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Sample records for risk stratification strategy

  1. Thrombocytosis: Diagnostic Evaluation, Thrombotic Risk Stratification, and Risk-Based Management Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Bleeker, Jonathan S.; Hogan, William J.

    2011-01-01

    Thrombocytosis is a commonly encountered clinical scenario, with a large proportion of cases discovered incidentally. The differential diagnosis for thrombocytosis is broad and the diagnostic process can be challenging. Thrombocytosis can be spurious, attributed to a reactive process or due to clonal disorder. This distinction is important as it carries implications for evaluation, prognosis, and treatment. Clonal thrombocytosis associated with the myeloproliferative neoplasms, especially essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera, carries a unique prognostic profile, with a markedly increased risk of thrombosis. This risk is the driving factor behind treatment strategies in these disorders. Clinical trials utilizing targeted therapies in thrombocytosis are ongoing with new therapeutic targets waiting to be explored. This paper will outline the mechanisms underlying thrombocytosis, the diagnostic evaluation of thrombocytosis, complications of thrombocytosis with a special focus on thrombotic risk as well as treatment options for clonal processes leading to thrombocytosis, including essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera. PMID:22084665

  2. Caprini Scores, Risk Stratification, and Rivaroxaban in Plastic Surgery: Time to Reconsider Our Strategy.

    PubMed

    Swanson, Eric

    2016-06-01

    Limited data are available regarding the pathophysiology of venous thromboembolism in plastic surgery patients. In an effort to identify patients at greater risk, some investigators promote individual risk assessment using Caprini scores. However, these scores do not correlate with relative risk values. Affected patients cannot be reliably predicted (97% false positive rate). Caprini scores make many body contouring patients candidates for chemoprophylaxis, an intervention that introduces risks related to anticoagulation. Caprini has financial conflicts with several companies that manufacture products such as enoxaparin, commonly used for chemoprophylaxis. Rivaroxaban, taken orally, has been used by some plastic surgeons as an alternative to enoxaparin injections. However, this medication is not United States Food and Drug Administration approved for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in plastic surgery patients, and a reversal agent is unavailable. This article challenges the prevailing wisdom regarding individual risk stratification and chemoprophylaxis. Alternative methods to reduce risk for all patients include safer anesthesia methods and Doppler ultrasound surveillance. Clinical findings alone are unreliable in diagnosing deep venous thromboses. Only by using a reliable diagnostic tool such as Doppler ultrasound are we able to learn more about the natural history of this problem in our patients. Such knowledge is likely to better inform our treatment recommendations. PMID:27482481

  3. Caprini Scores, Risk Stratification, and Rivaroxaban in Plastic Surgery: Time to Reconsider Our Strategy

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Summary: Limited data are available regarding the pathophysiology of venous thromboembolism in plastic surgery patients. In an effort to identify patients at greater risk, some investigators promote individual risk assessment using Caprini scores. However, these scores do not correlate with relative risk values. Affected patients cannot be reliably predicted (97% false positive rate). Caprini scores make many body contouring patients candidates for chemoprophylaxis, an intervention that introduces risks related to anticoagulation. Caprini has financial conflicts with several companies that manufacture products such as enoxaparin, commonly used for chemoprophylaxis. Rivaroxaban, taken orally, has been used by some plastic surgeons as an alternative to enoxaparin injections. However, this medication is not United States Food and Drug Administration approved for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in plastic surgery patients, and a reversal agent is unavailable. This article challenges the prevailing wisdom regarding individual risk stratification and chemoprophylaxis. Alternative methods to reduce risk for all patients include safer anesthesia methods and Doppler ultrasound surveillance. Clinical findings alone are unreliable in diagnosing deep venous thromboses. Only by using a reliable diagnostic tool such as Doppler ultrasound are we able to learn more about the natural history of this problem in our patients. Such knowledge is likely to better inform our treatment recommendations. PMID:27482481

  4. Sudden cardiac death risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Deyell, Marc W; Krahn, Andrew D; Goldberger, Jeffrey J

    2015-06-01

    Arrhythmic sudden cardiac death (SCD) may be caused by ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation or pulseless electric activity/asystole. Effective risk stratification to identify patients at risk of arrhythmic SCD is essential for targeting our healthcare and research resources to tackle this important public health issue. Although our understanding of SCD because of pulseless electric activity/asystole is growing, the overwhelming majority of research in risk stratification has focused on SCD-ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation. This review focuses on existing and novel risk stratification tools for SCD-ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation. For patients with left ventricular dysfunction or myocardial infarction, advances in imaging, measures of cardiac autonomic function, and measures of repolarization have shown considerable promise in refining risk. Yet the majority of SCD-ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation occurs in patients without known cardiac disease. Biomarkers and novel imaging techniques may provide further risk stratification in the general population beyond traditional risk stratification for coronary artery disease alone. Despite these advances, significant challenges in risk stratification remain that must be overcome before a meaningful impact on SCD can be realized.

  5. Sudden Cardiac Death Risk Stratification

    PubMed Central

    Deyell, Marc W.; Krahn, Andrew D.; Goldberger, Jeffrey J.

    2015-01-01

    Arrhythmic sudden cardiac death (SCD) may be due to ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation (SCD-VT/VF) or pulseless electrical activity/asystole. Effective risk stratification to identify patients at risk of arrhythmic SCD is essential for targeting our health care and research resources to tackle this important public health issue. Although our understanding of SCD due to pulseless electrical activity/asystole is growing, the overwhelming majority of research in risk stratification has focused on SCD-VT/VF. This review focuses on existing and novel risk stratification tools for SCD-VT/VF. For patients with left ventricular dysfunction and/or myocardial infarction, advances in imaging, measures of cardiac autonomic function, and measures of repolarization have shown considerable promise in refining risk. Yet the majority of SCD-VT/VF occurs in patients without known cardiac disease. Biomarkers and novel imaging techniques may provide further risk stratification in the general population beyond traditional risk stratification for coronary artery disease alone. Despite these advances, significant challenges in risk stratification remain that must be overcome before a meaningful impact on SCD can be realized. PMID:26044247

  6. Risk stratification for COPD diagnosis through an active search strategy in primary care

    PubMed Central

    Marcos, Pedro J; Malo de Molina, Rosa; Casamor, Ricard

    2016-01-01

    Background The aim of this study was to identify the percentage of undiagnosed patients with COPD through the implementation of an active search strategy in a selected subject population. Methods An observational, cross-sectional, multicenter study was conducted in a primary care setting in Spain. General practitioners gave their diagnostic impression of COPD (yes/no) on the basis of clinical criteria of subjects with respiratory symptoms and tobacco exposure. Subsequently, post-bronchodilator spirometry and quality-of-life tests were performed. Multivariate logistic regression techniques using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to identify the combination of variables that best discriminates COPD. Results A total of 2,758 patients were screened at 368 primary care centers, of which 1,725 patients were included in the study. Seven hundred and ninety-three patients (46%) were diagnosed with COPD. Clinical judgment resulted in suspected COPD in 1,393 (81%) of the subjects. The best variables to discriminate COPD were a history of lower respiratory tract infections, cough, and dyspnea. This combination identified COPD with a ROCAUC of 0.61 denoting a poor discriminative ability. Conclusion Employing an active search strategy leads to a new COPD diagnosis in almost half of the subjects. Screening of COPD with post-bronchodilator spirometry should be considered mandatory for any high-risk subject visiting the general practitioner clinic for any reason. PMID:27042035

  7. Is risk stratification ever the same as 'profiling'?

    PubMed

    Braithwaite, R Scott; Stevens, Elizabeth R; Caplan, Arthur

    2016-05-01

    Physicians engage in risk stratification as a normative part of their professional duties. Risk stratification has the potential to be beneficial in many ways, and implicit recognition of this potential benefit underlies its acceptance as a cornerstone of the medical profession. However, risk stratification also has the potential to be harmful. We argue that 'profiling' is a term that corresponds to risk stratification strategies in which there is concern that ethical harms exceed likely or proven benefits. In the case of risk stratification for health goals, this would occur most frequently if benefits were obtained by threats to justice, autonomy or privacy. We discuss implications of the potential overlap between risk stratification and profiling for researchers and for clinicians, and we consider whether there are salient characteristics that make a particular risk stratification algorithm more or less likely to overlap with profiling, such as whether the risk stratification algorithm is based on voluntary versus non-voluntary characteristics, based on causal versus non-causal characteristics, or based on signifiers of historical disadvantage. We also discuss the ethical challenges created when a risk stratification scheme helps all subgroups but some more than others, or when risk stratification harms some subgroups but benefits the aggregate group.

  8. Risk stratification for sudden cardiac death

    PubMed Central

    Cutler, Michael J; Rosenbaum, David S.

    2009-01-01

    The proportion of cardiovascular deaths attributable to sudden cardiac death (SCD) is on the rise. Herein lies the rationale for developing risk stratification strategies to predict who will benefit from prophylactic ICD implantation. Current guidelines recommend prophylactic ICD therapy in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). However, there are clear limitations in using LVEF alone to decide who should receive an ICD. There is mounting evidence that microvolt-level T wave alternans (TWA) is an important marker of arrhythmic risk. TWA is appealing because it non-invasively probes underlying electrophysiological substrate and has been linked to cellular mechanisms for arrhythmias. This review considers the clinical role of TWA for risk stratification of SCD. PMID:19631909

  9. Modern risk stratification in coronary heart disease.

    PubMed

    Ginghina, C; Bejan, I; Ceck, C D

    2011-11-14

    The prevalence and impact of cardiovascular diseases in the world are growing. There are 2 million deaths due to cardiovascular disease each year in the European Union; the main cause of death being the coronary heart disease responsible for 16% of deaths in men and 15% in women. Prevalence of cardiovascular disease in Romania is estimated at 7 million people, of which 2.8 million have ischemic heart disease. In this epidemiological context, risk stratification is required for individualization of therapeutic strategies for each patient. The continuing evolution of the diagnosis and treatment techniques combines personalized medicine with the trend of therapeutic management leveling, based on guidelines and consensus, which are in constant update. The guidelines used in clinical practice have involved risk stratification and identification of patient groups in whom the risk-benefit ratio of using new diagnostic and therapeutic techniques has a positive value. Presence of several risk factors may indicate a more important total risk than the presence / significant increase from normal values of a single risk factor. Modern trends in risk stratification of patients with coronary heart disease are polarized between the use of simple data versus complex scores, traditional data versus new risk factors, generally valid scores versus personalized scores, depending on patient characteristics, type of coronary artery disease, with impact on the suggested therapy. All known information and techniques can be integrated in a complex system of risk assessment. The current trend in risk assessment is to identify coronary artery disease in early forms, before clinical manifestation, and to guide therapy, particularly in patients with intermediate risk, which can be classified in another class of risk based on new obtained information.

  10. Modern risk stratification in coronary heart disease

    PubMed Central

    Ginghina, C.; Bejan, I.; Ceck, C.D.

    2011-01-01

    The prevalence and impact of cardiovascular diseases in the world are growing. There are 2 million deaths due to cardiovascular disease each year in the European Union; the main cause of death being the coronary heart disease responsible for 16% of deaths in men and 15% in women. Prevalence of cardiovascular disease in Romania is estimated at 7 million people, of which 2.8 million have ischemic heart disease. In this epidemiological context, risk stratification is required for individualization of therapeutic strategies for each patient. The continuing evolution of the diagnosis and treatment techniques combines personalized medicine with the trend of therapeutic management leveling, based on guidelines and consensus, which are in constant update. The guidelines used in clinical practice have involved risk stratification and identification of patient groups in whom the risk-benefit ratio of using new diagnostic and therapeutic techniques has a positive value. Presence of several risk factors may indicate a more important total risk than the presence / significant increase from normal values of a single risk factor. Modern trends in risk stratification of patients with coronary heart disease are polarized between the use of simple data versus complex scores, traditional data versus new risk factors, generally valid scores versus personalized scores, depending on patient characteristics, type of coronary artery disease, with impact on the suggested therapy. All known information and techniques can be integrated in a complex system of risk assessment. The current trend in risk assessment is to identify coronary artery disease in early forms, before clinical manifestation, and to guide therapy, particularly in patients with intermediate risk, which can be classified in another class of risk based on new obtained information. Abbreviations: ACS = acute coronary syndrome; AMI = acute myocardial infarction; BNP = brain natriuretic peptide; BP = blood pressure; BPs

  11. [Primary and secondary prevention of arteriosclerosis. Risk stratification of hypertension].

    PubMed

    Gysan, D B

    2002-10-01

    Hypertension is one of the important risk factors in the pathogenesis of arteriosclerosis. The differences between primary and secondary prevention in diagnosis and therapeutic strategies are reviewed from international studies. The optimal therapy for hypertension and risk stratification, including all other risk factors, will reduce the incidence and mortality of coronary heart disease and stroke. PMID:12395218

  12. Towards actionable risk stratification: a bilinear approach.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiang; Wang, Fei; Hu, Jianying; Sorrentino, Robert

    2015-02-01

    Risk stratification is instrumental to modern clinical decision support systems. Comprehensive risk stratification should be able to provide the clinicians with not only the accurate assessment of a patient's risk but also the clinical context to be acted upon. However, existing risk stratification techniques mainly focus on predicting the risk score for individual patients; at the cohort level, they offer little insight beyond a flat score-based segmentation. This essentially reduces a patient to a score and thus removes him/her from his/her clinical context. To address this limitation, in this paper we propose a bilinear model for risk stratification that simultaneously captures the three key aspects of risk stratification: (1) it predicts the risk of each individual patient; (2) it stratifies the patient cohort based on not only the risk score but also the clinical characteristics; and (3) it embeds all patients into clinical contexts with clear interpretation. We apply our model to a cohort of 4977 patients, 1127 among which were diagnosed with Congestive Heart Failure (CHF). We demonstrate that our model cannot only accurately predict the onset risk of CHF but also provide rich and actionable clinical insights into the patient cohort.

  13. Risk stratification for sudden cardiac death.

    PubMed

    Sabir, Ian N; Usher-Smith, Juliet A; Huang, Christopher L-H; Grace, Andrew A

    2008-01-01

    Recent advances in pharmacological and device-based therapies have provided a range of management options for patients at risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Since all such interventions come with their attendant risks, however, stratification procedures aimed at identifying those who stand to benefit overall have gained a new degree of importance. This review assesses the value of risk stratification measures currently available in clinical practice, as well as of others that may soon enter the market. Parameters that may be obtained only by performing invasive cardiac catheterisation procedures are considered separately from those that may be derived using more readily available non-invasive techniques. It is concluded that effective stratification is likely to require the use of composite parameters and that invasive procedures might only be justified in specific sub-groups of patients.

  14. Risk stratification for sudden cardiac death.

    PubMed

    Sabir, Ian N; Usher-Smith, Juliet A; Huang, Christopher L-H; Grace, Andrew A

    2008-01-01

    Recent advances in pharmacological and device-based therapies have provided a range of management options for patients at risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Since all such interventions come with their attendant risks, however, stratification procedures aimed at identifying those who stand to benefit overall have gained a new degree of importance. This review assesses the value of risk stratification measures currently available in clinical practice, as well as of others that may soon enter the market. Parameters that may be obtained only by performing invasive cardiac catheterisation procedures are considered separately from those that may be derived using more readily available non-invasive techniques. It is concluded that effective stratification is likely to require the use of composite parameters and that invasive procedures might only be justified in specific sub-groups of patients. PMID:19351522

  15. Risk Stratification for Sudden Cardiac Death: Current Approaches and Predictive Value

    PubMed Central

    Lopera, Gustavo; Curtis, Anne B.

    2009-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a serious public health problem; the annual incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in North America is approximately 166,200. Identifying patients at risk is a difficult proposition. At the present time, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) remains the single most important marker for risk stratification. According to current guidelines, most patients with LVEF <35% could benefit from prophylactic ICD implantation, particularly in the setting of symptomatic heart failure. Current risk stratification strategies fail to identify patients at risk of SCD in larger population groups encompassing a greater number of potential SCD victims. However, the best approach to identifying patients and the value of various risk stratification tools is not entirely clear. The goal of this review is to discuss the problem of SCD and the value of the different risk stratification markers and their potential clinical use either alone or in combination with other risk stratification markers. PMID:20066150

  16. Risk stratification of prostate cancer 2016.

    PubMed

    Reiter, Robert E

    2016-01-01

    Prostate cancer is a common malignancy in men, but its management is fraught with controversy owing to its variable biologic and clinical behavior. Despite evidence that PSA screening reduces prostate cancer specific metastasis and death, it has not gained acceptance by various health authorities. Nevertheless, recent advances in biomarker development potentially address many of the shortcomings of routine PSA testing alone, including improved specificity for the detection of clinically significant cancer, optimized risk stratification to aid clinical management decisions, and discovery of genetic variants that may guide optimized therapy of advanced disease. PMID:27533326

  17. Life insurance: genomic stratification and risk classification

    PubMed Central

    Joly, Yann; Burton, Hilary; Knoppers, Bartha Maria; Feze, Ida Ngueng; Dent, Tom; Pashayan, Nora; Chowdhury, Susmita; Foulkes, William; Hall, Alison; Hamet, Pavel; Kirwan, Nick; Macdonald, Angus; Simard, Jacques; Van Hoyweghen, Ine

    2014-01-01

    With the development and increasing accessibility of new genomic tools such as next-generation sequencing, genome-wide association studies, and genomic stratification models, the debate on genetic discrimination in the context of life insurance became even more complex, requiring a review of current practices and the exploration of new scenarios. In this perspective, a multidisciplinary group of international experts representing different interests revisited the genetics and life insurance debate during a 2-day symposium ‘Life insurance: breast cancer research and genetic risk prediction seminar' held in Quebec City, Canada on 24 and 25 September 2012. Having reviewed the current legal, social, and ethical issues on the use of genomic information in the context of life insurance, the Expert Group identified four main questions: (1) Have recent developments in genomics and related sciences changed the contours of the genetics and life insurance debate? (2) Are genomic results obtained in a research context relevant for life insurance underwriting? (3) Should predictive risk assessment and risk stratification models based on genomic data also be used for life insurance underwriting? (4) What positive actions could stakeholders in the debate take to alleviate concerns over the use of genomic information by life insurance underwriters? This paper presents a summary of the discussions and the specific action items recommended by the Expert Group. PMID:24129434

  18. Life insurance: genomic stratification and risk classification.

    PubMed

    Joly, Yann; Burton, Hilary; Knoppers, Bartha Maria; Feze, Ida Ngueng; Dent, Tom; Pashayan, Nora; Chowdhury, Susmita; Foulkes, William; Hall, Alison; Hamet, Pavel; Kirwan, Nick; Macdonald, Angus; Simard, Jacques; Van Hoyweghen, Ine

    2014-05-01

    With the development and increasing accessibility of new genomic tools such as next-generation sequencing, genome-wide association studies, and genomic stratification models, the debate on genetic discrimination in the context of life insurance became even more complex, requiring a review of current practices and the exploration of new scenarios. In this perspective, a multidisciplinary group of international experts representing different interests revisited the genetics and life insurance debate during a 2-day symposium 'Life insurance: breast cancer research and genetic risk prediction seminar' held in Quebec City, Canada on 24 and 25 September 2012. Having reviewed the current legal, social, and ethical issues on the use of genomic information in the context of life insurance, the Expert Group identified four main questions: (1) Have recent developments in genomics and related sciences changed the contours of the genetics and life insurance debate? (2) Are genomic results obtained in a research context relevant for life insurance underwriting? (3) Should predictive risk assessment and risk stratification models based on genomic data also be used for life insurance underwriting? (4) What positive actions could stakeholders in the debate take to alleviate concerns over the use of genomic information by life insurance underwriters? This paper presents a summary of the discussions and the specific action items recommended by the Expert Group.

  19. Cardiovascular risk stratification and management in pre-diabetes.

    PubMed

    Færch, Kristine; Vistisen, Dorte; Johansen, Nanna Borup; Jørgensen, Marit Eika

    2014-06-01

    Prediabetes, covering individuals with impaired fasting glycemia, impaired glucose tolerance, or high-risk HbA1c levels, is associated with a ∼20 % increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared with normoglycemic individuals. It is well-known that lifestyle or pharmacologic interventions can prevent diabetes in prediabetic people; however, the evidence is less clear regarding prevention of CVD. Most diabetes prevention trials have failed to show beneficial effects on CVD morbidity and mortality despite significant improvements of CVD risk factors in individuals with prediabetes. Another challenge is how to estimate CVD risk in prediabetic people. In general, prediction models for CVD do not take glucose levels or prediabetes status into account, thereby underestimating CVD risk in these high-risk individuals. More evidence within risk stratification and management of CVD risk in prediabetes is needed in order to recommend useful and effective strategies for early prevention of CVD.

  20. Risk stratification after myocardial infarction. Clinical overview

    SciTech Connect

    O'Rourke, R.A. )

    1991-09-01

    Many patients with an acute myocardial infarction can be stratified into subgroups that are at high risk for morbidity and mortality on the basis of clinical characteristics that indicate recurrent myocardial ischemia, persistent left ventricular dysfunction, and/or recurrent cardiac arrhythmias. In patients with uncomplicated myocardial infarction the assessment of symptoms, physical findings, and ECG changes during predischarge exercise testing often identifies patients at increased risk for further cardiac events. Because of the suboptimum sensitivity and specificity of the exercise ECG for detecting myocardial ischemia, myocardial perfusion imaging with 201Tl and/or assessment of global and segmental ventricular function by two-dimensional echocardiography or radionuclide cineangiography during or immediately after exercise are often added to the predischarge risk stratification.

  1. Cytogenetic risk stratification in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Such, Esperanza; Cervera, José; Costa, Dolors; Solé, Francesc; Vallespí, Teresa; Luño, Elisa; Collado, Rosa; Calasanz, María J.; Hernández-Rivas, Jesús M.; Cigudosa, Juan C.; Nomdedeu, Benet; Mallo, Mar; Carbonell, Felix; Bueno, Javier; Ardanaz, María T.; Ramos, Fernando; Tormo, Mar; Sancho-Tello, Reyes; del Cañizo, Consuelo; Gómez, Valle; Marco, Victor; Xicoy, Blanca; Bonanad, Santiago; Pedro, Carmen; Bernal, Teresa; Sanz, Guillermo F.

    2011-01-01

    Background The prognostic value of cytogenetic findings in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia is unclear. Our purpose was to evaluate the independent prognostic impact of cytogenetic abnormalities in a large series of patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia included in the database of the Spanish Registry of Myelodysplastic Syndromes. Design and Methods We studied 414 patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia according to WHO criteria and with a successful conventional cytogenetic analysis at diagnosis. Different patient and disease characteristics were examined by univariate and multivariate methods to establish their relationship with overall survival and evolution to acute myeloid leukemia. Results Patients with abnormal karyotype (110 patients, 27%) had poorer overall survival (P=0.001) and higher risk of acute myeloid leukemia evolution (P=0.010). Based on outcome analysis, three cytogenetic risk categories were identified: low risk (normal karyotype or loss of Y chromosome as a single anomaly), high risk (presence of trisomy 8 or abnormalities of chromosome 7, or complex karyotype), and intermediate risk (all other abnormalities). Overall survival at five years for patients in the low, intermediate, and high risk cytogenetic categories was 35%, 26%, and 4%, respectively (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis confirmed that this new CMML-specific cytogenetic risk stratification was an independent prognostic variable for overall survival (P=0.001). Additionally, patients belonging to the high-risk cytogenetic category also had a higher risk of acute myeloid leukemia evolution on univariate (P=0.001) but not multivariate analysis. Conclusions Cytogenetic findings have a strong prognostic impact in patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia. PMID:21109693

  2. Ventricular repolarization measures for arrhythmic risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Monitillo, Francesco; Leone, Marta; Rizzo, Caterina; Passantino, Andrea; Iacoviello, Massimo

    2016-01-01

    Ventricular repolarization is a complex electrical phenomenon which represents a crucial stage in electrical cardiac activity. It is expressed on the surface electrocardiogram by the interval between the start of the QRS complex and the end of the T wave or U wave (QT). Several physiological, pathological and iatrogenic factors can influence ventricular repolarization. It has been demonstrated that small perturbations in this process can be a potential trigger of malignant arrhythmias, therefore the analysis of ventricular repolarization represents an interesting tool to implement risk stratification of arrhythmic events in different clinical settings. The aim of this review is to critically revise the traditional methods of static analysis of ventricular repolarization as well as those for dynamic evaluation, their prognostic significance and the possible application in daily clinical practice. PMID:26839657

  3. Role of risk stratification after myocardial infarction.

    PubMed

    Kuriachan, Vikas; Exner, Derek V

    2009-02-01

    Despite advances in medical and surgical therapy for patients with heart disease, sudden cardiac death remains an important public health problem that prematurely ends the lives of more than 300,000 persons each year in North America. Many of these deaths occur in patients with a history of myocardial infarction (MI). Although severe left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction is used to identify patients at risk of sudden death after MI, most cardiac arrests occur in those with only mild LV dysfunction. Further, severe LV dysfunction is not a specific indicator for cardiac arrest. Risk stratification, to identify patients most likely to benefit from implantable defibrillator therapy after MI, is an essential area of investigation. Because the development of cardiac arrest is complex and likely requires the confluence of several factors, using a single test to predict the risk of sudden death or to guide implantable defibrillator therapy is unlikely to be successful. Tests that assess cardiac structure, including repolarization, and those that evaluate autonomic modulation and other factors have been developed with the goal of identifying patients at highest risk of cardiac arrest after MI. These tests, particularly in combination, appear to identify patients who may benefit from implantable defibrillator therapy after MI. Ongoing and planned randomized controlled trials will assess whether these tests can be used to guide implantable defibrillator therapy. Until the data from these studies are available, severe LV dysfunction remains the only proven approach to guide implantable defibrillator therapy after MI. PMID:19141257

  4. [Early repolarisation. A dilemma of risk stratification].

    PubMed

    Eckardt, Lars; Wasmer, Kristina; Köbe, Julia; Milberg, Peter; Mönnig, Gerold

    2013-06-01

    Early repolarization, involving infero-lateral ST segment elevation and prominent J waves at the QRS-ST junction has been considered a normal ECG variant for more than 80 years. More recent studies suggest that this phenomenon is not as benign as earlier believed and may represent a risk for subsequent ventricular fibrillation in patients with and without structural heart disease. However, based on current data it seems unjustified to consider these often accidental ECG findings a marker for high risk of sudden cardiac death. The concept of a reduced repolarization reserve developed for the Long QT syndrome can be transformed to early repolarization syndrome. In general a "fibrillation reserve" is relatively high but if triggers such as a genetic background, age, gender, influences of the autonomous nervous system, changes in body temperature, or an acute coronary syndrome act together ventricular fibrillation may occur. A combination of an "early repolarization ECG" with syncope and/or a positive family history of sudden cardiac death may justify defibrillator therapy just on an individual basis. This review intends to summarize actual aspects of early repolarizations syndrome and focuses on the dilemma of risk stratification. PMID:23800947

  5. The Delayed Risk Stratification System in the Risk of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Recurrence

    PubMed Central

    Walczyk, Agnieszka; Pałyga, Iwona; Gąsior-Perczak, Danuta; Gadawska-Juszczyk, Klaudia; Szymonek, Monika; Trybek, Tomasz; Lizis-Kolus, Katarzyna; Szyska-Skrobot, Dorota; Mikina, Estera; Hurej, Stefan; Słuszniak, Janusz; Mężyk, Ryszard; Góźdź, Stanisław

    2016-01-01

    Context There has been a marked increase in the detection of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) over the past few years, which has improved the prognosis. However, it is necessary to adjust treatment and monitoring strategies relative to the risk of an unfavourable disease course. Materials and Methods This retrospective study examined data from 916 patients with DTC who received treatment at a single centre between 2000 and 2013. The utility of the American Thyroid Association (ATA) and the European Thyroid Association (ETA) recommended systems for early assessment of the risk of recurrent/persistent disease was compared with that of the recently recommended delayed risk stratification (DRS) system. Results The PPV and NPV for the ATA (24.59% and 95.42%, respectively) and ETA (24.28% and 95.68%, respectively) were significantly lower than those for the DRS (56.76% and 98.5%, respectively) (p<0.0001). The proportion of variance for predicting the final outcome was 15.8% for ATA, 16.1% for ETA and 56.7% for the DRS. Recurrent disease was rare (1% of patients), and was nearly always identified in patients at intermediate/high risk according to the initial stratification (9/10 cases). Conclusions The DRS showed a better correlation with the risk of persistent disease than the early stratification systems and allows personalisation of follow-up. If clinicians plan to alter the intensity of surveillance, patients at intermediate/high risk according to the early stratification systems should remain within the specialized centers; however, low risk patients can be referred to endocrinologists or other appropriate practitioners for long-term follow-up, as these patients remained at low risk after risk re-stratification. PMID:27078258

  6. [The risk of dengue transmission: a space for stratification].

    PubMed

    Gómez-Dantés, H; Ramos-Bonifaz, B; Tapia-Conyer, R

    1995-01-01

    The emergence of dengue fever as a public health problem in the Americas is increasing. Its rapid spread in the region and the geographical dissemination of dengue infection has not been followed by a corresponding input of financial, human and technical resources necessary to control dengue fever epidemics. This situation compelled to the analysis of dengue transmission in Mexico with the objective of designing a strategy of dengue fever surveillance based on the stratification of transmission risks taking into account geographical variables like climate, rain precipitation, mean annual temperature and altitude, as well as socio-demographical variables like population density and socio-economic level. This strategy will permit the efficient use of the scant resources available for control, although the impact of dengue transmission is yet to be evaluated.

  7. Risk stratification in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes: Risk scores, biomarkers and clinical judgment

    PubMed Central

    Corcoran, David; Grant, Patrick; Berry, Colin

    2015-01-01

    Undifferentiated chest pain is one of the most common reasons for emergency department attendance and admission to hospitals. Non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) is an important cause of chest pain, and accurate diagnosis and risk stratification in the emergency department must be a clinical priority. In the future, the incidence of NSTE-ACS will rise further as higher sensitivity troponin assays are implemented in clinical practice. In this article, we review contemporary approaches for the diagnosis and risk stratification of NSTE-ACS during emergency care. We consider the limitations of current practices and potential improvements. Clinical guidelines recommend an early invasive strategy in higher risk NSTE-ACS. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score is a validated risk stratification tool which has incremental prognostic value for risk stratification compared with clinical assessment or troponin testing alone. In emergency medicine, there has been a limited adoption of the GRACE score in some countries (e.g. United Kingdom), in part related to a delay in obtaining timely blood biochemistry results. Age makes an exponential contribution to the GRACE score, and on an individual patient basis, the risk of younger patients with a flow-limiting culprit coronary artery lesion may be underestimated. The future incorporation of novel cardiac biomarkers into this diagnostic pathway may allow for earlier treatment stratification. The cost-effectiveness of the new diagnostic pathways based on high-sensitivity troponin and copeptin must also be established. Finally, diagnostic tests and risk scores may optimize patient care but they cannot replace patient-focused good clinical judgment. PMID:26753174

  8. Is Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography a Resource Sparing Strategy in the Risk Stratification and Evaluation of Acute Chest Pain? Results of a Randomized Controlled Trial

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Adam H.; Pepe, Paul E.; Peshock, Ron; Bhore, Rafia; Yancy, Clyde C.; Xuan, Lei; Miller, Margarita M.; Huet, Gisselle R.; Trimmer, Clayton; Davis, Rene; Chason, Rebecca; Kashner, Micheal T.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives Annually, almost 6 million U.S. citizens are evaluated for acute chest pain syndromes (ACPSs), and billions of dollars in resources are utilized. A large part of the resource utilization results from precautionary hospitalizations that occur because care providers are unable to exclude the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) as the underlying cause of ACPSs. The purpose of this study was to examine whether the addition of coronary computerized tomography angiography (CCTA) to the concurrent standard care (SC) during an index emergency department (ED) visit could lower resource utilization when evaluating for the presence of CAD. Methods Sixty participants were assigned randomly to SC or SC + CCTA groups. Participants were interviewed at the index ED visit and at 90 days. Data collected included demographics, perceptions of the value of accessing health care, and clinical outcomes. Resource utilization included services received from both the primary in-network and the primary out-of-network providers. The prospectively defined primary endpoint was the total amount of resources utilized over a 90-day follow-up period when adding CCTA to the SC risk stratification in ACPSs. Results The mean (± standard deviation [SD]) for total resources utilized at 90 days for in-network plus out-of-network services was less for the participants in the SC + CCTA group ($10,134; SD ± $14,239) versus the SC-only group ($16,579; SD ± $19,148; p = 0.144), as was the median for the SC + CCTA ($4,288) versus SC only ($12,148; p = 0.652; median difference = −$1,291; 95% confidence interval [CI] = −$12,219 to $1,100; p = 0.652). Among the 60 total study patients, only 19 had an established diagnosis of CAD at 90 days. However, 18 (95%) of these diagnosed participants were in the SC + CCTA group. In addition, there were fewer hospital readmissions in the SC + CCTA group (6 of 30 [20%] vs. 16 of 30 [53%]; difference in proportions = −33%; 95% CI = −56% to −10%; p

  9. Risk Stratification in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: An Ongoing Process.

    PubMed

    Omry-Orbach, Gal

    2016-01-28

    Thyroid cancer is an increasingly common malignancy, with a rapidly rising prevalence worldwide. The social and economic ramifications of the increase in thyroid cancer are multiple. Though mortality from thyroid cancer is low, and most patients will do well, the risk of recurrence is not insignificant, up to 30%. Therefore, it is important to accurately identify those patients who are more or less likely to be burdened by their disease over years and tailor their treatment plan accordingly. The goal of risk stratification is to do just that. The risk stratification process generally starts postoperatively with histopathologic staging, based on the AJCC/UICC staging system as well as others designed to predict mortality. These do not, however, accurately assess the risk of recurrence/persistence. Patients initially considered to be at high risk may ultimately do very well yet be burdened by frequent unnecessary monitoring. Conversely, patients initially thought to be low risk, may not respond to their initial treatment as expected and, if left unmonitored, may have higher morbidity. The concept of risk-adaptive management has been adopted, with an understanding that risk stratification for differentiated thyroid cancer is dynamic and ongoing. A multitude of variables not included in AJCC/UICC staging are used initially to classify patients as low, intermediate, or high risk for recurrence. Over the course of time, a response-to-therapy variable is incorporated, and patients essentially undergo continuous risk stratification. Additional tools such as biochemical markers, genetic mutations, and molecular markers have been added to this complex risk stratification process such that this is essentially a continuum of risk. In recent years, additional considerations have been discussed with a suggestion of pre-operative risk stratification based on certain clinical and/or biologic characteristics. With the increasing prevalence of thyroid cancer but stable mortality

  10. Risk Stratification in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: An Ongoing Process.

    PubMed

    Omry-Orbach, Gal

    2016-01-01

    Thyroid cancer is an increasingly common malignancy, with a rapidly rising prevalence worldwide. The social and economic ramifications of the increase in thyroid cancer are multiple. Though mortality from thyroid cancer is low, and most patients will do well, the risk of recurrence is not insignificant, up to 30%. Therefore, it is important to accurately identify those patients who are more or less likely to be burdened by their disease over years and tailor their treatment plan accordingly. The goal of risk stratification is to do just that. The risk stratification process generally starts postoperatively with histopathologic staging, based on the AJCC/UICC staging system as well as others designed to predict mortality. These do not, however, accurately assess the risk of recurrence/persistence. Patients initially considered to be at high risk may ultimately do very well yet be burdened by frequent unnecessary monitoring. Conversely, patients initially thought to be low risk, may not respond to their initial treatment as expected and, if left unmonitored, may have higher morbidity. The concept of risk-adaptive management has been adopted, with an understanding that risk stratification for differentiated thyroid cancer is dynamic and ongoing. A multitude of variables not included in AJCC/UICC staging are used initially to classify patients as low, intermediate, or high risk for recurrence. Over the course of time, a response-to-therapy variable is incorporated, and patients essentially undergo continuous risk stratification. Additional tools such as biochemical markers, genetic mutations, and molecular markers have been added to this complex risk stratification process such that this is essentially a continuum of risk. In recent years, additional considerations have been discussed with a suggestion of pre-operative risk stratification based on certain clinical and/or biologic characteristics. With the increasing prevalence of thyroid cancer but stable mortality

  11. New Insights in Risk Stratification of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Papaleontiou, Maria; Haymart, Megan R.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose of review Numerous staging and scoring systems exist for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), but all harbor limitations. This has prompted investigation for new factors with prognostic implications for DTC. Recent findings Several new factors that may be involved in DTC risk stratification have emerged, such as thyroid stimulating hormone and molecular markers. In addition, others are controversial and being challenged, such as age, gender and lymph node involvement. Summary The purpose of this review is to present recent updates in the literature on new potential risk stratification predictors for DTC. PMID:24285100

  12. First review on psoriasis severity risk stratification: An engineering perspective.

    PubMed

    Shrivastava, Vimal K; Londhe, Narendra D; Sonawane, Rajendra S; Suri, Jasjit S

    2015-08-01

    Computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems have been used for characterization of several dermatologic diseases in the last few years. Psoriasis is a potentially life-threatening skin disease which affects 125 million people worldwide. The paper presents the first state-of-the-art review of technology solicitation in psoriasis along with its current practices, challenges and assessment techniques. The paper also conducts in-depth examination of the existing literature for all clinical parameters of Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) i.e., area, erythema, scaliness and thickness. We suggest a role of risk assessment using a decision support system for stratification of psoriasis in large populations. A balanced insight has been presented in all the components of the design, namely: feature extraction, feature selection, disease stratification and overall CAD performance evaluation. We conclude that CAD systems are promising for risk stratification and assessment of psoriasis.

  13. 2012 consensus document of the Italian Society of Hypertension (SIIA): strategies to improve blood pressure control in Italy: from global cardiovascular risk stratification to combination therapy.

    PubMed

    Volpe, Massimo; Rosei, Enrico Agabiti; Ambrosioni, Ettore; Cottone, Santina; Cuspidi, Cesare; Borghi, Claudio; De Luca, Nicola; Fallo, Francesco; Ferri, Claudio; Morganti, Alberto; Muiesan, Maria Lorenza; Sarzani, Riccardo; Sechi, Leonardo; Virdis, Agostino; Tocci, Giuliano; Trimarco, Bruno; Filippi, Alessandro; Mancia, Giuseppe

    2013-03-01

    Observational clinical studies have demonstrated that only 30-40% of patients with arterial hypertension achieve the recommended blood pressure goals (below 140/90 mmHg). In contrast, interventional trials consistently showed that it is possible to achieve effective blood pressure targets in about 70% of treated hypertensive patients with different cardiovascular risk profiles, especially through the use of rational, effective and well tolerated combination therapies. In order to bridge the gap between current and desired blood pressure control and to achieve more effective prevention of cardiovascular diseases, the Italian Society of Hypertension (SIIA) has developed an interventional strategy aimed at reaching nearly 70% of treated controlled hypertensive patients by 2015. This ambitious goal can be realistically achieved by a more rational use of modern tools and supports, and also through the use of combination therapy in hypertension in daily clinical practice, especially if this approach can be simplified into a single pill (fixed combination therapy), which is a therapeutic option now also available in Italy. Since about 70-80% of treated hypertensive patients require a combination therapy based on at least two classes of drugs in order to achieve the recommended blood pressure goals, it is of key importance to implement this strategy in routine clinical practice. Amongst the various combination therapies currently available for hypertension treatment and control, the use of those strategies based on drugs that antagonize the renin-angiotensin system, such as angiotensin II type 1 receptor antagonists (angiotensin receptor blockers) and ACE inhibitors, in combination with diuretics and/or calcium channel blockers, has been shown to significantly reduce the risk of major cardiovascular events and to improve patient compliance to treatment, resulting in a greater antihypertensive efficacy and better tolerability compared with monotherapy. The present document

  14. [Cardiovascular risk stratification and therapeutic implications in arterial hypertension].

    PubMed

    Handschin, Anja; Henny-Fullin, Katja; Buess, Daniel; Dieterle, Thomas

    2015-06-01

    To improve the prevention of cardiovascular complications and events in hypertensive patients, it is of major importance to estimate the patient's individual risk for cardiovascular events. Antihypertensive treatment should not only be based on blood pressure values anymore, but also on the patient's comorbidities and risk profile. Risk stratification takes into account cardiovascular risk factors, diabetes, asymptomatic organ damage and established cardiovascular or renal disease. The most important markers for asymptomatic organ damage which should be searched for are microalbuminuria and LVH. Current guidelines emphasize the importance of the adaption and selection of treatment according to asymptomatic and established organ damage and provide assistance for treatment decisions. They focus also on the different non-pharmacological therapy options and lifestyle modifications. The goal of this article is to summarize the most important innovations and to point out the importance of simple tools for the implementation of cardiovascular risk stratification in hypertensive patients.

  15. Mechanical thromboembolic prophylaxis with risk stratification in total knee arthroplasty.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, William G; Reeves, James D; Fricka, Kevin B; Goyal, Nitin; Engh, Gerard A; Parks, Nancy L

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the rate of thromboembolic and bleeding complications when using mechanical prophylaxis with preoperative risk stratification following total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Between 1994 and 2007, 4037 TKAs were performed on 3144 patients at our institution. Mechanical VTE prophylaxis was used for standard risk patients, which included AV impulse foot pumps, thigh high stockings, and early mobilization. Chemoprophylaxis was only given to patients who were at increased thromboembolic risk. The incidence of DVT identified by ultrasound following TKA was 2.1%. A retrospective review showed 1 patient had a fatal pulmonary embolism, and 5 patients had bleeding complications in the knee. We conclude that mechanical thromboembolic prophylaxis using risk stratification is safe and effective following TKA.

  16. Cardiovascular risk stratification in familial hypercholesterolaemia

    PubMed Central

    Sharifi, Mahtab; Rakhit, Roby D; Humphries, Steve E; Nair, Devaki

    2016-01-01

    Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is a common autosomal-dominant disorder in most European countries. Patients with FH are characterised by a raised level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and a high risk of premature coronary heart disease (CHD). Currently there is no consensus regarding the clinical utility to predict future coronary events or testing for the presence of subclinical atherosclerotic disease in asymptomatic patients with FH. Family screening of patients with FH as recommended by the UK National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guideline would result in finding many young individuals with a diagnosis of FH who are clinically asymptomatic. The traditional CHD risk scores, that is, the Framingham score, are insufficient in risk prediction in this group of young individuals. In addition, a better understanding of the genetic aetiology of the FH phenotype and CHD risk in monogenic FH and polygenic hypercholesterolaemia is needed. Non-invasive imaging methods such as carotid intima-media thickness measurement might produce more reliable information in finding high-risk patients with FH. The potential market authorisation of novel therapeutic agents such as PCSK9 monoclonal inhibitors makes it essential to have a better screening programme to prioritise the candidates for treatment with the most severe form of FH and at higher risk of coronary events. The utility of new imaging techniques and new cardiovascular biomarkers remains to be determined in prospective trials. PMID:27126396

  17. Risk stratification of patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Jiménez, David; Lobo, Jose Luis; Barrios, Deisy; Prandoni, Paolo; Yusen, Roger D

    2016-02-01

    Patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE) who present with arterial hypotension or shock have a high risk of death (high-risk PE), and treatment guidelines recommend strong consideration of thrombolysis in this setting. For normotensive patients diagnosed with PE, risk stratification should aim to differentiate the group of patients deemed as having a low risk for early complications (all-cause mortality, recurrent venous thromboembolism, and major bleeding) (low-risk PE) from the group of patients at higher risk for PE-related complications (intermediate-high risk PE), so low-risk patients could undergo consideration of early outpatient treatment of PE and intermediate-high risk patients would undergo close observation and consideration of thrombolysis. Clinicians should also use risk stratification and eligibility criteria to identify a third group of patients that should not undergo escalated or home therapy (intermediate-low risk PE). Such patients should initiate standard therapy of PE while in the hospital. Clinical models [e.g., Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), simplified PESI (sPESI)] may accurately identify those at low risk of dying shortly after the diagnosis of PE. For identification of intermediate-high risk patients with acute PE, studies have validated predictive models that use a combination of clinical, laboratory and imaging variables. PMID:26768476

  18. Electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death beyond the left ventricular ejection fraction.

    PubMed

    Gatzoulis, Konstantinos A; Tsiachris, Dimitris; Arsenos, Petros; Tousoulis, Dimitris

    2016-01-26

    Sudden cardiac death threats ischaemic and dilated cardiomyopathy patients. Anti- arrhythmic protection may be provided to these patients with implanted cardiac defibrillators (ICD), after an efficient risk stratification approach. The proposed risk stratifier of an impaired left ventricular ejection fraction has limited sensitivity meaning that a significant number of victims will remain undetectable by this risk stratification approach because they have a preserved left ventricular systolic function. Current risk stratification strategies focus on combinations of non invasive methods like T wave alternans, late potentials, heart rate turbulence, deceleration capacity and others, with invasive methods like the electrophysiologic study. In the presence of an electrically impaired substrate with formed post myocardial infarction fibrotic zones, programmed ventricular stimulation provides important prognostic information for the selection of the patients expected to benefit from an ICD implantation, while due to its high negative predictive value, patients at low risk level may also be detected. Clustering evidence from different research groups and electrophysiologic labs support an electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death. PMID:26839662

  19. Electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death beyond the left ventricular ejection fraction.

    PubMed

    Gatzoulis, Konstantinos A; Tsiachris, Dimitris; Arsenos, Petros; Tousoulis, Dimitris

    2016-01-26

    Sudden cardiac death threats ischaemic and dilated cardiomyopathy patients. Anti- arrhythmic protection may be provided to these patients with implanted cardiac defibrillators (ICD), after an efficient risk stratification approach. The proposed risk stratifier of an impaired left ventricular ejection fraction has limited sensitivity meaning that a significant number of victims will remain undetectable by this risk stratification approach because they have a preserved left ventricular systolic function. Current risk stratification strategies focus on combinations of non invasive methods like T wave alternans, late potentials, heart rate turbulence, deceleration capacity and others, with invasive methods like the electrophysiologic study. In the presence of an electrically impaired substrate with formed post myocardial infarction fibrotic zones, programmed ventricular stimulation provides important prognostic information for the selection of the patients expected to benefit from an ICD implantation, while due to its high negative predictive value, patients at low risk level may also be detected. Clustering evidence from different research groups and electrophysiologic labs support an electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death.

  20. Percutaneous biopsy for risk stratification of renal masses.

    PubMed

    Blute, Michael L; Drewry, Anna; Abel, Edwin Jason

    2015-10-01

    The increased use of abdominal imaging has led to identification of more patients with incidental renal masses, and renal mass biopsy (RMB) has become a popular method to evaluate unknown renal masses prior to definitive treatment. Pathologic data obtained from biopsy may be used to guide decisions for treatment and may include the presence or absence of malignant tumor, renal cell cancer subtype, tumor grade and the presence of other aggressive pathologic features. However, prior to using RMB for risk stratification, it is important to understand whether RMB findings are equivalent to pathologic analysis of surgical specimens and to identify any potential limitations of this approach. This review outlines the advantages and limitations of the current studies that evaluate RMB as a guide for treatment decision in patients with unknown renal masses. In multiple series, RMB has demonstrated low morbidity and a theoretical reduction in cost, if patients with benign tumors are identified from biopsy and can avoid subsequent treatment. However, when considering the routine use of RMB for risk stratification, it is important to note that biopsy may underestimate risk in some patients by undergrading, understaging or failing to identify aggressive tumor features. Future studies should focus on developing treatment algorithms that integrate RMB to identify the optimal use in risk stratification of patients with unknown renal masses.

  1. [Preoperative cardiac assessment before non-cardiac surgery: cardiac risk stratification].

    PubMed

    Iglesias, J F; Sierro, C; Aebischer, N; Vogt, P; Eeckhout, E

    2010-06-01

    Perioperative cardiac events occurring in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery are a common cause of morbidity and mortality. Current guidelines recommend an individualized approach to preoperative cardiac risk stratification prior to non-cardiac surgery, integrating risk factors both for the patient (active cardiac conditions, clinical risk factors, functional capacity) and for the planned surgery. Preoperative cardiac investigations are currently limited to high-risk patients in whom they may contribute to modify the perioperative management. A multidisciplinary approach to such patients, integrating the general practitioner, is recommended in order to define an individualized peri-operative strategy.

  2. Cardiac PET Perfusion: Prognosis, Risk Stratification, Clinical Management

    PubMed Central

    Dorbala, Sharmila; Di Carli, Marcelo F.

    2014-01-01

    Myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) with positron emission tomography (PET) has expanded significantly over the past decade. With the wider availability of PET scanners and the routine use of quantitative blood flow imaging, the clinical use of PET MPI is expected to increase further. PET MPI is a powerful tool to identify risk, to quantify risk, and to guide therapy in patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). A large body of evidence supports the prognostic value of PET MPI and ejection fraction in intermediate to high risk subjects, in women, in obese individuals and in post coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) individuals. A normal perfusion study indicates low risk (< 1% annualized rate of cardiac events of cardiac death and non-fatal myocardial infarction), while an abnormal study indicates high risk. With accurate risk stratification, high quality images, and quantitation PET MPI may transform the management of patients with known or suspected CAD. PMID:25234079

  3. Quantitative risk stratification of oral leukoplakia with exfoliative cytology.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yao; Li, Jianying; Liu, Xiaoyong; Liu, Xudong; Khawar, Waqaar; Zhang, Xinyan; Wang, Fan; Chen, Xiaoxin; Sun, Zheng

    2015-01-01

    Exfoliative cytology has been widely used for early diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Test outcome is reported as "negative", "atypical" (defined as abnormal epithelial changes of uncertain diagnostic significance), and "positive" (defined as definitive cellular evidence of epithelial dysplasia or carcinoma). The major challenge is how to properly manage the "atypical" patients in order to diagnose OSCC early and prevent OSCC. In this study, we collected exfoliative cytology data, histopathology data, and clinical data of normal subjects (n=102), oral leukoplakia (OLK) patients (n=82), and OSCC patients (n=93), and developed a data analysis procedure for quantitative risk stratification of OLK patients. This procedure involving a step called expert-guided data transformation and reconstruction (EdTAR) which allows automatic data processing and reconstruction and reveals informative signals for subsequent risk stratification. Modern machine learning techniques were utilized to build statistical prediction models on the reconstructed data. Among the several models tested using resampling methods for parameter pruning and performance evaluation, Support Vector Machine (SVM) was found to be optimal with a high sensitivity (median>0.98) and specificity (median>0.99). With the SVM model, we constructed an oral cancer risk index (OCRI) which may potentially guide clinical follow-up of OLK patients. One OLK patient with an initial OCRI of 0.88 developed OSCC after 40 months of follow-up. In conclusion, we have developed a statistical method for qualitative risk stratification of OLK patients. This method may potentially improve cost-effectiveness of clinical follow-up of OLK patients, and help design clinical chemoprevention trial for high-risk populations.

  4. Heart rate variability in risk stratification of cardiac patients.

    PubMed

    Huikuri, Heikki V; Stein, Phyllis K

    2013-01-01

    Heart rate (HR) variability has been extensively studied in cardiac patients, especially in patients surviving an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and also in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) or left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. The majority of studies have shown that patients with reduced or abnormal HR variability have an increased risk of mortality within a few years after an AMI or after a diagnosis of CHF/LV dysfunction. Various measures of HR dynamics, such as time-domain, spectral, and non-linear measures of HR variability have been used in risk stratification. The prognostic power of various measures, except of those reflecting rapid R-R interval oscillations, has been almost identical, albeit some non-linear HR variability measures, such as short-term fractal scaling exponent have provided somewhat better prognostic information than the others. Abnormal HR variability predicts both sudden and non-sudden cardiac death. Because of remodeling of the arrhythmia substrate after AMI, early measurement of HR variability to identify those at high risk should likely be repeated later in order to assess the risk of fatal arrhythmia events. Future randomized trials using HR variability/turbulence as one of the pre-defined inclusion criteria will show whether routine measurement of HR variability/turbulence will become a routine clinical tool for risk stratification of cardiac patients.

  5. [Lung cancer screening - risk stratification : Who should undergo screening?].

    PubMed

    Beer, L; Prosch, H

    2016-09-01

    Lung cancer is one of the leading causes of deaths in Europa and the USA. In approximately 75 % of lung cancer patients, bronchogenic carcinoma is detected at an advanced tumor stage; therefore, therapeutic options which aim at curing the disease in these patients are limited and treatment is mostly palliative. A relatively good prognosis is reserved for the minority of patients where the tumor is detected at an early stage and treatment is potentially curative. For this reason, early diagnosis of lung cancer could save lives. Retrospective analyses of the US national lung screening trial (NLST) showed that especially high-risk populations (e. g. higher age, positive smoking history, overweight and a positive family history for lung cancer) benefit most from lung cancer screening. Thus, the effectiveness of computed tomography (CT) screening can be improved by focusing on high-risk populations. This review article summarizes the risk stratification models of the large European and American screening studies and discusses possible future biomarkers for risk stratification. PMID:27495786

  6. Selection of the method to appraise and compare health systems using risk stratification: the ASSEHS approach.

    PubMed

    Mora, J; De Massari, D; Pauws, S; op den Buijs, J; David, M; Prieto, L; Contel, J; Martí, T; Bousquet, J; de Manuel, E

    2015-12-01

    To face the challenge of active and healthy ageing, European Health Systems and services should move towards proactive, anticipatory and integrated care. The comparison of methods to combine results across studies and to determine an overall effect was undertaken by the EU project ASSEHS (Activation of Stratification Strategies and Results of the interventions on frail patients of Healthcare Services, EU project (No. 2013 12 04). The questions raised in ASSEHS are broad and involve a complex body of literature. Thus, systematic reviews are not appropriate. The most appropriate method appears to be scoping studies. In this paper, an updated method of scoping studies has been used to determine the questions needed to appraise the health systems and services for frailty in the ageing population. Three objectives were set (i) to detect a relevant number of risk stratification tools for frailty and identify the best-in-class, (ii) to understand the feasibility of introducing stratification tools and identify the difficulties of the process and (iii) to find evidence on the impact of risk stratification in Health Services. This novel approach may provide greater clarity about scoping study methodology and help enhance the methodological rigor with which authors undertake and report scoping studies.

  7. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    PubMed Central

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

  8. Strategies for Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease Based on Risk Stratification by the ACC/AHA Lipid Guidelines, ATP III Guidelines, Coronary Calcium Scoring, and C-Reactive Protein, and a Global Treat-All Strategy: A Comparative--Effectiveness Modeling Study

    PubMed Central

    Galper, Benjamin Z.; Wang, Y. Claire; Einstein, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Several approaches have been proposed for risk-stratification and primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD), but their comparative and cost-effectiveness is unknown. Methods We constructed a state-transition microsimulation model to compare multiple approaches to the primary prevention of CHD in a simulated cohort of men aged 45–75 and women 55–75. Risk-stratification strategies included the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines on the treatment of blood cholesterol, the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines, and approaches based on coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring and C-reactive protein (CRP). Additionally we assessed a treat-all strategy in which all individuals were prescribed either moderate-dose or high-dose statins and all males received low-dose aspirin. Outcome measures included CHD events, costs, medication-related side effects, radiation-attributable cancers, and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) over a 30-year timeframe. Results Treat-all with high-dose statins dominated all other strategies for both men and women, gaining 15.7 million QALYs, preventing 7.3 million myocardial infarctions, and saving over $238 billion, compared to the status quo, far outweighing its associated adverse events including bleeding, hepatitis, myopathy, and new-onset diabetes. ACC/AHA guidelines were more cost-effective than ATP III guidelines for both men and women despite placing 8.7 million more people on statins. For women at low CHD risk, treat-all with high-dose statins was more likely to cause a statin-related adverse event than to prevent a CHD event. Conclusions Despite leading to a greater proportion of the population placed on statin therapy, the ACC/AHA guidelines are more cost-effective than ATP III. Even so, at generic prices, treating all men and women with statins and all men with low-dose aspirin appears to be more cost-effective than all risk-stratification approaches for the

  9. A Model for Opioid Risk Stratification: Assessing the Psychosocial Components of Orofacial Pain.

    PubMed

    Kulich, Ronald J; Backstrom, Jordan; Brownstein, Jennifer; Finkelman, Matthew; Dhadwal, Shuchi; DiBennedetto, David

    2016-08-01

    This article describes a model of opiate risk stratification with a special focus on dentistry and oral surgery. A brief overview covers the scope of the US opioid abuse and misuse epidemic, and the role of the dentist in mitigating the problems of diversion and misuse of controlled substances. The expanding role of dentistry is summarized. An assessment outlines gathering critical risk information, screening questionnaires, access to state prescription monitoring programs, and communication with cotreating providers. Special populations are discussed. Barriers and possible solutions for effective implementation of these strategies are summarized. PMID:27475506

  10. Bleeding risk stratification in an era of aggressive management of acute coronary syndromes

    PubMed Central

    Abu-Assi, Emad; Raposeiras-Roubín, Sergio; García-Acuña, José María; González-Juanatey, José Ramón

    2014-01-01

    Major bleeding is currently one of the most common non-cardiac complications observed in the treatment of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Hemorrhagic complications occur with a frequency of 1% to 10% during treatment for ACS. In fact, bleeding events are the most common extrinsic complication associated with ACS therapy. The identification of clinical characteristics and particularities of the antithrombin therapy associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic complications would make it possible to adopt prevention strategies, especially among those exposed to greater risk. The international societies of cardiology renewed emphasis on bleeding risk stratification in order to decide strategy and therapy for patients with ACS. With this review, we performed an update about the ACS bleeding risk scores most frequently used in daily clinical practice. PMID:25429326

  11. Novel biomarkers for risk stratification in pulmonary arterial hypertension

    PubMed Central

    Zelniker, Thomas; Uhlmann, Lorenz; Spaich, Sebastian; Friedrich, Jörg; Preusch, Michael R.; Meyer, Franz J.; Katus, Hugo A.

    2015-01-01

    Risk stratification in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is paramount to identifying individuals at highest risk of death. So far, there are only limited parameters for prognostication in patients with PAH. 95 patients with confirmed PAH were included in the present analysis and followed for a total of 4 years. Blood samples were analysed for serum levels of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (proANP), growth differentiation factor 15, soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 and placental growth factor. 27 (28.4%) patients died during a follow-up of 4 years. Levels of all tested biomarkers, except for placental growth factor, were significantly elevated in nonsurvivors compared with survivors. Receiver operating characteristic analyses demonstrated that cardiac biomarkers had the highest power in predicting mortality. In particular, proANP exhibited the highest area under the curve, followed by N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and hsTnT. Furthermore, proANP and hsTnT added significant additive prognostic value to the established markers in categorical and continuous net reclassification index. Moreover, after Cox regression, proANP (hazard ratio (HR) 1.91), hsTnT (HR 1.41), echocardiographic right ventricular impairment (HR 1.30) and 6-min walk test (HR 0.97 per 10 m) remained the only significant parameters in prognostication of mortality. Our data suggest benefits of the implementation of proANP and hsTnT as additive biomarkers for risk stratification in patients with PAH.

  12. Risk stratification in heart failure using artificial neural networks.

    PubMed Central

    Atienza, F.; Martinez-Alzamora, N.; De Velasco, J. A.; Dreiseitl, S.; Ohno-Machado, L.

    2000-01-01

    Accurate risk stratification of heart failure patients is critical to improve management and outcomes. Heart failure is a complex multisystem disease in which several predictors are categorical. Neural network models have successfully been applied to several medical classification problems. Using a simple neural network, we assessed one-year prognosis in 132 patients, consecutively admitted with heart failure, by classifying them in 3 groups: death, readmission and one-year event-free survival. Given the small number of cases, the neural network model was trained using a resampling method. We identified relevant predictors using the Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) method, and estimated their mean effect on the 3 different outcomes. Only 9 individuals were misclassified. Neural networks have the potential to be a useful tool for making prognosis in the domain of heart failure. PMID:11079839

  13. Novel Molecular Imaging Approaches to Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Risk Stratification

    PubMed Central

    Toczek, Jakub; Meadows, Judith L.; Sadeghi, Mehran M.

    2015-01-01

    Selection of patients for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair is currently based on aneurysm size, growth rate and symptoms. Molecular imaging of biological processes associated with aneurysm growth and rupture, e.g., inflammation and matrix remodeling, could improve patient risk stratification and lead to a reduction in AAA morbidity and mortality. 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) and ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide (USPIO) magnetic resonance imaging are two novel approaches to AAA imaging evaluated in clinical trials. A variety of other tracers, including those that target inflammatory cells and proteolytic enzymes (e.g., integrin αvβ3 and matrix metalloproteinases), have proven effective in preclinical models of AAA and show great potential for clinical translation. PMID:26763279

  14. Advanced colorectal neoplasia risk stratification by penalized logistic regression.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yunzhi; Yu, Menggang; Wang, Sijian; Chappell, Richard; Imperiale, Thomas F

    2016-08-01

    Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of death from cancer in the United States. To facilitate the efficiency of colorectal cancer screening, there is a need to stratify risk for colorectal cancer among the 90% of US residents who are considered "average risk." In this article, we investigate such risk stratification rules for advanced colorectal neoplasia (colorectal cancer and advanced, precancerous polyps). We use a recently completed large cohort study of subjects who underwent a first screening colonoscopy. Logistic regression models have been used in the literature to estimate the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia based on quantifiable risk factors. However, logistic regression may be prone to overfitting and instability in variable selection. Since most of the risk factors in our study have several categories, it was tempting to collapse these categories into fewer risk groups. We propose a penalized logistic regression method that automatically and simultaneously selects variables, groups categories, and estimates their coefficients by penalizing the [Formula: see text]-norm of both the coefficients and their differences. Hence, it encourages sparsity in the categories, i.e. grouping of the categories, and sparsity in the variables, i.e. variable selection. We apply the penalized logistic regression method to our data. The important variables are selected, with close categories simultaneously grouped, by penalized regression models with and without the interactions terms. The models are validated with 10-fold cross-validation. The receiver operating characteristic curves of the penalized regression models dominate the receiver operating characteristic curve of naive logistic regressions, indicating a superior discriminative performance.

  15. [Risk stratification in selective surgery of abdominal aortic aneurysm].

    PubMed

    Iaitskiĭ, N A; Bedrov, A Ia; Moiseev, A A; Nesterova, I V

    2014-01-01

    A retrospective analysis of data of 188 patients, who underwent a selective surgery for abdominal aortic aneurism showed, that all the patients had a cardiac pathology. Ischemic heart disease and arterial hypertension had 175 (93.0%) and 177 (94.1%) of patients, respectively. Chronic nonspecific lung disease was noted in 65.4% patients and kidney disease--in 48.9%. Different complications developed in early postoperative period in 47 (25%) patients, that resulted in fatal outcome in 20(10,6%). The most frequent complication was an acute renal insufficiency, which led to fatal outcome in 40% patients. Myocardial infarction and pneumonia took the second place in the structure of postoperative complications, one half of the fatal cases was due to these. Retrospective risk stratification assessment of the development of early postoperative complications and lethality was made by Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS) and angiosurgical model scale V-POSSUM. It was stated, that score was up to 84 according to GAS scale and up to 28 (V-POSSUM). That fact is the evidence of high risk of the operation. On the basis of ROC curves building, the conclusion was made about greater predictive ability of V-POSSUM scoring system. PMID:25055502

  16. Risk stratification after acute myocardial infarction in the reperfusion era.

    PubMed

    Michaels, A D; Goldschlager, N

    2000-01-01

    Historically, risk stratification for survivors of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) has centered on 3 principles: assessment of left ventricular function, detection of residual myocardial ischemia, and estimation of the risk for sudden cardiac death. Although these factors still have important prognostic implications for these patients, our ability to predict adverse cardiac events has significantly improved over the last several years. Recent studies have identified powerful predictors of adverse cardiac events available from the patient history, physical examination, initial electrocardiogram, and blood testing early in the evaluation of patients with AMI. Numerous studies performed in patients receiving early reperfusion therapy with either thrombolysis or primary angioplasty have emphasized the importance of a patent infarct related artery for long-term survival. The predictive value of a variety of noninvasive and invasive tests to predict myocardial electrical instability have been under active investigation in patients receiving early reperfusion therapy. The current understanding of the clinically important predictors of clinical outcomes in survivors of AMI is reviewed in this article. PMID:10661780

  17. Prostate cancer risk stratification with magnetic resonance imaging.

    PubMed

    Felker, Ely R; Margolis, Daniel J; Nassiri, Nima; Marks, Leonard S

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) has shown promise for prostate cancer (PCa) risk stratification. mpMRI, often followed by targeted biopsy, can be used to confirm low-grade disease before enrollment in active surveillance. In patients with intermediate or high-risk PCa, mpMRI can be used to inform surgical management. mpMRI has sensitivity of 44% to 87% for detection of clinically significant PCa and negative predictive value of 63% to 98% for exclusion of significant disease. In addition to tumor identification, mpMRI has also been shown to contribute significant incremental value to currently used clinical nomograms for predicting extraprostatic extension. In combination with conventional clinical criteria, accuracy of mpMRI for prediction of extraprostatic extension ranges from 92% to 94%, significantly higher than that achieved with clinical criteria alone. Supplemental sequences, such as diffusion-weighted imaging and dynamic contrast-enhanced imaging, allow quantitative evaluation of cancer-suspicious regions. Apparent diffusion coefficient appears to be an independent predictor of PCa aggressiveness. Addition of apparent diffusion coefficient to Epstein criteria may improve sensitivity for detection of significant PCa by as much as 16%. Limitations of mpMRI include variability in reporting, underestimation of PCa volume and failure to detect clinically significant disease in a small but significant number of cases. PMID:27040381

  18. Non-muscle invasive bladder cancer risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Isharwal, Sumit; Konety, Badrinath

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) comprises about 70% of all newly diagnosed bladder cancer, and includes tumors with stage Ta, T1 and carcinoma in situ (CIS.) Since, NMIBC patients with progression to muscle-invasive disease tend to have worse prognosis than with patients with primary muscle-invasive disease, there is a need to significantly improve risk stratification and earlier definitive treatment for high-risk NMIBC. Materials and Methods: A detailed Medline search was performed to identify all publications on the topic of prognostic factors and risk predictions for superficial bladder cancer/NMIBC. The manuscripts were reviewed to identify variables that could predict recurrence and progression. Results: The most important prognostic factor for progression is grade of tumor. T category, tumor size, number of tumors, concurrent CIS, intravesical therapy, response to bacillus Calmette–Guerin at 3- or 6-month follow-up, prior recurrence rate, age, gender, lymphovascular invasion and depth of lamina propria invasion are other important clinical and pathological parameters to predict recurrence and progression in patients with NMIBC. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) and the Spanish Club UrológicoEspañol de Tratamiento Oncológico (CUETO) risk tables are the two best-established predictive models for recurrence and progression risk calculation, although they tend to overestimate risk and have poor discrimination for prognostic outcomes in external validation. Molecular biomarkers such as Ki-67, FGFR3 and p53 appear to be promising in predicting recurrence and progression but need further validation prior to using them in clinical practice. Conclusion: EORTC and CUETO risk tables are the two best-established models to predict recurrence and progression in patients with NMIBC though they tend to overestimate risk and have poor discrimination for prognostic outcomes in external validation. Future

  19. Cardiac risk stratification in cardiac rehabilitation programs: a review of protocols

    PubMed Central

    da Silva, Anne Kastelianne França; Barbosa, Marianne Penachini da Costa de Rezende; Bernardo, Aline Fernanda Barbosa; Vanderlei, Franciele Marques; Pacagnelli, Francis Lopes; Vanderlei, Luiz Carlos Marques

    2014-01-01

    Objective Gather and describe general characteristics of different protocols of risk stratification for cardiac patients undergoing exercise. Methods We conducted searches in LILACS, IBECS, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, and SciELO electronic databases, using the following descriptors: Cardiovascular Disease, Rehabilitation Centers, Practice Guideline, Exercise and Risk Stratification in the past 20 years. Results Were selected eight studies addressing methods of risk stratification in patients undergoing exercise. Conclusion None of the methods described could cover every situation the patient can be subjected to; however, they are essential to exercise prescription. PMID:25140477

  20. Population-based genetic risk prediction and stratification for ovarian cancer: views from women at high risk.

    PubMed

    Rahman, Belinda; Meisel, Susanne F; Fraser, Lindsay; Side, Lucy; Gessler, Sue; Wardle, Jane; Lanceley, Anne

    2015-03-01

    There is an opportunity to improve outcomes for ovarian cancer (OC) through advances in risk stratification, early detection and diagnosis. A population-based OC genetic risk prediction and stratification program is being developed. A previous focus group study with individuals from the general population showed support for the proposed program. This qualitative interview study explores the attitudes of women at high risk of OC. Eight women participated in one-on-one, in-depth, semi-structured interviews to explore: experiences of learning of OC risk, risk perceptions, OC knowledge and awareness, and opinions on risk stratification approach. There was evidence of strong support for the proposed program. Benefits were seen as providing reassurance to women at low risk, and reducing worry in women at high risk through appropriate clinical management. Stratification into 'low' and 'high' risk groups was well-received. Participants were more hesitant about stratification to the 'intermediate' risk group. The data suggest formats to effectively communicate OC risk estimates will require careful thought. Interactions with GPs were highlighted as a barrier to OC risk assessment and diagnosis. These results are encouraging for the possible introduction and uptake of a risk prediction and stratification program for OC in the general population.

  1. A new method for IVUS-based coronary artery disease risk stratification: A link between coronary & carotid ultrasound plaque burdens.

