Robust current control-based generalized predictive control with sliding mode disturbance compensation for PMSM drives.

PubMed

Liu, Xudong; Zhang, Chenghui; Li, Ke; Zhang, Qi

2017-11-01

This paper addresses the current control of permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) for electric drives with model uncertainties and disturbances. A generalized predictive current control method combined with sliding mode disturbance compensation is proposed to satisfy the requirement of fast response and strong robustness. Firstly, according to the generalized predictive control (GPC) theory based on the continuous time model, a predictive current control method is presented without considering the disturbance, which is convenient to be realized in the digital controller. In fact, it's difficult to derive the exact motor model and parameters in the practical system. Thus, a sliding mode disturbance compensation controller is studied to improve the adaptiveness and robustness of the control system. The designed controller attempts to combine the merits of both predictive control and sliding mode control, meanwhile, the controller parameters are easy to be adjusted. Lastly, the proposed controller is tested on an interior PMSM by simulation and experiment, and the results indicate that it has good performance in both current tracking and disturbance rejection. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust human body model injury prediction in simulated side impact crashes.

PubMed

Golman, Adam J; Danelson, Kerry A; Stitzel, Joel D

2016-01-01

This study developed a parametric methodology to robustly predict occupant injuries sustained in real-world crashes using a finite element (FE) human body model (HBM). One hundred and twenty near-side impact motor vehicle crashes were simulated over a range of parameters using a Toyota RAV4 (bullet vehicle), Ford Taurus (struck vehicle) FE models and a validated human body model (HBM) Total HUman Model for Safety (THUMS). Three bullet vehicle crash parameters (speed, location and angle) and two occupant parameters (seat position and age) were varied using a Latin hypercube design of Experiments. Four injury metrics (head injury criterion, half deflection, thoracic trauma index and pelvic force) were used to calculate injury risk. Rib fracture prediction and lung strain metrics were also analysed. As hypothesized, bullet speed had the greatest effect on each injury measure. Injury risk was reduced when bullet location was further from the B-pillar or when the bullet angle was more oblique. Age had strong correlation to rib fractures frequency and lung strain severity. The injuries from a real-world crash were predicted using two different methods by (1) subsampling the injury predictors from the 12 best crush profile matching simulations and (2) using regression models. Both injury prediction methods successfully predicted the case occupant's low risk for pelvic injury, high risk for thoracic injury, rib fractures and high lung strains with tight confidence intervals. This parametric methodology was successfully used to explore crash parameter interactions and to robustly predict real-world injuries.

Evaluation of procedures for prediction of unconventional gas in the presence of geologic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.

2009-01-01

This study extends the application of local spatial nonparametric prediction models to the estimation of recoverable gas volumes in continuous-type gas plays to regimes where there is a single geologic trend. A transformation is presented, originally proposed by Tomczak, that offsets the distortions caused by the trend. This article reports on numerical experiments that compare predictive and classification performance of the local nonparametric prediction models based on the transformation with models based on Euclidean distance. The transformation offers improvement in average root mean square error when the trend is not severely misspecified. Because of the local nature of the models, even those based on Euclidean distance in the presence of trends are reasonably robust. The tests based on other model performance metrics such as prediction error associated with the high-grade tracts and the ability of the models to identify sites with the largest gas volumes also demonstrate the robustness of both local modeling approaches. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2009.

Improved design of constrained model predictive tracking control for batch processes against unknown uncertainties.

PubMed

Wu, Sheng; Jin, Qibing; Zhang, Ridong; Zhang, Junfeng; Gao, Furong

2017-07-01

In this paper, an improved constrained tracking control design is proposed for batch processes under uncertainties. A new process model that facilitates process state and tracking error augmentation with further additional tuning is first proposed. Then a subsequent controller design is formulated using robust stable constrained MPC optimization. Unlike conventional robust model predictive control (MPC), the proposed method enables the controller design to bear more degrees of tuning so that improved tracking control can be acquired, which is very important since uncertainties exist inevitably in practice and cause model/plant mismatches. An injection molding process is introduced to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed MPC approach in comparison with conventional robust MPC. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aperiodic Robust Model Predictive Control for Constrained Continuous-Time Nonlinear Systems: An Event-Triggered Approach.

PubMed

Liu, Changxin; Gao, Jian; Li, Huiping; Xu, Demin

2018-05-01

The event-triggered control is a promising solution to cyber-physical systems, such as networked control systems, multiagent systems, and large-scale intelligent systems. In this paper, we propose an event-triggered model predictive control (MPC) scheme for constrained continuous-time nonlinear systems with bounded disturbances. First, a time-varying tightened state constraint is computed to achieve robust constraint satisfaction, and an event-triggered scheduling strategy is designed in the framework of dual-mode MPC. Second, the sufficient conditions for ensuring feasibility and closed-loop robust stability are developed, respectively. We show that robust stability can be ensured and communication load can be reduced with the proposed MPC algorithm. Finally, numerical simulations and comparison studies are performed to verify the theoretical results.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sarovar, Mohan; Zhang, Jun; Zeng, Lishan

Analog quantum simulators (AQS) will likely be the first nontrivial application of quantum technology for predictive simulation. However, there remain questions regarding the degree of confidence that can be placed in the results of AQS since they do not naturally incorporate error correction. Specifically, how do we know whether an analog simulation of a quantum model will produce predictions that agree with the ideal model in the presence of inevitable imperfections? At the same time there is a widely held expectation that certain quantum simulation questions will be robust to errors and perturbations in the underlying hardware. Resolving these twomore » points of view is a critical step in making the most of this promising technology. In this paper we formalize the notion of AQS reliability by determining sensitivity of AQS outputs to underlying parameters, and formulate conditions for robust simulation. Our approach naturally reveals the importance of model symmetries in dictating the robust properties. Finally, to demonstrate the approach, we characterize the robust features of a variety of quantum many-body models.« less

Reliability of analog quantum simulation

DOE PAGES

Sarovar, Mohan; Zhang, Jun; Zeng, Lishan

2017-01-03

Analog quantum simulators (AQS) will likely be the first nontrivial application of quantum technology for predictive simulation. However, there remain questions regarding the degree of confidence that can be placed in the results of AQS since they do not naturally incorporate error correction. Specifically, how do we know whether an analog simulation of a quantum model will produce predictions that agree with the ideal model in the presence of inevitable imperfections? At the same time there is a widely held expectation that certain quantum simulation questions will be robust to errors and perturbations in the underlying hardware. Resolving these twomore » points of view is a critical step in making the most of this promising technology. In this paper we formalize the notion of AQS reliability by determining sensitivity of AQS outputs to underlying parameters, and formulate conditions for robust simulation. Our approach naturally reveals the importance of model symmetries in dictating the robust properties. Finally, to demonstrate the approach, we characterize the robust features of a variety of quantum many-body models.« less

Prediction of beef carcass and meat traits from rearing factors in young bulls and cull cows.

PubMed

Soulat, J; Picard, B; Léger, S; Monteils, V

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to predict the beef carcass and LM (thoracis part) characteristics and the sensory properties of the LM from rearing factors applied during the fattening period. Individual data from 995 animals (688 young bulls and 307 cull cows) in 15 experiments were used to establish prediction models. The data concerned rearing factors (13 variables), carcass characteristics (5 variables), LM characteristics (2 variables), and LM sensory properties (3 variables). In this study, 8 prediction models were established: dressing percentage and the proportions of fat tissue and muscle in the carcass to characterize the beef carcass; cross-sectional area of fibers (mean fiber area) and isocitrate dehydrogenase activity to characterize the LM; and, finally, overall tenderness, juiciness, and flavor intensity scores to characterize the LM sensory properties. A random effect was considered in each model: the breed for the prediction models for the carcass and LM characteristics and the trained taste panel for the prediction of the meat sensory properties. To evaluate the quality of prediction models, 3 criteria were measured: robustness, accuracy, and precision. The model was robust when the root mean square errors of prediction of calibration and validation sub-data sets were near to one another. Except for the mean fiber area model, the obtained predicted models were robust. The prediction models were considered to have a high accuracy when the mean prediction error (MPE) was ≤0.10 and to have a high precision when the was the closest to 1. The prediction of the characteristics of the carcass from the rearing factors had a high precision ( > 0.70) and a high prediction accuracy (MPE < 0.10), except for the fat percentage model ( = 0.67, MPE = 0.16). However, the predictions of the LM characteristics and LM sensory properties from the rearing factors were not sufficiently precise ( < 0.50) and accurate (MPE > 0.10). Only the flavor intensity of the beef score could be satisfactorily predicted from the rearing factors with high precision ( = 0.72) and accuracy (MPE = 0.10). All the prediction models displayed different effects of the rearing factors according to animal categories (young bulls or cull cows). In consequence, these prediction models display the necessary adaption of rearing factors during the fattening period according to animal categories to optimize the carcass traits according to animal categories.

The Robust Learning Model with a Spiral Curriculum: Implications for the Educational Effectiveness of Online Master Degree Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neumann, Yoram; Neumann, Edith; Lewis, Shelia

2017-01-01

This study integrated the Spiral Curriculum approach into the Robust Learning Model as part of a continuous improvement process that was designed to improve educational effectiveness and then assessed the differences between the initial and integrated models as well as the predictability of the first course in the integrated learning model on a…

Robustness of intra urban land-use regression models for ultrafine particles and black carbon based on mobile monitoring.

PubMed

Kerckhoffs, Jules; Hoek, Gerard; Vlaanderen, Jelle; van Nunen, Erik; Messier, Kyle; Brunekreef, Bert; Gulliver, John; Vermeulen, Roel

2017-11-01

Land-use regression (LUR) models for ultrafine particles (UFP) and Black Carbon (BC) in urban areas have been developed using short-term stationary monitoring or mobile platforms in order to capture the high variability of these pollutants. However, little is known about the comparability of predictions of mobile and short-term stationary models and especially the validity of these models for assessing residential exposures and the robustness of model predictions developed in different campaigns. We used an electric car to collect mobile measurements (n = 5236 unique road segments) and short-term stationary measurements (3 × 30min, n = 240) of UFP and BC in three Dutch cities (Amsterdam, Utrecht, Maastricht) in 2014-2015. Predictions of LUR models based on mobile measurements were compared to (i) measured concentrations at the short-term stationary sites, (ii) LUR model predictions based on short-term stationary measurements at 1500 random addresses in the three cities, (iii) externally obtained home outdoor measurements (3 × 24h samples; n = 42) and (iv) predictions of a LUR model developed based upon a 2013 mobile campaign in two cities (Amsterdam, Rotterdam). Despite the poor model R 2 of 15%, the ability of mobile UFP models to predict measurements with longer averaging time increased substantially from 36% for short-term stationary measurements to 57% for home outdoor measurements. In contrast, the mobile BC model only predicted 14% of the variation in the short-term stationary sites and also 14% of the home outdoor sites. Models based upon mobile and short-term stationary monitoring provided fairly high correlated predictions of UFP concentrations at 1500 randomly selected addresses in the three Dutch cities (R 2 = 0.64). We found higher UFP predictions (of about 30%) based on mobile models opposed to short-term model predictions and home outdoor measurements with no clear geospatial patterns. The mobile model for UFP was stable over different settings as the model predicted concentration levels highly correlated to predictions made by a previously developed LUR model with another spatial extent and in a different year at the 1500 random addresses (R 2 = 0.80). In conclusion, mobile monitoring provided robust LUR models for UFP, valid to use in epidemiological studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Robust small area prediction for counts.

PubMed

Tzavidis, Nikos; Ranalli, M Giovanna; Salvati, Nicola; Dreassi, Emanuela; Chambers, Ray

2015-06-01

A new semiparametric approach to model-based small area prediction for counts is proposed and used for estimating the average number of visits to physicians for Health Districts in Central Italy. The proposed small area predictor can be viewed as an outlier robust alternative to the more commonly used empirical plug-in predictor that is based on a Poisson generalized linear mixed model with Gaussian random effects. Results from the real data application and from a simulation experiment confirm that the proposed small area predictor has good robustness properties and in some cases can be more efficient than alternative small area approaches. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

A Worst-Case Approach for On-Line Flutter Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lind, Rick C.; Brenner, Martin J.

1998-01-01

Worst-case flutter margins may be computed for a linear model with respect to a set of uncertainty operators using the structured singular value. This paper considers an on-line implementation to compute these robust margins in a flight test program. Uncertainty descriptions are updated at test points to account for unmodeled time-varying dynamics of the airplane by ensuring the robust model is not invalidated by measured flight data. Robust margins computed with respect to this uncertainty remain conservative to the changing dynamics throughout the flight. A simulation clearly demonstrates this method can improve the efficiency of flight testing by accurately predicting the flutter margin to improve safety while reducing the necessary flight time.

Prediction of North Pacific Height Anomalies During Strong Madden-Julian Oscillation Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kai-Chih, T.; Barnes, E. A.; Maloney, E. D.

2017-12-01

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) creates strong variations in extratropical atmospheric circulations that have important implications for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. In particular, certain MJO phases are characterized by a consistent modulation of geopotential height in the North Pacific and adjacent regions across different MJO events. Until recently, only limited research has examined the relationship between these robust MJO tropical-extratropical teleconnections and model prediction skill. In this study, reanalysis data (MERRA and ERA-Interim) and ECMWF ensemble hindcasts are used to demonstrate that robust teleconnections in specific MJO phases and time lags are also characterized by excellent agreement in the prediction of geopotential height anoma- lies across model ensemble members at forecast leads of up to 3 weeks. These periods of enhanced prediction capabilities extend the possibility for skillful extratropical weather prediction beyond traditional 10-13 day limits. Furthermore, we also examine the phase dependency of teleconnection robustness by using Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM) and the result is consistent with the ensemble hindcasts : the anomalous heating of MJO phase 2 (phase 6) can consistently generate positive (negative) geopotential height anomalies around the extratropical Pacific with a lead of 15-20 days, while other phases are more sensitive to the variaion of the mean state.

Predictability and Robustness in the Manipulation of Dynamically Complex Objects

PubMed Central

Hasson, Christopher J.

2017-01-01

Manipulation of complex objects and tools is a hallmark of many activities of daily living, but how the human neuromotor control system interacts with such objects is not well understood. Even the seemingly simple task of transporting a cup of coffee without spilling creates complex interaction forces that humans need to compensate for. Predicting the behavior of an underactuated object with nonlinear fluid dynamics based on an internal model appears daunting. Hence, this research tests the hypothesis that humans learn strategies that make interactions predictable and robust to inaccuracies in neural representations of object dynamics. The task of moving a cup of coffee is modeled with a cart-and-pendulum system that is rendered in a virtual environment, where subjects interact with a virtual cup with a rolling ball inside using a robotic manipulandum. To gain insight into human control strategies, we operationalize predictability and robustness to permit quantitative theory-based assessment. Predictability is quantified by the mutual information between the applied force and the object dynamics; robustness is quantified by the energy margin away from failure. Three studies are reviewed that show how with practice subjects develop movement strategies that are predictable and robust. Alternative criteria, common for free movement, such as maximization of smoothness and minimization of force, do not account for the observed data. As manual dexterity is compromised in many individuals with neurological disorders, the experimental paradigm and its analyses are a promising platform to gain insights into neurological diseases, such as dystonia and multiple sclerosis, as well as healthy aging. PMID:28035560

Deep learning and model predictive control for self-tuning mode-locked lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumeister, Thomas; Brunton, Steven L.; Nathan Kutz, J.

2018-03-01

Self-tuning optical systems are of growing importance in technological applications such as mode-locked fiber lasers. Such self-tuning paradigms require {\\em intelligent} algorithms capable of inferring approximate models of the underlying physics and discovering appropriate control laws in order to maintain robust performance for a given objective. In this work, we demonstrate the first integration of a {\\em deep learning} (DL) architecture with {\\em model predictive control} (MPC) in order to self-tune a mode-locked fiber laser. Not only can our DL-MPC algorithmic architecture approximate the unknown fiber birefringence, it also builds a dynamical model of the laser and appropriate control law for maintaining robust, high-energy pulses despite a stochastically drifting birefringence. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method on a fiber laser which is mode-locked by nonlinear polarization rotation. The method advocated can be broadly applied to a variety of optical systems that require robust controllers.

A Robustly Stabilizing Model Predictive Control Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackmece, A. Behcet; Carson, John M., III

2007-01-01

A model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that differs from prior MPC algorithms has been developed for controlling an uncertain nonlinear system. This algorithm guarantees the resolvability of an associated finite-horizon optimal-control problem in a receding-horizon implementation.

Robust PBPK/PD-Based Model Predictive Control of Blood Glucose.

PubMed

Schaller, Stephan; Lippert, Jorg; Schaupp, Lukas; Pieber, Thomas R; Schuppert, Andreas; Eissing, Thomas

2016-07-01

Automated glucose control (AGC) has not yet reached the point where it can be applied clinically [3]. Challenges are accuracy of subcutaneous (SC) glucose sensors, physiological lag times, and both inter- and intraindividual variability. To address above issues, we developed a novel scheme for MPC that can be applied to AGC. An individualizable generic whole-body physiology-based pharmacokinetic and dynamics (PBPK/PD) model of the glucose, insulin, and glucagon metabolism has been used as the predictive kernel. The high level of mechanistic detail represented by the model takes full advantage of the potential of MPC and may make long-term prediction possible as it captures at least some relevant sources of variability [4]. Robustness against uncertainties was increased by a control cascade relying on proportional-integrative derivative-based offset control. The performance of this AGC scheme was evaluated in silico and retrospectively using data from clinical trials. This analysis revealed that our approach handles sensor noise with a MARD of 10%-14%, and model uncertainties and disturbances. The results suggest that PBPK/PD models are well suited for MPC in a glucose control setting, and that their predictive power in combination with the integrated database-driven (a priori individualizable) model framework will help overcome current challenges in the development of AGC systems. This study provides a new, generic, and robust mechanistic approach to AGC using a PBPK platform with extensive a priori (database) knowledge for individualization.

Robust regression and posterior predictive simulation increase power to detect early bursts of trait evolution.

PubMed

Slater, Graham J; Pennell, Matthew W

2014-05-01

A central prediction of much theory on adaptive radiations is that traits should evolve rapidly during the early stages of a clade's history and subsequently slowdown in rate as niches become saturated--a so-called "Early Burst." Although a common pattern in the fossil record, evidence for early bursts of trait evolution in phylogenetic comparative data has been equivocal at best. We show here that this may not necessarily be due to the absence of this pattern in nature. Rather, commonly used methods to infer its presence perform poorly when when the strength of the burst--the rate at which phenotypic evolution declines--is small, and when some morphological convergence is present within the clade. We present two modifications to existing comparative methods that allow greater power to detect early bursts in simulated datasets. First, we develop posterior predictive simulation approaches and show that they outperform maximum likelihood approaches at identifying early bursts at moderate strength. Second, we use a robust regression procedure that allows for the identification and down-weighting of convergent taxa, leading to moderate increases in method performance. We demonstrate the utility and power of these approach by investigating the evolution of body size in cetaceans. Model fitting using maximum likelihood is equivocal with regards the mode of cetacean body size evolution. However, posterior predictive simulation combined with a robust node height test return low support for Brownian motion or rate shift models, but not the early burst model. While the jury is still out on whether early bursts are actually common in nature, our approach will hopefully facilitate more robust testing of this hypothesis. We advocate the adoption of similar posterior predictive approaches to improve the fit and to assess the adequacy of macroevolutionary models in general.

A system identification approach for developing model predictive controllers of antibody quality attributes in cell culture processes

PubMed Central

Schmitt, John; Beller, Justin; Russell, Brian; Quach, Anthony; Hermann, Elizabeth; Lyon, David; Breit, Jeffrey

2017-01-01

As the biopharmaceutical industry evolves to include more diverse protein formats and processes, more robust control of Critical Quality Attributes (CQAs) is needed to maintain processing flexibility without compromising quality. Active control of CQAs has been demonstrated using model predictive control techniques, which allow development of processes which are robust against disturbances associated with raw material variability and other potentially flexible operating conditions. Wide adoption of model predictive control in biopharmaceutical cell culture processes has been hampered, however, in part due to the large amount of data and expertise required to make a predictive model of controlled CQAs, a requirement for model predictive control. Here we developed a highly automated, perfusion apparatus to systematically and efficiently generate predictive models using application of system identification approaches. We successfully created a predictive model of %galactosylation using data obtained by manipulating galactose concentration in the perfusion apparatus in serialized step change experiments. We then demonstrated the use of the model in a model predictive controller in a simulated control scenario to successfully achieve a %galactosylation set point in a simulated fed‐batch culture. The automated model identification approach demonstrated here can potentially be generalized to many CQAs, and could be a more efficient, faster, and highly automated alternative to batch experiments for developing predictive models in cell culture processes, and allow the wider adoption of model predictive control in biopharmaceutical processes. © 2017 The Authors Biotechnology Progress published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 33:1647–1661, 2017 PMID:28786215

Optimal strategy analysis based on robust predictive control for inventory system with random demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saputra, Aditya; Widowati, Sutrisno

2017-12-01

In this paper, the optimal strategy for a single product single supplier inventory system with random demand is analyzed by using robust predictive control with additive random parameter. We formulate the dynamical system of this system as a linear state space with additive random parameter. To determine and analyze the optimal strategy for the given inventory system, we use robust predictive control approach which gives the optimal strategy i.e. the optimal product volume that should be purchased from the supplier for each time period so that the expected cost is minimal. A numerical simulation is performed with some generated random inventory data. We simulate in MATLAB software where the inventory level must be controlled as close as possible to a set point decided by us. From the results, robust predictive control model provides the optimal strategy i.e. the optimal product volume that should be purchased and the inventory level was followed the given set point.

Latent Patient Cluster Discovery for Robust Future Forecasting and New-Patient Generalization

PubMed Central

Masino, Aaron J.

2016-01-01

Commonly referred to as predictive modeling, the use of machine learning and statistical methods to improve healthcare outcomes has recently gained traction in biomedical informatics research. Given the vast opportunities enabled by large Electronic Health Records (EHR) data and powerful resources for conducting predictive modeling, we argue that it is yet crucial to first carefully examine the prediction task and then choose predictive methods accordingly. Specifically, we argue that there are at least three distinct prediction tasks that are often conflated in biomedical research: 1) data imputation, where a model fills in the missing values in a dataset, 2) future forecasting, where a model projects the development of a medical condition for a known patient based on existing observations, and 3) new-patient generalization, where a model transfers the knowledge learned from previously observed patients to newly encountered ones. Importantly, the latter two tasks—future forecasting and new-patient generalizations—tend to be more difficult than data imputation as they require predictions to be made on potentially out-of-sample data (i.e., data following a different predictable pattern from what has been learned by the model). Using hearing loss progression as an example, we investigate three regression models and show that the modeling of latent clusters is a robust method for addressing the more challenging prediction scenarios. Overall, our findings suggest that there exist significant differences between various kinds of prediction tasks and that it is important to evaluate the merits of a predictive model relative to the specific purpose of a prediction task. PMID:27636203

Latent Patient Cluster Discovery for Robust Future Forecasting and New-Patient Generalization.

PubMed

Qian, Ting; Masino, Aaron J

2016-01-01

Commonly referred to as predictive modeling, the use of machine learning and statistical methods to improve healthcare outcomes has recently gained traction in biomedical informatics research. Given the vast opportunities enabled by large Electronic Health Records (EHR) data and powerful resources for conducting predictive modeling, we argue that it is yet crucial to first carefully examine the prediction task and then choose predictive methods accordingly. Specifically, we argue that there are at least three distinct prediction tasks that are often conflated in biomedical research: 1) data imputation, where a model fills in the missing values in a dataset, 2) future forecasting, where a model projects the development of a medical condition for a known patient based on existing observations, and 3) new-patient generalization, where a model transfers the knowledge learned from previously observed patients to newly encountered ones. Importantly, the latter two tasks-future forecasting and new-patient generalizations-tend to be more difficult than data imputation as they require predictions to be made on potentially out-of-sample data (i.e., data following a different predictable pattern from what has been learned by the model). Using hearing loss progression as an example, we investigate three regression models and show that the modeling of latent clusters is a robust method for addressing the more challenging prediction scenarios. Overall, our findings suggest that there exist significant differences between various kinds of prediction tasks and that it is important to evaluate the merits of a predictive model relative to the specific purpose of a prediction task.

Structured Kernel Subspace Learning for Autonomous Robot Navigation.

PubMed

Kim, Eunwoo; Choi, Sungjoon; Oh, Songhwai

2018-02-14

This paper considers two important problems for autonomous robot navigation in a dynamic environment, where the goal is to predict pedestrian motion and control a robot with the prediction for safe navigation. While there are several methods for predicting the motion of a pedestrian and controlling a robot to avoid incoming pedestrians, it is still difficult to safely navigate in a dynamic environment due to challenges, such as the varying quality and complexity of training data with unwanted noises. This paper addresses these challenges simultaneously by proposing a robust kernel subspace learning algorithm based on the recent advances in nuclear-norm and l 1 -norm minimization. We model the motion of a pedestrian and the robot controller using Gaussian processes. The proposed method efficiently approximates a kernel matrix used in Gaussian process regression by learning low-rank structured matrix (with symmetric positive semi-definiteness) to find an orthogonal basis, which eliminates the effects of erroneous and inconsistent data. Based on structured kernel subspace learning, we propose a robust motion model and motion controller for safe navigation in dynamic environments. We evaluate the proposed robust kernel learning in various tasks, including regression, motion prediction, and motion control problems, and demonstrate that the proposed learning-based systems are robust against outliers and outperform existing regression and navigation methods.

Guaranteeing robustness of structural condition monitoring to environmental variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Buren, Kendra; Reilly, Jack; Neal, Kyle; Edwards, Harry; Hemez, François

2017-01-01

Advances in sensor deployment and computational modeling have allowed significant strides to be recently made in the field of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM). One widely used SHM strategy is to perform a vibration analysis where a model of the structure's pristine (undamaged) condition is compared with vibration response data collected from the physical structure. Discrepancies between model predictions and monitoring data can be interpreted as structural damage. Unfortunately, multiple sources of uncertainty must also be considered in the analysis, including environmental variability, unknown model functional forms, and unknown values of model parameters. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty can lead to false-positives or false-negatives in the structural condition assessment. To manage the uncertainty, we propose a robust SHM methodology that combines three technologies. A time series algorithm is trained using "baseline" data to predict the vibration response, compare predictions to actual measurements collected on a potentially damaged structure, and calculate a user-defined damage indicator. The second technology handles the uncertainty present in the problem. An analysis of robustness is performed to propagate this uncertainty through the time series algorithm and obtain the corresponding bounds of variation of the damage indicator. The uncertainty description and robustness analysis are both inspired by the theory of info-gap decision-making. Lastly, an appropriate "size" of the uncertainty space is determined through physical experiments performed in laboratory conditions. Our hypothesis is that examining how the uncertainty space changes throughout time might lead to superior diagnostics of structural damage as compared to only monitoring the damage indicator. This methodology is applied to a portal frame structure to assess if the strategy holds promise for robust SHM. (Publication approved for unlimited, public release on October-28-2015, LA-UR-15-28442, unclassified.)

Small Body GN&C Research Report: A Robust Model Predictive Control Algorithm with Guaranteed Resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Behcet A.; Carson, John M., III

2005-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees the resolvability of the associated finite-horizon optimal control problem in a receding-horizon implementation. The control consists of two components; (i) feedforward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives, and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

A robust model predictive control algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems that guarantees resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Ahmet Behcet; Carson, John M., III

2006-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees resolvability. With resolvability, initial feasibility of the finite-horizon optimal control problem implies future feasibility in a receding-horizon framework. The control consists of two components; (i) feed-forward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

Robust and Accurate Modeling Approaches for Migraine Per-Patient Prediction from Ambulatory Data

PubMed Central

Pagán, Josué; Irene De Orbe, M.; Gago, Ana; Sobrado, Mónica; Risco-Martín, José L.; Vivancos Mora, J.; Moya, José M.; Ayala, José L.

2015-01-01

Migraine is one of the most wide-spread neurological disorders, and its medical treatment represents a high percentage of the costs of health systems. In some patients, characteristic symptoms that precede the headache appear. However, they are nonspecific, and their prediction horizon is unknown and pretty variable; hence, these symptoms are almost useless for prediction, and they are not useful to advance the intake of drugs to be effective and neutralize the pain. To solve this problem, this paper sets up a realistic monitoring scenario where hemodynamic variables from real patients are monitored in ambulatory conditions with a wireless body sensor network (WBSN). The acquired data are used to evaluate the predictive capabilities and robustness against noise and failures in sensors of several modeling approaches. The obtained results encourage the development of per-patient models based on state-space models (N4SID) that are capable of providing average forecast windows of 47 min and a low rate of false positives. PMID:26134103

Improving near-infrared prediction model robustness with support vector machine regression: a pharmaceutical tablet assay example.

PubMed

Igne, Benoît; Drennen, James K; Anderson, Carl A

2014-01-01

Changes in raw materials and process wear and tear can have significant effects on the prediction error of near-infrared calibration models. When the variability that is present during routine manufacturing is not included in the calibration, test, and validation sets, the long-term performance and robustness of the model will be limited. Nonlinearity is a major source of interference. In near-infrared spectroscopy, nonlinearity can arise from light path-length differences that can come from differences in particle size or density. The usefulness of support vector machine (SVM) regression to handle nonlinearity and improve the robustness of calibration models in scenarios where the calibration set did not include all the variability present in test was evaluated. Compared to partial least squares (PLS) regression, SVM regression was less affected by physical (particle size) and chemical (moisture) differences. The linearity of the SVM predicted values was also improved. Nevertheless, although visualization and interpretation tools have been developed to enhance the usability of SVM-based methods, work is yet to be done to provide chemometricians in the pharmaceutical industry with a regression method that can supplement PLS-based methods.

omniClassifier: a Desktop Grid Computing System for Big Data Prediction Modeling

PubMed Central

Phan, John H.; Kothari, Sonal; Wang, May D.

2016-01-01

Robust prediction models are important for numerous science, engineering, and biomedical applications. However, best-practice procedures for optimizing prediction models can be computationally complex, especially when choosing models from among hundreds or thousands of parameter choices. Computational complexity has further increased with the growth of data in these fields, concurrent with the era of “Big Data”. Grid computing is a potential solution to the computational challenges of Big Data. Desktop grid computing, which uses idle CPU cycles of commodity desktop machines, coupled with commercial cloud computing resources can enable research labs to gain easier and more cost effective access to vast computing resources. We have developed omniClassifier, a multi-purpose prediction modeling application that provides researchers with a tool for conducting machine learning research within the guidelines of recommended best-practices. omniClassifier is implemented as a desktop grid computing system using the Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing (BOINC) middleware. In addition to describing implementation details, we use various gene expression datasets to demonstrate the potential scalability of omniClassifier for efficient and robust Big Data prediction modeling. A prototype of omniClassifier can be accessed at http://omniclassifier.bme.gatech.edu/. PMID:27532062

A system identification approach for developing model predictive controllers of antibody quality attributes in cell culture processes.

PubMed

Downey, Brandon; Schmitt, John; Beller, Justin; Russell, Brian; Quach, Anthony; Hermann, Elizabeth; Lyon, David; Breit, Jeffrey

2017-11-01

As the biopharmaceutical industry evolves to include more diverse protein formats and processes, more robust control of Critical Quality Attributes (CQAs) is needed to maintain processing flexibility without compromising quality. Active control of CQAs has been demonstrated using model predictive control techniques, which allow development of processes which are robust against disturbances associated with raw material variability and other potentially flexible operating conditions. Wide adoption of model predictive control in biopharmaceutical cell culture processes has been hampered, however, in part due to the large amount of data and expertise required to make a predictive model of controlled CQAs, a requirement for model predictive control. Here we developed a highly automated, perfusion apparatus to systematically and efficiently generate predictive models using application of system identification approaches. We successfully created a predictive model of %galactosylation using data obtained by manipulating galactose concentration in the perfusion apparatus in serialized step change experiments. We then demonstrated the use of the model in a model predictive controller in a simulated control scenario to successfully achieve a %galactosylation set point in a simulated fed-batch culture. The automated model identification approach demonstrated here can potentially be generalized to many CQAs, and could be a more efficient, faster, and highly automated alternative to batch experiments for developing predictive models in cell culture processes, and allow the wider adoption of model predictive control in biopharmaceutical processes. © 2017 The Authors Biotechnology Progress published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 33:1647-1661, 2017. © 2017 The Authors Biotechnology Progress published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Robust geostatistical analysis of spatial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papritz, Andreas; Künsch, Hans Rudolf; Schwierz, Cornelia; Stahel, Werner A.

2013-04-01

Most of the geostatistical software tools rely on non-robust algorithms. This is unfortunate, because outlying observations are rather the rule than the exception, in particular in environmental data sets. Outliers affect the modelling of the large-scale spatial trend, the estimation of the spatial dependence of the residual variation and the predictions by kriging. Identifying outliers manually is cumbersome and requires expertise because one needs parameter estimates to decide which observation is a potential outlier. Moreover, inference after the rejection of some observations is problematic. A better approach is to use robust algorithms that prevent automatically that outlying observations have undue influence. Former studies on robust geostatistics focused on robust estimation of the sample variogram and ordinary kriging without external drift. Furthermore, Richardson and Welsh (1995) proposed a robustified version of (restricted) maximum likelihood ([RE]ML) estimation for the variance components of a linear mixed model, which was later used by Marchant and Lark (2007) for robust REML estimation of the variogram. We propose here a novel method for robust REML estimation of the variogram of a Gaussian random field that is possibly contaminated by independent errors from a long-tailed distribution. It is based on robustification of estimating equations for the Gaussian REML estimation (Welsh and Richardson, 1997). Besides robust estimates of the parameters of the external drift and of the variogram, the method also provides standard errors for the estimated parameters, robustified kriging predictions at both sampled and non-sampled locations and kriging variances. Apart from presenting our modelling framework, we shall present selected simulation results by which we explored the properties of the new method. This will be complemented by an analysis a data set on heavy metal contamination of the soil in the vicinity of a metal smelter. Marchant, B.P. and Lark, R.M. 2007. Robust estimation of the variogram by residual maximum likelihood. Geoderma 140: 62-72. Richardson, A.M. and Welsh, A.H. 1995. Robust restricted maximum likelihood in mixed linear models. Biometrics 51: 1429-1439. Welsh, A.H. and Richardson, A.M. 1997. Approaches to the robust estimation of mixed models. In: Handbook of Statistics Vol. 15, Elsevier, pp. 343-384.

A biological network-based regularized artificial neural network model for robust phenotype prediction from gene expression data.

PubMed

Kang, Tianyu; Ding, Wei; Zhang, Luoyan; Ziemek, Daniel; Zarringhalam, Kourosh

2017-12-19

Stratification of patient subpopulations that respond favorably to treatment or experience and adverse reaction is an essential step toward development of new personalized therapies and diagnostics. It is currently feasible to generate omic-scale biological measurements for all patients in a study, providing an opportunity for machine learning models to identify molecular markers for disease diagnosis and progression. However, the high variability of genetic background in human populations hampers the reproducibility of omic-scale markers. In this paper, we develop a biological network-based regularized artificial neural network model for prediction of phenotype from transcriptomic measurements in clinical trials. To improve model sparsity and the overall reproducibility of the model, we incorporate regularization for simultaneous shrinkage of gene sets based on active upstream regulatory mechanisms into the model. We benchmark our method against various regression, support vector machines and artificial neural network models and demonstrate the ability of our method in predicting the clinical outcomes using clinical trial data on acute rejection in kidney transplantation and response to Infliximab in ulcerative colitis. We show that integration of prior biological knowledge into the classification as developed in this paper, significantly improves the robustness and generalizability of predictions to independent datasets. We provide a Java code of our algorithm along with a parsed version of the STRING DB database. In summary, we present a method for prediction of clinical phenotypes using baseline genome-wide expression data that makes use of prior biological knowledge on gene-regulatory interactions in order to increase robustness and reproducibility of omic-scale markers. The integrated group-wise regularization methods increases the interpretability of biological signatures and gives stable performance estimates across independent test sets.

Robust model predictive control for multi-step short range spacecraft rendezvous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Shuyi; Sun, Ran; Wang, Jiaolong; Wang, Jihe; Shao, Xiaowei

2018-07-01

This work presents a robust model predictive control (MPC) approach for the multi-step short range spacecraft rendezvous problem. During the specific short range phase concerned, the chaser is supposed to be initially outside the line-of-sight (LOS) cone. Therefore, the rendezvous process naturally includes two steps: the first step is to transfer the chaser into the LOS cone and the second step is to transfer the chaser into the aimed region with its motion confined within the LOS cone. A novel MPC framework named after Mixed MPC (M-MPC) is proposed, which is the combination of the Variable-Horizon MPC (VH-MPC) framework and the Fixed-Instant MPC (FI-MPC) framework. The M-MPC framework enables the optimization for the two steps to be implemented jointly rather than to be separated factitiously, and its computation workload is acceptable for the usually low-power processors onboard spacecraft. Then considering that disturbances including modeling error, sensor noise and thrust uncertainty may induce undesired constraint violations, a robust technique is developed and it is attached to the above M-MPC framework to form a robust M-MPC approach. The robust technique is based on the chance-constrained idea, which ensures that constraints can be satisfied with a prescribed probability. It improves the robust technique proposed by Gavilan et al., because it eliminates the unnecessary conservativeness by explicitly incorporating known statistical properties of the navigation uncertainty. The efficacy of the robust M-MPC approach is shown in a simulation study.

Importance analysis for Hudson River PCB transport and fate model parameters using robust sensitivity studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, S.; Toll, J.; Cothern, K.

1995-12-31

The authors have performed robust sensitivity studies of the physico-chemical Hudson River PCB model PCHEPM to identify the parameters and process uncertainties contributing the most to uncertainty in predictions of water column and sediment PCB concentrations, over the time period 1977--1991 in one segment of the lower Hudson River. The term ``robust sensitivity studies`` refers to the use of several sensitivity analysis techniques to obtain a more accurate depiction of the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty. Local sensitivity analysis provided data on the sensitivity of PCB concentration estimates to small perturbations in nominal parameter values. Range sensitivity analysismore » provided information about the magnitude of prediction uncertainty associated with each input uncertainty. Rank correlation analysis indicated which parameters had the most dominant influence on model predictions. Factorial analysis identified important interactions among model parameters. Finally, term analysis looked at the aggregate influence of combinations of parameters representing physico-chemical processes. The authors scored the results of the local and range sensitivity and rank correlation analyses. The authors considered parameters that scored high on two of the three analyses to be important contributors to PCB concentration prediction uncertainty, and treated them probabilistically in simulations. They also treated probabilistically parameters identified in the factorial analysis as interacting with important parameters. The authors used the term analysis to better understand how uncertain parameters were influencing the PCB concentration predictions. The importance analysis allowed us to reduce the number of parameters to be modeled probabilistically from 16 to 5. This reduced the computational complexity of Monte Carlo simulations, and more importantly, provided a more lucid depiction of prediction uncertainty and its causes.« less

Glomerular structural-functional relationship models of diabetic nephropathy are robust in type 1 diabetic patients.

PubMed

Mauer, Michael; Caramori, Maria Luiza; Fioretto, Paola; Najafian, Behzad

2015-06-01

Studies of structural-functional relationships have improved understanding of the natural history of diabetic nephropathy (DN). However, in order to consider structural end points for clinical trials, the robustness of the resultant models needs to be verified. This study examined whether structural-functional relationship models derived from a large cohort of type 1 diabetic (T1D) patients with a wide range of renal function are robust. The predictability of models derived from multiple regression analysis and piecewise linear regression analysis was also compared. T1D patients (n = 161) with research renal biopsies were divided into two equal groups matched for albumin excretion rate (AER). Models to explain AER and glomerular filtration rate (GFR) by classical DN lesions in one group (T1D-model, or T1D-M) were applied to the other group (T1D-test, or T1D-T) and regression analyses were performed. T1D-M-derived models explained 70 and 63% of AER variance and 32 and 21% of GFR variance in T1D-M and T1D-T, respectively, supporting the substantial robustness of the models. Piecewise linear regression analyses substantially improved predictability of the models with 83% of AER variance and 66% of GFR variance explained by classical DN glomerular lesions alone. These studies demonstrate that DN structural-functional relationship models are robust, and if appropriate models are used, glomerular lesions alone explain a major proportion of AER and GFR variance in T1D patients. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Special Issue on Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale System Design and Simulation

DOE PAGES

Wang, Yan; Swiler, Laura

2017-09-07

The importance of uncertainty has been recognized in various modeling, simulation, and analysis applications, where inherent assumptions and simplifications affect the accuracy of model predictions for physical phenomena. As model predictions are now heavily relied upon for simulation-based system design, which includes new materials, vehicles, mechanical and civil structures, and even new drugs, wrong model predictions could potentially cause catastrophic consequences. Therefore, uncertainty and associated risks due to model errors should be quantified to support robust systems engineering.

Special Issue on Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale System Design and Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yan; Swiler, Laura

The importance of uncertainty has been recognized in various modeling, simulation, and analysis applications, where inherent assumptions and simplifications affect the accuracy of model predictions for physical phenomena. As model predictions are now heavily relied upon for simulation-based system design, which includes new materials, vehicles, mechanical and civil structures, and even new drugs, wrong model predictions could potentially cause catastrophic consequences. Therefore, uncertainty and associated risks due to model errors should be quantified to support robust systems engineering.

Predicting Upwelling Radiance on the West Florida Shelf

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-31

National Science Foundation . The chemical and biological model includes the ability to simulate multiple groups of phytoplankton, multiple limiting nutrients, spectral light harvesting by phytoplankton, multiple particulate and dissolved degradational pools of organic material, and non-stoichometric carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, silica, and iron dynamics. It also includes a complete spectral light model for the prediction of Inherent Optical Properties (IOPs). The coupling of the predicted IOP model (Ecosim 2.0) with robust radiative transfer model (Ecolight

Modelling postharvest quality of blueberry affected by biological variability using image and spectral data.

PubMed

Hu, Meng-Han; Dong, Qing-Li; Liu, Bao-Lin

2016-08-01

Hyperspectral reflectance and transmittance sensing as well as near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy were investigated as non-destructive tools for estimating blueberry firmness, elastic modulus and soluble solid content (SSC). Least squares-support vector machine models were established from these three spectra based on samples from three cultivars viz. Bluecrop, Duke and M2 and two harvest years viz. 2014 and 2015 for predicting blueberry postharvest quality. One-cultivar reflectance models (establishing model using one cultivar) derived better results than the corresponding transmittance and NIR models for predicting blueberry firmness with few cultivar effects. Two-cultivar NIR models (establishing model using two cultivars) proved to be suitable for estimating blueberry SSC with correlations over 0.83. Rp (RMSEp ) values of the three-cultivar reflectance models (establishing model using 75% of three cultivars) were 0.73 (0.094) and 0.73 (0.186), respectively , for predicting blueberry firmness and elastic modulus. For SSC prediction, the three-cultivar NIR model was found to achieve an Rp (RMSEp ) value of 0.85 (0.090). Adding Bluecrop samples harvested in 2014 could enhance the three-cultivar model robustness for firmness and elastic modulus. The above results indicated the potential for using spatial and spectral techniques to develop robust models for predicting blueberry postharvest quality containing biological variability. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Assessing the sensitivity and robustness of prediction models for apple firmness using spectral scattering technique

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spectral scattering is useful for nondestructive sensing of fruit firmness. Prediction models, however, are typically built using multivariate statistical methods such as partial least squares regression (PLSR), whose performance generally depends on the characteristics of the data. The aim of this ...

Performance and robustness of penalized and unpenalized methods for genetic prediction of complex human disease.

PubMed

Abraham, Gad; Kowalczyk, Adam; Zobel, Justin; Inouye, Michael

2013-02-01

A central goal of medical genetics is to accurately predict complex disease from genotypes. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of simulated and real data using lasso and elastic-net penalized support-vector machine models, a mixed-effects linear model, a polygenic score, and unpenalized logistic regression. In simulation, the sparse penalized models achieved lower false-positive rates and higher precision than the other methods for detecting causal SNPs. The common practice of prefiltering SNP lists for subsequent penalized modeling was examined and shown to substantially reduce the ability to recover the causal SNPs. Using genome-wide SNP profiles across eight complex diseases within cross-validation, lasso and elastic-net models achieved substantially better predictive ability in celiac disease, type 1 diabetes, and Crohn's disease, and had equivalent predictive ability in the rest, with the results in celiac disease strongly replicating between independent datasets. We investigated the effect of linkage disequilibrium on the predictive models, showing that the penalized methods leverage this information to their advantage, compared with methods that assume SNP independence. Our findings show that sparse penalized approaches are robust across different disease architectures, producing as good as or better phenotype predictions and variance explained. This has fundamental ramifications for the selection and future development of methods to genetically predict human disease. © 2012 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Decentralized robust nonlinear model predictive controller for unmanned aerial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia Garreton, Gonzalo A.

The nonlinear and unsteady nature of aircraft aerodynamics together with limited practical range of controls and state variables make the use of the linear control theory inadequate especially in the presence of external disturbances, such as wind. In the classical approach, aircraft are controlled by multiple inner and outer loops, designed separately and sequentially. For unmanned aerial systems in particular, control technology must evolve to a point where autonomy is extended to the entire mission flight envelope. This requires advanced controllers that have sufficient robustness, track complex trajectories, and use all the vehicles control capabilities at higher levels of accuracy. In this work, a robust nonlinear model predictive controller is designed to command and control an unmanned aerial system to track complex tight trajectories in the presence of internal and external perturbance. The Flight System developed in this work achieves the above performance by using: 1. A nonlinear guidance algorithm that enables the vehicle to follow an arbitrary trajectory shaped by moving points; 2. A formulation that embeds the guidance logic and trajectory information in the aircraft model, avoiding cross coupling and control degradation; 3. An artificial neural network, designed to adaptively estimate and provide aerodynamic and propulsive forces in real-time; and 4. A mixed sensitivity approach that enhances the robustness for a nonlinear model predictive controller overcoming the effect of un-modeled dynamics, external disturbances such as wind, and measurement additive perturbations, such as noise and biases. These elements have been integrated and tested in simulation and with previously stored flight test data and shown to be feasible.

The Robust Beauty of Ordinary Information

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V.; Schooler, Lael J.; Hertwig, Ralph

2010-01-01

Heuristics embodying limited information search and noncompensatory processing of information can yield robust performance relative to computationally more complex models. One criticism raised against heuristics is the argument that complexity is hidden in the calculation of the cue order used to make predictions. We discuss ways to order cues…

Robustness of Tomato Quality Evaluation Using a Portable Vis-SWNIRS for Dry Matter and Colour

PubMed Central

Subedi, P. P.; Walsh, K. B.

2017-01-01

The utility of a handheld visible-short wave near infrared spectrophotometer utilising an interactance optical geometry was assessed in context of the noninvasive determination of intact tomato dry matter content, as an index of final ripe soluble solids content, and colouration, as an index of maturation to guide a decision to harvest. Partial least squares regression model robustness was demonstrated through the use of populations of different harvest dates or growing conditions for calibration and prediction. Dry matter predictions of independent populations of fruit achieved R2 ranging from 0.86 to 0.92 and bias from −0.14 to 0.03%. For a CIE a⁎ colour model, prediction R2 ranged from 0.85 to 0.96 and bias from −1.18 to −0.08. Updating the calibration model with new samples to extend range in the attribute of interest and in sample matrix is key to better prediction performance. The handheld spectrometry system is recommended for practical implementation in tomato cultivation. PMID:29333161

Robust Kriged Kalman Filtering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baingana, Brian; Dall'Anese, Emiliano; Mateos, Gonzalo

2015-11-11

Although the kriged Kalman filter (KKF) has well-documented merits for prediction of spatial-temporal processes, its performance degrades in the presence of outliers due to anomalous events, or measurement equipment failures. This paper proposes a robust KKF model that explicitly accounts for presence of measurement outliers. Exploiting outlier sparsity, a novel l1-regularized estimator that jointly predicts the spatial-temporal process at unmonitored locations, while identifying measurement outliers is put forth. Numerical tests are conducted on a synthetic Internet protocol (IP) network, and real transformer load data. Test results corroborate the effectiveness of the novel estimator in joint spatial prediction and outlier identification.

A Robust Adaptive Autonomous Approach to Optimal Experimental Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Hairong

Experimentation is the fundamental tool of scientific inquiries to understand the laws governing the nature and human behaviors. Many complex real-world experimental scenarios, particularly in quest of prediction accuracy, often encounter difficulties to conduct experiments using an existing experimental procedure for the following two reasons. First, the existing experimental procedures require a parametric model to serve as the proxy of the latent data structure or data-generating mechanism at the beginning of an experiment. However, for those experimental scenarios of concern, a sound model is often unavailable before an experiment. Second, those experimental scenarios usually contain a large number of design variables, which potentially leads to a lengthy and costly data collection cycle. Incompetently, the existing experimental procedures are unable to optimize large-scale experiments so as to minimize the experimental length and cost. Facing the two challenges in those experimental scenarios, the aim of the present study is to develop a new experimental procedure that allows an experiment to be conducted without the assumption of a parametric model while still achieving satisfactory prediction, and performs optimization of experimental designs to improve the efficiency of an experiment. The new experimental procedure developed in the present study is named robust adaptive autonomous system (RAAS). RAAS is a procedure for sequential experiments composed of multiple experimental trials, which performs function estimation, variable selection, reverse prediction and design optimization on each trial. Directly addressing the challenges in those experimental scenarios of concern, function estimation and variable selection are performed by data-driven modeling methods to generate a predictive model from data collected during the course of an experiment, thus exempting the requirement of a parametric model at the beginning of an experiment; design optimization is performed to select experimental designs on the fly of an experiment based on their usefulness so that fewest designs are needed to reach useful inferential conclusions. Technically, function estimation is realized by Bayesian P-splines, variable selection is realized by Bayesian spike-and-slab prior, reverse prediction is realized by grid-search and design optimization is realized by the concepts of active learning. The present study demonstrated that RAAS achieves statistical robustness by making accurate predictions without the assumption of a parametric model serving as the proxy of latent data structure while the existing procedures can draw poor statistical inferences if a misspecified model is assumed; RAAS also achieves inferential efficiency by taking fewer designs to acquire useful statistical inferences than non-optimal procedures. Thus, RAAS is expected to be a principled solution to real-world experimental scenarios pursuing robust prediction and efficient experimentation.

SVM-Based System for Prediction of Epileptic Seizures from iEEG Signal

PubMed Central

Cherkassky, Vladimir; Lee, Jieun; Veber, Brandon; Patterson, Edward E.; Brinkmann, Benjamin H.; Worrell, Gregory A.

2017-01-01

Objective This paper describes a data-analytic modeling approach for prediction of epileptic seizures from intracranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) recording of brain activity. Even though it is widely accepted that statistical characteristics of iEEG signal change prior to seizures, robust seizure prediction remains a challenging problem due to subject-specific nature of data-analytic modeling. Methods Our work emphasizes understanding of clinical considerations important for iEEG-based seizure prediction, and proper translation of these clinical considerations into data-analytic modeling assumptions. Several design choices during pre-processing and post-processing are considered and investigated for their effect on seizure prediction accuracy. Results Our empirical results show that the proposed SVM-based seizure prediction system can achieve robust prediction of preictal and interictal iEEG segments from dogs with epilepsy. The sensitivity is about 90–100%, and the false-positive rate is about 0–0.3 times per day. The results also suggest good prediction is subject-specific (dog or human), in agreement with earlier studies. Conclusion Good prediction performance is possible only if the training data contain sufficiently many seizure episodes, i.e., at least 5–7 seizures. Significance The proposed system uses subject-specific modeling and unbalanced training data. This system also utilizes three different time scales during training and testing stages. PMID:27362758

Closed-loop control of artificial pancreatic Beta -cell in type 1 diabetes mellitus using model predictive iterative learning control.

PubMed

Wang, Youqing; Dassau, Eyal; Doyle, Francis J

2010-02-01

A novel combination of iterative learning control (ILC) and model predictive control (MPC), referred to here as model predictive iterative learning control (MPILC), is proposed for glycemic control in type 1 diabetes mellitus. MPILC exploits two key factors: frequent glucose readings made possible by continuous glucose monitoring technology; and the repetitive nature of glucose-meal-insulin dynamics with a 24-h cycle. The proposed algorithm can learn from an individual's lifestyle, allowing the control performance to be improved from day to day. After less than 10 days, the blood glucose concentrations can be kept within a range of 90-170 mg/dL. Generally, control performance under MPILC is better than that under MPC. The proposed methodology is robust to random variations in meal timings within +/-60 min or meal amounts within +/-75% of the nominal value, which validates MPILC's superior robustness compared to run-to-run control. Moreover, to further improve the algorithm's robustness, an automatic scheme for setpoint update that ensures safe convergence is proposed. Furthermore, the proposed method does not require user intervention; hence, the algorithm should be of particular interest for glycemic control in children and adolescents.

Predicting effects of structural stress in a genome-reduced model bacterial metabolism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Güell, Oriol; Sagués, Francesc; Serrano, M. Ángeles

2012-08-01

Mycoplasma pneumoniae is a human pathogen recently proposed as a genome-reduced model for bacterial systems biology. Here, we study the response of its metabolic network to different forms of structural stress, including removal of individual and pairs of reactions and knockout of genes and clusters of co-expressed genes. Our results reveal a network architecture as robust as that of other model bacteria regarding multiple failures, although less robust against individual reaction inactivation. Interestingly, metabolite motifs associated to reactions can predict the propagation of inactivation cascades and damage amplification effects arising in double knockouts. We also detect a significant correlation between gene essentiality and damages produced by single gene knockouts, and find that genes controlling high-damage reactions tend to be expressed independently of each other, a functional switch mechanism that, simultaneously, acts as a genetic firewall to protect metabolism. Prediction of failure propagation is crucial for metabolic engineering or disease treatment.

A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate.

PubMed

Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J

2017-03-21

A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

Large-scale linear programs in planning and prediction.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-01

Large-scale linear programs are at the core of many traffic-related optimization problems in both planning and prediction. Moreover, many of these involve significant uncertainty, and hence are modeled using either chance constraints, or robust optim...

Towards robust quantification and reduction of uncertainty in hydrologic predictions: Integration of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo and factorial polynomial chaos expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.; Ancell, B. C.

2017-05-01

The particle filtering techniques have been receiving increasing attention from the hydrologic community due to its ability to properly estimate model parameters and states of nonlinear and non-Gaussian systems. To facilitate a robust quantification of uncertainty in hydrologic predictions, it is necessary to explicitly examine the forward propagation and evolution of parameter uncertainties and their interactions that affect the predictive performance. This paper presents a unified probabilistic framework that merges the strengths of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) and factorial polynomial chaos expansion (FPCE) algorithms to robustly quantify and reduce uncertainties in hydrologic predictions. A Gaussian anamorphosis technique is used to establish a seamless bridge between the data assimilation using the PMCMC and the uncertainty propagation using the FPCE through a straightforward transformation of posterior distributions of model parameters. The unified probabilistic framework is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) region in China to demonstrate its validity and applicability. Results reveal that the degree of spatial variability of soil moisture capacity is the most identifiable model parameter with the fastest convergence through the streamflow assimilation process. The potential interaction between the spatial variability in soil moisture conditions and the maximum soil moisture capacity has the most significant effect on the performance of streamflow predictions. In addition, parameter sensitivities and interactions vary in magnitude and direction over time due to temporal and spatial dynamics of hydrologic processes.

The cardiovascular robustness hypothesis: Unmasking young adults' hidden risk for premature cardiovascular death.

PubMed

Kraushaar, Lutz E; Dressel, Alexander

2018-03-01

An undetected high risk for premature death of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among individuals with low-to-moderate risk factor levels is an acknowledged obstacle to CVD prevention. In this paper, we present the hypothesis that the vasculature's robustness against risk factor load will complement conventional risk factor models as a novel stratifier of risk. Figuratively speaking, mortality risk prediction without robustness scoring is akin to predicting the breaking risk of a lake's ice sheet considering load only while disregarding the sheet's bearing strength. Taking the cue from systems biology, which defines robustness as the ability to maintain function against internal and external challenges, we develop a robustness score from the physical parameters that comprehensively quantitate cardiovascular function. We derive the functional parameters using a recently introduced novel system, VascAssist 2 (iSYMED GmbH, Butzbach, Germany). VascAssist 2 (VA) applies the electronic-hydraulic analogy to a digital model of the arterial tree, replicating non-invasively acquired pule pressure waves by modulating the electronic equivalents of the physical parameters that describe in vivo arterial hemodynamics. As the latter is also subject to aging-associated degeneration which (a) progresses at inter-individually different rates, and which (b) affects the biomarker-mortality association, we express the robustness score as a correction factor to calendar age (CA), the dominant risk factor in all CVD risk factor models. We then propose a method for the validation of the score against known time-to-event data in reference populations. Our conceptualization of robustness implies that risk factor-challenged individuals with low robustness scores will face preferential elimination from the population resulting in a significant robustness-CA correlation in this strata absent in the unchallenged stratum. Hence, we also present an outline of a cross-sectional study design suitable to test this hypothesis. We finally discuss the objections that may validly be raised against our robustness hypothesis, and how available evidence encourages us to refute these objections. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MetaKTSP: a meta-analytic top scoring pair method for robust cross-study validation of omics prediction analysis.

PubMed

Kim, SungHwan; Lin, Chien-Wei; Tseng, George C

2016-07-01

Supervised machine learning is widely applied to transcriptomic data to predict disease diagnosis, prognosis or survival. Robust and interpretable classifiers with high accuracy are usually favored for their clinical and translational potential. The top scoring pair (TSP) algorithm is an example that applies a simple rank-based algorithm to identify rank-altered gene pairs for classifier construction. Although many classification methods perform well in cross-validation of single expression profile, the performance usually greatly reduces in cross-study validation (i.e. the prediction model is established in the training study and applied to an independent test study) for all machine learning methods, including TSP. The failure of cross-study validation has largely diminished the potential translational and clinical values of the models. The purpose of this article is to develop a meta-analytic top scoring pair (MetaKTSP) framework that combines multiple transcriptomic studies and generates a robust prediction model applicable to independent test studies. We proposed two frameworks, by averaging TSP scores or by combining P-values from individual studies, to select the top gene pairs for model construction. We applied the proposed methods in simulated data sets and three large-scale real applications in breast cancer, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and pan-cancer methylation. The result showed superior performance of cross-study validation accuracy and biomarker selection for the new meta-analytic framework. In conclusion, combining multiple omics data sets in the public domain increases robustness and accuracy of the classification model that will ultimately improve disease understanding and clinical treatment decisions to benefit patients. An R package MetaKTSP is available online. (http://tsenglab.biostat.pitt.edu/software.htm). ctseng@pitt.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Prediction-error variance in Bayesian model updating: a comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadollahi, Parisa; Li, Jian; Huang, Yong

2017-04-01

In Bayesian model updating, the likelihood function is commonly formulated by stochastic embedding in which the maximum information entropy probability model of prediction error variances plays an important role and it is Gaussian distribution subject to the first two moments as constraints. The selection of prediction error variances can be formulated as a model class selection problem, which automatically involves a trade-off between the average data-fit of the model class and the information it extracts from the data. Therefore, it is critical for the robustness in the updating of the structural model especially in the presence of modeling errors. To date, three ways of considering prediction error variances have been seem in the literature: 1) setting constant values empirically, 2) estimating them based on the goodness-of-fit of the measured data, and 3) updating them as uncertain parameters by applying Bayes' Theorem at the model class level. In this paper, the effect of different strategies to deal with the prediction error variances on the model updating performance is investigated explicitly. A six-story shear building model with six uncertain stiffness parameters is employed as an illustrative example. Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to draw samples of the posterior probability density function of the structure model parameters as well as the uncertain prediction variances. The different levels of modeling uncertainty and complexity are modeled through three FE models, including a true model, a model with more complexity, and a model with modeling error. Bayesian updating is performed for the three FE models considering the three aforementioned treatments of the prediction error variances. The effect of number of measurements on the model updating performance is also examined in the study. The results are compared based on model class assessment and indicate that updating the prediction error variances as uncertain parameters at the model class level produces more robust results especially when the number of measurement is small.

Robust Decision-making Applied to Model Selection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hemez, Francois M.

2012-08-06

The scientific and engineering communities are relying more and more on numerical models to simulate ever-increasingly complex phenomena. Selecting a model, from among a family of models that meets the simulation requirements, presents a challenge to modern-day analysts. To address this concern, a framework is adopted anchored in info-gap decision theory. The framework proposes to select models by examining the trade-offs between prediction accuracy and sensitivity to epistemic uncertainty. The framework is demonstrated on two structural engineering applications by asking the following question: Which model, of several numerical models, approximates the behavior of a structure when parameters that define eachmore » of those models are unknown? One observation is that models that are nominally more accurate are not necessarily more robust, and their accuracy can deteriorate greatly depending upon the assumptions made. It is posited that, as reliance on numerical models increases, establishing robustness will become as important as demonstrating accuracy.« less

Comparisons of Robustness and Sensitivity between Cancer and Normal Cells by Microarray Data

PubMed Central

Chu, Liang-Hui; Chen, Bor-Sen

2008-01-01

Robustness is defined as the ability to uphold performance in face of perturbations and uncertainties, and sensitivity is a measure of the system deviations generated by perturbations to the system. While cancer appears as a robust but fragile system, few computational and quantitative evidences demonstrate robustness tradeoffs in cancer. Microarrays have been widely applied to decipher gene expression signatures in human cancer research, and quantification of global gene expression profiles facilitates precise prediction and modeling of cancer in systems biology. We provide several efficient computational methods based on system and control theory to compare robustness and sensitivity between cancer and normal cells by microarray data. Measurement of robustness and sensitivity by linear stochastic model is introduced in this study, which shows oscillations in feedback loops of p53 and demonstrates robustness tradeoffs that cancer is a robust system with some extreme fragilities. In addition, we measure sensitivity of gene expression to perturbations in other gene expression and kinetic parameters, discuss nonlinear effects in feedback loops of p53 and extend our method to robustness-based cancer drug design. PMID:19259409

A Statistical Approach Reveals Designs for the Most Robust Stochastic Gene Oscillators

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The engineering of transcriptional networks presents many challenges due to the inherent uncertainty in the system structure, changing cellular context, and stochasticity in the governing dynamics. One approach to address these problems is to design and build systems that can function across a range of conditions; that is they are robust to uncertainty in their constituent components. Here we examine the parametric robustness landscape of transcriptional oscillators, which underlie many important processes such as circadian rhythms and the cell cycle, plus also serve as a model for the engineering of complex and emergent phenomena. The central questions that we address are: Can we build genetic oscillators that are more robust than those already constructed? Can we make genetic oscillators arbitrarily robust? These questions are technically challenging due to the large model and parameter spaces that must be efficiently explored. Here we use a measure of robustness that coincides with the Bayesian model evidence, combined with an efficient Monte Carlo method to traverse model space and concentrate on regions of high robustness, which enables the accurate evaluation of the relative robustness of gene network models governed by stochastic dynamics. We report the most robust two and three gene oscillator systems, plus examine how the number of interactions, the presence of autoregulation, and degradation of mRNA and protein affects the frequency, amplitude, and robustness of transcriptional oscillators. We also find that there is a limit to parametric robustness, beyond which there is nothing to be gained by adding additional feedback. Importantly, we provide predictions on new oscillator systems that can be constructed to verify the theory and advance design and modeling approaches to systems and synthetic biology. PMID:26835539

Robust and Adaptive Online Time Series Prediction with Long Short-Term Memory

PubMed Central

Tao, Qing

2017-01-01

Online time series prediction is the mainstream method in a wide range of fields, ranging from speech analysis and noise cancelation to stock market analysis. However, the data often contains many outliers with the increasing length of time series in real world. These outliers can mislead the learned model if treated as normal points in the process of prediction. To address this issue, in this paper, we propose a robust and adaptive online gradient learning method, RoAdam (Robust Adam), for long short-term memory (LSTM) to predict time series with outliers. This method tunes the learning rate of the stochastic gradient algorithm adaptively in the process of prediction, which reduces the adverse effect of outliers. It tracks the relative prediction error of the loss function with a weighted average through modifying Adam, a popular stochastic gradient method algorithm for training deep neural networks. In our algorithm, the large value of the relative prediction error corresponds to a small learning rate, and vice versa. The experiments on both synthetic data and real time series show that our method achieves better performance compared to the existing methods based on LSTM. PMID:29391864

Robust and Adaptive Online Time Series Prediction with Long Short-Term Memory.

PubMed

Yang, Haimin; Pan, Zhisong; Tao, Qing

2017-01-01

Online time series prediction is the mainstream method in a wide range of fields, ranging from speech analysis and noise cancelation to stock market analysis. However, the data often contains many outliers with the increasing length of time series in real world. These outliers can mislead the learned model if treated as normal points in the process of prediction. To address this issue, in this paper, we propose a robust and adaptive online gradient learning method, RoAdam (Robust Adam), for long short-term memory (LSTM) to predict time series with outliers. This method tunes the learning rate of the stochastic gradient algorithm adaptively in the process of prediction, which reduces the adverse effect of outliers. It tracks the relative prediction error of the loss function with a weighted average through modifying Adam, a popular stochastic gradient method algorithm for training deep neural networks. In our algorithm, the large value of the relative prediction error corresponds to a small learning rate, and vice versa. The experiments on both synthetic data and real time series show that our method achieves better performance compared to the existing methods based on LSTM.

Design and analysis of a model predictive controller for active queue management.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Chen, Hong; Yang, Xiaoping; Ma, Yan

2012-01-01

Model predictive (MP) control as a novel active queue management (AQM) algorithm in dynamic computer networks is proposed. According to the predicted future queue length in the data buffer, early packets at the router are dropped reasonably by the MPAQM controller so that the queue length reaches the desired value with minimal tracking error. The drop probability is obtained by optimizing the network performance. Further, randomized algorithms are applied to analyze the robustness of MPAQM successfully, and also to provide the stability domain of systems with uncertain network parameters. The performances of MPAQM are evaluated through a series of simulations in NS2. The simulation results show that the MPAQM algorithm outperforms RED, PI, and REM algorithms in terms of stability, disturbance rejection, and robustness. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robustness of atomistic Gō models in predicting native-like folding intermediates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estácio, S. G.; Fernandes, C. S.; Krobath, H.; Faísca, P. F. N.; Shakhnovich, E. I.

2012-08-01

Gō models are exceedingly popular tools in computer simulations of protein folding. These models are native-centric, i.e., they are directly constructed from the protein's native structure. Therefore, it is important to understand up to which extent the atomistic details of the native structure dictate the folding behavior exhibited by Gō models. Here we address this challenge by performing exhaustive discrete molecular dynamics simulations of a Gō potential combined with a full atomistic protein representation. In particular, we investigate the robustness of this particular type of Gō models in predicting the existence of intermediate states in protein folding. We focus on the N47G mutational form of the Spc-SH3 folding domain (x-ray structure) and compare its folding pathway with that of alternative native structures produced in silico. Our methodological strategy comprises equilibrium folding simulations, structural clustering, and principal component analysis.

Multivariate Analysis of Seismic Field Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alam, M. Kathleen

1999-06-01

This report includes the details of the model building procedure and prediction of seismic field data. Principal Components Regression, a multivariate analysis technique, was used to model seismic data collected as two pieces of equipment were cycled on and off. Models built that included only the two pieces of equipment of interest had trouble predicting data containing signals not included in the model. Evidence for poor predictions came from the prediction curves as well as spectral F-ratio plots. Once the extraneous signals were included in the model, predictions improved dramatically. While Principal Components Regression performed well for the present datamore » sets, the present data analysis suggests further work will be needed to develop more robust modeling methods as the data become more complex.« less

Statistical procedures for evaluating daily and monthly hydrologic model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coffey, M.E.; Workman, S.R.; Taraba, J.L.; Fogle, A.W.

2004-01-01

The overall study objective was to evaluate the applicability of different qualitative and quantitative methods for comparing daily and monthly SWAT computer model hydrologic streamflow predictions to observed data, and to recommend statistical methods for use in future model evaluations. Statistical methods were tested using daily streamflows and monthly equivalent runoff depths. The statistical techniques included linear regression, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, nonparametric tests, t-test, objective functions, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation. None of the methods specifically applied to the non-normal distribution and dependence between data points for the daily predicted and observed data. Of the tested methods, median objective functions, sign test, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation were most applicable for the daily data. The robust coefficient of determination (CD*) and robust modeling efficiency (EF*) objective functions were the preferred methods for daily model results due to the ease of comparing these values with a fixed ideal reference value of one. Predicted and observed monthly totals were more normally distributed, and there was less dependence between individual monthly totals than was observed for the corresponding predicted and observed daily values. More statistical methods were available for comparing SWAT model-predicted and observed monthly totals. The 1995 monthly SWAT model predictions and observed data had a regression Rr2 of 0.70, a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.41, and the t-test failed to reject the equal data means hypothesis. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and the R r2 coefficient were the preferred methods for monthly results due to the ability to compare these coefficients to a set ideal value of one.

SU-F-R-51: Radiomics in CT Perfusion Maps of Head and Neck Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nesteruk, M; Riesterer, O; Veit-Haibach, P

2016-06-15

Purpose: The aim of this study was to test the predictive value of radiomics features of CT perfusion (CTP) for tumor control, based on a preselection of radiomics features in a robustness study. Methods: 11 patients with head and neck cancer (HNC) and 11 patients with lung cancer were included in the robustness study to preselect stable radiomics parameters. Data from 36 HNC patients treated with definitive radiochemotherapy (median follow-up 30 months) was used to build a predictive model based on these parameters. All patients underwent pre-treatment CTP. 315 texture parameters were computed for three perfusion maps: blood volume, bloodmore » flow and mean transit time. The variability of texture parameters was tested with respect to non-standardizable perfusion computation factors (noise level and artery contouring) using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). The parameter with the highest ICC in the correlated group of parameters (inter-parameter Spearman correlations) was tested for its predictive value. The final model to predict tumor control was built using multivariate Cox regression analysis with backward selection of the variables. For comparison, a predictive model based on tumor volume was created. Results: Ten parameters were found to be stable in both HNC and lung cancer regarding potentially non-standardizable factors after the correction for inter-parameter correlations. In the multivariate backward selection of the variables, blood flow entropy showed a highly significant impact on tumor control (p=0.03) with concordance index (CI) of 0.76. Blood flow entropy was significantly lower in the patient group with controlled tumors at 18 months (p<0.1). The new model showed a higher concordance index compared to the tumor volume model (CI=0.68). Conclusion: The preselection of variables in the robustness study allowed building a predictive radiomics-based model of tumor control in HNC despite a small patient cohort. This model was found to be superior to the volume-based model. The project was supported by the KFSP Tumor Oxygenation of the University of Zurich, by a grant of the Center for Clinical Research, University and University Hospital Zurich and by a research grant from Merck (Schweiz) AG.« less

Prediction of enzyme activity with neural network models based on electronic and geometrical features of substrates.

