Science.gov

Sample records for risk-based decision tool

  1. Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

    SciTech Connect

    Bendure, A.O.

    1995-03-01

    Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

  2. Interactive Decision-Support Tool for Risk-Based Radiation Therapy Plan Comparison for Hodgkin Lymphoma

    SciTech Connect

    Brodin, N. Patrik; Maraldo, Maja V.; Aznar, Marianne C.; Vogelius, Ivan R.; Petersen, Peter M.; Bentzen, Søren M.; Specht, Lena

    2014-02-01

    Purpose: To present a novel tool that allows quantitative estimation and visualization of the risk of various relevant normal tissue endpoints to aid in treatment plan comparison and clinical decision making in radiation therapy (RT) planning for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). Methods and Materials: A decision-support tool for risk-based, individualized treatment plan comparison is presented. The tool displays dose–response relationships, derived from published clinical data, for a number of relevant side effects and thereby provides direct visualization of the trade-off between these endpoints. The Quantitative Analyses of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic reports were applied, complemented with newer data where available. A “relevance score” was assigned to each data source, reflecting how relevant the input data are to current RT for HL. Results: The tool is applied to visualize the local steepness of dose–response curves to drive the reoptimization of a volumetric modulated arc therapy treatment plan for an HL patient with head-and-neck involvement. We also use this decision-support tool to visualize and quantitatively evaluate the trade-off between a 3-dimensional conformal RT plan and a volumetric modulated arc therapy plan for a patient with mediastinal HL. Conclusion: This multiple-endpoint decision-support tool provides quantitative risk estimates to supplement the clinical judgment of the radiation oncologist when comparing different RT options.

  3. A risk-based decision tool for the management of organic waste in agriculture and farming activities (FARMERS).

    PubMed

    Río, Miguel; Franco-Uría, Amaya; Abad, Emilio; Roca, Enrique

    2011-01-30

    Currently, specific management guidelines must be implemented for guaranteeing the safe reuse of organic waste in agriculture. With that aim, this work was focused on the development of a decision support tool for a safe and sustainable management of cattle manure as fertiliser in pastureland, to control and limit metal accumulation in soil and to reduce metal biotransfer from soil to other compartments. The system was developed on the basis of an environmental risk assessment multi-compartmental model. In contrast to other management tools, a long-term dynamic modelling approach was selected considering the persistence of metals in the environment. A detailed description of the underlying flow equations which accounts for distribution, human exposure and risk characterisation of metals in the assessed scenario was presented, as well as model parameterization. The tool was implemented in Visual C++ and is structured on a data base, where all required data is stored, the risk assessment model and a GIS module for the visualization of the scenario characteristics and the results obtained (risk indexes). The decision support system allows choosing among three estimation options, depending on the needs of the user, which provide information to both farmers and policy makers. The first option is useful for evaluating the adequacy of the current management practices of the different farms, and the remaining ones provides information on the measures that can be taken to carry out a fertilising plan without exceeding risk to human health. Among other results, maximum values of application rates of manure, maximum permissible metal content of manure and maximum application times in a particular scenario can be estimated by this system. To illustrate tool application, a real case study with data corresponding to different farms of a milk production cooperative was presented.

  4. Decision making in flood risk based storm sewer network design.

    PubMed

    Sun, S A; Djordjević, S; Khu, S T

    2011-01-01

    It is widely recognised that flood risk needs to be taken into account when designing a storm sewer network. Flood risk is generally a combination of flood consequences and flood probabilities. This paper aims to explore the decision making in flood risk based storm sewer network design. A multiobjective optimization is proposed to find the Pareto front of optimal designs in terms of low construction cost and low flood risk. The decision making process then follows this multi-objective optimization to select a best design from the Pareto front. The traditional way of designing a storm sewer system based on a predefined design storm is used as one of the decision making criteria. Additionally, three commonly used risk based criteria, i.e., the expected flood risk based criterion, the Hurwicz criterion and the stochastic dominance based criterion, are investigated and applied in this paper. Different decisions are made according to different criteria as a result of different concerns represented by the criteria. The proposed procedure is applied to a simple storm sewer network design to demonstrate its effectiveness and the different criteria are compared.

  5. Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

    PubMed

    Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

    2009-03-01

    This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

  6. Holistic risk-based environmental decision making: a Native perspective.

    PubMed Central

    Arquette, Mary; Cole, Maxine; Cook, Katsi; LaFrance, Brenda; Peters, Margaret; Ransom, James; Sargent, Elvera; Smoke, Vivian; Stairs, Arlene

    2002-01-01

    Native American Nations have become increasingly concerned about the impacts of toxic substances. Although risk assessment and risk management processes have been used by government agencies to help estimate and manage risks associated with exposure to toxicants, these tools have many inadequacies and as a result have not served Native people well. In addition, resources have not always been adequate to address the concerns of Native Nations, and involvement of Native decision makers on a government-to-government basis in discussions regarding risk has only recently become common. Finally, because the definitions of health used by Native people are strikingly different from that of risk assessors, there is also a need to expand current definitions and incorporate traditional knowledge into decision making. Examples are discussed from the First Environment Restoration Initiative, a project that is working to address toxicant issues facing the Mohawk territory of Akwesasne. This project is developing a community-defined model in which health is protected at the same time that traditional cultural practices, which have long been the key to individual and community health, are maintained and restored. PMID:11929736

  7. SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

  8. Introduction to Decision Support Systems for Risk Based Management of Contaminated Sites

    EPA Science Inventory

    A book on Decision Support Systems for Risk-based Management of contaminated sites is appealing for two reasons. First, it addresses the problem of contaminated sites, which has worldwide importance. Second, it presents Decision Support Systems (DSSs), which are powerful comput...

  9. Partially observable Markov decision processes for risk-based screening

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mrozack, Alex; Liao, Xuejun; Skatter, Sondre; Carin, Lawrence

    2016-05-01

    A long-term goal for checked baggage screening in airports has been to include passenger information, or at least a predetermined passenger risk level, in the screening process. One method for including that information could be treating the checked baggage screening process as a system-of-systems. This would allow for an optimized policy builder, such as one trained using the methodology of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP), to navigate the different sensors available for screening. In this paper we describe the necessary steps to tailor a POMDP for baggage screening, as well as results of simulations for specific screening scenarios.

  10. Probabilistic Risk Based Decision Support for Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Facilities in Sensitive Ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Greg Thoma; John Veil; Fred Limp; Jackson Cothren; Bruce Gorham; Malcolm Williamson; Peter Smith; Bob Sullivan

    2009-05-31

    This report describes work performed during the initial period of the project 'Probabilistic Risk Based Decision Support for Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Facilities in Sensitive Ecosystems.' The specific region that is within the scope of this study is the Fayetteville Shale Play. This is an unconventional, tight formation, natural gas play that currently has approximately 1.5 million acres under lease, primarily to Southwestern Energy Incorporated and Chesapeake Energy Incorporated. The currently active play encompasses a region from approximately Fort Smith, AR east to Little Rock, AR approximately 50 miles wide (from North to South). The initial estimates for this field put it almost on par with the Barnett Shale play in Texas. It is anticipated that thousands of wells will be drilled during the next several years; this will entail installation of massive support infrastructure of roads and pipelines, as well as drilling fluid disposal pits and infrastructure to handle millions of gallons of fracturing fluids. This project focuses on gas production in Arkansas as the test bed for application of proactive risk management decision support system for natural gas exploration and production. The activities covered in this report include meetings with representative stakeholders, development of initial content and design for an educational web site, and development and preliminary testing of an interactive mapping utility designed to provide users with information that will allow avoidance of sensitive areas during the development of the Fayetteville Shale Play. These tools have been presented to both regulatory and industrial stakeholder groups, and their feedback has been incorporated into the project.

  11. EVALUATING ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS.

    SciTech Connect

    SULLIVAN, T.

    2004-10-01

    Effective contaminated land management requires a number of decisions addressing a suite of technical, economic, and social concerns. These concerns include human health risks, ecological risks, economic costs, technical feasibility of proposed remedial actions, and the value society places on clean-up and re-use of formerly contaminated lands. Decision making, in the face of uncertainty and multiple and often conflicting objectives, is a vital and challenging role in environmental management that affects a significant economic activity. Although each environmental remediation problem is unique and requires a site-specific analysis, many of the key decisions are similar in structure. This has led many to attempt to develop standard approaches. As part of the standardization process, attempts have been made to codify specialist expertise into decision support tools. This activity is intended to facilitate reproducible and transparent decision making. The process of codifying procedures has also been found to be a useful activity for establishing and rationalizing management processes. This study will have two primary objectives. The first is to develop taxonomy for Decision Support Tools (DST) to provide a framework for understanding the different tools and what they are designed to address in the context of environmental remediation problems. The taxonomy will have a series of subject areas for the DST. From these subjects, a few key areas will be selected for further study and software in these areas will be identified. The second objective, will be to review the existing DST in the selected areas and develop a screening matrix for each software product.

  12. Decision Support Methods and Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, Lawrence L.; Alexandrov, Natalia M.; Brown, Sherilyn A.; Cerro, Jeffrey A.; Gumbert, Clyde r.; Sorokach, Michael R.; Burg, Cecile M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper is one of a set of papers, developed simultaneously and presented within a single conference session, that are intended to highlight systems analysis and design capabilities within the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC). This paper focuses on the specific capabilities of uncertainty/risk analysis, quantification, propagation, decomposition, and management, robust/reliability design methods, and extensions of these capabilities into decision analysis methods within SACD. These disciplines are discussed together herein under the name of Decision Support Methods and Tools. Several examples are discussed which highlight the application of these methods within current or recent aerospace research at the NASA LaRC. Where applicable, commercially available, or government developed software tools are also discussed

  13. Risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option.

    PubMed

    Manap, Norpadzlihatun; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

    2014-10-15

    The aim of this study was to develop a risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option. Descriptions using case studies of the newly integrated, holistic and staged framework were followed. The first stage utilized the historical dredging monitoring data and the contamination level in media data into Ecological Risk Assessment phases, which have been altered for benefits in cost, time and simplicity. How Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used to analyze and prioritize dredging areas based on environmental, socio-economic and managerial criteria was described for the next stage. The results from MCDA will be integrated into Ecological Risk Assessment to characterize the degree of contamination in the prioritized areas. The last stage was later described using these findings and analyzed using MCDA, in order to identify the best sediment dredging option, accounting for the economic, environmental and technical aspects of dredging, which is beneficial for dredging and sediment management industries.

  14. Rational risk-based decision support for drinking water well managers by optimized monitoring designs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enzenhöfer, R.; Geiges, A.; Nowak, W.

    2011-12-01

    Advection-based well-head protection zones are commonly used to manage the contamination risk of drinking water wells. Considering the insufficient knowledge about hazards and transport properties within the catchment, current Water Safety Plans recommend that catchment managers and stakeholders know, control and monitor all possible hazards within the catchments and perform rational risk-based decisions. Our goal is to supply catchment managers with the required probabilistic risk information, and to generate tools that allow for optimal and rational allocation of resources between improved monitoring versus extended safety margins and risk mitigation measures. To support risk managers with the indispensable information, we address the epistemic uncertainty of advective-dispersive solute transport and well vulnerability (Enzenhoefer et al., 2011) within a stochastic simulation framework. Our framework can separate between uncertainty of contaminant location and actual dilution of peak concentrations by resolving heterogeneity with high-resolution Monte-Carlo simulation. To keep computational costs low, we solve the reverse temporal moment transport equation. Only in post-processing, we recover the time-dependent solute breakthrough curves and the deduced well vulnerability criteria from temporal moments by non-linear optimization. Our first step towards optimal risk management is optimal positioning of sampling locations and optimal choice of data types to reduce best the epistemic prediction uncertainty for well-head delineation, using the cross-bred Likelihood Uncertainty Estimator (CLUE, Leube et al., 2011) for optimal sampling design. Better monitoring leads to more reliable and realistic protection zones and thus helps catchment managers to better justify smaller, yet conservative safety margins. In order to allow an optimal choice in sampling strategies, we compare the trade-off in monitoring versus the delineation costs by accounting for ill

  15. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety.

    PubMed

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P

    2015-08-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing interventions. The objective of this review is to address key considerations and limitations of current methods as they apply to blood safety. Because a voluntary blood supply is an example of a public good, analyses should be conducted from the societal perspective when possible. Two primary study designs are recommended for most blood safety intervention assessments: budget impact analysis (BIA), which measures the cost to implement an intervention both to the blood operator but also in a broader context, and cost-utility analysis (CUA), which measures the ratio between costs and health gain achieved, in terms of reduced morbidity and mortality, by use of an intervention. These analyses often have important limitations because data that reflect specific aspects, for example, blood recipient population characteristics or complication rates, are not available. Sensitivity analyses play an important role. The impact of various uncertain factors can be studied conjointly in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The use of BIA and CUA together provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits from implementing (or not) specific interventions. RBDM is multifaceted and impacts a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Gathering and analyzing health economic evidence as part of the RBDM process enhances the quality, completeness, and transparency of decision-making.

  16. Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

    2003-01-01

    A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

  17. Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

    2004-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

  18. "People Can Go against the Government": Risk-Based Decision Making and High School Students' Concepts of Society

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radakovic, Nenad

    2015-01-01

    Research in mathematics education stresses the importance of content knowledge in solving authentic tasks in statistics and in risk-based decision making. Existing research supports the claim that students rely on content knowledge and context expertise to make sense of data. In this article, however, I present evidence that the relationship…

  19. Risk-Based Decision Process for Accelerated Closure of a Nuclear Weapons Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Butler, L.; Norland, R. L.; DiSalvo, R.; Anderson, M.

    2003-02-25

    Nearly 40 years of nuclear weapons production at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS or Site) resulted in contamination of soil and underground systems and structures with hazardous substances, including plutonium, uranium and hazardous waste constituents. The Site was placed on the National Priority List in 1989. There are more than 370 Individual Hazardous Substance Sites (IHSSs) at RFETS. Accelerated cleanup and closure of RFETS is being achieved through implementation and refinement of a regulatory framework that fosters programmatic and technical innovations: (1) extensive use of ''accelerated actions'' to remediate IHSSs, (2) development of a risk-based screening process that triggers and helps define the scope of accelerated actions consistent with the final remedial action objectives for the Site, (3) use of field instrumentation for real time data collection, (4) a data management system that renders near real time field data assessment, and (5) a regulatory agency consultative process to facilitate timely decisions. This paper presents the process and interim results for these aspects of the accelerated closure program applied to Environmental Restoration activities at the Site.

  20. A Multiple Objective Decision Support Tool (MODS)

    SciTech Connect

    2003-12-14

    The Multiple Objective Decision Support (MODS) tool is an automated tool used to assist decision makers and policy analysts with multiple-objective decision problems. The classes of problems that this decision support tool addresses have both multiple objectives and multiple stakeholders. Decision problems, which have multiple objectives that in general cannot be maximized simultaneously, and multiple stakeholders, who have different perspectives about the relative importance of the objectives, require analytic approaches and tools that can provide flexible support to decision makers. This tool provides capabilities for the management, analysis, and graphical display for these types of decision problems drawn from diverse problem domains. The MODS tool is a unique integration of analysis algorithms, an information database, and a graphical user interface. This collection of algorithms, the combination of an information database with the analysis into a single tool, and the graphical user interface provides a technically advanced tool to decision makers and policy analysts. There are two main issues when addressing problems of this type: what set of attributes should be used to characterize the tokens in the domain of interest, and how should the values of these attributes and their weights be determined and combined to provide a relative ordering to the tokens. This tool addresses both of these issues. This decision support tool provides a flexible way to derive and use a chosen set of attributes. For example, the tool could be used to first perform a paired comparison of a large set of attributes and from this evaluation select those attributes that have the highest weights. The flexibility of the tool allows experimentation with various attribute sets and this capability, along with domain expertise, addresses the first issue. To address the second issue, several algorithms have been implemented. For example, two algorithms that have been implemented are the

  1. A risk-based decision support framework for selection of appropriate safety measure system for underground coal mines.

    PubMed

    Samantra, Chitrasen; Datta, Saurav; Mahapatra, Siba Sankar

    2017-03-01

    In the context of underground coal mining industry, the increased economic issues regarding implementation of additional safety measure systems, along with growing public awareness to ensure high level of workers safety, have put great pressure on the managers towards finding the best solution to ensure safe as well as economically viable alternative selection. Risk-based decision support system plays an important role in finding such solutions amongst candidate alternatives with respect to multiple decision criteria. Therefore, in this paper, a unified risk-based decision-making methodology has been proposed for selecting an appropriate safety measure system in relation to an underground coal mining industry with respect to multiple risk criteria such as financial risk, operating risk, and maintenance risk. The proposed methodology uses interval-valued fuzzy set theory for modelling vagueness and subjectivity in the estimates of fuzzy risk ratings for making appropriate decision. The methodology is based on the aggregative fuzzy risk analysis and multi-criteria decision making. The selection decisions are made within the context of understanding the total integrated risk that is likely to incur while adapting the particular safety system alternative. Effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated through a real-time case study. The result in the context of final priority ranking is seemed fairly consistent.

  2. GET SMARTE: DECISION TOOLS TO REVITALIZE BROWNFIELDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    SMARTe (Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools-electronic) is an open-source, web-based, decision-support system for developing and evaluating future use scenarios for potentially contaminated sites (i.e., brownfields). It contains resources and analysis tools...

  3. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    PubMed

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health.

  4. Decision generation tools and Bayesian inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jannson, Tomasz; Wang, Wenjian; Forrester, Thomas; Kostrzewski, Andrew; Veeris, Christian; Nielsen, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Digital Decision Generation (DDG) tools are important software sub-systems of Command and Control (C2) systems and technologies. In this paper, we present a special type of DDGs based on Bayesian Inference, related to adverse (hostile) networks, including such important applications as terrorism-related networks and organized crime ones.

  5. An evaluation of the role of risk-based decision-making in a former manufactured gas plant site remediation.

    PubMed

    Vyas, Vikram M; Gochfeld, Michael G; Georgopoulos, Panos G; Lioy, Paul J; Sussman, Nancy R

    2006-02-01

    Environmental remediation decisions are driven by the need to minimize human health and ecological risks posed by environmental releases. The Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund Sites enunciates the principles of exposure and risk assessment that are to be used for reaching remediation decisions for sites under Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). Experience with remediation management under CERCLA has led to recognition of some crucial infirmities in the processes for managing remediation: cleanup management policies are ad hoc in character, mandates and practices are strongly conservative, and contaminant risk management occurs in an artificially narrow context. The purpose of this case study is to show how a policy of risk-based decision-making was used to avoid customary pitfalls in site remediation. This case study describes the risk-based decision-making process in a remedial action program at a former manufactured gas plant site that successfully achieved timely and effective cleanup. The remediation process operated outside the confines of the CERCLA process under an administrative consent order between the utility and the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. A residential use end state was negotiated as part of this agreement. The attendant uncertainties, complications, and unexpected contingencies were overcome by using the likely exposures associated with the desired end state to structure all of the remediation management decisions and by collecting site-specific information from the very outset to obtain a detailed and realistic characterization of human health risks that needed to be mitigated. The lessons from this case study are generalizable to more complicated remediation cases, when supported by correspondingly sophisticated technical approaches.

  6. Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

  7. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-08-01

    Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecast uncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty in transforming the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

  8. Risk-based decision analysis of atmospheric emission alternatives to reduce ground water degradation on the European scale

    SciTech Connect

    Wladis, D.; Rosen, L.; Kros, H.

    1999-12-01

    Environmental degradation due to emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrate oxides, and ammonia from diffuse sources amounts to substantial costs to society and so do the alternatives to protect and restore the environment. Damage to ground water includes acidification, aluminum leaching, elevated concentrations of nitrate, and eutrophication. Monetary risk-based decision analysis (on a national scale) is applied to compare alternative actions designed to protect ground water from further degradation. This decision analysis uses simulations of nitrate and aluminum concentrations over a 15 year period with two reduction scenarios for sulfur dioxide, nitrate oxides, and ammonia, and results in estimates of economic uncertainty. For each alternative, an objective function is estimated including the implementation costs, the economic risk associated with failure according to the selected decision criteria, and the economic benefits related to the implementation. The decision criteria are based on the European Community drinking water quality standards for nitrate and aluminum. The study aims at incorporating the hydrogeologic uncertainty resulting from the propagation of errors from data input to model out put. A range of economic values has been applied to the ground water resource to study the sensitivity of the decision analysis to valuing ground water. The results indicate that higher reduction rates of the studied pollutants reduce the economic uncertainty but also lead to larger total costs. The study also indicates that the economic uncertainty may be equal to the total cost provided by the objective function. The contamination level of nitrate is much more responsive to the reduction scenarios than the aluminum concentration. For high, but not unrealistic, ground water valuing, the economic uncertainty makes the decision between the studied alternatives unclear.

  9. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan, Erin; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk-Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Forecast uncertainty is a twofold issue, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic forecasts over deterministic forecasts for a diversity of activities in the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. The setup and the results of a risk-based decision-making experiment, designed as a game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called ``How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?'', will be presented. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, including during this session at the EGU conference in 2015, and a total of 129 worksheets were collected and analysed. The aim of this experiment was to contribute to the understanding of the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game showed that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers. Balancing avoided costs and the cost (or the benefit) of having forecasts available for making decisions is not straightforward, even in a simplified game situation, and is a topic that deserves more attention from the hydrological forecasting community in the future.

  10. A Conceptual Framework for Decision-making Support in Uncertainty- and Risk-based Diagnosis of Rare Clinical Cases by Specialist Physicians.

    PubMed

    Santos, Adriano A; Moura, J Antão B; de Araújo, Joseana Macêdo Fechine Régis

    2015-01-01

    Mitigating uncertainty and risks faced by specialist physicians in analysis of rare clinical cases is something desired by anyone who needs health services. The number of clinical cases never seen by these experts, with little documentation, may introduce errors in decision-making. Such errors negatively affect well-being of patients, increase procedure costs, rework, health insurance premiums, and impair the reputation of specialists and medical systems involved. In this context, IT and Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) play a fundamental role, supporting decision-making process, making it more efficient and effective, reducing a number of avoidable medical errors and enhancing quality of treatment given to patients. An investigation has been initiated to look into characteristics and solution requirements of this problem, model it, propose a general solution in terms of a conceptual risk-based, automated framework to support rare-case medical diagnostics and validate it by means of case studies. A preliminary validation study of the proposed framework has been carried out by interviews conducted with experts who are practicing professionals, academics, and researchers in health care. This paper summarizes the investigation and its positive results. These results motivate continuation of research towards development of the conceptual framework and of a software tool that implements the proposed model.

  11. The Study: A Tool for Decision?

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-26

    ABSTRACT AUTHOR(S): John H. Van Zant, Jr., COL, AR TITLE: THE SID : A Tool For Decision? F~HAT: Individual Study Project DATE: 22 April 1985 PAGES...the CSA and HQ,USMC. Thus, while the questions were answered, the larger effort turned out to be almost anti- climatic . WHAT DID IT PROVIDE? The ACVT... change in the threat, the Army leadership became impatient for an answer. As a result, a side study was conducted between January and October 1980 which

  12. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site.

    PubMed

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Bjerg, Poul L

    2010-05-01

    Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions.

  13. ISHM Decision Analysis Tool: Operations Concept

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2006-01-01

    The state-of-the-practice Shuttle caution and warning system warns the crew of conditions that may create a hazard to orbiter operations and/or crew. Depending on the severity of the alarm, the crew is alerted with a combination of sirens, tones, annunciator lights, or fault messages. The combination of anomalies (and hence alarms) indicates the problem. Even with much training, determining what problem a particular combination represents is not trivial. In many situations, an automated diagnosis system can help the crew more easily determine an underlying root cause. Due to limitations of diagnosis systems,however, it is not always possible to explain a set of alarms with a single root cause. Rather, the system generates a set of hypotheses that the crew can select from. The ISHM Decision Analysis Tool (IDAT) assists with this task. It presents the crew relevant information that could help them resolve the ambiguity of multiple root causes and determine a method for mitigating the problem. IDAT follows graphical user interface design guidelines and incorporates a decision analysis system. I describe both of these aspects.

  14. Graphic Representations as Tools for Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howard, Judith

    2001-01-01

    Focuses on the use of graphic representations to enable students to improve their decision making skills in the social studies. Explores three visual aids used in assisting students with decision making: (1) the force field; (2) the decision tree; and (3) the decision making grid. (CMK)

  15. Influence diagrams as oil spill decision science tools

    EPA Science Inventory

    Making inferences on risks to ecosystem services (ES) from ecological crises can be more reliably handled using decision science tools. Influence diagrams (IDs) are probabilistic networks that explicitly represent the decisions related to a problem and evidence of their influence...

  16. A GIS tool to estimate West Nile virus risk based on a degree-day model.

    PubMed

    Zou, Li; Miller, Scott N; Schmidtmann, Edward T

    2007-06-01

    West Nile virus (Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) is a serious infectious disease that recently spread across the North America continent. A spatial analysis tool was developed on the ArcMap 9.x platform to estimate potential West Nile virus activity using a spatially explicit degree-day model. The model identifies when the virus Extrinsic Incubation Period (EIP) is completed within the vector longevity during mid-summer months. The EIP is treated as a threshold indicator of the potential for virus emergence and activity. Comparing the number of West Nile virus cases in Wyoming reported from 2003 to 2005 with model results, actual cases and predicted events of West Nile virus activity match relatively well. The model represents a useful method for estimating potential West Nile virus activity in a large spatial scale.

  17. Visual Decision Support Tool for Supporting Asset ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Abstract:Managing urban water infrastructures faces the challenge of jointly dealing with assets of diverse types, useful life, cost, ages and condition. Service quality and sustainability require sound long-term planning, well aligned with tactical and operational planning and management. In summary, the objective of an integrated approach to infrastructure asset management is to assist utilities answer the following questions:•Who are we at present?•What service do we deliver?•What do we own?•Where do we want to be in the long-term?•How do we get there?The AWARE-P approach (www.aware-p.org) offers a coherent methodological framework and a valuable portfolio of software tools. It is designed to assist water supply and wastewater utility decision-makers in their analyses and planning processes. It is based on a Plan-Do-Check-Act process and is in accordance with the key principles of the International Standards Organization (ISO) 55000 standards on asset management. It is compatible with, and complementary to WERF’s SIMPLE framework. The software assists in strategic, tactical, and operational planning, through a non-intrusive, web-based, collaborative environment where objectives and metrics drive IAM planning. It is aimed at industry professionals and managers, as well as at the consultants and technical experts that support them. It is easy to use and maximizes the value of information from multiple existing data sources, both in da

  18. Decision blocks: A tool for automating decision making in CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eick, Christoph F.; Mehta, Nikhil N.

    1991-01-01

    The human capability of making complex decision is one of the most fascinating facets of human intelligence, especially if vague, judgemental, default or uncertain knowledge is involved. Unfortunately, most existing rule based forward chaining languages are not very suitable to simulate this aspect of human intelligence, because of their lack of support for approximate reasoning techniques needed for this task, and due to the lack of specific constructs to facilitate the coding of frequently reoccurring decision block to provide better support for the design and implementation of rule based decision support systems. A language called BIRBAL, which is defined on the top of CLIPS, for the specification of decision blocks, is introduced. Empirical experiments involving the comparison of the length of CLIPS program with the corresponding BIRBAL program for three different applications are surveyed. The results of these experiments suggest that for decision making intensive applications, a CLIPS program tends to be about three times longer than the corresponding BIRBAL program.

  19. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often confronted with information that predicts a multitude of different human health effects due to environmental stressors. If these health effects need to be contrasted with costs or compared with alternative scena...

  20. Decision Matrices: Tools to Enhance Middle School Engineering Instruction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonczi, Amanda L.; Bergman, Brenda G.; Huntoon, Jackie; Allen, Robin; McIntyre, Barb; Turner, Sheri; Davis, Jen; Handler, Rob

    2017-01-01

    Decision matrices are valuable engineering tools. They allow engineers to objectively examine solution options. Decision matrices can be incorporated in K-12 classrooms to support authentic engineering instruction. In this article we provide examples of how decision matrices have been incorporated into 6th and 7th grade classrooms as part of an…

  1. Development of Asset Management Decision Support Tools for Power Equipment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okamoto, Tatsuki; Takahashi, Tsuguhiro

    Development of asset management decision support tools become very intensive in order to reduce maintenance cost of power equipment due to the liberalization of power business. This article reviews some aspects of present status of asset management decision support tools development for power equipment based on the papers published in international conferences, domestic conventions, and several journals.

  2. Virtual Beach: Decision Support Tools for Beach Pathogen Prediction

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Virtual Beach Managers Tool (VB) is decision-making software developed to help local beach managers make decisions as to when beaches should be closed due to predicted high levels of water borne pathogens. The tool is being developed under the umbrella of EPA's Advanced Monit...

  3. A risk-based focused decision-management approach for justifying characterization of Hanford tank waste. June 1996, Revision 1; April 1997, Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    Colson, S.D.; Gephart, R.E.; Hunter, V.L.; Janata, J.; Morgan, L.G.

    1997-12-31

    This report describes a disciplined, risk-based decision-making approach for determining characterization needs and resolving safety issues during the storage and remediation of radioactive waste stored in Hanford tanks. The strategy recommended uses interactive problem evaluation and decision analysis methods commonly used in industry to solve problems under conditions of uncertainty (i.e., lack of perfect knowledge). It acknowledges that problem resolution comes through both the application of high-quality science and human decisions based upon preferences and sometimes hard-to-compare choices. It recognizes that to firmly resolve a safety problem, the controlling waste characteristics and chemical phenomena must be measurable or estimated to an acceptable level of confidence tailored to the decision being made.

  4. [Economic studies and decision analysis as tools for decision making].

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Pimentel, Leticia; Silva-Romo, Rodolfo; Wacher-Rodarte, Niels

    2007-01-01

    Management implies decision-making and economics deals with efficiency which means to obtain the best possible results with the available resources, and to compare such results with those that were foreseen. The economic evaluation comprises a set of techniques aimed at comparing resource allocation on alternate courses of action and its consequences. In health care, these results are the overall well-being of the society. This paper summarizes the techniques that are customarily used in economic evaluation, and intends to serve as an introductory text to increasing the ability of the readers to grasp original articles in the field of health economics.

  5. Ultrasound technology: A decision-making tool

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An ultrasound demonstration was conducted for participants (~ 110 people) of the Arkansas Cattle Grower’s Conference, Hope, AR. Evaluation of live animals with ultrasound technology allows beef producers the ability to make selection and management decisions. Specifically, ultrasound at the conclu...

  6. Tools to support evidence-informed public health decision making

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Public health professionals are increasingly expected to engage in evidence-informed decision making to inform practice and policy decisions. Evidence-informed decision making involves the use of research evidence along with expertise, existing public health resources, knowledge about community health issues, the local context and community, and the political climate. The National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools has identified a seven step process for evidence-informed decision making. Tools have been developed to support public health professionals as they work through each of these steps. This paper provides an overview of tools used in three Canadian public health departments involved in a study to develop capacity for evidence-informed decision making. Methods As part of a knowledge translation and exchange intervention, a Knowledge Broker worked with public health professionals to identify and apply tools for use with each of the steps of evidence-informed decision making. The Knowledge Broker maintained a reflective journal and interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of decision makers and public health professionals. This paper presents qualitative analysis of the perceived usefulness and usability of the tools. Results Tools were used in the health departments to assist in: question identification and clarification; searching for the best available research evidence; assessing the research evidence for quality through critical appraisal; deciphering the ‘actionable message(s)’ from the research evidence; tailoring messages to the local context to ensure their relevance and suitability; deciding whether and planning how to implement research evidence in the local context; and evaluating the effectiveness of implementation efforts. Decision makers provided descriptions of how the tools were used within the health departments and made suggestions for improvement. Overall, the tools were perceived as valuable for advancing

  7. TBell: A mathematical tool for analyzing decision tables

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoover, D. N.; Chen, Zewei

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the development of mathematical theory and software to analyze specifications that are developed using decision tables. A decision table is a tabular format for specifying a complex set of rules that chooses one of a number of alternative actions. The report also describes a prototype tool, called TBell, that automates certain types of analysis.

  8. GET SMARTE: DECISION TOOLS TO REVITALIZE COMMUNITIES (MAY 2006)

    EPA Science Inventory

    SMARTe (Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools-electronic) is an open-source, web-based, decision-support system for developing and evaluating future use scenarios for potentially contaminated sites (i.e., brownfields). It contains resources and analysis tools...

  9. Integrated decision support tools for Puget Sound salmon recovery planning

    EPA Science Inventory

    We developed a set of tools to provide decision support for community-based salmon recovery planning in Salish Sea watersheds. Here we describe how these tools are being integrated and applied in collaboration with Puget Sound tribes and community stakeholders to address restora...

  10. Assessing the predictive performance of risk-based water quality criteria using decision error estimates from receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis.

    PubMed

    McLaughlin, Douglas B

    2012-10-01

    Field data relating aquatic ecosystem responses with water quality constituents that are potential ecosystem stressors are being used increasingly in the United States in the derivation of water quality criteria to protect aquatic life. In light of this trend, there is a need for transparent quantitative methods to assess the performance of models that predict ecological conditions using a stressor-response relationship, a response variable threshold, and a stressor variable criterion. Analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROC analysis) has a considerable history of successful use in medical diagnostic, industrial, and other fields for similarly structured decision problems, but its use for informing water quality management decisions involving risk-based environmental criteria is less common. In this article, ROC analysis is used to evaluate predictions of ecological response variable status for 3 water quality stressor-response data sets. Information on error rates is emphasized due in part to their common use in environmental studies to describe uncertainty. One data set is comprised of simulated data, and 2 involve field measurements described previously in the literature. These data sets are also analyzed using linear regression and conditional probability analysis for comparison. Results indicate that of the methods studied, ROC analysis provides the most comprehensive characterization of prediction error rates including false positive, false negative, positive predictive, and negative predictive errors. This information may be used along with other data analysis procedures to set quality objectives for and assess the predictive performance of risk-based criteria to support water quality management decisions.

  11. Integrating decision tools for the sustainable management of land contamination.

    PubMed

    Pollard, S J T; Brookes, A; Earl, N; Lowe, J; Kearney, T; Nathanail, C P

    2004-06-05

    The approach to taking decisions on the management of land contamination has changed markedly over 30 years. Change has been rapid with policy makers and regulators, practitioners and researchers having to keep pace with new technologies, assessment criteria and diagnostic methods for their measurement, techniques for risk analysis and the frameworks that support decision-makers in their efforts to regenerate historically contaminated land. Having progressed from simple hazard assessment through to 'sustainability appraisal' we might now consider piecing together the experience of decision-making for managing land contamination. Here, we critically review recent developments with a view to considering how better decisions can be made by integrating the decision tools available. We are concerned with the practicality of approach and the issues that arise for practitioners as decision criteria are broadened.

  12. ClinicalAccess: a clinical decision support tool.

    PubMed

    Crowell, Karen; Vardell, Emily

    2015-01-01

    ClinicalAccess is a new clinical decision support tool that uses a question-and-answer format to mirror clinical decision-making strategies. The unique format of ClinicalAccess delivers concise, authoritative answers to more than 120,000 clinical questions. This column presents a review of the product, a sample search, and a comparison with other point-of-care search engines.

  13. A Decision Support Model and Tool to Assist Financial Decision-Making in Universities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bhayat, Imtiaz; Manuguerra, Maurizio; Baldock, Clive

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a model and tool is proposed to assist universities and other mission-based organisations to ascertain systematically the optimal portfolio of projects, in any year, meeting the organisations risk tolerances and available funds. The model and tool presented build on previous work on university operations and decision support systems…

  14. A network model of basal ganglia for understanding the roles of dopamine and serotonin in reward-punishment-risk based decision making.

    PubMed

    Balasubramani, Pragathi P; Chakravarthy, V Srinivasa; Ravindran, Balaraman; Moustafa, Ahmed A

    2015-01-01

    There is significant evidence that in addition to reward-punishment based decision making, the Basal Ganglia (BG) contributes to risk-based decision making (Balasubramani et al., 2014). Despite this evidence, little is known about the computational principles and neural correlates of risk computation in this subcortical system. We have previously proposed a reinforcement learning (RL)-based model of the BG that simulates the interactions between dopamine (DA) and serotonin (5HT) in a diverse set of experimental studies including reward, punishment and risk based decision making (Balasubramani et al., 2014). Starting with the classical idea that the activity of mesencephalic DA represents reward prediction error, the model posits that serotoninergic activity in the striatum controls risk-prediction error. Our prior model of the BG was an abstract model that did not incorporate anatomical and cellular-level data. In this work, we expand the earlier model into a detailed network model of the BG and demonstrate the joint contributions of DA-5HT in risk and reward-punishment sensitivity. At the core of the proposed network model is the following insight regarding cellular correlates of value and risk computation. Just as DA D1 receptor (D1R) expressing medium spiny neurons (MSNs) of the striatum were thought to be the neural substrates for value computation, we propose that DA D1R and D2R co-expressing MSNs are capable of computing risk. Though the existence of MSNs that co-express D1R and D2R are reported by various experimental studies, prior existing computational models did not include them. Ours is the first model that accounts for the computational possibilities of these co-expressing D1R-D2R MSNs, and describes how DA and 5HT mediate activity in these classes of neurons (D1R-, D2R-, D1R-D2R- MSNs). Starting from the assumption that 5HT modulates all MSNs, our study predicts significant modulatory effects of 5HT on D2R and co-expressing D1R-D2R MSNs which in turn

  15. Promoting Shared Decision Making in Disorders of Sex Development (DSD): Decision Aids and Support Tools.

    PubMed

    Siminoff, L A; Sandberg, D E

    2015-05-01

    Specific complaints and grievances from adult patients with disorders of sex development (DSD), and their advocates center around the lack of information or misinformation they were given about their condition and feeling stigmatized and shamed by the secrecy surrounding their condition and its management. Many also attribute poor sexual function to damaging genital surgery and/or repeated, insensitive genital examinations. These reports suggest the need to reconsider the decision-making process for the treatment of children born with DSD. This paper proposes that shared decision making, an important concept in adult health care, be operationalized for the major decisions commonly encountered in DSD care and facilitated through the utilization of decision aids and support tools. This approach may help patients and their families make informed decisions that are better aligned with their personal values and goals. It may also lead to greater confidence in decision making with greater satisfaction and less regret. A brief review of the past and current approach to DSD decision making is provided, along with a review of shared decision making and decision aids and support tools. A case study explores the need and potential utility of this suggested new approach.

  16. Investigating the Heart Pump Implant Decision Process: Opportunities for Decision Support Tools to Help

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Qian; Zimmerman, John; Steinfeld, Aaron; Carey, Lisa; Antaki, James F.

    2016-01-01

    Clinical decision support tools (DSTs) are computational systems that aid healthcare decision-making. While effective in labs, almost all these systems failed when they moved into clinical practice. Healthcare researchers speculated it is most likely due to a lack of user-centered HCI considerations in the design of these systems. This paper describes a field study investigating how clinicians make a heart pump implant decision with a focus on how to best integrate an intelligent DST into their work process. Our findings reveal a lack of perceived need for and trust of machine intelligence, as well as many barriers to computer use at the point of clinical decision-making. These findings suggest an alternative perspective to the traditional use models, in which clinicians engage with DSTs at the point of making a decision. We identify situations across patients’ healthcare trajectories when decision supports would help, and we discuss new forms it might take in these situations. PMID:27833397

  17. Impact of a decision-support tool on decision making at the district level in Kenya

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In many countries, the responsibility for planning and delivery of health services is devolved to the subnational level. Health programs, however, often fall short of efficient use of data to inform decisions. As a result, programs are not as effective as they can be at meeting the health needs of the populations they serve. In Kenya, a decision-support tool, the District Health Profile (DHP) tool was developed to integrate data from health programs, primarily HIV, at the district level and to enable district health management teams to review and monitor program progress for specific health issues to make informed service delivery decisions. Methods Thirteen in-depth interviews were conducted with ten tool users and three non-users in six districts to qualitatively assess the process of implementing the tool and its effect on data-informed decision making at the district level. The factors that affected use or non-use of the tool were also investigated. Respondents were selected via convenience sample from among those that had been trained to use the DHP tool except for one user who was self-taught to use the tool. Selection criteria also included respondents from urban districts with significant resources as well as respondents from more remote, under-resourced districts. Results Findings from the in-depth interviews suggest that among those who used it, the DHP tool had a positive effect on data analysis, review, interpretation, and sharing at the district level. The automated function of the tool allowed for faster data sharing and immediate observation of trends that facilitated data-informed decision making. All respondents stated that the DHP tool assisted them to better target existing services in need of improvement and to plan future services, thus positively influencing program improvement. Conclusions This paper stresses the central role that a targeted decision-support tool can play in making data aggregation, analysis, and presentation

  18. Developing a Decision Support System: The Software and Hardware Tools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Phillip M.

    1989-01-01

    Describes some of the available software and hardware tools that can be used to develop a decision support system implemented on microcomputers. Activities that should be supported by software are discussed, including data entry, data coding, finding and combining data, and data compatibility. Hardware considerations include speed, storage…

  19. Water flow algorithm decision support tool for travelling salesman problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamarudin, Anis Aklima; Othman, Zulaiha Ali; Sarim, Hafiz Mohd

    2016-08-01

    This paper discuss about the role of Decision Support Tool in Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) for helping the researchers who doing research in same area will get the better result from the proposed algorithm. A study has been conducted and Rapid Application Development (RAD) model has been use as a methodology which includes requirement planning, user design, construction and cutover. Water Flow Algorithm (WFA) with initialization technique improvement is used as the proposed algorithm in this study for evaluating effectiveness against TSP cases. For DST evaluation will go through usability testing conducted on system use, quality of information, quality of interface and overall satisfaction. Evaluation is needed for determine whether this tool can assists user in making a decision to solve TSP problems with the proposed algorithm or not. Some statistical result shown the ability of this tool in term of helping researchers to conduct the experiments on the WFA with improvements TSP initialization.

  20. Guidance Tools for Use in Nuclear Material Management Decisions Making

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, G. V.; Baker, D. J.; Sorenson, K. B.; Boeke, S. G.

    2002-02-26

    This paper describes the results of Recommendation 14 of the Integrated Nuclear Materials Management Plan (INMMP) which was the product of a management initiative at the highest levels of the Department of Energy responding to a congressional directive to accelerate the work of achieving integration and cutting long-term costs associated with the management of nuclear materials, with the principal focus on excess materials. The INMMP provided direction to ''Develop policy-level decision support tools to support long-term planning and decision making.'' To accomplish this goal a team from the Savannah River Site, Sandia National Laboratories, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), and the U.S. Department of Energy experienced in the decision-making process developed a Guidebook to Decision-Making Methods. The goal of the team organized to implement Recommendation 14 was to instill transparency, consistency, rigor, and discipline in the DOE decision process. The guidebook introduces a process and a selection of proven methods for disciplined decision-making so that the results are clearer, more transparent, and easier for reviewers to understand and accept. It was written to set a standard for a consistent decision process.

  1. Cognitive Judgment Bias Interacts with Risk Based Decision Making and Sensitivity to Dopaminergic Challenge in Male Rats.

    PubMed

    Drozd, Robert; Cieslak, Przemyslaw E; Rychlik, Michal; Rodriguez Parkitna, Jan; Rygula, Rafal

    2016-01-01

    Although the cognitive theory has implicated judgment bias in various psychopathologies, its role in decision making under risk remains relatively unexplored. In the present study, we assessed the effects of cognitive judgment bias on risky choices in rats. First, we trained and tested the animals on the rat version of the probability-discounting (PD) task. During discrete trials, the rats chose between two levers; a press on the "small/certain" lever always resulted in the delivery of one reward pellet, whereas a press on the "large/risky" lever resulted in the delivery of four pellets. However, the probability of receiving a reward from the "large/risky" lever gradually decreased over the four trial blocks. Subsequently, the rats were re-trained and evaluated on a series of ambiguous-cue interpretation (ACI) tests, which permitted their classification according to the display of "optimistic" or "pessimistic" traits. Because dopamine (DA) has been implicated in both: risky choices and optimism, in the last experiment, we compared the reactivity of the dopaminergic system in the "optimistic" and "pessimistic" animals using the apomorphine (APO; 2 mg/kg s.c.) sensitivity test. We demonstrated that as risk increased, the proportion of risky lever choices decreased significantly slower in "optimists" compared with "pessimists" and that these differences between the two groups of rats were associated with different levels of dopaminergic system reactivity. Our findings suggest that cognitive judgment bias, risky decision-making and DA are linked, and they provide a foundation for further investigation of the behavioral traits and cognitive processes that influence risky choices in animal models.

  2. Cognitive Judgment Bias Interacts with Risk Based Decision Making and Sensitivity to Dopaminergic Challenge in Male Rats

    PubMed Central

    Drozd, Robert; Cieslak, Przemyslaw E.; Rychlik, Michal; Rodriguez Parkitna, Jan; Rygula, Rafal

    2016-01-01

    Although the cognitive theory has implicated judgment bias in various psychopathologies, its role in decision making under risk remains relatively unexplored. In the present study, we assessed the effects of cognitive judgment bias on risky choices in rats. First, we trained and tested the animals on the rat version of the probability-discounting (PD) task. During discrete trials, the rats chose between two levers; a press on the “small/certain” lever always resulted in the delivery of one reward pellet, whereas a press on the “large/risky” lever resulted in the delivery of four pellets. However, the probability of receiving a reward from the “large/risky” lever gradually decreased over the four trial blocks. Subsequently, the rats were re-trained and evaluated on a series of ambiguous-cue interpretation (ACI) tests, which permitted their classification according to the display of “optimistic” or “pessimistic” traits. Because dopamine (DA) has been implicated in both: risky choices and optimism, in the last experiment, we compared the reactivity of the dopaminergic system in the “optimistic” and “pessimistic” animals using the apomorphine (APO; 2 mg/kg s.c.) sensitivity test. We demonstrated that as risk increased, the proportion of risky lever choices decreased significantly slower in “optimists” compared with “pessimists” and that these differences between the two groups of rats were associated with different levels of dopaminergic system reactivity. Our findings suggest that cognitive judgment bias, risky decision-making and DA are linked, and they provide a foundation for further investigation of the behavioral traits and cognitive processes that influence risky choices in animal models. PMID:27601984

  3. Online Produced Water Treatment Catalog and Decision Tool

    SciTech Connect

    J. Arthur

    2012-03-31

    The objective of this project was to create an internet-based Water Treatment Technology Catalog and Decision Tool that will increase production, decrease costs and enhance environmental protection. This is to be accomplished by pairing an operator's water treatment cost and capacity needs to specific water treatments. This project cataloged existing and emerging produced water treatment technologies and allows operators to identify the most cost-effective approaches for managing their produced water. The tool captures the cost and capabilities of each technology and the disposal and beneficial use options for each region. The tool then takes location, chemical composition, and volumetric data for the operator's water and identifies the most cost effective treatment options for that water. Regulatory requirements or limitations for each location are also addressed. The Produced Water Treatment Catalog and Decision Tool efficiently matches industry decision makers in unconventional natural gas basins with: 1) appropriate and applicable water treatment technologies for their project, 2) relevant information on regulatory and legal issues that may impact the success of their project, and 3) potential beneficial use demands specific to their project area. To ensure the success of this project, it was segmented into seven tasks conducted in three phases over a three year period. The tasks were overseen by a Project Advisory Council (PAC) made up of stakeholders including state and federal agency representatives and industry representatives. ALL Consulting has made the catalog and decision tool available on the Internet for the final year of the project. The second quarter of the second budget period, work was halted based on the February 18, 2011 budget availability; however previous project deliverables were submitted on time and the deliverables for Task 6 and 7 were completed ahead of schedule. Thus the application and catalog were deployed to the public Internet

  4. Markov Decision Processes: A Tool for Sequential Decision Making under Uncertainty

    PubMed Central

    Alagoz, Oguzhan; Hsu, Heather; Schaefer, Andrew J.; Roberts, Mark S.

    2011-01-01

    We provide a tutorial on the construction and evaluation of Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are powerful analytical tools used for sequential decision making under uncertainty that have been widely used in many industrial and manufacturing applications but are underutilized in medical decision making (MDM). We demonstrate the use of an MDP to solve a sequential clinical treatment problem under uncertainty. Markov decision processes generalize standard Markov models in that a decision process is embedded in the model and multiple decisions are made over time. Furthermore, they have significant advantages over standard decision analysis. We compare MDPs to standard Markov-based simulation models by solving the problem of the optimal timing of living-donor liver transplantation using both methods. Both models result in the same optimal transplantation policy and the same total life expectancies for the same patient and living donor. The computation time for solving the MDP model is significantly smaller than that for solving the Markov model. We briefly describe the growing literature of MDPs applied to medical decisions. PMID:20044582

  5. Markov decision processes: a tool for sequential decision making under uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Alagoz, Oguzhan; Hsu, Heather; Schaefer, Andrew J; Roberts, Mark S

    2010-01-01

    We provide a tutorial on the construction and evaluation of Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are powerful analytical tools used for sequential decision making under uncertainty that have been widely used in many industrial and manufacturing applications but are underutilized in medical decision making (MDM). We demonstrate the use of an MDP to solve a sequential clinical treatment problem under uncertainty. Markov decision processes generalize standard Markov models in that a decision process is embedded in the model and multiple decisions are made over time. Furthermore, they have significant advantages over standard decision analysis. We compare MDPs to standard Markov-based simulation models by solving the problem of the optimal timing of living-donor liver transplantation using both methods. Both models result in the same optimal transplantation policy and the same total life expectancies for the same patient and living donor. The computation time for solving the MDP model is significantly smaller than that for solving the Markov model. We briefly describe the growing literature of MDPs applied to medical decisions.

  6. Demonstration of Decision Support Tools for Sustainable Development

    SciTech Connect

    Shropshire, David Earl; Jacobson, Jacob Jordan; Berrett, Sharon; Cobb, D. A.; Worhach, P.

    2000-11-01

    The Demonstration of Decision Support Tools for Sustainable Development project integrated the Bechtel/Nexant Industrial Materials Exchange Planner and the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory System Dynamic models, demonstrating their capabilities on alternative fuel applications in the Greater Yellowstone-Teton Park system. The combined model, called the Dynamic Industrial Material Exchange, was used on selected test cases in the Greater Yellow Teton Parks region to evaluate economic, environmental, and social implications of alternative fuel applications, and identifying primary and secondary industries. The test cases included looking at compressed natural gas applications in Teton National Park and Jackson, Wyoming, and studying ethanol use in Yellowstone National Park and gateway cities in Montana. With further development, the system could be used to assist decision-makers (local government, planners, vehicle purchasers, and fuel suppliers) in selecting alternative fuels, vehicles, and developing AF infrastructures. The system could become a regional AF market assessment tool that could help decision-makers understand the behavior of the AF market and conditions in which the market would grow. Based on this high level market assessment, investors and decision-makers would become more knowledgeable of the AF market opportunity before developing detailed plans and preparing financial analysis.

  7. Adaptation for Planting and Irrigation Decisions to Changing Monsoon Regime in Northeast India: Risk-based Hydro-economic Optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, T.; Cai, X.

    2013-12-01

    Delay in onset of Indian summer monsoon becomes increasingly frequent. Delayed monsoon and occasional monsoon failures seriously affect agricultural production in the northeast as well as other parts of India. In the Vaishali district of the Bihar State, Monsoon rainfall is very skewed and erratic, often concentrating in shorter durations. Farmers in Vaishali reported that delayed Monsoon affected paddy planting and, consequently delayed cropping cycle, putting crops under the risks of 'terminal heat.' Canal system in the district does not function due to lack of maintenance; irrigation relies almost entirely on groundwater. Many small farmers choose not to irrigate when monsoon onset is delayed due to high diesel price, leading to reduced production or even crop failure. Some farmers adapt to delayed onset of Monsoon by planting short-duration rice, which gives the flexibility for planting the next season crops. Other sporadic autonomous adaptation activities were observed as well, with various levels of success. Adaptation recommendations and effective policy interventions are much needed. To explore robust options to adapt to the changing Monsoon regime, we build a stochastic programming model to optimize revenues of farmer groups categorized by landholding size, subject to stochastic Monsoon onset and rainfall amount. Imperfect probabilistic long-range forecast is used to inform the model onset and rainfall amount probabilities; the 'skill' of the forecasting is measured using probabilities of correctly predicting events in the past derived through hindcasting. Crop production functions are determined using self-calibrating Positive Mathematical Programming approach. The stochastic programming model aims to emulate decision-making behaviors of representative farmer agents through making choices in adaptation, including crop mix, planting dates, irrigation, and use of weather information. A set of technological and policy intervention scenarios are tested

  8. An extended reinforcement learning model of basal ganglia to understand the contributions of serotonin and dopamine in risk-based decision making, reward prediction, and punishment learning.

    PubMed

    Balasubramani, Pragathi P; Chakravarthy, V Srinivasa; Ravindran, Balaraman; Moustafa, Ahmed A

    2014-01-01

    Although empirical and neural studies show that serotonin (5HT) plays many functional roles in the brain, prior computational models mostly focus on its role in behavioral inhibition. In this study, we present a model of risk based decision making in a modified Reinforcement Learning (RL)-framework. The model depicts the roles of dopamine (DA) and serotonin (5HT) in Basal Ganglia (BG). In this model, the DA signal is represented by the temporal difference error (δ), while the 5HT signal is represented by a parameter (α) that controls risk prediction error. This formulation that accommodates both 5HT and DA reconciles some of the diverse roles of 5HT particularly in connection with the BG system. We apply the model to different experimental paradigms used to study the role of 5HT: (1) Risk-sensitive decision making, where 5HT controls risk assessment, (2) Temporal reward prediction, where 5HT controls time-scale of reward prediction, and (3) Reward/Punishment sensitivity, in which the punishment prediction error depends on 5HT levels. Thus the proposed integrated RL model reconciles several existing theories of 5HT and DA in the BG.

  9. An extended reinforcement learning model of basal ganglia to understand the contributions of serotonin and dopamine in risk-based decision making, reward prediction, and punishment learning

    PubMed Central

    Balasubramani, Pragathi P.; Chakravarthy, V. Srinivasa; Ravindran, Balaraman; Moustafa, Ahmed A.

    2014-01-01

    Although empirical and neural studies show that serotonin (5HT) plays many functional roles in the brain, prior computational models mostly focus on its role in behavioral inhibition. In this study, we present a model of risk based decision making in a modified Reinforcement Learning (RL)-framework. The model depicts the roles of dopamine (DA) and serotonin (5HT) in Basal Ganglia (BG). In this model, the DA signal is represented by the temporal difference error (δ), while the 5HT signal is represented by a parameter (α) that controls risk prediction error. This formulation that accommodates both 5HT and DA reconciles some of the diverse roles of 5HT particularly in connection with the BG system. We apply the model to different experimental paradigms used to study the role of 5HT: (1) Risk-sensitive decision making, where 5HT controls risk assessment, (2) Temporal reward prediction, where 5HT controls time-scale of reward prediction, and (3) Reward/Punishment sensitivity, in which the punishment prediction error depends on 5HT levels. Thus the proposed integrated RL model reconciles several existing theories of 5HT and DA in the BG. PMID:24795614

  10. Human Decision Processes: Implications for SSA Support Tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Picciano, P.

    2013-09-01

    Despite significant advances in computing power and artificial intelligence (AI), few critical decisions are made without a human decision maker in the loop. Space Situational Awareness (SSA) missions are both critical and complex, typically adhering to the human-in-the-loop (HITL) model. The collection of human operators injects a needed diversity of expert knowledge, experience, and authority required to successfully fulfill SSA tasking. A wealth of literature on human decision making exists citing myriad empirical studies and offering a varied set of prescriptive and descriptive models of judgment and decision making (Hastie & Dawes, 2001; Baron, 2000). Many findings have been proven sufficiently robust to allow information architects or system/interface designers to take action to improve decision processes. For the purpose of discussion, these concepts are bifurcated in two groups: 1) vulnerabilities to mitigate, and 2) capabilities to augment. These vulnerabilities and capabilities refer specifically to the decision process and should not be confused with a shortcoming or skill of a specific human operator. Thus the framing of questions and orders, the automated tools with which to collaborate, priming and contextual data, and the delivery of information all play a critical role in human judgment and choice. Evaluating the merits of any decision can be elusive; in order to constrain this discussion, ‘rational choice' will tend toward the economic model characteristics such as maximizing utility and selection consistency (e.g., if A preferred to B, and B preferred to C, than A should be preferred to C). Simple decision models often encourage one to list the pros and cons of a decision, perhaps use a weighting schema, but one way or another weigh the future benefit (or harm) of making a selection. The result (sought by the rationalist models) should drive toward higher utility. Despite notable differences in researchers' theses (to be discussed in the full

  11. Conceptual air sparging decision tool in support of the development of an air sparging optimization decision tool

    SciTech Connect

    1995-09-01

    The enclosed document describes a conceptual decision tool (hereinafter, Tool) for determining applicability of and for optimizing air sparging systems. The Tool was developed by a multi-disciplinary team of internationally recognized experts in air sparging technology, lead by a group of project and task managers at Parsons Engineering Science, Inc. (Parsons ES). The team included Mr. Douglas Downey and Dr. Robert Hinchee of Parsons ES, Dr. Paul Johnson of Arizona State University, Dr. Richard Johnson of Oregon Graduate Institute, and Mr. Michael Marley of Envirogen, Inc. User Community Panel Review was coordinated by Dr. Robert Siegrist of Colorado School of Mines (also of Oak Ridge National Laboratory) and Dr. Thomas Brouns of Battelle/Pacific Northwest Laboratory. The Tool is intended to provide guidance to field practitioners and environmental managers for evaluating the applicability and optimization of air sparging as remedial action technique.

  12. A Customized Drought Decision Support Tool for Hsinchu Science Park

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Jung; Tien, Yu-Chuan; Lin, Hsuan-Te; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Tung, Ching-Pin

    2016-04-01

    Climate change creates more challenges for water resources management. Due to the lack of sufficient precipitation in Taiwan in fall of 2014, many cities and counties suffered from water shortage during early 2015. Many companies in Hsinchu Science Park were significantly influenced and realized that they need a decision support tool to help them managing water resources. Therefore, a customized computer program was developed, which is capable of predicting the future status of public water supply system and water storage of factories when the water rationing is announced by the government. This program presented in this study for drought decision support (DDSS) is a customized model for a semiconductor company in the Hsinchu Science Park. The DDSS is programmed in Java which is a platform-independent language. System requirements are any PC with the operating system above Windows XP and an installed Java SE Runtime Environment 7. The DDSS serves two main functions. First function is to predict the future storage of Baoshan Reservoir and Second Baoshan Reservoir, so to determine the time point of water use restriction in Hsinchu Science Park. Second function is to use the results to help the company to make decisions to trigger their response plans. The DDSS can conduct real-time scenario simulations calculating the possible storage of water tank for each factory with pre-implementation and post-implementation of those response plans. In addition, DDSS can create reports in Excel to help decision makers to compare results between different scenarios.

  13. A Flight Deck Decision Support Tool for Autonomous Airborne Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ballin, Mark G.; Sharma, Vivek; Vivona, Robert A.; Johnson, Edward J.; Ramiscal, Ermin

    2002-01-01

    NASA is developing a flight deck decision support tool to support research into autonomous operations in a future distributed air/ground traffic management environment. This interactive real-time decision aid, referred to as the Autonomous Operations Planner (AOP), will enable the flight crew to plan autonomously in the presence of dense traffic and complex flight management constraints. In assisting the flight crew, the AOP accounts for traffic flow management and airspace constraints, schedule requirements, weather hazards, aircraft operational limits, and crew or airline flight-planning goals. This paper describes the AOP and presents an overview of functional and implementation design considerations required for its development. Required AOP functionality is described, its application in autonomous operations research is discussed, and a prototype software architecture for the AOP is presented.

