Changing global essential medicines norms to improve access to AIDS treatment: Lessons from Brazil

PubMed Central

Nunn, A.; Fonseca, E. Da; Gruskin, S.

2009-01-01

Brazil's large-scale, successful HIV/AIDS treatment programme is considered by many to be a model for other developing countries aiming to improve access to AIDS treatment. Far less is known about Brazil's important role in changing global norms related to international pharmaceutical policy, particularly international human rights, health and trade policies governing access to essential medicines. Prompted by Brazil's interest in preserving its national AIDS treatment policies during World Trade Organisation trade disputes with the USA, these efforts to change global essential medicines norms have had important implications for other countries, particularly those scaling up AIDS treatment. This paper analyses Brazil's contributions to global essential medicines policy and explains the relevance of Brazil's contributions to global health policy today. PMID:19333805

Increasingly, Data Availability Limits Model Predictive Capacity: the Western Lake Erie Basin, a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrman, K. D.; Johnson, M. V. V.; Atwood, J. D.; Norfleet, M. L.

2016-12-01

Recent algal blooms in Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) have renewed scientific community's interest in developing process based models to better understand and predict the drivers of eutrophic conditions in the lake. At the same time, in order to prevent future blooms, farmers, local communities and policy makers are interested in developing spatially explicit nutrient and sediment management plans at various scales, from field to watershed. These interests have fueled several modeling exercises intended to locate "hotspots" in the basin where targeted adoption of additional agricultural conservation practices could provide the most benefit to water quality. The models have also been used to simulate various scenarios representing potential agricultural solutions. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and its sister model, the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX), have been used to simulate hydrology of interacting land uses in thousands of scientific studies around the world. High performance computing allows SWAT and APEX users to continue to improve and refine the model specificity to make predictions at small-spatial scales. Consequently, data inputs and calibration/validation data are now becoming the limiting factor to model performance. Water quality data for the tributaries and rivers that flow through WLEB is spatially and temporally limited. Land management data, including conservation practice and nutrient management data, are not publicly available at fine spatial and temporal scales. Here we show the data uncertainties associated with modeling WLEB croplands at a relatively large spatial scale (HUC-4) using site management data from over 1,000 farms collected by the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP). The error associated with downscaling this data to the HUC-8 and HUC-12 scale is shown. Simulations of spatially explicit dynamics can be very informative, but care must be taken when policy decisions are made based on models with unstated, but implicit assumptions. As we interpret modeling results, we must communicate the spatial and temporal scale for which the model was developed and at which the data is valid. When there is little to no data to enable appropriate validation and calibration, the results must be interpreted with appropriate skepticism.

Transitioning a home telehealth project into a sustainable, large-scale service: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Wade, Victoria A; Taylor, Alan D; Kidd, Michael R; Carati, Colin

2016-05-16

This study was a component of the Flinders Telehealth in the Home project, which tested adding home telehealth to existing rehabilitation, palliative care and geriatric outreach services. Due to the known difficulty of transitioning telehealth projects services, a qualitative study was conducted to produce a preferred implementation approach for sustainable and large-scale operations, and a process model that offers practical advice for achieving this goal. Initially, semi-structured interviews were conducted with senior clinicians, health service managers and policy makers, and a thematic analysis of the interview transcripts was undertaken to identify the range of options for ongoing operations, plus the factors affecting sustainability. Subsequently, the interviewees and other decision makers attended a deliberative forum in which participants were asked to select a preferred model for future implementation. Finally, all data from the study was synthesised by the researchers to produce a process model. 19 interviews with senior clinicians, managers, and service development staff were conducted, finding strong support for home telehealth but a wide diversity of views on governance, models of clinical care, technical infrastructure operations, and data management. The deliberative forum worked through these options and recommended a collaborative consortium approach for large-scale implementation. The process model proposes that the key factor for large-scale implementation is leadership support, which is enabled by 1) showing solutions to the problems of service demand, budgetary pressure and the relationship between hospital and primary care, 2) demonstrating how home telehealth aligns with health service policies, and 3) achieving clinician acceptance through providing evidence of benefit and developing new models of clinical care. Two key actions to enable change were marketing telehealth to patients, clinicians and policy-makers, and building a community of practice. The implementation of home telehealth services is still in an early stage. Change agents and a community of practice can contribute by marketing telehealth, demonstrating policy alignment and providing potential solutions for difficult health services problems. This should assist health leaders to move from trials to large-scale services.

Design strategies for human & earth systems modeling to meet emerging multi-scale decision support needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spak, S.; Pooley, M.

2012-12-01

The next generation of coupled human and earth systems models promises immense potential and grand challenges as they transition toward new roles as core tools for defining and living within planetary boundaries. New frontiers in community model development include not only computational, organizational, and geophysical process questions, but also the twin objectives of more meaningfully integrating the human dimension and extending applicability to informing policy decisions on a range of new and interconnected issues. We approach these challenges by posing key policy questions that require more comprehensive coupled human and geophysical models, identify necessary model and organizational processes and outputs, and work backwards to determine design criteria in response to these needs. We find that modular community earth system model design must: * seamlessly scale in space (global to urban) and time (nowcasting to paleo-studies) and fully coupled on all component systems * automatically differentiate to provide complete coupled forward and adjoint models for sensitivity studies, optimization applications, and 4DVAR assimilation across Earth and human observing systems * incorporate diagnostic tools to quantify uncertainty in couplings, and in how human activity affects them * integrate accessible community development and application with JIT-compilation, cloud computing, game-oriented interfaces, and crowd-sourced problem-solving We outline accessible near-term objectives toward these goals, and describe attempts to incorporate these design objectives in recent pilot activities using atmosphere-land-ocean-biosphere-human models (WRF-Chem, IBIS, UrbanSim) at urban and regional scales for policy applications in climate, energy, and air quality.

Species distributions models in wildlife planning: agricultural policy and wildlife management in the great plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, Joseph J.; Jorgensen, Christopher; Stuber, Erica F.; Gruber, Lutz F.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Lusk, Jeffrey J.; Zach, Eric S.; Decker, Karie L.

2017-01-01

We know economic and social policy has implications for ecosystems at large, but the consequences for a given geographic area or specific wildlife population are more difficult to conceptualize and communicate. Species distribution models, which extrapolate species-habitat relationships across ecological scales, are capable of predicting population changes in distribution and abundance in response to management and policy, and thus, are an ideal means for facilitating proactive management within a larger policy framework. To illustrate the capabilities of species distribution modeling in scenario planning for wildlife populations, we projected an existing distribution model for ring-necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) onto a series of alternative future landscape scenarios for Nebraska, USA. Based on our scenarios, we qualitatively and quantitatively estimated the effects of agricultural policy decisions on pheasant populations across Nebraska, in specific management regions, and at wildlife management areas. 

Benefits of mercury controls for the United States.

PubMed

Giang, Amanda; Selin, Noelle E

2016-01-12

Mercury pollution poses risks for both human and ecosystem health. As a consequence, controlling mercury pollution has become a policy goal on both global and national scales. We developed an assessment method linking global-scale atmospheric chemical transport modeling to regional-scale economic modeling to consistently evaluate the potential benefits to the United States of global (UN Minamata Convention on Mercury) and domestic [Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS)] policies, framed as economic gains from avoiding mercury-related adverse health endpoints. This method attempts to trace the policies-to-impacts path while taking into account uncertainties and knowledge gaps with policy-appropriate bounding assumptions. We project that cumulative lifetime benefits from the Minamata Convention for individuals affected by 2050 are $339 billion (2005 USD), with a range from $1.4 billion to $575 billion in our sensitivity scenarios. Cumulative economy-wide benefits to the United States, realized by 2050, are $104 billion, with a range from $6 million to $171 billion. Projected Minamata benefits are more than twice those projected from the domestic policy. This relative benefit is robust to several uncertainties and variabilities, with the ratio of benefits (Minamata/MATS) ranging from ≈1.4 to 3. However, we find that for those consuming locally caught freshwater fish from the United States, rather than marine and estuarine fish from the global market, benefits are larger from US than global action, suggesting domestic policies are important for protecting these populations. Per megagram of prevented emissions, our domestic policy scenario results in US benefits about an order of magnitude higher than from our global scenario, further highlighting the importance of domestic action.

An Integrated Approach to Economic and Environmental Aspects of Air Pollution and Climate Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarofim, M. C.

2007-12-01

Emissions of greenhouses gases and conventional pollutants are closely linked through shared generation processes and thus policies directed toward long-lived greenhouse gases affect emissions of conventional pollutants and, similarly, policies directed toward conventional pollutants affect emissions of greenhouse gases. Some conventional pollutants such as aerosols also have direct radiative effects. NOx and VOCs are ozone precursors, another substance with both radiative and health impacts, and these ozone precursors also interact with the chemistry of the hydroxyl radical which is the major methane sink. Realistic scenarios of future emissions and concentrations must therefore account for both air pollution and greenhouse gas policies and how they interact economically as well as atmospherically, including the regional pattern of emissions and regulation. We have modified a 16 region computable general equilibrium economic model (the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model) by including elasticities of substitution for ozone precursors and aerosols in order to examine these interactions between climate policy and air pollution policy on a global scale. Urban emissions are distributed based on population density, and aged using a reduced form urban model before release into an atmospheric chemistry/climate model (the earth systems component of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model). This integrated approach enables examination of the direct impacts of air pollution on climate, the ancillary and complementary interactions between air pollution and climate policies, and the impact of different population distribution algorithms or urban emission aging schemes on global scale properties. This modeling exercise shows that while ozone levels are reduced due to NOx and VOC reductions, these reductions lead to an increase in methane concentrations that eliminates the temperature effects of the ozone reductions. However, black carbon reductions do have significant direct effects on global mean temperatures, as do ancillary reductions of greenhouse gases due to the pollution constraints imposed in the economic model. Finally, we show that the economic benefits of coordinating air pollution and climate policies rather than separate implementation are on the order of 20% of the total policy cost.

Moving from a project to programmatic response: scaling up harm reduction in Asia.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Anindya; Sharma, Mukta

2010-03-01

The response to the HIV epidemics among people who inject drugs in Asia began to emerge in the early to mid 1990s, with the rather hesitant implementation of small-scale needle syringe programmes and community care initiatives aiming to support those who were already living with the virus. Since then Asia has seen a significant scaling up of harm reduction, despite very limited resources and difficult policy and legislative environments. One of the major reasons this has happened, is the utilisation of programme based approaches and the firm entrenchment of harm reduction thinking within national HIV/AIDS programmes and strategic plans--in most cases aided by multilateral and bilateral donors. Several models of scale up have been noted in Asia. The transition away from project based approaches, while on the whole positive, can also have a negative impact if the involvement of civil society and a client focussed approach is not protected. Also there are implications for which models of capacity building can be systematised for ongoing scale up. Most crucially, the tensions between drug policy, human rights and public health policies need to be resolved if harm reduction services are to be made available to the millions in Asia who are still unable to access these services. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howe, Peter D.; Mildenberger, Matto; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2015-06-01

Addressing climate change in the United States requires enactment of national, state and local mitigation and adaptation policies. The success of these initiatives depends on public opinion, policy support and behaviours at appropriate scales. Public opinion, however, is typically measured with national surveys that obscure geographic variability across regions, states and localities. Here we present independently validated high-resolution opinion estimates using a multilevel regression and poststratification model. The model accurately predicts climate change beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences at the state, congressional district, metropolitan and county levels, using a concise set of demographic and geographic predictors. The analysis finds substantial variation in public opinion across the nation. Nationally, 63% of Americans believe global warming is happening, but county-level estimates range from 43 to 80%, leading to a diversity of political environments for climate policy. These estimates provide an important new source of information for policymakers, educators and scientists to more effectively address the challenges of climate change.

Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

PubMed

Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

2005-01-01

Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

Increasing the scale and adoption of population health interventions: experiences and perspectives of policy makers, practitioners, and researchers

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Decisions to scale up population health interventions from small projects to wider state or national implementation is fundamental to maximising population-wide health improvements. The objectives of this study were to examine: i) how decisions to scale up interventions are currently made in practice; ii) the role that evidence plays in informing decisions to scale up interventions; and iii) the role policy makers, practitioners, and researchers play in this process. Methods Interviews with an expert panel of senior Australian and international public health policy-makers (n = 7), practitioners (n = 7), and researchers (n = 7) were conducted in May 2013 with a participation rate of 84%. Results Scaling up decisions were generally made through iterative processes and led by policy makers and/or practitioners, but ultimately approved by political leaders and/or senior executives of funding agencies. Research evidence formed a component of the overall set of information used in decision-making, but its contribution was limited by the paucity of relevant intervention effectiveness research, and data on costs and cost effectiveness. Policy makers, practitioners/service managers, and researchers had different, but complementary roles to play in the process of scaling up interventions. Conclusions This analysis articulates the processes of how decisions to scale up interventions are made, the roles of evidence, and contribution of different professional groups. More intervention research that includes data on the effectiveness, reach, and costs of operating at scale and key service delivery issues (including acceptability and fit of interventions and delivery models) should be sought as this has the potential to substantially advance the relevance and ultimately usability of research evidence for scaling up population health action. PMID:24735455

Doublethink and scale mismatch polarize policies for an invasive tree

PubMed Central

Roberts, Caleb P.; Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Twidwell, Dirac

2018-01-01

Mismatches between invasive species management policies and ecological knowledge can lead to profound societal consequences. For this reason, natural resource agencies have adopted the scientifically-based density-impact invasive species curve to guide invasive species management. We use the density-impact model to evaluate how well management policies for a native invader (Juniperus virginiana) match scientific guidelines. Juniperus virginiana invasion is causing a sub-continental regime shift from grasslands to woodlands in central North America, and its impacts span collapses in endemic diversity, heightened wildfire risk, and crashes in grazing land profitability. We (1) use land cover data to identify the stage of Juniperus virginiana invasion for three ecoregions within Nebraska, USA, (2) determine the range of invasion stages at individual land parcel extents within each ecoregion based on the density-impact model, and (3) determine policy alignment and mismatches relative to the density-impact model in order to assess their potential to meet sustainability targets and avoid societal impacts as Juniperus virginiana abundance increases. We found that nearly all policies evidenced doublethink and policy-ecology mismatches, for instance, promoting spread of Juniperus virginiana regardless of invasion stage while simultaneously managing it as a native invader in the same ecoregion. Like other invasive species, theory and literature for this native invader indicate that the consequences of invasion are unlikely to be prevented if policies fail to prioritize management at incipient invasion stages. Theory suggests a more realistic approach would be to align policy with the stage of invasion at local and ecoregion management scales. There is a need for scientists, policy makers, and ecosystem managers to move past ideologies governing native versus non-native invader classification and toward a framework that accounts for the uniqueness of native species invasions, their anthropogenic drivers, and their impacts on ecosystem services. PMID:29513675

Role of large scale energy systems models in R and D planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lamontagne, J.

1980-11-01

Long-term energy policy deals with the problem of finite supplies of convenient energy sources becoming more costly as they are depleted. The development of alternative technologies to provide new sources of energy and extend the lives of current ones is an attractive option available to government. Thus, one aspect of long-term energy policy involves investment in R and D. The importance of the problems addressed by R and D to the future of society (especially with regard to energy) dictates adoption of a cogent approach to resource allocation and to the designation of priorities for R and D. It ismore » hoped that energy systems models when properly used can provide useful inputs to this process. The influence of model results on energy policy makers who are not knowledgable about flaws or uncertainties in the models, errors in assumptions in model inputs which can result in faulty forecasts, the overall usefulness of energy system models, and model limitations are discussed. It is suggested that the large scale energy systems models currently used for assessing a broad spectrum of policy issues need to be replaced with reasonably simple models capable of dealing with uncertainty in a straightforward manner, and their methodologies and the meaning of their results should be transparent, especially to those removed from the modeling process. Energy models should be clearly related to specific issues. Methodologies should be clearly related to specific decisions, and should allow adjustments to be easily made for alternative assumptions and for additional knowledge gained during the evolution of the energy system. (LCL)« less

Integrated Modeling for Environmental Assessment of Ecosystem Services

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses environmental models to inform rulemaking and policy decisions at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, several sophisticated modeling technologies are seamlessly integrated to facilitate a baseline assessment of the re...

Next generation data systems and knowledge products to support agricultural producers and science-based policy decision making.

PubMed

Capalbo, Susan M; Antle, John M; Seavert, Clark

2017-07-01

Research on next generation agricultural systems models shows that the most important current limitation is data, both for on-farm decision support and for research investment and policy decision making. One of the greatest data challenges is to obtain reliable data on farm management decision making, both for current conditions and under scenarios of changed bio-physical and socio-economic conditions. This paper presents a framework for the use of farm-level and landscape-scale models and data to provide analysis that could be used in NextGen knowledge products, such as mobile applications or personal computer data analysis and visualization software. We describe two analytical tools - AgBiz Logic and TOA-MD - that demonstrate the current capability of farmlevel and landscape-scale models. The use of these tools is explored with a case study of an oilseed crop, Camelina sativa , which could be used to produce jet aviation fuel. We conclude with a discussion of innovations needed to facilitate the use of farm and policy-level models to generate data and analysis for improved knowledge products.

Benefits of mercury controls for the United States

PubMed Central

Selin, Noelle E.

2016-01-01

Mercury pollution poses risks for both human and ecosystem health. As a consequence, controlling mercury pollution has become a policy goal on both global and national scales. We developed an assessment method linking global-scale atmospheric chemical transport modeling to regional-scale economic modeling to consistently evaluate the potential benefits to the United States of global (UN Minamata Convention on Mercury) and domestic [Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS)] policies, framed as economic gains from avoiding mercury-related adverse health endpoints. This method attempts to trace the policies-to-impacts path while taking into account uncertainties and knowledge gaps with policy-appropriate bounding assumptions. We project that cumulative lifetime benefits from the Minamata Convention for individuals affected by 2050 are $339 billion (2005 USD), with a range from $1.4 billion to $575 billion in our sensitivity scenarios. Cumulative economy-wide benefits to the United States, realized by 2050, are $104 billion, with a range from $6 million to $171 billion. Projected Minamata benefits are more than twice those projected from the domestic policy. This relative benefit is robust to several uncertainties and variabilities, with the ratio of benefits (Minamata/MATS) ranging from ≈1.4 to 3. However, we find that for those consuming locally caught freshwater fish from the United States, rather than marine and estuarine fish from the global market, benefits are larger from US than global action, suggesting domestic policies are important for protecting these populations. Per megagram of prevented emissions, our domestic policy scenario results in US benefits about an order of magnitude higher than from our global scenario, further highlighting the importance of domestic action. PMID:26712021

Policy insights from the nutritional food market transformation model: the case of obesity prevention.

PubMed

Struben, Jeroen; Chan, Derek; Dubé, Laurette

2014-12-01

This paper presents a system dynamics policy model of nutritional food market transformation, tracing over-time interactions between the nutritional quality of supply, consumer food choice, population health, and governmental policy. Applied to the Canadian context and with body mass index as the primary outcome, we examine policy portfolios for obesity prevention, including (1) industry self-regulation efforts, (2) health- and nutrition-sensitive governmental policy, and (3) efforts to foster health- and nutrition-sensitive innovation. This work provides novel theoretical and practical insights on drivers of nutritional market transformations, highlighting the importance of integrative policy portfolios to simultaneously shift food demand and supply for successful and self-sustaining nutrition and health sensitivity. We discuss model extensions for deeper and more comprehensive linkages of nutritional food market transformation with supply, demand, and policy in agrifood and health/health care. These aim toward system design and policy that can proactively, and with greater impact, scale, and resilience, address single as well as double malnutrition in varying country settings. © 2014 New York Academy of Sciences.

Tradeoffs among carbon, biodiversity, and economic returns for future land-use scenarios in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennington, D. N.; Nelson, E.; Polasky, S.; Plantinga, A.; Lewis, D.; Whithey, J.; Radeloff, V.; Lawler, J.; White, D.; Martinuzzi, S.; Helmers, D.; Lonsdorf, E.

2011-12-01

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, changes ecosystem processes, and causes ultimately the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected future land use at both the fine-spatial scale relevant for many ecological processes and at the larger regional levels relevant for large-scale policy making. We use an econometric model to predict business as usual land-use change across the continental US with 100-m resolution in 5-year time steps from 2001 to 2051. We then simulate the affect of various national-level tax, subsidy, and zoning policies on expected land-use change over this time frame. Further, we model the impact of projected land-use change under business as usual and the various policy scenarios on carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation in the conterminous United States. Our results showed that overall, land use composition will remain fairly stable, but there are considerable regional changes. Differences among policy scenarios were relatively minor highlighting that the underlying economic drivers of land use patterns are strong, and even fairly drastic policies may not be able to change these.

Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

2014-05-01

To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

The Effect of Subsurface Parameterizations on Modeled Flows in the Catchment Land Surface Model, Fortuna 2.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roningen, J. M.; Eylander, J. B.

2014-12-01

Groundwater use and management is subject to economic, legal, technical, and informational constraints and incentives at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Planned and de facto management practices influenced by tax structures, legal frameworks, and agricultural and trade policies that vary at the country scale may have medium- and long-term effects on the ability of a region to support current and projected agricultural and industrial development. USACE is working to explore and develop global-scale, physically-based frameworks to serve as a baseline for hydrologic policy comparisons and consequence assessment, and such frameworks must include a reasonable representation of groundwater systems. To this end, we demonstrate the effects of different subsurface parameterizations, scaling, and meteorological forcings on surface and subsurface components of the Catchment Land Surface Model Fortuna v2.5 (Koster et al. 2000). We use the Land Information System 7 (Kumar et al. 2006) to process model runs using meteorological components of the Air Force Weather Agency's AGRMET forcing data from 2006 through 2011. Seasonal patterns and trends are examined in areas of the Upper Nile basin, northern China, and the Mississippi Valley. We also discuss the relevance of the model's representation of the catchment deficit with respect to local hydrogeologic structures.

Bacteria transport simulation using apex model in the toenepi watershed, New Zealand

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model is a distributed, continuous, daily-timestep small watershed-scale hydrologic and water quality model. In this study, the newly developed fecal-derived bacteria fate and transport subroutine was applied and validated using APEX model. The ...

Understanding climate policy data needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Molly E.; Macauley, Molly

2012-08-01

NASA Carbon Monitoring System: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty; Washington, D. C, 11 January 2012 Climate policy in the United States is currently guided by public-private partnerships and actions at the local and state levels that focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, agricultural practices, and implementation of technologies to reduce greenhouse gases. How will policy makers know if these strategies are working, particularly at the scales at which they are being implemented? The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) will provide information on carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes derived from observations of Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere used in state-of-the-art models describing their interactions. This new modeling system could be used to assess the impact of specific policy interventions on reductions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, enabling an iterative, results-oriented policy process.

AgMIP 1.5°C Assessment: Mitigation and Adaptation at Coordinated Global and Regional Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2016-12-01

The AgMIP 1.5°C Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (AgMIP 1.5 CGRA) is linking site-based crop and livestock models with similar models run on global grids, and then links these biophysical components with economics models and nutrition metrics at regional and global scales. The AgMIP 1.5 CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, nutrition, and food security to define the 1.5°C Protocols and guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including socioeconomic development (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), greenhouse gas concentrations (Representative Concentration Pathways), and specific pathways of agricultural sector development (Representative Agricultural Pathways). Shared Climate Policy Assumptions will be extended to provide additional agricultural detail on mitigation and adaptation strategies. The multi-model, multi-disciplinary, multi-scale integrated assessment framework is using scenarios of economic development, adaptation, mitigation, food policy, and food security. These coordinated assessments are grounded in the expertise of AgMIP partners around the world, leading to more consistent results and messages for stakeholders, policymakers, and the scientific community. The early inclusion of nutrition and food security experts has helped to ensure that assessment outputs include important metrics upon which investment and policy decisions may be based. The CGRA builds upon existing AgMIP research groups (e.g., the AgMIP Wheat Team and the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Modeling Initiative; GGCMI) and regional programs (e.g., AgMIP Regional Teams in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia), with new protocols for cross-scale and cross-disciplinary linkages to ensure the propagation of expert judgment and consistent assumptions.

Learning large-scale dynamic discrete choice models of spatio-temporal preferences with application to migratory pastoralism in East Africa

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding spatio-temporal resource preferences is paramount in the design of policies for sustainable development. Unfortunately, resource preferences are often unknown to policy-makers and have to be inferred from data. In this paper we consider the problem of inferring agents’ preferences fro...

Academic Values, Institutional Management and Public Policies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ward, David

2007-01-01

The impacts of market-related policies and revenues on higher education are not uniform but globalisation has opened most institutions to new pressures. The public funding models developed 50 years ago underestimated the full cost of mass higher education as an entitlement while the sheer scale of resources needed to sustain a comprehensive…

Carbon dynamics and land-use choices: building a regional-scale multidisciplinary model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kerr, Suzi; Liu, Shu-Guang; Pfaff, Alexander S.P.; Hughes, R. Flint

2003-01-01

Policy enabling tropical forests to approach their potential contribution to global-climate-change mitigation requires forecasts of land use and carbon storage on a large scale over long periods. In this paper, we present an integrated modeling methodology that addresses these needs. We model the dynamics of the human land-use system and of C pools contained in each ecosystem, as well as their interactions. The model is national scale, and is currently applied in a preliminary way to Costa Rica using data spanning a period of over 50 years. It combines an ecological process model, parameterized using field and other data, with an economic model, estimated using historical data to ensure a close link to actual behavior. These two models are linked so that ecological conditions affect land-use choices and vice versa. The integrated model predicts land use and its consequences for C storage for policy scenarios. These predictions can be used to create baselines, reward sequestration, and estimate the value in both environmental and economic terms of including C sequestration in tropical forests as part of the efforts to mitigate global climate change. The model can also be used to assess the benefits from costly activities to increase accuracy and thus reduce errors and their societal costs.

Policy Model of Sustainable Infrastructure Development (Case Study : Bandarlampung City, Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persada, C.; Sitorus, S. R. P.; Marimin; Djakapermana, R. D.

2018-03-01

Infrastructure development does not only affect the economic aspect, but also social and environmental, those are the main dimensions of sustainable development. Many aspects and actors involved in urban infrastructure development requires a comprehensive and integrated policy towards sustainability. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate an infrastructure development policy that considers various dimensions of sustainable development. The main objective of this research is to formulate policy of sustainable infrastructure development. In this research, urban infrastructure covers transportation, water systems (drinking water, storm water, wastewater), green open spaces and solid waste. This research was conducted in Bandarlampung City. This study use a comprehensive modeling, namely the Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) with Rapid Appraisal of Infrastructure (Rapinfra), it uses of Analytic Network Process (ANP) and it uses system dynamics model. The findings of the MDS analysis showed that the status of Bandarlampung City infrastructure sustainability is less sustainable. The ANP analysis produces 8 main indicators of the most influential in the development of sustainable infrastructure. The system dynamics model offered 4 scenarios of sustainable urban infrastructure policy model. The best scenario was implemented into 3 policies consist of: the integrated infrastructure management, the population control, and the local economy development.

Bacteria transport simulation using APEX model in the Toenepi watershed, New Zealand

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model is a distributed, continuous, daily-time step small watershed-scale hydrologic and water quality model. In this study, the newly developed fecal-derived bacteria fate and transport subroutine was applied and evalated using APEX model. The e...

Modeling the fate and transport of bacteria in agricultural and pasture lands using APEX

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model is a whole farm to small watershed scale continuous simulation model developed for evaluating various land management strategies. The current version, APEX0806, does not have the modeling capacity for fecal indicator bacteria fate and trans...

Comparing climate policy co-benefits in the United States and China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selin, N. E.; Li, M.; Saari, R.; Zhang, D.; Karplus, V. J.; Li, C. T.; Thompson, T. M.; Mulvaney, K. M.; Rausch, S.

2016-12-01

We use modeling approaches that integrate atmospheric chemistry, economic analysis, and health impacts calculations to evaluate and compare the co-benefits of greenhouse gas reduction policies for the U.S. and China. Climate policies can have a variety of co-benefits for air quality, in particular on the concentrations of health-damaging pollutants O3 and PM2.5 as well as toxic pollutants such as mercury. Co-benefits. Controlling CO2 sources such as power plants and vehicles can lead to concomitant reductions in other pollutants such as SO2, NOx, and Hg. Here, we present and discuss our evaluations of co-benefits in the U.S. and China, at both national and regional (state/provincial) scales. In particular, we assess how policy design, stringency, and energy system characteristics affect projected co-benefits and their valuation for human health. We find that at the national scale in both the U.S. and China, monetized co-benefits can offset the costs of carbon policies. U.S. co-benefits exhibit diminishing returns to projected increases in policy stringency, while Chinese co-benefits show different behavior. The magnitude of health-related co-benefits is sensitive to the economic valuation methodology, and to the choice of health impact function, with China-specific functions yielding substantially less co-benefit than those typically used in the U.S. In both cases, we see overall national-scale co-benefits but substantial regional variation at sub-national scales, illustrating the benefits of coupled atmospheric-economic analysis.

Changes in dental care access upon health care benefit expansion to include scaling

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Purpose This study aimed to evaluate the effects of a policy change to expand Korean National Health Insurance (KNHI) benefit coverage to include scaling on access to dental care at the national level. Methods A nationally representative sample of 12,794 adults aged 20 to 64 years from Korea National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (2010–2014) was analyzed. To examine the effect of the policy on the outcomes of interest (unmet dental care needs and preventive dental care utilization in the past year), an estimates-based probit model was used, incorporating marginal effects with a complex sampling structure. The effect of the policy on individuals depending on their income and education level was also assessed. Results Adjusting for potential covariates, the probability of having unmet needs for dental care decreased by 6.1% and preventative dental care utilization increased by 14% in the post-policy period compared to those in the pre-policy period (2010, 2012). High income and higher education levels were associated with fewer unmet dental care needs and more preventive dental visits. Conclusions The expansion of coverage to include scaling demonstrated to have a significant association with decreasing unmet dental care needs and increasing preventive dental care utilization. However, the policy disproportionately benefited certain groups, in contrast with the objective of the policy to benefit all participants in the KNHI system. PMID:28050318

Changes in dental care access upon health care benefit expansion to include scaling.

PubMed

Park, Hee-Jung; Lee, Jun Hyup; Park, Sujin; Kim, Tae-Il

2016-12-01

This study aimed to evaluate the effects of a policy change to expand Korean National Health Insurance (KNHI) benefit coverage to include scaling on access to dental care at the national level. A nationally representative sample of 12,794 adults aged 20 to 64 years from Korea National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (2010-2014) was analyzed. To examine the effect of the policy on the outcomes of interest (unmet dental care needs and preventive dental care utilization in the past year), an estimates-based probit model was used, incorporating marginal effects with a complex sampling structure. The effect of the policy on individuals depending on their income and education level was also assessed. Adjusting for potential covariates, the probability of having unmet needs for dental care decreased by 6.1% and preventative dental care utilization increased by 14% in the post-policy period compared to those in the pre-policy period (2010, 2012). High income and higher education levels were associated with fewer unmet dental care needs and more preventive dental visits. The expansion of coverage to include scaling demonstrated to have a significant association with decreasing unmet dental care needs and increasing preventive dental care utilization. However, the policy disproportionately benefited certain groups, in contrast with the objective of the policy to benefit all participants in the KNHI system.

Climate Change: Integrating Science and Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prinn, R. G.

2008-12-01

The world is facing an ever-growing conflict between environment and development. Climate change is a century-scale threat requiring a century-long effort in science, technology and policy analysis, and institutions that can sustain this effort over generations. To inform policy development and implementation there is urgent need for better integration of the diverse components of the problem. Motivated by this challenge, we have developed the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at MIT. It comprises coupled sub- models of economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics and ecosystems. The results of a recent uncertainty analysis involving hundreds of runs of the IGSM imply that, without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise much faster than previously estimated. Polar temperatures are projected to rise even faster than the average rate with obvious great risks for high latitude ecosystems and ice sheets at the high end of this range. Analysis of policies for climate mitigation, show that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes as opposed to lowering the medians. Faced with the above estimated impacts, the long lifetimes of most greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the long delay in ultimate warming due to ocean heat uptake, and the capital-intensive global energy infrastructure, the case is strong for concerted action now. Results of runs of the IGSM indicate the need for transformation of the global energy industry on a very large scale to mitigate climate change. Carbon sequestration, renewable energy sources, and nuclear present new economic, technological, and environmental challenges when implemented at the needed scales. Economic analyses using the IGSM indicate that global implementation of efficient policies could allow the needed transformations at bearable costs.

Attitudes of cannabis growers to regulation of cannabis cultivation under a non-prohibition cannabis model.