PubMed

Szaleniec, Maciej

2012-01-01

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are introduced as robust and versatile tools in quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling. Their application to the modeling of enzyme reactivity is discussed, along with methodological issues. Methods of input variable selection, optimization of network internal structure, data set division and model validation are discussed. The application of ANNs in the modeling of enzyme activity over the last 20 years is briefly recounted. The discussed methodology is exemplified by the case of ethylbenzene dehydrogenase (EBDH). Intelligent Problem Solver and genetic algorithms are applied for input vector selection, whereas k-means clustering is used to partition the data into training and test cases. The obtained models exhibit high correlation between the predicted and experimental values (R(2) > 0.9). Sensitivity analyses and study of the response curves are used as tools for the physicochemical interpretation of the models in terms of the EBDH reaction mechanism. Neural networks are shown to be a versatile tool for the construction of robust QSAR models that can be applied to a range of aspects important in drug design and the prediction of biological activity.

Robust linear discriminant models to solve financial crisis in banking sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Yai-Fung; Yahaya, Sharipah Soaad Syed; Idris, Faoziah; Ali, Hazlina; Omar, Zurni

2014-12-01

Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is a widely-used technique in patterns classification via an equation which will minimize the probability of misclassifying cases into their respective categories. However, the performance of classical estimators in LDA highly depends on the assumptions of normality and homoscedasticity. Several robust estimators in LDA such as Minimum Covariance Determinant (MCD), S-estimators and Minimum Volume Ellipsoid (MVE) are addressed by many authors to alleviate the problem of non-robustness of the classical estimates. In this paper, we investigate on the financial crisis of the Malaysian banking institutions using robust LDA and classical LDA methods. Our objective is to distinguish the "distress" and "non-distress" banks in Malaysia by using the LDA models. Hit ratio is used to validate the accuracy predictive of LDA models. The performance of LDA is evaluated by estimating the misclassification rate via apparent error rate. The results and comparisons show that the robust estimators provide a better performance than the classical estimators for LDA.

Improving Robustness of Hydrologic Ensemble Predictions Through Probabilistic Pre- and Post-Processing in Sequential Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Ancell, B. C.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.

2018-03-01

Data assimilation using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been increasingly recognized as a promising tool for probabilistic hydrologic predictions. However, little effort has been made to conduct the pre- and post-processing of assimilation experiments, posing a significant challenge in achieving the best performance of hydrologic predictions. This paper presents a unified data assimilation framework for improving the robustness of hydrologic ensemble predictions. Statistical pre-processing of assimilation experiments is conducted through the factorial design and analysis to identify the best EnKF settings with maximized performance. After the data assimilation operation, statistical post-processing analysis is also performed through the factorial polynomial chaos expansion to efficiently address uncertainties in hydrologic predictions, as well as to explicitly reveal potential interactions among model parameters and their contributions to the predictive accuracy. In addition, the Gaussian anamorphosis is used to establish a seamless bridge between data assimilation and uncertainty quantification of hydrologic predictions. Both synthetic and real data assimilation experiments are carried out to demonstrate feasibility and applicability of the proposed methodology in the Guadalupe River basin, Texas. Results suggest that statistical pre- and post-processing of data assimilation experiments provide meaningful insights into the dynamic behavior of hydrologic systems and enhance robustness of hydrologic ensemble predictions.

Near infrared spectroscopy to estimate the temperature reached on burned soils: strategies to develop robust models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerrero, César; Pedrosa, Elisabete T.; Pérez-Bejarano, Andrea; Keizer, Jan Jacob

2014-05-01

The temperature reached on soils is an important parameter needed to describe the wildfire effects. However, the methods for measure the temperature reached on burned soils have been poorly developed. Recently, the use of the near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has been pointed as a valuable tool for this purpose. The NIR spectrum of a soil sample contains information of the organic matter (quantity and quality), clay (quantity and quality), minerals (such as carbonates and iron oxides) and water contents. Some of these components are modified by the heat, and each temperature causes a group of changes, leaving a typical fingerprint on the NIR spectrum. This technique needs the use of a model (or calibration) where the changes in the NIR spectra are related with the temperature reached. For the development of the model, several aliquots are heated at known temperatures, and used as standards in the calibration set. This model offers the possibility to make estimations of the temperature reached on a burned sample from its NIR spectrum. However, the estimation of the temperature reached using NIR spectroscopy is due to changes in several components, and cannot be attributed to changes in a unique soil component. Thus, we can estimate the temperature reached by the interaction between temperature and the thermo-sensible soil components. In addition, we cannot expect the uniform distribution of these components, even at small scale. Consequently, the proportion of these soil components can vary spatially across the site. This variation will be present in the samples used to construct the model and also in the samples affected by the wildfire. Therefore, the strategies followed to develop robust models should be focused to manage this expected variation. In this work we compared the prediction accuracy of models constructed with different approaches. These approaches were designed to provide insights about how to distribute the efforts needed for the development of robust models, since this step is the bottle-neck of this technique. In the first approach, a plot-scale model was used to predict the temperature reached in samples collected in other plots from the same site. In a plot-scale model, all the heated aliquots come from a unique plot-scale sample. As expected, the results obtained with this approach were deceptive, because this approach was assuming that a plot-scale model would be enough to represent the whole variability of the site. The accuracy (measured as the root mean square error of prediction, thereinafter RMSEP) was 86ºC, and the bias was also high (>30ºC). In the second approach, the temperatures predicted through several plot-scale models were averaged. The accuracy was improved (RMSEP=65ºC) respect the first approach, because the variability from several plots was considered and biased predictions were partially counterbalanced. However, this approach implies more efforts, since several plot-scale models are needed. In the third approach, the predictions were obtained with site-scale models. These models were constructed with aliquots from several plots. In this case, the results were accurate, since the RMSEP was around 40ºC, the bias was very small (<1ºC) and the R2 was 0.92. As expected, this approach clearly outperformed the second approach, in spite of the fact that the same efforts were needed. In a plot-scale model, only one interaction between temperature and soil components was modelled. However, several different interactions between temperature and soil components were present in the calibration matrix of a site-scale model. Consequently, the site-scale models were able to model the temperature reached excluding the influence of the differences in soil composition, resulting in more robust models respect that variation. Summarizing, the results were highlighting the importance of an adequate strategy to develop robust and accurate models with moderate efforts, and how a wrong strategy can result in deceptive predictions.

Microarray-based cancer prediction using soft computing approach.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaosheng; Gotoh, Osamu

2009-05-26

One of the difficulties in using gene expression profiles to predict cancer is how to effectively select a few informative genes to construct accurate prediction models from thousands or ten thousands of genes. We screen highly discriminative genes and gene pairs to create simple prediction models involved in single genes or gene pairs on the basis of soft computing approach and rough set theory. Accurate cancerous prediction is obtained when we apply the simple prediction models for four cancerous gene expression datasets: CNS tumor, colon tumor, lung cancer and DLBCL. Some genes closely correlated with the pathogenesis of specific or general cancers are identified. In contrast with other models, our models are simple, effective and robust. Meanwhile, our models are interpretable for they are based on decision rules. Our results demonstrate that very simple models may perform well on cancerous molecular prediction and important gene markers of cancer can be detected if the gene selection approach is chosen reasonably.

Planning for robust reserve networks using uncertainty analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moilanen, A.; Runge, M.C.; Elith, Jane; Tyre, A.; Carmel, Y.; Fegraus, E.; Wintle, B.A.; Burgman, M.; Ben-Haim, Y.

2006-01-01

Planning land-use for biodiversity conservation frequently involves computer-assisted reserve selection algorithms. Typically such algorithms operate on matrices of species presence?absence in sites, or on species-specific distributions of model predicted probabilities of occurrence in grid cells. There are practically always errors in input data?erroneous species presence?absence data, structural and parametric uncertainty in predictive habitat models, and lack of correspondence between temporal presence and long-run persistence. Despite these uncertainties, typical reserve selection methods proceed as if there is no uncertainty in the data or models. Having two conservation options of apparently equal biological value, one would prefer the option whose value is relatively insensitive to errors in planning inputs. In this work we show how uncertainty analysis for reserve planning can be implemented within a framework of information-gap decision theory, generating reserve designs that are robust to uncertainty. Consideration of uncertainty involves modifications to the typical objective functions used in reserve selection. Search for robust-optimal reserve structures can still be implemented via typical reserve selection optimization techniques, including stepwise heuristics, integer-programming and stochastic global search.

A robust nonparametric framework for reconstruction of stochastic differential equation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajabzadeh, Yalda; Rezaie, Amir Hossein; Amindavar, Hamidreza

2016-05-01

In this paper, we employ a nonparametric framework to robustly estimate the functional forms of drift and diffusion terms from discrete stationary time series. The proposed method significantly improves the accuracy of the parameter estimation. In this framework, drift and diffusion coefficients are modeled through orthogonal Legendre polynomials. We employ the least squares regression approach along with the Euler-Maruyama approximation method to learn coefficients of stochastic model. Next, a numerical discrete construction of mean squared prediction error (MSPE) is established to calculate the order of Legendre polynomials in drift and diffusion terms. We show numerically that the new method is robust against the variation in sample size and sampling rate. The performance of our method in comparison with the kernel-based regression (KBR) method is demonstrated through simulation and real data. In case of real dataset, we test our method for discriminating healthy electroencephalogram (EEG) signals from epilepsy ones. We also demonstrate the efficiency of the method through prediction in the financial data. In both simulation and real data, our algorithm outperforms the KBR method.

Automated combinatorial method for fast and robust prediction of lattice thermal conductivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plata, Jose J.; Nath, Pinku; Usanmaz, Demet; Toher, Cormac; Fornari, Marco; Buongiorno Nardelli, Marco; Curtarolo, Stefano

The lack of computationally inexpensive and accurate ab-initio based methodologies to predict lattice thermal conductivity, κl, without computing the anharmonic force constants or performing time-consuming ab-initio molecular dynamics, is one of the obstacles preventing the accelerated discovery of new high or low thermal conductivity materials. The Slack equation is the best alternative to other more expensive methodologies but is highly dependent on two variables: the acoustic Debye temperature, θa, and the Grüneisen parameter, γ. Furthermore, different definitions can be used for these two quantities depending on the model or approximation. Here, we present a combinatorial approach based on the quasi-harmonic approximation to elucidate which definitions of both variables produce the best predictions of κl. A set of 42 compounds was used to test accuracy and robustness of all possible combinations. This approach is ideal for obtaining more accurate values than fast screening models based on the Debye model, while being significantly less expensive than methodologies that solve the Boltzmann transport equation.

Predicting carcinogenicity of diverse chemicals using probabilistic neural network modeling approaches

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, Kunwar P., E-mail: kpsingh_52@yahoo.com; Environmental Chemistry Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Toxicology Research, Post Box 80, Mahatma Gandhi Marg, Lucknow 226 001; Gupta, Shikha

Robust global models capable of discriminating positive and non-positive carcinogens; and predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals in rodents were developed. The dataset of 834 structurally diverse chemicals extracted from Carcinogenic Potency Database (CPDB) was used which contained 466 positive and 368 non-positive carcinogens. Twelve non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors were derived. Structural diversity of the chemicals and nonlinearity in the data were evaluated using Tanimoto similarity index and Brock–Dechert–Scheinkman statistics. Probabilistic neural network (PNN) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models were constructed for classification and function optimization problems using the carcinogenicity end point in rat. Validation of the models wasmore » performed using the internal and external procedures employing a wide series of statistical checks. PNN constructed using five descriptors rendered classification accuracy of 92.09% in complete rat data. The PNN model rendered classification accuracies of 91.77%, 80.70% and 92.08% in mouse, hamster and pesticide data, respectively. The GRNN constructed with nine descriptors yielded correlation coefficient of 0.896 between the measured and predicted carcinogenic potency with mean squared error (MSE) of 0.44 in complete rat data. The rat carcinogenicity model (GRNN) applied to the mouse and hamster data yielded correlation coefficient and MSE of 0.758, 0.71 and 0.760, 0.46, respectively. The results suggest for wide applicability of the inter-species models in predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals. Both the PNN and GRNN (inter-species) models constructed here can be useful tools in predicting the carcinogenicity of new chemicals for regulatory purposes. - Graphical abstract: Figure (a) shows classification accuracies (positive and non-positive carcinogens) in rat, mouse, hamster, and pesticide data yielded by optimal PNN model. Figure (b) shows generalization and predictive abilities of the interspecies GRNN model to predict the carcinogenic potency of diverse chemicals. - Highlights: • Global robust models constructed for carcinogenicity prediction of diverse chemicals. • Tanimoto/BDS test revealed structural diversity of chemicals and nonlinearity in data. • PNN/GRNN successfully predicted carcinogenicity/carcinogenic potency of chemicals. • Developed interspecies PNN/GRNN models for carcinogenicity prediction. • Proposed models can be used as tool to predict carcinogenicity of new chemicals.« less

Quantitative Structure--Activity Relationship Modeling of Rat Acute Toxicity by Oral Exposure

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Few Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) studies have successfully modeled large, diverse rodent toxicity endpoints. Objective: In this study, a combinatorial QSAR approach has been employed for the creation of robust and predictive models of acute toxi...

Understanding seasonal variability of uncertainty in hydrological prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Wang, Q. J.

2012-04-01

Understanding uncertainty in hydrological prediction can be highly valuable for improving the reliability of streamflow prediction. In this study, a monthly water balance model, WAPABA, in a Bayesian joint probability with error models are presented to investigate the seasonal dependency of prediction error structure. A seasonal invariant error model, analogous to traditional time series analysis, uses constant parameters for model error and account for no seasonal variations. In contrast, a seasonal variant error model uses a different set of parameters for bias, variance and autocorrelation for each individual calendar month. Potential connection amongst model parameters from similar months is not considered within the seasonal variant model and could result in over-fitting and over-parameterization. A hierarchical error model further applies some distributional restrictions on model parameters within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. An iterative algorithm is implemented to expedite the maximum a posterior (MAP) estimation of a hierarchical error model. Three error models are applied to forecasting streamflow at a catchment in southeast Australia in a cross-validation analysis. This study also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical tools to compare the predictive skills of different error models. From probability integral transform histograms and other diagnostic graphs, the hierarchical error model conforms better to reliability when compared to the seasonal invariant error model. The hierarchical error model also generally provides the most accurate mean prediction in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient and the best probabilistic prediction in terms of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). The model parameters of the seasonal variant error model are very sensitive to each cross validation, while the hierarchical error model produces much more robust and reliable model parameters. Furthermore, the result of the hierarchical error model shows that most of model parameters are not seasonal variant except for error bias. The seasonal variant error model is likely to use more parameters than necessary to maximize the posterior likelihood. The model flexibility and robustness indicates that the hierarchical error model has great potential for future streamflow predictions.

No-Reference Image Quality Assessment by Wide-Perceptual-Domain Scorer Ensemble Method.

PubMed

Liu, Tsung-Jung; Liu, Kuan-Hsien

2018-03-01

A no-reference (NR) learning-based approach to assess image quality is presented in this paper. The devised features are extracted from wide perceptual domains, including brightness, contrast, color, distortion, and texture. These features are used to train a model (scorer) which can predict scores. The scorer selection algorithms are utilized to help simplify the proposed system. In the final stage, the ensemble method is used to combine the prediction results from selected scorers. Two multiple-scale versions of the proposed approach are also presented along with the single-scale one. They turn out to have better performances than the original single-scale method. Because of having features from five different domains at multiple image scales and using the outputs (scores) from selected score prediction models as features for multi-scale or cross-scale fusion (i.e., ensemble), the proposed NR image quality assessment models are robust with respect to more than 24 image distortion types. They also can be used on the evaluation of images with authentic distortions. The extensive experiments on three well-known and representative databases confirm the performance robustness of our proposed model.

Aeroservoelastic Uncertainty Model Identification from Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Martin J.

2001-01-01

Uncertainty modeling is a critical element in the estimation of robust stability margins for stability boundary prediction and robust flight control system development. There has been a serious deficiency to date in aeroservoelastic data analysis with attention to uncertainty modeling. Uncertainty can be estimated from flight data using both parametric and nonparametric identification techniques. The model validation problem addressed in this paper is to identify aeroservoelastic models with associated uncertainty structures from a limited amount of controlled excitation inputs over an extensive flight envelope. The challenge to this problem is to update analytical models from flight data estimates while also deriving non-conservative uncertainty descriptions consistent with the flight data. Multisine control surface command inputs and control system feedbacks are used as signals in a wavelet-based modal parameter estimation procedure for model updates. Transfer function estimates are incorporated in a robust minimax estimation scheme to get input-output parameters and error bounds consistent with the data and model structure. Uncertainty estimates derived from the data in this manner provide an appropriate and relevant representation for model development and robust stability analysis. This model-plus-uncertainty identification procedure is applied to aeroservoelastic flight data from the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center F-18 Systems Research Aircraft.

Are genetically robust regulatory networks dynamically different from random ones?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sevim, Volkan; Rikvold, Per Arne

We study a genetic regulatory network model developed to demonstrate that genetic robustness can evolve through stabilizing selection for optimal phenotypes. We report preliminary results on whether such selection could result in a reorganization of the state space of the system. For the chosen parameters, the evolution moves the system slightly toward the more ordered part of the phase diagram. We also find that strong memory effects cause the Derrida annealed approximation to give erroneous predictions about the model's phase diagram.

Robust artificial neural network for reliability and sensitivity analyses of complex non-linear systems.

PubMed

Oparaji, Uchenna; Sheu, Rong-Jiun; Bankhead, Mark; Austin, Jonathan; Patelli, Edoardo

2017-12-01

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are commonly used in place of expensive models to reduce the computational burden required for uncertainty quantification, reliability and sensitivity analyses. ANN with selected architecture is trained with the back-propagation algorithm from few data representatives of the input/output relationship of the underlying model of interest. However, different performing ANNs might be obtained with the same training data as a result of the random initialization of the weight parameters in each of the network, leading to an uncertainty in selecting the best performing ANN. On the other hand, using cross-validation to select the best performing ANN based on the ANN with the highest R 2 value can lead to biassing in the prediction. This is as a result of the fact that the use of R 2 cannot determine if the prediction made by ANN is biased. Additionally, R 2 does not indicate if a model is adequate, as it is possible to have a low R 2 for a good model and a high R 2 for a bad model. Hence, in this paper, we propose an approach to improve the robustness of a prediction made by ANN. The approach is based on a systematic combination of identical trained ANNs, by coupling the Bayesian framework and model averaging. Additionally, the uncertainties of the robust prediction derived from the approach are quantified in terms of confidence intervals. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach, two synthetic numerical examples are presented. Finally, the proposed approach is used to perform a reliability and sensitivity analyses on a process simulation model of a UK nuclear effluent treatment plant developed by National Nuclear Laboratory (NNL) and treated in this study as a black-box employing a set of training data as a test case. This model has been extensively validated against plant and experimental data and used to support the UK effluent discharge strategy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

OPERA: A free and open source QSAR tool for predicting physicochemical properties and environmental fate endpoints

EPA Science Inventory

Collecting the chemical structures and data for necessary QSAR modeling is facilitated by available public databases and open data. However, QSAR model performance is dependent on the quality of data and modeling methodology used. This study developed robust QSAR models for physi...

A Model-Based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew J.; Goebel, Kai

2011-01-01

Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain knowledge of the system, its components, and how they fail by casting the underlying physical phenomena in a physics-based model that is derived from first principles. Uncertainty cannot be avoided in prediction, therefore, algorithms are employed that help in managing these uncertainties. The particle filtering algorithm has become a popular choice for model-based prognostics due to its wide applicability, ease of implementation, and support for uncertainty management. We develop a general model-based prognostics methodology within a robust probabilistic framework using particle filters. As a case study, we consider a pneumatic valve from the Space Shuttle cryogenic refueling system. We develop a detailed physics-based model of the pneumatic valve, and perform comprehensive simulation experiments to illustrate our prognostics approach and evaluate its effectiveness and robustness. The approach is demonstrated using historical pneumatic valve data from the refueling system.

Robust model predictive control of nonlinear systems with unmodeled dynamics and bounded uncertainties based on neural networks.

PubMed

Yan, Zheng; Wang, Jun

2014-03-01

This paper presents a neural network approach to robust model predictive control (MPC) for constrained discrete-time nonlinear systems with unmodeled dynamics affected by bounded uncertainties. The exact nonlinear model of underlying process is not precisely known, but a partially known nominal model is available. This partially known nonlinear model is first decomposed to an affine term plus an unknown high-order term via Jacobian linearization. The linearization residue combined with unmodeled dynamics is then modeled using an extreme learning machine via supervised learning. The minimax methodology is exploited to deal with bounded uncertainties. The minimax optimization problem is reformulated as a convex minimization problem and is iteratively solved by a two-layer recurrent neural network. The proposed neurodynamic approach to nonlinear MPC improves the computational efficiency and sheds a light for real-time implementability of MPC technology. Simulation results are provided to substantiate the effectiveness and characteristics of the proposed approach.

Robust diagnosis of non-Hodgkin lymphoma phenotypes validated on gene expression data from different laboratories.

PubMed

Bhanot, Gyan; Alexe, Gabriela; Levine, Arnold J; Stolovitzky, Gustavo

2005-01-01

A major challenge in cancer diagnosis from microarray data is the need for robust, accurate, classification models which are independent of the analysis techniques used and can combine data from different laboratories. We propose such a classification scheme originally developed for phenotype identification from mass spectrometry data. The method uses a robust multivariate gene selection procedure and combines the results of several machine learning tools trained on raw and pattern data to produce an accurate meta-classifier. We illustrate and validate our method by applying it to gene expression datasets: the oligonucleotide HuGeneFL microarray dataset of Shipp et al. (www.genome.wi.mit.du/MPR/lymphoma) and the Hu95Av2 Affymetrix dataset (DallaFavera's laboratory, Columbia University). Our pattern-based meta-classification technique achieves higher predictive accuracies than each of the individual classifiers , is robust against data perturbations and provides subsets of related predictive genes. Our techniques predict that combinations of some genes in the p53 pathway are highly predictive of phenotype. In particular, we find that in 80% of DLBCL cases the mRNA level of at least one of the three genes p53, PLK1 and CDK2 is elevated, while in 80% of FL cases, the mRNA level of at most one of them is elevated.

Info-gap management of public health Policy for TB with HIV-prevalence and epidemiological uncertainty

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Formulation and evaluation of public health policy commonly employs science-based mathematical models. For instance, epidemiological dynamics of TB is dominated, in general, by flow between actively and latently infected populations. Thus modelling is central in planning public health intervention. However, models are highly uncertain because they are based on observations that are geographically and temporally distinct from the population to which they are applied. Aims We aim to demonstrate the advantages of info-gap theory, a non-probabilistic approach to severe uncertainty when worst cases cannot be reliably identified and probability distributions are unreliable or unavailable. Info-gap is applied here to mathematical modelling of epidemics and analysis of public health decision-making. Methods Applying info-gap robustness analysis to tuberculosis/HIV (TB/HIV) epidemics, we illustrate the critical role of incorporating uncertainty in formulating recommendations for interventions. Robustness is assessed as the magnitude of uncertainty that can be tolerated by a given intervention. We illustrate the methodology by exploring interventions that alter the rates of diagnosis, cure, relapse and HIV infection. Results We demonstrate several policy implications. Equivalence among alternative rates of diagnosis and relapse are identified. The impact of initial TB and HIV prevalence on the robustness to uncertainty is quantified. In some configurations, increased aggressiveness of intervention improves the predicted outcome but also reduces the robustness to uncertainty. Similarly, predicted outcomes may be better at larger target times, but may also be more vulnerable to model error. Conclusions The info-gap framework is useful for managing model uncertainty and is attractive when uncertainties on model parameters are extreme. When a public health model underlies guidelines, info-gap decision theory provides valuable insight into the confidence of achieving agreed-upon goals. PMID:23249291

Info-gap management of public health Policy for TB with HIV-prevalence and epidemiological uncertainty.

PubMed

Ben-Haim, Yakov; Dacso, Clifford C; Zetola, Nicola M

2012-12-19

Formulation and evaluation of public health policy commonly employs science-based mathematical models. For instance, epidemiological dynamics of TB is dominated, in general, by flow between actively and latently infected populations. Thus modelling is central in planning public health intervention. However, models are highly uncertain because they are based on observations that are geographically and temporally distinct from the population to which they are applied. We aim to demonstrate the advantages of info-gap theory, a non-probabilistic approach to severe uncertainty when worst cases cannot be reliably identified and probability distributions are unreliable or unavailable. Info-gap is applied here to mathematical modelling of epidemics and analysis of public health decision-making. Applying info-gap robustness analysis to tuberculosis/HIV (TB/HIV) epidemics, we illustrate the critical role of incorporating uncertainty in formulating recommendations for interventions. Robustness is assessed as the magnitude of uncertainty that can be tolerated by a given intervention. We illustrate the methodology by exploring interventions that alter the rates of diagnosis, cure, relapse and HIV infection. We demonstrate several policy implications. Equivalence among alternative rates of diagnosis and relapse are identified. The impact of initial TB and HIV prevalence on the robustness to uncertainty is quantified. In some configurations, increased aggressiveness of intervention improves the predicted outcome but also reduces the robustness to uncertainty. Similarly, predicted outcomes may be better at larger target times, but may also be more vulnerable to model error. The info-gap framework is useful for managing model uncertainty and is attractive when uncertainties on model parameters are extreme. When a public health model underlies guidelines, info-gap decision theory provides valuable insight into the confidence of achieving agreed-upon goals.

The VSGB 2.0 Model: A Next Generation Energy Model for High Resolution Protein Structure Modeling

PubMed Central

Li, Jianing; Abel, Robert; Zhu, Kai; Cao, Yixiang; Zhao, Suwen; Friesner, Richard A.

2011-01-01

A novel energy model (VSGB 2.0) for high resolution protein structure modeling is described, which features an optimized implicit solvent model as well as physics-based corrections for hydrogen bonding, π-π interactions, self-contact interactions and hydrophobic interactions. Parameters of the VSGB 2.0 model were fit to a crystallographic database of 2239 single side chain and 100 11–13 residue loop predictions. Combined with an advanced method of sampling and a robust algorithm for protonation state assignment, the VSGB 2.0 model was validated by predicting 115 super long loops up to 20 residues. Despite the dramatically increasing difficulty in reconstructing longer loops, a high accuracy was achieved: all of the lowest energy conformations have global backbone RMSDs better than 2.0 Å from the native conformations. Average global backbone RMSDs of the predictions are 0.51, 0.63, 0.70, 0.62, 0.80, 1.41, and 1.59 Å for 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 residue loop predictions, respectively. When these results are corrected for possible statistical bias as explained in the text, the average global backbone RMSDs are 0.61, 0.71, 0.86, 0.62, 1.06, 1.67, and 1.59 Å. Given the precision and robustness of the calculations, we believe that the VSGB 2.0 model is suitable to tackle “real” problems, such as biological function modeling and structure-based drug discovery. PMID:21905107

Ancient numerical daemons of conceptual hydrological modeling: 2. Impact of time stepping schemes on model analysis and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.

2010-10-01

Despite the widespread use of conceptual hydrological models in environmental research and operations, they remain frequently implemented using numerically unreliable methods. This paper considers the impact of the time stepping scheme on model analysis (sensitivity analysis, parameter optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo-based uncertainty estimation) and prediction. It builds on the companion paper (Clark and Kavetski, 2010), which focused on numerical accuracy, fidelity, and computational efficiency. Empirical and theoretical analysis of eight distinct time stepping schemes for six different hydrological models in 13 diverse basins demonstrates several critical conclusions. (1) Unreliable time stepping schemes, in particular, fixed-step explicit methods, suffer from troublesome numerical artifacts that severely deform the objective function of the model. These deformations are not rare isolated instances but can arise in any model structure, in any catchment, and under common hydroclimatic conditions. (2) Sensitivity analysis can be severely contaminated by numerical errors, often to the extent that it becomes dominated by the sensitivity of truncation errors rather than the model equations. (3) Robust time stepping schemes generally produce "better behaved" objective functions, free of spurious local optima, and with sufficient numerical continuity to permit parameter optimization using efficient quasi Newton methods. When implemented within a multistart framework, modern Newton-type optimizers are robust even when started far from the optima and provide valuable diagnostic insights not directly available from evolutionary global optimizers. (4) Unreliable time stepping schemes lead to inconsistent and biased inferences of the model parameters and internal states. (5) Even when interactions between hydrological parameters and numerical errors provide "the right result for the wrong reason" and the calibrated model performance appears adequate, unreliable time stepping schemes make the model unnecessarily fragile in predictive mode, undermining validation assessments and operational use. Erroneous or misleading conclusions of model analysis and prediction arising from numerical artifacts in hydrological models are intolerable, especially given that robust numerics are accepted as mainstream in other areas of science and engineering. We hope that the vivid empirical findings will encourage the conceptual hydrological community to close its Pandora's box of numerical problems, paving the way for more meaningful model application and interpretation.

Minimizing effects of methodological decisions on interpretation and prediction in species distribution studies: An example with background selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Talbert, Marian; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Brown, Cynthia; Kumar, Sunil; Manier, Daniel; Talbert, Colin; Holcombe, Tracy R.

2017-01-01

Evaluating the conditions where a species can persist is an important question in ecology both to understand tolerances of organisms and to predict distributions across landscapes. Presence data combined with background or pseudo-absence locations are commonly used with species distribution modeling to develop these relationships. However, there is not a standard method to generate background or pseudo-absence locations, and method choice affects model outcomes. We evaluated combinations of both model algorithms (simple and complex generalized linear models, multivariate adaptive regression splines, Maxent, boosted regression trees, and random forest) and background methods (random, minimum convex polygon, and continuous and binary kernel density estimator (KDE)) to assess the sensitivity of model outcomes to choices made. We evaluated six questions related to model results, including five beyond the common comparison of model accuracy assessment metrics (biological interpretability of response curves, cross-validation robustness, independent data accuracy and robustness, and prediction consistency). For our case study with cheatgrass in the western US, random forest was least sensitive to background choice and the binary KDE method was least sensitive to model algorithm choice. While this outcome may not hold for other locations or species, the methods we used can be implemented to help determine appropriate methodologies for particular research questions.

Prediction of biochar yield from cattle manure pyrolysis via least squares support vector machine intelligent approach.

PubMed

Cao, Hongliang; Xin, Ya; Yuan, Qiaoxia

2016-02-01

To predict conveniently the biochar yield from cattle manure pyrolysis, intelligent modeling approach was introduced in this research. A traditional artificial neural networks (ANN) model and a novel least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) model were developed. For the identification and prediction evaluation of the models, a data set with 33 experimental data was used, which were obtained using a laboratory-scale fixed bed reaction system. The results demonstrated that the intelligent modeling approach is greatly convenient and effective for the prediction of the biochar yield. In particular, the novel LS-SVM model has a more satisfying predicting performance and its robustness is better than the traditional ANN model. The introduction and application of the LS-SVM modeling method gives a successful example, which is a good reference for the modeling study of cattle manure pyrolysis process, even other similar processes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnosis of streamflow prediction skills in Oregon using Hydrologic Landscape Classification

EPA Science Inventory

A complete understanding of why rainfall-runoff models provide good streamflow predictions at catchments in some regions, but fail to do so in other regions, has still not been achieved. Here, we argue that a hydrologic classification system is a robust conceptual tool that is w...

Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tietsche, S.; Day, J. J.; Guemas, V.; Hurlin, W. J.; Keeley, S. P. E.; Matei, D.; Msadek, R.; Collins, M.; Hawkins, E.

2014-02-01

We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to 3 years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.

The cortisol reactivity threshold model: Direction of trait rumination and cortisol reactivity association varies with stressor severity.

PubMed

Vrshek-Schallhorn, Suzanne; Avery, Bradley M; Ditcheva, Maria; Sapuram, Vaibhav R

2018-06-01

Various internalizing risk factors predict, in separate studies, both augmented and reduced cortisol responding to lab-induced stress. Stressor severity appears key: We tested whether heightened trait-like internalizing risk (here, trait rumination) predicts heightened cortisol reactivity under modest objective stress, but conversely predicts reduced reactivity under more robust objective stress. Thus, we hypothesized that trait rumination would interact with a curvilinear (quadratic) function of stress severity to predict cortisol reactivity. Evidence comes from 85 currently non-depressed emerging adults who completed either a non-stressful control protocol (n = 29), an intermediate difficulty Trier Social Stress Test (TSST; n = 26), or a robustly stressful negative evaluative TSST (n = 30). Latent growth curve models evaluated relationships between trait rumination and linear and quadratic effects of stressor severity on the change in cortisol and negative affect over time. Among other findings, a significant Trait Rumination x Quadratic Stress Severity interaction effect for cortisol's Quadratic Trend of Time (i.e., reactivity, B = .125, p = .017) supported the hypothesis. Rumination predicted greater cortisol reactivity to intermediate stress (r p  = .400, p = .043), but blunted reactivity to more robust negative evaluative stress (r p  = -0.379, p = 0.039). Contrasting hypotheses, negative affective reactivity increased independently of rumination as stressor severity increased (B = .453, p = 0.044). The direction of the relationship between an internalizing risk factor (trait rumination) and cortisol reactivity varies as a function of stressor severity. We propose the Cortisol Reactivity Threshold Model, which may help reconcile several divergent reactivity literatures and has implications for internalizing psychopathology, particularly depression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robustness and Uncertainty: Applications for Policy in Climate and Hydrological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fields, A. L., III

2015-12-01

Policymakers must often decide how to proceed when presented with conflicting simulation data from hydrological, climatological, and geological models. While laboratory sciences often appeal to the reproducibility of results to argue for the validity of their conclusions, simulations cannot use this strategy for a number of pragmatic and methodological reasons. However, robustness of predictions and causal structures can serve the same function for simulations as reproducibility does for laboratory experiments and field observations in either adjudicating between conflicting results or showing that there is insufficient justification to externally validate the results. Additionally, an interpretation of the argument from robustness is presented that involves appealing to the convergence of many well-built and diverse models rather than the more common version which involves appealing to the probability that one of a set of models is likely to be true. This interpretation strengthens the case for taking robustness as an additional requirement for the validation of simulation results and ultimately supports the idea that computer simulations can provide information about the world that is just as trustworthy as data from more traditional laboratory studies and field observations. Understanding the importance of robust results for the validation of simulation data is especially important for policymakers making decisions on the basis of potentially conflicting models. Applications will span climate, hydrological, and hydroclimatological models.

Robust tumor morphometry in multispectral fluorescence microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabesh, Ali; Vengrenyuk, Yevgen; Teverovskiy, Mikhail; Khan, Faisal M.; Sapir, Marina; Powell, Douglas; Mesa-Tejada, Ricardo; Donovan, Michael J.; Fernandez, Gerardo

2009-02-01

Morphological and architectural characteristics of primary tissue compartments, such as epithelial nuclei (EN) and cytoplasm, provide important cues for cancer diagnosis, prognosis, and therapeutic response prediction. We propose two feature sets for the robust quantification of these characteristics in multiplex immunofluorescence (IF) microscopy images of prostate biopsy specimens. To enable feature extraction, EN and cytoplasm regions were first segmented from the IF images. Then, feature sets consisting of the characteristics of the minimum spanning tree (MST) connecting the EN and the fractal dimension (FD) of gland boundaries were obtained from the segmented compartments. We demonstrated the utility of the proposed features in prostate cancer recurrence prediction on a multi-institution cohort of 1027 patients. Univariate analysis revealed that both FD and one of the MST features were highly effective for predicting cancer recurrence (p <= 0.0001). In multivariate analysis, an MST feature was selected for a model incorporating clinical and image features. The model achieved a concordance index (CI) of 0.73 on the validation set, which was significantly higher than the CI of 0.69 for the standard multivariate model based solely on clinical features currently used in clinical practice (p < 0.0001). The contributions of this work are twofold. First, it is the first demonstration of the utility of the proposed features in morphometric analysis of IF images. Second, this is the largest scale study of the efficacy and robustness of the proposed features in prostate cancer prognosis.

Predicting Soil Salinity with Vis–NIR Spectra after Removing the Effects of Soil Moisture Using External Parameter Orthogonalization

PubMed Central

Liu, Ya; Pan, Xianzhang; Wang, Changkun; Li, Yanli; Shi, Rongjie

2015-01-01

Robust models for predicting soil salinity that use visible and near-infrared (vis–NIR) reflectance spectroscopy are needed to better quantify soil salinity in agricultural fields. Currently available models are not sufficiently robust for variable soil moisture contents. Thus, we used external parameter orthogonalization (EPO), which effectively projects spectra onto the subspace orthogonal to unwanted variation, to remove the variations caused by an external factor, e.g., the influences of soil moisture on spectral reflectance. In this study, 570 spectra between 380 and 2400 nm were obtained from soils with various soil moisture contents and salt concentrations in the laboratory; 3 soil types × 10 salt concentrations × 19 soil moisture levels were used. To examine the effectiveness of EPO, we compared the partial least squares regression (PLSR) results established from spectra with and without EPO correction. The EPO method effectively removed the effects of moisture, and the accuracy and robustness of the soil salt contents (SSCs) prediction model, which was built using the EPO-corrected spectra under various soil moisture conditions, were significantly improved relative to the spectra without EPO correction. This study contributes to the removal of soil moisture effects from soil salinity estimations when using vis–NIR reflectance spectroscopy and can assist others in quantifying soil salinity in the future. PMID:26468645

Prospects of Genomic Prediction in the USDA Soybean Germplasm Collection: Historical Data Creates Robust Models for Enhancing Selection of Accessions.

PubMed

Jarquin, Diego; Specht, James; Lorenz, Aaron

2016-08-09

The identification and mobilization of useful genetic variation from germplasm banks for use in breeding programs is critical for future genetic gain and protection against crop pests. Plummeting costs of next-generation sequencing and genotyping is revolutionizing the way in which researchers and breeders interface with plant germplasm collections. An example of this is the high density genotyping of the entire USDA Soybean Germplasm Collection. We assessed the usefulness of 50K single nucleotide polymorphism data collected on 18,480 domesticated soybean (Glycine max) accessions and vast historical phenotypic data for developing genomic prediction models for protein, oil, and yield. Resulting genomic prediction models explained an appreciable amount of the variation in accession performance in independent validation trials, with correlations between predicted and observed reaching up to 0.92 for oil and protein and 0.79 for yield. The optimization of training set design was explored using a series of cross-validation schemes. It was found that the target population and environment need to be well represented in the training set. Second, genomic prediction training sets appear to be robust to the presence of data from diverse geographical locations and genetic clusters. This finding, however, depends on the influence of shattering and lodging, and may be specific to soybean with its presence of maturity groups. The distribution of 7608 nonphenotyped accessions was examined through the application of genomic prediction models. The distribution of predictions of phenotyped accessions was representative of the distribution of predictions for nonphenotyped accessions, with no nonphenotyped accessions being predicted to fall far outside the range of predictions of phenotyped accessions. Copyright © 2016 Jarquin et al.

Modeling winter wheat phenological responses to water deficits in the Unified Plant Growth Model (UPGM) component of the spatially distributed Agricultural Ecosystem Services (AgES) model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurately predicting phenology in crop simulation models is critical for correctly simulating crop production. While extensive work in modeling phenology has focused on the temperature response function (resulting in robust phenology models), limited work on quantifying the phenological responses t...

Using spatial information about recurrence risk for robust optimization of dose-painting prescription functions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bender, Edward T.

Purpose: To develop a robust method for deriving dose-painting prescription functions using spatial information about the risk for disease recurrence. Methods: Spatial distributions of radiobiological model parameters are derived from distributions of recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. These model parameters are then used to derive optimal dose-painting prescription functions given a constant mean biologically effective dose. Results: An estimate for the optimal dose distribution can be derived based on spatial information about recurrence risk. Dose painting based on imaging markers that are moderately or poorly correlated with recurrence risk are predicted to potentially result in inferior disease control when comparedmore » the same mean biologically effective dose delivered uniformly. A robust optimization approach may partially mitigate this issue. Conclusions: The methods described here can be used to derive an estimate for a robust, patient-specific prescription function for use in dose painting. Two approximate scaling relationships were observed: First, the optimal choice for the maximum dose differential when using either a linear or two-compartment prescription function is proportional to R, where R is the Pearson correlation coefficient between a given imaging marker and recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. Second, the predicted maximum possible gain in tumor control probability for any robust optimization technique is nearly proportional to the square of R.« less

Modeling Seizure Self-Prediction: An E-Diary Study

PubMed Central

Haut, Sheryl R.; Hall, Charles B.; Borkowski, Thomas; Tennen, Howard; Lipton, Richard B.

2013-01-01

Purpose A subset of patients with epilepsy successfully self-predicted seizures in a paper diary study. We conducted an e-diary study to ensure that prediction precedes seizures, and to characterize the prodromal features and time windows that underlie self-prediction. Methods Subjects 18 or older with LRE and ≥3 seizures/month maintained an e-diary, reporting AM/PM data daily, including mood, premonitory symptoms, and all seizures. Self-prediction was rated by, “How likely are you to experience a seizure [time frame]”? Five choices ranged from almost certain (>95% chance) to very unlikely. Relative odds of seizure (OR) within time frames was examined using Poisson models with log normal random effects to adjust for multiple observations. Key Findings Nineteen subjects reported 244 eligible seizures. OR for prediction choices within 6hrs was as high as 9.31 (1.92,45.23) for “almost certain”. Prediction was most robust within 6hrs of diary entry, and remained significant up to 12hrs. For 9 best predictors, average sensitivity was 50%. Older age contributed to successful self-prediction, and self-prediction appeared to be driven by mood and premonitory symptoms. In multivariate modeling of seizure occurrence, self-prediction (2.84; 1.68,4.81), favorable change in mood (0.82; 0.67,0.99) and number of premonitory symptoms (1,11; 1.00,1.24) were significant. Significance Some persons with epilepsy can self-predict seizures. In these individuals, the odds of a seizure following a positive prediction are high. Predictions were robust, not attributable to recall bias, and were related to self awareness of mood and premonitory features. The 6-hour prediction window is suitable for the development of pre-emptive therapy. PMID:24111898

Optimizing Hyperspectral Imagery Anomaly Detection through Robust Parameter Design

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

72 3.2.1 Standard RSM Model ( y (1)) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 3.2.2 RPD Model Including N ×N ( y (2...LT surface plot for y (1) model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 3.6. LT surface plot for y (2) model...88 3.12. AutoGAD y (1) residual versus predicted plot. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 3.13

A comparison of hydrologic models for ecological flows and water availability

Treesearch

Peter V. Caldwell; Jonathan G. Kennen; Ge Sun; Julie E. Kiang; Jon B. Butcher; Michele C. Eddy; Lauren E. Hay; Jacob H. LaFontaine; Ernie F. Hain; Stacy A. C. Nelson; Steve G. McNulty

2015-01-01

Robust hydrologic models are needed to help manage water resources for healthy aquatic ecosystems and reliable water supplies for people, but there is a lack of comprehensive model comparison studies that quantify differences in streamflow predictions among model applications developed to answer management questions. We assessed differences in daily streamflow...

Brittle fracture phase-field modeling of a short-rod specimen

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Escobar, Ivana; Tupek, Michael R.; Bishop, Joseph E.

2015-09-01

Predictive simulation capabilities for modeling fracture evolution provide further insight into quantities of interest in comparison to experimental testing. Based on the variational approach to fracture, the advent of phase-field modeling achieves the goal to robustly model fracture for brittle materials and captures complex crack topologies in three dimensions.

A computer model for predicting grapevine cold hardiness

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We developed a robust computer model of grapevine bud cold hardiness that will aid in the anticipation of and response to potential injury from fluctuations in winter temperature and from extreme cold events. The model uses time steps of 1 day along with the measured daily mean air temperature to ca...

Circadian Phase Resetting via Single and Multiple Control Targets

PubMed Central

Bagheri, Neda; Stelling, Jörg; Doyle, Francis J.

2008-01-01

Circadian entrainment is necessary for rhythmic physiological functions to be appropriately timed over the 24-hour day. Disruption of circadian rhythms has been associated with sleep and neuro-behavioral impairments as well as cancer. To date, light is widely accepted to be the most powerful circadian synchronizer, motivating its use as a key control input for phase resetting. Through sensitivity analysis, we identify additional control targets whose individual and simultaneous manipulation (via a model predictive control algorithm) out-perform the open-loop light-based phase recovery dynamics by nearly 3-fold. We further demonstrate the robustness of phase resetting by synchronizing short- and long-period mutant phenotypes to the 24-hour environment; the control algorithm is robust in the presence of model mismatch. These studies prove the efficacy and immediate application of model predictive control in experimental studies and medicine. In particular, maintaining proper circadian regulation may significantly decrease the chance of acquiring chronic illness. PMID:18795146

Catchments as non-linear filters: evaluating data-driven approaches for spatio-temporal predictions in ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellugi, D. G.; Tennant, C.; Larsen, L.

2016-12-01

Catchment and climate heterogeneity complicate prediction of runoff across time and space, and resulting parameter uncertainty can lead to large accumulated errors in hydrologic models, particularly in ungauged basins. Recently, data-driven modeling approaches have been shown to avoid the accumulated uncertainty associated with many physically-based models, providing an appealing alternative for hydrologic prediction. However, the effectiveness of different methods in hydrologically and geomorphically distinct catchments, and the robustness of these methods to changing climate and changing hydrologic processes remain to be tested. Here, we evaluate the use of machine learning techniques to predict daily runoff across time and space using only essential climatic forcing (e.g. precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration) time series as model input. Model training and testing was done using a high quality dataset of daily runoff and climate forcing data for 25+ years for 600+ minimally-disturbed catchments (drainage area range 5-25,000 km2, median size 336 km2) that cover a wide range of climatic and physical characteristics. Preliminary results using Support Vector Regression (SVR) suggest that in some catchments this nonlinear-based regression technique can accurately predict daily runoff, while the same approach fails in other catchments, indicating that the representation of climate inputs and/or catchment filter characteristics in the model structure need further refinement to increase performance. We bolster this analysis by using Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (a sparse symbolic regression technique) to uncover the governing equations that describe runoff processes in catchments where SVR performed well and for ones where it performed poorly, thereby enabling inference about governing processes. This provides a robust means of examining how catchment complexity influences runoff prediction skill, and represents a contribution towards the integration of data-driven inference and physically-based models.

Prediction model of potential hepatocarcinogenicity of rat hepatocarcinogens using a large-scale toxicogenomics database

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Uehara, Takeki, E-mail: takeki.uehara@shionogi.co.jp; Toxicogenomics Informatics Project, National Institute of Biomedical Innovation, 7-6-8 Asagi, Ibaraki, Osaka 567-0085; Minowa, Yohsuke

2011-09-15

The present study was performed to develop a robust gene-based prediction model for early assessment of potential hepatocarcinogenicity of chemicals in rats by using our toxicogenomics database, TG-GATEs (Genomics-Assisted Toxicity Evaluation System developed by the Toxicogenomics Project in Japan). The positive training set consisted of high- or middle-dose groups that received 6 different non-genotoxic hepatocarcinogens during a 28-day period. The negative training set consisted of high- or middle-dose groups of 54 non-carcinogens. Support vector machine combined with wrapper-type gene selection algorithms was used for modeling. Consequently, our best classifier yielded prediction accuracies for hepatocarcinogenicity of 99% sensitivity and 97% specificitymore » in the training data set, and false positive prediction was almost completely eliminated. Pathway analysis of feature genes revealed that the mitogen-activated protein kinase p38- and phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase-centered interactome and the v-myc myelocytomatosis viral oncogene homolog-centered interactome were the 2 most significant networks. The usefulness and robustness of our predictor were further confirmed in an independent validation data set obtained from the public database. Interestingly, similar positive predictions were obtained in several genotoxic hepatocarcinogens as well as non-genotoxic hepatocarcinogens. These results indicate that the expression profiles of our newly selected candidate biomarker genes might be common characteristics in the early stage of carcinogenesis for both genotoxic and non-genotoxic carcinogens in the rat liver. Our toxicogenomic model might be useful for the prospective screening of hepatocarcinogenicity of compounds and prioritization of compounds for carcinogenicity testing. - Highlights: >We developed a toxicogenomic model to predict hepatocarcinogenicity of chemicals. >The optimized model consisting of 9 probes had 99% sensitivity and 97% specificity. >This model enables us to detect genotoxic as well as non-genotoxic hepatocarcinogens.« less

A robust optimization model for distribution and evacuation in the disaster response phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fereiduni, Meysam; Shahanaghi, Kamran

2017-03-01

Natural disasters, such as earthquakes, affect thousands of people and can cause enormous financial loss. Therefore, an efficient response immediately following a natural disaster is vital to minimize the aforementioned negative effects. This research paper presents a network design model for humanitarian logistics which will assist in location and allocation decisions for multiple disaster periods. At first, a single-objective optimization model is presented that addresses the response phase of disaster management. This model will help the decision makers to make the most optimal choices in regard to location, allocation, and evacuation simultaneously. The proposed model also considers emergency tents as temporary medical centers. To cope with the uncertainty and dynamic nature of disasters, and their consequences, our multi-period robust model considers the values of critical input data in a set of various scenarios. Second, because of probable disruption in the distribution infrastructure (such as bridges), the Monte Carlo simulation is used for generating related random numbers and different scenarios; the p-robust approach is utilized to formulate the new network. The p-robust approach can predict possible damages along pathways and among relief bases. We render a case study of our robust optimization approach for Tehran's plausible earthquake in region 1. Sensitivity analysis' experiments are proposed to explore the effects of various problem parameters. These experiments will give managerial insights and can guide DMs under a variety of conditions. Then, the performances of the "robust optimization" approach and the "p-robust optimization" approach are evaluated. Intriguing results and practical insights are demonstrated by our analysis on this comparison.

Sensorless Modeling of Varying Pulse Width Modulator Resolutions in Three-Phase Induction Motors

PubMed Central

Marko, Matthew David; Shevach, Glenn

2017-01-01

A sensorless algorithm was developed to predict rotor speeds in an electric three-phase induction motor. This sensorless model requires a measurement of the stator currents and voltages, and the rotor speed is predicted accurately without any mechanical measurement of the rotor speed. A model of an electric vehicle undergoing acceleration was built, and the sensorless prediction of the simulation rotor speed was determined to be robust even in the presence of fluctuating motor parameters and significant sensor errors. Studies were conducted for varying pulse width modulator resolutions, and the sensorless model was accurate for all resolutions of sinusoidal voltage functions. PMID:28076418

Sensorless Modeling of Varying Pulse Width Modulator Resolutions in Three-Phase Induction Motors.

PubMed

Marko, Matthew David; Shevach, Glenn

2017-01-01

A sensorless algorithm was developed to predict rotor speeds in an electric three-phase induction motor. This sensorless model requires a measurement of the stator currents and voltages, and the rotor speed is predicted accurately without any mechanical measurement of the rotor speed. A model of an electric vehicle undergoing acceleration was built, and the sensorless prediction of the simulation rotor speed was determined to be robust even in the presence of fluctuating motor parameters and significant sensor errors. Studies were conducted for varying pulse width modulator resolutions, and the sensorless model was accurate for all resolutions of sinusoidal voltage functions.

Real-time prediction of respiratory motion based on a local dynamic model in an augmented space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, S.-M.; Jung, B.-H.; Ruan, D.

2011-03-01

Motion-adaptive radiotherapy aims to deliver ablative radiation dose to the tumor target with minimal normal tissue exposure, by accounting for real-time target movement. In practice, prediction is usually necessary to compensate for system latency induced by measurement, communication and control. This work focuses on predicting respiratory motion, which is most dominant for thoracic and abdominal tumors. We develop and investigate the use of a local dynamic model in an augmented space, motivated by the observation that respiratory movement exhibits a locally circular pattern in a plane augmented with a delayed axis. By including the angular velocity as part of the system state, the proposed dynamic model effectively captures the natural evolution of respiratory motion. The first-order extended Kalman filter is used to propagate and update the state estimate. The target location is predicted by evaluating the local dynamic model equations at the required prediction length. This method is complementary to existing work in that (1) the local circular motion model characterizes 'turning', overcoming the limitation of linear motion models; (2) it uses a natural state representation including the local angular velocity and updates the state estimate systematically, offering explicit physical interpretations; (3) it relies on a parametric model and is much less data-satiate than the typical adaptive semiparametric or nonparametric method. We tested the performance of the proposed method with ten RPM traces, using the normalized root mean squared difference between the predicted value and the retrospective observation as the error metric. Its performance was compared with predictors based on the linear model, the interacting multiple linear models and the kernel density estimator for various combinations of prediction lengths and observation rates. The local dynamic model based approach provides the best performance for short to medium prediction lengths under relatively low observation rate. Sensitivity analysis indicates its robustness toward the choice of parameters. Its simplicity, robustness and low computation cost makes the proposed local dynamic model an attractive tool for real-time prediction with system latencies below 0.4 s.

Real-time prediction of respiratory motion based on a local dynamic model in an augmented space.

PubMed

Hong, S-M; Jung, B-H; Ruan, D

2011-03-21

Motion-adaptive radiotherapy aims to deliver ablative radiation dose to the tumor target with minimal normal tissue exposure, by accounting for real-time target movement. In practice, prediction is usually necessary to compensate for system latency induced by measurement, communication and control. This work focuses on predicting respiratory motion, which is most dominant for thoracic and abdominal tumors. We develop and investigate the use of a local dynamic model in an augmented space, motivated by the observation that respiratory movement exhibits a locally circular pattern in a plane augmented with a delayed axis. By including the angular velocity as part of the system state, the proposed dynamic model effectively captures the natural evolution of respiratory motion. The first-order extended Kalman filter is used to propagate and update the state estimate. The target location is predicted by evaluating the local dynamic model equations at the required prediction length. This method is complementary to existing work in that (1) the local circular motion model characterizes 'turning', overcoming the limitation of linear motion models; (2) it uses a natural state representation including the local angular velocity and updates the state estimate systematically, offering explicit physical interpretations; (3) it relies on a parametric model and is much less data-satiate than the typical adaptive semiparametric or nonparametric method. We tested the performance of the proposed method with ten RPM traces, using the normalized root mean squared difference between the predicted value and the retrospective observation as the error metric. Its performance was compared with predictors based on the linear model, the interacting multiple linear models and the kernel density estimator for various combinations of prediction lengths and observation rates. The local dynamic model based approach provides the best performance for short to medium prediction lengths under relatively low observation rate. Sensitivity analysis indicates its robustness toward the choice of parameters. Its simplicity, robustness and low computation cost makes the proposed local dynamic model an attractive tool for real-time prediction with system latencies below 0.4 s.

Signaling mechanisms underlying the robustness and tunability of the plant immune network

PubMed Central

Kim, Yungil; Tsuda, Kenichi; Igarashi, Daisuke; Hillmer, Rachel A.; Sakakibara, Hitoshi; Myers, Chad L.; Katagiri, Fumiaki

2014-01-01

Summary How does robust and tunable behavior emerge in a complex biological network? We sought to understand this for the signaling network controlling pattern-triggered immunity (PTI) in Arabidopsis. A dynamic network model containing four major signaling sectors, the jasmonate, ethylene, PAD4, and salicylate sectors, which together explain up to 80% of the PTI level, was built using data for dynamic sector activities and PTI levels under exhaustive combinatorial sector perturbations. Our regularized multiple regression model had a high level of predictive power and captured known and unexpected signal flows in the network. The sole inhibitory sector in the model, the ethylene sector, was central to the network robustness via its inhibition of the jasmonate sector. The model's multiple input sites linked specific signal input patterns varying in strength and timing to different network response patterns, indicating a mechanism enabling tunability. PMID:24439900

Two challenges in embedded systems design: predictability and robustness.

PubMed

Henzinger, Thomas A

2008-10-28

I discuss two main challenges in embedded systems design: the challenge to build predictable systems, and that to build robust systems. I suggest how predictability can be formalized as a form of determinism, and robustness as a form of continuity.

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model for Long-Circulating Inorganic Nanoparticles.

PubMed

Liang, Xiaowen; Wang, Haolu; Grice, Jeffrey E; Li, Li; Liu, Xin; Xu, Zhi Ping; Roberts, Michael S

2016-02-10

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model was developed for accurately characterizing and predicting the in vivo fate of long-circulating inorganic nanoparticles (NPs). This model is built based on direct visualization of NP disposition details at the organ and cellular level. It was validated with multiple data sets, indicating robust inter-route and interspecies predictive capability. We suggest that the biodistribution of long-circulating inorganic NPs is determined by the uptake and release of NPs by phagocytic cells in target organs.

Characterization of performance-emission indices of a diesel engine using ANFIS operating in dual-fuel mode with LPG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Amitav; Roy, Sumit; Banerjee, Rahul

2018-03-01

This experimental work highlights the inherent capability of an adaptive-neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) based model to act as a robust system identification tool (SIT) in prognosticating the performance and emission parameters of an existing diesel engine running of diesel-LPG dual fuel mode. The developed model proved its adeptness by successfully harnessing the effects of the input parameters of load, injection duration and LPG energy share on output parameters of BSFCEQ, BTE, NOX, SOOT, CO and HC. Successive evaluation of the ANFIS model, revealed high levels of resemblance with the already forecasted ANN results for the same input parameters and it was evident that similar to ANN, ANFIS also has the innate ability to act as a robust SIT. The ANFIS predicted data harmonized the experimental data with high overall accuracy. The correlation coefficient (R) values are stretched in between 0.99207 to 0.999988. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) tallies were recorded in the range of 0.02-0.173% with the root mean square errors (RMSE) in acceptable margins. Hence the developed model is capable of emulating the actual engine parameters with commendable ranges of accuracy, which in turn would act as a robust prediction platform in the future domains of optimization.

Characterization of recent and minimally passaged Brazilian dengue viruses inducing robust infection in rhesus macaques.

PubMed

Borges, Maria Beatriz; Marchevsky, Renato Sergio; Mendes, Ygara S; Mendes, Luiz Gustavo; Duarte, Ana Claudia; Cruz, Michael; de Filippis, Ana Maria Bispo; Vasconcelos, Pedro Fernando C; Freire, Marcos; Homma, Akira; Mossman, Sally; Lepine, Edith; Vanloubbeeck, Yannick; Lorin, Clarisse; Malice, Marie-Pierre; Caride, Elena; Warter, Lucile

2018-01-01

The macaque is widely accepted as a suitable model for preclinical characterization of dengue vaccine candidates. However, the only vaccine for which both preclinical and clinical efficacy results were reported so far showed efficacy levels that were substantially different between macaques and humans. We hypothesized that this model's predictive capacity may be improved using recent and minimally passaged dengue virus isolates, and by assessing vaccine efficacy by characterizing not only the post-dengue virus challenge viremia/RNAemia but also the associated-cytokine profile. Ten recent and minimally passaged Brazilian clinical isolates from the four dengue virus serotypes were tested for their infectivity in rhesus macaques. For the strains showing robust replication capacity, the associated-changes in soluble mediator levels, and the elicited dengue virus-neutralizing antibody responses, were also characterized. Three isolates from dengue virus serotypes 1, 2 and 4 induced viremia of high magnitude and longer duration relative to previously reported viremia kinetics in this model, and robust dengue virus-neutralizing antibody responses. Consistent with observations in humans, increased MCP-1, IFN-γ and VEGF-A levels, and transiently decreased IL-8 levels were detected after infection with the selected isolates. These results may contribute to establishing a dengue macaque model showing a higher predictability for vaccine efficacy in humans.

Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, V.; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, C.

2017-12-01

Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992-2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, Kunwar P., E-mail: kpsingh_52@yahoo.com; Gupta, Shikha

Ensemble learning approach based decision treeboost (DTB) and decision tree forest (DTF) models are introduced in order to establish quantitative structure–toxicity relationship (QSTR) for the prediction of toxicity of 1450 diverse chemicals. Eight non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors were derived. Structural diversity of the chemicals was evaluated using Tanimoto similarity index. Stochastic gradient boosting and bagging algorithms supplemented DTB and DTF models were constructed for classification and function optimization problems using the toxicity end-point in T. pyriformis. Special attention was drawn to prediction ability and robustness of the models, investigated both in external and 10-fold cross validation processes. In complete data,more » optimal DTB and DTF models rendered accuracies of 98.90%, 98.83% in two-category and 98.14%, 98.14% in four-category toxicity classifications. Both the models further yielded classification accuracies of 100% in external toxicity data of T. pyriformis. The constructed regression models (DTB and DTF) using five descriptors yielded correlation coefficients (R{sup 2}) of 0.945, 0.944 between the measured and predicted toxicities with mean squared errors (MSEs) of 0.059, and 0.064 in complete T. pyriformis data. The T. pyriformis regression models (DTB and DTF) applied to the external toxicity data sets yielded R{sup 2} and MSE values of 0.637, 0.655; 0.534, 0.507 (marine bacteria) and 0.741, 0.691; 0.155, 0.173 (algae). The results suggest for wide applicability of the inter-species models in predicting toxicity of new chemicals for regulatory purposes. These approaches provide useful strategy and robust tools in the screening of ecotoxicological risk or environmental hazard potential of chemicals. - Graphical abstract: Importance of input variables in DTB and DTF classification models for (a) two-category, and (b) four-category toxicity intervals in T. pyriformis data. Generalization and predictive abilities of the constructed (c) DTB and (d) DTF regression models to predict the T. pyriformis toxicity of diverse chemicals. - Highlights: • Ensemble learning (EL) based models constructed for toxicity prediction of chemicals • Predictive models used a few simple non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors. • EL-based DTB/DTF models successfully discriminated toxic and non-toxic chemicals. • DTB/DTF regression models precisely predicted toxicity of chemicals in multi-species. • Proposed EL based models can be used as tool to predict toxicity of new chemicals.« less

Hydrogen and Oxygen Isotope Ratios in Body Water and Hair: Modeling Isotope Dynamics in Nonhuman Primates

PubMed Central

O’Grady, Shannon P.; Valenzuela, Luciano O.; Remien, Christopher H.; Enright, Lindsey E.; Jorgensen, Matthew J.; Kaplan, Jay R.; Wagner, Janice D.; Cerling, Thure E.; Ehleringer, James R.

2012-01-01

The stable isotopic composition of drinking water, diet, and atmospheric oxygen influence the isotopic composition of body water (2H/1H, 18O/16O expressed as δ2H and δ18O). In turn, body water influences the isotopic composition of organic matter in tissues, such as hair and teeth, which are often used to reconstruct historical dietary and movement patterns of animals and humans. Here, we used a nonhuman primate system (Macaca fascicularis) to test the robustness of two different mechanistic stable isotope models: a model to predict the δ2H and δ18O values of body water and a second model to predict the δ2H and δ18O values of hair. In contrast to previous human-based studies, use of nonhuman primates fed controlled diets allowed us to further constrain model parameter values and evaluate model predictions. Both models reliably predicted the δ2H and δ18O values of body water and of hair. Moreover, the isotope data allowed us to better quantify values for two critical variables in the models: the δ2H and δ18O values of gut water and the 18O isotope fractionation associated with a carbonyl oxygen-water interaction in the gut (αow). Our modeling efforts indicated that better predictions for body water and hair isotope values were achieved by making the isotopic composition of gut water approached that of body water. Additionally, the value of αow was 1.0164, in close agreement with the only other previously measured observation (microbial spore cell walls), suggesting robustness of this fractionation factor across different biological systems. PMID:22553163

Hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios in body water and hair: modeling isotope dynamics in nonhuman primates.

PubMed

O'Grady, Shannon P; Valenzuela, Luciano O; Remien, Christopher H; Enright, Lindsey E; Jorgensen, Matthew J; Kaplan, Jay R; Wagner, Janice D; Cerling, Thure E; Ehleringer, James R

2012-07-01

The stable isotopic composition of drinking water, diet, and atmospheric oxygen influence the isotopic composition of body water ((2)H/(1)H, (18)O/(16)O expressed as δ(2) H and δ(18)O). In turn, body water influences the isotopic composition of organic matter in tissues, such as hair and teeth, which are often used to reconstruct historical dietary and movement patterns of animals and humans. Here, we used a nonhuman primate system (Macaca fascicularis) to test the robustness of two different mechanistic stable isotope models: a model to predict the δ(2)H and δ(18)O values of body water and a second model to predict the δ(2)H and δ(18)O values of hair. In contrast to previous human-based studies, use of nonhuman primates fed controlled diets allowed us to further constrain model parameter values and evaluate model predictions. Both models reliably predicted the δ(2)H and δ(18)O values of body water and of hair. Moreover, the isotope data allowed us to better quantify values for two critical variables in the models: the δ(2)H and δ(18)O values of gut water and the (18)O isotope fractionation associated with a carbonyl oxygen-water interaction in the gut (α(ow)). Our modeling efforts indicated that better predictions for body water and hair isotope values were achieved by making the isotopic composition of gut water approached that of body water. Additionally, the value of α(ow) was 1.0164, in close agreement with the only other previously measured observation (microbial spore cell walls), suggesting robustness of this fractionation factor across different biological systems. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Achieving Robustness to Uncertainty for Financial Decision-making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnum, George M.; Van Buren, Kendra L.; Hemez, Francois M.

2014-01-10

This report investigates the concept of robustness analysis to support financial decision-making. Financial models, that forecast future stock returns or market conditions, depend on assumptions that might be unwarranted and variables that might exhibit large fluctuations from their last-known values. The analysis of robustness explores these sources of uncertainty, and recommends model settings such that the forecasts used for decision-making are as insensitive as possible to the uncertainty. A proof-of-concept is presented with the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The robustness of model predictions is assessed using info-gap decision theory. Info-gaps are models of uncertainty that express the “distance,” or gapmore » of information, between what is known and what needs to be known in order to support the decision. The analysis yields a description of worst-case stock returns as a function of increasing gaps in our knowledge. The analyst can then decide on the best course of action by trading-off worst-case performance with “risk”, which is how much uncertainty they think needs to be accommodated in the future. The report also discusses the Graphical User Interface, developed using the MATLAB® programming environment, such that the user can control the analysis through an easy-to-navigate interface. Three directions of future work are identified to enhance the present software. First, the code should be re-written using the Python scientific programming software. This change will achieve greater cross-platform compatibility, better portability, allow for a more professional appearance, and render it independent from a commercial license, which MATLAB® requires. Second, a capability should be developed to allow users to quickly implement and analyze their own models. This will facilitate application of the software to the evaluation of proprietary financial models. The third enhancement proposed is to add the ability to evaluate multiple models simultaneously. When two models reflect past data with similar accuracy, the more robust of the two is preferable for decision-making because its predictions are, by definition, less sensitive to the uncertainty.« less

REGRESSION MODELS OF RESIDENTIAL EXPOSURE TO CHLORPYRIFOS AND DIAZINON

EPA Science Inventory

This study examines the ability of regression models to predict residential exposures to chlorpyrifos and diazinon, based on the information from the NHEXAS-AZ database. The robust method was used to generate "fill-in" values for samples that are below the detection l...

On-Line Mu Method for Robust Flutter Prediction in Expanding a Safe Flight Envelope for an Aircraft Model Under Flight Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lind, Richard C. (Inventor); Brenner, Martin J.

2001-01-01

A structured singular value (mu) analysis method of computing flutter margins has robust stability of a linear aeroelastic model with uncertainty operators (Delta). Flight data is used to update the uncertainty operators to accurately account for errors in the computed model and the observed range of aircraft dynamics of the aircraft under test caused by time-varying aircraft parameters, nonlinearities, and flight anomalies, such as test nonrepeatability. This mu-based approach computes predict flutter margins that are worst case with respect to the modeling uncertainty for use in determining when the aircraft is approaching a flutter condition and defining an expanded safe flight envelope for the aircraft that is accepted with more confidence than traditional methods that do not update the analysis algorithm with flight data by introducing mu as a flutter margin parameter that presents several advantages over tracking damping trends as a measure of a tendency to instability from available flight data.

Understanding Fast and Robust Thermo-osmotic Flows through Carbon Nanotube Membranes: Thermodynamics Meets Hydrodynamics.

PubMed

Fu, Li; Merabia, Samy; Joly, Laurent

2018-04-19

Following our recent theoretical prediction of the giant thermo-osmotic response of the water-graphene interface, we explore the practical implementation of waste heat harvesting with carbon-based membranes, focusing on model membranes of carbon nanotubes (CNT). To that aim, we combine molecular dynamics simulations and an analytical model considering the details of hydrodynamics in the membrane and at the tube entrances. The analytical model and the simulation results match quantitatively, highlighting the need to take into account both thermodynamics and hydrodynamics to predict thermo-osmotic flows through membranes. We show that, despite viscous entrance effects and a thermal short-circuit mechanism, CNT membranes can generate very fast thermo-osmotic flows, which can overcome the osmotic pressure of seawater. We then show that in small tubes confinement has a complex effect on the flow and can even reverse the flow direction. Beyond CNT membranes, our analytical model can guide the search for other membranes to generate fast and robust thermo-osmotic flows.

Load Measurement in Structural Members Using Guided Acoustic Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Feng; Wilcox, Paul D.

2006-03-01

A non-destructive technique to measure load in structures such as rails and bridge cables by using guided acoustic waves is investigated both theoretically and experimentally. Robust finite element models for predicting the effect of load on guided wave propagation are developed and example results are presented for rods. Reasonably good agreement of experimental results with modelling prediction is obtained. The measurement technique has been developed to perform tests on larger specimens.

Robust mechanobiological behavior emerges in heterogeneous myosin systems.

PubMed

Egan, Paul F; Moore, Jeffrey R; Ehrlicher, Allen J; Weitz, David A; Schunn, Christian; Cagan, Jonathan; LeDuc, Philip

2017-09-26

Biological complexity presents challenges for understanding natural phenomenon and engineering new technologies, particularly in systems with molecular heterogeneity. Such complexity is present in myosin motor protein systems, and computational modeling is essential for determining how collective myosin interactions produce emergent system behavior. We develop a computational approach for altering myosin isoform parameters and their collective organization, and support predictions with in vitro experiments of motility assays with α-actinins as molecular force sensors. The computational approach models variations in single myosin molecular structure, system organization, and force stimuli to predict system behavior for filament velocity, energy consumption, and robustness. Robustness is the range of forces where a filament is expected to have continuous velocity and depends on used myosin system energy. Myosin systems are shown to have highly nonlinear behavior across force conditions that may be exploited at a systems level by combining slow and fast myosin isoforms heterogeneously. Results suggest some heterogeneous systems have lower energy use near stall conditions and greater energy consumption when unloaded, therefore promoting robustness. These heterogeneous system capabilities are unique in comparison with homogenous systems and potentially advantageous for high performance bionanotechnologies. Findings open doors at the intersections of mechanics and biology, particularly for understanding and treating myosin-related diseases and developing approaches for motor molecule-based technologies.

