75 FR 55619 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing of Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-13

... Numerical Simulations Risk Management Methodology September 7, 2010. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1) of the... for incorporation in the System for Theoretical Analysis and Numerical Simulations (``STANS'') risk... ETFs \\3\\ in the STANS margin calculation process.\\4\\ When OCC began including common stock and ETFs in...

A Framework for the Next Generation of Risk Science

PubMed Central

Krewski, Daniel; Andersen, Melvin E.; Paoli, Gregory M.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Al-Zoughool, Mustafa; Croteau, Maxine C.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Cote, Ila

2014-01-01

Objectives: In 2011, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency initiated the NexGen project to develop a new paradigm for the next generation of risk science. Methods: The NexGen framework was built on three cornerstones: the availability of new data on toxicity pathways made possible by fundamental advances in basic biology and toxicological science, the incorporation of a population health perspective that recognizes that most adverse health outcomes involve multiple determinants, and a renewed focus on new risk assessment methodologies designed to better inform risk management decision making. Results: The NexGen framework has three phases. Phase I (objectives) focuses on problem formulation and scoping, taking into account the risk context and the range of available risk management decision-making options. Phase II (risk assessment) seeks to identify critical toxicity pathway perturbations using new toxicity testing tools and technologies, and to better characterize risks and uncertainties using advanced risk assessment methodologies. Phase III (risk management) involves the development of evidence-based population health risk management strategies of a regulatory, economic, advisory, community-based, or technological nature, using sound principles of risk management decision making. Conclusions: Analysis of a series of case study prototypes indicated that many aspects of the NexGen framework are already beginning to be adopted in practice. Citation: Krewski D, Westphal M, Andersen ME, Paoli GM, Chiu WA, Al-Zoughool M, Croteau MC, Burgoon LD, Cote I. 2014. A framework for the next generation of risk science. Environ Health Perspect 122:796–805; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307260 PMID:24727499

Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Hall, Jim W.; Fung, Fai; Watts, Glenn; Colquhoun, Keith; Lambert, Chris

2014-08-01

We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how cost-effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.

"Don't know" responses to risk perception measures: implications for underserved populations.

PubMed

Waters, Erika A; Hay, Jennifer L; Orom, Heather; Kiviniemi, Marc T; Drake, Bettina F

2013-02-01

Risk perceptions are legitimate targets for behavioral interventions because they can motivate medical decisions and health behaviors. However, some survey respondents may not know (or may not indicate) their risk perceptions. The scope of "don't know" (DK) responding is unknown. Examine the prevalence and correlates of responding DK to items assessing perceived risk of colorectal cancer. Two nationally representative, population-based, cross-sectional surveys (2005 National Health Interview Survey [NHIS]; 2005 Health Information National Trends Survey [HINTS]), and one primary care clinic-based survey comprised of individuals from low-income communities. Analyses included 31,202 (NHIS), 1,937 (HINTS), and 769 (clinic) individuals. Five items assessed perceived risk of colorectal cancer. Four of the items differed in format and/or response scale: comparative risk (NHIS, HINTS); absolute risk (HINTS, clinic), and "likelihood" and "chance" response scales (clinic). Only the clinic-based survey included an explicit DK response option. "Don't know" responding was 6.9% (NHIS), 7.5% (HINTS-comparative), and 8.7% (HINTS-absolute). "Don't know" responding was 49.1% and 69.3% for the "chance" and "likely" response options (clinic). Correlates of DK responding were characteristics generally associated with disparities (e.g., low education), but the pattern of results varied among samples, question formats, and response scales. The surveys were developed independently and employed different methodologies and items. Consequently, the results were not directly comparable. There may be multiple explanations for differences in the magnitude and characteristics of DK responding. "Don't know" responding is more prevalent in populations affected by health disparities. Either not assessing or not analyzing DK responses could further disenfranchise these populations and negatively affect the validity of research and the efficacy of interventions seeking to eliminate health disparities.

Integrated cost-effectiveness analysis of agri-environmental measures for water quality.

PubMed

Balana, Bedru B; Jackson-Blake, Leah; Martin-Ortega, Julia; Dunn, Sarah

2015-09-15

This paper presents an application of integrated methodological approach for identifying cost-effective combinations of agri-environmental measures to achieve water quality targets. The methodological approach involves linking hydro-chemical modelling with economic costs of mitigation measures. The utility of the approach was explored for the River Dee catchment in North East Scotland, examining the cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures for nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pollutants. In-stream nitrate concentration was modelled using the STREAM-N and phosphorus using INCA-P model. Both models were first run for baseline conditions and then their effectiveness for changes in land management was simulated. Costs were based on farm income foregone, capital and operational expenditures. The costs and effects data were integrated using 'Risk Solver Platform' optimization in excel to produce the most cost-effective combination of measures by which target nutrient reductions could be attained at a minimum economic cost. The analysis identified different combination of measures as most cost-effective for the two pollutants. An important aspect of this paper is integration of model-based effectiveness estimates with economic cost of measures for cost-effectiveness analysis of land and water management options. The methodological approach developed is not limited to the two pollutants and the selected agri-environmental measures considered in the paper; the approach can be adapted to the cost-effectiveness analysis of any catchment-scale environmental management options. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

78 FR 47041 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-02

... methodology developed by NationsShares, a firm that develops proprietary derivatives-based indexes and options... Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To List Options... the Exchange of options on the Nations VolDex index, a new index that measures changes in implied...

Tsunami evacuation analysis, modelling and planning: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Aniel-Quiroga, Iñigo; Abad Herrero, Sheila; González Rodriguez, Mauricio; Larreynaga, Jeniffer; Gavidia, Francisco; Quetzalcoalt Gutiérrez, Omar; Álvarez-Gómez, Jose Antonio; Medina Santamaría, Raúl

2014-05-01

Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. Conducting adequate tsunami risk assessments is essential, as the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results allow the identification of adequate, site-specific and vulnerability-oriented risk management options, with the formulation of a tsunami evacuation plan being one of the main expected results. An evacuation plan requires the analysis of the territory and an evaluation of the relevant elements (hazard, population, evacuation routes, and shelters), the modelling of the evacuation, and the proposal of alternatives for those communities located in areas with limited opportunities for evacuation. Evacuation plans, which are developed by the responsible authorities and decision makers, would benefit from a clear and straightforward connection between the scientific and technical information from tsunami risk assessments and the subsequent risk reduction options. Scientifically-based evacuation plans would translate into benefits for the society in terms of mortality reduction. This work presents a comprehensive framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process, such as the potential location for vertical evacuation shelters and alternative routes. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge the gap between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study through the project "Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment in El Salvador", funded by AECID during the period 2009-12, demonstrating its applicability to site-specific response times and population characteristics.

TANK SPACE ALTERNATIVES ANALYSIS REPORT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

TURNER DA; KIRCH NW; WASHENFELDER DJ

2010-04-27

This report addresses the projected shortfall of double-shell tank (DST) space starting in 2018. Using a multi-variant methodology, a total of eight new-term options and 17 long-term options for recovering DST space were evaluated. These include 11 options that were previously evaluated in RPP-7702, Tank Space Options Report (Rev. 1). Based on the results of this evaluation, two near-term and three long-term options have been identified as being sufficient to overcome the shortfall of DST space projected to occur between 2018 and 2025.

Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

2016-04-01

Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing agricultural water demand significantly affect downstream water availability. Water demand options demonstrate potential to improve environmental flow conditions and satisfy legal water supply requirements for downstream riparian states. On the other hand, currently planned large scale infrastructural projects demonstrate reduced value in certain scenarios, illustrating the impacts of lock-in effects of large scale infrastructure. From a methodological perspective, we find that while the stakeholder-driven approach revealed robust options in a resource-light manner and helped initiate much needed interaction amongst stakeholders, the modelling approach provides complementary quantitative information. The study reveals robust adaptation options for this important basin and provides a strong methodological basis for carrying out future studies that support adaptation decision making.

The European style arithmetic Asian option pricing with stochastic interest rate based on Black Scholes model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winarti, Yuyun Guna; Noviyanti, Lienda; Setyanto, Gatot R.

2017-03-01

The stock investment is a high risk investment. Therefore, there are derivative securities to reduce these risks. One of them is Asian option. The most fundamental of option is option pricing. Many factors that determine the option price are underlying asset price, strike price, maturity date, volatility, risk free interest rate and dividends. Various option pricing usually assume that risk free interest rate is constant. While in reality, this factor is stochastic process. The arithmetic Asian option is free from distribution, then, its pricing is done using the modified Black-Scholes model. In this research, the modification use the Curran approximation. This research focuses on the arithmetic Asian option pricing without dividends. The data used is the stock daily closing data of Telkom from January 1 2016 to June 30 2016. Finnaly, those option price can be used as an option trading strategy.

Evaluation of generic types of drilling fluid using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process.

PubMed

Sadiq, Rehan; Husain, Tahir; Veitch, Brian; Bose, Neil

2003-12-01

The composition of drilling muds is based on a mixture of clays and additives in a base fluid. There are three generic categories of base fluid--water, oil, and synthetic. Water-based fluids (WBFs) are relatively environmentally benign, but drilling performance is better with oil-based fluids (OBFs). The oil and gas industry developed synthetic-based fluids (SBFs), such as vegetable esters, olefins, ethers, and others, which provide drilling performance comparable to OBFs, but with lower environmental and occupational health effects. The primary objective of this paper is to present a methodology to guide decision-making in the selection and evaluation of three generic types of drilling fluids using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In this paper a comparison of drilling fluids is made considering various activities involved in the life cycle of drilling fluids. This paper evaluates OBFs, WBFs, and SBFs based on four major impacts--operations, resources, economics, and liabilities. Four major activities--drilling, discharging offshore, loading and transporting, and disposing onshore--cause the operational impacts. Each activity involves risks related to occupational injuries (safety), general public health, environmental impact, and energy use. A multicriteria analysis strategy was used for the selection and evaluation of drilling fluids using a risk-based AHP. A four-level hierarchical structure is developed to determine the final relative scores, and the SBFs are found to be the best option.

Entrepreneurial Skills and Socio-Cultural Factors: An Empirical Analysis in Secondary Education Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosique-Blasco, Mario; Madrid-Guijarro, Antonia; García-Pérez-de-Lema, Domingo

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore how entrepreneurial skills (such as creativity, proactivity and risk tolerance) and socio-cultural factors (such as role model and businessman image) affect secondary education students' propensity towards entrepreneurial options in their future careers. Design/methodology/approach: A sample of…

Options/Choices in Public Education: A Report of a National and Statewide Survey in Utah of Educational Choice Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elliott, Norman, Comp.

An analysis of the development of diverse educational programs based on a common curriculum core is the purpose of this paper. After an overview of the major kinds of option/choice programs, a study of educational options in Utah and the United States is described. Three research methodologies were used to collect data: a statewide survey on…

Integrated treatment options for male perpetrators of intimate partner violence.

PubMed

Crane, Cory A; Easton, Caroline J

2017-01-01

Male-to-female intimate partner violence remains a worldwide public health issue with adverse physical and psychological consequences for victims, perpetrators and children. Personality disorders, addiction, trauma and mood symptoms are established risk factors for intimate partner violence perpetration and factor prominently into a recovery-oriented treatment approach. We reviewed the partner violence literature for detailed reports of traditional as well as innovative, integrated treatment approaches. Empirically based recommendations for intervention programs and the policies that guide intervention efforts are offered. Nascent research suggests that integrated treatment models utilising a holistic approach to account for psychological comorbidity and interventions that involve a motivational interviewing component appear promising in terms of significantly improving intimate partner violence treatment compliance and reducing subsequent acts of physical partner violence. Further, methodologically rigorous research is required to fully assess the benefits of traditional and integrated treatment options. We have advanced several recommendations, including the development of and exclusive reliance upon empirically supported treatments, conducting a thorough risk and needs assessment of the offender and the immediate family to facilitate appropriate treatment referrals, integrating content to foster the offender's internal motivation to change maladaptive behaviours, and attempting to minimise offender treatment burdens through the strategic use of integrated treatment models. Intimate partner violence is a complicated and nuanced problem that is perpetrated by a heterogeneous population and requires greater variability in integrated treatment options. [Crane CA, Easton CJ. Integrated treatment options for male perpetrators of intimate partner violence. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;36:24-33]. © 2017 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

A Decision Support Framework for Feasibility Analysis of International Space Station (ISS) Research Capability Enhancing Options

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ortiz, James N.; Scott,Kelly; Smith, Harold

2004-01-01

The assembly and operation of the ISS has generated significant challenges that have ultimately impacted resources available to the program's primary mission: research. To address this, program personnel routinely perform trade-off studies on alternative options to enhance research. The approach, content level of analysis and resulting outputs of these studies vary due to many factors, however, complicating the Program Manager's job of selecting the best option. To address this, the program requested a framework be developed to evaluate multiple research-enhancing options in a thorough, disciplined and repeatable manner, and to identify the best option on the basis of cost, benefit and risk. The resulting framework consisted of a systematic methodology and a decision-support toolset. The framework provides quantifiable and repeatable means for ranking research-enhancing options for the complex and multiple-constraint domain of the space research laboratory. This paper describes the development, verification and validation of this framework and provides observations on its operational use.

A systematic review of model-based economic evaluations of diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for lower extremity artery disease.

PubMed

Vaidya, Anil; Joore, Manuela A; ten Cate-Hoek, Arina J; Kleinegris, Marie-Claire; ten Cate, Hugo; Severens, Johan L

2014-01-01

Lower extremity artery disease (LEAD) is a sign of wide spread atherosclerosis also affecting coronary, cerebral and renal arteries and is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events. Many economic evaluations have been published for LEAD due to its clinical, social and economic importance. The aim of this systematic review was to assess modelling methods used in published economic evaluations in the field of LEAD. Our review appraised and compared the general characteristics, model structure and methodological quality of published models. Electronic databases MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched until February 2013 via OVID interface. Cochrane database of systematic reviews, Health Technology Assessment database hosted by National Institute for Health research and National Health Services Economic Evaluation Database (NHSEED) were also searched. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed by using the Philips' checklist. Sixteen model-based economic evaluations were identified and included. Eleven models compared therapeutic health technologies; three models compared diagnostic tests and two models compared a combination of diagnostic and therapeutic options for LEAD. Results of this systematic review revealed an acceptable to low methodological quality of the included studies. Methodological diversity and insufficient information posed a challenge for valid comparison of the included studies. In conclusion, there is a need for transparent, methodologically comparable and scientifically credible model-based economic evaluations in the field of LEAD. Future modelling studies should include clinically and economically important cardiovascular outcomes to reflect the wider impact of LEAD on individual patients and on the society.

A risk assessment approach for fresh fruits.

PubMed

Bassett, J; McClure, P

2008-04-01

To describe the approach used in conducting a fit-for-purpose risk assessment of microbiological human pathogens associated with fresh fruit and the risk management recommendations made. A qualitative risk assessment for microbiological hazards in fresh fruit was carried out based on the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) framework, modified to consider multiple hazards and all fresh (whole) fruits. The assessment determines 14 significant bacterial, viral, protozoal and nematodal hazards associated with fresh produce, assesses the probable level of exposure from fresh fruit, concludes on the risk from each hazard, and considers and recommends risk management actions. A review of potential risk management options allowed the comparison of effectiveness with the potential exposure to each hazard. Washing to a recommended protocol is an appropriate risk management action for the vast majority of consumption events, particularly when good agricultural and hygienic practices are followed and with the addition of refrigerated storage for low acid fruit. Additional safeguards are recommended for aggregate fruits with respect to the risk from protozoa. The potentially complex process of assessing the risks of multiple hazards in multiple but similar commodities can be simplified in a qualitative assessment approach that employs the Codex methodology.

Design risk assessment for burst-prone mines: Application in a Canadian mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, David J.

A proactive stance towards improving the effectiveness and consistency of risk assessments has been adopted recently by mining companies and industry. The next 10-20 years forecasts that ore deposits accessible using shallow mining techniques will diminish. The industry continues to strive for success in "deeper" mining projects in order to keep up with the continuing demand for raw materials. Although the returns are quite profitable, many projects have been sidelined due to high uncertainty and technical risk in the mining of the mineral deposit. Several hardrock mines have faced rockbursting and seismicity problems. Within those reported, mines in countries like South Africa, Australia and Canada have documented cases of severe rockburst conditions attributed to the mining depth. Severe rockburst conditions known as "burst-prone" can be effectively managed with design. Adopting a more robust design can ameliorate the exposure of workers and equipment to adverse conditions and minimize the economic consequences, which can hinder the bottom line of an operation. This thesis presents a methodology created for assessing the design risk in burst-prone mines. The methodology includes an evaluation of relative risk ratings for scenarios with options of risk reduction through several design principles. With rockbursts being a hazard of seismic events, the methodology is based on research in the area of mining seismicity factoring in rockmass failure mechanisms, which results from a combination of mining induced stress, geological structures, rockmass properties and mining influences. The methodology was applied to case studies at Craig Mine of Xstrata Nickel in Sudbury, Ontario, which is known to contain seismically active fault zones. A customized risk assessment was created and applied to rockburst case studies, evaluating the seismic vulnerability and consequence for each case. Application of the methodology to Craig Mine demonstrates that changes in the design can reduce both exposure risk (personnel and equipment), and economical risk (revenue and costs). Fatal and catastrophic consequences can be averted through robust planning and design. Two customized approaches were developed to conduct risk assessment of case studies at Craig Mine. Firstly, the Brownfield Approach utilizes the seismic database to determine the seismic hazard from a rating system that evaluates frequency-magnitude, event size, and event-blast relation. Secondly, the Greenfield Approach utilizes the seismic database, focusing on larger magnitude events, rocktype, and geological structure. The customized Greenfield Approach can also be applied in the evaluation of design risk in deep mines with the same setting and condition as Craig Mine. Other mines with different settings and conditions can apply the principles in the methodology to evaluate design alternatives and risk reduction strategies for burst-prone mines.

Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

2017-03-01

The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

76 FR 23632 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Amex LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-27

..., CBOE calculates the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (``GVZ''), which is based on the VIX methodology applied to options on the SPDR Gold Trust (``GLD''). The current filing would permit $0.50 strike price... other exchange-traded fund (``ETF'') options. See Rule 903, Commentary .05 Volatility indexes are...

Distinct encoding of risk and value in economic choice between multiple risky options☆

PubMed Central

Wright, Nicholas D.; Symmonds, Mkael; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

Neural encoding of value-based stimuli is suggested to involve representations of summary statistics, including risk and expected value (EV). A more complex, but ecologically more common, context is when multiple risky options are evaluated together. However, it is unknown whether encoding related to option evaluation in these situations involves similar principles. Here we employed fMRI during a task that parametrically manipulated EV and risk in two simultaneously presented lotteries, both of which contained either gains or losses. We found representations of EV in medial prefrontal cortex and anterior insula, an encoding that was dependent on which option was chosen (i.e. chosen and unchosen EV) and whether the choice was over gains or losses. Parietal activity reflected whether the riskier or surer option was selected, whilst activity in a network of regions that also included parietal cortex reflected both combined risk and difference in risk for the two options. Our findings provide support for the idea that summary statistics underpin a representation of value-based stimuli, and further that these summary statistics undergo distinct forms of encoding. PMID:23684860

Applicability of risk-based management and the need for risk-based economic decision analysis at hazardous waste contaminated sites.

PubMed

Khadam, Ibrahim; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

2003-07-01

Decision analysis in subsurface contamination management is generally carried out through a traditional engineering economic viewpoint. However, new advances in human health risk assessment, namely, the probabilistic risk assessment, and the growing awareness of the importance of soft data in the decision-making process, require decision analysis methodologies that are capable of accommodating non-technical and politically biased qualitative information. In this work, we discuss the major limitations of the currently practiced decision analysis framework, which evolves around the definition of risk and cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. A demonstration using a numerical example was conducted to provide insight on these limitations of the current decision analysis framework. The results from this simple ground water contamination and remediation scenario were identical to those obtained from studies carried out on existing Superfund sites, which suggests serious flaws in the current risk management framework. In order to provide a perspective on how these limitations may be avoided in future formulation of the management framework, more matured and well-accepted approaches to decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, where public health and public investment are of great concern, are presented and their applicability in subsurface remediation management is discussed. Finally, in light of the success of the application of risk-based decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, potential options for decision analysis in subsurface contamination management are discussed.

The effectiveness of massage therapy for the treatment of nonspecific low back pain: a systematic review of systematic reviews.

PubMed

Kumar, Saravana; Beaton, Kate; Hughes, Tricia

2013-09-04

The last decade has seen a growth in the utilization of complementary and alternative medicine therapies, and one of the most popular and sought-after complementary and alternative medicine therapies for nonspecific low back pain is massage. Massage may often be perceived as a safe therapeutic modality without any significant risks or side effects. However, despite its popularity, there continues to be ongoing debate on the effectiveness of massage in treating nonspecific low back pain. With a rapidly evolving research evidence base and access to innovative means of synthesizing evidence, it is time to reinvestigate this issue. A systematic, step-by-step approach, underpinned by best practice in reviewing the literature, was utilized as part of the methodology of this umbrella review. A systematic search was conducted in the following databases: Embase, MEDLINE, AMED, ICONDA, Academic Search Premier, Australia/New Zealand Reference Centre, CINAHL, HealthSource, SPORTDiscus, PubMed, The Cochrane Library, Scopus, Web of Knowledge/Web of Science, PsycINFO, and ProQuest Nursing and Allied Health Source, investigating systematic reviews and meta-analyses from January 2000 to December 2012, and restricted to English-language documents. Methodological quality of included reviews was undertaken using the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine critical appraisal tool. Nine systematic reviews were found. The methodological quality of the systematic reviews varied (from poor to excellent) although, overall, the primary research informing these systematic reviews was generally considered to be weak quality. The findings indicate that massage may be an effective treatment option when compared to placebo and some active treatment options (such as relaxation), especially in the short term. There is conflicting and contradictory findings for the effectiveness of massage therapy for the treatment of nonspecific low back pain when compared against other manual therapies (such as mobilization), standard medical care, and acupuncture. There is an emerging body of evidence, albeit small, that supports the effectiveness of massage therapy for the treatment of non-specific low back pain in the short term. Due to common methodological flaws in the primary research, which informed the systematic reviews, recommendations arising from this evidence base should be interpreted with caution.

Summary of the Committee to Advise on Tropical Medicine and Travel (CATMAT) Statement on Travellers’ Diarrhea

PubMed Central

Libman, M

2015-01-01

Background Most travellers’ diarrhea (TD) infections occur during travel to low- and middle-income countries. Type of travel, duration of stay, age of traveller and presence of certain medical conditions are important factors to consider for risk of TD. The Committee to Advise on Tropical Medicine and Travel (CATMAT) assembled a TD working group to develop recommendations on prevention and treatment of TD in travellers. This document is a summary of the Statement on Travellers’ Diarrhea. Methods Following a systematic review of the literature, recommendations on the prevention and treatment of TD were developed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology to evaluate data quality, benefits and harms of the intervention, and values and preferences of the traveller. Other recommendations were based on a review of the literature and expert opinion. Recommendations Using the GRADE methodology, CATMAT concluded that oral cholera vaccine should not be routinely recommended to prevent TD in Canadian travellers. This recommendation was based on moderate quality data that showed this vaccine was not effective in preventing TD in travellers compared to placebo. Bismuth subsalicylate (BSS), fluoroquinolones or rifaximin are options for the prevention of TD based on high-quality data for BSS and fluoroquinolones and moderate evidence for rifaximin. For the treatment of TD, loperamide (alone or in combination with antibiotics), fluoroquinolones, azithromycin and rifaximin are all options, with varying degrees of data quality. Based on available evidence and expert opinion, CATMAT recommends handwashing or the use of hand sanitizer, as well as prudent choice and preparation of food and beverages as best practices for preventing diarrhea while travelling. At this time, a recommendation cannot be made for either the use of probiotics and prebiotics to prevent TD or the use of BSS to treat TD due to insufficient available evidence. Conclusion With the exception of BSS for prevention of TD (strong recommendation for use), CATMAT conditionally recommends the use of each of the other GRADE-evaluated preventive and therapeutic products assessed in this Statement. These CATMAT recommendations should be considered as options in the prevention and treatment of TD based on the particular situation of the traveller. PMID:29769922

76 FR 33387 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-08

... calculates the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (``GVZ''), which is based on the VIX methodology applied to options on the SPDR Gold Trust (``GLD''). The current filing would permit $0.50 strike price intervals for... exchange-traded fund (``ETF'') options. See Rule 1012, Commentary .05(a)(iv). To the extent that the CBOE...

Assessment of Options for the Treatment of Nitrate Salt Wastes at Los Alamos National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robinson, Bruce Alan; Funk, David John; Stevens, Patrice Ann

2016-03-17

This paper summarizes the methodology used to evaluate options for treatment of the remediated nitrate salt waste containers at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The method selected must enable treatment of the waste drums, which consist of a mixture of complex nitrate salts (oxidizer) improperly mixed with sWheat Scoop®1, an organic kitty litter and absorbent (fuel), in a manner that renders the waste safe, meets the specifications of waste acceptance criteria, and is suitable for transport and final disposal in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant located in Carlsbad, New Mexico. A Core Remediation Team was responsible for comprehensively reviewing the options,more » ensuring a robust, defensible treatment recommendation. The evaluation process consisted of two steps. First, a prescreening process was conducted to cull the list on the basis for a decision of feasibility of certain potential options with respect to the criteria. Then, the remaining potential options were evaluated and ranked against each of the criteria in a consistent methodology. Numerical scores were established by consensus of the review team. Finally, recommendations were developed based on current information and understanding of the scientific, technical, and regulatory situation. A discussion of the preferred options and documentation of the process used to reach the recommended treatment options are presented.« less

Software Risk Identification for Interplanetary Probes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dougherty, Robert J.; Papadopoulos, Periklis E.

2005-01-01

The need for a systematic and effective software risk identification methodology is critical for interplanetary probes that are using increasingly complex and critical software. Several probe failures are examined that suggest more attention and resources need to be dedicated to identifying software risks. The direct causes of these failures can often be traced to systemic problems in all phases of the software engineering process. These failures have lead to the development of a practical methodology to identify risks for interplanetary probes. The proposed methodology is based upon the tailoring of the Software Engineering Institute's (SEI) method of taxonomy-based risk identification. The use of this methodology will ensure a more consistent and complete identification of software risks in these probes.

Gaming Space: A Game-Theoretic Methodology for Assessing the Deterrent Value of Space Control Options

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-06-07

Gaming Space A Game-Theoretic Methodology for Assessing the Deterrent Value of Space Control Options C O R...in space. Adversaries have already employed non -kinetic OSC capabilities, such as Global Positioning System jammers, in recent conflicts, and they...as part of the project “Assessing the Deterrent Value of Defensive Space Control Options.” The purpose of the project was to develop a methodology

Understanding Participatory Action Research: A Qualitative Research Methodology Option

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacDonald, Cathy

2012-01-01

Participatory Action Research (PAR) is a qualitative research methodology option that requires further understanding and consideration. PAR is considered democratic, equitable, liberating, and life-enhancing qualitative inquiry that remains distinct from other qualitative methodologies (Kach & Kralik, 2006). Using PAR, qualitative features of an…

Methodological considerations for economic modelling of latent tuberculous infection screening in migrants.

PubMed

Shedrawy, J; Siroka, A; Oxlade, O; Matteelli, A; Lönnroth, K

2017-09-01

Tuberculosis (TB) in migrants from endemic to low-incidence countries results mainly from the reactivation of latent tuberculous infection (LTBI). LTBI screening policies for migrants vary greatly between countries, and the evidence on the cost-effectiveness of the different approaches is weak and heterogeneous. The aim of this review was to assess the methodology used in published economic evaluations of LTBI screening among migrants to identify critical methodological options that must be considered when using modelling to determine value for money from different economic perspectives. Three electronic databases were searched and 10 articles were included. There was considerable variation across this small number of studies with regard to economic perspective, main outcomes, modelling technique, screening options and target populations considered, as well as in parameterisation of the epidemiological situation, test accuracy, efficacy, safety and programme performance. Only one study adopted a societal perspective; others adopted a health care or wider government perspective. Parameters representing the cascade of screening and treating LTBI varied widely, with some studies using highly aspirational scenarios. This review emphasises the need for a more harmonised approach for economic analysis, and better transparency in how policy options and economic perspectives influence methodological choices. Variability is justifiable for some parameters. However, sufficient data are available to standardise others. A societal perspective is ideal, but can be challenging due to limited data. Assumptions about programme performance should be based on empirical data or at least realistic assumptions. Results should be interpreted within specific contexts and policy options, with cautious generalisations.

Remarks on a financial inverse problem by means of Monte Carlo Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuomo, Salvatore; Di Somma, Vittorio; Sica, Federica

2017-10-01

Estimating the price of a barrier option is a typical inverse problem. In this paper we present a numerical and statistical framework for a market with risk-free interest rate and a risk asset, described by a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). After approximating the risk asset with a numerical method, we find the final option price by following an approach based on sequential Monte Carlo methods. All theoretical results are applied to the case of an option whose underlying is a real stock.

Using simulation to study difficult clinical issues: prenatal counseling at the threshold of viability across American and Dutch cultures.

PubMed

Geurtzen, Rosa; Hogeveen, Marije; Rajani, Anand K; Chitkara, Ritu; Antonius, Timothy; van Heijst, Arno; Draaisma, Jos; Halamek, Louis P

2014-06-01

Prenatal counseling at the threshold of viability is a challenging yet critically important activity, and care guidelines differ across cultures. Studying how this task is performed in the actual clinical environment is extremely difficult. In this pilot study, we used simulation as a methodology with 2 aims as follows: first, to explore the use of simulation incorporating a standardized pregnant patient as an investigative methodology and, second, to determine similarities and differences in content and style of prenatal counseling between American and Dutch neonatologists. We compared counseling practice between 11 American and 11 Dutch neonatologists, using a simulation-based investigative methodology. All subjects performed prenatal counseling with a simulated pregnant patient carrying a fetus at the limits of viability. The following elements of scenario design were standardized across all scenarios: layout of the physical environment, details of the maternal and fetal histories, questions and responses of the standardized pregnant patient, and the time allowed for consultation. American subjects typically presented several treatment options without bias, whereas Dutch subjects were more likely to explicitly advise a specific course of treatment (emphasis on partial life support). American subjects offered comfort care more frequently than the Dutch subjects and also discussed options for maximal life support more often than their Dutch colleagues. Simulation is a useful research methodology for studying activities difficult to assess in the actual clinical environment such as prenatal counseling at the limits of viability. Dutch subjects were more directive in their approach than their American counterparts, offering fewer options for care and advocating for less invasive interventions. American subjects were more likely to offer a wider range of therapeutic options without providing a recommendation for any specific option.

Three essays on agricultural price volatility and the linkages between agricultural and energy markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Feng

This dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay I use a volatility spillover model to find evidence of significant spillovers from crude oil prices to corn cash and futures prices, and that these spillover effects are time-varying. Results reveal that corn markets have become much more connected to crude oil markets after the introduction of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Furthermore, crude oil prices transmit positive volatility spillovers into corn prices and movements in corn prices become more energy-driven as the ethanol gasoline consumption ratio increases. Based on this strong volatility link between crude oil and corn prices, a new cross hedging strategy for managing corn price risk using oil futures is examined and its performance studied. Results show that this cross hedging strategy provides only slightly better hedging performance compared to traditional hedging in corn futures markets alone. The implication is that hedging corn price risk in corn futures markets alone can still provide relatively satisfactory performance in the biofuel era. The second essay studies the spillover effect of biofuel policy on participation in the Conservation Reserve Program. Landowners' participation decisions are modeled using a real options framework. A novel aspect of the model is that it captures the structural change in agriculture caused by rising biofuel production. The resulting model is used to simulate the spillover effect under various conditions. In particular, I simulate how increased growth in agricultural returns, persistence of the biofuel production boom, and the volatility surrounding agricultural returns, affect conservation program participation decisions. Policy implications of these results are also discussed. The third essay proposes a methodology to construct a risk-adjusted implied volatility measure that removes the forecasting bias of the model-free implied volatility measure. The risk adjustment is based on a closed-form relationship between the expectation of future volatility and the model-free implied volatility assuming a jump-diffusion model. I use a GMM estimation framework to identify the key model parameters needed to apply the model. An empirical application to corn futures implied volatility is used to illustrate the methodology and demonstrate differences between my approach and the model-free implied volatility using observed corn option prices. I compare the risk-adjusted forecast with the unadjusted forecast as well as other alternatives; and results suggest that the risk-adjusted volatility is unbiased, informationally more efficient, and has superior predictive power over the alternatives considered.

Tsunami evacuation modelling as a tool for risk reduction: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Riancho, P.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Abad, S.; González, M.; Larreynaga, J.; Gavidia, F.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Medina, R.

2013-12-01

Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents an integral framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study, demonstrating its applicability to site-specific response times and population characteristics.

Comparison of the Environment, Health, And Safety Characteristics of Advanced Thorium- Uranium and Uranium-Plutonium Fuel Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ault, Timothy M.

The environment, health, and safety properties of thorium-uranium-based (''thorium'') fuel cycles are estimated and compared to those of analogous uranium-plutonium-based (''uranium'') fuel cycle options. A structured assessment methodology for assessing and comparing fuel cycle is refined and applied to several reference fuel cycle options. Resource recovery as a measure of environmental sustainability for thorium is explored in depth in terms of resource availability, chemical processing requirements, and radiological impacts. A review of available experience and recent practices indicates that near-term thorium recovery will occur as a by-product of mining for other commodities, particularly titanium. The characterization of actively-mined global titanium, uranium, rare earth element, and iron deposits reveals that by-product thorium recovery would be sufficient to satisfy even the most intensive nuclear demand for thorium at least six times over. Chemical flowsheet analysis indicates that the consumption of strong acids and bases associated with thorium resource recovery is 3-4 times larger than for uranium recovery, with the comparison of other chemical types being less distinct. Radiologically, thorium recovery imparts about one order of magnitude larger of a collective occupational dose than uranium recovery. Moving to the entire fuel cycle, four fuel cycle options are compared: a limited-recycle (''modified-open'') uranium fuel cycle, a modified-open thorium fuel cycle, a full-recycle (''closed'') uranium fuel cycle, and a closed thorium fuel cycle. A combination of existing data and calculations using SCALE are used to develop material balances for the four fuel cycle options. The fuel cycle options are compared on the bases of resource sustainability, waste management (both low- and high-level waste, including used nuclear fuel), and occupational radiological impacts. At steady-state, occupational doses somewhat favor the closed thorium option while low-level waste volumes slightly favor the closed uranium option, although uncertainties are significant in both cases. The high-level waste properties (radioactivity, decay heat, and ingestion radiotoxicity) all significantly favor the closed fuel cycle options (especially the closed thorium option), but an alternative measure of key fission product inventories that drive risk in a repository slightly favors the uranium fuel cycles due to lower production of iodine-129. Resource requirements are much lower for the closed fuel cycle options and are relatively similar between thorium and uranium. In additional to the steady-state results, a variety of potential transition pathways are considered for both uranium and thorium fuel cycle end-states. For dose, low-level waste, and fission products contributing to repository risk, the differences among transition impacts largely reflected the steady-state differences. However, the HLW properties arrived at a distinctly opposite result in transition (strongly favoring uranium, whereas thorium was strongly favored at steady-state), because used present-day fuel is disposed without being recycled given that uranium-233, rather than plutonium, is the primarily fissile nuclide at the closed thorium fuel cycle's steady-state. Resource consumption was the only metric was strongly influenced by the specific transition pathway selected, favoring those pathways that more quickly arrived at steady-state through higher breeding ratio assumptions regardless of whether thorium or uranium was used.

Development of a multicriteria assessment model for ranking biomass feedstock collection and transportation systems.

PubMed

Kumar, Amit; Sokhansanj, Shahab; Flynn, Peter C

2006-01-01

This study details multicriteria assessment methodology that integrates economic, social, environmental, and technical factors in order to rank alternatives for biomass collection and transportation systems. Ranking of biomass collection systems is based on cost of delivered biomass, quality of biomass supplied, emissions during collection, energy input to the chain operations, and maturity of supply system technologies. The assessment methodology is used to evaluate alternatives for collecting 1.8 x 10(6) dry t/yr based on assumptions made on performance of various assemblies of biomass collection systems. A proposed collection option using loafer/ stacker was shown to be the best option followed by ensiling and baling. Ranking of biomass transport systems is based on cost of biomass transport, emissions during transport, traffic congestion, and maturity of different technologies. At a capacity of 4 x 10(6) dry t/yr, rail transport was shown to be the best option, followed by truck transport and pipeline transport, respectively. These rankings depend highly on assumed maturity of technologies and scale of utilization. These may change if technologies such as loafing or ensiling (wet storage) methods are proved to be infeasible for large-scale collection systems.

The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) Approach to Reducing Risk of Flooding and Water Pollution in Farmed Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewett, Caspar J. M.; Quinn, Paul; Wilkinson, Mark

2014-05-01

Intense farming plays a key role in contributing to problems such as increased flood risk, soil erosion and poor water quality. This means that there is great potential for agricultural practitioners to play a major part in reducing multiple risks through better land-use management. Greater understanding by farmers, land managers, practitioners and policy-makers of the ways in which farmed landscapes contribute to risks and the ways in which those risks might be mitigated can be an essential component in improving practice. The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) approach involves the development of a range of visualization and communication tools to help compare the risks associated with different farming practices and explore options to manage runoff. DSMs are simple decision support systems intended for use by the non-expert which combine expert hydrological evidence with local knowledge of runoff patterns. They are developed through direct engagement with stakeholders, ensuring that the examples and language used makes sense to end-users. A key element of the tools is that they show the current conditions of the land and describe extremes of land-use management within a hydrological and agricultural land-management context. The tools include conceptual models of a series of pre-determined runoff scenarios, providing the end-user with a variety of potential land management practices and runoff management options. Visual examples of different farming practices are used to illustrate the impact of good and bad practice on specific problems such as nutrient export or risk of flooding. These show both how current conditions cause problems downstream and how systems are vulnerable to changes in climate and land-use intensification. The level of risk associated with a particular land management option is represented by a mapping on a two- or three-dimensional matrix. Interactive spreadsheet-based tools are developed in which multiple questions allow the user to explore different management options and see the impact of decisions plotted as a risk level on the DSM. They employ a ranking methodology combined with a simple mapping of information onto a visual matrix. A nominal scoring system is used to rank higher or lower runoff risk. The end-user can then assess numerous land use and runoff management options to lower risk. The objective is to encourage policy makers, catchment managers and farmers to produce resilient local landscapes at minimal cost. A number of DSMs have been developed successfully over a number of years working with a variety of stakeholders in the UK, including the Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix (PERM), The Nitrate Export Risk Matrix (NO3RM) and arable and livestock versions of the Floods and Agriculture Risk Matrix (FARM) (available from http://research.ncl.ac.uk/thefarm). Despite uncertainty, the tools do contribute to stakeholders having greater confidence in making decisions to make landscapes more resilient. DSMs have been taken up widely in the UK by bodies such as the Environment Agency and Defra, and have been successfully employed within wider decision support frameworks alongside modelling at multiple scales. Such tools could be used in similar farmed landscapes internationally.

Rural Schools Prototype Analysis. Volume II: Methodology. An Example Process of Identifying Determinants, Selecting Options, & Developing Schematic Designs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Construction Systems Management, Inc., Anchorage, AK.

Volume II of a 3-volume report demonstrates the use of Design Determinants and Options (presented in Volume I) in the planning and design of small rural Alaskan secondary schools. Section I, a checklist for gathering site-specific information to be used as a data base for facility design, is organized in the same format as Volume I, which can be…

A prototype software methodology for the rapid evaluation of biomanufacturing process options.

PubMed

Chhatre, Sunil; Francis, Richard; O'Donovan, Kieran; Titchener-Hooker, Nigel J; Newcombe, Anthony R; Keshavarz-Moore, Eli

2007-10-01

A three-layered simulation methodology is described that rapidly evaluates biomanufacturing process options. In each layer, inferior options are screened out, while more promising candidates are evaluated further in the subsequent, more refined layer, which uses more rigorous models that require more data from time-consuming experimentation. Screening ensures laboratory studies are focused only on options showing the greatest potential. To simplify the screening, outputs of production level, cost and time are combined into a single value using multi-attribute-decision-making techniques. The methodology was illustrated by evaluating alternatives to an FDA (U.S. Food and Drug Administration)-approved process manufacturing rattlesnake antivenom. Currently, antivenom antibodies are recovered from ovine serum by precipitation/centrifugation and proteolyzed before chromatographic purification. Alternatives included increasing the feed volume, replacing centrifugation with microfiltration and replacing precipitation/centrifugation with a Protein G column. The best alternative used a higher feed volume and a Protein G step. By rapidly evaluating the attractiveness of options, the methodology facilitates efficient and cost-effective process development.

Asset allocation using option-implied moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahaludin, H.; Abdullah, M. H.; Tolos, S. M.

2017-09-01

This study uses an option-implied distribution as the input in asset allocation. The computation of risk-neutral densities (RND) are based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index option and its constituents. Since the RNDs estimation does not incorporate risk premium, the conversion of RND into risk-world density (RWD) is required. The RWD is obtained through parametric calibration using the beta distributions. The mean, volatility, and covariance are then calculated to construct the portfolio. The performance of the portfolio is evaluated by using portfolio volatility and Sharpe ratio.

A Personalized Approach of Patient-Health Care Provider Communication Regarding Colorectal Cancer Screening Options.

PubMed

Sava, M Gabriela; Dolan, James G; May, Jerrold H; Vargas, Luis G

2018-07-01

Current colorectal cancer screening guidelines by the US Preventive Services Task Force endorse multiple options for average-risk patients and recommend that screening choices should be guided by individual patient preferences. Implementing these recommendations in practice is challenging because they depend on accurate and efficient elicitation and assessment of preferences from patients who are facing a novel task. To present a methodology for analyzing the sensitivity and stability of a patient's preferences regarding colorectal cancer screening options and to provide a starting point for a personalized discussion between the patient and the health care provider about the selection of the appropriate screening option. This research is a secondary analysis of patient preference data collected as part of a previous study. We propose new measures of preference sensitivity and stability that can be used to determine if additional information provided would result in a change to the initially most preferred colorectal cancer screening option. Illustrative results of applying the methodology to the preferences of 2 patients, of different ages, are provided. The results show that different combinations of screening options are viable for each patient and that the health care provider should emphasize different information during the medical decision-making process. Sensitivity and stability analysis can supply health care providers with key topics to focus on when communicating with a patient and the degree of emphasis to place on each of them to accomplish specific goals. The insights provided by the analysis can be used by health care providers to approach communication with patients in a more personalized way, by taking into consideration patients' preferences before adding their own expertise to the discussion.

Application of Real Options Theory to DoD Software Acquisitions

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-02-20

Future Combat Systems Program. Washington, DC. U.S. Government Printing Office. Damodaran , A. (2007). Investment Valuation : The Options To Expand... valuation methodology, when enhanced and properly formulated around a proposed or existing software investment employing the spiral development approach...THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iii ABSTRACT The traditional real options valuation methodology, when enhanced and properly formulated

Tool for Ranking Research Options

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ortiz, James N.; Scott, Kelly; Smith, Harold

2005-01-01

Tool for Research Enhancement Decision Support (TREDS) is a computer program developed to assist managers in ranking options for research aboard the International Space Station (ISS). It could likely also be adapted to perform similar decision-support functions in industrial and academic settings. TREDS provides a ranking of the options, based on a quantifiable assessment of all the relevant programmatic decision factors of benefit, cost, and risk. The computation of the benefit for each option is based on a figure of merit (FOM) for ISS research capacity that incorporates both quantitative and qualitative inputs. Qualitative inputs are gathered and partly quantified by use of the time-tested analytical hierarchical process and used to set weighting factors in the FOM corresponding to priorities determined by the cognizant decision maker(s). Then by use of algorithms developed specifically for this application, TREDS adjusts the projected benefit for each option on the basis of levels of technical implementation, cost, and schedule risk. Based partly on Excel spreadsheets, TREDS provides screens for entering cost, benefit, and risk information. Drop-down boxes are provided for entry of qualitative information. TREDS produces graphical output in multiple formats that can be tailored by users.

Reliability-based econometrics of aerospace structural systems: Design criteria and test options. Ph.D. Thesis - Georgia Inst. of Tech.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, J. M.; Hanagud, S.

1974-01-01

The design criteria and test options for aerospace structural reliability were investigated. A decision methodology was developed for selecting a combination of structural tests and structural design factors. The decision method involves the use of Bayesian statistics and statistical decision theory. Procedures are discussed for obtaining and updating data-based probabilistic strength distributions for aerospace structures when test information is available and for obtaining subjective distributions when data are not available. The techniques used in developing the distributions are explained.

Cognitive influences on risk-seeking by rhesus macaques

PubMed Central

Hayden, Benjamin Y.; Heilbronner, Sarah R.; Nair, Amrita C.; Platt, Michael L.

2009-01-01

Humans and other animals are idiosyncratically sensitive to risk, either preferring or avoiding options having the same value but differing in uncertainty. Many explanations for risk sensitivity rely on the non-linear shape of a hypothesized utility curve. Because such models do not place any importance on uncertainty per se, utility curve-based accounts predict indifference between risky and riskless options that offer the same distribution of rewards. Here we show that monkeys strongly prefer uncertain gambles to alternating rewards with the same payoffs, demonstrating that uncertainty itself contributes to the appeal of risky options. Based on prior observations, we hypothesized that the appeal of the risky option is enhanced by the salience of the potential jackpot. To test this, we subtly manipulated payoffs in a second gambling task. We found that monkeys are more sensitive to small changes in the size of the large reward than to equivalent changes in the size of the small reward, indicating that they attend preferentially to the jackpots. Together, these results challenge utility curve-based accounts of risk sensitivity, and suggest that psychological factors, such as outcome salience and uncertainty itself, contribute to risky decision-making. PMID:19844596

Maximizing resources in the local treatment of prostate cancer: A summary of cost-effectiveness studies.

PubMed

Muralidhar, Vinayak; Nguyen, Paul L

2017-02-01

Prostate cancer is a common diagnosis with several treatment options for the newly diagnosed patient, including radiation, surgery, active surveillance, and watchful waiting. Although tailoring of treatment to individual patient needs is an important goal, the recent passage of the Affordable Care Act has placed renewed interest in cost containment and cost-effectiveness. We sought to conduct a literature review of recent US-based studies to analyze the cost-effectiveness of initial local treatments for localized prostate cancer. We conducted a systematic literature search through PubMed, the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, and manual cross-referencing of articles. We identified US-based studies with cost analyses starting in 2005 that studied the cost-effectiveness of initial local treatments for localized prostate cancer (surgery, radiation, or observation). There were eight studies that met our inclusion and exclusion criteria. Most studies took the cost perspective of Medicare, and two studies also considered the societal cost in terms of lost patient time. Most studies also used a Markov model with inputs based on the available literature for the effectiveness and toxicity of the different treatment options. The radiation-focused studies tended to find brachytherapy (BT) or stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) to be more cost-effective than intensity-modulated radiation therapy or proton beam therapy. These findings were primarily based on the lower cost of SBRT or BT with roughly equal efficacy and toxicity. The two studies focused on surgery found surgery to be more cost effective than intensity-modulated radiation therapy, at least for low-risk disease, and one study found BT to be more cost-effective than surgery, and watchful waiting to be the most cost-effective option overall. Cost-effectiveness analysis is important because it helps patients, physicians, and policymakers make quantitatively-based decisions, which balance treatment efficacy, toxicity, and costs. Significant methodological heterogeneity in the studies we found limit the ability to compare their results directly, but most found that for favorable-risk prostate cancer, shorter or simpler treatments tended to be more cost-effective, including no treatment (watchful waiting) in one study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patient Perceptions About Prediabetes and Preferences for Diabetes Prevention.

PubMed

O'Brien, Matthew J; Moran, Margaret R; Tang, Joyce W; Vargas, Maria C; Talen, Mary; Zimmermann, Laura J; Ackermann, Ronald T; Kandula, Namratha R

2016-12-01

The purpose of this study was to explore how adults with prediabetes perceive their risk of developing diabetes and examine their preferences for evidence-based treatment options to prevent diabetes. A qualitative study was conducted in 2 large Midwest primary care practices, involving in-depth semistructured interviews with 35 adult patients with prediabetes. This ethnically diverse (77% nonwhite) sample of middle-aged primary care patients exhibited multiple diabetes risk factors. Knowledge gaps about prediabetes and its medical management were pervasive. Most patients overestimated the risk of developing diabetes and were not familiar with evidence-based treatment options for prediabetes. They suggested that receiving brief, yet specific information about these topics during the study interview motivated them to act. The majority of participants considered both intensive lifestyle intervention and metformin acceptable treatment options. Many preferred initial treatment with intensive lifestyle intervention but would take metformin if their efforts at lifestyle change failed and their primary care physician recommended it. Some participants expressed wanting to combine both treatments. This qualitative study highlights potential opportunities to promote patient-centered dialogue about prediabetes in primary care settings. Providing patients specific information about the risk of developing diabetes and evidence-based treatment options to prevent or delay its onset may encourage action. Physicians' prediabetes counseling efforts should be informed by the finding that most patients consider both intensive lifestyle intervention and metformin acceptable treatment options. © 2016 The Author(s).

A risk-based decision support framework for selection of appropriate safety measure system for underground coal mines.

PubMed

Samantra, Chitrasen; Datta, Saurav; Mahapatra, Siba Sankar

2017-03-01

In the context of underground coal mining industry, the increased economic issues regarding implementation of additional safety measure systems, along with growing public awareness to ensure high level of workers safety, have put great pressure on the managers towards finding the best solution to ensure safe as well as economically viable alternative selection. Risk-based decision support system plays an important role in finding such solutions amongst candidate alternatives with respect to multiple decision criteria. Therefore, in this paper, a unified risk-based decision-making methodology has been proposed for selecting an appropriate safety measure system in relation to an underground coal mining industry with respect to multiple risk criteria such as financial risk, operating risk, and maintenance risk. The proposed methodology uses interval-valued fuzzy set theory for modelling vagueness and subjectivity in the estimates of fuzzy risk ratings for making appropriate decision. The methodology is based on the aggregative fuzzy risk analysis and multi-criteria decision making. The selection decisions are made within the context of understanding the total integrated risk that is likely to incur while adapting the particular safety system alternative. Effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated through a real-time case study. The result in the context of final priority ranking is seemed fairly consistent.

The effectiveness of massage therapy for the treatment of nonspecific low back pain: a systematic review of systematic reviews

PubMed Central

Kumar, Saravana; Beaton, Kate; Hughes, Tricia

2013-01-01

Introduction The last decade has seen a growth in the utilization of complementary and alternative medicine therapies, and one of the most popular and sought-after complementary and alternative medicine therapies for nonspecific low back pain is massage. Massage may often be perceived as a safe therapeutic modality without any significant risks or side effects. However, despite its popularity, there continues to be ongoing debate on the effectiveness of massage in treating nonspecific low back pain. With a rapidly evolving research evidence base and access to innovative means of synthesizing evidence, it is time to reinvestigate this issue. Methods A systematic, step-by-step approach, underpinned by best practice in reviewing the literature, was utilized as part of the methodology of this umbrella review. A systematic search was conducted in the following databases: Embase, MEDLINE, AMED, ICONDA, Academic Search Premier, Australia/New Zealand Reference Centre, CINAHL, HealthSource, SPORTDiscus, PubMed, The Cochrane Library, Scopus, Web of Knowledge/Web of Science, PsycINFO, and ProQuest Nursing and Allied Health Source, investigating systematic reviews and meta-analyses from January 2000 to December 2012, and restricted to English-language documents. Methodological quality of included reviews was undertaken using the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine critical appraisal tool. Results Nine systematic reviews were found. The methodological quality of the systematic reviews varied (from poor to excellent) although, overall, the primary research informing these systematic reviews was generally considered to be weak quality. The findings indicate that massage may be an effective treatment option when compared to placebo and some active treatment options (such as relaxation), especially in the short term. There is conflicting and contradictory findings for the effectiveness of massage therapy for the treatment of nonspecific low back pain when compared against other manual therapies (such as mobilization), standard medical care, and acupuncture. Conclusion There is an emerging body of evidence, albeit small, that supports the effectiveness of massage therapy for the treatment of non-specific low back pain in the short term. Due to common methodological flaws in the primary research, which informed the systematic reviews, recommendations arising from this evidence base should be interpreted with caution. PMID:24043951

Study on financial risk towards individual investor as strategy to improve urban community empowerment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leon, F. M.; Aprilia, A.

2018-01-01

Investor will be always influenced by its risk tolerance when investing, each investor has own risk tolerance that differ to another, although this still being questioned until now. This research aimed to know the influence of demography factor in distinguish and classify Financial Risk Tolerance (FRT) and Financial Risk Taking Behavior (FRB) to individual investor. Methodology in this research is data that used as primary data which distributed by offline and online. The sample in this research is 642 respondents in Jakarta. Logistic regression is analyze method that used in this research. The research found that there is influence of gender, marital, status, education and income level to Financial Risk Tolerance (FRT) and Financial Risk Taking Behavior (FRB). For FRT significantly 0.000 for gender and marital status; 0.010 for education and 0.001 for income level. Whereas for FRB significantly 0.000 for gender; 0.003 for marital status and 0.010 for education level. The research contribution is crucial for financial advisor to notice the characteristic investor based on demography factor such as gender, marital, status, education level and income level. Therefore, this research able to give optional decision for appropriate investment to clients as ones of strategy to improve urban community empowerment.

Risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option.

PubMed

Manap, Norpadzlihatun; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

2014-10-15

The aim of this study was to develop a risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option. Descriptions using case studies of the newly integrated, holistic and staged framework were followed. The first stage utilized the historical dredging monitoring data and the contamination level in media data into Ecological Risk Assessment phases, which have been altered for benefits in cost, time and simplicity. How Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used to analyze and prioritize dredging areas based on environmental, socio-economic and managerial criteria was described for the next stage. The results from MCDA will be integrated into Ecological Risk Assessment to characterize the degree of contamination in the prioritized areas. The last stage was later described using these findings and analyzed using MCDA, in order to identify the best sediment dredging option, accounting for the economic, environmental and technical aspects of dredging, which is beneficial for dredging and sediment management industries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A System Dynamics Approach for the Selection of Contaminated Land Management Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKnight, U. S.; Kuebert, M.; Finkel, M.; Bieg, M.

2006-12-01

Large-scale contaminated land and groundwater is a widespread problem that can severely impact human health, the environment and the economy at many urban sites all over the world. Usually a considerable number of potential management solutions exist at each of these sites. A detailed investigation of all these options, however, is not economically feasible which makes streamlining of the planning and decision process a mandatory requirement. Decisions to be taken should be made as early as possible in order to reduce expenditures on site investigation. Therefore, a tiered decision-making procedure is required, including (i) identification and prioritization of focal areas of risks, (ii) feasibility screening of remediation targets and available management alternatives to narrow the range of possible options for (iii) subsequent detailed investigations of only a select group of preferable options. For each of these elements, tailored decision and investigation concepts are required. These concepts and applied methods should be specifically adapted to the type and scale of the particular decision to be taken- more target-oriented, cost-efficient investigation programs, as well as model-based assessment methods are needed (Ruegner et al. 2006). A gap exists within this framework with respect to preliminary assessment methodologies representing the first decision level. To fill this gap, a new system dynamics approach has been developed that represents the system of source- pathway-receptor sequences by means of a mass flux model. The dynamics are governed by the effects of possible remedial actions, which are described as mass flux change over time (Serapiglia et al. 2005). This approach has been implemented in the preliminary evaluation tool CARO-plus (Cost-efficiency Assessment of Remediation Options) that models the effects of potential remedial actions, including tackling the contaminant source and managing the groundwater plume. The model represents the causal relationships that exist between the state of the system, the effects of the technologies and their costs, and may considerably impact the outcome to be predicted. The tool enables a fast and effective "screening" of management scenarios using simplified approaches (analytical models). Replacing the concept of total cleanup of sites based on concentration standards, the evaluation tool contains risk modules that describe exposure pathways, i.e. transfer of contaminants from groundwater to the receptor "human being", in accordance to MEPAS (Strenge & Chamberlain 1995). As multiple lines of evidence may apply, the effects of remediation options can be analyzed on the basis of contaminant mass flux, concentrations, and/or risk indices (carcinogenic/noncarcinogenic). Costs are calculated in terms of net present values. Uncertainty is taken into account using Monte-Carlo sensitivity analyses. In the presentation, examples will be shown for how the proposed approach helps to pre-select compatible remediation options by giving an overview to the following set of questions: (i) what is the time scale for risks expected at a particular site, (ii) does the scenario reduce/control risk at the receptor, (iii) is the scenario compatible with cleanup objectives (e.g. in the case that concentration standards are still required for specific compounds present at a site), (iv) does the scenario satisfy cost objectives and can therefore be considered financially viable, (v) is the scenario acceptable to regulators and the community, and (vi) what factors are most critical to the decision-making process.

Examination of commercial aviation operational energy conservation strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Forty-seven fuel conservation strategies are identified for commercial aviation and the fuel saving potential, costs, constraints, and current implementation levels of these options are examined. This assessment is based on a comprehensive review of published data and discussions with representatives from industry and government. Analyses were performed to quantify the fuel saving potential of each option, and to assess the fuel savings achieved to date by the airline industry. Those options requiring further government support for option implementation were identified, rated, and ranked in accordance with a rating methodology developed in the study. Finally, recommendations are made for future governmentmore » efforts in the area of fuel conservation in commercial aviation.« less

Analysis of potential trade-offs in regulation of disinfection by-products

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cromwell, J.E.; Zhang, X.; Regli, S.

1992-11-01

Executive Order 12291 requires the preparation of a Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) on all new major federal regulations. The goal of an RIA is to develop and organize information on benefits, costs, and economic impacts so as to clarify trade-offs among alternative regulatory options. This paper outlines explicit methodology for assessing the technical potential for risk-risk tradeoffs. The strategies used to cope with complexities and uncertainties in developing the Disinfection By-Products Regulatory Analysis Model are explained. Results are presented and discussed in light of uncertainties, and in light of the analytical requirements for regulatory impact analysis.

Family Communication, Risk Perception and Cancer Knowledge of Young Adults from BRCA1/2 Families: a Systematic Review.

PubMed

Young, Alison L; Butow, Phyllis N; Vetsch, Janine; Quinn, Veronica F; Patenaude, Andrea F; Tucker, Katherine M; Wakefield, Claire E

2017-12-01

Understanding challenges in familial communication of cancer risk has informed genetic service delivery. Parent-child interactions have received considerable attention, but few studies focus on young adulthood experiences within BRCA1/2 families. Young adults are approaching, or at a life stage where awareness of hereditary cancer risk is vital for informed choice of risk management options. This review assesses family communication, risk perception and cancer knowledge held by 18-40 year old individuals who have a parent with a BRCA1/2 gene mutation or carry the gene mutation themselves. Thirteen papers met the inclusion criteria. One utilized a 'mixed methods' methodology and the remaining used a qualitative approach. Findings were synthesized into themes and reported narratively. In general, parents are communicating openly about genetic risk with young adult offspring, but there is evidence that some young adults are withholding information from their parents about their own test results. Risk perception is influenced by a family history of cancer, childbearing plans and health providers' advice. Misconceptions about genetic risk appear to be common and gaps in hereditary cancer knowledge are evident. It is unclear whether incorrect knowledge was passed from parents to offspring. Health providers need to provide developmentally appropriate services for emerging adults (18-25 years old), with particular support in navigating through risk management options.

A Protocol-Based Decision for Choosing a Proper Surgical Treatment Option for Carotid Artery Stenosis.

PubMed

Jang, E-Wook; Chung, Joonho; Seo, Kwon-Duk; Suh, Sang Hyun; Kim, Yong Bae; Lee, Kyung-Yul

2015-06-01

There are two established surgical treatment options for carotid artery stenosis. Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) has been accepted as a gold standard for surgical treatment while carotid artery stenting (CAS) has recently become an alternative option. Each treatment option has advantages and disadvantages for the treatment outcomes. We propose a protocol for selection of a proper surgical treatment option for carotid artery stenosis. A total of 192 published articles on management of carotid artery stenosis were reviewed. Preoperatively considerable factors which had been repeatedly noted in those articles for the risk/benefits of CEA or CAS were selected. According to those factors, a protocol with four categories was established. CEA or CAS is indicated when the patient has a symptomatic stenosis ≥ 50%, or when the patient has an asymptomatic stenosis ≥ 80%. Each treatment option has absolute indications and favorable indications. Each absolute indication is scored with three points, and each favorable indication, one point. Based on the highest scores, a proper treatment option (CEA or CAS) is selected. We have been treating patients according to this protocol and evaluating the outcomes of our protocol-based decision because this protocol might be helpful in assessment of risk/benefit for selection of a proper surgical treatment option in patients with carotid artery stenosis.

