Aviation Trends Related to Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project Technical Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reveley, Mary S.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Barr, Lawrence C.; Evans, Joni K.; Leone, Karen M.; Jones, Sharon M.

2014-01-01

Current and future aviation safety trends related to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project's three technical challenges (engine icing characterization and simulation capability; airframe icing simulation and engineering tool capability; and atmospheric hazard sensing and mitigation technology capability) were assessed by examining the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident database (1989 to 2008), incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) accident/incident database (1989 to 2006), and literature from various industry and government sources. The accident and incident data were examined for events involving fixed-wing airplanes operating under Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR) Parts 121, 135, and 91 for atmospheric conditions related to airframe icing, ice-crystal engine icing, turbulence, clear air turbulence, wake vortex, lightning, and low visibility (fog, low ceiling, clouds, precipitation, and low lighting). Five future aviation safety risk areas associated with the three AEST technical challenges were identified after an exhaustive survey of a variety of sources and include: approach and landing accident reduction, icing/ice detection, loss of control in flight, super density operations, and runway safety.

Evaluation of procedures for prediction of unconventional gas in the presence of geologic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.

2009-01-01

This study extends the application of local spatial nonparametric prediction models to the estimation of recoverable gas volumes in continuous-type gas plays to regimes where there is a single geologic trend. A transformation is presented, originally proposed by Tomczak, that offsets the distortions caused by the trend. This article reports on numerical experiments that compare predictive and classification performance of the local nonparametric prediction models based on the transformation with models based on Euclidean distance. The transformation offers improvement in average root mean square error when the trend is not severely misspecified. Because of the local nature of the models, even those based on Euclidean distance in the presence of trends are reasonably robust. The tests based on other model performance metrics such as prediction error associated with the high-grade tracts and the ability of the models to identify sites with the largest gas volumes also demonstrate the robustness of both local modeling approaches. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2009.

Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

PubMed

Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

2017-04-01

This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for civil service employees of a federal public health agency.

PubMed

Spears, D Ross; McNeil, Carrie; Warnock, Eli; Trapp, Jonathan; Oyinloye, Oluremi; Whitehurst, Vanessa; Decker, K C; Chapman, Sandy; Campbell, Morris; Meechan, Paul

2014-06-01

This study evaluates the predictability in temporal absences trends due to all causes (total absenteeism) among employees at a federal agency. The objective is to determine how leave trends vary within the year, and determine whether trends are predictable. Ten years of absenteeism data from an attendance system were analyzed for rates of total absence. Trends over a 10-year period followed predictable and regular patterns during a given year that correspond to major holiday periods. Temporal trends in leave among small, medium, and large facilities compared favorably with the agency as a whole. Temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for an organization can be determined using its attendance system. The ability to predict employee absenteeism rates can be extremely helpful for management in optimizing business performance and ensuring that an organization meets its mission.

A pre-marketing ALT signal predicts post-marketing liver safety.

PubMed

Moylan, Cynthia A; Suzuki, Ayako; Papay, Julie I; Yuen, Nancy A; Ames, Michael; Hunt, Christine M

2012-08-01

Drug induced liver injury during drug development is evidenced by a higher incidence of serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevations in treated versus placebo populations and termed an "ALT signal". We sought to quantify whether an ALT signal in pre-marketing clinical trials predicted post-marketing hepatotoxicity. Incidence of ALT elevations (ALT ≥ 3 times upper limits normal [× ULN]) for drug and placebo of new chemical entities and approved drugs associated with hepatotoxicity was calculated using the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) website. Post-marketing liver safety events were identified using the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (AERS). The association of FDA AERS signal score (EB05 ≥ 2) and excess risk of pre-marketing ALT elevation (difference in incidence of ALT ≥ 3× ULN in treated versus placebo) was examined. An ALT signal of ≥ 1.2% was significantly associated with a post-marketing liver safety signal (p ≤ 0.013) and a 71.4% positive predictive value. An absent ALT signal was associated with a high likelihood of post-marketing liver safety; negative predictive value of 89.7%. Daily drug dose information improved the prediction of post-marketing liver safety. A cut-off of 1.2% increase in ALT ≥ 3× ULN in treated versus placebo groups provides an easily calculated method for predicting post-marketing liver safety. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Analyzing research trends on drug safety using topic modeling.

PubMed

Zou, Chen

2018-06-01

Published drug safety data has evolved in the past decade due to scientific and technological advances in the relevant research fields. Considering that a vast amount of scientific literature has been published in this area, it is not easy to identify the key information. Topic modeling has emerged as a powerful tool to extract meaningful information from a large volume of unstructured texts. Areas covered: We analyzed the titles and abstracts of 4347 articles in four journals dedicated to drug safety from 2007 to 2016. We applied Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) model to extract 50 main topics, and conducted trend analysis to explore the temporal popularity of these topics over years. Expert Opinion/Commentary: We found that 'benefit-risk assessment and communication', 'diabetes' and 'biologic therapy for autoimmune diseases' are the top 3 most published topics. The topics relevant to the use of electronic health records/observational data for safety surveillance are becoming increasingly popular over time. Meanwhile, there is a slight decrease in research on signal detection based on spontaneous reporting, although spontaneous reporting still plays an important role in benefit-risk assessment. The topics related to medical conditions and treatment showed highly dynamic patterns over time.

Real-Time Safety Monitoring and Prediction for the National Airspace System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roychoudhury, Indranil

2016-01-01

As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have both an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecasts, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. To this end, we have developed a Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) that first, estimates the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Then, given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, the framework predicts the evolution of the NAS, i.e., the future state, and analyzes these future states to predict the occurrence of unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace safety metrics is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type and or parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach by predicting the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress.

Predictive Microbiology and Food Safety Applications

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mathematical modeling is the science of systematic study of recurrent events or phenomena. When models are properly developed, their applications may save costs and time. For microbial food safety research and applications, predictive microbiology models may be developed based on the fact that most ...

Dynamic Model Predicting Overweight, Obesity, and Extreme Obesity Prevalence Trends

PubMed Central

Thomas, Diana M.; Weedermann, Marion; Fuemmeler, Bernard F.; Martin, Corby K.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Bredlau, Carl; Heymsfield, Steven B.; Ravussin, Eric; Bouchard, Claude

2013-01-01

Objective Obesity prevalence in the United States (US) appears to be leveling, but the reasons behind the plateau remain unknown. Mechanistic insights can be provided from a mathematical model. The objective of this study is to model known multiple population parameters associated with changes in body mass index (BMI) classes and to establish conditions under which obesity prevalence will plateau. Design and Methods A differential equation system was developed that predicts population-wide obesity prevalence trends. The model considers both social and non-social influences on weight gain, incorporates other known parameters affecting obesity trends, and allows for country specific population growth. Results The dynamic model predicts that: obesity prevalence is a function of birth rate and the probability of being born in an obesogenic environment; obesity prevalence will plateau independent of current prevention strategies; and the US prevalence of obesity, overweight, and extreme obesity will plateau by about 2030 at 28%, 32%, and 9%, respectively. Conclusions The US prevalence of obesity is stabilizing and will plateau, independent of current preventative strategies. This trend has important implications in accurately evaluating the impact of various anti-obesity strategies aimed at reducing obesity prevalence. PMID:23804487

Dynamic model predicting overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity prevalence trends.

PubMed

Thomas, Diana M; Weedermann, Marion; Fuemmeler, Bernard F; Martin, Corby K; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V; Bredlau, Carl; Heymsfield, Steven B; Ravussin, Eric; Bouchard, Claude

2014-02-01

Obesity prevalence in the United States appears to be leveling, but the reasons behind the plateau remain unknown. Mechanistic insights can be provided from a mathematical model. The objective of this study is to model known multiple population parameters associated with changes in body mass index (BMI) classes and to establish conditions under which obesity prevalence will plateau. A differential equation system was developed that predicts population-wide obesity prevalence trends. The model considers both social and nonsocial influences on weight gain, incorporates other known parameters affecting obesity trends, and allows for country specific population growth. The dynamic model predicts that: obesity prevalence is a function of birthrate and the probability of being born in an obesogenic environment; obesity prevalence will plateau independent of current prevention strategies; and the US prevalence of overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity will plateau by about 2030 at 28%, 32%, and 9% respectively. The US prevalence of obesity is stabilizing and will plateau, independent of current preventative strategies. This trend has important implications in accurately evaluating the impact of various anti-obesity strategies aimed at reducing obesity prevalence. Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.

Caffeine-based food supplements and beverages: Trends of consumption for performance purposes and safety concerns.

PubMed

Bessada, Sílvia M F; Alves, Rita C; Oliveira, M Beatriz P P

2018-07-01

Nowadays, daily food supplementation regarding the improvement of physical and mental performance is a growing trend in sport practitioners, young students and active people. Food supplements are foodstuffs, labeled under food law and not obliged to safety assessments before their commercialization. Several products are commercialized claiming ergogenic effects as marketing strategies. Caffeine is often one of their main ingredients, as it increases both physical performance and concentration. This manuscript presents a general overview of the current caffeine-based food supplements and energy drinks available in the Portuguese market, as well as the consuming trends regarding their ergogenic effects, performance purposes, and active ingredients. Product claims, recommended daily intakes, caffeine pharmacology, and safety concerns aspects are also discussed aspects. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating and Predicting Patient Safety for Medical Devices With Integral Information Technology

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-01-01

have the potential to become solid tools for manufacturers, purchasers, and consumers to evaluate patient safety issues in various health related...323 Evaluating and Predicting Patient Safety for Medical Devices with Integral Information Technology Jiajie Zhang, Vimla L. Patel, Todd R...errors are due to inappropriate designs for user interactions, rather than mechanical failures. Evaluating and predicting patient safety in medical

Predicting performance and safety based on driver fatigue.

PubMed

Mollicone, Daniel; Kan, Kevin; Mott, Chris; Bartels, Rachel; Bruneau, Steve; van Wollen, Matthew; Sparrow, Amy R; Van Dongen, Hans P A

2018-04-02

Fatigue causes decrements in vigilant attention and reaction time and is a major safety hazard in the trucking industry. There is a need to quantify the relationship between driver fatigue and safety in terms of operationally relevant measures. Hard-braking events are a suitable measure for this purpose as they are relatively easily observed and are correlated with collisions and near-crashes. We developed an analytic approach that predicts driver fatigue based on a biomathematical model and then estimates hard-braking events as a function of predicted fatigue, controlling for time of day to account for systematic variations in exposure (traffic density). The analysis used de-identified data from a previously published, naturalistic field study of 106 U.S. commercial motor vehicle (CMV) drivers. Data analyzed included drivers' official duty logs, sleep patterns measured around the clock using wrist actigraphy, and continuous recording of vehicle data to capture hard-braking events. The curve relating predicted fatigue to hard-braking events showed that the frequency of hard-braking events increased as predicted fatigue levels worsened. For each increment on the fatigue scale, the frequency of hard-braking events increased by 7.8%. The results provide proof of concept for a novel approach that predicts fatigue based on drivers' sleep patterns and estimates driving performance in terms of an operational metric related to safety. The approach can be translated to practice by CMV operators to achieve a fatigue risk profile specific to their own settings, in order to support data-driven decisions about fatigue countermeasures that cost-effectively deliver quantifiable operational benefits. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Breast Cancer Trend in Iran from 2000 to 2009 and Prediction till 2020 using a Trend Analysis Method.

PubMed

Zahmatkesh, Bibihajar; Keramat, Afsaneh; Alavi, Nasrinossadat; Khosravi, Ahmad; Kousha, Ahmad; Motlagh, Ali Ghanbari; Darman, Mahboobeh; Partovipour, Elham; Chaman, Reza

2016-01-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide with a rising incidence rate in most countries. Considering the increase in life expectancy and change in lifestyle of Iranian women, this study investigated the age-adjusted trend of breast cancer incidence during 2000-2009 and predicted its incidence to 2020. The 1997 and 2006 census results were used for the projection of female population by age through the cohort-component method over the studied years. Data from the Iranian cancer registration system were used to calculate the annual incidence rate of breast cancer. The age-adjusted incidence rate was then calculated using the WHO standard population distribution. The five-year-age-specific incidence rates were also obtained for each year and future incidence was determined using the trend analysis method. Annual percentage change (APC) was calculated through the joinpoint regression method. The bias adjusted incidence rate of breast cancer increased from 16.7 per 100,000 women in 2000 to 33.6 per 100,000 women in 2009. The incidence of breast cancer had a growing trend in almost all age groups above 30 years over the studied years. In this period, the age groups of 45-65 years had the highest incidence. Investigation into the joinpoint curve showed that the curve had a steep slope with an APC of 23.4% before the first joinpoint, but became milder after this. From 2005 to 2009, the APC was calculated as 2.7%, through which the incidence of breast cancer in 2020 was predicted as 63.0 per 100,000 women. The age-adjusted incidence rate of breast cancer continues to increas in Iranian women. It is predicted that this trend will continue until 2020. Therefore, it seems necessary to prioritize the prevention, control and care for breast cancer in Iran.

A Predictive Safety Management System Software Package Based on the Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quintana, Rolando

2003-01-01

The goal of this research was to integrate a previously validated and reliable safety model, called Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology (CHTFPM), into a software application. This led to the development of a safety management information system (PSMIS). This means that the theory or principles of the CHTFPM were incorporated in a software package; hence, the PSMIS is referred to as CHTFPM management information system (CHTFPM MIS). The purpose of the PSMIS is to reduce the time and manpower required to perform predictive studies as well as to facilitate the handling of enormous quantities of information in this type of studies. The CHTFPM theory encompasses the philosophy of looking at the concept of safety engineering from a new perspective: from a proactive, than a reactive, viewpoint. That is, corrective measures are taken before a problem instead of after it happened. That is why the CHTFPM is a predictive safety because it foresees or anticipates accidents, system failures and unacceptable risks; therefore, corrective action can be taken in order to prevent all these unwanted issues. Consequently, safety and reliability of systems or processes can be further improved by taking proactive and timely corrective actions.

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

PubMed

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Patient Safety Incident Reporting: Current Trends and Gaps Within the Canadian Health System.

PubMed

Boucaud, Sarah; Dorschner, Danielle

2016-01-01

Patient safety incidents are a national-level phenomenon, requiring a pan-Canadian approach to ensure that incidents are reported and lessons are learned and broadly disseminated. This work explores the variation in current provincial and local approaches to reporting through a literature review. Trends are consolidated and recommendations are offered to foster better alignment of existing systems. These include adopting a common terminology, defining the patient role in reporting, increasing system users' perception of safety and further investigating the areas of home and community care in ensuring standard approaches at the local level. These steps can promote alignment, reducing barriers to a future pan-Canadian reporting and learning system.

Trends in child passenger safety practices in Indiana from 2009 to 2015.

PubMed

O'Neil, Joseph; Bull, Marilyn J; Talty, Judith

2018-02-28

This study reviews trends in rear-facing direction, top tether use, booster seat use, and seating position for children 12 years or younger among motor vehicle passengers in Indiana. This is an observational, cross-sectional survey of drivers transporting children 15 years and younger collected at 25 convenience locations randomly selected in Indiana during summers of 2009-2015. Observations were conducted by certified child passenger safety technicians (CPST). As the driver completed a written survey collecting demographic data on the driver, the CPST recorded the child demographic data, vehicle seating location, the type of restraint, direction the car safety seat (CSS) was facing, and use of the CSS harness or safety belt as appropriate. Data were analyzed for infants and toddlers younger than 24 months, children in forward-facing CSS, booster seat use, and seating position for children 12 years or younger. During the study period, 4,876 drivers were queried, and 7,725 children 15 years and younger were observed in motor vehicles. Between 2009 and 2015, 1,115 infants and toddlers (age birth to 23 months) were observed in motor vehicles. For infants <1 year, rear-facing increased from 84% to 91%. During the study years the greatest increase in rear facing was for toddlers age 12-17 months (12-61%). Rear facing for those from 18-23 months did not significantly change. Of the 1,653 vehicles observed with a forward-facing car seat, using either the seat belt system or lower anchors, an average of 27% had the top tether attached. For installations of forward-facing seats using the lower anchor, 66% employed the top tether. Among children age 4-7 years observed booster seat use decreased from 72% to 65% during the observation period. Finally, for vehicle seating position, in our sample, more than 85% of children 12 years or younger were seated in a rear seat vehicle position. Unfortunately, 31% of 8- to 12-year-old children were observed in the front seat

Prediction of Driving Safety in Individuals with Homonymous Hemianopia and Quadrantanopia from Clinical Neuroimaging

PubMed Central

Vaphiades, Michael S.; Kline, Lanning B.; McGwin, Gerald; Owsley, Cynthia; Shah, Ritu; Wood, Joanne M.

2014-01-01

Background. This study aimed to determine whether it is possible to predict driving safety of individuals with homonymous hemianopia or quadrantanopia based upon a clinical review of neuroimages that are routinely available in clinical practice. Methods. Two experienced neuroophthalmologists viewed a summary report of the CT/MRI scans of 16 participants with homonymous hemianopic or quadrantanopic field defects which indicated the site and extent of the lesion and they made predictions regarding whether participants would be safe/unsafe to drive. Driving safety was independently defined at the time of the study using state-recorded motor vehicle crashes (all crashes and at-fault) for the previous 5 years and ratings of driving safety determined through a standardized on-road driving assessment by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist. Results. The ability to predict driving safety was highly variable regardless of the driving safety measure, ranging from 31% to 63% (kappa levels ranged from −0.29 to 0.04). The level of agreement between the neuroophthalmologists was only fair (kappa = 0.28). Conclusions. Clinical evaluation of summary reports of currently available neuroimages by neuroophthalmologists is not predictive of driving safety. Future research should be directed at identifying and/or developing alternative tests or strategies to better enable clinicians to make these predictions. PMID:24683493

Prediction of driving safety in individuals with homonymous hemianopia and quadrantanopia from clinical neuroimaging.

PubMed

Vaphiades, Michael S; Kline, Lanning B; McGwin, Gerald; Owsley, Cynthia; Shah, Ritu; Wood, Joanne M

2014-01-01

Background. This study aimed to determine whether it is possible to predict driving safety of individuals with homonymous hemianopia or quadrantanopia based upon a clinical review of neuroimages that are routinely available in clinical practice. Methods. Two experienced neuroophthalmologists viewed a summary report of the CT/MRI scans of 16 participants with homonymous hemianopic or quadrantanopic field defects which indicated the site and extent of the lesion and they made predictions regarding whether participants would be safe/unsafe to drive. Driving safety was independently defined at the time of the study using state-recorded motor vehicle crashes (all crashes and at-fault) for the previous 5 years and ratings of driving safety determined through a standardized on-road driving assessment by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist. Results. The ability to predict driving safety was highly variable regardless of the driving safety measure, ranging from 31% to 63% (kappa levels ranged from -0.29 to 0.04). The level of agreement between the neuroophthalmologists was only fair (kappa = 0.28). Conclusions. Clinical evaluation of summary reports of currently available neuroimages by neuroophthalmologists is not predictive of driving safety. Future research should be directed at identifying and/or developing alternative tests or strategies to better enable clinicians to make these predictions.

Sex differences in discriminating between cues predicting threat and safety.

PubMed

Day, Harriet L L; Reed, Molly M; Stevenson, Carl W

2016-09-01

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is more prevalent in women than men. PTSD is characterized by overgeneralization of fear to innocuous stimuli and involves impaired inhibition of learned fear by cues that predict safety. While evidence indicates that learned fear inhibition through extinction differs in males and females, less is known about sex differences in fear discrimination and safety learning. Here we examined auditory fear discrimination in male and female rats. In Experiment 1A, rats underwent 1-3days of discrimination training consisting of one tone predicting threat (CS+; presented with footshock) and another tone predicting safety (CS-; presented alone). Females, but not males, discriminated between the CS+ and CS- after one day of training. After 2-3days of training, however, males discriminated whereas females generalized between the CS+ and CS-. In Experiment 1B, females showed enhanced anxiety-like behaviour and locomotor activity in the open field, although these results were unlikely to explain the sex differences in fear discrimination. In Experiment 2, we found no differences in shock sensitivity between males and females. In Experiment 3, males and females again discriminated and generalized, respectively, after three days of training. Moreover, fear generalization in females resulted from impaired safety learning, as shown by a retardation test. Whereas subsequent fear conditioning to the previous CS- retarded learning in males, females showed no such retardation. These results suggest that, while females show fear discrimination with limited training, they show fear generalization with extended training due to impaired safety learning. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A systematic review of the safety climate intervention literature: Past trends and future directions.

PubMed

Lee, Jin; Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Cheung, Janelle H; Chen, Zhuo; Shaw, William S

2018-04-26

Safety climate represents the meaningfulness of safety and how safety is valued in an organization. The contributions of safety climate to organizational safety have been well documented. There is a dearth of empirical research, however, on specific safety climate interventions and their effectiveness. The present study aims at examining the trend of safety climate interventions and offering compiled information for designing and implementing evidence-based safety climate interventions. Our literature search yielded 384 titles that were inspected by three examiners. Using a stepwise process that allowed for assessment of interobserver agreement, 19 full articles were selected and reviewed. Results showed that 10 out of the 19 articles (52.6%) were based on a quasi-experimental pre- and postintervention design, whereas 42.1% (n = 8) studies were based on a mixed-design approach (including both between- and within-subject design). All interventions in these 19 studies involved either safety-/health-related communication or education/training. Improvement of safety leadership was also a common component of safety climate interventions. According to the socio-technical systems classification of intervention strategies, all studies were categorized as interventions focusing on improving organizational and managerial structure as well as the personnel subsystem; four of them also aimed at improving technological aspects of work, and five of them aimed at improving the physical work subsystem. In general, a vast majority of the studies (89.5%, n = 17) showed a statistically significant improvement in safety climate across their organizations postintervention. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Trends and predictions to 2020 in breast cancer mortality in Europe.

PubMed

Carioli, Greta; Malvezzi, Matteo; Rodriguez, Teresa; Bertuccio, Paola; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo

2017-12-01

We analyzed trends in mortality from breast cancer in women in 36 European countries and the European Union (EU) over the period 1970-2014, and predicted numbers of deaths and rates to 2020. We derived breast cancer death certification data and population figures from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases. We obtained 2020 estimates using a joinpoint regression model. Overall, EU breast cancer mortality rates (world standard) declined from 17.9/100,000 in 2002 to 15.2 in 2012. The predicted 2020 rate is 13.4/100,000. The falls were largest in young women (20-49 years, -22% between 2002 and 2012). Within the EU, declines were larger in the United Kingdom (UK) and other northern and western European countries than in most central and eastern Europe. The UK has the second lowest predicted breast cancer mortality rate in 2020 (after Spain), starting from the highest one in 1970. Breast cancer mortality is predicted to rise in Poland, where the predicted 2020 rate is 15.3/100,000. We estimated that about 32,500 breast cancer deaths will be avoided in 2020 in the EU as compared to the peak rate of 1989, and a total of 475,000 breast cancer deaths over the period 1990-2020. The overall favourable breast cancer mortality trends are mainly due to a succession of improvements in the management and treatment of breast cancer, though early diagnosis and screening played a role, too. Improving breast cancer management in central and eastern Europe is a priority. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of protein post-translational modifications: main trends and methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobolev, B. N.; Veselovsky, A. V.; Poroikov, V. V.

2014-02-01

The review summarizes main trends in the development of methods for the prediction of protein post-translational modifications (PTMs) by considering the three most common types of PTMs — phosphorylation, acetylation and glycosylation. Considerable attention is given to general characteristics of regulatory interactions associated with PTMs. Different approaches to the prediction of PTMs are analyzed. Most of the methods are based only on the analysis of the neighbouring environment of modification sites. The related software is characterized by relatively low accuracy of PTM predictions, which may be due both to the incompleteness of training data and the features of PTM regulation. Advantages and limitations of the phylogenetic approach are considered. The prediction of PTMs using data on regulatory interactions, including the modular organization of interacting proteins, is a promising field, provided that a more carefully selected training data will be used. The bibliography includes 145 references.

Predictive models of safety based on audit findings: Part 2: Measurement of model validity.

PubMed

Hsiao, Yu-Lin; Drury, Colin; Wu, Changxu; Paquet, Victor

2013-07-01

Part 1 of this study sequence developed a human factors/ergonomics (HF/E) based classification system (termed HFACS-MA) for safety audit findings and proved its measurement reliability. In Part 2, we used the human error categories of HFACS-MA as predictors of future safety performance. Audit records and monthly safety incident reports from two airlines submitted to their regulatory authority were available for analysis, covering over 6.5 years. Two participants derived consensus results of HF/E errors from the audit reports using HFACS-MA. We adopted Neural Network and Poisson regression methods to establish nonlinear and linear prediction models respectively. These models were tested for the validity of prediction of the safety data, and only Neural Network method resulted in substantially significant predictive ability for each airline. Alternative predictions from counting of audit findings and from time sequence of safety data produced some significant results, but of much smaller magnitude than HFACS-MA. The use of HF/E analysis of audit findings provided proactive predictors of future safety performance in the aviation maintenance field. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Mortality Trends After a Voluntary Checklist-based Surgical Safety Collaborative.

PubMed

Haynes, Alex B; Edmondson, Lizabeth; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Molina, George; Neville, Bridget A; Singer, Sara J; Moonan, Aunyika T; Childers, Ashley Kay; Foster, Richard; Gibbons, Lorri R; Gawande, Atul A; Berry, William R

2017-12-01

To determine whether completion of a voluntary, checklist-based surgical quality improvement program is associated with reduced 30-day postoperative mortality. Despite evidence of efficacy of team-based surgical safety checklists in improving perioperative outcomes in research trials, effective methods of population-based implementation have been lacking. The Safe Surgery 2015 South Carolina program was designed to foster state-wide engagement of hospitals in a voluntary, collaborative implementation of a checklist program. We compared postoperative mortality rates after inpatient surgery in South Carolina utilizing state-wide all-payer discharge claims from 2008 to 2013, linked with state vital statistics, stratifying hospitals on the basis of completion of the checklist program. Changes in risk-adjusted 30-day mortality were compared between hospitals, using propensity score-adjusted difference-in-differences analysis. Fourteen hospitals completed the program by December 2013. Before program launch, there was no difference in mortality trends between the completion cohort and all others (P = 0.33), but postoperative mortality diverged thereafter (P = 0.021). Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality among completers was 3.38% in 2010 and 2.84% in 2013 (P < 0.00001), whereas mortality among other hospitals (n = 44) was 3.50% in 2010 and 3.71% in 2013 (P = 0.3281), reflecting a 22% difference between the groups on difference-in-differences analysis (P = 0.0021). Despite similar pre-existing rates and trends of postoperative mortality, hospitals in South Carolina completing a voluntary checklist-based surgical quality improvement program had a reduction in deaths after inpatient surgery over the first 3 years of the collaborative compared with other hospitals in the state. This may indicate that effective large-scale implementation of a team-based surgical safety checklist is feasible.

Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid

2017-08-01

In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets.

PubMed

Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol; Jang, Huisu

2017-01-01

The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction.

A Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of Ozone Trend Predictions in a Two Dimensional Model. Revision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Considine, D. B.; Stolarski, R. S.; Hollandsworth, S. M.; Jackman, C. H.; Fleming, E. L.

1998-01-01

We use Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the uncertainty in predictions of total O3 trends between 1979 and 1995 made by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional (2D) model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics. The uncertainty is caused by gas-phase chemical reaction rates, photolysis coefficients, and heterogeneous reaction parameters which are model inputs. The uncertainty represents a lower bound to the total model uncertainty assuming the input parameter uncertainties are characterized correctly. Each of the Monte Carlo runs was initialized in 1970 and integrated for 26 model years through the end of 1995. This was repeated 419 times using input parameter sets generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling. The standard deviation (a) of the Monte Carlo ensemble of total 03 trend predictions is used to quantify the model uncertainty. The 34% difference between the model trend in globally and annually averaged total O3 using nominal inputs and atmospheric trends calculated from Nimbus 7 and Meteor 3 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) version 7 data is less than the 46% calculated 1 (sigma), model uncertainty, so there is no significant difference between the modeled and observed trends. In the northern hemisphere midlatitude spring the modeled and observed total 03 trends differ by more than 1(sigma) but less than 2(sigma), which we refer to as marginal significance. We perform a multiple linear regression analysis of the runs which suggests that only a few of the model reactions contribute significantly to the variance in the model predictions. The lack of significance in these comparisons suggests that they are of questionable use as guides for continuing model development. Large model/measurement differences which are many multiples of the input parameter uncertainty are seen in the meridional gradients of the trend and the peak-to-peak variations in the trends over an annual cycle. These discrepancies unambiguously indicate model formulation

Prediction Of The Expected Safety Performance Of Rural Two-Lane Highways

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

This report presents an algorithm for predicting the safety performance of a rural two-lane highway. The accident prediction algorithm consists of base models and accident modification factors for both roadway segments and at-grade intersections on r...

Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets

PubMed Central

Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol

2017-01-01

The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction. PMID:29136004

Calibrating the future highway safety manual predictive methods for Oregon state highways.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-02-01

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) was published by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in the spring of 2010. Volume 2 (Part C) of the HSM includes safety predictive methods which can be used to quantitativel...

Predicting the effectiveness of road safety campaigns through alternative research designs.

PubMed

Adamos, Giannis; Nathanail, Eftihia

2016-12-01

A large number of road safety communication campaigns have been designed and implemented in the recent years; however their explicit impact on driving behavior and road accident rates has been estimated in a rather low proportion. Based on the findings of the evaluation of three road safety communication campaigns addressing the issues of drinking and driving, seat belt usage, and driving fatigue, this paper applies different types of research designs (i.e., experimental, quasi-experimental, and non-experimental designs), when estimating the effectiveness of road safety campaigns, implements a cross-design assessment, and conducts a cross-campaign evaluation. An integrated evaluation plan was developed, taking into account the structure of evaluation questions, the definition of measurable variables, the separation of the target audience into intervention (exposed to the campaign) and control (not exposed to the campaign) groups, the selection of alternative research designs, and the appropriate data collection methods and techniques. Evaluating the implementation of different research designs in estimating the effectiveness of road safety campaigns, results showed that the separate pre-post samples design demonstrated better predictability than other designs, especially in data obtained from the intervention group after the realization of the campaign. The more constructs that were added to the independent variables, the higher the values of the predictability were. The construct that most affects behavior is intention, whereas the rest of the constructs have a lower impact on behavior. This is particularly significant in the Health Belief Model (HBM). On the other hand, behavioral beliefs, normative beliefs, and descriptive norms, are significant parameters for predicting intention according to the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The theoretical and applied implications of alternative research designs and their applicability in the evaluation of road safety

State-space based analysis and forecasting of macroscopic road safety trends in Greece.

PubMed

Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

2013-11-01

In this paper, macroscopic road safety trends in Greece are analyzed using state-space models and data for 52 years (1960-2011). Seemingly unrelated time series equations (SUTSE) models are developed first, followed by richer latent risk time-series (LRT) models. As reliable estimates of vehicle-kilometers are not available for Greece, the number of vehicles in circulation is used as a proxy to the exposure. Alternative considered models are presented and discussed, including diagnostics for the assessment of their model quality and recommendations for further enrichment of this model. Important interventions were incorporated in the models developed (1986 financial crisis, 1991 old-car exchange scheme, 1996 new road fatality definition) and found statistically significant. Furthermore, the forecasting results using data up to 2008 were compared with final actual data (2009-2011) indicating that the models perform properly, even in unusual situations, like the current strong financial crisis in Greece. Forecasting results up to 2020 are also presented and compared with the forecasts of a model that explicitly considers the currently on-going recession. Modeling the recession, and assuming that it will end by 2013, results in more reasonable estimates of risk and vehicle-kilometers for the 2020 horizon. This research demonstrates the benefits of using advanced state-space modeling techniques for modeling macroscopic road safety trends, such as allowing the explicit modeling of interventions. The challenges associated with the application of such state-of-the-art models for macroscopic phenomena, such as traffic fatalities in a region or country, are also highlighted. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that it is possible to apply such complex models using the relatively short time-series that are available in macroscopic road safety analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

PubMed Central

Boonjing, Veera; Intakosum, Sarun

2016-01-01

This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) for prediction of Thailand's SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid's prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span. PMID:27974883

Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend.

PubMed

Inthachot, Montri; Boonjing, Veera; Intakosum, Sarun

2016-01-01

This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) for prediction of Thailand's SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid's prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span.

Evaluating predictive modeling's potential to improve teleretinal screening participation in urban safety net clinics.

PubMed

Ogunyemi, Omolola; Teklehaimanot, Senait; Patty, Lauren; Moran, Erin; George, Sheba

2013-01-01

Screening guidelines for diabetic patients recommend yearly eye examinations to detect diabetic retinopathy and other forms of diabetic eye disease. However, annual screening rates for retinopathy in US urban safety net settings remain low. Using data gathered from a study of teleretinal screening in six urban safety net clinics, we assessed whether predictive modeling could be of value in identifying patients at risk of developing retinopathy. We developed and examined the accuracy of two predictive modeling approaches for diabetic retinopathy in a sample of 513 diabetic individuals, using routinely available clinical variables from retrospective medical record reviews. Bayesian networks and radial basis function (neural) networks were learned using ten-fold cross-validation. The predictive models were modestly predictive with the best model having an AUC of 0.71. Using routinely available clinical variables to predict patients at risk of developing retinopathy and to target them for annual eye screenings may be of some usefulness to safety net clinics.

How Useful Are Home Safety Behaviours for Predicting Childhood Injury? A Cohort Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kendrick, Denise; Watson, Michael; Mulvaney, Caroline; Burton, Paul

2005-01-01

Little work has examined the utility of home safety behaviours in predicting childhood injury. This study examines the relationship between safety behaviours and child injury using a cohort of 1717 families, with 2357 children aged 0-7 years. Safety behaviours, and sociodemographic and family characteristics were measured using a validated…

Trends in Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

School Planning & Management, 2002

2002-01-01

Several architects, planners, administrators, and contractors answer questions about trends related to school construction, interior design, business, security, and technology. Trends concern funding issues, specialized designs, planning for safety, technological integration, and equity in services. (EV)

Ferritin trends do not predict changes in total body iron in patients with transfusional iron overload.

PubMed

Puliyel, Mammen; Sposto, Richard; Berdoukas, Vasilios A; Hofstra, Thomas C; Nord, Anne; Carson, Susan; Wood, John; Coates, Thomas D

2014-04-01

Ferritin levels and trends are widely used to manage iron overload and assess the efficacy of prescribed iron chelation in patients with transfusional iron loading. A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 134 patients with transfusion-dependent anemia, over a period of up to 9 years. To determine whether the trends in ferritin adequately reflect the changes in total body iron, changes in ferritin between consecutive liver iron measurements by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were compared to changes in liver iron concentrations (LIC), a measure of total body iron. The time period between two consecutive LIC measurements was defined as a segment. Trends in ferritin were considered to predict the change in LIC within a segment if the change in one parameter was less than twofold that of the other, and was in the same direction. Using the exclusion criteria detailed in methods, the trends in ferritin were compared to changes in LIC in 358 segments. An agreement between ferritin trends and LIC changes was found in only 38% of the 358 segments examined. Furthermore, the change in ferritin was in opposite direction to that of LIC in 26% of the segments. Trends in ferritin were a worse predictor of changes in LIC in sickle cell disease than in thalassemia (P < 0.01). While ferritin is a convenient measure of iron status; ferritin trends were unable to predict changes in LIC in individual patients. Ferritin trends need to be interpreted with caution and confirmed by direct measurement of LIC. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pleural cancer mortality in Spain: time-trends and updating of predictions up to 2020.

PubMed

López-Abente, Gonzalo; García-Gómez, Montserrat; Menéndez-Navarro, Alfredo; Fernández-Navarro, Pablo; Ramis, Rebeca; García-Pérez, Javier; Cervantes, Marta; Ferreras, Eva; Jiménez-Muñoz, María; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

2013-11-06

A total of 2,514,346 metric tons (Mt) of asbestos were imported into Spain from 1906 until the ban on asbestos in 2002. Our objective was to study pleural cancer mortality trends as an indicator of mesothelioma mortality and update mortality predictions for the periods 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 in Spain. Log-linear Poisson models were fitted to study the effect of age, period of death and birth cohort (APC) on mortality trends. Change points in cohort- and period-effect curvatures were assessed using segmented regression. Fractional power-link APC models were used to predict mortality until 2020. In addition, an alternative model based on national asbestos consumption figures was also used to perform long-term predictions. Pleural cancer deaths increased across the study period, rising from 491 in 1976-1980 to 1,249 in 2006-2010. Predictions for the five-year period 2016-2020 indicated a total of 1,319 pleural cancer deaths (264 deaths/year). Forecasts up to 2020 indicated that this increase would continue, though the age-adjusted rates showed a levelling-off in male mortality from 2001 to 2005, corresponding to the lower risk in post-1960 generations. Among women, rates were lower and the mortality trend was also different, indicating that occupational exposure was possibly the single factor having most influence on pleural cancer mortality. The cancer mortality-related consequences of human exposure to asbestos are set to persist and remain in evidence until the last surviving members of the exposed cohorts have disappeared. It can thus be assumed that occupationally-related deaths due to pleural mesothelioma will continue to occur in Spain until at least 2040.

Occupational safety and health in construction: a review of applications and trends

PubMed Central

SUÁREZ SÁNCHEZ, Fabián Alberto; CARVAJAL PELÁEZ, Gloria Isabel; CATALÁ ALÍS, Joaquín

2017-01-01

Due to the high number of accidents that occur in construction and the consequences this has for workers, organizations, society and countries, occupational safety and health (OSH) has become a very important issue for stakeholders to take care of the human resource. For this reason, and in order to know how OSH research in the construction sector has evolved over time, this article–in which articles published in English were studied–presents an analysis of research conducted from 1930 to 2016. The classification of documents was carried out following the Occupational Safety and Health Cycle which is composed of five steps: regulation, education and training, risk assessment, risk prevention, and accident analysis. With the help of tree diagrams we show that evolution takes place. In addition, risk assessment, risk prevention, and accident analysis were the research topics with the highest number of papers. The main objective of the study was to contribute to knowledge of the subject, showing trends through an exploratory study that may serve as a starting point for further research. PMID:28179610

Occupational safety and health in construction: a review of applications and trends.

PubMed

Suárez Sánchez, Fabián Alberto; Carvajal Peláez, Gloria Isabel; Catalá Alís, Joaquín

2017-06-08

Due to the high number of accidents that occur in construction and the consequences this has for workers, organizations, society and countries, occupational safety and health (OSH) has become a very important issue for stakeholders to take care of the human resource. For this reason, and in order to know how OSH research in the construction sector has evolved over time, this article-in which articles published in English were studied-presents an analysis of research conducted from 1930 to 2016. The classification of documents was carried out following the Occupational Safety and Health Cycle which is composed of five steps: regulation, education and training, risk assessment, risk prevention, and accident analysis. With the help of tree diagrams we show that evolution takes place. In addition, risk assessment, risk prevention, and accident analysis were the research topics with the highest number of papers. The main objective of the study was to contribute to knowledge of the subject, showing trends through an exploratory study that may serve as a starting point for further research.

Evaluating predictive modeling’s potential to improve teleretinal screening participation in urban safety net clinics

PubMed Central

Ogunyemi, Omolola; Teklehaimanot, Senait; Patty, Lauren; Moran, Erin; George, Sheba

2013-01-01

Introduction Screening guidelines for diabetic patients recommend yearly eye examinations to detect diabetic retinopathy and other forms of diabetic eye disease. However, annual screening rates for retinopathy in US urban safety net settings remain low. Methods Using data gathered from a study of teleretinal screening in six urban safety net clinics, we assessed whether predictive modeling could be of value in identifying patients at risk of developing retinopathy. We developed and examined the accuracy of two predictive modeling approaches for diabetic retinopathy in a sample of 513 diabetic individuals, using routinely available clinical variables from retrospective medical record reviews. Bayesian networks and radial basis function (neural) networks were learned using ten-fold cross-validation. Results The predictive models were modestly predictive with the best model having an AUC of 0.71. Discussion Using routinely available clinical variables to predict patients at risk of developing retinopathy and to target them for annual eye screenings may be of some usefulness to safety net clinics. PMID:23920536

Trends in youth internet victimization: findings from three youth internet safety surveys 2000-2010.

PubMed

Jones, Lisa M; Mitchell, Kimberly J; Finkelhor, David

2012-02-01

The purpose of this research was to explore the trends in youth reports of unwanted online sexual solicitation, harassment, and exposure to pornography over time. The study was based on three separate cross-sectional national telephone surveys of approximately 1,500 youth Internet users, aged 10 through 17 years. Data were collected in 2000, 2005, and 2010. Nine percent of youth reported an unwanted sexual solicitation in 2010. This continued the decline in unwanted sexual solicitations that occurred between 2000 (19%) and 2005 (13%), resulting in a total 50% decrease between 2000 and 2010. Twenty-three percent of youth reported an unwanted exposure to pornography, a decline from 34% in 2005, following an increase between 2000 and 2005 (25% to 34%). However, marking the only trend to show an increase over the past 5 years, 11% of youth reported an online harassment experience, which was an increase from 9% in 2005, and 6% in 2000. Some differences in these trends were noted for subgroups of youth across age, gender, and race. The trends in unwanted experiences online over the past decade identified by three Youth Internet Safety Surveys may contradict impressions that the general population, professionals, and the media have about what is happening. Trends provide evidence for some optimism that protective adaptations to the online environment have been successful; however, online harassment appears to be increasing for youth, particularly girls, and may require additional mobilization. Copyright © 2012 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in Health Information Technology Safety: From Technology-Induced Errors to Current Approaches for Ensuring Technology Safety

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Objectives Health information technology (HIT) research findings suggested that new healthcare technologies could reduce some types of medical errors while at the same time introducing classes of medical errors (i.e., technology-induced errors). Technology-induced errors have their origins in HIT, and/or HIT contribute to their occurrence. The objective of this paper is to review current trends in the published literature on HIT safety. Methods A review and synthesis of the medical and life sciences literature focusing on the area of technology-induced error was conducted. Results There were four main trends in the literature on technology-induced error. The following areas were addressed in the literature: definitions of technology-induced errors; models, frameworks and evidence for understanding how technology-induced errors occur; a discussion of monitoring; and methods for preventing and learning about technology-induced errors. Conclusions The literature focusing on technology-induced errors continues to grow. Research has focused on the defining what an error is, models and frameworks used to understand these new types of errors, monitoring of such errors and methods that can be used to prevent these errors. More research will be needed to better understand and mitigate these types of errors. PMID:23882411

Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

PubMed

Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

2015-01-01

The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P < 0.05) and best performance compared to linear and exponential models. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict LF cases for a prospective 5 years period, covering 2013-2017. The two-stage predictive model of LF case-pattern between 2013 and 2017 was characterized by a prospective decline within the South-coast County of Grand Bassa over the forecast period and an upward case-trend within the Northern County of Nimba. Case specific exponential increase was predicted for the first 2 years (2013-2014) with a geometric increase over the next 3 years (2015-2017) in Nimba County. This paper describes a translational application of the space-time distribution pattern of LF epidemics, 2008-2012 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

The structure and emerging trends of construction safety management research: a bibliometric review.

PubMed

Liang, Huakang; Zhang, Shoujian; Su, Yikun

2018-03-29

Recently, construction safety management (CSM) practices and systems have become important topics for stakeholders to take care of human resources. However, few studies have attempted to map the global research on CSM. A comprehensive bibliometric review was conducted in this study based on multiple methods. In total, 1172 CSM-related papers from the Web of Science Core Collection database were examined. The analyses focused on publication year, country-institute, publication source, author and research topics. The results indicated that the USA, China, Australia and the UK took leading positions in CSM research. Two branches of journals were identified, namely the branch of engineering science and that of safety science and social science. Additionally, seven themes together with 28 specific topics were detected to allow researchers to track the main structure and temporal evolution of CSM research. Finally, the main research trends and potential research directions were discussed to guide the future research.

The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C; Meier, Walter N

2018-05-28

As assessed over the period of satellite observations, October 1978 to present, there are downward linear trends in Arctic sea ice extent for all months, largest at the end of the melt season in September. The ice cover is also thinning. Downward trends in extent and thickness have been accompanied by pronounced interannual and multiyear variability, forced by both the atmosphere and ocean. As the ice thins, its response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing may be changing. In support of a busier Arctic, there is a growing need to predict ice conditions on a variety of time and space scales. A major challenge to providing seasonal scale predictions is the 7-10 days limit of numerical weather prediction. While a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely well within this century, there is much uncertainty in the timing. This reflects differences in climate model structure, the unknown evolution of anthropogenic forcing, and natural climate variability. In sharp contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable, has increased slightly over the period of satellite observations. The reasons for this different behavior remain to be resolved, but responses to changing atmospheric circulation patterns appear to play a strong role. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Predictive models of safety based on audit findings: Part 1: Model development and reliability.

PubMed

Hsiao, Yu-Lin; Drury, Colin; Wu, Changxu; Paquet, Victor

2013-03-01

This consecutive study was aimed at the quantitative validation of safety audit tools as predictors of safety performance, as we were unable to find prior studies that tested audit validity against safety outcomes. An aviation maintenance domain was chosen for this work as both audits and safety outcomes are currently prescribed and regulated. In Part 1, we developed a Human Factors/Ergonomics classification framework based on HFACS model (Shappell and Wiegmann, 2001a,b), for the human errors detected by audits, because merely counting audit findings did not predict future safety. The framework was tested for measurement reliability using four participants, two of whom classified errors on 1238 audit reports. Kappa values leveled out after about 200 audits at between 0.5 and 0.8 for different tiers of errors categories. This showed sufficient reliability to proceed with prediction validity testing in Part 2. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Advances in Predictive Toxicology for Discovery Safety through High Content Screening.

PubMed

Persson, Mikael; Hornberg, Jorrit J

2016-12-19

High content screening enables parallel acquisition of multiple molecular and cellular readouts. In particular the predictive toxicology field has progressed from the advances in high content screening, as more refined end points that report on cellular health can be studied in combination, at the single cell level, and in relatively high throughput. Here, we discuss how high content screening has become an essential tool for Discovery Safety, the discipline that integrates safety and toxicology in the drug discovery process to identify and mitigate safety concerns with the aim to design drug candidates with a superior safety profile. In addition to customized mechanistic assays to evaluate target safety, routine screening assays can be applied to identify risk factors for frequently occurring organ toxicities. We discuss the current state of high content screening assays for hepatotoxicity, cardiotoxicity, neurotoxicity, nephrotoxicity, and genotoxicity, including recent developments and current advances.

Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

PubMed

Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

2014-12-01

The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

Prediction based active ramp metering control strategy with mobility and safety assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Jie; Tu, Lili

2018-04-01

Ramp metering is one of the most direct and efficient motorway traffic flow management measures so as to improve traffic conditions. However, owing to short of traffic conditions prediction, in earlier studies, the impact on traffic flow dynamics of the applied RM control was not quantitatively evaluated. In this study, a RM control algorithm adopting Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework to predict and assess future traffic conditions, which taking both the current traffic conditions and the RM-controlled future traffic states into consideration, was presented. The designed RM control algorithm targets at optimizing the network mobility and safety performance. The designed algorithm is evaluated in a field-data-based simulation. Through comparing the presented algorithm controlled scenario with the uncontrolled scenario, it was proved that the proposed RM control algorithm can effectively relieve the congestion of traffic network with no significant compromises in safety aspect.

Northern Hemisphere climate trends in reanalysis and forecast model predictions: The 500 hPa annual means

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordi, I.; Fraedrich, K.; Sutera, A.

2010-06-01

The lead time dependent climates of the ECMWF weather prediction model, initialized with ERA-40 reanalysis, are analysed using 44 years of day-1 to day-10 forecasts of the northern hemispheric 500-hPa geopotential height fields. The study addresses the question whether short-term tendencies have an impact on long-term trends. Comparing climate trends of ERA-40 with those of the forecasts, it seems that the forecast model rapidly loses the memory of initial conditions creating its own climate. All forecast trends show a high degree of consistency. Comparison results suggest that: (i) Only centers characterized by an upward trend are statistical significant when increasing the lead time. (ii) In midilatitudes an upward trend larger than the one observed in the reanalysis characterizes the forecasts, while in the tropics there is a good agreement. (iii) The downward trend in reanalysis at high latitudes characterizes also the day-1 forecast which, however, increasing lead time approaches zero.

Intelligent robot trends and predictions for the new millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Ernest L.; Mundhenk, Terrell N.

1999-08-01

An intelligent robot is a remarkably useful combination of a manipulator, sensors and controls. The current use of these machines in outer space, medicine, hazardous materials, defense applications and industry is being pursued with vigor but little funding. In factory automation such robotics machines can improve productivity, increase product quality and improve competitiveness. The computer and the robot have both been developed during recent times. The intelligent robot combines both technologies and requires a thorough understanding and knowledge of mechatronics. In honor of the new millennium, this paper will present a discussion of futuristic trends and predictions. However, in keeping with technical tradition, a new technique for 'Follow the Leader' will also be presented in the hope of it becoming a new, useful and non-obvious technique.

Comparison of fission product release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-1 safety tests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collin, Blaise P.; Petti, David A.; Demkowicz, Paul A.