    PubMed

    Araki, Tadashi; Ikeda, Nobutaka; Shukla, Devarshi; Londhe, Narendra D; Shrivastava, Vimal K; Banchhor, Sumit K; Saba, Luca; Nicolaides, Andrew; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Suri, Jasjit S

    2016-02-01

    Interventional cardiologists have a deep interest in risk stratification prior to stenting and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) procedures. Intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) is most commonly adapted for screening, but current tools lack the ability for risk stratification based on grayscale plaque morphology. Our hypothesis is based on the genetic makeup of the atherosclerosis disease, that there is evidence of a link between coronary atherosclerosis disease and carotid plaque built up. This novel idea is explored in this study for coronary risk assessment and its classification of patients between high risk and low risk. This paper presents a strategy for coronary risk assessment by combining the IVUS grayscale plaque morphology and carotid B-mode ultrasound carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) - a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis. Support vector machine (SVM) learning paradigm is adapted for risk stratification, where both the learning and testing phases use tissue characteristics derived from six feature combinational spaces, which are then used by the SVM classifier with five different kernels sets. These six feature combinational spaces are designed using 56 novel feature sets. K-fold cross validation protocol with 10 trials per fold is used for optimization of best SVM-kernel and best feature combination set. IRB approved coronary IVUS and carotid B-mode ultrasound were jointly collected on 15 patients (2 days apart) via: (a) 40MHz catheter utilizing iMap (Boston Scientific, Marlborough, MA, USA) with 2865 frames per patient (42,975 frames) and (b) linear probe B-mode carotid ultrasound (Toshiba scanner, Japan). Using the above protocol, the system shows the classification accuracy of 94.95% and AUC of 0.95 using optimized feature combination. This is the first system of its kind for risk stratification as a screening tool to prevent excessive cost burden and better patients' cardiovascular disease management, while validating our two hypotheses.

  2. Early risk stratification in pediatric type 1 diabetes.

    PubMed

    Broe, Rebecca

    2015-03-01

    of early glycemic control. Identifying high-risk patients at a very early stage is not only desired for prevention of diabetic retinopathy - neuropathy and nephropathy similarly remain frequent in type 1 diabetes. Early risk stratification will allow for timely implementation of effective interventions and for individualized screening and diabetes care. The second and third studies of this thesis provide the longest prospective studies to date on both retinal vessel calibers and retinal fractal dimensions and their predictive value on diabetic microvascular complications. Semi-automated computer software has been developed to measure smaller changes in the retinal vessels on retinal photographs. Two of the first parameters to be reliably estimated by these programs were retinal vessel calibers and retinal vascular fractal dimensions (a quantitative measure on vascular complexity). There is very limited knowledge on their predictive value on diabetic complications thus far. In the second and third study, a consistent relation between narrower retinal arteriolar calibers, wider retinal venular calibers, lower fractal dimensions and the 16-year incidences of diabetic neuropathy, nephropathy and proliferative retinopathy was found. This has never been shown before. The results on vessel analyzes provides indications of a common pathogenic pathway for diabetic microvascular complications and therefore a possibility of universal risk estimation for development of neuropathy, nephropathy and retinopathy in type 1 diabetes. PMID:25703648

  3. Early risk stratification in pediatric type 1 diabetes.

    PubMed

    Broe, Rebecca

    2015-03-01

    of early glycemic control. Identifying high-risk patients at a very early stage is not only desired for prevention of diabetic retinopathy - neuropathy and nephropathy similarly remain frequent in type 1 diabetes. Early risk stratification will allow for timely implementation of effective interventions and for individualized screening and diabetes care. The second and third studies of this thesis provide the longest prospective studies to date on both retinal vessel calibers and retinal fractal dimensions and their predictive value on diabetic microvascular complications. Semi-automated computer software has been developed to measure smaller changes in the retinal vessels on retinal photographs. Two of the first parameters to be reliably estimated by these programs were retinal vessel calibers and retinal vascular fractal dimensions (a quantitative measure on vascular complexity). There is very limited knowledge on their predictive value on diabetic complications thus far. In the second and third study, a consistent relation between narrower retinal arteriolar calibers, wider retinal venular calibers, lower fractal dimensions and the 16-year incidences of diabetic neuropathy, nephropathy and proliferative retinopathy was found. This has never been shown before. The results on vessel analyzes provides indications of a common pathogenic pathway for diabetic microvascular complications and therefore a possibility of universal risk estimation for development of neuropathy, nephropathy and retinopathy in type 1 diabetes.

  4. Risk Stratification and Prognosis in Sepsis: What Have We Learned from Microarrays?

    PubMed

    Sweeney, Timothy E; Wong, Hector R

    2016-06-01

    Sepsis mortality rates have decreased in recent years but remain unacceptably high. Risk stratification and prognostication is of particular importance because high-risk patients may benefit from earlier clinical interventions, whereas low-risk patients may benefit from not undergoing unnecessary procedures. Prognostication is currently done mostly via clinical criteria and blood lactate levels. This article summarizes the literature on the complexity of changes at the molecular level for the casual reader. PMID:27229638

  5. A national approach to diabetes foot risk stratification and foot care.

    PubMed

    Leese, G P; Stang, D; Pearson, D W

    2011-08-01

    The Scottish Diabetes Foot Action Group (SDG) has developed and introduced a national strategy plan for diabetic foot care across Scotland. This has involved the implementation of an evidence-based national foot screening and risk stratification programme that has already covered 61% of the population in just the first two years. Nationally agreed patient information foot leaflets and professional education material have been introduced, and a consensus for antibiotic use in the diabetic foot has been published. Information on multidisciplinary specialist foot services has been collected, indicating that 58% of Health Board areas have consultants with dedicated sessions in their job plan to a foot clinic, and 42% had integrated orthotic involvement. The SDG aims to increase these figures. Work has been undertaken to support local podiatry networks and improve communication between the specialist centre and the community. At a national level the SDG is working with Foot in Diabetes UK (FDUK) to recognize key podiatry skills by developing core competencies and a competency framework for the diabetes podiatrist and diabetes orthotist. The annual Scottish Diabetes Survey indicates some improvement in amputation rates with prevalence decreasing from 0.8% to 0.5%, and improved recording of foot ulceration at a national level. This national strategy has helped highlight the importance and difficulties facing diabetes foot care and should help to continue to improve the quality of care of people with diabetes who have foot-related problems.

  6. Primary vesico-ureteric reflux: The need for individualised risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Hidas, Guy; Nam, Alexander; Soltani, Tandis; Pribish, Maryellen; Watts, Blake; Khoury, Antoine E.

    2013-01-01

    The management of paediatric primary vesico-ureteric reflux (VUR) has undergone serial changes over the last decade. As this disorder is extremely heterogeneous, and high-quality prospective data are limited, the treatment strategies vary among centres. Current treatment options include observation only, continuous antibiotic prophylaxis, and surgery. Surgical intervention is indicated if a child has a breakthrough urinary tract infection (UTI) while on continuous antibiotic prophylaxis or if there are renal scars present. After excluding a secondary cause of VUR the physician should consider the risk factors affecting the severity of VUR and manage the child accordingly. Those factors include demographic factors (age at presentation, gender, ethnicity) and clinical factors (VUR grade, unilateral vs. bilateral, presence of renal scars, initial presentation, the number of UTIs, and presence of any voiding or bowel dysfunction). In this review we summarise the major controversial issues in current reports on VUR and highlight the importance of individualised patient management according to their risk stratification. PMID:26579238

  7. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease heterogeneity: challenges for health risk assessment, stratification and management

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background and hypothesis Heterogeneity in clinical manifestations and disease progression in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) lead to consequences for patient health risk assessment, stratification and management. Implicit with the classical "spill over" hypothesis is that COPD heterogeneity is driven by the pulmonary events of the disease. Alternatively, we hypothesized that COPD heterogeneities result from the interplay of mechanisms governing three conceptually different phenomena: 1) pulmonary disease, 2) systemic effects of COPD and 3) co-morbidity clustering, each of them with their own dynamics. Objective and method To explore the potential of a systems analysis of COPD heterogeneity focused on skeletal muscle dysfunction and on co-morbidity clustering aiming at generating predictive modeling with impact on patient management. To this end, strategies combining deterministic modeling and network medicine analyses of the Biobridge dataset were used to investigate the mechanisms of skeletal muscle dysfunction. An independent data driven analysis of co-morbidity clustering examining associated genes and pathways was performed using a large dataset (ICD9-CM data from Medicare, 13 million people). Finally, a targeted network analysis using the outcomes of the two approaches (skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering) explored shared pathways between these phenomena. Results (1) Evidence of abnormal regulation of skeletal muscle bioenergetics and skeletal muscle remodeling showing a significant association with nitroso-redox disequilibrium was observed in COPD; (2) COPD patients presented higher risk for co-morbidity clustering than non-COPD patients increasing with ageing; and, (3) the on-going targeted network analyses suggests shared pathways between skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering. Conclusions The results indicate the high potential of a systems approach to address COPD heterogeneity. Significant knowledge gaps

  8. IMWG consensus on risk stratification in multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    Chng, W J; Dispenzieri, A; Chim, C-S; Fonseca, R; Goldschmidt, H; Lentzsch, S; Munshi, N; Palumbo, A; Miguel, J S; Sonneveld, P; Cavo, M; Usmani, S; Durie, B G M; Avet-Loiseau, H

    2014-02-01

    Multiple myeloma is characterized by underlying clinical and biological heterogeneity, which translates to variable response to treatment and outcome. With the recent increase in treatment armamentarium and the projected further increase in approved therapeutic agents in the coming years, the issue of having some mechanism to dissect this heterogeneity and rationally apply treatment is coming to the fore. A number of robustly validated prognostic markers have been identified and the use of these markers in stratifying patients into different risk groups has been proposed. In this consensus statement, the International Myeloma Working Group propose well-defined and easily applicable risk categories based on current available information and suggests the use of this set of prognostic factors as gold standards in all clinical trials and form the basis of subsequent development of more complex prognostic system or better prognostic factors. At the same time, these risk categories serve as a framework to rationalize the use of therapies. PMID:23974982

  9. Adrenomedullin for Risk Stratification of Emergency Patients With Nonspecific Complaints

    PubMed Central

    Nickel, Christian Hans; Messmer, Anna Sarah; Ghanim, Leyla; Ilsemann-Karakoumis, Julia; Giersdorf, Sven; Hertel, Sabine; Ernst, Susanne; Geigy, Nicolas; Bingisser, Roland

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Patients with nonspecific complaints (NSC) presenting to the emergency department (ED) are at risk of life-threatening conditions. New stress biomarkers such as the midregional portion of adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) promise to support decision-making. This study tested the following hypotheses: biomarker-assisted disposition of patients with NSC will not increase mortality. Second, discharge from the ED will increase if clinical risk assessment is combined with low MR-proADM levels. Third, inappropriate disposition to a lower level of care will decrease, if clinical assessment is combined with high MR-proADM levels, and fourth that this algorithm is feasible in the ED setting. Prospective, multicenter, randomized, controlled interventional feasibility study with a 30-day follow-up, including patients with NSC. Patients were randomly assigned to either the standard group (decision-making solely based on clinical assessment) or the Novum group (biomarker-assisted). Regarding disposition, patients were assigned to 1 of 3 risk classes: high-risk (admission to hospital), intermediate risk (community geriatric hospital), and low-risk patients (discharge). In the Novum group, in addition to clinical risk assessment, the information of the MR-proADM level was used. Unless there were overruling criteria, patients were transferred or discharged according to the risk assessment. Primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Secondary endpoints were comparisons of patient disposition and related mortality rates, ED, and hospital length of stay and readmission. The final study cohort consisted of 398 patients (210 in the Standard group and 188 in the Novum group). Overruling, that is, disposition not according to the result of the proposed algorithm occurred in 51 cases. Baseline characteristics between Standard and Novum groups were similar. The mortality rate in the Novum group was 4.3%, as compared to the Standard group mortality of 6.2%, which was not significantly

  10. [Immunophenotype characteristics of patients with multiple myeloma in different risk stratification].

    PubMed

    Hu, Kai; Wang, Jing; Zhu, Ming-Xia; Wang, Yan-Fang; Ke, Xiao-Yan

    2014-12-01

    This study assessed the immunophenotype characteristics of newly diagosised patients with multiple myeloma (MM) in different risk stratification in order to find the relationship between the immunophenotype and prognosis of MM. The expressions of CD45, CD38, CD138, CD56, CD19, CD117, CD13, CD20, CD22, CD34, Kappa, Lambda in bone marrow samples from 62 newly diagnosed MM patients were detected by using flow cytometric multiparametric direct immunofluorescence technique, CD45/SSC and CD38/SSC combination gating, then the immumophemotypic characteristics of patients in different risk stratification groups were analyzed and compared. The new risk stratification of all patients was carried out according to ISS stages (Interuational Staging System) and cytogenetic characteristics. The results indicated that all the malignant plasma cells commonly expressed CD38 (100%) and CD138 (100%); CD19⁺ (6.5%) ,CD45⁺ (22.6%), CD56⁺ (59.6%) and monoclonal light chain (82%); but the expressions of CD117⁺ (27.4%) , CD13⁺ (17.7%) , CD20⁺ (16.1%) were diverse. According to risk stratification, it is found that the standard-risk and high-risk groups had lower expression of CD56 (P = 0.022) and higher expression of CD117 (P = 0.011), compared with the low-risk group. It is concluded that the immunophenotype of MM is heterogeneity, the lower expression of CD56 and higher expression of CD117 may be associate with poor prognosis.

  11. Combinatorial Immunoprofiling in Latent Tuberculosis Infection. Toward Better Risk Stratification

    PubMed Central

    Peikert, Tobias; Van Keulen, Virginia P.; Erskine, Courtney L.; Bornhorst, Cathy L.; Andrist, Boleyn R.; McCoy, Kevin; Pease, Larry R.; Abraham, Roshini S.; Knutson, Keith L.; Kita, Hirohito; Schrum, Adam G.; Limper, Andrew H.

    2015-01-01

    Rationale: Most immunocompetent patients diagnosed with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) will not progress to tuberculosis (TB) reactivation. However, current diagnostic tools cannot reliably distinguish nonprogressing from progressing patients a priori, and thus LTBI therapy must be prescribed with suboptimal patient specificity. We hypothesized that LTBI diagnostics could be improved by generating immunomarker profiles capable of categorizing distinct patient subsets by a combinatorial immunoassay approach. Objectives: A combinatorial immunoassay analysis was applied to identify potential immunomarker combinations that distinguish among unexposed subjects, untreated patients with LTBI, and treated patients with LTBI and to differentiate risk of reactivation. Methods: IFN-γ release assay (IGRA) was combined with a flow cytometric assay that detects induction of CD25+CD134+ coexpression on TB antigen–stimulated T cells from peripheral blood. The combinatorial immunoassay analysis was based on receiver operating characteristic curves, technical cut-offs, 95% bivariate normal density ellipse prediction, and statistical analysis. Risk of reactivation was estimated with a prediction formula. Measurements and Main Results: Sixty-five out of 150 subjects were included. The combinatorial immunoassay approach identified at least four different T-cell subsets. The representation of these immune phenotypes was more heterogeneous in untreated patients with LTBI than in treated patients with LTBI or unexposed groups. Patients with IGRA(+) CD4+CD25+CD134+ T-cell phenotypes had the highest estimated reactivation risk (4.11 ± 2.11%). Conclusions: These findings suggest that immune phenotypes defined by combinatorial assays may potentially have a role in identifying those at risk of developing TB; this potential role is supported by risk of reactivation modeling. Prospective studies will be needed to test this novel approach. PMID:26030344

  12. Improving Clinical Risk Stratification at Diagnosis in Primary Prostate Cancer: A Prognostic Modelling Study

    PubMed Central

    Wright, Karen A.; Muir, Kenneth R.; Gavin, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Over 80% of the nearly 1 million men diagnosed with prostate cancer annually worldwide present with localised or locally advanced non-metastatic disease. Risk stratification is the cornerstone for clinical decision making and treatment selection for these men. The most widely applied stratification systems use presenting prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration, biopsy Gleason grade, and clinical stage to classify patients as low, intermediate, or high risk. There is, however, significant heterogeneity in outcomes within these standard groupings. The International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) has recently adopted a prognosis-based pathological classification that has yet to be included within a risk stratification system. Here we developed and tested a new stratification system based on the number of individual risk factors and incorporating the new ISUP prognostic score. Methods and Findings Diagnostic clinicopathological data from 10,139 men with non-metastatic prostate cancer were available for this study from the Public Health England National Cancer Registration Service Eastern Office. This cohort was divided into a training set (n = 6,026; 1,557 total deaths, with 462 from prostate cancer) and a testing set (n = 4,113; 1,053 total deaths, with 327 from prostate cancer). The median follow-up was 6.9 y, and the primary outcome measure was prostate-cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). An external validation cohort (n = 1,706) was also used. Patients were first categorised as low, intermediate, or high risk using the current three-stratum stratification system endorsed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines. The variables used to define the groups (PSA concentration, Gleason grading, and clinical stage) were then used to sub-stratify within each risk category by testing the individual and then combined number of risk factors. In addition, we incorporated the new ISUP prognostic score as a discriminator

  13. Improving Clinical Risk Stratification at Diagnosis in Primary Prostate Cancer: A Prognostic Modelling Study

    PubMed Central

    Wright, Karen A.; Muir, Kenneth R.; Gavin, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Over 80% of the nearly 1 million men diagnosed with prostate cancer annually worldwide present with localised or locally advanced non-metastatic disease. Risk stratification is the cornerstone for clinical decision making and treatment selection for these men. The most widely applied stratification systems use presenting prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration, biopsy Gleason grade, and clinical stage to classify patients as low, intermediate, or high risk. There is, however, significant heterogeneity in outcomes within these standard groupings. The International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) has recently adopted a prognosis-based pathological classification that has yet to be included within a risk stratification system. Here we developed and tested a new stratification system based on the number of individual risk factors and incorporating the new ISUP prognostic score. Methods and Findings Diagnostic clinicopathological data from 10,139 men with non-metastatic prostate cancer were available for this study from the Public Health England National Cancer Registration Service Eastern Office. This cohort was divided into a training set (n = 6,026; 1,557 total deaths, with 462 from prostate cancer) and a testing set (n = 4,113; 1,053 total deaths, with 327 from prostate cancer). The median follow-up was 6.9 y, and the primary outcome measure was prostate-cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). An external validation cohort (n = 1,706) was also used. Patients were first categorised as low, intermediate, or high risk using the current three-stratum stratification system endorsed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines. The variables used to define the groups (PSA concentration, Gleason grading, and clinical stage) were then used to sub-stratify within each risk category by testing the individual and then combined number of risk factors. In addition, we incorporated the new ISUP prognostic score as a discriminator

  14. Risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases: Opportunities for clinicians and trialists.

    PubMed

    Trivedi, Palak J; Corpechot, Christophe; Pares, Albert; Hirschfield, Gideon M

    2016-02-01

    Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are infrequent autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases, that disproportionate to their incidence and prevalence, remain very important causes of morbidity and mortality for patients with liver disease. Mechanistic insights spanning genetic risks and biological pathways to liver injury and fibrosis have led to a renewed interest in developing therapies beyond ursodeoxycholic acid that are aimed at both slowing disease course and improving quality of life. International cohort studies have facilitated a much greater understanding of disease heterogeneity, and in so doing highlight the opportunity to provide patients with a more individualized assessment of their risk of progressive liver disease, based on clinical, laboratory, or imaging findings. This has led to a new approach to patient care that focuses on risk stratification (both high and low risk); and furthermore allows such stratification tools to help identify patient subgroups at greatest potential benefit from inclusion in clinical trials. In this article, we review the applicability and validity of risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver disease, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of current and emergent approaches. (Hepatology 2016;63:644-659). PMID:26290473

  15. Risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases: Opportunities for clinicians and trialists

    PubMed Central

    Trivedi, Palak J.; Corpechot, Christophe; Pares, Albert

    2015-01-01

    Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are infrequent autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases, that disproportionate to their incidence and prevalence, remain very important causes of morbidity and mortality for patients with liver disease. Mechanistic insights spanning genetic risks and biological pathways to liver injury and fibrosis have led to a renewed interest in developing therapies beyond ursodeoxycholic acid that are aimed at both slowing disease course and improving quality of life. International cohort studies have facilitated a much greater understanding of disease heterogeneity, and in so doing highlight the opportunity to provide patients with a more individualized assessment of their risk of progressive liver disease, based on clinical, laboratory, or imaging findings. This has led to a new approach to patient care that focuses on risk stratification (both high and low risk); and furthermore allows such stratification tools to help identify patient subgroups at greatest potential benefit from inclusion in clinical trials. In this article, we review the applicability and validity of risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver disease, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of current and emergent approaches. (Hepatology 2016;63:644–659) PMID:26290473

  16. There's risk, and then there's risk: The latest clinical prognostic risk stratification models in myelodysplastic syndromes.

    PubMed

    Zeidan, Amer M; Komrokji, Rami S

    2013-12-01

    Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) include a diverse group of clonal hematopoietic disorders characterized by progressive cytopenias and propensity for leukemic progression. The biologic heterogeneity that underlies MDS translates clinically in wide variations of clinical outcomes. Several prognostic schemes were developed to predict the natural course of MDS, counsel patients, and allow evidence-based, risk-adaptive implementation of therapeutic strategies. The prognostic schemes divide patients into subgroups with similar prognosis, but the extent to which the prognostic prediction applies to any individual patient is more variable. None of these instruments was designed to predict the clinical benefit in relation to any specific MDS therapy. The prognostic impact of molecular mutations is being more recognized and attempts at incorporating it into the current prognostic schemes are ongoing.

  17. Midregional Proadrenomedullin Improves Risk Stratification beyond Surgical Risk Scores in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

    PubMed Central

    Schuetz, Philipp; Huber, Andreas; Müller, Beat; Maisano, Francesco; Taramasso, Maurizio; Moarof, Igal; Obeid, Slayman; Stähli, Barbara E.; Cahenzly, Martin; Binder, Ronald K.; Liebetrau, Christoph; Möllmann, Helge; Kim, Won-Keun; Hamm, Christian; Lüscher, Thomas F.

    2015-01-01

    Background Conventional surgical risk scores lack accuracy in risk stratification of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Elevated levels of midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) levels are associated with adverse outcome not only in patients with manifest chronic disease states, but also in the general population. Objectives We investigated the predictive value of MR-proADM for mortality in an unselected contemporary TAVR population. Methods We prospectively included 153 patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVR from September 2013 to August 2014. This population was compared to an external validation cohort of 205 patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVR. The primary endpoint was all cause mortality. Results During a median follow-up of 258 days, 17 out of 153 patients who underwent TAVR died (11%). Patients with MR-proADM levels above the 75th percentile (≥ 1.3 nmol/l) had higher mortality (31% vs. 4%, HR 8.9, 95% CI 3.0–26.0, P < 0.01), whereas patients with EuroSCORE II scores above the 75th percentile (> 6.8) only showed a trend towards higher mortality (18% vs. 9%, HR 2.1, 95% CI 0.8–5.6, P = 0.13). The Harrell’s C-statistic was 0.58 (95% CI 0.45–0.82) for the EuroSCORE II, and consideration of baseline MR-proADM levels significantly improved discrimination (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI 0.71–0.92, P = 0.01). In bivariate analysis adjusted for EuroSCORE II, MR-proADM levels ≥1.3 nmol/l persisted as an independent predictor of mortality (HR 9.9, 95% CI (3.1–31.3), P <0.01) and improved the model’s net reclassification index (0.89, 95% CI (0.28–1.59). These results were confirmed in the independent validation cohort. Conclusions Our study identified MR-proADM as a novel predictor of mortality in patients undergoing TAVR. In the future, MR-proADM should be added to the commonly used EuroSCORE II for better risk stratification of patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis. PMID

  18. Novel biomarkers for risk stratification and identification of life-threatening cardiovascular disease: troponin and beyond.

    PubMed

    Razzouk, Louai; Fusaro, Mario; Esquitin, Ricardo

    2012-05-01

    Chest pain and other symptoms that may represent acute coronary syndromes (ACS) are common reasons for emergency department (ED) presentations, accounting for over six million visits annually in the United States [1]. Chest pain is the second most common ED presentation in the United States. Delays in diagnosis and inaccurate risk stratification of chest pain can result in serious morbidity and mortality from ACS, pulmonary embolism (PE), aortic dissection and other serious pathology. Because of the high morbidity, mortality, and liability issues associated with both recognized and unrecognized cardiovascular pathology, an aggressive approach to the evaluation of this patient group has become the standard of care. Clinical history, physical examination and electrocardiography have a limited diagnostic and prognostic role in the evaluation of possible ACS, PE, and aortic dissection, so clinicians continue to seek more accurate means of risk stratification. Recent advances in diagnostic imaging techniques particularly computed-tomography of the coronary arteries and aorta, have significantly improved our ability to diagnose life-threatening cardiovascular disease. In an era where health care utilization and cost are major considerations in how disease is managed, it is crucial to risk-stratify patients quickly and efficiently. Historically, biomarkers have played a significant role in the diagnosis and risk stratification of several cardiovascular disease states including myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, and pulmonary embolus. Multiple biomarkers have shown early promise in answering questions of risk stratification and early diagnosis of cardiovascular pathology however many do not yet have wide clinical availability. The goal of this review will be to discuss these novel biomarkers and describe their potential role in direct patient care. PMID:22708908

  19. T Wave Alternans And Ventricular Tachyarrhythmia Risk Stratification: A Review

    PubMed Central

    Takagi, Masahiko; Yoshikawa, Junichi

    2003-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is one of the leading causes of mortality in industrialized countries. Thus, identifying patients at high risk of SCD is an important goal. T wave alternans (TWA) is a new method for identifying patients with lethal ventricular tachyarrhythmias, and is dependent on heart rate. The maximal predictive accuracy is achieved at heart rates between 100 and 120 bpm, so that TWA is usually measured during exercise, phamacological stress, or atrial pacing. It has been shown that TWA has high sensitivity and negative predictive value for predicting SCD after myocardial infarction and is also useful for predicting SCD in patients with nonischemic cardiomyopathy. Although the implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is now the primary therapy for preventing SCD, it is difficult to identify those patients who are susceptible to lethal ventricular tachyarrhythmias for primary prevention. In the prediction of SCD, TWA can be used as a screening test of appropriate patients for further electrophysiological examination and therapy. PMID:16943959

  20. Electrocardiographic methods for diagnosis and risk stratification in the Brugada syndrome.

    PubMed

    Naseef, Abdulrahman; Behr, Elijah R; Batchvarov, Velislav N

    2015-04-01

    The Brugada syndrome (BrS) is a malignant, genetically-determined, arrhythmic syndrome manifesting as syncope or sudden cardiac death (SCD) in individuals with structurally normal hearts. The diagnosis of the BrS is mainly based on the presence of a spontaneous or Na + channel blocker induced characteristic, electrocardiographic (ECG) pattern (type 1 or coved Brugada ECG pattern) typically seen in leads V1 and V2 recorded from the 4th to 2nd intercostal (i.c.) spaces. This pattern needs to be distinguished from similar ECG changes due to other causes (Brugada ECG phenocopies). This review focuses mainly on the ECG-based methods for diagnosis and arrhythmia risk assessment in the BrS. Presently, the main unresolved clinical problem is the identification of those patients at high risk of SCD who need implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD), which is the only therapy with proven efficacy. Current guidelines recommend ICD implantation only in patients with spontaneous type 1 ECG pattern, and either history of aborted cardiac arrest or documented sustained VT (class I), or syncope of arrhythmic origin (class IIa) because they are at high risk of recurrent arrhythmic events (up to 10% or more annually for those with aborted cardiac arrest). The majority of BrS patients are asymptomatic when diagnosed and considered to have low risk (around 0.5% annually) and therefore not indicated for ICD. The majority of SCD victims in the BrS, however, had no symptoms prior to the fatal event and therefore were not protected with an ICD. While some ECG markers such as QRS fragmentation, infero-lateral early repolarisation, and abnormal late potentials on signal-averaged ECG are known to be linked to increased arrhythmic risk, they are not sufficiently sensitive or specific. Potential novel ECG-based strategies for risk stratification are discussed based on computerised methods for depolarisation and repolarisation analysis, a composite approach targeting several major

  1. SIOP-PODC adapted risk stratification and treatment guidelines: Recommendations for neuroblastoma in low- and middle-income settings.

    PubMed

    Parikh, Nehal S; Howard, Scott C; Chantada, Guillermo; Israels, Trijn; Khattab, Mohammed; Alcasabas, Patricia; Lam, Catherine G; Faulkner, Lawrence; Park, Julie R; London, Wendy B; Matthay, Katherine K

    2015-08-01

    Neuroblastoma is the most common extracranial solid tumor in childhood in high-income countries (HIC), where consistent treatment approaches based on clinical and tumor biological risk stratification have steadily improved outcomes. However, in low- and middle- income countries (LMIC), suboptimal diagnosis, risk stratification, and treatment may occur due to limited resources and unavailable infrastructure. The clinical practice guidelines outlined in this manuscript are based on current published evidence and expert opinions. Standard risk stratification and treatment explicitly adapted to graduated resource settings can improve outcomes for children with neuroblastoma by reducing preventable toxic death and relapse.

  2. Prognostic factors and risk stratification in chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

    PubMed

    Parikh, Sameer A; Shanafelt, Tait D

    2016-04-01

    There is considerable heterogeneity in the clinical outcome of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). While some patients live for decades without any therapy, others die within years of diagnosis despite multiple treatments. To better counsel newly diagnosed CLL patients about their disease course, the Rai and Binet staging systems were developed four decades ago. A deeper understanding of the biologic and molecular aberrations contributing to the pathogenesis of CLL led to identification of novel prognostic markers such as immunoglobulin heavy-chain variable gene (IGHV) mutation status, leukemia-cell expression of CD38, ZAP-70, and CD49d, and cytogenetic abnormalities detected by fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH). The advent of next-generation sequencing has provided unprecedented insights into the subclonal architecture of CLL and its impact on disease progression and survival. More recently, integrated prognostic scoring systems that incorporate clinical, biologic and genetic characteristics into a single risk score have been developed and appear to improve the accuracy of prognostication for individual patients. This review summarizes the state-of-the-art prognostic factors and will guide the practicing clinician in their care of patients with CLL. PMID:27040701

  3. Diagnosis and risk stratification of women with stable ischemic heart disease.

    PubMed

    Isiadinso, Ijeoma; Shaw, Leslee J

    2016-10-01

    Although mortality rates for cardiovascular disease are on the decline, it remains the leading cause of death among men and women in the United States. Until recently, more women died of heart disease every year than men. Significant effort has been focused on increasing the awareness of cardiovascular disease among women, but ethnic disparities in awareness still exist. Early symptom recognition, risk assessment, and diagnosis of CAD are paramount in reducing cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in women. This review will highlight the unique risk factors for CAD in women, variability in clinical presentation for ischemic heart disease, and risk stratification for CAD in symptomatic women. PMID:27473217

  4. Short-term vs. long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Schulz, Steffen; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antoni; Caminal, Pere

    2013-01-01

    In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3–2% of the general population. The investigation of 24 h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV) for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF). However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive, and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30 min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24 h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients [221 at low risk (IHFLR) and 35 at high risk (IHFHR)] (a) 24 h beat-to-beat time series (b) the first 30 min segment (c) the 30 min most stationary day segment and (d) the 30 min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain) and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 h and for each 30 min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p < 0.01) discriminating between IHFLR and IHFHR. For multivariate risk stratification, optimal mixed parameter sets consisting of 5 indices (clinical and nonlinear) achieved 80.4% AUC (area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics) from 24 h HRV analysis, 84.3% AUC from first 30 min, 82.2 % AUC from daytime 30 min and 81.7% AUC from nighttime 30 min. The optimal parameter set obtained from the first 30 min showed nearly the same classification power when compared to the optimal 24 h-parameter set. As results from stationary daytime and nighttime, 30 min segments indicate that short-term analyses of 30 min may provide at least a comparable risk stratification power in IHF in comparison to a 24 h analysis period. PMID:24379785

  5. Probabilistic Modeling Of Ocular Biomechanics In VIIP: Risk Stratification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feola, A.; Myers, J. G.; Raykin, J.; Nelson, E. S.; Mulugeta, L.; Samuels, B.; Ethier, C. R.

    2016-01-01

    the peak strains, we ranked and then normalized these coefficients, considering that normalized values 0.5 implied a substantial influence on the range of the peak strains in the optic nerve head (ONH). IOP and ICP were found to have a major influence on the peak strains in the ONH, as did optic nerve and LC stiffness. Interestingly, the stiffness of the sclera far from the scleral canal did not have a large influence on peak strains in ONH tissues; however, the collagen fiber stiffness in the peripapillary sclera and annular ring both influenced the peak strains within the ONH. We have created a physiologically relevant model that incorporated collagen fibers to study the effects of elevated ICP. Elevated ICP resulted in strains in the optic nerve that are not predicted to occur on earth: the upright or supine conditions. We found that IOP, ICP, lamina cribrosa stiffness and optic nerve stiffness had the highest association with these extreme strains in the ONH. These extreme strains may activate mechanosensitive cells that induce tissue remodeling and are a risk factor for the development of VIIP.

  6. Percentage of Positive Biopsy Cores: A Better Risk Stratification Model for Prostate Cancer?

    SciTech Connect

    Huang Jiayi; Vicini, Frank A.; Williams, Scott G.; Ye Hong; McGrath, Samuel; Ghilezan, Mihai; Krauss, Daniel; Martinez, Alvaro A.; Kestin, Larry L.

    2012-07-15

    Purpose: To assess the prognostic value of the percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPC) and perineural invasion in predicting the clinical outcomes after radiotherapy (RT) for prostate cancer and to explore the possibilities to improve on existing risk-stratification models. Methods and Materials: Between 1993 and 2004, 1,056 patients with clinical Stage T1c-T3N0M0 prostate cancer, who had four or more biopsy cores sampled and complete biopsy core data available, were treated with external beam RT, with or without a high-dose-rate brachytherapy boost at William Beaumont Hospital. The median follow-up was 7.6 years. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed with PPC, Gleason score, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen, T stage, PNI, radiation dose, androgen deprivation, age, prostate-specific antigen frequency, and follow-up duration. A new risk stratification (PPC classification) was empirically devised to incorporate PPC and replace the T stage. Results: On multivariate Cox regression analysis, the PPC was an independent predictor of distant metastasis, cause-specific survival, and overall survival (all p < .05). A PPC >50% was associated with significantly greater distant metastasis (hazard ratio, 4.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.86-8.61), and its independent predictive value remained significant with or without androgen deprivation therapy (all p < .05). In contrast, PNI and T stage were only predictive for locoregional recurrence. Combining the PPC ({<=}50% vs. >50%) with National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk stratification demonstrated added prognostic value of distant metastasis for the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio, 5.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-16.6) and high-risk (hazard ratio, 4.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.70-11.3) groups, regardless of the use of androgen deprivation and high-dose RT (all p < .05). The proposed PPC classification appears to provide improved stratification of the clinical outcomes relative to the National

  7. An operative dengue risk stratification system in Argentina based on geospatial technology.

    PubMed

    Porcasi, Ximena; Rotela, Camilo H; Introini, María V; Frutos, Nicolás; Lanfri, Sofía; Peralta, Gonzalo; De Elia, Estefanía A; Lanfri, Mario A; Scavuzzo, Carlos M

    2012-09-01

    Based on an agreement between the Ministry of Health and the National Space Activities Commission in Argentina, an integrated informatics platform for dengue risk using geospatial technology for the surveillance and prediction of risk areas for dengue fever has been designed. The task was focused on developing stratification based on environmental (historical and current), viral, social and entomological situation for >3,000 cities as part of a system. The platform, developed with open-source software with pattern design, following the European Space Agency standards for space informatics, delivers two products: a national risk map consisting of point vectors for each city/town/locality and an approximate 50 m resolution urban risk map modelling the risk inside selected high-risk cities. The operative system, architecture and tools used in the development are described, including a detailed list of end users' requirements. Additionally, an algorithm based on bibliography and landscape epidemiology concepts is presented and discussed. The system, in operation since September 2011, is capable of continuously improving the algorithms producing improved risk stratifications without a complete set of inputs. The platform was specifically developed for surveillance of dengue fever as this disease has reemerged in Argentina but the aim is to widen the scope to include also other relevant vector-borne diseases such as chagas, malaria and leishmaniasis as well as other countries belonging to south region of Latin America.

  8. Stratification of responders towards eculizumab using a structural epitope mapping strategy

    PubMed Central

    Volk, Anna-Luisa; Hu, Francis Jingxin; Berglund, Magnus M.; Nordling, Erik; Strömberg, Patrik; Uhlen, Mathias; Rockberg, Johan

    2016-01-01

    The complement component 5 (C5)-binding antibody eculizumab is used to treat patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) and atypical haemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS). As recently reported there is a need for a precise classification of eculizumab responsive patients to allow for a safe and cost-effective treatment. To allow for such stratification, knowledge of the precise binding site of the drug on its target is crucial. Using a structural epitope mapping strategy based on bacterial surface display, flow cytometric sorting and validation via haemolytic activity testing, we identified six residues essential for binding of eculizumab to C5. This epitope co-localizes with the contact area recently identified by crystallography and includes positions in C5 mutated in non-responders. The identified epitope also includes residue W917, which is unique for human C5 and explains the observed lack of cross-reactivity for eculizumab with other primates. We could demonstrate that Ornithodorus moubata complement inhibitor (OmCI), in contrast to eculizumab, maintained anti-haemolytic function for mutations in any of the six epitope residues, thus representing a possible alternative treatment for patients non-responsive to eculizumab. The method for stratification of patients described here allows for precision medicine and should be applicable to several other diseases and therapeutics. PMID:27509843

  9. Stratification of responders towards eculizumab using a structural epitope mapping strategy.

    PubMed

    Volk, Anna-Luisa; Hu, Francis Jingxin; Berglund, Magnus M; Nordling, Erik; Strömberg, Patrik; Uhlen, Mathias; Rockberg, Johan

    2016-01-01

    The complement component 5 (C5)-binding antibody eculizumab is used to treat patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) and atypical haemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS). As recently reported there is a need for a precise classification of eculizumab responsive patients to allow for a safe and cost-effective treatment. To allow for such stratification, knowledge of the precise binding site of the drug on its target is crucial. Using a structural epitope mapping strategy based on bacterial surface display, flow cytometric sorting and validation via haemolytic activity testing, we identified six residues essential for binding of eculizumab to C5. This epitope co-localizes with the contact area recently identified by crystallography and includes positions in C5 mutated in non-responders. The identified epitope also includes residue W917, which is unique for human C5 and explains the observed lack of cross-reactivity for eculizumab with other primates. We could demonstrate that Ornithodorus moubata complement inhibitor (OmCI), in contrast to eculizumab, maintained anti-haemolytic function for mutations in any of the six epitope residues, thus representing a possible alternative treatment for patients non-responsive to eculizumab. The method for stratification of patients described here allows for precision medicine and should be applicable to several other diseases and therapeutics. PMID:27509843

  10. Sudden cardiac arrest risk stratification based on 24-hour Holter ECG statistics.

    PubMed

    Kasahara, Keisuke; Shiobara, Masahito; Nakamura, Saya; Yamashiro, Koichiro; Yana, Kazuo; Ono, Takuya

    2015-08-01

    This study examined the feasibility of using indices obtained from a long term Holter ECG record for sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) risk stratification. The ndices tested were the QT-RR interval co-variability and the alternans ratio percentile (ARP(θ)) which is defined as the θ(th) percentile of alternans ratios over a 24 hour period. The QT-RR interval co-variabilities are evaluated by the serial correlation coefficient between QT and RR trend sequences (QTRC). Previously reported Kalman filter technique and a simple smoothing spline method for the trend estimation are compared. Parameter θ in the alternans ratio percentile index was optimized to achieve the best classification accuracy. These indices were estimated from 26 cardiovascular outpatients for Holter ECG record. Patients were classified into high and low risk groups according to their clinical diagnosis, and the obtained indices were compared with those of 25 control subjects. A risk stratification using the two indices QTRC and ARP(θ) yielded an average sensitivity of 0.812 and a specificity of 0.925. The sensitivities and specificities of all three categories exceeded 0.8 except for the sensitivity to detect the high-risk patient group. Other short-term ECG parameters may need to be incorporated in order to improve the sensitivity.

  11. Stratification of the Risk of Sudden Death in Nonischemic Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Pimentel, Maurício; Zimerman, Leandro Ioschpe; Rohde, Luis Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    Despite significant therapeutic advancements, heart failure remains a highly prevalent clinical condition associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In 30%-40% patients, the etiology of heart failure is nonischemic. The implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is capable of preventing sudden death and decreasing total mortality in patients with nonischemic heart failure. However, a significant number of patients receiving ICD do not receive any kind of therapy during follow-up. Moreover, considering the situation in Brazil and several other countries, ICD cannot be implanted in all patients with nonischemic heart failure. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify patients at an increased risk of sudden death because these would benefit more than patients at a lower risk, despite the presence of heart failure in both risk groups. In this study, the authors review the primary available methods for the stratification of the risk of sudden death in patients with nonischemic heart failure. PMID:25352509

  12. Prognostic value of cardiac biomarkers in the risk stratification of syncope: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Thiruganasambandamoorthy, Venkatesh; Ramaekers, Rosa; Rahman, Mohammed Omair; Stiell, Ian Gilmour; Sikora, Lindsey; Kelly, Sarah-Louise; Christ, Michael; Claret, Pierre-Geraud; Reed, Matthew James

    2015-12-01

    The role of cardiac biomarkers in risk stratification of syncope is unclear. We undertook a systematic review to assess their predictive value for short-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We conducted a systematic review using MEDLINE, EMBASE, DARE and Cochrane databases from inception to July 2014. We included studies involving adult syncope patients that evaluated cardiac biomarker levels for risk stratification during acute management and excluded case reports, reviews and studies involving children. Primary outcome (MACE) included death, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, myocardial infarction (MI), structural heart disease, pulmonary embolism, significant hemorrhage or cardiac procedural interventions. Secondary outcome analysis assessed for prediction of MI, cardiac syncope and death. Two reviewers extracted patient-level data based on the cut-off reported. Pooled sensitivities and specificities were calculated using patient-level data. A total of 1862 articles were identified, and 11 studies with 4246 patients were included. Studies evaluated 3 biomarkers: contemporary troponin (2693 patients), natriuretic peptides (1353 patients) and high-sensitive troponin (819 patients). The pooled sensitivities and specificities for MACE were: contemporary troponin 0.29 (95 % CI 0.24, 0.34) and 0.88 (95 % CI 0.86, 0.89); natriuretic peptides 0.77 (95 % CI 0.69, 0.85) and 0.73 (95 % CI 0.70, 0.76); high-sensitive troponin 0.74 (95 % CI 0.65, 0.83) and 0.65 (95 % CI 0.62, 0.69), respectively. Natriuretic peptides and high-sensitive troponin showed good diagnostic characteristics for both primary and secondary outcomes. Natriuretic peptides and high-sensitive troponin might be useful in risk stratification.

  13. Genotype-specific risk stratification and management of patients with long QT syndrome.

    PubMed

    Barsheshet, Alon; Dotsenko, Olena; Goldenberg, Ilan

    2013-11-01

    Long QT syndrome (LQTS) is an inherited disorder associated with life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias. An understanding of the relationship between the genotype and phenotype characteristics of LQTS can lead to improved risk stratification and management of this hereditary arrhythmogenic disorder. Risk stratification in LQTS relies on combined assessment of clinical, electrocardiographic, and mutations-specific factors. Studies have shown that there are genotype-specific risk factors for arrhythmic events including age, gender, resting heart rate, QT corrected for heart rate, prior syncope, the postpartum period, menopause, mutation location, type of mutation, the biophysical function of the mutation, and response to beta-blockers. Importantly, genotype-specific therapeutic options have been suggested. Lifestyle changes are recommended according to the prevalent trigger for cardiac events. Beta-blockers confer greater benefit among patients with LQT1 with the greatest benefit among those with cytoplasmic loops mutations; specific beta-blocker agents may provide greater protection than other agents in specific LQTS genotypes. Potassium supplementation and sex hormone-based therapy may protect patients with LQT2. Sodium channel blockers such as mexiletine, flecainide, and ranolazine could be treatment options in LQT3. PMID:24206565

  14. Risk stratification for kidney sparing procedure in upper tract urothelial carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Khene, Zine-Eddine; Mathieu, Romain; Kammerer-Jacquet, Solène-Florence; Seisen, Thomas; Roupret, Morgan; Shariat, Shahrokh F.; Peyronnet, Benoit

    2016-01-01

    Risk stratification for kidney sparing procedures (KSP) to treat upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is a major issue. A non-systematic Medline/PubMed literature search was performed using the terms “upper tract urothelial carcinoma” with different combinations of keywords to review the current knowledge on this topic. Original articles, reviews and editorials in English language were selected based on their clinical relevance. Available techniques for KSP include segmental ureterectomy and endoscopic resection through a percutaneous or flexible ureteroscopic access. These approaches were traditionally restricted to patients with imperative indications. Current recommendations suggest that selected patients with normal contralateral kidney should also be candidates for such treatments. Modern imaging and endoscopy have improved to accurately stage and grade the tumor while various prognostic clinical factors and biomarkers have been proposed to identify tumor with aggressive features and worse outcomes. Several predictive models using different combinations of such baseline characteristics may help clinicians in clinical decision making. However, risk-adapted based approach that has been proposed in recent guidelines to identify patients who are more likely to benefit from KSP only relies on few clinical and pathological factors. Despite growing understanding of the disease, treatment of UTUC remains challenging. Further efforts and collaborative multicenter studies are mandatory to improve risk stratification to decide and promote optimal KSP in UTUC. These efforts should focus on the integration of promising biomarkers and predictive tools in clinical decision making. PMID:27785428

  15. Risk Stratification for Athletes and Adventurers in High-Altitude Environments: Recommendations for Preparticipation Evaluation.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Aaron D; McIntosh, Scott E; Nyberg, Andy; Powell, Amy P; Schoene, Robert B; Hackett, Peter

    2015-12-01

    High-altitude athletes and adventurers face a number of environmental and medical risks. Clinicians often advise participants or guiding agencies before or during these experiences. Preparticipation evaluation (PPE) has the potential to reduce risk of high-altitude illnesses in athletes and adventurers. Specific conditions susceptible to high-altitude exacerbation also important to evaluate include cardiovascular and lung diseases. Recommendations by which to counsel individuals before participation in altitude sports and adventures are few and of limited focus. We reviewed the literature, collected expert opinion, and augmented principles of a traditional sport PPE to accommodate the high-altitude wilderness athlete/adventurer. We present our findings with specific recommendations on risk stratification during a PPE for the high-altitude athlete/adventurer.

  16. Value of planar 201Tl imaging in risk stratification of patients recovering from acute myocardial infarction

    SciTech Connect

    Gibson, R.S.; Watson, D.D. )

    1991-09-01

    Although exercise ECG testing has been shown to have important prognostic value after acute myocardial infarction, exercise 201Tl scintigraphy offers several potential advantages, including: (1) increased sensitivity for detecting residual myocardial ischemia; (2) the ability to localize ischemia to a specific area or areas subtended by a specific coronary artery; (3) the ability to identify exercise-induced left ventricular dysfunction, which is manifested by increased lung uptake or transient left ventricular dilation; and (4) more reliable risk stratification of individual patients. The more optimal prognostic efficiency of 201Tl scintigraphy partially results from the fact that the error rate in falsely classifying patients as low risk is significantly smaller with 201Tl scintigraphy than with stress ECG. Because of these substantial advantages, there seems to be adequate rationale for recommending exercise perfusion imaging rather than exercise ECG alone as the preferred method for evaluating mortality and morbidity risks after acute myocardial infarction.

  17. Proposal for a new risk stratification classification for meningioma based on patient age, WHO tumor grade, size, localization, and karyotype

    PubMed Central

    Domingues, Patrícia Henriques; Sousa, Pablo; Otero, Álvaro; Gonçalves, Jesus Maria; Ruiz, Laura; de Oliveira, Catarina; Lopes, Maria Celeste; Orfao, Alberto; Tabernero, Maria Dolores

    2014-01-01

    Background Tumor recurrence remains the major clinical complication of meningiomas, the majority of recurrences occurring among WHO grade I/benign tumors. In the present study, we propose a new scoring system for the prognostic stratification of meningioma patients based on analysis of a large series of meningiomas followed for a median of >5 years. Methods Tumor cytogenetics were systematically investigated by interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization in 302 meningioma samples, and the proposed classification was further validated in an independent series of cases (n = 132) analyzed by high-density (500K) single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays. Results Overall, we found an adverse impact on patient relapse-free survival (RFS) for males, presence of brain edema, younger patients (<55 years), tumor size >50 mm, tumor localization at intraventricular and anterior cranial base areas, WHO grade II/III meningiomas, and complex karyotypes; the latter 5 variables showed an independent predictive value in multivariate analysis. Based on these parameters, a prognostic score was established for each individual case, and patients were stratified into 4 risk categories with significantly different (P < .001) outcomes. These included a good prognosis group, consisting of approximately 20% of cases, that showed a RFS of 100% ± 0% at 10 years and a very poor-prognosis group with a RFS rate of 0% ± 0% at 10 years. The prognostic impact of the scoring system proposed here was also retained when WHO grade I cases were considered separately (P < .001). Conclusions Based on this risk-stratification classification, different strategies may be adopted for follow-up, and eventually also for treatment, of meningioma patients at different risks for relapse. PMID:24536048

  18. Gestational trophoblastic neoplasia, management as per risk stratification in a developing country

    PubMed Central

    Hussain, Ansar; Shiekh, Aejaz Aziz; Bhat, Gul Mohd; Lone, A. R.

    2016-01-01

    Aims: The purpose of this analysis was to address the outcome of GTN from a tertiary care centre of India. Materials and Methods: We undertook a retrospective and prospective review of GTN cases treated at our centre from 2006 to 2014. Patients of GTN were assigned to low-risk or high-risk categories as per the FIGO scoring system. The low-risk group was treated with combination of actinomycin-D and methotrexate (MTX) and the high-risk group received the EMA/CO regimen. Salvage therapy was EP/TP. Treatment was continued for 3 cycles after normalization of β-hCG level, after which the patients were kept on follow-up. Results: In total, 52 GTN patients were treated at our institution during this period; 21 were low-risk and 31 were in the high-risk category. The lung was the most common site of metastasis. All low risk patients achieved complete remission. Among high risk patients one patient died while receiving first cycle chemotherapy, one patient relapsed and 29 patients achieved complete remission. The single relapsed patient also achieved remission with 2nd line chemotherapy. Conclusion: 1. Two drug combination of Actinomycin-D and Methotrexate is a better alternative to single drug chemotherapy especially in developing countries were proper risk stratification is not always possible. 2. Patients with high disease burden should initially be treated with low dose chemotherapy to avoid life threatening visceral haemorrhage. PMID:27051154

  19. Pulmonary embolism, part I: Epidemiology, risk factors and risk stratification, pathophysiology, clinical presentation, diagnosis and nonthrombotic pulmonary embolism

    PubMed Central

    Bĕlohlávek, Jan; Dytrych, Vladimír; Linhart, Aleš

    2013-01-01

    Pulmonary embolism is an important clinical entity with considerable mortality despite advances in diagnosis and treatment. In the present article, the authors offer a comprehensive review focused mainly on epidemiology, risk factors, risk stratification, pathophysiological considerations and clinical presentation. Diagnosis based on assessment of clinical likelihood, electrocardiography, chest x-ray, D-dimer levels, markers of myocardial injury and overload, and blood gases is discussed in detail. Special attention is devoted to the clinical use of computed tomography, pulmonary angiography and echocardiography in the setting of pulmonary embolism. PMID:23940438

  20. Risk stratification of childhood medulloblastoma in the molecular era: the current consensus.

    PubMed

    Ramaswamy, Vijay; Remke, Marc; Bouffet, Eric; Bailey, Simon; Clifford, Steven C; Doz, Francois; Kool, Marcel; Dufour, Christelle; Vassal, Gilles; Milde, Till; Witt, Olaf; von Hoff, Katja; Pietsch, Torsten; Northcott, Paul A; Gajjar, Amar; Robinson, Giles W; Padovani, Laetitia; André, Nicolas; Massimino, Maura; Pizer, Barry; Packer, Roger; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pfister, Stefan M; Taylor, Michael D; Pomeroy, Scott L

    2016-06-01

    Historical risk stratification criteria for medulloblastoma rely primarily on clinicopathological variables pertaining to age, presence of metastases, extent of resection, histological subtypes and in some instances individual genetic aberrations such as MYC and MYCN amplification. In 2010, an international panel of experts established consensus defining four main subgroups of medulloblastoma (WNT, SHH, Group 3 and Group 4) delineated by transcriptional profiling. This has led to the current generation of biomarker-driven clinical trials assigning WNT tumors to a favorable prognosis group in addition to clinicopathological criteria including MYC and MYCN gene amplifications. However, outcome prediction of non-WNT subgroups is a challenge due to inconsistent survival reports. In 2015, a consensus conference was convened in Heidelberg with the objective to further refine the risk stratification in the context of subgroups and agree on a definition of risk groups of non-infant, childhood medulloblastoma (ages 3-17). Published and unpublished data over the past 5 years were reviewed, and a consensus was reached regarding the level of evidence for currently available biomarkers. The following risk groups were defined based on current survival rates: low risk (>90 % survival), average (standard) risk (75-90 % survival), high risk (50-75 % survival) and very high risk (<50 % survival) disease. The WNT subgroup and non-metastatic Group 4 tumors with whole chromosome 11 loss or whole chromosome 17 gain were recognized as low-risk tumors that may qualify for reduced therapy. High-risk strata were defined as patients with metastatic SHH or Group 4 tumors, or MYCN-amplified SHH medulloblastomas. Very high-risk patients are Group 3 with metastases or SHH with TP53 mutation. In addition, a number of consensus points were reached that should be standardized across future clinical trials. Although we anticipate new data will emerge from currently ongoing and recently

  1. Tools for risk stratification of sudden cardiac death: A review of the literature in different patient populations

    PubMed Central

    Ragupathi, Loheetha; Pavri, Behzad B.

    2014-01-01

    While various modalities to determine risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) have been reported in clinical studies, currently reduced left ventricular ejection fraction remains the cornerstone of SCD risk stratification. However, the absolute burden of SCD is greatest amongst populations without known cardiac disease. In this review, we summarize the evidence behind current guidelines for implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) use for the prevention of SCD in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD). We also evaluate the evidence for risk stratification tools beyond clinical guidelines in the general population, patients with IHD, and patients with other known or suspected medical conditions. PMID:24568833

  2. Risk Stratification for Sudden Cardiac Death In Patients With Non-ischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy

    PubMed Central

    Shekha, Karthik; Ghosh, Joydeep; Thekkoott, Deepak; Greenberg, Yisachar

    2005-01-01

    Non ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM) is a disorder of myocardium. It has varying etiologies. Albeit the varying etiologies of this heart muscle disorder, it presents with symptoms of heart failure, and rarely as sudden cardiac death (SCD). Manifestations of this disorder are in many ways similar to its counterpart, ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (IDCM). A proportion of patients with NIDCM carries a grave prognosis and is prone to sudden cardiac death from sustained ventricular arrhythmias. Identification of this subgroup of patients who carry the risk of sudden cardiac death despite adequate medical management is a challenge .Yet another method is a blanket treatment of patients with this disorder with anti arrhythmic medications or anti tachyarrhythmia devices like implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD). However this modality of treatment could be a costly exercise even for affluent economies. In this review we try to analyze the existing data of risk stratification of NIDCM and its clinical implications in practice. PMID:16943952

  3. The use of molecular-based risk stratification and pharmacogenomics for outcome prediction and personalized therapeutic management of multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Sarah K; Heuck, Christoph J; Albino, Anthony P; Qu, Pingping; Zhang, Qing; Barlogie, Bart; Shaughnessy, John D

    2011-10-01

    Despite improvement in therapeutic efficacy, multiple myeloma (MM) remains incurable with a median survival of approximately 10 years. Gene-expression profiling (GEP) can be used to elucidate the molecular basis for resistance to chemotherapy through global assessment of molecular alterations that exist at diagnosis, after therapeutic treatment and that evolve during tumor progression. Unique GEP signatures associated with recurrent chromosomal translocations and ploidy changes have defined molecular classes with differing clinical features and outcomes. When compared to other stratification systems the GEP70 test remained a significant predictor of outcome, reduced the number of patients classified with a poor prognosis, and identified patients at increased risk of relapse despite their standard clinico-pathologic and genetic findings. GEP studies of serial samples showed that risk increases over time, with relapsed disease showing GEP shifts toward a signature of poor outcomes. GEP signatures of myeloma cells after therapy were prognostic for event-free and overall survival and thus may be used to identify novel strategies for overcoming drug resistance. This brief review will focus on the use of GEP of MM to define high-risk myeloma, and elucidate underlying mechanisms that are beginning to change clinical decision-making and inform drug design. PMID:22002477

  4. A new comorbidities index for risk stratification for treatment of unruptured cerebral aneurysms.

    PubMed

    Newman, William C; Neal, Dan W; Hoh, Brian L

    2016-09-01

    OBJECTIVE Comorbidities have an impact on risk stratification for outcomes in analyses of large patient databases. Although the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI) are the most commonly used comorbidity indexes, these have not been validated for patients with unruptured cerebral aneurysms; therefore, the authors created a comorbidity index specific to these patients. METHODS The authors extracted all records involving unruptured cerebral aneurysms treated with clipping, coiling, or both from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2002-2010). They assessed the effect of 37 variables on poor outcome and used the results to create a risk score for these patients. The authors used a validation data set and bootstrapping to evaluate the new index and compared it to CCI and ECI in prediction of poor outcome, mortality, length of stay, and hospital charges. RESULTS The index assigns integer values (-2 to 7) to 20 comorbidities: neurological disorder, renal insufficiency, gastrointestinal bleeding, paralysis, acute myocardial infarction, electrolyte disorder, weight loss, metastatic cancer, drug abuse, arrhythmia, coagulopathy, cerebrovascular accident, psychosis, alcoholism, perivascular disease, valvular disease, tobacco use, hypothyroidism, depression, and hypercholesterolemia. Values are summed to determine a patient's risk score. The new index was better at predicting poor outcome than CCI or ECI (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.814 [95% CI 0.798-0.830], vs 0.694 and 0.712, respectively, for the other indices), and it was also better at predicting mortality (AUC 0.775 [95% CI 0.754-0.792], vs 0.635 and 0.657, respectively, for CCI and ECI). CONCLUSIONS This new comorbidity index outperforms the CCI and ECI in predicting poor outcome, mortality, length of stay, and total charges for patients with unruptured cerebral aneurysm. Reevaluation of other patient cohorts is warranted to determine the impact of

  5. The potential of myocardial perfusion scintigraphy for risk stratification of asymptomatic patients with type 2 diabetes.

    PubMed

    Bax, Jeroen J; Bonow, Robert O; Tschöpe, Diethelm; Inzucchi, Silvio E; Barrett, Eugene

    2006-08-15

    Patients with diabetes, in particular patients with type 2 diabetes, are at a 2- to 4-fold higher risk of cardiovascular mortality compared with their nondiabetic peers. Patients with diabetes are also more likely to have silent ischemia and less likely to survive a myocardial infarction than nondiabetic patients. Recent studies with electron beam computed tomography (EBCT) have shown that subclinical atherosclerosis is common in patients with diabetes, and studies with myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (with single-photon emission computed tomography) or stress echocardiography have demonstrated that between 25% and 50% of asymptomatic diabetic patients have ischemia during exercise or pharmacological stress and that a substantial proportion of these patients go on to develop major cardiovascular events within several years. Clearly, asymptomatic diabetic patients include a subset of individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease who would benefit from improved risk stratification beyond that possible with risk factor scoring systems alone. Single-photon emission computed tomography, stress echocardiography, and possibly EBCT or multi-slice computed tomography, are emerging as valuable diagnostic tools for identifying asymptomatic diabetic patients who might require early and aggressive intervention to manage their cardiovascular risk. PMID:16904545

  6. Pulmonary embolism: the diagnosis, risk-stratification, treatment and disposition of emergency department patients

    PubMed Central

    Corrigan, Daniel; Prucnal, Christiana; Kabrhel, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    The diagnosis or exclusion of pulmonary embolism (PE) remains challenging for emergency physicians. Symptoms can be vague or non-existent, and the clinical presentation shares features with many other common diagnoses. Diagnostic testing is complicated, as biomarkers, like the D-dimer, are frequently false positive, and imaging, like computed tomography pulmonary angiography, carries risks of radiation and contrast dye exposure. It is therefore incumbent on emergency physicians to be both vigilant and thoughtful about this diagnosis. In recent years, several advances in treatment have also emerged. Novel, direct-acting oral anticoagulants make the outpatient treatment of low risk PE easier than before. However, the spectrum of PE severity varies widely, so emergency physicians must be able to risk-stratify patients to ensure the appropriate disposition. Finally, PE response teams have been developed to facilitate rapid access to advanced therapies (e.g., catheter directed thrombolysis) for patients with high-risk PE. This review will discuss the clinical challenges of PE diagnosis, risk stratification and treatment that emergency physicians face every day. PMID:27752629

  7. Development of Inpatient Risk Stratification Models of Acute Kidney Injury for Use in Electronic Health Records

    PubMed Central

    Matheny, Michael E.; Miller, Randolph A.; Ikizler, T. Alp; Waitman, Lemuel R.; Denny, Joshua C.; Schildcrout, Jonathan S.; Dittus, Robert S.; Peterson, Josh F.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Patients with hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (AKI) are at risk for increased mortality and further medical complications. Evaluating these patients with a prediction tool easily implemented within an electronic health record (EHR) would identify high risk patients prior to the development of AKI, and could prevent iatrogenically induced episodes of AKI and improve clinical management. Methods We used structured clinical data acquired from an EHR to identify patients with normal kidney function for admissions from August 1st, 1999 to July 31st, 2003. Using administrative, computerized provider order entry, and laboratory test data, we developed a 3-level risk stratification model to predict each of two severity levels of in-hospital AKI as defined by RIFLE criteria. The severity levels were defined as 150% or 200% of baseline serum creatinine. Model discrimination and calibration was evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation. Results Cross-validation of the models resulted in area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curves of 0.75 (150% elevation) and 0.78 (200% elevation). Both models were adequately calibrated as measured by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test chi-squared values of 9.7 (p = 0.29) and 12.7 (p = 0.12), respectively. Conclusions We generated risk prediction models for hospital-acquired AKI using only commonly available electronic data. The models identify patients at high risk for AKI who might benefit from early intervention or increased monitoring. PMID:20354229

  8. Preoperative risk stratification models fail to predict hospital cost of cardiac surgery patients

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Preoperative risk stratification models have previously been suggested to predict cardiac surgery unit costs. However, there is a lack of consistency in their reliability in this field. In this study we aim to test the correlation between the values of six commonly known preoperative scoring systems and evaluate their reliability at predicting unit costs of cardiac surgery patients. Methods Over a period of 14 months all consecutive adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery on cardiopulmonary bypass were prospectively classified using six preoperative scoring models (EuroSCORE, Parsonnet, Ontario, French, Pons and CABDEAL). Transplantation patients were the only patients we excluded. Total hospital costs for each patient were calculated independently on a daily basis using the bottom up method. The full unit costs were calculated including preoperative diagnostic tests, operating room cost, disposable materials, drugs, blood components as well as costs for personnel and fixed hospital costs. The correlation between hospital cost and the six models was determined by linear regression analysis. Both Spearman’s and Pearson’s correlation coefficients were calculated from the regression lines. An analysis of residuals was performed to determine the quality of the regression. Results A total of 887 patients were operated on for CABG (n = 608), valve (n = 142), CABG plus valve (n = 100), thoracic aorta (n = 33) and ventricular assist devices (n = 4). Mean age of the patients was 68.3±9.9 years, 27.6% were female. 30-day mortality rate was 4.1%. Correlation between the six models and hospital cost was weak (Pearson’s: r < 0.30; Spearman’s: r < 0.40). Conclusion The risk stratification models in this study are not reliable at predicting total costs of cardiac surgical patients. We therefore do not recommend their use for this purpose. PMID:23659251

  9. Stratification of brachytherapy-treated intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients into favorable and unfavorable cohorts

    PubMed Central

    Butler, Wayne M.; Galbreath, Robert W.; Fiano, Ryan; Adamovich, Edward

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate biochemical failure (BF) and prostate cancer specific mortality (PCSM) in intermediate-risk (IR) brachytherapy patients stratified into favorable and unfavorable cohorts, and to compare those outcomes to patients with low (LR) and high-risk (HR) disease. Material and methods From March 1995 till February 2012, 2,502 consecutive patients underwent permanent interstitial brachytherapy for clinically localized prostate cancer. Patients were stratified into risk groups as per the NCCN guidelines with further stratification of the intermediate risk cohort into unfavorable (primary Gleason pattern 4, ≥ 50% positive biopsies or ≥ 2 IR features) and favorable cohorts. Median follow-up was 8.5 years. The brachytherapy prescription dose was prescribed to the prostate gland with generous periprostatic margins. Biochemical failure was defined as a PSA > 0.40 ng/ml after nadir. Patients with metastatic prostate cancer or non-metastatic castrate resistant disease who died of any cause were classified as dead of prostate cancer. Multiple parameters were evaluated for effect on outcomes. Results Fifteen year BF for LR, favorable IR, unfavorable IR, and HR were 1.4%, 2.2%, 7.1%, and 11.1% (p < 0.001), respectively. At 15 years, PCSM for LR, favorable IR, unfavorable IR, and HR was 0.3%, 0.6%, 2.2% and 4.6% (p < 0.001), respectively. In multivariate analysis, BF was best predicted by risk group, pre-implant PSA, percent positive biopsies, prostate volume, and ADT duration, while PCSM was most closely related to risk group, percent positive biopsies and prostate volume. Conclusions Patients with favorable IR disease have biochemical and PCSM outcomes comparable to those of patients with LR disease. Although unfavorable IR has greater than a 3-fold increased risk of BF and PCSM when compared to favorable IR, the outcomes remain superior to those men with HR disease. PMID:26816337

  10. The role of fluorescence in situ hybridization and gene expression profiling in myeloma risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Hose, Dirk; Seckinger, Anja; Jauch, Anna; Rème, Thierry; Moreaux, Jérôme; Bertsch, Uta; Neben, Kai; Klein, Bernard; Goldschmidt, Hartmut

    2011-12-01

    Multiple myeloma patients' survival under treatment varies from a few months to more than 15 years. Clinical prognostic factors, especially beta2-microglobulin (B2M) and the international staging system (ISS), allow risk assessment to a certain extent, but do not identify patients at very high risk. As malignant plasma cells are characterized by a variety of chromosomal aberrations and changes in gene expression, a molecular characterization ofCD138-purified myeloma cells by interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (iFISH) and gene expression profiling (GEP) can be used for improved risk assessment, iFISH allows a risk stratification with presence of a translocation t(4;14) and/or deletion of 17p13 being the best documented adverse prognostic factors. A deletion of 13q14 is no longer considered to define adverse risk. Patients harbouring a t(4;14) seems to benefit from a bortezomib- or lenalidomide containing regimen, whereas patients with deletion 17p13 seem only to benefit from a high dose therapy approach using long term bortezomib (in induction and maintenance) and autologous tandem-transplantation as used in the GMMG-HD4 trial, or the total therapy 3 concept. Gene expression profiling allows the assessment of high risk scores (IFM, UAMS), remaining prognostic despite treatment with novel agents, and prognostic surrogates of biological factors (e.g. proliferation) and (prognostic) target gene expression (e.g. Aurora-kinase A). Thus, assessment of B2M and ISS-stage, iFISH, and GEP is considered extended routine diagnostics in therapy requiring multiple myeloma patients for risk assessment and, even now, to a certain extent selection of treatment.

  11. Stress testing for risk stratification of patients with low to moderate probability of acute cardiac ischemia.

    PubMed

    Chandra, A; Rudraiah, L; Zalenski, R J

    2001-02-01

    In summary, this article focused on the use of stress testing to risk-stratify patients at the conclusion of their emergency evaluation for ACI. As discussed, those patients in the probably not ACI category require additional risk stratification prior to discharge. It should be kept in mind that patients in this category are heterogeneous, containing subgroups at both higher and lower risk of ACI and cardiac events. The patients with lower pretest probability for ACI may only need exercise testing in the ED. Patients with higher pretest probability should undergo myocardial perfusion or echocardiographic stress testing to maximize diagnostic and prognostic information. Prognostic information is the key to provocative testing in the ED. Prognostic information is the component that will help emergency physicians identify the patients who may be discharged home safely without having to worry about a 6% annual cardiac death rate and a 10% overall death rate over the next 30 months. Stress testing provides this key prognostic data, and it can be obtained in short-stay chest pain observation units in a safe, timely, and cost-effective fashion. PMID:11214405

  12. Heart rate variability and non-linear dynamics in risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Perkiömäki, Juha S

    2011-01-01

    The time-domain measures and power-spectral analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) are classic conventional methods to assess the complex regulatory system between autonomic nervous system and heart rate and are most widely used. There are abundant scientific data about the prognostic significance of the conventional measurements of HRV in patients with various conditions, particularly with myocardial infarction. Some studies have suggested that some newer measures describing non-linear dynamics of heart rate, such as fractal measures, may reveal prognostic information beyond that obtained by the conventional measures of HRV. An ideal risk indicator could specifically predict sudden arrhythmic death as the implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy can prevent such events. There are numerically more sudden deaths among post-infarction patients with better preserved left ventricular function than in those with severe left ventricular dysfunction. Recent data support the concept that HRV measurements, when analyzed several weeks after acute myocardial infarction, predict life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias in patients with moderately depressed left ventricular function. However, well-designed prospective randomized studies are needed to evaluate whether the ICD therapy based on the assessment of HRV alone or with other risk indicators improves the patients' prognosis. Several issues, such as the optimal target population, optimal timing of HRV measurements, optimal methods of HRV analysis, and optimal cutpoints for different HRV parameters, need clarification before the HRV analysis can be a widespread clinical tool in risk stratification. PMID:22084633

  13. Heart Rate Variability and Non-Linear Dynamics in Risk Stratification

    PubMed Central

    Perkiömäki, Juha S.