Disposal methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedlander, Alan

1991-01-01

A number of disposal options for space nuclear reactors and the associated risks, mostly in the long term, based on probabilities of Earth reentry are discussed. The results are based on a five year study that was conducted between 1978 and 1983 on the space disposal of high level nuclear waste. The study provided assessment of disposal options, stability of disposal or storage orbits, and assessment of the long term risks of Earth reentry of the nuclear waste.

Joint protection and hand exercises for hand osteoarthritis: an economic evaluation comparing methods for the analysis of factorial trials

PubMed Central

Oppong, Raymond; Nicholls, Elaine; Whitehurst, David G. T.; Hill, Susan; Hammond, Alison; Hay, Elaine M.; Dziedzic, Krysia

2015-01-01

Objectives. Evidence regarding the cost-effectiveness of joint protection and hand exercises for the management of hand OA is not well established. The primary aim of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness (cost-utility) of these management options. In addition, given the absence of consensus regarding the conduct of economic evaluation alongside factorial trials, we compare different analytical methodologies. Methods. A trial-based economic evaluation to assess the cost-utility of joint protection only, hand exercises only and joint protection plus hand exercises compared with leaflet and advice was undertaken over a 12 month period from a UK National Health Service perspective. Patient-level mean costs and mean quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated for each trial arm. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were constructed. The base case analysis used a within-the-table analysis methodology. Two further methods were explored: the at-the-margins approach and a regression-based approach with or without an interaction term. Results. Mean costs (QALYs) were £58.46 (s.d. 0.662) for leaflet and advice, £92.12 (s.d. 0.659) for joint protection, £64.51 (s.d. 0.681) for hand exercises and £112.38 (s.d. 0.658) for joint protection plus hand exercises. In the base case, hand exercises were the cost-effective option, with an ICER of £318 per QALY gained. Hand exercises remained the most cost-effective management strategy when adopting alternative methodological approaches. Conclusion. This is the first trial evaluating the cost-effectiveness of occupational therapy-supported approaches to self-management for hand OA. Our findings showed that hand exercises were the most cost-effective option. PMID:25339642

Spatially explicit risk approach for multi-hazard assessment and management in marine environment: The case study of the Adriatic Sea.

PubMed

Furlan, Elisa; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2018-03-15

In the last few decades the health of marine ecosystems has been progressively endangered by the anthropogenic presence. Natural and human-made pressures, as well as climate change effects, are posing increasing threats on marine areas, triggering alteration of biological, chemical and physical processes. Planning of marine areas has become a challenge for decision makers involved in the design of sustainable management options. In order to address threats posed by climate drivers in combination with local to regional anthropogenic pressures affecting marine ecosystems and activities, a multi-hazard assessment methodology was developed and applied to the Adriatic Sea for the reference scenario 2000-2015. Through a four-stages process based on the consecutive analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk the methodology allows a semi-quantitative evaluation of the relative risk from anthropogenic and natural sources to multiple endpoints, thus supporting the identification and ranking of areas and targets more likely to be at risk. Resulting output showed that the higher relative hazard scores are linked to exogenic pressures (e.g. sea surface temperature variation) while the lower ones resulted from endogenic and more localized stressors (e.g. abrasion, nutrient input). Relatively very high scores were observed for vulnerability over the whole case study for almost all the considered pressures, showing seagrasses meadows, maërl and coral beds as the most susceptible targets. The approach outlined in this study provides planners and decision makers a quick-screening tool to evaluate progress towards attaining a good environmental status and to identify marine areas where management actions and adaptation strategies would be best targeted. Moreover, by focusing on risks induced by land-based drivers, resulting output can support the design of infrastructures for reducing pressures on the sea, contributing to improve the land-sea interface management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

2018-04-01

There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

Risk-Based Explosive Safety Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-30

safety siting of energetic liquids and propellants can be greatly aided by the use of risk-based methodologies. The low probability of exposed...liquids or propellants . 15. SUBJECT TERMS N/A 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 19a. NAME OF...of energetic liquids and propellants can be greatly aided by the use of risk-based methodologies. The low probability of exposed personnel and the

Life cycle assessment integrated with thermodynamic analysis of bio-fuel options for solid oxide fuel cells.

PubMed

Lin, Jiefeng; Babbitt, Callie W; Trabold, Thomas A

2013-01-01

A methodology that integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) with thermodynamic analysis is developed and applied to evaluate the environmental impacts of producing biofuels from waste biomass, including biodiesel from waste cooking oil, ethanol from corn stover, and compressed natural gas from municipal solid wastes. Solid oxide fuel cell-based auxiliary power units using bio-fuel as the hydrogen precursor enable generation of auxiliary electricity for idling heavy-duty trucks. Thermodynamic analysis is applied to evaluate the fuel conversion efficiency and determine the amount of fuel feedstock needed to generate a unit of electrical power. These inputs feed into an LCA that compares energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of different fuel pathways. Results show that compressed natural gas from municipal solid wastes is an optimal bio-fuel option for SOFC-APU applications in New York State. However, this methodology can be regionalized within the U.S. or internationally to account for different fuel feedstock options. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial planning using probabilistic flood maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfonso, Leonardo; Mukolwe, Micah; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2015-04-01

Probabilistic flood maps account for uncertainty in flood inundation modelling and convey a degree of certainty in the outputs. Major sources of uncertainty include input data, topographic data, model structure, observation data and parametric uncertainty. Decision makers prefer less ambiguous information from modellers; this implies that uncertainty is suppressed to yield binary flood maps. Though, suppressing information may potentially lead to either surprise or misleading decisions. Inclusion of uncertain information in the decision making process is therefore desirable and transparent. To this end, we utilise the Prospect theory and information from a probabilistic flood map to evaluate potential decisions. Consequences related to the decisions were evaluated using flood risk analysis. Prospect theory explains how choices are made given options for which probabilities of occurrence are known and accounts for decision makers' characteristics such as loss aversion and risk seeking. Our results show that decision making is pronounced when there are high gains and loss, implying higher payoffs and penalties, therefore a higher gamble. Thus the methodology may be appropriately considered when making decisions based on uncertain information.

MisTec - A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horsham, Gary A. P.

1992-01-01

This structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this kind of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

MisTec: A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horsham, Gary A. P.

1991-01-01

The structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this king of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

The Efficacy of Blue-Green Infrastructure for Pluvial Flood Prevention under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babovic, Filip; Mijic, Ana; Madani, Kaveh

2017-04-01

Urban areas around the world are growing in size and importance; however, cities experience elevated risks of pluvial flooding due to the prevalence of impermeable land surfaces within them. Urban planners and engineers encounter a great deal of uncertainty when planning adaptations to these flood risks, due to the interaction of multiple factors such as climate change and land use change. This leads to conditions of deep uncertainty. Blue-Green (BG) solutions utilise natural vegetation and processes to absorb and retain runoff while providing a host of other social, economic and environmental services. When utilised in conjunction with Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methodologies, BG infrastructure provides a flexible and adaptable method of "no-regret" adaptation; resulting in a practical, economically efficient, and socially acceptable solution for flood risk mitigation. This work presents the methodology for analysing the impact of BG infrastructure in the context of the Adaptation Tipping Points approach to protect against pluvial flood risk in an iterative manner. An economic analysis of the adaptation pathways is also conducted in order to better inform decision-makers on the benefits and costs of the adaptation options presented. The methodology was applied to a case study in the Cranbrook Catchment in the North East of London. Our results show that BG infrastructure performs better under conditions of uncertainty than traditional grey infrastructure.

Options for Hardening FinFETS with Flowable Oxide Between Fins

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

thus hardening by process is needed. Using the methodology of CV measurements on inexpensive experimental blanket oxides we have determined options...NY 10598 Abstract: A methodology using radiation-induced charge measurements by CV techniques on blanket oxides is shown to aid in the choice...of process options for hardening FinFETs. Net positive charge in flowable oxides was reduced by 50 % using a simple non -intrusive process change

76 FR 25390 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-04

... calculates the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (``GVZ''), which is based on the VIX methodology applied to options on the SPDR Gold Trust (``GLD''). The current filing would permit $0.50 strike price intervals for...

Structured identification of response options to address environmental health risks at the Agbogbloshie electronic waste site.

PubMed

Cazabon, Danielle; Fobil, Julius N; Essegbey, George; Basu, Niladri

2017-11-01

Electronic waste (e-waste) is a growing problem across low- and middle-income countries. Agbogbloshie (Accra, Ghana) is among the world's largest and most notorious e-waste sites, with an increasing number of studies documenting a range of environmental health risks. The present study aimed to provide national, regional, and international stakeholders with a summary of expert opinion on the most pressing problems arising from e-waste activities at Agbogbloshie, as well as suggested solutions to address these problems. Structured interviews were performed between April and September 2015 that used a Logical Framework Approach as a scoping exercise to gauge problems and benefits of e-waste recycling, and the Delphi methodology to identify response options. Stakeholders (n = 19) from 15 institutions were interviewed with 2 rounds of a Delphi Poll: open-ended interviews followed by an electronic questionnaire in which experts ranked various proposed response options based on health, environmental, social, and economic benefit and feasibility. The goal was to prioritize potential interventions that would address identified problems at Agbogbloshie. Experts identified the most beneficial and feasible options in decreasing rank order as follows and prefaced by the statement "it is recommended that": 1) there be further research on the health effects; 2) e-waste workers be given appropriate personal protective equipment; 3) the Ministry of the Environment, Science, Technology and Innovation re-visit Ghana's Hazardous Waste Bill; 4) e-waste workers be involved in the planning process of interventions and are be kept informed of any results; and 5) there be increased education and sensitization on hazards related to e-waste for both workers and the general public. These solutions are discussed in relation to ongoing dialogue at the international level concerning e-waste recycling interventions, with strengths and weaknesses examined for the Ghanaian context. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:980-991. ©2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

MULTI-MEDIA MICROBIOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR MUNICIPAL WASTEWATER SLUDGES

EPA Science Inventory

In order to reduce the risk of municipal sludge to acceptable levels, the U.S. EPA has undertaken a regulatory program based on risk assessment and risk management. The key to such a program is the development of a methodology which allows the regulatory agency to quantify the re...

An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials

EPA Science Inventory

There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology ...

A framework for the evidence base to support Health Impact Assessment

PubMed Central

Joffe, M; Mindell, J

2002-01-01

Background: HIA can be used to judge the potential health effects of a policy, programme or project on a population, and the distribution of those effects. Progress has been made in incorporating HIA into routine practice, especially (in the UK) at local level. However, these advances have mainly been restricted to process issues, including policy engagement and community involvement, while the evidence base has been relatively neglected. Relating policies to their impact on health: The key distinctive feature of HIA is that determinants of health are not taken as given, but rather as factors that themselves have determinants. Nine ways are distinguished in which evidence on health and its determinants can be related to policy, and examples are given from the literature. The most complete of these is an analysis of health effects in the context of a comparison of options. A simple model, the policy/risk assessment model (PRAM), is introduced as a framework that relates changes in levels of exposures or other risk factors to changes in health status. This approach allows a distinction to be made between the technical process of HIA and the political process of decision making, which involves lines of accountability. Extension of the PRAM model to complex policy areas and its adaptation to non-quantitative examples are discussed. Issues for the future: A sound evidence base is essential to the long term reputation of HIA. Research gaps are discussed, especially the need for evidence connecting policy options with changes in determinants of health. It is proposed that policy options could be considered as "exposure" variables in research. The methodology needs to be developed in the course of work on specific issues, concentrated in policy areas that are relatively tractable. Conclusions: A system of coordination needs to be established, at national or supranational level, building on existing initiatives. The framework suggested in this paper can be used to collate and evaluate what is already known, both to identify gaps where research is required and to enable an informed judgement to be made about the potential health impacts of policy options. These judgements should be made widely available for policy makers and for those undertaking health impact assessment. PMID:11812813

Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gearhart, Jared Lee; Samberson, Jonell Nicole; Shettigar, Subhasini

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element canmore » be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).« less

Agile methodology selection criteria: IT start-up case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micic, Lj

2017-05-01

Project management in modern IT companies is often based on agile methodologies which have several advantages compared to traditional methodologies such is waterfall. Having in mind that clients sometimes change project during development it is crucial for an IT company to choose carefully which methodology is going to implement and is it going to be mostly based on one or is it going got be combination of several. There are several modern and often used methodologies but among those Scrum, Kanban and XP programming are usually the most common. Sometimes companies use mostly tools and procedures from one but quite often they use some of the combination of those methodologies. Having in mind that those methodologies are just a framework they allow companies to adapt it for their specific projects as well as for other limitations. These methodologies are in limited usage Bosnia but more and more IT companies are starting to use agile methodologies because it is practice and common not just for their clients abroad but also starting to be the only option in order to deliver quality product on time. However it is always challenging which methodology or combination of several companies should implement and how to connect it to its own project, organizational framework and HR management. This paper presents one case study based on local IT start up and delivers solution based on theoretical framework and practical limitations that case company has.

Risk-Based Approach for Microbiological Food Safety Management in the Dairy Industry: The Case of Listeria monocytogenes in Soft Cheese Made from Pasteurized Milk.

PubMed

Tenenhaus-Aziza, Fanny; Daudin, Jean-Jacques; Maffre, Alexandre; Sanaa, Moez

2014-01-01

According to Codex Alimentarius Commission recommendations, management options applied at the process production level should be based on good hygiene practices, HACCP system, and new risk management metrics such as the food safety objective. To follow this last recommendation, the use of quantitative microbiological risk assessment is an appealing approach to link new risk-based metrics to management options that may be applied by food operators. Through a specific case study, Listeria monocytogenes in soft cheese made from pasteurized milk, the objective of the present article is to practically show how quantitative risk assessment could be used to direct potential intervention strategies at different food processing steps. Based on many assumptions, the model developed estimates the risk of listeriosis at the moment of consumption taking into account the entire manufacturing process and potential sources of contamination. From pasteurization to consumption, the amplification of a primo-contamination event of the milk, the fresh cheese or the process environment is simulated, over time, space, and between products, accounting for the impact of management options, such as hygienic operations and sampling plans. A sensitivity analysis of the model will help orientating data to be collected prioritarily for the improvement and the validation of the model. What-if scenarios were simulated and allowed for the identification of major parameters contributing to the risk of listeriosis and the optimization of preventive and corrective measures. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

SCAP: a new methodology for safety management based on feedback from credible accident-probabilistic fault tree analysis system.

PubMed

Khan, F I; Iqbal, A; Ramesh, N; Abbasi, S A

2001-10-12

As it is conventionally done, strategies for incorporating accident--prevention measures in any hazardous chemical process industry are developed on the basis of input from risk assessment. However, the two steps-- risk assessment and hazard reduction (or safety) measures--are not linked interactively in the existing methodologies. This prevents a quantitative assessment of the impacts of safety measures on risk control. We have made an attempt to develop a methodology in which risk assessment steps are interactively linked with implementation of safety measures. The resultant system tells us the extent of reduction of risk by each successive safety measure. It also tells based on sophisticated maximum credible accident analysis (MCAA) and probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) whether a given unit can ever be made 'safe'. The application of the methodology has been illustrated with a case study.

Strategic Analysis Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cirillo, William M.; Earle, Kevin D.; Goodliff, Kandyce E.; Reeves, J. D.; Stromgren, Chel; Andraschko, Mark R.; Merrill, R. Gabe

2008-01-01

NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

Human health tradeoffs in wellhead drinking water treatment: Comparing exposure reduction to embedded life cycle risks.

PubMed

Gifford, Mac; Chester, Mikhail; Hristovski, Kiril; Westerhoff, Paul

2018-01-01

Treatment of drinking water decreases human health risks by reducing pollutants, but the required materials, chemicals, and energy emit pollutants and increase health risks. We explored human carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic disease tradeoffs of water treatment by comparing pollutant dose-response curves against life cycle burden using USEtox methodology. An illustrative wellhead sorbent groundwater treatment system removing hexavalent chromium or pentavalent arsenic serving 3200 people was studied. Reducing pollutant concentrations in drinking water from 20 μg L -1 to 10 μg L -1 avoided 37 potential cancer cases and 64 potential non-cancer disease cases. Human carcinogenicity embedded in treatment was 0.2-5.3 cases, and non-carcinogenic toxicity was 0.2-14.3 cases, depending on technology and degree of treatment. Embedded toxicity impacts from treating Cr(VI) using strong-base anion exchange were <10% of those from using weak base anion exchange. Acidification and neutralization contributed >90% of the toxicity impacts for treatment options requiring pH control. In scenarios where benefits exceeded burdens, tradeoffs still existed. Benefits are experienced by a local population but burdens are born externally where the materials and energy are produced, thus exporting the health risks. Even when burdens clearly exceeded benefits, cost considerations may still drive selecting a detrimental treatment level or technology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overset Grid Methods Applied to Nonlinear Potential Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holst, Terry; Kwak, Dochan (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The objectives of this viewgraph presentation are to develop Chimera-based potential methodology which is compatible with overflow and overflow infrastructure, creating options for an advanced problem solving environment and to significantly reduce turnaround time for aerodynamic analysis and design (primarily cruise conditions).

Adult Attitudes Toward the Military: Poll Two

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-04-01

military service, specifically, and (2) develop research-based communications strategies and recommendations for each market . The Defense Manpower...military, their recommendations to youth regarding post-high school options, and research-based message strategies that would resonate with each market ...of Defense’s recruitment advertising and market research programs. • The Research Methodology section provides details on the design of the

An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials.

PubMed

Tolaymat, Thabet; El Badawy, Amro; Sequeira, Reynold; Genaidy, Ash

2015-11-15

There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology to assess the potential risks of engineered nanomaterials. To achieve the study objective, two major tasks are accomplished, knowledge synthesis and algorithmic computational methodology. The knowledge synthesis task is designed to capture "what is known" and to outline the gaps in knowledge from ENMs risk perspective. The algorithmic computational methodology is geared toward the provision of decisions and an understanding of the risks of ENMs along different endpoints for the constituents of the SEE complex adaptive system. The approach presented herein allows for addressing the formidable task of assessing the implications and risks of exposure to ENMs, with the long term goal to build a decision-support system to guide key stakeholders in the SEE system towards building sustainable ENMs and nano-enabled products. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Meteorological risks are drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne; Van de Vijver, Hans; Vanwindekens, Frédéric; de Frutos Cachorro, Julia; Verspecht, Ann; Planchon, Viviane; Buyse, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Agricultural crop production is to a great extent determined by weather conditions. The research hypothesis is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management. The methodology comprised five major parts: the hazard, its impact on different agro-ecosystems, vulnerability, risk management and risk communication. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory was used to model annual maxima of meteorological variables based on a location-, scale- and shape-parameter that determine the center of the distribution, the deviation of the location-parameter and the upper tail decay, respectively. Spatial interpolation of GEV-derived return levels resulted in spatial temperature extremes, precipitation deficits and wet periods. The temporal overlap between extreme weather conditions and sensitive periods in the agro-ecosystem was realised using a bio-physically based modelling framework that couples phenology, a soil water balance and crop growth. 20-year return values for drought and waterlogging during different crop stages were related to arable yields. The method helped quantify agricultural production risks and rate both weather and crop-based agricultural insurance. The spatial extent of vulnerability is developed on different layers of geo-information to include meteorology, soil-landscapes, crop cover and management. Vulnerability of agroecosystems was mapped based on rules set by experts' knowledge and implemented by Fuzzy Inference System modelling and Geographical Information System tools. The approach was applied for cropland vulnerability to heavy rain and grassland vulnerability to drought. The level of vulnerability and resilience of an agro-ecosystem was also determined by risk management which differed across sectors and farm types. A calibrated agro-economic model demonstrated a marked influence of climate adapted land allocation and crop management on individual utility. The "chain of risk" approach allowed for investigating the hypothesis that meteorological risks act as drivers for agricultural innovation. Risk types were quantified in terms of probability and distribution, and further distinguished according to production type. Examples of strategies and options were provided at field, farm and policy level using different modelling methods.

System Concepts for Affordable Fission Surface Power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, Lee; Poston, David; Qualls, Louis

2008-01-01

This paper presents an overview of an affordable Fission Surface Power (FSP) system that could be used for NASA applications on the Moon and Mars. The proposed FSP system uses a low temperature, uranium dioxide-fueled, liquid metal-cooled fission reactor coupled to free-piston Stirling converters. The concept was determined by a 12 month NASA/DOE study that examined design options and development strategies based on affordability and risk. The system is considered a low development risk based on the use of terrestrial-derived reactor technology, high efficiency power conversion, and conventional materials. The low-risk approach was selected over other options that could offer higher performance and/or lower mass.

Experiences using Visualization Techniques to Present Requirements, Risks to Them, and Options for Risk Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Kiper, James D.; Menzies, Tim

2006-01-01

For several years we have been employing a risk-based decision process to guide development and application of advanced technologies, and for research and technology portfolio planning. The process is supported by custom software, in which visualization plays an important role. During requirements gathering, visualization is used to help scrutinize the status (completeness, extent) of the information. During decision making based on the gathered information, visualization is used to help decisionmakers understand the space of options and their consequences. In this paper we summarize the visualization capabilities that we have employed, indicating when and how they have proven useful.

The comparison of various approach to evaluation erosion risks and design control erosion measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapicka, Jiri

2015-04-01

In the present is in the Czech Republic one methodology how to compute and compare erosion risks. This methodology contain also method to design erosion control measures. The base of this methodology is Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and their result long-term average annual rate of erosion (G). This methodology is used for landscape planners. Data and statistics from database of erosion events in the Czech Republic shows that many troubles and damages are from local episodes of erosion events. An extent of these events and theirs impact are conditional to local precipitation events, current plant phase and soil conditions. These erosion events can do troubles and damages on agriculture land, municipally property and hydro components and even in a location is from point of view long-term average annual rate of erosion in good conditions. Other way how to compute and compare erosion risks is episodes approach. In this paper is presented the compare of various approach to compute erosion risks. The comparison was computed to locality from database of erosion events on agricultural land in the Czech Republic where have been records two erosion events. The study area is a simple agriculture land without any barriers that can have high influence to water flow and soil sediment transport. The computation of erosion risks (for all methodology) was based on laboratory analysis of soil samples which was sampled on study area. Results of the methodology USLE, MUSLE and results from mathematical model Erosion 3D have been compared. Variances of the results in space distribution of the places with highest soil erosion where compared and discussed. Other part presents variances of design control erosion measures where their design was done on based different methodology. The results shows variance of computed erosion risks which was done by different methodology. These variances can start discussion about different approach how compute and evaluate erosion risks in areas with different importance.

A GIS-based human health risk assessment for urban green space planning--an example from Grugliasco (Italy).

PubMed

Poggio, Laura; Vrscaj, Borut

2009-11-15

The need to develop approaches for risk-based management of soil contamination, as well as the integration of the assessment of the human health risk (HHR) due to the soil contamination in the urban planning procedures has been the subject of recent attention of scientific literature and policy makers. The spatial analysis of environmental data offers multiple advantages for studying soil contamination and HHR assessment, facilitating the decision making process. The aim of this study was to explore the possibilities and benefits of spatial implementation of a quantitative HHR assessment methodology for a planning case in a typical urban environment where the soil is contaminated. The study area is located in the city of Grugliasco a part of the Turin (Italy) metropolitan area. The soils data were derived from a site specific soil survey and the land-use data from secondary sources. In the first step the soil contamination data were geo-statistically analysed and a spatial soil contamination data risk modelling procedure designed. In order to spatially assess the HHR computer routines were developed using GIS raster tools. The risk was evaluated for several different land uses for the planned naturalistic park area. The HHR assessment indicated that the contamination of soils with heavy metals in the area is not sufficient to induce considerable health problems due to typical human behaviour within the variety of urban land uses. An exception is the possibility of direct ingestion of contaminated soil which commonly occurs in playgrounds. The HHR evaluation in a planning case in the Grugliasco Municipality confirms the suitability of the selected planning option. The construction of the naturalistic park presents one solution for reducing the impacts of soil contamination on the health of citizens. The spatial HHR evaluation using GIS techniques is a diagnostic procedure for assessing the impacts of urban soil contamination, with which one can verify planning options, and provides an important step in the integration of human health protection within urban planning procedures.

Manned Mars mission cost estimate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamaker, Joseph; Smith, Keith

1986-01-01

The potential costs of several options of a manned Mars mission are examined. A cost estimating methodology based primarily on existing Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) parametric cost models is summarized. These models include the MSFC Space Station Cost Model and the MSFC Launch Vehicle Cost Model as well as other modes and techniques. The ground rules and assumptions of the cost estimating methodology are discussed and cost estimates presented for six potential mission options which were studied. The estimated manned Mars mission costs are compared to the cost of the somewhat analogous Apollo Program cost after normalizing the Apollo cost to the environment and ground rules of the manned Mars missions. It is concluded that a manned Mars mission, as currently defined, could be accomplished for under $30 billion in 1985 dollars excluding launch vehicle development and mission operations.

Sex differences in the use of social information emerge under conditions of risk.

PubMed

Brand, Charlotte O; Brown, Gillian R; Cross, Catharine P

2018-01-01

Social learning provides an effective route to gaining up-to-date information, particularly when information is costly to obtain asocially. Theoretical work predicts that the willingness to switch between using asocial and social sources of information will vary between individuals according to their risk tolerance. We tested the prediction that, where there are sex differences in risk tolerance, altering the variance of the payoffs of using asocial and social information differentially influences the probability of social information use by sex. In a computer-based task that involved building a virtual spaceship, men and women ( N  = 88) were given the option of using either asocial or social sources of information to improve their performance. When the asocial option was risky (i.e., the participant's score could markedly increase or decrease) and the social option was safe (i.e., their score could slightly increase or remain the same), women, but not men, were more likely to use the social option than the asocial option. In all other conditions, both women and men preferentially used the asocial option to a similar degree. We therefore found both a sex difference in risk aversion and a sex difference in the preference for social information when relying on asocial information was risky, consistent with the hypothesis that levels of risk-aversion influence the use of social information.

Sex differences in the use of social information emerge under conditions of risk

PubMed Central

Brand, Charlotte O.; Brown, Gillian R.

2018-01-01

Social learning provides an effective route to gaining up-to-date information, particularly when information is costly to obtain asocially. Theoretical work predicts that the willingness to switch between using asocial and social sources of information will vary between individuals according to their risk tolerance. We tested the prediction that, where there are sex differences in risk tolerance, altering the variance of the payoffs of using asocial and social information differentially influences the probability of social information use by sex. In a computer-based task that involved building a virtual spaceship, men and women (N = 88) were given the option of using either asocial or social sources of information to improve their performance. When the asocial option was risky (i.e., the participant’s score could markedly increase or decrease) and the social option was safe (i.e., their score could slightly increase or remain the same), women, but not men, were more likely to use the social option than the asocial option. In all other conditions, both women and men preferentially used the asocial option to a similar degree. We therefore found both a sex difference in risk aversion and a sex difference in the preference for social information when relying on asocial information was risky, consistent with the hypothesis that levels of risk-aversion influence the use of social information. PMID:29312821

Multi-criteria decision assessments using Subjective Logic: Methodology and the case of urban water strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moglia, Magnus; Sharma, Ashok K.; Maheepala, Shiroma

2012-07-01

SummaryPlanning of regional and urban water resources, and in particular with Integrated Urban Water Management approaches, often considers inter-relationships between human uses of water, the health of the natural environment as well as the cost of various management strategies. Decision makers hence typically need to consider a combination of social, environmental and economic goals. The types of strategies employed can include water efficiency measures, water sensitive urban design, stormwater management, or catchment management. Therefore, decision makers need to choose between different scenarios and to evaluate them against a number of criteria. This type of problem has a discipline devoted to it, i.e. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, which has often been applied in water management contexts. This paper describes the application of Subjective Logic in a basic Bayesian Network to a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis problem. By doing this, it outlines a novel methodology that explicitly incorporates uncertainty and information reliability. The application of the methodology to a known case study context allows for exploration. By making uncertainty and reliability of assessments explicit, it allows for assessing risks of various options, and this may help in alleviating cognitive biases and move towards a well formulated risk management policy.

Risk ranking of LANL nuclear material storage containers for repackaging prioritization.

PubMed

Smith, Paul H; Jordan, Hans; Hoffman, Jenifer A; Eller, P Gary; Balkey, Simon

2007-05-01

Safe handling and storage of nuclear material at U.S. Department of Energy facilities relies on the use of robust containers to prevent container breaches and subsequent worker contamination and uptake. The U.S. Department of Energy has no uniform requirements for packaging and storage of nuclear materials other than those declared excess and packaged to DOE-STD-3013-2000. This report describes a methodology for prioritizing a large inventory of nuclear material containers so that the highest risk containers are repackaged first. The methodology utilizes expert judgment to assign respirable fractions and reactivity factors to accountable levels of nuclear material at Los Alamos National Laboratory. A relative risk factor is assigned to each nuclear material container based on a calculated dose to a worker due to a failed container barrier and a calculated probability of container failure based on material reactivity and container age. This risk-based methodology is being applied at LANL to repackage the highest risk materials first and, thus, accelerate the reduction of risk to nuclear material handlers.

Land use and desertification in the Binh Thuan Province of Southeastern Vietnam: mitigation and adaptation options now and under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, A.; Le Trinh, H.; Pham Ha, L.; Hens, L.

2012-04-01

Desertification and drought affects approximately 300,000 ha of land in the southeastern provinces of Vietnam, much of which is located on agricultural land and forest in the Binh Thuan Province. The methodology for analysing mitigation and adaptation options follows a chain of risk approach that includes a spatio-temporal characterisation of (1) the hazard, (2) the bio-physical and socio-economic impact, (3) the vulnerability to different activities as related to land uses, and (4) risk management options. The present forms of land degradation include sand dune formation and severe erosion (63%), degradation due to laterisation (14%), salinisation (13%), and rock outcrops (10%). The climate is characterized by a distinct dry season with high temperatures, a lot of sunshine and a warm land wind resulting in high evapotranspiration rates. Delays in the onset of the rainy season, e.g. with 20 days in 2010, cause a shift in the growing season. Damages due to drought are estimated at hundreds billion VND (US 1 = VND 20,8900) and contribute to poverty in the rural areas. The current risk-exposure is exacerbated further by climate change. Combined effects of desertification and climate change cause increased degradation of natural resources including land cover. At the same time land use changes are crucial in influencing responses to climate change and desertification. A further SWOT analysis combined with spatio-temporal analysis for each of the major sectors (agriculture, forestry and nature protection, urban and rural development, water resources and fisheries, industry) demonstrates a series of adaptation and mitigation options. Land is a valuable and limited resource. An integrated approach to land use and management is therefore essential to combat environmental hazards such as desertification and climate change.

A multi-criteria analysis of options for energy recovery from municipal solid waste in India and the UK.

PubMed

Yap, H Y; Nixon, J D

2015-12-01

Energy recovery from municipal solid waste plays a key role in sustainable waste management and energy security. However, there are numerous technologies that vary in suitability for different economic and social climates. This study sets out to develop and apply a multi-criteria decision making methodology that can be used to evaluate the trade-offs between the benefits, opportunities, costs and risks of alternative energy from waste technologies in both developed and developing countries. The technologies considered are mass burn incineration, refuse derived fuel incineration, gasification, anaerobic digestion and landfill gas recovery. By incorporating qualitative and quantitative assessments, a preference ranking of the alternative technologies is produced. The effect of variations in decision criteria weightings are analysed in a sensitivity analysis. The methodology is applied principally to compare and assess energy recovery from waste options in the UK and India. These two countries have been selected as they could both benefit from further development of their waste-to-energy strategies, but have different technical and socio-economic challenges to consider. It is concluded that gasification is the preferred technology for the UK, whereas anaerobic digestion is the preferred technology for India. We believe that the presented methodology will be of particular value for waste-to-energy decision-makers in both developed and developing countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scalability of a Methodology for Generating Technical Trading Rules with GAPs Based on Risk-Return Adjustment and Incremental Training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Cal, E. A.; Fernández, E. M.; Quiroga, R.; Villar, J. R.; Sedano, J.

In previous works a methodology was defined, based on the design of a genetic algorithm GAP and an incremental training technique adapted to the learning of series of stock market values. The GAP technique consists in a fusion of GP and GA. The GAP algorithm implements the automatic search for crisp trading rules taking as objectives of the training both the optimization of the return obtained and the minimization of the assumed risk. Applying the proposed methodology, rules have been obtained for a period of eight years of the S&P500 index. The achieved adjustment of the relation return-risk has generated rules with returns very superior in the testing period to those obtained applying habitual methodologies and even clearly superior to Buy&Hold. This work probes that the proposed methodology is valid for different assets in a different market than previous work.

Hormonal and Surgical Treatment Options for Transgender Men (Female-to-Male).

PubMed

Gorton, Ryan Nicholas; Erickson-Schroth, Laura

2017-03-01

Untreated transgender men face serious negative health care outcomes. Effective medical, surgical, and mental health treatment ameliorates these risks. Although the research is not as robust as would be ideal, hormone treatment is effective and generally well tolerated with few serious medical risks. Surgeries carry serious risks; but for most transgender men, the benefits outweigh the risks. This review describes current evidence-based medical treatments for transgender men and provides an overview of surgical therapy to enable practitioners to discuss these options with their transgender male patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Infiltration modeling guidelines for commercial building energy analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gowri, Krishnan; Winiarski, David W.; Jarnagin, Ronald E.

This report presents a methodology for modeling air infiltration in EnergyPlus to account for envelope air barrier characteristics. Based on a review of various infiltration modeling options available in EnergyPlus and sensitivity analysis, the linear wind velocity coefficient based on DOE-2 infiltration model is recommended. The methodology described in this report can be used to calculate the EnergyPlus infiltration input for any given building level infiltration rate specified at known pressure difference. The sensitivity analysis shows that EnergyPlus calculates the wind speed based on zone altitude, and the linear wind velocity coefficient represents the variation in infiltration heat loss consistentmore » with building location and weather data.« less

Perspectives: Using Critical Incidents to Understand ESL Student Satisfaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, John

2015-01-01

In a marketized environment, ESL providers, in common with other postcompulsory educational institutions, canvass student satisfaction with their services. While the predominant method is likely to be based on tick-box questionnaires using Likert scales that measure degrees of satisfaction, qualitative methodology is an option when rich data is…

17 CFR 32.13 - Exemption from prohibition of commodity option transactions for trade options on certain...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... trade option merchant's internal controls with respect to market risk, credit risk, and other risks... disclosure statement: This brief statement does not disclose all of the risks and other significant aspects... from sources other than the person selling you this option about the use and risks of option contracts...

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Defining the "proven technology" technical criterion in the reactor technology assessment for Malaysia's nuclear power program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anuar, Nuraslinda; Kahar, Wan Shakirah Wan Abdul; Manan, Jamal Abdul Nasir Abd

2015-04-01

Developing countries that are considering the deployment of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the near future need to perform reactor technology assessment (RTA) in order to select the most suitable reactor design. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported in the Common User Considerations (CUC) document that "proven technology" is one of the most important technical criteria for newcomer countries in performing the RTA. The qualitative description of five desired features for "proven technology" is relatively broad and only provides a general guideline to its characterization. This paper proposes a methodology to define the "proven technology" term according to a specific country's requirements using a three-stage evaluation process. The first evaluation stage screens the available technologies in the market against a predefined minimum Technology Readiness Level (TRL) derived as a condition based on national needs and policy objectives. The result is a list of technology options, which are then assessed in the second evaluation stage against quantitative definitions of CUC desired features for proven technology. The potential technology candidates produced from this evaluation is further narrowed down to obtain a list of proven technology candidates by assessing them against selected risk criteria and the established maximum allowable total score using a scoring matrix. The outcome of this methodology is the proven technology candidates selected using an accurate definition of "proven technology" that fulfills the policy objectives, national needs and risk, and country-specific CUC desired features of the country that performs this assessment. A simplified assessment for Malaysia is carried out to demonstrate and suggest the use of the proposed methodology. In this exercise, ABWR, AP1000, APR1400 and EPR designs assumed the top-ranks of proven technology candidates according to Malaysia's definition of "proven technology".

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anuar, Nuraslinda, E-mail: nuraslinda@uniten.edu.my; Kahar, Wan Shakirah Wan Abdul, E-mail: shakirah@tnb.com.my; Manan, Jamal Abdul Nasir Abd

Developing countries that are considering the deployment of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the near future need to perform reactor technology assessment (RTA) in order to select the most suitable reactor design. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported in the Common User Considerations (CUC) document that “proven technology” is one of the most important technical criteria for newcomer countries in performing the RTA. The qualitative description of five desired features for “proven technology” is relatively broad and only provides a general guideline to its characterization. This paper proposes a methodology to define the “proven technology” term according to amore » specific country’s requirements using a three-stage evaluation process. The first evaluation stage screens the available technologies in the market against a predefined minimum Technology Readiness Level (TRL) derived as a condition based on national needs and policy objectives. The result is a list of technology options, which are then assessed in the second evaluation stage against quantitative definitions of CUC desired features for proven technology. The potential technology candidates produced from this evaluation is further narrowed down to obtain a list of proven technology candidates by assessing them against selected risk criteria and the established maximum allowable total score using a scoring matrix. The outcome of this methodology is the proven technology candidates selected using an accurate definition of “proven technology” that fulfills the policy objectives, national needs and risk, and country-specific CUC desired features of the country that performs this assessment. A simplified assessment for Malaysia is carried out to demonstrate and suggest the use of the proposed methodology. In this exercise, ABWR, AP1000, APR1400 and EPR designs assumed the top-ranks of proven technology candidates according to Malaysia’s definition of “proven technology”.« less

The Fundamental Uncertainty of Business: Real Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyer, James S.

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the manner in which uncertainty is currently evaluated in business, with an emphasis on economic measures. In recent years, the accepted approach for the valuation of capital investment decisions has become one based on the theory of real options. From the standpoint of this workshop, the interesting aspect of real options is its focus on the flexibility of management to respond to changes in the environment as a feature of an alternative that has unique value, known as "option value." While this may not be surprising to most participants in this workshop, it does represent a radical change in traditional thinking about risk in business, where efforts have primarily been focused on the elimination of risk when possible.

Application of Real Options Theory to DoD Software Acquisitions

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-01

words.) The traditional real options valuation methodology, when enhanced and properly formulated around a proposed or existing software investment...Std 239-18 - ii - THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK - iii - Abstract The traditional real options valuation ...founder and CEO of Real Options Valuation , Inc., a consulting, training, and software development firm specializing in strategic real options

Development of risk-based decision methodology for facility design.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-06-01

This report develops a methodology for CDOT to use in the risk analysis of various types of facilities and provides : illustrative examples for the use of the proposed framework. An overview of the current practices and applications to : illustrate t...

Flexibility and Project Value: Interactions and Multiple Real Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Čulík, Miroslav

2010-06-01

This paper is focused on a project valuation with embedded portfolio of real options including their interactions. Valuation is based on the criterion of Net Present Value on the simulation basis. Portfolio includes selected types of European-type real options: option to expand, contract, abandon and temporarily shut down and restart a project. Due to the fact, that in reality most of the managerial flexibility takes the form of portfolio of real options, selected types of options are valued not only individually, but also in combination. The paper is structured as follows: first, diffusion models for forecasting of output prices and variable costs are derived. Second, project value is estimated on the assumption, that no real options are present. Next, project value is calculated with the presence of selected European-type options; these options and their impact on project value are valued first in isolation and consequently in different combinations. Moreover, intrinsic value evolution of given real options with respect to the time of exercising is analysed. In the end, results are presented graphically; selected statistics and risk measures (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall) of the NPV's distributions are calculated and commented.

Adolescent Sexuality: Pregnancy, Sexually Transmitted Diseases, and Prevention.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santelli, John S.; And Others

1992-01-01

Special edition discusses adolescent sexuality, focusing on pregnancy, sexually transmitted diseases, and prevention. The articles focus on demographics, risk factors, school-based risk reduction programs, contraception, early intervention, options, school-based prenatal and postpartum care programs, teenage parenting, abortion, HIV and AIDS,…

Using info-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korteling, B.; Brazier, R.; Kapelan, Z.; Dessai, S.

2012-12-01

Water resource managers are required to develop comprehensive water resource plans based on severely uncertain information of the effects of climate change on local hydrology and future socio-economic changes on localised demand. In England and Wales, current water resource planning methodologies include a headroom estimation process that quantifies uncertainty based on only one point of an assumed range of deviations from the expected climate and projected demand 25 years into the future. There are many situations where there is not enough knowledge to be able to estimate a representative probability of occurrence, or to be confident that the tails of an assumed probability distribution will not exhibit unexpected skewness, or that the kurtosis of a distribution differs from the norm. These situations can be considered severely uncertain. Information-Gap decision theory offers a method to sample a wider range of uncertainty than with traditional methods, and as a result, compare the robustness of various water resource management options under conditions of severe uncertainty. A more robust management option is one that delivers the same level of performance as other options at higher levels of uncertainty. A case study is based on a Water Supply Area that encompasses the county of Cornwall in southwest England containing 17 reservoirs and 19 demand nodes. The performance success of management options are evaluated primarily by measures of water availability including a reservoir risk measure that tests the probability and magnitude that strategic reservoir storage levels fall below the drought management curve under adverse conditions and also a safety margin deficit that tests how quickly reservoir levels can return to optimum operating levels in favourable conditions. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is used to test the effectiveness of different management options with different weightings for metrics other than water availability including; capital and operating costs, costs to customers, carbon emissions, environmental impact and social acceptability. Findings show that beyond the uncertainty range explored with the traditional headroom method, preference reversals can occur, i.e. some management options that underperform at lower uncertainties, outperform at higher levels of uncertainty. This study also shows that when 50% or more of the population adopts demand side management, efficiency related measures and innovative options such as rainwater collection can perform equally well or better than some supply side options. The additional use of MCDA shifts the focus away from reservoir expansion options that perform best with respect to water availability, to combined strategies that include innovative demand side management actions of rainwater collection and greywater reuse as well as efficiency measures and additional regional transfers. This research illustrates how an Info-Gap based approach can offer a comprehensive picture of potential supply/demand futures and a rich variety of information to support adaptive management of water systems under severe uncertainty.

Comparison between low-cost marker-less and high-end marker-based motion capture systems for the computer-aided assessment of working ergonomics.

PubMed

Patrizi, Alfredo; Pennestrì, Ettore; Valentini, Pier Paolo

2016-01-01

The paper deals with the comparison between a high-end marker-based acquisition system and a low-cost marker-less methodology for the assessment of the human posture during working tasks. The low-cost methodology is based on the use of a single Microsoft Kinect V1 device. The high-end acquisition system is the BTS SMART that requires the use of reflective markers to be placed on the subject's body. Three practical working activities involving object lifting and displacement have been investigated. The operational risk has been evaluated according to the lifting equation proposed by the American National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. The results of the study show that the risk multipliers computed from the two acquisition methodologies are very close for all the analysed activities. In agreement to this outcome, the marker-less methodology based on the Microsoft Kinect V1 device seems very promising to promote the dissemination of computer-aided assessment of ergonomics while maintaining good accuracy and affordable costs. PRACTITIONER’S SUMMARY: The study is motivated by the increasing interest for on-site working ergonomics assessment. We compared a low-cost marker-less methodology with a high-end marker-based system. We tested them on three different working tasks, assessing the working risk of lifting loads. The two methodologies showed comparable precision in all the investigations.

Use of an interactive tool to assess patients' willingness-to-pay.

PubMed

Matthews, D; Rocchi, A; Wang, E C; Gafni, A

2001-10-01

Assessment of willingness to pay (WTP) has become an important issue in health care technology assessment and in providing insight into the risks and benefits of treatment options. We have accordingly explored the use of an interactive method for assessment of WTP. To illustrate our methodology, we describe the development and testing of an interactive tool to administer a WTP survey in a dental setting. The tool was developed to measure patient preference and strength of preference for three dental anesthetic options in a research setting. It delivered written and verbal formats simultaneously, including information about the risks and benefits of treatment options, insurance, and user-based WTP scenarios and questions on previous dental experience. Clinical information was presented using a modified decision aid. Subjects could request additional clinical information and review this information throughout the survey. Information and question algorithms were individualized, depending on the subject's reported clinical status and previous responses. Initial pretesting resulted in substantial modifications to the initial tool: shortening the clinical information (by making more of it optional reading) and personalizing the text to more fully engage the user. In terms of results 196 general population subjects were recruited using random-digit dialing in southwestern Ontario, Canada. Comprehension was tested to ensure the instrument clearly conveyed the clinical information; the average score was 97%. Subjects rated the instrument as easy/very easy to use (99%), interesting/very interesting (91%), and neither long nor short (72.4%). Most subjects were comfortable/very comfortable with a computer (84%). Indirect evaluation revealed most subjects completed the survey in the expected time (30 min). Additional information was requested by 50% of subjects, an average of 2.9 times each. Most subjects wanted this type of information available in the provider's office for use in clinical decision making (92%). Despite extensive pretesting, three "bugs" remained undiscovered until live use. We have demonstrated that the detailed information, complex algorithms, and cognitively challenging questions involved in a WTP survey can be successfully administered using a tailor-made, patient-based, interactive computer tool. Key lessons regarding the use of such tools include allowing the user to set the pace of information flow and tailor the content, engaging the user by personalizing the textual information, inclusion of tests of comprehension and offering opportunities for correction, and pretesting by fully mimicking the live environment.

Environmental Risk Assessment of dredging processes - application to Marin harbour (NW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, A. G.; García Alba, J.; Puente, A.; Juanes, J. A.

2014-04-01

A methodological procedure to estimate the environmental risk of dredging operations in aquatic systems has been developed. Environmental risk estimations are based on numerical models results, which provide an appropriated spatio-temporal framework analysis to guarantee an effective decision-making process. The methodological procedure has been applied on a real dredging operation in the port of Marin (NW Spain). Results from Marin harbour confirmed the suitability of the developed methodology and the conceptual approaches as a comprehensive and practical management tool.

Can streamlined multi-criteria decision analysis be used to implement shared decision making for colorectal cancer screening?

PubMed Central

Dolan, James G.; Boohaker, Emily; Allison, Jeroan; Imperiale, Thomas F.

2013-01-01

Background Current US colorectal cancer screening guidelines that call for shared decision making regarding the choice among several recommended screening options are difficult to implement. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is an established methodology well suited for supporting shared decision making. Our study goal was to determine if a streamlined form of MCDA using rank order based judgments can accurately assess patients’ colorectal cancer screening priorities. Methods We converted priorities for four decision criteria and three sub-criteria regarding colorectal cancer screening obtained from 484 average risk patients using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in a prior study into rank order-based priorities using rank order centroids. We compared the two sets of priorities using Spearman rank correlation and non-parametric Bland-Altman limits of agreement analysis. We assessed the differential impact of using the rank order-based versus the AHP-based priorities on the results of a full MCDA comparing three currently recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies. Generalizability of the results was assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. Results Correlations between the two sets of priorities for the seven criteria ranged from 0.55 to 0.92. The proportions of absolute differences between rank order-based and AHP-based priorities that were more than ± 0.15 ranged from 1% to 16%. Differences in the full MCDA results were minimal and the relative rankings of the three screening options were identical more than 88% of the time. The Monte Carlo simulation results were similar. Conclusion Rank order-based MCDA could be a simple, practical way to guide individual decisions and assess population decision priorities regarding colorectal cancer screening strategies. Additional research is warranted to further explore the use of these methods for promoting shared decision making. PMID:24300851

Options for management of municipal solid waste in New York City: A preliminary comparison of health risks and policy implications

PubMed Central

Moy, Pearl; Krishnan, Nikhil; Ulloa, Priscilla; Cohen, Steven; Brandt-Rauf, Paul W.

2008-01-01

Landfill disposal and waste-to-energy (WTE) incineration remain the two principal options for managing municipal solid waste (MSW). One critical determinant of the acceptability of these options is the different health risks associated with each. In this analysis relying on published data and exposure modeling, we have performed health risk assessments for landfill disposal versus WTE treatment options for the management of New York City’s MSW. These are based on the realistic scenario of using a waste transfer station (WTS) in Brooklyn and then transporting the untreated MSW by truck to a landfill in Pennsylvania or using a WTE facility in Brooklyn and then transporting the resultant ash by truck to a landfill in Pennsylvania. The overall results indicate that the individual cancer risks for both options would be considered generally acceptable, although the risk from landfilling is approximately 5 times greater than from WTE treatment; the individual non-cancer health risks for both options would be considered generally unacceptable, although once again the risk from landfilling is approximately 5 times greater than from WTE treatment. If one considers only the population in Brooklyn that would be directly affected by the siting of either a WTS or a WTE facility in their immediate neighborhood, individual cancer and non-cancer health risks for both options would be considered generally acceptable, but risks for the former remain considerably higher than for the latter. These results should be considered preliminary due to several limitations of this study such as: consideration of risks only from inhalation exposures; assumption that only volume and not composition of the waste stream is altered by WTE treatment; reliance on data from the literature rather than actual measurements of the sites considered, assuming comparability of the sites. However, the results of studies such as this, in conjunction with ecological, socioeconomic and equity considerations, should prove useful to environmental managers, regulators, policy makers, community representatives and other stakeholders in making sound and acceptable decisions regarding the optimal handling of MSW. PMID:17379391

Improving Energy Security for Air Force Installations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schill, David

Like civilian infrastructure, Air Force installations are dependent on electrical energy for daily operations. Energy shortages translate to decreased productivity, higher costs, and increased health risks. But for the United States military, energy shortages have the potential to become national security risks. Over ninety-five percent of the electrical energy used by the Air Force is supplied by the domestic grid, which is susceptible to shortages and disruptions. Many Air Force operations require a continuous source of energy, and while the Air Force has historically established redundant supplies of electrical energy, these back-ups are designed for short-term outages and may not provide sufficient supply for a longer, sustained power outage. Furthermore, it is the goal of the Department of Defense to produce or procure 25 percent of its facility energy from renewable sources by fiscal year 2025. In a government budget environment where decision makers are required to provide more capability with less money, it is becoming increasingly important for informed decisions regarding which energy supply options bear the most benefit for an installation. The analysis begins by exploring the field of energy supply options available to an Air Force installation. The supply options are assessed according to their ability to provide continuous and reliable energy, their applicability to unique requirements of Air Force installations, and their costs. Various methods of calculating energy usage by an installation are also addressed. The next step of this research develops a methodology and tool which assesses how an installation responds to various power outage scenarios. Lastly, various energy supply options are applied to the tool, and the results are reported in terms of cost and loss of installation capability. This approach will allow installation commanders and energy managers the ability to evaluate the cost and effectiveness of various energy investment options.

Meteorological risks as drivers of innovation for agroecosystem management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne; Van de Vyver, Hans; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Planchon, Viviane; Verspecht, Ann; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

2015-04-01

Devastating weather-related events recorded in recent years have captured the interest of the general public in Belgium. The MERINOVA project research hypothesis is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management which is being tested using a "chain of risk" approach. The major objectives are to (1) assess the probability of extreme meteorological events by means of probability density functions; (2) analyse the extreme events impact of on agro-ecosystems using process-based bio-physical modelling methods; (3) identify the most vulnerable agro-ecosystems using fuzzy multi-criteria and spatial analysis; (4) uncover innovative risk management and adaptation options using actor-network theory and economic modelling; and, (5) communicate to research, policy and practitioner communities using web-based techniques. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory was used to model annual rainfall maxima based on location-, scale- and shape-parameters that determine the centre of the distribution, the deviation of the location-parameter and the upper tail decay, respectively. Likewise the distributions of consecutive rainy days, rainfall deficits and extreme 24-hour rainfall were modelled. Spatial interpolation of GEV-derived return levels resulted in maps of extreme precipitation, precipitation deficits and wet periods. The degree of temporal overlap between extreme weather conditions and sensitive periods in the agro-ecosystem was determined using a bio-physically based modelling framework that couples phenological models, a soil water balance, crop growth and environmental models. 20-year return values were derived for frost, heat stress, drought, waterlogging and field access during different sensitive stages for different arable crops. Extreme yield values were detected from detrended long term arable yields and relationships were found with soil moisture conditions, heat stress or other meteorological variables during the season. A methodology for identifying agro-ecosystem vulnerability was developed using spatially explicit information and was tested for arable crop production in Belgium. The different components of vulnerability for a region include spatial information on meteorology, soil available water content, soil erosion, the degree of waterlogging, crop share and the diversity of potato varieties. The level of vulnerability and resilience of an agro-ecosystem is also determined by risk management. The types of agricultural risk and their relative importance differ across sectors and farm types. Risk types are further distinguished according to production, market, institutional, financial and liability risks. Strategies are often combined in the risk management strategy of a farmer and include reduction and prevention, mitigation, coping and impact reduction. Based on an extensive literature review, a portfolio of potential strategies was identified at farm, market and policy level. Research hypotheses were tested using an on-line questionnaire on knowledge of agricultural risk, measuring the general risk aversion of the farmer and risk management strategies. The "chain of risk" approach adopted as a research methodology allows for investigating the hypothesis that meteorological risks act as drivers for agricultural innovation. Risks related to extreme weather events in Belgium are mainly caused by heat, frost, excess rainfall, drought and storms, and their impact is predominantly felt by arable, horticultural and extensive dairy farmers. Quantification of the risk is evaluated in terms of probability of occurrence, magnitude, frequency and extent of impact on several agro-ecosystems services. The spatial extent of vulnerability is developed by integrating different layers of geo-information, while risk management is analysed using questionnaires and economic modelling methods. Future work will concentrate on the further development and testing of the currently developed modelling methodologies. https://merinova.vito.be The research is funded by the Belgian Science Policy Organisation (Belspo) under contract nr SD/RI/03A.

Strategic Environmental Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in the Canadian Agricultural Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noble, Bram F.; Christmas, Lisa M.

2008-01-01

This article presents a methodological framework for strategic environmental assessment (SEA) application. The overall objective is to demonstrate SEA as a systematic and structured policy, plan, and program (PPP) decision support tool. In order to accomplish this objective, a stakeholder-based SEA application to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy options in Canadian agriculture is presented. Using a mail-out impact assessment exercise, agricultural producers and nonproducers from across the Canadian prairie region were asked to evaluate five competing GHG mitigation options against 13 valued environmental components (VECs). Data were analyzed using multi-criteria and exploratory analytical techniques. The results suggest considerable variation in perceived impacts and GHG mitigation policy preferences, suggesting that a blanket policy approach to GHG mitigation will create gainers and losers based on soil type and associate cropping and on-farm management practices. It is possible to identify a series of regional greenhouse gas mitigation programs that are robust, socially meaningful, and operationally relevant to both agricultural producers and policy decision makers. The assessment demonstrates the ability of SEA to address, in an operational sense, environmental problems that are characterized by conflicting interests and competing objectives and alternatives. A structured and systematic SEA methodology provides the necessary decision support framework for the consideration of impacts, and allows for PPPs to be assessed based on a much broader set of properties, objectives, criteria, and constraints whereas maintaining rigor and accountability in the assessment process.

Assessment of the influence of test characteristics on the clinical and cost impacts of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus screening programs in US hospitals.

PubMed

Olchanski, Natalia; Mathews, Charles; Fusfeld, Lauren; Jarvis, William

2011-03-01

To compare the impacts of different methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) screening test options (eg, polymerase chain reaction [PCR], rapid culture) and program characteristics on the clinical outcomes and budget of a typical US hospital. We developed an Excel-based decision-analytic model, using published literature to calculate and compare hospital costs and MRSA infection rates for PCR- or culture-based MRSA screening and then used multivariate sensitivity analysis to evaluate key variables. Same-day PCR testing for a representative 370-bed teaching hospital in the United States was assessed in different populations (high-risk patients, intensive care unit [ICU] patients, or all patients) and compared with other test options. Different screening program populations (all patients, high-risk patients, ICU patients, or patients with previous MRSA colonization or infection only) represented a potential savings of $12,158-$76,624 per month over no program ($188,618). Analysis of multiple test options in high-risk population screening indicated that same-day PCR testing of high-risk patients resulted in fewer infections over 1,720 patient-days (2.9, compared with 3.5 for culture on selective media and 3.8 for culture on nonselective media) and the lowest total cost ($112,012). The costs of other testing approaches ranged from $113,742 to $123,065. Sensitivity analysis revealed that variations in transmission rate, conversion to infection, prevalence increases, and hospital size are important to determine program impact. Among test characteristics, turnaround time is highly influential. All screening options showed reductions in infection rates and cost impact improvement over no screening program. Among the options, same-day PCR testing for high-risk patients slightly edges out the others in terms of fewest infections and greatest potential cost savings.

Engaging patients in health care decisions in the emergency department through shared decision-making: a systematic review.

PubMed

Flynn, Darren; Knoedler, Meghan A; Hess, Erik P; Murad, M Hassan; Erwin, Patricia J; Montori, Victor M; Thomson, Richard G

2012-08-01

Many decisions in the emergency department (ED) may benefit from patient involvement, even though this setting has been considered least conducive to shared decision-making (SDM). The objective was to conduct a systematic review to evaluate the approaches, methods, and tools used to engage patients or their surrogates in SDM in the ED. Five electronic databases were searched in conjunction with contacting content experts, reviewing selected bibliographies, and conducting citation searches using the Web of Knowledge database. Two reviewers independently selected eligible studies that addressed patient involvement and engagement in decision-making in the ED setting via the use of decision support interventions (DSIs), defined as decision aids or decision support designed to communicate probabilistic information on the risks and benefits of treatment options to patients as part of an SDM process. Eligible studies described and assessed at least one of the following outcomes: patient knowledge, experiences and perspectives on participating in treatment or management decisions, clinician or patient satisfaction, preference for involvement and/or degree of engagement in decision-making and treatment preferences, and clinical outcomes (e.g., rates of hospital admission/readmission, rates of medical or surgical interventions). Two reviewers extracted data on study characteristics, methodologic quality, and outcomes. The authors also assessed the extent to which SDM interventions adhered to good practice for the presentation of information on outcome probabilities (eight probability items from the International Patient Decision Aid Standards Instrument [IPDASi]) and had comprehensive development processes. Five studies met inclusion criteria and were synthesized using a narrative approach. Each study was of satisfactory methodologic quality and used a DSI to engage patients or their surrogates in decision-making in the ED across four domains: 1) management options for children with small lacerations; 2) options for rehydrating children presenting with vomiting or diarrhea or both; 3) risk of bacteremia (and associated complications), tests, and treatment options for febrile children; and 4) short-term risk of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in adults with low-risk nontraumatic chest pain. Three studies had poor IPDASi probabilities and development process scores and lacked development informed by theory or involvement of clinicians and patients in development and usability testing. Overall, DSIs were associated with improvements in patients' knowledge and satisfaction with the explanation of their care, preferences for involvement, and engagement in decision-making and demonstrated utility for eliciting patients' preferences and values about management and treatment options. Two computerized DSIs (designed to predict risk of ACS in adults presenting to the ED with chest pain) were shown to reduce health care use without evidence of harm. None of the studies reported lack of feasibility of SDM in the ED. Early investigation of SDM in the ED suggests that patients may benefit from involvement in decision-making and offers no empirical evidence to suggest that SDM is not feasible. Future work is needed to develop and test additional SDM interventions in the ED and to identify contextual barriers and facilitators to implementation in practice. © 2012 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Making real options really work.

PubMed

van Putten, Alexander B; MacMillan, Ian C

2004-12-01

As a way to value growth opportunities, real options have had a difficult time catching on with managers. Many CFOs believe the method ensures the overvaluation of risky projects. This concern is legitimate, but abandoning real options as a valuation model isn't the solution. Companies that rely solely on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis underestimate the value of their projects and may fail to invest enough in uncertain but highly promising opportunities. CFOs need not--and should not--choose one approach over the other. Far from being a replacement for DCF analysis, real options are an essential complement, and a project's total value should encompass both. DCF captures a base estimate of value; real options take into account the potential for big gains. This is not to say that there aren't problems with real options. As currently applied, they focus almost exclusively on the risks associated with revenues, ignoring the risks associated with a project's costs. It's also true that option valuations almost always ignore assets that an initial investment in a subsequently abandoned project will often leave the company. In this article, the authors present a simple formula for combining DCF and option valuations that addresses these two problems. Using an integrated approach, managers will, in the long run, select better projects than their more timid competitors while keeping risk under control. Thus, they will outperform their rivals in both the product and the capital markets.

