced syncope. 12/34 had at least one CE. CE was associated with a longer QTc-interval (519±43ms vs. 458±42ms; p = 0.001), a lower T-wave integral (TWI) on the left upper chest (-1.2±74.4mV*ms vs. 63.0±29.7mV*ms; p = 0.001), a lower range of T-wave amplitude (TWA) in the region of chest lead V8 (0.10±0.08mV vs. 0.18±0.07mV; p = 0.008) and a longer T-peak-T-end time (TpTe) in lead V1 (98±23ms vs. 78±26ms; p = 0.04). Receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) analyses revealed a sensitivity of 96% and a specificity of 75% (area under curve (AUC) 0.89±0.06, p = 0.001) at a cut-off value of 26.8mV*ms for prediction of CE by TWI, a sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 83% at a cut-off value of 0.11mV (AUC 0.83±0.09, p = 0.002) for prediction of CE by TWA and a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 73% at a cut-off value of 87ms (AUC 0.80±0.07, p = 0.005) for prediction of CE by TpTe. Conclusions Occurrence of CE in LQTS-patients seems to be associated with a prolonged, low-amplitude T-wave. PMID:27379800

  12. A retrospective study of ultrasound and FNA cytology investigation of thyroid nodules: working towards combined risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zi Wei; Fox, Richard; Unadkat, Samit; Farrell, Roy

    2017-03-10

    The British Thyroid Association recommended in new guidelines on thyroid cancer treatment [Kwak et al. (Korean J Radiol 14:110-117, 2013)] that ultrasound grading of thyroid nodules should be incorporated into MDT management. A retrospective study was carried out to determine that the impact of US grading has had on MDT decision making in practice. The design used in the study is a retrospective review of case notes. The study was carried out in the hub hospital for thyroid cancer in the North west London Cancer network. We included consecutive patients referred to the regional thyroid multidisciplinary meeting between August 2014 and May 2015 for investigation of thyroid nodules. Data were collected on patient demographics, co-morbidity, thy grading, ultrasound grading, surgery, post-operative histology, and radioactive iodine treatment details. Accuracy of cytology and ultrasound in diagnosing malignancy was correlated to definitive histology. 99 patients with thyroid nodules were included in the study. 97% of patients had at least one fine needle aspiration and 75% had ultrasound grading. Thy3f (Bethesda IV) nodules were more likely to be carcinoma if associated with a U4 grade rather than U3 (67 vs 18%, p = 0.028). Ultrasound grading has recently been introduced to the standard practice in investigation of thyroid nodules. Further assessment of the accuracy of ultrasound grading in clinical practice may allow us to risk-stratify thy3a/thy3f (Bethesda III/IV) lesions and personalise treatment.

  13. Roadmap to risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) success

    PubMed Central

    Balian, John D.; Malhotra, Rachpal; Perentesis, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    Medical safety-related risk management is a rapidly evolving and increasingly important aspect of drug approval and market longevity. To effectively meet the challenges of this new era, we describe a risk management roadmap that proactively yet practically anticipates risk-management requirements, provides the foundation for enduring yet appropriately flexible risk-management practices, and leverages these techniques to efficiently and effectively utilize risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS)/risk minimization programs as market access enablers. This fully integrated risk-management paradigm creates exciting opportunities for newer tools, techniques, and approaches to more successfully optimize product development, approval, and commercialization, with patients as the ultimate beneficiaries. PMID:25083193

  14. Perceived Risk and Risk Reduction Strategies in Study Abroad Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Luethge, Denise J.

    2004-01-01

    The study abroad program (SAP) meets the criteria of a risky purchase, namely of being non-tangible, possessing hidden qualities, being expensive and cannot being able to be tested prior to purchase. In fact, SAPs may score highly on a number of risk components, especially financial risk (expensive), psychological risk (anxiety), physical risk…

  15. The Your Disease Risk Index for colorectal cancer is an inaccurate risk stratification tool for advanced colorectal neoplasia at screening colonoscopy.

    PubMed

    Schroy, Paul C; Coe, Alison M; Mylvaganam, Shamini R; Ahn, Lynne B; Lydotes, Maria A; Robinson, Patricia A; Davis, Julie T; Chen, Clara A; Ashba, Jacqueline; Atkinson, Michael L; Colditz, Graham A; Heeren, Timothy C

    2012-08-01

    Tailoring the use of screening colonoscopy based on the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) could optimize the cost-effectiveness of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Our goal was to assess the accuracy of the Your Disease Risk (YDR) CRC risk index for stratifying average risk patients into low- versus intermediate/high-risk categories for ACN. The YDR risk assessment tool was administered to 3,317 asymptomatic average risk patients 50 to 79 years of age just before their screening colonoscopy. Associations between YDR-derived relative risk (RR) scores and ACN prevalence were examined using logistic regression and χ(2) analyses. ACN was defined as a tubular adenoma ≥1 cm, tubulovillous or villous adenoma of any size, and the presence of high-grade dysplasia or cancer. The overall prevalence of ACN was 5.6%. Although YDR-derived RR scores were linearly associated with ACN after adjusting for age and gender (P = 0.033), the index was unable to discriminate "below average" from "above/average" risk patients [OR, 1.01; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75-1.37]. Considerable overlap in rates of ACN was also observed between the different YDR risk categories in our age- and gender-stratified analyses. The YDR index lacks accuracy for stratifying average risk patients into low- versus intermediate/high-risk categories for ACN.

  16. Hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma larger than 10 cm: preoperative risk stratification to prevent futile surgery

    PubMed Central

    Lim, Chetana; Compagnon, Philippe; Sebagh, Mylène; Salloum, Chady; Calderaro, Julien; Luciani, Alain; Pascal, Gérard; Laurent, Alexis; Levesque, Eric; Maggi, Umberto; Feray, Cyrille; Cherqui, Daniel; Castaing, Denis; Azoulay, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Appropriate patient selection is important to achieving good outcomes and obviating futile surgery in patients with huge (≥10 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to identify independent predictors of futile outcomes, defined as death within 3 months of surgery or within 1 year from early recurrence following hepatectomy for huge HCC. Methods The outcomes of 149 patients with huge HCCs who underwent resection during 1995–2012 were analysed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify preoperative independent predictors of futility. Results Independent predictors of 3-month mortality (18.1%) were: total bilirubin level <34 μmol/l [P = 0.0443; odds ratio (OR) 16.470]; platelet count of <150 000 cells/ml (P = 0.0098; OR 5.039), and the presence of portal vein tumour thrombosis (P = 0.0041; OR 5.138). The last of these was the sole independent predictor of 1-year recurrence-related mortality (17.2%). Rates of recurrence-related mortality at 3 months and 1 year were, respectively, 6.3% and 7.1% in patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A disease, 12.5% and 14% in patients with BCLC stage B disease, and 37.8% (P = 0.0002) and 75% (P = 0.0002) in patients with BCLC stage C disease. Conclusions According to the present data, among patients submitted to hepatectomy for huge HCC, those with a high bilirubin level, low platelet count and portal vein thrombosis are at higher risk for futile surgery. The presence of portal vein tumour thrombosis should be regarded as a relative contraindication to surgery. PMID:25980326

  17. Integration of copy number and transcriptomics provides risk stratification in prostate cancer: A discovery and validation cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Ross-Adams, H.; Lamb, A.D.; Dunning, M.J.; Halim, S.; Lindberg, J.; Massie, C.M.; Egevad, L.A.; Russell, R.; Ramos-Montoya, A.; Vowler, S.L.; Sharma, N.L.; Kay, J.; Whitaker, H.; Clark, J.; Hurst, R.; Gnanapragasam, V.J.; Shah, N.C.; Warren, A.Y.; Cooper, C.S.; Lynch, A.G.; Stark, R.; Mills, I.G.; Grönberg, H.; Neal, D.E.

    2015-01-01

    Background Understanding the heterogeneous genotypes and phenotypes of prostate cancer is fundamental to improving the way we treat this disease. As yet, there are no validated descriptions of prostate cancer subgroups derived from integrated genomics linked with clinical outcome. Methods In a study of 482 tumour, benign and germline samples from 259 men with primary prostate cancer, we used integrative analysis of copy number alterations (CNA) and array transcriptomics to identify genomic loci that affect expression levels of mRNA in an expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) approach, to stratify patients into subgroups that we then associated with future clinical behaviour, and compared with either CNA or transcriptomics alone. Findings We identified five separate patient subgroups with distinct genomic alterations and expression profiles based on 100 discriminating genes in our separate discovery and validation sets of 125 and 103 men. These subgroups were able to consistently predict biochemical relapse (p = 0.0017 and p = 0.016 respectively) and were further validated in a third cohort with long-term follow-up (p = 0.027). We show the relative contributions of gene expression and copy number data on phenotype, and demonstrate the improved power gained from integrative analyses. We confirm alterations in six genes previously associated with prostate cancer (MAP3K7, MELK, RCBTB2, ELAC2, TPD52, ZBTB4), and also identify 94 genes not previously linked to prostate cancer progression that would not have been detected using either transcript or copy number data alone. We confirm a number of previously published molecular changes associated with high risk disease, including MYC amplification, and NKX3-1, RB1 and PTEN deletions, as well as over-expression of PCA3 and AMACR, and loss of MSMB in tumour tissue. A subset of the 100 genes outperforms established clinical predictors of poor prognosis (PSA, Gleason score), as well as previously published gene

  18. Time-dependent propensity score and collider-stratification bias: an example of beta2-agonist use and the risk of coronary heart disease.

    PubMed

    Sanni Ali, M; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Pestman, Wiebe R; Belitser, Svetlana V; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, A; Klungel, Olaf H

    2013-04-01

    Stratification and conditioning on time-varying cofounders which are also intermediates can induce collider-stratification bias and adjust-away the (indirect) effect of exposure. Similar bias could be expected when one conditions on time-dependent PS. We explored collider-stratification and confounding bias due to conditioning or stratifying on time-dependent PS using a clinical example on the effect of inhaled short- and long-acting beta2-agonist use (SABA and LABA, respectively) on coronary heart disease (CHD). In an electronic general practice database we selected a cohort of patients with an indication for SABA and/or LABA use and ascertained potential confounders and SABA/LABA use per three month intervals. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using PS stratification as well as covariate adjustment and compared with those of Marginal Structural Models (MSMs) in both SABA and LABA use separately. In MSMs, censoring was accounted for by including inverse probability of censoring weights.The crude HR of CHD was 0.90 [95 % CI: 0.63, 1.28] and 1.55 [95 % CI: 1.06, 2.62] in SABA and LABA users respectively. When PS stratification, covariate adjustment using PS, and MSMs were used, the HRs were 1.09 [95 % CI: 0.74, 1.61], 1.07 [95 % CI: 0.72, 1.60], and 0.86 [95 % CI: 0.55, 1.34] for SABA, and 1.09 [95 % CI: 0.74, 1.62], 1.13 [95 % CI: 0.76, 1.67], 0.77 [95 % CI: 0.45, 1.33] for LABA, respectively. Results were similar for different PS methods, but higher than those of MSMs. When treatment and confounders vary during follow-up, conditioning or stratification on time-dependent PS could induce substantial collider-stratification or confounding bias; hence, other methods such as MSMs are recommended.

  19. Strategy Guideline. Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Berman, M.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.

    2012-12-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) Building America team is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

  20. Strategy Guideline: Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Berman, M.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.

    2012-12-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

  1. Usefulness of the QRS-T angle to improve long-term risk stratification of patients with acute myocardial infarction and depressed left ventricular ejection fraction.

    PubMed

    Raposeiras-Roubín, Sergio; Virgós-Lamela, Alejandro; Bouzas-Cruz, Noelia; López-López, Andrea; Castiñeira-Busto, María; Fernández-Garda, Rita; García-Castelo, Alberto; Rodríguez-Mañero, Moisés; García-Acuña, José María; Abu-Assi, Emad; González-Juanatey, José Ramón

    2014-04-15

    In light of the low cost, the widespread availability of the electrocardiogram, and the increasing economic burden of the health-related problems, we aimed to analyze the prognostic value of automatic frontal QRS-T angle to predict mortality in patients with left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). About 467 consecutive patients discharged with diagnosis of AMI and with LV ejection fraction ≤40% were followed during 3.9 years (2.1 to 5.9). From them, 217 patients (47.5%) died. The frontal QRS-T angle was higher in patients who died (116.6±52.8 vs 77.9±55.1, respectively, p<0.001). The QRS-T angle value of 90° was the most accurate to predict all-cause cardiac death. After multivariate analysis, frontal QRS-T angle remained as an excellent predictor of all-cause and cardiac deaths, increasing the mortality 6% per each 10°. For the global mortality, the hazard ratio for a QRS-T angle>90° was 2.180 (1.558 to 3.050), and for the combined end point of cardiac death and appropriate implantable cardioverter defribrillator therapy, it was 2.385 (1.570 to 3.623). This independent predictive value was maintained even after adjusting by bundle brunch block, ST-elevation AMI, and its localization. In conclusion, a wide automatic frontal QRS-T angle (>90°) is a good discriminator of long-term mortality in patients with LV systolic dysfunction after an AMI. The ability to easily measure it from a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram together with its prognostic value makes the frontal QRS-T angle an attractive tool to help clinicians to improve risk stratification of those patients.

  2. Natural history of definitive diverticular hemorrhage based upon stigmata of recent hemorrhage and colonoscopic Doppler blood flow monitoring for risk stratification and definitive hemostasis

    PubMed Central

    Jensen, Dennis M.; Ohning, Gordon V.; Kovacs, Thomas O.G.; Jutabha, Rome; Ghassemi, Kevin; Dulai, Gareth S.; Machicado, Gustavo A.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS Few prospective reports describe the short term natural history of colon diverticular hemorrhage based upon stigmata of recent hemorrhage and none include blood flow detection for risk stratification or as a guide to definitive hemostasis. Our purposes are to report the 30 day natural history of definitive diverticular hemorrhage based upon stigmata and to describe Doppler probe blood flow detection and as a guide to definitive hemostasis. METHODS Different cohorts of patients with severe diverticular bleeding and stigmata on urgent colonoscopy are reported. For 30 day natural history, patients were treated medically. If severe rebleeding occurred, they had surgical or angiographic treatment. Natural history with major stigmata (active bleeding, visible vessel, or adherent clot) and no stigmata or flat spots after washing away clots are reported. Doppler probe detection of arterial blood flow underneath stigmata before and after hemostasis is also reported in a recent cohort. RESULTS For natural history patients with major stigmata treated medically had 65.8% (25/38) rebleeding rates and 44.7% (17/38) had intervention for hemostasis. Patients with spots or clean bases had no rebleeding. Doppler probe detected arterial blood flow in 92% of major stigmata, none after hemostasis and no one rebled. CONCLUSIONS 1. Patients with major stigmata treated medically had high rates of rebleeding and intervention for hemostasis. 2. Patients with clean diverticula or only flat spots had no rebleeding. 3. High rates of arterial blood flow were detected under major stigmata with Doppler probe but with obliteration by hemostasis no rebleeding occurred. PMID:26227931

  3. Toward a Risk Management Defense Strategy

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-08-01

    bureaucratic version of the proverbial “ dog chasing its tail.” For every attempt at risk acceptance through more limited strategic objectives, a...resolved to the satisfaction of those who persistently recognize the yawning gap between what civil authorities might need in the event of an

  4. Phosphorus fertilization, soil stratification and potential water quality impacts

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Water quality experts have suggested that no-till induces phosphorus stratification, which may exacerbate soluble P runoff from agricultural fields, leading to eutrophication. The objectives of this study were to explore P fertilization strategies on P stratification and P runoff from a corn-soybea...

  5. Temporal trends in the use of invasive cardiac procedures for non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndromes according to initial risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Jedrzkiewicz, Sean; Goodman, Shaun G; Yan, Raymond T; Welsh, Robert C; Kornder, Jan; DeYoung, J Paul; Wong, Graham C; Rose, Barry; Grondin, François R; Gallo, Richard; Huang, Wei; Gore, Joel M; Yan, Andrew T

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Current guidelines support an early invasive strategy in the management of high-risk non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS). Although studies in the 1990s suggested that high-risk patients received less aggressive treatment, there are limited data on the contemporary management patterns of NSTE-ACS in Canada. OBJECTIVE: To examine the in-hospital use of coronary angiography and revascularization in relation to risk among less selected patients with NSTE-ACS. METHODS: Data from the prospective, multicentre Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (main GRACE and expanded GRACE2) were used. Between June 1999 and September 2007, 7131 patients from across Canada with a final diagnosis of NSTE-ACS were included the study. The study population was stratified into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, based on their calculated GRACE risk score (a validated predictor of in-hospital mortality) and according to time of enrollment. RESULTS: While rates of in-hospital death and reinfarction were significantly (P<0.001) greater in higher-risk patients, the in-hospital use of cardiac catheterization in low- (64.7%), intermediate- (60.3%) and high-risk (42.3%) patients showed an inverse relationship (P<0.001). This trend persisted despite the increase in the overall rates of cardiac catheterization over time (47.9% in 1999 to 2003 versus 51.6% in 2004 to 2005 versus 63.8% in 2006 to 2007; P<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, intermediate-risk (adjusted OR 0.80 [95% CI 0.70 to 0.92], P=0.002) and high-risk (adjusted OR 0.38 [95% CI 0.29 to 0.48], P<0.001) patients remained less likely to undergo in-hospital cardiac catheterization. CONCLUSION: Despite the temporal increase in the use of invasive cardiac procedures, they remain paradoxically targeted toward low-risk patients with NSTE-ACS in contemporary practice. This treatment-risk paradox needs to be further addressed to maximize the benefits of invasive therapies in Canada. PMID:19898699

  6. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  7. Migration and stratification

    PubMed Central

    Jasso, Guillermina

    2011-01-01

    Migration and stratification are increasingly intertwined. One day soon it will be impossible to understand one without the other. Both focus on life chances. Stratification is about differential life chances - who gets what and why - and migration is about improving life chances - getting more of the good things of life. To examine the interconnections of migration and stratification, we address a mix of old and new questions, carrying out analyses newly enabled by a unique new data set on recent legal immigrants to the United States (the New Immigrant Survey). We look at immigrant processing and lost documents, depression due to the visa process, presentation of self, the race-ethnic composition of an immigrant cohort (made possible by the data for the first time since 1961), black immigration from Africa and the Americas, skin-color diversity among couples formed by U.S. citizen sponsors and immigrant spouses, and English fluency among children age 8–12 and their immigrant parents. We find, inter alia, that children of previously illegal parents are especially more likely to be fluent in English, that native-born U.S. citizen women tend to marry darker, that immigrant applicants who go through the visa process while already in the United States are more likely to have their documents lost and to suffer visa depression, and that immigration, by introducing accomplished black immigrants from Africa (notably via the visa lottery), threatens to overturn racial and skin color associations with skill. Our analyses show the mutual embeddedness of migration and stratification in the unfolding of the immigrants' and their children's life chances and the impacts on the stratification structure of the United States. PMID:26321771

  8. [Mass gatherings - health risks and preventive strategies].

    PubMed

    Steffen, Robert

    2013-06-01

    Experience from mass gatherings - usually attended by at least 25'000 persons - shows that approximately one in a thousand participants will consult with an on-site medical emergency service. Communicable diseases usually play a minor role. Historically outbreaks of meningococcal disease were recorded after the hajj, but this has been well controlled in the past few years subsequent to vaccinations and other measures required by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia health authorities. Major stress of the regional public health system is associated with accidents and non-communicable diseases, the majority being trivial. Host and environmental risk factors can result in a dramatic increase in the rate of consultations: Age and pre-existing illness play a decisive role particularly in pilgrims, be that in Mecca or Lourdes. Emotional factors may influence behavior; aggressions can develop. Alcohol and drugs, also the duration of an event may play a decisive role. Extreme climatic conditions, both heat and cold, also exhaustion result in a dramatic increase of emergency consultations. Infrastructure must be adapted for the crowd size, particularly stampede associated disasters can be avoided. The World Health Organization and other interested expert groups have in the past few years formulated interdisciplinary programs for prevention.

  9. Cancer risk and preventive behavior: persuasion as an intervention strategy.

    PubMed

    Tonani, Marcela; Carvalho, Emilia Campos de

    2008-01-01

    The effectiveness of interventions for health promotion, protection, and early diagnosis may include the process of persuasion employed. This study aims to evaluate the risk level of developing cancer, considering the pertinent risk factors, and the presence of persuasion and characteristics in communication regarding cancer prevention and early detection. It is an observational study, conducted among 110 inhabitants of a neighborhood in Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo, Brazil. It was confirmed that there are high risks for colon/rectum, cervical, and endometrial cancer; and moderate risks for the above as well as lung and breast cancer. In terms of persuasion, it was observed that cancer information was spread but not sustained for long periods. Moreover, there was no reinforcement. In view of cancer risk and the identified preventive behaviors, persuasion is considered a useful strategy to reduce these risks, as well as to encourage and sustain preventive behaviors, since it indicates routes to be followed.

  10. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

    ScienceCinema

    None

    2016-07-12

    Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

  11. Land Use Adaptation Strategies Analysis in Landslide Risk Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Yu-Ching; Chang, Chin-Hsin; Chen, Ying-Tung

    2013-04-01

    In order to respond to the impact of climate and environmental change on Taiwanese mountain region, this study used GTZ (2004) Risk analysis guidelines to assess the landslide risk for 178 Taiwanese mountain towns. This study used 7 indicators to assess landslide risk, which are rainfall distribution, natural environment vulnerability (e.g., rainfall threshold criterion for debris flow, historical disaster frequency, landslide ratio, and road density), physicality vulnerability (e.g., population density) and socio-economic vulnerability (e.g., population with higher education, death rate and income). The landslide risk map can be obtained by multiplying 7 indicators together and ranking the product. The map had 5 risk ranges, and towns within the range of 4 to 5, which are high landslide risk regions, and have high priority in reducing risk. This study collected the regions with high landslide risk regions and analyzed the difference after Typhoon Morakot (2009). The spatial distribution showed that after significant environmental damage high landslide risk regions moved from central to south Taiwan. The changeable pattern of risk regions pointed out the necessity of updating the risk map periodically. Based on the landslide risk map and the land use investigation data which was provided by the National Land Surveying and Mapping Center in 2007, this study calculated the size of the land use area with landslide disaster risk. According to the above results and discussion, this study can be used to suggest appropriate land use adaptation strategies provided for reducing landslide risk under the impact of climate and environmental change.

  12. New Horizons Risk Communication Strategy, Planning, Implementation, and Lessons Learned

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dawson, Sandra A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the risk communication goals, strategy, planning process and product development for the New Horizons mission, including lessons from the Cassini mission that were applied in that effort, and presents lessons learned from the New Horizons effort that could be applicable to future missions.

  13. The evolution of risk and bailout strategy in banking systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Caux, Robert; McGroarty, Frank; Brede, Markus

    2017-02-01

    In this paper we analyse the long-term costs and benefits of bailout strategies in models of networked banking systems. Unlike much of the current literature on financial contagion that focuses on systemic risk at one point in time, we consider adaptive banks that adjust risk taking in response to internal system dynamics and regulatory intervention, allowing us to analyse the potentially crucial moral hazard aspect associated with frequent bailouts. We demonstrate that whereas bailout generally serves as an effective tool to limit the size of bankruptcy cascades in the short term, inappropriate intervention strategies can encourage risk-taking and thus be inefficient and detrimental to long term system stability. We analyse points of long-term optimal bailout and discuss their dependence on the structure of the banking network. In the second part of the paper, we demonstrate that bailout efficiency can be improved by taking into account information about the topology of and risk allocation on the banking network, and demonstrate that finely tuned intervention strategies aimed at bailing out banks in configurations with some degree of anti-correlated risk have superior performance. These results demonstrate that a suitable intervention policy may be a useful tool for driving the banking system towards a more robust structure.

  14. Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and smoldering multiple myeloma: a review of the current understanding of epidemiology, biology, risk stratification, and management of myeloma precursor disease.

    PubMed

    Agarwal, Amit; Ghobrial, Irene M

    2013-03-01

    The term monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) was coined in 1978. The recent advances in our knowledge about MGUS and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) have helped us better understand the pathogenesis of myeloma. It seems that myeloma evolves from a precursor state in almost all cases. We do not completely understand the multistep process from the precursor state to myeloma, but studies like whole genome sequencing continue to improve our understanding of this process. The process of transformation may not be linear acquisition of changes, but rather a branched heterogeneous process. Clinical features that are prognostic of rapid transformation have been identified, but no specific molecular markers have been identified. Even with recent advances, multiple myeloma remains an incurable disease in the vast majority, and intervening at the precursor state provides a unique opportunity to alter the natural history of the disease. A limitation is that a vast majority of patients with precursor disease, especially low-risk MGUS, will never progress to myeloma in their lifetime, and treating these patients is not only unnecessary but may be potentially harmful. The challenge is to identify a subset of patients with the precursor state that would definitely progress to myeloma and in whom interventions will have a meaningful impact. As our understanding of the molecular and genetic processes improves, these studies will guide the selection of high-risk patients more appropriately and ultimately direct a tailored management strategy to either delay progression to symptomatic myeloma or even "cure" a person at this premalignant stage.