    2011-01-01

    The time-domain measures and power–spectral analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) are classic conventional methods to assess the complex regulatory system between autonomic nervous system and heart rate and are most widely used. There are abundant scientific data about the prognostic significance of the conventional measurements of HRV in patients with various conditions, particularly with myocardial infarction. Some studies have suggested that some newer measures describing non-linear dynamics of heart rate, such as fractal measures, may reveal prognostic information beyond that obtained by the conventional measures of HRV. An ideal risk indicator could specifically predict sudden arrhythmic death as the implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy can prevent such events. There are numerically more sudden deaths among post-infarction patients with better preserved left ventricular function than in those with severe left ventricular dysfunction. Recent data support the concept that HRV measurements, when analyzed several weeks after acute myocardial infarction, predict life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias in patients with moderately depressed left ventricular function. However, well-designed prospective randomized studies are needed to evaluate whether the ICD therapy based on the assessment of HRV alone or with other risk indicators improves the patients’ prognosis. Several issues, such as the optimal target population, optimal timing of HRV measurements, optimal methods of HRV analysis, and optimal cutpoints for different HRV parameters, need clarification before the HRV analysis can be a widespread clinical tool in risk stratification. PMID:22084633

  14. CK-MB isoforms for early risk stratification of emergency department patients.

    PubMed

    Green, G B; Dehlinger, E; McGrievey, T S; Li, D J; Jones, K A; Kelen, G D; Chan, D W

    2000-10-01

    The potential clinical utility of single sample CK-MB isoforms measurement for early risk stratification of Emergency Department (ED) patients with possible myocardial ischemia was evaluated among 405 patients presenting to two urban EDs. Clinical and serologic data were prospectively collected and the occurrence of adverse events (AEs) and myocardial infarction (MI) during the 14-day outcome period was recorded and utilized to calculate and compare relative risks (RR) and predictive values of isoforms and CK-MB alone. Among the 405 patients, 67 accrued 105 AEs. Both isoforms and CK-MB alone were predictive of AEs with RR of 3.32 (2.09, 5.27) and 6.28 (4.64, 8.52), respectively. Isoforms had higher sensitivity for AEs compared to CK-MB (65.7% [54.3, 77.0] vs. 14.9% [6.4, 23.5]; p<0. 01) but lower specificity (69.2% [64.3, 74.2] vs. 99.7% [99.1,100. 0]; p<0.01). Isoforms' superior sensitivity allowed identification of many high risk patients missed by CK-MB alone. Further, for the prediction of MI, isoforms had superior diagnostic sensitivity and equivalent specificity. This investigation supports the emergency department use of early, single sample CK-MB isoform testing. PMID:10958863

  15. Noninvasive risk stratification after myocardial infarction: rationale, current evidence and the need for definitive trials.

    PubMed

    Exner, Derek

    2009-06-01

    Despite advances in therapies for myocardial infarction (MI), death attributed to a cardiac arrest from ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF) remains an important problem. The implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is effective in preventing death from VT/VF, but reliably identifying which post-MI patients would benefit from an ICD remains a major challenge. Beyond the initial post-MI period, the presence of significant left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, alone or in combination with the induction of sustained VT/VF during invasive testing, is the only proven means of selecting patients for a prophylactic ICD. However, these approaches identify only a fraction of those at risk. Furthermore, most patients with significant LV dysfunction after MI have a low, near-term risk of VT/VF. Noninvasive risk stratification tools have been developed to better identify patients likely to benefit from an ICD. To date, none of these tools has been proven useful in this regard. The factors leading to a cardiac arrest are complex, and a single test is unlikely to reliably predict risk. Noninvasive assessment of cardiac structure, conduction and repolarization along with autonomic modulation appear to be useful in predicting the risk of a cardiac arrest after MI, particularly when assessed in combination. However, randomized trials assessing the efficacy of ICD therapy in patients identified as being at risk are required. Until such data are available, significant LV dysfunction alone and in combination with the induction of VT/VF during invasive testing in the nonacute post-MI period remain the only proven methods to guide prophylactic ICD therapy. PMID:19521570

  16. ECG Morphological Variability in Beat Space for Risk Stratification After Acute Coronary Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Yun; Syed, Zeeshan; Scirica, Benjamin M.; Morrow, David A.; Guttag, John V.; Stultz, Collin M.

    2014-01-01

    Background Identification of patients who are at high risk of adverse cardiovascular events after an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains a major challenge in clinical cardiology. We hypothesized that quantifying variability in electrocardiogram (ECG) morphology may improve risk stratification post‐ACS. Methods and Results We developed a new metric to quantify beat‐to‐beat morphologic changes in the ECG: morphologic variability in beat space (MVB), and compared our metric to published ECG metrics (heart rate variability [HRV], deceleration capacity [DC], T‐wave alternans, heart rate turbulence, and severe autonomic failure). We tested the ability of these metrics to identify patients at high risk of cardiovascular death (CVD) using 1082 patients (1‐year CVD rate, 4.5%) from the MERLIN‐TIMI 36 (Metabolic Efficiency with Ranolazine for Less Ischemia in Non‐ST‐Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome—Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 36) clinical trial. DC, HRV/low frequency–high frequency, and MVB were all associated with CVD (hazard ratios [HRs] from 2.1 to 2.3 [P<0.05 for all] after adjusting for the TIMI risk score [TRS], left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF], and B‐type natriuretic peptide [BNP]). In a cohort with low‐to‐moderate TRS (N=864; 1‐year CVD rate, 2.7%), only MVB was significantly associated with CVD (HR, 3.0; P=0.01, after adjusting for LVEF and BNP). Conclusions ECG morphological variability in beat space contains prognostic information complementary to the clinical variables, LVEF and BNP, in patients with low‐to‐moderate TRS. ECG metrics could help to risk stratify patients who might not otherwise be considered at high risk of CVD post‐ACS. PMID:24963105

  17. Noninvasive risk stratification after myocardial infarction: Rationale, current evidence and the need for definitive trials

    PubMed Central

    Exner, Derek V

    2009-01-01

    Despite advances in therapies for myocardial infarction (MI), death attributed to a cardiac arrest from ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF) remains an important problem. The implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is effective in preventing death from VT/VF, but reliably identifying which post-MI patients would benefit from an ICD remains a major challenge. Beyond the initial post-MI period, the presence of significant left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, alone or in combination with the induction of sustained VT/VF during invasive testing, is the only proven means of selecting patients for a prophylactic ICD. However, these approaches identify only a fraction of those at risk. Furthermore, most patients with significant LV dysfunction after MI have a low, near-term risk of VT/VF. Noninvasive risk stratification tools have been developed to better identify patients likely to benefit from an ICD. To date, none of these tools has been proven useful in this regard. The factors leading to a cardiac arrest are complex, and a single test is unlikely to reliably predict risk. Noninvasive assessment of cardiac structure, conduction and repolarization along with autonomic modulation appear to be useful in predicting the risk of a cardiac arrest after MI, particularly when assessed in combination. However, randomized trials assessing the efficacy of ICD therapy in patients identified as being at risk are required. Until such data are available, significant LV dysfunction alone and in combination with the induction of VT/VF during invasive testing in the nonacute post-MI period remain the only proven methods to guide prophylactic ICD therapy. PMID:19521570

  18. Noninvasive risk stratification after myocardial infarction: rationale, current evidence and the need for definitive trials.

    PubMed

    Exner, Derek

    2009-06-01

    Despite advances in therapies for myocardial infarction (MI), death attributed to a cardiac arrest from ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF) remains an important problem. The implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is effective in preventing death from VT/VF, but reliably identifying which post-MI patients would benefit from an ICD remains a major challenge. Beyond the initial post-MI period, the presence of significant left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, alone or in combination with the induction of sustained VT/VF during invasive testing, is the only proven means of selecting patients for a prophylactic ICD. However, these approaches identify only a fraction of those at risk. Furthermore, most patients with significant LV dysfunction after MI have a low, near-term risk of VT/VF. Noninvasive risk stratification tools have been developed to better identify patients likely to benefit from an ICD. To date, none of these tools has been proven useful in this regard. The factors leading to a cardiac arrest are complex, and a single test is unlikely to reliably predict risk. Noninvasive assessment of cardiac structure, conduction and repolarization along with autonomic modulation appear to be useful in predicting the risk of a cardiac arrest after MI, particularly when assessed in combination. However, randomized trials assessing the efficacy of ICD therapy in patients identified as being at risk are required. Until such data are available, significant LV dysfunction alone and in combination with the induction of VT/VF during invasive testing in the nonacute post-MI period remain the only proven methods to guide prophylactic ICD therapy.

  19. Derivation of genetic biomarkers for cancer risk stratification in Barrett's oesophagus: a prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Timmer, Margriet R.; Martinez, Pierre; Lau, Chiu T.; Westra, Wytske M.; Calpe, Silvia; Rygiel, Agnieszka M.; Rosmolen, Wilda D.; Meijer, Sybren L.; ten Kate, Fiebo J.W.; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G.W.; Mallant-Hent, Rosalie C.; Naber, Anton H.J.; van Oijen, Arnoud H.A.M.; Baak, Lubbertus C.; Scholten, Pieter; Böhmer, Clarisse J.M.; Fockens, Paul; Maley, Carlo C.; Graham, Trevor A.; Bergman, Jacques J.G.H.M.; Krishnadath, Kausilia K.

    2016-01-01

    Objective The risk of developing adenocarcinoma in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus is low and difficult to predict. Accurate tools for risk stratification are needed to increase the efficiency of surveillance. We aimed to develop a prediction model for progression using clinical variables and genetic markers. Methods In a prospective cohort of patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus, we evaluated six molecular markers: p16, p53, Her-2/neu, 20q, MYC, and aneusomy by DNA fluorescence in situ hybridisation on brush cytology specimens. Primary study outcomes were the development of high-grade dysplasia or oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The most predictive clinical variables and markers were determined using Cox proportional-hazards models, receiver-operating-characteristic curves and a leave-one-out analysis. Results A total of 428 patients participated (345 men; median age 60 years) with a cumulative follow-up of 2019 patient-years (median 45 months per patient). Of these patients, 22 progressed; nine developed high-grade dysplasia and 13 oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The clinical variables, age and circumferential Barrett's length, and the markers, p16 loss, MYC gain, and aneusomy, were significantly associated with progression on univariate analysis. We defined an ‘Abnormal Marker Count’ that counted abnormalities in p16, MYC and aneusomy, which significantly improved risk prediction beyond using just age and Barrett's length. In multivariate analysis, these three factors identified a high-risk group with an 8.7-fold (95% CI, 2.6 to 29.8) increased hazard ratio compared with the low-risk group, with an area under the curve of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.66 to 0.86). Conclusion A prediction model based on age, Barrett's length, and the markers p16, MYC, and aneusomy determines progression risk in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus. PMID:26104750

  20. Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Scar Imaging for Sudden Cardiac Death Risk Stratification in Patients with Non-Ischemic Cardiomyopathy

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Eun Kyoung; Chattranukulchai, Pairoj

    2015-01-01

    In patients with non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (NICM), risk stratification for sudden cardiac death (SCD) and selection of patients who would benefit from prophylactic implantable cardioverter-defibrillators remains challenging. We aim to discuss the evidence of cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR)-derived myocardial scar for the prediction of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in NICM. From the 15 studies analyzed, with a total of 2747 patients, the average prevalence of myocardial scar was 41%. In patients with myocardial scar, the risk for adverse cardiac events was more than 3-fold higher, and risk for arrhythmic events 5-fold higher, as compared to patients without scar. Based on the available observational, single center studies, CMR scar assessment may be a promising new tool for SCD risk stratification, which merits further investigation. PMID:26175568

  1. Arrhythmic risk stratification after myocardial infarction using ambulatory electrocardiography signal averaging.

    PubMed

    Roche, Frédéric; DaCosta, Antoine; Karnib, Ibrahim; Triomphe, Géraldine; Roche, Christian; Isaaz, Karl; Geyssant, André; Barthélémy, Jean-Claude

    2002-05-01

    Ambulatory ECG had been proposed to examine the amplified high resolution signal-averaged electrocardiogram (SAECG). Clinical investigations are required to confirm the predictive value of such a high resolution technique in arrhythmic risk stratification. The prognostic value of ambulatory Holter SAECG was evaluated in 108 postinfarction patients for the purpose of predicting the occurrence of serious arrhythmic (SARR) events (sudden cardiac death [SCD], VT, or VF) in comparison with classical real-time SAECG. During the 42+/-8 months of follow-up, the sudden cardiac death mortality was 4.6% (five deaths), six (5.6%) patients had VT, and one (0.9%) VF. QRSd was found to be the most predictive parameter using ROC curves analysis for SAAR + outcome (W = 0.833 and W = 0.803 for 25-250 Hz and 40-250 Hz filters, respectively) followed by RMS (W = 0.766 and W = 0.721) and LAS (W = 0.759, W = 0.709) (all P < 0.01). Abnormal Holter SAECG for 25 and 40-Hz LP filter were significant predictors of SARR+ by log-rank test (P < 0.01, P < 0.05, respectively). This study confirms that valuable prognostic information can be obtained from the ambulatory high resolution ECG technique and that Holter SAECG may predict arrhythmic risk in a postinfarction population. PMID:12049370

  2. Post-Myocardial Infarction Arrhythmia Risk Stratification Using Microvolt T-Wave Alternans

    PubMed Central

    Donoiu, I.; Mirea, Oana Cristina; Giuca, Alina; Militaru, C.; Ionescu, D.D.

    2012-01-01

    Since its initial description, a number of studies have described the use of microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA) as a predictor of the primary or secondary occurrence of ventricular arrhythmic events. These studies, however, have been limited by small sample sizes and disparate patient populations. Studies of MTWA in post-myocardial infarction (MI) patients are few in number, but hold predictive value for risk of ventricular arrhythmias. We performed a study of MTWA in post-myocardial infarction patients to clarify the predictive accuracy and usefulness of MTWA compared to other invasive and non-invasive techniques. We enrolled 120 patients (74 men, 46 women, mean age 62.3 ± 15.2 years in men, and 64.2 ± 13.8 years in women) with a history of myocardial infarction but no prior sustained ventricular arrhythmias. Patients were assessed by echocardiography, Holter, signal averaged ECG, MTWA, and electrophysiology study. Mean follow-up was 14 months. The MTWA test had a good negative predictive value for arrhythmic events in post-MI patients and can be used for risk stratification. We consider that in patients with positive MTWA further invasive evaluation, respectively electrophysiology study, is necessary. PMID:24778843

  3. Renal disease in scleroderma: an update on evaluation, risk stratification, pathogenesis and management

    PubMed Central

    Shanmugam, Victoria K.; Steen, Virginia D.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose of review Renal disease remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality in scleroderma. The spectrum of renal complications in systemic sclerosis includes scleroderma renal crisis (SRC), normotensive renal crisis, antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies-associated glomerulonephritis, penacillamine-associated renal disease, and reduced renal functional reserves manifested by proteinuria, microalbuminuria, or isolated reduction in glomerular filtration rate. The purpose of this review is to provide a concise and up-to-date review of the evaluation, risk stratification, pathogenesis, and management of scleroderma-associated renal disease. Recent findings Although SRC survival has significantly improved, mortality of this complication remains high outside of specialized centers. Recent data demonstrate strong associations between anti-RNA polymerase III antibodies and SRC. Subclinical renal impairment affects approximately 50% of scleroderma patients and may be associated with other vascular manifestations. Subclinical renal involvement rarely progresses to end-stage renal failure; however, recent studies suggest it may predict mortality in patients with other vasculopathic manifestations. Summary Testing for anti-RNA polymerase III antibodies should be incorporated into clinical care to identify patients at high risk for SRC. Recommendations from European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR), EULAR Scleroderma Trials and Research, and the Scleroderma Clinical Trials Consortium confirm angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors as first-line therapy for SRC, and give recommendations for second-line agents. PMID:22955019

  4. ME 04-2 AORTIC PWV FOR RISK STRATIFICATION IN HYPERTENSION.

    PubMed

    Park, Jeong Bae

    2016-09-01

    High pressure of the blood in artery is a common condition and it is closely related to cardiovascular (CV) diseases in future. Blood pressure itself is the most important criteria for hypertension prognosis but attempts are being made to detect hypertensive vascular changes early. Healthy arteries are flexible, strong and elastic but if the condition of high blood pressure persists, arteries turn narrow, thick and stiff, become a condition of arteriosclerosis. And so now, pulse wave velocity (PWV) which measures arteriosclerosis became one of the clinically significant method that evaluates CV risks among patients in hypertension (yes, it is also very important for general population), detects biological changes in blood vessels caused by hypertension, and it is known as a guide for hypertension management.Other than hypertension, the importance of PWV on various pathological status such as diabetes and renal diseases has been known and it is widely used in clinical settings. There is a method which measures PWV between two blood vessels, regional PWV and arterial structure in one particular blood vessel site, local PWV. Controversies still exist over its accuracy but most of them were resolved and so now, it was introduced as a standard technique by American Heart Association (AHA), European Society of Hypertension and others. Once the problem of pricing is resolved, it can be broadly used as inexpensive technique in clinical settings. I will further discuss which PWV techniques to use and how to interpret aortic PWV data in CV risk stratification of hypertension in clinical settings. PMID:27643282

  5. Genomics-based Approach and Prognostic Stratification Significance of Gene Mutations in Intermediate-risk Acute Myeloid Leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Bian-Hong; Li, Yong-Hui; Yu, Li

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Intermediate-risk acute myeloid leukemia (IR-AML), which accounts for a substantial number of AML cases, is highly heterogeneous. We systematically summarize the latest research progress on the significance of gene mutations for prognostic stratification of IR-AML. Data Sources: We conducted a systemic search from the PubMed database up to October, 2014 using various search terms and their combinations including IR-AML, gene mutations, mutational analysis, prognosis, risk stratification, next generation sequencing (NGS). Study Selection: Clinical or basic research articles on NGS and the prognosis of gene mutations in IR-AML were included. Results: The advent of the era of whole-genome sequencing has led to the discovery of an increasing number of molecular genetics aberrations that involved in leukemogenesis, and some of them have been used for prognostic risk stratification. Several studies have consistently identified that some gene mutations have prognostic relevance, however, there are still many controversies for some genes because of lacking sufficient evidence. In addition, tumor cells harbor hundreds of mutated genes and multiple mutations often coexist, therefore, single mutational analysis is not sufficient to make accurate prognostic predictions. The comprehensive analysis of multiple mutations based on sophisticated genomic technologies has raised increasing interest in recent years. Conclusions: NGS represents a pioneering and helpful approach to prognostic risk stratification of IR-AML patients. Further large-scale studies for comprehensive molecular analysis are needed to provide guidance and a theoretical basis for IR-AML prognostic stratification and clinical management. PMID:26315090

  6. Emergency department management of syncope: need for standardization and improved risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Thiruganasambandamoorthy, Venkatesh; Taljaard, Monica; Stiell, Ian G; Sivilotti, Marco L A; Murray, Heather; Vaidyanathan, Aparna; Rowe, Brian H; Calder, Lisa A; Lang, Eddy; McRae, Andrew; Sheldon, Robert; Wells, George A

    2015-08-01

    Variations in emergency department (ED) syncope management have not been well studied. The goals of this study were to assess variations in management, and emergency physicians' risk perception and disposition decision making. We conducted a prospective study of adults with syncope in six EDs in four cities over 32 months. We collected patient characteristics, ED management, disposition, physicians' prediction probabilities at index presentation and followed patients for 30 days for serious outcomes: death, myocardial infarction (MI), arrhythmia, structural heart disease, pulmonary embolism, significant hemorrhage, or procedural interventions. We used descriptive statistics, ROC curves, and regression analyses. We enrolled 3662 patients: mean age 54.3 years, and 12.9 % were hospitalized. Follow-up data were available for 3365 patients (91.9 %) and 345 patients (10.3 %) suffered serious outcomes: 120 (3.6 %) after ED disposition including 48 patients outside the hospital. After accounting for differences in patient case mix, the rates of ED investigations and disposition were significantly different (p < 0.0001) across the four study cities; as were the rates of 30-day serious outcomes (p < 0.0001) and serious outcomes after ED disposition (p = 0.0227). There was poor agreement between physician risk perception and both observed event rates and referral patterns (p < 0.0001). Only 76.7 % (95 % CI 68.1-83.6) of patients with serious outcomes were appropriately referred. There are large and unexplained differences in ED syncope management. Moreover, there is poor agreement between physician risk perception, disposition decision making, and serious outcomes after ED disposition. A valid risk-stratification tool might help standardize ED management and improve disposition decision making.

  7. Risk stratification of patients with hypertension using exercise thallium-201 scintigraphy

    SciTech Connect

    Iskandrian, A.S.; Hakki, A.H.; Kane, S.

    1985-05-01

    Hypertension (HT) is an important risk factor in coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiac morbidity and mortality. This study examined the value of clinical, ECG, exercise (EX) and thallium-201 imaging descriptors that identify patients (pts) with HT at high risk. The 337 pts in the study underwent EX thallium-201 testing for evaluation of chest pain due to suspected or proven CHD. The mean age was 55 years, of whom 79% were still on active anti-HT therapy at the time of the study. The EX thallium scintigrams were evaluated qualitatively and quantitively using circumferential profile analysis. The scans were abnormal in 162 pts (48%) and reversible perfusion defects were present in 106 of the 162 pts (65%). At a folllowup fo up to 74 months, (15 +- 9 mean +- SD), 11 pts had hard cardiac events: 2 died of cardiac causes and 9 had non-fatal acute myocardial infractions. There were no significant differences between those with and without events in age, EX heart rate and double product, EX duration, blood pressure and EX ECG changes. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis (Cox regression model) of important clinical, ECG, EX and thallium variables, identified the presence of abnormal EX images as the only predictor of outcome. (X/sup 2/ = 5.4, p< 0.02). No other variable provided additional prognostic information. Actuarial life table analysis showed that pts with abnormal images had significantly more events than those with normal images (p = 0.008, Mantel-Cox). Thus, EX thallium imaging is useful in risk stratification in pts with HT. The presence of abnormal images identify a subgroup at high risk for future events.

  8. Risk stratification tools for predicting morbidity and mortality in adult patients undergoing major surgery: qualitative systematic review.

    PubMed

    Moonesinghe, Suneetha Ramani; Mythen, Michael G; Das, Priya; Rowan, Kathryn M; Grocott, Michael P W

    2013-10-01

    Risk stratification is essential for both clinical risk prediction and comparative audit. There are a variety of risk stratification tools available for use in major noncardiac surgery, but their discrimination and calibration have not previously been systematically reviewed in heterogeneous patient cohorts.Embase, MEDLINE, and Web of Science were searched for studies published between January 1, 1980 and August 6, 2011 in adult patients undergoing major noncardiac, nonneurological surgery. Twenty-seven studies evaluating 34 risk stratification tools were identified which met inclusion criteria. The Portsmouth-Physiology and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and the Surgical Risk Scale were demonstrated to be the most consistently accurate tools that have been validated in multiple studies; however, both have limitations. Future work should focus on further evaluation of these and other parsimonious risk predictors, including validation in international cohorts. There is also a need for studies examining the impact that the use of these tools has on clinical decision making and patient outcome.

  9. Recurrent abnormalities can be used for risk group stratification in pediatric AMKL: a retrospective intergroup study.

    PubMed

    de Rooij, Jasmijn D E; Masetti, Riccardo; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M; Cayuela, Jean-Michel; Trka, Jan; Reinhardt, Dirk; Rasche, Mareike; Sonneveld, Edwin; Alonzo, Todd A; Fornerod, Maarten; Zimmermann, Martin; Pigazzi, Martina; Pieters, Rob; Meshinchi, Soheil; Zwaan, C Michel; Locatelli, Franco

    2016-06-30

    Genetic abnormalities and early treatment response are the main prognostic factors in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Acute megakaryoblastic leukemia (AMKL) is a rare subtype of AML. Deep sequencing has identified CBFA2T3/GLIS2 and NUP98/KDM5A as recurrent aberrations, occurring in similar frequencies as RBM15/MKL1 and KMT2A-rearrangements. We studied whether these cytogenetic aberrations can be used for risk group stratification. To assess frequencies and outcome parameters of recurrent cytogenetic aberrations in AMKL, samples and clinical data of patients treated by the Associazione Italiana Ematologia Oncologia Pediatrica, Berlin-Frankfurt-Munster Study Group, Children's Oncology Group, Dutch Childhood Oncology Group, and the Saint Louis Hôpital were collected, enabling us to screen 153 newly diagnosed pediatric AMKL cases for the aforementioned aberrations and to study their clinical characteristics and outcome. CBFA2T3/GLIS2 was identified in 16% of the cases; RBM15/MKL1, in 12%; NUP98/KDM5A and KMT2A rearrangements, in 9% each; and monosomy 7, in 6%. These aberrations were mutually exclusive. RBM15/MKL1-rearranged patients were significantly younger. No significant differences in sex and white blood cell count were found. NUP98/KDM5A, CBFA2T3/GLIS2, KMT2A-rearranged lesions and monosomy 7 (NCK-7) independently predicted a poor outcome, compared with RBM15/MKL1-rearranged patients and those with AMKL not carrying these molecular lesions. NCK-7-patients (n = 61) showed a 4-year probability of overall survival of 35 ± 6% vs 70 ± 5% in the RBM15/MKL1-other groups (n = 92, P < .0001) and 4-year probability of event-free survival of 33 ± 6% vs 62 ± 5% (P = .0013), the 4-year cumulative incidence of relapse being 42 ± 7% and 19 ± 4% (P = .003), respectively. We conclude that these genetic aberrations may be used for risk group stratification of pediatric AMKL and for treatment tailoring.

  10. Chronic heart failure in the elderly: value of cardiopulmonary exercise testing in risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Davies, L; Francis, D; Piepoli, M; Scott, A; Ponikowski, P; Coats, A

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To assess the value of cardiopulmonary exercise testing in predicting prognosis in a cohort of elderly patients with chronic heart failure (CHF).
DESIGN—A retrospective cohort study of all patients with CHF over the age of 70 years assessed between January 1992 and May 1997.
SETTING—Tertiary centre.
PATIENTS—50 patients (mean (SD) age 75.9 (4.5) years, 8 women) with CHF New York Heart Association (NYHA) class I (3 patients), II (25 patients), III (20 patients), and IV (2 patients). Follow up was complete for two years in all patients.
RESULTS—The patients underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing (peak oxygen consumption 15.2 (4.5) ml/kg/min, minute ventilation/carbon dioxide production (VE/VCO2) slope 38.7 (11.8)); radionucleide ventriculography (left ventricular ejection fraction 32.8 (14.3)%); serum sodium measurement (139 (2.8) mmol/l); and echocardiography (left ventricular end diastolic dimension 6.1 (1.1) cm, left ventricular end systolic dimension 4.7 (1.5) cm). At the end of follow up in May 1999, 26 patients had died. The median follow up of the survivors was 47.7 months (interquartile range 31.5-53.5 months). On univariate analysis VE/VCO2 slope (p < 0.0001), NYHA class (p < 0.001), peak oxygen uptake (VO2) (p < 0.01), left ventricular end systolic dimension (p < 0.05), and serum sodium concentration (p < 0.05) had significant predictive power. Stepwise multivariate analysis identified only VE/VCO2 slope (p < 0.01), NYHA class (p < 0.05), and peak VO2 (p< 0.05) as conveying significant independent prognostic information.
CONCLUSION—Elderly patients with CHF have a high mortality, with the majority dead within two years. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing provides important information for risk stratification within this group and its use should not be neglected.


Keywords: cardiopulmonary exercise testing; chronic heart failure; elderly patients; risk factor stratification PMID

  11. Hospitalized patients with acute decompensated heart failure: recognition, risk stratification, and treatment review.

    PubMed

    Amin, Alpesh

    2008-11-01

    Acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) has emerged as a major healthcare problem. It causes approximately 3% of all hospitalizations in the United States, with the direct medical cost of these hospitalizations estimated at $18.8 billion per year. Early recognition, risk stratification, and evidence-based treatment are crucial in reducing the morbidity, mortality, and costs associated with this disorder. Classic signs and symptoms of ADHF, such as rales, dyspnea, and peripheral edema, may be absent at hospital presentation and, even when present, are not specific to this disorder. As a result, serum B-type natriuretic peptide level is now used to rapidly and accurately detect ADHF. Multivariate analyses have identified renal dysfunction, hypotension, advanced age, hyponatremia, and comorbidities as significant and independent mortality risk factors. Based on these factors, mortality risk can be stratified from very low to very high using published algorithms that have been validated in independent populations. Evidence-based guidelines for the treatment of ADHF are available from both the European Society of Cardiology and the Heart Failure Society of America. In general, an intravenous loop diuretic, either alone or in combination with a vasodilator, is recommended as initial therapy in patients with volume overload, depending on the patient's clinical status. Use of inotropic agents should be limited to the small subset of patients with low-output syndrome and significant hypotension. In any event, frequent monitoring of clinical response is essential, with subsequent therapy determined by this response. Finally, focused patient education during hospitalization may help reduce readmissions for ADHF.

  12. Iodine-123-metaiodobenzylguanidine scintigraphy in risk stratification of sudden death in heart failure.

    PubMed

    Martins da Silva, Marta Inês; Vidigal Ferreira, Maria João; Morão Moreira, Ana Paula

    2013-06-01

    Metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) is a false neurotransmitter noradrenaline analogue that is taken up by the 'uptake 1' transporter mechanism in the cell membrane of presynaptic adrenergic neurons and accumulates in catecholamine storage vesicles. Since it is practically unmetabolized, it can be labeled with a radioisotope (iodine-123) in scintigraphic exams to noninvasively assess the functional status of the sympathetic innervation of organs with a significant adrenergic component, including the heart. Studies of its application in nuclear cardiology appear to confirm its value in the assessment of conditions such as coronary artery disease, heart failure, arrhythmias and sudden death. Heart failure is a global problem, with an estimated prevalence of 2% in developed countries. Sudden cardiac death is the main cause of its high mortality. The autonomic nervous system dysfunction, including sympathetic hyperactivity, that accompanies chronic heart failure is associated with progressive myocardial remodeling, declining left ventricular function and worsening symptoms, and contributes to the development of ventricular arrhythmias and sudden death. Since 123I-MIBG cardiac scintigraphy can detect changes in the cardiac adrenergic system, there is considerable interest in its role in obtaining diagnostic and prognostic information in patients with heart failure. In this article we present a literature review on the use of 123I-MIBG scintigraphy for risk stratification of sudden death in patients with heart failure.

  13. Genetic stratification in myeloid diseases: from risk assessment to clinical decision support tool.

    PubMed

    Ofran, Yishai

    2014-10-01

    Genetic aberrations have become a dominant factor in the stratification of myeloid malignancies. Cytogenetic and a few mutation studies are the backbone of risk assessment models of myeloid malignancies which are a major consideration in clinical decisions, especially patient assignment for allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Progress in our understanding of the genetic basis of the pathogenesis of myeloid malignancies and the growing capabilities of mass sequencing may add new roles for the clinical usage of genetic data. A few recently identified mutations recognized to be associated with specific diseases or clinical scenarios may soon become part of the diagnostic criteria of such conditions. Mutational studies may also advance our capabilities for a more efficient patient selection process, assigning the most effective therapy at the best timing for each patient. The clinical utility of genetic data is anticipated to advance further with the adoption of deep sequencing and next-generation sequencing techniques. We herein suggest some future potential applications of sequential genetic data to identify pending deteriorations at time points which are the best for aggressive interventions such as allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Genetics is moving from being mostly a prognostic factor to becoming a multitasking decision support tool for hematologists. Physicians must pay attention to advances in molecular hematology as it will soon be accessible and influential for most of our patients.

  14. Plasma copeptin for short term risk stratification in acute pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Wyzgał, Anna; Koć, Marcin; Pacho, Szymon; Bielecki, Maksymilian; Wawrzyniak, Radosław; Kostrubiec, Maciej; Ciurzyński, Michał; Kurnicka, Katarzyna; Goliszek, Sylwia; Paczyńska, Marzena; Palczewski, Piotr; Pruszczyk, Piotr

    2016-05-01

    Copeptin (COP) was reported to have prognostic value in various cardiovascular diseases. We hypothesized that COP levels reflect the severity of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and may be useful in prognostic assessment. Plasma COP concentrations were measured on the Kryptor Compact Plus platform (BRAHMS, Hennigsdorf, Germany). The study included 107 consecutive patients with diagnosed acute PE (47 males, 60 females), with median age of 65 years (range 20-88). High risk PE was diagnosed in 3 patients (2.8 %), intermediate risk in 69 (64.5 %), and low risk PE in 35 (32.7 %) patients. Control group included 64 subjects (25 males, 39 females; median age 52.5 year, range 17-87). Four patients (3.7 %) died during 30-day observation. Complicated clinical course (CCC) was experienced by 10 (9.3 %) patients. COP level was higher in PE patients than in controls [11.55 pmol/L (5.16-87.97), and 19.00 pmol/L (5.51-351.90), respectively, p < 0.0001], and reflected PE severity. COP plasma concentration in low risk PE was 14.67 nmol/L (5.51-59.61) and in intermediate/high risk PE 19.84 mol/L (5.64-351.90) p < 0.05. Median COP levels in nonsurvivors was higher than in survivors, 84.6 (28.48-351.9) pmol/L and 18.68 (5.512-210.1) pmol/L, respectively, p = 0.009. Subjects with CCC presented higher COP levels than patients with benign clinical course 53.1 (17.95-351.9) pmol/L and 18.16 (5.51-210.1) pmol/L, respectively, p = 0.001. Log-transformed plasma COP was the significant predictor of CCC, OR 16.5 95 % CI 23.2-111.9, p < 0.001. AUC-for prediction of CCC using plasma COP was 0.811 (95 % CI 0.676-0.927). The COP cut off value of 17.95 nmol/l had sensitivity of 100 %, specificity 49.5 %, positive predictive value of 16.9 % and negative predictive value of 100 %. We conclude that plasma COP levels can be regarded for promising marker of severity of acute PE and show potential in risk stratification of these patients. PMID:26438275

  15. Inherited thrombophilia and stratification of ischaemic stroke risk among users of oral contraceptives

    PubMed Central

    Pezzini, A; Grassi, M; Iacoviello, L; Del Zotto, E; Archetti, S; Giossi, A; Padovani, A

    2007-01-01

    Background Whether use of oral contraceptives is a risk factor for arterial ischaemic stroke is controversial. In particular, few data are available on what criteria should be adopted to establish an individual profile of risk before the start of oral contraceptives. Patients and methods The effects of oral contraceptives and their interaction with the G1691A polymorphisms of the factor V gene, the G20210A polymorphisms of the prothrombin gene and the C677T polymorphisms of the MTHFR gene on the risk of cerebral ischaemia were determined in a series of 108 consecutive women aged <45 years with ischaemic stroke and 216 controls, in a hospital‐based case–control study design. Results Use of oral contraceptives was associated with an increased risk of cerebral ischaemia (odds ratio (OR) 3.95; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.29 to 6.78). ORs for stroke were 2.25 (95% CI 1.15 to 4.40), 3.94 (95% CI 2.28 to 6.81) and 8.87 (95% CI 3.72 to 21.1) for non‐oral contraceptive users with the TT MTHFR genotype, oral contraceptive users without the TT MTHFR genotype and oral contraceptive users with the TT MTHFR genotype, respectively, when compared with non‐oral contraceptive users without the TT MTHFR genotype, with a multiplicative independent effect. Compared with non‐oral contraceptive users, ORs for stroke were 2.65 (95% CI 1.46 to 4.81) for oral contraceptive users with none of the studied polymorphisms and 22.8 (95% CI 4.46 to 116.00) for oral contraceptive users with at least one of the studied polymorphisms, with a synergistic effect. Conclusions Exposure to the effects of oral contraceptives may increase the risk of ischaemic stroke in women with an inherited prothrombotic background. Testing for these genetic variants may allow more accurate stratification of the population at risk before long‐term use of oral contraceptives is prescribed. PMID:17098841

  16. Plasma copeptin for short term risk stratification in acute pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Wyzgał, Anna; Koć, Marcin; Pacho, Szymon; Bielecki, Maksymilian; Wawrzyniak, Radosław; Kostrubiec, Maciej; Ciurzyński, Michał; Kurnicka, Katarzyna; Goliszek, Sylwia; Paczyńska, Marzena; Palczewski, Piotr; Pruszczyk, Piotr

    2016-05-01

    Copeptin (COP) was reported to have prognostic value in various cardiovascular diseases. We hypothesized that COP levels reflect the severity of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and may be useful in prognostic assessment. Plasma COP concentrations were measured on the Kryptor Compact Plus platform (BRAHMS, Hennigsdorf, Germany). The study included 107 consecutive patients with diagnosed acute PE (47 males, 60 females), with median age of 65 years (range 20-88). High risk PE was diagnosed in 3 patients (2.8 %), intermediate risk in 69 (64.5 %), and low risk PE in 35 (32.7 %) patients. Control group included 64 subjects (25 males, 39 females; median age 52.5 year, range 17-87). Four patients (3.7 %) died during 30-day observation. Complicated clinical course (CCC) was experienced by 10 (9.3 %) patients. COP level was higher in PE patients than in controls [11.55 pmol/L (5.16-87.97), and 19.00 pmol/L (5.51-351.90), respectively, p < 0.0001], and reflected PE severity. COP plasma concentration in low risk PE was 14.67 nmol/L (5.51-59.61) and in intermediate/high risk PE 19.84 mol/L (5.64-351.90) p < 0.05. Median COP levels in nonsurvivors was higher than in survivors, 84.6 (28.48-351.9) pmol/L and 18.68 (5.512-210.1) pmol/L, respectively, p = 0.009. Subjects with CCC presented higher COP levels than patients with benign clinical course 53.1 (17.95-351.9) pmol/L and 18.16 (5.51-210.1) pmol/L, respectively, p = 0.001. Log-transformed plasma COP was the significant predictor of CCC, OR 16.5 95 % CI 23.2-111.9, p < 0.001. AUC-for prediction of CCC using plasma COP was 0.811 (95 % CI 0.676-0.927). The COP cut off value of 17.95 nmol/l had sensitivity of 100 %, specificity 49.5 %, positive predictive value of 16.9 % and negative predictive value of 100 %. We conclude that plasma COP levels can be regarded for promising marker of severity of acute PE and show potential in risk stratification of these patients.

  17. Analysis of agreement between cardiac risk stratification protocols applied to participants of a center for cardiac rehabilitation

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Ana A. S.; Silva, Anne K. F.; Vanderlei, Franciele M.; Christofaro, Diego G. D.; Gonçalves, Aline F. L.; Vanderlei, Luiz C. M.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background Cardiac risk stratification is related to the risk of the occurrence of events induced by exercise. Despite the existence of several protocols to calculate risk stratification, studies indicating that there is similarity between these protocols are still unknown. Objective To evaluate the agreement between the existing protocols on cardiac risk rating in cardiac patients. Method The records of 50 patients from a cardiac rehabilitation program were analyzed, from which the following information was extracted: age, sex, weight, height, clinical diagnosis, medical history, risk factors, associated diseases, and the results from the most recent laboratory and complementary tests performed. This information was used for risk stratification of the patients in the protocols of the American College of Sports Medicine, the Brazilian Society of Cardiology, the American Heart Association, the protocol designed by Frederic J. Pashkow, the American Association of Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Rehabilitation, the Société Française de Cardiologie, and the Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the sample and the analysis of agreement between the protocols was calculated using the Kappa coefficient. Differences were considered with a significance level of 5%. Results Of the 21 analyses of agreement, 12 were considered significant between the protocols used for risk classification, with nine classified as moderate and three as low. No agreements were classified as excellent. Different proportions were observed in each risk category, with significant differences between the protocols for all risk categories. Conclusion The agreements between the protocols were considered low and moderate and the risk proportions differed between protocols. PMID:27556385

  18. Refining Risk Stratification for Locoregional Failure after Chemoradiotherapy in Human Papillomavirus-Associated Oropharyngeal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Vainshtein, Jeffrey M.; Spector, Matthew E.; McHugh, Jonathan B.; Wong, Ka Kit; Walline, Heather M.; Byrd, Serena A.; Komarck, Christine M.; Ibrahim, Mohannad; Stenmark, Matthew H.; Prince, Mark E.; Bradford, Carol R.; Wolf, Gregory T.; McLean, Scott; Worden, Francis P.; Chepeha, Douglas B.; Carey, Thomas; Eisbruch, Avraham

    2014-01-01

    Background To determine whether the addition of molecular and imaging biomarkers to established clinical risk factors could help predict locoregional failure (LRF) after chemoradiation in human papillomavirus (HPV)-related(+) oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) and improve patient selection for locoregional treatment de-intensification. Methods HPV status was determined for 198 consecutive patients with Stage III/IV OPC treated with definitive chemoradiation from 5/2003–10/2010. The impact of pre-therapy epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) overexpression; imaging biomarkers including primary tumor and nodal maximum standardized uptake values on FDG-PET, gross tumor volumes, and matted nodes; and clinical factors on LRF (including residual disease at adjuvant neck dissection) was assessed. Results Primary tumors were HPV+ in 184 patients and HPV-negative in 14. EGFR overexpression was related to HPV-negative status and was univariately associated with LRF in the overall population, but was neither retained in the multivariate model after adjustment for HPV status, nor associated with LRF in HPV+ patients. Similarly, imaging biomarkers were univariately associated with LRF, but correlated with T-stage and/or N-stage and did not remain predictive in HPV+ patients after adjustment for T4- and N3-stages, which were the only significant predictors of LRF on multivariate analysis. Among HPV+ patients with non-T4- or N3-stages, only minimal smoking was associated with decreased LRF. Conclusion(s) The prognostic impact of EGFR overexpression and imaging biomarkers on LRF was predominantly related to their association with HPV-negative status and T- or N-stage, respectively. . Among HPV+ OPC patients treated with uniform chemoradiation, only T4-stage, N3-stage, and smoking contributed to risk-stratification for LRF. PMID:24565983

  19. Clinical impact and risk stratification of balloon angioplasty for femoropopliteal disease in nitinol stenting era: Retrospective multicenter study using propensity score matching analysis

    PubMed Central

    Tsuchiya, Taketsugu; Takamura, Takaaki; Soga, Yoshimitsu; Iida, Osamu; Hirano, Keisuke; Suzuki, Kenji; Yamaoka, Terutoshi; Miyashita, Yusuke; Kitayama, Michihiko; Kajinami, Koji

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Nitinol stenting could bring the better outcome in endovascular therapy for femoropopliteal disease. However, it might be expected that recent marked advances in both device technology and operator technique had led to improved efficacy of balloon angioplasty even in this segment. The aims of this study were to evaluate the clinical impact of balloon angioplasty for femoropopliteal disease and make risk stratification clear by propensity score matching analysis. Methods: Based on the multicenter retrospective data, 2758 patients (balloon angioplasty: 729 patients and nitinol stenting: 2029 patients), those who underwent endovascular therapy for femoropopliteal disease, were analyzed. Results: The propensity score matching procedure extracted a total of 572 cases per group, and the primary patency rate of balloon angioplasty and nitinol stenting groups after matching was significantly the same (77.2% vs 82.7% at 1 year; 62.2% vs 64.3% at 3 years; 47.8% vs 54.3% at 5 years). In multivariate Cox hazard regression analysis, significant predictors for primary patency were diabetes mellitus, regular dialysis, cilostazol use, chronic total occlusion, and intra-vascular ultra-sonography use. The strategy of balloon angioplasty was not evaluated as a significant predictor for the primary patency. After risk stratification using five items (diabetes mellitus, regular dialysis, no use of intra-vascular ultra-sonography, chronic total occlusion, and no use of cilostazol: the DDICC score), the estimated primary patency rates of each group (low, DDICC score 0–2; moderate, DDICC score 3; high risk, DDICC score 4–5) were 88.6%, 78.3%, and 63.5% at 1 year; 75.2%, 60.7%, and 39.8% at 3 years; and 66.0%, 47.1%, and 26.3% at 5 years (p < 0.0001). The primary patency rate of balloon angioplasty and nitinol stenting groups was significantly the same in each risk stratification. Conclusion: This study suggests that balloon angioplasty does not have

  20. Update on pharmacological cardiac stress testing: efficacy, risk stratification and patient selection.

    PubMed

    Blankstein, Ron; Cannon, Christopher; Udelson, James

    2014-11-01

    Despite greater control of risk factors and improved treatments, coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a significant cause of mortality with 1 in every 4 deaths in the United States due to this disorder.(1) Cardiac stress tests have long been one of the most often utilized testing modalities used to identify patients suspected of having CHD, specifically coronary artery disease (CAD). These tests allow for noninvasive assessment of the coronary circulation and its ability to augment flow in response to physiologic demand. As with any diagnostic testing however, potential health risks as well as the financial burden of cardiovascular stress testing, must be weighed against the benefits and utility of the data procured. Given the rapidly evolving field of cardiac stress testing with respect to new risk stratification guidelines, new agents, and new assessment methods, it is difficult for physicians to remain up to date on the latest research and the benefits and risks of different testing modalities. A recent survey of primary care physicians and cardiologists conducted by the Elsevier Office of Continuing Medical Education found that approximately one-quarter of the cardiologists and primary care physicians surveyed do not feel confident identifying the factors which should be considered before ordering a cardiac stress test as part of pre-operative screening for a patient. Additionally, this survey also reported that primary care physicians reported a high degree of confidence in ordering the appropriate cardiac screening tests for patients yet, cardiologists reported that they frequently/somewhat frequently felt the need to change the test ordered by the internist. This educational intervention focuses on patient selection, exercise vs. pharmacologic stress testing, pharmacologic agents, and the importance of patient and doctor communication in ensuring the right test is recommended for the right patient. This CME Multimedia Activity is also available through the

  1. Prognostic value of health-related quality of life for death risk stratification in patients with unresectable glioblastoma.

    PubMed

    Paquette, Brice; Vernerey, Dewi; Chauffert, Bruno; Dabakuyo, Sandrine; Feuvret, Loic; Taillandier, Luc; Frappaz, Didier; Taillia, Hervé; Schott, Roland; Ducray, François; Fabbro, Michel; Tennevet, Isabelle; Ghiringhelli, François; Guillamo, Jean-Sébastien; Durando, Xavier; Castera, Daniel; Frenay, Marc; Campello, Chantal; Dalban, Cécile; Skrzypski, Jérome; Chinot, Olivier; Anota, Amélie; Bonnetain, Franck

    2016-08-01

    Glioblastoma is the most common malignant brain tumor in adults. Baseline health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is a major subject of concern for these patients. We aimed to assess the independent prognostic value of HRQoL in unresectable glioblastoma (UGB) patients for death risk stratification. One hundred and thirty-four patients with UGB were enrolled from the TEMAVIR trial. HRQoL was evaluated at baseline using the EORTC QLQ-C30 and BN20 brain cancer module. Clinical and HRQoL parameters were evaluated in univariable and multivariable Cox analysis as prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). Performance assessment and internal validation of the final model were evaluated with Harrel's C-index, calibration plot, and bootstrap sample procedure. Two OS independent predictors were identified: future uncertainty and sensitivity deficit. The final model exhibited good calibration and acceptable discrimination (C statistic = 0.63). The internal validity of the model was verified with robust uncertainties around the hazard ratio. The prognostic score identified three groups of patients with distinctly different risk profiles with median OS estimated at 16.2, 9.2, and 4.5 months. We demonstrated the additional prognostic value of HRQoL in UGB for death risk stratification and provided a score that may help to guide clinical management and stratification in future clinical trials.

  2. Risk Stratification for Primary Prevention of Coronary Artery Disease: Roles of C-Reactive Protein and Coronary Artery Calcium.

    PubMed

    Qureshi, Waqas T; Rana, Jamal S; Yeboah, Joseph; Bin Nasir, Usama; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H

    2015-12-01

    Risk stratification of individuals at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) plays an important role in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. In addition to risk scores derived from conventional cardiovascular risk factors, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and coronary artery calcium (CAC) have emerged as two of the widely accepted non traditional risk factors for atherosclerotic disease that have shown incremental prognostic value in predicting cardiovascular events. This review systematically assesses the role of hs-CRP and CAC in various studies and demonstrates meta-analyses of the incremental prognostic value of hs-CRP and CAC in identifying patients at risk of future CVD events. Compared with this, CAC showed better incremental prognostic value and might be a better indicator of ASCVD risk in asymptomatic adults.

  3. Ventricular arrhythmias in competitive athletes: risk stratification with T-wave alternans

    PubMed Central

    INAMA, GIUSEPPE; PEDRINAZZI, CLAUDIO; DURIN, ORNELLA; NANETTI, MASSIMILIANO; DONATO, GIORGIO; PIZZI, RITA

    2007-01-01

    Introduction: Aim of our study is to evaluate the role of TWA to stratify the risk of sudden cardiac death in athletes (Ath) with complex ventricular arrhythmias (VA), and to document a possible correlation between TWA and electrophysiological testing (EES) results. Methods: We studied 43 Ath with VA (31 M, mean age 34 ± 12 years). In all cases a cardiological evaluation was performed, including TWA and EES. The patients were evaluated during a follow-up of 25 ± 22 months. The end-point was the occurrence of sudden death or malignant ventricular tachyarrhythmias (VT). Results: TWA was negative in 28 Ath (65%), positive in 8 (19%) and indeterminate in 7 (16%). All subjects with negative TWA did not show induction of VT at EES, with significant correlation between negative TWA and negative EES (p<0.001). All Ath with positive TWA also had VT induced by a EES, but without significant correlation between positive TWA and positive EES. In 2 Ath with undetermined TWA (29%) VT were induced at EES. Our data did not show significant correlation between indeterminate TWA and positive or negative EES. However, logistic regression analysis showed significant correlation between abnormal TWA test (positive or indeterminate) and inducibility of VT at EES (p<0.001). During follow-up we observed a significant difference in end-point occurrence between Ath with negative or positive TWA and between Ath with negative or positive EES. Conclusion: TWA confirm its role as a simple and non-invasive test, and it seems useful for prognostic stratification of Ath with VA. PMID:21977276

  4. Rectal Optical Markers for In-vivo Risk Stratification of Premalignant Colorectal Lesions

    PubMed Central

    Radosevich, Andrew J.; Mutyal, Nikhil N.; Eshein, Adam; Nguyen, The-Quyen; Gould, Bradley; Rogers, Jeremy D.; Goldberg, Michael J; Bianchi, Laura K; Yen, Eugene F.; Konda, Vani; Rex, Douglas K.; Van Dam, Jacques

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Colorectal cancer remains the second leading cause of cancer deaths in the U.S. despite being eminently preventable by colonoscopy via removal of premalignant adenomas. In order to more effectively reduce colorectal cancer mortality, improved screening paradigms are needed. Our group pioneered the use of low coherence enhanced backscattering (LEBS) spectroscopy to detect the presence of adenomas throughout the colon via optical interrogation of the rectal mucosa. In a previous ex-vivo biopsy study of 219 patients, LEBS demonstrated excellent diagnostic potential with 89.5% accuracy for advanced adenomas. The objective of the current cross-sectional study is to assess the viability of rectal LEBS in-vivo. Experimental Design Measurements from 619 patients were taken using a minimally invasive 3.4 mm diameter LEBS probe introduced into the rectum via anoscope or direct insertion, requiring ~1 minute from probe insertion to withdrawal. The diagnostic LEBS marker was formed as a logistic regression of the optical reduced scattering coefficient μs∗ and mass density distribution factor D. Results The rectal LEBS marker was significantly altered in patients harboring advanced adenomas and multiple non-advanced adenomas throughout the colon. Blinded and cross-validated test performance characteristics showed 88% sensitivity to advanced adenomas, 71% sensitivity to multiple non-advanced adenomas, and 72% specificity in the validation set. Conclusions We demonstrate the viability of in-vivo LEBS measurement of histologically normal rectal mucosa to predict the presence of clinically relevant adenomas throughout the colon. The current work represents the next step in the development of rectal LEBS as a tool for colorectal cancer risk stratification. PMID:25991816

  5. Gastric ulcers: malignancy yield and risk stratification for follow-up endoscopy

    PubMed Central

    Selinger, Christian P; Cochrane, Rebecca; Thanaraj, Sangeetha; Sainsbury, Anita; Subramanian, Venkat; Everett, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Background and study aim: Malignant change can occur in gastric ulcer but guideline recommendations for follow-endoscopy (FU-OGD) are conflicting. This study aims to determine rate of malignancy and need for follow-up for gastric ulcers. Patients and methods: Patients with a first diagnosis of gastric ulcer between January 2012 and September 2013 were studied by analyzing endoscopic assessments, dysplasia, and malignancy yield and the influence of risk factors on the likelihood of benign disease. Results: In a cohort of 432 patients with gastric ulcer (53 % male, mean age 65 years) dysplasia or neoplasia were found in 27 (19 adenocarcinomas, 2 cases of dysplasia, 5 lymphomas, 1 melanoma; malignancy yield 6 %). Twenty-five (93 %) cases were diagnosed on first biopsy. The cancer yield of FU-OGD after initially benign biopsy was 0.9 %. Binary logistic regression analysis revealed that endoscopically benign appearance (odds ratio 0.004 95 % CI 0 – 0.576; P = 0.029), benign histology on first biopsy (odds ratio 0 95 % CI 0 – 0.39; P = 0.011) and lower number of ulcers (odds ratio 0.22 (95 % CI 0.05 – 0.99); P = 0.049) were independent predictors of benign disease. All dysplastic and neoplastic cases would have been identified by a combination of initial biopsies plus repeat endoscopy with further biopsies for endoscopically suspicious appearances. Conclusions: In this large cohort 6 % of gastric ulcers were found to be malignant, highlighting the need for all gastric ulcers to be biopsied. The cancer yield of FU-OGD after benign biopsies was low. We have demonstrated that the combination of benign index histology and no endoscopic suspicion of malignancy can predict benign disease. We recommend that all gastric ulcers to be biopsied. Risk stratification could potentially reduce need for FU-OGD. PMID:27556082

  6. A simple risk stratification model that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality rate in patients with solid-organ cancer

    PubMed Central

    Chou, Wen-Chi; Wang, Frank; Cheng, Yu-Fan; Chen, Miao-Fen; Lu, Chang-Hsien; Wang, Cheng-Hsu; Lin, Yung-Chang; Yeh, Ta-Sen

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to construct a scoring system developed exclusively from the preoperative data that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality in patients with solid cancers. A total of 20,632 patients who had a curative resection for solid-organ cancers between 2007 and 2012 at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital Linkou Medical Center were included in the derivation cohort. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a risk model that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality. Patients were then stratified into four risk groups (low-, intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk) according to the total score (0–43) form mortality risk analysis. An independent cohort of 16,656 patients who underwent curative cancer surgeries at three other hospitals during the same study period (validation cohort) was enrolled to verify the risk model. Age, gender, cancer site, history of previous cancer, tumor stage, Charlson comorbidity index, American Society of Anesthesiologist score, admission type, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status were independently predictive of 1-year postoperative mortality. The 1-year postoperative mortality rates were 0.5%, 3.8%, 14.6%, and 33.8%, respectively, among the four risk groups in the derivation cohort (c-statistic, 0.80), compared with 0.9%, 4.2%, 14.6%, and 32.6%, respectively, in the validation cohort (c-statistic, 0.78). The risk stratification model also demonstrated good discrimination of long-term survival outcome of the four-tier risk groups (P < 0.01 for both cohorts). The risk stratification model not only predicts 1-year postoperative mortality but also differentiates long-term survival outcome between the risk groups. PMID:26311149

  7. A simple risk stratification model that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality rate in patients with solid-organ cancer.

    PubMed

    Chou, Wen-Chi; Wang, Frank; Cheng, Yu-Fan; Chen, Miao-Fen; Lu, Chang-Hsien; Wang, Cheng-Hsu; Lin, Yung-Chang; Yeh, Ta-Sen

    2015-11-01

    This study aimed to construct a scoring system developed exclusively from the preoperative data that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality in patients with solid cancers. A total of 20,632 patients who had a curative resection for solid-organ cancers between 2007 and 2012 at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital Linkou Medical Center were included in the derivation cohort. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a risk model that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality. Patients were then stratified into four risk groups (low-, intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk) according to the total score (0-43) form mortality risk analysis. An independent cohort of 16,656 patients who underwent curative cancer surgeries at three other hospitals during the same study period (validation cohort) was enrolled to verify the risk model. Age, gender, cancer site, history of previous cancer, tumor stage, Charlson comorbidity index, American Society of Anesthesiologist score, admission type, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status were independently predictive of 1-year postoperative mortality. The 1-year postoperative mortality rates were 0.5%, 3.8%, 14.6%, and 33.8%, respectively, among the four risk groups in the derivation cohort (c-statistic, 0.80), compared with 0.9%, 4.2%, 14.6%, and 32.6%, respectively, in the validation cohort (c-statistic, 0.78). The risk stratification model also demonstrated good discrimination of long-term survival outcome of the four-tier risk groups (P < 0.01 for both cohorts). The risk stratification model not only predicts 1-year postoperative mortality but also differentiates long-term survival outcome between the risk groups.

  8. Exploring the color feature power for psoriasis risk stratification and classification: A data mining paradigm.

    PubMed

    Shrivastava, Vimal K; Londhe, Narendra D; Sonawane, Rajendra S; Suri, Jasjit S

    2015-10-01

    A large percentage of dermatologist׳s decision in psoriasis disease assessment is based on color. The current computer-aided diagnosis systems for psoriasis risk stratification and classification lack the vigor of color paradigm. The paper presents an automated psoriasis computer-aided diagnosis (pCAD) system for classification of psoriasis skin images into psoriatic lesion and healthy skin, which solves the two major challenges: (i) fulfills the color feature requirements and (ii) selects the powerful dominant color features while retaining high classification accuracy. Fourteen color spaces are discovered for psoriasis disease analysis leading to 86 color features. The pCAD system is implemented in a support vector-based machine learning framework where the offline image data set is used for computing machine learning offline color machine learning parameters. These are then used for transformation of the online color features to predict the class labels for healthy vs. diseased cases. The above paradigm uses principal component analysis for color feature selection of dominant features, keeping the original color feature unaltered. Using the cross-validation protocol, the above machine learning protocol is compared against the standalone grayscale features with 60 features and against the combined grayscale and color feature set of 146. Using a fixed data size of 540 images with equal number of healthy and diseased, 10 fold cross-validation protocol, and SVM of polynomial kernel of type two, pCAD system shows an accuracy of 99.94% with sensitivity and specificity of 99.93% and 99.96%. Using a varying data size protocol, the mean classification accuracies for color, grayscale, and combined scenarios are: 92.85%, 93.83% and 93.99%, respectively. The reliability of the system in these three scenarios are: 94.42%, 97.39% and 96.00%, respectively. We conclude that pCAD system using color space alone is compatible to grayscale space or combined color and grayscale

  9. Exploring the color feature power for psoriasis risk stratification and classification: A data mining paradigm.

    PubMed

    Shrivastava, Vimal K; Londhe, Narendra D; Sonawane, Rajendra S; Suri, Jasjit S

    2015-10-01

    A large percentage of dermatologist׳s decision in psoriasis disease assessment is based on color. The current computer-aided diagnosis systems for psoriasis risk stratification and classification lack the vigor of color paradigm. The paper presents an automated psoriasis computer-aided diagnosis (pCAD) system for classification of psoriasis skin images into psoriatic lesion and healthy skin, which solves the two major challenges: (i) fulfills the color feature requirements and (ii) selects the powerful dominant color features while retaining high classification accuracy. Fourteen color spaces are discovered for psoriasis disease analysis leading to 86 color features. The pCAD system is implemented in a support vector-based machine learning framework where the offline image data set is used for computing machine learning offline color machine learning parameters. These are then used for transformation of the online color features to predict the class labels for healthy vs. diseased cases. The above paradigm uses principal component analysis for color feature selection of dominant features, keeping the original color feature unaltered. Using the cross-validation protocol, the above machine learning protocol is compared against the standalone grayscale features with 60 features and against the combined grayscale and color feature set of 146. Using a fixed data size of 540 images with equal number of healthy and diseased, 10 fold cross-validation protocol, and SVM of polynomial kernel of type two, pCAD system shows an accuracy of 99.94% with sensitivity and specificity of 99.93% and 99.96%. Using a varying data size protocol, the mean classification accuracies for color, grayscale, and combined scenarios are: 92.85%, 93.83% and 93.99%, respectively. The reliability of the system in these three scenarios are: 94.42%, 97.39% and 96.00%, respectively. We conclude that pCAD system using color space alone is compatible to grayscale space or combined color and grayscale

  10. Can human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping classify non-16/18 high-risk HPV infection by risk stratification?

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Objective Infection with high-risk genotypes of human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) is the major cause of invasive cervical cancers. HPV-16 and HPV-18 are known to be responsible for two-thirds of all invasive cervical carcinomas, followed by HPV-45, -31, and -33. Current guidelines only differentiate HPV-16/18 (+) by recommending direct colposcopy for treatment. We tried to evaluate whether there are differences in risk among 12 non-16/18 HR-HPV genotypes in this study. Methods The pathology archive database records of 1,102 consecutive gynecologic patients, who had results for cervical cytology and histology and for HPV testing, as determined by HPV 9G DNA chip, were reviewed. Results Among the 1,102 patients, 346 were non-16/18 HR-HPV (+) and 231 were HPV-16/18 (+). We calculated the odds ratios for ≥cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 (CIN 2) of 14 groups of each HR-HPV genotype compared with a group of HR-HPV (–) patients. Based on the odds ratio of each genotype, we divided patients with non-16/18 HR-HPV genotypes (+) into two groups: HPV-31/33/35/45/52/58 (+) and HPV-39/51/56/59/66/68 (+). The age-adjusted odds ratios for ≥CIN 2 of the HPV-31/33/35/45/52/58 (+) and HPV-39/51/56/59/66/68 (+) groups compared with a HR-HPV (–) group were 11.9 (95% CI, 7.6 to 18.8; p<0.001) and 2.4 (95% CI, 1.4 to 4.3; p<0.001), respectively, while that of the HPV-16/18 (+) group was 18.1 (95% CI, 11.6 to 28.3; p=0.003). Conclusion The 12 non-16/18 HR-HPV genotypes can be further categorized (HPV-31/33/35/45/52/58 vs. HPV-39/51/56/59/66/68) by risk stratification. The HPV-31/33/35/45/52/58 genotypes might need more aggressive action. Large scale clinical trials or cohort studies are necessary to confirm our suggestion. PMID:27550402

  11. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  12. Diagnostic evaluation of people with hypertension in low income country: cohort study of “essential” method of risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Montalvo, Gregorio; Anselmi, Mariella; Prandi, Rosanna; Ibarra, Samuel; Marquez, Monica; Armani, Daniela; Moreira, Juan-Martín; Caicedo, Cynthia; Roncaglioni, Maria Carla; Colombo, Fabio; Camisasca, Paola; Milani, Valentina; Quimì, Simon; Gonzabay, Felix; Tognoni, Gianni

    2008-01-01

    Objectives To explore the predictive power of a risk stratification method for people with hypertension based on “essential” procedures (that is, available in economically less developed areas of the world), comparing it in the same population with the results given by the method suggested by the 1999 World Health Organization-International Society of Hypertension (WHO-ISH) guidelines. Design Prospective cohort study of outcomes according to cardiovascular risk profile at baseline. Setting Primary care in a poor rural area of the Ecuadorian forest. Participants 504 people with hypertension prospectively monitored for a mean of 6.7 (SD 2.3) years. Interventions Essential data included blood pressure, medical history, smoking, age, sex, and diagnosis of diabetes; the WHO-ISH methods additionally included measurement of fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, and creatinine, urinalysis, and electrocardiography. Main outcome measures Cardiovascular events and total deaths. Results With both methods there was a highly significant association between the level of predicted risk and the incidence of cardiovascular events and of total deaths: up to three quarters of all cardiovascular events and two thirds of all deaths were reported among people classified as at high or very high risk with either method. The predictive discrimination of the essential method is comparable with the WHO-ISH with C statistics (95% confidence interval) of 0.788 (0.721 to 0.855) and 0.744 (0.673 to 0.815), respectively, for cardiovascular events and 0.747 (0.678 to 0.816) and 0.705 (0.632 to 0.778) for total mortality. Conclusions The risk stratification of patients with hypertension with an essential package of variables (that is, available and practicable even in the economically less developed areas of the world) serves at least as well as the more comprehensive method proposed by WHO-ISH. PMID:18805835

  13. A perspective on the range of gasoline compression ignition combustion strategies for high engine efficiency and low NOx and soot emissions: Effects of in-cylinder fuel stratification

    DOE PAGES

    Dempsey, Adam B.; Curran, Scott J.; Wagner, Robert M.

    2016-01-14

    Many research studies have shown that low temperature combustion in compression ignition engines has the ability to yield ultra-low NOx and soot emissions while maintaining high thermal efficiency. To achieve low temperature combustion, sufficient mixing time between the fuel and air in a globally dilute environment is required, thereby avoiding fuel-rich regions and reducing peak combustion temperatures, which significantly reduces soot and NOx formation, respectively. It has been demonstrated that achieving low temperature combustion with diesel fuel over a wide range of conditions is difficult because of its properties, namely, low volatility and high chemical reactivity. On the contrary, gasolinemore » has a high volatility and low chemical reactivity, meaning it is easier to achieve the amount of premixing time required prior to autoignition to achieve low temperature combustion. In order to achieve low temperature combustion while meeting other constraints, such as low pressure rise rates and maintaining control over the timing of combustion, in-cylinder fuel stratification has been widely investigated for gasoline low temperature combustion engines. The level of fuel stratification is, in reality, a continuum ranging from fully premixed (i.e. homogeneous charge of fuel and air) to heavily stratified, heterogeneous operation, such as diesel combustion. However, to illustrate the impact of fuel stratification on gasoline compression ignition, the authors have identified three representative operating strategies: partial, moderate, and heavy fuel stratification. Thus, this article provides an overview and perspective of the current research efforts to develop engine operating strategies for achieving gasoline low temperature combustion in a compression ignition engine via fuel stratification. In this paper, computational fluid dynamics modeling of the in-cylinder processes during the closed valve portion of the cycle was used to illustrate the opportunities

  14. Integrated e-Health approach based on vascular ultrasound and pulse wave analysis for asymptomatic atherosclerosis detection and cardiovascular risk stratification in the community.

    PubMed

    Santana, Daniel Bia; Zócalo, Yanina A; Armentano, Ricardo L

    2012-03-01

    New strategies are urgently needed to identify subjects at increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACVD) development or complications. A National Public University Center (CUiiDARTE) was created in Uruguay, based on six main pillars: 1) integration of experts in different disciplines and creation of multidisciplinary teams, 2) incidence in public and professional education programs to give training in the use of new technologies and to shift the focus from ACVD treatment to disease prevention, 3) implementation of free vascular studies in the community (distributed rather than centralized healthcare), 4) innovation and application of e-Health and noninvasive technology and approaches, 5) design and development of a biomedical approach to determine the target population and patient workflow, and 6) improvement in individual risk estimation and differentiation between aging and ACVD-related arterial changes using population-based epidemiological and statistical patient-specific models. This work describes main features of CUiiDARTE project implementation, the scientific and technological steps and innovations done for individual risk stratification, and sub-clinical ACVD diagnosis.

  15. Integrated e-Health approach based on vascular ultrasound and pulse wave analysis for asymptomatic atherosclerosis detection and cardiovascular risk stratification in the community.