Safety tests were conducted on fuel compacts from AGR-1, the first irradiation experiment of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification program, at temperatures ranging from 1600 to 1800 °C to determine fission product release at temperatures that bound reactor accident conditions. The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict the release of fission products silver, cesium, strontium, and krypton from fuel compacts containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles during 15 of these safety tests. Comparisons between PARFUME predictions and post-irradiation examination results of the safety tests were conducted on two types of AGR-1 compacts: compactsmore » containing only intact particles and compacts containing one or more particles whose SiC layers failed during safety testing. In both cases, PARFUME globally over-predicted the experimental release fractions by several orders of magnitude: more than three (intact) and two (failed SiC) orders of magnitude for silver, more than three and up to two orders of magnitude for strontium, and up to two and more than one orders of magnitude for krypton. The release of cesium from intact particles was also largely over-predicted (by up to five orders of magnitude) but its release from particles with failed SiC was only over-predicted by a factor of about 3. These over-predictions can be largely attributed to an over-estimation of the diffusivities used in the modeling of fission product transport in TRISO-coated particles. The integral release nature of the data makes it difficult to estimate the individual over-estimations in the kernel or each coating layer. Nevertheless, a tentative assessment of correction factors to these diffusivities was performed to enable a better match between the modeling predictions and the safety testing results. The method could only be successfully applied to silver and cesium. In the case of strontium, correction factors could not be assessed

Comparison of fission product release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-1 safety tests

DOE PAGES

Collin, Blaise P.; Petti, David A.; Demkowicz, Paul A.; ...

2016-04-07

Safety tests were conducted on fuel compacts from AGR-1, the first irradiation experiment of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification program, at temperatures ranging from 1600 to 1800 °C to determine fission product release at temperatures that bound reactor accident conditions. The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict the release of fission products silver, cesium, strontium, and krypton from fuel compacts containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles during 15 of these safety tests. Comparisons between PARFUME predictions and post-irradiation examination results of the safety tests were conducted on two types of AGR-1 compacts: compactsmore » containing only intact particles and compacts containing one or more particles whose SiC layers failed during safety testing. In both cases, PARFUME globally over-predicted the experimental release fractions by several orders of magnitude: more than three (intact) and two (failed SiC) orders of magnitude for silver, more than three and up to two orders of magnitude for strontium, and up to two and more than one orders of magnitude for krypton. The release of cesium from intact particles was also largely over-predicted (by up to five orders of magnitude) but its release from particles with failed SiC was only over-predicted by a factor of about 3. These over-predictions can be largely attributed to an over-estimation of the diffusivities used in the modeling of fission product transport in TRISO-coated particles. The integral release nature of the data makes it difficult to estimate the individual over-estimations in the kernel or each coating layer. Nevertheless, a tentative assessment of correction factors to these diffusivities was performed to enable a better match between the modeling predictions and the safety testing results. The method could only be successfully applied to silver and cesium. In the case of strontium, correction factors could not be assessed

Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future.

PubMed

Green, David M

2017-02-01

Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals' prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads' eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late-breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. Improved understanding of the environmental cues that bring organisms out of winter dormancy will enable better interpretation of long-term phenological trends. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

Increase in breast cancer incidence among older women in Mumbai: 30-year trends and predictions to 2025.

PubMed

Dikshit, Rajesh P; Yeole, B B; Nagrani, Rajini; Dhillon, P; Badwe, R; Bray, Freddie

2012-08-01

Increasing trends in the incidence of breast cancer have been observed in India, including Mumbai. These have likely stemmed from an increasing adoption of lifestyle factors more akin to those commonly observed in westernized countries. Analyses of breast cancer trends and corresponding estimation of the future burden are necessary to better plan rationale cancer control programmes within the country. We used data from the population-based Mumbai Cancer Registry to study time trends in breast cancer incidence rates 1976-2005 and stratified them according to younger (25-49) and older age group (50-74). Age-period-cohort models were fitted and the net drift used as a measure of the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Age-period-cohort models and population projections were used to predict the age-adjusted rates and number of breast cancer cases circa 2025. Breast cancer incidence increased significantly among older women over three decades (EAPC = 1.6%; 95% CI 1.1-2.0), while lesser but significant 1% increase in incidence among younger women was observed (EAPC = 1.0; 95% CI 0.2-1.8). Non-linear period and cohort effects were observed; a trends-based model predicted a close-to-doubling of incident cases by 2025 from 1300 mean cases per annum in 2001-2005 to over 2500 cases in 2021-2025. The incidence of breast cancer has increased in Mumbai during last two to three decades, with increases greater among older women. The number of breast cancer cases is predicted to double to over 2500 cases, the vast majority affecting older women. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting perceived safety to drive the morning after drinking: The importance of hangover symptoms.

PubMed

Cameron, Elaine; French, David P

2016-07-01

People driving the day after drinking are at risk of impaired performance and accidents due to continued intoxication or the effects of alcohol hangover. Drivers are poor at estimating their own blood alcohol concentration, and some drive despite believing they are over the legal limit. It is therefore important to identify other factors influencing perceived ability to drive 'the morning after'. This study tested how accurately participants estimated their legal driving status, and the contribution of beliefs and hangover symptoms to the prediction of perceived driving safety. This cross-sectional study involved 193 students completing a questionnaire and alcohol breath test the morning after heavy alcohol consumption. Indicators of subjective intoxication, severity of hangover symptoms, estimated legal status and perceived safety to drive were measured. A hierarchical linear regression analysis was conducted. No participants thought they were under the English legal limit when they were not, and 47% thought they were over the limit when they were in fact legally permissible to drive. However, 20% of those believing they were over the limit nevertheless rated themselves as safe to drive. Hangover symptoms added 17% variance to the prediction of perceived safety to drive, over and above objective and subjective measures of intoxication. Perceived severity of hangover symptoms influence beliefs about driving ability: When judging safety to drive, people experiencing less severe symptoms believe they are less impaired. If this finding is robust, health promotion campaigns should aim to correct this misapprehension. [Cameron E, French D. Predicting perceived safety to drive the morning after drinking: The importance of hangover symptoms. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:442-446]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Musical trends and predictability of success in contemporary songs in and out of the top charts

PubMed Central

Interiano, Myra; Kazemi, Kamyar; Wang, Lijia; Yang, Jienian; Yu, Zhaoxia

2018-01-01

We analyse more than 500 000 songs released in the UK between 1985 and 2015 to understand the dynamics of success (defined as ‘making it’ into the top charts), correlate success with acoustic features and explore the predictability of success. Several multi-decadal trends have been uncovered. For example, there is a clear downward trend in ‘happiness’ and ‘brightness’, as well as a slight upward trend in ‘sadness’. Furthermore, songs are becoming less ‘male’. Interestingly, successful songs exhibit their own distinct dynamics. In particular, they tend to be ‘happier’, more ‘party-like’, less ‘relaxed’ and more ‘female’ than most. The difference between successful and average songs is not straightforward. In the context of some features, successful songs pre-empt the dynamics of all songs, and in others they tend to reflect the past. We used random forests to predict the success of songs, first based on their acoustic features, and then adding the ‘superstar’ variable (informing us whether the song’s artist had appeared in the top charts in the near past). This allowed quantification of the contribution of purely musical characteristics in the songs’ success, and suggested the time scale of fashion dynamics in popular music. PMID:29892348

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

PubMed

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ozone Trend Detectability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, J. W. (Editor)

1981-01-01

The detection of anthropogenic disturbances in the Earth's ozone layer was studied. Two topics were addressed: (1) the level at which a trend in total ozoning is detected by existing data sources; and (2) empirical evidence in the prediction of the depletion in total ozone. Error sources are identified. The predictability of climatological series, whether empirical models can be trusted, and how errors in the Dobson total ozone data impact trend detectability, are discussed.

Global trends in nasopharyngeal cancer mortality since 1970 and predictions for 2020: Focus on low-risk areas.

PubMed

Carioli, Greta; Negri, Eva; Kawakita, Daisuke; Garavello, Werner; La Vecchia, Carlo; Malvezzi, Matteo

2017-05-15

Nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) mortality shows great disparity between endemic high risk areas, where non-keratinizing carcinoma (NKC) histology is prevalent, and non-endemic low risk regions, where the keratinizing squamous cell carcinoma (KSCC) type is more frequent. We used the World Health Organization database to calculate NPC mortality trends from 1970 to 2014 in several countries worldwide. For the European Union (EU), the United States (US) and Japan, we also predicted trends to 2020. In 2012, the highest age-standardized (world standard) rates were in Hong Kong (4.51/100,000 men and 1.15/100,000 women), followed by selected Eastern European countries. The lowest rates were in Northern Europe and Latin America. EU rates were 0.27/100,000 men and 0.09/100,000 women, US rates were 0.20/100,000 men and 0.08/100,000 women and Japanese rates were 0.16/100,000 men and 0.04/100,000 women. NPC mortality trends were favourable for several countries. The decline was -15% in men and -5% in women between 2002 and 2012 in the EU, -12% in men and -9% in women in the US and about -30% in both sexes in Hong Kong and Japan. The favourable patterns in Europe and the United States are predicted to continue. Changes in salted fish and preserved food consumption account for the fall in NKC. Smoking and alcohol prevalence disparities between sexes and geographic areas may explain the different rates and trends observed for KSCC and partially for NKC. Dietary patterns, as well as improvement in management of the disease, may partly account for the observed trends, too. © 2017 UICC.

Marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania: Trends, interannual variability, and predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Eric C. J.; Lago, Véronique; Hobday, Alistair J.; Holbrook, Neil J.; Ling, Scott D.; Mundy, Craig N.

2018-02-01

Surface waters off eastern Tasmania are a global warming hotspot. Here, mean temperatures have been rising over several decades at nearly four times the global average rate, with concomitant changes in extreme temperatures - marine heatwaves. These changes have recently caused the marine biodiversity, fisheries and aquaculture industries off Tasmania's east coast to come under stress. In this study we quantify the long-term trends, variability and predictability of marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania. We use a high-resolution ocean model for Tasmania's eastern continental shelf. The ocean state over the 1993-2015 period is hindcast, providing daily estimates of the three-dimensional temperature and circulation fields. Marine heatwaves are identified at the surface and subsurface from ocean temperature time series using a consistent definition. Trends in marine heatwave frequency are positive nearly everywhere and annual marine heatwave days and penetration depths indicate significant positive changes, particularly off southeastern Tasmania. A decomposition into modes of variability indicates that the East Australian Current is the dominant driver of marine heatwaves across the domain. Self-organising maps are used to identify 12 marine heatwave types, each with its own regionality, seasonality, and associated large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns. The implications of this work for marine ecosystems and their management were revealed through review of past impacts and stakeholder discussions regarding use of these data.

Variability, trends, and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serreze, Mark C.; Crawford, Alex D.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; Woodgate, Rebecca A.

2016-10-01

As assessed over the period 1979-2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of -0.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back to the shelf break has a steeper trend of about +1.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days. Based on detrended time series, we ask how interannual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind (from numerical reanalyses), and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated (r ˜ 0.8) with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. After testing a suite of statistical linear models using several potential predictors, the best model for predicting the date of retreat includes only the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow, which explains 68% of retreat date variance. The best model predicting the ice advance date includes the July through September inflow and the date of retreat, explaining 67% of advance date variance. We address these relationships by discussing heat balances within the Chukchi Sea, and the hypothesis of oceanic heat transport triggering ocean heat uptake and ice-albedo feedback. Developing an operational prediction scheme for seasonal retreat and advance would require timely acquisition of Bering Strait heat inflow data. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns.

A state-based approach to trend recognition and failure prediction for the Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Kyle S.; Hadden, George D.

1992-01-01

A state-based reasoning approach to trend recognition and failure prediction for the Altitude Determination, and Control System (ADCS) of the Space Station Freedom (SSF) is described. The problem domain is characterized by features (e.g., trends and impending failures) that develop over a variety of time spans, anywhere from several minutes to several years. Our state-based reasoning approach, coupled with intelligent data screening, allows features to be tracked as they develop in a time-dependent manner. That is, each state machine has the ability to encode a time frame for the feature it detects. As features are detected, they are recorded and can be used as input to other state machines, creating a hierarchical feature recognition scheme. Furthermore, each machine can operate independently of the others, allowing simultaneous tracking of features. State-based reasoning was implemented in the trend recognition and the prognostic modules of a prototype Space Station Freedom Maintenance and Diagnostic System (SSFMDS) developed at Honeywell's Systems and Research Center.

Evaluating fatality trends in the Alcohol Safety Action Projects.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1973-01-01

The report recommends that fatality trends in the ASAP areas should be compared only with fatality trends in control communities matched as nearly as possible on the basis of geographic and demographic characteristics, traffic crash rates, and traffi...

Prediction of Safety Margin and Optimization of Dosing Protocol for a Novel Antibiotic using Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Modeling.

PubMed

Woodhead, Jeffrey L; Paech, Franziska; Maurer, Martina; Engelhardt, Marc; Schmitt-Hoffmann, Anne H; Spickermann, Jochen; Messner, Simon; Wind, Mathias; Witschi, Anne-Therese; Krähenbühl, Stephan; Siler, Scott Q; Watkins, Paul B; Howell, Brett A

2018-06-07

Elevations of liver enzymes have been observed in clinical trials with BAL30072, a novel antibiotic. In vitro assays have identified potential mechanisms for the observed hepatotoxicity, including electron transport chain (ETC) inhibition and reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation. DILIsym, a quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model of drug-induced liver injury, has been used to predict the likelihood that each mechanism explains the observed toxicity. DILIsym was also used to predict the safety margin for a novel BAL30072 dosing scheme; it was predicted to be low. DILIsym was then used to recommend potential modifications to this dosing scheme; weight-adjusted dosing and a requirement to assay plasma alanine aminotransferase (ALT) daily and stop dosing as soon as ALT increases were observed improved the predicted safety margin of BAL30072 and decreased the predicted likelihood of severe injury. This research demonstrates a potential application for QSP modeling in improving the safety profile of candidate drugs. © 2018 The Authors. Clinical and Translational Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Safety in the Chemical Laboratory. Safety in the Laboratory: Are We Making Any Progress?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McKusick, Blaine C.

1987-01-01

Reviews trends in laboratory safety found in both industrial and academic situations. Reports that large industrial labs generally have excellent safety programs but that, although there have been improvements, academia still lags behind industry in safety. Includes recommendations for improving lab safety. (ML)

Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santos, Mario, E-mail: mgsantoss@gmail.com; Freitas, Raul, E-mail: raulfreitas@portugalmail.com; Crespi, Antonio L., E-mail: aluis.crespi@gmail.com

2011-10-15

This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasingmore » populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: {yields} Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. {yields} Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. {yields} Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.{yields} Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.{yields} Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.« less

A change in the trend in dosulepin usage following the introduction of a prescribing indicator but not after two national safety warnings.

PubMed

Deslandes, P N; Jenkins, K S L; Haines, K E; Hutchings, S; Cannings-John, R; Lewis, T L; Bracchi, R C; Routledge, P A

2016-04-01

The tricyclic antidepressant dosulepin has been associated with an increased risk of toxicity in overdose compared with other antidepressants. In the UK, the MHRA and NICE have issued advice on the prescribing of dosulepin, and a National Prescribing Indicator (NPI) to monitor usage was introduced in Wales in 2011. The aim of this study was to assess whether trends in dosulepin usage in Wales and NE England changed following the two pieces of safety guidance and the introduction of the National Prescribing Indicator in Wales. Primary care dosulepin usage in the 12 months prior to and following MHRA safety advice (in 2007), NICE guideline CG90 (in 2009) and the introduction of the NPI (in 2011) was obtained. Usage was measured using defined daily doses (DDDs) per 1000 prescribing units (PUs). The trends in the 12 months prior to and following the introduction of prescribing advice and the NPI were compared using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. In Wales, the trend in dosulepin usage did not change significantly prior to and following the MHRA advice: -0·18 and -0·43 DDDs/1000PUs per month, respectively (P = 0·07), or prior to and following NICE CG90: -0·30 and -0·49 DDDs/1000PUs per month, respectively (P = 0·35). In the 12 months prior to and following the introduction of the NPI, the trend was -0·45 and -0·98 DDDs/1000PUs per month, respectively (P = 0·001). In NE England, the trend did not alter significantly following the NICE advice or the introduction of the NPI in Wales. The trend in dosulepin usage in Wales altered significantly following the introduction of the NPI, but not after the other prescribing advice. This association, coupled with the absence of a significant change in NE England over the same period, provided some evidence of the effectiveness of the NPI in prompting a change in prescribing behaviour in Wales. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to incorporate severity probabilities in the highway safety manual crash prediction algorithm.

PubMed

Sasidharan, Lekshmi; Donnell, Eric T

2014-10-01

Accurate estimation of the expected number of crashes at different severity levels for entities with and without countermeasures plays a vital role in selecting countermeasures in the framework of the safety management process. The current practice is to use the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials' Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms, which combine safety performance functions and crash modification factors, to estimate the effects of safety countermeasures on different highway and street facility types. Many of these crash prediction algorithms are based solely on crash frequency, or assume that severity outcomes are unchanged when planning for, or implementing, safety countermeasures. Failing to account for the uncertainty associated with crash severity outcomes, and assuming crash severity distributions remain unchanged in safety performance evaluations, limits the utility of the Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms in assessing the effect of safety countermeasures on crash severity. This study demonstrates the application of a propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to estimate the probability distribution for the occurrence of different crash severity levels by accounting for the uncertainties associated with them. The probability of fatal and severe injury crash occurrence at lighted and unlighted intersections is estimated in this paper using data from Minnesota. The results show that the expected probability of occurrence of fatal and severe injury crashes at a lighted intersection was 1 in 35 crashes and the estimated risk ratio indicates that the respective probabilities at an unlighted intersection was 1.14 times higher compared to lighted intersections. The results from the potential outcomes-propensity scores framework are compared to results obtained from traditional binary logit models, without application of propensity scores matching. Traditional binary logit analysis suggests that

Predictive microbiology: Quantitative science delivering quantifiable benefits to the meat industry and other food industries.

PubMed

McMeekin, T A

2007-09-01

Predictive microbiology is considered in the context of the conference theme "chance, innovation and challenge", together with the impact of quantitative approaches on food microbiology, generally. The contents of four prominent texts on predictive microbiology are analysed and the major contributions of two meat microbiologists, Drs. T.A. Roberts and C.O. Gill, to the early development of predictive microbiology are highlighted. These provide a segue into R&D trends in predictive microbiology, including the Refrigeration Index, an example of science-based, outcome-focussed food safety regulation. Rapid advances in technologies and systems for application of predictive models are indicated and measures to judge the impact of predictive microbiology are suggested in terms of research outputs and outcomes. The penultimate section considers the future of predictive microbiology and advances that will become possible when data on population responses are combined with data derived from physiological and molecular studies in a systems biology approach. Whilst the emphasis is on science and technology for food safety management, it is suggested that decreases in foodborne illness will also arise from minimising human error by changing the food safety culture.

Trend in Obesity Prevalence in European Adult Cohort Populations during Follow-up since 1996 and Their Predictions to 2015

PubMed Central

von Ruesten, Anne; Steffen, Annika; Floegel, Anna; van der A, Daphne L.; Masala, Giovanna; Tjønneland, Anne; Halkjaer, Jytte; Palli, Domenico; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Loos, Ruth J. F.; Sørensen, Thorkild I. A.; Boeing, Heiner

2011-01-01

Objective To investigate trends in obesity prevalence in recent years and to predict the obesity prevalence in 2015 in European populations. Methods Data of 97 942 participants from seven cohorts involved in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study participating in the Diogenes project (named as “Diogenes cohort” in the following) with weight measurements at baseline and follow-up were used to predict future obesity prevalence with logistic linear and non-linear (leveling off) regression models. In addition, linear and leveling off models were fitted to the EPIC-Potsdam dataset with five weight measures during the observation period to find out which of these two models might provide the more realistic prediction. Results During a mean follow-up period of 6 years, the obesity prevalence in the Diogenes cohort increased from 13% to 17%. The linear prediction model predicted an overall obesity prevalence of about 30% in 2015, whereas the leveling off model predicted a prevalence of about 20%. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the shape of obesity trend favors a leveling off model among men (R2 = 0.98), and a linear model among women (R2 = 0.99). Conclusion Our data show an increase in obesity prevalence since the 1990ies, and predictions by 2015 suggests a sizeable further increase in European populations. However, the estimates from the leveling off model were considerably lower. PMID:22102897

Comparing two safety culture surveys: safety attitudes questionnaire and hospital survey on patient safety.

PubMed

Etchegaray, Jason M; Thomas, Eric J

2012-06-01

To examine the reliability and predictive validity of two patient safety culture surveys-Safety Attitudes Questionnaire (SAQ) and Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture (HSOPS)-when administered to the same participants. Also to determine the ability to convert HSOPS scores to SAQ scores. Employees working in intensive care units in 12 hospitals within a large hospital system in the southern United States were invited to anonymously complete both safety culture surveys electronically. All safety culture dimensions from both surveys (with the exception of HSOPS's Staffing) had adequate levels of reliability. Three of HSOPS's outcomes-frequency of event reporting, overall perceptions of patient safety, and overall patient safety grade-were significantly correlated with SAQ and HSOPS dimensions of culture at the individual level, with correlations ranging from r=0.41 to 0.65 for the SAQ dimensions and from r=0.22 to 0.72 for the HSOPS dimensions. Neither the SAQ dimensions nor the HSOPS dimensions predicted the fourth HSOPS outcome-number of events reported within the last 12 months. Regression analyses indicated that HSOPS safety culture dimensions were the best predictors of frequency of event reporting and overall perceptions of patient safety while SAQ and HSOPS dimensions both predicted patient safety grade. Unit-level analyses were not conducted because indices did not indicate that aggregation was appropriate. Scores were converted between the surveys, although much variance remained unexplained. Given that the SAQ and HSOPS had similar reliability and predictive validity, investigators and quality and safety leaders should consider survey length, content, sensitivity to change and the ability to benchmark when selecting a patient safety culture survey.

Registered dietitian's personal beliefs and characteristics predict their teaching or intention to teach fresh vegetable food safety.

PubMed

Casagrande, Gina; LeJeune, Jeffery; Belury, Martha A; Medeiros, Lydia C

2011-04-01

The Theory of Planned Behavior was used to determine if dietitians personal characteristics and beliefs about fresh vegetable food safety predict whether they currently teach, intend to teach, or neither currently teach nor intend to teach food safety information to their clients. Dietitians who participated in direct client education responded to this web-based survey (n=327). The survey evaluated three independent belief variables: Subjective Norm, Attitudes, and Perceived Behavioral Control. Spearman rho correlations were completed to determine variables that correlated best with current teaching behavior. Multinomial logistical regression was conducted to determine if the belief variables significantly predicted dietitians teaching behavior. Binary logistic regression was used to determine which independent variable was the better predictor of whether dietitians currently taught. Controlling for age, income, education, and gender, the multinomial logistical regression was significant. Perceived behavioral control was the best predictor of whether a dietitian currently taught fresh vegetable food safety. Factors affecting whether dietitians currently taught were confidence in fresh vegetable food safety knowledge, being socially influenced, and a positive attitude toward the teaching behavior. These results validate the importance of teaching food safety effectively and may be used to create more informed food safety curriculum for dietitians. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of main factors’ values of air transportation system safety based on system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiridonov, A. Yu; Rezchikov, A. F.; Kushnikov, V. A.; Ivashchenko, V. A.; Bogomolov, A. S.; Filimonyuk, L. Yu; Dolinina, O. N.; Kushnikova, E. V.; Shulga, T. E.; Tverdokhlebov, V. A.; Kushnikov, O. V.; Fominykh, D. S.

2018-05-01

On the basis of the system-dynamic approach [1-8], a set of models has been developed that makes it possible to analyse and predict the values of the main safety indicators for the operation of aviation transport systems.

An environmental stress model correctly predicts unimodal trends in overall species richness and diversity along intertidal elevation gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwerschke, Nadescha; Bollen, Merle; Molis, Markus; Scrosati, Ricardo A.

2013-12-01

Environmental stress is a major factor structuring communities. An environmental stress model (ESM) predicts that overall species richness and diversity should follow a unimodal trend along the full stress gradient along which assemblages from a regional biota can occur (not to be confused with the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, which makes predictions only for basal species along an intermediate-to-high stress range). Past studies could only provide partial support for ESM predictions because of the limited stress range surveyed or a low sampling resolution. In this study, we measured overall species richness and diversity (considering all seaweeds and invertebrates) along the intertidal elevation gradient on two wave-sheltered rocky shores from Helgoland Island, on the NE Atlantic coast. In intertidal habitats, tides cause a pronounced gradient of increasing stress from low to high elevations. We surveyed up to nine contiguous elevation zones between the lowest intertidal elevation (low stress) and the high intertidal boundary (high stress). Nonlinear regression analyses revealed that overall species richness and diversity followed unimodal trends across elevations on the two studied shores. Therefore, our study suggests that the ESM might constitute a useful tool to predict local richness and diversity as a function of environmental stress. Performing tests on other systems (marine as well as terrestrial) should help to refine the model.

Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype.

PubMed

Ferro, Ana; Peleteiro, Bárbara; Malvezzi, Matteo; Bosetti, Cristina; Bertuccio, Paola; Levi, Fabio; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

2014-05-01

Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980-2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003-2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around -3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around -2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Google Trends and ambient temperature to predict seasonal influenza outbreaks.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuzhou; Bambrick, Hilary; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

2018-05-16

The discovery of the dynamics of seasonal and non-seasonal influenza outbreaks remains a great challenge. Previous internet-based surveillance studies built purely on internet or climate data do have potential error. We collected influenza notifications, temperature and Google Trends (GT) data between January 1st, 2011 and December 31st, 2016. We performed time-series cross correlation analysis and temporal risk analysis to discover the characteristics of influenza epidemics in the period. Then, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and regression tree model were developed to track influenza epidemics using GT and climate data. Influenza infection was significantly corrected with GT at lag of 1-7 weeks in Brisbane and Gold Coast, and temperature at lag of 1-10 weeks for the two study settings. SARIMA models with GT and temperature data had better predictive performance. We identified autoregression (AR) for influenza was the most important determinant for influenza occurrence in both Brisbane and Gold Coast. Our results suggested internet search metrics in conjunction with temperature can be used to predict influenza outbreaks, which can be considered as a pre-requisite for constructing early warning systems using search and temperature data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can staff and patient perspectives on hospital safety predict harm-free care? An analysis of staff and patient survey data and routinely collected outcomes

PubMed Central

Lawton, Rebecca; O'Hara, Jane Kathryn; Sheard, Laura; Reynolds, Caroline; Cocks, Kim; Armitage, Gerry; Wright, John

2015-01-01

Background Patients have the potential to provide feedback on the safety of their care. Recently, tools have been developed that ask patients to provide feedback on those factors that are known to contribute to safety, therefore providing information that can be used proactively to manage safety in hospitals. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the safety information provided by patients is different from that provided by staff and whether it is related to safety outcomes. Method Data were collected from 33 hospital wards across 3 acute hospital Trusts in the UK. Staff on these wards were asked to complete the four outcome measures of the Hospital Survey of Patient Safety Culture, while patients were asked to complete the Patient Measure of Safety and the friends and family test. We also collated publicly reported safety outcome data for ‘harm-free care’ on each ward. This patient safety thermometer measure is used in the UK NHS to record the percentage of patients on a single day of each month on every ward who have received harm-free care (ie, no pressure ulcers, falls, urinary tract infections and hospital acquired new venous thromboembolisms). These data were used to address questions about the relationship between measures and the extent to which patient and staff perceptions of safety predict safety outcomes. Results The friends and family test, a single item measure of patient experience was associated with patients’ perceptions of safety, but was not associated with safety outcomes. Staff responses to the patient safety culture survey were not significantly correlated with patient responses to the patient measure of safety, but both independently predicted safety outcomes. The regression models showed that staff perceptions (adjusted r2=0.39) and patient perceptions (adjusted r2=0.30) of safety independently predicted safety outcomes. When entered together both measures accounted for 49% of the variance in safety outcomes (adjusted r2

The Safety Attitudes Questionnaire as a Tool for Benchmarking Safety Culture in the NICU

PubMed Central

Profit, Jochen; Etchegaray, Jason; Petersen, Laura A; Sexton, J Bryan; Hysong, Sylvia J; Mei, Minghua; Thomas, Eric J

2014-01-01

background NICU safety culture, as measured by the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire (SAQ), varies widely. Associations with clinical outcomes in the adult ICU setting make the SAQ an attractive tool for comparing clinical performance between hospitals. Little information is available on the use of the SAQ for this purpose in the NICU setting. objectives To determine whether the dimensions of safety culture measured by the SAQ give consistent results when used as a NICU performance measure. methods Cross-sectional survey of caregivers in twelve NICUs, using the six scales of the SAQ: teamwork climate, safety climate, job satisfaction, stress recognition, perceptions of management, and working conditions. NICUs were ranked by quantifying their contribution to overall risk-adjusted variation across the scales. Spearman Rank Correlation coefficients were used to test for consistency in scale performance. We then examined whether performance in the top four NICUs in one scale predicted top four performance in others. results There were 547 respondents in twelve NICUs. Of fifteen NICU-level correlations in performance ranking, two were greater than 0.7, seven were between 0.4 and 0.69, the six remaining were less than 0.4. We found a trend towards significance in comparing the distribution of performance in the top four NICUs across domains with a binomial distribution p = .051, indicating generally consistent performance across dimensions of safety culture. conclusion A culture of safety permeates many aspects of patient care and organizational functioning. The SAQ may be a useful tool for comparative performance assessments among NICUs. PMID:22337935

River-ice break-up/freeze-up: a review of climatic drivers, historical trends and future predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prowse, T. D.; Bonsal, B. R.; Duguay, C. R.; Lacroix, M. P.

2007-10-01

River ice plays a fundamental role in biological, chemical and physical processes that control freshwater regimes of the cold regions. Moreover, it can have enormous economic implications for river-based developments. All such activities and processes can be modified significantly by any changes to river-ice thickness, composition or event timing and severity. This paper briefly reviews some of the major hydraulic, mechanical and thermodynamic processes controlling river-ice events and how these are influenced by variations in climate. A regional and temporal synthesis is also made of the observed historical trends in river-ice break-up/freeze-up occurrence from the Eurasian and North American cold regions. This involves assessment of several hydroclimatic variables that have influenced past trends and variability in river-ice break-up/freeze-up dates including air-temperature indicators (e.g. seasonal temperature, 0°C isotherm dates and various degree-days) and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns or teleconnections. Implications of future climate change on the timing and severity of river-ice events are presented and discussed in relation to the historical trends. Attention is drawn to the increasing trends towards the occurrence of mid-winter break-up events that can produce especially severe flood conditions but prove to be the most difficult type of event to model and predict.

Safety focused modeling of lithium-ion batteries: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abada, S.; Marlair, G.; Lecocq, A.; Petit, M.; Sauvant-Moynot, V.; Huet, F.

2016-02-01

Safety issues pertaining to Li-ion batteries justify intensive testing all along their value chain. However, progress in scientific knowledge regarding lithium based battery failure modes, as well as remarkable technologic breakthroughs in computing science, now allow for development and use of prediction tools to assist designers in developing safer batteries. Subsequently, this paper offers a review of significant modeling works performed in the area with a focus on the characterization of the thermal runaway hazard and their relating triggering events. Progress made in models aiming at integrating battery ageing effect and related physics is also discussed, as well as the strong interaction with modeling-focused use of testing, and the main achievements obtained towards marketing safer systems. Current limitations and new challenges or opportunities that are expected to shape future modeling activity are also put in perspective. According to market trends, it is anticipated that safety may still act as a restraint in the search for acceptable compromise with overall performance and cost of lithium-ion based and post lithium-ion rechargeable batteries of the future. In that context, high-throughput prediction tools capable of screening adequate new components properties allowing access to both functional and safety related aspects are highly desirable.

[Genetically modified food (food derived from biotechnology): current and future trends in public acceptance and safety assessment].

PubMed

Nishiura, Hiroshi; Imai, Hirohisa; Nakao, Hiroyuki; Tsukino, Hiromasa; Kuroda, Yoshiki; Katoh, Takahiko

2002-11-01

Current and future trends regarding genetically modified (GM) crops and food stuffs were reviewed, with a particular focus on public acceptance and safety assessment. While GM foods, foods derived from biotechnology, are popular with growers and producers, they are still a matter of some concern among consumers. In fact, our recent surveys showed that Japanese consumers had become uneasy about the potential health risks of genetically modified foods. Many Japanese consumers have only vague ideas about the actual health risks, and they appear to be making decisions simply by rejecting GM food because of non-informed doubts. Although the debate about GM foods has increased in the mass media and scientific journals, few articles concerning direct studies on the potential toxicity or adverse health effects of GM foods have appeared. The roles of relevant international regulatory bodies in ensuring that GM crops and food are safe are therefore have summarized. Finally, the current debate on use of GM crops in agriculture and future trends for development of GM foods with enriched nutrients, better functionality, and medicinal ingredients, which will be of direct benefit to the consumer, are covered.

Prediction of Safety Stock Using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and Technology of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) for Stock Control at Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mashuri, Chamdan; Suryono; Suseno, Jatmiko Endro

2018-02-01

This research was conducted by prediction of safety stock using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and technology of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) for stock control at Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI). Well-controlled stock influenced company revenue and minimized cost. It discussed about information system of safety stock prediction developed through programming language of PHP. Input data consisted of demand got from automatic, online and real time acquisition using technology of RFID, then, sent to server and stored at online database. Furthermore, data of acquisition result was predicted by using algorithm of FTS applying universe of discourse defining and fuzzy sets determination. Fuzzy set result was continued to division process of universe of discourse in order to be to final step. Prediction result was displayed at information system dashboard developed. By using 60 data from demand data, prediction score was 450.331 and safety stock was 135.535. Prediction result was done by error deviation validation using Mean Square Percent Error of 15%. It proved that FTS was good enough in predicting demand and safety stock for stock control. For deeper analysis, researchers used data of demand and universe of discourse U varying at FTS to get various result based on test data used.

Psychosocial safety climate moderates the job demand-resource interaction in predicting workgroup distress.

PubMed

Dollard, Maureen F; Tuckey, Michelle R; Dormann, Christian

2012-03-01

Psychosocial safety climate (PSC) arises from workplace policies, practices, and procedures for the protection of worker psychological health and safety that are largely driven by management. Many work stress theories are based on the fundamental interaction hypothesis - that a high level of job demands (D) will lead to psychological distress and that this relationship will be offset when there are high job resources (R). However we proposed that this interaction really depends on the organizational context; in particular high levels of psychosocial safety climate will enable the safe utilization of resources to reduce demands. The study sample consisted of police constables from 23 police units (stations) with longitudinal survey responses at two time points separated by 14 months (Time 1, N=319, Time 2, N=139). We used hierarchical linear modeling to assess the effect of the proposed three-way interaction term (PSC×D×R) on change in workgroup distress variance over time. Specifically we confirmed the interaction between emotional demands and emotional resources (assessed at the individual level), in the context of unit psychosocial safety climate (aggregated individual data). As predicted, high emotional resources moderated the positive relationship between emotional demands and change in workgroup distress but only when there were high levels of unit psychosocial safety climate. Results were confirmed using a split-sample analysis. Results support psychosocial safety climate as a property of the organization and a target for higher order controls for reducing work stress. The 'right' climate enables resources to do their job. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends of Abutment-Scour Prediction Equations Applied to 144 Field Sites in South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benedict, Stephen T.; Deshpande, Nikhil; Aziz, Nadim M.; Conrads, Paul

2006-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration in which predicted abutment-scour depths computed with selected predictive equations were compared with field measurements of abutment-scour depth made at 144 bridges in South Carolina. The assessment used five equations published in the Fourth Edition of 'Evaluating Scour at Bridges,' (Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18), including the original Froehlich, the modified Froehlich, the Sturm, the Maryland, and the HIRE equations. An additional unpublished equation also was assessed. Comparisons between predicted and observed scour depths are intended to illustrate general trends and order-of-magnitude differences for the prediction equations. Field measurements were taken during non-flood conditions when the hydraulic conditions that caused the scour generally are unknown. The predicted scour depths are based on hydraulic conditions associated with the 100-year flow at all sites and the flood of record for 35 sites. Comparisons showed that predicted scour depths frequently overpredict observed scour and at times were excessive. The comparison also showed that underprediction occurred, but with less frequency. The performance of these equations indicates that they are poor predictors of abutment-scour depth in South Carolina, and it is probable that poor performance will occur when the equations are applied in other geographic regions. Extensive data and graphs used to compare predicted and observed scour depths in this study were compiled into spreadsheets and are included in digital format with this report. In addition to the equation-comparison data, Water-Surface Profile Model tube-velocity data, soil-boring data, and selected abutment-scour data are included in digital format with this report. The digital database was developed as a resource for future researchers and is especially valuable for evaluating the reasonableness of future equations that may be developed.

Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence.

PubMed

Anwar, Mohammad Y; Lewnard, Joseph A; Parikh, Sunil; Pitzer, Virginia E

2016-11-22

Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in disease incidence. It is, therefore, of interest to develop a predictive tool for malaria patterns based on the current passive and affordable surveillance system in this resource-limited region. This study employs data from Ministry of Public Health monthly reports from January 2005 to September 2015. Malaria incidence in Afghanistan was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for malaria surveillance. Environmental and climate data were incorporated to assess whether they improve predictive power of models. Two models were identified, each appropriate for different time horizons. For near-term forecasts, malaria incidence can be predicted based on the number of cases in the four previous months and 12 months prior (Model 1); for longer-term prediction, malaria incidence can be predicted using the rates 1 and 12 months prior (Model 2). Next, climate and environmental variables were incorporated to assess whether the predictive power of proposed models could be improved. Enhanced vegetation index was found to have increased the predictive accuracy of longer-term forecasts. Results indicate ARIMA models can be applied to forecast malaria patterns in Afghanistan, complementing current surveillance systems. The models provide a means to better understand malaria dynamics in a resource-limited context with minimal data input, yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

Temporal trends in symptom experience predict the accuracy of recall PROs

PubMed Central

Schneider, Stefan; Broderick, Joan E.; Junghaenel, Doerte U.; Schwartz, Joseph E.; Stone, Arthur A.

2013-01-01

Objective Patient-reported outcome measures with reporting periods of a week or more are often used to evaluate the change of symptoms over time, but the accuracy of recall in the context of change is not well understood. This study examined whether temporal trends in symptoms that occur during the reporting period impact the accuracy of 7-day recall reports. Methods Women with premenstrual symptoms (n = 95) completed daily reports of anger, depression, fatigue, and pain intensity for 4 weeks, as well as 7-day recall reports at the end of each week. Latent class growth analysis was used to categorize recall periods based on the direction and rate of change in the daily reports. Agreement (level differences and correlations) between 7-day recall and aggregated daily scores was compared for recall periods with different temporal trends. Results Recall periods with positive, negative, and flat temporal trends were identified and they varied in accordance with weeks of the menstrual cycle. Replicating previous research, 7-day recall scores were consistently higher than aggregated daily scores, but this level difference was more pronounced for recall periods involving positive and negative trends compared with flat trends. Moreover, correlations between 7-day recall and aggregated daily scores were lower in the presence of positive and negative trends compared with flat trends. These findings were largely consistent for anger, depression, fatigue, and pain intensity. Conclusion Temporal trends in symptoms can influence the accuracy of recall reports and this should be considered in research designs involving change. PMID:23915773

Evaluating the road safety effects of a fuel cost increase measure by means of zonal crash prediction modeling.

PubMed

Pirdavani, Ali; Brijs, Tom; Bellemans, Tom; Kochan, Bruno; Wets, Geert

2013-01-01

Travel demand management (TDM) consists of a variety of policy measures that affect the transportation system's effectiveness by changing travel behavior. The primary objective to implement such TDM strategies is not to improve traffic safety, although their impact on traffic safety should not be neglected. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the traffic safety impact of conducting a fuel-cost increase scenario (i.e. increasing the fuel price by 20%) in Flanders, Belgium. Since TDM strategies are usually conducted at an aggregate level, crash prediction models (CPMs) should also be developed at a geographically aggregated level. Therefore zonal crash prediction models (ZCPMs) are considered to present the association between observed crashes in each zone and a set of predictor variables. To this end, an activity-based transportation model framework is applied to produce exposure metrics which will be used in prediction models. This allows us to conduct a more detailed and reliable assessment while TDM strategies are inherently modeled in the activity-based models unlike traditional models in which the impact of TDM strategies are assumed. The crash data used in this study consist of fatal and injury crashes observed between 2004 and 2007. The network and socio-demographic variables are also collected from other sources. In this study, different ZCPMs are developed to predict the number of injury crashes (NOCs) (disaggregated by different severity levels and crash types) for both the null and the fuel-cost increase scenario. The results show a considerable traffic safety benefit of conducting the fuel-cost increase scenario apart from its impact on the reduction of the total vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT). A 20% increase in fuel price is predicted to reduce the annual VKT by 5.02 billion (11.57% of the total annual VKT in Flanders), which causes the total NOCs to decline by 2.83%. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study of the Continuous Improvement Trend for Health, Safety and Environmental Indicators, after Establishment of Integrated Management System (IMS) in a Pharmaceutical Industry in Iran.

PubMed

Mariouryad, Pegah; Golbabaei, Farideh; Nasiri, Parvin; Mohammadfam, Iraj; Marioryad, Hossein

2015-10-01

Nowadays, organizations try to improve their services and consequently adopt management systems and standards which have become key parts in various industries. One of these management systems which have been noticed in the recent years is Integrated Management System that is the combination of quality, health, safety and environment management systems. This study was conducted with the aim of evaluating the improvement trend after establishment of integrated management system for health, safety and environment indicators, in a pharmaceutical industry in Iran. First, during several inspections in different parts of the industry, indicators that should have been noted were listed and then these indicators were organized in 3 domains of health, safety and environment in the form of a questionnaire that followed Likert method of scaling. Also, the weight of each index was resulted from averaging out of 30 managers and the viewpoints of the related experts in the field. Moreover, by checking the documents and evidence of different years (5 contemplation years of this study), the score of each indicator was determined by multiplying the weight and score of the indices and were finally analysed. Over 5 years, scores of health scope indicators, increased from 161.99 to 202.23. Score in the first year after applying the integrated management system establishment was 172.37 in safety part and in the final year increased to 197.57. The changes of environmental scope rates, from the beginning of the program up to the last year increased from 49.24 to 64.27. Integrated management systems help organizations to improve programs to achieve their objectives. Although in this study all trends of health, safety and environmental indicator changes were positive, but at the same time showed to be slow. So, one can suggest that the result of an annual evaluation should be applied in planning future activities for the years ahead.

State of the Art: Recent Legislation on Workers' Health and Safety.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parmeggiani, L.

1982-01-01

Reviews present trends in occupational health and safety legislation. Discusses the role of the state, the development of workers' participation, trends in the organization of occupational health services, and methods and objectives of occupational safety and health. (Author/JOW)

Professional Preparation for Careers in Safety.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Della-Giustina, Daniel

There has been a long existing need for individuals with extensive training and concentration in safety studies. The foundation areas upon which a curriculum for training safety practitioners is based should include: (1) trends in accident prevention and control; (2) safety analysis of human and machine tasks; (3) hazard identification and control…

Stargazing: Future Trends in Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shields, Jeff

2001-01-01

Describes the trends in higher education predicted and discussed at a staff retreat of the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO). Trends include an evolving role for business officers, increasing enrollment, competition, and e-learning. (EV)

Highway Safety: Trends in Highway Fatalities 1975-1987

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-03-01

pattern of fatalities as the overall trend. This pattern applies to many of the general fatality statis- tics we present, and, in all cases, it serves as a...Fatalities 1975-87 Appemfx IV Vehicle-Related Statistics Figure IV.17: Vehicle Fatalities by Direction of Principal Impacto NNNumber of PddUlsils lwam 0 1975

Advanced Avalanche Safety Equipment of Backcountry Users: Current Trends and Perceptions.

PubMed

Ng, Pearlly; Smith, William R; Wheeler, Albert; McIntosh, Scott E

2015-09-01

Backcountry travelers should carry a standard set of safety gear (transceiver, shovel, and probe) to improve rescue chances and reduce mortality risk. Many backcountry enthusiasts are using other advanced equipment such as an artificial air pocket (eg, the AvaLung) or an avalanche air bag. Our goal was to determine the numbers of backcountry users carrying advanced equipment and their perceptions of mortality and morbidity benefit while carrying this gear. A convenience sample of backcountry skiers, snowboarders, snowshoers, and snowmobilers was surveyed between February and April 2014. Participants of this study were backcountry mountain users recruited at trailheads in the Wasatch and Teton mountain ranges of Utah and Wyoming, respectively. Questions included prior avalanche education, equipment carried, and perceived safety benefit derived from advanced equipment. In all, 193 surveys were collected. Skiers and snowboarders were likely to have taken an avalanche safety course, whereas snowshoers and snowmobilers were less likely to have taken a course. Most backcountry users (149, 77.2%), predominantly skiers and snowboarders, carried standard safety equipment. The AvaLung was carried more often (47 users) than an avalanche air bag (10 users). The avalanche air bag had a more favorable perceived safety benefit. A majority of participants reported cost as the barrier to obtaining advanced equipment. Standard avalanche safety practices, including taking an avalanche safety course and carrying standard equipment, remain the most common safety practices among backcountry users in the Wasatch and Tetons. Snowshoers remain an ideal target for outreach to increase avalanche awareness and safety. Copyright © 2015 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends and predicted trends in presentations of older people to Australian emergency departments: effects of demand growth, population aging and climate change.

PubMed

Burkett, Ellen; Martin-Khan, Melinda G; Scott, Justin; Samanta, Mayukh; Gray, Leonard C

2017-07-01

Objectives The aim of the present study was to describe trends in and age and gender distributions of presentations of older people to Australian emergency departments (EDs) from July 2006 to June 2011, and to develop ED utilisation projections to 2050. Methods A retrospective analysis of data collected in the National Non-admitted Patient Emergency Department Care Database was undertaken to assess trends in ED presentations. Three standard Australian Bureau of Statistics population growth models, with and without adjustment for current trends in ED presentation growth and effects of climate change, were examined with projections of ED presentations across three age groups (0-64, 65-84 and ≥85 years) to 2050. Results From 2006-07 to 2010-11, ED presentations increased by 12.63%, whereas the Australian population over this time increased by only 7.26%. Rates of presentation per head of population were greatest among those aged ≥85 years. Projections of ED presentations to 2050 revealed that overall ED presentations are forecast to increase markedly, with the rate of increase being most marked for older people. Conclusion Growth in Australian ED presentations from 2006-07 to 2010-11 was greater than that expected from population growth alone. The predicted changes in demand for ED care will only be able to be optimally managed if Australian health policy, ED funding instruments and ED models of care are adjusted to take into account the specific care and resource needs of older people. What is known about the topic? Rapid population aging is anticipated over coming decades. International studies and specific local-level Australian studies have demonstrated significant growth in ED presentations. There have been no prior national-level Australian studies of ED presentation trends by age group. What does this paper add? The present study examined national ED presentation trends from July 2006 to June 2011, with specific emphasis on trends in presentation by age

Trends in Personal Injury Suits.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Smissen, Betty

1985-01-01

Professional competence becomes more important as personal injury suits against recreation enterprises and parks focus increasingly on the professional responsible for facility safety. All professionals should be aware of and educated in risk management. Trends in liability awards and providers' legal responsibilities in various situations are…

Comprehensive summary--Predict-IV: A systems toxicology approach to improve pharmaceutical drug safety testing.

PubMed

Mueller, Stefan O; Dekant, Wolfgang; Jennings, Paul; Testai, Emanuela; Bois, Frederic

2015-12-25

This special issue of Toxicology in Vitro is dedicated to disseminating the results of the EU-funded collaborative project "Profiling the toxicity of new drugs: a non animal-based approach integrating toxicodynamics and biokinetics" (Predict-IV; Grant 202222). The project's overall aim was to develop strategies to improve the assessment of drug safety in the early stage of development and late discovery phase, by an intelligent combination of non animal-based test systems, cell biology, mechanistic toxicology and in silico modeling, in a rapid and cost effective manner. This overview introduces the scope and overall achievements of Predict-IV. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consideration of future safety consequences: a new predictor of employee safety.

PubMed

Probst, Tahira M; Graso, Maja; Estrada, Armando X; Greer, Sarah

2013-06-01

Compliance with safety behaviors is often associated with longer term benefits, but may require some short-term sacrifices. This study examines the extent to which consideration of future safety consequences (CFSC) predicts employee safety outcomes. Two field studies were conducted to evaluate the reliability and validity of the newly developed Consideration of Future Safety Consequences (CFSC) scale. Surveys containing the CFSC scale and other measures of safety attitudes, behaviors, and outcomes were administered during working hours to a sample of 128 pulp and paper mill employees; after revising the CFSC scale based on these initial results, follow-up survey data were collected in a second sample of 212 copper miners. In Study I, CFSC was predictive of employee safety knowledge and motivation, compliance, safety citizenship behaviors, accident reporting attitudes and behaviors, and workplace injuries - even after accounting for conscientiousness and demographic variables. Moreover, the effects of CFSC on the variables generally appear to be direct, as opposed to mediated by safety knowledge or motivation. These findings were largely replicated in Study II. CFSC appears to be an important personality construct that may predict those individuals who are more likely to comply with safety rules and have more positive safety outcomes. Future research should examine the longitudinal stability of CFSC to determine the extent to which this construct is a stable trait, rather than a safety attitude amenable to change over time or following an intervention. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Average intragranular misorientation trends in polycrystalline materials predicted by a viscoplastic self-consistent approach

DOE PAGES

Lebensohn, Ricardo A.; Zecevic, Miroslav; Knezevic, Marko; ...