Robust mechanobiological behavior emerges in heterogeneous myosin systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egan, Paul F.; Moore, Jeffrey R.; Ehrlicher, Allen J.; Weitz, David A.; Schunn, Christian; Cagan, Jonathan; LeDuc, Philip

2017-09-01

Biological complexity presents challenges for understanding natural phenomenon and engineering new technologies, particularly in systems with molecular heterogeneity. Such complexity is present in myosin motor protein systems, and computational modeling is essential for determining how collective myosin interactions produce emergent system behavior. We develop a computational approach for altering myosin isoform parameters and their collective organization, and support predictions with in vitro experiments of motility assays with α-actinins as molecular force sensors. The computational approach models variations in single myosin molecular structure, system organization, and force stimuli to predict system behavior for filament velocity, energy consumption, and robustness. Robustness is the range of forces where a filament is expected to have continuous velocity and depends on used myosin system energy. Myosin systems are shown to have highly nonlinear behavior across force conditions that may be exploited at a systems level by combining slow and fast myosin isoforms heterogeneously. Results suggest some heterogeneous systems have lower energy use near stall conditions and greater energy consumption when unloaded, therefore promoting robustness. These heterogeneous system capabilities are unique in comparison with homogenous systems and potentially advantageous for high performance bionanotechnologies. Findings open doors at the intersections of mechanics and biology, particularly for understanding and treating myosin-related diseases and developing approaches for motor molecule-based technologies.

Assessing the Liquidity of Firms: Robust Neural Network Regression as an Alternative to the Current Ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Andrés, Javier; Landajo, Manuel; Lorca, Pedro; Labra, Jose; Ordóñez, Patricia

Artificial neural networks have proven to be useful tools for solving financial analysis problems such as financial distress prediction and audit risk assessment. In this paper we focus on the performance of robust (least absolute deviation-based) neural networks on measuring liquidity of firms. The problem of learning the bivariate relationship between the components (namely, current liabilities and current assets) of the so-called current ratio is analyzed, and the predictive performance of several modelling paradigms (namely, linear and log-linear regressions, classical ratios and neural networks) is compared. An empirical analysis is conducted on a representative data base from the Spanish economy. Results indicate that classical ratio models are largely inadequate as a realistic description of the studied relationship, especially when used for predictive purposes. In a number of cases, especially when the analyzed firms are microenterprises, the linear specification is improved by considering the flexible non-linear structures provided by neural networks.

Metabolic robustness in young roots underpins a predictive model of maize hybrid performance in the field.

PubMed

de Abreu E Lima, Francisco; Westhues, Matthias; Cuadros-Inostroza, Álvaro; Willmitzer, Lothar; Melchinger, Albrecht E; Nikoloski, Zoran

2017-04-01

Heterosis has been extensively exploited for yield gain in maize (Zea mays L.). Here we conducted a comparative metabolomics-based analysis of young roots from in vitro germinating seedlings and from leaves of field-grown plants in a panel of inbred lines from the Dent and Flint heterotic patterns as well as selected F 1 hybrids. We found that metabolite levels in hybrids were more robust than in inbred lines. Using state-of-the-art modeling techniques, the most robust metabolites from roots and leaves explained up to 37 and 44% of the variance in the biomass from plants grown in two distinct field trials. In addition, a correlation-based analysis highlighted the trade-off between defense-related metabolites and hybrid performance. Therefore, our findings demonstrated the potential of metabolic profiles from young maize roots grown under tightly controlled conditions to predict hybrid performance in multiple field trials, thus bridging the greenhouse-field gap. © 2017 The Authors The Plant Journal © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Unscented predictive variable structure filter for satellite attitude estimation with model errors when using low precision sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Lu; Li, Hengnian

2016-10-01

For the satellite attitude estimation problem, the serious model errors always exist and hider the estimation performance of the Attitude Determination and Control System (ACDS), especially for a small satellite with low precision sensors. To deal with this problem, a new algorithm for the attitude estimation, referred to as the unscented predictive variable structure filter (UPVSF) is presented. This strategy is proposed based on the variable structure control concept and unscented transform (UT) sampling method. It can be implemented in real time with an ability to estimate the model errors on-line, in order to improve the state estimation precision. In addition, the model errors in this filter are not restricted only to the Gaussian noises; therefore, it has the advantages to deal with the various kinds of model errors or noises. It is anticipated that the UT sampling strategy can further enhance the robustness and accuracy of the novel UPVSF. Numerical simulations show that the proposed UPVSF is more effective and robustness in dealing with the model errors and low precision sensors compared with the traditional unscented Kalman filter (UKF).

Evaluation of different machine learning models for predicting and mapping the susceptibility of gully erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmati, Omid; Tahmasebipour, Nasser; Haghizadeh, Ali; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar

2017-12-01

Gully erosion constitutes a serious problem for land degradation in a wide range of environments. The main objective of this research was to compare the performance of seven state-of-the-art machine learning models (SVM with four kernel types, BP-ANN, RF, and BRT) to model the occurrence of gully erosion in the Kashkan-Poldokhtar Watershed, Iran. In the first step, a gully inventory map consisting of 65 gully polygons was prepared through field surveys. Three different sample data sets (S1, S2, and S3), including both positive and negative cells (70% for training and 30% for validation), were randomly prepared to evaluate the robustness of the models. To model the gully erosion susceptibility, 12 geo-environmental factors were selected as predictors. Finally, the goodness-of-fit and prediction skill of the models were evaluated by different criteria, including efficiency percent, kappa coefficient, and the area under the ROC curves (AUC). In terms of accuracy, the RF, RBF-SVM, BRT, and P-SVM models performed excellently both in the degree of fitting and in predictive performance (AUC values well above 0.9), which resulted in accurate predictions. Therefore, these models can be used in other gully erosion studies, as they are capable of rapidly producing accurate and robust gully erosion susceptibility maps (GESMs) for decision-making and soil and water management practices. Furthermore, it was found that performance of RF and RBF-SVM for modelling gully erosion occurrence is quite stable when the learning and validation samples are changed.

Robust geostatistical analysis of spatial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papritz, A.; Künsch, H. R.; Schwierz, C.; Stahel, W. A.

2012-04-01

Most of the geostatistical software tools rely on non-robust algorithms. This is unfortunate, because outlying observations are rather the rule than the exception, in particular in environmental data sets. Outlying observations may results from errors (e.g. in data transcription) or from local perturbations in the processes that are responsible for a given pattern of spatial variation. As an example, the spatial distribution of some trace metal in the soils of a region may be distorted by emissions of local anthropogenic sources. Outliers affect the modelling of the large-scale spatial variation, the so-called external drift or trend, the estimation of the spatial dependence of the residual variation and the predictions by kriging. Identifying outliers manually is cumbersome and requires expertise because one needs parameter estimates to decide which observation is a potential outlier. Moreover, inference after the rejection of some observations is problematic. A better approach is to use robust algorithms that prevent automatically that outlying observations have undue influence. Former studies on robust geostatistics focused on robust estimation of the sample variogram and ordinary kriging without external drift. Furthermore, Richardson and Welsh (1995) [2] proposed a robustified version of (restricted) maximum likelihood ([RE]ML) estimation for the variance components of a linear mixed model, which was later used by Marchant and Lark (2007) [1] for robust REML estimation of the variogram. We propose here a novel method for robust REML estimation of the variogram of a Gaussian random field that is possibly contaminated by independent errors from a long-tailed distribution. It is based on robustification of estimating equations for the Gaussian REML estimation. Besides robust estimates of the parameters of the external drift and of the variogram, the method also provides standard errors for the estimated parameters, robustified kriging predictions at both sampled and unsampled locations and kriging variances. The method has been implemented in an R package. Apart from presenting our modelling framework, we shall present selected simulation results by which we explored the properties of the new method. This will be complemented by an analysis of the Tarrawarra soil moisture data set [3].

Construction of ground-state preserving sparse lattice models for predictive materials simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wenxuan; Urban, Alexander; Rong, Ziqin; Ding, Zhiwei; Luo, Chuan; Ceder, Gerbrand

2017-08-01

First-principles based cluster expansion models are the dominant approach in ab initio thermodynamics of crystalline mixtures enabling the prediction of phase diagrams and novel ground states. However, despite recent advances, the construction of accurate models still requires a careful and time-consuming manual parameter tuning process for ground-state preservation, since this property is not guaranteed by default. In this paper, we present a systematic and mathematically sound method to obtain cluster expansion models that are guaranteed to preserve the ground states of their reference data. The method builds on the recently introduced compressive sensing paradigm for cluster expansion and employs quadratic programming to impose constraints on the model parameters. The robustness of our methodology is illustrated for two lithium transition metal oxides with relevance for Li-ion battery cathodes, i.e., Li2xFe2(1-x)O2 and Li2xTi2(1-x)O2, for which the construction of cluster expansion models with compressive sensing alone has proven to be challenging. We demonstrate that our method not only guarantees ground-state preservation on the set of reference structures used for the model construction, but also show that out-of-sample ground-state preservation up to relatively large supercell size is achievable through a rapidly converging iterative refinement. This method provides a general tool for building robust, compressed and constrained physical models with predictive power.

An integrated approach to infer dynamic protein-gene interactions - A case study of the human P53 protein.

PubMed

Wang, Junbai; Wu, Qianqian; Hu, Xiaohua Tony; Tian, Tianhai

2016-11-01

Investigating the dynamics of genetic regulatory networks through high throughput experimental data, such as microarray gene expression profiles, is a very important but challenging task. One of the major hindrances in building detailed mathematical models for genetic regulation is the large number of unknown model parameters. To tackle this challenge, a new integrated method is proposed by combining a top-down approach and a bottom-up approach. First, the top-down approach uses probabilistic graphical models to predict the network structure of DNA repair pathway that is regulated by the p53 protein. Two networks are predicted, namely a network of eight genes with eight inferred interactions and an extended network of 21 genes with 17 interactions. Then, the bottom-up approach using differential equation models is developed to study the detailed genetic regulations based on either a fully connected regulatory network or a gene network obtained by the top-down approach. Model simulation error, parameter identifiability and robustness property are used as criteria to select the optimal network. Simulation results together with permutation tests of input gene network structures indicate that the prediction accuracy and robustness property of the two predicted networks using the top-down approach are better than those of the corresponding fully connected networks. In particular, the proposed approach reduces computational cost significantly for inferring model parameters. Overall, the new integrated method is a promising approach for investigating the dynamics of genetic regulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) modeling approach for predicting distributions of fleas implicated as vectors of plague, Yersinia pestis, in California.

PubMed

Adjemian, Jennifer C Z; Girvetz, Evan H; Beckett, Laurel; Foley, Janet E

2006-01-01

More than 20 species of fleas in California are implicated as potential vectors of Yersinia pestis. Extremely limited spatial data exist for plague vectors-a key component to understanding where the greatest risks for human, domestic animal, and wildlife health exist. This study increases the spatial data available for 13 potential plague vectors by using the ecological niche modeling system Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) to predict their respective distributions. Because the available sample sizes in our data set varied greatly from one species to another, we also performed an analysis of the robustness of GARP by using the data available for flea Oropsylla montana (Baker) to quantify the effects that sample size and the chosen explanatory variables have on the final species distribution map. GARP effectively modeled the distributions of 13 vector species. Furthermore, our analyses show that all of these modeled ranges are robust, with a sample size of six fleas or greater not significantly impacting the percentage of the in-state area where the flea was predicted to be found, or the testing accuracy of the model. The results of this study will help guide the sampling efforts of future studies focusing on plague vectors.

A prospective earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eberhard, David A. J.; Zechar, J. Douglas; Wiemer, Stefan

2012-09-01

Since the beginning of 2009, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has been conducting an earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific. This experiment is an extension of the Kagan-Jackson experiments begun 15 years earlier and is a prototype for future global earthquake predictability experiments. At the beginning of each year, seismicity models make a spatially gridded forecast of the number of Mw≥ 5.8 earthquakes expected in the next year. For the three participating statistical models, we analyse the first two years of this experiment. We use likelihood-based metrics to evaluate the consistency of the forecasts with the observed target earthquakes and we apply measures based on Student's t-test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test to compare the forecasts. Overall, a simple smoothed seismicity model (TripleS) performs the best, but there are some exceptions that indicate continued experiments are vital to fully understand the stability of these models, the robustness of model selection and, more generally, earthquake predictability in this region. We also estimate uncertainties in our results that are caused by uncertainties in earthquake location and seismic moment. Our uncertainty estimates are relatively small and suggest that the evaluation metrics are relatively robust. Finally, we consider the implications of our results for a global earthquake forecast experiment.

Adaptive vehicle motion estimation and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Liang; Thorpe, Chuck E.

1999-01-01

Accurate motion estimation and reliable maneuver prediction enable an automated car to react quickly and correctly to the rapid maneuvers of the other vehicles, and so allow safe and efficient navigation. In this paper, we present a car tracking system which provides motion estimation, maneuver prediction and detection of the tracked car. The three strategies employed - adaptive motion modeling, adaptive data sampling, and adaptive model switching probabilities - result in an adaptive interacting multiple model algorithm (AIMM). The experimental results on simulated and real data demonstrate that our tracking system is reliable, flexible, and robust. The adaptive tracking makes the system intelligent and useful in various autonomous driving tasks.

Aeroservoelastic Model Validation and Test Data Analysis of the F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Martin J.; Prazenica, Richard J.

2003-01-01

Model validation and flight test data analysis require careful consideration of the effects of uncertainty, noise, and nonlinearity. Uncertainty prevails in the data analysis techniques and results in a composite model uncertainty from unmodeled dynamics, assumptions and mechanics of the estimation procedures, noise, and nonlinearity. A fundamental requirement for reliable and robust model development is an attempt to account for each of these sources of error, in particular, for model validation, robust stability prediction, and flight control system development. This paper is concerned with data processing procedures for uncertainty reduction in model validation for stability estimation and nonlinear identification. F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing (AAW) aircraft data is used to demonstrate signal representation effects on uncertain model development, stability estimation, and nonlinear identification. Data is decomposed using adaptive orthonormal best-basis and wavelet-basis signal decompositions for signal denoising into linear and nonlinear identification algorithms. Nonlinear identification from a wavelet-based Volterra kernel procedure is used to extract nonlinear dynamics from aeroelastic responses, and to assist model development and uncertainty reduction for model validation and stability prediction by removing a class of nonlinearity from the uncertainty.

Using ToxCast in vitro Assays in the Hierarchical Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) Modeling for Predicting in vivo Toxicity of Chemicals

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of chemical toxicology research is utilizing short term bioassays and/or robust computational methods to predict in vivo toxicity endpoints for chemicals. The ToxCast program established at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is addressing this goal by using ca....

Parameterization and prediction of nanoparticle transport in porous media: A reanalysis using artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babakhani, Peyman; Bridge, Jonathan; Doong, Ruey-an; Phenrat, Tanapon

2017-06-01

The continuing rapid expansion of industrial and consumer processes based on nanoparticles (NP) necessitates a robust model for delineating their fate and transport in groundwater. An ability to reliably specify the full parameter set for prediction of NP transport using continuum models is crucial. In this paper we report the reanalysis of a data set of 493 published column experiment outcomes together with their continuum modeling results. Experimental properties were parameterized into 20 factors which are commonly available. They were then used to predict five key continuum model parameters as well as the effluent concentration via artificial neural network (ANN)-based correlations. The Partial Derivatives (PaD) technique and Monte Carlo method were used for the analysis of sensitivities and model-produced uncertainties, respectively. The outcomes shed light on several controversial relationships between the parameters, e.g., it was revealed that the trend of Katt with average pore water velocity was positive. The resulting correlations, despite being developed based on a "black-box" technique (ANN), were able to explain the effects of theoretical parameters such as critical deposition concentration (CDC), even though these parameters were not explicitly considered in the model. Porous media heterogeneity was considered as a parameter for the first time and showed sensitivities higher than those of dispersivity. The model performance was validated well against subsets of the experimental data and was compared with current models. The robustness of the correlation matrices was not completely satisfactory, since they failed to predict the experimental breakthrough curves (BTCs) at extreme values of ionic strengths.

Comparisons of patch-use models for wintering American tree sparrows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tome, M.W.

1990-01-01

Optimal foraging theory has stimulated numerous theoretical and empirical studies of foraging behavior for >20 years. These models provide a valuable tool for studying the foraging behavior of an organism. As with any other tool, the models are most effective when properly used. For example, to obtain a robust test of a foraging model, Stephens and Krebs (1986) recommend experimental designs in which four questions are answered in the affirmative. First, do the foragers play the same "game" as the model? Sec- ond, are the assumptions of the model met? Third, does the test rule out alternative possibilities? Finally, are the appropriate variables measured? Negative an- swers to any of these questions could invalidate the model and lead to confusion over the usefulness of foraging theory in conducting ecological studies. Gaines (1989) attempted to determine whether American Tree Sparrows (Spizella arborea) foraged by a time (Krebs 1973) or number expectation rule (Gibb 1962), or in a manner consistent with the predictions of Charnov's (1976) marginal value theorem (MVT). Gaines (1989: 118) noted appropriately that field tests of foraging models frequently involve uncontrollable circumstances; thus, it is often difficult to meet the assumptions of the models. Gaines also states (1989: 118) that "violations of the assumptions are also in- formative but do not constitute robust tests of predicted hypotheses," and that "the problem can be avoided by experimental analyses which concurrently test mutually exclusive hypotheses so that alter- native predictions will be eliminated if falsified." There is a problem with this approach because, when major assumptions of models are not satisfied, it is not justifiable to compare a predator's foraging behavior with the model's predictions. I submit that failing to follow the advice offered by Stephens and Krebs (1986) can invalidate tests of foraging models.

Robustness for slope stability modelling under deep uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2015-04-01

Landslides can have large negative societal and economic impacts, such as loss of life and damage to infrastructure. However, the ability of slope stability assessment to guide management is limited by high levels of uncertainty in model predictions. Many of these uncertainties cannot be easily quantified, such as those linked to climate change and other future socio-economic conditions, restricting the usefulness of traditional decision analysis tools. Deep uncertainty can be managed more effectively by developing robust, but not necessarily optimal, policies that are expected to perform adequately under a wide range of future conditions. Robust strategies are particularly valuable when the consequences of taking a wrong decision are high as is often the case of when managing natural hazard risks such as landslides. In our work a physically based numerical model of hydrologically induced slope instability (the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model - CHASM) is applied together with robust decision making to evaluate the most important uncertainties (storm events, groundwater conditions, surface cover, slope geometry, material strata and geotechnical properties) affecting slope stability. Specifically, impacts of climate change on long-term slope stability are incorporated, accounting for the deep uncertainty in future climate projections. Our findings highlight the potential of robust decision making to aid decision support for landslide hazard reduction and risk management under conditions of deep uncertainty.

Predicting Changes in Macrophyte Community Structure from Functional Traits in a Freshwater Lake: A Test of Maximum Entropy Model

PubMed Central

Fu, Hui; Zhong, Jiayou; Yuan, Guixiang; Guo, Chunjing; Lou, Qian; Zhang, Wei; Xu, Jun; Ni, Leyi; Xie, Ping; Cao, Te

2015-01-01

Trait-based approaches have been widely applied to investigate how community dynamics respond to environmental gradients. In this study, we applied a series of maximum entropy (maxent) models incorporating functional traits to unravel the processes governing macrophyte community structure along water depth gradient in a freshwater lake. We sampled 42 plots and 1513 individual plants, and measured 16 functional traits and abundance of 17 macrophyte species. Study results showed that maxent model can be highly robust (99.8%) in predicting the species relative abundance of macrophytes with observed community-weighted mean (CWM) traits as the constraints, while relative low (about 30%) with CWM traits fitted from water depth gradient as the constraints. The measured traits showed notably distinct importance in predicting species abundances, with lowest for perennial growth form and highest for leaf dry mass content. For tuber and leaf nitrogen content, there were significant shifts in their effects on species relative abundance from positive in shallow water to negative in deep water. This result suggests that macrophyte species with tuber organ and greater leaf nitrogen content would become more abundant in shallow water, but would become less abundant in deep water. Our study highlights how functional traits distributed across gradients provide a robust path towards predictive community ecology. PMID:26167856

Predicting Retention Times of Naturally Occurring Phenolic Compounds in Reversed-Phase Liquid Chromatography: A Quantitative Structure-Retention Relationship (QSRR) Approach

PubMed Central

Akbar, Jamshed; Iqbal, Shahid; Batool, Fozia; Karim, Abdul; Chan, Kim Wei

2012-01-01

Quantitative structure-retention relationships (QSRRs) have successfully been developed for naturally occurring phenolic compounds in a reversed-phase liquid chromatographic (RPLC) system. A total of 1519 descriptors were calculated from the optimized structures of the molecules using MOPAC2009 and DRAGON softwares. The data set of 39 molecules was divided into training and external validation sets. For feature selection and mapping we used step-wise multiple linear regression (SMLR), unsupervised forward selection followed by step-wise multiple linear regression (UFS-SMLR) and artificial neural networks (ANN). Stable and robust models with significant predictive abilities in terms of validation statistics were obtained with negation of any chance correlation. ANN models were found better than remaining two approaches. HNar, IDM, Mp, GATS2v, DISP and 3D-MoRSE (signals 22, 28 and 32) descriptors based on van der Waals volume, electronegativity, mass and polarizability, at atomic level, were found to have significant effects on the retention times. The possible implications of these descriptors in RPLC have been discussed. All the models are proven to be quite able to predict the retention times of phenolic compounds and have shown remarkable validation, robustness, stability and predictive performance. PMID:23203132

A polynomial chaos ensemble hydrologic prediction system for efficient parameter inference and robust uncertainty assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.; Huang, W.

2015-11-01

This paper presents a polynomial chaos ensemble hydrologic prediction system (PCEHPS) for an efficient and robust uncertainty assessment of model parameters and predictions, in which possibilistic reasoning is infused into probabilistic parameter inference with simultaneous consideration of randomness and fuzziness. The PCEHPS is developed through a two-stage factorial polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) framework, which consists of an ensemble of PCEs to approximate the behavior of the hydrologic model, significantly speeding up the exhaustive sampling of the parameter space. Multiple hypothesis testing is then conducted to construct an ensemble of reduced-dimensionality PCEs with only the most influential terms, which is meaningful for achieving uncertainty reduction and further acceleration of parameter inference. The PCEHPS is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed in China to demonstrate its validity and applicability. A detailed comparison between the HYMOD hydrologic model, the ensemble of PCEs, and the ensemble of reduced PCEs is performed in terms of accuracy and efficiency. Results reveal temporal and spatial variations in parameter sensitivities due to the dynamic behavior of hydrologic systems, and the effects (magnitude and direction) of parametric interactions depending on different hydrological metrics. The case study demonstrates that the PCEHPS is capable not only of capturing both expert knowledge and probabilistic information in the calibration process, but also of implementing an acceleration of more than 10 times faster than the hydrologic model without compromising the predictive accuracy.

Generalized Predictive and Neural Generalized Predictive Control of Aerospace Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelkar, Atul G.

2000-01-01

The research work presented in this thesis addresses the problem of robust control of uncertain linear and nonlinear systems using Neural network-based Generalized Predictive Control (NGPC) methodology. A brief overview of predictive control and its comparison with Linear Quadratic (LQ) control is given to emphasize advantages and drawbacks of predictive control methods. It is shown that the Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) methodology overcomes the drawbacks associated with traditional LQ control as well as conventional predictive control methods. It is shown that in spite of the model-based nature of GPC it has good robustness properties being special case of receding horizon control. The conditions for choosing tuning parameters for GPC to ensure closed-loop stability are derived. A neural network-based GPC architecture is proposed for the control of linear and nonlinear uncertain systems. A methodology to account for parametric uncertainty in the system is proposed using on-line training capability of multi-layer neural network. Several simulation examples and results from real-time experiments are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Affordable non-traditional source data mining for context assessment to improve distributed fusion system robustness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, Christopher; Haith, Gary; Steinberg, Alan; Morefield, Charles; Morefield, Michael

2013-05-01

This paper describes methods to affordably improve the robustness of distributed fusion systems by opportunistically leveraging non-traditional data sources. Adaptive methods help find relevant data, create models, and characterize the model quality. These methods also can measure the conformity of this non-traditional data with fusion system products including situation modeling and mission impact prediction. Non-traditional data can improve the quantity, quality, availability, timeliness, and diversity of the baseline fusion system sources and therefore can improve prediction and estimation accuracy and robustness at all levels of fusion. Techniques are described that automatically learn to characterize and search non-traditional contextual data to enable operators integrate the data with the high-level fusion systems and ontologies. These techniques apply the extension of the Data Fusion & Resource Management Dual Node Network (DNN) technical architecture at Level 4. The DNN architecture supports effectively assessment and management of the expanded portfolio of data sources, entities of interest, models, and algorithms including data pattern discovery and context conformity. Affordable model-driven and data-driven data mining methods to discover unknown models from non-traditional and `big data' sources are used to automatically learn entity behaviors and correlations with fusion products, [14 and 15]. This paper describes our context assessment software development, and the demonstration of context assessment of non-traditional data to compare to an intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance fusion product based upon an IED POIs workflow.

Where and why do models fail? Perspectives from Oregon Hydrologic Landscape classification

EPA Science Inventory

A complete understanding of why rainfall-runoff models provide good streamflow predictions at catchments in some regions, but fail to do so in other regions, has still not been achieved. Here, we argue that a hydrologic classification system is a robust conceptual tool that is w...

DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF NOVEL DOSE-RESPONSE MODELS FOR USE IN MICROBIAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

This document contains a description of dose-response modeling methods designed to provide a robust approach under uncertainty for predicting human population risk from exposure to pathogens in drinking water.

The purpose of this document is to describe a body of literatu...

QSAR study of curcumine derivatives as HIV-1 integrase inhibitors.

PubMed

Gupta, Pawan; Sharma, Anju; Garg, Prabha; Roy, Nilanjan

2013-03-01

A QSAR study was performed on curcumine derivatives as HIV-1 integrase inhibitors using multiple linear regression. The statistically significant model was developed with squared correlation coefficients (r(2)) 0.891 and cross validated r(2) (r(2) cv) 0.825. The developed model revealed that electronic, shape, size, geometry, substitution's information and hydrophilicity were important atomic properties for determining the inhibitory activity of these molecules. The model was also tested successfully for external validation (r(2) pred = 0.849) as well as Tropsha's test for model predictability. Furthermore, the domain analysis was carried out to evaluate the prediction reliability of external set molecules. The model was statistically robust and had good predictive power which can be successfully utilized for screening of new molecules.

Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon 'dieback'.

PubMed

Huntingford, Chris; Fisher, Rosie A; Mercado, Lina; Booth, Ben B B; Sitch, Stephen; Harris, Phil P; Cox, Peter M; Jones, Chris D; Betts, Richard A; Malhi, Yadvinder; Harris, Glen R; Collins, Mat; Moorcroft, Paul

2008-05-27

Simulations with the Hadley Centre general circulation model (HadCM3), including carbon cycle model and forced by a 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario, predict a rapid loss of Amazonian rainforest from the middle of this century onwards. The robustness of this projection to both uncertainty in physical climate drivers and the formulation of the land surface scheme is investigated. We analyse how the modelled vegetation cover in Amazonia responds to (i) uncertainty in the parameters specified in the atmosphere component of HadCM3 and their associated influence on predicted surface climate. We then enhance the land surface description and (ii) implement a multilayer canopy light interception model and compare with the simple 'big-leaf' approach used in the original simulations. Finally, (iii) we investigate the effect of changing the method of simulating vegetation dynamics from an area-based model (TRIFFID) to a more complex size- and age-structured approximation of an individual-based model (ecosystem demography). We find that the loss of Amazonian rainforest is robust across the climate uncertainty explored by perturbed physics simulations covering a wide range of global climate sensitivity. The introduction of the refined light interception model leads to an increase in simulated gross plant carbon uptake for the present day, but, with altered respiration, the net effect is a decrease in net primary productivity. However, this does not significantly affect the carbon loss from vegetation and soil as a consequence of future simulated depletion in soil moisture; the Amazon forest is still lost. The introduction of the more sophisticated dynamic vegetation model reduces but does not halt the rate of forest dieback. The potential for human-induced climate change to trigger the loss of Amazon rainforest appears robust within the context of the uncertainties explored in this paper. Some further uncertainties should be explored, particularly with respect to the representation of rooting depth.

Mammalian phylogenetic diversity-area relationships at a continental scale

PubMed Central

Mazel, Florent; Renaud, Julien; Guilhaumon, François; Mouillot, David; Gravel, Dominique; Thuiller, Wilfried

2015-01-01

In analogy to the species-area relationship (SAR), one of the few laws in Ecology, the phylogenetic diversity-area relationship (PDAR) describes the tendency of phylogenetic diversity (PD) to increase with area. Although investigating PDAR has the potential to unravel the underlying processes shaping assemblages across spatial scales and to predict PD loss through habitat reduction, it has been little investigated so far. Focusing on PD has noticeable advantages compared to species richness (SR) since PD also gives insights on processes such as speciation/extinction, assembly rules and ecosystem functioning. Here we investigate the universality and pervasiveness of the PDAR at continental scale using terrestrial mammals as study case. We define the relative robustness of PD (compared to SR) to habitat loss as the area between the standardized PDAR and standardized SAR (i.e. standardized by the diversity of the largest spatial window) divided by the area under the standardized SAR only. This metric quantifies the relative increase of PD robustness compared to SR robustness. We show that PD robustness is higher than SR robustness but that it varies among continents. We further use a null model approach to disentangle the relative effect of phylogenetic tree shape and non random spatial distribution of evolutionary history on the PDAR. We find that for most spatial scales and for all continents except Eurasia, PDARs are not different from expected by a model using only the observed SAR and the shape of the phylogenetic tree at continental scale. Interestingly, we detect a strong phylogenetic structure of the Eurasian PDAR that can be predicted by a model that specifically account for a finer biogeographical delineation of this continent. In conclusion, the relative robustness of PD to habitat loss compared to species richness is determined by the phylogenetic tree shape but also depends on the spatial structure of PD. PMID:26649401

Multi-Hypothesis Modelling Capabilities for Robust Data-Model Integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, A. P.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Lu, D.; Medlyn, B.; Norby, R. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Rogers, A.; Serbin, S.; Weston, D. J.; Ye, M.; Zaehle, S.

2017-12-01

Large uncertainty is often inherent in model predictions due to imperfect knowledge of how to describe the mechanistic processes (hypotheses) that a model is intended to represent. Yet this model hypothesis uncertainty (MHU) is often overlooked or informally evaluated, as methods to quantify and evaluate MHU are limited. MHU is increased as models become more complex because each additional processes added to a model comes with inherent MHU as well as parametric unceratinty. With the current trend of adding more processes to Earth System Models (ESMs), we are adding uncertainty, which can be quantified for parameters but not MHU. Model inter-comparison projects do allow for some consideration of hypothesis uncertainty but in an ad hoc and non-independent fashion. This has stymied efforts to evaluate ecosystem models against data and intepret the results mechanistically because it is not simple to interpret exactly why a model is producing the results it does and identify which model assumptions are key as they combine models of many sub-systems and processes, each of which may be conceptualised and represented mathematically in various ways. We present a novel modelling framework—the multi-assumption architecture and testbed (MAAT)—that automates the combination, generation, and execution of a model ensemble built with different representations of process. We will present the argument that multi-hypothesis modelling needs to be considered in conjunction with other capabilities (e.g. the Predictive Ecosystem Analyser; PecAn) and statistical methods (e.g. sensitivity anaylsis, data assimilation) to aid efforts in robust data model integration to enhance our predictive understanding of biological systems.

A conservative fully implicit algorithm for predicting slug flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krasnopolsky, Boris I.; Lukyanov, Alexander A.

2018-02-01

An accurate and predictive modelling of slug flows is required by many industries (e.g., oil and gas, nuclear engineering, chemical engineering) to prevent undesired events potentially leading to serious environmental accidents. For example, the hydrodynamic and terrain-induced slugging leads to unwanted unsteady flow conditions. This demands the development of fast and robust numerical techniques for predicting slug flows. The presented in this paper study proposes a multi-fluid model and its implementation method accounting for phase appearance and disappearance. The numerical modelling of phase appearance and disappearance presents a complex numerical challenge for all multi-component and multi-fluid models. Numerical challenges arise from the singular systems of equations when some phases are absent and from the solution discontinuity when some phases appear or disappear. This paper provides a flexible and robust solution to these issues. A fully implicit formulation described in this work enables to efficiently solve governing fluid flow equations. The proposed numerical method provides a modelling capability of phase appearance and disappearance processes, which is based on switching procedure between various sets of governing equations. These sets of equations are constructed using information about the number of phases present in the computational domain. The proposed scheme does not require an explicit truncation of solutions leading to a conservative scheme for mass and linear momentum. A transient two-fluid model is used to verify and validate the proposed algorithm for conditions of hydrodynamic and terrain-induced slug flow regimes. The developed modelling capabilities allow to predict all the major features of the experimental data, and are in a good quantitative agreement with them.

SU-F-R-44: Modeling Lung SBRT Tumor Response Using Bayesian Network Averaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diamant, A; Ybarra, N; Seuntjens, J

2016-06-15

Purpose: The prediction of tumor control after a patient receives lung SBRT (stereotactic body radiation therapy) has proven to be challenging, due to the complex interactions between an individual’s biology and dose-volume metrics. Many of these variables have predictive power when combined, a feature that we exploit using a graph modeling approach based on Bayesian networks. This provides a probabilistic framework that allows for accurate and visually intuitive predictive modeling. The aim of this study is to uncover possible interactions between an individual patient’s characteristics and generate a robust model capable of predicting said patient’s treatment outcome. Methods: We investigatedmore » a cohort of 32 prospective patients from multiple institutions whom had received curative SBRT to the lung. The number of patients exhibiting tumor failure was observed to be 7 (event rate of 22%). The serum concentration of 5 biomarkers previously associated with NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) was measured pre-treatment. A total of 21 variables were analyzed including: dose-volume metrics with BED (biologically effective dose) correction and clinical variables. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior probability distribution of the potential graphical structures. The probability of tumor failure was then estimated by averaging the top 100 graphs and applying Baye’s rule. Results: The optimal Bayesian model generated throughout this study incorporated the PTV volume, the serum concentration of the biomarker EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) and prescription BED. This predictive model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94(1), providing better performance compared to competing methods in other literature. Conclusion: The use of biomarkers in conjunction with dose-volume metrics allows for the generation of a robust predictive model. The preliminary results of this report demonstrate that it is possible to accurately model the prognosis of an individual lung SBRT patient’s treatment.« less

Characterization of recent and minimally passaged Brazilian dengue viruses inducing robust infection in rhesus macaques

PubMed Central

Borges, Maria Beatriz; Marchevsky, Renato Sergio; Mendes, Ygara S.; Mendes, Luiz Gustavo; Duarte, Ana Claudia; Cruz, Michael; de Filippis, Ana Maria Bispo; Vasconcelos, Pedro Fernando C.; Freire, Marcos; Homma, Akira; Mossman, Sally; Lepine, Edith; Vanloubbeeck, Yannick; Lorin, Clarisse; Malice, Marie-Pierre; Caride, Elena

2018-01-01

The macaque is widely accepted as a suitable model for preclinical characterization of dengue vaccine candidates. However, the only vaccine for which both preclinical and clinical efficacy results were reported so far showed efficacy levels that were substantially different between macaques and humans. We hypothesized that this model’s predictive capacity may be improved using recent and minimally passaged dengue virus isolates, and by assessing vaccine efficacy by characterizing not only the post-dengue virus challenge viremia/RNAemia but also the associated-cytokine profile. Ten recent and minimally passaged Brazilian clinical isolates from the four dengue virus serotypes were tested for their infectivity in rhesus macaques. For the strains showing robust replication capacity, the associated-changes in soluble mediator levels, and the elicited dengue virus-neutralizing antibody responses, were also characterized. Three isolates from dengue virus serotypes 1, 2 and 4 induced viremia of high magnitude and longer duration relative to previously reported viremia kinetics in this model, and robust dengue virus-neutralizing antibody responses. Consistent with observations in humans, increased MCP-1, IFN-γ and VEGF-A levels, and transiently decreased IL-8 levels were detected after infection with the selected isolates. These results may contribute to establishing a dengue macaque model showing a higher predictability for vaccine efficacy in humans. PMID:29694440

Cox regression analysis with missing covariates via nonparametric multiple imputation.

PubMed

Hsu, Chiu-Hsieh; Yu, Mandi

2018-01-01

We consider the situation of estimating Cox regression in which some covariates are subject to missing, and there exists additional information (including observed event time, censoring indicator and fully observed covariates) which may be predictive of the missing covariates. We propose to use two working regression models: one for predicting the missing covariates and the other for predicting the missing probabilities. For each missing covariate observation, these two working models are used to define a nearest neighbor imputing set. This set is then used to non-parametrically impute covariate values for the missing observation. Upon the completion of imputation, Cox regression is performed on the multiply imputed datasets to estimate the regression coefficients. In a simulation study, we compare the nonparametric multiple imputation approach with the augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) method, which directly incorporates the two working models into estimation of Cox regression, and the predictive mean matching imputation (PMM) method. We show that all approaches can reduce bias due to non-ignorable missing mechanism. The proposed nonparametric imputation method is robust to mis-specification of either one of the two working models and robust to mis-specification of the link function of the two working models. In contrast, the PMM method is sensitive to misspecification of the covariates included in imputation. The AIPW method is sensitive to the selection probability. We apply the approaches to a breast cancer dataset from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program.

Towards more accurate and reliable predictions for nuclear applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goriely, Stephane; Hilaire, Stephane; Dubray, Noel; Lemaître, Jean-François

2017-09-01

The need for nuclear data far from the valley of stability, for applications such as nuclear astrophysics or future nuclear facilities, challenges the robustness as well as the predictive power of present nuclear models. Most of the nuclear data evaluation and prediction are still performed on the basis of phenomenological nuclear models. For the last decades, important progress has been achieved in fundamental nuclear physics, making it now feasible to use more reliable, but also more complex microscopic or semi-microscopic models in the evaluation and prediction of nuclear data for practical applications. Nowadays mean-field models can be tuned at the same level of accuracy as the phenomenological models, renormalized on experimental data if needed, and therefore can replace the phenomenological inputs in the evaluation of nuclear data. The latest achievements to determine nuclear masses within the non-relativistic HFB approach, including the related uncertainties in the model predictions, are discussed. Similarly, recent efforts to determine fission observables within the mean-field approach are described and compared with more traditional existing models.

Enhancing Flood Prediction Reliability Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Merwade, V.

2017-12-01

Uncertainty analysis is an indispensable part of modeling the hydrology and hydrodynamics of non-idealized environmental systems. Compared to reliance on prediction from one model simulation, using on ensemble of predictions that consider uncertainty from different sources is more reliable. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to Black River watershed in Arkansas and Missouri by combining multi-model simulations to get reliable deterministic water stage and probabilistic inundation extent predictions. The simulation ensemble is generated from 81 LISFLOOD-FP subgrid model configurations that include uncertainty from channel shape, channel width, channel roughness and discharge. Model simulation outputs are trained with observed water stage data during one flood event, and BMA prediction ability is validated for another flood event. Results from this study indicate that BMA does not always outperform all members in the ensemble, but it provides relatively robust deterministic flood stage predictions across the basin. Station based BMA (BMA_S) water stage prediction has better performance than global based BMA (BMA_G) prediction which is superior to the ensemble mean prediction. Additionally, high-frequency flood inundation extent (probability greater than 60%) in BMA_G probabilistic map is more accurate than the probabilistic flood inundation extent based on equal weights.

Efficient Robust Optimization of Metal Forming Processes using a Sequential Metamodel Based Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiebenga, J. H.; Klaseboer, G.; van den Boogaard, A. H.

2011-08-01

The coupling of Finite Element (FE) simulations to mathematical optimization techniques has contributed significantly to product improvements and cost reductions in the metal forming industries. The next challenge is to bridge the gap between deterministic optimization techniques and the industrial need for robustness. This paper introduces a new and generally applicable structured methodology for modeling and solving robust optimization problems. Stochastic design variables or noise variables are taken into account explicitly in the optimization procedure. The metamodel-based strategy is combined with a sequential improvement algorithm to efficiently increase the accuracy of the objective function prediction. This is only done at regions of interest containing the optimal robust design. Application of the methodology to an industrial V-bending process resulted in valuable process insights and an improved robust process design. Moreover, a significant improvement of the robustness (>2σ) was obtained by minimizing the deteriorating effects of several noise variables. The robust optimization results demonstrate the general applicability of the robust optimization strategy and underline the importance of including uncertainty and robustness explicitly in the numerical optimization procedure.

Mathematical prediction of core body temperature from environment, activity, and clothing: The heat strain decision aid (HSDA).

PubMed

Potter, Adam W; Blanchard, Laurie A; Friedl, Karl E; Cadarette, Bruce S; Hoyt, Reed W

2017-02-01

Physiological models provide useful summaries of complex interrelated regulatory functions. These can often be reduced to simple input requirements and simple predictions for pragmatic applications. This paper demonstrates this modeling efficiency by tracing the development of one such simple model, the Heat Strain Decision Aid (HSDA), originally developed to address Army needs. The HSDA, which derives from the Givoni-Goldman equilibrium body core temperature prediction model, uses 16 inputs from four elements: individual characteristics, physical activity, clothing biophysics, and environmental conditions. These inputs are used to mathematically predict core temperature (T c ) rise over time and can estimate water turnover from sweat loss. Based on a history of military applications such as derivation of training and mission planning tools, we conclude that the HSDA model is a robust integration of physiological rules that can guide a variety of useful predictions. The HSDA model is limited to generalized predictions of thermal strain and does not provide individualized predictions that could be obtained from physiological sensor data-driven predictive models. This fully transparent physiological model should be improved and extended with new findings and new challenging scenarios. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Optimal design of stimulus experiments for robust discrimination of biochemical reaction networks.

PubMed

Flassig, R J; Sundmacher, K

2012-12-01

Biochemical reaction networks in the form of coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs) provide a powerful modeling tool for understanding the dynamics of biochemical processes. During the early phase of modeling, scientists have to deal with a large pool of competing nonlinear models. At this point, discrimination experiments can be designed and conducted to obtain optimal data for selecting the most plausible model. Since biological ODE models have widely distributed parameters due to, e.g. biologic variability or experimental variations, model responses become distributed. Therefore, a robust optimal experimental design (OED) for model discrimination can be used to discriminate models based on their response probability distribution functions (PDFs). In this work, we present an optimal control-based methodology for designing optimal stimulus experiments aimed at robust model discrimination. For estimating the time-varying model response PDF, which results from the nonlinear propagation of the parameter PDF under the ODE dynamics, we suggest using the sigma-point approach. Using the model overlap (expected likelihood) as a robust discrimination criterion to measure dissimilarities between expected model response PDFs, we benchmark the proposed nonlinear design approach against linearization with respect to prediction accuracy and design quality for two nonlinear biological reaction networks. As shown, the sigma-point outperforms the linearization approach in the case of widely distributed parameter sets and/or existing multiple steady states. Since the sigma-point approach scales linearly with the number of model parameter, it can be applied to large systems for robust experimental planning. An implementation of the method in MATLAB/AMPL is available at http://www.uni-magdeburg.de/ivt/svt/person/rf/roed.html. flassig@mpi-magdeburg.mpg.de Supplementary data are are available at Bioinformatics online.

Real-World Application of Robust Design Optimization Assisted by Response Surface Approximation and Visual Data-Mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimoyama, Koji; Jeong, Shinkyu; Obayashi, Shigeru

A new approach for multi-objective robust design optimization was proposed and applied to a real-world design problem with a large number of objective functions. The present approach is assisted by response surface approximation and visual data-mining, and resulted in two major gains regarding computational time and data interpretation. The Kriging model for response surface approximation can markedly reduce the computational time for predictions of robustness. In addition, the use of self-organizing maps as a data-mining technique allows visualization of complicated design information between optimality and robustness in a comprehensible two-dimensional form. Therefore, the extraction and interpretation of trade-off relations between optimality and robustness of design, and also the location of sweet spots in the design space, can be performed in a comprehensive manner.

Multiple-Swarm Ensembles: Improving the Predictive Power and Robustness of Predictive Models and Its Use in Computational Biology.

PubMed

Alves, Pedro; Liu, Shuang; Wang, Daifeng; Gerstein, Mark

2018-01-01

Machine learning is an integral part of computational biology, and has already shown its use in various applications, such as prognostic tests. In the last few years in the non-biological machine learning community, ensembling techniques have shown their power in data mining competitions such as the Netflix challenge; however, such methods have not found wide use in computational biology. In this work, we endeavor to show how ensembling techniques can be applied to practical problems, including problems in the field of bioinformatics, and how they often outperform other machine learning techniques in both predictive power and robustness. Furthermore, we develop a methodology of ensembling, Multi-Swarm Ensemble (MSWE) by using multiple particle swarm optimizations and demonstrate its ability to further enhance the performance of ensembles.

Predicting Microstructure and Microsegregation in Multicomponent Aluminum Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xinyan; Ding, Ling; Chen, ShuangLin; Xie, Fanyou; Chu, M.; Chang, Y. Austin

Accurate predictions of microstructure and microsegregation in metallic alloys are highly important for applications such as alloy design and process optimization. Restricted assumptions concerning the phase diagram could easily lead to erroneous predictions. The best approach is to couple microsegregation modeling with phase diagram computations. A newly developed numerical model for the prediction of microstructure and microsegregation in multicomponent alloys during dendritic solidification was introduced. The micromodel is directly coupled with phase diagram calculations using a user-friendly and robust phase diagram calculation engine-PANDAT. Solid state back diffusion, undercooling and coarsening effects are included in this model, and the experimentally measured cooling curves are used as the inputs to carry out the calculations. This model has been used to predict the microstructure and microsegregation in two multicomponent aluminum alloys, 2219 and 7050. The calculated values were confirmed using results obtained from directional solidification.

Cole-Cole, linear and multivariate modeling of capacitance data for on-line monitoring of biomass.

PubMed

Dabros, Michal; Dennewald, Danielle; Currie, David J; Lee, Mark H; Todd, Robert W; Marison, Ian W; von Stockar, Urs

2009-02-01

This work evaluates three techniques of calibrating capacitance (dielectric) spectrometers used for on-line monitoring of biomass: modeling of cell properties using the theoretical Cole-Cole equation, linear regression of dual-frequency capacitance measurements on biomass concentration, and multivariate (PLS) modeling of scanning dielectric spectra. The performance and robustness of each technique is assessed during a sequence of validation batches in two experimental settings of differing signal noise. In more noisy conditions, the Cole-Cole model had significantly higher biomass concentration prediction errors than the linear and multivariate models. The PLS model was the most robust in handling signal noise. In less noisy conditions, the three models performed similarly. Estimates of the mean cell size were done additionally using the Cole-Cole and PLS models, the latter technique giving more satisfactory results.

Cheminformatics Analysis of EPA ToxCast Chemical Libraries to Identify Domains of Applicability for Predictive Toxicity Models and Prioritize Compounds for Toxicity Testing

EPA Science Inventory

An important goal of toxicology research is the development of robust methods that use in vitro and chemical structure information to predict in vivo toxicity endpoints. The US EPA ToxCast program is addressing this goal using ~600 in vitro assays to create bioactivity profiles o...

Assessing Predictive Properties of Genome-Wide Selection in Soybeans

PubMed Central

Xavier, Alencar; Muir, William M.; Rainey, Katy Martin

2016-01-01

Many economically important traits in plant breeding have low heritability or are difficult to measure. For these traits, genomic selection has attractive features and may boost genetic gains. Our goal was to evaluate alternative scenarios to implement genomic selection for yield components in soybean (Glycine max L. merr). We used a nested association panel with cross validation to evaluate the impacts of training population size, genotyping density, and prediction model on the accuracy of genomic prediction. Our results indicate that training population size was the factor most relevant to improvement in genome-wide prediction, with greatest improvement observed in training sets up to 2000 individuals. We discuss assumptions that influence the choice of the prediction model. Although alternative models had minor impacts on prediction accuracy, the most robust prediction model was the combination of reproducing kernel Hilbert space regression and BayesB. Higher genotyping density marginally improved accuracy. Our study finds that breeding programs seeking efficient genomic selection in soybeans would best allocate resources by investing in a representative training set. PMID:27317786

Effects of temporal and spatial resolution of calibration data on integrated hydrologic water quality model identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Sanyuan; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Büttner, Olaf; Rode, Michael

2014-05-01

Hydrological water quality modeling is increasingly used for investigating runoff and nutrient transport processes as well as watershed management but it is mostly unclear how data availablity determins model identification. In this study, the HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) model, which is a process-based, semi-distributed hydrological water quality model, was applied in two different mesoscale catchments (Selke (463 km2) and Weida (99 km2)) located in central Germany to simulate discharge and inorganic nitrogen (IN) transport. PEST and DREAM(ZS) were combined with the HYPE model to conduct parameter calibration and uncertainty analysis. Split-sample test was used for model calibration (1994-1999) and validation (1999-2004). IN concentration and daily IN load were found to be highly correlated with discharge, indicating that IN leaching is mainly controlled by runoff. Both dynamics and balances of water and IN load were well captured with NSE greater than 0.83 during validation period. Multi-objective calibration (calibrating hydrological and water quality parameters simultaneously) was found to outperform step-wise calibration in terms of model robustness. Multi-site calibration was able to improve model performance at internal sites, decrease parameter posterior uncertainty and prediction uncertainty. Nitrogen-process parameters calibrated using continuous daily averages of nitrate-N concentration observations produced better and more robust simulations of IN concentration and load, lower posterior parameter uncertainty and IN concentration prediction uncertainty compared to the calibration against uncontinuous biweekly nitrate-N concentration measurements. Both PEST and DREAM(ZS) are efficient in parameter calibration. However, DREAM(ZS) is more sound in terms of parameter identification and uncertainty analysis than PEST because of its capability to evolve parameter posterior distributions and estimate prediction uncertainty based on global search and Bayesian inference schemes.

A consensus least squares support vector regression (LS-SVR) for analysis of near-infrared spectra of plant samples.

PubMed

Li, Yankun; Shao, Xueguang; Cai, Wensheng

2007-04-15

Consensus modeling of combining the results of multiple independent models to produce a single prediction avoids the instability of single model. Based on the principle of consensus modeling, a consensus least squares support vector regression (LS-SVR) method for calibrating the near-infrared (NIR) spectra was proposed. In the proposed approach, NIR spectra of plant samples were firstly preprocessed using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) for filtering the spectral background and noise, then, consensus LS-SVR technique was used for building the calibration model. With an optimization of the parameters involved in the modeling, a satisfied model was achieved for predicting the content of reducing sugar in plant samples. The predicted results show that consensus LS-SVR model is more robust and reliable than the conventional partial least squares (PLS) and LS-SVR methods.

Firefly as a novel swarm intelligence variable selection method in spectroscopy.

PubMed

Goodarzi, Mohammad; dos Santos Coelho, Leandro

2014-12-10

A critical step in multivariate calibration is wavelength selection, which is used to build models with better prediction performance when applied to spectral data. Up to now, many feature selection techniques have been developed. Among all different types of feature selection techniques, those based on swarm intelligence optimization methodologies are more interesting since they are usually simulated based on animal and insect life behavior to, e.g., find the shortest path between a food source and their nests. This decision is made by a crowd, leading to a more robust model with less falling in local minima during the optimization cycle. This paper represents a novel feature selection approach to the selection of spectroscopic data, leading to more robust calibration models. The performance of the firefly algorithm, a swarm intelligence paradigm, was evaluated and compared with genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization. All three techniques were coupled with partial least squares (PLS) and applied to three spectroscopic data sets. They demonstrate improved prediction results in comparison to when only a PLS model was built using all wavelengths. Results show that firefly algorithm as a novel swarm paradigm leads to a lower number of selected wavelengths while the prediction performance of built PLS stays the same. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Statistical variation in progressive scrambling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Robert D.; Fox, Peter C.

2004-07-01

The two methods most often used to evaluate the robustness and predictivity of partial least squares (PLS) models are cross-validation and response randomization. Both methods may be overly optimistic for data sets that contain redundant observations, however. The kinds of perturbation analysis widely used for evaluating model stability in the context of ordinary least squares regression are only applicable when the descriptors are independent of each other and errors are independent and normally distributed; neither assumption holds for QSAR in general and for PLS in particular. Progressive scrambling is a novel, non-parametric approach to perturbing models in the response space in a way that does not disturb the underlying covariance structure of the data. Here, we introduce adjustments for two of the characteristic values produced by a progressive scrambling analysis - the deprecated predictivity (Q_s^{ast^2}) and standard error of prediction (SDEP s * ) - that correct for the effect of introduced perturbation. We also explore the statistical behavior of the adjusted values (Q_0^{ast^2} and SDEP 0 * ) and the sensitivity to perturbation (d q 2/d r yy ' 2). It is shown that the three statistics are all robust for stable PLS models, in terms of the stochastic component of their determination and of their variation due to sampling effects involved in training set selection.

Predicting the Accuracy of Protein–Ligand Docking on Homology Models

PubMed Central

BORDOGNA, ANNALISA; PANDINI, ALESSANDRO; BONATI, LAURA

2011-01-01

Ligand–protein docking is increasingly used in Drug Discovery. The initial limitations imposed by a reduced availability of target protein structures have been overcome by the use of theoretical models, especially those derived by homology modeling techniques. While this greatly extended the use of docking simulations, it also introduced the need for general and robust criteria to estimate the reliability of docking results given the model quality. To this end, a large-scale experiment was performed on a diverse set including experimental structures and homology models for a group of representative ligand–protein complexes. A wide spectrum of model quality was sampled using templates at different evolutionary distances and different strategies for target–template alignment and modeling. The obtained models were scored by a selection of the most used model quality indices. The binding geometries were generated using AutoDock, one of the most common docking programs. An important result of this study is that indeed quantitative and robust correlations exist between the accuracy of docking results and the model quality, especially in the binding site. Moreover, state-of-the-art indices for model quality assessment are already an effective tool for an a priori prediction of the accuracy of docking experiments in the context of groups of proteins with conserved structural characteristics. PMID:20607693

Multi-model predictive control based on LMI: from the adaptation of the state-space model to the analytic description of the control law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falugi, P.; Olaru, S.; Dumur, D.

2010-08-01

This article proposes an explicit robust predictive control solution based on linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). The considered predictive control strategy uses different local descriptions of the system dynamics and uncertainties and thus allows the handling of less conservative input constraints. The computed control law guarantees constraint satisfaction and asymptotic stability. The technique is effective for a class of nonlinear systems embedded into polytopic models. A detailed discussion of the procedures which adapt the partition of the state space is presented. For the practical implementation the construction of suitable (explicit) descriptions of the control law are described upon concrete algorithms.

Calibration sets selection strategy for the construction of robust PLS models for prediction of biodiesel/diesel blends physico-chemical properties using NIR spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palou, Anna; Miró, Aira; Blanco, Marcelo; Larraz, Rafael; Gómez, José Francisco; Martínez, Teresa; González, Josep Maria; Alcalà, Manel

2017-06-01

Even when the feasibility of using near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy combined with partial least squares (PLS) regression for prediction of physico-chemical properties of biodiesel/diesel blends has been widely demonstrated, inclusion in the calibration sets of the whole variability of diesel samples from diverse production origins still remains as an important challenge when constructing the models. This work presents a useful strategy for the systematic selection of calibration sets of samples of biodiesel/diesel blends from diverse origins, based on a binary code, principal components analysis (PCA) and the Kennard-Stones algorithm. Results show that using this methodology the models can keep their robustness over time. PLS calculations have been done using a specialized chemometric software as well as the software of the NIR instrument installed in plant, and both produced RMSEP under reproducibility values of the reference methods. The models have been proved for on-line simultaneous determination of seven properties: density, cetane index, fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) content, cloud point, boiling point at 95% of recovery, flash point and sulphur.

Diagnosing the impact of alternative calibration strategies on coupled hydrologic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, T. J.; Perera, C.; Corrigan, C.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic models represent a significant tool for understanding, predicting, and responding to the impacts of water on society and society on water resources and, as such, are used extensively in water resources planning and management. Given this important role, the validity and fidelity of hydrologic models is imperative. While extensive focus has been paid to improving hydrologic models through better process representation, better parameter estimation, and better uncertainty quantification, significant challenges remain. In this study, we explore a number of competing model calibration scenarios for simple, coupled snowmelt-runoff models to better understand the sensitivity / variability of parameterizations and its impact on model performance, robustness, fidelity, and transferability. Our analysis highlights the sensitivity of coupled snowmelt-runoff model parameterizations to alterations in calibration approach, underscores the concept of information content in hydrologic modeling, and provides insight into potential strategies for improving model robustness / fidelity.

Linear and nonlinear models for predicting fish bioconcentration factors for pesticides.

PubMed

Yuan, Jintao; Xie, Chun; Zhang, Ting; Sun, Jinfang; Yuan, Xuejie; Yu, Shuling; Zhang, Yingbiao; Cao, Yunyuan; Yu, Xingchen; Yang, Xuan; Yao, Wu

2016-08-01

This work is devoted to the applications of the multiple linear regression (MLR), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP NN) and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to quantitative structure-property relationship analysis of bioconcentration factors (BCFs) of pesticides tested on Bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus). Molecular descriptors of a total of 107 pesticides were calculated with the DRAGON Software and selected by inverse enhanced replacement method. Based on the selected DRAGON descriptors, a linear model was built by MLR, nonlinear models were developed using MLP NN and PPR. The robustness of the obtained models was assessed by cross-validation and external validation using test set. Outliers were also examined and deleted to improve predictive power. Comparative results revealed that PPR achieved the most accurate predictions. This study offers useful models and information for BCF prediction, risk assessment, and pesticide formulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and predictions of biphasic mechanosensitive cell migration altered by cell-intrinsic properties and matrix confinement.

PubMed

Pathak, Amit

2018-04-12

Motile cells sense the stiffness of their extracellular matrix (ECM) through adhesions and respond by modulating the generated forces, which in turn lead to varying mechanosensitive migration phenotypes. Through modeling and experiments, cell migration speed is known to vary with matrix stiffness in a biphasic manner, with optimal motility at an intermediate stiffness. Here, we present a two-dimensional cell model defined by nodes and elements, integrated with subcellular modeling components corresponding to mechanotransductive adhesion formation, force generation, protrusions and node displacement. On 2D matrices, our calculations reproduce the classic biphasic dependence of migration speed on matrix stiffness and predict that cell types with higher force-generating ability do not slow down on very stiff matrices, thus disabling the biphasic response. We also predict that cell types defined by lower number of total receptors require stiffer matrices for optimal motility, which also limits the biphasic response. For a cell type with robust biphasic migration on 2D surface, simulations in channel-like confined environments of varying width and height predict faster migration in more confined matrices. Simulations performed in shallower channels predict that the biphasic mechanosensitive cell migration response is more robust on 2D micro-patterns as compared to the channel-like 3D confinement. Thus, variations in the dimensionality of matrix confinement alters the way migratory cells sense and respond to the matrix stiffness. Our calculations reveal new phenotypes of stiffness- and topography-sensitive cell migration that critically depend on both cell-intrinsic and matrix properties. These predictions may inform our understanding of various mechanosensitive modes of cell motility that could enable tumor invasion through topographically heterogeneous microenvironments. © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.

A Crowdsourcing Approach to Developing and Assessing Prediction Algorithms for AML Prognosis

PubMed Central

Noren, David P.; Long, Byron L.; Norel, Raquel; Rrhissorrakrai, Kahn; Hess, Kenneth; Hu, Chenyue Wendy; Bisberg, Alex J.; Schultz, Andre; Engquist, Erik; Liu, Li; Lin, Xihui; Chen, Gregory M.; Xie, Honglei; Hunter, Geoffrey A. M.; Norman, Thea; Friend, Stephen H.; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Kornblau, Steven; Qutub, Amina A.

2016-01-01

Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) is a fatal hematological cancer. The genetic abnormalities underlying AML are extremely heterogeneous among patients, making prognosis and treatment selection very difficult. While clinical proteomics data has the potential to improve prognosis accuracy, thus far, the quantitative means to do so have yet to be developed. Here we report the results and insights gained from the DREAM 9 Acute Myeloid Prediction Outcome Prediction Challenge (AML-OPC), a crowdsourcing effort designed to promote the development of quantitative methods for AML prognosis prediction. We identify the most accurate and robust models in predicting patient response to therapy, remission duration, and overall survival. We further investigate patient response to therapy, a clinically actionable prediction, and find that patients that are classified as resistant to therapy are harder to predict than responsive patients across the 31 models submitted to the challenge. The top two performing models, which held a high sensitivity to these patients, substantially utilized the proteomics data to make predictions. Using these models, we also identify which signaling proteins were useful in predicting patient therapeutic response. PMID:27351836

Development of polyparameter linear free energy relationship models for octanol-air partition coefficients of diverse chemicals.

PubMed

Jin, Xiaochen; Fu, Zhiqiang; Li, Xuehua; Chen, Jingwen

2017-03-22

The octanol-air partition coefficient (K OA ) is a key parameter describing the partition behavior of organic chemicals between air and environmental organic phases. As the experimental determination of K OA is costly, time-consuming and sometimes limited by the availability of authentic chemical standards for the compounds to be determined, it becomes necessary to develop credible predictive models for K OA . In this study, a polyparameter linear free energy relationship (pp-LFER) model for predicting K OA at 298.15 K and a novel model incorporating pp-LFERs with temperature (pp-LFER-T model) were developed from 795 log K OA values for 367 chemicals at different temperatures (263.15-323.15 K), and were evaluated with the OECD guidelines on QSAR model validation and applicability domain description. Statistical results show that both models are well-fitted, robust and have good predictive capabilities. Particularly, the pp-LFER model shows a strong predictive ability for polyfluoroalkyl substances and organosilicon compounds, and the pp-LFER-T model maintains a high predictive accuracy within a wide temperature range (263.15-323.15 K).

Simulating urban-scale air pollutants and their predicting capabilities over the Seoul metropolitan area.

PubMed

Park, Il-Soo; Lee, Suk-Jo; Kim, Cheol-Hee; Yoo, Chul; Lee, Yong-Hee

2004-06-01

Urban-scale air pollutants for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter > or = 10 microm, and ozone (O3) were simulated over the Seoul metropolitan area, Korea, during the period of July 2-11, 2002, and their predicting capabilities were discussed. The Air Pollution Model (TAPM) and the highly disaggregated anthropogenic and the biogenic gridded emissions (1 km x 1 km) recently prepared by the Korean Ministry of Environment were applied. Wind fields with observational nudging in the prognostic meteorological model TAPM are optionally adopted to comparatively examine the meteorological impact on the prediction capabilities of urban-scale air pollutants. The result shows that the simulated concentrations of secondary air pollutant largely agree with observed levels with an index of agreement (IOA) of >0.6, whereas IOAs of approximately 0.4 are found for most primary pollutants in the major cities, reflecting the quality of emission data in the urban area. The observationally nudged wind fields with higher IOAs have little effect on the prediction for both primary and secondary air pollutants, implying that the detailed wind field does not consistently improve the urban air pollution model performance if emissions are not well specified. However, the robust highest concentrations are better described toward observations by imposing observational nudging, suggesting the importance of wind fields for the predictions of extreme concentrations such as robust highest concentrations, maximum levels, and >90th percentiles of concentrations for both primary and secondary urban-scale air pollutants.

Neural networks to predict exosphere temperature corrections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choury, Anna; Bruinsma, Sean; Schaeffer, Philippe

2013-10-01

Precise orbit prediction requires a forecast of the atmospheric drag force with a high degree of accuracy. Artificial neural networks are universal approximators derived from artificial intelligence and are widely used for prediction. This paper presents a method of artificial neural networking for prediction of the thermosphere density by forecasting exospheric temperature, which will be used by the semiempirical thermosphere Drag Temperature Model (DTM) currently developed. Artificial neural network has shown to be an effective and robust forecasting model for temperature prediction. The proposed model can be used for any mission from which temperature can be deduced accurately, i.e., it does not require specific training. Although the primary goal of the study was to create a model for 1 day ahead forecast, the proposed architecture has been generalized to 2 and 3 days prediction as well. The impact of artificial neural network predictions has been quantified for the low-orbiting satellite Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer in 2011, and an order of magnitude smaller orbit errors were found when compared with orbits propagated using the thermosphere model DTM2009.

Model based inference from microvascular measurements: Combining experimental measurements and model predictions using a Bayesian probabilistic approach

PubMed Central

Rasmussen, Peter M.; Smith, Amy F.; Sakadžić, Sava; Boas, David A.; Pries, Axel R.; Secomb, Timothy W.; Østergaard, Leif

2017-01-01

Objective In vivo imaging of the microcirculation and network-oriented modeling have emerged as powerful means of studying microvascular function and understanding its physiological significance. Network-oriented modeling may provide the means of summarizing vast amounts of data produced by high-throughput imaging techniques in terms of key, physiological indices. To estimate such indices with sufficient certainty, however, network-oriented analysis must be robust to the inevitable presence of uncertainty due to measurement errors as well as model errors. Methods We propose the Bayesian probabilistic data analysis framework as a means of integrating experimental measurements and network model simulations into a combined and statistically coherent analysis. The framework naturally handles noisy measurements and provides posterior distributions of model parameters as well as physiological indices associated with uncertainty. Results We applied the analysis framework to experimental data from three rat mesentery networks and one mouse brain cortex network. We inferred distributions for more than five hundred unknown pressure and hematocrit boundary conditions. Model predictions were consistent with previous analyses, and remained robust when measurements were omitted from model calibration. Conclusion Our Bayesian probabilistic approach may be suitable for optimizing data acquisition and for analyzing and reporting large datasets acquired as part of microvascular imaging studies. PMID:27987383

Performance and robustness of hybrid model predictive control for controllable dampers in building models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Erik A.; Elhaddad, Wael M.; Wojtkiewicz, Steven F.

2016-04-01

A variety of strategies have been developed over the past few decades to determine controllable damping device forces to mitigate the response of structures and mechanical systems to natural hazards and other excitations. These "smart" damping devices produce forces through passive means but have properties that can be controlled in real time, based on sensor measurements of response across the structure, to dramatically reduce structural motion by exploiting more than the local "information" that is available to purely passive devices. A common strategy is to design optimal damping forces using active control approaches and then try to reproduce those forces with the smart damper. However, these design forces, for some structures and performance objectives, may achieve high performance by selectively adding energy, which cannot be replicated by a controllable damping device, causing the smart damper performance to fall far short of what an active system would provide. The authors have recently demonstrated that a model predictive control strategy using hybrid system models, which utilize both continuous and binary states (the latter to capture the switching behavior between dissipative and non-dissipative forces), can provide reductions in structural response on the order of 50% relative to the conventional clipped-optimal design strategy. This paper explores the robustness of this newly proposed control strategy through evaluating controllable damper performance when the structure model differs from the nominal one used to design the damping strategy. Results from the application to a two-degree-of-freedom structure model confirms the robustness of the proposed strategy.

Macrocell path loss prediction using artificial intelligence techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usman, Abraham U.; Okereke, Okpo U.; Omizegba, Elijah E.

2014-04-01

The prediction of propagation loss is a practical non-linear function approximation problem which linear regression or auto-regression models are limited in their ability to handle. However, some computational Intelligence techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFISs) have been shown to have great ability to handle non-linear function approximation and prediction problems. In this study, the multiple layer perceptron neural network (MLP-NN), radial basis function neural network (RBF-NN) and an ANFIS network were trained using actual signal strength measurement taken at certain suburban areas of Bauchi metropolis, Nigeria. The trained networks were then used to predict propagation losses at the stated areas under differing conditions. The predictions were compared with the prediction accuracy of the popular Hata model. It was observed that ANFIS model gave a better fit in all cases having higher R2 values in each case and on average is more robust than MLP and RBF models as it generalises better to a different data.

Individualized relapse prediction: Personality measures and striatal and insular activity during reward-processing robustly predict relapse.

PubMed

Gowin, Joshua L; Ball, Tali M; Wittmann, Marc; Tapert, Susan F; Paulus, Martin P

2015-07-01

Nearly half of individuals with substance use disorders relapse in the year after treatment. A diagnostic tool to help clinicians make decisions regarding treatment does not exist for psychiatric conditions. Identifying individuals with high risk for relapse to substance use following abstinence has profound clinical consequences. This study aimed to develop neuroimaging as a robust tool to predict relapse. 68 methamphetamine-dependent adults (15 female) were recruited from 28-day inpatient treatment. During treatment, participants completed a functional MRI scan that examined brain activation during reward processing. Patients were followed 1 year later to assess abstinence. We examined brain activation during reward processing between relapsing and abstaining individuals and employed three random forest prediction models (clinical and personality measures, neuroimaging measures, a combined model) to generate predictions for each participant regarding their relapse likelihood. 18 individuals relapsed. There were significant group by reward-size interactions for neural activation in the left insula and right striatum for rewards. Abstaining individuals showed increased activation for large, risky relative to small, safe rewards, whereas relapsing individuals failed to show differential activation between reward types. All three random forest models yielded good test characteristics such that a positive test for relapse yielded a likelihood ratio 2.63, whereas a negative test had a likelihood ratio of 0.48. These findings suggest that neuroimaging can be developed in combination with other measures as an instrument to predict relapse, advancing tools providers can use to make decisions about individualized treatment of substance use disorders. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Evaluation of a computational model to predict elbow range of motion

PubMed Central

Nishiwaki, Masao; Johnson, James A.; King, Graham J. W.; Athwal, George S.

2014-01-01

Computer models capable of predicting elbow flexion and extension range of motion (ROM) limits would be useful for assisting surgeons in improving the outcomes of surgical treatment of patients with elbow contractures. A simple and robust computer-based model was developed that predicts elbow joint ROM using bone geometries calculated from computed tomography image data. The model assumes a hinge-like flexion-extension axis, and that elbow passive ROM limits can be based on terminal bony impingement. The model was validated against experimental results with a cadaveric specimen, and was able to predict the flexion and extension limits of the intact joint to 0° and 3°, respectively. The model was also able to predict the flexion and extension limits to 1° and 2°, respectively, when simulated osteophytes were inserted into the joint. Future studies based on this approach will be used for the prediction of elbow flexion-extension ROM in patients with primary osteoarthritis to help identify motion-limiting hypertrophic osteophytes, and will eventually permit real-time computer-assisted navigated excisions. PMID:24841799

Five-equation and robust three-equation methods for solution verification of large eddy simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, Rabijit; Xing, Tao

2018-02-01

This study evaluates the recently developed general framework for solution verification methods for large eddy simulation (LES) using implicitly filtered LES of periodic channel flows at friction Reynolds number of 395 on eight systematically refined grids. The seven-equation method shows that the coupling error based on Hypothesis I is much smaller as compared with the numerical and modeling errors and therefore can be neglected. The authors recommend five-equation method based on Hypothesis II, which shows a monotonic convergence behavior of the predicted numerical benchmark ( S C ), and provides realistic error estimates without the need of fixing the orders of accuracy for either numerical or modeling errors. Based on the results from seven-equation and five-equation methods, less expensive three and four-equation methods for practical LES applications were derived. It was found that the new three-equation method is robust as it can be applied to any convergence types and reasonably predict the error trends. It was also observed that the numerical and modeling errors usually have opposite signs, which suggests error cancellation play an essential role in LES. When Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) based error estimation method is applied, it shows significant error in the prediction of S C on coarse meshes. However, it predicts reasonable S C when the grids resolve at least 80% of the total turbulent kinetic energy.

Ligand and structure-based methodologies for the prediction of the activity of G protein-coupled receptor ligands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costanzi, Stefano; Tikhonova, Irina G.; Harden, T. Kendall; Jacobson, Kenneth A.