    PubMed

    Santana, Daniel Bia; Zócalo, Yanina A; Armentano, Ricardo L

    2012-03-01

    New strategies are urgently needed to identify subjects at increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACVD) development or complications. A National Public University Center (CUiiDARTE) was created in Uruguay, based on six main pillars: 1) integration of experts in different disciplines and creation of multidisciplinary teams, 2) incidence in public and professional education programs to give training in the use of new technologies and to shift the focus from ACVD treatment to disease prevention, 3) implementation of free vascular studies in the community (distributed rather than centralized healthcare), 4) innovation and application of e-Health and noninvasive technology and approaches, 5) design and development of a biomedical approach to determine the target population and patient workflow, and 6) improvement in individual risk estimation and differentiation between aging and ACVD-related arterial changes using population-based epidemiological and statistical patient-specific models. This work describes main features of CUiiDARTE project implementation, the scientific and technological steps and innovations done for individual risk stratification, and sub-clinical ACVD diagnosis. PMID:22271835

  16. Validation of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide cut-off values for risk stratification of pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Lankeit, Mareike; Jiménez, David; Kostrubiec, Maciej; Dellas, Claudia; Kuhnert, Katherina; Hasenfuß, Gerd; Pruszczyk, Piotr; Konstantinides, Stavros

    2014-06-01

    The optimal N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) cut-off value for risk stratification of pulmonary embolism remains controversial. In this study we validated and compared different proposed NT-proBNP cut-off values in 688 normotensive patients with pulmonary embolism. During the first 30 days, 28 (4.1%) patients reached the primary outcome (pulmonary embolism-related death or complications) and 29 (4.2%) patients died. Receiver operating characteristic analysis yielded an area under the curve of 0.70 (0.60-0.80) for NT-proBNP. A cut-off value of 600 pg·mL(-1) was associated with the best prognostic performance (sensitivity 86% and specificity 50%) and the highest odds ratio (6.04 (95% CI 2.07-17.59), p=0.001) compared to the cut-off values of 1000, 500 or 300 pg·mL(-1). Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, NT-proBNP ≥ 600 pg·mL(-1) had a prognostic impact on top of that of the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index and right ventricular dysfunction on echocardiography (OR 4.27 (95% CI 1.22-15.01); p=0.024, c-index 0.741). The use of a stepwise approach based on the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index, NT-proBNP ≥ 600 pg·mL(-1) and echocardiography helped optimise risk assessment. Our findings confirm the prognostic value of NT-proBNP and suggest that a cut-off value of 600 pg·mL(-1) is most appropriate for risk stratification of normotensive patients with pulmonary embolism. NT-proBNP should be used in combination with a clinical score and an imaging procedure for detecting right ventricular dysfunction.

  17. Risk stratification for major adverse cardiac events and ventricular tachyarrhythmias by cardiac MRI in patients with cardiac sarcoidosis

    PubMed Central

    Yasuda, Masakazu; Iwanaga, Yoshitaka; Kato, Takao; Izumi, Toshiaki; Inuzuka, Yasutaka; Nakamura, Takashi; Miyaji, Yuki; Kawamura, Takayuki; Ikeguchi, Shigeru; Inoko, Moriaki; Kurita, Takashi; Miyazaki, Shunichi

    2016-01-01

    Background The presence of myocardial fibrosis by cardiac MRI has prognostic value in cardiac sarcoidosis, and localisation may be equally relevant to clinical outcomes. Objective We aimed to analyse cardiac damage and function in detail and explore the relationship with clinical outcomes in patients with cardiac sarcoidosis using cardiac MRI. Methods We included 81 consecutive patients with cardiac sarcoidosis undergoing cardiac MR. Left ventricular mass and fibrosis mass were calculated, and localisation was analysed using a 17-segment model. Participants underwent follow-up through 2015, and the development of major adverse cardiac events including ventricular tachyarrhythmias was recorded. Results Increased left ventricular fibrosis mass was associated with increased prevalence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias (p<0.001). When localisation was defined as the sum of late gadolinium enhancement in the left ventricular basal anterior and basal anteroseptal areas, or the right ventricular area, it was associated with ventricular tachyarrhythmias (p<0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis during a median follow-up of 22.1 months showed that both the mass and localisation groupings for fibrosis were significantly associated with major adverse cardiac events or ventricular tachyarrhythmias and that when combined, the risk stratification was better than for each variable alone (p<0.001, respectively). By Cox-proportional hazard risk analysis, the localisation grouping was an independent predictor for the both. Conclusions In patients with cardiac sarcoidosis, both fibrosis mass and its localisation to the basal anterior/anteroseptal left ventricle, or right ventricle was associated with the development of major adverse cardiac events or ventricular tachyarrhythmias. Cardiac MR with late gadolinium enhancement may be useful for improving risk stratification in patients with cardiac sarcoidosis. PMID:27547432

  18. Robust Derivation of Risk Reduction Strategies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richardson, Julian; Port, Daniel; Feather, Martin

    2007-01-01

    Effective risk reduction strategies can be derived mechanically given sufficient characterization of the risks present in the system and the effectiveness of available risk reduction techniques. In this paper, we address an important question: can we reliably expect mechanically derived risk reduction strategies to be better than fixed or hand-selected risk reduction strategies, given that the quantitative assessment of risks and risk reduction techniques upon which mechanical derivation is based is difficult and likely to be inaccurate? We consider this question relative to two methods for deriving effective risk reduction strategies: the strategic method defined by Kazman, Port et al [Port et al, 2005], and the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool [Feather & Cornford, 2003]. We performed a number of sensitivity experiments to evaluate how inaccurate knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques affect the performance of the strategies computed by the Strategic Method compared to a variety of alternative strategies. The experimental results indicate that strategies computed by the Strategic Method were significantly more effective than the alternative risk reduction strategies, even when knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques was very inaccurate. The robustness of the Strategic Method suggests that its use should be considered in a wide range of projects.

  19. D-dimer testing for safe exclusion and risk stratification in patients with acute pulmonary embolism in primary care

    PubMed Central

    Yin, Zhou; Chen, Yiyi; Xie, Qiong; Shao, Zhexin

    2015-01-01

    Background: Safe exclusion and risk stratification are currently recommended for the initial management of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE). The aim of this study was to assess the safe exclusion and risk stratification value of D-dimer (DD) for APE when tested at the beginning of admission. Materials and Methods: All consecutive Chinese APE patients and controls were recruited from January 2010 to December 2012. All measurements of serum indexes were made in duplicate and blinded to the patients’ status. All the 40 patients with the first episode of APE were confirmed by multi-detector computed tomographic pulmonary angiography. The plasma prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time, thrombin time, fibrinogen, and DD levels were measured within 24 h of admission. We used the Mann-Whitney U-test to determine the differences between groups and drew receiver operator characteristic curve to evaluate the indexes’ value in the APE screening. Results: The PT and DD in the APE group were significantly higher than those in the disease control group (P < 0.05). Taking PT and DD as the useful screening tests for APE and AUC was 0.765 and 0.822, respectively. DD yielded the higher screening efficiency, with DD >1820 μg/L as cut-off value, the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value was 82.5%, 75.2%, 56.9%, and 91.6%, respectively. Conclusion: The patients with APE showed significant higher DD levels compared with disease controls, suggesting a negative qualitative DD test result can safely and efficiently exclude APE in primary care. PMID:26622257

  20. MRI Risk Stratification for Tumor Relapse in Rectal Cancer Achieving Pathological Complete Remission after Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation Therapy and Curative Resection

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Honsoul; Myoung, Sungmin; Koom, Woong Sub; Kim, Nam Kyu; Kim, Myeong-Jin; Ahn, Joong Bae; Hur, Hyuk; Lim, Joon Seok

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Rectal cancer patients achieving pCR are known to have an excellent prognosis, yet no widely accepted consensus on risk stratification and post-operative management (e.g., adjuvant therapy) has been established. This study aimed to identify magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) high-risk factors for tumor relapse in pathological complete remission (pCR) achieved by rectal cancer patients who have undergone neoadjuvant concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CRT) and curative resection. Materials and Methods We analyzed 88 (male/female = 55/33, median age, 59.5 years [range 34–78]) pCR-proven rectal cancer patients who had undergone pre-CRT MRI, CRT, post-CRT MRI and curative surgery between July 2005 and December 2012. Patients were observed for post-operative tumor relapse. We analyzed the pre/post-CRT MRIs for parameters including mrT stage, mesorectal fascia (mrMRF) status, tumor volume, tumor regression grade (mrTRG), nodal status (mrN), and extramural vessel invasion (mrEMVI). We performed univariate analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Results Post-operative tumor relapse occurred in seven patients (8.0%, n = 7/88) between 5.7 and 50.7 (median 16.8) months. No significant relevance was observed between tumor volume, volume reduction rate, mrTRG, mrT, or mrN status. Meanwhile, positive mrMRF (Ppre-CRT = 0.018, Ppre/post-CRT = 0.006) and mrEMVI (Ppre-CRT = 0.026, Ppre-/post-CRT = 0.008) were associated with higher incidence of post-operative tumor relapse. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed a higher risk of tumor relapse in patients with positive mrMRF (Ppre-CRT = 0.029, Ppre-/post-CRT = 0.009) or mrEMVI (Ppre-CRT = 0.024, Ppre-/post-CRT = 0.003). Conclusion Positive mrMRF and mrEMVI status was associated with a higher risk of post-operative tumor relapse of pCR achieved by rectal cancer patients, and therefore, can be applied for risk stratification and to individualize treatment plans. PMID:26730717

  1. Germinal center phenotype and bcl-2 expression combined with the International Prognostic Index improves patient risk stratification in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Barrans, Sharon L; Carter, Ian; Owen, Roger G; Davies, Faith E; Patmore, Russell D; Haynes, Andrew P; Morgan, Gareth J; Jack, Andrew S

    2002-02-15

    The International Prognostic Index (IPI) identifies poor- and good-risk patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL); however, the majority of patients have an intermediate IPI, with an uncertain prognosis. To determine whether cellular factors can be combined with the IPI to more accurately predict outcome, we have analyzed 177 presentation nodal DLBCLs for the expression of bcl-2 and a germinal center (GC) phenotype (defined by expression of bcl-6 and CD10). P53 gene band shifts were detected using single-stranded conformational polymorphism polymerase chain reaction analysis of exons 5-9 and were correlated with protein expression. In a Cox regression analysis, IPI (R = 0.22, P <.0001) and bcl-2 (R = 0.14, P =.0001) were independent poor prognostic factors and a GC phenotype predicted a favorable outcome (R = -0.025, P =.02). Neither p53 expression nor band shifts had a significant effect on survival. Using the IPI alone, 8% of patients were identified as high risk. Expression of bcl-2 in the intermediate IPI group identified a further 28% of patients with an overall survival comparable to the high IPI group. In the intermediate IPI, bcl-2(-) group, the presence of a GC phenotype improved overall survival to levels approaching the IPI low group. Following this analysis only 15% of patients failed to be assigned to a favorable- or poor-risk group. Sequential addition of bcl-2 expression and GC phenotype into the IPI significantly improves risk stratification in DLBCL. For the 36% of high-risk patients with a 2-year overall survival of 19%, alternative treatment strategies should be considered in future trials. PMID:11830458

  2. Monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis and early-stage chronic lymphocytic leukemia: diagnosis, natural history, and risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Strati, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    Monoclonal B lymphocytosis (MBL) is defined as the presence of a clonal B-cell population in the peripheral blood with fewer than 5 × 109/L B-cells and no other signs of a lymphoproliferative disorder. The majority of cases of MBL have the immunophenotype of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). MBL can be categorized as either low count or high count based on whether the B-cell count is above or below 0.5 × 109/L. Low-count MBL can be detected in ∼5% of adults over the age of 40 years when assessed using standard-sensitivity flow cytometry assays. A number of biological and genetic characteristics distinguish low-count from high-count MBL. Whereas low-count MBL rarely progresses to CLL, high-count MBL progresses to CLL requiring therapy at a rate of 1% to 2% per year. High-count MBL is distinguished from Rai 0 CLL based on whether the B-cell count is above or below 5 × 109/L. Although individuals with both high-count MBL and CLL Rai stage 0 are at increased risk of infections and second cancers, the risk of progression requiring treatment and the potential to shorten life expectancy are greater for CLL. This review highlights challenging questions regarding the classification, risk stratification, management, and supportive care of patients with MBL and CLL. PMID:26065657

  3. Integration of Different Risk Assessment Tools to Improve Stratification of Patients with Coronary Artery Disease.

    PubMed

    Paredes, S; Rocha, T; de Carvalho, P; Henriques, J; Morais, J; Ferreira, J

    2015-10-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) causes unaffordable social and health costs that tend to increase as the European population ages. In this context, clinical guidelines recommend the use of risk scores to predict the risk of a cardiovascular disease event. Some useful tools have been developed to predict the risk of occurrence of a cardiovascular disease event (e.g. hospitalization or death). However, these tools present some drawbacks. These problems are addressed through two methodologies: (i) combination of risk assessment tools: fusion of naïve Bayes classifiers complemented with a genetic optimization algorithm and (ii) personalization of risk assessment: subtractive clustering applied to a reduced-dimensional space to create groups of patients. Validation was performed based on two ACS-NSTEMI patient data sets. This work improved the performance in relation to current risk assessment tools, achieving maximum values of sensitivity, specificity, and geometric mean of, respectively, 79.8, 83.8, and 80.9 %. Additionally, it assured clinical interpretability, ability to incorporate of new risk factors, higher capability to deal with missing risk factors and avoiding the selection of a standard CVD risk assessment tool to be applied in the clinical practice. PMID:26215518

  4. Integration of Different Risk Assessment Tools to Improve Stratification of Patients with Coronary Artery Disease.

    PubMed

    Paredes, S; Rocha, T; de Carvalho, P; Henriques, J; Morais, J; Ferreira, J

    2015-10-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) causes unaffordable social and health costs that tend to increase as the European population ages. In this context, clinical guidelines recommend the use of risk scores to predict the risk of a cardiovascular disease event. Some useful tools have been developed to predict the risk of occurrence of a cardiovascular disease event (e.g. hospitalization or death). However, these tools present some drawbacks. These problems are addressed through two methodologies: (i) combination of risk assessment tools: fusion of naïve Bayes classifiers complemented with a genetic optimization algorithm and (ii) personalization of risk assessment: subtractive clustering applied to a reduced-dimensional space to create groups of patients. Validation was performed based on two ACS-NSTEMI patient data sets. This work improved the performance in relation to current risk assessment tools, achieving maximum values of sensitivity, specificity, and geometric mean of, respectively, 79.8, 83.8, and 80.9 %. Additionally, it assured clinical interpretability, ability to incorporate of new risk factors, higher capability to deal with missing risk factors and avoiding the selection of a standard CVD risk assessment tool to be applied in the clinical practice.

  5. Risk stratification and rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department – a quasi-randomised controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background To determine if risk stratification followed by rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department (ED) reduced functional decline, ED reattendance and hospitalisation. Method This was a quasi-randomised controlled trial. Patients were randomised by the last digit of their national registration identity card (NRIC). Odd number controls received standard ED care; even number patients received geriatric screening, followed by intervention and/or onward referrals. Patients were followed up for 12 months. Results There were 500 and 280 patients in the control and intervention groups. The intervention group had higher Triage Risk Screening Tool (TRST) scores (34.3% vs 25.4% TRST ≥3, p = 0.01) and lower baseline Instrumental Activity of Daily Living (IADL) scores (22.84 vs 24.18, p < 0.01). 82.9% of the intervention group had unmet needs; 62.1% accepted our interventions. Common positive findings were fall risk (65.0%), vision (61.4%), and footwear (58.2%). 28.2% were referred to a geriatric clinic and 11.8% were admitted. 425 (85.0%) controls and 234 (83.6%) in the intervention group completed their follow-up. After adjusting for TRST and baseline IADL, the intervention group had significant preservation in function (Basic ADL -0.99 vs -0.24, p < 0.01; IADL -2.57 vs +0.45, p < 0.01) at 12 months. The reduction in ED reattendance (OR0.75, CI 0.55-1.03, p = 0.07) and hospitalization (OR0.77, CI0.57-1.04, p = 0.09) were not significant, however the real difference would have been wider as 21.2% of the control group received geriatric screening at the request of the ED doctor. A major limitation was that a large proportion of patients who were randomized to the intervention group either refused (18.8%) or left the ED before being approached (32.0%). These two groups were not followed up, and hence were excluded in our analysis. Conclusion Risk stratification and focused geriatric screening in ED resulted in significant preservation

  6. Impact of Primary Gleason Grade on Risk Stratification for Gleason Score 7 Prostate Cancers

    SciTech Connect

    Koontz, Bridget F.; Tsivian, Matvey; Mouraviev, Vladimir; Sun, Leon; Vujaskovic, Zeljko; Moul, Judd; Lee, W. Robert

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. Methods: One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D'Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Results: Nine hundred seventy-nine patients had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Conclusions: Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities.

  7. Malaria ecotypes and stratification.

    PubMed

    Schapira, Allan; Boutsika, Konstantina

    2012-01-01

    To deal with the variability of malaria, control programmes need to stratify their malaria problem into a number of smaller units. Such stratification may be based on the epidemiology of malaria or on its determinants such as ecology. An ecotype classification was developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) around 1990, and it is time to assess its usefulness for current malaria control as well as for malaria modelling on the basis of published research. Journal and grey literature was searched for articles on malaria or Anopheles combined with ecology or stratification. It was found that all malaria in the world today could be assigned to one or more of the following ecotypes: savanna, plains and valleys; forest and forest fringe; foothill; mountain fringe and northern and southern fringes; desert fringe; coastal and urban. However, some areas are in transitional or mixed zones; furthermore, the implications of any ecotype depend on the biogeographical region, sometimes subregion, and finally, the knowledge on physiography needs to be supplemented by local information on natural, anthropic and health system processes including malaria control. Ecotyping can therefore not be seen as a shortcut to determine control interventions, but rather as a framework to supplement available epidemiological and entomological data so as to assess malaria situations at the local level, think through the particular risks and opportunities and reinforce intersectoral action. With these caveats, it does however emerge that several ecotypic distinctions are well defined and have relatively constant implications for control within certain biogeographic regions. Forest environments in the Indo-malay and the Neotropics are, with a few exceptions, associated with much higher malaria risk than in adjacent areas; the vectors are difficult to control, and the anthropic factors also often converge to impose constraints. Urban malaria in Africa is associated with lower risk than savanna

  8. Role of Computed Tomography for Diagnosis and Risk Stratification of Patients with Suspected or Known Coronary Artery Disease

    PubMed Central

    Kalra, Dan K.; Heo, Ran; Valenti, Valentina; Nakazato, Ryo; Min, James K.

    2014-01-01

    Cardiac computed tomography angiography(CCTA) has emerged as a powerful imaging modality for the detection and prognostication of individuals with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Because calcification of coronary plaque occurs in proportion to the total atheroma volume, the initial diagnostic potential of CCT focused on identification and quantification of coronary calcium in low to intermediate risk individuals, a finding that tracks precisely with the risk of incident adverse clinical events. Beyond non-contrast detection of coronary calcium, CCT employing the use of iodinated contrast yields incremental information regarding the degree and distribution of coronary plaques and stenosis, as well as vessel wall morphology and atherosclerotic plaque features. This additive information offers the promise of CCT to provide a more comprehensive view of total atherosclerotic burden as it relates to myocardial ischemia and future adverse clinical events. Further, emerging data suggest the prognostic and diagnostic importance of stenosis severity detection and atherosclerotic plaque features described by CCT—including positive remodeling, low attenuation plaque and spotty calcification—which have been associated with the “vulnerability” of plaque. We report a summary of the evidence supporting the role of CCT in the detection of subclinical and clinical CAD in both asymptomatic and symptomatic patients, and discuss the potential of CCT to augment identification of at-risk individuals. CCTA and coronary artery calcium scoring offer the ability to improve risk stratification, discrimination and reclassification of the risk in patients with suspected CAD and to non-invasively determine the measures of stenosis severity and atherosclerotic plaque features. PMID:24723554

  9. Effect of Preoperative Risk Group Stratification on Oncologic Outcomes of Patients with Adverse Pathologic Findings at Radical Prostatectomy

    PubMed Central

    Jang, Won Sik; Kim, Lawrence H. C.; Yoon, Cheol Yong; Rha, Koon Ho; Choi, Young Deuk; Hong, Sung Joon; Ham, Won Sik

    2016-01-01

    Background Current National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines recommend postoperative radiation therapy based only on adverse pathologic findings (APFs), irrespective of preoperative risk group. We assessed whether a model incorporating both the preoperative risk group and APFs could predict long-term oncologic outcomes better than a model based on APFs alone. Methods We retrospectively reviewed 4,404 men who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) at our institution between 1992 and 2014. After excluding patients receiving neoadjuvant therapy or with incomplete pathological or follow-up data, 3,092 men were included in the final analysis. APFs were defined as extraprostatic extension (EPE), seminal vesicle invasion (SVI), or a positive surgical margin (PSM). The adequacy of model fit to the data was compared using the likelihood-ratio test between the models with and without risk groups, and model discrimination was compared with the concordance index (c-index) for predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) and prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). We performed multivariate Cox proportional hazard model and competing risk regression analyses to identify predictors of BCR and PCSM in the total patient group and each of the risk groups. Results Adding risk groups to the model containing only APFs significantly improved the fit to the data (likelihood-ratio test, p <0.001) and the c-index increased from 0.693 to 0.732 for BCR and from 0.707 to 0.747 for PCSM. A RP Gleason score (GS) ≥8 and a PSM were independently associated with BCR in the total patient group and also each risk group. However, only a GS ≥8 and SVI were associated with PCSM in the total patient group (GS ≥8: hazard ratio [HR] 5.39 and SVI: HR 3.36) and the high-risk group (GS ≥8: HR 6.31 and SVI: HR 4.05). Conclusion The postoperative estimation of oncologic outcomes in men with APFs at RP was improved by considering preoperative risk group stratification. Although a PSM was an

  10. Arrhythmia risk stratification of patients after myocardial infarction using personalized heart models.

    PubMed

    Arevalo, Hermenegild J; Vadakkumpadan, Fijoy; Guallar, Eliseo; Jebb, Alexander; Malamas, Peter; Wu, Katherine C; Trayanova, Natalia A

    2016-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) from arrhythmias is a leading cause of mortality. For patients at high SCD risk, prophylactic insertion of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) reduces mortality. Current approaches to identify patients at risk for arrhythmia are, however, of low sensitivity and specificity, which results in a low rate of appropriate ICD therapy. Here, we develop a personalized approach to assess SCD risk in post-infarction patients based on cardiac imaging and computational modelling. We construct personalized three-dimensional computer models of post-infarction hearts from patients' clinical magnetic resonance imaging data and assess the propensity of each model to develop arrhythmia. In a proof-of-concept retrospective study, the virtual heart test significantly outperformed several existing clinical metrics in predicting future arrhythmic events. The robust and non-invasive personalized virtual heart risk assessment may have the potential to prevent SCD and avoid unnecessary ICD implantations. PMID:27164184

  11. Arrhythmia risk stratification of patients after myocardial infarction using personalized heart models

    PubMed Central

    Arevalo, Hermenegild J.; Vadakkumpadan, Fijoy; Guallar, Eliseo; Jebb, Alexander; Malamas, Peter; Wu, Katherine C.; Trayanova, Natalia A.

    2016-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) from arrhythmias is a leading cause of mortality. For patients at high SCD risk, prophylactic insertion of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) reduces mortality. Current approaches to identify patients at risk for arrhythmia are, however, of low sensitivity and specificity, which results in a low rate of appropriate ICD therapy. Here, we develop a personalized approach to assess SCD risk in post-infarction patients based on cardiac imaging and computational modelling. We construct personalized three-dimensional computer models of post-infarction hearts from patients' clinical magnetic resonance imaging data and assess the propensity of each model to develop arrhythmia. In a proof-of-concept retrospective study, the virtual heart test significantly outperformed several existing clinical metrics in predicting future arrhythmic events. The robust and non-invasive personalized virtual heart risk assessment may have the potential to prevent SCD and avoid unnecessary ICD implantations. PMID:27164184

  12. Quantitative ultrasound criteria for risk stratification in clinical practice: a comparative assessment.

    PubMed

    Noale, Marianna; Maggi, Stefania; Gonnelli, Stefano; Limongi, Federica; Zanoni, Silvia; Zambon, Sabina; Rozzini, Renzo; Crepaldi, Gaetano

    2012-07-01

    This study aimed to compare two different classifications of the risk of fracture/osteoporosis (OP) based on quantitative ultrasound (QUS). Analyses were based on data from the Epidemiological Study on the Prevalence of Osteoporosis, a cross-sectional study conducted in 2000 aimed at assessing the risk of OP in a representative sample of the Italian population. Subjects were classified into 5 groups considering the cross-classification found in previous studies; logistic regression models were defined separately for women and men to study the fracture risk attributable to groups defined by the cross-classification, adjusting for traditional risk factors. Eight-thousand six-hundred eighty-one subjects were considered in the analyses. Logistic regression models revealed that the two classifications seem to be able to identify a common core of individuals at low and at high risk of fractures, and the importance of a multidimensional assessment in older patients to evaluate clinical risk factors together with a simple, inexpensive, radiation-free device such as QUS.

  13. Sudden Cardiac Risk Stratification with Electrocardiographic Indices - A Review on Computational Processing, Technology Transfer, and Scientific Evidence.

    PubMed

    Gimeno-Blanes, Francisco J; Blanco-Velasco, Manuel; Barquero-Pérez, Óscar; García-Alberola, Arcadi; Rojo-Álvarez, José L

    2016-01-01

    Great effort has been devoted in recent years to the development of sudden cardiac risk predictors as a function of electric cardiac signals, mainly obtained from the electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis. But these prediction techniques are still seldom used in clinical practice, partly due to its limited diagnostic accuracy and to the lack of consensus about the appropriate computational signal processing implementation. This paper addresses a three-fold approach, based on ECG indices, to structure this review on sudden cardiac risk stratification. First, throughout the computational techniques that had been widely proposed for obtaining these indices in technical literature. Second, over the scientific evidence, that although is supported by observational clinical studies, they are not always representative enough. And third, via the limited technology transfer of academy-accepted algorithms, requiring further meditation for future systems. We focus on three families of ECG derived indices which are tackled from the aforementioned viewpoints, namely, heart rate turbulence (HRT), heart rate variability (HRV), and T-wave alternans. In terms of computational algorithms, we still need clearer scientific evidence, standardizing, and benchmarking, siting on advanced algorithms applied over large and representative datasets. New scenarios like electronic health recordings, big data, long-term monitoring, and cloud databases, will eventually open new frameworks to foresee suitable new paradigms in the near future. PMID:27014083

  14. Sudden Cardiac Risk Stratification with Electrocardiographic Indices - A Review on Computational Processing, Technology Transfer, and Scientific Evidence.

    PubMed

    Gimeno-Blanes, Francisco J; Blanco-Velasco, Manuel; Barquero-Pérez, Óscar; García-Alberola, Arcadi; Rojo-Álvarez, José L

    2016-01-01

    Great effort has been devoted in recent years to the development of sudden cardiac risk predictors as a function of electric cardiac signals, mainly obtained from the electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis. But these prediction techniques are still seldom used in clinical practice, partly due to its limited diagnostic accuracy and to the lack of consensus about the appropriate computational signal processing implementation. This paper addresses a three-fold approach, based on ECG indices, to structure this review on sudden cardiac risk stratification. First, throughout the computational techniques that had been widely proposed for obtaining these indices in technical literature. Second, over the scientific evidence, that although is supported by observational clinical studies, they are not always representative enough. And third, via the limited technology transfer of academy-accepted algorithms, requiring further meditation for future systems. We focus on three families of ECG derived indices which are tackled from the aforementioned viewpoints, namely, heart rate turbulence (HRT), heart rate variability (HRV), and T-wave alternans. In terms of computational algorithms, we still need clearer scientific evidence, standardizing, and benchmarking, siting on advanced algorithms applied over large and representative datasets. New scenarios like electronic health recordings, big data, long-term monitoring, and cloud databases, will eventually open new frameworks to foresee suitable new paradigms in the near future.

  15. Intensity of Left Atrial Spontaneous Echo Contrast as a Correlate for Stroke Risk Stratification in Patients with Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Yuanping; Ji, Lijing; Liu, Jian; Wu, Juefei; Wang, Yan; Shen, Shuxin; Guo, Shengcun; Jian, Rong; Chen, Gangbin; Wei, Xuan; Liao, Wangjun; Kutty, Shelby; Liao, Yulin; Bin, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    The intensity of left atrial spontaneous echo contrast (LASEC) by transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) has been proposed as an important variable in the stratification of thromboembolic risk, particularly in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). We hypothesized that the quantification of LASEC by ultrasound will improve its utility in predicting subsequent stroke events in patients with NVAF. Patients (n = 206) with definite NVAF receiving TEE were included for this prospective cohort study. Baseline clinical risk factors of stroke, CHADS2 score and CHA2DS2-Vasc, left atrial thrombus (LAT), the five-grades of LASEC and video intensity (VI) value of LASEC were measured. During 2 years follow-up, 20 patients (9.7%) developed stroke. VI value of LASEC in the patients with stroke was higher compared to patients without stroke (25.30 ± 3.61 vs. 8.65 ± 0.81, p < 0.001). On logistic regression analysis, LAT, qualitative LASEC, graded LASEC, VI value of LASEC and CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-Vasc score were independent predictors of stroke. Among them, the highest area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) in predicting stroke was VI value of LASEC (p < 0.05). These results show that quantification of LASEC by VI value is the most favorable predictor of stroke in patients with NVAF, and calls for improving the utility of LASEC in predicting subsequent stroke events. PMID:27277939

  16. Sudden Cardiac Risk Stratification with Electrocardiographic Indices - A Review on Computational Processing, Technology Transfer, and Scientific Evidence

    PubMed Central

    Gimeno-Blanes, Francisco J.; Blanco-Velasco, Manuel; Barquero-Pérez, Óscar; García-Alberola, Arcadi; Rojo-Álvarez, José L.

    2016-01-01

    Great effort has been devoted in recent years to the development of sudden cardiac risk predictors as a function of electric cardiac signals, mainly obtained from the electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis. But these prediction techniques are still seldom used in clinical practice, partly due to its limited diagnostic accuracy and to the lack of consensus about the appropriate computational signal processing implementation. This paper addresses a three-fold approach, based on ECG indices, to structure this review on sudden cardiac risk stratification. First, throughout the computational techniques that had been widely proposed for obtaining these indices in technical literature. Second, over the scientific evidence, that although is supported by observational clinical studies, they are not always representative enough. And third, via the limited technology transfer of academy-accepted algorithms, requiring further meditation for future systems. We focus on three families of ECG derived indices which are tackled from the aforementioned viewpoints, namely, heart rate turbulence (HRT), heart rate variability (HRV), and T-wave alternans. In terms of computational algorithms, we still need clearer scientific evidence, standardizing, and benchmarking, siting on advanced algorithms applied over large and representative datasets. New scenarios like electronic health recordings, big data, long-term monitoring, and cloud databases, will eventually open new frameworks to foresee suitable new paradigms in the near future. PMID:27014083

  17. Non-Rhabdomyosarcoma Soft Tissue Sarcomas in Children: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Analysis Validating COG Risk Stratifications

    SciTech Connect

    Waxweiler, Timothy V.; Rusthoven, Chad G.; Proper, Michelle S.; Cost, Carrye R.; Cost, Nicholas G.; Donaldson, Nathan; Garrington, Timothy; Greffe, Brian S.; Heare, Travis; Macy, Margaret E.; Liu, Arthur K.

    2015-06-01

    Purpose: Non-rhabdomyosarcoma soft tissue sarcomas (NRSTS) are a heterogeneous group of sarcomas that encompass over 35 histologies. With an incidence of ∼500 cases per year in the United States in those <20 years of age, NRSTS are rare and therefore difficult to study in pediatric populations. We used the large Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to validate the prognostic ability of the Children's Oncology Group (COG) risk classification system and to define patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. Methods and Materials: From SEER data from 1988 to 2007, we identified patients ≤18 years of age with NRSTS. Data for age, sex, year of diagnosis, race, registry, histology, grade, primary size, primary site, stage, radiation therapy, and survival outcomes were analyzed. Patients with nonmetastatic grossly resected low-grade tumors of any size or high-grade tumors ≤5 cm were considered low risk. Cases of nonmetastatic tumors that were high grade, >5 cm, or unresectable were considered intermediate risk. Patients with nodal or distant metastases were considered high risk. Results: A total of 941 patients met the review criteria. On univariate analysis, black race, malignant peripheral nerve sheath (MPNST) histology, tumors >5 cm, nonextremity primary, lymph node involvement, radiation therapy, and higher risk group were associated with significantly worse overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). On multivariate analysis, MPNST histology, chemotherapy-resistant histology, and higher risk group were significantly poor prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Compared to low-risk patients, intermediate patients showed poorer OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 6.08, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.53-10.47, P<.001) and CSS (HR: 6.27; 95% CI: 3.44-11.43, P<.001), and high-risk patients had the worst OS (HR: 13.35, 95% CI: 8.18-21.76, P<.001) and CSS (HR: 14.65, 95% CI: 8.49-25.28, P<.001). Conclusions: The current COG risk group

  18. Performance of 2014 NICE defibrillator implantation guidelines in heart failure risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Cubbon, Richard M; Witte, Klaus K; Kearney, Lorraine C; Gierula, John; Byrom, Rowenna; Paton, Maria; Sengupta, Anshuman; Patel, Peysh A; MN Walker, Andrew; Cairns, David A; Rajwani, Adil; Hall, Alistair S; Sapsford, Robert J; Kearney, Mark T

    2016-01-01

    Objective Define the real-world performance of recently updated National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (TA314) on implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) use in people with chronic heart failure. Methods Multicentre prospective cohort study of 1026 patients with stable chronic heart failure, associated with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤45% recruited in cardiology outpatient departments of four UK hospitals. We assessed the capacity of TA314 to identify patients at increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) or appropriate ICD shock. Results The overall risk of SCD or appropriate ICD shock was 2.1 events per 100 patient-years (95% CI 1.7 to 2.6). Patients meeting TA314 ICD criteria (31.1%) were 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.6 to 3.9) more likely to suffer SCD or appropriate ICD shock; they were also 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 2.2) more likely to die from non-cardiovascular causes and 1.6-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 2.3) more likely to die from progressive heart failure. Patients with diabetes not meeting TA314 criteria experienced comparable absolute risk of SCD or appropriate ICD shock to patients without diabetes who met TA314 criteria. Patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy not meeting TA314 criteria experienced comparable absolute risk of SCD or appropriate ICD shock to patients with non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy who met TA314 criteria. Conclusions TA314 can identify patients with reduced LVEF who are at increased relative risk of sudden death. Clinicians should also consider clinical context and the absolute risk of SCD when advising patients about the potential risks and benefits of ICD therapy. PMID:26857212

  19. Usefulness of semiquantitative analysis of dipyridamole-thallium-201 redistribution for improving risk stratification before vascular surgery

    SciTech Connect

    Levinson, J.R.; Boucher, C.A.; Coley, C.M.; Guiney, T.E.; Strauss, H.W.; Eagle, K.A. )

    1990-08-15

    Preoperative dipyridamole-thallium-201 scanning is sensitive in identifying patients prone to ischemic cardiac complications after vascular surgery, but most patients with redistribution do not have an event after surgery. Therefore, its positive predictive value is limited. To determine which patients with thallium redistribution are at highest risk, dipyridamole-thallium-201 images were interpreted semiquantitatively. Sixty-two consecutive patients with redistribution on preoperative dipyridamole-thallium-201 planar imaging studies were identified. Each thallium scan was then analyzed independently by 2 observers for the number of myocardial segments out of 15, the number of thallium views out of 3 and the number of coronary artery territories with redistribution. Seventeen patients (27%) had postoperative ischemic events, including unstable angina pectoris, ischemic pulmonary edema, myocardial infarction and cardiac death. Thallium predictors of ischemic operative complications included thallium redistribution greater than or equal to 4 myocardial segments (p = 0.03), greater than or equal to 2 of the 3 planar views (p = 0.005) and greater than or equal to 2 coronary territories (p = 0.007). No patient with redistribution in only 1 view had an ischemic event (0 of 15). Thus, determining the extent of redistribution by dipyridamole-thallium-201 scanning improves risk stratification before vascular surgery. Patients with greater numbers of myocardial segments and greater numbers of coronary territories showing thallium-201 redistribution are at higher risk for ischemic cardiac complications. In contrast, when the extent of thallium redistribution is limited, there is a lower risk despite the presence of redistribution.

  20. Risk Stratification in Atrial Fibrillation Patients – A Review Focused on Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Lombardi, Federico

    2012-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased mortality that is largely due to the severe co-morbidities of patients with this rhythm disturbance rather than to its electrocardiographic features. Available evidence indicated that ageing, heart failure and stroke are the most important predictors of all-cause mortality. Additional clinical parameters such as smoking, renal impairment, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease may also identify patients at risk. The prevention of thromboembolic events is based on oral anticoagulant therapy, which reduces the severity and mortality of ischaemic strokes but slightly increase the rate of haemorrhagic events. Most of the traditional risk stratifiers commonly used in patients in sinus rhythm such as New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and resting heart rate seem to be less effective in AF patients thus leaving to the physician judgment the main responsibility of identifying patients with an increased mortality risk. PMID:26835022

  1. Risk stratification in patients with non Q wave myocardial infarction: a role for thallium exercise testing.

    PubMed

    Brophy, J M; Kerouac, M

    1990-12-01

    The ability of maximal exercise thallium testing to stratify patients after non Q wave myocardial infarction was prospectively examined in 20 patients. Patients were enrolled in the study if there was no evidence of residual ischemia nor congestive heart failure during initial hospitalization. The thallium exercise test showed four patients to be at high risk, three of whom had successful revascularization. The remaining 16 patients were considered to be at low risk. There were no re-admissions for unstable angina, no myocardial infarctions and no deaths in the follow-up period (average 15 months). Thus patients with no evidence of early ischemia, no signs of left ventricular failure and a negative maximum thallium exercise test are at low risk following non Q wave myocardial infarction.

  2. Diagnosis, risk stratification and management of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and smoldering multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    van de Donk, N W C J; Mutis, T; Poddighe, P J; Lokhorst, H M; Zweegman, S

    2016-05-01

    Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is one of the most common premalignant disorders. IgG and IgA MGUS are precursor conditions of multiple myeloma (MM), whereas light-chain MGUS is a precursor condition of light-chain MM. Smoldering MM (SMM) is a precursor condition with higher tumor burden and higher risk of progression to symptomatic MM compared to MGUS. Assessment of the risk of progression of patients with asymptomatic monoclonal gammopathies is based on various factors including clonal burden, as well as biological characteristics, such as cytogenetic abnormalities and light-chain production. Several models have been constructed that are useful in daily practice for predicting risk of progression of MGUS or SMM. Importantly, the plasma cell clone may occasionally be responsible for severe organ damage through the production of a M-protein which deposits in tissues or has autoantibody activity. These disorders are rare and often require therapy directed at eradication of the underlying clone. Importantly, recent studies have shown that asymptomatic patients with a bone marrow plasma cell percentage ≥60%, free light-chain ratio ≥100, or >1 focal lesion on MRI (myeloma-defining events) have a 80% risk of developing symptomatic MM within 2 years. These patients are now considered to have MM requiring therapy, similar to patients with symptomatic disease. In this review, we provide an overview of the new diagnostic criteria of the monoclonal gammopathies and discuss risk of progression to active MM. We also provide recommendations for the management of patients with MGUS and SMM including risk-adapted follow-up. PMID:27161311

  3. Diagnosis, risk stratification and management of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and smoldering multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    van de Donk, N W C J; Mutis, T; Poddighe, P J; Lokhorst, H M; Zweegman, S

    2016-05-01

    Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is one of the most common premalignant disorders. IgG and IgA MGUS are precursor conditions of multiple myeloma (MM), whereas light-chain MGUS is a precursor condition of light-chain MM. Smoldering MM (SMM) is a precursor condition with higher tumor burden and higher risk of progression to symptomatic MM compared to MGUS. Assessment of the risk of progression of patients with asymptomatic monoclonal gammopathies is based on various factors including clonal burden, as well as biological characteristics, such as cytogenetic abnormalities and light-chain production. Several models have been constructed that are useful in daily practice for predicting risk of progression of MGUS or SMM. Importantly, the plasma cell clone may occasionally be responsible for severe organ damage through the production of a M-protein which deposits in tissues or has autoantibody activity. These disorders are rare and often require therapy directed at eradication of the underlying clone. Importantly, recent studies have shown that asymptomatic patients with a bone marrow plasma cell percentage ≥60%, free light-chain ratio ≥100, or >1 focal lesion on MRI (myeloma-defining events) have a 80% risk of developing symptomatic MM within 2 years. These patients are now considered to have MM requiring therapy, similar to patients with symptomatic disease. In this review, we provide an overview of the new diagnostic criteria of the monoclonal gammopathies and discuss risk of progression to active MM. We also provide recommendations for the management of patients with MGUS and SMM including risk-adapted follow-up.

  4. Adrenomedullin for Risk Stratification of Emergency Patients With Nonspecific Complaints: An Interventional Multicenter Pilot Study.

    PubMed

    Nickel, Christian Hans; Messmer, Anna Sarah; Ghanim, Leyla; Ilsemann-Karakoumis, Julia; Giersdorf, Sven; Hertel, Sabine; Ernst, Susanne; Geigy, Nicolas; Bingisser, Roland

    2016-01-01

    Patients with nonspecific complaints (NSC) presenting to the emergency department (ED) are at risk of life-threatening conditions. New stress biomarkers such as the midregional portion of adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) promise to support decision-making. This study tested the following hypotheses: biomarker-assisted disposition of patients with NSC will not increase mortality. Second, discharge from the ED will increase if clinical risk assessment is combined with low MR-proADM levels. Third, inappropriate disposition to a lower level of care will decrease, if clinical assessment is combined with high MR-proADM levels, and fourth that this algorithm is feasible in the ED setting. Prospective, multicenter, randomized, controlled interventional feasibility study with a 30-day follow-up, including patients with NSC. Patients were randomly assigned to either the standard group (decision-making solely based on clinical assessment) or the Novum group (biomarker-assisted). Regarding disposition, patients were assigned to 1 of 3 risk classes: high-risk (admission to hospital), intermediate risk (community geriatric hospital), and low-risk patients (discharge). In the Novum group, in addition to clinical risk assessment, the information of the MR-proADM level was used. Unless there were overruling criteria, patients were transferred or discharged according to the risk assessment. Primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Secondary endpoints were comparisons of patient disposition and related mortality rates, ED, and hospital length of stay and readmission. The final study cohort consisted of 398 patients (210 in the Standard group and 188 in the Novum group). Overruling, that is, disposition not according to the result of the proposed algorithm occurred in 51 cases. Baseline characteristics between Standard and Novum groups were similar. The mortality rate in the Novum group was 4.3%, as compared to the Standard group mortality of 6.2%, which was not significantly different

  5. Stratification and monitoring of natalizumab-associated progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy risk: recommendations from an expert group

    PubMed Central

    McGuigan, C; Craner, M; Guadagno, J; Kapoor, R; Mazibrada, G; Molyneux, P; Nicholas, R; Palace, J; Pearson, O R; Rog, D; Young, C A

    2016-01-01

    The use of natalizumab for highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) is influenced by the occurrence of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). Through measurement of the anti-JCV antibody index, and in combination with the presence or absence of other known risk factors, it may be possible to stratify patients with MS according to their risk of developing PML during treatment with natalizumab and detect early suspected PML using MRI including a diffusion-weighted imaging sequence. This paper describes a practical consensus guideline for treating neurologists, based on current evidence, for the introduction into routine clinical practice of anti-JCV antibody index testing of immunosuppressant-naïve patients with MS, either currently being treated with, or initiating, natalizumab, based on their anti-JCV antibody status. Recommendations for the frequency and type of MRI screening in patients with varying index-associated PML risks are also discussed. This consensus paper presents a simple and pragmatic algorithm to support the introduction of anti-JCV antibody index testing and MRI monitoring into standard PML safety protocols, in order to allow some JCV positive patients who wish to begin or continue natalizumab treatment to be managed with a more individualised analysis of their PML risk. PMID:26492930

  6. Thrombotic risk stratification using computational modeling in patients with coronary artery aneurysms following Kawasaki disease

    PubMed Central

    Sengupta, Dibyendu; Kahn, Andrew M.; Kung, Ethan; Moghadam, Mahdi Esmaily; Shirinsky, Olga; Lyskina, Galina A.; Burns, Jane C.; Marsden, Alison L.

    2016-01-01

    Kawasaki disease (KD) is the leading cause of acquired heart disease in children and can result in life-threatening coronary artery aneurysms in up to 25 % of patients. These aneurysms put patients at risk of thrombus formation, myocardial infarction, and sudden death. Clinicians must therefore decide which patients should be treated with anticoagulant medication, and/or surgical or percutaneous intervention. Current recommendations regarding initiation of anticoagulant therapy are based on anatomy alone with historical data suggesting that patients with aneurysms ≥8 mm are at greatest risk of thrombosis. Given the multitude of variables that influence thrombus formation, we postulated that hemodynamic data derived from patient-specific simulations would more accurately predict risk of thrombosis than maximum diameter alone. Patient-specific blood flow simulations were performed on five KD patients with aneurysms and one KD patient with normal coronary arteries. Key hemodynamic and geometric parameters, including wall shear stress, particle residence time, and shape indices, were extracted from the models and simulations and compared with clinical outcomes. Preliminary fluid structure interaction simulations with radial expansion were performed, revealing modest differences in wall shear stress compared to the rigid wall case. Simulations provide compelling evidence that hemodynamic parameters may be a more accurate predictor of thrombotic risk than aneurysm diameter alone and motivate the need for follow-up studies with a larger cohort. These results suggest that a clinical index incorporating hemodynamic information be used in the future to select patients for anticoagulant therapy. PMID:24722951

  7. Comparison of nonlinear methods symbolic dynamics, detrended fluctuation, and Poincaré plot analysis in risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Truebner, Sandra; Goernig, Matthias; Figulla, Hans Reiner; Schirdewan, Alexander

    2007-03-01

    Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) has an incidence of about 20/100 000 new cases per annum and accounts for nearly 10 000 deaths per year in the United States. Approximately 36% of patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) suffer from cardiac death within five years after diagnosis. Currently applied methods for an early risk prediction in DCM patients are rather insufficient. The objective of this study was to investigate the suitability of short-term nonlinear methods symbolic dynamics (STSD), detrended fluctuation (DFA), and Poincaré plot analysis (PPA) for risk stratification in these patients. From 91 DCM patients and 30 healthy subjects (REF), heart rate and blood pressure variability (HRV, BPV), STSD, DFA, and PPA were analyzed. Measures from BPV analysis, DFA, and PPA revealed highly significant differences (p<0.0011) discriminating REF and DCM. For risk stratification in DCM patients, four parameters from BPV analysis, STSD, and PPA revealed significant differences between low and high risk (maximum sensitivity: 90%, specificity: 90%). These results suggest that STSD and PPA are useful nonlinear methods for enhanced risk stratification in DCM patients.

  8. Impact of Denervated Myocardium on Improving Risk Stratification for Sudden Cardiac Death

    PubMed Central

    Cain, Michael E.

    2014-01-01

    Between 184,000 and 462,000 Americans die suddenly each year. Fifty percent to 70% of these deaths are due to ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation (VT/VF). We tested whether hibernating myocardium or myocardial sympathetic denervation identifies patients at high-risk for developing VT/VF independently of ejection fraction (EF). Positron emission tomography (PET) was used to quantify myocardial sympathetic denervation (11C-meta-hydroxyephedrine [11C-HED]), perfusion (13N-ammonia), and viability (insulin-stimulated 18F-2-deoxyglucose [18FDG]) in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy (EF < 35%) eligible for a primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). The primary end-point was sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) defined as arrhythmic death or ICD discharge for VT/VF > 240 bpm. Volumes of total denervated (P = .001) and viable denervated myocardium (11C-HED-18FDG mismatch, P = .03) predicted SCA, whereas hibernating and infarcted myocardium did not. Multivariate analysis identified four independent predictors of SCA: denervated myocardium > 37.6% of left ventricule (LV), LV end-diastolic volume > 98 mL/m2, creatinine level > 1.49 mg/dL, and no angiotensin- inhibition therapy. Denervated myocardium had a hazard ratio of 3.5 for SCA (10.3%/year vs. 3.0%/year, p=0.001). Absence of all four factors predicted low risk (44% of cohort; SCA <1%/y) whereas two or more factors identified subjects at high-risk (20% of cohort; SCA 12%/y). Denervated myocardium quantified using PET strongly predicts risk of SCA, and is independent of EF, infarct volume, and other clinical variables. PMID:25125727

  9. Impact of denervated myocardium on improving risk stratification for sudden cardiac death.

    PubMed

    Cain, Michael E

    2014-01-01

    Between 184,000 and 462,000 Americans die suddenly each year. Fifty percent to 70% of these deaths are due to ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation (VT/VF). We tested whether hibernating myocardium or myocardial sympathetic denervation identifies patients at high-risk for developing VT/VF independently of ejection fraction (EF). Positron emission tomography (PET) was used to quantify myocardial sympathetic denervation ((11)C-meta-hydroxyephedrine [(11)C-HED]), perfusion ((13)N-ammonia), and viability (insulin-stimulated (18)F-2-deoxyglucose [(18)FDG]) in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy (EF < 35%) eligible for a primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). The primary end-point was sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) defined as arrhythmic death or ICD discharge for VT/VF > 240 bpm. Volumes of total denervated (P = .001) and viable denervated myocardium ((11)C-HED-(18)FDG mismatch, P = .03) predicted SCA, whereas hibernating and infarcted myocardium did not. Multivariate analysis identified four independent predictors of SCA: denervated myocardium > 37.6% of left ventricule (LV), LV end-diastolic volume > 98 mL/m(2), creatinine level > 1.49 mg/dL, and no angiotensin- inhibition therapy. Denervated myocardium had a hazard ratio of 3.5 for SCA (10.3%/year vs. 3.0%/year, p=0.001). Absence of all four factors predicted low risk (44% of cohort; SCA <1%/y) whereas two or more factors identified subjects at high-risk (20% of cohort; SCA 12%/y). Denervated myocardium quantified using PET strongly predicts risk of SCA, and is independent of EF, infarct volume, and other clinical variables.

  10. Risk Stratification by 24-Hour Ambulatory Blood Pressure and Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in 5322 Subjects From 11 Populations

    PubMed Central

    Boggia, José; Thijs, Lutgarde; Li, Yan; Hansen, Tine W.; Kikuya, Masahiro; Björklund-Bodegård, Kristina; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Dolan, Eamon; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Tikhonoff, Valérie; Malyutina, Sofia; Casiglia, Edoardo; Nikitin, Yuri; Lind, Lars; Schwedt, Emma; Sandoya, Edgardo; Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina; Filipovský, Jan; Imai, Yutaka; Wang, Jiguang; Ibsen, Hans; O’Brien, Eoin; Staessen, Jan A.

    2013-01-01

    No previous study addressed whether in the general population estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR [Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula]) adds to the prediction of cardiovascular outcome over and beyond ambulatory blood pressure. We recorded health outcomes in 5322 subjects (median age, 51.8 years; 43.1% women) randomly recruited from 11 populations, who had baseline measurements of 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure (ABP24) and eGFR. We computed hazard ratios using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Median follow-up was 9.3 years. In fully adjusted models, which included both ABP24 and eGFR, ABP24 predicted (P≤0.008) both total (513 deaths) and cardiovascular (206) mortality; eGFR only predicted cardiovascular mortality (P=0.012). Furthermore, ABP24 predicted (P≤0.0056) fatal combined with nonfatal events as a result of all cardiovascular causes (555 events), cardiac disease (335 events), or stroke (218 events), whereas eGFR only predicted the composite cardiovascular end point and stroke (P≤0.035). The interaction terms between ABP24 and eGFR were all nonsignificant (P≥0.082). For cardiovascular mortality, the composite cardiovascular end point, and stroke, ABP24 added 0.35%, 1.17%, and 1.00% to the risk already explained by cohort, sex, age, body mass index, smoking and drinking, previous cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and antihypertensive drug treatment. Adding eGFR explained an additional 0.13%, 0.09%, and 0.14%, respectively. Sensitivity analyses stratified for ethnicity, sex, and the presence of hypertension or chronic kidney disease (eGFR <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2) were confirmatory. In conclusion, in the general population, eGFR predicts fewer end points than ABP24. Relative to ABP24, eGFR is as an additive, not a multiplicative, risk factor and refines risk stratification 2- to 14-fold less. PMID:23172928

  11. A novel integrated cytogenetic and genomic classification refines risk stratification in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

    PubMed

    Moorman, Anthony V; Enshaei, Amir; Schwab, Claire; Wade, Rachel; Chilton, Lucy; Elliott, Alannah; Richardson, Stacey; Hancock, Jeremy; Kinsey, Sally E; Mitchell, Christopher D; Goulden, Nicholas; Vora, Ajay; Harrison, Christine J

    2014-08-28

    Recent genomic studies have provided a refined genetic map of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and increased the number of potential prognostic markers. Therefore, we integrated copy-number alteration data from the 8 most commonly deleted genes, subordinately, with established chromosomal abnormalities to derive a 2-tier genetic classification. The classification was developed using 809 ALL97/99 patients and validated using 742 United Kingdom (UK)ALL2003 patients. Good-risk (GR) genetic features included ETV6-RUNX1, high hyperdiploidy, normal copy-number status for all 8 genes, isolated deletions affecting ETV6/PAX5/BTG1, and ETV6 deletions with a single additional deletion of BTG1/PAX5/CDKN2A/B. All other genetic features were classified as poor risk (PR). Three-quarters of UKALL2003 patients had a GR genetic profile and a significantly improved event-free survival (EFS) (94%) compared with patients with a PR genetic profile (79%). This difference was driven by a lower relapse rate (4% vs 17%), was seen across all patient subgroups, and was independent of other risk factors. Even genetic GR patients with minimal residual disease (>0.01%) at day 29 had an EFS in excess of 90%. In conclusion, the integration of genomic and cytogenetic data defines 2 subgroups with distinct responses to treatment and identifies a large subset of children suitable for treatment deintensification.

  12. Artificial Neural Networks and risk stratification models in Emergency Departments: The policy maker's perspective.

    PubMed

    Casagranda, Ivo; Costantino, Giorgio; Falavigna, Greta; Furlan, Raffaello; Ippoliti, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    The primary goal of Emergency Department (ED) physicians is to discriminate between individuals at low risk, who can be safely discharged, and patients at high risk, who require prompt hospitalization. The problem of correctly classifying patients is an issue involving not only clinical but also managerial aspects, since reducing the rate of admission of patients to EDs could dramatically cut costs. Nevertheless, a trade-off might arise due to the need to find a balance between economic interests and the health conditions of patients. This work considers patients in EDs after a syncope event and presents a comparative analysis between two models: a multivariate logistic regression model, as proposed by the scientific community to stratify the expected risk of severe outcomes in the short and long run, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), an innovative model. The analysis highlights differences in correct classification of severe outcomes at 10 days (98.30% vs. 94.07%) and 1 year (97.67% vs. 96.40%), pointing to the superiority of Neural Networks. According to the results, there is also a significant superiority of ANNs in terms of false negatives both at 10 days (3.70% vs. 5.93%) and at 1 year (2.33% vs. 10.07%). However, considering the false positives, the adoption of ANNs would cause an increase in hospital costs, highlighting the potential trade-off which policy makers might face.

  13. Advances in the translational genomics of neuroblastoma: From improving risk stratification and revealing novel biology to identifying actionable genomic alterations.

    PubMed

    Bosse, Kristopher R; Maris, John M

    2016-01-01

    Neuroblastoma is an embryonal malignancy that commonly affects young children and is remarkably heterogenous in its malignant potential. Recently, the genetic basis of neuroblastoma has come into focus and not only has catalyzed a more comprehensive understanding of neuroblastoma tumorigenesis but also has revealed novel oncogenic vulnerabilities that are being therapeutically leveraged. Neuroblastoma is a model pediatric solid tumor in its use of recurrent genomic alterations, such as high-level MYCN (v-myc avian myelocytomatosis viral oncogene neuroblastoma-derived homolog) amplification, for risk stratification. Given the relative paucity of recurrent, activating, somatic point mutations or gene fusions in primary neuroblastoma tumors studied at initial diagnosis, innovative treatment approaches beyond small molecules targeting mutated or dysregulated kinases will be required moving forward to achieve noticeable improvements in overall patient survival. However, the clonally acquired, oncogenic aberrations in relapsed neuroblastomas are currently being defined and may offer an opportunity to improve patient outcomes with molecularly targeted therapy directed toward aberrantly regulated pathways in relapsed disease. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge about neuroblastoma genetics and genomics, highlighting the improved prognostication and potential therapeutic opportunities that have arisen from recent advances in understanding germline predisposition, recurrent segmental chromosomal alterations, somatic point mutations and translocations, and clonal evolution in relapsed neuroblastoma.

  14. Cancer risks: Strategies for elimination

    SciTech Connect

    Bannasch, P.

    1987-01-01

    This book deals with the possibilities for identifying and eliminating cancer risk factors. The current state of knowledge on the detection, assessment and elimination of chemical, physical (radiation), and biological (viruses) risk factors are comprehensively presented in 15 contributions. Chemical risk factors resulting from smoking and environmental contamination are given special attention. The coverage of cancer risks by radiation includes some of the consequences of the Chernobyl disaster. Finally, the discussion of the possible risks that certain viruses hold for cancer in man is intended to further the development of vaccinations against these viral infections. The information is directed not only at specialists, but also at a wider interested audience. Its primary aim is to convey established findings that are already being used for cancer prevention. Furthermore, the book aims to promote more intense research in the field of primary cancer prevention. Contents: General aspects; chemical carcinogens: Risk assessment; chemical carcinogens: Primary prevention; physical carcinogens - Oncogenic viruses and subject index.

  15. National Veterans Health Administration inpatient risk stratification models for hospital-acquired acute kidney injury

    PubMed Central

    Cronin, Robert M; VanHouten, Jacob P; Siew, Edward D; Eden, Svetlana K; Fihn, Stephan D; Nielson, Christopher D; Peterson, Josh F; Baker, Clifton R; Ikizler, T Alp; Speroff, Theodore

    2015-01-01

    Objective Hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (HA-AKI) is a potentially preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. Identifying high-risk patients prior to the onset of kidney injury is a key step towards AKI prevention. Materials and Methods A national retrospective cohort of 1,620,898 patient hospitalizations from 116 Veterans Affairs hospitals was assembled from electronic health record (EHR) data collected from 2003 to 2012. HA-AKI was defined at stage 1+, stage 2+, and dialysis. EHR-based predictors were identified through logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) regression, and random forests, and pair-wise comparisons between each were made. Calibration and discrimination metrics were calculated using 50 bootstrap iterations. In the final models, we report odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals, and importance rankings for predictor variables to evaluate their significance. Results The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the different model outcomes ranged from 0.746 to 0.758 in stage 1+, 0.714 to 0.720 in stage 2+, and 0.823 to 0.825 in dialysis. Logistic regression had the best AUC in stage 1+ and dialysis. Random forests had the best AUC in stage 2+ but the least favorable calibration plots. Multiple risk factors were significant in our models, including some nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, blood pressure medications, antibiotics, and intravenous fluids given during the first 48 h of admission. Conclusions This study demonstrated that, although all the models tested had good discrimination, performance characteristics varied between methods, and the random forests models did not calibrate as well as the lasso or logistic regression models. In addition, novel modifiable risk factors were explored and found to be significant. PMID:26104740

  16. Can Ambulatory Blood Pressure Variability Contribute to Individual Cardiovascular Risk Stratification?

    PubMed Central

    Magdás, Annamária; Szilágyi, László; Incze, Alexandru

    2016-01-01

    Objective. The aim of this study is to define the normal range for average real variability (ARV) and to establish whether it can be considered as an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Methods. In this observational study, 110 treated hypertensive patients were included and admitted for antihypertensive treatment adjustment. Circadian blood pressure was recorded with validated devices. Blood pressure variability (BPV) was assessed according to the ARV definition. Based on their variability, patients were classified into low, medium, and high variability groups using the fuzzy c-means algorithm. To assess cardiovascular risk, blood samples were collected. Characteristics of the groups were compared by ANOVA tests. Results. Low variability was defined as ARV below 9.8 mmHg (32 patients), medium as 9.8–12.8 mmHg (48 patients), and high variability above 12.8 mmHg (30 patients). Mean systolic blood pressure was 131.2 ± 16.7, 135.0 ± 12.1, and 141.5 ± 11.4 mmHg in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0113). Glomerular filtration rate was 78.6 ± 29.3, 74.8 ± 26.4, and 62.7 ± 23.2 mL/min/1.73 m2 in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0261). Conclusion. Increased values of average real variability represent an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Therefore, reducing BP variability might be as important as achieving optimal BP levels, but there is need for further studies to define a widely acceptable threshold value. PMID:27247614

  17. Procedures for risk-stratification of lung cancer using buccal nanocytology

    PubMed Central

    Subramanian, H.; Viswanathan, P.; Cherkezyan, L.; Iyengar, R.; Rozhok, S.; Verleye, M.; Derbas, J.; Czarnecki, J.; Roy, H. K.; Backman, V.

    2016-01-01

    Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths in the U.S. with survival dramatically depending on stage at diagnosis. We had earlier reported that nanocytology of buccal cells can accurately risk-stratify smokers for the presence of early and late-stage lung cancer. To translate the technique into clinical practice, standardization of operating procedures is necessary to consistently yield precise and repeatable results. Here, we develop and validate simple, robust, and easily implementable procedures for specimen collection, processing, etc. in addition to a commercially-viable instrument prototype. Results of this work enable translation of the technology from academic lab to physicians’ office.

  18. Procedures for risk-stratification of lung cancer using buccal nanocytology

    PubMed Central

    Subramanian, H.; Viswanathan, P.; Cherkezyan, L.; Iyengar, R.; Rozhok, S.; Verleye, M.; Derbas, J.; Czarnecki, J.; Roy, H. K.; Backman, V.

    2016-01-01

    Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths in the U.S. with survival dramatically depending on stage at diagnosis. We had earlier reported that nanocytology of buccal cells can accurately risk-stratify smokers for the presence of early and late-stage lung cancer. To translate the technique into clinical practice, standardization of operating procedures is necessary to consistently yield precise and repeatable results. Here, we develop and validate simple, robust, and easily implementable procedures for specimen collection, processing, etc. in addition to a commercially-viable instrument prototype. Results of this work enable translation of the technology from academic lab to physicians’ office. PMID:27699138

  19. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: non-invasive investigation and risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Dyson, J K; McPherson, S; Anstee, Q M

    2013-12-01

    Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) encompasses a histological spectrum of liver disease, from simple steatosis through to cirrhosis. As the worldwide rates of obesity have increased, NAFLD has become the commonest cause of liver disease in many developed countries, affecting up to a third of the population. The majority of patients have simple steatosis that carries a relatively benign prognosis. However, a significant minority have non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, and have increased liver related and cardiovascular mortality. Identifying those at risk of progressive disease is crucial. Liver biopsy remains the gold standard investigation for assessing stage of disease but its invasive nature makes it impractical for widespread use as a prognostic tool. Non-invasive tools for diagnosis and disease staging are required, reserving liver biopsy for those patients where it offers clinically relevant additional information. This review discusses the non-invasive modalities available for assessing steatosis, steatohepatitis and fibrosis. We propose a pragmatic approach for the assessment of patients with NAFLD to identify those at high risk of progressive disease who require referral to specialist services. PMID:23940130

  20. Pulmonary embolism risk stratification by European Society of Cardiology is associated with recurrent venous thromboembolism: Findings from a long-term follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Shuai; Zhai, Zhenguo; Yang, Yuanhua; Zhu, Jianguo; Kuang, Tuguang; Xie, Wanmu; Yang, Suqiao; Liu, Fangfang; Gong, Juanni; Shen, Ying H; Wang, Chen

    2016-01-01

    Venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence carries significant mortality and morbidity. Accurate risk assessment and effective treatment for patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is important for VTE recurrence prevention. We examined the association of VTE recurrence with risk stratification and PE treatment. We enrolled 627 patients with a first episode of confirmed PE. Baseline clinical information was collected. PE severity was assessed by the European Society of Cardiology's (ESC) risk stratification, the simplified PE Severity Index (sPESI) and the Qanadli score of clot burden. Patients were followed for 1-5 years. The cumulative recurrent VTE and all-cause death were documented. The association between recurrent VTE and risk factors was analyzed. The cumulative incidences of recurrent VTE were 4.5%, 7.3%, and 13.9% at 1, 2, and 5 years of follow-up, respectively. The VTE recurrence was associated with higher (high- and intermediate-) risk stratification predicted by ESC model (HR 1.838, 95% CI 1.318-2.571, P<0.001), as well as with unprovoked PE (HR 2.809, 95% CI 1.650-4.781, P b 0.001) and varicose veins (HR 4.747, 95% CI 2.634-8.557, P<0.001). The recurrence was negatively associated with longer (≥6 months) anticoagulation (HR 0.473, 95% CI 0.285-0.787, P=0.004), especially in patients with higher risk (HR 0.394, 95% CI 0.211-0.736, P=0.003) and unprovoked PE (HR 0.248, 95% CI 0.122-0.504, P<0.001). ESC high-risk and intermediate-risk PE, unprovoked PE and varicose veins increase recurrence risk. Longer anticoagulation treatment reduces recurrence, especially in higher risk and unprovoked PE patients.

  1. Radioiodine therapy for thyroid cancer in the era of risk stratification and alternative targeted therapies.

    PubMed

    Pryma, Daniel A; Mandel, Susan J

    2014-09-01

    Differentiated thyroid cancers are typically iodine-avid and can be effectively treated with radioiodine. In most patients, radioiodine treatment is done for ablation of residual tissue, and in these cases the focus should be on using the minimum effective dose. Adjuvant therapy can be done to reduce the risk of recurrence, but optimal patient selection and dose are unclear. Patients with advanced disease benefit most from treatment with the maximum-tolerated dose. Recent research has focused on better patient selection and reduced radioiodine doses for remnant ablation. There are emerging targeted therapeutic approaches in patients who are appropriately shown to have iodine-refractory disease, with 1 drug approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Numerous trials are ongoing to assess targeted therapeutics alone or in combination with radioiodine.

  2. Risk stratification, perioperative and periprocedural management of the patient receiving anticoagulant therapy.

    PubMed

    Oprea, Adriana D; Noto, Christopher J; Halaszynski, Thomas M

    2016-11-01

    As a result of the aging US population and the subsequent increase in the prevalence of coronary disease and atrial fibrillation, therapeutic use of anticoagulants has increased. Perioperative and periprocedural management of anticoagulated patients has become routine for anesthesiologists, who frequently mediate communication between the prescribing physician and the surgeon and assess the risks of both thromboembolic complications and hemorrhage. Data from randomized clinical trials on perioperative management of antithrombotic therapy are lacking. Therefore, clinical judgment is typically needed regarding decisions to continue, discontinue, bridge, or resume anticoagulation and regarding the time points when these events should occur in the perioperative period. In this review, we will discuss the most commonly used anticoagulants used in outpatient settings and discuss their management in the perioperative period. Special considerations for regional anesthesia and interventional pain procedures will also be reviewed. PMID:27687455

  3. Development of a Risk Stratification System to Guide Treatment for Female Germ Cell Tumors

    PubMed Central

    Meisel, Jane L.; Woo, Kaitlin M.; Sudarsan, Nora; Eng, Jana; Patil, Sujata; Jacobsen, Erin P.; Murali, Rajmohan; Gardner, Ginger J.; Bosl, George J.; Aghajanian, Carol; Feldman, Darren R.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Due to their rarity, little is known about prognostic factors in female germ cell tumors (GCTs) or outcomes following systemic therapy. Management is largely based on studies of male GCT and epithelial ovarian cancer. Methods Chart review was performed for all females with GCT seen at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) from 1990 to 2012. Patients receiving chemotherapy were stratified using a modification of the male IGCCCG risk system, and the classifier was correlated with outcome. Results Of 93 patients, 92 (99%) underwent primary surgery and 85 (92%) received chemotherapy. Modified IGCCCG classification was significantly associated with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), both when applied preoperatively and pre-chemotherapy (p<0.001 for all four analyses). Progression after initial chemotherapy (n=29) was detected by imaging in 14 (48%) patients, by serum tumor markers in 6 (21%) patients, and by multiple methods in the rest. Seven (29%) of 24 patients treated with salvage chemotherapy achieved long-term PFS, including 4/6 who received high-dose chemotherapy (HDCT) as initial salvage versus 3/16 treated with other initial salvage regimens. The estimated 3-year OS rate was 84% (95% CI, 76-92%), with a trend favoring dysgerminoma over non-dysgerminoma histologies (p=0.12). Conclusions Modified IGCCCG classification was prognostic for female GCT patients in this cohort and identified a poor-risk group who may benefit from more intensive first-line chemotherapy. Both imaging and tumor marker evaluation were important in identifying relapses after first-line chemotherapy. The majority of long-term remissions with salvage therapy were achieved with initial salvage HDCT. PMID:26115974

  4. A Simple Risk Stratification for Time to Development of Sight-Threatening Diabetic Retinopathy

    PubMed Central

    Stratton, Irene M.; Aldington, Stephen J.; Taylor, David J.; Adler, Amanda I.; Scanlon, Peter H.

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE The American Diabetes Association and the English NHS Diabetic Eye Screening Program recommend annual screening for diabetic retinopathy (DR) with referral to ophthalmology clinics of patients with sight-threatening DR (STDR). Using only longitudinal data from retinal photographs in the population-based NHS Diabetic Eye Screening Program in Gloucestershire, we developed a simple means to estimate risk of STDR. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS From 2005, 14,554 patients with no DR or mild nonproliferative DR only at two consecutive annual digital photographic screenings were categorized by the presence of DR in neither, one, or both eyes at each screening and were followed for a further median 2.8 years. RESULTS Of 7,246 with no DR at either screening, 120 progressed to STDR, equivalent to an annual rate of 0.7%. Of 1,778 with no DR in either eye at first screening and in one eye at second screening, 80 progressed to STDR, equivalent to an annual rate of 1.9% and to a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.9 (95% CI 2.2–3.8) compared with those with no DR. Of 1,159 with background DR in both eyes at both screenings, 299 progressed to STDR equivalent to an annual rate of 11% and an HR of 18.2 (14.7–22.5) compared with individuals with no DR. CONCLUSIONS Combining the results from 2 consecutive years of photographic screening enables estimation of the risk of future development of STDR. In countries with systematic screening programs, these results could inform decisions about screening frequency. PMID:23150285

  5. Identifying Unique Versus Shared Pre- and Perinatal Risk Factors for ASD and ADHD Using a Simplex-Multiplex Stratification.