PubMed

Lenton, Simon; Frank, Vibeke A; Barratt, Monica J; Dahl, Helle Vibeke; Potter, Gary R

2015-03-01

How cannabis cultivation is dealt with under various examples of cannabis legalization or regulation is an important consideration in design of such schemes. This study aimed to (i) investigate support among current or recent cannabis growers, for various potential policy options for cannabis cultivation if prohibition were repealed, and (ii) explore the support for these options across countries, scale of growing operations, demographics, drug use and cannabis supply involvement variables. This study utilized data from the online web survey of largely 'small-scale' cannabis cultivators, aged 18yrs and over, in eleven countries conducted by the Global Cannabis Cultivation Research Consortium (GCCRC). Data from 1722 current and recent cannabis growers in Australia, Denmark and the UK, who were all asked about policy, were included in the analysis. It investigated support for various frameworks for cultivation: (no regulation (free market); adult only; growing licenses; restrictions on plant numbers; licensed business-only sale; approved commercial growing; etc.). Among current growers, support for these options were compared across countries, across scale of growing operations, and by demographics, drug use and crime variables. Although there were some between country differences in support for the various policy options, what was striking was the similarity of the proportions for each of the eight most popular policy options. Among current growers, many of these positions were predicted by demographic, drug use and cannabis growing variables which were conceptually congruent with these positions. The results have relevance for the provisions regarding cannabis cultivation in the design of new non-prohibitionist models of cannabis which are increasingly under consideration. It should be of interest to policy makers, drug policy researchers, law enforcement and cannabis cultivators. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of agricultural conservation practices on N loads in the Mississippi-Atchafalya River Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A modeling framework consisting of a farm-scale model, Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX); a watershedscale model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT); and databases was used in the Conservation Effects Assessment Project to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practi...

Doublethink and scale mismatch polarize policies for an invasive tree

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, Caleb P.; Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Twidwell, Dirac

2018-01-01

Mismatches between invasive species management policies and ecological knowledge can lead to profound societal consequences. For this reason, natural resource agencies have adopted the scientifically-based density-impact invasive species curve to guide invasive species management. We use the density-impact model to evaluate how well management policies for a native invader (Juniperus virginiana) match scientific guidelines. Juniperus virginiana invasion is causing a sub-continental regime shift from grasslands to woodlands in central North America, and its impacts span collapses in endemic diversity, heightened wildfire risk, and crashes in grazing land profitability. We (1) use land cover data to identify the stage of Juniperus virginiana invasion for three ecoregions within Nebraska, USA, (2) determine the range of invasion stages at individual land parcel extents within each ecoregion based on the density-impact model, and (3) determine policy alignment and mismatches relative to the density-impact model in order to assess their potential to meet sustainability targets and avoid societal impacts as Juniperus virginiana abundance increases. We found that nearly all policies evidenced doublethink and policy-ecology mismatches, for instance, promoting spread of Juniperus virginiana regardless of invasion stage while simultaneously managing it as a native invader in the same ecoregion. Like other invasive species, theory and literature for this native invader indicate that the consequences of invasion are unlikely to be prevented if policies fail to prioritize management at incipient invasion stages. Theory suggests a more realistic approach would be to align policy with the stage of invasion at local and ecoregion management scales. There is a need for scientists, policy makers, and ecosystem managers to move past ideologies governing native versus non-native invader classification and toward a framework that accounts for the uniqueness of native species invasions, their anthropogenic drivers, and their impacts on ecosystem services.

Scale Issues in Air Quality Modeling Policy Support

EPA Science Inventory

This study examines the issues relating to the use of regional photochemical air quality models for evaluating their performance in reproducing the spatio-temporal features embedded in the observations and for designing emission control strategies needed to achieve compliance wit...

Energy demand analytics using coupled technological and economic models

EPA Science Inventory

Impacts of a range of policy scenarios on end-use energy demand are examined using a coupling of MARKAL, an energy system model with extensive supply and end-use technological detail, with Inforum LIFT, a large-scale model of the us. economy with inter-industry, government, and c...

Uncertainty considerations in calibration and validation of hydrologic and water quality models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hydrologic and water quality models (HWQMs) are increasingly used to support decisions on the state of various environmental issues and policy directions on present and future scenarios, at scales varying from watershed to continental levels. Uncertainty associated with such models may impact the ca...

New tuberculosis technologies: challenges for retooling and scale-up.

PubMed

Pai, M; Palamountain, K M

2012-10-01

The availability of new tools does not mean that they will be adopted, used correctly, scaled up or have public health impact. Experience to date with new diagnostics suggests that many national tuberculosis programmes (NTPs) in high-burden countries are reluctant to adopt and scale up new tools, even when these are backed by evidence and global policy recommendations. We suggest that there are several common barriers to effective national adoption and scale-up of new technologies: global policy recommendations that do not provide sufficient information for scale-up, complex decision-making processes and weak political commitment at the country level, limited engagement of and support to NTP managers, high cost of tools and poor fit with user needs, unregulated markets and inadequate business models, limited capacity for laboratory strengthening and implementation research, and insufficient advocacy and donor support. Overcoming these barriers will require enhanced country-level advocacy, resources, technical assistance and political commitment. Some of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) countries are emerging as early adopters of policies and technologies, and are increasing their investments in TB control. They may provide the first opportunities to fully assess the public health impact of new tools.

Estimating ecosystem service changes as a precursor to modeling

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Future Midwestern Landscapes Study will project changes in ecosystem services (ES) for alternative future policy scenarios in the Midwestern U.S. Doing so for detailed landscapes over large spatial scales will require serial application of economic and ecological models. W...

Economic Effects of Reservoir Re-operation Policy in the Rio Grande/Bravo for Sustainable Human and Environmental Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz Partida, J. P.; Sandoval Solis, S.; Lane, B.

2015-12-01

A central challenge of integrated water management is the design and implementation of policies to allocate water to both humans and the environment in a sustainable manner. This study uses the results from a reach-scale water-planning model to quantify and compare the economic benefits of two water management policies: (1) a business as usual (Baseline) policy and (2) a proposed reservoir re-operation policy to provide environmental flows (EFs). Results show that the EF policy would increase water supply profit, slightly decrease recreational activities profit, and reduce costs from flood damage and environmental restoration compared to the Baseline policy. In addition to supporting ecological objectives, the proposed EF policy would increase the economic benefits of water management objectives.

Understanding Climate Policy Data Needs. NASA Carbon Monitoring System Briefing: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty, Washington D.C., 11 January 2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Macauley, Molly

2012-01-01

Climate policy in the United States is currently guided by public-private partnerships and actions at the local and state levels. This mitigation strategy is made up of programs that focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, agricultural practices and implementation of technologies to reduce greenhouse gases. How will policy makers know if these strategies are working, particularly at the scales at which they are being implemented? The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) will provide information on carbon dioxide fluxes derived from observations of earth's land, ocean and atmosphere used in state of the art models describing their interactions. This new modeling system could be used to assess the impact of specific policy interventions on CO2 reductions, enabling an iterative, results-oriented policy process. In January of 2012, the CMS team held a meeting with carbon policy and decision makers in Washington DC to describe the developing modeling system to policy makers. The NASA CMS will develop pilot studies to provide information across a range of spatial scales, consider carbon storage in biomass, and improve measures of the atmospheric distribution of carbon dioxide. The pilot involves multiple institutions (four NASA centers as well as several universities) and over 20 scientists in its work. This pilot study will generate CO2 flux maps for two years using observational constraints in NASA's state-of -the-art models. Bottom-up surface flux estimates will be computed using data-constrained land and ocean models; comparison of the different techniques will provide some knowledge of uncertainty in these estimates. Ensembles of atmospheric carbon distributions will be computed using an atmospheric general circulation model (GEOS-5), with perturbations to the surface fluxes and to transport. Top-down flux estimates will be computed from observed atmospheric CO2 distributions (ACOS/GOSAT retrievals) alongside the forward-model fields, in conjunction with an inverse approach based on the CO2 model of GEOS ]Chem. The forward model ensembles will be used to build understanding of relationships among surface flux perturbations, transport uncertainty and atmospheric carbon concentration. This will help construct uncertainty estimates and information on the true spatial resolution of the top-down flux calculations. The relationship between the top-down and bottom-up flux distributions will be documented. Because the goal of NASA CMS is to be policy relevant, the scientists involved in the flux modeling pilot need to understand and be focused on the needs of the climate policy and decision making community. If policy makers are to use CMS products, they must be aware of the modeling effort and begin to design policies that can be evaluated with information. Improving estimates of carbon sequestered in forests, for example, will require information on the spatial variability of forest biomass that is far more explicit than is presently possible using only ground observations. Carbon mitigation policies being implemented by cities around the United States could be designed with the CMS data in mind, enabling sequential evaluation and subsequent improvements in incentives, structures and programs. The success of climate mitigation programs being implemented in the United States today will hang on the depth of the relationship between scientists and their policy and decision making counterparts. Ensuring that there is two-way communication between data providers and users is important for the success both of the policies and the scientific products meant to support them..

Compendium of Anomaly Detection and Reaction Tools and Projects

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-05-17

identify changes to the risk levels of business network functions based on proposed modifications. Expert can model networks as well (see special...can easily scale to support any size network from departmental systems to enterprise-wide environments. ACX is scaled with the use of a Policy Model ...Defender is a host-based intrusion detector designed for use on home or small business systems. It scans all inbound and outbound Internet traffic for

Potential biomass and logs from fire-hazard-reduction treatments in Southwest Oregon and Northern California

Treesearch

R. James Barbour; Jeremy Fried; Peter J. Daugherty; Glenn Christensen; Roger. Fight

2008-01-01

The FIA BioSum model was used to simulate three fire-hazard-reduction policies in an area comprising northern California, southwestern Oregon, and the east slopes of the Cascade Mountains in Oregon. The policy scenarios, all subject to a stand-scale fire-hazard-reduction effectiveness constraint, included maximize torching index improvement (Max TI), maximize net...

Efforts to Address the Aging Academic Workforce: Assessing Progress through a Three-Stage Model of Institutional Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaskie, Brian; Walker, Mark; Andersson, Matthew

2017-01-01

The aging of the academic workforce is becoming more relevant to policy discussions in higher education. Yet there has been no formal, large-scale analysis of institutional efforts to develop policies and programs for aging employees. We fielded a representative survey of human resource specialists at 187 colleges and universities across the…

Scale-Up of Safe & Civil Schools' Model for School-Wide Positive Behavioral Interventions and Supports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smolkowski, Keith; Strycker, Lisa; Ward, Bryce

2016-01-01

This study evaluated the scale-up of a Safe & Civil Schools "Foundations: Establishing Positive Discipline Policies" positive behavioral interventions and supports initiative through 4 years of "real-world" implementation in a large urban school district. The study extends results from a previous randomized controlled trial…

Climate Change, Air Pollution, and the Economics of Health Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reilly, J.; Yang, T.; Paltsev, S.; Wang, C.; Prinn, R.; Sarofim, M.

2003-12-01

Climate change and air pollution are intricately linked. The distinction between greenhouse substances and other air pollutants is resolved at least for the time being in the context of international negotiations on climate policy through the identification of CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 and the per- and hydro- fluorocarbons as substances targeted for control. Many of the traditional air pollutant emissions including for example CO, NMVOCs, NOx, SO2, aerosols, and NH3 also directly or indirectly affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Among both sets of gases are precursors of and contributors to pollutants such as tropopospheric ozone, itself a strong greenhouse gas, particulate matter, and other pollutants that affect human health. Fossil fuel combustion, production, or transportation is a significant source for many of these substances. Climate policy can thus affect traditional air pollution or air pollution policy can affect climate. Health effects of acute or chronic exposure to air pollution include increased asthma, lung cancer, heart disease and bronchitis among others. These, in turn, redirect resources in the economy toward medical expenditures or result in lost labor or non-labor time with consequent effects on economic activity, itself producing a potential feedback on emissions levels. Study of these effects ultimately requires a fully coupled earth system model. Toward that end we develop an approach for introducing air pollution health impacts into the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a component of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) a coupled economics-chemistry-atmosphere-ocean-terrestrial biosphere model of earth systems including an air pollution model resolving the urban scale. This preliminary examination allows us to consider how climate policy affects air pollution and consequent health effects, and to study the potential impacts of air pollution policy on climate. The novel contribution is the effort to endogenize air pollution impacts within the EPPA model, allowing us to study potential economic effects and feedbacks. We find strong interaction between air pollution and economies, although precise estimates of the effects require further investigation and refined resolution of the urban scale chemistry model.

Development of a hydrologic connectivity dataset for SWAT assessments in the U.S.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Model based water quality assessments are as important informer of conservation and environmental policy in the US. The recently completed national scale Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) is being repeated using newer data, greater resolution, and enhanced models. National assessment...

The evaluation of the development mode of electric energy and air pollution control in Beijing based on the IPAC-SGM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Erdong; Guo, Chaoran; Liu, Liwei; Dai, Sichen; Li, Shangqi

2017-04-01

In recent years, China broke out a large-scale of fog and haze, particularly Beijing. Energy production and consumption of fossil fuel combustion emissions is the main source of environmental pollution and haze, and it is most prominent in the power industry. In this paper, we evaluate the relationship between Beijing power structure and the prevention and control of atmospheric pollution by Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China - Second Generation Model (IPAC-SGM). This paper explores the propulsion effect of the new energy industry on Beijing’s air pollution prevention and control by simulating the change of development of electric energy in Beijing under three scenarios which are benchmark scenario, general policy scenario and reinforced policy scenario.

Western Lake Erie Basin: Soft-data-constrained, NHDPlus resolution watershed modeling and exploration of applicable conservation scenarios

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relat...

Coastal and river flood risk analyses for guiding economically optimal flood adaptation policies: a country-scale study for Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; van Roomen, Vincent; Connor, Harry; Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge; Eilander, Dirk M.; Ward, Philip J.

2018-06-01

Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost-benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

A Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model for Policy Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barron, R. W.; Hill, M. C.

2017-12-01

Although integrated assessments of climate change policy have frequently identified nuclear energy as a promising alternative to fossil fuels, these studies have often treated nuclear waste disposal very simply. Simple assumptions about nuclear waste are problematic because they may not be adequate to capture relevant costs and uncertainties, which could result in suboptimal policy choices. Modeling nuclear waste management costs is a cross-disciplinary, multi-scale problem that involves economic, geologic and environmental processes that operate at vastly different temporal scales. Similarly, the climate-related costs and benefits of nuclear energy are dependent on environmental sensitivity to CO2 emissions and radiation, nuclear energy's ability to offset carbon emissions, and the risk of nuclear accidents, factors which are all deeply uncertain. Alternative value systems further complicate the problem by suggesting different approaches to valuing intergenerational impacts. Effective policy assessment of nuclear energy requires an integrated approach to modeling nuclear waste management that (1) bridges disciplinary and temporal gaps, (2) supports an iterative, adaptive process that responds to evolving understandings of uncertainties, and (3) supports a broad range of value systems. This work develops the Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model (NWMCM). NWMCM provides a flexible framework for evaluating the cost of nuclear waste management across a range of technology pathways and value systems. We illustrate how NWMCM can support policy analysis by estimating how different nuclear waste disposal scenarios developed using the NWMCM framework affect the results of a recent integrated assessment study of alternative energy futures and their effects on the cost of achieving carbon abatement targets. Results suggest that the optimism reflected in previous works is fragile: Plausible nuclear waste management costs and discount rates appropriate for intergenerational cost-benefit analysis produce many scenarios where nuclear energy is economically unattractive.

Entering AN ERA of Synthesis of Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerin, Stephen

First, I believe we're entering an era of synthesis of modeling. Over the past 20 years, we've seen the proliferation of many isolated complex systems models. I think we now need tools for researchers, policy makers and the public to share models. Sharing could happen by stacking different layers of spatial agent-based models in geographic information systems and projecting interactive visualization out onto shared surfaces. Further, we need to make model authoring tools much more accessible to the point where motivated policy makers can author on their own. With the increased ability to author and share models, I believe this will allow us to scale our research to understand and manage the many interacting systems that make up our complex world...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Manowitz, David H.

Accurate quantification and clear understanding of regional scale cropland carbon (C) cycling is critical for designing effective policies and management practices that can contribute toward stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, extrapolating site-scale observations to regional scales represents a major challenge confronting the agricultural modeling community. This study introduces a novel geospatial agricultural modeling system (GAMS) exploring the integration of the mechanistic Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model, spatially-resolved data, surveyed management data, and supercomputing functions for cropland C budgets estimates. This modeling system creates spatially-explicit modeling units at a spatial resolution consistent with remotely-sensed crop identification and assigns cropping systems tomore » each of them by geo-referencing surveyed crop management information at the county or state level. A parallel computing algorithm was also developed to facilitate the computationally intensive model runs and output post-processing and visualization. We evaluated GAMS against National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported crop yields and inventory estimated county-scale cropland C budgets averaged over 2000–2008. We observed good overall agreement, with spatial correlation of 0.89, 0.90, 0.41, and 0.87, for crop yields, Net Primary Production (NPP), Soil Organic C (SOC) change, and Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), respectively. However, we also detected notable differences in the magnitude of NPP and NEE, as well as in the spatial pattern of SOC change. By performing crop-specific annual comparisons, we discuss possible explanations for the discrepancies between GAMS and the inventory method, such as data requirements, representation of agroecosystem processes, completeness and accuracy of crop management data, and accuracy of crop area representation. Based on these analyses, we further discuss strategies to improve GAMS by updating input data and by designing more efficient parallel computing capability to quantitatively assess errors associated with the simulation of C budget components. The modularized design of the GAMS makes it flexible to be updated and adapted for different agricultural models so long as they require similar input data, and to be linked with socio-economic models to understand the effectiveness and implications of diverse C management practices and policies.« less

Model confirmation in climate economics

PubMed Central

Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

2016-01-01

Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

A hierarchical spatial framework for forest landscape planning.

Treesearch

Pete Bettinger; Marie Lennette; K. Norman Johnson; Thomas A. Spies

2005-01-01

A hierarchical spatial framework for large-scale, long-term forest landscape planning is presented along with example policy analyses for a 560,000 ha area of the Oregon Coast Range. The modeling framework suggests utilizing the detail provided by satellite imagery to track forest vegetation condition and for representation of fine-scale features, such as riparian...

Development and validation of SEER (Seeking, Engaging with and Evaluating Research): a measure of policymakers' capacity to engage with and use research.

PubMed

Brennan, Sue E; McKenzie, Joanne E; Turner, Tari; Redman, Sally; Makkar, Steve; Williamson, Anna; Haynes, Abby; Green, Sally E

2017-01-17

Capacity building strategies are widely used to increase the use of research in policy development. However, a lack of well-validated measures for policy contexts has hampered efforts to identify priorities for capacity building and to evaluate the impact of strategies. We aimed to address this gap by developing SEER (Seeking, Engaging with and Evaluating Research), a self-report measure of individual policymakers' capacity to engage with and use research. We used the SPIRIT Action Framework to identify pertinent domains and guide development of items for measuring each domain. Scales covered (1) individual capacity to use research (confidence in using research, value placed on research, individual perceptions of the value their organisation places on research, supporting tools and systems), (2) actions taken to engage with research and researchers, and (3) use of research to inform policy (extent and type of research use). A sample of policymakers engaged in health policy development provided data to examine scale reliability (internal consistency, test-retest) and validity (relation to measures of similar concepts, relation to a measure of intention to use research, internal structure of the individual capacity scales). Response rates were 55% (150/272 people, 12 agencies) for the validity and internal consistency analyses, and 54% (57/105 people, 9 agencies) for test-retest reliability. The individual capacity scales demonstrated adequate internal consistency reliability (alpha coefficients > 0.7, all four scales) and test-retest reliability (intra-class correlation coefficients > 0.7 for three scales and 0.59 for fourth scale). Scores on individual capacity scales converged as predicted with measures of similar concepts (moderate correlations of > 0.4), and confirmatory factor analysis provided evidence that the scales measured related but distinct concepts. Items in each of these four scales related as predicted to concepts in the measurement model derived from the SPIRIT Action Framework. Evidence about the reliability and validity of the research engagement actions and research use scales was equivocal. Initial testing of SEER suggests that the four individual capacity scales may be used in policy settings to examine current capacity and identify areas for capacity building. The relation between capacity, research engagement actions and research use requires further investigation.

Predictive and Reactive Distribution of Vaccines and Antivirals during Cross-Regional Pandemic Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Uribe-Sánchez, Andrés; Savachkin, Alex

2011-01-01

As recently pointed out by the Institute of Medicine, the existing pandemic mitigation models lack the dynamic decision support capability. We develop a large-scale simulation-driven optimization model for generating dynamic predictive distribution of vaccines and antivirals over a network of regional pandemic outbreaks. The model incorporates measures of morbidity, mortality, and social distancing, translated into the cost of lost productivity and medical expenses. The performance of the strategy is compared to that of the reactive myopic policy, using a sample outbreak in Fla, USA, with an affected population of over four millions. The comparison is implemented at different levels of vaccine and antiviral availability and administration capacity. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of variability of some critical factors on policy performance. The model is intended to support public health policy making for effective distribution of limited mitigation resources. PMID:23074658

Impacting Multiunit Housing Managers' Beliefs About the Benefits of Adopting Smoke-Free Policies: A Pilot Investigation.

PubMed

Brett, Emma I; Leavens, Eleanor L; Wiener, Josh I

2018-02-01

To examine the influence of providing multiunit housing (MUH) managers with a resource manual for MUH smoke-free policy implementation on manager perceptions of smoke-free policies. One-group within-subject pretest-posttest design examining manager perceptions of smoke-free policies. Random sampling of MUH managers in Oklahoma. Forty-six MUH managers. The SMOKEFREE Landlord Manual (SLM) provides information on smoke-free policies and implementation resources. Beliefs regarding implementation of smoke-free policies were measured on a Likert scale before and after receiving the manual. A general linear model examined changes in beliefs regarding implementation of a smoke-free policy. After receiving the manual, managers were more likely to agree with positive beliefs about smoke-free policies (Wilks λ = 0.59, F[18, 70] = 2.68, P < .01). The MUH managers endorsed more positive beliefs regarding smoke-free policies following the receipt of the SLM.

City scale climate change policies: Do they matter for wellbeing?

PubMed

Hiscock, Rosemary; Asikainen, Arja; Tuomisto, Jouni; Jantunen, Matti; Pärjälä, Erkki; Sabel, Clive E

2017-06-01

Climate change mitigation policies aim to reduce climate change through reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions whereas adaption policies seek to enable humans to live in a world with increasingly variable and more extreme climatic conditions. It is increasingly realised that enacting such policies will have unintended implications for public health, but there has been less focus on their implications for wellbeing. Wellbeing can be defined as a positive mental state which is influenced by living conditions. As part of URGENCHE, an EU funded project to identify health and wellbeing outcomes of city greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, a survey designed to measure these living conditions and levels of wellbeing in Kuopio, Finland was collected in December 2013. Kuopio was the northmost among seven cities in Europe and China studied. Generalised estimating equation modelling was used to determine which living conditions were associated with subjective wellbeing (measured through the WHO-5 Scale). Local greenspace and spending time in nature were associated with higher levels of wellbeing whereas cold housing and poor quality indoor air were associated with lower levels of wellbeing. Thus adaption policies to increase greenspace might, in addition to reducing heat island effects, have the co-benefit of increasing wellbeing and improving housing insulation.

Developing a new perspective to study the health of survivors of Sichuan earthquakes in China: a study on the effect of post-earthquake rescue policies on survivors’ health-related quality of life

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Sichuan is a province in China with an extensive history of earthquakes. Recent earthquakes, including the Lushan earthquake in 2013, have resulted in thousands of people losing their homes and their families. However, there is a research gap on the efficiency of government support policies. Therefore, this study develops a new perspective to study the health of earthquake survivors, based on the effect of post-earthquake rescue policies on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of survivors of the Sichuan earthquake. Methods This study uses data from a survey conducted in five hard-hit counties (Wenchuan, Qingchuan, Mianzhu, Lushan, and Dujiangyan) in Sichuan in 2013. A total of 2,000 questionnaires were distributed, and 1,672 were returned; the response rate was 83.6%. Results Results of the rescue policies scale and Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 (SF-36) scale passed the reliability test. The confirmatory factor analysis model showed that the physical component summary (PCS) directly affected the mental component summary (MCS). The results of structural equation model regarding the effects of rescue policies on HRQOL showed that the path coefficients of six policies (education, orphans, employment, poverty, legal, and social rescue policies) to the PCS of survivors were all positive and passed the test of significance. Finally, although only the path coefficient of the educational rescue policy to the MCS of survivors was positive and passed the test of significance, the other five policies affected the MCS indirectly through the PCS. Conclusions The general HRQOL of survivors is not ideal; the survivors showed a low satisfaction with the post-earthquake rescue policies. Further, the six post-earthquake rescue policies significantly improved the HRQOL of survivors and directly affected the promotion of the PCS of survivors. Aside from the educational rescue policy, all other policies affected the MCS indirectly through the PCS. This finding indicates relatively large differences in the effects of different post-earthquake rescue policies on the HRQOL of survivors. PMID:24168028

Developing a new perspective to study the health of survivors of Sichuan earthquakes in China: a study on the effect of post-earthquake rescue policies on survivors' health-related quality of life.

PubMed

Liang, Ying; Wang, Xiukun

2013-10-29

Sichuan is a province in China with an extensive history of earthquakes. Recent earthquakes, including the Lushan earthquake in 2013, have resulted in thousands of people losing their homes and their families. However, there is a research gap on the efficiency of government support policies. Therefore, this study develops a new perspective to study the health of earthquake survivors, based on the effect of post-earthquake rescue policies on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of survivors of the Sichuan earthquake. This study uses data from a survey conducted in five hard-hit counties (Wenchuan, Qingchuan, Mianzhu, Lushan, and Dujiangyan) in Sichuan in 2013. A total of 2,000 questionnaires were distributed, and 1,672 were returned; the response rate was 83.6%. Results of the rescue policies scale and Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 (SF-36) scale passed the reliability test. The confirmatory factor analysis model showed that the physical component summary (PCS) directly affected the mental component summary (MCS). The results of structural equation model regarding the effects of rescue policies on HRQOL showed that the path coefficients of six policies (education, orphans, employment, poverty, legal, and social rescue policies) to the PCS of survivors were all positive and passed the test of significance. Finally, although only the path coefficient of the educational rescue policy to the MCS of survivors was positive and passed the test of significance, the other five policies affected the MCS indirectly through the PCS. The general HRQOL of survivors is not ideal; the survivors showed a low satisfaction with the post-earthquake rescue policies. Further, the six post-earthquake rescue policies significantly improved the HRQOL of survivors and directly affected the promotion of the PCS of survivors. Aside from the educational rescue policy, all other policies affected the MCS indirectly through the PCS. This finding indicates relatively large differences in the effects of different post-earthquake rescue policies on the HRQOL of survivors.

Evolution of models to support community and policy action with science: Balancing pastoral livelihoods and wildlife conservation in savannas of East Africa.

PubMed

Reid, R S; Nkedianye, D; Said, M Y; Kaelo, D; Neselle, M; Makui, O; Onetu, L; Kiruswa, S; Kamuaro, N Ole; Kristjanson, P; Ogutu, J; BurnSilver, S B; Goldman, M J; Boone, R B; Galvin, K A; Dickson, N M; Clark, W C

2016-04-26

We developed a "continual engagement" model to better integrate knowledge from policy makers, communities, and researchers with the goal of promoting more effective action to balance poverty alleviation and wildlife conservation in 4 pastoral ecosystems of East Africa. The model involved the creation of a core boundary-spanning team, including community facilitators, a policy facilitator, and transdisciplinary researchers, responsible for linking with a wide range of actors from local to global scales. Collaborative researcher-facilitator community teams integrated local and scientific knowledge to help communities and policy makers improve herd quality and health, expand biodiversity payment schemes, develop land-use plans, and fully engage together in pastoral and wildlife policy development. This model focused on the creation of hybrid scientific-local knowledge highly relevant to community and policy maker needs. The facilitation team learned to be more effective by focusing on noncontroversial livelihood issues before addressing more difficult wildlife issues, using strategic and periodic engagement with most partners instead of continual engagement, and reducing costs by providing new scientific information only when deemed essential. We conclude by examining the role of facilitation in redressing asymmetries in power in researcher-community-policy maker teams, the role of individual values and character in establishing trust, and how to sustain knowledge-action links when project funding ends.

China's one-child policy, a policy without a future. Pitfalls of the “common good” argument and the authoritarian model.

PubMed

Nie, Jing-Bao

2014-07-01

The Chinese Communist Party government has been forcefully promoting its jihua shengyu (planned fertility) program, known as the "one-child policy," for more than three decades. A distinctive authoritarian model of population governance has been developed. A pertinent question to be asked is whether China's one-child policy and the authoritarian model of population governance have a future. The answer must be no; they do not. Although there are many demographic, economic, and social rationales for terminating the one-child policy, the most fundamental reason for opposing its continuation is drawn from ethics. The key ethical rationale offered for the policy is that it promotes the common social good, not only for China and the Chinese people but for the whole human family. The major irony associated with this apparently convincing justification is that, although designed to improve living standards and help relieve poverty and underdevelopment, the one-child policy and the application of the authoritarian model have instead caused massive suffering to Chinese people, especially women, and made them victims of state violence. A lesson from China--one learned at the cost of individual and social suffering on an enormous scale--is that an essential prerequisite for the pursuit of the common good is the creation of adequate constraints on state power.

A megaregion-scale approach for assessing the impacts of climate change and strategic management decisions in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, B.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Stewart, R. J.; Miara, A.; Lu, X.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ehsani, N.; Wollheim, W. M.; Melillo, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Dilekli, N.; Duchin, F.; Gross, B.; Bhatt, V.

2014-12-01

'Megaregions' have been identified as an important new scale of geography for policy decision-making in the United States. These regions extend beyond local boundaries (ie. cities, states) to incorporate areas with linked economies, infrastructure and land-use patterns and shared climate and environmental systems, such as watersheds. The corridor of densely connected metropolitan areas and surrounding hinterlands along the U.S. east coast from Maine to Virginia is the archetype of this type of unit: The Northeast Megaregion. The Northeast faces a unique set of policy challenges including: projections of a wetter, more extreme climate, aging and underfunded infrastructure and economically distressed rural areas. Megaregion-scale policy efforts such as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and support for a regional food system have been recognized as strategic tools for climate change mitigation and adaptation, but decision-makers have limited information on the potential consequences of these strategies on the complex natural-human system of the Northeast, under various scenarios of global climate change. We have developed a Northeast Regional Earth System Model (NE-RESM) as a framework to provide this type of information. We integrate terrestrial ecosystem, hydrologic, energy system and economic models to investigate scenarios of paired regional socioeconomic pathways and global climate projections. Our initial results suggest that megaregion-scale strategic decisions in the Northeast may have important consequences for both local water management and global climate change mitigation.

Use of Fuzzy rainfall-runoff predictions for claypan watersheds with conservation buffers in Northeast Missouri

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Despite increased interest in watershed scale model simulations, literature lacks application of long-term data in fuzzy logic simulations and comparing outputs with physically based models such as APEX (Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender). The objective of this study was to develop a fuzzy...

Modeling Soil Organic Carbon in a Semiarid Region of Kazakhstan Using EPIC

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Inappropriate land use and soil mismanagement produced wide-scale soil and environmental degradation to the short-grass steppe ecosystem in the semiarid region of Kazakhstan. We used the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to study long-term impacts of land use changes and soil mana...

A spatial-dynamic value transfer model of economic losses from a biological invasion

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Kent F. Kovacs; Betsy Von Holle

2010-01-01

Rigorous assessments of the economic impacts of introduced species at broad spatial scales are required to provide credible information to policy makers. We propose that economic models of aggregate damages induced by biological invasions need to link microeconomic analyses of site-specific economic damages with spatial-dynamic models of value change associated with...

Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change on Summertime Ozone using a Relative Response Factor approach for Policy Makers

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of climate change on surface level ozone is examined through a multi-scale modeling effort that linked global and regional climate models to drive air quality model simulations. Results are quantified in terms of the Relative Response Factor (RRF_E), which es...