2015-12-15

Here, this work presents estimations of average intragranular fluctuations of lattice rotation rates in polycrystalline materials, obtained by means of the viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) model. These fluctuations give a tensorial measure of the trend of misorientation developing inside each single crystal grain representing a polycrystalline aggregate. We first report details of the algorithm implemented in the VPSC code to estimate these fluctuations, which are then validated by comparison with corresponding full-field calculations. Next, we present predictions of average intragranular fluctuations of lattice rotation rates for cubic aggregates, which are rationalized by comparison with experimental evidence on annealing textures of fccmore » and bcc polycrystals deformed in tension and compression, respectively, as well as with measured intragranular misorientation distributions in a Cu polycrystal deformed in tension. The orientation-dependent and micromechanically-based estimations of intragranular misorientations that can be derived from the present implementation are necessary to formulate sound sub-models for the prediction of quantitatively accurate deformation textures, grain fragmentation, and recrystallization textures using the VPSC approach.« less

Predicting the role of veterinary medicine in future health and food safety challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fejzić, N.; Šerić-Haračić, S.

2017-09-01

Animals have always been a source of food, materials, protection and wellbeing for humans; however, animal diseases, including zoonoses, have both direct and indirect negative effects on human health, economy and the society. Since its establishment, the veterinary profession has provided crucial input in eradicating disease, increasing animal production and reducing losses due to diseases. Currently, foodborne diseases and zoonoses have raised awareness in developed countries, which have excellent systems for disease surveillance and reporting both in humans and animal populations. Due to lack of modern, integrated surveillance and reporting, the burden of zoonoses and foodborne diseases in developing European countries is much harder to assess. Differences in countries’ animal health status (demonstrated through disease surveillance) have been a main pivot point for international trade of animals and animal products. However, rapid and dramatic evolvement of the health trends in the world changed the principles of animal disease surveillance. Approaches requiring lower cost (i.e. risk-based surveillance) are now proposed, not only due to less available public funding, but also because the costs are harder to justify to policy makers if a disease is exotic and/or rare. Therefore, the veterinary profession has faced insufficient interest of governments and funds for further research into many persistent endemic animal diseases and zoonoses. On the other hand, eradication of selected diseases in some areas while elsewhere they still persist, and the continuous emergence of new diseases, cannot guarantee permanent epidemiological stability. As food safety and security become more important, global trends and events have highlighted the biological, health and economic inseparability of the relationships between humans, animals as pets and/or food sources and wildlife within the social and ecological framework of living space that these species share. Veterinarians

Linear and nonlinear trending and prediction for AVHRR time series data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smid, J.; Volf, P.; Slama, M.; Palus, M.

1995-01-01

The variability of AVHRR calibration coefficient in time was analyzed using algorithms of linear and non-linear time series analysis. Specifically we have used the spline trend modeling, autoregressive process analysis, incremental neural network learning algorithm and redundancy functional testing. The analysis performed on available AVHRR data sets revealed that (1) the calibration data have nonlinear dependencies, (2) the calibration data depend strongly on the target temperature, (3) both calibration coefficients and the temperature time series can be modeled, in the first approximation, as autonomous dynamical systems, (4) the high frequency residuals of the analyzed data sets can be best modeled as an autoregressive process of the 10th degree. We have dealt with a nonlinear identification problem and the problem of noise filtering (data smoothing). The system identification and filtering are significant problems for AVHRR data sets. The algorithms outlined in this study can be used for the future EOS missions. Prediction and smoothing algorithms for time series of calibration data provide a functional characterization of the data. Those algorithms can be particularly useful when calibration data are incomplete or sparse.

Software system safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Uber, James G.

1988-01-01

Software itself is not hazardous, but since software and hardware share common interfaces there is an opportunity for software to create hazards. Further, these software systems are complex, and proven methods for the design, analysis, and measurement of software safety are not yet available. Some past software failures, future NASA software trends, software engineering methods, and tools and techniques for various software safety analyses are reviewed. Recommendations to NASA are made based on this review.

EX-PRESS Glaucoma Filtration Device: efficacy, safety, and predictability

PubMed Central

Chan, Jessica E; Netland, Peter A

2015-01-01

Trabeculectomy has been the traditional primary surgical therapy for open-angle glaucoma. While trabeculectomy is effective in lowering intraocular pressure, complications associated with the procedure have motivated the development of alternative techniques and devices, including the EX-PRESS Glaucoma Filtration Device. This review describes the efficacy, safety, complication rates, and potential advantages and disadvantages of the EX-PRESS Glaucoma Filtration Device. EX-PRESS implantation is technically simpler compared with that of trabeculectomy, with fewer surgical steps. Vision recovery has been more rapid after EX-PRESS implantation compared with trabeculectomy. Intraocular pressure variation is lower during the early postoperative period, indicating a more predictable procedure. While efficacy of the EX-PRESS implant has been comparable to trabeculectomy, postoperative complications appear less common after EX-PRESS implantation compared with trabeculectomy. The EX-PRESS Glaucoma Filtration Device appears to be safe and effective in the surgical management of open-angle glaucoma. PMID:26366105

Trends in Fatalities From Distracted Driving in the United States, 1999 to 2008

PubMed Central

Stimpson, Jim P.

2010-01-01

Objectives. We examined trends in distracted driving fatalities and their relation to cell phone use and texting volume. Methods. The Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) records data on all road fatalities that occurred on public roads in the United States from 1999 to 2008. We studied trends in distracted driving fatalities, driver and crash characteristics, and trends in cell phone use and texting volume. We used multivariate regression analysis to estimate the relation between state-level distracted driving fatalities and texting volumes. Results. After declining from 1999 to 2005, fatalities from distracted driving increased 28% after 2005, rising from 4572 fatalities to 5870 in 2008. Crashes increasingly involved male drivers driving alone in collisions with roadside obstructions in urban areas. By use of multivariate analyses, we predicted that increasing texting volumes resulted in more than 16 000 additional road fatalities from 2001 to 2007. Conclusions. Distracted driving is a growing public safety hazard. Specifically, the dramatic rise in texting volume since 2005 appeared to be contributing to an alarming rise in distracted driving fatalities. Legislation enacting texting bans should be paired with effective enforcement to deter drivers from using cell phones while driving. PMID:20864709

Trends in fatalities from distracted driving in the United States, 1999 to 2008.

PubMed

Wilson, Fernando A; Stimpson, Jim P

2010-11-01

We examined trends in distracted driving fatalities and their relation to cell phone use and texting volume. The Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) records data on all road fatalities that occurred on public roads in the United States from 1999 to 2008. We studied trends in distracted driving fatalities, driver and crash characteristics, and trends in cell phone use and texting volume. We used multivariate regression analysis to estimate the relation between state-level distracted driving fatalities and texting volumes. After declining from 1999 to 2005, fatalities from distracted driving increased 28% after 2005, rising from 4572 fatalities to 5870 in 2008. Crashes increasingly involved male drivers driving alone in collisions with roadside obstructions in urban areas. By use of multivariate analyses, we predicted that increasing texting volumes resulted in more than 16,000 additional road fatalities from 2001 to 2007. Distracted driving is a growing public safety hazard. Specifically, the dramatic rise in texting volume since 2005 appeared to be contributing to an alarming rise in distracted driving fatalities. Legislation enacting texting bans should be paired with effective enforcement to deter drivers from using cell phones while driving.

Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends

PubMed Central

Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin

2018-01-01

Background Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. Methods American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. Results For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. Conclusion This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast. PMID:29385198

Praedicere Possumus: An Italian web-based application for predictive microbiology to ensure food safety.

PubMed

Polese, Pierluigi; Torre, Manuela Del; Stecchini, Mara Lucia

2018-03-31

The use of predictive modelling tools, which mainly describe the response of microorganisms to a particular set of environmental conditions, may contribute to a better understanding of microbial behaviour in foods. In this paper, a tertiary model, in the form of a readily available and userfriendly web-based application Praedicere Possumus (PP) is presented with research examples from our laboratories. Through the PP application, users have access to different modules, which apply a set of published models considered reliable for determining the compliance of a food product with EU safety criteria and for optimising processing throughout the identification of critical control points. The application pivots around a growth/no-growth boundary model, coupled with a growth model, and includes thermal and non-thermal inactivation models. Integrated functionalities, such as the fractional contribution of each inhibitory factor to growth probability (f) and the time evolution of the growth probability (P t ), have also been included. The PP application is expected to assist food industry and food safety authorities in their common commitment towards the improvement of food safety.

The Use of Crow-AMSAA Plots to Assess Mishap Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dawson, Jeffrey W.

2011-01-01

Crow-AMSAA (CA) plots are used to model reliability growth. Use of CA plots has expanded into other areas, such as tracking events of interest to management, maintenance problems, and safety mishaps. Safety mishaps can often be successfully modeled using a Poisson probability distribution. CA plots show a Poisson process in log-log space. If the safety mishaps are a stable homogenous Poisson process, a linear fit to the points in a CA plot will have a slope of one. Slopes of greater than one indicate a nonhomogenous Poisson process, with increasing occurrence. Slopes of less than one indicate a nonhomogenous Poisson process, with decreasing occurrence. Changes in slope, known as "cusps," indicate a change in process, which could be an improvement or a degradation. After presenting the CA conceptual framework, examples are given of trending slips, trips and falls, and ergonomic incidents at NASA (from Agency-level data). Crow-AMSAA plotting is a robust tool for trending safety mishaps that can provide insight into safety performance over time.

Prevalence of current patterns and predictive trends of multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhi in Sudan.

PubMed

Elshayeb, Ayman A; Ahmed, Abdelazim A; El Siddig, Marmar A; El Hussien, Adil A

2017-11-14

Enteric fever has persistence of great impact in Sudanese public health especially during rainy season when the causative agent Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi possesses pan endemic patterns in most regions of Sudan - Khartoum. The present study aims to assess the recent state of antibiotics susceptibility of Salmonella Typhi with special concern to multidrug resistance strains and predict the emergence of new resistant patterns and outbreaks. Salmonella Typhi strains were isolated and identified according to the guidelines of the International Standardization Organization and the World Health Organization. The antibiotics susceptibilities were tested using the recommendations of the Clinical Laboratories Standards Institute. Predictions of emerging resistant bacteria patterns and outbreaks in Sudan were done using logistic regression, forecasting linear equations and in silico simulations models. A total of 124 antibiotics resistant Salmonella Typhi strains categorized in 12 average groups were isolated, different patterns of resistance statistically calculated by (y = ax - b). Minimum bactericidal concentration's predication of resistance was given the exponential trend (y = n e x ) and the predictive coefficient R 2  > 0 < 1 are approximately alike. It was assumed that resistant bacteria occurred with a constant rate of antibiotic doses during the whole experimental period. Thus, the number of sensitive bacteria decreases at the same rate as resistant occur following term to the modified predictive model which solved computationally. This study assesses the prediction of multi-drug resistance among S. Typhi isolates by applying low cost materials and simple statistical methods suitable for the most frequently used antibiotics as typhoid empirical therapy. Therefore, bacterial surveillance systems should be implemented to present data on the aetiology and current antimicrobial drug resistance patterns of community-acquired agents causing outbreaks.

Predicting Drug Safety and Communicating Risk: Benefits of a Bayesian Approach.

PubMed

Lazic, Stanley E; Edmunds, Nicholas; Pollard, Christopher E

2018-03-01

Drug toxicity is a major source of attrition in drug discovery and development. Pharmaceutical companies routinely use preclinical data to predict clinical outcomes and continue to invest in new assays to improve predictions. However, there are many open questions about how to make the best use of available data, combine diverse data, quantify risk, and communicate risk and uncertainty to enable good decisions. The costs of suboptimal decisions are clear: resources are wasted and patients may be put at risk. We argue that Bayesian methods provide answers to all of these problems and use hERG-mediated QT prolongation as a case study. Benefits of Bayesian machine learning models include intuitive probabilistic statements of risk that incorporate all sources of uncertainty, the option to include diverse data and external information, and visualizations that have a clear link between the output from a statistical model and what this means for risk. Furthermore, Bayesian methods are easy to use with modern software, making their adoption for safety screening straightforward. We include R and Python code to encourage the adoption of these methods.

Study of the Continuous Improvement Trend for Health, Safety and Environmental Indicators, after Establishment of Integrated Management System (IMS) in a Pharmaceutical Industry in Iran

PubMed Central

Mariouryad, Pegah; Golbabaei, Farideh; Nasiri, Parvin; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2015-01-01

Background Nowadays, organizations try to improve their services and consequently adopt management systems and standards which have become key parts in various industries. One of these management systems which have been noticed in the recent years is Integrated Management System that is the combination of quality, health, safety and environment management systems. Aim This study was conducted with the aim of evaluating the improvement trend after establishment of integrated management system for health, safety and environment indicators, in a pharmaceutical industry in Iran. Materials and Methods First, during several inspections in different parts of the industry, indicators that should have been noted were listed and then these indicators were organized in 3 domains of health, safety and environment in the form of a questionnaire that followed Likert method of scaling. Also, the weight of each index was resulted from averaging out of 30 managers and the viewpoints of the related experts in the field. Moreover, by checking the documents and evidence of different years (5 contemplation years of this study), the score of each indicator was determined by multiplying the weight and score of the indices and were finally analysed. Results Over 5 years, scores of health scope indicators, increased from 161.99 to 202.23. Score in the first year after applying the integrated management system establishment was 172.37 in safety part and in the final year increased to 197.57. The changes of environmental scope rates, from the beginning of the program up to the last year increased from 49.24 to 64.27. Conclusion Integrated management systems help organizations to improve programs to achieve their objectives. Although in this study all trends of health, safety and environmental indicator changes were positive, but at the same time showed to be slow. So, one can suggest that the result of an annual evaluation should be applied in planning future activities for the years ahead

Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): An Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ling, Lisa

2014-01-01

For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a potential off-nominal atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. The software and methodology have been validated against actual flights, telemetry data, and validated software, and safety/risk analyses were performed for various programs using SPEAD. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, validation, and application of the SPEAD analysis tool.

Renal Resistance Trend During Hypothermic Machine Perfusion Is More Predictive of Postoperative Outcome Than Biopsy Score: Preliminary Experience in 35 Consecutive Kidney Transplantations.

PubMed

Bissolati, Massimiliano; Gazzetta, Paolo Giovanni; Caldara, Rossana; Guarneri, Giovanni; Adamenko, Olga; Giannone, Fabio; Mazza, Michele; Maggi, Giulia; Tomanin, Deborah; Rosati, Riccardo; Secchi, Antonio; Socci, Carlo

2018-03-30

Hypothermic machine perfusion (HPM) grants a better postoperative outcome in transplantation of organs procured from extended criteria donors (ECDs) and donors after cardiac death (DCD). So far, the only available parameter for outcome prediction concerning those organs is pretransplant biopsy score. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether renal resistance (RR) trend during HPM may be used as a predictive marker for post-transplantation outcome. From December 2015 to present, HMP has been systematically applied to all organs from ECDs and DCD. All grafts underwent pretransplantation biopsy evaluation using Karpinski's histological score. Only organs that reached RR value ≤1.0 within 3 hours of perfusion were transplanted. Single kidney transplantation (SKT) or double kidney transplantation (DKT) were performed according to biopsy score results. Sixty-five HMPs were performed (58 from ECDs and 7 from DCD/ECMO donors). Fifteen kidneys were insufficiently reconditioned (RR > 1) and were therefore discarded. Forty-nine kidneys were transplanted, divided between 21 SKT and 14 DKT. Overall primary nonfunction (PNF) and delayed graft function (DGF) rate were 2.9 and 17.1%, respectively. DGF were more common in kidneys from DCD (67 vs. 7%; P = 0.004). Biopsy score did not correlate with PNF/DGF rate (P = 0.870) and postoperative creatinine trend (P = 0.796). Recipients of kidneys that reached RR ≤ 1.0 within 1 hour of HMP had a lower PNF/DGF rate (11 vs. 44%; P = 0.033) and faster serum creatinine decrease (POD10 creatinine: 1.79 mg/dL vs. 4.33 mg/dL; P = 0.019). RR trend is more predictive of post-transplantation outcome than biopsy score. Hence, RR trend should be taken into account in the pretransplantation evaluation of the organs. © 2018 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

PubMed

Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

2013-01-01

We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

Fatal and serious injury traffic crash trends in Michigan : 1995-1999

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

This is the latest report in a series documenting five-year trends in Michigan traffic crashes. This report provides background information necessary for the Michigan Office of Highway Safety Planning to set and evaluate traffic safety goals and to p...

Nursing education trends: future implications and predictions.

PubMed

Valiga, Theresa M Terry

2012-12-01

This article examines current trends in nursing education and proposes numerous transformations needed to ensure that programs are relevant, fully engage learners, reflect evidence-based teaching practices, and are innovative. Such program characteristics are essential if we are to graduate nurses who can practice effectively in today's complex, ambiguous, ever-changing health care environments and who are prepared to practice in and, indeed, shape tomorrow's unknown practice environments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Pre-marketing Factors to Predict Post-marketing Boxed Warnings and Safety Withdrawals.

PubMed

Schick, Andreas; Miller, Kathleen L; Lanthier, Michael; Dal Pan, Gerald; Nardinelli, Clark

2017-06-01

An important goal in drug regulation is understanding serious safety issues with new drugs as soon as possible. Achieving this goal requires us to understand whether information provided during the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug review can predict serious safety issues that are usually identified after the product is approved. However, research on this topic remains understudied. In this paper, we examine whether any pre-marketing drug characteristics are associated with serious post-marketing safety actions. We study this question using an internal FDA database containing every new small molecule drug submitted to the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) on or after November 21, 1997, and approved and commercially launched before December 31, 2009. Serious post-marketing safety actions include whether these drugs ever experienced either a post-marketing boxed warning or a withdrawal from the market due to safety concerns. A random effects logistic regression model was used to test whether any pre-marketing characteristics were associated with either post-marketing safety action. A total of 219 new molecular entities were analyzed. Among these drugs, 11 experienced a safety withdrawal and 30 received boxed warnings by July 31, 2016. Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, we find that neither clinical trial sample sizes nor review time windows are associated with the addition of a post-marketing boxed warning or safety withdrawal. However, we do find that new drugs approved with either a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience post-marketing boxed warnings. Furthermore, drugs approved with boxed warnings tend to receive post-marketing boxed warnings resulting from new safety information that are unrelated to the original warning. Drugs approved with a boxed warning are 3.88 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning, while drugs approved with a priority review are 3.51 times more likely to receive a post

Safety restraint use in Virginia : use rate trends from 1983 through 1995.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-01-01

The purpose of this report was to take a retrospective glance at Virginia's experience in getting her citizens to use the automobile safety restraint systems available to them. In Virginia, data on safety belt and child safety seat use were collected...

Safety behavior: Job demands, job resources, and perceived management commitment to safety.

PubMed

Hansez, Isabelle; Chmiel, Nik

2010-07-01

The job demands-resources model posits that job demands and resources influence outcomes through job strain and work engagement processes. We test whether the model can be extended to effort-related "routine" safety violations and "situational" safety violations provoked by the organization. In addition we test more directly the involvement of job strain than previous studies which have used burnout measures. Structural equation modeling provided, for the first time, evidence of predicted relationships between job strain and "routine" violations and work engagement with "routine" and "situational" violations, thereby supporting the extension of the job demands-resources model to safety behaviors. In addition our results showed that a key safety-specific construct 'perceived management commitment to safety' added to the explanatory power of the job demands-resources model. A predicted path from job resources to perceived management commitment to safety was highly significant, supporting the view that job resources can influence safety behavior through both general motivational involvement in work (work engagement) and through safety-specific processes.

Market inefficiency identified by both single and multiple currency trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokár, T.; Horváth, D.

2012-11-01

Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency returns; nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J. James, Simple trend-following strategies in currency trading, Quantitative finance 3 (2003) C75-C77]. We analyze the local trends which are of the main focus of the technical analysis. In this article we introduced various statistical quantities examining role of single temporal discretized trend or multitude of grouped trends corresponding to different time delays. Our specific analysis based predominantly on Euro-dollar currency pair data at the one minute frequency suggests the importance of cumulative nonrandom effect of trends on the potential forecasting performance.

Predicting Rehabilitation Success Rate Trends among Ethnic Minorities Served by State Vocational Rehabilitation Agencies: A National Time Series Forecast Model Demonstration Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Corey L.; Wang, Ningning; Washington, Janique Tynez

2017-01-01

Purpose: This study assessed and demonstrated the efficacy of two select empirical forecast models (i.e., autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA] model vs. grey model [GM]) in accurately predicting state vocational rehabilitation agency (SVRA) rehabilitation success rate trends across six different racial and ethnic population cohorts…

Comparison of mean climate trends in the Northern Hemisphere between National Centers for Environmental Prediction and two atmosphere-ocean model forced runs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Russell, Gary L.

2002-08-01

Results are presented for two greenhouse gas experiments of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies atmosphere-ocean model (AOM). The computed trends of surface pressure; surface temperature; 850, 500, and 200 mbar geopotential heights; and related temperatures of the model for the time frame 1960-2000 are compared with those obtained from the National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The domain of interest is the Northern Hemisphere because of the higher reliability of both the model results and the observations. A spatial correlation analysis and a mean value comparison are performed, showing good agreement in terms of statistical significance for most of the variables considered in the winter and annual means. However, the 850 mbar temperature trends do not show significant positive correlation, and the surface pressure and 850 mbar geopotential height mean trends confidence intervals do not overlap. A brief general discussion about the statistics of trend detection is presented. The accuracy that this AOM has in describing the regional and NH mean climate trends inferred from NCEP through the atmosphere suggests that it may be reliable in forecasting future climate changes.

Emerging trends in global freshwater availability.

PubMed

Rodell, M; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Reager, J T; Beaudoing, H K; Landerer, F W; Lo, M-H

2018-05-01

Freshwater availability is changing worldwide. Here we quantify 34 trends in terrestrial water storage observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites during 2002-2016 and categorize their drivers as natural interannual variability, unsustainable groundwater consumption, climate change or combinations thereof. Several of these trends had been lacking thorough investigation and attribution, including massive changes in northwestern China and the Okavango Delta. Others are consistent with climate model predictions. This observation-based assessment of how the world's water landscape is responding to human impacts and climate variations provides a blueprint for evaluating and predicting emerging threats to water and food security.

Factors predicting change in hospital safety climate and capability in a multi-site patient safety collaborative: a longitudinal survey study.

PubMed

Benn, Jonathan; Burnett, Susan; Parand, Anam; Pinto, Anna; Vincent, Charles

2012-07-01

The study had two specific objectives: (1) To analyse change in a survey measure of organisational patient safety climate and capability (SCC) resulting from participation in the UK Safer Patients Initiative and (2) To investigate the role of a range of programme and contextual factors in predicting change in SCC scores. Single group longitudinal design with repeated measurement at 12-month follow-up. Multiple service areas within NHS hospital sites across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Stratified sample of 284 respondents representing programme teams at 19 hospital sites. A complex intervention comprising a multi-component quality improvement collaborative focused upon patient safety and designed to impact upon hospital leadership, communication, organisation and safety climate. A survey including a 31-item SCC scale was administered at two time-points. Modest but significant positive movement in SCC score was observed between the study time-points. Individual programme responsibility, availability of early adopters, multi-professional collaboration and extent of process measurement were significant predictors of change in SCC. Hospital type and size, along with a range of programme preconditions, were not found to be significant. A range of social, cultural and organisational factors may be sensitive to this type of intervention but the measurable effect is small. Supporting critical local programme implementation factors may be an effective strategy in achieving development in organisational patient SCC, regardless of contextual factors and organisational preconditions.

ADSA Foundation Scholar Award: Trends in culture-independent methods for assessing dairy food quality and safety: emerging metagenomic tools.

PubMed

Yeung, Marie

2012-12-01

Enhancing the quality and safety of dairy food is critical to maintaining the competitiveness of dairy products in the food and beverage market and in reinforcing consumer confidence in the dairy industry. Raw milk quality has a significant effect on finished product quality. Several microbial groups found in raw milk have been shown to adversely affect the shelf life of pasteurized milk. Current microbiological criteria used to define milk quality are based primarily on culture-dependent methods, some of which are perceived to lack the desired sensitivity and specificity. To supplement traditional methods, culture-independent methods are increasingly being used to identify specific species or microbial groups, and to detect indicator genes or proteins in raw milk or dairy products. Some molecular subtyping techniques have been developed to track the transmission of microbes in dairy environments. The burgeoning "-omics" technologies offer new and exciting opportunities to enhance our understanding of food quality and safety in relation to microbes. Metagenomics has the potential to characterize microbial diversity, detect nonculturable microbes, and identify unique sequences or other factors associated with dairy product quality and safety. In this review, fluid milk will be used as the primary example to examine the adequacy and validity of conventional methods, the current trend of culture-independent methods, and the potential applications of metagenomics in dairy food research. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fusion of nonclinical and clinical data to predict human drug safety.

PubMed

Johnson, Dale E

2013-03-01

Adverse drug reactions continue to be a major cause of morbidity in both patients receiving therapeutics and in drug R&D programs. Predicting and possibly eliminating these adverse events remains a high priority in industry, government agencies and healthcare systems. With small molecule candidates, the fusion of nonclinical and clinical data is essential in establishing an overall system that creates a true translational science approach. Several new advances are taking place that attempt to create a 'patient context' mechanism early in drug research and development and ultimately into the marketplace. This 'life-cycle' approach has as its core the development of human-oriented, nonclinical end points and the incorporation of clinical knowledge at the drug design stage. The next 5 years should witness an explosion of what the author views as druggable and safe chemical space, pharmacosafety molecular targets and the most important aspect, an understanding of unique susceptibilities in patients developing adverse drug reactions. Our current knowledge of clinical safety relies completely on pharmacovigilance data from approved and marketed drugs, with a few exceptions of drugs failing in clinical trials. Massive data repositories now and soon to be available via cloud computing should stimulate a major effort in expanding our view of clinical drug safety and its incorporation into early drug research and development.

Improving safety culture through the health and safety organization: a case study.

PubMed

Nielsen, Kent J

2014-02-01

International research indicates that internal health and safety organizations (HSO) and health and safety committees (HSC) do not have the intended impact on companies' safety performance. The aim of this case study at an industrial plant was to test whether the HSO can improve company safety culture by creating more and better safety-related interactions both within the HSO and between HSO members and the shop-floor. A quasi-experimental single case study design based on action research with both quantitative and qualitative measures was used. Based on baseline mapping of safety culture and the efficiency of the HSO three developmental processes were started aimed at the HSC, the whole HSO, and the safety representatives, respectively. Results at follow-up indicated a marked improvement in HSO performance, interaction patterns concerning safety, safety culture indicators, and a changed trend in injury rates. These improvements are interpreted as cultural change because an organizational double-loop learning process leading to modification of the basic assumptions could be identified. The study provides evidence that the HSO can improve company safety culture by focusing on safety-related interactions. © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council.

Predicting Fatigue and Psychophysiological Test Performance from Speech for Safety-Critical Environments.

PubMed

Baykaner, Khan Richard; Huckvale, Mark; Whiteley, Iya; Andreeva, Svetlana; Ryumin, Oleg

2015-01-01

Automatic systems for estimating operator fatigue have application in safety-critical environments. A system which could estimate level of fatigue from speech would have application in domains where operators engage in regular verbal communication as part of their duties. Previous studies on the prediction of fatigue from speech have been limited because of their reliance on subjective ratings and because they lack comparison to other methods for assessing fatigue. In this paper, we present an analysis of voice recordings and psychophysiological test scores collected from seven aerospace personnel during a training task in which they remained awake for 60 h. We show that voice features and test scores are affected by both the total time spent awake and the time position within each subject's circadian cycle. However, we show that time spent awake and time-of-day information are poor predictors of the test results, while voice features can give good predictions of the psychophysiological test scores and sleep latency. Mean absolute errors of prediction are possible within about 17.5% for sleep latency and 5-12% for test scores. We discuss the implications for the use of voice as a means to monitor the effects of fatigue on cognitive performance in practical applications.

Predicting Fatigue and Psychophysiological Test Performance from Speech for Safety-Critical Environments

PubMed Central

Baykaner, Khan Richard; Huckvale, Mark; Whiteley, Iya; Andreeva, Svetlana; Ryumin, Oleg

2015-01-01

Automatic systems for estimating operator fatigue have application in safety-critical environments. A system which could estimate level of fatigue from speech would have application in domains where operators engage in regular verbal communication as part of their duties. Previous studies on the prediction of fatigue from speech have been limited because of their reliance on subjective ratings and because they lack comparison to other methods for assessing fatigue. In this paper, we present an analysis of voice recordings and psychophysiological test scores collected from seven aerospace personnel during a training task in which they remained awake for 60 h. We show that voice features and test scores are affected by both the total time spent awake and the time position within each subject’s circadian cycle. However, we show that time spent awake and time-of-day information are poor predictors of the test results, while voice features can give good predictions of the psychophysiological test scores and sleep latency. Mean absolute errors of prediction are possible within about 17.5% for sleep latency and 5–12% for test scores. We discuss the implications for the use of voice as a means to monitor the effects of fatigue on cognitive performance in practical applications. PMID:26380259

Patterns and Trends of Liver Cancer Incidence Rates in Eastern and Southeastern Asian Countries (1983-2007) and Predictions to 2030.

PubMed

Wu, Jie; Yang, Shigui; Xu, Kaijin; Ding, Cheng; Zhou, Yuqing; Fu, Xiaofang; Li, Yiping; Deng, Min; Wang, Chencheng; Liu, Xiaoxiao; Li, Lanjuan

2018-05-01

We examined temporal trends in liver cancer incidence rates overall and by histological type from 1983 through 2007. We predict trends in liver cancer incidence rates through 2030 for selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. Data on yearly liver cancer incident cases by age group and sex were drawn from 6 major selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries or regions with cancer registries available in the CI5plus database, including China, Japan, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. We also analyzed data for the United States and Australia for comparative purposes. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated and plotted from 1983 through 2007. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted through 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models. The incidence rates of liver cancer have been decreasing, and decreases will continue in all selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, except for Thailand, whose liver cancer incidence rate will increase due to the increasing incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas. Even though the incidence rates of liver cancer are predicted to decrease in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, the burden, in terms of new cases, will continue to increase because of population growth and aging. Based on an analysis of data from cancer registries from Asian countries, incidence rates of liver cancer are expected to decrease through 2030 in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. However, in Thailand, the incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas is predicted to increase, so health education programs are necessary. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the impact of bike network indicators on cyclist safety using macro-level collision prediction models.

PubMed

Osama, Ahmed; Sayed, Tarek

2016-12-01

Many cities worldwide are recognizing the important role that cycling plays in creating green and livable communities. However, vulnerable road users such as cyclists are usually subjected to an elevated level of injury risk which discourages many road users to cycle. This paper studies cyclist-vehicle collisions at 134 traffic analysis zones in the city of Vancouver to assess the impact of bike network structure on cyclist safety. Several network indicators were developed using Graph theory and their effect on cyclist safety was investigated. The indicators included measures of connectivity, directness, and topography of the bike network. The study developed several macro-level (zonal) collision prediction models that explicitly incorporated bike network indicators as explanatory variables. As well, the models incorporated the actual cyclist exposure (bike kilometers travelled) as opposed to relying on proxies such as population or bike network length. The macro-level collision prediction models were developed using generalized linear regression and full Bayesian techniques, with and without spatial effects. The models showed that cyclist collisions were positively associated with bike and vehicle exposure. The exponents of the exposure variables were less than one which supports the "safety in numbers" hypothesis. Moreover, the models showed positive associations between cyclist collisions and the bike network connectivity and linearity indicators. In contrast, negative associations were found between cyclist collisions and the bike network continuity and topography indicators. The spatial effects were statistically significant in all of the developed models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Visumax femtolasik versus Moria M2 microkeratome in mild to moderate myopia: efficacy, safety, predictability, aberrometric changes and flap thickness predictability.

PubMed

Torky, Magda A; Al Zafiri, Yousif A; Khattab, Abeer M; Farag, Rania K; Awad, Eman A

2017-07-17

This is an interventional prospective clinical study which was conducted to evaluate the efficacy, safety, predictability, ocular aberrations, and flap thickness predictability of Visumax femtosecond laser (FSL) compared to Moria M2 microkeratome (MK) in mild to moderate myopia. This study included 60 eyes who were divided into two groups. Thirty eyes in group (I) in which the flap was created with Visumax FSL, while in group II (30 eyes) the Moria M2 MK was used. Keratometric, refractive, and aberrometric measurements were compared preoperatively and 3 months postoperatively. The intraoperative subtraction pachymetry (the SP 100 Handy pachymeter (Tomey, Nagoya, Japan) was used for preoperative pachymetry and flap thickness measurement. No significant difference was found between the two groups in regards to postoperative manifest sphere, spherical equivalent, astigmatism, safety indices nor ocular aberrations. Twenty six eyes (86.6%) in group I and 23 eyes in group II (76.6%) were within ±0.5D of the intended correction and 23 eyes (76.6%) in group I and 15 eyes in group II (50%) were within ±0.25D of the intended correction. In group I, the mean postoperative actual flap thickness was 100.12 ± 16.1 μm (81 to 122 μm), while in group II, it was 104.6 ± 20.1 μm (62 to 155 μm). The difference was statistically significant (p = 0.001). Both Visumax and Moria M2 MK are safe and effective in treating myopia with no statistically significant difference in induction of ocular aberrations but with potential advantage for Visumax regarding predictability. More accurate flap thickness is achieved with Visumax femtolasik. This study was retrospectively registered on 19/6/2017. Trial registration number NCT03193411 , clinicalTrials.gov .

Prospective Safety Analysis and the Complex Aviation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Brian E.

2013-01-01

both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.

The Mediterranean Decision Support System for Marine Safety dedicated to oil slicks predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, G.; De Dominicis, M.; Perivoliotis, L.; Radhakrishnan, H.; Georgoudis, E.; Sotillo, M.; Lardner, R. W.; Krokos, G.; Bruciaferri, D.; Clementi, E.; Guarnieri, A.; Ribotti, A.; Drago, A.; Bourma, E.; Padorno, E.; Daniel, P.; Gonzalez, G.; Chazot, C.; Gouriou, V.; Kremer, X.; Sofianos, S.; Tintore, J.; Garreau, P.; Pinardi, N.; Coppini, G.; Lecci, R.; Pisano, A.; Sorgente, R.; Fazioli, L.; Soloviev, D.; Stylianou, S.; Nikolaidis, A.; Panayidou, X.; Karaolia, A.; Gauci, A.; Marcati, A.; Caiazzo, L.; Mancini, M.

2016-11-01

In the Mediterranean sea the risk from oil spill pollution is high due to the heavy traffic of merchant vessels for transporting oil and gas, especially after the recent enlargement of the Suez canal and to the increasing coastal and offshore installations related to the oil industry in general. The basic response to major oil spills includes different measures and equipment. However, in order to strengthen the maritime safety related to oil spill pollution in the Mediterranean and to assist the response agencies, a multi-model oil spill prediction service has been set up, known as MEDESS-4MS (Mediterranean Decision Support System for Marine Safety). The concept behind the MEDESS-4MS service is the integration of the existing national ocean forecasting systems in the region with the Copernicus Marine Environmental Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and their interconnection, through a dedicated network data repository, facilitating access to all these data and to the data from the oil spill monitoring platforms, including the satellite data ones, with the well established oil spill models in the region. The MEDESS-4MS offer a range of service scenarios, multi-model data access and interactive capabilities to suite the needs of REMPEC (Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response Centre for the Mediterranean Sea) and EMSA-CSN (European Maritime Safety Agency-CleanseaNet).

Model-Based Predictions of the Effects of Harvest Mortality on Population Size and Trend of Yellow-Billed Loons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.

2009-01-01

Yellow-billed loons (Gavia adamsii) breed in low densities in northern tundra habitats in Alaska, Canada, and Russia. They migrate to coastal marine habitats at mid to high latitudes where they spend their winters. Harvest may occur throughout the annual cycle, but of particular concern are recent reports of harvest from the Bering Strait region, which lies between Alaska and Russia and is an area used by yellow-billed loons during migration. Annual harvest for this region was reported to be 317, 45, and 1,077 during 2004, 2005, and 2007, respectively. I developed a population model to assess the effect of this reported harvest on population size and trend of yellow-billed loons. Because of the uncertainty regarding actual harvest and definition of the breeding population(s) affected by this harvest, I considered 25 different scenarios. Predicted trends across these 25 scenarios ranged from stability to rapid decline (24 percent per year) with halving of the population in 3 years. Through an assessment of literature and unpublished satellite tracking data, I suggest that the most likely of these 25 scenarios is one where the migrant population subjected to harvest in the Bering Strait includes individuals from breeding populations in Alaska (Arctic coastal plain and the Kotzebue region) and eastern Russia, and for which the magnitude of harvest varies among years and emulates the annual variation of reported harvest during 2004-07 (317, 45, and 1,077 yellow-billed loons). This scenario, which assumes no movement of Canadian breeders through the Bering Strait, predicts a 4.6 percent rate of annual population decline, which would halve the populations in 15 years. Although these model outputs reflect the best available information, confidence in these predictions and applicable scenarios would be greatly enhanced by more information on harvest, rates of survival and reproduction, and migratory pathways.

What Tomorrow May Bring: Trends in Technology and Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molebash, Philip E.

This paper analyzes trends in technology and how they relate to education and then extrapolates these trends in order to predict the future of technology and education. The paper examines how the trends of Moore's Law, the graphical user interface, telecommunications/networks and Metcalfe's Law, the Internet and the World Wide Web, technology…

Australian trampoline injury patterns and trends.

PubMed

Ashby, Karen; Pointer, Sophie; Eager, David; Day, Lesley

2015-10-01

To examine national trampoline injury patterns and trends in the context of improved product safety standards and trampoline design modifications. Review of National Hospital Morbidity data. There were an average 1,737 trampoline injuries reported nationally each year from 2002 to 2011. Both injury frequency and rate grew. Statistically significant rate increases were observed among all age groups, although both are highest among children aged 5-9 years. From 2008/09 there is a possible decreasing trend among the 5-9 age group. Falls predominate and 81% of falls result in fracture. Non-fall injuries increased annually as a proportion of all hospitalised injury although they did not comprise more than 2.4% in any one year. History provides no evidence of an observable effect of voluntary Australian Standards for trampoline safety on population rates for trampoline injury. The major design modification--netted enclosures--could contribute to the risk of injury by leading parents to falsely believe that a netted enclosure eradicates the risk of injury. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

National Trends in Concomitant Psychotropic Medication with Stimulants in Pediatric Visits: Practice versus Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bhatara, Vinod; Feil, Michael; Hoagwood, Kimberly; Vitiello, Benedetto; Zima, Bonnie

2004-01-01

Objectives: (1) To examine U.S. national trends in the use of concomitant pharmacotherapy with the stimulant class of psychotropic drugs in youth; and (2) to present these trends in the context of (a) extant safety and efficacy data, and (b) overall trends in concomitant pharmacotherapy with psychotropic drugs for youth. Methods: Prescribing data…

Trends in readmission rates for safety net hospitals and non-safety net hospitals in the era of the US Hospital Readmission Reduction Program: a retrospective time series analysis using Medicare administrative claims data from 2008 to 2015.

PubMed

Salerno, Amy M; Horwitz, Leora I; Kwon, Ji Young; Herrin, Jeph; Grady, Jacqueline N; Lin, Zhenqiu; Ross, Joseph S; Bernheim, Susannah M

2017-07-13

To compare trends in readmission rates among safety net and non-safety net hospitals under the US Hospital Readmission Reduction Program (HRRP). A retrospective time series analysis using Medicare administrative claims data from January 2008 to June 2015. We examined 3254 US hospitals eligible for penalties under the HRRP, categorised as safety net or non-safety net hospitals based on the hospital's proportion of patients with low socioeconomic status. Admissions for Medicare fee-for-service patients, age ≥65 years, discharged alive, who had a valid five-digit zip code and did not have a principal discharge diagnosis of cancer or psychiatric illness were included, for a total of 52 516 213 index admissions. Mean hospital-level, all-condition, 30-day risk-adjusted standardised unplanned readmission rate, measured quarterly, along with quarterly rate of change, and an interrupted time series examining: April-June 2010, after HRRP was passed, and October-December 2012, after HRRP penalties were implemented. 58.0% (SD 15.3) of safety net hospitals and 17.1% (SD 10.4) of non-safety net hospitals' patients were in the lowest quartile of socioeconomic status. The mean safety net hospital standardised readmission rate declined from 17.0% (SD 3.7) to 13.6% (SD 3.6), whereas the mean non-safety net hospital declined from 15.4% (SD 3.0) to 12.7% (SD 2.5). The absolute difference in rates between safety net and non-safety net hospitals declined from 1.6% (95% CI 1.3 to 1.9) to 0.9% (0.7 to 1.2). The quarterly decline in standardised readmission rates was 0.03 percentage points (95% CI 0.03 to 0.02, p<0.001) greater among safety net hospitals over the entire study period, and no differential change among safety net and non-safety net hospitals was found after either HRRP was passed or penalties enacted. Since HRRP was passed and penalties implemented, readmission rates for safety net hospitals have decreased more rapidly than those for non-safety net hospitals. © Article

Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, George; Cooter, Miranda; Updike, Clark; Carey, Everett; Mackey, Jennifer; Rykowski, Timothy; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Spacecraft trend analysis is a vital mission operations function performed by satellite controllers and engineers, who perform detailed analyses of engineering telemetry data to diagnose subsystem faults and to detect trends that may potentially lead to degraded subsystem performance or failure in the future. It is this latter function that is of greatest importance, for careful trending can often predict or detect events that may lead to a spacecraft's entry into safe-hold. Early prediction and detection of such events could result in the avoidance of, or rapid return to service from, spacecraft safing, which not only results in reduced recovery costs but also in a higher overall level of service for the satellite system. Contemporary spacecraft trending activities are manually intensive and are primarily performed diagnostically after a fault occurs, rather than proactively to predict its occurrence. They also tend to rely on information systems and software that are oudated when compared to current technologies. When coupled with the fact that flight operations teams often have limited resources, proactive trending opportunities are limited, and detailed trend analysis is often reserved for critical responses to safe holds or other on-orbit events such as maneuvers. While the contemporary trend analysis approach has sufficed for current single-spacecraft operations, it will be unfeasible for NASA's planned and proposed space science constellations. Missions such as the Dynamics, Reconnection and Configuration Observatory (DRACO), for example, are planning to launch as many as 100 'nanospacecraft' to form a homogenous constellation. A simple extrapolation of resources and manpower based on single-spacecraft operations suggests that trending for such a large spacecraft fleet will be unmanageable, unwieldy, and cost-prohibitive. It is therefore imperative that an approach to automating the spacecraft trend analysis function be studied, developed, and applied to

Regulatory focus affects predictions of the future.

PubMed

Guo, Tieyuan; Spina, Roy

2015-02-01

This research investigated how regulatory focus might influence trend-reversal predictions. We hypothesized that compared with promotion focus, prevention focus hinders sense of control, which in turn predicts more trend-reversal developments. Studies 1 and 3 revealed that participants expected trend-reversal developments to be more likely to occur when they focused on prevention than when they focused on promotion. Study 2 extended the findings by including a control condition, and revealed that participants expected trend-reversal developments to be more likely to occur in the prevention condition than in the promotion and control conditions. Studies 4 and 5 revealed that participants' chronic prevention focus predicted a low sense of control (Study 4), and that promotion focus predicted a high sense of control (Studies 4 and 5). Furthermore, participants with a high sense of control expected trend-reversal developments to be less likely to occur. Thus, the results provided converging evidence for the hypothesis. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Perceived organizational support for safety and employee safety voice: the mediating role of coworker support for safety.

PubMed

Tucker, Sean; Chmiel, Nik; Turner, Nick; Hershcovis, M Sandy; Stride, Chris B

2008-10-01

In the present study, we modeled 2 sources of safety support (perceived organizational support for safety and perceived coworker support for safety) as predictors of employee safety voice, that is, speaking out in an attempt to change unsafe working conditions. Drawing on social exchange and social impact theories, we hypothesized and tested a mediated model predicting employee safety voice using a cross-sectional survey of urban bus drivers (n = 213) in the United Kingdom. Hierarchical regression analysis showed that perceived coworker support for safety fully mediated the relationship between perceived organizational support for safety and employee safety voice. This study adds to the employee voice literature by evaluating the important role that coworkers can play in encouraging others to speak out about safety issues. Implications for research and practice related to change-oriented safety communication are discussed.

Development of associations and kinetic models for microbiological data to be used in comprehensive food safety prediction software.

PubMed

Halder, Amit; Black, D Glenn; Davidson, P Michael; Datta, Ashim

2010-08-01

The objective of this study was to use an existing database of food products and their associated processes, link it with a list of the foodborne pathogenic microorganisms associated with those products and finally identify growth and inactivation kinetic parameters associated with those pathogens. The database was to be used as a part of the development of comprehensive software which could predict food safety and quality for any food product. The main issues in building such a predictive system included selection of predictive models, associations of different food types with pathogens (as determined from outbreak histories), and variability in data from different experiments. More than 1000 data sets from published literature were analyzed and grouped according to microorganisms and food types. Final grouping of data consisted of the 8 most prevalent pathogens for 14 different food groups, covering all of the foods (>7000) listed in the USDA Natl. Nutrient Database. Data for each group were analyzed in terms of 1st-order inactivation, 1st-order growth, and sigmoidal growth models, and their kinetic response for growth and inactivation as a function of temperature were reported. Means and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for prediction equations. The primary advantage in obtaining group-specific kinetic data is the ability to extend microbiological growth and death simulation to a large array of product and process possibilities, while still being reasonably accurate. Such simulation capability could provide vital ''what if'' scenarios for industry, Extension, and academia in food safety.

Projecting effects of improvements in passive safety of the New Zealand light vehicle fleet.

PubMed

Keall, Michael; Newstead, Stuart; Jones, Wayne

2007-09-01

In the year 2000, as part of the process for setting New Zealand road safety targets, a projection was made for a reduction in social cost of 15.5 percent associated with improvements in crashworthiness, which is a measure of the occupant protection of the light passenger vehicle fleet. Since that document was produced, new estimates of crashworthiness have become available, allowing for a more accurate projection. The objective of this paper is to describe a methodology for projecting changes in casualty rates associated with passive safety features and to apply this methodology to produce a new prediction. The shape of the age distribution of the New Zealand light passenger vehicle fleet was projected to 2010. Projected improvements in crashworthiness and associated reductions in social cost were also modeled based on historical trends. These projections of changes in the vehicle fleet age distribution and of improvements in crashworthiness together provided a basis for estimating the future performance of the fleet in terms of secondary safety. A large social cost reduction of about 22 percent for 2010 compared to the year 2000 was predicted due to the expected huge impact of improvements in passive vehicle features on road trauma in New Zealand. Countries experiencing improvements in their vehicle fleets can also expect significant reductions in road injury compared to a less crashworthy passenger fleet. Such road safety gains can be analyzed using some of the methodology described here.

The useful field of view assessment predicts simulated commercial motor vehicle driving safety.

PubMed

McManus, Benjamin; Heaton, Karen; Vance, David E; Stavrinos, Despina

2016-10-02

The Useful Field of View (UFOV) assessment, a measure of visual speed of processing, has been shown to be a predictive measure of motor vehicle collision (MVC) involvement in an older adult population, but it remains unknown whether UFOV predicts commercial motor vehicle (CMV) driving safety during secondary task engagement. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the UFOV assessment predicts simulated MVCs in long-haul CMV drivers. Fifty licensed CMV drivers (Mage = 39.80, SD = 8.38, 98% male, 56% Caucasian) were administered the 3-subtest version of the UFOV assessment, where lower scores measured in milliseconds indicated better performance. CMV drivers completed 4 simulated drives, each spanning approximately a 22.50-mile distance. Four secondary tasks were presented to participants in a counterbalanced order during the drives: (a) no secondary task, (b) cell phone conversation, (c) text messaging interaction, and (d) e-mailing interaction with an on-board dispatch device. The selective attention subtest significantly predicted simulated MVCs regardless of secondary task. Each 20 ms slower on subtest 3 was associated with a 25% increase in the risk of an MVC in the simulated drive. The e-mail interaction secondary task significantly predicted simulated MVCs with a 4.14 times greater risk of an MVC compared to the no secondary task condition. Subtest 3, a measure of visual speed of processing, significantly predicted MVCs in the email interaction task. Each 20 ms slower on subtest 3 was associated with a 25% increase in the risk of an MVC during the email interaction task. The UFOV subtest 3 may be a promising measure to identify CMV drivers who may be at risk for MVCs or in need of cognitive training aimed at improving speed of processing. Subtest 3 may also identify CMV drivers who are particularly at risk when engaged in secondary tasks while driving.