  14. Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools for Noise Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tobias, Leonard

    2001-01-01

    NASA has initiated a new five year program this year, the Quiet Aircraft Technology (QAT) Program, a program which will investigate airframe and engine system noise reduction. QAT will also address community noise impact. As part of this community noise impact component, NASA will investigate air traffic management (ATM) challenges in reducing noise. In particular, controller advisory automation aids will be developed to aid the air traffic controller in addressing noise concerns as he/she manages traffic in busy terminal areas. NASA has developed controller automation tools to address capacity concerns and the QAT strategy for ATM Low Noise Operations is to build upon this tool set to create added advisories for noise mitigation. The tools developed for capacity will be briefly reviewed, followed by the QAT plans to address ATM noise concerns. A major NASA goal in global civil aviation is to triple the aviation system throughput in all-weather conditions while maintaining safety. A centerpiece of this activity is the Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), an evolving suite of air traffic controller decision support tools (DSTs) to enhance capacity of arrivals and departures in both the enroute center and the TRACON. Two of these DSTs, the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) and the passive Final approach Spacing Tool (pFAST), are in daily use at the Fort Worth Center and the Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) TRACON, respectively, where capacity gains of 5-13% have been reported in recent NASA evaluations. Under the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Free Flight Phase One Program, TMA and pFAST are each being implemented at six to eight additional sites. In addition, other DSTs are being developed by NASA under the umbrella of CTAS. This means that new software will be built upon CTAS, and the paradigm of real-time simulation evaluation followed by field site development and evaluation will be the pathway for the new tools. Additional information is included in the

  15. Decision tool for the early diagnosis of trauma patient hypovolemia.

    PubMed

    Chen, Liangyou; McKenna, Thomas M; Reisner, Andrew T; Gribok, Andrei; Reifman, Jaques

    2008-06-01

    We present a classifier for use as a decision assist tool to identify a hypovolemic state in trauma patients during helicopter transport to a hospital, when reliable acquisition of vital-sign data may be difficult. The decision tool uses basic vital-sign variables as input into linear classifiers, which are then combined into an ensemble classifier. The classifier identifies hypovolemic patients with an area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.76 (standard deviation 0.05, for 100 randomly-reselected patient subsets). The ensemble classifier is robust; classification performance degrades only slowly as variables are dropped, and the ensemble structure does not require identification of a set of variables for use as best-feature inputs into the classifier. The ensemble classifier consistently outperforms best-features-based linear classifiers (the classification AUC is greater, and the standard deviation is smaller, p<0.05). The simple computational requirements of ensemble classifiers will permit them to function in small fieldable devices for continuous monitoring of trauma patients.

  16. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S; Nugent, Philip J

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  17. Enhancing Drought Risk Management: Tools and Services for Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svoboda, M. D.; Hayes, M. J.

    2011-12-01

    The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) (http://drought.unl.edu) has been working with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) (http://drought.gov) and other partners with a goal of developing tools, products, services and outreach with a goal of contributing to a U.S. drought early warning system (DEWS) as well as contributing to efforts underway toward building a virtual and collaborative global drought early warning system (GDEWS). The NDMC's mission is to work to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: develop and implement DEWS, understand and prevent drought impacts and increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive risk management planning. The NDMC is a national center founded in 1995 and located at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The NDMC conducts basic and applied research, services and decision support applications, along with the maintaining of a number of operational drought-related tools, products and outreach activities, including the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), Drought Impact Reporter (DIR), Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) along with the newly developed and enhanced National Drought Atlas, Drought Ready Communities Guide to Community Drought Preparedness and our Managing Drought Risk on the Ranch planning section on our newly revamped web site at http://drought.unl.edu. This presentation will describe in more detail the various drought resources, tools, research efforts, services and collaborations already being provided by the NDMC and its partners toward developing a collaborative DEWS in the U.S. and around the world.

  18. DPSIR Framework - A Decision - Making Tool for Municipalities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Majorošová, M.

    2016-12-01

    Many municipalities in Central Europe deal with the problem of invasive species in their natural ecosystems. Invasive vegetation eradicates native species and causes dense stands that damage the natural environment. This work shows how important it is to have an informative tool for municipalities to be successful in their struggles with invasive species. A Driver - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR) framework is a decision - making tool, and this one is particularly applied to the species Fallopia japonica. Fallopia japonica is an extremely invasive and aggressive weed, and it is very often found in riverbank vegetation. This specific framework can be used as a tool for municipal managers to highlight all the problems with Fallopia japonica and define all the responses that should be provided by the municipalities. The work points out the steps that show how important it is to have a strategy or a clear concept of how to begin with such a serious issue as the presence of Fallopia japonica in riverbank vegetation and its eradication. This framework provides simple steps that cannot be excluded when a municipality start actions against Fallopia japonica. All the indicators used in the model are based on the information known about Fallopia japonica that are presented in the literature.

  19. Facilitating knowledge transfer: decision support tools in environment and health.

    PubMed

    Liu, Hai-Ying; Bartonova, Alena; Neofytou, Panagiotis; Yang, Aileen; Kobernus, Michael J; Negrenti, Emanuele; Housiadas, Christos

    2012-06-28

    The HENVINET Health and Environment Network aimed to enhance the use of scientific knowledge in environmental health for policy making. One of the goals was to identify and evaluate Decision Support Tools (DST) in current use. Special attention was paid to four "priority" health issues: asthma and allergies, cancer, neurodevelopment disorders, and endocrine disruptors.We identified a variety of tools that are used for decision making at various levels and by various stakeholders. We developed a common framework for information acquisition about DSTs, translated this to a database structure and collected the information in an online Metadata Base (MDB).The primary product is an open access web-based MDB currently filled with 67 DSTs, accessible through the HENVINET networking portal http://www.henvinet.eu and http://henvinet.nilu.no. Quality assurance and control of the entries and evaluation of requirements to use the DSTs were also a focus of the work. The HENVINET DST MDB is an open product that enables the public to get basic information about the DSTs, and to search the DSTs using pre-designed attributes or free text. Registered users are able to 1) review and comment on existing DSTs; 2) evaluate each DST's functionalities, and 3) add new DSTs, or change the entry for their own DSTs. Assessment of the available 67 DSTs showed: 1) more than 25% of the DSTs address only one pollution source; 2) 25% of the DSTs address only one environmental stressor; 3) almost 50% of the DSTs are only applied to one disease; 4) 41% of the DSTs can only be applied to one decision making area; 5) 60% of the DSTs' results are used only by national authority and/or municipality/urban level administration; 6) almost half of the DSTs are used only by environmental professionals and researchers. This indicates that there is a need to develop DSTs covering an increasing number of pollution sources, environmental stressors and health end points, and considering links to other 'Driving

  20. Decision Analysis Tool to Compare Energy Pathways for Transportation

    SciTech Connect

    Bloyd, Cary N.

    2010-06-30

    With the goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, oil imports, and energy costs, a wide variety of automotive technologies are proposed to replace the traditional gasoline-powered internal combustion engine (g-ICE). Biomass is seen as an important domestic energy feedstock, and there are multiple pathways in which it can be linked to the transport sector. Contenders include the use of cellulosic ethanol from biomass to replace gasoline or the use of a biomass-fueled combined cycle electrical power generation facility in conjunction plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). This paper reviews a project that is developing a scenario decision analysis tool to assist policy makers, program managers, and others to obtain a better understanding of these uncertain possibilities and how they may interact over time.

  1. New decision support tool for acute lymphoblastic leukemia classification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madhukar, Monica; Agaian, Sos; Chronopoulos, Anthony T.

    2012-03-01

    In this paper, we build up a new decision support tool to improve treatment intensity choice in childhood ALL. The developed system includes different methods to accurately measure furthermore cell properties in microscope blood film images. The blood images are exposed to series of pre-processing steps which include color correlation, and contrast enhancement. By performing K-means clustering on the resultant images, the nuclei of the cells under consideration are obtained. Shape features and texture features are then extracted for classification. The system is further tested on the classification of spectra measured from the cell nuclei in blood samples in order to distinguish normal cells from those affected by Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia. The results show that the proposed system robustly segments and classifies acute lymphoblastic leukemia based on complete microscopic blood images.

  2. [An ethical decision-making tool. Training for decision-making in crisis or end-of-life situations].

    PubMed

    Gomas, J M

    We developed a patient-centered decision making tool to help healthcare teams make ethical decisions in crisis or end-of-life situations. This tool is the fruit of 15 years of healthcare experience and discussions on ethical issues with patients suffering from cancer, severe handicaps or terminal disease. It has been enriched by experience acquired since the publication of earlier work in the nineties. A three-step decision-making process is proposed providing a methodic aid for management decisions which remain unique for each individual patient.

  3. NOAA Climate Information and Tools for Decision Support Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timofeyeva, M. M.; Higgins, W.; Strager, C.; Horsfall, F. M.

    2013-12-01

    provision of information that will help guide long-term preparedness for severe weather events and extreme conditions as well as climate variability and change GFCS recently summarized examples of existing initiatives to advance provision of climate services in the 2012 publication Climate ExChange. In this publication, NWS introduced the new Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT), a tool that is used to conduct local climate studies that are needed to create efficient and reliable guidance for DSS. LCAT allows for analyzing trends in local climate variables and identifying local impacts of climate variability (e.g., ENSO) on weather and water conditions. In addition to LCAT, NWS, working in partnership with the North East Regional Climate center, released xmACIS version 2, a climate data mining tool, for NWS field operations. During this talk we will demonstrate LCAT and xmACIS as well as outline several examples of their application to DSS and its potential use for achieving GFCS goals. The examples include LCAT-based temperature analysis for energy decisions, guidance on weather and water events leading to increased algal blooms and red tide months in advance, local climate sensitivities to droughts, probabilities of hot/cold conditions and their potential impacts on agriculture and fish kills or fish stress.

  4. Teaching the Tools of Pharmaceutical Care Decision-Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rittenhouse, Brian E.

    1994-01-01

    A method of decision-analysis in pharmaceutical care that integrates epidemiology and economics is presented, including an example illustrating both the deceptive nature of medical decision making and the power of decision analysis. Principles in determining both general and specific probabilities of interest and use of decision trees for…

  5. Development and description of a decision analysis based decision support tool for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Thomson, R.; Robinson, A.; Greenaway, J.; Lowe, P.

    2002-01-01

    Background: There is an increasing move towards clinical decision making that engages the patient, which has led to the development and use of decision aids to support better decisions. The treatment of patients in atrial fibrillation (AF) with warfarin to prevent stroke is a decision that is sensitive to patient preferences as shown by a previous decision analysis. Aim: To develop a computerised decision support tool, building upon a previous decision analysis, which would engage individual patient preferences in reaching a shared decision on whether to take warfarin to prevent stroke. Methods: The development process had two main phases: (1) the development phase which employed focus groups and repeated interviews with GPs/practice nurses and patients alongside an iterative development of a computerised tool; (2) the training and testing phase in which GPs and practice nurses underwent training in the use of the tool, including the use of simulated patients. The tool was then used in a feasibility study in a small number of patients with AF to inform the design of a subsequent randomised controlled trial. Results: The prototype tool had three components: (1) derivation of an individual patient's values for relevant health states using a standard gamble; (2) presentation/discussion of a patient's risks of stroke using the Framingham equation and the benefits/risks of warfarin from a systematic literature review; and (3) decision making component incorporating the outcome of a Markov decision analysis model. Older patients could be taken through the decision analysis based computerised tool, and patients and clinicians welcomed information on risks and benefits of treatments. The tool required time and training to use. Patients' decisions in the feasibility phase did not necessarily coincide with the output of the decision analysis model, but decision conflict appeared to be reduced and both patients and GPs were satisfied with the process. Conclusions: It is

  6. Risk-based maintenance--techniques and applications.

    PubMed

    Arunraj, N S; Maiti, J

    2007-04-11

    Plant and equipment, however well designed, will not remain safe or reliable if it is not maintained. The general objective of the maintenance process is to make use of the knowledge of failures and accidents to achieve the possible safety with the lowest possible cost. The concept of risk-based maintenance was developed to inspect the high-risk components usually with greater frequency and thoroughness and to maintain in a greater manner, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Risk-based maintenance methodology provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure of equipment and the consequences of failure. In this paper, the risk analysis and risk-based maintenance methodologies were identified and classified into suitable classes. The factors affecting the quality of risk analysis were identified and analyzed. The applications, input data and output data were studied to understand their functioning and efficiency. The review showed that there is no unique way to perform risk analysis and risk-based maintenance. The use of suitable techniques and methodologies, careful investigation during the risk analysis phase, and its detailed and structured results are necessary to make proper risk-based maintenance decisions.

  7. Techniques and Tools Providing Strategic Decision Support: A Framework, Review, and Guidelines

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-07-01

    very much by the actual decision makers, for a number of reasons: (i) some of them are too artificial , using models and language that are too abstract...individually scaled. o The tool insists that the decision maker performs artificial tradeoffs between cri- teria, while the decision maker wants to...which the decision maker considers artificial , rather in the language he or she would naturally use in comparing alter- natives and reaching a decision

  8. Decision graphs: a tool for developing real-time software

    SciTech Connect

    Kozubal, A.J.

    1981-01-01

    The use of decision graphs in the preparation of, in particular, real-time software is briefly described. The usefulness of decision graphs in software design, testing, and maintenance is pointed out. 2 figures. (RWR)

  9. A DECISION SUPPORT TOOL (DST) FOR DISPOSAL OF ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Symposium Paper AFTER A BUILDING OR WATER TREATMENT/DISTRIBUTION FACILITY HAS GONE THROUGH DECONTAMINATION ACTIVITIES FOLLOWING A CONTAMINATION EVENT WITH CHEMICAL/BIOLOGICAL WARFARE AGENTS OR TOXIC INDUSTRIAL CHEMICAL, THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL MATERIAL AND WASTE TO BE DISPOSED. A CONTAMINATION EVENT COULD OCCUR FROM TERRORIST ACTIVITY OR FROM A NATURAL DISASTER SUCH AS THE RECENT HURRICANE EVENTS IN THE GULF COAST WHERE MOLD AND POLLUTANTS FROM DAMAGED CHEMICAL AND INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES HAVE RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT QUANTITIES OF CONTAMINATED MATERIALS. IT iS LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THIS MATERIAL WILL BE DISPOSED OF IN PERMITTED LANDFILLS OR HIGH TEMPERATURE THERMAL INCINERATION FACILITIES. DATA HAS BEEN COLLECTED FROM THE OPEN LITERATURE, FROM STATE AND FEDERAL REGULATORY AGENCIES, AND FROM WASTE MANAGEMENT AND WATER UTILITY INDUSTRY STAKEHOLDER GROUPS, TO DEVELOP TECHNICAL GUIDANCE FOR DISPOSAL OF THESe RESIDUES. THE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE, AND OLD INFORMATION (SUCH AS CONTACT INFORMATION FOR KEY PERSONNEL) CHANGES. THE PRiMARY AUDIENCE FOR THIS TOOL WILL BE: 1) EMERGENCY RESPONSE AUTHORITIES WHO HAVE TO DECIDE THE MOST APPROPRIATE DECONTAMINATION METHODS AND DISPOSAL OF THE RESULTING RESIDUES; 2)STATE AND LOCAL PERMITTING AGENCIES, WHO HAVE TO MAKE DECISIONS ABOUT WHICH FACILITIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO DISPOSE OF THE MATERIALS: AND 3) THE WASTE MANAGEMENT AND WATER UTILITY INDUSTRY, THAT NEEDS TO SAFELY DISPOSE OF DECONTAMINATION RESIDUE

  10. Decision support and data warehousing tools boost competitive advantage.

    PubMed

    Waldo, B H

    1998-01-01

    The ability to communicate across the care continuum is fast becoming an integral component of the successful health enterprise. As integrated delivery systems are formed and patient care delivery is restructured, health care professionals must be able to distribute, access, and evaluate information across departments and care settings. The Aberdeen Group, a computer and communications research and consulting organization, believes that "the single biggest challenge for next-generation health care providers is to improve on how they consolidate and manage information across the continuum of care. This involves building a strategic warehouse of clinical and financial information that can be shared and leveraged by health care professionals, regardless of the location or type of care setting" (Aberdeen Group, Inc., 1997). The value and importance of data and systems integration are growing. Organizations that create a strategy and implement DSS tools to provide decision-makers with the critical information they need to face the competition and maintain quality and costs will have the advantage.

  11. Development and commissioning of decision support tools for sewerage management.

    PubMed

    Manic, G; Printemps, C; Zug, M; Lemoine, C

    2006-01-01

    Managing sewerage systems is a highly complex task due to the dynamic nature of the facilities. Their performance strongly depends on the know-how applied by the operators. In order to define optimal operational settings, two decision support tools based on mathematical models have been developed. Moreover, easy-to-use interfaces have been created as well, aiding operators who presumably do not have the necessary skills to use modelling software. The two developed programs simulate the behaviour of both wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and sewer network systems, respectively. They have essentially the same structure, including raw data management and statistical analysis, a simulation layer using the application programming interface of the applied software and a layer responsible for the representation of the obtained results. Four user modes are provided in the two software including the simulation of historical data using the applied and novel operational settings, as well as modes concerning prediction of possible operation periods and updates. Concerning the WWTP software, it was successfully installed in Nantes (France) in June 2004. Moreover, the one managing sewer networks has been deployed in Saint-Malo (France) in January 2005. This paper presents the structure of the developed software and the first results obtained during the commissioning phase.

  12. FRAMEWORK FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION-MAKING, FRED: A TOOL FOR ENVIRONMENTALLY-PREFERABLE PURCHASING

    EPA Science Inventory

    In support of the Environmentally Preferable Purchasing Program of the US EPA, the Systems Analysis Branch has developed a decision-making tool based on life cycle assessment. This tool, the Framework for Responsible Environmental Decision-making or FRED streamlines LCA by choosi...

  13. FRAMEWORK FOR RESPONSIBLE DECISION-MAKING (FRED): A TOOL FOR ENVIRONMENTALLY PREFERABLE PRODUCTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    In support of the Environmentally Preferable Purchasing Program of the USEPA, a decision-making tool based on life cycle assessment has been developed. This tool, the Framework for Responsible Environmental Decision-making or FRED, streamlines LCA by choosing a minimum list of im...

  14. Decision Support Tool Prototype for the Enlistment Incentive Review Board: Phase 2

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-07-01

    51 ARMY ENLISTMENT INCENTIVE REVIEW BOARD DECISION SUPPORT TOOL .........53 Introduction ...50 ARMY ENLISTMENT INCENTIVE REVIEW BOARD DECISION SUPPORT TOOL Introduction One of the objectives of this...application to travel demand. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Bierlaire, M. (2003). An introduction to BIOGEME (Version 1.3) http://roso.epfl.ch/biogeme

  15. Career toolbox - the decision paper: A tool to facilitate decision-making

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, J.L.; Petersen, T.P.

    1996-11-12

    Guidelines for writing a decision paper are presented. The purpose of the decision paper is to present complex issues in an organized format; it is especially helpful when timeliness is important. The writing style and format of the decision paper are described. The format for a decision paper includes the issue or problem statement, relevant background material, options or alternatives, discussion, recommendation, coordination/endorsement, and record of decision.

  16. Small-group decision making can be effective management tool.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, R

    1978-01-01

    One of the key components of effective management is the ability to make decisions. To more effectively assist hospital supervisors and managers in dealing with and making appropriate judgments, educators need to examine carefully the processes involved in decision making and how they impact on both the individual and the group. The following discussion of structured small-group decision making is adapted from an independent study of the literature undertaken by this author to dissect these processes and how they impact on the decisions made.

  17. Knowledge Visualizations: A Tool to Achieve Optimized Operational Decision Making and Data Integration

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-06-01

    and pedigree possess additive implications toward the quality of the data utilized within the DSS. F. SUMMARY Decision - making theories such as...VISUALIZATIONS: A TOOL TO ACHIEVE OPTIMIZED OPERATIONAL DECISION MAKING AND DATA INTEGRATION by Paul C. Hudson Jeffrey A. Rzasa June 2015 Thesis...TOOL TO ACHIEVE OPTIMIZED OPERATIONAL DECISION MAKING AND DATA INTEGRATION 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Paul C. Hudson, and Jeffrey A. Rzasa

  18. A decision tool for selecting trench cap designs

    SciTech Connect

    Paige, G.B.; Stone, J.J.; Lane, L.J.

    1995-12-31

    A computer based prototype decision support system (PDSS) is being developed to assist the risk manager in selecting an appropriate trench cap design for waste disposal sites. The selection of the {open_quote}best{close_quote} design among feasible alternatives requires consideration of multiple and often conflicting objectives. The methodology used in the selection process consists of: selecting and parameterizing decision variables using data, simulation models, or expert opinion; selecting feasible trench cap design alternatives; ordering the decision variables and ranking the design alternatives. The decision model is based on multi-objective decision theory and uses a unique approach to order the decision variables and rank the design alternatives. Trench cap designs are evaluated based on federal regulations, hydrologic performance, cover stability and cost. Four trench cap designs, which were monitored for a four year period at Hill Air Force Base in Utah, are used to demonstrate the application of the PDSS and evaluate the results of the decision model. The results of the PDSS, using both data and simulations, illustrate the relative advantages of each of the cap designs and which cap is the {open_quotes}best{close_quotes} alternative for a given set of criteria and a particular importance order of those decision criteria.

  19. Information and Decision Superiority: Right Concept, Right Tools, Right Training

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-01-01

    individual services, and numerous defense contractors have spoken of " information dominance " and "information superiority." Both, particularly the former...technologies will offer an unimaginable level of information to decision makers and operators. Ideas of information dominance , however, are fundamentally...other futuristic sensors will offer an unimaginable level of information to decision makers and operators. Ideas of information dominance , however

  20. Wind Prediction Accuracy for Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cole, Rod; Green, Steve; Jardin, Matt; Schwartz, Barry; Benjamin, Stan

    2000-01-01

    The performance of Air Traffic Management and flight deck decision support tools depends in large part on the accuracy of the supporting 4D trajectory predictions. This is particularly relevant to conflict prediction and active advisories for the resolution of conflicts and the conformance with of traffic-flow management flow-rate constraints (e.g., arrival metering / required time of arrival). Flight test results have indicated that wind prediction errors may represent the largest source of trajectory prediction error. The tests also discovered relatively large errors (e.g., greater than 20 knots), existing in pockets of space and time critical to ATM DST performance (one or more sectors, greater than 20 minutes), are inadequately represented by the classic RMS aggregate prediction-accuracy studies of the past. To facilitate the identification and reduction of DST-critical wind-prediction errors, NASA has lead a collaborative research and development activity with MIT Lincoln Laboratories and the Forecast Systems Lab of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This activity, begun in 1996, has focussed on the development of key metrics for ATM DST performance, assessment of wind-prediction skill for state of the art systems, and development/validation of system enhancements to improve skill. A 13 month study was conducted for the Denver Center airspace in 1997. Two complementary wind-prediction systems were analyzed and compared to the forecast performance of the then standard 60 km Rapid Update Cycle - version 1 (RUC-1). One system, developed by NOAA, was the prototype 40-km RUC-2 that became operational at NCEP in 1999. RUC-2 introduced a faster cycle (1 hr vs. 3 hr) and improved mesoscale physics. The second system, Augmented Winds (AW), is a prototype en route wind application developed by MITLL based on the Integrated Terminal Wind System (ITWS). AW is run at a local facility (Center) level, and updates RUC predictions based on an

  1. Using ITP Decision Tools to Save Energy Now

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2006-02-01

    This DOE Industrial Technologies Program fact sheet describes how the program's software tools and information help manufacturers save energy and money, increase productivity, and improve reliability.

  2. System and method for integrating hazard-based decision making tools and processes

    DOEpatents

    Hodgin, C Reed [Westminster, CO

    2012-03-20

    A system and method for inputting, analyzing, and disseminating information necessary for identified decision-makers to respond to emergency situations. This system and method provides consistency and integration among multiple groups, and may be used for both initial consequence-based decisions and follow-on consequence-based decisions. The system and method in a preferred embodiment also provides tools for accessing and manipulating information that are appropriate for each decision-maker, in order to achieve more reasoned and timely consequence-based decisions. The invention includes processes for designing and implementing a system or method for responding to emergency situations.

  3. Designing Tools for Supporting User Decision-Making in e-Commerce

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutcliffe, Alistair; Al-Qaed, Faisal

    The paper describes a set of tools designed to support a variety of user decision-making strategies. The tools are complemented by an online advisor so they can be adapted to different domains and users can be guided to adopt appropriate tools for different choices in e-commerce, e.g. purchasing high-value products, exploring product fit to users’ needs, or selecting products which satisfy requirements. The tools range from simple recommenders to decision support by interactive querying and comparison matrices. They were evaluated in a scenario-based experiment which varied the users’ task and motivation, with and without an advisor agent. The results show the tools and advisor were effective in supporting users and agreed with the predictions of ADM (adaptive decision making) theory, on which the design of the tools was based.

  4. In search of tools to aid logical thinking and communicating about medical decision making.

    PubMed

    Hunink, M G

    2001-01-01

    To have real-time impact on medical decision making, decision analysts need a wide variety of tools to aid logical thinking and communication. Decision models provide a formal framework to integrate evidence and values, but they are commonly perceived as complex and difficult to understand by those unfamiliar with the methods, especially in the context of clinical decision making. The theory of constraints, introduced by Eliyahu Goldratt in the business world, provides a set of tools for logical thinking and communication that could potentially be useful in medical decision making. The author used the concept of a conflict resolution diagram to analyze the decision to perform carotid endarterectomy prior to coronary artery bypass grafting in a patient with both symptomatic coronary and asymptomatic carotid artery disease. The method enabled clinicians to visualize and analyze the issues, identify and discuss the underlying assumptions, search for the best available evidence, and use the evidence to make a well-founded decision. The method also facilitated communication among those involved in the care of the patient. Techniques from fields other than decision analysis can potentially expand the repertoire of tools available to support medical decision making and to facilitate communication in decision consults.

  5. Computer-based tools for decision support at the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect

    Doctor, P.G.; Mahaffey, J.A.; Cowley, P.J.; Freshley, M.D.; Hassig, N.L.; Brothers, J.W.; Glantz, C.S.; Strachan, D.M.

    1992-11-01

    To help integrate activities in the environmental restoration and waste management mission of the Hanford Site, the Hanford Integrated Planning Project (HIPP) was established and funded by the US Department of Energy. The project is divided into three key program elements, the first focusing on an explicit, defensible and comprehensive method for evaluating technical options. Based on the premise that computer technology can be used to support the decision-making process and facilitate integration among programs and activities, the Decision Support Tools Task was charged with assessing the status of computer technology for those purposes at the Site. The task addressed two types of tools: tools need to provide technical information and management support tools. Technical tools include performance and risk assessment models, information management systems, data and the computer infrastructure to supports models, data, and information management systems. Management decision support tools are used to synthesize information at a high` level to assist with making decisions. The major conclusions resulting from the assessment are that there is much technical information available, but it is not reaching the decision-makers in a form to be used. Many existing tools provide components that are needed to integrate site activities; however, some components are missing and, more importantly, the ``glue`` or connections to tie the components together to answer decision-makers questions is largely absent. Top priority should be given to decision support tools that support activities given in the TPA. Other decision tools are needed to facilitate and support the environmental restoration and waste management mission.

  6. Computer-based tools for decision support at the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect

    Doctor, P.G.; Mahaffey, J.A.; Cowley, P.J.; Freshley, M.D.; Hassig, N.L.; Brothers, J.W.; Glantz, C.S.; Strachan, D.M.

    1992-11-01

    To help integrate activities in the environmental restoration and waste management mission of the Hanford Site, the Hanford Integrated Planning Project (HIPP) was established and funded by the US Department of Energy. The project is divided into three key program elements, the first focusing on an explicit, defensible and comprehensive method for evaluating technical options. Based on the premise that computer technology can be used to support the decision-making process and facilitate integration among programs and activities, the Decision Support Tools Task was charged with assessing the status of computer technology for those purposes at the Site. The task addressed two types of tools: tools need to provide technical information and management support tools. Technical tools include performance and risk assessment models, information management systems, data and the computer infrastructure to supports models, data, and information management systems. Management decision support tools are used to synthesize information at a high' level to assist with making decisions. The major conclusions resulting from the assessment are that there is much technical information available, but it is not reaching the decision-makers in a form to be used. Many existing tools provide components that are needed to integrate site activities; however, some components are missing and, more importantly, the glue'' or connections to tie the components together to answer decision-makers questions is largely absent. Top priority should be given to decision support tools that support activities given in the TPA. Other decision tools are needed to facilitate and support the environmental restoration and waste management mission.

  7. ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURE FINDER: A REMOTE SENSING DECISION SUPPORT TOOL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Land cover maps are essential to sound environmental stewardship and EPA’s mission to protect human health and the environment, but existing maps are not always sufficiently current, detailed, or appropriate for a given application. Consequently, we are developing a decision sup...

  8. The Integrated Medical Model: A Decision Support Tool for In-flight Crew Health Care

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butler, Doug

    2009-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the development of an Integrated Medical Model (IMM) decision support tool for in-flight crew health care safety. Clinical methods, resources, and case scenarios are also addressed.

  9. Data access and decision tools for coastal water resources management

    EPA Science Inventory

    US EPA has supported the development of numerous models and tools to support implementation of environmental regulations. However, transfer of knowledge and methods from detailed technical models to support practical problem solving by local communities and watershed or coastal ...

  10. ACED IT: A Tool for Improved Ethical and Moral Decision-Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kreitler, Crystal Mata; Stenmark, Cheryl K.; Rodarte, Allen M.; Piñón DuMond, Rebecca

    2014-01-01

    Numerous examples of unethical organizational decision-making highlighted in the media have led many to question the general moral perception and ethical judgments of individuals. The present study examined two forms of a straightforward ethical decision-making (EDM) tool (ACED IT cognitive map) that could be a relatively simple instrument for…

  11. Distance-Based and Distributed Learning: A Decision Tool for Education Leaders.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGraw, Tammy M.; Ross, John D.

    This decision tool presents a progression of data collection and decision-making strategies that can increase the effectiveness of distance-based or distributed learning instruction. A narrative and flow chart cover the following steps: (1) basic assumptions, including purpose of instruction, market scan, and financial resources; (2) needs…

  12. Assessing Sustainability of Coral Reef Ecosystem Services using a Spatially-Explicit Decision Support Tool

    EPA Science Inventory

    Forecasting and communicating the potential outcomes of decision options requires support tools that aid in evaluating alternative scenarios in a user-friendly context and that highlight variables relevant to the decision options and valuable stakeholders. Envision is a GIS-base...

  13. A Web-Based Tool to Support Data-Based Early Intervention Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buzhardt, Jay; Greenwood, Charles; Walker, Dale; Carta, Judith; Terry, Barbara; Garrett, Matthew

    2010-01-01

    Progress monitoring and data-based intervention decision making have become key components of providing evidence-based early childhood special education services. Unfortunately, there is a lack of tools to support early childhood service providers' decision-making efforts. The authors describe a Web-based system that guides service providers…

  14. Risk-based Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Apostolakis, G.; Catton, I.; Issacci, F.; Paulos, T.; Jones, S.; Paxton, K.; Paul, M.

    1992-01-01

    Viewgraphs on risk-based spacecraft fire safety experiments are presented. Spacecraft fire risk can never be reduced to a zero probability. Probabilistic risk assessment is a tool to reduce risk to an acceptable level.

  15. Decision Analysis Tool to Compare Energy Pathways for Transportation

    SciTech Connect

    Bloyd, Cary N.; Stork, Kevin

    2011-02-01

    With the goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, oil imports, and energy costs, a wide variety of automotive technologies are proposed to replace the traditional gasoline-powered internal combustion engine (g-ICE). A prototype model, Analytica Transportation Energy Analysis Model (ATEAM), has been developed using the Analytica decision modeling environment, visualizing the structure as a hierarchy of influence diagrams. The report summarized the FY2010 ATEAM accomplishments.

  16. THE COATINGS GUIDE: AN INTEGRATED TOOL FOR COATINGS DECISIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Coatings Guide, formerly known as the Coatings Alternative Guide (CAGE), is a free Internet pollution prevention tool designed to help small-business coaters of metal and plastic substrates identify alternatives as potential drop-in replacements for existing operations. As sh...

  17. Doing Academic Planning: Effective Tools for Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nedwek, Brian P., Ed.

    This sourcebook was designed to provide academic planners with the tools to perform core functions and activities that facilitate the transformation of higher education institutions from provider-centered cultures and organizations to learner-centered franchises. The readings examine partnerships and alliances needed for higher education to…

  18. Developing shape analysis tools to assist complex spatial decision making

    SciTech Connect

    Mackey, H.E.; Ehler, G.B.; Cowen, D.

    1996-05-31

    The objective of this research was to develop and implement a shape identification measure within a geographic information system, specifically one that incorporates analytical modeling for site location planning. The application that was developed incorporated a location model within a raster-based GIS, which helped address critical performance issues for the decision support system. Binary matrices, which approximate the object`s geometrical form, are passed over the grided data structure and allow identification of irregular and regularly shaped objects. Lastly, the issue of shape rotation is addressed and is resolved by constructing unique matrices corresponding to the object`s orientation

  19. Use of decision support systems as a drought management tool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frevert, D.; Lins, H.; ,

    2005-01-01

    Droughts present a unique challenge to water managers throughout the world and the current drought in the western United States is taxing facilities to the limit. Coping with this severe drought requires state of the art decision support systems including efficient and accurate hydrologic process models, detailed hydrologic data bases and effective river systems management modeling frameworks. This paper will outline a system of models developed by the Bureau of Reclamation, the US Geological Survey, the University of Colorado and a number of other governmental and university partners. The application of the technology to drought management in several key western river basins will be discussed.

  20. Enhancement of the EPA Stormwater BMP Decision-Support Tool (SUSTAIN)

    EPA Science Inventory

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been developing and improving a decision-support tool for placement of stormwater best management practices (BMPs) at strategic locations in urban watersheds. The tool is called the System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Analysis...

  1. Enhancement of the EPA Stormwater BMP Decision-Support Tool (SUSTAIN) - slides

    EPA Science Inventory

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been developing and improving a decision-support tool for placement of stormwater best management practices (BMPs) at strategic locations in urban watersheds. The tool is called the System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Analysis...

  2. U.S. CASE STUDIES USING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper provides an overview of some case studies using the recently completed muniicpal solid waste decision support tool (MSW-DST) in communities across the U.S. The purpose of the overview is to help illustrate the variety of potential applications of the tool. The methodolo...

  3. Lean production tools and decision latitude enable conditions for innovative learning in organizations: a multilevel analysis.

    PubMed

    Fagerlind Ståhl, Anna-Carin; Gustavsson, Maria; Karlsson, Nadine; Johansson, Gun; Ekberg, Kerstin

    2015-03-01

    The effect of lean production on conditions for learning is debated. This study aimed to investigate how tools inspired by lean production (standardization, resource reduction, visual monitoring, housekeeping, value flow analysis) were associated with an innovative learning climate and with collective dispersion of ideas in organizations, and whether decision latitude contributed to these associations. A questionnaire was sent out to employees in public, private, production and service organizations (n = 4442). Multilevel linear regression analyses were used. Use of lean tools and decision latitude were positively associated with an innovative learning climate and collective dispersion of ideas. A low degree of decision latitude was a modifier in the association to collective dispersion of ideas. Lean tools can enable shared understanding and collective spreading of ideas, needed for the development of work processes, especially when decision latitude is low. Value flow analysis played a pivotal role in the associations.

  4. Energy Signal Tool for Decision Support in Building Energy Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Henze, G. P.; Pavlak, G. S.; Florita, A. R.; Dodier, R. H.; Hirsch, A. I.

    2014-12-01

    A prototype energy signal tool is demonstrated for operational whole-building and system-level energy use evaluation. The purpose of the tool is to give a summary of building energy use which allows a building operator to quickly distinguish normal and abnormal energy use. Toward that end, energy use status is displayed as a traffic light, which is a visual metaphor for energy use that is either substantially different from expected (red and yellow lights) or approximately the same as expected (green light). Which light to display for a given energy end use is determined by comparing expected to actual energy use. As expected, energy use is necessarily uncertain; we cannot choose the appropriate light with certainty. Instead, the energy signal tool chooses the light by minimizing the expected cost of displaying the wrong light. The expected energy use is represented by a probability distribution. Energy use is modeled by a low-order lumped parameter model. Uncertainty in energy use is quantified by a Monte Carlo exploration of the influence of model parameters on energy use. Distributions over model parameters are updated over time via Bayes' theorem. The simulation study was devised to assess whole-building energy signal accuracy in the presence of uncertainty and faults at the submetered level, which may lead to tradeoffs at the whole-building level that are not detectable without submetering.

  5. Enhancement of LEEDS Decision Tools for E-Craft

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-03-13

    Manager (ONR 33X) ONR Office ofNaval Research 875 North Randolph Street 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT Arlington, VA 22203-1995 NUMBERIS) Ref: N00014-07-M...13, 2012 Prepared for: Office of Naval Research Award No. N00014-07-M-0127 March 13, 2012 Systems Modernization and Sustainment...Architecture of a Context‐based Diagnostic Tool  Due to lack of support and interest from the E-Craft team, research efforts were redirected toward the

  6. Sea Level Rise Decision Support Tools for Adaptation Planning in Vulnerable Coastal Communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozum, J. S.; Marcy, D.

    2015-12-01

    NOAA is involved in a myriad of climate related research and projects that help decision makers and the public understand climate science as well as climate change impacts. The NOAA Office for Coastal Management (OCM) provides data, tools, trainings and technical assistance to coastal resource managers. Beginning in 2011, NOAA OCM began developing a sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts viewer which provides nationally consistent data sets and analyses to help communities with coastal management goals such as: understanding and communicating coastal flood hazards, performing vulnerability assessments and increasing coastal resilience, and prioritizing actions for different inundation/flooding scenarios. The Viewer is available on NOAA's Digital Coast platform: (coast.noaa.gov/ditgitalcoast/tools/slr). In this presentation we will share the lessons learned from our work with coastal decision-makers on the role of coastal flood risk data and tools in helping to shape future land use decisions and policies. We will also focus on a recent effort in California to help users understand the similarities and differences of a growing array of sea level rise decision support tools. NOAA staff and other partners convened a workshop entitled, "Lifting the Fog: Bringing Clarity to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change Models and Tools," which was attended by tool develops, science translators and coastal managers with the goal to create a collaborative communication framework to help California coastal decision-makers navigate the range of available sea level rise planning tools, and to inform tool developers of future planning needs. A sea level rise tools comparison matrix will be demonstrated. This matrix was developed as part of this effort and has been expanded to many other states via a partnership with NOAA, Climate Central, and The Nature Conservancy.

  7. Augmented cognition tool for rapid military decision making.

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, Shawn Ellis; Bernard, Michael Lewis; Verzi, Stephen J.; Dubicka, Irene; Vineyard, Craig Michael

    2011-10-01

    This report describes the laboratory directed research and development work to model relevant areas of the brain that associate multi-modal information for long-term storage for the purpose of creating a more effective, and more automated, association mechanism to support rapid decision making. Using the biology and functionality of the hippocampus as an analogy or inspiration, we have developed an artificial neural network architecture to associate k-tuples (paired associates) of multimodal input records. The architecture is composed of coupled unimodal self-organizing neural modules that learn generalizations of unimodal components of the input record. Cross modal associations, stored as a higher-order tensor, are learned incrementally as these generalizations form. Graph algorithms are then applied to the tensor to extract multi-modal association networks formed during learning. Doing so yields a novel approach to data mining for knowledge discovery. This report describes the neurobiological inspiration, architecture, and operational characteristics of our model, and also provides a real world terrorist network example to illustrate the model's functionality.

  8. DECIDE: a Decision Support Tool to Facilitate Parents' Choices Regarding Genome-Wide Sequencing.

    PubMed

    Birch, Patricia; Adam, S; Bansback, N; Coe, R R; Hicklin, J; Lehman, A; Li, K C; Friedman, J M

    2016-12-01

    We describe the rationale, development, and usability testing for an integrated e-learning tool and decision aid for parents facing decisions about genome-wide sequencing (GWS) for their children with a suspected genetic condition. The online tool, DECIDE, is designed to provide decision-support and to promote high quality decisions about undergoing GWS with or without return of optional incidental finding results. DECIDE works by integrating educational material with decision aids. Users may tailor their learning by controlling both the amount of information and its format - text and diagrams and/or short videos. The decision aid guides users to weigh the importance of various relevant factors in their own lives and circumstances. After considering the pros and cons of GWS and return of incidental findings, DECIDE summarizes the user's responses and apparent preferred choices. In a usability study of 16 parents who had already chosen GWS after conventional genetic counselling, all participants found DECIDE to be helpful. Many would have been satisfied to use it alone to guide their GWS decisions, but most would prefer to have the option of consulting a health care professional as well to aid their decision. Further testing is necessary to establish the effectiveness of using DECIDE as an adjunct to or instead of conventional pre-test genetic counselling for clinical genome-wide sequencing.

  9. Decision-support tools for the assessment process

    SciTech Connect

    Whelan, Gene; Pelton, Mitch A.; Dorow, Kevin E.

    2004-06-14

    A new software system is under development that provides a framework to link disparate assessment software and databases for site-specific, regional, or national analyses. This system represents the merger of the Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES), which performs site-specific assessments, and Multi-media, Multi-pathway, Multi-receptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) methodology, which performs regional and national assessments. This Merged System is an icon-driven, site-layout platform, which represents an interactive means by which the user graphically constructs a conceptualization of the problem by visually expressing the assessment, indicating sources of contamination, contaminant travel pathways through the environment, linkages between contamination and people or wildlife, and impacts associated with the contamination. It processes data as part of a systems-based assessment and is an open-architecture, object-oriented framework, which contains ''sockets'' for a collection of databases and computer codes that will transparently simulate elements of transport, exposure, and risk assessment, including contaminant source and release to and through overland soils, vadose and saturated zones, air, surface water, food supply, intake human health impacts, sensitivity/uncertainty, ecological impacts, with the ability to expand into areas including Geographical Information System (GIS), remediation technology, cost analysis, Data Quality Objectives, life-cycle management, and conceptual site design. A user can choose from a list of models, and the assessment path forward can be visually presented, which describes the models and their linkages from source through receptor to the decision-making endpoint.

  10. Designing a Graphical Decision Support Tool to Improve System Acquisition Decisions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-06-01

    acquisition decision through the Internet . It also allows organizations to search for buyers or sellers of systems. It has been identified that the...following things : ♦ Be equipped with an adjustable head-mounted eye tracker. The eye tracker will be explained and calibrated. ♦ Complete a baseline...p. 47-62. 7. Mukhopadhyay, T. and S. Kekre, Strategic and Operational Benefits of Electronic Integration in B2B Procurement Processes. Management

  11. Data access and decision tools for coastal water resources ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    US EPA has supported the development of numerous models and tools to support implementation of environmental regulations. However, transfer of knowledge and methods from detailed technical models to support practical problem solving by local communities and watershed or coastal management organizations remains a challenge. We have developed the Estuary Data Mapper (EDM) to facilitate data discovery, visualization and access to support environmental problem solving for coastal watersheds and estuaries. EDM is a stand-alone application based on open-source software which requires only internet access for operation. Initially, development of EDM focused on delivery of raw data streams from distributed web services, ranging from atmospheric deposition to hydrologic, tidal, and water quality time series, estuarine habitat characteristics, and remote sensing products. We have transitioned to include access to value-added products which provide end-users with results of future scenario analysis, facilitate extension of models across geographic regions, and/or promote model interoperability. Here we present three examples: 1) the delivery of input data for the development of seagrass models across estuaries, 2) scenarios illustrating the implications of riparian buffer management (loss or restoration) for stream thermal regimes and fish communities, and 3) access to hydrology model outputs to foster connections across models at different scales, ultimately feeding

  12. Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies’ business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and “what-if” scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results. PMID:26871694

  13. Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model.

    PubMed

    Damij, Nadja; Boškoski, Pavle; Bohanec, Marko; Mileva Boshkoska, Biljana

    2016-01-01

    The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies' business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and "what-if" scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results.

  14. Testing an Irrigation Decision Support Tool for California Specialty Crops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, L.; Cahn, M.; Benzen, S.; Zaragoza, I.; Murphy, L.; Melton, F. S.; Martin, F.; Quackenbush, A.; Lockhart, T.

    2015-12-01

    Estimation of crop evapotranspiration supports efficiency of irrigation water management, which in turn can mitigate nitrate leaching, groundwater depletion, and provide energy savings. Past research in California and elsewhere has revealed strong relationships between photosynthetically active vegetation fraction (Fc) and crop evapotranspiration (ETc). Additional research has shown the potential of monitoring Fc by satellite remote sensing. The U.C. Cooperative Extension developed and operates CropManage (CM) as on-line database irrigation (and nitrogen) scheduling tool. CM accounts for the rapid growth and typically brief cycle of cool-season vegetables, where Fc and fraction of reference ET can change daily during canopy development. The model automates crop water requirement calculations based on reference ET data collected by California Dept. Water Resources. Empirically-derived equations are used to estimate daily Fc time-series for a given crop type primarily as a function of planting date and expected harvest date. An application programming interface (API) is under development to provide a check on modeled Fc of current crops and facilitate CM expansion to new crops. The API will enable CM to extract field scale Fc observations from NASA's Satellite Irrigation Management Support (SIMS). SIMS is mainly Landsat based and currently monitors Fc over about 8 million irrigation acres statewide, with potential for adding data from ESA/Sentinel for improved temporal resolution. In the current study, a replicated irrigation trial was performed on romaine lettuce at the USDA Agricultural Research Station in Salinas, CA. CropManage recommendations were used to guide water treatments by drip irrigation at 50%, 75%, 100% ETc replacement levels, with an added treatment at 150% ET representing grower standard practice. Experimental results indicate that yields from the 100% and 150% treatments were not significantly different and were in-line with industry average, while

  15. Do choosing wisely tools meet criteria for patient decision aids? A descriptive analysis of patient materials

    PubMed Central

    Légaré, France; Hébert, Jessica; Goh, Larissa; Lewis, Krystina B; Leiva Portocarrero, Maria Ester; Robitaille, Hubert; Stacey, Dawn

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Choosing Wisely is a remarkable physician-led campaign to reduce unnecessary or harmful health services. Some of the literature identifies Choosing Wisely as a shared decision-making approach. We evaluated the patient materials developed by Choosing Wisely Canada to determine whether they meet the criteria for shared decision-making tools known as patient decision aids. Design Descriptive analysis of all Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials. Data source In May 2015, we selected all Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials from its official website. Main outcomes and measures Four team members independently extracted characteristics of the English materials using the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS) modified 16-item minimum criteria for qualifying and certifying patient decision aids. The research team discussed discrepancies between data extractors and reached a consensus. Descriptive analysis was conducted. Results Of the 24 patient materials assessed, 12 were about treatments, 11 were about screening and 1 was about prevention. The median score for patient materials using IPDAS criteria was 10/16 (range: 8–11) for screening topics and 6/12 (range: 6–9) for prevention and treatment topics. Commonly missed criteria were stating the decision (21/24 did not), providing balanced information on option benefits/harms (24/24 did not), citing evidence (24/24 did not) and updating policy (24/24 did not). Out of 24 patient materials, only 2 met the 6 IPDAS criteria to qualify as patient decision aids, and neither of these 2 met the 6 certifying criteria. Conclusions Patient materials developed by Choosing Wisely Canada do not meet the IPDAS minimal qualifying or certifying criteria for patient decision aids. Modifications to the Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials would help to ensure that they qualify as patient decision aids and thus as more effective shared decision-making tools. PMID:27566638

  16. User Acceptance of a Software Tool for Decision Making in IT Outsourcing: A Qualitative Study in Large Companies from Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andresen, Christoffer; Hodosi, Georg; Saprykina, Irina; Rusu, Lazar

    Decisions for IT outsourcing are very complex and needs to be supported by considerations based on many (multiple) criteria. In order to facilitate the use of a specific tool by a decision-maker in IT outsourcing, we need to find out whether such a tool for this purpose will be accepted or rejected or what improvements must be added to this tool to be accepted by some IT decision makers in large companies from Sweden.

  17. A streamlined sustainability assessment tool for improved decision making in the urban water industry.

    PubMed

    Schulz, Matthias; Short, Michael D; Peters, Gregory M

    2012-01-01

    Water supply is a key consideration in sustainable urban planning. Ideally, detailed quantitative sustainability assessments are undertaken during the planning stage to inform the decision-making process. In reality, however, the significant time and cost associated with undertaking such detailed environmental and economic assessments is often cited as a barrier to wider implementation of these key decision support tools, particularly for decisions made at the local or regional government level. In an attempt to overcome this barrier of complexity, 4 water service providers in Melbourne, Australia, funded the development of a publicly available streamlined Environmental Sustainability Assessment Tool, which is aimed at a wide range of decision makers to assist them in broadening the type and number of water servicing options that can be considered for greenfield or backlog developments. The Environmental Sustainability Assessment Tool consists of a simple user interface and draws on life cycle inventory data to allow for rapid estimation of the environmental and economic performance of different water servicing scenarios. Scenario options can then be further prioritized by means of an interactive multicriteria analysis. The intent of this article is to identify the key issues to be considered in a streamlined sustainability assessment tool for the urban water industry, and to demonstrate the feasibility of generating accurate life cycle assessments and life cycle costings, using such a tool. We use a real-life case study example consisting of 3 separate scenarios for a planned urban development to show that this kind of tool can emulate life cycle assessments and life cycle costings outcomes obtained through more detailed studies. This simplified approach is aimed at supporting "sustainability thinking" early in the decision-making process, thereby encouraging more sustainable water and sewerage infrastructure solutions.

  18. CorRECTreatment: A Web-based Decision Support Tool for Rectal Cancer Treatment that Uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Decision Tree

    PubMed Central

    Karakülah, G.; Dicle, O.; Sökmen, S.; Çelikoğlu, C.C.

    2015-01-01

    Summary Background The selection of appropriate rectal cancer treatment is a complex multi-criteria decision making process, in which clinical decision support systems might be used to assist and enrich physicians’ decision making. Objective The objective of the study was to develop a web-based clinical decision support tool for physicians in the selection of potentially beneficial treatment options for patients with rectal cancer. Methods The updated decision model contained 8 and 10 criteria in the first and second steps respectively. The decision support model, developed in our previous study by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method which determines the priority of criteria and decision tree that formed using these priorities, was updated and applied to 388 patients data collected retrospectively. Later, a web-based decision support tool named corRECTreatment was developed. The compatibility of the treatment recommendations by the expert opinion and the decision support tool was examined for its consistency. Two surgeons were requested to recommend a treatment and an overall survival value for the treatment among 20 different cases that we selected and turned into a scenario among the most common and rare treatment options in the patient data set. Results In the AHP analyses of the criteria, it was found that the matrices, generated for both decision steps, were consistent (consistency ratio<0.1). Depending on the decisions of experts, the consistency value for the most frequent cases was found to be 80% for the first decision step and 100% for the second decision step. Similarly, for rare cases consistency was 50% for the first decision step and 80% for the second decision step. Conclusions The decision model and corRECTreatment, developed by applying these on real patient data, are expected to provide potential users with decision support in rectal cancer treatment processes and facilitate them in making projections about treatment options

  19. A Cross-National CAI Tool To Support Learning Operations Decision-Making and Market Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mockler, Robert J.; Afanasiev, Mikhail Y.; Dologite, Dorothy G.

    1999-01-01

    Describes bicultural (United States and Russia) development of a computer-aided instruction (CAI) tool to learn management decision-making using information systems technologies. The program has been used with undergraduate and graduate students in both countries; it integrates free and controlled market concepts and combines traditional computer…

  20. "Budget impact analyses": a practical policy making tool for drug reimbursement decisions.

    PubMed

    Jamshidi, Hamid Reza; Foroutan, Naghmeh; Salamzadeh, Jamshid

    2014-01-01

    In the present article, Budget Impact Analysis as an effective, practical financial tool has been introduced to the policy makers for improving drug formulary and reimbursement decision making. In Iran, Ministry of Health (MOH), health insurance organizations, and health care providers such as hospitals could take the most advantage of the BIAs reports.

  1. Decision-Support Tools and Databases to Inform Regional Stormwater Utility Development in New England

    EPA Science Inventory

    Development of stormwater utilities requires information on existing stormwater infrastructure and impervious cover as well as costs and benefits of stormwater management options. US EPA has developed a suite of databases and tools that can inform decision-making by regional sto...

  2. An Engineering Educator's Decision Support Tool for Improving Innovation in Student Design Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ozaltin, Nur Ozge; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary; Clark, Renee M.

    2015-01-01

    Learning how to design innovatively is a critical process skill for undergraduate engineers in the 21st century. To this end, our paper discusses the development and validation of a Bayesian network decision support tool that can be used by engineering educators to make recommendations that positively impact the innovativeness of product designs.…

  3. DEVELOPMENT OF PROTOCOLS AND DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS FOR ASSESSING WATERSHED SYSTEM ASSIMILATIVE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Investigations are underway on Lake Texoma, a Corps of Engineers lake on the Oklahoma/Texas border, to develop decision support tools and information to evaluate the transport and attenuation of contaminants and stressors in a lake ecosystem, and link them to observable ecologica...

  4. The Integrated Medical Model - A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles G.; Saile, Lynn; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

    2010-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight.

  5. Decision Support Tool For Optimizing Best Management Practices In The US Corn Belt

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Direct measurements combined with system modeling are used to estimate the impacts of management practices on crop yields and soil organic carbon (SOC). We developed a decision support tool that integrates the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model with soil, climate, land use, and man...

  6. APPLICATION OF THE US DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR MATERIALS AND WASTE MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA¿s National Risk Management Research Laboratory has led the development of a municipal solid waste decision support tool (MSW-DST). The computer software can be used to calculate life-cycle environmental tradeoffs and full costs of different waste management plans or recycling...

  7. End of Asset Life Reinvestment Decision Support Tool (INFR2R11AT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This “End of Asset Life” Reinvestment Decision-Support Tool is intended as a step by step guide for the asset management practitioner who faces the challenge of developing an investment strategy that represents the best integration of maintenance, operations, and capital investme...

  8. Development of a forecasting tool to guide field management decisions related to fertilizer and manure

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Managing the timing of fertilizer and manure application is critical to protecting water quality in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. While modern nutrient management tools are designed to help farmers with their long-term field management planning, they do not support daily decisions on when and where...

  9. A Decision Support Prototype Tool for Predicting Student Performance in an ODL Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kotsiantis, S. B.; Pintelas, P. E.

    2004-01-01

    Machine Learning algorithms fed with data sets which include information such as attendance data, test scores and other student information can provide tutors with powerful tools for decision-making. Until now, much of the research has been limited to the relation between single variables and student performance. Combining multiple variables as…

  10. Clarity versus complexity: land-use modeling as a practical tool for decision-makers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sohl, Terry L.; Claggett, Peter R.

    2013-01-01

    The last decade has seen a remarkable increase in the number of modeling tools available to examine future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change. Integrated modeling frameworks, agent-based models, cellular automata approaches, and other modeling techniques have substantially improved the representation of complex LULC systems, with each method using a different strategy to address complexity. However, despite the development of new and better modeling tools, the use of these tools is limited for actual planning, decision-making, or policy-making purposes. LULC modelers have become very adept at creating tools for modeling LULC change, but complicated models and lack of transparency limit their utility for decision-makers. The complicated nature of many LULC models also makes it impractical or even impossible to perform a rigorous analysis of modeling uncertainty. This paper provides a review of land-cover modeling approaches and the issues causes by the complicated nature of models, and provides suggestions to facilitate the increased use of LULC models by decision-makers and other stakeholders. The utility of LULC models themselves can be improved by 1) providing model code and documentation, 2) through the use of scenario frameworks to frame overall uncertainties, 3) improving methods for generalizing key LULC processes most important to stakeholders, and 4) adopting more rigorous standards for validating models and quantifying uncertainty. Communication with decision-makers and other stakeholders can be improved by increasing stakeholder participation in all stages of the modeling process, increasing the transparency of model structure and uncertainties, and developing user-friendly decision-support systems to bridge the link between LULC science and policy. By considering these options, LULC science will be better positioned to support decision-makers and increase real-world application of LULC modeling results.

  11. A software tool to assist business-process decision-making in the biopharmaceutical industry.

    PubMed

    Mustafa, Mustafa A; Washbrook, John; Lim, Ai Chye; Zhou, Yuhong; Titchener-Hooker, Nigel J; Morton, Philip; Berezenko, Steve; Farid, Suzanne S

    2004-01-01

    Conventionally, software tools for the design of bioprocesses have provided only limited business-related information for decision-making. There is an industrial need to investigate manufacturing options and to gauge the impact of various decisions from economic as well as process perspectives. This paper describes the development and use of a tool to provide an assessment of whole flowsheets by capturing both process and business aspects. The tool is demonstrated by considering the issues concerned when making decisions between two potential flowsheets for a common product. A case study approach is used to compare the process and business benefits of a conventional process route employing packed chromatography beds and an alternative that uses expanded bed adsorption (EBA). The tool allows direct evaluation of the benefits of capital cost reduction and increased yield offered by EBA against penalties of using potentially more expensive EBA matrix with lower lifetimes. Furthermore, the tool provides the ability to gauge the process robustness of each flowsheet option.

  12. Informed public choices for low-carbon electricity portfolios using a computer decision tool.

    PubMed

    Mayer, Lauren A Fleishman; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Morgan, M Granger

    2014-04-01

    Reducing CO2 emissions from the electricity sector will likely require policies that encourage the widespread deployment of a diverse mix of low-carbon electricity generation technologies. Public discourse informs such policies. To make informed decisions and to productively engage in public discourse, citizens need to understand the trade-offs between electricity technologies proposed for widespread deployment. Building on previous paper-and-pencil studies, we developed a computer tool that aimed to help nonexperts make informed decisions about the challenges faced in achieving a low-carbon energy future. We report on an initial usability study of this interactive computer tool. After providing participants with comparative and balanced information about 10 electricity technologies, we asked them to design a low-carbon electricity portfolio. Participants used the interactive computer tool, which constrained portfolio designs to be realistic and yield low CO2 emissions. As they changed their portfolios, the tool updated information about projected CO2 emissions, electricity costs, and specific environmental impacts. As in the previous paper-and-pencil studies, most participants designed diverse portfolios that included energy efficiency, nuclear, coal with carbon capture and sequestration, natural gas, and wind. Our results suggest that participants understood the tool and used it consistently. The tool may be downloaded from http://cedmcenter.org/tools-for-cedm/informing-the-public-about-low-carbon-technologies/ .