RUSLE2015, GIS-RWEQ and CENTURY: new modelling integration for soil loss and carbon fluxes at European scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Lugato, Emanuele

2016-04-01

Land degradation through erosion has been identified as major threat to European soils and agriculture. During the last years, the Directorates General for Agriculture and for Environment (plus EUROSTAT) require formal assessments and indicators on the state of soil erosion for the European Union. Moreover, the European Soil Data Centre (ESDAC) is the main data repository for soil threats at European scale. To meet these needs we have worked with recognized research institutes and scientists to develop a series of pan-EU modelling tools that estimate soil erosion by water and wind. Over the past three years, the European Commission Joint Research Centre has worked to develop a modified RUSLE modelling approach, named RUSLE2015 and the necessary input factors. These have all been peer reviewed and published as individual papers in different refereed journals. The published soil erodibility map for Europe has been modelled with the latest state of the art soil data (LUCAS) and a robust geo-statistical model (Science of Total Environment, 479-480: 189-200). Rainfall erosivity has been modelled after an extensive data collection of high temporal resolution rainfall data and the compilation of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) (Science of Total Environment, 511: 801-814). Cover-Management factor has been modelled taking into account crop composition, management practices (reduced tillage, plant residues, cover crops) and remote sensing data on vegetation density (Land Use policy, 48C: 38-50). Topography has been modelled with the recently published Digital Elevation Model at 25m resolution (Geosciences, 5: 117-126). Conservation and support practices have included the Good Agricultural Environmental Condition (GAEC database) and the 270,000 earth observations of LUCAS survey (Environmental Science & Policy 51: 23-34). The new assessment of soil erosion by water in Europe has been recently published (Environmental Science & Policy. 54: 438-447) and subsequently the core message focusing on soil erosion in agricultural lands was published in a recent correspondence in Nature (Nature, 526, 195). Additionally, the soil erosion potential for the European Union's forests was modelled using the high-resolution Global Forest Cover Loss map (2000-2012) and taking into consideration the lodging, forest cuts and forest fires (Ecological Indicators, 60:1208-1220). The first qualitative assessment of wind erosion at European scale has been done using the Index of Land Susceptibility to Wind Erosion (ILSWE) (Sustainability, 7(7): 8823-8836). The wind-erodible fraction of soil (EF) is one of the key parameters for estimating the susceptibility of soil to wind erosion (Geoderma, 232-234: 471-478). ILSWE was created by combining spatiotemporal variations of the most influential wind erosion factors such as climatic erosivity, soil erodibility, vegetation cover and landscape roughness) (Land Degradation & Development, 10.1002/ldr.2318). The quantitative assessment of wind erosion has been concluded recently using Revised Wind Erosion Equation (GIS-RWEQ). Modelling the lateral carbon fluxes due to soil erosion both at national scale (Land Use Policy, 50: 408-421) and at European scale (Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.13198) is an important milestone in climate change perspective. We coupled soil erosion into a biogeochemistry model, running at 1 km2 resolution across the agricultural soils of the European Union (EU). In the future, the soil erosion (by water and wind) modelling activities will incorporate temporal variability, sediment transport and economic assessments of land degradation.

Geriatric health policy in India: The need for scaling-up implementation

PubMed Central

Paul, N. Sherin Susan; Asirvatham, Mathew

2016-01-01

In an anticipation of the rising geriatric population in India, the Central government constituted the National Policy for Older Persons in 1999 to promote the health and welfare of senior citizens in India. A major strategy of this policy is to encourage families to take care of their older family members. The policy also encourages voluntary organizations to supplement the care provided by the family and provide care and protection to vulnerable elderly people. The implementation of this policy, particularly in the rural areas, has been negligible and calls for a scaling-up of programs to address the physical, psychological, and social needs of the poor. Due to breakdown of the joint family system and the migration of the younger generation to the towns and cities, the elderly parents in the villages are left to fend for themselves. Too old to work and with little or no source of income, the elders are struggling even to satisfy their basic needs. This article primarily focuses on the various facets of elderly care in India. As a fledgling nation in elderly care, we should take cues from other nations who have pioneered in this field and should constantly evolve to identify and face the various challenges that come up, especially from rural India. The Rural Unit for Health and Social Affairs Department of a well-known Medical College in South India has developed a “senior recreation day care” model which proves to be a useful replicable model to improve the quality of life and nutritional status of the elderly in the lower rungs of society. More than a decade since its inception, it is now the right time to assess the implementation of our geriatric health policy and scale-up programs so that the elderly in our country, irrespective of urban and rural, will have a dignified and good quality life. PMID:27843821

Telehealth and Indian healthcare: moving to scale and sustainability.

PubMed

Carroll, Mark; Horton, Mark B

2013-05-01

Telehealth innovation has brought important improvements in access to quality healthcare for American Indian and Alaska Native communities. Despite these improvements, substantive work remains before telehealth capability can be more available and sustainable across Indian healthcare. Some of this work will rely on system change guided by new care model development. Such care model development depends on expansion of telehealth reimbursement. The U.S. Indian healthcare system is an ideal framework for implementing and evaluating large-scale change in U.S. telehealth reimbursement policy.

Ecosystem water imbalances created during ecological restoration by afforestation in China, and lessons for other developing countries.

PubMed

Cao, Shixiong; Zhang, Junze; Chen, Li; Zhao, Tingyang

2016-12-01

Land degradation is a global environmental problem that jeopardizes human safety and socioeconomic development. To alleviate severe soil erosion and desertification due to deforestation and overgrazing, China has implemented historically unprecedented large-scale afforestation. However, few studies have accounted for the resulting imbalance between water supply (primarily precipitation) and water consumption (evapotranspiration), which will affect ecosystem health and socioeconomic development. We compared the water balance results between restoration by means of afforestation and restoration using the potential natural vegetation to guide future ecological restoration planning and environmental policy development. Based on estimates of water consumption from seven evapotranspiration models, we discuss the consequences for water security using data obtained since 1952 under China's large-scale afforestation program. The models estimated that afforestation will increase water consumption by 559-2354 m 3 /ha annually compared with natural vegetation. Although afforestation is a potentially important approach for environmental restoration, China's current policy has not been tailored to local precipitation conditions, and will have therefore exacerbated water shortages and decrease the ability to achieve environmental policy goals. Our analysis shows how, both in China and around the world, future ecological restoration planning must account for the water balance to ensure effective and sustainable environmental restoration policy. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Trade-offs across space, time, and ecosystem services

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez, J.P.; Beard, T.D.; Bennett, E.M.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Cork, S.J.; Agard, J.; Dobson, A.P.; Peterson, G.D.

2006-01-01

Ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs arise from management choices made by humans, which can change the type, magnitude, and relative mix of services provided by ecosystems. Trade-offs occur when the provision of one ES is reduced as a consequence of increased use of another ES. In some cases, a trade-off may be an explicit choice; but in others, trade-offs arise without premeditation or even awareness that they are taking place. Trade-offs in ES can be classified along three axes: spatial scale, temporal scale, and reversibility. Spatial scale refers to whether the effects of the trade-off are felt locally or at a distant location. Temporal scale refers to whether the effects take place relatively rapidly or slowly. Reversibility expresses the likelihood that the perturbed ES may return to its original state if the perturbation ceases. Across all four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios and selected case study examples, trade-off decisions show a preference for provisioning, regulating, or cultural services (in that order). Supporting services are more likely to be "taken for granted." Cultural ES are almost entirely unquantified in scenario modeling; therefore, the calculated model results do not fully capture losses of these services that occur in the scenarios. The quantitative scenario models primarily capture the services that are perceived by society as more important - provisioning and regulating ecosystem services - and thus do not fully capture trade-offs of cultural and supporting services. Successful management policies will be those that incorporate lessons learned from prior decisions into future management actions. Managers should complement their actions with monitoring programs that, in addition to monitoring the short-term provisions of services, also monitor the long-term evolution of slowly changing variables. Policies can then be developed to take into account ES trade-offs at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Successful strategies will recognize the inherent complexities of ecosystem management and will work to develop policies that minimize the effects of ES trade-offs. Copyright ?? 2006 by the author(s).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen, Melissa R.; Aziz, H. M. Abdul; Coletti, Mark A.

Changing human activity within a geographical location may have significant influence on the global climate, but that activity must be parameterized in such a way as to allow these high-resolution sub-grid processes to affect global climate within that modeling framework. Additionally, we must have tools that provide decision support and inform local and regional policies regarding mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. The development of next-generation earth system models, that can produce actionable results with minimum uncertainties, depends on understanding global climate change and human activity interactions at policy implementation scales. Unfortunately, at best we currently have only limitedmore » schemes for relating high-resolution sectoral emissions to real-time weather, ultimately to become part of larger regions and well-mixed atmosphere. Moreover, even our understanding of meteorological processes at these scales is imperfect. This workshop addresses these shortcomings by providing a forum for discussion of what we know about these processes, what we can model, where we have gaps in these areas and how we can rise to the challenge to fill these gaps.« less

Coastal and river flood risk analyses for guiding economically optimal flood adaptation policies: a country-scale study for Mexico.

PubMed

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; van Roomen, Vincent; Connor, Harry; Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge; Eilander, Dirk M; Ward, Philip J

2018-06-13

Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost-benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Projecting the effects of long-term care policy on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability: insights from a dynamic simulation model.

PubMed

Ansah, John P; Matchar, David B; Malhotra, Rahul; Love, Sean R; Liu, Chang; Do, Young

2016-03-23

Using Singapore as a case study, this paper aims to understand the effects of the current long-term care policy and various alternative policy options on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability. A model of the long-term care system in Singapore was developed using System Dynamics methodology. Under the current long-term care policy, by 2030, 6.9 percent of primary informal family caregivers (0.34 percent of the domestic labor supply) are expected to withdraw from the labor market. Alternative policy options reduce primary informal family caregiver labor market withdrawal; however, the number of workers required to scale up long-term care services is greater than the number of caregivers who can be expected to return to the labor market. Policymakers may face a dilemma between admitting more foreign workers to provide long-term care services and depending on primary informal family caregivers.

Morbidity Forecast in Cities: A Study of Urban Air Pollution and Respiratory Diseases in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba, Brazil.

PubMed

de Souza, Fabio Teodoro

2018-05-29

In the last two decades, urbanization has intensified, and in Brazil, about 90% of the population now lives in urban centers. Atmospheric patterns have changed owing to the high growth rate of cities, with negative consequences for public health. This research aims to elucidate the spatial patterns of air pollution and respiratory diseases. A data-based model to aid local urban management to improve public health policies concerning air pollution is described. An example of data preparation and multivariate analysis with inventories from different cities in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba was studied. A predictive model with outstanding accuracy in prediction of outbreaks was developed. Preliminary results describe relevant relations among morbidity scales, air pollution levels, and atmospheric seasonal patterns. The knowledge gathered here contributes to the debate on social issues and public policies. Moreover, the results of this smaller scale study can be extended to megacities.

Correcting Measurement Error in Latent Regression Covariates via the MC-SIMEX Method

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rutkowski, Leslie; Zhou, Yan

2015-01-01

Given the importance of large-scale assessments to educational policy conversations, it is critical that subpopulation achievement is estimated reliably and with sufficient precision. Despite this importance, biased subpopulation estimates have been found to occur when variables in the conditioning model side of a latent regression model contain…

Calibration of state and transition models with FVS

Treesearch

Melinda Moeur; Don Vandendriesche

2010-01-01

The Interagency Mapping and Assessment Project (IMAP), a partnership between federal and state agencies, is developing mid-scale vegetation data and state and transition models (STM) for comparing the likely outcomes of alternative management policies on forested landscapes across the Pacific Northwest Region. In an STM, acres within a forested ecosystem transition...

Stability of Teacher Value-Added Rankings across Measurement Model and Scaling Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hawley, Leslie R.; Bovaird, James A.; Wu, ChaoRong

2017-01-01

Value-added assessment methods have been criticized by researchers and policy makers for a number of reasons. One issue includes the sensitivity of model results across different outcome measures. This study examined the utility of incorporating multivariate latent variable approaches within a traditional value-added framework. We evaluated the…

An Integrated Modeling Framework for Performing Environmental Assessments: Application to Ecosystem Services in the Albemarle-Pamlico Basins (NC and VA,USA)

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses environmental models to inform rulemaking and policy decisions at multiple spatial and temporal scales. As decision-making has moved towards integrated thinking and assessment (e.g. media, site, region, services), the increasing compl...

Wind power for the electric-utility industry: Policy incentives for fuel conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

March, F.; Dlott, E. H.; Korn, D. H.; Madio, F. R.; McArthur, R. C.; Vachon, W. A.

1982-06-01

A systematic method for evaluating the economics of solar-electric/conservation technologies as fuel-savings investments for electric utilities in the presence of changing federal incentive policies is presented. The focus is on wind energy conversion systems (WECS) as the solar technology closest to near-term large scale implementation. Commercially available large WECS are described, along with computer models to calculate the economic impact of the inclusion of WECS as 10% of the base-load generating capacity on a grid. A guide to legal structures and relationships which impinge on large-scale WECS utilization is developed, together with a quantitative examination of the installation of 1000 MWe of WECS capacity by a utility in the northeast states. Engineering and financial analyses were performed, with results indicating government policy changes necessary to encourage the entrance of utilities into the field of windpower utilization.

Development of a brief instrument to measure smartphone addiction among nursing students.

PubMed

Cho, Sumi; Lee, Eunjoo

2015-05-01

Interruptions and distractions due to smartphone use in healthcare settings pose potential risks to patient safety. Therefore, it is important to assess smartphone use at work, to encourage nursing students to review their relevant behaviors, and to recognize these potential risks. This study's aim was to develop a scale to measure smartphone addiction and test its validity and reliability. We investigated nursing students' experiences of distractions caused by smartphones in the clinical setting and their opinions about smartphone use policies. Smartphone addiction and the need for a scale to measure it were identified through a literature review and in-depth interviews with nursing students. This scale showed reliability and validity with exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. In testing the discriminant and convergent validity of the selected (18) items with four factors, the smartphone addiction model explained approximately 91% (goodness-of-fit index = 0.909) of the variance in the data. Pearson correlation coefficients among addiction level, distractions in the clinical setting, and attitude toward policies on smartphone use were calculated. Addiction level and attitude toward policies of smartphone use were negatively correlated. This study suggests that healthcare organizations in Korea should create practical guidelines and policies for the appropriate use of smartphones in clinical practice.

Understanding pathways for scaling up health services through the lens of complex adaptive systems.

PubMed

Paina, Ligia; Peters, David H

2012-08-01

Despite increased prominence and funding of global health initiatives, efforts to scale up health services in developing countries are falling short of the expectations of the Millennium Development Goals. Arguing that the dominant assumptions for scaling up are inadequate, we propose that interpreting change in health systems through the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS) provides better models of pathways for scaling up. Based on an understanding of CAS behaviours, we describe how phenomena such as path dependence, feedback loops, scale-free networks, emergent behaviour and phase transitions can uncover relevant lessons for the design and implementation of health policy and programmes in the context of scaling up health services. The implications include paying more attention to local context, incentives and institutions, as well as anticipating certain types of unintended consequences that can undermine scaling up efforts, and developing and implementing programmes that engage key actors through transparent use of data for ongoing problem-solving and adaptation. We propose that future efforts to scale up should adapt and apply the models and methodologies which have been used in other fields that study CAS, yet are underused in public health. This can help policy makers, planners, implementers and researchers to explore different and innovative approaches for reaching populations in need with effective, equitable and efficient health services. The old assumptions have led to disappointed expectations about how to scale up health services, and offer little insight on how to scale up effective interventions in the future. The alternative perspectives offered by CAS may better reflect the complex and changing nature of health systems, and create new opportunities for understanding and scaling up health services.

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.

2014-08-01

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM atmore » the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.« less

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Calvin, K.

2014-08-01

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community-integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model - namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) - is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5° × 0.5° resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095, particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase, driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

Development of mpi_EPIC model for global agroecosystem modeling

DOE PAGES

Kang, Shujiang; Wang, Dali; Jeff A. Nichols; ...

2014-12-31

Models that address policy-maker concerns about multi-scale effects of food and bioenergy production systems are computationally demanding. We integrated the message passing interface algorithm into the process-based EPIC model to accelerate computation of ecosystem effects. Simulation performance was further enhanced by applying the Vampir framework. When this enhanced mpi_EPIC model was tested, total execution time for a global 30-year simulation of a switchgrass cropping system was shortened to less than 0.5 hours on a supercomputer. The results illustrate that mpi_EPIC using parallel design can balance simulation workloads and facilitate large-scale, high-resolution analysis of agricultural production systems, management alternatives and environmentalmore » effects.« less

Policy Analysis: Valuation of Ecosystem Services in the Southern Appalachian Mountains.

PubMed

Banzhaf, H Spencer; Burtraw, Dallas; Criscimagna, Susie Chung; Cosby, Bernard J; Evans, David A; Krupnick, Alan J; Siikamäki, Juha V

2016-03-15

This study estimates the economic value of an increase in ecosystem services attributable to the reduced acidification expected from more stringent air pollution policy. By integrating a detailed biogeochemical model that projects future ecological recovery with economic methods that measure preferences for specific ecological improvements, we estimate the economic value of ecological benefits from new air pollution policies in the Southern Appalachian ecosystem. Our results indicate that these policies generate aggregate benefits of about $3.7 billion, or about $16 per year per household in the region. The study provides currently missing information about the ecological benefits from air pollution policies that is needed to evaluate such policies comprehensively. More broadly, the study also illustrates how integrated biogeochemical and economic assessments of multidimensional ecosystems can evaluate the relative benefits of different policy options that vary by scale and across ecosystem attributes.

Conception et validation d'un modele d'analyse et de suivi pour une politique energetique durable et acceptable de l'energie eolienne: Une etude comparative France-Quebec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feurtey, Evariste

In this research, we built a conceptual model of a sustainable and acceptable wind power policy that we tried to validate through the case study of France and Quebec in the wind energy sector. Our qualitative and comparative approach helps us to illustrate the interaction of institutional variables studied, including the national context of emergence, the balance of power between pressure groups, the supranational and exogenous influences, level of political commitment, policy and regulatory instruments, social acceptance and energy policy mechanisms. The research confirms that the neo-corporatism is present in France as in Quebec. With the unfavorable energy context (low cost of electricity tariff, lack of electricity demand, and an already low zero carbon electric mix), it is an important factor explaining : 1) the 20 years delay accumulated by France and Quebec in the development of wind projects or industrial sector; 2) the 10% limited penetration scale given to wind energy. We also demonstrate that the political commitment to develop wind energy fluctuates with the government majority, the energy context or the influence of pressure groups. This manifests itself in a lack of continuity of policies and tariff instruments used. In both national case studies, the results also show that balanced policies and regulations ensure sustainable development of wind energy only if they allow a sufficient market size. The search results also illustrates that the conceptual division made between acceptance of wind sector, acceptance of ownership, local acceptance is very instructive. Social controversies, though multifactorial, are connected to both a critique of the development model too industrial and private, territorial dilemmas (closed environment), energy context (electric surplus in Quebec), or related to strategic planning system and centralized decision. An important issue for a more acceptable wind policy in the future will come to a greater plurality of ownership, variety of wind projects scale, diversity of financial support mechanisms. This transformation to a more territorial policy that require renewables also calls for decentralization and ecological modernization of institutions. Sustainable and acceptable energy policy requires obtaining a stabilized consensus on the long-term energy mix, which should be done by a comprehensive energy and public debate upstream the development of energy policy. Keywords: energy policy, social acceptance, wind energy, environmental assessment, components, interactions.

Forecasting landscape-scale, cumulative effects of forest management on vegetation and wildlife habitat: a case study of issues, limitations, and opportunities

Treesearch

Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Zhaofei F. Fan

2008-01-01

Forest landscape disturbance and succession models have become practical tools for large-scale, long-term analyses of the cumulative effects of forest management on real landscapes. They can provide essential information in a spatial context to address management and policy issues related to forest planning, wildlife habitat quality, timber harvesting, fire effects,...

A modelling approach for the assessment of the effects of Common Agricultural Policy measures on farmland biodiversity in the EU27.

PubMed

Overmars, Koen P; Helming, John; van Zeijts, Henk; Jansson, Torbjörn; Terluin, Ida

2013-09-15

In this paper we describe a methodology to model the impacts of policy measures within the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on farm production, income and prices, and on farmland biodiversity. Two stylised scenarios are used to illustrate how the method works. The effects of CAP measures, such as subsidies and regulations, are calculated and translated into changes in land use and land-use intensity. These factors are then used to model biodiversity with a species-based indicator on a 1 km scale in the EU27. The Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact Modelling System (CAPRI) is used to conduct the economic analysis and Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) is used to model land use changes. An indicator that expresses the relative species richness was used as the indicator for biodiversity in agricultural areas. The methodology is illustrated with a baseline scenario and two scenarios that include a specific policy. The strength of the methodology is that impacts of economic policy instruments can be linked to changes in agricultural production, prices and incomes, on the one hand, and to biodiversity effects, on the other - with land use and land-use intensity as the connecting drivers. The method provides an overall assessment, but for detailed impact assessment at landscape, farm or field level, additional analysis would be required. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intricacies in Drought Management Policy, Crisis Response and Preparedness: Linking the Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakash, P.; Harter, T.

2016-12-01

Drought per se is often misrepresented as mere water scarcity issue overlooking the complexities associated with it. In many parts of the world, the drought management policy prescriptions are often driven by crisis management rather than preventive approach. As a result, the economic, social and environmental impact of droughts continues to increase even to this day. To overcome this calamity, nations should encourage coordinated effort at both national and regional scale. An integrated approach on open data sharing, technical advancement in monitoring and robust early warning system to deliver timely information to decision makers, drought projection through high performance mathematical model and effective impact assessment procedure, implementing proactive risk management measures and preparedness with effective emergency response programs plans, will certainly increase the likelihood of drought coping capabilities. The present study focuses on knowledge augmentation for better policy framework and action for all countries that suffer from droughts. A comprehensive database at the global scale has been compiled giving information on existing drought management policies/practices and the major challenges faced by major drought distressed countries. Plausible solution is suggested towards integrating the water management policy, response and preparedness, that has been garnered through the lessons from success/failure stories of nations with effective drought management policies

Three Collaborative Models for Scaling Up Evidence-Based Practices

PubMed Central

Roberts, Rosemarie; Jones, Helen; Marsenich, Lynne; Sosna, Todd; Price, Joseph M.

2015-01-01

The current paper describes three models of research-practice collaboration to scale-up evidence-based practices (EBP): (1) the Rolling Cohort model in England, (2) the Cascading Dissemination model in San Diego County, and (3) the Community Development Team model in 53 California and Ohio counties. Multidimensional Treatment Foster Care (MTFC) and KEEP are the focal evidence-based practices that are designed to improve outcomes for children and families in the child welfare, juvenile justice, and mental health systems. The three scale-up models each originated from collaboration between community partners and researchers with the shared goal of wide-spread implementation and sustainability of MTFC/KEEP. The three models were implemented in a variety of contexts; Rolling Cohort was implemented nationally, Cascading Dissemination was implemented within one county, and Community Development Team was targeted at the state level. The current paper presents an overview of the development of each model, the policy frameworks in which they are embedded, system challenges encountered during scale-up, and lessons learned. Common elements of successful scale-up efforts, barriers to success, factors relating to enduring practice relationships, and future research directions are discussed. PMID:21484449

'Scaling-up is a craft not a science': Catalysing scale-up of health innovations in Ethiopia, India and Nigeria.

PubMed

Spicer, Neil; Bhattacharya, Dipankar; Dimka, Ritgak; Fanta, Feleke; Mangham-Jefferies, Lindsay; Schellenberg, Joanna; Tamire-Woldemariam, Addis; Walt, Gill; Wickremasinghe, Deepthi

2014-11-01

Donors and other development partners commonly introduce innovative practices and technologies to improve health in low and middle income countries. Yet many innovations that are effective in improving health and survival are slow to be translated into policy and implemented at scale. Understanding the factors influencing scale-up is important. We conducted a qualitative study involving 150 semi-structured interviews with government, development partners, civil society organisations and externally funded implementers, professional associations and academic institutions in 2012/13 to explore scale-up of innovative interventions targeting mothers and newborns in Ethiopia, the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh and the six states of northeast Nigeria, which are settings with high burdens of maternal and neonatal mortality. Interviews were analysed using a common analytic framework developed for cross-country comparison and themes were coded using Nvivo. We found that programme implementers across the three settings require multiple steps to catalyse scale-up. Advocating for government to adopt and finance health innovations requires: designing scalable innovations; embedding scale-up in programme design and allocating time and resources; building implementer capacity to catalyse scale-up; adopting effective approaches to advocacy; presenting strong evidence to support government decision making; involving government in programme design; invoking policy champions and networks; strengthening harmonisation among external programmes; aligning innovations with health systems and priorities. Other steps include: supporting government to develop policies and programmes and strengthening health systems and staff; promoting community uptake by involving media, community leaders, mobilisation teams and role models. We conclude that scale-up has no magic bullet solution - implementers must embrace multiple activities, and require substantial support from donors and governments in doing so. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A multi-scale health impact assessment of air pollution over the 21st century.

PubMed

Likhvar, Victoria N; Pascal, Mathilde; Markakis, Konstantinos; Colette, Augustin; Hauglustaine, Didier; Valari, Myrto; Klimont, Zbigniew; Medina, Sylvia; Kinney, Patrick

2015-05-01

Ozone and PM₂.₅ are current risk factors for premature death all over the globe. In coming decades, substantial improvements in public health may be achieved by reducing air pollution. To better understand the potential of emissions policies, studies are needed that assess possible future health impacts under alternative assumptions about future emissions and climate across multiple spatial scales. We used consistent climate-air-quality-health modeling framework across three geographical scales (World, Europe and Ile-de-France) to assess future (2030-2050) health impacts of ozone and PM₂.₅ under two emissions scenarios (Current Legislation Emissions, CLE, and Maximum Feasible Reductions, MFR). Consistently across the scales, we found more reductions in deaths under MFR scenario compared to CLE. 1.5 [95% CI: 0.4, 2.4] million CV deaths could be delayed each year in 2030 compared to 2010 under MFR scenario, 84% of which would occur in Asia, especially in China. In Europe, the benefits under MFR scenario (219000 CV deaths) are noticeably larger than those under CLE (109,000 CV deaths). In Ile-de-France, under MFR more than 2830 annual CV deaths associated with PM₂.₅ changes could be delayed in 2050 compared to 2010. In Paris, ozone-related respiratory mortality should increase under both scenarios. Multi-scale HIAs can illustrate the difference in direct consequences of costly mitigation policies and provide results that may help decision-makers choose between different policy alternatives at different scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large-scale flow experiments for managing river systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher P.; Olden, Julian D.; Lytle, David A.; Melis, Theodore S.; Schmidt, John C.; Bray, Erin N.; Freeman, Mary C.; Gido, Keith B.; Hemphill, Nina P.; Kennard, Mark J.; McMullen, Laura E.; Mims, Meryl C.; Pyron, Mark; Robinson, Christopher T.; Williams, John G.

2011-01-01

Experimental manipulations of streamflow have been used globally in recent decades to mitigate the impacts of dam operations on river systems. Rivers are challenging subjects for experimentation, because they are open systems that cannot be isolated from their social context. We identify principles to address the challenges of conducting effective large-scale flow experiments. Flow experiments have both scientific and social value when they help to resolve specific questions about the ecological action of flow with a clear nexus to water policies and decisions. Water managers must integrate new information into operating policies for large-scale experiments to be effective. Modeling and monitoring can be integrated with experiments to analyze long-term ecological responses. Experimental design should include spatially extensive observations and well-defined, repeated treatments. Large-scale flow manipulations are only a part of dam operations that affect river systems. Scientists can ensure that experimental manipulations continue to be a valuable approach for the scientifically based management of river systems.

Are social security policies for Chinese landless farmers really effective on health in the process of Chinese rapid urbanization? a study on the effect of social security policies for Chinese landless farmers on their health-related quality of life

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The continuing urbanization in China has resulted in a loss of land and rights among farmers. The social security of landless farmers has attracted considerable research attention. However, only few studies measure the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of landless farmers by employing scientific standardized scales. By using five-dimensional European quality of life (EQ-5D) scales, this study measures the HRQOL of landless farmers from a new perspective and examines how the social security policies affect their HRQOL. Methods This study is based on a 2013 household survey that has been conducted among 1,500 landless famers who are residing in six resettlement areas in three cities within the Yangtze River Delta region, namely, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Yangzhou. This study adopts EQ-5D scales to measure the HRQOL of these farmers. More than 50% of the respondents are in poor or non-serious health conditions, and over 50% are not satisfied with their current social security policies. The health conditions and social security policies are analyzed by multinomial regression analysis and the relationship between these two factors are analyzed via structural equation modeling (SEM). Results First, the descriptive statistical analysis shows that more than 50% of the respondents are in poor or non-serious health conditions, and that the largest proportion of these farmers are suffering from anxiety or depression, which is the most serious of the five dimensions. Second, multinomial regression analysis shows that the satisfaction of landless farmers with their social security policies improves their living conditions, particularly in their capacity for self-care, in their ability to perform daily activities, and in the reduction of pain, anxiety, and depression. Third, SEM model analysis shows that the satisfaction of landless farmers with their social security policies positively influences their HRQOL. Among the five dimensions of EQ-5D, daily activities produce the greatest influence on the HRQOL of landless farmers. As regards social security policies, the land acquisition compensation policy and the employment security policy produce the greatest and weakest influences on the HRQOL of landless farmers, respectively. Conclusions The rapid urbanization in China has deprived many farmers of their lands and of the benefits of urbanization. These farmers are often in a disadvantaged position in the land acquisition process. Statistic analysis in this paper shows that the satisfaction of landless farmers with their social security policies positively influences their HRQOL. The implementation and improvement of social security policies is very important for the long-term and sustainable development of these landless farmers. PMID:24433258

Are social security policies for Chinese landless farmers really effective on health in the process of Chinese rapid urbanization? A study on the effect of social security policies for Chinese landless farmers on their health-related quality of life.

PubMed

Liang, Ying; Lu, Wanyi; Wu, Wei

2014-01-15

The continuing urbanization in China has resulted in a loss of land and rights among farmers. The social security of landless farmers has attracted considerable research attention. However, only few studies measure the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of landless farmers by employing scientific standardized scales. By using five-dimensional European quality of life (EQ-5D) scales, this study measures the HRQOL of landless farmers from a new perspective and examines how the social security policies affect their HRQOL. This study is based on a 2013 household survey that has been conducted among 1,500 landless famers who are residing in six resettlement areas in three cities within the Yangtze River Delta region, namely, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Yangzhou. This study adopts EQ-5D scales to measure the HRQOL of these farmers. More than 50% of the respondents are in poor or non-serious health conditions, and over 50% are not satisfied with their current social security policies. The health conditions and social security policies are analyzed by multinomial regression analysis and the relationship between these two factors are analyzed via structural equation modeling (SEM). First, the descriptive statistical analysis shows that more than 50% of the respondents are in poor or non-serious health conditions, and that the largest proportion of these farmers are suffering from anxiety or depression, which is the most serious of the five dimensions. Second, multinomial regression analysis shows that the satisfaction of landless farmers with their social security policies improves their living conditions, particularly in their capacity for self-care, in their ability to perform daily activities, and in the reduction of pain, anxiety, and depression. Third, SEM model analysis shows that the satisfaction of landless farmers with their social security policies positively influences their HRQOL. Among the five dimensions of EQ-5D, daily activities produce the greatest influence on the HRQOL of landless farmers. As regards social security policies, the land acquisition compensation policy and the employment security policy produce the greatest and weakest influences on the HRQOL of landless farmers, respectively. The rapid urbanization in China has deprived many farmers of their lands and of the benefits of urbanization. These farmers are often in a disadvantaged position in the land acquisition process. Statistic analysis in this paper shows that the satisfaction of landless farmers with their social security policies positively influences their HRQOL. The implementation and improvement of social security policies is very important for the long-term and sustainable development of these landless farmers.

Implementing participatory decision making in forest planning.

PubMed

Ananda, Jayanath

2007-04-01

Forest policy decisions are often a source of debate, conflict, and tension in many countries. The debate over forest land-use decisions often hinges on disagreements about societal values related to forest resource use. Disagreements on social value positions are fought out repeatedly at local, regional, national, and international levels at an enormous social cost. Forest policy problems have some inherent characteristics that make them more difficult to deal with. On the one hand, forest policy decisions involve uncertainty, long time scales, and complex natural systems and processes. On the other hand, such decisions encompass social, political, and cultural systems that are evolving in response to forces such as globalization. Until recently, forest policy was heavily influenced by the scientific community and various economic models of optimal resource use. However, growing environmental awareness and acceptance of participatory democracy models in policy formulation have forced the public authorities to introduce new participatory mechanisms to manage forest resources. Most often, the efforts to include the public in policy formulation can be described using the lower rungs of Arnstein's public participation typology. This paper presents an approach that incorporates stakeholder preferences into forest land-use policy using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). An illustrative case of regional forest-policy formulation in Australia is used to demonstrate the approach. It is contended that applying the AHP in the policy process could considerably enhance the transparency of participatory process and public acceptance of policy decisions.

Scaling-up impact in perinatology through systems science: Bridging the collaboration and translational divides in cross-disciplinary research and public policy.