    PubMed

    Oerlemans, Anoek M; Burmanje, Marlot J; Franke, Barbara; Buitelaar, Jan K; Hartman, Catharina A; Rommelse, Nanda N J

    2016-07-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) frequently co-occur. Besides shared genetic factors, pre- and perinatal risk factors (PPFs) may determine if ASD, ADHD, or the combination of both disorders becomes manifest. This study aimed to test shared and unique involvement of PPFs for ASD and ADHD, using an approach that stratifies the sample into affected/unaffected offspring and single-incidence (SPX) versus multi-incidence (MPX) families. Pre- perinatal data based on retrospective parent-report were collected in 288 children (71 % males) from 31 SPX and 59 MPX ASD families, 476 children (65 % males) from 31 SPX and 171 MPX ADHD families, and 408 control children (42 % males). Except for large family size and more firstborns amongst affected offspring, no shared PFFs were identified for ASD and ADHD. PPFs predominantly related to ASD (maternal infections and suboptimal condition at birth) were more often reported in affected than unaffected siblings. PPFs associated with ADHD (low parental age, maternal diseases, smoking and stress) were shared between affected and unaffected siblings. Firstborn-ship was more frequent in SPX than MPX ASD probands. Our results suggest that the co-morbidity of ASD and ADHD is not likely explained by shared PPFs. Instead, PPFs might play a crucial role in the developmental pathways leading up to either disorder. PPFs in ADHD appear to index an increased shared risk, whereas in ASD PPFs possibly have a more determining role in the disorder. SPX-MPX stratification detected possible etiological differences in ASD families, but provided no deeper insight in the role of PPFs in ADHD.

  6. TP53 Mutational Status Is a Potential Marker for Risk Stratification in Wilms Tumour with Diffuse Anaplasia

    PubMed Central

    Chagtai, Tasnim; Popov, Sergey D.; Sebire, Neil J.; Vujanic, Gordan; Perlman, Elizabeth; Anderson, James R.; Grundy, Paul; Dome, Jeffrey S.; Pritchard-Jones, Kathy

    2014-01-01

    Purpose The presence of diffuse anaplasia in Wilms tumours (DAWT) is associated with TP53 mutations and poor outcome. As patients receive intensified treatment, we sought to identify whether TP53 mutational status confers additional prognostic information. Patients and Methods We studied 40 patients with DAWT with anaplasia in the tissue from which DNA was extracted and analysed for TP53 mutations and 17p loss. The majority of cases were profiled by copy number (n = 32) and gene expression (n = 36) arrays. TP53 mutational status was correlated with patient event-free and overall survival, genomic copy number instability and gene expression profiling. Results From the 40 cases, 22 (55%) had TP53 mutations (2 detected only after deep-sequencing), 20 of which also had 17p loss (91%); 18 (45%) cases had no detectable mutation but three had 17p loss. Tumours with TP53 mutations and/or 17p loss (n = 25) had an increased risk of recurrence as a first event (p = 0.03, hazard ratio (HR), 3.89; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26–16.0) and death (p = 0.04, HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.36–31.7) compared to tumours lacking TP53 abnormalities. DAWT carrying TP53 mutations showed increased copy number alterations compared to those with wild-type, suggesting a more unstable genome (p = 0.03). These tumours showed deregulation of genes associated with cell cycle and DNA repair biological processes. Conclusion This study provides evidence that TP53 mutational analysis improves risk stratification in DAWT. This requires validation in an independent cohort before clinical use as a biomarker. PMID:25313908

  7. New pattern-based personalized risk stratification system for endocervical adenocarcinoma with important clinical implications and surgical outcome.

    PubMed

    Roma, Andres A; Mistretta, Toni-Ann; Diaz De Vivar, Andrea; Park, Kay J; Alvarado-Cabrero, Isabel; Rasty, Golnar; Chanona-Vilchis, Jose G; Mikami, Yoshiki; Hong, Sung R; Teramoto, Norihiro; Ali-Fehmi, Rouba; Barbuto, Denise; Rutgers, Joanne K L; Silva, Elvio G

    2016-04-01

    We present a recently introduced three tier pattern-based histopathologic system to stratify endocervical adenocarcinoma (EAC) that better correlates with lymph node (LN) metastases than FIGO staging alone, and has the advantage of safely predicting node-negative disease in a large proportion of EAC patients. The system consists of stratifying EAC into one of three patterns: pattern A tumors characterized by well-demarcated glands frequently forming clusters or groups with relative lobular architecture and lacking destructive stromal invasion or lymphovascular invasion (LVI), pattern B tumors demonstrating localized destructive invasion (small clusters or individual tumor cells within desmoplastic stroma often arising from pattern A glands), and pattern C tumors with diffusely infiltrative glands and associated desmoplastic response. Three hundred and fifty-two cases were included; mean follow-up 52.8 months. Seventy-three patients (21%) had pattern A tumors; all were stage I and there were no LN metastases or recurrences. Pattern B was seen in 90 tumors (26%); all were stage I and LVI was seen in 24 cases (26.6%). Nodal disease was found in only 4 (4.4%) pattern B tumors (one IA2, two IB1, one IB not further specified (NOS)), each of which showed LVI. Pattern C was found in 189 cases (54%), 117 had LVI (61.9%) and 17% were stage II or greater. Forty-five (23.8%) patients showed LN metastases (one IA1, 14 IB1, 5 IB2, 5 IB NOS, 11 II, 5 III and 4 IV) and recurrences were recorded in 41 (21.7%) patients. This new risk stratification system identifies a subset of stage I patients with essentially no risk of nodal disease, suggesting that patients with pattern A tumors can be spared lymphadenectomy. Patients with pattern B tumors rarely present with LN metastases, and sentinel LN examination could potentially identify these patients. Surgical treatment with nodal resection is justified in patients with pattern C tumors. PMID:27016227

  8. Dipyridamole thallium-201 scintigraphy for early risk stratification of patients after uncomplicated myocardial infarction

    PubMed Central

    Hung, J.; Moshiri, M.; Groom, G.; Van der Schaaf, A. A; Parsons, R.; Hands, M.

    1997-01-01

    Objective—To determine the safety and prognostic value of dipyridamole thallium-201 scintigraphy performed in patients within three to five days of acute myocardial infarction, including those receiving thrombolytic treatment.
Design—A prospective study of dipyridamole thallium-201 scintigraphy in patients early after acute myocardial infarction.
Setting—University hospital.
Patients—200 patients who were clinically uncomplicated at day 3 after infarction, 92 (46%) of whom had received thrombolysis.
Main outcome measures—Incidence of cardiac death, non-fatal reinfarction, readmission to hospital for unstable angina, or non-elective revascularisation procedure within six months' follow up. 
Results—No patient had a serious complication from the dipyridamole study. At six month follow up, 55 patients (28%) had suffered a defined cardiac event. Patients who received thrombolysis had the same extent of thallium-201 redistribution and the same occurrence of subsequent cardiac events as those not receiving thrombolysis. Patients who subsequently had an event had more myocardial segments showing thallium-201 redistribution than event free patients: 2.7 (SD 1.9) v 1.2 (1.4), respectively (p < 0.001). Among all clinical and scintigraphic variables, multivariate analysis identified the extent of thallium-201 redistribution as the only independent predictor of outcome (p < 0.001). Among 63 patients (32%) of the study cohort who showed more than two myocardial segments with thallium-201 redistribution, the adjusted risk ratio for a cardiac event was 7.5 (95% confidence interval 2.9 to 19.1) compared with patients without any redistribution.
Conclusions—Dipyridamole thallium-201 scintigraphy can be performed safely within a few days of the event in patients with uncomplicated myocardial infarction, including those who received thrombolysis, and can identify a subgroup of patients at high risk of future ischaemic events.

 Keywords

  9. Uric acid in the early risk stratification of ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

    PubMed

    Lazzeri, Chiara; Valente, Serafina; Chiostri, Marco; Picariello, Claudio; Gensini, Gian Franco

    2012-02-01

    Controversy still exists about uric acid as a potential prognostic risk factor for outcomes in patients with acute myocardial infarction. We prospectively assessed, in 856 patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STMI) consecutively admitted to our Intensive Cardiac Care Unit after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) whether uric acid (UA) levels are associated with in-hospital mortality and complications. Killip classes III-IV were more frequent in the 3° UA tertile that was associated with the highest values of peak Tn I (p = 0.005), NT-proBNP (p < 0.001), and fibrinogen (p = 0.036). Uric acid was associated with mortality (crude OR: 1.24; 95% CI 1.03-1.51; p = 0.025), but, when adjusted for Tn I and renal failure (as inferred by eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2)), uric acid lost its statistical significance, while Tn I (100 pg/ml step OR: 1.002; 95% CI 1.000-1.003; p = 0.007) and renal failure (OR 9.16; 95% CI 3.60-23.32; p < 0.001) were independent predictors for in-ICCU mortality. Uric acid remained as independent predictor for in-ICCU complications (1 mg/dl step OR: 1.11; 95% CI 1.01-1.21; p = 0.030) together with admission glycemia (1 g/dl step OR: 1.50; 95% CI 1.19-1.91; p < 0.001) and renal failure (OR: 1.46; 95% CI 0.99-2.16; p < 0.001). In STEMI patients submitted to PCI, increased uric acid levels identify a subgroup more prone to in-ICCU complications, probably because hyperuricemia stems from several complex mechanisms ranging from pre-existing risk factors to the degree of myocardial ischemia (as indicated by Killip class, ejection fraction) and to the acute metabolic response (as inferred by glucose levels). Hyperuricemia is not independently associated with early mortality when adjusted for renal function and the degree of myocardial damage.

  10. Risk stratification for sudden cardiac death: current status and challenges for the future†

    PubMed Central

    Wellens, Hein J.J.; Schwartz, Peter J.; Lindemans, Fred W.; Buxton, Alfred E.; Goldberger, Jeffrey J.; Hohnloser, Stefan H.; Huikuri, Heikki V.; Kääb, Stefan; La Rovere, Maria Teresa; Malik, Marek; Myerburg, Robert J.; Simoons, Maarten L.; Swedberg, Karl; Tijssen, Jan; Voors, Adriaan A.; Wilde, Arthur A.

    2014-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) remains a daunting problem. It is a major public health issue for several reasons: from its prevalence (20% of total mortality in the industrialized world) to the devastating psycho-social impact on society and on the families of victims often still in their prime, and it represents a challenge for medicine, and especially for cardiology. This text summarizes the discussions and opinions of a group of investigators with a long-standing interest in this field. We addressed the occurrence of SCD in individuals apparently healthy, in patients with heart disease and mild or severe cardiac dysfunction, and in those with genetically based arrhythmic diseases. Recognizing the need for more accurate registries of the global and regional distribution of SCD in these different categories, we focused on the assessment of risk for SCD in these four groups, looking at the significance of alterations in cardiac function, of signs of electrical instability identified by ECG abnormalities or by autonomic tests, and of the progressive impact of genetic screening. Special attention was given to the identification of areas of research more or less likely to provide useful information, and thereby more or less suitable for the investment of time and of research funds. PMID:24801071

  11. Lifestyle strategies for cardiovascular risk reduction.

    PubMed

    Rippe, James M; Angelopoulos, Theodore J

    2014-10-01

    Daily lifestyle practices and habits profoundly affect the likelihood of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). Abundant research and multiple recent consensus documents support the role of regular physical activity, not smoking cigarettes, maintaining a healthy body weight, controlling cholesterol levels, and controlling blood pressure to lower the risk of CVD. These strategies also play important roles in avoiding ever developing risk factors. Despite overwhelming knowledge in this area, adherence to lifestyle strategies remains suboptimal. Challenges remain in helping the public to act upon the current knowledge in this area. Recent guidelines for managing cholesterol and blood pressure provide new guidance in these areas. Controversy, however, exists related to specific recommendations in both of these areas. Similar strategies that are applied to adults for improving lifestyle habits and practices to lower CVD risk also apply to children and adolescents. A clear consensus exists that lifestyle strategies play a critical role in preventing, managing, and reducing cardiovascular disease and its risk factors.

  12. Risk stratification for the recurrence of trigger thumb after surgical release in the paediatric patient.

    PubMed

    Edwards, D S; Richards, R H

    2016-08-01

    Trigger thumb, or stenosing tenovaginitis, is a relatively uncommon condition affecting the flexor pollicis longus tendon of children. The condition is characterized by the formation of a nodule within the tendon and thickening of the tendon sheath as it passes through the flexor pulley of the thumb at the level of the metacarpo-phalangeal joint. The optimum age for surgical intervention continues to be discussed. The aim of this study is to establish the temporal relationship and surgical variables to determine factors that may contribute to recurrence of the condition. A retrospective analysis of the entire surgical logbook and patient notes of a stand-alone consultant paediatric orthopaedic practice was scrutinized. 94 patients, 107 thumbs, over a 13-year period were operated on for trigger thumb. The recurrence rate was found to be 5.61 %. The average age of patients at primary release who went on to recurrence was 2.8 years, which is significantly younger than those that did not recur (p = 0.044). Sensitivity analysis revealed that the primary procedure at an age of less than 2.5 years confers a higher risk of recurrence. The data presented here advocate surgical release of trigger thumb after 2½ years of age, a senior surgeon as lead operator and a transverse skin incision at the level of the nodule or a more extensive "zig-zag" one to clearly see the structures to be released. We recommend that the surgeon ensures the stenosing pulley and sheath are released in their entirety. PMID:27352865

  13. Incorporating temporal EHR data in predictive models for risk stratification of renal function deterioration.

    PubMed

    Singh, Anima; Nadkarni, Girish; Gottesman, Omri; Ellis, Stephen B; Bottinger, Erwin P; Guttag, John V

    2015-02-01

    Predictive models built using temporal data in electronic health records (EHRs) can potentially play a major role in improving management of chronic diseases. However, these data present a multitude of technical challenges, including irregular sampling of data and varying length of available patient history. In this paper, we describe and evaluate three different approaches that use machine learning to build predictive models using temporal EHR data of a patient. The first approach is a commonly used non-temporal approach that aggregates values of the predictors in the patient's medical history. The other two approaches exploit the temporal dynamics of the data. The two temporal approaches vary in how they model temporal information and handle missing data. Using data from the EHR of Mount Sinai Medical Center, we learned and evaluated the models in the context of predicting loss of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), the most common assessment of kidney function. Our results show that incorporating temporal information in patient's medical history can lead to better prediction of loss of kidney function. They also demonstrate that exactly how this information is incorporated is important. In particular, our results demonstrate that the relative importance of different predictors varies over time, and that using multi-task learning to account for this is an appropriate way to robustly capture the temporal dynamics in EHR data. Using a case study, we also demonstrate how the multi-task learning based model can yield predictive models with better performance for identifying patients at high risk of short-term loss of kidney function. PMID:25460205

  14. Incorporating temporal EHR data in predictive models for risk stratification of renal function deterioration

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Anima; Nadkarni, Girish; Gottesman, Omri; Ellis, Stephen B.; Bottinger, Erwin P.; Guttag, John V.

    2015-01-01

    Predictive models built using temporal data in electronic health records (EHRs) can potentially play a major role in improving management of chronic diseases. However, these data present a multitude of technical challenges, including irregular sampling of data and varying length of available patient history. In this paper, we describe and evaluate three different approaches that use machine learning to build predictive models using temporal EHR data of a patient. The first approach is a commonly used non-temporal approach that aggregates values of the predictors in the patient’s medical history. The other two approaches exploit the temporal dynamics of the data. The two temporal approaches vary in how they model temporal information and handle missing data. Using data from the EHR of Mount Sinai Medical Center, we learned and evaluated the models in the context of predicting loss of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), the most common assessment of kidney function. Our results show that incorporating temporal information in patient’s medical history can lead to better prediction of loss of kidney function. They also demonstrate that exactly how this information is incorporated is important. In particular, our results demonstrate that the relative importance of different predictors varies over time, and that using multi-task learning to account for this is an appropriate way to robustly capture the temporal dynamics in EHR data. Using a case study, we also demonstrate how the multi-task learning based model can yield predictive models with better performance for identifying patients at high risk of short-term loss of kidney function. PMID:25460205

  15. Risk Stratification of Patients with Peripheral Arterial Disease and Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Using Aortic Augmentation Index

    PubMed Central

    Beckmann, Marianne; Husmann, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Background Central augmentation index (cAIx) is an indicator for vascular stiffness. Obstructive and aneurysmatic vascular disease can affect pulse wave propagation and reflection, causing changes in central aortic pressures. Aim To assess and compare cAIx in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and / or abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). Methods cAIx was assessed by radial applanation tonometry (Sphygmocor) in a total of 184 patients at a tertiary referral centre. Patients were grouped as having PAD only, AAA only, or both AAA and PAD. Differences in cAIx measurements between the three patient groups were tested by non-parametric tests and stepwise multivariate linear regression analysis to investigate associations with obstructive or aneurysmatic patterns of vascular disease. Results In the study sample of 184 patients, 130 had PAD only, 20 had AAA only, and 34 patients had both AAA and PAD. Mean cAIx (%) was 30.5 ± 8.2 across all patients. It was significantly higher in females (35.2 ± 6.1, n = 55) than males (28.4 ± 8.2, n = 129), and significantly higher in patients over 80 years of age (34.4 ± 6.9, n = 22) than in those under 80 years (30.0 ± 8.2, n = 162). Intergroup comparison revealed a significant difference in cAIx between the three patient groups (AAA: 27.3 ± 9.5; PAD: 31.4 ± 7.8; AAA & PAD: 28.8 ± 8.5). cAIx was significantly lower in patients with AAA, higher in patients with both AAA and PAD, and highest in patients with PAD only (beta = 0.21, p = 0.006). Conclusion Non-invasive assessment of arterial stiffness in high-risk patients indicates that cAIx differs according to the pattern of vascular disease. Measurements revealed significantly higher cAIx values for patients with obstructive peripheral arterial disease than for patients with aneurysmatic disease. PMID:26452151

  16. Elevated liver fibrosis index FIB-4 is not reliable for HCC risk stratification in predominantly non-Asian CHB patients.

    PubMed

    Demir, Münevver; Grünewald, Friederike; Lang, Sonja; Schramm, Christoph; Bowe, Andrea; Mück, Vera; Kütting, Fabian; Goeser, Tobias; Steffen, Hans-Michael

    2016-09-01

    We aimed to validate the liver fibrosis index FIB-4 as a model for risk stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma development in predominantly non-Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B infection seen at a tertiary referral center in Germany.We retrospectively analyzed 373 adult patients with chronic hepatitis B infection. Patient demographics, hepatitis B markers, antiviral treatment, laboratory parameters, results from liver imaging and histology were recorded. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to their FIB-4 levels and their hazard ratios for developing hepatocellular carcinoma were analyzed adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, alcohol consumption, and antiviral medication.Median follow-up was 8.7 years (range 1-21.3 years), 93% of patients were of non-Asian origin, and 64% were male. Compared with patients with a low FIB-4 (<1.25) patients with FIB-4 ≥1.25 showed a hazard ratio for incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma of 3.03 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.24-7.41) and an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.75 (95% CI: 0.64-4.74). Notably, 68% of patients with liver cirrhosis and 68% of those who developed HCC during observation had a low FIB-4 (<1.25).We could not confirm that a FIB-4 value ≥1.25 is a reliable clinical indicator for incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in predominantly non-Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B. Further studies in geographically and ethnically diverse populations are needed to prove its utility as a predictive tool.

  17. Elevated liver fibrosis index FIB-4 is not reliable for HCC risk stratification in predominantly non-Asian CHB patients.

    PubMed

    Demir, Münevver; Grünewald, Friederike; Lang, Sonja; Schramm, Christoph; Bowe, Andrea; Mück, Vera; Kütting, Fabian; Goeser, Tobias; Steffen, Hans-Michael

    2016-09-01

    We aimed to validate the liver fibrosis index FIB-4 as a model for risk stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma development in predominantly non-Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B infection seen at a tertiary referral center in Germany.We retrospectively analyzed 373 adult patients with chronic hepatitis B infection. Patient demographics, hepatitis B markers, antiviral treatment, laboratory parameters, results from liver imaging and histology were recorded. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to their FIB-4 levels and their hazard ratios for developing hepatocellular carcinoma were analyzed adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, alcohol consumption, and antiviral medication.Median follow-up was 8.7 years (range 1-21.3 years), 93% of patients were of non-Asian origin, and 64% were male. Compared with patients with a low FIB-4 (<1.25) patients with FIB-4 ≥1.25 showed a hazard ratio for incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma of 3.03 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.24-7.41) and an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.75 (95% CI: 0.64-4.74). Notably, 68% of patients with liver cirrhosis and 68% of those who developed HCC during observation had a low FIB-4 (<1.25).We could not confirm that a FIB-4 value ≥1.25 is a reliable clinical indicator for incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in predominantly non-Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B. Further studies in geographically and ethnically diverse populations are needed to prove its utility as a predictive tool. PMID:27661015

  18. Elevated liver fibrosis index FIB-4 is not reliable for HCC risk stratification in predominantly non-Asian CHB patients

    PubMed Central

    Demir, Münevver; Grünewald, Friederike; Lang, Sonja; Schramm, Christoph; Bowe, Andrea; Mück, Vera; Kütting, Fabian; Goeser, Tobias; Steffen, Hans-Michael

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We aimed to validate the liver fibrosis index FIB-4 as a model for risk stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma development in predominantly non-Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B infection seen at a tertiary referral center in Germany. We retrospectively analyzed 373 adult patients with chronic hepatitis B infection. Patient demographics, hepatitis B markers, antiviral treatment, laboratory parameters, results from liver imaging and histology were recorded. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to their FIB-4 levels and their hazard ratios for developing hepatocellular carcinoma were analyzed adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, alcohol consumption, and antiviral medication. Median follow-up was 8.7 years (range 1–21.3 years), 93% of patients were of non-Asian origin, and 64% were male. Compared with patients with a low FIB-4 (<1.25) patients with FIB-4 ≥1.25 showed a hazard ratio for incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma of 3.03 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.24–7.41) and an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.75 (95% CI: 0.64–4.74). Notably, 68% of patients with liver cirrhosis and 68% of those who developed HCC during observation had a low FIB-4 (<1.25). We could not confirm that a FIB-4 value ≥1.25 is a reliable clinical indicator for incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in predominantly non-Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B. Further studies in geographically and ethnically diverse populations are needed to prove its utility as a predictive tool. PMID:27661015

  19. Minimal Residual Disease-Based Risk Stratification in Chinese Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia by Flow Cytometry and Plasma DNA Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Suk Hang; Lau, Kin Mang; Li, Chi Kong; Chan, Natalie P. H.; Ip, Rosalina K. L.; Cheng, Chi Keung; Lee, Vincent; Shing, Matthew M. K.; Leung, Alex W. K.; Ha, Shau Yin; Cheuk, Daniel K. L.; Lee, Anselm C. W.; Li, Chak Ho; Luk, Chung Wing; Ling, Siu Cheung; Hrusak, Ondrej; Mejstrikova, Ester; Leung, Yonna; Ng, Margaret H. L.

    2013-01-01

    Minimal residual disease, or MRD, is an important prognostic indicator in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia. In ALL-IC-BFM 2002 study, we employed a standardized method of flow cytometry MRD monitoring for multiple centers internationally using uniformed gating, and determined the relevant MRD-based risk stratification strategies in our local patient cohort. We also evaluated a novel method of PCR MRD quantitation using peripheral blood plasma. For the bone marrow flow MRD study, patients could be stratified into 3 risk groups according to MRD level using a single time-point at day-15 (Model I) (I-A: <0.1%, I-B: 0.1–10%, I-C: >10%), or using two time-points at day-15 and day-33 (Model II) (II-A: day-15<10% and day-33<0.01%, II-B: day-15≥10% or day-33≥0.01% but not both, II-C: day-15≥10% and day-33≥0.01%), which showed significantly superior prediction of relapse (p = .00047 and <0.0001 respectively). Importantly, patients with good outcome (frequency: 56.0%, event-free survival: 90.1%) could be more accurately predicted by Model II. In peripheral blood plasma PCR MRD investigation, patients with day-15-MRD≥10−4 were at a significantly higher risk of relapse (p = 0.0117). By multivariate analysis, MRD results from both methods could independently predict patients’ prognosis, with 20–35-fold increase in risk of relapse for flow MRD I-C and II-C respectively, and 5.8-fold for patients having plasma MRD of ≥10−4. We confirmed that MRD detection by flow cytometry is useful for prognostic evaluation in our Chinese cohort of childhood ALL after treatment. Moreover, peripheral blood plasma DNA MRD can be an alternative where bone marrow specimen is unavailable and as a less invasive method, which allows close monitoring. PMID:23936021

  20. Usefulness of quantitative versus qualitative ST-segment depression for risk stratification of non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes in contemporary clinical practice.

    PubMed

    Yan, Raymond T; Yan, Andrew T; Granger, Christopher B; Lopez-Sendon, Jose; Brieger, David; Kennelly, Brian; Budaj, Andrzej; Steg, Ph Gabriel; Georgescu, Alina A; Hassan, Quamrul; Goodman, Shaun G

    2008-04-01

    This aim of this study was to assess the clinical utility of quantitative ST-segment depression (STD) for refining the risk stratification of non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes in the prospective, multinational Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE). Quantitative measurements of STD on admission electrocardiograms were evaluated independently by a core laboratory, and their predictive value for in-hospital and cumulative 6-month mortality was examined. Although more severe STD is a marker of increased short- and long-term mortality, it is also associated with higher risk clinical features and biomarkers. Thus, after adjustment for these clinically important predictors, quantitative STD does not provide incremental prognostic value beyond simple dichotomous evaluation for the presence of STD. Furthermore, adopting quantitative instead of the prognostically proven qualitative evaluation of STD does not improve risk discrimination afforded by the validated GRACE risk models. In conclusion, the findings do not support the quantification of STD in routine clinical practice beyond simple evaluation for the presence of STD as an integral part of comprehensive risk stratification using the GRACE risk score.

  1. Pharmacogenetic Risk Stratification in Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor-Treated Patients with Congestive Heart Failure: A Retrospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Nelveg-Kristensen, Karl Emil; Busk Madsen, Majbritt; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Køber, Lars; Egfjord, Martin; Berg Rasmussen, Henrik; Riis Hansen, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Background Evidence for pharmacogenetic risk stratification of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) treatment is limited. Therefore, in a cohort of ACEI-treated patients with congestive heart failure (CHF), we investigated the predictive value of two pharmacogenetic scores that previously were found to predict ACEI efficacy in patients with ischemic heart disease and hypertension, respectively. Score A combined single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the angiotensin II receptor type 1 gene (rs275651 and rs5182) and the bradykinin receptor B1 gene (rs12050217). Score B combined SNPs of the angiotensin-converting enzyme gene (rs4343) and ABO blood group genes (rs495828 and rs8176746). Methods Danish patients with CHF enrolled in the previously reported Echocardiography and Heart Outcome Study were included. Subjects were genotyped and categorized according to pharmacogenetic scores A and B of ≤1, 2 and ≥3 each, and followed for up to 10 years. Difference in cumulative incidences of cardiovascular death and all-cause death were assessed by the cumulative incidence estimator. Survival was modeled by Cox proportional hazard analyses. Results We included 667 patients, of whom 80% were treated with ACEIs. Differences in cumulative incidences of cardiovascular death (P = 0.346 and P = 0.486) and all-cause death (P = 0.515 and P = 0.486) were not significant for score A and B, respectively. There was no difference in risk of cardiovascular death or all-cause death between subjects with score A ≤1 vs. 2 (HR 1.03 [95% CI 0.79–1.34] and HR 1.11 [95% CI 0.88–1.42]), score A ≤1 vs. ≥3 (HR 0.80 [95% CI 0.59–1.08] and HR 0.91 [95% CI 0.70–1.20]), score B ≤1 vs. 2 (HR 1.02 [95% CI 0.78–1.32] and HR 0.98 [95% CI 0.77–1.24]), and score B ≤1 vs. ≥3 (HR 1.03 [95% CI 0.75–1.41] and HR 1.05 [95% CI 0.79–1.40]), respectively. Conclusions We found no association between either of the analyzed pharmacogenetic scores and fatal outcomes in ACEI

  2. Risk stratification in unstable angina and non-Q wave myocardial infarction using soluble cell adhesion molecules

    PubMed Central

    Mulvihill, N; Foley, J; Murphy, R; Curtin, R; Crean, P; Walsh, M

    2001-01-01

    are predictive of an increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events six months after presentation with unstable angina and non-Q wave myocardial infarction. These findings suggest that the intensity of the vascular inflammatory process at the time of presentation is a determinant of clinical outcome in unstable coronary artery disease. 


Keywords: cell adhesion molecules; risk stratification; unstable angina PMID:11359739

  3. Market transition, educational disparities, and family strategies in rural China: new evidence on gender stratification and development.

    PubMed

    Hannum, Emily

    2005-05-01

    Two theoretical perspectives have dominated debates about the impact of development on gender stratification: modernization theory, which argues that gender inequalities decline with economic growth, and the "women in development" perspective, which argues that development may initially widen gender gaps. Analyzing cross-sectional surveys and time-series data from China, this article indicates the relevance of both perspectives: while girls' educational opportunities were clearly more responsive than boys' to better household economic circumstances, the era of market transition in the late 1970s and early 1980s failed to accelerate and, in fact, may have temporarily slowed progress toward gender equity.

  4. Environmental Stratification Framework and Water-Quality Monitoring Design Strategy for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, Africa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedel, Michael J.

    2008-01-01

    Mauritania anticipates an increase in mining activities throughout the country and into the foreseeable future. Because mining-induced changes in the landscape are likely to affect their limited ground-water resources and sensitive aquatic ecosystems, a water-quality assessment program was designed for Mauritania that is based on a nationally consistent environmental stratification framework. The primary objectives of this program are to ensure that the environmental monitoring systems can quantify near real-time changes in surface-water chemistry at a local scale, and quantify intermediate- to long-term changes in groundwater and aquatic ecosystems over multiple scales.

  5. Review article: Diagnostic accuracy of risk stratification tools for patients with chest pain in the rural emergency department: A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Roche, Tina; Jennings, Natasha; Clifford, Stuart; O'connell, Jane; Lutze, Matthew; Gosden, Edward; Hadden, N Fionna; Gardner, Glenn

    2016-10-01

    Risk stratification tools for patients presenting to rural EDs with undifferentiated chest pain enable early definitive treatment in high-risk patients. This systematic review compares the most commonly used risk stratification tools used to predict the risk of major adverse cardiac event (MACE) for patients presenting to rural EDs with chest pain. A comprehensive search of MEDLINE and Embase for studies published between January 2011 and January 2015 was undertaken. Study quality was assessed using QUADAS-2 criteria and the PRISMA guidelines.Eleven studies using eight risk stratification tools met the inclusion criteria. The percentage of MACE in the patients stratified as suitable for discharge, and the percentage of patients whose scores would have recommended admission that did not experience a MACE event were used as comparisons. Using the findings of a survey of emergency physicians that found a 1% MACE rate acceptable in discharged patients, the EDACS-ADP was considered the best performer. EDACS-ADP had one of the lowest rates of MACE in those discharged (3/1148, 0.3%) and discharged one of the highest percentage of patients (44.5%). Only the GRACE tool discharged more patients (69% - all patients with scores <100) but had a MACE rate of 0.3% in discharged patients. The HFA/CSANZ guidelines achieved zero cases of MACE but discharged only 1.3% of patients.EDACS-ADP can potentially increase diagnostic efficiency of patients presenting at ED with chest pain. Further assessment of tool in a rural context is recommended.

  6. Mutational spectrum and risk stratification of intermediate-risk acute myeloid leukemia patients based on next-generation sequencing.

    PubMed

    Wang, Bianhong; Liu, Yangyang; Hou, Guangyuan; Wang, Lili; Lv, Na; Xu, Yuanyuan; Xu, Yihan; Wang, Xiuli; Xuan, Zhaoling; Jing, Yu; Li, Honghua; Jin, Xiangshu; Deng, Ailing; Wang, Li; Gao, Xiaoning; Dou, Liping; Liang, Junbin; Chen, Chongjian; Li, Yonghui; Yu, Li

    2016-05-31

    Intermediate-risk acute myeloid leukemia (IR-AML), which accounts for a substantial number of AML cases, is highly heterogeneous. Although several mutations have been identified, the heterogeneity of AML is uncertain because novel mutations have yet to be discovered. Here we applied next generation sequencing (NGS) platform to screen mutational hotspots in 410 genes relevant to hematological malignancy. IR-AML samples (N=95) were sequenced by Illumina Hiseq and mutations in 101 genes were identified. Only seven genes (CEBPA, NPM1, DNMT3A, FLT3-ITD, NRAS, IDH2 and WT1) were mutated in more than 10% of patients. Genetic interaction analysis identified several cooperative and exclusive patterns of overlapping mutations. Mutational analysis indicated some correlation between genotype and phenotype. FLT3-ITD mutations were identified as independent factors of poor prognosis, while CEBPA mutations were independent favorable factors. Co-occurrence of FLT3-ITD, NPM1 and DNMT3A mutations was identified with associated with specific clinical AML features and poor outcomes. Furthermore, by integrating multiple mutations in the survival analysis, 95 IR-AML patients could be stratified into three distinct risk groups allowing reductions in IR-AML by one-third. Our study offers deep insights into the molecular pathogenesis and biology of AML and indicated that the prognosis of IR-AML could be further stratified by different mutation combinations which may direct future treatment intervention.

  7. The Value of Elastic Modulus Index as a Novel Surrogate Marker for Cardiovascular Risk Stratification by Dimensional Speckle-Tracking Carotid Ultrasonography

    PubMed Central

    Yoon, Ji Hyun; Cho, In-Jeong; Sung, Ji Min; Lee, Jinyong; Ryoo, Hojin; Shim, Chi Young; Hong, Geu-Ru; Chung, Namsik

    2016-01-01

    Background Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) and the presence of carotid plaque have been used for risk stratification of cardiovascular disease (CVD). To date, however, the association between multi-directional functional properties of carotid artery and CVD has not been fully elucidated. We sought to explore the multi-directional mechanics of the carotid artery in relation to cardiovascular risk. Methods Four hundred one patients who underwent carotid ultrasound were enrolled between January 2010 and April 2013. A high risk of CVD was defined as more than 20% of 10-year risk based on the Framingham risk score. Using a speckle-tracking technique, the longitudinal and radial movements were analyzed in the B-mode images. Peak longitudinal and radial displacements, strain and strain rate were also measured. Beta stiffness and elastic modulus index were calculated from the radial measurements. Results Of the overall sample, 13% (52) of patients comprised the high-risk group. In multivariate logistic regression, CIMT and elastic modulus index were independently associated with a high-risk of CVD {odds ratio (OR): 1.810 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.249–2.622] and OR: 1.767 (95% CI: 1.177–2.652); p = 0.002, 0.006, respectively}. The combination of CIMT and elastic modulus index correlated with a high-risk of CVD more so than CIMT alone. Conclusion The elastic modulus index of the carotid artery might serve as a novel surrogate marker of high-risk CVD. Measurement of the multi-directional mechanics of the carotid artery using the speckle tracking technique has potential for providing further information over conventional B-mode ultrasound for stratification of CVD risk. PMID:27721952

  8. Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

    PubMed

    Jebari, Karim

    2015-06-01

    A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously. PMID:24891130

  9. Implications of delayed bone marrow aspirations at the end of treatment induction for risk stratification and outcome in children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

    PubMed

    Zuna, Jan; Moericke, Anja; Arens, Mari; Koehler, Rolf; Panzer-Grümayer, Renate; Bartram, Claus R; Fischer, Susanna; Fronkova, Eva; Zaliova, Marketa; Schrauder, André; Stanulla, Martin; Zimmermann, Martin; Trka, Jan; Stary, Jan; Attarbaschi, Andishe; Mann, Georg; Schrappe, Martin; Cario, Gunnar

    2016-06-01

    Minimal residual disease (MRD) at the end of induction therapy is important for risk stratification of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), but bone marrow (BM) aspiration is often postponed or must be repeated to fulfil qualitative and quantitative criteria for morphological assessment of haematological remission and/or MRD analysis. The impact of BM aspiration delay on measured MRD levels and resulting risk stratification is currently unknown. We analysed paired MRD data of 289 paediatric ALL patients requiring a repeat BM aspiration. MRD levels differed in 108 patients (37%) with a decrease in the majority (85/108). This would have resulted in different risk group allocation in 64 of 289 patients (23%) when applying the ALL-Berlin-Frankfurt-Münster 2000 criteria. MRD change was associated with the duration of delay; 40% of patients with delay ≥7 days had a shift to lower MRD levels compared to only 18% after a shorter delay. Patients MRD-positive at the original but MRD-negative at the repeat BM aspiration (n = 50) had a worse 5-year event-free survival than those already negative at first aspiration (n = 115) (86 ± 5% vs. 94 ± 2%; P = 0·024). We conclude that BM aspirations should be pursued as scheduled in the protocol because delayed MRD sampling at end of induction may result in false-low MRD load and distort MRD-based risk assessment.

  10. Knowledge management: an innovative risk management strategy.

    PubMed

    Zipperer, Lorri; Amori, Geri

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge management effectively lends itself to the enterprise risk process. The authors introduce the concept of knowledge management as a strategy to drive innovation and support risk management. They align this work with organizational efforts to improve patient safety and quality through the effective sharing of experience and lessons learned. The article closes with suggestions on how to develop a knowledge management initiative at an organization, who should be on the team, and how to sustain this effort and build the culture it requires to drive success.

  11. Knowledge management: an innovative risk management strategy.

    PubMed

    Zipperer, Lorri; Amori, Geri

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge management effectively lends itself to the enterprise risk process. The authors introduce the concept of knowledge management as a strategy to drive innovation and support risk management. They align this work with organizational efforts to improve patient safety and quality through the effective sharing of experience and lessons learned. The article closes with suggestions on how to develop a knowledge management initiative at an organization, who should be on the team, and how to sustain this effort and build the culture it requires to drive success. PMID:21506198

  12. Government Policy, Stratification and Urban Schools: A Commentary on the "Five-Year Strategy for Children and Learners"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Riddell, Richard

    2005-01-01

    The DfESs "Five-year strategy for children and learners" sets out the intentions of the Labour Government for its third term. Where necessary, its provisions will be subject to legislation in 2005. This article argues that the "Five-year strategy", like much education policy since 1997, ignores important reasons for inequality of educational…

  13. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    PubMed

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

  14. A new Bayesian network-based risk stratification model for prediction of short-term and long-term LVAD mortality.

    PubMed

    Loghmanpour, Natasha A; Kanwar, Manreet K; Druzdzel, Marek J; Benza, Raymond L; Murali, Srinivas; Antaki, James F

    2015-01-01

    Existing risk assessment tools for patient selection for left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) such as the Destination Therapy Risk Score and HeartMate II Risk Score (HMRS) have limited predictive ability. This study aims to overcome the limitations of traditional statistical methods by performing the first application of Bayesian analysis to the comprehensive Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support dataset and comparing it to HMRS. We retrospectively analyzed 8,050 continuous flow LVAD patients and 226 preimplant variables. We then derived Bayesian models for mortality at each of five time end-points postimplant (30 days, 90 days, 6 month, 1 year, and 2 years), achieving accuracies of 95%, 90%, 90%, 83%, and 78%, Kappa values of 0.43, 0.37, 0.37, 0.45, and 0.43, and area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) of 91%, 82%, 82%, 80%, and 81%, respectively. This was in comparison to the HMRS with an ROC of 57% and 60% at 90 days and 1 year, respectively. Preimplant interventions, such as dialysis, ECMO, and ventilators were major contributing risk markers. Bayesian models have the ability to reliably represent the complex causal relations of multiple variables on clinical outcomes. Their potential to develop a reliable risk stratification tool for use in clinical decision making on LVAD patients encourages further investigation. PMID:25710772

  15. Mercury Contamination: Fate and Risk Minimization Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charlet, L.

    Two river basins have been studied in French Guyana, which are subject to heavy mercury contamination, due to illegal gold mining. Within the framework of an interdisciplinary European project, the fate of mercury in water, air, soil, sediment has been studied, as well as its bio-accumulation in the food chain. This bioaccumulation results in the contamination of amerindian populations, through fish consumption. This study has been done in close contact with the economic and political actors. The results of the scientific interdisciplinary study has been translated in terms of risk minimization strategies, which are analyzed in the framework of the European Water Framework Directive.

  16. HIV testing behaviour and use of risk reduction strategies by HIV risk category among MSM in Vancouver.

    PubMed

    Bogowicz, Paul; Moore, David; Kanters, Steve; Michelow, Warren; Robert, Wayne; Hogg, Robert; Gustafson, Réka; Gilbert, Mark

    2016-03-01

    We carried out an analysis of a serobehavioural study of men who have sex with men >19 years of age in Vancouver, Canada to examine HIV testing behaviour and use of risk reduction strategies by HIV risk category, as defined by routinely gathered clinical data. We restricted our analysis to those who self-identified as HIV-negative, completed a questionnaire, and provided a dried blood spot sample. Of 842 participants, 365 (43.3%) were categorised as lower-risk, 245 (29.1%) as medium-risk and 232 (27.6%) as higher-risk. The prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection was low (lower 0.8%, medium 3.3%, higher 3.9%; p = 0.032). Participants differed by risk category in terms of having had an HIV test in the previous year (lower 46.5%, medium 54.6%, higher 67.0%; p < 0.001) and in their use of serosorting (lower 23.3%, medium 48.3%, higher 43.1%; p < 0.001) and only having sex with HIV-positive men if those men had low viral loads or were taking HIV medication (lower 5.1%, medium 4.8%, higher 10.9%; p = 0.021) as risk reduction strategies. These findings speak to the need to consider segmented health promotion services for men who have sex with men with differing risk profiles. Risk stratification could be used to determine who might benefit from tailored multiple health promotion interventions, including HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis.

  17. Risk Mitigation Strategies for Adverse Reactions Associated with the Disease Modifying Drugs in Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Subei, Adnan M.

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several years the number of disease modifying therapies (DMTs) have doubled in number. The thirteen approved agents have shown a wide-range of efficacy and safety in their clinical trials and post-marketing experience. While the availability of the newer agents allows for a wider selection of therapy for clinicians and patients, it requires careful understanding of the benefits and risks of each agent. Several factors such as the medication efficacy, side-effect profile, patient’s preference, and co-morbidities need to be considered. An individualized treatment approach is thus imperative. In this review, risk stratification and mitigation strategies of the various disease modifying agents will be discussed. PMID:26407624

  18. Cardiac Health Risk Stratification System (CHRiSS): A Bayesian-Based Decision Support System for Left Ventricular Assist Device (LVAD) Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Loghmanpour, Natasha A.; Druzdzel, Marek J.; Antaki, James F.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the use of Bayesian Networks (BNs) for left ventricular assist device (LVAD) therapy; a treatment for end-stage heart failure that has been steadily growing in popularity over the past decade. Despite this growth, the number of LVAD implants performed annually remains a small fraction of the estimated population of patients who might benefit from this treatment. We believe that this demonstrates a need for an accurate stratification tool that can help identify LVAD candidates at the most appropriate point in the course of their disease. We derived BNs to predict mortality at five endpoints utilizing the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) database: containing over 12,000 total enrolled patients from 153 hospital sites, collected since 2006 to the present day, and consisting of approximately 230 pre-implant clinical variables. Synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was employed to address the uneven proportion of patients with negative outcomes and to improve the performance of the models. The resulting accuracy and area under the ROC curve (%) for predicted mortality were 30 day: 94.9 and 92.5; 90 day: 84.2 and 73.9; 6 month: 78.2 and 70.6; 1 year: 73.1 and 70.6; and 2 years: 71.4 and 70.8. To foster the translation of these models to clinical practice, they have been incorporated into a web-based application, the Cardiac Health Risk Stratification System (CHRiSS). As clinical experience with LVAD therapy continues to grow, and additional data is collected, we aim to continually update these BN models to improve their accuracy and maintain their relevance. Ongoing work also aims to extend the BN models to predict the risk of adverse events post-LVAD implant as additional factors for consideration in decision making. PMID:25397576

  19. NASA's Orbital Space Plane Risk Reduction Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dumbacher, Dan

    2003-01-01

    This paper documents the transformation of NASA s Space Launch Initiative (SLI) Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program under the revised Integrated Space Transportation Plan, announced November 2002. Outlining the technology development approach followed by the original SLI, this paper gives insight into the current risk-reduction strategy that will enable confident development of the Nation s first orbital space plane (OSP). The OSP will perform an astronaut and contingency cargo transportation function, with an early crew rescue capability, thus enabling increased crew size and enhanced science operations aboard the International Space Station. The OSP design chosen for full-scale development will take advantage of the latest innovations American industry has to offer. The OSP Program identifies critical technologies that must be advanced to field a safe, reliable, affordable space transportation system for U.S. access to the Station and low-Earth orbit. OSP flight demonstrators will test crew safety features, validate autonomous operations, and mature thermal protection systems. Additional enabling technologies may be identified during the OSP design process as part of an overall risk-management strategy. The OSP Program uses a comprehensive and evolutionary systems acquisition approach, while applying appropriate lessons learned.

  20. Risk-benefit stratification as a guide to lidocaine prophylaxis of primary ventricular fibrillation in acute myocardial infarction: an analytic review.

    PubMed Central

    Goldman, L.; Batsford, W. P.

    1979-01-01

    Early investigators suggested that ventricular fibrillation without heart failure in acute myocardial infarction was reliably preceded by warning arrhythmias, and that suppression of such arrhythmias with intravenous lidocaine could avoid the need for resuscitation. While the efficacy and safety of lidocaine have been substantiated, the reliability of warning arrhythmias as predictors for primary ventricular fibrillation has not. We present data showing that the risk of primary ventricular fibrillation is most dependent on the patient's age and the interval since the onset of his symptoms, rather than on the presence of warning arrhythmias. We have estimated that lidocaine prophylaxis would have to be given to about 12 patients in the highest risk group (patients under age 50 and within six hours of the onset of symptoms), compared to about 400 patients in the lowest risk group (patients above age 70 and more than 24 hours since the onset of symptoms), to prevent one episode of primary ventricular fibrillation in each group. We propose that these risk stratifications, as adapted to the conditions in specific hospitals, provide the most rational approach to lidocaine prophylaxis of primary ventricular fibrillation. PMID:392960

  1. Radon Risk Communication Strategies: A Regional Story.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Winnie

    2016-01-01

    Risk communication on the health effects of radon encounters many challenges and requires a variety of risk communication strategies and approaches. The concern over radon exposure and its health effects may vary according to people's level of knowledge and receptivity. Homeowners in radon-prone areas are usually more informed and have greater concern over those not living in radon-prone areas. The latter group is often found to be resistant to testing. In British Columbia as well as many other parts of the country, some homes have been lying outside of the radon-prone areas have radon levels above the Canadian guideline, which is the reason Health Canada recommends that all homes should be tested. Over the last five years, the Environment Health Program (EHP) of Health Canada in the British Columbia region has been using a variety of different approaches in their radon risk communications through social media, workshops, webinars, public forums, poster contests, radon distribution maps, public inquiries, tradeshows and conference events, and partnership with different jurisdictions and nongovernmental organizations. The valuable lessons learned from these approaches are discussed in this special report. PMID:26867298

  2. Radon Risk Communication Strategies: A Regional Story.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Winnie

    2016-01-01

    Risk communication on the health effects of radon encounters many challenges and requires a variety of risk communication strategies and approaches. The concern over radon exposure and its health effects may vary according to people's level of knowledge and receptivity. Homeowners in radon-prone areas are usually more informed and have greater concern over those not living in radon-prone areas. The latter group is often found to be resistant to testing. In British Columbia as well as many other parts of the country, some homes have been lying outside of the radon-prone areas have radon levels above the Canadian guideline, which is the reason Health Canada recommends that all homes should be tested. Over the last five years, the Environment Health Program (EHP) of Health Canada in the British Columbia region has been using a variety of different approaches in their radon risk communications through social media, workshops, webinars, public forums, poster contests, radon distribution maps, public inquiries, tradeshows and conference events, and partnership with different jurisdictions and nongovernmental organizations. The valuable lessons learned from these approaches are discussed in this special report.

  3. The Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Threatened Limb Classification System: risk stratification based on wound, ischemia, and foot infection (WIfI).

    PubMed

    Mills, Joseph L; Conte, Michael S; Armstrong, David G; Pomposelli, Frank B; Schanzer, Andres; Sidawy, Anton N; Andros, George

    2014-01-01

    Critical limb ischemia, first defined in 1982, was intended to delineate a subgroup of patients with a threatened lower extremity primarily because of chronic ischemia. It was the intent of the original authors that patients with diabetes be excluded or analyzed separately. The Fontaine and Rutherford Systems have been used to classify risk of amputation and likelihood of benefit from revascularization by subcategorizing patients into two groups: ischemic rest pain and tissue loss. Due to demographic shifts over the last 40 years, especially a dramatic rise in the incidence of diabetes mellitus and rapidly expanding techniques of revascularization, it has become increasingly difficult to perform meaningful outcomes analysis for patients with threatened limbs using these existing classification systems. Particularly in patients with diabetes, limb threat is part of a broad disease spectrum. Perfusion is only one determinant of outcome; wound extent and the presence and severity of infection also greatly impact the threat to a limb. Therefore, the Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Guidelines Committee undertook the task of creating a new classification of the threatened lower extremity that reflects these important considerations. We term this new framework, the Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Threatened Limb Classification System. Risk stratification is based on three major factors that impact amputation risk and clinical management: Wound, Ischemia, and foot Infection (WIfI). The implementation of this classification system is intended to permit more meaningful analysis of outcomes for various forms of therapy in this challenging, but heterogeneous population. PMID:24126108

  4. The Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Threatened Limb Classification System: risk stratification based on wound, ischemia, and foot infection (WIfI).

    PubMed

    Mills, Joseph L; Conte, Michael S; Armstrong, David G; Pomposelli, Frank B; Schanzer, Andres; Sidawy, Anton N; Andros, George

    2014-01-01

    Critical limb ischemia, first defined in 1982, was intended to delineate a subgroup of patients with a threatened lower extremity primarily because of chronic ischemia. It was the intent of the original authors that patients with diabetes be excluded or analyzed separately. The Fontaine and Rutherford Systems have been used to classify risk of amputation and likelihood of benefit from revascularization by subcategorizing patients into two groups: ischemic rest pain and tissue loss. Due to demographic shifts over the last 40 years, especially a dramatic rise in the incidence of diabetes mellitus and rapidly expanding techniques of revascularization, it has become increasingly difficult to perform meaningful outcomes analysis for patients with threatened limbs using these existing classification systems. Particularly in patients with diabetes, limb threat is part of a broad disease spectrum. Perfusion is only one determinant of outcome; wound extent and the presence and severity of infection also greatly impact the threat to a limb. Therefore, the Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Guidelines Committee undertook the task of creating a new classification of the threatened lower extremity that reflects these important considerations. We term this new framework, the Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Threatened Limb Classification System. Risk stratification is based on three major factors that impact amputation risk and clinical management: Wound, Ischemia, and foot Infection (WIfI). The implementation of this classification system is intended to permit more meaningful analysis of outcomes for various forms of therapy in this challenging, but heterogeneous population.

  5. Improving flood risk management through risk communication strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bodoque, Jose Maria; Diez Herrero, Andres; Amerigo, Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Olcina, Jorge; Cortes, Beatriz

    2016-04-01

    risk and a low level of awareness regarding the Civil Protection Plan. In the social context of the Iberian Peninsula, where climate change models indicate an increase in extreme weather events and, consequently, high exposure and vulnerability to flash floods, the implementation of appropriately designed communication strategies is critical to improve the resilience of urban areas in order to cope with this risk.

  6. Risk assessment to guide cervical screening strategies in a large Chinese population.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Fang-Hui; Hu, Shang-Ying; Zhang, Qian; Zhang, Xun; Pan, Qin-Jing; Zhang, Wen-Hua; Gage, Julia C; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Castle, Philip E; Qiao, You-Lin; Katki, Hormuzd A; Schiffman, Mark

    2016-06-01

    Three different cervical screening methods [cytology, human papillomavirus(HPV) testing and visual inspection with acetic acid(VIA)] are being considered in China for the national cervical screening program. Comparing risks of CIN3 and cervical cancer (CIN3+) for different results can inform test choice and management guidelines. We evaluated the immediate risk of CIN3+ for different screening results generated from individual and combined tests. We compared tests using a novel statistic designed for this purpose called Mean Risk Stratification (MRS), in a pooled analysis of 17 cross sectional population-based studies of 30,371 Chinese women screened with all 3 methods and diagnosed by colposcopically-directed biopsies. The 3 tests combined powerfully distinguished CIN3+ risk; triple-negative screening conferred a risk of 0.01%, while HPV-positive HSIL+ that was VIA-positive yielded a risk of 57.8%. Among the three screening tests, HPV status most strongly stratified CIN3+ risk. Among HPV-positive women, cytology was the more useful second test. In HPV-negative women, the immediate risks of CIN3+ ranged from 0.01% (negative cytology), 0.00% (ASC-US), 1.1% (LSIL), to 6.6 (HSIL+). In HPV-positive women, the CIN3+ risks were 0.9% (negative cytology), 3.6% (ASC-US), 6.3% (LSIL) and 38.5% (HSIL+). VIA results did not meaningful stratify CIN3+ risk among HPV-negative women with negative or ASC-US cytology; however, positive VIA substantially elevated CIN3+ risk for all other, more positive combinations of HPV and cytology compared with a negative VIA. Because all 3 screening tests had independent value in defining risk of CIN3+, different combinations can be optimized as pragmatic strategies in different resource settings. PMID:26800481

  7. Effect of Metabolic Syndrome on Risk Stratification for Left Atrial or Left Atrial Appendage Thrombus Formation in Patients with Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Yu-Yang; Liu, Qi; Liu, Li; Shu, Xiao-Rong; Su, Zi-Zhuo; Zhang, Hai-Feng; Nie, Ru-Qiong; Wang, Jing-Feng; Xie, Shuang-Lun

    2016-01-01

    Background: Metabolic syndrome (MS) is a risk factor for stroke and thromboembolism event. Left atrial or LA appendage (LA/LAA) thrombus is a surrogate of potential stroke. The relationship between MS and atrial thrombus remains unclear. In this study, we sought to investigate the effect of MS on risk stratification of LA/LAA thrombus formation in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Methods: This cross-sectional study enrolled 294 consecutive NVAF patients without prior anticoagulant and lipid-lowering therapies. LA/LAA thrombus was determined by transesophageal echocardiography. Risk assessment of LA/LAA thrombus was performed using the CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, MS, CHADS2-MS, and CHA2DS2-VASc-MS scores. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine which factors were significantly related to LA/LAA thrombus. Odds ratio (OR) including 95% confidence interval was also calculated. The predictive powers of different scores for the risk of LA/LAA thrombus were represented by C-statistics and compared by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results: LA/LAA thrombi were identified in 56 patients (19.0%). Logistic analysis showed that MS was the strongest risk factor for LA/LAA thrombus in NVAF patients (OR = 14.698, P < 0.001). ROC curve analyses revealed that the C-statistics of CHADS2-MS and CHA2DS2-VASc-MS was significantly higher than those of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores (CHADS2-MS vs. CHADS2, 0.807 vs. 0.726, P = 0.0019). Furthermore, MS was helpful for identifying individuals with a high risk of LA/LAA thrombus in the population with a low risk of stroke (CHADS2 or CHA2DS2-VASc score = 0). Conclusions: MS is associated with LA/LAA thrombus risk in patients with NVAF. In addition to the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores, the CHADS2-MS and CHA2DS2-VASc-MS scores provide additional information on stroke risk assessment. PMID:27748329

  8. Recent advances in the management of chronic stable angina I: Approach to the patient, diagnosis, pathophysiology, risk stratification, and gender disparities

    PubMed Central

    Kones, Richard

    2010-01-01

    The potential importance of both prevention and personal responsibility in controlling heart disease, the leading cause of death in the USA and elsewhere, has attracted renewed attention. Coronary artery disease is preventable, using relatively simple and inexpensive lifestyle changes. The inexorable rise in the prevalence of obesity, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension, often in the risk cluster known as the metabolic syndrome, drives the ever-increasing incidence of heart disease. Population-wide improvements in personal health habits appear to be a fundamental, evidence based public health measure, yet numerous barriers prevent implementation. A common symptom in patients with coronary artery disease, classical angina refers to the typical chest pressure or discomfort that results when myocardial oxygen demand rises and coronary blood flow is reduced by fixed, atherosclerotic, obstructive lesions. Different forms of angina and diagnosis, with a short description of the significance of pain and silent ischemia, are discussed in this review. The well accepted concept of myocardial oxygen imbalance in the genesis of angina is presented with new data about clinical pathology of stable angina and acute coronary syndromes. The roles of stress electrocardiography and stress myocardial perfusion scintigraphic imaging are reviewed, along with the information these tests provide about risk and prognosis. Finally, the current status of gender disparities in heart disease is summarized. Enhanced risk stratification and identification of patients in whom procedures will meaningfully change management is an ongoing quest. Current guidelines emphasize efficient triage of patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Many experts believe the predictive value of current decision protocols for coronary artery disease still needs improvement in order to optimize outcomes, yet avoid unnecessary coronary angiograms and radiation exposure. Coronary angiography remains the

  9. A Novel Risk Stratification to Predict Local-Regional Failures in Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder After Radical Cystectomy

    SciTech Connect

    Baumann, Brian C.; Guzzo, Thomas J.; He Jiwei; Keefe, Stephen M.; Tucker, Kai; Bekelman, Justin E.; Hwang, Wei-Ting; Vaughn, David J.; Malkowicz, S. Bruce; Christodouleas, John P.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Local-regional failures (LF) following radical cystectomy (RC) plus pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) with or without chemotherapy for invasive urothelial bladder carcinoma are more common than previously reported. Adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) could reduce LF but currently has no defined role because of previously reported morbidity. Modern techniques with improved normal tissue sparing have rekindled interest in RT. We assessed the risk of LF and determined those factors that predict recurrence to facilitate patient selection for future adjuvant RT trials. Methods and Materials: From 1990-2008, 442 patients with urothelial bladder carcinoma at University of Pennsylvania were prospectively followed after RC plus PLND with or without chemotherapy with routine pelvic computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). One hundred thirty (29%) patients received chemotherapy. LF was any pelvic failure detected before or within 3 months of distant failure. Competing risk analyses identified factors predicting increased LF risk. Results: On univariate analysis, pathologic stage {>=}pT3, <10 nodes removed, positive margins, positive nodes, hydronephrosis, lymphovascular invasion, and mixed histology significantly predicted LF; node density was marginally predictive, but use of chemotherapy, number of positive nodes, type of surgical diversion, age, gender, race, smoking history, and body mass index were not. On multivariate analysis, only stage {>=}pT3 and <10 nodes removed were significant independent LF predictors with hazard ratios of 3.17 and 2.37, respectively (P<.01). Analysis identified 3 patient subgroups with significantly different LF risks: low-risk ({<=}pT2), intermediate-risk ({>=}pT3 and {>=}10 nodes removed), and high-risk ({>=}pT3 and <10 nodes) with 5-year LF rates of 8%, 23%, and 42%, respectively (P<.01). Conclusions: This series using routine CT and MRI surveillance to detect LF confirms that such failures are relatively common

  10. Reflex and Tonic Autonomic Markers for Risk Stratification in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Surviving Acute Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Barthel, Petra; Bauer, Axel; Müller, Alexander; Junk, Nadine; Huster, Katharina M.; Ulm, Kurt; Malik, Marek; Schmidt, Georg

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Diabetic postinfarction patients are at increased mortality risk compared with nondiabetic postinfarction patients. In a substantial number of these patients, diabetic cardiac neuropathy already preexists at the time of the infarction. In the current study we investigated if markers of autonomic dysfunction can further discriminate diabetic postinfarction patients into low- and high-risk groups. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We prospectively enrolled 481 patients with type 2 diabetes who survived acute myocardial infarction (MI), were aged ≤80 years, and presented in sinus rhythm. Primary end point was total mortality at 5 years of follow-up. Severe autonomic failure (SAF) was defined as coincidence of abnormal autonomic reflex function (assessed by means of heart rate turbulence) and of abnormal autonomic tonic activity (assessed by means of deceleration capacity of heart rate). Multivariable risk analyses considered SAF and standard risk predictors including history of previous MI, arrhythmia on Holter monitoring, insulin treatment, and impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤30%. RESULTS During follow-up, 83 of the 481 patients (17.3%) died. Of these, 24 deaths were sudden cardiac deaths and 21 nonsudden cardiac deaths. SAF identified a high-risk group of 58 patients with a 5-year mortality rate of 64.0% at a sensitivity level of 38.0%. Multivariately, SAF was the strongest predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 4.9 [95% CI 2.4–9.9]), followed by age ≥65 years (3.4 [1.9–5.8]), and LVEF ≤30% (2.6 [1.5–4.4]). CONCLUSIONS Combined abnormalities of autonomic reflex function and autonomic tonic activity identifies diabetic postinfarction patients with very poor prognoses. PMID:21680727

  11. Lake Layers: Stratification.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brothers, Chris; And Others

    This teacher guide and student workbook set contains two learning activities, designed for fifth through ninth grade students, that concentrate on lake stratification and water quality. In the activities students model the seasonal temperature changes that occur in temperate lakes and observe the resulting stratification of lake waters. Students…

  12. A MicroRNA Panel in Pancreatic Cyst Fluid for the Risk Stratification of Pancreatic Cysts in a Prospective Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Utomo, WK; Looijenga, LH; Bruno, MJ; Hansen, BE; Gillis, AJM; Biermann, K; Peppelenbosch, MP; Fuhler, GM; Braat, H

    2016-01-01

    A subset of pancreatic cystic neoplasms are regarded as precursor lesions of pancreatic cancer, but only a minority of all pancreatic cystic neoplasms will undergo malignant transformation. MicroRNAs are increasingly recognized as molecular targets in carcinogenesis. Previously, a 9-microRNA (miR) signature was suggested to discriminate between high risk and low risk pancreatic cystic neoplasm. In this study, we aimed to validate this 9-miR panel in a prospective cohort. Total miR was isolated from pancreatic cyst fluid and expression of miR18a, miR24, miR30a-3p, miR92a, miR99b, miR106b, miR142-3p, miR342-3p, and miR532-3p was analyzed by singleplex Taqman MicroRNA Assay. A total of 62 patient samples were analyzed. During follow-up, 24 (38.7%) patients underwent resection, of which 6 (9.7%) patients showed at least high grade dysplasia. A logistic regression model presented a “predicted risk” score which significantly differed between low and high risk cysts, either including all patients or only those with histological confirmation of diagnosis. Using a set cut-off of 50%, the sensitivity of the model for the total cohort was 10.0%, specificity 100.0%, positive predicted value 100.0%, negative predicted value 85.2%, and diagnostic accuracy of 85.5%. Thus, while observing a significant difference between low and high risk cysts, clinical implementation of this biomarker panel is as yet unlikely to be beneficial in the management of pancreatic cysts.

  13. Comparison of risk assessment strategies for not-high-risk pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Hobohm, Lukas; Hellenkamp, Kristian; Hasenfuß, Gerd; Münzel, Thomas; Konstantinides, Stavros; Lankeit, Mareike

    2016-04-01

    We compared the prognostic performance of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk stratification algorithm with the previous 2008 ESC algorithm, the Bova score and the modified FAST score (based on a positive heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) test, syncope and tachycardia, modified using high-sensitivity troponin T instead of H-FABP) in 388 normotensive pulmonary embolism patients included in a single-centre cohort study.Overall, 25 patients (6.4%) had an adverse 30-day outcome. Regardless of the score or algorithm used, the rate of an adverse outcome was highest in the intermediate-high-risk classes, while all patients classified as low-risk had a favourable outcome (no pulmonary embolism-related deaths, 0-1.4% adverse outcome). The area under the curve for predicting an adverse outcome was higher for the 2014 ESC algorithm (0.76, 95% CI 0.68-0.84) compared with the 2008 ESC algorithm (0.65, 95% CI 0.56-0.73) and highest for the modified FAST score (0.82, 95% CI 0.75-0.89). Patients classified as intermediate-high-risk by the 2014 ESC algorithm had a 8.9-fold increased risk for an adverse outcome (3.2-24.2, p<0.001 compared with intermediate-low- and low-risk patients), while the highest OR was observed for a modified FAST score ≥3 points (OR 15.9, 95% CI 5.3-47.6, p<0.001).The 2014 ESC algorithm improves risk stratification of not-high-risk pulmonary embolism compared with the 2008 ESC algorithm. All scores and algorithms accurately identified low-risk patients, while the modified FAST score appears more suitable to identify intermediate-high-risk patients. PMID:26743479

  14. Age-adjusted high-sensitivity troponin T cut-off value for risk stratification of pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Kaeberich, Anja; Seeber, Valerie; Jiménez, David; Kostrubiec, Maciej; Dellas, Claudia; Hasenfuß, Gerd; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Pruszczyk, Piotr; Konstantinides, Stavros; Lankeit, Mareike

    2015-05-01

    High-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) helps in identifying pulmonary embolism patients at low risk of an adverse outcome. In 682 normotensive pulmonary embolism patients we investigate whether an optimised hsTnT cut-off value and adjustment for age improve the identification of patients at elevated risk. Overall, 25 (3.7%) patients had an adverse 30-day outcome. The established hsTnT cut-off value of 14 pg·mL(-1) retained its high prognostic value (OR (95% CI) 16.64 (2.24-123.74); p=0.006) compared with the cut-off value of 33 pg·mL(-1) calculated by receiver operating characteristic analysis (7.14 (2.64-19.26); p<0.001). In elderly (aged ≥75 years) patients, an age-optimised hsTnT cut-off value of 45 pg·mL(-1) but not the established cut-off value of 14 pg·mL(-1) predicted an adverse outcome. An age-adjusted hsTnT cut-off value (≥14 pg·mL(-1) for patients aged <75 years and ≥45 pg·mL(-1) for patients aged ≥75 years) provided additive and independent prognostic information on top of the simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) and echocardiography (OR 4.56 (1.30-16.01); p=0.018, C-index=0.77). A three-step approach based on the sPESI, hsTnT and echocardiography identified 16.6% of all patients as being at higher risk (12.4% adverse outcome). Risk assessment of normotensive pulmonary embolism patients was improved by the introduction of an age-adjusted hsTnT cut-off value. A three-step approach helped identify patients at higher risk of an adverse outcome who might benefit from advanced therapy.

  15. Risk Stratification by Self-Measured Home Blood Pressure across Categories of Conventional Blood Pressure: A Participant-Level Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Asayama, Kei; Thijs, Lutgarde; Brguljan-Hitij, Jana; Niiranen, Teemu J.; Hozawa, Atsushi; Boggia, José; Aparicio, Lucas S.; Hara, Azusa; Johansson, Jouni K.; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Tzourio, Christophe; Stergiou, George S.; Sandoya, Edgardo; Tsuji, Ichiro; Jula, Antti M.; Imai, Yutaka; Staessen, Jan A.

    2014-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Diseases Study 2010 reported that hypertension is worldwide the leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease, causing 9.4 million deaths annually. We examined to what extent self-measurement of home blood pressure (HBP) refines risk stratification across increasing categories of conventional blood pressure (CBP). Methods and Findings This meta-analysis included 5,008 individuals randomly recruited from five populations (56.6% women; mean age, 57.1 y). All were not treated with antihypertensive drugs. In multivariable analyses, hazard ratios (HRs) associated with 10-mm Hg increases in systolic HBP were computed across CBP categories, using the following systolic/diastolic CBP thresholds (in mm Hg): optimal, <120/<80; normal, 120–129/80–84; high-normal, 130–139/85–89; mild hypertension, 140–159/90–99; and severe hypertension, ≥160/≥100. Over 8.3 y, 522 participants died, and 414, 225, and 194 had cardiovascular, cardiac, and cerebrovascular events, respectively. In participants with optimal or normal CBP, HRs for a composite cardiovascular end point associated with a 10-mm Hg higher systolic HBP were 1.28 (1.01–1.62) and 1.22 (1.00–1.49), respectively. At high-normal CBP and in mild hypertension, the HRs were 1.24 (1.03–1.49) and 1.20 (1.06–1.37), respectively, for all cardiovascular events and 1.33 (1.07–1.65) and 1.30 (1.09–1.56), respectively, for stroke. In severe hypertension, the HRs were not significant (p≥0.20). Among people with optimal, normal, and high-normal CBP, 67 (5.0%), 187 (18.4%), and 315 (30.3%), respectively, had masked hypertension (HBP≥130 mm Hg systolic or ≥85 mm Hg diastolic). Compared to true optimal CBP, masked hypertension was associated with a 2.3-fold (1.5–3.5) higher cardiovascular risk. A limitation was few data from low- and middle-income countries. Conclusions HBP substantially refines risk stratification at CBP levels assumed to carry no or only mildly increased

  16. EBV-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma of the elderly: 2016 update on diagnosis, risk-stratification, and management.