2009-11-01

Accurate in silico models for the quantitative prediction of the activity of G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) ligands would greatly facilitate the process of drug discovery and development. Several methodologies have been developed based on the properties of the ligands, the direct study of the receptor-ligand interactions, or a combination of both approaches. Ligand-based three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationships (3D-QSAR) techniques, not requiring knowledge of the receptor structure, have been historically the first to be applied to the prediction of the activity of GPCR ligands. They are generally endowed with robustness and good ranking ability; however they are highly dependent on training sets. Structure-based techniques generally do not provide the level of accuracy necessary to yield meaningful rankings when applied to GPCR homology models. However, they are essentially independent from training sets and have a sufficient level of accuracy to allow an effective discrimination between binders and nonbinders, thus qualifying as viable lead discovery tools. The combination of ligand and structure-based methodologies in the form of receptor-based 3D-QSAR and ligand and structure-based consensus models results in robust and accurate quantitative predictions. The contribution of the structure-based component to these combined approaches is expected to become more substantial and effective in the future, as more sophisticated scoring functions are developed and more detailed structural information on GPCRs is gathered.

ℓ(p)-Norm multikernel learning approach for stock market price forecasting.

PubMed

Shao, Xigao; Wu, Kun; Liao, Bifeng

2012-01-01

Linear multiple kernel learning model has been used for predicting financial time series. However, ℓ(1)-norm multiple support vector regression is rarely observed to outperform trivial baselines in practical applications. To allow for robust kernel mixtures that generalize well, we adopt ℓ(p)-norm multiple kernel support vector regression (1 ≤ p < ∞) as a stock price prediction model. The optimization problem is decomposed into smaller subproblems, and the interleaved optimization strategy is employed to solve the regression model. The model is evaluated on forecasting the daily stock closing prices of Shanghai Stock Index in China. Experimental results show that our proposed model performs better than ℓ(1)-norm multiple support vector regression model.

[GSH fermentation process modeling using entropy-criterion based RBF neural network model].

PubMed

Tan, Zuoping; Wang, Shitong; Deng, Zhaohong; Du, Guocheng

2008-05-01

The prediction accuracy and generalization of GSH fermentation process modeling are often deteriorated by noise existing in the corresponding experimental data. In order to avoid this problem, we present a novel RBF neural network modeling approach based on entropy criterion. It considers the whole distribution structure of the training data set in the parameter learning process compared with the traditional MSE-criterion based parameter learning, and thus effectively avoids the weak generalization and over-learning. Then the proposed approach is applied to the GSH fermentation process modeling. Our results demonstrate that this proposed method has better prediction accuracy, generalization and robustness such that it offers a potential application merit for the GSH fermentation process modeling.

Predicting emergency department volume using forecasting methods to create a "surge response" for noncrisis events.

PubMed

Chase, Valerie J; Cohn, Amy E M; Peterson, Timothy A; Lavieri, Mariel S

2012-05-01

This study investigated whether emergency department (ED) variables could be used in mathematical models to predict a future surge in ED volume based on recent levels of use of physician capacity. The models may be used to guide decisions related to on-call staffing in non-crisis-related surges of patient volume. A retrospective analysis was conducted using information spanning July 2009 through June 2010 from a large urban teaching hospital with a Level I trauma center. A comparison of significance was used to assess the impact of multiple patient-specific variables on the state of the ED. Physician capacity was modeled based on historical physician treatment capacity and productivity. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to determine the probability that the available physician capacity would be sufficient to treat all patients forecasted to arrive in the next time period. The prediction horizons used were 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 2 hours, 4 hours, 8 hours, and 12 hours. Five consecutive months of patient data from July 2010 through November 2010, similar to the data used to generate the models, was used to validate the models. Positive predictive values, Type I and Type II errors, and real-time accuracy in predicting noncrisis surge events were used to evaluate the forecast accuracy of the models. The ratio of new patients requiring treatment over total physician capacity (termed the care utilization ratio [CUR]) was deemed a robust predictor of the state of the ED (with a CUR greater than 1 indicating that the physician capacity would not be sufficient to treat all patients forecasted to arrive). Prediction intervals of 30 minutes, 8 hours, and 12 hours performed best of all models analyzed, with deviances of 1.000, 0.951, and 0.864, respectively. A 95% significance was used to validate the models against the July 2010 through November 2010 data set. Positive predictive values ranged from 0.738 to 0.872, true positives ranged from 74% to 94%, and true negatives ranged from 70% to 90% depending on the threshold used to determine the state of the ED with the 30-minute prediction model. The CUR is a new and robust indicator of an ED system's performance. The study was able to model the tradeoff of longer time to response versus shorter but more accurate predictions, by investigating different prediction intervals. Current practice would have been improved by using the proposed models and would have identified the surge in patient volume earlier on noncrisis days. © 2012 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Development of variable pathlength UV-vis spectroscopy combined with partial-least-squares regression for wastewater chemical oxygen demand (COD) monitoring.

PubMed

Chen, Baisheng; Wu, Huanan; Li, Sam Fong Yau

2014-03-01

To overcome the challenging task to select an appropriate pathlength for wastewater chemical oxygen demand (COD) monitoring with high accuracy by UV-vis spectroscopy in wastewater treatment process, a variable pathlength approach combined with partial-least squares regression (PLSR) was developed in this study. Two new strategies were proposed to extract relevant information of UV-vis spectral data from variable pathlength measurements. The first strategy was by data fusion with two data fusion levels: low-level data fusion (LLDF) and mid-level data fusion (MLDF). Predictive accuracy was found to improve, indicated by the lower root-mean-square errors of prediction (RMSEP) compared with those obtained for single pathlength measurements. Both fusion levels were found to deliver very robust PLSR models with residual predictive deviations (RPD) greater than 3 (i.e. 3.22 and 3.29, respectively). The second strategy involved calculating the slopes of absorbance against pathlength at each wavelength to generate slope-derived spectra. Without the requirement to select the optimal pathlength, the predictive accuracy (RMSEP) was improved by 20-43% as compared to single pathlength spectroscopy. Comparing to nine-factor models from fusion strategy, the PLSR model from slope-derived spectroscopy was found to be more parsimonious with only five factors and more robust with residual predictive deviation (RPD) of 3.72. It also offered excellent correlation of predicted and measured COD values with R(2) of 0.936. In sum, variable pathlength spectroscopy with the two proposed data analysis strategies proved to be successful in enhancing prediction performance of COD in wastewater and showed high potential to be applied in on-line water quality monitoring. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Promises of Machine Learning Approaches in Prediction of Absorption of Compounds.

PubMed

Kumar, Rajnish; Sharma, Anju; Siddiqui, Mohammed Haris; Tiwari, Rajesh Kumar

2018-01-01

The Machine Learning (ML) is one of the fastest developing techniques in the prediction and evaluation of important pharmacokinetic properties such as absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion. The availability of a large number of robust validation techniques for prediction models devoted to pharmacokinetics has significantly enhanced the trust and authenticity in ML approaches. There is a series of prediction models generated and used for rapid screening of compounds on the basis of absorption in last one decade. Prediction of absorption of compounds using ML models has great potential across the pharmaceutical industry as a non-animal alternative to predict absorption. However, these prediction models still have to go far ahead to develop the confidence similar to conventional experimental methods for estimation of drug absorption. Some of the general concerns are selection of appropriate ML methods and validation techniques in addition to selecting relevant descriptors and authentic data sets for the generation of prediction models. The current review explores published models of ML for the prediction of absorption using physicochemical properties as descriptors and their important conclusions. In addition, some critical challenges in acceptance of ML models for absorption are also discussed. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

A Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship for acute oral toxicity of pesticides on rats: Validation, domain of application and prediction.

PubMed

Hamadache, Mabrouk; Benkortbi, Othmane; Hanini, Salah; Amrane, Abdeltif; Khaouane, Latifa; Si Moussa, Cherif

2016-02-13

Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) models are expected to play an important role in the risk assessment of chemicals on humans and the environment. In this study, we developed a validated QSAR model to predict acute oral toxicity of 329 pesticides to rats because a few QSAR models have been devoted to predict the Lethal Dose 50 (LD50) of pesticides on rats. This QSAR model is based on 17 molecular descriptors, and is robust, externally predictive and characterized by a good applicability domain. The best results were obtained with a 17/9/1 Artificial Neural Network model trained with the Quasi Newton back propagation (BFGS) algorithm. The prediction accuracy for the external validation set was estimated by the Q(2)ext and the root mean square error (RMS) which are equal to 0.948 and 0.201, respectively. 98.6% of external validation set is correctly predicted and the present model proved to be superior to models previously published. Accordingly, the model developed in this study provides excellent predictions and can be used to predict the acute oral toxicity of pesticides, particularly for those that have not been tested as well as new pesticides. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust Active Portfolio Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-11-27

the Markowitz mean-variance model led to development of the Capital Asset Pricing Model ( CAPM ) for asset pricing [35, 29, 23] which remains one of the...active portfolio management. Our model uses historical returns and equilibrium expected returns predicted by the CAPM to identify assets that are...incorrectly priced in the market. There is a fundamental inconsistency between the CAPM and active portfolio management. The CAPM assumes that markets are

iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

Treesearch

Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

2011-01-01

This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

The Robustness of Acoustic Analogies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freund, J. B.; Lele, S. K.; Wei, M.

2004-01-01

Acoustic analogies for the prediction of flow noise are exact rearrangements of the flow equations N(right arrow q) = 0 into a nominal sound source S(right arrow q) and sound propagation operator L such that L(right arrow q) = S(right arrow q). In practice, the sound source is typically modeled and the propagation operator inverted to make predictions. Since the rearrangement is exact, any sufficiently accurate model of the source will yield the correct sound, so other factors must determine the merits of any particular formulation. Using data from a two-dimensional mixing layer direct numerical simulation (DNS), we evaluate the robustness of two analogy formulations to different errors intentionally introduced into the source. The motivation is that since S can not be perfectly modeled, analogies that are less sensitive to errors in S are preferable. Our assessment is made within the framework of Goldstein's generalized acoustic analogy, in which different choices of a base flow used in constructing L give different sources S and thus different analogies. A uniform base flow yields a Lighthill-like analogy, which we evaluate against a formulation in which the base flow is the actual mean flow of the DNS. The more complex mean flow formulation is found to be significantly more robust to errors in the energetic turbulent fluctuations, but its advantage is less pronounced when errors are made in the smaller scales.

Effective prediction of biodiversity in tidal flat habitats using an artificial neural network.

PubMed

Yoo, Jae-Won; Lee, Yong-Woo; Lee, Chang-Gun; Kim, Chang-Soo

2013-02-01

Accurate predictions of benthic macrofaunal biodiversity greatly benefit the efficient planning and management of habitat restoration efforts in tidal flat habitats. Artificial neural network (ANN) prediction models for such biodiversity were developed and tested based on 13 biophysical variables, collected from 50 sites of tidal flats along the coast of Korea during 1991-2006. The developed model showed high predictions during training, cross-validation and testing. Besides the training and testing procedures, an independent dataset from a different time period (2007-2010) was used to test the robustness and practical usage of the model. High prediction on the independent dataset (r = 0.84) validated the networks proper learning of predictive relationship and its generality. Key influential variables identified by follow-up sensitivity analyses were related with topographic dimension, environmental heterogeneity, and water column properties. Study demonstrates the successful application of ANN for the accurate prediction of benthic macrofaunal biodiversity and understanding of dynamics of candidate variables. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust Fault Detection for Aircraft Using Mixed Structured Singular Value Theory and Fuzzy Logic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, Emmanuel G.

2000-01-01

The purpose of fault detection is to identify when a fault or failure has occurred in a system such as an aircraft or expendable launch vehicle. The faults may occur in sensors, actuators, structural components, etc. One of the primary approaches to model-based fault detection relies on analytical redundancy. That is the output of a computer-based model (actually a state estimator) is compared with the sensor measurements of the actual system to determine when a fault has occurred. Unfortunately, the state estimator is based on an idealized mathematical description of the underlying plant that is never totally accurate. As a result of these modeling errors, false alarms can occur. This research uses mixed structured singular value theory, a relatively recent and powerful robustness analysis tool, to develop robust estimators and demonstrates the use of these estimators in fault detection. To allow qualitative human experience to be effectively incorporated into the detection process fuzzy logic is used to predict the seriousness of the fault that has occurred.

Application of a time-magnitude prediction model for earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Weiping; Jin, Xueshen; Yang, Jialiang; Dong, Peng; Zhao, Jun; Zhang, He

2007-06-01

In this paper we discuss the physical meaning of the magnitude-time model parameters for earthquake prediction. The gestation process for strong earthquake in all eleven seismic zones in China can be described by the magnitude-time prediction model using the computations of the parameters of the model. The average model parameter values for China are: b = 0.383, c=0.154, d = 0.035, B = 0.844, C = -0.209, and D = 0.188. The robustness of the model parameters is estimated from the variation in the minimum magnitude of the transformed data, the spatial extent, and the temporal period. Analysis of the spatial and temporal suitability of the model indicates that the computation unit size should be at least 4° × 4° for seismic zones in North China, at least 3° × 3° in Southwest and Northwest China, and the time period should be as long as possible.

Dynamics of Social Group Competition: Modeling the Decline of Religious Affiliation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abrams, Daniel M.; Yaple, Haley A.; Wiener, Richard J.

2011-08-01

When social groups compete for members, the resulting dynamics may be understandable with mathematical models. We demonstrate that a simple ordinary differential equation (ODE) model is a good fit for religious shift by comparing it to a new international data set tracking religious nonaffiliation. We then generalize the model to include the possibility of nontrivial social interaction networks and examine the limiting case of a continuous system. Analytical and numerical predictions of this generalized system, which is robust to polarizing perturbations, match those of the original ODE model and justify its agreement with real-world data. The resulting predictions highlight possible causes of social shift and suggest future lines of research in both physics and sociology.

Constraining the thermal conditions of impact environments through integrated low-temperature thermochronometry and numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, N. M.; Marchi, S.; Mojzsis, S. J.; Flowers, R. M.; Metcalf, J. R.; Bottke, W. F., Jr.

2017-12-01

Impacts have a significant physical and chemical influence on the surface conditions of a planet. The cratering record is used to understand a wide array of impact processes, such as the evolution of the impact flux through time. However, the relationship between impactor size and a resulting impact crater remains controversial (e.g., Bottke et al., 2016). Likewise, small variations in the impact velocity are known to significantly affect the thermal-mechanical disturbances in the aftermath of a collision. Development of more robust numerical models for impact cratering has implications for how we evaluate the disruptive capabilities of impact events, including the extent and duration of thermal anomalies, the volume of ejected material, and the resulting landscape of impacted environments. To address uncertainties in crater scaling relationships, we present an approach and methodology that integrates numerical modeling of the thermal evolution of terrestrial impact craters with low-temperature, (U-Th)/He thermochronometry. The approach uses time-temperature (t-T) paths of crust within an impact crater, generated from numerical simulations of an impact. These t-T paths are then used in forward models to predict the resetting behavior of (U-Th)/He ages in the mineral chronometers apatite and zircon. Differences between the predicted and measured (U-Th)/He ages from a modeled terrestrial impact crater can then be used to evaluate parameters in the original numerical simulations, and refine the crater scaling relationships. We expect our methodology to additionally inform our interpretation of impact products, such as lunar impact breccias and meteorites, providing robust constraints on their thermal histories. In addition, the method is ideal for sample return mission planning - robust "prediction" of ages we expect from a given impact environment enhances our ability to target sampling sites on the Moon, Mars or other solar system bodies where impacts have strongly shaped the surface. Bottke, W.F., Vokrouhlicky, D., Ghent, B., et al. (2016). 47th LPSC, Abstract #2036.

Increase of Breakthrough Pressure of Cotton Fabric by Fluoropolymer/Fluoroposs Treatment

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-29

obtaining superhydrophobic and superolcophobic textured surfaces. Geometrical parameters based on these textures have been developed to model predicted...contact angles with liquids of varying surfaces tensions. One way of determining the robustness of the superhydrophobic state is to study the

Demonstrating the improvement of predictive maturity of a computational model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hemez, Francois M; Unal, Cetin; Atamturktur, Huriye S

2010-01-01

We demonstrate an improvement of predictive capability brought to a non-linear material model using a combination of test data, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and calibration. A model that captures increasingly complicated phenomena, such as plasticity, temperature and strain rate effects, is analyzed. Predictive maturity is defined, here, as the accuracy of the model to predict multiple Hopkinson bar experiments. A statistical discrepancy quantifies the systematic disagreement (bias) between measurements and predictions. Our hypothesis is that improving the predictive capability of a model should translate into better agreement between measurements and predictions. This agreement, in turn, should lead to a smallermore » discrepancy. We have recently proposed to use discrepancy and coverage, that is, the extent to which the physical experiments used for calibration populate the regime of applicability of the model, as basis to define a Predictive Maturity Index (PMI). It was shown that predictive maturity could be improved when additional physical tests are made available to increase coverage of the regime of applicability. This contribution illustrates how the PMI changes as 'better' physics are implemented in the model. The application is the non-linear Preston-Tonks-Wallace (PTW) strength model applied to Beryllium metal. We demonstrate that our framework tracks the evolution of maturity of the PTW model. Robustness of the PMI with respect to the selection of coefficients needed in its definition is also studied.« less

GlobalSoilMap France: High-resolution spatial modelling the soils of France up to two meter depth.

PubMed

Mulder, V L; Lacoste, M; Richer-de-Forges, A C; Arrouays, D

2016-12-15

This work presents the first GlobalSoilMap (GSM) products for France. We developed an automatic procedure for mapping the primary soil properties (clay, silt, sand, coarse elements, pH, soil organic carbon (SOC), cation exchange capacity (CEC) and soil depth). The procedure employed a data-mining technique and a straightforward method for estimating the 90% confidence intervals (CIs). The most accurate models were obtained for pH, sand and silt. Next, CEC, clay and SOC were found reasonably accurate predicted. Coarse elements and soil depth were the least accurate of all models. Overall, all models were considered robust; important indicators for this were 1) the small difference in model diagnostics between the calibration and cross-validation set, 2) the unbiased mean predictions, 3) the smaller spatial structure of the prediction residuals in comparison to the observations and 4) the similar performance compared to other developed GlobalSoilMap products. Nevertheless, the confidence intervals (CIs) were rather wide for all soil properties. The median predictions became less reliable with increasing depth, as indicated by the increase of CIs with depth. In addition, model accuracy and the corresponding CIs varied depending on the soil variable of interest, soil depth and geographic location. These findings indicated that the CIs are as informative as the model diagnostics. In conclusion, the presented method resulted in reasonably accurate predictions for the majority of the soil properties. End users can employ the products for different purposes, as was demonstrated with some practical examples. The mapping routine is flexible for cloud-computing and provides ample opportunity to be further developed when desired by its users. This allows regional and international GSM partners with fewer resources to develop their own products or, otherwise, to improve the current routine and work together towards a robust high-resolution digital soil map of the world. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a core Clostridium thermocellum kinetic metabolic model consistent with multiple genetic perturbations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dash, Satyakam; Khodayari, Ali; Zhou, Jilai

Background. Clostridium thermocellum is a Gram-positive anaerobe with the ability to hydrolyze and metabolize cellulose into biofuels such as ethanol, making it an attractive candidate for consolidated bioprocessing (CBP). At present, metabolic engineering in C. thermocellum is hindered due to the incomplete description of its metabolic repertoire and regulation within a predictive metabolic model. Genome-scale metabolic (GSM) models augmented with kinetic models of metabolism have been shown to be effective at recapitulating perturbed metabolic phenotypes. Results. In this effort, we first update a second-generation genome-scale metabolic model (iCth446) for C. thermocellum by correcting cofactor dependencies, restoring elemental and charge balances,more » and updating GAM and NGAM values to improve phenotype predictions. The iCth446 model is next used as a scaffold to develop a core kinetic model (k-ctherm118) of the C. thermocellum central metabolism using the Ensemble Modeling (EM) paradigm. Model parameterization is carried out by simultaneously imposing fermentation yield data in lactate, malate, acetate, and hydrogen production pathways for 19 measured metabolites spanning a library of 19 distinct single and multiple gene knockout mutants along with 18 intracellular metabolite concentration data for a Δgldh mutant and ten experimentally measured Michaelis–Menten kinetic parameters. Conclusions. The k-ctherm118 model captures significant metabolic changes caused by (1) nitrogen limitation leading to increased yields for lactate, pyruvate, and amino acids, and (2) ethanol stress causing an increase in intracellular sugar phosphate concentrations (~1.5-fold) due to upregulation of cofactor pools. Robustness analysis of k-ctherm118 alludes to the presence of a secondary activity of ketol-acid reductoisomerase and possible regulation by valine and/or leucine pool levels. In addition, cross-validation and robustness analysis allude to missing elements in k-ctherm118 and suggest additional experiments to improve kinetic model prediction fidelity. Overall, the study quantitatively assesses the advantages of EM-based kinetic modeling towards improved prediction of C. thermocellum metabolism and develops a predictive kinetic model which can be used to design biofuel-overproducing strains.« less

Development of a core Clostridium thermocellum kinetic metabolic model consistent with multiple genetic perturbations

DOE PAGES

Dash, Satyakam; Khodayari, Ali; Zhou, Jilai; ...

2017-05-02

Background. Clostridium thermocellum is a Gram-positive anaerobe with the ability to hydrolyze and metabolize cellulose into biofuels such as ethanol, making it an attractive candidate for consolidated bioprocessing (CBP). At present, metabolic engineering in C. thermocellum is hindered due to the incomplete description of its metabolic repertoire and regulation within a predictive metabolic model. Genome-scale metabolic (GSM) models augmented with kinetic models of metabolism have been shown to be effective at recapitulating perturbed metabolic phenotypes. Results. In this effort, we first update a second-generation genome-scale metabolic model (iCth446) for C. thermocellum by correcting cofactor dependencies, restoring elemental and charge balances,more » and updating GAM and NGAM values to improve phenotype predictions. The iCth446 model is next used as a scaffold to develop a core kinetic model (k-ctherm118) of the C. thermocellum central metabolism using the Ensemble Modeling (EM) paradigm. Model parameterization is carried out by simultaneously imposing fermentation yield data in lactate, malate, acetate, and hydrogen production pathways for 19 measured metabolites spanning a library of 19 distinct single and multiple gene knockout mutants along with 18 intracellular metabolite concentration data for a Δgldh mutant and ten experimentally measured Michaelis–Menten kinetic parameters. Conclusions. The k-ctherm118 model captures significant metabolic changes caused by (1) nitrogen limitation leading to increased yields for lactate, pyruvate, and amino acids, and (2) ethanol stress causing an increase in intracellular sugar phosphate concentrations (~1.5-fold) due to upregulation of cofactor pools. Robustness analysis of k-ctherm118 alludes to the presence of a secondary activity of ketol-acid reductoisomerase and possible regulation by valine and/or leucine pool levels. In addition, cross-validation and robustness analysis allude to missing elements in k-ctherm118 and suggest additional experiments to improve kinetic model prediction fidelity. Overall, the study quantitatively assesses the advantages of EM-based kinetic modeling towards improved prediction of C. thermocellum metabolism and develops a predictive kinetic model which can be used to design biofuel-overproducing strains.« less

Plasticity of genetic interactions in metabolic networks of yeast.

PubMed

Harrison, Richard; Papp, Balázs; Pál, Csaba; Oliver, Stephen G; Delneri, Daniela

2007-02-13

Why are most genes dispensable? The impact of gene deletions may depend on the environment (plasticity), the presence of compensatory mechanisms (mutational robustness), or both. Here, we analyze the interaction between these two forces by exploring the condition-dependence of synthetic genetic interactions that define redundant functions and alternative pathways. We performed systems-level flux balance analysis of the yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) metabolic network to identify genetic interactions and then tested the model's predictions with in vivo gene-deletion studies. We found that the majority of synthetic genetic interactions are restricted to certain environmental conditions, partly because of the lack of compensation under some (but not all) nutrient conditions. Moreover, the phylogenetic cooccurrence of synthetically interacting pairs is not significantly different from random expectation. These findings suggest that these gene pairs have at least partially independent functions, and, hence, compensation is only a byproduct of their evolutionary history. Experimental analyses that used multiple gene deletion strains not only confirmed predictions of the model but also showed that investigation of false predictions may both improve functional annotation within the model and also lead to the discovery of higher-order genetic interactions. Our work supports the view that functional redundancy may be more apparent than real, and it offers a unified framework for the evolution of environmental adaptation and mutational robustness.

(Q)SARs to predict environmental toxicities: current status and future needs.

PubMed

Cronin, Mark T D

2017-03-22

The current state of the art of (Quantitative) Structure-Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs) to predict environmental toxicity is assessed along with recommendations to develop these models further. The acute toxicity of compounds acting by the non-polar narcotic mechanism of action can be well predicted, however other approaches, including read-across, may be required for compounds acting by specific mechanisms of action. The chronic toxicity of compounds to environmental species is more difficult to predict from (Q)SARs, with robust data sets and more mechanistic information required. In addition, the toxicity of mixtures is little addressed by (Q)SAR approaches. Developments in environmental toxicology including Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) and omics responses should be utilised to develop better, more mechanistically relevant, (Q)SAR models.

CALiPER Report 20.3: Robustness of LED PAR38 Lamps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Poplawski, Michael E.; Royer, Michael P.; Brown, Charles C.

2014-12-01

Three samples of 40 of the Series 20 PAR38 lamps underwent multi-stress testing, whereby samples were subjected to increasing levels of simultaneous thermal, humidity, electrical, and vibrational stress. The results do not explicitly predict expected lifetime or reliability, but they can be compared with one another, as well as with benchmark conventional products, to assess the relative robustness of the product designs. On average, the 32 LED lamp models tested were substantially more robust than the conventional benchmark lamps. As with other performance attributes, however, there was great variability in the robustness and design maturity of the LED lamps. Severalmore » LED lamp samples failed within the first one or two levels of the ten-level stress plan, while all three samples of some lamp models completed all ten levels. One potential area of improvement is design maturity, given that more than 25% of the lamp models demonstrated a difference in failure level for the three samples that was greater than or equal to the maximum for the benchmarks. At the same time, the fact that nearly 75% of the lamp models exhibited better design maturity than the benchmarks is noteworthy, given the relative stage of development for the technology.« less

A Hybrid Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Kernel Extreme Learning Machine.

PubMed

Shang, Qiang; Lin, Ciyun; Yang, Zhaosheng; Bing, Qichun; Zhou, Xiyang

2016-01-01

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most important issues in the field of intelligent transport system (ITS). Because of the uncertainty and nonlinearity, short-term traffic flow prediction is a challenging task. In order to improve the accuracy of short-time traffic flow prediction, a hybrid model (SSA-KELM) is proposed based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM). SSA is used to filter out the noise of traffic flow time series. Then, the filtered traffic flow data is used to train KELM model, the optimal input form of the proposed model is determined by phase space reconstruction, and parameters of the model are optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA). Finally, case validation is carried out using the measured data of an expressway in Xiamen, China. And the SSA-KELM model is compared with several well-known prediction models, including support vector machine, extreme learning machine, and single KLEM model. The experimental results demonstrate that performance of the proposed model is superior to that of the comparison models. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed model is more robust.

A Hybrid Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Kernel Extreme Learning Machine

PubMed Central

Lin, Ciyun; Yang, Zhaosheng; Bing, Qichun; Zhou, Xiyang

2016-01-01

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most important issues in the field of intelligent transport system (ITS). Because of the uncertainty and nonlinearity, short-term traffic flow prediction is a challenging task. In order to improve the accuracy of short-time traffic flow prediction, a hybrid model (SSA-KELM) is proposed based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM). SSA is used to filter out the noise of traffic flow time series. Then, the filtered traffic flow data is used to train KELM model, the optimal input form of the proposed model is determined by phase space reconstruction, and parameters of the model are optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA). Finally, case validation is carried out using the measured data of an expressway in Xiamen, China. And the SSA-KELM model is compared with several well-known prediction models, including support vector machine, extreme learning machine, and single KLEM model. The experimental results demonstrate that performance of the proposed model is superior to that of the comparison models. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed model is more robust. PMID:27551829

QSAR models for predicting octanol/water and organic carbon/water partition coefficients of polychlorinated biphenyls.

PubMed

Yu, S; Gao, S; Gan, Y; Zhang, Y; Ruan, X; Wang, Y; Yang, L; Shi, J

2016-04-01

Quantitative structure-property relationship modelling can be a valuable alternative method to replace or reduce experimental testing. In particular, some endpoints such as octanol-water (KOW) and organic carbon-water (KOC) partition coefficients of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are easier to predict and various models have been already developed. In this paper, two different methods, which are multiple linear regression based on the descriptors generated using Dragon software and hologram quantitative structure-activity relationships, were employed to predict suspended particulate matter (SPM) derived log KOC and generator column, shake flask and slow stirring method derived log KOW values of 209 PCBs. The predictive ability of the derived models was validated using a test set. The performances of all these models were compared with EPI Suite™ software. The results indicated that the proposed models were robust and satisfactory, and could provide feasible and promising tools for the rapid assessment of the SPM derived log KOC and generator column, shake flask and slow stirring method derived log KOW values of PCBs.

VHSIC/VHSIC-Like Reliability Prediction Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-10-01

prediction would require ’ kowledge of event statistics as well as device robustness. Ii1 Additionally, although this is primarily a theoretical, bottom...Degradation in Section 5.3 P = Power PDIP = Plastic DIP P(f) = Probability of Failure due to EOS or ESD P(flc) = Probability of Failure given Contact from an...the results of those stresses: Device Stress Part Number Power Dissipation Manufacturer Test Type Part Description Junction Teniperatune Package Type

Geostatistical Prediction of Microbial Water Quality Throughout a Stream Network Using Meteorology, Land Cover, and Spatiotemporal Autocorrelation.

PubMed

Holcomb, David A; Messier, Kyle P; Serre, Marc L; Rowny, Jakob G; Stewart, Jill R

2018-06-25

Predictive modeling is promising as an inexpensive tool to assess water quality. We developed geostatistical predictive models of microbial water quality that empirically modeled spatiotemporal autocorrelation in measured fecal coliform (FC) bacteria concentrations to improve prediction. We compared five geostatistical models featuring different autocorrelation structures, fit to 676 observations from 19 locations in North Carolina's Jordan Lake watershed using meteorological and land cover predictor variables. Though stream distance metrics (with and without flow-weighting) failed to improve prediction over the Euclidean distance metric, incorporating temporal autocorrelation substantially improved prediction over the space-only models. We predicted FC throughout the stream network daily for one year, designating locations "impaired", "unimpaired", or "unassessed" if the probability of exceeding the state standard was ≥90%, ≤10%, or >10% but <90%, respectively. We could assign impairment status to more of the stream network on days any FC were measured, suggesting frequent sample-based monitoring remains necessary, though implementing spatiotemporal predictive models may reduce the number of concurrent sampling locations required to adequately assess water quality. Together, these results suggest that prioritizing sampling at different times and conditions using geographically sparse monitoring networks is adequate to build robust and informative geostatistical models of water quality impairment.

Mining manufacturing data for discovery of high productivity process characteristics.

PubMed

Charaniya, Salim; Le, Huong; Rangwala, Huzefa; Mills, Keri; Johnson, Kevin; Karypis, George; Hu, Wei-Shou

2010-06-01

Modern manufacturing facilities for bioproducts are highly automated with advanced process monitoring and data archiving systems. The time dynamics of hundreds of process parameters and outcome variables over a large number of production runs are archived in the data warehouse. This vast amount of data is a vital resource to comprehend the complex characteristics of bioprocesses and enhance production robustness. Cell culture process data from 108 'trains' comprising production as well as inoculum bioreactors from Genentech's manufacturing facility were investigated. Each run constitutes over one-hundred on-line and off-line temporal parameters. A kernel-based approach combined with a maximum margin-based support vector regression algorithm was used to integrate all the process parameters and develop predictive models for a key cell culture performance parameter. The model was also used to identify and rank process parameters according to their relevance in predicting process outcome. Evaluation of cell culture stage-specific models indicates that production performance can be reliably predicted days prior to harvest. Strong associations between several temporal parameters at various manufacturing stages and final process outcome were uncovered. This model-based data mining represents an important step forward in establishing a process data-driven knowledge discovery in bioprocesses. Implementation of this methodology on the manufacturing floor can facilitate a real-time decision making process and thereby improve the robustness of large scale bioprocesses. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New methods in hydrologic modeling and decision support for culvert flood risk under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.; Rees, P. S.

2015-12-01

Assessing culvert flood vulnerability under climate change poses an unusual combination of challenges. We seek a robust method of planning for an uncertain future, and therefore must consider a wide range of plausible future conditions. Culverts in our case study area, northwestern Massachusetts, USA, are predominantly found in small, ungaged basins. The need to predict flows both at numerous sites and under numerous plausible climate conditions requires a statistical model with low data and computational requirements. We present a statistical streamflow model that is driven by precipitation and temperature, allowing us to predict flows without reliance on reference gages of observed flows. The hydrological analysis is used to determine each culvert's risk of failure under current conditions. We also explore the hydrological response to a range of plausible future climate conditions. These results are used to determine the tolerance of each culvert to future increases in precipitation. In a decision support context, current flood risk as well as tolerance to potential climate changes are used to provide a robust assessment and prioritization for culvert replacements.

Mixed H2/H∞ distributed robust model predictive control for polytopic uncertain systems subject to actuator saturation and missing measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yan; Fang, Xiaosheng; Diao, Qingda

2016-03-01

In this paper, we discuss the mixed H2/H∞ distributed robust model predictive control problem for polytopic uncertain systems subject to randomly occurring actuator saturation and packet loss. The global system is decomposed into several subsystems, and all the subsystems are connected by a fixed topology network, which is the definition for the packet loss among the subsystems. To better use the successfully transmitted information via Internet, both the phenomena of actuator saturation and packet loss resulting from the limitation of the communication bandwidth are taken into consideration. A novel distributed controller model is established to account for the actuator saturation and packet loss in a unified representation by using two sets of Bernoulli distributed white sequences with known conditional probabilities. With the nonlinear feedback control law represented by the convex hull of a group of linear feedback laws, the distributed controllers for subsystems are obtained by solving an linear matrix inequality (LMI) optimisation problem. Finally, numerical studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed techniques.

Modeling and sliding mode predictive control of the ultra-supercritical boiler-turbine system with uncertainties and input constraints.

PubMed

Tian, Zhen; Yuan, Jingqi; Zhang, Xiang; Kong, Lei; Wang, Jingcheng

2018-05-01

The coordinated control system (CCS) serves as an important role in load regulation, efficiency optimization and pollutant reduction for coal-fired power plants. The CCS faces with tough challenges, such as the wide-range load variation, various uncertainties and constraints. This paper aims to improve the load tacking ability and robustness for boiler-turbine units under wide-range operation. To capture the key dynamics of the ultra-supercritical boiler-turbine system, a nonlinear control-oriented model is developed based on mechanism analysis and model reduction techniques, which is validated with the history operation data of a real 1000 MW unit. To simultaneously address the issues of uncertainties and input constraints, a discrete-time sliding mode predictive controller (SMPC) is designed with the dual-mode control law. Moreover, the input-to-state stability and robustness of the closed-loop system are proved. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme, which achieves good tracking performance, disturbance rejection ability and compatibility to input constraints. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-throughput prediction of eucalypt lignin syringyl/guaiacyl content using multivariate analysis: a comparison between mid-infrared, near-infrared, and Raman spectroscopies for model development

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background In order to rapidly and efficiently screen potential biofuel feedstock candidates for quintessential traits, robust high-throughput analytical techniques must be developed and honed. The traditional methods of measuring lignin syringyl/guaiacyl (S/G) ratio can be laborious, involve hazardous reagents, and/or be destructive. Vibrational spectroscopy can furnish high-throughput instrumentation without the limitations of the traditional techniques. Spectral data from mid-infrared, near-infrared, and Raman spectroscopies was combined with S/G ratios, obtained using pyrolysis molecular beam mass spectrometry, from 245 different eucalypt and Acacia trees across 17 species. Iterations of spectral processing allowed the assembly of robust predictive models using partial least squares (PLS). Results The PLS models were rigorously evaluated using three different randomly generated calibration and validation sets for each spectral processing approach. Root mean standard errors of prediction for validation sets were lowest for models comprised of Raman (0.13 to 0.16) and mid-infrared (0.13 to 0.15) spectral data, while near-infrared spectroscopy led to more erroneous predictions (0.18 to 0.21). Correlation coefficients (r) for the validation sets followed a similar pattern: Raman (0.89 to 0.91), mid-infrared (0.87 to 0.91), and near-infrared (0.79 to 0.82). These statistics signify that Raman and mid-infrared spectroscopy led to the most accurate predictions of S/G ratio in a diverse consortium of feedstocks. Conclusion Eucalypts present an attractive option for biofuel and biochemical production. Given the assortment of over 900 different species of Eucalyptus and Corymbia, in addition to various species of Acacia, it is necessary to isolate those possessing ideal biofuel traits. This research has demonstrated the validity of vibrational spectroscopy to efficiently partition different potential biofuel feedstocks according to lignin S/G ratio, significantly reducing experiment and analysis time and expense while providing non-destructive, accurate, global, predictive models encompassing a diverse array of feedstocks. PMID:24955114

Review and evaluation of performance measures for survival prediction models in external validation settings.

PubMed

Rahman, M Shafiqur; Ambler, Gareth; Choodari-Oskooei, Babak; Omar, Rumana Z

2017-04-18

When developing a prediction model for survival data it is essential to validate its performance in external validation settings using appropriate performance measures. Although a number of such measures have been proposed, there is only limited guidance regarding their use in the context of model validation. This paper reviewed and evaluated a wide range of performance measures to provide some guidelines for their use in practice. An extensive simulation study based on two clinical datasets was conducted to investigate the performance of the measures in external validation settings. Measures were selected from categories that assess the overall performance, discrimination and calibration of a survival prediction model. Some of these have been modified to allow their use with validation data, and a case study is provided to describe how these measures can be estimated in practice. The measures were evaluated with respect to their robustness to censoring and ease of interpretation. All measures are implemented, or are straightforward to implement, in statistical software. Most of the performance measures were reasonably robust to moderate levels of censoring. One exception was Harrell's concordance measure which tended to increase as censoring increased. We recommend that Uno's concordance measure is used to quantify concordance when there are moderate levels of censoring. Alternatively, Gönen and Heller's measure could be considered, especially if censoring is very high, but we suggest that the prediction model is re-calibrated first. We also recommend that Royston's D is routinely reported to assess discrimination since it has an appealing interpretation. The calibration slope is useful for both internal and external validation settings and recommended to report routinely. Our recommendation would be to use any of the predictive accuracy measures and provide the corresponding predictive accuracy curves. In addition, we recommend to investigate the characteristics of the validation data such as the level of censoring and the distribution of the prognostic index derived in the validation setting before choosing the performance measures.

Using robust Bayesian network to estimate the residuals of fluoroquinolone antibiotic in soil.

PubMed

Li, Xuewen; Xie, Yunfeng; Li, Lianfa; Yang, Xunfeng; Wang, Ning; Wang, Jinfeng

2015-11-01

Prediction of antibiotic pollution and its consequences is difficult, due to the uncertainties and complexities associated with multiple related factors. This article employed domain knowledge and spatial data to construct a Bayesian network (BN) model to assess fluoroquinolone antibiotic (FQs) pollution in the soil of an intensive vegetable cultivation area. The results show: (1) The relationships between FQs pollution and contributory factors: Three factors (cultivation methods, crop rotations, and chicken manure types) were consistently identified as predictors in the topological structures of three FQs, indicating their importance in FQs pollution; deduced with domain knowledge, the cultivation methods are determined by the crop rotations, which require different nutrients (derived from the manure) according to different plant biomass. (2) The performance of BN model: The integrative robust Bayesian network model achieved the highest detection probability (pd) of high-risk and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area, since it incorporates domain knowledge and model uncertainty. Our encouraging findings have implications for the use of BN as a robust approach to assessment of FQs pollution and for informing decisions on appropriate remedial measures.

Predicting intensity ranks of peptide fragment ions.

PubMed

Frank, Ari M

2009-05-01

Accurate modeling of peptide fragmentation is necessary for the development of robust scoring functions for peptide-spectrum matches, which are the cornerstone of MS/MS-based identification algorithms. Unfortunately, peptide fragmentation is a complex process that can involve several competing chemical pathways, which makes it difficult to develop generative probabilistic models that describe it accurately. However, the vast amounts of MS/MS data being generated now make it possible to use data-driven machine learning methods to develop discriminative ranking-based models that predict the intensity ranks of a peptide's fragment ions. We use simple sequence-based features that get combined by a boosting algorithm into models that make peak rank predictions with high accuracy. In an accompanying manuscript, we demonstrate how these prediction models are used to significantly improve the performance of peptide identification algorithms. The models can also be useful in the design of optimal multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) transitions, in cases where there is insufficient experimental data to guide the peak selection process. The prediction algorithm can also be run independently through PepNovo+, which is available for download from http://bix.ucsd.edu/Software/PepNovo.html.

Predicting Intensity Ranks of Peptide Fragment Ions

PubMed Central

Frank, Ari M.

2009-01-01

Accurate modeling of peptide fragmentation is necessary for the development of robust scoring functions for peptide-spectrum matches, which are the cornerstone of MS/MS-based identification algorithms. Unfortunately, peptide fragmentation is a complex process that can involve several competing chemical pathways, which makes it difficult to develop generative probabilistic models that describe it accurately. However, the vast amounts of MS/MS data being generated now make it possible to use data-driven machine learning methods to develop discriminative ranking-based models that predict the intensity ranks of a peptide's fragment ions. We use simple sequence-based features that get combined by a boosting algorithm in to models that make peak rank predictions with high accuracy. In an accompanying manuscript, we demonstrate how these prediction models are used to significantly improve the performance of peptide identification algorithms. The models can also be useful in the design of optimal MRM transitions, in cases where there is insufficient experimental data to guide the peak selection process. The prediction algorithm can also be run independently through PepNovo+, which is available for download from http://bix.ucsd.edu/Software/PepNovo.html. PMID:19256476

Comparison of five modelling techniques to predict the spatial distribution and abundance of seabirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connell, Allan F.; Gardner, Beth; Oppel, Steffen; Meirinho, Ana; Ramírez, Iván; Miller, Peter I.; Louzao, Maite

2012-01-01

Knowledge about the spatial distribution of seabirds at sea is important for conservation. During marine conservation planning, logistical constraints preclude seabird surveys covering the complete area of interest and spatial distribution of seabirds is frequently inferred from predictive statistical models. Increasingly complex models are available to relate the distribution and abundance of pelagic seabirds to environmental variables, but a comparison of their usefulness for delineating protected areas for seabirds is lacking. Here we compare the performance of five modelling techniques (generalised linear models, generalised additive models, Random Forest, boosted regression trees, and maximum entropy) to predict the distribution of Balearic Shearwaters (Puffinus mauretanicus) along the coast of the western Iberian Peninsula. We used ship transect data from 2004 to 2009 and 13 environmental variables to predict occurrence and density, and evaluated predictive performance of all models using spatially segregated test data. Predicted distribution varied among the different models, although predictive performance varied little. An ensemble prediction that combined results from all five techniques was robust and confirmed the existence of marine important bird areas for Balearic Shearwaters in Portugal and Spain. Our predictions suggested additional areas that would be of high priority for conservation and could be proposed as protected areas. Abundance data were extremely difficult to predict, and none of five modelling techniques provided a reliable prediction of spatial patterns. We advocate the use of ensemble modelling that combines the output of several methods to predict the spatial distribution of seabirds, and use these predictions to target separate surveys assessing the abundance of seabirds in areas of regular use.

Deriving leaf mass per area (LMA) from foliar reflectance across a variety of plant species using continuous wavelet analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Tao; Rivard, Benoit; Sánchez-Azofeifa, Arturo G.; Féret, Jean-Baptiste; Jacquemoud, Stéphane; Ustin, Susan L.

2014-01-01

Leaf mass per area (LMA), the ratio of leaf dry mass to leaf area, is a trait of central importance to the understanding of plant light capture and carbon gain. It can be estimated from leaf reflectance spectroscopy in the infrared region, by making use of information about the absorption features of dry matter. This study reports on the application of continuous wavelet analysis (CWA) to the estimation of LMA across a wide range of plant species. We compiled a large database of leaf reflectance spectra acquired within the framework of three independent measurement campaigns (ANGERS, LOPEX and PANAMA) and generated a simulated database using the PROSPECT leaf optical properties model. CWA was applied to the measured and simulated databases to extract wavelet features that correlate with LMA. These features were assessed in terms of predictive capability and robustness while transferring predictive models from the simulated database to the measured database. The assessment was also conducted with two existing spectral indices, namely the Normalized Dry Matter Index (NDMI) and the Normalized Difference index for LMA (NDLMA). Five common wavelet features were determined from the two databases, which showed significant correlations with LMA (R2: 0.51-0.82, p < 0.0001). The best robustness (R2 = 0.74, RMSE = 18.97 g/m2 and Bias = 0.12 g/m2) was obtained using a combination of two low-scale features (1639 nm, scale 4) and (2133 nm, scale 5), the first being predominantly important. The transferability of the wavelet-based predictive model to the whole measured database was either better than or comparable to those based on spectral indices. Additionally, only the wavelet-based model showed consistent predictive capabilities among the three measured data sets. In comparison, the models based on spectral indices were sensitive to site-specific data sets. Integrating the NDLMA spectral index and the two robust wavelet features improved the LMA prediction. One of the bands used by this spectral index, 1368 nm, was located in a strong atmospheric water absorption region and replacing it with the next available band (1340 nm) led to lower predictive accuracies. However, the two wavelet features were not affected by data quality in the atmospheric absorption regions and therefore showed potential for canopy-level investigations. The wavelet approach provides a different perspective into spectral responses to LMA variation than the traditional spectral indices and holds greater promise for implementation with airborne or spaceborne imaging spectroscopy data for mapping canopy foliar dry biomass.

Prediction of chemo-response in serous ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Gonzalez Bosquet, Jesus; Newtson, Andreea M; Chung, Rebecca K; Thiel, Kristina W; Ginader, Timothy; Goodheart, Michael J; Leslie, Kimberly K; Smith, Brian J

2016-10-19

Nearly one-third of serous ovarian cancer (OVCA) patients will not respond to initial treatment with surgery and chemotherapy and die within one year of diagnosis. If patients who are unlikely to respond to current standard therapy can be identified up front, enhanced tumor analyses and treatment regimens could potentially be offered. Using the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) serous OVCA database, we previously identified a robust molecular signature of 422-genes associated with chemo-response. Our objective was to test whether this signature is an accurate and sensitive predictor of chemo-response in serous OVCA. We first constructed prediction models to predict chemo-response using our previously described 422-gene signature that was associated with response to treatment in serous OVCA. Performance of all prediction models were measured with area under the curves (AUCs, a measure of the model's accuracy) and their respective confidence intervals (CIs). To optimize the prediction process, we determined which elements of the signature most contributed to chemo-response prediction. All prediction models were replicated and validated using six publicly available independent gene expression datasets. The 422-gene signature prediction models predicted chemo-response with AUCs of ~70 %. Optimization of prediction models identified the 34 most important genes in chemo-response prediction. These 34-gene models had improved performance, with AUCs approaching 80 %. Both 422-gene and 34-gene prediction models were replicated and validated in six independent datasets. These prediction models serve as the foundation for the future development and implementation of a diagnostic tool to predict response to chemotherapy for serous OVCA patients.

A Practical, Robust Methodology for Acquiring New Observation Data Using Computationally Expensive Groundwater Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siade, Adam J.; Hall, Joel; Karelse, Robert N.

2017-11-01

Regional groundwater flow models play an important role in decision making regarding water resources; however, the uncertainty embedded in model parameters and model assumptions can significantly hinder the reliability of model predictions. One way to reduce this uncertainty is to collect new observation data from the field. However, determining where and when to obtain such data is not straightforward. There exist a number of data-worth and experimental design strategies developed for this purpose. However, these studies often ignore issues related to real-world groundwater models such as computational expense, existing observation data, high-parameter dimension, etc. In this study, we propose a methodology, based on existing methods and software, to efficiently conduct such analyses for large-scale, complex regional groundwater flow systems for which there is a wealth of available observation data. The method utilizes the well-established d-optimality criterion, and the minimax criterion for robust sampling strategies. The so-called Null-Space Monte Carlo method is used to reduce the computational burden associated with uncertainty quantification. And, a heuristic methodology, based on the concept of the greedy algorithm, is proposed for developing robust designs with subsets of the posterior parameter samples. The proposed methodology is tested on a synthetic regional groundwater model, and subsequently applied to an existing, complex, regional groundwater system in the Perth region of Western Australia. The results indicate that robust designs can be obtained efficiently, within reasonable computational resources, for making regional decisions regarding groundwater level sampling.

Dendrites Enable a Robust Mechanism for Neuronal Stimulus Selectivity.

PubMed

Cazé, Romain D; Jarvis, Sarah; Foust, Amanda J; Schultz, Simon R

2017-09-01

Hearing, vision, touch: underlying all of these senses is stimulus selectivity, a robust information processing operation in which cortical neurons respond more to some stimuli than to others. Previous models assume that these neurons receive the highest weighted input from an ensemble encoding the preferred stimulus, but dendrites enable other possibilities. Nonlinear dendritic processing can produce stimulus selectivity based on the spatial distribution of synapses, even if the total preferred stimulus weight does not exceed that of nonpreferred stimuli. Using a multi-subunit nonlinear model, we demonstrate that stimulus selectivity can arise from the spatial distribution of synapses. We propose this as a general mechanism for information processing by neurons possessing dendritic trees. Moreover, we show that this implementation of stimulus selectivity increases the neuron's robustness to synaptic and dendritic failure. Importantly, our model can maintain stimulus selectivity for a larger range of loss of synapses or dendrites than an equivalent linear model. We then use a layer 2/3 biophysical neuron model to show that our implementation is consistent with two recent experimental observations: (1) one can observe a mixture of selectivities in dendrites that can differ from the somatic selectivity, and (2) hyperpolarization can broaden somatic tuning without affecting dendritic tuning. Our model predicts that an initially nonselective neuron can become selective when depolarized. In addition to motivating new experiments, the model's increased robustness to synapses and dendrites loss provides a starting point for fault-resistant neuromorphic chip development.

Calibration of remotely sensed, coarse resolution NDVI to CO2 fluxes in a sagebrush–steppe ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wylie, Bruce K.; Johnson, Douglas A.; Laca, Emilio; Saliendra, Nicanor Z.; Gilmanov, Tagir G.; Reed, Bradley C.; Tieszen, Larry L.; Worstell, Bruce B.

2003-01-01

The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon flux can be partitioned into gross primary productivity (GPP) and respiration (R). The contribution of remote sensing and modeling holds the potential to predict these components and map them spatially and temporally. This has obvious utility to quantify carbon sink and source relationships and to identify improved land management strategies for optimizing carbon sequestration. The objective of our study was to evaluate prediction of 14-day average daytime CO2 fluxes (Fday) and nighttime CO2 fluxes (Rn) using remote sensing and other data. Fday and Rnwere measured with a Bowen ratio–energy balance (BREB) technique in a sagebrush (Artemisia spp.)–steppe ecosystem in northeast Idaho, USA, during 1996–1999. Micrometeorological variables aggregated across 14-day periods and time-integrated Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (iNDVI) were determined during four growing seasons (1996–1999) and used to predict Fday and Rn. We found that iNDVI was a strong predictor of Fday(R2=0.79, n=66, P<0.0001). Inclusion of evapotranspiration in the predictive equation led to improved predictions of Fday (R2=0.82, n=66, P<0.0001). Crossvalidation indicated that regression tree predictions of Fday were prone to overfitting and that linear regression models were more robust. Multiple regression and regression tree models predicted Rn quite well (R2=0.75–0.77, n=66) with the regression tree model being slightly more robust in crossvalidation. Temporal mapping of Fday and Rn is possible with these techniques and would allow the assessment of NEE in sagebrush–steppe ecosystems. Simulations of periodic Fday measurements, as might be provided by a mobile flux tower, indicated that such measurements could be used in combination with iNDVI to accurately predict Fday. These periodic measurements could maximize the utility of expensive flux towers for evaluating various carbon management strategies, carbon certification, and validation and calibration of carbon flux models.

Calibration of remotely sensed, coarse resolution NDVI to CO2 fluxes in a sagebrush-steppe ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wylie, B.K.; Johnson, D.A.; Laca, Emilio; Saliendra, Nicanor Z.; Gilmanov, T.G.; Reed, B.C.; Tieszen, L.L.; Worstell, B.B.

2003-01-01

The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon flux can be partitioned into gross primary productivity (GPP) and respiration (R). The contribution of remote sensing and modeling holds the potential to predict these components and map them spatially and temporally. This has obvious utility to quantify carbon sink and source relationships and to identify improved land management strategies for optimizing carbon sequestration. The objective of our study was to evaluate prediction of 14-day average daytime CO2 fluxes (Fday) and nighttime CO2 fluxes (Rn) using remote sensing and other data. Fday and Rn were measured with a Bowen ratio-energy balance (BREB) technique in a sagebrush (Artemisia spp.)-steppe ecosystem in northeast Idaho, USA, during 1996-1999. Micrometeorological variables aggregated across 14-day periods and time-integrated Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (iNDVI) were determined during four growing seasons (1996-1999) and used to predict Fday and Rn. We found that iNDVI was a strong predictor of Fday (R2 = 0.79, n = 66, P < 0.0001). Inclusion of evapotranspiration in the predictive equation led to improved predictions of Fday (R2= 0.82, n = 66, P < 0.0001). Crossvalidation indicated that regression tree predictions of Fday were prone to overfitting and that linear regression models were more robust. Multiple regression and regression tree models predicted Rn quite well (R2 = 0.75-0.77, n = 66) with the regression tree model being slightly more robust in crossvalidation. Temporal mapping of Fday and Rn is possible with these techniques and would allow the assessment of NEE in sagebrush-steppe ecosystems. Simulations of periodic Fday measurements, as might be provided by a mobile flux tower, indicated that such measurements could be used in combination with iNDVI to accurately predict Fday. These periodic measurements could maximize the utility of expensive flux towers for evaluating various carbon management strategies, carbon certification, and validation and calibration of carbon flux models. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Can personality traits and intelligence compensate for background disadvantage? Predicting status attainment in adulthood.

PubMed

Damian, Rodica Ioana; Su, Rong; Shanahan, Michael; Trautwein, Ulrich; Roberts, Brent W

2015-09-01

This study investigated the interplay of family background and individual differences, such as personality traits and intelligence (measured in a large U.S. representative sample of high school students; N = 81,000) in predicting educational attainment, annual income, and occupational prestige 11 years later. Specifically, we tested whether individual differences followed 1 of 3 patterns in relation to parental socioeconomic status (SES) when predicting attained status: (a) the independent effects hypothesis (i.e., individual differences predict attainments independent of parental SES level), (b) the resource substitution hypothesis (i.e., individual differences are stronger predictors of attainments at lower levels of parental SES), and (c) the Matthew effect hypothesis (i.e., "the rich get richer"; individual differences are stronger predictors of attainments at higher levels of parental SES). We found that personality traits and intelligence in adolescence predicted later attained status above and beyond parental SES. A standard deviation increase in individual differences translated to up to 8 additional months of education, $4,233 annually, and more prestigious occupations. Furthermore, although we did find some evidence for both the resource substitution and the Matthew effect hypotheses, the most robust pattern across all models supported the independent effects hypothesis. Intelligence was the exception, the interaction models being more robust. Finally, we found that although personality traits may help compensate for background disadvantage to a small extent, they do not usually lead to a "full catch-up" effect, unlike intelligence. This was the first longitudinal study of status attainment to test interactive models of individual differences and background factors. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Can Personality Traits and Intelligence Compensate for Background Disadvantage? Predicting Status Attainment in Adulthood

PubMed Central

Damian, Rodica Ioana; Su, Rong; Shanahan, Michael; Trautwein, Ulrich; Roberts, Brent W.

2014-01-01

This paper investigates the interplay of family background and individual differences, such as personality traits and intelligence (measured in a large US representative sample of high school students; N = 81,000) in predicting educational attainment, annual income, and occupational prestige eleven years later. Specifically, we tested whether individual differences followed one of three patterns in relation to parental SES when predicting attained status: (a) the independent effects hypothesis (i.e., individual differences predict attainments independent of parental SES level), (b) the resource substitution hypothesis (i.e., individual differences are stronger predictors of attainments at lower levels of parental SES), and (c) the Matthew effect hypothesis (i.e., “the rich get richer,” individual differences are stronger predictors of attainments at higher levels of parental SES). We found that personality traits and intelligence in adolescence predicted later attained status above and beyond parental SES. A standard deviation increase in individual differences translated to up to 8 additional months of education, $4,233 annually, and more prestigious occupations. Furthermore, although we did find some evidence for both the resource substitution and the Matthew effect hypotheses, the most robust pattern across all models supported the independent effects hypothesis. Intelligence was the exception, where interaction models were more robust. Finally, we found that although personality traits may help compensate for background disadvantage to a small extent, they do not usually lead to a “full catch up” effect, unlike intelligence. This was the first longitudinal study of status attainment to test interactive models of individual differences and background factors. PMID:25402679

ℓ p-Norm Multikernel Learning Approach for Stock Market Price Forecasting

PubMed Central

Shao, Xigao; Wu, Kun; Liao, Bifeng

2012-01-01

Linear multiple kernel learning model has been used for predicting financial time series. However, ℓ 1-norm multiple support vector regression is rarely observed to outperform trivial baselines in practical applications. To allow for robust kernel mixtures that generalize well, we adopt ℓ p-norm multiple kernel support vector regression (1 ≤ p < ∞) as a stock price prediction model. The optimization problem is decomposed into smaller subproblems, and the interleaved optimization strategy is employed to solve the regression model. The model is evaluated on forecasting the daily stock closing prices of Shanghai Stock Index in China. Experimental results show that our proposed model performs better than ℓ 1-norm multiple support vector regression model. PMID:23365561

Robust scoring functions for protein-ligand interactions with quantum chemical charge models.

PubMed

Wang, Jui-Chih; Lin, Jung-Hsin; Chen, Chung-Ming; Perryman, Alex L; Olson, Arthur J

2011-10-24

Ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression has been used widely for constructing the scoring functions for protein-ligand interactions. However, OLS is very sensitive to the existence of outliers, and models constructed using it are easily affected by the outliers or even the choice of the data set. On the other hand, determination of atomic charges is regarded as of central importance, because the electrostatic interaction is known to be a key contributing factor for biomolecular association. In the development of the AutoDock4 scoring function, only OLS was conducted, and the simple Gasteiger method was adopted. It is therefore of considerable interest to see whether more rigorous charge models could improve the statistical performance of the AutoDock4 scoring function. In this study, we have employed two well-established quantum chemical approaches, namely the restrained electrostatic potential (RESP) and the Austin-model 1-bond charge correction (AM1-BCC) methods, to obtain atomic partial charges, and we have compared how different charge models affect the performance of AutoDock4 scoring functions. In combination with robust regression analysis and outlier exclusion, our new protein-ligand free energy regression model with AM1-BCC charges for ligands and Amber99SB charges for proteins achieve lowest root-mean-squared error of 1.637 kcal/mol for the training set of 147 complexes and 2.176 kcal/mol for the external test set of 1427 complexes. The assessment for binding pose prediction with the 100 external decoy sets indicates very high success rate of 87% with the criteria of predicted root-mean-squared deviation of less than 2 Å. The success rates and statistical performance of our robust scoring functions are only weakly class-dependent (hydrophobic, hydrophilic, or mixed).

Merging Applicability Domains for in Silico Assessment of Chemical Mutagenicity

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-04

molecular fingerprints as descriptors for developing quantitative structure−activity relationship ( QSAR ) models and defining applicability domains with...used to define and quantify an applicability domain for either method. The importance of using applicability domains in QSAR modeling cannot be...domain from roughly 80% to 90%. These results indicated that the proposed QSAR protocol constituted a highly robust chemical mutagenicity prediction

The 32nd CDC: System identification using interval dynamic models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keel, L. H.; Lew, J. S.; Bhattacharyya, S. P.

1992-01-01

Motivated by the recent explosive development of results in the area of parametric robust control, a new technique to identify a family of uncertain systems is identified. The new technique takes the frequency domain input and output data obtained from experimental test signals and produces an 'interval transfer function' that contains the complete frequency domain behavior with respect to the test signals. This interval transfer function is one of the key concepts in the parametric robust control approach and identification with such an interval model allows one to predict the worst case performance and stability margins using recent results on interval systems. The algorithm is illustrated by applying it to an 18 bay Mini-Mast truss structure.

Estimation of water quality by UV/Vis spectrometry in the framework of treated wastewater reuse.

PubMed

Carré, Erwan; Pérot, Jean; Jauzein, Vincent; Lin, Liming; Lopez-Ferber, Miguel

2017-07-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the potential of ultraviolet/visible (UV/Vis) spectrometry as a complementary method for routine monitoring of reclaimed water production. Robustness of the models and compliance of their sensitivity with current quality limits are investigated. The following indicators are studied: total suspended solids (TSS), turbidity, chemical oxygen demand (COD) and nitrate. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) is used to find linear correlations between absorbances and indicators of interest. Artificial samples are made by simulating a sludge leak on the wastewater treatment plant and added to the original dataset, then divided into calibration and prediction datasets. The models are built on the calibration set, and then tested on the prediction set. The best models are developed with: PLSR for COD (R pred 2 = 0.80), TSS (R pred 2 = 0.86) and turbidity (R pred 2 = 0.96), and with a simple linear regression from absorbance at 208 nm (R pred 2 = 0.95) for nitrate concentration. The input of artificial data significantly enhances the robustness of the models. The sensitivity of the UV/Vis spectrometry monitoring system developed is compatible with quality requirements of reclaimed water production processes.

A Robust Bayesian Random Effects Model for Nonlinear Calibration Problems

PubMed Central

Fong, Y.; Wakefield, J.; De Rosa, S.; Frahm, N.

2013-01-01

Summary In the context of a bioassay or an immunoassay, calibration means fitting a curve, usually nonlinear, through the observations collected on a set of samples containing known concentrations of a target substance, and then using the fitted curve and observations collected on samples of interest to predict the concentrations of the target substance in these samples. Recent technological advances have greatly improved our ability to quantify minute amounts of substance from a tiny volume of biological sample. This has in turn led to a need to improve statistical methods for calibration. In this paper, we focus on developing calibration methods robust to dependent outliers. We introduce a novel normal mixture model with dependent error terms to model the experimental noise. In addition, we propose a re-parameterization of the five parameter logistic nonlinear regression model that allows us to better incorporate prior information. We examine the performance of our methods with simulation studies and show that they lead to a substantial increase in performance measured in terms of mean squared error of estimation and a measure of the average prediction accuracy. A real data example from the HIV Vaccine Trials Network Laboratory is used to illustrate the methods. PMID:22551415

Robust multiscale prediction of Po River discharge using a twofold AR-NN approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessio, Silvia; Taricco, Carla; Rubinetti, Sara; Zanchettin, Davide; Rubino, Angelo; Mancuso, Salvatore

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean area is among the regions most exposed to hydroclimatic changes, with a likely increase of frequency and duration of droughts in the last decades and potentially substantial future drying according to climate projections. However, significant decadal variability is often superposed or even dominates these long-term hydrological trend as observed, for instance, in North Italian precipitation and river discharge records. The capability to accurately predict such decadal changes is, therefore, of utmost environmental and social importance. In order to forecast short and noisy hydroclimatic time series, we apply a twofold statistical approach that we improved with respect to previous works [1]. Our prediction strategy consists in the application of two independent methods that use autoregressive models and feed-forward neural networks. Since all prediction methods work better on clean signals, the predictions are not performed directly on the series, but rather on each significant variability components extracted with Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). In this contribution, we will illustrate the multiscale prediction approach and its application to the case of decadal prediction of annual-average Po River discharges (Italy). The discharge record is available for the last 209 years and allows to work with both interannual and decadal time-scale components. Fifteen-year forecasts obtained with both methods robustly indicate a prominent dry period in the second half of the 2020s. We will discuss advantages and limitations of the proposed statistical approach in the light of the current capabilities of decadal climate prediction systems based on numerical climate models, toward an integrated dynamical and statistical approach for the interannual-to-decadal prediction of hydroclimate variability in medium-size river basins. [1] Alessio et. al., Natural variability and anthropogenic effects in a Central Mediterranean core, Clim. of the Past, 8, 831-839, 2012.

Multivariable Time Series Prediction for the Icing Process on Overhead Power Transmission Line

PubMed Central

Li, Peng; Zhao, Na; Zhou, Donghua; Cao, Min; Li, Jingjie; Shi, Xinling

2014-01-01

The design of monitoring and predictive alarm systems is necessary for successful overhead power transmission line icing. Given the characteristics of complexity, nonlinearity, and fitfulness in the line icing process, a model based on a multivariable time series is presented here to predict the icing load of a transmission line. In this model, the time effects of micrometeorology parameters for the icing process have been analyzed. The phase-space reconstruction theory and machine learning method were then applied to establish the prediction model, which fully utilized the history of multivariable time series data in local monitoring systems to represent the mapping relationship between icing load and micrometeorology factors. Relevant to the characteristic of fitfulness in line icing, the simulations were carried out during the same icing process or different process to test the model's prediction precision and robustness. According to the simulation results for the Tao-Luo-Xiong Transmission Line, this model demonstrates a good accuracy of prediction in different process, if the prediction length is less than two hours, and would be helpful for power grid departments when deciding to take action in advance to address potential icing disasters. PMID:25136653

The comparison of predictive scheduling algorithms for different sizes of job shop scheduling problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paprocka, I.; Kempa, W. M.; Grabowik, C.; Kalinowski, K.; Krenczyk, D.

2016-08-01

In the paper a survey of predictive and reactive scheduling methods is done in order to evaluate how the ability of prediction of reliability characteristics influences over robustness criteria. The most important reliability characteristics are: Mean Time to Failure, Mean Time of Repair. Survey analysis is done for a job shop scheduling problem. The paper answers the question: what method generates robust schedules in the case of a bottleneck failure occurrence before, at the beginning of planned maintenance actions or after planned maintenance actions? Efficiency of predictive schedules is evaluated using criteria: makespan, total tardiness, flow time, idle time. Efficiency of reactive schedules is evaluated using: solution robustness criterion and quality robustness criterion. This paper is the continuation of the research conducted in the paper [1], where the survey of predictive and reactive scheduling methods is done only for small size scheduling problems.

Mixed model approaches for diallel analysis based on a bio-model.

PubMed

Zhu, J; Weir, B S

1996-12-01

A MINQUE(1) procedure, which is minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) method with 1 for all the prior values, is suggested for estimating variance and covariance components in a bio-model for diallel crosses. Unbiasedness and efficiency of estimation were compared for MINQUE(1), restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and MINQUE theta which has parameter values for the prior values. MINQUE(1) is almost as efficient as MINQUE theta for unbiased estimation of genetic variance and covariance components. The bio-model is efficient and robust for estimating variance and covariance components for maternal and paternal effects as well as for nuclear effects. A procedure of adjusted unbiased prediction (AUP) is proposed for predicting random genetic effects in the bio-model. The jack-knife procedure is suggested for estimation of sampling variances of estimated variance and covariance components and of predicted genetic effects. Worked examples are given for estimation of variance and covariance components and for prediction of genetic merits.

Computer-Assisted Decision Support for Student Admissions Based on Their Predicted Academic Performance.

PubMed

Muratov, Eugene; Lewis, Margaret; Fourches, Denis; Tropsha, Alexander; Cox, Wendy C

2017-04-01

Objective. To develop predictive computational models forecasting the academic performance of students in the didactic-rich portion of a doctor of pharmacy (PharmD) curriculum as admission-assisting tools. Methods. All PharmD candidates over three admission cycles were divided into two groups: those who completed the PharmD program with a GPA ≥ 3; and the remaining candidates. Random Forest machine learning technique was used to develop a binary classification model based on 11 pre-admission parameters. Results. Robust and externally predictive models were developed that had particularly high overall accuracy of 77% for candidates with high or low academic performance. These multivariate models were highly accurate in predicting these groups to those obtained using undergraduate GPA and composite PCAT scores only. Conclusion. The models developed in this study can be used to improve the admission process as preliminary filters and thus quickly identify candidates who are likely to be successful in the PharmD curriculum.

Defining Aggressive Prostate Cancer Using a 12-Gene Model1

PubMed Central

Riva, Alberto; Kim, Robert; Varambally, Sooryanarayana; He, Le; Kutok, Jeff; Aster, Jonathan C; Tang, Jeffery; Kuefer, Rainer; Hofer, Matthias D; Febbo, Phillip G; Chinnaiyan, Arul M; Rubin, Mark A

2006-01-01

Abstract The critical clinical question in prostate cancer research is: How do we develop means of distinguishing aggressive disease from indolent disease? Using a combination of proteomic and expression array data, we identified a set of 36 genes with concordant dysregulation of protein products that could be evaluated in situ by quantitative immunohistochemistry. Another five prostate cancer biomarkers were included using linear discriminant analysis, we determined that the optimal model used to predict prostate cancer progression consisted of 12 proteins. Using a separate patient population, transcriptional levels of the 12 genes encoding for these proteins predicted prostate-specific antigen failure in 79 men following surgery for clinically localized prostate cancer (P = .0015). This study demonstrates that cross-platform models can lead to predictive models with the possible advantage of being more robust through this selection process. PMID:16533427

Large-scale model quality assessment for improving protein tertiary structure prediction.

PubMed

Cao, Renzhi; Bhattacharya, Debswapna; Adhikari, Badri; Li, Jilong; Cheng, Jianlin

2015-06-15

Sampling structural models and ranking them are the two major challenges of protein structure prediction. Traditional protein structure prediction methods generally use one or a few quality assessment (QA) methods to select the best-predicted models, which cannot consistently select relatively better models and rank a large number of models well. Here, we develop a novel large-scale model QA method in conjunction with model clustering to rank and select protein structural models. It unprecedentedly applied 14 model QA methods to generate consensus model rankings, followed by model refinement based on model combination (i.e. averaging). Our experiment demonstrates that the large-scale model QA approach is more consistent and robust in selecting models of better quality than any individual QA method. Our method was blindly tested during the 11th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP11) as MULTICOM group. It was officially ranked third out of all 143 human and server predictors according to the total scores of the first models predicted for 78 CASP11 protein domains and second according to the total scores of the best of the five models predicted for these domains. MULTICOM's outstanding performance in the extremely competitive 2014 CASP11 experiment proves that our large-scale QA approach together with model clustering is a promising solution to one of the two major problems in protein structure modeling. The web server is available at: http://sysbio.rnet.missouri.edu/multicom_cluster/human/. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Effects and detection of raw material variability on the performance of near-infrared calibration models for pharmaceutical products.