  13. Early Engagement of Safety and Mission Assurance Expertise Using Systems Engineering Tools: A Risk-Based Approach to Early Identification of Safety and Assurance Requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Darpel, Scott; Beckman, Sean

    2016-01-01

    Decades of systems engineering practice have demonstrated that the earlier the identification of requirements occurs, the lower the chance that costly redesigns will needed later in the project life cycle. A better understanding of all requirements can also improve the likelihood of a design's success. Significant effort has been put into developing tools and practices that facilitate requirements determination, including those that are part of the model-based systems engineering (MBSE) paradigm. These efforts have yielded improvements in requirements definition, but have thus far focused on a design's performance needs. The identification of safety & mission assurance (S&MA) related requirements, in comparison, can occur after preliminary designs are already established, yielding forced redesigns. Engaging S&MA expertise at an earlier stage, facilitated by the use of MBSE tools, and focused on actual project risk, can yield the same type of design life cycle improvements that have been realized in technical and performance requirements.

  14. Developing and validating a practical decision support tool (DST) for biomass selection on marginal land.

    PubMed

    Andersson-Sköld, Y; Bardos, P; Chalot, M; Bert, V; Crutu, G; Phanthavongsa, P; Delplanque, M; Track, T; Cundy, A B

    2014-12-01

    Marginal, often contaminated, sites exist in large areas across the world as a result of historic activities such as industry, transportation and mineral extraction. Remediation, or other improvements, of these sites is typically only considered for sites with high exploitation pressure and those posing the highest risks to human health or the environment. At the same time there is increasing competition for land resources for different needs such as biofuel production. Potentially some of this land requirement could be met by production of biomass on brownfield or other marginal land, thereby improving the land while applying the crop cultivation as part of an integrated management strategy. The design and decision making for such a strategy will be site specific. A decision support framework, the Rejuvenate DST (decision support tool) has been developed with the aim of supporting such site specific decision making. This tool is presented here, and has been tested by applying it to a number of case study sites. The consequent SWOT (strength, weakness, opportunities and threats) analysis is discussed and evaluated. The DST was found to be systematic, transparent, and applicable for diverse sites in France, Romania and Sweden, in addition to the sites to which it was applied through its development. The DST is regarded as especially useful if applied as a checklist in an iterative way throughout the decision process, from identifying potential crops to identifying knowledge gaps, working/non-working management strategies and potential risks. The DST also provides a structure promoting effective stakeholder engagement.

  15. A spatial multicriteria decision making tool to define the best agricultural areas for sewage sludge amendment.

    PubMed

    Passuello, Ana; Cadiach, Oda; Perez, Yolanda; Schuhmacher, Marta

    2012-01-01

    Sewage sludge amendment on agricultural soils has recently become a practice of heightened interest, as a consequence of sewage sludge production increase. This practice has benefits to soil and crops, however it may also lead to environmental contamination, depending on the characteristics of the fields. In order to define the suitability of the different agricultural fields to receive sewage sludge, a spatial tool is proposed. This tool, elaborated in GIS platform, aggregates different criteria regarding human exposure and environmental contamination. The spatial tool was applied to a case study in the region of Catalonia (NE of Spain). Within the case study, each step of the tool development is detailed. The results show that the studied region has different suitability degrees, being the appropriate areas sufficient for receiving the total amount of sewage sludge produced. The sensitivity analysis showed that "groundwater contamination", "distance to urban areas", "metals concentration in soil" and "crop type" are the most important criteria of the evaluation. The developed tool successfully tackled the problem, providing a comprehensive procedure to evaluate agricultural land suitability to receive sewage sludge as an organic fertilizer. Also, the tool implementation gives insights to decision makers, guiding them to more confident decisions, based on an extensive group of criteria.

  16. Flexible decision-making relative to reward quality and tool functionality in Goffin cockatoos (Cacatua goffiniana)

    PubMed Central

    Laumer, I. B.; Bugnyar, T.; Auersperg, A. M. I.

    2016-01-01

    Decisions involving the use of tools may require an agent to consider more levels of relational complexity than merely deciding between an immediate and a delayed option. Using a new experimental approach featuring two different types of tools, two apparatuses as well as two different types of reward, we investigated the Goffin cockatoos’ ability to make flexible and profitable decisions within five different setups. Paralleling previous results in primates, most birds overcame immediate drives in favor of future gains; some did so even if tool use involved additional work effort. Furthermore, at the group level subjects maximized their profit by simultaneously considering both the quality of an immediate versus a delayed food reward (accessible with a tool) and the functionality of the available tool. As their performance levels remained stable across trials in all testing setups, this was unlikely the result of a learning effect. The Goffin cockatoos’ ability to focus on relevant information was constrained when all task components (both food qualities, both apparatuses and both tools) were presented at the same time. PMID:27334699

  17. Electromechanical mapping of the left ventricle: possible tool for online decision making in the catheterization laboratory.

    PubMed

    Tan, Eng S; Jessurun, Gillian Aj; Anthonio, Rutger L; Slart, Riemer Hja; Zijlstra, Felix; Tio, René A

    2009-05-01

    Clinical decision making in intervention cardiology often depends on information about the presence of myocardial viability and the extent of ischemia. Especially in the case of an occluded collaterally filled coronary branch, online decision making in selected patients may accelerate and improve patient care. The electromechanical NOGA mapping system offers the opportunity for online viability assessment. We describe two cases in which this diagnostic tool was used during daily practice. In our opinion, NOGA mapping can be helpful for 'online' viability evaluation in patients with an occluded collaterally filled coronary artery. In these patients, noninvasive viability evaluation may cause unnecessary delay in the overall treatment approach.

  18. Using an Electronic Decision Support Tool to Reduce Inappropriate Polypharmacy and Optimize Medicines: Rationale and Methods

    PubMed Central

    Tordoff, June; Dovey, Susan; Reith, David; Lloyd, Hywel; Tilyard, Murray; Smith, Alesha

    2016-01-01

    Background Polypharmacy and inappropriate continuation of medicines can lead to a significant risk of adverse drug events and drug interactions with patient harm and escalating health care costs as a result. Thorough review of patients’ medications focusing on the need for each drug can reduce the potential for harm. Limitations in performing effective medicine reviews in practice include consultation time constraints and funding for pharmacy services. We will aim to overcome these problems by designing an automatic electronic decision support tool (the medicines optimization/review and evaluation (MORE) module) that is embedded in general practice electronic records systems. The tool will focus on medicines optimization and reducing polypharmacy to aid prescribers in reviewing medicines and improve patient outcomes. Objective The objectives of this study are: (1) to develop an electronic decision support tool to assist prescribers in performing clinical medication reviews with a particular focus on patients experiencing multimorbidity and polypharmacy, and (2) evaluate and assess the use of the electronic decision support tool, providing pilot data on its usefulness in supporting prescribers during consultations with patients. Methods The first three study phases involve development of clinical rules outlining clinical interventions and the creation and validation of the MORE decision support tool. Phase four is a community-based, single-blind, prospective, 6-month controlled trial involving two interventions and two control general practices, matched for practice demographics. We will be measuring the number of times prescribers engage with the tool, total number of interventions suggested by the tool, and total number of times prescribers change medicines in response to recommendations. There will also be prospective follow-up of patients in the intervention group to examine whether changes to medications are upheld, and to determine the number of

  19. LCA-IWM: a decision support tool for sustainability assessment of waste management systems.

    PubMed

    den Boer, J; den Boer, E; Jager, J

    2007-01-01

    The paper outlines the most significant result of the project 'The use of life cycle assessment tools for the development of integrated waste management strategies for cities and regions with rapid growing economies', which was the development of two decision-support tools: a municipal waste prognostic tool and a waste management system assessment tool. The article focuses on the assessment tool, which supports the adequate decision making in the planning of urban waste management systems by allowing the creation and comparison of different scenarios, considering three basic subsystems: (i) temporary storage; (ii) collection and transport and (iii) treatment, disposal and recycling. The design and analysis options, as well as the assumptions made for each subsystem, are shortly introduced, providing an overview of the applied methodologies and technologies. The sustainability assessment methodology used in the project to support the selection of the most adequate scenario is presented with a brief explanation of the procedures, criteria and indicators applied on the evaluation of each of the three sustainability pillars.

  20. Design and Implementation of a Cloud Computing Adoption Decision Tool: Generating a Cloud Road.

    PubMed

    Bildosola, Iñaki; Río-Belver, Rosa; Cilleruelo, Ernesto; Garechana, Gaizka

    2015-01-01

    Migrating to cloud computing is one of the current enterprise challenges. This technology provides a new paradigm based on "on-demand payment" for information and communication technologies. In this sense, the small and medium enterprise is supposed to be the most interested, since initial investments are avoided and the technology allows gradual implementation. However, even if the characteristics and capacities have been widely discussed, entry into the cloud is still lacking in terms of practical, real frameworks. This paper aims at filling this gap, presenting a real tool already implemented and tested, which can be used as a cloud computing adoption decision tool. This tool uses diagnosis based on specific questions to gather the required information and subsequently provide the user with valuable information to deploy the business within the cloud, specifically in the form of Software as a Service (SaaS) solutions. This information allows the decision makers to generate their particular Cloud Road. A pilot study has been carried out with enterprises at a local level with a two-fold objective: to ascertain the degree of knowledge on cloud computing and to identify the most interesting business areas and their related tools for this technology. As expected, the results show high interest and low knowledge on this subject and the tool presented aims to readdress this mismatch, insofar as possible.

  1. LCA-IWM: A decision support tool for sustainability assessment of waste management systems

    SciTech Connect

    Boer, J. den Boer, E. den; Jager, J.

    2007-07-01

    The paper outlines the most significant result of the project 'The use of life cycle assessment tools for the development of integrated waste management strategies for cities and regions with rapid growing economies', which was the development of two decision-support tools: a municipal waste prognostic tool and a waste management system assessment tool. The article focuses on the assessment tool, which supports the adequate decision making in the planning of urban waste management systems by allowing the creation and comparison of different scenarios, considering three basic subsystems: (i) temporary storage; (ii) collection and transport and (iii) treatment, disposal and recycling. The design and analysis options, as well as the assumptions made for each subsystem, are shortly introduced, providing an overview of the applied methodologies and technologies. The sustainability assessment methodology used in the project to support the selection of the most adequate scenario is presented with a brief explanation of the procedures, criteria and indicators applied on the evaluation of each of the three sustainability pillars.

  2. Design and Implementation of a Cloud Computing Adoption Decision Tool: Generating a Cloud Road

    PubMed Central

    Bildosola, Iñaki; Río-Belver, Rosa; Cilleruelo, Ernesto; Garechana, Gaizka

    2015-01-01

    Migrating to cloud computing is one of the current enterprise challenges. This technology provides a new paradigm based on “on-demand payment” for information and communication technologies. In this sense, the small and medium enterprise is supposed to be the most interested, since initial investments are avoided and the technology allows gradual implementation. However, even if the characteristics and capacities have been widely discussed, entry into the cloud is still lacking in terms of practical, real frameworks. This paper aims at filling this gap, presenting a real tool already implemented and tested, which can be used as a cloud computing adoption decision tool. This tool uses diagnosis based on specific questions to gather the required information and subsequently provide the user with valuable information to deploy the business within the cloud, specifically in the form of Software as a Service (SaaS) solutions. This information allows the decision makers to generate their particular Cloud Road. A pilot study has been carried out with enterprises at a local level with a two-fold objective: to ascertain the degree of knowledge on cloud computing and to identify the most interesting business areas and their related tools for this technology. As expected, the results show high interest and low knowledge on this subject and the tool presented aims to readdress this mismatch, insofar as possible. PMID:26230400

  3. Verification and Validation of NASA-Supported Enhancements to Decision Support Tools of PECAD

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ross, Kenton W.; McKellip, Rodney; Moore, Roxzana F.; Fendley, Debbie

    2005-01-01

    This section of the evaluation report summarizes the verification and validation (V&V) of recently implemented, NASA-supported enhancements to the decision support tools of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD). The implemented enhancements include operationally tailored Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and products of the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (GRLM). The MODIS products are currently made available through two separate decision support tools: the MODIS Image Gallery and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Database. Both the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor and MODIS Image Gallery provide near-real-time products through PECAD's CropExplorer. This discussion addresses two areas: 1. Assessments of the standard NASA products on which these enhancements are based. 2. Characterizations of the performance of the new operational products.

  4. Developing an Atrial Fibrillation Guideline Support Tool (AFGuST) for Shared Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Eckman, Mark H.; Wise, Ruth E.; Naylor, Katherine; Arduser, Lora; Lip, Gregory Y.H.; Kissela, Brett; Flaherty, Matthew; Kleindorfer, Dawn; Khan, Faisal; Schauer, Daniel P.; Kues, John; Costea, Alexandru

    2015-01-01

    Objective Patient values and preferences are an important component to decision making when tradeoffs exist that impact quality of life, such as tradeoffs between stroke prevention and hemorrhage in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) contemplating anticoagulant therapy. Our objective is to describe the development of an Atrial Fibrillation Guideline Support Tool (AFGuST) to assist the process of integrating patients’ preferences into this decision. Materials and Methods CHA2DS2VASc and HAS-BLED were used to calculate risks for stroke and hemorrhage. We developed a Markov decision analytic model as a computational “engine” to integrate patient-specific risk for stroke and hemorrhage and individual patient values for relevant outcomes in decisions about anticoagulant therapy. Results Individual patient preferences for health-related outcomes may have greater or lesser impact on the choice of optimal antithrombotic therapy, depending upon the balance of patient-specific risks for ischemic stroke and major bleeding. These factors have been incorporated into patient-tailored booklets which, along with an informational video were developed through an iterative process with clinicians and patient focus groups. Key Limitations Current risk prediction models for hemorrhage, such as the HAS-BLED, used in the AFGuST, do not incorporate all potentially significant risk factors. Novel oral anticoagulant agents recently approved for use in the United States, Canada, and Europe have not been included in the AFGuST. Rather, warfarin has been used as a conservative proxy for all oral anticoagulant therapy. Conclusions We present a proof of concept that a patient-tailored decision-support tool could bridge the gap between guidelines and practice by incorporating individual patient’s stroke and bleeding risks and their values for major bleeding events and stroke to facilitate a shared decision making process. If effective, the AFGuST could be used as an adjunct to

  5. Acquisition Program Lead Systems Integration/Lead Capabilities Integration Decision Support Methodology and Tool

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-04-30

    Decision Support Methodology and Tool Theodore Delbo, NAWCAD Darryl Thrasher, Lone Star Aerospace, Inc. Jennifer Deaton, Lone Star Analysis...offices in evaluating the relative risks of utilizing NAWCAD and commercial OEMs for various LSI roles and responsibilities. Lone Star Aerospace Inc...professional. [theodore.delbo@navy.mil] Darryl Thrasher—is the Manager/Engagement Lead, Lone Star Aerospace Inc., and has over 30 years of operations and

  6. A Coastal Flood Decision Support Tool for Forecast Operations in Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Breukelen, C. M.; Moore, A.; Plumb, E. W.

    2015-12-01

    ABSTRACT Coastal flooding and erosion poses a serious threat to infrastructure, livelihood, and property for communities along Alaska's northern and western coastline. While the National Weather Service Alaska Region (NWS-AR) forecasts conditions favorable for coastal flooding, an improvement can be made in communicating event impacts between NWS-AR and local residents. Scientific jargon used by NWS-AR to indicate the severity of flooding potential is often misconstrued by residents. Additionally, the coastal flood forecasting process is cumbersome and time consuming due to scattered sources of flood guidance. To alleviate these problems, a single coastal flooding decision support tool was created for the Fairbanks Weather Forecast Office to help bridge the communication gap, streamline the forecast and warning process, and take into account both the meteorological and socioeconomic systems at work during a flood event. This tool builds on previous research and data collected by the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys (DGGS) and the NWS-AR, using high resolution elevation data to model the impacts of storm tide rise above the mean lower low water level on five of the most at-risk communities along the Alaskan coast. Important local buildings and infrastructure are highlighted, allowing forecasters to relate the severity of the storm tide in terms of local landmarks that are familiar to residents. In this way, this decision support tool allows for a conversion from model output storm tide levels into real world impacts that are easily understood by forecasters, emergency managers, and other stakeholders, helping to build a Weather-Ready Nation. An overview of the new coastal flood decision support tool in NWS-AR forecast operations will be discussed. KEYWORDS Forecasting; coastal flooding; coastal hazards; decision support

  7. Evaluation of Algorithms for a Miles-in-Trail Decision Support Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bloem, Michael; Hattaway, David; Bambos, Nicholas

    2012-01-01

    Four machine learning algorithms were prototyped and evaluated for use in a proposed decision support tool that would assist air traffic managers as they set Miles-in-Trail restrictions. The tool would display probabilities that each possible Miles-in-Trail value should be used in a given situation. The algorithms were evaluated with an expected Miles-in-Trail cost that assumes traffic managers set restrictions based on the tool-suggested probabilities. Basic Support Vector Machine, random forest, and decision tree algorithms were evaluated, as was a softmax regression algorithm that was modified to explicitly reduce the expected Miles-in-Trail cost. The algorithms were evaluated with data from the summer of 2011 for air traffic flows bound to the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) over the ARD, PENNS, and SHAFF fixes. The algorithms were provided with 18 input features that describe the weather at EWR, the runway configuration at EWR, the scheduled traffic demand at EWR and the fixes, and other traffic management initiatives in place at EWR. Features describing other traffic management initiatives at EWR and the weather at EWR achieved relatively high information gain scores, indicating that they are the most useful for estimating Miles-in-Trail. In spite of a high variance or over-fitting problem, the decision tree algorithm achieved the lowest expected Miles-in-Trail costs when the algorithms were evaluated using 10-fold cross validation with the summer 2011 data for these air traffic flows.

  8. Decision support tool for soil sampling of heterogeneous pesticide (chlordecone) pollution.

    PubMed

    Clostre, Florence; Lesueur-Jannoyer, Magalie; Achard, Raphaël; Letourmy, Philippe; Cabidoche, Yves-Marie; Cattan, Philippe

    2014-02-01

    When field pollution is heterogeneous due to localized pesticide application, as is the case of chlordecone (CLD), the mean level of pollution is difficult to assess. Our objective was to design a decision support tool to optimize soil sampling. We analyzed the CLD heterogeneity of soil content at 0-30- and 30-60-cm depth. This was done within and between nine plots (0.4 to 1.8 ha) on andosol and ferralsol. We determined that 20 pooled subsamples per plot were a satisfactory compromise with respect to both cost and accuracy. Globally, CLD content was greater for andosols and the upper soil horizon (0-30 cm). Soil organic carbon cannot account for CLD intra-field variability. Cropping systems and tillage practices influence the CLD content and distribution; that is CLD pollution was higher under intensive banana cropping systems and, while upper soil horizon was more polluted than the lower one with shallow tillage (<40 cm), deeper tillage led to a homogenization and a dilution of the pollution in the soil profile. The decision tool we proposed compiles and organizes these results to better assess CLD soil pollution in terms of sampling depth, distance, and unit at field scale. It accounts for sampling objectives, farming practices (cropping system, tillage), type of soil, and topographical characteristics (slope) to design a relevant sampling plan. This decision support tool is also adaptable to other types of heterogeneous agricultural pollution at field level.

  9. Usability Testing and Adaptation of the Pediatric Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Clinical Decision Support Tool

    PubMed Central

    Furberg, Robert D; Bagwell, Jacqueline E; LaBresh, Kenneth A

    2016-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is 1 of the leading causes of death, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted years of life lost worldwide. CVD prevention for children and teens is needed, as CVD risk factors and behaviors beginning in youth contribute to CVD development. In 2012, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute released their “Integrated Guidelines for Cardiovascular Health and Risk Reduction in Children and Adolescents” for clinicians, describing CVD risk factors they should address with patients at primary care preventative visits. However, uptake of new guidelines is slow. Clinical decision support (CDS) tools can improve guideline uptake. In this paper, we describe our process of testing and adapting a CDS tool to help clinicians evaluate patient risk, recommend behaviors to prevent development of risk, and complete complex calculations to determine appropriate interventions as recommended by the guidelines, using a user-centered design approach. Objective The objective of the study was to assess the usability of a pediatric CVD risk factor tool by clinicians. Methods The tool was tested using one-on-one in-person testing and a “think aloud” approach with 5 clinicians and by using the tool in clinical practice along with formal usability metrics with 14 pediatricians. Thematic analysis of the data from the in-person testing and clinical practice testing identified suggestions for change in 3 major areas: user experience, content refinement, and technical deployment. Descriptive statistical techniques were employed to summarize users’ overall experience with the tool. Results Data from testers showed that general reactions toward the CDS tool were positive. Clinical practice testers suggested revisions to make the application more user-friendly, especially for clinicians using the application on the iPhone, and called for refining recommendations to be more succinct and better tailored to the patient. Tester feedback was

  10. Clean birth kits to improve birth practices: development and testing of a country level decision support tool

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Clean birth practices can prevent sepsis, one of the leading causes of both maternal and newborn mortality. Evidence suggests that clean birth kits (CBKs), as part of package that includes education, are associated with a reduction in newborn mortality, omphalitis, and puerperal sepsis. However, questions remain about how best to approach the introduction of CBKs in country. We set out to develop a practical decision support tool for programme managers of public health systems who are considering the potential role of CBKs in their strategy for care at birth. Methods Development and testing of the decision support tool was a three-stage process involving an international expert group and country level testing. Stage 1, the development of the tool was undertaken by the Birth Kit Working Group and involved a review of the evidence, a consensus meeting, drafting of the proposed tool and expert review. In Stage 2 the tool was tested with users through interviews (9) and a focus group, with federal and provincial level decision makers in Pakistan. In Stage 3 the findings from the country level testing were reviewed by the expert group. Results The decision support tool comprised three separate algorithms to guide the policy maker or programme manager through the specific steps required in making the country level decision about whether to use CBKs. The algorithms were supported by a series of questions (that could be administered by interview, focus group or questionnaire) to help the decision maker identify the information needed. The country level testing revealed that the decision support tool was easy to follow and helpful in making decisions about the potential role of CBKs. Minor modifications were made and the final algorithms are presented. Conclusion Testing of the tool with users in Pakistan suggests that the tool facilitates discussion and aids decision making. However, testing in other countries is needed to determine whether these results can be

  11. Inclusion of social indicators in decision support tools for the selection of sustainable site remediation options.

    PubMed

    Cappuyns, Valérie

    2016-12-15

    Sustainable remediation requires a balanced decision-making process in which environmental, economic and social aspects of different remediation options are all considered together and the optimum remediation solution is selected. More attention has been paid to the evaluation of environmental and economic aspects, in particular to reduce the human and environmental risks and the remediation costs, to the exclusion of social aspects of remediation. This paper investigates how social aspects are currently considered in sustainability assessments of remediation projects. A selection of decision support tools (DSTs), used for the sustainability assessment of a remediation project, is analyzed to define how social aspects are considered in those tools. The social indicator categories of the Sustainable Remediation Forum - United Kingdom (SuRF-UK), are used as a basis for this evaluation. The consideration of social aspects in the investigated decision support tools is limited, but a clear increase is noticed in more recently developed tools. Among the five social indicator categories defined by SuRF-UK to facilitate a holistic consideration of social aspects of a remediation project only "Human health and safety" is systematically taken into account. "Neighbourhood and locality" is also often addressed, mostly emphasizing the potential disturbance caused by the remediation activities. However, the evaluation of 'Ethics and Equality', Communities and community involvement', and 'Uncertainty and evidence' is often neglected. Nevertheless, concrete examples can be found in some of the investigated tools. Specific legislation, standard procedures, and guidelines that have to be followed in a region or country are mainly been set up in the context of protecting human and ecosystem health, safety and prevention of nuisance. However, they sometimes already include some of the aspects addressed by the social indicators. In this perspective the use of DST to evaluate the

  12. Examination of the effectiveness of DVD decision support tools for patients with unruptured cerebral aneurysms.

    PubMed

    Nozaki, Kazuhiko; Okubo, Chie; Yokoyama, Yoko; Morita, Akio; Akamatsu, Rie; Nakayama, Takeo; Fukuhara, Shun-ichi; Hashimoto, Nobuo

    2007-12-01

    Preventative treatments for unruptured cerebral aneurysms include craniotomy, endovascular treatment, and follow up. Since there is no agreement as to the best procedure, it is important to provide adequate information so that the patient and physician can share in the decision-making process. A multi-media DVD was created to inform patients of the facts. This study examined how effectively this DVD changes patients' recognition including knowledge of unruptured cerebral aneurysms. Forty-seven patients with unruptured cerebral aneurysms who sought neurosurgery consultation between December 2005 and February 2006 completed a questionnaire before and after watching the DVD, as well as at 3 months follow up. Before watching the DVD, the average knowledge score was 8.72 out of 15 total points. The average score increased to 12.4 after watching the DVD (p < 0.001). At 3 months follow up, the average score was 10.34, which was still higher than before watching the DVD (p < 0.01). Participants' knowledge about treatment methods also increased after watching the DVD (p < 0.001). Compared to 63.2% who were satisfied with their treatment decision before watching the DVD, 69.6% were satisfied with their decision after watching the DVD. All participants responded that the use of multi-media images was helpful in better understanding treatment options and in making informed decisions. The DVD was favorably accepted as a decision support tool by patients with unruptured cerebral aneurysm and effectively increased patients' knowledge.

  13. The role of risk-based prioritization in total quality management

    SciTech Connect

    Bennett, C.T.

    1994-10-01

    The climate in which government managers must make decisions grows more complex and uncertain. All stakeholders - the public, industry, and Congress - are demanding greater consciousness, responsibility, and accountability of programs and their budgets. Yet, managerial decisions have become multifaceted, involve greater risk, and operate over much longer time periods. Over the last four or five decades, as policy analysis and decisions became more complex, scientists from psychology, operations research, systems science, and economics have developed a more or less coherent process called decision analysis to aid program management. The process of decision analysis - a systems theoretic approach - provides the backdrop for this paper. The Laboratory Integrated Prioritization System (LIPS) has been developed as a systems analytic and risk-based prioritization tool to aid the management of the Tri-Labs` (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) operating resources. Preliminary analyses of the effects of LIPS has confirmed the practical benefits of decision and systems sciences - the systematic, quantitative reduction in uncertainty. To date, the use of LIPS - and, hence, its value - has been restricted to resource allocation within the Tri-Labs` operations budgets. This report extends the role of risk-based prioritization to the support of DOE Total Quality Management (TQM) programs. Furthermore, this paper will argue for the requirement to institutionalize an evolutionary, decision theoretic approach to the policy analysis of the Department of Energy`s Program Budget.

  14. A decision support tool to prioritize risk management options for contaminated sites.

    PubMed

    Sorvari, Jaana; Seppälä, Jyri

    2010-03-15

    The decisions on risk management (RM) of contaminated sites in Finland have typically been driven by practical factors such as time and money. However, RM is a multifaceted task that generally involves several additional determinants, e.g. performance and environmental effects of remediation methods, psychological and social factors. Therefore, we adopted a multi-criteria decision analysis approach and developed a decision support tool (DST) that is viable in decision-making in such a complex situation. The basic components of the DST are based on the Dutch REC system. However, our DST is more case-specific and allows the consideration of the type, magnitude and scale of contamination, land use, environmental conditions and socio-cultural aspects (e.g. loss of cultural heritage, image aspects). The construction of the DST was started by structuring the decision problem using a value tree. Based on this work we adopted the Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) for data aggregation. The final DST was demonstrated by two model sites for which the RM alternatives and site-specific data were created on the basis of factual remediation projects and by interviewing experts. The demonstration of the DST was carried out in a workshop where representatives of different stakeholders were requested to rank and weight the decision criteria involved. To get information on the consistency of the ranking of the RM alternatives, we used different weighting techniques (ratio estimation and pair-wise weighting) and alternative ways to treat individual respondents' weights in calculating the preference scores for each RM alternative. These dissimilar approaches resulted in some differences in the preference order of the RM alternatives. The demonstration showed that attention has to be paid to the proper description of the site, the principles of the procedure and the decision criteria. Nevertheless, the procedure proved to enable efficient communication between different stakeholders

  15. Effective dialogue: Enhanced public engagement as a legitimising tool for municipal waste management decision-making

    SciTech Connect

    Garnett, Kenisha; Cooper, Tim

    2014-12-15

    Highlights: • A review of public engagement in waste management decision-making is undertaken. • Enhanced public engagement is explored as a means to legitimise waste decisions. • Analytical–deliberative processes are explored as a tool for effective dialogue. • Considerations for integrating public values with technical analysis are outlined. • Insights into the design of appropriate public engagement processes are provided. - Abstract: The complexity of municipal waste management decision-making has increased in recent years, accompanied by growing scrutiny from stakeholders, including local communities. This complexity reflects a socio-technical framing of the risks and social impacts associated with selecting technologies and sites for waste treatment and disposal facilities. Consequently there is growing pressure on local authorities for stakeholders (including communities) to be given an early opportunity to shape local waste policy in order to encourage swift planning, development and acceptance of the technologies needed to meet statutory targets to divert waste from landfill. This paper presents findings from a research project that explored the use of analytical–deliberative processes as a legitimising tool for waste management decision-making. Adopting a mixed methods approach, the study revealed that communicating the practical benefits of more inclusive forms of engagement is proving difficult even though planning and policy delays are hindering development and implementation of waste management infrastructure. Adopting analytical–deliberative processes at a more strategic level will require local authorities and practitioners to demonstrate how expert-citizen deliberations may foster progress in resolving controversial issues, through change in individuals, communities and institutions. The findings suggest that a significant shift in culture will be necessary for local authorities to realise the potential of more inclusive decision

  16. Critical review of decision support tools for sustainability assessment of site remediation options.

    PubMed

    Huysegoms, Lies; Cappuyns, Valérie

    2017-03-10

    In Europe alone, there are more than 2,5 million potentially contaminated sites of which 14% are expected to require remediation. Contaminated soil and groundwater can cause damage to human health as well as to valuable ecosystems. Globally more attention has been paid to this problem of soil contamination in the past decades. For example, more than 58 000 sites have been remediated in Europe between 2006 and 2011. Together with this increase in remediation projects there has been a surge in the development of new remediation technologies and decision support tools to be able to match every site and its specific characteristics to the best possible remediation alternative. In the past years the development of decision support tools (DST) has evolved in a more sustainable direction. Several DSTs added the claim not only to denote effective or technologically and economically feasible remediation alternatives but also to point out the more or most sustainable remediation alternatives. These trends in the evaluation of site remediation options left users with a confusing clew of possibly applicable tools to assist them in decision making for contaminated site remediation. This review provides a structured overview on the extent decision support tools for contaminated site remediation, that claim to assist in choosing the most sustainable remediation alternative, actually include the different elements of sustainability proposed in our assessment framework. The review contains an in-depth analysis of thirteen tools specifically developed to assess the sustainability of site remediation alternatives. This analysis is based on six criteria derived from the definition of sustainable development of the Brundtland report. The six criteria were concretized by using the three pillars of sustainability, applied to site remediation according to the SuRF-UK framework, two criteria derived from Life Cycle Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis, and an 'User friendly' criterion

  17. Modeling Tool for Decision Support during Early Days of an Anthrax Event

    PubMed Central

    Meltzer, Martin I.; Shadomy, Sean; Bower, William A.; Hupert, Nathaniel

    2017-01-01

    Health officials lack field-implementable tools for forecasting the effects that a large-scale release of Bacillus anthracis spores would have on public health and hospitals. We created a modeling tool (combining inhalational anthrax caseload projections based on initial case reports, effects of variable postexposure prophylaxis campaigns, and healthcare facility surge capacity requirements) to project hospitalizations and casualties from a newly detected inhalation anthrax event, and we examined the consequences of intervention choices. With only 3 days of case counts, the model can predict final attack sizes for simulated Sverdlovsk-like events (1979 USSR) with sufficient accuracy for decision making and confirms the value of early postexposure prophylaxis initiation. According to a baseline scenario, hospital treatment volume peaks 15 days after exposure, deaths peak earlier (day 5), and recovery peaks later (day 23). This tool gives public health, hospital, and emergency planners scenario-specific information for developing quantitative response plans for this threat. PMID:27983505

  18. For Third Enrollment Period, Marketplaces Expand Decision Support Tools To Assist Consumers.

    PubMed

    Wong, Charlene A; Polsky, Daniel E; Jones, Arthur T; Weiner, Janet; Town, Robert J; Baker, Tom

    2016-04-01

    The design of the Affordable Care Act's online health insurance Marketplaces can improve how consumers make complex health plan choices. We examined the choice environment on the state-based Marketplaces and HealthCare.gov in the third open enrollment period. Compared to previous enrollment periods, we found greater adoption of some decision support tools, such as total cost estimators and integrated provider lookups. Total cost estimators differed in how they generated estimates: In some Marketplaces, consumers categorized their own utilization, while in others, consumers answered detailed questions and were assigned a utilization profile. The tools available before creating an account (in the window-shopping period) and afterward (in the real-shopping period) differed in several Marketplaces. For example, five Marketplaces provided total cost estimators to window shoppers, but only two provided them to real shoppers. Further research is needed on the impact of different choice environments and on which tools are most effective in helping consumers pick optimal plans.

  19. Formative assessment and design of a complex clinical decision support tool for pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Khan, Sundas; McCullagh, Lauren; Press, Anne; Kharche, Manish; Schachter, Andy; Pardo, Salvatore; McGinn, Thomas

    2016-02-01

    Electronic health record (EHR)-based clinical decision support (CDS) tools are rolled out with the urgency to meet federal requirements without time for usability testing and refinement of the user interface. As part of a larger project to design, develop and integrate a pulmonary embolism CDS tool for emergency physicians, we conducted a formative assessment to determine providers' level of interest and input on designs and content. This was a study to conduct a formative assessment of emergency medicine (EM) physicians that included focus groups and key informant interviews. The focus of this study was twofold, to determine the general attitude towards CDS tool integration and the ideal integration point into the clinical workflow. To accomplish this, we first approached EM physicians in a focus group, then, during key informant interviews, we presented workflow designs and gave a scenario to help the providers visualise how the CDS tool works. Participants were asked questions regarding the trigger location, trigger words, integration into their workflow, perceived utility and heuristic of the tool. Results from the participants' survey responses to trigger location, perceived utility and efficiency, indicated that the providers felt the tool would be more of a hindrance than an aid. However, some providers commented that they had not had exposure to CDS tools but had used online calculators, and thought the tools would be helpful at the point-of-care if integrated into the EHR. Furthermore, there was a preference for an order entry wireframe. This study highlights several factors to consider when designing CDS tools: (1) formative assessment of EHR functionality and clinical environment workflow, (2) focus groups and key informative interviews to incorporate providers' perceptions of CDS and workflow integration and/or (3) the demonstration of proposed workflows through wireframes to help providers visualise design concepts.

  20. Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

    2013-12-01

    Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban

  1. Stakeholder views of management and decision support tools to integrate climate change into Great Lakes Lake Whitefish management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lynch, Abigail J.; Taylor, William W.; McCright, Aaron M.

    2016-01-01

    Decision support tools can aid decision making by systematically incorporating information, accounting for uncertainties, and facilitating evaluation between alternatives. Without user buy-in, however, decision support tools can fail to influence decision-making processes. We surveyed fishery researchers, managers, and fishers affiliated with the Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis fishery in the 1836 Treaty Waters of Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior to assess opinions of current and future management needs to identify barriers to, and opportunities for, developing a decision support tool based on Lake Whitefish recruitment projections with climate change. Approximately 64% of 39 respondents were satisfied with current management, and nearly 85% agreed that science was well integrated into management programs. Though decision support tools can facilitate science integration into management, respondents suggest that they face significant implementation barriers, including lack of political will to change management and perceived uncertainty in decision support outputs. Recommendations from this survey can inform development of decision support tools for fishery management in the Great Lakes and other regions.

  2. A visualization tool to support decision making in environmental and biological planning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Romañach, Stephanie S.; McKelvy, James M.; Conzelmann, Craig; Suir, Kevin J.

    2014-01-01

    Large-scale ecosystem management involves consideration of many factors for informed decision making. The EverVIEW Data Viewer is a cross-platform desktop decision support tool to help decision makers compare simulation model outputs from competing plans for restoring Florida's Greater Everglades. The integration of NetCDF metadata conventions into EverVIEW allows end-users from multiple institutions within and beyond the Everglades restoration community to share information and tools. Our development process incorporates continuous interaction with targeted end-users for increased likelihood of adoption. One of EverVIEW's signature features is side-by-side map panels, which can be used to simultaneously compare species or habitat impacts from alternative restoration plans. Other features include examination of potential restoration plan impacts across multiple geographic or tabular displays, and animation through time. As a result of an iterative, standards-driven approach, EverVIEW is relevant to large-scale planning beyond Florida, and is used in multiple biological planning efforts in the United States.

  3. Integrated Decision-Making Tool to Develop Spent Fuel Strategies for Research Reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Beatty, Randy L; Harrison, Thomas J

    2016-01-01

    IAEA Member States operating or having previously operated a Research Reactor are responsible for the safe and sustainable management and disposal of associated radioactive waste, including research reactor spent nuclear fuel (RRSNF). This includes the safe disposal of RRSNF or the corresponding equivalent waste returned after spent fuel reprocessing. One key challenge to developing general recommendations lies in the diversity of spent fuel types, locations and national/regional circumstances rather than mass or volume alone. This is especially true given that RRSNF inventories are relatively small, and research reactors are rarely operated at a high power level or duration typical of commercial power plants. Presently, many countries lack an effective long-term policy for managing RRSNF. This paper presents results of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated Research Project (CRP) #T33001 on Options and Technologies for Managing the Back End of the Research Reactor Nuclear Fuel Cycle which includes an Integrated Decision Making Tool called BRIDE (Back-end Research reactor Integrated Decision Evaluation). This is a multi-attribute decision-making tool that combines the Total Estimated Cost of each life-cycle scenario with Non-economic factors such as public acceptance, technical maturity etc and ranks optional back-end scenarios specific to member states situations in order to develop a specific member state strategic plan with a preferred or recommended option for managing spent fuel from Research Reactors.

  4. Tools of the Future: How Decision Tree Analysis Will Impact Mission Planning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Otterstatter, Matthew R.

    2005-01-01

    The universe is infinitely complex; however, the human mind has a finite capacity. The multitude of possible variables, metrics, and procedures in mission planning are far too many to address exhaustively. This is unfortunate because, in general, considering more possibilities leads to more accurate and more powerful results. To compensate, we can get more insightful results by employing our greatest tool, the computer. The power of the computer will be utilized through a technology that considers every possibility, decision tree analysis. Although decision trees have been used in many other fields, this is innovative for space mission planning. Because this is a new strategy, no existing software is able to completely accommodate all of the requirements. This was determined through extensive research and testing of current technologies. It was necessary to create original software, for which a short-term model was finished this summer. The model was built into Microsoft Excel to take advantage of the familiar graphical interface for user input, computation, and viewing output. Macros were written to automate the process of tree construction, optimization, and presentation. The results are useful and promising. If this tool is successfully implemented in mission planning, our reliance on old-fashioned heuristics, an error-prone shortcut for handling complexity, will be reduced. The computer algorithms involved in decision trees will revolutionize mission planning. The planning will be faster and smarter, leading to optimized missions with the potential for more valuable data.

  5. Randomized Controlled Trial of a Video Decision Support Tool for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Decision Making in Advanced Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Volandes, Angelo E.; Paasche-Orlow, Michael K.; Mitchell, Susan L.; El-Jawahri, Areej; Davis, Aretha Delight; Barry, Michael J.; Hartshorn, Kevan L.; Jackson, Vicki Ann; Gillick, Muriel R.; Walker-Corkery, Elizabeth S.; Chang, Yuchiao; López, Lenny; Kemeny, Margaret; Bulone, Linda; Mann, Eileen; Misra, Sumi; Peachey, Matt; Abbo, Elmer D.; Eichler, April F.; Epstein, Andrew S.; Noy, Ariela; Levin, Tomer T.; Temel, Jennifer S.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Decision making regarding cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is challenging. This study examined the effect of a video decision support tool on CPR preferences among patients with advanced cancer. Patients and Methods We performed a randomized controlled trial of 150 patients with advanced cancer from four oncology centers. Participants in the control arm (n = 80) listened to a verbal narrative describing CPR and the likelihood of successful resuscitation. Participants in the intervention arm (n = 70) listened to the identical narrative and viewed a 3-minute video depicting a patient on a ventilator and CPR being performed on a simulated patient. The primary outcome was participants' preference for or against CPR measured immediately after exposure to either modality. Secondary outcomes were participants' knowledge of CPR (score range of 0 to 4, with higher score indicating more knowledge) and comfort with video. Results The mean age of participants was 62 years (standard deviation, 11 years); 49% were women, 44% were African American or Latino, and 47% had lung or colon cancer. After the verbal narrative, in the control arm, 38 participants (48%) wanted CPR, 41 (51%) wanted no CPR, and one (1%) was uncertain. In contrast, in the intervention arm, 14 participants (20%) wanted CPR, 55 (79%) wanted no CPR, and 1 (1%) was uncertain (unadjusted odds ratio, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.7 to 7.2; P < .001). Mean knowledge scores were higher in the intervention arm than in the control arm (3.3 ± 1.0 v 2.6 ± 1.3, respectively; P < .001), and 65 participants (93%) in the intervention arm were comfortable watching the video. Conclusion Participants with advanced cancer who viewed a video of CPR were less likely to opt for CPR than those who listened to a verbal narrative. PMID:23233708

  6. Benefits and limitations of using decision analytic tools to assess uncertainty and prioritize Landscape Conservation Cooperative information needs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Post van der Burg, Max; Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Nelson, Richard D.

    2016-01-01

    The Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of partnerships throughout North America that are tasked with integrating science and management to support more effective delivery of conservation at a landscape scale. In order to achieve this integration, some LCCs have adopted the approach of providing their partners with better scientific information in an effort to facilitate more effective and coordinated conservation decisions. Taking this approach has led many LCCs to begin funding research to provide the information for improved decision making. To ensure that funding goes to research projects with the highest likelihood of leading to more integrated broad scale conservation, some LCCs have also developed approaches for prioritizing which information needs will be of most benefit to their partnerships. We describe two case studies in which decision analytic tools were used to quantitatively assess the relative importance of information for decisions made by partners in the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC. The results of the case studies point toward a few valuable lessons in terms of using these tools with LCCs. Decision analytic tools tend to help shift focus away from research oriented discussions and toward discussions about how information is used in making better decisions. However, many technical experts do not have enough knowledge about decision making contexts to fully inform the latter type of discussion. When assessed in the right decision context, however, decision analyses can point out where uncertainties actually affect optimal decisions and where they do not. This helps technical experts understand that not all research is valuable in improving decision making. But perhaps most importantly, our results suggest that decision analytic tools may be more useful for LCCs as way of developing integrated objectives for coordinating partner decisions across the landscape, rather than simply ranking research priorities.

  7. Decision Support Tools Evaluation Report for FAS/PECAD, Version 2.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ross, Kenton; McKellip, Rodney; Mason, Ted; Zanoni, Vicki; Morris, Keith

    2004-01-01

    Global agricultral intelligence is a key element of decision support eithin the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Estimeates of production and yield issued by the USDA for both foreign and domestic agriculture are primary sources of information for policy and management decision making. The USDA monitors the major global agricultural commodities through the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD) of its Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Specifically, PECAD iintelligence focuses on global agricultural production and on conditions that affect food security. In conjunction with the USDA, NASA is evaluating the potential for products from NASA's Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) missions to add value to PECAD's decision support tools. NASA is usig a systems engineering approach to evaluate the potential enhancement of PECAD's decision support system (DSS)-first by understanding the components of the system and its input requirements, then by recommending NASA products that may be integrated as system inputs to improve the accuracy, quality, or efficiency of the DSS output. This report documents the evaluation phase of the systems engineering process and includes an examination of the system architecture, operations, and input requirements, as well as an initial assessment of specific ESE measurement systems and products that should be considered for their potential to enhance the PECAD DSS.

  8. Developing a Tool for Measuring the Decision-Making Competence of Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Finucane, Melissa L.; Gullion, Christina M.

    2010-01-01

    The authors evaluated the reliability and validity of a tool for measuring older adults’ decision-making competence (DMC). Two-hundred-five younger adults (25-45 years), 208 young-older adults (65-74 years), and 198 old-older adults (75-97 years) made judgments and decisions related to health, finance, and nutrition. Reliable indices of comprehension, dimension weighting, and cognitive reflection were developed. Unlike previous research, the authors were able to compare old-older with young-older adults’ performance. As hypothesized, old-older adults performed more poorly than young-older adults; both groups of older adults performed more poorly than younger adults. Hierarchical regression analyses showed that a large amount of variance in decision performance across age groups (including mean trends) could be accounted for by social variables, health measures, basic cognitive skills, attitudinal measures, and numeracy. Structural equation modeling revealed significant pathways from three exogenous latent factors (crystallized intelligence, other cognitive abilities, and age) to the endogenous DMC latent factor. Further research is needed to validate the meaning of performance on these tasks for real-life decision making. PMID:20545413

  9. Risk-based climate-change impact assessment for the water industry.

    PubMed

    Thorne, O M; Fenner, R A

    2009-01-01

    In response to a rapidly changing and highly variable climate, engineers are being asked to perform climate-change impact assessments on existing water industry systems. There is currently no single method of best practice for engineers to interpret output from global climate models (GCMs) and calculate probabilistic distributions of future climate changes as required for risk-based impact assessments. The simplified climate change impact assessment tool (SCIAT) has been developed to address the specific needs of the water industry and provides a tool to translate climate change projections into 'real world' impacts or for detailed statistical analysis. Through the use of SCIAT, water system operators are provided with knowledge of potential impacts and an associated probability of occurrence, enabling them to make informed, risk-based adaptation and planning decisions. This paper demonstrates the application of SCIAT to the consideration of the impacts of climate change on reservoir water quality under future climate scenarios.

  10. A decision support tool for landfill methane generation and gas collection.

    PubMed

    Emkes, Harriet; Coulon, Frédéric; Wagland, Stuart

    2015-09-01

    This study presents a decision support tool (DST) to enhance methane generation at individual landfill sites. To date there is no such tool available to provide landfill decision makers with clear and simplified information to evaluate biochemical processes within a landfill site, to assess performance of gas production and to identify potential remedies to any issues. The current lack in understanding stems from the complexity of the landfill waste degradation process. Two scoring sets for landfill gas production performance are calculated with the tool: (1) methane output score which measures the deviation of the actual methane output rate at each site which the prediction generated by the first order decay model LandGEM; and (2) landfill gas indicators' score, which measures the deviation of the landfill gas indicators from their ideal ranges for optimal methane generation conditions. Landfill gas indicators include moisture content, temperature, alkalinity, pH, BOD, COD, BOD/COD ratio, ammonia, chloride, iron and zinc. A total landfill gas indicator score is provided using multi-criteria analysis to calculate the sum of weighted scores for each indicator. The weights for each indicator are calculated using an analytical hierarchical process. The tool is tested against five real scenarios for landfill sites in UK with a range of good, average and poor landfill methane generation over a one year period (2012). An interpretation of the results is given for each scenario and recommendations are highlighted for methane output rate enhancement. Results demonstrate how the tool can help landfill managers and operators to enhance their understanding of methane generation at a site-specific level, track landfill methane generation over time, compare and rank sites, and identify problems areas within a landfill site.

  11. Decision tools for bacterial blight resistance gene deployment in rice-based agricultural ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Dossa, Gerbert S.; Sparks, Adam; Cruz, Casiana Vera; Oliva, Ricardo

    2015-01-01

    Attempting to achieve long-lasting and stable resistance using uniformly deployed rice varieties is not a sustainable approach. The real situation appears to be much more complex and dynamic, one in which pathogens quickly adapt to resistant varieties. To prevent disease epidemics, deployment should be customized and this decision will require interdisciplinary actions. This perspective article aims to highlight the current progress on disease resistance deployment to control bacterial blight in rice. Although the model system rice-Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae has distinctive features that underpin the need for a case-by-case analysis, strategies to integrate those elements into a unique decision tool could be easily extended to other crops. PMID:25999970

  12. Decision tools for bacterial blight resistance gene deployment in rice-based agricultural ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Dossa, Gerbert S; Sparks, Adam; Cruz, Casiana Vera; Oliva, Ricardo

    2015-01-01

    Attempting to achieve long-lasting and stable resistance using uniformly deployed rice varieties is not a sustainable approach. The real situation appears to be much more complex and dynamic, one in which pathogens quickly adapt to resistant varieties. To prevent disease epidemics, deployment should be customized and this decision will require interdisciplinary actions. This perspective article aims to highlight the current progress on disease resistance deployment to control bacterial blight in rice. Although the model system rice-Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae has distinctive features that underpin the need for a case-by-case analysis, strategies to integrate those elements into a unique decision tool could be easily extended to other crops.

  13. Tools for Risk-Based UXO Remediation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-01-01

    we (i) performed a probabilistic risk assessment using polarizabilities and ground truth information from Camp San Luis Obispo , Camp Butner, and...actual depth distribution of the UXO recovered at San Luis Obispo and results of the synthetic seed study, we conclude that all of the UXO, at least...same detection scheme, for burial depths of up to 0.77m. Thus, the detection process applied to ESTCP’s Classification Study at San Luis Obispo , CA

  14. A Set of Web-based Tools for Integrating Scientific Research and Decision-Making through Systems Thinking

    EPA Science Inventory

    Currently, many policy and management decisions are made without considering the goods and services humans derive from ecosystems and the costs associated with protecting them. This approach is unlikely to be sustainable. Conceptual frameworks provide a tool for capturing, visual...

  15. MEETING IN CHICAGO: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  16. SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SLIDE PRESENTATION)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  17. MEETING IN CZECH REPUBLIC: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  18. Decision support tools for proton therapy ePR: intelligent treatment planning navigator and radiation toxicity tool for evaluating of prostate cancer treatment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le, Anh H.; Deshpande, Ruchi; Liu, Brent J.

    2010-03-01

    The electronic patient record (ePR) has been developed for prostate cancer patients treated with proton therapy. The ePR has functionality to accept digital input from patient data, perform outcome analysis and patient and physician profiling, provide clinical decision support and suggest courses of treatment, and distribute information across different platforms and health information systems. In previous years, we have presented the infrastructure of a medical imaging informatics based ePR for PT with functionality to accept digital patient information and distribute this information across geographical location using Internet protocol. In this paper, we present the ePR decision support tools which utilize the imaging processing tools and data collected in the ePR. The two decision support tools including the treatment plan navigator and radiation toxicity tool are presented to evaluate prostate cancer treatment to improve proton therapy operation and improve treatment outcomes analysis.

  19. DEVELOPMENT OF PROTOCOLS AND DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS FOR ASSESSING WATERSHED SYSTEM ASSIMILATIVE CAPACITY (SAC), IN SUPPORT OF RISK-BASED ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT/RESTORATION PRACTICES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL) has instituted a program for Risk Management Research for Ecosystem Restoration in Watersheds. This program is one component of the Office of Research and Development Ecosystem Protection Research Program. As part of this...

  20. Predicting Human Error in Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools and Free Flight Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mogford, Richard; Kopardekar, Parimal

    2001-01-01

    The document is a set of briefing slides summarizing the work the Advanced Air Transportation Technologies (AATT) Project is doing on predicting air traffic controller and airline pilot human error when using new decision support software tools and when involved in testing new air traffic control concepts. Previous work in this area is reviewed as well as research being done jointly with the FAA. Plans for error prediction work in the AATT Project are discussed. The audience is human factors researchers and aviation psychologists from government and industry.

  1. Addendum to Air Quality: Decision Support Tools, Partner Plans, Working Groups, Committees

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holekamp, Kara; Frisbie, Troy; Estep, Lee

    2005-01-01

    In the original report dated February 11, 2005, the utility of the NASA Earth science data in the air quality activities of other agencies and organizations was assessed by reviewing strategic and mission plans and by conducting personal interviews with agency experts to identify and investigate agencies with the potential for partnership with NASA. The overarching agency strategic plans were reviewed and commonalities such as the desire for partnerships and technology development were noted. The addendum to the original report contains such information about the Tennessee Valley Authority and will be inserted in Section 2.6 of "Air Quality Decision Support Tools, Partner Plans, Working Groups, Committees".

  2. Addendum to Air Quality: Decision Support Tools, Partner Plans, Working Groups, Committees

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holekamp, Kara; Frisbie, Troy; Estep, Lee

    2005-01-01

    In the original report dated February 11, 2005, the utility of NASA Earth science data in the air quality activities of other agencies and organizations was assessed by reviewing strategic and mission plans and by conducting personal interviews with agency experts to identify and investigate agencies with the potential for partnership with NASA. The overarching agency strategic plans were reviewed and commonalities such as the desire for partnerships and technology development were noted. This addendum to the original report contains such information about the Tennessee Valley Authority and will be inserted as Section 2.6 of "Air Quality: Decision Support Tools, Partner Plans, Working Groups, Committees."

  3. Remote Sensing: A valuable tool in the Forest Service decision making process. [in Utah

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanton, F. L.

    1975-01-01

    Forest Service studies for integrating remotely sensed data into existing information systems highlight a need to: (1) re-examine present methods of collecting and organizing data, (2) develop an integrated information system for rapidly processing and interpreting data, (3) apply existing technological tools in new ways, and (4) provide accurate and timely information for making right management decisions. The Forest Service developed an integrated information system using remote sensors, microdensitometers, computer hardware and software, and interactive accessories. Their efforts substantially reduce the time it takes for collecting and processing data.

  4. Performance of online drug information databases as clinical decision support tools in infectious disease medication management.

    PubMed

    Polen, Hyla H; Zapantis, Antonia; Clauson, Kevin A; Clauson, Kevin Alan; Jebrock, Jennifer; Paris, Mark

    2008-11-06

    Infectious disease (ID) medication management is complex and clinical decision support tools (CDSTs) can provide valuable assistance. This study evaluated scope and completeness of ID drug information found in online databases by evaluating their ability to answer 147 question/answer pairs. Scope scores produced highest rankings (%) for: Micromedex (82.3), Lexi-Comp/American Hospital Formulary Service (81.0), and Medscape Drug Reference (81.0); lowest includes: Epocrates Online Premium (47.0), Johns Hopkins ABX Guide (45.6), and PEPID PDC (40.8).

  5. Developing and Validating a Tool to Assess Ethical Decision-Making Ability of Nursing Students, Using Rubrics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Indhraratana, Apinya; Kaemkate, Wannee

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to develop a reliable and valid tool to assess ethical decision-making ability of nursing students using rubrics. A proposed ethical decision making process, from reviewing related literature was used as a framework for developing the rubrics. Participants included purposive sample of 86 nursing students from the Royal…

  6. Decision support tools for urban water and wastewater systems--focussing on hazardous flows assessment.

    PubMed

    Malmqvist, P A; Palmquist, H

    2005-01-01

    The Swedish research programme Urban Water has developed a concept of a multi-criteria basis intended to support decision-making for urban water and wastewater systems. Five criteria groups were established for sustainability assessment of urban water systems: Health and Hygiene, Environment, Economy, Socio-culture, and Technology. Each criterion requires a set of indicators corresponding to quantifiable facts and figures, or qualitative data to comparatively assess the different alternatives in the decision process. The decision support process starts as a baseline study where the existing conditions are addressed. Alternative strategies of the future urban water system are developed and analysed by different tools and methodologies in assessing the five criteria groups. Eventually, the results and conclusions are integrated and synthesised into a basis for decision-making. As an example of a decision support basis for chemical safety, a barrier perspective was introduced to find out if and to what extent hazardous substances can be stopped, diverged, or transformed at various points in the wastewater system. A set of barriers was suggested, i.e. behaviour, systems design, process design, optional recipients, and organisational. The barrier approach was applied to two alternative municipal wastewater system designs--a combined wastewater system vs. a source separated system--analysing the fate of phosphorus, cadmium, and triclosan. The study showed that the combined system caused a higher substance flow to the receiving waterbody than the separated system. The combined system also brought more phosphorus and cadmium to the farmland than the separated system, but only half the amount of triclosan.

  7. Identifying Decision Support Tools to Bridge Climate and Agricultural Needs in the Midwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, B. L.; Kluck, D. R.; Hatfield, J.; Black, C.; Kellner, O.; Woloszyn, M.; Timlin, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate monitoring tools designed to help stakeholders reduce climate impacts have been developed for the primary Midwest field crops of corn and soybean. However, the region also produces vital livestock and specialty crops that currently lack similar climate monitoring and projection tools. In autumn 2015, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) partnered with the US Department of Agriculture's Midwest Climate Hub to convene agriculture stakeholders, climate scientists, and climate service specialists to discuss climate impacts and needs for these two, often under-represented, sectors. The goals of this workshop were to (1) identify climate impacts that specialty crops and livestock producers face within the Midwest, (2) develop an understanding of the types of climate and weather information and tools currently available in the Midwest that could be applied to decision making, and (3) discover the types of climate and weather information and tools needed to address concerns of specialty crop and livestock commodities across the Midwest. This presentation will discuss the workshop and provide highlights of the outcomes that developed into strategic plans for the future to better serve these sectors of agriculture in the Midwest.

  8. Effective dialogue: enhanced public engagement as a legitimising tool for municipal waste management decision-making.

    PubMed

    Garnett, Kenisha; Cooper, Tim

    2014-12-01

    The complexity of municipal waste management decision-making has increased in recent years, accompanied by growing scrutiny from stakeholders, including local communities. This complexity reflects a socio-technical framing of the risks and social impacts associated with selecting technologies and sites for waste treatment and disposal facilities. Consequently there is growing pressure on local authorities for stakeholders (including communities) to be given an early opportunity to shape local waste policy in order to encourage swift planning, development and acceptance of the technologies needed to meet statutory targets to divert waste from landfill. This paper presents findings from a research project that explored the use of analytical-deliberative processes as a legitimising tool for waste management decision-making. Adopting a mixed methods approach, the study revealed that communicating the practical benefits of more inclusive forms of engagement is proving difficult even though planning and policy delays are hindering development and implementation of waste management infrastructure. Adopting analytical-deliberative processes at a more strategic level will require local authorities and practitioners to demonstrate how expert-citizen deliberations may foster progress in resolving controversial issues, through change in individuals, communities and institutions. The findings suggest that a significant shift in culture will be necessary for local authorities to realise the potential of more inclusive decision processes. This calls for political actors and civic society to collaborate in institutionalising public involvement in both strategic and local planning structures.

  9. Verification and Validation of NASA-Supported Enhancements to PECAD's Decision Support Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McKellipo, Rodney; Ross, Kenton W.

    2006-01-01

    The NASA Applied Sciences Directorate (ASD), part of the Earth-Sun System Division of NASA's Science Mission Directorate, has partnered with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to enhance decision support in the area of agricultural efficiency-an application of national importance. The ASD integrated the results of NASA Earth science research into USDA decision support tools employed by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD), which supports national decision making by gathering, analyzing, and disseminating global crop intelligence. Verification and validation of the following enhancements are summarized: 1) Near-real-time Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products through PECAD's MODIS Image Gallery; 2) MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series data through the USDA-FAS MODIS NDVI Database; and 3) Jason-1 and TOPEX/Poseidon lake level estimates through PECAD's Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor. Where possible, each enhanced product was characterized for accuracy, timeliness, and coverage, and the characterized performance was compared to PECAD operational requirements. The MODIS Image Gallery and the GRLM are more mature and have achieved a semi-operational status, whereas the USDA-FAS MODIS NDVI Database is still evolving and should be considered

  10. Learning environment simulator: a tool for local decision makers and first responders

    SciTech Connect

    Leclaire, Rene J; Hirsch, Gary B

    2009-01-01

    The National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) has developed a prototype learning environment simulator (LES) based on the Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIPDSS) infrastructure and scenario models. The LES is designed to engage decision makers at the grass-roots level (local/city/state) to deepen their understanding of an evolving crisis, enhance their intuition and allow them to test their own strategies for events before they occur. An initial version is being developed, centered on a pandemic influenza outbreak and has been successfully tested with a group of hospital administrators and first responders. LES is not a predictive tool but rather a simulated environment allowing the user to experience the complexities of a crisis before it happens. Users can contrast various approaches to the crisis, competing with alternative strategies of their own or other participants. LES is designed to assist decision makers in making informed choices by functionally representing relevant scenarios before they occur, including impacts to critical infrastructures with their interdependencies, and estimating human health & safety and economic impacts. In this paper a brief overview of the underlying models are given followed by a description of the LES, its interface and usage and an overview of the experience testing LES with a group of hospital administrators and first responders. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the work remaining to make LES operational.