Safety pharmacology — Current and emerging concepts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hamdam, Junnat; Sethu, Swaminathan; Smith, Trevor

2013-12-01

Safety pharmacology (SP) is an essential part of the drug development process that aims to identify and predict adverse effects prior to clinical trials. SP studies are described in the International Conference on Harmonisation (ICH) S7A and S7B guidelines. The core battery and supplemental SP studies evaluate effects of a new chemical entity (NCE) at both anticipated therapeutic and supra-therapeutic exposures on major organ systems, including cardiovascular, central nervous, respiratory, renal and gastrointestinal. This review outlines the current practices and emerging concepts in SP studies including frontloading, parallel assessment of core battery studies, use of non-standard species, biomarkers, and combiningmore » toxicology and SP assessments. Integration of the newer approaches to routine SP studies may significantly enhance the scope of SP by refining and providing mechanistic insight to potential adverse effects associated with test compounds. - Highlights: • SP — mandatory non-clinical risk assessments performed during drug development. • SP organ system studies ensure the safety of clinical participants in FiH trials. • Frontloading in SP facilitates lead candidate drug selection. • Emerging trends: integrating SP-Toxicological endpoints; combined core battery tests.« less

Detection of carbon monoxide trends in the presence of interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strode, Sarah A.; Pawson, Steven

2013-11-01

in fossil fuel emissions are a major driver of changes in atmospheric CO, but detection of trends in CO from anthropogenic sources is complicated by the presence of large interannual variability (IAV) in biomass burning. We use a multiyear model simulation of CO with year-specific biomass burning to predict the number of years needed to detect the impact of changes in Asian anthropogenic emissions on downwind regions. Our study includes two cases for changing anthropogenic emissions: a stepwise change of 15% and a linear trend of 3% yr-1. We first examine how well the model reproduces the observed IAV of CO over the North Pacific, since this variability impacts the time needed to detect significant anthropogenic trends. The modeled IAV over the North Pacific correlates well with that seen from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument but underestimates the magnitude of the variability. The model predicts that a 3% yr-1 trend in Asian anthropogenic emissions would lead to a statistically significant trend in CO surface concentration in the western United States within 12 years, and accounting for Siberian boreal biomass-burning emissions greatly reduces the number of years needed for trend detection. Combining the modeled trend with the observed MOPITT variability at 500 hPa, we estimate that the 3% yr-1 trend could be detectable in satellite observations over Asia in approximately a decade. Our predicted timescales for trend detection highlight the importance of long-term measurements of CO from satellites.

Improved Performance and Safety for High Energy Batteries Through Use of Hazard Anticipation and Capacity Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atwater, Terrill

1993-01-01

Prediction of the capacity remaining in used high rate, high energy batteries is important information to the user. Knowledge of the capacity remaining in used batteries results in better utilization. This translates into improved readiness and cost savings due to complete, efficient use. High rate batteries, due to their chemical nature, are highly sensitive to misuse (i.e., over discharge or very high rate discharge). Battery failure due to misuse or manufacturing defects could be disastrous. Since high rate, high energy batteries are expensive and energetic, a reliable method of predicting both failures and remaining energy has been actively sought. Due to concerns over safety, the behavior of lithium/sulphur dioxide cells at different temperatures and current drains was examined. The main thrust of this effort was to determine failure conditions for incorporation in hazard anticipation circuitry. In addition, capacity prediction formulas have been developed from test data. A process that performs continuous, real-time hazard anticipation and capacity prediction was developed. The introduction of this process into microchip technology will enable the production of reliable, safe, and efficient high energy batteries.

Restaurant Cooking Trends and Increased Risk for Campylobacter Infection

PubMed Central

Jones, Anna K.; Rigby, Dan; Burton, Michael; Millman, Caroline; Williams, Nicola J.; Jones, Trevor R.; Wigley, Paul; Cross, Paul

2016-01-01

In the United Kingdom, outbreaks of Campylobacter infection are increasingly attributed to undercooked chicken livers, yet many recipes, including those of top chefs, advocate short cooking times and serving livers pink. During 2015, we studied preferences of chefs and the public in the United Kingdom and investigated the link between liver rareness and survival of Campylobacter. We used photographs to assess chefs’ ability to identify chicken livers meeting safe cooking guidelines. To investigate the microbiological safety of livers chefs preferred to serve, we modeled Campylobacter survival in infected chicken livers cooked to various temperatures. Most chefs correctly identified safely cooked livers but overestimated the public’s preference for rareness and thus preferred to serve them more rare. We estimated that 19%–52% of livers served commercially in the United Kingdom fail to reach 70°C and that predicted Campylobacter survival rates are 48%–98%. These findings indicate that cooking trends are linked to increasing Campylobacter infections. PMID:27314748

Restaurant Cooking Trends and Increased Risk for Campylobacter Infection.

PubMed

Jones, Anna K; Rigby, Dan; Burton, Michael; Millman, Caroline; Williams, Nicola J; Jones, Trevor R; Wigley, Paul; O'Brien, Sarah J; Cross, Paul

2016-07-01

In the United Kingdom, outbreaks of Campylobacter infection are increasingly attributed to undercooked chicken livers, yet many recipes, including those of top chefs, advocate short cooking times and serving livers pink. During 2015, we studied preferences of chefs and the public in the United Kingdom and investigated the link between liver rareness and survival of Campylobacter. We used photographs to assess chefs' ability to identify chicken livers meeting safe cooking guidelines. To investigate the microbiological safety of livers chefs preferred to serve, we modeled Campylobacter survival in infected chicken livers cooked to various temperatures. Most chefs correctly identified safely cooked livers but overestimated the public's preference for rareness and thus preferred to serve them more rare. We estimated that 19%-52% of livers served commercially in the United Kingdom fail to reach 70°C and that predicted Campylobacter survival rates are 48%-98%. These findings indicate that cooking trends are linked to increasing Campylobacter infections.

Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, Gordon R.

1998-05-01

The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

Identification of Vehicle Health Assurance Related Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa; Evans, Joni K.; Barr, Lawrence C.; Leone, Karen M.; Reveley, Mary S.

2014-01-01

Trend analysis in aviation as related to vehicle health management (VHM) was performed by reviewing the most current statistical and prognostics data available from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) incident, and the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident datasets. In addition, future directions in aviation technology related to VHM research areas were assessed through the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementations (SERFIs), the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Most-Wanted List and recent open safety recommendations, the National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey of Civil Aeronautics, and the Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) areas of change. Future research direction in the VHM research areas is evidently strong as seen from recent research solicitations from the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR), and VHM-related technologies actively being developed by aviation industry leaders, including GE, Boeing, Airbus, and UTC Aerospace Systems. Given the highly complex VHM systems, modifications can be made in the future so that the Vehicle Systems Safety Technology Project (VSST) technical challenges address inadequate maintenance crew's trainings and skills, and the certification methods of such systems as recommended by the NTSB, NRC, and FAST areas of change.

Improving patient safety culture in Saudi Arabia (2012-2015): trending, improvement and benchmarking.

PubMed

Alswat, Khalid; Abdalla, Rawia Ahmad Mustafa; Titi, Maher Abdelraheim; Bakash, Maram; Mehmood, Faiza; Zubairi, Beena; Jamal, Diana; El-Jardali, Fadi

2017-08-02

Measuring patient safety culture can provide insight into areas for improvement and help monitor changes over time. This study details the findings of a re-assessment of patient safety culture in a multi-site Medical City in Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Results were compared to an earlier assessment conducted in 2012 and benchmarked with regional and international studies. Such assessments can provide hospital leadership with insight on how their hospital is performing on patient safety culture composites as a result of quality improvement plans. This paper also explored the association between patient safety culture predictors and patient safety grade, perception of patient safety, frequency of events reported and number of events reported. We utilized a customized version of the patient safety culture survey developed by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. The Medical City is a tertiary care teaching facility composed of two sites (total capacity of 904 beds). Data was analyzed using SPSS 24 at a significance level of 0.05. A t-Test was used to compare results from the 2012 survey to that conducted in 2015. Two adopted Generalized Estimating Equations in addition to two linear models were used to assess the association between composites and patient safety culture outcomes. Results were also benchmarked against similar initiatives in Lebanon, Palestine and USA. Areas of strength in 2015 included Teamwork within units, and Organizational Learning-Continuous Improvement; areas requiring improvement included Non-Punitive Response to Error, and Staffing. Comparing results to the 2012 survey revealed improvement on some areas but non-punitive response to error and Staffing remained the lowest scoring composites in 2015. Regression highlighted significant association between managerial support, organizational learning and feedback and improved survey outcomes. Comparison to international benchmarks revealed that the hospital is performing at or

Organizational safety climate and supervisor safety enforcement: Multilevel explorations of the causes of accident underreporting.

PubMed

Probst, Tahira M

2015-11-01

According to national surveillance statistics, over 3 million employees are injured each year; yet, research indicates that these may be substantial underestimates of the true prevalence. The purpose of the current project was to empirically test the hypothesis that organizational safety climate and transactional supervisor safety leadership would predict the extent to which accidents go unreported by employees. Using hierarchical linear modeling and survey data collected from 1,238 employees in 33 organizations, employee-level supervisor safety enforcement behaviors (and to a less consistent extent, organizational-level safety climate) predicted employee accident underreporting. There was also a significant cross-level interaction, such that the effect of supervisor enforcement on underreporting was attenuated in organizations with a positive safety climate. These results may benefit human resources and safety professionals by pinpointing methods of increasing the accuracy of accident reporting, reducing actual safety incidents, and reducing the costs to individuals and organizations that result from underreporting. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Development of Flight Safety Prediction Methodology for U. S. Naval Safety Center. Revision 1

DTIC Science & Technology

1970-02-01

Safety Center. The methodology develoned encompassed functional analysis of the F-4J aircraft, assessment of the importance of safety- sensitive ... Sensitivity ... ....... . 4-8 V 4.5 Model Implementation ........ ......... . 4-10 4.5.1 Functional Analysis ..... ........... . 4-11 4. 5. 2 Major...Function Sensitivity Assignment ........ ... 4-13 i 4.5.3 Link Dependency Assignment ... ......... . 4-14 4.5.4 Computer Program for Sensitivity

Prediction of HIV-1 sensitivity to broadly neutralizing antibodies shows a trend towards resistance over time.

PubMed

Hake, Anna; Pfeifer, Nico

2017-10-01

Treatment with broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) has proven effective against HIV-1 infections in humanized mice, non-human primates, and humans. Due to the high mutation rate of HIV-1, resistance testing of the patient's viral strains to the bNAbs is still inevitable. So far, bNAb resistance can only be tested in expensive and time-consuming neutralization experiments. Here, we introduce well-performing computational models that predict the neutralization response of HIV-1 to bNAbs given only the envelope sequence of the virus. Using non-linear support vector machines based on a string kernel, the models learnt even the important binding sites of bNAbs with more complex epitopes, i.e., the CD4 binding site targeting bNAbs, proving thereby the biological relevance of the models. To increase the interpretability of the models, we additionally provide a new kind of motif logo for each query sequence, visualizing those residues of the test sequence that influenced the prediction outcome the most. Moreover, we predicted the neutralization sensitivity of around 34,000 HIV-1 samples from different time points to a broad range of bNAbs, enabling the first analysis of HIV resistance to bNAbs on a global scale. The analysis showed for many of the bNAbs a trend towards antibody resistance over time, which had previously only been discovered for a small non-representative subset of the global HIV-1 population.

Prediction of HIV-1 sensitivity to broadly neutralizing antibodies shows a trend towards resistance over time

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Treatment with broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) has proven effective against HIV-1 infections in humanized mice, non-human primates, and humans. Due to the high mutation rate of HIV-1, resistance testing of the patient’s viral strains to the bNAbs is still inevitable. So far, bNAb resistance can only be tested in expensive and time-consuming neutralization experiments. Here, we introduce well-performing computational models that predict the neutralization response of HIV-1 to bNAbs given only the envelope sequence of the virus. Using non-linear support vector machines based on a string kernel, the models learnt even the important binding sites of bNAbs with more complex epitopes, i.e., the CD4 binding site targeting bNAbs, proving thereby the biological relevance of the models. To increase the interpretability of the models, we additionally provide a new kind of motif logo for each query sequence, visualizing those residues of the test sequence that influenced the prediction outcome the most. Moreover, we predicted the neutralization sensitivity of around 34,000 HIV-1 samples from different time points to a broad range of bNAbs, enabling the first analysis of HIV resistance to bNAbs on a global scale. The analysis showed for many of the bNAbs a trend towards antibody resistance over time, which had previously only been discovered for a small non-representative subset of the global HIV-1 population. PMID:29065122

Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

2007-06-01

With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

Trends in Reported Foodborne Illness in the United States; 1996-2013.

PubMed

Powell, Mark R

2016-08-01

Retrospective review is a key to designing effective food safety measures. The analysis examines trends in the reported incidence of illness due to bacterial pathogens commonly transmitted by food in the United States during 1996-2013 with and without specifying a model form for trend. The findings indicate early declines in reported incidence followed by a period of no significant trend for Campylobacter, Listeria, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157, and Yersinia. The results are inconclusive about whether there is no trend or an increasing trend for Salmonella. While Shigella exhibits a continuous decline, Vibrio exhibits a continuous increase. Overall, the findings indicate a lack of evidence for continuous reduction in illness due to bacterial pathogens commonly transmitted by food in the United States during 1996-2013. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Nuclear power: Siting and safety

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Openshaw, S.

1986-01-01

By 2030, half, or even two-thirds, of all electricity may be generated by nuclear power. Major reactor accidents are still expected to be rare occurrences, but nuclear safety is largely a matter of faith. Terrorist attacks, sabotage, and human error could cause a significant accident. Reactor siting can offer an additional, design-independent margin of safety. Remote geographical sites for new plants would minimize health risks, protect the industry from negative changes in public opinion concerning nuclear energy, and improve long-term public acceptance of nuclear power. U.K. siting practices usually do not consider the contribution to safety that could be obtainedmore » from remote sites. This book discusses the present trends of siting policies of nuclear power and their design-independent margin of safety.« less

ASAP Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

This is the First Quarterly Report for the newly reconstituted Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP). The NASA Administrator rechartered the Panel on November 18,2003, to provide an independent, vigilant, and long-term oversight of NASA's safety policies and programs well beyond Return to Flight of the Space Shuttle. The charter was revised to be consistent with the original intent of Congress in enacting the statute establishing ASAP in 1967 to focus on NASA's safety and quality systems, including industrial and systems safety, risk-management and trend analysis, and the management of these activities.The charter also was revised to provide more timely feedback to NASA by requiring quarterly rather than annual reports, and by requiring ASAP to perform special assessments with immediate feedback to NASA. ASAP was positioned to help institutionalize the safety culture of NASA in the post- Stafford-Covey Return to Flight environment.

Improved guidelines for estimating the Highway safety manual calibration factors.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

Crash prediction models can be used to predict the number of crashes and evaluate roadway safety. Part C of the first edition of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) provides safety performance functions (SPFs). The HSM addendum that includes freeway and ...

Examining the safety of PPAR agonists - current trends and future prospects.

PubMed

Bortolini, Michele; Wright, Matthew B; Bopst, Martin; Balas, Bogdana

2013-01-01

The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)-α and -γ agonists, fibrates and glitazones, are effective treatments for dyslipidemia and type 2 diabetes mellitus, respectively, but exhibit class-related, as well as compound-specific safety characteristics. This article reviews the profiles of PPAR-α, PPAR-γ, and dual PPAR-α/γ agonists with regard to class-related and compound-specific efficacy and adverse effects. We explore how learnings from first-generation drugs are being applied to develop safer PPAR-targeted therapies. The finding that rosiglitazone may increase risk for cardiovascular events has led to regulatory guidelines requiring demonstration of cardiovascular safety in appropriate outcome trials for new type 2 diabetes mellitus drugs. The emerging data on the possibly increased risk of bladder cancer with pioglitazone may prompt the need for post-approval safety studies for new drugs. Since PPAR-α and -γ affect key cardiometabolic risk factors (diabetic dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, hyperglycemia, and inflammation) in a complementary fashion, combining their benefits has emerged as a particularly attractive option. New PPAR-targeted therapies that balance the relative potency and/or activity toward PPAR-α and -γ have shown promise in retaining efficacy while reducing potential side effects.

Calibration factors handbook : safety prediction models calibrated with Texas highway system.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-01

Highway safety is an ongoing concern to the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT). As part of its : proactive commitment to improving highway safety, TxDOT is moving toward including quantitative safety : analyses earlier in the project developm...

Weather Safety - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Safety Weather Safety This page weather safety. StormReady NOAA Weather Radio Emergency Managers Information Network U.S. Hazard Assmt

Predicting workers' compensation claims and disciplinary actions using SecureFit®: Further support for integrative models of workplace safety.

PubMed

O'Connell, Matthew; Delgado, Kristin; Lawrence, Amie; Kung, Mavis; Tristan, Esteban

2017-06-01

A growing body of applied research has identified certain psychological traits that are predictive of worker safety. However, most of these studies suffer from an overreliance on common method bias caused by self-report measures of both: (a) personal factors such as personality traits; and (b) outcomes such as safety behaviors and injuries. This study utilized archival data from 796 employees at a large U.S. automobile manufacturer. Data were gathered on a pre-employment assessment, SecureFit®, that measured key personality characteristics such as conscientiousness, locus of control, and risk taking. In addition, objective measures of workers' compensation claims and disciplinary actions were also gathered. The results indicated that disciplinary actions and workers' compensation claims were strongly correlated. It also demonstrated that the pre-employment assessment was able to predict both disciplinary actions and workers' compensation claims up to 12months in the future. Screening out just 8% of the applicant sample using the assessment would have resulted in a 35% reduction in disciplinary actions and 46% in workers' compensation claims, respectively. The study found a very strong relationship between counterproductive work behaviors (CWBs), such as not following rules, and workers' compensation claims. It also found a strong relationship between a combination of personality traits that have been shown to be associated with both variables, although the current study was able to demonstrate that relationship with objective measure of both variables. Individuals who receive disciplinary actions for things such as not following rules, not coming to work on time, etc. are significantly more likely to also be involved in serious safety incidents, and vice versa. Identifying those individuals early on in the hiring process and screening them out can significantly reduce the number of CWBs as well as workers' compensation claims. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and

Home drinking in the UK: trends and causes.

PubMed

Foster, John H; Ferguson, Colin S

2012-01-01

To explore the trend in the UK to consume alcohol at home rather than at licensed premises. A Medline search entering the terms 'home drinking', 'alcohol' and 'adult' covering the period 2000-2011 yielded 48 articles, of which 6 met the criteria to be included in the review. Grey literature including survey and market research data were reviewed. In the UK, since 1970 there has been trend for beer to be consumed at home more often than in licensed premises and that the overall trend towards greater home drinking has increased since 2000. The main reasons given are convenience, cost, safety, autonomy and stress relief. There has also been an increase in the practice known as 'pre-loading' (drinking before going out). Adults who drink mainly at home report that they are aware that they run a risk of higher overall alcohol consumption but tend to play down the possibility that increased consumption may lead to longer-term harm. Home drinking trends may have long-term public health consequences. Greater understanding of the drivers of this trend will help policy-makers to respond to these societal changes.

A spurious warming trend in the NMME equatorial Pacific SST hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Chul-Su; Huang, Bohua

2017-06-01

Using seasonal hindcasts of six different models participating in the North American Multimodel Ensemble project, the trend of the predicted sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific for 1982-2014 at each lead month and its temporal evolution with respect to the lead month are investigated for all individual models. Since the coupled models are initialized with the observed ocean, atmosphere, land states from observation-based reanalysis, some of them using their own data assimilation process, one would expect that the observed SST trend is reasonably well captured in their seasonal predictions. However, although the observed SST features a weak-cooling trend for the 33-year period with La Niña-like spatial pattern in the tropical central-eastern Pacific all year round, it is demonstrated that all models having a time-dependent realistic concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) display a warming trend in the equatorial Pacific that amplifies as the lead-time increases. In addition, these models' behaviors are nearly independent of the starting month of the hindcasts although the growth rates of the trend vary with the lead month. This key characteristic of the forecasted SST trend in the equatorial Pacific is also identified in the NCAR CCSM3 hindcasts that have the GHG concentration for a fixed year. This suggests that a global warming forcing may not play a significant role in generating the spurious warming trend of the coupled models' SST hindcasts in the tropical Pacific. This model SST trend in the tropical central-eastern Pacific, which is opposite to the observed one, causes a developing El Niño-like warming bias in the forecasted SST with its peak in boreal winter. Its implications for seasonal prediction are discussed.

Natural Language Interface for Safety Certification of Safety-Critical Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Denney, Ewen; Fischer, Bernd

2011-01-01

Model-based design and automated code generation are being used increasingly at NASA. The trend is to move beyond simulation and prototyping to actual flight code, particularly in the guidance, navigation, and control domain. However, there are substantial obstacles to more widespread adoption of code generators in such safety-critical domains. Since code generators are typically not qualified, there is no guarantee that their output is correct, and consequently the generated code still needs to be fully tested and certified. The AutoCert generator plug-in supports the certification of automatically generated code by formally verifying that the generated code is free of different safety violations, by constructing an independently verifiable certificate, and by explaining its analysis in a textual form suitable for code reviews.

Adjusted regression trend test for a multicenter clinical trial.

PubMed

Quan, H; Capizzi, T

1999-06-01

Studies using a series of increasing doses of a compound, including a zero dose control, are often conducted to study the effect of the compound on the response of interest. For a one-way design, Tukey et al. (1985, Biometrics 41, 295-301) suggested assessing trend by examining the slopes of regression lines under arithmetic, ordinal, and arithmetic-logarithmic dose scalings. They reported the smallest p-value for the three significance tests on the three slopes for safety assessments. Capizzi et al. (1992, Biometrical Journal 34, 275-289) suggested an adjusted trend test, which adjusts the p-value using a trivariate t-distribution, the joint distribution of the three slope estimators. In this paper, we propose an adjusted regression trend test suitable for two-way designs, particularly for multicenter clinical trials. In a step-down fashion, the proposed trend test can be applied to a multicenter clinical trial to compare each dose with the control. This sequential procedure is a closed testing procedure for a trend alternative. Therefore, it adjusts p-values and maintains experimentwise error rate. Simulation results show that the step-down trend test is overall more powerful than a step-down least significant difference test.

Feasibility of Forecasting Highway Safety in Support of Safety Incentive and Safety Target Programs.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-11-01

Using the frequency of fatal crashes from the current observation period (e.g. month, year, etc.) as the : prediction of expected future performance does not account for changes in safety that result from : increases in exposure (population, addition...

Current Trends in Discharge Disposition and Post-discharge Care After Total Joint Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Tarity, T David; Swall, Marion M

2017-09-01

The purpose of this manuscript is to review published literature over the last 5 years to assess recent trends and influencing factors regarding discharge disposition and post-discharge care following total joint arthroplasty. We evaluated instruments proposed to predict a patient's discharge disposition and summarize reports investigating the safety in sending more patients home by reviewing complications and readmission rates. Current literature supports decreased length of hospital stay and increased discharge to home with cost savings and stable readmission rates. Surgeons with defined clinical pathways and those who shape patient expectations may more effectively control costs than those without defined pathways. Further research is needed analyzing best practices in care coordination, managing patient expectations, and cost-effective analysis of home discharge while at the same time ensuring patient outcomes are optimized following total joint arthroplasty.

Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends.

PubMed

Dennis, Emily B; Morgan, Byron J T; Brereton, Tom M; Roy, David B; Fox, Richard

2017-12-01

Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly Count [BBC]) with those from long-running, standardized monitoring data collected by experienced observers (U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme [UKBMS]). BBC data are gathered during an annual 3-week period, whereas UKBMS sampling takes place over 6 months each year. An initial comparison with UKBMS data restricted to the 3-week BBC period revealed that species population changes were significantly correlated between the 2 sources. The short-duration sampling season rendered BBC counts susceptible to bias caused by interannual phenological variation in the timing of species' flight periods. The BBC counts were positively related to butterfly phenology and sampling effort. Annual estimates of species abundance and population trends predicted from models including BBC data and weather covariates as a proxy for phenology correlated significantly with those derived from UKBMS data. Overall, citizen science data obtained using a simple sampling protocol produced comparable estimates of butterfly species abundance to data collected through standardized monitoring methods. Although caution is urged in extrapolating from this U.K. study of a small number of common, conspicuous insects, we found that mass-participation citizen science can simultaneously contribute to public engagement and biodiversity monitoring. Mass-participation citizen science is not an adequate replacement for standardized biodiversity monitoring but may extend and complement it (e.g., through sampling different land-use types), as well as serving to reconnect an increasingly urban human population with nature. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published

Use of read-across and computer-based predictive analysis for the safety assessment of PEG cocamines.

PubMed

Skare, Julie A; Blackburn, Karen; Wu, Shengde; Re, Thomas A; Duche, Daniel; Ringeissen, Stephanie; Bjerke, Donald L; Srinivasan, Viny; Eisenmann, Carol

2015-04-01

In the European Union animal testing has been eliminated for cosmetic ingredients while the US Cosmetic Ingredient Review Expert Panel may request data from animal studies. The use of read-across and predictive toxicology provides a path for filling data gaps without additional animal testing. The PEG cocamines are tertiary amines with an alkyl group derived from coconut fatty acids and two PEG chains of varying length. Toxicology data gaps for the PEG cocamines can be addressed by read-across based on structure-activity relationship using the framework described by Wu et al. (2010) for identifying suitable structural analogs. Data for structural analogs supports the conclusion that the PEG cocamines are non-genotoxic and not expected to exhibit systemic or developmental/reproductive toxicity with use in cosmetics. Due to lack of reliable dermal sensitization data for suitable analogs, this endpoint was addressed using predictive software (TIMES SS) as a first step (Laboratory of Mathematical Chemistry). The prediction for PEG cocamines was the same as that for PEGs, which have been concluded to not present a significant concern for dermal sensitization. This evaluation for PEG cocamines demonstrates the utility of read-across and predictive toxicology tools to assess the safety of cosmetic ingredients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

EHS Open House: Learning Lab and Life Safety | Poster

Cancer.gov

Attendees of the Environment, Health, and Safety Program’s (EHS’) Open House had a chance to learn self-defense techniques, as well as visit with vendors demonstrating the latest trends in laboratory safety. “Working with sharps in labs is inherently dangerous, so EHS proactively focused on featuring equipment that would promote safer techniques,” said Siobhan Tierney, program

Analysis of Aviation Safety Reporting System Incident Data Associated With the Technical Challenges of the Vehicle Systems Safety Technology Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Withrow, Colleen A.; Reveley, Mary S.

2014-01-01

This analysis was conducted to support the Vehicle Systems Safety Technology (VSST) Project of the Aviation Safety Program (AVsP) milestone VSST4.2.1.01, "Identification of VSST-Related Trends." In particular, this is a review of incident data from the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). The following three VSST-related technical challenges (TCs) were the focus of the incidents searched in the ASRS database: (1) Vechicle health assurance, (2) Effective crew-system interactions and decisions in all conditions; and (3) Aircraft loss of control prevention, mitigation, and recovery.

100 years of occupational safety research: From basic protections and work analysis to a multilevel view of workplace safety and risk.

PubMed

Hofmann, David A; Burke, Michael J; Zohar, Dov

2017-03-01

Starting with initiatives dating back to the mid-1800s, we provide a high-level review of the key trends and developments in the application of applied psychology to the field of occupational safety. Factory laws, basic worker compensation, and research on accident proneness comprised much of the early work. Thus, early research and practice very much focused on the individual worker, the design of their work, and their basic protection. Gradually and over time, the focus began to navigate further into the organizational context. One of the early efforts to broaden beyond the individual worker was a significant focus on safety-related training during the middle of the 20th century. Toward the latter years of the 20th century and continuing the move from the individual worker to the broader organizational context, there was a significant increase in leadership and organizational climate (safety climate) research. Ultimately, this resulted in the development of a multilevel model of safety culture/climate. After discussing these trends, we identify key conclusions and opportunities for future research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Outcome trends and safety measures after 30 years of laparoscopic cholecystectomy: a systematic review and pooled data analysis.

PubMed

Pucher, Philip H; Brunt, L Michael; Davies, Neil; Linsk, Ali; Munshi, Amani; Rodriguez, H Alejandro; Fingerhut, Abe; Fanelli, Robert D; Asbun, Horacio; Aggarwal, Rajesh

2018-05-01

Laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC), one of the most commonly performed surgical procedures, remains associated with significant major morbidity including bile leak and bile duct injury (BDI). The effect of changes in practice over time, and of interventions to improve patient safety, on morbidity rates is not well understood. The aim of this review was to describe current incidence rates and trends for BDI and other complications during and after LC, and to identify risk factors and preventative measures associated with morbidity and BDI. PubMed, MEDLINE, and Web of Science database searches and data extraction were conducted for studies which reported individual complications and complication rates following laparoscopic cholecystectomy in a representative population. Outcomes data were pooled. Meta-regression analysis was performed to assess factors associated with conversion, morbidity, and BDI rates. One hundred and fifty-one studies reporting outcomes for 505,292 patients were included in the final quantitative synthesis. Overall morbidity, BDI, and mortality rates were 1.6-5.3%, 0.32-0.52%, and 0.08-0.14%, respectively. Reported BDI rates reduced over time (1994-1999: 0.69(0.52-0.84)% versus 2010-2015 0.22(0.02-0.40)%, p = 0.011). Meta-regression analysis suggested higher conversion rates in developed versus developing countries (4.7 vs. 3.4%), though a greater degree of reporting bias was present in these studies, with no other significant associations identified. Overall, trends suggest a reduction in BDI over time with unchanged morbidity and mortality rates. However, data and reporting are heterogenous. Establishment of international outcomes registries should be considered.

Clearance Prediction Methodology Needs Fundamental Improvement: Trends Common to Rat and Human Hepatocytes/Microsomes and Implications for Experimental Methodology.

PubMed

Wood, F L; Houston, J B; Hallifax, D

2017-11-01

Although prediction of clearance using hepatocytes and liver microsomes has long played a decisive role in drug discovery, it is widely acknowledged that reliably accurate prediction is not yet achievable despite the predominance of hepatically cleared drugs. Physiologically mechanistic methodology tends to underpredict clearance by several fold, and empirical correction of this bias is confounded by imprecision across drugs. Understanding the causes of prediction uncertainty has been slow, possibly reflecting poor resolution of variables associated with donor source and experimental methods, particularly for the human situation. It has been reported that among published human hepatocyte predictions there was a tendency for underprediction to increase with increasing in vivo intrinsic clearance, suggesting an inherent limitation using this particular system. This implied an artifactual rate limitation in vitro, although preparative effects on cell stability and performance were not yet resolved from assay design limitations. Here, to resolve these issues further, we present an up-to-date and comprehensive examination of predictions from published rat as well as human studies (where n = 128 and 101 hepatocytes and n = 71 and 83 microsomes, respectively) to assess system performance more independently. We report a clear trend of increasing underprediction with increasing in vivo intrinsic clearance, which is similar both between species and between in vitro systems. Hence, prior concerns arising specifically from human in vitro systems may be unfounded and the focus of investigation in the future should be to minimize the potential in vitro assay limitations common to whole cells and subcellular fractions. Copyright © 2017 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

A gradient of childhood self-control predicts health, wealth, and public safety

PubMed Central

Moffitt, Terrie E.; Arseneault, Louise; Belsky, Daniel; Dickson, Nigel; Hancox, Robert J.; Harrington, HonaLee; Houts, Renate; Poulton, Richie; Roberts, Brent W.; Ross, Stephen; Sears, Malcolm R.; Thomson, W. Murray; Caspi, Avshalom

2011-01-01

Policy-makers are considering large-scale programs aimed at self-control to improve citizens’ health and wealth and reduce crime. Experimental and economic studies suggest such programs could reap benefits. Yet, is self-control important for the health, wealth, and public safety of the population? Following a cohort of 1,000 children from birth to the age of 32 y, we show that childhood self-control predicts physical health, substance dependence, personal finances, and criminal offending outcomes, following a gradient of self-control. Effects of children's self-control could be disentangled from their intelligence and social class as well as from mistakes they made as adolescents. In another cohort of 500 sibling-pairs, the sibling with lower self-control had poorer outcomes, despite shared family background. Interventions addressing self-control might reduce a panoply of societal costs, save taxpayers money, and promote prosperity. PMID:21262822

Predictive modelling for startup and investor relationship based on crowdfunding platform data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alamsyah, Andry; Buono Asto Nugroho, Tri

2018-03-01

Crowdfunding platform is a place where startup shows off publicly their idea for the purpose to get their project funded. Crowdfunding platform such as Kickstarter are becoming popular today, it provides the efficient way for startup to get funded without liabilities, it also provides variety project category that can be participated. There is an available safety procedure to ensure achievable low-risk environment. The startup promoted project must accomplish their funded goal target. If they fail to reach the target, then there is no investment activity take place. It motivates startup to be more active to promote or disseminate their project idea and it also protect investor from losing money. The study objective is to predict the successfulness of proposed project and mapping investor trend using data mining framework. To achieve the objective, we proposed 3 models. First model is to predict whether a project is going to be successful or failed using K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN). Second model is to predict the number of successful project using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Third model is to map the trend of investor in investing the project using K-Means clustering algorithm. KNN gives 99.04% model accuracy, while ANN best configuration gives 16-14-1 neuron layers and 0.2 learning rate, and K-Means gives 6 best separation clusters. The results of those models can help startup or investor to make decision regarding startup investment.

The new car assessment program: does it predict the relative safety of vehicles in actual crashes?

PubMed

Nirula, Ram; Mock, Charles N; Nathens, Avery B; Grossman, David C

2004-10-01

Federal motor vehicle safety standards are based on crash test dummy analyses that estimate the relative risk of traumatic brain injury (TBI) and severe thoracic injury (STI) by quantifying head (Head Injury Criterion [HIC]) and chest (Chest Gravity Score [CGS]) acceleration. The New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) combines these probabilities to yield the vehicle's five-star rating. The validity of the NCAP system as it relates to an actual motor vehicle crash (MVC) remains undetermined. We therefore sought to determine whether HIC and CGS accurately predict TBI and STI in actual crashes, and compared the NCAP five-star rating system to the rates of TBI and/or STI in actual MVCs. We analyzed frontal crashes with restrained drivers from the 1994 to 1998 National Automotive Sampling System. The relationship of HIC and CGS to the probabilities of TBI and STI derived from crash tests were respectively compared with the HIC-TBI and CGS-STI risk relationships observed in actual crashes while controlling for covariates. Receiver operating characteristic curves determined the sensitivity and specificity of HIC and CGS as predictors of TBI and STI, respectively. Estimates of the likelihood of TBI and/or STI (in actual MVCs) were compared with the expected probabilities of TBI and STI (determined by crash test analysis), as they relate to NCAP ratings. The crash tests overestimate TBI likelihood at HIC scores >800 and underestimate it at scores <500. STI likelihood is overestimated when CGS exceeds 40 g. Receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated poor sensitivity and specificity of HIC and CGS in predicting injury. The actual MVC injury probability estimates did not vary between vehicles of different NCAP rating. HIC and CGS are poor predictors of TBI and STI in actual MVCs. The NCAP five-star rating system is unable to differentiate vehicles of varying crashworthiness in actual MVCs. More sensitive parameters need to be developed and incorporated into vehicle

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Bruehl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; deGrandpre, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.;

Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Brühl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; de Grandpré, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.; Portmann, R. W.; Rognerud, B.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Smyshlyaev, S.; Nagashima, T.; Velders, G. J. M.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Xia, J.

2006-01-01

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Future Trends in Education Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newitt, Jane, Ed.

These essays deal explicitly with the future of the public schools and implicitly with the problem of making responsible predictions. Following an introduction by Herman Kahn, the first two essays deal with the social and social policy context of the schools. B. Bruce-Briggs contrasts alternative long-term and current cultural trends. Jane Newitt,…

Temporal Trends and Future Prediction of Breast Cancer Incidence Across Age Groups in Trivandrum, South India.

PubMed

Mathew, Aleyamma; George, Preethi Sara; Arjunan, Asha; Augustine, Paul; Kalavathy, Mc; Padmakumari, G; Mathew, Beela Sarah

2016-01-01

Increasing breast cancer (BC) incidence rates have been reported from India; causal factors for this increased incidence are not understood and diagnosis is mostly in advanced stages. Trivandrum exhibits the highest BC incidence rates in India. This study aimed to estimate trends in incidence by age from 2005- 2014, to predict rates through 2020 and to assess the stage at diagnosis of BC in Trivandrum. BC cases were obtained from the Population Based Cancer Registry, Trivandrum. Distribution of stage at diagnosis and incidence rates of BC [Age-specific (ASpR), crude (CR) and age-standardized (ASR)] are described and employed with a joinpoint regression model to estimate average annual percent changes (AAPC) and a Bayesian model to estimate predictive rates. BC accounts for 31% (2681/8737) of all female cancers in Trivandrum. Thirty-five percent (944/2681) are <50 years of age and only 9% present with stage I disease. Average age increased from 53 to 56.4 years (p=0.0001), CR (per 105 women) increased from 39 (ASR: 35.2) to 55.4 (ASR: 43.4), AAPC for CR was 5.0 (p=0.001) and ASR was 3.1 (p=0.001). Rates increased from 50 years. Predicted ASpR is 174 in 50-59 years, 231 in > 60 years and overall CR is 80 (ASR: 57) for 2019- 20. BC, mostly diagnosed in advanced stages, is rising rapidly in South India with large increases likely in the future; particularly among post-menopausal women. This increase might be due to aging and/or changes in lifestyle factors. Reasons for the increased incidence and late stage diagnosis need to be studied.

Process safety improvement--quality and target zero.

PubMed

Van Scyoc, Karl

2008-11-15

Process safety practitioners have adopted quality management principles in design of process safety management systems with positive effect, yet achieving safety objectives sometimes remain a distant target. Companies regularly apply tools and methods which have roots in quality and productivity improvement. The "plan, do, check, act" improvement loop, statistical analysis of incidents (non-conformities), and performance trending popularized by Dr. Deming are now commonly used in the context of process safety. Significant advancements in HSE performance are reported after applying methods viewed as fundamental for quality management. In pursuit of continual process safety improvement, the paper examines various quality improvement methods, and explores how methods intended for product quality can be additionally applied to continual improvement of process safety. Methods such as Kaizen, Poke yoke, and TRIZ, while long established for quality improvement, are quite unfamiliar in the process safety arena. These methods are discussed for application in improving both process safety leadership and field work team performance. Practical ways to advance process safety, based on the methods, are given.

EHS Open House: Learning Lab and Life Safety | Poster

Cancer.gov

Attendees of the Environment, Health, and Safety Program’s (EHS’) Open House had a chance to learn self-defense techniques, as well as visit with vendors demonstrating the latest trends in laboratory safety. “Working with sharps in labs is inherently dangerous, so EHS proactively focused on featuring equipment that would promote safer techniques,” said Siobhan Tierney, program manager, EHS.

Characterizing and enhancing the safety of future plastic and composite intensive vehicles (PCIVs).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

There is concern that a trend toward smaller, lighter, fuel-efficient vehicles could adversely affect overall fleet safety. Since 2006, the U.S. Congress has directed the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to examine the possible safet...

Current Trends in Nursing Informatics: Results of an International Survey.

PubMed

Peltonen, Laura-Maria; Alhuwail, Dari; Ali, Samira; Badger, Martha K; Eler, Gabrielle Jacklin; Georgsson, Mattias; Islam, Tasneem; Jeon, Eunjoo; Jung, Hyunggu; Kuo, Chiu-Hsiang; Lewis, Adrienne; Pruinelli, Lisiane; Ronquillo, Charlene; Sarmiento, Raymond Francis; Sommer, Janine; Tayaben, Jude L; Topaz, Maxim

2016-01-01

Nursing informatics (NI) can help provide effective and safe healthcare. This study aimed to describe current research trends in NI. In the summer 2015, the IMIA-NI Students Working Group created and distributed an online international survey of the current NI trends. A total of 402 responses were submitted from 44 countries. We identified a top five NI research areas: standardized terminologies, mobile health, clinical decision support, patient safety and big data research. NI research funding was considered to be difficult to acquire by the respondents. Overall, current NI research on education, clinical practice, administration and theory is still scarce, with theory being the least common. Further research is needed to explain the impact of these trends and the needs from clinical practice.

Individual employee's perceptions of " Group-level Safety Climate" (supervisor referenced) versus " Organization-level Safety Climate" (top management referenced): Associations with safety outcomes for lone workers.

PubMed

Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Lee, Jin; McFadden, Anna C; Rineer, Jennifer; Robertson, Michelle M

2017-01-01

Research has shown that safety climate is among the strongest predictors of safety behavior and safety outcomes in a variety of settings. Previous studies have established that safety climate is a multi-faceted construct referencing multiple levels of management within a company, most generally: the organization level (employee perceptions of top management's commitment to and prioritization of safety) and group level (employee perceptions of direct supervisor's commitment to and prioritization of safety). Yet, no research to date has examined the potential interaction between employees' organization-level safety climate (OSC) and group-level safety climate (GSC) perceptions. Furthermore, prior research has mainly focused on traditional work environments in which supervisors and workers interact in the same location throughout the day. Little research has been done to examine safety climate with regard to lone workers. The present study aims to address these gaps by examining the relationships between truck drivers' (as an example of lone workers) perceptions of OSC and GSC, both potential linear and non-linear relationships, and how these predict important safety outcomes. Participants were 8095 truck drivers from eight trucking companies in the United States with an average response rate of 44.8%. Results showed that employees' OSC and GSC perceptions are highly correlated (r= 0.78), but notable gaps between the two were observed for some truck drivers. Uniquely, both OSC and GSC scores were found to have curvilinear relationships with safe driving behavior, and both scores were equally predictive of safe driving behavior. Results also showed the two levels of climate significantly interacted with one another to predict safety behavior such that if either the OSC or GSC scores were low, the other's contribution to safety behavior became stronger. These findings suggest that OSC and GSC may function in a compensatory manner and promote safe driving behavior even

National trends in safety performance of electronic health record systems in children's hospitals.

PubMed

Chaparro, Juan D; Classen, David C; Danforth, Melissa; Stockwell, David C; Longhurst, Christopher A

2017-03-01

To evaluate the safety of computerized physician order entry (CPOE) and associated clinical decision support (CDS) systems in electronic health record (EHR) systems at pediatric inpatient facilities in the US using the Leapfrog Group's pediatric CPOE evaluation tool. The Leapfrog pediatric CPOE evaluation tool, a previously validated tool to assess the ability of a CPOE system to identify orders that could potentially lead to patient harm, was used to evaluate 41 pediatric hospitals over a 2-year period. Evaluation of the last available test for each institution was performed, assessing performance overall as well as by decision support category (eg, drug-drug, dosing limits). Longitudinal analysis of test performance was also carried out to assess the impact of testing and the overall trend of CPOE performance in pediatric hospitals. Pediatric CPOE systems were able to identify 62% of potential medication errors in the test scenarios, but ranged widely from 23-91% in the institutions tested. The highest scoring categories included drug-allergy interactions, dosing limits (both daily and cumulative), and inappropriate routes of administration. We found that hospitals with longer periods since their CPOE implementation did not have better scores upon initial testing, but after initial testing there was a consistent improvement in testing scores of 4 percentage points per year. Pediatric computerized physician order entry (CPOE) systems on average are able to intercept a majority of potential medication errors, but vary widely among implementations. Prospective and repeated testing using the Leapfrog Group's evaluation tool is associated with improved ability to intercept potential medication errors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Driver hand-held mobile phone use and safety belt use.

PubMed

Eby, David W; Vivoda, Jonathon M

2003-11-01

The purposes of the study were to identify hand-held mobile phone use trends for Michigan and to compare safety belt use between users and nonusers. Mobile phone and safety belt use was investigated by a direct observation survey of drivers at intersections in Michigan. Data were weighted to calculate mobile phone use and safety belt use rates statewide. The study showed 2.7% of Michigan drivers were using a mobile phone at any given daylight time. Safety belt use of current mobile phone users was significantly lower than those not using mobile phones.

Effect of accuracy of wind power prediction on power system operator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlueter, R. A.; Sigari, G.; Costi, T.

1985-01-01

This research project proposed a modified unit commitment that schedules connection and disconnection of generating units in response to load. A modified generation control is also proposed that controls steam units under automatic generation control, fast responding diesels, gas turbines and hydro units under a feedforward control, and wind turbine array output under a closed loop array control. This modified generation control and unit commitment require prediction of trend wind power variation one hour ahead and the prediction of error in this trend wind power prediction one half hour ahead. An improved meter for predicting trend wind speed variation is developed. Methods for accurately simulating the wind array power from a limited number of wind speed prediction records was developed. Finally, two methods for predicting the error in the trend wind power prediction were developed. This research provides a foundation for testing and evaluating the modified unit commitment and generation control that was developed to maintain operating reliability at a greatly reduced overall production cost for utilities with wind generation capacity.

Safety compliance and safety climate: A repeated cross-sectional study in the oil and gas industry.

PubMed

Kvalheim, Sverre A; Dahl, Øyvind

2016-12-01

Violations of safety rules and procedures are commonly identified as a causal factor in accidents in the oil and gas industry. Extensive knowledge on effective management practices related to improved compliance with safety procedures is therefore needed. Previous studies of the causal relationship between safety climate and safety compliance demonstrate that the propensity to act in accordance with prevailing rules and procedures is influenced to a large degree by workers' safety climate. Commonly, the climate measures employed differ from one study to another and identical measures of safety climate are seldom tested repeatedly over extended periods of time. This research gap is addressed in the present study. The study is based on a survey conducted four times among sharp-end workers of the Norwegian oil and gas industry (N=31,350). This is done by performing multiple tests (regression analysis) over a period of 7years of the causal relationship between safety climate and safety compliance. The safety climate measure employed is identical across the 7-year period. Taking all periods together, the employed safety climate model explained roughly 27% of the variance in safety compliance. The causal relationship was found to be stable across the period, thereby increasing the reliability and the predictive validity of the factor structure. The safety climate factor that had the most powerful effect on safety compliance was work pressure. The factor structure employed shows high predictive validity and should therefore be relevant to organizations seeking to improve safety in the petroleum sector. The findings should also be relevant to other high-hazard industries where safety rules and procedures constitute a central part of the approach to managing safety. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

The Safety Attitudes of Senior Managers in the Chinese Coal Industry

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jiangshi; Chen, Na; Fu, Gui; Yan, Mingwei; Kim, Young-Chan

2016-01-01

Introduction: Senior managers’ attitudes towards safety are very important regarding the safety practices in an organization. The study is to describe the current situation of senior managers′ attitudes towards safety in the Chinese coal industry. Method: We evaluated the changing trends as well as the reasons for these changes in the Chinese coal industry in 2009 and in 2014 with 168 senior manager samples from large Chinese state-owned coal enterprises. Evaluations of 15 safety concepts were performed by means of a questionnaire. Results and Conclusions: Results indicate that, in 2014, three concepts were at a very high level (mean > 4.5), and six were at a relatively high level (4.5 > mean > 4.0). Analyses of changing trends revealed that nine concepts improved significantly, while four greatly declined in 2014 compared to those in 2009. The data reported here suggest that the reasons for the significant improvement with respect to the nine concepts include the improvement in social and legal environments, the improvement of the culture of social safety, workers′ safety demands being met, and scientific and technical advances in the coal industry. The decline of the four concepts seemed to be caused by a poor awareness of managers in the coal industry that safety creates economic benefits, insufficient information on safety, inadequate attention to the development of a safety culture and safety management methods, and safety organizations and workers′ unions not playing their role effectively. Practical Applications: We therefore recommend strengthening the evidence that safety creates economic benefits, providing incentives for employees to encourage their participation in safety management, and paying more attention to the prevention of accidents in coal mines via safety organizations and unions. These results can provide guidelines for workers, industrialists, and government regarding occupational safety in the whole coal industry. PMID:27869654

The Safety Attitudes of Senior Managers in the Chinese Coal Industry.

PubMed

Zhang, Jiangshi; Chen, Na; Fu, Gui; Yan, Mingwei; Kim, Young-Chan

2016-11-17

Introduction: Senior managers' attitudes towards safety are very important regarding the safety practices in an organization. The study is to describe the current situation of senior managers' attitudes towards safety in the Chinese coal industry. Method : We evaluated the changing trends as well as the reasons for these changes in the Chinese coal industry in 2009 and in 2014 with 168 senior manager samples from large Chinese state-owned coal enterprises. Evaluations of 15 safety concepts were performed by means of a questionnaire. Results and Conclusions : Results indicate that, in 2014, three concepts were at a very high level (mean > 4.5), and six were at a relatively high level (4.5 > mean > 4.0). Analyses of changing trends revealed that nine concepts improved significantly, while four greatly declined in 2014 compared to those in 2009. The data reported here suggest that the reasons for the significant improvement with respect to the nine concepts include the improvement in social and legal environments, the improvement of the culture of social safety, workers' safety demands being met, and scientific and technical advances in the coal industry. The decline of the four concepts seemed to be caused by a poor awareness of managers in the coal industry that safety creates economic benefits, insufficient information on safety, inadequate attention to the development of a safety culture and safety management methods, and safety organizations and workers' unions not playing their role effectively. Practical Applications : We therefore recommend strengthening the evidence that safety creates economic benefits, providing incentives for employees to encourage their participation in safety management, and paying more attention to the prevention of accidents in coal mines via safety organizations and unions. These results can provide guidelines for workers, industrialists, and government regarding occupational safety in the whole coal industry.

