The Sahel Region of West Africa: Examples of Climate Analyses Motivated By Drought Management Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndiaye, O.; Ward, M. N.; Siebert, A. B.

2011-12-01

The Sahel is one of the most drought-prone regions in the world. This paper focuses on climate sources of drought, and some new analyses mostly driven by users needing climate information to help in drought management strategies. The Sahel region of West Africa is a transition zone between equatorial climate and vegetation to the south, and desert to the north. The climatology of the region is dominated by dry conditions for most of the year, with a single peak in rainfall during boreal summer. The seasonal rainfall total contains both interannual variability and substantial decadal to multidecadal variability (MDV). This brings climate analysis and drought management challenges across this range of timescales. The decline in rainfall from the wet decades of the 1950s and 60s to the dry decades of the 1970s and 80s has been well documented. In recent years, a moderate recovery has emerged, with seasonal totals in the period 1994-2010 significantly higher than the average rainfall 1970-1993. These MDV rainfall fluctuations have expression in large-scale sea-surface temperature fluctuations in all ocean basins, placing the changes in drought frequency within broader ocean-atmosphere climate fluctuation. We have evaluated the changing character of low seasonal rainfall total event frequencies in the Sahel region 1950-2010, highlighting the role of changes in the mean, variance and distribution shape of seasonal rainfall totals as the climate has shifted through the three observed phases. We also consider the extent to which updating climate normals in real-time can damp the bias in expected event frequency, an important issue for the feasibility of index insurance as a drought management tool in the presence of a changing climate. On the interannual timescale, a key factor long discussed for agriculture is the character of rainfall onset. An extended dry spell often occurs early in the rainy season before the crop is fully established, and this often leads to crop failure. This can be viewed as a special case of agricultural drought. Therefore, improving climate information around the time of planting can play a key role in agricultural risk management. Rainfall onset indices have been calculated for stations across Senegal. The problem is climatically challenging because the physical processes that impact rainfall onset appear to span aspects normally studied separately: weather system character, propagating intraseasonal features, and large-scale sea-surface temperature influence. We present aspects of all these, and ideas on how to combine them into seamless information to support agriculture.

Observed positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks in the Sahel dominated by a moisture recycling mechanism

DOE PAGES

Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael; Wang, Fuyao; ...

2017-11-30

Classic, model-based theory of land-atmosphere interactions across the Sahel promote positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks dominated by surface albedo mechanism. However, neither the proposed positive vegetation-rainfall feedback nor its underlying albedo mechanism has been convincingly demonstrated using observational data. Here, we present observational evidence for the region’s proposed positive vegetation-rainfall feedback on the seasonal to interannual time scale, and find that it is associated with a moisture recycling mechanism, rather than the classic albedo-based mechanism. Positive anomalies of remotely sensed vegetation greenness across the Sahel during the late and post-monsoon periods favor enhanced evapotranspiration, precipitable water, convective activity and rainfall, indicative ofmore » amplified moisture recycling. The identified modest low-level cooling and anomalous atmospheric subsidence in response to positive vegetation greenness anomalies are counter to the responses expected through the classic vegetation-albedo feedback mechanism. The observational analysis further reveals enhanced dust emissions in response to diminished Sahel vegetation growth, potentially contributing to the positive vegetation-rainfall feedback.« less

Observed positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks in the Sahel dominated by a moisture recycling mechanism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael; Wang, Fuyao

Classic, model-based theory of land-atmosphere interactions across the Sahel promote positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks dominated by surface albedo mechanism. However, neither the proposed positive vegetation-rainfall feedback nor its underlying albedo mechanism has been convincingly demonstrated using observational data. Here, we present observational evidence for the region’s proposed positive vegetation-rainfall feedback on the seasonal to interannual time scale, and find that it is associated with a moisture recycling mechanism, rather than the classic albedo-based mechanism. Positive anomalies of remotely sensed vegetation greenness across the Sahel during the late and post-monsoon periods favor enhanced evapotranspiration, precipitable water, convective activity and rainfall, indicative ofmore » amplified moisture recycling. The identified modest low-level cooling and anomalous atmospheric subsidence in response to positive vegetation greenness anomalies are counter to the responses expected through the classic vegetation-albedo feedback mechanism. The observational analysis further reveals enhanced dust emissions in response to diminished Sahel vegetation growth, potentially contributing to the positive vegetation-rainfall feedback.« less

Woody vegetation die off and regeneration in response to rainfall variability in the west African Sahel

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brandt, Martin; Tappan, G. Gray; Aziz Diouf, Abdoul; Beye, Gora; Mbow, Cheikh; Fensholt, Rasmus

2017-01-01

The greening in the Senegalese Sahel has been linked to an increase in net primary productivity, with significant long-term trends being closely related to the woody strata. This study investigates woody plant growth and mortality within greening areas in the pastoral areas of Senegal, and how these dynamics are linked to species diversity, climate, soil and human management. We analyse woody cover dynamics by means of multi-temporal and multi-scale Earth Observation, satellite based rainfall and in situ data sets covering the period 1994 to 2015. We find that favourable conditions (forest reserves, low human population density, sufficient rainfall) led to a rapid growth of Combretaceae and Balanites aegyptiaca between 2000 and 2013 with an average increase of 4% woody cover. However, the increasing dominance and low drought resistance of drought prone species bears the risk of substantial woody cover losses following drought years. This was observed in 2014–2015, with a die off of Guiera senegalensis in most places of the study area. We show that woody cover and woody cover trends are closely related to mean annual rainfall, but no clear relationship with rainfall trends was found over the entire study period. The observed spatial and temporal variation contrasts with the simplified labels of “greening” or “degradation”. While in principal a low woody plant diversity negatively impacts regional resilience, the Sahelian system is showing signs of resilience at decadal time scales through widespread increases in woody cover and high regeneration rates after periodic droughts. We have reaffirmed that the woody cover in Sahel responds to its inherent climatic variability and does not follow a linear trend.

Precipitation interannual variability and predictions for West Africa from the National Multi-Model Ensemble dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiaw, W. M.

2013-12-01

The ability of coupled climate models from the national multi-model ensemble (NMME) dataset to reproduce the basic state and interannual variability of precipitation in West Africa and associated teleconnections is examined. The analysis is for the period 1982-2010 for most of the models, which corresponds to the NMME hindcast period, except for the CFS version 1 (CFSv1) which covers the period 1981-2009. The satellite based CPC African Rainfall Climatology (ARC2) data is used as proxy for observed rainfall and to validate the models. We examine rainfall patterns throughout the year. Models are able to reproduce the north-south migration of precipitation from winter and spring when the area of maximum precipitation is located in Central Africa and the Gulf of Guinea region to the summer when it is in northern Sub-Saharan Africa, and the later return to the south. Models also appropriately place precipitation over the Gulf of Guinea region during the equinoxes in MAM and OND. However, there are considerable differences in the representation of the intensities and locations of the rainfall. Three of the models including the two versions of the NCEP CFS and the NASA models also have a systematic dry (wet) bias over the Sahel (Gulf of Guinea region) during the summer rainfall season, while the others show alternating wet and dry biases across West Africa. All models have spatially averaged values of standard deviation lower than that observed. Models are also able to reproduce to some extent the main features of the precipitation variability maximum, but again with deficiencies in the amplitudes and locations. The areas of highest variability are generally depicted, but there are significant differences among the models, and even between the two versions of the CFS. Teleconnections in the models are investigated by first conducting an EOF in the precipitation anomaly fields and then perform a regression of the first or second EOF time series onto the global SST. Focusing on JAS rainfall season, only the CFSv1 and the NASA models were able to depict the dipole pattern between the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea rainfall. However, none of the models was able to reproduce the observed upward trend of Sahel rainfall in the last decade. The relationship to SST is also examined. The observed influence of tropical north Atlantic SST on the Sahel rainfall is only partially represented even in the CFSv1, while the NASA model inconsistently emphasizes the role of the tropical South Atlantic. A majority of the models show a partial ENSO teleconnection combined with the tropical south Atlantic mode. However, observations indicate that the influence of ENSO on northern Sub-Saharan summer rainfall has been very weak over the past 30 years. Results for MAM, and OND are also presented. The influence of model errors on the predictions of African rainfall is presented. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is employed to correct the model simulations. A new ensemble based on models corrected forecasts is then formed and the results are presented.

Simulation of Rainfall Variability Over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bader, J.; Latif, M.

The impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and vegetation on precipitation over West Africa is investigated with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4.x/T42. Ensemble experiments -driven with observed SST- show that At- lantic SST has a significant influence on JJA precipitation over West Africa. Four- teen experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced or decreased by one Kelvin in certain ocean areas. Changing SST in the eastern tropi- cal Atlantic only caused significant changes along the Guinea Coast, with a positive SSTA increasing rainfall and a negative reducing it. The response was nearly linear. Changing SST in other ocean areas caused significant changes over West Africa, es- pecially in the Sahel area. The response is found to be non linear, with only negative SSTA leading to significant reduction in Sahel rainfall. Also, the impact of the SSTAs from the different ocean regions was not additive with respect to the rainfall. Four simulations with a coupled model (the simple dynamic vegetation model (SVege) and the ECHAM4-AGCM were coupled) were also performed, driven with observed SST from 1945 to 1998. The standard ECHAM-AGCM -forced by the same observed SST- was able to reproduce the drying trend from the fifties to the mid-eighties in the Sahel, but failed to mirror the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies. The coupled model was not only able to reproduce this drying trend, but was also able to better reproduce the amplitudes of the rainfall anomalies. The dynamic vegetation acted like an amplifier, increasing the SST induced rainfall anomalies.

Factors Influencing the Sahelian Paradox at the Local Watershed Scale: Causal Inference Insights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Gordon, M.; Groenke, A.; Larsen, L.

2017-12-01

While the existence of paradoxical rainfall-runoff and rainfall-groundwater correlations are well established in the West African Sahel, the hydrologic mechanisms involved are poorly understood. In pursuit of mechanistic explanations, we perform a causal inference analysis on hydrologic variables in three watersheds in Benin and Niger. Using an ensemble of techniques, we compute the strength of relationships between observational soil moisture, runoff, precipitation, and temperature data at seasonal and event timescales. Performing analysis over a range of time lags allows dominant time scales to emerge from the relationships between variables. By determining the time scales of hydrologic connectivity over vertical and lateral space, we show differences in the importance of overland and subsurface flow over the course of the rainy season and between watersheds. While previous work on the paradoxical hydrologic behavior in the Sahel focuses on surface processes and infiltration, our results point toward the importance of subsurface flow to rainfall-runoff relationships in these watersheds. The hypotheses generated from our ensemble approach suggest that subsequent explorations of mechanistic hydrologic processes in the region include subsurface flow. Further, this work highlights how an ensemble approach to causal analysis can reveal nuanced relationships between variables even in poorly understood hydrologic systems.

Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Ajayi, V. O.; Adejare, A. T.; Adeyeri, O. E.; Gbode, I. E.; Ogunjobi, K. O.; Nikulin, G.; Abolude, A. T.

2018-04-01

This study presents evaluation of the ability of Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) driven by nine global circulation models (GCMs), to skilfully reproduce the key features of rainfall climatology over West Africa for the period of 1980-2005. The seasonal climatology and annual cycle of the RCA4 simulations were assessed over three homogenous subregions of West Africa (Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and evaluated using observed precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Furthermore, the model output was evaluated using a wide range of statistical measures. The interseasonal and interannual variability of the RCA4 were further assessed over the subregions and the whole of the West Africa domain. Results indicate that the RCA4 captures the spatial and interseasonal rainfall pattern adequately but exhibits a weak performance over the Guinea coast. Findings from the interannual rainfall variability indicate that the model performance is better over the larger West Africa domain than the subregions. The largest difference across the RCA4 simulated annual rainfall was found in the Sahel. Result from the Mann-Kendall test showed no significant trend for the 1980-2005 period in annual rainfall either in GPCP observation data or in the model simulations over West Africa. In many aspects, the RCA4 simulation driven by the HadGEM2-ES perform best over the region. The use of the multimodel ensemble mean has resulted to the improved representation of rainfall characteristics over the study domain.

Rainfall intensification in tropical semi-arid regions: the Sahelian case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthou, G.; Lebel, T.; Vischel, T.; Quantin, G.; Sane, Y.; Ba, A.; Ndiaye, O.; Diongue-Niang, A.; Diopkane, M.

2018-06-01

An anticipated consequence of ongoing global warming is the intensification of the rainfall regimes meaning longer dry spells and heavier precipitation when it rains, with potentially high hydrological and socio-economic impacts. The semi-arid regions of the intertropical band, such as the Sahel, are facing particularly serious challenges in this respect since their population is strongly vulnerable to extreme climatic events. Detecting long term trends in the Sahelian rainfall regime is thus of great societal importance, while being scientifically challenging because datasets allowing for such detection studies are rare in this region. This study addresses this challenge by making use of a large set of daily rain gauge data covering the Sahel (defined in this study as extending from 20°W–10°E and from 11°N–18°N) since 1950, combined with an unparalleled 5 minute rainfall observations available since 1990 over the AMMA-CATCH Niger observatory. The analysis of the daily data leads to the assertion that a hydro-climatic intensification is actually taking place in the Sahel, with an increasing mean intensity of rainy days associated with a higher frequency of heavy rainfall. This leads in turn to highlight that the return to wetter annual rainfall conditions since the beginning of the 2000s—succeeding the 1970–2000 drought—is by no mean a recovery towards the much smoother regime that prevailed during the 1950s and 1960s. It also provides a vision of the contrasts existing between the West Sahel and the East Sahel, the East Sahel experiencing a stronger increase of extreme rainfall. This regional vision is complemented by a local study at sub-daily timescales carried out thanks to the 5 minute rainfall series of the AMMA-CATCH Niger observatory (12000 km2). The increasing intensity of extreme rainfall is also visible at sub-daily timescales, the annual maximum intensities have increased at an average rate of 2%–6% per decade since 1990 for timescales ranging from 5 min to 1 hour. Both visions—regional/long term/daily on the one hand, and local/27/years/sub-daily, on the other—converge to the conclusion that, rather than a rainfall recovery, the Sahel is experiencing a new era of climate extremes that roughly started at the beginning of this century.