  11. Evaluation of Pushback Decision-Support Tool Concept for Charlotte Douglas International Airport Ramp Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hayashi, Miwa; Hoang, Ty; Jung, Yoon C.; Malik, Waqar; Lee, Hanbong; Dulchinos, Victoria L.

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new departure pushback decision-support tool (DST) for airport ramp-tower controllers. It is based on NASA's Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) collaborative decision-making concept, except with the modification that the gate releases now are controlled by tactical pushback (or gate-hold) advisories instead of strategic pre-assignments of target pushback times to individual departure flights. The proposed ramp DST relies on data exchange with the airport traffic control tower (ATCT) to coordinate pushbacks with the ATCT's flow-management intentions under current operational constraints, such as Traffic Management Initiative constraints. Airlines would benefit in reduced taxi delay and fuel burn. The concept was evaluated in a human-in-the-loop simulation experiment with current ramp-tower controllers at the Charlotte Douglas International Airport as participants. The results showed that the tool helped reduce taxi time by one minute per flight and overall departure flight fuel consumption by 10-12% without reducing runway throughput. Expect Departure Clearance Time (EDCT) conformance also was improved when advisories were provided. These benefits were attained without increasing the ramp-tower controllers' workload. Additionally, the advisories reduced the ATCT controllers' workload.

  12. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

    2009-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

  13. The challenge of predicting problematic chemicals using a decision analysis tool: Triclosan as a case study.

    PubMed

    Perez, Angela L; Gauthier, Alison M; Ferracini, Tyler; Cowan, Dallas M; Kingsbury, Tony; Panko, Julie

    2017-01-01

    Manufacturers lack a reliable means for determining whether a chemical will be targeted for deselection from their supply chain. In this analysis, 3 methods for determining whether a specific chemical (triclosan) would meet the criteria necessary for being targeted for deselection are presented. The methods included a list-based approach, use of a commercially available chemical assessment software tool run in 2 modes, and a public interest evaluation. Our results indicated that triclosan was included on only 6 of the lists reviewed, none of which were particularly influential in chemical selection decisions. The results from the chemical assessment tool evaluations indicated that human and ecological toxicity for triclosan is low and received scores indicating that the chemical would be considered of low concern. However, triclosan's peak public interest tracked several years in advance of increased regulatory scrutiny of this chemical suggesting that public pressure may have been influential in deselection decisions. Key data gaps and toxicity endpoints not yet regulated such as endocrine disruption potential or phototoxicity, but that are important to estimate the trajectory for deselection of a chemical, are discussed. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:198-207. © 2016 SETAC.

  14. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric L.; Minard, Charles; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary H.; Walton, Marlei E.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.; Saile, Lynn G.; Lopez, Vilma; Butler, Douglas J.; Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and its use as a risk assessment and decision support tool for human space flight missions. The IMM is an integrated, quantified, evidence-based decision support tool useful to NASA crew health and mission planners. It is intended to assist in optimizing crew health, safety and mission success within the constraints of the space flight environment for in-flight operations. It uses ISS data to assist in planning for the Exploration Program and it is not intended to assist in post flight research. The IMM was used to update Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) for the purpose of updating forecasts for the conditions requiring evacuation (EVAC) or Loss of Crew Life (LOC) for the ISS. The IMM validation approach includes comparison with actual events and involves both qualitative and quantitaive approaches. The results of these comparisons are reviewed. Another use of the IMM is to optimize the medical kits taking into consideration the specific mission and the crew profile. An example of the use of the IMM to optimize the medical kits is reviewed.

  15. Values based decision making: a tool for achieving the goals of healthcare.

    PubMed

    Mills, Anne E; Spencer, Edward M

    2005-03-01

    The recognition that the success of the healthcare organization depends on its achievement of two interrelated goals is a relatively recent phenomenon. In its mid-history the healthcare organization was largely able to ignore cost issues. In its latter history, many would argue that it ignored its quality goals as it pursued its cost goals (15). Either approach, given declining revenues and a competitive landscape, is incompatible with continued responsible operation. If this is true, then tools that were appropriate when the healthcare organization was focused on the achievement of one or another of these goals are not adequate as the healthcare organization seeks to achieve both goals together. Thus, new perspectives and new tools must be found that help the organization address two intimately related but sometimes conflicting goals. Values based decision-making can be the perspective needed, and organization ethics is one tool that can be of use in supporting it within the institution. But there are caveats. In order for values based decision-making to be effective, leadership must take an active role in promoting its use. It must relinquish a degree of control and it must begin to trust its stakeholders to make decisions within the context of the organization's values and goals. This can be extremely difficult, as control by senior management is often seen as the only effective means of ensuring that correct decisions are made. There are additional difficulties in the healthcare organization. Control rests within two groups and the healthcare organization is operating in an environment in which variance elimination is emphasized as a means of controlling costs. This may be an appealing notion for revenue strapped healthcare organization leaders, but it implies greater control exerted by managers, not less. Relinquishing any degree of control is a frightening prospect, but it has been done successfully. An excellent example of leadership encouraging decisions

  16. An Evolutionary Complex Systems Decision-Support Tool for the Management of Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldwin, J. S.; Allen, P. M.; Ridgway, K.

    2011-12-01

    This research aimed to add both to the development of complex systems thinking in the subject area of Operations and Production Management and to the limited number of applications of computational models and simulations from the science of complex systems. The latter potentially offer helpful decision-support tools for operations and production managers. A mechanical engineering firm was used as a case study where a combined qualitative and quantitative methodological approach was employed to extract the required data from four senior managers. Company performance measures as well as firm technologies, practices and policies, and their relation and interaction with one another, were elicited. The data were subjected to an evolutionary complex systems model resulting in a series of simulations. The findings included both reassuring and some unexpected results. The simulation based on the CEO's opinions led the most cohesive and synergistic collection of practices describing the firm, closely followed by the Marketing and R&D Managers. The Manufacturing Manager's responses led to the most extreme evolutionary trajectory where the integrity of the entire firm came into question particularly when considering how employees were utilised. By drawing directly from the opinions and views of managers rather than from logical 'if-then' rules and averaged mathematical representations of agents that characterise agent-based and other self-organisational models, this work builds on previous applications by capturing a micro-level description of diversity and a learning effect that has been problematical not only in terms of theory but also in application. This approach can be used as a decision-support tool for operations and other managers providing a forum with which to explore a) the strengths, weaknesses and consequences of different decision-making capacities within the firm; b) the introduction of new manufacturing technologies, practices and policies; and, c) the

  17. DE-CERTS: A Decision Support System for a Comparative Evaluation Method for Risk Management Methodologies and Tools

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-09-01

    Patton , Michael Quinn . Qualitative Evaluation Methods . Sage, 1980. Pfleeger, Charles P...the research and indicates directions for further research . 6 II. CERTS: A COMPARATIVE EVALUATION METHOD FOR RISK MANAGDENT METHODOLOGIES AND TOOLS A...A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR A COMPARATIVE EVALUATION METHOD FOR RISK MANAGEMENT METHODOLOGIES AND TOOLS by Leonard A. Crump Jr. and James G.

  18. Opportunities and strategies to incorporate ecosystem services knowledge and decision support tools into planning and decision making in Hawai'i.

    PubMed

    Bremer, Leah L; Delevaux, Jade M S; Leary, James J K; J Cox, Linda; Oleson, Kirsten L L

    2015-04-01

    Incorporating ecosystem services into management decisions is a promising means to link conservation and human well-being. Nonetheless, planning and management in Hawai'i, a state with highly valued natural capital, has yet to broadly utilize an ecosystem service approach. We conducted a stakeholder assessment, based on semi-structured interviews, with terrestrial (n = 26) and marine (n = 27) natural resource managers across the State of Hawai'i to understand the current use of ecosystem services (ES) knowledge and decision support tools and whether, how, and under what contexts, further development would potentially be useful. We found that ES knowledge and tools customized to Hawai'i could be useful for communication and outreach, justifying management decisions, and spatial planning. Greater incorporation of this approach is clearly desired and has a strong potential to contribute to more sustainable decision making and planning in Hawai'i and other oceanic island systems. However, the unique biophysical, socio-economic, and cultural context of Hawai'i, and other island systems, will require substantial adaptation of existing ES tools. Based on our findings, we identified four key opportunities for the use of ES knowledge and tools in Hawai'i: (1) linking native forest protection to watershed health; (2) supporting sustainable agriculture; (3) facilitating ridge-to-reef management; and (4) supporting statewide terrestrial and marine spatial planning. Given the interest expressed by natural resource managers, we envision broad adoption of ES knowledge and decision support tools if knowledge and tools are tailored to the Hawaiian context and coupled with adequate outreach and training.

  19. Opportunities and Strategies to Incorporate Ecosystem Services Knowledge and Decision Support Tools into Planning and Decision Making in Hawai`i

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bremer, Leah L.; Delevaux, Jade M. S.; Leary, James J. K.; J. Cox, Linda; Oleson, Kirsten L. L.

    2015-04-01

    Incorporating ecosystem services into management decisions is a promising means to link conservation and human well-being. Nonetheless, planning and management in Hawai`i, a state with highly valued natural capital, has yet to broadly utilize an ecosystem service approach. We conducted a stakeholder assessment, based on semi-structured interviews, with terrestrial ( n = 26) and marine ( n = 27) natural resource managers across the State of Hawai`i to understand the current use of ecosystem services (ES) knowledge and decision support tools and whether, how, and under what contexts, further development would potentially be useful. We found that ES knowledge and tools customized to Hawai`i could be useful for communication and outreach, justifying management decisions, and spatial planning. Greater incorporation of this approach is clearly desired and has a strong potential to contribute to more sustainable decision making and planning in Hawai`i and other oceanic island systems. However, the unique biophysical, socio-economic, and cultural context of Hawai`i, and other island systems, will require substantial adaptation of existing ES tools. Based on our findings, we identified four key opportunities for the use of ES knowledge and tools in Hawai`i: (1) linking native forest protection to watershed health; (2) supporting sustainable agriculture; (3) facilitating ridge-to-reef management; and (4) supporting statewide terrestrial and marine spatial planning. Given the interest expressed by natural resource managers, we envision broad adoption of ES knowledge and decision support tools if knowledge and tools are tailored to the Hawaiian context and coupled with adequate outreach and training.

  20. Facilitating adaptive management in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed through the use of online decision support tools

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mullinx, Cassandra; Phillips, Scott; Shenk, Kelly; Hearn, Paul; Devereux, Olivia

    2009-01-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is attempting to more strategically implement management actions to improve the health of the Nation’s largest estuary. In 2007 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) CBP office began a joint effort to develop a suite of Internetaccessible decision-support tools and to help meet the needs of CBP partners to improve water quality and habitat conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and its watersheds. An adaptive management framework is being used to provide a structured decision process for information and individual tools needed to implement and assess practices to improve the condition of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The Chesapeake Online Adaptive Support Toolkit (COAST) is a collection of web-based analytical tools and information, organized in an adaptive management framework, intended to aid decisionmakers in protecting and restoring the integrity of the Bay ecosystem. The initial version of COAST is focused on water quality issues. During early and mid- 2008, initial ideas for COAST were shared and discussed with various CBP partners and other potential user groups. At these meetings, test cases were selected to help improve understanding of the types of information and analytical functionality that would be most useful for specific partners’ needs. These discussions added considerable knowledge about the nature of decisionmaking for Federal, State, local and nongovernmental partners. Version 1.0 of COAST, released in early winter of 2008, will be further reviewed to determine improvements needed to address implementation and assessment of water quality practices. Future versions of COAST may address other aspects of ecosystem restoration, including restoration of habitat and living resources and maintaining watershed health.

  1. Decision Tools: What To Consider When Partnering for Learnware = Outils de decision: Facteurs a considerer dans la mise en place de partenariats pour les technologies d'apprentissage.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stahmer, Anna; Green, Lyndsay

    This report provides a set of decision tools for learnware developers in private companies, public organizations, and education institutions to use in developing strategic alliances or partnerships for the development, delivery, and marketing of learnware products and services designed to meet Canadians' lifelong learning needs. The report…

  2. Information technology and decision support tools for stakeholder-driven river basin salinity management

    SciTech Connect

    Quinn, N.W.T; Cozad, D.B.; Lee, G.

    2010-01-01

    Innovative strategies for effective basin-scale salinity management have been developed in the Hunter River Basin of Australia and more recently in the San Joaquin River Basin of California. In both instances web-based stakeholder information dissemination has been a key to achieving a high level of stakeholder involvement and the formulation of effective decision support salinity management tools. A common element to implementation of salinity management strategies in both river basins has been the concept of river assimilative capacity for controlling export salt loading and the potential for trading of the right to discharge salt load to the river - the Hunter River in Australia and the San Joaquin River in California. Both rivers provide basin drainage and the means of exporting salt to the ocean. The paper compares and contrasts the use of monitoring, modeling and information dissemination in the two basins to achieve environmental compliance and sustain irrigated agriculture in an equitable and socially and politically acceptable manner.

  3. A decision support tool to optimize IMRT QA workflow in a multi-vendor equipment environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arumugam, Sankar; Xing, Aitang; Vial, Philip; Holloway, Lois

    2014-03-01

    Development of a software tool to ease the Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) pre-treatment Quality Assurance process is presented in this study. The delivery of IMRT involves equipment from multiple vendors. The limitations of the equipment involved in this chain will impact on the best choice of equipment. This often results in the user needing to use multiple pieces of equipment before determining the most appropriate choices to optimise the QA work flow. This is a time consuming process and potentially delays the start of patient treatment. Software was developed in-house to assist the decision making process, validating deliverability of beam delivery parameters and selecting appropriate detector systems and configuration for QA of IMRT plans. The software has been demonstrated to be accurate and improves efficiency of IMRT pre-treatment QA.

  4. A decision support tool for synchronizing technology advances with strategic mission objectives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hornstein, Rhoda S.; Willoughby, John K.

    1992-01-01

    Successful accomplishment of the objectives of many long-range future missions in areas such as space systems, land-use planning, and natural resource management requires significant technology developments. This paper describes the development of a decision-support data-derived tool called MisTec for helping strategic planners to determine technology development alternatives and to synchronize the technology development schedules with the performance schedules of future long-term missions. Special attention is given to the operations, concept, design, and functional capabilities of the MisTec. The MisTec was initially designed for manned Mars mission, but can be adapted to support other high-technology long-range strategic planning situations, making it possible for a mission analyst, planner, or manager to describe a mission scenario, determine the technology alternatives for making the mission achievable, and to plan the R&D activity necessary to achieve the required technology advances.

  5. Biliary tract cancers: molecular profiling as a tool for treatment decisions. A literature review.

    PubMed

    Berardi, Rossana; Rossana, Berardi; Scartozzi, Mario; Mario, Scartozzi; Freddari, Federica; Federica, Freddari; Squadroni, Michela; Michela, Squadroni; Santinelli, Alfredo; Alfredo, Santinelli; Bearzi, Italo; Italo, Bearzi; Fabris, Guidalberto; Guidalberto, Fabris; Cascinu, Stefano; Stefano, Cascinu

    2006-08-01

    Biliary tract cancer is a quite rare disease; despite recent significant advances in imaging modalities, most of the patients have advanced disease at presentation thus making radical surgery not feasible. Many different chemotherapeutic regimens have been investigated in small uncontrolled studies, with generally disappointing results. We extensively reviewed the literature on this topic trying to give an explanation to chemoresistance in this setting of patients and considering the molecular profiling as a tool for treatment decision. This review is divided in two parts, in the first one we illustrated chemotherapy results and possible mechanisms of resistance. In the second part we analysed the new molecular targets developing an hypothesis about the future therapeutics perspectives.

  6. An Interface to Drought Mitigation: Decision Support Tools from the National Drought Mitigation Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svoboda, M.; Fuchs, B.; Hayes, M. J.

    2012-12-01

    The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) (http://drought.unl.edu) has been working with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) (http://drought.gov) and other partners with a goal of developing tools to enhance drought risk management activities around the world. The NDMC is a national center founded in 1995 and located at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The NDMC conducts basic and applied research, services and decision support applications, along with maintaining a number of operational drought-related tools and products including the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), Drought Impact Reporter (DIR) and Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI). The NDMC's newly launched National Drought Atlas (NDA) will be the focus of this presentation. Building off the concept of the original National Electronic Drought Atlas (NEDA) developed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (led by Hoskings, Wallis and Guttman in the early 1990s), the original NEDA consisted of approximately 1000 stations taken from the Historical Climate Network (HCN). The period of record was limited at that time with most stations only having digital data from the late 1940s to present. For the NDMC's NDA, more than 12,000 stations with precipitation and/or temperature records from the National Weather Service Cooperative data (COOP) network were analyzed through the Regional Climate Centers' (RCCs) Applied Climate Information System (ACIS). From the initial sample set of 12,000 sites considered, over 3000 stations had at least 40 years of data and over 1700 sites had over 60 years of data meeting our criteria. A unique period of record (POR) was established for each station based on the screening criteria, with each station having a unique starting date. From the final selection of 3059 stations, all have at least 40+ years of data and 827 sites contain over 80+ years of data. In essence, the new NDA tripled the size and doubled the period of record of those sites used in

  7. Disaster Response Tools for Decision Support and Data Discovery - E-DECIDER and GeoGateway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glasscoe, M. T.; Donnellan, A.; Parker, J. W.; Granat, R. A.; Lyzenga, G. A.; Pierce, M. E.; Wang, J.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Eguchi, R. T.; Huyck, C. K.; Hu, Z.; Chen, Z.; Yoder, M. R.; Rundle, J. B.; Rosinski, A.

    2015-12-01

    Providing actionable data for situational awareness following an earthquake or other disaster is critical to decision makers in order to improve their ability to anticipate requirements and provide appropriate resources for response. E-DECIDER (Emergency Data Enhanced Cyber-Infrastructure for Disaster Evaluation and Response) is a decision support system producing remote sensing and geophysical modeling products that are relevant to the emergency preparedness and response communities and serves as a gateway to enable the delivery of actionable information to these communities. GeoGateway is a data product search and analysis gateway for scientific discovery, field use, and disaster response focused on NASA UAVSAR and GPS data that integrates with fault data, seismicity and models. Key information on the nature, magnitude and scope of damage, or Essential Elements of Information (EEI), necessary to achieve situational awareness are often generated from a wide array of organizations and disciplines, using any number of geospatial and non-geospatial technologies. We have worked in partnership with the California Earthquake Clearinghouse to develop actionable data products for use in their response efforts, particularly in regularly scheduled, statewide exercises like the recent May 2015 Capstone/SoCal NLE/Ardent Sentry Exercises and in the August 2014 South Napa earthquake activation. We also provided a number of products, services, and consultation to the NASA agency-wide response to the April 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake. We will present perspectives on developing tools for decision support and data discovery in partnership with the Clearinghouse and for the Nepal earthquake. Products delivered included map layers as part of the common operational data plan for the Clearinghouse, delivered through XchangeCore Web Service Data Orchestration, enabling users to create merged datasets from multiple providers. For the Nepal response effort, products included models

  8. The GMOseek matrix: a decision support tool for optimizing the detection of genetically modified plants

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Since their first commercialization, the diversity of taxa and the genetic composition of transgene sequences in genetically modified plants (GMOs) are constantly increasing. To date, the detection of GMOs and derived products is commonly performed by PCR-based methods targeting specific DNA sequences introduced into the host genome. Information available regarding the GMOs’ molecular characterization is dispersed and not appropriately organized. For this reason, GMO testing is very challenging and requires more complex screening strategies and decision making schemes, demanding in return the use of efficient bioinformatics tools relying on reliable information. Description The GMOseek matrix was built as a comprehensive, online open-access tabulated database which provides a reliable, comprehensive and user-friendly overview of 328 GMO events and 247 different genetic elements (status: 18/07/2013). The GMOseek matrix is aiming to facilitate GMO detection from plant origin at different phases of the analysis. It assists in selecting the targets for a screening analysis, interpreting the screening results, checking the occurrence of a screening element in a group of selected GMOs, identifying gaps in the available pool of GMO detection methods, and designing a decision tree. The GMOseek matrix is an independent database with effective functionalities in a format facilitating transferability to other platforms. Data were collected from all available sources and experimentally tested where detection methods and certified reference materials (CRMs) were available. Conclusions The GMOseek matrix is currently a unique and very valuable tool with reliable information on GMOs from plant origin and their present genetic elements that enables further development of appropriate strategies for GMO detection. It is flexible enough to be further updated with new information and integrated in different applications and platforms. PMID:23965170

  9. A flexible and national scale approach to coastal decision tools incorporating sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauss, B.; Kulp, S. A.; Tebaldi, C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate science and sea level models constantly evolve. In this context, maps and analyses of exposure to sea level rise - or coastal flooding aggravated by rise - quickly fall out of date when based upon a specific model projection or projection set. At the same time, policy makers and planners prefer simple and stable risk assessments for their future planning. Here, using Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Finder, we describe and illustrate a decision tool framework that separates the spatial and temporal dimensions of coastal exposure in order to help alleviate this tension. The Risk Finder presents local maps and exposure analyses simply as functions of a discrete set of local water levels. In turn, each water level may be achieved at different times, with different probabilities, according to different combinations of sea level change, storm surge and tide. This temporal dimension is expressed in a separate module of the Risk Finder, so that users may explore the probabilities and time frames of different water levels, as a function of different sea level models and emissions scenarios. With such an approach, decision-makers can quickly get a sense of the range of risks for each water level given current understanding. At the same time, the models and scenarios can easily be updated over time as the science evolves, while avoiding the labor of regenerating maps and exposure analyses. In this talk, we will also use the tool to highlight key findings from a new U.S. national assessment of sea level and coastal flood risk. For example, more than 2.5 million people and $500 billion dollars of property value sit on land less than 2 meters above the high tide line in Florida alone.

  10. Comparing two tools for ecosystem service assessments regarding water resources decisions.

    PubMed

    Dennedy-Frank, P James; Muenich, Rebecca Logsdon; Chaubey, Indrajeet; Ziv, Guy

    2016-07-15

    We present a comparison of two ecohydrologic models commonly used for planning land management to assess the production of hydrologic ecosystem services: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) annual water yield model. We compare these two models at two distinct sites in the US: the Wildcat Creek Watershed in Indiana and the Upper Upatoi Creek Watershed in Georgia. The InVEST and SWAT models provide similar estimates of the spatial distribution of water yield in Wildcat Creek, but very different estimates of the spatial distribution of water yield in Upper Upatoi Creek. The InVEST model may do a poor job estimating the spatial distribution of water yield in the Upper Upatoi Creek Watershed because baseflow provides a significant portion of the site's total water yield, which means that storage dynamics which are not modeled by InVEST may be important. We also compare the ability of these two models, as well as one newly developed set of ecosystem service indices, to deliver useful guidance for land management decisions focused on providing hydrologic ecosystem services in three particular decision contexts: environmental flow ecosystem services, ecosystem services for potable water supply, and ecosystem services for rainfed irrigation. We present a simple framework for selecting models or indices to evaluate hydrologic ecosystem services as a way to formalize where models deliver useful guidance.

  11. Recognition of Protozoa and Metazoa using image analysis tools, discriminant analysis, neural networks and decision trees.

    PubMed

    Ginoris, Y P; Amaral, A L; Nicolau, A; Coelho, M A Z; Ferreira, E C

    2007-07-09

    Protozoa and metazoa are considered good indicators of the treatment quality in activated sludge systems due to the fact that these organisms are fairly sensitive to physical, chemical and operational processes. Therefore, it is possible to establish close relationships between the predominance of certain species or groups of species and several operational parameters of the plant, such as the biotic indices, namely the Sludge Biotic Index (SBI). This procedure requires the identification, classification and enumeration of the different species, which is usually achieved manually implying both time and expertise availability. Digital image analysis combined with multivariate statistical techniques has proved to be a useful tool to classify and quantify organisms in an automatic and not subjective way. This work presents a semi-automatic image analysis procedure for protozoa and metazoa recognition developed in Matlab language. The obtained morphological descriptors were analyzed using discriminant analysis, neural network and decision trees multivariable statistical techniques to identify and classify each protozoan or metazoan. The obtained procedure was quite adequate for distinguishing between the non-sessile protozoa classes and also for the metazoa classes, with high values for the overall species recognition with the exception of sessile protozoa. In terms of the wastewater conditions assessment the obtained results were found to be suitable for the prediction of these conditions. Finally, the discriminant analysis and neural networks results were found to be quite similar whereas the decision trees technique was less appropriate.

  12. A spatial decision support tool for estimating population catchments to aid rural and remote health service allocation planning.

    PubMed

    Schuurman, Nadine; Randall, Ellen; Berube, Myriam

    2011-12-01

    There is mounting pressure on healthcare planners to manage and contain costs. In rural regions, there is a particular need to rationalize health service allocation to ensure the best possible coverage for a dispersed population. Rural health administrators need to be able to quantify the population affected by their allocation decisions and, therefore, need the capacity to incorporate spatial analyses into their decision-making process. Spatial decision support systems (SDSS) can provide this capability. In this article, we combine geographical information systems (GIS) with a web-based graphical user interface (webGUI) in a SDSS tool that enables rural decision-makers charged with service allocation, to estimate population catchments around specific health services in rural and remote areas. Using this tool, health-care planners can model multiple scenarios to determine the optimal location for health services, as well as the number of people served in each instance.

  13. Risk-based versus deterministic explosives safety criteria

    SciTech Connect

    Wright, R.E.

    1996-12-01

    The Department of Defense Explosives Safety Board (DDESB) is actively considering ways to apply risk-based approaches in its decision- making processes. As such, an understanding of the impact of converting to risk-based criteria is required. The objectives of this project are to examine the benefits and drawbacks of risk-based criteria and to define the impact of converting from deterministic to risk-based criteria. Conclusions will be couched in terms that allow meaningful comparisons of deterministic and risk-based approaches. To this end, direct comparisons of the consequences and impacts of both deterministic and risk-based criteria at selected military installations are made. Deterministic criteria used in this report are those in DoD 6055.9-STD, `DoD Ammunition and Explosives Safety Standard.` Risk-based criteria selected for comparison are those used by the government of Switzerland, `Technical Requirements for the Storage of Ammunition (TLM 75).` The risk-based criteria used in Switzerland were selected because they have been successfully applied for over twenty-five years.

  14. No perfect tools: trade-offs of sustainability principles and user requirements in designing support tools for land-use decisions between greenfields and brownfields.

    PubMed

    Bartke, Stephan; Schwarze, Reimund

    2015-04-15

    The EU Soil Thematic Strategy calls for the application of sustainability concepts and methods as part of an integrated policy to prevent soil degradation and to increase the re-use of brownfields. Although certain general principles have been proposed for the evaluation of sustainable development, the practical application of sustainability assessment tools (SATs) is contingent on the actual requirements of tool users, e.g. planners or investors, to pick up such instruments in actual decision making. We examine the normative sustainability principles that need to be taken into account in order to make sound land-use decisions between new development on greenfield sites and the regeneration of brownfields - and relate these principles to empirically observed user requirements and the properties of available SATs. In this way we provide an overview of approaches to sustainability assessment. Three stylized approaches, represented in each case by a typical tool selected from the literature, are presented and contrasted with (1) the norm-oriented Bellagio sustainability principles and (2) the requirements of three different stakeholder groups: decision makers, scientists/experts and representatives of the general public. The paper disentangles some of the inevitable trade-offs involved in seeking to implement sustainable land-use planning, i.e. between norm orientation and holism, broad participation and effective communication. It concludes with the controversial assessment that there are no perfect tools and that to be meaningful the user requirements of decision makers must take precedence over those of other interest groups in the design of SATs.

  15. AERO: A Decision Support Tool for Wind Erosion Assessment in Rangelands and Croplands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galloza, M.; Webb, N.; Herrick, J.

    2015-12-01

    Wind erosion is a key driver of global land degradation, with on- and off-site impacts on agricultural production, air quality, ecosystem services and climate. Measuring rates of wind erosion and dust emission across land use and land cover types is important for quantifying the impacts and identifying and testing practical management options. This process can be assisted by the application of predictive models, which can be a powerful tool for land management agencies. The Aeolian EROsion (AERO) model, a wind erosion and dust emission model interface provides access by non-expert land managers to a sophisticated wind erosion decision-support tool. AERO incorporates land surface processes and sediment transport equations from existing wind erosion models and was designed for application with available national long-term monitoring datasets (e.g. USDI BLM Assessment, Inventory and Monitoring, USDA NRCS Natural Resources Inventory) and monitoring protocols. Ongoing AERO model calibration and validation are supported by geographically diverse data on wind erosion rates and land surface conditions collected by the new National Wind Erosion Research Network. Here we present the new AERO interface, describe parameterization of the underpinning wind erosion model, and provide a summary of the model applications across agricultural lands and rangelands in the United States.

  16. Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

    2011-12-01

    aspects in the decision making process on adaptation measures has been developed and is currently being tested in municipalities including central Gothenburg, and smaller municipalities in Sweden and Norway. The tool is a matrix based decision support tool (MDST) aiming for encoring discussion among experts and stakeholders. The first steps in the decision process include identification, inventory and assessment of the potential impacts of climate change such as landslides (or other events or actions). These steps are also included in general technical/physical risk and vulnerability analyses such as the risk analysis of the Göta älv valley. The MDST also includes further subsequent steps of the risk management process, and the full sequence of the MDST includes risk identification, risk specification, risk assessment, identification of measures, impact analysis of measures including an assessment of environmental, social and economical costs and benefits, a weight process and visualisation of the result. Here the MDST with some examples from the methodology for the Göta river valley analysis and the risk mitigation analysis from Sweden and Norway will be presented.

  17. Usability evaluation of a clinical decision support tool for osteoporosis disease management

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Osteoporosis affects over 200 million people worldwide at a high cost to healthcare systems. Although guidelines are available, patients are not receiving appropriate diagnostic testing or treatment. Findings from a systematic review of osteoporosis interventions and a series of focus groups were used to develop a functional multifaceted tool that can support clinical decision-making in osteoporosis disease management at the point of care. The objective of our study was to assess how well the prototype met functional goals and usability needs. Methods We conducted a usability study for each component of the tool--the Best Practice Recommendation Prompt (BestPROMPT), the Risk Assessment Questionnaire (RAQ), and the Customised Osteoporosis Education (COPE) sheet--using the framework described by Kushniruk and Patel. All studies consisted of one-on-one sessions with a moderator using a standardised worksheet. Sessions were audio- and video-taped and transcribed verbatim. Data analysis consisted of a combination of qualitative and quantitative analyses. Results In study 1, physicians liked that the BestPROMPT can provide customised recommendations based on risk factors identified from the RAQ. Barriers included lack of time to use the tool, the need to alter clinic workflow to enable point-of-care use, and that the tool may disrupt the real reason for the visit. In study 2, patients completed the RAQ in a mean of 6 minutes, 35 seconds. Of the 42 critical incidents, 60% were navigational and most occurred when the first nine participants were using the stylus pen; no critical incidents were observed with the last six participants that used the touch screen. Patients thought that the RAQ questions were easy to read and understand, but they found it difficult to initiate the questionnaire. Suggestions for improvement included improving aspects of the interface and navigation. The results of study 3 showed that most patients were able to understand and describe

  18. The Lichtenberg Financial Decision Screening Scale (LFDSS): A new tool for assessing financial decision making and preventing financial exploitation

    PubMed Central

    Lichtenberg, P.A.; Howard, H; Simaskp, P.; Mall, S.; Speir, J.; Farrell, C.; Tatro, R; Rahman-Filipiak, A.; Ficker, L.J.

    2016-01-01

    One of the challenges in preventing the financial exploitation of older adults is that neither criminal justice nor noncriminal justice professionals are equipped to detect capacity deficits. Because decision-making capacity is a cornerstone assessment in cases of financial exploitation, effective instruments for measuring this capacity are essential. We introduce a new screening scale for financial decision making that can be administered to older adults. To explore the scale’s implementation and assess construct validity, we conducted a pilot study of 29 older adults seen by APS workers and 79 seen by other professionals. Case examples are included. PMID:27010780

  19. An Updated Decision Support Interface: A Tool for Remote Monitoring of Crop Growing Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Husak, G. J.; Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.; Verdin, J. P.; Funk, C. C.; Landsfeld, M. F.

    2014-12-01

    Remote sensing of agroclimatological variables to monitor food production conditions is a critical component of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network portfolio of tools for assessing food security in the developing world. The Decision Support Interface (DSI) seeks to integrate a number of remotely sensed and modeled variables to create a single, simplified portal for analysis of crop growing conditions. The DSI has been reformulated to incorporate more variables and give the user more freedom in exploring the available data. This refinement seeks to transition the DSI from a "first glance" agroclimatic indicator to one better suited for the differentiation of drought events. The DSI performs analysis of variables over primary agricultural zones at the first sub-national administrative level. It uses the spatially averaged rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI), and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) to identify potential hazards to food security. Presenting this information in a web-based client gives food security analysts and decision makers a lightweight portal for information on crop growing conditions in the region. The crop zones used for the aggregation contain timing information which is critical to the DSI presentation. Rainfall and ETa are accumulated from different points in the crop phenology to identify season-long deficits in rainfall or transpiration that adversely affect the crop-growing conditions. Furthermore, the NDVI and WRSI serve as their own seasonal accumulated measures of growing conditions by capturing vegetation vigor or actual evapotranspiration deficits. The DSI is currently active for major growing regions of sub-Saharan Africa, with intention of expanding to other areas over the coming years.

  20. Visual aid tool to improve decision making in acute stroke care.

    PubMed

    Saposnik, Gustavo; Goyal, Mayank; Majoie, Charles; Dippel, Diederik; Roos, Yvo; Demchuk, Andrew; Menon, Bijoy; Mitchell, Peter; Campbell, Bruce; Dávalos, Antoni; Jovin, Tudor; Hill, Michael D

    2016-10-01

    Background Acute stroke care represents a challenge for decision makers. Recent randomized trials showed the benefits of endovascular therapy. Our goal was to provide a visual aid tool to guide clinicians in the decision process of endovascular intervention in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Methods We created visual plots (Cates' plots; www.nntonline.net ) representing benefits of standard of care vs. endovascular thrombectomy from the pooled analysis of five RCTs using stent retrievers. These plots represent the following clinically relevant outcomes (1) functionally independent state (modified Rankin scale (mRS) 0 to 2 at 90 days) (2) excellent recovery (mRS 0-1) at 90 days, (3) NIHSS 0-2 (4) early neurological recovery, and (5) revascularization at 24 h. Subgroups visually represented include time to treatment and baseline stroke severity strata. Results Overall, 1287 patients (634 assigned to endovascular thrombectomy, 653 assigned to control were included to create the visual plots. Cates' visual plots revealed that for every 100 patients with acute ischemic stroke and large vessel occlusion, 27 would achieve independence at 90 days (mRS 0-2) in the control group compared to 49 (95% CI 43-56) in the intervention group. Similarly, 21 patients would achieve early neurological recovery at 24 h compared to 54 (95% CI 45-63) out of 100 for the intervention group. Conclusion Cates' plots may assist clinicians and patients to visualize and compare potential outcomes after an acute ischemic stroke. Our results suggest that for every 100 treated individuals with an acute ischemic stroke and a large vessel occlusion, endovascular thrombectomy would provide 22 additional patients reaching independency at three months and 33 more patients achieving ENR compared to controls.

  1. Ecosystem Decision Support: A Living Database of Existing Tools, Approaches and Techniques for Supporting Decisions Related to Ecosystem Services

    EPA Science Inventory

    Planners and decision makers are challenged to consider not only direct market costs, but also ecological externalities. There is an increasing emphasis on ecosystem services in the context of human well-being, and therefore the valuation and accounting of ecosystem services is b...

  2. Rapid Prototyping of Hyperspectral Image Analysis Algorithms for Improved Invasive Species Decision Support Tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruce, L. M.; Ball, J. E.; Evangilista, P.; Stohlgren, T. J.

    2006-12-01

    Nonnative invasive species adversely impact ecosystems, causing loss of native plant diversity, species extinction, and impairment of wildlife habitats. As a result, over the past decade federal and state agencies and nongovernmental organizations have begun to work more closely together to address the management of invasive species. In 2005, approximately 500M dollars was budgeted by U.S. Federal Agencies for the management of invasive species. Despite extensive expenditures, most of the methods used to detect and quantify the distribution of these invaders are ad hoc, at best. Likewise, decisions on the type of management techniques to be used or evaluation of the success of these methods are typically non-systematic. More efficient methods to detect or predict the occurrence of these species, as well as the incorporation of this knowledge into decision support systems, are greatly needed. In this project, rapid prototyping capabilities (RPC) are utilized for an invasive species application. More precisely, our recently developed analysis techniques for hyperspectral imagery are being prototyped for inclusion in the national Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS). The current ecological forecasting tools in ISFS will be compared to our hyperspectral-based invasives prediction algorithms to determine if/how the newer algorithms enhance the performance of ISFS. The PIs have researched the use of remotely sensed multispectral and hyperspectral reflectance data for the detection of invasive vegetative species. As a result, the PI has designed, implemented, and benchmarked various target detection systems that utilize remotely sensed data. These systems have been designed to make decisions based on a variety of remotely sensed data, including high spectral/spatial resolution hyperspectral signatures (1000's of spectral bands, such as those measured using ASD handheld devices), moderate spectral/spatial resolution hyperspectral images (100's of spectral bands, such

  3. Semiquantitative Decision Tools for FMD Emergency Vaccination Informed by Field Observations and Simulated Outbreak Data

    PubMed Central

    Willeberg, Preben William; AlKhamis, Mohammad; Boklund, Anette; Perez, Andres M.; Enøe, Claes; Halasa, Tariq

    2017-01-01

    We present two simple, semiquantitative model-based decision tools, based on the principle of first 14 days incidence (FFI). The aim is to estimate the likelihood and the consequences, respectively, of the ultimate size of an ongoing FMD epidemic. The tools allow risk assessors to communicate timely, objectively, and efficiently to risk managers and less technically inclined stakeholders about the potential of introducing FMD suppressive emergency vaccination. To explore the FFI principle with complementary field data, we analyzed the FMD outbreaks in Argentina in 2001, with the 17 affected provinces as the units of observation. Two different vaccination strategies were applied during this extended epidemic. In a series of 5,000 Danish simulated FMD epidemics, the numbers of outbreak herds at day 14 and at the end of the epidemics were estimated under different control strategies. To simplify and optimize the presentation of the resulting data for urgent decisions to be made by the risk managers, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, as well as the negative and positive predictive values, using a chosen day-14 outbreak number as predictor of the magnitude of the number of remaining post-day-14 outbreaks under a continued basic control strategy. Furthermore, during an ongoing outbreak, the actual cumulative number of detected infected herds at day 14 will be known exactly. Among the number of epidemics lasting >14 days out of the 5,000 simulations under the basic control scenario, we selected those with an assumed accumulated number of detected outbreaks at day 14. The distribution of the estimated number of detected outbreaks at the end of the simulated epidemics minus the number at day 14 was estimated for the epidemics lasting more than 14 days. For comparison, the same was done for identical epidemics (i.e., seeded with the same primary outbreak herds) under a suppressive vaccination scenario. The results indicate that, during the course of an FMD

  4. Towards Risk Based Design for NASA's Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tumer, Irem Y.; Barrientos, Francesca; Meshkat, Leila

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the concept of Risk Based Design in the context of NASA s low volume, high cost missions. The concept of accounting for risk in the design lifecycle has been discussed and proposed under several research topics, including reliability, risk analysis, optimization, uncertainty, decision-based design, and robust design. This work aims to identify and develop methods to enable and automate a means to characterize and optimize risk, and use risk as a tradeable resource to make robust and reliable decisions, in the context of the uncertain and ambiguous stage of early conceptual design. This paper first presents a survey of the related topics explored in the design research community as they relate to risk based design. Then, a summary of the topics from the NASA-led Risk Colloquium is presented, followed by current efforts within NASA to account for risk in early design. Finally, a list of "risk elements", identified for early-phase conceptual design at NASA, is presented. The purpose is to lay the foundation and develop a roadmap for future work and collaborations for research to eliminate and mitigate these risk elements in early phase design.

  5. Decision Support Tool for the Management of Debris from Radiological Dispersal Devices and Other Incidents of National Significance

    SciTech Connect

    Lemieux, P.; Thorneloe, S.; Hayes, C.; Rodgers, M.; Christman, R.

    2008-07-01

    Unique challenges exist for the handling, transport, and disposal of debris resulting from homeland security incidents, disasters or other national emergencies. Access to guidance to facilitate decision making to ensure the safe and timely disposal of debris is critical to helping restore a community or region and prevent further contamination or spread of disease. For a radiological dispersal device (RDD), proper characterization of the quantity, properties, and level of contamination of debris can have a significant impact on cleanup costs and timelines. A suite of decision support tools (DSTs) is being developed by the U.S. EPA's Office of Research and Development to assist individuals responsible for making decisions associated with handling, transport, and disposal of such debris. The DSTs are location-specific to help identify specific facilities and contacts for making final disposal decisions. The DSTs provide quick reference to technical information, regulations, and other information to provide decision makers with assistance in guiding disposal decisions that are important for the protection of public health, first responders, and the environment. These tools are being developed in partnership with other U.S. government agencies, EPA program offices, industry, and state and local emergency response programs. (authors)

  6. Development of a 2nd Generation Decision Support Tool to Optimize Resource and Energy Recovery for Municipal Solid Waste

    EPA Science Inventory

    In 2012, EPA’s Office of Research and Development released the MSW decision support tool (MSW-DST) to help identify strategies for more sustainable MSW management. Depending upon local infrastructure, energy grid mix, population density, and waste composition and quantity, the m...

  7. Implementation of a Tool to Enhance Evidence-Informed Decision Making in Public Health: Identifying Barriers and Facilitating Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Heide, Iris; van der Noordt, Maaike; Proper, Karin I.; Schoemaker, Casper; van den Berg, Matthijs; Hamberg-van Reenen, Heleen H.

    2016-01-01

    One of the barriers regarding evidence-informed decision making is the gap between the needs of policy makers and the ways researchers present evidence. This pilot study evaluates the barriers and facilitators to the implementation of a tool to enhance transparent and unambiguous communication on scientific evidence by knowledge workers.…

  8. INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT APPROACHES AND REVITALIZATION TOOLS-ELECTRONIC (SMARTE): IMPROVING REVITALIZATION DECISIONS IN DAKOTA CITY, NEBRASKA

    EPA Science Inventory

    SMARTe (Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools-electronic) is a web-based decision support tool being developed by the Office of Research and Development (ORD) in partnership with the Office of Brownfields Cleanup and ...

  9. INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT APPROACHES AND REVITALIZATION TOOLS-ELECTRONIC (SMARTE): IMPROVING REVITALIZATION DECISIONS IN STELLA, MISSOURI

    EPA Science Inventory

    SMARTe (Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools-electronic) is a web-based decision support tool being developed by the Office of Research and Development (ORD) in partnership with the Office of Brownfields Cleanup and ...

  10. Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement - An Impact-based Decision Support Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blondin, Debra

    2016-04-01

    Historically, convection causes the highest number of air traffic constraints on the United States National Air Space (NAS). Increased NAS predictability allows traffic flow managers to more effectively initiate, amend or terminate planned or active traffic management initiatives, resulting in more efficient use of available airspace. A Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement (CAWS) is an impact-based decision support tool used for the timely delivery of high-confidence, high-relevance aviation convective weather forecasts to air traffic managers. The CAWS is a graphical and textual forecast produced by a collaborative team of meteorologists from the Aviation Weather Center (AWC), Center Weather Service Units, and airlines to bring attention to high impact areas of thunderstorms. The CAWS addresses thunderstorm initiation or movement into the airports having the highest volume of traffic or into traffic sensitive jet routes. These statements are assessed by planners at the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Air Route Traffic Control Centers and are used for planning traffic management initiatives to balance air traffic flow across the United States. The FAA and the airline industry use the CAWS to plan, manage, and execute operations in the NAS, thereby improving the system efficiency and safety and also saving dollars for industry and the traveling public.

  11. Soil-Bacterium Compatibility Model as a Decision-Making Tool for Soil Bioremediation.

    PubMed

    Horemans, Benjamin; Breugelmans, Philip; Saeys, Wouter; Springael, Dirk

    2017-02-07

    Bioremediation of organic pollutant contaminated soil involving bioaugmentation with dedicated bacteria specialized in degrading the pollutant is suggested as a green and economically sound alternative to physico-chemical treatment. However, intrinsic soil characteristics impact the success of bioaugmentation. The feasibility of using partial least-squares regression (PLSR) to predict the success of bioaugmentation in contaminated soil based on the intrinsic physico-chemical soil characteristics and, hence, to improve the success of bioaugmentation, was examined. As a proof of principle, PLSR was used to build soil-bacterium compatibility models to predict the bioaugmentation success of the phenanthrene-degrading Novosphingobium sp. LH128. The survival and biodegradation activity of strain LH128 were measured in 20 soils and correlated with the soil characteristics. PLSR was able to predict the strain's survival using 12 variables or less while the PAH-degrading activity of strain LH128 in soils that show survival was predicted using 9 variables. A three-step approach using the developed soil-bacterium compatibility models is proposed as a decision making tool and first estimation to select compatible soils and organisms and increase the chance of success of bioaugmentation.

  12. Generation of Look-Up Tables for Dynamic Job Shop Scheduling Decision Support Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oktaviandri, Muchamad; Hassan, Adnan; Mohd Shaharoun, Awaluddin

    2016-02-01

    Majority of existing scheduling techniques are based on static demand and deterministic processing time, while most job shop scheduling problem are concerned with dynamic demand and stochastic processing time. As a consequence, the solutions obtained from the traditional scheduling technique are ineffective wherever changes occur to the system. Therefore, this research intends to develop a decision support tool (DST) based on promising artificial intelligent that is able to accommodate the dynamics that regularly occur in job shop scheduling problem. The DST was designed through three phases, i.e. (i) the look-up table generation, (ii) inverse model development and (iii) integration of DST components. This paper reports the generation of look-up tables for various scenarios as a part in development of the DST. A discrete event simulation model was used to compare the performance among SPT, EDD, FCFS, S/OPN and Slack rules; the best performances measures (mean flow time, mean tardiness and mean lateness) and the job order requirement (inter-arrival time, due dates tightness and setup time ratio) which were compiled into look-up tables. The well-known 6/6/J/Cmax Problem from Muth and Thompson (1963) was used as a case study. In the future, the performance measure of various scheduling scenarios and the job order requirement will be mapped using ANN inverse model.

  13. Existing air sparging model and literature review for the development of an air sparging optimization decision tool

    SciTech Connect

    1995-08-01

    The objectives of this Report are two-fold: (1) to provide overviews of the state-of-the-art and state-of-the-practice with respect to air sparging technology, air sparging models and related or augmentation technologies (e.g., soil vapor extraction); and (2) to provide the basis for the development of the conceptual Decision Tool. The Project Team conducted an exhaustive review of available literature. The complete listing of the documents, numbering several hundred and reviewed as a part of this task, is included in Appendix A. Even with the large amount of material written regarding the development and application of air sparging, there still are significant gaps in the technical community`s understanding of the remediation technology. The results of the literature review are provided in Section 2. In Section 3, an overview of seventeen conceptual, theoretical, mathematical and empirical models is presented. Detailed descriptions of each of the models reviewed is provided in Appendix B. Included in Appendix D is a copy of the questionnaire used to compile information about the models. The remaining sections of the document reflect the analysis and synthesis of the information gleaned during the literature and model reviews. The results of these efforts provide the basis for development of the decision tree and conceptual decision tool for determining applicability and optimization of air sparging. The preliminary decision tree and accompanying information provided in Section 6 describe a three-tiered approach for determining air sparging applicability: comparison with established scenarios; calculation of conceptual design parameters; and the conducting of pilot-scale studies to confirm applicability. The final two sections of this document provide listings of the key success factors which will be used for evaluating the utility of the Decision Tool and descriptions of potential applications for Decision Tool use.

  14. The Design of an IEP Decision Aid: A Tool for Diverse Parents of Children with Autism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schuttler, Jessica Oeth

    2012-01-01

    Decision-making is a universal process that occurs constantly in life. Parent participation in educational decision-making is recognized as important by special education law, by special education and school psychology literature (Christenson & Sheridan, 2001; IDEIA, 2004;). Partnership in decision-making is especially important for parents of…

  15. Linking optimization and ecological models in a decision support tool for oyster restoration and management.

    PubMed

    North, E W; King, D M; Xu, J; Hood, R R; Newell, R I E; Paynter, K; Kellogg, M L; Liddel, M K; Boesch, D F

    2010-04-01

    Restoration of ecologically important marine species and habitats is restricted by funding constraints and hindered by lack of information about trade-offs among restoration goals and the effectiveness of alternative restoration strategies. Because ecosystems provide diverse human and ecological benefits, achieving one restoration benefit may take place at the expense of other benefits. This poses challenges when attempting to allocate limited resources to optimally achieve multiple benefits, and when defining measures of restoration success. We present a restoration decision-support tool that links ecosystem prediction and human use in a flexible "optimization" framework that clarifies important restoration trade-offs, makes location-specific recommendations, predicts benefits, and quantifies the associated costs (in the form of lost opportunities). The tool is illustrated by examining restoration options related to the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, which supported an historically important fishery in Chesapeake Bay and provides a range of ecosystem services such as removing seston, enhancing water clarity, and creating benthic habitat. We use an optimization approach to identify the locations where oyster restoration efforts are most likely to maximize one or more benefits such as reduction in seston, increase in light penetration, spawning stock enhancement, and harvest, subject to funding constraints and other limitations. This proof-of-concept Oyster Restoration Optimization model (ORO) incorporates predictions from three-dimensional water quality (nutrients-phytoplankton zooplankton-detritus [NPZD] with oyster filtration) and larval transport models; calculates size- and salinity-dependent growth, mortality, and fecundity of oysters; and includes economic costs of restoration efforts. Model results indicate that restoration of oysters in different regions of the Chesapeake Bay would maximize different suites of benefits due to interactions between

  16. Application of the US decision support tool for materials and waste management

    SciTech Connect

    Thorneloe, Susan A. Weitz, Keith Jambeck, Jenna

    2007-07-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) launched the Resource Conservation Challenge (RCC) in 2002 to help reduce waste and move towards more sustainable resource consumption. The objective of the RCC is to help communities, industries, and the public think in terms of materials management rather than waste disposal. Reducing cost, finding more efficient and effective strategies to manage municipal waste, and thinking in terms of materials management requires a holistic approach that considers life-cycle environmental tradeoffs. The US EPA's National Risk Management Research Laboratory has led the development of a municipal solid waste decision support tool (MSW-DST). The computer software can be used to calculate life-cycle environmental tradeoffs and full costs of different waste management or materials recovery programs. The environmental methodology is based on the use of life-cycle assessment and the cost methodology is based on the use of full-cost accounting. Life-cycle inventory (LCI) environmental impacts and costs are calculated from the point of collection, handling, transport, treatment, and disposal. For any materials that are recovered for recycling, offsets are calculated to reflect potential emissions savings from use of virgin materials. The use of the MSW-DST provides a standardized format and consistent basis to compare alternatives. This paper provides an illustration of how the MSW-DST can be used by evaluating ten management strategies for a hypothetical medium-sized community to compare the life-cycle environmental and cost tradeoffs. The LCI results from the MSW-DST are then used as inputs into another US EPA tool, the Tool for the reduction and assessment of chemical and other environmental impacts, to convert the LCI results into impact indicators. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate how the MSW-DST can be used to identify and balance multiple criteria (costs and environmental impacts) when evaluating options for materials and

  17. Middle-aged women’s decisions about body weight management: needs assessment and testing of a knowledge translation tool

    PubMed Central

    Stacey, Dawn; Jull, Janet; Beach, Sarah; Dumas, Alex; Strychar, Irene; Adamo, Kristi; Brochu, Martin; Prud’homme, Denis

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Objective This study aims to assess middle-aged women’s needs when making body weight management decisions and to evaluate a knowledge translation tool for addressing their needs. Methods A mixed-methods study used an interview-guided theory-based survey of professional women aged 40 to 65 years. The tool summarized evidence to address their needs and enabled women to monitor actions taken. Acceptability and usability were reported descriptively. Results Sixty female participants had a mean body mass index of 28.0 kg/m2 (range, 17.0-44.9 kg/m2), and half were premenopausal. Common options for losing (82%) or maintaining (18%) weight included increasing physical activity (60%), eating healthier (57%), and getting support (40%). Decision-making involved getting information on options (52%), soliciting others’ decisions/advice (20%), and being self-motivated (20%). Preferred information sources included written information (97%), counseling (90%), and social networking websites (43%). Five professionals (dietitian, personal trainer, occupational therapist, and two physicians) had similar responses. Of 53 women sent the tool, 27 provided acceptability feedback. They rated it as good to excellent for information on menopause (96%), body weight changes (85%), and managing body weight (85%). Most would tell others about it (81%). After 4 weeks of use, 25 women reported that the wording made sense (96%) and that the tool had clear instructions (92%) and was easy to use across time (88%). The amount of information was rated as just right (64%), but the tool had limited space for responding (72%). Conclusions When making decisions about body weight management, women’s needs were “getting information” and “getting support.” The knowledge translation tool was acceptable and usable, but further evaluation is required. PMID:25816120

  18. 5As Team obesity intervention in primary care: development and evaluation of shared decision-making weight management tools.

    PubMed

    Osunlana, A M; Asselin, J; Anderson, R; Ogunleye, A A; Cave, A; Sharma, A M; Campbell-Scherer, D L

    2015-08-01

    Despite several clinical practice guidelines, there remains a considerable gap in prevention and management of obesity in primary care. To address the need for changing provider behaviour, a randomized controlled trial with convergent mixed method evaluation, the 5As Team (5AsT) study, was conducted. As part of the 5AsT intervention, the 5AsT tool kit was developed. This paper describes the development process and evaluation of these tools. Tools were co-developed by the multidisciplinary research team and the 5AsT, which included registered nurses/nurse practitioners (n = 15), mental health workers (n = 7) and registered dieticians (n = 7), who were previously randomized to the 5AsT intervention group at a primary care network in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. The 5AsT tool development occurred through a practice/implementation-oriented, need-based, iterative process during learning collaborative sessions of the 5AsT intervention. Feedback during tool development was received through field notes and final provider evaluation was carried out through anonymous questionnaires. Twelve tools were co-developed with 5AsT. All tools were evaluated as either 'most useful' or 'moderately useful' in primary care practice by the 5AsT. Four key findings during 5AsT tool development were the need for: tools that were adaptive, tools to facilitate interdisciplinary practice, tools to help patients understand realistic expectations for weight loss and shared decision-making tools for goal setting and relapse prevention. The 5AsT tools are primary care tools which extend the utility of the 5As of obesity management framework in clinical practice.

  19. Safe use of antithrombotics for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: consideration of risk assessment tools to support decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Bajorek, Beata

    2014-01-01

    Clinical guidelines advocate stroke prevention therapy in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, specifically anticoagulation. However, the decision to initiate treatment is based on the risk (bleeding) versus benefit (prevention of stroke) of therapy, which is often difficult to assess. This review identifies available risk assessment tools to facilitate the safe and optimal use of antithrombotic therapy for stroke prevention in AF. Using key databases and online clinical resources to search the literature (1992–2012), 19 tools have been identified and published to date: 11 addressing stroke risk, 7 addressing bleeding risk and 1 integrating both risk assessments. The stroke risk assessment tools (e.g. CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc) share common risk factors: age, hypertension, previous cerebrovascular attack. The bleeding risk assessment tools (e.g. HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED) share common risk factors: age, previous bleeding, renal and liver impairment. In terms of their development, six of the stroke risk assessment tools have been derived from clinical studies, whilst five are based on refinement of existing tools or expert consensus. Many have been evaluated by prospective application to data from real patient cohorts. Bleeding risk assessment tools have been derived from trials, or generated from patient data and then validated via further studies. One identified tool (i.e. Computerised Antithrombotic Risk Assessment Tool [CARAT]) integrates both stroke and bleeding, and specifically considers other key factors in decision-making regarding antithrombotic therapy, particularly those increasing the risk of medication misadventure with treatment (e.g. function, drug interactions, medication adherence). This highlights that whilst separate tools are available to assess stroke and bleeding risk, they do not estimate the relative risk versus benefit of treatment in an individual patient nor consider key medication safety aspects. More effort is needed to synthesize these

  20. Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, T.H.

    1995-12-31

    By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

  1. The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arndt, D. S.; Brewer, M.; Heim, R. R., Jr.

    2014-12-01

    Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a past meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around providing operational global drought monitoring products and assessments, incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are

  2. Evaluation of a novel electronic genetic screening and clinical decision support tool in prenatal clinical settings.

    PubMed

    Edelman, Emily A; Lin, Bruce K; Doksum, Teresa; Drohan, Brian; Edelson, Vaughn; Dolan, Siobhan M; Hughes, Kevin; O'Leary, James; Vasquez, Lisa; Copeland, Sara; Galvin, Shelley L; DeGroat, Nicole; Pardanani, Setul; Gregory Feero, W; Adams, Claire; Jones, Renee; Scott, Joan

    2014-07-01

    "The Pregnancy and Health Profile" (PHP) is a free prenatal genetic screening and clinical decision support (CDS) software tool for prenatal providers. PHP collects family health history (FHH) during intake and provides point-of-care risk assessment for providers and education for patients. This pilot study evaluated patient and provider responses to PHP and effects of using PHP in practice. PHP was implemented in four clinics. Surveys assessed provider confidence and knowledge and patient and provider satisfaction with PHP. Data on the implementation process were obtained through semi-structured interviews with administrators. Quantitative survey data were analyzed using Chi square test, Fisher's exact test, paired t tests, and multivariate logistic regression. Open-ended survey questions and interviews were analyzed using qualitative thematic analysis. Of the 83% (513/618) of patients that provided feedback, 97% felt PHP was easy to use and 98% easy to understand. Thirty percent (21/71) of participating physicians completed both pre- and post-implementation feedback surveys [13 obstetricians (OBs) and 8 family medicine physicians (FPs)]. Confidence in managing genetic risks significantly improved for OBs on 2/6 measures (p values ≤0.001) but not for FPs. Physician knowledge did not significantly change. Providers reported value in added patient engagement and reported mixed feedback about the CDS report. We identified key steps, resources, and staff support required to implement PHP in a clinical setting. To our knowledge, this study is the first to report on the integration of patient-completed, electronically captured and CDS-enabled FHH software into primary prenatal practice. PHP is acceptable to patients and providers. Key to successful implementation in the future will be customization options and interoperability with electronic health records.

  3. Effects of Airport Tower Controller Decision Support Tool on Controllers Head-Up Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hayashi, Miwa; Cruz Lopez, Jose M.