    PubMed

    Castillo, Jorge J; Beltran, Brady E; Miranda, Roberto N; Young, Ken H; Chavez, Julio C; Sotomayor, Eduardo M

    2016-05-01

    Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) of the elderly is a provisional entity included in the 2008 WHO classification of lymphoid neoplasms. It is a disease typically seen in the elderly and thought to be associated with chronic EBV infection and severe immunosuppression with a component of immunosenescence. Recent research, however, has suggested that EBV-positive DLBCL can be seen in younger, immunocompetent patients. The diagnosis of EBV-positive DLBCL of the elderly is made through a careful pathological evaluation. The differential diagnosis includes infectious mononucleosis (specifically in younger patients), lymphomatoid granulomatosis, Hodgkin lymphoma, and gray zone lymphoma, among others. Detection of EBV-encoded RNA (EBER) is considered standard for diagnosis; however, a clear cutoff for positivity has not been defined. The International Prognostic Index (IPI), and the Oyama score can be used for risk-stratification. The Oyama score includes age >70 years and presence of B symptoms. The expression of CD30 is emerging as a potential adverse, and targetable, prognostic factor. Patients with EBV-positive DLBCL should be staged and managed following similar guidelines than patients with EBV-negative DLBCL. It has been suggested, however, that EBV-positive patients have a worse prognosis than EBV-negative counterparts in the era of chemoimmunotherapy. There is an opportunity to study and develop targeted therapy in the management of patients with EBV-positive DLBCL.

  17. Stratification of risk to the surgical team in removal of small arms ammunition implanted in the craniofacial region: case report.

    PubMed

    Forbes, Jonathan A; Laughlin, Ian; Newberry, Shane; Ryhn, Michael; Pasley, Jason; Newberry, Travis

    2016-09-01

    In cases of penetrating injury with implantation of small arms ammunition, it can often be difficult to tell the difference between simple ballistics and ballistics associated with unexploded ordnances (UXOs). In the operative environment, where highly flammable substances are often close to the surgical site, detonation of UXOs could have catastrophic consequences for both the patient and surgical team. There is a paucity of information in the literature regarding how to evaluate whether an implanted munition contains explosive material. This report describes a patient who presented during Operation Enduring Freedom with an implanted munition suspicious for a UXO and the subsequent workup organized by Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) Company prior to surgical removal. Clinical risk factors for UXOs include assassination attempts and/or wartime settings. Specific radiological features suggestive of a UXO include projectile size greater than 7.62-mm caliber, alterations in density of the tip, as well as radiological evidence of a hollowed-out core. If an implanted UXO is suspected, risks to the surgical and anesthesia teams can be minimized by notifying the nearest military installation with EOD capabilities and following clinical practice guidelines set forth by the Joint Theater Trauma System. PMID:26832604

  18. Comparison of Cardiac and Non-Cardiac Biomarkers for Risk Stratification in Elderly Patients with Non-Massive Pulmonary Embolism

    PubMed Central

    Méan, Marie; Limacher, Andreas; Lescuyer, Pierre; Gerstel, Eric; Bounameaux, Henri; Aujesky, Drahomir; Righini, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Biomarkers unrelated to myocardial necrosis, such as cystatin C, copeptin, and mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM), showed promise for cardiovascular risk prediction. Knowing whether they are comparable to cardiac biomarkers such as high-sensitive cardiac-troponin T (hs-cTnT) or N-terminal pro-Brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in elderly patients with acute non-massive pulmonary embolism (NMPE) remains elusive. This study aims at comparing the prognostic accuracy of cardiac and non-cardiac biomarkers in patients with NMPE aged ≥65 years over time. In the context of the SWITCO65+ cohort, we evaluated 227 elderly patients with an available blood sample taken within one day from diagnosis. The primary study endpoint was defined as PE-related mortality and the secondary endpoint as PE-related complications. The biomarkers’ predictive ability at 1, 3, 12 and 24 months was determined using C-statistics and Cox regression. For both study endpoints, C-statistics (95% confidence interval) were stable over time for all biomarkers, with the highest value for hs-cTnT, ranging between 0.84 (0.68–1.00) and 0.80 (0.70–0.90) for the primary endpoint, and between 0.74 (0.63–0.86) and 0.65 (0.57–0.73) for the secondary endpoint. For both study endpoints, cardiac biomarkers were found to be independently associated with risk, NT-proBNP displaying a negative predictive value of 100%. Among non-cardiac biomarkers, only copeptin and MR-proADM were independent predictors of PE-related mortality but they were not independent predictors of PE-related complications, and displayed lower negative predictive values. In elderly NMPE patients, cardiac biomarkers appear to be valuable prognostic to identify very low-risk individuals. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00973596 PMID:27219621

  19. The Burden of Hard Atherosclerotic Plaques Does Not Promote Endoleak Development After Endovascular Aortic Aneurysm Repair: A Risk Stratification

    SciTech Connect

    Petersen, Johannes Glodny, Bernhard

    2011-10-15

    Purpose: To objectify the influence of the atherosclerotic burden in the proximal landing zone on the development of endoleaks after endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) or thoracic endovascular aneurysm repair (TEVAR) using objective aortic calcium scoring (ACS). Materials and Methods: This retrospective observation study included 267 patients who received an aortic endograft between 1997 and 2010 and for whom preoperative computed tomography (CT) was available to perform ACS using the CT-based V600 method. The mean follow-up period was 2 {+-} 2.3 years. Results: Type I endoleaks persisted in 45 patients (16.9%), type II in 34 (12.7%), type III in 8 (3%), and type IV or V in 3 patients, respectively (1.1% each). ACS in patients with type I endoleaks was not increased: 0.029 {+-} 0.061 ml compared with 0.075 {+-} 0.1349 ml in the rest of the patients, (p > 0.05; Whitney-Mann U-Test). There were significantly better results for the indication 'traumatic aortic rupture' than for the other indications (p < 0.05). In multivariate logistic regression analyses, age was an independent risk factor for the development of type I endoleaks in the thoracic aorta (Wald 9.5; p = 0.002), whereas ACS score was an independent protective factor (Wald 6.9; p = 0.009). In the abdominal aorta, neither age nor ACS influenced the development of endoleaks. Conclusion: Contrary to previous assumptions, TEVAR and EVAR can be carried out without increasing the risk of an endoleak of any type, even if there is a high atherosclerotic 'hard-plaque' burden of the aorta. The results are significantly better for traumatic aortic.

  20. Systematic Review of Metabolic Syndrome Biomarkers: A Panel for Early Detection, Management, and Risk Stratification in the West Virginian Population

    PubMed Central

    Srikanthan, Krithika; Feyh, Andrew; Visweshwar, Haresh; Shapiro, Joseph I.; Sodhi, Komal

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Metabolic syndrome represents a cluster of related metabolic abnormalities, including central obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, hyperglycemia, and insulin resistance, with central obesity and insulin resistance in particular recognized as causative factors. These metabolic derangements present significant risk factors for cardiovascular disease, which is commonly recognized as the primary clinical outcome, although other outcomes are possible. Metabolic syndrome is a progressive condition that encompasses a wide array of disorders with specific metabolic abnormalities presenting at different times. These abnormalities can be detected and monitored via serum biomarkers. This review will compile a list of promising biomarkers that are associated with metabolic syndrome and this panel can aid in early detection and management of metabolic syndrome in high risk populations, such as in West Virginia. Methods: A literature review was conducted using PubMed, Science Direct, and Google Scholar to search for markers related to metabolic syndrome. Biomarkers searched included adipokines (leptin, adiponectin), neuropeptides (ghrelin), pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α), anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-10), markers of antioxidant status (OxLDL, PON-1, uric acid), and prothrombic factors (PAI-1). Results: According to the literature, the concentrations of pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α), markers of pro-oxidant status (OxLDL, uric acid), and prothrombic factors (PAI-1) were elevated in metabolic syndrome. Additionally, leptin concentrations were found to be elevated in metabolic syndrome as well, likely due to leptin resistance. In contrast, concentrations of anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-10), ghrelin, adiponectin, and antioxidant factors (PON-1) were decreased in metabolic syndrome, and these decreases also correlated with specific disorders within the cluster. Conclusion: Based on the evidence presented within the literature, the

  1. Noninvasive cardiac risk stratification of diabetic and nondiabetic uremic renal allograft candidates using dipyridamole-thallium-201 imaging and radionuclide ventriculography

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, K.A.; Rimmer, J.; Haisch, C. )

    1989-11-01

    The ability of noninvasive risk stratification using dipyridamole-thallium-201 (Tl-201) imaging and radionuclide ventriculography to predict perioperative and long-term cardiac events (myocardial infarction or cardiac death) was evaluated in 36 uremic diabetic and 29 nondiabetic candidates for renal allograft surgery. Of the 35 patients who underwent renal allograft surgery 8 +/- 7 months after the study, none had transient Tl-201 defects (although 13 had depressed left ventricular ejection fraction) and none developed perioperative cardiac events. During a mean follow-up of 23 +/- 11 months, 6 (9%) patients developed cardiac events. Logistic regression analysis was used to compare the predictive value of clinical data (including age, sex, diabetes, chest pain history, allograft recipient) and radionuclide data. Presence of transient Tl-201 defect and left ventricular ejection fraction were the only significant predictors of future cardiac events (p less than 0.01). No other patient variables, including diabetes or receiving a renal allograft, had either univariate or multivariate predictive value. All 3 patients with transient Tl-201 defects had cardiac events compared with only 3 of 62 (5%) patients without transient Tl-201 defect (p less than 0.0001). Mean left ventricular ejection fraction was lower in patients with cardiac events (44 +/- 13%) compared with patients without cardiac events (57 +/- 9%, p less than 0.005). Overall, 5 of 6 patients with cardiac events had either transient Tl-201 defects or depressed left ventricular ejection fraction. Dipyridamole-Tl-201 imaging and radionuclide ventriculography may be helpful in identifying uremic candidates for renal allograft surgery who are at low risk for perioperative and long-term cardiac events.

  2. Improved Clinical Risk Stratification in Patients with Long QT Syndrome? Novel Insights from Multi-Channel ECGs

    PubMed Central

    Samol, Alexander; Gönes, Mehmet; Zumhagen, Sven; Bruns, Hans-Jürgen; Paul, Matthias; Vahlhaus, Christian; Waltenberger, Johannes; Schulze-Bahr, Eric; Eckardt, Lars; Mönnig, Gerold

    2016-01-01

    Background We investigated whether multichannel ECG-recordings are useful to risk-stratify patients with congenital long-QT syndrome (LQTS) for risk of sudden cardiac death under optimized medical treatment. Methods In 34 LQTS-patients (11 male; age 31±13 years, QTc 478±51ms; LQT1 n = 8, LQT2 n = 15) we performed a standard 12-channel ECG and a 120-channel body surface potential mapping. The occurrence of clinical events (CE; syncope, torsade de pointes (TdP), sudden cardiac arrest (SCA)) was documented and correlated with different ECG-parameters in all lead positions. Results Seven patients developed TdP, four survived SCA and 12 experienced syncope. 12/34 had at least one CE. CE was associated with a longer QTc-interval (519±43ms vs. 458±42ms; p = 0.001), a lower T-wave integral (TWI) on the left upper chest (-1.2±74.4mV*ms vs. 63.0±29.7mV*ms; p = 0.001), a lower range of T-wave amplitude (TWA) in the region of chest lead V8 (0.10±0.08mV vs. 0.18±0.07mV; p = 0.008) and a longer T-peak-T-end time (TpTe) in lead V1 (98±23ms vs. 78±26ms; p = 0.04). Receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) analyses revealed a sensitivity of 96% and a specificity of 75% (area under curve (AUC) 0.89±0.06, p = 0.001) at a cut-off value of 26.8mV*ms for prediction of CE by TWI, a sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 83% at a cut-off value of 0.11mV (AUC 0.83±0.09, p = 0.002) for prediction of CE by TWA and a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 73% at a cut-off value of 87ms (AUC 0.80±0.07, p = 0.005) for prediction of CE by TpTe. Conclusions Occurrence of CE in LQTS-patients seems to be associated with a prolonged, low-amplitude T-wave. PMID:27379800

  3. Concussion risk factors and strategies for prevention.

    PubMed

    Kerr, Hamish A

    2014-12-01

    Concussion in children is frequently related to participation in sports. It requires a traumatic event to occur that transmits acceleration to the brain. Some children may have intrinsic risk factors that place them at greater risk for this type of injury. Comorbidities such as attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, migraine headaches, and mood disorders may place athletes at increased risk of more severe injury. A previous concussion is probably the most important influence on risk for future injury. Extrinsic risk factors include coaching techniques, officiating, and choice of sport. Helmet choice does not diminish concussion risk, nor does the use of mouth guards. Education of athletes, coaches, parents, and physicians is very important in improving recognition of potential concussive injury and helping child athletes and their parents understand the risks involved in sport participation. PMID:25486039

  4. Roadmap to risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) success

    PubMed Central

    Balian, John D.; Malhotra, Rachpal; Perentesis, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    Medical safety-related risk management is a rapidly evolving and increasingly important aspect of drug approval and market longevity. To effectively meet the challenges of this new era, we describe a risk management roadmap that proactively yet practically anticipates risk-management requirements, provides the foundation for enduring yet appropriately flexible risk-management practices, and leverages these techniques to efficiently and effectively utilize risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS)/risk minimization programs as market access enablers. This fully integrated risk-management paradigm creates exciting opportunities for newer tools, techniques, and approaches to more successfully optimize product development, approval, and commercialization, with patients as the ultimate beneficiaries. PMID:25083193

  5. Perceived Risk and Risk Reduction Strategies in Study Abroad Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Luethge, Denise J.

    2004-01-01

    The study abroad program (SAP) meets the criteria of a risky purchase, namely of being non-tangible, possessing hidden qualities, being expensive and cannot being able to be tested prior to purchase. In fact, SAPs may score highly on a number of risk components, especially financial risk (expensive), psychological risk (anxiety), physical risk…

  6. Time-dependent propensity score and collider-stratification bias: an example of beta2-agonist use and the risk of coronary heart disease.

    PubMed

    Sanni Ali, M; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Pestman, Wiebe R; Belitser, Svetlana V; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, A; Klungel, Olaf H

    2013-04-01

    Stratification and conditioning on time-varying cofounders which are also intermediates can induce collider-stratification bias and adjust-away the (indirect) effect of exposure. Similar bias could be expected when one conditions on time-dependent PS. We explored collider-stratification and confounding bias due to conditioning or stratifying on time-dependent PS using a clinical example on the effect of inhaled short- and long-acting beta2-agonist use (SABA and LABA, respectively) on coronary heart disease (CHD). In an electronic general practice database we selected a cohort of patients with an indication for SABA and/or LABA use and ascertained potential confounders and SABA/LABA use per three month intervals. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using PS stratification as well as covariate adjustment and compared with those of Marginal Structural Models (MSMs) in both SABA and LABA use separately. In MSMs, censoring was accounted for by including inverse probability of censoring weights.The crude HR of CHD was 0.90 [95 % CI: 0.63, 1.28] and 1.55 [95 % CI: 1.06, 2.62] in SABA and LABA users respectively. When PS stratification, covariate adjustment using PS, and MSMs were used, the HRs were 1.09 [95 % CI: 0.74, 1.61], 1.07 [95 % CI: 0.72, 1.60], and 0.86 [95 % CI: 0.55, 1.34] for SABA, and 1.09 [95 % CI: 0.74, 1.62], 1.13 [95 % CI: 0.76, 1.67], 0.77 [95 % CI: 0.45, 1.33] for LABA, respectively. Results were similar for different PS methods, but higher than those of MSMs. When treatment and confounders vary during follow-up, conditioning or stratification on time-dependent PS could induce substantial collider-stratification or confounding bias; hence, other methods such as MSMs are recommended.

  7. Risk stratification of patients with chronic heart failure using cardiac iodine‐123 metaiodobenzylguanidine imaging: incremental prognostic value over right ventricular ejection fraction

    PubMed Central

    Yamada, Takahisa; Morita, Takashi; Furukawa, Yoshio; Iwasaki, Yusuke; Kawasaki, Masato; Kikuchi, Atsushi; Kondo, Takumi; Kawai, Tsutomu; Takahashi, Satoshi; Ishimi, Masashi; Hakui, Hideyuki; Ozaki, Tatsuhisa; Sato, Yoshihiro; Seo, Masahiro; Sakata, Yasushi; Fukunami, Masatake

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Aims Right ventricular (RV) systolic dysfunction has been shown to be an independent predictor of clinical outcome in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF), and cardiac metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging also provides prognostic information. We aimed to evaluate the long‐term predictive value of combining RV systolic dysfunction and abnormal findings of cardiac MIBG imaging on outcome in CHF patients. Methods and results We enrolled 63 CHF outpatients with left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) <40% in a prospective cohort study. At entry, RVEF was measured by radionuclide angiography. Furthermore, cardiac MIBG imaging was performed, and the cardiac MIBG washout rate (WR) was calculated. Reduced RVEF was defined as ≤37%, and abnormal WR was defined as >27%. The study endpoint was unplanned hospitalization for worsening heart failure (WHF) and cardiac death. During a follow‐up period of 8.9 ± 4.3 years, 19 of 63 patients had unplanned hospitalization for WHF, and 19 of 63 patients had cardiac death. In multivariate analysis, both WR and RVEF were independent predictors of unplanned WHF hospitalization, while WR was also an independent predictor of cardiac death. A risk‐stratification model based on independent predictors of unplanned WHF hospitalization separated the patients into those with low (absence of the predictors), intermediate (one of the predictors), and high (two or more of the predictors) risk of unplanned WHF hospitalization (P < 0.0001) or cardiac death (P = 0.0113). Conclusions Cardiac MIBG imaging provides incremental value when it is used along with RV systolic dysfunction to predict clinical outcome in patients with CHF.

  8. Strategy Guideline: Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Berman, M.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.

    2012-12-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

  9. Strategy Guideline. Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Berman, M.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.

    2012-12-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) Building America team is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

  10. Phosphorus fertilization, soil stratification and potential water quality impacts

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Water quality experts have suggested that no-till induces phosphorus stratification, which may exacerbate soluble P runoff from agricultural fields, leading to eutrophication. The objectives of this study were to explore P fertilization strategies on P stratification and P runoff from a corn-soybea...

  11. Reducing the Risk, Increasing the Promise: Strategies for Student Success

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bergmann, Sherrel; Brough, Judith Allen

    2012-01-01

    In their new book, Bergmann and Brough provide a clear path to follow for helping your at-risk students achieve success in and out of the classroom. Packed with classroom-tested, practical strategies and lesson plans for teaching respect, responsibility, resilience, reading, and other essential skills to at-risk students, this is a must-have book…

  12. Improved Stratification of Autonomic Regulation for risk prediction in post-infarction patients with preserved left ventricular function (ISAR-Risk)

    PubMed Central

    Bauer, Axel; Barthel, Petra; Schneider, Raphael; Ulm, Kurt; Müller, Alexander; Joeinig, Anke; Stich, Raphael; Kiviniemi, Antti; Hnatkova, Katerina; Huikuri, Heikki; Schömig, Albert; Malik, Marek; Schmidt, Georg

    2009-01-01

    Aims To investigate the combination of heart rate turbulence (HRT) and deceleration capacity (DC) as risk predictors in post-infarction patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) > 30%. Methods and results We enrolled 2343 consecutive survivors of acute myocardial infarction (MI) (<76 years) in sinus rhythm. HRT and DC were obtained from 24 h Holter recordings. Patients with both abnormal HRT (slope ≤ 2.5 ms/RR and onset ≥ 0%) and abnormal DC (≤4.5 ms) were considered suffering from severe autonomic failure (SAF) and prospectively classified as high risk. Primary and secondary endpoints were all-cause, cardiac, and sudden cardiac mortality within the first 5 years of follow-up. During follow-up, 181 patients died; 39 deaths occurred in 120 patients with LVEF ≤ 30%, and 142 in 2223 patients with LVEF>30% (cumulative 5-year mortality rates of 37.9% and 7.8%, respectively). Among patients with LVEF > 30%, SAF identified another high-risk group of 117 patients with 37 deaths (cumulative 5-year mortality rates of 38.6% and 6.1%, respectively). Merging both high-risk groups (i.e. LVEF ≤ 30% and/or SAF) doubled the sensitivity of mortality prediction compared with LVEF ≤ 30% alone (21.1% vs. 42.1%, P < 0.001) while preserving 5-year mortality rate (38.2%). Conclusion In post-MI patients with LVEF>30%, SAF identifies a high-risk group equivalent in size and mortality risk to patients with LVEF ≤ 30%. PMID:19109245

  13. Temporal trends in the use of invasive cardiac procedures for non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndromes according to initial risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Jedrzkiewicz, Sean; Goodman, Shaun G; Yan, Raymond T; Welsh, Robert C; Kornder, Jan; DeYoung, J Paul; Wong, Graham C; Rose, Barry; Grondin, François R; Gallo, Richard; Huang, Wei; Gore, Joel M; Yan, Andrew T

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Current guidelines support an early invasive strategy in the management of high-risk non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS). Although studies in the 1990s suggested that high-risk patients received less aggressive treatment, there are limited data on the contemporary management patterns of NSTE-ACS in Canada. OBJECTIVE: To examine the in-hospital use of coronary angiography and revascularization in relation to risk among less selected patients with NSTE-ACS. METHODS: Data from the prospective, multicentre Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (main GRACE and expanded GRACE2) were used. Between June 1999 and September 2007, 7131 patients from across Canada with a final diagnosis of NSTE-ACS were included the study. The study population was stratified into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, based on their calculated GRACE risk score (a validated predictor of in-hospital mortality) and according to time of enrollment. RESULTS: While rates of in-hospital death and reinfarction were significantly (P<0.001) greater in higher-risk patients, the in-hospital use of cardiac catheterization in low- (64.7%), intermediate- (60.3%) and high-risk (42.3%) patients showed an inverse relationship (P<0.001). This trend persisted despite the increase in the overall rates of cardiac catheterization over time (47.9% in 1999 to 2003 versus 51.6% in 2004 to 2005 versus 63.8% in 2006 to 2007; P<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, intermediate-risk (adjusted OR 0.80 [95% CI 0.70 to 0.92], P=0.002) and high-risk (adjusted OR 0.38 [95% CI 0.29 to 0.48], P<0.001) patients remained less likely to undergo in-hospital cardiac catheterization. CONCLUSION: Despite the temporal increase in the use of invasive cardiac procedures, they remain paradoxically targeted toward low-risk patients with NSTE-ACS in contemporary practice. This treatment-risk paradox needs to be further addressed to maximize the benefits of invasive therapies in Canada. PMID:19898699

  14. Workplace violence in healthcare settings: risk factors and protective strategies.

    PubMed

    Gillespie, Gordon Lee; Gates, Donna M; Miller, Margaret; Howard, Patricia Kunz

    2010-01-01

    This article describes the risk factors and protective strategies associated with workplace violence perpetrated by patients and visitors against healthcare workers. Perpetrator risk factors for patients and visitors in healthcare settings include mental health disorders, drug or alcohol use, inability to deal with situational crises, possession of weapons, and being a victim of violence. Worker risk factors are gender, age, years of experience, hours worked, marital status, and previous workplace violence training. Setting and environmental risk factors for experiencing workplace violence include time of day and presence of security cameras. Protective strategies for combating the negative consequences of workplace violence include carrying a telephone, practicing self-defense, instructing perpetrators to stop being violent, self- and social support, and limiting interactions with potential or known perpetrators of violence. Workplace violence is a serious and growing problem that affects all healthcare professionals. Strategies are needed to prevent workplace violence and manage the negative consequences experienced by healthcare workers following violent events.

  15. European strategies against the parasite transfusion risk.

    PubMed

    Reesink, H W

    2005-02-01

    Protozoal infections are endemic in mainly tropical low income countries, affecting millions of people. Malaria, American trypanosomiasis (Trypanosoma cruzi/Chagas disease) and protozoal tickborne diseases (e.g. Babesia) can be efficiently transmitted by transfusion of cellular blood components. In non-endemic areas like Europe malaria, Chagas disease and Babesia are imported diseases resulting of travelling to endemic areas and migration of autochthons from these endemic areas. A recent International Forum showed that in Europe, as well as the USA, prevention of transfusion-associated protozoal infections depend mainly on selection of donors using questionnaires. Most countries divide donors at risk for malaria in two groups: individuals who have lived in the first 5 years of their life in malaria endemic areas and those who are borne and residing in non-endemic areas and visited the endemic area(s). The first category of donors is rejected for 3 years after their last visit to the endemic area, and in one country such donors are permanently rejected. In some countries such donors are accepted after 4 months-3 years, provided a test for malaria is non-reactive. Persons from non-endemic areas, who visited the malaria endemic area, are rejected for 4-12 months. Some countries reject these donors for 3 years or permanently when they resided for more than 6 months in the endemic area. The rejection rate of donors for malaria risk in the various countries was 0.003-0.43% of all donations. Over the last decade only a few cases of TT-malaria were reported in the various countries. In several countries donors are questioned for risk of T. cruzi infection. In some countries donors are excluded when they (or their mothers) were born in South or Central America, if they received a blood transfusion in these areas and if they lived in rural areas in these endemic countries for more than 4 weeks. In none of the countries donors are asked if they had Babesia or Leishmania. At

  16. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  17. Migration and stratification

    PubMed Central

    Jasso, Guillermina

    2011-01-01

    Migration and stratification are increasingly intertwined. One day soon it will be impossible to understand one without the other. Both focus on life chances. Stratification is about differential life chances - who gets what and why - and migration is about improving life chances - getting more of the good things of life. To examine the interconnections of migration and stratification, we address a mix of old and new questions, carrying out analyses newly enabled by a unique new data set on recent legal immigrants to the United States (the New Immigrant Survey). We look at immigrant processing and lost documents, depression due to the visa process, presentation of self, the race-ethnic composition of an immigrant cohort (made possible by the data for the first time since 1961), black immigration from Africa and the Americas, skin-color diversity among couples formed by U.S. citizen sponsors and immigrant spouses, and English fluency among children age 8–12 and their immigrant parents. We find, inter alia, that children of previously illegal parents are especially more likely to be fluent in English, that native-born U.S. citizen women tend to marry darker, that immigrant applicants who go through the visa process while already in the United States are more likely to have their documents lost and to suffer visa depression, and that immigration, by introducing accomplished black immigrants from Africa (notably via the visa lottery), threatens to overturn racial and skin color associations with skill. Our analyses show the mutual embeddedness of migration and stratification in the unfolding of the immigrants' and their children's life chances and the impacts on the stratification structure of the United States. PMID:26321771

  18. Opportunities and strategies for breast cancer prevention through risk reduction.

    PubMed

    Mahoney, Martin C; Bevers, Therese; Linos, Eleni; Willett, Walter C

    2008-01-01

    Due to the high incidence of breast cancer among US females, risk-reduction strategies are essential. Before considering approaches to breast cancer risk reduction, it is important for clinicians to complete individualized qualitative and quantitative assessments of risk for their patients in order to inform physicians' clinical decision making and management and to engage patients collaboratively in a thorough discussion of risks and benefits. This review will summarize information on potential pharmacologic, nutritional, surgical, and behavioral approaches to reducing breast cancer risk. While there is no clear evidence that specific dietary components can effectively reduce breast cancer risk, weight gain and obesity in adulthood are risk factors for the development of postmenopausal breast cancer. Alcohol consumption, even at moderate levels, increases breast cancer risk, although some of the detrimental effects may be reduced by sufficient folate intake. Women at increased risk of breast cancer can opt to reduce their breast cancer risk through the use of tamoxifen or raloxifene; other chemopreventive agents remain under investigation. Surgical approaches to risk reductions are restricted to those patients with a substantially increased risk of developing breast cancer. Patients should be encouraged to maintain a healthy lifestyle for their overall well-being and to remain up to date with recommendations for screening and surveillance. PMID:18981297

  19. SBRT for the Primary Treatment of Localized Prostate Cancer: The Effect of Gleason Score, Dose and Heterogeneity of Intermediate Risk on Outcome Utilizing 2.2014 NCCN Risk Stratification Guidelines

    PubMed Central

    Bernetich, Matthew; Oliai, Caspian; Lanciano, Rachelle; Hanlon, Alexandra; Lamond, John; Arrigo, Stephen; Yang, Jun; Good, Michael; Feng, Jing; Brown, Royce; Garber, Bruce; Mooreville, Michael; Brady, Luther W.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To report an update of our previous experience using stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for the primary treatment of prostate cancer, risk stratified by the updated National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) version 2.2014, reporting efficacy and toxicity in a community hospital setting. Methods: From 2007 to 2012, 142 localized prostate cancer patients were treated with SBRT using CyberKnife. NCCN guidelines Version 2.2014 risk groups analyzed included very low (20%), low (23%), intermediate (35%), and high (22%) risk. To further explore group heterogeneity and to comply with new guidelines, we separated our prior intermediate risk group into favorable intermediate and unfavorable intermediate groups depending on how many intermediate risk factors were present (one vs. > one). The unfavorable intermediate group was further analyzed in combination with the high risk group as per NCCN guidelines Version 2.2014. Various dose levels were used over the years of treatment, and have been categorized into low dose (35 Gy, n = 5 or 36.25 Gy, n = 107) and high dose (37.5 Gy, n = 30). All treatments were delivered in five fractions. Toxicity was assessed using radiation therapy oncology group criteria. Results: Five-year actuarial freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF) was 100, 91.7, 95.2, 90.0, and 86.7% for very low, low, intermediate and high risk patients, respectively. A significant difference in 5 year FFBF was noted for patients with Gleason score (GS) ≥8 vs. 7 vs. 5/6 (p = 0.03) and low vs. high dose (p = 0.05). T-stage, pretreatment PSA, age, risk stratification group, and use of ADT did not affect 5-year FFBF. Multivariate analysis revealed GS and dose to be the most predictive factors for 5-year FFBF. Conclusion: Our experience with SBRT for the primary treatment of localized prostate cancer demonstrates favorable efficacy and toxicity comparable to the results reported for IMRT in literature. GS remains the

  20. Effectiveness of landslide risk mitigation strategies in Shihmen Watershed, Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Chun-Yi; Chen, Su-Chin

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to establish landslide risk analysis procedures that can be used to analyze landslide risk in a watershed scale and to assess the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Landslide risk analysis encompassed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability of elements at risk, and community resilience capacity. First, landslide spatial probability, landslide temporal probability, and landslide area probability were joined to estimate the probability of landslides with an area exceeding a certain threshold in each slope unit. Second, the expected property and life losses were both analyzed in vulnerability analysis. Different elements at risk were assigned corresponding values, and then used in conjunction with the vulnerabilities to carry out quantitative analysis. Third, the resilience capacity of different communities was calculated based on the scores obtained through community checklists and the weights of individual items, including "the participation experience of disaster prevention drill," "real-time monitoring mechanism of community," "autonomous monitoring of residents," and "disaster prevention volunteer." Finally, the landslide probabilities, vulnerability analysis results, and resilience capacities were combined to assess landslide risk in Shihmen Watershed. In addition, the risks before and after the implementation of non-structural disaster prevention strategies were compared to determine the benefits of various strategies, and subsequently benefit-cost analysis was performed. Communities with high benefit-cost ratios included Hualing, Yisheng, Siouluan, and Gaoyi. The watershed as a whole had a benefit-cost ratio far greater than 1, indicating that the effectiveness of strategies was greater than the investment cost, and these measures were thus cost-effective. The results of factor sensitivity analysis revealed that changes in vulnerability and mortality rates would increase the uncertainty of risk, and that raise in annual

  1. [Mass gatherings - health risks and preventive strategies].

    PubMed

    Steffen, Robert

    2013-06-01

    Experience from mass gatherings - usually attended by at least 25'000 persons - shows that approximately one in a thousand participants will consult with an on-site medical emergency service. Communicable diseases usually play a minor role. Historically outbreaks of meningococcal disease were recorded after the hajj, but this has been well controlled in the past few years subsequent to vaccinations and other measures required by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia health authorities. Major stress of the regional public health system is associated with accidents and non-communicable diseases, the majority being trivial. Host and environmental risk factors can result in a dramatic increase in the rate of consultations: Age and pre-existing illness play a decisive role particularly in pilgrims, be that in Mecca or Lourdes. Emotional factors may influence behavior; aggressions can develop. Alcohol and drugs, also the duration of an event may play a decisive role. Extreme climatic conditions, both heat and cold, also exhaustion result in a dramatic increase of emergency consultations. Infrastructure must be adapted for the crowd size, particularly stampede associated disasters can be avoided. The World Health Organization and other interested expert groups have in the past few years formulated interdisciplinary programs for prevention.

  2. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

    ScienceCinema

    None

    2016-07-12

    Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

  3. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

    SciTech Connect

    2009-11-04

    Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

  4. New Horizons Risk Communication Strategy, Planning, Implementation, and Lessons Learned

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dawson, Sandra A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the risk communication goals, strategy, planning process and product development for the New Horizons mission, including lessons from the Cassini mission that were applied in that effort, and presents lessons learned from the New Horizons effort that could be applicable to future missions.

  5. Fertility drugs, reproductive strategies and ovarian cancer risk.

    PubMed

    Tomao, Federica; Lo Russo, Giuseppe; Spinelli, Gian Paolo; Stati, Valeria; Prete, Alessandra Anna; Prinzi, Natalie; Sinjari, Marsela; Vici, Patrizia; Papa, Anselmo; Chiotti, Maria Stefania; Benedetti Panici, Pierluigi; Tomao, Silverio

    2014-01-01

    Several adverse effects have been related to infertility treatments, such as cancer development. In particular, the relationship between infertility, reproductive strategies, and risk of gynecological cancers has aroused much interest in recent years. The evaluation of cancer risk among women treated for infertility is very complex, mainly because of many factors that can contribute to occurrence of cancer in these patients (including parity status). This article addresses the possible association between the use of fertility treatments and the risk of ovarian cancer, through a scrupulous search of the literature published thus far in this field. Our principal objective was to give more conclusive answers on the question whether the use of fertility drug significantly increases ovarian cancer risk. Our analysis focused on the different types of drugs and different treatment schedules used. This study provides additional insights regarding the long-term relationships between fertility drugs and risk of ovarian cancer.

  6. Innovative tools for assessing risks for severe adverse events in areas of overlapping Loa loa and other filarial distributions: the application of micro-stratification mapping

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The wide distribution of Loa loa infection (loiasis) throughout the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is a major obstacle to the plans to eliminate onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis (LF) because the standard drug regime is dependent on ivermectin, which cannot be used in co-endemic areas due to the risk of severe adverse events (SAEs). A better understanding of the micro-epidemiology, overlapping low and high risk areas, and how they relate to SAEs is critical to ensure safe and effective treatment. Findings Based on published data from the Bas Congo Province in DRC, this study used geographical information systems (GIS) to re-map and analyse onchocerciasis and loiasis prevalence (<20%, 20 to 40%, >40%) at 144 sites in relation to health district areas reporting SAEs. The new maps highlighted the contrasting patterns of the high prevalence sites, and significant geographical overlap between low onchocerciasis and high loiasis sites. Statistical analyses found that sites with medium to high loiasis prevalence were 10 to 16 times more likely to be in a SAE area than those with low prevalence of loiasis. Sites where both onchocerciasis and loiasis prevalence was >20% were also associated with SAE areas. Conclusions Collaborative efforts between the national onchocerciasis and LF programmes are critical as plans to scale interventions are moving forward and thus, alternative strategies needed in loiasis co-endemic areas which may include the new L. loa test and treat strategy using the Cellscope, or interventions such as integrated vector management, or anti Wolbachia therapy using doxycycline. PMID:24992829

  7. Risk Preferences, Probability Weighting, and Strategy Tradeoffs in Wildfire Management.

    PubMed

    Hand, Michael S; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Calkin, David E; Thompson, Matthew P

    2015-10-01

    Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to federal wildfire managers. Respondents were presented with a multiattribute lottery-choice experiment where each lottery is defined by three outcome attributes: expenditures for fire suppression, damage to private property, and exposure of firefighters to the risk of aviation-related fatalities. Respondents choose one of two strategies, each of which includes "good" (low cost/low damage) and "bad" (high cost/high damage) outcomes that occur with varying probabilities. The choice task also incorporates an information framing experiment to test whether information about fatality risk to firefighters alters managers' responses to risk. Results suggest that managers exhibit risk aversion and nonlinear probability weighting, which can result in choices that do not minimize expected expenditures, property damage, or firefighter exposure. Information framing tends to result in choices that reduce the risk of aviation fatalities, but exacerbates nonlinear probability weighting.

  8. Risk Preferences, Probability Weighting, and Strategy Tradeoffs in Wildfire Management.

    PubMed

    Hand, Michael S; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Calkin, David E; Thompson, Matthew P

    2015-10-01

    Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to federal wildfire managers. Respondents were presented with a multiattribute lottery-choice experiment where each lottery is defined by three outcome attributes: expenditures for fire suppression, damage to private property, and exposure of firefighters to the risk of aviation-related fatalities. Respondents choose one of two strategies, each of which includes "good" (low cost/low damage) and "bad" (high cost/high damage) outcomes that occur with varying probabilities. The choice task also incorporates an information framing experiment to test whether information about fatality risk to firefighters alters managers' responses to risk. Results suggest that managers exhibit risk aversion and nonlinear probability weighting, which can result in choices that do not minimize expected expenditures, property damage, or firefighter exposure. Information framing tends to result in choices that reduce the risk of aviation fatalities, but exacerbates nonlinear probability weighting. PMID:26269258

  9. Using risk elasticity to prioritize risk reduction strategies for geographical areas and industry sectors.

    PubMed

    Li, Pei-Chiun; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2016-01-25

    The total quantity of chemical emissions does not take into account their chemical toxicity, and fails to be an accurate indicator of the potential impact on human health. The sources of released contaminants, and therefore, the potential risk, also differ based on geography. Because of the complexity of the risk, there is no integrated method to evaluate the effectiveness of risk reduction. Therefore, this study developed a method to incorporate the spatial variability of emissions into human health risk assessment to evaluate how to effectively reduce risk using risk elasticity analysis. Risk elasticity analysis, the percentage change in risk in response to the percentage change in emissions, was adopted in this study to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of risk reduction. The results show that the main industry sectors are different in each area, and that high emission in an area does not correspond to high risk. Decreasing the high emissions of certain sectors in an area does not result in efficient risk reduction in this area. This method can provide more holistic information for risk management, prevent the development of increased risk, and prioritize the risk reduction strategies.

  10. Vascular Disease and Risk Stratification for Ischemic Stroke and All-Cause Death in Heart Failure Patients without Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation: A Nationwide Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Melgaard, Line; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Rasmussen, Lars Hvilsted; Lip, Gregory Y. H.; Larsen, Torben Bjerregaard

    2016-01-01

    Background Stroke and mortality risk among heart failure patients previously diagnosed with different manifestations of vascular disease is poorly described. We conducted an observational study to evaluate the stroke and mortality risk among heart failure patients without diagnosed atrial fibrillation and with peripheral artery disease (PAD) or prior myocardial infarction (MI). Methods Population-based cohort study of patients diagnosed with incident heart failure during 2000–2012 and without atrial fibrillation, identified by record linkage between nationwide registries in Denmark. Hazard rate ratios of ischemic stroke and all-cause death after 1 year of follow-up were used to compare patients with either: a PAD diagnosis; a prior MI diagnosis; or no vascular disease. Results 39,357 heart failure patients were included. When compared to heart failure patients with no vascular disease, PAD was associated with a higher 1-year rate of ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard rate ratio [HR]: 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08–1.65) and all-cause death (adjusted HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.35–1.59), whereas prior MI was not (adjusted HR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.86–1.15 and 0.94, 95% CI: 0.89–1.00, for ischemic stroke and all-cause death, respectively). When comparing patients with PAD to patients with prior MI, PAD was associated with a higher rate of both outcomes. Conclusions Among incident heart failure patients without diagnosed atrial fibrillation, a previous diagnosis of PAD was associated with a significantly higher rate of the ischemic stroke and all-cause death compared to patients with no vascular disease or prior MI. Prevention strategies may be particularly relevant among HF patients with PAD. PMID:27015524

  11. Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and smoldering multiple myeloma: a review of the current understanding of epidemiology, biology, risk stratification, and management of myeloma precursor disease.

    PubMed

    Agarwal, Amit; Ghobrial, Irene M

    2013-03-01

    The term monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) was coined in 1978. The recent advances in our knowledge about MGUS and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) have helped us better understand the pathogenesis of myeloma. It seems that myeloma evolves from a precursor state in almost all cases. We do not completely understand the multistep process from the precursor state to myeloma, but studies like whole genome sequencing continue to improve our understanding of this process. The process of transformation may not be linear acquisition of changes, but rather a branched heterogeneous process. Clinical features that are prognostic of rapid transformation have been identified, but no specific molecular markers have been identified. Even with recent advances, multiple myeloma remains an incurable disease in the vast majority, and intervening at the precursor state provides a unique opportunity to alter the natural history of the disease. A limitation is that a vast majority of patients with precursor disease, especially low-risk MGUS, will never progress to myeloma in their lifetime, and treating these patients is not only unnecessary but may be potentially harmful. The challenge is to identify a subset of patients with the precursor state that would definitely progress to myeloma and in whom interventions will have a meaningful impact. As our understanding of the molecular and genetic processes improves, these studies will guide the selection of high-risk patients more appropriately and ultimately direct a tailored management strategy to either delay progression to symptomatic myeloma or even "cure" a person at this premalignant stage. PMID:23224402

  12. Advances in Risk Classification and Treatment Strategies for Neuroblastoma.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Navin R; Applebaum, Mark A; Volchenboum, Samuel L; Matthay, Katherine K; London, Wendy B; Ambros, Peter F; Nakagawara, Akira; Berthold, Frank; Schleiermacher, Gudrun; Park, Julie R; Valteau-Couanet, Dominique; Pearson, Andrew D J; Cohn, Susan L

    2015-09-20

    Risk-based treatment approaches for neuroblastoma have been ongoing for decades. However, the criteria used to define risk in various institutional and cooperative groups were disparate, limiting the ability to compare clinical trial results. To mitigate this problem and enhance collaborative research, homogenous pretreatment patient cohorts have been defined by the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group classification system. During the past 30 years, increasingly intensive, multimodality approaches have been developed to treat patients who are classified as high risk, whereas patients with low- or intermediate-risk neuroblastoma have received reduced therapy. This treatment approach has resulted in improved outcome, although survival for high-risk patients remains poor, emphasizing the need for more effective treatments. Increased knowledge regarding the biology and genetic basis of neuroblastoma has led to the discovery of druggable targets and promising, new therapeutic approaches. Collaborative efforts of institutions and international cooperative groups have led to advances in our understanding of neuroblastoma biology, refinements in risk classification, and stratified treatment strategies, resulting in improved outcome. International collaboration will be even more critical when evaluating therapies designed to treat small cohorts of patients with rare actionable mutations. PMID:26304901

  13. Advances in Risk Classification and Treatment Strategies for Neuroblastoma

    PubMed Central

    Pinto, Navin R.; Applebaum, Mark A.; Volchenboum, Samuel L.; Matthay, Katherine K.; London, Wendy B.; Ambros, Peter F.; Nakagawara, Akira; Berthold, Frank; Schleiermacher, Gudrun; Park, Julie R.; Valteau-Couanet, Dominique; Pearson, Andrew D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Risk-based treatment approaches for neuroblastoma have been ongoing for decades. However, the criteria used to define risk in various institutional and cooperative groups were disparate, limiting the ability to compare clinical trial results. To mitigate this problem and enhance collaborative research, homogenous pretreatment patient cohorts have been defined by the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group classification system. During the past 30 years, increasingly intensive, multimodality approaches have been developed to treat patients who are classified as high risk, whereas patients with low- or intermediate-risk neuroblastoma have received reduced therapy. This treatment approach has resulted in improved outcome, although survival for high-risk patients remains poor, emphasizing the need for more effective treatments. Increased knowledge regarding the biology and genetic basis of neuroblastoma has led to the discovery of druggable targets and promising, new therapeutic approaches. Collaborative efforts of institutions and international cooperative groups have led to advances in our understanding of neuroblastoma biology, refinements in risk classification, and stratified treatment strategies, resulting in improved outcome. International collaboration will be even more critical when evaluating therapies designed to treat small cohorts of patients with rare actionable mutations. PMID:26304901

  14. Advances in Risk Classification and Treatment Strategies for Neuroblastoma.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Navin R; Applebaum, Mark A; Volchenboum, Samuel L; Matthay, Katherine K; London, Wendy B; Ambros, Peter F; Nakagawara, Akira; Berthold, Frank; Schleiermacher, Gudrun; Park, Julie R; Valteau-Couanet, Dominique; Pearson, Andrew D J; Cohn, Susan L

    2015-09-20

    Risk-based treatment approaches for neuroblastoma have been ongoing for decades. However, the criteria used to define risk in various institutional and cooperative groups were disparate, limiting the ability to compare clinical trial results. To mitigate this problem and enhance collaborative research, homogenous pretreatment patient cohorts have been defined by the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group classification system. During the past 30 years, increasingly intensive, multimodality approaches have been developed to treat patients who are classified as high risk, whereas patients with low- or intermediate-risk neuroblastoma have received reduced therapy. This treatment approach has resulted in improved outcome, although survival for high-risk patients remains poor, emphasizing the need for more effective treatments. Increased knowledge regarding the biology and genetic basis of neuroblastoma has led to the discovery of druggable targets and promising, new therapeutic approaches. Collaborative efforts of institutions and international cooperative groups have led to advances in our understanding of neuroblastoma biology, refinements in risk classification, and stratified treatment strategies, resulting in improved outcome. International collaboration will be even more critical when evaluating therapies designed to treat small cohorts of patients with rare actionable mutations.

  15. HIV and smoking: associated risks and prevention strategies.

    PubMed

    Kariuki, Wanjiku; Manuel, Jennifer I; Kariuki, Ngaruiya; Tuchman, Ellen; O'Neal, Johnnie; Lalanne, Genevieve A

    2016-01-01

    High rates of smoking among persons living with HIV (PLWH) may reduce the effectiveness of HIV treatment and contribute to significant morbidity and mortality. Factors associated with smoking in PLWH include mental health comorbidity, alcohol and drug use, health-related quality of life, smoking among social networks and supports, and lack of access to care. PLWH smokers are at a higher risk of numerous HIV-associated infections and non-HIV related morbidity, including a decreased response to antiretroviral treatment, impaired immune functioning, reduced cognitive functioning, decreased lung functioning, and cardiovascular disease. Seventeen smoking cessation interventions were identified, of which seven were randomized controlled trials. The most effective studies combined behavioral and pharmacotherapy treatments that incorporated comprehensive assessments, multiple sessions, and cognitive-behavioral and motivational strategies. Smoking cessation interventions that are tailored to the unique needs of diverse samples and incorporate strategies to reduce the risk of relapse are essential to advancing health outcomes in PLWH. PMID:26766919

  16. HIV and smoking: associated risks and prevention strategies

    PubMed Central

    Kariuki, Wanjiku; Manuel, Jennifer I; Kariuki, Ngaruiya; Tuchman, Ellen; O’Neal, Johnnie; Lalanne, Genevieve A

    2016-01-01

    High rates of smoking among persons living with HIV (PLWH) may reduce the effectiveness of HIV treatment and contribute to significant morbidity and mortality. Factors associated with smoking in PLWH include mental health comorbidity, alcohol and drug use, health-related quality of life, smoking among social networks and supports, and lack of access to care. PLWH smokers are at a higher risk of numerous HIV-associated infections and non-HIV related morbidity, including a decreased response to antiretroviral treatment, impaired immune functioning, reduced cognitive functioning, decreased lung functioning, and cardiovascular disease. Seventeen smoking cessation interventions were identified, of which seven were randomized controlled trials. The most effective studies combined behavioral and pharmacotherapy treatments that incorporated comprehensive assessments, multiple sessions, and cognitive-behavioral and motivational strategies. Smoking cessation interventions that are tailored to the unique needs of diverse samples and incorporate strategies to reduce the risk of relapse are essential to advancing health outcomes in PLWH. PMID:26766919

  17. Plan your organization's Medicare risk strategy using enrollment, disenrollment data.

    PubMed

    1998-05-01

    Data File: We've expanded this month's column to feature the details of two studies on Medicare enrollment and disenrollment trends--important information that can help you fine-tune your Medicare risk strategy. You'll find the top counties poised for growth, a report card on how HMOs are retaining or losing their members, and tips for spotting plans that could spell trouble because of volatile membership. PMID:10338753

  18. Nighttime parenting strategies and sleep-related risks to infants.

    PubMed

    Volpe, Lane E; Ball, Helen L; McKenna, James J

    2013-02-01

    A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004. Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may

  19. Nighttime Parenting Strategies and Sleep-Related Risks to Infants

    PubMed Central

    Volpe, Lane E.; Ball, Helen L.; McKenna, James J.

    2012-01-01

    A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004.Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may help

  20. Workplace strategies for the control of work-related risks.

    PubMed

    Kogi, K

    1993-10-01

    The prevention of work-related diseases and disorders, including those of neuropsychobehavioral nature, calls for integrated action to improve both job content and the working environment. Recent international labor standards have highlighted the importance of a good safety and health management system that ensures the assessment of risks and the appropriate control of these risks. Internationally, programs to cope with work-related risks place an increasing emphasis on participatory management of preventive measures, practical methods of risk assessment, and immediate improvements with the support of action-oriented training and information. Psychosocial factors, work performance, and job content need special attention. Workplace strategies must be developed by active participation of employers and workers, with their informed consent. These strategies and linked training activities should build on local practice and achievements rather than administrative models and be geared to the real local needs. In coping with the neurobehavioral effects, international sharing of positive experiences is useful especially with respect to: (i) providing information on potential neurobehavioral effects including labeling, safety datasheets, and precautions; (ii) providing practical advice about locally achieved improvements; (iii) providing action-oriented training; and (iv) creating opportunities for participatory workplace improvements.

  1. Bioastronautics Roadmap: A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap is the framework used to identify and assess the risks to crews exposed to the hazardous environments of space. It guides the implementation of research strategies to prevent or reduce those risks. Although the BCPR identifies steps that must be taken to reduce the risks to health and performance that are associated with human space flight, the BCPR is not a "critical path" analysis in the strict engineering sense. The BCPR will evolve to accommodate new information and technology development and will enable NASA to conduct a formal critical path analysis in the future. As a management tool, the BCPR provides information for making informed decisions about research priorities and resource allocation. The outcome-driven nature of the BCPR makes it amenable for assessing the focus, progress and success of the Bioastronautics research and technology program. The BCPR is also a tool for communicating program priorities and progress to the research community and NASA management.

  2. Noncontact anterior cruciate ligament injuries: risk factors and prevention strategies.

    PubMed

    Griffin, L Y; Agel, J; Albohm, M J; Arendt, E A; Dick, R W; Garrett, W E; Garrick, J G; Hewett, T E; Huston, L; Ireland, M L; Johnson, R J; Kibler, W B; Lephart, S; Lewis, J L; Lindenfeld, T N; Mandelbaum, B R; Marchak, P; Teitz, C C; Wojtys, E M

    2000-01-01

    An estimated 80,000 anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears occur annually in the United States. The highest incidence is in individuals 15 to 25 years old who participate in pivoting sports. With an estimated cost for these injuries of almost a billion dollars per year, the ability to identify risk factors and develop prevention strategies has widespread health and fiscal importance. Seventy percent of ACL injuries occur in noncontact situations. The risk factors for non-contact ACL injuries fall into four distinct categories: environmental, anatomic, hormonal, and biomechanical. Early data on existing neuromuscular training programs suggest that enhancing body control may decrease ACL injuries in women. Further investigation is needed prior to instituting prevention programs related to the other risk factors.

  3. Knowledge of risk management strategies, and information and risk management preferences of women at increased risk for ovarian cancer.

    PubMed

    Tiller, K; Meiser, B; Gould, L; Tucker, K; Dudding, T; Franklin, J; Friedlander, M; Andrews, L

    2005-04-01

    Little research is available on the level of knowledge about ovarian cancer risk management options in women at increased risk for this disease. The study objectives were to evaluate this together with the information and ovarian cancer risk management preferences of high-risk women. One hundred and twenty-nine women were assessed after their attendance at one of six familial cancer clinics in relation to knowledge of surveillance and/or preventative strategies for reduction of ovarian cancer risk, preferences for particular strategies, and information preferences. Screening was selected by 57 (44%) women as the preferred risk management option. One hundred and five women (82%) indicated a wish for as much information as possible about ovarian cancer, including both good and bad outcomes and 114 (89%) reported a preference for sharing treatment decisions with their health professional. Participants' knowledge about ovarian cancer risk management options was significantly associated with educational levels (Z = -3.2, p=0.001) and whether or not ovarian cancer was included in the family history (Z = -2.3, p = 0.018). Findings from this present study indicate that women at increased risk of ovarian cancer who attend familial cancer clinics want as much information as possible about this disease and they want to be involved in the decision-making process. Women who reported a lower level of education (no post-school qualifications) may be most likely to benefit from additional educational strategies designed to supplement genetic counseling to improve their knowledge levels.

  4. Risk stratification algorithm for management of patients with dual modular taper total hip arthroplasty: consensus statement of the American Association of Hip and Knee Surgeons, the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons and the Hip Society.

    PubMed

    Kwon, Young-Min; Fehring, Thomas K; Lombardi, Adolph V; Barnes, C Lowry; Cabanela, Miguel E; Jacobs, Joshua J

    2014-11-01

    Although 'dual taper' modular stems with interchangeable modular necks have the potential to optimize hip biomechanical parameters, there is increasing concern regarding the occurrence of adverse local tissue reactions from mechanically assisted crevice corrosion at the neck-stem taper junction. A systematic treatment approach (risk stratification algorithm) based on the currently available data is recommended to optimize patient management. While specialized tests such as metal ion analysis and MARS MRI are useful modalities in evaluating for adverse tissue reactions, over-reliance on any single investigative tool in the clinical decision-making process should be avoided. There should be a low threshold to perform a systematic evaluation of patients with dual taper stem total hip arthroplasty as early recognition and diagnosis will facilitate the initiation of appropriate treatment. PMID:25189673

  5. Consumer interpretation of ramipril and clopidogrel medication risk information – implications for risk communication strategies

    PubMed Central

    Tong, Vivien; Raynor, David K; Blalock, Susan J; Aslani, Parisa

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Side effects and side-effect risk information can be provided using written medicine information. However, challenges exist in effectively communicating this information to consumers. This study aimed to explore broad consumer profiles relevant to ramipril and clopidogrel side-effect risk information interpretation. Methods Three focus groups were conducted (n=18 consumers) exploring consumer perspectives, understanding and treatment decision making in response to ramipril and clopidogrel written medicine information leaflets containing side effects and side-effect risk information. All discussions were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed to explore consumer profiles pertaining to side-effect risk appraisal. Results Three consumer profiles emerged: glass half-empty, glass half-full, and middle-of-the-road consumers, highlighting the influence of perceived individual susceptibility, interpretation of side-effect risk information, and interindividual differences, on consumers’ understanding of side-effect risk information. All profiles emphasized the importance of gaining an understanding of individual side-effect risk when taking medicines. Conclusion Written side-effect risk information is not interpreted uniformly by consumers. Consumers formulated their own construct of individual susceptibility to side effects. Health care professionals should consider how consumers interpret side-effect risk information and its impact on medication use. Existing risk communication strategies should be evaluated in light of these profiles to determine their effectiveness in conveying information. PMID:26185427

  6. ASTARTE: Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baptista, M. A.; Yalciner, A. C.; Canals, M.

    2014-12-01

    Tsunamis are low frequency but high impact natural disasters. In 2004, the Boxing Day tsunami killed hundreds of thousands of people from many nations along the coastlines of the Indian Ocean. Tsunami run-up exceeded 35 m. Seven years later, and in spite of some of the best warning technologies and levels of preparedness in the world, the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in Japan dramatically showed the limitations of scientific knowledge on tsunami sources, coastal impacts and mitigation measures. The experience from Japan raised serious questions on how to improve the resilience of coastal communities, to upgrade the performance of coastal defenses, to adopt a better risk management, and also on the strategies and priorities for the reconstruction of damaged coastal areas. Societal resilience requires the reinforcement of capabilities to manage and reduce risk at national and local scales.ASTARTE (Assessment STrategy And Risk for Tsunami in Europe), a 36-month FP7 project, aims to develop a comprehensive strategy to mitigate tsunami impact in this region. To achieve this goal, an interdisciplinary consortium has been assembled. It includes all CTWPs of NEAM and expert institutions across Europe and worldwide. ASTARTE will improve i) basic knowledge of tsunami generation and recurrence going beyond simple catalogues, with novel empirical data and new statistical analyses for assessing long-term recurrence and hazards of large events in sensitive areas of NEAM, ii) numerical techniques for tsunami simulation, with focus on real-time codes and novel statistical emulation approaches, and iii) methods for assessment of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. ASTARTE will also provide i) guidelines for tsunami Eurocodes, ii) better tools for forecast and warning for CTWPs and NTWCs, and iii) guidelines for decision makers to increase sustainability and resilience of coastal communities. In summary, ASTARTE will develop basic scientific and technical elements allowing for a significant

  7. Complications in colorectal surgery: risk factors and preventive strategies

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Backround Open or laparoscopic colorectal surgery comprises of many different types of procedures for various diseases. Depending upon the operation and modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors the intra- and postoperative morbidity and mortality rate vary. In general, surgical complications can be divided into intraoperative and postoperative complications and usually occur while the patient is still in the hospital. Methods A literature search (1980-2009) was carried out, using MEDLINE, PubMed and the Cochrane library. Results This review provides an overview how to identify and minimize intra- and postoperative complications. The improvement of different treatment strategies and technical inventions in the recent decade has been enormous. This is mainly attributable to the increase in the laparoscopic approach, which is now well accepted for many procedures. Training of the surgeon, hospital volume and learning curves are becoming increasingly more important to maximize patient safety, surgeon expertise and cost effectiveness. In addition, standardization of perioperative care is essential to minimize postoperative complications. Conclusion This review summarizes the main perioperative complications of colorectal surgery and influencable and non-influencable risk factors which are important to the general surgeon and the relevant specialist as well. In order to minimize or even avoid complications it is crucial to know these risk factors and strategies to prevent, treat or reduce intra- and postoperative complications. PMID:20338045

  8. Strategies for risk-adapted therapy in myeloma.

    PubMed

    Fonseca, Rafael

    2007-01-01

    It is clear that the clinical heterogeneity of multiple myeloma (MM) is dictated, in large part, by disease biology, predominantly genetics.(1) As novel therapeutics have emerged, and augmented our treatment armamentarium against the disease, it is increasingly important to introduce a risk-adapted approach for the optimal management of patients.(2) The selection of ideal candidates for high-dose chemotherapy with stem cell support (HDT) and maintenance will undoubtedly have to include baseline knowledge of the genetic nature of the individual. The limited duration of responses after HDT for patients with t(4;14)(p16;q32), t(14;16)(q32;q23) and 17p13 deletions highlight the need to develop a risk-adapted treatment strategy.(3)(-)(5) Novel ways of determining outcome such as the use of gene expression profiling have demonstrated differentiating capabilities not previously observed.(6) Likewise, the order of introduction of novel therapeutic agents (during induction and in the relapsing patient) will be potentially directed by similar information. As we have previously stated, MM is not only multiple but also "many."(7) Accordingly, treatment strategies will be tailored based on risk determination, genetic composition and host features.

  9. Smoking and HIV: prevalence, health risks, and cessation strategies.

    PubMed

    Lifson, Alan R; Lando, Harry A

    2012-09-01

    Health hazards due to smoking may undermine benefits of HIV treatment on morbidity and mortality. Over 40% of persons with HIV are current smokers. Health risks of smoking include increases in some HIV-associated infections, cardiovascular disease, some cancers, bacterial pneumonia and other lung disease, and overall mortality. Proven strategies for smoking cessation include various counseling approaches, nicotine replacement therapy and other pharmacotherapy; approaches may need to be individualized to address specific client needs and comorbidities. HIV clinicians and other service providers can have an influential role in screening their patients for smoking and promoting cessation programs to improve health.

  10. A nutritional strategy for reducing disease and obesity risks.

    PubMed

    Lavecchia, Teresa; Petroni, Paolo; Rodio, Giuseppe; Pina, Riccardo

    2010-01-01

    Overweight and obesity are the most common nutritional disorders in our age and are becoming more and more common worldwide. The most harmful consequences of an incorrect diet leading to overweight or obesity are a series of cardio-vascular diseases often leading to disability and death. In recent years various studies have shown that a reduction in caloric intake is the main factor involved in reduction of pathology risk. In this article, a nutrition strategy, based on the Zone diet by US biochemist Dr. Barry Sears is proposed. It underlines the importance of choosing certain types of foods over others, their beneficial physiological effects on the human body and how they can reduce the risk of heart disease and cancer.

  11. Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

    PubMed

    Gabardi, Steven

    2011-07-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area

  12. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    PubMed

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices. PMID:22171604

  13. Landslide risk reduction strategies: an inventory for the Global South

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maes, Jan; Kervyn, Matthieu; Vranken, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Mertens, Kewan; Jacobs, Liesbet; Poesen, Jean

    2015-04-01

    Landslides constitute a serious problem globally. Moreover, landslide impact remains underestimated especially in the Global South. It is precisely there where the largest impact is experienced. An overview of measures taken to reduce risk of landslides in the Global South is however still lacking. Because in many countries of the Global South disaster risk reduction (DRR) is at an emerging stage, it is crucial to monitor the ongoing efforts (e.g. discussions on the Post-2015 Framework for DRR). The first objective of this study is to make an inventory of techniques and strategies that are applied to reduce risk from landslides in tropical countries. The second objective is to investigate what are the main bottlenecks for implementation of DRR strategies. In order to achieve these objectives, a review of both scientific and grey literature was conducted, supplemented with expert knowledge. The compilation of recommended and implemented DRR measures from landslide-prone tropical countries is based on an adapted classification proposed by the SafeLand project. According to Vaciago (2013), landslide risk can be reduced by either reducing the hazard, the vulnerability, the number or value of elements at risk or by sharing the residual risk. In addition, these measures can be combined with education and/or awareness raising and are influenced by governance structures and cultural beliefs. Global landslide datasets have been used to identify landslide-prone countries, augmented with region-specific datasets. Countries located in the tropics were selected in order to include landslide-prone countries with a different Human Development Index (HDI) but with a similar climate. Preliminary results support the statement made by Anderson (2013) that although the importance of shifting from post-disaster emergency actions to pre-disaster mitigation is acknowledged, in practice this paradigm shift seems rather limited. It is expected that this is especially the case in countries

  14. Analyzing nocturnal noise stratification.

    PubMed

    Rey Gozalo, Guillermo; Barrigón Morillas, Juan Miguel; Gómez Escobar, Valentín

    2014-05-01

    Pollution associated to traffic can be considered as one of the most relevant pollution sources in our cities; noise is one of the major components of traffic pollution; thus, efforts are necessary to search adequate noise assessment methods and low pollution city designs. Different methods have been proposed for the evaluation of noise in cities, including the categorization method, which is based on the functionality concept. Until now, this method has only been studied (with encouraging results) for short-term, diurnal measurements, but nocturnal noise presents a behavior clearly different on respect to the diurnal one. In this work 45 continuous measurements of approximately one week each in duration are statistically analyzed to identify differences between the proposed categories. The results show that the five proposed categories highlight the noise stratification of the studied city in each period of the day (day, evening, and night). A comparison of the continuous measurements with previous short-term measurements indicates that the latter can be a good approximation of the former in diurnal period, reducing the resource expenditure for noise evaluation. Annoyance estimated from the measured noise levels was compared with the response of population obtained from a questionnaire with good agreement. The categorization method can yield good information about the distribution of a pollutant associated to traffic in our cities in each period of the day and, therefore, is a powerful tool for town planning and the design of pollution prevention policies.

  15. Cybergrooming: risk factors, coping strategies and associations with cyberbullying.

    PubMed

    Wachs, Sebastian; Wolf, Karsten D; Pan, Ching-Ching

    2012-11-01

    The use of information and communication technologies has become ubiquitous among adolescents. New forms of cyber aggression have emerged, cybergrooming is one of them. However, little is known about the nature and extent of cybergrooming. The purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors of being cybergroomed, to identify various coping strategies and to explore the associations between being cyberbullied and cybergroomed. The sample consisted of 518 students in 6th to 10th grades. The computer assisted personal interview method (CAPI method) was implemented. The «Mobbing Questionnaire for Students» by Jäger et al. (2007) was further developed for this study and served as the research instrument. While being a girl, being cyberbullied and willingness to meet strangers could be identified as risk factors; no significant age differences were found. Furthermore, three types of coping strategies - aggressive, cognitive-technical and helpless - with varied impacts were identified. The findings not only shed light on understanding cybergrooming, but also suggest worth noting associations between various forms of cyber aggression. PMID:23079362

  16. Cybergrooming: risk factors, coping strategies and associations with cyberbullying.

    PubMed

    Wachs, Sebastian; Wolf, Karsten D; Pan, Ching-Ching

    2012-11-01

    The use of information and communication technologies has become ubiquitous among adolescents. New forms of cyber aggression have emerged, cybergrooming is one of them. However, little is known about the nature and extent of cybergrooming. The purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors of being cybergroomed, to identify various coping strategies and to explore the associations between being cyberbullied and cybergroomed. The sample consisted of 518 students in 6th to 10th grades. The computer assisted personal interview method (CAPI method) was implemented. The «Mobbing Questionnaire for Students» by Jäger et al. (2007) was further developed for this study and served as the research instrument. While being a girl, being cyberbullied and willingness to meet strangers could be identified as risk factors; no significant age differences were found. Furthermore, three types of coping strategies - aggressive, cognitive-technical and helpless - with varied impacts were identified. The findings not only shed light on understanding cybergrooming, but also suggest worth noting associations between various forms of cyber aggression.

  17. Assessment of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies in Oncology: Summary of the Oncology Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies Workshop

    PubMed Central

    Frame, James N.; Jacobson, Joseph O.; Vogel, Wendy H.; Griffith, Niesha; Wariabharaj, Darshan; Garg, Rekha; Zon, Robin; Stephens, Cyntha L.; Bialecki, Alison M.; Bruinooge, Suanna S.; Allen, Steven L.

    2013-01-01

    To address oncology community stakeholder concerns regarding implementation of the Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) program, ASCO sponsored a workshop to gather REMS experiences from representatives of professional societies, patient organizations, pharmaceutical companies, and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Stakeholder presentations and topical panel discussions addressed REMS program development, implementation processes, and practice experiences, as well as oncology drug safety processes. A draft REMS decision tool prepared by the ASCO REMS Steering Committee was presented for group discussion with facilitated, goal-oriented feedback. The workshop identified several unintended consequences resulting from current oncology REMS: (1) the release of personal health information to drug sponsors as a condition for gaining access to a needed drug; (2) risk information that is not tailored—and therefore not accessible—to all literacy levels; (3) exclusive focus on drug risk, thereby affecting patient-provider treatment discussion; (4) REMS elements that do not consider existing, widely practiced oncology safety standards, professional training, and experience; and (5) administrative burdens that divert the health care team from direct patient care activities and, in some cases, could limit patient access to important therapies. Increased provider and professional society participation should form the basis of ongoing and future REMS standardization discussions with the FDA to work toward overall improvement of risk communication. PMID:23814522

  18. HIPAA and information security risk: implementing an enterprise-wide risk management strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alberts, Christopher J.; Dorofee, Audrey

    2001-08-01

    The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) of 1996 effectively establishes a standard of due care for healthcare information security. One of the challenges of implementing policies, procedures, and practices consistent with HIPAA requirements in the Department of Defense Military Health System is the need for a method that can tailor the requirements to a variety of organizational contexts. This paper will describe a self- directed information security risk evaluation that will enable military healthcare providers to assess their risks and to develop mitigation strategies consistent with HIPAA guidelines.