Research on trend of warm-humid climate in Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Zhi; Peng, Dailiang; Wen, Jingyi; Cai, Zhanqing; Wang, Tiantian; Hu, Yuekai; Ma, Yaxin; Xu, Junfeng

2017-07-01

Central Asia is a typical arid area, which is sensitive and vulnerable part of climate changes, at the same time, Central Asia is the Silk Road Economic Belt of the core district, the warm-humid climate change will affect the production and economic development of neighboring countries. The average annual precipitation, average anneal temperature and evapotranspiration are the important indexes to weigh the climate change. In this paper, the annual precipitation, annual average temperature and evapotranspiration data of every pixel point in Central Asia are analyzed by using long-time series remote sensing data to analyze the trend of warm and humid conditions. Finally, using the model to analyzed the distribution of warm-dry trend, the warm-wet trend, the cold-dry trend and the cold-wet trend in Central Asia and Xinjiang area. The results showed that most of the regions of Central Asia were warm-humid and warm-dry trends, but only a small number of regions showed warm-dry and cold-dry trends. It is of great significance to study the climatic change discipline and guarantee the ecological safety and improve the ability to cope with climate change in the region. It also provide scientific basis for the formulation of regional climate change program. The first section in your paper

The business case for patient safety.

PubMed

Hwang, Raymond W; Herndon, James H

2007-04-01

Recent trends have focused attention on improving patient safety in the United States healthcare system. Lapses in patient safety create undue, often preventable, morbidity. These include adverse drug events, adverse surgical events and nosocomial infections. From an organizational perspective, these events are both inefficient and expensive. Many safe practices and quality enhancing improvements, such as computer provider order entry, proper infection surveillance, telemedicine intensive care, and registered nurse staffing are in fact cost-effective. However, in order to fully achieve higher quality, better adverse event reporting and a culture of safety must first be developed. Increased provider recognition, models of success, public awareness and consumer demand are propelling improvements. As we will outline in this review of the current literature, the business case for patient safety is a compelling one, offering substantial economic incentives for achieving the necessary goal of improved patient outcomes.

A study of Michigan safety belt use prior to implementation of standard enforcement

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-02-01

Reported here are the results of a direct observation survey of safety belt use conducted in January 2000 to provide a baseline rate from which to measure safety belt use trends following the implementation of standard enforcement in Michigan. In thi...

Safety and capacity evaluation for interstates in Kentucky.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-04-01

This analysis and evaluation was directed toward assessing safety and capacity issues on interstates in Kentucky and, particularly, the manner in which commercial vehicle traffic affects these issues. Analyses was undertaken to show past trends and p...

Co-Prescription Trends in a Large Cohort of Subjects Predict Substantial Drug-Drug Interactions

PubMed Central

Sutherland, Jeffrey J.; Daly, Thomas M.; Liu, Xiong; Goldstein, Keith; Johnston, Joseph A.; Ryan, Timothy P.

2015-01-01

Pharmaceutical prescribing and drug-drug interaction data underlie recommendations on drug combinations that should be avoided or closely monitored by prescribers. Because the number of patients taking multiple medications is increasing, a comprehensive view of prescribing patterns in patients is important to better assess real world pharmaceutical response and evaluate the potential for multi-drug interactions. We obtained self-reported prescription data from NHANES surveys between 1999 and 2010, and confirm the previously reported finding of increasing drug use in the elderly. We studied co-prescription drug trends by focusing on the 2009-2010 survey, which contains prescription data on 690 drugs used by 10,537 subjects. We found that medication profiles were unique for individuals aged 65 years or more, with ≥98 unique drug regimens encountered per 100 subjects taking 3 or more medications. When drugs were viewed by therapeutic class, it was found that the most commonly prescribed drugs were not the most commonly co-prescribed drugs for any of the 16 drug classes investigated. We cross-referenced these medication lists with drug interaction data from Drugs.com to evaluate the potential for drug interactions. The number of drug alerts rose proportionally with the number of co-prescribed medications, rising from 3.3 alerts for individuals prescribed 5 medications to 11.7 alerts for individuals prescribed 10 medications. We found 22% of elderly subjects taking both a substrate and inhibitor of a given cytochrome P450 enzyme, and 4% taking multiple inhibitors of the same enzyme simultaneously. By examining drug pairs prescribed in 0.1% of the population or more, we found low agreement between co-prescription rate and co-discussion in the literature. These data show that prescribing trends in treatment could drive a large extent of individual variability in drug response, and that current pairwise approaches to assessing drug-drug interactions may be inadequate for

Educating Veterinary Students in Food Safety.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Genigeorgis, Constantin A.; And Others

1980-01-01

A survey of domestic and foreign schools of veterinary medicine is analyzed, revealing a general trend toward deemphasis and/or loss of identity in teaching food safety and regulated veterinary public health subjects. It is suggested that minimal standards need to be set for curricula of U.S. schools. (Author/MLW)

Trends In Susceptibility To Single-Event Upset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nichols, Donald K.; Price, William E.; Kolasinski, Wojciech A.; Koga, Rukotaro; Waskiewicz, Alvin E.; Pickel, James C.; Blandford, James T.

1989-01-01

Report provides nearly comprehensive body of data on single-event upsets due to irradiation by heavy ions. Combines new test data and previously published data from governmental and industrial laboratories. Clear trends emerge from data useful in predicting future performances of devices.

The Influence of Individual and Team Cognitive Ability on Operators’ Task and Safety Performance: A Multilevel Field Study in Nuclear Power Plants

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jingyu; Li, Yongjuan; Wu, Changxu

2013-01-01

While much research has investigated the predictors of operators’ performance such as personality, attitudes and motivation in high-risk industries, its cognitive antecedents and boundary conditions have not been fully investigated. Based on a multilevel investigation of 312 nuclear power plant main control room operators from 50 shift teams, the present study investigated how general mental ability (GMA) at both individual and team level can influence task and safety performance. At the individual level, operators’ GMA was predictive of their task and safety performance and this trend became more significant as they accumulated more experience. At the team level, we found team GMA had positive influences on all three performance criteria. However, we also found a “big-fish-little-pond” effect insofar as team GMA had a relatively smaller effect and inhibited the contribution of individual GMA to workers’ extra-role behaviors (safety participation) compared to its clear beneficial influence on in-role behaviors (task performance and safety compliance). The possible mechanisms related to learning and social comparison processes are discussed. PMID:24391964

Cardiac safety strategies. 25-26 October 2005, the Radisson SAS Hotel, Nice, France.

PubMed

Hanton, Gilles; Tilbury, Lorraine

2006-03-01

This meeting was organised by IIR Life Sciences. It was chaired by Brian Guth, (head of General Pharmacology at Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma) and brought together scientists and clinicians from the pharmaceutical industry, university and regulatory agencies. The meeting presented emerging trends in cardiac safety, including its regulatory context pertaining to ICH S7A, S7B and E14. ICH S7A and S7B highlight the importance of the hERG test and telemetric studies in non-rodents. ICH E14 describes the clinical 'thorough QT study' that is required by the FDA for any new drug. Marked physiological variability in QT interval over time can be observed, partly as a result of fluctuation in autonomic tone. Beat-to-beat QT variability and T-wave morphology should be considered as a part of an integrated estimate of proarrhythmic risk. A case study illustrated the predictivity of preclinical data for proarrhythmic risk in humans, showing the importance of evaluating QT effects in patients to establish a safety margin.

Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies.

PubMed

WallisDeVries, Michiel F; Baxter, Wendy; Van Vliet, Arnold J H

2011-10-01

Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change.

Efficacy, safety, predictability, aberrations and corneal biomechnical parameters after SMILE and FLEx: Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ma, Jing; Cao, Nan-Jue; Xia, Li-Kun

2016-01-01

To identify possible differences of efficacy, safety, predictability, higher-order aberrations and corneal biomechnical parameters after small-incision lenticule extraction (SMILE) and femtosecond lenticule extraction (FLEx). A systematic literature retrieval was conducted in Medline, Embase and the Cochrane Library, up to October, 2015. The included studies were subject to a Meta-analysis. Comparison between SMILE and FLEx was measured as pooled odds ratio (OR) or weighted mean differences (WMD). Of 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to analyze data. A total of seven studies were included. Firstly, there were no differences in uncorrected distance visual acuity (UDVA) 20/20 or better (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 0.69 to 2.69; P=0.37) and logMAR UDVA (WMD, -0.02; 95% CI, -0.05 to 0.01; P=0.17) after SMILE versus FLEx. We found no differences in corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA) unchanged (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.46 to 2.11; P=0.97) and logMAR CDVA (WMD, -0.00; 95% CI, -0.01 to 0.01; P=0.90) either. Secondly, we found no differences in refraction within ±1.00 D (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.13 to 7.28; P=0.99) and ±0.50 D (OR, 1.62; 95% CI, 0.62 to 4.28; P=0.33) of target postoperatively. Thirdly, for higher-order aberrations, we found no differences in the total higher-order aberrations (WMD, -0.04; 95% CI, -0.09 to 0.01; P=0.14), coma (WMD, -0.04; 95% CI, -0.09 to 0.01; P=0.11), spherical (WMD, 0.01; 95% CI, -0.02 to 0.03; P=0.60) and trefoil (WMD, -0.00; 95% CI, -0.04 to 0.03; P=0.76). Furthermore, for corneal biomechanical parameters, we also found no differences (WMD, 0.08; 95% CI, -0.17 to 0.33; P=0.54) after SMILE versus FLEx. There are no statistically differences in efficacy, safety, predictability, higher-order aberrations and corneal biomechnical parameters postoperative between SMILE and FLEx.

Disentangling the roles of safety climate and safety culture: Multi-level effects on the relationship between supervisor enforcement and safety compliance.

PubMed

Petitta, Laura; Probst, Tahira M; Barbaranelli, Claudio; Ghezzi, Valerio

2017-02-01

Despite increasing attention to contextual effects on the relationship between supervisor enforcement and employee safety compliance, no study has yet explored the conjoint influence exerted simultaneously by organizational safety climate and safety culture. The present study seeks to address this literature shortcoming. We first begin by briefly discussing the theoretical distinctions between safety climate and culture and the rationale for examining these together. Next, using survey data collected from 1342 employees in 32 Italian organizations, we found that employee-level supervisor enforcement, organizational-level safety climate, and autocratic, bureaucratic, and technocratic safety culture dimensions all predicted individual-level safety compliance behaviors. However, the cross-level moderating effect of safety climate was bounded by certain safety culture dimensions, such that safety climate moderated the supervisor enforcement-compliance relationship only under the clan-patronage culture dimension. Additionally, the autocratic and bureaucratic culture dimensions attenuated the relationship between supervisor enforcement and compliance. Finally, when testing the effects of technocratic safety culture and cooperative safety culture, neither safety culture nor climate moderated the relationship between supervisor enforcement and safety compliance. The results suggest a complex relationship between organizational safety culture and safety climate, indicating that organizations with particular safety cultures may be more likely to develop more (or less) positive safety climates. Moreover, employee safety compliance is a function of supervisor safety leadership, as well as the safety climate and safety culture dimensions prevalent within the organization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Residential aged care in Auckland, New Zealand 1988-2008: do real trends over time match predictions?

PubMed

Broad, Joanna B; Boyd, Michal; Kerse, Ngaire; Whitehead, Noeline; Chelimo, Carol; Lay-Yee, Roy; von Randow, Martin; Foster, Susan; Connolly, Martin J

2011-07-01

in Auckland, New Zealand in 1988, 7.7% of those aged over 65 years lived in licenced residential aged care. Age-specific rates approximately doubled for each 5-year age group after the age of 65 years. Even with changes in policies and market forces since 1988, population increases are forecast to drive large growth in demand. This study shows previously unrecognised 20-year trends in rates of care in a geographically defined population. four cross-sectional surveys of all facilities (rest homes and hospitals) licenced for long-term care of older people were conducted in Auckland, New Zealand in 1988, 1993, 1998 and 2008. Facility staff completed survey forms for each resident. Numbers of licenced and occupied beds and trends in age-specific and age-standardised rates in residential aged care are reported. over the 20-year period, Auckland's population aged over 65 years increased by 43% (from 91,000 to 130,000) but actual numbers in care reduced slightly. Among those aged over 65 years, the proportion living in care facilities reduced from 1 in 13 to 1 in 18. Age-standardised rates in rest-home level care reduced from 65 to 33 per thousand, and in hospital level care, from 29 to 23 per thousand. Had rates remained stable, over 13,200 people, 74% more than observed, would have been in care in 2008. growth predicted in the residential aged care sector is not yet evident. The introduction of standardised needs assessments before entry, increased availability of home-based services, and growth in retirement villages may have led to reduced utilisation.

Improving construction site safety through leader-based verbal safety communication.

PubMed

Kines, Pete; Andersen, Lars P S; Spangenberg, Soren; Mikkelsen, Kim L; Dyreborg, Johnny; Zohar, Dov

2010-10-01

The construction industry is one of the most injury-prone industries, in which production is usually prioritized over safety in daily on-site communication. Workers have an informal and oral culture of risk, in which safety is rarely openly expressed. This paper tests the effect of increasing leader-based on-site verbal safety communication on the level of safety and safety climate at construction sites. A pre-post intervention-control design with five construction work gangs is carried out. Foremen in two intervention groups are coached and given bi-weekly feedback about their daily verbal safety communications with their workers. Foremen-worker verbal safety exchanges (experience sampling method, n=1,693 interviews), construction site safety level (correct vs. incorrect, n=22,077 single observations), and safety climate (seven dimensions, n=105 questionnaires) are measured over a period of up to 42 weeks. Baseline measurements in the two intervention and three control groups reveal that foremen speak with their workers several times a day. Workers perceive safety as part of their verbal communication with their foremen in only 6-16% of exchanges, and the levels of safety at the sites range from 70-87% (correct observations). Measurements from baseline to follow-up in the two intervention groups reveal that safety communication between foremen and workers increases significantly in one of the groups (factor 7.1 increase), and a significant yet smaller increase is found when the two intervention groups are combined (factor 4.6). Significant increases in the level of safety are seen in both intervention groups (7% and 12% increases, respectively), particularly in regards to 'access ways' and 'railings and coverings' (39% and 84% increases, respectively). Increases in safety climate are seen in only one of the intervention groups with respect to their 'attention to safety.' No significant trend changes are seen in the three control groups on any of the three measures

Predictive time-series modeling using artificial neural networks for Linac beam symmetry: an empirical study.

PubMed

Li, Qiongge; Chan, Maria F

2017-01-01

Over half of cancer patients receive radiotherapy (RT) as partial or full cancer treatment. Daily quality assurance (QA) of RT in cancer treatment closely monitors the performance of the medical linear accelerator (Linac) and is critical for continuous improvement of patient safety and quality of care. Cumulative longitudinal QA measurements are valuable for understanding the behavior of the Linac and allow physicists to identify trends in the output and take preventive actions. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time-series prediction modeling techniques were both applied to 5-year daily Linac QA data. Verification tests and other evaluations were then performed for all models. Preliminary results showed that ANN time-series predictive modeling has more advantages over ARMA techniques for accurate and effective applicability in the dosimetry and QA field. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Estimation of trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

The application of statistical methods to recorded ozone measurements. The effects of a long term depletion of ozone at magnitudes predicted by the NAS is harmful to most forms of life. Empirical prewhitening filters the derivation of which is independent of the underlying physical mechanisms were analyzed. Statistical analysis performs a checks and balances effort. Time series filters variations into systematic and random parts, errors are uncorrelated, and significant phase lag dependencies are identified. The use of time series modeling to enhance the capability of detecting trends is discussed.

21st Century Trends in the Potential for Ozone Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2009-05-01

We find robust trends in the area where Antarctic stratospheric temperatures are below the threshold for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. In late winter (September-October-November), cold area trends are consistent with the respective trends in equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), i.e. negative cold area trends in 'realistic future' simulations where EESC decreases and the ozone layer recovers. In the early winter (April through June), regardless of EESC scenario, we find an increasing cold area trend in all simulations; multiple linear regression analysis shows that this early winter cooling trend is associated with the predicted increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. We compare the seasonality of the potential for Antarctic ozone depletion in two versions of the GEOS CCM and assess the impact of the above-mentioned cold area trends on polar stratospheric chemistry.

The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

2012-01-01

Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

Road death trend in the United States: implied effects of prevention.

PubMed

Robertson, Leon

2018-05-01

This study estimates road deaths prevented by U.S. vehicle safety regulations, state laws, and other efforts based on comparison of actual deaths to those predicted from temperature and precipitation effects on exposure, migration to warmer areas, population growth, median age of the population, and vehicle mix. Logistic regression of risk factors predictive of road deaths in 1961, prior to the adoption of federal vehicle safety regulations, state behavioral change laws, and other preventive efforts were used to predict deaths in subsequent years given the changing prevalence of the risk factors from 1962 to 2015. The included risk factors are strong predictors of road death risk. Without the preventive efforts, an additional 5.8 million road deaths would likely have occurred in the U.S. from the initiation of federal safety standards for new vehicles in 1968 through 2015.

Pedestrian facilities users guide : providing safety and mobility

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-03-01

The Guide provides information on how to identify safety and mobility needs of pedestrians within roadway rights-of-way. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the creation of a walkable environment. Chepter 2 describes basic pedestrian crash trends and t...

Safety of gene therapy: new insights to a puzzling case.

PubMed

Rothe, Michael; Schambach, Axel; Biasco, Luca

2014-01-01

Over the last few years, the transfer of therapeutic genes via gammaretro- or lentiviral vector systems has proven its virtue as an alternative treatment for a series of genetic disorders. The number of approved phase I/II clinical trials, especially for rare diseases, is steadily increasing, but the overall hurdles to become a broadly acceptable therapy remain numerous. The efforts by clinicians and basic scientists have tremendously improved the knowledge available about feasibility and biosafety of gene therapy. Nonetheless, despite the generation of a plethora of clinical and preclinical safety data, we still lack sufficiently powerful assays to predictively assess the exact levels of toxicity that might be observed in any given clinical gene therapy. Insertional mutagenesis is one of the major concerns when using integrating vectors for permanent cell modification, and the occurrence of adverse events related to genotoxicity, in early gene therapy trials, has refrained the field of gene therapy from emerging further. In this review, we provided a comprehensive overview on the basic principles and potential co-factors concurring in the generation of adverse events reported in gene therapy clinical trials using integrating vectors. Additionally, we summarized the available systems to assess genotoxicity at the preclinical level and we shed light on the issues affecting the predictive value of these assays when translating their results into the clinical arena. In the last section of the review we briefly touched on the future trends and how they could increase the safety of gene therapy employing integrating vector technology to take it to the next level.

Simulation analysis of adaptive cruise prediction control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Li; Cui, Sheng Min

2017-09-01

Predictive control is suitable for multi-variable and multi-constraint system control.In order to discuss the effect of predictive control on the vehicle longitudinal motion, this paper establishes the expected spacing model by combining variable pitch spacing and the of safety distance strategy. The model predictive control theory and the optimization method based on secondary planning are designed to obtain and track the best expected acceleration trajectory quickly. Simulation models are established including predictive and adaptive fuzzy control. Simulation results show that predictive control can realize the basic function of the system while ensuring the safety. The application of predictive and fuzzy adaptive algorithm in cruise condition indicates that the predictive control effect is better.

Global Crop Yields, Climatic Trends and Technology Enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, E.; Devineni, N.; Khanbilvardi, R.; Kogan, F.

2016-12-01

During the last decades the global agricultural production has soared up and technology enhancement is still making positive contribution to yield growth. However, continuing population, water crisis, deforestation and climate change threaten the global food security. Attempts to predict food availability in the future around the world can be partly understood from the impact of changes to date. A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the country scale using climate covariates and technology trend is presented in this paper. The structural relationships between average yield and climate attributes as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All countries are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling and/or clustering to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Geopotential height (GPH), historical CO2 level and time-trend as a relatively reliable approximation of technology measurement are used as predictors to estimate annual agricultural crop yields for each country from 1961 to 2007. Results show that these indicators can explain the variability in historical crop yields for most of the countries and the model performs well under out-of-sample verifications.

Effects of MHRA drug safety advice on time trends in prescribing volume and indices of clinical toxicity for quinine

PubMed Central

Acheampong, Paul; Cooper, Gill; Khazaeli, Behshad; Lupton, David J; White, Sue; May, Margaret T; Thomas, Simon H L

2013-01-01

Aims To ascertain the effects of the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency's (MHRA) safety update in June 2010 on the volume of prescribing of quinine and on indices of quinine toxicity. Methods We analysed quarterly primary care total and quinine prescribing data for England and quinine prescribing volume for individual Primary Care Trusts in the North East of England from 2007/8 to 2011/12 obtained from the ePACT.net database. We also analysed quinine toxicity enquiries to the National Poisons Information Service (NPIS) via Toxbase® and by telephone between 2004/5 and 2011/12. Joinpoint regression and Pearson's correlation tests were used to ascertain changes in trends in prescribing and indices of toxicity and associations between prescribing and indices of toxicity, respectively. Results Total prescribing continued to increase, but annual growth in quinine prescribing in England declined from 6.0 to −0.6% following the MHRA update [difference −0.04 (95% confidence interval −0.07 to −0.01) quinine prescriptions per 100 patients per quarter, P = 0.0111]. Much larger reductions were observed in Primary Care Trusts that introduced comprehensive prescribing reviews. The previously increasing trend in Toxbase® quinine searches was reversed [difference −19.76 (95% confidence interval −39.28 to −9.20) user sessions per quarter, P = 0.0575]. Telephone enquiries to NPIS for quinine have declined, with stabilization of the proportion of moderate to severe cases of quinine poisoning since the update. Conclusions The MHRA advice was followed by limited reductions in the growth in quinine prescribing and in indicators of quinine overdose and toxicity. Quinine prescribing, however, remains common, and further efforts are needed to reduce availability and use. PMID:23594200

Std trends in chengalpattu hospital.

PubMed

Krishnamurthy, V R; Ramachandran, V

1996-01-01

A retrospective data analysis was carried out to find the trends in frequency and distribution of different STDs at Chengalpattu during 1988-1994. Of the 4549 patients who attended the clinic 3621 (79.6%) were males and 928 (20.4%) were females. The commonest STD was Chancroid (24.4%) in men and Syphillis (29%) in women. Balanoposthitis (11.4%) ranked third among STDs in males. Though the STD attendance showed a declining trend, most diseases showed a constant distribution. The percentage composition of secondary and latent syphillis, Genital Warts, Genital Herpes and the Non-Venereal group showed an increased composition in recent years. Primary syphillis in females showed a definite declining trend. The HIV sero-positive detection rate was 2.06%. Of the 1116 patients screened for HIV antibody, 23 patients were detected sero-positive. Time Series Regression Analysis was used to predict the number of patients who would attend the STD clinic with various STDs in 1995 and 1996 to help in the understanding of the disease load and pattern in future, in resources management and in developing and evaluating preventive measures.

Livestock production systems in developing countries: status, drivers, trends.

PubMed

Steinfeld, H; Wassenaar, T; Jutzi, S

2006-08-01

This paper describes and assesses the current status of livestock production systems, the drivers of global livestock production, and the major trends in such production. The analysis covers the six major livestock species: cattle and buffaloes, goats and sheep, pigs and chickens. Global drivers of the livestock sector include economic growth and income, demographic and land use changes, dietary adjustments and technological change. The rate of change and direction of livestock development vary greatly among world regions, with Asia showing the most rapid growth and structural change. The paper also examines system dynamics, by analysing the ways livestock production has adjusted to external forces. A brief discussion of how these trends link to food safety concludes the paper.

Requirements for significant problem reporting and trend analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

This handbook supplements policies, requirements, and procedures of NMI 8070.3 to ensure that NASA management at each organizational level is: fully aware of trends affecting both the level of safety and the potential for mission success established for both NASA manned space programs and its supporting institutions; fully and independently informed of problems that represent significant risk to the safety of all personnel (including the general populace) and to the success of a mission or operation through a program mechanism herein defined as Significant Problem Reporting; and in full agreement with the level of elimination of these problems through the closed-loop accounting of corrective actions. The requirements of this handbook are supportive of the agency's safety, reliability, maintainability, and quality assurance (SRM&QA) program objectives and are applicable to all organizational elements of NASA connected with or supporting developmental or operational manned space program/projects (including associated payloads) and the related institutional facilities.

Another Approach to Enhance Airline Safety: Using Management Safety Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Chien-tsug; Wetmore, Michael; Przetak, Robert

2006-01-01

The ultimate goal of conducting an accident investigation is to prevent similar accidents from happening again and to make operations safer system-wide. Based on the findings extracted from the investigation, the "lesson learned" becomes a genuine part of the safety database making risk management available to safety analysts. The airline industry is no exception. In the US, the FAA has advocated the usage of the System Safety concept in enhancing safety since 2000. Yet, in today s usage of System Safety, the airline industry mainly focuses on risk management, which is a reactive process of the System Safety discipline. In order to extend the merit of System Safety and to prevent accidents beforehand, a specific System Safety tool needs to be applied; so a model of hazard prediction can be formed. To do so, the authors initiated this study by reviewing 189 final accident reports from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) covering FAR Part 121 scheduled operations. The discovered accident causes (direct hazards) were categorized into 10 groups Flight Operations, Ground Crew, Turbulence, Maintenance, Foreign Object Damage (FOD), Flight Attendant, Air Traffic Control, Manufacturer, Passenger, and Federal Aviation Administration. These direct hazards were associated with 36 root factors prepared for an error-elimination model using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), a leading tool for System Safety experts. An FTA block-diagram model was created, followed by a probability simulation of accidents. Five case studies and reports were provided in order to fully demonstrate the usefulness of System Safety tools in promoting airline safety.

Safety on Earth From MARSS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

ENSCO, Inc., developed the Meteorological and Atmospheric Real-time Safety Support (MARSS) system for real-time assessment of meteorological data displays and toxic material spills. MARSS also provides mock scenarios to guide preparations for emergencies involving meteorological hazards and toxic substances. Developed under a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract with Kennedy Space Center, MARSS was designed to measure how safe NASA and Air Force range safety personnel are while performing weather sensitive operations around launch pads. The system augments a ground operations safety plan that limits certain work operations to very specific weather conditions. It also provides toxic hazard prediction models to assist safety managers in planning for and reacting to releases of hazardous materials. MARSS can be used in agricultural, industrial, and scientific applications that require weather forecasts and predictions of toxic smoke movement. MARSS is also designed to protect urban areas, seaports, rail facilities, and airports from airborne releases of hazardous chemical substances. The system can integrate with local facility protection units and provide instant threat detection and assessment data that is reportable for local and national distribution.

Investigation of criticality safety control infraction data at a nuclear facility

DOE PAGES

Cournoyer, Michael E.; Merhege, James F.; Costa, David A.; ...

2014-10-27

Chemical and metallurgical operations involving plutonium and other nuclear materials account for most activities performed at the LANL's Plutonium Facility (PF-4). The presence of large quantities of fissile materials in numerous forms at PF-4 makes it necessary to maintain an active criticality safety program. The LANL Nuclear Criticality Safety (NCS) Program provides guidance to enable efficient operations while ensuring prevention of criticality accidents in the handling, storing, processing and transportation of fissionable material at PF-4. In order to achieve and sustain lower criticality safety control infraction (CSCI) rates, PF-4 operations are continuously improved, through the use of Lean Manufacturing andmore » Six Sigma (LSS) business practices. Employing LSS, statistically significant variations (trends) can be identified in PF-4 CSCI reports. In this study, trends have been identified in the NCS Program using the NCS Database. An output metric has been developed that measures ADPSM Management progress toward meeting its NCS objectives and goals. Using a Pareto Chart, the primary CSCI attributes have been determined in order of those requiring the most management support. Data generated from analysis of CSCI data help identify and reduce number of corresponding attributes. In-field monitoring of CSCI's contribute to an organization's scientific and technological excellence by providing information that can be used to improve criticality safety operation safety. This increases technical knowledge and augments operational safety.« less

Analysis of Aviation Safety Reporting System Incident Data Associated with the Technical Challenges of the System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technologies Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Withrow, Colleen A.; Reveley, Mary S.

2015-01-01

The Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technologies (SSAT) Project asked the AvSP Systems and Portfolio Analysis Team to identify SSAT-related trends. SSAT had four technical challenges: advance safety assurance to enable deployment of NextGen systems; automated discovery of precursors to aviation safety incidents; increasing safety of human-automation interaction by incorporating human performance, and prognostic algorithm design for safety assurance. This report reviews incident data from the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) for system-component-failure- or-malfunction- (SCFM-) related and human-factor-related incidents for commercial or cargo air carriers (Part 121), commuter airlines (Part 135), and general aviation (Part 91). The data was analyzed by Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) part, phase of flight, SCFM category, human factor category, and a variety of anomalies and results. There were 38 894 SCFM-related incidents and 83 478 human-factorrelated incidents analyzed between January 1993 and April 2011.

Transformational leadership, intrinsic motivation, and trust: a moderated-mediated model of workplace safety.

PubMed

Conchie, Stacey M

2013-04-01

Two studies examine the role of motivation and trust in the relationship between safety-specific transformational leadership and employees' safety behavior. Study 1 tested the prediction that intrinsic and identified regulation motivations mediate the relationship between safety-specific transformational leadership and employees' safety behaviors. Study 2 further explored this relationship by testing the prediction that the mediating role of intrinsic motivation is dependent on employees' level of trust in their leader. Survey data from the U.K. construction industry supported both predictions. However, the mediating role of intrinsic motivation was found only for challenge safety citizenship behaviors (i.e., voice) and not for affiliative safety citizenship behaviors (i.e., helping). These findings suggest that employees' intrinsic motivation is important to the effectiveness of leaders' efforts to promote some but not all forms of safety behavior.

Trend analysis of Arctic sea ice extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, M. E.; Barbosa, S. M.; Antunes, Luís; Rocha, Conceição

2009-04-01

The extent of Arctic sea ice is a fundamental parameter of Arctic climate variability. In the context of climate change, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is a particularly useful indicator of recent changes in the Arctic environment. Climate models are in near universal agreement that Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century as a consequence of global warming and many studies predict a ice free Arctic as soon as 2012. Time series of satellite passive microwave observations allow to assess the temporal changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Much of the analysis of the ice extent time series, as in most climate studies from observational data, have been focussed on the computation of deterministic linear trends by ordinary least squares. However, many different processes, including deterministic, unit root and long-range dependent processes can engender trend like features in a time series. Several parametric tests have been developed, mainly in econometrics, to discriminate between stationarity (no trend), deterministic trend and stochastic trends. Here, these tests are applied in the trend analysis of the sea ice extent time series available at National Snow and Ice Data Center. The parametric stationary tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and the KPSS, do not support an overall deterministic trend in the time series of Arctic sea ice extent. Therefore, alternative parametrizations such as long-range dependence should be considered for characterising long-term Arctic sea ice variability.

Development of the SaFETy Score: A Clinical Screening Tool for Predicting Future Firearm Violence Risk

PubMed Central

Goldstick, Jason E.; Carter, Patrick M.; Walton, Maureen A.; Dahlberg, Linda L.; Sumner, Steven A.; Zimmerman, Marc A.; Cunningham, Rebecca M.

2017-01-01

Background Interpersonal firearm violence among youth is a substantial public health problem, and emergency department (ED) physicians require a clinical screening tool to identify high-risk youth. Objective To derive a clinically feasible risk index for firearm violence. Design 24-month prospective cohort study. Setting Urban, level 1 ED. Participants Substance-using youths, aged 14 to 24 years, seeking ED care for an assault-related injury and a proportionately sampled group of non–assault-injured youth enrolled from September 2009 through December 2011. Measurements Firearm violence (victimization/perpetration) and validated questionnaire items. Results A total of 599 youths were enrolled, and presence/absence of future firearm violence during follow-up could be ascertained in 483 (52.2% were positive). The sample was randomly split into training (75%) and post–score-construction validation (25%) sets. Using elastic-net penalized logistic regression, 118 baseline predictors were jointly analyzed; the most predictive variables fell predominantly into 4 domains: violence victimization, community exposure, peer influences, and fighting. By selection of 1 item from each domain, the 10-point SaFETy (Serious fighting, Friend weapon carrying, community Environment, and firearm Threats) score was derived. SaFETy was associated with firearm violence in the validation set (odds ratio [OR], 1.47 [95% CI, 1.23 to 1.79]); this association remained (OR, 1.44 [CI, 1.20 to 1.76]) after adjustment for reason for ED visit. In 5 risk strata observed in the training data, firearm violence rates in the validation set were 18.2% (2 of 11), 40.0% (18 of 45), 55.8% (24 of 43), 81.3% (13 of 16), and 100.0% (6 of 6), respectively. Limitations The study was conducted in a single ED and involved substance-using youths. SaFETy was not externally validated. Conclusion The SaFETy score is a 4-item score based on clinically feasible questionnaire items and is associated with firearm

A holistic approach to food safety risks: Food fraud as an example.

PubMed

Marvin, Hans J P; Bouzembrak, Yamine; Janssen, Esmée M; van der Fels-Klerx, H J; van Asselt, Esther D; Kleter, Gijs A

2016-11-01

Production of sufficient, safe and nutritious food is a global challenge faced by the actors operating in the food production chain. The performance of food-producing systems from farm to fork is directly and indirectly influenced by major changes in, for example, climate, demographics, and the economy. Many of these major trends will also drive the development of food safety risks and thus will have an effect on human health, local societies and economies. It is advocated that a holistic or system approach taking into account the influence of multiple "drivers" on food safety is followed to predict the increased likelihood of occurrence of safety incidents so as to be better prepared to prevent, mitigate and manage associated risks. The value of using a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling approach for this purpose is demonstrated in this paper using food fraud as an example. Possible links between food fraud cases retrieved from the RASFF (EU) and EMA (USA) databases and features of these cases provided by both the records themselves and additional data obtained from other sources are demonstrated. The BN model was developed from 1393 food fraud cases and 15 different data sources. With this model applied to these collected data on food fraud cases, the product categories that thus showed the highest probabilities of being fraudulent were "fish and seafood" (20.6%), "meat" (13.4%) and "fruits and vegetables" (10.4%). Features of the country of origin appeared to be important factors in identifying the possible hazards associated with a product. The model had a predictive accuracy of 91.5% for the fraud type and demonstrates how expert knowledge and data can be combined within a model to assist risk managers to better understand the factors and their interrelationships. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in alcohol-impaired driving in Canada.

PubMed

Vanlaar, Ward; Robertson, Robyn; Marcoux, Kyla; Mayhew, Daniel; Brown, Steve; Boase, Paul

2012-09-01

While a general decreasing trend in the number of persons killed in a traffic crash involving a drinking driver has occurred in Canada since the 1980s, it is evident that much of this decrease occurred in the 1990s. Since 2002, less progress has been made as the number of persons killed in crashes involving drinking drivers remains high. To better understand the current situation, this paper describes trends in drinking and driving in Canada from 1998 to 2011 using multiple indicators based on data collected for the Traffic Injury Research Foundation's (TIRF) Road Safety Monitor (RSM), the National Opinion Poll on Drinking and Driving, and trends in alcohol-related crashes based on data collected for TIRF's national Fatality Database in Canada. There has been a continued and consistent decrease in the number of fatalities involving a drinking driver in Canada. This remains true when looking at the number of fatalities involving a drinking driver per 100,000 population and per 100,000 licensed drivers. This decreasing trend is also still apparent when considering the percentage of persons killed in a traffic crash in Canada involving a drinking driver although less pronounced. Data from the RSM further show that the percentage of those who reported driving after they thought they were over the legal limit has also declined. However, regardless of the apparent decreasing trend in drinking driving fatalities and behaviour, reductions have been relatively modest, and fatalities in crashes involving drivers who have consumed alcohol remain high at unacceptable levels. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trend analysis of vegetation in Louisiana's Atchafalaya river basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Neil, Calvin P.; deSteiguer, J. Edward; North, Gary W.

1978-01-01

The purpose of the study was to determine vegetation succession trends; produce a current vegetation map of the basin; and to develop a mathematical model capable of predicting vegetation changes based on hydrologic factors. A statistical relationship of forests and hydrological variables with forest succession constraints predicted forest acreage totals for 16 forest categories within 70% or better of actual values in two-thirds of the cases. Using time-lapsed photography covering 42 years, 23 categories were described. The succession trend of vegetation since 1930, by sedimentation, had been toward mixed hardwoods, except for isolated areas. Satellite MSS Band 7 imagery was used to map the current vegetation into three main categories and for assessment of acreage. Additionally, a geological anomaly was recognized on satellite imagery indication an effect on drainage and sedimentation.

Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends

PubMed Central

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Parmesan, Camille

2012-01-01

Analyses of datasets throughout the temperate midlatitude regions show a widespread tendency for species to advance their springtime phenology, consistent with warming trends over the past 20–50 y. Within these general trends toward earlier spring, however, are species that either have insignificant trends or have delayed their timing. Various explanations have been offered to explain this apparent nonresponsiveness to warming, including the influence of other abiotic cues (e.g., photoperiod) or reductions in fall/winter chilling (vernalization). Few studies, however, have explicitly attributed the historical trends of nonresponding species to any specific factor. Here, we analyzed long-term data on phenology and seasonal temperatures from 490 species on two continents and demonstrate that (i) apparent nonresponders are indeed responding to warming, but their responses to fall/winter and spring warming are opposite in sign and of similar magnitude; (ii) observed trends in first flowering date depend strongly on the magnitude of a given species’ response to fall/winter vs. spring warming; and (iii) inclusion of fall/winter temperature cues strongly improves hindcast model predictions of long-term flowering trends compared with models with spring warming only. With a few notable exceptions, climate change research has focused on the overall mean trend toward phenological advance, minimizing discussion of apparently nonresponding species. Our results illuminate an understudied source of complexity in wild species responses and support the need for models incorporating diverse environmental cues to improve predictability of community level responses to anthropogenic climate change. PMID:22615406

Self-Reported Health and Safety Awareness Improves Prediction of Level of Care Needs in Veterans Discharged From a Postacute Unit.

PubMed

Stelmokas, Julija; Bieliauskas, Linas A; Kitchen Andren, Katherine A; Hogikyan, Robert; Alexander, Neil B

2017-11-01

To evaluate the differential value of a self-reported health and safety awareness measure relative to other medical, psychosocial, and cognitive factors in predicting level of care (LOC) needs after hospital discharge. Retrospective medical record review. Community living center postacute care (CLC-PAC) unit at a Veterans Affairs hospital. A total of 175 veterans admitted to the Veterans Affairs hospital or directly to the CLC-PAC from home. Cognitive status was assessed with the Mini-Mental State Examination, Digit Span Backward subtest, Trail Making Test (Part B), and Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised. Self-report of health and safety awareness was measured with the Independent Living Scales Health and Safety (ILS-HS) subscale. Additional demographic and admission-related variables were coded, along with medical comorbidity, with the Charlson Comorbidity Index and depression using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition, Text Revision Depression Checklist. Increased level of care was collected from social work and occupational therapy notes and defined as increased assistance with activities of daily living or nursing home placement comparing prehospitalization with CLC-PAC discharge. A total of 19% (n = 34) of residents required increased LOC on CLC-PAC discharge. The ILS-HS was a significant predictor of increased LOC above and beyond age and Mini Mental Status Examination score; for each standard deviation decrease in ILS-HS, there was an increased likelihood of greater LOC (odds ratio 0. 54, 95% confidence interval 0.35-0.83). Other neuropsychological tests (memory, executive functioning) did not significantly improve the model. The inclusion of the ILS-HS to a standard cognitive screen (Mini Mental Status Examination) can improve prediction of increased LOC. Although select aspects of memory and executive functioning independently contribute to increased LOC prediction, the ILS-HS likely measures a unique aspect of cognitive

System Study: High-Pressure Safety Injection 1998-2014

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schroeder, John Alton

2015-12-01

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the high-pressure safety injection system (HPSI) at 69 U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Demand, run hours, and failure data from fiscal year 1998 through 2014 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES). The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period, while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the HPSI results.

Sediment compaction and pore pressure prediction in deepwater basin of the South China Sea: Estimation from ODP and IODP drilling well data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yangbing; Wu, Tuoyu; Sun, Jin; Zhang, Hanyu; Wang, Jiliang; Gao, Jinwei; Chen, Chuanxu

2018-02-01

Overpressure in deepwater basins not only causes serious soft sediment deformation, but also significantly affects the safety of drilling operations. Therefore, prediction of overpressure in sediments has become an important task in deepwater oil exploration and development. In this study, we analyze the drilling data from ODP Leg 184 Sites 1144, 1146, and 1148, and IODP Leg 349 Sites U1431, U1432, U1433, and U1435 to study the sediment compaction and controls in the northern South China Sea. Sedimentation rate, sediment content, distribution area, and buried depth are the factors that influence sediment compaction in the deepwater basin of the South China Sea. Among these factors, the sediment content is the most important. The fitted normal compacted coefficients and mudline porosity for an interval of 50 m shows disciplinary variation versus depth. The pore pressure predicted from different fitted results shows varying overpressure situations. The normal compaction trend from Site 1144 reflects the porosity variation trend in stable deposition basins in the northern South China Sea. The predicted pore pressure shows overpressure at Site 1144, which is attributed to compaction disequilibrium. Nevertheless, the mixed lithology column may influence the predicted over-pressure at Site 1148, which is responsible for the confusing result. Above all, we find that sediment compaction should serve as a proxy for pore pressure in the deepwater basin of the South China Sea.

Empirical Prediction of Aircraft Landing Gear Noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Golub, Robert A. (Technical Monitor); Guo, Yue-Ping

2005-01-01

This report documents a semi-empirical/semi-analytical method for landing gear noise prediction. The method is based on scaling laws of the theory of aerodynamic noise generation and correlation of these scaling laws with current available test data. The former gives the method a sound theoretical foundation and the latter quantitatively determines the relations between the parameters of the landing gear assembly and the far field noise, enabling practical predictions of aircraft landing gear noise, both for parametric trends and for absolute noise levels. The prediction model is validated by wind tunnel test data for an isolated Boeing 737 landing gear and by flight data for the Boeing 777 airplane. In both cases, the predictions agree well with data, both in parametric trends and in absolute noise levels.

The Detection of Emerging Trends Using Wikipedia Traffic Data and Context Networks.

PubMed

Kämpf, Mirko; Tessenow, Eric; Kenett, Dror Y; Kantelhardt, Jan W

2015-01-01

Can online media predict new and emerging trends, since there is a relationship between trends in society and their representation in online systems? While several recent studies have used Google Trends as the leading online information source to answer corresponding research questions, we focus on the online encyclopedia Wikipedia often used for deeper topical reading. Wikipedia grants open access to all traffic data and provides lots of additional (semantic) information in a context network besides single keywords. Specifically, we suggest and study context-normalized and time-dependent measures for a topic's importance based on page-view time series of Wikipedia articles in different languages and articles related to them by internal links. As an example, we present a study of the recently emerging Big Data market with a focus on the Hadoop ecosystem, and compare the capabilities of Wikipedia versus Google in predicting its popularity and life cycles. To support further applications, we have developed an open web platform to share results of Wikipedia analytics, providing context-rich and language-independent relevance measures for emerging trends.

The Detection of Emerging Trends Using Wikipedia Traffic Data and Context Networks

PubMed Central

Kämpf, Mirko; Tessenow, Eric; Kenett, Dror Y.; Kantelhardt, Jan W.

2015-01-01

Can online media predict new and emerging trends, since there is a relationship between trends in society and their representation in online systems? While several recent studies have used Google Trends as the leading online information source to answer corresponding research questions, we focus on the online encyclopedia Wikipedia often used for deeper topical reading. Wikipedia grants open access to all traffic data and provides lots of additional (semantic) information in a context network besides single keywords. Specifically, we suggest and study context-normalized and time-dependent measures for a topic’s importance based on page-view time series of Wikipedia articles in different languages and articles related to them by internal links. As an example, we present a study of the recently emerging Big Data market with a focus on the Hadoop ecosystem, and compare the capabilities of Wikipedia versus Google in predicting its popularity and life cycles. To support further applications, we have developed an open web platform to share results of Wikipedia analytics, providing context-rich and language-independent relevance measures for emerging trends. PMID:26720074

Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based up...

Predicting the safety and efficacy of buffer therapy to raise tumour pHe: an integrative modelling study.

PubMed

Martin, N K; Robey, I F; Gaffney, E A; Gillies, R J; Gatenby, R A; Maini, P K

2012-03-27

Clinical positron emission tomography imaging has demonstrated the vast majority of human cancers exhibit significantly increased glucose metabolism when compared with adjacent normal tissue, resulting in an acidic tumour microenvironment. Recent studies demonstrated reducing this acidity through systemic buffers significantly inhibits development and growth of metastases in mouse xenografts. We apply and extend a previously developed mathematical model of blood and tumour buffering to examine the impact of oral administration of bicarbonate buffer in mice, and the potential impact in humans. We recapitulate the experimentally observed tumour pHe effect of buffer therapy, testing a model prediction in vivo in mice. We parameterise the model to humans to determine the translational safety and efficacy, and predict patient subgroups who could have enhanced treatment response, and the most promising combination or alternative buffer therapies. The model predicts a previously unseen potentially dangerous elevation in blood pHe resulting from bicarbonate therapy in mice, which is confirmed by our in vivo experiments. Simulations predict limited efficacy of bicarbonate, especially in humans with more aggressive cancers. We predict buffer therapy would be most effectual: in elderly patients or individuals with renal impairments; in combination with proton production inhibitors (such as dichloroacetate), renal glomular filtration rate inhibitors (such as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors), or with an alternative buffer reagent possessing an optimal pK of 7.1-7.2. Our mathematical model confirms bicarbonate acts as an effective agent to raise tumour pHe, but potentially induces metabolic alkalosis at the high doses necessary for tumour pHe normalisation. We predict use in elderly patients or in combination with proton production inhibitors or buffers with a pK of 7.1-7.2 is most promising.

Predicting the safety and efficacy of buffer therapy to raise tumour pHe: an integrative modelling study

PubMed Central

Martin, N K; Robey, I F; Gaffney, E A; Gillies, R J; Gatenby, R A; Maini, P K

2012-01-01

Background: Clinical positron emission tomography imaging has demonstrated the vast majority of human cancers exhibit significantly increased glucose metabolism when compared with adjacent normal tissue, resulting in an acidic tumour microenvironment. Recent studies demonstrated reducing this acidity through systemic buffers significantly inhibits development and growth of metastases in mouse xenografts. Methods: We apply and extend a previously developed mathematical model of blood and tumour buffering to examine the impact of oral administration of bicarbonate buffer in mice, and the potential impact in humans. We recapitulate the experimentally observed tumour pHe effect of buffer therapy, testing a model prediction in vivo in mice. We parameterise the model to humans to determine the translational safety and efficacy, and predict patient subgroups who could have enhanced treatment response, and the most promising combination or alternative buffer therapies. Results: The model predicts a previously unseen potentially dangerous elevation in blood pHe resulting from bicarbonate therapy in mice, which is confirmed by our in vivo experiments. Simulations predict limited efficacy of bicarbonate, especially in humans with more aggressive cancers. We predict buffer therapy would be most effectual: in elderly patients or individuals with renal impairments; in combination with proton production inhibitors (such as dichloroacetate), renal glomular filtration rate inhibitors (such as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors), or with an alternative buffer reagent possessing an optimal pK of 7.1–7.2. Conclusion: Our mathematical model confirms bicarbonate acts as an effective agent to raise tumour pHe, but potentially induces metabolic alkalosis at the high doses necessary for tumour pHe normalisation. We predict use in elderly patients or in combination with proton production inhibitors or buffers with a pK of 7.1–7.2 is most

Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0-2009.0, solar cycles 11-23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance levels, followed by the British and, then, the Australian data. Signals consistently seen in K data from all three observatory groups can be reasonably interpreted as physically meaninginful: (1) geomagnetic activity has generally increased over the past 141 years. However, the detailed secular evolution of geomagnetic activity is not well characterized by either a linear trend nor, even, a monotonic trend. Therefore, simple, phenomenological extrapolations of past trends in solar and geomagnetic activity levels are unlikely to be useful for making quantitative predictions of future trends lasting longer than a solar cycle or so. (2) The well-known tendency for magnetic storms to occur during the declining phase of a sunspot-solar cycles is clearly seen for cycles 14-23; it is not, however, clearly seen for cycles 11-13. Therefore, in addition to an increase in geomagnetic activity, the nature of solar-terrestrial interaction has also apparently changed over the past 141 years. ?? Author(s) 2011.