PubMed

Munar, Wolfgang; Hovmand, Peter S; Fleming, Carrie; Darmstadt, Gary L

2015-08-01

Despite progress over the past decade in reducing the global burden of newborn deaths, gaps in the knowledge base persist, and means of translating empirical findings into effective policies and programs that deliver life-saving interventions remain poorly understood. Articles in this issue highlight the relevance of transdisciplinary research in perinatology and calls for increased efforts to translate research into public policy and to integrate interventions into existing primary care delivery systems. Given the complexity and multi-causality of many of the remaining challenges in newborn health, and the effects that social and economic factors have over many newborn conditions, it has further been proposed that integrated, multi-sector public policies are also required. In this article, we discuss the application of systems science methods to advance transdisciplinary research and public policy-making in perinatology. Such approaches to research and public policy have been used to address various global challenges but have rarely been implemented in developing country settings. We propose that they hold great promise to improve not only our understanding of complex perinatology problems but can also help translate research-based insights into effective, multi-pronged solutions that deliver positive, intended effects. Examples of successful transdisciplinary science exist, but successes and failures are context specific, and there are no universal blueprints or formulae to reproduce what works in a specific context into different social system settings. Group model building is a tool, based in the field of System Dynamics, that we have used to facilitate transdisciplinary research and, to a lesser extent, policy formulation in a systematic and replicable way. In this article, we describe how group model building can be used and argue for scaling its use to further the translation of empirical evidence and insights into policy and action that increase maternal and neonatal survival and well-being. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing a public health policy-research nexus: an evaluation of Nurse Practitioner models in aged care.

PubMed

Prosser, Brenton; Clark, Shannon; Davey, Rachel; Parker, Rhian

2013-10-01

A frustration often expressed by researchers and policy-makers in public health is an apparent mismatch between respective priorities and expectations for research. Academics bemoan an oversimplification of their work, a reticence for independent critique and the constant pressure to pursue evaluation funding. Meanwhile, policy-makers look for research reports written in plain language with clear application, which are attuned to current policy settings and produced quickly. In a context where there are calls in western nations for evidence based policy with stronger links to academic research, such a mismatch can present significant challenges to policy program evaluation. The purpose of this paper is to present one attempt to overcome these challenges. Specifically, the paper describes the development of a conceptual framework for a large-scale, multifaceted evaluation of an Australian Government health initiative to expand Nurse Practitioner models of practice in aged care service delivery. In doing so, the paper provides a brief review of key points for the facilitation of a strong research-policy nexus in public health evaluations, as well as describes how this particular evaluation embodies these key points. As such, the paper presents an evaluation approach which may be adopted and adapted by others undertaking public health policy program evaluations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Managing fleet capacity effectively under second-hand market redistribution.

PubMed

Quillérou, Emmanuelle; Roudaut, Nolwenn; Guyader, Olivier

2013-09-01

Fishing capacity management policies have been traditionally implemented at national level with national targets for capacity reduction. More recently, capacity management policies have increasingly targeted specific fisheries. French fisheries spatially vary along the French coastline and are associated to specific regions. Capacity management policies, however, ignore the capital mobility associated with second-hand vessel trade between regions. This is not an issue for national policies but could limit the effectiveness of regional capacity management policies. A gravity model and a random-effect Poisson regression model are used to analyze the determinants and spatial extent of the second-hand market in France. This study is based on panel data from the French Atlantic Ocean between 1992 and 2009. The trade flows between trading partners is found to increase with their sizes and to be spatially concentrated. Despite the low trade flows between regions, a net impact analysis shows that fishing capacity is redistributed by the second-hand market to regions on the Channel and Aquitaine from central regions. National capacity management policies (constructions/destructions) have induced a net decrease in regional fleet capacity with varying magnitude across regions. Unless there is a change of policy instruments or their scale of implementation, the operation of the second-hand market decreases the effectiveness of regional capacity management policies in regions on the Channel and Aquitaine.

Social networking policies in nursing education.

PubMed

Frazier, Blake; Culley, Joan M; Hein, Laura C; Williams, Amber; Tavakoli, Abbas S

2014-03-01

Social networking use has increased exponentially in the past few years. A literature review related to social networking and nursing revealed a research gap between nursing practice and education. Although there was information available on the appropriate use of social networking sites, there was limited research on the use of social networking policies within nursing education. The purpose of this study was to identify current use of social media by faculty and students and a need for policies within nursing education at one institution. A survey was developed and administered to nursing students (n = 273) and nursing faculty (n = 33). Inferential statistics included χ², Fisher exact test, t test, and General Linear Model. Cronbach's α was used to assess internal consistency of social media scales. The χ² result indicates that there were associations with the group and several social media items. t Test results indicate significant differences between student and faculty for average of policies are good (P = .0127), policies and discipline (P = .0315), and policy at the study school (P = .0013). General Linear Model analyses revealed significant differences for "friend" a patient with a bond, unprofessional posts, policy, and nursing with class level. Results showed that students and faculty supported the development of a social networking policy.

Comparison of WEPP and APEX runoff and erosion prediction at field scale in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) and the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) are process-based models that can predict spatial and temporal distributions of erosion for hillslopes and watersheds. This study applies the WEPP model to predict runoff and erosion for a 35-ha fie...

Evidence-Based Reform: Enhancing Language and Literacy in Early Childhood Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Slavin, Robert E.; Chambers, Bette

2017-01-01

Evidence-based reform is transforming education at all levels, both in providing effective models for use in schools and in linking policy to effective practice on a broad scale. As early education moves from a concern with effects of preschool versus no preschool to focus on creating and evaluating effective preschool models capable of improving…

Scalable Joint Models for Reliable Uncertainty-Aware Event Prediction.

PubMed

Soleimani, Hossein; Hensman, James; Saria, Suchi

2017-08-21

Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty due to missingness. Alternatively, state-of-the-art joint modeling techniques can be used for jointly modeling the longitudinal and event data and compute event probabilities conditioned on the longitudinal observations. These approaches, however, make strong parametric assumptions and do not easily scale to multivariate signals with many observations. Our proposed approach consists of several key innovations. First, we develop a flexible and scalable joint model based upon sparse multiple-output Gaussian processes. Unlike state-of-the-art joint models, the proposed model can explain highly challenging structure including non-Gaussian noise while scaling to large data. Second, we derive an optimal policy for predicting events using the distribution of the event occurrence estimated by the joint model. The derived policy trades-off the cost of a delayed detection versus incorrect assessments and abstains from making decisions when the estimated event probability does not satisfy the derived confidence criteria. Experiments on a large dataset show that the proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in event prediction.

Nation-wide assessment of climate change impacts on crops in the Philippines and Peru as part of multi-disciplinary modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

2016-04-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to environmental changes, and climate change has been recognized as one of the most devastating factors. In many developing countries, however, few studies have focused on nation-wide assessment of crop yield and crop suitability in the future, and hence there is a large pressure on science to provide policy makers with solid predictions for major crops in the countries in support of climate risk management policies and programmes. FAO has developed the tool MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) where statistical climate downscaling is combined with crop yield projections under climate change scenarios. Three steps are required to get the results: 1. The historical meteorological data such as temperature and precipitation for about 30 years were collected, and future climates were statistically downscaled to the local scale, 2. The historical crop yield data were collected and regression functions were made to estimate the yield by using observed climatic data and water balance during the growing period for each crop, and 3. The yield changes in the future were estimated by using the future climate data, produced by the first step, as an input to the yield regression functions. The yield was first simulated at sub-national scale and aggregated to national scale, which is intended to provide national policies with adaptation options. The methodology considers future changes in characteristics of extreme weather events as the climate projections are on daily scale while crop simulations are on 10-daily scale. Yields were simulated with two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs) for three GCMs per crop to account for uncertainties in projections. The crop assessment constitutes a larger multi-disciplinary assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and vulnerability of livelihoods in terms of food security (e.g. water resources, agriculture market, household-level food security from socio-economic perspective). In our presentation we will show the cases of Peru and the Philippines, and discuss the implications for agriculture policies and risk management.

Integrating research on ecohydrology and land use change with land use management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bass, Brad; Byers, Ralph E.; Lister, Nina-Marie

1998-10-01

One objective of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme is to provide a scientific basis for sustainable development policies. Land use change and ecohydrology are important components of this scientific basis, but predicting change is difficult because of the scale and complexity of the interactions between non-linear ecohydrological and socio-economic processes at different spatial and temporal scales. A systems framework, the Ecosystem Approach, has been developed to conceptualize these interactions for the purpose of providing information for sustainable development policy. The Ecosystem Approach combines the dynamics of the Holling figure-eight model - a conceptual model of dynamics that stresses discontinuous change and destruction as an internal property of the system - and the properties of self-organizing systems with the socio political aspects of decision making.The Ecosystem Approach highlights the problems of managing change in complex systems when that change may involve unpredictable shifts to a different attractor. Although there are methods available to detect the occurrence of such shifts, both detection and modelling are complicated by the presence of semi-stable attractors. When a model or an ecosystem is on a semi-stable attractor, it may appear to remain stable for an extended period prior to changing as a consequence of inherent instabilities. When the shift to a new attractor occurs, it is quite sudden and unpredictable. A technical discussion on prediction under conditions of semi-stability and chaos is included because it enhances our understanding of the role of surprise in ecosystems, as well as the utility of simulation models.The principles of the Ecosystem Approach are derived from the theoretical discussion and an example of a land use policy in the Huron Natural Area in south-western Ontario. These principles provide a clear role for scientific research, and particularly simulation modelling, within the larger context of policy and land use management.

Urban Form Energy Use and Emissions in China: Preliminary Findings and Model Proof of Concept

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aden, Nathaniel; Qin, Yining; Fridley, David

Urbanization is reshaping China's economy, society, and energy system. Between 1990 and 2008 China added more than 300 million new urban residents, bringing the total urbanization rate to 46%. The ongoing population shift is spurring energy demand for new construction, as well as additional residential use with the replacement of rural biomass by urban commercial energy services. This project developed a modeling tool to quantify the full energy consequences of a particular form of urban residential development in order to identify energy- and carbon-efficient modes of neighborhood-level development and help mitigate resource and environmental implications of swelling cities. LBNL developedmore » an integrated modeling tool that combines process-based lifecycle assessment with agent-based building operational energy use, personal transport, and consumption modeling. The lifecycle assessment approach was used to quantify energy and carbon emissions embodied in building materials production, construction, maintenance, and demolition. To provide more comprehensive analysis, LBNL developed an agent-based model as described below. The model was applied to LuJing, a residential development in Jinan, Shandong Province, to provide a case study and model proof of concept. This study produced results data that are unique by virtue of their scale, scope and type. Whereas most existing literature focuses on building-, city-, or national-level analysis, this study covers multi-building neighborhood-scale development. Likewise, while most existing studies focus exclusively on building operational energy use, this study also includes embodied energy related to personal consumption and buildings. Within the boundaries of this analysis, food is the single largest category of the building energy footprint, accounting for 23% of the total. On a policy level, the LCA approach can be useful for quantifying the energy and environmental benefits of longer average building lifespans. In addition to prospective analysis for standards and certification, urban form modeling can also be useful in calculating or verifying ex post facto, bottom-up carbon emissions inventories. Emissions inventories provide a benchmark for evaluating future outcomes and scenarios as well as an empirical basis for valuing low-carbon technologies. By highlighting the embodied energy and emissions of building materials, the LCA approach can also be used to identify the most intensive aspects of industrial production and the supply chain. The agent based modeling aspect of the model can be useful for understanding how policy incentives can impact individual behavior and the aggregate effects thereof. The most useful elaboration of the urban form assessment model would be to further generalize it for comparative analysis. Scenario analysis could be used for benchmarking and identification of policy priorities. If the model is to be used for inventories, it is important to disaggregate the energy use data for more accurate emissions modeling. Depending on the policy integration of the model, it may be useful to incorporate occupancy data for per-capita results. On the question of density and efficiency, it may also be useful to integrate a more explicit spatial scaling mechanism for modeling neighborhood and city-level energy use and emissions, i.e. to account for scaling effects in public infrastructure and transportation.« less

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: A Framework Analysis of Policy and Program Implementation in Eastern and Southern Africa

PubMed Central

Dickson, Kim E.; Tran, Nhan T.; Samuelson, Julia L.; Njeuhmeli, Emmanuel; Cherutich, Peter; Dick, Bruce; Farley, Tim; Ryan, Caroline; Hankins, Catherine A.

2011-01-01

Background Following confirmation of the effectiveness of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention, the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS issued recommendations in 2007. Less than 5 y later, priority countries are at different stages of program scale-up. This paper analyzes the progress towards the scale-up of VMMC programs. It analyzes the adoption of VMMC as an additional HIV prevention strategy and explores the factors may have expedited or hindered the adoption of policies and initial program implementation in priority countries to date. Methods and Findings VMMCs performed in priority countries between 2008 and 2010 were recorded and used to classify countries into five adopter categories according to the Diffusion of Innovations framework. The main predictors of VMMC program adoption were determined and factors influencing subsequent scale-up explored. By the end of 2010, over 550,000 VMMCs had been performed, representing approximately 3% of the target coverage level in priority countries. The “early adopter” countries developed national VMMC policies and initiated VMMC program implementation soon after the release of the WHO recommendations. However, based on modeling using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT), only Kenya appears to be on track towards achievement of the DMPPT-estimated 80% coverage goal by 2015, having already achieved 61.5% of the DMPPT target. None of the other countries appear to be on track to achieve their targets. Potential predicators of early adoption of male circumcision programs include having a VMMC focal person, establishing a national policy, having an operational strategy, and the establishment of a pilot program. Conclusions Early adoption of VMMC policies did not necessarily result in rapid program scale-up. A key lesson is the importance of not only being ready to adopt a new intervention but also ensuring that factors critical to supporting and accelerating scale-up are incorporated into the program. The most successful program had country ownership and sustained leadership to translate research into a national policy and program. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:22140368

Teacher Beliefs, Teacher Concerns, and School Leadership Support as Influences on School Readiness for Implementing a Research-Based Reform Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carhart, Elizabeth Hoag

2013-01-01

Federal policy makers and school leaders increasingly recognize middle school math as a turning point in students' academic success. An i3 scale-up grant allowed grant partners to conduct a large-scale implementation of PowerTeaching (PT), a research-based reform to increase student math achievement. In a mixed-methods study during the pilot phase…

Scaling Up of Breastfeeding Promotion Programs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: the “Breastfeeding Gear” Model12

PubMed Central

Pérez-Escamilla, Rafael; Curry, Leslie; Minhas, Dilpreet; Taylor, Lauren; Bradley, Elizabeth

2012-01-01

Breastfeeding (BF) promotion is one of the most cost-effective interventions to advance mother–child health. Evidence-based frameworks and models to promote the effective scale up and sustainability of BF programs are still lacking. A systematic review of peer-reviewed and gray literature reports was conducted to identify key barriers and facilitators for scale up of BF programs in low- and middle-income countries. The review identified BF programs located in 28 countries in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia. Study designs included case studies, qualitative studies, and observational quantitative studies. Only 1 randomized, controlled trial was identified. A total of 22 enabling factors and 15 barriers were mapped into a scale-up framework termed “AIDED” that was used to build the parsimonious breastfeeding gear model (BFGM). Analogous to a well-oiled engine, the BFGM indicates the need for several key “gears” to be working in synchrony and coordination. Evidence-based advocacy is needed to generate the necessary political will to enact legislation and policies to protect, promote, and support BF at the hospital and community levels. This political-policy axis in turn drives the resources needed to support workforce development, program delivery, and promotion. Research and evaluation are needed to sustain the decentralized program coordination “gear” required for goal setting and system feedback. The BFGM helps explain the different levels of performance in national BF outcomes in Mexico and Brazil. Empirical research is recommended to further test the usefulness of the AIDED framework and BFGM for global scaling up of BF programs. PMID:23153733

Conservation physiology across scales: insights from the marine realm

PubMed Central

Cooke, Steven J.; Killen, Shaun S.; Metcalfe, Julian D.; McKenzie, David J.; Mouillot, David; Jørgensen, Christian; Peck, Myron A.

2014-01-01

As the field of conservation physiology develops and becomes increasingly integrated with ecology and conservation science, the fundamental concept of scale is being recognized as important, particularly for ensuring that physiological knowledge is contextualized in a manner most relevant to policy makers, conservation practitioners and stakeholders. Failure to consider the importance of scale in conservation physiology—both the challenges and the opportunities that it creates—will impede the ability of this discipline to generate the scientific understanding needed to contribute to meaningful conservation outcomes. Here, we have focused on five aspects of scale: biological, spatial, temporal, allometric and phylogenetic. We also considered the scale of policy and policy application relevant to those five types of scale as well as the merits of upscaling and downscaling to explore and address conservation problems. Although relevant to all systems (e.g. freshwater, terrestrial) we have used examples from the marine realm, with a particular emphasis on fishes, given the fact that there is existing discourse regarding scale and its relevance for marine conservation and management. Our synthesis revealed that all five aspects of scale are relevant to conservation physiology, with many aspects inherently linked. It is apparent that there are both opportunities and challenges afforded by working across scales but, to understand mechanisms underlying conservation problems, it is essential to consider scale of all sorts and to work across scales to the greatest extent possible. Moreover, given that the scales in biological processes will often not match policy and management scales, conservation physiology needs to show how it is relevant to aspects at different policy/management scales, change the scales at which policy/management intervention is applied or be prepared to be ignored. PMID:27293645

Optimization strategies for sediment reduction practices on roads in steep, forested terrain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madej, Mary Ann; Eschenbach, E.A.; Diaz, C.; Teasley, R.; Baker, K.

2006-01-01

Many forested steeplands in the western United States display a legacy of disturbances due to timber harvest, mining or wildfires, for example. Such disturbances have caused accelerated hillslope erosion, leading to increased sedimentation in fish-bearing streams. Several restoration techniques have been implemented to address these problems in mountain catchments, many of which involve the removal of abandoned roads and re-establishing drainage networks across road prisms. With limited restoration funds to be applied across large catchments, land managers are faced with deciding which areas and problems should be treated first, and by which technique, in order to design the most effective and cost-effective sediment reduction strategy. Currently most restoration is conducted on a site-specific scale according to uniform treatment policies. To create catchment-scale policies for restoration, we developed two optimization models - dynamic programming and genetic algorithms - to determine the most cost-effective treatment level for roads and stream crossings in a pilot study basin with approximately 700 road segments and crossings. These models considered the trade-offs between the cost and effectiveness of different restoration strategies to minimize the predicted erosion from all forest roads within a catchment, while meeting a specified budget constraint. The optimal sediment reduction strategies developed by these models performed much better than two strategies of uniform erosion control which are commonly applied to road erosion problems by land managers, with sediment savings increased by an additional 48 to 80 per cent. These optimization models can be used to formulate the most cost-effective restoration policy for sediment reduction on a catchment scale. Thus, cost savings can be applied to further restoration work within the catchment. Nevertheless, the models are based on erosion rates measured on past restoration sites, and need to be up-dated as additional monitoring studies evaluate long-term basin response to erosion control treatments. Copyright ?? 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Transportation network policy modeling for congestion and pollution control: A variational inequality approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramanujam, Padma

1999-08-01

Public concern over the state of the environment has grown over the past decade. All indications are that this concern will continue to influence policy making into the foreseeable future. Road transport is seen as the major contributor to environmental degradation. Transportation planners around the world face the question: cleaner air and/or faster commutes? While individual vehicles can be made more environmentally friendly, the sheer scale of growth in world-wide vehicle numbers is projected to cause significant environmental degradation in the longer run, and in the absence of newer and stricter polices. It is a challenge for governments to find policies that ensure congestion-free metropolitan areas while guaranteeing both critical environmental quality levels and a sufficient infrastructure access to all groups involved. The objective of the dissertation is to provide a mathematical framework to study transportation policy models for the purpose of controlling congestion and pollution. Towards this objective. a series of transportation policy models are developed to study travel behavior and to quantity the reductions in congestion and automobile emissions. The dissertation begins with a brief historical overview of some of the pioneering works in urban transportation economics and later presents the theoretical foundation for the transportation policy models developed. The dissertation introduces single modal and multimodal transportation network policy models that accomplish road pricing with the imposition of goal targets on link loads. as well as, integrated traffic equilibrium models with marketable mobile emission permits. Furthermore, equilibrium conditions are derived for each model, and both qualitative analysis and computational procedures are studied. Finally, the dissertation concludes with a comparative study of the relationship between regulatory pricing models and marketable emission permit transportation models and a discussion on key factors that influence implementation of the proposed policy models. The framework of variational inequalities has been utilized in our dissertation, because it is ideal for equilibrium systems. With the addition of pricing policy interventions and the integration of marketable mobile emission permits, traffic equilibrium models become extremely complex. Consequently, the computation of the equilibrium is made more difficult. However, it is shown in the dissertation that in addition to pricing interventions and the integration of a marketable emission permit system that it is possible to incorporate multiple modes of transport and even to handle the issue of noncompliance, using the framework of variational inequalities.

Association between tobacco control policies and smoking behaviour among adolescents in 29 European countries.

PubMed

Hublet, Anne; Schmid, Holger; Clays, Els; Godeau, Emmanuelle; Gabhainn, Saoirse Nic; Joossens, Luk; Maes, Lea

2009-11-01

To investigate the associations between well-known, cost-effective tobacco control policies at country level and smoking prevalence among 15-year-old adolescents. Multi-level modelling based on the 2005-06 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Study, a cross-national study at individual level, and with country-level variables from the Tobacco Control Scale and published country-level databases. Twenty-nine European countries. A total of 25 599 boys and 26 509 girls. Self-reported regular smoking defined as at least weekly smoking, including daily smoking (dichotomous). Interaction effects between gender and smoking policies were identified, therefore boys and girls were analysed separately. Large cross-national differences in smoking prevalence were documented. Intraclass correlations (ICC) of 0.038 (boys) and 0.035 (girls) were found. In the final multi-level model for boys, besides the significance of the individual variables such as family affluence, country-level affluence and the legality of vending machines were related significantly to regular smoking [b(country affluence) = -0.010; b(partial restriction vending machines) = -0.366, P < 0.05]. Price policy was of borderline significance [b(price policy) = -0.026, P = 0.050]. All relationships were in the expected direction. The model fit is not as good for girls; only the legality of vending machines had a borderline significance in the final model [b(total ban vending machines) = -0.372, P = 0.06]. For boys, some of the currently recommended tobacco control policies may help to reduce smoking prevalence. However, the model is less suitable for girls, indicating gender differences in the potential efficacy of smoking policies. Future research should address this issue.

Optimal policy for mitigating emissions in the European transport sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, Sylvain; Piera, Patrizio; Sennai, Mesfun; Igor, Staritsky; Berien, Elbersen; Tijs, Lammens; Florian, Kraxner

2017-04-01

A geographic explicit techno-economic model, BeWhere (www.iiasa.ac.at/bewhere), has been developed at the European scale (Europe 28, the Balkans countries, Turkey, Moldavia and Ukraine) at a 40km grid size, to assess the potential of bioenergy from non-food feedstock. Based on the minimization of the supply chain from feedstock collection to the final energy product distribution, the model identifies the optimal bioenergy production plants in terms of spatial location, technology and capacity. The feedstock of interests are woody biomass (divided into eight types from conifers and non-conifers) and five different crop residuals. For each type of feedstock, one or multiple technologies can be applied for either heat, electricity or biofuel production. The model is run for different policy tools such as carbon cost, biofuel support, or subsidies, and the optimal mix of technologies and biomass needed is optimized to reach a production cost competitive against the actual reference system which is fossil fuel based. From this approach, the optimal mix of policy tools that can be applied country wide in Europe will be identified. The preliminary results show that high carbon tax and biofuel support contribute to the development of large scale biofuel production based on woody biomass plants mainly located in the northern part of Europe. Finally the highest emission reduction is reached with low biofuel support and high carbon tax evenly distributed in Europe.

The scaling of geographic ranges: implications for species distribution models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackulic, Charles B.; Ginsberg, Joshua R.

2016-01-01

There is a need for timely science to inform policy and management decisions; however, we must also strive to provide predictions that best reflect our understanding of ecological systems. Species distributions evolve through time and reflect responses to environmental conditions that are mediated through individual and population processes. Species distribution models that reflect this understanding, and explicitly model dynamics, are likely to give more accurate predictions.

Learning from the Past, Looking to the Future: Modeling Social Unrest in Karachi, Pakistan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olson, Jarrod; Kurzrok, Andrew J.; Hund, Gretchen

Social unrest represents a major challenge for policy makers around the globe, as it can quickly escalate from small scale disturbances to highly public protests, riots and even civil war. This research was motivated by a need to understand social instability and to unpack the comments made during a spring 2013 conference hosted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Center for Global Security and the U.S. Institute for Peace, where policymakers noted that models considering social instability are often not suitable for decision-making. This analysis shows that existing state level models of instability could be improved in spatial scale to themore » city level, even without significantly improved data access. Better data would make this analysis more complete and likely improve the quality of the model. Another challenge with incorporating modeling into decision-making is the need to understand uncertainty in a model. Policy makers are frequently tasked with making decisions without a clear outcome, so characterization of uncertainty is critical. This report describes the work and findings of the project. It took place in three phases: a literature review of social stability research, a “hindsight scan” that looked at historical data, and a “foresight scan” looking at future scenarios.« less

Models for mapping potential habitat at landscape scales: an example using northern spotted owls.

Treesearch

William C. McComb; Michael T. McGrath; Thomas A. Spies; David Vesely

2002-01-01

We are assessing the potential for current and alternative policies in the Oregon Coast Range to affect habitat capability for a suite of forest resources. We provide an example of a spatially explicit habitat capability model for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina)to illustrate the approach we are taking to assess potential changes...

Technical note: Coordination and harmonization of the multi-scale, multi-model activities HTAP2, AQMEII3, and MICS-Asia3: simulations, emission inventories, boundary conditions, and model output formats.

PubMed

Galmarini, Stefano; Koffi, Brigitte; Solazzo, Efisio; Keating, Terry; Hogrefe, Christian; Schulz, Michael; Benedictow, Anna; Griesfeller, Jan Jurgen; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Carmichael, Greg; Fu, Joshua; Dentener, Frank

2017-01-31

We present an overview of the coordinated global numerical modelling experiments performed during 2012-2016 by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP), the regional experiments by the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) over Europe and North America, and the Model Intercomparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia). To improve model estimates of the impacts of intercontinental transport of air pollution on climate, ecosystems, and human health and to answer a set of policy-relevant questions, these three initiatives performed emission perturbation modelling experiments consistent across the global, hemispheric, and continental/regional scales. In all three initiatives, model results are extensively compared against monitoring data for a range of variables (meteorological, trace gas concentrations, and aerosol mass and composition) from different measurement platforms (ground measurements, vertical profiles, airborne measurements) collected from a number of sources. Approximately 10 to 25 modelling groups have contributed to each initiative, and model results have been managed centrally through three data hubs maintained by each initiative. Given the organizational complexity of bringing together these three initiatives to address a common set of policy-relevant questions, this publication provides the motivation for the modelling activity, the rationale for specific choices made in the model experiments, and an overview of the organizational structures for both the modelling and the measurements used and analysed in a number of modelling studies in this special issue.

Technical note: Coordination and harmonization of the multi-scale, multi-model activities HTAP2, AQMEII3, and MICS-Asia3: simulations, emission inventories, boundary conditions, and model output formats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galmarini, Stefano; Koffi, Brigitte; Solazzo, Efisio; Keating, Terry; Hogrefe, Christian; Schulz, Michael; Benedictow, Anna; Griesfeller, Jan Jurgen; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Carmichael, Greg; Fu, Joshua; Dentener, Frank

2017-01-01

We present an overview of the coordinated global numerical modelling experiments performed during 2012-2016 by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP), the regional experiments by the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) over Europe and North America, and the Model Intercomparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia). To improve model estimates of the impacts of intercontinental transport of air pollution on climate, ecosystems, and human health and to answer a set of policy-relevant questions, these three initiatives performed emission perturbation modelling experiments consistent across the global, hemispheric, and continental/regional scales. In all three initiatives, model results are extensively compared against monitoring data for a range of variables (meteorological, trace gas concentrations, and aerosol mass and composition) from different measurement platforms (ground measurements, vertical profiles, airborne measurements) collected from a number of sources. Approximately 10 to 25 modelling groups have contributed to each initiative, and model results have been managed centrally through three data hubs maintained by each initiative. Given the organizational complexity of bringing together these three initiatives to address a common set of policy-relevant questions, this publication provides the motivation for the modelling activity, the rationale for specific choices made in the model experiments, and an overview of the organizational structures for both the modelling and the measurements used and analysed in a number of modelling studies in this special issue.

Technical note: Coordination and harmonization of the multi-scale, multi-model activities HTAP2, AQMEII3, and MICS-Asia3: simulations, emission inventories, boundary conditions, and model output formats

PubMed Central

Galmarini, Stefano; Koffi, Brigitte; Solazzo, Efisio; Keating, Terry; Hogrefe, Christian; Schulz, Michael; Benedictow, Anna; Griesfeller, Jan Jurgen; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Carmichael, Greg; Fu, Joshua; Dentener, Frank

2018-01-01

We present an overview of the coordinated global numerical modelling experiments performed during 2012–2016 by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP), the regional experiments by the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) over Europe and North America, and the Model Intercomparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia). To improve model estimates of the impacts of intercontinental transport of air pollution on climate, ecosystems, and human health and to answer a set of policy-relevant questions, these three initiatives performed emission perturbation modelling experiments consistent across the global, hemispheric, and continental/regional scales. In all three initiatives, model results are extensively compared against monitoring data for a range of variables (meteorological, trace gas concentrations, and aerosol mass and composition) from different measurement platforms (ground measurements, vertical profiles, airborne measurements) collected from a number of sources. Approximately 10 to 25 modelling groups have contributed to each initiative, and model results have been managed centrally through three data hubs maintained by each initiative. Given the organizational complexity of bringing together these three initiatives to address a common set of policy-relevant questions, this publication provides the motivation for the modelling activity, the rationale for specific choices made in the model experiments, and an overview of the organizational structures for both the modelling and the measurements used and analysed in a number of modelling studies in this special issue. PMID:29541091

Relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions depends on income level and policy.

PubMed

Ponce de Leon Barido, Diego; Marshall, Julian D

2014-04-01

We investigate empirically how national-level CO2 emissions are affected by urbanization and environmental policy. We use statistical modeling to explore panel data on annual CO2 emissions from 80 countries for the period 1983-2005. Random- and fixed-effects models indicate that, on the global average, the urbanization-emission elasticity value is 0.95 (i.e., a 1% increase in urbanization correlates with a 0.95% increase in emissions). Several regions display a statistically significant, positive elasticity for fixed- and random-effects models: lower-income Europe, India and the Sub-Continent, Latin America, and Africa. Using two proxies for environmental policy/outcomes (ratification status for the Kyoto Protocol; the Yale Environmental Performance Index), we find that in countries with stronger environmental policy/outcomes, urbanization has a more beneficial (or, a less negative) impact on emissions. Specifically, elasticity values are -1.1 (0.21) for higher-income (lower-income) countries with strong environmental policy, versus 0.65 (1.3) for higher-income (lower-income) countries with weak environmental policies. Our finding that the urbanization-emissions elasticity may depend on the strength of a country's environmental policy, not just marginal increases in income, is in contrast to the idea of universal urban scaling laws that can ignore local context. Most global population growth in the coming decades is expected to occur in urban areas of lower-income countries, which underscores the importance of these findings.

Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

2012-09-01

End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed value. However, this cost was minimal when local conservation actions were part of a concerted coast-wide plan. The simulations demonstrate the utility of using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model within NOAA’s Integrated Ecosystem Assessment, by illustrating an end-to-end modeling tool that allows consideration of multiple management alternatives that are relevant to numerous state, federal and private interests.

A multi-scale, multi-disciplinary approach for assessing the technological, economic and environmental performance of bio-based chemicals.

PubMed

Herrgård, Markus; Sukumara, Sumesh; Campodonico, Miguel; Zhuang, Kai

2015-12-01

In recent years, bio-based chemicals have gained interest as a renewable alternative to petrochemicals. However, there is a significant need to assess the technological, biological, economic and environmental feasibility of bio-based chemicals, particularly during the early research phase. Recently, the Multi-scale framework for Sustainable Industrial Chemicals (MuSIC) was introduced to address this issue by integrating modelling approaches at different scales ranging from cellular to ecological scales. This framework can be further extended by incorporating modelling of the petrochemical value chain and the de novo prediction of metabolic pathways connecting existing host metabolism to desirable chemical products. This multi-scale, multi-disciplinary framework for quantitative assessment of bio-based chemicals will play a vital role in supporting engineering, strategy and policy decisions as we progress towards a sustainable chemical industry. © 2015 Authors; published by Portland Press Limited.