  19. Prognostic Factors for Risk Stratification of Patients with Recurrent or Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma Who Were Treated with Gemcitabine-Based Chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Park, Inkeun; Choi, Seung Joon; Kim, Young Saing; Ahn, Hee Kyung; Hong, Junshik; Sym, Sun Jin; Park, Jinny; Cho, Eun Kyung; Lee, Jae Hoon; Shin, Yong Ju; Shin, Dong Bok

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this study was to verify prognostic factors including sarcopenia in patients with recurrent or metastatic pancreatic cancer receiving gemcitabine-based chemotherapy. Materials and Methods Medical records and computed tomography scan of consecutive patients treated with palliative gemcitabine-based chemotherapy from 2008 to 2014 were reviewed. The lumbar skeletal muscle index at third lumbar spine level was computed, and together with clinicolaboratory factors, univariate and multivariable analyses for overall survival (OS) were performed. Results A total of 88 patients were found. Median age was 65 years, and male patients were predominant (67.0%). Most patients had initially metastatic disease (72.7%), and gemcitabine monotherapy was administered in 29 patients (33.0%) while gemcitabine plus erlotinib was administered in 59 patients (67.0%). Seventy-six patients (86.3%) had sarcopenia. With a median follow-up period of 44.3 months (range, 0.6 to 44.3 months), median OS was 5.35 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.11 to 6.59). In univariate and multivariable analysis, high carcinoembryonic antigen level (hazard ratio [HR], 4.18; 95% CI, 1.95 to 8.97; p < 0.001), initially metastatic disease (HR, 3.37; 95% CI, 1.55 to 7.32; p=0.002), sarcopenia (HR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.20 to 7.36; p=0.019), neutrophilia (HR, 2.94; 95% CI, 1.27 to 6.79; p=0.012), and high lactate dehydrogenase level (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.07 to 3.58; p=0.029) were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS. Conclusion Five independent prognostic factors in patients with recurrent or metastatic pancreatic cancer who received gemcitabine-based chemotherapy were identified. These findings may be helpful in prediction of prognosis in clinical practice and can be used as a stratification factor for clinical trials. PMID:27034148

  20. Nonlinear analysis of the heartbeats in public patient ECGs using an automated PD2i algorithm for risk stratification of arrhythmic death

    PubMed Central

    Skinner, James E; Anchin, Jerry M; Weiss, Daniel N

    2008-01-01

    Heart rate variability (HRV) reflects both cardiac autonomic function and risk of arrhythmic death (AD). Reduced indices of HRV based on linear stochastic models are independent risk factors for AD in post-myocardial infarct cohorts. Indices based on nonlinear deterministic models have a significantly higher sensitivity and specificity for predicting AD in retrospective data. A need exists for nonlinear analytic software easily used by a medical technician. In the current study, an automated nonlinear algorithm, the time-dependent point correlation dimension (PD2i), was evaluated. The electrocardiogram (ECG) data were provided through an National Institutes of Health-sponsored internet archive (PhysioBank) and consisted of all 22 malignant arrhythmia ECG files (VF/VT) and 22 randomly selected arrhythmia files as the controls. The results were blindly calculated by automated software (Vicor 2.0, Vicor Technologies, Inc., Boca Raton, FL) and showed all analyzable VF/VT files had PD2i < 1.4 and all analyzable controls had PD2i > 1.4. Five VF/VT and six controls were excluded because surrogate testing showed the RR-intervals to contain noise, possibly resulting from the low digitization rate of the ECGs. The sensitivity was 100%, specificity 85%, relative risk > 100; p < 0.01, power > 90%. Thus, automated heartbeat analysis by the time-dependent nonlinear PD2i-algorithm can accurately stratify risk of AD in public data made available for competitive testing of algorithms. PMID:18728829

  1. The first Latin-American risk stratification system for cardiac surgery: can be used as a graphic pocket-card score.

    PubMed

    Carosella, Victorio C; Navia, Jose L; Al-Ruzzeh, Sharif; Grancelli, Hugo; Rodriguez, Walter; Cardenas, Cesar; Bilbao, Jorge; Nojek, Carlos

    2009-08-01

    This study aims to develop the first Latin-American risk model that can be used as a simple, pocket-card graphic score at bedside. The risk model was developed on 2903 patients who underwent cardiac surgery at the Spanish Hospital of Buenos Aires, Argentina, between June 1994 and December 1999. Internal validation was performed on 708 patients between January 2000 and June 2001 at the same center. External validation was performed on 1087 patients between February 2000 and January 2007 at three other centers in Argentina. In the development dataset the area under receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was 0.73 and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test was P=0.88. In the internal validation ROC curve was 0.77. In the external validation ROC curve was 0.81, but imperfect calibration was detected because the observed in-hospital mortality (3.96%) was significantly lower than the development dataset (8.20%) (P<0.0001). Recalibration was done in 2007, showing excellent level of agreement between the observed and predicted mortality rates on all patients (P=0.92). This is the first risk model for cardiac surgery developed in a population of Latin-America with both internal and external validation. A simple graphic pocket-card score allows an easy bedside application with acceptable statistic precision.

  2. BAYESIAN BICLUSTERING FOR PATIENT STRATIFICATION.

    PubMed

    Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Ester, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The move from Empirical Medicine towards Personalized Medicine has attracted attention to Stratified Medicine (SM). Some methods are provided in the literature for patient stratification, which is the central task of SM, however, there are still significant open issues. First, it is still unclear if integrating different datatypes will help in detecting disease subtypes more accurately, and, if not, which datatype(s) are most useful for this task. Second, it is not clear how we can compare different methods of patient stratification. Third, as most of the proposed stratification methods are deterministic, there is a need for investigating the potential benefits of applying probabilistic methods. To address these issues, we introduce a novel integrative Bayesian biclustering method, called B2PS, for patient stratification and propose methods for evaluating the results. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of B2PS over a popular state-of-the-art method and the benefits of Bayesian approaches. Our results agree with the intuition that transcriptomic data forms a better basis for patient stratification than genomic data.

  3. Risk stratification of adult emergency department syncope patients to predict short-term serious outcomes after discharge (RiSEDS) study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background While Canadian ED physicians discharge most syncope patients with no specific further follow-up, approximately 5% will suffer serious outcomes after ED discharge. The goal of this study is to prospectively identify risk factors and to derive a clinical decision tool to accurately predict those at risk for serious outcomes after ED discharge within 30 days. Methods/Design We will conduct a prospective cohort study at 6 Canadian EDs to include adults with syncope and exclude patients with loss of consciousness > 5 minutes, mental status changes from baseline, obvious witnessed seizure, or head trauma prior to syncope. Emergency physicians will collect standardized clinical variables including historical features, physical findings, and results of immediately available tests (blood, ECG, and ED cardiac monitoring) prior to ED discharge/hospital admission. A second emergency physician will evaluate approximately 10% of study patients for interobserver agreement calculation of predictor variables. The primary outcome will be a composite serious outcome occurring within 30 days of ED discharge and includes three distinct categories: serious adverse events (death, arrhythmia); identification of serious underlying disease (structural heart disease, aortic dissection, pulmonary embolism, severe pulmonary hypertension, subarachnoid hemorrhage, significant hemorrhage, myocardial infarction); or procedures to treat the cause of syncope. The secondary outcome will be any of the above serious outcomes either suspected or those occurring in the ED. A blinded Adjudication Committee will confirm all serious outcomes. Univariate analysis will be performed to compare the predictor variables in patients with and without primary outcome. Variables with p-values <0.2 and kappa values ≥0.60 will be selected for stepwise logistic regression to identify the risk factors and to develop the clinical decision tool. We will enroll 5,000 patients (with 125 positive for

  4. Age differences in strategy selection and risk preference during risk-based decision making.

    PubMed

    Samson, Rachel D; Venkatesh, Anu; Lester, Adam W; Weinstein, A Tobias; Lipa, Peter; Barnes, Carol A

    2015-04-01

    Studies of the effects of aging on decision making suggest that choices can be altered in a variety of ways depending on the situation, the nature of the outcome and risk, or certainty levels. To better characterize how aging impacts decision making in rodents, young and aged Fischer 344 rats underwent a series of probabilistic discounting tasks in which reward magnitude and probabilities were manipulated. Young rats tended to choose 1 of 2 different strategies: (a) to press for the large/uncertain reward, regardless of the reward probability; or (b) to continually adapt their behavior according to the odds of winning. The first strategy was adopted by about half of the younger rats, the second by the remaining young animals and the entire group of aged rats. Additionally, we found that when the odds of winning were varied from uncertain to certain during a session, aged rats chose most often the lever associated with the small/certain reward. This is consistent with an interpretation of increased risk aversion. When this behavior was further characterized using a lose-shift analysis, it appears that older rats exhibited an increased sensitivity to negative feedback. In contrast, sensitivity to wins was unaltered in aged rats compared with young, suggesting that aging selectively impacts rat's behavior following losses. In line with some human aging studies, it appears that aged rats are either more risk averse or have a greater certainty bias, which may result from age differences in emotion regulation. PMID:25664565

  5. Improving Fall Risk Factor Identification and Documentation of Risk Reduction Strategies by Rehabilitation Therapists through Continuing Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karnes, Michele J.

    2011-01-01

    This static group comparison study determined that an educational intervention was effective in increasing fall risk factor assessment, documentation of fall risk factors, and strategies devised to reduce fall risk factors by rehabilitation therapists for their older adult outpatients in clinics. Results showed that experimental group identified…

  6. [Competitive karate and the risk of HIV infection--review, risk analysis and risk minimizing strategies].

    PubMed

    Müller-Rath, R; Mumme, T; Miltner, O; Skobel, E

    2004-03-01

    Bleeding facial injuries are not uncommon in competitive karate. Nevertheless, the risk of an infection with HIV is extremely low. Guidelines about the prevention of HIV infections are presented. Especially in contact sports and martial arts the athletes, judges and staff have to recognize and employ these recommendations. Bleeding wounds of the hands due to contact with the opponents teeth can be minimized by fist padding.

  7. Risk of Malignant Neoplasms of Kidney and Bladder in a Cohort Study of the Diabetic Population in Taiwan With Age, Sex, and Geographic Area Stratifications.

    PubMed

    Chen, Hua-Fen; Chen, Shwe-Winn; Chang, Ya-Hui; Li, Chung-Yi

    2015-09-01

    Diabetes has been reported to increase the risk of malignant neoplasms of kidney and bladder, but the studies' results are still inconclusive. Age, sex, and geographical area-specific incidence and relative risks of above neoplasms are also scarce in the literature. We prospectively investigated the age, sex, geographical area-specific incidence and relative risks of kidney and bladder neoplasms in diabetic population of Taiwan. Diabetic patients (n = 615,532) and age- and sex-matched controls (n = 614,871) were linked to inpatient claims (2000-2008) to identify the admissions for malignant neoplasm of kidney (International Classification of Diagnosis, 9th version, Clinical Modification: 189) and bladder (International Classification of Diagnosis, 9th version, Clinical Modification: 188). The person-year approach with Poisson assumption was used to evaluate the incidence density. We also estimated the age, sex, and geographical area-specific relative risks of above malignancy in relation to diabetes with Cox proportional hazard regression model. The overall incidence density of malignant neoplasm of kidney for diabetic men and women were 3.87 and 4.28 per 10,000 patient-years, respectively; the corresponding figures for malignant neoplasm of bladder were 5.73 and 3.25 per 10,000 patient-years. Compared with the controls, diabetic men were at significantly increased hazards of kidney (covariate adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-1.46) and bladder aHR: 1.13, 95% CI 1.04-1.23). Diabetic women, on the contrary, only experienced significantly elevated hazard of kidney neoplasm (aHR: 1.14, 95% CI 1.04-1.26). Diabetic men aged >65 years showed the most significantly increased hazard of developing neoplasm of kidney (aHR: 1.40) and bladder (aHR: 1.13). The most significantly increased hazard of kidney neoplasm was noted for women diabetic patients aged >65 years. There was also a significant interactive effect of geographic area

  8. A review of the peri-operative risk stratification assessment tools used for the prediction of cardiovascular complications in non-cardiac surgery.

    PubMed

    Magapu, Pradeep; Haskard, Dorian; Fisher, Michael

    2016-07-01

    The development of atherosclerosis is a complex process that involves several inflammatory mechanisms. The evolution of a fatty streak to a mature occlusive atheromatous plaque occurs over several decades. However, during acute plaque rupture, to a varying degree, these same inflammatory systems are involved.Evidence exists that suggests a relationship between the activated inflammatory pathways; in the setting of lower respiratory tract or urinary tract infections and cardiac events such as unstable angina or myocardial infarctions.Peripheral vascular disease patients demonstrate atheromatous disease throughout their arterial tree, with coronary artery involvement in a significant proportion of individuals. The stress that a surgical intervention creates may be the catalyst for an acute coronary syndrome through the activation of these inflammatory pathways. Individual responses to the surgical insult are unpredictable and the extent to which the inflammatory mechanisms are stimulated is variable. The measurements of inflammatory biomarkers, such as C-reactive protein, have been associated with adverse short- and long-term mortality in patients who experience an acute coronary syndrome.This review article looks at the previous assessment tools that have been developed over time to try and predict the peri-operative risk of patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, based on traditional patient parameters. We also explore the use of bio-markers in addition to these characteristics and how future work is being developed to look at the potential use of these to improve individual risk profiles. PMID:26567135

  9. Automated detection of dual p16/Ki67 nuclear immunoreactivity in liquid-based Pap tests for improved cervical cancer risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Gertych, Arkadiusz; Joseph, Anika O; Walts, Ann E; Bose, Shikha

    2012-05-01

    The Papanicolau (Pap) test is a routine cytological procedure for early detection of dysplastic lesions in cervical epithelium. A reliable screening method is crucial for triage of women at risk; however manual screening and interpretation are associated with relatively low sensitivity and substantial interobserver diagnostic variability. P16 and Ki67 biomarkers have been recently proposed as adjunctive tools in the diagnosis of high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) associated dysplasias to supplement the morphological characteristics of cells by additional colorimetric features. In this study, an automated technique for the evaluation of dual p16/Ki67 immunoreactivity in cervical cell nuclei is introduced. Smears stained with p16 and Ki67 antibodies were digitized, and analyzed by algorithms we developed. Gradient-based radial symmetry operator and adaptive processing of symmetry image were employed to obtain the nuclear mask. This step was followed by the extraction of features including pixel data and immunoreactivity signature from each nucleus. The features were analyzed by two support vector machine classifiers to assign a nucleus into one of four types of immunoreactivity: p16 positive (p16(+)/Ki67(-)), Ki67 positive (p16(-)/Ki67(+)), dual p16/Ki67 positive (p16(+)/Ki67(+)) and negative (p16(-)/Ki67(-)), respectively. Results obtained by our method correlated well with readings by two cytopathologists (n = 18,068 cells); p16(+)/Ki67(+) nuclei were classified with respective precisions of 77.1% and 82.6%. Specificity in identification of p16(-)/Ki67(-) nuclei was better than 99.5%, and the sensitivity in detection of all immunopositive nuclei was 86.3 and 89.4%, respectively. We found that the quantitative characterization of immunoreactivity provided by the additional highlighting of classified nuclei can positively impact the efficacy and screening outcome of the Pap test.

  10. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  11. Fire risk and adaptation strategies in Northern Eurasian forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shvidenko, Anatoly; Schepaschenko, Dmitry

    2013-04-01

    On-going climatic changes substantially accelerate current fire regimes in Northern Eurasian ecosystems, particularly in forests. During 1998-2012, wildfires enveloped on average ~10.5 M ha year-1 in Russia with a large annual variation (between 3 and 30 M ha) and average direct carbon emissions at ~150 Tg C year-1. Catastrophic fires, which envelope large areas, spread in usually incombustible wetlands, escape from control and provide extraordinary negative impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, economics, infrastructure, environment, and health of population, become a typical feature of the current fire regimes. There are new evidences of correlation between catastrophic fires and large-scale climatic anomalies at a continental scale. While current climatic predictions suggest the dramatic warming (at the average at 6-7 °C for the country and up to 10-12°C in some northern continental regions), any substantial increase of summer precipitation does not expected. Increase of dryness and instability of climate will impact fire risk and severity of consequences. Current models suggest a 2-3 fold increase of the number of fires by the end of this century in the boreal zone. They predict increases of the number of catastrophic fires; a significant increase in the intensity of fire and amount of consumed fuel; synergies between different types of disturbances (outbreaks of insects, unregulated anthropogenic impacts); acceleration of composition of the gas emissions due to enhanced soil burning. If boreal forests would become a typing element, the mass mortality of trees would increase fire risk and severity. Permafrost melting and subsequent change of hydrological regimes very likely will lead to the degradation and destruction of boreal forests, as well as to the widespread irreversible replacement of forests by other underproductive vegetation types. A significant feedback between warming and escalating fire regimes is very probable in Russia and particularly in the

  12. Social Stratification in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grodsky, Eric; Jackson, Erika

    2009-01-01

    Background/Context: Over the past half century, scholars in a variety of fields have contributed to our understanding of the relationship between higher education and social stratification. We review this literature, highlighting complementarities and inconsistencies. Purpose/Objective/Research Question/Focus of Study: We situate our review of the…

  13. Age Stratification and Value Orientations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Youmans, E. Grant

    Value orientations of members of younger and older age strata in 2 subcultural systems--one urban and one rural--are examined. The author looks at age stratification in a vertical sense (i.e., assessing differences existing between members of younger and older age strata), as well as in a horizontal sense (i.e., comparing the value orientations of…

  14. A Synovial Sarcoma Specific Preoperative Nomogram Supports a Survival Benefit to Ifosfamide-Based Chemotherapy and Improves Risk Stratification for Patients

    PubMed Central

    Canter, Robert J.; Qin, Li-Xuan; Maki, Robert G.; Brennan, Murray F.; Ladanyi, Marc; Singer, Samuel

    2009-01-01

    Purpose To identify prognostic factors related to outcome in 255 patients with synovial sarcoma (SS) and to construct a preoperative nomogram to predict the risk of disease-specific death. Design Between July 1982 and June 2006, 301 patients underwent treatment at our institution for primary SS of all anatomic sites and 255 patients with localized disease at presentation were resected with curative intent. Data were collected prospectively and analyzed retrospectively. Results Five-year, 10-year, and 15-year disease-specific survival was 72%, 60%, and 53%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed size and primary tumor site as the only independent adverse predictors of disease-specific death. A nomogram based on preoperative data for surgical patients not receiving anthracycline-ifosfamide (AI) chemotherapy (N = 196) estimates three- and five-year DSS with a concordance index of 77.3%. For the first 3 years following diagnosis, the observed DSS for patients treated with AI chemotherapy (N = 59) was greater than that predicted by the preoperative nomogram based on patients not receiving AI chemotherapy. SYT-SSX fusion transcript data were available for 132 patients. Multivariate analysis of this subset showed that SYT-SSX1 fusion type was predictive of early, but not late, distant recurrence. Conclusion Size and location govern prognosis in primary SS resected with curative intent. A nomogram based on preoperative variables provides individualized patient survival estimates and demonstrates an early survival benefit to chemotherapy that may dissipate over time. This nomogram may improve decision-making with regards to selecting patients most likely to benefit from neoadjuvant/adjuvant chemotherapy. PMID:19088035

  15. Generating tsunami risk knowledge at community level as a base for planning and implementation of risk reduction strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wegscheider, S.; Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Muhari, A.; Anwar, H. Z.

    2011-02-01

    More than 4 million Indonesians live in tsunami-prone areas along the southern and western coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali. Although a Tsunami Early Warning Center in Jakarta now exists, installed after the devastating 2004 tsunami, it is essential to develop tsunami risk knowledge within the exposed communities as a basis for tsunami disaster management. These communities need to implement risk reduction strategies to mitigate potential consequences. The major aims of this paper are to present a risk assessment methodology which (1) identifies areas of high tsunami risk in terms of potential loss of life, (2) bridges the gaps between research and practical application, and (3) can be implemented at community level. High risk areas have a great need for action to improve people's response capabilities towards a disaster, thus reducing the risk. The methodology developed here is based on a GIS approach and combines hazard probability, hazard intensity, population density and people's response capability to assess the risk. Within the framework of the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project, the methodology was applied to three pilot areas, one of which is southern Bali. Bali's tourism is concentrated for a great part in the communities of Kuta, Legian and Seminyak. Here alone, about 20 000 people live in high and very high tsunami risk areas. The development of risk reduction strategies is therefore of significant interest. A risk map produced for the study area in Bali can be used for local planning activities and the development of risk reduction strategies.

  16. Quantitative Stratification of Diffuse Parenchymal Lung Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Raghunath, Sushravya; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Maldonado, Fabien; Peikert, Tobias; Moua, Teng; Ryu, Jay H.; Bartholmai, Brian J.; Robb, Richard A.

    2014-01-01

    Diffuse parenchymal lung diseases (DPLDs) are characterized by widespread pathological changes within the pulmonary tissue that impair the elasticity and gas exchange properties of the lungs. Clinical-radiological diagnosis of these diseases remains challenging and their clinical course is characterized by variable disease progression. These challenges have hindered the introduction of robust objective biomarkers for patient-specific prediction based on specific phenotypes in clinical practice for patients with DPLD. Therefore, strategies facilitating individualized clinical management, staging and identification of specific phenotypes linked to clinical disease outcomes or therapeutic responses are urgently needed. A classification schema consistently reflecting the radiological, clinical (lung function and clinical outcomes) and pathological features of a disease represents a critical need in modern pulmonary medicine. Herein, we report a quantitative stratification paradigm to identify subsets of DPLD patients with characteristic radiologic patterns in an unsupervised manner and demonstrate significant correlation of these self-organized disease groups with clinically accepted surrogate endpoints. The proposed consistent and reproducible technique could potentially transform diagnostic staging, clinical management and prognostication of DPLD patients as well as facilitate patient selection for clinical trials beyond the ability of current radiological tools. In addition, the sequential quantitative stratification of the type and extent of parenchymal process may allow standardized and objective monitoring of disease, early assessment of treatment response and mortality prediction for DPLD patients. PMID:24676019

  17. A functional assay-based strategy for nanomaterial risk forecasting.

    PubMed

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Lowry, Gregory V; Unrine, Jason M; Wiesner, Mark R

    2015-12-01

    The study of nanomaterial impacts on environment, health and safety (nanoEHS) has been largely predicated on the assumption that exposure and hazard can be predicted from physical-chemical properties of nanomaterials. This approach is rooted in the view that nanoöbjects essentially resemble chemicals with additional particle-based attributes that must be included among their intrinsic physical-chemical descriptors. With the exception of the trivial case of nanomaterials made from toxic or highly reactive materials, this approach has yielded few actionable guidelines for predicting nanomaterial risk. This article addresses inherent problems in structuring a nanoEHS research strategy based on the goal of predicting outcomes directly from nanomaterial properties, and proposes a framework for organizing data and designing integrated experiments based on functional assays (FAs). FAs are intermediary, semi-empirical measures of processes or functions within a specified system that bridge the gap between nanomaterial properties and potential outcomes in complex systems. The three components of a functional assay are standardized protocols for parameter determination and reporting, a theoretical context for parameter application and reference systems. We propose the identification and adoption of reference systems where FAs may be applied to provide parameter estimates for environmental fate and effects models, as well as benchmarks for comparing the results of FAs and experiments conducted in more complex and varied systems. Surface affinity and dissolution rate are identified as two critical FAs for characterizing nanomaterial behavior in a variety of important systems. The use of these FAs to predict bioaccumulation and toxicity for initial and aged nanomaterials is illustrated for the case of silver nanoparticles and Caenorhabditis elegans.

  18. A functional assay-based strategy for nanomaterial risk forecasting.

    PubMed

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Lowry, Gregory V; Unrine, Jason M; Wiesner, Mark R

    2015-12-01

    The study of nanomaterial impacts on environment, health and safety (nanoEHS) has been largely predicated on the assumption that exposure and hazard can be predicted from physical-chemical properties of nanomaterials. This approach is rooted in the view that nanoöbjects essentially resemble chemicals with additional particle-based attributes that must be included among their intrinsic physical-chemical descriptors. With the exception of the trivial case of nanomaterials made from toxic or highly reactive materials, this approach has yielded few actionable guidelines for predicting nanomaterial risk. This article addresses inherent problems in structuring a nanoEHS research strategy based on the goal of predicting outcomes directly from nanomaterial properties, and proposes a framework for organizing data and designing integrated experiments based on functional assays (FAs). FAs are intermediary, semi-empirical measures of processes or functions within a specified system that bridge the gap between nanomaterial properties and potential outcomes in complex systems. The three components of a functional assay are standardized protocols for parameter determination and reporting, a theoretical context for parameter application and reference systems. We propose the identification and adoption of reference systems where FAs may be applied to provide parameter estimates for environmental fate and effects models, as well as benchmarks for comparing the results of FAs and experiments conducted in more complex and varied systems. Surface affinity and dissolution rate are identified as two critical FAs for characterizing nanomaterial behavior in a variety of important systems. The use of these FAs to predict bioaccumulation and toxicity for initial and aged nanomaterials is illustrated for the case of silver nanoparticles and Caenorhabditis elegans. PMID:26188653

  19. Investment strategy for flexible capacity considering demand-side disruption risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Cuicui; Ji, Jianhua; Li, Xinjun

    2016-04-01

    This article considers a firm selling two product families and confronting demand-side disruption risk. The firm has the option to invest in dedicated capacities and flexible capacity. To study the optimal investment strategy, we model the firm's decision as a two-stage stochastic programming problem, in which deviation risk is restricted within a certain level. Our analysis provides the necessary and sufficient conditions for the optimal strategy and the threshold policy for the flexible capacity investment. The results in the context of deviation risk constraint are compared with results derived outside of the context of deviation risk constraint. Furthermore, a numerical example is given to depict the optimal investment strategy.

  20. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies for risk communication and learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musacchio, Gemma; Amaral Ferreira, Mónica; Falsaperla, Susanna; Piangiamore, Giovanna Lucia; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Solarino, Stefano; Crescimbene, Massimo; Eva, Elena; Reitano, Danilo; Þorvaldsdottir, Solveig; Sousa Silva, Delta; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Sousa Oliveira, Carlos

    2016-04-01

    Damage of non-structural elements of buildings (i.e. partitions, ceilings, cladding, electrical and mechanical systems and furniture) is known to cause injuries and human losses. Also it has a significant impact on earthquake resilience and is yet being worldwide underestimated. The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. They were chosen because they are prone to damage level 2 and 3 (EMS-98, European Macroseismic Scale) that typically affects non-structural elements. We will develop and test a risk communication strategy taking into account the needs of households and schools, putting into practice a portfolio of best practice to reduce the most common non-structural vulnerabilities. We will target our actions to different societal groups, considering their cultural background and social vulnerabilities, and implement a participatory approach that will promote engagement and interaction between the scientific community, practitioners and citizens to foster knowledge on everyone's own neighborhoods, resilience and vulnerability. A Practical Guide for citizens will highlight that low-cost actions can be implemented to increase safety of households, meant as being the places where the most vulnerable societal groups, including children and elderly people, spend much of their time. Since our actions towards communication will include education, we will define tools that allow a clear and direct understanding of elements exposed to risk. Schools will be one of our target societal groups and their central role played at the community level will ensure spreading and strengthening of the communication process. Schools are often located in old or re-adapted buildings, formerly used for

  1. Leadership Strategies Used to Equitably Educate At-Risk Learners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lacey, Jacqueline Smith

    2012-01-01

    Trying to adequately and equally educate the at-risk populace has been and is still a challenge for school administrators and teachers. Students considered at-risk of academic failure is of overwhelming concern to educators who are accountable for ensuring the academic success of the at-risk populace. Considerable interests of educators connect…

  2. Continuing Developments in PV Risk Management: Strategies, Solutions, and Implications

    SciTech Connect

    Lowder, T.; Mendelsohn, M.; Speer, B.; Hill, R.

    2013-02-01

    As the PV industry matures, successful risk management practices will become more imperative to ensure investor confidence, control costs, and facilitate further growth. This report discusses several key aspects of risk management during the commercial- and utility-scale project life cycle, from identification of risks, to the process of mitigating and allocating those risks among project parties, to transferring those risks through insurance. The report also explores novel techniques in PV risk management, options to offload risks onto the capital markets, and innovative insurance policies (namely warranty policies) that address risks unique to the PV sector. One of the major justifications for robust risk management in the PV industry is the cost-reduction opportunities it affords. If the PV industry can demonstrate the capability to successfully manage its risks, thereby inspiring confidence in financiers, it may be able to obtain a lower cost of capital in future transactions. A lower cost of capital translates to a lower cost of energy, which will in turn enhance PV?s competitiveness at a time when it will have to rely less on subsidies to support its market penetration.

  3. Social interaction distance and stratification.

    PubMed

    Bottero, Wendy; Prandy, Kenneth

    2003-06-01

    There have been calls from several sources recently for a renewal of class analysis that would encompass social and cultural, as well as economic elements. This paper explores a tradition in stratification that is founded on this idea: relational or social distance approaches to mapping hierarchy and inequality which theorize stratification as a social space. The idea of 'social space' is not treated as a metaphor of hierarchy nor is the nature of the structure determined a priori. Rather, the space is identified by mapping social interactions. Exploring the nature of social space involves mapping the network of social interaction--patterns of friendship, partnership and cultural similarity--which gives rise to relations of social closeness and distance. Differential association has long been seen as the basis of hierarchy, but the usual approach is first to define a structure composed of a set of groups and then to investigate social interaction between them. Social distance approaches reverse this, using patterns of interaction to determine the nature of the structure. Differential association can be seen as a way of defining proximity within a social space, from the distances between social groups, or between social groups and social objects (such as lifestyle items). The paper demonstrates how the very different starting point of social distance approaches also leads to strikingly different theoretical conclusions about the nature of stratification and inequality.

  4. Cancer Stratification by Molecular Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Weber, Justus; Haberkorn, Uwe; Mier, Walter

    2015-01-01

    The lack of specificity of traditional cytotoxic drugs has triggered the development of anticancer agents that selectively address specific molecular targets. An intrinsic property of these specialized drugs is their limited applicability for specific patient subgroups. Consequently, the generation of information about tumor characteristics is the key to exploit the potential of these drugs. Currently, cancer stratification relies on three approaches: Gene expression analysis and cancer proteomics, immunohistochemistry and molecular imaging. In order to enable the precise localization of functionally expressed targets, molecular imaging combines highly selective biomarkers and intense signal sources. Thus, cancer stratification and localization are performed simultaneously. Many cancer types are characterized by altered receptor expression, such as somatostatin receptors, folate receptors or Her2 (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2). Similar correlations are also known for a multitude of transporters, such as glucose transporters, amino acid transporters or hNIS (human sodium iodide symporter), as well as cell specific proteins, such as the prostate specific membrane antigen, integrins, and CD20. This review provides a comprehensive description of the methods, targets and agents used in molecular imaging, to outline their application for cancer stratification. Emphasis is placed on radiotracers which are used to identify altered expression patterns of cancer associated markers. PMID:25749472

  5. Lipoprotein-Associated Phospholipase A2 and High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein Improve the Stratification of Ischemic Stroke Risk in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

    PubMed Central

    Nambi, Vijay; Hoogeveen, Ron C.; Chambless, Lloyd; Hu, Yijuan; Bang, Heejung; Coresh, Josef; Ni, Hanyu; Boerwinkle, Eric; Mosley, Thomas; Sharrett, Richey; Folsom, Aaron R.; Ballantyne, Christie M.

    2009-01-01

    Background and Purpose Inflammation plays a critical role in the development of vascular disease, and increased levels of the inflammatory biomarkers, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) have been shown to be associated with an increased risk for ischemic stroke. Methods In a prospective case– cohort (n=949) study in 12 762 apparently healthy, middle-aged men and women in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, we first examined whether Lp-PLA2 and hs-CRP levels improved the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) for 5-year ischemic stroke risk. We then examined how Lp-PLA2 and hs-CRP levels altered classification of individuals into low-, intermediate-, or high-risk categories compared with traditional risk factors. Results In a model using traditional risk factors alone, the AUC adjusted for optimism was 0.732, whereas adding hs-CRP improved the AUC to 0.743, and adding Lp-PLA2 significantly improved the AUC to 0.752. Addition of hs-CRP and Lp-PLA2 together in the model improved the AUC to 0.761, and the addition of the interaction between Lp-PLA2 and hs-CRP further significantly improved the AUC to 0.774. With the use of traditional risk factors to assess 5-year risk for ischemic stroke, 86% of participants were categorized as low risk (<2%); 11%, intermediate risk (2% to 5%); and 3%, high risk (>5%). The addition of hs-CRP, Lp-PLA2, and their interaction to the model reclassified 4%, 39%, and 34% of the low-, intermediate- and high-risk categories, respectively. Conclusion Lp-PLA2 and hs-CRP may be useful in individuals classified as intermediate risk for ischemic stroke by traditional risk factors. PMID:19095974

  6. Developmental Risk and Young Children’s Regulatory Strategies: Predicting Behavior Problems at Age Five

    PubMed Central

    Gerstein, Emily D.; Arbona, Anita Pedersen y; Crnic, Keith A.; Ryu, Ehri; Baker, Bruce L.; Blacher, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Children with early developmental delays are at heightened risk for behavior problems and comorbid psychopathology. This study examined the trajectories of regulatory capabilities and their potentially mediating role in the development of behavior problems for children with and without early developmental delays. A sample of 231 children comprised of 137 typically developing children and 94 children with developmental delays were examined during mildly frustrating laboratory tasks across the preschool period (ages 3–5). Results indicated that children with delays had greater use of maladaptive strategies (distraction, distress venting) and lower use of adaptive strategies (constructive coping) than typically developing children. For both groups, strategies had similar rates of growth across time; maladaptive strategies decreased and adaptive strategies increased. The intercept of strategy use, but not the slope, was found to mediate the relation between developmental risk and externalizing behaviors. Findings support that dysregulation, rather than the developmental risk, may be responsible for the high levels of comorbid psychopathology. PMID:21107675

  7. Accurate cloud-based smart IMT measurement, its validation and stroke risk stratification in carotid ultrasound: A web-based point-of-care tool for multicenter clinical trial.

    PubMed

    Saba, Luca; Banchhor, Sumit K; Suri, Harman S; Londhe, Narendra D; Araki, Tadashi; Ikeda, Nobutaka; Viskovic, Klaudija; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Gupta, Ajay; Nicolaides, Andrew; Suri, Jasjit S

    2016-08-01

    This study presents AtheroCloud™ - a novel cloud-based smart carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) measurement tool using B-mode ultrasound for stroke/cardiovascular risk assessment and its stratification. This is an anytime-anywhere clinical tool for routine screening and multi-center clinical trials. In this pilot study, the physician can upload ultrasound scans in one of the following formats (DICOM, JPEG, BMP, PNG, GIF or TIFF) directly into the proprietary cloud of AtheroPoint from the local server of the physician's office. They can then run the intelligent and automated AtheroCloud™ cIMT measurements in point-of-care settings in less than five seconds per image, while saving the vascular reports in the cloud. We statistically benchmark AtheroCloud™ cIMT readings against sonographer (a registered vascular technologist) readings and manual measurements derived from the tracings of the radiologist. One hundred patients (75 M/25 F, mean age: 68±11 years), IRB approved, Toho University, Japan, consisted of Left/Right common carotid artery (CCA) artery (200 ultrasound scans), (Toshiba, Tokyo, Japan) were collected using a 7.5MHz transducer. The measured cIMTs for L/R carotid were as follows (in mm): (i) AtheroCloud™ (0.87±0.20, 0.77±0.20); (ii) sonographer (0.97±0.26, 0.89±0.29) and (iii) manual (0.90±0.20, 0.79±0.20), respectively. The coefficient of correlation (CC) between sonographer and manual for L/R cIMT was 0.74 (P<0.0001) and 0.65 (P<0.0001), while, between AtheroCloud™ and manual was 0.96 (P<0.0001) and 0.97 (P<0.0001), respectively. We observed that 91.15% of the population in AtheroCloud™ had a mean cIMT error less than 0.11mm compared to sonographer's 68.31%. The area under curve for receiving operating characteristics was 0.99 for AtheroCloud™ against 0.81 for sonographer. Our Framingham Risk Score stratified the population into three bins as follows: 39% in low-risk, 70.66% in medium-risk and 10.66% in high-risk bins

  8. Accurate cloud-based smart IMT measurement, its validation and stroke risk stratification in carotid ultrasound: A web-based point-of-care tool for multicenter clinical trial.

    PubMed

    Saba, Luca; Banchhor, Sumit K; Suri, Harman S; Londhe, Narendra D; Araki, Tadashi; Ikeda, Nobutaka; Viskovic, Klaudija; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Gupta, Ajay; Nicolaides, Andrew; Suri, Jasjit S

    2016-08-01

    This study presents AtheroCloud™ - a novel cloud-based smart carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) measurement tool using B-mode ultrasound for stroke/cardiovascular risk assessment and its stratification. This is an anytime-anywhere clinical tool for routine screening and multi-center clinical trials. In this pilot study, the physician can upload ultrasound scans in one of the following formats (DICOM, JPEG, BMP, PNG, GIF or TIFF) directly into the proprietary cloud of AtheroPoint from the local server of the physician's office. They can then run the intelligent and automated AtheroCloud™ cIMT measurements in point-of-care settings in less than five seconds per image, while saving the vascular reports in the cloud. We statistically benchmark AtheroCloud™ cIMT readings against sonographer (a registered vascular technologist) readings and manual measurements derived from the tracings of the radiologist. One hundred patients (75 M/25 F, mean age: 68±11 years), IRB approved, Toho University, Japan, consisted of Left/Right common carotid artery (CCA) artery (200 ultrasound scans), (Toshiba, Tokyo, Japan) were collected using a 7.5MHz transducer. The measured cIMTs for L/R carotid were as follows (in mm): (i) AtheroCloud™ (0.87±0.20, 0.77±0.20); (ii) sonographer (0.97±0.26, 0.89±0.29) and (iii) manual (0.90±0.20, 0.79±0.20), respectively. The coefficient of correlation (CC) between sonographer and manual for L/R cIMT was 0.74 (P<0.0001) and 0.65 (P<0.0001), while, between AtheroCloud™ and manual was 0.96 (P<0.0001) and 0.97 (P<0.0001), respectively. We observed that 91.15% of the population in AtheroCloud™ had a mean cIMT error less than 0.11mm compared to sonographer's 68.31%. The area under curve for receiving operating characteristics was 0.99 for AtheroCloud™ against 0.81 for sonographer. Our Framingham Risk Score stratified the population into three bins as follows: 39% in low-risk, 70.66% in medium-risk and 10.66% in high-risk bins

  9. Risk Assessment Strategies and Techniques for Combined Exposures

    EPA Science Inventory

    Author: Cynthia V. Rider, Ph.D., and Jane Ellen Simmons, Ph.D.Abstract: Consideration of cumulative risk is necessary to evaluate properly the safety of, and the risks associated with, combined exposures. These combined exposures ("mixtures") commonly occur from exposure to: envi...

  10. Managing Liability. Employment Discrimination: A Risk Management Strategy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McMullan, Sandra H.

    This booklet discusses the risks that educational institutions face in regard to employment discrimination litigation and outlines a program to effectively manage such risks. Institutions need to address three main types of employment discrimination issues: sexual harassment, disability-based discrimination, and age discrimination. To deal with…

  11. The strategy for assessing risks associated with remediation of the former production area at Fernald

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, M.; Avci, H.; Picel, K.; Janke, R.J.

    1993-10-01

    The strategy for assessing the risks associated with the remediation of the former Production Area at the Fernald Environmental Management Project is discussed. The general approach to risk assessment is strongly influenced by a number of factors related to the nature of the site and to management proposals that have been made concerning the site. How these factors affect the approach to assessing baseline risks, to assessing risks associated with remedial activity, and to establishing cleanup criteria are examined.

  12. Risk definition and management strategies in retinoblastoma: current perspectives

    PubMed Central

    Ghassemi, Fariba; Khodabande, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    This manuscript focuses on high-risk factors of metastatic disease in retinoblastoma and evaluation of the current treatments of retinoblastoma. Presence of histopathologic high-risk factors is associated with a higher risk of local recurrence and systemic metastasis. Currently, globe-sparing therapies, including systemic chemotherapy, intra-arterial chemoreduction, intravitreal chemotherapy, focal consolidation, and combination therapies, are being used and investigated actively. Major advances are being made in the diagnosis and management of retinoblastoma that will lead to improved morbidity and mortality rates in patients with retinoblastoma. By saving the globes, fronting with some high-risk factors for metastasis would be inevitable. International multi-institutional prospective studies could resolve current uncertainties regarding the main tumor treatment regimens for each patient and indications for chemoprophylaxis for high-risk-factor-bearing retinoblastoma cases. PMID:26089630

  13. [Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    PubMed

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

    2011-10-01

    The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

  14. Prehypertension--prevalence, health risks, and management strategies.

    PubMed

    Egan, Brent M; Stevens-Fabry, Sean

    2015-05-01

    Prehypertension (blood pressure 120-139/80-89 mmHg) affects ~25-50% of adults worldwide, and increases the risk of incident hypertension. The relative risk of incident hypertension declines by ~20% with intensive lifestyle intervention, and by 34-66% with single antihypertensive medications. To prevent one case of incident hypertension in adults with prehypertension and a 50% 5-year risk of hypertension, 10 individuals would need to receive intensive lifestyle intervention, and four to six patients would need to be treated with antihypertensive medication. The relative risk of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) is greater with 'stage 2' (130-139/85-89 mmHg) than 'stage 1' (120-129/80-84 mmHg) prehypertension; only stage 2 prehypertension increases cardiovascular mortality. Among individuals with prehypertension, the 10-year absolute CVD risk for middle-aged adults without diabetes mellitus or CVD is ~10%, and ~40% for middle-aged and older individuals with either or both comorbidities. Antihypertensive medications reduce the relative risk of CVD and death by ~15% in secondary-prevention studies of prehypertension. Data on primary prevention of CVD with pharmacotherapy in prehypertension are lacking. Risk-stratified, patient-centred, comparative-effectiveness research is needed in prehypertension to inform an acceptable, safe, and effective balance of lifestyle and medication interventions to prevent incident hypertension and CVD.

  15. Your hospital's strategy for managing total cost of risk.

    PubMed

    Daniels, Gregory L; Tisdell, Stephen

    2010-07-01

    Hospital and health system leadership should examine levels of risk retained within property and casualty insurance programs to ensure the right fit for the organization, rather than simply relying on past experience or basing decisions on a desire to reduce excess premiums. Leadership should determine the maximum cost of risk that can be absorbed by the organization without violating key financial performance targets. Also important is using predictive models to identify expected losses or claims costs, which factor into cost-benefit analysis of retaining risk at various levels.

  16. [Therapeutic Strategies. Cardiovascular risk and dyslipidemia in elderly and women].

    PubMed

    Morales, Clotilde; Royuela, Meritxell

    2013-01-01

    The management of cardiovascular risk and dyslipidemia are justified in guidelines. In the elderly, when they are in primary prevention, recommendations are controversial, even if there is evidence in reducing morbidity. In secondary prevention, between 65 and 85 years, there is enough evidence to recommend statins. The decision to start or to continue further treatment must be complemented by comprehensive assessment of the risk-benefit factor. In elderly patients we have to support in decision-making, we take clinical judgment and not just the age criteria. In women the risk is underestimated and may be untreated. The recomendations are the same as in men. During pregnancy there are particular recommendations.

  17. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  18. Chemical stratification of the mantle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, D. L.

    1979-01-01

    A possible scenario for the chemical stratification of the earth's mantle is presented. Differentiation of the mantle by either the production of basaltic magmas or partial melting by the upper mantle is proposed to lead to a thick basalt layer, the lower part of which is converted to eclogite as the earth cools. Density estimates indicate that the eclogite formed would not be able to sink to below 670 km. The eclogite layer is thus demonstrated to be trapped as a result of whole-mantle convection and possible irreversible differentiation of the mantle into eclogite and overlying residual peridotite layers.

  19. Integrating Health Into Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies: Key Considerations for Success

    PubMed Central

    Dar, Osman; Rokadiya, Sakib; Huda, Qudsia; Abrahams, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    The human and financial costs of disasters are vast. In 2011, disasters were estimated to have cost $378 billion worldwide; disasters have affected 64% of the world’s population since 1992. Consequently, disaster risk reduction strategies have become increasingly prominent on national and international policy agendas. However, the function of health in disaster risk reduction strategies often has been restricted to emergency response. To mitigate the effect of disasters on social and health development goals (such as risk reduction Millennium Development Goals) and increase resilience among at-risk populations, disaster strategies should assign the health sector a more all-encompassing, proactive role. We discuss proposed methods and concepts for mainstreaming health in disaster risk reduction and consider barriers faced by the health sector in this field. PMID:25122022

  20. Integrating health into disaster risk reduction strategies: key considerations for success.

    PubMed

    Dar, Osman; Buckley, Emmeline J; Rokadiya, Sakib; Huda, Qudsia; Abrahams, Jonathan

    2014-10-01

    The human and financial costs of disasters are vast. In 2011, disasters were estimated to have cost $378 billion worldwide; disasters have affected 64% of the world's population since 1992. Consequently, disaster risk reduction strategies have become increasingly prominent on national and international policy agendas. However, the function of health in disaster risk reduction strategies often has been restricted to emergency response. To mitigate the effect of disasters on social and health development goals (such as risk reduction Millennium Development Goals) and increase resilience among at-risk populations, disaster strategies should assign the health sector a more all-encompassing, proactive role. We discuss proposed methods and concepts for mainstreaming health in disaster risk reduction and consider barriers faced by the health sector in this field.

  1. Integrating health into disaster risk reduction strategies: key considerations for success.

    PubMed

    Dar, Osman; Buckley, Emmeline J; Rokadiya, Sakib; Huda, Qudsia; Abrahams, Jonathan

    2014-10-01

    The human and financial costs of disasters are vast. In 2011, disasters were estimated to have cost $378 billion worldwide; disasters have affected 64% of the world's population since 1992. Consequently, disaster risk reduction strategies have become increasingly prominent on national and international policy agendas. However, the function of health in disaster risk reduction strategies often has been restricted to emergency response. To mitigate the effect of disasters on social and health development goals (such as risk reduction Millennium Development Goals) and increase resilience among at-risk populations, disaster strategies should assign the health sector a more all-encompassing, proactive role. We discuss proposed methods and concepts for mainstreaming health in disaster risk reduction and consider barriers faced by the health sector in this field. PMID:25122022

  2. Effective Poster Teaching Strategy Towards Risk in Studying Fraud

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aziz, Rozainun Haji Abdul; Jusoff, Kamaruzaman

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present an alternative method and strategy in teaching and learning for the higher institution of learning. Poster presentation is an approach to introduce and deliver a lecture to create a different mood enticed by the visuals given. This poster presents a new approach of creativity as a method of teaching and learning…

  3. [Therapeutic Strategies. Cardiovascular risk and dyslipidemia in elderly and women].

    PubMed

    Morales, Clotilde; Royuela, Meritxell

    2013-01-01

    The management of cardiovascular risk and dyslipidemia are justified in guidelines. In the elderly, when they are in primary prevention, recommendations are controversial, even if there is evidence in reducing morbidity. In secondary prevention, between 65 and 85 years, there is enough evidence to recommend statins. The decision to start or to continue further treatment must be complemented by comprehensive assessment of the risk-benefit factor. In elderly patients we have to support in decision-making, we take clinical judgment and not just the age criteria. In women the risk is underestimated and may be untreated. The recomendations are the same as in men. During pregnancy there are particular recommendations. PMID:23786854

  4. Corrective Strategies in Reading for At-Risk Community College Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yevoli, Carole

    Focusing on corrective strategies for improving reading skills of at-risk community college students, this document reviews the history of such strategies, highlights current efforts, and assesses future needs. The first section traces the history of remedial reading programs at community colleges, beginning with small individualized sections…

  5. Effective Instructional Strategies for Kindergarten and First-Grade Students at Risk in Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clarke, Ben; Doabler, Christian T.; Nelson, Nancy J.; Shanley, Caroline

    2015-01-01

    This article provides an overview of effective instructional strategies and interventions for kindergarten and first-grade students at risk in mathematics. The article reviews instructional strategies and interventions within a multitier instructional model in order to provide a framework for teachers and schools looking to increase the…

  6. One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishiyama, N.

    2001-12-01

    Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

  7. Management strategies to reduce risk of postoperative infections

    PubMed Central

    Galor, Anat; Goldhardt, Raquel; Wellik, Sarah R.; Gregori, Ninel Z.; Flynn, Harry W.

    2013-01-01

    Postoperative infections, although rare, are still of great concern to the ophthalmologist. The incidence of post-cataract endophthalmitis is low, with a range of .28 per 1,000 to 2.99 per 1000. In addition to intraoperative considerations such as poor wound construction, vitreous loss, topical anesthesia, and prolonged surgical time, other risk factors include preoperative factors such as a diseased ocular surface and systemic immunosuppression. Potential methods of reducing risk of endophthalmitis after anterior segment surgery are discussed and available literature is summarized. PMID:24319649

  8. Increasing Achievement of At-Risk Students through the Use of Metacognitive Strategies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lidgus, Cathy; Vassos, Sophia

    A metacognition instructional strategy was employed to increase class participation and motivation in 21 seventh grade "at-risk" students at 2 schools in the context of the national problem of meeting the needs of "at-risk" students. A survey of the students' content area teachers and of the students themselves found evidence of the students'…

  9. Worksite Follow-Up and Engagement Strategies for Initiating Health Risk Behavior Changes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gregg, Walter; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Employees of four manufacturing plants who were at risk because of high blood pressure, obesity, or smoking were periodically contacted by wellness counselors. Over a three-year period, seven strategies for behavior change were used. High blood pressure clients were most likely to begin risk reduction actions. Frequency of followup showed positive…

  10. New Strategies for Managing Risks: A Balancing Act for Boards

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pelletier, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    The stately collegiate gothic buildings that define the iconic West Campus at Duke University evoke a strong sense of stability and the status quo. Like all institutions of higher learning, Duke faces many potential challenges to campus equilibrium--some of which could prove devastating to the university. Risk is inherent in academe, yet colleges…

  11. Risk Factors and Prevention Strategies for Suicide among the Elderly

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Franks, Rebecca; Burnett, Donna O.; Evans, Retta R.

    2012-01-01

    Suicide is a preventable public health concern affecting the nation as the 10th leading cause of death. The prevalence of suicide among the elderly is higher than any other group. Risk factors attributed to this phenomenon are depression, social isolation, substance abuse, poor physical health or function, financial stress, and access to lethal…

  12. Tutoring: A Support Strategy for At-Risk Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rheinheimer, David C.; Grace-Odeleye, Beverlyn; Francois, Germain E.; Kusorgbor, Cynthia

    2010-01-01

    A longitudinal research study was conducted at a public university in Pennsylvania on a sample of 129 at-risk students from a state-funded program (Act 101) designed to provide support services for economically and educationally disadvantaged students. This research employed a non-experimental, ex post facto methodology to assess the impact of…

  13. Street Crossings: Analyzing Risks, Developing Strategies, and Making Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sauerburger, Dona

    2005-01-01

    This article proposes an approach to teaching street crossing to students who are visually impaired that considers the risks, ambiguity, and complexity of today's intersections. Thirty or 40 years ago, street crossing was a straightforward task for travelers with visual impairments (that is, those who are blind or have low vision). The…

  14. Environmentally Mediated Risks for Psychopathology: Research Strategies and Findings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rutter, Michael

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To consider the research design requirements needed to provide a rigorous test of environmental mediation hypotheses and to summarize the main findings from research using such designs. Method: Selective review of empirical evidence dealing with psychopathology. Results: There is robust evidence of environmentally mediated risks for…

  15. Alternative Testing Strategies for Nanomaterials: State of the Science and Considerations for Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Shatkin, J A; Ong, K J

    2016-08-01

    The rapid growth of the nanotechnology industry has warranted equal progress in the nanotoxicology and risk assessment fields. In vivo models have traditionally been used to determine human and environmental risk for chemicals; however, the use of these tests has limitations, and there are global appeals to develop reliable alternatives to animal testing. Many have investigated the use of alternative (nonanimal) testing methods and strategies have quickly developed and resulted in the generation of large toxicological data sets for numerous nanomaterials (NMs). Due to the novel physicochemical properties of NMs that are related to surface characteristics, the approach toward toxicity test development has distinct considerations from traditional chemicals, bringing new requirements for adapting these approaches for NMs. The methodical development of strategies that combine multiple alternative tests can be useful for predictive NM risk assessment and help screening-level decision making. This article provides an overview of the main developments in alternative methods and strategies for reducing uncertainty in NM risk assessment, including advantages and disadvantages of in vitro, ex vivo, and in silico methods, and examples of existing comprehensive strategies. In addition, knowledge gaps are identified toward improvements for experimental and strategy design, specifically highlighting the need to represent realistic exposure scenarios and to consider NM-specific concerns such as characterization, assay interferences, and standardization. Overall, this article aims to improve the reliability and utility of alternative testing methods and strategies for risk assessment of manufactured NMs.

  16. Alternative Testing Strategies for Nanomaterials: State of the Science and Considerations for Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Shatkin, J A; Ong, K J

    2016-08-01

    The rapid growth of the nanotechnology industry has warranted equal progress in the nanotoxicology and risk assessment fields. In vivo models have traditionally been used to determine human and environmental risk for chemicals; however, the use of these tests has limitations, and there are global appeals to develop reliable alternatives to animal testing. Many have investigated the use of alternative (nonanimal) testing methods and strategies have quickly developed and resulted in the generation of large toxicological data sets for numerous nanomaterials (NMs). Due to the novel physicochemical properties of NMs that are related to surface characteristics, the approach toward toxicity test development has distinct considerations from traditional chemicals, bringing new requirements for adapting these approaches for NMs. The methodical development of strategies that combine multiple alternative tests can be useful for predictive NM risk assessment and help screening-level decision making. This article provides an overview of the main developments in alternative methods and strategies for reducing uncertainty in NM risk assessment, including advantages and disadvantages of in vitro, ex vivo, and in silico methods, and examples of existing comprehensive strategies. In addition, knowledge gaps are identified toward improvements for experimental and strategy design, specifically highlighting the need to represent realistic exposure scenarios and to consider NM-specific concerns such as characterization, assay interferences, and standardization. Overall, this article aims to improve the reliability and utility of alternative testing methods and strategies for risk assessment of manufactured NMs. PMID:27273523

  17. Child Pedestrian Injury: A Review of Behavioral Risks and Preventive Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Schwebel, David C.; Davis, Aaron L.; O’Neal, Elizabeth E.

    2011-01-01

    Pedestrian injury is among the leading causes of pediatric death in the United States and much of the world. This paper is divided into two sections. First, we review the literature on behavioral risk factors for child injury. Cognitive and perceptual development risks are discussed. The roles of distraction, temperament and personality, and social influences from parents and peers are presented. We conclude the first section with brief reviews of environmental risks, pedestrian safety among special populations, and the role of sleep and fatigue on pediatric pedestrian safety. The second section of the review considers child pedestrian injury prevention strategies. Categorized by mode of presentation, we discuss parent instruction strategies, school-based instruction strategies (including crossing guards), and streetside training techniques. Technology-based training strategies using video, internet, and virtual reality are reviewed. We conclude the section on prevention with discussion of community-based interventions. PMID:23066380

  18. Identifying metabolic risks with antipsychotics and monitoring and management strategies.

    PubMed

    Newcomer, John W; Sernyak, Michael J

    2007-07-01

    Mental health providers have an especially important responsibility to monitor the physical changes that patients have in response to medication. The current public health focus is on adiposity as a major risk factor for diabetes, coronary heart disease, insulin resistance syndrome, metabolic syndrome, and other diseases. Adiposity has an adverse effect on insulin action, which can lead to a cycle in which insulin loses its ability to stop the breakdown of fat. Because type 2 diabetes takes approximately 2 decades to develop, patients with increased BMI can be at risk for adverse effects to their physical health for many years. Because of the possibility that some antipsychotic treatments can lead to weight gain and metabolic changes and possibly to severe physical illness, regular physical checks should be made. PMID:17685728

  19. Parent birds assess nest predation risk and adjust their reproductive strategies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fontaine, J.J.; Martin, T.E.

    2006-01-01

    Avian life history theory has long assumed that nest predation plays a minor role in shaping reproductive strategies. Yet, this assumption remains conspicuously untested by broad experiments that alter environmental risk of nest predation, despite the fact that nest predation is a major source of reproductive failure. Here, we examined whether parents can assess experimentally reduced nest predation risk and alter their reproductive strategies. We experimentally reduced nest predation risk and show that in safer environments parents increased investment in young through increased egg size, clutch mass, and the rate they fed nestlings. Parents also increased investment in female condition by increasing the rates that males fed incubating females at the nest, and decreasing the time that females spent incubating. These results demonstrate that birds can assess nest predation risk at large and that nest predation plays a key role in the expression of avian reproductive strategies. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  20. Evaluation of Risk Management Strategies for a Low-Cost, High-Risk Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shishko, Robert; Jorgensen, Edward J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper summarizes work in progress to define and implement a risk management process tailored to a low-cost, high-risk, NASA mission -the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX, commonly called the Mars microrover).

  1. Blood doping: risks to athletes' health and strategies for detection.

    PubMed

    Oliveira, Carolina Dizioli Rodrigues de; Bairros, André Valle de; Yonamine, Mauricio

    2014-07-01

    Blood doping has been defined as the misuse of substances or certain techniques to optimize oxygen delivery to muscles with the aim to increase performance in sports activities. It includes blood transfusion, administration of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents or blood substitutes, and gene manipulations. The main reasons for the widespread use of blood doping include: its availability for athletes (erythropoiesis-stimulating agents and blood transfusions), its efficiency in improving performance, and its difficult detection. This article reviews and discusses the blood doping substances and methods used for in sports, the adverse effects related to this practice, and current strategies for its detection.

  2. Stable density stratification solar pond

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lansing, F. L. (Inventor)

    1985-01-01

    A stable density-stratification solar pond for use in the collection and storage of solar thermal energy including a container having a first section characterized by an internal wall of a substantially cylindrical configuration and a second section having an internal wall of a substantially truncated conical configuration surmounting the first section in coaxial alignment therewith, the second section of said container being characterized by a base of a diameter substantially equal to the diameter of the first section and a truncated apex defining a solar energy acceptance opening is discussed. A body of immiscible liquids is disposed within the container and comprises a lower portion substantially filling the first section of the container and an upper portion substantially filling the second section of the container, said lower portion being an aqueous based liquid of a darker color than the upper portion and of a greater density. A protective cover plate is removably provided for covering the acceptance opening.

  3. Low-cost risk reduction strategy for small workplaces: how can we spread good practices?

    PubMed

    Kogi, K

    2006-01-01

    Recent advances in health risk reduction approaches are examined based on inter-country networking experiences. A noteworthy progress is the wider application of low-cost improvements to risk reduction particularly in small enterprises and agriculture in both industrially developing and developed countries. This is helped by the readiness of managers and workers to implement these improvements despite many constraints. Typical improvements include mobile racks, simple workstation changes, screening hazards, better welfare facilities and teamwork arrangements. In view of the complex circumstances of work-related health risks, it is important to know whether a low-cost strategy can advance risk reduction practices effectively and what support measures are necessary. It is confirmed that the strategy can overcome related constraints through its advantages. Main advantages lie in (a) the facilitation of improved practices in multiple technical areas, (b) the strengthening of realistic stepwise risk reduction, and (c) the enhanced multiplier effects through training of local trainers. Action-oriented risk assessment tools, such as action checklists and low-cost improvement guides, can encourage risk-reducing measures adjusted to each local situation. It is suggested to spread the low-cost risk reduction strategy for improving small workplaces in diversified settings with the support of these locally tailored tools.

  4. Determination of a risk management primer at petroleum-contaminated sites: developing new human health risk assessment strategy.

    PubMed

    Park, In-Sun; Park, Jae-Woo

    2011-01-30

    Total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) is an important environmental contaminant that is toxic to human and environmental receptors. However, human health risk assessment for petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL)-contaminated sites is especially challenging because TPH is not a single compound, but rather a mixture of numerous substances. To address this concern, this study recommends a new human health risk assessment strategy for POL-contaminated sites. The strategy is based on a newly modified TPH fractionation method and includes an improved analytical protocol. The proposed TPH fractionation method is composed of ten fractions (e.g., aliphatic and aromatic EC8-10, EC10-12, EC12-16, EC16-22 and EC22-40). Physicochemical properties and toxicity values of each fraction were newly defined in this study. The stepwise ultrasonication-based analytical process was established to measure TPH fractions. Analytical results were compared with those from the TPH Criteria Working Group (TPHCWG) Direct Method. Better analytical efficiencies in TPH, aliphatic, and aromatic fractions were achieved when contaminated soil samples were analyzed with the new analytical protocol. Finally, a human health risk assessment was performed based on the developed tiered risk assessment framework. Results showed that a detailed quantitative risk assessment should be conducted to determine scientifically and economically appropriate cleanup target levels, although the phase II process is useful for determining the potency of human health risks posed by POL-contamination.

  5. The Precautionary Principle: implications for risk management strategies.

    PubMed

    Saltelli, Andrea; Funtowicz, Silvio

    2004-01-01

    The European Commission has published a Communication on the Precautionary Principle and a White Book on Governance. These provide us (as research civil servants of the Commission) an institutional framework for handling scientific information that is often incomplete, uncertain, and contested. But, although the Precautionary Principle is intuitively straightforward to understand, there is no agreed way of applying it to real decision-making. To meet this perceived need, researchers have proposed a vast number of taxonomies. These include ignorance auditing, type one-two-three errors, a combination of uncertainty and decision stakes through post-normal science and the plotting of ignorance of probabilities against ignorance of consequences. Any of these could be used to define a precautionary principle region inside a multidimensional space and to position an issue within that region. The role of anticipatory research is clearly critical but scientific input is only part of the picture. It is difficult to imagine an issue where the application of the Precautionary Principle would be non-contentious. From genetically-modified food to electro-smog, from climate change to hormone growth in meat, it is clear that: 1) risk and cost-benefit are only part of the picture; 2) there are ethical issues involved; 3) there is a plurality of interests and perspectives that are often in conflict; 4) there will be losers and winners whatever decision is made. Operationalization of the Precautionary Principle must preserve transparency. Only in this way will the incommensurable costs and benefits associated with different stakeholders be registered. A typical decision will include the following sorts of considerations: 1) the commercial interests of companies and the communities that depend on them; 2) the worldviews of those who might want a greener, less consumerist society and/or who believe in the sanctity of human or animal life; 3) potential benefits such as enabling the

  6. The Precautionary Principle: implications for risk management strategies.

    PubMed

    Saltelli, Andrea; Funtowicz, Silvio

    2004-01-01

    The European Commission has published a Communication on the Precautionary Principle and a White Book on Governance. These provide us (as research civil servants of the Commission) an institutional framework for handling scientific information that is often incomplete, uncertain, and contested. But, although the Precautionary Principle is intuitively straightforward to understand, there is no agreed way of applying it to real decision-making. To meet this perceived need, researchers have proposed a vast number of taxonomies. These include ignorance auditing, type one-two-three errors, a combination of uncertainty and decision stakes through post-normal science and the plotting of ignorance of probabilities against ignorance of consequences. Any of these could be used to define a precautionary principle region inside a multidimensional space and to position an issue within that region. The role of anticipatory research is clearly critical but scientific input is only part of the picture. It is difficult to imagine an issue where the application of the Precautionary Principle would be non-contentious. From genetically-modified food to electro-smog, from climate change to hormone growth in meat, it is clear that: 1) risk and cost-benefit are only part of the picture; 2) there are ethical issues involved; 3) there is a plurality of interests and perspectives that are often in conflict; 4) there will be losers and winners whatever decision is made. Operationalization of the Precautionary Principle must preserve transparency. Only in this way will the incommensurable costs and benefits associated with different stakeholders be registered. A typical decision will include the following sorts of considerations: 1) the commercial interests of companies and the communities that depend on them; 2) the worldviews of those who might want a greener, less consumerist society and/or who believe in the sanctity of human or animal life; 3) potential benefits such as enabling the

  7. Stratification of complexity in congenital heart surgery: comparative study of the Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) method, Aristotle basic score and Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio- Thoracic Surgery (STS-EACTS) mortality score

    PubMed Central

    Cavalcanti, Paulo Ernando Ferraz; Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros de Oliveira; dos Santos, Cecília Andrade; Esmeraldo, Isaac Melo; Chaves, Mariana Leal; Lins, Ricardo Felipe de Albuquerque; Lima, Ricardo de Carvalho

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine whether stratification of complexity models in congenital heart surgery (RACHS-1, Aristotle basic score and STS-EACTS mortality score) fit to our center and determine the best method of discriminating hospital mortality. Methods Surgical procedures in congenital heart diseases in patients under 18 years of age were allocated to the categories proposed by the stratification of complexity methods currently available. The outcome hospital mortality was calculated for each category from the three models. Statistical analysis was performed to verify whether the categories presented different mortalities. The discriminatory ability of the models was determined by calculating the area under the ROC curve and a comparison between the curves of the three models was performed. Results 360 patients were allocated according to the three methods. There was a statistically significant difference between the mortality categories: RACHS-1 (1) - 1.3%, (2) - 11.4%, (3)-27.3%, (4) - 50 %, (P<0.001); Aristotle basic score (1) - 1.1%, (2) - 12.2%, (3) - 34%, (4) - 64.7%, (P<0.001); and STS-EACTS mortality score (1) - 5.5 %, (2) - 13.6%, (3) - 18.7%, (4) - 35.8%, (P<0.001). The three models had similar accuracy by calculating the area under the ROC curve: RACHS-1- 0.738; STS-EACTS-0.739; Aristotle- 0.766. Conclusion The three models of stratification of complexity currently available in the literature are useful with different mortalities between the proposed categories with similar discriminatory capacity for hospital mortality. PMID:26107445

  8. Decision analytic strategies for integrating ecosystem services and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    von Stackelberg, Katherine E

    2013-04-01

    Ecosystem services as a concept and guiding principle are enjoying wide popularity and endorsement from high-level policy thinkers to industry as support for sustainability goals continue to grow. However, explicit incorporation of ecosystem services into decision making still lacks practical implementation at more local scales and faces significant regulatory and technical constraints. Risk assessment represents an example of a regulatory process for which guidance exists that makes it challenging to incorporate ecosystem service endpoints. Technical constraints exist in the quantification of the relationships between ecological functions and services and endpoints valued by humans, and the complexity of those interactions with respect to bundling and stacking. In addition, ecosystem services, by their very definition, represent an anthropogenic construct with no inherent ecological value, which, in practical terms, requires a far more inclusionary decision making process explicitly incorporating a greater diversity of stakeholder values. Despite these constraints, it is possible, given a commitment to sustainable decision making, to simplify the process based on strategic outcomes (e.g., identifying desired end-states in general terms). Decision analytic techniques provide a mechanism for evaluating tradeoffs across key ecosystem services valued by stakeholders and to develop criteria drawn from the entire spectrum of stakeholders in evaluating potential alternatives. This article highlights several examples of ways in which ecosystem service endpoints can be incorporated into the decision-making process.

  9. Evolving treatment strategies in patients with high-risk acute myeloid leukemia.

    PubMed

    Schiller, Gary J

    2014-11-01

    Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is defined by a set of biologically distinct diseases characterized by maturation arrest and clonal proliferation of myeloid cells. Recommendations for post-remission therapy depend on assessing the leukemia risk characteristics, such as cytogenetics and molecular features present at diagnosis. Patients with high-risk disease include those whose leukemia is characterized by monosomal karyotype or poor-risk cytogenetic or molecular abnormalities, patients with antecedent hematologic disorders or therapy-related AML, and presence of adverse host factors, such as comorbidities, impaired performance status or older age. Older patients are more likely to have these adverse features. High-risk AML responds poorly to available induction treatment and is likely to relapse despite consolidation therapy. Current data support an increasing understanding of prognosis but have not yet resulted in effective therapies for patients with high-risk disease. This review discusses current therapies and evolving treatment strategies for high-risk AML.

  10. Talking about familial breast cancer risk: topics and strategies to enhance mother-daughter interactions.

    PubMed

    Fisher, Carla L; Maloney, Erin; Glogowski, Emily; Hurley, Karen; Edgerson, Shawna; Lichtenthal, Wendy G; Kissane, David; Bylund, Carma

    2014-04-01

    A hereditary cancer predisposition can rattle families, creating dysfunctional interactions. Families need assistance navigating conversations about risk. Because mothers and daughters uniquely share breast cancer experiences and risk, there is a particular need for practitioners to assist them with communication. Three focus groups were conducted with 11 mothers with an elevated cancer risk (with adolescent daughters) receiving genetic counseling. We explored three inquiries to capture mother-daughter communication: emergent challenging topics (e.g., health-promotion behavior, daughter's risk, mother's risk of death), factors complicating discussions (e.g., balancing what to share and when, guilt and blaming, confusion about risk and prevention), and strategies enhancing conversations initiated by mothers (e.g., paying attention to daughter's cues) or practitioners (e.g., inviting daughters to appointments). Findings suggested that mothers struggle to balance eliciting daughters' concerns, providing them with support, and imparting knowledge without overwhelming them. We offer mothers and practitioners guidance to help facilitate these conversations.

  11. Potential Risks and Mitigation Strategies Before the Conduct of a Clinical Trial: An Industry Perspective.

    PubMed

    Bhagat, Seema; Kapatkar, Vaibhavi K; Mourya, Meenakshi; Roy, Sucheta; Jha, Shailendra; Reddy, Rajasekhar; Kadhe, Ganesh; Mane, Amey; Sawant, Sandesh

    2016-01-01

    Conduct of clinical trials has undergone substantial changes over the last two decades. Newer markets, evolving guidelines and documentation and high cost involved in conducting the trials have led pharmaceutical companies to prepare a risk mitigation plan. Extensive monitoring of potential risks is an essential element of clinical trials which helps to ensure quality and integrity of a clinical investigation. Every clinical trial has pre (before the trial), conduct and post phase. This article which has been developed as a result of extensive research at ground level by a reputed pharmaceutical company to identify the potential stages of risks that could affect the overall quality and safety of a trial and its outcome during the pre-phase of trial (the stage of the trial where the study design is being planned before initiation of the clinical trial). It includes risks associated with basic study concept, protocol design, Confidential Disclosure Agreement (CDA) and Clinical Trial Authorization (CTA) application signing, vendors of central drug laboratory, site and investigator selection, Clinical Research Coordinator (CRC) meet, Informed Consent Form (ICF), Case Report Form (CRF)/ Status Report Form (SRF) preparation, Ethics Committee (EC) submission, etc. have been highlighted. The risk based mitigation strategy (to develop an effective risk monitoring plan before staring a clinical trial) has also been suggested by authors. A well-tailored and integrated plan, recognition of potential risks and their mitigation strategy can result in the pre exclusion or end to end solution of all the risks associated with pre- phase of clinical trials.