Principles of Safety Pharmacology

PubMed Central

Pugsley, M K; Authier, S; Curtis, M J

2008-01-01

Safety Pharmacology is a rapidly developing discipline that uses the basic principles of pharmacology in a regulatory-driven process to generate data to inform risk/benefit assessment. The aim of Safety Pharmacology is to characterize the pharmacodynamic/pharmacokinetic (PK/PD) relationship of a drug's adverse effects using continuously evolving methodology. Unlike toxicology, Safety Pharmacology includes within its remit a regulatory requirement to predict the risk of rare lethal events. This gives Safety Pharmacology its unique character. The key issues for Safety Pharmacology are detection of an adverse effect liability, projection of the data into safety margin calculation and finally clinical safety monitoring. This article sets out to explain the drivers for Safety Pharmacology so that the wider pharmacology community is better placed to understand the discipline. It concludes with a summary of principles that may help inform future resolution of unmet needs (especially establishing model validation for accurate risk assessment). Subsequent articles in this issue of the journal address specific aspects of Safety Pharmacology to explore the issues of model choice, the burden of proof and to highlight areas of intensive activity (such as testing for drug-induced rare event liability, and the challenge of testing the safety of so-called biologics (antibodies, gene therapy and so on.). PMID:18604233

A prediction of the trend of population development in urban and rural areas in China.

PubMed

Hu, Y

1998-01-01

This study predicts trends in population growth, urbanization, and age structure in China. Data were obtained from the 1990 Census. Population totaled 1.22 billion at the end of 1996. The fertility model predicts future fertility by variant and parity; parameters are provided in a table. High, medium, and low fertility variants, respectively, are based on the total regressive fertility rates (TRFR) of 2.23, 1.9, and 1.6. The medium variant assumes 2 children in rural areas. The low variant is ideal and assumes no third parity in rural areas. Urbanization means an annual average increase of 0.5% after 1996 at pace I and 0.8% at pace II. Urban population will be 57.8% of total population by 2050. Under these three variants, population size in 2000 will be 898 million in rural and 403 million in urban areas, 869 million in rural and 400 million in urban areas, and 856 million in rural and 398 million in urban areas, respectively. Population will peak at 1.7 billion in 2050, at 1.48 billion in 2033, and at 1.38 billion in 2023, respectively. During the period 2000-2020, about 10-14 million rural migrants will move to urban areas; 10 million will move thereafter. The elderly aged over 60 years will reach 7% by 2000 and 20% by 2040. Rural population will age faster than urban population. The working age population will reach 775 million in 2000, peak at 868 million in 2016, and will always be over 60% of total population. School-age population will amount to over 300 million by 2030. Young population will always be more than 25% in rural areas, which is nearly 17 percentage points higher than in urban areas.

Trends of Occupational Fatalities Involving Machines, United States, 1992–2010

PubMed Central

Marsh, Suzanne M.; Fosbroke, David E.

2016-01-01

Background This paper describes trends of occupational machine-related fatalities from 1992–2010. We examine temporal patterns by worker demographics, machine types (e.g., stationary, mobile), and industries. Methods We analyzed fatalities from Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. We used injury source to identify machine-related incidents and Poisson regression to assess trends over the 19-year period. Results There was an average annual decrease of 2.8% in overall machine-related fatality rates from 1992 through 2010. Mobile machine-related fatality rates decreased an average of 2.6% annually and stationary machine-related rates decreased an average of 3.5% annually. Groups that continued to be at high risk included older workers; self-employed; and workers in agriculture/forestry/fishing, construction, and mining. Conclusion Addressing dangers posed by tractors, excavators, and other mobile machines needs to continue. High-risk worker groups should receive targeted information on machine safety. PMID:26358658

Linguistic Preprocessing and Tagging for Problem Report Trend Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beil, Robert J.; Malin, Jane T.

2012-01-01

Mr. Robert Beil, Systems Engineer at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), requested the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) develop a prototype tool suite that combines complementary software technology used at Johnson Space Center (JSC) and KSC for problem report preprocessing and semantic tag extraction, to improve input to data mining and trend analysis. This document contains the outcome of the assessment and the Findings, Observations and NESC Recommendations.

North Atlantic Oscillation modulates total ozone winter trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appenzeller, Christof; Weiss, Andrea K.; Staehelin, Johannes

2000-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is modulating the Earth's ozone shield such that the calculated anthropogenic total ozone decrease is enhanced over Europe whereas over the North Atlantic region it is reduced (for the last 30 years). Including the NAO in a statistical model suggests a more uniform chemical winter trend compared to the strong longitudinal variation reported earlier. At Arosa (Switzerland) the trend is reduced to -2.4% per decade compared to -3.2% and at Reykjavik (Iceland) it is enhanced to -3.8% compared to 0%. The revised trend is slightly below the predictions by 2D chemical models. Decadal ozone variability is linked to variations in the dynamical structure of the atmosphere, as reflected in the tropopause pressure. The latter varies in concert with the NAO index with a distinct geographical pattern.

Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, H.; Iwahana, G.; Ohta, T.

2015-12-01

The larch (Larix spp.) forest in eastern Siberia is the world's largest coniferous forest. However, its existence depends on near-surface permafrost, which increases water availability for trees, and the boundary of the forest closely follows the permafrost zone. Therefore, the degradation of near-surface permafrost due to forecasted warming trends during the 21st century is expected to affect the larch forest in Siberia. However, predictions of how warming trends will affect this forest vary greatly, and many uncertainties remain about land-atmospheric interactions within the ecosystem. We developed an integrated land surface model to analyze how the Siberian larch forest will react to current warming trends. This model analyzed interactions between vegetation dynamics and thermo-hydrology and showed that, under climatic conditions predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6 and 8.5, annual larch net primary production (NPP) increased about 2 and 3 times, respectively, by the end of 21st century compared with that in the 20th century. Soil water content during larch growing season showed no obvious trend, even after decay of surface permafrost and accompanying sub-surface runoff. A sensitivity test showed that the forecasted warming and pluvial trends extended leafing days of larches and reduced water shortages during the growing season, thereby increasing productivity.

Automatic Pre-Hospital Vital Signs Waveform and Trend Data Capture Fills Quality Management, Triage and Outcome Prediction Gaps

PubMed Central

Mackenzie, Colin F; Hu, Peter; Sen, Ayan; Dutton, Rick; Seebode, Steve; Floccare, Doug; Scalea, Tom

2008-01-01

Trauma Triage errors are frequent and costly. What happens in pre-hospital care remains anecdotal because of the dual responsibility of treatment (resuscitation and stabilization) and documentation in a time-critical environment. Continuous pre-hospital vital signs waveforms and numerical trends were automatically collected in our study. Abnormalities of pulse oximeter oxygen saturation (< 95%) and validated heart rate (> 100/min) showed better prediction of injury severity, need for immediate blood transfusion, intra-abdominal surgery, tracheal intubation and chest tube insertion than Trauma Registry data or Pre-hospital provider estimations. Automated means of data collection introduced the potential for more accurate and objective reporting of patient vital signs helping in evaluating quality of care and establishing performance indicators and benchmarks. Addition of novel and existing non-invasive monitors and waveform analyses could make the pulse oximeter the decision aid of choice to improve trauma patient triage. PMID:18999022

The Trend-in-trend Research Design for Causal Inference.

PubMed

Ji, Xinyao; Small, Dylan S; Leonard, Charles E; Hennessy, Sean

2017-07-01

Cohort studies can be biased by unmeasured confounding. We propose a hybrid ecologic-epidemiologic design called the trend-in-trend design, which requires a strong time trend in exposure, but is unbiased unless there are unmeasured factors affecting outcome for which there are time trends in prevalence that are correlated with time trends in exposure across strata with different exposure trends. Thus, the conditions under which the trend-in-trend study is biased are a subset of those under which a cohort study is biased. The trend-in-trend design first divides the study population into strata based on the cumulative probability of exposure given covariates, which effectively stratifies on time trend in exposure, provided there is a trend. Next, a covariates-free maximum likelihood model estimates the odds ratio (OR) using data on exposure prevalence and outcome frequency within cumulative probability of exposure strata, across multiple periods. In simulations, the trend-in-trend design produced ORs with negligible bias in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In empiric applications, trend-in-trend reproduced the known positive association between rofecoxib and myocardial infarction (observed OR: 1.2, 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 1.4), and known null associations between rofecoxib and severe hypoglycemia (OR = 1.1 [0.92, 1.3]) and nonvertebral fracture (OR = 0.84 [0.64, 1.1]). The trend-in-trend method may be useful in settings where there is a strong time trend in exposure, such as a newly approved drug or other medical intervention. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B178.

The Independent Living Scales in civil competency evaluations: initial findings and prediction of competency adjudication.

PubMed

Quickel, Emalee J W; Demakis, George J

2013-06-01

We address a gap in the literature on civil competency by examining characteristics of those who undergo civil competency evaluations and how well Managing Money and Health and Safety subscales of the Independent Living Scales (ILS) predict legal competency adjudications. We were also interested whether these subscales are more accurate in making such predictions than the Mini-Mental State Examination and Trail-Making Test, Parts A and B, well-known measures of neuropsychological functioning. Actual legal competency decisions were obtained from public court records on 71 individuals with either mental retardation/borderline intellectual functioning (MR/BIF) or psychiatric, neurological, or combined psychiatric or neurological diagnoses. We found that those with neurological diagnoses performed significantly better on the Trail-Making Test, Part A, than the MR/BIF and combined neurological and psychiatric groups, and they demonstrated trends in the same direction for other measures. Both ILS subscales performed better than the cognitive measures, in terms of both hit rate and predictive value, in predicting ultimate judicial decision-making about competency. These findings are particularly relevant for clinicians who must decide what measures to include in an assessment battery in civil competency evaluations.

ADOT state-specific crash prediction models : an Arizona needs study.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

The predictive method in the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) includes a safety performance function (SPF), : crash modification factors (CMFs), and a local calibration factor (C), if available. Two alternatives exist for : applying the HSM prediction met...

Predicting Visibility of Aircraft

PubMed Central

Watson, Andrew; Ramirez, Cesar V.; Salud, Ellen

2009-01-01

Visual detection of aircraft by human observers is an important element of aviation safety. To assess and ensure safety, it would be useful to be able to be able to predict the visibility, to a human observer, of an aircraft of specified size, shape, distance, and coloration. Examples include assuring safe separation among aircraft and between aircraft and unmanned vehicles, design of airport control towers, and efforts to enhance or suppress the visibility of military and rescue vehicles. We have recently developed a simple metric of pattern visibility, the Spatial Standard Observer (SSO). In this report we examine whether the SSO can predict visibility of simulated aircraft images. We constructed a set of aircraft images from three-dimensional computer graphic models, and measured the luminance contrast threshold for each image from three human observers. The data were well predicted by the SSO. Finally, we show how to use the SSO to predict visibility range for aircraft of arbitrary size, shape, distance, and coloration. PMID:19462007

Scalable and Cost-Effective Assignment of Mobile Crowdsensing Tasks Based on Profiling Trends and Prediction: The ParticipAct Living Lab Experience

PubMed Central

Bellavista, Paolo; Corradi, Antonio; Foschini, Luca; Ianniello, Raffaele

2015-01-01

Nowadays, sensor-rich smartphones potentially enable the harvesting of huge amounts of valuable sensing data in urban environments, by opportunistically involving citizens to play the role of mobile virtual sensors to cover Smart City areas of interest. This paper proposes an in-depth study of the challenging technical issues related to the efficient assignment of Mobile Crowd Sensing (MCS) data collection tasks to volunteers in a crowdsensing campaign. In particular, the paper originally describes how to increase the effectiveness of the proposed sensing campaigns through the inclusion of several new facilities, including accurate participant selection algorithms able to profile and predict user mobility patterns, gaming techniques, and timely geo-notification. The reported results show the feasibility of exploiting profiling trends/prediction techniques from volunteers’ behavior; moreover, they quantitatively compare different MCS task assignment strategies based on large-scale and real MCS data campaigns run in the ParticipAct living lab, an ongoing MCS real-world experiment that involved more than 170 students of the University of Bologna for more than one year. PMID:26263985

Farm Safety

PubMed Central

Wilson, G. S.

1966-01-01

Accident and safety are related terms; the higher the accident rate in any industry, the greater is the need for safety measures designed to prevent accidents. This article discusses the accident and safety problems in agriculture, which includes horticulture and forestry. There is still a tendency among townspeople to think of the countryside as peaceful and tranquil, a place where nothing happens very quickly and far removed from violent death or crippling injury. This pleasant rustic picture has undergone a striking change in the last 30 years owing to considerable agricultural mechanization and the development of chemical pesticides, which have brought new dangers to those who live and work on the land. Although men have readily adapted themselves to new machines and methods, they have not proved as able to recognize new dangers and learn how to guard against them. In consequence, accidents have increased to such an extent that the whole industry has realized the need for positive preventive measures. In this country, it is generally accepted that an employer of labour has a responsibility to provide safe working conditions for those he employs. Farm safety legislation goes a little further and usually requires an employer to provide necessary safeguards, with the added requirement on a worker to make use of them. It is a feature of accident prevention work that it never reaches a stage when it can be regarded as complete. Even when a reduction in accidents has been achieved, the effort must be sustained or the trend will be quickly reversed. Images PMID:5904095

Recent trends in SELEX technique and its application to food safety monitoring

PubMed Central

Mei, Zhanlong; Yao, Li; Wang, Xin; Zheng, Lei; Liu, Jian; Liu, Guodong; Peng, Chifang; Chen, Wei

2014-01-01

The method referred to as “systemic evolution of ligands by exponential enrichment” (SELEX) was introduced in 1990 and ever since has become an important tool for the identification and screening of aptamers. Such nucleic acids can recognize and bind to their corresponding targets (analytes) with high selectivity and affinity, and aptamers therefore have become attractive alternatives to traditional antibodies not the least because they are much more stable. Meanwhile, they have found numerous applications in different fields including food quality and safety monitoring. This review first gives an introduction into the selection process and to the evolution of SELEX, then covers applications of aptamers in the surveillance of food safety (with subsections on absorptiometric, electrochemical, fluorescent and other methods), and then gives conclusions and perspectives. The SELEX method excels by its features of in vitro, high throughput and ease of operation. This review contains 86 references. PMID:25419005

Promoting safety voice with safety-specific transformational leadership: the mediating role of two dimensions of trust.

PubMed

Conchie, Stacey M; Taylor, Paul J; Donald, Ian J

2012-01-01

Although safety-specific transformational leadership is known to encourage employee safety voice behaviors, less is known about what makes this style of leadership effective. We tested a model that links safety-specific transformational leadership to safety voice through various dimensions of trust. Data from 150 supervisor-employee dyads from the United Kingdom oil industry supported our predictions that the effects of safety-specific transformational leadership are sequentially mediated by affect-based trust beliefs and disclosure trust intentions. Moreover, we found that reliance trust intentions moderated the effect of disclosure: employees' disclosure intentions mediated the effects of affect-based trust on safety voice behaviors only when employees' intention to rely on their leader was moderate to high. These findings suggest that leaders seeking to encourage safety voice behaviors should go beyond "good reason" arguments and develop affective bonds with their employees.

Physical characteristics and evolutionary trends of continental rifts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramberg, I. B.; Morgan, P.

1984-01-01

Rifts may be defined as zones beneath which the entire lithosphere has ruptured in extension. They are widespread and occur in a variety of tectonic settings, and range up to 2,600 m.y. in age. The object of this review is to highlight characteristic features of modern and ancient rifts, to emphasize differences and similarities in order to help characterize evolutionary trends, to identify physical conditions favorable for initiation as well as termination of rifting, and to provide constraints for future modeling studies of rifting. Rifts are characterized on the basis of their structural, geomorphic, magmatic and geophysical features and the diverse character of these features and their evolutionary trends through time are discussed. Mechanisms of rifting are critically examined in terms of the physical characteristics and evolutionary trends of rifts, and it is concluded that while simple models can give valuable insight into specific processes of rifting, individual rifts can rarely, if ever, be characterized by well defined trends predicted by these models. More data are required to clearly define evolutionary trends, and the models require development to incorporate the effects of lithospheric heterogeneities and complex geologic histories.

Technologies and Trends to Improve Table Olive Quality and Safety

PubMed Central

Campus, Marco; Değirmencioğlu, Nurcan; Comunian, Roberta

2018-01-01

Table olives are the most widely consumed fermented food in the Mediterranean countries. Peculiar processing technologies are used to process olives, which are aimed at the debittering of the fruits and improvement of their sensory characteristics, ensuring safety of consumption at the same time. Processors demand for novel techniques to improve industrial performances, while consumers' attention for natural and healthy foods has increased in recent years. From field to table, new techniques have been developed to decrease microbial load of potential spoilage microorganisms, improve fermentation kinetics and ensure safety of consumption of the packed products. This review article depicts current technologies and recent advances in the processing technology of table olives. Attention has been paid on pre processing technologies, some of which are still under-researched, expecially physical techniques, such ad ionizing radiations, ultrasounds and electrolyzed water solutions, which are interesting also to ensure pesticide decontamination. The selections and use of starter cultures have been extensively reviewed, particularly the characterization of Lactic Acid Bacteria and Yeasts to fasten and safely drive the fermentation process. The selection and use of probiotic strains to address the request for functional foods has been reported, along with salt reduction strategies to address health concerns, associated with table olives consumption. In this respect, probiotics enriched table olives and strategies to reduce sodium intake are the main topics discussed. New processing technologies and post packaging interventions to extend the shelf life are illustrated, and main findings in modified atmosphere packaging, high pressure processing and biopreservaton applied to table olive, are reported and discussed. PMID:29670593

Smooth handling: the lack of safety-related consumer information in car advertisements.

PubMed

Wilson, Nick; Maher, Anthony; Thomson, George; Keall, Michael

2007-10-01

To examine the content and trends of safety-related consumer information in magazine vehicle advertisements, as a case study within the worldwide marketing of vehicles. Content analysis of popular current affairs magazines in New Zealand for the 5-year period 2001-2005 was undertaken (n = 514 advertisements), supplemented with vehicle data from official websites. Safety information in advertisements for light passenger vehicles was relatively uncommon with only 27% mentioning one or more of nine key safety features examined (average: 1.7 out of nine features in this 27%). Also included were potentially hazardous features of: speed imagery (in 29% of advertisements), power references (14%), and acceleration data (4%). The speed and power aspects became relatively more common over the 5-year period (p < 0.05 for trend). To enhance informed consumer choice and improve injury prevention, governments should consider regulating the content of vehicle advertisements and vehicle marketing - as already occurs with many other consumer products.

Research on public participant urban infrastructure safety monitoring system using smartphone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xuefeng; Wang, Niannian; Ou, Jinping; Yu, Yan; Li, Mingchu

2017-04-01

Currently more and more people concerned about the safety of major public security. Public participant urban infrastructure safety monitoring and investigation has become a trend in the era of big data. In this paper, public participant urban infrastructure safety protection system based on smart phones is proposed. The system makes it possible to public participant disaster data collection, monitoring and emergency evaluation in the field of disaster prevention and mitigation. Function of the system is to monitor the structural acceleration, angle and other vibration information, and extract structural deformation and implement disaster emergency communications based on smartphone without network. The monitoring data is uploaded to the website to create urban safety information database. Then the system supports big data analysis processing, the structure safety assessment and city safety early warning.

Autonomous system for launch vehicle range safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrell, Bob; Haley, Sam

2001-02-01

The Autonomous Flight Safety System (AFSS) is a launch vehicle subsystem whose ultimate goal is an autonomous capability to assure range safety (people and valuable resources), flight personnel safety, flight assets safety (recovery of valuable vehicles and cargo), and global coverage with a dramatic simplification of range infrastructure. The AFSS is capable of determining current vehicle position and predicting the impact point with respect to flight restriction zones. Additionally, it is able to discern whether or not the launch vehicle is an immediate threat to public safety, and initiate the appropriate range safety response. These features provide for a dramatic cost reduction in range operations and improved reliability of mission success. .

Trends in highway construction costs in Louisiana : technical summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-09-01

The objectives of this study are to observe past trends in highway construction costs in Louisiana, identify factors that determine these costs, quantify their impact, and establish a model that can be used to predict future construction cost in Loui...

Modeling the impact of spatial relationships on horizontal curve safety.

PubMed

Findley, Daniel J; Hummer, Joseph E; Rasdorf, William; Zegeer, Charles V; Fowler, Tyler J

2012-03-01

The curved segments of roadways are more hazardous because of the additional centripetalforces exerted on a vehicle, driver expectations, and other factors. The safety of a curve is dependent on various factors, most notably by geometric factors, but the location of a curve in relation to other curves is also thought to influence the safety of those curves because of a driver's expectation to encounter additional curves. The link between an individual curve's geometric characteristics and its safety performance has been established, but spatial considerations are typically not included in a safety analysis. The spatial considerations included in this research consisted of four components: distance to adjacent curves, direction of turn of the adjacent curves, and radius and length of the adjacent curves. The primary objective of this paper is to quantify the spatial relationship between adjacent horizontal curves and horizontal curve safety using a crash modification factor. Doing so enables a safety professional to more accurately estimate safety to allocate funding to reduce or prevent future collisions and more efficiently design new roadway sections to minimize crash risk where there will be a series of curves along a route. The most important finding from this research is the statistical significance of spatial considerations for the prediction of horizontal curve safety. The distances to adjacent curves were found to be a reliable predictor of observed collisions. This research recommends a model which utilizes spatial considerations for horizontal curve safety prediction in addition to current Highway Safety Manual prediction capabilities using individual curve geometric features. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Big data in food safety: An overview.

PubMed

Marvin, Hans J P; Janssen, Esmée M; Bouzembrak, Yamine; Hendriksen, Peter J M; Staats, Martijn

2017-07-24

Technology is now being developed that is able to handle vast amounts of structured and unstructured data from diverse sources and origins. These technologies are often referred to as big data, and open new areas of research and applications that will have an increasing impact in all sectors of our society. In this paper we assessed to which extent big data is being applied in the food safety domain and identified several promising trends. In several parts of the world, governments stimulate the publication on internet of all data generated in public funded research projects. This policy opens new opportunities for stakeholders dealing with food safety to address issues which were not possible before. Application of mobile phones as detection devices for food safety and the use of social media as early warning of food safety problems are a few examples of the new developments that are possible due to big data.

Antiepileptic Drugs 2012: Recent Advances and Trends

PubMed Central

Sirven, Joseph I.; Noe, Katherine; Hoerth, Matthew; Drazkowski, Joseph

2012-01-01

There are now 24 antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) approved for use in epilepsy in the United States by the Food and Drug Administration. A literature search was conducted using PubMed, MEDLINE, and Google for all English-language articles that discuss newly approved AEDs and the use of AEDs in epilepsy in the United States from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2011. Five new agents were identified that have come onto the market within the past 2 years. Moreover, 3 trends involving AEDs have become clinically important and must be considered by all who treat patients with epilepsy. These trends include issues of generic substitution of AEDs, pharmacogenomics predicting serious adverse events in certain ethnic populations, and the issue of the suicide risk involving the entire class of AEDs. This article discusses the most recent AEDs approved for use in the United States and the 3 important trends shaping the modern medical management of epilepsy. PMID:22958992

The patient's safety and access to experimental drugs after the termination of clinical trials: regulations and trends.

PubMed

da Silva, Ricardo Eccard; Amato, Angélica Amorim; Sousa, Thiago do Rego; de Carvalho, Marta Rodrigues; Novaes, Maria Rita Carvalho Garbi

2018-05-12

Participants' rights and safety must be guaranteed not only while a clinical trial is being conducted but also when a clinical trial finishes. The criteria for post-trial access to experimental drugs, however, are unclear in various countries. The objectives of this study were (i) to ascertain if there were regulations or guidelines related to patients' access to drugs after the end of clinical trials in the countries selected in the study and (ii) to analyze trends in post-trial access in countries classified by their level of economic development. This study is a retrospective review. The data are from the records of clinical trials from 2014 registered in the World Health Organization's International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) database. Among the countries selected, provision of drugs post-trial is mandatory only in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Finland, and Peru. The plans for post-trial access tend to be more present in low- and middle-income and upper middle-income countries, in comparison with high-income countries. Studies involving vulnerable populations are 2.53 times more likely to have plans for post-trial access than studies which do not. The guaranteeing of post-trial access remains mandatory in few countries. Considering that individuals seen as vulnerable have been included in clinical trials without plans for post-trial access, stakeholders must discuss the need to develop regulations mandating the guaranteeing of post-trial access in specified situations.

Health social work in Canada: Five trends worth noting.

PubMed

Bryson, Stephanie A; Bosma, Harvey

2018-05-30

Highlighting a strong human rights and social justice orientation underlying health social work in Canada, this paper describes recent contributions of Canadian health social work practitioners and scholars to five areas identified by Auslander (2001) in a delphi study of health social work in its first century. Five current 'trends' are discussed which correspond with Auslander's themes of professional legitimacy and scope, social causation, dissemination of knowledge, interventions, and cultural appropriateness. These trends are: 1) defining the scope of health social work practice; 2) addressing the social determinants of health; 3) promoting evidence-based practice in health social work; 4) delivering client and family-centered care; and 5) implementing cultural safety and trauma-informed practice. Suggestions are made to further strengthen the position of health social work in Canada.

Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Keith Moore, J.; Lindsay, Keith; Randerson, James T.

2018-04-01

Dissolved oxygen (O2) is essential for the survival of marine animals. Climate change impacts on future oxygen distributions could modify species biogeography, trophic interactions, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models predict a decreasing trend in marine O2 over the 21st century. Here we show that this increasing hypoxia trend reverses in the tropics after 2100 in the Community Earth System Model forced by atmospheric CO2 from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5. In tropical intermediate waters between 200 and 1,000 m, the model predicts a steady decline of O2 and an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) during the 21st century. By 2150, however, the trend reverses with oxygen concentration increasing and OMZ volume shrinking through 2300. A novel five-box model approach in conjunction with output from the full Earth system model is used to separate the contributions of biological and physical processes to the trends in tropical oxygen. The tropical O2 recovery is caused mainly by reductions in tropical biological export, coupled with a modest increase in ventilation after 2200. The time-evolving oxygen distribution impacts marine nitrogen cycling, with potentially important climate feedbacks.

Influence of safety motivation and climate on safety behaviour and outcomes: evidence from the Saudi Arabian construction industry.

PubMed

Panuwatwanich, Kriengsak; Al-Haadir, Saeed; Stewart, Rodney A

2017-03-01

Over the last three decades, safety literature has focused on safety climate and its role in forecasting injuries and accidents. However, research findings regarding the relationships between safety climate and other key outcome constructs are somewhat inconsistent. Recent safety climate literature suggests that examining the role of safety motivation may help provide a better explanation of such relationships. The research presented in this article aimed to empirically analyse the relationships among safety motivation, safety climate, safety behaviour and safety outcomes within the context of the Saudi Arabian construction industry. A conceptual model was developed to examine the relationships among four main constructs: safety motivation, safety climate, safety behaviour and safety outcomes. Based on the survey data collected in Saudi Arabia from site engineers and project managers (n = 295), statistical analyses were carried out, including confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis, and structural equation modelling to assess the model and test the hypotheses. The main results indicated that safety motivation could positively influence safety behaviour through safety climate, which plays a mediating role for this mechanism. The results also confirmed that safety behaviour could predict safety outcomes within the context of the Saudi Arabian construction industry.

Main Trend Extraction Based on Irregular Sampling Estimation and Its Application in Storage Volume of Internet Data Center

PubMed Central

Dou, Chao

2016-01-01

The storage volume of internet data center is one of the classical time series. It is very valuable to predict the storage volume of a data center for the business value. However, the storage volume series from a data center is always “dirty,” which contains the noise, missing data, and outliers, so it is necessary to extract the main trend of storage volume series for the future prediction processing. In this paper, we propose an irregular sampling estimation method to extract the main trend of the time series, in which the Kalman filter is used to remove the “dirty” data; then the cubic spline interpolation and average method are used to reconstruct the main trend. The developed method is applied in the storage volume series of internet data center. The experiment results show that the developed method can estimate the main trend of storage volume series accurately and make great contribution to predict the future volume value. 
 PMID:28090205

Main Trend Extraction Based on Irregular Sampling Estimation and Its Application in Storage Volume of Internet Data Center.

PubMed

Miao, Beibei; Dou, Chao; Jin, Xuebo

2016-01-01

The storage volume of internet data center is one of the classical time series. It is very valuable to predict the storage volume of a data center for the business value. However, the storage volume series from a data center is always "dirty," which contains the noise, missing data, and outliers, so it is necessary to extract the main trend of storage volume series for the future prediction processing. In this paper, we propose an irregular sampling estimation method to extract the main trend of the time series, in which the Kalman filter is used to remove the "dirty" data; then the cubic spline interpolation and average method are used to reconstruct the main trend. The developed method is applied in the storage volume series of internet data center. The experiment results show that the developed method can estimate the main trend of storage volume series accurately and make great contribution to predict the future volume value. 
 .

Based on BP Neural Network Stock Prediction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Xiangwei; Ma, Xin

2012-01-01

The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…

On the significance of future trends in flood frequencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, M.; Schulz, K.; Wieder, O.

2015-12-01

Floods are a significant threat for alpine headwater catchments and for the forelands. The formation of significant flood events is thereby often coupled on processes occurring in the alpine zone. Rain on snow events are just one example. The prediction of flood risks or trends of flood risks is of major interest to people under direct threat, policy and decision makers as well as for insurance companies. A lot of research was and is currently done in view of detecting future trends in flood extremes or return periods. From a pure physically based point of view, there is strong evidence that those trends exist. But, the central point question is if trends in flood events or other extreme events could be detected from a statistical point of view and on the basis of the available data. This study will investigate this question on the basis of different target parameters and by using long term measurements.

Two level approach to safety planning incorporating the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) network screening.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-04-01

Compared to microscopic safety studies, macroscopic-focused research is more efficient at integrating zonal-level features into crash prediction models and identifying hot zones. However, macroscopic screening has accuracy limitations. Thus, this stu...

Detection and estimation trends linked to air quality and mortality on French Riviera over the 1990-2005 period to develop a prediction model of an aggregate risk index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sicard, P.; Mangin, A.; Hebel, P.; Lesne, O.; Malléa, P.

2009-04-01

There is a profound relation between human health and well being from the one side and air pollution levels from the other. Air quality in South of France and more specifically in Nice, is known to be bad, especially in summer. The main objectives are to establish correlations between air pollution, exposure of people and reactivity of these people to this aggression, to validate a risk index built from air quality and pollen data in the area of Nice and to construct a prediction model of this sanitary index. The spatial extent of the experiment will be mainly the territory of "Alpes Maritimes". All the tasks are performed in collaboration with the "Heath-Environment Network" of the "Centre Hospitalier Universitaire" of Nice. The development of an adequate tool for observation (health index and/or indices per pathology) to understand impacts of pollution levels in an area is of utmost importance. These indexes should take into account the possible adverse effects associated with the coexistence of all the pollutants and environmental parameters. This tool must be able to inform the citizens about the levels of pollution in an adequate and understandable way but also to be used by relevant authorities to take a series of predetermined measures to protect the health of the population. This paper describes the first step to construct a prediction model of this sanitary index with a confidence interval 99% (and 95%): detection and estimation trends observed in concentrations of pollutants, emissions and mortality over the 1990-2005 period in the "Alpes Maritimes" area. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test has been developed for detecting and estimating monotonic trends in the time series and applied in our study at annual values of pollutants air concentrations. An important objective of many environmental monitoring programs is to detect changes or trends in pollution levels over time. Over the period 1990-2005, concerning the emissions of the main pollutants, we

Meeting Report: 2013 PDA Virus & TSE Safety Forum.

PubMed

Willkommen, Hannelore; Blümel, Johannes; Brorson, Kurt; Chen, Dayue; Chen, Qi; Gröner, Albrecht; Hubbard, Brian R; Kreil, Thomas R; Ruffing, Michel; Ruiz, Sol; Scott, Dorothy; Silvester, Glenda

2014-01-01

The report provides a summary of the presentations and discussions at the Virus & TSE Safety Forum 2013 organized by the Parenteral Drug Association (PDA) and held in Berlin, Germany, from June 4 to 6, 2013. The conference was accompanied by a workshop, "Virus Spike Preparations and Virus Removal by Filtration: New Trends and Developments". The presentations and the discussion at the workshop are summarized in a separate report that will be published in this issue of the journal as well. As with previous conferences of this series, the PDA Virus & TSE Safety Forum 2013 provided again an excellent opportunity to exchange information and opinions between the industry, research organizations, and regulatory bodies. Updates on regulatory considerations related to virus and transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) safety of biopharmaceuticals were provided by agencies of the European Union (EU), the United States (US), and Singapore. The epidemiology and detection methods of new emerging pathogens like hepatitis E virus and parvovirus (PARV 4) were exemplified, and the risk of contamination of animal-derived raw materials like trypsin was considered in particular. The benefit of using new sequence-based virus detection methods was discussed. Events of bioreactor contaminations in the past drew the attention to root cause investigations and preventive actions, which were illustrated by several examples. Virus clearance data of specific unit operations were provided; the discussion focused on the mechanism of virus clearance and on the strategic concept of viral clearance integration. As in previous years, the virus safety section was followed by a TSE section that covered recent scientific findings that may influence the risk assessment of blood and cell substrates. These included the realization that interspecies transmission of TSE by blood components in sheep is greater than predicted by assays in transgenic mice. Also, the pathogenesis and possibility of

Does Demand for Breast Augmentation Reflect National Financial Trends?

PubMed

Kearney, L; Dolan, R T; Clover, A J; Kelly, E J; O'Broin, E; O'Shaughnessy, M; O'Sullivan, S T

2017-04-01

Aesthetic plastic surgery is a consumer-driven industry, subject to influence by financial forces. A changing economic environment may thus impact on the demand for surgery. The aim of this study was to explore trends in demand for bilateral breast augmentation (BBA) in consecutively presenting patients over an 11-year period and to examine if a correlation exists between these trends and changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a key economic indicator. This study revealed a correlation between annual number of breast augmentation procedures performed and GDP values (r 2  = 0.34, p value = 0.059). Additionally, predicted number of BBA procedures, based on predicted GDP growth in Ireland, strongly correlated with actual number of BBA performed (r 2  = 0.93, p value = 0.000001). Predicted GDP growth can potentially forecast future demand for BBA in our cohort allowing plastic surgeons to modify their practice accordingly. This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

Using Human 'Experiments of Nature' to Predict Drug Safety Issues: An Example with PCSK9 Inhibitors.

PubMed

Jerome, Rebecca N; Pulley, Jill M; Roden, Dan M; Shirey-Rice, Jana K; Bastarache, Lisa A; R Bernard, Gordon; B Ekstrom, Leeland; Lancaster, William J; Denny, Joshua C

2018-03-01

When a new drug enters the market, its full array of side effects remains to be defined. Current surveillance approaches targeting these effects remain largely reactive. There is a need for development of methods to predict specific safety events that should be sought for a given new drug during development and postmarketing activities. We present here a safety signal identification approach applied to a new set of drug entities, inhibitors of the serine protease proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9). Using phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) methods, we analyzed available genotype and clinical data from 29,722 patients, leveraging the known effects of changes in PCSK9 to identify novel phenotypes in which this protein and its inhibitors may have impact. PheWAS revealed a significantly reduced risk of hypercholesterolemia (odds ratio [OR] 0.68, p = 7.6 × 10 -4 ) in association with a known loss-of-function variant in PCSK9, R46L. Similarly, laboratory data indicated significantly reduced beta mean low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (- 14.47 mg/dL, p = 2.58 × 10 -23 ) in individuals carrying the R46L variant. The R46L variant was also associated with an increased risk of spina bifida (OR 5.90, p = 2.7 × 10 -4 ), suggesting that further investigation of potential connections between inhibition of PCSK9 and neural tube defects may be warranted. This novel methodology provides an opportunity to put in place new mechanisms to assess the safety and long-term tolerability of PCSK9 inhibitors specifically, and other new agents in general, as they move into human testing and expanded clinical use.

The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery (ASAPS) survey: current trends in liposuction.

PubMed

Ahmad, Jamil; Eaves, Felmont F; Rohrich, Rod J; Kenkel, Jeffrey M

2011-02-01

The emergence of new technologies necessitates a study of current trends in liposuction and other methods for fat removal. The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery (ASAPS) conducted a survey of its members to gain valuable information from Board-certified plastic surgeons about their experience with new technologies for fat removal and managing complications after liposuction. The ASAPS Current Trends in Liposuction Survey was emailed to 1713 ASAPS members. Data were tabulated and examined to determine current trends in liposuction and other fat removal techniques performed by ASAPS members. The response rate for the survey was 28.7% (n = 492). Most ASAPS respondents reported performing between 50 and 100 liposuction procedures annually. Most plastic surgeons currently employ or have previous experience with suction-assisted lipectomy/liposuction (SAL), ultrasound-assisted liposuction (UAL), and power-assisted liposuction, but fewer reported experience with laser-assisted liposuction (LAL), mesotherapy, or external, noninvasive devices. SAL was the preferred method of fat removal for 51.4%. UAL, LAL, and SAL were most commonly associated with complications. Only 10.5% of ASAPS members employ LAL; 38% have treated a patient with complications secondary to LAL. Valuable information about current trends in liposuction and other fat removal techniques has been gained from this survey. Although many studies have been published that review issues related to safety, morbidity, aesthetics, and recovery after different methods of fat removal, more prospective studies with standardized objective outcome measures comparing these techniques, particularly newer modalities, are needed to continue improving safety-related standards of care.

Predictive Trip Detection for Nuclear Power Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rankin, Drew J.; Jiang, Jin

2016-08-01

This paper investigates the use of a Kalman filter (KF) to predict, within the shutdown system (SDS) of a nuclear power plant (NPP), whether safety parameter measurements have reached a trip set-point. In addition, least squares (LS) estimation compensates for prediction error due to system-model mismatch. The motivation behind predictive shutdown is to reduce the amount of time between the occurrence of a fault or failure and the time of trip detection, referred to as time-to-trip. These reductions in time-to-trip can ultimately lead to increases in safety and productivity margins. The proposed predictive SDS differs from conventional SDSs in that it compares point-predictions of the measurements, rather than sensor measurements, against trip set-points. The predictive SDS is validated through simulation and experiments for the steam generator water level safety parameter. Performance of the proposed predictive SDS is compared against benchmark conventional SDS with respect to time-to-trip. In addition, this paper analyzes: prediction uncertainty, as well as; the conditions under which it is possible to achieve reduced time-to-trip. Simulation results demonstrate that on average the predictive SDS reduces time-to-trip by an amount of time equal to the length of the prediction horizon and that the distribution of times-to-trip is approximately Gaussian. Experimental results reveal that a reduced time-to-trip can be achieved in a real-world system with unknown system-model mismatch and that the predictive SDS can be implemented with a scan time of under 100ms. Thus, this paper is a proof of concept for KF/LS-based predictive trip detection.

Using Machine Learning to Predict MCNP Bias

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grechanuk, Pavel Aleksandrovi

For many real-world applications in radiation transport where simulations are compared to experimental measurements, like in nuclear criticality safety, the bias (simulated - experimental k eff) in the calculation is an extremely important quantity used for code validation. The objective of this project is to accurately predict the bias of MCNP6 [1] criticality calculations using machine learning (ML) algorithms, with the intention of creating a tool that can complement the current nuclear criticality safety methods. In the latest release of MCNP6, the Whisper tool is available for criticality safety analysts and includes a large catalogue of experimental benchmarks, sensitivity profiles,more » and nuclear data covariance matrices. This data, coming from 1100+ benchmark cases, is used in this study of ML algorithms for criticality safety bias predictions.« less

The influence of authentic leadership on safety climate in nursing.

PubMed

Dirik, Hasan Fehmi; Seren Intepeler, Seyda

2017-07-01

This study analysed nurses' perceptions of authentic leadership and safety climate and examined the contribution of authentic leadership to the safety climate. It has been suggested and emphasised that authentic leadership should be used as a guidance to ensure quality care and the safety of patients and health-care personnel. This predictive study was conducted with 350 nurses in three Turkish hospitals. The data were collected using the Authentic Leadership Questionnaire and the Safety Climate Survey and analysed using hierarchical regression analysis. The mean authentic leadership perception and the safety climate scores of the nurses were 2.92 and 3.50, respectively. The percentage of problematic responses was found to be less than 10% for only four safety climate items. Hierarchical regression analysis revealed that authentic leadership significantly predicted the safety climate. Procedural and political improvements are required in terms of the safety climate in institutions, where the study was conducted, and authentic leadership increases positive perceptions of safety climate. Exhibiting the characteristics of authentic leadership, or improving them and reflecting them on to personnel can enhance the safety climate. Planning information sharing meetings to raise the personnel's awareness of safety climate and systemic improvements can contribute to creating safe care climates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Safety Picks up "STEAM"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roy, Ken

2016-01-01

This column shares safety information for the classroom. STEAM subjects--science, technology, engineering, art, and mathematics--are essential for fostering students' 21st-century skills. STEAM promotes critical-thinking skills, including analysis, assessment, categorization, classification, interpretation, justification, and prediction, and are…

Multi-decadal trends in global terrestrial evapotranspiration and its components.

PubMed

Zhang, Yongqiang; Peña-Arancibia, Jorge L; McVicar, Tim R; Chiew, Francis H S; Vaze, Jai; Liu, Changming; Lu, Xingjie; Zheng, Hongxing; Wang, Yingping; Liu, Yi Y; Miralles, Diego G; Pan, Ming

2016-01-11

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the process by which liquid water becomes water vapor and energetically this accounts for much of incoming solar radiation. If this ET did not occur temperatures would be higher, so understanding ET trends is crucial to predict future temperatures. Recent studies have reported prolonged declines in ET in recent decades, although these declines may relate to climate variability. Here, we used a well-validated diagnostic model to estimate daily ET during 1981-2012, and its three components: transpiration from vegetation (Et), direct evaporation from the soil (Es) and vaporization of intercepted rainfall from vegetation (Ei). During this period, ET over land has increased significantly (p < 0.01), caused by increases in Et and Ei, which are partially counteracted by Es decreasing. These contrasting trends are primarily driven by increases in vegetation leaf area index, dominated by greening. The overall increase in Et over land is about twofold of the decrease in Es. These opposing trends are not simulated by most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and highlight the importance of realistically representing vegetation changes in earth system models for predicting future changes in the energy and water cycle.

Multi-decadal trends in global terrestrial evapotranspiration and its components

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yongqiang; Peña-Arancibia, Jorge L.; McVicar, Tim R.; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Vaze, Jai; Liu, Changming; Lu, Xingjie; Zheng, Hongxing; Wang, Yingping; Liu, Yi Y.; Miralles, Diego G.; Pan, Ming

2016-01-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the process by which liquid water becomes water vapor and energetically this accounts for much of incoming solar radiation. If this ET did not occur temperatures would be higher, so understanding ET trends is crucial to predict future temperatures. Recent studies have reported prolonged declines in ET in recent decades, although these declines may relate to climate variability. Here, we used a well-validated diagnostic model to estimate daily ET during 1981–2012, and its three components: transpiration from vegetation (Et), direct evaporation from the soil (Es) and vaporization of intercepted rainfall from vegetation (Ei). During this period, ET over land has increased significantly (p < 0.01), caused by increases in Et and Ei, which are partially counteracted by Es decreasing. These contrasting trends are primarily driven by increases in vegetation leaf area index, dominated by greening. The overall increase in Et over land is about twofold of the decrease in Es. These opposing trends are not simulated by most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and highlight the importance of realistically representing vegetation changes in earth system models for predicting future changes in the energy and water cycle. PMID:26750505

Update from C3RS lessons learned team : safety culture and trend analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-07-01

The Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) believes that, in addition to process and technology innovations, human-factors-based solutions can significantly contribute to improving safety in the railroad industry. To test this assumption, FRA implemen...

Fall Prediction and Prevention Systems: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Future Research Directions.

PubMed

Rajagopalan, Ramesh; Litvan, Irene; Jung, Tzyy-Ping

2017-11-01

Fall prediction is a multifaceted problem that involves complex interactions between physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Existing fall detection and prediction systems mainly focus on physiological factors such as gait, vision, and cognition, and do not address the multifactorial nature of falls. In addition, these systems lack efficient user interfaces and feedback for preventing future falls. Recent advances in internet of things (IoT) and mobile technologies offer ample opportunities for integrating contextual information about patient behavior and environment along with physiological health data for predicting falls. This article reviews the state-of-the-art in fall detection and prediction systems. It also describes the challenges, limitations, and future directions in the design and implementation of effective fall prediction and prevention systems.

Fall Prediction and Prevention Systems: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Future Research Directions

PubMed Central

Rajagopalan, Ramesh; Jung, Tzyy-Ping

2017-01-01

Fall prediction is a multifaceted problem that involves complex interactions between physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Existing fall detection and prediction systems mainly focus on physiological factors such as gait, vision, and cognition, and do not address the multifactorial nature of falls. In addition, these systems lack efficient user interfaces and feedback for preventing future falls. Recent advances in internet of things (IoT) and mobile technologies offer ample opportunities for integrating contextual information about patient behavior and environment along with physiological health data for predicting falls. This article reviews the state-of-the-art in fall detection and prediction systems. It also describes the challenges, limitations, and future directions in the design and implementation of effective fall prediction and prevention systems. PMID:29104256

Predictors of Hospital Nurses' Safety Practices: Work Environment, Workload, Job Satisfaction, and Error Reporting.

PubMed

Chiang, Hui-Ying; Hsiao, Ya-Chu; Lee, Huan-Fang

Nurses' safety practices of medication administration, prevention of falls and unplanned extubations, and handover are essentials to patient safety. This study explored the prediction between such safety practices and work environment factors, workload, job satisfaction, and error-reporting culture of 1429 Taiwanese nurses. Nurses' job satisfaction, error-reporting culture, and one environmental factor of nursing quality were found to be major predictors of safety practices. The other environment factors related to professional development and participation in hospital affairs and nurses' workload had limited predictive effects on the safety practices. Increasing nurses' attention to patient safety by improving these predictors is recommended.

The Safety and Predictability of Implanting Autologous Lenticule Obtained by SMILE for Hyperopia.

PubMed

Sun, Ling; Yao, Peijun; Li, Meiyan; Shen, Yang; Zhao, Jing; Zhou, Xingtao

2015-06-01

To evaluate the safety, effectiveness, stability, and predictability of implanting autologous lenticules obtained from small incision lenticule extraction for the treatment of hyperopia. Five patients (10 eyes) with one myopic eye and one hyperopic eye were enrolled. The myopic eye was treated with small incision lenticule extraction; a lenticule was extracted and subsequently implanted in the hyperopic eye. Follow-up was at 1 day, 1, 3, 6, and 9 months, and 1 year postoperatively. Patients received a complete ophthalmologic examination at each visit, including uncorrected distance visual acuity, corrected distance visual acuity, anterior segment optical coherence tomography, and corneal topography. There were no complications in any eye during follow-up. Compared with preoperative levels, at the last follow-up visit the eyes with lenticule implantation showed mean spherical equivalent reduced by 5.53 diopters (residual spherical equivalent was +1.13 to -2.63 diopters), mean uncorrected distance visual acuity increased approximately two lines (approximately 20/63 to 20/40 Snellen), and corrected distance visual acuity in 4 (80%) eyes gained one line, 2 (40%) eyes gained two lines, and 1 (20%) eye gained more than two lines. There was no significant difference (P > .05) in spherical equivalent compared with 1 day postoperatively and the last follow-up visit. Corneal topography showed that the lenticule was uniform and located well; anterior segment optical coherence tomography images showed that the lenticule was transparent and the demarcation line was visible. Implanting an autologous lenticule obtained by small incision lenticule extraction for hyperopia might be safe, effective, and stable, but its predictability should be improved in the future. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

Degradation trend estimation of slewing bearing based on LSSVM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Chao; Chen, Jie; Hong, Rongjing; Feng, Yang; Li, Yuanyuan

2016-08-01

A novel prediction method is proposed based on least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) to estimate the slewing bearing's degradation trend with small sample data. This method chooses the vibration signal which contains rich state information as the object of the study. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to fuse multi-feature vectors which could reflect the health state of slewing bearing, such as root mean square, kurtosis, wavelet energy entropy, and intrinsic mode function (IMF) energy. The degradation indicator fused by PCA can reflect the degradation more comprehensively and effectively. Then the degradation trend of slewing bearing was predicted by using the LSSVM model optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO). The proposed method was demonstrated to be more accurate and effective by the whole life experiment of slewing bearing. Therefore, it can be applied in engineering practice.

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

2017-10-01

This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

[New international initiatives to create systems of effective risk prediction and food safety].

PubMed

Efimochkinal, N R; Bagryantseva, E C; Dupouy, E C; Khotimchenko, S A; Permyakov, E V; Sheveleva, S A; Arnautov, O V

2016-01-01

Ensuring food safety is one of the most important problems that is directly related to health protection of the population. The problem is particularly relevant on aglobalscale because ofincreasingnumberoffood-borne diseases andimportance of the health consequence early detection. In accordance with the position of the Codex Alimentarius Commission, food safety concept also includes quality. In this case, creation of the national, supranational and international early warning systems related to the food safety, designed with the purpose to prevent or minimize risks on different stages of the food value chain in various countries, regions and climate zones specific to national nutrition and lifestyle in different groups of population, gains particular importance. The article describes the principles and working examples of international, supranational and national food safety early warning systems. Great importance is given to the hazards of microbial origin - emergent pathogens. Example of the rapid reaction to the appearance of cases, related to the melanin presence in infant formula, are presented. Analysis of the current food safety and quality control system in Russian Federation shows that main improvements are mostly related to the development of the efficient monitoring, diagnostics and rapid alert procedures forfood safety on interregional and international levels that will allow to estimate real contamination of food with the most dangerous pathogens, chemical and biological contaminants, and the development of the electronic database and scientifically proved algorithms for food safety and quality management for targeted prevention activities against existing and emerging microbiological and other etiology risks, and public health protection.