CREAT Risk Assessment Application for Water Utilities

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CREAT allows users to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on their utility and to evaluate adaptation options to address them using both traditional risk assessment and scenario-based decision making.

Adaptive Flood Risk Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty Using Real Options and Optimization.

PubMed

Woodward, Michelle; Kapelan, Zoran; Gouldby, Ben

2014-01-01

It is well recognized that adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are required to account for future uncertainties. Development of such strategies is, however, a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication, but, in addition, complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of mitigation measures, or interventions. There are a range of economic and environmental performance measures that require consideration, and the spatial and temporal aspects of evaluating the performance of these is complex. All these elements pose severe difficulties to decisionmakers. This article describes a decision support methodology that has the capability to assess the most appropriate set of interventions to make in a flood system and the opportune time to make these interventions, given the future uncertainties. The flood risk strategies have been explicitly designed to allow for flexible adaptive measures by capturing the concepts of real options and multiobjective optimization to evaluate potential flood risk management opportunities. A state-of-the-art flood risk analysis tool is employed to evaluate the risk associated to each strategy over future points in time and a multiobjective genetic algorithm is utilized to search for the optimal adaptive strategies. The modeling system has been applied to a reach on the Thames Estuary (London, England), and initial results show the inclusion of flexibility is advantageous, while the outputs provide decisionmakers with supplementary knowledge that previously has not been considered. © 2013 HR Wallingford Ltd.

Systematic Planning of Adaptation Options for Pluvial Flood Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babovic, Filip; Mijic, Ana; Madani, Kaveh

2016-04-01

Different elements of infrastructure and the built environment vary in their ability to quickly adapt to changing circumstances. Furthermore, many of the slowest, and often largest infrastructure adaptations, offer the greatest improvements to system performance. In the context of de-carbonation of individual buildings Brand (1995) identified six potential layers of adaptation based on their renewal times ranging from daily to multi-decadal time scales. Similar layers exist in urban areas with regards to Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) and pluvial flood risk. These layers range from appliances within buildings to changes in the larger urban form. Changes in low-level elements can be quickly implemented, but are limited in effectiveness, while larger interventions occur at a much slower pace but offer greater benefits as a part of systemic change. In the context of urban adaptation this multi-layered approach provides information on how to order urban adaptations. This information helps to identify potential pathways by prioritising relatively quick adaptations to be implemented in the short term while identifying options which require more long term planning with respect to both uncertainty and flexibility. This information is particularly critical in the evolution towards more resilient and water sensitive cities (Brown, 2009). Several potential adaptation options were identified ranging from small to large-scale adaptations. The time needed for the adaptation to be implemented was estimated and curves representing the added drainage capacity per year were established. The total drainage capacity added by each option was then established. This methodology was utilised on a case study in the Cranbrook Catchment in the North East of London. This information was able to provide insight on how to best renew or extend the life of critical ageing infrastructure.

[Methodological and operational notes for the assessment and management of the risk of work-related stress].

PubMed

De Ambrogi, Francesco; Ratti, Elisabetta Ceppi

2011-01-01

Today the Italian national debate over the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology is rather heated. Several methodological proposals and guidelines have been published in recent months, not least those by the "Commissione Consultiva". But despite this wide range of proposals, it appears that there is still a lack of attention to some of the basic methodological issues that must be taken into account in order to correctly implement the above-mentioned guidelines. The aim of this paper is to outline these methodological issues. In order to achieve this, the most authoritative methodological proposals and guidelines have been reviewed. The study focuses in particular on the methodological issues that could lead to important biases if not considered properly. The study leads to some considerations about the methodological validity of a Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment based exclusively on the literal interpretation of the considered proposals. Furthermore, the study provides some hints and working hypotheses on how to overcome these methodological limits. This study should be considered as a starting point for further investigations and debate on the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology on a national level.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Human health risk assessment case study: an abandoned metal smelter site in Poland.

PubMed

Wcisło, Eleonora; Ioven, Dawn; Kucharski, Rafal; Szdzuj, Jerzy

2002-05-01

United States Environmental Protection Agency methodologies for human health risk assessment (HRA) were applied in a Brownfields Demonstration Project on the Warynski smelter site (WSS), an abandoned industrial site at Piekary Slaskie town, Upper Silesia, Poland. The HRA included the baseline risk assessment (BRA) and the development of risk-based preliminary remedial goals (RBPRGs). The HRA focused on surface area covered with waste materials, which were evaluated with regard to the potential risks they may pose to humans. Cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, lead, and zinc were proposed as the contaminants of potential concern (COPCs) at WSS based on archive data on chemical composition of waste located on WSS. For the defined future land use patterns, the industrial (I) and recreational (II) exposure scenarios were assumed and evaluated. The combined hazard index for all COPCs was 3.1E+00 for Scenario I and 3.2E+00 for Scenario II. Regarding potential carcinogenic risks associated with the inhalation route, only cadmium was a contributor, with risks of 1.6E-06 and 2.6E-07 for Scenario I and Scenario II, respectively. The results of the BRA indicated that the potential health risks at WSS were mainly associated with waste material exposure to cadmium (industrial and recreational scenarios) and lead (industrial scenario). RBPRGs calculated under the industrial scenario were 1.17E+03 and 1.62E+03 mg/kg for cadmium and lead, respectively. The RBPRG for cadmium was 1.18E+03 mg/kg under the recreational scenario. The BRA results, as well as RBCs, are comparable for both scenarios, so it is impossible to prioritize land use patterns for WSS based on these results. For choosing a future land use pattern or an appropriate redevelopment option, different factors would be decisive in the decision-making process, e.g., social, market needs, technical feasibility and costs of redevelopment actions or acceptance of local community.

Exploring shared risks through public-private partnerships in public health programs: a mixed method.

PubMed

Alonazi, Wadi B

2017-06-12

The natural assimilation of the process through which health partners sustain long-term relationships is a key issue in maintaining social well-being, reducing health risk factors, and sustaining public health programs. One global initiative in building effective healthcare systems is public-private partnerships (PPPs). This study elucidates the proposed key performance indicators initiated by the Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia based on the projections of the government, known as Vision 2030, from the perspective of health risk factors. Through an inductive content analysis, this study assessed primary and secondary data in relation to the Saudi National Transformation Program (NTP). To identify the institutions that played a role in formulating the new Saudi Healthcare System, health policies, regulations, and reports published between 1996 and 2016 were categorized. After ranking the risk factors, the investigator selected 13 healthcare professionals in four focus group interviews to insightfully explore the challenges that the NTP faces from a health risk perspective. Thus, the study employed qualitative data gathered through focus group interviews with key figures as well as data extracted from written sources to identify distinct but interrelated partnerships practiced within risk management. A methodological overview of NTP priority and implementation offered practical guidance in the healthcare context. The five critical factors in maintaining successful and sustainable PPPs were (1) trustworthiness, (2) technological capability, (3) patient-centeredness, (4) competence, and (5) flexibility. Concession on primary and secondary healthcare services might be a good option based on the literature review and considering its popularity in other countries. A high outcome-based risk of PPPs was found as the most commonly shared perspective in risk management. Although the impact of the NTP rise has yet to be explored, its potential for challenging health consequences requires consideration and substantial regulatory action. This study contributes to the emerging critical analysis on local health initiatives by highlighting how integration may only be possible with a more radical conceptualization of national health governance.

A Trans-disciplinary Hydrogeological Systems Analysis Approach for Identifying and Assessing Managed Aquifer Recharge Options: Example from the Darling River Floodplain, N.S.W., Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrie, K.; Brodie, R. S.; Tan, K. P.; Halas, L.; Magee, J.; Gow, L.; Christensen, N. B.

2013-12-01

Surface water availability and quality generally limits managed aquifer recharge (MAR) opportunities in inland Australia's highly salinized landscapes and groundwater systems. Economic factors also commonly limit MAR investigations to shallow freshwater groundwater systems near existing infrastructure. Aquifer opportunities lie mainly in zones of fresh groundwater in relatively thin fluvial sedimentary aquifer systems with highly variable hydraulic properties. As part of a broader strategy to identify water savings in the Murray-Darling Basin, the Broken Hill Managed Aquifer Recharge (BHMAR) project was tasked with identifying and assessing MAR and/or groundwater extraction options to reduce evaporative losses from existing surface water storages, secure Broken Hill's water supply, protect the local environment and heritage, and return water to the river system. A trans-disciplinary research approach was used to identify and assess MAR options across a broad area of the Darling River floodplain. This methodology enabled the team to recognise fundamental problems in discipline approaches, helped identify critical data gaps, led to significant innovation across discipline boundaries, was critical in the development of a new hydrogeological conceptual model, facilitated development of new models of landscape, geological and tectonic evolution of the study area, and enabled completion of pre-commissioning maximal and residual MAR risk assessments. An airborne electromagnetics (AEM) survey, acquired over a large (>7,500 sq km) area of the Darling Floodplain, enabled rapid identification of a multi-layer sequence of aquifers and aquitards, while a phased assessment methodology was developed to rapidly identify and assess over 30 potential MAR targets (largely in fresh groundwater zones within palaeochannels and at palaeochannel confluences). Hydraulic properties were confirmed by a 7.5 km drilling program (100 sonic and rotary mud holes), and complementary field (including limited pump tests) and laboratory measurements. Recognition of significant Neogene-to-Present faulting, warping and tilting of the unconsolidated sediments (using AEM, airborne magnetics, regional gravity, LiDAR and drilling data) was critical to understanding recharge, inter-aquifer leakage and potential environmental impacts of MAR options. A program of borehole Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) logging provided a record of near-continuous variations in K through the saturated sedimentary sequence, with the NMR data integrated with other borehole and AEM data to produce 3D maps of aquifer transmissivity. A priority site was identified where aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) options were assessed. Maximal and residual risk assessments of 12 hazard types included hydrogeological modelling, laboratory column clogging studies and geochemical assessment to identify source water treatment requirements. The study found that the residual scientific/technical risks for ASR at the priority site are low if the supplementary water treatment trains are included.

Technology, Data Bases and System Analysis for Space-to-Ground Optical Communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lesh, James

1995-01-01

Optical communications is becoming an ever-increasingly important option for designers of space-to- ground communications links, whether it be for government or commercial applications. In this paper the technology being developed by NASA for use in space-to-ground optical communications is presented. Next, a program which is collecting a long term data base of atmospheric visibility statistics for optical propagation through the atmosphere will be described. Finally, a methodology for utilizing the statistics of the atmospheric data base in the analysis of space-to-ground links will be presented. This methodology takes into account the effects of station availability, is useful when comparing optical communications with microwave systems, and provides a rationale establishing the recommended link margin.

An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dandini, Vincent John; Duran, Felicia Angelica; Wyss, Gregory Dane

2003-09-01

This article describes how features of event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology, with some of the best features of each. The resultant object-based event scenario tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible. Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST methodology is then applied to anmore » aviation safety problem that considers mechanisms by which an aircraft might become involved in a runway incursion incident. The resulting OBEST model demonstrates how a close link between human reliability analysis and probabilistic risk assessment methods can provide important insights into aviation safety phenomenology.« less

Documenting risk: A comparison of policy and information pamphlets for using epidural or water in labour.

PubMed

Newnham, Elizabeth C; McKellar, Lois V; Pincombe, Jan I

2015-09-01

Approximately 30% of Australian women use epidural analgesia for pain relief in labour, and its use is increasing. While epidural analgesia is considered a safe option from an anaesthetic point of view, its use transfers a labouring woman out of the category of 'normal' labour and increases her risk of intervention. Judicious use of epidural may be beneficial in particular situations, but its current common use needs to be assessed more closely. This has not yet been explored in the Australian context. To examine personal, social, institutional and cultural influences on women in their decision to use epidural analgesia in labour. Examining this one event in depth illuminates other birth practices, which can also be analysed according to how they fit within prevailing cultural beliefs about birth. Ethnography, underpinned by a critical medical anthropology methodology. These findings describe the influence of risk culture on labour ward practice; specifically, the policies and practices surrounding the use of epidural analgesia are contrasted with those on the use of water. Engaging with current risk theory, we identify the role of power in conceptualisations of risk, which are commonly perpetuated by authority rather than evidence. As we move towards a risk-driven society, it is vital to identify both the conception and the consequences of promulgations of risk. The construction of waterbirth as a 'risky' practice had the effect of limiting midwifery practice and women's choices, despite evidence that points to the epidural as the more 'dangerous' option. Copyright © 2015 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aquifer Vulnerability to Arsenic contamination in the Conterminous United States: Health Risks and Economic Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Twarakavi, N. C.; Kaluarachchi, J. J.

2004-12-01

Arsenic is historically known be toxic to human health. Drinking water contaminated with unsafe levels of arsenic may cause cancer. The toxicity of arsenic is suggested by a MCLG of zero and a low MCL of 10 µg/L, that has been a subject of constant scrutiny. The US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), based on the recommendations of the National Academy of Sciences revised the MCL from 1974 value of 50 µg/L to 10 µg/L. The decision was based on a national-level analysis of arsenic concentration data collected by the National Analysis of Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA). Another factor that makes arsenic in drinking water a major issue is the widespread occurrence and a variety of sources. Arsenic occurs naturally in mineral deposits and is also contributed through anthropogenic sources. A methodology using the ordinal logistic regression (LR) method is proposed to predict the probability of occurrence of arsenic in shallow ground waters of the conterminous United States (CONUS) subject to a set of influencing variables. The analysis considered the maximum contaminant level (MCL) options of 3, 5, 10, 20, and 50 µg/L as threshold values to estimate the probabilities of arsenic occurrence in ranges defined by a given MCL and a detection limit of 1 µg/L. The fit between the observed and predicted probability of occurrence was around 83% for all MCL options. The estimated probabilities were used to estimate the median background concentration of arsenic for different aquifer types in the CONUS. The shallow ground water of the western US is more vulnerable to arsenic contamination than the eastern US. Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and California in particular are hotspots for arsenic contamination. The model results were extended for estimating the health risks and costs posed by arsenic occurrence in the ground water of the United States. The risk assessment showed that counties in southern California, Arizona, Florida, Washington States and a few others scattered throughout the CONUS face a high risk from arsenic exposure through untreated ground water consumption. The risk analysis also showed the trade-offs in using different risk estimates as decision-making tools. A simple cost effectiveness analysis was performed to understand the household costs for MCL compliance in using arsenic-contaminated ground water. The results showed that the current MCL of 10 µg/L is a good compromise based on existing treatment technologies

Delta Clipper-Experimental In-Ground Effect on Base-Heating Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Ten-See

1998-01-01

A quasitransient in-ground effect method is developed to study the effect of vertical landing on a launch vehicle base-heating environment. This computational methodology is based on a three-dimensional, pressure-based, viscous flow, chemically reacting, computational fluid dynamics formulation. Important in-ground base-flow physics such as the fountain-jet formation, plume growth, air entrainment, and plume afterburning are captured with the present methodology. Convective and radiative base-heat fluxes are computed for comparison with those of a flight test. The influence of the laminar Prandtl number on the convective heat flux is included in this study. A radiative direction-dependency test is conducted using both the discrete ordinate and finite volume methods. Treatment of the plume afterburning is found to be very important for accurate prediction of the base-heat fluxes. Convective and radiative base-heat fluxes predicted by the model using a finite rate chemistry option compared reasonably well with flight-test data.

Lack of tolerable treatment options for patients with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Citrome, Leslie; Eramo, Anna; Francois, Clement; Duffy, Ruth; Legacy, Susan N; Offord, Steve J; Krasa, Holly B; Johnston, Stephen S; Guiraud-Diawara, Alice; Kamat, Siddhesh A; Rohman, Patricia

2015-01-01

Atypical antipsychotics (AAs), an effective treatment for schizophrenia, have a range of pharmacologic properties leading to differences in tolerability as well as heterogeneity in treatment response. Individual patient characteristics must be considered when making treatment choices, especially from an adverse event (AE) or tolerability perspective. Despite the availability of numerous AAs, after appraising patient characteristics at the time of treatment selection, physicians may quickly run out of tolerable treatment options. AE risk factors, defined as having either a prior history of an AE or a risk factor for that AE, were determined for Medicaid-insured and Commercially insured patients using database analysis. Patients receiving AA treatment between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2012 defined the index date of first observed AA prescription during this period. Nine AAs were evaluated for association with AE risk factors as informed by drug prescribing information from the different manufacturers and published meta-analyses. The proportion of patients with pre-index AE risk factors prescribed an AA associated with that risk factor was then determined. A high proportion of patients (>80%) were prescribed an AA associated with extrapyramidal symptoms or akathisia despite experiencing extrapyramidal symptoms or akathisia prior to AA treatment initiation. Similar trends were observed among patients with diabetes (>60%) and obesity (>40%). From the nine treatment options available, the number of optimal choices for individual patient segments were limited based on their prior history, including those with cardiometabolic and cardiovascular comorbidities (four); experiencing prolactin elevation-related problems (seven); needing to avoid excessive sedation (four); or at risk of extrapyramidal symptoms or akathisia (two). Options were then further restricted among patients in more than one segment when multiple pre-index AE risk factors were combined. When combining patient risk profile with antipsychotic AE profile, physicians may quickly run out of tolerable treatment options for individual patients, despite the availability of many AAs, suggesting a need for additional treatment options with better tolerability and without compromising efficacy.

Towards a robust methodology to assess coastal impacts and adaptation policies for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, Michalis; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

2016-04-01

The present contribution aims to present preliminary results from efforts towards (i) the development of the integrated risk assessment tool LISCoAsT for Europe (Large scale Integrated Sea-level and Coastal Assessment Tool); (ii) the assessment of coastal risk along the European coastline in view of climate change; and (iii) the development and application of a robust methodology to evaluate adaptation options for the European coastline under climate change scenarios. The overall approach builds on the disaster risk methodology proposed by the IPCC SREX (2012) report, defining risk as the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Substantial effort has been put in all the individual components of the risk assessment chain, including: (1) the development of dynamic scenarios of catastrophic coastal hazards (e.g., storm surges, sea-level rise) in view of climate change; (2) quantification, mapping and forecasting exposure and vulnerability in coastal areas; (3) carrying out a bottom-up, highly disaggregated assessment of climate impacts on coastal areas in Europe in view of global warming; (4) estimating the costs and assessing the effectiveness of different adaptation options. Projections indicate that, by the end of this century, sea levels in Europe will rise on average between 45 and 70 cm; while projections of coastal hazard showed that for some European regions, the increased storminess can be an additional significant driver of further risk. Projections of increasing extreme storm surge levels (SSL) were even more pronounced under the business-as-usual RCP8.5 concentration pathway, in particular along the Northern Europe coastline. The above are also reflected in the coastal impact projections, which show a significant increase in the expected annual damage (EAD) from coastal flooding. The present EAD for Europe of 800 million €/year is projected to increase up to 2.4 and 3.2 billion €/year by 2040 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, and to 11.2 and 18.3 billion €/year by 2100 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively (values correspond to a medium ice-sheet behavior scenario). The projected Expected Annual Number of People forced to relocate because of RSLR by the year 2100 is 22,000 and 35,000 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Finally, the expected annual number of people affected by coastal flooding in Europe is projected to increase from presently 27,000 to 67,000 and 197,000 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively by 2040, and to 81,000 and 295,000 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively by 2100. Apart from improving the impact assessment approach, the main current priority is to advance further towards the evaluation of coastal adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

Space station data system analysis/architecture study. Task 2: Options development, DR-5. Volume 2: Design options

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

The primary objective of Task 2 is the development of an information base that will support the conduct of trade studies and provide sufficient data to make key design/programmatic decisions. This includes: (1) the establishment of option categories that are most likely to influence Space Station Data System (SSDS) definition; (2) the identification of preferred options in each category; and (3) the characterization of these options with respect to performance attributes, constraints, cost and risk. This volume contains the options development for the design category. This category comprises alternative structures, configurations and techniques that can be used to develop designs that are responsive to the SSDS requirements. The specific areas discussed are software, including data base management and distributed operating systems; system architecture, including fault tolerance and system growth/automation/autonomy and system interfaces; time management; and system security/privacy. Also discussed are space communications and local area networking.

Thrust augmentation options for the Beta 2 two-stage-to-orbit vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Snyder, Christopher A.

1993-01-01

NASA LeRC is continuing to study propulsion concepts for a horizontal takeoff and landing, fully reusable, two-stage-to-orbit vehicle. This will be capable of launching and returning a 10,000 pound payload to a 100 nautical mile polar orbit using low-risk technology. The vehicle, Beta 2, is a derivative of the USAF/Boeing Beta vehicle which was designed to deliver a 50,000 pound payload to a similar orbit. Beta 2 stages at Mach 6.5 and about 100,000 ft altitude. The propulsion system for the booster is an over/under turbine bypass engine/ramjet configuration. In this paper, several options for thrust augmentation were studied in order to improve the performance of this engine where there was a critical need. Options studies were turbine engine overspeed in the transonic region, water injection at a various turbine engine locations also during the transonic region, and water injection at the turbine engine face during high speed operation. The methodology, constraints, propulsion performance, and mission study results are presented.

Recommendations for benefit-risk assessment methodologies and visual representations.

PubMed

Hughes, Diana; Waddingham, Ed; Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Goginsky, Alesia; Chan, Edmond; Downey, Gerald F; Hallgreen, Christine E; Hockley, Kimberley S; Juhaeri, Juhaeri; Lieftucht, Alfons; Metcalf, Marilyn A; Noel, Rebecca A; Phillips, Lawrence D; Ashby, Deborah; Micaleff, Alain

2016-03-01

The purpose of this study is to draw on the practical experience from the PROTECT BR case studies and make recommendations regarding the application of a number of methodologies and visual representations for benefit-risk assessment. Eight case studies based on the benefit-risk balance of real medicines were used to test various methodologies that had been identified from the literature as having potential applications in benefit-risk assessment. Recommendations were drawn up based on the results of the case studies. A general pathway through the case studies was evident, with various classes of methodologies having roles to play at different stages. Descriptive and quantitative frameworks were widely used throughout to structure problems, with other methods such as metrics, estimation techniques and elicitation techniques providing ways to incorporate technical or numerical data from various sources. Similarly, tree diagrams and effects tables were universally adopted, with other visualisations available to suit specific methodologies or tasks as required. Every assessment was found to follow five broad stages: (i) Planning, (ii) Evidence gathering and data preparation, (iii) Analysis, (iv) Exploration and (v) Conclusion and dissemination. Adopting formal, structured approaches to benefit-risk assessment was feasible in real-world problems and facilitated clear, transparent decision-making. Prior to this work, no extensive practical application and appraisal of methodologies had been conducted using real-world case examples, leaving users with limited knowledge of their usefulness in the real world. The practical guidance provided here takes us one step closer to a harmonised approach to benefit-risk assessment from multiple perspectives. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

From Statehouse to Schoolhouse: Education Finance Apportionment Systems in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Verstegen, Deborah A.; Knoeppel, Robert C.

2012-01-01

This research investigates state finance policies for public elementary and secondary education using survey methodology. The purpose is to update the existing knowledge base in the field as well as to provide a compendium of finance and policy options that are being used across the states to finance school for lawmakers, educators and others.…

Semicompeting risks in aging research: methods, issues and needs

PubMed Central

Varadhan, Ravi; Xue, Qian-Li; Bandeen-Roche, Karen

2015-01-01

A semicompeting risks problem involves two-types of events: a nonterminal and a terminal event (death). Typically, the nonterminal event is the focus of the study, but the terminal event can preclude the occurrence of the nonterminal event. Semicompeting risks are ubiquitous in studies of aging. Examples of semicompeting risk dyads include: dementia and death, frailty syndrome and death, disability and death, and nursing home placement and death. Semicompeting risk models can be divided into two broad classes: models based only on observables quantities (class O) and those based on potential (latent) failure times (class L). The classical illness-death model belongs to class O. This model is a special case of the multistate models, which has been an active area of methodology development. During the past decade and a half, there has also been a flurry of methodological activity on semicompeting risks based on latent failure times (L models). These advances notwithstanding, the semi-competing risks methodology has not penetrated biomedical research, in general, and gerontological research, in particular. Some possible reasons for this lack of uptake are: the methods are relatively new and sophisticated, conceptual problems associated with potential failure time models are difficult to overcome, paucity of expository articles aimed at educating practitioners, and non-availability of readily usable software. The main goals of this review article are: (i) to describe the major types of semicompeting risks problems arising in aging research, (ii) to provide a brief survey of the semicompeting risks methods, (iii) to suggest appropriate methods for addressing the problems in aging research, (iv) to highlight areas where more work is needed, and (v) to suggest ways to facilitate the uptake of the semicompeting risks methodology by the broader biomedical research community. PMID:24729136

Understanding and Managing Zoonotic Risk in the New Livestock Industries

PubMed Central

Waage, Jeff; Barnett, Tony; Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Rushton, Jonathan; Rudge, James W.; Loevinsohn, Michael E.; Scoones, Ian; Smith, Richard D.; Cooper, Ben S.; White, Lisa J.; Goh, Shan; Horby, Peter; Wren, Brendan; Gundogdu, Ozan; Woods, Abigail; Coker, Richard J.

2013-01-01

Background: In many parts of the world, livestock production is undergoing a process of rapid intensification. The health implications of this development are uncertain. Intensification creates cheaper products, allowing more people to access animal-based foods. However, some practices associated with intensification may contribute to zoonotic disease emergence and spread: for example, the sustained use of antibiotics, concentration of animals in confined units, and long distances and frequent movement of livestock. Objectives: Here we present the diverse range of ecological, biological, and socioeconomic factors likely to enhance or reduce zoonotic risk, and identify ways in which a comprehensive risk analysis may be conducted by using an interdisciplinary approach. We also offer a conceptual framework to guide systematic research on this problem. Discussion: We recommend that interdisciplinary work on zoonotic risk should take into account the complexity of risk environments, rather than limiting studies to simple linear causal relations between risk drivers and disease emergence and/or spread. In addition, interdisciplinary integration is needed at different levels of analysis, from the study of risk environments to the identification of policy options for risk management. Conclusion: Given rapid changes in livestock production systems and their potential health implications at the local and global level, the problem we analyze here is of great importance for environmental health and development. Although we offer a systematic interdisciplinary approach to understand and address these implications, we recognize that further research is needed to clarify methodological and practical questions arising from the integration of the natural and social sciences. PMID:23665854

Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

PubMed

Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

2017-08-01

Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modeling methylene chloride exposure-reduction options for home paint-stripper users.

PubMed

Riley, D M; Small, M J; Fischhoff, B

2000-01-01

Home improvement is a popular activity, but one that can also involve exposure to hazardous substances. Paint stripping is of particular concern because of the high potential exposures to methylene chloride, a solvent that is a potential human carcinogen and neurotoxicant. This article presents a general methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of behavioral interventions for reducing these risks. It doubles as a model that assesses exposure patterns, incorporating user time-activity patterns and risk-mitigation strategies. The model draws upon recent innovations in indoor air-quality modeling to estimate exposure through inhalation and dermal pathways to paint-stripper users. It is designed to use data gathered from home paint-stripper users about room characteristics, amount of stripper used, time-activity patterns and exposure-reduction strategies (e.g., increased ventilation and modification in the timing of stripper application, scraping, and breaks). Results indicate that the effectiveness of behavioral interventions depends strongly on characteristics of the room (e.g., size, number and size of doors and windows, base air-exchange rates). The greatest simple reduction in exposure is achieved by using an exhaust fan in addition to opening windows and doors. These results can help identify the most important information for product labels and other risk-communication materials.

Minimizing DILI risk in drug discovery - A screening tool for drug candidates.

PubMed

Schadt, S; Simon, S; Kustermann, S; Boess, F; McGinnis, C; Brink, A; Lieven, R; Fowler, S; Youdim, K; Ullah, M; Marschmann, M; Zihlmann, C; Siegrist, Y M; Cascais, A C; Di Lenarda, E; Durr, E; Schaub, N; Ang, X; Starke, V; Singer, T; Alvarez-Sanchez, R; Roth, A B; Schuler, F; Funk, C

2015-12-25

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a leading cause of acute hepatic failure and a major reason for market withdrawal of drugs. Idiosyncratic DILI is multifactorial, with unclear dose-dependency and poor predictability since the underlying patient-related susceptibilities are not sufficiently understood. Because of these limitations, a pharmaceutical research option would be to reduce the compound-related risk factors in the drug-discovery process. Here we describe the development and validation of a methodology for the assessment of DILI risk of drug candidates. As a training set, 81 marketed or withdrawn compounds with differing DILI rates - according to the FDA categorization - were tested in a combination of assays covering different mechanisms and endpoints contributing to human DILI. These include the generation of reactive metabolites (CYP3A4 time-dependent inhibition and glutathione adduct formation), inhibition of the human bile salt export pump (BSEP), mitochondrial toxicity and cytotoxicity (fibroblasts and human hepatocytes). Different approaches for dose- and exposure-based calibrations were assessed and the same parameters applied to a test set of 39 different compounds. We achieved a similar performance to the training set with an overall accuracy of 79% correctly predicted, a sensitivity of 76% and a specificity of 82%. This test system may be applied in a prospective manner to reduce the risk of idiosyncratic DILI of drug candidates. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pricing foreign equity option with stochastic volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qi; Xu, Weidong

2015-11-01

In this paper we propose a general foreign equity option pricing framework that unifies the vast foreign equity option pricing literature and incorporates the stochastic volatility into foreign equity option pricing. Under our framework, the time-changed Lévy processes are used to model the underlying assets price of foreign equity option and the closed form pricing formula is obtained through the use of characteristic function methodology. Numerical tests indicate that stochastic volatility has a dramatic effect on the foreign equity option prices.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

PubMed

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

Improving the Method of Roof Fall Susceptibility Assessment based on Fuzzy Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghasemi, Ebrahim; Ataei, Mohammad; Shahriar, Kourosh

2017-03-01

Retreat mining is always accompanied by a great amount of accidents and most of them are due to roof fall. Therefore, development of methodologies to evaluate the roof fall susceptibility (RFS) seems essential. Ghasemi et al. (2012) proposed a systematic methodology to assess the roof fall risk during retreat mining based on risk assessment classic approach. The main defect of this method is ignorance of subjective uncertainties due to linguistic input value of some factors, low resolution, fixed weighting, sharp class boundaries, etc. To remove this defection and improve the mentioned method, in this paper, a novel methodology is presented to assess the RFS using fuzzy approach. The application of fuzzy approach provides an effective tool to handle the subjective uncertainties. Furthermore, fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is used to structure and prioritize various risk factors and sub-factors during development of this method. This methodology is applied to identify the susceptibility of roof fall occurrence in main panel of Tabas Central Mine (TCM), Iran. The results indicate that this methodology is effective and efficient in assessing RFS.

77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-30

...The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Board), and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) are revising their market risk capital rules to better capture positions for which the market risk capital rules are appropriate; reduce procyclicality; enhance the rules' sensitivity to risks that are not adequately captured under current methodologies; and increase transparency through enhanced disclosures. The final rule does not include all of the methodologies adopted by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision for calculating the standardized specific risk capital requirements for debt and securitization positions due to their reliance on credit ratings, which is impermissible under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010. Instead, the final rule includes alternative methodologies for calculating standardized specific risk capital requirements for debt and securitization positions.

Applications of artificial intelligence V; Proceedings of the Meeting, Orlando, FL, May 18-20, 1987

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilmore, John F. (Editor)

1987-01-01

The papers contained in this volume focus on current trends in applications of artificial intelligence. Topics discussed include expert systems, image understanding, artificial intelligence tools, knowledge-based systems, heuristic systems, manufacturing applications, and image analysis. Papers are presented on expert system issues in automated, autonomous space vehicle rendezvous; traditional versus rule-based programming techniques; applications to the control of optional flight information; methodology for evaluating knowledge-based systems; and real-time advisory system for airborne early warning.

Model risk for European-style stock index options.

PubMed

Gençay, Ramazan; Gibson, Rajna

2007-01-01

In empirical modeling, there have been two strands for pricing in the options literature, namely the parametric and nonparametric models. Often, the support for the nonparametric methods is based on a benchmark such as the Black-Scholes (BS) model with constant volatility. In this paper, we study the stochastic volatility (SV) and stochastic volatility random jump (SVJ) models as parametric benchmarks against feedforward neural network (FNN) models, a class of neural network models. Our choice for FNN models is due to their well-studied universal approximation properties of an unknown function and its partial derivatives. Since the partial derivatives of an option pricing formula are risk pricing tools, an accurate estimation of the unknown option pricing function is essential for pricing and hedging. Our findings indicate that FNN models offer themselves as robust option pricing tools, over their sophisticated parametric counterparts in predictive settings. There are two routes to explain the superiority of FNN models over the parametric models in forecast settings. These are nonnormality of return distributions and adaptive learning.

Bayesian Framework for Water Quality Model Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management

EPA Science Inventory

A formal Bayesian methodology is presented for integrated model calibration and risk-based water quality management using Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and maximum likelihood estimation (BMCML). The primary focus is on lucid integration of model calibration with risk-based wat...

Increased energy efficiency of a steel foundry plant by using a cleaner production quick-E-scan methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmeni, Zelda; Pan, Xiaowei

2017-07-01

The Quick-E-Scan methodology is a simple and quick method that is used to achieve operational energy efficiency as opposed to detailed energy audits, which therefore offers a no cost or less cost solutions for energy management programs with a limited budget. The quick-E-scan methodology was used to assesses a steel foundry plant based in Benoni through dividing the foundry into production sections which entailed a review of the current processes and usage patterns of energy within the plant and a detailed analysis of options available for improvement and profitable areas in which energy saving measures may be implemented for an increase energy efficiency which can be presented to management of the company.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Case Study on Project Risk Management Planning Based on Soft System Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifang, Xie; Jun, Li

This paper analyzed the soft system characters of construction projects and the applicability on using Soft System Methodology (SSM) for risk analysis after a brief review of SSM. Taking a hydropower project as an example, it constructed the general frame of project risk management planning (PRMP) and established the Risk Management Planning (RMP) system from the perspective of the interests of co-ordination. This paper provided the ideas and methods for construction RMP under the win-win situation through the practice of SSM.

Methodology to identify risk-significant components for inservice inspection and testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, M.T.; Hartley, R.S.; Jones, J.L. Jr.

1992-08-01

Periodic inspection and testing of vital system components should be performed to ensure the safe and reliable operation of Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear processing facilities. Probabilistic techniques may be used to help identify and rank components by their relative risk. A risk-based ranking would allow varied DOE sites to implement inspection and testing programs in an effective and cost-efficient manner. This report describes a methodology that can be used to rank components, while addressing multiple risk issues.

Study of Agricultural Product Options Pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

HONG, Qiu

2017-09-01

China is a large agricultural country, and the healthy development of agriculture is related to the stability of the whole society. The agricultural production and management of agricultural products are confronted with many risks, especially the market risks. Option contract is the object of option market transaction, so it is very important to study the option contract of agricultural products. Option trading separates the risk and profit, so that the trader can avoid the risk while retaining the opportunity to obtain income. The option has the characteristics of low transaction cost, simple and efficient, so it is suitable for small and medium investors.

Sensitivity analysis of environmental changes associated with riverscape evolutions following sediment reintroduction: Application to the Drôme River network, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piégay, H.; Bertrand, M.; Liébault, F.; Pont, D.; Sauquet, E.

2011-12-01

The present contribution aims to put into practice the conceptual framework defined in Pont et al. (2009) to the Drôme River Basin (France) in order to test the capacity of functional reach concept to be used to assess risks in environmental changes. The methodology is illustrated by examples focusing on the potential changes in functional reach diversity as a proxy of habitat diversity, and on potential impact on trout distribution at a network scale due to actions of sediment reintroduction. We used remote sensing and GIS methods to provide original data and to analyze them. A cluster analysis performed on the components of a PCA has been done to establish a functional reach typology based on planform parameters, used as a proxy of habitat typology following a review of literature. We calculated for the entire channel network an index of present and 1948 states of the functional reach types diversity to highlight past evolution. Various options of changes in functional reach types diversity were compared in relation to various increases in bedload delivery following planned deforestation. A similar risk assessment procedure is proposed in relation to changes in canopy cover and associated changes in summer temperature to evaluate impacts on brown trout distribution. Two practical examples are used as pilots for evaluating the risk assessment approach based on functional reach typology and its potential applicability for testing management actions for improving aquatic ecology. Limitations and improvements are then discussed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Veeramany, Arun

This research report summaries the development and evaluation of a prototypic enhanced risk monitor (ERM) methodology (framework) that includes alternative risk metrics and uncertainty analysis. This updated ERM methodology accounts for uncertainty in the equipment condition assessment (ECA), the prognostic result, and the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model. It is anticipated that the ability to characterize uncertainty in the estimated risk and update the risk estimates in real time based on equipment condition assessment (ECA) will provide a mechanism for optimizing plant performance while staying within specified safety margins. These results (based on impacting active component O&M using real-time equipmentmore » condition information) are a step towards ERMs that, if integrated with AR supervisory plant control systems, can help control O&M costs and improve affordability of advanced reactors.« less

Risk-informed selection of a highway trajectory in the neighborhood of an oil-refinery.

PubMed

Papazoglou, I A; Nivolianitou, Z; Aneziris, O; Christou, M D; Bonanos, G

1999-06-11

A methodology for characterizing alternative trajectories of a new highway in the neighborhood of an oil-refinery with respect to the risk to public health is presented. The approach is based on a quantitative assessment of the risk that the storage facilities of flammable materials of the refinery pose to the users of the highway. Physical phenomena with a potential for detrimental consequences to public health such as BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion), Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosion, flash fire and pool fire are considered. Methodological and procedural steps for assessing the individual risk around the tank farm of the oil-refinery are presented. Based on the individual risk, group risk for each alternative highway trajectory is determined. Copyright 1999 Elsevier Science B.V.

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark.

PubMed

Zhou, Q; Halsnæs, K; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K

2012-01-01

Climate change is likely to influence the water cycle by changing the precipitation patterns, in some cases leading to increased occurrences of precipitation extremes. Urban landscapes are vulnerable to such changes due to the concentrated population and socio-economic values in cities. Feasible adaptation requires better flood risk quantification and assessment of appropriate adaptation actions in term of costs and benefits. This paper presents an economic assessment of three prevailing climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in a Danish case study, Odense. A risk-based evaluation framework is used to give detailed insights of the physical and economic feasibilities of each option. Estimation of marginal benefits of adaptation options are carried out through a step-by-step cost-benefit analysis. The results are aimed at providing important information for decision making on how best to adapt to urban pluvial flooding due to climate impacts in cities.

Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hensley, Scott; Michel, Thierry; Madsen, Soren; Chapin, Elaine; Rodriguez, Ernesto

2004-01-01

A computer program implements a methodology, denoted probabilistic risk reduction, that is intended to aid in planning the development of complex software and/or hardware systems. This methodology integrates two complementary prior methodologies: (1) that of probabilistic risk assessment and (2) a risk-based planning methodology, implemented in a prior computer program known as Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP), in which multiple requirements and the beneficial effects of risk-mitigation actions are taken into account. The present methodology and the software are able to accommodate both process knowledge (notably of the efficacy of development practices) and product knowledge (notably of the logical structure of a system, the development of which one seeks to plan). Estimates of the costs and benefits of a planned development can be derived. Functional and non-functional aspects of software can be taken into account, and trades made among them. It becomes possible to optimize the planning process in the sense that it becomes possible to select the best suite of process steps and design choices to maximize the expectation of success while remaining within budget.

ISSUES IN SEDIMENT TOXICITY AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

This paper is based on a facilitated Workshop and Roundtable Discussion of key issues in sediment toxicology and ecological risk assessment (ERA) as applied to sediments that was held at the Conference on Dredged Material Management: Options and Environmental Considerations. The ...

ARAMIS project: a comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries.

PubMed

Delvosalle, Christian; Fievez, Cécile; Pipart, Aurore; Debray, Bruno

2006-03-31

In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term "major accidents" must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed. A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called "risk matrix", crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents. This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage.

Use of the Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique can lead to more robust risk control options.

PubMed

Card, Alan J; Simsekler, Mecit Can Emre; Clark, Michael; Ward, James R; Clarkson, P John

2014-01-01

Risk assessment is widely used to improve patient safety, but healthcare workers are not trained to design robust solutions to the risks they uncover. This leads to an overreliance on the weakest category of risk control recommendations: administrative controls. Increasing the proportion of non-administrative risk control options (NARCOs) generated would enable (though not ensure) the adoption of more robust solutions. Experimentally assess a method for generating stronger risk controls: The Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique. Participants generated risk control options in response to two patient safety scenarios. Scenario 1 (baseline): All participants used current practice (unstructured brainstorming). Scenario 2: Control group used current practice; intervention group used the GO-ARC Technique. To control for individual differences between participants, analysis focused on the change in the proportion of NARCOs for each group. Proportion of NARCOs decreased from 0.18 at baseline to 0.12. Intervention group: Proportion increased from 0.10 at baseline to 0.29 using the GO-ARC Technique. Results were statistically significant. There was no decrease in the number of administrative controls generated by the intervention group. The Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique appears to lead to more robust risk control options.

AN OPTIMAL MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR AIRPORT CONCRETE PAVEMENT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimomura, Taizo; Fujimori, Yuji; Kaito, Kiyoyuki; Obama, Kengo; Kobayashi, Kiyoshi

In this paper, an optimal management model is formulated for the performance-based rehabilitation/maintenance contract for airport concrete pavement, whereby two types of life cycle cost risks, i.e., ground consolidation risk and concrete depreciation risk, are explicitly considered. The non-homogenous Markov chain model is formulated to represent the deterioration processes of concrete pavement which are conditional upon the ground consolidation processes. The optimal non-homogenous Markov decision model with multiple types of risk is presented to design the optimal rehabilitation/maintenance plans. And the methodology to revise the optimal rehabilitation/maintenance plans based upon the monitoring data by the Bayesian up-to-dating rules. The validity of the methodology presented in this paper is examined based upon the case studies carried out for the H airport.

Use of generalised additive models to categorise continuous variables in clinical prediction

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In medical practice many, essentially continuous, clinical parameters tend to be categorised by physicians for ease of decision-making. Indeed, categorisation is a common practice both in medical research and in the development of clinical prediction rules, particularly where the ensuing models are to be applied in daily clinical practice to support clinicians in the decision-making process. Since the number of categories into which a continuous predictor must be categorised depends partly on the relationship between the predictor and the outcome, the need for more than two categories must be borne in mind. Methods We propose a categorisation methodology for clinical-prediction models, using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) with P-spline smoothers to determine the relationship between the continuous predictor and the outcome. The proposed method consists of creating at least one average-risk category along with high- and low-risk categories based on the GAM smooth function. We applied this methodology to a prospective cohort of patients with exacerbated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The predictors selected were respiratory rate and partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the blood (PCO2), and the response variable was poor evolution. An additive logistic regression model was used to show the relationship between the covariates and the dichotomous response variable. The proposed categorisation was compared to the continuous predictor as the best option, using the AIC and AUC evaluation parameters. The sample was divided into a derivation (60%) and validation (40%) samples. The first was used to obtain the cut points while the second was used to validate the proposed methodology. Results The three-category proposal for the respiratory rate was ≤ 20;(20,24];> 24, for which the following values were obtained: AIC=314.5 and AUC=0.638. The respective values for the continuous predictor were AIC=317.1 and AUC=0.634, with no statistically significant differences being found between the two AUCs (p =0.079). The four-category proposal for PCO2 was ≤ 43;(43,52];(52,65];> 65, for which the following values were obtained: AIC=258.1 and AUC=0.81. No statistically significant differences were found between the AUC of the four-category option and that of the continuous predictor, which yielded an AIC of 250.3 and an AUC of 0.825 (p =0.115). Conclusions Our proposed method provides clinicians with the number and location of cut points for categorising variables, and performs as successfully as the original continuous predictor when it comes to developing clinical prediction rules. PMID:23802742

Risk Based Inspection Methodology and Software Applied to Atmospheric Storage Tanks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topalis, P.; Korneliussen, G.; Hermanrud, J.; Steo, Y.

2012-05-01

A new risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology and software is presented in this paper. The objective of this work is to allow management of the inspections of atmospheric storage tanks in the most efficient way, while, at the same time, accident risks are minimized. The software has been built on the new risk framework architecture, a generic platform facilitating efficient and integrated development of software applications using risk models. The framework includes a library of risk models and the user interface is automatically produced on the basis of editable schemas. This risk-framework-based RBI tool has been applied in the context of RBI for above-ground atmospheric storage tanks (AST) but it has been designed with the objective of being generic enough to allow extension to the process plants in general. This RBI methodology is an evolution of an approach and mathematical models developed for Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and the American Petroleum Institute (API). The methodology assesses damage mechanism potential, degradation rates, probability of failure (PoF), consequence of failure (CoF) in terms of environmental damage and financial loss, risk and inspection intervals and techniques. The scope includes assessment of the tank floor for soil-side external corrosion and product-side internal corrosion and the tank shell courses for atmospheric corrosion and internal thinning. It also includes preliminary assessment for brittle fracture and cracking. The data are structured according to an asset hierarchy including Plant, Production Unit, Process Unit, Tag, Part and Inspection levels and the data are inherited / defaulted seamlessly from a higher hierarchy level to a lower level. The user interface includes synchronized hierarchy tree browsing, dynamic editor and grid-view editing and active reports with drill-in capability.

76 FR 7614 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-10

... of orderly markets by helping to mitigate the potential risks associated with legging stock option... orderly markets by helping to mitigate the potential risks associated with legging stock option orders, e... markets by helping to mitigate potential risks associated with the legging of stock-option orders...

Neural Basis of Emotional Decision Making in Trait Anxiety

PubMed Central

Xu, Pengfei; Gu, Ruolei; Broster, Lucas S.; Wu, Runguo; Van Dam, Nicholas T.; Jiang, Yang; Fan, Jin

2013-01-01

Although trait anxiety has been associated with risk decision making, whether it is related to risk per se or to the feeling of the risk, as well as the underlying neurocognitive mechanisms, remains unclear. Using a decision-making task with a manipulation of frame (i.e., written description of options as a potential gain or loss) and functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the neurocognitive relationship between trait anxiety and decision making. The classic framing effect was observed: participants chose the safe option when it was described as a potential gain, but they avoided the same option when it was described as a potential loss. Most importantly, trait anxiety was positively correlated with this behavioral bias. Trait anxiety was also positively correlated with amygdala-based “emotional” system activation and its coupling with the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) when decisions were consistent with the framing effect, but negatively correlated with the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC)-based “analytic” system activation and its connectivity to the vmPFC when decisions ran counter to the framing effect. Our findings suggest that trait anxiety is not associated with subjective risk preference but an evaluative bias of emotional information in decision making, underpinned by a hyperactive emotional system and a hypoactive analytic system in the brain. PMID:24259585

Neural basis of emotional decision making in trait anxiety.

PubMed

Xu, Pengfei; Gu, Ruolei; Broster, Lucas S; Wu, Runguo; Van Dam, Nicholas T; Jiang, Yang; Fan, Jin; Luo, Yue-jia

2013-11-20

Although trait anxiety has been associated with risk decision making, whether it is related to risk per se or to the feeling of the risk, as well as the underlying neurocognitive mechanisms, remains unclear. Using a decision-making task with a manipulation of frame (i.e., written description of options as a potential gain or loss) and functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the neurocognitive relationship between trait anxiety and decision making. The classic framing effect was observed: participants chose the safe option when it was described as a potential gain, but they avoided the same option when it was described as a potential loss. Most importantly, trait anxiety was positively correlated with this behavioral bias. Trait anxiety was also positively correlated with amygdala-based "emotional" system activation and its coupling with the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) when decisions were consistent with the framing effect, but negatively correlated with the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC)-based "analytic" system activation and its connectivity to the vmPFC when decisions ran counter to the framing effect. Our findings suggest that trait anxiety is not associated with subjective risk preference but an evaluative bias of emotional information in decision making, underpinned by a hyperactive emotional system and a hypoactive analytic system in the brain.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 2: Software documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflights systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for design, failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Impact Assessment and Environmental Evaluation of Various Ammonia Production Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bicer, Yusuf; Dincer, Ibrahim; Vezina, Greg; Raso, Frank

2017-05-01

In the current study, conventional resources-based ammonia generation routes are comparatively studied through a comprehensive life cycle assessment. The selected ammonia generation options range from mostly used steam methane reforming to partial oxidation of heavy oil. The chosen ammonia synthesis process is the most common commercially available Haber-Bosch process. The essential energy input for the methods are used from various conventional resources such as coal, nuclear, natural gas and heavy oil. Using the life cycle assessment methodology, the environmental impacts of selected methods are identified and quantified from cradle to gate. The life cycle assessment outcomes of the conventional resources based ammonia production routes show that nuclear electrolysis-based ammonia generation method yields the lowest global warming and climate change impacts while the coal-based electrolysis options bring higher environmental problems. The calculated greenhouse gas emission from nuclear-based electrolysis is 0.48 kg CO2 equivalent while it is 13.6 kg CO2 per kg of ammonia for coal-based electrolysis method.

Impact Assessment and Environmental Evaluation of Various Ammonia Production Processes.

PubMed

Bicer, Yusuf; Dincer, Ibrahim; Vezina, Greg; Raso, Frank

2017-05-01

In the current study, conventional resources-based ammonia generation routes are comparatively studied through a comprehensive life cycle assessment. The selected ammonia generation options range from mostly used steam methane reforming to partial oxidation of heavy oil. The chosen ammonia synthesis process is the most common commercially available Haber-Bosch process. The essential energy input for the methods are used from various conventional resources such as coal, nuclear, natural gas and heavy oil. Using the life cycle assessment methodology, the environmental impacts of selected methods are identified and quantified from cradle to gate. The life cycle assessment outcomes of the conventional resources based ammonia production routes show that nuclear electrolysis-based ammonia generation method yields the lowest global warming and climate change impacts while the coal-based electrolysis options bring higher environmental problems. The calculated greenhouse gas emission from nuclear-based electrolysis is 0.48 kg CO 2 equivalent while it is 13.6 kg CO 2 per kg of ammonia for coal-based electrolysis method.

42 CFR 413.337 - Methodology for calculating the prospective payment rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

...-STAGE RENAL DISEASE SERVICES; OPTIONAL PROSPECTIVELY DETERMINED PAYMENT RATES FOR SKILLED NURSING FACILITIES Prospective Payment for Skilled Nursing Facilities § 413.337 Methodology for calculating the...

42 CFR 413.337 - Methodology for calculating the prospective payment rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...-STAGE RENAL DISEASE SERVICES; OPTIONAL PROSPECTIVELY DETERMINED PAYMENT RATES FOR SKILLED NURSING FACILITIES Prospective Payment for Skilled Nursing Facilities § 413.337 Methodology for calculating the...

Risky business: rhesus monkeys exhibit persistent preferences for risky options.

PubMed

Xu, Eric R; Kralik, Jerald D

2014-01-01

Rhesus monkeys have been shown to prefer risky over safe options in experiential decision-making tasks. These findings might be due, however, to specific contextual factors, such as small amounts of fluid reward and minimal costs for risk-taking. To better understand the factors affecting decision-making under risk in rhesus monkeys, we tested multiple factors designed to increase the stakes including larger reward amounts, distinct food items rather than fluid reward, a smaller number of trials per session, and risky options with greater variation that also included non-rewarded outcomes. We found a consistent preference for risky options, except when the expected value of the safe option was greater than the risky option. Thus, with equivalent mean utilities between the safe and risky options, rhesus monkeys appear to have a robust preference for the risky options in a broad range of circumstances, akin to the preferences found in human children and some adults in similar tasks. One account for this result is that monkeys make their choices based on the salience of the largest payoff, without integrating likelihood and value across trials. A related idea is that they fail to override an impulsive tendency to select the option with the potential to obtain the highest possible outcome. Our results rule out strict versions of both accounts and contribute to an understanding of the diversity of risky decision-making among primates.

Methodological Challenges in Research on Sexual Risk Behavior: I. Item Content, Scaling, and Data Analytical Options

PubMed Central

Schroder, Kerstin E. E.; Carey, Michael P.; Vanable, Peter A.

2008-01-01

Investigation of sexual behavior involves many challenges, including how to assess sexual behavior and how to analyze the resulting data. Sexual behavior can be assessed using absolute frequency measures (also known as “counts”) or with relative frequency measures (e.g., rating scales ranging from “never” to “always”). We discuss these two assessment approaches in the context of research on HIV risk behavior. We conclude that these two approaches yield non-redundant information and, more importantly, that only data yielding information about the absolute frequency of risk behavior have the potential to serve as valid indicators of HIV contraction risk. However, analyses of count data may be challenging due to non-normal distributions with many outliers. Therefore, we identify new and powerful data analytical solutions that have been developed recently to analyze count data, and discuss limitations of a commonly applied method (viz., ANCOVA using baseline scores as covariates). PMID:14534027

Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.E.

1994-12-31

The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey,more » renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.« less

Development and application of a safety assessment methodology for waste disposals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Little, R.H.; Torres, C.; Schaller, K.H.

1996-12-31

As part of a European Commission funded research programme, QuantiSci (formerly the Environmental Division of Intera Information Technologies) and Instituto de Medio Ambiente of the Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas Medioambientales y Tecnologicas (IMA/CIEMAT) have developed and applied a comprehensive, yet practicable, assessment methodology for post-disposal safety assessment of land-based disposal facilities. This Safety Assessment Comparison (SACO) Methodology employs a systematic approach to the collection, evaluation and use of waste and disposal system data. It can be used to assess engineered barrier performance, the attenuating properties of host geological formations, and the long term impacts of a facility on the environmentmore » and human health, as well as allowing the comparison of different disposal options for radioactive, mixed and non-radioactive wastes. This paper describes the development of the methodology and illustrates its use.« less

Economical and environmental analysis of thermal and photovoltaic solar energy as source of heat for industrial processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Aparicio, Elena; Lillo-Bravo, Isidoro; Moreno-Tejera, Sara; Silva-Pérez, Manuel

2017-06-01

Thermal energy for industrial processes can be generated using thermal (ST) or photovoltaic (PV) solar energy. ST energy has traditionally been the most favorable option due to its cost and efficiency. Current costs and efficiencies values make the PV solar energy become an alternative to ST energy as supplier of industrial process heat. The aim of this study is to provide a useful tool to decide in each case which option is economically and environmentally the most suitable alternative. The methodology used to compare ST and PV systems is based on the calculation of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) avoided by using renewable technologies instead of conventional sources of energy. In both cases, these calculations depend on costs and efficiencies associated with ST or PV systems and the conversion factor from thermal or electrical energy to GHG. To make these calculations, a series of hypotheses are assumed related to consumer and energy prices, operation, maintenance and replacement costs, lifetime of the system or working temperature of the industrial process. This study applies the methodology at five different sites which have been selected taking into account their radiometric and meteorological characteristics. In the case of ST energy three technologies are taken into account, compound parabolic concentrator (CPC), linear Fresnel collector (LFC) and parabolic trough collector (PTC). The PV option includes two ways of use of generated electricity, an electrical resistance or a combination of an electrical resistance and a heat pump (HP). Current values of costs and efficiencies make ST system remains as the most favorable option. These parameters may vary significantly over time. The evolution of these parameters may convert PV systems into the most favorable option for particular applications.

A new methodology for dynamic modelling of health risks arising from wastewater influenced urban flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jørgensen, Claus; Mark, Ole; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Hammond, Michael; Khan, David M.; Erichsen, Anders; Dorrit Enevoldsen, Ann; Heinicke, Gerald; Helwigh, Birgitte

2015-04-01

Indroduction Urban flooding due to rainfall exceeding the design capacity of drainage systems is a global problem and it has significant economic and social consequences. While the cost of the direct flood damages of urban flooding is well understood, the indirect damages, like the water borne diseases is in general still poorly understood. Climate changes are expected to increase the frequency of urban flooding in many countries which is likely to increase water borne diseases. Diarrheal diseases are most prevalent in developing countries, where poor sanitation, poor drinking water and poor surface water quality causes a high disease burden and mortality, especially during floods. The level of water borne diarrhea in countries with well-developed water and waste water infrastructure has been reduced to an acceptable level, and the population in general do not consider waste water as being a health risk. Hence, exposure to wastewater influenced urban flood water still has the potential to cause transmission of diarrheal diseases. When managing urban flooding and planning urban climate change adaptations, health risks are rarely taken into consideration. This paper outlines a novel methodology for linking dynamic urban flood modelling with Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). This provides a unique possibility for understanding the interaction between urban flooding and the health risks caused by direct human contact with flood water and provides an option for reducing the burden of disease in the population through the use of intelligent urban flood risk management. Methodology We have linked hydrodynamic urban flood modelling with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to determine the risk of infection caused by exposure to wastewater influenced urban flood water. The deterministic model MIKE Flood, which integrates the sewer network model in MIKE Urban and the 2D surface model MIKE21, was used to calculate the concentration of pathogens in the flood water, based on either measured waste water pathogen concentrations or on assumptions regarding the prevalence of infections in the population. The exposure (dosage) to pathogens was estimated by multiplying the concentration with literature values for the ingestion of water for different exposure groups (e.g. children, adults). The probability of infection was determined by applying dose response relations and MonteCarlo simulation. The methodology is demonstrated on two cases, i.e one case from a developing country with poor sanitation and one case from a developed country, where climate adaptation is the main issue: The risk of cholera in the City of Dhaka, Bangladesh during a flood event 2004, and the risk of bacterial and viral infections of during a flood event in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2011. Results PIC The historical flood events in Dhaka (2004) and Copenhagen (2011) were successfully modelled. The urban flood model was successfully coupled to QMRA. An example of the results of the quantitative microbial risk assessment given as the average estimated risk of cholera infection for children below 5 years living in slum areas in Dhaka is shown in the figure. Similarly, the risk of infection during the flood event in Copenhagen will be presented in the article. Conclusions We have developed a methodology for the dynamic modeling of the risk of infection during waste water influenced urban flooding. The outcome of the modelling exercise indicates that direct contact with polluted flood water is a likely route of transmission of cholera in Dhaka, and bacterial and viral infectious diseases in Copenhagen. It demonstrates the applicability and the potential for linking urban flood models with QMRA in order to identify interventions to reduce the burden of disease on the population in Dhaka City and Copenhagen.

Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators: application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathoma-Köhle, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of the physical vulnerability of elements at risk as part of the risk analysis is an essential aspect for the development of strategies and structural measures for risk reduction. Understanding, analysing and, if possible, quantifying physical vulnerability is a prerequisite for designing strategies and adopting tools for its reduction. The most common methods for assessing physical vulnerability are vulnerability matrices, vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators; however, in most of the cases, these methods are used in a conflicting way rather than in combination. The article focuses on two of these methods: vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators. Vulnerability curves express physical vulnerability as a function of the intensity of the process and the degree of loss, considering, in individual cases only, some structural characteristics of the affected buildings. However, a considerable amount of studies argue that vulnerability assessment should focus on the identification of these variables that influence the vulnerability of an element at risk (vulnerability indicators). In this study, an indicator-based methodology (IBM) for mountain hazards including debris flow (Kappes et al., 2012) is applied to a case study for debris flows in South Tyrol, where in the past a vulnerability curve has been developed. The relatively "new" indicator-based method is being scrutinised and recommendations for its improvement are outlined. The comparison of the two methodological approaches and their results is challenging since both methodological approaches deal with vulnerability in a different way. However, it is still possible to highlight their weaknesses and strengths, show clearly that both methodologies are necessary for the assessment of physical vulnerability and provide a preliminary "holistic methodological framework" for physical vulnerability assessment showing how the two approaches may be used in combination in the future.

Treatments for compulsive buying: A systematic review of the quality, effectiveness and progression of the outcome evidence.

PubMed

Hague, Ben; Hall, Jo; Kellett, Stephen

2016-09-01

Background and aims This review appraises the progression and status of the evidence base for the treatment of compulsive buying disorder (CBD), in order to highlight what currently works and to prompt useful future research. Methods Online databases ISI Web of Knowledge, PsycINFO, and PubMed via Ovid were searched at two time points. Two quality checklists and an established model of therapy evaluation (hourglass model) evaluated the quality and progression of both psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy treatments for CBD. Uncontrolled effect sizes were calculated and meta-regression analyses were performed regarding treatment duration. Results A total of 29 articles met the inclusion criteria, which were divided into psychotherapy (n = 17) and pharmacotherapy treatments (n = 12). Of the 29 studies, only 5 studies have been tested under conditions of high methodological quality. Both forms of treatment had been evaluated in a haphazard manner across the stages of the hourglass model. Although large effects were demonstrated for group psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy, such evidence of effectiveness was undermined by poor study quality and risk of publication bias. Long-term CBD treatment was associated with improved outcome with pharmacotherapy, but not when delivering psychotherapy. Discussion Group psychotherapy currently appears the most promising treatment option for CBD. Poor methodological control and sporadic evaluation of specific treatments have slowed the generation of a convincing evidence base for CBD treatment. Defining the active ingredients of effective CBD treatment is a key research goal.