  15. Using risk elasticity to prioritize risk reduction strategies for geographical areas and industry sectors.

    PubMed

    Li, Pei-Chiun; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2016-01-25

    The total quantity of chemical emissions does not take into account their chemical toxicity, and fails to be an accurate indicator of the potential impact on human health. The sources of released contaminants, and therefore, the potential risk, also differ based on geography. Because of the complexity of the risk, there is no integrated method to evaluate the effectiveness of risk reduction. Therefore, this study developed a method to incorporate the spatial variability of emissions into human health risk assessment to evaluate how to effectively reduce risk using risk elasticity analysis. Risk elasticity analysis, the percentage change in risk in response to the percentage change in emissions, was adopted in this study to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of risk reduction. The results show that the main industry sectors are different in each area, and that high emission in an area does not correspond to high risk. Decreasing the high emissions of certain sectors in an area does not result in efficient risk reduction in this area. This method can provide more holistic information for risk management, prevent the development of increased risk, and prioritize the risk reduction strategies.

  16. A mathematically guided strategy for risk assessment and management.

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, James Arlin

    2005-03-01

    Strategies for risk assessment and management of high consequence operations are often based on factors such as physical analysis, analysis of software and other logical processing, and analysis of statistically determined human actions. Conventional analysis methods work well for processing objective information. However, in practical situations, much or most of the data available are subjective. Also, there are potential resultant pitfalls where conventional analysis might be unrealistic, such as improperly using event tree and fault tree failure descriptions where failures or events are soft (partial) rather than crisp (binary), neglecting or misinterpreting dependence (positive, negative, correlation), and aggregating nonlinear contributions linearly. There are also personnel issues that transcend basic human factors statistics. For example, sustained productivity and safety in critical operations can depend on the morale of involved personnel. In addition, motivation is significantly influenced by 'latent effects', which are pre-occurring influences. This paper addresses these challenges and proposes techniques for subjective risk analysis, latent effects risk analysis and a hybrid analysis that also includes objective risk analysis. The goal is an improved strategy for risk management.

  17. [Strategies for reducing risks in smoking: opportunity or threat].

    PubMed

    Córdoba, Rodrigo; Nerín, Isabel

    2009-12-01

    The smoking control policies recommended by the World Health Organisation have achieved a slight decrease in smoking prevalence in the developed countries, although associated mortality is still very high. The use of tobacco products other than cigarettes and even medicinal nicotine (known as nicotine replacement therapy (NRT)) has been proposed as a risk reduction strategy. Among the tobacco products with less individual risk than cigarettes would be any type of tobacco without smoke (smokeless) with a low content in nitrosamines and modified cigarettes; both forms included under the PREP (Potentially Reduced Exposure Products) concept. The idea would be to promote these products among those who cannot quit smoking or wish to reduce their risk without giving up nicotine intake. The possible effects of risk reduction strategies, including PREP, on the decreased prevalence and morbidity and mortality are reviewed, and the possible implications that this measure could have in our country are analysed. Tobacco control measures in Spain are recent and still insufficient. Therefore, the current priority in Spain is the development of policies of control that have shown to more than effective. The marketing and advertising of new tobacco products, even with reduced potential risk, seems more a serious threat than an opportunity for the development of smoking control policies.

  18. Stratification of lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boehrer, Bertram; Schultze, Martin

    2008-06-01

    Many lakes show vertical stratification of their water masses, at least for some extended time periods. Density differences in water bodies facilitate an evolution of chemical differences with many consequences for living organisms in lakes. Temperature and dissolved substances contribute to density differences in water. The atmosphere imposes a temperature signal on the lake surface. As a result, thermal stratification can be established during the warm season if a lake is sufficiently deep. On the contrary, during the cold period, surface cooling forces vertical circulation of water masses and removal of gradients of water properties. However, gradients of dissolved substances may be sustained for periods much longer than one annual cycle. Such lakes do not experience full overturns. Gradients may be a consequence of external inflows or groundwater seepage. In addition, photosynthesis at the lake surface and subsequent decomposition of organic material in the deeper layers of a lake can sustain a gradient of dissolved substances. Three more geochemical cycles, namely, calcite precipitation, iron cycle, and manganese cycle, are known for sustaining meromixis. A limited number of lakes do not experience a complete overturn because of pressure dependence of temperature of maximum density. Such lakes must be sufficiently deep and lie in the appropriate climate zone. Although these lakes are permanently stratified, deep waters are well ventilated, and chemical differences are small. Turbulent mixing and convective deep water renewal must be very effective. As a consequence, these lakes usually are not termed meromictic. Permanent stratification may also be created by episodic partial recharging of the deep water layer. This mechanism resembles the cycling of the ocean: horizontal gradients result from gradients at the surface, such as differential cooling or enhanced evaporation in adjacent shallow side bays. Dense water parcels can be formed which intrude the deep

  19. Oncological results, functional outcomes and health-related quality-of-life in men who received a radical prostatectomy or external beam radiation therapy for localized prostate cancer: a study on long-term patient outcome with risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Takizawa, Itsuhiro; Hara, Noboru; Nishiyama, Tsutomu; Kaneko, Masaaki; Hoshii, Tatsuhiko; Tsuchida, Emiko; Takahashi, Kota

    2009-05-01

    Health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) after a radical prostatectomy (RP) or external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) has not been studied in conjunction with oncological outcomes in relation to disease risk stratification. Moreover, the long-term outcomes of these treatment approaches have not been studied. We retrospectively analyzed oncological outcomes between consecutive patients receiving RP (n=86) and EBRT (n=76) for localized prostate cancer. HRQOL and functional outcomes could be assessed in 62 RP (79%) and 54 EBRT (79%) patients over a 3-year follow-up period (median: 41 months) using the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 (SF-36) and the University of California Los Angeles Prostate Cancer Index (UCLA PCI). The 5-year biochemical progression-free survival did not differ between the RP and EBRT groups for low-risk (74.6% vs. 75.0%, P=0.931) and intermediate-risk (61.3% vs. 71.1%, P=0.691) patients. For high-risk patients, progression-free survival was lower in the RP group (45.1%) than in the EBRT group (79.7%) (P=0.002). The general HRQOL was comparable between the two groups. Regarding functional outcomes, the RP group reported lower scores on urinary function and less urinary bother and sexual bother than the EBRT group (P<0.001, P<0.05 and P<0.001, respectively). With risk stratification, the low- and intermediate-risk patients in the RP group reported poorer urinary function than patients in the EBRT group (P<0.001 for each). The sexual function of the high-risk patients in the EBRT group was better than that of the same risk RP patients (P<0.001). Biochemical recurrence was not associated with the UCLA PCI score in either group. In conclusion, low- to intermediate-risk patients treated with an RP may report relatively decreased urinary function during long-term follow-up. The patient's HRQOL after treatment did not depend on biochemical recurrence.

  20. Advances in Risk Classification and Treatment Strategies for Neuroblastoma

    PubMed Central

    Pinto, Navin R.; Applebaum, Mark A.; Volchenboum, Samuel L.; Matthay, Katherine K.; London, Wendy B.; Ambros, Peter F.; Nakagawara, Akira; Berthold, Frank; Schleiermacher, Gudrun; Park, Julie R.; Valteau-Couanet, Dominique; Pearson, Andrew D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Risk-based treatment approaches for neuroblastoma have been ongoing for decades. However, the criteria used to define risk in various institutional and cooperative groups were disparate, limiting the ability to compare clinical trial results. To mitigate this problem and enhance collaborative research, homogenous pretreatment patient cohorts have been defined by the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group classification system. During the past 30 years, increasingly intensive, multimodality approaches have been developed to treat patients who are classified as high risk, whereas patients with low- or intermediate-risk neuroblastoma have received reduced therapy. This treatment approach has resulted in improved outcome, although survival for high-risk patients remains poor, emphasizing the need for more effective treatments. Increased knowledge regarding the biology and genetic basis of neuroblastoma has led to the discovery of druggable targets and promising, new therapeutic approaches. Collaborative efforts of institutions and international cooperative groups have led to advances in our understanding of neuroblastoma biology, refinements in risk classification, and stratified treatment strategies, resulting in improved outcome. International collaboration will be even more critical when evaluating therapies designed to treat small cohorts of patients with rare actionable mutations. PMID:26304901

  1. Advances in Risk Classification and Treatment Strategies for Neuroblastoma.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Navin R; Applebaum, Mark A; Volchenboum, Samuel L; Matthay, Katherine K; London, Wendy B; Ambros, Peter F; Nakagawara, Akira; Berthold, Frank; Schleiermacher, Gudrun; Park, Julie R; Valteau-Couanet, Dominique; Pearson, Andrew D J; Cohn, Susan L

    2015-09-20

    Risk-based treatment approaches for neuroblastoma have been ongoing for decades. However, the criteria used to define risk in various institutional and cooperative groups were disparate, limiting the ability to compare clinical trial results. To mitigate this problem and enhance collaborative research, homogenous pretreatment patient cohorts have been defined by the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group classification system. During the past 30 years, increasingly intensive, multimodality approaches have been developed to treat patients who are classified as high risk, whereas patients with low- or intermediate-risk neuroblastoma have received reduced therapy. This treatment approach has resulted in improved outcome, although survival for high-risk patients remains poor, emphasizing the need for more effective treatments. Increased knowledge regarding the biology and genetic basis of neuroblastoma has led to the discovery of druggable targets and promising, new therapeutic approaches. Collaborative efforts of institutions and international cooperative groups have led to advances in our understanding of neuroblastoma biology, refinements in risk classification, and stratified treatment strategies, resulting in improved outcome. International collaboration will be even more critical when evaluating therapies designed to treat small cohorts of patients with rare actionable mutations.

  2. Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and Smoldering Multiple Myeloma: A review of the current understanding of epidemiology, biology, risk stratification and management of myeloma precursor disease

    PubMed Central

    Agarwal, Amit; Ghobrial, Irene

    2012-01-01

    The term monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) was coined in 1978. The recent advances in our knowledge about MGUS and smoldering MM (SMM) have helped us better understand the pathogenesis of myeloma. It appears that myeloma evolves from a precursor state in almost all cases. We do not completely understand the multistep process from the precursor state to myeloma but studies including whole genome sequencing will continue to help in improving our understanding of this process. The process of transformation may not be linear acquisition of changes but rather a branched heterogeneous process. Clinical features that are prognostic of rapid transformation have been identified but no specific molecular markers have been identified. Even with recent advances, multiple myeloma remains an incurable disease in the vast majority and intervening at the precursor state provides a unique opportunity to alter the natural history of the disease. A limitation is that a vast majority of patients with precursor disease especially low risk MGUS will never progress to myeloma in their lifetime and treating these patients is not only unnecessary but may be potentially harmful. The challenge is to identify a subset of patients with the precursor state that would definitely progress to myeloma and in whom interventions will have a meaningful impact. As our understanding of the molecular and genetic processes improves, these studies will guide the selection of high-risk patients more appropriately and ultimately direct a tailored management strategy to either delay progression to symptomatic myeloma or even “cure” a person at this premalignant stage. PMID:23224402

  3. HIV and smoking: associated risks and prevention strategies

    PubMed Central

    Kariuki, Wanjiku; Manuel, Jennifer I; Kariuki, Ngaruiya; Tuchman, Ellen; O’Neal, Johnnie; Lalanne, Genevieve A

    2016-01-01

    High rates of smoking among persons living with HIV (PLWH) may reduce the effectiveness of HIV treatment and contribute to significant morbidity and mortality. Factors associated with smoking in PLWH include mental health comorbidity, alcohol and drug use, health-related quality of life, smoking among social networks and supports, and lack of access to care. PLWH smokers are at a higher risk of numerous HIV-associated infections and non-HIV related morbidity, including a decreased response to antiretroviral treatment, impaired immune functioning, reduced cognitive functioning, decreased lung functioning, and cardiovascular disease. Seventeen smoking cessation interventions were identified, of which seven were randomized controlled trials. The most effective studies combined behavioral and pharmacotherapy treatments that incorporated comprehensive assessments, multiple sessions, and cognitive-behavioral and motivational strategies. Smoking cessation interventions that are tailored to the unique needs of diverse samples and incorporate strategies to reduce the risk of relapse are essential to advancing health outcomes in PLWH. PMID:26766919

  4. Nighttime parenting strategies and sleep-related risks to infants.

    PubMed

    Volpe, Lane E; Ball, Helen L; McKenna, James J

    2013-02-01

    A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004. Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may

  5. Bioastronautics Roadmap: A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap is the framework used to identify and assess the risks to crews exposed to the hazardous environments of space. It guides the implementation of research strategies to prevent or reduce those risks. Although the BCPR identifies steps that must be taken to reduce the risks to health and performance that are associated with human space flight, the BCPR is not a "critical path" analysis in the strict engineering sense. The BCPR will evolve to accommodate new information and technology development and will enable NASA to conduct a formal critical path analysis in the future. As a management tool, the BCPR provides information for making informed decisions about research priorities and resource allocation. The outcome-driven nature of the BCPR makes it amenable for assessing the focus, progress and success of the Bioastronautics research and technology program. The BCPR is also a tool for communicating program priorities and progress to the research community and NASA management.

  6. Emotion regulation strategies and childhood obesity in high risk preschoolers.

    PubMed

    Power, Thomas G; Olivera, Yadira A; Hill, Rachael A; Beck, Ashley D; Hopwood, Veronica; Garcia, Karina Silva; Ramos, Guadalupe G; Fisher, Jennifer Orlet; O'Connor, Teresia M; Hughes, Sheryl O

    2016-12-01

    The current study examined the relationships between the specific strategies that preschool children use to regulate their emotions and childhood weight status to see if emotion regulation strategies would predict childhood weight status over and above measures of eating self-regulation. 185 4- to 5-year-old Latino children were recruited through Head Start centers in a large city in the southeastern U.S. Children completed both a delay of gratification task (emotion regulation) and an eating in the absence of hunger task (eating regulation). Eating regulation also was assessed by maternal reports. Four emotion regulation strategies were examined in the delay of gratification task: shut out stimuli, prevent movement, distraction, and attention to reward. Hierarchical linear regressions predicting children's weight status showed that both measures of eating regulation negatively predicted child obesity, and the use of prevent movement negatively predicted child obesity. Total wait time during the delay of gratification tasks was not a significant predictor. The current findings are consistent with studies showing that for preschool children, summary measures of emotion regulation (e.g., wait time) are not concurrently associated with child obesity. In contrast, the use of emotion regulation strategies was a significant predictor of lower child weight status. These findings help identify emotion regulation strategies that prevention programs can target for helping children regulate their emotions and decrease their obesity risk.

  7. TRALI risk reduction: donor and component management strategies.

    PubMed

    Eder, Anne F; Benjamin, Richard J

    2009-01-01

    Transfusion-related lung injury (TRALI) occurs in approximately 1 in 5,000 transfusions and may cause considerably more morbidity and mortality that is not recognized in clinical practice. Based on the current understanding of the etiology of TRALI, blood centers have implemented or are evaluating various donor and component management strategies in an effort to mitigate the risk of TRALI. Many cases of TRALI are likely caused by antibodies to leukocyte antigens (HLA or HNA) in blood components. Approximately 10 to 20% of female blood donors with a history of pregnancy and 1 to 5% of male blood donors harbor these antibodies. Alternatively, TRALI may be mediated by other bioactive lipids or substances that accumulate during storage and cause a reaction when transfused to susceptible patients. The complex interplay among various donor-, component-, and patient-related factors underlying TRALI guarantees that effective prevention will not be a single or simple intervention but rather will require a multifaceted approach. Perhaps, the most important risk reduction strategy is the effort to ensure appropriate use of blood products and eliminate unnecessary transfusions. Blood collection agencies, however, have more proximate control over donor selection and component management than transfusion practice. AABB has provided some guidance on deferring donors implicated in TRALI and minimizing the preparation of high plasma volume components from donors who have anti-leukocyte antibodies or are at increased risk of leukocyte alloimmunization. Blood centers have taken various approaches to mitigate the risk of TRALI, and the possible benefit and the inherent limitations of the current strategies will be reviewed.

  8. Propellant thermal stratification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Winstead, T. W.

    1971-01-01

    The term thermal stratification is used to express nonuniform heat distribution within the bulk propellant. The nonuniform distribution of heat results in significant temperature variations in booster propulsion propellants and causes an undesirable increase in the self-pressurization rate of cryogen storage systems. A semiempirical prediction method has been developed for high gravity environments and is adequate for design purposes; model accuracy is somewhat limited to similarity in tank geometries, and additional work is needed to extend the correlation range. Several low gravity environment models that cover a broad range of predicted results have been developed. There are no applicable data by which any of these models may be selected in preference over the others.

  9. ASTARTE: Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baptista, M. A.; Yalciner, A. C.; Canals, M.

    2014-12-01

    Tsunamis are low frequency but high impact natural disasters. In 2004, the Boxing Day tsunami killed hundreds of thousands of people from many nations along the coastlines of the Indian Ocean. Tsunami run-up exceeded 35 m. Seven years later, and in spite of some of the best warning technologies and levels of preparedness in the world, the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in Japan dramatically showed the limitations of scientific knowledge on tsunami sources, coastal impacts and mitigation measures. The experience from Japan raised serious questions on how to improve the resilience of coastal communities, to upgrade the performance of coastal defenses, to adopt a better risk management, and also on the strategies and priorities for the reconstruction of damaged coastal areas. Societal resilience requires the reinforcement of capabilities to manage and reduce risk at national and local scales.ASTARTE (Assessment STrategy And Risk for Tsunami in Europe), a 36-month FP7 project, aims to develop a comprehensive strategy to mitigate tsunami impact in this region. To achieve this goal, an interdisciplinary consortium has been assembled. It includes all CTWPs of NEAM and expert institutions across Europe and worldwide. ASTARTE will improve i) basic knowledge of tsunami generation and recurrence going beyond simple catalogues, with novel empirical data and new statistical analyses for assessing long-term recurrence and hazards of large events in sensitive areas of NEAM, ii) numerical techniques for tsunami simulation, with focus on real-time codes and novel statistical emulation approaches, and iii) methods for assessment of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. ASTARTE will also provide i) guidelines for tsunami Eurocodes, ii) better tools for forecast and warning for CTWPs and NTWCs, and iii) guidelines for decision makers to increase sustainability and resilience of coastal communities. In summary, ASTARTE will develop basic scientific and technical elements allowing for a significant

  10. Landslide risk reduction strategies: an inventory for the Global South

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maes, Jan; Kervyn, Matthieu; Vranken, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Mertens, Kewan; Jacobs, Liesbet; Poesen, Jean

    2015-04-01

    Landslides constitute a serious problem globally. Moreover, landslide impact remains underestimated especially in the Global South. It is precisely there where the largest impact is experienced. An overview of measures taken to reduce risk of landslides in the Global South is however still lacking. Because in many countries of the Global South disaster risk reduction (DRR) is at an emerging stage, it is crucial to monitor the ongoing efforts (e.g. discussions on the Post-2015 Framework for DRR). The first objective of this study is to make an inventory of techniques and strategies that are applied to reduce risk from landslides in tropical countries. The second objective is to investigate what are the main bottlenecks for implementation of DRR strategies. In order to achieve these objectives, a review of both scientific and grey literature was conducted, supplemented with expert knowledge. The compilation of recommended and implemented DRR measures from landslide-prone tropical countries is based on an adapted classification proposed by the SafeLand project. According to Vaciago (2013), landslide risk can be reduced by either reducing the hazard, the vulnerability, the number or value of elements at risk or by sharing the residual risk. In addition, these measures can be combined with education and/or awareness raising and are influenced by governance structures and cultural beliefs. Global landslide datasets have been used to identify landslide-prone countries, augmented with region-specific datasets. Countries located in the tropics were selected in order to include landslide-prone countries with a different Human Development Index (HDI) but with a similar climate. Preliminary results support the statement made by Anderson (2013) that although the importance of shifting from post-disaster emergency actions to pre-disaster mitigation is acknowledged, in practice this paradigm shift seems rather limited. It is expected that this is especially the case in countries

  11. Feasibility of the AML profiler (Skyline™ Array) for patient risk stratification in a multicentre trial: a preliminary comparison with the conventional approach.

    PubMed

    Nomdedéu, Josep F; Puigdecanet, Eulalia; Bussaglia, Elena; Hernández, Juan José; Carricondo, Maite; Estivill, Camino; Martí-Tutusaus, Josep Maria; Tormo, Mar; Zamora, Lurdes; Serrano, Elena; Perea, Granada; de Llano, Maria Paz Queipo; García, Antoni; Sánchez-Ortega, Isabel; Ribera, Josep Maria; Nonell, Lara; Aventin, Anna; Solé, Francesc; Brunet, Maria Salut; Sierra, Jorge

    2016-05-03

    Deoxyribonucleic acid microarrays allow researchers to measure mRNA levels of thousands of genes in a single experiment and could be useful for diagnostic purposes in patients with acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). We assessed the feasibility of the AML profiler (Skyline™ Array) in genetic stratification of patients with de novo AML and compared the results with those obtained using the standard cytogenetic and molecular approach. Diagnostic bone marrow from 31 consecutive de novo AML cases was used to test MLL-PTD, FLT3-ITD and TKD, NPM1 and CEBPAdm mutations. Purified RNA was used to assess RUNX1-RUNX1T1, PML-RARα and CBFβ-MYH11 rearrangements. RNA remnants underwent gene expression profiling analysis using the AML profiler, which detects chromosomal aberrations: t(8;21), t(15;17), inv(16), mutations (CEBPAdm, ABD-NPM1) and BAALC and EVI1 expression. Thirty cases were successfully analysed with both methods. Five cases had FLT3-ITD. In one case, a t(8;21) was correctly detected by both methods. Four cases had inv(16); in one, the RNA quality was unsatisfactory and it was not hybridized, and in the other three, the AML profiler detected the genetic lesion - this being a rare type I translocation in one case. Two cases with acute promyelocytic leukaemia were diagnosed by both methods. Results for NPM1 mutations were concordant in all but two cases (2/11, non-ABD mutations). Analysis of costs and turnaround times showed that the AML profiler was no more expensive than the conventional molecular approach. These results suggest that the AML profiler could be useful in multicentre trials to rapidly identify patients with AML with a good prognosis. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Analyzing nocturnal noise stratification.

    PubMed

    Rey Gozalo, Guillermo; Barrigón Morillas, Juan Miguel; Gómez Escobar, Valentín

    2014-05-01

    Pollution associated to traffic can be considered as one of the most relevant pollution sources in our cities; noise is one of the major components of traffic pollution; thus, efforts are necessary to search adequate noise assessment methods and low pollution city designs. Different methods have been proposed for the evaluation of noise in cities, including the categorization method, which is based on the functionality concept. Until now, this method has only been studied (with encouraging results) for short-term, diurnal measurements, but nocturnal noise presents a behavior clearly different on respect to the diurnal one. In this work 45 continuous measurements of approximately one week each in duration are statistically analyzed to identify differences between the proposed categories. The results show that the five proposed categories highlight the noise stratification of the studied city in each period of the day (day, evening, and night). A comparison of the continuous measurements with previous short-term measurements indicates that the latter can be a good approximation of the former in diurnal period, reducing the resource expenditure for noise evaluation. Annoyance estimated from the measured noise levels was compared with the response of population obtained from a questionnaire with good agreement. The categorization method can yield good information about the distribution of a pollutant associated to traffic in our cities in each period of the day and, therefore, is a powerful tool for town planning and the design of pollution prevention policies.

  13. Developing Hydrogeological Site Characterization Strategies based on Human Health Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, F.; Rubin, Y.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to provide better sustainable groundwater quality management and minimize the impact of contamination in humans, improved understanding and quantification of the interaction between hydrogeological models, geological site information and human health are needed. Considering the joint influence of these components in the overall human health risk assessment and the corresponding sources of uncertainty aid decision makers to better allocate resources in data acquisition campaigns. This is important to (1) achieve remediation goals in a cost-effective manner, (2) protect human health and (3) keep water supplies clean in order to keep with quality standards. Such task is challenging since a full characterization of the subsurface is unfeasible due to financial and technological constraints. In addition, human exposure and physiological response to contamination are subject to uncertainty and variability. Normally, sampling strategies are developed with the goal of reducing uncertainty, but less often they are developed in the context of their impacts on the overall system uncertainty. Therefore, quantifying the impact from each of these components (hydrogeological, behavioral and physiological) in final human health risk prediction can provide guidance for decision makers to best allocate resources towards minimal prediction uncertainty. In this presentation, a multi-component human health risk-based framework is presented which allows decision makers to set priorities through an information entropy-based visualization tool. Results highlight the role of characteristic length-scales characterizing flow and transport in determining data needs within an integrated hydrogeological-health framework. Conditions where uncertainty reduction in human health risk predictions may benefit from better understanding of the health component, as opposed to a more detailed hydrogeological characterization, are also discussed. Finally, results illustrate how different dose

  14. HIPAA and information security risk: implementing an enterprise-wide risk management strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alberts, Christopher J.; Dorofee, Audrey

    2001-08-01

    The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) of 1996 effectively establishes a standard of due care for healthcare information security. One of the challenges of implementing policies, procedures, and practices consistent with HIPAA requirements in the Department of Defense Military Health System is the need for a method that can tailor the requirements to a variety of organizational contexts. This paper will describe a self- directed information security risk evaluation that will enable military healthcare providers to assess their risks and to develop mitigation strategies consistent with HIPAA guidelines.