Implementing Participatory Decision Making in Forest Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ananda, Jayanath

2007-04-01

Forest policy decisions are often a source of debate, conflict, and tension in many countries. The debate over forest land-use decisions often hinges on disagreements about societal values related to forest resource use. Disagreements on social value positions are fought out repeatedly at local, regional, national, and international levels at an enormous social cost. Forest policy problems have some inherent characteristics that make them more difficult to deal with. On the one hand, forest policy decisions involve uncertainty, long time scales, and complex natural systems and processes. On the other hand, such decisions encompass social, political, and cultural systems that are evolving in response to forces such as globalization. Until recently, forest policy was heavily influenced by the scientific community and various economic models of optimal resource use. However, growing environmental awareness and acceptance of participatory democracy models in policy formulation have forced the public authorities to introduce new participatory mechanisms to manage forest resources. Most often, the efforts to include the public in policy formulation can be described using the lower rungs of Arnstein’s public participation typology. This paper presents an approach that incorporates stakeholder preferences into forest land-use policy using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). An illustrative case of regional forest-policy formulation in Australia is used to demonstrate the approach. It is contended that applying the AHP in the policy process could considerably enhance the transparency of participatory process and public acceptance of policy decisions.

Multi-scale model of the U.S. transportation energy market for policy assessment.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

Across the globe, issues related to energy, its sources, uses, and impacts on climate change are at the forefront : of political and environmental debates (e.g., the 2012 United Nations Climate Change Conference at Doha, : http://unfccc.int). Current...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeh, Sonia; Yang, Christopher; Gibbs, Michael

California aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. We compare six energy models that have played various roles in informing the state policymakers in setting climate policy goals and targets. These models adopt a range of modeling structures, including stock-turnover back-casting models, a least-cost optimization model, macroeconomic/macro-econometric models, and an electricity dispatch model. Results from these models provide useful insights in terms of the transformations in the energy system required, including efficiency improvements in cars, trucks, and buildings, electrification of end-uses, low- or zero-carbon electricity and fuels, aggressive adoptions of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs),more » demand reduction, and large reductions of non-energy GHG emissions. Some of these studies also suggest that the direct economic costs can be fairly modest or even generate net savings, while the indirect macroeconomic benefits are large, as shifts in employment and capital investments could have higher economic returns than conventional energy expenditures. These models, however, often assume perfect markets, perfect competition, and zero transaction costs. They also do not provide specific policy guidance on how these transformative changes can be achieved. Greater emphasis on modeling uncertainty, consumer behaviors, heterogeneity of impacts, and spatial modeling would further enhance policymakers' ability to design more effective and targeted policies. Here, this paper presents an example of how policymakers, energy system modelers and stakeholders interact and work together to develop and evaluate long-term state climate policy targets. Lastly, even though this paper focuses on California, the process of dialogue and interactions, modeling results, and lessons learned can be generally adopted across different regions and scales.« less

Water resources planning and management : A stochastic dual dynamic programming approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goor, Q.; Pinte, D.; Tilmant, A.

2008-12-01

Allocating water between different users and uses, including the environment, is one of the most challenging task facing water resources managers and has always been at the heart of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). As water scarcity is expected to increase over time, allocation decisions among the different uses will have to be found taking into account the complex interactions between water and the economy. Hydro-economic optimization models can capture those interactions while prescribing efficient allocation policies. Many hydro-economic models found in the literature are formulated as large-scale non linear optimization problems (NLP), seeking to maximize net benefits from the system operation while meeting operational and/or institutional constraints, and describing the main hydrological processes. However, those models rarely incorporate the uncertainty inherent to the availability of water, essentially because of the computational difficulties associated stochastic formulations. The purpose of this presentation is to present a stochastic programming model that can identify economically efficient allocation policies in large-scale multipurpose multireservoir systems. The model is based on stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP), an extension of traditional SDP that is not affected by the curse of dimensionality. SDDP identify efficient allocation policies while considering the hydrologic uncertainty. The objective function includes the net benefits from the hydropower and irrigation sectors, as well as penalties for not meeting operational and/or institutional constraints. To be able to implement the efficient decomposition scheme that remove the computational burden, the one-stage SDDP problem has to be a linear program. Recent developments improve the representation of the non-linear and mildly non- convex hydropower function through a convex hull approximation of the true hydropower function. This model is illustrated on a cascade of 14 reservoirs on the Nile river basin.

Large-Scale Assessments of Students' Learning and Education Policy: Synthesising Evidence across World Regions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tobin, Mollie; Nugroho, Dita; Lietz, Petra

2016-01-01

This article synthesises findings from two systematic reviews that examined evidence of the link between large-scale assessments (LSAs) and education policy in economically developing countries and in countries of the Asia-Pacific. Analyses summarise evidence of assessment characteristics and policy goals of LSAs that influence education policy,…

What criteria guide national entrepreneurs' policy decisions on user fee removal for maternal health care services? Use of a best-worst scaling choice experiment in West Africa.

PubMed

Torbica, Aleksandra; De Allegri, Manuela; Belemsaga, Danielle; Medina-Lara, Antonieta; Ridde, Valery

2014-10-01

Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa have implemented policies to remove or reduce user fees. Our aim was to identify criteria guiding such decisions among national policy entrepreneurs, those who link up problem definition, solution development and political processes. We administered a best-worst scaling (BWS) experiment to 89 policy entrepreneurs, asking them to identify the most and the least important criteria on a series of predefined sets. Sets were compiled using a Balance Incomplete Block Design which generated random combinations of all 11 criteria included in the experiment. In turn, those had emerged from a prior set of focus group discussions organized among policy entrepreneurs. Ordered logit models were used to investigate the value of single criteria as well as heterogeneity of preferences. Political commitment was identified as the most important criterion guiding policy decisions on user fee abolition or reduction to the overall sample, but particularly so for more experienced respondents aged over 50 years. International pressure and donor money were identified as least important while equity and institutional capacity were deemed of relatively little importance. Respondents more involved in advising on policy than on formulating policy rated economic issues such as financial sustainability and cost-effectiveness as less important. It is feasible to apply BWS experiments in low-income countries, although whether the technique can be adjusted to elicit preferences among non-literate respondents in these settings is unclear. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Development and Application of a Stakeholder Assisted Dynamic Model to Facilitate Socio Hydrological Groundwater Management on Watershed Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baig, A. I.; Adamowski, J. F.; Malard, J. J.; Peng, G.

2017-12-01

Groundwater resource, especially in canal downstream areas are under direct threat due to over extraction by farming community. The resource is easily exploitable and no regulatory policies are enforced effectively in the region. Therefore, there is an urgent need to manage the resource judiciously through policy implementation and stakeholder engagement. In developing countries such as Pakistan, effective management solutions need consideration of some addition factors such as small land holdings, the poor economic status of farmers, and limited modeling and mathematical skills. This presentation will discuss development and application of a comprehensive but simple stakeholder assisted dynamic model to address such challenges. Two major components of the dynamic model were: (i) a system dynamics model that describes socio-economic factors such as market values; and ii) a physically based model that simulates the salt balance in the root zone with conjunctive use of canal and tube well irrigation water. Stakeholder proposed policy scenarios such as canal lining, government-sponsored tubewell installation schemes were tested and optimized through economic and environmental tradeoff criteria. After 20 years of simulation, government subsidies on tubewells appear as a short term policy that resulted 37% increase in water availability with 12% increase in farmer income. However, it showed detrimental effects on groundwater sustainability in long terms, with 10% drop in groundwater levels.

Modelling soil erosion at European scale: the importance of management practices and the future climate and land use scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Poesen, Jean; Lugato, Emanuele; Montanarella, Luca; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-04-01

The implementation of RUSLE2015 for modelling soil loss by water erosion at European scale has introduced important aspects related to management practices. The policy measurements such as reduced tillage, crop residues, cover crops, grass margins, stone walls and contouring have been incorporated in the RUSLE2015 modelling platform. The recent policy interventions introduced in Good Agricultural Environmental Conditions of Common Agricultural Policy have reduced the rate of soil loss in the EU by an average of 9.5% overall, and by 20% for arable lands (NATURE, 526, 195). However, further economic and political action should rebrand the value of soil as part of ecosystem services, increase the income of rural land owners, involve young farmers and organize regional services for licensing land use changes (Land Degradation and Development, 27 (6): 1547-1551). RUSLE2015 is combining the future policy scenarios and land use changes introduced by predictions of LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform. Latest developments in RUSLE2015 allow also incorporating the climate change scenarios and the forthcoming intensification of rainfall in North and Central Europe contrary to mixed trends in Mediterranean basin. The rainfall erosivity predictions estimate a mean increase by 18% in European Union by 2050. Recently, a module of CENTURY model was coupled with the RUSLE2015 for estimating the effect of erosion in current carbon balance in European agricultural lands (Global Change Biology, 22(5), 1976-1984; 2016). Finally, the monthly erosivity datasets (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315) introduce a dynamic component in RUSLE2015 and it is a step towards spatio-temporal soil erosion mapping at continental scale. The monthly mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should apply in different seasons of the year. In the future, the soil erosion-modelling platform will incorporate the land use intra-annual variability, sediment transport and economic assessments of land degradation. Panagos, P., Borrelli, P., Robinson, D.A. 2015. Common Agricultural Policy: Tackling soil loss across Europe. Nature 526: 195 Panagos, P., Imeson, A., Meusburger, K., Borrelli, P., Poesen, J., Alewell, C. 2016. Soil Conservation in Europe: Wish or Reality? Land Degradation and Development, 27(6): 1547-1551 Lugato, E., Paustian, K., Panagos, P. et al. 2016. Quantifying the erosion effect on current carbon budget of European agricultural soils at high spatial resolution. Global Change Biology. 22(5): 1976-1984 Ballabio, C., Borrelli, P. et al. 2017. Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe. Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315

Frontiers in Atmospheric Chemistry Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Meleux, Frederik; Rouïl, Laurence

2013-04-01

The first pan-European kilometre-scale atmospheric chemistry simulation is introduced. The continental-scale air pollution episode of January 2009 is modelled with the CHIMERE offline chemistry-transport model with a massive grid of 2 million horizontal points, performed on 2000 CPU of a high performance computing system hosted by the Research and Technology Computing Center at the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CCRT/CEA). Besides the technical challenge, which demonstrated the robustness of the selected air quality model, we discuss the added value in terms of air pollution modelling and decision support. The comparison with in-situ observations shows that model biases are significantly improved despite some spurious added spatial variability attributed to shortcomings in the emission downscaling process and coarse resolution of the meteorological fields. The increased spatial resolution is clearly beneficial for the detection of exceedances and exposure modelling. We reveal small scale air pollution patterns that highlight the contribution of city plumes to background air pollution levels. Up to a factor 5 underestimation of the fraction of population exposed to detrimental levels of pollution can be obtained with a coarse simulation if subgrid scale correction such as urban increments are ignored. This experiment opens new perspectives for environmental decision making. After two decades of efforts to reduce air pollutant emissions across Europe, the challenge is now to find the optimal trade-off between national and local air quality management strategies. While the first approach is based on sectoral strategies and energy policies, the later builds upon new alternatives such as urban development. The strategies, the decision pathways and the involvement of individual citizen differ, and a compromise based on cost and efficiency must be found. We illustrated how high performance computing in atmospheric science can contribute to this aim. Although further developments are still needed to secure the results for routine policy use, the door is now open...

Watershed sediment measurement and sediment transport modeling techniques: Case study to quantify the impact of converting cropland to forested stream buffers on soil loss and water quality at the watershed scale

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) have been widely used to simulate watershed hydrologic processes and the effect of management, such as agroforestry, on soil and water resources. In order to use model outputs for tasks ranging from aiding policy decision making to r...

Simulation of nitrate reduction in groundwater - An upscaling approach from small catchments to the Baltic Sea basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, A. L.; Donnelly, C.; Refsgaard, J. C.; Karlsson, I. B.

2018-01-01

This paper describes a modeling approach proposed to simulate the impact of local-scale, spatially targeted N-mitigation measures for the Baltic Sea Basin. Spatially targeted N-regulations aim at exploiting the considerable spatial differences in the natural N-reduction taking place in groundwater and surface water. While such measures can be simulated using local-scale physically-based catchment models, use of such detailed models for the 1.8 million km2 Baltic Sea basin is not feasible due to constraints on input data and computing power. Large-scale models that are able to simulate the Baltic Sea basin, on the other hand, do not have adequate spatial resolution to simulate some of the field-scale measures. Our methodology combines knowledge and results from two local-scale physically-based MIKE SHE catchment models, the large-scale and more conceptual E-HYPE model, and auxiliary data in order to enable E-HYPE to simulate how spatially targeted regulation of agricultural practices may affect N-loads to the Baltic Sea. We conclude that the use of E-HYPE with this upscaling methodology enables the simulation of the impact on N-loads of applying a spatially targeted regulation at the Baltic Sea basin scale to the correct order-of-magnitude. The E-HYPE model together with the upscaling methodology therefore provides a sound basis for large-scale policy analysis; however, we do not expect it to be sufficiently accurate to be useful for the detailed design of local-scale measures.

A site-related suitability analysis for the production of biomass as a contribution to sustainable regional land-use.

PubMed

Förster, Michael; Helms, Yvonne; Herberg, Alfred; Köppen, Antje; Kunzmann, Kathrin; Radtke, Dörte; Ross, Lutz; Itzerott, Sibylle

2008-04-01

The use of renewable energy in Europe offers the possibility of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and contributes to energy security and independence. With the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and a variety of recently introduced national directives supporting renewable energy sources in the European Union, the economic attractiveness of bioenergy production has distinctly increased. This article combines an economic evaluation of biomass production with site-related natural conditions of the Havelland region, situated in the north-east area of Germany. Two methods for evaluating site-specific potential biomass yields were compared. For three example biomass crops, evaluations of yield estimations at agricultural lots for site-optimized suitability (SOS) and conventional suitability (CS) were carried out. Both modelling approaches were compared. The results of the GIS modelling indicate that the financial support for increasing the use of renewable energy with the German feed-in system, called Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG), will possibly lead to an increased cultivation of crops with high biomass output. This monocultural orientation of farming practices and the negative effects on the ecosystem could act in opposition to other environmental initiatives of the EU. The outputs of the SOS analysis show that high biomass production could be integrated into environmental policy proposals. Therefore, new EU policy should take modified subsidies into consideration in order to avoid developing conflicts between small-scale changes in landscape ecosystems caused by large-scale transformations in energy policy.

An application of remote sensing data in mapping landscape-level forest biomass for monitoring the effectiveness of forest policies in northeastern China.

PubMed

Wang, Xinchuang; Shao, Guofan; Chen, Hua; Lewis, Bernard J; Qi, Guang; Yu, Dapao; Zhou, Li; Dai, Limin

2013-09-01

Monitoring the dynamics of forest biomass at various spatial scales is important for better understanding the terrestrial carbon cycle as well as improving the effectiveness of forest policies and forest management activities. In this article, field data and Landsat image data acquired in 1999 and 2007 were utilized to quantify spatiotemporal changes of forest biomass for Dongsheng Forestry Farm in Changbai Mountain region of northeastern China. We found that Landsat TM band 4 and Difference Vegetation Index with a 3 × 3 window size were the best predictors associated with forest biomass estimations in the study area. The inverse regression model with Landsat TM band 4 predictor was found to be the best model. The total forest biomass in the study area decreased slightly from 2.77 × 10(6) Mg in 1999 to 2.73 × 10(6) Mg in 2007, which agreed closely with field-based model estimates. The area of forested land increased from 17.9 × 10(3) ha in 1999 to 18.1 × 10(3) ha in 2007. The stabilization of forest biomass and the slight increase of forested land occurred in the period following implementations of national forest policies in China in 1999. The pattern of changes in both forest biomass and biomass density was altered due to different management regimes adopted in light of those policies. This study reveals the usefulness of the remote sensing-based approach for detecting and monitoring quantitative changes in forest biomass at a landscape scale.

Effects of state cigarette excise taxes and smoke-free air policies on state per capita alcohol consumption in the U.S., 1980–2009

PubMed Central

Krauss, Melissa J.; Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A.; Plunk, Andrew D.; Bierut, Laura J.; Grucza, Richard A.

2014-01-01

Background Increasing state cigarette excise taxes and strengthening smoke-free air laws are known to reduce smoking prevalence. Some studies suggest that such policies may also reduce alcohol use, but results for cigarette taxes have been mixed and associations with smoke-free air policies have been limited to some demographic subgroups. To shed further light on the potential secondary effects of tobacco control policy, we examined whether increases in cigarette taxes and strengthening of smoke-free air laws were associated with reductions of per capita alcohol consumption and whether any reductions were specific to certain beverage types. Methods State per capita alcohol consumption from 1980–2009 was modeled as a function of state price per pack of cigarettes and smoke-free air policy scores while controlling for secular trends and salient state covariates. Both policy measures also accounted for local policies. Total alcohol, beer, wine, and spirits consumption per capita were modeled separately. For each type of beverage, we used a nested models approach to determine whether the two policies together were associated with reduced consumption. Results For total alcohol consumption, and for beer or spirits (but not wine), one or both tobacco policies were associated with reductions in consumption. A one percent increase in cigarette price per pack was associated with a 0.083% decrease in per capita total alcohol consumption (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0002% to 0.166%, p=.0495), and a one point increase in SFA policy score, measured on a 6-point scale, was associated with a 1.1% decrease in per capita total alcohol consumption (95% CI 0.4% to 1.7%, p=.001; p<.001 for the hypothesis that the two policies are jointly associated with reduced alcohol consumption). Conclusions The public health benefits of increasing cigarette taxes and smoke-free policies may go beyond the reduction of smoking and extend to alcohol consumption, specifically beer and spirits. PMID:25257814

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display in Orlando

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display. A full-scale model of the James Webb Space Telescope was built by the prime contractor, Northrop Grumman, to provide a better understanding of the size, scale and complexity of this satellite. The model is constructed mainly of aluminum and steel, weighs 12,000 lb., and is approximately 80 feet long, 40 feet wide and 40 feet tall. The model requires 2 trucks to ship it and assembly takes a crew of 12 approximately four days. This model has traveled to a few sites since 2005. The photographs below were taken at some of its destinations. The model was on display at The International Society for Optical Engineering's (SPIE) week-long Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentations conference,May 25 - 30, 2006. Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/Dr Mark Clampin NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Quantifying aggregated uncertainty in Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence and populations at risk via efficient space-time geostatistical joint simulation.

PubMed

Gething, Peter W; Patil, Anand P; Hay, Simon I

2010-04-01

Risk maps estimating the spatial distribution of infectious diseases are required to guide public health policy from local to global scales. The advent of model-based geostatistics (MBG) has allowed these maps to be generated in a formal statistical framework, providing robust metrics of map uncertainty that enhances their utility for decision-makers. In many settings, decision-makers require spatially aggregated measures over large regions such as the mean prevalence within a country or administrative region, or national populations living under different levels of risk. Existing MBG mapping approaches provide suitable metrics of local uncertainty--the fidelity of predictions at each mapped pixel--but have not been adapted for measuring uncertainty over large areas, due largely to a series of fundamental computational constraints. Here the authors present a new efficient approximating algorithm that can generate for the first time the necessary joint simulation of prevalence values across the very large prediction spaces needed for global scale mapping. This new approach is implemented in conjunction with an established model for P. falciparum allowing robust estimates of mean prevalence at any specified level of spatial aggregation. The model is used to provide estimates of national populations at risk under three policy-relevant prevalence thresholds, along with accompanying model-based measures of uncertainty. By overcoming previously unchallenged computational barriers, this study illustrates how MBG approaches, already at the forefront of infectious disease mapping, can be extended to provide large-scale aggregate measures appropriate for decision-makers.

PORE-SCALE MODELING OF BIOLOGICAL CLOGGING DUE TO AGGREGATE EXPANSION: A MATERIAL MECHANICS APPROACH. (R828772)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Building-related health impacts in European and Chinese cities: a scalable assessment method.

PubMed

Tuomisto, Jouni T; Niittynen, Marjo; Pärjälä, Erkki; Asikainen, Arja; Perez, Laura; Trüeb, Stephan; Jantunen, Matti; Künzli, Nino; Sabel, Clive E

2015-12-14

Public health is often affected by societal decisions that are not primarily about health. Climate change mitigation requires intensive actions to minimise greenhouse gas emissions in the future. Many of these actions take place in cities due to their traffic, buildings, and energy consumption. Active climate mitigation policies will also, aside of their long term global impacts, have short term local impacts, both positive and negative, on public health. Our main objective was to develop a generic open impact model to estimate health impacts of emissions due to heat and power consumption of buildings. In addition, the model should be usable for policy comparisons by non-health experts on city level with city-specific data, it should give guidance on the particular climate mitigation questions but at the same time increase understanding on the related health impacts and the model should follow the building stock in time, make comparisons between scenarios, propagate uncertainties, and scale to different levels of detail. We tested The functionalities of the model in two case cities, namely Kuopio and Basel. We estimated the health and climate impacts of two actual policies planned or implemented in the cities. The assessed policies were replacement of peat with wood chips in co-generation of district heat and power, and improved energy efficiency of buildings achieved by renovations. Health impacts were not large in the two cities, but also clear differences in implementation and predictability between the two tested policies were seen. Renovation policies can improve the energy efficiency of buildings and reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly, but this requires systematic policy sustained for decades. In contrast, fuel changes in large district heating facilities may have rapid and large impacts on emissions. However, the life cycle impacts of different fuels is somewhat an open question. In conclusion, we were able to develop a practical model for city-level assessments promoting evidence-based policy in general and health aspects in particular. Although all data and code is freely available, implementation of the current model version in a new city requires some modelling skills.

Appropriate complexity for the prediction of coastal and estuarine geomorphic behaviour at decadal to centennial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, Jon; Payo, Andres; Murray, Brad; Orford, Julian; Eliot, Matt; Cowell, Peter

2016-03-01

Coastal and estuarine landforms provide a physical template that not only accommodates diverse ecosystem functions and human activities, but also mediates flood and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. In this paper, we explore some of the issues associated with the conceptualisation and modelling of coastal morphological change at time and space scales relevant to managers and policy makers. Firstly, we revisit the question of how to define the most appropriate scales at which to seek quantitative predictions of landform change within an age defined by human interference with natural sediment systems and by the prospect of significant changes in climate and ocean forcing. Secondly, we consider the theoretical bases and conceptual frameworks for determining which processes are most important at a given scale of interest and the related problem of how to translate this understanding into models that are computationally feasible, retain a sound physical basis and demonstrate useful predictive skill. In particular, we explore the limitations of a primary scale approach and the extent to which these can be resolved with reference to the concept of the coastal tract and application of systems theory. Thirdly, we consider the importance of different styles of landform change and the need to resolve not only incremental evolution of morphology but also changes in the qualitative dynamics of a system and/or its gross morphological configuration. The extreme complexity and spatially distributed nature of landform systems means that quantitative prediction of future changes must necessarily be approached through mechanistic modelling of some form or another. Geomorphology has increasingly embraced so-called 'reduced complexity' models as a means of moving from an essentially reductionist focus on the mechanics of sediment transport towards a more synthesist view of landform evolution. However, there is little consensus on exactly what constitutes a reduced complexity model and the term itself is both misleading and, arguably, unhelpful. Accordingly, we synthesise a set of requirements for what might be termed 'appropriate complexity modelling' of quantitative coastal morphological change at scales commensurate with contemporary management and policy-making requirements: 1) The system being studied must be bounded with reference to the time and space scales at which behaviours of interest emerge and/or scientific or management problems arise; 2) model complexity and comprehensiveness must be appropriate to the problem at hand; 3) modellers should seek a priori insights into what kind of behaviours are likely to be evident at the scale of interest and the extent to which the behavioural validity of a model may be constrained by its underlying assumptions and its comprehensiveness; 4) informed by qualitative insights into likely dynamic behaviour, models should then be formulated with a view to resolving critical state changes; and 5) meso-scale modelling of coastal morphological change should reflect critically on the role of modelling and its relation to the observable world.

Heuristic and optimal policy computations in the human brain during sequential decision-making.

PubMed

Korn, Christoph W; Bach, Dominik R

2018-01-23

Optimal decisions across extended time horizons require value calculations over multiple probabilistic future states. Humans may circumvent such complex computations by resorting to easy-to-compute heuristics that approximate optimal solutions. To probe the potential interplay between heuristic and optimal computations, we develop a novel sequential decision-making task, framed as virtual foraging in which participants have to avoid virtual starvation. Rewards depend only on final outcomes over five-trial blocks, necessitating planning over five sequential decisions and probabilistic outcomes. Here, we report model comparisons demonstrating that participants primarily rely on the best available heuristic but also use the normatively optimal policy. FMRI signals in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) relate to heuristic and optimal policies and associated choice uncertainties. Crucially, reaction times and dorsal MPFC activity scale with discrepancies between heuristic and optimal policies. Thus, sequential decision-making in humans may emerge from integration between heuristic and optimal policies, implemented by controllers in MPFC.

Is sustainability achievable? Exploring the limits of sustainability with model systems.

PubMed

Shastri, Yogendra; Diwekar, Urmila; Cabezas, Heriberto; Williamson, James

2008-09-01

Successful implementation of sustainability ideas in ecosystem management requires a basic understanding of the often nonlinear and nonintuitive relationships among different dimensions of sustainability, particularly the system-wide implications of human actions. This basic understanding further includes a sense of the time scale of possible future events and the limits of what is and is not likely to be possible. With this understanding, systematic approaches can then be used to develop policy guidelines for the system. This article presents an illustration of these ideas by analyzing an integrated ecological-economic-social model, which comprises various ecological (natural) and domesticated compartments representing species along with a macroeconomic price setting model. The stable and qualitatively realistic model is used to analyze different relevant scenarios. Apart from highlighting complex relationships within the system, it identifies potentially unsustainable future developments such as increased human per capita consumption rates. Dynamic optimization is then used to develop time-dependent policy guidelines for the unsustainable scenarios using objective functions that aim to minimize fluctuations in the system's Fisher information. The results can help to identify effective policy parameters and highlight the tradeoff between natural and domesticated compartments while managing such integrated systems. The results should also qualitatively guide further investigations in the area of system level studies and policy development.

Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

PubMed

Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A

2016-01-01

Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This indicates that SRCs negligibly affect trade-offs between individual ESS. Coupling spatially explicit economic simulation models with environmental and ESS assessment models can contribute to a comprehensive impact assessment of bioenergy feedstocks that have not yet been planted.

Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions

PubMed Central

Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A.; Meyer, Markus A.

2016-01-01

Meeting the world’s growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This indicates that SRCs negligibly affect trade-offs between individual ESS. Coupling spatially explicit economic simulation models with environmental and ESS assessment models can contribute to a comprehensive impact assessment of bioenergy feedstocks that have not yet been planted. PMID:27082742

Modeling Change in Large-Scale Longitudinal Studies of Educational Growth: Four Decades of Contributions to the Assessment of Educational Growth. ETC R&D Scientific and Policy Contributions Series. ETS SPC-12-01. Research Report No. RR-12-04

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rock, Donald A.

2012-01-01

This paper provides a history of ETS's role in developing assessment instruments and psychometric procedures for measuring change in large-scale national assessments funded by the Longitudinal Studies branch of the National Center for Education Statistics. It documents the innovations developed during more than 30 years of working with…

Modeling Change in Large-Scale Longitudinal Studies of Educational Growth: Four Decades of Contributions to the Assessment of Educational Growth. Research Report. ETS RR-12-04. ETS R&D Scientific and Policy Contributions Series. ETS SPC-12-01

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rock, Donald A.

2012-01-01

This paper provides a history of ETS's role in developing assessment instruments and psychometric procedures for measuring change in large-scale national assessments funded by the Longitudinal Studies branch of the National Center for Education Statistics. It documents the innovations developed during more than 30 years of working with…

Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in scenarios similar to the Representative Concentration Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuwah, Clifford; van Noije, Twan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Hazeleger, Wilco; Strunk, Achim; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Beltran, Angelica Mendoza; van Vliet, Jasper

2013-11-01

The uncertain, future development of emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols forms a key factor for future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) only explore part of this range as they all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control policies will be implemented. In this study, we explore how different assumptions on future air pollution policy and climate policy lead to different concentrations of air pollutants for a set of RCP-like scenarios developed using the IMAGE model. These scenarios combine low and high air pollution variants of the scenarios with radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 2.6 W m-2 and 6.0 W m-2. Simulations using the global atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 for the present-day climate show that both climate mitigation and air pollution control policies have large-scale effects on pollutant concentrations, often of similar magnitude. If no further air pollution policies would be implemented, pollution levels could be considerably higher than in the RCPs, especially in Asia. Air pollution control measures could significantly reduce the warming by tropospheric ozone and black carbon and the cooling by sulphate by 2020, and in the longer term contribute to enhanced warming by methane. These effects tend to cancel each other on a global scale. According to our estimates the effect of the worldwide implementation of air pollution control measures on the total global mean direct radiative forcing in 2050 is +0.09 W m-2 in the 6.0 W m-2 scenario and -0.16 W m-2 in the 2.6 W m-2 scenario.

Evaluating the Health Impact of Large-Scale Public Policy Changes: Classical and Novel Approaches

PubMed Central

Basu, Sanjay; Meghani, Ankita; Siddiqi, Arjumand

2018-01-01

Large-scale public policy changes are often recommended to improve public health. Despite varying widely—from tobacco taxes to poverty-relief programs—such policies present a common dilemma to public health researchers: how to evaluate their health effects when randomized controlled trials are not possible. Here, we review the state of knowledge and experience of public health researchers who rigorously evaluate the health consequences of large-scale public policy changes. We organize our discussion by detailing approaches to address three common challenges of conducting policy evaluations: distinguishing a policy effect from time trends in health outcomes or preexisting differences between policy-affected and -unaffected communities (using difference-in-differences approaches); constructing a comparison population when a policy affects a population for whom a well-matched comparator is not immediately available (using propensity score or synthetic control approaches); and addressing unobserved confounders by utilizing quasi-random variations in policy exposure (using regression discontinuity, instrumental variables, or near-far matching approaches). PMID:28384086

Application of Wavelet Filters in an Evaluation of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Air quality model evaluation can be enhanced with time-scale specific comparisons of outputs and observations. For example, high-frequency (hours to one day) time scale information in observed ozone is not well captured by deterministic models and its incorporation into model performance metrics lead one to devote resources to stochastic variations in model outputs. In this analysis, observations are compared with model outputs at seasonal, weekly, diurnal and intra-day time scales. Filters provide frequency specific information that can be used to compare the strength (amplitude) and timing (phase) of observations and model estimates. The National Exposure Research Laboratory′s (NERL′s) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA′s mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD′s research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the Nation′s air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being used by EPA, NOAA, and the air pollution community in understanding and forecasting not only the magnitude of the air pollu

Optimal monetary policy and oil price shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kormilitsina, Anna

This dissertation is comprised of two chapters. In the first chapter, I investigate the role of systematic U.S. monetary policy in the presence of oil price shocks. The second chapter is devoted to studying different approaches to modeling energy demand. In an influential paper, Bernanke, Gertler, and Watson (1997) and (2004) argue that systematic monetary policy exacerbated the recessions the U.S. economy experienced in the aftermath of post World War II oil price shocks. In the first chapter of this dissertation, I critically evaluate this claim in the context of an estimated medium-scale model of the U.S. business cycle. Specifically, I solve for the Ramsey optimal monetary policy in the medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (henceforth DSGE) of Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (2005). To model the demand for oil, I use the approach of Finn (2000). According to this approach, the utilization of capital services requires oil usage. In the related literature on the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks, it is common to calibrate structural parameters of the model. In contrast to this literature, I estimate the parameters of my DSGE model. The estimation strategy involves matching the impulse responses from the theoretical model to responses predicted by an empirical model. For estimation, I use the alternative to the classical Laplace type estimator proposed by Chernozhukov and Hong (2003). To obtain the empirical impulse responses, I identify an oil price shock in a structural VAR (SVAR) model of the U.S. business cycle. The SVAR model predicts that, in response to an oil price increase, GDP, investment, hours, capital utilization, and the real wage fall, while the nominal interest rate and inflation rise. These findings are economically intuitive and in line with the existing empirical evidence. Comparing the actual and the Ramsey optimal monetary policy response to an oil price shock, I find that the optimal policy allows for more inflation, a larger drop in wages, and a rise in hours compared to those actually observed. The central finding of this Chapter is that the optimal policy is associated with a smaller drop in GDP and other macroeconomic variables. The latter results therefore confirm the claim of Bernanke, Gertler and Watson that monetary policy was to a large extent responsible for the recessions that followed the oil price shocks. However, under the optimal policy, interest rates are tightened even more than what is predicted by the empirical model. This result contrasts sharply with the claim of Bernanke, Gertler, and Watson that the Federal Reserve exacerbated recessions by the excessive tightening of interest rates in response to the oil price increases. In contrast to related studies that focus on output stabilization, I find that eliminating the negative response of GDP to an oil price shock is not desirable. In the second chapter of this dissertation, I compare two approaches to modeling energy sector. Because the share of energy in GDP is small, models of energy have been criticized for their inability to explain sizeable effects of energy price increases on the economic activity. I find that if the price of energy is an exogenous AR(1) process, then the two modeling approaches produce the responses of GDP similar in size to responses observed in most empirical studies, but fail to produce the timing and the shape of the response. DSGE framework can solve the timing and the shape of impulse responses problem, however, fails to replicate the size of the impulse responses. Thus, in DSGE frameworks, amplifying mechanisms for the effect of the energy price shock and estimation based calibration of model parameters are needed to produce the size of the GDP response to the energy price shock.