Treatments for compulsive buying: A systematic review of the quality, effectiveness and progression of the outcome evidence

PubMed Central

Hague, Ben; Hall, Jo; Kellett, Stephen

2016-01-01

Background and aims This review appraises the progression and status of the evidence base for the treatment of compulsive buying disorder (CBD), in order to highlight what currently works and to prompt useful future research. Methods Online databases ISI Web of Knowledge, PsycINFO, and PubMed via Ovid were searched at two time points. Two quality checklists and an established model of therapy evaluation (hourglass model) evaluated the quality and progression of both psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy treatments for CBD. Uncontrolled effect sizes were calculated and meta-regression analyses were performed regarding treatment duration. Results A total of 29 articles met the inclusion criteria, which were divided into psychotherapy (n = 17) and pharmacotherapy treatments (n = 12). Of the 29 studies, only 5 studies have been tested under conditions of high methodological quality. Both forms of treatment had been evaluated in a haphazard manner across the stages of the hourglass model. Although large effects were demonstrated for group psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy, such evidence of effectiveness was undermined by poor study quality and risk of publication bias. Long-term CBD treatment was associated with improved outcome with pharmacotherapy, but not when delivering psychotherapy. Discussion Group psychotherapy currently appears the most promising treatment option for CBD. Poor methodological control and sporadic evaluation of specific treatments have slowed the generation of a convincing evidence base for CBD treatment. Defining the active ingredients of effective CBD treatment is a key research goal. PMID:27640529

Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

Estimating option values of solar radiation management assuming that climate sensitivity is uncertain.

PubMed

Arino, Yosuke; Akimoto, Keigo; Sano, Fuminori; Homma, Takashi; Oda, Junichiro; Tomoda, Toshimasa

2016-05-24

Although solar radiation management (SRM) might play a role as an emergency geoengineering measure, its potential risks remain uncertain, and hence there are ethical and governance issues in the face of SRM's actual deployment. By using an integrated assessment model, we first present one possible methodology for evaluating the value arising from retaining an SRM option given the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, and also examine sensitivities of the option value to SRM's side effects (damages). Reflecting the governance challenges on immediate SRM deployment, we assume scenarios in which SRM could only be deployed with a limited degree of cooling (0.5 °C) only after 2050, when climate sensitivity uncertainty is assumed to be resolved and only when the sensitivity is found to be high (T2x = 4 °C). We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraining temperature rise as the objective. The SRM option value is originated from its rapid cooling capability that would alleviate the mitigation requirement under climate sensitivity uncertainty and thereby reduce mitigation costs. According to our estimates, the option value during 1990-2049 for a +2.4 °C target (the lowest temperature target level for which there were feasible solutions in this model study) relative to preindustrial levels were in the range between $2.5 and $5.9 trillion, taking into account the maximum level of side effects shown in the existing literature. The result indicates that lower limits of the option values for temperature targets below +2.4 °C would be greater than $2.5 trillion.

Estimating option values of solar radiation management assuming that climate sensitivity is uncertain

PubMed Central

Arino, Yosuke; Akimoto, Keigo; Sano, Fuminori; Homma, Takashi; Oda, Junichiro; Tomoda, Toshimasa

2016-01-01

Although solar radiation management (SRM) might play a role as an emergency geoengineering measure, its potential risks remain uncertain, and hence there are ethical and governance issues in the face of SRM’s actual deployment. By using an integrated assessment model, we first present one possible methodology for evaluating the value arising from retaining an SRM option given the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, and also examine sensitivities of the option value to SRM’s side effects (damages). Reflecting the governance challenges on immediate SRM deployment, we assume scenarios in which SRM could only be deployed with a limited degree of cooling (0.5 °C) only after 2050, when climate sensitivity uncertainty is assumed to be resolved and only when the sensitivity is found to be high (T2x = 4 °C). We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraining temperature rise as the objective. The SRM option value is originated from its rapid cooling capability that would alleviate the mitigation requirement under climate sensitivity uncertainty and thereby reduce mitigation costs. According to our estimates, the option value during 1990–2049 for a +2.4 °C target (the lowest temperature target level for which there were feasible solutions in this model study) relative to preindustrial levels were in the range between $2.5 and $5.9 trillion, taking into account the maximum level of side effects shown in the existing literature. The result indicates that lower limits of the option values for temperature targets below +2.4 °C would be greater than $2.5 trillion. PMID:27162346

A Total Quality-Control Plan with Right-Sized Statistical Quality-Control.

PubMed

Westgard, James O

2017-03-01

A new Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments option for risk-based quality-control (QC) plans became effective in January, 2016. Called an Individualized QC Plan, this option requires the laboratory to perform a risk assessment, develop a QC plan, and implement a QC program to monitor ongoing performance of the QC plan. Difficulties in performing a risk assessment may limit validity of an Individualized QC Plan. A better alternative is to develop a Total QC Plan including a right-sized statistical QC procedure to detect medically important errors. Westgard Sigma Rules provides a simple way to select the right control rules and the right number of control measurements. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (I) Methodology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huang, Y.-N.; Whittaker, A.S.; Luco, N.

2011-01-01

A new procedure for probabilistic seismic risk assessment of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is proposed. This procedure modifies the current procedures using tools developed recently for performance-based earthquake engineering of buildings. The proposed procedure uses (a) response-based fragility curves to represent the capacity of structural and nonstructural components of NPPs, (b) nonlinear response-history analysis to characterize the demands on those components, and (c) Monte Carlo simulations to determine the damage state of the components. The use of response-rather than ground-motion-based fragility curves enables the curves to be independent of seismic hazard and closely related to component capacity. The use of Monte Carlo procedure enables the correlation in the responses of components to be directly included in the risk assessment. An example of the methodology is presented in a companion paper to demonstrate its use and provide the technical basis for aspects of the methodology. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Systems engineering approach to environmental risk management: A case study of depleted uranium at test area C-64, Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. Master`s thesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carter, C.M.; Fortmann, K.M.; Hill, S.W.

1994-12-01

Environmental restoration is an area of concern in an environmentally conscious world. Much effort is required to clean up the environment and promote environmentally sound methods for managing current land use. In light of the public consciousness with the latter topic, the United States Air Force must also take an active role in addressing these environmental issues with respect to current and future USAF base land use. This thesis uses the systems engineering technique to assess human health risks and to evaluate risk management options with respect to depleted uranium contamination in the sampled region of Test Area (TA) C-64more » at Eglin Air Force Base (AFB). The research combines the disciplines of environmental data collection, DU soil concentration distribution modeling, ground water modeling, particle resuspension modeling, exposure assessment, health hazard assessment, and uncertainty analysis to characterize the test area. These disciplines are required to quantify current and future health risks, as well as to recommend cost effective ways to increase confidence in health risk assessment and remediation options.« less

An accurate European option pricing model under Fractional Stable Process based on Feynman Path Integral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Chao; Ma, Qinghua; Yao, Haixiang; Hou, Tiancheng

2018-03-01

In this paper, we propose to use the Fractional Stable Process (FSP) for option pricing. The FSP is one of the few candidates to directly model a number of desired empirical properties of asset price risk neutral dynamics. However, pricing the vanilla European option under FSP is difficult and problematic. In the paper, built upon the developed Feynman Path Integral inspired techniques, we present a novel computational model for option pricing, i.e. the Fractional Stable Process Path Integral (FSPPI) model under a general fractional stable distribution that tackles this problem. Numerical and empirical experiments show that the proposed pricing model provides a correction of the Black-Scholes pricing error - overpricing long term options, underpricing short term options; overpricing out-of-the-money options, underpricing in-the-money options without any additional structures such as stochastic volatility and a jump process.

Assessing Arsenic Bioavailability In Soil When In Vitro Gastrointestinal Methods Are The Only Option

EPA Science Inventory

Human health risk assessment science continues to mature with bioavailability-based risk assessment frameworks being developed and/or considered for implementation in the U.S., Canada, the European Union, Australia and other countries. Incidental ingestion is an important exposu...

Policy considerations for improving influenza vaccination rates among pregnant women.

PubMed

Mollard, Elizabeth K; Guenzel, Nicholas; Brown, Peggy A; Keeler, Heidi J; Cramer, Mary E

2014-01-01

Influenza exposure during pregnancy can cause severe health problems for both the mother and her offspring, including an increased risk of mortality. Influenza vaccination during all trimesters of pregnancy is safe and effective, and recommended by professional organizations such as the American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology. Despite these recommendations, the U.S. vaccination rates remain low in this high-risk population. A policy analysis based on the five-part method identified by Teitelbaum and Wilensky () addresses factors to consider in identifying the best voluntary policy options to improve the vaccination rates. The authors provide discussion of the background, landscape, and stakeholder interests and the pros and cons of two voluntary policy options to increase vaccination. The policy options include: (a) financial incentives for providers and (b) an education emphasis for providers and staff. The authors conclude that based on considerations of cost, provider preference, and practicality of implementation, a continuing educational intervention is the preferred policy venue to increase vaccination rates. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Daclizumab for the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Herwerth, Marina; Hemmer, Bernhard

2017-06-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a common inflammatory disease of the central nervous system. Over the last two decades, the number of therapeutic options for the treatment of relapsing remitting MS (RRMS) has been constantly growing, providing new treatment options to patients. Areas covered: Herein, the authors review the recently approved monoclonal antibody daclizumab for the treatment of RRMS. Based on original articles, they discuss its mode of action and evaluate its efficacy and safety profile compared to other available agents. Expert opinion: The IL-2 receptor modulator daclizumab is a new highly effective agent for the treatment of RRMS with novel immunomodulatory properties. Compared to interferon-beta i.m., daclizumab is more effective in reducing relapse rates and MRI activity. However, its use is limited by the risk of autoimmune disorders and hepatotoxicity. Similar to other monoclonal antibodies for RRMS, therapy with daclizumab needs a strict preselection and monitoring of patients based on individual risk benefit assessment. Given its substantial effectiveness, daclizumab can be an attractive option for patients with highly active MS.

Relative efficacy of drugs: an emerging issue between regulatory agencies and third-party payers.

PubMed

Eichler, Hans-Georg; Bloechl-Daum, Brigitte; Abadie, Eric; Barnett, David; König, Franz; Pearson, Steven

2010-04-01

Drug regulatory agencies have traditionally assessed the quality, safety and efficacy of drugs, and the current paradigm dictates that a new drug should be licensed when the benefits outweigh the risks. By contrast, third-party payers base their reimbursement decisions predominantly on the health benefits of the drug relative to existing treatment options (termed relative efficacy; RE). Over the past decade, the role of payers has become more prominent, and time-to-market no longer means time-to-licensing but time-to-reimbursement. Companies now have to satisfy the sometimes divergent needs of both regulators and payers, and to address RE during the pre-marketing stages. This article describes the current political background to the RE debate and presents the scientific and methodological challenges as they relate to RE assessment. In addition, we explain the impact of RE on drug development, and speculate on future developments and actions that are likely to be required from key players.

Public Education Finance Systems in the United States and Funding Policies for Populations with Special Educational Needs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Verstegen, Deborah A.

2011-01-01

This research investigates state finance policies for public education using survey methodology. The purpose is to update previous work and the existing knowledge base in the field as well as to provide a compendium of finance and policy options that are used across the states to finance public elementary and secondary schools. Chief state school…

Advances in soil erosion modelling through remote sensing data availability at European scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagos, Panos; Karydas, Christos; Borrelli, Pasqualle; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin

2014-08-01

Under the European Union's Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection, the European Commission's Directorate-General for the Environment (DG Environment) has identified the mitigation of soil losses by erosion as a priority area. Policy makers call for an overall assessment of soil erosion in their geographical area of interest. They have asked that risk areas for soil erosion be mapped under present land use and climate conditions, and that appropriate measures be taken to control erosion within the legal and social context of natural resource management. Remote sensing data help to better assessment of factors that control erosion, such as vegetation coverage, slope length and slope angle. In this context, the data availability of remote sensing data during the past decade facilitates the more precise estimation of soil erosion risk. Following the principles of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), various options to calculate vegetative cover management (C-factor) have been investigated. The use of the CORINE Land Cover dataset in combination with lookup table values taken from the literature is presented as an option that has the advantage of a coherent input dataset but with the drawback of static input. Recent developments in the Copernicus programme have made detailed datasets available on land cover, leaf area index and base soil characteristics. These dynamic datasets allow for seasonal estimates of vegetation coverage, and their application in the G2 soil erosion model which represents a recent approach to the seasonal monitoring of soil erosion. The use of phenological datasets and the LUCAS land use/cover survey are proposed as auxiliary information in the selection of the best methodology.

Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC): introducing a novel technique.

PubMed

Card, Alan J; Ward, James R; Clarkson, P John

2014-01-01

After investing significant amounts of time and money in conducting formal risk assessments, such as root cause analysis (RCA) or failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), healthcare workers are left to their own devices in generating high-quality risk control options. They often experience difficulty in doing so, and tend toward an overreliance on administrative controls (the weakest category in the hierarchy of risk controls). This has important implications for patient safety and the cost effectiveness of risk management operations. This paper describes a before and after pilot study of the Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) technique, a novel tool to improve the quality of the risk control options generation process. The quantity, quality (using the three-tiered hierarchy of risk controls), variety, and novelty of risk controls generated. Use of the GO-ARC technique was associated with improvement on all measures. While this pilot study has some notable limitations, it appears that the GO-ARC technique improved the risk control options generation process. Further research is needed to confirm this finding. It is also important to note that improved risk control options are a necessary, but not sufficient, step toward the implementation of more robust risk controls. © 2013 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

Risk analysis based on hazards interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Trasforini, Eva; De Angeli, Silvia; Becker, Joost

2017-04-01

Despite an increasing need for open, transparent, and credible multi-hazard risk assessment methods, models, and tools, the availability of comprehensive risk information needed to inform disaster risk reduction is limited, and the level of interaction across hazards is not systematically analysed. Risk assessment methodologies for different hazards often produce risk metrics that are not comparable. Hazard interactions (consecutive occurrence two or more different events) are generally neglected, resulting in strongly underestimated risk assessment in the most exposed areas. This study presents cases of interaction between different hazards, showing how subsidence can affect coastal and river flood risk (Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia) or how flood risk is modified after a seismic event (Italy). The analysis of well documented real study cases, based on a combination between Earth Observation and in-situ data, would serve as basis the formalisation of a multi-hazard methodology, identifying gaps and research frontiers. Multi-hazard risk analysis is performed through the RASOR platform (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation Of Risk). A scenario-driven query system allow users to simulate future scenarios based on existing and assumed conditions, to compare with historical scenarios, and to model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event (www.rasor.eu).

Can't get no satisfaction? Will pay for performance help?: toward an economic framework for understanding performance-based risk-sharing agreements for innovative medical products.

PubMed

Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis P

2010-01-01

This article examines performance-based risk-sharing agreements for pharmaceuticals from a theoretical economic perspective. We position these agreements as a form of coverage with evidence development. New performance-based risk sharing could produce a more efficient market equilibrium, achieved by adjustment of the price post-launch to reflect outcomes combined with a new approach to the post-launch costs of evidence collection. For this to happen, the party best able to manage or to bear specific risks must do so. Willingness to bear risk will depend not only on ability to manage it, but on the degree of risk aversion. We identify three related frameworks that provide relevant insights: value of information, real option theory and money-back guarantees. We identify four categories of risk sharing: budget impact, price discounting, outcomes uncertainty and subgroup uncertainty. We conclude that a value of information/real option framework is likely to be the most helpful approach for understanding the costs and benefits of risk sharing. There are a number of factors that are likely to be crucial in determining if performance-based or risk-sharing agreements are efficient and likely to become more important in the future: (i) the cost and practicality of post-launch evidence collection relative to pre-launch; (ii) the feasibility of coverage with evidence development without a pre-agreed contract as to how the evidence will be used to adjust price, revenues or use, in which uncertainty around the pay-off to additional research will reduce the incentive for the manufacturer to collect the information; (iii) the difficulty of writing and policing risk-sharing agreements; (iv) the degree of risk aversion (and therefore opportunity to trade) on the part of payers and manufacturers; and (v) the extent of transferability of data from one country setting to another to support coverage with evidence development in a risk-sharing framework. There is no doubt that--in principle--risk sharing can provide manufacturers and payers additional real options that increase overall efficiency. Given the lack of empirical evidence on the success of schemes already agreed and on the issues we set out above, it is too early to tell if the recent surge of interest in these arrangements is likely to be a trend or only a fad.

Mode Equivalence of Health Indicators Between Data Collection Modes and Mixed-Mode Survey Designs in Population-Based Health Interview Surveys for Children and Adolescents: Methodological Study

PubMed Central

Hoffmann, Robert; Houben, Robin; Krause, Laura; Kamtsiuris, Panagiotis; Gößwald, Antje

2018-01-01

Background The implementation of an Internet option in an existing public health interview survey using a mixed-mode design is attractive because of lower costs and faster data availability. Additionally, mixed-mode surveys can increase response rates and improve sample composition. However, mixed-mode designs can increase the risk of measurement error (mode effects). Objective This study aimed to determine whether the prevalence rates or mean values of self- and parent-reported health indicators for children and adolescents aged 0-17 years differ between self-administered paper-based questionnaires (SAQ-paper) and self-administered Web-based questionnaires (SAQ-Web), as well as between a single-mode control group and different mixed-mode groups. Methods Data were collected for a methodological pilot of the third wave of the "German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents". Questionnaires were completed by parents or adolescents. A population-based sample of 11,140 children and adolescents aged 0-17 years was randomly allocated to 4 survey designs—a single-mode control group with paper-and-pencil questionnaires only (n=970 parents, n=343 adolescents)—and 3 mixed-mode designs, all of which offered Web-based questionnaire options. In the concurrent mixed-mode design, both questionnaires were offered at the same time (n=946 parents, n=290 adolescents); in the sequential mixed-mode design, the SAQ-Web was sent first, followed by the paper questionnaire along with a reminder (n=854 parents, n=269 adolescents); and in the preselect mixed-mode design, both options were offered and the respondents were asked to request the desired type of questionnaire (n=698 parents, n=292 adolescents). In total, 3468 questionnaires of parents of children aged 0-17 years (SAQ-Web: n=708; SAQ-paper: n=2760) and 1194 questionnaires of adolescents aged 11-17 years (SAQ-Web: n=299; SAQ-paper: n=895) were analyzed. Sociodemographic characteristics and a broad range of health indicators for children and adolescents were compared by survey design and data collection mode by calculating predictive margins from regression models. Results There were no statistically significant differences in sociodemographic characteristics or health indicators between the single-mode control group and any of the mixed-mode survey designs. Differences in sociodemographic characteristics between SAQ-Web and SAQ-paper were found. Web respondents were more likely to be male, have higher levels of education, and higher household income compared with paper respondents. After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, only one of the 38 analyzed health indicators showed different prevalence rates between the data collection modes, with a higher prevalence rate for lifetime alcohol consumption among the online-responding adolescents (P<.001). Conclusions These results suggest that mode bias is limited in health interview surveys for children and adolescents using a mixed-mode design with Web-based and paper questionnaires. PMID:29506967

MERINOVA: Meteorological risks as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne; Oger, Robert; Marlier, Catherine; Van De Vijver, Hans; Vandermeulen, Valerie; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Mettepenningen, Evi

2013-04-01

The BELSPO funded project 'MERINOVA' deals with risks associated with extreme weather phenomena and with risks of biological origin such as pests and diseases. The major objectives of the proposed project are to characterise extreme meteorological events, assess the impact on Belgian agro-ecosystems, characterise their vulnerability and resilience to these events, and explore innovative adaptation options to agricultural risk management. The project comprises of five major parts that reflect the chain of risks: (i) Hazard: Assessing the likely frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological events by means of probability density functions; (ii) Impact: Analysing the potential bio-physical and socio-economic impact of extreme weather events on agro-ecosystems in Belgium using process-based modelling techniques commensurate with the regional scale; (iii) Vulnerability: Identifying the most vulnerable agro-ecosystems using fuzzy multi-criteria and spatial analysis; (iv) Risk Management: Uncovering innovative risk management and adaptation options using actor-network theory and fuzzy cognitive mapping techniques; and, (v) Communication: Communicating to research, policy and practitioner communities using web-based techniques. The different tasks of the MERINOVA project require expertise in several scientific disciplines: meteorology, statistics, spatial database management, agronomy, bio-physical impact modelling, socio-economic modelling, actor-network theory, fuzzy cognitive mapping techniques. These expertises are shared by the four scientific partners who each lead one work package. The MERINOVA project will concentrate on promoting a robust and flexible framework by demonstrating its performance across Belgian agro-ecosystems, and by ensuring its relevance to policy makers and practitioners. Impacts developed from physically based models will not only provide information on the state of the damage at any given time, but also assist in understanding the links between different factors causing damage and determining bio-physical vulnerability. Socio-economic impacts will enlarge the basis for vulnerability mapping, risk management and adaptation options. A strong expert and end-user network will be established to help disseminating and exploiting project results to meet user needs.

The management of women at high risk for the development of breast cancer: risk estimation and preventative strategies.

PubMed

Sakorafas, George H

2003-04-01

Despite recent progress in the diagnostic and therapeutic approaches to the management of women with breast cancer, at least one third of these women will ultimately die from their disease. This resulted in a new focus on breast cancer prevention, especially for the woman designed as "high-risk". The continuing challenge is to identify reliable markers to accurately recognize this group of women, who are more likely to develop breast cancer. This will allow a targeted specific counseling and the application of preventative measures. Management options in high-risk women include intensive cancer surveillance, chemoprevention (mainly using tamoxifen), and prophylactic surgery (preferentially total mastectomy). Cancer surveillance is the most preferred management option. Currently, no data exists comparing prophylactic mastectomy vs. surveillance vs. chemoprevention. Thus, despite significant advances in our understanding of the biology of breast cancer, many questions remain unanswered concerning the optimal management of the high-risk woman. Patient counseling has a central role in the decision-making process and should be based on a multidisciplinary approach. The individual woman will make the final decision based on the amount of risk she is willing to accept. It is hoped that other preventative methods, such as gene therapy based on an accurate identification of specific genetic changes, will be developed in the future.

Space station data system analysis/architecture study. Task 2: Options development, DR-5. Volume 3: Programmatic options

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Task 2 in the Space Station Data System (SSDS) Analysis/Architecture Study is the development of an information base that will support the conduct of trade studies and provide sufficient data to make design/programmatic decisions. This volume identifies the preferred options in the programmatic category and characterizes these options with respect to performance attributes, constraints, costs, and risks. The programmatic category includes methods used to administrate/manage the development, operation and maintenance of the SSDS. The specific areas discussed include standardization/commonality; systems management; and systems development, including hardware procurement, software development and system integration, test and verification.

Pricing geometric Asian rainbow options under fractional Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lu; Zhang, Rong; Yang, Lin; Su, Yang; Ma, Feng

2018-03-01

In this paper, we explore the pricing of the assets of Asian rainbow options under the condition that the assets have self-similar and long-range dependence characteristics. Based on the principle of no arbitrage, stochastic differential equation, and partial differential equation, we obtain the pricing formula for two-asset rainbow options under fractional Brownian motion. Next, our Monte Carlo simulation experiments show that the derived pricing formula is accurate and effective. Finally, our sensitivity analysis of the influence of important parameters, such as the risk-free rate, Hurst exponent, and correlation coefficient, on the prices of Asian rainbow options further illustrate the rationality of our pricing model.

Potential economic value of drought information to support early warning in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, S.; Iglesias, A.; Diz, A.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

We present a methodology to estimate the economic value of advanced climate information for food production in Africa under climate change scenarios. The results aim to facilitate better choices in water resources management. The methodology includes 4 sequential steps. First two contrasting management strategies (with and without early warning) are defined. Second, the associated impacts of the management actions are estimated by calculating the effect of drought in crop productivity under climate change scenarios. Third, the optimal management option is calculated as a function of the drought information and risk aversion of potential information users. Finally we use these optimal management simulations to compute the economic value of enhanced water allocation rules to support stable food production in Africa. Our results show how a timely response to climate variations can help reduce loses in food production. The proposed framework is developed within the Dewfora project (Early warning and forecasting systems to predict climate related drought vulnerability and risk in Africa) that aims to improve the knowledge on drought forecasting, warning and mitigation, and advance the understanding of climate related vulnerability to drought and to develop a prototype operational forecasting.

S3 Guideline for the treatment of psoriasis vulgaris, update - Short version part 1 - Systemic treatment.

PubMed

Nast, Alexander; Amelunxen, Lasse; Augustin, Matthias; Boehncke, Wolf-Henning; Dressler, Corinna; Gaskins, Matthew; Härle, Peter; Hoffstadt, Bernd; Klaus, Joachim; Koza, Joachim; Mrowietz, Ulrich; Ockenfels, Hans-Michael; Philipp, Sandra; Reich, Kristian; Rosenbach, Thomas; Rzany, Berthold; Schlaeger, Martin; Schmid-Ott, Gerhard; Sebastian, Michael; von Kiedrowski, Ralph; Weberschock, Tobias

2018-05-01

The German guideline for the treatment of psoriasis vulgaris was updated using GRADE methodology. The guideline is based on a systematic literature review completed on December 1, 2016, and on a formal consensus and approval process. The first section of this short version of the guideline covers systemic treatment options considered relevant by the expert panel and approved in Germany at the time of the consensus conference (acitretin, adalimumab, apremilast, cyclosporine, etanercept, fumaric acid esters, infliximab, methotrexate, secukinumab and ustekinumab). Detailed information is provided on the management and monitoring of the included treatment options. © 2018 The Authors | Journal compilation © Blackwell Verlag GmbH, Berlin.

Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.

Pathogen Treatment Guidance and Monitoring Approaches fro On-Site Non-Potable Water Reuse

EPA Science Inventory

On-site non-potable water reuse is increasingly used to augment water supplies, but traditional fecal indicator approaches for defining and monitoring exposure risks are limited when applied to these decentralized options. This session emphasizes risk-based modeling to define pat...

Prospects for public participation on nuclear risks and policy options: innovations in governance practices for sustainable development in the European Union.

PubMed

O'Connor, M; van den Hove, S

2001-09-14

We outline the potential participative governance and risk management in application to technological choices in the nuclear sector within the European Union (EU). Well-conducted public participation, stakeholder consultation and deliberation procedures can enhance the policy process and improve the robustness of strategies dealing with high-stakes investment and risk management challenges. Key nuclear issues now confronting EU member states are: public concern with large-scale environmental and health issues; the Chernobyl accident (and others less catastrophic) whose effect has been to erode public confidence and trust in the nuclear sector; the maturity of the nuclear plant, hence the emerging prominence of waste transportation, reprocessing and disposal issues as part of historical liability within the EU; the nuclear energy heritage of central and eastern European candidate countries to EU accession. The obligatory management of inherited technological risks and uncertainties on large temporal and geographical scales, is a novel feature of technology assessment and governance. Progress in the nuclear sector will aid the development of methodologies for technological foresight and risk governance in fields other than the nuclear alone.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keller, Todd M.; Benjamin, Jacob S.; Wright, Virginia L.

This paper will describe a practical methodology for understanding the cyber risk of a digital asset. This research attempts to gain a greater understanding of the cyber risk posed by a hardware-based computer asset by considering it as a sum of its hardware and software based sub-components.

Optimizing spacecraft design - optimization engine development : progress and plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornford, Steven L.; Feather, Martin S.; Dunphy, Julia R; Salcedo, Jose; Menzies, Tim

2003-01-01

At JPL and NASA, a process has been developed to perform life cycle risk management. This process requires users to identify: goals and objectives to be achieved (and their relative priorities), the various risks to achieving those goals and objectives, and options for risk mitigation (prevention, detection ahead of time, and alleviation). Risks are broadly defined to include the risk of failing to design a system with adequate performance, compatibility and robustness in addition to more traditional implementation and operational risks. The options for mitigating these different kinds of risks can include architectural and design choices, technology plans and technology back-up options, test-bed and simulation options, engineering models and hardware/software development techniques and other more traditional risk reduction techniques.

Combination and selection of traffic safety expert judgments for the prevention of driving risks.

PubMed

Cabello, Enrique; Conde, Cristina; de Diego, Isaac Martín; Moguerza, Javier M; Redchuk, Andrés

2012-11-02

In this paper, we describe a new framework to combine experts’ judgments for the prevention of driving risks in a cabin truck. In addition, the methodology shows how to choose among the experts the one whose predictions fit best the environmental conditions. The methodology is applied over data sets obtained from a high immersive cabin truck simulator in natural driving conditions. A nonparametric model, based in Nearest Neighbors combined with Restricted Least Squared methods is developed. Three experts were asked to evaluate the driving risk using a Visual Analog Scale (VAS), in order to measure the driving risk in a truck simulator where the vehicle dynamics factors were stored. Numerical results show that the methodology is suitable for embedding in real time systems.

Groundwater contamination from waste management sites: The interaction between risk-based engineering design and regulatory policy: 2. Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massmann, Joel; Freeze, R. Allan

1987-02-01

The risk-cost-benefit analysis developed in the companion paper (J. Massmann and R. A. Freeze, this issue) is here applied to (1) an assessment of the relative worth of containment-construction activities, site-exploration activities, and monitoring activities as components of a design strategy for the owner/operator of a waste management facility; (2) an assessment of alternative policy options available to a regulatory agency; and (3) a case history. Sensitivity analyses designed to address the first issue show that the allocation of resources by the owner/operator is sensitive to the stochastic parameters used to describe the hydraulic conductivity field at a site. For the cases analyzed, the installation of a dense monitoring network is of less value to the owner/operator than a more conservative containment design. Sensitivity analyses designed to address the second issue suggest that from a regulatory perspective, design standards should be more effective than performance standards in reducing risk, and design specifications on the containment structure should be more effective than those on the monitoring network. Performance bonds posted before construction have a greater potential to influence design than prospective penalties to be imposed at the time of failure. Siting on low-conductivity deposits is a more effective method of risk reduction than any form of regulatory influence. Results of the case history indicate that the methodology can be successfully applied at field sites.

Development document for final best conventional technology effluent limitations guidelines for the pharmaceutical manufacturing point source category. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Farrell, T.; Hund, F.

1986-12-01

The document presents the technical rationale for best conventional technology (BCI) effluent limitations guidelines for the pharmaceutical manufacturing point-source category as required by the Clean Water Act of 1977 (P.L. 95-217, the Act). The document describes the technologies considered as the bases for BCT limitations. Section II of this document summarizes the rulemaking process. Sections III through V describe the technical data and engineering analyses used to develop the regulatory technology options. The costs and removals associated with each technology option for each plant and the application of the BCT cost test methodology are presented in Section VI. BCI limitationsmore » bases on the best conventional pollutant control technology are to be achieved by existing direct-discharging facilities.« less

Abstract analysis method facilitates filtering low-methodological quality and high-bias risk systematic reviews on psoriasis interventions.

PubMed

Gómez-García, Francisco; Ruano, Juan; Aguilar-Luque, Macarena; Alcalde-Mellado, Patricia; Gay-Mimbrera, Jesús; Hernández-Romero, José Luis; Sanz-Cabanillas, Juan Luis; Maestre-López, Beatriz; González-Padilla, Marcelino; Carmona-Fernández, Pedro J; García-Nieto, Antonio Vélez; Isla-Tejera, Beatriz

2017-12-29

Article summaries' information and structure may influence researchers/clinicians' decisions to conduct deeper full-text analyses. Specifically, abstracts of systematic reviews (SRs) and meta-analyses (MA) should provide structured summaries for quick assessment. This study explored a method for determining the methodological quality and bias risk of full-text reviews using abstract information alone. Systematic literature searches for SRs and/or MA about psoriasis were undertaken on MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane database. For each review, quality, abstract-reporting completeness, full-text methodological quality, and bias risk were evaluated using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses for abstracts (PRISMA-A), Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR), and ROBIS tools, respectively. Article-, author-, and journal-derived metadata were systematically extracted from eligible studies using a piloted template, and explanatory variables concerning abstract-reporting quality were assessed using univariate and multivariate-regression models. Two classification models concerning SRs' methodological quality and bias risk were developed based on per-item and total PRISMA-A scores and decision-tree algorithms. This work was supported, in part, by project ICI1400136 (JR). No funding was received from any pharmaceutical company. This study analysed 139 SRs on psoriasis interventions. On average, they featured 56.7% of PRISMA-A items. The mean total PRISMA-A score was significantly higher for high-methodological-quality SRs than for moderate- and low-methodological-quality reviews. SRs with low-bias risk showed higher total PRISMA-A values than reviews with high-bias risk. In the final model, only 'authors per review > 6' (OR: 1.098; 95%CI: 1.012-1.194), 'academic source of funding' (OR: 3.630; 95%CI: 1.788-7.542), and 'PRISMA-endorsed journal' (OR: 4.370; 95%CI: 1.785-10.98) predicted PRISMA-A variability. Reviews with a total PRISMA-A score < 6, lacking identification as SR or MA in the title, and lacking explanation concerning bias risk assessment methods were classified as low-methodological quality. Abstracts with a total PRISMA-A score ≥ 9, including main outcomes results and explanation bias risk assessment method were classified as having low-bias risk. The methodological quality and bias risk of SRs may be determined by abstract's quality and completeness analyses. Our proposal aimed to facilitate synthesis of evidence evaluation by clinical professionals lacking methodological skills. External validation is necessary.

Tug fleet and ground operations schedules and controls. Volume 3: Program cost estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Cost data for the tug DDT&E and operations phases are presented. Option 6 is the recommended option selected from seven options considered and was used as the basis for ground processing estimates. Option 6 provides for processing the tug in a factory clean environment in the low bay area of VAB with subsequent cleaning to visibly clean. The basis and results of the trade study to select Option 6 processing plan is included. Cost estimating methodology, a work breakdown structure, and a dictionary of WBS definitions is also provided.

Promising Parenting Programs for Reducing Adolescent Problem Behaviors

PubMed Central

Haggerty, Kevin P.; McGlynn-Wright, Anne; Klima, Tali

2013-01-01

Purpose Adolescent problem behaviors (substance use, delinquency, school dropout, pregnancy, and violence) are costly not only for individuals, but for entire communities. Policymakers and practitioners that are interested in preventing these problem behaviors are faced with many programming options. In this review, we discuss two criteria for selecting relevant parenting programs, and provide five examples of such programs. Design/methodology/approach The first criterion for program selection is theory based. Well-supported theories, such as the social development model, have laid out key family-based risk and protective factors for problem behavior. Programs that target these risk and protective factors are more likely to be effective. Second, programs should have demonstrated efficacy; these interventions have been called “evidence-based programs” (EBP). This review highlights the importance of evidence from rigorous research designs, such as randomized clinical trials, in order to establish program efficacy. Findings Nurse-Family Partnership, The Incredible Years, Positive Parenting Program, Strengthening Families 10–14, and Staying Connected with Your Teen are examined. The unique features of each program are briefly presented. Evidence showing impact on family risk and protective factors, as well as long-term problem behaviors, is reviewed. Finally, a measure of cost effectiveness of each program is provided. Originality/value We propose that not all programs are of equal value, and suggest two simple criteria for selecting a parenting program with a high likelihood for positive outcomes. Furthermore, although this review is not exhaustive, the five examples of EBPs offer a good start for policymakers and practitioners seeking to implement effective programs in their communities. Thus, this paper offers practical suggestions for those grappling with investments in child and adolescent programs on the ground. PMID:24416068

Development of a tool to improve the quality of decision making in atrial fibrillation

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Decision-making about appropriate therapy to reduce the stroke risk associated with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) involves the consideration of trade-offs among the benefits, risks, and inconveniences of different treatment options. The objective of this paper is to describe the development of a decision support tool for NVAF based on the provision of individualized risk estimates for stroke and bleeding and on preparing patients to communicate with their physicians about their values and potential treatment options. Methods We developed a tool based on the principles of the International Patient Decision Aids Standards. The tool focuses on the patient-physician dyad as the decision-making unit and emphasizes improving the interaction between the two. It is built on the recognition that the application of patient values to a specific treatment decision is complex and that the final treatment choice is best made through a process of patient-clinician communication. Results The tool provides education incorporating patients ' illness perceptions to explain the relationship between NVAF and stroke, and then presents individualized risk estimates, derived using separate risk calculators for stroke and bleeding over a clinically meaningful time period (5 years) associated with no treatment, aspirin, and warfarin. Sequelae of both stroke and bleeding outcomes are also described. Patients are encouraged to verbalize how they value the incremental risks and benefits associated with each option and write down specific concerns to address with their physician. A physician prompt to encourage patients to discuss their opinions is included as part of the decision support tool. In pilot testing with 11 participants (mean age 78 ± 9 years, 64% with ≤ high-school education), 8 (72%) rated ease of completion as "very easy," and 9 (81%) rated amount of information as "just right." Conclusions The risks and benefits of different treatment options for reduction of stroke in NVAF vary widely according to patients' comorbidities. This tool facilitates the provision of individualized outcome data and encourages patients to communicate with their physicians about these risks and benefits. Future studies will examine whether use of the tool is associated with improved quality of decision making. PMID:21977943

Simulation software: engineer processes before reengineering.

PubMed

Lepley, C J

2001-01-01

People make decisions all the time using intuition. But what happens when you are asked: "Are you sure your predictions are accurate? How much will a mistake cost? What are the risks associated with this change?" Once a new process is engineered, it is difficult to analyze what would have been different if other options had been chosen. Simulating a process can help senior clinical officers solve complex patient flow problems and avoid wasted efforts. Simulation software can give you the data you need to make decisions. The author introduces concepts, methodologies, and applications of computer aided simulation to illustrate their use in making decisions to improve workflow design.

Fiber-Based Lasers as an Option for GRACE Follow-On Light Source

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Camp, Jordan

2010-01-01

Fiber based lasers offer a number of attractive characteristics for space application: state of the art laser technology, leverage of design and reliability from the substantial investments of the telecon industry, and convenient redundancy of higher risk components through fiber splicing. At NASA/Goddard we are currently investigating three GFO fiber-based laser options: a fiber oscillator built in our laboratory; an effort to space qualify a commercial design that uses a proprietary high-gain fiber cavity; and the space qualification of a promising new commercial external cavity laser, notable for its low-mass, compact design. In my talk I will outline these efforts, and suggest that the GFO Project may soon have the option of a US laser vendor for its light source.

On CAPM and Black-Scholes differing risk-return strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.; Gunaratne, Gemunu H.

2003-11-01

In their path-finding 1973 paper, Black and Scholes presented two separate derivations of their famous option pricing partial differential equation. The second derivation was from the standpoint that was Black's original motivation, namely, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). We show here, in contrast, that the option valuation is not uniquely determined; in particular, strategies based on the delta-hedge and CAPM provide different valuations of an option although both hedges are instantaneouly riskfree. Second, we show explicitly that CAPM is not, as economists claim, an equilibrium theory.

Sources of uncertanity as a basis to fill the information gap in a response to flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kekez, Toni; Knezic, Snjezana

2016-04-01

Taking into account uncertainties in flood risk management remains a challenge due to difficulties in choosing adequate structural and/or non-structural risk management options. Despite stated measures wrong decisions are often being made when flood occurs. Parameter and structural uncertainties which include model and observation errors as well as lack of knowledge about system characteristics are the main considerations. Real time flood risk assessment methods are predominantly based on measured water level values and vulnerability as well as other relevant characteristics of flood affected area. The goal of this research is to identify sources of uncertainties and to minimize information gap between the point where the water level is measured and the affected area, taking into consideration main uncertainties that can affect risk value at the observed point or section of the river. Sources of uncertainties are identified and determined using system analysis approach and relevant uncertainties are included in the risk assessment model. With such methodological approach it is possible to increase response time with more effective risk assessment which includes uncertainty propagation model. Response phase could be better planned with adequate early warning systems resulting in more time and less costs to help affected areas and save human lives. Reliable and precise information is necessary to raise emergency operability level in order to enhance safety of citizens and reducing possible damage. The results of the EPISECC (EU funded FP7) project are used to validate potential benefits of this research in order to improve flood risk management and response methods. EPISECC aims at developing a concept of a common European Information Space for disaster response which, among other disasters, considers the floods.

Technical and economic assessment of processes for the production of butanol and acetone. Phase two: analysis of research advances. Energy Conversion and Utilization Technologies Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1984-08-01

The initial objective of this work was to develop a methodology for analyzing the impact of technological advances as a tool to help establish priorities for R and D options in the field of biocatalysis. As an example of a biocatalyzed process, butanol/acetone fermentation (ABE process) was selected as the specific topic of study. A base case model characterizing the technology and economics associated with the ABE process was developed in the previous first phase of study. The project objectives were broadened in this second phase of work to provide parametric estimates of the economic and energy impacts of amore » variety of research advances in the hydrolysis, fermentation and purification sections of the process. The research advances analyzed in this study were based on a comprehensive literature review. The six process options analyzed were: continuous ABE fermentaton; vacuum ABE fermentation; Baelene solvent extraction; HRI's Lignol process; improved prehydrolysis/dual enzyme hydrolysis; and improved microorganism tolerance to butanol toxicity. Of the six options analyzed, only improved microorganism tolerance to butanol toxicity had a significant positive effect on energy efficiency and economics. This particular process option reduced the base case production cost (including 10% DCF return) by 20% and energy consumption by 16%. Figures and tables.« less

A macro environmental risk assessment methodology for establishing priorities among risks to human health and the environment in the Philippines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gernhofer, S.; Oliver, T.J.; Vasquez, R.

1994-12-31

A macro environmental risk assessment (ERA) methodology was developed for the Philippine Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) as part of the US Agency for International Development Industrial Environmental Management Project. The DENR allocates its limited resources to mitigate those environmental problems that pose the greatest threat to human health and the environment. The National Regional Industry Prioritization Strategy (NRIPS) methodology was developed as a risk assessment tool to establish a national ranking of industrial facilities. The ranking establishes regional and national priorities, based on risk factors, that DENR can use to determine the most effective allocation of itsmore » limited resources. NRIPS is a systematic framework that examines the potential risk to human health and the environment from hazardous substances released from a facility, and, in doing so, generates a relative numerical score that represents that risk. More than 3,300 facilities throughout the Philippines were evaluated successfully with the NRIPS.« less

Management of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Yamauchi, Hideko; Takei, Junko

2018-02-01

Hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) syndrome represents 5-10% of all breast cancers. In Japan, the HBOC syndrome is frequently diagnosed in patients with breast cancer. Therefore, a treatment strategy combining a plan for existing breast cancer and for reduction of future breast and ovarian cancer risk is necessary. Breast cancer risk-reducing management involves three options-surveillance, chemoprevention, and risk-reducing mastectomy (RRM). RRM can prevent >90% of new breast cancers. Ovarian cancer risk management options are more limited, and risk-reduction salpingo-oophorectomy is the only option since there is no proven effective early detection method available. The local recurrence rate following breast-conserving surgery in BRCA1/2 mutation-associated breast cancer is not significantly higher than that in sporadic breast cancer. Furthermore, there is no difference in prognosis between surgical methods. Clinicians should inform patients that there are no data on long-term monitoring and fully discuss risks of re-developing breast cancer with patients when choosing the surgical method. In HBOC, BRCA1/2 mutations lead to failure of double-strand DNA break repair, with poly ADP-ribose polymerase (PARP) playing an important role in single-strand DNA nick repair. Use of PARP inhibitors in HBOC prevents DNA repair (synthetic lethality) leading to cell death. This review summarizes management of the HBOC syndrome based on recent evidence.

Assessing the Value of Information for Identifying Optimal Floodplain Management Portfolios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L.; Bates, M.; Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.

2014-12-01

Floodplain management is a complex portfolio problem that can be analyzed from an integrated perspective incorporating traditionally structural and nonstructural options. One method to identify effective strategies for preparing, responding to, and recovering from floods is to optimize for a portfolio of temporary (emergency) and permanent floodplain management options. A risk-based optimization approach to this problem assigns probabilities to specific flood events and calculates the associated expected damages. This approach is currently limited by: (1) the assumption of perfect flood forecast information, i.e. implementing temporary management activities according to the actual flood event may differ from optimizing based on forecasted information and (2) the inability to assess system resilience across a range of possible future events (risk-centric approach). Resilience is defined here as the ability of a system to absorb and recover from a severe disturbance or extreme event. In our analysis, resilience is a system property that requires integration of physical, social, and information domains. This work employs a 3-stage linear program to identify the optimal mix of floodplain management options using conditional probabilities to represent perfect and imperfect flood stages (forecast vs. actual events). We assess the value of information in terms of minimizing damage costs for two theoretical cases - urban and rural systems. We use portfolio analysis to explore how the set of optimal management options differs depending on whether the goal is for the system to be risk-adverse to a specified event or resilient over a range of events.

Adapting to a Changing Colorado River: Making Future Water Deliveries More Reliable Through Robust Management Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, D.; Bloom, E.; Fischbach, J. R.; Knopman, D.

2013-12-01

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and water management agencies representing the seven Colorado River Basin States initiated the Colorado River Basin Study in January 2010 to evaluate the resiliency of the Colorado River system over the next 50 years and compare different options for ensuring successful management of the river's resources. RAND was asked to join this Basin Study Team in January 2012 to help develop an analytic approach to identify key vulnerabilities in managing the Colorado River basin over the coming decades and to evaluate different options that could reduce this vulnerability. Using a quantitative approach for planning under uncertainty called Robust Decision Making (RDM), the RAND team assisted the Basin Study by: identifying future vulnerable conditions that could lead to imbalances that could cause the basin to be unable to meet its water delivery objectives; developing a computer-based tool to define 'portfolios' of management options reflecting different strategies for reducing basin imbalances; evaluating these portfolios across thousands of future scenarios to determine how much they could improve basin outcomes; and analyzing the results from the system simulations to identify key tradeoffs among the portfolios. This talk will describe RAND's contribution to the Basin Study, focusing on the methodologies used to to identify vulnerabilities for Upper Basin and Lower Basin water supply reliability and to compare portfolios of options. Several key findings emerged from the study. Future Streamflow and Climate Conditions Are Key: - Vulnerable conditions arise in a majority of scenarios where streamflows are lower than historical averages and where drought conditions persist for eight years or more. - Depending where the shortages occur, problems will arise for delivery obligations for the upper river basin and the lower river basin. The lower river basin is vulnerable to a broader range of plausible future conditions. Additional Investments in Infrastructure and Efficiency Could Improve Performance and Reduce Risk: - Different portfolios of water-supply and demand-reduction options offer performance trade-offs. - Different types of options in the portfolios, such as conservation, desalination, or water banking, would affect future outcomes and costs of implementation. - Analysis of all the portfolios identified important near-term, high-priority options that should be implemented in the near future, including municipal, industrial, and agricultural conservation. Other Solutions May Be Required: - If future hydrologic conditions develop in a manner consistent with the more pessimistic projections, the Basin is increasingly likely to face vulnerable conditions. The region may need to consider additional management options.

Child Maltreatment Risk Assessments: An Evaluation Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Righthand, Sue; Kerr, Bruce; Drach, Kerry

This book is a professional practice manual designed to assist clinicians in conducting forensic risk assessment in child maltreatment cases. The authors present up-to-date research findings and provide practical, fact-based information on key issues. The book serves as a reference source on procedural issues, treatment options, and risk…

An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology to assess the potential risks of engineered nanomaterials. To achieve the study objective, two major tasks are accomplished, knowledge synthesis and algorithmic computational methodology. The knowledge synthesis task is designed to capture “what is known” and to outline the gaps in knowledge from ENMs risk perspective. The algorithmic computational methodology is geared toward the provision of decisions and an understanding of the risks of ENMs along different endpoints for the constituents of the SEE complex adaptive system. The approach presented herein allows for addressing the formidable task of assessing the implications and risks of exposure to ENMs, with the long term goal to build a decision-support system to guide key stakeholders in the SEE system towards building sustainable ENMs and nano-enabled products. The following specific aims are formulated to achieve the study objective: (1) to propose a system of systems (SoS) architecture that builds a network management among the different entities in the large SEE system to track the flow of ENMs emission, fate and transport from the source to the receptor; (2) to establish a staged approach for knowledge synthesis methodo

Hazmat transport: a methodological framework for the risk analysis of marshalling yards.

PubMed

Cozzani, Valerio; Bonvicini, Sarah; Spadoni, Gigliola; Zanelli, Severino

2007-08-17

A methodological framework was outlined for the comprehensive risk assessment of marshalling yards in the context of quantified area risk analysis. Three accident typologies were considered for yards: (i) "in-transit-accident-induced" releases; (ii) "shunting-accident-induced" spills; and (iii) "non-accident-induced" leaks. A specific methodology was developed for the assessment of expected release frequencies and equivalent release diameters, based on the application of HazOp and Fault Tree techniques to reference schemes defined for the more common types of railcar vessels used for "hazmat" transportation. The approach was applied to the assessment of an extended case-study. The results evidenced that "non-accident-induced" leaks in marshalling yards represent an important contribution to the overall risk associated to these zones. Furthermore, the results confirmed the considerable role of these fixed installations to the overall risk associated to "hazmat" transportation.

Got risk? risk-centric perspective for spacecraft technology decision-making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

2004-01-01

A risk-based decision-making methodology conceived and developed at JPL and NASA has been used to aid in decision making for spacecraft technology assessment, adoption, development and operation. It takes a risk-centric perspective, through which risks are used as a reasoning step to interpose between mission objectives and risk mitigation measures.

Flood risk (d)evolution: Disentangling key drivers of flood risk change with a retro-model experiment.

PubMed

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Hofer, Patrick; Mosimann, Markus; Röthlisberger, Veronika; Ramirez, Jorge A; Keiler, Margreth; Weingartner, Rolf

2018-05-19

Flood risks are dynamically changing over time. Over decades and centuries, the main drivers for flood risk change are influenced either by perturbations or slow alterations in the natural environment or, more importantly, by socio-economic development and human interventions. However, changes in the natural and human environment are intertwined. Thus, the analysis of the main drivers for flood risk changes requires a disentangling of the individual risk components. Here, we present a method for isolating the individual effects of selected drivers of change and selected flood risk management options based on a model experiment. In contrast to purely synthetic model experiments, we built our analyses upon a retro-model consisting of several spatio-temporal stages of river morphology and settlement structure. The main advantage of this approach is that the overall long-term dynamics are known and do not have to be assumed. We used this model setup to analyse the temporal evolution of the flood risk, for an ex-post evaluation of the key drivers of change, and for analysing possible alternative pathways for flood risk evolution under different governance settings. We showed that in the study region the construction of lateral levees and the consecutive river incision are the main drivers for decreasing flood risks over the last century. A rebound effect in flood risk can be observed following an increase in settlements since the 1960s. This effect is not as relevant as the river engineering measures, but it will become increasingly relevant in the future with continued socio-economic growth. The presented approach could provide a methodological framework for studying pathways for future flood risk evolvement and for the formulation of narratives for adapting governmental flood risk strategies to the spatio-temporal dynamics in the built environment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How Can You Support RIDM/CRM/RM Through the Use of PRA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DoVemto. Tpmu

2011-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is one of key Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) tools. It is a scenario-based methodology aimed at identifying and assessing Safety and Technical Performance risks in complex technological systems.

The Impact of Online or F2F Lecture Choice on Student Achievement and Engagement in a Large Lecture-Based Science Course: Closing the Gap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Cheryl A.; Stewart, John C.

2015-01-01

Blended learning options vary and universities are exploring an assortment of instructional combinations, some involving video lectures as a replacement for face-to-face (f2f) lectures. This methodological study investigates the impact of the provision of lecture choice (online or f2f) on overall student achievement and course engagement. This…

Manned space station environmental control and life support system computer-aided technology assessment program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, J. B., Jr.; Pickett, S. J.; Sage, K. H.

1984-01-01

A computer program for assessing manned space station environmental control and life support systems technology is described. The methodology, mission model parameters, evaluation criteria, and data base for 17 candidate technologies for providing metabolic oxygen and water to the crew are discussed. Examples are presented which demonstrate the capability of the program to evaluate candidate technology options for evolving space station requirements.

Initial Analysis of and Predictive Model Development for Weather Reroute Advisory Use

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arneson, Heather M.

2016-01-01

In response to severe weather conditions, traffic management coordinators specify reroutes to route air traffic around affected regions of airspace. Providing analysis and recommendations of available reroute options would assist the traffic management coordinators in making more efficient rerouting decisions. These recommendations can be developed by examining historical data to determine which previous reroute options were used in similar weather and traffic conditions. Essentially, using previous information to inform future decisions. This paper describes the initial steps and methodology used towards this goal. A method to extract relevant features from the large volume of weather data to quantify the convective weather scenario during a particular time range is presented. Similar routes are clustered. A description of the algorithm to identify which cluster of reroute advisories were actually followed by pilots is described. Models built for fifteen of the top twenty most frequently used reroute clusters correctly predict the use of the cluster for over 60 of the test examples. Results are preliminary but indicate that the methodology is worth pursuing with modifications based on insight gained from this analysis.

Application of hazard analysis and critical control point methodology and risk-based grading to consumer food safety surveys.

PubMed

Røssvoll, Elin Halbach; Ueland, Øydis; Hagtvedt, Therese; Jacobsen, Eivind; Lavik, Randi; Langsrud, Solveig

2012-09-01

Traditionally, consumer food safety survey responses have been classified as either "right" or "wrong" and food handling practices that are associated with high risk of infection have been treated in the same way as practices with lower risks. In this study, a risk-based method for consumer food safety surveys has been developed, and HACCP (hazard analysis and critical control point) methodology was used for selecting relevant questions. We conducted a nationally representative Web-based survey (n = 2,008), and to fit the self-reported answers we adjusted a risk-based grading system originally developed for observational studies. The results of the survey were analyzed both with the traditional "right" and "wrong" classification and with the risk-based grading system. The results using the two methods were very different. Only 5 of the 10 most frequent food handling violations were among the 10 practices associated with the highest risk. These 10 practices dealt with different aspects of heat treatment (lacking or insufficient), whereas the majority of the most frequent violations involved storing food at room temperature for too long. Use of the risk-based grading system for survey responses gave a more realistic picture of risks associated with domestic food handling practices. The method highlighted important violations and minor errors, which are performed by most people and are not associated with significant risk. Surveys built on a HACCP-based approach with risk-based grading will contribute to a better understanding of domestic food handling practices and will be of great value for targeted information and educational activities.

Lunar Exploration Architecture Level Key Drivers and Sensitivities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodliff, Kandyce; Cirillo, William; Earle, Kevin; Reeves, J. D.; Shyface, Hilary; Andraschko, Mark; Merrill, R. Gabe; Stromgren, Chel; Cirillo, Christopher

2009-01-01

Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation and lunar surface systems architecture options is performed to assess the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This analysis employs both deterministic and probabilistic modeling techniques so that the extent of potential future uncertainties associated with each option are properly characterized. The results of these analyses are summarized in a predefined set of high-level Figures of Merit (FOMs) so as to provide senior NASA Constellation Program (CxP) and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management with pertinent information to better inform strategic level decision making. The strategic level exploration architecture model is designed to perform analysis at as high a level as possible but still capture those details that have major impacts on system performance. The strategic analysis methodology focuses on integrated performance, affordability, and risk analysis, and captures the linkages and feedbacks between these three areas. Each of these results leads into the determination of the high-level FOMs. This strategic level analysis methodology has been previously applied to Space Shuttle and International Space Station assessments and is now being applied to the development of the Constellation Program point-of-departure lunar architecture. This paper provides an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and the lunar exploration architecture analyses to date. In studying these analysis results, the strategic analysis team has identified and characterized key drivers affecting the integrated architecture behavior. These key drivers include inclusion of a cargo lander, mission rate, mission location, fixed-versus- variable costs/return on investment, and the requirement for probabilistic analysis. Results of sensitivity analysis performed on lunar exploration architecture scenarios are also presented.

Integrating Susceptibility into Environmental Policy: An Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for Lead

PubMed Central

Chari, Ramya; Burke, Thomas A.; White, Ronald H.; Fox, Mary A.

2012-01-01

Susceptibility to chemical toxins has not been adequately addressed in risk assessment methodologies. As a result, environmental policies may fail to meet their fundamental goal of protecting the public from harm. This study examines how characterization of risk may change when susceptibility is explicitly considered in policy development; in particular we examine the process used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to set a National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for lead. To determine a NAAQS, EPA estimated air lead-related decreases in child neurocognitive function through a combination of multiple data elements including concentration-response (CR) functions. In this article, we present alternative scenarios for determining a lead NAAQS using CR functions developed in populations more susceptible to lead toxicity due to socioeconomic disadvantage. The use of CR functions developed in susceptible groups resulted in cognitive decrements greater than original EPA estimates. EPA’s analysis suggested that a standard level of 0.15 µg/m3 would fulfill decision criteria, but by incorporating susceptibility we found that options for the standard could reasonably be extended to lower levels. The use of data developed in susceptible populations would result in the selection of a more protective NAAQS under the same decision framework applied by EPA. Results are used to frame discussion regarding why cumulative risk assessment methodologies are needed to help inform policy development. PMID:22690184

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

2016-12-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

Method and system for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dugan, Joanne Bechta (Inventor); Xu, Hong (Inventor)

2013-01-01

The DEFT methodology, system and computer readable medium extends the applicability of the PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) methodology to computer-based systems, by allowing DFT (Dynamic Fault Tree) nodes as pivot nodes in the Event Tree (ET) model. DEFT includes a mathematical model and solution algorithm, supports all common PRA analysis functions and cutsets. Additional capabilities enabled by the DFT include modularization, phased mission analysis, sequence dependencies, and imperfect coverage.

Priming memories of past wins induces risk seeking.

PubMed

Ludvig, Elliot A; Madan, Christopher R; Spetch, Marcia L

2015-02-01

People are often risk averse when making decisions under uncertainty. When those decisions are based on past experience, people necessarily rely on their memories. Thus, what is remembered at the time of the choice should influence risky choice. We tested this hypothesis by priming memory for past outcomes in a simple risky-choice task. In the task, people repeatedly chose between a safe option and a risky option that paid off with a larger or smaller reward with a 50/50 chance. Some trials were preceded by a priming cue that was previously paired with one of the outcomes. We found that priming cues associated with wins caused people to become risk seeking, whereas priming cues associated with relative losses had little effect. These results suggest that people can be induced to be more risk seeking through subtle reminders of previous winning experiences.

ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

Build Resilience at Your Utility

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CREAT allows users to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on their utility and to evaluate adaptation options to address them using both traditional risk assessment and scenario-based decision making.

Age, Loss Minimization, and the Role of Probability for Decision-Making.

PubMed

Best, Ryan; Freund, Alexandra M

2018-04-05

Older adults are stereotypically considered to be risk averse compared to younger age groups, although meta-analyses on age and the influence of gain/loss framing on risky choices have not found empirical evidence for age differences in risk-taking. The current study extends the investigation of age differences in risk preference by including analyses on the effect of the probability of a risky option on choices in gain versus loss situations. Participants (n = 130 adults aged 19-80 years) chose between a certain option and a risky option of varying probability in gain- and loss-framed gambles with actual monetary outcomes. Only younger adults displayed an overall framing effect. Younger and older adults responded differently to probability fluctuations depending on the framing condition. Older adults were more likely to choose the risky option as the likelihood of avoiding a larger loss increased and as the likelihood of a larger gain decreased. Younger adults responded with the opposite pattern: they were more likely to choose the risky option as the likelihood of a larger gain increased and as the likelihood of avoiding a (slightly) larger loss decreased. Results suggest that older adults are more willing to select a risky option when it increases the likelihood that larger losses be avoided, whereas younger adults are more willing to select a risky option when it allows for slightly larger gains. This finding supports expectations based on theoretical accounts of goal orientation shifting away from securing gains in younger adulthood towards maintenance and avoiding losses in older adulthood. Findings are also discussed in respect to the affective enhancement perspective and socioemotional selectivity theory. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Semi-nonparametric VaR forecasts for hedge funds during the recent crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Brio, Esther B.; Mora-Valencia, Andrés; Perote, Javier

2014-05-01

The need to provide accurate value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting measures has triggered an important literature in econophysics. Although these accurate VaR models and methodologies are particularly demanded for hedge fund managers, there exist few articles specifically devoted to implement new techniques in hedge fund returns VaR forecasting. This article advances in these issues by comparing the performance of risk measures based on parametric distributions (the normal, Student’s t and skewed-t), semi-nonparametric (SNP) methodologies based on Gram-Charlier (GC) series and the extreme value theory (EVT) approach. Our results show that normal-, Student’s t- and Skewed t- based methodologies fail to forecast hedge fund VaR, whilst SNP and EVT approaches accurately success on it. We extend these results to the multivariate framework by providing an explicit formula for the GC copula and its density that encompasses the Gaussian copula and accounts for non-linear dependences. We show that the VaR obtained by the meta GC accurately captures portfolio risk and outperforms regulatory VaR estimates obtained through the meta Gaussian and Student’s t distributions.