Sahelian rangeland response to changes in rainfall over two decades in the Gourma region, Mali

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiernaux, Pierre; Mougin, Eric; Diarra, Lassine; Soumaguel, Nogmana; Lavenu, François; Tracol, Yann; Diawara, Mamadou

2009-08-01

SummaryTwenty-five rangeland sites were monitored over two decades (1984-2006) first to assess the impact of the 1983-1984 droughts on fodder resources, then to better understand ecosystem functioning and dynamics. Sites are sampled along the south-north bioclimatic gradient in Gourma (Mali), within three main edaphic situations: sandy, loamy-clay and shallow soils. In addition, three levels of grazing pressure where systematically sampled within sandy soils. Located at the northern edge of the area reached by the West African monsoon, the Gourma gradient has recorded extremes in inter-annual variations of rainfall and resulting variations in vegetation growth. Following rainfall variability, inter-annual variability of herbaceous yield increases as climate gets dryer with latitudes at least on the sandy soils sites. Local redistribution of rainfall explains the high patchiness of herbaceous vegetation, especially on shallow soils. Yet spatial heterogeneity of the vegetation does not buffer between year yield variability that increases with spatial heterogeneity. At short term, livestock grazing during the wet season affects plant growth and thus yield in direction and proportions that vary with the timing and intensity of grazing. In the longer term, grazing also impinges upon species composition in many ways. Hence, long histories of heavy grazing promote either long cycle annuals refused by livestock or else short cycle good quality feed species. Primary production is maintained or even increased in the case of refusal such as Sida cordifolia, and is lessened in the case of short cycle species such as Zornia glochidiata. These behaviours explain that the yield anomalies calculated for the rangelands on sandy soils relative to the yield of site less grazed under similar climate tend to be negative in northern Sahel where the scenario of short cycle species dominates, while yield anomalies are close to nil in centre Sahel and slightly positive in South Sahel where the refusal scenario is more frequent. Because grazing promotes short cycle species, grazed rangelands respond faster to droughts. Year to year changes in species composition are abrupt as expected from the transient soil seed stock. However, some decadal trends in species composition are identified, with a wave of pioneer species following the 1983-1984 droughts, and a more progressive diversification and return to typical Sahel flora from 1992 onwards.

Rainfall over the African continent from the 19th through the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholson, Sharon E.; Funk, Chris; Fink, Andreas H.

2018-06-01

Most of the African continent is semi-arid and hence prone to extreme variations in rainfall from year to year. The extreme droughts that have plagued the Sahel and eastern Africa are particularly well known. This article uses a markedly expanded and updated rainfall data set to examine rainfall variability in 13 sectors that cover most of the continent. Annual rainfall is presented for each sector; the March-to-May and October-November seasons are also examined for equatorial sectors. In each case, the article includes the longest and most comprehensive precipitation gauge series ever published. All time series cover at least a century and most cover roughly one and one-half centuries or more. Although towards the end of the 20th century there was a widespread trend towards more arid conditions, few significant trends are evident over the entire period of record. The largest were downward trends in the Sahel and western sectors of North Africa. In those regions, an abrupt reduction in rainfall occurred around 1968, but a synchronous change occurred many other parts of Africa. A recovery did occur in the Sahel, but to varying degrees across the east-west expanse of the region. Noteworthy is that the west-to-east rainfall gradient across the region appears to have weakened in recent decades. For the continent as a whole, another change began in the 1980s decade, with more arid conditions persisting at the continental scale until early in the twenty-first century. No other such period of dry conditions occurred within the roughly one and one-half centuries evaluated here. A notable change also occurred at the seasonal level. During the period 1980 to 1998 rainfall during March-to-May was well below the long-term mean throughout most of the area from 20° N to 35° S. At the same time rainfall was above the long-term mean in most of eastern sectors within this latitude span, indicating a change in the seasonality of rainfall of a large part of Africa.

Do state-of-the-art CMIP5 ESMs accurately represent observed vegetation-rainfall feedbacks? Focus on the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notaro, M.; Wang, F.; Yu, Y.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Wei, Y.

2017-12-01

The semi-arid Sahel ecoregion is an established hotspot of land-atmosphere coupling. Ocean-land-atmosphere interactions received considerable attention by modeling studies in response to the devastating 1970s-90s Sahel drought, which models suggest was driven by sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies and amplified by local vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Vegetation affects the atmosphere through biophysical feedbacks by altering the albedo, roughness, and transpiration and thereby modifying exchanges of energy, momentum, and moisture with the atmosphere. The current understanding of these potentially competing processes is primarily based on modeling studies, with biophysical feedbacks serving as a key uncertainty source in regional climate change projections among Earth System Models (ESMs). In order to reduce this uncertainty, it is critical to rigorously evaluate the representation of vegetation feedbacks in ESMs against an observational benchmark in order to diagnose systematic biases and their sources. However, it is challenging to successfully isolate vegetation's feedbacks on the atmosphere, since the atmospheric control on vegetation growth dominates the atmospheric feedback response to vegetation anomalies and the atmosphere is simultaneously influenced by oceanic and terrestrial anomalies. In response to this challenge, a model-validated multivariate statistical method, Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (SGEFA), is developed, which extracts the forcing of a slowly-evolving environmental variable [e.g. SST or leaf area index (LAI)] on the rapidly-evolving atmosphere. By applying SGEFA to observational and remotely-sensed data, an observational benchmark is established for Sahel vegetation feedbacks. In this work, the simulated responses in key atmospheric variables, including evapotranspiration, albedo, wind speed, vertical motion, temperature, stability, and rainfall, to Sahel LAI anomalies are statistically assessed in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ESMs through SGEFA. The dominant mechanism, such as albedo feedback, moisture recycling, or momentum feedback, in each ESM is evaluated against the observed benchmark. SGEFA facilitates a systematic assessment of model biases in land-atmosphere interactions.

Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sultan, B.; Guan, K.; Kouressy, M.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.; Lobell, D. B.

2014-10-01

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031-2060 compared to a baseline of 1961-1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16-20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate impacts on sorghum yields by about 10%, with drier regions experiencing the largest benefits, though the net impacts of climate change remain negative even after accounting for CO2.

Impacts of the seasonal distribution of rainfall on vegetation productivity across the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenmin; Brandt, Martin; Tong, Xiaoye; Tian, Qingjiu; Fensholt, Rasmus

2018-01-01

Climate change in drylands has caused alterations in the seasonal distribution of rainfall including increased heavy-rainfall events, longer dry spells, and a shifted timing of the wet season. Yet the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in drylands is usually explained by annual-rainfall sums, disregarding the influence of the seasonal distribution of rainfall. This study tested the importance of rainfall metrics in the wet season (onset and cessation of the wet season, number of rainy days, rainfall intensity, number of consecutive dry days, and heavy-rainfall events) for growing season ANPP. We focused on the Sahel and northern Sudanian region (100-800 mm yr-1) and applied daily satellite-based rainfall estimates (CHIRPS v2.0) and growing-season-integrated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; MODIS) as a proxy for ANPP over the study period: 2001-2015. Growing season ANPP in the arid zone (100-300 mm yr-1) was found to be rather insensitive to variations in the seasonal-rainfall metrics, whereas vegetation in the semi-arid zone (300-700 mm yr-1) was significantly impacted by most metrics, especially by the number of rainy days and timing (onset and cessation) of the wet season. We analysed critical breakpoints for all metrics to test if vegetation response to changes in a given rainfall metric surpasses a threshold beyond which vegetation functioning is significantly altered. It was shown that growing season ANPP was particularly negatively impacted after > 14 consecutive dry days and that a rainfall intensity of ˜ 13 mm day-1 was detected for optimum growing season ANPP. We conclude that the number of rainy days and the timing of the wet season are seasonal-rainfall metrics that are decisive for favourable vegetation growth in the semi-arid Sahel and need to be considered when modelling primary productivity from rainfall in the drylands of the Sahel and elsewhere.

Diagnosing Mechanisms of Oceanic Influence on Sahel Precipitation Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomposi, Catherine A.

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is a significant component of the global monsoon system and plays a key role in the annual cycle of precipitation in the Sahel region of Africa (10°N to 20°N) during the summer months (July to September). Rainfall in the Sahel varies on timescales ranging from seasons to millennia as a result of changes in the WAM. In the last century, the Sahel experienced a relatively wet period (prior to the 1960s) followed by a period of severe drought (1970s-1980s) with higher-frequency variability superimposed on this low-frequency background signal. Understanding precipitation variability like that which occurred over the 20th Century and its impact on Sahel precipitation is critically important for skillful hydroclimate predictions and disaster preparedness in the region. Previous work has shown that the WAM responds to both internal atmospheric variability and external oceanic forcing. A large fraction of 20th Century Sahel rainfall variability has been linked to nearby and remote oceanic forcing from the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans, suggesting that the ocean is the primary driver of variability. However, the mechanisms underlying the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing to land based precipitation and the relative importance of the roles of different basins are not as well understood. To this end, the work completed in this thesis examines the physical mechanisms linking oceanic forcing to recent precipitation variability in the Sahel and identifies them alongside large-scale environmental conditions. A series of moisture budget decomposition studies are performed for the Sahel in order to understand the processes that govern regional hydroclimate variability on decadal and interannual time scales. The results show that the oceanic forcing of atmospheric mass convergence and divergence explains the moisture balance patterns in the region to first order on the timescales considered. On decadal timescales, forcing by the Indian and Atlantic Oceans correlate strongly with precipitation variability. The combination of a warm Indian Ocean and negative gradient across the Atlantic forces anomalous circulation patterns that result in net moisture divergence by the mean and transient flow. Together with negative moisture advection, these processes result in a strong drying of the Sahel during the later part of the 20th Century. Diagnosis of moisture budget and circulation components within the main rainbelt and along the monsoon margins show that changes to the mass convergence are related to the magnitude of precipitation that falls in the region, while the advection of dry air is associated with the maximum latitudinal extent of precipitation. On interannual timescales, results show that warm conditions in the Eastern Tropical Pacific remotely force anomalously dry conditions primarily through affecting the low-troposphere mass divergence field. This behavior is related to increased subsidence over the tropical Atlantic and into the Sahel and an anomalous westward flow of moisture from the continent, both resulting in a coherent drying pattern. The interannual signal is then further explored, particularly in light of the expected link between the El Nino Southern Oscillation and dry conditions in the Sahel, notably unseen during the historic El Nino event of 2015. Motivated by this, recent El Nino years and their precipitation signature in the Sahel along with the associated large-scale environmental conditions are examined. Two different outcomes for Sahel summer season are defined; an anomalously wet or an anomalously dry season coincident with El Nino conditions. The different precipitation patterns are distinguished by increased moisture supply for the wet years, which can be driven by both regional oceanic conditions that favor increased moisture convergence over the continent as well as weaker El Nino forcing. Finally, a series of new idealized SST-forced experiments that explore the causal link between oceanic forcing and the response of convection in the region on daily time resolution are discussed and preliminary results shown. These experiments aim to understand how convection in the Sahel responds to SST forcing using transient model simulations that track the evolving response of the WAM through time, day-by-day, under different oceanic conditions. Preliminary results show the stark differences in seasonal precipitation that occur when anomalies of opposite sign are applied in parts of the Atlantic and Pacific basin. There is also a suggestion of a difference in the timing of the rainy season when the model is run with different SST configurations.

Mesoscale convective systems and nocturnal rainfall over the West African Sahel: role of the Inter-tropical front

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.

2018-01-01

A convection-permitting regional model simulation for August 2006 and observations are evaluated to better understand the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Sahel. In particular, reasons for a nocturnal rainfall maximum over parts of the Sahel during the height of the West African monsoon are investigated. A relationship between mesoscale convective system (MCS) activity and inter-tropical front (ITF)/dryline dynamics is revealed. Over 90% of the Sahel nocturnal rainfall derives from propagating MCSs that have been associated with topography in earlier studies. In contrast, in this case study, 70-90% of the nocturnal rainfall over the southern Sahel (11°N-14°N) west of 15°E is associated with MCSs that originate less than 1000 km upstream (to the north and east) in the afternoon, in a region largely devoid of significant orography. This MCS development occurs in association with the Sahel ITF, combined with atmospheric pre-conditioning. Daytime surface heating generates turbulent mixing that promotes planetary boundary layer (PBL) growth accompanied by a low-level reversal in the meridional flow. This enhances wind convergence in the low-level moist layer within 2°-3° of latitude of the equatorward side of the ITF. MCSs tend to form when this vertical mixing extends to the level of free convection and is accompanied by a mid-tropospheric African easterly wave disturbance to the east. This synoptic disturbance enhances the vertical wind shear and atmospheric instability over the genesis location. These results are found to be robust across the region.

How certain is desiccation in west African Sahel rainfall (1930-1990)?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chappell, Adrian; Agnew, Clive T.

2008-04-01

Hypotheses for the late 1960s to 1990 period of desiccation (secular decrease in rainfall) in the west African Sahel (WAS) are typically tested by comparing empirical evidence or model predictions against "observations" of Sahelian rainfall. The outcomes of those comparisons can have considerable influence on the understanding of regional and global environmental systems. Inverse-distance squared area-weighted (IDW) estimates of WAS rainfall observations are commonly aggregated over space to provide temporal patterns without uncertainty. Spatial uncertainty of WAS rainfall was determined using the median approximation sequential indicator simulation. Every year (1930-1990) 300 equally probable realizations of annual summer rainfall were produced to honor station observations, match percentiles of the observed cumulative distributions and indicator variograms and perform adequately during cross validation. More than 49% of the IDW mean annual rainfall fell outside the 5th and 95th percentiles for annual rainfall realization means. The IDW means represented an extreme realization. Uncertainty in desiccation was determined by repeatedly (100,000) sampling the annual distribution of rainfall realization means and by applying Mann-Kendall nonparametric slope detection and significance testing. All of the negative gradients for the entire period were statistically significant. None of the negative gradients for the expected desiccation period were statistically significant. The results support the presence of a long-term decline in annual rainfall but demonstrate that short-term desiccation (1965-1990) cannot be detected. Estimates of uncertainty for precipitation and other climate variables in this or other regions, or across the globe, are essential for the rigorous detection of spatial patterns and time series trends.