  15. Prognostic Factors for Risk Stratification of Patients with Recurrent or Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma Who Were Treated with Gemcitabine-Based Chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Park, Inkeun; Choi, Seung Joon; Kim, Young Saing; Ahn, Hee Kyung; Hong, Junshik; Sym, Sun Jin; Park, Jinny; Cho, Eun Kyung; Lee, Jae Hoon; Shin, Yong Ju; Shin, Dong Bok

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this study was to verify prognostic factors including sarcopenia in patients with recurrent or metastatic pancreatic cancer receiving gemcitabine-based chemotherapy. Materials and Methods Medical records and computed tomography scan of consecutive patients treated with palliative gemcitabine-based chemotherapy from 2008 to 2014 were reviewed. The lumbar skeletal muscle index at third lumbar spine level was computed, and together with clinicolaboratory factors, univariate and multivariable analyses for overall survival (OS) were performed. Results A total of 88 patients were found. Median age was 65 years, and male patients were predominant (67.0%). Most patients had initially metastatic disease (72.7%), and gemcitabine monotherapy was administered in 29 patients (33.0%) while gemcitabine plus erlotinib was administered in 59 patients (67.0%). Seventy-six patients (86.3%) had sarcopenia. With a median follow-up period of 44.3 months (range, 0.6 to 44.3 months), median OS was 5.35 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.11 to 6.59). In univariate and multivariable analysis, high carcinoembryonic antigen level (hazard ratio [HR], 4.18; 95% CI, 1.95 to 8.97; p < 0.001), initially metastatic disease (HR, 3.37; 95% CI, 1.55 to 7.32; p=0.002), sarcopenia (HR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.20 to 7.36; p=0.019), neutrophilia (HR, 2.94; 95% CI, 1.27 to 6.79; p=0.012), and high lactate dehydrogenase level (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.07 to 3.58; p=0.029) were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS. Conclusion Five independent prognostic factors in patients with recurrent or metastatic pancreatic cancer who received gemcitabine-based chemotherapy were identified. These findings may be helpful in prediction of prognosis in clinical practice and can be used as a stratification factor for clinical trials. PMID:27034148

  16. [The role of biochemical markers of myocardial damage in clinical practice: the diagnosis of infarct and risk stratification. The Intersociety Interdisciplinary Study Group of the ANMCO-SIBioC-SIMeL, Markers of Muocardial Lesions. L'Associazione Nazionale Medici Cardiologi Ospedalieri-Società Italiana di Biochimica Clinica-Società Italiana di Medicina di Laboratorio].

    PubMed

    Ottani, F; Galvani, M; Panteghini, M; Dolci, A; Plebani, M; Tubaro, M; Zaninotto, M

    2000-01-01

    For many years creatine kinase (CK) and CK-MB isoenzymes were used together with the ECG to confirm the presence of myocardial infarction. During the last decade newer cardiac markers have been introduced and immunological test systems developed for their quantification. Among these new markers, a prominent role has emerged for cardiac troponins (T or I). These technological advanced assays have shown greater sensitivity compared to "conventional cardiac enzymes;, thereby identifying patients with small--at times, microscopic--infarcts who would not have met defining criteria for myocardial infarction in an earlier era. Another major advantage shown by both cardiac troponins with respect to "conventional cardiac enzymes" is their ability to predict clinical outcome over a short- or long-term follow-up in patients with acute coronary syndromes, and this appears to be particularly relevant in patients with micronecrosis, who constitute a high-risk subgroup of unstable angina patients. Recently, myoglobin has also been widely applied as a marker. Although lacking in myocardial specificity, it is the earliest marker to show an increase after coronary occlusion. Thus, the combined use of myoglobin and a cardiospecific structural protein such as troponin T or I may prove an attractive strategy for biochemical testing in chest pain patients. With the routine use of these novel cardiac markers, fascinating opportunities are now open in the field of diagnostic classification (making the World Health Organization definition of myocardial infarction obsolete) and risk stratification in chest pain patients; opportunities that were unforeseen in the era of cardiac enzymes. However, the use of these markers has also posed some important questions on: a) the best and most cost-effective diagnostic strategy in chest pain patients; b) the remaining role of cardiac enzymes; c) the therapeutic consequences of a positive test result.

  17. Elder Abuse: Global Situation, Risk Factors, and Prevention Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Pillemer, Karl; Burnes, David; Riffin, Catherine; Lachs, Mark S.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Elder mistreatment is now recognized internationally as a pervasive and growing problem, urgently requiring the attention of health care systems, social welfare agencies, policymakers, and the general public. In this article, we provide an overview of global issues in the field of elder abuse, with a focus on prevention. Design and Methods: This article provides a scoping review of key issues in the field from an international perspective. Results: By drawing primarily on population-based studies, this scoping review provided a more valid and reliable synthesis of current knowledge about prevalence and risk factors than has been available. Despite the lack of scientifically rigorous intervention research on elder abuse, the review also identified 5 promising strategies for prevention. Implications: The findings highlight a growing consensus across studies regarding the extent and causes of elder mistreatment, as well as the urgent need for efforts to make elder mistreatment prevention programs more effective and evidence based. PMID:26994260

  18. Biological Risks to Public Health: Lessons from an International Conference to Inform the Development of National Risk Communication Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Bhatiasevi, Aphaluck; Chaib, Fadela; Baggio, Ombretta; Banluta, Christina; Hollenweger, Lilian; Maaroufi, Abderrahmane

    2016-01-01

    Biological risk management in public health focuses on the impact of outbreaks on health, the economy, and other systems and on ensuring biosafety and biosecurity. To address this broad range of risks, the International Health Regulations (IHR, 2005) request that all member states build defined core capacities, risk communication being one of them. While there is existing guidance on the communication process and on what health authorities need to consider to design risk communication strategies that meet the requirements on a governance level, little has been done on implementation because of a number of factors, including lack of resources (human, financial, and others) and systems to support effective and consistent capacity for risk communication. The international conference on “Risk communication strategies before, during and after public health emergencies” provided a platform to present current strategies, facilitate learning from recent outbreaks of infectious diseases, and discuss recommendations to inform risk communication strategy development. The discussion concluded with 4 key areas for improvement in risk communication: consider communication as a multidimensional process in risk communication, broaden the biomedical paradigm by integrating social science intelligence into epidemiologic risk assessments, strengthen multisectoral collaboration including with local organizations, and spearhead changes in organizations for better risk communication governance. National strategies should design risk communication to be proactive, participatory, and multisectoral, facilitating the connection between sectors and strengthening collaboration. PMID:27875654

  19. Biological Risks to Public Health: Lessons from an International Conference to Inform the Development of National Risk Communication Strategies.

    PubMed

    Dickmann, Petra; Bhatiasevi, Aphaluck; Chaib, Fadela; Baggio, Ombretta; Banluta, Christina; Hollenweger, Lilian; Maaroufi, Abderrahmane

    Biological risk management in public health focuses on the impact of outbreaks on health, the economy, and other systems and on ensuring biosafety and biosecurity. To address this broad range of risks, the International Health Regulations (IHR, 2005) request that all member states build defined core capacities, risk communication being one of them. While there is existing guidance on the communication process and on what health authorities need to consider to design risk communication strategies that meet the requirements on a governance level, little has been done on implementation because of a number of factors, including lack of resources (human, financial, and others) and systems to support effective and consistent capacity for risk communication. The international conference on "Risk communication strategies before, during and after public health emergencies" provided a platform to present current strategies, facilitate learning from recent outbreaks of infectious diseases, and discuss recommendations to inform risk communication strategy development. The discussion concluded with 4 key areas for improvement in risk communication: consider communication as a multidimensional process in risk communication, broaden the biomedical paradigm by integrating social science intelligence into epidemiologic risk assessments, strengthen multisectoral collaboration including with local organizations, and spearhead changes in organizations for better risk communication governance. National strategies should design risk communication to be proactive, participatory, and multisectoral, facilitating the connection between sectors and strengthening collaboration.

  20. Risk stratification of early admission to the intensive care unit of patients with no major criteria of severe community-acquired pneumonia: development of an international prediction rule

    PubMed Central

    Renaud, Bertrand; Labarère, José; Coma, Eva; Santin, Aline; Hayon, Jan; Gurgui, Mercé; Camus, Nicolas; Roupie, Eric; Hémery, François; Hervé, Jérôme; Salloum, Mirna; Fine, Michael J; Brun-Buisson, Christian

    2009-01-01

    Introduction To identify risk factors for early (< three days) intensive care unit (ICU) admission of patients hospitalised with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and not requiring immediate ICU admission, and to stratify the risk of ICU admission on days 1 to 3. Methods Using the original data from four North American and European prospective multicentre cohort studies of patients with CAP, we derived and validated a prediction rule for ICU admission on days 1 to 3 of emergency department (ED) presentation, for patients presenting with no obvious reason for immediate ICU admission (not requiring immediate respiratory or circulatory support). Results A total of 6560 patients were included (4593 and 1967 in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively), 303 (4.6%) of whom were admitted to an ICU on days 1 to 3. The Risk of Early Admission to ICU index (REA-ICU index) comprised 11 criteria independently associated with ICU admission: male gender, age younger than 80 years, comorbid conditions, respiratory rate of 30 breaths/minute or higher, heart rate of 125 beats/minute or higher, multilobar infiltrate or pleural effusion, white blood cell count less than 3 or 20 G/L or above, hypoxaemia (oxygen saturation < 90% or arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2) < 60 mmHg), blood urea nitrogen of 11 mmol/L or higher, pH less than 7.35 and sodium less than 130 mEq/L. The REA-ICU index stratified patients into four risk classes with a risk of ICU admission on days 1 to 3 ranging from 0.7 to 31%. The area under the curve was 0.81 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.78 to 0.83) in the overall population. Conclusions The REA-ICU index accurately stratifies the risk of ICU admission on days 1 to 3 for patients presenting to the ED with CAP and no obvious indication for immediate ICU admission and therefore may assist orientation decisions. PMID:19358736

  1. Roles of nuclear cardiology, cardiac computed tomography, and cardiac magnetic resonance: Noninvasive risk stratification and a conceptual framework for the selection of noninvasive imaging tests in patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease.

    PubMed

    Berman, Daniel S; Hachamovitch, Rory; Shaw, Leslee J; Friedman, John D; Hayes, Sean W; Thomson, Louise E J; Fieno, David S; Germano, Guido; Wong, Nathan D; Kang, Xingping; Rozanski, Alan

    2006-07-01

    This review deals with noninvasive imaging for risk stratification and with a conceptual approach to the selection of noninvasive tests in patients with suspected or known chronic coronary artery disease (CAD). Already widely acknowledged with SPECT, there is an increasing body of literature data demonstrating that CT coronary calcium assessment is also of prognostic value. The amount of coronary atherosclerosis, as can be extrapolated from CT coronary calcium score, has been shown to be highly predictive of cardiac events. The principal difference between myocardial perfusion SPECT (MPS) and CT coronary calcium for prognostic application appears to be that the former is an excellent tool for assessing short-term risk, thus effectively guiding decisions regarding revascularization. In contrast, the atherosclerosis imaging methods are likely to provide greater long-term risk assessment and, thus, are more useful in determination of the need for aggressive medical prevention measures. Although the more recent development of CT coronary angiography is promising for diagnosis, there has been no information to date regarding the prognostic value of the CT angiographic data. Similarly, cardiac MRI has not yet been adequately studied for its prognostic content. The selection of the most appropriate test for a given patient depends on the specific question being asked. In patients with a very low likelihood of CAD, no imaging test may be required. In screening the remaining asymptomatic patients, atherosclerosis imaging may be beneficial. In symptomatic patients, MPS, CT coronary angiography, and cardiac MRI play important roles. We consider it likely that, with an increased emphasis on prevention and a concomitant aging of the population, many forms of noninvasive cardiac imaging will continue to grow, with nuclear cardiology continuing to grow.

  2. Comparison of clinical outcomes and prognostic utility of risk stratification tools in patients with therapy-related vs de novo myelodysplastic syndromes: a report on behalf of the MDS Clinical Research Consortium.

    PubMed

    Zeidan, A M; Al Ali, N; Barnard, J; Padron, E; Lancet, J E; Sekeres, M A; Steensma, D P; DeZern, A; Roboz, G; Jabbour, E; Garcia-Manero, G; List, A; Komrokji, R

    2017-02-24

    While therapy-related (t)-myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) have worse outcomes than de novo MDS (d-MDS), some t-MDS patients have an indolent course. Most MDS prognostic models excluded t-MDS patients during development. The performances of the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS), revised IPSS (IPSS-R), MD Anderson Global Prognostic System (MPSS), WHO Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS) and t-MDS Prognostic System (TPSS) were compared among patients with t-MDS. Akaike information criteria (AIC) assessed the relative goodness of fit of the models. We identified 370 t-MDS patients (19%) among 1950 MDS patients. Prior therapy included chemotherapy alone (48%), chemoradiation (31%), and radiation alone in 21%. Median survival for t-MDS patients was significantly shorter than for d-MDS (19 vs 46 months, P<0.005). All models discriminated survival in t-MDS (P<0.005 for each model). Patients with t-MDS had a significantly higher hazard of death relative to d-MDS in every risk model, and had inferior survival compared to patients with d-MDS within all risk group categories. AIC Scores (lower is better) were 2316 (MPSS), 2343 (TPSS), 2343 (IPSS-R), 2361 (WPSS) and 2364 (IPSS). In conclusion, subsets of t-MDS patients with varying clinical outcomes can be identified using conventional risk stratification models. The MPSS, TPSS and IPSS-R provide the best predictive power.Leukemia advance online publication, 24 February 2017; doi:10.1038/leu.2017.33.

  3. In adults with t(8;21)AML, posttransplant RUNX1/RUNX1T1-based MRD monitoring, rather than c-KIT mutations, allows further risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yu; Wu, De-Pei; Liu, Qi-Fa; Qin, Ya-Zhen; Wang, Jing-Bo; Xu, Lan-Ping; Liu, Yan-Rong; Zhu, Hong-Hu; Chen, Jia; Dai, Min; Huang, Xiao-Jun

    2014-09-18

    We asked whether minimal residual disease (MRD) determined by RUNX1/RUNX1T1 transcript levels could identify allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo- HSCT) t(8;21) (q22;q22) acute myeloid leukemia patients who are at high risk for relapse, together with the impact of c-KIT mutations. Ninety-two consecutive adult t(8;21) patients who received allo-HSCT in complete remission were enrolled. MRD status at 1, 2, and 3 months after HSCT identified relapse patients (P5.05, P < .001, P5.0001, respectively). The 2-year cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR) and leukemia-free survival (LFS) was 32% vs 9% (P 5 .01) and 55% vs 70% (P 5 .12) for patients with and without c-KIT mutations, respectively. In multivariate analysis, MRD at the first 3 months after HSCT, rather than c-KIT mutations,was an independent factor for CIR (P5.001) and LFS(P5.001). In addition, 17 patients received donor lymphocyte infusion (DLI) as interventional therapy for MRD, and the 2-year CIR and LFS for patients with or without DLI was 24% vs 87% (P5.001) and 64%vs 0%(P < .001), respectively. In conclusion, MRD monitoring early after transplant allows further rapid identification of t(8;21) patients at high risk of relapse and was more predictive of relapse risk than c-KIT mutations.

  4. The first Latin-American risk stratification system for cardiac surgery: can be used as a graphic pocket-card score.

    PubMed

    Carosella, Victorio C; Navia, Jose L; Al-Ruzzeh, Sharif; Grancelli, Hugo; Rodriguez, Walter; Cardenas, Cesar; Bilbao, Jorge; Nojek, Carlos

    2009-08-01

    This study aims to develop the first Latin-American risk model that can be used as a simple, pocket-card graphic score at bedside. The risk model was developed on 2903 patients who underwent cardiac surgery at the Spanish Hospital of Buenos Aires, Argentina, between June 1994 and December 1999. Internal validation was performed on 708 patients between January 2000 and June 2001 at the same center. External validation was performed on 1087 patients between February 2000 and January 2007 at three other centers in Argentina. In the development dataset the area under receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was 0.73 and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test was P=0.88. In the internal validation ROC curve was 0.77. In the external validation ROC curve was 0.81, but imperfect calibration was detected because the observed in-hospital mortality (3.96%) was significantly lower than the development dataset (8.20%) (P<0.0001). Recalibration was done in 2007, showing excellent level of agreement between the observed and predicted mortality rates on all patients (P=0.92). This is the first risk model for cardiac surgery developed in a population of Latin-America with both internal and external validation. A simple graphic pocket-card score allows an easy bedside application with acceptable statistic precision.

  5. BAYESIAN BICLUSTERING FOR PATIENT STRATIFICATION.

    PubMed

    Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Ester, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The move from Empirical Medicine towards Personalized Medicine has attracted attention to Stratified Medicine (SM). Some methods are provided in the literature for patient stratification, which is the central task of SM, however, there are still significant open issues. First, it is still unclear if integrating different datatypes will help in detecting disease subtypes more accurately, and, if not, which datatype(s) are most useful for this task. Second, it is not clear how we can compare different methods of patient stratification. Third, as most of the proposed stratification methods are deterministic, there is a need for investigating the potential benefits of applying probabilistic methods. To address these issues, we introduce a novel integrative Bayesian biclustering method, called B2PS, for patient stratification and propose methods for evaluating the results. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of B2PS over a popular state-of-the-art method and the benefits of Bayesian approaches. Our results agree with the intuition that transcriptomic data forms a better basis for patient stratification than genomic data.

  6. Improving Fall Risk Factor Identification and Documentation of Risk Reduction Strategies by Rehabilitation Therapists through Continuing Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karnes, Michele J.

    2011-01-01

    This static group comparison study determined that an educational intervention was effective in increasing fall risk factor assessment, documentation of fall risk factors, and strategies devised to reduce fall risk factors by rehabilitation therapists for their older adult outpatients in clinics. Results showed that experimental group identified…

  7. Plasma Stratification by Planar Shocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keenan, Brett; Simakov, Andrei; Taitano, William; Chacon, Luis; Daughton, William

    2016-10-01

    A number of experimental observables in neutron yield and capsule compression in Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) experiments have been evading explanation by standard, single-fluid, hydrodynamic (hydro) numerical simulations. Fuel stratification - resulting from particle diffusion, multi-ion temperature separation (in the case of OMEGA experiments with gas filled capsules), and certain kinetic effects - is a likely culprit. As a preliminary step to elucidate these effects, we consider mass fraction and temperature stratification by shocks in plasmas with two ion species. We present an analytical solution valid for very weak shocks (M - 1 << 1). Employing the state-of-the-art Vlasov-Fokker-Planck code, iFP, we describe the stratification for shocks with arbitrary mach number, and we rigorously delineate the kinetic and hydrodynamic regimes in terms of Mach number, relative species concentration, and ion species mass ratio - thereby clarifying the conditions under which significant departure from single-fluid hydrodynamics may occur.

  8. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  9. Social Stratification in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grodsky, Eric; Jackson, Erika

    2009-01-01

    Background/Context: Over the past half century, scholars in a variety of fields have contributed to our understanding of the relationship between higher education and social stratification. We review this literature, highlighting complementarities and inconsistencies. Purpose/Objective/Research Question/Focus of Study: We situate our review of the…

  10. Orderedness and Stratificational "and" Nodes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herrick, Earl M.

    It is possible to apply Lamb's stratificational theory and analysis to English graphonomy, but additional notation devices must be used to explain particular graphemes and their characteristics. The author presents cases where Lamb's notation is inadequate. In those cases, he devises new means for performing the analysis. The result of this…

  11. Material-based Stratification

    SciTech Connect

    MacQueen, D H

    2007-05-31

    A simple probability model was applied to detection sampling in a room or space in which different surface materials are present. The model assesses the overall detection capability when the sampling and analytical methods have different performance properties for the different materials. The results suggest that some common sampling strategies may not be ideal. In particular: (1) In a single room or area that includes different surface types with different detection properties, do not use a single sampling grid with a common spacing throughout. (2) If it is known or strongly suspected that one material has better detection properties than the other, place all samples on that material. (3) When it is completely unknown which material has the better detection properties, allocate the samples equally between them.

  12. Generating tsunami risk knowledge at community level as a base for planning and implementation of risk reduction strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wegscheider, S.; Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Muhari, A.; Anwar, H. Z.

    2011-02-01

    More than 4 million Indonesians live in tsunami-prone areas along the southern and western coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali. Although a Tsunami Early Warning Center in Jakarta now exists, installed after the devastating 2004 tsunami, it is essential to develop tsunami risk knowledge within the exposed communities as a basis for tsunami disaster management. These communities need to implement risk reduction strategies to mitigate potential consequences. The major aims of this paper are to present a risk assessment methodology which (1) identifies areas of high tsunami risk in terms of potential loss of life, (2) bridges the gaps between research and practical application, and (3) can be implemented at community level. High risk areas have a great need for action to improve people's response capabilities towards a disaster, thus reducing the risk. The methodology developed here is based on a GIS approach and combines hazard probability, hazard intensity, population density and people's response capability to assess the risk. Within the framework of the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project, the methodology was applied to three pilot areas, one of which is southern Bali. Bali's tourism is concentrated for a great part in the communities of Kuta, Legian and Seminyak. Here alone, about 20 000 people live in high and very high tsunami risk areas. The development of risk reduction strategies is therefore of significant interest. A risk map produced for the study area in Bali can be used for local planning activities and the development of risk reduction strategies.

  13. Social Stratification and Education in Industrial Countries

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bereday, George Z. F.

    1977-01-01

    Reviews the intersection of social stratification and schools, i.e., how stratification "shows up" in education. Assesses the responsibility and role of the school in creating a balance between the two forces. (Author/RK)

  14. A functional assay-based strategy for nanomaterial risk forecasting.

    PubMed

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Lowry, Gregory V; Unrine, Jason M; Wiesner, Mark R

    2015-12-01

    The study of nanomaterial impacts on environment, health and safety (nanoEHS) has been largely predicated on the assumption that exposure and hazard can be predicted from physical-chemical properties of nanomaterials. This approach is rooted in the view that nanoöbjects essentially resemble chemicals with additional particle-based attributes that must be included among their intrinsic physical-chemical descriptors. With the exception of the trivial case of nanomaterials made from toxic or highly reactive materials, this approach has yielded few actionable guidelines for predicting nanomaterial risk. This article addresses inherent problems in structuring a nanoEHS research strategy based on the goal of predicting outcomes directly from nanomaterial properties, and proposes a framework for organizing data and designing integrated experiments based on functional assays (FAs). FAs are intermediary, semi-empirical measures of processes or functions within a specified system that bridge the gap between nanomaterial properties and potential outcomes in complex systems. The three components of a functional assay are standardized protocols for parameter determination and reporting, a theoretical context for parameter application and reference systems. We propose the identification and adoption of reference systems where FAs may be applied to provide parameter estimates for environmental fate and effects models, as well as benchmarks for comparing the results of FAs and experiments conducted in more complex and varied systems. Surface affinity and dissolution rate are identified as two critical FAs for characterizing nanomaterial behavior in a variety of important systems. The use of these FAs to predict bioaccumulation and toxicity for initial and aged nanomaterials is illustrated for the case of silver nanoparticles and Caenorhabditis elegans.

  15. HPV DNA testing improves CIN2+ risk stratification and detection of CIN2+ in delayed triage of ASCUS and LSIL. A population-based follow-up study from Western Norway.

    PubMed

    Budal, Elisabeth B; Haugland, Hans K; Skar, Robert; Maehle, Bjørn O; Bjørge, Tone; Vintermyr, Olav K

    2014-02-01

    In Norway, Pap smears with atypical squamous cells of uncertain significance (ASCUS) and low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) are triaged after 6 months. The aim of the study was to evaluate effects of implementing human papillomavirus (HPV) test (2005) in delayed triage of ASCUS and LSIL in a cohort of women from Western Norway. After a survey of 119,469 cervical Pap smears during 2005-2007, a total of 1055 women with an index ASCUS or LSIL were included in the study and followed up for 3-6 years with respect to progression into cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+). Overall sensitivity for detection of CIN2+ with HPV testing and cytology was 96% and 72%, respectively. The sensitivity for detection of CIN2+ was not affected by age, but the specificity of the HPV test increased with age. Thus, for the age groups <34 years, 34-50 years, and >50 years, the specificity of a positive HPV test to detect CIN2+ was 47%, 71%, and 82%, respectively. Positive predictive values for CIN2+ in women with positive cytology, positive HPV test, negative cytology, negative HPV test, or negative HPV and cytology tests were 52%, 41%, 8%, 1.5%, and 0.4%, respectively. HPV testing resulted in a net 22% increased detection of CIN2+. Fifty-six percent of CIN2+ was detected at an earlier time point with HPV testing in triage. Implementation of HPV testing in delayed triage of ASCUS and LSIL improved the stratification of CIN2+ risk and increased CIN2+ detection and at an earlier time point than with triage by cytology alone.