    2013-01-01

    Despite that aircraft positions and movements can be easily monitored on the radar displays at major airports nowadays, it is still important for the air traffic control tower (ATCT) controllers to look outside the window as much as possible to assure safe operations of traffic management. The present paper investigates whether an introduction of the NASA's proposed Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA), a decision support tool for the ATCT controller, would increase or decrease the controllers' head-up time. SARDA provides the controller departure-release schedule advisories, i.e., when to release each departure aircraft in order to minimize individual aircraft's fuel consumption on taxiways and simultaneously maximize the overall runway throughput. The SARDA advisories were presented on electronic flight strips (EFS). To investigate effects on the head-up time, a human-in-the-loop simulation experiment with two retired ATCT controller participants was conducted in a high-fidelity ATCT cab simulator with 360-degree computer-generated out-the-window view. Each controller participant wore a wearable video camera on a side of their head with the camera facing forward. The video data were later used to calculate their line of sight at each moment and eventually identify their head-up times. Four sessions were run with the SARDA advisories, and four sessions were run without (baseline). Traffic-load levels were varied in each session. The same set of user interface - EFS and the radar displays - were used in both the advisory and baseline sessions to make them directly comparable. The paper reports the findings and discusses their implications.

  4. The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heim, R. R.; Brewer, M.

    2012-12-01

    Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a recent meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are underway with an emphasis on information and decision making, and how to

  5. Homeland security R&D roadmapping : risk-based methodological options.

    SciTech Connect

    Brandt, Larry D.

    2008-12-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories support the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in the development and execution of a research and development (R&D) strategy to improve the nation's preparedness against terrorist threats. Current approaches to planning and prioritization of DHS research decisions are informed by risk assessment tools and processes intended to allocate resources to programs that are likely to have the highest payoff. Early applications of such processes have faced challenges in several areas, including characterization of the intelligent adversary and linkage to strategic risk management decisions. The risk-based analysis initiatives at Sandia Laboratories could augment the methodologies currently being applied by the DHS and could support more credible R&D roadmapping for national homeland security programs. Implementation and execution issues facing homeland security R&D initiatives within the national laboratories emerged as a particular concern in this research.

  6. The Carpe Diem West Academy: Connecting Water Resources Practitioners and Decision Support Tool Developers in Pursuit of Climate Change Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, H. C.; morino, K.; Wiltshire, K.

    2012-12-01

    Water resources practitioners face a confusing and often overwhelming plethora of evolving tools and methods for considering climate change in planning and management. Many tools require substantial investments in data gathering, analysis, or stakeholder engagement. Many address only pieces of the climate change adaptation challenge without clear interconnection. Additionally, there are few standards of practice in the application of these tools. The Carpe Diem West Academy provides knowledge sharing, community building, and collaboration among water resources practitioners and decision support tool developers to facilitate use of science in adaptation efforts. The technical core of the Academy is a web portal (carpediemwestacademy.org) that uses multiple frameworks, including iterative risk management, to organize an interactive compendium of over 150 tools and training resources developed by others, that are useful for water resources planning and management, including consideration of interconnections with other resources such as energy and ecosystem services. Academy users are supported through a variety of experimental approaches, including webinars and facilitated web discussion, for efficiently engaging water resources practitioners, at a scale that is practical to sustain, that fosters shared learning about tools and their application in adaptation efforts, and that can support establishment of best practices for incorporating uncertainty and climate change. The Academy has also been useful for identifying gaps where additional tools, methods, or professional development training are needed, and for providing feedback to tool developers. We report on key findings on the effectiveness of the Academy's multiple approaches.

  7. New Interoperable Tools to Facilitate Decision-Making to Support Community Sustainability

    EPA Science Inventory

    Communities, regional planning authorities, regulatory agencies, and other decision-making bodies do not currently have adequate access to spatially explicit information crucial to making decisions that allow them to consider a full accounting of the costs, benefits, and trade-of...

  8. A Safety Risk Assessment Methodology for Decision Support Systems with an Application to the Expedite Departure Path Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Snyder, Phillip T.; Landis, Michael R. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    In support of the NASA Advanced Air Transportation Technologies Project, the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center has developed a methodology to perform safety risk assessments for air traffic control/air traffic management decision Support systems and concepts. Changes in controller, pilot, and/or airline dispatcher tasks that are affected by the decision support system are related to associated hazards. These hazards are then assessed either qualitatively or quantitatively in terms of likelihood of occurring and the impact if they do occur. Those items that show a potential safety hazard level increase can then have research plans developed to address those safety risks areas. An application of this methodology will he demonstrated using the AATT decision support tool Expedite Departure Path.

  9. A Life-Cycle Cost Estimating Methodology for NASA-Developed Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Jianzhong Jay; Datta, Koushik; Landis, Michael R. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a life-cycle cost (LCC) estimating methodology for air traffic control Decision Support Tools (DSTs) under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), using a combination of parametric, analogy, and expert opinion methods. There is no one standard methodology and technique that is used by NASA or by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for LCC estimation of prospective Decision Support Tools. Some of the frequently used methodologies include bottom-up, analogy, top-down, parametric, expert judgement, and Parkinson's Law. The developed LCC estimating methodology can be visualized as a three-dimensional matrix where the three axes represent coverage, estimation, and timing. This paper focuses on the three characteristics of this methodology that correspond to the three axes.

  10. Analysis of a Decision Support System for CASE Tool Selection and the Specification of an Ada to SQL Abstract Interface

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-12-01

    Decision Support System (DSS) design that would help guide the facilitators to develop a more substantial tool to meet future maintainability and...Figure 2 illustrates this process. ITEP Test and Evaluation Process Software Evaluation Software Value Characteristic Figure 2. STSC Test and Evaluation...the dynamic interface. The process that had to be followed from an application standpoint using [17:12-.-125] as a guideline was: prepare the STMT

  11. Demonstration of Decision Support Tools for Sustainable Development - An Application on Alternative Fuels in the Greater Yellowstone-Teton Region

    SciTech Connect

    Shropshire, D.E.; Cobb, D.A.; Worhach, P.; Jacobson, J.J.; Berrett, S.

    2000-12-30

    The Demonstration of Decision Support Tools for Sustainable Development project integrated the Bechtel/Nexant Industrial Materials Exchange Planner and the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory System Dynamic models, demonstrating their capabilities on alternative fuel applications in the Greater Yellowstone-Teton Park system. The combined model, called the Dynamic Industrial Material Exchange, was used on selected test cases in the Greater Yellow Teton Parks region to evaluate economic, environmental, and social implications of alternative fuel applications, and identifying primary and secondary industries. The test cases included looking at compressed natural gas applications in Teton National Park and Jackson, Wyoming, and studying ethanol use in Yellowstone National Park and gateway cities in Montana. With further development, the system could be used to assist decision-makers (local government, planners, vehicle purchasers, and fuel suppliers) in selecting alternative fuels, vehicles, and developing AF infrastructures. The system could become a regional AF market assessment tool that could help decision-makers understand the behavior of the AF market and conditions in which the market would grow. Based on this high level market assessment, investors and decision-makers would become more knowledgeable of the AF market opportunity before developing detailed plans and preparing financial analysis.

  12. Multi-stage ranking of emergency technology alternatives for water source pollution accidents using a fuzzy group decision making tool.

    PubMed

    Qu, Jianhua; Meng, Xianlin; You, Hong

    2016-06-05

    Due to the increasing number of unexpected water source pollution events, selection of the most appropriate disposal technology for a specific pollution scenario is of crucial importance to the security of urban water supplies. However, the formulation of the optimum option is considerably difficult owing to the substantial uncertainty of such accidents. In this research, a multi-stage technical screening and evaluation tool is proposed to determine the optimal technique scheme, considering the areas of pollutant elimination both in drinking water sources and water treatment plants. In stage 1, a CBR-based group decision tool was developed to screen available technologies for different scenarios. Then, the threat degree caused by the pollution was estimated in stage 2 using a threat evaluation system and was partitioned into four levels. For each threat level, a corresponding set of technique evaluation criteria weights was obtained using Group-G1. To identify the optimization alternatives corresponding to the different threat levels, an extension of TOPSIS, a multi-criteria interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy decision making technique containing the four arrays of criteria weights, to a group decision environment was investigated in stage 3. The effectiveness of the developed tool was elaborated by two actual thallium-contaminated scenarios associated with different threat levels.

  13. Tools to Support Policy Decisions Related to Treatment Strategies and Surveillance of Schistosomiasis Japonica towards Elimination

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Xu, Jing; Chen, Hong-Gen; Wang, Tian-Ping; Huang, Xi-Bao; Lin, Dan-Dan; Wang, Qi-Zhi; Tang, Li; Guo, Jia-Gang; Wu, Xiao-Hua; Feng, Ting; Chen, Jia-Xu; Guo, Jian; Chen, Shao-Hong; Li, Hao; Wu, Zhong-Dao; Peeling, Rosanna W.

    2011-01-01

    Background Appropriate diagnostics to monitor disease trends and assess the effectiveness and impact of interventions are essential for guiding treatment strategies at different thresholds of schistosomiasis transmission and for certifying elimination. Field validation of these assays is urgently needed before they can be adopted to support policy decisions of the national programme for control and elimination of schistosomiasis in P.R. China. We compared the efficacy and utility of different immunoassays in guiding control strategies and monitoring the endemic status of S. japonicum infections towards elimination. Methodology/Principal Findings A cross-sectional survey was conducted in seven villages with different transmission intensities settings to assess the performance and utility of three immunoassays, e.g., an indirect hemagglutination assay (IHA_JX), an enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA_SZ), and a dot immunogold filtration assay (DIGFA_SH). 6,248 individuals aged 6–65 years old who gave consent and supplied their stool and blood samples were included for data analysis. Results showed that ELISA_SZ performed significantly higher sensitivity (95.45%, 95%CI: 92.94–97.97%) than IHA_JX (87.59%, 95%CI: 83.51–91.49%) and DIGFA_SH (79.55%, 95%CI: 74.68–84.41%), especially in subgroups with very low infection intensity. The specificity of ELISA_SZ, IHA_JX, DIGFA_SH in 6–9 year olds with occasional exposure was nearly 90%. DIGFA_SH performed the highest screening efficacy for patients among three assays with overall positive predicative value of 13.07% (95%CI: 11.42–14.72%). We found a positive correlation of antibody positive rate of IHA_JX with results of stool examination in age strata (r = 0.70, P<0.001). Seropositivity of IHA_JX in children aged 6–9 years old showed an excellent correlation with prevalence of schistosome infection in the seven communities (r = 0.77, P<0.05). Conclusions/Significance Studies suggest that ELISA

  14. Co-Production with Water Managers to Improve Applicability and Adoption of an Emerging Decision Support Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, R.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Dilling, L.

    2015-12-01

    In water management, changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events (especially droughts and floods) are likely to require modifications of management strategies and, in some cases, new infrastructure. In light of these and other challenges, there is a serious need to improve the applicability of water resources research to real-world decision making. Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) have shown promise in being able to generate and evaluate new planning alternatives under these conditions, but there has not yet been work that seeks to use a co-production framework to extensively test their efficacy. A group of engineering, social science, and climate researchers collaborated with practitioners from two municipal water providers to design this interdisciplinary study. The focus of the research is to co-produce and test a MOEA-based decision tool directly with a group of water managers from six water utilities from Colorado's Front Range: Cities of Boulder, Aurora, and Fort Collins, Denver Water, Colorado Springs Utilities, and Northern Water. As part of the co-production of the MOEA testbed, managers provided critical insight on problem formulations, hydrology and demand scenarios, and a hypothetical water supply network using a workshop format. A problem formulation consists of objectives that measure performance, management options that decision makers can change, and constraints that represent acceptable limits for performance. The hypothetical network is based on feedback from our participating utilities and is representative of the water management context along the Front Range of Colorado. This presentation will focus on results from an initial workshop with water managers and provide insights on how our approach can help bridge the gap between decision support research and real-world water management. Our study seeks to inform a set of best practices for incorporating a MOEA-based decision tool in the decision making processes of

  15. Influence Diagrams as Decision-Making Tools for Pesticide Risk Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    The pesticide policy arena is filled with discussion of probabilistic approaches to assess ecological risk, however, similar discussions about implementing formal probabilistic methods in pesticide risk decision making are less common. An influence diagram approach is proposed f...

  16. Mass casualty modelling: a spatial tool to support triage decision making

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background During a mass casualty incident, evacuation of patients to the appropriate health care facility is critical to survival. Despite this, no existing system provides the evidence required to make informed evacuation decisions from the scene of the incident. To mitigate this absence and enable more informed decision making, a web based spatial decision support system (SDSS) was developed. This system supports decision making by providing data regarding hospital proximity, capacity, and treatment specializations to decision makers at the scene of the incident. Methods This web-based SDSS utilizes pre-calculated driving times to estimate the actual driving time to each hospital within the inclusive trauma system of the large metropolitan region within which it is situated. In calculating and displaying its results, the model incorporates both road network and hospital data (e.g. capacity, treatment specialties, etc.), and produces results in a matter of seconds, as is required in a MCI situation. In addition, its application interface allows the user to map the incident location and assists in the execution of triage decisions. Results Upon running the model, driving time from the MCI location to the surrounding hospitals is quickly displayed alongside information regarding hospital capacity and capability, thereby assisting the user in the decision-making process. Conclusions The use of SDSS in the prioritization of MCI evacuation decision making is potentially valuable in cases of mass casualty. The key to this model is the utilization of pre-calculated driving times from each hospital in the region to each point on the road network. The incorporation of real-time traffic and hospital capacity data would further improve this model. PMID:21663636

  17. E-DECIDER: Using Earth Science Data and Modeling Tools to Develop Decision Support for Earthquake Disaster Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glasscoe, M. T.; Donnellan, A.; Parker, J. W.; Stough, T. M.; Burl, M. C.; Pierce, M.; Wang, J.; Ma, Y.; Rundle, J. B.; yoder, M. R.; Bawden, G. W.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquake Data Enhanced Cyber-Infrastructure for Disaster Evaluation and Response (E-DECIDER) is a NASA-funded project developing new capabilities for decision-making utilizing remote sensing data and modeling software to provide decision support for earthquake disaster management and response. Geodetic imaging data, including from inteferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and GPS, have a rich scientific heritage for use in earthquake research. Survey grade GPS was developed in the 1980s and the first InSAR image of an earthquake was produced for the 1992 Landers event. As more of these types of data have become increasingly available they have also shown great utility for providing key information for disaster response. Work has been done to translate these data into useful and actionable information for decision makers in the event of an earthquake disaster. In addition to observed data, modeling tools provide essential preliminary estimates while data are still being collected and/or processed, which can be refined as data products become available. Now, with more data and better models, we are able apply these to responders who need easy tools and routinely produced data products. E-DECIDER incorporates the earthquake forecasting methodology and geophysical modeling tools developed through NASA's QuakeSim project. Remote sensing and geodetic data, in conjunction with modeling and forecasting tools allows us to provide both long-term planning information for disaster management decision makers as well as short-term information following earthquake events (i.e. identifying areas where the greatest deformation and damage has occurred and emergency services may need to be focused). E-DECIDER has taken advantage of the legacy of Earth science data, including MODIS, Landsat, SCIGN, PBO, UAVSAR, and modeling tools such as the ones developed by QuakeSim, in order to deliver successful decision support products for earthquake disaster response. The project has

  18. Development and validation of a tool to measure self-confidence and anxiety in nursing students during clinical decision making.

    PubMed

    White, Krista A

    2014-01-01

    Clinical decision making (CDM) is a cornerstone skill for nurses. Self-confidence and anxiety affect the learning and adeptness of CDM. This study aimed to develop and test a quantitative tool to assess undergraduate nursing students' self-confidence and anxiety during CDM. The 27-item Nursing Anxiety and Self-Confidence with Clinical Decision Making (NASC-CDM) scale is a 6-point, Likert-type tool with two subscales. Two samples of prelicensure associate and baccalaureate nursing students participated in the pilot (n = 303) and main testing (n = 242) phases of the study. Construct validity assessment, using exploratory factor analysis, produced a stable three-dimensional scale. Convergent validity assessment produced positive, moderate, and statistically significant correlations of the tool sub-scales with two existing instruments. Internal consistency reliability was assessed for each subscale (self-confidence, α = .97; anxiety, α = .96). The NASC-CDM scale may be a useful assessment tool for nurse educators to help novice clinicians improve CDM skills.

  19. How to Quantify Sustainable Development: A Risk-Based Approach to Water Quality Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarang, Amin; Vahedi, Arman; Shamsai, Abolfazl

    2008-02-01

    Since the term was coined in the Brundtland report in 1987, the issue of sustainable development has been challenged in terms of quantification. Different policy options may lend themselves more or less to the underlying principles of sustainability, but no analytical tools are available for a more in-depth assessment of the degree of sustainability. Overall, there are two major schools of thought employing the sustainability concept in managerial decisions: those of measuring and those of monitoring. Measurement of relative sustainability is the key issue in bridging the gap between theory and practice of sustainability of water resources systems. The objective of this study is to develop a practical tool for quantifying and assessing the degree of relative sustainability of water quality systems based on risk-based indicators, including reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. Current work on the Karoun River, the largest river in Iran, has included the development of an integrated model consisting of two main parts: a water quality simulation subroutine to evaluate Dissolved Oxygen Biological Oxygen Demand (DO-BOD) response, and an estimation of risk-based indicators subroutine via the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We also developed a simple waste load allocation model via Least Cost and Uniform Treatment approaches in order to consider the optimal point of pollutants control costs given a desired reliability value which addresses DO in two different targets. The Risk-based approach developed herein, particularly via the FORM technique, appears to be an appropriately efficient tool for estimating the relative sustainability. Moreover, our results in the Karoun system indicate that significant changes in sustainability values are possible through dedicating money for treatment and strict pollution controls while simultaneously requiring a technical advance along change in current attitudes for environment protection.

  20. How to quantify sustainable development: a risk-based approach to water quality management.

    PubMed

    Sarang, Amin; Vahedi, Arman; Shamsai, Abolfazl

    2008-02-01

    Since the term was coined in the Brundtland report in 1987, the issue of sustainable development has been challenged in terms of quantification. Different policy options may lend themselves more or less to the underlying principles of sustainability, but no analytical tools are available for a more in-depth assessment of the degree of sustainability. Overall, there are two major schools of thought employing the sustainability concept in managerial decisions: those of measuring and those of monitoring. Measurement of relative sustainability is the key issue in bridging the gap between theory and practice of sustainability of water resources systems. The objective of this study is to develop a practical tool for quantifying and assessing the degree of relative sustainability of water quality systems based on risk-based indicators, including reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. Current work on the Karoun River, the largest river in Iran, has included the development of an integrated model consisting of two main parts: a water quality simulation subroutine to evaluate Dissolved Oxygen Biological Oxygen Demand (DO-BOD) response, and an estimation of risk-based indicators subroutine via the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We also developed a simple waste load allocation model via Least Cost and Uniform Treatment approaches in order to consider the optimal point of pollutants control costs given a desired reliability value which addresses DO in two different targets. The Risk-based approach developed herein, particularly via the FORM technique, appears to be an appropriately efficient tool for estimating the relative sustainability. Moreover, our results in the Karoun system indicate that significant changes in sustainability values are possible through dedicating money for treatment and strict pollution controls while simultaneously requiring a technical advance along change in current attitudes for environment protection.

  1. A methodology and decision support tool for informing state-level bioenergy policymaking: New Jersey biofuels as a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brennan-Tonetta, Margaret

    This dissertation seeks to provide key information and a decision support tool that states can use to support long-term goals of fossil fuel displacement and greenhouse gas reductions. The research yields three outcomes: (1) A methodology that allows for a comprehensive and consistent inventory and assessment of bioenergy feedstocks in terms of type, quantity, and energy potential. Development of a standardized methodology for consistent inventorying of biomass resources fosters research and business development of promising technologies that are compatible with the state's biomass resource base. (2) A unique interactive decision support tool that allows for systematic bioenergy analysis and evaluation of policy alternatives through the generation of biomass inventory and energy potential data for a wide variety of feedstocks and applicable technologies, using New Jersey as a case study. Development of a database that can assess the major components of a bioenergy system in one tool allows for easy evaluation of technology, feedstock and policy options. The methodology and decision support tool is applicable to other states and regions (with location specific modifications), thus contributing to the achievement of state and federal goals of renewable energy utilization. (3) Development of policy recommendations based on the results of the decision support tool that will help to guide New Jersey into a sustainable renewable energy future. The database developed in this research represents the first ever assessment of bioenergy potential for New Jersey. It can serve as a foundation for future research and modifications that could increase its power as a more robust policy analysis tool. As such, the current database is not able to perform analysis of tradeoffs across broad policy objectives such as economic development vs. CO2 emissions, or energy independence vs. source reduction of solid waste. Instead, it operates one level below that with comparisons of kWh or

  2. Effect of a Novel Clinical Decision Support Tool on the Efficiency and Accuracy of Treatment Recommendations for Cholesterol Management

    PubMed Central

    Scheitel, Marianne R.; Kessler, Maya E.; Shellum, Jane L.; Peters, Steve G.; Milliner, Dawn S.; Liu, Hongfang; Elayavilli, Ravikumar Komandur; Poterack, Karl A.; Miksch, Timothy A.; Boysen, Jennifer J.; Hankey, Ron A.

    2017-01-01

    Summary Background The 2013 American College of Cardiology / American Heart Association Guidelines for the Treatment of Blood Cholesterol emphasize treatment based on cardiovascular risk. But finding time in a primary care visit to manually calculate cardiovascular risk and prescribe treatment based on risk is challenging. We developed an informatics-based clinical decision support tool, MayoExpertAdvisor, to deliver automated cardiovascular risk scores and guideline-based treatment recommendations based on patient-specific data in the electronic heath record. Objective To assess the impact of our clinical decision support tool on the efficiency and accuracy of clinician calculation of cardiovascular risk and its effect on the delivery of guideline-consistent treatment recommendations. Methods Clinicians were asked to review the EHR records of selected patients. We evaluated the amount of time and the number of clicks and keystrokes needed to calculate cardiovascular risk and provide a treatment recommendation with and without our clinical decision support tool. We also compared the treatment recommendation arrived at by clinicians with and without the use of our tool to those recommended by the guidelines. Results Clinicians saved 3 minutes and 38 seconds in completing both tasks with MayoExpertAdvisor, used 94 fewer clicks and 23 fewer key strokes, and improved accuracy from the baseline of 60.61% to 100% for both the risk score calculation and guideline-consistent treatment recommendation. Conclusion Informatics solution can greatly improve the efficiency and accuracy of individualized treatment recommendations and have the potential to increase guideline compliance. PMID:28174820

  3. Development of an Automated Decision-Making Tool for Supervisory Control System

    SciTech Connect

    Cetiner, Sacit M.; Muhlheim, Michael David; Flanagan, George F.; Fugate, David L.; Kisner, Roger A.

    2014-09-01

    This technical report was generated as a product of the Supervisory Control for Multi-Modular Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Plants project within the Instrumentation, Control and Human-Machine Interface technology area under the Advanced Small Modular Reactor (AdvSMR) Research and Development Program of the US Department of Energy. The report documents the definition of strategies, functional elements, and the structural architecture of a supervisory control system for multi-modular AdvSMR plants. This research activity advances the state of the art by incorporating real-time, probabilistic-based decision-making into the supervisory control system architectural layers through the introduction of a tiered-plant system approach. The report provides background information on the state of the art of automated decision-making, including the description of existing methodologies. It then presents a description of a generalized decision-making framework, upon which the supervisory control decision-making algorithm is based. The probabilistic portion of automated decision-making is demonstrated through a simple hydraulic loop example.

  4. Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

    2014-12-01

    Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

  5. A quantitative risk-based model for reasoning over critical system properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feather, M. S.

    2002-01-01

    This position paper suggests the use of a quantitative risk-based model to help support reeasoning and decision making that spans many of the critical properties such as security, safety, survivability, fault tolerance, and real-time.

  6. Computer Simulation as a Tool for Assessing Decision-Making in Pandemic Influenza Response Training

    PubMed Central

    Leaming, James M.; Adoff, Spencer; Terndrup, Thomas E.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: We sought to develop and test a computer-based, interactive simulation of a hypothetical pandemic influenza outbreak. Fidelity was enhanced with integrated video and branching decision trees, built upon the 2007 federal planning assumptions. We conducted a before-and-after study of the simulation effectiveness to assess the simulations' ability to assess participants' beliefs regarding their own hospitals' mass casualty incident preparedness. Methods: Development: Using a Delphi process, we finalized a simulation that serves up a minimum of over 50 key decisions to 6 role-players on networked laptops in a conference area. The simulation played out an 8-week scenario, beginning with pre-incident decisions. Testing: Role-players and trainees (N=155) were facilitated to make decisions during the pandemic. Because decision responses vary, the simulation plays out differently, and a casualty counter quantifies hypothetical losses. The facilitator reviews and critiques key factors for casualty control, including effective communications, working with external organizations, development of internal policies and procedures, maintaining supplies and services, technical infrastructure support, public relations and training. Pre- and post-survey data were compared on trainees. Results: Post-simulation trainees indicated a greater likelihood of needing to improve their organization in terms of communications, mass casualty incident planning, public information and training. Participants also recognized which key factors required immediate attention at their own home facilities. Conclusion: The use of a computer-simulation was effective in providing a facilitated environment for determining the perception of preparedness, evaluating general preparedness concepts and introduced participants to critical decisions involved in handling a regional pandemic influenza surge. PMID:23687542

  7. WMOST: A tool for assessing cost-benefits of watershed management decisions affecting coastal resilience

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Watershed Management Optimization Support Tool (WMOST v.1) was released by the US Environmental Protection Agency in December 2013 (http://www2.epa.gov/exposure-assessment-models/wmost-10-download-page). The objective of WMOST is to serve as a public-domain screening tool th...

  8. Application of best practice approaches for designing decision support tools: The preparatory education about clinical trials (PRE-ACT) study

    PubMed Central

    Fleisher, Linda; Ruggieri, Dominique G.; Miller, Suzanne M.; Manne, Sharon; Albrecht, Terrance; Buzaglo, Joanne; Collins, Michael A.; Katz, Michael; Kinzy, Tyler G.; Liu, Tasnuva; Manning, Cheri; Charap, Ellen Specker; Millard, Jennifer; Miller, Dawn M.; Poole, David; Raivitch, Stephanie; Roach, Nancy; Ross, Eric A.; Meropol, Neal J.

    2014-01-01

    Objective This article describes the rigorous development process and initial feedback of the PRE-ACT (Preparatory Education About Clinical Trials) web-based- intervention designed to improve preparation for decision making in cancer clinical trials. Methods The multi-step process included stakeholder input, formative research, user testing and feedback. Diverse teams (researchers, advocates and developers) participated including content refinement, identification of actors, and development of video scripts. Patient feedback was provided in the final production period and through a vanguard group (N = 100) from the randomized trial. Results Patients/advocates confirmed barriers to cancer clinical trial participation, including lack of awareness and knowledge, fear of side effects, logistical concerns, and mistrust. Patients indicated they liked the tool’s user-friendly nature, the organized and comprehensive presentation of the subject matter, and the clarity of the videos. Conclusion The development process serves as an example of operationalizing best practice approaches and highlights the value of a multi-disciplinary team to develop a theory-based, sophisticated tool that patients found useful in their decision making process. Practice implications Best practice approaches can be addressed and are important to ensure evidence-based tools that are of value to patients and supports the usefulness of a process map in the development of e-health tools. PMID:24813474

  9. Application and Survey of Business Intelligence (BI) Tools within the Context of Military Decision Making

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-06-01

    59  V  RAPIDMINER DATA AND TEXT MINING SOFTWARE .................................61  A.  DESIGN PERSPECTIVE... RapidMiner . .................................................................................64  Figure 36  Structure of data in the repository...69  Figure 40  Result Perspective of RapidMiner : Decision

  10. An Analysis of the EPA Report on Pipeline Renewal Decision Making Tools and Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Few DSS are commercially available for technology selection as most utilities make decisions based on in-house and consultant expertise (Matthews et al., 2011). This review presents some of the models proposed over the past 15 years for selecting technologies in the U.S. and wor...

  11. Analysis of Wastewater and Water System Renewal Decision-Making Tools and Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    In regards to the development of software for decision support for pipeline renewal, most of the attention to date has been paid to the development of asset management models which help an owner decide on which portions of a system to prioritize for needed actions. There has not ...

  12. The Potato Systems Planner: A Successful Decision Support Tool for Growers

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An interdisciplinary team evaluated 14 cropping systems for their impacts on potato yield and quality, nutrient availability, plant diseases, soil microorganisms, potential profitability, economic risk, and other factors. Results were integrated into the “Potato Systems Planner” decision support to...

  13. The Clinical Intuition Exploration Guide: A Decision-Making Tool for Counselors and Supervisors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jeffrey, Aaron

    2012-01-01

    Clinical intuition is a common experience among counselors, yet many do not know what to do with intuition when it occurs. This article reviews the role intuition plays in clinical work and presents the research-based Clinical Intuition Exploration Guide to help counselors navigate the decision-making process. The guide consists of self-reflection…

  14. Using Modern Digital Photography Tools to Guide Management Decisions on Forested Land

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Craft, Brandon; Barlow, Rebecca; Kush, John; Hemard, Charles

    2016-01-01

    Forestland management depends on assessing changes that occur over time. Long-term photo point monitoring is a low-cost method for documenting these changes. Using forestry as an example, this article highlights the idea that long-term photo point monitoring can be used to improve many types of land management decision making. Guidance on…

  15. Developing and Testing an Online Tool for Teaching GIS Concepts Applied to Spatial Decision-Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carver, Steve; Evans, Andy; Kingston, Richard

    2004-01-01

    The development and testing of a Web-based GIS e-learning resource is described. This focuses on the application of GIS for siting a nuclear waste disposal facility and the associated principles of spatial decision-making using Boolean and weighted overlay methods. Initial student experiences in using the system are analysed as part of a research…

  16. Toward the development of decision supporting tools that can be used for safe production and use of nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Som, Claudia; Nowack, Bernd; Krug, Harald F; Wick, Peter

    2013-03-19

    comparable risk assessment ("approximate" risk assessment). Researchers have already performed risk-based evaluations of nanomaterials grounded on the comparison of exposure concentrations with no-effect levels (as required for chemical risk assessment), examining generic nanomaterials such as "nano-TiO₂" but not specific forms or modifications. Even though these data sets on hazard and exposure are incomplete, they already provide the basis to illustrate the current state of knowledge and uncertainties. Therefore industry and applied researchers can calculate the probability that an adverse effect might occur and begin to balance the benefits and potential risks of an innovation. Based on the increasing numbers of nanotoxicology publications and funding programs, this Account reviews the decision support approaches that already exist to safely implement engineered nanomaterials during an early phase of innovation.

  17. Portfolio Management Decision Support Tools Analysis Relating to Management Value Metrics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-03-01

    operating environment. The intangible asset , management, which is required to ensure these important activities are executed at the appropriate time and... intangible asset . An important concept that is stressed in this literature is the assumption that there is a direct relationship between knowledge and...an intangible asset such as knowledge and utilizes this asset in decision making to increase the value of an organization. The next step is to lay

  18. A Clinical Decision Support Tool To Predict Survival in Cancer Patients beyond 120 Days after Palliative Chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Ng, Terence

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Palliative chemotherapy is often administered to terminally ill cancer patients to relieve symptoms. Yet, unnecessary use of chemotherapy can worsen patients' quality of life due to treatment-related toxicities. Thus, accurate prediction of survival in terminally ill patients can help clinicians decide on the most appropriate palliative care for these patients. However, studies have shown that clinicians often make imprecise predictions of survival in cancer patients. Hence, the purpose of this study was to create a clinical decision support tool to predict survival in cancer patients beyond 120 days after palliative chemotherapy. Materials and Methods Data were obtained from a retrospective study of 400 randomly selected terminally ill cancer patients in the National Cancer Centre Singapore (NCCS) from 2008 to 2009. After removing patients with missing data, there were 325 patients remaining for model development. Three classification algorithms, naive Bayes (NB), neural network (NN), and support vector machine (SVM) were used to create the models. A final model with the best prediction performance was then selected to develop the tool. Results The NN model had the best prediction performance. The accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, and area under the curve (AUC) of this model were 78%, 82%, 74%, and 0.857, respectively. Five patient attributes (albumin level, alanine transaminase level (ATL), absolute neutrophil count, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) status, and number of metastatic sites) were included in the model. Conclusions A decision support tool to predict survival in cancer patients beyond 120 days after palliative chemotherapy was created. With further validation, this tool coupled with the professional judgment of clinicians can help improve patient care. PMID:22690950

  19. 2D Hydrodynamic Based Logic Modeling Tool for River Restoration Decision Analysis: A Quantitative Approach to Project Prioritization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandrowski, D.; Lai, Y.; Bradley, N.; Gaeuman, D. A.; Murauskas, J.; Som, N. A.; Martin, A.; Goodman, D.; Alvarez, J.

    2014-12-01

    In the field of river restoration sciences there is a growing need for analytical modeling tools and quantitative processes to help identify and prioritize project sites. 2D hydraulic models have become more common in recent years and with the availability of robust data sets and computing technology, it is now possible to evaluate large river systems at the reach scale. The Trinity River Restoration Program is now analyzing a 40 mile segment of the Trinity River to determine priority and implementation sequencing for its Phase II rehabilitation projects. A comprehensive approach and quantitative tool has recently been developed to analyze this complex river system referred to as: 2D-Hydrodynamic Based Logic Modeling (2D-HBLM). This tool utilizes various hydraulic output parameters combined with biological, ecological, and physical metrics at user-defined spatial scales. These metrics and their associated algorithms are the underpinnings of the 2D-HBLM habitat module used to evaluate geomorphic characteristics, riverine processes, and habitat complexity. The habitat metrics are further integrated into a comprehensive Logic Model framework to perform statistical analyses to assess project prioritization. The Logic Model will analyze various potential project sites by evaluating connectivity using principal component methods. The 2D-HBLM tool will help inform management and decision makers by using a quantitative process to optimize desired response variables with balancing important limiting factors in determining the highest priority locations within the river corridor to implement restoration projects. Effective river restoration prioritization starts with well-crafted goals that identify the biological objectives, address underlying causes of habitat change, and recognizes that social, economic, and land use limiting factors may constrain restoration options (Bechie et. al. 2008). Applying natural resources management actions, like restoration prioritization, is

  20. A decision support tool to compare waterborne and foodborne infection and/or illness risks associated with climate change.

    PubMed

    Schijven, Jack; Bouwknegt, Martijn; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; Rutjes, Saskia; Sudre, Bertrand; Suk, Jonathan E; Semenza, Jan C

    2013-12-01

    Climate change may impact waterborne and foodborne infectious disease, but to what extent is uncertain. Estimating climate-change-associated relative infection risks from exposure to viruses, bacteria, or parasites in water or food is critical for guiding adaptation measures. We present a computational tool for strategic decision making that describes the behavior of pathogens using location-specific input data under current and projected climate conditions. Pathogen-pathway combinations are available for exposure to norovirus, Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, and noncholera Vibrio species via drinking water, bathing water, oysters, or chicken fillets. Infection risk outcomes generated by the tool under current climate conditions correspond with those published in the literature. The tool demonstrates that increasing temperatures lead to increasing risks for infection with Campylobacter from consuming raw/undercooked chicken fillet and for Vibrio from water exposure. Increasing frequencies of drought generally lead to an elevated infection risk of exposure to persistent pathogens such as norovirus and Cryptosporidium, but decreasing risk of exposure to rapidly inactivating pathogens, like Campylobacter. The opposite is the case with increasing annual precipitation; an upsurge of heavy rainfall events leads to more peaks in infection risks in all cases. The interdisciplinary tool presented here can be used to guide climate change adaptation strategies focused on infectious diseases.

  1. Development of a Geographic Information System-Based Decision Support Tool for Evaluating Windfarm Sitings in Great Lakes Aquatic Habitats

    SciTech Connect

    Wehrly, Kevin E.; Rutherford, Edward S.; Wang, Lizhu; Breck, Jason; Mason, Lacey; Nelson, Scott

    2011-07-31

    As an outcome of our research project, we developed software and data for the Lakebed Alteration Decision Support Tool (LADST), a web-based decision support program to assist resource managers in making siting decisions for offshore wind farms (as well as other lakebed-altering projects) in the United States' waters of the Great Lakes. Users of the LADST can create their own offshore wind farm suitability maps, based upon suitability criteria of their own choosing by visiting a public web site. The LADST can be used to represent the different priorities or values of different Great Lakes stakeholders for wind farm siting, as well as the different suitability requirements of wind farms (or different types of development projects) in a single suitability analysis system. The LADST makes this type of customized suitability analysis easily accessible to users who have no specialized software or experience with geographic information systems (GIS). It also may increase the transparency of the siting and permitting process for offshore wind farms, as it makes the suitability analysis equally accessible to resource managers, wind farm developers, and concerned citizens.

  2. The Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP): a national scale natural resources and conservation needs assessment and decision support tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, M.-V. V.; Norfleet, M. L.; Atwood, J. D.; Behrman, K. D.; Kiniry, J. R.; Arnold, J. G.; White, M. J.; Williams, J.

    2015-07-01

    The Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) was initiated to quantify the impacts of agricultural conservation practices at the watershed, regional, and national scales across the United States. Representative cropland acres in all major U.S. watersheds were surveyed in 2003-2006 as part of the seminal CEAP Cropland National Assessment. Two process-based models, the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender(APEX) and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), were applied to the survey data to provide a quantitative assessment of current conservation practice impacts, establish a benchmark against which future conservation trends and efforts could be measured, and identify outstanding conservation concerns. The flexibility of these models and the unprecedented amount of data on current conservation practices across the country enabled Cropland CEAP to meet its Congressional mandate of quantifying the value of current conservation practices. It also enabled scientifically grounded exploration of a variety of conservation scenarios, empowering CEAP to not only inform on past successes and additional needs, but to also provide a decision support tool to help guide future policy development and conservation practice decision making. The CEAP effort will repeat the national survey in 2015-2016, enabling CEAP to provide analyses of emergent conservation trends, outstanding needs, and potential costs and benefits of pursuing various treatment scenarios for all agricultural watersheds across the United States.

  3. Informing vaccine decision-making: A strategic multi-attribute ranking tool for vaccines-SMART Vaccines 2.0.

    PubMed

    Knobler, Stacey; Bok, Karin; Gellin, Bruce

    2017-01-20

    SMART Vaccines 2.0 software is being developed to support decision-making among multiple stakeholders in the process of prioritizing investments to optimize the outcomes of vaccine development and deployment. Vaccines and associated vaccination programs are one of the most successful and effective public health interventions to prevent communicable diseases and vaccine researchers are continually working towards expanding targets for communicable and non-communicable diseases through preventive and therapeutic modes. A growing body of evidence on emerging vaccine technologies, trends in disease burden, costs associated with vaccine development and deployment, and benefits derived from disease prevention through vaccination and a range of other factors can inform decision-making and investment in new and improved vaccines and targeted utilization of already existing vaccines. Recognizing that an array of inputs influences these decisions, the strategic multi-attribute ranking method for vaccines (SMART Vaccines 2.0) is in development as a web-based tool-modified from a U.S. Institute of Medicine Committee effort (IOM, 2015)-to highlight data needs and create transparency to facilitate dialogue and information-sharing among decision-makers and to optimize the investment of resources leading to improved health outcomes. Current development efforts of the SMART Vaccines 2.0 framework seek to generate a weighted recommendation on vaccine development or vaccination priorities based on population, disease, economic, and vaccine-specific data in combination with individual preference and weights of user-selected attributes incorporating valuations of health, economics, demographics, public concern, scientific and business, programmatic, and political considerations. Further development of the design and utility of the tool is being carried out by the National Vaccine Program Office of the Department of Health and Human Services and the Fogarty International Center of the

  4. EnviroAtlas: A Tool for Accessing, Viewing, & Analyzing Diverse Information for Better Decisions

    EPA Science Inventory

    EnviroAtlas provides interactive tools and resources for exploring the benefits people receive from nature or :ecosystem goods and services.: Ecosystem goods and services are critically important to human health and well-being, but they are often overlooked due to lack of informa...

  5. Decision Support Tool for Deep Energy Efficiency Retrofits in DoD Installations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-01-01

    6.1.1 ASHRAE 140 Simulation Tool Inter-Model Comparison........................ 19 6.1.1.1 Validation and Improvements of Algorithms for Envelope... ASHRAE Standard 140. Conduction time series (CTS) represents the starting point...handling unit AMI Advanced Meter Infrastructure ASHRAE American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers BIG Building

  6. Transportation Big Data: Unbiased Analysis and Tools to Inform Sustainable Transportation Decisions

    SciTech Connect

    2016-06-01

    Today, transportation operation and energy systems data are generated at an unprecedented scale. The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is the go-to source for expertise in providing data and analysis to inform industry and government transportation decision making. The lab's teams of data experts and engineers are mining and analyzing large sets of complex data -- or 'big data' -- to develop solutions that support the research, development, and deployment of market-ready technologies that reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

  7. Emergence of viral diseases: mathematical modeling as a tool for infection control, policy and decision making.

    PubMed

    Louz, Derrick; Bergmans, Hans E; Loos, Birgit P; Hoeben, Rob C

    2010-08-01

    Mathematical modeling can be used for the development and implementation of infection control policy to combat outbreaks and epidemics of communicable viral diseases. Here an outline is provided of basic concepts and approaches used in mathematical modeling and parameterization of disease transmission. The use of mathematical models is illustrated, using the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic, the 2003 global severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic, and human influenza pandemics, as examples. This provides insights in the strengths, limitations, and weaknesses of the various models, and demonstrates their potential for supporting policy and decision making.

  8. Decision technology.

    PubMed

    Edwards, W; Fasolo, B

    2001-01-01

    This review is about decision technology-the rules and tools that help us make wiser decisions. First, we review the three rules that are at the heart of most traditional decision technology-multi-attribute utility, Bayes' theorem, and subjective expected utility maximization. Since the inception of decision research, these rules have prescribed how we should infer values and probabilities and how we should combine them to make better decisions. We suggest how to make best use of all three rules in a comprehensive 19-step model. The remainder of the review explores recently developed tools of decision technology. It examines the characteristics and problems of decision-facilitating sites on the World Wide Web. Such sites now provide anyone who can use a personal computer with access to very sophisticated decision-aiding tools structured mainly to facilitate consumer decision making. It seems likely that the Web will be the mode by means of which decision tools will be distributed to lay users. But methods for doing such apparently simple things as winnowing 3000 options down to a more reasonable number, like 10, contain traps for unwary decision technologists. The review briefly examines Bayes nets and influence diagrams-judgment and decision-making tools that are available as computer programs. It very briefly summarizes the state of the art of eliciting probabilities from experts. It concludes that decision tools will be as important in the 21st century as spreadsheets were in the 20th.

  9. Risk-based cleanup standards

    SciTech Connect

    Kennedy, W.E. Jr.

    1992-06-01

    The problems encountered during facility or land cleanup operations will provide challenges both to technology and regulatory agencies. Inevitably, the decisions of the federal agencies regulating cleanup activities have been controversial. The major dilemma facing government and industry is how to accomplish cleanup in a cost-effective manner while minimizing the risks to workers and the public.

  10. Experimental verification of an energy consumption signal tool for operational decision support in an office building

    SciTech Connect

    Pavlak, Gregory S.; Henze, Gregor P.; Hirsch, Adam I.; Florita, Anthony R.; Dodier, Robert H.

    2016-12-01

    This paper demonstrates an energy signal tool to assess the system-level and whole-building energy use of an office building in downtown Denver, Colorado. The energy signal tool uses a traffic light visualization to alert a building operator to energy use which is substantially different from expected. The tool selects which light to display for a given energy end-use by comparing measured energy use to expected energy use, accounting for uncertainty. A red light is only displayed when a fault is likely enough, and abnormal operation costly enough, that taking action will yield the lowest cost result. While the theoretical advances and tool development were reported previously, it has only been tested using a basic building model and has not, until now, been experimentally verified. Expected energy use for the field demonstration is provided by a compact reduced-order representation of the Alliance Center, generated from a detailed DOE-2.2 energy model. Actual building energy consumption data is taken from the summer of 2014 for the office building immediately after a significant renovation project. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a first look at the building following its major renovation compared to the design intent. The tool indicated strong under-consumption in lighting and plug loads and strong over-consumption in HVAC energy consumption, which prompted several focused actions for follow-up investigation. In addition, this paper illustrates the application of Bayesian inference to the estimation of posterior parameter probability distributions to measured data. Practical discussion of the application is provided, along with additional findings from further investigating the significant difference between expected and actual energy consumption.

  11. Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knight, P. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Morrissey, K.; Plater, A. J.

    2015-07-01

    A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high-level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision support tool (DST) that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms, and high river flows. This DST has been developed to support operational and strategic decision making by enabling the user to explore the flood hazard from extreme events, changes in the extent of the flood-prone areas with sea-level rise, and thresholds of sea-level rise where current policy and resource options are no longer viable. The DST is built in an open-source GIS that uses freely available geospatial data. Flood risk assessments from a combination of LISFLOOD-FP and SWAB (Shallow Water And Boussinesq) models are embedded within the tool; the user interface enables interrogation of different combinations of coastal and river events under rising-sea-level scenarios. Users can readily vary the input parameters (sea level, storms, wave height and river flow) relative to the present-day topography and infrastructure to identify combinations where significant regime shifts or "tipping points" occur. Two case studies demonstrate the attributes of the DST with respect to the wider coastal community and the UK energy sector. Examples report on the assets at risk and illustrate the extent of flooding in relation to infrastructure access. This informs an economic assessment of potential losses due to climate change and thus provides local authorities and energy operators with essential information on the feasibility of investment for building resilience into vulnerable components of their area of responsibility.

  12. Structured decision making as a conservation tool for recovery planning of two endangered salamanders

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Donnell, Katherine; Messerman, Arianne F; Barichivich, William J.; Semlitsch, Raymond D.; Gorman, Thomas A.; Mitchell, Harold G; Allan, Nathan; Fenolio, Dante B.; Green, Adam; Johnson, Fred A.; Keever, Allison; Mandica, Mark; Martin, Julien; Mott, Jana; Peacock, Terry; Reinman, Joseph; Romanach, Stephanie; Titus, Greg; McGowan, Conor; Walls, Susan

    2017-01-01

    At least one-third of all amphibian species face the threat of extinction, and current amphibian extinction rates are four orders of magnitude greater than background rates. Preventing extirpation often requires both ex situ (i.e., conservation breeding programs) and in situ strategies (i.e., protecting natural habitats). Flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi and A. cingulatum) are protected under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The two species have decreased from 476 historical locations to 63 recently extant locations (86.8% loss). We suggest that recovery efforts are needed to increase populations and prevent extinction, but uncertainty regarding optimal actions in both ex situ and in situ realms hinders recovery planning. We used structured decision making (SDM) to address key uncertainties regarding both captive breeding and habitat restoration, and we developed short-, medium-, and long-term goals to achieve recovery objectives. By promoting a transparent, logical approach, SDM has proven vital to recovery plan development for flatwoods salamanders. The SDM approach has clear advantages over other previous approaches to recovery efforts, and we suggest that it should be considered for other complex decisions regarding endangered species.

  13. Development of decision tools to assess migration from plastic materials in contact with food.

    PubMed

    Gillet, G; Vitrac, O; Tissier, D; Saillard, P; Desobry, S

    2009-12-01

    Testing the specific migration limits of all substances intentionally added to polymer material according to European Union (EU) regulation is a time-consuming and expensive task. Although mathematical modeling offers an interesting alternative, it can significantly overestimate the migration in situations which are strongly conservative due to significant uncertainty in transport properties. In addition, its application is of little use for end-users or enforcement laboratories, which do not have access to the formulation. This paper revises the paradigm of migration modeling by combining modeling with deformulation experiments and iterative modeling in the framework of decision theory. The complete approach is illustrated for polyolefins in contact with 50% ethanol for eight typical migrants, including hindered phenolic antioxidants and low molecular weight surrogates. Results from a French ACTIA project on the identification of formulation fingerprints and on the prediction of partition coefficients with alcoholic and aqueous stimulants is described. When the true migration was close but still lower than the limit of concern, the proposed compact decision tree, including up to four sources of uncertainty, showed that the chance of demonstrating compliance was about 3 : 4 in the presence of one source of uncertainty, whereas it fell below 2 : 4 and 1 : 4 with two and three sources of uncertainty, respectively. The recommendations for further food packaging safety surveys and future developments are discussed.

  14. A web-based neurological pain classifier tool utilizing Bayesian decision theory for pain classification in spinal cord injury patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verma, Sneha K.; Chun, Sophia; Liu, Brent J.

    2014-03-01

    Pain is a common complication after spinal cord injury with prevalence estimates ranging 77% to 81%, which highly affects a patient's lifestyle and well-being. In the current clinical setting paper-based forms are used to classify pain correctly, however, the accuracy of diagnoses and optimal management of pain largely depend on the expert reviewer, which in many cases is not possible because of very few experts in this field. The need for a clinical decision support system that can be used by expert and non-expert clinicians has been cited in literature, but such a system has not been developed. We have designed and developed a stand-alone tool for correctly classifying pain type in spinal cord injury (SCI) patients, using Bayesian decision theory. Various machine learning simulation methods are used to verify the algorithm using a pilot study data set, which consists of 48 patients data set. The data set consists of the paper-based forms, collected at Long Beach VA clinic with pain classification done by expert in the field. Using the WEKA as the machine learning tool we have tested on the 48 patient dataset that the hypothesis that attributes collected on the forms and the pain location marked by patients have very significant impact on the pain type classification. This tool will be integrated with an imaging informatics system to support a clinical study that will test the effectiveness of using Proton Beam radiotherapy for treating spinal cord injury (SCI) related neuropathic pain as an alternative to invasive surgical lesioning.

  15. The Design of an Intelligent Decision Support Tool for Submarine Commanders

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-06-01

    how mobile technology has developed in other fields. • Chapter 3, Design of the Mobile Situational Awareness Tool, explains the method used for...email while still being completely portable. The availability of cellular towers and wireless signals has allowed mobile technology to grow at...mobile commerce has shown that among the biggest constraints in mobile technology are slow CPUs, limited processing power, small screen size, low

  16. Acquisition Program Lead Systems Integration/Lead Capabilities Integration Decision Support Methodology and Tool

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-05-01

    provide PMs with a simulation tool to assist Program Offices in evaluating the relative merits and risks of utilizing NAWCAD and commercial OEMs for...solution space and foresight between Original Equipment Manufacturers ( OEMs ) and Government entities performing the Lead System Integrator (LSI...evaluating the relative risks of utilizing NAWCAD and commercial OEMs for various LSI roles and responsibilities • Interview Eleven NAVAIR Program

  17. Prioritizing Zoonoses: A Proposed One Health Tool for Collaborative Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Emerging and re-emerging zoonotic diseases pose a threat to both humans and animals. This common threat is an opportunity for human and animal health agencies to coordinate across sectors in a more effective response to zoonotic diseases. An initial step in the collaborative process is identification of diseases or pathogens of greatest concern so that limited financial and personnel resources can be effectively focused. Unfortunately, in many countries where zoonotic diseases pose the greatest risk, surveillance information that clearly defines burden of disease is not available. We have created a semi-quantitative tool for prioritizing zoonoses in the absence of comprehensive prevalence data. Our tool requires that human and animal health agency representatives jointly identify criteria (e.g., pandemic potential, human morbidity or mortality, economic impact) that are locally appropriate for defining a disease as being of concern. The outcome of this process is a ranked disease list that both human and animal sectors can support for collaborative surveillance, laboratory capacity enhancement, or other identified activities. The tool is described in a five-step process and its utility is demonstrated for the reader. PMID:25302612

  18. An antibiotic decision-making tool for patients with pneumonia admitted to a medical intensive care unit.

    PubMed

    Huang, Sheng-Feng; Chang, Jung-San; Sheu, Chau-Chyun; Liu, Yu-Ting; Lin, Ying-Chi

    2016-09-01

    Pneumonia is a leading cause of death in medical intensive care units (MICUs). Delayed or inappropriate antibiotic therapy largely increases morbidity and mortality. Multidrug-resistant (MDR) micro-organisms are major reasons for inappropriate antibiotic use. Currently there is no good antibiotic decision-making tool designed for critically ill patients. The objective of this study was to develop a convenient MDR prediction scoring system for patients admitted to MICUs with pneumonia. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using databases and chart reviews of pneumonia patients admitted to a 30-bed MICU from 2012 to 2013. Forward logistic regression was applied to identify independent MDR risk factors for prediction tool development. A total of 283 pneumonia episodes from 263 patients with positive cultures from blood or respiratory secretions were recruited, of which 154 (54.4%) were MDR episodes. Long-term ventilation (OR = 11.09; P = 0.026), residence in a long-term care facility (OR = 2.50; P = 0.005), MDR infection/colonisation during the preceding 90 days (OR = 2.08; P = 0.041), current hospitalisation ≥2 days (OR = 1.98; P = 0.019) and stroke (OR = 1.81; P = 0.035) were identified as independent predictors for MDR pneumonia. The area under the ROC curve of this prediction tool was much higher than that of ATS/IDSA classification (0.69 vs. 0.54; P <0.001). The prediction accuracy of this tool with risk score ≥1 for MDR infections was 63.7%. This simple five-item, one-step scoring tool for critically ill patients admitted to the MICU could help physicians provide timely appropriate empirical antibiotics.

  19. Development of a case tool to support decision based software development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wild, Christian J.

    1993-01-01

    A summary of the accomplishments of the research over the past year are presented. Achievements include: made demonstrations with DHC, a prototype supporting decision based software development (DBSD) methodology, for Paramax personnel at ODU; met with Paramax personnel to discuss DBSD issues, the process of integrating DBSD and Refinery and the porting process model; completed and submitted a paper describing DBSD paradigm to IFIP '92; completed and presented a paper describing the approach for software reuse at the Software Reuse Workshop in April 1993; continued to extend DHC with a project agenda, facility necessary for a better project management; completed a primary draft of the re-engineering process model for porting; created a logging form to trace all the activities involved in the process of solving the reengineering problem, and developed a primary chart with the problems involved by the reengineering process.

  20. Transportation Energy Futures: Key Opportunities and Tools for Decision Makers (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2012-12-01

    The Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project examines underexplored greenhouse gas-abatement and oil-savings opportunities by consolidating transportation energy knowledge, conducting advanced analysis, and exploring additional opportunities for sound strategic action. Led by NREL, in collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory, the project's primary goal is to provide analysis to accompany DOE-EERE's long-term transportation energy planning by addressing high-priority questions, informing domestic decisions about transportation energy strategies, priorities, and investments. Research and analysis were conducted with an eye toward short-term actions that support long-term energy goals The project looks beyond technology to examine each key question in the context of the marketplace, consumer behavior, industry capabilities, and infrastructure. This updated fact sheet includes a new section on initial project findings.

  1. Integrated Services Management System (ISMS): A management and decision making tool

    SciTech Connect

    Barber, D.S.; Brockman, D.L.; Buxton, L.D.

    1995-10-01

    This document provides information concerning the Integrated Services Management System (ISMS) that was developed for the Laboratories Services Division during the period February 1994 through May 1995. ISMS was developed as a formal method for centralized management of programs within the Division. With minor modifications, this system can be adapted for management of all overhead functions at SNL or for sector level program management. Included in this document are the reasons for the creation of this system as well as the resulting benefits. The ISMS consists of six interlinked processes; Issues Management, Task/Activity Planning, Work Decision, Commitment Management, Process/Project Management, and Performance Assessment. Those processes are described in detail within this document. Additionally, lessons learned and suggestions for future improvements are indicated.

  2. Mass Spectrometry Imaging as a Tool for Surgical Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Calligaris, David; Norton, Isaiah; Feldman, Daniel R.; Ide, Jennifer L.; Dunn, Ian F.; Eberlin, Livia S.; Cooks, R. Graham; Jolesz, Ferenc A.; Golby, Alexandra J.; Santagata, Sandro; Agar, Nathalie Y.

    2014-01-01

    Despite significant advances in image-guided therapy, surgeons are still too often left with uncertainty when deciding to remove tissue. This binary decision between removing and leaving tissue during surgery implies that the surgeon should be able to distinguish tumor from healthy tissue. In neurosurgery, current image-guidance approaches such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) combined with neuro-navigation offer a map as to where the tumor should be, but the only definitive method to characterize the tissue at stake is histopathology. While extremely valuable information is derived from this gold standard approach, it is limited to very few samples during surgery and is not practically used for the delineation of tumor margins. The development and implementation of faster, comprehensive and complementary approaches for tissue characterization are required to support surgical decision-making – an incremental and iterative process with tumor removed in multiple and often minute biopsies. The development of atmospheric pressure ionization sources makes it possible to analyze tissue specimens with little to no sample preparation. Here, we highlight the value of desorption electrospray ionization (DESI) as one of many available approaches for the analysis of surgical tissue. Twelve surgical samples resected from a patient during surgery were analyzed and diagnosed as glioblastoma (GBM) tumor or necrotic tissue by standard histopathology, and mass spectrometry results were further correlated to histopathology for critical validation of the approach. The use of a robust statistical approach reiterated results from the qualitative detection of potential biomarkers of these tissue types. The correlation of the MS and histopathology results to magnetic resonance images brings significant insight into tumor presentation that could not only serve to guide tumor resection, but that is worthy of more detailed studies on our understanding of tumor presentation on MRI. PMID

  3. Building Gateway Tools for Informed Decision Making: The Drought Risk Atlas and U.S. Drought Monitor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svoboda, M.; Fuchs, B.; Poulsen, C.; Nothwehr, J.; Owen, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) (http://drought.unl.edu) has been working with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) (http://drought.gov;) and other partners with a goal of developing tools to enhance drought risk management activities in the U.S. and around the world. The NDMC is a national center founded in 1995 and located at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The NDMC conducts basic and applied research, provides a variety of services and produces decision support applications. In addition, the NDMC is involved heavily in education, outreach and planning activities and maintains a number of operational drought-related tools and products including the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), Drought Impact Reporter (DIR), Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) and the Drought Risk Atlas (DRA). The NDMC's recently launched Drought Risk Atlas (DRA) (http://droughtatlas.unl.edu) and the continually evolving U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu;) will be the focus of this presentation. The DRA was launched in 2014 in order to help better answer the common questions of "How does this drought compare to the Dust Bowl years or some other regional drought of record?", or "How often do we see a drought as severe as this?", and "Are we seeing trends in drought frequency?". Access to new digital data sources, geospatial tools and analyses, and dissemination through a web-based interface has allowed us to triple the original National Drought Atlas station sample size and roughly double the period of record in standing up the new DRA. Building off of feedback from the user community, the SPI, SPEI, PDSI, self-calibrated PDSI, Deciles and other climatology (to also include hydrology) products are included. It is anticipated that this tool will heighten awareness and enhance decision support activities with regards to drought risk for policy makers, resource managers, producers, planners, media and the public. Examples of the DRA

  4. A group decision-making tool for the application of membrane technologies in different water reuse scenarios.

    PubMed

    Sadr, S M K; Saroj, D P; Kouchaki, S; Ilemobade, A A; Ouki, S K

    2015-06-01

    A global challenge of increasing concern is diminishing fresh water resources. A growing practice in many communities to supplement diminishing fresh water availability has been the reuse of water. Novel methods of treating polluted waters, such as membrane assisted technologies, have recently been developed and successfully implemented in many places. Given the diversity of membrane assisted technologies available, the current challenge is how to select a reliable alternative among numerous technologies for appropriate water reuse. In this research, a fuzzy logic based multi-criteria, group decision making tool has been developed. This tool has been employed in the selection of appropriate membrane treatment technologies for several non-potable and potable reuse scenarios. Robust criteria, covering technical, environmental, economic and socio-cultural aspects, were selected, while 10 different membrane assisted technologies were assessed in the tool. The results show this approach capable of facilitating systematic and rigorous analysis in the comparison and selection of membrane assisted technologies for advanced wastewater treatment and reuse.