Constantly evolving safety assessment protocols for GM foods.

PubMed

Sesikeran, B; Vasanthi, Siruguri

2008-01-01

he introduction of GM foods has led to the evolution of a food safety assessment paradigm that establishes safety of the GM food relative to its conventional counterpart. The GM foods currently approved and marketed in several countries have undergone extensive safety testing under a structured safety assessment framework evolved by international organizations like FAO, WHO, Codex and OECD. The major elements of safety assessment include molecular characterization of inserted genes and stability of the trait, toxicity and allergenicity potential of the expressed substances, compositional analysis, potential for gene transfer to gut microflora and unintentional effects of the genetic modification. As more number and type of food crops are being brought under the genetic modification regime, the adequacy of existing safety assessment protocols for establishing safety of these foods has been questioned. Such crops comprise GM crops with higher agronomic vigour, nutritional or health benefit/ by modification of plant metabolic pathways and those expressing bioactive substances and pharmaceuticals. The safety assessment challenges of these foods are the potential of the methods to detect unintentional effects with higher sensitivity and rigor. Development of databases on food compositions, toxicants and allergens is currently seen as an important aid to development of safety protocols. With the changing global trends in genetic modification technology future challenge would be to develop GM crops with minimum amount of inserted foreign DNA so as to reduce the burden of complex safety assessments while ensuring safety and utility of the technology.

Forecasting state-level premature deaths from alcohol, drugs, and suicides using Google Trends data.

PubMed

Parker, Jason; Cuthbertson, Courtney; Loveridge, Scott; Skidmore, Mark; Dyar, Will

2017-04-15

Vital statistics on the number of, alcohol-induced death (AICD) drug-induced death (DICD), and suicides at the local-level are only available after a substantial lag of up to two years after the events occur. We (1) investigate how well Google Trends search data explain variation in state-level rates in the US, and (2) use this method to forecast these rates of death for 2015 as official data are not yet available. We tested the degree to which Google Trends data on 27 terms can be fit to CDC data using L 1 -regularization on AICD, DICD, and suicide. Using Google Trends data, we forecast 2015 AICD, DICD, and suicide rates. L 1 -regularization fit the pre-2015 data much better than the alternative model using state-level unemployment and income variables. Google Trends data account for substantial variation in growth of state-level rates of death: 30.9% for AICD, 23.9% for DICD, and 21.8% for suicide rates. Every state except Hawaii is forecasted to increase in all three of these rates in 2015. The model predicts state, not local or individual behavior, and is dependent on continued availability of Google Trends data. The method predicts state-level AICD, DICD, and suicide rates better than the alternative model. The study findings suggest that this methodology can be developed into a public health surveillance system for behavioral health-related causes of death. State-level predictions could be used to inform state interventions aimed at reducing AICD, DICD, and suicide. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Modelling safety of multistate systems with ageing components

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kołowrocki, Krzysztof; Soszyńska-Budny, Joanna

An innovative approach to safety analysis of multistate ageing systems is presented. Basic notions of the ageing multistate systems safety analysis are introduced. The system components and the system multistate safety functions are defined. The mean values and variances of the multistate systems lifetimes in the safety state subsets and the mean values of their lifetimes in the particular safety states are defined. The multi-state system risk function and the moment of exceeding by the system the critical safety state are introduced. Applications of the proposed multistate system safety models to the evaluation and prediction of the safty characteristics ofmore » the consecutive “m out of n: F” is presented as well.« less

Predicting clicks of PubMed articles.

PubMed

Mao, Yuqing; Lu, Zhiyong

2013-01-01

Predicting the popularity or access usage of an article has the potential to improve the quality of PubMed searches. We can model the click trend of each article as its access changes over time by mining the PubMed query logs, which contain the previous access history for all articles. In this article, we examine the access patterns produced by PubMed users in two years (July 2009 to July 2011). We explore the time series of accesses for each article in the query logs, model the trends with regression approaches, and subsequently use the models for prediction. We show that the click trends of PubMed articles are best fitted with a log-normal regression model. This model allows the number of accesses an article receives and the time since it first becomes available in PubMed to be related via quadratic and logistic functions, with the model parameters to be estimated via maximum likelihood. Our experiments predicting the number of accesses for an article based on its past usage demonstrate that the mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error of our model are 4.0% and 8.1% lower than the power-law regression model, respectively. The log-normal distribution is also shown to perform significantly better than a previous prediction method based on a human memory theory in cognitive science. This work warrants further investigation on the utility of such a log-normal regression approach towards improving information access in PubMed.

Assessment of occupational safety risks in Floridian solid waste systems using Bayesian analysis.

PubMed

Bastani, Mehrad; Celik, Nurcin

2015-10-01

Safety risks embedded within solid waste management systems continue to be a significant issue and are prevalent at every step in the solid waste management process. To recognise and address these occupational hazards, it is necessary to discover the potential safety concerns that cause them, as well as their direct and/or indirect impacts on the different types of solid waste workers. In this research, our goal is to statistically assess occupational safety risks to solid waste workers in the state of Florida. Here, we first review the related standard industrial codes to major solid waste management methods including recycling, incineration, landfilling, and composting. Then, a quantitative assessment of major risks is conducted based on the data collected using a Bayesian data analysis and predictive methods. The risks estimated in this study for the period of 2005-2012 are then compared with historical statistics (1993-1997) from previous assessment studies. The results have shown that the injury rates among refuse collectors in both musculoskeletal and dermal injuries have decreased from 88 and 15 to 16 and three injuries per 1000 workers, respectively. However, a contrasting trend is observed for the injury rates among recycling workers, for whom musculoskeletal and dermal injuries have increased from 13 and four injuries to 14 and six injuries per 1000 workers, respectively. Lastly, a linear regression model has been proposed to identify major elements of the high number of musculoskeletal and dermal injuries. © The Author(s) 2015.

Time series modeling in traffic safety research.

PubMed

Lavrenz, Steven M; Vlahogianni, Eleni I; Gkritza, Konstantina; Ke, Yue

2018-08-01

The use of statistical models for analyzing traffic safety (crash) data has been well-established. However, time series techniques have traditionally been underrepresented in the corresponding literature, due to challenges in data collection, along with a limited knowledge of proper methodology. In recent years, new types of high-resolution traffic safety data, especially in measuring driver behavior, have made time series modeling techniques an increasingly salient topic of study. Yet there remains a dearth of information to guide analysts in their use. This paper provides an overview of the state of the art in using time series models in traffic safety research, and discusses some of the fundamental techniques and considerations in classic time series modeling. It also presents ongoing and future opportunities for expanding the use of time series models, and explores newer modeling techniques, including computational intelligence models, which hold promise in effectively handling ever-larger data sets. The information contained herein is meant to guide safety researchers in understanding this broad area of transportation data analysis, and provide a framework for understanding safety trends that can influence policy-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social Indicators, 1973. Selected Statistics on Social Conditions and Trends in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Office of Management and Budget, Washington, DC. Statistical Policy Div.

The book contains statistics selected and organized to describe social conditions and trends in the United States. Most of the data was compiled through Federal Government surveys. The following eight major social areas are examined: health, public safety, education, employment income, housing, leisure and recreation, and population. Within each…

Trends of jet fuel demand and properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, R.

1984-01-01

Petroleum industry forecasts predict an increasing demand for jet fuels, a decrease in the gasoline-to-distillate (heavier fuel) demand ratio, and a greater influx of poorer quality petroleum in the next two to three decades. These projections are important for refinery product analyses. The forecasts have not been accurate, however, in predicting the recent, short term fluctuations in jet fuel and competing product demand. Changes in petroleum quality can be assessed, in part, by a review of jet fuel property inspections. Surveys covering the last 10 years show that average jet fuel freezing points, aromatic contents, and smoke points have trends toward their specification limits.

The collection of national trend data on alcohol related crashes for comparison with alcohol safety action projects results. Volume 1, National trend sample

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-07-01

To study the national trend in alcohol-related crashes, a sample of 14 states was selected, and monthly accident data were collected for each state for the years 1965 through 1975. Surrogate measures for alcohol-related crashes were chosen on the bas...

Unions, Health and Safety Committees, and Workplace Accidents in the Korean Manufacturing Sector.

PubMed

Kim, Woo-Yung; Cho, Hm-Hak

2016-06-01

Despite the declining trend of workplace accidents in Republic of Korea, its level is still quite high compared with that in other developed countries. Factors that are responsible for high workplace accidents have not been well documented in Republic of Korea. The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects of unions and health and safety committees on workplace accidents in Korean manufacturing firms. We also allow for the interactions between unions and health and safety committees in the analysis. The results obtained in this paper will not only contribute to the literature in this field, but might also be useful for employers and worker representatives who are trying to find an effective way to reduce workplace accidents. This paper utilizes the 2012 Occupational Safety and Health Trend Survey data, which is a unique data set providing information on workplace injuries and illness as well as other characteristics of participatory firms, representative of the manufacturing industry in Republic of Korea. In estimating the effects of unions and health and safety committees, we build a negative binomial regression model in which the interactions between unions and health and safety committees are permissible in reducing workplace accidents. Health and safety committees were found to reduce the incidence of accidents whereas unionized establishments have higher incidence of accidents than nonunionized establishments. We also found that health and safety committees can more effectively reduce accidents in nonunionized establishments. By contrast, nonexclusive joint committees can more effectively reduce accidents in unionized establishments.

HISTORICAL EMISSION AND OZONE TRENDS IN THE HOUSTON AREA

EPA Science Inventory

An analysis of historical trend data for emissions and air quality in Houston for period of 1974-78 is conducted for the purposes of checking the EKMA O3-predicting model and of exploring empirical relations between emission changes and O3 air quality in the Houston area. Results...

Patient safety in the rehabilitation of children with spinal cord injuries, spina bifida, neuromuscular disorders, and amputations.

PubMed

Cancel, David; Capoor, Jaishree

2012-05-01

Pediatric patient safety continues to challenge both pediatricians and pediatric physiatrists. While there is a trend toward developing general patient safety initiatives, there is little research on pediatric patient safety. This article identifies major areas of general safety risk, with a focus on timely diagnosis and care coordination to prevent secondary complications that compromise health, function, and quality of life in pediatric neuromuscular disease, spinal cord disorders, and amputation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Safety and predictability of conscious sedation in dentistry -- a multi-centre regional audit: South and West Wales experience.

PubMed

Muthukrishnan, A; McGregor, J; Thompson, S

2013-10-01

There are no previously published reports of audits in conscious sedation from a group comprising the general dental services (GDS), community dental services (CDS) and hospital dental services (HDS). The main aim of this audit was to assess current practice within the group in relation to the safety and predictability of dental treatment undertaken with the aid of conscious sedation. A total of nine centres collected data prospectively on 1,037 sedation episodes over the course of one year. Audit standards were locally agreed based on current evidence and local experience. They were set at a completion rate of 90% and an adverse incident rate of 2% or less. Based on the data collected, a completion rate of 92% and a minor adverse incident rate of 2.6% were recorded. The participating centres met the standards set locally for this audit. Current practice in the participating centres was found to be safe and predictable. The audit tool is being refined to improve the quality of data collection. Further research and service evaluation is recommended.

Instructional Time Trends. Education Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Julie Rowland

2015-01-01

For more than 30 years, Education Commission of the States has tracked instructional time and frequently receives requests for information about policies and trends. In this Education Trends report, Education Commission of the States addresses some of the more frequent questions, including the impact of instructional time on achievement, variation…

Predicting Circulatory Diseases from Psychosocial Safety Climate: A Prospective Cohort Study from Australia

PubMed Central

Becher, Harry; Dollard, Maureen F.; Smith, Peter

2018-01-01

Circulatory diseases (CDs) (including myocardial infarction, angina, stroke or hypertension) are among the leading causes of death in the world. In this paper, we explore for the first time the impact of a specific aspect of organizational climate, Psychosocial Safety Climate (PSC), on CDs. We used two waves of interview data from Australia, with an average lag of 5 years (excluding baseline CDs, final n = 1223). Logistic regression was conducted to estimate the prospective associations between PSC at baseline on incident CDs at follow-up. It was found that participants in low PSC environments were 59% more likely to develop new CD than those in high PSC environments. Logistic regression showed that high PSC at baseline predicts lower CD risk at follow-up (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.96–1.00) and this risk remained unchanged even after additional adjustment for known job design risk factors (effort reward imbalance and job strain). These results suggest that PSC is an independent risk factor for CDs in Australia. Beyond job design this study implicates organizational climate and prevailing management values regarding worker psychological health as the genesis of CDs. PMID:29495533

An empirical tool to evaluate the safety of cyclists: Community based, macro-level collision prediction models using negative binomial regression.

PubMed

Wei, Feng; Lovegrove, Gordon

2013-12-01

Today, North American governments are more willing to consider compact neighborhoods with increased use of sustainable transportation modes. Bicycling, one of the most effective modes for short trips with distances less than 5km is being encouraged. However, as vulnerable road users (VRUs), cyclists are more likely to be injured when involved in collisions. In order to create a safe road environment for them, evaluating cyclists' road safety at a macro level in a proactive way is necessary. In this paper, different generalized linear regression methods for collision prediction model (CPM) development are reviewed and previous studies on micro-level and macro-level bicycle-related CPMs are summarized. On the basis of insights gained in the exploration stage, this paper also reports on efforts to develop negative binomial models for bicycle-auto collisions at a community-based, macro-level. Data came from the Central Okanagan Regional District (CORD), of British Columbia, Canada. The model results revealed two types of statistical associations between collisions and each explanatory variable: (1) An increase in bicycle-auto collisions is associated with an increase in total lane kilometers (TLKM), bicycle lane kilometers (BLKM), bus stops (BS), traffic signals (SIG), intersection density (INTD), and arterial-local intersection percentage (IALP). (2) A decrease in bicycle collisions was found to be associated with an increase in the number of drive commuters (DRIVE), and in the percentage of drive commuters (DRP). These results support our hypothesis that in North America, with its current low levels of bicycle use (<4%), we can initially expect to see an increase in bicycle collisions as cycle mode share increases. However, as bicycle mode share increases beyond some unknown 'critical' level, our hypothesis also predicts a net safety improvement. To test this hypothesis and to further explore the statistical relationships between bicycle mode split and overall road

Naturalistic distraction and driving safety in older drivers

PubMed Central

Aksan, Nazan; Dawson, Jeffrey D.; Emerson, Jamie L.; Yu, Lixi; Uc, Ergun Y.; Anderson, Steven W.; Rizzo, Matthew

2013-01-01

Objective This study aimed to quantify and compare performance of middle-aged and older drivers during a naturalistic distraction paradigm (visual search for roadside targets) and predict older driver performance given functioning in visual, motor, and cognitive domains. Background Distracted driving can imperil healthy adults and may disproportionally affect the safety of older drivers with visual, motor, and cognitive decline. Methods Two hundred and three drivers, 120 healthy older (61 men and 59 women, ages 65 years or greater) and 83 middle-aged drivers (38 men and 45 women, ages 40–64 years), participated in an on-road test in an instrumented vehicle. Outcome measures included performance in roadside target identification (traffic signs and restaurants) and concurrent driver safety. Differences in visual, motor, and cognitive functioning served as predictors. Results Older drivers identified fewer landmarks and drove slower but committed more safety errors than middle-aged drivers. Greater familiarity with local roads benefited performance of middle-aged but not older drivers. Visual cognition predicted both traffic sign identification and safety errors while executive function predicted traffic sign identification over and above vision. Conclusion Older adults are susceptible to driving safety errors while distracted by common secondary visual search tasks that are inherent to driving. The findings underscore that age-related cognitive decline affects older driver management of driving tasks at multiple levels, and can help inform the design of on-road tests and interventions for older drivers. PMID:23964422

Naturalistic distraction and driving safety in older drivers.

PubMed

Aksan, Nazan; Dawson, Jeffrey D; Emerson, Jamie L; Yu, Lixi; Uc, Ergun Y; Anderson, Steven W; Rizzo, Matthew

2013-08-01

In this study, we aimed to quantify and compare performance of middle-aged and older drivers during a naturalistic distraction paradigm (visual search for roadside targets) and to predict older drivers performance given functioning in visual, motor, and cognitive domains. Distracted driving can imperil healthy adults and may disproportionally affect the safety of older drivers with visual, motor, and cognitive decline. A total of 203 drivers, 120 healthy older (61 men and 59 women, ages 65 years and older) and 83 middle-aged drivers (38 men and 45 women, ages 40 to 64 years), participated in an on-road test in an instrumented vehicle. Outcome measures included performance in roadside target identification (traffic signs and restaurants) and concurrent driver safety. Differences in visual, motor, and cognitive functioning served as predictors. Older drivers identified fewer landmarks and drove slower but committed more safety errors than did middle-aged drivers. Greater familiarity with local roads benefited performance of middle-aged but not older drivers.Visual cognition predicted both traffic sign identification and safety errors, and executive function predicted traffic sign identification over and above vision. Older adults are susceptible to driving safety errors while distracted by common secondary visual search tasks that are inherent to driving. The findings underscore that age-related cognitive decline affects older drivers' management of driving tasks at multiple levels and can help inform the design of on-road tests and interventions for older drivers.

Applications for predictive microbiology to food packaging

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Predictive microbiology has been used for several years in the food industry to predict microbial growth, inactivation and survival. Predictive models provide a useful tool in risk assessment, HACCP set-up and GMP for the food industry to enhance microbial food safety. This report introduces the c...

Two-dimensional orthonormal trend surfaces for prospecting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarma, D. D.; Selvaraj, J. B.

Orthonormal polynomials have distinct advantages over conventional polynomials: the equations for evaluating trend coefficients are not ill-conditioned and the convergence power of this method is greater compared to the least-squares approximation and therefore the approach by orthonormal functions provides a powerful alternative to the least-squares method. In this paper, orthonormal polynomials in two dimensions are obtained using the Gram-Schmidt method for a polynomial series of the type: Z = 1 + x + y + x2 + xy + y2 + … + yn, where x and y are the locational coordinates and Z is the value of the variable under consideration. Trend-surface analysis, which has wide applications in prospecting, has been carried out using the orthonormal polynomial approach for two sample sets of data from India concerned with gold accumulation from the Kolar Gold Field, and gravity data. A comparison of the orthonormal polynomial trend surfaces with those obtained by the classical least-squares method has been made for the two data sets. In both the situations, the orthonormal polynomial surfaces gave an improved fit to the data. A flowchart and a FORTRAN-IV computer program for deriving orthonormal polynomials of any order and for using them to fit trend surfaces is included. The program has provision for logarithmic transformation of the Z variable. If log-transformation is performed the predicted Z values are reconverted to the original units and the trend-surface map generated for use. The illustration of gold assay data related to the Champion lode system of Kolar Gold Fields, for which a 9th-degree orthonormal trend surface was fit, could be used for further prospecting the area.

Psychometrics of the AAN Caregiver Driving Safety Questionnaire and contributors to caregiver concern about driving safety in older adults.

PubMed

Carvalho, Janessa O; Springate, Beth; Bernier, Rachel A; Davis, Jennifer

2018-03-01

ABSTRACTBackground:The American Academy of Neurology (AAN) updated their practice parameters in the evaluation of driving risk in dementia and developed a Caregiver Driving Safety Questionnaire, detailed in their original manuscript (Iverson Gronseth, Reger, Classen, Dubinsky, & Rizzo, 2010). They described four factors associated with decreased driving ability in dementia patients: history of crashes or citations, informant-reported concerns, reduced mileage, and aggressive driving. An informant-reported AAN Caregiver Driving Safety Questionnaire was designed with these elements, and the current study was the first to explore the factor structure of this questionnaire. Additionally, we examined associations between these factors and cognitive and behavioral measures in patients with mild cognitive impairment or early Alzheimer's disease and their informants. Exploratory factor analysis revealed a four-component structure, consistent with the theory behind the AAN scale composition. These four factor scores also were significantly associated with performance on cognitive screening instruments and informant reported behavioral dysfunction. Regressions revealed that behavioral dysfunction predicted caregiver concerns about driving safety beyond objective patient cognitive dysfunction. In this first known quantitative exploration of the scale, our results support continued use of this scale in office driving safety assessments. Additionally, patient behavioral changes predicted caregiver concerns about driving safety over and above cognitive status, which suggests that caregivers may benefit from psychoeducation about cognitive factors that may negatively impact driving safety.

Hospital safety climate surveys: measurement issues.

PubMed

Jackson, Jeanette; Sarac, Cakil; Flin, Rhona

2010-12-01

Organizational safety culture relates to behavioural norms in the workplace and is usually assessed by safety climate surveys. These can be a diagnostic indicator on the state of safety in a hospital. This review examines recent studies using staff surveys of hospital safety climate, focussing on measurement issues. Four questionnaires (hospital survey on patient safety culture, safety attitudes questionnaire, patient safety climate in healthcare organizations, hospital safety climate scale), with acceptable psychometric properties, are now applied across countries and clinical settings. Comparisons for benchmarking must be made with caution in case of questionnaire modifications. Increasing attention is being paid to the unit and hospital level wherein distinct cultures may be located, as well as to associated measurement and study design issues. Predictive validity of safety climate is tested against safety behaviours/outcomes, with some relationships reported, although effects may be specific to professional groups/units. Few studies test the role of intervening variables that could influence the effect of climate on outcomes. Hospital climate studies are becoming a key component of healthcare safety management systems. Large datasets have established more reliable instruments that allow a more focussed investigation of the role of culture in the improvement and maintenance of staff's safety perceptions within units, as well as within hospitals.

The elements of a commercial human spaceflight safety reporting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, Ian

2017-10-01

In its report on the SpaceShipTwo accident the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) included in its recommendations that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ;in collaboration with the commercial spaceflight industry, continue work to implement a database of lessons learned from commercial space mishap investigations and encourage commercial space industry members to voluntarily submit lessons learned.; In its official response to the NTSB the FAA supported this recommendation and indicated it has initiated an iterative process to put into place a framework for a cooperative safety data sharing process including the sharing of lessons learned, and trends analysis. Such a framework is an important element of an overall commercial human spaceflight safety system.

A mediation model linking dispatcher leadership and work ownership with safety climate as predictors of truck driver safety performance.

PubMed

Zohar, Dov; Huang, Yueng-hsiang; Lee, Jin; Robertson, Michelle

2014-01-01

The study was designed to test the effect of safety climate on safety behavior among lone employees whose work environment promotes individual rather than consensual or shared climate perceptions. The paper presents a mediation path model linking psychological (individual-level) safety climate antecedents and consequences as predictors of driving safety of long-haul truck drivers. Climate antecedents included dispatcher (distant) leadership and driver work ownership, two contextual attributes of lone work, whereas its proximal consequence included driving safety. Using a prospective design, safety outcomes, consisting of hard-braking frequency (i.e. traffic near-miss events) were collected six months after survey completion, using GPS-based truck deceleration data. Results supported the hypothesized model, indicating that distant leadership style and work ownership promote psychological safety climate perceptions, with subsequent prediction of hard-braking events mediated by driving safety. Theoretical and practical implications for studying safety climate among lone workers in general and professional drivers in particular are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long terms trends in CD4+ cell counts, CD8+ cell counts, and the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio

PubMed Central

Hughes, Rachael A.; May, Margaret T.; Tilling, Kate; Taylor, Ninon; Wittkop, Linda; Reiss, Peter; Gill, John; Schommers, Philipp; Costagliola, Dominique; Guest, Jodie L.; Lima, Viviane D.; d’Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Smith, Colette; Cavassini, Matthias; Saag, Michael; Castilho, Jessica L.; Sterne, Jonathan A.C.

2018-01-01

Objective: Model trajectories of CD4+ and CD8+ cell counts after starting combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) and use the model to predict trends in these counts and the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio. Design: Cohort study of antiretroviral-naïve HIV-positive adults who started ART after 1997 (ART Cohort Collaboration) with more than 6 months of follow-up data. Methods: We jointly estimated CD4+ and CD8+ cell count trends and their correlation using a bivariate random effects model, with linear splines describing their population trends, and predicted the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio trend from this model. We assessed whether CD4+ and CD8+ cell count trends and the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio trend varied according to CD4+ cell count at start of ART (baseline), and, whether these trends differed in patients with and without virological failure more than 6 months after starting ART. Results: A total of 39 979 patients were included (median follow-up was 53 months). Among patients with baseline CD4+ cell count at least 50 cells/μl, predicted mean CD8+ cell counts continued to decrease between 3 and 15 years post-ART, partly driving increases in the predicted mean CD4+ : CD8+ ratio. During 15 years of follow-up, normalization of the predicted mean CD4+ : CD8+ ratio (to >1) was only observed among patients with baseline CD4+ cell count at least 200 cells/μl. A higher baseline CD4+ cell count predicted a shorter time to normalization. Conclusion: Declines in CD8+ cell count and increases in CD4+ : CD8+ ratio occurred up to 15 years after starting ART. The likelihood of normalization of the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio is strongly related to baseline CD4+ cell count. PMID:29851663

Predictors of driving safety in early Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Dawson, J D; Anderson, S W; Uc, E Y; Dastrup, E; Rizzo, M

2009-02-10

To measure the association of cognition, visual perception, and motor function with driving safety in Alzheimer disease (AD). Forty drivers with probable early AD (mean Mini-Mental State Examination score 26.5) and 115 elderly drivers without neurologic disease underwent a battery of cognitive, visual, and motor tests, and drove a standardized 35-mile route in urban and rural settings in an instrumented vehicle. A composite cognitive score (COGSTAT) was calculated for each subject based on eight neuropsychological tests. Driving safety errors were noted and classified by a driving expert based on video review. Drivers with AD committed an average of 42.0 safety errors/drive (SD = 12.8), compared to an average of 33.2 (SD = 12.2) for drivers without AD (p < 0.0001); the most common errors were lane violations. Increased age was predictive of errors, with a mean of 2.3 more errors per drive observed for each 5-year age increment. After adjustment for age and gender, COGSTAT was a significant predictor of safety errors in subjects with AD, with a 4.1 increase in safety errors observed for a 1 SD decrease in cognitive function. Significant increases in safety errors were also found in subjects with AD with poorer scores on Benton Visual Retention Test, Complex Figure Test-Copy, Trail Making Subtest-A, and the Functional Reach Test. Drivers with Alzheimer disease (AD) exhibit a range of performance on tests of cognition, vision, and motor skills. Since these tests provide additional predictive value of driving performance beyond diagnosis alone, clinicians may use these tests to help predict whether a patient with AD can safely operate a motor vehicle.

Inhibition of Fear by Learned Safety Signals: minisymposium review

PubMed Central

Fernando, Anushka B. P.; Kazama, Andy M.; Jovanovic, Tanja; Ostroff, Linnaea E.; Sangha, Susan

2012-01-01

Safety signals are learned cues that predict the non-occurrence of an aversive event. As such, safety signals are potent inhibitors of fear and stress responses. Investigations of safety signal learning have increased over the last few years due in part to the finding that traumatized persons are unable to utilize safety cues to inhibit fear, making it a clinically relevant phenotype. The goal of this review is to present recent advances relating to the neural and behavioral mechanisms of safety learning and expression in rodents, non-human primates and humans. PMID:23055481

National Machine Guarding Program: Part 2. Safety management in small metal fabrication enterprises.

PubMed

Parker, David L; Yamin, Samuel C; Brosseau, Lisa M; Xi, Min; Gordon, Robert; Most, Ivan G; Stanley, Rodney

2015-11-01

Small manufacturing businesses often lack important safety programs. Many reasons have been set forth on why this has remained a persistent problem. The National Machine Guarding Program (NMGP) was a nationwide intervention conducted in partnership with two workers' compensation insurers. Insurance safety consultants collected baseline data in 221 business using a 33-question safety management audit. Audits were completed during an interview with the business owner or manager. Most measures of safety management improved with an increasing number of employees. This trend was particularly strong for lockout/tagout. However, size was only significant for businesses without a safety committee. Establishments with a safety committee scored higher (55% vs. 36%) on the safety management audit compared with those lacking a committee (P < 0.0001). Critical safety management programs were frequently absent. A safety committee appears to be a more important factor than business size in accounting for differences in outcome measures. © 2015 The Authors. American Journal of Industrial Medicine Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Safety of novel projects, the battle against Murphy's law.

PubMed

Schmidt, R

2001-01-01

With great pleasure and respect I have accepted the offer to speak in this congress. Medicine was a dream for me sometime ago and my second choice for studies. I remained with my first choice engineering and I am still happy with it; but I never forgot my love and enthusiasm for medicine. My career brought me in contact with many countries and technologies, but the development towards safety management became a dominant trend. At CERN I am a Group Leader in Matters of Safety for the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment. In the last few years my attention has been increasingly focused on human and institutional safety aspects, besides the technical ones. My paper deals with three major topics: Safety management at CERN-CMS Murphy's law and the growing importance of institutional and human factors in safety Future outlook for safety and conclusions. In the conclusions the commonalities between different technologies become more evident as the importance of the human nature and man's role and enticement to actively and intelligently contribute to safety are presented. Based on experience and references an appeal is launched to pay more attention to the human factor in safety and recognize the rules and regularities of human behaviour in order to better combat Murphy's law.

A predictive control framework for torque-based steering assistance to improve safety in highway driving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, Ziya; Carvalho, Ashwin; Tseng, H. Eric; Gökaşan, Metin; Borrelli, Francesco

2018-05-01

Haptic shared control framework opens up new perspectives on the design and implementation of the driver steering assistance systems which provide torque feedback to the driver in order to improve safety. While designing such a system, it is important to account for the human-machine interactions since the driver feels the feedback torque through the hand wheel. The controller should consider the driver's impact on the steering dynamics to achieve a better performance in terms of driver's acceptance and comfort. In this paper we present a predictive control framework which uses a model of driver-in-the-loop steering dynamics to optimise the torque intervention with respect to the driver's neuromuscular response. We first validate the system in simulations to compare the performance of the controller in nominal and model mismatch cases. Then we implement the controller in a test vehicle and perform experiments with a human driver. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed system in avoiding hazardous situations under different driver behaviours.

Analysing Twitter and web queries for flu trend prediction.

PubMed

Santos, José Carlos; Matos, Sérgio

2014-05-07

Social media platforms encourage people to share diverse aspects of their daily life. Among these, shared health related information might be used to infer health status and incidence rates for specific conditions or symptoms. In this work, we present an infodemiology study that evaluates the use of Twitter messages and search engine query logs to estimate and predict the incidence rate of influenza like illness in Portugal. Based on a manually classified dataset of 2704 tweets from Portugal, we selected a set of 650 textual features to train a Naïve Bayes classifier to identify tweets mentioning flu or flu-like illness or symptoms. We obtained a precision of 0.78 and an F-measure of 0.83, based on cross validation over the complete annotated set. Furthermore, we trained a multiple linear regression model to estimate the health-monitoring data from the Influenzanet project, using as predictors the relative frequencies obtained from the tweet classification results and from query logs, and achieved a correlation ratio of 0.89 (p<0.001). These classification and regression models were also applied to estimate the flu incidence in the following flu season, achieving a correlation of 0.72. Previous studies addressing the estimation of disease incidence based on user-generated content have mostly focused on the english language. Our results further validate those studies and show that by changing the initial steps of data preprocessing and feature extraction and selection, the proposed approaches can be adapted to other languages. Additionally, we investigated whether the predictive model created can be applied to data from the subsequent flu season. In this case, although the prediction result was good, an initial phase to adapt the regression model could be necessary to achieve more robust results.

Comparison of NTF Experimental Data with CFD Predictions from the Third AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vassberg, John C.; Tinoco, Edward N.; Mani, Mori; Levy, David; Zickuhr, Tom; Mavriplis, Dimitri J.; Wahls, Richard A.; Morrison, Joseph H.; Brodersen, Olaf P.; Eisfeld, Bernhard;

Multi-decadal trends in global terrestrial evapotranspiration and its components

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yongqiang; Peña-Arancibia, Jorge L.; McVicar, Tim R.

In this study, evapotranspiration (ET) is the process by which liquid water becomes water vapor and energetically this accounts for much of incoming solar radiation. If this ET did not occur temperatures would be higher, so understanding ET trends is crucial to predict future temperatures. Recent studies have reported prolonged declines in ET in recent decades, although these declines may relate to climate variability. Here, we used a well-validated diagnostic model to estimate daily ET during 1981–2012, and its three components: transpiration from vegetation (E t), direct evaporation from the soil (E s) and vaporization of intercepted rainfall from vegetationmore » (E i). During this period, ET over land has increased significantly (p < 0.01), caused by increases in E t and E i, which are partially counteracted by E s decreasing. These contrasting trends are primarily driven by increases in vegetation leaf area index, dominated by greening. The overall increase in E t over land is about twofold of the decrease in E s. These opposing trends are not simulated by most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and highlight the importance of realistically representing vegetation changes in earth system models for predicting future changes in the energy and water cycle.« less

Multi-decadal trends in global terrestrial evapotranspiration and its components

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Yongqiang; Peña-Arancibia, Jorge L.; McVicar, Tim R.; ...

2016-01-11

In this study, evapotranspiration (ET) is the process by which liquid water becomes water vapor and energetically this accounts for much of incoming solar radiation. If this ET did not occur temperatures would be higher, so understanding ET trends is crucial to predict future temperatures. Recent studies have reported prolonged declines in ET in recent decades, although these declines may relate to climate variability. Here, we used a well-validated diagnostic model to estimate daily ET during 1981–2012, and its three components: transpiration from vegetation (E t), direct evaporation from the soil (E s) and vaporization of intercepted rainfall from vegetationmore » (E i). During this period, ET over land has increased significantly (p < 0.01), caused by increases in E t and E i, which are partially counteracted by E s decreasing. These contrasting trends are primarily driven by increases in vegetation leaf area index, dominated by greening. The overall increase in E t over land is about twofold of the decrease in E s. These opposing trends are not simulated by most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and highlight the importance of realistically representing vegetation changes in earth system models for predicting future changes in the energy and water cycle.« less

Predictive modeling of respiratory tumor motion for real-time prediction of baseline shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasubramanian, A.; Shamsuddin, R.; Prabhakaran, B.; Sawant, A.

2017-03-01

Baseline shifts in respiratory patterns can result in significant spatiotemporal changes in patient anatomy (compared to that captured during simulation), in turn, causing geometric and dosimetric errors in the administration of thoracic and abdominal radiotherapy. We propose predictive modeling of the tumor motion trajectories for predicting a baseline shift ahead of its occurrence. The key idea is to use the features of the tumor motion trajectory over a 1 min window, and predict the occurrence of a baseline shift in the 5 s that immediately follow (lookahead window). In this study, we explored a preliminary trend-based analysis with multi-class annotations as well as a more focused binary classification analysis. In both analyses, a number of different inter-fraction and intra-fraction training strategies were studied, both offline as well as online, along with data sufficiency and skew compensation for class imbalances. The performance of different training strategies were compared across multiple machine learning classification algorithms, including nearest neighbor, Naïve Bayes, linear discriminant and ensemble Adaboost. The prediction performance is evaluated using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall and the area under the curve (AUC) for repeater operating characteristics curve. The key results of the trend-based analysis indicate that (i) intra-fraction training strategies achieve highest prediction accuracies (90.5-91.4%) (ii) the predictive modeling yields lowest accuracies (50-60%) when the training data does not include any information from the test patient; (iii) the prediction latencies are as low as a few hundred milliseconds, and thus conducive for real-time prediction. The binary classification performance is promising, indicated by high AUCs (0.96-0.98). It also confirms the utility of prior data from previous patients, and also the necessity of training the classifier on some initial data from the new patient for reasonable

Predictive modeling of respiratory tumor motion for real-time prediction of baseline shifts.

PubMed

Balasubramanian, A; Shamsuddin, R; Prabhakaran, B; Sawant, A

2017-03-07

Baseline shifts in respiratory patterns can result in significant spatiotemporal changes in patient anatomy (compared to that captured during simulation), in turn, causing geometric and dosimetric errors in the administration of thoracic and abdominal radiotherapy. We propose predictive modeling of the tumor motion trajectories for predicting a baseline shift ahead of its occurrence. The key idea is to use the features of the tumor motion trajectory over a 1 min window, and predict the occurrence of a baseline shift in the 5 s that immediately follow (lookahead window). In this study, we explored a preliminary trend-based analysis with multi-class annotations as well as a more focused binary classification analysis. In both analyses, a number of different inter-fraction and intra-fraction training strategies were studied, both offline as well as online, along with data sufficiency and skew compensation for class imbalances. The performance of different training strategies were compared across multiple machine learning classification algorithms, including nearest neighbor, Naïve Bayes, linear discriminant and ensemble Adaboost. The prediction performance is evaluated using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall and the area under the curve (AUC) for repeater operating characteristics curve. The key results of the trend-based analysis indicate that (i) intra-fraction training strategies achieve highest prediction accuracies (90.5-91.4%); (ii) the predictive modeling yields lowest accuracies (50-60%) when the training data does not include any information from the test patient; (iii) the prediction latencies are as low as a few hundred milliseconds, and thus conducive for real-time prediction. The binary classification performance is promising, indicated by high AUCs (0.96-0.98). It also confirms the utility of prior data from previous patients, and also the necessity of training the classifier on some initial data from the new patient for reasonable

The Relationships Between the Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Yaping; Lau, William K.-M.

2017-01-01

This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio (AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions.

Epileptic seizure prediction by non-linear methods

DOEpatents

Hively, Lee M.; Clapp, Ned E.; Daw, C. Stuart; Lawkins, William F.

1999-01-01

Methods and apparatus for automatically predicting epileptic seizures monitor and analyze brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis tools; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; comparison of the trend to known seizure predictors; and providing notification that a seizure is forthcoming.

Accurate and dynamic predictive model for better prediction in medicine and healthcare.

PubMed

Alanazi, H O; Abdullah, A H; Qureshi, K N; Ismail, A S

2018-05-01

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have changed the trend into new integrated operations and methods in all fields of life. The health sector has also adopted new technologies to improve the systems and provide better services to customers. Predictive models in health care are also influenced from new technologies to predict the different disease outcomes. However, still, existing predictive models have suffered from some limitations in terms of predictive outcomes performance. In order to improve predictive model performance, this paper proposed a predictive model by classifying the disease predictions into different categories. To achieve this model performance, this paper uses traumatic brain injury (TBI) datasets. TBI is one of the serious diseases worldwide and needs more attention due to its seriousness and serious impacts on human life. The proposed predictive model improves the predictive performance of TBI. The TBI data set is developed and approved by neurologists to set its features. The experiment results show that the proposed model has achieved significant results including accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

Using conditional probability to identify trends in intra-day high-frequency equity pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rechenthin, Michael; Street, W. Nick

2013-12-01

By examining the conditional probabilities of price movements in a popular US stock over different high-frequency intra-day timespans, varying levels of trend predictability are identified. This study demonstrates the existence of predictable short-term trends in the market; understanding the probability of price movement can be useful to high-frequency traders. Price movement was examined in trade-by-trade (tick) data along with temporal timespans between 1 s to 30 min for 52 one-week periods for one highly-traded stock. We hypothesize that much of the initial predictability of trade-by-trade (tick) data is due to traditional market dynamics, or the bouncing of the price between the stock’s bid and ask. Only after timespans of between 5 to 10 s does this cease to explain the predictability; after this timespan, two consecutive movements in the same direction occur with higher probability than that of movements in the opposite direction. This pattern holds up to a one-minute interval, after which the strength of the pattern weakens.

Trends in pharmacy staff's perception of patient safety in Swedish community pharmacies after re-regulation of conditions.

PubMed

Kälvemark Sporrong, Sofia; Nordén-Hägg, Annika

2014-10-01

All changes in the regulation of pharmacies have an impact on the work carried out in pharmacies and also on patient safety, regardless of whether this is the intention or not. To compare staff apprehension regarding some aspects of patient safety and quality in community pharmacies prior to and after the 2009 changes in regulation of the Swedish community pharmacy market. Questionnaires targeted at pharmacy staff before and after the changes in regulation (in 2008, 2011/12, and 2012/13 respectively) used four identical items, making comparisons of some aspects possible. All four items demonstrated a significant decrease in the first survey after the changes as compared to before. In the second survey significant differences were found on the two items representing safety climate whereas the items representing team climate and management showed no significant differences. The comparison carried out in this study indicates a negative effect in Swedish community pharmacies on safety and quality issues, as experienced by pharmacy staff. It is recommended that the possible effects of healthcare reforms are assessed before implementation, in order to counteract conceivable decline in factors including patient safety and working conditions.

Predicting clicks of PubMed articles

PubMed Central

Mao, Yuqing; Lu, Zhiyong

2013-01-01

Predicting the popularity or access usage of an article has the potential to improve the quality of PubMed searches. We can model the click trend of each article as its access changes over time by mining the PubMed query logs, which contain the previous access history for all articles. In this article, we examine the access patterns produced by PubMed users in two years (July 2009 to July 2011). We explore the time series of accesses for each article in the query logs, model the trends with regression approaches, and subsequently use the models for prediction. We show that the click trends of PubMed articles are best fitted with a log-normal regression model. This model allows the number of accesses an article receives and the time since it first becomes available in PubMed to be related via quadratic and logistic functions, with the model parameters to be estimated via maximum likelihood. Our experiments predicting the number of accesses for an article based on its past usage demonstrate that the mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error of our model are 4.0% and 8.1% lower than the power-law regression model, respectively. The log-normal distribution is also shown to perform significantly better than a previous prediction method based on a human memory theory in cognitive science. This work warrants further investigation on the utility of such a log-normal regression approach towards improving information access in PubMed. PMID:24551386

Predictive Model of Systemic Toxicity (SOT)

EPA Science Inventory

In an effort to ensure chemical safety in light of regulatory advances away from reliance on animal testing, USEPA and L’Oréal have collaborated to develop a quantitative systemic toxicity prediction model. Prediction of human systemic toxicity has proved difficult and remains a ...

Groundwater level trends and drivers in two northern New England glacial aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shanley, James B.; Chalmers, Ann T.; Mack, Thomas J.; Smith, Thor E.; Harte, Philip T.

2016-01-01

We evaluated long-term trends and predictors of groundwater levels by month from two well-studied northern New England forested headwater glacial aquifers: Sleepers River, Vermont, 44 wells, 1992-2013; and Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire, 15 wells, 1979-2004. Based on Kendall Tau tests with Sen slope determination, a surprising number of well-month combinations had negative trends (decreasing water levels) over the respective periods. Sleepers River had slightly more positive than negative trends overall, but among the significant trends (p < 0.1), negative trends dominated 67 to 40. At Hubbard Brook, negative trends outnumbered positive trends by a nearly 2:1 margin and all seven of the significant trends were negative. The negative trends occurred despite generally increasing trends in monthly and annual precipitation. This counterintuitive pattern may be a result of increased precipitation intensity causing higher runoff at the expense of recharge, such that evapotranspiration demand draws down groundwater storage. We evaluated predictors of month-end water levels by multiple regression of 18 variables related to climate, streamflow, snowpack, and prior month water level. Monthly flow and prior month water level were the two strongest predictors for most months at both sites. The predictive power and ready availability of streamflow data can be exploited as a proxy to extend limited groundwater level records over longer time periods.

A strategy to establish Food Safety Model Repositories.

PubMed

Plaza-Rodríguez, C; Thoens, C; Falenski, A; Weiser, A A; Appel, B; Kaesbohrer, A; Filter, M

2015-07-02

Transferring the knowledge of predictive microbiology into real world food manufacturing applications is still a major challenge for the whole food safety modelling community. To facilitate this process, a strategy for creating open, community driven and web-based predictive microbial model repositories is proposed. These collaborative model resources could significantly improve the transfer of knowledge from research into commercial and governmental applications and also increase efficiency, transparency and usability of predictive models. To demonstrate the feasibility, predictive models of Salmonella in beef previously published in the scientific literature were re-implemented using an open source software tool called PMM-Lab. The models were made publicly available in a Food Safety Model Repository within the OpenML for Predictive Modelling in Food community project. Three different approaches were used to create new models in the model repositories: (1) all information relevant for model re-implementation is available in a scientific publication, (2) model parameters can be imported from tabular parameter collections and (3) models have to be generated from experimental data or primary model parameters. All three approaches were demonstrated in the paper. The sample Food Safety Model Repository is available via: http://sourceforge.net/projects/microbialmodelingexchange/files/models and the PMM-Lab software can be downloaded from http://sourceforge.net/projects/pmmlab/. This work also illustrates that a standardized information exchange format for predictive microbial models, as the key component of this strategy, could be established by adoption of resources from the Systems Biology domain. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Monitoring of non-cigarette tobacco use using Google Trends.

PubMed

Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A; Krauss, Melissa J; Spitznagel, Edward L; Lowery, Ashley; Grucza, Richard A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Bierut, Laura Jean

2015-05-01

Google Trends is an innovative monitoring system with unique potential to monitor and predict important phenomena that may be occurring at a population level. We sought to validate whether Google Trends can additionally detect regional trends in youth and adult tobacco use. We compared 2011 Google Trends relative search volume data for cigars, cigarillos, little cigars and smokeless tobacco with state prevalence of youth (grades 9-12) and adult (age 18 and older) use of these products using data from the 2011 United States state-level Youth Risk Behaviors Surveillance System and the 2010-2011 United States National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), respectively. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the associations. We found significant positive correlations between state Google Trends cigar relative search volume and prevalence of cigar use among youth (r=0.39, R(2) = 0.154, p=0.018) and adults (r=0.49, R(2) = 0.243, p<0.001). Similarly, we found that the correlations between state Google Trends smokeless tobacco relative search volume and prevalence of smokeless tobacco use among youth and adults were both positive and significant (r=0.46, R(2) = 0.209, p=0.003 and r=0.48, R(2) = 0.226, p<0.001, respectively). The results of this study validate that Google Trends has the potential to be a valuable monitoring tool for tobacco use. The near real-time monitoring features of Google Trends may complement traditional surveillance methods and lead to faster and more convenient monitoring of emerging trends in tobacco use. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Temporal trends in safety and complication rates of catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Muthalaly, Rahul G; John, Roy M; Schaeffer, Benjamin; Tanigawa, Shinichi; Nakamura, Tomofumi; Kapur, Sunil; Zei, Paul C; Epstein, Laurence M; Tedrow, Usha B; Michaud, Gregory F; Stevenson, William G; Koplan, Bruce A

2018-06-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation is increasingly common, but is associated with potential major complications. Technology, experience, and protocols have evolved significantly in recent times, and may have impacted procedural safety. We sought to compare AF ablation safety profiles, including complication rates and fluoroscopy times in a "modern" versus "historical" cohort. We evaluated consecutive patients undergoing AF ablation from a modern cohort (MC) from 2014 to 2015 and a historic cohort (HC) from 2009 to 2011 for complications. Major complications were categorized according to Heart Rhythm Society guidelines. We included 1,425 patients, 726 in the HC and 699 in the MC. The MC was older, had more OSA and less valvular AF. Fifty-two (3.5%) procedures suffered major complications across the cohorts, with significantly fewer in the MC (5.0% vs. 2.3%, P  =  0.007). The largest reductions were seen in vascular, hemorrhagic, ischemic stroke, and perforation/tamponade related complications. Periprocedural antiplatelets drugs (aHR 2.1 [95 CI 1.1-3.9], P  =  0.02) and force-sensing catheters (aHR 0.4 [95 CI 0.2-0.9], P  =  0.03) were independently related to major complication rates. Direct oral anticoagulants and uninterrupted anticoagulation were not associated with complications. There was a decrease in both fluoroscopy (-17.4 minutes [95 CI 19.2-15.6], P < 0.0001) and radiofrequency ablation times (-561 seconds [95CI -750 to -371], P < 0.0001). The safety profile of AF ablation has improved significantly in less than a decade. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An Approach for Validating Actinide and Fission Product Burnup Credit Criticality Safety Analyses--Criticality (keff) Predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scaglione, John M; Mueller, Don; Wagner, John C

2011-01-01

fission product LCE data to predict and verify individual biases for relevant minor actinides and fission products. This paper (1) provides a detailed description of the approach and its technical bases, (2) describes the application of the approach for representative pressurized water reactor and boiling water reactor safety analysis models to demonstrate its usage and applicability, (3) provides reference bias results based on the prerelease SCALE 6.1 code package and ENDF/B-VII nuclear cross-section data, and (4) provides recommendations for application of the results and methods to other code and data packages.« less

An Approach for Validating Actinide and Fission Product Burnup Credit Criticality Safety Analyses: Criticality (k eff) Predictions

DOE PAGES

Scaglione, John M.; Mueller, Don E.; Wagner, John C.