  16. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies for risk communication and learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musacchio, Gemma; Amaral Ferreira, Mónica; Falsaperla, Susanna; Piangiamore, Giovanna Lucia; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Solarino, Stefano; Crescimbene, Massimo; Eva, Elena; Reitano, Danilo; Þorvaldsdottir, Solveig; Sousa Silva, Delta; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Sousa Oliveira, Carlos

    2016-04-01

    Damage of non-structural elements of buildings (i.e. partitions, ceilings, cladding, electrical and mechanical systems and furniture) is known to cause injuries and human losses. Also it has a significant impact on earthquake resilience and is yet being worldwide underestimated. The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. They were chosen because they are prone to damage level 2 and 3 (EMS-98, European Macroseismic Scale) that typically affects non-structural elements. We will develop and test a risk communication strategy taking into account the needs of households and schools, putting into practice a portfolio of best practice to reduce the most common non-structural vulnerabilities. We will target our actions to different societal groups, considering their cultural background and social vulnerabilities, and implement a participatory approach that will promote engagement and interaction between the scientific community, practitioners and citizens to foster knowledge on everyone's own neighborhoods, resilience and vulnerability. A Practical Guide for citizens will highlight that low-cost actions can be implemented to increase safety of households, meant as being the places where the most vulnerable societal groups, including children and elderly people, spend much of their time. Since our actions towards communication will include education, we will define tools that allow a clear and direct understanding of elements exposed to risk. Schools will be one of our target societal groups and their central role played at the community level will ensure spreading and strengthening of the communication process. Schools are often located in old or re-adapted buildings, formerly used for

  17. Liability-driven investing: an enterprise risk management strategy.

    PubMed

    Courson, William M

    2008-08-01

    Hospitals that understand their risks and how to address them, and can communicate thisto rating agencies, can improve their opportunities in the capital markets. Evaluating global risk requires that healthcare financial executives consider risks in the context of one another as well as the organization's overall strategic plan.

  18. Noninvasive strategies for the estimation of cardiac risk in stable chest pain patients. The Economics of Noninvasive Diagnosis (END) Study Group.

    PubMed

    Shaw, L J; Hachamovitch, R; Heller, G V; Marwick, T H; Travin, M I; Iskandrian, A E; Kesler, K; Lauer, M S; Hendel, R; Borges-Neto, S; Lewin, H C; Berman, D S; Miller, D

    2000-07-01

    Effective allocation of medical resources in stable chest pain patients requires the accurate diagnosis of coronary artery disease and the stratification of future cardiac risk. We studied the relative predictive value for cardiac death of 3 commonly applied noninvasive strategies, clinical assessment, stress electrocardiography, and myocardial perfusion tomography, in a large, multicenter population of stable angina patients. The multicenter observational series comprised 7 community and academic medical centers and 8,411 stable chest pain patients. All patients underwent pretest clinical screening followed by stress (exercise 84% or pharmacologic 16%) electrocardiography and myocardial perfusion tomography. Risk-adjusted multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict cardiac death. Kaplan-Meier rates of time to cardiac catheterization were also computed. Cardiac mortality was 3% during the 2.5 +/- 1.5 years of follow-up. The number of infarcted vascular territories and pretest clinical risk factors were strong predictors of cardiac mortality, whereas the number of ischemic vascular territories gained increasing importance when determining post-test resource use requirements (i.e., the decision to perform cardiac catheterization). Exertional ST-segment depression in a population with a high frequency of electrocardiographic abnormalities at rest was not a significant differentiator of cardiac death risk. Stable chest pain patients are accurately identified as being at high risk for near-term cardiac events by both physicians' screening clinical evaluation and by the results of stress myocardial perfusion imaging. Disease management strategies for stable chest pain patients aimed at risk reduction should incorporate knowledge of relevant end points in treatment and guideline development.

  19. Continuing Developments in PV Risk Management: Strategies, Solutions, and Implications

    SciTech Connect

    Lowder, T.; Mendelsohn, M.; Speer, B.; Hill, R.

    2013-02-01

    As the PV industry matures, successful risk management practices will become more imperative to ensure investor confidence, control costs, and facilitate further growth. This report discusses several key aspects of risk management during the commercial- and utility-scale project life cycle, from identification of risks, to the process of mitigating and allocating those risks among project parties, to transferring those risks through insurance. The report also explores novel techniques in PV risk management, options to offload risks onto the capital markets, and innovative insurance policies (namely warranty policies) that address risks unique to the PV sector. One of the major justifications for robust risk management in the PV industry is the cost-reduction opportunities it affords. If the PV industry can demonstrate the capability to successfully manage its risks, thereby inspiring confidence in financiers, it may be able to obtain a lower cost of capital in future transactions. A lower cost of capital translates to a lower cost of energy, which will in turn enhance PV?s competitiveness at a time when it will have to rely less on subsidies to support its market penetration.

  20. Ontological Stratification in an Ecology of Infohabitants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abramov, V. A.; Goossenaerts, J. B. M.; de Wilde, P.; Correia, L.

    This paper reports progress from the EEII research project where ontological stratification is applied in the study of openness. We explain a stratification approach to reduce the overall complexity of conceptual models, and to enhance their modularity. A distinction is made between ontological and epistemological stratification. The application of the stratification approach to agent system design is explained and illustrated. A preliminary characterization of the relevant strata is given. The wider relevance of this result for information infrastructure design is addressed: ontological stratification will be key to the model management and semantic interoperability in a ubiquitous and model driven information infrastructure.

  1. Emotion regulation strategies and childhood obesity in high risk preschoolers

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The current study examined the relationships between the specific strategies that preschool children use to regulate their emotions and childhood weight status to see if emotion regulation strategies would predict childhood weight status over and above measures of eating self-regulation. 185 4- to 5...

  2. Systemic Immunomodulatory Strategies in High-risk Corneal Transplantation

    PubMed Central

    Abud, Tulio B.; Di Zazzo, Antonio; Kheirkhah, Ahmad; Dana, Reza

    2017-01-01

    The cornea is the most commonly transplanted tissue in the body. Although corneal grafts generally have high success rates, transplantation onto inflamed and vascularized host beds, or so-called high-risk corneal transplantation, has a high rate of graft rejection. The management of this high-risk corneal transplantation is challenging and involves numerous measures. One of the key measures to prevent graft rejection in these cases is the use of systemic immunosuppressive agents. In this article, we will review the systemic immunosuppressive agents most commonly used for high-risk corneal transplantation, which include corticosteroids, cysclosporine A, tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and rapamycin. Benefits, risks, and published data on the use of these medications for high-risk corneal transplantation will be detailed. We will also summarize novel immunoregulatory approaches that may be used to prevent graft rejection in high-risk corneal transplantation. PMID:28299010

  3. Systemic Immunomodulatory Strategies in High-risk Corneal Transplantation.

    PubMed

    Abud, Tulio B; Di Zazzo, Antonio; Kheirkhah, Ahmad; Dana, Reza

    2017-01-01

    The cornea is the most commonly transplanted tissue in the body. Although corneal grafts generally have high success rates, transplantation onto inflamed and vascularized host beds, or so-called high-risk corneal transplantation, has a high rate of graft rejection. The management of this high-risk corneal transplantation is challenging and involves numerous measures. One of the key measures to prevent graft rejection in these cases is the use of systemic immunosuppressive agents. In this article, we will review the systemic immunosuppressive agents most commonly used for high-risk corneal transplantation, which include corticosteroids, cysclosporine A, tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and rapamycin. Benefits, risks, and published data on the use of these medications for high-risk corneal transplantation will be detailed. We will also summarize novel immunoregulatory approaches that may be used to prevent graft rejection in high-risk corneal transplantation.

  4. Human Health Risk Assessment Research Strategy. External Review Draft.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-02-01

    magnitude greater than the environmental exposure for which estimates of risk are 5 being made, as well as from test animals to humans. The uncertainties in...such extrapolations are 6 considerable and represent major problems facing the risk assessor. 7 Extrapolation from animal data to estimate human...risks involves a variety of assumptions 8 about interspecies differences between animals and humans. 9 Extrapolation from high to low dose from either

  5. Cancer Stratification by Molecular Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Weber, Justus; Haberkorn, Uwe; Mier, Walter

    2015-01-01

    The lack of specificity of traditional cytotoxic drugs has triggered the development of anticancer agents that selectively address specific molecular targets. An intrinsic property of these specialized drugs is their limited applicability for specific patient subgroups. Consequently, the generation of information about tumor characteristics is the key to exploit the potential of these drugs. Currently, cancer stratification relies on three approaches: Gene expression analysis and cancer proteomics, immunohistochemistry and molecular imaging. In order to enable the precise localization of functionally expressed targets, molecular imaging combines highly selective biomarkers and intense signal sources. Thus, cancer stratification and localization are performed simultaneously. Many cancer types are characterized by altered receptor expression, such as somatostatin receptors, folate receptors or Her2 (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2). Similar correlations are also known for a multitude of transporters, such as glucose transporters, amino acid transporters or hNIS (human sodium iodide symporter), as well as cell specific proteins, such as the prostate specific membrane antigen, integrins, and CD20. This review provides a comprehensive description of the methods, targets and agents used in molecular imaging, to outline their application for cancer stratification. Emphasis is placed on radiotracers which are used to identify altered expression patterns of cancer associated markers. PMID:25749472

  6. Risk Assessment Strategies and Techniques for Combined Exposures

    EPA Science Inventory

    Author: Cynthia V. Rider, Ph.D., and Jane Ellen Simmons, Ph.D.Abstract: Consideration of cumulative risk is necessary to evaluate properly the safety of, and the risks associated with, combined exposures. These combined exposures ("mixtures") commonly occur from exposure to: envi...

  7. Risk definition and management strategies in retinoblastoma: current perspectives

    PubMed Central

    Ghassemi, Fariba; Khodabande, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    This manuscript focuses on high-risk factors of metastatic disease in retinoblastoma and evaluation of the current treatments of retinoblastoma. Presence of histopathologic high-risk factors is associated with a higher risk of local recurrence and systemic metastasis. Currently, globe-sparing therapies, including systemic chemotherapy, intra-arterial chemoreduction, intravitreal chemotherapy, focal consolidation, and combination therapies, are being used and investigated actively. Major advances are being made in the diagnosis and management of retinoblastoma that will lead to improved morbidity and mortality rates in patients with retinoblastoma. By saving the globes, fronting with some high-risk factors for metastasis would be inevitable. International multi-institutional prospective studies could resolve current uncertainties regarding the main tumor treatment regimens for each patient and indications for chemoprophylaxis for high-risk-factor-bearing retinoblastoma cases. PMID:26089630

  8. [Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    PubMed

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

    2011-10-01

    The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

  9. [Therapeutic Strategies. Cardiovascular risk and dyslipidemia in elderly and women].

    PubMed

    Morales, Clotilde; Royuela, Meritxell

    2013-01-01

    The management of cardiovascular risk and dyslipidemia are justified in guidelines. In the elderly, when they are in primary prevention, recommendations are controversial, even if there is evidence in reducing morbidity. In secondary prevention, between 65 and 85 years, there is enough evidence to recommend statins. The decision to start or to continue further treatment must be complemented by comprehensive assessment of the risk-benefit factor. In elderly patients we have to support in decision-making, we take clinical judgment and not just the age criteria. In women the risk is underestimated and may be untreated. The recomendations are the same as in men. During pregnancy there are particular recommendations.

  10. Risk Assessment of Heating, Ventilating, and Air-Conditioning Strategies in Low-Load Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Poerschke, Andrew

    2016-02-01

    These simulations enabled IBACOS to identify which strategies work best for particular climate zones or house geometries and to propose solutions that homebuilders can implement to reduce the risk of occupant discomfort in individual rooms.

  11. Utility of Procalcitonin (PCT) and Mid regional pro-Adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) in risk stratification of critically ill febrile patients in Emergency Department (ED). A comparison with APACHE II score

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    hospitalization of febrile patients. The rational use of these two molecules could lead to several advantages, such as faster diagnosis, more accurate risk stratification, and optimization of the treatment, with consequent benefit to the patient and considerably reduced costs. PMID:22874067

  12. Chemical stratification of the mantle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, D. L.

    1979-01-01

    A possible scenario for the chemical stratification of the earth's mantle is presented. Differentiation of the mantle by either the production of basaltic magmas or partial melting by the upper mantle is proposed to lead to a thick basalt layer, the lower part of which is converted to eclogite as the earth cools. Density estimates indicate that the eclogite formed would not be able to sink to below 670 km. The eclogite layer is thus demonstrated to be trapped as a result of whole-mantle convection and possible irreversible differentiation of the mantle into eclogite and overlying residual peridotite layers.

  13. Applying optimal model selection in principal stratification for causal inference.

    PubMed

    Odondi, Lang'o; McNamee, Roseanne

    2013-05-20

    Noncompliance to treatment allocation is a key source of complication for causal inference. Efficacy estimation is likely to be compounded by the presence of noncompliance in both treatment arms of clinical trials where the intention-to-treat estimate provides a biased estimator for the true causal estimate even under homogeneous treatment effects assumption. Principal stratification method has been developed to address such posttreatment complications. The present work extends a principal stratification method that adjusts for noncompliance in two-treatment arms trials by developing model selection for covariates predicting compliance to treatment in each arm. We apply the method to analyse data from the Esprit study, which was conducted to ascertain whether unopposed oestrogen (hormone replacement therapy) reduced the risk of further cardiac events in postmenopausal women who survive a first myocardial infarction. We adjust for noncompliance in both treatment arms under a Bayesian framework to produce causal risk ratio estimates for each principal stratum. For mild values of a sensitivity parameter and using separate predictors of compliance in each arm, principal stratification results suggested that compliance with hormone replacement therapy only would reduce the risk for death and myocardial reinfarction by about 47% and 25%, respectively, whereas compliance with either treatment would reduce the risk for death by 13% and reinfarction by 60% among the most compliant. However, the results were sensitive to the user-defined sensitivity parameter.

  14. Effective Poster Teaching Strategy Towards Risk in Studying Fraud

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aziz, Rozainun Haji Abdul; Jusoff, Kamaruzaman

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present an alternative method and strategy in teaching and learning for the higher institution of learning. Poster presentation is an approach to introduce and deliver a lecture to create a different mood enticed by the visuals given. This poster presents a new approach of creativity as a method of teaching and learning…

  15. Corrective Strategies in Reading for At-Risk Community College Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yevoli, Carole

    Focusing on corrective strategies for improving reading skills of at-risk community college students, this document reviews the history of such strategies, highlights current efforts, and assesses future needs. The first section traces the history of remedial reading programs at community colleges, beginning with small individualized sections…

  16. Risks Associated With Lentiviral Vector Exposures and Prevention Strategies.

    PubMed

    Schlimgen, Ryan; Howard, John; Wooley, Dawn; Thompson, Maureen; Baden, Lindsey R; Yang, Otto O; Christiani, David C; Mostoslavsky, Gustavo; Diamond, David V; Duane, Elizabeth Gilman; Byers, Karen; Winters, Thomas; Gelfand, Jeffrey A; Fujimoto, Gary; Hudson, T Warner; Vyas, Jatin M

    2016-12-01

    Lentiviral vectors (LVVs) are powerful genetic tools that are being used with greater frequency in biomedical laboratories and clinical trials. Adverse events reported from initial clinical studies provide a basis for risk assessment of occupational exposures, yet many questions remain about the potential harm that LVVs may cause. We review those risks and provide a framework for principal investigators, Institutional Biosafety Committees, and occupational health professionals to assess and communicate the risks of exposure to staff. We also provide recommendations to federal research and regulatory agencies for tracking LVV exposures to evaluate long-term outcomes. U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved antiviral drugs for HIV have theoretical benefits in LVV exposures, although evidence to support their use is currently limited. If treatment is appropriate, we recommend a 7-day treatment with an integrase inhibitor with or without a reverse transcriptase inhibitor within 72 hours of exposure.

  17. Risks Associated With Lentiviral Vector Exposures and Prevention Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Schlimgen, Ryan; Howard, John; Wooley, Dawn; Thompson, Maureen; Baden, Lindsey R.; Yang, Otto O.; Christiani, David C.; Mostoslavsky, Gustavo; Diamond, David V.; Duane, Elizabeth Gilman; Byers, Karen; Winters, Thomas; Gelfand, Jeffrey A.; Fujimoto, Gary; Hudson, T. Warner; Vyas, Jatin M.

    2016-01-01

    Lentiviral vectors (LVVs) are powerful genetic tools that are being used with greater frequency in biomedical laboratories and clinical trials. Adverse events reported from initial clinical studies provide a basis for risk assessment of occupational exposures, yet many questions remain about the potential harm that LVVs may cause. We review those risks and provide a framework for principal investigators, Institutional Biosafety Committees, and occupational health professionals to assess and communicate the risks of exposure to staff. We also provide recommendations to federal research and regulatory agencies for tracking LVV exposures to evaluate long-term outcomes. U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved antiviral drugs for HIV have theoretical benefits in LVV exposures, although evidence to support their use is currently limited. If treatment is appropriate, we recommend a 7-day treatment with an integrase inhibitor with or without a reverse transcriptase inhibitor within 72 hours of exposure. PMID:27930472

  18. One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishiyama, N.

    2001-12-01

    Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

  19. Worksite Follow-Up and Engagement Strategies for Initiating Health Risk Behavior Changes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gregg, Walter; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Employees of four manufacturing plants who were at risk because of high blood pressure, obesity, or smoking were periodically contacted by wellness counselors. Over a three-year period, seven strategies for behavior change were used. High blood pressure clients were most likely to begin risk reduction actions. Frequency of followup showed positive…

  20. Risk Factors and Prevention Strategies for Suicide among the Elderly

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Franks, Rebecca; Burnett, Donna O.; Evans, Retta R.

    2012-01-01

    Suicide is a preventable public health concern affecting the nation as the 10th leading cause of death. The prevalence of suicide among the elderly is higher than any other group. Risk factors attributed to this phenomenon are depression, social isolation, substance abuse, poor physical health or function, financial stress, and access to lethal…

  1. Road Rage: Risk Factors, Assessment, and Intervention Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharkin, Bruce S.

    2004-01-01

    Incidents of angry and aggressive driving, often referred to as "road rage," are becoming more and more commonplace in everyday driving. Many people might benefit from counseling interventions to help manage driving anger and aggression. This article provides a review of research on road rage risk factors, a description of inventories for…

  2. New Strategies for Managing Risks: A Balancing Act for Boards

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pelletier, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    The stately collegiate gothic buildings that define the iconic West Campus at Duke University evoke a strong sense of stability and the status quo. Like all institutions of higher learning, Duke faces many potential challenges to campus equilibrium--some of which could prove devastating to the university. Risk is inherent in academe, yet colleges…

  3. Street Crossings: Analyzing Risks, Developing Strategies, and Making Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sauerburger, Dona

    2005-01-01

    This article proposes an approach to teaching street crossing to students who are visually impaired that considers the risks, ambiguity, and complexity of today's intersections. Thirty or 40 years ago, street crossing was a straightforward task for travelers with visual impairments (that is, those who are blind or have low vision). The…

  4. Environmentally Mediated Risks for Psychopathology: Research Strategies and Findings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rutter, Michael

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To consider the research design requirements needed to provide a rigorous test of environmental mediation hypotheses and to summarize the main findings from research using such designs. Method: Selective review of empirical evidence dealing with psychopathology. Results: There is robust evidence of environmentally mediated risks for…

  5. Child Pedestrian Injury: A Review of Behavioral Risks and Preventive Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Schwebel, David C.; Davis, Aaron L.; O’Neal, Elizabeth E.

    2011-01-01

    Pedestrian injury is among the leading causes of pediatric death in the United States and much of the world. This paper is divided into two sections. First, we review the literature on behavioral risk factors for child injury. Cognitive and perceptual development risks are discussed. The roles of distraction, temperament and personality, and social influences from parents and peers are presented. We conclude the first section with brief reviews of environmental risks, pedestrian safety among special populations, and the role of sleep and fatigue on pediatric pedestrian safety. The second section of the review considers child pedestrian injury prevention strategies. Categorized by mode of presentation, we discuss parent instruction strategies, school-based instruction strategies (including crossing guards), and streetside training techniques. Technology-based training strategies using video, internet, and virtual reality are reviewed. We conclude the section on prevention with discussion of community-based interventions. PMID:23066380

  6. Modifying Risk Factors: Strategies That Work Diabetes Mellitus.

    PubMed

    Stryker, Louis S

    2016-08-01

    An estimated 29.1 million Americans are currently diagnosed with diabetes, and this number is expected to increase to 48.3 million Americans by 2050. Correspondingly, the present burden of diabetes among patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty is significant and rising. Diabetes as a chronic condition is a well-established risk factor for complication after total joint arthroplasty. A growing body of evidence also indicates that hyperglycemia in the perioperative period, and not the diagnosis of diabetes alone, is similarly associated with increased complication risk. As a result, a coordinated approach to preoperative screening and optimization, combined with judicious perioperative glycemic control, may present an opportunity to improve outcomes, reduce complications, and avoid complication-related costs for patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty.

  7. Parent birds assess nest predation risk and adjust their reproductive strategies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fontaine, J.J.; Martin, T.E.

    2006-01-01

    Avian life history theory has long assumed that nest predation plays a minor role in shaping reproductive strategies. Yet, this assumption remains conspicuously untested by broad experiments that alter environmental risk of nest predation, despite the fact that nest predation is a major source of reproductive failure. Here, we examined whether parents can assess experimentally reduced nest predation risk and alter their reproductive strategies. We experimentally reduced nest predation risk and show that in safer environments parents increased investment in young through increased egg size, clutch mass, and the rate they fed nestlings. Parents also increased investment in female condition by increasing the rates that males fed incubating females at the nest, and decreasing the time that females spent incubating. These results demonstrate that birds can assess nest predation risk at large and that nest predation plays a key role in the expression of avian reproductive strategies. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  8. Evaluation of Risk Management Strategies for a Low-Cost, High-Risk Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shishko, Robert; Jorgensen, Edward J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper summarizes work in progress to define and implement a risk management process tailored to a low-cost, high-risk, NASA mission -the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX, commonly called the Mars microrover).

  9. Blood doping: risks to athletes' health and strategies for detection.

    PubMed

    Oliveira, Carolina Dizioli Rodrigues de; Bairros, André Valle de; Yonamine, Mauricio

    2014-07-01

    Blood doping has been defined as the misuse of substances or certain techniques to optimize oxygen delivery to muscles with the aim to increase performance in sports activities. It includes blood transfusion, administration of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents or blood substitutes, and gene manipulations. The main reasons for the widespread use of blood doping include: its availability for athletes (erythropoiesis-stimulating agents and blood transfusions), its efficiency in improving performance, and its difficult detection. This article reviews and discusses the blood doping substances and methods used for in sports, the adverse effects related to this practice, and current strategies for its detection.

  10. Low-cost risk reduction strategy for small workplaces: how can we spread good practices?

    PubMed

    Kogi, K

    2006-01-01

    Recent advances in health risk reduction approaches are examined based on inter-country networking experiences. A noteworthy progress is the wider application of low-cost improvements to risk reduction particularly in small enterprises and agriculture in both industrially developing and developed countries. This is helped by the readiness of managers and workers to implement these improvements despite many constraints. Typical improvements include mobile racks, simple workstation changes, screening hazards, better welfare facilities and teamwork arrangements. In view of the complex circumstances of work-related health risks, it is important to know whether a low-cost strategy can advance risk reduction practices effectively and what support measures are necessary. It is confirmed that the strategy can overcome related constraints through its advantages. Main advantages lie in (a) the facilitation of improved practices in multiple technical areas, (b) the strengthening of realistic stepwise risk reduction, and (c) the enhanced multiplier effects through training of local trainers. Action-oriented risk assessment tools, such as action checklists and low-cost improvement guides, can encourage risk-reducing measures adjusted to each local situation. It is suggested to spread the low-cost risk reduction strategy for improving small workplaces in diversified settings with the support of these locally tailored tools.

  11. Science and strategies to reduce mercury risks: a critical review.

    PubMed

    Selin, Noelle E

    2011-09-01

    Despite decades of scientific research and policy actions to control mercury, exposure to toxic methylmercury continues to pose risks to humans and the environment. This article critically reviews the linkages between scientific advancements and mercury reduction policies aimed at reducing this risk, focusing on the challenges that mercury poses as an issue that crosses both spatial and temporal scales. Scientific aspects of the mercury issue at various spatial and temporal scales are reviewed, and policy examples at global, national and local scale are analysed. Policy activity to date has focused on the mercury problem at a single level of spatial scale, and on near-term timescales. Efforts at the local scale have focused on monitoring levels in fish and addressing local contamination issues; national-scale assessments have addressed emissions from particular sources; and global-scale reports have integrated long-range transport of emissions and commercial trade concerns. However, aspects of the mercury issue that cross the political scale (such as interactions between different forms of mercury) as well as contamination problems with long timescales are at present beyond the reach of current policies. It is argued that these unaddressed aspects of the mercury problem may be more effectively addressed by (1) expanded cross-scale policy coordination on mitigation actions and (2) better incorporating adaptation into policy decision-making to minimize impacts.

  12. Computational strategies for predicting the potential risks associated with nanotechnology.

    PubMed

    Barnard, Amanda S

    2009-10-01

    For the move from nanoscience to nanotechnology to be sustainable, it is important that the issues surrounding possible 'nano-hazards' be addressed before commercialization. The global push for more environmentally friendly, biodegradable products, means the introduction of the nanoparticles contained within these products into the ecosystem is an inevitability. When this happens, it is desirable to know how the hazardous properties may be affected, and what the potential hazards are. In this article, a number of strategies will be discussed, combining the desirable aspects of theory, simulation, experiment and observation, and leading to predictions for incorporation into preventative frameworks. Particular attention will be given to the role of theory and computation, and how it intersects with the participants from complementary fields.