Analytical pricing of geometric Asian power options on an underlying driven by a mixed fractional Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei-Guo; Li, Zhe; Liu, Yong-Jun

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study the pricing problem of the continuously monitored fixed and floating strike geometric Asian power options in a mixed fractional Brownian motion environment. First, we derive both closed-form solutions and mixed fractional partial differential equations for fixed and floating strike geometric Asian power options based on delta-hedging strategy and partial differential equation method. Second, we present the lower and upper bounds of the prices of fixed and floating strike geometric Asian power options under the assumption that both risk-free interest rate and volatility are interval numbers. Finally, numerical studies are performed to illustrate the performance of our proposed pricing model.

A comprehensive risk assessment framework for offsite transportation of inflammable hazardous waste.

PubMed

Das, Arup; Gupta, A K; Mazumder, T N

2012-08-15

A framework for risk assessment due to offsite transportation of hazardous wastes is designed based on the type of event that can be triggered from an accident of a hazardous waste carrier. The objective of this study is to design a framework for computing the risk to population associated with offsite transportation of inflammable and volatile wastes. The framework is based on traditional definition of risk and is designed for conditions where accident databases are not available. The probability based variable in risk assessment framework is substituted by a composite accident index proposed in this study. The framework computes the impacts due to a volatile cloud explosion based on TNO Multi-energy model. The methodology also estimates the vulnerable population in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALY) which takes into consideration the demographic profile of the population and the degree of injury on mortality and morbidity sustained. The methodology is illustrated using a case study of a pharmaceutical industry in the Kolkata metropolitan area. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of Bayesian and cost benefit risk analysis in water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varouchakis, E. A.; Palogos, I.; Karatzas, G. P.

2016-03-01

Decision making is a significant tool in water resources management applications. This technical note approaches a decision dilemma that has not yet been considered for the water resources management of a watershed. A common cost-benefit analysis approach, which is novel in the risk analysis of hydrologic/hydraulic applications, and a Bayesian decision analysis are applied to aid the decision making on whether or not to construct a water reservoir for irrigation purposes. The alternative option examined is a scaled parabolic fine variation in terms of over-pumping violations in contrast to common practices that usually consider short-term fines. The methodological steps are analytically presented associated with originally developed code. Such an application, and in such detail, represents new feedback. The results indicate that the probability uncertainty is the driving issue that determines the optimal decision with each methodology, and depending on the unknown probability handling, each methodology may lead to a different optimal decision. Thus, the proposed tool can help decision makers to examine and compare different scenarios using two different approaches before making a decision considering the cost of a hydrologic/hydraulic project and the varied economic charges that water table limit violations can cause inside an audit interval. In contrast to practices that assess the effect of each proposed action separately considering only current knowledge of the examined issue, this tool aids decision making by considering prior information and the sampling distribution of future successful audits.

TRI Relative Risk-Based Environmental Indicators: Summary of Comments Received on the Draft 1992 Methodology and Responses to Comment, May 1997

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains general comments on the original Indicators methodology, the toxicity weighting, the chronic ecological indicator and other issues. OPPT's responses and proposed changes are also discussed.

Harmonised pesticide risk trend indicator for food (HAPERITIF): The methodological approach.

PubMed

Calliera, Maura; Finizio, Antonio; Azimonti, Giovanna; Benfenati, Emilio; Trevisan, Marco

2006-12-01

To provide a harmonised European approach for pesticide risk indicators, the Sixth EU Framework Programme recently financed the HAIR (HArmonised environmental Indicators for pesticide Risk) project. This paper illustrates the methodology underlying a new indicator-HAPERITIF (HArmonised PEsticide RIsk Trend Indicator for Food), developed in HAIR, for tracking acute and chronic pesticide risk trends for consumers. The acute indicator, HAPERITIF(ac), is based on the ratio between an estimated short-term intake (ESTI), calculated as recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO), and the acute reference dose (ARfD); the chronic indicator HAPERITIF(chr) is based on the ratio between an estimated daily intake (EDI) and the admissible daily intake (ADI). HAPERITIF can be applied at different levels of aggregation. Each level gives information for proper risk management of pesticides to reduce the risk associated with food consumption. An example of application using realistic scenarios of pesticide treatments on a potato crop in central-northern Italy is reported to illustrate the different steps of HAPERITIF. Copyright 2006 Society of Chemical Industry.

Tailoring a Human Reliability Analysis to Your Industry Needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2016-01-01

Companies at risk of accidents caused by human error that result in catastrophic consequences include: airline industry mishaps, medical malpractice, medication mistakes, aerospace failures, major oil spills, transportation mishaps, power production failures and manufacturing facility incidents. Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) is used to analyze the inherent risk of human behavior or actions introducing errors into the operation of a system or process. These assessments can be used to identify where errors are most likely to arise and the potential risks involved if they do occur. Using the basic concepts of HRA, an evolving group of methodologies are used to meet various industry needs. Determining which methodology or combination of techniques will provide a quality human reliability assessment is a key element to developing effective strategies for understanding and dealing with risks caused by human errors. There are a number of concerns and difficulties in "tailoring" a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) for different industries. Although a variety of HRA methodologies are available to analyze human error events, determining the most appropriate tools to provide the most useful results can depend on industry specific cultures and requirements. Methodology selection may be based on a variety of factors that include: 1) how people act and react in different industries, 2) expectations based on industry standards, 3) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 4) type and availability of data, 5) how the industry views risk & reliability, and 6) types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks. Other considerations for methodology selection should be based on what information is needed from the assessment. If the principal concern is determination of the primary risk factors contributing to the potential human error, a more detailed analysis method may be employed versus a requirement to provide a numerical value as part of a probabilistic risk assessment. Industries involved with humans operating large equipment or transport systems (ex. railroads or airlines) would have more need to address the man machine interface than medical workers administering medications. Human error occurs in every industry; in most cases the consequences are relatively benign and occasionally beneficial. In cases where the results can have disastrous consequences, the use of Human Reliability techniques to identify and classify the risk of human errors allows a company more opportunities to mitigate or eliminate these types of risks and prevent costly tragedies.

Underreporting of high-risk water and sanitation practices undermines progress on global targets.

PubMed

Vedachalam, Sridhar; MacDonald, Luke H; Shiferaw, Solomon; Seme, Assefa; Schwab, Kellogg J

2017-01-01

Water and sanitation indicators under the Millennium Development Goals failed to capture high-risk practices undertaken on a regular basis. In conjunction with local partners, fourteen rounds of household surveys using mobile phones with a customized open-source application were conducted across nine study geographies in Asia and Africa. In addition to the main water and sanitation facilities, interviewees (n = 245,054) identified all water and sanitation options regularly used for at least one season of the year. Unimproved water consumption and open defecation were targeted as high-risk practices. We defined underreporting as the difference between the regular and main use of high-risk practices. Our estimates of high-risk practices as the main option matched the widely accepted Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) estimates within the 95% confidence interval. However, estimates of these practices as a regular option was far higher than the DHS estimates. Across the nine geographies, median underreporting of unimproved water use was 5.5%, with a range of 0.5% to 13.9%. Median underreporting of open defecation was much higher at 9.9%, with a range of 2.7% to 11.5%. This resulted in an underreported population of 25 million regularly consuming unimproved water and 50 million regularly practicing open defecation. Further examination of data from Ethiopia suggested that location and socio-economic factors were significant drivers of underreporting. Current global monitoring relies on a framework that considers the availability and use of a single option to meet drinking water and sanitation needs. Our analysis demonstrates the use of multiple options and widespread underreporting of high-risk practices. Policies based on current monitoring data, therefore, fail to consider the range of challenges and solutions to meeting water and sanitation needs, and result in an inflated sense of progress. Mobile surveys offer a cost-effective and innovative platform to rapidly and repeatedly monitor critical development metrics.

Underreporting of high-risk water and sanitation practices undermines progress on global targets

PubMed Central

Vedachalam, Sridhar; MacDonald, Luke H.; Shiferaw, Solomon; Seme, Assefa; Schwab, Kellogg J.

2017-01-01

Water and sanitation indicators under the Millennium Development Goals failed to capture high-risk practices undertaken on a regular basis. In conjunction with local partners, fourteen rounds of household surveys using mobile phones with a customized open-source application were conducted across nine study geographies in Asia and Africa. In addition to the main water and sanitation facilities, interviewees (n = 245,054) identified all water and sanitation options regularly used for at least one season of the year. Unimproved water consumption and open defecation were targeted as high-risk practices. We defined underreporting as the difference between the regular and main use of high-risk practices. Our estimates of high-risk practices as the main option matched the widely accepted Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) estimates within the 95% confidence interval. However, estimates of these practices as a regular option was far higher than the DHS estimates. Across the nine geographies, median underreporting of unimproved water use was 5.5%, with a range of 0.5% to 13.9%. Median underreporting of open defecation was much higher at 9.9%, with a range of 2.7% to 11.5%. This resulted in an underreported population of 25 million regularly consuming unimproved water and 50 million regularly practicing open defecation. Further examination of data from Ethiopia suggested that location and socio-economic factors were significant drivers of underreporting. Current global monitoring relies on a framework that considers the availability and use of a single option to meet drinking water and sanitation needs. Our analysis demonstrates the use of multiple options and widespread underreporting of high-risk practices. Policies based on current monitoring data, therefore, fail to consider the range of challenges and solutions to meeting water and sanitation needs, and result in an inflated sense of progress. Mobile surveys offer a cost-effective and innovative platform to rapidly and repeatedly monitor critical development metrics. PMID:28489904

Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

2018-02-01

Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Assessment of methodologies for analysis of the dungeness B accidental aircraft crash risk.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Hansen, Clifford W.

2010-09-01

The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) has requested Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to review the aircraft crash methodology for nuclear facilities that are being used in the United Kingdom (UK). The scope of the work included a review of one method utilized in the UK for assessing the potential for accidental airplane crashes into nuclear facilities (Task 1) and a comparison of the UK methodology against similar International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), United States (US) Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) methods (Task 2). Based on the conclusions from Tasks 1 and 2, an additionalmore » Task 3 would provide an assessment of a site-specific crash frequency for the Dungeness B facility using one of the other methodologies. This report documents the results of Task 2. The comparison of the different methods was performed for the three primary contributors to aircraft crash risk at the Dungeness B site: airfield related crashes, crashes below airways, and background crashes. The methods and data specified in each methodology were compared for each of these risk contributors, differences in the methodologies were identified, and the importance of these differences was qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. The bases for each of the methods and the data used were considered in this assessment process. A comparison of the treatment of the consequences of the aircraft crashes was not included in this assessment because the frequency of crashes into critical structures is currently low based on the existing Dungeness B assessment. Although the comparison found substantial differences between the UK and the three alternative methodologies (IAEA, NRC, and DOE) this assessment concludes that use of any of these alternative methodologies would not change the conclusions reached for the Dungeness B site. Performance of Task 3 is thus not recommended.« less

The role of physical exercise in cognitive recovery after traumatic brain injury: A systematic review.

PubMed

Morris, Timothy; Gomes Osman, Joyce; Tormos Muñoz, Jose Maria; Costa Miserachs, David; Pascual Leone, Alvaro

2016-11-22

There is a growing body of evidence revealing exercise-induced effects on brain structure and cognitive function across the lifespan. Animal models of traumatic brain injury also suggest exercise is capable of modulating not only the pathophysiological changes following trauma but also the associated cognitive deficits. To evaluate the effect of physical exercise on cognitive impairment following traumatic brain injury in humans. A systematic search of the PubMed database was performed using the search terms "cognition" and "executive function, memory or attention", "traumatic brain injury" and "physical exercise". Adult human traumatic brain injury studies that assessed cognitive function as an outcome measure (primary or secondary) and used physical exercise as a treatment (single or combined) were assessed by two independent reviewers. Data was extracted under the guidance of the population intervention comparison outcome framework wherein, characteristics of included studies (exercise duration, intensity, combined or single intervention, control groups and cognitive measures) were collected, after which, methodological quality (Cochrane criteria) was assessed. A total of 240 citations were identified, but only 6 met our inclusion criteria (3 from search records, 3 from reference lists. Only a small number of studies have evaluated the effect of exercise on cognition following traumatic brain injury in humans, and of those, assessment of efficacy is difficult due to low methodological strength and a high risk of different types of bias. Evidence of an effect of physical exercise on cognitive recovery suggests further studies should explore this treatment option with greater methodological approaches. Recommendations to reduce risk of bias and methodological shortfalls are discussed and include stricter inclusion criteria to create homogenous groups and larger patient pools, more rigorous cognitive assessments and the study and reporting of additional and combined rehabilitation techniques.

Methodology for setting risk-based concentrations of contaminants in soil and groundwater and application to a model contaminated site.

PubMed

Fujinaga, Aiichiro; Uchiyama, Iwao; Morisawa, Shinsuke; Yoneda, Minoru; Sasamoto, Yuzuru

2012-01-01

In Japan, environmental standards for contaminants in groundwater and in leachate from soil are set with the assumption that they are used for drinking water over a human lifetime. Where there is neither a well nor groundwater used for drinking, the standard is thus too severe. Therefore, remediation based on these standards incurs excessive effort and cost. In contrast, the environmental-assessment procedure used in the United States and the Netherlands considers the site conditions (land use, existing wells, etc.); however, a risk assessment is required for each site. Therefore, this study proposes a new framework for judging contamination in Japan by considering the merits of the environmental standards used and a method for risk assessment. The framework involves setting risk-based concentrations that are attainable remediation goals for contaminants in soil and groundwater. The framework was then applied to a model contaminated site for risk management, and the results are discussed regarding the effectiveness and applicability of the new methodology. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Design of a trial-based economic evaluation on the cost-effectiveness of employability interventions among work disabled employees or employees at risk of work disability: The CASE-study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In the Netherlands, absenteeism and reduced productivity due to work disability lead to high yearly costs reaching almost 5% of the gross national product. To reduce the economic burden of sick leave and reduced productivity, different employability interventions for work-disabled employees or employees at risk of work disability have been developed. Within this study, called 'CASE-study' (Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Sustainable Employability), five different employability interventions directed at work disabled employees with divergent health complaints will be analysed on their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. This paper describes a consistent and transparent methodological design to do so. Methods/design Per employability intervention 142 participants are needed whereof approximately 66 participants receiving the intervention will be compared with 66 participants receiving usual care. Based on the intervention-specific characteristics, a randomized control trial or a quasi-experiment with match-criteria will be conducted. Notwithstanding the study design, eligible participants will be employees aged 18 to 63, working at least 12 h per week, and at risk of work disability, or already work-disabled due to medical restrictions. The primary outcome will be the duration of sick leave. Secondary outcomes are health status and quality of life. Outcomes will be assessed at baseline and then 6, 12 and 18 months later. Economic costs will consist of healthcare costs and cost of lost production due to work disability, and will be evaluated from a societal perspective. Discussion The CASE-study is the first to conduct economic evaluations of multiple different employability interventions based on a similar methodological framework. The cost-effectiveness results for every employability intervention will be published in 2014, but the methods, strengths and weaknesses of the study protocol are discussed in this paper. To contribute to treatment options in occupational health practice and enable the development of guidelines on how to conduct economic evaluation better suited to this field; this paper provides an important first step. Trial registration Four trials involved in the CASE-study are registered with the Netherlands Trial Registry: Care for Work (NTR2886), Health and Motion (NTR3111), Guidance to Excel in Return to Work (NTR3151), Care for Companies/Second Care (NTR3136). PMID:22257557

Youth Risk Assessment in Complex Agency Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Groner, Mark R.; Solomon, Jean

2007-01-01

Advancements in the delivery of community-based services and tight utilization management of high-cost treatment options result in youths with serious behavior problems receiving intervention in lower levels of care than was true ten or fifteen years ago. This shift in where services tend to be delivered necessitates enhancement of risk assessment…

Heliostat cost optimization study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Reeken, Finn; Weinrebe, Gerhard; Keck, Thomas; Balz, Markus

2016-05-01

This paper presents a methodology for a heliostat cost optimization study. First different variants of small, medium sized and large heliostats are designed. Then the respective costs, tracking and optical quality are determined. For the calculation of optical quality a structural model of the heliostat is programmed and analyzed using finite element software. The costs are determined based on inquiries and from experience with similar structures. Eventually the levelised electricity costs for a reference power tower plant are calculated. Before each annual simulation run the heliostat field is optimized. Calculated LCOEs are then used to identify the most suitable option(s). Finally, the conclusions and findings of this extensive cost study are used to define the concept of a new cost-efficient heliostat called `Stellio'.

Nigerian Library Staff and Their Perceptions of Health Risks Posed by Using Computer-Based Systems in University Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Uwaifo, Stephen Osahon

2008-01-01

Purpose: The paper seeks to examine the health risks faced when using computer-based systems by library staff in Nigerian libraries. Design/methodology/approach: The paper uses a survey research approach to carry out this investigation. Findings: The investigation reveals that the perceived health risk does not predict perceived ease of use of…

Integrated Research on the Development of Global Climate Risk Management Strategies - Framework and Initial Results of the Research Project ICA-RUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emori, Seita; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Yamagata, Yoshiki; Oki, Taikan; Mori, Shunsuke; Fujigaki, Yuko

2013-04-01

With the aim of proposing strategies of global climate risk management, we have launched a five-year research project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). In this project with the phrase "risk management" in its title, we aspire for a comprehensive assessment of climate change risks, explicit consideration of uncertainties, utilization of best available information, and consideration of every possible conditions and options. We also regard the problem as one of decision-making at the human level, which involves social value judgments and adapts to future changes in circumstances. The ICA-RUS project consists of the following five themes: 1) Synthesis of global climate risk management strategies, 2) Optimization of land, water and ecosystem uses for climate risk management, 3) Identification and analysis of critical climate risks, 4) Evaluation of climate risk management options under technological, social and economic uncertainties and 5) Interactions between scientific and social rationalities in climate risk management (see also: http://www.nies.go.jp/ica-rus/en/). For the integration of quantitative knowledge of climate change risks and responses, we apply a tool named AIM/Impact [Policy], which consists of an energy-economic model, a simplified climate model and impact projection modules. At the same time, in order to make use of qualitative knowledge as well, we hold monthly project meetings for the discussion of risk management strategies and publish annual reports based on the quantitative and qualitative information. To enhance the comprehensiveness of the analyses, we maintain an inventory of risks and risk management options. The inventory is revised iteratively through interactive meetings with stakeholders such as policymakers, government officials and industrial representatives.

The precautionary principle and emerging biological risks: lessons from swine flu and HIV in blood products.

PubMed Central

Stoto, Michael A.

2002-01-01

Two examples-the "swine flu affair" in 1976 and the emergence of HIV in the blood supply in the early 1980s-illustrate the difficulties of decision-making in public health. Both cases illustrate trade-offs between product risks and public health benefits, especially with regard to uncertainty in estimates of product risks, public health risks, and the benefits of prevention. The cases also illustrate the tendency of public health policy makers to go all the way or do nothing at all, rather than consider intermediate options that can be adapted as new information emerges. This review suggests three lessons for public health policy makers: (1) be open and honest about scientific uncertainty; (2) communicate with the public, even when the facts are not clear; and (3) consider intermediate, adaptable policy options, such as obtaining more information, thus reducing uncertainty, and building in decision points to reconsider initial policies. Underlying all of these lessons is the need to commission studies to resolve important uncertainties and increase the information base for public communication, and to review regulations and other policy options in the light of the new data that emerge. PMID:12576534

The precautionary principle and emerging biological risks: lessons from swine flu and HIV in blood products.

PubMed

Stoto, Michael A

2002-01-01

Two examples-the "swine flu affair" in 1976 and the emergence of HIV in the blood supply in the early 1980s-illustrate the difficulties of decision-making in public health. Both cases illustrate trade-offs between product risks and public health benefits, especially with regard to uncertainty in estimates of product risks, public health risks, and the benefits of prevention. The cases also illustrate the tendency of public health policy makers to go all the way or do nothing at all, rather than consider intermediate options that can be adapted as new information emerges. This review suggests three lessons for public health policy makers: (1) be open and honest about scientific uncertainty; (2) communicate with the public, even when the facts are not clear; and (3) consider intermediate, adaptable policy options, such as obtaining more information, thus reducing uncertainty, and building in decision points to reconsider initial policies. Underlying all of these lessons is the need to commission studies to resolve important uncertainties and increase the information base for public communication, and to review regulations and other policy options in the light of the new data that emerge.

[Archaeology and genealogy as methodological options of nursing research].

PubMed

Azevedo, Rosemeiry Capriata de Souza; Ramos, Flavia Regina Souza

2003-01-01

This article is based on the historical contextualization about the development of research in nursing, presents the categories/lines of interest that support the human knowledge applied in the Doctorate Thesis in Nursing in Brazil, points out the archeological and genealogical methods proposed by Michel Foucault, and their possibility to make more difficult the day-to-day tasks of the nursing profession Whether in Institutions, Public Policies, Health Reform, and Vocational Training, in the attempt to understand which strategies, challenges, knowledge base, and practices have influenced the building of the subjects.

Applications of δ-function perturbation to the pricing of derivative securities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decamps, Marc; De Schepper, Ann; Goovaerts, Marc

2004-11-01

In the recent econophysics literature, the use of functional integrals is widespread for the calculation of option prices. In this paper, we extend this approach in several directions by means of δ-function perturbations. First, we show that results about infinitely repulsive δ-function are applicable to the pricing of barrier options. We also introduce functional integrals over skew paths that give rise to a new European option formula when combined with δ-function potential. We propose accurate closed-form approximations based on the theory of comonotonic risks in case the functional integrals are not analytically computable.

Assessing secondary soil salinization risk based on the PSR sustainability framework.

PubMed

Zhou, De; Lin, Zhulu; Liu, Liming; Zimmermann, David

2013-10-15

Risk assessment of secondary soil salinization, which is caused in part by the way people manage the land, is an essential challenge to agricultural sustainability. The objective of our study was to develop a soil salinity risk assessment methodology by selecting a consistent set of risk factors based on the conceptual Pressure-State-Response (PSR) sustainability framework and incorporating the grey relational analysis and the Analytic Hierarchy Process methods. The proposed salinity risk assessment methodology was demonstrated through a case study of developing composite risk index maps for the Yinchuan Plain, a major irrigation agriculture district in northwest China. Fourteen risk factors were selected in terms of the three PSR criteria: pressure, state, and response. The results showed that the salinity risk in the Yinchuan Plain was strongly influenced by the subsoil and groundwater salinity, land use, distance to irrigation canals, and depth to groundwater. To maintain agricultural sustainability in the Yinchuan Plain, a suite of remedial and preventative actions were proposed to manage soil salinity risk in the regions that are affected by salinity at different levels and by different salinization processes. The weight sensitivity analysis results also showed that the overall salinity risk of the Yinchuan Plain would increase or decrease as the weights for pressure or response risk factors increased, signifying the importance of human activities on secondary soil salinization. Ideally, the proposed methodology will help us develop more consistent management tools for risk assessment and management and for control of secondary soil salinization. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of Risk-Based Inspection method for gas compressor station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Meng; Liang, Wei; Qiu, Zeyang; Lin, Yang

2017-05-01

According to the complex process and lots of equipment, there are risks in gas compressor station. At present, research on integrity management of gas compressor station is insufficient. In this paper, the basic principle of Risk Based Inspection (RBI) and the RBI methodology are studied; the process of RBI in the gas compressor station is developed. The corrosion loop and logistics loop of the gas compressor station are determined through the study of corrosion mechanism and process of the gas compressor station. The probability of failure is calculated by using the modified coefficient, and the consequence of failure is calculated by the quantitative method. In particular, we addressed the application of a RBI methodology in a gas compressor station. The risk ranking is helpful to find the best preventive plan for inspection in the case study.

The predictive performance of a path-dependent exotic-option credit risk model in the emerging market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dar-Hsin; Chou, Heng-Chih; Wang, David; Zaabar, Rim

2011-06-01

Most empirical research of the path-dependent, exotic-option credit risk model focuses on developed markets. Taking Taiwan as an example, this study investigates the bankruptcy prediction performance of the path-dependent, barrier option model in the emerging market. We adopt Duan's (1994) [11], (2000) [12] transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to directly estimate the unobserved model parameters, and compare the predictive ability of the barrier option model to the commonly adopted credit risk model, Merton's model. Our empirical findings show that the barrier option model is more powerful than Merton's model in predicting bankruptcy in the emerging market. Moreover, we find that the barrier option model predicts bankruptcy much better for highly-leveraged firms. Finally, our findings indicate that the prediction accuracy of the credit risk model can be improved by higher asset liquidity and greater financial transparency.

REVIEW OF DRAFT REVISED BLUE BOOK ON ESTIMATING ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In 1994, EPA published a report, referred to as the “Blue Book,” which lays out EPA’s current methodology for quantitatively estimating radiogenic cancer risks. A follow-on report made minor adjustments to the previous estimates and presented a partial analysis of the uncertainties in the numerical estimates. In 2006, the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences released a report on the health risks from exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation. Cosponsored by the EPA and several other Federal agencies, Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation BEIR VII Phase 2 (BEIR VII) primarily addresses cancer and genetic risks from low doses of low-LET radiation. In the draft White Paper: Modifying EPA Radiation Risk Models Based on BEIR VII (White Paper), ORIA proposed changes in EPA’s methodology for estimating radiogenic cancers, based on the contents of BEIR VII and some ancillary information. For the most part, it proposed to adopt the models and methodology recommended in BEIR VII; however, certain modifications and expansions are considered to be desirable or necessary for EPA’s purposes. EPA sought advice from the Agency’s Science Advisory Board on the application of BEIR VII and on issues relating to these modifications and expansions in the Advisory on EPA’s Draft White Paper: Modifying EPA Radiation Risk Models Based on BEIR VII (record # 83044). The SAB issued its Advisory on Jan. 31, 2008 (EPA-SAB-08-

Automatic, Multiple Assessment Options in Undergraduate Meteorology Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kahl, Jonathan D. W.

2017-01-01

Since 2008, automatic, multiple assessment options have been utilised in selected undergraduate meteorology courses at the University of Wisconsin--Milwaukee. Motivated by a desire to reduce stress among students, the assessment methodology includes examination-heavy and homework-heavy alternatives, differing by an adjustable 15% of the overall…

Design and Implementation of Embedded Computer Vision Systems Based on Particle Filters

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

for hardware/software implementa- tion of multi-dimensional particle filter application and we explore this in the third application which is a 3D...methodology for hardware/software implementation of multi-dimensional particle filter application and we explore this in the third application which is a...and hence multiprocessor implementation of parti- cle filters is an important option to examine. A significant body of work exists on optimizing generic

Modulating activity in the prefrontal cortex changes decision-making for risky gains and losses: a transcranial direct current stimulation study.

PubMed

Ye, Hang; Chen, Shu; Huang, Daqiang; Wang, Siqi; Luo, Jun

2015-06-01

When making choices under uncertainty, people usually consider both the risks and benefits of each option. Previous studies have found that weighing of risks and benefits during decision-making involves a complex neural network that includes the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), but the causal effect of this network on risk decision-making has remained unclear. This experiment was based on a risk-measurement table designed to provide a direct measure of risk preference, with a weighted value of the choices (denoted as weighted risk aversion, WRA) as an index of the participant's degree of risk aversion. We studied whether bifrontal transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) applied over the right and left prefrontal cortex can change the balance of risky vs. safe responses under both gain frame and loss frame. A total of 60 volunteers performed risk tasks while receiving either anodal over the right with cathodal over the left DLPFC, anodal over the left with cathodal over the right DLPFC, or sham stimulation. The participants tended to choose more risky options in the gain frame and more safe options in the loss frame after the right anodal/left cathodal tDCS. We also found that right anodal/left cathodal tDCS significantly decreased the WRA values compared with those associated with sham stimulation. These findings extend the notion that DLPFC activity is critical for risk decision-making, indicating an asymmetric role of the right DLPFC in the gain frame vs. the loss frame of risk decision-making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Health care professionals' attitudes towards population-based genetic testing and risk-stratification for ovarian cancer: a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Hann, Katie E J; Fraser, Lindsay; Side, Lucy; Gessler, Sue; Waller, Jo; Sanderson, Saskia C; Freeman, Madeleine; Jacobs, Ian; Lanceley, Anne

2017-12-16

Ovarian cancer is usually diagnosed at a late stage when outcomes are poor. Personalised ovarian cancer risk prediction, based on genetic and epidemiological information and risk stratified management in adult women could improve outcomes. Examining health care professionals' (HCP) attitudes to ovarian cancer risk stratified management, willingness to support women, self-efficacy (belief in one's own ability to successfully complete a task), and knowledge about ovarian cancer will help identify training needs in anticipation of personalised ovarian cancer risk prediction being introduced. An anonymous survey was distributed online to HCPs via relevant professional organisations in the UK. Kruskal-Wallis tests and pairwise comparisons were used to compare knowledge and self-efficacy scores between different types of HCPs, and attitudes toward population-based genetic testing and risk stratified management were described. Content analysis was undertaken of free text responses concerning HCPs willingness to discuss risk management options with women. One hundred forty-six eligible HCPs completed the survey: oncologists (31%); genetics clinicians (30%); general practitioners (22%); gynaecologists (10%); nurses (4%); and 'others'. Scores for knowledge of ovarian cancer and genetics, and self-efficacy in conducting a cancer risk consultation were generally high but significantly lower for general practitioners compared to genetics clinicians, oncologists, and gynaecologists. Support for population-based genetic testing was not high (<50%). Attitudes towards ovarian cancer risk stratification were mixed, although the majority of participants indicated a willingness to discuss management options with patients. Larger samples are required to investigate attitudes to population-based genetic testing for ovarian cancer risk and to establish why some HCPs are hesitant to offer testing to all adult female patients. If ovarian cancer risk assessment using genetic testing and non-genetic information including epidemiological information is rolled out on a population basis, training will be needed for HCPs in primary care to enable them to provide appropriate support to women at each stage of the process.

Deep Borehole Emplacement Mode Hazard Analysis Revision 0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sevougian, S. David

This letter report outlines a methodology and provides resource information for the Deep Borehole Emplacement Mode Hazard Analysis (DBEMHA). The main purpose is identify the accident hazards and accident event sequences associated with the two emplacement mode options (wireline or drillstring), to outline a methodology for computing accident probabilities and frequencies, and to point to available databases on the nature and frequency of accidents typically associated with standard borehole drilling and nuclear handling operations. Risk mitigation and prevention measures, which have been incorporated into the two emplacement designs (see Cochran and Hardin 2015), are also discussed. A key intent ofmore » this report is to provide background information to brief subject matter experts involved in the Emplacement Mode Design Study. [Note: Revision 0 of this report is concentrated more on the wireline emplacement mode. It is expected that Revision 1 will contain further development of the preliminary fault and event trees for the drill string emplacement mode.]« less

Decision-theoretic methodology for reliability and risk allocation in nuclear power plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cho, N.Z.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.

1985-01-01

This paper describes a methodology for allocating reliability and risk to various reactor systems, subsystems, components, operations, and structures in a consistent manner, based on a set of global safety criteria which are not rigid. The problem is formulated as a multiattribute decision analysis paradigm; the multiobjective optimization, which is performed on a PRA model and reliability cost functions, serves as the guiding principle for reliability and risk allocation. The concept of noninferiority is used in the multiobjective optimization problem. Finding the noninferior solution set is the main theme of the current approach. The assessment of the decision maker's preferencesmore » could then be performed more easily on the noninferior solution set. Some results of the methodology applications to a nontrivial risk model are provided and several outstanding issues such as generic allocation and preference assessment are discussed.« less

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2009-01-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing - 2nd Edition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2003-12-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Liquid fuels from coal: analysis of a partial transition from oil to coal; light liquids in Zimbabwe's liquid fuels base

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maya, R.S.

1986-01-01

This study assesses the feasibility of a coal based light liquids program as a way to localize forces that determine the flow of oil into the Zimbabwean economy. Methods in End-use Energy Analysis and Econometrics in which the utilization of petroleum energy is related to economic and industrial activity are used to gain insight into the structure and behavior of petroleum utilization in that country and to forecast future requirements of this resource. The feasibility of coal liquefaction as a substitute for imported oil is assessed by the use of engineering economics in which the technical economics of competing oilmore » supply technologies are analyzed and the best option is selected. Coal conversion technologies are numerous but all except the Fischer-Trosch indirect coal liquefaction technology are deficient in reliability as commercial ventures. The Fischer-Tropsch process by coincidence better matches Zimbabwe's product configuration than the less commercially advanced technologies. Using present value analysis to compare the coal liquefaction and the import option indicates that it is better to continue importing oil than to resort to a coal base for a portion of the oil supplies. An extended analysis taking special consideration of the risk and uncertainty factors characteristic of Zimbabwe's oil supply system indicates that the coal option is better than the import option. The relative infancy of the coal liquefaction industry and the possibility that activities responsible for the risk and uncertainty in the oil supply system will be removed in the future, however, make the adoption of the coal option an unusually risky undertaking.« less

Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

2015-04-01

Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation options was presented to the local community. The options were based on a thorough stakeholder involvement process ending up in three different views on how to deal with the landslide risk situation: i) protect lives and properties (hierarchical) ; ii) careful stewardship of the mountains (egalitarian); and iii) rational individual choice (individualist).

Screening Methodologies to Support Risk and Technology ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Clean Air Act establishes a two-stage regulatory process for addressing emissions of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) from stationary sources. In the first stage, the Act requires the EPA to develop technology-based standards for categories of industrial sources. We have largely completed the required “Maximum Achievable Control Technology” (MACT) standards. In the second stage of the regulatory process, EPA must review each MACT standard at least every eight years and revise them as necessary, “taking into account developments in practices, processes and control technologies.” We call this requirement the “technology review.” EPA is also required to complete a one-time assessment of the health and environmental risks that remain after sources come into compliance with MACT. This residual risk review also must be done within 8 years of setting the initial MACT standard. If additional risk reductions are necessary to protect public health with an ample margin of safety or to prevent adverse environmental effects, EPA must develop standards to address these remaining risks. Because the risk review is an important component of the RTR process, EPA is seeking SAB input on the scientific credibility of specific enhancements made to our risk assessment methodologies, particularly with respect to screening methodologies, since the last SAB review was completed in 2010. These enhancements to our risk methodologies are outlined in the document title

SutraPlot, a graphical post-processor for SUTRA, a model for ground-water flow with solute or energy transport

USGS Publications Warehouse

Souza, W.R.

1999-01-01

This report documents a graphical display post-processor (SutraPlot) for the U.S. Geological Survey Saturated-Unsaturated flow and solute or energy TRAnsport simulation model SUTRA, Version 2D3D.1. This version of SutraPlot is an upgrade to SutraPlot for the 2D-only SUTRA model (Souza, 1987). It has been modified to add 3D functionality, a graphical user interface (GUI), and enhanced graphic output options. Graphical options for 2D SUTRA (2-dimension) simulations include: drawing the 2D finite-element mesh, mesh boundary, and velocity vectors; plots of contours for pressure, saturation, concentration, and temperature within the model region; 2D finite-element based gridding and interpolation; and 2D gridded data export files. Graphical options for 3D SUTRA (3-dimension) simulations include: drawing the 3D finite-element mesh; plots of contours for pressure, saturation, concentration, and temperature in 2D sections of the 3D model region; 3D finite-element based gridding and interpolation; drawing selected regions of velocity vectors (projected on principal coordinate planes); and 3D gridded data export files. Installation instructions and a description of all graphic options are presented. A sample SUTRA problem is described and three step-by-step SutraPlot applications are provided. In addition, the methodology and numerical algorithms for the 2D and 3D finite-element based gridding and interpolation, developed for SutraPlot, are described. 1

12 CFR 324.205 - VaR-based measure.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... risk-based capital requirements. The FDIC-supervised institution must update data sets at least monthly... observation period of at least one year. Data used to determine the VaR-based measure must be relevant to the... portfolio over a full business cycle. An FDIC-supervised institution using this option must update its data...

Study designs for identifying risk compensation behavior among users of biomedical HIV prevention technologies: balancing methodological rigor and research ethics.

PubMed

Underhill, Kristen

2013-10-01

The growing evidence base for biomedical HIV prevention interventions - such as oral pre-exposure prophylaxis, microbicides, male circumcision, treatment as prevention, and eventually prevention vaccines - has given rise to concerns about the ways in which users of these biomedical products may adjust their HIV risk behaviors based on the perception that they are prevented from infection. Known as risk compensation, this behavioral adjustment draws on the theory of "risk homeostasis," which has previously been applied to phenomena as diverse as Lyme disease vaccination, insurance mandates, and automobile safety. Little rigorous evidence exists to answer risk compensation concerns in the biomedical HIV prevention literature, in part because the field has not systematically evaluated the study designs available for testing these behaviors. The goals of this Commentary are to explain the origins of risk compensation behavior in risk homeostasis theory, to reframe risk compensation as a testable response to the perception of reduced risk, and to assess the methodological rigor and ethical justification of study designs aiming to isolate risk compensation responses. Although the most rigorous methodological designs for assessing risk compensation behavior may be unavailable due to ethical flaws, several strategies can help investigators identify potential risk compensation behavior during Phase II, Phase III, and Phase IV testing of new technologies. Where concerns arise regarding risk compensation behavior, empirical evidence about the incidence, types, and extent of these behavioral changes can illuminate opportunities to better support the users of new HIV prevention strategies. This Commentary concludes by suggesting a new way to conceptualize risk compensation behavior in the HIV prevention context. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study designs for identifying risk compensation behavior among users of biomedical HIV prevention technologies: Balancing methodological rigor and research ethics

PubMed Central

Underhill, Kristen

2014-01-01

The growing evidence base for biomedical HIV prevention interventions – such as oral pre-exposure prophylaxis, microbicides, male circumcision, treatment as prevention, and eventually prevention vaccines – has given rise to concerns about the ways in which users of these biomedical products may adjust their HIV risk behaviors based on the perception that they are prevented from infection. Known as risk compensation, this behavioral adjustment draws on the theory of “risk homeostasis,” which has previously been applied to phenomena as diverse as Lyme disease vaccination, insurance mandates, and automobile safety. Little rigorous evidence exists to answer risk compensation concerns in the biomedical HIV prevention literature, in part because the field has not systematically evaluated the study designs available for testing these behaviors. The goals of this Commentary are to explain the origins of risk compensation behavior in risk homeostasis theory, to reframe risk compensation as a testable response to the perception of reduced risk, and to assess the methodological rigor and ethical justification of study designs aiming to isolate risk compensation responses. Although the most rigorous methodological designs for assessing risk compensation behavior may be unavailable due to ethical flaws, several strategies can help investigators identify potential risk compensation behavior during Phase II, Phase III, and Phase IV testing of new technologies. Where concerns arise regarding risk compensation behavior, empirical evidence about the incidence, types, and extent of these behavioral changes can illuminate opportunities to better support the users of new HIV prevention strategies. This Commentary concludes by suggesting a new way to conceptualize risk compensation behavior in the HIV prevention context. PMID:23597916

Valuing public sector risk exposure in transportation public-private partnerships.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-10-01

This report presents a methodological framework to evaluate public sector financial risk exposure when : delivering transportation infrastructure through public-private partnership (PPP) agreements in the United : States (U.S.). The framework is base...

An Integrated Low-Speed Performance and Noise Prediction Methodology for Subsonic Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, E. D.; Mavris, D. N.

2000-01-01

An integrated methodology has been assembled to compute the engine performance, takeoff and landing trajectories, and community noise levels for a subsonic commercial aircraft. Where feasible, physics-based noise analysis methods have been used to make the results more applicable to newer, revolutionary designs and to allow for a more direct evaluation of new technologies. The methodology is intended to be used with approximation methods and risk analysis techniques to allow for the analysis of a greater number of variable combinations while retaining the advantages of physics-based analysis. Details of the methodology are described and limited results are presented for a representative subsonic commercial aircraft.

Simulation-Based Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Empirical and Robust Hazard Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Risi, Raffaele; Goda, Katsuichiro

2017-08-01

Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is the prerequisite for rigorous risk assessment and thus for decision-making regarding risk mitigation strategies. This paper proposes a new simulation-based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment for a specific site of an engineering project along the coast, or, more broadly, for a wider tsunami-prone region. The methodology incorporates numerous uncertain parameters that are related to geophysical processes by adopting new scaling relationships for tsunamigenic seismic regions. Through the proposed methodology it is possible to obtain either a tsunami hazard curve for a single location, that is the representation of a tsunami intensity measure (such as inundation depth) versus its mean annual rate of occurrence, or tsunami hazard maps, representing the expected tsunami intensity measures within a geographical area, for a specific probability of occurrence in a given time window. In addition to the conventional tsunami hazard curve that is based on an empirical statistical representation of the simulation-based PTHA results, this study presents a robust tsunami hazard curve, which is based on a Bayesian fitting methodology. The robust approach allows a significant reduction of the number of simulations and, therefore, a reduction of the computational effort. Both methods produce a central estimate of the hazard as well as a confidence interval, facilitating the rigorous quantification of the hazard uncertainties.

La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

2009-12-01

Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree developed for assessment can also be used in the reverse direction to evaluate a project impasse or to evaluate owners and time-frames associated with a particular risk management outcome. Although the processes developed were specific to the La Conchita study, we believe that they are applicable elsewhere for localized multi-hazard assessments and/or committee-led risk management efforts.

Effects of Assuming Independent Component Failure Times, If They Are Actually Dependent, in a Series System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-11-26

etc.).., Major decisions involving reliability ptudies, based on competing risk methodology , have been made in the past and will continue to be made...censoring mechanism. In such instances, the methodology for estimating relevant reliabili- ty probabilities has received considerable attention (cf. David...proposal for a discussion of the general methodology . .,4..% . - ’ -. - ’ . ’ , . * I - " . . - - - - . . ,_ . . . . . . . . .4

Observational studies of the association between glucose-lowering medications and cardiovascular outcomes: addressing methodological limitations.

PubMed

Patorno, Elisabetta; Patrick, Amanda R; Garry, Elizabeth M; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Gillet, Victoria G; Bartels, Dorothee B; Masso-Gonzalez, Elvira; Seeger, John D

2014-11-01

Recent years have witnessed a growing body of observational literature on the association between glucose-lowering treatments and cardiovascular disease. However, many of the studies are based on designs or analyses that inadequately address the methodological challenges involved. We reviewed recent observational literature on the association between glucose-lowering medications and cardiovascular outcomes and assessed the design and analysis methods used, with a focus on their ability to address specific methodological challenges. We describe and illustrate these methodological issues and their impact on observed associations, providing examples from the reviewed literature. We suggest approaches that may be employed to manage these methodological challenges. From the evaluation of 81 publications of observational investigations assessing the association between glucose-lowering treatments and cardiovascular outcomes, we identified the following methodological challenges: 1) handling of temporality in administrative databases; 2) handling of risks that vary with time and treatment duration; 3) definitions of the exposure risk window; 4) handling of exposures that change over time; and 5) handling of confounding by indication. Most of these methodological challenges may be suitably addressed through application of appropriate methods. Observational research plays an increasingly important role in the evaluation of the clinical effects of diabetes treatment. Implementation of appropriate research methods holds the promise of reducing the potential for spurious findings and the risk that the spurious findings will mislead the medical community about risks and benefits of diabetes medications.

42 CFR 436.601 - Application of financial eligibility methodologies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... VIRGIN ISLANDS General Financial Eligibility Requirements and Options § 436.601 Application of financial... methodologies in determining financial eligibility of the following groups: (i) Qualified pregnant women and children under the mandatory categorically needy group under § 436.120; (ii) Low-income pregnant women...

Mode Equivalence of Health Indicators Between Data Collection Modes and Mixed-Mode Survey Designs in Population-Based Health Interview Surveys for Children and Adolescents: Methodological Study.

PubMed

Mauz, Elvira; Hoffmann, Robert; Houben, Robin; Krause, Laura; Kamtsiuris, Panagiotis; Gößwald, Antje

2018-03-05

The implementation of an Internet option in an existing public health interview survey using a mixed-mode design is attractive because of lower costs and faster data availability. Additionally, mixed-mode surveys can increase response rates and improve sample composition. However, mixed-mode designs can increase the risk of measurement error (mode effects). This study aimed to determine whether the prevalence rates or mean values of self- and parent-reported health indicators for children and adolescents aged 0-17 years differ between self-administered paper-based questionnaires (SAQ-paper) and self-administered Web-based questionnaires (SAQ-Web), as well as between a single-mode control group and different mixed-mode groups. Data were collected for a methodological pilot of the third wave of the "German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents". Questionnaires were completed by parents or adolescents. A population-based sample of 11,140 children and adolescents aged 0-17 years was randomly allocated to 4 survey designs-a single-mode control group with paper-and-pencil questionnaires only (n=970 parents, n=343 adolescents)-and 3 mixed-mode designs, all of which offered Web-based questionnaire options. In the concurrent mixed-mode design, both questionnaires were offered at the same time (n=946 parents, n=290 adolescents); in the sequential mixed-mode design, the SAQ-Web was sent first, followed by the paper questionnaire along with a reminder (n=854 parents, n=269 adolescents); and in the preselect mixed-mode design, both options were offered and the respondents were asked to request the desired type of questionnaire (n=698 parents, n=292 adolescents). In total, 3468 questionnaires of parents of children aged 0-17 years (SAQ-Web: n=708; SAQ-paper: n=2760) and 1194 questionnaires of adolescents aged 11-17 years (SAQ-Web: n=299; SAQ-paper: n=895) were analyzed. Sociodemographic characteristics and a broad range of health indicators for children and adolescents were compared by survey design and data collection mode by calculating predictive margins from regression models. There were no statistically significant differences in sociodemographic characteristics or health indicators between the single-mode control group and any of the mixed-mode survey designs. Differences in sociodemographic characteristics between SAQ-Web and SAQ-paper were found. Web respondents were more likely to be male, have higher levels of education, and higher household income compared with paper respondents. After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, only one of the 38 analyzed health indicators showed different prevalence rates between the data collection modes, with a higher prevalence rate for lifetime alcohol consumption among the online-responding adolescents (P<.001). These results suggest that mode bias is limited in health interview surveys for children and adolescents using a mixed-mode design with Web-based and paper questionnaires. ©Elvira Mauz, Robert Hoffmann, Robin Houben, Laura Krause, Panagiotis Kamtsiuris, Antje Gößwald. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 05.03.2018.

Contract Design: Financial Options and Risk

PubMed Central

Amelung, Volker E.; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-01

Introduction: Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. When designing healthcare options contractors are faced with a variety of financial options. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. Methods: A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. This article is the second in a row of three that are all published in this issue and contribute to a specific issue in designing healthcare contracts. The first dealt with the organisation of contracts and information asymmetries, while part 3 concludes with the question of risk management and evaluation. The specific research question of this second article focusses on the financial options and reimbursement schemes that are available to define healthcare contracts. Results: A healthcare contract is a relational contract, which determines the level of reimbursement, the scope of services and the quality between service providers and payers, taking account of the risks relating to population and performance. A relational contract is an agreement based upon assumption of a longer timeframe. A major obstacle to the practical implementation of healthcare contracts is the prognosis of the inflows and outflows due to the actuarial risks of the insured population. Financing conditions and reimbursement arrangements that are based on a prospectively determined fixed price, have a significant drawback: it is very difficult to take the differences in health status and the utilisation of distinct insured clientele (panel) into account. Discussion and Conclusion: The first two articles of this series on contract design have shown that complete contracts in healthcare are unrealistic. Healthcare reimbursement contracts are incomplete contracts with a high degree of uncertainty. In incomplete contracts specific contractual regulations are not made for any eventuality. For this reason it is important that the parties agree on the prevention of endogenous risks (asymmetric information after the conclusion of the contract) and on the procedure in the case of unforeseen circumstances (the risks of random, parameter risk and change risks to the healthcare program). PMID:29588640

Contract Design: Financial Options and Risk.

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-12

Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. When designing healthcare options contractors are faced with a variety of financial options. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. This article is the second in a row of three that are all published in this issue and contribute to a specific issue in designing healthcare contracts. The first dealt with the organisation of contracts and information asymmetries, while part 3 concludes with the question of risk management and evaluation. The specific research question of this second article focusses on the financial options and reimbursement schemes that are available to define healthcare contracts. A healthcare contract is a relational contract, which determines the level of reimbursement, the scope of services and the quality between service providers and payers, taking account of the risks relating to population and performance. A relational contract is an agreement based upon assumption of a longer timeframe. A major obstacle to the practical implementation of healthcare contracts is the prognosis of the inflows and outflows due to the actuarial risks of the insured population. Financing conditions and reimbursement arrangements that are based on a prospectively determined fixed price, have a significant drawback: it is very difficult to take the differences in health status and the utilisation of distinct insured clientele (panel) into account. The first two articles of this series on contract design have shown that complete contracts in healthcare are unrealistic. Healthcare reimbursement contracts are incomplete contracts with a high degree of uncertainty. In incomplete contracts specific contractual regulations are not made for any eventuality. For this reason it is important that the parties agree on the prevention of endogenous risks (asymmetric information after the conclusion of the contract) and on the procedure in the case of unforeseen circumstances (the risks of random, parameter risk and change risks to the healthcare program).

Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

2014-05-01

There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from basic assumptions in the economic analysis and the hydrological model, but also from the projection of future societies to local climate change impacts and suitable adaptation options. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. We present an integrated uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver of risk changes over time. The overall uncertainty is then attributed to six bulk processes: climate change impact, urban rainfall-runoff processes, stage-depth functions, unit cost of repair, cost of adaptation measures, and discount rate. We apply the approach on an urban hydrological catchment in Odense, Denmark, and find that the uncertainty on the climate change impact appears to have the least influence on the net present value of the studied adaptation measures-. This does not imply that the climate change impact is not important, but that the uncertainties are not dominating when deciding on action or in-action. We then consider the uncertainty related to choosing between adaptation options given that a decision of action has been taken. In this case the major part of the uncertainty on the estimated net present values is identical for all adaptation options and will therefore not affect a comparison between adaptation measures. This makes the chose among the options easier. Furthermore, the explicit attribution of uncertainty also enables a reduction of the overall uncertainty by identifying the processes which contributes the most. This knowledge can then be used to further reduce the uncertainty related to decision making, as a substantial part of the remaining uncertainty is epistemic.

Application of risk analysis in water resourses management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varouchakis, Emmanouil; Palogos, Ioannis

2017-04-01

A common cost-benefit analysis approach, which is novel in the risk analysis of hydrologic/hydraulic applications, and a Bayesian decision analysis are applied to aid the decision making on whether or not to construct a water reservoir for irrigation purposes. The alternative option examined is a scaled parabolic fine variation in terms of over-pumping violations in contrast to common practices that usually consider short-term fines. Such an application, and in such detail, represents new feedback. The results indicate that the probability uncertainty is the driving issue that determines the optimal decision with each methodology, and depending on the unknown probability handling, each methodology may lead to a different optimal decision. Thus, the proposed tool can help decision makers (stakeholders) to examine and compare different scenarios using two different approaches before making a decision considering the cost of a hydrologic/hydraulic project and the varied economic charges that water table limit violations can cause inside an audit interval. In contrast to practices that assess the effect of each proposed action separately considering only current knowledge of the examined issue, this tool aids decision making by considering prior information and the sampling distribution of future successful audits. This tool is developed in a web service for the easier stakeholders' access.

Randomized controlled trials of simulation-based interventions in Emergency Medicine: a methodological review.

PubMed

Chauvin, Anthony; Truchot, Jennifer; Bafeta, Aida; Pateron, Dominique; Plaisance, Patrick; Yordanov, Youri

2018-04-01

The number of trials assessing Simulation-Based Medical Education (SBME) interventions has rapidly expanded. Many studies show that potential flaws in design, conduct and reporting of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) can bias their results. We conducted a methodological review of RCTs assessing a SBME in Emergency Medicine (EM) and examined their methodological characteristics. We searched MEDLINE via PubMed for RCT that assessed a simulation intervention in EM, published in 6 general and internal medicine and in the top 10 EM journals. The Cochrane Collaboration risk of Bias tool was used to assess risk of bias, intervention reporting was evaluated based on the "template for intervention description and replication" checklist, and methodological quality was evaluated by the Medical Education Research Study Quality Instrument. Reports selection and data extraction was done by 2 independents researchers. From 1394 RCTs screened, 68 trials assessed a SBME intervention. They represent one quarter of our sample. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is the most frequent topic (81%). Random sequence generation and allocation concealment were performed correctly in 66 and 49% of trials. Blinding of participants and assessors was performed correctly in 19 and 68%. Risk of attrition bias was low in three-quarters of the studies (n = 51). Risk of selective reporting bias was unclear in nearly all studies. The mean MERQSI score was of 13.4/18.4% of the reports provided a description allowing the intervention replication. Trials assessing simulation represent one quarter of RCTs in EM. Their quality remains unclear, and reproducing the interventions appears challenging due to reporting issues.

LC-MS based analysis of endogenous steroid hormones in human hair.

PubMed

Gao, Wei; Kirschbaum, Clemens; Grass, Juliane; Stalder, Tobias

2016-09-01

The quantification of endogenous steroid hormone concentrations in hair is increasingly used as a method for obtaining retrospective information on long-term integrated hormone exposure. Several different analytical procedures have been employed for hair steroid analysis, with liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) being recognized as a particularly powerful analytical tool. Several methodological aspects affect the performance of LC-MS systems for hair steroid analysis, including sample preparation and pretreatment, steroid extraction, post-incubation purification, LC methodology, ionization techniques and MS specifications. Here, we critically review the differential value of such protocol variants for hair steroid hormones analysis, focusing on both analytical quality and practical feasibility issues. Our results show that, when methodological challenges are adequately addressed, LC-MS protocols can not only yield excellent sensitivity and specificity but are also characterized by relatively simple sample processing and short run times. This makes LC-MS based hair steroid protocols particularly suitable as a high-quality option for routine application in research contexts requiring the processing of larger numbers of samples. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Threat Assessment and Remediation Analysis (TARA)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

of countermeasure selection strategies that prescribe the application of countermeasures based on level of risk tolerance. This paper outlines the...catalog data, which are discussed later in this paper . The methodology can be described as conjoined trade studies, where the first trade identifies and...ranks vulnerabilities based on assessed risk, and the second identifies and selects countermeasures based on assessed utility and cost. This paper

Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites part 2: ranking of potentially contaminated sites.

PubMed

Pizzol, Lisa; Critto, Andrea; Agostini, Paola; Marcomini, Antonio

2011-11-01

Environmental risks are traditionally assessed and presented in non spatial ways although the heterogeneity of the contaminants spatial distributions, the spatial positions and relations between receptors and stressors, as well as the spatial distribution of the variables involved in the risk assessment, strongly influence exposure estimations and hence risks. Taking into account spatial variability is increasingly being recognized as a further and essential step in sound exposure and risk assessment. To address this issue an innovative methodology which integrates spatial analysis and a relative risk approach was developed. The purpose of this methodology is to prioritize sites at regional scale where a preliminary site investigation may be required. The methodology aimed at supporting the inventory of contaminated sites was implemented within the spatial decision support sYstem for Regional rIsk Assessment of DEgraded land, SYRIADE, and was applied to the case-study of the Upper Silesia region (Poland). The developed methodology and tool are both flexible and easy to adapt to different regional contexts, allowing the user to introduce the regional relevant parameters identified on the basis of user expertise and regional data availability. Moreover, the used GIS functionalities, integrated with mathematical approaches, allow to take into consideration, all at once, the multiplicity of sources and impacted receptors within the region of concern, to assess the risks posed by all contaminated sites in the region and, finally, to provide a risk-based ranking of the potentially contaminated sites. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Hybrid analysis for indicating patients with breast cancer using temperature time series.

PubMed

Silva, Lincoln F; Santos, Alair Augusto S M D; Bravo, Renato S; Silva, Aristófanes C; Muchaluat-Saade, Débora C; Conci, Aura

2016-07-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women worldwide. Diagnosis and treatment in early stages increase cure chances. The temperature of cancerous tissue is generally higher than that of healthy surrounding tissues, making thermography an option to be considered in screening strategies of this cancer type. This paper proposes a hybrid methodology for analyzing dynamic infrared thermography in order to indicate patients with risk of breast cancer, using unsupervised and supervised machine learning techniques, which characterizes the methodology as hybrid. The dynamic infrared thermography monitors or quantitatively measures temperature changes on the examined surface, after a thermal stress. In the dynamic infrared thermography execution, a sequence of breast thermograms is generated. In the proposed methodology, this sequence is processed and analyzed by several techniques. First, the region of the breasts is segmented and the thermograms of the sequence are registered. Then, temperature time series are built and the k-means algorithm is applied on these series using various values of k. Clustering formed by k-means algorithm, for each k value, is evaluated using clustering validation indices, generating values treated as features in the classification model construction step. A data mining tool was used to solve the combined algorithm selection and hyperparameter optimization (CASH) problem in classification tasks. Besides the classification algorithm recommended by the data mining tool, classifiers based on Bayesian networks, neural networks, decision rules and decision tree were executed on the data set used for evaluation. Test results support that the proposed analysis methodology is able to indicate patients with breast cancer. Among 39 tested classification algorithms, K-Star and Bayes Net presented 100% classification accuracy. Furthermore, among the Bayes Net, multi-layer perceptron, decision table and random forest classification algorithms, an average accuracy of 95.38% was obtained. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

SYNTHESIS OF SPATIAL DATA FOR DECISION-MAKING

EPA Science Inventory

EPA'S Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program (ReVA) has developed a web-based statistical tool that synthesizes available spatial data into indices of condition, vulnerability (risk, considering cumulative effects), and feasibility of management options. The Environmental Deci...

Sleep disturbances as an evidence-based suicide risk factor.

PubMed

Bernert, Rebecca A; Kim, Joanne S; Iwata, Naomi G; Perlis, Michael L

2015-03-01

Increasing research indicates that sleep disturbances may confer increased risk for suicidal behaviors, including suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and death by suicide. Despite increased investigation, a number of methodological problems present important limitations to the validity and generalizability of findings in this area, which warrant additional focus. To evaluate and delineate sleep disturbances as an evidence-based suicide risk factor, a systematic review of the extant literature was conducted with methodological considerations as a central focus. The following methodologic criteria were required for inclusion: the report (1) evaluated an index of sleep disturbance; (2) examined an outcome measure for suicidal behavior; (3) adjusted for presence of a depression diagnosis or depression severity, as a covariate; and (4) represented an original investigation as opposed to a chart review. Reports meeting inclusion criteria were further classified and reviewed according to: study design and timeframe; sample type and size; sleep disturbance, suicide risk, and depression covariate assessment measure(s); and presence of positive versus negative findings. Based on keyword search, the following search engines were used: PubMed and PsycINFO. Search criteria generated N = 82 articles representing original investigations focused on sleep disturbances and suicide outcomes. Of these, N = 18 met inclusion criteria for review based on systematic analysis. Of the reports identified, N = 18 evaluated insomnia or poor sleep quality symptoms, whereas N = 8 assessed nightmares in association with suicide risk. Despite considerable differences in study designs, samples, and assessment techniques, the comparison of such reports indicates preliminary, converging evidence for sleep disturbances as an empirical risk factor for suicidal behaviors, while highlighting important, future directions for increased investigation.

Designing flexible engineering systems utilizing embedded architecture options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, Jeff G.