On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: an application to West African rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, D. L., II; Angus, M. P.; Tetteh, I. K.; Bello, G. A.; Padmanabhan, K.; Pendse, S. V.; Srinivas, S.; Yu, J.; Semazzi, F.; Kumar, V.; Samatova, N. F.

2014-04-01

Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression, and Dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall, including well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, as well as promising discoveries that invite further research by the climate science community.

Climatic information of Western Sahel (1535-1793 AD) in original documentary sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millán, V.; Rodrigo, F. S.

2014-09-01

The Sahel is the semi-arid transition zone between arid Sahara and humid tropical Africa, extending approximately 10-20° N from Mauritania in the West to Sudan in the East. The African continent, one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, is subject to frequent droughts and famine. One climate challenge research is to isolate those aspects of climate variability that are natural from those that are related to human influences. Therefore, the study of climatic conditions before mid-19th century, when anthropogenic influence was of minor importance, is very interesting. In this work the frequency of extreme events, such as droughts and floods, in Western Sahel from the 16th to 18th centuries is investigated using documentary data. Original manuscripts with historical chronicles from Walata and Nema (Mauritania), Timbuktu and Arawan (Mali), and Agadez (Niger) have been analyzed. Information on droughts, intense rainfall, storms and floods, as well as socioeconomic aspects (famines, pests, scarcity, prosperity) has been codified in an ordinal scale ranging from -2 (drought and famines) to +2 (floods) to obtain a numerical index of the annual rainfall in the region. Results show wet conditions in the 17th century, as well as dry conditions in the 18th century (interrupted by a short wet period in the 1730s decade).

On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: an application to West African rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, D. L., II; Angus, M. P.; Tetteh, I. K.; Bello, G. A.; Padmanabhan, K.; Pendse, S. V.; Srinivas, S.; Yu, J.; Semazzi, F.; Kumar, V.; Samatova, N. F.

2015-01-01

Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall~variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression, and dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall. These relationships fall into two categories: well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, such as the relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and putative links, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, that invite further research.

On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: An application to West African rainfall

DOE PAGES

Gonzalez, II, D. L.; Angus, M. P.; Tetteh, I. K.; ...

2015-01-13

Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall~variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression,more » and dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall. As a result, these relationships fall into two categories: well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, such as the relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and putative links, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, that invite further research.« less

On regreening and degradation in Sahelian watersheds.

PubMed

Kaptué, Armel T; Prihodko, Lara; Hanan, Niall P

2015-09-29

Over many decades our understanding of the impacts of intermittent drought in water-limited environments like the West African Sahel has been influenced by a narrative of overgrazing and human-induced desertification. The desertification narrative has persisted in both scientific and popular conception, such that recent regional-scale recovery ("regreening") and local success stories (community-led conservation efforts) in the Sahel, following the severe droughts of the 1970s-1980s, are sometimes ignored. Here we report a study of watershed-scale vegetation dynamics in 260 watersheds, sampled in four regions of Senegal, Mali, and Niger from 1983-2012, using satellite-derived vegetation indices as a proxy for net primary production. In response to earlier controversy, we first examine the shape of the rainfall-net primary production relationship and how it impacts conclusions regarding greening or degradation. We conclude that the choice of functional relationship has little quantitative impact on our ability to infer greening or degradation trends. We then present an approach to analyze changes in long-term (decade-scale) average rain-use efficiency (an indicator of slowly responding vegetation structural changes) relative to changes in interannual-scale rainfall sensitivity (an indicator of landscape ability to respond rapidly to rainfall variability) to infer trends in greening/degradation of the watersheds in our sample regions. The predominance of increasing rain-use efficiency in our data supports earlier reports of a "greening" trend across the Sahel. However, there are strong regional differences in the extent and direction of change, and in the apparent role of changing woody and herbaceous components in driving those temporal trends.

Sensitivity of Sahelian Precipitation to Desert Dust under ENSO variability: a regional modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, A.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2016-12-01

Mineral dust is estimated to comprise over half the total global aerosol burden, with a majority coming from the Sahara and Sahel region. Bounded by the Sahara Desert to the north and the Sahelian Savannah to the south, the Sahel experiences high interannual rainfall variability and a short rainy season during the boreal summer months. Observation-based data for the past three decades indicates a reduced dust emission trend, together with an increase in greening and surface roughness within the Sahel. Climate models used to study regional precipitation changes due to Saharan dust yield varied results, both in sign convention and magnitude. Inconsistency of model estimates drives future climate projections for the region that are highly varied and uncertain. We use the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to quantify the interaction and feedback between desert dust aerosol and Sahelian precipitation. Using nested domains at fine spatial resolution we resolve changes to mesoscale atmospheric circulation patterns due to dust, for representative phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NU-WRF regional earth system model offers both advanced land surface data and resolvable detail of the mechanisms of the impact of Saharan dust. Results are compared to our previous work assessed over the Western Sahel using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2Mc global climate model, and to other previous regional climate model studies. This prompts further research to help explain the dust-precipitation relationship and recent North African dust emission trends. This presentation will offer a quantitative analysis of differences in radiation budget, energy and moisture fluxes, and atmospheric dynamics due to desert dust aerosol over the Sahel.

Predictability of malaria parameters in Sahel under the S4CAST Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diouf, Ibrahima; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belen; Deme, Abdoulaye; Cisse, Moustapha; Ndione, Jaques-Andre; Gaye, Amadou; Suárez-Moreno, Roberto

2016-04-01

An extensive literature exists documenting the ENSO impacts on infectious diseases, including malaria. Other studies, however, have already focused on cholera, dengue and Rift Valley Fever. This study explores the seasonal predictability of malaria outbreaks over Sahel from previous SSTs of Pacific and Atlantic basins. The SST may be considered as a source of predictability due to its direct influence on rainfall and temperature, thus also other related variables like malaria parameters. In this work, the model has been applied to the study of predictability of the Sahelian malaria parameters from the leading MCA covariability mode in the framework of climate and health issue. The results of this work will be useful for decision makers to better access to climate forecasts and application on malaria transmission risk.

Applying Customized Climate Advisory Information to Translate Extreme Rainfall Events into Farming Options in the Sudan-Sahel of West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salack, S.; Worou, N. O.; Sanfo, S.; Nikiema, M. P.; Boubacar, I.; Paturel, J. E.; Tondoh, E. J.

2017-12-01

In West Africa, the risk of food insecurity linked to the low productivity of small holder farming increases as a result of rainfall extremes. In its recent evolution, the rainy season in the Sudan-Sahel zone presents mixed patterns of extreme climatic events. In addition to intense rain events, the distribution of events is associated with pockets of intra-seasonal long dry spells. The negative consequences of these mixed patterns are obvious on the farm: soil water logging, erosion of arable land, dwartness and dessication of crops, and loss in production. The capacity of local farming communities to respond accordingly to rainfall extreme events is often constrained by lack of access to climate information and advisory on smart crop management practices that can help translate extreme rainfall events into farming options. The objective of this work is to expose the framework and the pre-liminary results of a scheme that customizes climate-advisory information package delivery to subsistence farmers in Bakel (Senegal), Ouahigouya & Dano (Burkina Faso) and Bolgatanga (Ghana) for sustainable family agriculture. The package is based on the provision of timely climate information (48-hours, dekadal & seasonal) embedded with smart crop management practices to explore and exploite the potential advantage of intense rainfall and extreme dry spells in millet, maize, sorghum and cowpea farming communities. It is sent via mobile phones and used on selected farms (i.e agro-climatic farm schools) on which some small on-farm infrastructure were built to alleviate negative impacts of weather. Results provide prominent insight on how co-production of weather/climate information, customized access and guidiance on its use can induce fast learning (capacity building of actors), motivation for adaptation, sustainability, potential changes in cropping system, yields and family income in the face of a rainfall extremes at local scales of Sudan-Sahel of West Africa. Keywords: Climate Information, Smart Practices, Farming Options, Agro-Climatic Farm Schools, Sudan-Sahel

Investigating the role of the land surface in explaining the interannual variation of the net radiation balance over the Western Sahara and sub-Sahara

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Nicholson, Sharon

1987-01-01

The status of the data sets is discussed. Progress was made in both data analysis and modeling areas. The atmospheric and land surface contributions to the net radiation budget over the Sahara-Sahel region is being decoupled. The interannual variability of these two processes was investigated and this variability related to seasonal rainfall fluctuations. A modified Barnes objective analysis scheme was developed which uses an eliptic scan pattern and a 3-pass iteration of the difference fields.

West African Monsoon dynamics in idealized simulations: the competitive roles of SST warming and CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaetani, Marco; Flamant, Cyrille; Hourdin, Frederic; Bastin, Sophie; Braconnot, Pascale; Bony, Sandrine

2015-04-01

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is affected by large climate variability at different timescales, from interannual to multidecadal, with strong environmental and socio-economic impacts associated to climate-related rainfall variability, especially in the Sahelian belt. State-of-the-art coupled climate models still show poor ability in correctly simulating the WAM past variability and also a large spread is observed in future climate projections. In this work, the July-to-September (JAS) WAM variability in the period 1979-2008 is studied in AMIP-like simulations (SST-forced) from CMIP5. The individual roles of global SST warming and CO2 concentration increasing are investigated through idealized experiments simulating a 4K warmer SST and a 4x CO2 concentration, respectively. Results show a dry response in Sahel to SST warming, with dryer conditions over western Sahel. On the contrary, wet conditions are observed when CO2 is increased, with the strongest response over central-eastern Sahel. The precipitation changes are associated to modifications in the regional atmospheric circulation: dry (wet) conditions are associated with reduced (increased) convergence in the lower troposphere, a southward (northward) shift of the African Easterly Jet, and a weaker (stronger) Tropical Easterly Jet. The co-variability between global SST and WAM precipitation is also investigated, highlighting a reorganization of the main co-variability modes. Namely, in the 4xCO2 simulation the influence of Tropical Pacific is dominant, while it is reduced in the 4K simulation, which also shows an increased coupling with the eastern Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The above results suggest a competitive action of SST warming and CO2 increasing on the WAM climate variability, with opposite effects on precipitation. The combination of the observed positive and negative response in precipitation, with wet conditions in central-eastern Sahel and dry conditions in western Sahel, is consistent with the future precipitation trends over West Africa resulting from CMIP5 coupled simulations. It is argued that the large spread in CMIP5 future projections may be related to the weight given to SST warming and direct CO2 effect by individual models. The capability of climate models in reproducing the SST-precipitation relationship appears to be crucial in this respect.

On regreening and degradation in Sahelian watersheds

PubMed Central

Kaptué, Armel T.; Prihodko, Lara; Hanan, Niall P.

2015-01-01

Over many decades our understanding of the impacts of intermittent drought in water-limited environments like the West African Sahel has been influenced by a narrative of overgrazing and human-induced desertification. The desertification narrative has persisted in both scientific and popular conception, such that recent regional-scale recovery (“regreening”) and local success stories (community-led conservation efforts) in the Sahel, following the severe droughts of the 1970s–1980s, are sometimes ignored. Here we report a study of watershed-scale vegetation dynamics in 260 watersheds, sampled in four regions of Senegal, Mali, and Niger from 1983–2012, using satellite-derived vegetation indices as a proxy for net primary production. In response to earlier controversy, we first examine the shape of the rainfall–net primary production relationship and how it impacts conclusions regarding greening or degradation. We conclude that the choice of functional relationship has little quantitative impact on our ability to infer greening or degradation trends. We then present an approach to analyze changes in long-term (decade-scale) average rain-use efficiency (an indicator of slowly responding vegetation structural changes) relative to changes in interannual-scale rainfall sensitivity (an indicator of landscape ability to respond rapidly to rainfall variability) to infer trends in greening/degradation of the watersheds in our sample regions. The predominance of increasing rain-use efficiency in our data supports earlier reports of a “greening” trend across the Sahel. However, there are strong regional differences in the extent and direction of change, and in the apparent role of changing woody and herbaceous components in driving those temporal trends. PMID:26371296

Simulation of Tropical Rainfall Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bader, J.; Latif, M.

2002-12-01

The impact of sea surface temperature (SST) - especially the role of the tropical Atlantic meridional SST gradient and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation - on precipitation is investigated with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4/T42. Ensemble experiments - driven with observed SST - show that Atlantic SST has a significant influence on precipitation over West Africa and northeast Brazil. SST sensitivity experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced or decreased by one Kelvin in certain ocean areas. Changing SST in the eastern tropical Atlantic caused only significant changes along the Guinea Coast, with a positive anomaly (SSTA) increasing rainfall and a negative SSTA reducing it. The response was nearly linear. Changing SST in other ocean areas caused significant changes over West Africa, especially in the Sahel area. The response is found to be non linear, with only negative SSTA leading to significant reduction in Sahel rainfall. Also, the impact of the SSTAs from the different ocean regions was not additive with respect to the rainfall. The influence of SST on precipitation over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) was also investigated. Three experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced/decreased or decreased/enhanced by one Kelvin in the North/South Atlantic and increased by two Kelvin in the Nino3 ocean area. All experiments caused significant changes over Nordeste, with an enhanced/reduced SST gradient in the Atlantic increasing/reducing rainfall. The response was nearly linear. The main effect of the Atlantic SST gradient was a shift of the ITCZ, caused by trade wind changes. The ''El Nino'' event generates a significant reduction in Nordeste rainfall. A significant positive SLP anomaly occurs in northeast Brazil which may be associated with the descending branch of the Walker circulation. Also a significant positive SLP over the Atlantic from 30S to 10N north occurs. This results in a reduced SLP gradient from the subtropical highs to the equator and a weakening of the trade winds.