  13. Stable density stratification solar pond

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lansing, F. L. (Inventor)

    1985-01-01

    A stable density-stratification solar pond for use in the collection and storage of solar thermal energy including a container having a first section characterized by an internal wall of a substantially cylindrical configuration and a second section having an internal wall of a substantially truncated conical configuration surmounting the first section in coaxial alignment therewith, the second section of said container being characterized by a base of a diameter substantially equal to the diameter of the first section and a truncated apex defining a solar energy acceptance opening is discussed. A body of immiscible liquids is disposed within the container and comprises a lower portion substantially filling the first section of the container and an upper portion substantially filling the second section of the container, said lower portion being an aqueous based liquid of a darker color than the upper portion and of a greater density. A protective cover plate is removably provided for covering the acceptance opening.

  14. Community strategies to improve flood risk communication in the Red River Basin, Manitoba, Canada.

    PubMed

    Stewart, Robert M; Rashid, Harun

    2011-07-01

    More than a decade after the 1997 Red River Flood, vulnerability to future flooding exists due to a lack of risk communication. This study identifies risk communication gaps and discusses the creation of strategies to enhance information-sharing, bottom-up activity and partnership development. The objectives were achieved using mixed methods, including interviews, a floodplain-wide survey, and a decision-makers' risk management workshop. The results highlight a number of external pressures exerted by regional floodplain policies and procedures that restrict risk communication and affect social vulnerability in the rural floodplain. The failures of a top-down approach to floodplain management have impacted on communities' abilities to address floodplain risks, have amplified local risks, and have decreased community cooperation in floodplain management initiatives since the 1997 'Flood of the Century'. Recommended policies promote the establishment of community standards to compensate for gaps in risk communication and the development of partnerships between floodplain communities.

  15. Traceability and Risk Analysis Strategies for Addressing Counterfeit Electronics in Supply Chains for Complex Systems.

    PubMed

    DiMase, Daniel; Collier, Zachary A; Carlson, Jinae; Gray, Robin B; Linkov, Igor

    2016-10-01

    Within the microelectronics industry, there is a growing concern regarding the introduction of counterfeit electronic parts into the supply chain. Even though this problem is widespread, there have been limited attempts to implement risk-based approaches for testing and supply chain management. Supply chain risk management tends to focus on the highly visible disruptions of the supply chain instead of the covert entrance of counterfeits; thus counterfeit risk is difficult to mitigate. This article provides an overview of the complexities of the electronics supply chain, and highlights some gaps in risk assessment practices. In particular, this article calls for enhanced traceability capabilities to track and trace parts at risk through various stages of the supply chain. Placing the focus on risk-informed decision making through the following strategies is needed, including prioritization of high-risk parts, moving beyond certificates of conformance, incentivizing best supply chain management practices, adoption of industry standards, and design and management for supply chain resilience.

  16. Development of a modified prognostic index of patients with aggressive adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma aged 70 years or younger: a possible risk-adapted management strategies including allogeneic transplantation.

    PubMed

    Fuji, Shigeo; Yamaguchi, Takuhiro; Inoue, Yoshitaka; Utsunomiya, Atae; Moriuchi, Yukiyoshi; Uchimaru, Kaoru; Owatari, Satsuki; Miyagi, Takashi; Taguchi, Jun; Choi, Ilseung; Otsuka, Eiichi; Nakachi, Sawako; Yamamoto, Hisashi; Kurosawa, Saiko; Tobinai, Kensei; Fukuda, Takahiro

    2017-03-24

    Adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma is a distinct type of peripheral T-cell lymphoma caused by human T-cell lymphotropic virus type I. Although allogeneic stem cell transplantation after chemotherapy is a recommended treatment option for patients with aggressive adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma, there is no consensus about indications for allogeneic stem cell transplantation because there is no established risk stratification system for transplant eligible patients. We conducted a nationwide survey of patients with aggressive adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma to construct a new large database that includes 1,792 patients aged 70 years or younger with aggressive adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma who were diagnosed between 2000 and 2013 and received intensive first-line chemotherapy. We randomly divided patients into two groups (training and validation sets). Acute type, poor performance status, high soluble interleukin-2 receptor level (> 5,000 U/mL), high adjusted calcium level (≥ 12 mg/dL), and high C-reactive protein level (≥ 2.5 mg/dL) were independent adverse prognostic factors using the training set. We used these five variables to divide patients into three risk groups. In the validation set, medial overall survival was 626 days, 322 days, and 197 days for the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively. In the intermediate- and high-risk groups, transplanted recipients had significantly better overall survival than non-transplanted patients. We developed a new promising risk stratification system to identify patients aged 70 years or younger with aggressive adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma who may benefit from upfront allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Prospective studies are warranted to confirm the benefit of this treatment strategy.

  17. Meningococcal disease: risk for international travellers and vaccine strategies.

    PubMed

    Wilder-Smith, Annelies

    2008-07-01

    International travel and migration facilitate the rapid intercontinental spread of meningococcal disease. Serogroup A and, less so serogroup C, have been responsible for epidemics in the past (mainly in Africa). In recent years, W135 has emerged (first in Saudi Arabia, then in West Africa) as a serogroup that requires attention. Serogroups X and Y are infrequent, but associated with slowly rising trends. There are significant variations in the incidence of meningococcal disease and the distribution of serogroups responsible for meningococcal disease, both geographically and with time. Vaccine strategies need to address this variation, and broad coverage against all serogroups for which vaccines are currently available should be offered to travellers. Tetravalent polysaccharide meningococcal vaccines are limited by their poor immunogenicity in small infants and by the lack of long-term protection. In contrast, the novel tetravalent conjugate vaccine that is currently only available in North America is immunogenic in young infants, induces long-term protection and reduces nasopharyngeal carriage. The tetravalent conjugate meningococcal vaccine will be a leap forward in the control of meningococcal epidemics in affected countries. It will also boost the uptake of meningococcal vaccines in travellers because the duration of protection is longer and it eliminates the problem of immune hyporesponsiveness of serogroup C with repeated dosing. Current vaccine recommendations are to vaccinate all Hajj pilgrims, all travellers to areas with current outbreaks, travellers to the SubSaharan meningitis belt, and individuals with certain medical conditions.

  18. The efficiency of asset management strategies to reduce urban flood risk.

    PubMed

    ten Veldhuis, J A E; Clemens, F H L R

    2011-01-01

    In this study, three asset management strategies were compared with respect to their efficiency to reduce flood risk. Data from call centres at two municipalities were used to quantify urban flood risks associated with three causes of urban flooding: gully pot blockage, sewer pipe blockage and sewer overloading. The efficiency of three flood reduction strategies was assessed based on their effect on the causes contributing to flood risk. The sensitivity of the results to uncertainty in the data source, citizens' calls, was analysed through incorporation of uncertainty ranges taken from customer complaint literature. Based on the available data it could be shown that increasing gully pot blockage is the most efficient action to reduce flood risk, given data uncertainty. If differences between cause incidences are large, as in the presented case study, call data are sufficient to decide how flood risk can be most efficiently reduced. According to the results of this analysis, enlargement of sewer pipes is not an efficient strategy to reduce flood risk, because flood risk associated with sewer overloading is small compared to other failure mechanisms.

  19. Decision analytic strategies for integrating ecosystem services and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    von Stackelberg, Katherine E

    2013-04-01

    Ecosystem services as a concept and guiding principle are enjoying wide popularity and endorsement from high-level policy thinkers to industry as support for sustainability goals continue to grow. However, explicit incorporation of ecosystem services into decision making still lacks practical implementation at more local scales and faces significant regulatory and technical constraints. Risk assessment represents an example of a regulatory process for which guidance exists that makes it challenging to incorporate ecosystem service endpoints. Technical constraints exist in the quantification of the relationships between ecological functions and services and endpoints valued by humans, and the complexity of those interactions with respect to bundling and stacking. In addition, ecosystem services, by their very definition, represent an anthropogenic construct with no inherent ecological value, which, in practical terms, requires a far more inclusionary decision making process explicitly incorporating a greater diversity of stakeholder values. Despite these constraints, it is possible, given a commitment to sustainable decision making, to simplify the process based on strategic outcomes (e.g., identifying desired end-states in general terms). Decision analytic techniques provide a mechanism for evaluating tradeoffs across key ecosystem services valued by stakeholders and to develop criteria drawn from the entire spectrum of stakeholders in evaluating potential alternatives. This article highlights several examples of ways in which ecosystem service endpoints can be incorporated into the decision-making process.

  20. Stratification of complexity in congenital heart surgery: comparative study of the Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) method, Aristotle basic score and Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio- Thoracic Surgery (STS-EACTS) mortality score

    PubMed Central

    Cavalcanti, Paulo Ernando Ferraz; Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros de Oliveira; dos Santos, Cecília Andrade; Esmeraldo, Isaac Melo; Chaves, Mariana Leal; Lins, Ricardo Felipe de Albuquerque; Lima, Ricardo de Carvalho

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine whether stratification of complexity models in congenital heart surgery (RACHS-1, Aristotle basic score and STS-EACTS mortality score) fit to our center and determine the best method of discriminating hospital mortality. Methods Surgical procedures in congenital heart diseases in patients under 18 years of age were allocated to the categories proposed by the stratification of complexity methods currently available. The outcome hospital mortality was calculated for each category from the three models. Statistical analysis was performed to verify whether the categories presented different mortalities. The discriminatory ability of the models was determined by calculating the area under the ROC curve and a comparison between the curves of the three models was performed. Results 360 patients were allocated according to the three methods. There was a statistically significant difference between the mortality categories: RACHS-1 (1) - 1.3%, (2) - 11.4%, (3)-27.3%, (4) - 50 %, (P<0.001); Aristotle basic score (1) - 1.1%, (2) - 12.2%, (3) - 34%, (4) - 64.7%, (P<0.001); and STS-EACTS mortality score (1) - 5.5 %, (2) - 13.6%, (3) - 18.7%, (4) - 35.8%, (P<0.001). The three models had similar accuracy by calculating the area under the ROC curve: RACHS-1- 0.738; STS-EACTS-0.739; Aristotle- 0.766. Conclusion The three models of stratification of complexity currently available in the literature are useful with different mortalities between the proposed categories with similar discriminatory capacity for hospital mortality. PMID:26107445

  1. Market Efficiency and the Risks and Returns of Dynamic Trading Strategies with Commodity Futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Switzer, Lorne N.; Jiang, Hui

    This paper investigates relationships between profits from dynamic trading strategies, risk premium, convenience yields, and net hedging pressures for commodity futures. As a market efficiency study, it crosses a number of disciplines, including traditional finance, behavioral finance, and behavioral psychology. The term structure of oil, gold, copper and soybeans futures markets contains predictive power for the corresponding term premium. However, only oil futures and soybean futures lead their spot premium. Significant momentum profits are identified in both outright futures and spread trading strategies when the spot premium and the term premium are used to form winner and loser portfolios. Profits from active strategies based on winner and loser portfolios are conditioned on market structure and net hedging pressure effects. Dynamic trading strategies based on contracts with extreme backwardation, extreme contango, and extreme hedging pressures are also tested. On average, spread trading outperforms outright futures trading in capturing the term structure risk and hedging pressure risk. For such strategies, long-short the long-term spread offers the greatest and most significant return and it offers the only exploitable trading profits built on the past hedging pressure. The existence of profits from active trading strategies based on winners is consistent with behavioral finance and behavioral psychology models in which market participants irrationally overreact to information and trends.

  2. Prognostic stratification in the treatment of AML.

    PubMed

    Asou, Norio

    Current treatment of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) still relies on intensive chemotherapy and allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). AML is a heterogeneous neoplasm characterized by distinct chromosomal and genetic abnormalities. Recent comprehensive gene analyses have highlighted distinct genetic subgroups that are associated with different responses to chemotherapy. Therefore, the molecular landscape of AML is fundamental to the development of novel therapeutic approaches and provides opportunities for individualization of therapy. In addition, the age-related incidence of clonal hematopoiesis is high, affecting nearly 10% of healthy people more than 65 years of age. Clonal hematopoiesis is confirmed by the presence of mutations related to AML including genes involved in DNA methylation, chromatin modification and RNA splicing. In the analysis of gene mutation profiles in secondary AML (s-AML) from myelodysplastic syndromes and myeloproliferative neoplasms, secondary-type gene mutations were identified with >95% specificity in s-AML as compared with de novo AML, including RNA splicing, chromatin modification and cohesion complex genes, and were highly associated with poor responses to chemotherapy as well as TP53 mutation. It is important to identify genetic subgroups at relatively high-risk of relapses who should receive allogeneic HSCT during the first remission. In this review, prognostic stratification for individualized treatment of AML is discussed.

  3. Mud Pit Risk-Based Closure Strategy Report, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, Revision 0

    SciTech Connect

    Brain Hoenes

    2004-08-01

    This report presents the findings of the human and ecological risk assessment for the NTS mud pits. The risk assessment utilizes data from 52 of the 270 NTS mud pits in conjunction with corroborative data from 87 other DOE mud pits associated with nuclear testing (at locations on the NTS, in the western United States, and Alaska) as well as relevant process knowledge. Based on the risk assessment findings, the report provides a strategy for further evaluation, characterization, and closure of all 270 NTS mud pit CASs using the Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration (SAFER).

  4. Vision and falls in older people: risk factors and intervention strategies.

    PubMed

    Lord, Stephen R; Smith, Stuart T; Menant, Jasmine C

    2010-11-01

    Poor vision impairs balance and increases the risk of falls and fractures in older people. Multifocal glasses can add to this risk by impairing contrast sensitivity, depth perception, and ability to negotiate obstacles. Vision assessment and provision of new spectacles may not reduce, and may even increase, the risk of falls. Restriction of the use of multifocal glasses may reduce falls in active older people. Other effective fall prevention strategies include maximizing vision through cataract surgery and occupational therapy interventions in visually impaired older people.

  5. Fundamental Interactions in Gasoline Compression Ignition Engines with Fuel Stratification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolk, Benjamin Matthew

    Transportation accounted for 28% of the total U.S. energy demand in 2011, with 93% of U.S. transportation energy coming from petroleum. The large impact of the transportation sector on global climate change necessitates more-efficient, cleaner-burning internal combustion engine operating strategies. One such strategy that has received substantial research attention in the last decade is Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI). Although the efficiency and emissions benefits of HCCI are well established, practical limits on the operating range of HCCI engines have inhibited their application in consumer vehicles. One such limit is at high load, where the pressure rise rate in the combustion chamber becomes excessively large. Fuel stratification is a potential strategy for reducing the maximum pressure rise rate in HCCI engines. The aim is to introduce reactivity gradients through fuel stratification to promote sequential auto-ignition rather than a bulk-ignition, as in the homogeneous case. A gasoline-fueled compression ignition engine with fuel stratification is termed a Gasoline Compression Ignition (GCI) engine. Although a reasonable amount of experimental research has been performed for fuel stratification in GCI engines, a clear understanding of how the fundamental in-cylinder processes of fuel spray evaporation, mixing, and heat release contribute to the observed phenomena is lacking. Of particular interest is gasoline's pressure sensitive low-temperature chemistry and how it impacts the sequential auto-ignition of the stratified charge. In order to computationally study GCI with fuel stratification using three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and chemical kinetics, two reduced mechanisms have been developed. The reduced mechanisms were developed from a large, detailed mechanism with about 1400 species for a 4-component gasoline surrogate. The two versions of the reduced mechanism developed in this work are: (1) a 96-species version and (2

  6. Early Adolescent Health Risk Behaviors, Conflict Resolution Strategies, and School Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    LaRusso, Maria; Selman, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Drawing upon an ethnically and socio-economically diverse sample of 323 7th grade students from twelve urban schools within one school district, this mixed method study examined early adolescents' self-reported health risk behaviors as related to their conflict resolution strategies and their school's conflict resolution climate. Survey data…

  7. Exploring Young Children's Understanding of Risks Associated with Internet Usage and Their Concepts of Management Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ey, Lesley-Anne; Cupit, C. Glenn

    2011-01-01

    The Internet provides remarkable opportunities for children's learning and development. Nevertheless, it is unregulated and hard to control, which potentially places children at risk of exploitation. This study examined five-eight-year-old children's understanding of dangers associated with the Internet, management strategies and sources of their…

  8. Dropout Prevention Strategies for Urban Children At-Risk: A Longitudinal Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cicchelli, Terry; And Others

    This study describes dropout prevention strategies used by social service and school personnel in the Stay-In-School Partnership Project (SSPP), analyzes longitudinal statistical data generated by the 3-year program, and proposes a model for conceptualizing and implementing a dropout prevention program for at-risk minority students. SSPP is a…

  9. 76 FR 14413 - Risk Mitigation Strategies To Address Potential Procoagulant Activity in Immune Globulin...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-16

    ...) pathophysiology of arterial and venous thrombosis in this context; (3) research to identify specific procoagulant...) the role of activated Coagulation Factor XIa in IGIV-associated thrombosis; (6) test methods for... HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Risk Mitigation Strategies To Address Potential...

  10. 78 FR 30313 - Standardizing and Evaluating Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies; Notice of Public Meeting...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-22

    ... standardization and assessment of risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for drug and biological... standardization and evaluation, FDA will hold a public meeting to give stakeholders, including health care... number for the public meeting as follows: ``Docket No. FDA-2013-N-0502, ``Standardization and...

  11. Word Problem Strategy for Latino English Language Learners at Risk for Math Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Orosco, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    "English Language Learners" (ELLs) at risk for "math disabilities" (MD) are challenged in solving word problems for numerous reasons such as (a) learning English as a second language, (b) limited experience using math vocabulary, and (c) lack of strategies to improve word-problem-solving skills. As a result of these…

  12. Word-Problem-Solving Strategy for Minority Students at Risk for Math Difficulties

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kong, Jennifer E.; Orosco, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    Minority students at risk for math difficulties (MD) struggle with word problems for various reasons beyond procedural or calculation challenges. As a result, these students require support in reading and language development in addition to math. The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of a math comprehension strategy based on a…

  13. The Effectiveness of Different Diet Strategies to Reduce Type 2 Diabetes Risk in Youth.

    PubMed

    Gow, Megan L; Garnett, Sarah P; Baur, Louise A; Lister, Natalie B

    2016-08-09

    Type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents has become a prominent clinical issue in recent decades. Increasing numbers of young people have risk factors for type 2 diabetes, particularly obesity, indicating the need for effective type 2 diabetes prevention strategies. The aim of this review was to identify specific dietary strategies that optimize improvements in risk factors for type 2 diabetes in youth and hence reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes development. Our review of the current literature indicates that dietary interventions lead to weight loss when intervention adherence is high. However, in addition to weight loss, a diet that is reduced in carbohydrates may optimize improvements in other type 2 diabetes risk factors, including insulin resistance and hyperglycemia. While further research is needed to confirm this finding, reduced carbohydrate diets may include a very low-carbohydrate diet, a very low-energy diet, a lower-glycemic-index diet, and/or an intermittent fasting diet. This array of dietary strategies provides a suite of intervention options for clinicians to recommend to young people at risk of type 2 diabetes. However, these findings are in contrast to current guidelines for the prevention of type 2 diabetes in adults which recommends a low-fat, high-carbohydrate diet.

  14. The Effectiveness of Different Diet Strategies to Reduce Type 2 Diabetes Risk in Youth

    PubMed Central

    Gow, Megan L.; Garnett, Sarah P.; Baur, Louise A.; Lister, Natalie B.

    2016-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents has become a prominent clinical issue in recent decades. Increasing numbers of young people have risk factors for type 2 diabetes, particularly obesity, indicating the need for effective type 2 diabetes prevention strategies. The aim of this review was to identify specific dietary strategies that optimize improvements in risk factors for type 2 diabetes in youth and hence reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes development. Our review of the current literature indicates that dietary interventions lead to weight loss when intervention adherence is high. However, in addition to weight loss, a diet that is reduced in carbohydrates may optimize improvements in other type 2 diabetes risk factors, including insulin resistance and hyperglycemia. While further research is needed to confirm this finding, reduced carbohydrate diets may include a very low-carbohydrate diet, a very low-energy diet, a lower-glycemic-index diet, and/or an intermittent fasting diet. This array of dietary strategies provides a suite of intervention options for clinicians to recommend to young people at risk of type 2 diabetes. However, these findings are in contrast to current guidelines for the prevention of type 2 diabetes in adults which recommends a low-fat, high-carbohydrate diet. PMID:27517953

  15. Communication strategies to address geohydrological risks: the POLARIS web initiative in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvati, Paola; Pernice, Umberto; Bianchi, Cinzia; Marchesini, Ivan; Fiorucci, Federica; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2016-06-01

    Floods and landslides are common phenomena that cause serious damage and pose a severe threat to the population of Italy. The social and economic impact of floods and landslides in Italy is severe, and strategies to target the mitigation of the effects of these phenomena are needed. In the last few years, the scientific community has started to use web technology to communicate information on geohydrological hazards and the associated risks. However, the communication is often targeted at technical experts. In the attempt to communicate relevant information on geohydrological hazards with potential human consequences to a broader audience, we designed the POpoLazione A RISchio (POLARIS) website. POLARIS publishes accurate information on geohydrological risk to the population of Italy, including periodic reports on landslide and flood risk, analyses of specific damaging events and blog posts on landslide and flood events. By monitoring the access to POLARIS in the 21-month period between January 2014 and October 2015, we found that access increased during particularly damaging geohydrological events and immediately after the website was advertised by press releases. POLARIS demonstrates that the scientific community can implement suitable communication strategies that address different societal audiences, exploiting the role of mass media and social media. The strategies can help multiple audiences understand how risks can be reduced through appropriate measures and behaviours, contributing to increasing the resilience of the population to geohydrological risk.

  16. Agent based models for testing city evacuation strategies under a flood event as strategy to reduce flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medina, Neiler; Sanchez, Arlex; Nokolic, Igor; Vojinovic, Zoran

    2016-04-01

    This research explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities at risk from flood events due to extreme hydro-meteorological events with the final purpose of disaster risk reduction by decreasing human's exposure to the hazard. The first part of the paper corresponds to the theory used to build the models such as: Complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. The first section outlines the pros and cons of using AMB to test city evacuation strategies at medium and large scale. The second part of the paper focuses on the central theory used to build the ABM, specifically the psychological and behavioral model as well as the framework used in this research, specifically the PECS reference model is cover in this section. The last part of this section covers the main attributes or characteristics of human beings used to described the agents. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast-Symphony as an open source agent-based modelling and simulation platform. The preliminary results for the first implementation in a region of the island of Sint-Maarten a Dutch Caribbean island are presented and discussed in the fourth section of paper. The results obtained so far, are promising for a further development of the model and its implementation and testing in a full scale city

  17. Risk of aspiration in patients on enteral nutrition: frequency, relevance, relation to pneumonia, risk factors, and strategies for risk reduction.

    PubMed

    Mizock, Barry A

    2007-08-01

    Upper digestive feeding intolerance, as evidenced by high gastric residual volume and vomiting, is the most common complication among hospitalized patients receiving enteral nutrition. These patients are at high risk of developing aspiration pneumonia, which in turn is associated with prolonged hospital stay and increased mortality. Most episodes of aspiration are small in volume and do not lead to pneumonia. The likelihood of pneumonia increases with multiple aspirations. Pneumonia is also more common in critically ill patients who have bacterial colonization of the oropharynx. Gastric residual volume is commonly used as a means to assess aspiration risk during tube feeding. However, recent studies have demonstrated that this measurement has limited sensitivity. The approach to minimizing the frequency of aspiration during tube feeding involves assessment of the patient's degree of risk and initiation of appropriate measures directed at risk reduction.

  18. Clues toward precision medicine in oral squamous cell carcinoma: utility of next-generation sequencing for the prognostic stratification of high-risk patients harboring neck lymph node extracapsular extension

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Hung-Ming; Liao, Chun-Ta; Yen, Tzu-Chen; Chen, Shu-Jen; Lee, Li-Yu; Hsieh, Chia-Hsun; Lin, Chien-Yu; Ng, Shu-Hang

    2016-01-01

    Patients with resected oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) harboring extracapsular extension (ECE) of the involved lymph node, show poor and heterogeneous outcomes. We aim to improve their prognostic stratification by combining genetic information from next-generation sequencing (NGS) using traditional clinicopathological prognosticators. The hotspot mutation regions of 45 cancer-related genes were investigated using NGS with an ultra-deep (>1000×) sequencing approach in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples obtained from 201 patients with resected OSCC harboring ECE. Adjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and the number of nodes with ECE were the most important traditional prognosticators for disease-specific survival (DSS). The 5-year DSS for patients with CRT versus without, was 55% versus 21% (P < 0.001), and that for 1-3 versus ≥ 4 ECEs was 60% versus 25% (P = 0.001), respectively. Multivariate analysis in patients who received adjuvant CRT for 1-3 ECEs (i.e., those with a favorable expected prognosis) identified the following adverse prognostic factors: 1) margin of < 5 mm for locoregional failure (66% versus 30%, P = 0.007) and DSS (42% versus 63%, P = 0.039); 2) HRAS mutation for distant failure (55% versus 25%, P = 0.007) and DSS (36% versus 63%, P = 0.024); and 3) TP53 DNA-binding domain missense mutations for DSS (52% versus 71%, P = 0.025) and overall survival (39% versus 61%, P = 0.007). We conclude that genetic information from NGS may improve the prognostic stratification offered by traditional prognosticators in resected OSCC patients with ECE. Our findings will contribute to implementation of precision medicine in OSCC patients. PMID:27590518

  19. Preventing Chronic Pain following Acute Pain: Risk Factors, Preventive Strategies, and their Efficacy

    PubMed Central

    McGreevy, Kai; Bottros, Michael M.; Raja, Srinivasa N.