Collaborative-Large scale Engineering Assessment Networks for Environmental Research: The Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moo-Young, H.

2004-05-01

A networked infrastructure for engineering solutions and policy alternatives is necessary to assess, manage, and protect complex, anthropogenic ally stressed environmental resources effectively. Reductionist and discrete disciplinary methodologies are no longer adequate to evaluate and model complex environmental systems and anthropogenic stresses. While the reductonist approach provides important information regarding individual mechanisms, it cannot provide complete information about how multiple processes are related. Therefore, it is not possible to make accurate predictions about system responses to engineering interventions and the effectiveness of policy options. For example, experts cannot agree on best management strategies for contaminated sediments in riverine and estuarine systems. This is due, in part to the fact that existing models do not accurately capture integrated system dynamics. In addition, infrastructure is not available for investigators to exchange and archive data, to collaborate on new investigative methods, and to synthesize these results to develop engineering solutions and policy alternatives. Our vision for the future is to create a network comprising field facilities and a collaboration of engineers, scientists, policy makers, and community groups. This will allow integration across disciplines, across different temporal and spatial scales, surface and subsurface geographies, and air sheds and watersheds. Benefits include fast response to changes in system health, real-time decision making, and continuous data collection that can be used to anticipate future problems, and to develop sound engineering solutions and management decisions. CLEANER encompasses four general aspects: 1) A Network of environmental field facilities instrumented for the acquisition and analysis of environmental data; 2) A Virtual Repository of Data and information technology for engineering modeling, analysis and visualization of data, i.e. an environmental cyber-infrastructure; 3) A Mechanism for multidisciplinary research and education activities designed to exploit the output of the instrumented sites and networked information technology, to formulate engineering and policy options directed toward the protection, remediation, and restoration of stressed environments and sustainability of environmental resources; and 4) A Collaboration among engineers, natural and social scientists, educators, policy makers, industry, non-governmental organizations, the public, and other stakeholders.

The Limits and Possibilities of International Large-Scale Assessments. Education Policy Brief. Volume 9, Number 2, Spring 2011

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rutkowski, David J.; Prusinski, Ellen L.

2011-01-01

The staff of the Center for Evaluation & Education Policy (CEEP) at Indiana University is often asked about how international large-scale assessments influence U.S. educational policy. This policy brief is designed to provide answers to some of the most frequently asked questions encountered by CEEP researchers concerning the three most popular…

A modeling comparison of deep greenhouse gas emissions reduction scenarios by 2030 in California

DOE PAGES

Yeh, Sonia; Yang, Christopher; Gibbs, Michael; ...

2016-10-21

California aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. We compare six energy models that have played various roles in informing the state policymakers in setting climate policy goals and targets. These models adopt a range of modeling structures, including stock-turnover back-casting models, a least-cost optimization model, macroeconomic/macro-econometric models, and an electricity dispatch model. Results from these models provide useful insights in terms of the transformations in the energy system required, including efficiency improvements in cars, trucks, and buildings, electrification of end-uses, low- or zero-carbon electricity and fuels, aggressive adoptions of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs),more » demand reduction, and large reductions of non-energy GHG emissions. Some of these studies also suggest that the direct economic costs can be fairly modest or even generate net savings, while the indirect macroeconomic benefits are large, as shifts in employment and capital investments could have higher economic returns than conventional energy expenditures. These models, however, often assume perfect markets, perfect competition, and zero transaction costs. They also do not provide specific policy guidance on how these transformative changes can be achieved. Greater emphasis on modeling uncertainty, consumer behaviors, heterogeneity of impacts, and spatial modeling would further enhance policymakers' ability to design more effective and targeted policies. Here, this paper presents an example of how policymakers, energy system modelers and stakeholders interact and work together to develop and evaluate long-term state climate policy targets. Lastly, even though this paper focuses on California, the process of dialogue and interactions, modeling results, and lessons learned can be generally adopted across different regions and scales.« less

Seemingly unrelated intervention time series models for effectiveness evaluation of large scale environmental remediation.

PubMed

Ip, Ryan H L; Li, W K; Leung, Kenneth M Y

2013-09-15

Large scale environmental remediation projects applied to sea water always involve large amount of capital investments. Rigorous effectiveness evaluations of such projects are, therefore, necessary and essential for policy review and future planning. This study aims at investigating effectiveness of environmental remediation using three different Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) time series models with intervention effects, including Model (1) assuming no correlation within and across variables, Model (2) assuming no correlation across variable but allowing correlations within variable across different sites, and Model (3) allowing all possible correlations among variables (i.e., an unrestricted model). The results suggested that the unrestricted SUR model is the most reliable one, consistently having smallest variations of the estimated model parameters. We discussed our results with reference to marine water quality management in Hong Kong while bringing managerial issues into consideration. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOUBLED CO2 PRECIPITATION CHANGES FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA BASIN: DOWN-SCALING FROM THE GENESIS GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL. (R824807)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

MULTI-SCALE GRID DEFINITION IMPACTS ON REGIONAL, THREE-DIMENSIONAL AIR QUALITY MODEL PREDICTIONS AND PERFORMANCE. (R825821)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

TRANSFERABLE DISCHARGE PERMITS FOR CONTROL OF SO2 EMISSIONS FROM ILLINOIS POWER PLANTS (JOURNAL VERSION)

EPA Science Inventory

The paper discusses the use of a large scale simulation model in evaluating various policy alternatives for reducing SO2 emissions from Illinois electric power plants for a broad range of nuclear power capacity addition scenarios. A dynamic simulation of a transferable discharge ...

MULTIPLE-RATE MASS TRANSFER FOR MODELING DIFFUSION AND SURFACE REACTIONS IN MEDIA WITH PORE-SCALE HETEROGENEITY. (R825689C052)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Spatiotemporal variability of snow depletion curves derived from SNODAS for the conterminous United States, 2004-2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Driscoll, Jessica; Hay, Lauren E.; Bock, Andrew R.

2017-01-01

Assessment of water resources at a national scale is critical for understanding their vulnerability to future change in policy and climate. Representation of the spatiotemporal variability in snowmelt processes in continental-scale hydrologic models is critical for assessment of water resource response to continued climate change. Continental-extent hydrologic models such as the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model (NHM) represent snowmelt processes through the application of snow depletion curves (SDCs). SDCs relate normalized snow water equivalent (SWE) to normalized snow covered area (SCA) over a snowmelt season for a given modeling unit. SDCs were derived using output from the operational Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) snow model as daily 1-km gridded SWE over the conterminous United States. Daily SNODAS output were aggregated to a predefined watershed-scale geospatial fabric and used to also calculate SCA from October 1, 2004 to September 30, 2013. The spatiotemporal variability in SNODAS output at the watershed scale was evaluated through the spatial distribution of the median and standard deviation for the time period. Representative SDCs for each watershed-scale modeling unit over the conterminous United States (n = 54,104) were selected using a consistent methodology and used to create categories of snowmelt based on SDC shape. The relation of SDC categories to the topographic and climatic variables allow for national-scale categorization of snowmelt processes.

The Urban Food-Water Nexus: Modeling Water Footprints of Urban Agriculture using CityCrop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tooke, T. R.; Lathuilliere, M. J.; Coops, N. C.; Johnson, M. S.

2014-12-01

Urban agriculture provides a potential contribution towards more sustainable food production and mitigating some of the human impacts that accompany volatility in regional and global food supply. When considering the capacity of urban landscapes to produce food products, the impact of urban water demand required for food production in cities is often neglected. Urban agricultural studies also tend to be undertaken at broad spatial scales, overlooking the heterogeneity of urban form that exerts an extreme influence on the urban energy balance. As a result, urban planning and management practitioners require, but often do not have, spatially explicit and detailed information to support informed urban agricultural policy, especially as it relates to potential conflicts with sustainability goals targeting water-use. In this research we introduce a new model, CityCrop, a hybrid evapotranspiration-plant growth model that incorporates detailed digital representations of the urban surface and biophysical impacts of the built environment and urban trees to account for the daily variations in net surface radiation. The model enables very fine-scale (sub-meter) estimates of water footprints of potential urban agricultural production. Results of the model are demonstrated for an area in the City of Vancouver, Canada and compared to aspatial model estimates, demonstrating the unique considerations and sensitivities for current and future water footprints of urban agriculture and the implications for urban water planning and policy.

A policy-driven large scale ecological restoration: quantifying ecosystem services changes in the Loess Plateau of China.

PubMed

Lü, Yihe; Fu, Bojie; Feng, Xiaoming; Zeng, Yuan; Liu, Yu; Chang, Ruiying; Sun, Ge; Wu, Bingfang

2012-01-01

As one of the key tools for regulating human-ecosystem relations, environmental conservation policies can promote ecological rehabilitation across a variety of spatiotemporal scales. However, quantifying the ecological effects of such policies at the regional level is difficult. A case study was conducted at the regional level in the ecologically vulnerable region of the Loess Plateau, China, through the use of several methods including the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), hydrological modeling and multivariate analysis. An assessment of the changes over the period of 2000-2008 in four key ecosystem services was undertaken to determine the effects of the Chinese government's ecological rehabilitation initiatives implemented in 1999. These ecosystem services included water regulation, soil conservation, carbon sequestration and grain production. Significant conversions of farmland to woodland and grassland were found to have resulted in enhanced soil conservation and carbon sequestration, but decreased regional water yield under a warming and drying climate trend. The total grain production increased in spite of a significant decline in farmland acreage. These trends have been attributed to the strong socioeconomic incentives embedded in the ecological rehabilitation policy. Although some positive policy results have been achieved over the last decade, large uncertainty remains regarding long-term policy effects on the sustainability of ecological rehabilitation performance and ecosystem service enhancement. To reduce such uncertainty, this study calls for an adaptive management approach to regional ecological rehabilitation policy to be adopted, with a focus on the dynamic interactions between people and their environments in a changing world.

A Policy-Driven Large Scale Ecological Restoration: Quantifying Ecosystem Services Changes in the Loess Plateau of China

PubMed Central

Lü, Yihe; Fu, Bojie; Feng, Xiaoming; Zeng, Yuan; Liu, Yu; Chang, Ruiying; Sun, Ge; Wu, Bingfang

2012-01-01

As one of the key tools for regulating human-ecosystem relations, environmental conservation policies can promote ecological rehabilitation across a variety of spatiotemporal scales. However, quantifying the ecological effects of such policies at the regional level is difficult. A case study was conducted at the regional level in the ecologically vulnerable region of the Loess Plateau, China, through the use of several methods including the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), hydrological modeling and multivariate analysis. An assessment of the changes over the period of 2000–2008 in four key ecosystem services was undertaken to determine the effects of the Chinese government's ecological rehabilitation initiatives implemented in 1999. These ecosystem services included water regulation, soil conservation, carbon sequestration and grain production. Significant conversions of farmland to woodland and grassland were found to have resulted in enhanced soil conservation and carbon sequestration, but decreased regional water yield under a warming and drying climate trend. The total grain production increased in spite of a significant decline in farmland acreage. These trends have been attributed to the strong socioeconomic incentives embedded in the ecological rehabilitation policy. Although some positive policy results have been achieved over the last decade, large uncertainty remains regarding long-term policy effects on the sustainability of ecological rehabilitation performance and ecosystem service enhancement. To reduce such uncertainty, this study calls for an adaptive management approach to regional ecological rehabilitation policy to be adopted, with a focus on the dynamic interactions between people and their environments in a changing world. PMID:22359628

Understanding Policy Diffusion in the U.S.: An Information-Theoretical Approach to Unveil Connectivity Structures in Slowly Evolving Complex Systems.

PubMed

Anderson, Ross P; Jimenez, Geronimo; Bae, Jin Yung; Silver, Diana; Macinko, James; Porfiri, Maurizio

2016-01-01

Detecting and explaining the relationships among interacting components has long been a focal point of dynamical systems research. In this paper, we extend these types of data-driven analyses to the realm of public policy, whereby individual legislative entities interact to produce changes in their legal and political environments. We focus on the U.S. public health policy landscape, whose complexity determines our capacity as a society to effectively tackle pressing health issues. It has long been thought that some U.S. states innovate and enact new policies, while others mimic successful or competing states. However, the extent to which states learn from others, and the state characteristics that lead two states to influence one another, are not fully understood. Here, we propose a model-free, information-theoretical method to measure the existence and direction of influence of one state's policy or legal activity on others. Specifically, we tailor a popular notion of causality to handle the slow time-scale of policy adoption dynamics and unravel relationships among states from their recent law enactment histories. The method is validated using surrogate data generated from a new stochastic model of policy activity. Through the analysis of real data in alcohol, driving safety, and impaired driving policy, we provide evidence for the role of geography, political ideology, risk factors, and demographic and economic indicators on a state's tendency to learn from others when shaping its approach to public health regulation. Our method offers a new model-free approach to uncover interactions and establish cause-and-effect in slowly-evolving complex dynamical systems.

Understanding Policy Diffusion in the U.S.: An Information-Theoretical Approach to Unveil Connectivity Structures in Slowly Evolving Complex Systems

PubMed Central

Anderson, Ross P.; Jimenez, Geronimo; Bae, Jin Yung; Silver, Diana; Macinko, James; Porfiri, Maurizio

2017-01-01

Detecting and explaining the relationships among interacting components has long been a focal point of dynamical systems research. In this paper, we extend these types of data-driven analyses to the realm of public policy, whereby individual legislative entities interact to produce changes in their legal and political environments. We focus on the U.S. public health policy landscape, whose complexity determines our capacity as a society to effectively tackle pressing health issues. It has long been thought that some U.S. states innovate and enact new policies, while others mimic successful or competing states. However, the extent to which states learn from others, and the state characteristics that lead two states to influence one another, are not fully understood. Here, we propose a model-free, information-theoretical method to measure the existence and direction of influence of one state’s policy or legal activity on others. Specifically, we tailor a popular notion of causality to handle the slow time-scale of policy adoption dynamics and unravel relationships among states from their recent law enactment histories. The method is validated using surrogate data generated from a new stochastic model of policy activity. Through the analysis of real data in alcohol, driving safety, and impaired driving policy, we provide evidence for the role of geography, political ideology, risk factors, and demographic and economic indicators on a state’s tendency to learn from others when shaping its approach to public health regulation. Our method offers a new model-free approach to uncover interactions and establish cause-and-effect in slowly-evolving complex dynamical systems. PMID:29075163

Testing a high resolution CO2 and CO emission inventory against atmospheric observations in Salt Lake City, Utah for policy applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, D. L.; Lin, J. C.; Mitchell, L.; Gurney, K. R.; Patarasuk, R.; Mallia, D. V.; Fasoli, B.; Bares, R.; Catharine, D.; O'Keeffe, D.; Song, Y.; Huang, J.; Horel, J.; Crosman, E.; Hoch, S.; Ehleringer, J. R.

2016-12-01

We address the need for robust highly-resolved emissions and trace gas concentration data required for planning purposes and policy development aimed at managing pollutant sources. Adverse health effects resulting from urban pollution exposure are the result of proximity to emission sources and atmospheric mixing, necessitating models with high spatial and temporal resolution. As urban emission sources co-emit carbon dioxide (CO2) and criteria air pollutants (CAPs), efforts to reduce specific pollutants would synergistically reduce others. We present a contemporary (2010-2015) emissions inventory and modeled CO2 and carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations for Salt Lake County, Utah. We compare emissions transported by a dispersion model against stationary measurement data and present a systematic quantification of uncertainties. The emissions inventory for CO2 is based on the Hestia emissions data inventory that resolves emissions at hourly, building and road-link resolutions, as well as on an hourly gridded scale. The emissions were scaled using annual Energy Information Administration (EIA) fuel consumption data. We derived a CO emissions inventory using methods similar to Hestia, downscaling total county emissions from the 2011 Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) National Emissions Inventory (NEI). The gridded CO emissions were compared against the Hestia CO2 gridded data to characterize spatial similarities and differences between them. Correlations were calculated at multiple scales of aggregation. The Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Trasport (STILT) dispersion model was used to transport emissions and estimate pollutant concentrations at an hourly resolution. Modeled results were compared against stationary measurements in the Salt Lake County area. This comparison highlights spatial locations and hours of high variability and uncertainty. Sensitivity to biological fluxes as well as to specific economic sectors was tested by varying their contributions to modeled concentrations and calibrating their emissions.

Development and application of earth system models.

PubMed

Prinn, Ronald G

2013-02-26

The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important "systems" problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5 °C and 7.4 °C from 1981-2000 to 2091-2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4 °C to 14 °C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether "climate engineering" is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better.

Development and application of earth system models

PubMed Central

Prinn, Ronald G.

2013-01-01

The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important “systems” problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5 °C and 7.4 °C from 1981–2000 to 2091–2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4 °C to 14 °C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether “climate engineering” is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better. PMID:22706645

Large-Scale Assessments and Educational Policies in Italy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Damiani, Valeria

2016-01-01

Despite Italy's extensive participation in most large-scale assessments, their actual influence on Italian educational policies is less easy to identify. The present contribution aims at highlighting and explaining reasons for the weak and often inconsistent relationship between international surveys and policy-making processes in Italy.…

A decision support for an integrated multi-scale analysis of irrigation: DSIRR.

PubMed

Bazzani, Guido M

2005-12-01

The paper presents a decision support designed to conduct an economic-environmental assessment of the agricultural activity focusing on irrigation called 'Decision Support for IRRigated Agriculture' (DSIRR). The program describes the effect at catchment scale of choices taken at micro scale by independent actors, the farmers, by simulating their decision process. The decision support (DS) has been thought of as a support tool for participatory water policies as requested by the Water Framework Directive and it aims at analyzing alternatives in production and technology, according to different market, policy and climate conditions. The tool uses data and models, provides a graphical user interface and can incorporate the decision makers' own insights. Heterogeneity in preferences is admitted since it is assumed that irrigators try to optimize personal multi-attribute utility functions, subject to a set of constraints. Consideration of agronomic and engineering aspects allows an accurate description of irrigation. Mathematical programming techniques are applied to find solutions. The program has been applied in the river Po basin (northern Italy) to analyze the impact of a pricing policy in a context of irrigation technology innovation. Water demand functions and elasticity to water price have been estimated. Results demonstrate how different areas and systems react to the same policy in quite a different way. While in the annual cropping system pricing seems effective to save the resource at the cost of impeding Water Agencies cost recovery, the same policy has an opposite effect in the perennial fruit system which shows an inelastic response to water price. The multidimensional assessment conducted clarified the trades-off among conflicting economic-social-environmental objectives, thus generating valuable information to design a more tailored mix of measures.

Structural approaches to knowledge exchange: comparing practices across five centres of excellence in public health.

PubMed

Van der Graaf, P; Francis, O; Doe, E; Barrett, E; O'Rorke, M; Docherty, G

2018-03-01

In 2008, five UKCRC Public Health Research Centres of Excellence were created to develop a coordinated approach to policy and practice engagement and knowledge exchange. The five Centres have developed their own models and practices for achieving these aims, which have not been compared in detail to date. We applied an extended version of Saner's model for the interface between science and policy to compare five case studies of knowledge exchanges, one from each centre. We compared these practices on three dimensions within our model (focus, function and type/scale) to identify barriers and facilitators for knowledge exchange. The case studies shared commonalities in their range of activities (type) but illustrated different ways of linking these activities (function). The Centres' approaches ranged from structural to more organic, and varied in the extent that they engaged internal audiences (focus). Each centre addressed policymakers at different geographical levels and scale. This article emphasizes the importance of linking a range of activities that engage policymakers at different levels, intensities and points in their decision-making processes to build relationships. Developing a structural approach to knowledge exchange activities in different contexts presents challenges of resource, implementation and evaluation.

Policy approaches to renewable energy investment in the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patt, A.; Komendantova, N.; Battaglini, A.; Lilliestam, J.; Williges, K.

2009-04-01

Europe's climate policy objective of 20% renewable energy by 2020, and the call by the IPCC to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, pose major challenges for the European Union. Several policy options are available to move towards these objectives. In this paper, we will address the most critical policy and governance issues associated with one particular approach to scaling up renewable energy resources: reliance on large-scale energy generation facilities outside the European continent, such as onshore and offshore wind farms and concentrating solar power (CSP) facilities in the Mediterranean region. Several feasibility studies completed over the past three years (German Aerospace Center 2006; German Aerospace Center 2005; Czisch, Elektrotechnik 2005, p. 488; Lorenz, Pinner, Seitz, McKinsey Quarterly 2008, p.10; German Aerospace Center 2005; Knies 2008, The Club of Rome; Khosla, Breaking the Climate Deadlock Briefing Papers, 2008, p.19) have convincingly demonstrated that large-scale wind and CSP projects ought to be very attractive for a number of reasons, including cost, reliability of power supply, and technological maturity. According to these studies it would be technically possible for Europe to rely on large-scale wind and CSP for the majority of its power needs by 2050—indeed enough to completely replace its reliance on fossil fuels for power generation—at competitive cost over its current, carbon intensive system. While it has been shown to be technically feasible to develop renewable resources in North Africa to account for a large share of Europe's energy needs, doing so would require sustained double digit rates of growth in generating and long-distance transmission capacity, and would potentially require a very different high voltage grid architecture within Europe. Doing so at a large scale could require enormous up-front investments in technical capacity, financial instruments and human resources. What are the policy instruments best suited to achieving such growth quickly and smoothly? What bottlenecks—in terms of supply chains, human capital, finance, and transmission capacity—need to be anticipated and addressed if the rate of capacity growth is to be sustained over several decades? What model of governance would create a safe investment climate in consistence with new EU legislation (i.e. EU Renewable Energy Directive) as well as expected post-Kyoto targets and mechanisms? The material that we present here is based on a series of workshops held between November 2008 and January 2009, in which a wide range of stakeholders expressed their views about the fundamental needs for policy intervention. Supplementing the results from these workshops have been additional expert interviews, and basic financial modeling. One of the interesting results from this research is the need for a multi-pronged approach. First, there is a need for a support scheme, potentially compatible with in all cases supplementing the EU REN Directive, that would create a stable market for North African electricity in Europe. Second, there is a need for policies that facilitate the formation of public private partnerships in North Africa, as the specific investment vehicle, as a way to manage some of the uncertainties associated with large-scale investments in the region. Third, attention has to be paid to the development of supply chains within the Mediterranean region, as a way of ensuring the compatibility of such investments with sustainable development.

Unintended environmental consequences and co-benefits of economic restructuring.

PubMed

Liang, Sai; Xu, Ming; Suh, Sangwon; Tan, Raymond R

2013-11-19

Current economic restructuring policies have ignored unintended environmental consequences and cobenefits, the understanding of which can provide foundations for effective policy decisions for green economy transformation. Using the input-output life cycle assessment model and taking China as an example, we find that household consumption, fixed capital formation, and export are main drivers to China's environmental impacts. At the product scale, major contributors to environmental impacts vary across different types of impacts. Stimulating the development of seven strategic emerging industries will cause unintended consequences, such as increasing nonferrous metal ore usage, terrestrial acidification, photochemical oxidant formation, human toxicity, and terrestrial ecotoxicity. Limiting the surplus outputs in the construction materials industry and metallurgy industry may only help mitigate some of the environmental impacts caused by China's regulated pollutants, with little effect on reducing other impacts, such as marine eutrophication, terrestrial acidification, photochemical oxidant formation, and particulate matter formation. However, it will bring cobenefits by simultaneously reducing mineral ore usage, human toxicity, marine ecotoxicity, and terrestrial ecotoxicity. Sustainable materials management and integrated policy modeling are possible ways for policy-making to avoid unintended consequences and effectively utilize cobenefits.

Partial validation of the Dutch model for emission and transport of nutrients (STONE).

PubMed

Overbeek, G B; Tiktak, A; Beusen, A H; van Puijenbroek, P J

2001-11-17

The Netherlands has to cope with large losses of N and P to groundwater and surface water. Agriculture is the dominant source of these nutrients, particularly with reference to nutrient excretion due to intensive animal husbandry in combination with fertilizer use. The Dutch government has recently launched a stricter eutrophication abatement policy to comply with the EC nitrate directive. The Dutch consensus model for N and P emission to groundwater and surface water (STONE) has been developed to evaluate the environmental benefits of abatement plans. Due to the possibly severe socioeconomic consequences of eutrophication abatement plans, it is of utmost importance that the model is thoroughly validated. Because STONE is applied on a nationwide scale, the model validation has also been carried out on this scale. For this purpose the model outputs were compared with lumped results from monitoring networks in the upper groundwater and in surface waters. About 13,000 recent point source observations of nitrate in the upper groundwater were available, along with several hundreds of observations showing N and P in local surface water systems. Comparison of observations from the different spatial scales available showed the issue of scale to be important. Scale issues will be addressed in the next stages of the validation study.

a Stochastic Approach to Multiobjective Optimization of Large-Scale Water Reservoir Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bottacin-Busolin, A.; Worman, A. L.

2013-12-01

A main challenge for the planning and management of water resources is the development of multiobjective strategies for operation of large-scale water reservoir networks. The optimal sequence of water releases from multiple reservoirs depends on the stochastic variability of correlated hydrologic inflows and on various processes that affect water demand and energy prices. Although several methods have been suggested, large-scale optimization problems arising in water resources management are still plagued by the high dimensional state space and by the stochastic nature of the hydrologic inflows. In this work, the optimization of reservoir operation is approached using approximate dynamic programming (ADP) with policy iteration and function approximators. The method is based on an off-line learning process in which operating policies are evaluated for a number of stochastic inflow scenarios, and the resulting value functions are used to design new, improved policies until convergence is attained. A case study is presented of a multi-reservoir system in the Dalälven River, Sweden, which includes 13 interconnected reservoirs and 36 power stations. Depending on the late spring and summer peak discharges, the lowlands adjacent to Dalälven can often be flooded during the summer period, and the presence of stagnating floodwater during the hottest months of the year is the cause of a large proliferation of mosquitos, which is a major problem for the people living in the surroundings. Chemical pesticides are currently being used as a preventive countermeasure, which do not provide an effective solution to the problem and have adverse environmental impacts. In this study, ADP was used to analyze the feasibility of alternative operating policies for reducing the flood risk at a reasonable economic cost for the hydropower companies. To this end, mid-term operating policies were derived by combining flood risk reduction with hydropower production objectives. The performance of the resulting policies was evaluated by simulating the online operating process for historical inflow scenarios and synthetic inflow forecasts. The simulations are based on a combined mid- and short-term planning model in which the value function derived in the mid-term planning phase provides the value of the policy at the end of the short-term operating horizon. While a purely deterministic linear analysis provided rather optimistic results, the stochastic model allowed for a more accurate evaluation of trade-offs and limitations of alternative operating strategies for the Dalälven reservoir network.

Impact of Federal Tax Policy on Utility-Scale Solar Deployment Given Financing Interactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Cole, Wesley; Krishnan, Venkat

In this study, the authors conducted a literature review of approaches and assumptions used by other modeling teams and consultants with respect to solar project financing; developed and incorporated an ability to model the likely financing shift away from more expensive sources of capital and toward cheaper sources as the investment tax credit declines in the ReEDS model; and used the 'before and after' versions of the ReEDS model to isolate and analyze the deployment impact of the financing shift under a range of conditions. Using ReEDS scenarios with this improved capability, we find that this 'financing' shift would softenmore » the blow of the ITC reversion; however, the overall impacts of such a shift in capital structure are estimated to be small and near-term utility-scale PV deployment is found to be much more sensitive to other factors that might drive down utility-scale PV prices.« less

Uncertainties in ecosystem service maps: a comparison on the European scale.

PubMed

Schulp, Catharina J E; Burkhard, Benjamin; Maes, Joachim; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H

2014-01-01

Safeguarding the benefits that ecosystems provide to society is increasingly included as a target in international policies. To support such policies, ecosystem service maps are made. However, there is little attention for the accuracy of these maps. We made a systematic review and quantitative comparison of ecosystem service maps on the European scale to generate insights in the uncertainty of ecosystem service maps and discuss the possibilities for quantitative validation. Maps of climate regulation and recreation were reasonably similar while large uncertainties among maps of erosion protection and flood regulation were observed. Pollination maps had a moderate similarity. Differences among the maps were caused by differences in indicator definition, level of process understanding, mapping aim, data sources and methodology. Absence of suitable observed data on ecosystem services provisioning hampers independent validation of the maps. Consequently, there are, so far, no accurate measures for ecosystem service map quality. Policy makers and other users need to be cautious when applying ecosystem service maps for decision-making. The results illustrate the need for better process understanding and data acquisition to advance ecosystem service mapping, modelling and validation.

Sharpening policy instruments with catchment evaluations and the water quality continuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, P.; Melland, A. R.; Mellander, P.-E.; Murphy, P.; Shortle, G.; Wall, D.; Mechan, S.; Shine, O.

2012-04-01

There is a scale dichotomy in water quality management in European agricultural catchments due to the fact that impacts identified at river basin scale are mitigated by management that is typically asserted from research at field or plot scale and implemented at farm scale. Evaluations of management impact are then undertaken back at the river basin scale. The policy instruments in place to mitigate water quality impacts are also based on the integration of scientific research and stakeholder negotiations and can sometimes be blunt compromises. Nevertheless, expectations of accruing water quality benefits remain high and sometimes unchallenged. Evaluating all catchment components of a pollution transfer continuum from source to impact enables important elements such as lag time between policy implementation and water quality response, water body sampling frequency and allocation of correct dose-response mechanisms to be assessed. These points are particularly important in complex agricultural catchments where multiple nutrient pollution sources have variable impacts on different water body types - and at different times of year. The tools of catchment water quality policy evaluation are diverse and include metrics of natural resource management, soil and water chemistry, hydrology, ecology and palaeolimnology. Used in combination and with river basin scale and site-specific data inventories, they can provide a powerful suite of evidence for further iterations of water quality policy and projecting realistic expectations of policy success.

Private healthcare quality: applying a SERVQUAL model.

PubMed

Butt, Mohsin Muhammad; de Run, Ernest Cyril

2010-01-01

This paper seeks to develop and test the SERVQUAL model scale for measuring Malaysian private health service quality. The study consists of 340 randomly selected participants visiting a private healthcare facility during a three-month data collection period. Data were analyzed using means, correlations, principal component and confirmatory factor analysis to establish the modified SERVQUAL scale's reliability, underlying dimensionality and convergent, discriminant validity. Results indicate a moderate negative quality gap for overall Malaysian private healthcare service quality. Results also indicate a moderate negative quality gap on each service quality scale dimension. However, scale development analysis yielded excellent results, which can be used in wider healthcare policy and practice. Respondents were skewed towards a younger population, causing concern that the results might not represent all Malaysian age groups. The study's major contribution is that it offers a way to assess private healthcare service quality. Second, it successfully develops a scale that can be used to measure health service quality in Malaysian contexts.

Long-range climate impacts on crop yield and the implications of enacting global carbon mitigation policies

EPA Science Inventory

Research on climate impacts and agriculture over the past two decades has applied simulation models at a range of scales and future climate scenarios, finding that crop growth and yield responds to changing climate conditions, and that the impacts are regional and highly depende...

Do Interim Assessments Reduce the Race and SES Achievement Gaps?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Konstantopoulos, Spyros; Li, Wei; Miller, Shazia R.; van der Ploeg, Arie

2017-01-01

The authors examined differential effects of interim assessments on minority and low socioeconomic status students' achievement in Grades K-6. They conducted a large-scale cluster randomized experiment in 2009-2010 to evaluate the impact of Indiana's policy initiative introducing interim assessments statewide. The authors used 2-level models to…

Quality Assurance in Asian Open and Distance Learning: Policies and Implementation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Darojat, Ojat; Nilson, Michelle; Kaufman, David

2015-01-01

Open universities have emerged as an innovative pillar in the expansion of access to higher education participation, with single-mode distance education providers broadening access in many countries through economies of scale supported by large enrolments. These models raise questions about the quality of education provided. This paper reports on…

Measurement and modeling of the contribution of ammonia to total nitrogen deposition from canopy to regional scale

EPA Science Inventory

In North America, ammonia (NH3) is increasingly being recognized not only for its role in atmospheric aerosol formation but also as an important component of atmospheric nitrogen deposition. This has been driven by the evolution of policies to protect ecosystems from nitrogen ov...

The Measurement and modeling of the contribution of ammonia to total nitrogen deposition from canopy to regional scale

EPA Science Inventory

In North America, ammonia (NH3) is increasingly being recognized not only for its role in atmospheric aerosol formation but also as an important component of atmospheric nitrogen deposition. This has been driven by the evolution of policies to protect ecosystems from nitrogen ov...