North Atlantic influence on 19th-20th century rainfall in the Dead Sea watershed, teleconnections with the Sahel, and implication for Holocene climate fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushnir, Yochanan; Stein, Mordechai

2010-12-01

The importance of understanding processes that govern the hydroclimate of the Mediterranean Basin is highlighted by the projected significant drying of the region in response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we study the long-term hydroclimatic variability of the central Levant region, situated in the eastern boundary of the Basin, as reveled by instrumental observations and the Holocene record of Dead Sea level variations. Observations of 19th and 20th century precipitation in the Dead Sea watershed region display a multidecadal, anti-phase relationship to North Atlantic (NAtl) sea surface temperature (SST) variability, such that when the NAtl is relatively cold, Jerusalem experiences higher than normal precipitation and vice versa. This association is underlined by a negative correlation to precipitation in the sub-Saharan Sahel and a positive correlation to precipitation in western North America, areas that are also affected by multidecadal NAtl SST variability. These observations are consistent with a broad range of Holocene hydroclimatic fluctuations from the epochal, to the millennial and centennial time scales, as displayed by the Dead Sea lake level, by lake levels in the Sahel, and by direct and indirect proxy indicators of NAtl SSTs. On the epochal time scale, the gradual cooling of NAtl SSTs throughout the Holocene in response to precession-driven reduction of summer insolation is associated with previously well-studied wet-to-dry transition in the Sahel and with a general increase in Dead Sea lake levels from low stands after the Younger Dryas to higher stands in the mid- to late-Holocene. On the millennial and centennial time scales there is also evidence for an anti-phase relationship between Holocene variations in the Dead Sea and Sahelian lake levels and with proxy indicators of NAtl SSTs. However the records are punctuated by abrupt lake-level drops, which appear to be in-phase and which occur during previously documented abrupt major cooling events in the Northern Hemisphere. We propose that the mechanisms by which NAtl SSTs affect precipitation in the central Levant is related to the tendency for high (low) pressure anomalies to persist over the eastern North Atlantic/Western Mediterranean region when the Basin is cold (warm). This, in turn, affects the likelihood of cold air outbreaks and cyclogenesis in the Eastern Mediterranean and, consequently, rainfall in the central Levant region. Depending on its phase, this natural mechanism can alleviate or exacerbate the anthropogenic impact on the regions' hydroclimatic future.

A note on Bjerkne's hypothesis for North Atlantic variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bryan, Kirk; Stouffer, Ron

1991-01-01

On decadal time-scales the historical surface temperature record over land in the Northern Hemisphere is dominated by polar amplified variations. These variations are coherent with SST anomalies concentrated in the Northwest Atlantic, but extending with lesser amplitude into the North Pacific as well. Bierknes suggested that multi-year SST anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic were due to irregular changes in the intensity of the thermohaline circulation. In support of the Bjerknes hypothesis there is evidence that winter overturning in the Labrador Sea was suppressed for a brief period from 1967-1969 by a cap of relative fresh water at the surface. Cause and effect are unclear, but this event was associated with a marked cooling of the entire Northern Hemisphere. The difference in SST averaged over the Northern Hemisphere oceans and SST averaged over the Southern Hemisphere oceans from the equator to 40°S is coherent with Sahel summer rainfall on decadal time scales. Empirical evidence is supported by numerical experiments with the British Meteorological Office atmospheric climate model which simulate augmented monsoonal rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa in response to realistic warm SST anomalies in the Northwest Atlantic. A coupled ocean-atmosphere global model exhibits two equilibrium climate states. One has an active thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic and the other does not. The two climate states provide an extreme example which illustrates the type of large scale air sea interaction Bjerknes visualized as a mechanism for North Atlantic climate variability on decadal time-scales.

The Role of Rainfall Patterns in Seasonal Malaria Transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, A.

2010-12-01

Seasonal total precipitation is well known to affect malaria transmission because Anopheles mosquitoes depend on standing water for breeding habitat. However, the within-season temporal pattern of the rainfall influences persistence of standing water and thus rainfall patterns also affect mosquito population dynamics. In this talk, I show that intraseasonal rainfall pattern describes 40% of the variance in simulated mosquito abundance in a Niger Sahel village where malaria is endemic but highly seasonal, demonstrating the necessity for detailed distributed hydrology modeling to explain the variance from this important effect. I apply a field validated, high spatial- and temporal-resolution hydrology model coupled with an entomology model. Using synthetic rainfall time series generated using a stationary first-order Markov Chain model, I hold all variables except hourly rainfall constant, thus isolating the contribution of rainfall pattern to variance in mosquito abundance. I further show the utility of hydrology modeling to assess precipitation effects by analyzing collected water. Time-integrated surface area of pools explains 70% of the variance in mosquito abundance, and time-integrated surface area of pools persisting longer than seven days explains 82% of the variance, showing an improved predictive ability when pool persistence is explicitly modeled at high spatio-temporal resolution. I extend this analysis to investigate the impacts of this effect on malaria vector mosquito populations under climate shift scenarios, holding all climate variables except precipitation constant. In these scenarios, rainfall mean and variance change with climatic change, and the modeling approach evaluates the impact of non-stationarity in rainfall and the associated rainfall patterns on expected mosquito activity.

Impact of vegetation removal and soil aridation on diurnal temperature range in a semiarid region: Application to the Sahel

PubMed Central

Zhou, Liming; Dickinson, Robert E.; Tian, Yuhong; Vose, Russell S.; Dai, Yongjiu

2007-01-01

Increased clouds and precipitation normally decrease the diurnal temperature range (DTR) and thus have commonly been offered as explanation for the trend of reduced DTR observed for many land areas over the last several decades. Observations show, however, that the DTR was reduced most in dry regions and especially in the West African Sahel during a period of unprecedented drought. Furthermore, the negative trend of DTR in the Sahel appears to have stopped and may have reversed after the rainfall began to recover. This study develops a hypothesis with climate model sensitivity studies showing that either a reduction in vegetation cover or a reduction in soil emissivity would reduce the DTR by increasing nighttime temperature through increased soil heating and reduced outgoing longwave radiation. Consistent with empirical analyses of observational data, our results suggest that vegetation removal and soil aridation would act to reduce the DTR during periods of drought and human mismanagement over semiarid regions such as the Sahel and to increase the DTR with more rainfall and better human management. Other mechanisms with similar effects on surface energy balance, such as increased nighttime downward longwave radiation due to increased greenhouse gases, aerosols, and clouds, would also be expected to have a larger impact on DTR over drier regions. PMID:17986620

Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations.

PubMed

Taylor, Christopher M; Belušić, Danijel; Guichard, Françoise; Parker, Douglas J; Vischel, Théo; Bock, Olivier; Harris, Phil P; Janicot, Serge; Klein, Cornelia; Panthou, Gérémy

2017-04-26

The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify under global warming, with studies reporting more frequent extreme rain events in many regions of the world, and predicting increases in future flood frequency. Such early, predominantly mid-latitude observations are essential because of shortcomings within climate models in their depiction of convective rainfall. A globally important group of intense storms-mesoscale convective systems (MCSs)-poses a particular challenge, because they organize dynamically on spatial scales that cannot be resolved by conventional climate models. Here, we use 35 years of satellite observations from the West African Sahel to reveal a persistent increase in the frequency of the most intense MCSs. Sahelian storms are some of the most powerful on the planet, and rain gauges in this region have recorded a rise in 'extreme' daily rainfall totals. We find that intense MCS frequency is only weakly related to the multidecadal recovery of Sahel annual rainfall, but is highly correlated with global land temperatures. Analysis of trends across Africa reveals that MCS intensification is limited to a narrow band south of the Sahara desert. During this period, wet-season Sahelian temperatures have not risen, ruling out the possibility that rainfall has intensified in response to locally warmer conditions. On the other hand, the meridional temperature gradient spanning the Sahel has increased in recent decades, consistent with anthropogenic forcing driving enhanced Saharan warming. We argue that Saharan warming intensifies convection within Sahelian MCSs through increased wind shear and changes to the Saharan air layer. The meridional gradient is projected to strengthen throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting that the Sahel will experience particularly marked increases in extreme rain. The remarkably rapid intensification of Sahelian MCSs since the 1980s sheds new light on the response of organized tropical convection to global warming, and challenges conventional projections made by general circulation models.

Coherent response of the Indo-African boreal summer monsoon to Pacific SST captured in Ethiopian rain δ18O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhavan, M.; Palliyil, L. R.; Ramesh, R.

2017-12-01

Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) plays an important role in the inter-annual to inter-decadal variability of boreal monsoons. We identified a common mode of inter annual variability in the Indian and African boreal summer monsoon (June to September) rainfalls, which is linked to Pacific SSTs, using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. Temporal coefficients (Principle component: PC1) of the leading mode of variability (EOF-1) is well correlated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and Sahel rainfall. About forty year long monthly observations of δ18O (and δD) at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia show a strong association with PC1 (r=0.69 for δ18O and r=0.75 for δD). Analysis of SST, sea level pressure and lower tropospheric winds suggest that 18O depletion in Ethiopian rainfall (and wet phases of PC1) is associated with cooler eastern tropical Pacific and warmer western Pacific and strengthening of Pacific subtropical high in both the hemispheres. Associated changes in the trade winds cause enhanced westerly moisture transport into the Indian subcontinent and northern Africa and cause enhanced rainfall. The intrusion of Atlantic westerly component of moisture transport at Addis Ababa during wet phases of PC1 is clearly recorded in δ18O of rain. We also observe the same common mode of variability (EOF1) of Indo-African boreal summer monsoon rain on decadal time scales. A 100 year long δ18O record of actively growing speleothem from the Mechara cave, Ethiopia, matches very well with the PC1 on the decadal time scale. This highlights the potential of speleothem δ18O and leaf wax δD from Ethiopia to investigate the natural variability and teleconnections of Indo-African boreal monsoon.

Late Holocene interdecadal climate variability in the Sahel: inferences from a marine dust record offshore Senegal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, I.; Stuut, J.-B.; Mollenhauer, G.; Mulitza, S.; Zabel, M.

2009-04-01

Present-day climate in northwestern Africa strongly depends on the avaiability of water. At least since the Pliocene the Saharan Desert and the semiarid Sahel belt (tropical North Afrika) have been frequently affected by sudden shifts to more arid climate. The rate of change from arid to humid conditions is presently under heavy debate (e.g., deMenocal et al., 2001, Kröpelin et al., 2008). A recent example of abrupt droughts occurred in the early 70's and 80's of the last century. In this study we compare different high-resolution marine sediment records of Sahel climate variability from the Senegal mud belt, northwest Africa. Marine sediment cores show the variations of terrigenous input (both aeolian dust and fluvial matter) from the African continent. Due to their different distinctive grain-size distributions, aeolian dust and fluvial mud can be recognised and quantified in marine sediments (e.g., Stuut et al., 2002). Based on these variations in the grain-size distributions of the terrigenous sediment fraction, deconvolved with an end-member modelling algorithm (Weltje, 1997), are used to reconstruct rainfall variability and dust production on land for the last 4,000 years. References P. B. deMenocal, et al. (2001). Late Holocene Cultural Responses to Climate Change During the Holocene. Science 292, 667 S. Kröpelin, et al. (2008) Response to Comment on "Climate-Driven Ecosystem Succession in the Sahara: The Past 6000 Years" Science 322, 1326c G. J. Weltje (1997) End-member modeling of compositional data: Numerical-statistical algorithms for solving the explicit mixing problem. Mathematical Geology 9, 4

Coupled ocean-atmosphere surface variability and its climate impacts in the tropical Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fontaine, B.; Janicot, Serge; Roucou, P.

This study examines time evolution and statistical relationships involving the two leading ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability in the tropical Atlantic and some climate anomalies over the tropical 120°W-60°W region using selected historical files (75-y near global SSTs and precipitation over land), more recent observed data (30-y SST and pseudo wind stress in the tropical Atlantic) and reanalyses from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis System on the period 1968-1997: surface air temperature, sea level pressure, moist static energy content at 850 hPa, precipitable water and precipitation. The first coupled mode detected through singular value decomposition of the SST and pseudo wind-stress data over the tropical Atlantic (30°N-20°S) expresses a modulation in the thermal transequatorial gradient of SST anomalies conducted by one month leading wind-stress anomalies mainly in the tropical north Atlantic during northern winter and fall. It features a slight dipole structure in the meridional plane. Its time variability is dominated by a quasi-decadal signal well observed in the last 20-30 ys and, when projected over longer-term SST data, in the 1920s and 1930s but with shorter periods. The second coupled mode is more confined to the south-equatorial tropical Atlantic in the northern summer and explains considerably less wind-stress/SST cross-covariance. Its time series features an interannual variability dominated by shorter frequencies with increased variance in the 1960s and 1970s before 1977. Correlations between these modes and the ENSO-like Nino3 index lead to decreasing amplitude of thermal anomalies in the tropical Atlantic during warm episodes in the Pacific. This could explain the nonstationarity of meridional anomaly gradients on seasonal and interannual time scales. Overall the relationships between the oceanic component of the coupled modes and the climate anomaly patterns denote thermodynamical processes at the ocean/atmosphere interface that create anomaly gradients in the meridional plane in a way which tends to alter the north-south movement of the seasonal cycle. This appears to be consistent with the intrinsic non-dipole character of the tropical Atlantic surface variability at the interannual time step and over the recent period, but produces abnormal amplitude and/or delayed excursions of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Connections with continental rainfall are approached through three (NCEP/NCAR and observed) rainfall indexes over the Nordeste region in Brazil, and the Guinea and Sahel zones in West Africa. These indices appear to be significantly linked to the SST component of the coupled modes only when the two Atlantic modes+the ENSO-like Nino3 index are taken into account in the regressions. This suggests that thermal forcing of continental rainfall is particularly sensitive to the linear combinations of some basic SST patterns, in particular to those that create meridional thermal gradients. The first mode in the Atlantic is associated with transequatorial pressure, moist static energy and precipitable water anomaly patterns which can explain abnormal location of the ITCZ particularly in northern winter, and hence rainfall variations in Nordeste. The second mode is more associated with in-phase variations of the same variables near the southern edge of the ITCZ, particularly in the Gulf of Guinea during the northern spring and winter. It is primarily linked to the amplitude and annual phase of the ITCZ excursions and thus to rainfall variations in Guinea. Connections with Sahel rainfall are less clear due to the difficulty for the model to correctly capture interannual variability over that region but the second Atlantic mode and the ENSO-like Pacific variability are clearly involved in the Sahel climate interannual fluctuations: anomalous dry (wet) situations tend to occur when warmer (cooler) waters are present in the eastern Pacific and the gulf of Guinea in northern summer which contribute to create a northward (southward) transequatorial anomaly gradient in sea level pressure over West Africa.