This dissertation develops and applies an integrated framework for embedding flexibility in an engineered system architecture. Systems are constantly faced with unpredictability in the operational environment, threats from competing systems, obsolescence of technology, and general uncertainty in future system demands. Current systems engineering and risk management practices have focused almost exclusively on mitigating or preventing the negative consequences of uncertainty. This research recognizes that high uncertainty also presents an opportunity to design systems that can flexibly respond to changing requirements and capture additional value throughout the design life. There does not exist however a formalized approach to designing appropriately flexible systems. This research develops a three stage integrated flexibility framework based on the concept of architecture options embedded in the system design. Stage One defines an eight step systems engineering process to identify candidate architecture options. This process encapsulates the operational uncertainty though scenario development, traces new functional requirements to the affected design variables, and clusters the variables most sensitive to change. The resulting clusters can generate insight into the most promising regions in the architecture to embed flexibility in the form of architecture options. Stage Two develops a quantitative option valuation technique, grounded in real options theory, which is able to value embedded architecture options that exhibit variable expiration behavior. Stage Three proposes a portfolio optimization algorithm, for both discrete and continuous options, to select the optimal subset of architecture options, subject to budget and risk constraints. Finally, the feasibility, extensibility and limitations of the framework are assessed by its application to a reconnaissance satellite system development problem. Detailed technical data, performance models, and cost estimates were compiled for the Tactical Imaging Constellation Architecture Study and leveraged to complete a realistic proof-of-concept.

Cost and Schedule Analytical Techniques Development: Option 2 Year

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1997-01-01

This Final Report summarizes the activities performed by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) for the Option 2 Year from December 1, 1996 through November 30, 1997. The Final Report is in compliance with Paragraph 5 of Section F of the contract. This CSATD contract provides products and deliverable in the form of models, data bases, methodologies, studies and analyses for the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) Engineering Cost Office (PPO3) the Program Plans and Requirements Officer (PP02), and other user organizations. Detailed Monthly Progress reports were submitted to MSFC in accordance with the contract's Statement of Work, Section TV "Reporting and Documentation". These reports spelled out each month's specific work accomplishments, deliverables submitted, major meetings held, and other pertinent information. This Final Report will summarize these activities at higher level. During this contract Option Year, SAIC expended 29,830 man-hours in tile performance of tasks called out in the Statement of Work and reported oil in this yearly Final Report. This represents approximately 16 full-time EPs. Included are the basis Huntsville-based team, plus SAIC specialists in San Diego, Ames Research Center, Chicago, and Colorado Springs performing specific tasks for which they are uniquely qualified.

A study to assess COPD Symptom-based Management and to Optimise treatment Strategy in Japan (COSMOS-J) based on GOLD 2011.

PubMed

Betsuyaku, Tomoko; Kato, Motokazu; Fujimoto, Keisaku; Hagan, Gerry; Kobayashi, Akihiro; Hitosugi, Hideki; James, Mark; Jones, Paul W

2013-01-01

The Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) Committee has proposed a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) assessment framework focused on symptoms and on exacerbation risk. This study will evaluate a symptom and exacerbation risk-based treatment strategy based on GOLD in a real-world setting in Japan. Optimal management of COPD will be determined by assessing symptoms using the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) and by assessing the frequency of exacerbations. This study (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01762800) is a 24-week, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, double-dummy, parallel-group study. It aims to recruit 400 patients with moderate-to-severe COPD. Patients will be randomized to receive treatment with either salmeterol/fluticasone propionate (SFC) 50/250 μg twice daily or with tiotropium bromide 18 μg once daily. Optimal management of patients will be assessed at four-weekly intervals and, if patients remain symptomatic, as measured using the CAT, or experience an exacerbation, they have the option to step up to treatment with both drugs, ie, SFC twice daily and tiotropium once daily (TRIPLE therapy). The primary endpoint of the study will be the proportion of patients who are able to remain on the randomized therapy. No data are available. This paper summarizes the methodology of the study in advance of the study starting. The results of this study will help physicians to understand whether TRIPLE therapy is more effective than either treatment strategy alone in controlling symptoms and exacerbations in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD. It will also help physicians to understand the GOLD recommendation work in Japan.

Forecasting daily passenger traffic volumes in the Moscow metro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, V. V.; Osetrov, E. S.

2018-01-01

In this paper we have developed a methodology for the medium-term prediction of daily volumes of passenger traffic in the Moscow metro. It includes three options for the forecast: (1) based on artificial neural networks (ANNs), (2) singular-spectral analysis implemented in the Caterpillar-SSA package, and (3) a combination of the ANN and Caterpillar-SSA approaches. The methods and algorithms allow the mediumterm forecasting of passenger traffic flows in the Moscow metro with reasonable accuracy.

Supporting Air and Space Expeditionary Forces: Analysis of Combat Support Basing Options

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-01-01

Brooke et al., 2003. 13 For more information on Set Covering models, see Daskin , 1995. Analysis Methodology 43 Transportation Model. A detailed...This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND Corporation. 6Jump down to document Visit RAND at...www.rand.org Explore RAND Project AIR FORCE View document details This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a

Internet research in an international context.

PubMed

Baernholdt, Marianne; Clarke, Sean P

2006-02-01

Computers and the Internet provide researchers with new options in surveying. When using electronic surveys, several practical and methodological issues need to be considered such as whether the majority of the surveyed population has Internet access and whether an e-mail or a Web-based survey is most appropriate. Other important considerations relate to Internet security issues and, in international research, the possibility of language barriers. Despite these challenges, electronic surveys offer a promising alternative to conventional mail surveys.

Identifying Aircraft and Personnel Needs to Meet On-station Patrol Requirements

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-17

One option would be to develop a fully stochastic model that explicitly examined unplanned maintenance ( Marlow and Novak 2013; Mattila et al. 2008...stationed at the base and the serviceability rate, respectively (as in Marlow and Novak 2013). Next, if one assumes that, for the number of available AU...of Intelligent & Robotic Systems 70: 347-359. 7. Marlow D and Novak A (2013). Fleet Sizing Analysis Methodologies for the Royal Australian Navy’s

In the queue for coronary artery bypass grafting: patients' perceptions of risk and 'maximal acceptable waiting time'.

PubMed

Llewellyn-Thomas, H; Thiel, E; Paterson, M; Naylor, D

1999-04-01

To elicit patients' maximal acceptable waiting times (MAWT) for non-urgent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), and to determine if MAWT is related to prior expectations of waiting times, symptom burden, expected relief, or perceived risks of myocardial infarction while waiting. Seventy-two patients on an elective CABG waiting list chose between two hypothetical but plausible options: a 1-month wait with 2% risk of surgical mortality, and a 6-month wait with 1% risk of surgical mortality. Waiting time in the 6-month option was varied up if respondents chose the 6-month/lower risk option, and down if they chose the 1-month/higher risk option, until the MAWT switch point was reached. Patients also reported their expected waiting time, perceived risks of myocardial infarction while waiting, current function, expected functional improvement and the value of that improvement. Only 17 (24%) patients chose the 6-month/1% risk option, while 55 (76%) chose the 1-month/2% risk option. The median MAWT was 2 months; scores ranged from 1 to 12 months (with two outliers). Many perceived high cumulative risks of myocardial infarction if waiting for 1 (upper quartile, > or = 1.45%) or 6 (upper quartile, > or = 10%) months. However, MAWT scores were related only to expected waiting time (r = 0.47; P < 0.0001). Most patients reject waiting 6 months for elective CABG, even if offered along with a halving in surgical mortality (from 2% to 1%). Intolerance for further delay seems to be determined primarily by patients' attachment to their scheduled surgical dates. Many also have severely inflated perceptions of their risk of myocardial infarction in the queue. These results suggest a need for interventions to modify patients' inaccurate risk perceptions, particularly if a scheduled surgical date must be deferred.

Risk assessment in the 21st century: roadmap and matrix.

PubMed

Embry, Michelle R; Bachman, Ammie N; Bell, David R; Boobis, Alan R; Cohen, Samuel M; Dellarco, Michael; Dewhurst, Ian C; Doerrer, Nancy G; Hines, Ronald N; Moretto, Angelo; Pastoor, Timothy P; Phillips, Richard D; Rowlands, J Craig; Tanir, Jennifer Y; Wolf, Douglas C; Doe, John E

2014-08-01

Abstract The RISK21 integrated evaluation strategy is a problem formulation-based exposure-driven risk assessment roadmap that takes advantage of existing information to graphically represent the intersection of exposure and toxicity data on a highly visual matrix. This paper describes in detail the process for using the roadmap and matrix. The purpose of this methodology is to optimize the use of prior information and testing resources (animals, time, facilities, and personnel) to efficiently and transparently reach a risk and/or safety determination. Based on the particular problem, exposure and toxicity data should have sufficient precision to make such a decision. Estimates of exposure and toxicity, bounded by variability and/or uncertainty, are plotted on the X- and Y-axes of the RISK21 matrix, respectively. The resulting intersection is a highly visual representation of estimated risk. Decisions can then be made to increase precision in the exposure or toxicity estimates or declare that the available information is sufficient. RISK21 represents a step forward in the goal to introduce new methodologies into 21st century risk assessment. Indeed, because of its transparent and visual process, RISK21 has the potential to widen the scope of risk communication beyond those with technical expertise.

Combined Volatolomics for Monitoring of Human Body Chemistry

PubMed Central

Broza, Yoav Y.; Zuri, Liat; Haick, Hossam

2014-01-01

Analysis of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is a promising approach for non-invasive, fast and potentially inexpensive diagnostics. Here, we present a new methodology for profiling the body chemistry by using the volatile fraction of molecules in various body fluids. Using mass spectrometry and cross-reactive nanomaterial-based sensors array, we demonstrate that simultaneous VOC detection from breath and skin would provide complementary, non-correlated information of the body's volatile metabolites profile. Eventually with further wide population validation studies, such a methodology could provide more accurate monitoring of pathological changes compared to the information provided by a single body fluid. The qualitative and quantitative methods presented here offers a variety of options for novel mapping of the metabolic properties of complex organisms, including humans. PMID:24714440

Combined volatolomics for monitoring of human body chemistry.

PubMed

Broza, Yoav Y; Zuri, Liat; Haick, Hossam

2014-04-09

Analysis of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is a promising approach for non-invasive, fast and potentially inexpensive diagnostics. Here, we present a new methodology for profiling the body chemistry by using the volatile fraction of molecules in various body fluids. Using mass spectrometry and cross-reactive nanomaterial-based sensors array, we demonstrate that simultaneous VOC detection from breath and skin would provide complementary, non-correlated information of the body's volatile metabolites profile. Eventually with further wide population validation studies, such a methodology could provide more accurate monitoring of pathological changes compared to the information provided by a single body fluid. The qualitative and quantitative methods presented here offers a variety of options for novel mapping of the metabolic properties of complex organisms, including humans.

Raw food diets in companion animals: A critical review

PubMed Central

Schlesinger, Daniel P.; Joffe, Daniel J.

2011-01-01

Feeding of raw meat-based diets to pets has become an increasingly popular trend amongst pet owners. Owners, who desire to provide the best for their pets, seek veterinary opinions about food options. This paper reviews and applies standards of evidence-based medicine to grade the available scientific literature that addresses the nutritional benefits or risks, infectious disease risks, and public health implications of raw, meat-based pet diets. Although there is a lack of large cohort studies to evaluate risk or benefit of raw meat diets fed to pets, there is enough evidence to compel veterinarians to discuss human health implications of these diets with owners. PMID:21461207

Evaluating the sustainability of an energy supply system using renewable energy sources: An energy demand assessment of South Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Cedric Fitzgerald

Sustainable energy is defined as a dynamic harmony between the equitable availability of energy-intensive goods and services to all people and the preservation of the earth for future generations. Sustainable energy development continues to be a major focus within the government and regulatory governing bodies in the electric utility industry. This is as a result of continued demand for electricity and the impact of greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generating plants on the environment by way of the greenhouse effect. A culmination of increasing concerns about climate change, the nuclear incident in Fukushima four years ago, and discussions on energy security in a world with growing energy demand have led to a movement for increasing the share of power generation from renewable energy sources. This work studies demand for electricity from primarily residential, commercial, agricultural, and industrial customers in South Carolina (SC) and its effect on the environment from coal-fired electricity generating plants. Moreover, this work studies sustainable renewable energy source-options based on the renewable resources available in the state of SC, as viable options to supplement generation from coal-fired electricity generating plants. In addition, greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants from primarily coal-fired plants will be defined and quantified. Fundamental renewable energy source options will be defined and quantified based on availability and sustainability of SC's natural resources. This work studies the environmental, economic, and technical aspects of each renewable energy source as a sustainable energy option to replace power generation from coal-fired plants. Additionally, social aspect implications will be incorporated into each of the three aspects listed above, as these aspects are explored during the research and analysis. Electricity demand data and alternative energy source-supply data in SC are carried out and are used to develop and run the Sustainable Systems Analysis Algorithm (SSAA) and the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) decision models. The following alternative energy sources for electricity (kilo- and megawatt output) will be assessed in this paper: solar, biomass and biofuels, hydro, geothermal, onshore wind, offshore wind, tidal, and natural gas. The SSAA methodology, in conjunction with the MCDA model techniques, will be used to obtain sustainable, alternative energy source system options; the system will attempt to balance its three linked aspects (environmental, economic, and technical). The results, based on the Sustainability Directive three-dimensional vector calculations from each alternative energy source option, are presented in this paper. Moving towards sustainability is a dynamically changing process, and the SSAA methodology is a synergist for system modifications that strives for continuous improvement toward the Ideal Sustainability Directive.

Treating Clinical Depression with Repetitive Deep Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation Using the Brainsway H1-coil.

PubMed

Feifel, David; Pappas, Katherine

2016-10-04

Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) is an emerging non-pharmacological approach to treating many brain-based disorders. rTMS uses electromagnetic coils to stimulate areas of the brain non-invasively. Deep transcranial magnetic stimulation (dTMS) with the Brainsway H1-coil system specifically is a type of rTMS indicated for treating patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) who are resistant to medication. The unique H1-coil design of this device is able to stimulate neuronal pathways that lie deeper in the targeted brain areas than those reached by conventional rTMS coils. dTMS is considered to be low-risk and well tolerated, making it a viable treatment option for people who have not responded to medication or psychotherapy trials for their depression. Randomized, sham-control studies have demonstrated that dTMS produces significantly greater improvement in depressive symptoms than sham dTMS treatment in patients with major depression that has not responded to antidepressant medication. In this paper, we will review the methodology for treating major depression with dTMS using an H1-coil.

The impact of precommitment on risk-taking while gambling: A preliminary study.

PubMed

Brevers, Damien; Noel, Xavier; Clark, Luke; Zyuzin, Jekaterina; Justin Park, Joohwan; Bechara, Antoine

2016-03-01

Background and aims Precommitment refers to the ability to prospectively restrict the access to temptations. This study examined whether risk-taking during gambling is decreased when an individual has the opportunity to precommit to his forthcoming bet. Methods Sixty individuals participated in a gambling task that consisted of direct choice (simply chose one monetary option among four available ones, ranging from low-risk to high-risk options) or precommitment trials (before choosing an amount, participants had the opportunity to make a binding choice that made high-risk options unavailable). Results We found that participants utilized the precommitment option, such that risk-taking was decreased on precommitment trials compared to direct choices. Within the precommitment trials, there was no significant difference in risk-taking following decisions to restrict versus non-restrict. Discussion These findings suggest that the opportunity to precommit may be sufficient to reduce the attractiveness of risk. Conclusions Present results might be exploited to create interventions aiming at enhancing one's ability to anticipate self-control failures while gambling.

Vasectomy as a reversible form of contraception for select patients.

PubMed

Samplaski, Mary K; Daniel, Ariande; Jarvi, Keith

2014-04-01

To provide an effective form of birth control, men may choose a reversible or permanent form of contraception. Vasectomy is presently offered as a permanent option for male contraception. We have had patients who were interested in vasectomy and reversal as a temporary birth control option. The purpose of this paper is to determine if vasectomy should be offered for selected couples as a temporary form of contraception and under which circumstances. A literature review was conducted to determine the available reversible contraceptive options, risks, failure rates and contraindications to each, and the risks and success rates of vasectomy and vasectomy reversal. Reversible contraceptives include hormonally based methods for women, non-hormonal anatomic barrier devices and spermatocidal agents. Hormone based therapies may be contraindicated in women with cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and some cancers. Non-hormonal contraceptives are generally less effective and may be unacceptable for some couples due to higher failure rates, difficulty of use and lack of acceptance. Both vasectomy and vasectomy reversal are low risk procedures. Reversal may be performed with a high degree of success, particularly with a short obstructive interval (97% patency if performed < 3 years following vasectomy). While vasectomy should be considered a permanent form of sterilization for most couples, there are select couples, unable or unwilling to use other forms of birth control, who would benefit from an informed discussion about using a vasectomy as a reversible form of contraception.

Diabetes management and hypoglycemia in safety sensitive jobs.

PubMed

Lee, See-Muah; Koh, David; Chui, Winnie Kl; Sum, Chee-Fang

2011-03-01

The majority of people diagnosed with diabetes mellitus are in the working age group in developing countries. The interrelationship of diabetes and work, that is, diabetes affecting work and work affecting diabetes, becomes an important issue for these people. Therapeutic options for the diabetic worker have been developed, and currently include various insulins, insulin sensitizers and secretagogues, incretin mimetics and enhancers, and alpha glucosidase inhibitors. Hypoglycemia and hypoglycaemic unawareness are important and unwanted treatment side effects. The risk they pose with respect to cognitive impairment can have safety implications. The understanding of the therapeutic options in the management of diabetic workers, blood glucose awareness training, and self-monitoring blood glucose will help to mitigate this risk. Employment decisions must also take into account the extent to which the jobs performed by the worker are safety sensitive. A risk assessment matrix, based on the extent to which a job is considered safety sensitive and based on the severity of the hypoglycaemia, may assist in determining one's fitness to work. Support at the workplace, such as a provision of healthy food options and arrangements for affected workers will be helpful for such workers. Arrangements include permission to carry and consume emergency sugar, flexible meal times, self-monitoring blood glucose when required, storage/disposal facilities for medicine such as insulin and needles, time off for medical appointments, and structured self-help programs.

Diabetes Management and Hypoglycemia in Safety Sensitive Jobs

PubMed Central

Koh, David; Chui, Winnie KL; Sum, Chee-Fang

2011-01-01

The majority of people diagnosed with diabetes mellitus are in the working age group in developing countries. The interrelationship of diabetes and work, that is, diabetes affecting work and work affecting diabetes, becomes an important issue for these people. Therapeutic options for the diabetic worker have been developed, and currently include various insulins, insulin sensitizers and secretagogues, incretin mimetics and enhancers, and alpha glucosidase inhibitors. Hypoglycemia and hypoglycaemic unawareness are important and unwanted treatment side effects. The risk they pose with respect to cognitive impairment can have safety implications. The understanding of the therapeutic options in the management of diabetic workers, blood glucose awareness training, and self-monitoring blood glucose will help to mitigate this risk. Employment decisions must also take into account the extent to which the jobs performed by the worker are safety sensitive. A risk assessment matrix, based on the extent to which a job is considered safety sensitive and based on the severity of the hypoglycaemia, may assist in determining one's fitness to work. Support at the workplace, such as a provision of healthy food options and arrangements for affected workers will be helpful for such workers. Arrangements include permission to carry and consume emergency sugar, flexible meal times, self-monitoring blood glucose when required, storage/disposal facilities for medicine such as insulin and needles, time off for medical appointments, and structured self-help programs. PMID:22953182

Vehicle mass and injury risk in two-car crashes: A novel methodology.

PubMed

Tolouei, Reza; Maher, Mike; Titheridge, Helena

2013-01-01

This paper introduces a novel methodology based on disaggregate analysis of two-car crash data to estimate the partial effects of mass, through the velocity change, on absolute driver injury risk in each of the vehicles involved in the crash when absolute injury risk is defined as the probability of injury when the vehicle is involved in a two-car crash. The novel aspect of the introduced methodology is in providing a solution to the issue of lack of data on the speed of vehicles prior to the crash, which is required to calculate the velocity change, as well as a solution to the issue of lack of information on non-injury two-car crashes in national accident data. These issues have often led to focussing on relative measures of injury risk that are not independent of risk in the colliding cars. Furthermore, the introduced methodology is used to investigate whether there is any effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of mass ratio, and whether there are any effects associated with the gender and age of the drivers. The methodology was used to analyse two-car crashes to investigate the partial effects of vehicle mass and size on absolute driver injury risk. The results confirmed that in a two-car collision, vehicle mass has a protective effect on its own driver injury risk and an aggressive effect on the driver injury risk of the colliding vehicle. The results also confirmed that there is a protective effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of vehicle mass for frontal and front to side collisions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

2011-01-01

The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial wildfire risk assessment tool, developed in response to demands for improved risk-based decision frameworks. The methodology...

Load leveling on industrial refrigeration systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierenbaum, H. S.; Kraus, A. D.

1982-01-01

A computer model was constructed of a brewery with a 2000 horsepower compressor/refrigeration system. The various conservation and load management options were simulated using the validated model. The savings available for implementing the most promising options were verified by trials in the brewery. Result show that an optimized methodology for implementing load leveling and energy conservation consisted of: (1) adjusting (or tuning) refrigeration systems controller variables to minimize unnecessary compressor starts, (2) The primary refrigeration system operating parameters, compressor suction pressure, and discharge pressure are carefully controlled (modulated) to satisfy product quality constraints (as well as in-process material cooling rates and temperature levels) and energy evaluating the energy cost savings associated with reject heat recovery, and (4) a decision is made to implement the reject heat recovery system based on a cost/benefits analysis.

Online, Interactive Option Grid Patient Decision Aids and their Effect on User Preferences.

PubMed

Scalia, Peter; Durand, Marie-Anne; Kremer, Jan; Faber, Marjan; Elwyn, Glyn

2018-01-01

Randomized trials have shown that patient decision aids can modify users' preferred healthcare options, but research has yet to identify the attributes embedded in these tools that cause preferences to shift. The aim of this study was to investigate people's preferences as they used decision aids for 5 health decisions and, for each of the following: 1) determine if using the interactive Option Grid led to a pre-post shift in preferences; 2) determine which frequently asked questions (FAQs) led to preference shifts; 3) determine the FAQs that were rated as the most important as users compared options. Interactive Option Grid decision aids enable users to view attributes of available treatment or screening options, rate their importance, and specify their preferred options before and after decision aid use. The McNemar-Bowker paired test was used to compare stated pre-post preferences. Multinomial logistic regressions were conducted to investigate possible associations between covariates and preference shifts. Overall, 626 users completed the 5 most-used tools: 1) Amniocentesis test: yes or no? ( n = 73); 2) Angina: treatment options ( n = 88); 3) Breast cancer: surgical options ( n = 265); 4) Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) test: yes or no? ( n = 82); 5) Statins for heart disease risk: yes or no? ( n = 118). The breast cancer, PSA, and statins Option Grid decision aids generated significant preference shifts. Generally, users shifted their preference when presented with the description of the available treatment options, and the risk associated with each option. The use of decision aids for some, but not all health decisions, was accompanied by a shift in user preferences. Users typically valued information associated with risks, and chose more risk averse options after completing the interactive tool.

Integrated dynamic policy management methodology and system for strategic environmental assessment of golf course installation policy in Taiwan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Ching-Ho, E-mail: chchen@tea.ntue.edu.t; Liu, Wei-Lin, E-mail: wlliu@nanya.edu.t; Graduate Institute of Environmental Engineering, National Central University, Jungli, Taoyuan 320, Taiwan

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) focuses primarily on assessing how policies, plans, and programs (PPPs) influence the sustainability of the involved regions. However, the processes of assessing policies and developing management strategies for pollution load and resource use are usually separate in the current SEA system. This study developed a policy management methodology to overcome the defects generated during the above processes. This work first devised a dynamic management framework using the methods of systems thinking, system dynamics, and Managing for Results (MFRs). Furthermore, a driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) indicator system was developed. The golf course installation policy was applied as amore » case study. Taiwan, counties of Taiwan, and the golf courses within those individual counties were identified as a system, subsystems, and objects, respectively. This study identified an object-linked double-layer framework with multi-stage-option to simultaneously to quantify golf courses in each subsystem and determine ratios of abatement and allocation for pollution load and resource use of each golf course. The DPSIR indicator values for each item of each golf course in each subsystem are calculated based on the options taken in the two decision layers. The summation of indicator values for all items of all golf courses in all subsystems according to various options is defined as the sustainability value of the policy. An optimization model and a system (IDPMS) were developed to obtain the greatest sustainability value of the policy, while golf course quantity, human activity intensity, total quantities of pollution load and resource use are simultaneously obtained. The solution method based on enumeration of multiple bounds for objectives and constraints (EMBOC) was developed for the problem with 1.95 x 10{sup 128} combinations of possible options to solve the optimal solution in ten minutes using a personal computer with 3.0 GHz CPU. This study obtain the policy with the optimal environmental sustainability value in Taiwan is 102 golf courses. Human activity intensity and total quantities of pollution load and resource use which are concurrently obtained are less than those of the existing policy and the existing quantities in 2006. The optimal solution remains unchanged under most sensitivity analysis conditions, unless the weights and constraints are extremely changed. The analytical results indicate that the proposed methodology can be used to assist the authorities for simultaneously generating and assessing the policy during the SEA process.« less

Clinically localized prostate cancer in 2017: A review of comparative effectiveness.

PubMed

Lavery, Hugh J; Cooperberg, Matthew R

2017-02-01

Introducing the topic of comparative effectiveness for prostate cancer treatments with a reminder of the disease's heterogeneity risks tautology. However, the profound variation both in this cancer's biology and its clinical course is increasingly widely recognized, while management alternatives for clinically localized prostate cancer have exploded. Available options now include active surveillance, multiple surgical approaches to prostatectomy, various forms of external-beam and interstitial radiation, and a growing list of energy ablative technologies. Each treatment option has its own efficacy rate as well as its own set of complications, side effects and financial costs. Difficulties comparing these options, together with the high prevalence of the disease, led the Institute of Medicine to include localized prostate cancer among the top 25 priority conditions for future comparative effectiveness research. The sheer volume of possible treatment options, with their individual risks and benefits, can be confusing for patients and clinicians to research, understand and explain. To help clinicians navigate these treatment options, we have assembled this Urologic Oncology Seminar on the comparative effectiveness of treatments for clinically localized prostate cancer. The articles focus on high quality evidence-based medicine and most have included useful tables summarizing seminal trials and available resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of health risks of policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk; Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen; Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidancemore » and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.« less

[Biologic therapy in idiopathic inflammatory myopathy].

PubMed

Selva-O'Callaghan, Albert; Ramos Casals, Manel; Grau Junyent, Josep M

2014-09-15

The aim of this article is to study the evidence-based knowledge related to the use of biological therapies in patients diagnosed with idiopathic inflammatory myopathy (dermatomyositis, polymyositis and inclusion body myositis). In this review the leading published studies related to the use of biological therapy in patients with myositis are analysed; mainly those with high methodological standards, that means randomized and controlled studies. Methodological drawbacks due to the rarity and heterogeneity of these complex diseases are also addressed. Up to now is not possible to ascertain the biologics as a recommended therapy in patients with myositis, at least based in the current evidence-based knowledge, although it can not be neglected as a therapeutic option in some clinical situations, taking into account the scarce of effective treatments in those patients, especially in refractory myositis. Future studies probably will help to better define the role of biological therapies in patients with idiopathic inflammatory myopathy. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Potential new regulatory options for e-cigarettes in New Zealand.

PubMed

Wilson, Nick; Edwards, Richard; Hoek, Janet; Thomson, George; Blakely, Tony; van der Deen, Frederieke Sanne; Crane, Julian

2015-11-20

While e-cigarette usage has grown rapidly in New Zealand and around the world, the scientific evidence base regarding the net benefits and risks of these types of products at the population level remains uncertain. The health-based policy experience is also minimal. Here, we analyse plausible future regulatory options for e-cigarettes that the New Zealand Government could explore, and that further research could help clarify. These options include: (1) a full free market (an option we doubt is desirable for multiple reasons); (2) controlled increased access through: (a) pharmacy only, (b) pharmacy only plus sales by prescription/ to licensed vapers; (c) additional controls through non-profit supply/distribution (eg, public hospital pharmacies); (3) increased restrictions compared with current (eg, adopting a complete ban on self-imports and use). In addition, we consider mechanisms to improve product quality and safety, and argue that policy makers should take great care when regulating e-cigarettes, given the scientific uncertainty and the role of commercial vested interests.

Faecal Pathogen Flows and Their Public Health Risks in Urban Environments: A Proposed Approach to Inform Sanitation Planning

PubMed Central

Mills, Freya; Petterson, Susan; Norman, Guy

2018-01-01

Public health benefits are often a key political driver of urban sanitation investment in developing countries, however, pathogen flows are rarely taken systematically into account in sanitation investment choices. While several tools and approaches on sanitation and health risks have recently been developed, this research identified gaps in their ability to predict faecal pathogen flows, to relate exposure risks to the existing sanitation services, and to compare expected impacts of improvements. This paper outlines a conceptual approach that links faecal waste discharge patterns with potential pathogen exposure pathways to quantitatively compare urban sanitation improvement options. An illustrative application of the approach is presented, using a spreadsheet-based model to compare the relative effect on disability-adjusted life years of six sanitation improvement options for a hypothetical urban situation. The approach includes consideration of the persistence or removal of different pathogen classes in different environments; recognition of multiple interconnected sludge and effluent pathways, and of multiple potential sites for exposure; and use of quantitative microbial risk assessment to support prediction of relative health risks for each option. This research provides a step forward in applying current knowledge to better consider public health, alongside environmental and other objectives, in urban sanitation decision making. Further empirical research in specific locations is now required to refine the approach and address data gaps. PMID:29360775

Impact of Facility- and Community-Based Peer Support Models on Maternal Uptake and Retention in Malawi's Option B+ HIV Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission Program: A 3-Arm Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial (PURE Malawi).

PubMed

Phiri, Sam; Tweya, Hannock; van Lettow, Monique; Rosenberg, Nora E; Trapence, Clement; Kapito-Tembo, Atupele; Kaunda-Khangamwa, Blessings; Kasende, Florence; Kayoyo, Virginia; Cataldo, Fabian; Stanley, Christopher; Gugsa, Salem; Sampathkumar, Veena; Schouten, Erik; Chiwaula, Levison; Eliya, Michael; Chimbwandira, Frank; Hosseinipour, Mina C

2017-06-01

Many sub-Saharan African countries have adopted Option B+, a prevention of mother-to-child transmission approach providing HIV-infected pregnant and lactating women with immediate lifelong antiretroviral therapy. High maternal attrition has been observed in Option B+. Peer-based support may improve retention. A 3-arm stratified cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted in Malawi to assess whether facility- and community-based peer support would improve Option B+ uptake and retention compared with standard of care (SOC). In SOC, no enhancements were made (control). In facility-based and community-based models, peers provided patient education, support groups, and patient tracing. Uptake was defined as attending a second scheduled follow-up visit. Retention was defined as being alive and in-care at 2 years without defaulting. Attrition was defined as death, default, or stopping antiretroviral therapy. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate risk differences (RDs) in uptake. Cox proportional hazards regression with shared frailties was used to estimate hazard of attrition. Twenty-one facilities were randomized and enrolled 1269 women: 447, 428, and 394 in facilities that implemented SOC, facility-based, and community-based peer support models, respectively. Mean age was 27 years. Uptake was higher in facility-based (86%; RD: 6%, confidence interval [CI]: -3% to 15%) and community-based (90%; RD: 9%, CI: 1% to 18%) models compared with SOC (81%). At 24 months, retention was higher in facility-based (80%; RD: 13%, CI: 1% to 26%) and community-based (83%; RD: 16%, CI: 3% to 30%) models compared with SOC (66%). Facility- and community-based peer support interventions can benefit maternal uptake and retention in Option B+.

Acupuncture for ankle sprain: systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Ankle sprain is one of the most frequently encountered musculoskeletal injuries; however, the efficacy of acupuncture in treating ankle sprains remains uncertain. We therefore performed a systematic review to evaluate the evidence regarding acupuncture for ankle sprains. Methods We searched 15 data sources and two trial registries up to February 2012. Randomized controlled trials of acupuncture were included if they involved patients with ankle sprains and reported outcomes of symptom improvement, including pain. A Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool was used. Risk ratio (RR) or mean difference (MD) was calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in a random effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed based on acupuncture type, grade of sprain, and control type. Sensitivity analyses were also performed with respect to risk of bias, sample size, and outcomes reported. Results Seventeen trials involving 1820 participants were included. Trial quality was generally poor, with just three reporting adequate methods of randomization and only one a method of allocation concealment. Significantly more participants in acupuncture groups reported global symptom improvement compared with no acupuncture groups (RR of symptoms persisting with acupuncture = 0.56, 95% CI 0.42–0.77). However, this is probably an overestimate due to the heterogeneity (I2 = 51%) and high risk of bias of the included studies. Acupuncture as an add-on treatment also improved global symptoms compared with other treatments only, without significant variability (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.51–0.73, I2 = 1%). The benefit of acupuncture remained significant when the analysis was limited to two studies with a low risk of bias. Acupuncture was more effective than various controls in relieving pain, facilitating return to normal activity, and promoting quality of life, but these analyses were based on only a small number of studies. Acupuncture did not appear to be associated with adverse events. Conclusions Given methodological shortcomings and the small number of high-quality primary studies, the available evidence is insufficient to recommend acupuncture as an evidence-based treatment option. This calls for further rigorous investigations. PMID:23496981

Acupuncture for ankle sprain: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Park, Jimin; Hahn, Seokyung; Park, Ji-Yeun; Park, Hi-Joon; Lee, Hyangsook

2013-03-04

Ankle sprain is one of the most frequently encountered musculoskeletal injuries; however, the efficacy of acupuncture in treating ankle sprains remains uncertain. We therefore performed a systematic review to evaluate the evidence regarding acupuncture for ankle sprains. We searched 15 data sources and two trial registries up to February 2012. Randomized controlled trials of acupuncture were included if they involved patients with ankle sprains and reported outcomes of symptom improvement, including pain. A Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool was used. Risk ratio (RR) or mean difference (MD) was calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in a random effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed based on acupuncture type, grade of sprain, and control type. Sensitivity analyses were also performed with respect to risk of bias, sample size, and outcomes reported. Seventeen trials involving 1820 participants were included. Trial quality was generally poor, with just three reporting adequate methods of randomization and only one a method of allocation concealment. Significantly more participants in acupuncture groups reported global symptom improvement compared with no acupuncture groups (RR of symptoms persisting with acupuncture = 0.56, 95% CI 0.42-0.77). However, this is probably an overestimate due to the heterogeneity (I2 = 51%) and high risk of bias of the included studies. Acupuncture as an add-on treatment also improved global symptoms compared with other treatments only, without significant variability (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.51-0.73, I2 = 1%). The benefit of acupuncture remained significant when the analysis was limited to two studies with a low risk of bias. Acupuncture was more effective than various controls in relieving pain, facilitating return to normal activity, and promoting quality of life, but these analyses were based on only a small number of studies. Acupuncture did not appear to be associated with adverse events. Given methodological shortcomings and the small number of high-quality primary studies, the available evidence is insufficient to recommend acupuncture as an evidence-based treatment option. This calls for further rigorous investigations.

[Education at a distance as a methodological option for the development of continuing education processes for human resources in health].

PubMed

Müller, A K

1987-01-01

It is becoming increasingly essential to put into effect the processes of continuing education that will facilitate continuing access to education, adapt to political changes, technological advances and current situations, and reach all the population to be trained. In so doing, institutions must implement new educational methodologies that reduce costs and extend coverage. One of these methodologies is education at a distance, which is examined in this article. This type of approach uses methods and techniques for individual and team work (studies based on written and audiovisual materials which, along with back-up tutoring and practical equipment and instruments, make up an instructional package) and physical presence activities under direction and supervision; at the same time, it offers the possibility of a study schedule that complements the work day. It also facilitates the continuing education of in-service personnel and encourages to assume greater responsibility for their own instruction with a view to their own overall development and to the attainment of excellence in the performance of services. Education at a distance is an option for the training of manpower committed to the performance of health services, and it must be introduced into current educational programs slowly and by degrees. The Health Training Program for Central America and Panama (PASCAP) is preparing a methodological guide for the design of systems of education at a distance as a frame of reference that must be adapted to the specific characteristics and needs of each country and institution. These stages are, broadly, a conceptual framework and academic planning, academic production, teaching-learning, and evaluation.

Peyronie's disease intervention trials: methodological challenges and issues.

PubMed

Müller, Alexander; Mulhall, John P

2009-03-01

Peyronie's Disease (PD) has been studied for more than 260 years since Francois de la Peyronie's description in 1743. Based on the current literature, the prevalence of PD seems 3-9% with an average age of onset in the fifth life decade. Much effort has been spent on developing nonsurgical treatment options to cure or at least prevent disease progression. The recent examination of drug trials for erectile dysfunction has led us to assess PD trial methodology more closely. An Iinternet search on PubMed was performed using MeSH words PD, clinical trials, oral, transdermal, intralesional and shock wave therapy focusing on 26 representing studies published over the last 15 years. Mean Outcome Measures. A comprehensive review of the current literature on nonsurgical treatment options for PD was conducted to address methodological issues and challenges in PD trials highlighting trial design, patient population, and symptom and sign assessment. The majority of the reviewed studies are underpowered and the heterogeneity in the methodological approach and patient assessment between the studies is one of the remarkable findings from our review. Studies should use a uniform means of defining the degree and type of penile deformity and a large enough cohort of patients should be studied for adequate study power. An ideally designed PD intervention trial should comprise: (i) a randomized, placebo-controlled design; (ii) with a PD patient set representative of the general PD population; and (iii) a comprehensive symptom and sign assessment before and at the end of treatment which includes an assessment of at least deformity, pain, and sexual function. A number of challenges exist for the design of PD intervention trials and deciphering the data generated from them. The field would benefit greatly from a consensus statement or guidelines development on the design and conduct of such trials.

Horizon Missions Methodology - Using new paradigms to overcome conceptual blocks to innovation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, John L.

1993-01-01

The Horizon Mission Methodology was developed to provide a systematic analytical approach for evaluating and identifying technological requirements for breakthrough technology options (BTOs) and for assessing their potential to provide revolutionary capabilities for advanced space missions. Here, attention is given to the further use of the methodology as a new tool for a broader range of studies dealing with technology innovation and new technology paradigms.

Risk management with substitution options: Valuing flexibility in small-scale energy systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Karl Eric

Several features of small-scale energy systems make them more easily adapted to a changing operating environment than large centralized designs. This flexibility is often manifested as the ability to substitute inputs. This research explores the value of this substitution flexibility and the marginal value of becoming a "little more flexible" in the context of real project investment in developing countries. The elasticity of substitution is proposed as a stylized measure of flexibility and a choice variable. A flexible alternative (elasticity > 0) can be thought of as holding a fixed-proportions "nflexible" asset plus a sequence of exchange options---the option to move to another feasible "recipe" each period. Substitutability derives value from following a contour of anticipated variations and from responding to new information. Substitutability value, a "cost savings option", increases with elasticity and price risk. However, the required premium to incrementally increase flexibility can in some cases decrease with an increase in risk. Variance is not always a measure of risk. Tools from stochastic dominance are newly applied to real options with convex payoffs to correct some misperceptions and clarify many common modeling situations that meet the criteria for increased variance to imply increased risk. The behavior of the cost savings option is explored subject to a stochastic input price process. At the point where costs are identical for all alternatives, the stochastic process for cost savings becomes deterministic, with savings directly proportional to elasticity of substitution and price variance. The option is also formulated as a derivative security via dynamic programming. The partial differential equation is solved for the special case of Cobb-Douglas (elasticity = 1) (also shown are linear (infinite elasticity), Leontief (elasticity = 0)). Risk aversion is insufficient to prefer a more flexible alternative with the same expected value. Intertemporal links convert the sequence of independent options to a single compound option and require an expansion of the flexibility concept. Additional options increase the value of the project but generally decrease flexibility value. The framework is applied to case study in India: an urban industry electricity strategy decision with reliability risk.

75 FR 30451 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Order Granting Approval of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-01

... May 14, 2010. The ODD currently contains general disclosures on the characteristics and risks of...-linked securities. Accordingly, the ODD disclosure only covers the characteristics and risks of options...; Order Granting Approval of Accelerated Delivery of Supplement to the Options Disclosure Document...

ART Attrition across Health Facilities Implementing Option B+ in Haiti.

PubMed

Myrtil, Martine Pamphile; Puttkammer, Nancy; Gloyd, Stephen; Robinson, Julia; Yuhas, Krista; Domercant, Jean Wysler; Honoré, Jean Guy; Francois, Kesner

2018-01-01

Describing factors related to high attrition is important in order to improve the implementation of the Option B+ strategy in Haiti. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to describe the variability of antiretroviral therapy (ART) retention across health facilities among pregnant and lactating women and assess for differences in ART retention between Option B+ clients and other ART patients. There were 1989 Option B+ clients who initiated ART in 45 health facilities. The percentage of attrition varied from 9% to 81% across the facilities. The largest health facilities had 38% higher risk of attrition (relative risk [RR]: 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.77, P = .009). Private institutions had 18% less risk of attrition (RR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.70-0.96, P = .020). Health facilities located in the West department and the South region had lower risk of attrition. Being on treatment in a large or public health facility or a facility located in the North region was a significant risk factor associated with high attrition among Option B+ clients. The implementation of the Option B+ strategy must be reevaluated in order to effectively eliminate mother-to-child HIV transmission.

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

PubMed

Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

2012-01-01

In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

Algorithms in the First-Line Treatment of Metastatic Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma--Analysis Using Diagnostic Nodes.

PubMed

Rothermundt, Christian; Bailey, Alexandra; Cerbone, Linda; Eisen, Tim; Escudier, Bernard; Gillessen, Silke; Grünwald, Viktor; Larkin, James; McDermott, David; Oldenburg, Jan; Porta, Camillo; Rini, Brian; Schmidinger, Manuela; Sternberg, Cora; Putora, Paul M

2015-09-01

With the advent of targeted therapies, many treatment options in the first-line setting of metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (mccRCC) have emerged. Guidelines and randomized trial reports usually do not elucidate the decision criteria for the different treatment options. In order to extract the decision criteria for the optimal therapy for patients, we performed an analysis of treatment algorithms from experts in the field. Treatment algorithms for the treatment of mccRCC from experts of 11 institutions were obtained, and decision trees were deduced. Treatment options were identified and a list of unified decision criteria determined. The final decision trees were analyzed with a methodology based on diagnostic nodes, which allows for an automated cross-comparison of decision trees. The most common treatment recommendations were determined, and areas of discordance were identified. The analysis revealed heterogeneity in most clinical scenarios. The recommendations selected for first-line treatment of mccRCC included sunitinib, pazopanib, temsirolimus, interferon-α combined with bevacizumab, high-dose interleukin-2, sorafenib, axitinib, everolimus, and best supportive care. The criteria relevant for treatment decisions were performance status, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center risk group, only or mainly lung metastases, cardiac insufficiency, hepatic insufficiency, age, and "zugzwang" (composite of multiple, related criteria). In the present study, we used diagnostic nodes to compare treatment algorithms in the first-line treatment of mccRCC. The results illustrate the heterogeneity of the decision criteria and treatment strategies for mccRCC and how available data are interpreted and implemented differently among experts. The data provided in the present report should not be considered to serve as treatment recommendations for the management of treatment-naïve patients with multiple metastases from metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma outside a clinical trial; however, the data highlight the different treatment options and the criteria used to select them. The diversity in decision making and how results from phase III trials can be interpreted and implemented differently in daily practice are demonstrated. ©AlphaMed Press.

Risk-based Methodology for Validation of Pharmaceutical Batch Processes.

PubMed

Wiles, Frederick

2013-01-01

In January 2011, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration published new process validation guidance for pharmaceutical processes. The new guidance debunks the long-held industry notion that three consecutive validation batches or runs are all that are required to demonstrate that a process is operating in a validated state. Instead, the new guidance now emphasizes that the level of monitoring and testing performed during process performance qualification (PPQ) studies must be sufficient to demonstrate statistical confidence both within and between batches. In some cases, three qualification runs may not be enough. Nearly two years after the guidance was first published, little has been written defining a statistical methodology for determining the number of samples and qualification runs required to satisfy Stage 2 requirements of the new guidance. This article proposes using a combination of risk assessment, control charting, and capability statistics to define the monitoring and testing scheme required to show that a pharmaceutical batch process is operating in a validated state. In this methodology, an assessment of process risk is performed through application of a process failure mode, effects, and criticality analysis (PFMECA). The output of PFMECA is used to select appropriate levels of statistical confidence and coverage which, in turn, are used in capability calculations to determine when significant Stage 2 (PPQ) milestones have been met. The achievement of Stage 2 milestones signals the release of batches for commercial distribution and the reduction of monitoring and testing to commercial production levels. Individuals, moving range, and range/sigma charts are used in conjunction with capability statistics to demonstrate that the commercial process is operating in a state of statistical control. The new process validation guidance published by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in January of 2011 indicates that the number of process validation batches or runs required to demonstrate that a pharmaceutical process is operating in a validated state should be based on sound statistical principles. The old rule of "three consecutive batches and you're done" is no longer sufficient. The guidance, however, does not provide any specific methodology for determining the number of runs required, and little has been published to augment this shortcoming. The paper titled "Risk-based Methodology for Validation of Pharmaceutical Batch Processes" describes a statistically sound methodology for determining when a statistically valid number of validation runs has been acquired based on risk assessment and calculation of process capability.

Presenting quantitative information about decision outcomes: a risk communication primer for patient decision aid developers.

PubMed

Trevena, Lyndal J; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Edwards, Adrian; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Galesic, Mirta; Han, Paul K J; King, John; Lawson, Margaret L; Linder, Suzanne K; Lipkus, Isaac; Ozanne, Elissa; Peters, Ellen; Timmermans, Danielle; Woloshin, Steven

2013-01-01

Making evidence-based decisions often requires comparison of two or more options. Research-based evidence may exist which quantifies how likely the outcomes are for each option. Understanding these numeric estimates improves patients' risk perception and leads to better informed decision making. This paper summarises current "best practices" in communication of evidence-based numeric outcomes for developers of patient decision aids (PtDAs) and other health communication tools. An expert consensus group of fourteen researchers from North America, Europe, and Australasia identified eleven main issues in risk communication. Two experts for each issue wrote a "state of the art" summary of best evidence, drawing on the PtDA, health, psychological, and broader scientific literature. In addition, commonly used terms were defined and a set of guiding principles and key messages derived from the results. The eleven key components of risk communication were: 1) Presenting the chance an event will occur; 2) Presenting changes in numeric outcomes; 3) Outcome estimates for test and screening decisions; 4) Numeric estimates in context and with evaluative labels; 5) Conveying uncertainty; 6) Visual formats; 7) Tailoring estimates; 8) Formats for understanding outcomes over time; 9) Narrative methods for conveying the chance of an event; 10) Important skills for understanding numerical estimates; and 11) Interactive web-based formats. Guiding principles from the evidence summaries advise that risk communication formats should reflect the task required of the user, should always define a relevant reference class (i.e., denominator) over time, should aim to use a consistent format throughout documents, should avoid "1 in x" formats and variable denominators, consider the magnitude of numbers used and the possibility of format bias, and should take into account the numeracy and graph literacy of the audience. A substantial and rapidly expanding evidence base exists for risk communication. Developers of tools to facilitate evidence-based decision making should apply these principles to improve the quality of risk communication in practice.

Presenting quantitative information about decision outcomes: a risk communication primer for patient decision aid developers

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Making evidence-based decisions often requires comparison of two or more options. Research-based evidence may exist which quantifies how likely the outcomes are for each option. Understanding these numeric estimates improves patients’ risk perception and leads to better informed decision making. This paper summarises current “best practices” in communication of evidence-based numeric outcomes for developers of patient decision aids (PtDAs) and other health communication tools. Method An expert consensus group of fourteen researchers from North America, Europe, and Australasia identified eleven main issues in risk communication. Two experts for each issue wrote a “state of the art” summary of best evidence, drawing on the PtDA, health, psychological, and broader scientific literature. In addition, commonly used terms were defined and a set of guiding principles and key messages derived from the results. Results The eleven key components of risk communication were: 1) Presenting the chance an event will occur; 2) Presenting changes in numeric outcomes; 3) Outcome estimates for test and screening decisions; 4) Numeric estimates in context and with evaluative labels; 5) Conveying uncertainty; 6) Visual formats; 7) Tailoring estimates; 8) Formats for understanding outcomes over time; 9) Narrative methods for conveying the chance of an event; 10) Important skills for understanding numerical estimates; and 11) Interactive web-based formats. Guiding principles from the evidence summaries advise that risk communication formats should reflect the task required of the user, should always define a relevant reference class (i.e., denominator) over time, should aim to use a consistent format throughout documents, should avoid “1 in x” formats and variable denominators, consider the magnitude of numbers used and the possibility of format bias, and should take into account the numeracy and graph literacy of the audience. Conclusion A substantial and rapidly expanding evidence base exists for risk communication. Developers of tools to facilitate evidence-based decision making should apply these principles to improve the quality of risk communication in practice. PMID:24625237

Economic feasibility study for new technological alternatives in wastewater treatment processes: a review.

PubMed

Molinos-Senante, María; Hernández-Sancho, Francesc; Sala-Garrido, Ramón

2012-01-01

The concept of sustainability involves the integration of economic, environmental, and social aspects and this also applies in the field of wastewater treatment. Economic feasibility studies are a key tool for selecting the most appropriate option from a set of technological proposals. Moreover, these studies are needed to assess the viability of transferring new technologies from pilot-scale to full-scale. In traditional economic feasibility studies, the benefits that have no market price, such as environmental benefits, are not considered and are therefore underestimated. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new methodology to assess the economic viability of wastewater treatment technologies that considers internal and external impacts. The estimation of the costs is based on the use of cost functions. To quantify the environmental benefits from wastewater treatment, the distance function methodology is proposed to estimate the shadow price of each pollutant removed in the wastewater treatment. The application of this methodological approach by decision makers enables the calculation of the true costs and benefits associated with each alternative technology. The proposed methodology is presented as a useful tool to support decision making.

Risk assessment tools to identify women with increased risk of osteoporotic fracture: complexity or simplicity? A systematic review.

PubMed

Rubin, Katrine Hass; Friis-Holmberg, Teresa; Hermann, Anne Pernille; Abrahamsen, Bo; Brixen, Kim

2013-08-01

A huge number of risk assessment tools have been developed. Far from all have been validated in external studies, more of them have absence of methodological and transparent evidence, and few are integrated in national guidelines. Therefore, we performed a systematic review to provide an overview of existing valid and reliable risk assessment tools for prediction of osteoporotic fractures. Additionally, we aimed to determine if the performance of each tool was sufficient for practical use, and last, to examine whether the complexity of the tools influenced their discriminative power. We searched PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases for papers and evaluated these with respect to methodological quality using the Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) checklist. A total of 48 tools were identified; 20 had been externally validated, however, only six tools had been tested more than once in a population-based setting with acceptable methodological quality. None of the tools performed consistently better than the others and simple tools (i.e., the Osteoporosis Self-assessment Tool [OST], Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument [ORAI], and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator [Garvan]) often did as well or better than more complex tools (i.e., Simple Calculated Risk Estimation Score [SCORE], WHO Fracture Risk Assessment Tool [FRAX], and Qfracture). No studies determined the effectiveness of tools in selecting patients for therapy and thus improving fracture outcomes. High-quality studies in randomized design with population-based cohorts with different case mixes are needed. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

The physical vulnerability of elements at risk: a methodology based on fluid and classical mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzorana, B.; Fuchs, S.; Levaggi, L.

2012-04-01

The impacts of the flood events occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision makers to enhance in synergy flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of both, the immobile and mobile elements at risk potentially exposed to flood hazards. Based on fluid and classical mechanics notions we developed computation schemes enabling for a dynamic vulnerability and risk analysis facing a broad typological variety of elements at risk. The methodological skeleton consists of (1) hydrodynamic computation of the time-varying flood intensities resulting for each element at risk in a succession of loading configurations; (2) modelling the mechanical response of the impacted elements through static, elasto-static and dynamic analyses; (3) characterising the mechanical response through proper structural damage variables and (4) economic valuation of the expected losses as a function of the quantified damage variables. From a computational perspective we coupled the description of the hydrodynamic flow behaviour and the induced structural modifications of the elements at risk exposed. Valuation methods, suitable to support a correct mapping from the value domains of the physical damage variables to the economic loss values are discussed. In such a way we target to complement from a methodological perspective the existing, mainly empirical, vulnerability and risk assessment approaches to refine the conceptual framework of the cost-benefit analysis. Moreover, we aim to support the design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies by diminishing the main criticalities within the systems prone to flood risk.

Successful osimertinib rechallenge after osimertinib-induced pneumonitis in a patient with lung adenocarcinoma.

PubMed

Satoh, Shingo; Shiroyama, Takayuki; Tamiya, Motohiro; Nasu, Shingo; Tanaka, Ayako; Morita, Satomu; Morishita, Naoko; Suzuki, Hidekazu; Okamoto, Norio; Hirashima, Tomonori

2018-01-01

Pneumonitis is a serious adverse event of EGFR-TKI treatment. Although several cases of EGFR-TKI rechallenge after EGFR-TKI-induced pneumonitis have been reported, little is known about post-pneumonitis osimertinib rechallenge. We describe a 69-year-old never-smoking Japanese woman with postoperative recurrent lung adenocarcinoma retreated with osimertinib after osimertinib-induced pneumonitis. Although osimertinib rechallenge must be carefully chosen based on risk/benefit analysis, osimertinib rechallenge after osimertinib-induced pneumonitis may be an option, with limited alternative therapeutic options.

Risk-based maintenance of ethylene oxide production facilities.

PubMed

Khan, Faisal I; Haddara, Mahmoud R

2004-05-20

This paper discusses a methodology for the design of an optimum inspection and maintenance program. The methodology, called risk-based maintenance (RBM) is based on integrating a reliability approach and a risk assessment strategy to obtain an optimum maintenance schedule. First, the likely equipment failure scenarios are formulated. Out of many likely failure scenarios, the ones, which are most probable, are subjected to a detailed study. Detailed consequence analysis is done for the selected scenarios. Subsequently, these failure scenarios are subjected to a fault tree analysis to determine their probabilities. Finally, risk is computed by combining the results of the consequence and the probability analyses. The calculated risk is compared against known acceptable criteria. The frequencies of the maintenance tasks are obtained by minimizing the estimated risk. A case study involving an ethylene oxide production facility is presented. Out of the five most hazardous units considered, the pipeline used for the transportation of the ethylene is found to have the highest risk. Using available failure data and a lognormal reliability distribution function human health risk factors are calculated. Both societal risk factors and individual risk factors exceeded the acceptable risk criteria. To determine an optimal maintenance interval, a reverse fault tree analysis was used. The maintenance interval was determined such that the original high risk is brought down to an acceptable level. A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken to study the impact of changing the distribution of the reliability model as well as the error in the distribution parameters on the maintenance interval.

Descriptive Analysis and Strategic Options to Defeat Commodity-Based Threat Financing Methodologies Related to Gold

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

continue to occur in the Peruvian Andes and the low-lying Amazon basin in the environmentally sensitive and protected region of Madre de Dios . In 2013...PwC stated, “six mining companies and the small producers of the region of Madre de Dios concentrate 62% of [gold] production (PwC, 2013b, p. 16...illegal mining operations occur throughout Madre de Dios without attempts at formalization. In Madre de Dios , forests are clear cut of vegetation

Neuroblastoma Treatment (PDQ®)—Health Professional Version

Cancer.gov

Neuroblastoma treatment generally is based on whether the tumor is low, intermediate, or high risk. Treatment options include surgery, observation, radiation therapy, chemotherapy, stem cell rescue, and targeted therapy. Get detailed neuroblastoma treatment information in this summary for clinicians.

Multi-stage methodology to detect health insurance claim fraud.

PubMed

Johnson, Marina Evrim; Nagarur, Nagen

2016-09-01

Healthcare costs in the US, as well as in other countries, increase rapidly due to demographic, economic, social, and legal changes. This increase in healthcare costs impacts both government and private health insurance systems. Fraudulent behaviors of healthcare providers and patients have become a serious burden to insurance systems by bringing unnecessary costs. Insurance companies thus develop methods to identify fraud. This paper proposes a new multistage methodology for insurance companies to detect fraud committed by providers and patients. The first three stages aim at detecting abnormalities among providers, services, and claim amounts. Stage four then integrates the information obtained in the previous three stages into an overall risk measure. Subsequently, a decision tree based method in stage five computes risk threshold values. The final decision stating whether the claim is fraudulent is made by comparing the risk value obtained in stage four with the risk threshold value from stage five. The research methodology performs well on real-world insurance data.

Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping using GIS, modeling and a fuzzy logic tool.

PubMed

Nobre, R C M; Rotunno Filho, O C; Mansur, W J; Nobre, M M M; Cosenza, C A N

2007-12-07

A groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping assessment, based on a source-pathway-receptor approach, is presented for an urban coastal aquifer in northeastern Brazil. A modified version of the DRASTIC methodology was used to map the intrinsic and specific groundwater vulnerability of a 292 km(2) study area. A fuzzy hierarchy methodology was adopted to evaluate the potential contaminant source index, including diffuse and point sources. Numerical modeling was performed for delineation of well capture zones, using MODFLOW and MODPATH. The integration of these elements provided the mechanism to assess groundwater pollution risks and identify areas that must be prioritized in terms of groundwater monitoring and restriction on use. A groundwater quality index based on nitrate and chloride concentrations was calculated, which had a positive correlation with the specific vulnerability index.

Knowledge-based decision support for Space Station assembly sequence planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1991-04-01

A complete Personal Analysis Assistant (PAA) for Space Station Freedom (SSF) assembly sequence planning consists of three software components: the system infrastructure, intra-flight value added, and inter-flight value added. The system infrastructure is the substrate on which software elements providing inter-flight and intra-flight value-added functionality are built. It provides the capability for building representations of assembly sequence plans and specification of constraints and analysis options. Intra-flight value-added provides functionality that will, given the manifest for each flight, define cargo elements, place them in the National Space Transportation System (NSTS) cargo bay, compute performance measure values, and identify violated constraints. Inter-flight value-added provides functionality that will, given major milestone dates and capability requirements, determine the number and dates of required flights and develop a manifest for each flight. The current project is Phase 1 of a projected two phase program and delivers the system infrastructure. Intra- and inter-flight value-added were to be developed in Phase 2, which has not been funded. Based on experience derived from hundreds of projects conducted over the past seven years, ISX developed an Intelligent Systems Engineering (ISE) methodology that combines the methods of systems engineering and knowledge engineering to meet the special systems development requirements posed by intelligent systems, systems that blend artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies with more conventional computing technologies. The ISE methodology defines a phased program process that begins with an application assessment designed to provide a preliminary determination of the relative technical risks and payoffs associated with a potential application, and then moves through requirements analysis, system design, and development.

Knowledge-based decision support for Space Station assembly sequence planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

A complete Personal Analysis Assistant (PAA) for Space Station Freedom (SSF) assembly sequence planning consists of three software components: the system infrastructure, intra-flight value added, and inter-flight value added. The system infrastructure is the substrate on which software elements providing inter-flight and intra-flight value-added functionality are built. It provides the capability for building representations of assembly sequence plans and specification of constraints and analysis options. Intra-flight value-added provides functionality that will, given the manifest for each flight, define cargo elements, place them in the National Space Transportation System (NSTS) cargo bay, compute performance measure values, and identify violated constraints. Inter-flight value-added provides functionality that will, given major milestone dates and capability requirements, determine the number and dates of required flights and develop a manifest for each flight. The current project is Phase 1 of a projected two phase program and delivers the system infrastructure. Intra- and inter-flight value-added were to be developed in Phase 2, which has not been funded. Based on experience derived from hundreds of projects conducted over the past seven years, ISX developed an Intelligent Systems Engineering (ISE) methodology that combines the methods of systems engineering and knowledge engineering to meet the special systems development requirements posed by intelligent systems, systems that blend artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies with more conventional computing technologies. The ISE methodology defines a phased program process that begins with an application assessment designed to provide a preliminary determination of the relative technical risks and payoffs associated with a potential application, and then moves through requirements analysis, system design, and development.