PubMed

Igne, Benoit; Shi, Zhenqi; Drennen, James K; Anderson, Carl A

2014-02-01

The impact of raw material variability on the prediction ability of a near-infrared calibration model was studied. Calibrations, developed from a quaternary mixture design comprising theophylline anhydrous, lactose monohydrate, microcrystalline cellulose, and soluble starch, were challenged by intentional variation of raw material properties. A design with two theophylline physical forms, three lactose particle sizes, and two starch manufacturers was created to test model robustness. Further challenges to the models were accomplished through environmental conditions. Along with full-spectrum partial least squares (PLS) modeling, variable selection by dynamic backward PLS and genetic algorithms was utilized in an effort to mitigate the effects of raw material variability. In addition to evaluating models based on their prediction statistics, prediction residuals were analyzed by analyses of variance and model diagnostics (Hotelling's T(2) and Q residuals). Full-spectrum models were significantly affected by lactose particle size. Models developed by selecting variables gave lower prediction errors and proved to be a good approach to limit the effect of changing raw material characteristics. Hotelling's T(2) and Q residuals provided valuable information that was not detectable when studying only prediction trends. Diagnostic statistics were demonstrated to be critical in the appropriate interpretation of the prediction of quality parameters. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

Effects of turbulence modelling on prediction of flow characteristics in a bench-scale anaerobic gas-lift digester.

PubMed

Coughtrie, A R; Borman, D J; Sleigh, P A

2013-06-01

Flow in a gas-lift digester with a central draft-tube was investigated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and different turbulence closure models. The k-ω Shear-Stress-Transport (SST), Renormalization-Group (RNG) k-∊, Linear Reynolds-Stress-Model (RSM) and Transition-SST models were tested for a gas-lift loop reactor under Newtonian flow conditions validated against published experimental work. The results identify that flow predictions within the reactor (where flow is transitional) are particularly sensitive to the turbulence model implemented; the Transition-SST model was found to be the most robust for capturing mixing behaviour and predicting separation reliably. Therefore, Transition-SST is recommended over k-∊ models for use in comparable mixing problems. A comparison of results obtained using multiphase Euler-Lagrange and singlephase approaches are presented. The results support the validity of the singlephase modelling assumptions in obtaining reliable predictions of the reactor flow. Solver independence of results was verified by comparing two independent finite-volume solvers (Fluent-13.0sp2 and OpenFOAM-2.0.1). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theoretical Prediction of the Forming Limit Band

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banabic, D.; Vos, M.; Paraianu, L.; Jurco, P.

2007-04-01

Forming Limit Band (FLB) is a very useful tool to improve the sheet metal forming simulation robustness. Until now, the study of the FLB was only experimental. This paper presents the first attempt to model the FLB. The authors have established an original method for predicting the two margins of the limit band. The method was illustrated on the AA6111-T43 aluminum alloy. A good agreement with the experiments has been obtained.

Acute toxicity prediction to threatened and endangered ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Evaluating contaminant sensitivity of threatened and endangered (listed) species and protectiveness of chemical regulations often depends on toxicity data for commonly tested surrogate species. The U.S. EPA’s Internet application Web-ICE is a suite of Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) models that can extrapolate species sensitivity to listed taxa using least-squares regressions of the sensitivity of a surrogate species and a predicted taxon (species, genus, or family). Web-ICE was expanded with new models that can predict toxicity to over 250 listed species. A case study was used to assess protectiveness of genus and family model estimates derived from either geometric mean or minimum taxa toxicity values for listed species. Models developed from the most sensitive value for each chemical were generally protective of the most sensitive species within predicted taxa, including listed species, and were more protective than geometric means models. ICE model estimates were compared to HC5 values derived from Species Sensitivity Distributions for the case study chemicals to assess protectiveness of the two approaches. ICE models provide robust toxicity predictions and can generate protective toxicity estimates for assessing contaminant risk to listed species. Reporting on the development and optimization of ICE models for listed species toxicity estimation

Acute Toxicity Prediction to Threatened and Endangered Species Using Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) Models.

PubMed

Willming, Morgan M; Lilavois, Crystal R; Barron, Mace G; Raimondo, Sandy

2016-10-04

Evaluating contaminant sensitivity of threatened and endangered (listed) species and protectiveness of chemical regulations often depends on toxicity data for commonly tested surrogate species. The U.S. EPA's Internet application Web-ICE is a suite of Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) models that can extrapolate species sensitivity to listed taxa using least-squares regressions of the sensitivity of a surrogate species and a predicted taxon (species, genus, or family). Web-ICE was expanded with new models that can predict toxicity to over 250 listed species. A case study was used to assess protectiveness of genus and family model estimates derived from either geometric mean or minimum taxa toxicity values for listed species. Models developed from the most sensitive value for each chemical were generally protective of the most sensitive species within predicted taxa, including listed species, and were more protective than geometric means models. ICE model estimates were compared to HC5 values derived from Species Sensitivity Distributions for the case study chemicals to assess protectiveness of the two approaches. ICE models provide robust toxicity predictions and can generate protective toxicity estimates for assessing contaminant risk to listed species.

Predicting glycogen concentration in the foot muscle of abalone using near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS).

PubMed

Fluckiger, Miriam; Brown, Malcolm R; Ward, Louise R; Moltschaniwskyj, Natalie A

2011-06-15

Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) was used to predict glycogen concentrations in the foot muscle of cultured abalone. NIR spectra of live, shucked and freeze-dried abalones were modelled against chemically measured glycogen data (range: 0.77-40.9% of dry weight (DW)) using partial least squares (PLS) regression. The calibration models were then used to predict glycogen concentrations of test abalone samples and model robustness was assessed from coefficient of determination of the validation (R2(val)) and standard error of prediction (SEP) values. The model for freeze-dried abalone gave the best prediction (R2(val) 0.97, SEP=1.71), making it suitable for quantifying glycogen. Models for live and shucked abalones had R2(val) of 0.86 and 0.90, and SEP of 3.46 and 3.07 respectively, making them suitable for producing estimations of glycogen concentration. As glycogen is a taste-active component associated with palatability in abalone, this study demonstrated the potential of NIRS as a rapid method to monitor the factors associated with abalone quality. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Machine learning modeling of plant phenology based on coupling satellite and gridded meteorological dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czernecki, Bartosz; Nowosad, Jakub; Jabłońska, Katarzyna

2018-04-01

Changes in the timing of plant phenological phases are important proxies in contemporary climate research. However, most of the commonly used traditional phenological observations do not give any coherent spatial information. While consistent spatial data can be obtained from airborne sensors and preprocessed gridded meteorological data, not many studies robustly benefit from these data sources. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing, predicting, and improving quality of phenological phases monitoring with the use of satellite and meteorological products. A quality-controlled dataset of the 13 BBCH plant phenophases in Poland was collected for the period 2007-2014. For each phenophase, statistical models were built using the most commonly applied regression-based machine learning techniques, such as multiple linear regression, lasso, principal component regression, generalized boosted models, and random forest. The quality of the models was estimated using a k-fold cross-validation. The obtained results showed varying potential for coupling meteorological derived indices with remote sensing products in terms of phenological modeling; however, application of both data sources improves models' accuracy from 0.6 to 4.6 day in terms of obtained RMSE. It is shown that a robust prediction of early phenological phases is mostly related to meteorological indices, whereas for autumn phenophases, there is a stronger information signal provided by satellite-derived vegetation metrics. Choosing a specific set of predictors and applying a robust preprocessing procedures is more important for final results than the selection of a particular statistical model. The average RMSE for the best models of all phenophases is 6.3, while the individual RMSE vary seasonally from 3.5 to 10 days. Models give reliable proxy for ground observations with RMSE below 5 days for early spring and late spring phenophases. For other phenophases, RMSE are higher and rise up to 9-10 days in the case of the earliest spring phenophases.

Robust PLS approach for KPI-related prediction and diagnosis against outliers and missing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Shen; Wang, Guang; Yang, Xu

2014-07-01

In practical industrial applications, the key performance indicator (KPI)-related prediction and diagnosis are quite important for the product quality and economic benefits. To meet these requirements, many advanced prediction and monitoring approaches have been developed which can be classified into model-based or data-driven techniques. Among these approaches, partial least squares (PLS) is one of the most popular data-driven methods due to its simplicity and easy implementation in large-scale industrial process. As PLS is totally based on the measured process data, the characteristics of the process data are critical for the success of PLS. Outliers and missing values are two common characteristics of the measured data which can severely affect the effectiveness of PLS. To ensure the applicability of PLS in practical industrial applications, this paper introduces a robust version of PLS to deal with outliers and missing values, simultaneously. The effectiveness of the proposed method is finally demonstrated by the application results of the KPI-related prediction and diagnosis on an industrial benchmark of Tennessee Eastman process.

Modeling positional effects of regulatory sequences with spline transformations increases prediction accuracy of deep neural networks

PubMed Central

Avsec, Žiga; Cheng, Jun; Gagneur, Julien

2018-01-01

Abstract Motivation Regulatory sequences are not solely defined by their nucleic acid sequence but also by their relative distances to genomic landmarks such as transcription start site, exon boundaries or polyadenylation site. Deep learning has become the approach of choice for modeling regulatory sequences because of its strength to learn complex sequence features. However, modeling relative distances to genomic landmarks in deep neural networks has not been addressed. Results Here we developed spline transformation, a neural network module based on splines to flexibly and robustly model distances. Modeling distances to various genomic landmarks with spline transformations significantly increased state-of-the-art prediction accuracy of in vivo RNA-binding protein binding sites for 120 out of 123 proteins. We also developed a deep neural network for human splice branchpoint based on spline transformations that outperformed the current best, already distance-based, machine learning model. Compared to piecewise linear transformation, as obtained by composition of rectified linear units, spline transformation yields higher prediction accuracy as well as faster and more robust training. As spline transformation can be applied to further quantities beyond distances, such as methylation or conservation, we foresee it as a versatile component in the genomics deep learning toolbox. Availability and implementation Spline transformation is implemented as a Keras layer in the CONCISE python package: https://github.com/gagneurlab/concise. Analysis code is available at https://github.com/gagneurlab/Manuscript_Avsec_Bioinformatics_2017. Contact avsec@in.tum.de or gagneur@in.tum.de Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:29155928

Finite Element Method (FEM) Modeling of Freeze-drying: Monitoring Pharmaceutical Product Robustness During Lyophilization.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaodong; Sadineni, Vikram; Maity, Mita; Quan, Yong; Enterline, Matthew; Mantri, Rao V

2015-12-01

Lyophilization is an approach commonly undertaken to formulate drugs that are unstable to be commercialized as ready to use (RTU) solutions. One of the important aspects of commercializing a lyophilized product is to transfer the process parameters that are developed in lab scale lyophilizer to commercial scale without a loss in product quality. This process is often accomplished by costly engineering runs or through an iterative process at the commercial scale. Here, we are highlighting a combination of computational and experimental approach to predict commercial process parameters for the primary drying phase of lyophilization. Heat and mass transfer coefficients are determined experimentally either by manometric temperature measurement (MTM) or sublimation tests and used as inputs for the finite element model (FEM)-based software called PASSAGE, which computes various primary drying parameters such as primary drying time and product temperature. The heat and mass transfer coefficients will vary at different lyophilization scales; hence, we present an approach to use appropriate factors while scaling-up from lab scale to commercial scale. As a result, one can predict commercial scale primary drying time based on these parameters. Additionally, the model-based approach presented in this study provides a process to monitor pharmaceutical product robustness and accidental process deviations during Lyophilization to support commercial supply chain continuity. The approach presented here provides a robust lyophilization scale-up strategy; and because of the simple and minimalistic approach, it will also be less capital intensive path with minimal use of expensive drug substance/active material.

Proteopathic tau seeding predicts tauopathy in vivo

PubMed Central

Holmes, Brandon B.; Furman, Jennifer L.; Mahan, Thomas E.; Yamasaki, Tritia R.; Mirbaha, Hilda; Eades, William C.; Belaygorod, Larisa; Cairns, Nigel J.; Holtzman, David M.; Diamond, Marc I.

2014-01-01

Transcellular propagation of protein aggregates, or proteopathic seeds, may drive the progression of neurodegenerative diseases in a prion-like manner. In tauopathies such as Alzheimer’s disease, this model predicts that tau seeds propagate pathology through the brain via cell–cell transfer in neural networks. The critical role of tau seeding activity is untested, however. It is unknown whether seeding anticipates and correlates with subsequent development of pathology as predicted for a causal agent. One major limitation has been the lack of a robust assay to measure proteopathic seeding activity in biological specimens. We engineered an ultrasensitive, specific, and facile FRET-based flow cytometry biosensor assay based on expression of tau or synuclein fusions to CFP and YFP, and confirmed its sensitivity and specificity to tau (∼300 fM) and synuclein (∼300 pM) fibrils. This assay readily discriminates Alzheimer’s disease vs. Huntington's disease and aged control brains. We then carried out a detailed time-course study in P301S tauopathy mice, comparing seeding activity versus histological markers of tau pathology, including MC1, AT8, PG5, and Thioflavin S. We detected robust seeding activity at 1.5 mo, >1 mo before the earliest histopathological stain. Proteopathic tau seeding is thus an early and robust marker of tauopathy, suggesting a proximal role for tau seeds in neurodegeneration. PMID:25261551

Robust Bayesian Experimental Design for Conceptual Model Discrimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, H. V.; Tsai, F. T. C.

2015-12-01

A robust Bayesian optimal experimental design under uncertainty is presented to provide firm information for model discrimination, given the least number of pumping wells and observation wells. Firm information is the maximum information of a system can be guaranteed from an experimental design. The design is based on the Box-Hill expected entropy decrease (EED) before and after the experiment design and the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) framework. A max-min programming is introduced to choose the robust design that maximizes the minimal Box-Hill EED subject to that the highest expected posterior model probability satisfies a desired probability threshold. The EED is calculated by the Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The BMA method is used to predict future observations and to quantify future observation uncertainty arising from conceptual and parametric uncertainties in calculating EED. Monte Carlo approach is adopted to quantify the uncertainty in the posterior model probabilities. The optimal experimental design is tested by a synthetic 5-layer anisotropic confined aquifer. Nine conceptual groundwater models are constructed due to uncertain geological architecture and boundary condition. High-performance computing is used to enumerate all possible design solutions in order to identify the most plausible groundwater model. Results highlight the impacts of scedasticity in future observation data as well as uncertainty sources on potential pumping and observation locations.

Robust shrinking ellipsoid model predictive control for linear parameter varying system

PubMed Central

Yan, Yan

2017-01-01

In this paper, a new off-line model predictive control strategy is presented for a kind of linear parameter varying system with polytopic uncertainty. A nest of shrinking ellipsoids is constructed by solving linear matrix inequality. By splitting the objective function into two parts, the proposed strategy moves most computations off-line. The on-line computation is only calculating the current control to assure the system shrinking into the smaller ellipsoid. With the proposed formulation, the stability of the closed system is proved, followed with two numerical examples to demonstrate the proposed method’s effectiveness in the end. PMID:28575028

Intrinsic Raman spectroscopy for quantitative biological spectroscopy Part II

PubMed Central

Bechtel, Kate L.; Shih, Wei-Chuan; Feld, Michael S.

2009-01-01

We demonstrate the effectiveness of intrinsic Raman spectroscopy (IRS) at reducing errors caused by absorption and scattering. Physical tissue models, solutions of varying absorption and scattering coefficients with known concentrations of Raman scatterers, are studied. We show significant improvement in prediction error by implementing IRS to predict concentrations of Raman scatterers using both ordinary least squares regression (OLS) and partial least squares regression (PLS). In particular, we show that IRS provides a robust calibration model that does not increase in error when applied to samples with optical properties outside the range of calibration. PMID:18711512

Modeling methodology for the accurate and prompt prediction of symptomatic events in chronic diseases.

PubMed

Pagán, Josué; Risco-Martín, José L; Moya, José M; Ayala, José L

2016-08-01

Prediction of symptomatic crises in chronic diseases allows to take decisions before the symptoms occur, such as the intake of drugs to avoid the symptoms or the activation of medical alarms. The prediction horizon is in this case an important parameter in order to fulfill the pharmacokinetics of medications, or the time response of medical services. This paper presents a study about the prediction limits of a chronic disease with symptomatic crises: the migraine. For that purpose, this work develops a methodology to build predictive migraine models and to improve these predictions beyond the limits of the initial models. The maximum prediction horizon is analyzed, and its dependency on the selected features is studied. A strategy for model selection is proposed to tackle the trade off between conservative but robust predictive models, with respect to less accurate predictions with higher horizons. The obtained results show a prediction horizon close to 40min, which is in the time range of the drug pharmacokinetics. Experiments have been performed in a realistic scenario where input data have been acquired in an ambulatory clinical study by the deployment of a non-intrusive Wireless Body Sensor Network. Our results provide an effective methodology for the selection of the future horizon in the development of prediction algorithms for diseases experiencing symptomatic crises. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

T2N as a new tool for robust electrophysiological modeling demonstrated for mature and adult-born dentate granule cells

PubMed Central

Mongiat, Lucas Alberto; Schwarzacher, Stephan Wolfgang

2017-01-01

Compartmental models are the theoretical tool of choice for understanding single neuron computations. However, many models are incomplete, built ad hoc and require tuning for each novel condition rendering them of limited usability. Here, we present T2N, a powerful interface to control NEURON with Matlab and TREES toolbox, which supports generating models stable over a broad range of reconstructed and synthetic morphologies. We illustrate this for a novel, highly detailed active model of dentate granule cells (GCs) replicating a wide palette of experiments from various labs. By implementing known differences in ion channel composition and morphology, our model reproduces data from mouse or rat, mature or adult-born GCs as well as pharmacological interventions and epileptic conditions. This work sets a new benchmark for detailed compartmental modeling. T2N is suitable for creating robust models useful for large-scale networks that could lead to novel predictions. We discuss possible T2N application in degeneracy studies. PMID:29165247

Attrition in Models of Intergenerational Links Using the PSID with Extensions to Health and to Sibling Models*

PubMed Central

Fitzgerald, John M.

2012-01-01

Selective attrition potentially biases estimation of intergenerational links in health and economic status. This paper documents attrition in the PSID through 2007 for a cohort of children, and investigates attrition bias in intergenerational models predicting adult health, education and earnings, including models based on sibling differences. Although attrition affects unconditional means, the weighted PSID generally maintains its representativeness along key dimensions in comparison to the National Health Interview Survey. Using PSID, sibling correlations in outcomes and father-son correlations in earnings are not significantly affected by attrition. Models of intergenerational links with covariates yield more mixed results with females showing few robust impacts of attrition and males showing potential attrition bias for education and earnings outcomes. For adult health outcomes conditional on child background, neither gender shows significant impacts of attrition for the age ranges and models considered here. Sibling models do not produce robustly higher attrition impacts than individual models. PMID:22368743

Technical note: Bayesian calibration of dynamic ruminant nutrition models.

PubMed

Reed, K F; Arhonditsis, G B; France, J; Kebreab, E

2016-08-01

Mechanistic models of ruminant digestion and metabolism have advanced our understanding of the processes underlying ruminant animal physiology. Deterministic modeling practices ignore the inherent variation within and among individual animals and thus have no way to assess how sources of error influence model outputs. We introduce Bayesian calibration of mathematical models to address the need for robust mechanistic modeling tools that can accommodate error analysis by remaining within the bounds of data-based parameter estimation. For the purpose of prediction, the Bayesian approach generates a posterior predictive distribution that represents the current estimate of the value of the response variable, taking into account both the uncertainty about the parameters and model residual variability. Predictions are expressed as probability distributions, thereby conveying significantly more information than point estimates in regard to uncertainty. Our study illustrates some of the technical advantages of Bayesian calibration and discusses the future perspectives in the context of animal nutrition modeling. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating West Nile virus transmission period in Pennsylvania using an optimized degree-day model.

PubMed

Chen, Shi; Blanford, Justine I; Fleischer, Shelby J; Hutchinson, Michael; Saunders, Michael C; Thomas, Matthew B

2013-07-01

Abstract We provide calibrated degree-day models to predict potential West Nile virus (WNV) transmission periods in Pennsylvania. We begin by following the standard approach of treating the degree-days necessary for the virus to complete the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), and mosquito longevity as constants. This approach failed to adequately explain virus transmission periods based on mosquito surveillance data from 4 locations (Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Williamsport) in Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2008. Allowing the EIP and adult longevity to vary across time and space improved model fit substantially. The calibrated models increase the ability to successfully predict the WNV transmission period in Pennsylvania to 70-80% compared to less than 30% in the uncalibrated model. Model validation showed the optimized models to be robust in 3 of the locations, although still showing errors for Philadelphia. These models and methods could provide useful tools to predict WNV transmission period from surveillance datasets, assess potential WNV risk, and make informed mosquito surveillance strategies.

Predicting the aquatic toxicity mode of action using logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis.

PubMed

Ren, Y Y; Zhou, L C; Yang, L; Liu, P Y; Zhao, B W; Liu, H X

2016-09-01

The paper highlights the use of the logistic regression (LR) method in the construction of acceptable statistically significant, robust and predictive models for the classification of chemicals according to their aquatic toxic modes of action. Essentials accounting for a reliable model were all considered carefully. The model predictors were selected by stepwise forward discriminant analysis (LDA) from a combined pool of experimental data and chemical structure-based descriptors calculated by the CODESSA and DRAGON software packages. Model predictive ability was validated both internally and externally. The applicability domain was checked by the leverage approach to verify prediction reliability. The obtained models are simple and easy to interpret. In general, LR performs much better than LDA and seems to be more attractive for the prediction of the more toxic compounds, i.e. compounds that exhibit excess toxicity versus non-polar narcotic compounds and more reactive compounds versus less reactive compounds. In addition, model fit and regression diagnostics was done through the influence plot which reflects the hat-values, studentized residuals, and Cook's distance statistics of each sample. Overdispersion was also checked for the LR model. The relationships between the descriptors and the aquatic toxic behaviour of compounds are also discussed.

Comprehensive ripeness-index for prediction of ripening level in mangoes by multivariate modelling of ripening behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eyarkai Nambi, Vijayaram; Thangavel, Kuladaisamy; Manickavasagan, Annamalai; Shahir, Sultan

2017-01-01

Prediction of ripeness level in climacteric fruits is essential for post-harvest handling. An index capable of predicting ripening level with minimum inputs would be highly beneficial to the handlers, processors and researchers in fruit industry. A study was conducted with Indian mango cultivars to develop a ripeness index and associated model. Changes in physicochemical, colour and textural properties were measured throughout the ripening period and the period was classified into five stages (unripe, early ripe, partially ripe, ripe and over ripe). Multivariate regression techniques like partial least square regression, principal component regression and multi linear regression were compared and evaluated for its prediction. Multi linear regression model with 12 parameters was found more suitable in ripening prediction. Scientific variable reduction method was adopted to simplify the developed model. Better prediction was achieved with either 2 or 3 variables (total soluble solids, colour and acidity). Cross validation was done to increase the robustness and it was found that proposed ripening index was more effective in prediction of ripening stages. Three-variable model would be suitable for commercial applications where reasonable accuracies are sufficient. However, 12-variable model can be used to obtain more precise results in research and development applications.

Robust Ultraviolet-Visible (UV-Vis) Partial Least-Squares (PLS) Models for Tannin Quantification in Red Wine.

PubMed

Aleixandre-Tudo, José Luis; Nieuwoudt, Helené; Aleixandre, José Luis; Du Toit, Wessel J

2015-02-04

The validation of ultraviolet-visible (UV-vis) spectroscopy combined with partial least-squares (PLS) regression to quantify red wine tannins is reported. The methylcellulose precipitable (MCP) tannin assay and the bovine serum albumin (BSA) tannin assay were used as reference methods. To take the high variability of wine tannins into account when the calibration models were built, a diverse data set was collected from samples of South African red wines that consisted of 18 different cultivars, from regions spanning the wine grape-growing areas of South Africa with their various sites, climates, and soils, ranging in vintage from 2000 to 2012. A total of 240 wine samples were analyzed, and these were divided into a calibration set (n = 120) and a validation set (n = 120) to evaluate the predictive ability of the models. To test the robustness of the PLS calibration models, the predictive ability of the classifying variables cultivar, vintage year, and experimental versus commercial wines was also tested. In general, the statistics obtained when BSA was used as a reference method were slightly better than those obtained with MCP. Despite this, the MCP tannin assay should also be considered as a valid reference method for developing PLS calibrations. The best calibration statistics for the prediction of new samples were coefficient of correlation (R 2 val) = 0.89, root mean standard error of prediction (RMSEP) = 0.16, and residual predictive deviation (RPD) = 3.49 for MCP and R 2 val = 0.93, RMSEP = 0.08, and RPD = 4.07 for BSA, when only the UV region (260-310 nm) was selected, which also led to a faster analysis time. In addition, a difference in the results obtained when the predictive ability of the classifying variables vintage, cultivar, or commercial versus experimental wines was studied suggests that tannin composition is highly affected by many factors. This study also discusses the correlations in tannin values between the methylcellulose and protein precipitation methods.

NAPR: a Cloud-Based Framework for Neuroanatomical Age Prediction.

PubMed

Pardoe, Heath R; Kuzniecky, Ruben

2018-01-01

The availability of cloud computing services has enabled the widespread adoption of the "software as a service" (SaaS) approach for software distribution, which utilizes network-based access to applications running on centralized servers. In this paper we apply the SaaS approach to neuroimaging-based age prediction. Our system, named "NAPR" (Neuroanatomical Age Prediction using R), provides access to predictive modeling software running on a persistent cloud-based Amazon Web Services (AWS) compute instance. The NAPR framework allows external users to estimate the age of individual subjects using cortical thickness maps derived from their own locally processed T1-weighted whole brain MRI scans. As a demonstration of the NAPR approach, we have developed two age prediction models that were trained using healthy control data from the ABIDE, CoRR, DLBS and NKI Rockland neuroimaging datasets (total N = 2367, age range 6-89 years). The provided age prediction models were trained using (i) relevance vector machines and (ii) Gaussian processes machine learning methods applied to cortical thickness surfaces obtained using Freesurfer v5.3. We believe that this transparent approach to out-of-sample evaluation and comparison of neuroimaging age prediction models will facilitate the development of improved age prediction models and allow for robust evaluation of the clinical utility of these methods.

A model of strength

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Douglas H.; Cook, R.D.

2013-01-01

In her AAAS News & Notes piece "Can the Southwest manage its thirst?" (26 July, p. 362), K. Wren quotes Ajay Kalra, who advocates a particular method for predicting Colorado River streamflow "because it eschews complex physical climate models for a statistical data-driven modeling approach." A preference for data-driven models may be appropriate in this individual situation, but it is not so generally, Data-driven models often come with a warning against extrapolating beyond the range of the data used to develop the models. When the future is like the past, data-driven models can work well for prediction, but it is easy to over-model local or transient phenomena, often leading to predictive inaccuracy (1). Mechanistic models are built on established knowledge of the process that connects the response variables with the predictors, using information obtained outside of an extant data set. One may shy away from a mechanistic approach when the underlying process is judged to be too complicated, but good predictive models can be constructed with statistical components that account for ingredients missing in the mechanistic analysis. Models with sound mechanistic components are more generally applicable and robust than data-driven models.

The Mechanisms for Within-Host Influenza Virus Control Affect Model-Based Assessment and Prediction of Antiviral Treatment

PubMed Central

Cao, Pengxing

2017-01-01

Models of within-host influenza viral dynamics have contributed to an improved understanding of viral dynamics and antiviral effects over the past decade. Existing models can be classified into two broad types based on the mechanism of viral control: models utilising target cell depletion to limit the progress of infection and models which rely on timely activation of innate and adaptive immune responses to control the infection. In this paper, we compare how two exemplar models based on these different mechanisms behave and investigate how the mechanistic difference affects the assessment and prediction of antiviral treatment. We find that the assumed mechanism for viral control strongly influences the predicted outcomes of treatment. Furthermore, we observe that for the target cell-limited model the assumed drug efficacy strongly influences the predicted treatment outcomes. The area under the viral load curve is identified as the most reliable predictor of drug efficacy, and is robust to model selection. Moreover, with support from previous clinical studies, we suggest that the target cell-limited model is more suitable for modelling in vitro assays or infection in some immunocompromised/immunosuppressed patients while the immune response model is preferred for predicting the infection/antiviral effect in immunocompetent animals/patients. PMID:28933757

Effects of Grazing Pressure on Efficiency of Grazing on North American Great Plains Rangelands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Robust prediction models describing vegetation and animal responses to stocking rate in North American Great Plains rangelands are lacking as across site comparisons are limited by different qualitative designations of light, moderate and heavy stocking. Comparisons of stocking rates across sites ca...

Robust QCT/FEA Models of Proximal Femur Stiffness and Fracture Load During a Sideways Fall on the Hip

PubMed Central

Dragomir-Daescu, Dan; Buijs, Jorn Op Den; McEligot, Sean; Dai, Yifei; Entwistle, Rachel C.; Salas, Christina; Melton, L. Joseph; Bennet, Kevin E.; Khosla, Sundeep; Amin, Shreyasee

2013-01-01

Clinical implementation of quantitative computed tomography-based finite element analysis (QCT/FEA) of proximal femur stiffness and strength to assess the likelihood of proximal femur (hip) fractures requires a unified modeling procedure, consistency in predicting bone mechanical properties, and validation with realistic test data that represent typical hip fractures, specifically, a sideways fall on the hip. We, therefore, used two sets (n = 9, each) of cadaveric femora with bone densities varying from normal to osteoporotic to build, refine, and validate a new class of QCT/FEA models for hip fracture under loading conditions that simulate a sideways fall on the hip. Convergence requirements of finite element models of the first set of femora led to the creation of a new meshing strategy and a robust process to model proximal femur geometry and material properties from QCT images. We used a second set of femora to cross-validate the model parameters derived from the first set. Refined models were validated experimentally by fracturing femora using specially designed fixtures, load cells, and high speed video capture. CT image reconstructions of fractured femora were created to classify the fractures. The predicted stiffness (cross-validation R2 = 0.87), fracture load (cross-validation R2 = 0.85), and fracture patterns (83% agreement) correlated well with experimental data. PMID:21052839

Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the mid-21st century

PubMed Central

Yue, Xu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Kaplan, Jed O.

2013-01-01

We estimate future wildfire activity over the western United States during the mid-21st century (2046–2065), based on results from 15 climate models following the A1B scenario. We develop fire prediction models by regressing meteorological variables from the current and previous years together with fire indexes onto observed regional area burned. The regressions explain 0.25–0.60 of the variance in observed annual area burned during 1980–2004, depending on the ecoregion. We also parameterize daily area burned with temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. This approach explains ~0.5 of the variance in observed area burned over forest ecoregions but shows no predictive capability in the semi-arid regions of Nevada and California. By applying the meteorological fields from 15 climate models to our fire prediction models, we quantify the robustness of our wildfire projections at mid-century. We calculate increases of 24–124% in area burned using regressions and 63–169% with the parameterization. Our projections are most robust in the southwestern desert, where all GCMs predict significant (p<0.05) meteorological changes. For forested ecoregions, more GCMs predict significant increases in future area burned with the parameterization than with the regressions, because the latter approach is sensitive to hydrological variables that show large inter-model variability in the climate projections. The parameterization predicts that the fire season lengthens by 23 days in the warmer and drier climate at mid-century. Using a chemical transport model, we find that wildfire emissions will increase summertime surface organic carbon aerosol over the western United States by 46–70% and black carbon by 20–27% at midcentury, relative to the present day. The pollution is most enhanced during extreme episodes: above the 84th percentile of concentrations, OC increases by ~90% and BC by ~50%, while visibility decreases from 130 km to 100 km in 32 Federal Class 1 areas in Rocky Mountains Forest. PMID:24015109

Rising CO2 Levels Will Intensify Phytoplankton Blooms in Eutrophic and Hypertrophic Lakes

PubMed Central

Verspagen, Jolanda M. H.; Van de Waal, Dedmer B.; Finke, Jan F.; Visser, Petra M.; Van Donk, Ellen; Huisman, Jef

2014-01-01

Harmful algal blooms threaten the water quality of many eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes and cause severe ecological and economic damage worldwide. Dense blooms often deplete the dissolved CO2 concentration and raise pH. Yet, quantitative prediction of the feedbacks between phytoplankton growth, CO2 drawdown and the inorganic carbon chemistry of aquatic ecosystems has received surprisingly little attention. Here, we develop a mathematical model to predict dynamic changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), pH and alkalinity during phytoplankton bloom development. We tested the model in chemostat experiments with the freshwater cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa at different CO2 levels. The experiments showed that dense blooms sequestered large amounts of atmospheric CO2, not only by their own biomass production but also by inducing a high pH and alkalinity that enhanced the capacity for DIC storage in the system. We used the model to explore how phytoplankton blooms of eutrophic waters will respond to rising CO2 levels. The model predicts that (1) dense phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters can deplete the dissolved CO2 concentration to limiting levels and raise the pH over a relatively wide range of atmospheric CO2 conditions, (2) rising atmospheric CO2 levels will enhance phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters with high nutrient loads, and (3) above some threshold, rising atmospheric CO2 will alleviate phytoplankton blooms from carbon limitation, resulting in less intense CO2 depletion and a lesser increase in pH. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model predictions were qualitatively robust. Quantitatively, the predictions were sensitive to variation in lake depth, DIC input and CO2 gas transfer across the air-water interface, but relatively robust to variation in the carbon uptake mechanisms of phytoplankton. In total, these findings warn that rising CO2 levels may result in a marked intensification of phytoplankton blooms in eutrophic and hypertrophic waters. PMID:25119996

An objective function exploiting suboptimal solutions in metabolic networks

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Flux Balance Analysis is a theoretically elegant, computationally efficient, genome-scale approach to predicting biochemical reaction fluxes. Yet FBA models exhibit persistent mathematical degeneracy that generally limits their predictive power. Results We propose a novel objective function for cellular metabolism that accounts for and exploits degeneracy in the metabolic network to improve flux predictions. In our model, regulation drives metabolism toward a region of flux space that allows nearly optimal growth. Metabolic mutants deviate minimally from this region, a function represented mathematically as a convex cone. Near-optimal flux configurations within this region are considered equally plausible and not subject to further optimizing regulation. Consistent with relaxed regulation near optimality, we find that the size of the near-optimal region predicts flux variability under experimental perturbation. Conclusion Accounting for suboptimal solutions can improve the predictive power of metabolic FBA models. Because fluctuations of enzyme and metabolite levels are inevitable, tolerance for suboptimality may support a functionally robust metabolic network. PMID:24088221

Robust predictive cruise control for commercial vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junell, Jaime; Tumer, Kagan

2013-10-01

In this paper we explore learning-based predictive cruise control and the impact of this technology on increasing fuel efficiency for commercial trucks. Traditional cruise control is wasteful when maintaining a constant velocity over rolling hills. Predictive cruise control (PCC) is able to look ahead at future road conditions and solve for a cost-effective course of action. Model- based controllers have been implemented in this field but cannot accommodate many complexities of a dynamic environment which includes changing road and vehicle conditions. In this work, we focus on incorporating a learner into an already successful model- based predictive cruise controller in order to improve its performance. We explore back propagating neural networks to predict future errors then take actions to prevent said errors from occurring. The results show that this approach improves the model based PCC by up to 60% under certain conditions. In addition, we explore the benefits of classifier ensembles to further improve the gains due to intelligent cruise control.

Modelling the Flow Stress of Alloy 316L using a Multi-Layered Feed Forward Neural Network with Bayesian Regularization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abiriand Bhekisipho Twala, Olufunminiyi

2017-08-01

In this paper, a multilayer feedforward neural network with Bayesian regularization constitutive model is developed for alloy 316L during high strain rate and high temperature plastic deformation. The input variables are strain rate, temperature and strain while the output value is the flow stress of the material. The results show that the use of Bayesian regularized technique reduces the potential of overfitting and overtraining. The prediction quality of the model is thereby improved. The model predictions are in good agreement with experimental measurements. The measurement data used for the network training and model comparison were taken from relevant literature. The developed model is robust as it can be generalized to deformation conditions slightly below or above the training dataset.

ProTSAV: A protein tertiary structure analysis and validation server.

PubMed

Singh, Ankita; Kaushik, Rahul; Mishra, Avinash; Shanker, Asheesh; Jayaram, B

2016-01-01

Quality assessment of predicted model structures of proteins is as important as the protein tertiary structure prediction. A highly efficient quality assessment of predicted model structures directs further research on function. Here we present a new server ProTSAV, capable of evaluating predicted model structures based on some popular online servers and standalone tools. ProTSAV furnishes the user with a single quality score in case of individual protein structure along with a graphical representation and ranking in case of multiple protein structure assessment. The server is validated on ~64,446 protein structures including experimental structures from RCSB and predicted model structures for CASP targets and from public decoy sets. ProTSAV succeeds in predicting quality of protein structures with a specificity of 100% and a sensitivity of 98% on experimentally solved structures and achieves a specificity of 88%and a sensitivity of 91% on predicted protein structures of CASP11 targets under 2Å.The server overcomes the limitations of any single server/method and is seen to be robust in helping in quality assessment. ProTSAV is freely available at http://www.scfbio-iitd.res.in/software/proteomics/protsav.jsp. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

EVALUATING RISK-PREDICTION MODELS USING DATA FROM ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS.

PubMed

Wang, L E; Shaw, Pamela A; Mathelier, Hansie M; Kimmel, Stephen E; French, Benjamin

2016-03-01

The availability of data from electronic health records facilitates the development and evaluation of risk-prediction models, but estimation of prediction accuracy could be limited by outcome misclassification, which can arise if events are not captured. We evaluate the robustness of prediction accuracy summaries, obtained from receiver operating characteristic curves and risk-reclassification methods, if events are not captured (i.e., "false negatives"). We derive estimators for sensitivity and specificity if misclassification is independent of marker values. In simulation studies, we quantify the potential for bias in prediction accuracy summaries if misclassification depends on marker values. We compare the accuracy of alternative prognostic models for 30-day all-cause hospital readmission among 4548 patients discharged from the University of Pennsylvania Health System with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Simulation studies indicate that if misclassification depends on marker values, then the estimated accuracy improvement is also biased, but the direction of the bias depends on the direction of the association between markers and the probability of misclassification. In our application, 29% of the 1143 readmitted patients were readmitted to a hospital elsewhere in Pennsylvania, which reduced prediction accuracy. Outcome misclassification can result in erroneous conclusions regarding the accuracy of risk-prediction models.

Development and Validation of a qRT-PCR Classifier for Lung Cancer Prognosis

PubMed Central

Chen, Guoan; Kim, Sinae; Taylor, Jeremy MG; Wang, Zhuwen; Lee, Oliver; Ramnath, Nithya; Reddy, Rishindra M; Lin, Jules; Chang, Andrew C; Orringer, Mark B; Beer, David G

2011-01-01

Purpose This prospective study aimed to develop a robust and clinically-applicable method to identify high-risk early stage lung cancer patients and then to validate this method for use in future translational studies. Patients and Methods Three published Affymetrix microarray data sets representing 680 primary tumors were used in the survival-related gene selection procedure using clustering, Cox model and random survival forest (RSF) analysis. A final set of 91 genes was selected and tested as a predictor of survival using a qRT-PCR-based assay utilizing an independent cohort of 101 lung adenocarcinomas. Results The RSF model built from 91 genes in the training set predicted patient survival in an independent cohort of 101 lung adenocarcinomas, with a prediction error rate of 26.6%. The mortality risk index (MRI) was significantly related to survival (Cox model p < 0.00001) and separated all patients into low, medium, and high-risk groups (HR = 1.00, 2.82, 4.42). The MRI was also related to survival in stage 1 patients (Cox model p = 0.001), separating patients into low, medium, and high-risk groups (HR = 1.00, 3.29, 3.77). Conclusions The development and validation of this robust qRT-PCR platform allows prediction of patient survival with early stage lung cancer. Utilization will now allow investigators to evaluate it prospectively by incorporation into new clinical trials with the goal of personalized treatment of lung cancer patients and improving patient survival. PMID:21792073

Achievement Emotions and Academic Performance: Longitudinal Models of Reciprocal Effects.

PubMed

Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; Marsh, Herbert W; Murayama, Kou; Goetz, Thomas

2017-09-01

A reciprocal effects model linking emotion and achievement over time is proposed. The model was tested using five annual waves of the Project for the Analysis of Learning and Achievement in Mathematics (PALMA) longitudinal study, which investigated adolescents' development in mathematics (Grades 5-9; N = 3,425 German students; mean starting age = 11.7 years; representative sample). Structural equation modeling showed that positive emotions (enjoyment, pride) positively predicted subsequent achievement (math end-of-the-year grades and test scores), and that achievement positively predicted these emotions, controlling for students' gender, intelligence, and family socioeconomic status. Negative emotions (anger, anxiety, shame, boredom, hopelessness) negatively predicted achievement, and achievement negatively predicted these emotions. The findings were robust across waves, achievement indicators, and school tracks, highlighting the importance of emotions for students' achievement and of achievement for the development of emotions. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Development of Detonation Modeling Capabilities for Rocket Test Facilities: Hydrogen-Oxygen-Nitrogen Mixtures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allgood, Daniel C.

2016-01-01

The objective of the presented work was to develop validated computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based methodologies for predicting propellant detonations and their associated blast environments. Applications of interest were scenarios relevant to rocket propulsion test and launch facilities. All model development was conducted within the framework of the Loci/CHEM CFD tool due to its reliability and robustness in predicting high-speed combusting flow-fields associated with rocket engines and plumes. During the course of the project, verification and validation studies were completed for hydrogen-fueled detonation phenomena such as shock-induced combustion, confined detonation waves, vapor cloud explosions, and deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) processes. The DDT validation cases included predicting flame acceleration mechanisms associated with turbulent flame-jets and flow-obstacles. Excellent comparison between test data and model predictions were observed. The proposed CFD methodology was then successfully applied to model a detonation event that occurred during liquid oxygen/gaseous hydrogen rocket diffuser testing at NASA Stennis Space Center.

Extension and refinement of the predictive value of different classes of markers in ADNI: Four year follow-up data

PubMed Central

Gomar, Jesus J; Conejero-Goldberg, Concepcion; Davies, Peter; Goldberg, Terry E

2014-01-01

Background This study examined the predictive value of different classes of markers in the progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) over an extended 4 year follow-up in ADNI. Methods MCI patients assessed on clinical, cognitive, MRI, PET-FDG, and CSF markers at baseline, and followed on a yearly basis for four years to ascertain progression to AD. Logistic regression models were fitted in clusters including demographics, APOE genotype, cognitive markers, and biomarkers (morphometric, PET-FDG, CSF Abeta and tau). Results The predictive model at four years revealed that two cognitive measures, an episodic memory measure and a clock drawing screening test, were the best predictors of conversion (AUC= 0.78). Conclusions This model of prediction is consistent to the previous model at two years, thus highlighting the importance of cognitive measures in progression from MCI to AD. Cognitive markers were more robust predictors than biomarkers. PMID:24613706

Establishing column batch repeatability according to Quality by Design (QbD) principles using modeling software.

PubMed

Rácz, Norbert; Kormány, Róbert; Fekete, Jenő; Molnár, Imre

2015-04-10

Column technology needs further improvement even today. To get information of batch-to-batch repeatability, intelligent modeling software was applied. Twelve columns from the same production process, but from different batches were compared in this work. In this paper, the retention parameters of these columns with real life sample solutes were studied. The following parameters were selected for measurements: gradient time, temperature and pH. Based on calculated results, batch-to-batch repeatability of BEH columns was evaluated. Two parallel measurements on two columns from the same batch were performed to obtain information about the quality of packing. Calculating the average of individual working points at the highest critical resolution (R(s,crit)) it was found that the robustness, calculated with a newly released robustness module, had a success rate >98% among the predicted 3(6) = 729 experiments for all 12 columns. With the help of retention modeling all substances could be separated independently from the batch and/or packing, using the same conditions, having high robustness of the experiments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genomic predictive model for recurrence and metastasis development in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma patients.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Ilda Patrícia; Caramelo, Francisco; Esteves, Luísa; Menoita, Joana; Marques, Francisco; Barroso, Leonor; Miguéis, Jorge; Melo, Joana Barbosa; Carreira, Isabel Marques

2017-10-24

The head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) population consists mainly of high-risk for recurrence and locally advanced stage patients. Increased knowledge of the HNSCC genomic profile can improve early diagnosis and treatment outcomes. The development of models to identify consistent genomic patterns that distinguish HNSCC patients that will recur and/or develop metastasis after treatment is of utmost importance to decrease mortality and improve survival rates. In this study, we used array comparative genomic hybridization data from HNSCC patients to implement a robust model to predict HNSCC recurrence/metastasis. This predictive model showed a good accuracy (>80%) and was validated in an independent population from TCGA data portal. This predictive genomic model comprises chromosomal regions from 5p, 6p, 8p, 9p, 11q, 12q, 15q and 17p, where several upstream and downstream members of signaling pathways that lead to an increase in cell proliferation and invasion are mapped. The introduction of genomic predictive models in clinical practice might contribute to a more individualized clinical management of the HNSCC patients, reducing recurrences and improving patients' quality of life. The power of this genomic model to predict the recurrence and metastases development should be evaluated in other HNSCC populations.

A fast, robust and tunable synthetic gene oscillator.

PubMed

Stricker, Jesse; Cookson, Scott; Bennett, Matthew R; Mather, William H; Tsimring, Lev S; Hasty, Jeff

2008-11-27

One defining goal of synthetic biology is the development of engineering-based approaches that enable the construction of gene-regulatory networks according to 'design specifications' generated from computational modelling. This approach provides a systematic framework for exploring how a given regulatory network generates a particular phenotypic behaviour. Several fundamental gene circuits have been developed using this approach, including toggle switches and oscillators, and these have been applied in new contexts such as triggered biofilm development and cellular population control. Here we describe an engineered genetic oscillator in Escherichia coli that is fast, robust and persistent, with tunable oscillatory periods as fast as 13 min. The oscillator was designed using a previously modelled network architecture comprising linked positive and negative feedback loops. Using a microfluidic platform tailored for single-cell microscopy, we precisely control environmental conditions and monitor oscillations in individual cells through multiple cycles. Experiments reveal remarkable robustness and persistence of oscillations in the designed circuit; almost every cell exhibited large-amplitude fluorescence oscillations throughout observation runs. The oscillatory period can be tuned by altering inducer levels, temperature and the media source. Computational modelling demonstrates that the key design principle for constructing a robust oscillator is a time delay in the negative feedback loop, which can mechanistically arise from the cascade of cellular processes involved in forming a functional transcription factor. The positive feedback loop increases the robustness of the oscillations and allows for greater tunability. Examination of our refined model suggested the existence of a simplified oscillator design without positive feedback, and we construct an oscillator strain confirming this computational prediction.

Robustness of risk maps and survey networks to knowledge gaps about a new invasive pest.

PubMed

Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Smith, William D

2010-02-01

In pest risk assessment it is frequently necessary to make management decisions regarding emerging threats under severe uncertainty. Although risk maps provide useful decision support for invasive alien species, they rarely address knowledge gaps associated with the underlying risk model or how they may change the risk estimates. Failure to recognize uncertainty leads to risk-ignorant decisions and miscalculation of expected impacts as well as the costs required to minimize these impacts. Here we use the information gap concept to evaluate the robustness of risk maps to uncertainties in key assumptions about an invading organism. We generate risk maps with a spatial model of invasion that simulates potential entries of an invasive pest via international marine shipments, their spread through a landscape, and establishment on a susceptible host. In particular, we focus on the question of how much uncertainty in risk model assumptions can be tolerated before the risk map loses its value. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. The results provide a spatial representation of the robustness of predictions of S. noctilio invasion risk to uncertainty and show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of uncertainty in model parameters may change management decisions about a new invasive pest. We then illustrate how the dependency between the extent of uncertainties and the degree of robustness of a risk map can be used to select a surveillance network design that is most robust to knowledge gaps about the pest.

An integrated uncertainty analysis and data assimilation approach for improved streamflow predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogue, T. S.; He, M.; Franz, K. J.; Margulis, S. A.; Vrugt, J. A.

2010-12-01

The current study presents an integrated uncertainty analysis and data assimilation approach to improve streamflow predictions while simultaneously providing meaningful estimates of the associated uncertainty. Study models include the National Weather Service (NWS) operational snow model (SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (SAC-SMA). The proposed approach uses the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) to simultaneously estimate uncertainties in model parameters, forcing, and observations. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is configured with the DREAM-identified uncertainty structure and applied to assimilating snow water equivalent data into the SNOW17 model for improved snowmelt simulations. Snowmelt estimates then serves as an input to the SAC-SMA model to provide streamflow predictions at the basin outlet. The robustness and usefulness of the approach is evaluated for a snow-dominated watershed in the northern Sierra Mountains. This presentation describes the implementation of DREAM and EnKF into the coupled SNOW17 and SAC-SMA models and summarizes study results and findings.

Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship of Insecticidal Activity of Benzyl Ether Diamidine Derivatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Mengting; Chen, Yan; Li, Jing; Zhou, Jun

2017-12-01

The molecular electrongativity distance vector (MEDV-13) was used to describe the molecular structure of benzyl ether diamidine derivatives in this paper, Based on MEDV-13, The three-parameter (M 3, M 15, M 47) QSAR model of insecticidal activity (pIC 50) for 60 benzyl ether diamidine derivatives was constructed by leaps-and-bounds regression (LBR) . The traditional correlation coefficient (R) and the cross-validation correlation coefficient (R CV ) were 0.975 and 0.971, respectively. The robustness of the regression model was validated by Jackknife method, the correlation coefficient R were between 0.971 and 0.983. Meanwhile, the independent variables in the model were tested to be no autocorrelation. The regression results indicate that the model has good robust and predictive capabilities. The research would provide theoretical guidance for the development of new generation of anti African trypanosomiasis drugs with efficiency and low toxicity.

A sampling approach for predicting the eating quality of apples using visible-near infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Martínez Vega, Mabel V; Sharifzadeh, Sara; Wulfsohn, Dvoralai; Skov, Thomas; Clemmensen, Line Harder; Toldam-Andersen, Torben B

2013-12-01

Visible-near infrared spectroscopy remains a method of increasing interest as a fast alternative for the evaluation of fruit quality. The success of the method is assumed to be achieved by using large sets of samples to produce robust calibration models. In this study we used representative samples of an early and a late season apple cultivar to evaluate model robustness (in terms of prediction ability and error) on the soluble solids content (SSC) and acidity prediction, in the wavelength range 400-1100 nm. A total of 196 middle-early season and 219 late season apples (Malus domestica Borkh.) cvs 'Aroma' and 'Holsteiner Cox' samples were used to construct spectral models for SSC and acidity. Partial least squares (PLS), ridge regression (RR) and elastic net (EN) models were used to build prediction models. Furthermore, we compared three sub-sample arrangements for forming training and test sets ('smooth fractionator', by date of measurement after harvest and random). Using the 'smooth fractionator' sampling method, fewer spectral bands (26) and elastic net resulted in improved performance for SSC models of 'Aroma' apples, with a coefficient of variation CVSSC = 13%. The model showed consistently low errors and bias (PLS/EN: R(2) cal = 0.60/0.60; SEC = 0.88/0.88°Brix; Biascal = 0.00/0.00; R(2) val = 0.33/0.44; SEP = 1.14/1.03; Biasval = 0.04/0.03). However, the prediction acidity and for SSC (CV = 5%) of the late cultivar 'Holsteiner Cox' produced inferior results as compared with 'Aroma'. It was possible to construct local SSC and acidity calibration models for early season apple cultivars with CVs of SSC and acidity around 10%. The overall model performance of these data sets also depend on the proper selection of training and test sets. The 'smooth fractionator' protocol provided an objective method for obtaining training and test sets that capture the existing variability of the fruit samples for construction of visible-NIR prediction models. The implication is that by using such 'efficient' sampling methods for obtaining an initial sample of fruit that represents the variability of the population and for sub-sampling to form training and test sets it should be possible to use relatively small sample sizes to develop spectral predictions of fruit quality. Using feature selection and elastic net appears to improve the SSC model performance in terms of R(2), RMSECV and RMSEP for 'Aroma' apples. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

Chill Down Process of Hydrogen Transport Pipelines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mei, Renwei; Klausner, James

2006-01-01

A pseudo-steady model has been developed to predict the chilldown history of pipe wall temperature in the horizontal transport pipeline for cryogenic fluids. A new film boiling heat transfer model is developed by incorporating the stratified flow structure for cryogenic chilldown. A modified nucleate boiling heat transfer correlation for cryogenic chilldown process inside a horizontal pipe is proposed. The efficacy of the correlations is assessed by comparing the model predictions with measured values of wall temperature in several azimuthal positions in a well controlled experiment by Chung et al. (2004). The computed pipe wall temperature histories match well with the measured results. The present model captures important features of thermal interaction between the pipe wall and the cryogenic fluid, provides a simple and robust platform for predicting pipe wall chilldown history in long horizontal pipe at relatively low computational cost, and builds a foundation to incorporate the two-phase hydrodynamic interaction in the chilldown process.

Plasticity models of material variability based on uncertainty quantification techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Reese E.; Rizzi, Francesco; Boyce, Brad

The advent of fabrication techniques like additive manufacturing has focused attention on the considerable variability of material response due to defects and other micro-structural aspects. This variability motivates the development of an enhanced design methodology that incorporates inherent material variability to provide robust predictions of performance. In this work, we develop plasticity models capable of representing the distribution of mechanical responses observed in experiments using traditional plasticity models of the mean response and recently developed uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques. Lastly, we demonstrate that the new method provides predictive realizations that are superior to more traditional ones, and how these UQmore » techniques can be used in model selection and assessing the quality of calibrated physical parameters.« less

A predictive model for the tokamak density limit

DOE PAGES

Teng, Q.; Brennan, D. P.; Delgado-Aparicio, L.; ...

2016-07-28

We reproduce the Greenwald density limit, in all tokamak experiments by using a phenomenologically correct model with parameters in the range of experiments. A simple model of equilibrium evolution and local power balance inside the island has been implemented to calculate the radiation-driven thermo-resistive tearing mode growth and explain the density limit. Strong destabilization of the tearing mode due to an imbalance of local Ohmic heating and radiative cooling in the island predicts the density limit within a few percent. Furthermore, we found the density limit and it is a local edge limit and weakly dependent on impurity densities. Ourmore » results are robust to a substantial variation in model parameters within the range of experiments.« less

In Silico Prediction of Organ Level Toxicity: Linking Chemistry to Adverse Effects

PubMed Central

Cronin, Mark T.D.; Enoch, Steven J.; Mellor, Claire L.; Przybylak, Katarzyna R.; Richarz, Andrea-Nicole; Madden, Judith C.

2017-01-01

In silico methods to predict toxicity include the use of (Quantitative) Structure-Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs) as well as grouping (category formation) allowing for read-across. A challenging area for in silico modelling is the prediction of chronic toxicity and the No Observed (Adverse) Effect Level (NO(A)EL) in particular. A proposed solution to the prediction of chronic toxicity is to consider organ level effects, as opposed to modelling the NO(A)EL itself. This review has focussed on the use of structural alerts to identify potential liver toxicants. In silico profilers, or groups of structural alerts, have been developed based on mechanisms of action and informed by current knowledge of Adverse Outcome Pathways. These profilers are robust and can be coded computationally to allow for prediction. However, they do not cover all mechanisms or modes of liver toxicity and recommendations for the improvement of these approaches are given. PMID:28744348

In Silico Prediction of Organ Level Toxicity: Linking Chemistry to Adverse Effects.

PubMed

Cronin, Mark T D; Enoch, Steven J; Mellor, Claire L; Przybylak, Katarzyna R; Richarz, Andrea-Nicole; Madden, Judith C

2017-07-01

In silico methods to predict toxicity include the use of (Quantitative) Structure-Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs) as well as grouping (category formation) allowing for read-across. A challenging area for in silico modelling is the prediction of chronic toxicity and the No Observed (Adverse) Effect Level (NO(A)EL) in particular. A proposed solution to the prediction of chronic toxicity is to consider organ level effects, as opposed to modelling the NO(A)EL itself. This review has focussed on the use of structural alerts to identify potential liver toxicants. In silico profilers, or groups of structural alerts, have been developed based on mechanisms of action and informed by current knowledge of Adverse Outcome Pathways. These profilers are robust and can be coded computationally to allow for prediction. However, they do not cover all mechanisms or modes of liver toxicity and recommendations for the improvement of these approaches are given.

An improved advertising CTR prediction approach based on the fuzzy deep neural network

PubMed Central

Gao, Shu; Li, Mingjiang

2018-01-01

Combining a deep neural network with fuzzy theory, this paper proposes an advertising click-through rate (CTR) prediction approach based on a fuzzy deep neural network (FDNN). In this approach, fuzzy Gaussian-Bernoulli restricted Boltzmann machine (FGBRBM) is first applied to input raw data from advertising datasets. Next, fuzzy restricted Boltzmann machine (FRBM) is used to construct the fuzzy deep belief network (FDBN) with the unsupervised method layer by layer. Finally, fuzzy logistic regression (FLR) is utilized for modeling the CTR. The experimental results show that the proposed FDNN model outperforms several baseline models in terms of both data representation capability and robustness in advertising click log datasets with noise. PMID:29727443

An improved advertising CTR prediction approach based on the fuzzy deep neural network.

PubMed

Jiang, Zilong; Gao, Shu; Li, Mingjiang

2018-01-01

Combining a deep neural network with fuzzy theory, this paper proposes an advertising click-through rate (CTR) prediction approach based on a fuzzy deep neural network (FDNN). In this approach, fuzzy Gaussian-Bernoulli restricted Boltzmann machine (FGBRBM) is first applied to input raw data from advertising datasets. Next, fuzzy restricted Boltzmann machine (FRBM) is used to construct the fuzzy deep belief network (FDBN) with the unsupervised method layer by layer. Finally, fuzzy logistic regression (FLR) is utilized for modeling the CTR. The experimental results show that the proposed FDNN model outperforms several baseline models in terms of both data representation capability and robustness in advertising click log datasets with noise.

Hybrid robust model based on an improved functional link neural network integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) and its application to predicting key process variables.

PubMed

He, Yan-Lin; Xu, Yuan; Geng, Zhi-Qiang; Zhu, Qun-Xiong

2016-03-01

In this paper, a hybrid robust model based on an improved functional link neural network integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) is proposed. Firstly, an improved functional link neural network with small norm of expanded weights and high input-output correlation (SNEWHIOC-FLNN) was proposed for enhancing the generalization performance of FLNN. Unlike the traditional FLNN, the expanded variables of the original inputs are not directly used as the inputs in the proposed SNEWHIOC-FLNN model. The original inputs are attached to some small norm of expanded weights. As a result, the correlation coefficient between some of the expanded variables and the outputs is enhanced. The larger the correlation coefficient is, the more relevant the expanded variables tend to be. In the end, the expanded variables with larger correlation coefficient are selected as the inputs to improve the performance of the traditional FLNN. In order to test the proposed SNEWHIOC-FLNN model, three UCI (University of California, Irvine) regression datasets named Housing, Concrete Compressive Strength (CCS), and Yacht Hydro Dynamics (YHD) are selected. Then a hybrid model based on the improved FLNN integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) was built. In IFLNN-PLS model, the connection weights are calculated using the partial least square method but not the error back propagation algorithm. Lastly, IFLNN-PLS was developed as an intelligent measurement model for accurately predicting the key variables in the Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) process and the High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) process. Simulation results illustrated that the IFLNN-PLS could significant improve the prediction performance. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

“Teens are from Mars, Adults are from Venus”: Analyzing and Predicting Age Groups with Behavioral Characteristics in Instagram

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Kyungsik; Lee, Sanghack; Jang, Jin

We present behavioral characteristics of teens and adults in Instagram and prediction of them from their behaviors. Based on two independently created datasets from user profiles and tags, we identify teens and adults, and carry out comparative analyses on their online behaviors. Our study reveals: (1) significant behavioral differences between two age groups; (2) the empirical evidence of classifying teens and adults with up to 82% accuracy, using traditional predictive models, while two baseline methods achieve 68% at best; and (3) the robustness of our models by achieving 76%—81% when tested against an independent dataset obtained without using user profilesmore » or tags.« less

Zebrafish Whole-Adult-Organism Chemogenomics for Large-Scale Predictive and Discovery Chemical Biology

PubMed Central

Lam, Siew Hong; Mathavan, Sinnakarupan; Tong, Yan; Li, Haixia; Karuturi, R. Krishna Murthy; Wu, Yilian; Vega, Vinsensius B.; Liu, Edison T.; Gong, Zhiyuan

2008-01-01

The ability to perform large-scale, expression-based chemogenomics on whole adult organisms, as in invertebrate models (worm and fly), is highly desirable for a vertebrate model but its feasibility and potential has not been demonstrated. We performed expression-based chemogenomics on the whole adult organism of a vertebrate model, the zebrafish, and demonstrated its potential for large-scale predictive and discovery chemical biology. Focusing on two classes of compounds with wide implications to human health, polycyclic (halogenated) aromatic hydrocarbons [P(H)AHs] and estrogenic compounds (ECs), we generated robust prediction models that can discriminate compounds of the same class from those of different classes in two large independent experiments. The robust expression signatures led to the identification of biomarkers for potent aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) and estrogen receptor (ER) agonists, respectively, and were validated in multiple targeted tissues. Knowledge-based data mining of human homologs of zebrafish genes revealed highly conserved chemical-induced biological responses/effects, health risks, and novel biological insights associated with AHR and ER that could be inferred to humans. Thus, our study presents an effective, high-throughput strategy of capturing molecular snapshots of chemical-induced biological states of a whole adult vertebrate that provides information on biomarkers of effects, deregulated signaling pathways, and possible affected biological functions, perturbed physiological systems, and increased health risks. These findings place zebrafish in a strategic position to bridge the wide gap between cell-based and rodent models in chemogenomics research and applications, especially in preclinical drug discovery and toxicology. PMID:18618001

Application of a random walk model to geographic distributions of animal mitochondrial DNA variation.

PubMed

Neigel, J E; Avise, J C

1993-12-01

In rapidly evolving molecules, such as animal mitochondrial DNA, mutations that delineate specific lineages may not be dispersed at sufficient rates to attain an equilibrium between genetic drift and gene flow. Here we predict conditions that lead to nonequilibrium geographic distributions of mtDNA lineages, test the robustness of these predictions and examine mtDNA data sets for consistency with our model. Under a simple isolation by distance model, the variance of an mtDNA lineage's geographic distribution is expected be proportional to its age. Simulation results indicated that this relationship is fairly robust. Analysis of mtDNA data from natural populations revealed three qualitative distributional patterns: (1) significant departure of lineage structure from equilibrium geographic distributions, a pattern exhibited in three rodent species with limited dispersal; (2) nonsignificant departure from equilibrium expectations, exhibited by two avian and two marine fish species with potentials for relatively long-distance dispersal; and (3) a progression from nonequilibrium distributions for younger lineages to equilibrium distributions for older lineages, a condition displayed by one surveyed avian species. These results demonstrate the advantages of considering mutation and genealogy in the interpretation of mtDNA geographic variation.

Jet Noise Modeling for Suppressed and Unsuppressed Aircraft in Simulated Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, James R.; Krejsa, Eugene A.; Clark, Bruce J; Berton, Jeffrey J.

2009-01-01

This document describes the development of further extensions and improvements to the jet noise model developed by Modern Technologies Corporation (MTC) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The noise component extraction and correlation approach, first used successfully by MTC in developing a noise prediction model for two-dimensional mixer ejector (2DME) nozzles under the High Speed Research (HSR) Program, has been applied to dual-stream nozzles, then extended and improved in earlier tasks under this contract. Under Task 6, the coannular jet noise model was formulated and calibrated with limited scale model data, mainly at high bypass ratio, including a limited-range prediction of the effects of mixing-enhancement nozzle-exit chevrons on jet noise. Under Task 9 this model was extended to a wider range of conditions, particularly those appropriate for a Supersonic Business Jet, with an improvement in simulated flight effects modeling and generalization of the suppressor model. In the present task further comparisons are made over a still wider range of conditions from more test facilities. The model is also further generalized to cover single-stream nozzles of otherwise similar configuration. So the evolution of this prediction/analysis/correlation approach has been in a sense backward, from the complex to the simple; but from this approach a very robust capability is emerging. Also from these studies, some observations emerge relative to theoretical considerations. The purpose of this task is to develop an analytical, semi-empirical jet noise prediction method applicable to takeoff, sideline and approach noise of subsonic and supersonic cruise aircraft over a wide size range. The product of this task is an even more consistent and robust model for the Footprint/Radius (FOOTPR) code than even the Task 9 model. The model is validated for a wider range of cases and statistically quantified for the various reference facilities. The possible role of facility effects will thus be documented. Although the comparisons that can be accomplished within the limited resources of this task are not comprehensive, they provide a broad enough sampling to enable NASA to make an informed decision on how much further effort should be expended on such comparisons. The improved finalized model is incorporated into the FOOTPR code. MTC has also supported the adaptation of this code for incorporation in NASA s Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP).

Novel Robust Models for Damage Tolerant Helicopter Components

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-12-01

was performed on the same materials under two loading spectra, Rotarix , a standard spectrum for a helicopter rotorhead, and Falstaff, a fixed wing...the best agreement for Rotarix on 7010 aluminium, with errors of only 15-20%. FASTRAN was second best. All other models made non conservative...SAE 4340 steel. For Rotarix . K(PR)still was the closest, for Falstaff, other models achieved better accuracy. All predictions were made blind, in advance of knowledge of the validation test data.

Stress-Strain Characterization for Reversed Loading Path and Constitutive Modeling for AHSS Springback Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Hong; Huang, Mai; Sadagopan, Sriram; Yao, Hong

2017-09-01

With increasing vehicle fuel economy standards, automotive OEMs are widely using various AHSS grades including DP, TRIP, CP and 3rd Gen AHSS to reduce vehicle weight due to their good combination of strength and formability. As one of enabling technologies for AHSS application, the requirement for requiring accurate prediction of springback for cold stamped AHSS parts stimulated a large number of investigations in the past decade with reversed loading path at large strains followed by constitutive modeling. With a spectrum of complex loading histories occurring in production stamping processes, there were many challenges in this field including issues of test data reliability, loading path representability, constitutive model robustness and non-unique constitutive parameter-identification. In this paper, various testing approaches and constitutive modeling will be reviewed briefly and a systematic methodology from stress-strain characterization, constitutive model parameter identification for material card generation will be presented in order to support automotive OEM’s need on virtual stamping. This systematic methodology features a tension-compression test at large strain with robust anti-buckling device with concurrent friction force correction, properly selected loading paths to represent material behavior during different springback modes as well as the 10-parameter Yoshida model with knowledge-based parameter-identification through nonlinear optimization. Validation cases for lab AHSS parts will also be discussed to check applicability of this methodology.

Evaluation of Data-Driven Models for Predicting Solar Photovoltaics Power Output

DOE PAGES

Moslehi, Salim; Reddy, T. Agami; Katipamula, Srinivas

2017-09-10

This research was undertaken to evaluate different inverse models for predicting power output of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems under different practical scenarios. In particular, we have investigated whether PV power output prediction accuracy can be improved if module/cell temperature was measured in addition to climatic variables, and also the extent to which prediction accuracy degrades if solar irradiation is not measured on the plane of array but only on a horizontal surface. We have also investigated the significance of different independent or regressor variables, such as wind velocity and incident angle modifier in predicting PV power output and cell temperature.more » The inverse regression model forms have been evaluated both in terms of their goodness-of-fit, and their accuracy and robustness in terms of their predictive performance. Given the accuracy of the measurements, expected CV-RMSE of hourly power output prediction over the year varies between 3.2% and 8.6% when only climatic data are used. Depending on what type of measured climatic and PV performance data is available, different scenarios have been identified and the corresponding appropriate modeling pathways have been proposed. The corresponding models are to be implemented on a controller platform for optimum operational planning of microgrids and integrated energy systems.« less

Improving the prediction of African savanna vegetation variables using time series of MODIS products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsalyuk, Miriam; Kelly, Maggi; Getz, Wayne M.

2017-09-01

African savanna vegetation is subject to extensive degradation as a result of rapid climate and land use change. To better understand these changes detailed assessment of vegetation structure is needed across an extensive spatial scale and at a fine temporal resolution. Applying remote sensing techniques to savanna vegetation is challenging due to sparse cover, high background soil signal, and difficulty to differentiate between spectral signals of bare soil and dry vegetation. In this paper, we attempt to resolve these challenges by analyzing time series of four MODIS Vegetation Products (VPs): Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) for Etosha National Park, a semiarid savanna in north-central Namibia. We create models to predict the density, cover, and biomass of the main savanna vegetation forms: grass, shrubs, and trees. To calibrate remote sensing data we developed an extensive and relatively rapid field methodology and measured herbaceous and woody vegetation during both the dry and wet seasons. We compared the efficacy of the four MODIS-derived VPs in predicting vegetation field measured variables. We then compared the optimal time span of VP time series to predict ground-measured vegetation. We found that Multiyear Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR) models were superior to single year or single date models. Our results show that NDVI-based PLSR models yield robust prediction of tree density (R2 = 0.79, relative Root Mean Square Error, rRMSE = 1.9%) and tree cover (R2 = 0.78, rRMSE = 0.3%). EVI provided the best model for shrub density (R2 = 0.82) and shrub cover (R2 = 0.83), but was only marginally superior over models based on other VPs. FPAR was the best predictor of vegetation biomass of trees (R2 = 0.76), shrubs (R2 = 0.83), and grass (R2 = 0.91). Finally, we addressed an enduring challenge in the remote sensing of semiarid vegetation by examining the transferability of predictive models through space and time. Our results show that models created in the wetter part of Etosha could accurately predict trees' and shrubs' variables in the drier part of the reserve and vice versa. Moreover, our results demonstrate that models created for vegetation variables in the dry season of 2011 could be successfully applied to predict vegetation in the wet season of 2012. We conclude that extensive field data combined with multiyear time series of MODIS vegetation products can produce robust predictive models for multiple vegetation forms in the African savanna. These methods advance the monitoring of savanna vegetation dynamics and contribute to improved management and conservation of these valuable ecosystems.

The comparison of robust partial least squares regression with robust principal component regression on a real

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polat, Esra; Gunay, Suleyman

2013-10-01

One of the problems encountered in Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) is multicollinearity, which causes the overestimation of the regression parameters and increase of the variance of these parameters. Hence, in case of multicollinearity presents, biased estimation procedures such as classical Principal Component Regression (CPCR) and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) are then performed. SIMPLS algorithm is the leading PLSR algorithm because of its speed, efficiency and results are easier to interpret. However, both of the CPCR and SIMPLS yield very unreliable results when the data set contains outlying observations. Therefore, Hubert and Vanden Branden (2003) have been presented a robust PCR (RPCR) method and a robust PLSR (RPLSR) method called RSIMPLS. In RPCR, firstly, a robust Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method for high-dimensional data on the independent variables is applied, then, the dependent variables are regressed on the scores using a robust regression method. RSIMPLS has been constructed from a robust covariance matrix for high-dimensional data and robust linear regression. The purpose of this study is to show the usage of RPCR and RSIMPLS methods on an econometric data set, hence, making a comparison of two methods on an inflation model of Turkey. The considered methods have been compared in terms of predictive ability and goodness of fit by using a robust Root Mean Squared Error of Cross-validation (R-RMSECV), a robust R2 value and Robust Component Selection (RCS) statistic.