Contrasting conditions of surface water balance in wet years and dry years as a possible land surface-atmosphere feedback mechanism in the West African Sahel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lare, A. R.; Nicholson, S. E.

1994-01-01

The climate of West Africa, in particular the Sahel, is characterized by multiyear persistence of anomalously wet or dry conditions. Its Southern Hemisphere counterpart, the Kalahari, lacks the persistence that is evident in the Sahel even though both regions are subject to similar large-scale forcing. It has been suggested that land surface-atmosphere feedback contributes to this persistence and to the severity of drought. In this study, surface energy and water balance are quantified for nine stations along a latitudinal transect that extends from the Sahara to the Guinea coast. In the wetter regions of West Africa, the difference between wet and dry years is primarily reflected in the magnitude of runoff. For the Sahel and drier locations, evapotranspiration and soil moisture are more sensitive to rainfall anomalies. The increase in evapotranspiration, and hence latent heating, over the Sahel in wet years alters the thermal structure and gradients of the overlying atmosphere and thus the strength of the African easterly jet (AEJ) at 700 mb. The difference between dry and wet Augusts corresponds to a decrease in magnitude of the AEJ at 15 deg N on the order of 2.6 m/s, which is consistent with previous studies of observed winds. Spatial patterns were also developed for surface water balance parameters for both West Africa and southern Africa. Over southern Africa, the patterns are not as spatially homogeneous as those over West Africa and are lower in magnitude, thus supporting the suggestion that the persistence of rainfall anomalies in the Sahel might be due, at least in part, to land-atmosphere feedback, and that the absence of such persistence in the Kalahari is a consequence of less significant changes in surface water and energy balance.

Representing soil moisture - precipitation feedbacks in the Sahel: spatial scale and parameterisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, C.; Birch, C.; Parker, D.; Guichard, F.; Nikulin, G.; Dixon, N.

2013-12-01

Land surface properties influence the life cycle of convective systems across West Africa via space-time variability in sensible and latent heat fluxes. Previous observational and modelling studies have shown that areas with strong mesoscale variability in vegetation cover or soil moisture induce coherent structures in the daytime planetary boundary layer. In particular, horizontal gradients in sensible heat flux can induce convergence zones which favour the initiation of deep convection. A recent study based on satellite data (Taylor et al. 2011), illustrated the climatological importance of soil moisture gradients in the initiation of long-lived Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) in the Sahel. Here we provide a unique assessment of how models of different spatial resolutions represent soil moisture - precipitation feedbacks in the region, and compare their behaviour to observations. Specifically we examine whether the inability of large-scale models to capture the observed preference for afternoon rain over drier soil in semi-arid regions [Taylor et al., 2012] is due to inadequate spatial resolution and/or systematic bias in convective parameterisations. Firstly, we use a convection-permitting simulation at 4km resolution to explore the underlying mechanisms responsible for soil moisture controls on daytime convective initiation in the Sahel. The model reproduces very similar spatial structure as the observations in terms of antecedent soil moisture in the vicinity of a large sample of convective initiations. We then examine how this same model, run at coarser resolution, simulates the feedback of soil moisture on daily rainfall. In particular we examine the impact of switching on the convective parameterisation on rainfall persistence, and compare the findings with 10 regional climate models (RCMs). Finally, we quantify the impact of the feedback on dry-spell return times using a simple statistical model. The results highlight important weaknesses in convective parameterisations which are likely to impact land surface sensitivity studies and hydroclimatic variability on certain time and space scales. Taylor, C.M., Gounou, A., Guichard, F., Harris, P.P., Ellis, R.J.,Couvreux, F., and M. De Kauwe. 2011, Frequency of Sahelian storm initiation enhanced over mesoscale soil-moisture patterns, Nature Geoscience, 4, 430-433, doi:10.1038/ngeo1173 Taylor, C.M., de Jeu, R.A.M., Guichard, F., Harris, P.P, and W.A. Dorigo. 2012, Afternoon rain more likely over drier soils, Nature, 489, 423-426, doi:10.1038/nature11377

Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Pohl, Benjamin; Robson, Jon; Dong, Buwen

2017-11-01

The impact of the increase of greenhouse gases on Sahelian precipitation is very uncertain in both its spatial pattern and magnitude. In particular, the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcings depends on the time horizon considered in the climate projection. In this study we address the respective roles of the internal climate variability versus external forcings on Sahelian precipitation by using the data from the CESM Large Ensemble Project, which consists of a 40 member ensemble performed with the CESM1-CAM5 coupled model for the period 1920-2100. We show that CESM1-CAM5 is able to simulate the mean and interannual variability of Sahel precipitation, and is representative of a CMIP5 ensemble of simulations (i.e. it simulates the same pattern of precipitation change along with equivalent magnitude and seasonal cycle changes as the CMIP5 ensemble mean). However, CESM1-CAM5 underestimates the long-term decadal variability in Sahel precipitation. For short-term (2010-2049) and mid-term (2030-2069) projections the simulated internal variability component is able to obscure the projected impact of the external forcing. For long-term (2060-2099) projections external forcing induced change becomes stronger than simulated internal variability. Precipitation changes are found to be more robust over the central Sahel than over the western Sahel, where climate change effects struggle to emerge. Ten (thirty) members are needed to separate the 10 year averaged forced response from climate internal variability response in the western Sahel for a long-term (short-term) horizon. Over the central Sahel two members (ten members) are needed for a long-term (short-term) horizon.

Combined Effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Lake Chad Level Variability Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Okonkwo, Churchill; Demoz, Belay; Sakai, Ricardo; Ichoku, Charles; Anarado, Chigozie; Adegoke, Jimmy; Amadou, Angelina; Abdullahi, Sanusu Imran

2015-01-01

In this study, the combined effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Lake Chad (LC) level variability is explored. Our results show that the lake level at the Bol monitoring station has a statistically significant correlation with precipitation (R2 = 0.6, at the 99.5% confidence level). The period between the late 1960s and early 1970s marked a turning point in the response of the regional rainfall to climatic drivers, thereby severely affecting the LC level. Our results also suggest that the negative impact of the cold phase of AMO on Sahel precipitation masks and supersedes the positive effect of La Niña in the early the 1970s. The drop in the size of LC level from 282.5 m in the early 1960s to about 278.1 m in 1983/1984 was the largest to occur within the period of study (1900-2010) and coincides with the combined cold phase of AMO and strong El Niño phase of ENSO. Further analyses show that the current warm phase of AMO and increasing La Niña episodes appear to be playing a major role in the increased precipitation in the Sahel region. The LC level is responding to this increase in precipitation by a gradual recovery, though it is still below the levels of the 1960s. This understanding of the AMO-ENSO-rainfall-LC level association will help in forecasting the impacts of similar combined episodes in the future. These findings also have implications for long-term water resources management in the LC region.

Hydrodynamic behaviour of crusted soils in the Sahel: a possible cause for runoff increase?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malam Abdou, M.; Vandervaere, J.-P.; Bouzou Moussa, I.; Descroix, L.

2012-04-01

Crusted soils are in extension in the Sahel. As rainfall has decreased over the past decades (it is now increasing again in the central Sahel) and no significant change was observed in rainfall intensity and in its time and space distribution, it is supposed that land use management is the main cause for crusts cover increase. Fallow shortening, lack of manure, and land overexploitation (wood harvesting, overgrazing) are frequently cited as main factors of soil degradation. Based on field measurements in some small catchments of Western Niger, the hydrodynamics behaviour of the newly crusted soils of this area is described, mostly constituted by erosion crusts. A strong fall in soil saturated conductivity and in the active porosity as well as a rise in bulk density all lead to a quick onset of runoff production. Results are shown from field experiments in sedimentary and basement areas leading to similar conclusions. In both contexts, runoff plot production was measured at the rain event scale from 10-m2 parcels as well as at the catchment outlet. Soil saturated conductivity was reduced by one order of magnitude when crusting occurs, leading to a sharp runoff coefficient increase, from 4% in a weeded millet field and 10% in an old fallow to more than 60% in a erosion-crusted topsoil at the plot scale. At the experimental catchment scale, runoff coefficient has doubled in less than 20 years. In pure Sahelian basins, this resulted in endorheism breaching, and in a widespread river discharge increase. For some right bank tributaries of the Niger River, discharge is three times higher now than before the drought years, in spite of the remaining rainfall deficit. On the other hand, a general increase in flooding hazard frequency is observed in the whole Sahelian stripe. The role of surface crusts in the Sahel is discussed leading to the implementation of new experiments in the future.

Hydrology, Ecology and Pastoralism in the Sahel: Abrupt Changes in Surface Water Dynamics in a Coupled Natural-Human System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanan, N. P.; Prihodko, L.

2008-12-01

The Sahelian region of Africa is situated to the south of the Sahara desert, stretching from Senegal in the West to Sudan in the East. It is an area with semi-arid climate (300-600 mm mean annual precipitation) and long, severe, dry seasons (8-9 months without rain). Sahelian vegetation consists of extensive annual grasslands, with low tree and shrub density (generally < 5% canopy cover). Though rainfall limits the productivity of Sahelian vegetation, this self-same water limitation means that nutrients are relatively available and the nutrient value and digestibility of Sahelian vegetation is much higher than in the adjacent (wetter) savannas to the south. For this reason, the Sahel is a prized grazing resource. However, because domestic animals (cattle, sheep, goats) require regular access to drinking water, most areas of the Sahel are only accessible for grazing during the short rainy season while ephemeral surface pools persist. We will describe observations on one such ephemeral pool in northern Mali which underwent an unexpected transition from ephemeral to perennial during the years of average rainfall (1988-1992) following the severe Sahelian drought of 1985-86. As a result of this transformation a small village has established beside the lake and 5-10 thousand cattle now routinely remain in the watershed throughout the dry season. In this paper the dynamics that may have caused the shift from stable ephemeral lake to stable perennial lake, with no long-term increase in rainfall, will be explored. We will examine hypotheses for the change and how it may have arisen through interactions between hydrology, ecology, climate, humans, their livestock, and land use patterns in the lake catchment. It is likely that biological and physical thresholds were exceeded during the drought to trigger a temporary state change in the lake from ephemeral to perennial, which then triggered a socio-economic reorganization. We hypothesize that the resulting change in land use may now maintain the lake in its 'perennial' state. For how long remains uncertain. We will, furthermore, explore reports from elsewhere in the Sahel suggesting that this phenomenon may not be unique in space or time. If our hypotheses are correct, the interactions and feedbacks operating in our catchment may have broad implications for the ecology and management of the wider Sahel region.

Assessment of the impact of climate shifts on malaria transmission in the Sahel.

PubMed

Bomblies, Arne; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2009-09-01

Climate affects malaria transmission through a complex network of causative pathways. We seek to evaluate the impact of hypothetical climate change scenarios on malaria transmission in the Sahel by using a novel mechanistic, high spatial- and temporal-resolution coupled hydrology and agent-based entomology model. The hydrology model component resolves individual precipitation events and individual breeding pools. The impact of future potential climate shifts on the representative Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, is estimated by forcing the model of Banizoumbou environment with meteorological data from two locations along the north-south climatological gradient observed in the Sahel--both for warmer, drier scenarios from the north and cooler, wetter scenarios from the south. These shifts in climate represent hypothetical but historically realistic climate change scenarios. For Banizoumbou climatic conditions (latitude 13.54 N), a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions may dramatically increase mosquito abundance; however, our modeling results indicate that the increased malaria transmissibility is not simply proportional to the precipitation increase. The cooler, wetter conditions increase the length of the sporogonic cycle, dampening a large vectorial capacity increase otherwise brought about by increased mosquito survival and greater overall abundance. Furthermore, simulations varying rainfall event frequency demonstrate the importance of precipitation patterns, rather than simply average or time-integrated precipitation, as a controlling factor of these dynamics. Modeling results suggest that in addition to changes in temperature and total precipitation, changes in rainfall patterns are very important to predict changes in disease susceptibility resulting from climate shifts. The combined effect of these climate-shift-induced perturbations can be represented with the aid of a detailed mechanistic model.

Tree Density and Species Decline in the African Sahel Attributable to Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gonzalez, Patrick; Tucker, Compton J.; Sy, H.

2012-01-01

Increased aridity and human population have reduced tree cover in parts of the African Sahel and degraded resources for local people. Yet, tree cover trends and the relative importance of climate and population remain unresolved. From field measurements, aerial photos, and Ikonos satellite images, we detected significant 1954-2002 tree density declines in the western Sahel of 18 +/- 14% (P = 0.014, n = 204) and 17 +/- 13% (P = 0.0009, n = 187). From field observations, we detected a significant 1960-2000 species richness decline of 21 +/- 11% (P = 0.0028, n = 14) across the Sahel and a southward shift of the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea zones. Multivariate analyses of climate, soil, and population showed that temperature most significantly (P < 0.001) explained tree cover changes. Multivariate and bivariate tests and field observations indicated the dominance of temperature and precipitation, supporting attribution of tree cover changes to climate variability. Climate change forcing of Sahel climate variability, particularly the significant (P < 0.05) 1901-2002 temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the research areas, connects Sahel tree cover changes to global climate change. This suggests roles for global action and local adaptation to address ecological change in the Sahel.

North Atlantic salinity as a predictor of Sahel rainfall.