  12. Fundamental Interactions in Gasoline Compression Ignition Engines with Fuel Stratification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolk, Benjamin Matthew

    Transportation accounted for 28% of the total U.S. energy demand in 2011, with 93% of U.S. transportation energy coming from petroleum. The large impact of the transportation sector on global climate change necessitates more-efficient, cleaner-burning internal combustion engine operating strategies. One such strategy that has received substantial research attention in the last decade is Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI). Although the efficiency and emissions benefits of HCCI are well established, practical limits on the operating range of HCCI engines have inhibited their application in consumer vehicles. One such limit is at high load, where the pressure rise rate in the combustion chamber becomes excessively large. Fuel stratification is a potential strategy for reducing the maximum pressure rise rate in HCCI engines. The aim is to introduce reactivity gradients through fuel stratification to promote sequential auto-ignition rather than a bulk-ignition, as in the homogeneous case. A gasoline-fueled compression ignition engine with fuel stratification is termed a Gasoline Compression Ignition (GCI) engine. Although a reasonable amount of experimental research has been performed for fuel stratification in GCI engines, a clear understanding of how the fundamental in-cylinder processes of fuel spray evaporation, mixing, and heat release contribute to the observed phenomena is lacking. Of particular interest is gasoline's pressure sensitive low-temperature chemistry and how it impacts the sequential auto-ignition of the stratified charge. In order to computationally study GCI with fuel stratification using three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and chemical kinetics, two reduced mechanisms have been developed. The reduced mechanisms were developed from a large, detailed mechanism with about 1400 species for a 4-component gasoline surrogate. The two versions of the reduced mechanism developed in this work are: (1) a 96-species version and (2

  13. Mud Pit Risk-Based Closure Strategy Report, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, Revision 0

    SciTech Connect

    Brain Hoenes

    2004-08-01

    This report presents the findings of the human and ecological risk assessment for the NTS mud pits. The risk assessment utilizes data from 52 of the 270 NTS mud pits in conjunction with corroborative data from 87 other DOE mud pits associated with nuclear testing (at locations on the NTS, in the western United States, and Alaska) as well as relevant process knowledge. Based on the risk assessment findings, the report provides a strategy for further evaluation, characterization, and closure of all 270 NTS mud pit CASs using the Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration (SAFER).

  14. Analytic Strategies to Adjust Confounding Using Exposure Propensity Scores and Disease Risk Scores: Nonsteroidal Antiinflammatory Drugs (NSAID) and Short-term Mortality in the Elderly

    PubMed Central

    Stürmer, Til; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Brookhart, M. Alan; Rothman, Kenneth J; Avorn, Jerry; Glynn, Robert J

    2006-01-01

    Little is known about optimal application and behavior of exposure propensity scores (EPS) in small studies. Based on a cohort of 103,133 elderly Medicaid beneficiaries, the effect of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use on 1-year all-cause mortality was assessed based on the assumption that there is no protective effect, and the preponderance of any observed effect would be confounded. To study the comparative behavior of EPS, disease risk scores (DRS), and ‘traditional’ disease models, we randomly re-sampled 1,000 subcohorts of 10,000, 1,000 and 500 people. The number of variables was limited in disease models, but not EPS and DRS. Estimated EPS were used to adjust for confounding by matching, inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), stratification, and modeling. The crude rate ratio (RR) of death for NSAID users was 0.68. ‘Traditional’ adjustment resulted in a RR of 0.80 (95% confidence interval:0.77–0.84). The RR closest to 1 was achieved by IPTW (0.85;0.82–0.88). With decreasing study size, estimates remained further from the null, which was most pronounced for IPTW (N=500: RR=0.72;0.26–1.68). In this setting, analytic strategies using EPS or DRS were not generally superior to ‘traditional’. Various ways to use EPS and DRS behaved differently with smaller study size. PMID:15840622

  15. Early Adolescent Health Risk Behaviors, Conflict Resolution Strategies, and School Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    LaRusso, Maria; Selman, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Drawing upon an ethnically and socio-economically diverse sample of 323 7th grade students from twelve urban schools within one school district, this mixed method study examined early adolescents' self-reported health risk behaviors as related to their conflict resolution strategies and their school's conflict resolution climate. Survey data…

  16. Exploring Young Children's Understanding of Risks Associated with Internet Usage and Their Concepts of Management Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ey, Lesley-Anne; Cupit, C. Glenn

    2011-01-01

    The Internet provides remarkable opportunities for children's learning and development. Nevertheless, it is unregulated and hard to control, which potentially places children at risk of exploitation. This study examined five-eight-year-old children's understanding of dangers associated with the Internet, management strategies and sources of their…

  17. Promoting At-Risk Preschool Children's Comprehension through Research-Based Strategy Instruction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeBruin-Parecki, Andrea; Squibb, Kathryn

    2011-01-01

    Young children living in poor urban neighborhoods are often at risk for reading difficulties, in part because developing listening comprehension strategies and vocabulary knowledge may not be a priority in their prekindergarten classrooms, whose curriculums typically focus heavily on phonological awareness and alphabet knowledge. Prereading…

  18. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-03

    ... Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge; Public Workshop; Issue Paper AGENCY: Food and... Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The... patients' and health care providers' knowledge about the risks of drugs marketed with an approved...

  19. Working It Out: Performance Management Strategies for Increasing Services to At-Risk Youth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Youth Programs: Practical Lessons from Research and Program Experience, 1989

    1989-01-01

    This journal issue summarizes the main points of a two-volume guide to youth performance management: "Working It Out: An Anthology of State and Local Performance Management Strategies Designed to Increase Services to Youth at Risk of Chronic Unemployment." The guide draws on the experiences of state and local practitioners in identifying specific…

  20. Word-Problem-Solving Strategy for Minority Students at Risk for Math Difficulties

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kong, Jennifer E.; Orosco, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    Minority students at risk for math difficulties (MD) struggle with word problems for various reasons beyond procedural or calculation challenges. As a result, these students require support in reading and language development in addition to math. The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of a math comprehension strategy based on a…

  1. Discovering a Gold Mine of Strategies for At-Risk Students through Systematic Staff Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bernal, Jesse R.; Villarreal, Diana

    This paper discusses an effective model of systematic staff development focusing on prevention and intervention strategies used with at-risk students. The following are key elements: (1) matching of the purposes of training to the goals of the school districts; (2) multiple and integrated activities; (3) participants' thorough orientation to the…

  2. Prognostic stratification of acute pulmonary embolism: Focus on clinical aspects, imaging, and biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    Masotti, Luca; Righini, Marc; Vuilleumier, Nicolas; Antonelli, Fabio; Landini, Giancarlo; Cappelli, Roberto; Ray, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    Pulmonary embolism (PE) represents a common disease in emergency medicine and guidelines for diagnosis and treatment have had wide diffusion. However, PE morbidity and mortality remain high, especially when associated to hemodynamic instability or right ventricular dysfunction. Prognostic stratification to identify high risk patients needing to receive more aggressive pharmacological and closer monitoring is of utmost importance. Modern guidelines for management of acute PE are based on risk stratification using either clinical, radiological, or laboratory findings. This article reviews the modern treatment of acute PE, which is customized upon patient prognosis. Accordingly the current risk stratification tools described in the literature such as clinical scores, echocardiography, helical computer tomography, and biomarkers will be reviewed. PMID:19649307

  3. The Effectiveness of Different Diet Strategies to Reduce Type 2 Diabetes Risk in Youth

    PubMed Central

    Gow, Megan L.; Garnett, Sarah P.; Baur, Louise A.; Lister, Natalie B.

    2016-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents has become a prominent clinical issue in recent decades. Increasing numbers of young people have risk factors for type 2 diabetes, particularly obesity, indicating the need for effective type 2 diabetes prevention strategies. The aim of this review was to identify specific dietary strategies that optimize improvements in risk factors for type 2 diabetes in youth and hence reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes development. Our review of the current literature indicates that dietary interventions lead to weight loss when intervention adherence is high. However, in addition to weight loss, a diet that is reduced in carbohydrates may optimize improvements in other type 2 diabetes risk factors, including insulin resistance and hyperglycemia. While further research is needed to confirm this finding, reduced carbohydrate diets may include a very low-carbohydrate diet, a very low-energy diet, a lower-glycemic-index diet, and/or an intermittent fasting diet. This array of dietary strategies provides a suite of intervention options for clinicians to recommend to young people at risk of type 2 diabetes. However, these findings are in contrast to current guidelines for the prevention of type 2 diabetes in adults which recommends a low-fat, high-carbohydrate diet. PMID:27517953

  4. The Effectiveness of Different Diet Strategies to Reduce Type 2 Diabetes Risk in Youth.

    PubMed

    Gow, Megan L; Garnett, Sarah P; Baur, Louise A; Lister, Natalie B

    2016-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents has become a prominent clinical issue in recent decades. Increasing numbers of young people have risk factors for type 2 diabetes, particularly obesity, indicating the need for effective type 2 diabetes prevention strategies. The aim of this review was to identify specific dietary strategies that optimize improvements in risk factors for type 2 diabetes in youth and hence reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes development. Our review of the current literature indicates that dietary interventions lead to weight loss when intervention adherence is high. However, in addition to weight loss, a diet that is reduced in carbohydrates may optimize improvements in other type 2 diabetes risk factors, including insulin resistance and hyperglycemia. While further research is needed to confirm this finding, reduced carbohydrate diets may include a very low-carbohydrate diet, a very low-energy diet, a lower-glycemic-index diet, and/or an intermittent fasting diet. This array of dietary strategies provides a suite of intervention options for clinicians to recommend to young people at risk of type 2 diabetes. However, these findings are in contrast to current guidelines for the prevention of type 2 diabetes in adults which recommends a low-fat, high-carbohydrate diet. PMID:27517953

  5. Communication strategies to address geohydrological risks: the POLARIS web initiative in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvati, Paola; Pernice, Umberto; Bianchi, Cinzia; Marchesini, Ivan; Fiorucci, Federica; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2016-06-01

    Floods and landslides are common phenomena that cause serious damage and pose a severe threat to the population of Italy. The social and economic impact of floods and landslides in Italy is severe, and strategies to target the mitigation of the effects of these phenomena are needed. In the last few years, the scientific community has started to use web technology to communicate information on geohydrological hazards and the associated risks. However, the communication is often targeted at technical experts. In the attempt to communicate relevant information on geohydrological hazards with potential human consequences to a broader audience, we designed the POpoLazione A RISchio (POLARIS) website. POLARIS publishes accurate information on geohydrological risk to the population of Italy, including periodic reports on landslide and flood risk, analyses of specific damaging events and blog posts on landslide and flood events. By monitoring the access to POLARIS in the 21-month period between January 2014 and October 2015, we found that access increased during particularly damaging geohydrological events and immediately after the website was advertised by press releases. POLARIS demonstrates that the scientific community can implement suitable communication strategies that address different societal audiences, exploiting the role of mass media and social media. The strategies can help multiple audiences understand how risks can be reduced through appropriate measures and behaviours, contributing to increasing the resilience of the population to geohydrological risk.

  6. Agent based models for testing city evacuation strategies under a flood event as strategy to reduce flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medina, Neiler; Sanchez, Arlex; Nokolic, Igor; Vojinovic, Zoran

    2016-04-01

    This research explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities at risk from flood events due to extreme hydro-meteorological events with the final purpose of disaster risk reduction by decreasing human's exposure to the hazard. The first part of the paper corresponds to the theory used to build the models such as: Complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. The first section outlines the pros and cons of using AMB to test city evacuation strategies at medium and large scale. The second part of the paper focuses on the central theory used to build the ABM, specifically the psychological and behavioral model as well as the framework used in this research, specifically the PECS reference model is cover in this section. The last part of this section covers the main attributes or characteristics of human beings used to described the agents. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast-Symphony as an open source agent-based modelling and simulation platform. The preliminary results for the first implementation in a region of the island of Sint-Maarten a Dutch Caribbean island are presented and discussed in the fourth section of paper. The results obtained so far, are promising for a further development of the model and its implementation and testing in a full scale city

  7. SY 04-1 CVD RISK PREDICTION IN HIGH-RISK VERSUS LOW-RISK POPULATIONS.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hyeon Chang

    2016-09-01

    Disease risk prediction models have been developed to assess the impact of multiple risk factors and to estimate an individual's absolute disease risk. Accurate disease prediction is essential for personalized prevention, because the benefits, risks, and costs of alternative strategies must be weighed to choose the best preventive strategy for individual patients. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction is the earliest example of individual risk predictions. Since the Framingham study reported a CVD risk prediction method in 1976, an increasing number of risk assessment tools have been developed to CVD risk in various settings. The Framingham study results are fundamental evidence for the prediction of CVD risk. However, the clinical utility of a disease prediction model can be population-specific because the baseline disease risk, subtype distribution of the disease, and level of exposure to risk factors differ by region and ethnicity.It has been proved that CVD prediction models which were developed in high-risk populations, such as the Framingham Risk Score, overestimate an individual's disease risk when applied to a low-risk population without re-calibration. Thus countries of relatively low CVD risk are trying to re-calibrate the existing CVD prediction models or to develop a new prediction model analyzing their own population data. However, even the re-calibrated or newly-developed CVD prediction models are often of little clinical value in a low-risk population. A good example is the CVD prediction in the Korean population. Compared to Western populations, the Korean population has much lower incidence of coronary heart disease. Therefore, the vast majority of individuals fall into the low-risk group when their disease risk is assessed with a prediction model. Even a well-validated prediction model may not identify high-risk individuals who merit aggressive preventive treatment.A few alternative approaches have been suggested for CVD risk prediction in a low-risk

  8. Infanticide as a male reproductive strategy has a nutritive risk effect in brown bears.

    PubMed

    Steyaert, S M J G; Reusch, C; Brunberg, S; Swenson, J E; Hackländer, K; Zedrosser, A

    2013-10-23

    Behavioural strategies to reduce predation risk can incur costs, which are often referred to as risk effects. A common strategy to avoid predation is spatio-temporal avoidance of predators, in which prey typically trade optimal resources for safety. Analogous with predator-prey theory, risk effects should also arise in species with sexually selected infanticide (SSI), in which females with dependent offspring avoid infanticidal males. SSI can be common in brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations and explains spatio-temporal segregation among reproductive classes. Here, we show that in a population with SSI, females with cubs-of-the-year had lower quality diets than conspecifics during the SSI high-risk period, the mating season. After the mating season, their diets were of similar quality to diets of their conspecifics. Our results suggest a nutritive risk effect of SSI, in which females with cubs-of-the-year alter their resource selection and trade optimal resources for offspring safety. Such risk effects can add to female costs of reproduction and may be widespread among species with SSI.

  9. Preventing Chronic Pain following Acute Pain: Risk Factors, Preventive Strategies, and their Efficacy

    PubMed Central

    McGreevy, Kai; Bottros, Michael M.; Raja, Srinivasa N.

    2011-01-01

    Chronic pain is the leading cause of disability in the United States. The transition from acute to persistent pain is thought to arise from maladaptive neuroplastic mechanisms involving three intertwined processes, peripheral sensitization, central sensitization, and descending modulation. Strategies aimed at preventing persistent pain may target such processes. Models for studying preventive strategies include persistent post-surgical pain (PPP), persistent post-trauma pain (PTP) and post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN). Such entities allow a more defined acute onset of tissue injury after which study of the long-term effects is more easily examined. In this review, we examine the pathophysiology, epidemiology, risk factors, and treatment strategies for the prevention of chronic pain using these models. Both pharmacological and interventional approaches are described, as well as a discussion of preventive strategies on the horizon. PMID:22102847

  10. Risk of sudden cardiac death in chronic kidney disease.

    PubMed

    Poulikakos, Dimitrios; Banerjee, Debasish; Malik, Marek

    2014-02-01

    The review discusses the epidemiology and the possible underlying mechanisms of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in chronic kidney disease (CKD), and highlights the unmet clinical need for noninvasive risk stratification strategies in these patients. Although renal dysfunction shares common risk factors and often coexists with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, the presence of renal impairment increases the risk of arrhythmic complications to an extent that cannot be explained by the severity of the atherosclerotic process. Renal impairment is an independent risk factor for SCD from the early stages of CKD; the risk increases as renal function declines and reaches very high levels in patients with end-stage renal disease on dialysis. Autonomic imbalance, uremic cardiomyopathy, and electrolyte disturbances likely play a role in increasing the arrhythmic risk and can be potential targets for treatment. Cardioverter defibrillator treatment could be offered as lifesaving treatment in selected patients, although selection strategies for this treatment mode are presently problematic in dialyzed patients. The review also examines the current experience with risk stratification tools in renal patients and suggests that noninvasive electrophysiological testing during dialysis may be of clinical value as it provides the necessary standardized environment for reproducible measurements for risk stratification purposes. PMID:24256575

  11. Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Establishing Perchlorate and Goitrogen Risk Mitigation Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Crawford-Brown, Douglas

    2015-01-01

    This paper applies probabilistic risk assessment in quantifying risks from cumulative and aggregate risk pathways for selected goitrogens in water and food. Results show that the percentages of individuals with a Hazard Index (HI) value above 1 ranges between 30% and 50% both with and without serum half-life correction when a traditional regulatory assessment approach based on establishment of a No Observed Effects Level (NOEL) is used. When an exposure-response curve is instead used and a threshold of 50% inhibition is assumed, 1.1% or less of the population exceeds an HI value of 1 with no serum half-life correction, rising to as high as 11% when serum half-life correction is applied. If 0% to 5% threshold for iodide uptake inhibition is assumed for production of adverse effects, the percentage of the population with an HI above 1 is 46.2% or less with no serum half-life correction, and 47.2% or less when serum half-life correction is applied. The probabilistic analysis shows that while there are exposed groups for whom perchlorate exposures are the primary cause of individuals having HI values above 1, these constitute significantly less than 1% of the population. Instead, the potential risk from exposure to goitrogens is dominated by nitrates without serum half-life correction and thiocyanates with serum half-life correction, suggesting public health protection is better accomplished by a focus on these and other goitrogens expect in highly limited cases where waterborne perchlorate is at unusually high concentrations. PMID:26322488

  12. Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Establishing Perchlorate and Goitrogen Risk Mitigation Strategies.

    PubMed

    Crawford-Brown, Douglas

    2015-09-01

    This paper applies probabilistic risk assessment in quantifying risks from cumulative and aggregate risk pathways for selected goitrogens in water and food. Results show that the percentages of individuals with a Hazard Index (HI) value above 1 ranges between 30% and 50% both with and without serum half-life correction when a traditional regulatory assessment approach based on establishment of a No Observed Effects Level (NOEL) is used. When an exposure-response curve is instead used and a threshold of 50% inhibition is assumed, 1.1% or less of the population exceeds an HI value of 1 with no serum half-life correction, rising to as high as 11% when serum half-life correction is applied. If 0% to 5% threshold for iodide uptake inhibition is assumed for production of adverse effects, the percentage of the population with an HI above 1 is 46.2% or less with no serum half-life correction, and 47.2% or less when serum half-life correction is applied. The probabilistic analysis shows that while there are exposed groups for whom perchlorate exposures are the primary cause of individuals having HI values above 1, these constitute significantly less than 1% of the population. Instead, the potential risk from exposure to goitrogens is dominated by nitrates without serum half-life correction and thiocyanates with serum half-life correction, suggesting public health protection is better accomplished by a focus on these and other goitrogens expect in highly limited cases where waterborne perchlorate is at unusually high concentrations. PMID:26322488

  13. Flash Flood Risk Perception in an Italian Alpine Region. From Research into Adaptive Strategies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scolobig, A.; de Marchi, B.; Borga, M.

    2009-04-01

    Flash floods are characterised by short lead times and high levels of uncertainty. Adaptive strategies to face them need to take into account not only the physical characteristics of the hydro-geological phenomena, but also peoples' risk perceptions, attitudes and behaviours in case of an emergency. It is quite obvious that a precondition for an effective adaptation, e.g. in the case of a warning, is the awareness of being endangered. At the same time the perceptions of those at risk and their likely actions inform hazard warning strategies and recovery programmes following such events. Usually low risk awareness or "wrong perceptions" of the residents are considered among the causes of an inadequate preparedness or response to flash floods as well as a symptom of a scarce self-protection culture. In this paper we will focus on flood risk perception and on how research on this topic may contribute to design adaptive strategies and give inputs to flood policy decisions. We will report on a flood risk perception study of the population residing in four villages in an Italian Alpine Region (Trentino Alto-Adige), carried out between October 2005 and January 2006. A total of 400 standardised questionnaires were submitted to local residents by face to face interviews. The surveys were preceded by focus groups with officers from agencies in charge of flood risk management and semi-structured and in-depth interviews with policy, scientific and technical experts. Survey results indicated that people are not so worried about hydro-geological phenomena, and think that their community is more endangered than themselves. The knowledge of the territory and danger sources, the unpredictability of flash floods and the feeling of safety induced by structural devices are the main elements which make the difference in shaping residents' perceptions. The study also demonstrated a widespread lack of adoption of preparatory measures among residents, together with a general low

  14. Flood risk and adaptation strategies in Indonesia: a probabilistic analysis using globally available data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, global flood losses are increasing due to socio-economic development and climate change, with the largest risk increases in developing countries such as Indonesia. For countries to undertake effective risk-management, an accurate understanding of both current and future risk is required. However, detailed information is rarely available, particularly for developing countries. We present a first of its kind country-scale analysis of flood risk using globally available data that combines a global inundation model with a land use change model and more local data on flood damages. To assess the contribution and uncertainty of different drivers of future risk, we integrate thousands of socio-economic and climate projections in a probabilistic way and include multiple adaptation strategies. Indonesia is used as a case-study as it a country that already faces high flood risk, and is undergoing rapid urbanization. We developed probabilistic and spatially-explicit urban expansion projections from 2000 to 2030 that show that the increase in urban extent ranges from 215% to 357% (5th and 95th percentile). We project rapidly rising flood risk, both for coastal and river floods. This increase is largely driven by economic growth and urban expansion (i.e. increasing exposure). Whilst sea level rise will amply this trend, the response of river floods to climate change is uncertain with the impact of the mean ensemble of 20 climate projections (5 GCMs and 4 RCPs) being close to zero. However, as urban expansion is the main driving force of future risk, we argue that the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly pressing, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Hence, we evaluated the effectiveness of two adaptation measures: spatial planning in flood prone areas and enhanced flood protection. Both strategies have a large potential to effectively offset the increasing risk trend. The risk reduction is in the range of 22-85% and 53

  15. Environmental Strategies for Prevention of Drug Use and Risks in Clubs

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Brenda A.; Holder, Harold D.; Voas, Robert B.

    2009-01-01

    Environmental prevention strategies in club settings where music and dance events are featured could provide an important new arena for the prevention of drug use and other risky behaviors (e.g., sexual risk taking, intoxication and drug use, aggression, and driving under the influence). Electronic music dance events (EMDEs) occur in clubs that attract young, emerging adults (18–25 years of age) and attract individuals who engage in various types of drug use. Borrowing from the environmental prevention studies that focus on reducing alcohol use and related problems, a model for drug prevention in the club setting is proposed. Initially, an overview of the relationships between EMDEs and drug use and other risky behaviors are presented. Next, rationales for environmental strategies are provided. Finally, an environmental approach to prevention of drug use and risky behaviors in clubs is described. This comprehensive set of environmental strategies, is designed to be mutually supportive and interactive. Environmental strategies are believed to provide potential for developing an efficacious prevention strategy. The environmental prevention approach presented here is composed of three intervention domains: (1) Mobilization, (2) Strategies for the Exterior Environment, and (3) Strategies for the Interior Environment. PMID:20216925

  16. Divergent Associations of Antecedent- and Response-Focused Emotion Regulation Strategies with Midlife Cardiovascular Disease Risk

    PubMed Central

    Loucks, Eric B.; Buka, Stephen L.; Kubzansky, Laura D.

    2014-01-01

    Background It is not known whether various forms of emotion regulation are differentially related to cardiovascular disease risk. Purpose The purpose of this study is to assess whether antecedent and response-focused emotion regulation would have divergent associations with likelihood of developing cardiovascular disease. Methods Two emotion regulation strategies were examined: reappraisal (antecedent-focused) and suppression (response-focused). Cardiovascular disease risk was assessed with a validated Framingham algorithm that estimates the likelihood of developing CVD in 10 years. Associations were assessed among 373 adults via multiple linear regression. Pathways and gender-specific associations were also considered. Results One standard deviation increases in reappraisal and suppression were associated with 5.9 % lower and 10.0 % higher 10-year cardiovascular disease risk, respectively, in adjusted analyses. Conclusions Divergent associations of antecedent and response-focused emotion regulation with cardiovascular disease risk were observed. Effective emotion regulation may promote cardiovascular health. PMID:24570218

  17. Cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit analyses of risk-based screening strategies for breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Vilaprinyo, Ester; Forné, Carles; Carles, Misericordia; Sala, Maria; Pla, Roger; Castells, Xavier; Domingo, Laia; Rue, Montserrat

    2014-01-01

    The one-size-fits-all paradigm in organized screening of breast cancer is shifting towards a personalized approach. The present study has two objectives: 1) To perform an economic evaluation and to assess the harm-benefit ratios of screening strategies that vary in their intensity and interval ages based on breast cancer risk; and 2) To estimate the gain in terms of cost and harm reductions using risk-based screening with respect to the usual practice. We used a probabilistic model and input data from Spanish population registries and screening programs, as well as from clinical studies, to estimate the benefit, harm, and costs over time of 2,624 screening strategies, uniform or risk-based. We defined four risk groups, low, moderate-low, moderate-high and high, based on breast density, family history of breast cancer and personal history of breast biopsy. The risk-based strategies were obtained combining the exam periodicity (annual, biennial, triennial and quinquennial), the starting ages (40, 45 and 50 years) and the ending ages (69 and 74 years) in the four risk groups. Incremental cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit ratios were used to select the optimal strategies. Compared to risk-based strategies, the uniform ones result in a much lower benefit for a specific cost. Reductions close to 10% in costs and higher than 20% in false-positive results and overdiagnosed cases were obtained for risk-based strategies. Optimal screening is characterized by quinquennial or triennial periodicities for the low or moderate risk-groups and annual periodicity for the high-risk group. Risk-based strategies can reduce harm and costs. It is necessary to develop accurate measures of individual risk and to work on how to implement risk-based screening strategies.

  18. Cost-Effectiveness and Harm-Benefit Analyses of Risk-Based Screening Strategies for Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Carles, Misericordia; Sala, Maria; Pla, Roger; Castells, Xavier; Domingo, Laia; Rue, Montserrat

    2014-01-01

    The one-size-fits-all paradigm in organized screening of breast cancer is shifting towards a personalized approach. The present study has two objectives: 1) To perform an economic evaluation and to assess the harm-benefit ratios of screening strategies that vary in their intensity and interval ages based on breast cancer risk; and 2) To estimate the gain in terms of cost and harm reductions using risk-based screening with respect to the usual practice. We used a probabilistic model and input data from Spanish population registries and screening programs, as well as from clinical studies, to estimate the benefit, harm, and costs over time of 2,624 screening strategies, uniform or risk-based. We defined four risk groups, low, moderate-low, moderate-high and high, based on breast density, family history of breast cancer and personal history of breast biopsy. The risk-based strategies were obtained combining the exam periodicity (annual, biennial, triennial and quinquennial), the starting ages (40, 45 and 50 years) and the ending ages (69 and 74 years) in the four risk groups. Incremental cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit ratios were used to select the optimal strategies. Compared to risk-based strategies, the uniform ones result in a much lower benefit for a specific cost. Reductions close to 10% in costs and higher than 20% in false-positive results and overdiagnosed cases were obtained for risk-based strategies. Optimal screening is characterized by quinquennial or triennial periodicities for the low or moderate risk-groups and annual periodicity for the high-risk group. Risk-based strategies can reduce harm and costs. It is necessary to develop accurate measures of individual risk and to work on how to implement risk-based screening strategies. PMID:24498285

  19. Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, B.L.; Gajewski, S.J.; Glantz, C.L.

    1996-09-01

    This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various {open_quotes}constraint levels{close_quotes} have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the {open_quotes}costs{close_quote} of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria.

  20. Ochratoxins in Feed, a Risk for Animal and Human Health: Control Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Denli, Muzaffer; Perez, Jose F.

    2010-01-01

    Ochratoxin A (OTA) has been shown to be a potent nephrotoxic, hepatotoxic, and teratogenic compound. In farm animals, the intake of feed contaminated with OTA affects animal health and productivity, and may result in the presence of OTA in the animal products. Strategies for the control of OTA in food products require early identification and elimination of contaminated commodities from the food chain. However, current analytical protocols may fail to identify contaminated products, especially in animal feed. The present paper discusses the impact of OTA on human and animal health, with special emphasis on the potential risks of OTA residue in animal products, and control strategies applied in the feed industry. PMID:22069626

  1. Reporting pesticide assessment results to farmworker families: development, implementation, and evaluation of a risk communication strategy.

    PubMed Central

    Quandt, Sara A; Doran, Alicia M; Rao, Pamela; Hoppin, Jane A; Snively, Beverly M; Arcury, Thomas A

    2004-01-01

    The collection of environmental samples presents a responsibility to return information to the affected participants. Explaining complex and often ambiguous scientific information to a lay audience is a challenge. As shown by environmental justice research, this audience frequently has limited formal education, increasing the challenge for researchers to explain the data collected, the risk indicated by the findings, and action the affected community should take. In this study we describe the development and implementation of a risk communication strategy for environmental pesticide samples collected in the homes of Latino/a migrant and seasonal farmworkers in a community-based participatory research project. The communication strategy was developed with community input and was based on face-to-face meetings with members of participating households. Using visual displays of data effectively conveyed information about individual household contamination and placed it in the context of community findings. The lack of national reference data and definitive standards for action necessitated a simplified risk message. We review the strengths and weaknesses of such an approach and suggest areas for future research in risk communication to communities affected by environmental health risks. PMID:15064174

  2. Feasible adaptation strategies for increased risk of flooding in cities due to climate change.

    PubMed

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Fleischer, H S

    2009-01-01

    Northern Europe is one of the regions where more frequent and more severe storms and storm surges are expected due to climatic changes. In order to maintain an acceptable risk of flooding suitable adaptation strategies must be defined and implemented. Optimum solutions demand collaboration of different professionals and thus simple graphical means must be employed to illustrate the economic impacts of the change in risk of flooding. A case study indicates that urban drainage infrastructure capacity should be upgraded while there is currently no economic incentive to improve protection against sea surges.

  3. Crime, violence, and behavioral health: collaborative community strategies for risk mitigation.

    PubMed

    Pinals, Debra A

    2015-06-01

    Criminal conduct is not always violent, and violence does not always lead to criminal charges. Moreover, crime and violence have multifaceted etiologies. Most violence in society is not attributable to mental illness. Where there is a small relationship between violence and mental illness, the risk of violence increases for individuals with substance use histories. Underlying trauma can also play a role. Antisocial attitudes, behaviors, and peer groups further increase the risk that individuals, including those with mental illness, will find themselves at risk of criminal recidivism. Criminal histories among public mental health populations, and mental health and substance use disorders among criminal populations are each higher than general population comparisons. Care within behavioral health settings should therefore target decreased criminal recidivism and decreased violence as part of recovery for those individuals at risk, using trauma-informed approaches and peer supports. Interventions that show promise bring criminal justice and behavioral health systems together, and include police-based diversion, specialty courts, court-based alternatives to incarceration, and coordinated re-entry programs. This article reviews these options along with specific risk management strategies, such as using risk, needs, and responsivity factors as a means of improving overall outcomes for persons with mental illness, while minimizing their risk of further criminalization and victimization.

  4. The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis

    PubMed Central

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Stahl, Daniel; Borgwardt, Stephan; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Addington, Jean; Perkins, Diana O.; Woods, Scott W.; McGlashan, Thomas; Lee, Jimmy; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Yung, Alison R.; McGuire, Philip

    2016-01-01

    Background: The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Methods: Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR−). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. Results: 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR−: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%–24%, I 2 = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = −.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = −1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = −.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. Conclusions: There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk

  5. Development of a Three-Level Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Brien, N.; Cummins, E.

    The release of nanomaterials and, in particular, free nanoparticles into the environment from secondary sources such as industrial manufacturing and consumer products as well as from intentional environmental application has compelled a need for a broad and pre-emptive analysis of nanomaterial fate and transport in the environment and subsequent potential human exposure pathways. The novel and potentially reactive characteristics of nanomaterials have lead to predictions on potential undesirable ramifications of exposure to these materials on human health. The three-level risk assessment strategy presented in this work has its basis in qualitative model equations that represent the inter-relationships between the different material and process characteristics and environmental behaviors and their relationship to potential exposure scenarios. The factors that influence these behaviors are examined, and the potential application of this risk assessment strategy in a semi-quantitative model is considered.

  6. The Risk-Escalation Model: A Principled Design Strategy for Early-Phase Trials

    PubMed Central

    Hey, Spencer Phillips; Kimmelman, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    Should first-in-human trials be designed to maximize the prospect of therapeutic benefit for volunteers, prioritize avoidance of unintended harms, or aim for some happy medium between the two? Perennial controversies surrounding initiation and design of early-phase trials hinge on how this question is resolved. In this paper, we build on the premise that the task of early-phase testing is to optimize various components of a potential therapy so that later, confirmatory trials have the maximal probability of informing drug development and clinical care. We then explore three strategies that investigators might use to manage trial risks while optimizing a therapy, using cell therapy for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) as an example. We argue that an iterative application of maximin strategies over successive cohorts and trials, which we call the “risk-escalation model,” establishes a moral principle that should guide decision-making in early-phase trials. PMID:25109092

  7. Application of a watershed ecological risk assessment in developing a nitrogen management strategy

    SciTech Connect

    Tyler, P.; Geist, M.; Dow, D.; Clark, H.; Gerritsen, J.

    1995-12-31

    Waquoit Bay is a small estuary on the south shore of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Population in the watershed has increased approximately 1 5 fold in the past 50 years, and residential land use has increased tenfold from 2 percent of the watershed in 1950 to 20 percent in 1990. Of particular concern is nitrogen loading primarily via groundwater from on-site septic systems, fertilizers and atmospheric deposition. Adverse ecological impacts have included: growth of nuisance macroalgae, decreases in water quality, loss of bay scallops and loss of eel grass (Zostera marina) in Waquoit Bay and adjoining coastal ponds. A watershed-based ecological risk assessment was applied to assist in the development of management strategies for the bay. Management goals for the watershed were identified by stakeholders. Endpoints of the risk assessment were derived from the management goals and included: areal extent and patch size of eel grass beds and macroalgal mats, and habitat quality as evidenced by physical, chemical and biological water quality. Ecological response of the endpoints to the nitrogen loading was examined with a regional analysis of eel grass cover, land use, and predicted nitrogen loading in similar embayments of Cape Cod. The uncertainty analysis of the risk assessment allows prediction of the probability of success for a given management strategy; for example, what would be the probability that eel grass would return by reducing the nitrogen load through the implementation of various management strategies. This example shows the utility of the ecological risk assessment approach for developing optimal management strategies to increase the probability of achieving management goals.

  8. Risk factors and prevention strategies of non-contact anterior cruciate ligament injuries.

    PubMed

    Laible, Catherine; Sherman, Orrin H

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the number of women playing sports has increased significantly. The passage of Title IX in 1972 had a significant effect in encouraging female participation in sports. This increase in women's sports participation also led to a rise in noncontact anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries. As ACL injuries in young female athletes have be- come a public health issue, much research has been done on risk factors and prevention strategies.

  9. Pastoral Herding Strategies and Governmental Management Objectives: Predation Compensation as a Risk Buffering Strategy in the Saami Reindeer Husbandry.

    PubMed

    Næss, Marius Warg; Bårdsen, Bård-Jørgen; Pedersen, Elisabeth; Tveraa, Torkild

    2011-08-01

    Previously it has been found that an important risk buffering strategy in the Saami reindeer husbandry in Norway is the accumulation of large herds of reindeer as this increases long-term household viability. Nevertheless, few studies have investigated how official policies, such as economic compensation for livestock losses, can influence pastoral strategies. This study investigated the effect of received predation compensation on individual husbandry units' future herd size. The main finding in this study is that predation compensation had a positive effect on husbandry units' future herd size. The effect of predation compensation, however, was nonlinear in some years, indicating that predation compensation had a positive effect on future herd size only up to a certain threshold whereby adding additional predation compensation had little effect on future herd size. More importantly, the effect of predation compensation was positive after controlling for reindeer density, indicating that for a given reindeer density husbandry units receiving more predation compensation performed better (measured as the size of future herds) compared to husbandry units receiving less compensation.

  10. Stratification and mobility in contemporary Egypt.

    PubMed

    Nagi, Saad Z; Nagi, Omar

    2011-01-01

    The objectives in this statement are to characterize and explain the patterns of change in stratification and mobility in Egypt, over the last half century, by placing them within conceptual, explanatory, and historical contexts. First, literature relevant to the primary concepts of "class" and "status", is reviewed. Second, four institutions whose influence is fundamental in shaping these patterns are identified to form an explanatory context: family, polity, economy, and education. And third, an historical account is presented to demonstrate the interplay of these institutions and their consequences for stratification and mobility. For this, four periods are identified that are marked by change in the dominance of institutions and their corresponding influence on stratification and mobility. In addition to data available in relevant literature, this analysis utilizes primary data generated through a national probability household survey.

  11. A Cross-Cultural Study on Environmental Risk Perception and Educational Strategies: Implications for Environmental Education in China

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duan, Hongxia; Fortner, Rosanne

    2010-01-01

    This cross-cultural study examined college students' environmental risk perception and their preference in terms of risk communication and educational strategies in China and the United States. The results indicated that the Chinese respondents were more concerned about environmental risk, and they perceived the environmental issues to be more…

  12. Development of early treatment strategies for high-risk myeloma precursor disease in the future.

    PubMed

    Landgren, Ola; Rajkumar, S Vincent

    2011-01-01

    Smoldering myeloma (SMM) is a precursor state of multiple myeloma. It is defined by an M-protein concentration ≥3 g/dL and/or ≥10% clonal bone marrow plasma cells, in the absence of end-organ damage. Based on clinical observations, the natural history of SMM varies greatly, from stable, monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS)-like disease to highly progressive disease. Using conventional clinical markers, SMM patients can be stratified into clinical risk groups. However, due to considerable molecular heterogeneity, we currently lack reliable markers to predict prognosis for individual SMM patients. Based on the International Myeloma Working Group 2010 guidelines, patients diagnosed with MGUS and SMM should not be treated outside of clinical trials. Overall, treatment trials for MGUS patients are complicated, as these individuals are relatively healthy and the majority has a low life-time risk of progression, especially when other causes of death are taken into account. In contrast to MGUS, early treatment strategies for SMM are particularly attractive, as the rate of progression to multiple myeloma is substantially higher. Until recently, potent drugs with reasonable toxicity profiles have not been available for the development of early multiple myeloma treatment strategies. This review discusses how the integration of novel biological markers and clinical monitoring of SMM could facilitate the development of early treatment strategies for high-risk SMM patients in the future. PMID:21232660

  13. Flood-risk management strategies for an uncertain future: living with Rhine River floods in The Netherlands?

    PubMed

    Klijn, Frans; van Buuren, Michaël; van Rooij, Sabine A M

    2004-05-01

    Social pressure on alluvial plains and deltas is large, both from an economic point of view and from a nature conservation point of view. Gradually, flood risks increase with economic development, because the expected damage increases, and with higher dikes, because the flooding depth increases. Global change, changing social desires, but also changing views, require a revision of flood-risk management strategies for the long term. These should be based on resilience as opposed to the resistence strategy of heightening dikes. Resilience strategies for flood-risk management imply that the river is allowed to temporarily flood large areas, whereas the flood damage is minimized by adapting land use. Such strategies are thus based on risk management and 'living with floods' instead of on hazard control. For The Netherlands, one of the most densely populated deltas in the world, alternative resilience strategies have been elaborated and assessed for their hydraulic functioning and 'sustainability criteria'.

  14. Experimental Analysis of Thermal Stratification in a Heat Storage Tank Using Stratification Pipe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boloņina, A.; Rochas, C.; Blumberga, D.

    2009-01-01

    The heat storage tank is an important element in any heating system where the heat source is not able to provide heat accordingly to consumer demand (for example solar collector systems, solid fuel boilers etc). Better heat storage efficiency can be achieved by providing good thermal stratification in the heat storage tanks. One of the best methods of increasing the degree of thermal stratification is the stratification pipes. In the Environmental monitoring laboratory of the Institute of Energy Systems and Environment (Riga Technical University, an experimental heat storage system has been developed and used for testing and studying stratification devices under different thermodynamic and hydraulic conditions. The experimental study carried out on the efficiency of the stratification pipe produced by German company SOLVIS Solar Systeme GmbH under different flow parameters, has been analyzed. The main aim of the experimental study was to define optimal heating system operation parameters to achieve good performance of the stratification pipe and a high degree of thermal stratification in the heat storage tank.

  15. Reducing disaster risk in rural Arctic communities through effective communication strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kontar, Y. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Communication is the process of exchanging and relaying vital information that has bearing on the effectiveness of all phases of emergency management: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery, making it one of the most important activities in disasters. Lack of communication between emergency managers, policy makers, and communities at risk may result in an inability to accurately identify disaster risk, and failure to determine priorities during a hazard event. Specific goals of communication change during the four phases of emergency management. Consequently, the communication strategy changes as well. Communication strategy also depends on a variety of attitudinal and motivational characteristics of the population at risk, as well as socioeconomic, cultural, and geographical features of the disaster-prone region. In May 2013, insufficient communication patterns between federal, state, tribal agencies, and affected communities significantly contributed to delays in the flood response and recovery in several rural villages along the Yukon River in central Alaska. This case study finds that long term dialogue is critical for managing disaster risk and increasing disaster resilience in rural Northern communities. It introduces new ideas and highlights best practices in disaster communication.

  16. Simulating Pelletization Strategies to Reduce the Biomass Supply Risk at America’s Biorefineries

    SciTech Connect

    Jacob J. Jacobson; Shane Carnohan; Andrew Ford; Allyson Beall

    2014-07-01

    Demand for cellulosic ethanol and other advanced biofuels has been on the rise, due in part to federal targets enacted in 2005 and extended in 2007. The industry faces major challenges in meeting these worthwhile and ambitious targets. The challenges are especially severe in the logistics of timely feedstock delivery to biorefineries. Logistical difficulties arise from seasonal production that forces the biomass to be stored in uncontrolled field-side environments. In this storage format physical difficulties arise; transportation is hindered by the low bulk density of baled biomass and the unprotected material can decay leading to unpredictable losses. Additionally, uncertain yields and contractual difficulties can exacerbate these challenges making biorefineries a high-risk venture. Investors’ risk could limit business entry and prevent America from reaching the targets. This paper explores pelletizer strategies to convert the lignocellulosic biomass into a denser form more suitable for storage. The densification of biomass would reduce supply risks, and the new system would outperform conventional biorefinery supply systems. Pelletizer strategies exhibit somewhat higher costs, but the reduction in risk is well worth the extra cost if America is to grow the advanced biofuels industry in a sustainable manner.

  17. Management of Agricultural Weather Risks: traditional procedures and new management strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burgaz, F.

    2009-04-01

    Throughout history, agriculture has progressed as an outcome of farmers' efforts to design and apply adaptation strategies aiming to mitigate the impact of adverse meteorological phenomena on their farms' economy. The survival and sustainability of farmholdings, regardless of size or type of production, is directly related to their capacity to withstand the consequences of such phenomena and continue to yield a harvest year after year. While substantial differences can be identified in the intensity and frequency of the damage borne, depending on the country, region and type of production, no farm is exempt from the effects of uncontrollable risks. In this endeavour to mitigate such consequences and successfully manage natural risks, the first protective step must be taken by the farm itself, which must adopt measures that pursue more favourable crop development or a heightened ability to handle risks and their adverse effects. But when the damage inflicted is of an intensity that cannot be accommodated by the farmer, instruments must be deployed that spread or transfer risk to third parties, a process known as risk insurance. Experience shows that of the various such instruments in place, insurance constitutes the most appropriate risk management model and the one that has reached the highest levels of development and acceptance among farmers.

  18. Oman India Pipeline: An operational repair strategy based on a rational assessment of risk

    SciTech Connect

    German, P.

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes the development of a repair strategy for the operational phase of the Oman India Pipeline based upon the probability and consequences of a pipeline failure. Risk analyses and cost benefit analyses performed provide guidance on the level of deepwater repair development effort appropriate for the Oman India Pipeline project and identifies critical areas toward which more intense development effort should be directed. The risk analysis results indicate that the likelihood of a failure of the Oman India Pipeline during its 40-year life is low. Furthermore, the probability of operational failure of the pipeline in deepwater regions is extremely low, the major proportion of operational failure risk being associated with the shallow water regions.

  19. Female genital mutilation/cutting: risk management and strategies for social workers and health care professionals

    PubMed Central

    Costello, Susan

    2015-01-01

    Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is a traditional practice originating in Africa. Its worst forms cause irreparable harm to girls and women and have no medical justification. Based on a literature review of global responses to FGM/C and conversations with Australian women who migrated from FGM/C practicing countries, this paper provides some background on FGM/C and its epidemiology, outlining its prevalence, types, and health risks and complications for women and girls. It discusses risk-prevention strategies, first, for health practitioners in identifying, screening, and supporting women affected by FGM/C and, second, for welfare and social workers and health care professionals to identify, work with, and prevent girls from being cut. Consistent with international trends in addressing the risks of FGM/C, the paper suggests practice responses for coordinated responses between professionals, communities from practicing countries, and governments of different countries. PMID:26719732

  20. Female genital mutilation/cutting: risk management and strategies for social workers and health care professionals.

    PubMed

    Costello, Susan

    2015-01-01

    Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is a traditional practice originating in Africa. Its worst forms cause irreparable harm to girls and women and have no medical justification. Based on a literature review of global responses to FGM/C and conversations with Australian women who migrated from FGM/C practicing countries, this paper provides some background on FGM/C and its epidemiology, outlining its prevalence, types, and health risks and complications for women and girls. It discusses risk-prevention strategies, first, for health practitioners in identifying, screening, and supporting women affected by FGM/C and, second, for welfare and social workers and health care professionals to identify, work with, and prevent girls from being cut. Consistent with international trends in addressing the risks of FGM/C, the paper suggests practice responses for coordinated responses between professionals, communities from practicing countries, and governments of different countries. PMID:26719732

  1. Female genital mutilation/cutting: risk management and strategies for social workers and health care professionals.

    PubMed

    Costello, Susan

    2015-01-01

    Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is a traditional practice originating in Africa. Its worst forms cause irreparable harm to girls and women and have no medical justification. Based on a literature review of global responses to FGM/C and conversations with Australian women who migrated from FGM/C practicing countries, this paper provides some background on FGM/C and its epidemiology, outlining its prevalence, types, and health risks and complications for women and girls. It discusses risk-prevention strategies, first, for health practitioners in identifying, screening, and supporting women affected by FGM/C and, second, for welfare and social workers and health care professionals to identify, work with, and prevent girls from being cut. Consistent with international trends in addressing the risks of FGM/C, the paper suggests practice responses for coordinated responses between professionals, communities from practicing countries, and governments of different countries.

  2. Residual flood-risk: assessing the effectiveness of alternative large-scale mitigation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio

    2016-04-01

    The EU Flood Directive (2007/60/CE) requires institutions and public bodies, in order to formulate robust flood-risk management strategies for large European rivers, to address several fundamental tasks. For instance, they have to address the problem of flood-risk mitigation from a global perspective (i.e., entire middle-lower river reaches) by identifying critical reaches, inundation areas and corresponding overflow volumes. To this aim, we focus on the identification of large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies for the middle-lower reach of the Po river, the longest Italian river and the largest in terms of streamflow. We refer to the so-called residual flood-risk and in particular to its portion referring to the possibility to experience events associated with larger return periods than the reference one (e.g. ~200 years in our case). In particular, being a further levee heightening not technically viable nor economically conceivable for the case study, the study develops and tests the applicability of a quasi-2D hydraulic model for the identification of large-scale flood-risk mitigation strategies relative to a 500-year flood event. In particular, we consider and model in the study different geometrical configurations of the main embankment system for a ~400km reach stretching from Isola S.Antonio to the Po river delta in the Adriatic Sea: overtopping without levee breaching, overtopping and natural levee breaching, overtopping and forced levee breaching. The simulations enable the assessment of the overflowed volumes and water depths on flooded areas. Expected damages are estimated using simplified graphical tools, which we termed "Vulnerability Hypsometric Curves" (HVCs) and report the extent of the area for a given land use category that is located below a certain elevation. The analysis aims at finding the optimal configuration that minimizes the expected damages in the areas prone to flood. The outcomes of our study indicate that coupling a large

  3. [Recent prevention strategies and occupational risk analysis: Control Banding and Sobane].

    PubMed

    Ghittori, S; Ferrari, M; Negri, S; Serranti, P; Sacco, P; Biffi, R; Imbriani, M

    2006-01-01

    Employers are responsible for the prevention of risks and must provide for the safety and health of their workers. They are obliged to apply the general principles of prevention: to avoid, where possible, any risk; to characterize and hence to estimate residual risks; to eliminate risks at the source; to adjust jobs to the needs of workers and not workers to the jobs. When we pass to the practical performance of these shared principles we introduce many problems: problems concerning terminology; problems in estimating the nature of the risks that are faced; coordination problems between the subjects that preside over prevention; problems arising from the different typology of the companies investigated In order to answer these questions the "Industrial Hygienists" have long since created various strategies for the prevention and control of risks. Among different models the methods Control Banding and Sobane-Deparis are undoubtedly the most promising. Control Banding is designed to assist especially Small and Medium Enterprises in complying with the chemical safety regulations, the scheme uses the R phrases that in Europe must be assigned to potentially harmful chemicals by the manufacturer of the chemical. R phrases describe the most important harmful effects of a chemical and have been adopted in many non European countries also. The combination of the hazard classification of the chemical and assessment of the exposure potential will allow understanding of the level of risk thus leading the person carrying out the assessment to an appropriate control method. Occupational hygienists with experience of assessing occupational exposure to chemicals agreed parameters that could be used to give reasonable indications of exposure potential. One of them is quantity being used and three categories--small, medium and large--are defined. The likelihood of the chemical becoming airborne has been addressed by defining solids according to levels of dustiness and liquids

  4. Proactive gait strategies to mitigate risk of obstacle contact are more prevalent with advancing age.

    PubMed

    Muir, B C; Haddad, J M; Heijnen, M J H; Rietdyk, S

    2015-01-01

    The purposes of this study were to determine if healthy older adults adopt strategies to decrease the likelihood of obstacle contact, and to determine how these strategies are modified as a function of advancing age. Three age groups were examined: 20-25 yo (N = 19), 65-79 yo (N = 11), and 80-91 yo (N = 18). Participants stepped over a stationary, visible obstacle on a walkway. Step length and gait speed progressively decreased with advancing age; the shorter step length resulted in closer foot placement to the obstacle and an associated increased risk of obstacle contact. Lead (first limb to cross the obstacle) and trail (second) limb trajectories were examined for behavior that mitigated the risk of contact. (1) Consistent trail foot placement before the obstacle across all ages allowed space and time for the trail foot to clear the obstacle. (2) To avoid lead limb contact due to closer foot placement before and after the obstacle, the lead toe was raised more vertically after toe-off, and then the foot was extended beyond the landing position (termed lead overshoot) and retracted backwards to achieve the shortened step length. Lead overshoot progressively increased with advancing age. (3) Head angle was progressively lower with advancing age, an apparent attempt to gather more visual information during approach. Overall, a series of proactive strategies were adopted to mitigate risk of contact. However, the larger, more abrupt movements associated with a more vertical foot trajectory and lead overshoot may compromise whole body balance, indicating a possible trade-off between risk of contact and stability.

  5. Growth, Politics, and the Stratification of Places

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Logan, John R.

    1978-01-01

    Systematic inequalities among interdependent places are described as a dimension of stratification of persons and organizations. Concludes that territorial differentiation is influenced by political action, that place is often an important basis of collective action, and that places consciously attempt to influence growth in desired directions.…

  6. Low agreement for assessing the risk of postoperative deep venous thrombosis when deciding prophylaxis strategies: a study using clinical vignettes

    PubMed Central

    O'Flaherty, Martin; Lerum, Kaja; Martin, Paula; Grassi, Daniel

    2002-01-01

    Background Several clinical practice guidelines (CPG) on antithrombotic prophylaxis in surgical patients help to decide about the prophylaxis strategy based on the patient risk of deep venous thrombosis (DVT). However, the physician risk estimates of DVT could have little inter-observer reproducibility, which could lead to different individual prophylaxis practices. Methods Physicians were asked to evaluate DVT risk in eight clinical vignettes, describing actual patients cared for in our hospital. The vignettes included all possible levels of DVT risk. Results The degree of prophylaxis strategies accuracy was 63% (95% CI 523–75%). Overall agreement was 0.32 (z = 7.61, p < 0.001) and for each level of risk kappa was 0.38 (z = 6.50, p < 0.001); 0.1 (z = 1.65, p < 0.049) and 0.5 (z = 8.45, p < 0.001) for small, moderate and high risk group respectively Conclusions Our results showed that there is poor agreement when physicians have to evaluate the risk for postoperative DVT, and in the cases of low and moderate risks of DVT there is the smallest agreement. In addition, the data also showed that the overall accuracy of DVT prophylaxis strategy was only moderate and the risk evaluation did not correlate to the selection of the strategy. The issue of inter-observers variability should be taken into account when CPG performance are analysed, especially when considering the risk-evaluation to choose the appropriate actions. PMID:12184817

  7. Pleiotropic effects of type 2 diabetes management strategies on renal risk factors.

    PubMed

    Muskiet, Marcel H A; Tonneijck, Lennart; Smits, Mark M; Kramer, Mark H H; Heerspink, Hiddo J Lambers; van Raalte, Daniël H

    2015-05-01

    In parallel with the type 2 diabetes pandemic, diabetic kidney disease has become the leading cause of end-stage renal disease worldwide, and is associated with high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. As established in landmark randomised trials and recommended in clinical guidelines, prevention and treatment of diabetic kidney disease focuses on control of the two main renal risk factors, hyperglycaemia and systemic hypertension. Treatment of systemic hypertension with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-receptor blockers is advocated because these drugs seem to exert specific renoprotective effects beyond blood pressure lowering. Emerging evidence shows that obesity, glomerular hyperfiltration, albuminuria, and dyslipidaemia might also adversely affect the kidney in diabetes. Control of these risk factors could have additional benefits on renal outcome in patients with type 2 diabetes. However, despite multifactorial treatment approaches, residual risk for the development and progression of diabetic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes remains, and novel strategies or therapies to treat the disease are urgently needed. Several drugs used in the treatment of type 2 diabetes are associated with pleiotropic effects that could favourably or unfavourably change patients' renal risk profile. We review the risk factors and treatment of diabetic kidney disease, and describe the pleiotropic effects of widely used drugs in type 2 diabetes management on renal outcomes, with special emphasis on antihyperglycaemic drugs.

  8. Fatigue risk management by volunteer fire-fighters: Use of informal strategies to augment formal policy.

    PubMed

    Dawson, Drew; Mayger, Katherine; Thomas, Matthew J W; Thompson, Kirrilly

    2015-11-01

    An increasing number and intensity of catastrophic fire events in Australia has led to increasing demands on a mainly volunteer fire-fighting workforce. Despite the increasing likelihood of fatigue in the emergency services environment, there is not yet a systematic, unified approach to fatigue management in fire agencies across Australia. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to identify informal strategies used in volunteer fire-fighting and examine how these strategies are transmitted across the workforce. Thirty experienced Australian volunteer fire-fighters were interviewed in August 2010. The study identified informal fatigue-management behaviours at the individual, team and brigade level that have evolved in fire-fighting environments and are regularly implemented. However, their purpose was not explicitly recognized as such. This apparent paradox - that fatigue proofing behaviours exist but that they are not openly understood as such - may well resolve a potential conflict between a culture of indefatigability in the emergency services sector and the frequent need to operate safely while fatigued. However, formal controls require fire-fighters and their organisations to acknowledge and accept their vulnerability. This suggests two important areas in which to improve formal fatigue risk management in the emergency services sector: (1) identifying and formalising tacit or informal fatigue coping strategies as legitimate elements of the fatigue risk management system; and (2) developing culturally appropriate techniques for systematically communicating fatigue levels to self and others. PMID:26322733

  9. Fatigue risk management by volunteer fire-fighters: Use of informal strategies to augment formal policy.

    PubMed

    Dawson, Drew; Mayger, Katherine; Thomas, Matthew J W; Thompson, Kirrilly

    2015-11-01

    An increasing number and intensity of catastrophic fire events in Australia has led to increasing demands on a mainly volunteer fire-fighting workforce. Despite the increasing likelihood of fatigue in the emergency services environment, there is not yet a systematic, unified approach to fatigue management in fire agencies across Australia. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to identify informal strategies used in volunteer fire-fighting and examine how these strategies are transmitted across the workforce. Thirty experienced Australian volunteer fire-fighters were interviewed in August 2010. The study identified informal fatigue-management behaviours at the individual, team and brigade level that have evolved in fire-fighting environments and are regularly implemented. However, their purpose was not explicitly recognized as such. This apparent paradox - that fatigue proofing behaviours exist but that they are not openly understood as such - may well resolve a potential conflict between a culture of indefatigability in the emergency services sector and the frequent need to operate safely while fatigued. However, formal controls require fire-fighters and their organisations to acknowledge and accept their vulnerability. This suggests two important areas in which to improve formal fatigue risk management in the emergency services sector: (1) identifying and formalising tacit or informal fatigue coping strategies as legitimate elements of the fatigue risk management system; and (2) developing culturally appropriate techniques for systematically communicating fatigue levels to self and others.

  10. Nursing Strategies to Support Family Members of ICU Patients at High Risk of Dying

    PubMed Central

    Adams, Judith A.; Anderson, Ruth A.; Docherty, Sharron L.; Tulsky, James A.; Steinhauser, Karen E.; Bailey, Donald E.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: To explore how family members of ICU patients at high risk of dying respond to nursing communication strategies. Background: Family members of ICU patients may face difficult decisions. Nurses are in a position to provide support. Evidence of specific strategies that nurses use to support decision-making and how family members respond to these strategies is lacking. Methods: This is a prospective, qualitative descriptive study involving the family members of ICU patients identified as being at high risk of dying. Results: Family members described five nursing approaches: Demonstrating concern, building rapport, demonstrating professionalism, providing factual information, and supporting decision-making. This study provides evidence that when using these approaches, nurses helped family members to cope; to have hope, confidence, and trust; to prepare for and accept impending death; and to make decisions. Conclusion: Knowledge lays a foundation for interventions targeting the areas important to family members and most likely to improve their ability to make decisions and their well-being. PMID:24655938

  11. Strategies of reducing the carcinogenic risk of cytostatic agents on the basis of bioassay evaluation.

    PubMed

    Berger, M R

    1991-01-01

    This article described strategies that can be used to reduce the carcinogenic risk of cytostatic chemotherapy and summarizes our recent experimental results. Reduction of neoplasms caused by the carcinogenic potency inherent in cytostatic agents can be obtained. (A) by chemical modifications such as: (1) exchanging a chlorine atom in N, N'-bis-(2-chloroethyl)-N-nitrosourea (BCNU) in the chloroethyl group at N'-position for a hydroxyl group to form the less carcinogenic analog N-(2-chloroethyl)-N'-(2-hydroxyethyl)-N-nitrosourea (HECNU); (2) linking chlorambucil to the steroid prednisolone to obtain a conjugate (prednimustine) with distinctly lower carcinogenic potential than chlorambucil; (3) progressive ring halogenation of phenyl-triazenes to generate agents with decreased long-term toxic risk; (B) by replacing cyclophosphamide within the carcinogenic drug combination of cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and 5-fluorouracil (CMF) by vincristine to form the combination VMF which has no detectable carcinogenic potential; (C) by coadministration of cyclophosphamide and mesna to achieve a dose-related reduction of cyclophosphamide-induced urinary bladder carcinomas; (D) by administration of dinaline, a compound which reduces the spontaneous incidence of malignant tumors in rats. These examples demonstrate that the carcinogenic risk of single agents and drug combinations used for antineoplastic chemotherapy has successfully been reduced, as assessed in long-term bioassays. Such strategies should be considered in the treatment of patients with long life expectancy following cytotoxic chemotherapy.

  12. Accuracy of heritability estimations in presence of hidden population stratification

    PubMed Central

    Dandine-Roulland, Claire; Bellenguez, Céline; Debette, Stéphanie; Amouyel, Philippe; Génin, Emmanuelle; Perdry, Hervé

    2016-01-01

    The heritability of a trait is the proportion of its variance explained by genetic factors; it has historically been estimated using familial data. However, new methods have appeared for estimating heritabilities using genomewide data from unrelated individuals. A drawback of this strategy is that population stratification can bias the estimates. Indeed, an environmental factor associated with the phenotype may differ among population subgroups. This factor being associated both with the phenotype and the genetic variation in the population would be a confounder. A common solution consists in adjusting on the first Principal Components (PCs) of the genomic data. We study this procedure on simulated data and on 6000 individuals from the Three-City Study. We analyse the geographical coordinates of the birth cities, which are not genetically determined, but the heritability of which should be overestimated due to population stratification. We also analyse various anthropometric traits. The procedure fails to correct the bias in geographical coordinates heritability estimates. The heritability estimates of the anthropometric traits are affected by the inclusion of the first PC, but not by the following PCs, contrarily to geographical coordinates. We recommend to be cautious with heritability estimates obtained from a large population. PMID:27220488

  13. Using Estimated Risk to Develop Stimulation Strategies for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douglas, John; Aochi, Hideo

    2014-08-01

    Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are an attractive source of low-carbon electricity and heating. Consequently, a number of tests of this technology have been made during the past couple of decades, and various projects are being planned or under development. EGS work by the injection of fluid into deep boreholes to increase permeability and hence allow the circulation and heating of fluid through a geothermal reservoir. Permeability is irreversibly increased by the generation of microseismicity through the shearing of pre-existing fractures or fault segments. One aspect of this technology that can cause public concern and consequently could limit the widespread adoption of EGS within populated areas is the risk of generating earthquakes that are sufficiently large to be felt (or even to cause building damage). Therefore, there is a need to balance stimulation and exploitation of the geothermal reservoir through fluid injection against the pressing requirement to keep the earthquake risk below an acceptable level. Current strategies to balance these potentially conflicting requirements rely on a traffic light system based on the observed magnitudes of the triggered earthquakes and the measured peak ground velocities from these events. In this article we propose an alternative system that uses the actual risk of generating felt (or damaging) earthquake ground motions at a site of interest (e.g. a nearby town) to control the injection rate. This risk is computed by combining characteristics of the observed seismicity of the previous 6 h with a (potentially site-specific) ground motion prediction equation to obtain a real-time seismic hazard curve; this is then convolved with the derivative of a (potentially site-specific) fragility curve. Based on the relation between computed risk and pre-defined acceptable risk thresholds, the injection is increased if the risk is below the amber level, decreased if the risk is between the amber and red levels, or stopped

  14. [Surgical therapeutic strategy in vital risk polytrauma with multiple organ injuries, case report].

    PubMed

    Munteanu, Iulia; Stefan, S; Isloi, Anca; Coca, I C; Baroi, Genoveva; Radu, L; Lăpuşneanu, A; Tamaş, Camelia

    2008-01-01

    The medical interest for trauma pathology is incresing, due to the gravity of the given injuries. The surgical therapeutic strategy used is directly related to the localization and to the type of the trauma. The supplementary lesions and their vital risk also matter. The multidisciplinary team approach is the key to resolve this type of lesions with a good outcome. We recently observed an increasing tendency toward the rise of number and variety of patients with trauma, due to the great diversity of the etiopathogenic agents. The most important factor, during the assessment of a politraumatised patient is to diagnose correctly the functional deficits of vital organs and establish the vital prognosis. It is necessary to adopt the best and fast therapeutic strategy in order to obtain rapid life-saving decisions. PMID:20209777

  15. Effect of sample stratification on dairy GWAS results

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Background Artificial insemination and genetic selection are major factors contributing to population stratification in dairy cattle. In this study, we analyzed the effect of sample stratification and the effect of stratification correction on results of a dairy genome-wide association study (GWAS)....

  16. A Comparative Review of Stratification Texts and Readers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peoples, Clayton D.

    2012-01-01

    Social stratification is a core substantive area within sociology. There are a number of textbooks and readers available on the market that deal with this central topic. In this article, I conduct a comparative review of (a) four stratification textbooks and (b) four stratification readers. (Contains 2 tables.)

  17. Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: Dyslipidemia, Risk for Cardiovascular Complications, and Treatment Strategy

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Qing-Qing; Lu, Lun-Gen

    2015-01-01

    Studies have shown that nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is strongly associated with several metabolic disorders and diseases, such as obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia. In NAFLD, dyslipidemia is manifested as increased serum triglyceride and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and decreased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, all of which are key risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). CVD is a leading cause of mortality in NAFLD patients. Thus, implementation of an aggressive therapeutic strategy for dyslipidemia with hypolipidemic agents may mitigate the risk for CVD among NAFLD patients. Here, we provide a current review of literature regarding NAFLD, with particular emphasis on dyslipidemia and available treatment options. PMID:26357637

  18. [New strategies for assessing the risk of sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy].

    PubMed

    Jaworski, Krzysztof; Możeńska, Olga; Kosior, Dariusz A

    2016-07-01

    Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is characterized by a primarily increased ventricular wall thickness, usually caused by the mutations in genes encoding sarcomere proteins. Thanks to the growing awareness in the medical community as well as advances in diagnostic techniques HCM can be diagnosed at earlier stages than ever before. However, in some cases the first symptom of this disease is a sudden cardiac death (SCD) and diagnosis remains unknown until post-mortem examination. Implantation of a cardioverterdefibrillator (ICD) provides the most effective method of SCD prevention. Nevertheless, due to a number of risks associated with surgery as well as the possession of such devices, predictive factors of serious ventricular arrhythmia in individual patients have been sought for many years. The aim of this review is to present the current strategies of risk assessment and prevention of SCD in patients with HCM. PMID:27590646

  19. [New strategies for assessing the risk of sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy].

    PubMed

    Jaworski, Krzysztof; Możeńska, Olga; Kosior, Dariusz A

    2016-08-01

    Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is characterized by a primarily increased ventricular wall thickness, usually caused by the mutations in genes encoding sarcomere proteins. Thanks to the growing awareness in the medical community as well as advances in diagnostic techniques HCM can be diagnosed at earlier stages than ever before. However, in some cases the first symptom of this disease is a sudden cardiac death (SCD) and diagnosis remains unknown until post-mortem examination. Implantation of a cardioverterdefibrillator (ICD) provides the most effective method of SCD prevention. Nevertheless, due to a number of risks associated with surgery as well as the possession of such devices, predictive factors of serious ventricular arrhythmia in individual patients have been sought for many years. The aim of this review is to present the current strategies of risk assessment and prevention of SCD in patients with HCM. PMID:27591441

  20. Urban geochemistry: research strategies to assist risk assessment and remediation of brownfield sites in urban areas.

    PubMed

    Thornton, I; Farago, M E; Thums, C R; Parrish, R R; McGill, R A R; Breward, N; Fortey, N J; Simpson, P; Young, S D; Tye, A M; Crout, N M J; Hough, R L; Watt, J

    2008-12-01

    Urban geochemical maps of Wolverhampton and Nottingham, based on multielement analysis of surface soils, have shown distribution patterns of "total" metals concentrations relating to past and present industrial and domestic land use and transport systems. Several methods have been used to estimate the solubility and potential bioavailability of metals, their mineral forms and potential risks to urban population groups. These include sequential chemical extraction, soil pore water extraction and analysis, mineralogical analysis by scanning electron microscopy, source apportionment by lead isotope analysis and the development of models to predict metal uptake by homegrown vegetables to provide an estimate of risk from metal consumption and exposure. The results from these research strategies have been integrated with a geographical information system (GIS) to provide data for future land-use planning. PMID:18584292

  1. Risk stratification and stroke prevention therapy care gaps in Canadian atrial fibrillation patients (from the Co-ordinated National Network to Engage Physicians in the Care and Treatment of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation chart audit).

    PubMed

    Patel, Ashish D; Tan, Mary K; Angaran, Paul; Bell, Alan D; Berall, Murray; Bucci, Claudia; Demchuk, Andrew M; Essebag, Vidal; Goldin, Lianne; Green, Martin S; Gregoire, Jean C; Gross, Peter L; Heilbron, Brett; Lin, Peter J; Ramanathan, Krishnan; Skanes, Allan; Wheeler, Bruce H; Goodman, Shaun G

    2015-03-01

    The objectives of this national chart audit (January to June 2013) of 6,346 patients with atrial fibrillation (AF; ≥18 years without a significant heart valve disorder) from 647 primary care physicians were to (1) describe the frequency of stroke and bleed risk assessments in patients with nonvalvular AF by primary care physicians, including the accuracy of these assessments relative to established predictive indexes; (2) outline contemporary methods of anticoagulation used; and (3) report the time in the therapeutic range among patients prescribed warfarin. An annual stroke risk assessment was not undertaken in 15% and estimated without a formal risk tool in 33%; agreement with CHADS2 score estimation was seen in 87% of patients. Major bleeding risk assessment was not undertaken in 25% and estimated without a formal risk tool in 47%; agreement with HAS-BLED score estimation was observed in 64% with physician overestimation in 26% of patients. Antithrombotic therapy included warfarin (58%), dabigatran (22%), rivaroxaban (14%), and apixaban (<1%). Among warfarin-treated patients, the median international normalized ratio was 2.4 and time in therapeutic range (TTR) was 73%; however, the TTR was <50% in 845 (25%), 50% to 69% in 674 (20%), and ≥70% in 1,827 (55%) patients. In conclusion, we describe a contemporary real-world elderly population with AF at important risk for stroke. There is apparent overestimation of bleeding risk in many patients. Warfarin was the dominant stroke prevention treatment; however, the suggested TTR target was achieved in only 55% of these patients. PMID:25727083

  2. Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we se