Methodology for Evaluating an Adaptation of Evidence-Based Drug Abuse Prevention in Alternative Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hopson, Laura M.; Steiker, Lori K. H.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this article is to set forth an innovative methodological protocol for culturally grounding interventions with high-risk youths in alternative schools. This study used mixed methods to evaluate original and adapted versions of a culturally grounded substance abuse prevention program. The qualitative and quantitative methods…

Considering the cumulative risk of mixtures of chemicals – A challenge for policy makers

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The current paradigm for the assessment of the health risk of chemical substances focuses primarily on the effects of individual substances for determining the doses of toxicological concern in order to inform appropriately the regulatory process. These policy instruments place varying requirements on health and safety data of chemicals in the environment. REACH focuses on safety of individual substances; yet all the other facets of public health policy that relate to chemical stressors put emphasis on the effects of combined exposure to mixtures of chemical and physical agents. This emphasis brings about methodological problems linked to the complexity of the respective exposure pathways; the effect (more complex than simple additivity) of mixtures (the so-called 'cocktail effect'); dose extrapolation, i.e. the extrapolation of the validity of dose-response data to dose ranges that extend beyond the levels used for the derivation of the original dose-response relationship; the integrated use of toxicity data across species (including human clinical, epidemiological and biomonitoring data); and variation in inter-individual susceptibility associated with both genetic and environmental factors. Methods In this paper we give an overview of the main methodologies available today to estimate the human health risk of environmental chemical mixtures, ranging from dose addition to independent action, and from ignoring interactions among the mixture constituents to modelling their biological fate taking into account the biochemical interactions affecting both internal exposure and the toxic potency of the mixture. Results We discuss their applicability, possible options available to policy makers and the difficulties and potential pitfalls in implementing these methodologies in the frame of the currently existing policy framework in the European Union. Finally, we suggest a pragmatic solution for policy/regulatory action that would facilitate the evaluation of the health effects of chemical mixtures in the environment and consumer products. Conclusions One universally applicable methodology does not yet exist. Therefore, a pragmatic, tiered approach to regulatory risk assessment of chemical mixtures is suggested, encompassing (a) the use of dose addition to calculate a hazard index that takes into account interactions among mixture components; and (b) the use of the connectivity approach in data-rich situations to integrate mechanistic knowledge at different scales of biological organization. PMID:22759500

Options and Risk for Qualification of Electric Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, Michelle; Daniel, Charles; Cook, Steve (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Electric propulsion vehicle systems envelop a wide range of propulsion alternatives including solar and nuclear, which present unique circumstances for qualification. This paper will address the alternatives for qualification of electric propulsion spacecraft systems. The approach taken will be to address the considerations for qualification at the various levels of systems definition. Additionally, for each level of qualification the system level risk implications will be developed. Also, the paper will explore the implications of analysis verses test for various levels of systems definition, while retaining the objectives of a verification program. The limitations of terrestrial testing will be explored along with the risk and implications of orbital demonstration testing. The paper will seek to develop a template for structuring of a verification program based on cost, risk and value return. A successful verification program should establish controls and define objectives of the verification compliance program. Finally the paper will seek to address the political and programmatic factors, which may impact options for system verification.

Report of the eRHIC Ring-Ring Working Group

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aschenauer, E. C.; Berg, S.; Blaskiewicz, M.

2015-10-13

This report evaluates the ring-ring option for eRHIC as a lower risk alternative to the linac-ring option. The reduced risk goes along with a reduced initial luminosity performance. However, a luminosity upgrade path is kept open. This upgrade path consists of two branches, with the ultimate upgrade being either a ring-ring or a linac-ring scheme. The linac-ring upgrade could be almost identical to the proposed linac-ring scheme, which is based on an ERL in the RHIC tunnel. This linac-ring version has been studied in great detail over the past ten years, and its significant risks are known. On the othermore » hand, no detailed work on an ultimate performance ring-ring scenario has been performed yet, other than the development of a consistent parameter set. Pursuing the ring-ring upgrade path introduces high risks and requires significant design work that is beyond the scope of this report.« less

iTunes song-gifting is a low-cost, efficient recruitment tool to engage high-risk MSM in internet research.

PubMed

Holland, Christine M; Ritchie, Natalie D; Du Bois, Steve N

2015-10-01

This brief report describes methodology and results of a novel, efficient, and low-cost recruitment tool to engage high-risk MSM in online research. We developed an incentivization protocol using iTunes song-gifting to encourage participation of high-risk MSM in an Internet-based survey of HIV status, childhood sexual abuse, and adult behavior and functioning. Our recruitment methodology yielded 489 participants in 4.5 months at a total incentive cost of $1.43USD per participant. The sample comprised a critically high-risk group of MSM, including 71.0 % who reported recent condomless anal intercourse. We offer a "how-to" guide to aid future investigators in using iTunes song-gifting incentives.

Suicide Risk Assessment Training for Psychology Doctoral Programs: Core Competencies and a Framework for Training

PubMed Central

Cramer, Robert J.; Johnson, Shara M.; McLaughlin, Jennifer; Rausch, Emilie M.; Conroy, Mary Alice

2014-01-01

Clinical and counseling psychology programs currently lack adequate evidence-based competency goals and training in suicide risk assessment. To begin to address this problem, this article proposes core competencies and an integrated training framework that can form the basis for training and research in this area. First, we evaluate the extent to which current training is effective in preparing trainees for suicide risk assessment. Within this discussion, sample and methodological issues are reviewed. Second, as an extension of these methodological training issues, we integrate empirically- and expert-derived suicide risk assessment competencies from several sources with the goal of streamlining core competencies for training purposes. Finally, a framework for suicide risk assessment training is outlined. The approach employs Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) methodology, an approach commonly utilized in medical competency training. The training modality also proposes the Suicide Competency Assessment Form (SCAF), a training tool evaluating self- and observer-ratings of trainee core competencies. The training framework and SCAF are ripe for empirical evaluation and potential training implementation. PMID:24672588

Suicide Risk Assessment Training for Psychology Doctoral Programs: Core Competencies and a Framework for Training.

PubMed

Cramer, Robert J; Johnson, Shara M; McLaughlin, Jennifer; Rausch, Emilie M; Conroy, Mary Alice

2013-02-01

Clinical and counseling psychology programs currently lack adequate evidence-based competency goals and training in suicide risk assessment. To begin to address this problem, this article proposes core competencies and an integrated training framework that can form the basis for training and research in this area. First, we evaluate the extent to which current training is effective in preparing trainees for suicide risk assessment. Within this discussion, sample and methodological issues are reviewed. Second, as an extension of these methodological training issues, we integrate empirically- and expert-derived suicide risk assessment competencies from several sources with the goal of streamlining core competencies for training purposes. Finally, a framework for suicide risk assessment training is outlined. The approach employs Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) methodology, an approach commonly utilized in medical competency training. The training modality also proposes the Suicide Competency Assessment Form (SCAF), a training tool evaluating self- and observer-ratings of trainee core competencies. The training framework and SCAF are ripe for empirical evaluation and potential training implementation.

Medical and Psychosocial Aspects of Fertility After Cancer

PubMed Central

Duffy, Christine; Allen, Susan

2009-01-01

Survival for cancer has improved significantly in the last 25 years with excellent overall 5-year and 10-year survival rates. Hence, the majority of young women diagnosed with cancer can expect to live for decades, making quality of life issues such as fertility increasingly important. Risks of infertility vary based on the chemotherapy and treatments employed, as well as a woman’s age. In general, younger women are less likely to experience permanent amenorrhea than older women, but even women who continue to menstruate have a greatly increased risk of premature menopause. Options for cancer patients entering chemotherapy treatment who wish to preserve fertility range from clinically well-established techniques such as embryo cryopreservation to more experimental techniques such as ovarian tissue cryopreservation. Pregnancy does not appear to increase the risk of cancer recurrence. Discussion of fertility issues in premenopausal women diagnosed with cancer present important challenges to the provider and to the patient. However, failure to discuss these options adequately can have lasting negative consequences on a woman’s quality of life. Physician education interventions should seek to improve the knowledge of fertility preservations options, and of locally and nationally available resources. PMID:19197170

Management of statin-intolerant high-risk patients.

PubMed

Tziomalos, Konstantinos; Athyros, Vasilios G; Karagiannis, Asterios; Mikhailidis, Dimitri P

2010-09-01

Statins are an essential part of the management of patients at high vascular risk and are generally well-tolerated. However, statin intolerance will be observed more frequently as more stringent low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) targets are pursued in an ever increasing number of patients. We review the management options for high-risk patients intolerant to statin treatment. Potential strategies include switching to a different statin, reducing the frequency of statin administration, substituting statins with other LDL-C-lowering agents (e.g. ezetimibe, colesevelam or nicotinic acid) and combining low-dose statin treatment with other lipid-modifying drugs. A limited number of studies specifically assessed statin-intolerant patients and most were small and of short duration. It is therefore difficult to make evidence-based recommendations for the management of this population. In addition, all treatment options have limitations in terms of safety and/or efficacy.

77 FR 75243 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Options Clearing Corporation; Order Approving Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-19

... modeling and risk management procedures (``Risk Management Proposal'') \\9\\ is approved by the Commission.... The enhancements are part of OCC's ongoing efforts to test and improve its risk management operations... Index Options,\\12\\ and only subject to the filing and approval of the Risk Management Proposal, as...

The impact of precommitment on risk-taking while gambling: A preliminary study

PubMed Central

Brevers, Damien; Noel, Xavier; Clark, Luke; Zyuzin, Jekaterina; Justin park, Joohwan; Bechara, Antoine

2016-01-01

Background and aims Precommitment refers to the ability to prospectively restrict the access to temptations. This study examined whether risk-taking during gambling is decreased when an individual has the opportunity to precommit to his forthcoming bet. Methods Sixty individuals participated in a gambling task that consisted of direct choice (simply chose one monetary option among four available ones, ranging from low-risk to high-risk options) or precommitment trials (before choosing an amount, participants had the opportunity to make a binding choice that made high-risk options unavailable). Results We found that participants utilized the precommitment option, such that risk-taking was decreased on precommitment trials compared to direct choices. Within the precommitment trials, there was no significant difference in risk-taking following decisions to restrict versus non-restrict. Discussion These findings suggest that the opportunity to precommit may be sufficient to reduce the attractiveness of risk. Conclusions Present results might be exploited to create interventions aiming at enhancing one’s ability to anticipate self-control failures while gambling. PMID:28092193

A methodology for the assessment of flood hazards at the regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Semenzin, Elena; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

In recent years, the frequency of water-related disasters has increased and recent flood events in Europe (e.g. 2002 in Central Europe, 2007 in UK, 2010 in Italy) caused physical-environmental and socio-economic damages. Specifically, floods are the most threatening water-related disaster that affects humans, their lives and properties. Within the KULTURisk project (FP7) a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology is proposed to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The method is based on the KULTURisk framework and allows the identification and prioritization of targets (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritages) and areas at risk from floods in the considered region by comparing the baseline scenario (i.e. current state) with alternative scenarios (i.e. where different structural and/or non-structural measures are planned). The RRA methodology is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The final aim of RRA is to help decision-makers in examining the possible environmental risks associated with uncertain future flood hazards and in identifying which prevention scenario could be the most suitable one. The RRA methodology employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA functions) in order to integrate stakeholder preferences and experts judgments into the analysis. Moreover, Geographic Information Systems (GISs) are used to manage, process, analyze, and map data to facilitate the analysis and the information sharing with different experts and stakeholders. In order to characterize flood risks, the proposed methodology integrates the output of hydrodynamic models with the analysis of site-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope of the territory, land cover, population density, economic activities) of several case studies in order to develop risk maps that identify and prioritize relative hot-spot areas and targets at risk at the regional scale. The main outputs of the RRA are receptor-based maps of risks useful to communicate the potential implications of floods in non-monetary terms to stakeholders and administrations. These maps can be a basis for the management of flood risks as they can provide information about the indicative number of inhabitants, the type of economic activities, natural systems and cultural heritages potentially affected by flooding. Moreover, they can provide suitable information about flood risk in the considered area in order to define priorities for prevention measures, for land use planning and management. Finally, the outputs of the RRA methodology can be used as data input in the Socio- Economic Regional Risk Assessment methodology for the economic evaluation of different damages (e.g. tangible costs, intangible costs) and for the social assessment considering the benefits of the human dimension of vulnerability (i.e. adaptive and coping capacity). Within the KULTURisk project, the methodology has been applied and validated in several European case studies. Moreover, its generalization to address other types of natural hazards (e.g. earthquakes, forest fires) will be evaluated. The preliminary results of the RRA application in the KULTURisk project will be here presented and discussed.

Risk-Based Object Oriented Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenberg, Linda H.; Stapko, Ruth; Gallo, Albert

2000-01-01

Software testing is a well-defined phase of the software development life cycle. Functional ("black box") testing and structural ("white box") testing are two methods of test case design commonly used by software developers. A lesser known testing method is risk-based testing, which takes into account the probability of failure of a portion of code as determined by its complexity. For object oriented programs, a methodology is proposed for identification of risk-prone classes. Risk-based testing is a highly effective testing technique that can be used to find and fix the most important problems as quickly as possible.

Measuring the subjective value of risky and ambiguous options using experimental economics and functional MRI methods.

PubMed

Levy, Ifat; Rosenberg Belmaker, Lior; Manson, Kirk; Tymula, Agnieszka; Glimcher, Paul W

2012-09-19

Most of the choices we make have uncertain consequences. In some cases the probabilities for different possible outcomes are precisely known, a condition termed "risky". In other cases when probabilities cannot be estimated, this is a condition described as "ambiguous". While most people are averse to both risk and ambiguity(1,2), the degree of those aversions vary substantially across individuals, such that the subjective value of the same risky or ambiguous option can be very different for different individuals. We combine functional MRI (fMRI) with an experimental economics-based method(3 )to assess the neural representation of the subjective values of risky and ambiguous options(4). This technique can be now used to study these neural representations in different populations, such as different age groups and different patient populations. In our experiment, subjects make consequential choices between two alternatives while their neural activation is tracked using fMRI. On each trial subjects choose between lotteries that vary in their monetary amount and in either the probability of winning that amount or the ambiguity level associated with winning. Our parametric design allows us to use each individual's choice behavior to estimate their attitudes towards risk and ambiguity, and thus to estimate the subjective values that each option held for them. Another important feature of the design is that the outcome of the chosen lottery is not revealed during the experiment, so that no learning can take place, and thus the ambiguous options remain ambiguous and risk attitudes are stable. Instead, at the end of the scanning session one or few trials are randomly selected and played for real money. Since subjects do not know beforehand which trials will be selected, they must treat each and every trial as if it and it alone was the one trial on which they will be paid. This design ensures that we can estimate the true subjective value of each option to each subject. We then look for areas in the brain whose activation is correlated with the subjective value of risky options and for areas whose activation is correlated with the subjective value of ambiguous options.

Development of GIS-based Wind Potential Map of Makkah Province, Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nayyar, Z. A.; Zaigham, N. A.; Aburizaiza, O. S.; Mahar, G. A.; Eusufi, S. N.

2011-12-01

Global energy scenario is changing drastically toward decline, as new major discoveries of fossil fuel are not coming up significantly on regional basis. In case of Saudi Arabia, one of the largest fossil fuel producers, the major oil fields have started exhausting significantly as revealed from the literature research study. Considering the future energy crisis, different other renewable options presently have became imperative to be consider anticipating for the national development. Wind energy in one of them. The development of wind energy technology requires the baseline data relevant to the wind trends and their potentials. Under the present study, an attempt has been made to develop wind power density map of the Makkah Province of Saudi Arabia based on the meteorological data collected at different sparsely located weather stations. GIS application has provided a good option to interpolate the gap areas between the sparsely located weather recording stations. This paper describe the methodology and results of the present study.

Balancing benefit and risk of medicines: a systematic review and classification of available methodologies.

PubMed

Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Hallgreen, Christine E; Wang, Nan; Callréus, Torbjörn; Genov, Georgy; Hirsch, Ian; Hobbiger, Stephen F; Hockley, Kimberley S; Luciani, Davide; Phillips, Lawrence D; Quartey, George; Sarac, Sinan B; Stoeckert, Isabelle; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Micaleff, Alain; Ashby, Deborah

2014-07-01

The need for formal and structured approaches for benefit-risk assessment of medicines is increasing, as is the complexity of the scientific questions addressed before making decisions on the benefit-risk balance of medicines. We systematically collected, appraised and classified available benefit-risk methodologies to facilitate and inform their future use. A systematic review of publications identified benefit-risk assessment methodologies. Methodologies were appraised on their fundamental principles, features, graphical representations, assessability and accessibility. We created a taxonomy of methodologies to facilitate understanding and choice. We identified 49 methodologies, critically appraised and classified them into four categories: frameworks, metrics, estimation techniques and utility survey techniques. Eight frameworks describe qualitative steps in benefit-risk assessment and eight quantify benefit-risk balance. Nine metric indices include threshold indices to measure either benefit or risk; health indices measure quality-of-life over time; and trade-off indices integrate benefits and risks. Six estimation techniques support benefit-risk modelling and evidence synthesis. Four utility survey techniques elicit robust value preferences from relevant stakeholders to the benefit-risk decisions. Methodologies to help benefit-risk assessments of medicines are diverse and each is associated with different limitations and strengths. There is not a 'one-size-fits-all' method, and a combination of methods may be needed for each benefit-risk assessment. The taxonomy introduced herein may guide choice of adequate methodologies. Finally, we recommend 13 of 49 methodologies for further appraisal for use in the real-life benefit-risk assessment of medicines. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Metabolic State Alters Economic Decision Making under Risk in Humans

PubMed Central

Drew, Megan E.; Batterham, Rachel L.; Dolan, Raymond J.

2010-01-01

Background Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores). Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable) food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry), and safe (less variable) food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regions strongly implicated in risk and reward based decision-making in humans. Despite this, physiological influences per se have not been considered previously to influence economic decisions in humans. We hypothesised that baseline metabolic reserves and alterations in metabolic state would systematically modulate decision-making and financial risk-taking in humans. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a controlled feeding manipulation and assayed decision-making preferences across different metabolic states following a meal. To elicit risk-preference, we presented a sequence of 200 paired lotteries, subjects' task being to select their preferred option from each pair. We also measured prandial suppression of circulating acyl-ghrelin (a centrally-acting orexigenic hormone signalling acute nutrient intake), and circulating leptin levels (providing an assay of energy reserves). We show both immediate and delayed effects on risky decision-making following a meal, and that these changes correlate with an individual's baseline leptin and changes in acyl-ghrelin levels respectively. Conclusions/Significance We show that human risk preferences are exquisitely sensitive to current metabolic state, in a direction consistent with ecological models of feeding behaviour but not predicted by normative economic theory. These substantive effects of state changes on economic decisions perhaps reflect shared evolutionarily conserved neurobiological mechanisms. We suggest that this sensitivity in human risk-preference to current metabolic state has significant implications for both real-world economic transactions and for aberrant decision-making in eating disorders and obesity. PMID:20585383

Auxiliary feedwater system risk-based inspection guide for the Salem Nuclear Power Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pugh, R.; Gore, B.F. Vo, T.V.

In a study by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest Laboratory has developed and applied a methodology for deriving plant-specific risk-based inspection guidance for the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system at pressurized water reactors that have not undergone probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This methodology uses existing PRA results and plant operating experience information. Existing PRA-based inspection guidance information recently developed for the NRC for various plants was used to identify generic component failure modes. This information was then combined with plant-specific and industry-wide component information and failure data to identify failure modes and failure mechanisms for the AFW systemmore » at the selected plants. Salem was selected as the fifth plant for study. The product of this effort is a prioritized listing of AFW failures which have occurred at the plant and at other PWRs. This listing is intended for use by NRC inspectors in the preparation of inspection plans addressing AFW risk-important components at the Salem plant. 23 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.« less

Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process multicriteria and Geographical information system for coastal vulnerability analysis in Morocco: The case of Mohammedia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahri, Meryem; Maanan, Mohamed; Hakdaoui, Mustapha

2016-04-01

This paper shows a method to assess the vulnerability of coastal risks such as coastal erosion or submarine applying Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and spatial analysis techniques with Geographic Information System (GIS). The coast of the Mohammedia located in Morocco was chosen as the study site to implement and validate the proposed framework by applying a GIS-FAHP based methodology. The coastal risk vulnerability mapping follows multi-parametric causative factors as sea level rise, significant wave height, tidal range, coastal erosion, elevation, geomorphology and distance to an urban area. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology enables the calculation of corresponding criteria weights. The result shows that the coastline of the Mohammedia is characterized by a moderate, high and very high level of vulnerability to coastal risk. The high vulnerability areas are situated in the east at Monika and Sablette beaches. This technical approach is based on the efficiency of the Geographic Information System tool based on Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process to help decision maker to find optimal strategies to minimize coastal risks.

Designing Evaluations. 2012 Revision. Applied Research and Methods. GAO-12-208G

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Government Accountability Office, 2012

2012-01-01

GAO assists congressional decision makers in their deliberations by furnishing them with analytical information on issues and options. Many diverse methodologies are needed to develop sound and timely answers to the questions the Congress asks. To provide GAO evaluators with basic information about the more commonly used methodologies, GAO's…

The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 1: Physical-environmental assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronco, P.; Gallina, V.; Torresan, S.; Zabeo, A.; Semenzin, E.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

2014-07-01

In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazard has increased and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing as a consequence of many factors, both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (increase elements potentially at risk in floodplains area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural, and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the strong effect of climate change is projected to radically modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events both at local, regional and global scale. Within this context, it becomes urgent and dramatically relevant the need of promoting and developing effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow to assess and (possibly) to reduce the flood risks that threats different relevant receptors. Several methodologies to assess the risk posed by water-related natural hazards have been proposed so far, but very few of them can be adopted to implement the last European Flood Directive (FD). The present study is intended to introduce and present a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The methodology, developed within the recently phased out FP7-KULTURisk Project (Knowledge-based approach to develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention - KR) is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The FD compliant KR-RRA methodology is based on the concept of risk being function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It integrates the outputs of various hydrodynamics models (hazard) with sito-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope, land cover, population density, economic activities) to develop tailored risk indexes and GIS-based maps for each of the selected targets (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritages) in the considered region, by comparing the baseline scenario with alternative scenarios, where different structural and/or non-structural mitigation measures are planned. As demonstrated in the companion paper (Part 2, Ronco et al., 2014), risk maps, along with related statistics, allow to identify and prioritize relative hotspots and targets which are more likely to be affected by flood and support the development of relevant and strategic adaptation and prevention measures to minimizing flood impacts. Moreover, the outputs of the RRA methodology can be used for the economic evaluation of different damages (e.g. tangible costs, intangible costs) and for the social assessment considering the benefits of the human dimension of vulnerability (i.e. adaptive and coping capacity).

Social modulation of risky decision-making in rats (Rattus norvegicus) and tufted capuchin monkeys (Sapajus spp.).

PubMed

Zoratto, F; Oddi, G; Gori, E; Micucci, A; De Petrillo, F; Paglieri, F; Adriani, W; Laviola, G; Addessi, E

2018-02-24

Both human and non-human animals frequently deal with risky decisions in a social environment. Nevertheless, the influence of the social context on decision-making has been scarcely investigated. Here, we evaluated for the first time whether the presence of a conspecific influences risk preferences in rats and in tufted capuchin monkeys. Subjects received a series of choices between a constant, safe option and a variable, risky option, both alone (Alone condition) and when paired with a conspecific (Paired condition). The average payoff of the risky option was always lower than that of the safe option. Overall, the two species differed in their attitude towards risk: whereas rats were indifferent between options, capuchins exhibited a preference for the safe option. In both species, risk preferences changed in the Paired condition compared to the Alone condition, although in an opposite way. Whereas rats increased their risk preferences over time when paired with a conspecific, capuchins chose the risky option less in the Paired condition than in the Alone condition. Moreover, whereas anxiety-like behaviours decreased across sessions in rats, these behaviours where more represented in the Paired condition than in the Alone condition in capuchins. Thus, our findings extends to two distantly-related non-human species the evidence, so far available for human beings, that a decrease in anxiety corresponds to an increase in risk preferences, and vice versa. This suggests that the modulation of risk preferences by social influences observed in rats and capuchin monkeys may rely on a common, evolutionarily ancient, mechanism. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

Microzonation of seismic risk in a low-rise Latin American city based on the macroseismic evaluation of the vulnerability of residential buildings: Colima city, México

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobin, V. M.; Cruz-Bravo, A. A.; Ventura-Ramírez, F.

2010-06-01

A macroseismic methodology of seismic risk microzonation in a low-rise city based on the vulnerability of residential buildings is proposed and applied to Colima city, Mexico. The seismic risk microzonation for Colima consists of two elements: the mapping of residential blocks according to their vulnerability level and the calculation of an expert-opinion based damage probability matrix (DPM) for a given level of earthquake intensity and a given type of residential block. A specified exposure time to the seismic risk for this zonation is equal to the interval between two destructive earthquakes. The damage probability matrices were calculated for three types of urban buildings and five types of residential blocks in Colima. It was shown that only 9% of 1409 residential blocks are able to resist to the Modify Mercalli (MM) intensity VII and VIII earthquakes without significant damage. The proposed DPM-2007 is in good accordance with the experimental damage curves based on the macroseismic evaluation of 3332 residential buildings in Colima that was carried out after the 21 January 2003 intensity MM VII earthquake. This methodology and the calculated PDM-2007 curves may be applied also to seismic risk microzonation for many low-rise cities in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

No option would satisfy everyone. [Decision making for decontamination of groundwater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krause, C.

1991-01-01

In an address to registered sanitarians and restaurant inspectors, the Environmental Risk Coordinator for Oak Ridge National Laboratory discussed health risks and the cost of remediation for a typical site with contaminated groundwater. After consideration of each option it was clear that no option satisfied everyone in the group. Even though most members wanted aggressive treatment, they were frustrated to learn that aggressive and expensive treatments were no more effective than the no action option.

Incorporating linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information in a risk-based approach for ranking contaminated sites.

PubMed

Zhang, Kejiang; Achari, Gopal; Pei, Yuansheng

2010-10-01

Different types of uncertain information-linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic-exist in site characterization. Their representation and propagation significantly influence the management of contaminated sites. In the absence of a framework with which to properly represent and integrate these quantitative and qualitative inputs together, decision makers cannot fully take advantage of the available and necessary information to identify all the plausible alternatives. A systematic methodology was developed in the present work to incorporate linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information into the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods for ranking contaminated sites. The identification of criteria based on the paradigm of comparative risk assessment provides a rationale for risk-based prioritization. Uncertain linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information identified in characterizing contaminated sites can be properly represented as numerical values, intervals, probability distributions, and fuzzy sets or possibility distributions, and linguistic variables according to their nature. These different kinds of representation are first transformed into a 2-tuple linguistic representation domain. The propagation of hybrid uncertainties is then carried out in the same domain. This methodology can use the original site information directly as much as possible. The case study shows that this systematic methodology provides more reasonable results. © 2010 SETAC.

Decision aid prototype development for parents considering adenotonsillectomy for their children with sleep disordered breathing.

PubMed

Maguire, Erin; Hong, Paul; Ritchie, Krista; Meier, Jeremy; Archibald, Karen; Chorney, Jill

2016-11-04

To describe the process involved in developing a decision aid prototype for parents considering adenotonsillectomy for their children with sleep disordered breathing. A paper-based decision aid prototype was developed using the framework proposed by the International Patient Decision Aids Standards Collaborative. The decision aid focused on two main treatment options: watchful waiting and adenotonsillectomy. Usability was assessed with parents of pediatric patients and providers with qualitative content analysis of semi-structured interviews, which included open-ended user feedback. A steering committee composed of key stakeholders was assembled. A needs assessment was then performed, which confirmed the need for a decision support tool. A decision aid prototype was developed and modified based on semi-structured qualitative interviews and a scoping literature review. The prototype provided information on the condition, risk and benefits of treatments, and values clarification. The prototype underwent three cycles of accessibility, feasibility, and comprehensibility testing, incorporating feedback from all stakeholders to develop the final decision aid prototype. A standardized, iterative methodology was used to develop a decision aid prototype for parents considering adenotonsillectomy for their children with sleep disordered breathing. The decision aid prototype appeared feasible, acceptable and comprehensible, and may serve as an effective means of improving shared decision-making.

Dopamine Receptor-Specific Contributions to the Computation of Value.

PubMed

Burke, Christopher J; Soutschek, Alexander; Weber, Susanna; Raja Beharelle, Anjali; Fehr, Ernst; Haker, Helene; Tobler, Philippe N

2018-05-01

Dopamine is thought to play a crucial role in value-based decision making. However, the specific contributions of different dopamine receptor subtypes to the computation of subjective value remain unknown. Here we demonstrate how the balance between D1 and D2 dopamine receptor subtypes shapes subjective value computation during risky decision making. We administered the D2 receptor antagonist amisulpride or placebo before participants made choices between risky options. Compared with placebo, D2 receptor blockade resulted in more frequent choice of higher risk and higher expected value options. Using a novel model fitting procedure, we concurrently estimated the three parameters that define individual risk attitude according to an influential theoretical account of risky decision making (prospect theory). This analysis revealed that the observed reduction in risk aversion under amisulpride was driven by increased sensitivity to reward magnitude and decreased distortion of outcome probability, resulting in more linear value coding. Our data suggest that different components that govern individual risk attitude are under dopaminergic control, such that D2 receptor blockade facilitates risk taking and expected value processing.

Fear, Anger, and Risk Preference Reversals: An Experimental Study on a Chinese Sample.

PubMed

She, Shengxiang; Eimontaite, Iveta; Zhang, Dangli; Sun, Yan

2017-01-01

Fear and anger are basic emotions of the same valence which differ in terms of their certainty and control dimensions according to the Appraisal Tendency Framework, a theory addressing the relationship between specific emotions, and judgments and choices. Past research based on the Appraisal Theory revealed contradictory results for risky choice decision-making. However, these conclusions were drawn from Western samples (e.g., North American). Considering potential cultural differences, the present study aims to investigate whether the Appraisal Tendency hypothesis yields the same results in a Chinese sample. Our first study explores how dispositional fear and anger influence risk preferences through a classic virtual "Asia Disease Problem" task and the second study investigates how induced fear and anger influence risk preferences through an incentive-compatible task. Consistent with previous research, our results reveal that induced fear and anger have differential effects on risky decisions: angry participants prefer the risk-seeking option, whereas fearful participants prefer a risk-averse option. However, we find no associations between dispositional fear (or anger) and risky decisions.

Fear, Anger, and Risk Preference Reversals: An Experimental Study on a Chinese Sample

PubMed Central

She, Shengxiang; Eimontaite, Iveta; Zhang, Dangli; Sun, Yan

2017-01-01

Fear and anger are basic emotions of the same valence which differ in terms of their certainty and control dimensions according to the Appraisal Tendency Framework, a theory addressing the relationship between specific emotions, and judgments and choices. Past research based on the Appraisal Theory revealed contradictory results for risky choice decision-making. However, these conclusions were drawn from Western samples (e.g., North American). Considering potential cultural differences, the present study aims to investigate whether the Appraisal Tendency hypothesis yields the same results in a Chinese sample. Our first study explores how dispositional fear and anger influence risk preferences through a classic virtual “Asia Disease Problem” task and the second study investigates how induced fear and anger influence risk preferences through an incentive-compatible task. Consistent with previous research, our results reveal that induced fear and anger have differential effects on risky decisions: angry participants prefer the risk-seeking option, whereas fearful participants prefer a risk-averse option. However, we find no associations between dispositional fear (or anger) and risky decisions. PMID:28871232

Communicating asset risk: how name recognition and the format of historic volatility information affect risk perception and investment decisions.

PubMed

Weber, Elke U; Siebenmorgen, Niklas; Weber, Martin

2005-06-01

An experiment examined how the type and presentation format of information about investment options affected investors' expectations about asset risk, returns, and volatility and how these expectations related to asset choice. Respondents were provided with the names of 16 domestic and foreign investment options, with 10-year historical return information for these options, or with both. Historical returns were presented either as a bar graph of returns per year or as a continuous density distribution. Provision of asset names allowed for the investigation of the mechanisms underlying the home bias in investment choice and other asset familiarity effects. Respondents provided their expectations of future returns, volatility, and expected risk, and indicated the options they would choose to invest in. Expected returns closely resembled historical expected values. Risk and volatility perceptions both varied significantly as a function of the type and format of information, but in different ways. Expected returns and perceived risk, not predicted volatility, predicted portfolio decisions.

Managing the risks of disease transmission through trade: a commodities-based approach?

PubMed

Brückner, G K

2011-04-01

Since its founding in 1924, the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) has facilitated safe trade in animals and animal products by developing effective standards to prevent the spread of animal diseases across the globe. A protocol for recognising the disease-free status of countries is an integral part of this process and has been adopted and advanced through the years to assist OIE Member Countries in placing disease-free animals and their products on the international market. Options such as trade from disease-free zones and disease-free compartments are now available to Members and have proven to be a positive mechanism for facilitating trade. A further option is trading in safe commodities, i.e. animals and animal products that have been identified as safe to trade even in the presence of disease, either with or without applying risk mitigation measures before export. Although most Members have incorporated the acceptance of disease-free countries or zones into their animal health policies and sanitary measures, there still appears to be a reluctance to trade in commodities from infected countries, despite clear, scientifically based risk management standards that can be applied if needed. This paper offers some examples reflecting the apparent reluctance to trade in commodities and discusses how the standards in the OIE's Terrestrial Animal Health Code could be used to apply scientifically based risk management practices to review outdated policies.

A methodology to assess the economic impact of power storage technologies.

PubMed

El-Ghandour, Laila; Johnson, Timothy C

2017-08-13

We present a methodology for assessing the economic impact of power storage technologies. The methodology is founded on classical approaches to the optimal stopping of stochastic processes but involves an innovation that circumvents the need to, ex ante , identify the form of a driving process and works directly on observed data, avoiding model risks. Power storage is regarded as a complement to the intermittent output of renewable energy generators and is therefore important in contributing to the reduction of carbon-intensive power generation. Our aim is to present a methodology suitable for use by policy makers that is simple to maintain, adaptable to different technologies and easy to interpret. The methodology has benefits over current techniques and is able to value, by identifying a viable optimal operational strategy, a conceived storage facility based on compressed air technology operating in the UK.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy management: flexibility, risk and optimization'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Can cognitive behavioural therapy based strategies be integrated into physiotherapy for the prevention of chronic low back pain? A systematic review.

PubMed

Brunner, Emanuel; De Herdt, Amber; Minguet, Philippe; Baldew, Se-Sergio; Probst, Michel

2013-01-01

The primary purpose was to detect randomized controlled trials investigating cognitive behaviour therapy-based (CBT) treatments applied in acute/sub-acute low back pain (LBP). The secondary purpose was to analyse the methodological properties of the included studies, and to identify theory-based treatment strategies that are applicable for physiotherapists. A systematic literature search was conducted using four databases. Risk of bias of included studies was assessed and the methodological properties summarized. In addition, content and treatment theory of detected CBT-based strategies were systematically analysed and classified into three distinctive concepts of CBT: operant, cognitive and respondent treatment. Finally, applicability of treatment strategies in physiotherapy practice was discussed. Eight studies were included in the present systematic review. Half of the studies suffered from high risk of bias, and study characteristics varied in all domains of methodology, particularly in terms of treatment design and outcome measures. Graded activity, an operant treatment approach based on principles of operant conditioning, was identified as a CBT-based strategy with traceable theoretical justification that can be applied by physiotherapists. Operant conditioning can be integrated in ambulant physiotherapy practice and is a promising CBT-based strategy for the prevention of chronic LBP.

Safety of oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-based HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis use in lactating HIV-uninfected women.

PubMed

Mugwanya, Kenneth K; John-Stewart, Grace; Baeten, Jared

2017-07-01

In settings where HIV is prevalent in heterosexual populations, pregnancy and postpartum breastfeeding periods can be associated with substantial HIV acquisition risk. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF)/emtricitabine is an attractive HIV prevention option for women who are lactating but data are limited on its safety during the lactation period. Areas covered: We provide a concise synthesis and summary of current evidence on the safety of TDF-based PrEP during breastfeeding. We conducted a review, searching Pubmed database and major PrEP conferences for primary studies with TDF-based PrEP exposure during postpartum breastfeeding. Expert opinion: TDF-based oral PrEP is an effective female-controlled HIV prevention option. There is evidence supporting the safety of TDF use for infant outcomes during breastfeeding in antiretroviral treatment regimens for HIV and hepatitis B virus, and more limited, but consistently safe, data from use of TDF as PrEP. The potential for risk is arguably outweighed for at-risk individuals by HIV prevention benefits, including indirect protection to the infant as a result of preventing HIV in the breastfeeding mother. As PrEP delivery is scaled up in heterosexual populations in high HIV prevalence settings and for at-risk persons in other settings, implementation science studies can provide a framework to increase the accrual of safety, acceptability, and use data related to PrEP during lactation.

Using the Safer Clinical Systems approach and Model for Improvement methodology to decrease Venous Thrombo-Embolism in Elective Surgical Patients.

PubMed

Humphries, Angela; Peden, Carol; Jordan, Lesley; Crowe, Josephine; Peden, Carol

2016-01-01

A significant incidence of post-procedural deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolus (PE) was identified in patients undergoing surgery at our hospital. Investigation showed an unreliable peri-operative process leading to patients receiving incorrect or missed venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis. The Trust had previously participated in a project funded by the Health Foundation using the "Safer Clinical Systems" methodology to assess, diagnose, appraise options, and implement interventions to improve a high risk medication pathway. We applied the methodology from that study to this cohort of patients demonstrating that the same approach could be applied in a different context. Interventions were linked to the greatest hazards and risks identified during the diagnostic phase. This showed that many surgical elective patients had no VTE risk assessment completed pre-operatively, leading to missed or delayed doses of VTE prophylaxis post-operatively. Collaborative work with stakeholders led to the development of a new process to ensure completion of the VTE risk assessment prior to surgery, which was implemented using the Model for Improvement methodology. The process was supported by the inclusion of a VTE check in the Sign Out element of the WHO Surgical Safety Checklist at the end of surgery, which also ensured that appropriate prophylaxis was prescribed. A standardised operation note including the post-operative VTE plan will be implemented in the near future. At the end of the project VTE risk assessments were completed for 100% of elective surgical patients on admission, compared with 40% in the baseline data. Baseline data also revealed that processes for chemical and mechanical prophylaxis were not reliable. Hospital wide interventions included standardisation of mechanical prophylaxis devices and anti-thromboembolic stockings (resulting in a cost saving of £52,000), and a Trust wide awareness and education programme. The education included increased emphasis on use of mechanical prophylaxis when chemical prophylaxis was contraindicated. VTE guidelines were also included in the existing junior Doctor guideline App. and a "CLOTS" anticoagulation webpage was developed and published on the hospital intranet. The improvement in VTE processes resulted in an 80% reduction in hospital associated thrombosis following surgery from 0.2% in January 2014 to 0.04% in December 2015 and a reduction in the number of all hospital associated VTE from a baseline median of 9 per month as of January 2014 to a median of 1 per month by December 2015.

Quantification of key long-term risks at CO₂ sequestration sites: Latest results from US DOE's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project

DOE PAGES

Pawar, Rajesh; Bromhal, Grant; Carroll, Susan; ...

2014-12-31

Risk assessment for geologic CO₂ storage including quantification of risks is an area of active investigation. The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) is a US-Department of Energy (US-DOE) effort focused on developing a defensible, science-based methodology and platform for quantifying risk profiles at geologic CO₂ sequestration sites. NRAP has been developing a methodology that centers round development of an integrated assessment model (IAM) using system modeling approach to quantify risks and risk profiles. The IAM has been used to calculate risk profiles with a few key potential impacts due to potential CO₂ and brine leakage. The simulation results are alsomore » used to determine long-term storage security relationships and compare the long-term storage effectiveness to IPCC storage permanence goal. Additionally, we also demonstrate application of IAM for uncertainty quantification in order to determine parameters to which the uncertainty in model results is most sensitive.« less

Overview of Risk Mitigation for Safety-Critical Computer-Based Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

2015-01-01

This report presents a high-level overview of a general strategy to mitigate the risks from threats to safety-critical computer-based systems. In this context, a safety threat is a process or phenomenon that can cause operational safety hazards in the form of computational system failures. This report is intended to provide insight into the safety-risk mitigation problem and the characteristics of potential solutions. The limitations of the general risk mitigation strategy are discussed and some options to overcome these limitations are provided. This work is part of an ongoing effort to enable well-founded assurance of safety-related properties of complex safety-critical computer-based aircraft systems by developing an effective capability to model and reason about the safety implications of system requirements and design.

Acute Intraoperative Pulmonary Aspiration

PubMed Central

Nason, Katie S.

2015-01-01

Synopsis Acute intraoperative aspiration is a potentially fatal complication with significant associated morbidity. Patients undergoing thoracic surgery are at increased risk for anesthesia-related aspiration, largely due to the predisposing conditions associated with this complication. Awareness of the risk factors, predisposing conditions, maneuvers to decrease risk and immediate management options by both the thoracic surgeon and the anesthesia team is imperative to reducing risk and optimizing patient outcomes associated with acute intraoperative pulmonary aspiration. Based on the root-cause analyses that many of the aspiration events can be traced back to provider factors, having an experienced anesthesiologist present for high-risk cases is also critical. PMID:26210926

Workshop-based methodology to understand the risks in grain export inspection and certification.

PubMed

Wilson, John R; Vaegen-Lloyd, Jo-Roxy; Caponecchia, Carlo

2009-07-01

Much of the human factors contribution in risk assessment and risk management has been focused on systems or product safety; the profession has a much smaller research base regarding risks to do with regulation, certification and public policy, for example. This paper discusses an explicitly human factors contribution to understanding and managing risk for the inspection and export certification of grain and plant products in Australia. Training and awareness workshops, incorporating elements of focus groups, were run for 12 groups of staff and managers from the government department concerned. As well as training in risk management the workshops were used to come to an understanding of the work of the inspectors and other staff, to identify the sources of risk to the successful completion of their work and to develop the basis for a risk assessment framework and tool. The paper is methodological in focus and describes the development and running of the workshops and explains how a human factors oriented risk register was developed on the basis of identification of potential threats and errors in the system. Whilst the contribution of ergonomics is increasingly important as regards safety risk assessment, professionals have been less active as regards business, public policy and even engineering risk. This paper describes an approach within which a new domain was studied and the risks of all kinds identified, preparatory to development of a risk assessment tool.

The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for flood risk: the case of Sihl river in Zurich

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronco, Paolo; Bullo, Martina; Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Semenzin, Elena; Buchecker, Matthias; Marcomini, Antonio

2014-05-01

In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazard has increased and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing as a consequence of many factors both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (elements potentially at risk in floodplains area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural, and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the strong effect of climate change is projected to radically modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events both at local, regional and global scale. Within this context, it is necessary to develop effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow to assess and (possibly) to reduce the risk of floods. In light of the recent European Flood Directive (FD), the KULTURisk-FP7 Project developed a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology for assessing the risk imposed by floods events. The KULTURisk RRA methodology is based on the concept of risk being function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It is a flexible that can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale) that integrates the outputs of various hydrodynamics models (hazard) with sito-specific geophysical and socio-economic indicators (exposure and vulnerability factors such as land cover, slope, soil permeability, population density, economic activities, etc.). The main outputs of the methodology are GIS-based risk maps that identify and prioritize relative hot-spot areas and targets at risk (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritages) in the considered region by comparing the baseline scenario with alternative scenarios, where different structural and/or non-structural mitigation measures are planned. Risk maps, along with related statistics, provide crucial information about flood risk pattern, and allow the development of relevant and strategic mitigation and prevention measures to minimizing flood risk in urban areas. The present study applied and validated the KULTURisk RRA methodology to the Sihl river case study in Zurich (Switzerland). Through a tuning process of the methodology to the site-specific context and features, flood related risks have been assessed for different receptors lying on the Sihl river valley, which represents a typical case of river flooding in urban area. The total risk maps obtained under a 300 years return period scenario (selected as the reference one) have highlighted that the area is associated with the lower class of risk. Moreover, the relative risk is higher in Zurich city centre, in the few residential areas around the city centre and within the districts that rely just beside to the Sihl river course.

A Comparative Approach for Ranking Contaminated Sites Based on the Risk Assessment Paradigm Using Fuzzy PROMETHEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kejiang; Kluck, Cheryl; Achari, Gopal

2009-11-01

A ranking system for contaminated sites based on comparative risk methodology using fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) was developed in this article. It combines the concepts of fuzzy sets to represent uncertain site information with the PROMETHEE, a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Criteria are identified based on a combination of the attributes (toxicity, exposure, and receptors) associated with the potential human health and ecological risks posed by contaminated sites, chemical properties, site geology and hydrogeology and contaminant transport phenomena. Original site data are directly used avoiding the subjective assignment of scores to site attributes. When the input data are numeric and crisp the PROMETHEE method can be used. The Fuzzy PROMETHEE method is preferred when substantial uncertainties and subjectivities exist in site information. The PROMETHEE and fuzzy PROMETHEE methods are both used in this research to compare the sites. The case study shows that this methodology provides reasonable results.

A comparative approach for ranking contaminated sites based on the risk assessment paradigm using fuzzy PROMETHEE.

PubMed

Zhang, Kejiang; Kluck, Cheryl; Achari, Gopal

2009-11-01

A ranking system for contaminated sites based on comparative risk methodology using fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) was developed in this article. It combines the concepts of fuzzy sets to represent uncertain site information with the PROMETHEE, a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Criteria are identified based on a combination of the attributes (toxicity, exposure, and receptors) associated with the potential human health and ecological risks posed by contaminated sites, chemical properties, site geology and hydrogeology and contaminant transport phenomena. Original site data are directly used avoiding the subjective assignment of scores to site attributes. When the input data are numeric and crisp the PROMETHEE method can be used. The Fuzzy PROMETHEE method is preferred when substantial uncertainties and subjectivities exist in site information. The PROMETHEE and fuzzy PROMETHEE methods are both used in this research to compare the sites. The case study shows that this methodology provides reasonable results.

Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

PubMed

Pan, Wei; Chen, Yi-Shin

2018-01-01

Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight.

76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-11

... regulatory measurement methodologies; and increase transparency through enhanced disclosures. The proposal... banks \\1\\ entitled International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards (1988 Capital... the internal models approach (see http://www.bis.org/press/p970918a.htm ). \\5\\ 61 FR 47358 (September...

Ergonomic initiatives at Inmetro: measuring occupational health and safety.

PubMed

Drucker, L; Amaral, M; Carvalheira, C

2012-01-01

This work studies biomechanical hazards to which the workforce of Instituto Nacional de Metrologia, Qualidade e Tecnologia Industrial (Inmetro) is exposed. It suggests a model for ergonomic evaluation of work, based on the concepts of resilience engineering which take into consideration the institute's ability to manage risk and deal with its consequences. Methodology includes the stages of identification, inventory, analysis, and risk management. Diagnosis of the workplace uses as parameters the minimal criteria stated in Brazilian legislation. The approach has several prospectives and encompasses the points of view of public management, safety engineering, physical therapy and ergonomics-oriented design. The suggested solution integrates all aspects of the problem: biological, psychological, sociological and organizational. Results obtained from a pilot Project allow to build a significant sample of Inmetro's workforce, identifying problems and validating the methodology employed as a tool to be applied to the whole institution. Finally, this work intends to draw risk maps and support goals and methods based on resiliency engineering to assess environmental and ergonomic risk management.

NGS tools for traceability in candies as high processed food products: Ion Torrent PGM versus conventional PCR-cloning.

PubMed

Muñoz-Colmenero, Marta; Martínez, Jose Luis; Roca, Agustín; Garcia-Vazquez, Eva

2017-01-01

The Next Generation Sequencing methodologies are considered the next step within DNA-based methods and their applicability in different fields is being evaluated. Here, we tested the usefulness of the Ion Torrent Personal Genome Machine (PGM) in food traceability analyzing candies as a model of high processed foods, and compared the results with those obtained by PCR-cloning-sequencing (PCR-CS). The majority of samples exhibited consistency between methodologies, yielding more information and species per product from the PGM platform than PCR-CS. Significantly higher AT-content in sequences of the same species was also obtained from PGM. This together with some taxonomical discrepancies between methodologies suggest that the PGM platform is still pre-mature for its use in food traceability of complex highly processed products. It could be a good option for analysis of less complex food, saving time and cost per sample. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Xiaoling

Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

New arrows in the quiver for targeting care management: high-risk versus high-opportunity case identification.

PubMed

Bernstein, Richard H

2007-01-01

"Care management" purposefully obscures the distinctions between disease and case management and stresses their common features: action in the present to prevent adverse future outcomes and costs. It includes identifying a high-need population by referrals, screening, or data analysis, assessing those likely to benefit from interventions, intervening, evaluating the intervention, and adjusting interventions when needed. High-risk individuals can be identified using at least 9 techniques, from referrals and questionnaires to retrospective claims analysis and predictive models. Other than referrals, software based on the risk-adjustment methodology that we have adapted can incorporate all these methodologies. Because the risk adjustment employs extensive case mix and severity adjustment, it provides care managers with 3 innovative ways to identify not only high-risk individuals but also high-opportunity cases.

Summary of Research on Online and Blended Learning Programs That Offer Differentiated Learning Options. REL 2017-228

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brodersen, R. Marc; Melluzzo, Daniel

2017-01-01

This report summarizes the methodology, measures, and findings of research on the influence on student achievement outcomes of K-12 online and blended face-to-face and online learning programs that offer differentiated learning options. The report also describes the characteristics of the learning programs. Most of the examined programs used…

Specific and Optional Curriculum: An Experience in the Undergraduate Program of Chemical Engineering in Cienfuegos University, Cuba

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martínez, Yolanda García; Velázquez, Claudia Alvarado; Castillo, Rolando Delgado

2016-01-01

This paper pursues to define the pillars for designing the specific (SC) and optional curricula (OC) of Unit Operations and Processes (UOP) Discipline in the Chemical Engineering Program. To achieve this objective a methodology was developed, which was characterized by the participation of every member in the educational process: professors,…

Influence of Information and Communication Technologies on the Resilience and Coping of Sexual and Gender Minority Youth in the United States and Canada (Project #Queery): Mixed Methods Survey

PubMed Central

McInroy, Lauren B; D'Souza, Sandra A; Austin, Ashley; McCready, Lance T; Eaton, Andrew D; Shade, Leslie R; Wagaman, M Alex

2017-01-01

Background Sexual and gender minority youth are a population in peril, exemplified by their disproportionate risk of negative experiences and outcomes. Sexual and gender minority youth may be particularly active users of information and communication technologies (ICTs), and it is important to identify the potential contributions of ICTs to their resilience and well-being. Objective Our aim was to (1) investigate the use of ICTs by sexual and gender minority youth, (2) identify the ways that ICTs influence the resilience and coping of sexual and gender minority youth, focusing on promotion of well-being through self-guided support-seeking (particularly using mobile devices), (3) develop a contextually relevant theoretical conceptualization of resilience incorporating minority stress and ecological approaches, (4) generate best practices and materials that are accessible to multiple interested groups, and (5) identify whether video narratives are a viable alternative to collect qualitative responses in Web-based surveys for youth. Methods Mixed methods, cross-sectional data (N=6309) were collected via a Web-based survey from across the United States and Canada from March-July 2016. The sample was generated using a multipronged, targeted recruitment approach using Web-based strategies and consists of self-identified English-speaking sexual and gender minority youth aged 14-29 with technological literacy sufficient to complete the Web-based survey. The survey was divided into eight sections: (1) essential demographics, (2) ICT usage, (3) health and mental health, (4) coping and resilience, (5) sexual and gender minority youth identities and engagement, (6) fandom communities, (7) nonessential demographics, and (8) a video submission (optional, n=108). The option of a 3-5 minute video submission represents a new research innovation in Web-based survey research. Results Data collection is complete (N=6309), and analyses are ongoing. Proposed analyses include (1) structural equation modeling of quantitative data, (2) grounded theory analysis of qualitative data, and (3) an integrative, mixed methods analysis using a data transformation design. Theoretical and methodological triangulation of analyses integrates an interwoven pattern of results into a comprehensive picture of a phenomenon. Results will be reported in 2017 and 2018. Conclusions This research study will provide critical insights into the emerging use of ICTs by sexual and gender minority youth and identify intervention strategies to improve their well-being and reduce risks encountered by this vulnerable population. Implications for practice, research, and knowledge translation are provided. PMID:28958984

Eco-efficiency improvements in industrial water-service systems: assessing options with stakeholders.

PubMed

Levidow, Les; Lindgaard-Jørgensen, Palle; Nilsson, Asa; Skenhall, Sara Alongi; Assimacopoulos, Dionysis

2014-01-01

The well-known eco-efficiency concept helps to assess the economic value and resource burdens of potential improvements by comparison with the baseline situation. But eco-efficiency assessments have generally focused on a specific site, while neglecting wider effects, for example, through interactions between water users and wastewater treatment (WWT) providers. To address the methodological gap, the EcoWater project has developed a method and online tools for meso-level analysis of the entire water-service value chain. This study investigated improvement options in two large manufacturing companies which have significant potential for eco-efficiency gains. They have been considering investment in extra processes which can lower resource burdens from inputs and wastewater, as well as internalising WWT processes. In developing its methodology, the EcoWater project obtained the necessary information from many agents, involved them in the meso-level assessment and facilitated their discussion on alternative options. Prior discussions with stakeholders stimulated their attendance at a workshop to discuss a comparative eco-efficiency assessment for whole-system improvement. Stakeholders expressed interest in jointly extending the EcoWater method to more options and in discussing investment strategies. In such ways, optimal solutions will depend on stakeholders overcoming fragmentation by sharing responsibility and knowledge.

The Case for Mixed Methodologies in Researching the Teacher's Use of Humour in Adult Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Struthers, John

2011-01-01

Inconsistencies within the literature result in teachers not having sufficient guidance to develop their humour use in support of learning without risking their professionalism. This article argues for more comprehensive evidence to guide teachers' use of humour, based on mixed methodological approaches. The case is also made for the Interpersonal…

Transitional Employment Aspirations for Bridging Retirement: Implications for Training and Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pillay, Hitendra; Kelly, Kathy; Tones, Megan

2010-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify the transitional employment (TE) aspirations and training and development needs of older and younger workers at risk of early retirement due to limited education and/or employment in blue-collar (BC) occupations. Design/methodology/approach: A computer-based methodology is used to evaluate the…

Remedial Action Assessment System (RAAS): A computer-based methodology for conducting feasibility studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buelt, J.L.; Stottlemyre, J.A.; White, M.K.

1991-09-01

Because of the great complexity and number of potential waste sites facing the US Department of Energy (DOE) for potential cleanup, the DOE is supporting the development of a computer-based methodology to streamline the remedial investigations/feasibility study process required for DOE operable units. DOE operable units are generally more complex in nature because of the existence of multiple waste sites within many of the operable units and the presence of mixed radioactive and hazardous chemical wastes. Consequently, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is developing the Remedial Action Assessment System (RAAS), which is aimed at screening, linking, and evaluating establishment technology processmore » options in support of conducting feasibility studies under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). It is also intended to do the same in support of corrective measures studies requires by the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). This paper presents the characteristics of two RAAS prototypes currently being developed. These include the RAAS Technology Information System, which accesses information on technologies in a graphical and tabular manner, and the main RAAS methodology, which screens, links, and evaluates remedial technologies. 4 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.« less

Remedial Action Assessment System (RAAS): A computer-based methodology for conducting feasibility studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buelt, J.L.; Stottlemyre, J.A.; White, M.K.

1991-02-01

Because of the great complexity and number of potential waste sites facing the US Department of Energy (DOE) for potential cleanup, the DOE is supporting the development of a computer-based methodology to streamline the remedial investigation/feasibility study process required for DOE operable units. DOE operable units are generally more complex in nature because of the existence of multiple waste sites within many of the operable units and the presence of mixed radioactive and hazardous chemical wastes. Consequently, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is developing the Remedial Action Assessment System (RAAS), which is aimed at screening, linking, and evaluating established technology processmore » options in support of conducting feasibility studies under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). It is also intended to do the same in support of corrective measures studies required by the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). This paper presents the characteristics of two RAAS prototypes currently being developed. These include the RAAS Technology Information System, which accesses information on technologies in a graphical and tabular manner, and the main RAAS methodology, which screens, links, and evaluates remedial technologies. 4 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.« less

Future water supply management adaptation measures - case study of Ljubljana field aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Čenčur Curk, B.; Zajc Benda, T.; Souvent, P.; Bračič Železnik, B.; Bogardi, I.

2012-04-01

The main drinking water supply problems are related to the significant change of groundwater quantity and quality observed in the last decades as an effect of land use practices and very likely also climate change. The latter may affect the ability of drinking water suppliers to provide enough water of sufficient quality to the consumers. These topics were studied in the frame of SEE project CC-WaterS (Climate Change and Impact on Water Supply) with the main goal to develop a water supply management system regarding optimisation of water extraction and land use restrictions under climate change scenarios for water suppliers, since existing management practices are mostly inadequate to reduce impacts of CC on water supply reliability. The main goal was a designation of appropriate measures and risk assessment to adapt water supply to changing climate and land use activities considering socio-economic aspects. This was accomplished by using 'Fuzzy Decimaker', which is a tool for selecting and ranking risk reduction measures or management actions for local waterworks or water authorities under the pressure of climate change. Firstly, management options were selected and ranked. For public water supply of Ljubljana, the capital of Slovenia, several management options were selected. For improvement of water supply and preservation of water resource quantities there is a need for engineering interventions, such as reducing water losses on pipelines. For improving drinking water safety and preserving water resource quality farmers are not allowed to use fertilisers in the first safeguarding zone and they get compensations for income reduction because of lower farming production. Compensations for farming restrictions in the second safeguarding zone were applied as additional management option. On the other hand, drinking water treatment is another management option to be considered. Trends in groundwater level are decreasing, above all recharge areas of waterworks; therefore there is a threat of reduction of water resource availability. For this following management options were proposed: artificial recharge with infiltration wells, setting up new and additional waterworks (one with river bank filtration, one with exploitation of local porous aquifer and one with deep groundwater exploitation from dolomite aquifer). Management actions can be evaluated according to several criteria, such as water supply risk reduction for the various users (drinking, agricultural, industrial and ecological), realization of the actions (cost, flexibility and leg time). Ranking criteria are characterized by different units (e.g. units of water supply (quantity) risk may involve number of unsupplied people, monetary terms, agricultural area or habitat loss). Decision making process is followed by defining relative weights, balancing factors and best and worst values for the indicators; calculating base risk and risk elements for each management option and sensitivity analysis. The result of this decision making process is evaluation of preferred management option(s) according to the ranking results.

A Real Options Approach to Valuing the Risk Transfer in a Multi-Year Procurement Contract

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-01

asset follows a Brownian motion process where the returns have a lognormal distribution. H. BLACK-SCHOLES MODEL The value of the put option p on...risk in a firm-fixed-price contract. The government also provides interest-free financing that can greatly reduce the amount of capital a contractor...structured finance and credit default swap applications. 8 E. OPTIONS THEORY We will use closed form BS-type option pricing methods to estimate the

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: MAGNETIC TAPE ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

U.S. Department of Energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C.

1995-06-01

This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments.

Pathogen Treatment Guidance and Monitoring Approaches fro ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On-site non-potable water reuse is increasingly used to augment water supplies, but traditional fecal indicator approaches for defining and monitoring exposure risks are limited when applied to these decentralized options. This session emphasizes risk-based modeling to define pathogen log-reduction requirements coupled with alternative targets for monitoring enabled by genomic sequencing (i.e., the microbiome of reuse systems). 1. Discuss risk-based modeling to define pathogen log-reduction requirements 2. Review alternative targets for monitoring 3. Gain an understanding of how new tools can help improve successful development of sustainable on-site non-potable water reuse Presented at the Water Wastewater Equipment Treatment & Transport Show.

Methodology for Augmenting Existing Paths with Additional Parallel Transects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, John E.