PubMed

Li, Laifang; Schmitt, Raymond W; Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Karnauskas, Kristopher B

2016-05-01

Water evaporating from the ocean sustains precipitation on land. This ocean-to-land moisture transport leaves an imprint on sea surface salinity (SSS). Thus, the question arises of whether variations in SSS can provide insight into terrestrial precipitation. This study provides evidence that springtime SSS in the subtropical North Atlantic ocean can be used as a predictor of terrestrial precipitation during the subsequent summer monsoon in Africa. Specifically, increased springtime SSS in the central to eastern subtropical North Atlantic tends to be followed by above-normal monsoon-season precipitation in the African Sahel. In the spring, high SSS is associated with enhanced moisture flux divergence from the subtropical oceans, which converges over the African Sahel and helps to elevate local soil moisture content. From spring to the summer monsoon season, the initial water cycling signal is preserved, amplified, and manifested in excessive precipitation. According to our analysis of currently available soil moisture data sets, this 3-month delay is attributable to a positive coupling between soil moisture, moisture flux convergence, and precipitation in the Sahel. Because of the physical connection between salinity, ocean-to-land moisture transport, and local soil moisture feedback, seasonal forecasts of Sahel precipitation can be improved by incorporating SSS into prediction models. Thus, expanded monitoring of ocean salinity should contribute to more skillful predictions of precipitation in vulnerable subtropical regions, such as the Sahel.

North Atlantic salinity as a predictor of Sahel rainfall

PubMed Central

Li, Laifang; Schmitt, Raymond W.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.

2016-01-01

Water evaporating from the ocean sustains precipitation on land. This ocean-to-land moisture transport leaves an imprint on sea surface salinity (SSS). Thus, the question arises of whether variations in SSS can provide insight into terrestrial precipitation. This study provides evidence that springtime SSS in the subtropical North Atlantic ocean can be used as a predictor of terrestrial precipitation during the subsequent summer monsoon in Africa. Specifically, increased springtime SSS in the central to eastern subtropical North Atlantic tends to be followed by above-normal monsoon-season precipitation in the African Sahel. In the spring, high SSS is associated with enhanced moisture flux divergence from the subtropical oceans, which converges over the African Sahel and helps to elevate local soil moisture content. From spring to the summer monsoon season, the initial water cycling signal is preserved, amplified, and manifested in excessive precipitation. According to our analysis of currently available soil moisture data sets, this 3-month delay is attributable to a positive coupling between soil moisture, moisture flux convergence, and precipitation in the Sahel. Because of the physical connection between salinity, ocean-to-land moisture transport, and local soil moisture feedback, seasonal forecasts of Sahel precipitation can be improved by incorporating SSS into prediction models. Thus, expanded monitoring of ocean salinity should contribute to more skillful predictions of precipitation in vulnerable subtropical regions, such as the Sahel. PMID:27386525

Observed climate variability over Chad using multiple observational and reanalysis datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maharana, Pyarimohan; Abdel-Lathif, Ahmat Younous; Pattnayak, Kanhu Charan

2018-03-01

Chad is the largest of Africa's landlocked countries and one of the least studied region of the African continent. The major portion of Chad lies in the Sahel region, which is known for its rapid climate change. In this study, multiple observational datasets are analyzed from 1950 to 2014, in order to examine the trend of precipitation and temperature along with their variability over Chad to understand possible impacts of climate change over this region. Trend analysis of the climatic fields has been carried out using Mann-Kendall test. The precipitation over Chad is mostly contributed during summer by West African Monsoon, with maximum northward limit of 18° N. The Atlantic Ocean as well as the Mediterranean Sea are the major source of moisture for the summer rainfall over Chad. Based on the rainfall time series, the entire study period has been divided in to wet (1950 to 1965), dry (1966 to 1990) and recovery period (1991 to 2014). The rainfall has decreased drastically for almost 3 decades during the dry period resulted into various drought years. The temperature increases at a rate of 0.15 °C/decade during the entire period of analysis. The seasonal rainfall as well as temperature plays a major role in the change of land use/cover. The decrease of monsoon rainfall during the dry period reduces the C4 cover drastically; this reduction of C4 grass cover leads to increase of C3 grass cover. The slow revival of rainfall is still not good enough for the increase of shrub cover but it favors the gradual reduction of bare land over Chad.

Drought in West Africa: How CHIRPS and Reference Evapotranspiration can be used for Index Insurance in a Non-Stationary Setting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blakeley, S. L.; Husak, G. J.; Harrison, L.; Funk, C. C.; Osgood, D. E.; Peterson, P.

2017-12-01

Index insurance is increasingly used as a safety net and productivity tool in order to improve the resilience of small-holder farmers in developing countries. In West Africa, there are already index insurance projects in many countries, and various non-governmental organizations are eager to expand implementation of this risk management tool. Often, index insurance payouts rely on rainfall to determine drought years, but designation of years based on precipitation variations is particularly complex in places like West Africa where precipitation is subject to much natural variability across timescales [Giannini 2003, among others]. Furthermore, farmers must also rely on other weather factors for good crop yields, such as the availability of moisture for their plants to absorb and maximum daily temperatures staying within an acceptable range for the crops. In this presentation, the payouts of an index based on rainfall (as measured by the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations {CHIRPS} dataset) is compared to the payouts of an index using reference evapotranspiration data (using the ASCE's Penmen-Monteith formula and MERRA-2 drivers). The West African rainfall index exhibits a fair amount of long-term variability, reflective of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, but the reference evapotranspiration index shows different variability, through changes in radiative forcing and temperatures. Therefore, the use of rainfall for an index is appropriate for capturing rainfall deficits, but reference evapotranspiration may also be an appropriate addition to an index or as a stand-alone index for capturing crop stress. In summary, the results point to farmer input as an invaluable source of knowledge in determining the most appropriate dataset as an index for crop insurance. Alessandra Giannini, R Saravanan, and P Chang. Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science, 302(5647):1027-1030, 2003.

Characterization of the Sahelian-Sudan rainfall based on observations and regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salih, Abubakr A. M.; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Tjernström, Michael; Zhang, Qiong

2018-04-01

The African Sahel region is known to be highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. We analyze rainfall in the Sahelian Sudan in terms of distribution of rain-days and amounts, and examine whether regional climate models can capture these rainfall features. Three regional models namely, Regional Model (REMO), Rossby Center Atmospheric Model (RCA) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), are evaluated against gridded observations (Climate Research Unit, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-interim reanalysis) and rain-gauge data from six arid and semi-arid weather stations across Sahelian Sudan over the period 1989 to 2008. Most of the observed rain-days are characterized by weak (0.1-1.0 mm/day) to moderate (> 1.0-10.0 mm/day) rainfall, with average frequencies of 18.5% and 48.0% of the total annual rain-days, respectively. Although very strong rainfall events (> 30.0 mm/day) occur rarely, they account for a large fraction of the total annual rainfall (28-42% across the stations). The performance of the models varies both spatially and temporally. RegCM4 most closely reproduces the observed annual rainfall cycle, especially for the more arid locations, but all of the three models fail to capture the strong rainfall events and hence underestimate its contribution to the total annual number of rain-days and rainfall amount. However, excessive moderate rainfall compensates this underestimation in the models in an annual average sense. The present study uncovers some of the models' limitations in skillfully reproducing the observed climate over dry regions, will aid model users in recognizing the uncertainties in the model output and will help climate and hydrological modeling communities in improving models.

The impacts of the dust radiative effect on vegetation growth in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, S. M.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Ginoux, P. A.

2017-12-01

Many studies have been conducted on the effects of dust on rainfall in the Sahel, and generally show that African dust weakens the West African Monsoon, drying the region. This drying is often assumed to reduce vegetation cover for the region, providing a positive feedback with dust emission. There are, however, other competing effects of dust that are also important to plant growth, including a reduction in surface temperature, a reduction in downwelling solar radiation, and an increase in the diffuse fraction of that solar radiation. Using the NOAA/GFDL CM3 model coupled to the dynamic vegetation model LM3, we demonstrate that the combined effect of all these processes is to decrease the vegetation coverage and productivity of the Sahel and West Africa. We accomplish this by comparing experiments with radiatively active dust to experiments with radiatively invisible dust. We find that in modern conditions, the dust radiative effect reduces the net primary productivity of West Africa and the Sahel by up to 30% locally, and when summed over the region accounts for a difference of approximately 0.4 GtC per year. Experiments where the vegetation experiences preindustrial rather than modern CO2 levels show that without carbon fertilization, this loss of productivity would be approximately 10% stronger. In contrast, during preindustrial conditions the vegetation response is less than half as strong, despite the dust induced rainfall and temperature anomalies being similar. We interpret this as the vegetation being less susceptible to drought in a less evaporative climate. These changes in vegetation create the possibility of a dust-vegetation feedback loop whose strength varies with the mean state of the climate, and which may grow stronger in the future.

Farmers' perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel.

PubMed

Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa

2009-05-01

Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.

Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haywood, Jim M.; Jones, Andy; Bellouin, Nicolas; Stephenson, David

2013-07-01

The Sahelian drought of the 1970s-1990s was one of the largest humanitarian disasters of the past 50 years, causing up to 250,000 deaths and creating 10 million refugees. It has been attributed to natural variability, over-grazing and the impact of industrial emissions of sulphur dioxide. Each mechanism can influence the Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, which is strongly coupled to Sahelian precipitation. We suggest that sporadic volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere also strongly influence this gradient and cause Sahelian drought. Using de-trended observations from 1900 to 2010, we show that three of the four driest Sahelian summers were preceded by substantial Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions. We use a state-of-the-art coupled global atmosphere-ocean model to simulate both episodic volcanic eruptions and geoengineering by continuous deliberate injection into the stratosphere. In either case, large asymmetric stratospheric aerosol loadings concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere are a harbinger of Sahelian drought whereas those concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere induce a greening of the Sahel. Further studies of the detailed regional impacts on the Sahel and other vulnerable areas are required to inform policymakers in developing careful consensual global governance before any practical solar radiation management geoengineering scheme is implemented.

Climate impact on malaria in northern Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Tourre, Yves M; Vignolles, Cécile; Viel, Christian; Mounier, Flore

2017-11-27

The Paluclim project managed by the French Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) found that total rainfall for a 3-month period is a confounding factor for the density of malaria vectors in the region of Nouna in the Sahel administrative territory of northern Burkina Faso. Following the models introduced in 1999 by Craig et al. and in 2003 by Tanser et al., a climate impact model for malaria risk (using different climate indices) was created. Several predictions of this risk at different temporal scales (i.e. seasonal, inter-annual and low-frequency) were assessed using this climate model. The main result of this investigation was the discovery of a significant link between malaria risk and low-frequency rainfall variability related to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). This result is critical for the health information systems in this region. Knowledge of the AMO phases would help local authorities to organise preparedness and prevention of malaria, which is of particular importance in the climate change context.

A GCM simulation study of the influence of Saharan evapotranspiration and surface-albedo anomalies on July circulation and rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Y. C.; Molod, A.

1988-01-01

The influence of surface albedo and evapotranspiration anomalies that could result from the hypothetical semiarid vegetation over North Africa on its July circulation and rainfall is examined using the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres GCM. It is shown that increased soil moisture and its dependent evapotranspiration produces a cooler and moister PBL over North Africa that is able to support enhanced moist convection and rainfall in Sahel and southern Sahara. It is found that lower surface albedo yields even higher moist static energy in the PBL and enhances the local moist convection and rainfall. Modifying the rain-evaporation parameterization in the model produces changes in the hydrological cycle and rainfall anomalies in distant regions. The effects of different falling rain parameterizations are discussed.

Trend and variability in western and central Africa streamflow, and major drivers of variability between 1950 and 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieppois, B.; Sidibe, M.; Mahe, G. M.; Paturel, J. E.; Anifowose, B. A.; Lawler, D.; Amoussou, E.

2017-12-01

Unprecedented drought episodes that struck western and central Africa between the late 1960s and 1980s, triggered many studies investigating rainfall variability and its impacts on water resources and food production systems. However, most studies were focused at the catchment scale. In this study, we aim at investigating the key large-scale controls determining and modulating climate-river flows relationships at the subcontinental scale between 1950 and 2005. Using the first complete monthly streamflow data set (1950-2005) over western and central Africa, streamflow trend and variability are seasonally assessed at this subcontinental scale and compared to those observed in other hydroclimatic variables (precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration). Long-term trends and variability in streamflow are mainly consistent with trends in rainfall. In particular, the recent post-1990s partial recovery in Sahel rainfall could have, at least partially, positively impacted river flows (e.g. the Senegal and Niger rivers). However, these relationships may have been moderated by: i) changes in land use; and ii) contributions from groundwater resources. In addition, the time-evolution of river flows is shown to be primarily driven by very strong decadal fluctuations, which can be interpreted as modulations in the baseflow, as determined using multi-temporal trend and continuous wavelet analysis. These decadal fluctuations, which are also significantly detected in rainfall, are likely related to large-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns (such as the tropical Atlantic SST variability, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation), which are together modulating the West African monsoon. Furthermore, influences of the catchment properties (e.g. size, vegetation and land use cover, soil properties, direction of stream flow across climate zones) on these decadal fluctuations in river flows have been examined. This study therefore aims to improve the ability of current global to regional climate models to simulate such ranges of variability and understand regional hydroclimate, as a means for improving the development of future scenarios for water resources in western and central Africa.

Revisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future: prospects of water cycle changes in Central Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leauthaud, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Grippa, M.; Kergoat, L.; Velluet, C.; Guichard, F.; Mougin, E.; Chelbi, S.; Sultan, B.

2015-06-01

Rainfall and climatic conditions are the main drivers of natural and cultivated vegetation productivity in the semiarid region of Central Sahel. In a context of decreasing cultivable area per capita, understanding and predicting changes in the water cycle are crucial. Yet, it remains challenging to project future climatic conditions in West Africa since there is no consensus on the sign of future precipitation changes in simulations coming from climate models. The Sahel region has experienced severe climatic changes in the past 60 years that can provide a first basis to understand the response of the water cycle to non-stationary conditions in this part of the world. The objective of this study was to better understand the response of the water cycle to highly variable climatic regimes in Central Sahel using historical climate records and the coupling of a land surface energy and water model with a vegetation model that, when combined, simulated the Sahelian water, energy and vegetation cycles. To do so, we relied on a reconstructed long-term climate series in Niamey, Republic of Niger, in which three precipitation regimes can be distinguished with a relative deficit exceeding 25% for the driest period compared to the wettest period. Two temperature scenarios (+2 and +4 °C) consistent with future warming scenarios were superimposed to this climatic signal to generate six virtual future 20-year climate time series. Simulations by the two coupled models forced by these virtual scenarios showed a strong response of the water budget and its components to temperature and precipitation changes, including decreases in transpiration, runoff and drainage for all scenarios but those with highest precipitation. Such climatic changes also strongly impacted soil temperature and moisture. This study illustrates the potential of using the strong climatic variations recorded in the past decades to better understand potential future climate variations.