Robust Bayesian Analysis of Heavy-tailed Stochastic Volatility Models using Scale Mixtures of Normal Distributions

PubMed Central

Abanto-Valle, C. A.; Bandyopadhyay, D.; Lachos, V. H.; Enriquez, I.

2009-01-01

A Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility (SV) models using the class of symmetric scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions is considered. In the face of non-normality, this provides an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of the normal distribution. Specific distributions examined include the normal, student-t, slash and the variance gamma distributions. Using a Bayesian paradigm, an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is introduced for parameter estimation. Moreover, the mixing parameters obtained as a by-product of the scale mixture representation can be used to identify outliers. The methods developed are applied to analyze daily stock returns data on S&P500 index. Bayesian model selection criteria as well as out-of- sample forecasting results reveal that the SV models based on heavy-tailed SMN distributions provide significant improvement in model fit as well as prediction to the S&P500 index data over the usual normal model. PMID:20730043

A structural model of the VEGF signalling pathway: emergence of robustness and redundancy properties.

PubMed

Lignet, Floriane; Calvez, Vincent; Grenier, Emmanuel; Ribba, Benjamin

2013-02-01

The vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is known as one of the main promoter of angiogenesis - the process of blood vessel formation. Angiogenesis has been recognized as a key stage for cancer development and metastasis. In this paper, we propose a structural model of the main molecular pathways involved in the endothelial cells response to VEGF stimuli. The model, built on qualitative information from knowledge databases, is composed of 38 ordinary differential equations with 78 parameters and focuses on the signalling driving endothelial cell proliferation, migration and resistance to apoptosis. Following a VEGF stimulus, the model predicts an increase of proliferation and migration capability, and a decrease in the apoptosis activity. Model simulations and sensitivity analysis highlight the emergence of robustness and redundancy properties of the pathway. If further calibrated and validated, this model could serve as tool to analyse and formulate new hypothesis on th e VEGF signalling cascade and its role in cancer development and treatment.

CADASTER QSPR Models for Predictions of Melting and Boiling Points of Perfluorinated Chemicals.

PubMed

Bhhatarai, Barun; Teetz, Wolfram; Liu, Tao; Öberg, Tomas; Jeliazkova, Nina; Kochev, Nikolay; Pukalov, Ognyan; Tetko, Igor V; Kovarich, Simona; Papa, Ester; Gramatica, Paola

2011-03-14

Quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR) studies on per- and polyfluorinated chemicals (PFCs) on melting point (MP) and boiling point (BP) are presented. The training and prediction chemicals used for developing and validating the models were selected from Syracuse PhysProp database and literatures. The available experimental data sets were split in two different ways: a) random selection on response value, and b) structural similarity verified by self-organizing-map (SOM), in order to propose reliable predictive models, developed only on the training sets and externally verified on the prediction sets. Individual linear and non-linear approaches based models developed by different CADASTER partners on 0D-2D Dragon descriptors, E-state descriptors and fragment based descriptors as well as consensus model and their predictions are presented. In addition, the predictive performance of the developed models was verified on a blind external validation set (EV-set) prepared using PERFORCE database on 15 MP and 25 BP data respectively. This database contains only long chain perfluoro-alkylated chemicals, particularly monitored by regulatory agencies like US-EPA and EU-REACH. QSPR models with internal and external validation on two different external prediction/validation sets and study of applicability-domain highlighting the robustness and high accuracy of the models are discussed. Finally, MPs for additional 303 PFCs and BPs for 271 PFCs were predicted for which experimental measurements are unknown. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A penalized quantitative structure-property relationship study on melting point of energetic carbocyclic nitroaromatic compounds using adaptive bridge penalty.

PubMed

Al-Fakih, A M; Algamal, Z Y; Lee, M H; Aziz, M

2018-05-01

A penalized quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model with adaptive bridge penalty for predicting the melting points of 92 energetic carbocyclic nitroaromatic compounds is proposed. To ensure the consistency of the descriptor selection of the proposed penalized adaptive bridge (PBridge), we proposed a ridge estimator ([Formula: see text]) as an initial weight in the adaptive bridge penalty. The Bayesian information criterion was applied to ensure the accurate selection of the tuning parameter ([Formula: see text]). The PBridge based model was internally and externally validated based on [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], the Y-randomization test, [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and the applicability domain. The validation results indicate that the model is robust and not due to chance correlation. The descriptor selection and prediction performance of PBridge for the training dataset outperforms the other methods used. PBridge shows the highest [Formula: see text] of 0.959, [Formula: see text] of 0.953, [Formula: see text] of 0.949 and [Formula: see text] of 0.959, and the lowest [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. For the test dataset, PBridge shows a higher [Formula: see text] of 0.945 and [Formula: see text] of 0.948, and a lower [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], indicating its better prediction performance. The results clearly reveal that the proposed PBridge is useful for constructing reliable and robust QSPRs for predicting melting points prior to synthesizing new organic compounds.

Accurate and robust genomic prediction of celiac disease using statistical learning.

PubMed

Abraham, Gad; Tye-Din, Jason A; Bhalala, Oneil G; Kowalczyk, Adam; Zobel, Justin; Inouye, Michael

2014-02-01

Practical application of genomic-based risk stratification to clinical diagnosis is appealing yet performance varies widely depending on the disease and genomic risk score (GRS) method. Celiac disease (CD), a common immune-mediated illness, is strongly genetically determined and requires specific HLA haplotypes. HLA testing can exclude diagnosis but has low specificity, providing little information suitable for clinical risk stratification. Using six European cohorts, we provide a proof-of-concept that statistical learning approaches which simultaneously model all SNPs can generate robust and highly accurate predictive models of CD based on genome-wide SNP profiles. The high predictive capacity replicated both in cross-validation within each cohort (AUC of 0.87-0.89) and in independent replication across cohorts (AUC of 0.86-0.9), despite differences in ethnicity. The models explained 30-35% of disease variance and up to ∼43% of heritability. The GRS's utility was assessed in different clinically relevant settings. Comparable to HLA typing, the GRS can be used to identify individuals without CD with ≥99.6% negative predictive value however, unlike HLA typing, fine-scale stratification of individuals into categories of higher-risk for CD can identify those that would benefit from more invasive and costly definitive testing. The GRS is flexible and its performance can be adapted to the clinical situation by adjusting the threshold cut-off. Despite explaining a minority of disease heritability, our findings indicate a genomic risk score provides clinically relevant information to improve upon current diagnostic pathways for CD and support further studies evaluating the clinical utility of this approach in CD and other complex diseases.

Climate change, species distribution models, and physiological performance metrics: predicting when biogeographic models are likely to fail.

PubMed

Woodin, Sarah A; Hilbish, Thomas J; Helmuth, Brian; Jones, Sierra J; Wethey, David S

2013-09-01

Modeling the biogeographic consequences of climate change requires confidence in model predictions under novel conditions. However, models often fail when extended to new locales, and such instances have been used as evidence of a change in physiological tolerance, that is, a fundamental niche shift. We explore an alternative explanation and propose a method for predicting the likelihood of failure based on physiological performance curves and environmental variance in the original and new environments. We define the transient event margin (TEM) as the gap between energetic performance failure, defined as CTmax, and the upper lethal limit, defined as LTmax. If TEM is large relative to environmental fluctuations, models will likely fail in new locales. If TEM is small relative to environmental fluctuations, models are likely to be robust for new locales, even when mechanism is unknown. Using temperature, we predict when biogeographic models are likely to fail and illustrate this with a case study. We suggest that failure is predictable from an understanding of how climate drives nonlethal physiological responses, but for many species such data have not been collected. Successful biogeographic forecasting thus depends on understanding when the mechanisms limiting distribution of a species will differ among geographic regions, or at different times, resulting in realized niche shifts. TEM allows prediction of the likelihood of such model failure.

Consumer Search, Rationing Rules, and the Consequence for Competition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruebeck, Christopher S.

Firms' conjectures about demand are consequential in oligopoly games. Through agent-based modeling of consumers' search for products, we can study the rationing of demand between capacity-constrained firms offering homogeneous products and explore the robustness of analytically solvable models' results. After algorithmically formalizing short-run search behavior rather than assuming a long-run average, this study predicts stronger competition in a two-stage capacity-price game.

Linking models and data on vegetation structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.; Thomas, R. Q.; Dubayah, R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Shugart, H. H.

2010-06-01

For more than a century, scientists have recognized the importance of vegetation structure in understanding forest dynamics. Now future satellite missions such as Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI) hold the potential to provide unprecedented global data on vegetation structure needed to reduce uncertainties in terrestrial carbon dynamics. Here, we briefly review the uses of data on vegetation structure in ecosystem models, develop and analyze theoretical models to quantify model-data requirements, and describe recent progress using a mechanistic modeling approach utilizing a formal scaling method and data on vegetation structure to improve model predictions. Generally, both limited sampling and coarse resolution averaging lead to model initialization error, which in turn is propagated in subsequent model prediction uncertainty and error. In cases with representative sampling, sufficient resolution, and linear dynamics, errors in initialization tend to compensate at larger spatial scales. However, with inadequate sampling, overly coarse resolution data or models, and nonlinear dynamics, errors in initialization lead to prediction error. A robust model-data framework will require both models and data on vegetation structure sufficient to resolve important environmental gradients and tree-level heterogeneity in forest structure globally.

Extended robust support vector machine based on financial risk minimization.

PubMed

Takeda, Akiko; Fujiwara, Shuhei; Kanamori, Takafumi

2014-11-01

Financial risk measures have been used recently in machine learning. For example, ν-support vector machine ν-SVM) minimizes the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of margin distribution. The measure is popular in finance because of the subadditivity property, but it is very sensitive to a few outliers in the tail of the distribution. We propose a new classification method, extended robust SVM (ER-SVM), which minimizes an intermediate risk measure between the CVaR and value at risk (VaR) by expecting that the resulting model becomes less sensitive than ν-SVM to outliers. We can regard ER-SVM as an extension of robust SVM, which uses a truncated hinge loss. Numerical experiments imply the ER-SVM's possibility of achieving a better prediction performance with proper parameter setting.

Gaussian process-based surrogate modeling framework for process planning in laser powder-bed fusion additive manufacturing of 316L stainless steel

DOE PAGES

Tapia, Gustavo; Khairallah, Saad A.; Matthews, Manyalibo J.; ...

2017-09-22

Here, Laser Powder-Bed Fusion (L-PBF) metal-based additive manufacturing (AM) is complex and not fully understood. Successful processing for one material, might not necessarily apply to a different material. This paper describes a workflow process that aims at creating a material data sheet standard that describes regimes where the process can be expected to be robust. The procedure consists of building a Gaussian process-based surrogate model of the L-PBF process that predicts melt pool depth in single-track experiments given a laser power, scan speed, and laser beam size combination. The predictions are then mapped onto a power versus scan speed diagrammore » delimiting the conduction from the keyhole melting controlled regimes. This statistical framework is shown to be robust even for cases where experimental training data might be suboptimal in quality, if appropriate physics-based filters are applied. Additionally, it is demonstrated that a high-fidelity simulation model of L-PBF can equally be successfully used for building a surrogate model, which is beneficial since simulations are getting more efficient and are more practical to study the response of different materials, than to re-tool an AM machine for new material powder.« less

Gaussian process-based surrogate modeling framework for process planning in laser powder-bed fusion additive manufacturing of 316L stainless steel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tapia, Gustavo; Khairallah, Saad A.; Matthews, Manyalibo J.

Here, Laser Powder-Bed Fusion (L-PBF) metal-based additive manufacturing (AM) is complex and not fully understood. Successful processing for one material, might not necessarily apply to a different material. This paper describes a workflow process that aims at creating a material data sheet standard that describes regimes where the process can be expected to be robust. The procedure consists of building a Gaussian process-based surrogate model of the L-PBF process that predicts melt pool depth in single-track experiments given a laser power, scan speed, and laser beam size combination. The predictions are then mapped onto a power versus scan speed diagrammore » delimiting the conduction from the keyhole melting controlled regimes. This statistical framework is shown to be robust even for cases where experimental training data might be suboptimal in quality, if appropriate physics-based filters are applied. Additionally, it is demonstrated that a high-fidelity simulation model of L-PBF can equally be successfully used for building a surrogate model, which is beneficial since simulations are getting more efficient and are more practical to study the response of different materials, than to re-tool an AM machine for new material powder.« less

Prediction of black box warning by mining patterns of Convergent Focus Shift in clinical trial study populations using linked public data.

PubMed

Ma, Handong; Weng, Chunhua

2016-04-01

To link public data resources for predicting post-marketing drug safety label changes by analyzing the Convergent Focus Shift patterns among drug testing trials. We identified 256 top-selling prescription drugs between 2003 and 2013 and divided them into 83 BBW drugs (drugs with at least one black box warning label) and 173 ROBUST drugs (drugs without any black box warning label) based on their FDA black box warning (BBW) records. We retrieved 7499 clinical trials that each had at least one of these drugs for intervention from the ClinicalTrials.gov. We stratified all the trials by pre-marketing or post-marketing status, study phase, and study start date. For each trial, we retrieved drug and disease concepts from clinical trial summaries to model its study population using medParser and SNOMED-CT. Convergent Focus Shift (CFS) pattern was calculated and used to assess the temporal changes in study populations from pre-marketing to post-marketing trials for each drug. Then we selected 68 candidate drugs, 18 with BBW warning and 50 without, that each had at least nine pre-marketing trials and nine post-marketing trials for predictive modeling. A random forest predictive model was developed to predict BBW acquisition incidents based on CFS patterns among these drugs. Pre- and post-marketing trials of BBW and ROBUST drugs were compared to look for their differences in CFS patterns. Among the 18 BBW drugs, we consistently observed that the post-marketing trials focused more on recruiting patients with medical conditions previously unconsidered in the pre-marketing trials. In contrast, among the 50 ROBUST drugs, the post-marketing trials involved a variety of medications for testing their associations with target intervention(s). We found it feasible to predict BBW acquisitions using different CFS patterns between the two groups of drugs. Our random forest predictor achieved an AUC of 0.77. We also demonstrated the feasibility of the predictor for identifying long-term BBW acquisition events without compromising prediction accuracy. This study contributes a method for post-marketing pharmacovigilance using Convergent Focus Shift (CFS) patterns in clinical trial study populations mined from linked public data resources. These signals are otherwise unavailable from individual data resources. We demonstrated the added value of linked public data and the feasibility of integrating ClinicalTrials.gov summaries and drug safety labels for post-marketing surveillance. Future research is needed to ensure better accessibility and linkage of heterogeneous drug safety data for efficient pharmacovigilance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems for Rift Valley fever risk assessment in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedrow, Christine Atkins

The primary goal in this study was to explore remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as aids in predicting candidate Rift Valley fever (RVF) competent vector abundance and distribution in Virginia, and as means of estimating where risk of establishment in mosquitoes and risk of transmission to human populations would be greatest in Virginia. A second goal in this study was to determine whether the remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be used as a proxy variable of local conditions for the development of mosquitoes to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. As part of this study, a mosquito surveillance database was compiled to archive the historical patterns of mosquito species abundance in Virginia. In addition, linkages between mosquito density and local environmental and climatic patterns were spatially and temporally examined. The present study affirms the potential role of remote sensing imagery for species distribution prediction, and it demonstrates that ecological niche modeling is a valuable predictive tool to analyze the distributions of populations. The MaxEnt ecological niche modeling program was used to model predicted ranges for potential RVF competent vectors in Virginia. The MaxEnt model was shown to be robust, and the candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution map is presented. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was found to be the most useful environmental-climatic variable to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. However, these results indicate that a more robust prediction is obtained by including other environmental-climatic factors correlated to mosquito densities (e.g., temperature, precipitation, elevation) with NDVI. The present study demonstrates that remote sensing and GIS can be used with ecological niche and risk modeling methods to estimate risk of virus establishment in mosquitoes and transmission to humans. Maps delineating the geographic areas in Virginia with highest risk for RVF establishment in mosquito populations and RVF disease transmission to human populations were generated in a GIS using human, domestic animal, and white-tailed deer population estimates and the MaxEnt potential RVF competent vector species distribution prediction. The candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution and RVF risk maps presented in this study can help vector control agencies and public health officials focus Rift Valley fever surveillance efforts in geographic areas with large co-located populations of potential RVF competent vectors and human, domestic animal, and wildlife hosts. Keywords. Rift Valley fever, risk assessment, Ecological Niche Modeling, MaxEnt, Geographic Information System, remote sensing, Pearson's Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient, vectors, mosquito distribution, mosquito density, mosquito surveillance, United States, Virginia, domestic animals, white-tailed deer, ArcGIS

Maximum likelihood Bayesian model averaging and its predictive analysis for groundwater reactive transport models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtis, Gary P.; Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming

2015-01-01

While Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has been widely used in groundwater modeling, it is infrequently applied to groundwater reactive transport modeling because of multiple sources of uncertainty in the coupled hydrogeochemical processes and because of the long execution time of each model run. To resolve these problems, this study analyzed different levels of uncertainty in a hierarchical way, and used the maximum likelihood version of BMA, i.e., MLBMA, to improve the computational efficiency. This study demonstrates the applicability of MLBMA to groundwater reactive transport modeling in a synthetic case in which twenty-seven reactive transport models were designed to predict the reactive transport of hexavalent uranium (U(VI)) based on observations at a former uranium mill site near Naturita, CO. These reactive transport models contain three uncertain model components, i.e., parameterization of hydraulic conductivity, configuration of model boundary, and surface complexation reactions that simulate U(VI) adsorption. These uncertain model components were aggregated into the alternative models by integrating a hierarchical structure into MLBMA. The modeling results of the individual models and MLBMA were analyzed to investigate their predictive performance. The predictive logscore results show that MLBMA generally outperforms the best model, suggesting that using MLBMA is a sound strategy to achieve more robust model predictions relative to a single model. MLBMA works best when the alternative models are structurally distinct and have diverse model predictions. When correlation in model structure exists, two strategies were used to improve predictive performance by retaining structurally distinct models or assigning smaller prior model probabilities to correlated models. Since the synthetic models were designed using data from the Naturita site, the results of this study are expected to provide guidance for real-world modeling. Limitations of applying MLBMA to the synthetic study and future real-world modeling are discussed.

Corrosion Prediction with Parallel Finite Element Modeling for Coupled Hygro-Chemo Transport into Concrete under Chloride-Rich Environment

PubMed Central

Na, Okpin; Cai, Xiao-Chuan; Xi, Yunping

2017-01-01

The prediction of the chloride-induced corrosion is very important because of the durable life of concrete structure. To simulate more realistic durability performance of concrete structures, complex scientific methods and more accurate material models are needed. In order to predict the robust results of corrosion initiation time and to describe the thin layer from concrete surface to reinforcement, a large number of fine meshes are also used. The purpose of this study is to suggest more realistic physical model regarding coupled hygro-chemo transport and to implement the model with parallel finite element algorithm. Furthermore, microclimate model with environmental humidity and seasonal temperature is adopted. As a result, the prediction model of chloride diffusion under unsaturated condition was developed with parallel algorithms and was applied to the existing bridge to validate the model with multi-boundary condition. As the number of processors increased, the computational time decreased until the number of processors became optimized. Then, the computational time increased because the communication time between the processors increased. The framework of present model can be extended to simulate the multi-species de-icing salts ingress into non-saturated concrete structures in future work. PMID:28772714

Development of an automated energy audit protocol for office buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deb, Chirag

This study aims to enhance the building energy audit process, and bring about reduction in time and cost requirements in the conduction of a full physical audit. For this, a total of 5 Energy Service Companies in Singapore have collaborated and provided energy audit reports for 62 office buildings. Several statistical techniques are adopted to analyse these reports. These techniques comprise cluster analysis and development of prediction models to predict energy savings for buildings. The cluster analysis shows that there are 3 clusters of buildings experiencing different levels of energy savings. To understand the effect of building variables on the change in EUI, a robust iterative process for selecting the appropriate variables is developed. The results show that the 4 variables of GFA, non-air-conditioning energy consumption, average chiller plant efficiency and installed capacity of chillers should be taken for clustering. This analysis is extended to the development of prediction models using linear regression and artificial neural networks (ANN). An exhaustive variable selection algorithm is developed to select the input variables for the two energy saving prediction models. The results show that the ANN prediction model can predict the energy saving potential of a given building with an accuracy of +/-14.8%.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moslehi, Salim; Reddy, T. Agami; Katipamula, Srinivas

This research was undertaken to evaluate different inverse models for predicting power output of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems under different practical scenarios. In particular, we have investigated whether PV power output prediction accuracy can be improved if module/cell temperature was measured in addition to climatic variables, and also the extent to which prediction accuracy degrades if solar irradiation is not measured on the plane of array but only on a horizontal surface. We have also investigated the significance of different independent or regressor variables, such as wind velocity and incident angle modifier in predicting PV power output and cell temperature.more » The inverse regression model forms have been evaluated both in terms of their goodness-of-fit, and their accuracy and robustness in terms of their predictive performance. Given the accuracy of the measurements, expected CV-RMSE of hourly power output prediction over the year varies between 3.2% and 8.6% when only climatic data are used. Depending on what type of measured climatic and PV performance data is available, different scenarios have been identified and the corresponding appropriate modeling pathways have been proposed. The corresponding models are to be implemented on a controller platform for optimum operational planning of microgrids and integrated energy systems.« less

Measles on the edge: coastal heterogeneities and infection dynamics.

PubMed

Bharti, Nita; Xia, Yingcun; Bjornstad, Ottar N; Grenfell, Bryan T

2008-04-09

Mathematical models can help elucidate the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics as well as the impact of control measures. The gravity model for directly transmitted diseases is currently one of the most parsimonious models for spatial epidemic spread. This model uses distance-weighted, population size-dependent coupling to estimate host movement and disease incidence in metapopulations. The model captures overall measles dynamics in terms of underlying human movement in pre-vaccination England and Wales (previously established). In spatial models, edges often present a special challenge. Therefore, to test the model's robustness, we analyzed gravity model incidence predictions for coastal cities in England and Wales. Results show that, although predictions are accurate for inland towns, they significantly underestimate coastal persistence. We examine incidence, outbreak seasonality, and public transportation records, to show that the model's inaccuracies stem from an underestimation of total contacts per individual along the coast. We rescue this predicted 'edge effect' by increasing coastal contacts to approximate the number of per capita inland contacts. These results illustrate the impact of 'edge effects' on epidemic metapopulations in general and illustrate directions for the refinement of spatiotemporal epidemic models.

Predicting climate change: Uncertainties and prospects for surmounting them

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghil, Michael

2008-03-01

General circulation models (GCMs) are among the most detailed and sophisticated models of natural phenomena in existence. Still, the lack of robust and efficient subgrid-scale parametrizations for GCMs, along with the inherent sensitivity to initial data and the complex nonlinearities involved, present a major and persistent obstacle to narrowing the range of estimates for end-of-century warming. Estimating future changes in the distribution of climatic extrema is even more difficult. Brute-force tuning the large number of GCM parameters does not appear to help reduce the uncertainties. Andronov and Pontryagin (1937) proposed structural stability as a way to evaluate model robustness. Unfortunately, many real-world systems proved to be structurally unstable. We illustrate these concepts with a very simple model for the El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our model is governed by a differential delay equation with a single delay and periodic (seasonal) forcing. Like many of its more or less detailed and realistic precursors, this model exhibits a Devil's staircase. We study the model's structural stability, describe the mechanisms of the observed instabilities, and connect our findings to ENSO phenomenology. In the model's phase-parameter space, regions of smooth dependence on parameters alternate with rough, fractal ones. We then apply the tools of random dynamical systems and stochastic structural stability to the circle map and a torus map. The effect of noise with compact support on these maps is fairly intuitive: it is the most robust structures in phase-parameter space that survive the smoothing introduced by the noise. The nature of the stochastic forcing matters, thus suggesting that certain types of stochastic parametrizations might be better than others in achieving GCM robustness. This talk represents joint work with M. Chekroun, E. Simonnet and I. Zaliapin.

Short stack modeling of degradation in solid oxide fuel cells. Part II. Sensitivity and interaction analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gazzarri, J. I.; Kesler, O.

In the first part of this two-paper series, we presented a numerical model of the impedance behaviour of a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) aimed at simulating the change in the impedance spectrum induced by contact degradation at the interconnect-electrode, and at the electrode-electrolyte interfaces. The purpose of that investigation was to develop a non-invasive diagnostic technique to identify degradation modes in situ. In the present paper, we appraise the predictive capabilities of the proposed method in terms of its robustness to uncertainties in the input parameters, many of which are very difficult to measure independently. We applied this technique to the degradation modes simulated in Part I, in addition to anode sulfur poisoning. Electrode delamination showed the highest robustness to input parameter variations, followed by interconnect oxidation and interconnect detachment. The most sensitive degradation mode was sulfur poisoning, due to strong parameter interactions. In addition, we simulate several simultaneous two-degradation-mode scenarios, assessing the method's capabilities and limitations for the prediction of electrochemical behaviour of SOFC's undergoing multiple simultaneous degradation modes.

Quantifying and Characterizing Tonic Thermal Pain Across Subjects From EEG Data Using Random Forest Models.

PubMed

Vijayakumar, Vishal; Case, Michelle; Shirinpour, Sina; He, Bin

2017-12-01

Effective pain assessment and management strategies are needed to better manage pain. In addition to self-report, an objective pain assessment system can provide a more complete picture of the neurophysiological basis for pain. In this study, a robust and accurate machine learning approach is developed to quantify tonic thermal pain across healthy subjects into a maximum of ten distinct classes. A random forest model was trained to predict pain scores using time-frequency wavelet representations of independent components obtained from electroencephalography (EEG) data, and the relative importance of each frequency band to pain quantification is assessed. The mean classification accuracy for predicting pain on an independent test subject for a range of 1-10 is 89.45%, highest among existing state of the art quantification algorithms for EEG. The gamma band is the most important to both intersubject and intrasubject classification accuracy. The robustness and generalizability of the classifier are demonstrated. Our results demonstrate the potential of this tool to be used clinically to help us to improve chronic pain treatment and establish spectral biomarkers for future pain-related studies using EEG.

A QSAR study of integrase strand transfer inhibitors based on a large set of pyrimidine, pyrimidone, and pyridopyrazine carboxamide derivatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Campos, Luana Janaína; de Melo, Eduardo Borges

2017-08-01

In the present study, 199 compounds derived from pyrimidine, pyrimidone and pyridopyrazine carboxamides with inhibitory activity against HIV-1 integrase were modeled. Subsequently, a multivariate QSAR study was conducted with 54 molecules employed by Ordered Predictors Selection (OPS) and Partial Least Squares (PLS) for the selection of variables and model construction, respectively. Topological, electrotopological, geometric, and molecular descriptors were used. The selected real model was robust and free from chance correlation; in addition, it demonstrated favorable internal and external statistical quality. Once statistically validated, the training model was used to predict the activity of a second data set (n = 145). The root mean square deviation (RMSD) between observed and predicted values was 0.698. Although it is a value outside of the standards, only 15 (10.34%) of the samples exhibited higher residual values than 1 log unit, a result considered acceptable. Results of Williams and Euclidean applicability domains relative to the prediction showed that the predictions did not occur by extrapolation and that the model is representative of the chemical space of test compounds.

Predictive models for radial sap flux variation in coniferous, diffuse-porous and ring-porous temperate trees.

PubMed

Berdanier, Aaron B; Miniat, Chelcy F; Clark, James S

2016-08-01

Accurately scaling sap flux observations to tree or stand levels requires accounting for variation in sap flux between wood types and by depth into the tree. However, existing models for radial variation in axial sap flux are rarely used because they are difficult to implement, there is uncertainty about their predictive ability and calibration measurements are often unavailable. Here we compare different models with a diverse sap flux data set to test the hypotheses that radial profiles differ by wood type and tree size. We show that radial variation in sap flux is dependent on wood type but independent of tree size for a range of temperate trees. The best-fitting model predicted out-of-sample sap flux observations and independent estimates of sapwood area with small errors, suggesting robustness in the new settings. We develop a method for predicting whole-tree water use with this model and include computer code for simple implementation in other studies. Published by Oxford University Press 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

PockDrug: A Model for Predicting Pocket Druggability That Overcomes Pocket Estimation Uncertainties.

PubMed

Borrel, Alexandre; Regad, Leslie; Xhaard, Henri; Petitjean, Michel; Camproux, Anne-Claude

2015-04-27

Predicting protein druggability is a key interest in the target identification phase of drug discovery. Here, we assess the pocket estimation methods' influence on druggability predictions by comparing statistical models constructed from pockets estimated using different pocket estimation methods: a proximity of either 4 or 5.5 Å to a cocrystallized ligand or DoGSite and fpocket estimation methods. We developed PockDrug, a robust pocket druggability model that copes with uncertainties in pocket boundaries. It is based on a linear discriminant analysis from a pool of 52 descriptors combined with a selection of the most stable and efficient models using different pocket estimation methods. PockDrug retains the best combinations of three pocket properties which impact druggability: geometry, hydrophobicity, and aromaticity. It results in an average accuracy of 87.9% ± 4.7% using a test set and exhibits higher accuracy (∼5-10%) than previous studies that used an identical apo set. In conclusion, this study confirms the influence of pocket estimation on pocket druggability prediction and proposes PockDrug as a new model that overcomes pocket estimation variability.

Individual vision and peak distribution in collective actions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Peng

2017-06-01

People make decisions on whether they should participate as participants or not as free riders in collective actions with heterogeneous visions. Besides of the utility heterogeneity and cost heterogeneity, this work includes and investigates the effect of vision heterogeneity by constructing a decision model, i.e. the revised peak model of participants. In this model, potential participants make decisions under the joint influence of utility, cost, and vision heterogeneities. The outcomes of simulations indicate that vision heterogeneity reduces the values of peaks, and the relative variance of peaks is stable. Under normal distributions of vision heterogeneity and other factors, the peaks of participants are normally distributed as well. Therefore, it is necessary to predict distribution traits of peaks based on distribution traits of related factors such as vision heterogeneity and so on. We predict the distribution of peaks with parameters of both mean and standard deviation, which provides the confident intervals and robust predictions of peaks. Besides, we validate the peak model of via the Yuyuan Incident, a real case in China (2014), and the model works well in explaining the dynamics and predicting the peak of real case.

Questioning the Faith - Models and Prediction in Stream Restoration (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcock, P.

2013-12-01

River management and restoration demand prediction at and beyond our present ability. Management questions, framed appropriately, can motivate fundamental advances in science, although the connection between research and application is not always easy, useful, or robust. Why is that? This presentation considers the connection between models and management, a connection that requires critical and creative thought on both sides. Essential challenges for managers include clearly defining project objectives and accommodating uncertainty in any model prediction. Essential challenges for the research community include matching the appropriate model to project duration, space, funding, information, and social constraints and clearly presenting answers that are actually useful to managers. Better models do not lead to better management decisions or better designs if the predictions are not relevant to and accepted by managers. In fact, any prediction may be irrelevant if the need for prediction is not recognized. The predictive target must be developed in an active dialog between managers and modelers. This relationship, like any other, can take time to develop. For example, large segments of stream restoration practice have remained resistant to models and prediction because the foundational tenet - that channels built to a certain template will be able to transport the supplied sediment with the available flow - has no essential physical connection between cause and effect. Stream restoration practice can be steered in a predictive direction in which project objectives are defined as predictable attributes and testable hypotheses. If stream restoration design is defined in terms of the desired performance of the channel (static or dynamic, sediment surplus or deficit), then channel properties that provide these attributes can be predicted and a basis exists for testing approximations, models, and predictions.

Conformal Regression for Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship Modeling-Quantifying Prediction Uncertainty.

PubMed

Svensson, Fredrik; Aniceto, Natalia; Norinder, Ulf; Cortes-Ciriano, Isidro; Spjuth, Ola; Carlsson, Lars; Bender, Andreas

2018-05-29

Making predictions with an associated confidence is highly desirable as it facilitates decision making and resource prioritization. Conformal regression is a machine learning framework that allows the user to define the required confidence and delivers predictions that are guaranteed to be correct to the selected extent. In this study, we apply conformal regression to model molecular properties and bioactivity values and investigate different ways to scale the resultant prediction intervals to create as efficient (i.e., narrow) regressors as possible. Different algorithms to estimate the prediction uncertainty were used to normalize the prediction ranges, and the different approaches were evaluated on 29 publicly available data sets. Our results show that the most efficient conformal regressors are obtained when using the natural exponential of the ensemble standard deviation from the underlying random forest to scale the prediction intervals, but other approaches were almost as efficient. This approach afforded an average prediction range of 1.65 pIC50 units at the 80% confidence level when applied to bioactivity modeling. The choice of nonconformity function has a pronounced impact on the average prediction range with a difference of close to one log unit in bioactivity between the tightest and widest prediction range. Overall, conformal regression is a robust approach to generate bioactivity predictions with associated confidence.

Improvement of Bragg peak shift estimation using dimensionality reduction techniques and predictive linear modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Yafei; Macq, Benoit

2017-11-01

With the emergence of clinical prototypes and first patient acquisitions for proton therapy, the research on prompt gamma imaging is aiming at making most use of the prompt gamma data for in vivo estimation of any shift from expected Bragg peak (BP). The simple problem of matching the measured prompt gamma profile of each pencil beam with a reference simulation from the treatment plan is actually made complex by uncertainties which can translate into distortions during treatment. We will illustrate this challenge and demonstrate the robustness of a predictive linear model we proposed for BP shift estimation based on principal component analysis (PCA) method. It considered the first clinical knife-edge slit camera design in use with anthropomorphic phantom CT data. Particularly, 4115 error scenarios were simulated for the learning model. PCA was applied to the training input randomly chosen from 500 scenarios for eliminating data collinearities. A total variance of 99.95% was used for representing the testing input from 3615 scenarios. This model improved the BP shift estimation by an average of 63+/-19% in a range between -2.5% and 86%, comparing to our previous profile shift (PS) method. The robustness of our method was demonstrated by a comparative study conducted by applying 1000 times Poisson noise to each profile. 67% cases obtained by the learning model had lower prediction errors than those obtained by PS method. The estimation accuracy ranged between 0.31 +/- 0.22 mm and 1.84 +/- 8.98 mm for the learning model, while for PS method it ranged between 0.3 +/- 0.25 mm and 20.71 +/- 8.38 mm.

Genetic improvement in mastitis resistance: comparison of selection criteria from cross-sectional and random regression sire models for somatic cell score.

PubMed

Odegård, J; Klemetsdal, G; Heringstad, B

2005-04-01

Several selection criteria for reducing incidence of mastitis were developed from a random regression sire model for test-day somatic cell score (SCS). For comparison, sire transmitting abilities were also predicted based on a cross-sectional model for lactation mean SCS. Only first-crop daughters were used in genetic evaluation of SCS, and the different selection criteria were compared based on their correlation with incidence of clinical mastitis in second-crop daughters (measured as mean daughter deviations). Selection criteria were predicted based on both complete and reduced first-crop daughter groups (261 or 65 daughters per sire, respectively). For complete daughter groups, predicted transmitting abilities at around 30 d in milk showed the best predictive ability for incidence of clinical mastitis, closely followed by average predicted transmitting abilities over the entire lactation. Both of these criteria were derived from the random regression model. These selection criteria improved accuracy of selection by approximately 2% relative to a cross-sectional model. However, for reduced daughter groups, the cross-sectional model yielded increased predictive ability compared with the selection criteria based on the random regression model. This result may be explained by the cross-sectional model being more robust, i.e., less sensitive to precision of (co)variance components estimates and effects of data structure.

Epidemic patch models applied to pandemic influenza: contact matrix, stochasticity, robustness of predictions.

PubMed

Lunelli, Antonella; Pugliese, Andrea; Rizzo, Caterina

2009-07-01

Due to the recent emergence of H5N1 virus, the modelling of pandemic influenza has become a relevant issue. Here we present an SEIR model formulated to simulate a possible outbreak in Italy, analysing its structure and, more generally, the effect of including specific details into a model. These details regard population heterogeneities, such as age and spatial distribution, as well as stochasticity, that regulates the epidemic dynamics when the number of infectives is low. We discuss and motivate the specific modelling choices made when building the model and investigate how the model details influence the predicted dynamics. Our analysis may help in deciding which elements of complexity are worth including in the design of a deterministic model for pandemic influenza, in a balance between, on the one hand, keeping the model computationally efficient and the number of parameters low and, on the other hand, maintaining the necessary realistic features.

Modeling of near wall turbulence and modeling of bypass transition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Z.

1992-01-01

The objectives for this project are as follows: (1) Modeling of the near wall turbulence: We aim to develop a second order closure for the near wall turbulence. As a first step of this project, we try to develop a kappa-epsilon model for near wall turbulence. We require the resulting model to be able to handle both near wall turbulence and turbulent flows away from the wall, computationally robust, and applicable for complex flow situations, flow with separation, for example, and (2) Modeling of the bypass transition: We aim to develop a bypass transition model which contains the effect of intermittency. Thus, the model can be used for both the transitional boundary layers and the turbulent boundary layers. We require the resulting model to give a good prediction of momentum and heat transfer within the transitional boundary and a good prediction of the effect of freestream turbulence on transitional boundary layers.

Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling of Macitentan: Prediction of Drug-Drug Interactions.

PubMed

de Kanter, Ruben; Sidharta, Patricia N; Delahaye, Stéphane; Gnerre, Carmela; Segrestaa, Jerome; Buchmann, Stephan; Kohl, Christopher; Treiber, Alexander

2016-03-01

Macitentan is a novel dual endothelin receptor antagonist for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). It is metabolized by cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes, mainly CYP3A4, to its active metabolite ACT-132577. A physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed by combining observations from clinical studies and physicochemical parameters as well as absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion parameters determined in vitro. The model predicted the observed pharmacokinetics of macitentan and its active metabolite ACT-132577 after single and multiple dosing. It performed well in recovering the observed effect of the CYP3A4 inhibitors ketoconazole and cyclosporine, and the CYP3A4 inducer rifampicin, as well as in predicting interactions with S-warfarin and sildenafil. The model was robust enough to allow prospective predictions of macitentan-drug combinations not studied, including an alternative dosing regimen of ketoconazole and nine other CYP3A4-interacting drugs. Among these were the HIV drugs ritonavir and saquinavir, which were included because HIV infection is a known risk factor for the development of PAH. This example of the application of PBPK modeling to predict drug-drug interactions was used to support the labeling of macitentan (Opsumit).

Virtual DRI dataset development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hixson, Jonathan G.; Teaney, Brian P.; May, Christopher; Maurer, Tana; Nelson, Michael B.; Pham, Justin R.

2017-05-01

The U.S. Army RDECOM CERDEC NVESD MSD's target acquisition models have been used for many years by the military analysis community for sensor design, trade studies, and field performance prediction. This paper analyzes the results of perception tests performed to compare the results of a field DRI (Detection, Recognition, and Identification Test) performed in 2009 to current Soldier performance viewing the same imagery in a laboratory environment and simulated imagery of the same data set. The purpose of the experiment is to build a robust data set for use in the virtual prototyping of infrared sensors. This data set will provide a strong foundation relating, model predictions, field DRI results and simulated imagery.

Development and Validation of Decision Forest Model for Estrogen Receptor Binding Prediction of Chemicals Using Large Data Sets.

PubMed

Ng, Hui Wen; Doughty, Stephen W; Luo, Heng; Ye, Hao; Ge, Weigong; Tong, Weida; Hong, Huixiao

2015-12-21

Some chemicals in the environment possess the potential to interact with the endocrine system in the human body. Multiple receptors are involved in the endocrine system; estrogen receptor α (ERα) plays very important roles in endocrine activity and is the most studied receptor. Understanding and predicting estrogenic activity of chemicals facilitates the evaluation of their endocrine activity. Hence, we have developed a decision forest classification model to predict chemical binding to ERα using a large training data set of 3308 chemicals obtained from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Estrogenic Activity Database. We tested the model using cross validations and external data sets of 1641 chemicals obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's ToxCast project. The model showed good performance in both internal (92% accuracy) and external validations (∼ 70-89% relative balanced accuracies), where the latter involved the validations of the model across different ER pathway-related assays in ToxCast. The important features that contribute to the prediction ability of the model were identified through informative descriptor analysis and were related to current knowledge of ER binding. Prediction confidence analysis revealed that the model had both high prediction confidence and accuracy for most predicted chemicals. The results demonstrated that the model constructed based on the large training data set is more accurate and robust for predicting ER binding of chemicals than the published models that have been developed using much smaller data sets. The model could be useful for the evaluation of ERα-mediated endocrine activity potential of environmental chemicals.

A predictive model for assistive technology adoption for people with dementia.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuai; McClean, Sally I; Nugent, Chris D; Donnelly, Mark P; Galway, Leo; Scotney, Bryan W; Cleland, Ian

2014-01-01

Assistive technology has the potential to enhance the level of independence of people with dementia, thereby increasing the possibility of supporting home-based care. In general, people with dementia are reluctant to change; therefore, it is important that suitable assistive technologies are selected for them. Consequently, the development of predictive models that are able to determine a person's potential to adopt a particular technology is desirable. In this paper, a predictive adoption model for a mobile phone-based video streaming system, developed for people with dementia, is presented. Taking into consideration characteristics related to a person's ability, living arrangements, and preferences, this paper discusses the development of predictive models, which were based on a number of carefully selected data mining algorithms for classification. For each, the learning on different relevant features for technology adoption has been tested, in conjunction with handling the imbalance of available data for output classes. Given our focus on providing predictive tools that could be used and interpreted by healthcare professionals, models with ease-of-use, intuitive understanding, and clear decision making processes are preferred. Predictive models have, therefore, been evaluated on a multi-criterion basis: in terms of their prediction performance, robustness, bias with regard to two types of errors and usability. Overall, the model derived from incorporating a k-Nearest-Neighbour algorithm using seven features was found to be the optimal classifier of assistive technology adoption for people with dementia (prediction accuracy 0.84 ± 0.0242).

Analysis of genetic effects of nuclear-cytoplasmic interaction on quantitative traits: genetic model for diploid plants.

PubMed

Han, Lide; Yang, Jian; Zhu, Jun

2007-06-01

A genetic model was proposed for simultaneously analyzing genetic effects of nuclear, cytoplasm, and nuclear-cytoplasmic interaction (NCI) as well as their genotype by environment (GE) interaction for quantitative traits of diploid plants. In the model, the NCI effects were further partitioned into additive and dominance nuclear-cytoplasmic interaction components. Mixed linear model approaches were used for statistical analysis. On the basis of diallel cross designs, Monte Carlo simulations showed that the genetic model was robust for estimating variance components under several situations without specific effects. Random genetic effects were predicted by an adjusted unbiased prediction (AUP) method. Data on four quantitative traits (boll number, lint percentage, fiber length, and micronaire) in Upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) were analyzed as a worked example to show the effectiveness of the model.

Robust Online Monitoring for Calibration Assessment of Transmitters and Instrumentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coble, Jamie B.; Shumaker, Brent

Robust online monitoring (OLM) technologies are expected to enable the extension or elimination of periodic sensor calibration intervals in operating and new reactors. These advances in OLM technologies will improve the safety and reliability of current and planned nuclear power systems through improved accuracy and increased reliability of sensors used to monitor key parameters. In this article, we discuss an overview of research being performed within the Nuclear Energy Enabling Technologies (NEET)/Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation (ASI) program, for the development of OLM algorithms to use sensor outputs and, in combination with other available information, 1) determine whether one or moremore » sensors are out of calibration or failing and 2) replace a failing sensor with reliable, accurate sensor outputs. Algorithm development is focused on the following OLM functions: • Signal validation • Virtual sensing • Sensor response-time assessment These algorithms incorporate, at their base, a Gaussian Process-based uncertainty quantification (UQ) method. Various plant models (using kernel regression, GP, or hierarchical models) may be used to predict sensor responses under various plant conditions. These predicted responses can then be applied in fault detection (sensor output and response time) and in computing the correct value (virtual sensing) of a failing physical sensor. The methods being evaluated in this work can compute confidence levels along with the predicted sensor responses, and as a result, may have the potential for compensating for sensor drift in real-time (online recalibration). Evaluation was conducted using data from multiple sources (laboratory flow loops and plant data). Ongoing research in this project is focused on further evaluation of the algorithms, optimization for accuracy and computational efficiency, and integration into a suite of tools for robust OLM that are applicable to monitoring sensor calibration state in nuclear power plants.« less

Self-consistent core-pedestal transport simulations with neural network accelerated models

DOE PAGES

Meneghini, Orso; Smith, Sterling P.; Snyder, Philip B.; ...

2017-07-12

Fusion whole device modeling simulations require comprehensive models that are simultaneously physically accurate, fast, robust, and predictive. In this paper we describe the development of two neural-network (NN) based models as a means to perform a snon-linear multivariate regression of theory-based models for the core turbulent transport fluxes, and the pedestal structure. Specifically, we find that a NN-based approach can be used to consistently reproduce the results of the TGLF and EPED1 theory-based models over a broad range of plasma regimes, and with a computational speedup of several orders of magnitudes. These models are then integrated into a predictive workflowmore » that allows prediction with self-consistent core-pedestal coupling of the kinetic profiles within the last closed flux surface of the plasma. Finally, the NN paradigm is capable of breaking the speed-accuracy trade-off that is expected of traditional numerical physics models, and can provide the missing link towards self-consistent coupled core-pedestal whole device modeling simulations that are physically accurate and yet take only seconds to run.« less

Self-consistent core-pedestal transport simulations with neural network accelerated models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meneghini, Orso; Smith, Sterling P.; Snyder, Philip B.

Fusion whole device modeling simulations require comprehensive models that are simultaneously physically accurate, fast, robust, and predictive. In this paper we describe the development of two neural-network (NN) based models as a means to perform a snon-linear multivariate regression of theory-based models for the core turbulent transport fluxes, and the pedestal structure. Specifically, we find that a NN-based approach can be used to consistently reproduce the results of the TGLF and EPED1 theory-based models over a broad range of plasma regimes, and with a computational speedup of several orders of magnitudes. These models are then integrated into a predictive workflowmore » that allows prediction with self-consistent core-pedestal coupling of the kinetic profiles within the last closed flux surface of the plasma. Finally, the NN paradigm is capable of breaking the speed-accuracy trade-off that is expected of traditional numerical physics models, and can provide the missing link towards self-consistent coupled core-pedestal whole device modeling simulations that are physically accurate and yet take only seconds to run.« less

Self-consistent core-pedestal transport simulations with neural network accelerated models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meneghini, O.; Smith, S. P.; Snyder, P. B.; Staebler, G. M.; Candy, J.; Belli, E.; Lao, L.; Kostuk, M.; Luce, T.; Luda, T.; Park, J. M.; Poli, F.

2017-08-01

Fusion whole device modeling simulations require comprehensive models that are simultaneously physically accurate, fast, robust, and predictive. In this paper we describe the development of two neural-network (NN) based models as a means to perform a snon-linear multivariate regression of theory-based models for the core turbulent transport fluxes, and the pedestal structure. Specifically, we find that a NN-based approach can be used to consistently reproduce the results of the TGLF and EPED1 theory-based models over a broad range of plasma regimes, and with a computational speedup of several orders of magnitudes. These models are then integrated into a predictive workflow that allows prediction with self-consistent core-pedestal coupling of the kinetic profiles within the last closed flux surface of the plasma. The NN paradigm is capable of breaking the speed-accuracy trade-off that is expected of traditional numerical physics models, and can provide the missing link towards self-consistent coupled core-pedestal whole device modeling simulations that are physically accurate and yet take only seconds to run.

Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm.

PubMed

Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Poletto, Chiara; Ramasco, José J; Balcan, Duygu; Gonçalves, Bruno; Perra, Nicola; Colizza, Vittoria; Vespignani, Alessandro

2012-12-13

Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success criteria for different approaches. We used the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to generate stochastic simulations of epidemic spread worldwide, yielding (among other measures) the incidence and seeding events at a daily resolution for 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. Using a Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis, the model provided an estimate of the seasonal transmission potential during the early phase of the H1N1 pandemic and generated ensemble forecasts for the activity peaks in the northern hemisphere in the fall/winter wave. These results were validated against the real-life surveillance data collected in 48 countries, and their robustness assessed by focusing on 1) the peak timing of the pandemic; 2) the level of spatial resolution allowed by the model; and 3) the clinical attack rate and the effectiveness of the vaccine. In addition, we studied the effect of data incompleteness on the prediction reliability. Real-time predictions of the peak timing are found to be in good agreement with the empirical data, showing strong robustness to data that may not be accessible in real time (such as pre-exposure immunity and adherence to vaccination campaigns), but that affect the predictions for the attack rates. The timing and spatial unfolding of the pandemic are critically sensitive to the level of mobility data integrated into the model. Our results show that large-scale models can be used to provide valuable real-time forecasts of influenza spreading, but they require high-performance computing. The quality of the forecast depends on the level of data integration, thus stressing the need for high-quality data in population-based models, and of progressive updates of validated available empirical knowledge to inform these models.

Incorporating root hydraulic redistribution in CLM4.5: Effects on predicted site and global evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and water storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jinyun; Riley, William J.; Niu, Jie

2015-12-01

We implemented the Amenu-Kumar model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to simulate plant Root Hydraulic Redistribution (RHR) and analyzed its influence on CLM hydrology from site to global scales. We evaluated two numerical implementations: the first solved the coupled equations of root and soil water transport concurrently, while the second solved the two equations sequentially. Through sensitivity analysis, we demonstrate that the sequentially coupled implementation (SCI) is numerically incorrect, whereas the tightly coupled implementation (TCI) is numerically robust with numerical time steps varying from 1 to 30 min. At the site-level, we found the SCI approach resulted in better agreement with measured evapotranspiration (ET) at the AmeriFlux Blodgett Forest site, California, whereas the two approaches resulted in equally poor agreement between predicted and measured ET at the LBA Tapajos KM67 Mature Forest site in Amazon, Brazil. Globally, the SCI approach overestimated annual land ET by as much as 3.5 mm d-1 in some grid cells when compared to the TCI estimates. These comparisons demonstrate that TCI is a more robust numerical implementation of RHR. However, we found, even with TCI, that incorporating RHR resulted in worse agreement with measured soil moisture at both the Blodgett Forest and Tapajos sites and degraded the agreement between simulated terrestrial water storage anomaly and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations. We find including RHR in CLM4.5 improved ET predictions compared with the FLUXNET-MTE estimates north of 20° N but led to poorer predictions in the tropics. The biases in ET were robust and significant regardless of the four different pedotransfer functions or of the two meteorological forcing data sets we applied. We also found that the simulated water table was unrealistically sensitive to RHR. Therefore, we contend that further structural and data improvements are warranted to improve the hydrological dynamics in CLM4.5.

Incorporating root hydraulic redistribution in CLM4.5: Effects on predicted site and global evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and water storage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Jinyun; Riley, William J.; Niu, Jie

We implemented the Amenu-Kumar model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to simulate plant Root Hydraulic Redistribution (RHR) and analyzed its influence on CLM hydrology from site to global scales. We evaluated two numerical implementations: the first solved the coupled equations of root and soil water transport concurrently, while the second solved the two equations sequentially. Through sensitivity analysis, we demonstrate that the sequentially coupled implementation (SCI) is numerically incorrect, whereas the tightly coupled implementation (TCI) is numerically robust with numerical time steps varying from 1 to 30 min. At the site-level, we found the SCI approach resulted in bettermore » agreement with measured evapotranspiration (ET) at the AmeriFlux Blodgett Forest site, California, whereas the two approaches resulted in equally poor agreement between predicted and measured ET at the LBA Tapajos KM67 Mature Forest site in Amazon, Brazil. Globally, the SCI approach overestimated annual land ET by as much as 3.5 mm d -1 in some grid cells when compared to the TCI estimates. These comparisons demonstrate that TCI is a more robust numerical implementation of RHR. However, we found, even with TCI, that incorporating RHR resulted in worse agreement with measured soil moisture at both the Blodgett Forest and Tapajos sites and degraded the agreement between simulated terrestrial water storage anomaly and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations. We find including RHR in CLM4.5 improved ET predictions compared with the FLUXNET-MTE estimates north of 20° N but led to poorer predictions in the tropics. The biases in ET were robust and significant regardless of the four different pedotransfer functions or of the two meteorological forcing data sets we applied. We also found that the simulated water table was unrealistically sensitive to RHR. Therefore, we contend that further structural and data improvements are warranted to improve the hydrological dynamics in CLM4.5.« less

Incorporating root hydraulic redistribution in CLM4.5: Effects on predicted site and global evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and water storage

DOE PAGES

Tang, Jinyun; Riley, William J.; Niu, Jie

2015-11-12

We implemented the Amenu-Kumar model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to simulate plant Root Hydraulic Redistribution (RHR) and analyzed its influence on CLM hydrology from site to global scales. We evaluated two numerical implementations: the first solved the coupled equations of root and soil water transport concurrently, while the second solved the two equations sequentially. Through sensitivity analysis, we demonstrate that the sequentially coupled implementation (SCI) is numerically incorrect, whereas the tightly coupled implementation (TCI) is numerically robust with numerical time steps varying from 1 to 30 min. At the site-level, we found the SCI approach resulted in bettermore » agreement with measured evapotranspiration (ET) at the AmeriFlux Blodgett Forest site, California, whereas the two approaches resulted in equally poor agreement between predicted and measured ET at the LBA Tapajos KM67 Mature Forest site in Amazon, Brazil. Globally, the SCI approach overestimated annual land ET by as much as 3.5 mm d -1 in some grid cells when compared to the TCI estimates. These comparisons demonstrate that TCI is a more robust numerical implementation of RHR. However, we found, even with TCI, that incorporating RHR resulted in worse agreement with measured soil moisture at both the Blodgett Forest and Tapajos sites and degraded the agreement between simulated terrestrial water storage anomaly and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations. We find including RHR in CLM4.5 improved ET predictions compared with the FLUXNET-MTE estimates north of 20° N but led to poorer predictions in the tropics. The biases in ET were robust and significant regardless of the four different pedotransfer functions or of the two meteorological forcing data sets we applied. We also found that the simulated water table was unrealistically sensitive to RHR. Therefore, we contend that further structural and data improvements are warranted to improve the hydrological dynamics in CLM4.5.« less

Stop consonant voicing in young children's speech: Evidence from a cross-sectional study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganser, Emily

There are intuitive reasons to believe that speech-sound acquisition and language acquisition should be related in development. Surprisingly, only recently has research begun to parse just how the two might be related. This study investigated possible correlations between speech-sound acquisition and language acquisition, as part of a large-scale, longitudinal study of the relationship between different types of phonological development and vocabulary growth in the preschool years. Productions of voiced and voiceless stop-initial words were recorded from 96 children aged 28-39 months. Voice Onset Time (VOT, in ms) for each token context was calculated. A mixed-model logistic regression was calculated which predicted whether the sound was intended to be voiced or voiceless based on its VOT. This model estimated the slopes of the logistic function for each child. This slope was referred to as Robustness of Contrast (based on Holliday, Reidy, Beckman, and Edwards, 2015), defined as being the degree of categorical differentiation between the production of two speech sounds or classes of sounds, in this case, voiced and voiceless stops. Results showed a wide range of slopes for individual children, suggesting that slope-derived Robustness of Contrast could be a viable means of measuring a child's acquisition of the voicing contrast. Robustness of Contrast was then compared to traditional measures of speech and language skills to investigate whether there was any correlation between the production of stop voicing and broader measures of speech and language development. The Robustness of Contrast measure was found to correlate with all individual measures of speech and language, suggesting that it might indeed be predictive of later language skills.

External Evaluation of Two Fluconazole Infant Population Pharmacokinetic Models

PubMed Central

Hwang, Michael F.; Beechinor, Ryan J.; Wade, Kelly C.; Benjamin, Daniel K.; Smith, P. Brian; Hornik, Christoph P.; Capparelli, Edmund V.; Duara, Shahnaz; Kennedy, Kathleen A.; Cohen-Wolkowiez, Michael

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Fluconazole is an antifungal agent used for the treatment of invasive candidiasis, a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in premature infants. Population pharmacokinetic (PK) models of fluconazole in infants have been previously published by Wade et al. (Antimicrob Agents Chemother 52:4043–4049, 2008, https://doi.org/10.1128/AAC.00569-08) and Momper et al. (Antimicrob Agents Chemother 60:5539–5545, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1128/AAC.00963-16). Here we report the results of the first external evaluation of the predictive performance of both models. We used patient-level data from both studies to externally evaluate both PK models. The predictive performance of each model was evaluated using the model prediction error (PE), mean prediction error (MPE), mean absolute prediction error (MAPE), prediction-corrected visual predictive check (pcVPC), and normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE). The values of the parameters of each model were reestimated using both the external and merged data sets. When evaluated with the external data set, the model proposed by Wade et al. showed lower median PE, MPE, and MAPE (0.429 μg/ml, 41.9%, and 57.6%, respectively) than the model proposed by Momper et al. (2.45 μg/ml, 188%, and 195%, respectively). The values of the majority of reestimated parameters were within 20% of their respective original parameter values for all model evaluations. Our analysis determined that though both models are robust, the model proposed by Wade et al. had greater accuracy and precision than the model proposed by Momper et al., likely because it was derived from a patient population with a wider age range. This study highlights the importance of the external evaluation of infant population PK models. PMID:28893774

A two-hit model: behavioural investigation of the effect of combined neonatal MK-801 administration and isolation rearing in the rat.

PubMed

Lim, Ann Li; Taylor, David Alan; Malone, Daniel Thomas

2012-09-01

This study combined two neurodevelopmental manipulations, neonatal MK-801 treatment and isolation rearing, to produce a 'two-hit' model and determine whether two hits induce a more robust behavioural phenotype of an animal model of aspects of schizophrenia compared with individual manipulations alone. The effect of clozapine was also assessed. Male Sprague-Dawley rats received 0.2 mg/kg MK-801 or saline intraperitoneally (i.p.) once daily on postnatal days (PNDs) 7-10 and were assigned to group or isolation rearing at weaning (PND 21). From PND 77, they received a vehicle or 5 mg/kg clozapine (i.p.) treatment regimen and were subjected to three prepulse inhibition (PPI) tests, a locomotor activity assessment and a novel object recognition task. MK-801-treated rats reared in isolation displayed robust PPI disruptions which were consistently manifested in all three tests. PPI deficits were also detected in saline-treated rats reared in isolation but not in all tests. Only the two-hit rats demonstrated hyperlocomotion and impaired object recognition memory. Clozapine restored PPI anomalies in the two-hit rats. The two-hit model showed greater psychotic-like effects than either neonatal MK-801 or isolation rearing alone. The preliminary predictive validity shown with clozapine suggests this model may be useful for predicting the efficacy of putative antipsychotics.

Phase field model of the nanoscale evolution during the explosive crystallization phenomenon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardo, S. F.; Boninelli, S.; Cristiano, F.; Deretzis, I.; Grimaldi, M. G.; Huet, K.; Napolitani, E.; La Magna, A.

2018-03-01

Explosive crystallization is a well known phenomenon occurring due to the thermodynamic instability of strongly under-cooled liquids, which is particularly relevant in pulsed laser annealing processes of amorphous semiconductor materials due to the globally exothermic amorphous-to-liquid-to-crystal transition pathway. In spite of the assessed understanding of this phenomenon, quantitative predictions of the material kinetics promoted by explosive crystallization are hardly achieved due to the lack of a consistent model able to simulate the concurrent kinetics of the amorphous-liquid and liquid-crystal interfaces. Here, we propose a multi-well phase-field model specifically suited for the simulation of explosive crystallization induced by pulsed laser irradiation in the nanosecond time scale. The numerical implementation of the model is robust despite the discontinuous jumps of the interface speed induced by the phenomenon. The predictive potential of the simulations is demonstrated by means of comparisons of the modelling predictions with experimental data in terms of in situ reflectivity measurements and ex-situ micro-structural and chemical characterization.

Dynamical Model of Drug Accumulation in Bacteria: Sensitivity Analysis and Experimentally Testable Predictions

DOE PAGES

Vesselinova, Neda; Alexandrov, Boian; Wall, Michael E.

2016-11-08

We present a dynamical model of drug accumulation in bacteria. The model captures key features in experimental time courses on ofloxacin accumulation: initial uptake; two-phase response; and long-term acclimation. In combination with experimental data, the model provides estimates of import and export rates in each phase, the time of entry into the second phase, and the decrease of internal drug during acclimation. Global sensitivity analysis, local sensitivity analysis, and Bayesian sensitivity analysis of the model provide information about the robustness of these estimates, and about the relative importance of different parameters in determining the features of the accumulation time coursesmore » in three different bacterial species: Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The results lead to experimentally testable predictions of the effects of membrane permeability, drug efflux and trapping (e.g., by DNA binding) on drug accumulation. A key prediction is that a sudden increase in ofloxacin accumulation in both E. coli and S. aureus is accompanied by a decrease in membrane permeability.« less

Dynamical Model of Drug Accumulation in Bacteria: Sensitivity Analysis and Experimentally Testable Predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vesselinova, Neda; Alexandrov, Boian; Wall, Michael E.

We present a dynamical model of drug accumulation in bacteria. The model captures key features in experimental time courses on ofloxacin accumulation: initial uptake; two-phase response; and long-term acclimation. In combination with experimental data, the model provides estimates of import and export rates in each phase, the time of entry into the second phase, and the decrease of internal drug during acclimation. Global sensitivity analysis, local sensitivity analysis, and Bayesian sensitivity analysis of the model provide information about the robustness of these estimates, and about the relative importance of different parameters in determining the features of the accumulation time coursesmore » in three different bacterial species: Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The results lead to experimentally testable predictions of the effects of membrane permeability, drug efflux and trapping (e.g., by DNA binding) on drug accumulation. A key prediction is that a sudden increase in ofloxacin accumulation in both E. coli and S. aureus is accompanied by a decrease in membrane permeability.« less

Use of machine learning methods to reduce predictive error of groundwater models.

PubMed

Xu, Tianfang; Valocchi, Albert J; Choi, Jaesik; Amir, Eyal

2014-01-01

Quantitative analyses of groundwater flow and transport typically rely on a physically-based model, which is inherently subject to error. Errors in model structure, parameter and data lead to both random and systematic error even in the output of a calibrated model. We develop complementary data-driven models (DDMs) to reduce the predictive error of physically-based groundwater models. Two machine learning techniques, the instance-based weighting and support vector regression, are used to build the DDMs. This approach is illustrated using two real-world case studies of the Republican River Compact Administration model and the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie model. The two groundwater models have different hydrogeologic settings, parameterization, and calibration methods. In the first case study, cluster analysis is introduced for data preprocessing to make the DDMs more robust and computationally efficient. The DDMs reduce the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 82%, 60%, and 48%, respectively. In the second case study, the DDMs reduce the RMSE of the temporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 77%. It is further demonstrated that the effectiveness of the DDMs depends on the existence and extent of the structure in the error of the physically-based model. © 2013, National GroundWater Association.

FireProt: Energy- and Evolution-Based Computational Design of Thermostable Multiple-Point Mutants.

PubMed

Bednar, David; Beerens, Koen; Sebestova, Eva; Bendl, Jaroslav; Khare, Sagar; Chaloupkova, Radka; Prokop, Zbynek; Brezovsky, Jan; Baker, David; Damborsky, Jiri

2015-11-01

There is great interest in increasing proteins' stability to enhance their utility as biocatalysts, therapeutics, diagnostics and nanomaterials. Directed evolution is a powerful, but experimentally strenuous approach. Computational methods offer attractive alternatives. However, due to the limited reliability of predictions and potentially antagonistic effects of substitutions, only single-point mutations are usually predicted in silico, experimentally verified and then recombined in multiple-point mutants. Thus, substantial screening is still required. Here we present FireProt, a robust computational strategy for predicting highly stable multiple-point mutants that combines energy- and evolution-based approaches with smart filtering to identify additive stabilizing mutations. FireProt's reliability and applicability was demonstrated by validating its predictions against 656 mutations from the ProTherm database. We demonstrate that thermostability of the model enzymes haloalkane dehalogenase DhaA and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane dehydrochlorinase LinA can be substantially increased (ΔTm = 24°C and 21°C) by constructing and characterizing only a handful of multiple-point mutants. FireProt can be applied to any protein for which a tertiary structure and homologous sequences are available, and will facilitate the rapid development of robust proteins for biomedical and biotechnological applications.

A system for learning statistical motion patterns.

PubMed

Hu, Weiming; Xiao, Xuejuan; Fu, Zhouyu; Xie, Dan; Tan, Tieniu; Maybank, Steve

2006-09-01

Analysis of motion patterns is an effective approach for anomaly detection and behavior prediction. Current approaches for the analysis of motion patterns depend on known scenes, where objects move in predefined ways. It is highly desirable to automatically construct object motion patterns which reflect the knowledge of the scene. In this paper, we present a system for automatically learning motion patterns for anomaly detection and behavior prediction based on a proposed algorithm for robustly tracking multiple objects. In the tracking algorithm, foreground pixels are clustered using a fast accurate fuzzy K-means algorithm. Growing and prediction of the cluster centroids of foreground pixels ensure that each cluster centroid is associated with a moving object in the scene. In the algorithm for learning motion patterns, trajectories are clustered hierarchically using spatial and temporal information and then each motion pattern is represented with a chain of Gaussian distributions. Based on the learned statistical motion patterns, statistical methods are used to detect anomalies and predict behaviors. Our system is tested using image sequences acquired, respectively, from a crowded real traffic scene and a model traffic scene. Experimental results show the robustness of the tracking algorithm, the efficiency of the algorithm for learning motion patterns, and the encouraging performance of algorithms for anomaly detection and behavior prediction.

QSAR Modeling of Rat Acute Toxicity by Oral Exposure

PubMed Central

Zhu, Hao; Martin, Todd M.; Ye, Lin; Sedykh, Alexander; Young, Douglas M.; Tropsha, Alexander

2009-01-01

Few Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) studies have successfully modeled large, diverse rodent toxicity endpoints. In this study, a comprehensive dataset of 7,385 compounds with their most conservative lethal dose (LD50) values has been compiled. A combinatorial QSAR approach has been employed to develop robust and predictive models of acute toxicity in rats caused by oral exposure to chemicals. To enable fair comparison between the predictive power of models generated in this study versus a commercial toxicity predictor, TOPKAT (Toxicity Prediction by Komputer Assisted Technology), a modeling subset of the entire dataset was selected that included all 3,472 compounds used in the TOPKAT’s training set. The remaining 3,913 compounds, which were not present in the TOPKAT training set, were used as the external validation set. QSAR models of five different types were developed for the modeling set. The prediction accuracy for the external validation set was estimated by determination coefficient R2 of linear regression between actual and predicted LD50 values. The use of the applicability domain threshold implemented in most models generally improved the external prediction accuracy but expectedly led to the decrease in chemical space coverage; depending on the applicability domain threshold, R2 ranged from 0.24 to 0.70. Ultimately, several consensus models were developed by averaging the predicted LD50 for every compound using all 5 models. The consensus models afforded higher prediction accuracy for the external validation dataset with the higher coverage as compared to individual constituent models. The validated consensus LD50 models developed in this study can be used as reliable computational predictors of in vivo acute toxicity. PMID:19845371

Quantitative structure-activity relationship modeling of rat acute toxicity by oral exposure.

PubMed

Zhu, Hao; Martin, Todd M; Ye, Lin; Sedykh, Alexander; Young, Douglas M; Tropsha, Alexander

2009-12-01

Few quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) studies have successfully modeled large, diverse rodent toxicity end points. In this study, a comprehensive data set of 7385 compounds with their most conservative lethal dose (LD(50)) values has been compiled. A combinatorial QSAR approach has been employed to develop robust and predictive models of acute toxicity in rats caused by oral exposure to chemicals. To enable fair comparison between the predictive power of models generated in this study versus a commercial toxicity predictor, TOPKAT (Toxicity Prediction by Komputer Assisted Technology), a modeling subset of the entire data set was selected that included all 3472 compounds used in TOPKAT's training set. The remaining 3913 compounds, which were not present in the TOPKAT training set, were used as the external validation set. QSAR models of five different types were developed for the modeling set. The prediction accuracy for the external validation set was estimated by determination coefficient R(2) of linear regression between actual and predicted LD(50) values. The use of the applicability domain threshold implemented in most models generally improved the external prediction accuracy but expectedly led to the decrease in chemical space coverage; depending on the applicability domain threshold, R(2) ranged from 0.24 to 0.70. Ultimately, several consensus models were developed by averaging the predicted LD(50) for every compound using all five models. The consensus models afforded higher prediction accuracy for the external validation data set with the higher coverage as compared to individual constituent models. The validated consensus LD(50) models developed in this study can be used as reliable computational predictors of in vivo acute toxicity.

African American Female Offender's Use of Alternative and Traditional Health Services After Re-Entry: Examining the Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations.

PubMed

Oser, Carrie B; Bunting, Amanda M; Pullen, Erin; Stevens-Watkins, Danelle

2016-01-01

This is the first known study to use the Gelberg-Andersen Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations to predict African American women's use of three types of health services (alternative, hospitalization, and ambulatory) in the 18 months after release from prison. In the multivariate models, the most robust predictors of all three types of service utilization were in the vulnerable theoretical domains. Alternative health services were predicted by ethnic community membership, higher religiosity, and HIV/HCV. Hospitalizations were predicted by the lack of barriers to health care and disability. Ambulatory office visits were predicted by more experiences of gendered racism, a greater number of physical health problems, and HIV/HCV. Findings highlight the importance of cultural factors and HIV/HCV in obtaining both alternative and formal health care during community re-entry. Clinicians and policymakers should consider the salient role that the vulnerable domain plays in offender's accessing health services.

Practical quantum mechanics-based fragment methods for predicting molecular crystal properties.

PubMed

Wen, Shuhao; Nanda, Kaushik; Huang, Yuanhang; Beran, Gregory J O

2012-06-07

Significant advances in fragment-based electronic structure methods have created a real alternative to force-field and density functional techniques in condensed-phase problems such as molecular crystals. This perspective article highlights some of the important challenges in modeling molecular crystals and discusses techniques for addressing them. First, we survey recent developments in fragment-based methods for molecular crystals. Second, we use examples from our own recent research on a fragment-based QM/MM method, the hybrid many-body interaction (HMBI) model, to analyze the physical requirements for a practical and effective molecular crystal model chemistry. We demonstrate that it is possible to predict molecular crystal lattice energies to within a couple kJ mol(-1) and lattice parameters to within a few percent in small-molecule crystals. Fragment methods provide a systematically improvable approach to making predictions in the condensed phase, which is critical to making robust predictions regarding the subtle energy differences found in molecular crystals.