    2011-01-01

    Chronic pain is the leading cause of disability in the United States. The transition from acute to persistent pain is thought to arise from maladaptive neuroplastic mechanisms involving three intertwined processes, peripheral sensitization, central sensitization, and descending modulation. Strategies aimed at preventing persistent pain may target such processes. Models for studying preventive strategies include persistent post-surgical pain (PPP), persistent post-trauma pain (PTP) and post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN). Such entities allow a more defined acute onset of tissue injury after which study of the long-term effects is more easily examined. In this review, we examine the pathophysiology, epidemiology, risk factors, and treatment strategies for the prevention of chronic pain using these models. Both pharmacological and interventional approaches are described, as well as a discussion of preventive strategies on the horizon. PMID:22102847

  20. Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Establishing Perchlorate and Goitrogen Risk Mitigation Strategies.

    PubMed

    Crawford-Brown, Douglas

    2015-08-26

    This paper applies probabilistic risk assessment in quantifying risks from cumulative and aggregate risk pathways for selected goitrogens in water and food. Results show that the percentages of individuals with a Hazard Index (HI) value above 1 ranges between 30% and 50% both with and without serum half-life correction when a traditional regulatory assessment approach based on establishment of a No Observed Effects Level (NOEL) is used. When an exposure-response curve is instead used and a threshold of 50% inhibition is assumed, 1.1% or less of the population exceeds an HI value of 1 with no serum half-life correction, rising to as high as 11% when serum half-life correction is applied. If 0% to 5% threshold for iodide uptake inhibition is assumed for production of adverse effects, the percentage of the population with an HI above 1 is 46.2% or less with no serum half-life correction, and 47.2% or less when serum half-life correction is applied. The probabilistic analysis shows that while there are exposed groups for whom perchlorate exposures are the primary cause of individuals having HI values above 1, these constitute significantly less than 1% of the population. Instead, the potential risk from exposure to goitrogens is dominated by nitrates without serum half-life correction and thiocyanates with serum half-life correction, suggesting public health protection is better accomplished by a focus on these and other goitrogens expect in highly limited cases where waterborne perchlorate is at unusually high concentrations.

  1. Flash Flood Risk Perception in an Italian Alpine Region. From Research into Adaptive Strategies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scolobig, A.; de Marchi, B.; Borga, M.

    2009-04-01

    Flash floods are characterised by short lead times and high levels of uncertainty. Adaptive strategies to face them need to take into account not only the physical characteristics of the hydro-geological phenomena, but also peoples' risk perceptions, attitudes and behaviours in case of an emergency. It is quite obvious that a precondition for an effective adaptation, e.g. in the case of a warning, is the awareness of being endangered. At the same time the perceptions of those at risk and their likely actions inform hazard warning strategies and recovery programmes following such events. Usually low risk awareness or "wrong perceptions" of the residents are considered among the causes of an inadequate preparedness or response to flash floods as well as a symptom of a scarce self-protection culture. In this paper we will focus on flood risk perception and on how research on this topic may contribute to design adaptive strategies and give inputs to flood policy decisions. We will report on a flood risk perception study of the population residing in four villages in an Italian Alpine Region (Trentino Alto-Adige), carried out between October 2005 and January 2006. A total of 400 standardised questionnaires were submitted to local residents by face to face interviews. The surveys were preceded by focus groups with officers from agencies in charge of flood risk management and semi-structured and in-depth interviews with policy, scientific and technical experts. Survey results indicated that people are not so worried about hydro-geological phenomena, and think that their community is more endangered than themselves. The knowledge of the territory and danger sources, the unpredictability of flash floods and the feeling of safety induced by structural devices are the main elements which make the difference in shaping residents' perceptions. The study also demonstrated a widespread lack of adoption of preparatory measures among residents, together with a general low

  2. NASA Space Radiation Protection Strategies: Risk Assessment and Permissible Exposure Limits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huff, J. L.; Patel, Z. S.; Simonsen, L. C.

    2017-01-01

    Permissible exposure limits (PELs) for short-term and career astronaut exposures to space radiation have been set and approved by NASA with the goal of protecting astronauts against health risks associated with ionizing radiation exposure. Short term PELs are intended to prevent clinically significant deterministic health effects, including performance decrements, which could threaten astronaut health and jeopardize mission success. Career PELs are implemented to control late occurring health effects, including a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) from cancer, and dose limits are used to prevent cardiovascular and central nervous system diseases. For radiation protection, meeting the cancer PEL is currently the design driver for galactic cosmic ray and solar particle event shielding, mission duration, and crew certification (e.g., 1-year ISS missions). The risk of cancer development is the largest known long-term health consequence following radiation exposure, and current estimates for long-term health risks due to cardiovascular diseases are approximately 30% to 40% of the cancer risk for exposures above an estimated threshold (Deep Space one-year and Mars missions). Large uncertainties currently exist in estimating the health risks of space radiation exposure. Improved understanding through radiobiology and physics research allows increased accuracy in risk estimation and is essential for ensuring astronaut health as well as for controlling mission costs, optimization of mission operations, vehicle design, and countermeasure assessment. We will review the Space Radiation Program Element's research strategies to increase accuracy in risk models and to inform development and validation of the permissible exposure limits.

  3. Environmental Strategies for Prevention of Drug Use and Risks in Clubs

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Brenda A.; Holder, Harold D.; Voas, Robert B.

    2009-01-01

    Environmental prevention strategies in club settings where music and dance events are featured could provide an important new arena for the prevention of drug use and other risky behaviors (e.g., sexual risk taking, intoxication and drug use, aggression, and driving under the influence). Electronic music dance events (EMDEs) occur in clubs that attract young, emerging adults (18–25 years of age) and attract individuals who engage in various types of drug use. Borrowing from the environmental prevention studies that focus on reducing alcohol use and related problems, a model for drug prevention in the club setting is proposed. Initially, an overview of the relationships between EMDEs and drug use and other risky behaviors are presented. Next, rationales for environmental strategies are provided. Finally, an environmental approach to prevention of drug use and risky behaviors in clubs is described. This comprehensive set of environmental strategies, is designed to be mutually supportive and interactive. Environmental strategies are believed to provide potential for developing an efficacious prevention strategy. The environmental prevention approach presented here is composed of three intervention domains: (1) Mobilization, (2) Strategies for the Exterior Environment, and (3) Strategies for the Interior Environment. PMID:20216925

  4. Development of a variable speed limit strategy to reduce secondary collision risks during inclement weathers.

    PubMed

    Li, Zhibin; Li, Ye; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei; Xu, Chengcheng

    2014-11-01

    Inclement weather reduces traveler's sight distance and increases vehicle's stopping distance. Once a collision occurred during inclement weather and resulted in a slow traffic, approaching vehicles may not have adequate time to make emergency responses to the hazardous traffic, resulting in increased potentials of secondary collisions. The primary objective of this study is to develop a control strategy of variable speed limits (VSL) to reduce the risks of secondary collisions during inclement weathers. By analyzing the occurrence condition of secondary collision, the VSL strategy is proposed to dynamically adjust the speed limits according to the current traffic and weather conditions. A car-following model is modified to simulate the vehicle maneuvers with the VSL control. Two surrogate safety measures, based on the time-to-collision notion, are used to evaluate the control effects of VSL. Five weather scenarios are evaluated in simulation. The results show that the VSL strategy effectively reduces the risks of secondary collisions in various weather types. The time exposed time-to-collision (TET) is reduced by 41.45%-50.74%, and the time integrated time-to-collision (TIT) is reduced by 38.19%-41.19%. The safety effects are compared to those with a previous VSL strategy. The results show that in most cases our strategy outperforms the previous one. We also evaluate how driver's compliance to speed limit affects the effectiveness of VSL control.

  5. Cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit analyses of risk-based screening strategies for breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Vilaprinyo, Ester; Forné, Carles; Carles, Misericordia; Sala, Maria; Pla, Roger; Castells, Xavier; Domingo, Laia; Rue, Montserrat

    2014-01-01

    The one-size-fits-all paradigm in organized screening of breast cancer is shifting towards a personalized approach. The present study has two objectives: 1) To perform an economic evaluation and to assess the harm-benefit ratios of screening strategies that vary in their intensity and interval ages based on breast cancer risk; and 2) To estimate the gain in terms of cost and harm reductions using risk-based screening with respect to the usual practice. We used a probabilistic model and input data from Spanish population registries and screening programs, as well as from clinical studies, to estimate the benefit, harm, and costs over time of 2,624 screening strategies, uniform or risk-based. We defined four risk groups, low, moderate-low, moderate-high and high, based on breast density, family history of breast cancer and personal history of breast biopsy. The risk-based strategies were obtained combining the exam periodicity (annual, biennial, triennial and quinquennial), the starting ages (40, 45 and 50 years) and the ending ages (69 and 74 years) in the four risk groups. Incremental cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit ratios were used to select the optimal strategies. Compared to risk-based strategies, the uniform ones result in a much lower benefit for a specific cost. Reductions close to 10% in costs and higher than 20% in false-positive results and overdiagnosed cases were obtained for risk-based strategies. Optimal screening is characterized by quinquennial or triennial periodicities for the low or moderate risk-groups and annual periodicity for the high-risk group. Risk-based strategies can reduce harm and costs. It is necessary to develop accurate measures of individual risk and to work on how to implement risk-based screening strategies.

  6. Trade-offs between predation risk and forage differ between migrant strategies in a migratory ungulate.

    PubMed

    Hebblewhite, Mark; Merrill, Evelyn H

    2009-12-01

    Trade-offs between predation risk and forage fundamentally drive resource selection by animals. Among migratory ungulates, trade-offs can occur at large spatial scales through migration, which allows an "escape" from predation, but trade-offs can also occur at finer spatial scales. Previous authors suggest that ungulates will avoid predation risk at the largest scale, although few studies have examined multi-scale trade-offs to test for the relative benefits of risk avoidance across scales. Building on previously developed spatial models of forage and wolf predation risk, we tested for trade-offs at the broad landscape scale and at a finer, within-home-range scale for migratory and non-migratory resident elk (Cervus elaphus) during summer in the Canadian Rockies in Banff National Park (BNP) and adjacent Alberta, Canada. Migration reduced exposure to wolf predation risk by 70% relative to residents at the landscape scale; at the fine scale, migrants used areas that were, on average, 6% higher in forage digestibility. In contrast, by forgoing migration, resident elk were exposed to higher predation risk, but they reduced predation risk at fine scales to only 15% higher than migrants by using areas close to human activity, which wolves avoided. Thus, residents paid for trying to avoid predation risk with lower forage quality. Residents may have been able to compensate, however, by using areas of abundant forage close to human activity where they may have been able to forage more selectively while avoiding predation risk. Human activity effectively decoupled the positive correlation between high forage quality and wolf predation, providing an effective alternate strategy for residents, similar to recent findings in other systems. Although ungulates appear capable of balancing risk and forage at different spatial scales, risk avoidance at large landscape scales may be more effective in the absence of human-caused refugia from predation.

  7. Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, B.L.; Gajewski, S.J.; Glantz, C.L.

    1996-09-01

    This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various {open_quotes}constraint levels{close_quotes} have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the {open_quotes}costs{close_quote} of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria.

  8. Reporting pesticide assessment results to farmworker families: development, implementation, and evaluation of a risk communication strategy.

    PubMed Central

    Quandt, Sara A; Doran, Alicia M; Rao, Pamela; Hoppin, Jane A; Snively, Beverly M; Arcury, Thomas A

    2004-01-01

    The collection of environmental samples presents a responsibility to return information to the affected participants. Explaining complex and often ambiguous scientific information to a lay audience is a challenge. As shown by environmental justice research, this audience frequently has limited formal education, increasing the challenge for researchers to explain the data collected, the risk indicated by the findings, and action the affected community should take. In this study we describe the development and implementation of a risk communication strategy for environmental pesticide samples collected in the homes of Latino/a migrant and seasonal farmworkers in a community-based participatory research project. The communication strategy was developed with community input and was based on face-to-face meetings with members of participating households. Using visual displays of data effectively conveyed information about individual household contamination and placed it in the context of community findings. The lack of national reference data and definitive standards for action necessitated a simplified risk message. We review the strengths and weaknesses of such an approach and suggest areas for future research in risk communication to communities affected by environmental health risks. PMID:15064174

  9. Crime, violence, and behavioral health: collaborative community strategies for risk mitigation.

    PubMed

    Pinals, Debra A

    2015-06-01

    Criminal conduct is not always violent, and violence does not always lead to criminal charges. Moreover, crime and violence have multifaceted etiologies. Most violence in society is not attributable to mental illness. Where there is a small relationship between violence and mental illness, the risk of violence increases for individuals with substance use histories. Underlying trauma can also play a role. Antisocial attitudes, behaviors, and peer groups further increase the risk that individuals, including those with mental illness, will find themselves at risk of criminal recidivism. Criminal histories among public mental health populations, and mental health and substance use disorders among criminal populations are each higher than general population comparisons. Care within behavioral health settings should therefore target decreased criminal recidivism and decreased violence as part of recovery for those individuals at risk, using trauma-informed approaches and peer supports. Interventions that show promise bring criminal justice and behavioral health systems together, and include police-based diversion, specialty courts, court-based alternatives to incarceration, and coordinated re-entry programs. This article reviews these options along with specific risk management strategies, such as using risk, needs, and responsivity factors as a means of improving overall outcomes for persons with mental illness, while minimizing their risk of further criminalization and victimization.

  10. The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis

    PubMed Central

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Stahl, Daniel; Borgwardt, Stephan; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Addington, Jean; Perkins, Diana O.; Woods, Scott W.; McGlashan, Thomas; Lee, Jimmy; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Yung, Alison R.; McGuire, Philip

    2016-01-01

    Background: The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Methods: Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR−). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. Results: 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR−: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%–24%, I 2 = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = −.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = −1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = −.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. Conclusions: There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk

  11. Breeds of risk-adjusted fundamentalist strategies in an order-driven market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LiCalzi, Marco; Pellizzari, Paolo

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies an order-driven stock market where agents have heterogeneous estimates of the fundamental value of the risky asset. The agents are budget-constrained and follow a value-based trading strategy which buys or sells depending on whether the price of the asset is below or above its risk-adjusted fundamental value. This environment generates returns that are remarkably leptokurtic and fat-tailed. By extending the study over a grid of different parameters for the fundamentalist trading strategy, we exhibit the existence of monotone relationships between the bid-ask spread demanded by the agents and several statistics of the returns. We conjecture that this effect, coupled with positive dependence of the risk premium on the volatility, generates positive feedbacks that might explain volatility bursts.

  12. Ultraviolet radiation and the athlete: risk, sun safety, and barriers to implementation of protective strategies.

    PubMed

    Jinna, Sphoorthi; Adams, Brian B

    2013-07-01

    Ultraviolet (UV) radiation plays a pivotal role in the development of both melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancers. Numerous factors potentially place athletes at high risk for developing these cancers. Various prevention strategies ameliorate this risk, including avoiding sun exposure during peak UV exposure hours, applying sunscreen with a sun protection factor of 30 or above before participating in outdoor sports, wearing hats and sunglasses, and reducing exposure with long pants and long-sleeve shirts. The literature, however, cites several barriers to these prevention approaches, including sports' competition rules, the lack of availability of sunscreen, and the lack of information about sun safety behaviors. Sun safety education programs prove effective in getting athletes to participate in prevention strategies. This article reviews the effect of UV radiation on athletes' skin and provides sports medicine clinicians with suggestions to improve the sun safety behaviors of their athletes.

  13. Noncommunicable diseases: risk factors and regional strategies for prevention and care.

    PubMed

    Khatib, O

    2004-11-01

    Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a major disease burden in the Region. Many of the risk factors are related to lifestyle and can be controlled. Physical inactivity, low fruit and vegetable intake, high fast food consumption and high cholesterol are predominant causes of cardiovascular disease and some cancers. Overweight and obesity can lead to metabolic changes and raise the risk of NCDs, including heart disease and type 2 diabetes. Three main strategies are proposed to deal with the problem: estimate need and advocate for action; develop national policies, strategies and plans for prevention and care; promote and implement community participation in prevention and care. NCDs are preventable using available knowledge; solutions are effective and highly cost-effective.

  14. Risk factors and prevention strategies of non-contact anterior cruciate ligament injuries.

    PubMed

    Laible, Catherine; Sherman, Orrin H

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the number of women playing sports has increased significantly. The passage of Title IX in 1972 had a significant effect in encouraging female participation in sports. This increase in women's sports participation also led to a rise in noncontact anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries. As ACL injuries in young female athletes have be- come a public health issue, much research has been done on risk factors and prevention strategies.

  15. Pastoral Herding Strategies and Governmental Management Objectives: Predation Compensation as a Risk Buffering Strategy in the Saami Reindeer Husbandry.

    PubMed

    Næss, Marius Warg; Bårdsen, Bård-Jørgen; Pedersen, Elisabeth; Tveraa, Torkild

    2011-08-01

    Previously it has been found that an important risk buffering strategy in the Saami reindeer husbandry in Norway is the accumulation of large herds of reindeer as this increases long-term household viability. Nevertheless, few studies have investigated how official policies, such as economic compensation for livestock losses, can influence pastoral strategies. This study investigated the effect of received predation compensation on individual husbandry units' future herd size. The main finding in this study is that predation compensation had a positive effect on husbandry units' future herd size. The effect of predation compensation, however, was nonlinear in some years, indicating that predation compensation had a positive effect on future herd size only up to a certain threshold whereby adding additional predation compensation had little effect on future herd size. More importantly, the effect of predation compensation was positive after controlling for reindeer density, indicating that for a given reindeer density husbandry units receiving more predation compensation performed better (measured as the size of future herds) compared to husbandry units receiving less compensation.

  16. Acute anticoagulation adjustment in patients with atrial fibrillation at risk for stroke: approaches, strategies, risks and benefits.

    PubMed

    Olshansky, Brian; Guo, Hongsheng

    2005-07-01

    The acute management of anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation to prevent stroke and other thromboembolic complications includes the use of individualized strategies tailored to the patient and based on the situation (cardioversion, surgeries, dental procedures, cardiac interventions, other invasive procedures and initiation of, or adjustment to, warfarin dosing). The vast range of choices can cause confusion and few randomized controlled clinical trials in this area provide adequate guidance. Chronic anticoagulation management is more straightforward since clinical evidence is ample, randomized clinical trial data provides cogent informaiton and guidelines have been established. Acute management of anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation to prevent thromboembolic complications is often unrecognized but is emerging as a crucial, but challenging, and increasingly complex aspect of the care of patients with atrial fibrillation. This review addresses issues regarding such patients who may be at risk for stroke and require acute adjustments of anticoagulation (in light of, or in lieu of, chronic anticoagulation). Several promising new strategies are considered in light of established medical care. This analysis provides practical recommendations based on available data and presents results from recent investigations that may provide insight into future strategies.

  17. Stratification and mobility in contemporary Egypt.

    PubMed

    Nagi, Saad Z; Nagi, Omar

    2011-01-01

    The objectives in this statement are to characterize and explain the patterns of change in stratification and mobility in Egypt, over the last half century, by placing them within conceptual, explanatory, and historical contexts. First, literature relevant to the primary concepts of "class" and "status", is reviewed. Second, four institutions whose influence is fundamental in shaping these patterns are identified to form an explanatory context: family, polity, economy, and education. And third, an historical account is presented to demonstrate the interplay of these institutions and their consequences for stratification and mobility. For this, four periods are identified that are marked by change in the dominance of institutions and their corresponding influence on stratification and mobility. In addition to data available in relevant literature, this analysis utilizes primary data generated through a national probability household survey.

  18. Flood-risk management strategies for an uncertain future: living with Rhine River floods in The Netherlands?

    PubMed

    Klijn, Frans; van Buuren, Michaël; van Rooij, Sabine A M

    2004-05-01

    Social pressure on alluvial plains and deltas is large, both from an economic point of view and from a nature conservation point of view. Gradually, flood risks increase with economic development, because the expected damage increases, and with higher dikes, because the flooding depth increases. Global change, changing social desires, but also changing views, require a revision of flood-risk management strategies for the long term. These should be based on resilience as opposed to the resistence strategy of heightening dikes. Resilience strategies for flood-risk management imply that the river is allowed to temporarily flood large areas, whereas the flood damage is minimized by adapting land use. Such strategies are thus based on risk management and 'living with floods' instead of on hazard control. For The Netherlands, one of the most densely populated deltas in the world, alternative resilience strategies have been elaborated and assessed for their hydraulic functioning and 'sustainability criteria'.

  19. Reducing disaster risk in rural Arctic communities through effective communication strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kontar, Y. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Communication is the process of exchanging and relaying vital information that has bearing on the effectiveness of all phases of emergency management: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery, making it one of the most important activities in disasters. Lack of communication between emergency managers, policy makers, and communities at risk may result in an inability to accurately identify disaster risk, and failure to determine priorities during a hazard event. Specific goals of communication change during the four phases of emergency management. Consequently, the communication strategy changes as well. Communication strategy also depends on a variety of attitudinal and motivational characteristics of the population at risk, as well as socioeconomic, cultural, and geographical features of the disaster-prone region. In May 2013, insufficient communication patterns between federal, state, tribal agencies, and affected communities significantly contributed to delays in the flood response and recovery in several rural villages along the Yukon River in central Alaska. This case study finds that long term dialogue is critical for managing disaster risk and increasing disaster resilience in rural Northern communities. It introduces new ideas and highlights best practices in disaster communication.

  20. Caries management by risk assessment: A review on current strategies for caries prevention and management

    PubMed Central

    Maheswari, S. Uma; Raja, Jacob; Kumar, Arvind; Seelan, R. Gnana

    2015-01-01

    The current trend in treating dental caries is using nondestructive risk-based caries management strategies rather than focusing on the restorative treatment alone. Currently, there have been many changes in understanding of the multifaceted nature of caries process and its management. Caries Management by Risk Assessment (CAMBRA) which is an evidence-based approach focuses on determining many factors causing the expression of disease and take corrective action. The clinicians can ascertain what behaviors are increasing a patient's risk for disease and disease progression by evaluating the current caries risk of a patient. With this modern CAMBRA protocol, a novel treatment plan can be designed to arrest dental caries thereby decreasing the chance of cavitation. After the recognition of the multi factorial nature of caries involving the biofilm, the contemporary approaches focused mainly on the various options to cope with the locally out-of-balance oral biofilm and stop the progression of the disease. The initial caries lesions can be diagnosed with modern diagnostic aids and with the help of CAMBRA, reestablishment of the integrity of the tooth surface early on in the caries process will bring great rewards for patients. This review focuses on the repair of hard tooth tissues using noninvasive strategies. PMID:26538870

  1. Risk assessment, life history strategies, and turtles: could declines be prevented or predicted?

    PubMed

    Burger, J; Garber, S D

    1995-12-01

    The process of ecological risk assessment should involve the ability to predict adverse outcomes of particular environmental contaminants or human intrusions. Ecological risk assessment generally focuses on populations, communities, and ecosystems, rather than on individual health. We explore the importance of life history strategies of aquatic turtles to their risk from environmental contaminants and other human activities using three examples: the wood turtle Clemmys insculpta, a freshwater species; the diamondback terrapin Malaclemys terrapin, a littoral species; and marine turtles as a group. These turtles are partly herbivorous and are at low or intermediate levels on the food chain, yet are particularly vulnerable due to their life history strategies of being long-lived with relatively low survival of young. They suffer a variety of natural mortality factors that include predation, starvation, and disease, as well as inundation and destruction of nesting beaches and their eggs by storms. Yet they also face a number of anthropogenic hazards, including toxic chemicals and floatables (plastics); capture for food, other products, and pets; incidental mortality in fishing gear; disturbance while nesting or moving on land; injuries or death by collision with boats; and increased predator exposure because of humans. The three turtle species (or groups of species) examined have experienced these natural and anthropogenic pressures differentially, with resultant differences in the rates of population declines. Because they are lower on the food chain than other obligate carnivores, they are less vulnerable to toxics, and to date, toxics seem a relatively inconsequential environmental risk to turtles.

  2. Simulating Pelletization Strategies to Reduce the Biomass Supply Risk at America’s Biorefineries

    SciTech Connect

    Jacob J. Jacobson; Shane Carnohan; Andrew Ford; Allyson Beall

    2014-07-01

    Demand for cellulosic ethanol and other advanced biofuels has been on the rise, due in part to federal targets enacted in 2005 and extended in 2007. The industry faces major challenges in meeting these worthwhile and ambitious targets. The challenges are especially severe in the logistics of timely feedstock delivery to biorefineries. Logistical difficulties arise from seasonal production that forces the biomass to be stored in uncontrolled field-side environments. In this storage format physical difficulties arise; transportation is hindered by the low bulk density of baled biomass and the unprotected material can decay leading to unpredictable losses. Additionally, uncertain yields and contractual difficulties can exacerbate these challenges making biorefineries a high-risk venture. Investors’ risk could limit business entry and prevent America from reaching the targets. This paper explores pelletizer strategies to convert the lignocellulosic biomass into a denser form more suitable for storage. The densification of biomass would reduce supply risks, and the new system would outperform conventional biorefinery supply systems. Pelletizer strategies exhibit somewhat higher costs, but the reduction in risk is well worth the extra cost if America is to grow the advanced biofuels industry in a sustainable manner.

  3. Management of Agricultural Weather Risks: traditional procedures and new management strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burgaz, F.