2014-12-01

One of the most important remaining challenges associated with expanded implementation of burnup credit in the United States is the validation of depletion and criticality calculations used in the safety evaluation—in particular, the availability and use of applicable measured data to support validation, especially for fission products (FPs). Applicants and regulatory reviewers have been constrained by both a scarcity of data and a lack of clear technical basis or approach for use of the data. In this study, this paper describes a validation approach for commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) criticality safety (k eff) evaluations based on best-available data andmore » methods and applies the approach for representative SNF storage and transport configurations/conditions to demonstrate its usage and applicability, as well as to provide reference bias results. The criticality validation approach utilizes not only available laboratory critical experiment (LCE) data from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments and the French Haut Taux de Combustion program to support validation of the principal actinides but also calculated sensitivities, nuclear data uncertainties, and limited available FP LCE data to predict and verify individual biases for relevant minor actinides and FPs. The results demonstrate that (a) sufficient critical experiment data exist to adequately validate k eff calculations via conventional validation approaches for the primary actinides, (b) sensitivity-based critical experiment selection is more appropriate for generating accurate application model bias and uncertainty, and (c) calculated sensitivities and nuclear data uncertainties can be used for generating conservative estimates of bias for minor actinides and FPs. Results based on the SCALE 6.1 and the ENDF/B-VII.0 cross-section libraries indicate that a conservative estimate of the bias for the minor actinides and FPs is 1.5% of their worth within the

Effect of censoring trace-level water-quality data on trend-detection capability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gilliom, R.J.; Hirsch, R.M.; Gilroy, E.J.

1984-01-01

Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate whether trace-level water-quality data that are routinely censored (not reported) contain valuable information for trend detection. Measurements are commonly censored if they fall below a level associated with some minimum acceptable level of reliability (detection limit). Trace-level organic data were simulated with best- and worst-case estimates of measurement uncertainty, various concentrations and degrees of linear trend, and different censoring rules. The resulting classes of data were subjected to a nonparametric statistical test for trend. For all classes of data evaluated, trends were most effectively detected in uncensored data as compared to censored data even when the data censored were highly unreliable. Thus, censoring data at any concentration level may eliminate valuable information. Whether or not valuable information for trend analysis is, in fact, eliminated by censoring of actual rather than simulated data depends on whether the analytical process is in statistical control and bias is predictable for a particular type of chemical analyses.

An Approach for Validating Actinide and Fission Product Burnup Credit Criticality Safety Analyses-Isotopic Composition Predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Radulescu, Georgeta; Gauld, Ian C; Ilas, Germina

2011-01-01

The expanded use of burnup credit in the United States (U.S.) for storage and transport casks, particularly in the acceptance of credit for fission products, has been constrained by the availability of experimental fission product data to support code validation. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff has noted that the rationale for restricting the Interim Staff Guidance on burnup credit for storage and transportation casks (ISG-8) to actinide-only is based largely on the lack of clear, definitive experiments that can be used to estimate the bias and uncertainty for computational analyses associated with using burnup credit. To address themore » issues of burnup credit criticality validation, the NRC initiated a project with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory to (1) develop and establish a technically sound validation approach for commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) criticality safety evaluations based on best-available data and methods and (2) apply the approach for representative SNF storage and transport configurations/conditions to demonstrate its usage and applicability, as well as to provide reference bias results. The purpose of this paper is to describe the isotopic composition (depletion) validation approach and resulting observations and recommendations. Validation of the criticality calculations is addressed in a companion paper at this conference. For isotopic composition validation, the approach is to determine burnup-dependent bias and uncertainty in the effective neutron multiplication factor (keff) due to bias and uncertainty in isotopic predictions, via comparisons of isotopic composition predictions (calculated) and measured isotopic compositions from destructive radiochemical assay utilizing as much assay data as is available, and a best-estimate Monte Carlo based method. This paper (1) provides a detailed description of the burnup credit isotopic validation approach and its technical bases, (2) describes the application of the

Patient safety in the clinical laboratory: a longitudinal analysis of specimen identification errors.

PubMed

Wagar, Elizabeth A; Tamashiro, Lorraine; Yasin, Bushra; Hilborne, Lee; Bruckner, David A

2006-11-01

Patient safety is an increasingly visible and important mission for clinical laboratories. Attention to improving processes related to patient identification and specimen labeling is being paid by accreditation and regulatory organizations because errors in these areas that jeopardize patient safety are common and avoidable through improvement in the total testing process. To assess patient identification and specimen labeling improvement after multiple implementation projects using longitudinal statistical tools. Specimen errors were categorized by a multidisciplinary health care team. Patient identification errors were grouped into 3 categories: (1) specimen/requisition mismatch, (2) unlabeled specimens, and (3) mislabeled specimens. Specimens with these types of identification errors were compared preimplementation and postimplementation for 3 patient safety projects: (1) reorganization of phlebotomy (4 months); (2) introduction of an electronic event reporting system (10 months); and (3) activation of an automated processing system (14 months) for a 24-month period, using trend analysis and Student t test statistics. Of 16,632 total specimen errors, mislabeled specimens, requisition mismatches, and unlabeled specimens represented 1.0%, 6.3%, and 4.6% of errors, respectively. Student t test showed a significant decrease in the most serious error, mislabeled specimens (P < .001) when compared to before implementation of the 3 patient safety projects. Trend analysis demonstrated decreases in all 3 error types for 26 months. Applying performance-improvement strategies that focus longitudinally on specimen labeling errors can significantly reduce errors, therefore improving patient safety. This is an important area in which laboratory professionals, working in interdisciplinary teams, can improve safety and outcomes of care.

The Design of Transportation Equipment in Terms of Human Capabilities. The Role of Engineering Psychology in Transport Safety.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McFarland, Ross A.

Human factors engineering is considered with regard to the design of safety factors for aviation and highway transportation equipment. Current trends and problem areas are identified for jet air transportation and for highway transportation. Suggested solutions to transportation safety problems are developed by applying the techniques of human…

Forecasting turning trends in knowledge networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szántó-Várnagy, Ádám; Farkas, Illés J.

2018-10-01

A large portion of our collective human knowledge is in electronic repositories. These repositories range from "hard fact" databases (e.g., scientific publications and patents) to "soft" knowledge such as news portals. The common denominator between them all is that they can be thought of in terms of topics/keywords. The interest in these topics is constantly changing over time. Their frequency occurrence diagrams can be used for effective prediction by the most straightforward simplification. In this paper, we use these diagrams to produce simple and human-readable rules that are able to predict the future trends of the most important keywords in 5 data sets of different types. A thorough analysis of the necessary input variables and parameters and their relation to the success rate is presented, as well.

Public perception of drinking water safety in South Africa 2002-2009: a repeated cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Wright, Jim A; Yang, Hong; Rivett, Ulrike; Gundry, Stephen W

2012-07-27

In low and middle income countries, public perceptions of drinking water safety are relevant to promotion of household water treatment and to household choices over drinking water sources. However, most studies of this topic have been cross-sectional and not considered temporal variation in drinking water safety perceptions. The objective of this study is to explore trends in perceived drinking water safety in South Africa and its association with disease outbreaks, water supply and household characteristics. This repeated cross-sectional study draws on General Household Surveys from 2002-2009, a series of annual nationally representative surveys of South African households, which include a question about perceived drinking water safety. Trends in responses to this question were examined from 2002-2009 in relation to reported cholera cases. The relationship between perceived drinking water safety and organoleptic qualities of drinking water, supply characteristics, and socio-economic and demographic household characteristics was explored in 2002 and 2008 using hierarchical stepwise logistic regression. The results suggest that perceived drinking water safety has remained relatively stable over time in South Africa, once the expansion of improved supplies is controlled for. A large cholera outbreak in 2000-02 had no apparent effect on public perception of drinking water safety in 2002. Perceived drinking water safety is primarily related to water taste, odour, and clarity rather than socio-economic or demographic characteristics. This suggests that household perceptions of drinking water safety in South Africa follow similar patterns to those observed in studies in developed countries. The stability over time in public perception of drinking water safety is particularly surprising, given the large cholera outbreak that took place at the start of this period.

Calculations of reliability predictions for the Apollo spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amstadter, B. L.

1966-01-01

A new method of reliability prediction for complex systems is defined. Calculation of both upper and lower bounds are involved, and a procedure for combining the two to yield an approximately true prediction value is presented. Both mission success and crew safety predictions can be calculated, and success probabilities can be obtained for individual mission phases or subsystems. Primary consideration is given to evaluating cases involving zero or one failure per subsystem, and the results of these evaluations are then used for analyzing multiple failure cases. Extensive development is provided for the overall mission success and crew safety equations for both the upper and lower bounds.

Epileptic seizure prediction by non-linear methods

DOEpatents

Hively, L.M.; Clapp, N.E.; Day, C.S.; Lawkins, W.F.

1999-01-12

This research discloses methods and apparatus for automatically predicting epileptic seizures monitor and analyze brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis tools; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; comparison of the trend to known seizure predictors; and providing notification that a seizure is forthcoming. 76 figs.

The risk/safety assessment of transgenic crops: the transportability of data.

PubMed

Kearns, Peter; Dagallier, Bertrand; Suwabe, Kazuyuki

2014-12-01

This paper presents the activities and publications of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Developments (OECD's) Working Group on Harmonisation of Regulatory Oversight in Biotechnology and the Task Force for the Safety of Novel Foods and Feeds. The main outputs of the work are the Series of "consensus documents" of the respective groups. These documents compile information which is intended to be used by those involved in the business of risk/safety assessment. These documents are one means of ensuring the transportability of data amongst authorities. An increasing trend in both the Working Group and Task Force is to consider crop species which are relevant to tropical regions and therefore to countries that are not necessarily members of the OECD. For example, the Working Group has recently published a consensus document on bananas and plantains while the Task Force has published a document on cassava. This trend towards crops of greater interest in the tropics is likely to continue into the future.

Long-term aerosol climatology over Indo-Gangetic Plain: Trend, prediction and potential source fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, M.; Parmar, K. S.; Kumar, D. B.; Mhawish, A.; Broday, D. M.; Mall, R. K.; Banerjee, T.

2018-05-01

Long-term aerosol climatology is derived using Terra MODIS (Collection 6) enhanced Deep Blue (DB) AOD retrieval algorithm to investigate decadal trend (2006-2015) in columnar aerosol loading, future scenarios and potential source fields over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), South Asia. Satellite based aerosol climatology was analyzed in two contexts: for the entire IGP considering area weighted mean AOD and for nine individual stations located at upper (Karachi, Multan, Lahore), central (Delhi, Kanpur, Varanasi, Patna) and lower IGP (Kolkata, Dhaka). A comparatively high aerosol loading (AOD: 0.50 ± 0.25) was evident over IGP with a statistically insignificant increasing trend of 0.002 year-1. Analysis highlights the existing spatial and temporal gradients in aerosol loading with stations over central IGP like Varanasi (decadal mean AOD±SD; 0.67 ± 0.28) and Patna (0.65 ± 0.30) exhibit the highest AOD, followed by stations over lower IGP (Kolkata: 0.58 ± 0.21; Dhaka: 0.60 ± 0.24), with a statistically significant increasing trend (0.0174-0.0206 year-1). In contrast, stations over upper IGP reveal a comparatively low aerosol loading, having an insignificant increasing trend. Variation in AOD across IGP is found to be mainly influenced by seasonality and topography. A distinct "aerosol pool" region over eastern part of Ganges plain is identified, where meteorology, topography, and aerosol sources favor the persistence of airborne particulates. A strong seasonality in aerosol loading and types is also witnessed, with high AOD and dominance of fine particulates over central to lower IGP, especially during post-monsoon and winter. The time series analyses by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) indicate contrasting patterns in randomness of AOD over individual stations with better performance especially over central IGP. Concentration weighted trajectory analyses identify the crucial contributions of western dry regions and partial contributions from

New trend- trigonometric model for interpolation and prediction of the geomagnetic field utilizing the new DGRF models.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alldredge, L.R.

1988-01-01

At the IUGG Assembly at Vancouver during August 1987 new definitive geomagnetic reference field (DGRF) models to degree 10 for 1945, 1950, 1955, and 1960 were adopted by IAGA. Before these new DGRF models were accepted, the author developed a trend and trigonometric model (old trig model) based on the models IGRF 1945, IGRF 1950, IGRF 1955, IGRF 1960, DGRF 1965, DGRF 1970, DGRF 1975, DGRF 1980, and IGRF 1985, which were all approved by IAGA in Prague in August 1985. The old trig model consists of 720 trend and trigonometric coefficients for the calculation of spherical harmonic coefficients (SHC) only to degree eight because the early IGRF models were truncated there. These trend and Fourier sine coefficients can replace the equal number of SHC contained in the 9 DGRF-IGRF models. -from Authors

Predicting Pilot Retention

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-15

forever… Gig ‘Em! Dale W. Stanley III vii Table of Contents Page Acknowledgments...over the last 20 years. Airbus predicted that these trends would continue as emerging economies , especially in Asia, were creating a fast growing...US economy , pay differential and hiring by the major airlines contributed most to the decision to separate from the Air Force (Fullerton, 2003: 354

Safety considerations for wireless delivery of continuous power to implanted medical devices.

PubMed

Lucke, Lori; Bluvshtein, Vlad

2014-01-01

Wireless power systems for use with implants are referred to as transcutaneous energy transmission systems (TETS) and consist of an implanted secondary coil and an external primary coil along with supporting electronics. A TETS system could be used to power ventricular assist systems and eliminate driveline infections. There are both direct and indirect safety concerns that must be addressed when continuously transferring power through the skin. Direct safety concerns include thermal tissue damage caused by exposure to the electromagnetic fields, coil heating effects, and potential unwanted nerve stimulation. Indirect concerns are those caused by potential interference of the TETS system with other implanted devices. Wireless power systems are trending towards higher frequency operation. Understanding the limits for safe operation of a TETS system across a range of frequencies is important. A low frequency and a high frequency implementation are simulated to demonstrate the impact of this trend for a VAD application.

Public-private interactions in global food safety governance.

PubMed

Lin, Ching-Fu

2014-01-01

In response to an apparent decline in global food safety, numerous public and private regulatory initiatives have emerged to restore public confidence. This trend has been particularly marked by the growing influence of private regulators such as multinational food companies, supermarket chains and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), who employ private standards, certification protocols, third-party auditing, and transnational contracting practices. This paper explores how the structure and processes of private food safety governance interact with traditional public governance regimes, focusing on Global Good Agricultural Practices (GlobalGAP) as a primary example of the former. Due to the inefficiency and ineffectiveness of public regulation in the face of global problems, private governance in food safety has gradually replaced states' command-and-control regulation with more flexible, market-oriented mechanisms. The paper concludes by emphasizing the importance of constructive regime interaction instead of institutional boundary building to global food safety governance. Public and private ordering must each play a role as integral parts of a larger, dynamic and evolving governance complex.

Safety behaviors and sleep effort predict sleep disturbance and fatigue in an outpatient sample with anxiety and depressive disorders.

PubMed

Fairholme, Christopher P; Manber, Rachel

2014-03-01

Theoretical and empirical support for the role of dysfunctional beliefs, safety behaviors, and increased sleep effort in the maintenance of insomnia has begun to accumulate. It is not yet known how these factors predict sleep disturbance and fatigue occurring in the context of anxiety and mood disorders. It was hypothesized that these three insomnia-specific cognitive-behavioral factors would be uniquely associated with insomnia and fatigue among patients with emotional disorders after adjusting for current symptoms of anxiety and depression and trait levels of neuroticism and extraversion. Outpatients with a current anxiety or mood disorder (N = 63) completed self-report measures including the Dysfunctional Beliefs About Sleep Scale (DBAS), Sleep-Related Safety Behaviors Questionnaire (SRBQ), Glasgow Sleep Effort Scale (GSES), Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), NEO Five-Factor Inventory (FFI), and the 21-item Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS). Multivariate path analysis was used to evaluate study hypotheses. SRBQ (B = .60, p < .001, 95% CI [.34, .86]) and GSES (B = .31, p < .01, 95% CI [.07, .55]) were both significantly associated with PSQI. There was a significant interaction between SRBQ and DBAS (B = .25, p < .05, 95% CI [.04, .47]) such that the relationship between safety behaviors and fatigue was strongest among individuals with greater levels of dysfunctional beliefs. Findings are consistent with cognitive behavioral models of insomnia and suggest that sleep-specific factors might be important treatment targets among patients with anxiety and depressive disorders with disturbed sleep. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Launch commit criteria performance trending analysis, phase 1, revision A. SRM and QA mission services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1989-01-01

An assessment of quantitative methods and measures for measuring launch commit criteria (LCC) performance measurement trends is made. A statistical performance trending analysis pilot study was processed and compared to STS-26 mission data. This study used four selected shuttle measurement types (solid rocket booster, external tank, space shuttle main engine, and range safety switch safe and arm device) from the five missions prior to mission 51-L. After obtaining raw data coordinates, each set of measurements was processed to obtain statistical confidence bounds and mean data profiles for each of the selected measurement types. STS-26 measurements were compared to the statistical data base profiles to verify the statistical capability of assessing occurrences of data trend anomalies and abnormal time-varying operational conditions associated with data amplitude and phase shifts.

Network Analytical Tool for Monitoring Global Food Safety Highlights China

PubMed Central

Nepusz, Tamás; Petróczi, Andrea; Naughton, Declan P.

2009-01-01

Background The Beijing Declaration on food safety and security was signed by over fifty countries with the aim of developing comprehensive programs for monitoring food safety and security on behalf of their citizens. Currently, comprehensive systems for food safety and security are absent in many countries, and the systems that are in place have been developed on different principles allowing poor opportunities for integration. Methodology/Principal Findings We have developed a user-friendly analytical tool based on network approaches for instant customized analysis of food alert patterns in the European dataset from the Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed. Data taken from alert logs between January 2003 – August 2008 were processed using network analysis to i) capture complexity, ii) analyze trends, and iii) predict possible effects of interventions by identifying patterns of reporting activities between countries. The detector and transgressor relationships are readily identifiable between countries which are ranked using i) Google's PageRank algorithm and ii) the HITS algorithm of Kleinberg. The program identifies Iran, China and Turkey as the transgressors with the largest number of alerts. However, when characterized by impact, counting the transgressor index and the number of countries involved, China predominates as a transgressor country. Conclusions/Significance This study reports the first development of a network analysis approach to inform countries on their transgressor and detector profiles as a user-friendly aid for the adoption of the Beijing Declaration. The ability to instantly access the country-specific components of the several thousand annual reports will enable each country to identify the major transgressors and detectors within its trading network. Moreover, the tool can be used to monitor trading countries for improved detector/transgressor ratios. PMID:19688088

Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

PubMed

Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

2015-12-01

OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

Modelling obesity trends in Australia: unravelling the past and predicting the future.

PubMed

Hayes, A J; Lung, T W C; Bauman, A; Howard, K

2017-01-01

Modelling is increasingly being used to predict the epidemiology of obesity progression and its consequences. The aims of this study were: (a) to present and validate a model for prediction of obesity among Australian adults and (b) to use the model to project the prevalence of obesity and severe obesity by 2025. Individual level simulation combined with survey estimation techniques to model changing population body mass index (BMI) distribution over time. The model input population was derived from a nationally representative survey in 1995, representing over 12 million adults. Simulations were run for 30 years. The model was validated retrospectively and then used to predict obesity and severe obesity by 2025 among different aged cohorts and at a whole population level. The changing BMI distribution over time was well predicted by the model and projected prevalence of weight status groups agreed with population level data in 2008, 2012 and 2014.The model predicts more growth in obesity among younger than older adult cohorts. Projections at a whole population level, were that healthy weight will decline, overweight will remain steady, but obesity and severe obesity prevalence will continue to increase beyond 2016. Adult obesity prevalence was projected to increase from 19% in 1995 to 35% by 2025. Severe obesity (BMI>35), which was only around 5% in 1995, was projected to be 13% by 2025, two to three times the 1995 levels. The projected rise in obesity severe obesity will have more substantial cost and healthcare system implications than in previous decades. Having a robust epidemiological model is key to predicting these long-term costs and health outcomes into the future.

Understanding patient safety performance and educational needs using the 'Safety-II' approach for complex systems.

PubMed

McNab, Duncan; Bowie, Paul; Morrison, Jill; Ross, Alastair

2016-11-01

Participation in projects to improve patient safety is a key component of general practice (GP) specialty training, appraisal and revalidation. Patient safety training priorities for GPs at all career stages are described in the Royal College of General Practitioners' curriculum. Current methods that are taught and employed to improve safety often use a 'find-and-fix' approach to identify components of a system (including humans) where performance could be improved. However, the complex interactions and inter-dependence between components in healthcare systems mean that cause and effect are not always linked in a predictable manner. The Safety-II approach has been proposed as a new way to understand how safety is achieved in complex systems that may improve quality and safety initiatives and enhance GP and trainee curriculum coverage. Safety-II aims to maximise the number of events with a successful outcome by exploring everyday work. Work-as-done often differs from work-as-imagined in protocols and guidelines and various ways to achieve success, dependent on work conditions, may be possible. Traditional approaches to improve the quality and safety of care often aim to constrain variability but understanding and managing variability may be a more beneficial approach. The application of a Safety-II approach to incident investigation, quality improvement projects, prospective analysis of risk in systems and performance indicators may offer improved insight into system performance leading to more effective change. The way forward may be to combine the Safety-II approach with 'traditional' methods to enhance patient safety training, outcomes and curriculum coverage.

A predictive index of biomarkers for ictogenesis from tier I safety pharmacology testing that may warrant tier II EEG studies.

PubMed

Gauvin, David V; Zimmermann, Zachary J; Yoder, Joshua; Harter, Marci; Holdsworth, David; Kilgus, Quinn; May, Jonelle; Dalton, Jill; Baird, Theodore J

2018-05-08

Three significant contributions to the field of safety pharmacology were recently published detailing the use of electroencephalography (EEG) by telemetry in a critical role in the successful evaluation of a compound during drug development (1] Authier, Delatte, Kallman, Stevens & Markgraf; JPTM 2016; 81:274-285; 2] Accardi, Pugsley, Forster, Troncy, Huang & Authier; JPTM; 81: 47-59; 3] Bassett, Troncy, Pouliot, Paquette, Ascaha, & Authier; JPTM 2016; 70: 230-240). These authors present a convincing case for monitoring neocortical biopotential waveforms (EEG, ECoG, etc) during preclinical toxicology studies as an opportunity for early identification of a central nervous system (CNS) risk during Investigational New Drug (IND) Enabling Studies. This review is about "ictogenesis" not "epileptogenesis". It is intended to characterize overt behavioral and physiological changes suggestive of drug-induced neurotoxicity/ictogenesis in experimental animals during Tier 1 safety pharmacology testing, prior to first dose administration in man. It is the presence of these predictive or comorbid biomarkers expressed during the requisite conduct of daily clinical or cage side observations, and in early ICH S7A Tier I CNS, pulmonary and cardiovascular safety study designs that should initiate an early conversation regarding Tier II inclusion of EEG monitoring. We conclude that there is no single definitive clinical marker for seizure liability but plasma exposures might add to set proper safety margins when clinical convulsions are observed. Even the observation of a study-related full tonic-clonic convulsion does not establish solid ground to require the financial and temporal investment of a full EEG study under the current regulatory standards. For purposes of this review, we have adopted the FDA term "sponsor" as it refers to any person who takes the responsibility for and initiates a nonclinical investigations of new molecular entities; FDA uses the term "sponsor" primarily

Oklahoma Study of Educator Supply and Demand: Trends and Projections

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berg-Jacobson, Alex; Levin, Jesse

2015-01-01

In June 2014, the Oklahoma State Regents of Higher Education (OSRHE) commissioned American Institutes for Research (AIR) to conduct a study to better understand both historical and future predicted trends of educator supply and demand across Oklahoma. OSRHE commissioned the study in partnership with the Oklahoma Commission for Teacher Preparation…

National machine guarding program: Part 2. Safety management in small metal fabrication enterprises

PubMed Central

Yamin, Samuel C.; Brosseau, Lisa M.; Xi, Min; Gordon, Robert; Most, Ivan G.; Stanley, Rodney

2015-01-01

Background Small manufacturing businesses often lack important safety programs. Many reasons have been set forth on why this has remained a persistent problem. Methods The National Machine Guarding Program (NMGP) was a nationwide intervention conducted in partnership with two workers' compensation insurers. Insurance safety consultants collected baseline data in 221 business using a 33‐question safety management audit. Audits were completed during an interview with the business owner or manager. Results Most measures of safety management improved with an increasing number of employees. This trend was particularly strong for lockout/tagout. However, size was only significant for businesses without a safety committee. Establishments with a safety committee scored higher (55% vs. 36%) on the safety management audit compared with those lacking a committee (P < 0.0001). Conclusions Critical safety management programs were frequently absent. A safety committee appears to be a more important factor than business size in accounting for differences in outcome measures. Am. J. Ind. Med. 58:1184–1193, 2015. © 2015 The Authors. American Journal of Industrial Medicine Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:26345591

Safety analysis report: A comparison of incidents from Safety Years 2006 through 2010, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station Inventory and Monitoring Program

Treesearch

Devon Donahue

2012-01-01

This paper is an analysis of 5 years of accident data for the USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS) Inventory and Monitoring (IM) Program that identifies past trends, allows for standardized self-comparison, and increases our understanding of the true costs of injuries and accidents. Measuring safety is a difficult task. While most agree that...

Comparative Longterm Mortality Trends in Cancer vs. Ischemic Heart Disease in Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Torres, David; Pericchi, Luis R; Mattei, Hernando; Zevallos, Juan C

2017-06-01

Although contemporary mortality data are important for health assessment and planning purposes, their availability lag several years. Statistical projection techniques can be employed to obtain current estimates. This study aimed to assess annual trends of mortality in Puerto Rico due to cancer and Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), and to predict shorterm and longterm cancer and IHD mortality figures. Age-adjusted mortality per 100,000 population projections with a 50% interval probability were calculated utilizing a Bayesian statistical approach of Age-Period-Cohort dynamic model. Multiple cause-of-death annual files for years 1994-2010 for Puerto Rico were used to calculate shortterm (2011-2012) predictions. Longterm (2013-2022) predictions were based on quinquennial data. We also calculated gender differences in rates (men-women) for each study period. Mortality rates for women were similar for cancer and IHD in the 1994-1998 period, but changed substantially in the projected 2018-2022 period. Cancer mortality rates declined gradually overtime, and the gender difference remained constant throughout the historical and projected trends. A consistent declining trend for IHD historical annual mortality rate was observed for both genders, with a substantial changepoint around 2004-2005 for men. The initial gender difference of 33% (80/100,00 vs. 60/100,000) in mortality rates observed between cancer and IHD in the 1994-1998 period increased to 300% (60/100,000 vs. 20/100,000) for the 2018-2022 period. The APC projection model accurately projects shortterm and longterm mortality trends for cancer and IHD in this population: The steady historical and projected cancer mortality rates contrasts with the substantial decline in IHD mortality rates, especially in men.

Car seat safety: Typologies of protective health and safety behaviors for mothers in West Virginia

PubMed Central

Thornton, J. Douglas; Deb, Arijita; Murray, Pamela J.; Kelly, Kimberly M.

2016-01-01

Objective Parenting practices differ for a variety of reasons, and three parenting behaviors may be directly influenced by research, policy, and overall parenting trends: car safety seats, vaccination, and breastfeeding. Mothers were categorized in terms of their rear-facing car safety seat utilization and its relationship to other parental health and safety behaviors. Methods A cross-sectional, online survey of mothers of children under 3 years of age (n=124) was conducted. Items assessed mother’s perceived risk and worry about being in an automobile accident, as well as duration of rear-facing car seat utilization. A cluster analysis based on these variables was performed to differentiate the sample into four distinct groups. Outcomes were knowledge of car safety seats, breastfeeding duration, and adherence to vaccination schedules. Results The sample was predominantly White, had an average age of 32 years, had breastfed, and had at least some college education. Two groups of interest had (Group 1) long duration of rear-facing use with low perceived risk and worry and (Group 2) short use with high perceived risk and worry. Fisher’s Exact test indicated Group 1 had higher knowledge of airbag use with car seats (p=0.035), lower intentions to use the recommended vaccinations schedule (p=0.005), and were more likely to breastfeed (p=0.044) for longer duration (p=0.012). Conclusion Propensity for mothers’ risk aversion may be the crucial element in both an appropriate duration of rear-facing car safety seat use and refusal of recommended vaccination schedule. PMID:27435731

Car Seat Safety: Typologies of Protective Health and Safety Behaviors for Mothers in West Virginia.

PubMed

Thornton, J Douglas; Deb, Arijita; Murray, Pamela J; Kelly, Kimberly M

2017-02-01

Objective Parenting practices differ for a variety of reasons, and three parenting behaviors may be directly influenced by research, policy, and overall parenting trends: car safety seats, vaccination, and breastfeeding. Mothers were categorized in terms of their rear-facing car safety seat utilization and its relationship to other parental health and safety behaviors. Methods A cross-sectional, online survey of mothers of children under 3 years of age (n = 124) was conducted. Items assessed mother's perceived risk and worry about being in an automobile accident, as well as duration of rear-facing car seat utilization. A cluster analysis based on these variables was performed to differentiate the sample into four distinct groups. Outcomes were knowledge of car safety seats, breastfeeding duration, and adherence to vaccination schedules. Results The sample was predominantly White, had an average age of 32 years, had breastfed, and had at least some college education. Two groups of interest had (Group 1) long duration of rear-facing use with low perceived risk and worry and (Group 2) short use with high perceived risk and worry. Fisher's Exact test indicated Group 1 had higher knowledge of airbag use with car seats (p = 0.035), lower intentions to use the recommended vaccinations schedule (p = 0.005), and were more likely to breastfeed (p = 0.044) for longer duration (p = 0.012). Conclusion Propensity for mothers' risk aversion may be the crucial element in both an appropriate duration of rear-facing car safety seat use and refusal of recommended vaccination schedule.

Promotion of safety culture in Italian schools: effectiveness of interventions on student injuries.

PubMed

Bena, Antonella; Farina, Elena; Orengia, Manuela; Quarta, Denis

2016-08-01

Numerous safety promotion interventions in schools exist but these are rarely subject to impact evaluation. Few available studies are focused on intermediate outcomes. Our objective is to evaluate the impact of prevention interventions on school injuries in a number of schools in Italy. A pre-post-study with a control group was used. One hundred and three intervention units were selected; control units were selected randomly from those which did not implement safety projects. The general objective was to promote a safety culture by increasing expertise and knowledge, and by enabling the adoption of appropriate behavior. All projects combined various elements: training and educational, information and communication, as well as organizational. The projects evaluated in this article were specifically aimed at safety in indoor premises; they were implemented in 2009-10. Injury rates standardized by gender were calculated for 5 school years (from 2007/2008 to 2011/2012) stratified by type of school and place of occurrence. To assess the effectiveness the difference-in-differences method was used. Overall, 207 012 student-years and 2918 school injuries were considered. In all types of schools, the injury rates in indoor areas show a decreasing trend in the intervention units and an increasing trend in the control units. In high schools, there were no changes in the trend of injuries occurring in the gym and/or related to sports activities. The results suggest a positive short-term effect of the programs on injuries occurring in indoor premises. The quasi-experimental design has never been previously used to evaluate the effectiveness of a prevention program in schools. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Trends in radiology and experimental research.

PubMed

Sardanelli, Francesco

2017-01-01

European Radiology Experimental , the new journal launched by the European Society of Radiology, is placed in the context of three general and seven radiology-specific trends. After describing the impact of population aging, personalized/precision medicine, and information technology development, the article considers the following trends: the tension between subspecialties and the unity of the discipline; attention to patient safety; the challenge of reproducibility for quantitative imaging; standardized and structured reporting; search for higher levels of evidence in radiology (from diagnostic performance to patient outcome); the increasing relevance of interventional radiology; and continuous technological evolution. The new journal will publish not only studies on phantoms, cells, or animal models but also those describing development steps of imaging biomarkers or those exploring secondary end-points of large clinical trials. Moreover, consideration will be given to studies regarding: computer modelling and computer aided detection and diagnosis; contrast materials, tracers, and theranostics; advanced image analysis; optical, molecular, hybrid and fusion imaging; radiomics and radiogenomics; three-dimensional printing, information technology, image reconstruction and post-processing, big data analysis, teleradiology, clinical decision support systems; radiobiology; radioprotection; and physics in radiology. The journal aims to establish a forum for basic science, computer and information technology, radiology, and other medical subspecialties.

Developing a trend prediction model of subsurface damage for fixed-abrasive grinding of optics by cup wheels.

PubMed

Dong, Zhichao; Cheng, Haobo

2016-11-10

Fixed-abrasive grinding by cup wheels plays an important role in the production of precision optics. During cup wheel grinding, we strive for a large removal rate while maintaining fine integrity on the surface and subsurface layers (academically recognized as surface roughness and subsurface damage, respectively). This study develops a theoretical model used to predict the trend of subsurface damage of optics (with respect to various grinding parameters) in fixed-abrasive grinding by cup wheels. It is derived from the maximum undeformed chip thickness model, and it successfully correlates the pivotal parameters of cup wheel grinding with the subsurface damage depth. The efficiency of this model is then demonstrated by a set of experiments performed on a cup wheel grinding machine. In these experiments, the characteristics of subsurface damage are inspected by a wedge-polishing plus microscopic inspection method, revealing that the subsurface damage induced in cup wheel grinding is composed of craterlike morphologies and slender cracks, with depth ranging from ∼6.2 to ∼13.2  μm under the specified grinding parameters. With the help of the proposed model, an optimized grinding strategy is suggested for realizing fine subsurface integrity as well as high removal rate, which can alleviate the workload of subsequent lapping and polishing.

Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network

PubMed Central

Yu, Ying; Wang, Yirui; Tang, Zheng

2017-01-01

With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model) is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model) to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient. PMID:28246527

Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network.

PubMed

Yu, Ying; Wang, Yirui; Gao, Shangce; Tang, Zheng

2017-01-01

With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model) is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model) to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient.

Biophysics, environmental stochasticity, and the evolution of thermal safety margins in intertidal limpets.

PubMed

Denny, M W; Dowd, W W

2012-03-15

As the air temperature of the Earth rises, ecological relationships within a community might shift, in part due to differences in the thermal physiology of species. Prediction of these shifts - an urgent task for ecologists - will be complicated if thermal tolerance itself can rapidly evolve. Here, we employ a mechanistic approach to predict the potential for rapid evolution of thermal tolerance in the intertidal limpet Lottia gigantea. Using biophysical principles to predict body temperature as a function of the state of the environment, and an environmental bootstrap procedure to predict how the environment fluctuates through time, we create hypothetical time-series of limpet body temperatures, which are in turn used as a test platform for a mechanistic evolutionary model of thermal tolerance. Our simulations suggest that environmentally driven stochastic variation of L. gigantea body temperature results in rapid evolution of a substantial 'safety margin': the average lethal limit is 5-7°C above the average annual maximum temperature. This predicted safety margin approximately matches that found in nature, and once established is sufficient, in our simulations, to allow some limpet populations to survive a drastic, century-long increase in air temperature. By contrast, in the absence of environmental stochasticity, the safety margin is dramatically reduced. We suggest that the risk of exceeding the safety margin, rather than the absolute value of the safety margin, plays an underappreciated role in the evolution of thermal tolerance. Our predictions are based on a simple, hypothetical, allelic model that connects genetics to thermal physiology. To move beyond this simple model - and thereby potentially to predict differential evolution among populations and among species - will require significant advances in our ability to translate the details of thermal histories into physiological and population-genetic consequences.

A comparison of ozone trends from SME and SBUV satellite observations and model calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusch, D. W.; Clancy, R. T.

1988-08-01

Data on monthly ozone abundance trends near the stratopause, observed by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer (UVS) on the SME and by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) on NIMBUS-7 are presented for June, September, and January of the years 1982-1986. Globally averaged trends determined from the SME data (-0.5 + or - 1.3 percent/yr) were found to fall within model calculations by Rusch and Clancy (1988); the SBUV trends, on the other hand, were found to exceed maximum predicted ozone decreases by a factor of 3 or more. Detailed comparison of the two data sets indicated that an absolute offset of 3 percent/yr accounts for much of the difference between the two trends; the offset is considered to be due to incomplete characterization of the SBUV calibration drift. Both the UVS and SBUV data exhibited similar seasonal and latitudinal variations in ozone trends, which were reproduced by photochemical model calculations that included latitude-dependent NMC temperature trends over the 1982-1986 period.

A comparison of ozone trends from SME and SBUV satellite observations and model calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rusch, D. W.; Clancy, R. T.

1988-01-01

Data on monthly ozone abundance trends near the stratopause, observed by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer (UVS) on the SME and by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) on NIMBUS-7 are presented for June, September, and January of the years 1982-1986. Globally averaged trends determined from the SME data (-0.5 + or - 1.3 percent/yr) were found to fall within model calculations by Rusch and Clancy (1988); the SBUV trends, on the other hand, were found to exceed maximum predicted ozone decreases by a factor of 3 or more. Detailed comparison of the two data sets indicated that an absolute offset of 3 percent/yr accounts for much of the difference between the two trends; the offset is considered to be due to incomplete characterization of the SBUV calibration drift. Both the UVS and SBUV data exhibited similar seasonal and latitudinal variations in ozone trends, which were reproduced by photochemical model calculations that included latitude-dependent NMC temperature trends over the 1982-1986 period.

Predicting the Impacts of Intravehicular Displays on Driving Performance with Human Performance Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, Diane Kuhl; Wojciechowski, Josephine; Samms, Charneta

2012-01-01

A challenge facing the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), as well as international safety experts, is the need to educate car drivers about the dangers associated with performing distraction tasks while driving. Researchers working for the U.S. Army Research Laboratory have developed a technique for predicting the increase in mental workload that results when distraction tasks are combined with driving. They implement this technique using human performance modeling. They have predicted workload associated with driving combined with cell phone use. In addition, they have predicted the workload associated with driving military vehicles combined with threat detection. Their technique can be used by safety personnel internationally to demonstrate the dangers of combining distracter tasks with driving and to mitigate the safety risks.

Engineering and Safety Partnership Enhances Safety of the Space Shuttle Program (SSP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duarte, Alberto

2007-01-01

Project Management must use the risk assessment documents (RADs) as tools to support their decision making process. Therefore, these documents have to be initiated, developed, and evolved parallel to the life of the project. Technical preparation and safety compliance of these documents require a great deal of resources. Updating these documents after-the-fact not only requires substantial increase in resources - Project Cost -, but this task is also not useful and perhaps an unnecessary expense. Hazard Reports (HRs), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEAs), Critical Item Lists (CILs), Risk Management process are, among others, within this category. A positive action resulting from a strong partnership between interested parties is one way to get these documents and related processes and requirements, released and updated in useful time. The Space Shuttle Program (SSP) at the Marshall Space Flight Center has implemented a process which is having positive results and gaining acceptance within the Agency. A hybrid Panel, with equal interest and responsibilities for the two larger organizations, Safety and Engineering, is the focal point of this process. Called the Marshall Safety and Engineering Review Panel (MSERP), its charter (Space Shuttle Program Directive 110 F, April 15, 2005), and its Operating Control Plan emphasizes the technical and safety responsibilities over the program risk documents: HRs; FMEA/CILs; Engineering Changes; anomalies/problem resolutions and corrective action implementations, and trend analysis. The MSERP has undertaken its responsibilities with objectivity, assertiveness, dedication, has operated with focus, and has shown significant results and promising perspectives. The MSERP has been deeply involved in propulsion systems and integration, real time technical issues and other relevant reviews, since its conception. These activities have transformed the propulsion MSERP in a truly participative and value added panel, making a

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2014.

PubMed

Malvezzi, M; Bertuccio, P; Levi, F; La Vecchia, C; Negri, E

2014-08-01

From most recent available data, we projected cancer mortality statistics for 2014, for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Specific attention was given to pancreatic cancer, the only major neoplasm showing unfavorable trends in both sexes. Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2014 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. In the EU in 2014, 1,323,600 deaths from cancer are predicted (742,500 men and 581,100 women), corresponding to standardized death rates of 138.1/100,000 men and 84.7/100,000 women, falling by 7% and 5%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate cancer) are lower than in 2009, falling by 8%, 4% and 10%, respectively. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favorable trends (-9% and -7%), but female lung cancer rates are predicted to rise 8%. Pancreatic cancer is the only neoplasm with a negative outlook in both sexes. Only in the young (25-49 years), EU trends become more favorable in men, while women keep registering slight predicted rises. Cancer mortality predictions for 2014 confirm the overall favorable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 20% in women, and the avoidance of over 250,000 deaths in 2014 compared with the peak rate. Notable exceptions are female lung cancer and pancreatic cancer in both sexes. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Error disclosure: a new domain for safety culture assessment.

PubMed

Etchegaray, Jason M; Gallagher, Thomas H; Bell, Sigall K; Dunlap, Ben; Thomas, Eric J

2012-07-01

To (1) develop and test survey items that measure error disclosure culture, (2) examine relationships among error disclosure culture, teamwork culture and safety culture and (3) establish predictive validity for survey items measuring error disclosure culture. All clinical faculty from six health institutions (four medical schools, one cancer centre and one health science centre) in The University of Texas System were invited to anonymously complete an electronic survey containing questions about safety culture and error disclosure. The authors found two factors to measure error disclosure culture: one factor is focused on the general culture of error disclosure and the second factor is focused on trust. Both error disclosure culture factors were unique from safety culture and teamwork culture (correlations were less than r=0.85). Also, error disclosure general culture and error disclosure trust culture predicted intent to disclose a hypothetical error to a patient (r=0.25, p<0.001 and r=0.16, p<0.001, respectively) while teamwork and safety culture did not predict such an intent (r=0.09, p=NS and r=0.12, p=NS). Those who received prior error disclosure training reported significantly higher levels of error disclosure general culture (t=3.7, p<0.05) and error disclosure trust culture (t=2.9, p<0.05). The authors created and validated a new measure of error disclosure culture that predicts intent to disclose an error better than other measures of healthcare culture. This measure fills an existing gap in organisational assessments by assessing transparent communication after medical error, an important aspect of culture.

Irradiation for quality improvement, microbial safety and phytosanitation of fresh produce

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In this book we pull together research, technological advances and current trends from many disciplines to provide a single comprehensive source of information on the many uses of irradiation to improve the safety and supply of fruits and vegetables. Part 1 of the book focuses on the potential of io...

Safety leadership at construction sites: the importance of rule-oriented and participative leadership.

PubMed

Grill, Martin; Pousette, Anders; Nielsen, Kent; Grytnes, Regine; Törner, Marianne

2017-07-01

Objectives The construction industry accounted for >20% of all fatal occupational accidents in Europe in 2014. Leadership is an essential antecedent to occupational safety. The aim of the present study was to assess the influence of transformational, active transactional, rule-oriented, participative, and laissez-faire leadership on safety climate, safety behavior, and accidents in the Swedish and Danish construction industry. Sweden and Denmark are similar countries but have a large difference in occupational accidents rates. Methods A questionnaire study was conducted among a random sample of construction workers in both countries: 811 construction workers from 85 sites responded, resulting in site and individual response rates of 73% and 64%, respectively. Results The results indicated that transformational, active transactional, rule-oriented and participative leadership predict positive safety outcomes, and laissez-faire leadership predict negative safety outcomes. For example, rule-oriented leadership predicts a superior safety climate (β=0.40, P<0.001), enhanced safety behavior (β=0.15, P<0.001), and fewer accidents [odds ratio (OR) 0.78, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.62-0.98]. The effect of rule-oriented leadership on workers' safety behavior was moderated by the level of participative leadership (β=0.10, P<0.001), suggesting that when rules and plans are established in a collaborative manner, workers' motivation to comply with safety regulations and participate in proactive safety activities is elevated. The influence of leadership behaviors on safety outcomes were largely similar in Sweden and Denmark. Rule-oriented and participative leadership were more common in the Swedish than Danish construction industry, which may partly explain the difference in occupational accident rates. Conclusions Applying less laissez-faire leadership and more transformational, active transactional, participative and rule-oriented leadership appears to be an effective

Monitoring of Non-cigarette Tobacco Use using Google Trends

PubMed Central

Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A.; Krauss, Melissa J.; Spitznagel, Edward L.; Lowery, Ashley; Grucza, Richard A.; Chaloupka, Frank J.; Bierut, Laura Jean

2014-01-01

Background Google Trends is an innovative monitoring system with unique potential to monitor and predict important phenomena that may be occurring at a population-level. We sought to validate whether Google Trends can additionally detect regional trends in youth and adult tobacco use. Methods We compared 2011 Google Trends relative search volume data for cigars, cigarillos, little cigars and smokeless tobacco with state prevalence of youth (grades 9–12) and adult (age 18 and older) use of these products using data from the 2011 United States state-level Youth Risk Behaviors Surveillance System and the 2010–2011 United States National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), respectively. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the associations. Results We found significant positive correlations between state Google Trends cigar relative search volume and prevalence of cigar use among youth (r=0.39, R-square=0.154, p= .018) and adults (r=0.49, R-square=0.243, p<.001). Similarly, we found that the correlations between state Google trends smokeless tobacco relative search volume and prevalence of smokeless tobacco use among youth and adults were both positive and significant (r=0.46, R-square=0.209, p=.003 and r=0.48, R-square=0.226, p<.001, respectively). Conclusion The results of this study validate that Google Trends has the potential to be a valuable monitoring tool for tobacco use. The near real-time monitoring features of Google Trends may complement traditional surveillance methods and lead to faster and more convenient monitoring of emerging trends in tobacco use. What this paper adds Efforts to promptly track tobacco use at a population-level are an important endeavor that could assist key stakeholders with making informed decisions about prevention plans and policies. Our findings establish the validity of Google Trends as an indicator of cigar and smokeless tobacco use by demonstrating that states with higher relative volumes of Google

International Space Station (ISS) Anomalies Trending Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beil, Robert J.; Brady, Timothy K.; Foster, Delmar C.; Graber, Robert R.; Malin, Jane T.; Thornesbery, Carroll G.; Throop, David R.

2015-01-01

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) set out to utilize data mining and trending techniques to review the anomaly history of the International Space Station (ISS) and provide tools for discipline experts not involved with the ISS Program to search anomaly data to aid in identification of areas that may warrant further investigation. Additionally, the assessment team aimed to develop an approach and skillset for integrating data sets, with the intent of providing an enriched data set for discipline experts to investigate that is easier to navigate, particularly in light of ISS aging and the plan to extend its life into the late 2020s. This report contains the outcome of the NESC Assessment.

Predictive modeling of respiratory tumor motion for real-time prediction of baseline shifts

PubMed Central

Balasubramanian, A; Shamsuddin, R; Prabhakaran, B; Sawant, A

2017-01-01

Baseline shifts in respiratory patterns can result in significant spatiotemporal changes in patient anatomy (compared to that captured during simulation), in turn, causing geometric and dosimetric errors in the administration of thoracic and abdominal radiotherapy. We propose predictive modeling of the tumor motion trajectories for predicting a baseline shift ahead of its occurrence. The key idea is to use the features of the tumor motion trajectory over a 1 min window, and predict the occurrence of a baseline shift in the 5 s that immediately follow (lookahead window). In this study, we explored a preliminary trend-based analysis with multi-class annotations as well as a more focused binary classification analysis. In both analyses, a number of different inter-fraction and intra-fraction training strategies were studied, both offline as well as online, along with data sufficiency and skew compensation for class imbalances. The performance of different training strategies were compared across multiple machine learning classification algorithms, including nearest neighbor, Naïve Bayes, linear discriminant and ensemble Adaboost. The prediction performance is evaluated using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall and the area under the curve (AUC) for repeater operating characteristics curve. The key results of the trend-based analysis indicate that (i) intra-fraction training strategies achieve highest prediction accuracies (90.5–91.4%); (ii) the predictive modeling yields lowest accuracies (50–60%) when the training data does not include any information from the test patient; (iii) the prediction latencies are as low as a few hundred milliseconds, and thus conducive for real-time prediction. The binary classification performance is promising, indicated by high AUCs (0.96–0.98). It also confirms the utility of prior data from previous patients, and also the necessity of training the classifier on some initial data from the new patient for reasonable

Trends & Controversies: Sociocultural Predictive Analytics and Terrorism Deterrence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; McGrath, Liam R.

2011-08-12

The use of predictive analytics to model terrorist rhetoric is highly instrumental in developing a strategy to deter terrorism. Traditional (e.g. Cold-War) deterrence methods are ineffective with terrorist groups such as al Qaida. Terrorists typically regard the prospect of death or loss of property as acceptable consequences of their struggle. Deterrence by threat of punishment is therefore fruitless. On the other hand, isolating terrorists from the community that may sympathize with their cause can have a decisive deterring outcome. Without the moral backing of a supportive audience, terrorism cannot be successfully framed as a justifiable political strategy and recruiting ismore » curtailed. Ultimately, terrorism deterrence is more effectively enforced by exerting influence to neutralize the communicative reach of terrorists.« less

A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians

PubMed Central

Thessen, Anne E.; Arias-Caballero, Paulina; Ayala-Orozco, Bárbara

2014-01-01

Background. Mexico has the world’s fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species’ risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species. PMID:25548736

A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians.

PubMed

Quintero, Esther; Thessen, Anne E; Arias-Caballero, Paulina; Ayala-Orozco, Bárbara

2014-01-01

Background. Mexico has the world's fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species' risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

[Necessity of applying pharmacovigilance in post-marketing safety monitoring of traditional Chinese medicine injections].

PubMed