African American Female Offender’s Use of Alternative and Traditional Health Services After Re-Entry: Examining the Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations

PubMed Central

Oser, Carrie B.; Bunting, Amanda M.; Pullen, Erin; Stevens-Watkins, Danelle

2016-01-01

This is the first known study to use the Gelberg-Andersen Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations to predict African American women’s use of three types of health services (alternative, hospitalization, and ambulatory) in the 18 months after release from prison. In the multivariate models, the most robust predictors of all three types of service utilization were in the vulnerable theoretical domains. Alternative health services were predicted by ethnic community membership, higher religiosity, and HIV/HCV. Hospitalizations were predicted by the lack of barriers to health care and disability. Ambulatory office visits were predicted by more experiences of gendered racism, a greater number of physical health problems, and HIV/HCV. Findings highlight the importance of cultural factors and HIV/HCV in obtaining both alternative and formal health care during community re-entry. Clinicians and policy makers should consider the salient role that the vulnerable domain plays in offender’s accessing health services. PMID:27133515

Identifying a predictive model for response to atypical antipsychotic monotherapy treatment in south Indian schizophrenia patients.

PubMed

Gupta, Meenal; Moily, Nagaraj S; Kaur, Harpreet; Jajodia, Ajay; Jain, Sanjeev; Kukreti, Ritushree

2013-08-01

Atypical antipsychotic (AAP) drugs are the preferred choice of treatment for schizophrenia patients. Patients who do not show favorable response to AAP monotherapy are subjected to random prolonged therapeutic treatment with AAP multitherapy, typical antipsychotics or a combination of both. Therefore, prior identification of patients' response to drugs can be an important step in providing efficacious and safe therapeutic treatment. We thus attempted to elucidate a genetic signature which could predict patients' response to AAP monotherapy. Our logistic regression analyses indicated the probability that 76% patients carrying combination of four SNPs will not show favorable response to AAP therapy. The robustness of this prediction model was assessed using repeated 10-fold cross validation method, and the results across n-fold cross-validations (mean accuracy=71.91%; 95%CI=71.47-72.35) suggest high accuracy and reliability of the prediction model. Further validations of these results in large sample sets are likely to establish their clinical applicability. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of chemical biodegradability using support vector classifier optimized with differential evolution.

PubMed

Cao, Qi; Leung, K M

2014-09-22

Reliable computer models for the prediction of chemical biodegradability from molecular descriptors and fingerprints are very important for making health and environmental decisions. Coupling of the differential evolution (DE) algorithm with the support vector classifier (SVC) in order to optimize the main parameters of the classifier resulted in an improved classifier called the DE-SVC, which is introduced in this paper for use in chemical biodegradability studies. The DE-SVC was applied to predict the biodegradation of chemicals on the basis of extensive sample data sets and known structural features of molecules. Our optimization experiments showed that DE can efficiently find the proper parameters of the SVC. The resulting classifier possesses strong robustness and reliability compared with grid search, genetic algorithm, and particle swarm optimization methods. The classification experiments conducted here showed that the DE-SVC exhibits better classification performance than models previously used for such studies. It is a more effective and efficient prediction model for chemical biodegradability.

Optimal stomatal behaviour around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yan-Shih; Medlyn, Belinda E.; Duursma, Remko A.; Prentice, I. Colin; Wang, Han; Baig, Sofia; Eamus, Derek; de Dios, Victor Resco; Mitchell, Patrick; Ellsworth, David S.; de Beeck, Maarten Op; Wallin, Göran; Uddling, Johan; Tarvainen, Lasse; Linderson, Maj-Lena; Cernusak, Lucas A.; Nippert, Jesse B.; Ocheltree, Troy W.; Tissue, David T.; Martin-Stpaul, Nicolas K.; Rogers, Alistair; Warren, Jeff M.; de Angelis, Paolo; Hikosaka, Kouki; Han, Qingmin; Onoda, Yusuke; Gimeno, Teresa E.; Barton, Craig V. M.; Bennie, Jonathan; Bonal, Damien; Bosc, Alexandre; Löw, Markus; Macinins-Ng, Cate; Rey, Ana; Rowland, Lucy; Setterfield, Samantha A.; Tausz-Posch, Sabine; Zaragoza-Castells, Joana; Broadmeadow, Mark S. J.; Drake, John E.; Freeman, Michael; Ghannoum, Oula; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Kelly, Jeff W.; Kikuzawa, Kihachiro; Kolari, Pasi; Koyama, Kohei; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Meir, Patrick; Lola da Costa, Antonio C.; Mikkelsen, Teis N.; Salinas, Norma; Sun, Wei; Wingate, Lisa

2015-05-01

Stomatal conductance (gs) is a key land-surface attribute as it links transpiration, the dominant component of global land evapotranspiration, and photosynthesis, the driving force of the global carbon cycle. Despite the pivotal role of gs in predictions of global water and carbon cycle changes, a global-scale database and an associated globally applicable model of gs that allow predictions of stomatal behaviour are lacking. Here, we present a database of globally distributed gs obtained in the field for a wide range of plant functional types (PFTs) and biomes. We find that stomatal behaviour differs among PFTs according to their marginal carbon cost of water use, as predicted by the theory underpinning the optimal stomatal model and the leaf and wood economics spectrum. We also demonstrate a global relationship with climate. These findings provide a robust theoretical framework for understanding and predicting the behaviour of gs across biomes and across PFTs that can be applied to regional, continental and global-scale modelling of ecosystem productivity, energy balance and ecohydrological processes in a future changing climate.

Analytical mesoscale modeling of aeolian sand transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lämmel, Marc; Kroy, Klaus

2017-11-01

The mesoscale structure of aeolian sand transport determines a variety of natural phenomena studied in planetary and Earth science. We analyze it theoretically beyond the mean-field level, based on the grain-scale transport kinetics and splash statistics. A coarse-grained analytical model is proposed and verified by numerical simulations resolving individual grain trajectories. The predicted height-resolved sand flux and other important characteristics of the aeolian transport layer agree remarkably well with a comprehensive compilation of field and wind-tunnel data, suggesting that the model robustly captures the essential mesoscale physics. By comparing the predicted saturation length with field data for the minimum sand-dune size, we elucidate the importance of intermittent turbulent wind fluctuations for field measurements and reconcile conflicting previous models for this most enigmatic emergent aeolian scale.

Uncertainty analysis of least-cost modeling for designing wildlife linkages.

PubMed

Beier, Paul; Majka, Daniel R; Newell, Shawn L

2009-12-01

Least-cost models for focal species are widely used to design wildlife corridors. To evaluate the least-cost modeling approach used to develop 15 linkage designs in southern California, USA, we assessed robustness of the largest and least constrained linkage. Species experts parameterized models for eight species with weights for four habitat factors (land cover, topographic position, elevation, road density) and resistance values for each class within a factor (e.g., each class of land cover). Each model produced a proposed corridor for that species. We examined the extent to which uncertainty in factor weights and class resistance values affected two key conservation-relevant outputs, namely, the location and modeled resistance to movement of each proposed corridor. To do so, we compared the proposed corridor to 13 alternative corridors created with parameter sets that spanned the plausible ranges of biological uncertainty in these parameters. Models for five species were highly robust (mean overlap 88%, little or no increase in resistance). Although the proposed corridors for the other three focal species overlapped as little as 0% (mean 58%) of the alternative corridors, resistance in the proposed corridors for these three species was rarely higher than resistance in the alternative corridors (mean difference was 0.025 on a scale of 1 10; worst difference was 0.39). As long as the model had the correct rank order of resistance values and factor weights, our results suggest that the predicted corridor is robust to uncertainty. The three carnivore focal species, alone or in combination, were not effective umbrellas for the other focal species. The carnivore corridors failed to overlap the predicted corridors of most other focal species and provided relatively high resistance for the other focal species (mean increase of 2.7 resistance units). Least-cost modelers should conduct uncertainty analysis so that decision-makers can appreciate the potential impact of model uncertainty on conservation decisions. Our approach to uncertainty analysis (which can be called a worst-case scenario approach) is appropriate for complex models in which distribution of the input parameters cannot be specified.

Renormalization group independence of Cosmological Attractors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fumagalli, Jacopo

2017-06-01

The large class of inflationary models known as α- and ξ-attractors gives identical cosmological predictions at tree level (at leading order in inverse power of the number of efolds). Working with the renormalization group improved action, we show that these predictions are robust under quantum corrections. This means that for all the models considered the inflationary parameters (ns , r) are (nearly) independent on the Renormalization Group flow. The result follows once the field dependence of the renormalization scale, fixed by demanding the leading log correction to vanish, satisfies a quite generic condition. In Higgs inflation (which is a particular ξ-attractor) this is indeed the case; in the more general attractor models this is still ensured by the renormalizability of the theory in the effective field theory sense.

The predictive content of CBOE crude oil volatility index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hongtao; Liu, Li; Li, Xiaolei

2018-02-01

Volatility forecasting is an important issue in the area of econophysics. The information content of implied volatility for financial return volatility has been well documented in the literature but very few studies focus on oil volatility. In this paper, we show that the CBOE crude oil volatility index (OVX) has predictive ability for spot volatility of WTI and Brent oil returns, from both in-sample and out-of-sample perspectives. Including OVX-based implied volatility in GARCH-type volatility models can improve forecasting accuracy most of time. The predictability from OVX to spot volatility is also found for longer forecasting horizons of 5 days and 20 days. The simple GARCH(1,1) and fractionally integrated GARCH with OVX performs significantly better than the other OVX models and all 6 univariate GARCH-type models without OVX. Robustness test results suggest that OVX provides different information from as short-term interest rate.

Criteria for predicting the formation of single-phase high-entropy alloys

DOE PAGES

Troparevsky, M Claudia; Morris, James R..; Kent, Paul R.; ...

2015-03-15

High entropy alloys constitute a new class of materials whose very existence poses fundamental questions. Originally thought to be stabilized by the large entropy of mixing, these alloys have attracted attention due to their potential applications, yet no model capable of robustly predicting which combinations of elements will form a single-phase currently exists. Here we propose a model that, through the use of high-throughput computation of the enthalpies of formation of binary compounds, is able to confirm all known high-entropy alloys while rejecting similar alloys that are known to form multiple phases. Despite the increasing entropy, our model predicts thatmore » the number of potential single-phase multicomponent alloys decreases with an increasing number of components: out of more than two million possible 7-component alloys considered, fewer than twenty single-phase alloys are likely.« less

A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach to Predicting Flow in Ungauged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gronewold, A.; Alameddine, I.; Anderson, R. M.

2009-12-01

Recent innovative approaches to identifying and applying regression-based relationships between land use patterns (such as increasing impervious surface area and decreasing vegetative cover) and rainfall-runoff model parameters represent novel and promising improvements to predicting flow from ungauged basins. In particular, these approaches allow for predicting flows under uncertain and potentially variable future conditions due to rapid land cover changes, variable climate conditions, and other factors. Despite the broad range of literature on estimating rainfall-runoff model parameters, however, the absence of a robust set of modeling tools for identifying and quantifying uncertainties in (and correlation between) rainfall-runoff model parameters represents a significant gap in current hydrological modeling research. Here, we build upon a series of recent publications promoting novel Bayesian and probabilistic modeling strategies for quantifying rainfall-runoff model parameter estimation uncertainty. Our approach applies alternative measures of rainfall-runoff model parameter joint likelihood (including Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, among others) to simulate samples from the joint parameter posterior probability density function. We then use these correlated samples as response variables in a Bayesian hierarchical model with land use coverage data as predictor variables in order to develop a robust land use-based tool for forecasting flow in ungauged basins while accounting for, and explicitly acknowledging, parameter estimation uncertainty. We apply this modeling strategy to low-relief coastal watersheds of Eastern North Carolina, an area representative of coastal resource waters throughout the world because of its sensitive embayments and because of the abundant (but currently threatened) natural resources it hosts. Consequently, this area is the subject of several ongoing studies and large-scale planning initiatives, including those conducted through the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) total maximum daily load (TMDL) program, as well as those addressing coastal population dynamics and sea level rise. Our approach has several advantages, including the propagation of parameter uncertainty through a nonparametric probability distribution which avoids common pitfalls of fitting parameters and model error structure to a predetermined parametric distribution function. In addition, by explicitly acknowledging correlation between model parameters (and reflecting those correlations in our predictive model) our model yields relatively efficient prediction intervals (unlike those in the current literature which are often unnecessarily large, and may lead to overly-conservative management actions). Finally, our model helps improve understanding of the rainfall-runoff process by identifying model parameters (and associated catchment attributes) which are most sensitive to current and future land use change patterns. Disclaimer: Although this work was reviewed by EPA and approved for publication, it may not necessarily reflect official Agency policy.

The role of predictive uncertainty in the operational management of reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todini, E.

2014-09-01

The present work deals with the operational management of multi-purpose reservoirs, whose optimisation-based rules are derived, in the planning phase, via deterministic (linear and nonlinear programming, dynamic programming, etc.) or via stochastic (generally stochastic dynamic programming) approaches. In operation, the resulting deterministic or stochastic optimised operating rules are then triggered based on inflow predictions. In order to fully benefit from predictions, one must avoid using them as direct inputs to the reservoirs, but rather assess the "predictive knowledge" in terms of a predictive probability density to be operationally used in the decision making process for the estimation of expected benefits and/or expected losses. Using a theoretical and extremely simplified case, it will be shown why directly using model forecasts instead of the full predictive density leads to less robust reservoir management decisions. Moreover, the effectiveness and the tangible benefits for using the entire predictive probability density instead of the model predicted values will be demonstrated on the basis of the Lake Como management system, operational since 1997, as well as on the basis of a case study on the lake of Aswan.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mehrez, Loujaine; Ghanem, Roger; Aitharaju, Venkat

Design of non-crimp fabric (NCF) composites entails major challenges pertaining to (1) the complex fine-scale morphology of the constituents, (2) the manufacturing-produced inconsistency of this morphology spatially, and thus (3) the ability to build reliable, robust, and efficient computational surrogate models to account for this complex nature. Traditional approaches to construct computational surrogate models have been to average over the fluctuations of the material properties at different scale lengths. This fails to account for the fine-scale features and fluctuations in morphology, material properties of the constituents, as well as fine-scale phenomena such as damage and cracks. In addition, it failsmore » to accurately predict the scatter in macroscopic properties, which is vital to the design process and behavior prediction. In this work, funded in part by the Department of Energy, we present an approach for addressing these challenges by relying on polynomial chaos representations of both input parameters and material properties at different scales. Moreover, we emphasize the efficiency and robustness of integrating the polynomial chaos expansion with multiscale tools to perform multiscale assimilation, characterization, propagation, and prediction, all of which are necessary to construct the data-driven surrogate models required to design under the uncertainty of composites. These data-driven constructions provide an accurate map from parameters (and their uncertainties) at all scales and the system-level behavior relevant for design. While this perspective is quite general and applicable to all multiscale systems, NCF composites present a particular hierarchy of scales that permits the efficient implementation of these concepts.« less

Robust prediction of individual creative ability from brain functional connectivity.

PubMed

Beaty, Roger E; Kenett, Yoed N; Christensen, Alexander P; Rosenberg, Monica D; Benedek, Mathias; Chen, Qunlin; Fink, Andreas; Qiu, Jiang; Kwapil, Thomas R; Kane, Michael J; Silvia, Paul J

2018-01-30

People's ability to think creatively is a primary means of technological and cultural progress, yet the neural architecture of the highly creative brain remains largely undefined. Here, we employed a recently developed method in functional brain imaging analysis-connectome-based predictive modeling-to identify a brain network associated with high-creative ability, using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data acquired from 163 participants engaged in a classic divergent thinking task. At the behavioral level, we found a strong correlation between creative thinking ability and self-reported creative behavior and accomplishment in the arts and sciences ( r = 0.54). At the neural level, we found a pattern of functional brain connectivity related to high-creative thinking ability consisting of frontal and parietal regions within default, salience, and executive brain systems. In a leave-one-out cross-validation analysis, we show that this neural model can reliably predict the creative quality of ideas generated by novel participants within the sample. Furthermore, in a series of external validation analyses using data from two independent task fMRI samples and a large task-free resting-state fMRI sample, we demonstrate robust prediction of individual creative thinking ability from the same pattern of brain connectivity. The findings thus reveal a whole-brain network associated with high-creative ability comprised of cortical hubs within default, salience, and executive systems-intrinsic functional networks that tend to work in opposition-suggesting that highly creative people are characterized by the ability to simultaneously engage these large-scale brain networks.

Using Bayesian Networks for Candidate Generation in Consistency-based Diagnosis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Narasimhan, Sriram; Mengshoel, Ole

2008-01-01

Consistency-based diagnosis relies heavily on the assumption that discrepancies between model predictions and sensor observations can be detected accurately. When sources of uncertainty like sensor noise and model abstraction exist robust schemes have to be designed to make a binary decision on whether predictions are consistent with observations. This risks the occurrence of false alarms and missed alarms when an erroneous decision is made. Moreover when multiple sensors (with differing sensing properties) are available the degree of match between predictions and observations can be used to guide the search for fault candidates. In this paper we propose a novel approach to handle this problem using Bayesian networks. In the consistency- based diagnosis formulation, automatically generated Bayesian networks are used to encode a probabilistic measure of fit between predictions and observations. A Bayesian network inference algorithm is used to compute most probable fault candidates.

A novel method for predicting the power outputs of wave energy converters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingguang

2018-03-01

This paper focuses on realistically predicting the power outputs of wave energy converters operating in shallow water nonlinear waves. A heaving two-body point absorber is utilized as a specific calculation example, and the generated power of the point absorber has been predicted by using a novel method (a nonlinear simulation method) that incorporates a second order random wave model into a nonlinear dynamic filter. It is demonstrated that the second order random wave model in this article can be utilized to generate irregular waves with realistic crest-trough asymmetries, and consequently, more accurate generated power can be predicted by subsequently solving the nonlinear dynamic filter equation with the nonlinearly simulated second order waves as inputs. The research findings demonstrate that the novel nonlinear simulation method in this article can be utilized as a robust tool for ocean engineers in their design, analysis and optimization of wave energy converters.

Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture.

PubMed

Vermeulen, Sonja J; Challinor, Andrew J; Thornton, Philip K; Campbell, Bruce M; Eriyagama, Nishadi; Vervoort, Joost M; Kinyangi, James; Jarvis, Andy; Läderach, Peter; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Nicklin, Kathryn J; Hawkins, Ed; Smith, Daniel R

2013-05-21

We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop-climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.

Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture

PubMed Central

Vermeulen, Sonja J.; Challinor, Andrew J.; Thornton, Philip K.; Campbell, Bruce M.; Eriyagama, Nishadi; Vervoort, Joost M.; Kinyangi, James; Jarvis, Andy; Läderach, Peter; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Nicklin, Kathryn J.; Hawkins, Ed; Smith, Daniel R.

2013-01-01

We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop–climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty. PMID:23674681

Transgression as addiction: religiosity and moral disapproval as predictors of perceived addiction to pornography.

PubMed

Grubbs, Joshua B; Exline, Julie J; Pargament, Kenneth I; Hook, Joshua N; Carlisle, Robert D

2015-01-01

Perceived addiction to Internet pornography is increasingly a focus of empirical attention. The present study examined the role that religious belief and moral disapproval of pornography use play in the experience of perceived addiction to Internet pornography. Results from two studies in undergraduate samples (Study 1, N = 331; Study 2, N = 97) indicated that there was a robust positive relationship between religiosity and perceived addiction to pornography and that this relationship was mediated by moral disapproval of pornography use. These results persisted even when actual use of pornography was controlled. Furthermore, although religiosity was negatively predictive of acknowledging any pornography use, among pornography users, religiosity was unrelated to actual levels of use. A structural equation model from a web-based sample of adults (Study 3, N = 208) revealed similar results. Specifically, religiosity was robustly predictive of perceived addiction, even when relevant covariates (e.g., trait self-control, socially desirable responding, neuroticism, use of pornography) were held constant. In sum, the present study indicated that religiosity and moral disapproval of pornography use were robust predictors of perceived addiction to Internet pornography while being unrelated to actual levels of use among pornography consumers.

Advanced modelling, monitoring, and process control of bioconversion systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, Elliott C.

Production of fuels and chemicals from lignocellulosic biomass is an increasingly important area of research and industrialization throughout the world. In order to be competitive with fossil-based fuels and chemicals, maintaining cost-effectiveness is critical. Advanced process control (APC) and optimization methods could significantly reduce operating costs in the biorefining industry. Two reasons APC has previously proven challenging to implement for bioprocesses include: lack of suitable online sensor technology of key system components, and strongly nonlinear first principal models required to predict bioconversion behavior. To overcome these challenges batch fermentations with the acetogen Moorella thermoacetica were monitored with Raman spectroscopy for the conversion of real lignocellulosic hydrolysates and a kinetic model for the conversion of synthetic sugars was developed. Raman spectroscopy was shown to be effective in monitoring the fermentation of sugarcane bagasse and sugarcane straw hydrolysate, where univariate models predicted acetate concentrations with a root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 1.9 and 1.0 g L-1 for bagasse and straw, respectively. Multivariate partial least squares (PLS) models were employed to predict acetate, xylose, glucose, and total sugar concentrations for both hydrolysate fermentations. The PLS models were more robust than univariate models, and yielded a percent error of approximately 5% for both sugarcane bagasse and sugarcane straw. In addition, a screening technique was discussed for improving Raman spectra of hydrolysate samples prior to collecting fermentation data. Furthermore, a mechanistic model was developed to predict batch fermentation of synthetic glucose, xylose, and a mixture of the two sugars to acetate. The models accurately described the bioconversion process with an RMSEP of approximately 1 g L-1 for each model and provided insights into how kinetic parameters changed during dual substrate fermentation with diauxic growth. Model predictive control (MPC), an advanced process control strategy, is capable of utilizing nonlinear models and sensor feedback to provide optimal input while ensuring critical process constraints are met. Using the microorganism Saccharomyces cerevisiae, a commonly used microorganism for biofuel production, and work performed with M. thermoacetica, a nonlinear MPC was implemented on a continuous membrane cell-recycle bioreactor (MCRB) for the conversion of glucose to ethanol. The dilution rate was used to control the ethanol productivity of the system will maintaining total substrate conversion above the constraint of 98%. PLS multivariate models for glucose (RMSEP 1.5 g L-1) and ethanol (RMSEP 0.4 g L-1) were robust in predicting concentrations and a mechanistic kinetic model built accurately predicted continuous fermentation behavior. A setpoint trajectory, ranging from 2 - 4.5 g L-1 h-1 for productivity was closely tracked by the fermentation system using Raman measurements and an extended Kalman filter to estimate biomass concentrations. Overall, this work was able to demonstrate an effective approach for real-time monitoring and control of a complex fermentation system.

Genome-scale biological models for industrial microbial systems.

PubMed

Xu, Nan; Ye, Chao; Liu, Liming

2018-04-01

The primary aims and challenges associated with microbial fermentation include achieving faster cell growth, higher productivity, and more robust production processes. Genome-scale biological models, predicting the formation of an interaction among genetic materials, enzymes, and metabolites, constitute a systematic and comprehensive platform to analyze and optimize the microbial growth and production of biological products. Genome-scale biological models can help optimize microbial growth-associated traits by simulating biomass formation, predicting growth rates, and identifying the requirements for cell growth. With regard to microbial product biosynthesis, genome-scale biological models can be used to design product biosynthetic pathways, accelerate production efficiency, and reduce metabolic side effects, leading to improved production performance. The present review discusses the development of microbial genome-scale biological models since their emergence and emphasizes their pertinent application in improving industrial microbial fermentation of biological products.

A robust operational model for predicting where tropical cyclone waves damage coral reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puotinen, Marji; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; Beeden, Roger; Radford, Ben; Williams, Gareth J.

2016-05-01

Tropical cyclone (TC) waves can severely damage coral reefs. Models that predict where to find such damage (the ‘damage zone’) enable reef managers to: 1) target management responses after major TCs in near-real time to promote recovery at severely damaged sites; and 2) identify spatial patterns in historic TC exposure to explain habitat condition trajectories. For damage models to meet these needs, they must be valid for TCs of varying intensity, circulation size and duration. Here, we map damage zones for 46 TCs that crossed Australia’s Great Barrier Reef from 1985-2015 using three models - including one we develop which extends the capability of the others. We ground truth model performance with field data of wave damage from seven TCs of varying characteristics. The model we develop (4MW) out-performed the other models at capturing all incidences of known damage. The next best performing model (AHF) both under-predicted and over-predicted damage for TCs of various types. 4MW and AHF produce strikingly different spatial and temporal patterns of damage potential when used to reconstruct past TCs from 1985-2015. The 4MW model greatly enhances both of the main capabilities TC damage models provide to managers, and is useful wherever TCs and coral reefs co-occur.

A robust operational model for predicting where tropical cyclone waves damage coral reefs.

PubMed

Puotinen, Marji; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Beeden, Roger; Radford, Ben; Williams, Gareth J

2016-05-17

Tropical cyclone (TC) waves can severely damage coral reefs. Models that predict where to find such damage (the 'damage zone') enable reef managers to: 1) target management responses after major TCs in near-real time to promote recovery at severely damaged sites; and 2) identify spatial patterns in historic TC exposure to explain habitat condition trajectories. For damage models to meet these needs, they must be valid for TCs of varying intensity, circulation size and duration. Here, we map damage zones for 46 TCs that crossed Australia's Great Barrier Reef from 1985-2015 using three models - including one we develop which extends the capability of the others. We ground truth model performance with field data of wave damage from seven TCs of varying characteristics. The model we develop (4MW) out-performed the other models at capturing all incidences of known damage. The next best performing model (AHF) both under-predicted and over-predicted damage for TCs of various types. 4MW and AHF produce strikingly different spatial and temporal patterns of damage potential when used to reconstruct past TCs from 1985-2015. The 4MW model greatly enhances both of the main capabilities TC damage models provide to managers, and is useful wherever TCs and coral reefs co-occur.

Predicting enteric methane emission of dairy cows with milk Fourier-transform infrared spectra and gas chromatography-based milk fatty acid profiles.

PubMed

van Gastelen, S; Mollenhorst, H; Antunes-Fernandes, E C; Hettinga, K A; van Burgsteden, G G; Dijkstra, J; Rademaker, J L W

2018-06-01

The objective of the present study was to compare the prediction potential of milk Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) for CH 4 emissions of dairy cows with that of gas chromatography (GC)-based milk fatty acids (MFA). Data from 9 experiments with lactating Holstein-Friesian cows, with a total of 30 dietary treatments and 218 observations, were used. Methane emissions were measured for 3 consecutive days in climate respiration chambers and expressed as production (g/d), yield (g/kg of dry matter intake; DMI), and intensity (g/kg of fat- and protein-corrected milk; FPCM). Dry matter intake was 16.3 ± 2.18 kg/d (mean ± standard deviation), FPCM yield was 25.9 ± 5.06 kg/d, CH 4 production was 366 ± 53.9 g/d, CH 4 yield was 22.5 ± 2.10 g/kg of DMI, and CH 4 intensity was 14.4 ± 2.58 g/kg of FPCM. Milk was sampled during the same days and analyzed by GC and by FTIR. Multivariate GC-determined MFA-based and FTIR-based CH 4 prediction models were developed, and subsequently, the final CH 4 prediction models were evaluated with root mean squared error of prediction and concordance correlation coefficient analysis. Further, we performed a random 10-fold cross validation to calculate the performance parameters of the models (e.g., the coefficient of determination of cross validation). The final GC-determined MFA-based CH 4 prediction models estimate CH 4 production, yield, and intensity with a root mean squared error of prediction of 35.7 g/d, 1.6 g/kg of DMI, and 1.6 g/kg of FPCM and with a concordance correlation coefficient of 0.72, 0.59, and 0.77, respectively. The final FTIR-based CH 4 prediction models estimate CH 4 production, yield, and intensity with a root mean squared error of prediction of 43.2 g/d, 1.9 g/kg of DMI, and 1.7 g/kg of FPCM and with a concordance correlation coefficient of 0.52, 0.40, and 0.72, respectively. The GC-determined MFA-based prediction models described a greater part of the observed variation in CH 4 emission than did the FTIR-based models. The cross validation results indicate that all CH 4 prediction models (both GC-determined MFA-based and FTIR-based models) are robust; the difference between the coefficient of determination and the coefficient of determination of cross validation ranged from 0.01 to 0.07. The results indicate that GC-determined MFA have a greater potential than FTIR spectra to estimate CH 4 production, yield, and intensity. Both techniques hold potential but may not yet be ready to predict CH 4 emission of dairy cows in practice. Additional CH 4 measurements are needed to improve the accuracy and robustness of GC-determined MFA and FTIR spectra for CH 4 prediction. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reducing bias in survival under non-random temporary emigration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peñaloza, Claudia L.; Kendall, William L.; Langtimm, Catherine Ann

2014-01-01

Despite intensive monitoring, temporary emigration from the sampling area can induce bias severe enough for managers to discard life-history parameter estimates toward the terminus of the times series (terminal bias). Under random temporary emigration unbiased parameters can be estimated with CJS models. However, unmodeled Markovian temporary emigration causes bias in parameter estimates and an unobservable state is required to model this type of emigration. The robust design is most flexible when modeling temporary emigration, and partial solutions to mitigate bias have been identified, nonetheless there are conditions were terminal bias prevails. Long-lived species with high adult survival and highly variable non-random temporary emigration present terminal bias in survival estimates, despite being modeled with the robust design and suggested constraints. Because this bias is due to uncertainty about the fate of individuals that are undetected toward the end of the time series, solutions should involve using additional information on survival status or location of these individuals at that time. Using simulation, we evaluated the performance of models that jointly analyze robust design data and an additional source of ancillary data (predictive covariate on temporary emigration, telemetry, dead recovery, or auxiliary resightings) in reducing terminal bias in survival estimates. The auxiliary resighting and predictive covariate models reduced terminal bias the most. Additional telemetry data was effective at reducing terminal bias only when individuals were tracked for a minimum of two years. High adult survival of long-lived species made the joint model with recovery data ineffective at reducing terminal bias because of small-sample bias. The naïve constraint model (last and penultimate temporary emigration parameters made equal), was the least efficient, though still able to reduce terminal bias when compared to an unconstrained model. Joint analysis of several sources of data improved parameter estimates and reduced terminal bias. Efforts to incorporate or acquire such data should be considered by researchers and wildlife managers, especially in the years leading up to status assessments of species of interest. Simulation modeling is a very cost effective method to explore the potential impacts of using different sources of data to produce high quality demographic data to inform management.

Development of a brain MRI-based hidden Markov model for dementia recognition.

PubMed

Chen, Ying; Pham, Tuan D

2013-01-01

Dementia is an age-related cognitive decline which is indicated by an early degeneration of cortical and sub-cortical structures. Characterizing those morphological changes can help to understand the disease development and contribute to disease early prediction and prevention. But modeling that can best capture brain structural variability and can be valid in both disease classification and interpretation is extremely challenging. The current study aimed to establish a computational approach for modeling the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based structural complexity of the brain using the framework of hidden Markov models (HMMs) for dementia recognition. Regularity dimension and semi-variogram were used to extract structural features of the brains, and vector quantization method was applied to convert extracted feature vectors to prototype vectors. The output VQ indices were then utilized to estimate parameters for HMMs. To validate its accuracy and robustness, experiments were carried out on individuals who were characterized as non-demented and mild Alzheimer's diseased. Four HMMs were constructed based on the cohort of non-demented young, middle-aged, elder and demented elder subjects separately. Classification was carried out using a data set including both non-demented and demented individuals with a wide age range. The proposed HMMs have succeeded in recognition of individual who has mild Alzheimer's disease and achieved a better classification accuracy compared to other related works using different classifiers. Results have shown the ability of the proposed modeling for recognition of early dementia. The findings from this research will allow individual classification to support the early diagnosis and prediction of dementia. By using the brain MRI-based HMMs developed in our proposed research, it will be more efficient, robust and can be easily used by clinicians as a computer-aid tool for validating imaging bio-markers for early prediction of dementia.

Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Trigo, Isabel F.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo

2017-04-01

The land surface forms an essential part of the climate system. It interacts with the atmosphere through the exchange of water and energy and hence influences weather and climate, as well as their predictability. Correspondingly, the land surface model (LSM) is an essential part of any weather forecasting system. LSMs rely on partly poorly constrained parameters, due to sparse land surface observations. With the use of newly available land surface temperature observations, we show in this study that novel satellite-derived datasets help to improve LSM configuration, and hence can contribute to improved weather predictability. We use the Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme of Surface Exchanges over Land (HTESSEL) and validate it comprehensively against an array of Earth observation reference datasets, including the new land surface temperature product. This reveals satisfactory model performance in terms of hydrology, but poor performance in terms of land surface temperature. This is due to inconsistencies of process representations in the model as identified from an analysis of perturbed parameter simulations. We show that HTESSEL can be more robustly calibrated with multiple instead of single reference datasets as this mitigates the impact of the structural inconsistencies. Finally, performing coupled global weather forecasts we find that a more robust calibration of HTESSEL also contributes to improved weather forecast skills. In summary, new satellite-based Earth observations are shown to enhance the multi-dataset calibration of LSMs, thereby improving the representation of insufficiently captured processes, advancing weather predictability and understanding of climate system feedbacks. Orth, R., E. Dutra, I. F. Trigo, and G. Balsamo (2016): Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-628

Massive integration of diverse protein quality assessment methods to improve template based modeling in CASP11

PubMed Central

Cao, Renzhi; Bhattacharya, Debswapna; Adhikari, Badri; Li, Jilong; Cheng, Jianlin

2015-01-01

Model evaluation and selection is an important step and a big challenge in template-based protein structure prediction. Individual model quality assessment methods designed for recognizing some specific properties of protein structures often fail to consistently select good models from a model pool because of their limitations. Therefore, combining multiple complimentary quality assessment methods is useful for improving model ranking and consequently tertiary structure prediction. Here, we report the performance and analysis of our human tertiary structure predictor (MULTICOM) based on the massive integration of 14 diverse complementary quality assessment methods that was successfully benchmarked in the 11th Critical Assessment of Techniques of Protein Structure prediction (CASP11). The predictions of MULTICOM for 39 template-based domains were rigorously assessed by six scoring metrics covering global topology of Cα trace, local all-atom fitness, side chain quality, and physical reasonableness of the model. The results show that the massive integration of complementary, diverse single-model and multi-model quality assessment methods can effectively leverage the strength of single-model methods in distinguishing quality variation among similar good models and the advantage of multi-model quality assessment methods of identifying reasonable average-quality models. The overall excellent performance of the MULTICOM predictor demonstrates that integrating a large number of model quality assessment methods in conjunction with model clustering is a useful approach to improve the accuracy, diversity, and consequently robustness of template-based protein structure prediction. PMID:26369671

TU-G-303-03: Machine Learning to Improve Human Learning From Longitudinal Image Sets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeraraghavan, H.

‘Radiomics’ refers to studies that extract a large amount of quantitative information from medical imaging studies as a basis for characterizing a specific aspect of patient health. Radiomics models can be built to address a wide range of outcome predictions, clinical decisions, basic cancer biology, etc. For example, radiomics models can be built to predict the aggressiveness of an imaged cancer, cancer gene expression characteristics (radiogenomics), radiation therapy treatment response, etc. Technically, radiomics brings together quantitative imaging, computer vision/image processing, and machine learning. In this symposium, speakers will discuss approaches to radiomics investigations, including: longitudinal radiomics, radiomics combined with othermore » biomarkers (‘pan-omics’), radiomics for various imaging modalities (CT, MRI, and PET), and the use of registered multi-modality imaging datasets as a basis for radiomics. There are many challenges to the eventual use of radiomics-derived methods in clinical practice, including: standardization and robustness of selected metrics, accruing the data required, building and validating the resulting models, registering longitudinal data that often involve significant patient changes, reliable automated cancer segmentation tools, etc. Despite the hurdles, results achieved so far indicate the tremendous potential of this general approach to quantifying and using data from medical images. Specific applications of radiomics to be presented in this symposium will include: the longitudinal analysis of patients with low-grade gliomas; automatic detection and assessment of patients with metastatic bone lesions; image-based monitoring of patients with growing lymph nodes; predicting radiotherapy outcomes using multi-modality radiomics; and studies relating radiomics with genomics in lung cancer and glioblastoma. Learning Objectives: Understanding the basic image features that are often used in radiomic models. Understanding requirements for reliable radiomic models, including robustness of metrics, adequate predictive accuracy, and generalizability. Understanding the methodology behind radiomic-genomic (’radiogenomics’) correlations. Research supported by NIH (US), CIHR (Canada), and NSERC (Canada)« less

TU-G-303-04: Radiomics and the Coming Pan-Omics Revolution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

El Naqa, I.

‘Radiomics’ refers to studies that extract a large amount of quantitative information from medical imaging studies as a basis for characterizing a specific aspect of patient health. Radiomics models can be built to address a wide range of outcome predictions, clinical decisions, basic cancer biology, etc. For example, radiomics models can be built to predict the aggressiveness of an imaged cancer, cancer gene expression characteristics (radiogenomics), radiation therapy treatment response, etc. Technically, radiomics brings together quantitative imaging, computer vision/image processing, and machine learning. In this symposium, speakers will discuss approaches to radiomics investigations, including: longitudinal radiomics, radiomics combined with othermore » biomarkers (‘pan-omics’), radiomics for various imaging modalities (CT, MRI, and PET), and the use of registered multi-modality imaging datasets as a basis for radiomics. There are many challenges to the eventual use of radiomics-derived methods in clinical practice, including: standardization and robustness of selected metrics, accruing the data required, building and validating the resulting models, registering longitudinal data that often involve significant patient changes, reliable automated cancer segmentation tools, etc. Despite the hurdles, results achieved so far indicate the tremendous potential of this general approach to quantifying and using data from medical images. Specific applications of radiomics to be presented in this symposium will include: the longitudinal analysis of patients with low-grade gliomas; automatic detection and assessment of patients with metastatic bone lesions; image-based monitoring of patients with growing lymph nodes; predicting radiotherapy outcomes using multi-modality radiomics; and studies relating radiomics with genomics in lung cancer and glioblastoma. Learning Objectives: Understanding the basic image features that are often used in radiomic models. Understanding requirements for reliable radiomic models, including robustness of metrics, adequate predictive accuracy, and generalizability. Understanding the methodology behind radiomic-genomic (’radiogenomics’) correlations. Research supported by NIH (US), CIHR (Canada), and NSERC (Canada)« less

Microstructure and rheology of thermoreversible nanoparticle gels.

PubMed

Ramakrishnan, S; Zukoski, C F

2006-08-29

Naïve mode coupling theory is applied to particles interacting with short-range Yukawa attractions. Model results for the location of the gel line and the modulus of the resulting gels are reduced to algebraic equations capturing the effects of the range and strength of attraction. This model is then applied to thermo reversible gels composed of octadecyl silica particles suspended in decalin. The application of the model to the experimental system requires linking the experimental variable controlling strength of attraction, temperature, to the model strength of attraction. With this link, the model predicts temperature and volume fraction dependencies of gelation and modulus with five parameters: particle size, particle volume fraction, overlap volume of surface hairs, and theta temperature. In comparing model predictions with experimental results, we first observe that in these thermal gels there is no evidence of clustering as has been reported in depletion gels. One consequence of this observation is that there are no additional adjustable parameters required to make quantitative comparisons between experimental results and model predictions. Our results indicate that the naïve mode coupling approach taken here in conjunction with a model linking temperature to strength of attraction provides a robust approach for making quantitative predictions of gel mechanical properties. Extension of model predictions to additional experimental systems requires linking experimental variables to the Yukawa strength and range of attraction.

Scientific rigor through videogames.

PubMed

Treuille, Adrien; Das, Rhiju

2014-11-01

Hypothesis-driven experimentation - the scientific method - can be subverted by fraud, irreproducibility, and lack of rigorous predictive tests. A robust solution to these problems may be the 'massive open laboratory' model, recently embodied in the internet-scale videogame EteRNA. Deploying similar platforms throughout biology could enforce the scientific method more broadly. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using spatio-temporal modeling to predict long-term exposure to black smoke at fine spatial and temporal scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dadvand, Payam; Rushton, Stephen; Diggle, Peter J.; Goffe, Louis; Rankin, Judith; Pless-Mulloli, Tanja

2011-01-01

Whilst exposure to air pollution is linked to a wide range of adverse health outcomes, assessing levels of this exposure has remained a challenge. This study reports a modeling approach for the estimation of weekly levels of ambient black smoke (BS) at residential postcodes across Northeast England (2055 km 2) over a 12 year period (1985-1996). A two-stage modeling strategy was developed using monitoring data on BS together with a range of covariates including data on traffic, population density, industrial activity, land cover (remote sensing), and meteorology. The first stage separates the temporal trend in BS for the region as a whole from within-region spatial variation and the second stage is a linear model which predicts BS levels at all locations in the region using spatially referenced covariate data as predictors and the regional predicted temporal trend as an offset. Traffic and land cover predictors were included in the final model, which predicted 70% of the spatio-temporal variation in BS across the study region over the study period. This modeling approach appears to provide a robust way of estimating exposure to BS at an inter-urban scale.

Set-membership fault detection under noisy environment with application to the detection of abnormal aircraft control surface positions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Houda Thabet, Rihab; Combastel, Christophe; Raïssi, Tarek; Zolghadri, Ali

2015-09-01

The paper develops a set membership detection methodology which is applied to the detection of abnormal positions of aircraft control surfaces. Robust and early detection of such abnormal positions is an important issue for early system reconfiguration and overall optimisation of aircraft design. In order to improve fault sensitivity while ensuring a high level of robustness, the method combines a data-driven characterisation of noise and a model-driven approach based on interval prediction. The efficiency of the proposed methodology is illustrated through simulation results obtained based on data recorded in several flight scenarios of a highly representative aircraft benchmark.

QSPR models for predicting generator-column-derived octanol/water and octanol/air partition coefficients of polychlorinated biphenyls.

PubMed

Yuan, Jintao; Yu, Shuling; Zhang, Ting; Yuan, Xuejie; Cao, Yunyuan; Yu, Xingchen; Yang, Xuan; Yao, Wu

2016-06-01

Octanol/water (K(OW)) and octanol/air (K(OA)) partition coefficients are two important physicochemical properties of organic substances. In current practice, K(OW) and K(OA) values of some polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are measured using generator column method. Quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models can serve as a valuable alternative method of replacing or reducing experimental steps in the determination of K(OW) and K(OA). In this paper, two different methods, i.e., multiple linear regression based on dragon descriptors and hologram quantitative structure-activity relationship, were used to predict generator-column-derived log K(OW) and log K(OA) values of PCBs. The predictive ability of the developed models was validated using a test set, and the performances of all generated models were compared with those of three previously reported models. All results indicated that the proposed models were robust and satisfactory and can thus be used as alternative models for the rapid assessment of the K(OW) and K(OA) of PCBs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Software reliability studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoppa, Mary Ann; Wilson, Larry W.

1994-01-01

There are many software reliability models which try to predict future performance of software based on data generated by the debugging process. Our research has shown that by improving the quality of the data one can greatly improve the predictions. We are working on methodologies which control some of the randomness inherent in the standard data generation processes in order to improve the accuracy of predictions. Our contribution is twofold in that we describe an experimental methodology using a data structure called the debugging graph and apply this methodology to assess the robustness of existing models. The debugging graph is used to analyze the effects of various fault recovery orders on the predictive accuracy of several well-known software reliability algorithms. We found that, along a particular debugging path in the graph, the predictive performance of different models can vary greatly. Similarly, just because a model 'fits' a given path's data well does not guarantee that the model would perform well on a different path. Further we observed bug interactions and noted their potential effects on the predictive process. We saw that not only do different faults fail at different rates, but that those rates can be affected by the particular debugging stage at which the rates are evaluated. Based on our experiment, we conjecture that the accuracy of a reliability prediction is affected by the fault recovery order as well as by fault interaction.

Development of bovine serum albumin-water partition coefficients predictive models for ionogenic organic chemicals based on chemical form adjusted descriptors.

PubMed

Ding, Feng; Yang, Xianhai; Chen, Guosong; Liu, Jining; Shi, Lili; Chen, Jingwen

2017-10-01

The partition coefficients between bovine serum albumin (BSA) and water (K BSA/w ) for ionogenic organic chemicals (IOCs) were different greatly from those of neutral organic chemicals (NOCs). For NOCs, several excellent models were developed to predict their logK BSA/w . However, it was found that the conventional descriptors are inappropriate for modeling logK BSA/w of IOCs. Thus, alternative approaches are urgently needed to develop predictive models for K BSA/w of IOCs. In this study, molecular descriptors that can be used to characterize the ionization effects (e.g. chemical form adjusted descriptors) were calculated and used to develop predictive models for logK BSA/w of IOCs. The models developed had high goodness-of-fit, robustness, and predictive ability. The predictor variables selected to construct the models included the chemical form adjusted averages of the negative potentials on the molecular surface (V s-adj - ), the chemical form adjusted molecular dipole moment (dipolemoment adj ), the logarithm of the n-octanol/water distribution coefficient (logD). As these molecular descriptors can be calculated from their molecular structures directly, the developed model can be easily used to fill the logK BSA/w data gap for other IOCs within the applicability domain. Furthermore, the chemical form adjusted descriptors calculated in this study also could be used to construct predictive models on other endpoints of IOCs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Can We Predict Individual Combined Benefit and Harm of Therapy? Warfarin Therapy for Atrial Fibrillation as a Test Case

PubMed Central

Li, Guowei; Thabane, Lehana; Delate, Thomas; Witt, Daniel M.; Levine, Mitchell A. H.; Cheng, Ji; Holbrook, Anne

2016-01-01

Objectives To construct and validate a prediction model for individual combined benefit and harm outcomes (stroke with no major bleeding, major bleeding with no stroke, neither event, or both) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) with and without warfarin therapy. Methods Using the Kaiser Permanente Colorado databases, we included patients newly diagnosed with AF between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2012 for model construction and validation. The primary outcome was a prediction model of composite of stroke or major bleeding using polytomous logistic regression (PLR) modelling. The secondary outcome was a prediction model of all-cause mortality using the Cox regression modelling. Results We included 9074 patients with 4537 and 4537 warfarin users and non-users, respectively. In the derivation cohort (n = 4632), there were 136 strokes (2.94%), 280 major bleedings (6.04%) and 1194 deaths (25.78%) occurred. In the prediction models, warfarin use was not significantly associated with risk of stroke, but increased the risk of major bleeding and decreased the risk of death. Both the PLR and Cox models were robust, internally and externally validated, and with acceptable model performances. Conclusions In this study, we introduce a new methodology for predicting individual combined benefit and harm outcomes associated with warfarin therapy for patients with AF. Should this approach be validated in other patient populations, it has potential advantages over existing risk stratification approaches as a patient-physician aid for shared decision-making PMID:27513986

Vehicle active steering control research based on two-DOF robust internal model control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jian; Liu, Yahui; Wang, Fengbo; Bao, Chunjiang; Sun, Qun; Zhao, Youqun

2016-07-01

Because of vehicle's external disturbances and model uncertainties, robust control algorithms have obtained popularity in vehicle stability control. The robust control usually gives up performance in order to guarantee the robustness of the control algorithm, therefore an improved robust internal model control(IMC) algorithm blending model tracking and internal model control is put forward for active steering system in order to reach high performance of yaw rate tracking with certain robustness. The proposed algorithm inherits the good model tracking ability of the IMC control and guarantees robustness to model uncertainties. In order to separate the design process of model tracking from the robustness design process, the improved 2 degree of freedom(DOF) robust internal model controller structure is given from the standard Youla parameterization. Simulations of double lane change maneuver and those of crosswind disturbances are conducted for evaluating the robust control algorithm, on the basis of a nonlinear vehicle simulation model with a magic tyre model. Results show that the established 2-DOF robust IMC method has better model tracking ability and a guaranteed level of robustness and robust performance, which can enhance the vehicle stability and handling, regardless of variations of the vehicle model parameters and the external crosswind interferences. Contradiction between performance and robustness of active steering control algorithm is solved and higher control performance with certain robustness to model uncertainties is obtained.

Testing the applicability of a benthic foraminiferal-based transfer function for the reconstruction of paleowater depth changes in Rhodes (Greece) during the early Pleistocene.

PubMed

Milker, Yvonne; Weinkauf, Manuel F G; Titschack, Jürgen; Freiwald, Andre; Krüger, Stefan; Jorissen, Frans J; Schmiedl, Gerhard

2017-01-01

We present paleo-water depth reconstructions for the Pefka E section deposited on the island of Rhodes (Greece) during the early Pleistocene. For these reconstructions, a transfer function (TF) using modern benthic foraminifera surface samples from the Adriatic and Western Mediterranean Seas has been developed. The TF model gives an overall predictive accuracy of ~50 m over a water depth range of ~1200 m. Two separate TF models for shallower and deeper water depth ranges indicate a good predictive accuracy of 9 m for shallower water depths (0-200 m) but far less accuracy of 130 m for deeper water depths (200-1200 m) due to uneven sampling along the water depth gradient. To test the robustness of the TF, we randomly selected modern samples to develop random TFs, showing that the model is robust for water depths between 20 and 850 m while greater water depths are underestimated. We applied the TF to the Pefka E fossil data set. The goodness-of-fit statistics showed that most fossil samples have a poor to extremely poor fit to water depth. We interpret this as a consequence of a lack of modern analogues for the fossil samples and removed all samples with extremely poor fit. To test the robustness and significance of the reconstructions, we compared them to reconstructions from an alternative TF model based on the modern analogue technique and applied the randomization TF test. We found our estimates to be robust and significant at the 95% confidence level, but we also observed that our estimates are strongly overprinted by orbital, precession-driven changes in paleo-productivity and corrected our estimates by filtering out the precession-related component. We compared our corrected record to reconstructions based on a modified plankton/benthos (P/B) ratio, excluding infaunal species, and to stable oxygen isotope data from the same section, as well as to paleo-water depth estimates for the Lindos Bay Formation of other sediment sections of Rhodes. These comparisons indicate that our orbital-corrected reconstructions are reasonable and reflect major tectonic movements of Rhodes during the early Pleistocene.

Testing the applicability of a benthic foraminiferal-based transfer function for the reconstruction of paleowater depth changes in Rhodes (Greece) during the early Pleistocene

PubMed Central

Weinkauf, Manuel F. G.; Titschack, Jürgen; Freiwald, Andre; Krüger, Stefan; Jorissen, Frans J.; Schmiedl, Gerhard

2017-01-01

We present paleo-water depth reconstructions for the Pefka E section deposited on the island of Rhodes (Greece) during the early Pleistocene. For these reconstructions, a transfer function (TF) using modern benthic foraminifera surface samples from the Adriatic and Western Mediterranean Seas has been developed. The TF model gives an overall predictive accuracy of ~50 m over a water depth range of ~1200 m. Two separate TF models for shallower and deeper water depth ranges indicate a good predictive accuracy of 9 m for shallower water depths (0–200 m) but far less accuracy of 130 m for deeper water depths (200–1200 m) due to uneven sampling along the water depth gradient. To test the robustness of the TF, we randomly selected modern samples to develop random TFs, showing that the model is robust for water depths between 20 and 850 m while greater water depths are underestimated. We applied the TF to the Pefka E fossil data set. The goodness-of-fit statistics showed that most fossil samples have a poor to extremely poor fit to water depth. We interpret this as a consequence of a lack of modern analogues for the fossil samples and removed all samples with extremely poor fit. To test the robustness and significance of the reconstructions, we compared them to reconstructions from an alternative TF model based on the modern analogue technique and applied the randomization TF test. We found our estimates to be robust and significant at the 95% confidence level, but we also observed that our estimates are strongly overprinted by orbital, precession-driven changes in paleo-productivity and corrected our estimates by filtering out the precession-related component. We compared our corrected record to reconstructions based on a modified plankton/benthos (P/B) ratio, excluding infaunal species, and to stable oxygen isotope data from the same section, as well as to paleo-water depth estimates for the Lindos Bay Formation of other sediment sections of Rhodes. These comparisons indicate that our orbital-corrected reconstructions are reasonable and reflect major tectonic movements of Rhodes during the early Pleistocene. PMID:29166653

Robustness of neuroprosthetic decoding algorithms.

PubMed

Serruya, Mijail; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas; Fellows, Matthew; Paninski, Liam; Donoghue, John

2003-03-01

We assessed the ability of two algorithms to predict hand kinematics from neural activity as a function of the amount of data used to determine the algorithm parameters. Using chronically implanted intracortical arrays, single- and multineuron discharge was recorded during trained step tracking and slow continuous tracking tasks in macaque monkeys. The effect of increasing the amount of data used to build a neural decoding model on the ability of that model to predict hand kinematics accurately was examined. We evaluated how well a maximum-likelihood model classified discrete reaching directions and how well a linear filter model reconstructed continuous hand positions over time within and across days. For each of these two models we asked two questions: (1) How does classification performance change as the amount of data the model is built upon increases? (2) How does varying the time interval between the data used to build the model and the data used to test the model affect reconstruction? Less than 1 min of data for the discrete task (8 to 13 neurons) and less than 3 min (8 to 18 neurons) for the continuous task were required to build optimal models. Optimal performance was defined by a cost function we derived that reflects both the ability of the model to predict kinematics accurately and the cost of taking more time to build such models. For both the maximum-likelihood classifier and the linear filter model, increasing the duration between the time of building and testing the model within a day did not cause any significant trend of degradation or improvement in performance. Linear filters built on one day and tested on neural data on a subsequent day generated error-measure distributions that were not significantly different from those generated when the linear filters were tested on neural data from the initial day (p<0.05, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test). These data show that only a small amount of data from a limited number of cortical neurons appears to be necessary to construct robust models to predict kinematic parameters for the subsequent hours. Motor-control signals derived from neurons in motor cortex can be reliably acquired for use in neural prosthetic devices. Adequate decoding models can be built rapidly from small numbers of cells and maintained with daily calibration sessions.

Self-tuning bistable parametric feedback oscillator: Near-optimal amplitude maximization without model information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, David J.; Sutas, Andrius; Vijayakumar, Sethu

2017-01-01

Theory predicts that parametrically excited oscillators, tuned to operate under resonant condition, are capable of large-amplitude oscillation useful in diverse applications, such as signal amplification, communication, and analog computation. However, due to amplitude saturation caused by nonlinearity, lack of robustness to model uncertainty, and limited sensitivity to parameter modulation, these oscillators require fine-tuning and strong modulation to generate robust large-amplitude oscillation. Here we present a principle of self-tuning parametric feedback excitation that alleviates the above-mentioned limitations. This is achieved using a minimalistic control implementation that performs (i) self-tuning (slow parameter adaptation) and (ii) feedback pumping (fast parameter modulation), without sophisticated signal processing past observations. The proposed approach provides near-optimal amplitude maximization without requiring model-based control computation, previously perceived inevitable to implement optimal control principles in practical application. Experimental implementation of the theory shows that the oscillator self-tunes itself near to the onset of dynamic bifurcation to achieve extreme sensitivity to small resonant parametric perturbations. As a result, it achieves large-amplitude oscillations by capitalizing on the effect of nonlinearity, despite substantial model uncertainties and strong unforeseen external perturbations. We envision the present finding to provide an effective and robust approach to parametric excitation when it comes to real-world application.

A Robust Feedforward Model of the Olfactory System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yilun; Sharpee, Tatyana

Most natural odors have sparse molecular composition. This makes the principles of compressing sensing potentially relevant to the structure of the olfactory code. Yet, the largely feedforward organization of the olfactory system precludes reconstruction using standard compressed sensing algorithms. To resolve this problem, recent theoretical work has proposed that signal reconstruction could take place as a result of a low dimensional dynamical system converging to one of its attractor states. The dynamical aspects of optimization, however, would slow down odor recognition and were also found to be susceptible to noise. Here we describe a feedforward model of the olfactory system that achieves both strong compression and fast reconstruction that is also robust to noise. A key feature of the proposed model is a specific relationship between how odors are represented at the glomeruli stage, which corresponds to a compression, and the connections from glomeruli to Kenyon cells, which in the model corresponds to reconstruction. We show that provided this specific relationship holds true, the reconstruction will be both fast and robust to noise, and in particular to failure of glomeruli. The predicted connectivity rate from glomeruli to the Kenyon cells can be tested experimentally. This research was supported by James S. McDonnell Foundation, NSF CAREER award IIS-1254123, NSF Ideas Lab Collaborative Research IOS 1556388.

Predictive accuracy of particle filtering in dynamic models supporting outbreak projections.

PubMed

Safarishahrbijari, Anahita; Teyhouee, Aydin; Waldner, Cheryl; Liu, Juxin; Osgood, Nathaniel D

2017-09-26

While a new generation of computational statistics algorithms and availability of data streams raises the potential for recurrently regrounding dynamic models with incoming observations, the effectiveness of such arrangements can be highly subject to specifics of the configuration (e.g., frequency of sampling and representation of behaviour change), and there has been little attempt to identify effective configurations. Combining dynamic models with particle filtering, we explored a solution focusing on creating quickly formulated models regrounded automatically and recurrently as new data becomes available. Given a latent underlying case count, we assumed that observed incident case counts followed a negative binomial distribution. In accordance with the condensation algorithm, each such observation led to updating of particle weights. We evaluated the effectiveness of various particle filtering configurations against each other and against an approach without particle filtering according to the accuracy of the model in predicting future prevalence, given data to a certain point and a norm-based discrepancy metric. We examined the effectiveness of particle filtering under varying times between observations, negative binomial dispersion parameters, and rates with which the contact rate could evolve. We observed that more frequent observations of empirical data yielded super-linearly improved accuracy in model predictions. We further found that for the data studied here, the most favourable assumptions to make regarding the parameters associated with the negative binomial distribution and changes in contact rate were robust across observation frequency and the observation point in the outbreak. Combining dynamic models with particle filtering can perform well in projecting future evolution of an outbreak. Most importantly, the remarkable improvements in predictive accuracy resulting from more frequent sampling suggest that investments to achieve efficient reporting mechanisms may be more than paid back by improved planning capacity. The robustness of the results on particle filter configuration in this case study suggests that it may be possible to formulate effective standard guidelines and regularized approaches for such techniques in particular epidemiological contexts. Most importantly, the work tentatively suggests potential for health decision makers to secure strong guidance when anticipating outbreak evolution for emerging infectious diseases by combining even very rough models with particle filtering method.

Flow unit modeling and fine-scale predicted permeability validation in Atokan sandstones: Norcan East Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bhattacharya, S.; Byrnes, A.P.; Watney, W.L.; Doveton, J.H.

2008-01-01

Characterizing the reservoir interval into flow units is an effective way to subdivide the net-pay zone into layers for reservoir simulation. Commonly used flow unit identification techniques require a reliable estimate of permeability in the net pay on a foot-by-foot basis. Most of the wells do not have cores, and the literature is replete with different kinds of correlations, transforms, and prediction methods for profiling permeability in pay. However, for robust flow unit determination, predicted permeability at noncored wells requires validation and, if necessary, refinement. This study outlines the use o f a spreadsheet-based permeability validation technique to characterize flow units in wells from the Norcan East field, Clark County, Kansas, that produce from Atokan aged fine- to very fine-grained quartzarenite sandstones interpreted to have been deposited in brackish-water, tidally dominated restricted tidal-flat, tidal-channel, tidal-bar, and estuary bay environments within a small incised-valley-fill system. The methodology outlined enables the identification of fieldwide free-water level and validates and refines predicted permeability at 0.5-ft (0.15-m) intervals by iteratively reconciling differences in water saturation calculated from wire-line log and a capillary-pressure formulation that models fine- to very fine-grained sandstone with diagenetic clay and silt or shale laminae. The effectiveness of this methodology was confirmed by successfully matching primary and secondary production histories using a flow unit-based reservoir model of the Norcan East field without permeability modifications. The methodologies discussed should prove useful for robust flow unit characterization of different kinds of reservoirs. Copyright ?? 2008. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

Robust modeling and performance analysis of high-power diode side-pumped solid-state laser systems.

PubMed

Kashef, Tamer; Ghoniemy, Samy; Mokhtar, Ayman

2015-12-20

In this paper, we present an enhanced high-power extrinsic diode side-pumped solid-state laser (DPSSL) model to accurately predict the dynamic operations and pump distribution under different practical conditions. We introduce a new implementation technique for the proposed model that provides a compelling incentive for the performance assessment and enhancement of high-power diode side-pumped Nd:YAG lasers using cooperative agents and by relying on the MATLAB, GLAD, and Zemax ray tracing software packages. A large-signal laser model that includes thermal effects and a modified laser gain formulation and incorporates the geometrical pump distribution for three radially arranged arrays of laser diodes is presented. The design of a customized prototype diode side-pumped high-power laser head fabricated for the purpose of testing is discussed. A detailed comparative experimental and simulation study of the dynamic operation and the beam characteristics that are used to verify the accuracy of the proposed model for analyzing the performance of high-power DPSSLs under different conditions are discussed. The simulated and measured results of power, pump distribution, beam shape, and slope efficiency are shown under different conditions and for a specific case, where the targeted output power is 140 W, while the input pumping power is 400 W. The 95% output coupler reflectivity showed good agreement with the slope efficiency, which is approximately 35%; this assures the robustness of the proposed model to accurately predict the design parameters of practical, high-power DPSSLs.

State estimation and prediction using clustered particle filters.

PubMed

Lee, Yoonsang; Majda, Andrew J

2016-12-20

Particle filtering is an essential tool to improve uncertain model predictions by incorporating noisy observational data from complex systems including non-Gaussian features. A class of particle filters, clustered particle filters, is introduced for high-dimensional nonlinear systems, which uses relatively few particles compared with the standard particle filter. The clustered particle filter captures non-Gaussian features of the true signal, which are typical in complex nonlinear dynamical systems such as geophysical systems. The method is also robust in the difficult regime of high-quality sparse and infrequent observations. The key features of the clustered particle filtering are coarse-grained localization through the clustering of the state variables and particle adjustment to stabilize the method; each observation affects only neighbor state variables through clustering and particles are adjusted to prevent particle collapse due to high-quality observations. The clustered particle filter is tested for the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model with several dynamical regimes including strongly non-Gaussian statistics. The clustered particle filter shows robust skill in both achieving accurate filter results and capturing non-Gaussian statistics of the true signal. It is further extended to multiscale data assimilation, which provides the large-scale estimation by combining a cheap reduced-order forecast model and mixed observations of the large- and small-scale variables. This approach enables the use of a larger number of particles due to the computational savings in the forecast model. The multiscale clustered particle filter is tested for one-dimensional dispersive wave turbulence using a forecast model with model errors.

State estimation and prediction using clustered particle filters

PubMed Central

Lee, Yoonsang; Majda, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

Particle filtering is an essential tool to improve uncertain model predictions by incorporating noisy observational data from complex systems including non-Gaussian features. A class of particle filters, clustered particle filters, is introduced for high-dimensional nonlinear systems, which uses relatively few particles compared with the standard particle filter. The clustered particle filter captures non-Gaussian features of the true signal, which are typical in complex nonlinear dynamical systems such as geophysical systems. The method is also robust in the difficult regime of high-quality sparse and infrequent observations. The key features of the clustered particle filtering are coarse-grained localization through the clustering of the state variables and particle adjustment to stabilize the method; each observation affects only neighbor state variables through clustering and particles are adjusted to prevent particle collapse due to high-quality observations. The clustered particle filter is tested for the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model with several dynamical regimes including strongly non-Gaussian statistics. The clustered particle filter shows robust skill in both achieving accurate filter results and capturing non-Gaussian statistics of the true signal. It is further extended to multiscale data assimilation, which provides the large-scale estimation by combining a cheap reduced-order forecast model and mixed observations of the large- and small-scale variables. This approach enables the use of a larger number of particles due to the computational savings in the forecast model. The multiscale clustered particle filter is tested for one-dimensional dispersive wave turbulence using a forecast model with model errors. PMID:27930332

External validation of structure-biodegradation relationship (SBR) models for predicting the biodegradability of xenobiotics.

PubMed

Devillers, J; Pandard, P; Richard, B

2013-01-01

Biodegradation is an important mechanism for eliminating xenobiotics by biotransforming them into simple organic and inorganic products. Faced with the ever growing number of chemicals available on the market, structure-biodegradation relationship (SBR) and quantitative structure-biodegradation relationship (QSBR) models are increasingly used as surrogates of the biodegradation tests. Such models have great potential for a quick and cheap estimation of the biodegradation potential of chemicals. The Estimation Programs Interface (EPI) Suite™ includes different models for predicting the potential aerobic biodegradability of organic substances. They are based on different endpoints, methodologies and/or statistical approaches. Among them, Biowin 5 and 6 appeared the most robust, being derived from the largest biodegradation database with results obtained only from the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) test. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive performances of these two models from a set of 356 chemicals extracted from notification dossiers including compatible biodegradation data. Another set of molecules with no more than four carbon atoms and substituted by various heteroatoms and/or functional groups was also embodied in the validation exercise. Comparisons were made with the predictions obtained with START (Structural Alerts for Reactivity in Toxtree). Biowin 5 and Biowin 6 gave satisfactorily prediction results except for the prediction of readily degradable chemicals. A consensus model built with Biowin 1 allowed the diminution of this tendency.

Model identification using stochastic differential equation grey-box models in diabetes.

PubMed

Duun-Henriksen, Anne Katrine; Schmidt, Signe; Røge, Rikke Meldgaard; Møller, Jonas Bech; Nørgaard, Kirsten; Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Madsen, Henrik

2013-03-01

The acceptance of virtual preclinical testing of control algorithms is growing and thus also the need for robust and reliable models. Models based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) can rarely be validated with standard statistical tools. Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) offer the possibility of building models that can be validated statistically and that are capable of predicting not only a realistic trajectory, but also the uncertainty of the prediction. In an SDE, the prediction error is split into two noise terms. This separation ensures that the errors are uncorrelated and provides the possibility to pinpoint model deficiencies. An identifiable model of the glucoregulatory system in a type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patient is used as the basis for development of a stochastic-differential-equation-based grey-box model (SDE-GB). The parameters are estimated on clinical data from four T1DM patients. The optimal SDE-GB is determined from likelihood-ratio tests. Finally, parameter tracking is used to track the variation in the "time to peak of meal response" parameter. We found that the transformation of the ODE model into an SDE-GB resulted in a significant improvement in the prediction and uncorrelated errors. Tracking of the "peak time of meal absorption" parameter showed that the absorption rate varied according to meal type. This study shows the potential of using SDE-GBs in diabetes modeling. Improved model predictions were obtained due to the separation of the prediction error. SDE-GBs offer a solid framework for using statistical tools for model validation and model development. © 2013 Diabetes Technology Society.

Prediction of canned black bean texture (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) from intact dry seeds using visible/near infrared spectroscopy and hyperspectral imaging data.

PubMed

Mendoza, Fernando A; Cichy, Karen A; Sprague, Christy; Goffnett, Amanda; Lu, Renfu; Kelly, James D

2018-01-01

Texture is a major quality parameter for the acceptability of canned whole beans. Prior knowledge of this quality trait before processing would be useful to guide variety development by bean breeders and optimize handling protocols by processors. The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare the predictive power of visible and near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (visible/NIRS, 400-2498 nm) and hyperspectral imaging (HYPERS, 400-1000 nm) techniques for predicting texture of canned black beans from intact dry seeds. Black beans were grown in Michigan (USA) over three field seasons. The samples exhibited phenotypic variability for canned bean texture due to genetic variability and processing practice. Spectral preprocessing methods (i.e. smoothing, first and second derivatives, continuous wavelet transform, and two-band ratios), coupled with a feature selection method, were tested for optimizing the prediction accuracy in both techniques based on partial least squares regression (PLSR) models. Visible/NIRS and HYPERS were effective in predicting texture of canned beans using intact dry seeds, as indicated by their correlation coefficients for prediction (R pred ) and standard errors of prediction (SEP). Visible/NIRS was superior (R pred = 0.546-0.923, SEP = 7.5-1.9 kg 100 g -1 ) to HYPERS (R pred = 0.401-0.883, SEP = 7.6-2.4 kg 100 g -1 ), which is likely due to the wider wavelength range collected in visible/NIRS. However, a significant improvement was reached in both techniques when the two-band ratios preprocessing method was applied to the data, reducing SEP by at least 10.4% and 16.2% for visible/NIRS and HYPERS, respectively. Moreover, results from using the combination of the three-season data sets based on the two-band ratios showed that visible/NIRS (R pred = 0.886, SEP = 4.0 kg 100 g -1 ) and HYPERS (R pred = 0.844, SEP = 4.6 kg 100 g -1 ) models were consistently successful in predicting texture over a wide range of measurements. Visible/NIRS and HYPERS have great potential for predicting the texture of canned beans; the robustness of the models is impacted by genotypic diversity, planting year and phenotypic variability for canned bean texture used for model building, and hence, robust models can be built based on data sets with high phenotypic diversity in textural properties, and periodically maintained and updated with new data. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Plausibility and parameter sensitivity of micro-finite element-based joint load prediction at the proximal femur.

PubMed

Synek, Alexander; Pahr, Dieter H

2018-06-01

A micro-finite element-based method to estimate the bone loading history based on bone architecture was recently presented in the literature. However, a thorough investigation of the parameter sensitivity and plausibility of this method to predict joint loads is still missing. The goals of this study were (1) to analyse the parameter sensitivity of the joint load predictions at one proximal femur and (2) to assess the plausibility of the results by comparing load predictions of ten proximal femora to in vivo hip joint forces measured with instrumented prostheses (available from www.orthoload.com ). Joint loads were predicted by optimally scaling the magnitude of four unit loads (inclined [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] with respect to the vertical axis) applied to micro-finite element models created from high-resolution computed tomography scans ([Formula: see text]m voxel size). Parameter sensitivity analysis was performed by varying a total of nine parameters and showed that predictions of the peak load directions (range 10[Formula: see text]-[Formula: see text]) are more robust than the predicted peak load magnitudes (range 2344.8-4689.5 N). Comparing the results of all ten femora with the in vivo loading data of ten subjects showed that peak loads are plausible both in terms of the load direction (in vivo: [Formula: see text], predicted: [Formula: see text]) and magnitude (in vivo: [Formula: see text], predicted: [Formula: see text]). Overall, this study suggests that micro-finite element-based joint load predictions are both plausible and robust in terms of the predicted peak load direction, but predicted load magnitudes should be interpreted with caution.

Logic models to predict continuous outputs based on binary inputs with an application to personalized cancer therapy

PubMed Central

Knijnenburg, Theo A.; Klau, Gunnar W.; Iorio, Francesco; Garnett, Mathew J.; McDermott, Ultan; Shmulevich, Ilya; Wessels, Lodewyk F. A.

2016-01-01

Mining large datasets using machine learning approaches often leads to models that are hard to interpret and not amenable to the generation of hypotheses that can be experimentally tested. We present ‘Logic Optimization for Binary Input to Continuous Output’ (LOBICO), a computational approach that infers small and easily interpretable logic models of binary input features that explain a continuous output variable. Applying LOBICO to a large cancer cell line panel, we find that logic combinations of multiple mutations are more predictive of drug response than single gene predictors. Importantly, we show that the use of the continuous information leads to robust and more accurate logic models. LOBICO implements the ability to uncover logic models around predefined operating points in terms of sensitivity and specificity. As such, it represents an important step towards practical application of interpretable logic models. PMID:27876821

Logic models to predict continuous outputs based on binary inputs with an application to personalized cancer therapy.