Knowledge and Perceived Social Norm Predict Parents' Attitudes towards Inclusive Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lui, Ming; Sin, Kuen-Fung; Yang, Lan; Forlin, Chris; Ho, Fuk-Chuen

2015-01-01

Parents are key stakeholders in education and their support is pivotal to policy implementation. Through a large-scale survey, the present study investigated the validity of a structural model describing the relationship between attitude, knowledge, and perceived social norm among parents of children with special needs. Results revealed that…

FULL-SCALE DEMONSTRATION OF IN SITU COMETABOLIC BIODEGRADATION OF TRICHLOROETHYLENE IN GROUNDWATER, 2: COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF FIELD DATA USING REACTIVE TRANSPORT MODELING. (R828772)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

PubMed

Ndeffo Mbah, Martial L; Gilligan, Christopher A

2011-01-01

Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection) while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment). For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

Projecting the impact of regional land-use change and water management policies on lake water quality: an application to periurban lakes and reservoirs.

PubMed

Catherine, Arnaud; Mouillot, David; Maloufi, Selma; Troussellier, Marc; Bernard, Cécile

2013-01-01

As the human population grows, the demand for living space and supplies of resources also increases, which may induce rapid change in land-use/land-cover (LULC) and associated pressures exerted on aquatic habitats. We propose a new approach to forecast the impact of regional land cover change and water management policies (i.e., targets in nutrient loads reduction) on lake and reservoir water eutrophication status using a model that requires minimal parameterisation compared with alternative methods. This approach was applied to a set of 48 periurban lakes located in the Ile de France region (IDF, France) to simulate catchment-scale management scenarios. Model outputs were subsequently compared to governmental agencies' 2030 forecasts. Our model indicated that the efforts made to reduce pressure in the catchment of seepage lakes might be expected to be proportional to the gain that might be obtained, whereas drainage lakes will display little improvement until a critical level of pressure reduction is reached. The model also indicated that remediation measures, as currently planned by governmental agencies, might only have a marginal impact on improving the eutrophication status of lakes and reservoirs within the IDF region. Despite the commitment to appropriately managing the water resources in many countries, prospective tools to evaluate the potential impacts of global change on freshwater ecosystems integrity at medium to large spatial scales are lacking. This study proposes a new approach to investigate the impact of region-scale human-driven changes on lake and reservoir ecological status and could be implemented elsewhere with limited parameterisation. Issues are discussed that relate to model uncertainty and to its relevance as a tool applied to decision-making.

Projecting the Impact of Regional Land-Use Change and Water Management Policies on Lake Water Quality: An Application to Periurban Lakes and Reservoirs

PubMed Central

Catherine, Arnaud; Mouillot, David; Maloufi, Selma; Troussellier, Marc; Bernard, Cécile

2013-01-01

As the human population grows, the demand for living space and supplies of resources also increases, which may induce rapid change in land-use/land-cover (LULC) and associated pressures exerted on aquatic habitats. We propose a new approach to forecast the impact of regional land cover change and water management policies (i.e., targets in nutrient loads reduction) on lake and reservoir water eutrophication status using a model that requires minimal parameterisation compared with alternative methods. This approach was applied to a set of 48 periurban lakes located in the Ile de France region (IDF, France) to simulate catchment-scale management scenarios. Model outputs were subsequently compared to governmental agencies’ 2030 forecasts. Our model indicated that the efforts made to reduce pressure in the catchment of seepage lakes might be expected to be proportional to the gain that might be obtained, whereas drainage lakes will display little improvement until a critical level of pressure reduction is reached. The model also indicated that remediation measures, as currently planned by governmental agencies, might only have a marginal impact on improving the eutrophication status of lakes and reservoirs within the IDF region. Despite the commitment to appropriately managing the water resources in many countries, prospective tools to evaluate the potential impacts of global change on freshwater ecosystems integrity at medium to large spatial scales are lacking. This study proposes a new approach to investigate the impact of region-scale human-driven changes on lake and reservoir ecological status and could be implemented elsewhere with limited parameterisation. Issues are discussed that relate to model uncertainty and to its relevance as a tool applied to decision-making. PMID:23991066

Three essays on decision-making in energy policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wendling, Zachary Ann

This dissertation examines three issues surrounding decision-making in energy policy. Over the past decade, technological advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have allowed the economical extraction of natural gas and petroleum from shale basins. Thus far, natural gas has been produced from shale at a commercial scale only in certain American States and Canadian Provinces, though potential shale plays exist elsewhere in North America and the world. Whether, how, and to what extent SGD diffuses to new shale basins and jurisdictions will depend on several questions about energy policy. The first chapter examines the potential for SGD in the European Union. Among EU institutions, the European Parliament has been the strongest proponent for regulation of SGD, preferring a balance between environmental protection and opportunities for economic development, energy security, and climate mitigation. Analysis of roll call voting on SGD in the Seventh European Parliament shows that ideological preferences are the primary explanation of voting behavior, followed by national interests in decarbonization. Prospects for further regulatory action are discussed. ? The second chapter takes a closer look at the potential of shale gas to facilitate decarbonization in the electricity sector. Proponents of SGD have claimed that high carbon fossil fuels can be immediately phased out and replaced in the short term by power plants that burn cheap, abundant natural gas, which emits half the greenhouse gasses over a well-to-wire life cycle. A value of information analysis examines the conditions under which this may be so and quantifies how valuable it would be to have perfect information about uncertain parameters in a cost function characterizing the global electricity sector. The third chapter is describes a new tool of policy analysis, the Indiana Scalable Energy-Economy Model (IN-SEEM). State and local governments have played an increasing role in energy and climate policy in the United States and abroad, yet few models can capture the policy impacts at finer geographic scales. Having such tools is essential for local stakeholders as they contemplate energy options such as SGD. This chapter explains the development, performance, and usefulness of IN-SEEM in answering policy questions.

“Nitrogen Budgets for the Mississippi River Basin using the ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Presentation on the results from the 3 linked models, EPIC (USDA), CMAQ and NEWS to analyze a scenario of increased corn production related to biofuels together with Clean Air Act emission reductions across the US and the resultant effect on nitrogen loading to the Gulf of Mexico from the Mississippi River Basin. This is a demonstration of a capability to connect the N cascade bringing air, land, water together. EPIC = Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model, CMAQ = Community Multiscale Air Quality model, NEWS = Nutrient Export of WaterSheds model. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being used by EPA, NOAA, and the air pollution community in understanding and forecasting not only the magnitude of the air pollution problem, but also in developing emission control policies and regulations for air quality improvements.

Use of Participatory Systems Dynamics Modelling to Generate User-Friendly Decision Support Systems for the Design of Management Policies for Complex Human-Environmental Systems: A Case Study from the Varied Socio-environmental Landscape of Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malard, J. J.; Baig, A. I.; Carrera, J.; Mellini, L.; Pineda, P.; Monterroso, O.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.; Adamowski, J. F.; Halbe, J.; Monardes, H.; Gálvez, J.

2014-12-01

The design of effective management policies for socioenvironmental systems requires the development of comprehensive, yet sufficiently simple, decision support systems (DSS) for policy makers. Guatemala is a particularly complex case, combining an enormous diversity of climates, geographies, and agroecosystems within a very small geographical scale. Although food insecurity levels are very high, indicating a generally inadequate management of the varied agroecosystems of the country, different regions have shown vastly different trends in food insecurity over the past decade, including between regions with similar geophysical and climatic characteristics and/or governmental programmes (e.g., agricultural support). These observations suggest two important points: firstly, that not merely environmental conditions but rather socio-environmental interactions play a crucial role in the successful management of human-environmental systems, and, secondly, that differences in the geophysical and climatic environments between the diverse regions significantly impact the success or failure of policies. This research uses participatory systems dynamic modelling (SDM) to build a DSS that allows local decision-makers to (1) determine the impact of current and potential policies on agroecosystem management and food security, and (2) design sustainable and resilient policies for the future. The use of participatory SDM offers several benefits, including the active involvement of the end recipients in the development of the model, greatly increasing its acceptability; the integration of physical (e.g., precipitation, crop yield) and social components in one model; adequacy for modelling long-term trends in response to particular policy decisions; and the inclusion of local stakeholder knowledge on system structure and trends through the participatory process. Preliminary results suggest that there is a set of common variables explaining the generally high levels of food insecurity in Guatemala (e.g., agricultural productivity), while others (e.g., land dynamics and access to water resources) are restricted to certain regions and have a relatively important weight in determining the success or failure of policies in these regions.

A general health policy model: update and applications.

PubMed Central

Kaplan, R M; Anderson, J P

1988-01-01

This article describes the development of a General Health Policy Model that can be used for program evaluation, population monitoring, clinical research, and policy analysis. An important component of the model, the Quality of Well-being scale (QWB) combines preference-weighted measures of symptoms and functioning to provide a numerical point-in-time expression of well-being, ranging from 0 for death to 1.0 for asymptomatic optimum functioning. The level of wellness at particular points in time is governed by the prognosis (transition rates or probabilities) generated by the underlying disease or injury under different treatment (control) variables. Well-years result from integrating the level of wellness, or health-related quality of life, over the life expectancy. Several issues relevant to the application of the model are discussed. It is suggested that a quality of life measure need not have separate components for social and mental health. Social health has been difficult to define; social support may be a poor criterion for resource allocation; and some evidence suggests that aspects of mental health are captured by the general measure. Although it has been suggested that measures of child health should differ from those used for adults, we argue that a separate conceptualization of child health creates new problems for policy analysis. After offering several applications of the model for the evaluation of prevention programs, we conclude that many of the advantages of general measures have been overlooked and should be given serious consideration in future studies. PMID:3384669

Land-Use Impacts on the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle: An Integrative Tool for Resource Assessment and Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, B. M.; Liu, J.; Zhu, Z.; Hawbaker, T. J.

2014-12-01

Human land use and natural processes contribute to the ability of ecosystems to store and sequester carbon and offset greenhouse gas emissions. Changes in land use (e.g. agricultural cultivation, timber harvest, urban development, and other land management strategies) and natural processes (e.g. climate, wildfire, disease, storm, and insect outbreak) drive the dynamics of ecosystem carbon pools. These carbon dynamics operate at different spatial and temporal scales, making it challenging to track the changes in a single integrative framework. Landowners, managers, and policy makers require data, information, and tools on the relative contributions of these drivers of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes in order to evaluate alternative policies and management strategies designed to increase carbon storage and sequestration. In this paper we explore preliminary results from efforts to simulate changes in ecosystem carbon at ecoregional scales, resulting from anthropogenic land use, wildfire, natural vegetation change, and climate variability under a range of future conditions coherent with a range of global change scenarios. Simulations track the fate of carbon across several pools, including living biomass, deadwood, litter, soil, and wood products. Carbon fluxes are estimated based on simulations from the Integrated Biosphere Simulator model (IBIS). Downscaled land-use projections from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways drive changes in land use, along with extrapolations based on local-scale data. We discuss the sensitivity of the model to individual drivers, and the overall uncertainty associated with the wide range of scenario projections, as well as explore alternative policy and management outcomes and their ability to increase carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems.

Air quality management: evolution of policy and practice in the UK as exemplified by the experience of English local government

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beattie, C. I.; Longhurst, J. W. S.; Woodfield, N. K.

The air quality management (AQM) framework in the UK is designed to be an effects-based solution to air pollutants currently affecting human health. The AQM process has been legislated through The Environment Act 1995, which required the National Air Quality Strategy (NAQS) to be published. AQM practice and capability within local authorities has flourished since the publication of the NAQS in March 1997. This paper outlines the policy framework within which the UK operates, both at a domestic and European level, and reviews the air quality management process relating to current UK policy and EU policy. Data from questionnaire surveys are used to indicate the involvement of various sectors of local government in the air quality management process. These data indicate an increasing use of monitoring, and use of air dispersion modelling by English local authorities. Data relating to the management of air quality, for example, the existence and work of air quality groups, dissemination of information to the public and policy measures in place on a local scale to improve air quality, have also been reported. The UK NAQS has been reviewed in 1999 to reflect developments in European legislation, technological and scientific advances, improved air pollution modelling techniques and an increasingly better understanding of the socio-economic issues involved. The AQM process, as implemented by UK local authorities, provides an effective model for other European member states with regards to the implementation of the Air Quality Framework Directive. The future direction of air quality policy in the UK is also discussed.

Drug offence sentencing practices in the United States of America.

PubMed

Weissman, J C

1984-01-01

The United States criminal justice system, in response to a variety of risks, makes available a range of options to help control drug offenders. Pre-arrest diversion, pre-trial diversion, pre-trial release, probation, split sentencing, warn release, incarceration and parole release are alternative dispositions involving a graduated scale of punishment, incarceration, specific deterrence and rehabilitation. New drug offence sentencing policies are emerging within the criminal justice system. Traditional values of rehabilitation are currently less favoured and contemporary doctrines advocate sentencing based on principles of uniformity and retribution. Drug law sentencing practices are a principal concern of this article and the major policy themes are systematically reviewed. Diversion, criminal responsibility, selective incapacitation, trafficking, and cocaine abuse are examined. Guidelines for policy development are recommended and the analysis covers the related concepts of sentencing ideology, decriminalization, and determinate sentencing models. Specific recommendations are offered for revision of drug offence sentencing policies to incorporate the emerging penal values.

Feedback control policies employed by people using intracortical brain-computer interfaces.

PubMed

Willett, Francis R; Pandarinath, Chethan; Jarosiewicz, Beata; Murphy, Brian A; Memberg, William D; Blabe, Christine H; Saab, Jad; Walter, Benjamin L; Sweet, Jennifer A; Miller, Jonathan P; Henderson, Jaimie M; Shenoy, Krishna V; Simeral, John D; Hochberg, Leigh R; Kirsch, Robert F; Ajiboye, A Bolu

2017-02-01

When using an intracortical BCI (iBCI), users modulate their neural population activity to move an effector towards a target, stop accurately, and correct for movement errors. We call the rules that govern this modulation a 'feedback control policy'. A better understanding of these policies may inform the design of higher-performing neural decoders. We studied how three participants in the BrainGate2 pilot clinical trial used an iBCI to control a cursor in a 2D target acquisition task. Participants used a velocity decoder with exponential smoothing dynamics. Through offline analyses, we characterized the users' feedback control policies by modeling their neural activity as a function of cursor state and target position. We also tested whether users could adapt their policy to different decoder dynamics by varying the gain (speed scaling) and temporal smoothing parameters of the iBCI. We demonstrate that control policy assumptions made in previous studies do not fully describe the policies of our participants. To account for these discrepancies, we propose a new model that captures (1) how the user's neural population activity gradually declines as the cursor approaches the target from afar, then decreases more sharply as the cursor comes into contact with the target, (2) how the user makes constant feedback corrections even when the cursor is on top of the target, and (3) how the user actively accounts for the cursor's current velocity to avoid overshooting the target. Further, we show that users can adapt their control policy to decoder dynamics by attenuating neural modulation when the cursor gain is high and by damping the cursor velocity more strongly when the smoothing dynamics are high. Our control policy model may help to build better decoders, understand how neural activity varies during active iBCI control, and produce better simulations of closed-loop iBCI movements.

Climate Change, Hydrology and Landscapes of America's Heartland: A Coupled Natural-Human System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lant, C.; Misgna, G.; Secchi, S.; Schoof, J. T.

2012-12-01

This paper will present a methodological overview of an NSF-funded project under the Coupled Natural and Human System program. Climate change, coupled with variations and changes in economic and policy environments and agricultural techniques, will alter the landscape of the U.S. Midwest. Assessing the effects of these changes on watersheds, and thus on water quantity, water quality, and agricultural production, entails modeling a coupled natural-human system capable of answering research questions such as: (1) How will the climate of the U.S. Midwest change through the remainder of the 21st Century? (2) How will climate change, together with changing markets and policies, affect land use patterns at various scales, from the U.S. Midwest, to agricultural regions, to watersheds, to farms and fields? (3) Under what policies and prices does landscape change induced by climate change generate a positive or a negative feedback through changes in carbon storage, evapotranspiration, and albedo? (4) Will climate change expand or diminish the agricultural production and ecosystem service generation capacities of specific watersheds? Such research can facilitate early adaptation and make a timely contribution to the successful integration of agricultural, environmental, and trade policy. Rural landscapes behave as a system through a number of feedback mechanisms: climatic, agro-technology, market, and policy. Methods, including agent-based modeling, SWAT modeling, map algebra using logistic regression, and genetic algorithms for analyzing each of these feedback mechanisms will be described. Selected early results that link sub-system models and incorporate critical feedbacks will also be presented.igure 1. Overall Modeling framework for Climate Change, Hydrology and Landscapes of America's Heartland.

Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

DOE PAGES

Castruccio, Stefano; McInerney, David J.; Stein, Michael L.; ...

2014-02-24

The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as patternmore » scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. In conclusion, it may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.« less

Soil organic carbon across scales.

PubMed

O'Rourke, Sharon M; Angers, Denis A; Holden, Nicholas M; McBratney, Alex B

2015-10-01

Mechanistic understanding of scale effects is important for interpreting the processes that control the global carbon cycle. Greater attention should be given to scale in soil organic carbon (SOC) science so that we can devise better policy to protect/enhance existing SOC stocks and ensure sustainable use of soils. Global issues such as climate change require consideration of SOC stock changes at the global and biosphere scale, but human interaction occurs at the landscape scale, with consequences at the pedon, aggregate and particle scales. This review evaluates our understanding of SOC across all these scales in the context of the processes involved in SOC cycling at each scale and with emphasis on stabilizing SOC. Current synergy between science and policy is explored at each scale to determine how well each is represented in the management of SOC. An outline of how SOC might be integrated into a framework of soil security is examined. We conclude that SOC processes at the biosphere to biome scales are not well understood. Instead, SOC has come to be viewed as a large-scale pool subjects to carbon flux. Better understanding exists for SOC processes operating at the scales of the pedon, aggregate and particle. At the landscape scale, the influence of large- and small-scale processes has the greatest interaction and is exposed to the greatest modification through agricultural management. Policy implemented at regional or national scale tends to focus at the landscape scale without due consideration of the larger scale factors controlling SOC or the impacts of policy for SOC at the smaller SOC scales. What is required is a framework that can be integrated across a continuum of scales to optimize SOC management. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fishing Farmers or Farming Fishers? Fishing Typology of Inland Small-Scale Fishing Households and Fisheries Management in Singkarak Lake, West Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuerlita; Perret, Sylvain Roger; Shivakoti, Ganesh P.

2013-07-01

Technical and socio-economic characteristics are known to determine different types of fishers and their livelihood strategies. Faced with declining fish and water resources, small-scale fisheries engage into transformations in livelihood and fishing practices. The paper is an attempt to understand these changes and their socio-economic patterns, in the case of Singkarak Lake in West Sumatra, Indonesia. Based upon the hypothesis that riparian communities have diverse, complex yet structured and dynamic livelihood systems, the paper's main objective is to study, document and model the actual diversity in livelihood, practices and performance of inland small-scale fisheries along the Singkarak Lake, to picture how households are adapted to the situation, and propose an updated, workable model (typology) of those for policy. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to develop a typology of fishing households. The results show that small-scale fishers can be classified into different types characterized by distinct livelihood strategies. Three household types are identified, namely "farming fishers" households (type I, 30 %), "fishing farmers" households (type II, 30 %), and "mainly fishers" households (type III, 40 %). There are significant differences among these groups in the number of boats owned, annual fishing income, agriculture income and farming experience. Type I consists of farming fishers, well equipped, with high fishing costs and income, yet with the lowest return on fishing assets. They are also landowners with farming income, showing the lowest return on land capital. Type II includes poor fishing farmers, landowners with higher farming income; they show the highest return on land asset. They have less fishing equipment, costs and income. Type III (mainly fishers) consists of poorer, younger fishers, with highest return on fishing assets and on fishing costs. They have little land, low farming income, and diversified livelihood sources. The nature of their livelihood strategies is discussed for each identified group. This helps to understand the complexity and diversity of small-scale fishers, particularly in the study area which is still poorly known. This paper concludes with policy implication and possible management initiatives for environmentally prudent policy aiming at improvement of fishers' livelihood.

Fishing farmers or farming fishers? Fishing typology of inland small-scale fishing households and fisheries management in singkarak lake, west sumatra, indonesia.

PubMed

Yuerlita; Perret, Sylvain Roger; Shivakoti, Ganesh P

2013-07-01

Technical and socio-economic characteristics are known to determine different types of fishers and their livelihood strategies. Faced with declining fish and water resources, small-scale fisheries engage into transformations in livelihood and fishing practices. The paper is an attempt to understand these changes and their socio-economic patterns, in the case of Singkarak Lake in West Sumatra, Indonesia. Based upon the hypothesis that riparian communities have diverse, complex yet structured and dynamic livelihood systems, the paper's main objective is to study, document and model the actual diversity in livelihood, practices and performance of inland small-scale fisheries along the Singkarak Lake, to picture how households are adapted to the situation, and propose an updated, workable model (typology) of those for policy. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to develop a typology of fishing households. The results show that small-scale fishers can be classified into different types characterized by distinct livelihood strategies. Three household types are identified, namely "farming fishers" households (type I, 30 %), "fishing farmers" households (type II, 30 %), and "mainly fishers" households (type III, 40 %). There are significant differences among these groups in the number of boats owned, annual fishing income, agriculture income and farming experience. Type I consists of farming fishers, well equipped, with high fishing costs and income, yet with the lowest return on fishing assets. They are also landowners with farming income, showing the lowest return on land capital. Type II includes poor fishing farmers, landowners with higher farming income; they show the highest return on land asset. They have less fishing equipment, costs and income. Type III (mainly fishers) consists of poorer, younger fishers, with highest return on fishing assets and on fishing costs. They have little land, low farming income, and diversified livelihood sources. The nature of their livelihood strategies is discussed for each identified group. This helps to understand the complexity and diversity of small-scale fishers, particularly in the study area which is still poorly known. This paper concludes with policy implication and possible management initiatives for environmentally prudent policy aiming at improvement of fishers' livelihood.

Climate change, resource use and food security in midcentury under a range of plausible scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiebe, K.

2016-12-01

Achieving and maintaining food security at local, national and global scales is challenged by changes in population, income and climate, among other socioeconomic and biophysical drivers. Assessing these challenges and possible solutions over the coming decades requires a systematic and multidisciplinary approach. The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight program, a CGIAR initiative led by the International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the 14 other CGIAR research centers, is working to improve tools and conduct ex ante assessments of promising technologies, investments and policies under alternative global futures to inform decision making in the CGIAR and its partners. Alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios are explored using an integrated system of climate, water, crop and economic models. This presentation will share findings from recent projections of food production and prices to 2050 at global and regional scales, together with their potential implications for land and water use, food security, nutrition and health.

Learning Across Time Scales: Science, Policy, Management, and Communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, M. M.

2002-05-01

This presentation will draw together common themes raised in the session and discuss lessons learned across time scales and their implications for managers and policy makers concerned with both climate change and variability. Session themes will be examined in the context of the upcoming World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) and considered as opportunities for linking climate change policy discussions with lessons learned from the study of adaptation on seasonal to interannual time scales. The presentation will raise questions about future research directions, discuss recommendations for promoting learning across time scales, and explore options for better communicating the links between climate change and variability.

A multi-scale methodology for comparing GCM and RCM results over the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuels, Rana; Krichak, Simon; Breitgand, Joseph; Alpert, Pinhas

2010-05-01

The importance of skillful climate modeling is increasingly being realized as results are being incorporated into environmental, economic, and even business planning. Global circulation models (GCMs) employed by the IPCC provide results at spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers, which is useful for understanding global trends but not appropriate for use as input into regional and local impacts models used to inform policy and development. To address this shortcoming, regional climate models (RCMs) which dynamically downscale the results of the GCMs are used. In this study we present first results of a dynamically downscaled RCM focusing on the Eastern Mediterranean region. For the historical 1960-2000 time period, results at a spatial scale of both 25 km and 50 km are compared with historical station data from 5 locations across Israel as well as with the results of 3 GCM models (ECHAM5, NOAA GFDL, and CCCMA) at annual, monthly and daily time scales. Results from a recently completed Japanese GCM at a spatial scale of 20 km are also included. For the historical validation period, we show that as spatial scale increases the skill in capturing annual and inter-annual temperature and rainfall also increases. However, for intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics important for hydrological and agricultural planning (eg. dry and wet spells, number of rain days) the GCM results (including the 20 km Japanese model) capture the historical trends better than the dynamically downscaled RegCM. For future scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes, we compare results across the models for the available time periods, generating a range of future trends.

Multi-dimension and Comprehensive Assessment on the Utilizing and Sharing of Regional Large-Scale Scientific Equipment

PubMed Central

Li, Chen; Yongbo, Lv; Chi, Chen

2015-01-01

Based on the data from 30 provincial regions in China, an assessment and empirical analysis was carried out on the utilizing and sharing of the large-scale scientific equipment with a comprehensive assessment model established on the three dimensions, namely, equipment, utilization and sharing. The assessment results were interpreted in light of relevant policies. The results showed that on the whole, the overall development level in the provincial regions in eastern and central China is higher than that in western China. This is mostly because of the large gap among the different provincial regions with respect to the equipped level. But in terms of utilizing and sharing, some of the Western provincial regions, such as Ningxia, perform well, which is worthy of our attention. Policy adjustment targeting at the differentiation, elevation of the capacity of the equipment management personnel, perfection of the sharing and cooperation platform, and the promotion of the establishment of open sharing funds, are all important measures to promote the utilization and sharing of the large-scale scientific equipment and to narrow the gap among different regions. PMID:25937850

Low order climate models as a tool for cross-disciplinary collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newton, R.; Pfirman, S. L.; Tremblay, B.; Schlosser, P.

2014-12-01

Human impacts on climate are pervasive and significant and project future states cannot be projected without taking human influence into account. We recently helped convene a meeting of climatologists, policy analysts, lawyers and social scientists to discuss the dramatic loss in Arctic summer sea ice. A dialogue emerged around distinct time scales in the integrated human/natural climate system. Climate scientists tended to discuss engineering solutions as though they could be implemented immediately, whereas lags of 2 or more decades were estimated by social scientists for societal shifts and similar lags were cited for deployment by the engineers. Social scientists tended to project new climate states virtually overnight, while climatologists described time scales of decades to centuries for the system to respond to changes in forcing functions. For the conversation to develop, the group had to come to grips with an increasingly complex set of transient effect time scales and lags between decisions, changes in forcing, and system outputs. We use several low-order dynamical system models to explore mismatched timescales, ranges of lags, and uncertainty in cost estimates on climate outcomes, focusing on Arctic-specific issues. In addition to lessons regarding what is/isn't feasible from a policy and engineering perspective, these models provide a useful tool to concretize cross-disciplinary thinking. They are fast and easy to iterate through a large region of the problem space, while including surprising complexity in their evolution. Thus they are appropriate for investigating the implications of policy in an efficient, but not unrealistic physical setting. (Earth System Models, by contrast, can be too resource- and time-intensive for iteratively testing "what if" scenarios in cross-disciplinary collaborations.) Our runs indicate, for example, that the combined social, engineering and climate physics lags make it extremely unlikely that an ice-free summer ecology in the Arctic can be avoided. Further, if prospective remediation strategies are successful, a return to perennial ice conditions between one and two centuries from now is entirely likely, with interesting and large impacts on Northern economies.

Creating Meaningful Change in Education: A Cascading Logic Model. Scaling-Up Brief. Number 6

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blase, Karen; Fixsen, Dean; Jackson, Kathleen Ryan

2015-01-01

Creating meaningful change in a state's education system from the capitol to the classroom is complex and challenging work. Over the past several decades, considerable research, policy, and funding have focused on the use of evidence-based programs (EBP) in schools. However, these practices only are effective when fully and effectively implemented…

A Landscape Model (LEEMATH) to Evaluate Effects of Management Impacts on Timber and Wildlife Habitat

Treesearch

Harbin Li; David L. Gartner; Pu Mou; Carl C. Trettin

2000-01-01

Managing forest resources for sustainability requires the successful integration of economic and ecological goals. To attain such integration, land managers need decision support tools that incorporate science, land-use strategies, and policy options to assess resources sustainability at large scales. Landscape Evaluation of Effects of Management Activities on Timber...

Confronting challenges to economic analysis of biological invasions in forests

Treesearch

Thomas P Holmes

2010-01-01

Biological invasions of forests by non-indigenous organisms present a complex, persistent, and largely irreversible threat to forest ecosystems around the globe. Rigorous assessments of the economic impacts of introduced species, at a national scale, are needed to provide credible information to policy makers. It is proposed here that microeconomic models of damage due...

Reconstructing Language Policy in Urban Education: The Essen Model of "Förderunterricht"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Möllering, Martina; Benholz, Claudia; Mavruk, Gülsah

2014-01-01

This contribution traces the development of an educational support program ("Förderunterricht") for immigrant children in the German Ruhr area, a region that has traditionally been strongly impacted by different waves of immigration. The program has grown out of what was originally a small-scale application of research results of a study…

Measuring public opinion on alcohol policy: a factor analytic study of a US probability sample.

PubMed

Latimer, William W; Harwood, Eileen M; Newcomb, Michael D; Wagenaar, Alexander C

2003-03-01

Public opinion has been one factor affecting change in policies designed to reduce underage alcohol use. Extant research, however, has been criticized for using single survey items of unknown reliability to define adult attitudes on alcohol policy issues. The present investigation addresses a critical gap in the literature by deriving scales on public attitudes, knowledge, and concerns pertinent to alcohol policies designed to reduce underage drinking using a US probability sample survey of 7021 adults. Five attitudinal scales were derived from exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses addressing policies to: (1) regulate alcohol marketing, (2) regulate alcohol consumption in public places, (3) regulate alcohol distribution, (4) increase alcohol taxes, and (5) regulate youth access. The scales exhibited acceptable psychometric properties and were largely consistent with a rational framework which guided the survey construction.

MoGIRE: A Model for Integrated Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynaud, A.; Leenhardt, D.

2008-12-01

Climate change and growing water needs have resulted in many parts of the world in water scarcity problems that must by managed by public authorities. Hence, policy-makers are more and more often asked to define and to implement water allocation rules between competitive users. This requires to develop new tools aiming at designing those rules for various scenarios of context (climatic, agronomic, economic). If models have been developed for each type of water use however, very few integrated frameworks link these different uses, while such an integrated approach is a relevant stake for designing regional water and land policies. The lack of such integrated models can be explained by the difficulty of integrating models developed by very different disciplines and by the problem of scale change (collecting data on large area, arbitrate between the computational tractability of models and their level of aggregation). However, modelers are more and more asked to deal with large basin scales while analyzing some policy impacts at very high detailed levels. These contradicting objectives require to develop new modeling tools. The CALVIN economically-driven optimization model developed for managing water in California is a good example of this type of framework, Draper et al. (2003). Recent reviews of the literature on integrated water management at the basin level include Letcher et al. (2007) or Cai (2008). We present here an original framework for integrated water management at the river basin scale called MoGIRE ("Modèle pour la Gestion Intégrée de la Ressource en Eau"). It is intended to optimize water use at the river basin level and to evaluate scenarios (agronomic, climatic or economic) for a better planning of agricultural and non-agricultural water use. MoGIRE includes a nodal representation of the water network. Agricultural, urban and environmental water uses are also represented using mathematical programming and econometric approaches. The model then optimizes at each date (10 days step) the allocation of water across agricultural and urban water demands in order to maximize the social surplus derived from water consumption given the constraints imposed by the water network. An application of the model is proposed for the Neste system located in South-West of France. 67 regions competing for water allocation have been identified in the Neste system. Those regions are characterized by specific cropping systems, specific climate and soil characteristics and by their connections to the water network. The model, including the nodal representation of the water network, has been coded using the algebraic modeling language GAMS. We are currently analyzing the robustness of the approach through scenario testing. Keywords : Integrated water management, optimization-simulation model, agronomic-economic modeling, river basin.

A Policy-Driven Large Scale Ecological Restoration: Quantifying Ecosystem Services Changes in the Loess Plateau of China

Treesearch

Yihe Lu; Bojie Fu; Xiaoming Feng; Yuan Zeng; Yu Liu; Ruiying Chang; Ge Sun; Bingfang Wu

2012-01-01

As one of the key tools for regulating human-ecosystem relations, environmental conservation policies can promote ecological rehabilitation across a variety of spatiotemporal scales. However, quantifying the ecological effects of such policies at the regional level is difficult. A case study was conducted at the regional level in the ecologically vulnerable region of...