Implications of land use change in tropical West Africa under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brücher, Tim; Claussen, Martin

2015-04-01

Northern Africa, and the Sahel in particular, are highly vulnerable to climate change, due to strong exposure to increasing temperature, precipitation variability, and population growth. A major link between climate and humans in this region is land use and associated land cover change, mainly where subsistence farming prevails. But how strongly does climate change affect land use and how strongly does land use feeds back into climate change? To which extent may climate-induced water, food and wood shortages exacerbate conflict potential and lead changes in land use and to migration? Estimates of possible changes in African climate vary among the Earth System Models participating in the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) exercise, except for the region adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea, where a significant decrease of precipitation emerges. While all models agree in a strong temperature increase, rainfall uncertainties for most parts of the Sahara, Sahel, and Sudan are higher. Here we present results of complementary experiments based on extreme and idealized land use change scenarios within a future climate.. We use the MPI-ESM forced with a strong green house gas scenario (RCP8.5) and apply an additional land use forcing by varying largely the intensity and kind of agricultural practice. By these transient experiments (until 2100) we elaborate the additional impact on climate due to strong land use forcing. However, the differences are mostly insignificant. The greenhouse gas caused temperature increase and the high variability in the West African Monsoon rainfall superposes the minor changes in climate due to land use. While simulated climate key variables like precipitation and temperature are not distinguishable from the CMIP5 RCP8.5 results, an additional greening is simulated, when crops are demanded. Crops have lower water usage than pastureland has. This benefits available soil water, which is taken up by the natural vegetation and makes it more productive. Given the limitations of an ESM, the findings of our study show that changes in the kind and intensity of land use have minor effects on the climate. Consequently, implications of extreme land use on e.g. human security, conflict or migration can be investigated in offline simulations.

Trend and variability in western and central Africa streamflow, and their relation to climate variability between 1950 and 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidibe, Moussa; Dieppois, Bastien; Mahé, Gil; Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel; Rouché, Nathalie; Amoussou, Ernest; Anifowose, Babatunde; Lawler, Damian

2017-04-01

Unprecedented drought episodes that struck western and central Africa between the late 1960s and 1980s. This triggered many studies investigating rainfall variability and its impacts on food production systems. However, most studies were focused at the catchment scale. In this study, we examine how rainfall variability has impacted on river flow at the subcontinental scale between 1950 and 2010, as well as the key large-scale controls on this relationship. For the first time, we establish a complete, gap-filled, monthly streamflow data set, which extends from 1950 to 2010, over the western and central African region. To achieve this, we used linear regression modelling across and between 600 flow gauging stations (see initial database information at http://www.hydrosciences.fr/sierem/index_en.htm). Streamflow trend and variability are then seasonally assessed at this subcontinental scale and compared to those observed in three different rainfall data sets (i.e. CRU TS3.24, GPCC V7, IRD-HSM). Long-term trends and variability in streamflow are mainly consistent with trends in rainfall. However, these relationships may have been moderated by: i) changes in land use; and ii) contributions from groundwater resources. In particular, we note that the recent post 1990s partial recovery in Sahel rainfall could have, at least partially, positively impacted river flows (e.g. the Senegal and Niger rivers). Using multi-temporal trend and continuous wavelet analysis, the time-evolution of western and central African river flows are analysed, and are all characterized by very strong decadal fluctuations, which can be interpreted as modulations in the baseflow. These decadal fluctuations, which are also significantly detected in rainfall, are likely related to large-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns, such as the tropical Atlantic SST variability, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and/or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Furthermore, hitherto-poorly understood hydroclimatic processes related to these teleconnections at decadal timescales will be examined in this study. Influences of the catchment properties (e.g. size, shape, vegetation and landuse cover, soil type, ground-water level, direction of stream flow across climate zones) on these decadal fluctuations in river flows will also be assessed. This study therefore aims to improve the ability of current regional and global climate models to simulate such ranges of variability, to significantly improve regional hydroclimate understanding, as a means for improving the development of future scenarios for water resources in western and central Africa.

Diagnosis of vegetation recovery within herbaceous sub-systems in the West African Sahel Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchang, J.; Hanan, N. P.; Prihodko, L.; Sathyachandran, S. K.; Ji, W.; Ross, C. W.

2017-12-01

The West African Sahel (WAS) region is an extensive water limited environment that features a delicate balance of herbaceous and woody vegetation sub systems. These play an important role in the cycling of carbon while also supporting the dominant agro-pastoral human activities in the region. Quantifying the temporal trends in vegetation with regard to these two systems is therefore very important in assessing resource sustainability and food security. In water limited areas, rainfall is a primary driver of vegetation productivity and past watershed scale studies in the WAS region have shown that increase in the slope of the productivity-to-rainfall relationship is indicative of increasing cover and density of herbaceous plants. Given the importance of grazing resources to the region, we perform a wall-to-wall pixel based analysis of changing short-term vegetation sensitivity to changing annual rainfall (hereafter referred to as dS) to examine temporal trends in herbaceous vegetation health. Results indicate that 43% of the Sahelian region has experienced changes (P < 0.05) in herbaceous vegetation (dS). Areas with significant increases in dS are well distributed across the region, but with major concentrations in North-Central Senegal, South Western and Central Mali and South Western Niger. Positive dS is indicative of herbaceous vegetation recovery, in response to changing management and rainfall conditions that promote long-term herbaceous community recovery following degradation during the 1970-1980s droughts.

Ponds' water balance and runoff of endorheic watersheds in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gal, Laetitia; Grippa, Manuela; Kergoat, Laurent; Hiernaux, Pierre; Mougin, Eric; Peugeot, Christophe

2015-04-01

The Sahel has been characterized by a severe rainfall deficit since the mid-twentieth century, with extreme droughts in the early seventies and again in the early eighties. These droughts have strongly impacted ecosystems, water availability, fodder resources, and populations living in these areas. However, an increase of surface runoff has been observed during the same period, such as higher "summer discharge" of Sahelian's rivers generating local floods, and a general increase in pond's surface in pastoral areas of central and northern Sahel. This behavior, less rain but more surface runoff is generally referred to as the "Sahelian paradox". Various hypotheses have been put forward to explain this paradoxical situation. The leading role of increase in cropped areas, often cited for cultivated Sahel, does not hold for pastoral areas in central and northern Sahel. Processes such as degradation of vegetation subsequent to the most severe drought events, soils erosion and runoff concentration on shallow soils, which generate most of the water ending up in ponds, seem to play an important role. This still needs to be fully understood and quantified. Our study focuses on a model-based approach to better understand the hydrological changes that affected the Agoufou watershed (Gourma, Mali), typical of the central, non-cultivated Sahel. Like most of the Sahelian basins, the Agoufou watershed is ungauged. Therefore we used indirect data to provide the information required to validate a rainfall-runoff model approach. The pond volume was calculated by combining in-situ water level measurements with pond's surface estimations derived by remote sensing. Using the pond's water balance equation, the variations of pond volume combined to estimates of open water bodies' evaporation and infiltration determined an estimation for the runoff supplying the pond. This estimation highlights a spectacular runoff increase over the last sixty years on the Agoufou watershed. The runoff proxy derived for the Agoufou pond is used to evaluate results from the KINEROS2 model (KINematic runoff and EROSion). This model is specifically designed to simulate surface runoff in semi-arid watersheds. It describes the processes of runoff, infiltration and erosion by taking into account land cover and soil characteristics. We show that rain intensity, soil hydrological properties (hydraulic conductivity and Manning's roughness coefficient), contributing source area areas and land use-land cover were the major factors to take into account to correctly simulate runoff over the present period (2006-2010). This will help to simulate the past evolution of the Agoufou watershed and better understand the key mechanisms of the Sahelian paradox in non-cultivated Sahel. Finally, we will discuss the application of the SWOT and Sentinel-2 future satellites, which will provide water level and pond's surface, to obtain large-scale estimates of water balance in ungauged Sahelian basins.

Climate Research and Seasonal Forecasting for West Africans: Perceptions, Dissemination, and Use?.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarhule, Aondover; Lamb, Peter J.

2003-12-01

Beginning in response to the disastrous drought of 1968 73, considerable research and monitoring have focused on the characteristics, causes, predictability, and impacts of West African Soudano Sahel (10° 18°N) rainfall variability and drought. While these efforts have generated substantial information on a range of these topics, very little is known of the extent to which communities, activities at risk, and policy makers are aware of, have access to, or use such information. This situation has prevailed despite Glantz&;s provocative BAMS paper on the use and value of seasonal forecasts for the Sahel more than a quarter century ago. We now provide a systematic reevaluation of these issues based on questionnaire responses of 566 participants (in 13 communities) and 26 organizations in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. The results reveal that rural inhabitants have limited access to climate information, with nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) being the most important source. Moreover, the pathways for information flow are generally weakly connected and informal. As a result, utilization of the results of climate research is very low to nonexistent, even by organizations responsible for managing the effects of climate variability. Similarly, few people have access to seasonal climate forecasts, although the vast majority expressed a willingness to use such information when it becomes available. Those respondents with access expressed great enthusiasm and satisfaction with seasonal forecasts. The results suggest that inhabitants of the Soudano Sahel savanna are keen for changes that improve their ability to cope with climate variability, but the lack of information on alternative courses of action is a major constraint. Our study, thus, essentially leaves unchanged both Glantz&;s negative “tentative conclusion” and more positive “preliminary assessment” of 25 years ago. Specifically, while many of the infrastructural deficiencies and socioeconomic impediments remain, the great yearning for climate information by Soudano Sahalians suggests that the time is finally ripe for fostering increased use. Therefore, a simple model for improved dissemination of climate research and seasonal climate forecast information is proposed. The tragedy is that a quarter century has passed since Glantz&;s clarion call.

Towards an understanding of coupled physical and biological processes in the cultivated Sahel - 1. Energy and water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramier, David; Boulain, Nicolas; Cappelaere, Bernard; Timouk, Franck; Rabanit, Manon; Lloyd, Colin R.; Boubkraoui, Stéphane; Métayer, Frédéric; Descroix, Luc; Wawrzyniak, Vincent

2009-08-01

SummaryThis paper presents an analysis of the coupled cycling of energy and water by semi-arid Sahelian surfaces, based on two years of continuous vertical flux measurements from two homogeneous recording stations in the Wankama catchment, in the West Niger meso-site of the AMMA project. The two stations, sited in a millet field and in a semi-natural fallow savanna plot, sample the two dominant land cover types in this area typical of the cultivated Sahel. The 2-year study period enables an analysis of seasonal variations over two full wet-dry seasons cycles, characterized by two contrasted rain seasons that allow capturing a part of the interannual variability. All components of the surface energy budget (four-component radiation budget, soil heat flux and temperature, eddy fluxes) are measured independently, allowing for a quality check through analysis of the energy balance closure. Water cycle monitoring includes rainfall, evapotranspiration (from vapour eddy flux), and soil moisture at six depths. The main modes of observed variability are described, for the various energy and hydrological variables investigated. Results point to the dominant role of water in the energy cycle variability, be it seasonal, interannual, or between land cover types. Rainfall is responsible for nearly as much seasonal variations of most energy-related variables as solar forcing. Depending on water availability and plant requirements, evapotranspiration pre-empts the energy available from surface forcing radiation, over the other dependent processes (sensible and ground heat, outgoing long wave radiation). In the water budget, pre-emption by evapotranspiration leads to very large variability in soil moisture and in deep percolation, seasonally, interannually, and between vegetation types. The wetter 2006 season produced more evapotranspiration than 2005 from the fallow but not from the millet site, reflecting differences in plant development. Rain-season evapotranspiration is nearly always lower at the millet site. Higher soil moisture at this site suggests that this difference arises from lower vegetation requirements rather than from lower infiltration/higher runoff. This difference is partly compensated for during the next dry season. Effects of water and vegetation on the energy budget appear to occur more through latent heat than through albedo. A large part of albedo variability comes from soil wetting and drying. Prior to the onset of monsoon rain, the change in air mass temperature and wind produces, through modulation of sensible heat, a marked chilling effect on the components of the surface energy budget.

Desertification and a shift of forest species in the West African Sahel

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gonzalez, Patrick

2001-01-01

Original field data show that forest species richness and tree density in the West African Sahel declined in the last half of the 20th century. Average forest species richness of areas of 4 km2 in Northwest Senegal fell from 64 ?? 2 species ca 1945 to 43 ?? 2 species in 1993, a decrease significant at p < 0.001. Densities of trees of height ???3 m declined from 10 ?? 0.3 trees ha-1 in 1954 to 7.8 ?? 0.3 trees ha-1 in 1989, also significant at p < 0.001. Standing wood biomass fell 2.1 t ha-1 in the period 1956-1993, releasing CO2 at a rate of 60 kgC person-1 yr-1. These changes have shifted vegetation zones toward areas of higher rainfall at an average rate of 500 to 600 m yr-1. Arid Sahel species have expanded in the north, tracking a concomitant retraction of mesic Sudan and Guinean species to the south. Multivariate analyses identify latitude and longitude, proxies for rainfall and temperature, as the most significant factors explaining tree and shrub distribution. The changes also decreased human carrying capacity to below actual population densities. The rural population of 45 people km-2 exceeded the 1993 carrying capacity, for firewood from shrubs, of 13 people km-2 (range 1 to 21 people km-2). As an adaptation strategy, ecological and socioeconomic factors favor the natural regeneration of local species over the massive plantation of exotic species. Natural regeneration is a traditional practice in which farmers select small field trees that they wish to raise to maturity, protect them, and prune them to promote rapid growth of the apical meristem. The results of this research provide evidence for desertification in the West African Sahel. These documented impacts of desertification foreshadow possible future effects of climate change.

Studies of 21st-Century Precipitation Trends Over West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.