  5. Development of a decision-support tool for identifying the most suitable approach to achieve nitrate source determination.

    PubMed

    Fenech, C; Nolan, K; Rock, L; Morrissey, A

    2014-11-01

    Numerous approaches have been suggested for differentiating point and diffuse sources of nitrate contamination, including nitrate stable isotopes, microbiological analyses, genetic markers and chemical markers. Each approach has its own strengths and limitations. As a result, the most appropriate approach to use largely depends upon the scenario and the context of the study. However, available data on nitrate source determination is highly fragmented and approach dependent, with very little if any interface between the different techniques. This makes it difficult for stakeholders to identify the most suitable approach to adopt in a specific scenario. Therefore, this paper examines the development and application of a decision-support tool to support environmental forensics studies for nitrate contamination. In particular, this tool can support policy makers, regulators and operators within the field in understanding the environmental hazards and processes resulting from nitrate contamination, and to implement appropriate actions for limiting the impacts that may arise from such contamination. The tool was developed using the IDEF0 modeling system, and evaluated by interviewing key stakeholders who suggested a number of important implications for practice.

  6. Prostate Cancer on the Web-Expedient Tool for Patients' Decision-Making?

    PubMed

    Borgmann, Hendrik; Wölm, Jan-Henning; Vallo, Stefan; Mager, Rene; Huber, Johannes; Breyer, Johannes; Salem, Johannes; Loeb, Stacy; Haferkamp, Axel; Tsaur, Igor

    2017-03-01

    Many patients diagnosed with cancer search for health information on the Web. We aimed to assess the quality and reliability of online health information on prostate cancer. Google, Yahoo, and Bing were searched for the term "prostate cancer." After selecting the most frequented websites, quality was measured by DISCERN score, JAMA benchmark criteria, and presence of HONcode certification. Popularity was assessed by Alexa tool, while accessibility, usability, and reliability were investigated by LIDA tool. Readability was analyzed by Flesch-Kincaid Reading Grade Level and Automated Readability Index. All 13 selected websites were rated as being of high quality according to the DISCERN instrument (76.5 ± 2.6 out of 80 points). JAMA benchmark criteria were fulfilled by 87 % of websites, whereas only 37 % were certified by the HONcode. Median Alexa Traffic Rank was 2718 ranging from 7 to 679,038. Websites received 2.3 ± 0.5 daily pageviews per visitor and users spent an average of 2 min 58 s ± 39 sec on the website. Accessibility (92 ± 5 %) and usability (92 ± 3 %) scores were high and reliability (88 ± 8 %) moderate according to the LIDA tool. Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level was 7.9 ± 2.2, and Automated Readability Index was 7.5 ± 2.4, rating the websites as fairly difficult to read. In conclusion, quality, accessibility, and usability of websites on prostate cancer provided a high rating in the current analysis. These findings are encouraging in view of the growing frequency of patients' access of health information online.

  7. NOAA Coral Reef Watch: Decision Support Tools for Coral Reef Managers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rauenzahn, J.; Eakin, C.; Skirving, W. J.; Burgess, T.; Christensen, T.; Heron, S. F.; Li, J.; Liu, G.; Morgan, J.; Nim, C.; Parker, B. A.; Strong, A. E.

    2010-12-01

    A multitude of natural and anthropogenic stressors exert substantial influence on coral reef ecosystems and contribute to bleaching events, slower coral growth, infectious disease outbreaks, and mortality. Satellite-based observations can monitor, at a global scale, environmental conditions that influence both short-term and long-term coral reef ecosystem health. From research to operations, NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) incorporates paleoclimatic, in situ, and satellite-based biogeophysical data to provide near-real-time and forecast information and tools to help managers, researchers, and other stakeholders interpret coral health and stress. CRW has developed an operational, near-real-time product suite that includes sea surface temperature (SST), SST time series data, SST anomaly charts, coral bleaching HotSpots, and Degree Heating Weeks (DHW). Bi-weekly global SST analyses are based on operational nighttime-only SST at 50-km resolution. CRW is working to develop high-resolution products to better address thermal stress on finer scales and is applying climate models to develop seasonal outlooks of coral bleaching. Automated Satellite Bleaching Alerts (SBAs), available at Virtual Stations worldwide, provide the only global early-warning system to notify managers of changing reef environmental conditions. Currently, CRW is collaborating with numerous domestic and international partners to develop new tools to address ocean acidification, infectious diseases of corals, combining light and temperature to detect coral photosystem stress, and other parameters.

  8. Blended near-optimal tools for flexible water resources decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenberg, David

    2015-04-01

    State-of-the-art systems analysis techniques focus on efficiently finding optimal solutions. Yet an optimal solution is optimal only for the static modelled issues and managers often seek near-optimal alternatives that address un-modelled or changing objectives, preferences, limits, uncertainties, and other issues. Early on, Modelling to Generate Alternatives (MGA) formalized near-optimal as performance within a tolerable deviation from the optimal objective function value and identified a few maximally-different alternatives that addressed select un-modelled issues. This paper presents new stratified, Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling and parallel coordinate plotting tools that generate and communicate the structure and full extent of the near-optimal region to an optimization problem. Plot controls allow users to interactively explore region features of most interest. Controls also streamline the process to elicit un-modelled issues and update the model formulation in response to elicited issues. Use for a single-objective water quality management problem at Echo Reservoir, Utah identifies numerous and flexible practices to reduce the phosphorus load to the reservoir and maintain close-to-optimal performance. Compared to MGA, the new blended tools generate more numerous alternatives faster, more fully show the near-optimal region, help elicit a larger set of un-modelled issues, and offer managers greater flexibility to cope in a changing world.

  9. Near Earth Object impact simulation tool for supporting the NEO mitigation decision making process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bailey, Nick J.; Swinerd, Graham G.; Morley, Andrew D.; Lewis, Hugh G.

    2007-05-01

    This paper describes the development of a computer simulation tool, NEOSim, capable of modelling small NEO impacts and their effect on the global population. The development of the tool draws upon existing models for the atmospheric passage and impact processes. Simulation of the land and ocean impact effects combined with a population density model leads to a casualty estimation at both a regional and global level. Casualty predictions are based upon the intensity of each impact effect on the local population density with consideration given to the population inside or outside local infrastructure. Two case studies are presented. The first evaluates the potential threat to the UK from localised NEO impacts, and highlights coastal locations as being at greater risk. Locations around Cornwall demonstrate a 69% increase in casualties above the local average. The second case study concerns the potential impact of asteroid 99942 Apophis in 2036. Propagation of the possible orbits along the line of variance leads to an extensive path of risk on the Earth. Deflection of the asteroid, by a variety of means, will move the projected impact site along this path. Results generated by NEOSim for the path indicate that South American countries such as Colombia and Venezuela are at a greater risk with estimated casualty figures in excess of 10 million. Applications of this software to the NEO threat are discussed along with the next stage of NEO impact simulation.

  10. A method to assess how interactive water simulation tools influence transdisciplinary decision-making processes in water management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leskens, Johannes

    2015-04-01

    In modern water management, often transdisciplinary work sessions are organized in which various stakeholders participate to jointly define problems, choose measures and divide responsibilities to take actions. Involved stakeholders are for example policy analysts or decision-makers from municipalities, water boards or provinces, representatives of pressure groups and researchers from knowledge institutes. Parallel to this increasing attention for transdisciplinary work sessions, we see a growing availability of interactive IT-tools that can be applied during these sessions. For example, dynamic flood risk maps have become recently available that allow users during a work sessions to instantaneously assess the impact of storm surges or dam breaches, displayed on digital maps. Other examples are serious games, realistic visualizations and participatory simulations. However, the question is if and how these interactive IT-tools contribute to better decision-making. To assess this, we take the process of knowledge construction during a work session as a measure for the quality of decision-making. Knowledge construction can be defined as the process in which ideas, perspectives and opinions of different stakeholders, all having their own expertise and experience, are confronted with each other and new shared meanings towards water management issues are created. We present an assessment method to monitor the process of knowledge construction during work sessions in water management in which interactive IT tools are being used. The assessment method is based on a literature review, focusing on studies in which knowledge construction was monitored in other contexts that water management. To test the applicability of the assessment method, we applied it during a multi-stakeholder work session in Westland, located in the southwest of the Netherlands. The discussions during the work session were observed by camera. All statements, expressed by the various members of a

  11. Development and evaluation of a comprehensive clinical decision support taxonomy: comparison of front-end tools in commercial and internally developed electronic health record systems

    PubMed Central

    Sittig, Dean F; Ash, Joan S; Feblowitz, Joshua; Meltzer, Seth; McMullen, Carmit; Guappone, Ken; Carpenter, Jim; Richardson, Joshua; Simonaitis, Linas; Evans, R Scott; Nichol, W Paul; Middleton, Blackford

    2011-01-01

    Background Clinical decision support (CDS) is a valuable tool for improving healthcare quality and lowering costs. However, there is no comprehensive taxonomy of types of CDS and there has been limited research on the availability of various CDS tools across current electronic health record (EHR) systems. Objective To develop and validate a taxonomy of front-end CDS tools and to assess support for these tools in major commercial and internally developed EHRs. Study design and methods We used a modified Delphi approach with a panel of 11 decision support experts to develop a taxonomy of 53 front-end CDS tools. Based on this taxonomy, a survey on CDS tools was sent to a purposive sample of commercial EHR vendors (n=9) and leading healthcare institutions with internally developed state-of-the-art EHRs (n=4). Results Responses were received from all healthcare institutions and 7 of 9 EHR vendors (response rate: 85%). All 53 types of CDS tools identified in the taxonomy were found in at least one surveyed EHR system, but only 8 functions were present in all EHRs. Medication dosing support and order facilitators were the most commonly available classes of decision support, while expert systems (eg, diagnostic decision support, ventilator management suggestions) were the least common. Conclusion We developed and validated a comprehensive taxonomy of front-end CDS tools. A subsequent survey of commercial EHR vendors and leading healthcare institutions revealed a small core set of common CDS tools, but identified significant variability in the remainder of clinical decision support content. PMID:21415065

  12. Fact Sheets of CTAS and NASA Decision-Support Tools and Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Katharine

    2004-01-01

    Distributed Air/Ground (DAG) Traffic Management (TM) is an integrated operational concept in which flight deck crews, air traffic service providers and aeronautical operational control personnel use distributed decision-making to enable user preferences and increase system capacity, while meeting air traffic management (ATM) requirements. It is a possible operational mode under the Free Flight concept outlined by the RTCA Task Force 3. The goal of DAG-TM is to enhance user flexibility/efficiency and increase system capacity, without adversely affecting system safety or restricting user accessibility to the National Airspace System (NAS). DAG-TM will be accomplished with a human-centered operational paradigm enabled by procedural and technological innovations. These innovations include automation aids, information sharing and Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance (CNS) / ATM technologies. The DAG-TM concept is intended to eliminate static restrictions to the maximum extent possible. In this paradigm, users may plan and operate according to their preferences - as the rule rather than the exception - with deviations occumng eyond the year 2015. Out of a total of 15 concept elements, 4 have been selected for initial sutidies (see Key Elements in sidebar). DAG-TM research is being performed at Ames, Glenn, and Langley Research Centers.

  13. [Evidence-based public health decision-making tools which can also be used for prioritising disease].

    PubMed

    Cediel-Becerra, Natalia M; Krause, Gérard

    2013-01-01

    He use of research-based evidence has been promoted during recent years, due to the increasing development of evidence-based medicine,and it has been reported that transferring the concept of "evidence-based" from clinical to public health practice has not been as straight forward as expected.Much research-based evidence for supporting public health recommendations has come from studies whose evidence has been qualified as being low or very low quality in the medical hierarchy based on classic evidence and the grading of recommendations, assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE)approach. This paper was aimed at presenting two methods of rating evidence, as well as their limitations and applications as public health decision-making tools.

  14. Developing a Framework to Link Catchment Modelling tools to Decision Support Systems for Catchment Management and Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, Russell; Owen, Gareth

    2015-04-01

    Over the past few years a series of catchment monitoring studies in the UK have developed a wide range of tools to enable managers and planners to make informed decisions to target several key outcomes. These outcomes include the mitigation of diffuse pollution and the reduction of flood risk. Good progress has been but additional steps are still required to link together more detailed models that represent catchment processes with the decision support systems (often termed matrices; i.e. DSMs) which form the basis of these planning and management tools. Examples include: (i) the FARM tools developed by the PROACTIVE team at Newcastle University to assess different catchment management options for mitigating against flooding events, (ii) TOPMANAGE, a suite of algorithms that link with high resolution DEMs to enable surface flow pathways, having the potential to be mitigated by Natural Flood Management (NFM) features (in order to target diffuse pollution due to nutrients and sediments) to be identified. To date, these DSMs have not been underpinned by models that can be run in real-time to quantify the benefits in terms of measurable reductions in flood or nutrient pollution risks. Their use has therefore been mostly as qualitative assessment tools. This study aims to adapt an existing spreadsheet-based model, the CRAFT, in order for it to become fully coupled to a DSM approach. Previous catchment scale applications of the CRAFT have focussed on meso-scale studies where any management interventions at a local scale are unlikely to be detectable at the monitoring point (the catchment outlet). The model has however been reasonably successful in identifying potential flow and transport pathways that link the headwater subcatchments to the outlet. Furthermore, recent enhancements to the model enable features such as sedimentation ponds and lagoons that can trap and remove nutrients and sediments to be added, once data become available from different types of NFM

  15. The adverse outcome pathway concept: A basis for developing regulatory decision-making tools.

    PubMed

    Delrue, Nathalie; Sachana, Magdalini; Sakuratani, Yuki; Gourmelon, Anne; Leinala, Eeva; Diderich, Robert

    2016-10-01

    The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) concept is expected to guide risk assessors in their work to use all existing information on the effects of chemicals on humans and wildlife, and to target the generation of additional information to the regulatory objective. AOPs will therefore be used in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) chemical safety programme, as underlying scientific rationales for the development of alternative methods for hazard assessment, such as read-across, in vitro test methods or the development of integrated testing strategies that have the potential to replace animal tests. As a proof-of-concept, the OECD has developed an AOP for skin sensitisation, and as a follow-up has: a) implemented the AOP into the OECD QSAR Toolbox, so that information related to the Key Events (KEs) in the AOP can be used to group chemicals that are expected to act by the same mechanism and hence have the same skin sensitisation potential; b) developed alternative test methods for the KEs, so that ultimately chemicals can be tested for skin sensitisation without the use of animal tests. The development of integrated testing strategies based on the AOP is ongoing. Building on this proof-of-concept, the OECD has launched an AOP development programme with a first batch of AOPs published in 2016. A number of IT tools, which together form an AOP Knowledge Base, are at various stages of development, and support the construction of AOPs and their use in the development of integrated approaches for testing and assessment. Following the publication of the first batch of AOPs, OECD member countries will decide on priorities for their use in supporting the development of tools for regulatory use.

  16. “Best Case/Worst Case”: Qualitative evaluation of a novel communication tool for difficult in-the-moment surgical decisions

    PubMed Central

    Kruser, Jacqueline M.; Nabozny, Michael J.; Steffens, Nicole M.; Brasel, Karen J.; Campbell, Toby C.; Gaines, Martha E.; Schwarze, Margaret L.

    2016-01-01

    Background/Objectives Older adults commonly face difficult decisions regarding invasive medical treatments near the end of life, including surgical procedures. There is a need for interventions that help physicians, patients and caregivers deliberate about these difficult decisions and make informed choices that reflect patients’ values and goals. Design We designed a communication tool called “Best Case/Worst Case” (BC/WC) based on an established conceptual model of shared decision making. We evaluated the tool with focus groups of seniors (4 groups) and surgeons (2 groups) using modified questions from the Decision Aid Acceptability Scale and the Decisional Conflict Scale. Setting and Participants We recruited 37 adults over age 60 from senior centers and 17 surgeons from academic and private practices in Wisconsin to participate in the study. Measurements We used qualitative content analysis to explore themes and concepts identified by focus group respondents. Results Seniors and surgeons praised the tool for the unambiguous illustration of multiple treatment options, and the clarity gained from presentation of an array of treatment outcomes. Participants noted that the tool provides both an opportunity for in-the-moment, preference-based deliberation about options and a platform for further discussion with other clinicians and loved ones. Seniors worried that the format of the tool was not universally accessible for patients with different educational backgrounds, while surgeons had concerns that the tool was vulnerable to physicians’ subjective biases. Conclusion The BC/WC tool is a novel decision support intervention that may help facilitate difficult decision making for older adults and their physicians when considering invasive, acute medical treatments such as surgery. PMID:26280462

  17. Dynamic metabolism modelling of urban water services--demonstrating effectiveness as a decision-support tool for Oslo, Norway.

    PubMed

    Venkatesh, G; Sægrov, Sveinung; Brattebø, Helge

    2014-09-15

    Urban water services are challenged from many perspectives and different stakeholders demand performance improvements along economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. In response, urban water utilities systematically give more attention to criteria such as water safety, climate change adaptation and mitigation, environmental life cycle assessment (LCA), total cost efficiency, and on how to improve their operations within the water-energy-carbon nexus. The authors of this paper collaborated in the development of a 'Dynamic Metabolism Model' (DMM). The model is developed for generic use in the sustainability assessment of urban water services, and it has been initially tested for the city of Oslo, Norway. The purpose has been to adopt a holistic systemic perspective to the analysis of metabolism and environmental impacts of resource flows in urban water and wastewater systems, in order to offer a tool for the examination of future strategies and intervention options in such systems. This paper describes the model and its application to the city of Oslo for the analysis time period 2013-2040. The external factors impacting decision-making and interventions are introduced along with realistic scenarios developed for the testing, after consultation with officials at the Oslo Water and Wastewater Works (Norway). Possible interventions that the utility intends to set in motion are defined and numerically interpreted for incorporation into the model, and changes in the indicator values over the time period are determined. This paper aims to demonstrate the effectiveness and usefulness of the DMM, as a decision-support tool for water-wastewater utilities. The scenarios considered and interventions identified do not include all possible scenarios and interventions that can be relevant for water-wastewater utilities.

  18. Cultural Competency of a Mobile, Customized Patient Education Tool for Improving Potential Kidney Transplant Recipients' Knowledge and Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    Axelrod, David A; Kynard-Amerson, Crystal S; Wojciechowski, David; Jacobs, Marie; Lentine, Krista L; Schnitzler, Mark; Peipert, John D; Waterman, Amy D

    2017-03-06

    Patients considering renal transplantation face an increasingly complex array of choices as a result of the revised kidney transplant allocation system. Decision aids have been shown to improve patient decision making through the provision of detailed, relevant, individualized clinical data. A mobile iOS based application (app) including animated patient education and individualized risk adjusted outcomes following kidney transplants with varying donor characteristics and DSA waiting times was piloted in 2 large US transplant programs with a diverse group of renal transplant candidates (N=81). The majority (86%) of patients felt that the app improved their knowledge and was culturally appropriate for their race/ethnicity (67%-85%). Patients scored significantly higher on transplant knowledge testing (9.1/20 to 13.8/20 p<0.001) after viewing the app, including patients with low health literacy (8.0 to 13.0 p<0.001). Overall knowledge of and interest in living and deceased donor kidney transplantation increased. This pilot project confirmed the benefit and cultural acceptability of this educational tool, and further refinement will explore how to better communicate the risks and benefits of non-standard donors. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  19. Priority screening of toxic chemicals and industry sectors in the U.S. toxics release inventory: a comparison of the life cycle impact-based and risk-based assessment tools developed by U.S. EPA.

    PubMed

    Lim, Seong-Rin; Lam, Carl W; Schoenung, Julie M

    2011-09-01

    Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) and Risk Assessment (RA) employ different approaches to evaluate toxic impact potential for their own general applications. LCIA is often used to evaluate toxicity potentials for corporate environmental management and RA is often used to evaluate a risk score for environmental policy in government. This study evaluates the cancer, non-cancer, and ecotoxicity potentials and risk scores of chemicals and industry sectors in the United States on the basis of the LCIA- and RA-based tools developed by U.S. EPA, and compares the priority screening of toxic chemicals and industry sectors identified with each method to examine whether the LCIA- and RA-based results lead to the same prioritization schemes. The Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts (TRACI) is applied as an LCIA-based screening approach with a focus on air and water emissions, and the Risk-Screening Environmental Indicator (RSEI) is applied in equivalent fashion as an RA-based screening approach. The U.S. Toxic Release Inventory is used as the dataset for this analysis, because of its general applicability to a comprehensive list of chemical substances and industry sectors. Overall, the TRACI and RSEI results do not agree with each other in part due to the unavailability of characterization factors and toxic scores for select substances, but primarily because of their different evaluation approaches. Therefore, TRACI and RSEI should be used together both to support a more comprehensive and robust approach to screening of chemicals for environmental management and policy and to highlight substances that are found to be of concern from both perspectives.

  20. Risk-Based Explosive Safety Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-11-30

    safety siting of energetic liquids and propellants can be greatly aided by the use of risk-based methodologies. The low probability of exposed...of energetic liquids and propellants can be greatly aided by the use of risk-based methodologies. The low probability of exposed personnel and the

  1. Risk-Based Decision Support of Water Resource Management Alternatives

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-12-01

    22.5 kilometers) in Pennsylvania and Maryland, was created in 1928 with the completion of the Conowingo dam . [1] The Conowingo system gradually...The Conowingo Dam is one of four hydroelectric projects on the lower Susquehanna River. All are regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission...components. In the Conowingo Dam system, the dam itself is a structural component; turbines, flood gates are related equipment are operating components

  2. The SfM-monitored rill experiment, a tool to detect decisive processes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Remke, Alexander-André; Wirtz, Stefan; Brings, Christine; Gronz, Oliver; Seeger, Manuel; Ries, Johannes B.

    2016-04-01

    The initiation of rill erosion marks the transition from sheet to linear erosion. With this transition, the relevant processes change and therefore, the observation method needs to be changed too: from observing rainfall induced drop impacts to hydraulic observations. For us, the investigation of the decisive processes in eroding rills resulted in a constantly revised and updated rill erosion experiment, that has been used for several years. Within this experiment the sediment transport behavior of rills is simulated and examined. To make the experiment repeatable and replicable, several key-variables have to be kept constant, i.e. water quantity (1000 L), test duration (approx. 4 min.) and the length of the tested rill section (20 m). For each tested rill, the topographic background is determined i.e. catchment area, aspect, slope, position and height of existing knick-points and three cross-sections. After the initial assessment, the rill is flushed with water (250 L min -1) twice in order to determine the modifications of the rill caused by the flowing water. Within these approx. 4 minutes of "controlled destruction" the velocity of the turbulently flowing water at the beginning of the erosional event and after one and two minutes is determined and the corresponding water depth is recorded using three gauges at selected measuring points. At the end of the tested rill segment, the discharge is constantly monitored. Unfortunately, the results of this rill experiment do not directly show the modifications caused by the artificial waterflow. A way out of this knowledge gap is offered by combining this experimental measurement method with a technique already used in different scientific disciplines in more large-scale applications. Structure-from-Motion technology offers the opportunity to get a different, more detailed view inside the erosion rills. A static multi-camera-array and a dynamically moved digital video-frame camera are now used to obtain three

  3. Subtask 1.18 - A Decision Tool for Watershed-Based Effluent Trading

    SciTech Connect

    Xixi Wang; Bethany A. Kurz; Marc D. Kurz

    2006-11-30

    Handling produced water in an economical and environmentally sound manner is vital to coalbed methane (CBM) development, which is expected to increase up to 60% in the next 10-15 years as the demand for natural gas increases. Current produced water-handling methods (e.g., shallow reinjection and infiltration impoundments) are too costly when implemented on a well-by-well basis. A watershed-based effluent credit trading approach may be a means of managing produced water at reduced cost while meeting or surpassing water quality regulations. This market-based approach allows for improved water quality management by enabling industrial, agricultural, and municipal discharge facilities to meet water quality permit requirements by purchasing pollutant reduction credits from other entities within the same watershed. An evaluation of this concept was conducted for the Powder River Basin (PRB) of Montana and Wyoming by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC). To conduct this assessment, the EERC collected and evaluated existing water quality information and developed the appropriate tools needed to assess the environmental and economic feasibility of specific trading scenarios. The accomplishments of this study include (1) an exploration of the available PRB water quantity and quality data using advanced statistical techniques, (2) development of an integrated water quality model that predicts the impacts of CBM produced water on stream salinity and sodicity, (3) development of an economic model that estimates costs and benefits from implementing potential trading options, (4) evaluation of hypothetical trading scenarios between select watersheds of the PRB, and (5) communication of the project concept and results to key state and federal agencies, industry representatives, and stakeholders of the PRB. The preliminary results of a basinwide assessment indicate that up to $684 million could be saved basinwide without compromising water quality as a result of

  4. A Mobile Clinical Decision Support Tool for Pediatric Cardiovascular Risk-Reduction Clinical Practice Guidelines: Development and Description

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Background Widespread application of research findings to improve patient outcomes remains inadequate, and failure to routinely translate research findings into daily clinical practice is a major barrier for the implementation of any evidence-based guideline. Strategies to increase guideline uptake in primary care pediatric practices and to facilitate adherence to recommendations are required. Objective Our objective was to operationalize the US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute’s Integrated Guidelines for Cardiovascular Health and Risk Reduction in Children and Adolescents into a mobile clinical decision support (CDS) system for healthcare providers, and to describe the process development and outcomes. Methods To overcome the difficulty of translating clinical practice guidelines into a computable form that can be used by a CDS system, we used a multilayer framework to convert the evidence synthesis into executable knowledge. We used an iterative process of design, testing, and revision through each step in the translation of the guidelines for use in a CDS tool to support the development of 4 validated modules: an integrated risk assessment; a blood pressure calculator; a body mass index calculator; and a lipid management instrument. Results The iterative revision process identified several opportunities to improve the CDS tool. Operationalizing the integrated guideline identified numerous areas in which the guideline was vague or incorrect and required more explicit operationalization. Iterative revisions led to workable solutions to problems and understanding of the limitations of the tool. Conclusions The process and experiences described provide a model for other mobile CDS systems that translate written clinical practice guidelines into actionable, real-time clinical recommendations. PMID:28270384

  5. sandflyDST: a dynamic web-based decision support tool for the morphological identification of sandflies present in Anatolia and mainland Europe, and user study.

    PubMed

    Karakülah, G; Karakuş, M; Suner, A; Demir, S; Arserim, S K; Töz, S; Özbel, Y

    2016-09-01

    Species identification of sandflies is mainly performed according to morphological characters using classical written identification keys. This study introduces a new web-based decision support tool (sandflyDST) for guiding the morphological identification of sandfly species present in Anatolia and mainland Europe and classified in the Phlebotomus and Sergentomyia genera (both: Diptera: Psychodidae). The current version of the tool consists of 111 questions and 36 drawings obtained from classical written keys, and 107 photographs for the quick and easy identification of 26 species of the genus Phlebotomus and four species of the genus Sergentomyia. The tool guides users through a decision tree using yes/no questions about the morphological characters of the specimen. The tool was applied by 30 individuals, who then completed study questionnaires. The results of subsequent analyses indicated that the usability (x‾SUSScore=75.4) and users' level of appreciation (86.6%) of the tool were quite high; almost all of the participants considered recommending the tool to others. The tool may also be useful in training new entomologists and maintaining their level of expertise. This is a dynamic tool and can be improved or upgraded according to feedback. The tool is now available online at http://parasitology.ege.edu.tr/sandflyDST/index.php.

  6. Assessing the need for an online decision-support tool to promote evidence-based practices of psychosocial counseling in HIV care.

    PubMed

    Kukafka, Rita; Millery, Mari; Chan, Connie; LaRock, William; Bakken, Suzanne

    2009-01-01

    Psychosocial counselors have a vital and challenging role in supporting persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWH/A) to better manage their disease. However, gaps in training, education, and skills limit the effectiveness of counselors' efforts. We propose that the use of a decision-support tool for counselors at the point of care can support them in their work as well as help alleviate many training and practice gaps. Decision-support tools aimed at reducing knowledge and practice gaps are used extensively to assist clinical providers at the point of care; however, there is a need for decision-support tools designed specifically for HIV/AIDS counselors. To identify requirements for such a tool, we conducted a needs assessment through interviews of 19 HIV/AIDS clinic counselors who provide 20 or more hours per week of psychosocial support to PLWH/A. The assessment explored their education and training backgrounds, the extent to which evidence-based practices are implemented, and how a decision-support tool can support counselor work practices. Qualitative analysis was organized around seven main categories: counselor characteristics, patient characteristics, barriers, definitions of key concepts, use of guidelines, client assessments, and resources. The resulting coding schemes revealed knowledge and practice gaps among the interviewees, as well as barriers and challenges of counseling. Education and training background of the counseling staff varied widely. When asked to define five key concepts related to HIV counseling, 26-47% of respondents were unable to articulate an adequate definition. Less than half of the interviewees recalled sources of guidelines used in their work and specific models of care introduced during trainings. Interviews identified environmental barriers, language and literacy, patient education, and patient communication as the most prominent challenges to counseling work. The results from this study inform the need for and development of a

  7. Risk-based approach to petroleum hydrocarbon remediation. Research study

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, R.N.; Haas, P.; Faile, M.; Taffinder, S.

    1994-12-31

    The risk-based approach utilizes tools developed under the BTEX, Intrinsic Remediation (natural attenuation), Bioslurper, and Bioventing Initiatives of the Air Force Center for Environmental Excellence Technology Transfer Division (AFCEE/ERT) to construct a risk-based cost-effective approach to the cleanup of petroleum contaminated sites. The AFCEE Remediation Matrix (Enclosure 1) identifies natural attenuation as the first remediation alternative for soil and ground water contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons. The intrinsic remediation (natural attenuation) alternative requires a scientifically defensible risk assessment based on contaminant sources, pathways, and receptors. For fuel contaminated sites, the first step is to determine contaminants of interest. For the ground water pathway (usually considered most important by regulators), this will normally be the most soluble, mobile, and toxic compounds, namely benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, and o, m, p, xylene (BTEX).

  8. Climate Risk Management and Decision Support Tools for the Agriculture Sector in Lao PDR, Bangladesh, and Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allis, E. C.; Greene, A. M.; Cousin, R.

    2014-12-01

    We describe a comprehensive project for developing climate information and decision support / climate risk management tools in Lao PDR, Bangladesh and Indonesia. Mechanisms are developed for bringing the benefits of these tools to both policy makers and poor rural farmers, with the goal of enabling better management, at the farm level, of the risks associated with climate variability and change. The project comprises several interwoven threads, differentially applied in the different study regions. These include data management and quality control, development of seasonal forecast capabilities, use of dynamic cropping calendars and climate advisories, the development of longer-term climate information for both past and future and a weather index insurance component. Stakeholder engagement and capacity building served as reinforcing and complementary elements to all components. In this talk we will provide a project overview, show how the various components fit together and describe some lessons learned in this attempt to promote the uptake of actionable climate information from farmer to policy level. The applied research project was led by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University with funding from the International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and in close collaboration with our regional partners at the Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in Southeast Asia Pacific (at Bogor Agricultural University in Indonesia), Indonesia's National Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Lao PDR's National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute (NAFRI), Laotian Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), WorldFish Center, Bangladesh Meteorology Department (BMD), and CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

  9. Risk-based planning analysis for a single levee

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, Rui; Jachens, Elizabeth; Lund, Jay

    2016-04-01

    Traditional risk-based analysis for levee planning focuses primarily on overtopping failure. Although many levees fail before overtopping, few planning studies explicitly include intermediate geotechnical failures in flood risk analysis. This study develops a risk-based model for two simplified levee failure modes: overtopping failure and overall intermediate geotechnical failure from through-seepage, determined by the levee cross section represented by levee height and crown width. Overtopping failure is based only on water level and levee height, while through-seepage failure depends on many geotechnical factors as well, mathematically represented here as a function of levee crown width using levee fragility curves developed from professional judgment or analysis. These levee planning decisions are optimized to minimize the annual expected total cost, which sums expected (residual) annual flood damage and annualized construction costs. Applicability of this optimization approach to planning new levees or upgrading existing levees is demonstrated preliminarily for a levee on a small river protecting agricultural land, and a major levee on a large river protecting a more valuable urban area. Optimized results show higher likelihood of intermediate geotechnical failure than overtopping failure. The effects of uncertainty in levee fragility curves, economic damage potential, construction costs, and hydrology (changing climate) are explored. Optimal levee crown width is more sensitive to these uncertainties than height, while the derived general principles and guidelines for risk-based optimal levee planning remain the same.

  10. Below the Surface: New Tools--And Savvy Librarians--Are Turning the ILS into a Gold Mine for Making More Informed Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cummins, Caroline

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses the benefits offered by integrated library systems (ILS) for making more informed decisions. Library software vendors, realizing ILS products can reveal business intelligence, have begun to offer tools like Director's Station to help library managers get more out of their data, and librarians are taking…

  11. Class Evolution Tree: A Graphical Tool to Support Decisions on the Number of Classes in Exploratory Categorical Latent Variable Modeling for Rehabilitation Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kriston, Levente; Melchior, Hanne; Hergert, Anika; Bergelt, Corinna; Watzke, Birgit; Schulz, Holger; von Wolff, Alessa

    2011-01-01

    The aim of our study was to develop a graphical tool that can be used in addition to standard statistical criteria to support decisions on the number of classes in explorative categorical latent variable modeling for rehabilitation research. Data from two rehabilitation research projects were used. In the first study, a latent profile analysis was…

  12. Barriers and Facilitators to Patient-Provider Communication When Discussing Breast Cancer Risk to Aid in the Development of Decision Support Tools

    PubMed Central

    Yi, Haeseung; Xiao, Tong; Thomas, Parijatham S.; Aguirre, Alejandra N.; Smalletz, Cindy; Dimond, Jill; Finkelstein, Joseph; Infante, Katherine; Trivedi, Meghna; David, Raven; Vargas, Jennifer; Crew, Katherine D.; Kukafka, Rita

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify barriers and facilitators to patient-provider communication when discussing breast cancer risk to aid in the development of decision support tools. Four patient focus groups (N=34) and eight provider focus groups (N=10) took place in Northern Manhattan. A qualitative analysis was conducted using Atlas.ti software. The coding yielded 62.3%–94.5% agreement. The results showed that 1) barriers are time constraints, lack of knowledge, low health literacy, and language barriers, and 2) facilitators are information needs, desire for personalization, and autonomy when communicating risk in patient-provider encounters. These results will inform the development of a patient-centered decision aid (RealRisks) and a provider-facing breast cancer risk navigation (BNAV) tool, which are designed to facilitate patient-provider risk communication and shared decision-making about breast cancer prevention strategies, such as chemoprevention. PMID:26958276

  13. Barriers and Facilitators to Patient-Provider Communication When Discussing Breast Cancer Risk to Aid in the Development of Decision Support Tools.

    PubMed

    Yi, Haeseung; Xiao, Tong; Thomas, Parijatham S; Aguirre, Alejandra N; Smalletz, Cindy; Dimond, Jill; Finkelstein, Joseph; Infante, Katherine; Trivedi, Meghna; David, Raven; Vargas, Jennifer; Crew, Katherine D; Kukafka, Rita

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify barriers and facilitators to patient-provider communication when discussing breast cancer risk to aid in the development of decision support tools. Four patient focus groups (N=34) and eight provider focus groups (N=10) took place in Northern Manhattan. A qualitative analysis was conducted using Atlas.ti software. The coding yielded 62.3%-94.5% agreement. The results showed that 1) barriers are time constraints, lack of knowledge, low health literacy, and language barriers, and 2) facilitators are information needs, desire for personalization, and autonomy when communicating risk in patient-provider encounters. These results will inform the development of a patient-centered decision aid (RealRisks) and a provider-facing breast cancer risk navigation (BNAV) tool, which are designed to facilitate patient-provider risk communication and shared decision-making about breast cancer prevention strategies, such as chemoprevention.

  14. Anticipating hyperthermic efficiency of magnetic colloids using a semi-empirical model: a tool to help medical decisions.

    PubMed

    Fernández van Raap, M B; Coral, D F; Yu, S; Muñoz, G A; Sánchez, F H; Roig, A

    2017-03-08

    Magnetic hyperthermia, a modality that uses radio frequency heating assisted with single-domain magnetic nanoparticles, is becoming established as a powerful oncological therapy. Much improvement in nanomaterials development, to enhance their heating efficiency by tuning the magnetic colloidal properties, has been achieved. However, methodological standardization to accurately and univocally determine the colloidal properties required to numerically reproduce a specific heating efficiency using analytical expressions still holds. Thus, anticipating the hyperthermic performances of magnetic colloids entails high complexity due to polydispersity, aggregation and dipolar interactions always present in real materials to a greater or lesser degree. Here, by numerically simulating the experimental results and using real biomedical aqueous colloids, we analyse and compare several approaches to reproduce experimental specific absorption rate values. Then, we show that the relaxation time, determined using a representative mean activation energy consistently derived from four independent experiments accurately reproduces experimental heating efficiencies. Moreover, the so-derived relaxation time can be used to extrapolate the heating performance of the magnetic nanoparticles to the other field conditions within the framework of the linear response theory. We thus present a practical tool that may truly aid the design of medical decisions.

  15. Continuous high-frequency monitoring of estuarine water quality as a decision support tool: a Dublin Port case study.

    PubMed

    Briciu-Burghina, Ciprian; Sullivan, Timothy; Chapman, James; Regan, Fiona

    2014-09-01

    High-frequency, continuous monitoring using in situ sensors offers a comprehensive and improved insight into the temporal and spatial variability of any water body. In this paper, we describe a 7-month exploratory monitoring programme in Dublin Port, demonstrating the value of high-frequency data in enhancing knowledge of processes, informing discrete sampling, and ultimately increasing the efficiency of port and environmental management. Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests were used to show that shipping operating in Dublin Port has a small-medium effect on turbidity readings collected by in situ sensors. Turbidity events are largely related to vessel activity in Dublin Port, caused by re-suspension of sediments by vessel propulsion systems. The magnitudes of such events are strongly related to water level and tidal state at vessel arrival times. Crucially, measurements of Escherichia coli and enterococci contamination from discrete samples taken at key periods related to detected turbidity events were up to nine times higher after vessel arrival than prior to disturbance. Daily in situ turbidity patterns revealed time-dependent water quality "hot spots" during a 24-h period. We demonstrate conclusively that if representative environmental assessment of water quality is to be performed at such sites, sampling times, informed by continous monitoring data, should take into account these daily variations. This work outlines the potential of sensor technologies and continuous monitoring, to act as a decision support tool in both environmental and port management.

  16. Decision Support Tool Evaluation Report for General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment(GNOME) Version 2.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie; Zanoni, Vicki; Blonski, Slawomir; D'Sa, Eurico; Estep, Lee; Holland, Donald; Moore, Roxzana F.; Pagnutti, Mary; Terrie, Gregory

    2004-01-01

    NASA's Earth Science Applications Directorate evaluated the potential of NASA remote sensing data and modeling products to enhance the General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment (GNOME) decision support tool. NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) Hazardous Materials (HAZMAT) Response Division is interested in enhancing GNOME with near-realtime (NRT) NASA remote sensing products on oceanic winds and ocean circulation. The NASA SeaWinds sea surface wind and Jason-1 sea surface height NRT products have potential, as do sea surface temperature and reflectance products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and sea surface reflectance products from Landsat and the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflectance Radiometer. HAZMAT is also interested in the Advanced Circulation model and the Ocean General Circulation Model. Certain issues must be considered, including lack of data continuity, marginal data redundancy, and data formatting problems. Spatial resolution is an issue for near-shore GNOME applications. Additional work will be needed to incorporate NASA inputs into GNOME, including verification and validation of data products, algorithms, models, and NRT data.

  17. Towards risk-based drought management in the Netherlands: quantifying the welfare effects of water shortage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Vat, Marnix; Femke, Schasfoort; Rhee Gigi, Van; Manfred, Wienhoven; Nico, Polman; Joost, Delsman; den Hoek Paul, Van; Maat Judith, Ter; Marjolein, Mens

    2016-04-01

    It is widely acknowledged that drought management should move from a crisis to a risk-based approach. A risk-based approach to managing water resources requires a sound drought risk analysis, quantifying the probability and impacts of water shortage due to droughts. Impacts of droughts are for example crop yield losses, hydropower production losses, and water shortage for municipal and industrial use. Many studies analyse the balance between supply and demand, but there is little experience in translating this into economic metrics that can be used in a decision-making process on investments to reduce drought risk. We will present a drought risk analysis method for the Netherlands, with a focus on the underlying economic method to quantify the welfare effects of water shortage for different water users. Both the risk-based approach as well as the economic valuation of water shortage for various water users was explored in a study for the Dutch Government. First, an historic analysis of the effects of droughts on revenues and prices in agriculture as well as on shipping and nature was carried out. Second, a drought risk analysis method was developed that combines drought hazard and drought impact analysis in a probabilistic way for various sectors. This consists of a stepwise approach, from water availability through water shortage to economic impact, for a range of drought events with a certain return period. Finally, a local case study was conducted to test the applicability of the drought risk analysis method. Through the study, experience was gained into integrating hydrological and economic analyses, which is a prerequisite for drought risk analysis. Results indicate that the risk analysis method is promising and applicable for various sectors. However, it was also found that quantification of economic impacts from droughts is time-consuming, because location- and sector-specific data is needed, which is not always readily available. Furthermore, for some

  18. Automated Testability Decision Tool

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-09-01

    probabilities FD 1 , FD 2, and FD 3. Their formulations are: FD1 = FD. (1 - FDA) (2-78) FD2 = FDA (1 - FD.’) (2-79) FD 3 = FD FDA (2-80) where FD. is the...aggregate of the elemental detection times. Ultimately, the value TD+ is computed as the quotient of ADT’+ and FDR’+ where FDR’+ = K (FD, + FD2 + FD 3...Flight line hardware burden (FLHB). Thus, equation (4-80) yields: CBF = FLHB (4-90) In order to compute the FLHB, we will show a step-by-step gene

  19. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    SciTech Connect

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M.

    1995-12-31

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities.

  20. A risk-based methodology for ranking environmental chemical stressors at the regional scale.

    PubMed

    Giubilato, Elisa; Zabeo, Alex; Critto, Andrea; Giove, Silvio; Bierkens, Johan; Den Hond, Elly; Marcomini, Antonio

    2014-04-01

    A "Risk-based Tool for the Regional Ranking of Environmental Chemical Stressors" has been developed, aimed at supporting decision-makers in the identification of priority environmental contaminants, as well as priority areas, to be further assessed. The tool implements a methodology based on a quantitative Weight-of-Evidence approach, integrating three types of information, identified as "Lines-of-Evidence" (LoE), namely: LoE "Environmental Contamination" (including data on chemical contamination in environmental matrices in the region, thus providing information on potential population exposure), LoE "Intake" (including results from human biomonitoring studies, i.e. concentration of chemicals in human biological matrices, thus providing an integrated estimation of exposure) and LoE "Observed Effects" (including information on the incidence of adverse health outcomes associated with environmental exposure to chemicals). A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodology based on fuzzy logic has been developed to support the integration of information related to these three LoEs for each chemical stressor. The tool allows one to rank chemical stressors at different spatial scales, such as at the regional level as well as within each sub-area (e.g., counties). Moreover, it supports the identification of priority sub-areas within the region, where environmental and health data suggest possible adverse health effects and thus more investigation efforts are needed. To evaluate the performance of this newly developed tool, a case-study in the Flemish region (north of Belgium) has been selected. In the case-study, data on soil contamination by metals and organic contaminants were integrated with data on exposure and effect biomarkers measured in adolescents within the framework of the human biomonitoring study performed by the Flemish Centre of Expertise on Environment and Health in the period 2002-2006. The case-study demonstrated the performance of the tool in

  1. Opportunities and Challenges in Using Hydrologic Information and Decision Support Tools to Improve Livelihoods in Burkina Faso, West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirshen, P.; Jost, C.; Roncoli, M. C.; Hoogenboom, G.

    2006-12-01

    Burkina Faso is part of the Sahel-Sudan climatic zone south of the Sahara Desert. The rainfall of the region is characterized by extreme seasonal and annual temporal and spatial variability. Soils are generally of low fertility. The major livelihood activity in Burkina Faso, one of the lowest ranked countries in the world in the Human Development Index where 80 percent of the population rely on subsistence farming, is rainfed cultivation of cereal crops. Cotton is the dominant export crop and is mostly grown in the southwest. Livestock management is an important complement to farm activities, especially in the Sahelian zone. There are several major rivers flowing through the region and many ephemeral streams. Surface water resources are becoming more important to Burkina Faso as it tries to improve food security and water supplies, and increase energy production. One of the major opportunities to improve livelihoods in the region has been improvements in seasonal rainfall forecasting based upon global sea surface temperatures. In the past decade, the generation and use of forecasts in Burkina Faso has evolved from the nation just receiving forecasts almost as an after thought from USA and European meteorological services to the Burkina Faso Meteorological Services generating their own forecasts with support from these services. There is now also more focused international research on improving the forecasts for this region. The use of stochastic decision support tools (DST) that combine the seasonal forecasts with hydrologic and crop models, land conditions, and information on farmer and policy maker goals could improve both rainfed and irrigated agricultural systems. Their implementation requires overcoming many technical and socio-economic challenges. Examples include forecasting the start and end of rains, dissemination and explanation of forecasts, streamflow forecasting in data scarce regions, possible different incentives for subsistence and cash crop farmers

  2. Greenhouse Gases Life Cycle Assessment (GHGLCA) as a decision support tool for municipal solid waste management in Iran

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background One of the most problems in developing countries is the integrated waste management and the effects on Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emission, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used in this paper as a decision supporting tool in planning Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) managements. Methods In this paper the EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM) that provide GHG emission factors for waste stream components that are based on life Cycle Inventory (LCI) framework were used and The MSW management methods comprised in seven scenarios. Results The amount of GHG which was generated from Iran’s waste sector estimated about 17836079 Metric Tons of Carbon dioxide Equivalents (MT CO2e) in this study. The lowest amount of GHG was generated by LFG capture system with energy recovery (557635 MT CO2e), while Incineration of materials being sent to landfill (1756823 MT CO2e), Landfill Gas (LFG) capture system with flaring (2929150 MT CO2e) and Improved source reduction and recycling (4780278 MT CO2e) emitted fewer GHG than the other scenarios. Lowest levels of gross energy consumption occur in source reduction with recycling and composting (-89356240 Mega British Thermal Unit, M BTU), recycling and composting (-86772060 M BTU) as well as Improved source reduction with recycling and composting (-54794888 M BTU). Conclusions It appears that recycling and composting each offer significant GHG emissions and energy consumption reductions (scenarios 4, 5 and 6). Upon of the GHG emission and energy consumption results concluded that improved source reduction and recycling scenario has been the Balanced and appropriate technology for handling the solid waste streams in municipalities. PMID:24910776

  3. Regional-scale scenario modeling for coral reefs: a decision support tool to inform management of a complex system.

    PubMed

    Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Johnson, Craig R; Fung, Tak; Seymour, Robert M; Chérubin, Laurent M; Arias-González, J Ernesto; Fulton, Elizabeth A

    2011-06-01

    The worldwide decline of coral reefs threatens the livelihoods of coastal communities and puts at risk valuable ecosystem services provided by reefs. There is a pressing need for robust predictions of potential futures of coral reef and associated human systems under alternative management scenarios. Understanding and predicting the dynamics of coral reef systems at regional scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers is imperative, because reef systems are connected by physical and socioeconomic processes across regions and often across international boundaries. We present a spatially explicit regional-scale model of ecological dynamics for a general coral reef system. In designing our model as a tool for decision support, we gave precedence to portability and accessibility; the model can be parameterized for dissimilar coral reef systems in different parts of the world, and the model components and outputs are understandable for nonexperts. The model simulates local-scale dynamics, which are coupled across regions through larval connectivity between reefs. We validate our model using an instantiation for the Meso-American Reef system. The model realistically captures local and regional ecological dynamics and responds to external forcings in the form of harvesting, pollution, and physical damage (e.g., hurricanes, coral bleaching) to produce trajectories that largely fall within limits observed in the real system. Moreover, the model demonstrates behaviors that have relevance for management considerations. In particular, differences in larval supply between reef localities drive spatial variability in modeled reef community structure. Reef tracts for which recruitment is low are more vulnerable to natural disturbance and synergistic effects of anthropogenic stressors. Our approach provides a framework for projecting the likelihood of different reef futures at local to regional scales, with important applications for the management of complex coral reef systems.

  4. Integrated Simulation Development and Decision Support Tool-Set for Utility Market and Distributed Solar Power Generation Electricore, Inc.

    SciTech Connect

    Daye, Tony

    2013-09-30

    This project will enable utilities to develop long-term strategic plans that integrate high levels of renewable energy generation, and to better plan power system operations under high renewable penetration. The program developed forecast data streams for decision support and effective integration of centralized and distributed solar power generation in utility operations. This toolset focused on real time simulation of distributed power generation within utility grids with the emphasis on potential applications in day ahead (market) and real time (reliability) utility operations. The project team developed and demonstrated methodologies for quantifying the impact of distributed solar generation on core utility operations, identified protocols for internal data communication requirements, and worked with utility personnel to adapt the new distributed generation (DG) forecasts seamlessly within existing Load and Generation procedures through a sophisticated DMS. This project supported the objectives of the SunShot Initiative and SUNRISE by enabling core utility operations to enhance their simulation capability to analyze and prepare for the impacts of high penetrations of solar on the power grid. The impact of high penetration solar PV on utility operations is not only limited to control centers, but across many core operations. Benefits of an enhanced DMS using state-of-the-art solar forecast data were demonstrated within this project and have had an immediate direct operational cost savings for Energy Marketing for Day Ahead generation commitments, Real Time Operations, Load Forecasting (at an aggregate system level for Day Ahead), Demand Response, Long term Planning (asset management), Distribution Operations, and core ancillary services as required for balancing and reliability. This provided power system operators with the necessary tools and processes to operate the grid in a reliable manner under high renewable penetration.

  5. Uncertainty Analysis of Coupled Socioeconomic-Cropping Models: Building Confidence in Climate Change Decision-Support Tools for Local Stakeholders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malard, J. J.; Rojas, M.; Adamowski, J. F.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

    2015-12-01

    While cropping models represent the biophysical aspects of agricultural systems, system dynamics modelling offers the possibility of representing the socioeconomic (including social and cultural) aspects of these systems. The two types of models can then be coupled in order to include the socioeconomic dimensions of climate change adaptation in the predictions of cropping models.We develop a dynamically coupled socioeconomic-biophysical model of agricultural production and its repercussions on food security in two case studies from Guatemala (a market-based, intensive agricultural system and a low-input, subsistence crop-based system). Through the specification of the climate inputs to the cropping model, the impacts of climate change on the entire system can be analysed, and the participatory nature of the system dynamics model-building process, in which stakeholders from NGOs to local governmental extension workers were included, helps ensure local trust in and use of the model.However, the analysis of climate variability's impacts on agroecosystems includes uncertainty, especially in the case of joint physical-socioeconomic modelling, and the explicit representation of this uncertainty in the participatory development of the models is important to ensure appropriate use of the models by the end users. In addition, standard model calibration, validation, and uncertainty interval estimation techniques used for physically-based models are impractical in the case of socioeconomic modelling. We present a methodology for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of coupled biophysical (cropping) and system dynamics (socioeconomic) agricultural models, using survey data and expert input to calibrate and evaluate the uncertainty of the system dynamics as well as of the overall coupled model. This approach offers an important tool for local decision makers to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change and their feedbacks through the associated socioeconomic system.

  6. Applying decision-making tools to national e-waste recycling policy: an example of Analytic Hierarchy Process.

    PubMed

    Lin, Chun-Hsu; Wen, Lihchyi; Tsai, Yue-Mi

    2010-05-01

    As policy making is in essence a process of discussion, decision-making tools have in many cases been proposed to resolve the differences of opinion among the different parties. In our project that sought to promote a country's performance in recycling, we used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate the possibilities and determine the priority of the addition of new mandatory recycled waste, also referred to as Due Recycled Wastes, from candidate waste appliances. The evaluation process started with the collection of data based on telephone interviews and field investigations to understand the behavior of consumers as well as their overall opinions regarding the disposal of certain waste appliances. With the data serving as background information, the research team then implemented the Analytic Hierarchy Process using the information that formed an incomplete hierarchy structure in order to determine the priority for recycling. Since the number of objects to be evaluated exceeded the number that the AHP researchers had suggested, we reclassified the objects into four groups and added one more level of pair-wise comparisons, which substantially reduced the inconsistency in the judgment of the AHP participants. The project was found to serve as a flexible and achievable application of AHP to the environmental policy-making process. In addition, based on the project's outcomes derived from the project as a whole, the research team drew conclusions regarding the government's need to take back 15 of the items evaluated, and suggested instruments that could be used or recycling regulations that could be changed in the future. Further analysis on the top three items recommended by the results of the evaluation for recycling, namely, Compact Disks, Cellular Phones and Computer Keyboards, was then conducted to clarify their concrete feasibility. After the trial period for recycling ordered by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration, only Computer

  7. Ecosystem Services Decision Support: A Living Database of Existing Tools, Approaches and Techniques for Supporting Decisions Related to Ecosystem Services (Poster)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Planners and decision makers are challenged to consider not only direct market costs, but also ecological externalities. There is an increasing emphasis on ecosystem services in the context of human well-being, and therefore the valuation and accounting of ecosystem services is b...

  8. Promoting Awareness of Key Resources for Evidence-Informed Decision-making in Public Health: An Evaluation of a Webinar Series about Knowledge Translation Methods and Tools.

    PubMed

    Yost, Jennifer; Mackintosh, Jeannie; Read, Kristin; Dobbins, Maureen

    2016-01-01

    The National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools (NCCMT) has developed several resources to support evidence-informed decision-making - the process of distilling and disseminating best available evidence from research, context, and experience - and knowledge translation, applying best evidence in practice. One such resource, the Registry of Methods and Tools, is a free online database of 195 methods and tools to support knowledge translation. Building on the identification of webinars as a strategy to improve the dissemination of information, NCCMT launched the Spotlight on Knowledge Translation Methods and Tools webinar series in 2012 to promote awareness and use of the Registry. To inform continued implementation of this webinar series, NCCMT conducted an evaluation of the series' potential to improve awareness and use of the methods/tools within the Registry, as well as identify areas for improvement and "what worked." For this evaluation, the following data were analyzed: electronic follow-up surveys administered immediately following each webinar; an additional electronic survey administered 6 months after two webinars; and Google Analytics for each webinar. As of November 2015, there have been 22 webinars conducted, reaching 2048 people in multiple sectors across Canada and around the world. Evaluation results indicate that the webinars increase awareness about the Registry and stimulate use of the methods/tools. Although webinar attendees were significantly less likely to have used the methods/tools 6 months after webinars, this may be attributed to the lack of an identified opportunity in their work to use the method/tool. Despite technological challenges and requests for further examples of how the methods/tools have been used, there is overwhelming positive feedback that the format, presenters, content, and interaction across webinars "worked." This evaluation supports that webinars are a valuable strategy for increasing awareness and

  9. Promoting Awareness of Key Resources for Evidence-Informed Decision-making in Public Health: An Evaluation of a Webinar Series about Knowledge Translation Methods and Tools

    PubMed Central

    Yost, Jennifer; Mackintosh, Jeannie; Read, Kristin; Dobbins, Maureen

    2016-01-01

    The National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools (NCCMT) has developed several resources to support evidence-informed decision-making – the process of distilling and disseminating best available evidence from research, context, and experience – and knowledge translation, applying best evidence in practice. One such resource, the Registry of Methods and Tools, is a free online database of 195 methods and tools to support knowledge translation. Building on the identification of webinars as a strategy to improve the dissemination of information, NCCMT launched the Spotlight on Knowledge Translation Methods and Tools webinar series in 2012 to promote awareness and use of the Registry. To inform continued implementation of this webinar series, NCCMT conducted an evaluation of the series’ potential to improve awareness and use of the methods/tools within the Registry, as well as identify areas for improvement and “what worked.” For this evaluation, the following data were analyzed: electronic follow-up surveys administered immediately following each webinar; an additional electronic survey administered 6 months after two webinars; and Google Analytics for each webinar. As of November 2015, there have been 22 webinars conducted, reaching 2048 people in multiple sectors across Canada and around the world. Evaluation results indicate that the webinars increase awareness about the Registry and stimulate use of the methods/tools. Although webinar attendees were significantly less likely to have used the methods/tools 6 months after webinars, this may be attributed to the lack of an identified opportunity in their work to use the method/tool. Despite technological challenges and requests for further examples of how the methods/tools have been used, there is overwhelming positive feedback that the format, presenters, content, and interaction across webinars “worked.” This evaluation supports that webinars are a valuable strategy for increasing awareness

  10. Enhanced Chemical Incident Response Plan (ECIRP). Appendix F, remediation analysis with Decision Support Tools (DSTs) for wide-area chemical hazards.

    SciTech Connect

    Hassig, Nancy L.; Pulsipher, Brent A.; Foltz, Greg W.; Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2011-07-01

    The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) commissioned an assessment of the Consequence Management (CM) plans in place on military bases for response to a chemical attack. The effectiveness of the CM plans for recovering from chemical incidents was modeled using a multiple Decision Support Tools (DSTs). First, a scenario was developed based on an aerial dispersion of a chemical agent over a wide-area of land. The extent of contamination was modeled with the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) tool. Subsequently, the Analyzer for Wide Area Restoration Effectiveness (AWARE) tool was used to estimate the cost and time demands for remediation based on input of contamination maps, sampling and decontamination resources, strategies, rates and costs. The sampling strategies incorporated in the calculation were designed using the Visual Sample Plan (VSP) tool. Based on a gaps assessment and the DST remediation analysis, an Enhanced Chemical Incident Response Plan (ECIRP) was developed.

  11. Diagnosis of Cattle Diseases Endemic to Sub-Saharan Africa: Evaluating a Low Cost Decision Support Tool in Use by Veterinary Personnel

    PubMed Central

    Eisler, Mark C.; Magona, Joseph W.; Revie, Crawford W.

    2012-01-01

    Background Diagnosis is key to control and prevention of livestock diseases. In areas of sub-Saharan Africa where private practitioners rarely replace Government veterinary services reduced in effectiveness by structural adjustment programmes, those who remain lack resources for diagnosis and might benefit from decision support. Methodology/Principal Findings We evaluated whether a low-cost diagnostic decision support tool would lead to changes in clinical diagnostic practice by fifteen veterinary and animal health officers undertaking primary animal healthcare in Uganda. The eight diseases covered by the tool included 98% of all bovine diagnoses made before or after its introduction. It may therefore inform proportional morbidity in the area; breed, age and geographic location effects were consistent with current epidemiological understanding. Trypanosomosis, theileriosis, anaplasmosis, and parasitic gastroenteritis were the most common conditions among 713 bovine clinical cases diagnosed prior to introduction of the tool. Thereafter, in 747 bovine clinical cases estimated proportional morbidity of fasciolosis doubled, while theileriosis and parasitic gastroenteritis were diagnosed less commonly and the average number of clinical signs increased from 3.5 to 4.9 per case, with 28% of cases reporting six or more signs compared to 3% beforehand. Anaemia/pallor, weakness and staring coat contributed most to this increase, approximately doubling in number and were recorded in over half of all cases. Finally, although lack of a gold standard hindered objective assessment of whether the tool improved the reliability of diagnosis, informative concordance and misclassification matrices yielded useful insights into its role in the diagnostic process. Conclusions/Significance The diagnostic decision support tool covered the majority of diagnoses made before or after its introduction, leading to a significant increase in the number of clinical signs recorded, suggesting this

  12. Risk-based SMA for Cubesats

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leitner, Jesse

    2016-01-01

    This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.