2013-09-30

Visual Sample Plan (VSP) is sample planning software that is used, among other purposes, to plan transect sampling paths to detect areas that were potentially used for munition training. This module was developed for application on a large site where existing roads and trails were to be used as primary sampling paths. Gap areas between these primary paths needed to found and covered with parallel transect paths. These gap areas represent areas on the site that are more than a specified distance from a primary path. These added parallel paths needed to optionally be connected together into a single path—themore » shortest path possible. The paths also needed to optionally be attached to existing primary paths, again with the shortest possible path. Finally, the process must be repeatable and predictable so that the same inputs (primary paths, specified distance, and path options) will result in the same set of new paths every time. This methodology was developed to meet those specifications.« less

Intervention strategies for carcass disposal: pareto analysis of exposures for exotic disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Delgado, João; Longhurst, Phil; Hickman, Gordon A W; Gauntlett, Daniel M; Howson, Simon F; Irving, Phil; Hart, Alwyn; Pollard, Simon J T

2010-06-15

An enhanced methodology for the policy-level prioritization of intervention options during carcass disposal is presented. Pareto charts provide a semiquantitative analysis of opportunities for multiple exposures to human health, animal health, and the wider environment during carcass disposal; they identify critical control points for risk management and assist in waste technology assessment. Eighty percent of the total availability of more than 1300 potential exposures to human, animal, or environmental receptors is represented by 16 processes, these being dominated by on-farm collection and carcass processing, reinforcing the criticality of effective controls during early stages of animal culling and waste processing. Exposures during mass burials are dominated by ground- and surface-water exposures with noise and odor nuisance prevalent for mass pyres, consistent with U.K. experience. Pareto charts are discussed in the context of other visualization formats for policy officials and promoted as a communication tool for informing the site-specific risk assessments required during the operational phases of exotic disease outbreaks.

Development and prevention of work related disorders in a sample of Brazilian violinists.

PubMed

Lima, Ronise Costa; Pinheiro, Tarcísio Márcio Magalhães; Dias, Elizabeth Costa; de Andrade, Edson Queiroz

2015-06-05

The present study is part of a project designed to investigate the development of disorders related to the work of orchestra violinists. To describe and analyze the functional disorders of the musculoskeletal systems of violinists from the four orchestras in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Analyses of musculoskeletal system disorders found in violinists from orchestras in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, were completed using a variety of approaches, including Occupational Therapy, Epidemiology and the Social Science methodologies. Participants sustained musculoskeletal disorders despite their common sense belief that musicians are generally healthier than other professional groups. The struggle for a better financial situation forced study participants to work harder, in a variety of work environments, increasing and diversifying their exposure to risk factors. Protective and preventive measures were scarce and in most cases these were only employed after the onset of musculoskeletal disorders. The use of inadequate strategies and the lack of appropriate options to deal with risk factors contributed to the maintenance of symptoms or the onset of health disorders.

Martial recycling from renewable landfill and associated risks: A review.

PubMed

Ziyang, Lou; Luochun, Wang; Nanwen, Zhu; Youcai, Zhao

2015-07-01

Landfill is the dominant disposal choice for the non-classified waste, which results in the stockpile of materials after a long term stabilization process. A novel landfill, namely renewable landfill (RL), is developed and applied as a strategy to recycle the residual materials and reuse the land occupation, aim to reduce the inherent problems of large land occupied, materials wasted and long-term pollutants released in the conventional landfill. The principle means of RL is to accelerate the waste biodegradation process in the initial period, recover the various material resources disposal and extend the landfill volume for waste re-landfilling after waste stabilized. The residual material available and risk assessment, the methodology of landfill excavation, the potential utilization routes for different materials, and the reclamation options for the unsanitary landfill are proposed, and the integrated beneficial impacts are identified finally from the economic, social and environmental perspectives. RL could be draw as the future reservoirs for resource extraction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using scan statistics for congenital anomalies surveillance: the EUROCAT methodology.

PubMed

Teljeur, Conor; Kelly, Alan; Loane, Maria; Densem, James; Dolk, Helen

2015-11-01

Scan statistics have been used extensively to identify temporal clusters of health events. We describe the temporal cluster detection methodology adopted by the EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) monitoring system. Since 2001, EUROCAT has implemented variable window width scan statistic for detecting unusual temporal aggregations of congenital anomaly cases. The scan windows are based on numbers of cases rather than being defined by time. The methodology is imbedded in the EUROCAT Central Database for annual application to centrally held registry data. The methodology was incrementally adapted to improve the utility and to address statistical issues. Simulation exercises were used to determine the power of the methodology to identify periods of raised risk (of 1-18 months). In order to operationalize the scan methodology, a number of adaptations were needed, including: estimating date of conception as unit of time; deciding the maximum length (in time) and recency of clusters of interest; reporting of multiple and overlapping significant clusters; replacing the Monte Carlo simulation with a lookup table to reduce computation time; and placing a threshold on underlying population change and estimating the false positive rate by simulation. Exploration of power found that raised risk periods lasting 1 month are unlikely to be detected except when the relative risk and case counts are high. The variable window width scan statistic is a useful tool for the surveillance of congenital anomalies. Numerous adaptations have improved the utility of the original methodology in the context of temporal cluster detection in congenital anomalies.

Fission Power System Technology for NASA Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, Lee; Houts, Michael

2011-01-01

Under the NASA Exploration Technology Development Program, and in partnership with the Department of Energy (DOE), NASA is conducting a project to mature Fission Power System (FPS) technology. A primary project goal is to develop viable system options to support future NASA mission needs for nuclear power. The main FPS project objectives are as follows: 1) Develop FPS concepts that meet expected NASA mission power requirements at reasonable cost with added benefits over other options. 2) Establish a hardware-based technical foundation for FPS design concepts and reduce overall development risk. 3) Reduce the cost uncertainties for FPS and establish greater credibility for flight system cost estimates. 4) Generate the key products to allow NASA decisionmakers to consider FPS as a preferred option for flight development. In order to achieve these goals, the FPS project has two main thrusts: concept definition and risk reduction. Under concept definition, NASA and DOE are performing trade studies, defining requirements, developing analytical tools, and formulating system concepts. A typical FPS consists of the reactor, shield, power conversion, heat rejection, and power management and distribution (PMAD). Studies are performed to identify the desired design parameters for each subsystem that allow the system to meet the requirements with reasonable cost and development risk. Risk reduction provides the means to evaluate technologies in a laboratory test environment. Non-nuclear hardware prototypes are built and tested to verify performance expectations, gain operating experience, and resolve design uncertainties.

Plant-based diets and cardiovascular health.

PubMed

Satija, Ambika; Hu, Frank B

2018-02-13

Plant-based diets, defined in terms of low frequency of animal food consumption, have been increasingly recommended for their health benefits. Numerous studies have found plant-based diets, especially when rich in high quality plant foods such as whole grains, fruits, vegetables, and nuts, to be associated with lower risk of cardiovascular outcomes and intermediate risk factors. This review summarizes the current evidence base examining the associations of plant-based diets with cardiovascular endpoints, and discusses the potential biological mechanisms underlying their health effects, practical recommendations and applications of this research, and directions for future research. Healthful plant-based diets should be recommended as an environmentally sustainable dietary option for improved cardiovascular health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pre-operative Screening and Manual Drilling Strategies to Reduce the Risk of Thermal Injury During Minimally Invasive Cochlear Implantation Surgery.

PubMed

Dillon, Neal P; Fichera, Loris; Kesler, Kyle; Zuniga, M Geraldine; Mitchell, Jason E; Webster, Robert J; Labadie, Robert F

2017-09-01

This article presents the development and experimental validation of a methodology to reduce the risk of thermal injury to the facial nerve during minimally invasive cochlear implantation surgery. The first step in this methodology is a pre-operative screening process, in which medical imaging is used to identify those patients that present a significant risk of developing high temperatures at the facial nerve during the drilling phase of the procedure. Such a risk is calculated based on the density of the bone along the drilling path and the thermal conductance between the drilling path and the nerve, and provides a criterion to exclude high-risk patients from receiving the minimally invasive procedure. The second component of the methodology is a drilling strategy for manually-guided drilling near the facial nerve. The strategy utilizes interval drilling and mechanical constraints to enable better control over the procedure and the resulting generation of heat. The approach is tested in fresh cadaver temporal bones using a thermal camera to monitor temperature near the facial nerve. Results indicate that pre-operative screening may successfully exclude high-risk patients and that the proposed drilling strategy enables safe drilling for low-to-moderate risk patients.

[The urgent problems of the improvement of the environment management system based on the analysis of health risk assessment].

PubMed

Avaliani, S L; Novikov, S M; Shashina, T A; Dodina, N S; Kislitsin, V A; Mishina, A L

2014-01-01

The lack of adequate legislative and regulatory framework for ensuring minimization of the health risks in the field of environmental protection is the obstacle for the application of the risk analysis methodology as a leading tool for administrative activity in Russia. "Principles of the state policy in the sphere of ensuring chemical and biological safety of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 and beyond", approved by the President of the Russian Federation on 01 November 2013, No PR-25 73, are aimed at the legal support for the health risk analysis methodology. In the article there have been supposed the main stages of the operative control of the environmental quality, which lead to the reduction of the health risk to the acceptable level. The further improvement of the health risk analysis methodology in Russia should contribute to the implementation of the state policy in the sphere of chemical and biological safety through the introduction of complex measures on neutralization of chemical and biological threats to the human health and the environment, as well as evaluation of the economic effectiveness of these measures. The primary step should be the legislative securing of the quantitative value for the term: "acceptable risk".

Development of the Methodology Needed to Quantify Risks to Groundwater at CO2 Storage Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C. F.; Birkholzer, J. T.; Carroll, S.; Hakala, A.; Keating, E. H.; Lopano, C. L.; Newell, D. L.; Spycher, N.

2011-12-01

The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) is an effort that harnesses capabilities across five U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories into a mission-focused platform to develop a defensible, science-based quantitative methodology for determining risk profiles at CO2 storage sites. NRAP is conducting risk and uncertainty analysis in the areas of reservoir performance, natural leakage pathways, wellbore integrity, groundwater protection, monitoring, and systems level modeling. The mission of NRAP is "to provide the scientific underpinning for risk assessment with respect to the long-term storage of CO2, including assessment of residual risk associated with a site post-closure." Additionally, NRAP will develop a strategic, risk-based monitoring protocol, such that monitoring at all stages of a project effectively minimizes uncertainty in the predicted behavior of the site, thereby increasing confidence in storage integrity. NRAP's research focus in the area of groundwater protection is divided into three main tasks: 1) development of quantitative risk profiles for potential groundwater impacts; 2) filling key science gaps in developing those risk profiles; and 3) field-based confirmation. Within these three tasks, researchers are engaged in collaborative studies to determine metrics to identify system perturbation and their associated risk factors. Reservoir simulations are being performed to understand/predict consequences of hypothetical leakage scenarios, from which reduced order models are being developed to feed risk profile development. Both laboratory-based experiments and reactive transport modeling studies provide estimates of geochemical impacts over a broad range of leakage scenarios. This presentation will provide an overview of the research objectives within NRAP's groundwater protection focus area, as well as select accomplishments achieved to date.

Advancing scoping study methodology: a web-based survey and consultation of perceptions on terminology, definition and methodological steps.

PubMed

O'Brien, Kelly K; Colquhoun, Heather; Levac, Danielle; Baxter, Larry; Tricco, Andrea C; Straus, Sharon; Wickerson, Lisa; Nayar, Ayesha; Moher, David; O'Malley, Lisa

2016-07-26

Scoping studies (or reviews) are a method used to comprehensively map evidence across a range of study designs in an area, with the aim of informing future research practice, programs and policy. However, no universal agreement exists on terminology, definition or methodological steps. Our aim was to understand the experiences of, and considerations for conducting scoping studies from the perspective of academic and community partners. Primary objectives were to 1) describe experiences conducting scoping studies including strengths and challenges; and 2) describe perspectives on terminology, definition, and methodological steps. We conducted a cross-sectional web-based survey with clinicians, educators, researchers, knowledge users, representatives from community-based organizations, graduate students, and policy stakeholders with experience and/or interest in conducting scoping studies to gain an understanding of experiences and perspectives on the conduct and reporting of scoping studies. We administered an electronic self-reported questionnaire comprised of 22 items related to experiences with scoping studies, strengths and challenges, opinions on terminology, and methodological steps. We analyzed questionnaire data using descriptive statistics and content analytical techniques. Survey results were discussed during a multi-stakeholder consultation to identify key considerations in the conduct and reporting of scoping studies. Of the 83 invitations, 54 individuals (65 %) completed the scoping questionnaire, and 48 (58 %) attended the scoping study meeting from Canada, the United Kingdom and United States. Many scoping study strengths were dually identified as challenges including breadth of scope, and iterative process. No consensus on terminology emerged, however key defining features that comprised a working definition of scoping studies included the exploratory mapping of literature in a field; iterative process, inclusion of grey literature; no quality assessment of included studies, and an optional consultation phase. We offer considerations for the conduct and reporting of scoping studies for researchers, clinicians and knowledge users engaging in this methodology. Lack of consensus on scoping terminology, definition and methodological steps persists. Reasons for this may be attributed to diversity of disciplines adopting this methodology for differing purposes. Further work is needed to establish guidelines on the reporting and methodological quality assessment of scoping studies.

Lunar lander and return propulsion system trade study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurlbert, Eric A.; Moreland, Robert; Sanders, Gerald B.; Robertson, Edward A.; Amidei, David; Mulholland, John

1993-01-01

This trade study was initiated at NASA/JSC in May 1992 to develop and evaluate main propulsion system alternatives to the reference First Lunar Outpost (FLO) lander and return-stage transportation system concept. Thirteen alternative configurations were developed to explore the impacts of various combinations of return stage propellants, using either pressure or pump-fed propulsion systems and various staging options. Besides two-stage vehicle concepts, the merits of single-stage and stage-and-a-half options were also assessed in combination with high-performance liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen propellants. Configurations using an integrated modular cryogenic engine were developed to assess potential improvements in packaging efficiency, mass performance, and system reliability compared to non-modular cryogenic designs. The selection process to evaluate the various designs was the analytic hierarchy process. The trade study showed that a pressure-fed MMH/N2O4 return stage and RL10-based lander stage is the best option for a 1999 launch. While results of this study are tailored to FLO needs, the design date, criteria, and selection methodology are applicable to the design of other crewed lunar landing and return vehicles.

Developing a Customized Program Assessment Methodology for Assurance of Learning: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Hope; Brawley, Dorothy; Campbell, Jane; Capozzoli, Ernest; Malgeri, Linda; Roberts, Gary

2007-01-01

For most academic institutions, selecting and/or designing a Program Assessment methodology for Assurance of Learning is a challenging task. This paper describes the steps taken to establish goals, values and criteria driving this process for a College of Business. In this case analysis, we document the options we explored in finding the right…

The internal audit of clinical areas: a pilot of the internal audit methodology in a health service emergency department.

PubMed

Brown, Alison; Santilli, Mario; Scott, Belinda

2015-12-01

Governing bodies of health services need assurance that major risks to achieving the health service objectives are being controlled. Currently, the main assurance mechanisms generated within the organization are through the review of implementation of policies and procedures and review of clinical audits and quality data. The governing bodies of health services need more robust, objective data to inform their understanding of the control of clinical risks. Internal audit provides a methodological framework that provides independent and objective assurance to the governing body on the control of significant risks. The article describes the pilot of the internal audit methodology in an emergency unit in a health service. An internal auditor was partnered with a clinical expert to assess the application of clinical criteria based on best practice guidelines. The pilot of the internal audit of a clinical area was successful in identifying significant clinical risks that required further management. The application of an internal audit methodology to a clinical area is a promising mechanism to gain robust assurance at the governance level regarding the management of significant clinical risks. This approach needs further exploration and trial in a range of health care settings. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graber, Robert R.

2010-01-01

A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

Exploring the relationship between food access and foodborne illness by using spatial analysis.

PubMed

Newbold, Bruce; Watson, Susannah; Mackay, Kevin; Isaacs, Sandy

2013-09-01

There is some evidence that neighborhood deprivation increases residents' risk of foodborne illnesses. Because urban areas with the least available access to adequate amounts of nutritious or affordable food options (or "food deserts") also tend to be the most deprived areas within a city, it is hypothesized that food access and foodborne illness risk are linked. However, the complexity of tracking numbers and sources of gastrointestinal (GI) illnesses often leads researchers to speculate about reasons for disproportionate rates of pathogen outbreaks among demographic groups. This study explores the suitability of existing data to examine associations between food deserts and the spatial distribution of GI illnesses in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. A spatial analysis by using GIS software methodology was used to identify and map food retail outlets and accessibility, as well as GI illness outbreaks and sales of antidiarrhea, antinausea, and rehydration products (used as a proxy for GI cases) within the city, based on available data. Statistical analysis of the maps shows no statistical relationship between location, access to food outlets, and rates of GI illness. The analysis points to shortfalls and gaps in the existing data, which leaves us unable to draw conclusions either supporting or refuting our hypothesis. This article includes recommendations to improve the current system of illness reporting and to continue to refine the definition and process of mapping food access issues. A more comprehensive set of data would enable municipalities to more easily identify groups most at risk, depending on exposures and the type of pathogen, and reduce the occurrence of foodborne disease.

A structured multi-stakeholder learning process for Sustainable Land Management.

PubMed

Schwilch, Gudrun; Bachmann, Felicitas; Valente, Sandra; Coelho, Celeste; Moreira, Jorge; Laouina, Abdellah; Chaker, Miloud; Aderghal, Mohamed; Santos, Patricia; Reed, Mark S

2012-09-30

There are many, often competing, options for Sustainable Land Management (SLM). Each must be assessed - and sometimes negotiated - prior to implementation. Participatory, multi-stakeholder approaches to identification and selection of SLM options are increasingly popular, often motivated by social learning and empowerment goals. Yet there are few practical tools for facilitating processes in which land managers may share, select, and decide on the most appropriate SLM options. The research presented here aims to close the gap between the theory and the practice of stakeholder participation/learning in SLM decision-making processes. The paper describes a three-part participatory methodology for selecting SLM options that was tested in 14 desertification-prone study sites within the EU-DESIRE project. Cross-site analysis and in-depth evaluation of the Moroccan and Portuguese sites were used to evaluate how well the proposed process facilitated stakeholder learning and selection of appropriate SLM options for local implementation. The structured nature of the process - starting with SLM goal setting - was found to facilitate mutual understanding and collaboration between stakeholders. The deliberation process led to a high degree of consensus over the outcome and, though not an initial aim, it fostered social learning in many cases. This solution-oriented methodology is applicable in a wide range of contexts and may be implemented with limited time and resources. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Varying geospatial analyses to assess climate risk and adaptive capacity in a hotter, drier Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, E.; Reyes, J. J.; Steele, C. M.; Rango, A.

2017-12-01

Assessing vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate variability and change is vital in securing food systems and sustaining rural livelihoods. Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners rely on science-based, decision-relevant, and localized information to maintain production, ecological viability, and economic returns. This contribution synthesizes a collection of research on the future of agricultural production in the American Southwest (SW). Research was based on a variety of geospatial methodologies and datasets to assess the vulnerability of rangelands and livestock, field crops, specialty crops, and forests in the SW to climate-risk and change. This collection emerged from the development of regional vulnerability assessments for agricultural climate-risk by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hub Network, established to deliver science-based information and technologies to enable climate-informed decision-making. Authors defined vulnerability differently based on their agricultural system of interest, although each primarily focuses on biophysical systems. We found that an inconsistent framework for vulnerability and climate risk was necessary to adequately capture the diversity, variability, and heterogeneity of SW landscapes, peoples, and agriculture. Through the diversity of research questions and methodologies, this collection of articles provides valuable information on various aspects of SW vulnerability. All articles relied on geographic information systems technology, with highly variable levels of complexity. Agricultural articles used National Agricultural Statistics Service data, either as tabular county level summaries or through the CropScape cropland raster datasets. Most relied on modeled historic and future climate information, but with differing assumptions regarding spatial resolution and temporal framework. We assert that it is essential to evaluate climate risk using a variety of complementary methodologies and perspectives. In addition, we found that spatial analysis supports informed adaptation, within and outside the SW United States. The persistence and adaptive capacity of agriculture in the water-limited Southwest serves as an instructive example and may offer solutions to reduce future climate risk.

The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 1: Physical-environmental assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronco, P.; Gallina, V.; Torresan, S.; Zabeo, A.; Semenzin, E.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

2014-12-01

In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazards has increased, and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade, causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing in frequency as a consequence of many factors, both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (elements potentially at risk in flood-prone area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the undeniable effect of climate change is projected to strongly modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events at the local, regional and global scale. Within this context, the need for developing effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow one to assess and (possibly) to reduce the flood risks that threatens different relevant receptors becomes urgent. Several methodologies to assess the risk posed by water-related natural hazards have been proposed so far, but very few of them can be adopted to implement the last European Flood Directive (FD). This paper is intended to introduce and present a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to appraise the risk posed by floods from a physical-environmental perspective. The methodology, developed within the recently completed FP7-KULTURisk Project (Knowledge-based approach to develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention - KR) is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. plain rivers, mountain torrents, urban and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from catchment to the urban scale). The FD compliant KR-RRA methodology is based on the concept of risk being function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It integrates the outputs of various hydrodynamic models with site-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope, land cover, population density, economic activities etc.) to develop tailored risk indexes and GIS-based maps for each of the selected receptors (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructure, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritage) in the considered region. It further compares the baseline scenario with alternative scenarios, where different structural and/or non-structural mitigation measures are planned and eventually implemented. As demonstrated in the companion paper (Part 2, Ronco et al., 2014), risk maps, along with related statistics, allow one to identify and classify, on a relative scale, areas at risk which are more likely to be affected by floods and support the development of strategic adaptation and prevention measures to minimizing flood impacts. In addition, the outcomes of the RRA can be eventually used for a further socio-economic assessment, considering the tangible and intangible costs as well as the human dimension of vulnerability.

Proposal and application of a regional methodology of comparative risk assessment for potentially contaminated sites.

PubMed

Marzocchini, Manrico; Tatàno, Fabio; Moretti, Michela Simona; Antinori, Caterina; Orilisi, Stefano

2018-06-05

A possible approach for determining soil and groundwater quality criteria for contaminated sites is the comparative risk assessment. Originating from but not limited to Italian interest in a decentralised (regional) implementation of comparative risk assessment, this paper first addresses the proposal of an original methodology called CORIAN REG-M , which was created with initial attention to the context of potentially contaminated sites in the Marche Region (Central Italy). To deepen the technical-scientific knowledge and applicability of the comparative risk assessment, the following characteristics of the CORIAN REG-M methodology appear to be relevant: the simplified but logical assumption of three categories of factors (source and transfer/transport of potential contamination, and impacted receptors) within each exposure pathway; the adaptation to quality and quantity of data that are available or derivable at the given scale of concern; the attention to a reliable but unsophisticated modelling; the achievement of a conceptual linkage to the absolute risk assessment approach; and the potential for easy updating and/or refining of the methodology. Further, the application of the CORIAN REG-M methodology to some case-study sites located in the Marche Region indicated the following: a positive correlation can be expected between air and direct contact pathway scores, as well as between individual pathway scores and the overall site scores based on a root-mean-square algorithm; the exposure pathway, which presents the highest variability of scores, tends to be dominant at sites with the highest computed overall site scores; and the adoption of a root-mean-square algorithm can be expected to emphasise the overall site scoring.

A risk assessment framework for irrigated agriculture under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronco, P.; Zennaro, F.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Santini, M.; Trabucco, A.; Zollo, A. L.; Galluccio, G.; Marcomini, A.

2017-12-01

In several regions, but especially in semi-arid areas, raising frequency, duration and intensity of drought events, mainly driven by climate change dynamics, are expected to dramatically reduce the current stocks of freshwater resources, limiting crop development and yield especially where agriculture largely depends on irrigation. The achievement of an affordable and sustainable equilibrium between available water resources and irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. The present study proposed a state-of-the art conceptual framework and computational methodology to assess the potential water scarcity risk, due to changes in climate trends and variability, on irrigated croplands. The model has been tested over the irrigated agriculture of Puglia Region, a semi-arid territory with the largest agricultural production in Southern Italy. The methodology, based on the Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) approach, has been applied within a scenario-based hazard framework. Regional climate projections, under alternative greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and for two different timeframes, 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 compared to the baseline 1976-2005 period, have been used to drive hydrological simulations of river inflow to the most important reservoirs serving irrigation purposes in Puglia. The novelty of the proposed RRA-based approach does not simply rely on the concept of risk as combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, but rather elaborates detailed (scientific and conceptual) framing and computational description of these factors, to produce risk spatial pattern maps and related statistics distinguishing the most critical areas (risk hot spots).. The application supported the identification of the most affected areas (i.e. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia under RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario), crops (fruit trees and vineyards), and, finally, the vulnerability pattern of irrigation systems and networks. The implemented assessment singled out future perspectives of water scarcity risk levels for irrigated agriculture by the administrative extent where individual bodies are in charge of the coordination of public and private irrigation activities (i.e. Reclamation Consortia). Based on the outcomes of the proposed methodology, tailored and knowledge-based adaptation strategies and related actions can be developed, to reduce the risk at both agronomic level (i.e. preferring crops with low vulnerability score, as olive groves) and at structural level (i.e. differentiating the water stocks and supplies and reducing losses and inefficiencies).

A methodology for estimating risks associated with landslides of contaminated soil into rivers.

PubMed

Göransson, Gunnel; Norrman, Jenny; Larson, Magnus; Alén, Claes; Rosén, Lars

2014-02-15

Urban areas adjacent to surface water are exposed to soil movements such as erosion and slope failures (landslides). A landslide is a potential mechanism for mobilisation and spreading of pollutants. This mechanism is in general not included in environmental risk assessments for contaminated sites, and the consequences associated with contamination in the soil are typically not considered in landslide risk assessments. This study suggests a methodology to estimate the environmental risks associated with landslides in contaminated sites adjacent to rivers. The methodology is probabilistic and allows for datasets with large uncertainties and the use of expert judgements, providing quantitative estimates of probabilities for defined failures. The approach is illustrated by a case study along the river Göta Älv, Sweden, where failures are defined and probabilities for those failures are estimated. Failures are defined from a pollution perspective and in terms of exceeding environmental quality standards (EQSs) and acceptable contaminant loads. Models are then suggested to estimate probabilities of these failures. A landslide analysis is carried out to assess landslide probabilities based on data from a recent landslide risk classification study along the river Göta Älv. The suggested methodology is meant to be a supplement to either landslide risk assessment (LRA) or environmental risk assessment (ERA), providing quantitative estimates of the risks associated with landslide in contaminated sites. The proposed methodology can also act as a basis for communication and discussion, thereby contributing to intersectoral management solutions. From the case study it was found that the defined failures are governed primarily by the probability of a landslide occurring. The overall probabilities for failure are low; however, if a landslide occurs the probabilities of exceeding EQS are high and the probability of having at least a 10% increase in the contamination load within one year is also high. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Carbon dioxide removal and tradeable put options at scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockley, Andrew; Coffman, D.’Maris

2018-05-01

Options are derivative contracts that give the purchaser the right to buy (call options) or sell (put options) a given underlying asset at a particular price at a future date. The purchaser of a put option may exercise the right to sell the asset to the issuer at any point in the future before the expiration of the contract. These rights may be contracted directly between two parties (i.e. over-the-counter), or may be sold publicly on formal exchanges, such as the Chicago Board Options Exchange. If the latter, they are called tradeable put options (TPOs) because they can be bought and sold by third-parties via a secondary market. The World Bank has a Pilot Auction Facility for methane and carbon mediation which uses TPOs in carbon-relevant markets, giving producers (of e.g. forest restoration) a floor price for their product [1]. This enables long-term producer planning. We discuss the potentially broader use of these options contracts in carbon dioxide removal (CDR) markets generally and at scale. We conclude that they can, if priced correctly, encourage rapid investment both in CDR technology and in operational capacity. TPOs could do this without creating the same type of systemic risk associated with other instruments (e.g. long-dated futures). Nevertheless, the widespread use of such instruments potentially creates novel risks. These include the political risk of premature closure [2] (conventionally rendered as ‘counting your chickens before they are hatched’) and the economic risk of overpaying for carbon removal services. These instruments require careful structuring, and do not inoculate the CDR market against regulatory disruption, or political pressure. Accordingly, we note the potential for the development of TPO markets in CDR, but we urge caution in respect of identified risks.

Use of Guidelines for Reducing Stroke Risk in Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation: A Review From a Latin American Perspective

PubMed Central

Silva, Gisele Sampaio; Ameriso, Sebastián F.

2017-01-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a prominent risk factor for stroke and a leading cause of death and disability throughout Latin America. Contemporary evidence-based guidelines for the management of AF and stroke incorporate the use of practical and relatively simple scoring methods to estimate both stroke and bleeding risk, in order to assist in matching patients with appropriate interventions. This review examines consistencies and differences among guidelines for reducing stroke risk in patients with AF, assessing the role of user-friendly scoring methods to determine appropriate patients for anticoagulation and other treatment options. Current options include warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants such as dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, and edoxaban. These agents have been found to be superior or noninferior to standard vitamin K antagonist anticoagulation in large randomized trials. Potential benefits of these agents mainly include lower ischemic stroke rates, reduced intracranial bleeding, no need for regular monitoring, and fewer drug–drug and drug–food interactions. Expert opinions regarding clinical situations for which data are presently lacking, such as emergency bleeding and stroke in anticoagulated patients, are also provided. Enhanced attention and adherence to evidence-based guidelines are essential components for a strategy to reduce stroke morbidity and mortality across Latin America. PMID:28992764

Aircraft wing weight build-up methodology with modification for materials and construction techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

York, P.; Labell, R. W.

1980-01-01

An aircraft wing weight estimating method based on a component buildup technique is described. A simplified analytically derived beam model, modified by a regression analysis, is used to estimate the wing box weight, utilizing a data base of 50 actual airplane wing weights. Factors representing materials and methods of construction were derived and incorporated into the basic wing box equations. Weight penalties to the wing box for fuel, engines, landing gear, stores and fold or pivot are also included. Methods for estimating the weight of additional items (secondary structure, control surfaces) have the option of using details available at the design stage (i.e., wing box area, flap area) or default values based on actual aircraft from the data base.

Municipal solid waste management health risk assessment from air emissions for China by applying life cycle analysis.

PubMed

Li, Hua; Nitivattananon, Vilas; Li, Peng

2015-05-01

This study is to quantify and objectively evaluate the extent of environmental health risks from three waste treatment options suggested by the national municipal solid waste management enhancing strategy (No [2011] 9 of the State Council, promulgated on 19 April 2011), which includes sanitary landfill, waste-to-energy incineration and compost, together with the material recovery facility through a case study in Zhangqiu City of China. It addresses potential chronic health risks from air emissions to residential receptors in the impacted area. It combines field survey, analogue survey, design documents and life cycle inventory methods in defining the source strength of chemicals of potential concern. The modelling of life cycle inventory and air dispersion is via integrated waste management(IWM)-2 and Screening Air Dispersion Model (Version 3.0) (SCREEN3). The health risk assessment is in accordance with United States Environmental Protection Agency guidance Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS), Volume I: Human Health Evaluation Manual (Part F, Supplemental Guidance for Inhalation Risk Assessment). The exposure concentration is based on long-term exposure to the maximum ground level contaminant in air under the 'reasonable worst situation' emissions and then directly compared with reference for concentration and unit risk factor/cancer slope factor derived from the national air quality standard (for a conventional pollutant) and toxicological studies (for a specific pollutant). Results from this study suggest that the option of compost with material recovery facility treatment may pose less negative health impacts than other options; the sensitivity analysis shows that the landfill integrated waste management collection rate has a great influence on the impact results. Further investigation is needed to validate or challenge the findings of this study. © The Author(s) 2015.

Effects of context on risk taking and decision times in obsessive-compulsive disorder.

PubMed

Sip, Kamila E; Muratore, Alexandra F; Stern, Emily R

2016-04-01

Despite the fact that OCD patients show altered decision making in everyday life, few studies have investigated how patients make risky decisions and what contextual factors impact choices. We investigated cognitive context with the use of the "framing effect" task, which investigates decision making based on whether monetarily equivalent choice options are framed in terms of a potential to either lose (lose $20 out of $50) or gain (gain $30 out of $50) money. In addition, we manipulated social context by providing positive or neutral feedback on subjects' choices. Overall, participants were risk taking for options framed in terms of potential loss and risk averse for options framed in terms of potential gain (the classic framing effect). Although OCD patients were generally more risk averse, the effect of the frame on choices did not differ significantly from healthy participants and choices were not impacted by social context. Within OCD patients, greater self-reported indecisiveness was associated with a larger effect of the frame on choices. OCD patients were also significantly slower to make choices in the loss compared to gain frame, an effect that was not observed among healthy participants. Overall, our results suggest that the framing of choice options has a differential effect on decision times but not the actual choices made by OCD patients, and that patients are not sensitive to social feedback when making choices. The correlation between indecisiveness and the framing effect in OCD suggests that further work interrogating the relationship between specific symptoms and decision making among patients may yield new insights into the disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Case Studies in Describing Scientific Research Efforts as Linked Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gandara, A.; Villanueva-Rosales, N.; Gates, A.

2013-12-01

The Web is growing with numerous scientific resources, prompting increased efforts in information management to consider integration and exchange of scientific resources. Scientists have many options to share scientific resources on the Web; however, existing options provide limited support to scientists in annotating and relating research resources resulting from a scientific research effort. Moreover, there is no systematic approach to documenting scientific research and sharing it on the Web. This research proposes the Collect-Annotate-Refine-Publish (CARP) Methodology as an approach for guiding documentation of scientific research on the Semantic Web as scientific collections. Scientific collections are structured descriptions about scientific research that make scientific results accessible based on context. In addition, scientific collections enhance the Linked Data data space and can be queried by machines. Three case studies were conducted on research efforts at the Cyber-ShARE Research Center of Excellence in order to assess the effectiveness of the methodology to create scientific collections. The case studies exposed the challenges and benefits of leveraging the Semantic Web and Linked Data data space to facilitate access, integration and processing of Web-accessible scientific resources and research documentation. As such, we present the case study findings and lessons learned in documenting scientific research using CARP.

Contemporary outcomes for carotid endarterectomy at a large community-based academic health center.

PubMed

Long, Graham W; Nuthakki, Vijay; Bove, Paul G; Brown, O William; Shanley, Charles J; Bendick, Phillip J; Rimar, Steven; Kitzmiller, John; Zelenock, Gerald B

2007-05-01

The North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial (NASCET) and Asymptomatic Carotid Atherosclerosis Study (ACAS) demonstrated the efficacy of carotid endarterectomy (CEA), but these studies were published 15 and 11 years ago, respectively. We hypothesized that present clinical results of CEA have improved compared with those reported by NASCET/ACAS. Every patient having CEA from January 1999 through December 2003 was reviewed as part of a continuous quality-assurance program. Patient demographics and risk factors were recorded; high-risk patients were identified using inclusion criteria for high-risk carotid stent trials. Primary end points recorded were all neurologic events, deaths, and myocardial infarctions (MIs). Outcomes were reported individually or as combined neurologic events and deaths (traditional NASCET/ACAS methodology) and, similar to recent carotid stent trials, individually, combined, and as a composite that included MI. A total of 1,927 CEAs were performed, 1,140 in men (59%) and 787 in women (41%). The average age was 72 +/- 9 years; 21% of patients were age 80 or older. Symptomatic patients accounted for 717 procedures (37%). Perioperative neurologic event, death, and MI occurred in 1.0%, 0.5%, and 1.3% of patients, respectively. The combined neurologic event and death rate was 1.3% (symptomatic = 1.8%, asymptomatic = 1.1%). High-risk patients comprised 54% of the cohort; the neurologic event and death rate for this group was 1.6%. The composite end point including MI was 3.4%. Severe coronary artery disease and prior ipsilateral CEA significantly correlated with a higher incidence of primary end point complications. In contemporary practice, the perioperative neurologic event rate is significantly less than reported in NASCET/ACAS. Perioperative death and MI rates were similar to those seen in NASCET/ACAS. Neurologic events and death rates were not different between high- and low-risk groups. These data may serve as a guide for the modern vascular specialist weighing open and endovascular options for treatment of carotid artery occlusive disease in both high- and low-risk patients.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database Mortality Risk Model: Part 1—Statistical Methodology

PubMed Central

O’Brien, Sean M.; Jacobs, Jeffrey P.; Pasquali, Sara K.; Gaynor, J. William; Karamlou, Tara; Welke, Karl F.; Filardo, Giovanni; Han, Jane M.; Kim, Sunghee; Shahian, David M.; Jacobs, Marshall L.

2016-01-01

Background This study’s objective was to develop a risk model incorporating procedure type and patient factors to be used for case-mix adjustment in the analysis of hospital-specific operative mortality rates after congenital cardiac operations. Methods Included were patients of all ages undergoing cardiac operations, with or without cardiopulmonary bypass, at centers participating in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database during January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2013. Excluded were isolated patent ductus arteriosus closures in patients weighing less than or equal to 2.5 kg, centers with more than 10% missing data, and patients with missing data for key variables. Data from the first 3.5 years were used for model development, and data from the last 0.5 year were used for assessing model discrimination and calibration. Potential risk factors were proposed based on expert consensus and selected after empirically comparing a variety of modeling options. Results The study cohort included 52,224 patients from 86 centers with 1,931 deaths (3.7%). Covariates included in the model were primary procedure, age, weight, and 11 additional patient factors reflecting acuity status and comorbidities. The C statistic in the validation sample was 0.858. Plots of observed-vs-expected mortality rates revealed good calibration overall and within subgroups, except for a slight overestimation of risk in the highest decile of predicted risk. Removing patient preoperative factors from the model reduced the C statistic to 0.831 and affected the performance classification for 12 of 86 hospitals. Conclusions The risk model is well suited to adjust for case mix in the analysis and reporting of hospital-specific mortality for congenital heart operations. Inclusion of patient factors added useful discriminatory power and reduced bias in the calculation of hospital-specific mortality metrics. PMID:26245502

Designing and operating infrastructure for nonstationary flood risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doss-Gollin, J.; Farnham, D. J.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

Climate exhibits organized low-frequency and regime-like variability at multiple time scales, causing the risk associated with climate extremes such as floods and droughts to vary in time. Despite broad recognition of this nonstationarity, there has been little theoretical development of ideas for the design and operation of infrastructure considering the regime structure of such changes and their potential predictability. We use paleo streamflow reconstructions to illustrate an approach to the design and operation of infrastructure to address nonstationary flood and drought risk. Specifically, we consider the tradeoff between flood control and conservation storage, and develop design and operation principles for allocating these storage volumes considering both a m-year project planning period and a n-year historical sampling record. As n increases, the potential uncertainty in probabilistic estimates of the return periods associated with the T-year extreme event decreases. As the duration m of the future operation period decreases, the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of the T-year event also increases. Finally, given the quasi-periodic nature of the system it may be possible to offer probabilistic predictions of the conditions in the m-year future period, especially if m is small. In the context of such predictions, one can consider that a m-year prediction may have lower bias, but higher variance, than would be associated with using a stationary estimate from the preceding n years. This bias-variance trade-off, and the potential for considering risk management for multiple values of m, provides an interesting system design challenge. We use wavelet-based simulation models in a Bayesian framework to estimate these biases and uncertainty distributions and devise a risk-optimized decision rule for the allocation of flood and conservation storage. The associated theoretical development also provides a methodology for the sizing of storage for new infrastructure under nonstationarity, and an examination of risk adaptation measures which consider both short term and long term options simultaneously.

Poststernotomy mediastinitis: a classification to initiate and evaluate reconstructive management based on evidence from a structured review.

PubMed

van Wingerden, Jan J; Ubbink, Dirk T; van der Horst, Chantal M A M; de Mol, Bas A J M

2014-11-23

Early recognition and, where possible, avoidance of risk factors that contribute to the development of poststernotomy mediastinitis (PSM) form the basis for successful prevention. Once the presence of PSM is diagnosed, the known risk factors have been shown to have limited influence on management decisions. Evidence-based knowledge on treatment decisions, which include the extent and type of surgical intervention (other than debridement), timing and others is available but has not yet been incorporated into a classification on management decisions regarding PSM. Ours is a first attempt at developing a classification system for management of PSM, taking the various evidence-based reconstructive options into consideration. The classification is simple to introduce (there are four Types) and relies on the careful establishment of two variables (sternal stability and sternal bone viability and stock) prior to deciding on the best available reconstructive option. It should allow better insight into why treatment decisions fail or have to be altered and will allow better comparison of treatment outcomes between various institutions.

Decision-making under risk in children, adolescents, and young adults.

PubMed

Paulsen, David J; Platt, Michael L; Huettel, Scott A; Brannon, Elizabeth M

2011-01-01

Adolescents often make risky and impulsive decisions. Such behavior has led to the common assumption that a dysfunction in risk-related decision-making peaks during this age. Differences in how risk has been defined across studies, however, make it difficult to draw conclusions about developmental changes in risky decision-making. Here, we developed a non-symbolic economic decision-making task that can be used across a wide age span and that uses coefficient of variation (CV) in reward as an index of risk. We found that young children showed the strongest preference for risky compared to sure bet options of equal expected value, adolescents were intermediate in their risk preference, and young adults showed the strongest risk aversion. Furthermore, children's preference for the risky option increased for larger CVs, while adolescents and young adults showed the opposite pattern, favoring the sure bet more often as CV increased. Finally, when faced with two gambles in a risk-return tradeoff, all three age groups exhibited a greater preference for the option with the lower risk and return as the disparity in risk between the two options increased. These findings demonstrate clear age-related differences in economic risk preferences that vary with choice set and risk. Importantly, adolescence appears to represent an intermediate decision-making phenotype along the transition from childhood to adulthood, rather than an age of heightened preference for economic risk.

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different stages of the multi-risk assessment process (i.e. identification of objectives, collection of data, definition of risk thresholds and indicators). The results of the assessment will allow the development of multi-risk scenarios enabling the evaluation and prioritization of risk management and adaptation options under changing climate conditions.

Treatment Options to Manage Wound Biofilm

PubMed Central

Jones, Curtis E.; Kennedy, John P.

2012-01-01

Background Bioburden is an accepted barrier to chronic wound healing. Defining the significance, phenotype, clinical classification, and treatment guidelines has been historically lacking of evidence and based on paradigms that do not represent the scientific or clinical reality. The Problem Chronic wound bioburden is typically abundant, polymicrobial, and extremely diverse. These microbes naturally adopt biofilm phenotypes, which are quite often viable but not culturable, thereby going undetected. The failures of culture-based detection have led to abandonment of routine bioburden evaluation and aggressive treatment or, worse, to assume bioburden is not a significant barrier. Predictably, treatment regimens to address biofilm phenotypes lagged behind our diagnostic tools and understanding. Basic/Clinical Science Advances Microbial DNA-based diagnostic tools and treatment regimens have emerged, which provide and leverage objective information, resulting in a dramatic impact on outcomes. Relevance to Clinical Care Modern medicine demands decisions based on objective evidence. The diagnostic and treatment protocols reviewed herein empower clinicians to practice modern medicine with regard to bioburden, with DNA level certainty. Conclusion Bioburden is a significant barrier to healing for all chronic wounds. Molecular diagnostics provide the first objective means of assessing wound bioburden. The accuracy and comprehensive data from such diagnostic methodologies provide clinicians with the ability to employ patient-specific treatment options, targeted to each patient's microbial wound census. Based on current outcomes data, the most effective therapeutic options are topical (TPL) antibiofilm agents (ABF) combined with TPL antibiotics (ABX). In specific patients, systemic ABX and selective biocides are also appropriate, but not exclusive of ABF combined with TPL ABX. PMID:24527291

Toward the Development of Integrative Risk-Adjusted Measures of Quality Using Large Clinical Data Bases: The Case of Anesthesia Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fleming, Steven T.

1992-01-01

The concept of risk-adjusted measures of quality is discussed, and a methodology is proposed for risk-adjusting and integrating multiple adverse outcomes of anesthesia services into measures for quality assurance and quality improvement programs. Although designed for a new anesthesiology database, the methods should apply to other health…

Country-level assessment of future risk of water scarcity in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, Luis; Iglesias, Ana; Granados, Alfredo

2018-06-01

A methodology for regional assessment of current and future water availability in Europe is presented in this study. The methodology is based on a proposed indicator of risk of water scarcity based on the projections of runoff and water availability for European countries. The risk of water scarcity is the combined result of hydrological processes, which determine streamflow in natural conditions, and human intervention, which determines water management using the available hydraulic infrastructure and establishes water supply conditions through operating rules. Model results show that changes in runoff and availability obtained for individual GCM projections can be large and even contradictory. These heterogeneous results are summarized in the water scarcity risk index, a global value that accounts for the results obtained with the ensemble of model results and emission scenarios. The countries at larger risk are (in this order) Spain, Portugal, Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, France and Italy. They are mostly Mediterranean countries already exposed to significant water scarcity problems. There are countries, like Slovakia, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Croatia and Romania, with mild risk. Northern Arctic countries, like Sweden, Finland, Norway and Russia, show a robust however mild increase in water availability.

Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titarenko, Boris

2017-10-01

The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

Torsional Ultrasound Sensor Optimization for Soft Tissue Characterization

PubMed Central

Melchor, Juan; Muñoz, Rafael; Rus, Guillermo

2017-01-01

Torsion mechanical waves have the capability to characterize shear stiffness moduli of soft tissue. Under this hypothesis, a computational methodology is proposed to design and optimize a piezoelectrics-based transmitter and receiver to generate and measure the response of torsional ultrasonic waves. The procedure employed is divided into two steps: (i) a finite element method (FEM) is developed to obtain a transmitted and received waveform as well as a resonance frequency of a previous geometry validated with a semi-analytical simplified model and (ii) a probabilistic optimality criteria of the design based on inverse problem from the estimation of robust probability of detection (RPOD) to maximize the detection of the pathology defined in terms of changes of shear stiffness. This study collects different options of design in two separated models, in transmission and contact, respectively. The main contribution of this work describes a framework to establish such as forward, inverse and optimization procedures to choose a set of appropriate parameters of a transducer. This methodological framework may be generalizable for other different applications. PMID:28617353

TAILORx Trial Shows Some Women with Breast Cancer May Forgo Chemotherapy

Cancer.gov

A summary of results from the Trial Assigning Individualized Options for Treatment, or TAILORx, finds that women with early-stage hormone receptor-positive breast cancer have a low risk of recurrence based on a test for the expression of 21 genes.

Preeradication vaccine policy options for poliovirus infection and disease control.

PubMed

Thompson, Kimberly M; Pallansch, Mark A; Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Wassilak, Steve G; Kim, Jong-Hoon; Cochi, Stephen L

2013-04-01

With the circulation of wild poliovirus (WPV) types 1 and 3 continuing more than a decade after the original goal of eradicating all three types of WPVs by 2000, policymakers consider many immunization options as they strive to stop transmission in the remaining endemic and outbreak areas and prevent reintroductions of live polioviruses into nonendemic areas. While polio vaccination choices may appear simple, our analysis of current options shows remarkable complexity. We offer important context for current and future polio vaccine decisions and policy analyses by developing decision trees that clearly identify potential options currently used by countries as they evaluate national polio vaccine choices. Based on a comprehensive review of the literature we (1) identify the current vaccination options that national health leaders consider for polio vaccination, (2) characterize current practices and factors that appear to influence national and international choices, and (3) assess the evidence of vaccine effectiveness considering sources of variability between countries and uncertainties associated with limitations of the data. With low numbers of cases occurring globally, the management of polio risks might seem like a relatively low priority, but stopping live poliovirus circulation requires making proactive and intentional choices to manage population immunity in the remaining endemic areas and to prevent reestablishment in nonendemic areas. Our analysis shows remarkable variability in the current national polio vaccine product choices and schedules, with combination vaccine options containing inactivated poliovirus vaccine and different formulations of oral poliovirus vaccine making choices increasingly difficult for national health leaders. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk Mapping Case Study: Industrial Area Of Trinec Town (Czech Republic) potentially endangered by floods and landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobes, P.; Hrdina, P.; Kotatko, A.; Danihelka, P.; Bednarik, M.; Krejci, O.; Kasperakova, D.

2009-04-01

One of present questions in the context of natural and technological risk mapping, which become important in last years, is analysis and assessment of selected types of multirisks. It results from relevant R&D projetcs and also from international workshops and conferences. From various surveys and presented activities it is evident existence a lot of data and methodological approaches for single risk categories but a lack of tested methodological approaches for multirisks. Within framework of workgroup was done literature search of multirisk assessment methodologies and innovations. The idea of this relatively small, local scale case study arose during the 3rd Risk Mapping Workshop, coordinated by EC DG JRC, IPSC in November 2007. The proposal was based on the previous risk analysis and assessment project, which has been done for Frydek-Mistek County area (Czech Republic) in the year 2002. Several industrial facilities in the Trinec are partly situated in the inundation area of river Olše and are partly protected by concrete barriers built on the banks of Olše. It has to be mentioned that these banks are unstable and in the permanent slow movement. If iron-concrete barriers will be overflowed by water as the result of sudden bank landslide or flood wave, it could trigger several industrial accidents on steel and energy production facilities. Area is highly developed from demographic and socioeconomic point of view. Selected area is in high stage of geological, engineering geological and hydrogeological investigation. Most important scenarios of acidents in the area were developed by What-If analysis and Black box analysis (just growth of several different scenarios; qualitative analysis). In the period of few years later, more QRA analyses of industrial risks were proceeded separately, thanks to District Office, public and Seveso II Directive requirements. General scenarios of multi-hazard events was considered. In the case study, three methodologies was applied to assess hazard and risk: qualitative approach based on German methodology of Risk matrix compilation; quantitative approach based on statistical methods previously used for the area between two towns Hlohovec and Sered in Slovakia; quantitative approach for the modelling of the floods on the river Olse based on model HEC-RAS. For evaluation of selected scenarios impacts to the facilities and also to the public, including evaluation of present barriers, was used also method of expert assesment. With regard to the preliminary results it could be estimated, that flooding of industrial facilities is less probable due to existing barriers, but several usefull recomendations for similar prone areas could be derived. Acknowledgements This work is partially supported by the Czech Ministry of the Evnironment in the frame of R&D project "Comprehensive Interactions between Natural Processes and Industry with Regard to Major Accident Prevention and Emergency Planning" (Registration Number: SPII 1a10 45/07).

Research on Agricultural Product Options Pricing Based on Lévy Copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Hong

2017-11-01

China is a large agricultural country, and the healthy development of agriculture is related to the stability of the whole society. With the advancement of modern agriculture and the expansion of agricultural scale, the demand for farmers to avoid market risks is increasingly urgent. Option trading has the effect of attracting farmers’ intervention, promoting order agriculture development, perfecting agricultural support policy and promoting the development of agricultural futures market. Relative to the futures, the option transaction because the margin is low, reducing the trader’s entry threshold, you can make more small and medium investors to participate. This is not only active in the futures market, but also for many small and medium investors to provide effective financial management tools.

Risk assessments for mixtures: technical methods commonly used in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

A brief (20 minute) talk on the technical approaches used by EPA and other US agencies to assess risks posed by combined exposures to one or more chemicals. The talk systemically reviews the methodologies (whole-mixtures and component-based approaches) that are or have been used ...

Using landslide risk analysis to protect fish habitat

Treesearch

R. M. Rice

1986-01-01

The protection of anadromous fish habitat is an important water quslity concern in the Pacific Northwest. Sediment from logging-related debris avalanches can cause habitat degradation. Research on conditions associated with the sites where debris avalanches originate has resulted in a risk assessment methodology based on linear discriminant analysis. The probability...

Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation ofmore » the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.« less

Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Ning

Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is developed based on the theory of Poisson random measure, substantiated by a large amount of empirical data. An advanced vulnerability assessment methodology is then developed, by integrating this debris risk model and a component-based pressure damage model, to predict storm-specific or annual damage to coastal residential neighborhoods. The uniqueness of this vulnerability model lies in its detailed description of the interaction between wind pressure and windborne debris effects over periods of strong winds, which is a major mechanism leading to structural failures during hurricanes.

MDRC's Approach to Using Predictive Analytics to Improve and Target Social Services Based on Risk. Reflections on Methodology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Porter, Kristin E.; Balu, Rekha; Hendra, Richard

2017-01-01

This post is one in a series highlighting MDRC's methodological work. Contributors discuss the refinement and practical use of research methods being employed across the organization. Across policy domains, practitioners and researchers are benefiting from a trend of greater access to both more detailed and frequent data and the increased…

46 CFR 308.520 - Standard optional endorsement No. 3, Form MA-300-C.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

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46 CFR 308.519 - Standard optional endorsement No. 2, Form MA-300-B.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

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46 CFR 308.546 - Standard optional endorsement No. 1-A, Form MA-316-A.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

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46 CFR 308.518 - Standard optional endorsement No. 1, Form MA-300-A.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

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Space station data system analysis/architecture study. Task 2: Options development DR-5. Volume 1: Technology options

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

The second task in the Space Station Data System (SSDS) Analysis/Architecture Study is the development of an information base that will support the conduct of trade studies and provide sufficient data to make key design/programmatic decisions. This volume identifies the preferred options in the technology category and characterizes these options with respect to performance attributes, constraints, cost, and risk. The technology category includes advanced materials, processes, and techniques that can be used to enhance the implementation of SSDS design structures. The specific areas discussed are mass storage, including space and round on-line storage and off-line storage; man/machine interface; data processing hardware, including flight computers and advanced/fault tolerant computer architectures; and software, including data compression algorithms, on-board high level languages, and software tools. Also discussed are artificial intelligence applications and hard-wire communications.

When all seems lost: management of refractory constipation-Surgery, rectal irrigation, percutaneous endoscopic colostomy, and more.

PubMed

Wilkinson-Smith, V; Bharucha, A E; Emmanuel, A; Knowles, C; Yiannakou, Y; Corsetti, M

2018-05-01

While the pharmacological armamentarium for chronic constipation has expanded over the past few years, a substantial proportion of constipated patients do not respond to these medications. This review summarizes the pharmacological and behavioral options for managing constipation and details the management of refractory constipation. Refractory constipation is defined as an inadequate improvement in constipation symptoms evaluated with an objective scale despite adequate therapy (ie, pharmacological and/or behavioral) that is based on the underlying pathophysiology of constipation. Minimally invasive (ie, rectal irrigation and percutaneous endoscopic colostomy) and surgical therapies are used to manage refractory constipation. This review appraises these options, and in particular, percutaneous endoscopic colostomy, which as detailed by an article in this issue, is a less invasive option for managing refractory constipation than surgery. While these options benefit some patients, the evidence of the risk: benefit profile for these therapies is limited. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk Segmentation Related to the Offering of a Consumer-Directed Health Plan: A Case Study of Humana Inc.

PubMed Central

Tollen, Laura A; Ross, Murray N; Poor, Stephen

2004-01-01

Objective To determine whether the offering of a consumer-directed health plan (CDHP) is likely to cause risk segmentation in an employer group. Study Setting and Data Source The study population comprises the approximately 10,000 people (employees and dependents) enrolled as members of the employee health benefit program of Humana Inc. at its headquarters in Louisville, Kentucky, during the benefit years starting July 1, 2000, and July 1, 2001. This analysis is based on primary collection of claims, enrollment, and employment data for those employees and dependents. Study Design This is a case study of the experience of a single employer in offering two consumer-directed health plan options (“Coverage First 1” and “Coverage First 2”) to its employees. We assessed the risk profile of those choosing the Coverage First plans and those remaining in more traditional health maintenance organization (HMO) and preferred provider organization (PPO) coverage. Risk was measured using prior claims (in dollars per member per month), prior utilization (admissions/1,000; average length of stay; prescriptions/1,000; physician office visit services/1,000), a pharmacy-based risk assessment tool (developed by Ingenix), and demographics. Data Collection/Extraction Methods Complete claims and administrative data were provided by Humana Inc. for the two-year study period. Unique identifiers enabled us to track subscribers' individual enrollment and utilization over this period. Principal Findings Based on demographic data alone, there did not appear to be a difference in the risk profiles of those choosing versus not choosing Coverage First. However, based on prior claims and prior use data, it appeared that those who chose Coverage First were healthier than those electing to remain in more traditional coverage. For each of five services, prior-year usage by people who subsequently enrolled in Coverage First 1 (CF1) was below 60 percent of the average for the whole group. Hospital and maternity admissions per thousand were less than 30 percent of the overall average; length of stay per hospital admission, physician office services per thousand, and prescriptions per thousand were all between 50 and 60 percent of the overall average. Coverage First 2 (CF2) subscribers' prior use of services was somewhat higher than CF1 subscribers', but it was still below average in every category. As with prior use, prior claims data indicated that Coverage First subscribers were healthier than average, with prior total claims less than 50 percent of average. Conclusions In this case, the offering of high-deductible or consumer-directed health plan options alongside more traditional options caused risk segmentation within an employer group. The extent to which these findings are applicable to other cases will depend on many factors, including the employer premium contribution policies and employees' perception of the value of the various plan options. Further research is needed to determine whether risk segmentation will worsen in future years for this employer and if so, whether it will cause premiums for more traditional health plans to increase. PMID:15230919

Recommendations for genetic testing to reduce the incidence of anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity.

PubMed

Aminkeng, Folefac; Ross, Colin J D; Rassekh, Shahrad R; Hwang, Soomi; Rieder, Michael J; Bhavsar, Amit P; Smith, Anne; Sanatani, Shubhayan; Gelmon, Karen A; Bernstein, Daniel; Hayden, Michael R; Amstutz, Ursula; Carleton, Bruce C

2016-09-01

Anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity (ACT) occurs in 57% of treated patients and remains an important limitation of anthracycline-based chemotherapy. In various genetic association studies, potential genetic risk markers for ACT have been identified. Therefore, we developed evidence-based clinical practice recommendations for pharmacogenomic testing to further individualize therapy based on ACT risk. We followed a standard guideline development process, including a systematic literature search, evidence synthesis and critical appraisal, and the development of clinical practice recommendations with an international expert group. RARG rs2229774, SLC28A3 rs7853758 and UGT1A6 rs17863783 variants currently have the strongest and the most consistent evidence for association with ACT. Genetic variants in ABCC1, ABCC2, ABCC5, ABCB1, ABCB4, CBR3, RAC2, NCF4, CYBA, GSTP1, CAT, SULT2B1, POR, HAS3, SLC22A7, SCL22A17, HFE and NOS3 have also been associated with ACT, but require additional validation. We recommend pharmacogenomic testing for the RARG rs2229774 (S427L), SLC28A3 rs7853758 (L461L) and UGT1A6*4 rs17863783 (V209V) variants in childhood cancer patients with an indication for doxorubicin or daunorubicin therapy (Level B - moderate). Based on an overall risk stratification, taking into account genetic and clinical risk factors, we recommend a number of management options including increased frequency of echocardiogram monitoring, follow-up, as well as therapeutic options within the current standard of clinical practice. Existing evidence demonstrates that genetic factors have the potential to improve the discrimination between individuals at higher and lower risk of ACT. Genetic testing may therefore support both patient care decisions and evidence development for an improved prevention of ACT. © 2016 The British Pharmacological Society.

Recommendations for genetic testing to reduce the incidence of anthracycline‐induced cardiotoxicity

PubMed Central

Aminkeng, Folefac; Ross, Colin J. D.; Rassekh, Shahrad R.; Hwang, Soomi; Rieder, Michael J.; Bhavsar, Amit P.; Smith, Anne; Sanatani, Shubhayan; Gelmon, Karen A.; Bernstein, Daniel; Hayden, Michael R.; Amstutz, Ursula

2016-01-01

Aims Anthracycline‐induced cardiotoxicity (ACT) occurs in 57% of treated patients and remains an important limitation of anthracycline‐based chemotherapy. In various genetic association studies, potential genetic risk markers for ACT have been identified. Therefore, we developed evidence‐based clinical practice recommendations for pharmacogenomic testing to further individualize therapy based on ACT risk. Methods We followed a standard guideline development process, including a systematic literature search, evidence synthesis and critical appraisal, and the development of clinical practice recommendations with an international expert group. Results RARG rs2229774, SLC28A3 rs7853758 and UGT1A6 rs17863783 variants currently have the strongest and the most consistent evidence for association with ACT. Genetic variants in ABCC1, ABCC2, ABCC5, ABCB1, ABCB4, CBR3, RAC2, NCF4, CYBA, GSTP1, CAT, SULT2B1, POR, HAS3, SLC22A7, SCL22A17, HFE and NOS3 have also been associated with ACT, but require additional validation. We recommend pharmacogenomic testing for the RARG rs2229774 (S427L), SLC28A3 rs7853758 (L461L) and UGT1A6*4 rs17863783 (V209V) variants in childhood cancer patients with an indication for doxorubicin or daunorubicin therapy (Level B – moderate). Based on an overall risk stratification, taking into account genetic and clinical risk factors, we recommend a number of management options including increased frequency of echocardiogram monitoring, follow‐up, as well as therapeutic options within the current standard of clinical practice. Conclusions Existing evidence demonstrates that genetic factors have the potential to improve the discrimination between individuals at higher and lower risk of ACT. Genetic testing may therefore support both patient care decisions and evidence development for an improved prevention of ACT. PMID:27197003