    2009-04-01

    Throughout history, agriculture has progressed as an outcome of farmers' efforts to design and apply adaptation strategies aiming to mitigate the impact of adverse meteorological phenomena on their farms' economy. The survival and sustainability of farmholdings, regardless of size or type of production, is directly related to their capacity to withstand the consequences of such phenomena and continue to yield a harvest year after year. While substantial differences can be identified in the intensity and frequency of the damage borne, depending on the country, region and type of production, no farm is exempt from the effects of uncontrollable risks. In this endeavour to mitigate such consequences and successfully manage natural risks, the first protective step must be taken by the farm itself, which must adopt measures that pursue more favourable crop development or a heightened ability to handle risks and their adverse effects. But when the damage inflicted is of an intensity that cannot be accommodated by the farmer, instruments must be deployed that spread or transfer risk to third parties, a process known as risk insurance. Experience shows that of the various such instruments in place, insurance constitutes the most appropriate risk management model and the one that has reached the highest levels of development and acceptance among farmers.

  4. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy programs in solid organ transplantation: the promises of information technology.

    PubMed

    Tsapepas, Demetra S; McKeen, Jaclyn T; Martin, Spencer T; Walker-McDermott, Jennifer K; Yang, Alex; Hirsch, Jamie; Mohan, Sumit; Tiwari, Ruchi

    2014-10-01

    Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) required by the Food and Drug Administration are implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing safe use throughout the life of a pharmaceutical agent. Healthcare organizations have begun to adopt information technologies with clinical decision support (CDS) to ensure safe use of medications. Systems have been expanded and customized to also ensure compliance with regulatory standards. End users who are unfamiliar with particular medication use provisions are at risk of unknowingly inappropriately fulfilling specific components. Institution-specific customization of vendor-provided CDS is useful to enhance provider awareness and ensure compliance with standards. Integration of health information technology systems to fulfill REMS requirements is novel and important to ensure consistency as healthcare standards evolve.

  5. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy programs in solid organ transplantation: the promises of information technology

    PubMed Central

    Tsapepas, Demetra S; McKeen, Jaclyn T; Martin, Spencer T; Walker-McDermott, Jennifer K; Yang, Alex; Hirsch, Jamie; Mohan, Sumit; Tiwari, Ruchi

    2014-01-01

    Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) required by the Food and Drug Administration are implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing safe use throughout the life of a pharmaceutical agent. Healthcare organizations have begun to adopt information technologies with clinical decision support (CDS) to ensure safe use of medications. Systems have been expanded and customized to also ensure compliance with regulatory standards. End users who are unfamiliar with particular medication use provisions are at risk of unknowingly inappropriately fulfilling specific components. Institution-specific customization of vendor-provided CDS is useful to enhance provider awareness and ensure compliance with standards. Integration of health information technology systems to fulfill REMS requirements is novel and important to ensure consistency as healthcare standards evolve. PMID:24573422

  6. Female genital mutilation/cutting: risk management and strategies for social workers and health care professionals

    PubMed Central

    Costello, Susan

    2015-01-01

    Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is a traditional practice originating in Africa. Its worst forms cause irreparable harm to girls and women and have no medical justification. Based on a literature review of global responses to FGM/C and conversations with Australian women who migrated from FGM/C practicing countries, this paper provides some background on FGM/C and its epidemiology, outlining its prevalence, types, and health risks and complications for women and girls. It discusses risk-prevention strategies, first, for health practitioners in identifying, screening, and supporting women affected by FGM/C and, second, for welfare and social workers and health care professionals to identify, work with, and prevent girls from being cut. Consistent with international trends in addressing the risks of FGM/C, the paper suggests practice responses for coordinated responses between professionals, communities from practicing countries, and governments of different countries. PMID:26719732

  7. Residual flood-risk: assessing the effectiveness of alternative large-scale mitigation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio

    2016-04-01

    The EU Flood Directive (2007/60/CE) requires institutions and public bodies, in order to formulate robust flood-risk management strategies for large European rivers, to address several fundamental tasks. For instance, they have to address the problem of flood-risk mitigation from a global perspective (i.e., entire middle-lower river reaches) by identifying critical reaches, inundation areas and corresponding overflow volumes. To this aim, we focus on the identification of large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies for the middle-lower reach of the Po river, the longest Italian river and the largest in terms of streamflow. We refer to the so-called residual flood-risk and in particular to its portion referring to the possibility to experience events associated with larger return periods than the reference one (e.g. ~200 years in our case). In particular, being a further levee heightening not technically viable nor economically conceivable for the case study, the study develops and tests the applicability of a quasi-2D hydraulic model for the identification of large-scale flood-risk mitigation strategies relative to a 500-year flood event. In particular, we consider and model in the study different geometrical configurations of the main embankment system for a ~400km reach stretching from Isola S.Antonio to the Po river delta in the Adriatic Sea: overtopping without levee breaching, overtopping and natural levee breaching, overtopping and forced levee breaching. The simulations enable the assessment of the overflowed volumes and water depths on flooded areas. Expected damages are estimated using simplified graphical tools, which we termed "Vulnerability Hypsometric Curves" (HVCs) and report the extent of the area for a given land use category that is located below a certain elevation. The analysis aims at finding the optimal configuration that minimizes the expected damages in the areas prone to flood. The outcomes of our study indicate that coupling a large

  8. An electrophysiological index of changes in risk decision-making strategies

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Dandan; Gu, Ruolei; Wu, Tingting; Broster, Lucas S.; Luo, Yi; Jiang, Yang; Luo, Yue-jia

    2014-01-01

    Human decision-making is significantly modulated by previously experienced outcomes. Using event-related potentials (ERPs), we examined whether ERP components evoked by outcome feedbacks could serve as biomarkers to signal the influence of current outcome evaluation on subsequent decision-making. In this study, eighteen adult volunteers participated in a simple monetary gambling task, in which they were asked to choose between two options that differed in risk. Their decisions were immediately followed by outcome presentation. Temporospatial principle component analysis (PCA) was applied to the outcome-onset locked ERPs in the -200 – 1000 ms time window. The PCA factors that approximated classical ERP components (P2, feedback-related negativity, P3a, & P3b) in terms of time course and scalp distribution were tested for their association with subsequent decision-making strategies. Our results revealed that a fronto-central PCA factor approximating the classical P3a was related to changes of decision-making strategies on subsequent trials. The decision to switch between high- and low-risk options resulted in a larger P3a relative to the decision to retain the same choice. According to the results, we suggest the amplitude of the fronto-central P3a is an electrophysiological index of the influence of current outcome on subsequent risk decision-making. Furthermore, the ERP source analysis indicated that the activations of the frontopolar cortex and sensorimotor cortex were involved in subsequent changes of strategies, which enriches our understanding of the neural mechanisms of adjusting decision-making strategies based on previous experience. PMID:23643796

  9. An electrophysiological index of changes in risk decision-making strategies.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Dandan; Gu, Ruolei; Wu, Tingting; Broster, Lucas S; Luo, Yi; Jiang, Yang; Luo, Yue-jia

    2013-07-01

    Human decision-making is significantly modulated by previously experienced outcomes. Using event-related potentials (ERPs), we examined whether ERP components evoked by outcome feedbacks could serve as biomarkers to signal the influence of current outcome evaluation on subsequent decision-making. In this study, 18 adult volunteers participated in a simple monetary gambling task, in which they were asked to choose between two options that differed in risk. Their decisions were immediately followed by outcome presentation. Temporospatial principle component analysis (PCA) was applied to the outcome-onset locked ERPs in the 200-1000 ms time window. The PCA factors that approximated classical ERP components (P2, feedback-related negativity, P3a, and P3b) in terms of time course and scalp distribution were tested for their association with subsequent decision-making strategies. Our results revealed that a fronto-central PCA factor approximating the classical P3a was related to changes of decision-making strategies on subsequent trials. The decision to switch between high- and low-risk options resulted in a larger P3a relative to the decision to retain the same choice. According to the results, we suggest that the amplitude of the fronto-central P3a is an electrophysiological index of the influence of current outcome on subsequent risk decision-making. Furthermore, the ERP source analysis indicated that the activations of the frontopolar cortex and sensorimotor cortex were involved in subsequent changes of strategies, which enriches our understanding of the neural mechanisms of adjusting decision-making strategies based on previous experience.

  10. Hospital Strategies for Reducing Risk-Standardized Mortality Rates in Acute Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Bradley, Elizabeth H.; Curry, Leslie A.; Spatz, Erica S.; Herrin, Jeph; Cherlin, Emily J.; Curtis, Jeptha P.; Thompson, Jennifer W.; Ting, Henry H.; Wang, Yongfei; Krumholz, Harlan M.

    2012-01-01

    Background Despite recent improvements in survival after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), U.S. hospitals vary 2-fold in their 30-day risk-standardized mortality rates (RSMRs). Nevertheless, information is limited on hospital-level factors that may be associated with RSMRs. Objective To identify hospital strategies that were associated with lower RSMRs. Design Cross-sectional survey of 537 hospitals (91% response rate) and weighted multivariate regression by using data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to determine the associations between hospital strategies and hospital RSMRs. Setting Acute care hospitals with an annualized AMI volume of at least 25 patients. Participants Patients hospitalized with AMI between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2009. Measurements Hospital performance improvement strategies, characteristics, and 30-day RSMRs. Results In multivariate analysis, several hospital strategies were significantly associated with lower RSMRs and in aggregate were associated with clinically important differences in RSMRs. These strategies included holding monthly meetings to review AMI cases between hospital clinicians and staff who transported patients to the hospital (RSMR lower by 0.70 percentage points), having cardiologists always on site (lower by 0.54 percentage points), fostering an organizational environment in which clinicians are encouraged to solve problems creatively (lower by 0.84 percentage points), not cross-training nurses from intensive care units for the cardiac catheterization laboratory (lower by 0.44 percentage points), and having physician and nurse champions rather than nurse champions alone (lower by 0.88 percentage points). Fewer than 10% of hospitals reported using at least 4 of these 5 strategies. Limitation The cross-sectional design demonstrates statistical associations but cannot establish causal relationships. Conclusion Several strategies, which are currently implemented by relatively few hospitals, are

  11. Coping strategies as psychological risk factor for antenatal anxiety, worries, and depression among Greek women.

    PubMed

    Gourounti, Kleanthi; Anagnostopoulos, Fotios; Lykeridou, Katerina

    2013-10-01

    A range of psychosocial, medical, and demographic variables may influence pregnant women's psychological status. However the association between coping strategies, anxiety, worries, and depression during pregnancy is a relatively neglected area of research. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the relationship between coping strategies, antenatal anxiety, pregnancy worries, and depressive symptomatology after controlling for the effects of background variables. The study sample consisted of 163 pregnant women, with gestational age ranging from 11 to 26 weeks, attending antenatal screening at a Greek public hospital. Coping strategies were measured with Brief COPE, pregnancy worries were measured with Cambridge Worry Scale (CWS), anxiety was assessed using State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI-X version), and depression was measured with Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scale (CES-D). Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated among all study variables, followed by hierarchical multiple linear regression. In the univariate analysis, low annual income, unemployment, conception after an IVF treatment, and a previous history of miscarriage were associated with anxiety, depression, and worries. Additionally, almost all coping strategies (denial, behavioral disengagement, self-blame, self-distraction, substance use, acceptance, positive reframing, active coping, and seeking emotional support) were significantly associated with antenatal anxiety, worries, and depression. Linear regression analysis showed that only previous history of miscarriage, conception after IVF, as well as denial, behavioral disengagement and acceptance coping strategies were significantly related to anxiety, worries and depressive symptomatology. The risk factors found in this study could help clinicians target anxiety and depression screening to high-risk populations of pregnant women. Provision of adequate training for obstetricians and midwives in the detection and

  12. Evaluation of the environmental impact of apple pest control strategies using pesticide risk indicators.

    PubMed

    Ioriatti, Claudio; Agnello, Arthur M; Martini, Fabrizio; Kovach, Joseph

    2011-10-01

    Various pesticide risk indicators have been developed for estimating pesticide impact on human health and the environment. The present work applied a pesticide risk indicator to estimate change in pesticide risk in apple production between 2001 and 2009. The "Environmental Impact Quotient" was used, which evaluates potential impacts of pesticide active ingredients on farm workers, consumers, and nontarget organisms. A modified Environmental Impact Quotient was also tested, which accounts for all ingredients in the formulation presenting a health or environmental hazard, as identified in the Security Data Sheet. Irrespective of the rating system applied, an overall average improvement in environmental impact of apple protection strategies was indicated ranging from 23 to 24%. Hazard reduction was more significant when estimated per treatment, and was higher for acaricides and insecticides than for fungicides. Improvement appeared to be a consequence of using more selective and more effective active ingredients, applying alternative pest control techniques, compulsory periodic sprayer calibration, and wider use of dwarfing orchards. The modified Environmental Impact Quotient does not overcome all limitations regarding accuracy of pesticide risk indicators, but its ease of use in relying on official, easily accessible data, and the consistency of its results, makes it a good candidate for monitoring the success of reduced risk policies.

  13. Fatigue risk management by volunteer fire-fighters: Use of informal strategies to augment formal policy.

    PubMed

    Dawson, Drew; Mayger, Katherine; Thomas, Matthew J W; Thompson, Kirrilly

    2015-11-01

    An increasing number and intensity of catastrophic fire events in Australia has led to increasing demands on a mainly volunteer fire-fighting workforce. Despite the increasing likelihood of fatigue in the emergency services environment, there is not yet a systematic, unified approach to fatigue management in fire agencies across Australia. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to identify informal strategies used in volunteer fire-fighting and examine how these strategies are transmitted across the workforce. Thirty experienced Australian volunteer fire-fighters were interviewed in August 2010. The study identified informal fatigue-management behaviours at the individual, team and brigade level that have evolved in fire-fighting environments and are regularly implemented. However, their purpose was not explicitly recognized as such. This apparent paradox - that fatigue proofing behaviours exist but that they are not openly understood as such - may well resolve a potential conflict between a culture of indefatigability in the emergency services sector and the frequent need to operate safely while fatigued. However, formal controls require fire-fighters and their organisations to acknowledge and accept their vulnerability. This suggests two important areas in which to improve formal fatigue risk management in the emergency services sector: (1) identifying and formalising tacit or informal fatigue coping strategies as legitimate elements of the fatigue risk management system; and (2) developing culturally appropriate techniques for systematically communicating fatigue levels to self and others.

  14. A Critique of Duncan's Stratification Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crowder, N. David

    Duncan's interpretation of his research on the nature and process of the distribution of rewards in the U.S. stratification system is questioned. Statistical and conceptual flaws are noted in Duncan's work and their implications explored. A reanalysis of primary survey data is presented and, based on a reinterpretation of this data, a…

  15. Stratification dynamics in drying colloidal mixtures.

    PubMed

    Howard, Michael P; Nikoubashman, Arash; Panagiotopoulos, Athanassios Z

    2017-03-28

    Stratification in binary colloidal mixtures was investigated using implicit-solvent molecular dynamics simulations. For large particle size ratios and film Péclet numbers greater than unity, smaller colloids migrated to the top of the film, while big colloids were pushed to the bottom, creating an "inverted" stratification. This peculiar behavior was observed in recent simulations and experiments conducted by Fortini et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett. 2016, 116, 118301). To rationalize this behavior, particle size ratios and drying rates spanning qualitatively different Péclet number regimes were systematically studied, and the dynamics of the inverted stratification were quantified in detail. The stratified layer of small colloids was found to grow faster and to larger thicknesses for larger size ratios. Interestingly, inverted stratification was observed even at moderate drying rates where the film Péclet numbers were comparable to unity, but the thickness of the stratified layer decreased. A model based on dynamical density functional theory is proposed to explain the observed phenomena.

  16. Thermal stratification in liquid storage tanks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christensen, D. L.; Han, S. M.

    1980-01-01

    Comprehensive literature survey indicates thermal stratification in solarenergy/liquid-storage tank improves system performance by as much as 15 percent. Collector efficiency increases when collector inlet fluid is drawn from bottom of storage tank, where fluid is coolest; warmest liquid drawn top of tank to satisfy thermal load.

  17. Stratification in Ap star atmospheres: Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cowley, Charles R.; Castelli, Fiorella

    2017-01-01

    It is now well established that the atmospheres of Ap stars can be chemically stratified (cf. Babel, A\\&A 258, 645, 1992; Ryabchikova et al. A\\&A 384, 545, 2002). The most convincing cases have been made with the profiles of very strong lines, such as Ca II K. Weaker line profiles are less obvious indicators. The collective behavior of sets or groups of lines have also been used. For example, if higher abundances are derived for strong lines in an atmosphere with zero microturbulence, one may assume that the absorbing species has been pushed into the higher photospheres. An example are the medium-strong Mn II lines in HgMn stars. In this paper, we probe this assumption by calculating line strengths with various assumed stratification models, and then determining abundances from those lines using an {\\bf unstratified} model with the same Teff and log(g). We use the model from Castelli, Kurucz \\& and Hubrig (A\\&A, 508, 401, 2009) for HR 6000, whose spectrum shows numerous indications of stratification. A variety of stratification models are considered, for example, ones where the majority of an absorbing species is concentrated above (or below) $log(\\tau_{5000}$ = -2.0. Cloud models are also investigated, where a species is concentrated within a range of photospheric depths. Curves of growth are generated in unstratified atmospheres for lines by holding the abundance fixed, and increasing log(gf). Similar curves are made in stratified models, and the ratios of strong to weak linesare compared with and without stratification. The effects of stratification on ionization are also investigated, as well as on the profiles of strong lines. We find, in agreement with previous work, that severe abundance jumps are sometimes required to account for some of the observed peculiarities.

  18. [Surgical therapeutic strategy in vital risk polytrauma with multiple organ injuries, case report].

    PubMed

    Munteanu, Iulia; Stefan, S; Isloi, Anca; Coca, I C; Baroi, Genoveva; Radu, L; Lăpuşneanu, A; Tamaş, Camelia

    2008-01-01

    The medical interest for trauma pathology is incresing, due to the gravity of the given injuries. The surgical therapeutic strategy used is directly related to the localization and to the type of the trauma. The supplementary lesions and their vital risk also matter. The multidisciplinary team approach is the key to resolve this type of lesions with a good outcome. We recently observed an increasing tendency toward the rise of number and variety of patients with trauma, due to the great diversity of the etiopathogenic agents. The most important factor, during the assessment of a politraumatised patient is to diagnose correctly the functional deficits of vital organs and establish the vital prognosis. It is necessary to adopt the best and fast therapeutic strategy in order to obtain rapid life-saving decisions.

  19. Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  20. Disclosure of medical injury to patients: an improbable risk management strategy.

    PubMed

    Studdert, David M; Mello, Michelle M; Gawande, Atul A; Brennan, Troyen A; Wang, Y Claire

    2007-01-01

    Pressure mounts on physicians and hospitals to disclose adverse outcomes of care to patients. Although such transparency diverges from traditional risk management strategy, recent commentary has suggested that disclosure will actually reduce providers' liability exposure. We tested this theory by modeling the litigation consequences of disclosure. We found that forecasts of reduced litigation volume or cost do not withstand close scrutiny. A policy question more pressing than whether moving toward routine disclosure will expand litigation is the question of how large such an expansion might be.

  1. Shared risk evaluation mitigation strategy for all immediate-release transmucosal fentanyl dosage forms.

    PubMed

    2012-06-01

    The Food and Drug Administration approved a single shared Risk Evaluation Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for transmucosal immediate-release fentanyl dosage forms in December 2011. This report describes the goals, elements, and restricted distribution system of the REMS designed to reduce risk of abuse, misuse, addiction, and overdose with the drugs. Questions and answers about REMS also are presented. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced a shared REMS for all immediate-release transmucosal fentanyl dosage forms on December 29, 2011, to become effective in March 2012. That announcement is accessible at: http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm285345.htm. Concurrently the FDA posted a series of questions and answers on this shared REMS at: http://http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DrugSafety/InformationbyDrugClass/ucm284717.htm. Both documents are in the public domain.

  2. Literature review and risk mitigation strategy for unintended consequences of computerized physician order entry.

    PubMed

    Cowan, Lisa

    2013-01-01

    Computerized physician order entry (CPOE) is a form of patient management health technology software used for providers to enter medical orders into a computer system. CPOE is a health care solution used to improve patient safety and quality of care, decrease costs, and reduce the risk of medical errors. However, there are unintended consequences to electronic health records that can actually cause an increase in medical errors. Two areas of concern that risk management practitioners need to monitor and analyze are the effects of CPOE on nurse-physician communication and operational workflows. A strategic proactive plan will reduce the likelihood of adverse events, specifically medication errors. Providers and nurses will require focused education on effective communication strategies and leadership will need to promote a culture of safety.

  3. Urban geochemistry: research strategies to assist risk assessment and remediation of brownfield sites in urban areas.

    PubMed

    Thornton, I; Farago, M E; Thums, C R; Parrish, R R; McGill, R A R; Breward, N; Fortey, N J; Simpson, P; Young, S D; Tye, A M; Crout, N M J; Hough, R L; Watt, J

    2008-12-01

    Urban geochemical maps of Wolverhampton and Nottingham, based on multielement analysis of surface soils, have shown distribution patterns of "total" metals concentrations relating to past and present industrial and domestic land use and transport systems. Several methods have been used to estimate the solubility and potential bioavailability of metals, their mineral forms and potential risks to urban population groups. These include sequential chemical extraction, soil pore water extraction and analysis, mineralogical analysis by scanning electron microscopy, source apportionment by lead isotope analysis and the development of models to predict metal uptake by homegrown vegetables to provide an estimate of risk from metal consumption and exposure. The results from these research strategies have been integrated with a geographical information system (GIS) to provide data for future land-use planning.

  4. A Comparative Review of Stratification Texts and Readers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peoples, Clayton D.

    2012-01-01

    Social stratification is a core substantive area within sociology. There are a number of textbooks and readers available on the market that deal with this central topic. In this article, I conduct a comparative review of (a) four stratification textbooks and (b) four stratification readers. (Contains 2 tables.)

  5. Effect of sample stratification on dairy GWAS results

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Background Artificial insemination and genetic selection are major factors contributing to population stratification in dairy cattle. In this study, we analyzed the effect of sample stratification and the effect of stratification correction on results of a dairy genome-wide association study (GWAS)....

  6. New strategy toward dioxin risk reduction for local residents surrounding severe dioxin hotspots in Vietnam

    PubMed Central

    Thi Tran, Tuyet-Hanh; Nguyen, Ngoc-Bich; Le, Vu-Anh

    2013-01-01

    Background A public health intervention program with active involvement of local related stakeholders was piloted in the Bien Hoa dioxin hotspot (2007–2009), and then expanded to the Da Nang dioxin hotspot in Vietnam (2009–2011). It aimed to reduce the risk of dioxin exposure of local residents through foods. This article presents the results of the intervention in Da Nang. Methodology To assess the results of this intervention program, pre- and post-intervention knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) surveys were implemented in 400 households, randomly selected from four wards surrounding the Da Nang Airbase in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Results After the intervention, the knowledge on the existence of dioxin in food, dioxin exposure pathways, potential high-risk foods, and preventive measures significantly increased (P<0.05). Ninety-eight percent were willing to follow advice on preventing dioxin exposure. Practices to reduce the risk of dioxin exposure also significantly improved (P<0.05). After intervention, 60.4% of households undertook exposure preventive measures, significantly higher than that of the pre-intervention survey (39.6%; χ2=40.15, P<0.001). High-risk foods had quite low rates of daily consumption (from 0 to 2.5%) and were significantly reduced (P<0.05). Conclusions This is seen as an effective intervention strategy toward reducing the risk of human exposure to dioxin at dioxin hotspots. While greater efforts are needed for remediating dioxin-polluted areas inside airbases, there is also evidence to suggest that, during the past four decades, pollution has expanded to the surrounding areas. For this reason, this model should be quickly expanded to the remaining dioxin hotspots in Vietnam to further reduce the exposure risks in other areas. PMID:23791241

  7. Colorectal cancer screening in the familial risk population: Is colonoscopy still the strategy of choice?

    PubMed

    Gimeno-García, Antonio Z; Hernández-Álvarez-de-Buylla, Noemi; Nicolás-Pérez, David; Carrillo, Marta; Hernández, Goretti; Quintero, Enrique

    2016-05-01

    First-degree relatives of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) are at high risk of this disease. For this reason, medical organizations and clinical guidelines recommend more intensive screening and surveillance for such first-degree relatives than for the average-risk population. Colonoscopy has been the cornerstone of CRC screening in this setting. Although colonoscopy is the most sensitive technique for the detection of neoplastic lesions (especially non-advanced adenomas), its role is less clear for CRC. In addition, screening colonoscopy has several limitations that may affect the success of a screening campaign, such as poor participant acceptance, the need for skilled endoscopists, participant access to screening colonoscopy, overburdened endoscopy units, potential complications, and procedure-related costs. In addition, recent evidence has cast doubt on the advantage of colonoscopy over other strategies for the detection of advanced neoplastic lesions. Despite being less sensitive in general, other screening methods frequently recommended in the average-risk population may be more acceptable and thus help increase CRC screening uptake. This review discusses recent evidence on the risk of CRC in first-degree relatives, the advantages and disadvantages of each screening technique, participation rates depending on the technique, patient preferences, and barriers to screening.

  8. Modeling strategy to identify patients with primary immunodeficiency utilizing risk management and outcome measurement.