  13. Usability of implementing a tablet-based decision support and integrated record- keeping (DESIRE) tool in the nurse management of hypertension in rural Kenya.

    PubMed

    Blank, Evan; Tuikong, Nelly; Misoi, Lawrence; Kamano, Jemima; Hutchinson, Claire; Kimaiyo, Sylvester; Fustera, Valentin; Were, Martin; Vedanthan, Rajesh

    2013-01-01

    In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death among individuals over the age of 30. Hypertension, a major risk factor for CVD, contributes significantly to the CVD burden in SSA. In order to address the human resource challenge of managing hypertension in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), task-shifting hypertension care from physicians to nurses has been proposed. To support this task-shifting strategy, the Academic Partnership Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH) has developed an Android tablet-based electronic Decision Support and Integrated Record-Keeping (DESIRE) tool to record patient data and assist with clinical decision-making. We investigated the usability of the DESIRE tool in the setting of nurse management of hypertension in rural western Kenya through the use of "mock patient" encounters and "think aloud" exercises. Fiftyseven critical incidents were identified and twenty-three design changes were suggested. Optimization of the tool has the potential to broadly impact treatment of non-communicable diseases in LMICs by providing a model of electronic decision-support in task shifting.

  14. Invasive Species Forecasting System: A Decision Support Tool for the U.S. Geological Survey: FY 2005 Benchmarking Report v.1.6

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stohlgren, Tom; Schnase, John; Morisette, Jeffrey; Most, Neal; Sheffner, Ed; Hutchinson, Charles; Drake, Sam; Van Leeuwen, Willem; Kaupp, Verne

    2005-01-01

    The National Institute of Invasive Species Science (NIISS), through collaboration with NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), recently began incorporating NASA observations and predictive modeling tools to fulfill its mission. These enhancements, labeled collectively as the Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS), are now in place in the NIISS in their initial state (V1.0). The ISFS is the primary decision support tool of the NIISS for the management and control of invasive species on Department of Interior and adjacent lands. The ISFS is the backbone for a unique information services line-of-business for the NIISS, and it provides the means for delivering advanced decision support capabilities to a wide range of management applications. This report describes the operational characteristics of the ISFS, a decision support tool of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Recent enhancements to the performance of the ISFS, attained through the integration of observations, models, and systems engineering from the NASA are benchmarked; i.e., described quantitatively and evaluated in relation to the performance of the USGS system before incorporation of the NASA enhancements. This report benchmarks Version 1.0 of the ISFS.

  15. Estuarine science and decision-support tools to restore Puget Sound delta and estuarine ecosystems: The Skagit River Delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossman, E. E.; Rosenbauer, R. J.; Takesue, R. K.; Gelfenbaum, G.; Reisenbichler, R.; Paulson, A.; Sexton, N. R.; Labiosa, B.; Beamer, E. M.; Hood, G.; Wyllie-Echeverria, S.

    2006-12-01

    planning, we are integrating a Geographic Information System of land use, ecologic, and hydrodynamic attributes with a hydrodynamic process model to (1) quantitatively estimate land-use impacts on ecologic functions and (2) to provide decision-support tools to help develop and implement effective restoration strategies that will balance socioeconomic demands and ecologic function of the Puget Sound lowlands.

  16. Nottingham Prognostic Index Plus: Validation of a clinical decision making tool in breast cancer in an independent series.

    PubMed

    Green, Andrew R; Soria, Daniele; Stephen, Jacqueline; Powe, Desmond G; Nolan, Christopher C; Kunkler, Ian; Thomas, Jeremy; Kerr, Gillian R; Jack, Wilma; Cameron, David; Piper, Tammy; Ball, Graham R; Garibaldi, Jonathan M; Rakha, Emad A; Bartlett, John Ms; Ellis, Ian O

    2016-01-01

    The Nottingham Prognostic Index Plus (NPI+) is a clinical decision making tool in breast cancer (BC) that aims to provide improved patient outcome stratification superior to the traditional NPI. This study aimed to validate the NPI+ in an independent series of BC. Eight hundred and eighty five primary early stage BC cases from Edinburgh were semi-quantitatively assessed for 10 biomarkers [Estrogen Receptor (ER), Progesterone Receptor (PgR), cytokeratin (CK) 5/6, CK7/8, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), HER2, HER3, HER4, p53, and Mucin 1] using immunohistochemistry and classified into biological classes by fuzzy logic-derived algorithms previously developed in the Nottingham series. Subsequently, NPI+ Prognostic Groups (PGs) were assigned for each class using bespoke NPI-like formulae, previously developed in each NPI+ biological class of the Nottingham series, utilising clinicopathological parameters: number of positive nodes, pathological tumour size, stage, tubule formation, nuclear pleomorphism and mitotic counts. Biological classes and PGs were compared between the Edinburgh and Nottingham series using Cramer's V and their role in patient outcome prediction using Kaplan-Meier curves and tested using Log Rank. The NPI+ biomarker panel classified the Edinburgh series into seven biological classes similar to the Nottingham series (p > 0.01). The biological classes were significantly associated with patient outcome (p < 0.001). PGs were comparable in predicting patient outcome between series in Luminal A, Basal p53 altered, HER2+/ER+ tumours (p > 0.01). The good PGs were similarly validated in Luminal B, Basal p53 normal, HER2+/ER- tumours and the poor PG in the Luminal N class (p > 0.01). Due to small patient numbers assigned to the remaining PGs, Luminal N, Luminal B, Basal p53 normal and HER2+/ER- classes could not be validated. This study demonstrates the reproducibility of NPI+ and confirmed its prognostic value in an independent cohort

  17. Development of a First-of-a-Kind Deterministic Decision-Making Tool for Supervisory Control System

    SciTech Connect

    Cetiner, Sacit M; Kisner, Roger A; Muhlheim, Michael David; Fugate, David L

    2015-07-01

    Decision-making is the process of identifying and choosing alternatives where each alternative offers a different approach or path to move from a given state or condition to a desired state or condition. The generation of consistent decisions requires that a structured, coherent process be defined, immediately leading to a decision-making framework. The overall objective of the generalized framework is for it to be adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision- making modules that can perform a given set of tasks reliably. Risk-informed decision making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The implementation of the probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the proposed supervisory control system was detailed in previous milestone reports. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses variable sensor data (e.g., outlet temperature) and calculates where it is within the challenge state, its trajectory, and margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. Metrics to be evaluated include stability, cost, time to complete (action), power level, etc. The

  18. Does accountability for reasonableness work? A protocol for a mixed methods study using an audit tool to evaluate the decision-making of clinical commissioning groups in England

    PubMed Central

    Kieslich, Katharina; Littlejohns, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) in England are tasked with making difficult decisions on which healthcare services to provide against the background of limited budgets. The question is how to ensure that these decisions are fair and legitimate. Accounts of what constitutes fair and legitimate priority setting in healthcare include Daniels’ and Sabin's accountability for reasonableness (A4R) and Clark's and Weale's framework for the identification of social values. This study combines these accounts and asks whether the decisions of those CCGs that adhere to elements of such accounts are perceived as fairer and more legitimate by key stakeholders. The study addresses the empirical gap arising from a lack of research on whether frameworks such as A4R hold what they promise. It aims to understand the criteria that feature in CCG decision-making. Finally, it examines the usefulness of a decision-making audit tool (DMAT) in identifying the process and content criteria that CCGs apply when making decisions. Methods and analysis The adherence of a sample of CCGs to criteria emerging from theories of fair priority setting will be examined using the DMAT developed by PL. The results will be triangulated with data from semistructured interviews with key stakeholders in the CCG sample to ascertain whether there is a correlation between those CCGs that performed well in the DMAT exercise and those whose decisions are perceived positively by interviewees. Descriptive statistical methods will be used to analyse the DMAT data. A combination of quantitative and qualitative content analysis methods will be used to analyse the interview transcripts. Ethics and dissemination Full ethics approval was received by the King's College London Biomedical Sciences, Dentistry, Medicine and Natural and Mathematical Sciences Research Ethics Subcommittee. The results of the study will be disseminated through publications in peer review journals. PMID:26163034

  19. Data-driven decision-making tools to improve public resource allocation for care and prevention of HIV/AIDS.

    PubMed

    Ryan, Gery W; Bloom, Evan W; Lowsky, David J; Linthicum, Mark T; Juday, Timothy; Rosenblatt, Lisa; Kulkarni, Sonali; Goldman, Dana P; Sayles, Jennifer N

    2014-03-01

    Public health agencies face difficult decisions when allocating scarce resources to control the spread of HIV/AIDS. Decisions are often made with few local empirical data. We demonstrated the use of the robust decision making approach in Los Angeles County, an approach that is data driven and allows decision makers to compare the performance of various intervention strategies across thousands of simulated future scenarios. We found that the prevailing strategy of emphasizing behavioral risk reduction interventions was unlikely to achieve the policy goals of the national HIV/AIDS strategy. Of the alternative strategies we examined, those that invested most heavily in interventions to initiate antiretroviral treatment and support treatment adherence were the most likely to achieve policy objectives. By employing similar methods, other public health agencies can identify robust strategies and invest in interventions more likely to achieve HIV/AIDS policy goals.

  20. MediBoost: a Patient Stratification Tool for Interpretable Decision Making in the Era of Precision Medicine

    PubMed Central

    Valdes, Gilmer; Luna, José Marcio; Eaton, Eric; Simone, Charles B.; Ungar, Lyle H.; Solberg, Timothy D.

    2016-01-01

    Machine learning algorithms that are both interpretable and accurate are essential in applications such as medicine where errors can have a dire consequence. Unfortunately, there is currently a tradeoff between accuracy and interpretability among state-of-the-art methods. Decision trees are interpretable and are therefore used extensively throughout medicine for stratifying patients. Current decision tree algorithms, however, are consistently outperformed in accuracy by other, less-interpretable machine learning models, such as ensemble methods. We present MediBoost, a novel framework for constructing decision trees that retain interpretability while having accuracy similar to ensemble methods, and compare MediBoost’s performance to that of conventional decision trees and ensemble methods on 13 medical classification problems. MediBoost significantly outperformed current decision tree algorithms in 11 out of 13 problems, giving accuracy comparable to ensemble methods. The resulting trees are of the same type as decision trees used throughout clinical practice but have the advantage of improved accuracy. Our algorithm thus gives the best of both worlds: it grows a single, highly interpretable tree that has the high accuracy of ensemble methods. PMID:27901055

  1. MediBoost: a Patient Stratification Tool for Interpretable Decision Making in the Era of Precision Medicine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valdes, Gilmer; Luna, José Marcio; Eaton, Eric; Simone, Charles B.; Ungar, Lyle H.; Solberg, Timothy D.

    2016-11-01

    Machine learning algorithms that are both interpretable and accurate are essential in applications such as medicine where errors can have a dire consequence. Unfortunately, there is currently a tradeoff between accuracy and interpretability among state-of-the-art methods. Decision trees are interpretable and are therefore used extensively throughout medicine for stratifying patients. Current decision tree algorithms, however, are consistently outperformed in accuracy by other, less-interpretable machine learning models, such as ensemble methods. We present MediBoost, a novel framework for constructing decision trees that retain interpretability while having accuracy similar to ensemble methods, and compare MediBoost’s performance to that of conventional decision trees and ensemble methods on 13 medical classification problems. MediBoost significantly outperformed current decision tree algorithms in 11 out of 13 problems, giving accuracy comparable to ensemble methods. The resulting trees are of the same type as decision trees used throughout clinical practice but have the advantage of improved accuracy. Our algorithm thus gives the best of both worlds: it grows a single, highly interpretable tree that has the high accuracy of ensemble methods.

  2. Breast Cancer Screening in the Precision Medicine Era: Risk-Based Screening in a Population-Based Trial.

    PubMed

    Shieh, Yiwey; Eklund, Martin; Madlensky, Lisa; Sawyer, Sarah D; Thompson, Carlie K; Stover Fiscalini, Allison; Ziv, Elad; Van't Veer, Laura J; Esserman, Laura J; Tice, Jeffrey A

    2017-01-01

    Ongoing controversy over the optimal approach to breast cancer screening has led to discordant professional society recommendations, particularly in women age 40 to 49 years. One potential solution is risk-based screening, where decisions around the starting age, stopping age, frequency, and modality of screening are based on individual risk to maximize the early detection of aggressive cancers and minimize the harms of screening through optimal resource utilization. We present a novel approach to risk-based screening that integrates clinical risk factors, breast density, a polygenic risk score representing the cumulative effects of genetic variants, and sequencing for moderate- and high-penetrance germline mutations. We demonstrate how thresholds of absolute risk estimates generated by our prediction tools can be used to stratify women into different screening strategies (biennial mammography, annual mammography, annual mammography with adjunctive magnetic resonance imaging, defer screening at this time) while informing the starting age of screening for women age 40 to 49 years. Our risk thresholds and corresponding screening strategies are based on current evidence but need to be tested in clinical trials. The Women Informed to Screen Depending On Measures of risk (WISDOM) Study, a pragmatic, preference-tolerant randomized controlled trial of annual vs personalized screening, will study our proposed approach. WISDOM will evaluate the efficacy, safety, and acceptability of risk-based screening beginning in the fall of 2016. The adaptive design of this trial allows continued refinement of our risk thresholds as the trial progresses, and we discuss areas where we anticipate emerging evidence will impact our approach.

  3. Risk based analysis: A rational approach to site cleanup

    SciTech Connect

    Arulanatham, R.; So, E.

    1994-12-31

    Soil and groundwater pollution in urban areas often can pose a threat to either human health or water quality or both. This soil and groundwater cleanup can be a very lengthy process and requires significant economic resources. The cleanup levels or requirements required by one agency sometimes do not match that required by the other agency, especially those for soil pollution. The involvement of several agencies at different times during the reclamation process has often diminished the cost-effectiveness of the reclamation efforts. In an attempt to bring some solutions to minimize this kind of problem (which has been experienced by both the authors) the staff of the Alameda County Department of Environmental Health and the Regional Water Quality Control Board, San Francisco Bay Region, has jointly developed some workable guidelines to self-assist the responsible parties in deriving target cleanup goals that are both human health (or other ecological receptor) and water quality protective. The following is a 6-step summary of the methodology to assist the responsible parties in properly managing their pollution problem. These guidelines include: (1) site characterization; (2) initial risk-based screening of contaminants; (3) derivation of health and/or ecological risk-based cleanup goals; (4) derivation of groundwater quality-based cleanup goals; (5) site cleanup goals and site remediation; and (6) risk management decisions.

  4. Risk-Based Ranking Experiences for Cold War Legacy Facilities in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Droppo, James G.

    2003-05-01

    Over the past two decades, a number of government agencies in the United States have faced increasing public scrutiny for their efforts to address the wide range of potential environmental issues related to Cold War legacies. Risk-based ranking was selected as a means of defining the relative importance of issues. Ambitious facility-wide risk-based ranking applications were undertaken. However, although facility-wide risk-based ranking efforts can build invaluable understanding of the potential issues related to Cold War legacies, conducting such efforts is difficult because of the potentially enormous scope and the potentially strong institutional barriers. The U.S. experience is that such efforts are worth undertaking to start building a knowledge base and infrastructure that are based on a thorough understanding of risk. In both the East and the West, the legacy of the Cold War includes a wide range of potential environmental issues associated with large industrial complexes of weapon production facilities. The responsible agencies or ministries are required to make decisions that could benefit greatly from information on the relative importance of these potential issues. Facility-wide risk-based ranking of potential health and environmental issues is one means to help these decision makers. The initial U.S. risk-based ranking applications described in this chapter were “ground-breaking” in that they defined new methodologies and approaches to meet the challenges. Many of these approaches fit the designation of a population-centred risk assessment. These U.S. activities parallel efforts that are just beginning for similar facilities in the countries of the former Soviet Union. As described below, conducting a facility-wide risk-based ranking has special challenges and potential pitfalls. Little guidance exists to conduct major risk-based rankings. For those considering undertaking such efforts, the material contained in this chapter should be useful

  5. Fews-Risk: A step towards risk-based flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachmann, Daniel; Eilander, Dirk; de Leeuw, Annemargreet; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Weerts, Albrecht; de Bruijn, Karin; Beckers, Joost; Boelee, Leonore; Brown, Emma; Hazlewood, Caroline

    2015-04-01

    Operational flood prediction and the assessment of flood risk are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction of discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational flood forecasting. Based on the prediction of these values decisions about specific emergency measures are made within operational flood management. However, the information provided for decision support is restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects of a flood. Information about weak sections within the flood defences, flood prone areas and assets at risk in the protected areas are rarely used in a model-based flood forecasting system. This information is often available for strategic planning, but is not in an appropriate format for operational purposes. The idea of FEWS-Risk is the extension of existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, such as probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. Thus, additional information is provided to the decision makers, such as: • Location, timing and probability of failure of defined sections of the flood defence line; • Flood spreading, extent and hydraulic values in the hinterland caused by an overflow or a breach flow • Impacts and consequences in case of flooding in the protected areas, such as injuries or casualties and/or damages to critical infrastructure or economy. In contrast with purely hydraulic-based operational information, these additional data focus upon decision support for answering crucial questions within an operational flood forecasting framework, such as: • Where should I reinforce my flood defence system? • What type of action can I take to mend a weak spot in my flood defences? • What are the consequences of a breach? • Which areas should I evacuate first? This presentation outlines the additional required workflows towards risk-based flood

  6. A risk-based approach to cost-benefit analysis of software safety activities

    SciTech Connect

    Fortier, S.C. ); Michael, J.B. )

    1993-01-01

    Assumptions about the economics of making a system safe are usually not explicitly stated in industrial and software models of safety-critical systems. These assumptions span a wide spectrum of economic tradeoffs with respect to resources expended to make a system safe. The missing component in these models that is necessary for capturing the effect of economic tradeoffs is risk. A qualitative risk-based software safety model is proposed that combines features of industrial and software systems safety models. The risk-based model provides decision makers with a basis for performing cost-benefit analyses of software safety-related activities.

  7. A risk-based approach to cost-benefit analysis of software safety activities

    SciTech Connect

    Fortier, S.C.; Michael, J.B.

    1993-05-01

    Assumptions about the economics of making a system safe are usually not explicitly stated in industrial and software models of safety-critical systems. These assumptions span a wide spectrum of economic tradeoffs with respect to resources expended to make a system safe. The missing component in these models that is necessary for capturing the effect of economic tradeoffs is risk. A qualitative risk-based software safety model is proposed that combines features of industrial and software systems safety models. The risk-based model provides decision makers with a basis for performing cost-benefit analyses of software safety-related activities.

  8. The Assurance of Learning Tool as Predictor and Criterion in Business School Admissions Decisions: New Use for an Old Standard?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pesta, Bryan J.; Scherer, Robert F.

    2011-01-01

    The Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business incorporates program assessment as an integral part of the accreditation process. Assessment tools created to meet assurance of learning standards, however, must go beyond grades and measure student learning directly. The author shows that an in-house assessment tool predicted student…

  9. WMOST: A tool for assessing cost-benefits of watershed management decisions affecting community resilience under varying climate regimes

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Watershed Management Optimization Support Tool (WMOST v.1) was released by the US Environmental Protection Agency in December 2013 (http://www2.epa.gov/exposure-assessment-models/wmost-10-download-page). The objective of WMOST is to serve as a public-domain screening tool th...

  10. Main development trends and some technical decisions on mining tools equipped with super-hard composite materials inserts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dvornikov, LT; Krestovozdvizhensky, PD; Nikitenko, SM; Korneyev, VA; Korneyev, PA

    2017-02-01

    Directions of a significant increase in effectiveness of rock destruction with tools equipped with super-hard composite material inserts are reviewed and justified. Drilling tool designs with the cutting insert in the form of elliptical Cassinian oval and the asymmetric ring cleaves are suggested. Versions of laboratory stand designs in order to determine the power consumption of rock destruction are developed.

  11. Computeer-based decision support tools for evaluation of actions affecting flow and water quality in the San Joaquin Basin

    SciTech Connect

    Quinn, N.W.T.

    1993-01-01

    This document is a preliminary effort to draw together some of the important simulation models that are available to Reclamation or that have been developed by Reclamation since 1987. This document has also attempted to lay out a framework by which these models might be used both for the purposes for which they were originally intended and to support the analysis of other issues that relate to the hydrology and to salt and water quality management within the San Joaquin Valley. To be successful as components of a larger Decision Support System the models should to be linked together using custom designed interfaces that permit data sharing between models and that are easy to use. Several initiatives are currently underway within Reclamation to develop GIS - based and graphics - based decision support systems to improve the general level of understanding of the models currently in use, to standardize the methodology used in making planning and operations studies and to permit improved data analysis, interpretation and display. The decision support systems should allow greater participation in the planning process, allow the analysis of innovative actions that are currently difficult to study with present models and should lead to better integrated and more comprehensive plans and policy decisions in future years.

  12. Web-based decision support and visualization tools for water quality management in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mullinix, C.; Hearn, P.; Zhang, H.; Aguinaldo, J.

    2009-01-01

    Federal, State, and local water quality managers charged with restoring the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem require tools to maximize the impact of their limited resources. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Environmental Protection Agency's Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) are developing a suite of Web-based tools called the Chesapeake Online Assessment Support Toolkit (COAST). The goal of COAST is to help CBP partners identify geographic areas where restoration activities would have the greatest effect, select the appropriate management strategies, and improve coordination and prioritization among partners. As part of the COAST suite of tools focused on environmental restoration, a water quality management visualization component called the Nutrient Yields Mapper (NYM) tool is being developed by USGS. The NYM tool is a web application that uses watershed yield estimates from USGS SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) attributes model (Schwarz et al., 2006) [6] to allow water quality managers to identify important sources of nitrogen and phosphorous within the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The NYM tool utilizes new open source technologies that have become popular in geospatial web development, including components such as OpenLayers and GeoServer. This paper presents examples of water quality data analysis based on nutrient type, source, yield, and area of interest using the NYM tool for the Chesapeake Bay watershed. In addition, we describe examples of map-based techniques for identifying high and low nutrient yield areas; web map engines; and data visualization and data management techniques.

  13. Accessibility, usability, and usefulness of a Web-based clinical decision support tool to enhance provider-patient communication around Self-management TO Prevent (STOP) Stroke.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Jane A; Godwin, Kyler M; Saleem, Jason J; Russell, Scott; Robinson, Joshua J; Kimmel, Barbara

    2014-12-01

    This article reports redesign strategies identified to create a Web-based user-interface for the Self-management TO Prevent (STOP) Stroke Tool. Members of a Stroke Quality Improvement Network (N = 12) viewed a visualization video of a proposed prototype and provided feedback on implementation barriers/facilitators. Stroke-care providers (N = 10) tested the Web-based prototype in think-aloud sessions of simulated clinic visits. Participants' dialogues were coded into themes. Access to comprehensive information and the automated features/systematized processes were the primary accessibility and usability facilitator themes. The need for training, time to complete the tool, and computer-centric care were identified as possible usability barriers. Patient accountability, reminders for best practice, goal-focused care, and communication/counseling themes indicate that the STOP Stroke Tool supports the paradigm of patient-centered care. The STOP Stroke Tool was found to prompt clinicians on secondary stroke-prevention clinical-practice guidelines, facilitate comprehensive documentation of evidence-based care, and support clinicians in providing patient-centered care through the shared decision-making process that occurred while using the action-planning/goal-setting feature of the tool.

  14. Risk-based targeting: A new approach in environmental protection

    SciTech Connect

    Fox, C.A.

    1995-12-31

    Risk-based targeting has recently emerged as an effective tool to help prioritize efforts to identify and manage geographic areas, chemicals, facilities, and agricultural activities that cause the most environmental degradation. This paper focuses on how the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recently used risk-based targeting to identify and screen Federal, industrial, commercial and municipal facilities which contribute to probable human health (fish consumption advisories and contaminated fish tissue) and aquatic life (contaminated sediments) impacts. Preliminary results identified several hundred potential contributors of problem chemicals to probable impacts within the same river reach in 1991--93. Analysis by industry sector showed that the majority of the facilities identified were publicly owned treatment works (POTWs), in addition to industry organic and inorganic chemical manufacturers, petroleum refineries, and electric services, coatings, engravings, and allied services, among others. Both compliant and non-compliant potentially contributing facilities were identified to some extent in all EPA regions. Additional results identifying possible linkages of other pollutant sources to probable impacts, as well as estimation of potential exposure of these contaminants to minority and/or poverty populations are also presented. Out of these analyses, a number of short and long-term strategies are being developed that EPA may use to reduce loadings of problem contaminants to impacted waterbodies.

  15. Development of a decision support tool for water and resource management using biotic, abiotic, and hydrological assessments of Topock Marsh, Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holmquist-Johnson, Christopher; Hanson, Leanne; Daniels, Joan; Talbert, Colin; Haegele, Jeanette

    2016-05-23

    Topock Marsh is a large wetland adjacent to the Colorado River and the main feature of Havasu National Wildlife Refuge (Havasu NWR) in southern Arizona. In 2010, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and Bureau of Reclamation began a project to improve water management capabilities at Topock Marsh and protect habitats and species. Initial construction required a drawdown, which caused below-average inflows and water depths in 2010–11. U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) scientists collected an assemblage of biotic, abiotic, and hydrologic data from Topock Marsh during the drawdown and immediately after, thus obtaining valuable information needed by FWS.Building upon that work, FORT developed a decision support system (DSS) to better understand ecosystem health and function of Topock Marsh under various hydrologic conditions. The DSS was developed using a spatially explicit geographic information system package of historical data, habitat indices, and analytical tools to synthesize outputs for hydrologic time periods. Deliverables include high-resolution orthorectified imagery of Topock Marsh; a DSS tool that can be used by Havasu NWR to compare habitat availability associated with three hydrologic scenarios (dry, average, wet years); and this final report which details study results. This project, therefore, has addressed critical FWS management questions by integrating ecologic and hydrologic information into a DSS framework. This DSS will assist refuge management to make better informed decisions about refuge operations and better understand the ecological results of those decisions by providing tools to identify the effects of water operations on species-specific habitat and ecological processes. While this approach was developed to help FWS use the best available science to determine more effective water management strategies at Havasu NWR, technologies used in this study could be applied elsewhere within the region.

  16. Development of an Optimal Water Allocation Decision Tool for the Major Crops During the Water Deficit Period in the Southeast U.S.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paudel, Krishna P.; Limaye, Ashutosh; Hatch, Upton; Cruise, James; Musleh, Fuad

    2005-01-01

    We developed a dynamic model to optimize irrigation application in three major crops (corn, cotton and peanuts) grown in the Southeast USA. Water supply amount is generated from an engineering model which is then combined with economic models to find the optimal amount of irrigation water to apply on each crop field during the six critical water deficit weeks in summer. Results indicate that water is applied on the crop with the highest marginal value product of irrigation. Decision making tool such as the one developed here would help farmers and policy makers to find the maximum profitable solution when water shortage is a serious concern.

  17. Risk-based regulation: A utility's perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman, J.R. )

    1993-01-01

    Yankee Atomic Electric Company (YAEC) has supported the operation of several plants under the premise that regulations and corresponding implementation strategies are intended to be [open quotes]risk based.[close quotes] During the past 15 yr, these efforts have changed from essentially qualitative to a blend of qualitative and quantitative. Our observation is that implementation of regulatory requirements has often not addressed the risk significance of the underlying intent of regulations on a proportionate basis. It has caused our resource allocation to be skewed, to the point that our cost-competitiveness has eroded, but more importantly we have missed opportunities for increases in safety.

  18. Developing an Ecosystem Services online Decision Support Tool to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change and Urban Growth in the Santa Cruz Watershed; Where We Live, Work, and Play

    EPA Science Inventory

    Processes through which ecosystems provide goods or benefit people can be referred to as "ecosystems services”, which may be quantified to clarify decision-making, with techniques including cost-benefit analysis. We are developing an online decision support tool, the Santa Cruz W...

  19. Algorithm for decision support as the tool for control system of industries with variable assortment of products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ladaniuk, Anatolii; Ivashchuk, Viacheslav; Kisała, Piotr; Askarova, Nursanat; Sagymbekova, Azhar

    2015-12-01

    Conditions of diversification of enterprise products are involving for changes of higher levels of management hierarchy, so it's leading by tasks correcting and changing schedule for operating of production plans. Ordinary solve by combination of enterprise resource are planning and management execution system often has exclusively statistical content. So, the development of decision support system, that helps to use knowledge about subject for capabilities estimating and order of operation of production object is relevant in this time.

  20. Teaching nurses to provide patient centered evidence-based care through the use of informatics tools that promote safety, quality and effective clinical decisions.

    PubMed

    Norton, Michele; Skiba, Diane J; Bowman, Jeanette

    2006-01-01

    Schools of Nursing face the challenge of providing students with experiences to use evidence-based consumer centric care information tools. To facilitate this challenge, a unique partnership was forged between a school of nursing and a leading clinical information systems corporation. This strategic partnership was created to advance the field of nursing informatics through the sharing of intellectual capital. Through this sharing, the goal is to study how technology can promote patient safety, support evidence-based care and facilitate consumer involvement in health care decisions. This paper describes the design, development and testing of a multimedia product that can be used by schools of nursing. This product can be integrated into a nursing curriculum to promote the use of informatics tools as an integral practice component. The multimedia product embraces the core competencies advocated by the Institute of Medicine's Health Professions Education Report.

  1. Class Evolution Tree: a graphical tool to support decisions on the number of classes in exploratory categorical latent variable modeling for rehabilitation research.

    PubMed

    Kriston, Levente; Melchior, Hanne; Hergert, Anika; Bergelt, Corinna; Watzke, Birgit; Schulz, Holger; von Wolff, Alessa

    2011-06-01

    The aim of our study was to develop a graphical tool that can be used in addition to standard statistical criteria to support decisions on the number of classes in explorative categorical latent variable modeling for rehabilitation research. Data from two rehabilitation research projects were used. In the first study, a latent profile analysis was carried out in patients with cancer receiving an inpatient rehabilitation program to identify prototypical combinations of treatment elements. In the second study, growth mixture modeling was used to identify latent trajectory classes based on weekly symptom severity measurements during inpatient treatment of patients with mental disorders. A graphical tool, the Class Evolution Tree, was developed, and its central components were described. The Class Evolution Tree can be used in addition to statistical criteria to systematically address the issue of number of classes in explorative categorical latent variable modeling.

  2. Increase of Power System Survivability with the Decision Support Tool CRIPS Based on Network Planning and Simulation Program PSS®SINCAL

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwaegerl, Christine; Seifert, Olaf; Buschmann, Robert; Dellwing, Hermann; Geretshuber, Stefan; Leick, Claus

    The increased interconnection and automation of critical infrastructures enlarges the complexity of the dependency structures and - as consequence - the danger of cascading effects, e.g. causing area-wide blackouts in power supply networks that are currently after deregulation operated closer to their limits. New tools or an intelligent combination of existing approaches are required to increase the survivability of critical infrastructures. Within the IRRIIS project the expert system CRIPS was developed based on network simulations realised with PSS®SINCAL, an established tool to support the analysis and planning of electrical power, gas, water or heat networks. CRIPS assesses the current situation in power supply networks analysing the simulation results of the physical network behaviour and recommends corresponding decisions.

  3. Decision-Support Tools that Harmonize People and Nature: Using InVEST Water Models in Innovative Policies in China and Latin America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghile, Y.; Daily, G. C.

    2011-12-01

    In promising a return (of services) on investments in natural capital, the scientific community needs to deliver knowledge and tools to quantify and forecast this return. To help address this challenge, the Natural Capital Project has developed a suite of models for Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST). InVEST helps decision makers visualize the impacts of potential policies - identifying tradeoffs and compatibilities between environmental, economic, and social benefits - by modeling and mapping the delivery, distribution, and economic value of ecosystem services under alternative scenarios. We will describe InVEST water models - for sediment retention, water quality provision, and hydropower production - and their application in major land-use policies in China and Latin America. To meet increasing demand for this family of tools and related approaches, the science of ecosystem service provision must be advanced rapidly.

  4. Guidelines for risk-based prioritization of DOE activities

    SciTech Connect

    1998-04-01

    This standard describes issues that should be considered when comparing, selecting, or implementing risk-based prioritization (RBP) systems. It also discusses characteristics that should be used in evaluating the quality of an RBP system and its associated results. The purpose of this standard is to provide guidance for selecting or developing an RBP system so that when implemented, it will: (a) improve the quality of the RBP systems employed by DOE and its contractors; (b) improve the consistency and comparability of RBP system results; (c) satisfy DOE requests to perform RBP; (d) help ensure that limited resources are used efficiently and effectively; (e) help ensure that characteristics for evaluating RBP systems are met and properly balanced; (f) promote greater understanding, use, and acceptance of RBP systems; (g) promote greater understanding between DOE and its stakeholders and regulators; (h) improve the quality of resource allocation, planning, and scheduling decisions. This standard is applicable to any and all uses of RBP by DOE elements, including cases in which RBP is requested by DOE or is used to help allocate resources among alternatives that compete for resources. Prioritizing alternatives that compete for limited resources encompasses many policy issues that are inherent to an RBP effort. It is the position of this standard that policy issues should be determined by the decision maker(s) requesting the prioritization. For additional information on policy issues, refer to section 10 on Application Guidance for Policy Issues.

  5. Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

    SciTech Connect

    Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

    1996-12-01

    Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an `expert panel.` The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC`s increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the {open_quotes}expert panel{close_quotes} and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate.

  6. Development of a Risk-Based Comparison Methodology of Carbon Capture Technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Thompson, Julie; Leclaire, Rene; Edward, Bryan; Jones, Edward

    2014-06-01

    Given the varying degrees of maturity among existing carbon capture (CC) technology alternatives, an understanding of the inherent technical and financial risk and uncertainty associated with these competing technologies is requisite to the success of carbon capture as a viable solution to the greenhouse gas emission challenge. The availability of tools and capabilities to conduct rigorous, risk–based technology comparisons is thus highly desirable for directing valuable resources toward the technology option(s) with a high return on investment, superior carbon capture performance, and minimum risk. To address this research need, we introduce a novel risk-based technology comparison method supported by an integrated multi-domain risk model set to estimate risks related to technological maturity, technical performance, and profitability. Through a comparison between solid sorbent and liquid solvent systems, we illustrate the feasibility of estimating risk and quantifying uncertainty in a single domain (modular analytical capability) as well as across multiple risk dimensions (coupled analytical capability) for comparison. This method brings technological maturity and performance to bear on profitability projections, and carries risk and uncertainty modeling across domains via inter-model sharing of parameters, distributions, and input/output. The integration of the models facilitates multidimensional technology comparisons within a common probabilistic risk analysis framework. This approach and model set can equip potential technology adopters with the necessary computational capabilities to make risk-informed decisions about CC technology investment. The method and modeling effort can also be extended to other industries where robust tools and analytical capabilities are currently lacking for evaluating nascent technologies.

  7. A Review and Analysis of Remote Sensing Capability for Air Quality Measurements as a Potential Decision Support Tool Conducted by the NASA DEVELOP Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ross, A.; Richards, A.; Keith, K.; Frew, C.; Boseck, J.; Sutton, S.; Watts, C.; Rickman, D.

    2007-01-01

    This project focused on a comprehensive utilization of air quality model products as decision support tools (DST) needed for public health applications. A review of past and future air quality measurement methods and their uncertainty, along with the relationship of air quality to national and global public health, is vital. This project described current and future NASA satellite remote sensing and ground sensing capabilities and the potential for using these sensors to enhance the prediction, prevention, and control of public health effects that result from poor air quality. The qualitative uncertainty of current satellite remotely sensed air quality, the ground-based remotely sensed air quality, the air quality/public health model, and the decision making process is evaluated in this study. Current peer-reviewed literature suggests that remotely sensed air quality parameters correlate well with ground-based sensor data. A satellite remote-sensed and ground-sensed data complement is needed to enhance the models/tools used by policy makers for the protection of national and global public health communities

  8. MED SUV TASK 6.3 Capacity building and interaction with decision makers: Improving volcanic risk communication through volcanic hazard tools evaluation, Campi Flegrei Caldera case study (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nave, Rosella; Isaia, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Cristiani, Chiara

    2016-04-01

    In the communication chain between scientists and decision makers (end users), scientific outputs, as maps, are a fundamental source of information on hazards zoning and the related at risk areas definition. Anyway the relationship between volcanic phenomena, their probability and potential impact can be complex and the geospatial information not easily decoded or understood by not experts even if decision makers. Focusing on volcanic hazard the goal of MED SUV WP6 Task 3 is to improve the communication efficacy of scientific outputs, to contribute in filling the gap between scientists and decision-makers. Campi Flegrei caldera, in Neapolitan area has been chosen as the pilot research area where to apply an evaluation/validation procedure to provide a robust evaluation of the volcanic maps and its validation resulting from end users response. The selected sample involved are decision makers and officials from Campanian Region Civil Protection and municipalities included in Campi Flegrei RED ZONE, the area exposed to risk from to pyroclastic currents hazard. Semi-structured interviews, with a sample of decision makers and civil protection officials have been conducted to acquire both quantitative and qualitative data. The tested maps have been: the official Campi Flegrei Caldera RED ZONE map, three maps produced by overlapping the Red Zone limit on Orthophoto, DTM and Contour map, as well as other maps included a probabilistic one, showing volcanological data used to border the Red Zone. The outcomes' analysis have assessed level of respondents' understanding of content as displayed, and their needs in representing the complex information embedded in volcanic hazard. The final output has been the development of a leaflet as "guidelines" that can support decision makers and officials in understanding volcanic hazard and risk maps, and also in using them as a communication tool in information program for the population at risk. The same evaluation /validation process

  9. WMOST: A tool for assessing cost-benefits of watershed management decisions affecting community resilience under varying climate regimes.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Watershed Management Optimization Support Tool (WMOST v.1) was released by the US Environmental Protection Agency in December 2013(http://www2.epa.gov/exposure-assessment-models/wmost-10-download-page). The objective of WMOST is to serve as a public-domain screening toolthat ...

  10. Development of a Self-Assessment Tool to Facilitate Decision-Making in Choosing a Long Term Care Administration Major

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johs-Artisensi, Jennifer L.; Olson, Douglas M.; Nahm, Abraham Y.

    2016-01-01

    Long term care administrators need a broad base of knowledge, skills, and interests to provide leadership and be successful in managing a fiscally responsible, quality long term care organization. Researchers developed a tool to help students assess whether a long term care administration major is a compatible fit. With input from professionals in…

  11. Emotional engagement with participatory simulations as a tool for learning and decision-support for coupled human-natural systems: Flood hazards and urban development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilligan, J. M.; Corey, B.; Camp, J. V.; John, N. J.; Sengupta, P.

    2015-12-01

    The complex interactions between land use and natural hazards pose serious challenges in education, research, and public policy. Where complex nonlinear interactions produce unintuitive results, interactive computer simulations can be useful tools for education and decision support. Emotions play important roles in cognition and learning, especially where risks are concerned. Interactive simulations have the potential to harness emotional engagement to enhance learning and understanding of risks in coupled human-natural systems. We developed a participatory agent-based simulation of cities at risk of river flooding. Participants play the role of managers of neighboring cities along a flood-prone river and make choices about building flood walls to protect their inhabitants. Simulated agents participate in dynamic real estate markets in which demand for property, and thus values and decisions to build, respond to experience with flooding over time. By reducing high-frequency low-magnitude flooding, flood walls may stimulate development, thus increasing tax revenues but also increasing vulnerability to uncommon floods that overtop the walls. Flood waves are launched stochastically and propagate downstream. Flood walls that restrict overbank flow at one city can increase the amplitude of a flood wave at neighboring cities, both up and downstream. We conducted a pilot experiment with a group of three pre-service teachers. The subjects successfully learned key concepts of risk tradeoffs and unintended consequences that can accompany flood-control measures. We also observed strong emotional responses, including hope, fear, and sense of loss. This emotional engagement with a model of coupled human-natural systems was very different from previous experiments on participatory simulations of purely natural systems for physics pedagogy. We conducted a second session in which the participants were expert engineers. We will present the results of these experiments and the

  12. Understanding Preferences for Treatment After Hypothetical First-Time Anterior Shoulder Dislocation: Surveying an Online Panel Utilizing a Novel Shared Decision-Making Tool

    PubMed Central

    Streufert, Ben; Reed, Shelby D.; Orlando, Lori A.; Taylor, Dean C.; Huber, Joel C.; Mather, Richard C.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Although surgical management of a first-time anterior shoulder dislocation (FTASD) can reduce the risk of recurrent dislocation, other treatment characteristics, costs, and outcomes are important to patients considering treatment options. While patient preferences, such as those elicited by conjoint analysis, have been shown to be important in medical decision-making, the magnitudes or effects of patient preferences in treating an FTASD are unknown. Purpose: To test a novel shared decision-making tool after sustained FTASD. Specifically measured were the following: (1) importance of aspects of operative versus nonoperative treatment, (2) respondents’ agreement with results generated by the tool, (3) willingness to share these results with physicians, and (4) association of results with choice of treatment after FTASD. Study Design: Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A tool was designed and tested using members of Amazon Mechanical Turk, an online panel. The tool included an adaptive conjoint analysis exercise, a method to understand individuals’ perceived importance of the following attributes of treatment: (1) chance of recurrent dislocation, (2) cost, (3) short-term limits on shoulder motion, (4) limits on participation in high-risk activities, and (5) duration of physical therapy. Respondents then chose between operative and nonoperative treatment for hypothetical shoulder dislocation. Results: Overall, 374 of 501 (75%) respondents met the inclusion criteria, of which most were young, active males; one-third reported prior dislocation. From the conjoint analysis, the importance of recurrent dislocation and cost of treatment were the most important attributes. A substantial majority agreed with the tool’s ability to generate representative preferences and indicated that they would share these preferences with their physician. Importance of recurrence proved significantly predictive of respondents’ treatment choices

  13. The second iteration of the Systems Prioritization Method: A systems prioritization and decision-aiding tool for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Volume 3, Analysis for final programmatic recommendations

    SciTech Connect

    Prindle, N.H.; Boak, D.M.; Weiner, R.F.

    1996-05-01

    Systems Prioritization Method (SPM) is a decision-aiding tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the US DOE Carlsbad Area Office (DOE/CAO). This tool provides an analytical basis for programmatic decision making for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). SPM integrates decision-analysis techniques, performance,a nd risk-assessment tools, and advanced information technology. Potential outcomes of proposed activities and combination of activities are used to calculate a probability of demonstrating compliance (PDC) with selected regulations. The results are presented in a decision matrix showing cost, duration, and maximum PDC for all activities in a given cost and duration category. This is the third and final volume in the series which presents the analysis for final programmatic recommendations.

  14. Development of system decision support tools for behavioral trends monitoring of machinery maintenance in a competitive environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adeyeri, Michael Kanisuru; Mpofu, Khumbulani

    2017-01-01

    The article is centred on software system development for manufacturing company that produces polyethylene bags using mostly conventional machines in a competitive world where each business enterprise desires to stand tall. This is meant to assist in gaining market shares, taking maintenance and production decisions by the dynamism and flexibilities embedded in the package as customers' demand varies under the duress of meeting the set goals. The production and machine condition monitoring software (PMCMS) is programmed in C# and designed in such a way to support hardware integration, real-time machine conditions monitoring, which is based on condition maintenance approach, maintenance decision suggestions and suitable production strategies as the demand for products keeps changing in a highly competitive environment. PMCMS works with an embedded device which feeds it with data from the various machines being monitored at the workstation, and the data are read at the base station through transmission via a wireless transceiver and stored in a database. A case study was used in the implementation of the developed system, and the results show that it can monitor the machine's health condition effectively by displaying machines' health status, gives repair suggestions to probable faults, decides strategy for both production methods and maintenance, and, thus, can enhance maintenance performance obviously.

  15. Assessment of alternative land management practices using hydrological simulation and a decision support tool: Arborea agricultural region, Sardinia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cau, P.; Paniconi, C.

    2007-11-01

    Quantifying the impact of land use on water supply and quality is a primary focus of environmental management. In this work we apply a semidistributed hydrological model (SWAT) to predict the impact of different land management practices on water and agricultural chemical yield over a long period of time for a study site situated in the Arborea region of central Sardinia, Italy. The physical processes associated with water movement, crop growth, and nutrient cycling are directly modeled by SWAT. The model simulations are used to identify indicators that reflect critical processes related to the integrity and sustainability of the ecosystem. Specifically we focus on stream quality and quantity indicators associated with anthropogenic and natural sources of pollution. A multicriteria decision support system is then used to develop the analysis matrix where water quality and quantity indicators for the rivers, lagoons, and soil are combined with socio-economic variables. The DSS is used to assess four options involving alternative watersheds designated for intensive agriculture and dairy farming and the use or not of treated wastewater for irrigation. Our analysis suggests that of the four options, the most widely acceptable consists in the transfer of intensive agricultural practices to the larger watershed, which is less vulnerable, in tandem with wastewater reuse, which rates highly due to water scarcity in this region of the Mediterranean. More generally, the work demonstrates how both qualitative and quantitative methods and information can assist decision making in complex settings.

  16. Rapid decision support tool based on novel ecosystem service variables for retrofitting of permeable pavement systems in the presence of trees.

    PubMed

    Scholz, Miklas; Uzomah, Vincent C

    2013-08-01

    The retrofitting of sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) such as permeable pavements is currently undertaken ad hoc using expert experience supported by minimal guidance based predominantly on hard engineering variables. There is a lack of practical decision support tools useful for a rapid assessment of the potential of ecosystem services when retrofitting permeable pavements in urban areas that either feature existing trees or should be planted with trees in the near future. Thus the aim of this paper is to develop an innovative rapid decision support tool based on novel ecosystem service variables for retrofitting of permeable pavement systems close to trees. This unique tool proposes the retrofitting of permeable pavements that obtained the highest ecosystem service score for a specific urban site enhanced by the presence of trees. This approach is based on a novel ecosystem service philosophy adapted to permeable pavements rather than on traditional engineering judgement associated with variables based on quick community and environment assessments. For an example case study area such as Greater Manchester, which was dominated by Sycamore and Common Lime, a comparison with the traditional approach of determining community and environment variables indicates that permeable pavements are generally a preferred SuDS option. Permeable pavements combined with urban trees received relatively high scores, because of their great potential impact in terms of water and air quality improvement, and flood control, respectively. The outcomes of this paper are likely to lead to more combined permeable pavement and tree systems in the urban landscape, which are beneficial for humans and the environment.

  17. Behavioral Perspectives on Home Energy Audits: The Role of Auditors, Labels, Reports, and Audit Tools on Homeowner Decision Making

    SciTech Connect

    Ingle, Aaron; Moezzi, Mithra; Lutzhenhiser, Loren; Hathaway, Zac; Lutzenhiser, Susan; Clock, Joe Van; Peters, Jane; Smith, Rebecca; Heslam, David; Diamond, Richard C.

    2012-07-31

    Our study focused on the perspective of homeowner decision-­making in response to home energy audits, combined with attention to the quality of the recommendations that homeowners receive, as well as the perspectives of some key industry actors on auditing and home energy labels. Unlike a program evaluation, the research was not designed to answer detailed questions about program effectiveness in terms of costs, savings, or process, nor was it designed to provide direct answers to questions of how to get people to do more audits or more retrofits. Rather it “steps back” toward a better understanding of more basic questions about what audits provide and what homeowners seem to want, for the case of one particular program that we expect has parallels to many others.

  18. Tool for Ranking Research Options

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ortiz, James N.; Scott, Kelly; Smith, Harold

    2005-01-01

    Tool for Research Enhancement Decision Support (TREDS) is a computer program developed to assist managers in ranking options for research aboard the International Space Station (ISS). It could likely also be adapted to perform similar decision-support functions in industrial and academic settings. TREDS provides a ranking of the options, based on a quantifiable assessment of all the relevant programmatic decision factors of benefit, cost, and risk. The computation of the benefit for each option is based on a figure of merit (FOM) for ISS research capacity that incorporates both quantitative and qualitative inputs. Qualitative inputs are gathered and partly quantified by use of the time-tested analytical hierarchical process and used to set weighting factors in the FOM corresponding to priorities determined by the cognizant decision maker(s). Then by use of algorithms developed specifically for this application, TREDS adjusts the projected benefit for each option on the basis of levels of technical implementation, cost, and schedule risk. Based partly on Excel spreadsheets, TREDS provides screens for entering cost, benefit, and risk information. Drop-down boxes are provided for entry of qualitative information. TREDS produces graphical output in multiple formats that can be tailored by users.

  19. Development of a resource modelling tool to support decision makers in pandemic influenza preparedness: The AsiaFluCap Simulator

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Health care planning for pandemic influenza is a challenging task which requires predictive models by which the impact of different response strategies can be evaluated. However, current preparedness plans and simulations exercises, as well as freely available simulation models previously made for policy makers, do not explicitly address the availability of health care resources or determine the impact of shortages on public health. Nevertheless, the feasibility of health systems to implement response measures or interventions described in plans and trained in exercises depends on the available resource capacity. As part of the AsiaFluCap project, we developed a comprehensive and flexible resource modelling tool to support public health officials in understanding and preparing for surges in resource demand during future pandemics. Results The AsiaFluCap Simulator is a combination of a resource model containing 28 health care resources and an epidemiological model. The tool was built in MS Excel© and contains a user-friendly interface which allows users to select mild or severe pandemic scenarios, change resource parameters and run simulations for one or multiple regions. Besides epidemiological estimations, the simulator provides indications on resource gaps or surpluses, and the impact of shortages on public health for each selected region. It allows for a comparative analysis of the effects of resource availability and consequences of different strategies of resource use, which can provide guidance on resource prioritising and/or mobilisation. Simulation results are displayed in various tables and graphs, and can also be easily exported to GIS software to create maps for geographical analysis of the distribution of resources. Conclusions The AsiaFluCap Simulator is freely available software (http://www.cdprg.org) which can be used by policy makers, policy advisors, donors and other stakeholders involved in preparedness for providing evidence based and

  20. A multimedia comprehensive informatics system with decision support tools for a multi-site collaboration research of stroke rehabilitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ximing; Documet, Jorge; Garrison, Kathleen A.; Winstein, Carolee J.; Liu, Brent

    2012-02-01

    Stroke is a major cause of adult disability. The Interdisciplinary Comprehensive Arm Rehabilitation Evaluation (I-CARE) clinical trial aims to evaluate a therapy for arm rehabilitation after stroke. A primary outcome measure is correlative analysis between stroke lesion characteristics and standard measures of rehabilitation progress, from data collected at seven research facilities across the country. Sharing and communication of brain imaging and behavioral data is thus a challenge for collaboration. A solution is proposed as a web-based system with tools supporting imaging and informatics related data. In this system, users may upload anonymized brain images through a secure internet connection and the system will sort the imaging data for storage in a centralized database. Users may utilize an annotation tool to mark up images. In addition to imaging informatics, electronic data forms, for example, clinical data forms, are also integrated. Clinical information is processed and stored in the database to enable future data mining related development. Tele-consultation is facilitated through the development of a thin-client image viewing application. For convenience, the system supports access through desktop PC, laptops, and iPAD. Thus, clinicians may enter data directly into the system via iPAD while working with participants in the study. Overall, this comprehensive imaging informatics system enables users to collect, organize and analyze stroke cases efficiently.

  1. Assessment of alternative land management practices using hydrological simulation and a decision support tool: Arborea agricultural region, Sardinia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cau, P.; Paniconi, C.

    2007-04-01

    Quantifying the impact of land use on water supply and quality is a primary focus of environmental management. In this work we apply a semidistributed hydrological model (SWAT) to predict the impact of different land management practices on water and agricultural chemical yield for a study site situated in the Arborea region of central Sardinia, Italy. The physical processes associated with water movement, crop growth, and nutrient cycling are directly modeled by SWAT. The model simulations are used to identify indicators that reflect critical processes related to the integrity and sustainability of the ecosystem. Specifically we focus on stream quality and quantity indicators associated with anthropogenic and natural sources of pollution. A multicriteria decision support system is then used to develop the analysis matrix where water quality and quantity indicators for the rivers, lagoons, and soil are combined with socio-economic variables. The DSS is used to assess four options involving alternative watersheds designated for intensive agriculture and dairy farming and the use or not of treated wastewater for irrigation.

  2. Spatial Bayesian belief networks as a planning decision tool for mapping ecosystem services trade-offs on forested landscapes.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez-Redin, Julen; Luque, Sandra; Poggio, Laura; Smith, Ron; Gimona, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    An integrated methodology, based on linking Bayesian belief networks (BBN) with GIS, is proposed for combining available evidence to help forest managers evaluate implications and trade-offs between forest production and conservation measures to preserve biodiversity in forested habitats. A Bayesian belief network is a probabilistic graphical model that represents variables and their dependencies through specifying probabilistic relationships. In spatially explicit decision problems where it is difficult to choose appropriate combinations of interventions, the proposed integration of a BBN with GIS helped to facilitate shared understanding of the human-landscape relationships, while fostering collective management that can be incorporated into landscape planning processes. Trades-offs become more and more relevant in these landscape contexts where the participation of many and varied stakeholder groups is indispensable. With these challenges in mind, our integrated approach incorporates GIS-based data with expert knowledge to consider two different land use interests - biodiversity value for conservation and timber production potential - with the focus on a complex mountain landscape in the French Alps. The spatial models produced provided different alternatives of suitable sites that can be used by policy makers in order to support conservation priorities while addressing management options. The approach provided provide a common reasoning language among different experts from different backgrounds while helped to identify spatially explicit conflictive areas.

  3. Prognosis of the individual course of disease - steps in developing a decision support tool for Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Daumer, M; Neuhaus, A; Lederer, C; Scholz, M; Wolinsky, JS; Heiderhoff, M

    2007-01-01

    Background Multiple sclerosis is a chronic disease of uncertain aetiology. Variations in its disease course make it difficult to impossible to accurately determine the prognosis of individual patients. The Sylvia Lawry Centre for Multiple Sclerosis Research (SLCMSR) developed an "online analytical processing (OLAP)" tool that takes advantage of extant clinical trials data and allows one to model the near term future course of this chronic disease for an individual patient. Results For a given patient the most similar patients of the SLCMSR database are intelligently selected by a model-based matching algorithm integrated into an OLAP-tool to enable real time, web-based statistical analyses. The underlying database (last update April 2005) contains 1,059 patients derived from 30 placebo arms of controlled clinical trials. Demographic information on the entire database and the portion selected for comparison are displayed. The result of the statistical comparison is provided as a display of the course of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) for individuals in the database with regions of probable progression over time, along with their mean relapse rate. Kaplan-Meier curves for time to sustained progression in the EDSS and time to requirement of constant assistance to walk (EDSS 6) are also displayed. The software-application OLAP anticipates the input MS patient's course on the basis of baseline values and the known course of disease for similar patients who have been followed in clinical trials. Conclusion This simulation could be useful for physicians, researchers and other professionals who counsel patients on therapeutic options. The application can be modified for studying the natural history of other chronic diseases, if and when similar datasets on which the OLAP operates exist. PMID:17488517

  4. Assessing the vulnerability of human and biological communities to changing ecosystem services using a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support tool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Labiosa, William B.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we describe an application of a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support web tool that models and evaluates relative changes in ecosystem services to policy and land management decisions. The Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio (SCWEPM) was designed to provide credible forecasts of responses to ecosystem drivers and stressors and to illustrate the role of land use decisions on spatial and temporal distributions of ecosystem services within a binational (U.S. and Mexico) watershed. We present two SCWEPM sub-models that when analyzed together address bidirectional relationships between social and ecological vulnerability and ecosystem services. The first model employs the Modified Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Index (M-SEVI), which assesses community vulnerability using information from U.S. and Mexico censuses on education, access to resources, migratory status, housing situation, and number of dependents. The second, relating land cover change to biodiversity (provisioning services), models changes in the distribution of terrestrial vertebrate habitat based on multitemporal vegetation and land cover maps, wildlife habitat relationships, and changes in land use/land cover patterns. When assessed concurrently, the models exposed some unexpected relationships between vulnerable communities and ecosystem services provisioning. For instance, the most species-rich habitat type in the watershed, Desert Riparian Forest, increased over time in areas occupied by the most vulnerable populations and declined in areas with less vulnerable populations. This type of information can be used to identify ecological conservation and restoration targets that enhance the livelihoods of people in vulnerable communities and promote biodiversity and ecosystem health.

  5. The clinical decision analysis using decision tree.

    PubMed

    Bae, Jong-Myon

    2014-01-01

    The clinical decision analysis (CDA) has used to overcome complexity and uncertainty in medical problems. The CDA is a tool allowing decision-makers to apply evidence-based medicine to make objective clinical decisions when faced with complex situations. The usefulness and limitation including six steps in conducting CDA were reviewed. The application of CDA results should be done under shared decision with patients' value.

  6. The clinical decision analysis using decision tree

    PubMed Central

    Bae, Jong-Myon

    2014-01-01

    The clinical decision analysis (CDA) has used to overcome complexity and uncertainty in medical problems. The CDA is a tool allowing decision-makers to apply evidence-based medicine to make objective clinical decisions when faced with complex situations. The usefulness and limitation including six steps in conducting CDA were reviewed. The application of CDA results should be done under shared decision with patients’ value. PMID:25358466

  7. The Association Between Use of a Clinical Decision Support Tool and Adherence to Monitoring for Medication-Laboratory Guidelines in the Ambulatory Setting

    PubMed Central

    Lau, B.; Overby, C. L.; Wirtz, H. S.; Devine, E. B.

    2013-01-01

    Summary Background Stage 2 Meaningful Use criteria require the use of clinical decision support systems (CDSS) on high priority health conditions to improve clinical quality measures. Although CDSS hold great promise, implementation has been fraught with challenges, evidence of their impact is mixed, and the optimal method of content delivery is unknown. Objective The authors investigated whether implementation of a simple clinical decision support (CDS) tool was associated with improved prescriber adherence to national medication-laboratory monitoring guidelines for safety (hepatic function, renal function, myalgias/rhabdomyolysis) and intermediate outcomes for antidiabetic (Hemoglobin A1c; HbA1c) and antihyperlipidemic (low density lipoprotein; LDL) medications prescribed within a diabetes registry. Methods This was a retrospective observational study conducted in three phases of CDS implementation (2008–2009): pre-, transition-, and post-Prescriptions evaluated were ordered from an electronic health record within a multispecialty medical group. Adherence was evaluated within and without applying guideline-imposed time constraints. Results Forty-thousand prescriptions were ordered over three timeframes. For hepatic and renal function, the proportion of prescriptions for which labs were monitored at any time increased from 52% to 65% (p<0.001); those that met time guidelines, from 14% to 21% (p<0.001). Only 6% of required labs were drawn to monitor for myalgias/rhabdomyolysis, regardless of timeframe. Over 90% of safety labs were within normal limits. The proportion of labs monitored at any time for LDL increased from 56% to 64% (p<0.001); those that met time guidelines from 11% to 17% (p<0.001). The proportion of labs monitored at any time for HbA1c remained the same (72%); those that met time guidelines decreased from 45% to 41% (p<0.001). Conclusion A simple CDS tool may be associated with improved adherence to guidelines. Efforts are needed to confirm

  8. Assessing the Hydrologic Performance of the EPA's Nonpoint Source Water Quality Assessment Decision Support Tool Using North American Land Data Assimilation System (Products)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S.; Ni-Meister, W.; Toll, D.; Nigro, J.; Guiterrez-Magness, A.; Engman, T.