PubMed

Knijnenburg, Theo A; Klau, Gunnar W; Iorio, Francesco; Garnett, Mathew J; McDermott, Ultan; Shmulevich, Ilya; Wessels, Lodewyk F A

2016-11-23

Mining large datasets using machine learning approaches often leads to models that are hard to interpret and not amenable to the generation of hypotheses that can be experimentally tested. We present 'Logic Optimization for Binary Input to Continuous Output' (LOBICO), a computational approach that infers small and easily interpretable logic models of binary input features that explain a continuous output variable. Applying LOBICO to a large cancer cell line panel, we find that logic combinations of multiple mutations are more predictive of drug response than single gene predictors. Importantly, we show that the use of the continuous information leads to robust and more accurate logic models. LOBICO implements the ability to uncover logic models around predefined operating points in terms of sensitivity and specificity. As such, it represents an important step towards practical application of interpretable logic models.

A biophysical model of dynamic balancing of excitation and inhibition in fast oscillatory large-scale networks

PubMed Central

Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N.; Brookes, Matthew J.; Woolrich, Mark W.

2018-01-01

Over long timescales, neuronal dynamics can be robust to quite large perturbations, such as changes in white matter connectivity and grey matter structure through processes including learning, aging, development and certain disease processes. One possible explanation is that robust dynamics are facilitated by homeostatic mechanisms that can dynamically rebalance brain networks. In this study, we simulate a cortical brain network using the Wilson-Cowan neural mass model with conduction delays and noise, and use inhibitory synaptic plasticity (ISP) to dynamically achieve a spatially local balance between excitation and inhibition. Using MEG data from 55 subjects we find that ISP enables us to simultaneously achieve high correlation with multiple measures of functional connectivity, including amplitude envelope correlation and phase locking. Further, we find that ISP successfully achieves local E/I balance, and can consistently predict the functional connectivity computed from real MEG data, for a much wider range of model parameters than is possible with a model without ISP. PMID:29474352

Comparing niche- and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change.

PubMed

Morin, Xavier; Thuiller, Wilfried

2009-05-01

Obtaining reliable predictions of species range shifts under climate change is a crucial challenge for ecologists and stakeholders. At the continental scale, niche-based models have been widely used in the last 10 years to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions all over the world, although these models do not include any mechanistic relationships. In contrast, species-specific, process-based predictions remain scarce at the continental scale. This is regrettable because to secure relevant and accurate predictions it is always desirable to compare predictions derived from different kinds of models applied independently to the same set of species and using the same raw data. Here we compare predictions of range shifts under climate change scenarios for 2100 derived from niche-based models with those of a process-based model for 15 North American boreal and temperate tree species. A general pattern emerged from our comparisons: niche-based models tend to predict a stronger level of extinction and a greater proportion of colonization than the process-based model. This result likely arises because niche-based models do not take phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation into account. Nevertheless, as the two kinds of models rely on different assumptions, their complementarity is revealed by common findings. Both modeling approaches highlight a major potential limitation on species tracking their climatic niche because of migration constraints and identify similar zones where species extirpation is likely. Such convergent predictions from models built on very different principles provide a useful way to offset uncertainties at the continental scale. This study shows that the use in concert of both approaches with their own caveats and advantages is crucial to obtain more robust results and that comparisons among models are needed in the near future to gain accuracy regarding predictions of range shifts under climate change.

The predictive consequences of parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, J.; Hughes, J. D.; Doherty, J. E.

2013-12-01

In numerical groundwater modeling, parameterization is the process of selecting the aspects of a computer model that will be allowed to vary during history matching. This selection process is dependent on professional judgment and is, therefore, inherently subjective. Ideally, a robust parameterization should be commensurate with the spatial and temporal resolution of the model and should include all uncertain aspects of the model. Limited computing resources typically require reducing the number of adjustable parameters so that only a subset of the uncertain model aspects are treated as estimable parameters; the remaining aspects are treated as fixed parameters during history matching. We use linear subspace theory to develop expressions for the predictive error incurred by fixing parameters. The predictive error is comprised of two terms. The first term arises directly from the sensitivity of a prediction to fixed parameters. The second term arises from prediction-sensitive adjustable parameters that are forced to compensate for fixed parameters during history matching. The compensation is accompanied by inappropriate adjustment of otherwise uninformed, null-space parameter components. Unwarranted adjustment of null-space components away from prior maximum likelihood values may produce bias if a prediction is sensitive to those components. The potential for subjective parameterization choices to corrupt predictions is examined using a synthetic model. Several strategies are evaluated, including use of piecewise constant zones, use of pilot points with Tikhonov regularization and use of the Karhunen-Loeve transformation. The best choice of parameterization (as defined by minimum error variance) is strongly dependent on the types of predictions to be made by the model.

Tuning and predicting the wetting of nanoengineered material surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramiasa-MacGregor, M.; Mierczynska, A.; Sedev, R.; Vasilev, K.

2016-02-01

The wetting of a material can be tuned by changing the roughness on its surface. Recent advances in the field of nanotechnology open exciting opportunities to control macroscopic wetting behaviour. Yet, the benchmark theories used to describe the wettability of macroscopically rough surfaces fail to fully describe the wetting behaviour of systems with topographical features at the nanoscale. To shed light on the events occurring at the nanoscale we have utilised model gradient substrata where surface nanotopography was tailored in a controlled and robust manner. The intrinsic wettability of the coatings was varied from hydrophilic to hydrophobic. The measured water contact angle could not be described by the classical theories. We developed an empirical model that effectively captures the experimental data, and further enables us to predict the wetting of surfaces with nanoscale roughness by considering the physical and chemical properties of the material. The fundamental insights presented here are important for the rational design of advanced materials having tailored surface nanotopography with predictable wettability.The wetting of a material can be tuned by changing the roughness on its surface. Recent advances in the field of nanotechnology open exciting opportunities to control macroscopic wetting behaviour. Yet, the benchmark theories used to describe the wettability of macroscopically rough surfaces fail to fully describe the wetting behaviour of systems with topographical features at the nanoscale. To shed light on the events occurring at the nanoscale we have utilised model gradient substrata where surface nanotopography was tailored in a controlled and robust manner. The intrinsic wettability of the coatings was varied from hydrophilic to hydrophobic. The measured water contact angle could not be described by the classical theories. We developed an empirical model that effectively captures the experimental data, and further enables us to predict the wetting of surfaces with nanoscale roughness by considering the physical and chemical properties of the material. The fundamental insights presented here are important for the rational design of advanced materials having tailored surface nanotopography with predictable wettability. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: Detailed characterization of the nanorough substrates and model derivation. See DOI: 10.1039/c5nr08329j

Collaborative Research: Robust Climate Projections and Stochastic Stability of Dynamical Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ilya Zaliapin

This project focused on conceptual exploration of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and sensitivity using a Delay Differential Equation developed in the project. We have (i) established the existence and continuous dependence of solutions of the model (ii) explored multiple models solutions, and the distribution of solutions extrema, and (iii) established and explored the phase locking phenomenon and the existence of multiple solutions for the same values of model parameters. In addition, we have applied to our model the concept of pullback attractor, which greatly facilitated predictive understanding of the nonlinear model's behavior.

Modeling time-to-event (survival) data using classification tree analysis.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R

2017-12-01

Time to the occurrence of an event is often studied in health research. Survival analysis differs from other designs in that follow-up times for individuals who do not experience the event by the end of the study (called censored) are accounted for in the analysis. Cox regression is the standard method for analysing censored data, but the assumptions required of these models are easily violated. In this paper, we introduce classification tree analysis (CTA) as a flexible alternative for modelling censored data. Classification tree analysis is a "decision-tree"-like classification model that provides parsimonious, transparent (ie, easy to visually display and interpret) decision rules that maximize predictive accuracy, derives exact P values via permutation tests, and evaluates model cross-generalizability. Using empirical data, we identify all statistically valid, reproducible, longitudinally consistent, and cross-generalizable CTA survival models and then compare their predictive accuracy to estimates derived via Cox regression and an unadjusted naïve model. Model performance is assessed using integrated Brier scores and a comparison between estimated survival curves. The Cox regression model best predicts average incidence of the outcome over time, whereas CTA survival models best predict either relatively high, or low, incidence of the outcome over time. Classification tree analysis survival models offer many advantages over Cox regression, such as explicit maximization of predictive accuracy, parsimony, statistical robustness, and transparency. Therefore, researchers interested in accurate prognoses and clear decision rules should consider developing models using the CTA-survival framework. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Co-fermentation of cellobiose and xylose by mixed culture of recombinant Saccharomyces cerevisiae and kinetic modeling.

PubMed

Chen, Yingying; Wu, Ying; Zhu, Baotong; Zhang, Guanyu; Wei, Na

2018-01-01

Efficient conversion of cellulosic sugars in cellulosic hydrolysates is important for economically viable production of biofuels from lignocellulosic biomass, but the goal remains a critical challenge. The present study reports a new approach for simultaneous fermentation of cellobiose and xylose by using the co-culture consisting of recombinant Saccharomyces cerevisiae specialist strains. The co-culture system can provide competitive advantage of modularity compared to the single culture system and can be tuned to deal with fluctuations in feedstock composition to achieve robust and cost-effective biofuel production. This study characterized fermentation kinetics of the recombinant cellobiose-consuming S. cerevisiae strain EJ2, xylose-consuming S. cerevisiae strain SR8, and their co-culture. The motivation for kinetic modeling was to provide guidance and prediction of using the co-culture system for simultaneous fermentation of mixed sugars with adjustable biomass of each specialist strain under different substrate concentrations. The kinetic model for the co-culture system was developed based on the pure culture models and incorporated the effects of product inhibition, initial substrate concentration and inoculum size. The model simulations were validated by results from independent fermentation experiments under different substrate conditions, and good agreement was found between model predictions and experimental data from batch fermentation of cellobiose, xylose and their mixtures. Additionally, with the guidance of model prediction, simultaneous co-fermentation of 60 g/L cellobiose and 20 g/L xylose was achieved with the initial cell densities of 0.45 g dry cell weight /L for EJ2 and 0.9 g dry cell weight /L SR8. The results demonstrated that the kinetic modeling could be used to guide the design and optimization of yeast co-culture conditions for achieving simultaneous fermentation of cellobiose and xylose with improved ethanol productivity, which is critically important for robust and efficient renewable biofuel production from lignocellulosic biomass.

Nuclear charge radii: density functional theory meets Bayesian neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, R.; Chen, Wei-Chia; Piekarewicz, J.

2016-11-01

The distribution of electric charge in atomic nuclei is fundamental to our understanding of the complex nuclear dynamics and a quintessential observable to validate nuclear structure models. The aim of this study is to explore a novel approach that combines sophisticated models of nuclear structure with Bayesian neural networks (BNN) to generate predictions for the charge radii of thousands of nuclei throughout the nuclear chart. A class of relativistic energy density functionals is used to provide robust predictions for nuclear charge radii. In turn, these predictions are refined through Bayesian learning for a neural network that is trained using residuals between theoretical predictions and the experimental data. Although predictions obtained with density functional theory provide a fairly good description of experiment, our results show significant improvement (better than 40%) after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results for nuclear charge radii are supplemented with theoretical error bars. We have successfully demonstrated the ability of the BNN approach to significantly increase the accuracy of nuclear models in the predictions of nuclear charge radii. However, as many before us, we failed to uncover the underlying physics behind the intriguing behavior of charge radii along the calcium isotopic chain.

Chemometric compositional analysis of phenolic compounds in fermenting samples and wines using different infrared spectroscopy techniques.

PubMed

Aleixandre-Tudo, Jose Luis; Nieuwoudt, Helene; Aleixandre, Jose Luis; du Toit, Wessel

2018-01-01

The wine industry requires reliable methods for the quantification of phenolic compounds during the winemaking process. Infrared spectroscopy appears as a suitable technique for process control and monitoring. The ability of Fourier transform near infrared (FT-NIR), attenuated total reflectance mid infrared (ATR-MIR) and Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopies to predict compositional phenolic levels during red wine fermentation and aging was investigated. Prediction models containing a large number of samples collected over two vintages from several industrial fermenting tanks as well as wine samples covering a varying number of vintages were validated. FT-NIR appeared as the most accurate technique to predict the phenolic content. Although slightly less accurate models were observed, ATR-MIR and FT-IR can also be used for the prediction of the majority of phenolic measurements. Additionally, the slope and intercept test indicated a systematic error for the three spectroscopies which seems to be slightly more pronounced for HPLC generated phenolics data than for the spectrophotometric parameters. However, the results also showed that the predictions made with the three instruments are statistically comparable. The robustness of the prediction models was also investigated and discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The right time to learn: mechanisms and optimization of spaced learning

PubMed Central

Smolen, Paul; Zhang, Yili; Byrne, John H.

2016-01-01

For many types of learning, spaced training, which involves repeated long inter-trial intervals, leads to more robust memory formation than does massed training, which involves short or no intervals. Several cognitive theories have been proposed to explain this superiority, but only recently have data begun to delineate the underlying cellular and molecular mechanisms of spaced training, and we review these theories and data here. Computational models of the implicated signalling cascades have predicted that spaced training with irregular inter-trial intervals can enhance learning. This strategy of using models to predict optimal spaced training protocols, combined with pharmacotherapy, suggests novel ways to rescue impaired synaptic plasticity and learning. PMID:26806627

Oscillatory Protein Expression Dynamics Endows Stem Cells with Robust Differentiation Potential

PubMed Central

Kaneko, Kunihiko

2011-01-01

The lack of understanding of stem cell differentiation and proliferation is a fundamental problem in developmental biology. Although gene regulatory networks (GRNs) for stem cell differentiation have been partially identified, the nature of differentiation dynamics and their regulation leading to robust development remain unclear. Herein, using a dynamical system modeling cell approach, we performed simulations of the developmental process using all possible GRNs with a few genes, and screened GRNs that could generate cell type diversity through cell-cell interactions. We found that model stem cells that both proliferated and differentiated always exhibited oscillatory expression dynamics, and the differentiation frequency of such stem cells was regulated, resulting in a robust number distribution. Moreover, we uncovered the common regulatory motifs for stem cell differentiation, in which a combination of regulatory motifs that generated oscillatory expression dynamics and stabilized distinct cellular states played an essential role. These findings may explain the recently observed heterogeneity and dynamic equilibrium in cellular states of stem cells, and can be used to predict regulatory networks responsible for differentiation in stem cell systems. PMID:22073296

Verilog-A Device Models for Cryogenic Temperature Operation of Bulk Silicon CMOS Devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Akturk, Akin; Potbhare, Siddharth; Goldsman, Neil; Holloway, Michael

2012-01-01

Verilog-A based cryogenic bulk CMOS (complementary metal oxide semiconductor) compact models are built for state-of-the-art silicon CMOS processes. These models accurately predict device operation at cryogenic temperatures down to 4 K. The models are compatible with commercial circuit simulators. The models extend the standard BSIM4 [Berkeley Short-channel IGFET (insulated-gate field-effect transistor ) Model] type compact models by re-parameterizing existing equations, as well as adding new equations that capture the physics of device operation at cryogenic temperatures. These models will allow circuit designers to create optimized, reliable, and robust circuits operating at cryogenic temperatures.

Respiratory sinus arrhythmia reactivity to a sad film predicts depression symptom improvement and symptomatic trajectory

PubMed Central

Panaite, Vanessa; Hindash, Alexandra Cowden; Bylsma, Lauren M.; Small, Brent J.; Salomon, Kristen; Rottenberg, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) reactivity, an index of cardiac vagal tone, has been linked to self-regulation and the severity and course of depression (Rottenberg, 2007). Although initial data supports the proposition that RSA withdrawal during a sad film is a specific predictor of depression course (Fraguas, 2007; Rottenberg, 2005), the robustness and specificity of this finding are unclear. To provide a stronger test, RSA reactivity to three emotion films (happy, sad, fear) and to a more robust stressor, a speech task, were examined in currently depressed individuals (n = 37), who were assessed for their degree of symptomatic improvement over 30 weeks. Robust RSA reactivity to the sad film uniquely predicted overall symptom improvement over 30 weeks. RSA reactivity to both sad and stressful stimuli predicted the speed and maintenance of symptomatic improvement. The current analyses provide the most robust support to date that RSA withdrawal to sad stimuli (but not stressful) has specificity in predicting the overall symptomatic improvement. In contrast, RSA reactivity to negative stimuli (both sad and stressful) predicted the trajectory of depression course. Patients’ engagement with sad stimuli may be an important sign to attend to in therapeutic settings. PMID:26681648

Multimodality Prediction of Chaotic Time Series with Sparse Hard-Cut EM Learning of the Gaussian Process Mixture Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Ya-Tong; Fan, Yu; Chen, Zi-Yi; Sun, Jian-Cheng

2017-05-01

The contribution of this work is twofold: (1) a multimodality prediction method of chaotic time series with the Gaussian process mixture (GPM) model is proposed, which employs a divide and conquer strategy. It automatically divides the chaotic time series into multiple modalities with different extrinsic patterns and intrinsic characteristics, and thus can more precisely fit the chaotic time series. (2) An effective sparse hard-cut expectation maximization (SHC-EM) learning algorithm for the GPM model is proposed to improve the prediction performance. SHC-EM replaces a large learning sample set with fewer pseudo inputs, accelerating model learning based on these pseudo inputs. Experiments on Lorenz and Chua time series demonstrate that the proposed method yields not only accurate multimodality prediction, but also the prediction confidence interval. SHC-EM outperforms the traditional variational learning in terms of both prediction accuracy and speed. In addition, SHC-EM is more robust and insusceptible to noise than variational learning. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No 60972106, the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No 2014M561053, the Humanity and Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China under Grant No 15YJA630108, and the Hebei Province Natural Science Foundation under Grant No E2016202341.

A Critical Assessment of Combined Ligand-based and Structure-based Approaches to hERG Channel Blocker Modeling

PubMed Central

Du-Cuny, Lei; Chen, Lu; Zhang, Shuxing

2014-01-01

Blockade of hERG channel prolongs the duration of the cardiac action potential and is a common reason for drug failure in preclinical safety trials. Therefore, it is of great importance to develop robust in silico tools to predict potential hERG blockers in the early stages of drug discovery and development. Herein we described comprehensive approaches to assess the discrimination of hERG-active and -inactive compounds by combining QSAR modeling, pharmacophore analysis, and molecular docking. Our consensus models demonstrated high predictive capacity and improved enrichment, and they could correctly classify 91.8% of 147 hERG blockers from 351 inactives. To further enhance our modeling effort, hERG homology models were constructed and molecular docking studies were conducted, resulting in high correlations (R2=0.81) between predicted and experimental binding affinities. We expect our unique models can be applied to efficient screening for hERG blockades, and our extensive understanding of the hERG-inhibitor interactions will facilitate the rational design of drugs devoid of hERG channel activity and hence with reduced cardiac toxicities. PMID:21902220

Use of a machine learning framework to predict substance use disorder treatment success

PubMed Central

Kelmansky, Diana; van der Laan, Mark; Sahker, Ethan; Jones, DeShauna; Arndt, Stephan

2017-01-01

There are several methods for building prediction models. The wealth of currently available modeling techniques usually forces the researcher to judge, a priori, what will likely be the best method. Super learning (SL) is a methodology that facilitates this decision by combining all identified prediction algorithms pertinent for a particular prediction problem. SL generates a final model that is at least as good as any of the other models considered for predicting the outcome. The overarching aim of this work is to introduce SL to analysts and practitioners. This work compares the performance of logistic regression, penalized regression, random forests, deep learning neural networks, and SL to predict successful substance use disorders (SUD) treatment. A nationwide database including 99,013 SUD treatment patients was used. All algorithms were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in a test sample that was not included in the training sample used to fit the prediction models. AUC for the models ranged between 0.793 and 0.820. SL was superior to all but one of the algorithms compared. An explanation of SL steps is provided. SL is the first step in targeted learning, an analytic framework that yields double robust effect estimation and inference with fewer assumptions than the usual parametric methods. Different aspects of SL depending on the context, its function within the targeted learning framework, and the benefits of this methodology in the addiction field are discussed. PMID:28394905

Use of a machine learning framework to predict substance use disorder treatment success.

PubMed

Acion, Laura; Kelmansky, Diana; van der Laan, Mark; Sahker, Ethan; Jones, DeShauna; Arndt, Stephan

2017-01-01

There are several methods for building prediction models. The wealth of currently available modeling techniques usually forces the researcher to judge, a priori, what will likely be the best method. Super learning (SL) is a methodology that facilitates this decision by combining all identified prediction algorithms pertinent for a particular prediction problem. SL generates a final model that is at least as good as any of the other models considered for predicting the outcome. The overarching aim of this work is to introduce SL to analysts and practitioners. This work compares the performance of logistic regression, penalized regression, random forests, deep learning neural networks, and SL to predict successful substance use disorders (SUD) treatment. A nationwide database including 99,013 SUD treatment patients was used. All algorithms were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in a test sample that was not included in the training sample used to fit the prediction models. AUC for the models ranged between 0.793 and 0.820. SL was superior to all but one of the algorithms compared. An explanation of SL steps is provided. SL is the first step in targeted learning, an analytic framework that yields double robust effect estimation and inference with fewer assumptions than the usual parametric methods. Different aspects of SL depending on the context, its function within the targeted learning framework, and the benefits of this methodology in the addiction field are discussed.

Modeling of temperature-induced near-infrared and low-field time-domain nuclear magnetic resonance spectral variation: chemometric prediction of limonene and water content in spray-dried delivery systems.

PubMed

Andrade, Letícia; Farhat, Imad A; Aeberhardt, Kasia; Bro, Rasmus; Engelsen, Søren Balling

2009-02-01

The influence of temperature on near-infrared (NIR) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy complicates the industrial applications of both spectroscopic methods. The focus of this study is to analyze and model the effect of temperature variation on NIR spectra and NMR relaxation data. Different multivariate methods were tested for constructing robust prediction models based on NIR and NMR data acquired at various temperatures. Data were acquired on model spray-dried limonene systems at five temperatures in the range from 20 degrees C to 60 degrees C and partial least squares (PLS) regression models were computed for limonene and water predictions. The predictive ability of the models computed on the NIR spectra (acquired at various temperatures) improved significantly when data were preprocessed using extended inverted signal correction (EISC). The average PLS regression prediction error was reduced to 0.2%, corresponding to 1.9% and 3.4% of the full range of limonene and water reference values, respectively. The removal of variation induced by temperature prior to calibration, by direct orthogonalization (DO), slightly enhanced the predictive ability of the models based on NMR data. Bilinear PLS models, with implicit inclusion of the temperature, enabled limonene and water predictions by NMR with an error of 0.3% (corresponding to 2.8% and 7.0% of the full range of limonene and water). For NMR, and in contrast to the NIR results, modeling the data using multi-way N-PLS improved the models' performance. N-PLS models, in which temperature was included as an extra variable, enabled more accurate prediction, especially for limonene (prediction error was reduced to 0.2%). Overall, this study proved that it is possible to develop models for limonene and water content prediction based on NIR and NMR data, independent of the measurement temperature.

Strong Inference in Mathematical Modeling: A Method for Robust Science in the Twenty-First Century.

PubMed

Ganusov, Vitaly V

2016-01-01

While there are many opinions on what mathematical modeling in biology is, in essence, modeling is a mathematical tool, like a microscope, which allows consequences to logically follow from a set of assumptions. Only when this tool is applied appropriately, as microscope is used to look at small items, it may allow to understand importance of specific mechanisms/assumptions in biological processes. Mathematical modeling can be less useful or even misleading if used inappropriately, for example, when a microscope is used to study stars. According to some philosophers (Oreskes et al., 1994), the best use of mathematical models is not when a model is used to confirm a hypothesis but rather when a model shows inconsistency of the model (defined by a specific set of assumptions) and data. Following the principle of strong inference for experimental sciences proposed by Platt (1964), I suggest "strong inference in mathematical modeling" as an effective and robust way of using mathematical modeling to understand mechanisms driving dynamics of biological systems. The major steps of strong inference in mathematical modeling are (1) to develop multiple alternative models for the phenomenon in question; (2) to compare the models with available experimental data and to determine which of the models are not consistent with the data; (3) to determine reasons why rejected models failed to explain the data, and (4) to suggest experiments which would allow to discriminate between remaining alternative models. The use of strong inference is likely to provide better robustness of predictions of mathematical models and it should be strongly encouraged in mathematical modeling-based publications in the Twenty-First century.

Robust camera calibration for sport videos using court models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farin, Dirk; Krabbe, Susanne; de With, Peter H. N.; Effelsberg, Wolfgang

2003-12-01

We propose an automatic camera calibration algorithm for court sports. The obtained camera calibration parameters are required for applications that need to convert positions in the video frame to real-world coordinates or vice versa. Our algorithm uses a model of the arrangement of court lines for calibration. Since the court model can be specified by the user, the algorithm can be applied to a variety of different sports. The algorithm starts with a model initialization step which locates the court in the image without any user assistance or a-priori knowledge about the most probable position. Image pixels are classified as court line pixels if they pass several tests including color and local texture constraints. A Hough transform is applied to extract line elements, forming a set of court line candidates. The subsequent combinatorial search establishes correspondences between lines in the input image and lines from the court model. For the succeeding input frames, an abbreviated calibration algorithm is used, which predicts the camera parameters for the new image and optimizes the parameters using a gradient-descent algorithm. We have conducted experiments on a variety of sport videos (tennis, volleyball, and goal area sequences of soccer games). Video scenes with considerable difficulties were selected to test the robustness of the algorithm. Results show that the algorithm is very robust to occlusions, partial court views, bad lighting conditions, or shadows.

Predicting available water of soil from particle-size distribution and bulk density in an oasis-desert transect in northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Danfeng; Gao, Guangyao; Shao, Ming'an; Fu, Bojie

2016-07-01

A detailed understanding of soil hydraulic properties, particularly the available water content of soil, (AW, cm3 cm-3), is required for optimal water management. Direct measurement of soil hydraulic properties is impractical for large scale application, but routinely available soil particle-size distribution (PSD) and bulk density can be used as proxies to develop various prediction functions. In this study, we compared the performance of the Arya and Paris (AP) model, Mohammadi and Vanclooster (MV) model, Arya and Heitman (AH) model, and Rosetta program in predicting the soil water characteristic curve (SWCC) at 34 points with experimental SWCC data in an oasis-desert transect (20 × 5 km) in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, northwestern China. The idea of the three models emerges from the similarity of the shapes of the PSD and SWCC. The AP model, MV model, and Rosetta program performed better in predicting the SWCC than the AH model. The AW determined from the SWCCs predicted by the MV model agreed better with the experimental values than those derived from the AP model and Rosetta program. The fine-textured soils were characterized by higher AW values, while the sandy soils had lower AW values. The MV model has the advantages of having robust physical basis, being independent of database-related parameters, and involving subclasses of texture data. These features make it promising in predicting soil water retention at regional scales, serving for the application of hydrological models and the optimization of soil water management.

Measles on the Edge: Coastal Heterogeneities and Infection Dynamics

PubMed Central

Bharti, Nita; Xia, Yingcun; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2008-01-01

Mathematical models can help elucidate the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics as well as the impact of control measures. The gravity model for directly transmitted diseases is currently one of the most parsimonious models for spatial epidemic spread. This model uses distance-weighted, population size-dependent coupling to estimate host movement and disease incidence in metapopulations. The model captures overall measles dynamics in terms of underlying human movement in pre-vaccination England and Wales (previously established). In spatial models, edges often present a special challenge. Therefore, to test the model's robustness, we analyzed gravity model incidence predictions for coastal cities in England and Wales. Results show that, although predictions are accurate for inland towns, they significantly underestimate coastal persistence. We examine incidence, outbreak seasonality, and public transportation records, to show that the model's inaccuracies stem from an underestimation of total contacts per individual along the coast. We rescue this predicted ‘edge effect’ by increasing coastal contacts to approximate the number of per capita inland contacts. These results illustrate the impact of ‘edge effects’ on epidemic metapopulations in general and illustrate directions for the refinement of spatiotemporal epidemic models. PMID:18398467

Does the covariance structure matter in longitudinal modelling for the prediction of future CD4 counts?

PubMed

Taylor, J M; Law, N

1998-10-30

We investigate the importance of the assumed covariance structure for longitudinal modelling of CD4 counts. We examine how individual predictions of future CD4 counts are affected by the covariance structure. We consider four covariance structures: one based on an integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic process; one based on Brownian motion, and two derived from standard linear and quadratic random-effects models. Using data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study and from a simulation study, we show that there is a noticeable deterioration in the coverage rate of confidence intervals if we assume the wrong covariance. There is also a loss in efficiency. The quadratic random-effects model is found to be the best in terms of correctly calibrated prediction intervals, but is substantially less efficient than the others. Incorrectly specifying the covariance structure as linear random effects gives too narrow prediction intervals with poor coverage rates. Fitting using the model based on the integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic process is the preferred one of the four considered because of its efficiency and robustness properties. We also use the difference between the future predicted and observed CD4 counts to assess an appropriate transformation of CD4 counts; a fourth root, cube root and square root all appear reasonable choices.

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions.

PubMed

Fox, Naomi J; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S; White, Piran C L; Hutchings, Michael R

2012-03-06

Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed.

Contemporary Drought and Future Effects of Climate Change on the Endangered Blunt-Nosed Leopard Lizard, Gambelia sila.

PubMed

Westphal, Michael F; Stewart, Joseph A E; Tennant, Erin N; Butterfield, H Scott; Sinervo, Barry

2016-01-01

Extreme weather events can provide unique opportunities for testing models that predict the effect of climate change. Droughts of increasing severity have been predicted under numerous models, thus contemporary droughts may allow us to test these models prior to the onset of the more extreme effects predicted with a changing climate. In the third year of an ongoing severe drought, surveys failed to detect neonate endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizards in a subset of previously surveyed populations where we expected to see them. By conducting surveys at a large number of sites across the range of the species over a short time span, we were able to establish a strong positive correlation between winter precipitation and the presence of neonate leopard lizards over geographic space. Our results are consistent with those of numerous longitudinal studies and are in accordance with predictive climate change models. We suggest that scientists can take immediate advantage of droughts while they are still in progress to test patterns of occurrence in other drought-sensitive species and thus provide for more robust models of climate change effects on biodiversity.

Modelisation numerique d'un actionneur plasma de type decharge a barriere dielectrique par la methode de derive-diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Jacques

Dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma actuator is a proposed device for active for control in order to improve the performances of aircraft and turbomachines. Essentially, these actuators are made of two electrodes separated by a layer of dielectric material and convert electricity directly into flow. Because of the high costs associated with experiences in realistic operating conditions, there is a need to develop a robust numerical model that can predict the plasma body force and the effects of various parameters on it. Indeed, this plasma body force can be affected by atmospheric conditions (temperature, pressure, and humidity), velocity of the neutral flow, applied voltage (amplitude, frequency, and waveform), and by the actuator geometry. In that respect, the purpose of this thesis is to implement a plasma model for DBD actuator that has the potential to consider the effects of these various parameters. In DBD actuator modelling, two types of approach are commonly proposed, low-order modelling (or phenomenological) and high-order modelling (or scientific). However a critical analysis, presented in this thesis, showed that phenomenological models are not robust enough to predict the plasma body force without artificial calibration for each specific case. Moreover, there are based on erroneous assumptions. Hence, the selected approach to model the plasma body force is a scientific drift-diffusion model with four chemical species (electrons, positive ions, negative ions, and neutrals). This model was chosen because it gives consistent numerical results comparatively with experimental data. Moreover, this model has great potential to include the effect of temperature, pressure, and humidity on the plasma body force and requires only a reasonable computational time. This model was independently implemented in C++ programming language and validated with several test cases. This model was later used to simulate the effect of the plasma body force on the laminar-turbulent transition on airfoil in order to validate the performance of this model in practical CFD simulation. Numerical results show that this model gives a better prediction of the effect of the plasma on the fluid flow for a practical case in aerospace than a phenomenological model.

Strong Inference in Mathematical Modeling: A Method for Robust Science in the Twenty-First Century

PubMed Central

Ganusov, Vitaly V.

2016-01-01

While there are many opinions on what mathematical modeling in biology is, in essence, modeling is a mathematical tool, like a microscope, which allows consequences to logically follow from a set of assumptions. Only when this tool is applied appropriately, as microscope is used to look at small items, it may allow to understand importance of specific mechanisms/assumptions in biological processes. Mathematical modeling can be less useful or even misleading if used inappropriately, for example, when a microscope is used to study stars. According to some philosophers (Oreskes et al., 1994), the best use of mathematical models is not when a model is used to confirm a hypothesis but rather when a model shows inconsistency of the model (defined by a specific set of assumptions) and data. Following the principle of strong inference for experimental sciences proposed by Platt (1964), I suggest “strong inference in mathematical modeling” as an effective and robust way of using mathematical modeling to understand mechanisms driving dynamics of biological systems. The major steps of strong inference in mathematical modeling are (1) to develop multiple alternative models for the phenomenon in question; (2) to compare the models with available experimental data and to determine which of the models are not consistent with the data; (3) to determine reasons why rejected models failed to explain the data, and (4) to suggest experiments which would allow to discriminate between remaining alternative models. The use of strong inference is likely to provide better robustness of predictions of mathematical models and it should be strongly encouraged in mathematical modeling-based publications in the Twenty-First century. PMID:27499750

Epithelial–mesenchymal transition biomarkers and support vector machine guided model in preoperatively predicting regional lymph node metastasis for rectal cancer

PubMed Central

Fan, X-J; Wan, X-B; Huang, Y; Cai, H-M; Fu, X-H; Yang, Z-L; Chen, D-K; Song, S-X; Wu, P-H; Liu, Q; Wang, L; Wang, J-P

2012-01-01

Background: Current imaging modalities are inadequate in preoperatively predicting regional lymph node metastasis (RLNM) status in rectal cancer (RC). Here, we designed support vector machine (SVM) model to address this issue by integrating epithelial–mesenchymal-transition (EMT)-related biomarkers along with clinicopathological variables. Methods: Using tissue microarrays and immunohistochemistry, the EMT-related biomarkers expression was measured in 193 RC patients. Of which, 74 patients were assigned to the training set to select the robust variables for designing SVM model. The SVM model predictive value was validated in the testing set (119 patients). Results: In training set, eight variables, including six EMT-related biomarkers and two clinicopathological variables, were selected to devise SVM model. In testing set, we identified 63 patients with high risk to RLNM and 56 patients with low risk. The sensitivity, specificity and overall accuracy of SVM in predicting RLNM were 68.3%, 81.1% and 72.3%, respectively. Importantly, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that SVM model was indeed an independent predictor of RLNM status (odds ratio, 11.536; 95% confidence interval, 4.113–32.361; P<0.0001). Conclusion: Our SVM-based model displayed moderately strong predictive power in defining the RLNM status in RC patients, providing an important approach to select RLNM high-risk subgroup for neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. PMID:22538975

Preserving privacy whilst maintaining robust epidemiological predictions.

PubMed

Werkman, Marleen; Tildesley, Michael J; Brooks-Pollock, Ellen; Keeling, Matt J

2016-12-01

Mathematical models are invaluable tools for quantifying potential epidemics and devising optimal control strategies in case of an outbreak. State-of-the-art models increasingly require detailed individual farm-based and sensitive data, which may not be available due to either lack of capacity for data collection or privacy concerns. However, in many situations, aggregated data are available for use. In this study, we systematically investigate the accuracy of predictions made by mathematical models initialised with varying data aggregations, using the UK 2001 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic as a case study. We consider the scenario when the only data available are aggregated into spatial grid cells, and develop a metapopulation model where individual farms in a single subpopulation are assumed to behave uniformly and transmit randomly. We also adapt this standard metapopulation model to capture heterogeneity in farm size and composition, using farm census data. Our results show that homogeneous models based on aggregated data overestimate final epidemic size but can perform well for predicting spatial spread. Recognising heterogeneity in farm sizes improves predictions of the final epidemic size, identifying risk areas, determining the likelihood of epidemic take-off and identifying the optimal control strategy. In conclusion, in cases where individual farm-based data are not available, models can still generate meaningful predictions, although care must be taken in their interpretation and use. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Can air temperature be used to project influences of climate change on stream temperature?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Safeeq, Mohammad; Dunham, Jason B.; Johnson, Sherri L.

2014-01-01

Worldwide, lack of data on stream temperature has motivated the use of regression-based statistical models to predict stream temperatures based on more widely available data on air temperatures. Such models have been widely applied to project responses of stream temperatures under climate change, but the performance of these models has not been fully evaluated. To address this knowledge gap, we examined the performance of two widely used linear and nonlinear regression models that predict stream temperatures based on air temperatures. We evaluated model performance and temporal stability of model parameters in a suite of regulated and unregulated streams with 11–44 years of stream temperature data. Although such models may have validity when predicting stream temperatures within the span of time that corresponds to the data used to develop them, model predictions did not transfer well to other time periods. Validation of model predictions of most recent stream temperatures, based on air temperature–stream temperature relationships from previous time periods often showed poor performance when compared with observed stream temperatures. Overall, model predictions were less robust in regulated streams and they frequently failed in detecting the coldest and warmest temperatures within all sites. In many cases, the magnitude of errors in these predictions falls within a range that equals or exceeds the magnitude of future projections of climate-related changes in stream temperatures reported for the region we studied (between 0.5 and 3.0 °C by 2080). The limited ability of regression-based statistical models to accurately project stream temperatures over time likely stems from the fact that underlying processes at play, namely the heat budgets of air and water, are distinctive in each medium and vary among localities and through time.

Chaos and Robustness in a Single Family of Genetic Oscillatory Networks

PubMed Central

Fu, Daniel; Tan, Patrick; Kuznetsov, Alexey; Molkov, Yaroslav I.

2014-01-01

Genetic oscillatory networks can be mathematically modeled with delay differential equations (DDEs). Interpreting genetic networks with DDEs gives a more intuitive understanding from a biological standpoint. However, it presents a problem mathematically, for DDEs are by construction infinitely-dimensional and thus cannot be analyzed using methods common for systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). In our study, we address this problem by developing a method for reducing infinitely-dimensional DDEs to two- and three-dimensional systems of ODEs. We find that the three-dimensional reductions provide qualitative improvements over the two-dimensional reductions. We find that the reducibility of a DDE corresponds to its robustness. For non-robust DDEs that exhibit high-dimensional dynamics, we calculate analytic dimension lines to predict the dependence of the DDEs’ correlation dimension on parameters. From these lines, we deduce that the correlation dimension of non-robust DDEs grows linearly with the delay. On the other hand, for robust DDEs, we find that the period of oscillation grows linearly with delay. We find that DDEs with exclusively negative feedback are robust, whereas DDEs with feedback that changes its sign are not robust. We find that non-saturable degradation damps oscillations and narrows the range of parameter values for which oscillations exist. Finally, we deduce that natural genetic oscillators with highly-regular periods likely have solely negative feedback. PMID:24667178

Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior

PubMed Central

Chabris, Christopher F.; Laibson, David; Morris, Carrie L.; Schuldt, Jonathon P.; Taubinsky, Dmitry

2009-01-01

We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09-0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions. PMID:19412359

Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior.

PubMed

Chabris, Christopher F; Laibson, David; Morris, Carrie L; Schuldt, Jonathon P; Taubinsky, Dmitry

2008-12-01

We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09-0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions.

Mean-field analysis of an inductive reasoning game: Application to influenza vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breban, Romulus; Vardavas, Raffaele; Blower, Sally

2007-09-01

Recently we have introduced an inductive reasoning game of voluntary yearly vaccination to establish whether or not a population of individuals acting in their own self-interest would be able to prevent influenza epidemics. Here, we analyze our model to describe the dynamics of the collective yearly vaccination uptake. We discuss the mean-field equations of our model and first order effects of fluctuations. We explain why our model predicts that severe epidemics are periodically expected even without the introduction of pandemic strains. We find that fluctuations in the collective yearly vaccination uptake induce severe epidemics with an expected periodicity that depends on the number of independent decision makers in the population. The mean-field dynamics also reveal that there are conditions for which the dynamics become robust to the fluctuations. However, the transition between fluctuation-sensitive and fluctuation-robust dynamics occurs for biologically implausible parameters. We also analyze our model when incentive-based vaccination programs are offered. When a family-based incentive is offered, the expected periodicity of severe epidemics is increased. This results from the fact that the number of independent decision makers is reduced, increasing the effect of the fluctuations. However, incentives based on the number of years of prepayment of vaccination may yield fluctuation-robust dynamics where severe epidemics are prevented. In this case, depending on prepayment, the transition between fluctuation-sensitive and fluctuation-robust dynamics may occur for biologically plausible parameters. Our analysis provides a practical method for identifying how many years of free vaccination should be provided in order to successfully ameliorate influenza epidemics.

Mean-field analysis of an inductive reasoning game: application to influenza vaccination.

PubMed

Breban, Romulus; Vardavas, Raffaele; Blower, Sally

2007-09-01

Recently we have introduced an inductive reasoning game of voluntary yearly vaccination to establish whether or not a population of individuals acting in their own self-interest would be able to prevent influenza epidemics. Here, we analyze our model to describe the dynamics of the collective yearly vaccination uptake. We discuss the mean-field equations of our model and first order effects of fluctuations. We explain why our model predicts that severe epidemics are periodically expected even without the introduction of pandemic strains. We find that fluctuations in the collective yearly vaccination uptake induce severe epidemics with an expected periodicity that depends on the number of independent decision makers in the population. The mean-field dynamics also reveal that there are conditions for which the dynamics become robust to the fluctuations. However, the transition between fluctuation-sensitive and fluctuation-robust dynamics occurs for biologically implausible parameters. We also analyze our model when incentive-based vaccination programs are offered. When a family-based incentive is offered, the expected periodicity of severe epidemics is increased. This results from the fact that the number of independent decision makers is reduced, increasing the effect of the fluctuations. However, incentives based on the number of years of prepayment of vaccination may yield fluctuation-robust dynamics where severe epidemics are prevented. In this case, depending on prepayment, the transition between fluctuation-sensitive and fluctuation-robust dynamics may occur for biologically plausible parameters. Our analysis provides a practical method for identifying how many years of free vaccination should be provided in order to successfully ameliorate influenza epidemics.

Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility-in-mean model with leverage and asymmetrically heavy-tailed error using generalized hyperbolic skew Student’s t-distribution*

PubMed Central

Leão, William L.; Chen, Ming-Hui

2017-01-01

A stochastic volatility-in-mean model with correlated errors using the generalized hyperbolic skew Student-t (GHST) distribution provides a robust alternative to the parameter estimation for daily stock returns in the absence of normality. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm is developed for parameter estimation. The deviance information, the Bayesian predictive information and the log-predictive score criterion are used to assess the fit of the proposed model. The proposed method is applied to an analysis of the daily stock return data from the Standard & Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). The empirical results reveal that the stochastic volatility-in-mean model with correlated errors and GH-ST distribution leads to a significant improvement in the goodness-of-fit for the S&P 500 index returns dataset over the usual normal model. PMID:29333210

Advanced fast 3D DSA model development and calibration for design technology co-optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Kafai; Meliorisz, Balint; Muelders, Thomas; Welling, Ulrich; Stock, Hans-Jürgen; Marokkey, Sajan; Demmerle, Wolfgang; Liu, Chi-Chun; Chi, Cheng; Guo, Jing

2017-04-01

Direct Optimization (DO) of a 3D DSA model is a more optimal approach to a DTCO study in terms of accuracy and speed compared to a Cahn Hilliard Equation solver. DO's shorter run time (10X to 100X faster) and linear scaling makes it scalable to the area required for a DTCO study. However, the lack of temporal data output, as opposed to prior art, requires a new calibration method. The new method involves a specific set of calibration patterns. The calibration pattern's design is extremely important when temporal data is absent to obtain robust model parameters. A model calibrated to a Hybrid DSA system with a set of device-relevant constructs indicates the effectiveness of using nontemporal data. Preliminary model prediction using programmed defects on chemo-epitaxy shows encouraging results and agree qualitatively well with theoretical predictions from a strong segregation theory.

Plant Photosynthesis-Irradiance Curve Responses to Pollution Show Non-Competitive Inhibited Michaelis Kinetics

PubMed Central

Lin, Maozi; Wang, Zhiwei; He, Lingchao; Xu, Kang; Cheng, Dongliang; Wang, Genxuan

2015-01-01

Photosynthesis-irradiance (PI) curves are extensively used in field and laboratory research to evaluate the photon-use efficiency of plants. However, most existing models for PI curves focus on the relationship between the photosynthetic rate (Pn) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and do not take account of the influence of environmental factors on the curve. In the present study, we used a new non-competitive inhibited Michaelis-Menten model (NIMM) to predict the co-variation of Pn, PAR, and the relative pollution index (I). We then evaluated the model with published data and our own experimental data. The results indicate that the Pn of plants decreased with increasing I in the environment and, as predicted, were all fitted well by the NIMM model. Therefore, our model provides a robust basis to evaluate and understand the influence of environmental pollution on plant photosynthesis. PMID:26561863

Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility-in-mean model with leverage and asymmetrically heavy-tailed error using generalized hyperbolic skew Student's t-distribution.

PubMed

Leão, William L; Abanto-Valle, Carlos A; Chen, Ming-Hui

2017-01-01

A stochastic volatility-in-mean model with correlated errors using the generalized hyperbolic skew Student-t (GHST) distribution provides a robust alternative to the parameter estimation for daily stock returns in the absence of normality. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm is developed for parameter estimation. The deviance information, the Bayesian predictive information and the log-predictive score criterion are used to assess the fit of the proposed model. The proposed method is applied to an analysis of the daily stock return data from the Standard & Poor's 500 index (S&P 500). The empirical results reveal that the stochastic volatility-in-mean model with correlated errors and GH-ST distribution leads to a significant improvement in the goodness-of-fit for the S&P 500 index returns dataset over the usual normal model.

A Unified Sediment Transport Model for Inlet Application

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

of the development was to arrive at general sediment transport formulas suitable for a wide range of hydrodynamic, sedimentologic , and morphologic...wide range of hydrodynamic, sedimentologic , and morphologic conditions that yield reliable and robust predictions. In this paper such formulas are...hydrodynamic, sedimentologic , and morphologic conditions that prevail around coastal inlets. Thus, the formulas yield transport rates under waves and currents

A Finite Mixture Method for Outlier Detection and Robustness in Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beath, Ken J.

2014-01-01

When performing a meta-analysis unexplained variation above that predicted by within study variation is usually modeled by a random effect. However, in some cases, this is not sufficient to explain all the variation because of outlier or unusual studies. A previously described method is to define an outlier as a study requiring a higher random…

Independent data validation of an in vitro method for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In vitro bioaccessibility assays (IVBA) estimate arsenic (As) relative bioavailability (RBA) in contaminated soils to improve the accuracy of site-specific human exposure assessments and risk calculations. For an IVBA assay to gain acceptance for use in risk assessment, it must be shown to reliably predict in vivo RBA that is determined in an established animal model. Previous studies correlating soil As IVBA with RBA have been limited by the use of few soil types as the source of As. Furthermore, the predictive value of As IVBA assays has not been validated using an independent set of As-contaminated soils. Therefore, the current study was undertaken to develop a robust linear model to predict As RBA in mice using an IVBA assay and to independently validate the predictive capability of this assay using a unique set of As-contaminated soils. Thirty-six As-contaminated soils varying in soil type, As contaminant source, and As concentration were included in this study, with 27 soils used for initial model development and nine soils used for independent model validation. The initial model reliably predicted As RBA values in the independent data set, with a mean As RBA prediction error of 5.3% (range 2.4 to 8.4%). Following validation, all 36 soils were used for final model development, resulting in a linear model with the equation: RBA = 0.59 * IVBA + 9.8 and R2 of 0.78. The in vivo-in vitro correlation and independent data validation presented here provide

Ensemble modeling to predict habitat suitability for a large-scale disturbance specialist

PubMed Central

Latif, Quresh S; Saab, Victoria A; Dudley, Jonathan G; Hollenbeck, Jeff P

2013-01-01

To conserve habitat for disturbance specialist species, ecologists must identify where individuals will likely settle in newly disturbed areas. Habitat suitability models can predict which sites at new disturbances will most likely attract specialists. Without validation data from newly disturbed areas, however, the best approach for maximizing predictive accuracy can be unclear (Northwestern U.S.A.). We predicted habitat suitability for nesting Black-backed Woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus; a burned-forest specialist) at 20 recently (≤6 years postwildfire) burned locations in Montana using models calibrated with data from three locations in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. We developed 8 models using three techniques (weighted logistic regression, Maxent, and Mahalanobis D2 models) and various combinations of four environmental variables describing burn severity, the north–south orientation of topographic slope, and prefire canopy cover. After translating model predictions into binary classifications (0 = low suitability to unsuitable, 1 = high to moderate suitability), we compiled “ensemble predictions,” consisting of the number of models (0–8) predicting any given site as highly suitable. The suitability status for 40% of the area burned by eastside Montana wildfires was consistent across models and therefore robust to uncertainty in the relative accuracy of particular models and in alternative ecological hypotheses they described. Ensemble predictions exhibited two desirable properties: (1) a positive relationship with apparent rates of nest occurrence at calibration locations and (2) declining model agreement outside surveyed environments consistent with our reduced confidence in novel (i.e., “no-analogue”) environments. Areas of disagreement among models suggested where future surveys could help validate and refine models for an improved understanding of Black-backed Woodpecker nesting habitat relationships. Ensemble predictions presented here can help guide managers attempting to balance salvage logging with habitat conservation in burned-forest landscapes where black-backed woodpecker nest location data are not immediately available. Ensemble modeling represents a promising tool for guiding conservation of large-scale disturbance specialists. PMID:24340177

Self-organized synchronization of digital phase-locked loops with delayed coupling in theory and experiment

PubMed Central

Wetzel, Lucas; Jörg, David J.; Pollakis, Alexandros; Rave, Wolfgang; Fettweis, Gerhard; Jülicher, Frank

2017-01-01

Self-organized synchronization occurs in a variety of natural and technical systems but has so far only attracted limited attention as an engineering principle. In distributed electronic systems, such as antenna arrays and multi-core processors, a common time reference is key to coordinate signal transmission and processing. Here we show how the self-organized synchronization of mutually coupled digital phase-locked loops (DPLLs) can provide robust clocking in large-scale systems. We develop a nonlinear phase description of individual and coupled DPLLs that takes into account filter impulse responses and delayed signal transmission. Our phase model permits analytical expressions for the collective frequencies of synchronized states, the analysis of stability properties and the time scale of synchronization. In particular, we find that signal filtering introduces stability transitions that are not found in systems without filtering. To test our theoretical predictions, we designed and carried out experiments using networks of off-the-shelf DPLL integrated circuitry. We show that the phase model can quantitatively predict the existence, frequency, and stability of synchronized states. Our results demonstrate that mutually delay-coupled DPLLs can provide robust and self-organized synchronous clocking in electronic systems. PMID:28207779

Uncertainties propagation and global sensitivity analysis of the frequency response function of piezoelectric energy harvesters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz, Rafael O.; Meruane, Viviana

2017-06-01

The goal of this work is to describe a framework to propagate uncertainties in piezoelectric energy harvesters (PEHs). These uncertainties are related to the incomplete knowledge of the model parameters. The framework presented could be employed to conduct prior robust stochastic predictions. The prior analysis assumes a known probability density function for the uncertain variables and propagates the uncertainties to the output voltage. The framework is particularized to evaluate the behavior of the frequency response functions (FRFs) in PEHs, while its implementation is illustrated by the use of different unimorph and bimorph PEHs subjected to different scenarios: free of uncertainties, common uncertainties, and uncertainties as a product of imperfect clamping. The common variability associated with the PEH parameters are tabulated and reported. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the Sobol indices. Results indicate that the elastic modulus, density, and thickness of the piezoelectric layer are the most relevant parameters of the output variability. The importance of including the model parameter uncertainties in the estimation of the FRFs is revealed. In this sense, the present framework constitutes a powerful tool in the robust design and prediction of PEH performance.

Maximum likelihood Bayesian model averaging and its predictive analysis for groundwater reactive transport models

DOE PAGES

Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Curtis, Gary P.

2015-08-01

While Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has been widely used in groundwater modeling, it is infrequently applied to groundwater reactive transport modeling because of multiple sources of uncertainty in the coupled hydrogeochemical processes and because of the long execution time of each model run. To resolve these problems, this study analyzed different levels of uncertainty in a hierarchical way, and used the maximum likelihood version of BMA, i.e., MLBMA, to improve the computational efficiency. Our study demonstrates the applicability of MLBMA to groundwater reactive transport modeling in a synthetic case in which twenty-seven reactive transport models were designed to predict themore » reactive transport of hexavalent uranium (U(VI)) based on observations at a former uranium mill site near Naturita, CO. Moreover, these reactive transport models contain three uncertain model components, i.e., parameterization of hydraulic conductivity, configuration of model boundary, and surface complexation reactions that simulate U(VI) adsorption. These uncertain model components were aggregated into the alternative models by integrating a hierarchical structure into MLBMA. The modeling results of the individual models and MLBMA were analyzed to investigate their predictive performance. The predictive logscore results show that MLBMA generally outperforms the best model, suggesting that using MLBMA is a sound strategy to achieve more robust model predictions relative to a single model. MLBMA works best when the alternative models are structurally distinct and have diverse model predictions. When correlation in model structure exists, two strategies were used to improve predictive performance by retaining structurally distinct models or assigning smaller prior model probabilities to correlated models. Since the synthetic models were designed using data from the Naturita site, the results of this study are expected to provide guidance for real-world modeling. Finally, limitations of applying MLBMA to the synthetic study and future real-world modeling are discussed.« less

Development of a Risk Prediction Model and Clinical Risk Score for Isolated Tricuspid Valve Surgery.

PubMed

LaPar, Damien J; Likosky, Donald S; Zhang, Min; Theurer, Patty; Fonner, C Edwin; Kern, John A; Bolling, Stephen F; Drake, Daniel H; Speir, Alan M; Rich, Jeffrey B; Kron, Irving L; Prager, Richard L; Ailawadi, Gorav

2018-02-01

While tricuspid valve (TV) operations remain associated with high mortality (∼8-10%), no robust prediction models exist to support clinical decision-making. We developed a preoperative clinical risk model with an easily calculable clinical risk score (CRS) to predict mortality and major morbidity after isolated TV surgery. Multi-state Society of Thoracic Surgeons database records were evaluated for 2,050 isolated TV repair and replacement operations for any etiology performed at 50 hospitals (2002-2014). Parsimonious preoperative risk prediction models were developed using multi-level mixed effects regression to estimate mortality and composite major morbidity risk. Model results were utilized to establish a novel CRS for patients undergoing TV operations. Models were evaluated for discrimination and calibration. Operative mortality and composite major morbidity rates were 9% and 42%, respectively. Final regression models performed well (both P<0.001, AUC = 0.74 and 0.76) and included preoperative factors: age, gender, stroke, hemodialysis, ejection fraction, lung disease, NYHA class, reoperation and urgent or emergency status (all P<0.05). A simple CRS from 0-10+ was highly associated (P<0.001) with incremental increases in predicted mortality and major morbidity. Predicted mortality risk ranged from 2%-34% across CRS categories, while predicted major morbidity risk ranged from 13%-71%. Mortality and major morbidity after isolated TV surgery can be predicted using preoperative patient data from the STS Adult Cardiac Database. A simple clinical risk score predicts mortality and major morbidity after isolated TV surgery. This score may facilitate perioperative counseling and identification of suitable patients for TV surgery. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a Drug-Response Modeling Framework to Identify Cell Line Derived Translational Biomarkers That Can Predict Treatment Outcome to Erlotinib or Sorafenib

PubMed Central

Li, Bin; Shin, Hyunjin; Gulbekyan, Georgy; Pustovalova, Olga; Nikolsky, Yuri; Hope, Andrew; Bessarabova, Marina; Schu, Matthew; Kolpakova-Hart, Elona; Merberg, David; Dorner, Andrew; Trepicchio, William L.

2015-01-01

Development of drug responsive biomarkers from pre-clinical data is a critical step in drug discovery, as it enables patient stratification in clinical trial design. Such translational biomarkers can be validated in early clinical trial phases and utilized as a patient inclusion parameter in later stage trials. Here we present a study on building accurate and selective drug sensitivity models for Erlotinib or Sorafenib from pre-clinical in vitro data, followed by validation of individual models on corresponding treatment arms from patient data generated in the BATTLE clinical trial. A Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) based modeling framework was designed and implemented, using a special splitting strategy and canonical pathways to capture robust information for model building. Erlotinib and Sorafenib predictive models could be used to identify a sub-group of patients that respond better to the corresponding treatment, and these models are specific to the corresponding drugs. The model derived signature genes reflect each drug’s known mechanism of action. Also, the models predict each drug’s potential cancer indications consistent with clinical trial results from a selection of globally normalized GEO expression datasets. PMID:26107615

Development of a Drug-Response Modeling Framework to Identify Cell Line Derived Translational Biomarkers That Can Predict Treatment Outcome to Erlotinib or Sorafenib.

PubMed

Li, Bin; Shin, Hyunjin; Gulbekyan, Georgy; Pustovalova, Olga; Nikolsky, Yuri; Hope, Andrew; Bessarabova, Marina; Schu, Matthew; Kolpakova-Hart, Elona; Merberg, David; Dorner, Andrew; Trepicchio, William L

2015-01-01

Development of drug responsive biomarkers from pre-clinical data is a critical step in drug discovery, as it enables patient stratification in clinical trial design. Such translational biomarkers can be validated in early clinical trial phases and utilized as a patient inclusion parameter in later stage trials. Here we present a study on building accurate and selective drug sensitivity models for Erlotinib or Sorafenib from pre-clinical in vitro data, followed by validation of individual models on corresponding treatment arms from patient data generated in the BATTLE clinical trial. A Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) based modeling framework was designed and implemented, using a special splitting strategy and canonical pathways to capture robust information for model building. Erlotinib and Sorafenib predictive models could be used to identify a sub-group of patients that respond better to the corresponding treatment, and these models are specific to the corresponding drugs. The model derived signature genes reflect each drug's known mechanism of action. Also, the models predict each drug's potential cancer indications consistent with clinical trial results from a selection of globally normalized GEO expression datasets.

A Pathway Based Classification Method for Analyzing Gene Expression for Alzheimer's Disease Diagnosis.

PubMed

Voyle, Nicola; Keohane, Aoife; Newhouse, Stephen; Lunnon, Katie; Johnston, Caroline; Soininen, Hilkka; Kloszewska, Iwona; Mecocci, Patrizia; Tsolaki, Magda; Vellas, Bruno; Lovestone, Simon; Hodges, Angela; Kiddle, Steven; Dobson, Richard Jb

2016-01-01

Recent studies indicate that gene expression levels in blood may be able to differentiate subjects with Alzheimer's disease (AD) from normal elderly controls and mild cognitively impaired (MCI) subjects. However, there is limited replicability at the single marker level. A pathway-based interpretation of gene expression may prove more robust. This study aimed to investigate whether a case/control classification model built on pathway level data was more robust than a gene level model and may consequently perform better in test data. The study used two batches of gene expression data from the AddNeuroMed (ANM) and Dementia Case Registry (DCR) cohorts. Our study used Illumina Human HT-12 Expression BeadChips to collect gene expression from blood samples. Random forest modeling with recursive feature elimination was used to predict case/control status. Age and APOE ɛ4 status were used as covariates for all analysis. Gene and pathway level models performed similarly to each other and to a model based on demographic information only. Any potential increase in concordance from the novel pathway level approach used here has not lead to a greater predictive ability in these datasets. However, we have only tested one method for creating pathway level scores. Further, we have been able to benchmark pathways against genes in datasets that had been extensively harmonized. Further work should focus on the use of alternative methods for creating pathway level scores, in particular those that incorporate pathway topology, and the use of an endophenotype based approach.

Accurate Sound Localization in Reverberant Environments is Mediated by Robust Encoding of Spatial Cues in the Auditory Midbrain

PubMed Central

Devore, Sasha; Ihlefeld, Antje; Hancock, Kenneth; Shinn-Cunningham, Barbara; Delgutte, Bertrand

2009-01-01

In reverberant environments, acoustic reflections interfere with the direct sound arriving at a listener’s ears, distorting the spatial cues for sound localization. Yet, human listeners have little difficulty localizing sounds in most settings. Because reverberant energy builds up over time, the source location is represented relatively faithfully during the early portion of a sound, but this representation becomes increasingly degraded later in the stimulus. We show that the directional sensitivity of single neurons in the auditory midbrain of anesthetized cats follows a similar time course, although onset dominance in temporal response patterns results in more robust directional sensitivity than expected, suggesting a simple mechanism for improving directional sensitivity in reverberation. In parallel behavioral experiments, we demonstrate that human lateralization judgments are consistent with predictions from a population rate model decoding the observed midbrain responses, suggesting a subcortical origin for robust sound localization in reverberant environments. PMID:19376072

A Reconfiguration Scheme for Accommodating Actuator Failures in Multi-Input, Multi-Output Flight Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siwakosit, W.; Hess, R. A.; Bacon, Bart (Technical Monitor); Burken, John (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A multi-input, multi-output reconfigurable flight control system design utilizing a robust controller and an adaptive filter is presented. The robust control design consists of a reduced-order, linear dynamic inversion controller with an outer-loop compensation matrix derived from Quantitative Feedback Theory (QFT). A principle feature of the scheme is placement of the adaptive filter in series with the QFT compensator thus exploiting the inherent robustness of the nominal flight control system in the presence of plant uncertainties. An example of the scheme is presented in a pilot-in-the-loop computer simulation using a simplified model of the lateral-directional dynamics of the NASA F18 High Angle of Attack Research Vehicle (HARV) that included nonlinear anti-wind up logic and actuator limitations. Prediction of handling qualities and pilot-induced oscillation tendencies in the presence of these nonlinearities is included in the example.

Multi-objective robust design of energy-absorbing components using coupled process-performance simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, Ali; Acar, Erdem; Rais-Rohani, Masoud

2014-02-01

The stochastic uncertainties associated with the material, process and product are represented and propagated to process and performance responses. A finite element-based sequential coupled process-performance framework is used to simulate the forming and energy absorption responses of a thin-walled tube in a manner that both material properties and component geometry can evolve from one stage to the next for better prediction of the structural performance measures. Metamodelling techniques are used to develop surrogate models for manufacturing and performance responses. One set of metamodels relates the responses to the random variables whereas the other relates the mean and standard deviation of the responses to the selected design variables. A multi-objective robust design optimization problem is formulated and solved to illustrate the methodology and the influence of uncertainties on manufacturability and energy absorption of a metallic double-hat tube. The results are compared with those of deterministic and augmented robust optimization problems.

A robust classic.

PubMed

Kutzner, Florian; Vogel, Tobias; Freytag, Peter; Fiedler, Klaus

2011-01-01

In the present research, we argue for the robustness of illusory correlations (ICs, Hamilton & Gifford, 1976) regarding two boundary conditions suggested in previous research. First, we argue that ICs are maintained under extended experience. Using simulations, we derive conflicting predictions. Whereas noise-based accounts predict ICs to be maintained (Fielder, 2000; Smith, 1991), a prominent account based on discrepancy-reducing feedback learning predicts ICs to disappear (Van Rooy et al., 2003). An experiment involving 320 observations with majority and minority members supports the claim that ICs are maintained. Second, we show that actively using the stereotype to make predictions that are met with reward and punishment does not eliminate the bias. In addition, participants' operant reactions afford a novel online measure of ICs. In sum, our findings highlight the robustness of ICs that can be explained as a result of unbiased but noisy learning.

QSRR modeling for the chromatographic retention behavior of some β-lactam antibiotics using forward and firefly variable selection algorithms coupled with multiple linear regression.

PubMed

Fouad, Marwa A; Tolba, Enas H; El-Shal, Manal A; El Kerdawy, Ahmed M

2018-05-11

The justified continuous emerging of new β-lactam antibiotics provokes the need for developing suitable analytical methods that accelerate and facilitate their analysis. A face central composite experimental design was adopted using different levels of phosphate buffer pH, acetonitrile percentage at zero time and after 15 min in a gradient program to obtain the optimum chromatographic conditions for the elution of 31 β-lactam antibiotics. Retention factors were used as the target property to build two QSRR models utilizing the conventional forward selection and the advanced nature-inspired firefly algorithm for descriptor selection, coupled with multiple linear regression. The obtained models showed high performance in both internal and external validation indicating their robustness and predictive ability. Williams-Hotelling test and student's t-test showed that there is no statistical significant difference between the models' results. Y-randomization validation showed that the obtained models are due to significant correlation between the selected molecular descriptors and the analytes' chromatographic retention. These results indicate that the generated FS-MLR and FFA-MLR models are showing comparable quality on both the training and validation levels. They also gave comparable information about the molecular features that influence the retention behavior of β-lactams under the current chromatographic conditions. We can conclude that in some cases simple conventional feature selection algorithm can be used to generate robust and predictive models comparable to that are generated using advanced ones. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sampling design considerations for demographic studies: a case of colonial seabirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, William L.; Converse, Sarah J.; Doherty, Paul F.; Naughton, Maura B.; Anders, Angela; Hines, James E.; Flint, Elizabeth

2009-01-01

For the purposes of making many informed conservation decisions, the main goal for data collection is to assess population status and allow prediction of the consequences of candidate management actions. Reducing the bias and variance of estimates of population parameters reduces uncertainty in population status and projections, thereby reducing the overall uncertainty under which a population manager must make a decision. In capture-recapture studies, imperfect detection of individuals, unobservable life-history states, local movement outside study areas, and tag loss can cause bias or precision problems with estimates of population parameters. Furthermore, excessive disturbance to individuals during capture?recapture sampling may be of concern because disturbance may have demographic consequences. We address these problems using as an example a monitoring program for Black-footed Albatross (Phoebastria nigripes) and Laysan Albatross (Phoebastria immutabilis) nesting populations in the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. To mitigate these estimation problems, we describe a synergistic combination of sampling design and modeling approaches. Solutions include multiple capture periods per season and multistate, robust design statistical models, dead recoveries and incidental observations, telemetry and data loggers, buffer areas around study plots to neutralize the effect of local movements outside study plots, and double banding and statistical models that account for band loss. We also present a variation on the robust capture?recapture design and a corresponding statistical model that minimizes disturbance to individuals. For the albatross case study, this less invasive robust design was more time efficient and, when used in combination with a traditional robust design, reduced the standard error of detection probability by 14% with only two hours of additional effort in the field. These field techniques and associated modeling approaches are applicable to studies of most taxa being marked and in some cases have individually been applied to studies of birds, fish, herpetofauna, and mammals.

Mechanically robust microfluidics and bulk wave acoustics to sort microparticles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dauson, Erin R.; Gregory, Kelvin B.; Greve, David W.; Healy, Gregory P.; Oppenheim, Irving J.

2016-04-01

Sorting microparticles (or cells, or bacteria) is significant for scientific, medical and industrial purposes. Research groups have used lithium niobate SAW devices to produce standing waves, and then to align microparticles at the node lines in polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS, silicone) microfluidic channels. The "tilted angle" (skewed) configuration is a recent breakthrough producing particle trajectories that cross multiple node lines, making it practical to sort particles. However, lithium niobate wafers and PDMS microfluidic channels are not mechanically robust. We demonstrate "tilted angle" microparticle sorting in novel devices that are robust, rapidly prototyped, and manufacturable. We form our microfluidic system in a rigid polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA, acrylic) prism, sandwiched by lead-zirconium-titanate (PZT) wafers, operating in through-thickness mode with inertial backing, that produce standing bulk waves. The overall configuration is compact and mechanically robust, and actuating PZT wafers in through-thickness mode is highly efficient. Moving to this novel configuration introduced new acoustics questions involving internal reflections, but we show experimental images confirming the intended nodal geometry. Microparticles in "tilted angle" devices display undulating trajectories, where deviation from the straight path increases with particle diameter and with excitation voltage to create the mechanism by which particles are sorted. We show a simplified analytical model by which a "phase space" is constructed to characterize effective particle sorting, and we compare our experimental data to the predictions from that simplified model; precise correlation is not expected and is not observed, but the important physical trends from the model are paralleled in the measured particle trajectories.

Modelling obesity trends in Australia: unravelling the past and predicting the future.

PubMed

Hayes, A J; Lung, T W C; Bauman, A; Howard, K

2017-01-01

Modelling is increasingly being used to predict the epidemiology of obesity progression and its consequences. The aims of this study were: (a) to present and validate a model for prediction of obesity among Australian adults and (b) to use the model to project the prevalence of obesity and severe obesity by 2025. Individual level simulation combined with survey estimation techniques to model changing population body mass index (BMI) distribution over time. The model input population was derived from a nationally representative survey in 1995, representing over 12 million adults. Simulations were run for 30 years. The model was validated retrospectively and then used to predict obesity and severe obesity by 2025 among different aged cohorts and at a whole population level. The changing BMI distribution over time was well predicted by the model and projected prevalence of weight status groups agreed with population level data in 2008, 2012 and 2014.The model predicts more growth in obesity among younger than older adult cohorts. Projections at a whole population level, were that healthy weight will decline, overweight will remain steady, but obesity and severe obesity prevalence will continue to increase beyond 2016. Adult obesity prevalence was projected to increase from 19% in 1995 to 35% by 2025. Severe obesity (BMI>35), which was only around 5% in 1995, was projected to be 13% by 2025, two to three times the 1995 levels. The projected rise in obesity severe obesity will have more substantial cost and healthcare system implications than in previous decades. Having a robust epidemiological model is key to predicting these long-term costs and health outcomes into the future.

A novel numerical model to predict the morphological behavior of magnetic liquid marbles using coarse grained molecular dynamics concepts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polwaththe-Gallage, Hasitha-Nayanajith; Sauret, Emilie; Nguyen, Nam-Trung; Saha, Suvash C.; Gu, YuanTong

2018-01-01

Liquid marbles are liquid droplets coated with superhydrophobic powders whose morphology is governed by the gravitational and surface tension forces. Small liquid marbles take spherical shapes, while larger liquid marbles exhibit puddle shapes due to the dominance of gravitational forces. Liquid marbles coated with hydrophobic magnetic powders respond to an external magnetic field. This unique feature of magnetic liquid marbles is very attractive for digital microfluidics and drug delivery systems. Several experimental studies have reported the behavior of the liquid marbles. However, the complete behavior of liquid marbles under various environmental conditions is yet to be understood. Modeling techniques can be used to predict the properties and the behavior of the liquid marbles effectively and efficiently. A robust liquid marble model will inspire new experiments and provide new insights. This paper presents a novel numerical modeling technique to predict the morphology of magnetic liquid marbles based on coarse grained molecular dynamics concepts. The proposed model is employed to predict the changes in height of a magnetic liquid marble against its width and compared with the experimental data. The model predictions agree well with the experimental findings. Subsequently, the relationship between the morphology of a liquid marble with the properties of the liquid is investigated. Furthermore, the developed model is capable of simulating the reversible process of opening and closing of the magnetic liquid marble under the action of a magnetic force. The scaling analysis shows that the model predictions are consistent with the scaling laws. Finally, the proposed model is used to assess the compressibility of the liquid marbles. The proposed modeling approach has the potential to be a powerful tool to predict the behavior of magnetic liquid marbles serving as bioreactors.