    PubMed

    Modell, Vicki; Quinn, Jessica; Ginsberg, Grant; Gladue, Ron; Orange, Jordan; Modell, Fred

    2017-02-21

    This study seeks to generate analytic insights into risk management and probability of an identifiable primary immunodeficiency defect. The Jeffrey Modell Centers Network database, Jeffrey Modell Foundation's 10 Warning Signs, the 4 Stages of Testing Algorithm, physician-reported clinical outcomes, programs of physician education and public awareness, the SPIRIT® Analyzer, and newborn screening, taken together, generates P values of less than 0.05%. This indicates that the data results do not occur by chance, and that there is a better than 95% probability that the data are valid. The objectives are to improve patients' quality of life, while generating significant reduction of costs. The advances of the world's experts aligned with these JMF programs can generate analytic insights as to risk management and probability of an identifiable primary immunodeficiency defect. This strategy reduces the uncertainties related to primary immunodeficiency risks, as we can screen, test, identify, and treat undiagnosed patients. We can also address regional differences and prevalence, age, gender, treatment modalities, and sites of care, as well as economic benefits. These tools support high net benefits, substantial financial savings, and significant reduction of costs. All stakeholders, including patients, clinicians, pharmaceutical companies, third party payers, and government healthcare agencies, must address the earliest possible precise diagnosis, appropriate intervention and treatment, as well as stringent control of healthcare costs through risk assessment and outcome measurement. An affected patient is entitled to nothing less, and stakeholders are responsible to utilize tools currently available. Implementation offers a significant challenge to the entire primary immunodeficiency community.

  9. The Effects of Mediated Learning Strategies on Teacher Practice and on Students at Risk of Academic Failure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mann, Deborah; Hinds, Janet L.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this case study was to determine the effects of Reuven Feuerstein's ten Mediated Learning Strategies on both teacher practice and on students that were at risk of academic failure. Changes in both teacher practice and student learning were analyzed to determine changes during the use of the ten Mediated Learning Strategies: Meaning,…

  10. Risk stratification and stroke prevention therapy care gaps in Canadian atrial fibrillation patients (from the Co-ordinated National Network to Engage Physicians in the Care and Treatment of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation chart audit).

    PubMed

    Patel, Ashish D; Tan, Mary K; Angaran, Paul; Bell, Alan D; Berall, Murray; Bucci, Claudia; Demchuk, Andrew M; Essebag, Vidal; Goldin, Lianne; Green, Martin S; Gregoire, Jean C; Gross, Peter L; Heilbron, Brett; Lin, Peter J; Ramanathan, Krishnan; Skanes, Allan; Wheeler, Bruce H; Goodman, Shaun G

    2015-03-01

    The objectives of this national chart audit (January to June 2013) of 6,346 patients with atrial fibrillation (AF; ≥18 years without a significant heart valve disorder) from 647 primary care physicians were to (1) describe the frequency of stroke and bleed risk assessments in patients with nonvalvular AF by primary care physicians, including the accuracy of these assessments relative to established predictive indexes; (2) outline contemporary methods of anticoagulation used; and (3) report the time in the therapeutic range among patients prescribed warfarin. An annual stroke risk assessment was not undertaken in 15% and estimated without a formal risk tool in 33%; agreement with CHADS2 score estimation was seen in 87% of patients. Major bleeding risk assessment was not undertaken in 25% and estimated without a formal risk tool in 47%; agreement with HAS-BLED score estimation was observed in 64% with physician overestimation in 26% of patients. Antithrombotic therapy included warfarin (58%), dabigatran (22%), rivaroxaban (14%), and apixaban (<1%). Among warfarin-treated patients, the median international normalized ratio was 2.4 and time in therapeutic range (TTR) was 73%; however, the TTR was <50% in 845 (25%), 50% to 69% in 674 (20%), and ≥70% in 1,827 (55%) patients. In conclusion, we describe a contemporary real-world elderly population with AF at important risk for stroke. There is apparent overestimation of bleeding risk in many patients. Warfarin was the dominant stroke prevention treatment; however, the suggested TTR target was achieved in only 55% of these patients.

  11. Risk-Reduction Strategies to Expand Radon Care Planning with Vulnerable Groups

    PubMed Central

    Larsson, Laura S.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in the United States and the leading cause of lung cancer among nonsmokers. Residential radon is the cause of approximately 21,000 U.S. lung cancer deaths each year. Dangerous levels of radon are just as likely to be found in low-rise apartments and townhomes as single-family homes in the same area. The preferred radon mitigation strategy can be expensive and requires structural modifications to the home. The public health nurse (PHN) needs a collection of low-cost alternatives when working with low-income families or families who rent their homes. Method A review of the literature was performed to identify evidence-based methods to reduce radon risk with vulnerable populations. Results Fourteen recommendations for radon risk reduction were categorized into four strategies. Nine additional activities for raising awareness and increasing testing were also included. Discussion The results pair the PHN with practical interventions and the underlying rationale to develop radon careplans with vulnerable families across housing types. The PHN has both the competence and the access to help families reduce their exposure to this potent carcinogen. PMID:24547763

  12. Salt, blood pressure and cardiovascular risk: what is the most adequate preventive strategy? A Swiss perspective

    PubMed Central

    Burnier, Michel; Wuerzner, Gregoire; Bochud, Murielle

    2015-01-01

    Among the various strategies to reduce the incidence of non-communicable diseases reduction of sodium intake in the general population has been recognized as one of the most cost-effective means because of its potential impact on the development of hypertension and cardiovascular diseases. Yet, this strategic health recommendation of the WHO and many other international organizations is far from being universally accepted. Indeed, there are still several unresolved scientific and epidemiological questions that maintain an ongoing debate. Thus what is the adequate low level of sodium intake to recommend to the general population and whether national strategies should be oriented to the overall population or only to higher risk fractions of the population such as salt-sensitive patients are still discussed. In this paper, we shall review the recent results of the literature regarding salt, blood pressure and cardiovascular risk and we present the recommendations recently proposed by a group of experts of Switzerland. The propositions of the participating medical societies are to encourage national health authorities to continue their discussion with the food industry in order to reduce the sodium intake of food products with a target of mean salt intake of 5–6 grams per day in the population. Moreover, all initiatives to increase the information on the effect of salt on health and on the salt content of food are supported. PMID:26321959

  13. Significant factors of aviation insurance and risk management strategy: an empirical study of Taiwanese airline carriers.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yi Hsin; Chang, Yu Hern

    2008-04-01

    Aviation insurance premiums have become a heavy burden for the airline industry since September 11, 2001. Although the industry must constantly balance its operations between profitability and safety, the reality is that airlines are in the business of making money. Therefore, their ability to reduce cost and manage risk is a key factor for success. Unlike past research, which used subjective judgment methods, this study applied quantitative historical data (1999-2000) and gray relation analysis to identify the primary factors influencing ratemaking for aviation insurance premiums. An empirical study of six airlines in Taiwan was conducted to determine these factors and to analyze the management strategies used to deal with them. Results showed that the loss experience and performance of individual airlines were the key elements associated with aviation insurance premiums paid by each airline. By identifying and understanding the primary factors influencing ratemaking for aviation insurance, airlines will better understand their relative operational strengths and weaknesses, and further help top management identify areas for further improvement. Knowledge of these factors combined with effective risk management strategies, may result in lower premiums and operating costs for airline companies.

  14. Stratification of ALS patients' survival: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Marin, Benoît; Couratier, Philippe; Arcuti, Simona; Copetti, Massimiliano; Fontana, Andrea; Nicol, Marie; Raymondeau, Marie; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Preux, Pierre Marie

    2016-01-01

    The natural history of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and patient risk stratification are areas of considerable research interest. We aimed (1) to describe the survival of a representative cohort of French ALS patients, and (2) to identify covariates associated with various patterns of survival using a risk classification analysis. ALS patients recruited in the FRALim register (2000-2013) were included. Time-to-death analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier method and Cox model. A recursive partitioning and amalgamation (RECPAM) algorithm analysis identified subgroups of patients with different patterns of survival. Among 322 patients, median survival times were 26.2 and 15.6 months from time of onset and of diagnosis, respectively. Four groups of patients were identified, depending on their baseline characteristics and survival (1) ALSFRS-R slope >0.46/month and definite or probable ALS (median survival time (MST) 10.6 months); (2) ALSFRS-R slope >0.46/month and possible or probable laboratory-supported ALS (MST: 18.1 months); (3) ALSFRS-R slope ≤0.46/month and definite or probable ALS (MST: 22.5 months), and (4) ALSFRS-R slope ≤0.46/month and possible or probable laboratory-supported ALS (MST: 37.6 months). Median survival time is among the shortest ever reported by a worldwide population-based study. This is probably related to the age structure of the patients (the oldest identified to date), driven by the underlying population (30 % of subjects older than 60 years). Further research in the field of risk stratification could help physicians better anticipate prognosis of ALS patients, and help improve the design of randomized controlled trials.

  15. NASA's Agency-wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duda, Kristen; Scroggins. Sharon

    2008-01-01

    NASA's mission is to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research. To help enable existing and future programs to pursue this mission, NASA has established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) to proactively identify, analyze, and communicate environmental regulatory risks to the NASA community. The RRAC PC is chartered to evaluate the risks posed to NASA Programs and facilities by environmentally related drivers. The RRAC PC focuses on emerging environmental regulations, as well as risks related to operational changes that can trigger existing environmental requirements. Changing regulations have the potential to directly affect program activities. For example, regulatory changes can restrict certain activities or operations by mandating changes in how operations may be done or limiting where or how certain operations can take place. Regulatory changes also can directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage aPi'iications of certain materials. Such changes can result in NASA undertaking material replacement efforts. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented several strategies for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA Programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the lessons learned through establishing the RRAC PC, the process by which the RRAC PC monitors and distributes information about emerging regulatory requirements, and the cross

  16. NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duda, Kristen; Scroggins, Sharon

    2008-01-01

    NASA's mission is to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research. To help enable existing and future programs to pursue this mission, NASA has established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) to proactively identify, analyze, and communicate environmental regulatory risks to the NASA community. The RRAC PC is chartered to evaluate the risks posed to NASA Programs and facilities by environmentally related drivers. The RRAC PC focuses on emerging environmental regulations, as well as risks related to operational changes that can trigger existing environmental requirements. Changing regulations have the potential to directly affect program activities. For example, regulatory changes can restrict certain activities or operations by mandating changes in how operations may be done or limiting where or how certain operations can take place. Regulatory changes also can directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Such changes can result in NASA undertaking material replacement efforts. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented several strategies for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA Programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the lessons learned through establishing the RRAC PC, the process by which the RRAC PC monitors and distributes information about emerging regulatory requirements, and the cross

  17. Risks, benefits and survival strategies-views from female sex workers in Savannakhet, Laos

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Female sex workers (FSWs) are vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and encounter socio-economic and health problems, including STIs/HIV, unintended pregnancy and complications from unsafe abortion, stigma, violence, and drug addiction. Reducing risks associated with sex work requires an understanding of the social and cultural context in which sex workers live and work. This study aimed to explore the working environment and perceived risks among FSWs in Savannakhet province in Laos. Methods Five focus group discussions (FGDs) and seven interviews were conducted with FSWs in Kaysone Phomvihan district in Laos. Latent content analysis was used to analyze the transcribed text. Results The results revealed that the FSWs were aware of risks but they also talked about benefits related to their work. The risks were grouped into six categories: STIs/HIV, unintended pregnancy, stigma, violence, being cheated, and social and economic insecurity. The reported benefits were financial security, fulfilling social obligations, and sexual pleasure. The FSWs reported using a number of strategies to reduce risks and increase benefits. Conclusions The desire to be self-sufficient and earn as much money as possible put the FSWs in disadvantaged and vulnerable situations. Fear of financial insecurity, obligations to support one’s family and the need to secure the future influenced FSWs’ decisions to have safe or unsafe sex. The FSWs were, however, not only victims. They also had some control over their lives and working environment, with most viewing their work as an easy and good way of earning money. PMID:23164407

  18. Deep circulations under simple classes of stratification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Salby, Murry L.

    1989-01-01

    Deep circulations where the motion field is vertically aligned over one or more scale heights are studied under barotropic and equivalent barotropic stratifications. The study uses two-dimensional equations reduced from the three-dimensional primitive equations in spherical geometry. A mapping is established between the full primitive equations and general shallow water behavior and the correspondence between variables describing deep atmospheric motion and those of shallow water behavior is established.

  19. Obesity, Oxidative Stress, Adipose Tissue Dysfunction, and the Associated Health Risks: Causes and Therapeutic Strategies.

    PubMed

    Manna, Prasenjit; Jain, Sushil K

    2015-12-01

    Obesity is gaining acceptance as a serious primary health burden that impairs the quality of life because of its associated complications, including diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, asthma, sleep disorders, hepatic dysfunction, renal dysfunction, and infertility. It is a complex metabolic disorder with a multifactorial origin. Growing evidence suggests that oxidative stress plays a role as the critical factor linking obesity with its associated complications. Obesity per se can induce systemic oxidative stress through various biochemical mechanisms, such as superoxide generation from NADPH oxidases, oxidative phosphorylation, glyceraldehyde auto-oxidation, protein kinase C activation, and polyol and hexosamine pathways. Other factors that also contribute to oxidative stress in obesity include hyperleptinemia, low antioxidant defense, chronic inflammation, and postprandial reactive oxygen species generation. In addition, recent studies suggest that adipose tissue plays a critical role in regulating the pathophysiological mechanisms of obesity and its related co-morbidities. To establish an adequate platform for the prevention of obesity and its associated health risks, understanding the factors that contribute to the cause of obesity is necessary. The most current list of obesity determinants includes genetic factors, dietary intake, physical activity, environmental and socioeconomic factors, eating disorders, and societal influences. On the basis of the currently identified predominant determinants of obesity, a broad range of strategies have been recommended to reduce the prevalence of obesity, such as regular physical activity, ad libitum food intake limiting to certain micronutrients, increased dietary intake of fruits and vegetables, and meal replacements. This review aims to highlight recent findings regarding the role of oxidative stress in the pathogenesis of obesity and its associated risk factors, the role of dysfunctional adipose tissue in

  20. Obesity, Oxidative Stress, Adipose Tissue Dysfunction, and the Associated Health Risks: Causes and Therapeutic Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Manna, Prasenjit

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Obesity is gaining acceptance as a serious primary health burden that impairs the quality of life because of its associated complications, including diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, asthma, sleep disorders, hepatic dysfunction, renal dysfunction, and infertility. It is a complex metabolic disorder with a multifactorial origin. Growing evidence suggests that oxidative stress plays a role as the critical factor linking obesity with its associated complications. Obesity per se can induce systemic oxidative stress through various biochemical mechanisms, such as superoxide generation from NADPH oxidases, oxidative phosphorylation, glyceraldehyde auto-oxidation, protein kinase C activation, and polyol and hexosamine pathways. Other factors that also contribute to oxidative stress in obesity include hyperleptinemia, low antioxidant defense, chronic inflammation, and postprandial reactive oxygen species generation. In addition, recent studies suggest that adipose tissue plays a critical role in regulating the pathophysiological mechanisms of obesity and its related co-morbidities. To establish an adequate platform for the prevention of obesity and its associated health risks, understanding the factors that contribute to the cause of obesity is necessary. The most current list of obesity determinants includes genetic factors, dietary intake, physical activity, environmental and socioeconomic factors, eating disorders, and societal influences. On the basis of the currently identified predominant determinants of obesity, a broad range of strategies have been recommended to reduce the prevalence of obesity, such as regular physical activity, ad libitum food intake limiting to certain micronutrients, increased dietary intake of fruits and vegetables, and meal replacements. This review aims to highlight recent findings regarding the role of oxidative stress in the pathogenesis of obesity and its associated risk factors, the role of dysfunctional adipose tissue

  1. Drainage and Stratification Kinetics of Foam Films

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yiran; Sharma, Vivek

    2014-03-01

    Baking bread, brewing cappuccino, pouring beer, washing dishes, shaving, shampooing, whipping eggs and blowing bubbles all involve creation of aqueous foam films. Foam lifetime, drainage kinetics and stability are strongly influenced by surfactant type (ionic vs non-ionic), and added proteins, particles or polymers modify typical responses. The rate at which fluid drains out from a foam film, i.e. drainage kinetics, is determined in the last stages primarily by molecular interactions and capillarity. Interestingly, for certain low molecular weight surfactants, colloids and polyelectrolyte-surfactant mixtures, a layered ordering of molecules, micelles or particles inside the foam films leads to a stepwise thinning phenomena called stratification. Though stratification is observed in many confined systems including foam films containing particles or polyelectrolytes, films containing globular proteins seem not to show this behavior. Using a Scheludko-type cell, we experimentally study the drainage and stratification kinetics of horizontal foam films formed by protein-surfactant mixtures, and carefully determine how the presence of proteins influences the hydrodynamics and thermodynamics of foam films.

  2. Temperature Stratification in a Cryogenic Fuel Tank

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew John; Smelyanskiy, Vadim; Boschee, Jacob; Foygel, Michael Gregory

    2013-01-01

    A reduced dynamical model describing temperature stratification effects driven by natural convection in a liquid hydrogen cryogenic fuel tank has been developed. It accounts for cryogenic propellant loading, storage, and unloading in the conditions of normal, increased, and micro- gravity. The model involves multiple horizontal control volumes in both liquid and ullage spaces. Temperature and velocity boundary layers at the tank walls are taken into account by using correlation relations. Heat exchange involving the tank wall is considered by means of the lumped-parameter method. By employing basic conservation laws, the model takes into consideration the major multi-phase mass and energy exchange processes involved, such as condensation-evaporation of the hydrogen, as well as flows of hydrogen liquid and vapor in the presence of pressurizing helium gas. The model involves a liquid hydrogen feed line and a tank ullage vent valve for pressure control. The temperature stratification effects are investigated, including in the presence of vent valve oscillations. A simulation of temperature stratification effects in a generic cryogenic tank has been implemented in Matlab and results are presented for various tank conditions.

  3. Improvement of the Outcome of Relapsed or Refractory Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia in Children Using a Risk-Based Treatment Strategy

    PubMed Central

    Ceppi, Francesco; Duval, Michel; Leclerc, Jean-Marie; Laverdiere, Caroline; Delva, Yves-Line; Cellot, Sonia; Teira, Pierre; Bittencourt, Henrique

    2016-01-01

    Relapsed/refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is a leading cause of death by cancer in children. Our institution has switched relapse treatment strategy to improve survival. We reviewed records of first relapse/refractory childhood ALL between 1996 and 2012. Based on length of first remission, relapse site and immunophenotype, patients were classified into two groups: standard-risk relapse (SRR) and high-risk relapse and refractory (HRRR). Before 2007, all patients were uniformly treated with the same induction as at presentation, followed by hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Since 2007, treatment was given according to risk of failure: SRR were mostly treated with chemotherapy; HRRR patients underwent HSCT after intensive chemotherapy, aiming reduction of pre-transplant disease burden. Sixty-four patients were included. Thirty (47%) were SRR and 34 (53%) HRRR, including 11 with refractory ALL. Five-years overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) were similar for SRR, but were significantly higher with new risk-based strategy for HRRR: 56% versus 17% (P = 0.03) for OS, and 56% vs 11% for EFS (P = 0.008), respectively. In multivariate analysis, treatment strategy was significantly associated with survival. In conclusion, change for a risk-based strategy in our institution increased survival of high-risk patients to levels similar of those of standard-risk patients. PMID:27632202

  4. Improvement of the Outcome of Relapsed or Refractory Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia in Children Using a Risk-Based Treatment Strategy.

    PubMed

    Ceppi, Francesco; Duval, Michel; Leclerc, Jean-Marie; Laverdiere, Caroline; Delva, Yves-Line; Cellot, Sonia; Teira, Pierre; Bittencourt, Henrique

    2016-01-01

    Relapsed/refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is a leading cause of death by cancer in children. Our institution has switched relapse treatment strategy to improve survival. We reviewed records of first relapse/refractory childhood ALL between 1996 and 2012. Based on length of first remission, relapse site and immunophenotype, patients were classified into two groups: standard-risk relapse (SRR) and high-risk relapse and refractory (HRRR). Before 2007, all patients were uniformly treated with the same induction as at presentation, followed by hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Since 2007, treatment was given according to risk of failure: SRR were mostly treated with chemotherapy; HRRR patients underwent HSCT after intensive chemotherapy, aiming reduction of pre-transplant disease burden. Sixty-four patients were included. Thirty (47%) were SRR and 34 (53%) HRRR, including 11 with refractory ALL. Five-years overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) were similar for SRR, but were significantly higher with new risk-based strategy for HRRR: 56% versus 17% (P = 0.03) for OS, and 56% vs 11% for EFS (P = 0.008), respectively. In multivariate analysis, treatment strategy was significantly associated with survival. In conclusion, change for a risk-based strategy in our institution increased survival of high-risk patients to levels similar of those of standard-risk patients.

  5. Anemia, bleeding, and blood transfusion in the intensive care unit: causes, risks, costs, and new strategies.

    PubMed

    McEvoy, Michael T; Shander, Aryeh

    2013-11-01

    The definition of anemia is controversial and varies with the sex, age, and ethnicity of the patient. Anemia afflicts half of hospitalized patients and most elderly hospitalized patients. Acute anemia in the operating room or intensive care unit is associated with increased morbidity as well as other adverse outcomes, including death. The risks of anemia are compounded by the added risks associated with transfusion of red blood cells, the most common treatment for severe anemia. The causes of anemia in hospitalized patients include iron deficiency, suppression of erythropoietin and iron transport, trauma, phlebotomy, coagulopathies, adverse effects of and reactions to medications, and stress-induced gastrointestinal bleeding. The types and causes of anemia and the increased health care utilization and costs associated with anemia and undetected internal bleeding are described. The potential benefits and risks associated with transfusion of red blood cells also are explored. Last, the strategies and new tools to help prevent anemia, allow earlier detection of internal bleeding, and avoid unnecessary blood transfusions are discussed.

  6. [AML treatment strategy based on cytogenetic abnormalities and somatic mutations].

    PubMed

    Imai, Yoichi

    2015-10-01

    In addition to morphological and histocytochemical analyses of acute myeloid leukemia (AML), data on cytogenetic abnormalities and somatic mutations are used for classification of AML. The risk stratification based on these examinations facilitates determining the treatment strategy for AML. Cytogenetic risk category definitions by the Southwest Oncology Group (SWOG), Cancer and Leukemia Group B (CALGB), and The Medical Research Council (MRC) classify AML patients into favorable, intermediate, and adverse groups. Approximately 80% of patients in the intermediate group have a normal karyotype and the importance of molecular genetic analyses in these patients is increasing. Somatic mutations of NPM1, CEBPA, and FLT3 are known to be related to the prognosis of AML patients. The European LeukemiaNet (ELN) introduced risk stratification for AML patients based on cytogenetic abnormalities and NPM1, CEBPA, and FLT3 mutations. This risk stratification can be used to select only chemotherapy or chemotherapy with allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation as consolidation therapy for individual AML patients. Development of molecular targeted therapies against FLT3 or IDH mutations is in progress and these novel therapies are expected to contribute to improving the prognosis of AML patients.

  7. Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biass, S.; Gregg, C. E.; Frischknecht, C.; Falcone, J. L.; Lestuzzi, P.; di Traglia, F.; Rosi, M.; Bonadonna, C.

    2014-12-01

    A comprehensive risk assessment framework was built to develop proactive risk reduction measures for Vulcano Island, Italy. This framework includes identification of eruption scenarios; probabilistic hazard assessment, quantification of hazard impacts on the built environment, accessibility assessment on the island and risk perception study. Vulcano, a 21 km2 island with two primary communities host to 900 permanent residents and up to 10,000 visitors during summer, shows a strong dependency on the mainland for basic needs (water, energy) and relies on a ~2 month tourism season for its economy. The recent stratigraphy reveals a dominance of vulcanian and subplinian eruptions, producing a range of hazards acting at different time scales. We developed new methods to probabilistically quantify the hazard related to ballistics, lahars and tephra for all eruption styles. We also elaborated field- and GIS- based methods to assess the physical vulnerability of the built environment and created dynamic models of accessibility. Results outline the difference of hazard between short and long-lasting eruptions. A subplinian eruption has a 50% probability of impacting ~30% of the buildings within days after the eruption, but the year-long damage resulting from a long-lasting vulcanian eruption is similar if tephra is not removed from rooftops. Similarly, a subplinian eruption results in a volume of 7x105 m3 of material potentially remobilized into lahars soon after the eruption. Similar volumes are expected for a vulcanian activity over years, increasing the hazard of small lahars. Preferential lahar paths affect critical infrastructures lacking redundancy, such as the road network, communications systems, the island's only gas station, and access to the island's two evacuation ports. Such results from hazard, physical and systemic vulnerability help establish proactive volcanic risk mitigation strategies and may be applicable in other island settings.

  8. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies to reduce non-structural damage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sousa Oliveira, Carlos; Lopes, Mário; Mota de Sá, Francisco; Amaral Ferreia, Mónica; Candeias, Paulo; Campos Costa, Alfredo; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Meroni, Fabrizio; Azzaro, Raffaele; D'Amico, Salvatore; Langer, Horst; Musacchio, Gemma; Sousa Silva, Delta; Falsaperla, Susanna; Scarfì, Luciano; Tusa, Giuseppina; Tuvé, Tiziana

    2016-04-01

    The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. Non-structural components of a building include all those components that are not part of the structural system, more specifically the architectura