    2010-01-01

    The accuracy of streamflow predictions in the EPA's BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources) decision support tool is affected by the sparse meteorological data contained in BASINS. The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data with high spatial and temporal resolutions provide an alternative to the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)'s station data. This study assessed the improvement of streamflow prediction of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model contained within BASINS using the NLDAS 118 degree hourly precipitation and evapotranspiration estimates in seven watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay region. Our results demonstrated consistent improvements of daily streamflow predictions in five of the seven watersheds when NLDAS precipitation and evapotranspiration data was incorporated into BASINS. The improvement of using the NLDAS data is significant when watershed's meteorological station is either far away or not in a similar climatic region. When the station is nearby, using the NLDAS data produces similar results. The correlation coefficients of the analyses using the NLDAS data were greater than 0.8, the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) model fit efficiency greater than 0.6, and the error in the water balance was less than 5%. Our analyses also showed that the streamflow improvements were mainly contributed by the NLDAS's precipitation data and that the improvement from using NLDAS's evapotranspiration data was not significant; partially due to the constraints of current BASINS-HSPF settings. However, NLDAS's evapotranspiration data did improve the baseflow prediction. This study demonstrates the NLDAS data has the potential to improve stream flow predictions, thus aid the water quality assessment in the EPA nonpoint water quality assessment decision tool.

  9. An analysis and decision tool to measure cost benefit of newborn screening for severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) and related T-cell lymphopenia.

    PubMed

    Modell, Vicki; Knaus, Megan; Modell, Fred

    2014-10-01

    Severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) is a group of syndromes resulting from genetic defects causing absence in T-cell and B-cell function, leading to serious and life-threatening infections. SCID is often fatal in the first 2 years of life if not identified and properly treated. While additional laboratory methods are being developed, the current T-cell receptor excision circle assay has proven to have outstanding specificity and sensitivity to accurately identify infants with SCID and other T-cell lymphopenia. The Jeffrey Modell Foundation (JMF) has a long history of advocacy and continues to promote newborn screening for SCID to be implemented in the United States and worldwide. Based on reports provided by California, New York, Texas, and Wisconsin on the results of their population based newborn screening programs, the overall incidence of SCID averaged 1:33,000 and T-cell lymphopenia averaged 1:6,600. JMF has developed a working algorithm or "decision tree", validated by peer-reviewed scientific literature, to be used by Public Health Departments and Health Ministries in states, countries, and regions throughout the world. This decision tool allows for local or regional data to be applied to measure the threshold and economic impact of implementing newborn screening for SCID and T-cell lymphopenia.

  10. From drought indicators to impacts: developing improved tools for monitoring and early warning with decision-makers in mind

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hannaford, Jamie; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia; Tanguy, Maliko; Laize, Cedric; Bachmair, Sophie; Tijdeman, Erik; Stahl, Kerstin; Collins, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    of M&EW and future aspirations. Different stakeholders clearly have different goals for M&EW, but there are a number of common themes, including a desire to better understand the links between the outputs of large-scale M&EW systems (rainfall, river flow, etc), localised triggers used by decision-makers during drought episodes, and actual impacts of drought. Secondly, we present analyses designed to test the utility of a wide range of drought indicators for their use in UK applications. We demonstrate the suitability of standardised indicators (like the SPI) for use in the UK, addressing the suitability of statistical distributions and using these indicators for drought severity quantification and for understanding propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought; all of which are currently poorly understood aspects that are vital for future monitoring. We then address the extent to which these indicators can be used to predict drought impacts, focusing on several sectors (water supply, agriculture and ecosystems). These analyses test which indicators perform best at predicting drought impacts, and seek to identify indicator thresholds that trigger impact occurrence. Unsurprisingly, we found that no single indicator best predicts impacts, and results are domain, sector and season specific. However, we reveal important linkages between indicators and impacts that could enhance the design and delivery of monitoring and forecasting information and its uptake by decision-makers concerned with drought.

  11. Using air dispersion modeling as a key tool for reentry decision making following an accidental release of chemical warfare agent

    SciTech Connect

    Lombardi, D.P.; Morris, M.D.; Watson, A.P.

    1993-06-01

    Public Law 99-145 was passed in 1985 to rid the United States of aging stocks of toxic chemical munitions at eight US Army installations. The Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program (CSEPP) was established in 1989 to develop plans for minimizing health and safety risks to the public while carrying out the stockpile destruction. A key element of CSEPP is the development of sampling strategies to aid to making reentry decisions in the unlikely event that an area becomes contaminated from a release of chemical warfare agent. Following such an event, it will be important that monitoring teams sample in a manner that maximizes success in identifying the extent and distribution of agent in a timely and cost-effective manner. These data will be used to prevent access to areas containing toxic concentrations while allowing access to areas where human health is not threatened. The successful development of a sequential sampling plan will depend, in part, on accurately predicting the agent`s deposition pattern over a given area. This paper examines methods in which the US Army`s Personal Computer Program for Chemical Hazard Protection (D2PC) can be modified to provide reasonable deposition predictions for a sequential sampling plan. D2PC, a Gaussian plume air dispersion model, is designed with chemical agent characteristics, release conditions, and meteorological conditions as input. However, the model does not account for effects of terrain and vegetation on the deposition pattern. This paper focuses on the development of a geographic index that modifies the deposition pattern predicted by D2PC to account for these important factors.

  12. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A decision-support tool to assess water availability at ungaged stream locations in Massachusetts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.; Steeves, Peter A.; Brandt, Sara L.; Weiskel, Peter K.; Garabedian, Stephen P.

    2010-01-01

    Federal, State and local water-resource managers require a variety of data and modeling tools to better understand water resources. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a statewide, interactive decision-support tool to meet this need. The decision-support tool, referred to as the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (MA SYE) provides screening-level estimates of the sustainable yield of a basin, defined as the difference between the unregulated streamflow and some user-specified quantity of water that must remain in the stream to support such functions as recreational activities or aquatic habitat. The MA SYE tool was designed, in part, because the quantity of surface water available in a basin is a time-varying quantity subject to competing demands for water. To compute sustainable yield, the MA SYE tool estimates a daily time series of unregulated, daily mean streamflow for a 44-year period of record spanning October 1, 1960, through September 30, 2004. Selected streamflow quantiles from an unregulated, daily flow-duration curve are estimated by solving six regression equations that are a function of physical and climate basin characteristics at an ungaged site on a stream of interest. Streamflow is then interpolated between the estimated quantiles to obtain a continuous daily flow-duration curve. A time series of unregulated daily streamflow subsequently is created by transferring the timing of the daily streamflow at a reference streamgage to the ungaged site by equating exceedence probabilities of contemporaneous flow at the two locations. One of 66 reference streamgages is selected by kriging, a geostatistical method, which is used to map the spatial relation among correlations between the time series of the logarithm of daily streamflows at each reference streamgage and the ungaged site. Estimated unregulated, daily mean streamflows show good agreement with observed

  13. Bounded Error Approximation Algorithms for Risk-Based Intrusion Response

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-17

    AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2015-0324 Bounded Error Approximation Algorithms for Risk-Based Intrusion Response K Subramani West Virginia University Research...2015. 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Bounded Error Approximation Algorithms for Risk-Based Intrusion Response 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA9550-12-1-0199. 5b. GRANT... Algorithms for Risk-Based Intrusion Response DISTRIBUTION A: Distribution approved for public release. Definition 1.7 Given an integer k, an undirected

  14. Evaluation of a Smartphone Decision-Support Tool for Diarrheal Disease Management in a Resource-Limited Setting

    PubMed Central

    Khatun, Selina; Ahmed, Mujaddeed; Kache, Saraswati; Chisti, Mohammod Jobayer; Sarker, Shafiqul Alam; Maples, Stace D.; Pieri, Dane; Vardhan Korrapati, Teja; Sarnquist, Clea; Federspiel, Nancy; Rahman, Muhammad Waliur; Andrews, Jason R.; Rahman, Mahmudur; Nelson, Eric Jorge

    2017-01-01

    The emergence of mobile technology offers new opportunities to improve clinical guideline adherence in resource-limited settings. We conducted a clinical pilot study in rural Bangladesh to evaluate the impact of a smartphone adaptation of the World Health Organization (WHO) diarrheal disease management guidelines, including a modality for age-based weight estimation. Software development was guided by end-user input and evaluated in a resource-limited district and sub-district hospital during the fall 2015 cholera season; both hospitals lacked scales which necessitated weight estimation. The study consisted of a 6 week pre-intervention and 6 week intervention period with a 10-day post-discharge follow-up. Standard of care was maintained throughout the study with the exception that admitting clinicians used the tool during the intervention. Inclusion criteria were patients two months of age and older with uncomplicated diarrheal disease. The primary outcome was adherence to guidelines for prescriptions of intravenous (IV) fluids, antibiotics and zinc. A total of 841 patients were enrolled (325 pre-intervention; 516 intervention). During the intervention, the proportion of prescriptions for IV fluids decreased at the district and sub-district hospitals (both p < 0.001) with risk ratios (RRs) of 0.5 and 0.2, respectively. However, when IV fluids were prescribed, the volume better adhered to recommendations. The proportion of prescriptions for the recommended antibiotic azithromycin increased (p < 0.001 district; p = 0.035 sub-district) with RRs of 6.9 (district) and 1.6 (sub-district) while prescriptions for other antibiotics decreased; zinc adherence increased. Limitations included an absence of a concurrent control group and no independent dehydration assessment during the pre-intervention. Despite limitations, opportunities were identified to improve clinical care, including better assessment, weight estimation, and fluid/ antibiotic selection. These findings

  15. Evaluation of a Smartphone Decision-Support Tool for Diarrheal Disease Management in a Resource-Limited Setting.

    PubMed

    Haque, Farhana; Ball, Robyn L; Khatun, Selina; Ahmed, Mujaddeed; Kache, Saraswati; Chisti, Mohammod Jobayer; Sarker, Shafiqul Alam; Maples, Stace D; Pieri, Dane; Vardhan Korrapati, Teja; Sarnquist, Clea; Federspiel, Nancy; Rahman, Muhammad Waliur; Andrews, Jason R; Rahman, Mahmudur; Nelson, Eric Jorge

    2017-01-01

    The emergence of mobile technology offers new opportunities to improve clinical guideline adherence in resource-limited settings. We conducted a clinical pilot study in rural Bangladesh to evaluate the impact of a smartphone adaptation of the World Health Organization (WHO) diarrheal disease management guidelines, including a modality for age-based weight estimation. Software development was guided by end-user input and evaluated in a resource-limited district and sub-district hospital during the fall 2015 cholera season; both hospitals lacked scales which necessitated weight estimation. The study consisted of a 6 week pre-intervention and 6 week intervention period with a 10-day post-discharge follow-up. Standard of care was maintained throughout the study with the exception that admitting clinicians used the tool during the intervention. Inclusion criteria were patients two months of age and older with uncomplicated diarrheal disease. The primary outcome was adherence to guidelines for prescriptions of intravenous (IV) fluids, antibiotics and zinc. A total of 841 patients were enrolled (325 pre-intervention; 516 intervention). During the intervention, the proportion of prescriptions for IV fluids decreased at the district and sub-district hospitals (both p < 0.001) with risk ratios (RRs) of 0.5 and 0.2, respectively. However, when IV fluids were prescribed, the volume better adhered to recommendations. The proportion of prescriptions for the recommended antibiotic azithromycin increased (p < 0.001 district; p = 0.035 sub-district) with RRs of 6.9 (district) and 1.6 (sub-district) while prescriptions for other antibiotics decreased; zinc adherence increased. Limitations included an absence of a concurrent control group and no independent dehydration assessment during the pre-intervention. Despite limitations, opportunities were identified to improve clinical care, including better assessment, weight estimation, and fluid/ antibiotic selection. These findings

  16. Passenger Rail Security, Planning, and Resilience: Application of Network, Plume, and Economic Simulation Models as Decision Support Tools

    PubMed Central

    Greenberg, Michael; Lioy, Paul; Ozbas, Birnur; Mantell, Nancy; Isukapalli, Sastry; Lahr, Michael; Altiok, Tayfur; Bober, Joseph; Lacy, Clifton; Lowrie, Karen; Mayer, Henry; Rovito, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    We built three simulation models that can assist rail transit planners and operators to evaluate high and low probability rail-centered hazard events that could lead to serious consequences for rail-centered networks and their surrounding regions. Our key objective is to provide these models to users who, through planning with these models, can prevent events or more effectively react to them. The first of the three models is an industrial systems simulation tool that closely replicates rail passenger traffic flows between New York Penn Station and Trenton, New Jersey. Second, we built and used a line source plume model to trace chemical plumes released by a slow-moving freight train that could impact rail passengers, as well as people in surrounding areas. Third, we crafted an economic simulation model that estimates the regional economic consequences of a variety of rail-related hazard events through the year 2020. Each model can work independently of the others. However, used together they help provide a coherent story about what could happen and set the stage for planning that should make rail-centered transport systems more resistant and resilient to hazard events. We highlight the limitations and opportunities presented by using these models individually or in sequence. PMID:23718133

  17. Passenger rail security, planning, and resilience: application of network, plume, and economic simulation models as decision support tools.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Michael; Lioy, Paul; Ozbas, Birnur; Mantell, Nancy; Isukapalli, Sastry; Lahr, Michael; Altiok, Tayfur; Bober, Joseph; Lacy, Clifton; Lowrie, Karen; Mayer, Henry; Rovito, Jennifer

    2013-11-01

    We built three simulation models that can assist rail transit planners and operators to evaluate high and low probability rail-centered hazard events that could lead to serious consequences for rail-centered networks and their surrounding regions. Our key objective is to provide these models to users who, through planning with these models, can prevent events or more effectively react to them. The first of the three models is an industrial systems simulation tool that closely replicates rail passenger traffic flows between New York Penn Station and Trenton, New Jersey. Second, we built and used a line source plume model to trace chemical plumes released by a slow-moving freight train that could impact rail passengers, as well as people in surrounding areas. Third, we crafted an economic simulation model that estimates the regional economic consequences of a variety of rail-related hazard events through the year 2020. Each model can work independently of the others. However, used together they help provide a coherent story about what could happen and set the stage for planning that should make rail-centered transport systems more resistant and resilient to hazard events. We highlight the limitations and opportunities presented by using these models individually or in sequence.

  18. A decision-making tool to determine economic feasibility and break-even prices for artisan cheese operations.

    PubMed

    Durham, Catherine A; Bouma, Andrea; Meunier-Goddik, Lisbeth

    2015-12-01

    Artisan cheese makers lack access to valid economic data to help them evaluate business opportunities and make important business decisions such as determining cheese pricing structure. The objective of this study was to utilize an economic model to evaluate the net present value (NPV), internal rate of return, and payback period for artisan cheese production at different annual production volumes. The model was also used to determine the minimum retail price necessary to ensure positive NPV for 5 different cheese types produced at 4 different production volumes. Milk type, cheese yield, and aging time all affected variable costs. However, aged cheeses required additional investment for aging space (which needs to be larger for longer aging times), as did lower yield cheeses (by requiring larger-volume equipment for pasteurization and milk handling). As the volume of milk required increased, switching from vat pasteurization to high-temperature, short-time pasteurization was necessary for low-yield cheeses before being required for high-yield cheeses, which causes an additional increase in investment costs. Because of these differences, high-moisture, fresh cow milk cheeses can be sold for about half the price of hard, aged goat milk cheeses at the largest production volume or for about two-thirds the price at the lowest production volume examined. For example, for the given model assumptions, at an annual production of 13,608kg of cheese (30,000 lb), a fresh cow milk mozzarella should be sold at a minimum retail price of $27.29/kg ($12.38/lb), whereas a goat milk Gouda needs a minimum retail price of $49.54/kg ($22.47/lb). Artisan cheese makers should carefully evaluate annual production volumes. Although larger production volumes decrease average fixed cost and improve production efficiency, production can reach volumes where it becomes necessary to sell through distributors. Because distributors might pay as little as 35% of retail price, the retail price needs

  19. A pilot study for development of a novel tool for clinical decision making to identify fallers among ophthalmic patients

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Falls in the elderly is a major problem. Although falls have a multifactorial etiology, a commonly cited cause of falls in older people is poor vision. This study proposes a method to discriminate fallers and non-fallers among ophthalmic patients, based on data-mining algorithms applied to health and socio-demographic information. Methods A group of 150 subjects aged 55 years and older, recruited at the Eye Clinic of the Second University of Naples, underwent a baseline ophthalmic examination and a standardized questionnaire, including lifestyles, general health, social engagement and eyesight problems. A subject who reported at least one fall within one year was considered as faller, otherwise as non-faller. Different tree-based data-mining algorithms (i.e., C4.5, Adaboost and Random Forest) were used to develop automatic classifiers and their performances were evaluated by assessing the receiver-operator characteristics curve estimated with the 10-fold-crossvalidation approach. Results The best predictive model, based on Random Forest, enabled to identify fallers with a sensitivity and specificity rate of 72.6% and 77.9%, respectively. The most informative variables were: intraocular pressure, best corrected visual acuity and the answers to the total difficulty score of the Activities of Daily Vision Scale (a questionnaire for the measurement of visual disability). Conclusions The current study confirmed that some ophthalmic features (i.e. cataract surgery, lower intraocular pressure values) could be associated with a lower fall risk among visually impaired subjects. Finally, automatic analysis of a combination of visual function parameters (either self-evaluated either by ophthalmological tests) and other health information, by data-mining algorithms, could be a feasible tool for identifying fallers among ophthalmic patients. PMID:26391731

  20. Use of the ASTM standard for risk-based corrective action to support no further action at petroleum-impacted sites

    SciTech Connect

    Robles, H.; Haffman, B.; Manweiler, D.

    1996-08-01

    In July 1994, the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) published their Emergency Standard Guide for Risk-Based Corrective Action Applied to Petroleum Release Sites (ES 38-94). This document is a decision-making tool designed to help standardize, simplify and expedite the restoration and closure of sites contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons. To achieve these objectives, ES 38-94 directs the response efforts - site assessment and remediation - toward protection of human health and the environment. This is done using a tiered approach that advances from (1) evaluation of site-specific conditions and risks, to (2) screening risk assessment, to (3) sophisticated risk assessment. Sites already in remediation often require sophisticated risk assessment (Tier III) to advance the restoration/closure process. To aid such assessment, ES 38-94 provides the fate-and-transport models and exposure equations best designed for the evaluation of risks from petroleum release sites. This paper explains the ES 38-94 process, describes the application of the risk assessment models at two leaking underground fuel tank sites in California, and offers suggestions for the future use of risk-based corrective action methodology to support requests for no further action.

  1. 76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-01-11

    ... and 225 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation 12 CFR Part 325 Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market... CORPORATION 12 CFR Part 325 RIN 3064-AD70 Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk AGENCY: Office of the... proposal to revise their market risk capital rules to modify their scope to better capture positions...

  2. 12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk. The... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL...

  3. A Framework for Context Sensitive Risk-Based Access Control in Medical Information Systems.

    PubMed

    Choi, Donghee; Kim, Dohoon; Park, Seog

    2015-01-01

    Since the access control environment has changed and the threat of insider information leakage has come to the fore, studies on risk-based access control models that decide access permissions dynamically have been conducted vigorously. Medical information systems should protect sensitive data such as medical information from insider threat and enable dynamic access control depending on the context such as life-threatening emergencies. In this paper, we suggest an approach and framework for context sensitive risk-based access control suitable for medical information systems. This approach categorizes context information, estimating and applying risk through context- and treatment-based permission profiling and specifications by expanding the eXtensible Access Control Markup Language (XACML) to apply risk. The proposed framework supports quick responses to medical situations and prevents unnecessary insider data access through dynamic access authorization decisions in accordance with the severity of the context and treatment.

  4. A web-based spatial decision supporting system (S-DSS) for grapevine quality: the viticultural tool of the SOILCONS-WEB Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manna, Piero; Bonfante, Antonello; Basile, Angelo; Langella, Giuliano; Agrillo, Antonietta; De Mascellis, Roberto; Florindo Mileti, Antonio; Minieri, Luciana; Orefice, Nadia; Terribile, Fabio

    2014-05-01

    The SOILCONSWEB Project aims to create a decision support system operating at the landscape scale (Spatial-DSS) for the protection and the management of soils in both agricultural and environmental issues; it is a cyber-infrastructure built on remote servers operating through the web at www.landconsultingweb.eu. It includes - among others - a series of tools specifically designed to a Viticulture aiming at high quality wines production. The system is realized thanks to a collaboration between the University of Naples Federico II, CNR ISAFoM, Ariespace srl and SeSIRCA-Campania Region within a 5-years LIFE+ project funded by European Community. The system includes tools based on modelling procedures at different level of complexity some of which specifically designed for viticulture issues. One of the implemented models arise from the original desktop based SWAP model (Kroes et al, 2008). It can be run "on the fly" through a very user friendly web-interface. The specific tool, thanks to the model based on the Richard's equation can produce data on vineyard water stress, simulating the soil water balances of the different soil types within an area of interest. Thanks to a specific program developed within the project activities, the Spatial-DSS every day acquires punctual weather data and automatically spatialize them with geostatistical approaches in order to use the data as input for the SPA (Soil Plant Atmosphere ) model running. In particular for defining the upper boundary condition (rainfall and temperatures to estimate ET0 by the Hargraves model). Soil hydraulic properties (47 soil profiles within the study area), also essential for modelling simulation, were measured in laboratory using the Wind's approach or estimated through HYPRES PTF. Water retention and hydraulic conductivity relationships were parameterized according to the van Genuchten-Mualem model; Decision makers (individuals, groups of interests and public bodies) through the DSS can have real

  5. Measurement Decision Theory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rudner, Lawrence M.

    This paper describes and evaluates the use of decision theory as a tool for classifying examinees based on their item response patterns. Decision theory, developed by A. Wald (1947) and now widely used in engineering, agriculture, and computing, provides a simple model for the analysis of categorical data. Measurement decision theory requires only…

  6. Optimizing farm landscape by two decision-support tools for present and future: A case study in a mountainous farm of Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chou, S.; Lin, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Rapid expansion of agricultural land-use has been identified as the main factor degrading biodiversity. Many studies have indicated that habitat quality and connectivity for multiple species can be preserved by applying the systematic conservation planning and software programs for spatial conservation prioritizations are usually used by planners to solve conservation problems for present and future. However, each conservation software program uses different algorithms and may not be suitable or efficient for all case studies. Therefore, in this study we compared the performance of two commonly used decision-support tools, Marxan and Zonation, on identifying priority areas as reserve region for 16 bird species in the mountain area of Taiwan. The priority areas are considered as the results of the tradeoff between bird presence (biological factor) and agricultural products (economic factor). Marxan uses the minimum set approach to identify priority areas for meeting specific targets while Zonation uses the maximum coverage approach to identify priority areas given a fixed budget. Therefore, we design the scenario with the most comparable setting, which selects target-based planning as the removal rule and boundary length penalty option in zonation. The landscape composition and configuration of the simulated priority areas were further evaluated by using landscape metrics and their similarity were examined by using Spearman's rank tests. The results showed that Marxan performed more efficiently while Zonation generated the priority areas in better connectivity. As the selection of conservation programs depends on users objectives and needs for present and future, this study provides useful information on determining suitable and efficient decision-support tools for future bird conservation. Conservation maps for Zonation based on different BLP parameter. The conservation value for Zonation is based on the hierarchical solution output. (a)BLP =1000 (b)BLP =3000 (c

  7. Risk-Based Comparison of Carbon Capture Technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward

    2013-05-01

    In this paper, we describe an integrated probabilistic risk assessment methodological framework and a decision-support tool suite for implementing systematic comparisons of competing carbon capture technologies. Culminating from a collaborative effort among national laboratories under the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), the risk assessment framework and the decision-support tool suite encapsulate three interconnected probabilistic modeling and simulation components. The technology readiness level (TRL) assessment component identifies specific scientific and engineering targets required by each readiness level and applies probabilistic estimation techniques to calculate the likelihood of graded as well as nonlinear advancement in technology maturity. The technical risk assessment component focuses on identifying and quantifying risk contributors, especially stochastic distributions for significant risk contributors, performing scenario-based risk analysis, and integrating with carbon capture process model simulations and optimization. The financial risk component estimates the long-term return on investment based on energy retail pricing, production cost, operating and power replacement cost, plan construction and retrofit expenses, and potential tax relief, expressed probabilistically as the net present value distributions over various forecast horizons.

  8. The second iteration of the Systems Prioritization Method: A systems prioritization and decision-aiding tool for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Volume 2, Summary of technical input and model implementation

    SciTech Connect

    Prindle, N.H.; Mendenhall, F.T.; Trauth, K.; Boak, D.M.; Beyeler, W.; Hora, S.; Rudeen, D.

    1996-05-01

    The Systems Prioritization Method (SPM) is a decision-aiding tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SPM provides an analytical basis for supporting programmatic decisions for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) to meet selected portions of the applicable US EPA long-term performance regulations. The first iteration of SPM (SPM-1), the prototype for SPM< was completed in 1994. It served as a benchmark and a test bed for developing the tools needed for the second iteration of SPM (SPM-2). SPM-2, completed in 1995, is intended for programmatic decision making. This is Volume II of the three-volume final report of the second iteration of the SPM. It describes the technical input and model implementation for SPM-2, and presents the SPM-2 technical baseline and the activities, activity outcomes, outcome probabilities, and the input parameters for SPM-2 analysis.

  9. Qualitative methods in a randomised controlled trial: the role of an integrated qualitative process evaluation in providing evidence to discontinue the intervention in one arm of a trial of a decision support tool

    PubMed Central

    Murtagh, M J; Thomson, R G; May, C R; Rapley, T; Heaven, B R; Graham, R H; Kaner, E F; Stobbart, L; Eccles, M P

    2007-01-01

    Objective To understand participants' experiences and understandings of the interventions in the trial of a computerised decision support tool in patients with atrial fibrillation being considered for anti‐coagulation treatment. Design Qualitative process evaluation carried out alongside the trial: non‐participant observation and semistructured interviews. Participants 30 participants aged >60 years taking part in the trial of a computerised decision support tool. Results Qualitative evidence provided the rationale to undertake a decision to discontinue one arm of the trial on the basis that the intervention in that arm, a standard gamble values elicitation exercise was causing confusion and was unlikely to produce valid data on participant values. Conclusions Qualitative methods used alongside a trial allow an understanding of the process and progress of a trial, and provide evidence to intervene in the trial if necessary, including evidence for the rationale to discontinue an intervention arm of the trial. PMID:17545351

  10. Risk based management of piping systems

    SciTech Connect

    Conley, M.J.; Aller, J.E.; Tallin, A.; Weber, B.J.

    1996-07-01

    The API Piping Inspection Code is the first such Code to require classification of piping based on the consequences of failure, and to use this classification to influence inspection activity. Since this Code was published, progress has been made in the development of tools to improve on this approach by determining not only the consequences of failure, but also the likelihood of failure. ``Risk`` is defined as the product of the consequence and the likelihood. Measuring risk provides the means to formally manage risk by matching the inspection effort (costs) to the benefits of reduced risk. Using such a cost/benefit analysis allows the optimization of inspection budgets while meeting societal demands for reduction of the risk associated with process plant piping. This paper presents an overview of the tools developed to measure risk, and the methods to determine the effects of past and future inspections on the level of risk. The methodology is being developed as an industry-sponsored project under the direction of an API committee. The intent is to develop an API Recommended Practice that will be linked to In-Service Inspection Standards and the emerging Fitness for Service procedures. Actual studies using a similar approach have shown that a very high percentage of the risk due to piping in an operating facility is associated with relatively few pieces of piping. This permits inspection efforts to be focused on those piping systems that will result in the greatest risk reduction.

  11. Site selection for managed aquifer recharge using fuzzy rules: integrating geographical information system (GIS) tools and multi-criteria decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malekmohammadi, Bahram; Ramezani Mehrian, Majid; Jafari, Hamid Reza

    2012-11-01

    One of the most important water-resources management strategies for arid lands is managed aquifer recharge (MAR). In establishing a MAR scheme, site selection is the prime prerequisite that can be assisted by geographic information system (GIS) tools. One of the most important uncertainties in the site-selection process using GIS is finite ranges or intervals resulting from data classification. In order to reduce these uncertainties, a novel method has been developed involving the integration of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), GIS, and a fuzzy inference system (FIS). The Shemil-Ashkara plain in the Hormozgan Province of Iran was selected as the case study; slope, geology, groundwater depth, potential for runoff, land use, and groundwater electrical conductivity have been considered as site-selection factors. By defining fuzzy membership functions for the input layers and the output layer, and by constructing fuzzy rules, a FIS has been developed. Comparison of the results produced by the proposed method and the traditional simple additive weighted (SAW) method shows that the proposed method yields more precise results. In conclusion, fuzzy-set theory can be an effective method to overcome associated uncertainties in classification of geographic information data.

  12. Decision peptide-driven: a free software tool for accurate protein quantification using gel electrophoresis and matrix assisted laser desorption ionization time of flight mass spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Santos, Hugo M; Reboiro-Jato, Miguel; Glez-Peña, Daniel; Nunes-Miranda, J D; Fdez-Riverola, Florentino; Carvallo, R; Capelo, J L

    2010-09-15

    The decision peptide-driven tool implements a software application for assisting the user in a protocol for accurate protein quantification based on the following steps: (1) protein separation through gel electrophoresis; (2) in-gel protein digestion; (3) direct and inverse (18)O-labeling and (4) matrix assisted laser desorption ionization time of flight mass spectrometry, MALDI analysis. The DPD software compares the MALDI results of the direct and inverse (18)O-labeling experiments and quickly identifies those peptides with paralleled loses in different sets of a typical proteomic workflow. Those peptides are used for subsequent accurate protein quantification. The interpretation of the MALDI data from direct and inverse labeling experiments is time-consuming requiring a significant amount of time to do all comparisons manually. The DPD software shortens and simplifies the searching of the peptides that must be used for quantification from a week to just some minutes. To do so, it takes as input several MALDI spectra and aids the researcher in an automatic mode (i) to compare data from direct and inverse (18)O-labeling experiments, calculating the corresponding ratios to determine those peptides with paralleled losses throughout different sets of experiments; and (ii) allow to use those peptides as internal standards for subsequent accurate protein quantification using (18)O-labeling. In this work the DPD software is presented and explained with the quantification of protein carbonic anhydrase.

  13. Use of Clinical Decision Guidance as a New Public Health Tool for the Medical Management of Internal Contamination in Radiological Mass Casualty Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Wiley, Albert L

    2016-09-01

    This review is a discussion of special issues associated with the medical and public health management of persons at risk of internal contamination from radionuclides, following various radiological mass-casualty scenarios, as well as definition, discussion and use of the Clinical Decision Guidance (CDG) in such scenarios. Specific medical countermeasures are available for reducing the internal radiation dose and the subsequent stochastic and deterministic risks to persons internally contaminated with radionuclides from nuclear power plant, fuel processing and nuclear weapon accidents/incidents. There is a public health need for rapidly identifying and quantifying the 'source term' of such radiation exposures and assessment of the associated committed doses, so that appropriate medical countermeasure(s) can be given as soon as possible. The CDG, which was initially defined in NCRP-161, was specifically developed to be a new public health tool for facilitating the integration of local community healthcare professionals into the general medical, mass casualty, triage and treatment response of internally contaminated populations.

  14. Risk-based zoning for urbanizing floodplains.

    PubMed

    Porse, Erik

    2014-01-01

    Urban floodplain development brings economic benefits and enhanced flood risks. Rapidly growing cities must often balance the economic benefits and increased risks of floodplain settlement. Planning can provide multiple flood mitigation and environmental benefits by combining traditional structural measures such as levees, increasingly popular landscape and design features (green infrastructure), and non-structural measures such as zoning. Flexibility in both structural and non-structural options, including zoning procedures, can reduce flood risks. This paper presents a linear programming formulation to assess cost-effective urban floodplain development decisions that consider benefits and costs of development along with expected flood damages. It uses a probabilistic approach to identify combinations of land-use allocations (residential and commercial development, flood channels, distributed runoff management) and zoning regulations (development zones in channel) to maximize benefits. The model is applied to a floodplain planning analysis for an urbanizing region in the Baja Sur peninsula of Mexico. The analysis demonstrates how (1) economic benefits drive floodplain development, (2) flexible zoning can improve economic returns, and (3) cities can use landscapes, enhanced by technology and design, to manage floods. The framework can incorporate additional green infrastructure benefits, and bridges typical disciplinary gaps for planning and engineering.

  15. Game theory and risk-based leveed river system planning with noncooperation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, Rui; Lund, Jay R.; Madani, Kaveh

    2016-01-01

    Optimal risk-based levee designs are usually developed for economic efficiency. However, in river systems with multiple levees, the planning and maintenance of different levees are controlled by different agencies or groups. For example, along many rivers, levees on opposite riverbanks constitute a simple leveed river system with each levee designed and controlled separately. Collaborative planning of the two levees can be economically optimal for the whole system. Independent and self-interested landholders on opposite riversides often are willing to separately determine their individual optimal levee plans, resulting in a less efficient leveed river system from an overall society-wide perspective (the tragedy of commons). We apply game theory to simple leveed river system planning where landholders on each riverside independently determine their optimal risk-based levee plans. Outcomes from noncooperative games are analyzed and compared with the overall economically optimal outcome, which minimizes net flood cost system-wide. The system-wide economically optimal solution generally transfers residual flood risk to the lower-valued side of the river, but is often impractical without compensating for flood risk transfer to improve outcomes for all individuals involved. Such compensation can be determined and implemented with landholders' agreements on collaboration to develop an economically optimal plan. By examining iterative multiple-shot noncooperative games with reversible and irreversible decisions, the costs of myopia for the future in making levee planning decisions show the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems to improve decision-making.

  16. Integrating Wind Profiling Radars and Radiosonde Observations with Model Point Data to Develop a Decision Support Tool to Assess Upper-Level Winds for Space Launch

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Flinn, Clay

    2013-01-01

    -hour forecasts against the observations to determine which is the best performing model and then overlay the model forecasts on time-matched observations during the launch countdown to further assess the model performance and forecasts. This paper will demonstrate integration of observed and predicted atmospheric conditions into a decision support tool and demonstrate how the GUI is implemented in operations.

  17. Accounting for failure: risk-based regulation and the problems of ensuring healthcare quality in the NHS.

    PubMed

    Beaussier, Anne-Laure; Demeritt, David; Griffiths, Alex; Rothstein, Henry

    2016-05-18

    In this paper, we examine why risk-based policy instruments have failed to improve the proportionality, effectiveness, and legitimacy of healthcare quality regulation in the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Rather than trying to prevent all possible harms, risk-based approaches promise to rationalise and manage the inevitable limits of what regulation can hope to achieve by focusing regulatory standard-setting and enforcement activity on the highest priority risks, as determined through formal assessments of their probability and consequences. As such, risk-based approaches have been enthusiastically adopted by healthcare quality regulators over the last decade. However, by drawing on historical policy analysis and in-depth interviews with 15 high-level UK informants in 2013-2015, we identify a series of practical problems in using risk-based policy instruments for defining, assessing, and ensuring compliance with healthcare quality standards. Based on our analysis, we go on to consider why, despite a succession of failures, healthcare regulators remain committed to developing and using risk-based approaches. We conclude by identifying several preconditions for successful risk-based regulation: goals must be clear and trade-offs between them amenable to agreement; regulators must be able to reliably assess the probability and consequences of adverse outcomes; regulators must have a range of enforcement tools that can be deployed in proportion to risk; and there must be political tolerance for adverse outcomes.

  18. Accounting for failure: risk-based regulation and the problems of ensuring healthcare quality in the NHS

    PubMed Central

    Beaussier, Anne-Laure; Demeritt, David; Griffiths, Alex; Rothstein, Henry

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we examine why risk-based policy instruments have failed to improve the proportionality, effectiveness, and legitimacy of healthcare quality regulation in the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Rather than trying to prevent all possible harms, risk-based approaches promise to rationalise and manage the inevitable limits of what regulation can hope to achieve by focusing regulatory standard-setting and enforcement activity on the highest priority risks, as determined through formal assessments of their probability and consequences. As such, risk-based approaches have been enthusiastically adopted by healthcare quality regulators over the last decade. However, by drawing on historical policy analysis and in-depth interviews with 15 high-level UK informants in 2013–2015, we identify a series of practical problems in using risk-based policy instruments for defining, assessing, and ensuring compliance with healthcare quality standards. Based on our analysis, we go on to consider why, despite a succession of failures, healthcare regulators remain committed to developing and using risk-based approaches. We conclude by identifying several preconditions for successful risk-based regulation: goals must be clear and trade-offs between them amenable to agreement; regulators must be able to reliably assess the probability and consequences of adverse outcomes; regulators must have a range of enforcement tools that can be deployed in proportion to risk; and there must be political tolerance for adverse outcomes. PMID:27499677

  19. Remote Assessment of Forest Ecosystem Stress (RAFES): Development of a Real Time Decision Support Tool for the Eastern U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clinton, B.; Vose, J.; Novick, K.; Liu, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Drier and warmer conditions predicted with climate change models are likely to significantly impact forest ecosystems over the next several decades. The U.S. has experienced significant droughts over the past several years that have increased the susceptibility of forests to insect outbreaks, disease, and wildfire. Weather data collected with traditional approaches provide an indirect measure of drought or temperature stress; however, the significance of short-term or prolonged climate-related stress varies considerably across the landscape as topography, elevations, edaphic condition and antecedent conditions vary. This limits the capacity of land managers to anticipate and initiate management activities that could offset the impacts of climate-related forest stress. Decision support tools are needed that allow fine scale monitoring of stress conditions in forest ecosystems in real time to help land managers evaluate response strategies. To assist land managers in managing the impacts of climate change, we are developing a stress monitoring and decision support system across multiple sites in the eastern U.S. that (1) provides remote data capture of environmental parameters that quantify climate-related forest stress, (2) links remotely captured data with physiologically-based indices of tree water stress, and (3) provides a PC-based analytical tool for land managers to monitor and assess the severity of climate-related stress. Currently the network represents southern coastal plain pine plantation, Atlantic coastal flatwoods mixed pine-hardwood, southern piedmont upland mixed pine-hardwood, southern Appalachian dry ridge and mesic riparian, southern Arkansas managed mature pine, and northern Minnesota mature aspen. The strategy for selecting additional sites for the network will be a focus on at-risk ecosystems deemed particularly vulnerable to the affects of predicted climate change such as those in ecotonal transition regions, or those at the fringes of their

  20. Application of Delphi-AHP methods to select the priorities of WEEE for recycling in a waste management decision-making tool.

    PubMed

    Kim, Mincheol; Jang, Yong-Chul; Lee, Seunguk

    2013-10-15

    study is an example of how Delphi-AHP modeling can be used as a decision-making process tool in WEEE management.

  1. China PEACE risk estimation tool for in-hospital death from acute myocardial infarction: an early risk classification tree for decisions about fibrinolytic therapy

    PubMed Central

    Li, Xi; Li, Jing; Masoudi, Frederick A; Spertus, John A; Lin, Zhenqiu; Krumholz, Harlan M; Jiang, Lixin

    2016-01-01

    Objectives As the predominant approach to acute reperfusion for ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in many countries, fibrinolytic therapy provides a relative risk reduction for death of ∼16% across the range of baseline risk. For patients with low baseline mortality risk, fibrinolytic therapy may therefore provide little benefit, which may be offset by the risk of major bleeding. We aimed to construct a tool to determine if it is possible to identify a low-risk group among fibrinolytic therapy-eligible patients. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting The China Patient-centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events (PEACE) study includes a nationally representative retrospective sample of patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in 162 hospitals. Participants 3741 patients with STEMI who were fibrinolytic-eligible but did not receive reperfusion therapy. Main outcome measures In-hospital mortality, which was defined as a composite of death occurring within hospitalisation or withdrawal from treatment due to a terminal status at discharge. Results In the study cohort, the in-hospital mortality was 14.7%. In the derivation cohort and the validation cohort, the combination of systolic blood pressure (≥100 mm Hg), age (<60 years old) and gender (male) identified one-fifth of the cohort with an average mortality rate of <3.0%. Half of this low risk group—those with non-anterior AMI—had an average in-hospital death risk of 1.5%. Conclusions Nearly, one in five patients with STEMI who are eligible for fibrinolytic therapy are at a low risk for in-hospital death. Three simple factors available at the time of presentation can identify these individuals and support decision-making about the use of fibrinolytic therapy. Trial registration number NCT01624883. PMID:27798032

  2. Final Technical Report for Contract No. DE-EE0006332, "Integrated Simulation Development and Decision Support Tool-Set for Utility Market and Distributed Solar Power Generation"

    SciTech Connect

    Cormier, Dallas; Edra, Sherwin; Espinoza, Michael; Daye, Tony; Kostylev, Vladimir; Pavlovski, Alexandre; Jelen, Deborah

    2014-12-29

    This project will enable utilities to develop long-term strategic plans that integrate high levels of renewable energy generation, and to better plan power system operations under high renewable penetration. The program developed forecast data streams for decision support and effective integration of centralized and distributed solar power generation in utility operations. This toolset focused on real time simulation of distributed power generation within utility grids with the emphasis on potential applications in day ahead (market) and real time (reliability) utility operations. The project team developed and demonstrated methodologies for quantifying the impact of distributed solar generation on core utility operations, identified protocols for internal data communication requirements, and worked with utility personnel to adapt the new distributed generation (DG) forecasts seamlessly within existing Load and Generation procedures through a sophisticated DMS. This project supported the objectives of the SunShot Initiative and SUNRISE by enabling core utility operations to enhance their simulation capability to analyze and prepare for the impacts of high penetrations of solar on the power grid. The impact of high penetration solar PV on utility operations is not only limited to control centers, but across many core operations. Benefits of an enhanced DMS using state-of-the-art solar forecast data were demonstrated within this project and have had an immediate direct operational cost savings for Energy Marketing for Day Ahead generation commitments, Real Time Operations, Load Forecasting (at an aggregate system level for Day Ahead), Demand Response, Long term Planning (asset management), Distribution Operations, and core ancillary services as required for balancing and reliability. This provided power system operators with the necessary tools and processes to operate the grid in a reliable manner under high renewable penetration.

  3. Evidence-based decision-making in infectious diseases epidemiology, prevention and control: matching research questions to study designs and quality appraisal tools

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The Project on a Framework for Rating Evidence in Public Health (PRECEPT) was initiated and is being funded by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) to define a methodology for evaluating and grading evidence and strength of recommendations in the field of public health, with emphasis on infectious disease epidemiology, prevention and control. One of the first steps was to review existing quality appraisal tools (QATs) for individual research studies of various designs relevant to this area, using a question-based approach. Methods Through team discussions and expert consultations, we identified 20 relevant types of public health questions, which were grouped into six domains, i.e. characteristics of the pathogen, burden of disease, diagnosis, risk factors, intervention, and implementation of intervention. Previously published systematic reviews were used and supplemented by expert consultation to identify suitable QATs. Finally, a matrix was constructed for matching questions to study designs suitable to address them and respective QATs. Key features of each of the included QATs were then analyzed, in particular in respect to its intended use, types of questions and answers, presence/absence of a quality score, and if a validation was performed. Results In total we identified 21 QATs and 26 study designs, and matched them. Four QATs were suitable for experimental quantitative study designs, eleven for observational quantitative studies, two for qualitative studies, three for economic studies, one for diagnostic test accuracy studies, and one for animal studies. Included QATs consisted of six to 28 items. Six of the QATs had a summary quality score. Fourteen QATs had undergone at least one validation procedure. Conclusions The results of this methodological study can be used as an inventory of potentially relevant questions, appropriate study designs and QATs for researchers and authorities engaged with evidence-based decision

  4. Achievements of risk-based produced water management on the Norwegian continental shelf (2002-2008).

    PubMed

    Smit, Mathijs G D; Frost, Tone K; Johnsen, Ståle

    2011-10-01

    In 1996, the Norwegian government issued a White Paper requiring the Norwegian oil industry to reach the goal of "zero discharge" for the marine environment by 2005. To achieve this goal, the Norwegian oil and gas industry initiated the Zero Discharge Programme for discharges of produced formation water from the hydrocarbon-containing reservoir, in close communication with regulators. The environmental impact factor (EIF), a risk-based management tool, was developed by the industry to quantify and document the environmental risks from produced water discharges. The EIF represents a volume of recipient water containing concentrations of one or more substances to a level exceeding a generic threshold for ecotoxicological effects. In addition, this tool facilitates the identification and selection of cost-effective risk mitigation measures. The EIF tool has been used by all operators on the Norwegian continental shelf since 2002 to report progress toward the goal of "zero discharge," interpreted as "zero harmful discharges," to the regulators. Even though produced water volumes have increased by approximately 30% between 2002 and 2008 on the Norwegian continental shelf, the total environmental risk from produced water discharges expressed by the summed EIF for all installations has been reduced by approximately 55%. The total amount of oil discharged to the sea has been reduced by 18% over the period 2000 to 2006. The experience from the Zero Discharge Programme shows that a risk-based approach is an excellent working tool to reduce discharges of potential harmful substances from offshore oil and gas installations.

  5. Regional Variability of Stream Responses to Urbanization: Implications for Risk-Based Assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bledsoe, B. P.; Dust, D. W.; Hawley, R. J.

    2007-12-01

    Predictive scientific assessments of the geomorphic consequences of urbanization must be calibrated to the regional hydroclimatological, geologic, and historical context in which streams occur. We present examples of context-specific stream responses to hydromodification, and a general framework for risk-based modeling and scientific assessment of hydrologic-geomorphic-ecologic linkages in urbanizing watersheds. The framework involves: 1) a priori stratification of a region's streams based on flow regime, geomorphic context and susceptibility to changes in water, sediment, and wood regimes, 2) field surveys across a gradient of urban influence, 3) coupling long term hydrologic simulation with geomorphic analysis to quantify key hydrogeomorphic metrics, and 4) using probabilistic modeling to identify regional linkages between hydrogeomorphic descriptors and decision endpoints of primary interest to stakeholders and decision-makers.

  6. A Risk-Based Strategy for Evaluating Mitigation Options for Process-Formed Compounds in Food

    PubMed Central

    Brorby, Gregory P.; Krishan, Mansi

    2016-01-01

    Processing (eg, cooking, grinding, drying) has changed the composition of food throughout the course of human history; however, awareness of process-formed compounds, and the potential need to mitigate exposure to those compounds, is a relatively recent phenomenon. In May 2015, the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America) Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety held a workshop on the risk-based process for mitigation of process-formed compounds. This workshop aimed to gain alignment from academia, government, and industry on a risk-based process for proactively assessing the need for and benefit of mitigation of process-formed compounds, including criteria to objectively assess the impact of mitigation as well as research needed to support this process. Workshop participants provided real-time feedback on a draft framework in the form of a decision tree developed by the ILSI North America Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety to a panel of experts, and they discussed the importance of communicating the value of such a process to the larger scientific community and, ultimately, the public. The outcome of the workshop was a decision tree that can be used by the scientific community and could form the basis of a global approach to assessing the risks associated with mitigation of process-formed compounds. PMID:27102178

  7. Probabilistic Anthrax Risk Assessment Tool v. 1.0

    SciTech Connect

    Knowlton, Robert; Hubbard, Josh

    2016-07-14

    PARAT is a human health risk assessment tool for quantifying the uncertainty associated with inhalational exposures to Bacillus anthracis (Ba), which is the causative agent for contracting anthrax. The tool has a unique set of aerosol transport algorithms to account for indoor-outdoor deposition, re-aerosolization, building infiltration/exfiltration, and ventilation system effects, all of which are coded to preserve mass. PARAT is currently implemented within a Microsoft Excel application along with the Crystal Ball third-party add-on software that provides a Monte Carlo simulation technique for quantifying uncertainty in model predictions. The tool predicts both air and surface concentrations, as well as the fraction of the population that would contract a lethal dose from exposure to Ba. The tool can be used by decision makers to support Preliminary Remediaiton Goals (PRGs) to guide sampling and decontamination decisions after a release of Ba. Currently the de facto standard for recovery from a Ba release is a sampling protocol whereby all of the surface samples sent to a laboratory have to meet the requirement of “no culturable growth” on the media. This could lead to some very costly cleanups, as was evidenced following the 2001 anthrax letter attack responses. So PARAT may provide decision makers and risk assessors the ability to negotiate risk-based endpoints for the recovery process.

  8. Innovative Environmental Protection Tools

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Local decision makers and citizens can make use of EPA tools for interacting with and learning about their local environments with tools that include green apps, My Environment, the National Stormwater Calculator, EPEAT, and EnvirFacts.

  9. The second iteration of the Systems Prioritization Method: A systems prioritization and decision-aiding tool for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Volume 1, Synopsis of method and results

    SciTech Connect

    Prindle, N.H.; Mendenhall, F.T.; Boak, D.M.

    1996-05-01

    In March 1994, the US Department of Energy Carlsbad Area Office (DOE/CAO) embarked on an effort to design and implement a performance- based decision-aiding tool to provide an analytical basis for planning, prioritizing, and selecting programmatic options for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). This tool, called Systems Prioritization Method (SPM) defines the most viable combinations of scientific investigations, engineered alternatives (EAs), and waste acceptance criteria (WAC) for supporting the final WIPP compliance application. The scope of SPM is restricted to selected portions of applicable Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) long-term performance regulations. SPM calculates the probabilities of certain sets of activities demonstrating compliance with various regulations. SPM provides results in the form of a decision matrix to identify cost-effective programmatic paths with a high probability of successfully demonstrating compliance.

  10. Early decision framework for integrating sustainable risk management for complex remediation sites: Drivers, barriers, and performance metrics.

    PubMed

    Harclerode, Melissa A; Macbeth, Tamzen W; Miller, Michael E; Gurr, Christopher J; Myers, Teri S

    2016-12-15

    As the environmental remediation industry matures, remaining sites often have significant underlying technical challenges and financial constraints. More often than not, significant remediation efforts at these "complex" sites have not achieved stringent, promulgated cleanup goals. Decisions then have to be made about whether and how to commit additional resources towards achieving those goals, which are often not achievable nor required to protect receptors. Guidance on cleanup approaches focused on evaluating and managing site-specific conditions and risks, rather than uniformly meeting contaminant cleanup criteria in all media, is available to aid in this decision. Although these risk-based cleanup approaches, such as alternative endpoints and adaptive management strategies, have been developed, they are under-utilized due to environmental, socio-economic, and risk perception barriers. Also, these approaches are usually implemented late in the project life cycle after unsuccessful remedial attempts to achieve stringent cleanup criteria. In this article, we address these barriers by developing an early decision framework to identify if site characteristics support sustainable risk management, and develop performance metrics and tools to evaluate and implement successful risk-based cleanup approaches. In addition, we address uncertainty and risk perception challenges by aligning risk-based cleanup approaches with the concepts of risk management and sustainable remediation. This approach was developed in the context of lessons learned from implementing remediation at complex sites, but as a framework can, and should, be applied to all sites undergoing remediation.

  11. Development and use of risk-based inspection guides

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, J.H.; Fresco, A.; Higgins, J.; Usher, J.; Long, S.M.

    1989-06-01

    Risk-based system inspection guides, for nuclear power plants which have been subjected to a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), have been developed to provide guidance to NRC inspectors in prioritizing their inspection activities. Systems are prioritized, and then dominant component failure modes and human errors within those systems are identified for the above-stated purposes. Examples of applications to specific types of NRC inspection activities are also presented. Thus, the report provides guidance for both the development and use of risk-based system inspection guides. Work is proceeding to develop a method methodology for risk-based guidance for nuclear power plants not subject to a PRA. 18 refs., 1 fig.

  12. Risk-based analyses in support of California hazardous site remediation

    SciTech Connect

    Ringland, J.T.

    1995-08-01

    The California Environmental Enterprise (CEE) is a joint program of the Department of Energy (DOE), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories. Its goal is to make DOE laboratory expertise accessible to hazardous site cleanups in the state This support might involve working directly with parties responsible for individual cleanups or it might involve working with the California Environmental Protection Agency to develop tools that would be applicable across a broad range of sites. As part of its initial year`s activities, the CEE supported a review to examine where laboratory risk and risk-based systems analysis capabilities might be most effectively applied. To this end, this study draws the following observations. The labs have a clear role in analyses supporting the demonstration and transfer of laboratory characterization or remediation technologies. The labs may have opportunities in developing broadly applicable analysis tools and computer codes for problems such as site characterization or efficient management of resources. Analysis at individual sites, separate from supporting lab technologies or prototyping general tools, may be appropriate only in limited circumstances. In any of these roles, the labs` capabilities extend beyond health risk assessment to the broader areas of risk management and risk-based systems analysis.

  13. Value of Information and Prospect theory as tools to involve decision-makers in water-related design, operation and planning of water systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfonso, Leonardo

    2013-04-01

    The role of decision-makers is to take the outputs from hydrological and hydraulic analyses and, in some extent, use them as inputs to make decisions that are related to planning, design and operation of water systems. However, the use of these technical analyses is frequently limited, since there are other non-hydrological issues that must be considered, that may end up in very different solutions than those envisaged by the purely technical ones. A possibility to account for the nature of the human decisions under uncertainty is by exploring the use of concepts from decision theory and behavioural economics, such as Value of Information and Prospect Theory and embed them into the methodologies we use in the hydrology practice. Three examples are presented to illustrate these multidisciplinary interactions. The first one, for monitoring network design, uses Value of Information within a methodology to locate water level stations in a complex canal of networks in the Netherlands. The second example, for operation, shows how the Value of Information concept can be used to formulate alternative methods to evaluate flood risk according to the set of options available for decision-making during a flood event. The third example, for planning, uses Prospect Theory concepts to understand how the "losses hurt more than gains feel good" effect can determine the final decision of urbanise or not a flood-prone area. It is demonstrated that decision theory and behavioural economic principles are promising to evaluate the complex decision-making process in water-related issues.

  14. 78 FR 76521 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-12-18

    ... RIN 7100 AD-98 Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk AGENCY: Board of Governors of the Federal...) is adopting a final rule that revises its market risk capital rule (market risk rule) to address... Cooperation and Development (OECD), which are referenced in the Board's market risk rule; to clarify...

  15. 78 FR 43829 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-07-22

    ... CFR Parts 208 and 225 RIN 7100 AD-98 Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk AGENCY: Board of... Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Board) proposes to revise its market risk capital rule (market risk... Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which are referenced in the Board's market...

  16. 12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... credit risk capital requirement, its market risk capital requirement, and its operations risk capital... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT...

  17. 13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk... Oversight. SBA supervises, examines, and regulates, and enforces laws against, SBA Supervised Lenders...

  18. Risk-Based Educational Accountability in Dutch Primary Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Timmermans, A. C.; de Wolf, I. F.; Bosker, R. J.; Doolaard, S.

    2015-01-01

    A recent development in educational accountability is a risk-based approach, in which intensity and frequency of school inspections vary across schools to make educational accountability more efficient and effective by enabling inspectorates to focus on organizations at risk. Characteristics relevant in predicting which schools are "at risk…

  19. FishVis, A regional decision support tool for identifying vulnerabilities of riverine habitat and fishes to climate change in the Great Lakes Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stewart, Jana S.; Covert, S. Alex; Estes, Nick J.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Krueger, Damon; Wieferich, Daniel J.; Slattery, Michael T.; Lyons, John D.; McKenna, James E.; Infante, Dana M.; Bruce, Jennifer L.

    2016-10-13

    Climate change is expected to alter the distributions and community composition of stream fishes in the Great Lakes region in the 21st century, in part as a result of altered hydrological systems (stream temperature, streamflow, and habitat). Resource managers need information and tools to understand where fish species and stream habitats are expected to change under future conditions. Fish sample collections and environmental variables from multiple sources across the United States Great Lakes Basin were integrated and used to develop empirical models to predict fish species occurrence under present-day climate conditions. Random Forests models were used to predict the probability of occurrence of 13 lotic fish species within each stream reach in the study area. Downscaled climate data from general circulation models were integrated with the fish species occurrence models to project fish species occurrence under future climate conditions. The 13 fish species represented three ecological guilds associated with water temperature (cold, cool, and warm), and the species were distributed in streams across the Great Lakes region. Vulnerability (loss of species) and opportunity (gain of species) scores were calculated for all stream reaches by evaluating changes in fish species occurrence from present-day to future climate conditions. The 13 fish species included 4 cold-water species, 5 cool-water species, and 4 warm-water species. Presently, the 4 cold-water species occupy from 15 percent (55,000 kilometers [km]) to 35 percent (130,000 km) of the total stream length (369,215 km) across the study area; the 5 cool-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 58 percent (215,000 km); and the 4 warm-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 38 percent (141,000 km).Fish models linked to projections from 13 downscaled climate models projected that in the mid to late 21st century (2046–65 and 2081–2100, respectively) habitats suitable for all 4 cold-water species and 4

  20. Clinical impact of pharmacogenetic profiling with a clinical decision support tool in polypharmacy home health patients: A prospective pilot randomized controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    Henderson, John C.; Neradilek, Moni B.; Moyer, Nicolas A.; Ashcraft, Kristine C.; Thirumaran, Ranjit K.

    2017-01-01

    Background In polypharmacy patients under home health management, pharmacogenetic testing coupled with guidance from a clinical decision support tool (CDST) on reducing drug, gene, and cumulative interaction risk may provide valuable insights in prescription drug treatment, reducing re-hospitalization and emergency department (ED) visits. We assessed the clinical impact of pharmacogenetic profiling integrating binary and cumulative drug and gene interaction warnings on home health polypharmacy patients. Methods and findings This prospective, open-label, randomized controlled trial was conducted at one hospital-based home health agency between February 2015 and February 2016. Recruitment came from patient referrals to home health at hospital discharge. Eligible patients were aged 50 years and older and taking or initiating treatment with medications with potential or significant drug-gene-based interactions. Subjects (n = 110) were randomized to pharmacogenetic profiling (n = 57). The study pharmacist reviewed drug-drug, drug-gene, and cumulative drug and/or gene interactions using the YouScript® CDST to provide drug therapy recommendations to clinicians. The control group (n = 53) received treatment as usual including pharmacist guided medication management using a standard drug information resource. The primary outcome measure was the number of re-hospitalizations and ED visits at 30 and 60 days after discharge from the hospital. The mean number of re-hospitalizations per patient in the tested vs. untested group was 0.25 vs. 0.38 at 30 days (relative risk (RR), 0.65; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.32–1.28; P = 0.21) and 0.33 vs. 0.70 at 60 days following enrollment (RR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.27–0.82; P = 0.007). The mean number of ED visits per patient in the tested vs. untested group was 0.25 vs. 0.40 at 30 days (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.31–1.21; P = 0.16) and 0.39 vs. 0.66 at 60 days (RR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.34–0.99; P = 0.045). Differences in composite outcomes at