2010-01-01

West Africa includes a semi-arid zone between the Sahara Desert and the humid Gulf of Guinea coast, approximately between 10 N and 20 N, which is irrigated by summer monsoon rains. This article refers to the region as the Sahel. Rain-fed agriculture is the primary sustenance for Sahel populations, and severe droughts (in the 1970s and 1980s), therefore, have devastating negative societal impacts. The future frequency of Sahel droughts and the evolution of its hydrological balance are therefore of great interest. The article reviews 10 recent research studies that attempt to discover how climate changes will affect the hydrology of the Sahel throughout the 21st century. All 10 studies rely on atmosphere ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations based on a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Many of the simulations are contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archives for Assessment Reports #3 and #4. Two of the studies use AOGCM data to drive regional climate models. Seven studies make projections for the first half of the 21st century and eight studies make projections for the second half. Some studies make projections of wetter conditions and some predict more frequent droughts, and each describes the atmospheric processes associated with its prediction. Only one study projects more frequent droughts before 2050, and that is only for continent-wide degradation in vegetation cover. The challenge to correctly simulate Sahel rainfall decadal trends is particularly daunting because multiple physical mechanisms compete to drive the trend upwards or downwards. A variety of model deficiencies, regarding the simulation of one or more of these physical processes, taints models climate change projections. Consequently, no consensus emerges regarding the impact of anticipated greenhouse gas forcing on the hydrology of the Sahel in the second half of the 21st century.

Role of Surface Wind and Vegetation Cover in Multi-decadal Variations of Dust Emission in the Sahara and Sahel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Dong; Chin, Mian; Remer, Lorraine A.; Diehl, Thomas L.; Bian, Huisheng; Yu, Hongbin; Brown, Molly E.; Stockwell, William R.

2016-01-01

North Africa, the world's largest dust source, is non-uniform, consisting of a permanently arid region (Sahara), a semi-arid region (Sahel), and a relatively moist vegetated region (Savanna), each with very different rainfall patterns and surface conditions. This study aims to better understand the controlling factors that determine the variation of dust emission in North Africa over a 27-year period from 1982 to 2008, using observational data and model simulations. The results show that the model-derived Saharan dust emission is only correlated with the 10-m winds (W10m) obtained from reanalysis data, but the model-derived Sahel dust emission is correlated with both W10m and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) that is obtained from satellite. While the Saharan dust accounts for 82 of the continental North Africa dust emission (1340-1570 Tg year(exp -1) in the 27-year average, the Sahel accounts for 17 with a larger seasonal and inter-annual variation (230-380 Tg year(exp -1), contributing about a quarter of the transatlantic dust transported to the northern part of South America. The decreasing dust emission trend over the 27-year period is highly correlated with W10m over the Sahara (R equals 0.92). Over the Sahel, the dust emission is correlated with W10m (R 0.69) but is also anti-correlated with the trend of NDVI (R equals 0.65). W10m is decreasing over both the Sahara and the Sahel between 1982 and 2008, and the trends are correlated (R equals 0.53), suggesting that Saharan Sahelian surface winds are a coupled system, driving the inter-annual variation of dust emission.

Monitoring land surface change over semi-arid regions using multispectral satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choudhury, B. J.

1990-01-01

Visible reflectance and surface temperature are derived from observations by the AVHRR on the NOAA-7 and NOAA-9 satellites and microwave emission at 37-GHz by the SMMR on Nimbus-7 satellite over the Sahel and Sudan zones. The AVHRR data is for the period January 1982 to December 1986, while the SMMR data is for the period January 1979 to December 1986. Rainfall data show that both the Sahel and Sudan zones experienced a particularly severe drought during 1984, and thus the present analysis shows the patterns leading to and recovering from the 1984 drought. Interrelationships among these multispectral data and the ways these relationships change in response to drought are evaluated in relation to field observations and heat balance models.

Relationships between climate, soil moisture and phenology of the woody cover in two sites located along the West African latitudinal gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seghieri, Josiane; Vescovo, Aude; Padel, Karine; Soubie, Remy; Arjounin, Marc; Boulain, Nicolas; de Rosnay, Patricia; Galle, Sylvie; Gosset, Marielle; Mouctar, Abakar H.; Peugeot, Christophe; Timouk, Franck

2009-08-01

SummaryThe study quantifies the relationships at local scale between phenology and determinants of climate and soil water resources at two sites located along the latitudinal gradient of West Africa, one in the central Sahel (Mali), the other in the Sudanian bioclimatic zone (Benin). The aim is to improve our knowledge on possible vegetation response to possible climate change. Within the Sudanian site, average annual rainfall is 1200 mm, extending from April to October, while, in the Sahelian site, it is 370 mm, occurring from June to September. Physical data were collected from the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis research programme. The phenology of the dominant species was monitored in four types of vegetation cover at the wetter site, and in three types of vegetation cover at the drier site. For each sampled plant, leafing, flowering and fruiting were recorded as binary variables in terms of the presence/absence of phenophases. A small proportion of the variability of each phenophase occurrence is explained by the logit models. However, rainfall rise is significantly linked to leafing probability increase in the Sahelian site but not in the Sudanian site. Day length extension and temperature decrease are significantly correlated with an increase in leafing in the Sudanian site, but not in the Sahelian. On both sites, the increase in cumulative rainfall is not found to be linked to an increased probability of reproductive phenophases (negative or non-significant relationships). Air temperature is positively correlated with flowering rate in the Sudanian site, but, all other factors being constant, no climate factors are found to be highly significant of flowering occurrence in the Sahel. Fruiting probability is positively correlated mainly with temperature within the Sahelian site. Leafing occurrence is positively correlated with soil moisture in the 0-1 m layer for the Sudanian site, but not for the Sahelian site. Significant relationships between fruiting occurrence and soil moisture may reflect a prior selection of plants on fruiting period that maximizes seed dispersion and germination differently at the two sites. While vegetative and reproduction schedules may be determined by specific genetic factors, the physical environment controls the possibility of their expression. Reduction of the rainfall amount and intensity may increase reproduction rates in wet areas. Although this factor should decrease leafing rate, it does not influence reproduction at dry sites, except through the decrease in air humidity. In wetter areas, increasing temperature may reduce leafing, but may increase reproduction rates. Cover reduction may have an impact on local physical factors and, consequently, probably also affects vegetation phenology.

Provisionally corrected surface wind data, worldwide ocean-atmosphere surface fields, and Sahelian rainfall variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ward, M.N.

Worldwide ship datasets of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), and surface vector wind are analyzed for a July-September composite of five Sahelian wet years (1950, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1958) minus five Sahelian dry years (1972, 1973, 1982, 1983, 1984) (W - D). The results are compared with fields for a number of individual years and for 1988 minus 1987 (88 - 87); Sahelian rainfall in 1988 was near the 1951-80 normal, whereas 1987 was very dry. An extensive study of the geostrophic consistency of trends in pressure gradients and observed wind was undertaken. The results suggest, duringmore » the period 1949-88, a mean increase in reported wind speed of about 16% that cannot be explained by trends in geostrophic winds derived from seasonal mean SLP. Estimates of the wind bias are averaged for 18 ocean regions. A map of correlations between Sahelian rainfall and SLP in all available ocean regions is shown to be field significant. Remote atmospheric associations with Sahelian rainfall are consistent with recent suggestions that SST forcing from the tropical Atlantic and the other ocean basins may contribute to variability in seasonal Sahelian rainfall. It is suggested that wetter years in the Sahel are often accompanied by a stronger surface monsoonal flow over the western Indian Ocean and low SLP in the tropical western Pacific near New Guinea, and that there is increased cyclonicity over the extratropical eastern North Atlantic and northwest Europe. In the tropical Atlantic, W - D shows many of the features identified by previous authors. However, the 88-87 fields do not reflect these large-scale tropical Atlantic changes. Instead there is only local strengthening of the pressure gradient and wind flow from Brazil to Senegal. Further individual years are presented (1958, 1972, 1975) to provide specific examples.« less

Reduction of tree cover in West African woodlands and promotion in semi-arid farmlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, Martin; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Hiernaux, Pierre; Herrmann, Stefanie; Tucker, Compton J.; Tong, Xiaoye; Tian, Feng; Mertz, Ole; Kergoat, Laurent; Mbow, Cheikh; David, John L.; Melocik, Katherine A.; Dendoncker, Morgane; Vincke, Caroline; Fensholt, Rasmus

2018-05-01

Woody vegetation in farmland acts as a carbon sink and provides ecosystem services for local people, but no macroscale assessments of the impact of management and climate on woody cover exist for drylands. Here we make use of very high spatial resolution satellite imagery to derive wall-to-wall woody cover patterns in tropical West African drylands. Our study reveals that mean woody cover in farmlands along all semi-arid and sub-humid rainfall zones is 16%, on average only 6% lower than in savannahs. In semi-arid Sahel, farmland management promotes woody cover around villages (11%), while neighbouring savannahs had on average less woody cover. However, farmlands in sub-humid zones have a greatly reduced woody cover (21%) as compared with savannahs (33%). In the region as a whole, rainfall, terrain and soil are the most important (80%) determinants of woody cover, while management factors play a smaller (20%) role. We conclude that agricultural expansion causes a considerable reduction of trees in woodlands, but observations in Sahel indicate that villagers safeguard trees on nearby farmlands which contradicts simplistic ideas of a high negative correlation between population density and woody cover.

Exploring evapotranspiration dynamics over Sub-Sahara Africa (2000-2014).

PubMed

Ndehedehe, Christopher E; Okwuashi, Onuwa; Ferreira, Vagner G; Agutu, Nathan O

2018-06-14

Monitoring changes in evapotranspiration (ET) is useful in the management of water resources in irrigated agricultural landscapes and in the assessment of crop stress and vegetation conditions of drought-vulnerable regions. Information on the impacts of climate variability on ET dynamics is profitable in developing water management adaptation strategies. Such impacts, however, are generally unreported and not conclusively determined in some regions. In this study, changes in MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)-derived ET (2000-2014) over large proportions of Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) are explored. The multivariate analyses of ET over SSA showed that four leading modes of observed dynamics in ET, accounting for about 90% of the total variability, emanated mostly from some sections of the Sudano-Sahel and Congo basin. Based on Man-Kendall's statistics, significant positive trends (α = 0.05) in ET over the Central African Republic and most parts of the Sahel region were observed. Over much of the Congo basin nonetheless, ET showed significant (α = 0.05) distributions of widespread negative trends. These trends in ET were rather found to be consistent with observed changes in model soil moisture but not in all locations, perhaps due to inconsistent trends in maximum rainfall and land surface temperature. However, the results of spatio-temporal drought analysis confirm that the extensive ET losses in the Congo basin were somewhat induced by soil moisture deficits. Amidst other prominent drivers of ET, the dynamics of ET over the terrestrial ecosystems of SSA appear to be a more complex phenomenon that may transcend natural climate variations.

Sources of Sahelian-Sudan moisture: Insights from a moisture-tracing atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salih, Abubakr A. M.; Zhang, Qiong; Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Tjernström, Michael

2016-07-01

The summer rainfall across Sahelian-Sudan is one of the main sources of water for agriculture, human, and animal needs. However, the rainfall is characterized by large interannual variability, which has attracted extensive scientific efforts to understand it. This study attempts to identify the source regions that contribute to the Sahelian-Sudan moisture budget during July through September. We have used an atmospheric general circulation model with an embedded moisture-tracing module (Community Atmosphere Model version 3), forced by observed (1979-2013) sea-surface temperatures. The result suggests that about 40% of the moisture comes with the moisture flow associated with the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and originates from Guinea Coast, central Africa, and the Western Sahel. The Mediterranean Sea, Arabian Peninsula, and South Indian Ocean regions account for 10.2%, 8.1%, and 6.4%, respectively. Local evaporation and the rest of the globe supply the region with 20.3% and 13.2%, respectively. We also compared the result from this study to a previous analysis that used the Lagrangian model FLEXPART forced by ERA-Interim. The two approaches differ when comparing individual regions, but are in better agreement when neighboring regions of similar atmospheric flow features are grouped together. Interannual variability with the rainfall over the region is highly correlated with contributions from regions that are associated with the ITCZ movement, which is in turn linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Our result is expected to provide insights for the effort on seasonal forecasting of the rainy season over Sahelian Sudan.

The Impact of the Atlantic Cold Tongue on West African Monsoon Onset in Regional Model Simulations for 1998-2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew B.

2014-01-01

The Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) develops during spring and early summer near the Equator in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The hypothesis that the ACT accelerates the timing of West African monsoon (WAM) onset is tested by comparing two regional climate model (RM3) simulation ensembles. Observed sea surface temperatures (SST) that include the ACT are used to force a control ensemble. An idealized, warm SST perturbation is designed to represent lower boundary forcing without the ACT for the experiment ensemble. Summer simulations forced by observed SST and reanalysis boundary conditions for each of five consecutive years are compared to five parallel runs forced by SST with the warm perturbation. The article summarizes the sequence of events leading to the onset of the WAM in the Sahel region. The representation of WAM onset in RM3 simulations is examined and compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and reanalysis data. The study evaluates the sensitivity of WAM onset indicators to the presence of the ACT by analysing the differences between the two simulation ensembles. Results show that the timing of major rainfall events and therefore theWAM onset in the Sahel are not sensitive to the presence of the ACT. However, the warm SST perturbation does increase downstream rainfall rates over West Africa as a consequence of enhanced specific humidity and enhanced northward moisture flux in the lower troposphere.

Uncertain soil moisture feedbacks in model projections of Sahel precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Alexis; Lintner, Benjamin R.; Findell, Kirsten; Giannini, Alessandra

2017-06-01

Given the uncertainties in climate model projections of Sahel precipitation, at the northern edge of the West African Monsoon, understanding the factors governing projected precipitation changes in this semiarid region is crucial. This study investigates how long-term soil moisture changes projected under climate change may feedback on projected changes of Sahel rainfall, using simulations with and without soil moisture change from five climate models participating in the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 experiment. In four out of five models analyzed, soil moisture feedbacks significantly influence the projected West African precipitation response to warming; however, the sign of these feedbacks differs across the models. These results demonstrate that reducing uncertainties across model projections of the West African Monsoon requires, among other factors, improved mechanistic understanding and constraint of simulated land-atmosphere feedbacks, even at the large spatial scales considered here.