Education for Y'All: Global Neoliberalism and the Case for a Politics of Scale in Sustainability Education Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McKenzie, Marcia

2012-01-01

This article addresses the effects of neoliberalism as it operates through global and local educational policy, and in particular in relation to the United Nations' Education for Sustainable Development initiatives. It examines how a politics of scale is necessary in enabling critique and in rearticulating forms of education policy-making and…

Western Lake Erie Basin: Soft-data-constrained, NHDPlus resolution watershed modeling and exploration of applicable conservation scenarios.

PubMed

Yen, Haw; White, Michael J; Arnold, Jeffrey G; Keitzer, S Conor; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V; Atwood, Jay D; Daggupati, Prasad; Herbert, Matthew E; Sowa, Scott P; Ludsin, Stuart A; Robertson, Dale M; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Rewa, Charles A

2016-11-01

Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relationships between land use and water, nutrient, and sediment dynamics. This manuscript evaluated the capacity of the current Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict hydrological and water quality processes within WLEB at the finest resolution watershed boundary unit (NHDPlus) along with the current conditions and conservation scenarios. The process based SWAT model was capable of the fine-scale computation and complex routing used in this project, as indicated by measured data at five gaging stations. The level of detail required for fine-scale spatial simulation made the use of both hard and soft data necessary in model calibration, alongside other model adaptations. Limitations to the model's predictive capacity were due to a paucity of data in the region at the NHDPlus scale rather than due to SWAT functionality. Results of treatment scenarios demonstrate variable effects of structural practices and nutrient management on sediment and nutrient loss dynamics. Targeting treatment to acres with critical outstanding conservation needs provides the largest return on investment in terms of nutrient loss reduction per dollar spent, relative to treating acres with lower inherent nutrient loss vulnerabilities. Importantly, this research raises considerations about use of models to guide land management decisions at very fine spatial scales. Decision makers using these results should be aware of data limitations that hinder fine-scale model interpretation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Western Lake Erie Basin: Soft-data-constrained, NHDPlus resolution watershed modeling and exploration of applicable conservation scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yen, Haw; White, Michael J.; Arnold, Jeffrey G.; Keitzer, S. Conor; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V; Atwood, Jay D.; Daggupati, Prasad; Herbert, Matthew E.; Sowa, Scott P.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Robertson, Dale M.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Rewa, Charles A.

2016-01-01

Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relationships between land use and water, nutrient, and sediment dynamics. This manuscript evaluated the capacity of the current Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT2012) to predict hydrological and water quality processes within WLEB at the finest resolution watershed boundary unit (NHDPlus) along with the current conditions and conservation scenarios. The process based SWAT model was capable of the fine-scale computation and complex routing used in this project, as indicated by measured data at five gaging stations. The level of detail required for fine-scale spatial simulation made the use of both hard and soft data necessary in model calibration, alongside other model adaptations. Limitations to the model's predictive capacity were due to a paucity of data in the region at the NHDPlus scale rather than due to SWAT functionality. Results of treatment scenarios demonstrate variable effects of structural practices and nutrient management on sediment and nutrient loss dynamics. Targeting treatment to acres with critical outstanding conservation needs provides the largest return on investment in terms of nutrient loss reduction per dollar spent, relative to treating acres with lower inherent nutrient loss vulnerabilities. Importantly, this research raises considerations about use of models to guide land management decisions at very fine spatial scales. Decision makers using these results should be aware of data limitations that hinder fine-scale model interpretation.

Predicting Bison Migration out of Yellowstone National Park Using Bayesian Models

PubMed Central

Geremia, Chris; White, P. J.; Wallen, Rick L.; Watson, Fred G. R.; Treanor, John J.; Borkowski, John; Potter, Christopher S.; Crabtree, Robert L.

2011-01-01

Long distance migrations by ungulate species often surpass the boundaries of preservation areas where conflicts with various publics lead to management actions that can threaten populations. We chose the partially migratory bison (Bison bison) population in Yellowstone National Park as an example of integrating science into management policies to better conserve migratory ungulates. Approximately 60% of these bison have been exposed to bovine brucellosis and thousands of migrants exiting the park boundary have been culled during the past two decades to reduce the risk of disease transmission to cattle. Data were assimilated using models representing competing hypotheses of bison migration during 1990–2009 in a hierarchal Bayesian framework. Migration differed at the scale of herds, but a single unifying logistic model was useful for predicting migrations by both herds. Migration beyond the northern park boundary was affected by herd size, accumulated snow water equivalent, and aboveground dried biomass. Migration beyond the western park boundary was less influenced by these predictors and process model performance suggested an important control on recent migrations was excluded. Simulations of migrations over the next decade suggest that allowing increased numbers of bison beyond park boundaries during severe climate conditions may be the only means of avoiding episodic, large-scale reductions to the Yellowstone bison population in the foreseeable future. This research is an example of how long distance migration dynamics can be incorporated into improved management policies. PMID:21340035

Scaling up cervical cancer screening in the midst of human papillomavirus vaccination advocacy in Thailand.

PubMed

Yothasamut, Jomkwan; Putchong, Choenkwan; Sirisamutr, Teera; Teerawattananon, Yot; Tantivess, Sripen

2010-07-02

Screening tests for cervical cancer are effective in reducing the disease burden. In Thailand, a Pap smear program has been implemented throughout the country for 40 years. In 2008 the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) unexpectedly decided to scale up the coverage of free cervical cancer screening services, to meet an ambitious target. This study analyzes the processes and factors that drove this policy innovation in the area of cervical cancer control in Thailand. In-depth interviews with key policy actors and review of relevant documents were conducted in 2009. Data analysis was guided by a framework, developed on public policy models and existing literature on scaling-up health care interventions. Between 2006 and 2008 international organizations and the vaccine industry advocated the introduction of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine for the primary prevention of cervical cancer. Meanwhile, a local study suggested that the vaccine was considerably less cost-effective than cervical cancer screening in the Thai context. Then, from August to December 2008, the MoPH carried out a campaign to expand the coverage of its cervical cancer screening program, targeting one million women. The study reveals that several factors were influential in focusing the attention of policymakers on strengthening the screening services. These included the high burden of cervical cancer in Thailand, the launch of the HPV vaccine onto the global and domestic markets, the country's political instability, and the dissemination of scientific evidence regarding the appropriateness of different options for cervical cancer prevention. Influenced by the country's political crisis, the MoPH's campaign was devised in a very short time. In the view of the responsible health officials, the campaign was not successful and indeed, did not achieve its ambitious target. The Thai case study suggests that the political crisis was a crucial factor that drew the attention of policymakers to the cervical cancer problem and led the government to adopt a policy of expanding coverage of screening services. At the same time, the instability in the political system impeded the scaling up process, as it constrained the formulation and implementation of the policy in the later phase.

Scaling up cervical cancer screening in the midst of human papillomavirus vaccination advocacy in Thailand

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Screening tests for cervical cancer are effective in reducing the disease burden. In Thailand, a Pap smear program has been implemented throughout the country for 40 years. In 2008 the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) unexpectedly decided to scale up the coverage of free cervical cancer screening services, to meet an ambitious target. This study analyzes the processes and factors that drove this policy innovation in the area of cervical cancer control in Thailand. Methods In-depth interviews with key policy actors and review of relevant documents were conducted in 2009. Data analysis was guided by a framework, developed on public policy models and existing literature on scaling-up health care interventions. Results Between 2006 and 2008 international organizations and the vaccine industry advocated the introduction of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine for the primary prevention of cervical cancer. Meanwhile, a local study suggested that the vaccine was considerably less cost-effective than cervical cancer screening in the Thai context. Then, from August to December 2008, the MoPH carried out a campaign to expand the coverage of its cervical cancer screening program, targeting one million women. The study reveals that several factors were influential in focusing the attention of policymakers on strengthening the screening services. These included the high burden of cervical cancer in Thailand, the launch of the HPV vaccine onto the global and domestic markets, the country’s political instability, and the dissemination of scientific evidence regarding the appropriateness of different options for cervical cancer prevention. Influenced by the country’s political crisis, the MoPH’s campaign was devised in a very short time. In the view of the responsible health officials, the campaign was not successful and indeed, did not achieve its ambitious target. Conclusion The Thai case study suggests that the political crisis was a crucial factor that drew the attention of policymakers to the cervical cancer problem and led the government to adopt a policy of expanding coverage of screening services. At the same time, the instability in the political system impeded the scaling up process, as it constrained the formulation and implementation of the policy in the later phase. PMID:20594371

A global, open-source database of flood protection standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scussolini, Paolo; Aerts, Jeroen; Jongman, Brenden; Bouwer, Laurens; Winsemius, Hessel; de Moel, Hans; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Accurate flood risk estimation is pivotal in that it enables risk-informed policies in disaster risk reduction, as emphasized in the recent Sendai framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. To improve our understanding of flood risk, models are now capable to provide actionable risk information on the (sub)global scale. Still the accuracy of their results is greatly limited by the lack of information on standards of protection to flood that are actually in place; and researchers thus take large assumptions on the extent of protection. With our work we propose a first global, open-source database of FLOod PROtection Standards, FLOPROS, covering a range of spatial scales. FLOPROS is structured in three layers of information, and merges them into one consistent database: 1) the Design layer contains empirical information about the standard of protection presently in place; 2) the Policy layer contains intended protection standards from normative documents; 3) the Model layer uses a validated numerical approach to calculate protection standards for areas not covered in the other layers. The FLOPROS database can be used for more accurate risk assessment exercises across scales. As the database should be continually updated to reflect new interventions, we invite researchers and practitioners to contribute information. Further, we look for partners within the risk community to participate in additional strategies to implement the amount and accuracy of information contained in this first version of FLOPROS.

Implications of freshwater flux data from the CMIP5 multimodel output across a set of Northern Hemisphere drainage basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bring, Arvid; Asokan, Shilpa M.; Jaramillo, Fernando; Jarsjö, Jerker; Levi, Lea; Pietroń, Jan; Prieto, Carmen; Rogberg, Peter; Destouni, Georgia

2015-06-01

The multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) synthesizes the latest research in global climate modeling. The freshwater system on land, particularly runoff, has so far been of relatively low priority in global climate models, despite the societal and ecosystem importance of freshwater changes, and the science and policy needs for such model output on drainage basin scales. Here we investigate the implications of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble output data for the freshwater system across a set of drainage basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Results of individual models vary widely, with even ensemble mean results differing greatly from observations and implying unrealistic long-term systematic changes in water storage and level within entire basins. The CMIP5 projections of basin-scale freshwater fluxes differ considerably more from observations and among models for the warm temperate study basins than for the Arctic and cold temperate study basins. In general, the results call for concerted research efforts and model developments for improving the understanding and modeling of the freshwater system and its change drivers. Specifically, more attention to basin-scale water flux analyses should be a priority for climate model development, and an important focus for relevant model-based advice for adaptation to climate change.

Prevention of HIV/AIDS among injecting drug users in Russia: opportunities and barriers to scaling-up of harm reduction programmes.

PubMed

Tkatchenko-Schmidt, Elena; Renton, Adrian; Gevorgyan, Ruzanna; Davydenko, Ludmila; Atun, Rifat

2008-02-01

to examine attitudes of Russian policy-makers and HIV stakeholders towards harm reduction (HR) scale up, focusing on the factors constraining the scale-up process. Semi-structured interviews with representatives of 58 government and non-governmental organisations involved in HIV policies and programmes in Volgograd Region, Russian Federation. We found a considerable diversity of opinion on HR scale-up and suggest that Russia is experiencing the situation of power parity between HR supporters and opponents with many stakeholders being indecisive or cautious to express their views. We identified six main factors which constrain policy decisions in favour of HR scale-up: insufficient financial resources; lack of information on HR effectiveness; perception of HR as being culturally unacceptable; reluctance of IDUs to use the services; opposition from law enforcement agencies and the Russian Church; and unclear legal regulations. We demonstrate a complex interplay between these factors, policy-makers' attitudes and their choices on HR scale-up. A number of actions are needed to achieve a successful scale-up of HR programmes in Russia and similar political contexts: (i) a strategic approach to HR advocacy, targeting neutral and indecisive stakeholders; (ii) more systematic evidence on HR effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in the local context; (iii) HR advocacy targeting law enforcement agencies and the Russian Church; and (iv) aligning best international HR practices with the objectives of local policy-makers, practitioners and service-users.

Impacts of potential CO2-reduction policies on air quality in the United States.

PubMed

Trail, Marcus A; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P; Liu, Peng; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Hu, Yongtao; Rudokas, Jason R; Miller, Paul J; Nenes, Athanasios; Russell, Armistead G

2015-04-21

Impacts of emissions changes from four potential U.S. CO2 emission reduction policies on 2050 air quality are analyzed using the community multiscale air quality model (CMAQ). Future meteorology was downscaled from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM) to the regional scale using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. We use emissions growth factors from the EPAUS9r MARKAL model to project emissions inventories for two climate tax scenarios, a combined transportation and energy scenario, a biomass energy scenario and a reference case. Implementation of a relatively aggressive carbon tax leads to improved PM2.5 air quality compared to the reference case as incentives increase for facilities to install flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. However, less capital is available to install NOX reduction technologies, resulting in an O3 increase. A policy aimed at reducing CO2 from the transportation sector and electricity production sectors leads to reduced emissions of mobile source NOX, thus reducing O3. Over most of the U.S., this scenario leads to reduced PM2.5 concentrations. However, increased primary PM2.5 emissions associated with fuel switching in the residential and industrial sectors leads to increased organic matter (OM) and PM2.5 in some cities.

Feedback control policies employed by people using intracortical brain-computer interfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willett, Francis R.; Pandarinath, Chethan; Jarosiewicz, Beata; Murphy, Brian A.; Memberg, William D.; Blabe, Christine H.; Saab, Jad; Walter, Benjamin L.; Sweet, Jennifer A.; Miller, Jonathan P.; Henderson, Jaimie M.; Shenoy, Krishna V.; Simeral, John D.; Hochberg, Leigh R.; Kirsch, Robert F.; Bolu Ajiboye, A.

2017-02-01

Objective. When using an intracortical BCI (iBCI), users modulate their neural population activity to move an effector towards a target, stop accurately, and correct for movement errors. We call the rules that govern this modulation a ‘feedback control policy’. A better understanding of these policies may inform the design of higher-performing neural decoders. Approach. We studied how three participants in the BrainGate2 pilot clinical trial used an iBCI to control a cursor in a 2D target acquisition task. Participants used a velocity decoder with exponential smoothing dynamics. Through offline analyses, we characterized the users’ feedback control policies by modeling their neural activity as a function of cursor state and target position. We also tested whether users could adapt their policy to different decoder dynamics by varying the gain (speed scaling) and temporal smoothing parameters of the iBCI. Main results. We demonstrate that control policy assumptions made in previous studies do not fully describe the policies of our participants. To account for these discrepancies, we propose a new model that captures (1) how the user’s neural population activity gradually declines as the cursor approaches the target from afar, then decreases more sharply as the cursor comes into contact with the target, (2) how the user makes constant feedback corrections even when the cursor is on top of the target, and (3) how the user actively accounts for the cursor’s current velocity to avoid overshooting the target. Further, we show that users can adapt their control policy to decoder dynamics by attenuating neural modulation when the cursor gain is high and by damping the cursor velocity more strongly when the smoothing dynamics are high. Significance. Our control policy model may help to build better decoders, understand how neural activity varies during active iBCI control, and produce better simulations of closed-loop iBCI movements.

The relationship between social, policy and physical venue features and social cohesion on condom use for pregnancy prevention among sex workers: a safer indoor work environment scale.

PubMed

Duff, Putu; Shoveller, Jean; Dobrer, Sabina; Ogilvie, Gina; Montaner, Julio; Chettiar, Jill; Shannon, Kate

2015-07-01

This study aims to report on a newly developed Safer Indoor Work Environmental Scale that characterises the social, policy and physical features of indoor venues and social cohesion; and using this scale, longitudinally evaluate the association between these features on sex workers' (SWs') condom use for pregnancy prevention. Drawing on a prospective open cohort of female SWs working in indoor venues, a newly developed Safer Indoor Work Environment Scale was used to build six multivariable models with generalised estimating equations (GEE), to determine the independent effects of social, policy and physical venue-based features and social cohesion on condom use. Of 588 indoor SWs, 63.6% used condoms for pregnancy prevention in the last month. In multivariable GEE analysis, the following venue-based features were significantly correlated with barrier contraceptive use for pregnancy prevention: managerial practices and venue safety policies (adjusted OR (AOR)=1.09; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.17), access to sexual and reproductive health services/supplies (AOR=1.10; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.20), access to drug harm reduction (AOR=1.13; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.28) and social cohesion among workers (AOR=1.05; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.07). Access to security features was marginally associated with condom use (AOR=1.13; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.29). The findings of the current study highlight how work environment and social cohesion among SWs are related to improved condom use. Given global calls for the decriminalisation of sex work, and potential legislative reforms in Canada, this study points to the critical need for new institutional arrangements (eg, legal and regulatory frameworks; labour standards) to support safer sex workplaces. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Long-term energy security in a national scale using LEAP. Application to de-carbonization scenarios in Andorra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

2016-04-01

This paper analyses the long-term energy security in a national scale using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) modelling tool. It builds the LEAP Andorra model, which forecasts energy demand and supply for the Principality of Andorra by 2050. It has a general bottom-up structure, where energy demand is driven by the technological composition of the sectors of the economy. The technological model is combined with a top-down econometric model to take into account macroeconomic trends. The model presented in this paper provides an initial estimate of energy demand in Andorra segregated into all sectors (residential, transport, secondary, tertiary and public administration) and charts a baseline scenario based on historical trends. Additional scenarios representing different policy strategies are built to explore the country's potential energy savings and the feasibility to achieve the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) submitted in April 2015 to UN. In this climatic agreement Andorra intends to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 37% as compared to a business-as-usual scenario by 2030. In addition, current and future energy security is analysed in this paper under baseline and de-carbonization scenarios. Energy security issues are assessed in LEAP with an integrated vision, going beyond the classic perspective of security of supply, and being closer to the sustainability's integrative vision. Results of scenarios show the benefits of climate policies in terms of national energy security and the difficulties for Andorra to achieving the de-carbonization target by 2030.

New Orleans After Hurricane Katrina: An Unnatural Disaster?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, D.; Werner, B.; Kelso, A.

2005-12-01

Motivated by destruction in New Orleans following hurricane Katrina, we use a numerical model to explore how natural processes, economic development, hazard mitigation measures and policy decisions intertwine to produce long periods of quiescence punctuated by disasters of increasing magnitude. Physical, economic and policy dynamics are modeled on a grid representing the subsiding Mississippi Delta region surrounding New Orleans. Water flow and resulting sediment erosion and deposition are simulated in response to prescribed river floods and storms. Economic development operates on a limited number of commodities and services such as agricultural products, oil and chemical industries and port services, with investment and employment responding to both local conditions and global constraints. Development permitting, artificial levee construction and pumping are implemented by policy agents who weigh predicted economic benefits (tax revenue), mitigation costs and potential hazards. Economic risk is reduced by a combination of private insurance, federal flood insurance and disaster relief. With this model, we simulate the initiation and growth of New Orleans coupled with an increasing level of protection from a series of flooding events. Hazard mitigation filters out small magnitude events, but terrain and hydrological modifications amplify the impact of large events. In our model, "natural disasters" are the inevitable outcome of the mismatch between policy based on short-time-scale economic calculations and stochastic forcing by infrequent, high-magnitude flooding events. A comparison of the hazard mitigation response to river- and hurricane-induced flooding will be discussed. Supported by NSF Geology and Paleontology and the Andrew W Mellon Foundation.

Climate change air toxic co-reduction in the context of macroeconomic modelling.

PubMed

Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Chen, Pi-Cheng; Shi, Hsiu-Ching; Chao, Chia-Wei

2013-08-15

This paper examines the health implications of global PM reduction accompanying greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the 180 national economies of the global macroeconomy. A human health effects module based on empirical data on GHG emissions, PM emissions, background PM concentrations, source apportionment and human health risk coefficients is used to estimate reductions in morbidity and mortality from PM exposures globally as co-reduction of GHG reductions. These results are compared against the "fuzzy bright line" that often underlies regulatory decisions for environmental toxics, and demonstrate that the risk reduction through PM reduction would usually be considered justified in traditional risk-based decisions for environmental toxics. It is shown that this risk reduction can be on the order of more than 4 × 10(-3) excess lifetime mortality risk, with global annual cost savings of slightly more than $10B, when uniform GHG reduction measures across all sectors of the economy form the basis for climate policy ($2.2B if only Annex I nations reduce). Consideration of co-reduction of PM-10 within a climate policy framework harmonized with other environmental policies can therefore be an effective driver of climate policy. An error analysis comparing results of the current model against those of significantly more spatially resolved models at city and national scales indicates errors caused by the low spatial resolution of the global model used here may be on the order of a factor of 2. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated Basin-Scale Modelling and Assessment: Lessons and Challenges in Linking Biophysical and Socioeconomic Sciences for Enhancing Sustainability Outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakeman, A. J.; Croke, B. F.; Letcher, R. A.; Newham, L. T.; Norton, J. P.

2004-12-01

Integrated Assessment (IA) and Integrated Scenario Modelling (ISM) are being increasingly used to assess sustainability options and, in particular, the effects of policy changes, land use management, climate forcing and other uncontrollable drivers on a wide range of river basin outcomes. IA and ISM are processes that invoke the necessary range of biophysical and socioeconomic disciplines and embrace stakeholder involvement as an essential ingredient. The authors report on their IA studies in Australian and Asian river basins. They illustrate a range of modelling frameworks and tools that were used to perform the assessments, engage the relevant interest groups and promote systems understanding and social learning. The studies cover a range of issues and policies including poverty alleviation, industrial investments, infrastructure provision, erosion and sedimentation, water supply allocation, and ecological protection. The positive impacts of these studies are presented, as well as the lessons learnt and the challenges for modellers and disciplinary experts in advancing the reputation and performance of integrated assessment exercises.

Scale appropriate modelling to represent dominant pollution processes in agricultural catchments, to underpin management and policy decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Russell; Quinn, Paul

2014-05-01

We present the development of scale appropriate modelling techniques to represent dominant pollution processes in agricultural catchments to underpin catchment management and its implications on policy. A quasi-physically based, spatially lumped macro-model (CRAFT), has been developed to assess mitigation options for nitrogen and phosphorus. CRAFT has been developed to use daily time series data of rainfall, stream flow and nutrient concentration data, and can be applied to catchments varying in size from a few hectares to 100s of square kilometres. If stream flow routing is added to the model then potentially larger catchments and sub-daily time steps could be represented. There are two key issues addressed here. Firstly, the model can be used to assess the usefulness of monitoring data collected at a high temporal resolution at considerable expense compared to routine grab sampling. An earlier study in the Frome catchment in southern England collected sub-daily water quality data for more than 12 months at the catchment outlet, comprising: total oxidised nitrogen (TON); soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. The three data sets have quite different temporal signals relating to flow pathways with different residence times and the importance of runoff events in generating acute pollution. The flexible model structure was therefore developed to include different sources of runoff including overland flow from impervious areas in the catchment, where pollution hotspots will be located (e.g. farmyards). The model has been used to assess the value of collecting high resolution monitoring data, in this case by resampling the Frome sub-daily data to a daily timestep, and comparing these model simulations against those calibrated using all the samples. The usefulness of the high resolution data can be assessed on whether a daily model would undepredict (for example) high nutrient concentrations that can be identified in the sub-daily monitoring data. Secondly, the study aims to investigate the mitigation measures that can be used to address the catchment scale sources of N and P, under EU or other governmental legislation designed to reduce their loads. In a complex catchment like the Frome, the mitigation measures are likely to target both point and non-point sources, particularly of SRP (e.g. wastewater treatment plant discharges and soluble fertilizer applications respectively). For a modelling tool to be useful to land holders and policy makers, it is imperative that these stakeholders can investigate different scenarios by easily manipulating the model input parameters, e.g. by reducing the diffuse sources of SRP and TON (by parameter adjustment), or modifying flow pathways through runoff attenuation (e.g. reducing runoff from farmyards), and the model structure reflects this functionality allowing it to be used as a runoff attenuation tool.

Field Scale Optimization for Long-Term Sustainability of Best Management Practices in Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuels, A.; Babbar-Sebens, M.

2012-12-01

Agricultural and urban land use changes have led to disruption of natural hydrologic processes and impairment of streams and rivers. Multiple previous studies have evaluated Best Management Practices (BMPs) as means for restoring existing hydrologic conditions and reducing impairment of water resources. However, planning of these practices have relied on watershed scale hydrologic models for identifying locations and types of practices at scales much coarser than the actual field scale, where landowners have to plan, design and implement the practices. Field scale hydrologic modeling provides means for identifying relationships between BMP type, spatial location, and the interaction between BMPs at a finer farm/field scale that is usually more relevant to the decision maker (i.e. the landowner). This study focuses on development of a simulation-optimization approach for field-scale planning of BMPs in the School Branch stream system of Eagle Creek Watershed, Indiana, USA. The Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX) tool is used as the field scale hydrologic model, and a multi-objective optimization algorithm is used to search for optimal alternatives. Multiple climate scenarios downscaled to the watershed-scale are used to test the long term performance of these alternatives and under extreme weather conditions. The effectiveness of these BMPs under multiple weather conditions are included within the simulation-optimization approach as a criteria/goal to assist landowners in identifying sustainable design of practices. The results from these scenarios will further enable efficient BMP planning for current and future usage.

Connecting science, policy, and implementation for landscape-scale habitat connectivity.

PubMed

Brodie, Jedediah F; Paxton, Midori; Nagulendran, Kangayatkarasu; Balamurugan, G; Clements, Gopalasamy Reuben; Reynolds, Glen; Jain, Anuj; Hon, Jason

2016-10-01

We examined the links between the science and policy of habitat corridors to better understand how corridors can be implemented effectively. As a case study, we focused on a suite of landscape-scale connectivity plans in tropical and subtropical Asia (Malaysia, Singapore, and Bhutan). The process of corridor designation may be more efficient if the scientific determination of optimal corridor locations and arrangement is synchronized in time with political buy-in and establishment of policies to create corridors. Land tenure and the intactness of existing habitat in the region are also important to consider because optimal connectivity strategies may be very different if there are few, versus many, political jurisdictions (including commercial and traditional land tenures) and intact versus degraded habitat between patches. Novel financing mechanisms for corridors include bed taxes, payments for ecosystem services, and strategic forest certifications. Gaps in knowledge of effective corridor design include an understanding of how corridors, particularly those managed by local communities, can be protected from degradation and unsustainable hunting. There is a critical need for quantitative, data-driven models that can be used to prioritize potential corridors or multicorridor networks based on their relative contributions to long-term metacommunity persistence. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong

2014-01-19

Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC – Environmental Policy Indicatormore » Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM – Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.« less

A decision support tool for simulating the effects of alternative policies affecting water resources: an application at the European scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fassio, A.; Giupponi, C.; Hiederer, R.; Simota, C.

2005-03-01

This paper presents the methodology applied and results obtained from testing the Decision Support System 'mDSS' developed by the MULINO Project (Multi-sectoral, integrated and operational decision support system for the sustainable use of water resources at the catchment scale), for assessing alternative measures for the reduction of nitrogen pressure from agriculture on water resources at European level. The European policy background is set by the EU Nitrates Directive (91/676/EEC) and the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC). The nature of the research is exploratory. It is aimed in particular at testing the usefulness of available official statistics for ex ante evaluations of alternative policy measures at the European scale, and the feasibility of such operations within the newly released mDSS software. Alternative measures for reducing N-pressure and spatial targets were designed and simulated in a GIS environment based on raster maps of 1 km resolution. The geographic extent of the present work is defined as the agricultural land of EU15. Data deriving from official statistics were used to calculate a simplified nitrogen balance, in which the sources of nitrogen are separated into organic (livestock manure) and mineral fertilisers, to distinguish the potential contribution of livestock and crop productions to water pollution at the river basin scale. Spatial indicators and evaluation indices were defined within a conceptual framework. For the study the DPSIR approach (Driving force, Pressure, State, Impact, Response), proposed by the European Environmental Agency, was adopted. The approach was subsequently elaborated by means of the multi-criteria functionality provided by mDSS. The results of this application test at the regional scale highlight the potential of the tool for evaluating the effects of policy measures targeted at different spatial implementation strategies through the application of simple screening models and using available data covering the EU15. The paper also contributes to identifying current strengths and weaknesses of available information, of the adopted methodology and the DSS tool.

How Is Existential Threat Related to Intergroup Conflict? Introducing the Multidimensional Existential Threat (MET) Model.

PubMed

Hirschberger, Gilad; Ein-Dor, Tsachi; Leidner, Bernhard; Saguy, Tamar

2016-01-01

Existential threat lies at the heart of intergroup conflict, but the literature on existential concerns lacks clear conceptualization and integration. To address this problem, we offer a new conceptualization and measurement of existential threat. We establish the reliability and validity of our measure, and to illustrate its utility, we examine whether different existential threats underlie the association between political ideology and support for specific political policies. Study 1 ( N = 798) established the construct validity of the scale, and revealed four distinct existential threats: personal death (PD), physical collective annihilation (PA), symbolic collective annihilation (SA), and past victimization (PV). Study 2 ( N = 424) confirmed the 4-factor structure, and the convergent and discriminant validity of the scale. Study 3 ( N = 170) revealed that the association between a hawkish political ideology and support for hardline policies was mediated by PV, whereas the association between a dovish political ideology and conciliatory policies was mediated by concerns over collective symbolic annihilation. Study 4 ( N = 503) conceptually replicated the pattern of findings found in Study 3, and showed that at times of conflict, PA concerns also mediate the relationship between hawkish ideologies and support for hardline policies. In both Studies 3 and 4, when controlling for other threats, PD did not play a significant role. These results underscore the need to consider the multidimensional nature of existential threat, especially in the context of political conflict.

Quantitative health impact assessment of transport policies: two simulations related to speed limit reduction and traffic re-allocation in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Schram-Bijkerk, D; van Kempen, E; Knol, A B; Kruize, H; Staatsen, B; van Kamp, I

2009-10-01

Few quantitative health impact assessments (HIAs) of transport policies have been published so far and there is a lack of a common methodology for such assessments. To evaluate the usability of existing HIA methodology to quantify health effects of transport policies at the local level. Health impact of two simulated but realistic transport interventions - speed limit reduction and traffic re-allocation - was quantified by selecting traffic-related exposures and health endpoints, modelling of population exposure, selecting exposure-effect relations and estimating the number of local traffic-related cases and disease burden, expressed in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), before and after the intervention. Exposure information was difficult to retrieve because of the local scale of the interventions, and exposure-effect relations for subgroups and combined effects were missing. Given uncertainty in the outcomes originating from this kind of missing information, simulated changes in population health by two local traffic interventions were estimated to be small (<5%), except for the estimated reduction in DALYs by less traffic accidents (60%) due to speed limit reduction. Quantitative HIA of transport policies at a local scale is possible, provided that data on exposures, the exposed population and their baseline health status are available. The interpretation of the HIA information should be carried out in the context of the quality of input data and assumptions and uncertainties of the analysis.

How Is Existential Threat Related to Intergroup Conflict? Introducing the Multidimensional Existential Threat (MET) Model

PubMed Central

Hirschberger, Gilad; Ein-Dor, Tsachi; Leidner, Bernhard; Saguy, Tamar

2016-01-01

Existential threat lies at the heart of intergroup conflict, but the literature on existential concerns lacks clear conceptualization and integration. To address this problem, we offer a new conceptualization and measurement of existential threat. We establish the reliability and validity of our measure, and to illustrate its utility, we examine whether different existential threats underlie the association between political ideology and support for specific political policies. Study 1 (N = 798) established the construct validity of the scale, and revealed four distinct existential threats: personal death (PD), physical collective annihilation (PA), symbolic collective annihilation (SA), and past victimization (PV). Study 2 (N = 424) confirmed the 4-factor structure, and the convergent and discriminant validity of the scale. Study 3 (N = 170) revealed that the association between a hawkish political ideology and support for hardline policies was mediated by PV, whereas the association between a dovish political ideology and conciliatory policies was mediated by concerns over collective symbolic annihilation. Study 4 (N = 503) conceptually replicated the pattern of findings found in Study 3, and showed that at times of conflict, PA concerns also mediate the relationship between hawkish ideologies and support for hardline policies. In both Studies 3 and 4, when controlling for other threats, PD did not play a significant role. These results underscore the need to consider the multidimensional nature of existential threat, especially in the context of political conflict. PMID:27994561

A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China.

PubMed

Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

2013-06-01

Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 - 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 - 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new model of collaborative research: experiences from one of Australia's NHMRC Partnership Centres for Better Health.

PubMed

Wutzke, Sonia; Redman, Sally; Bauman, Adrian; Hawe, Penelope; Shiell, Alan; Thackway, Sarah; Wilson, Andrew

2017-02-15

There is often a disconnection between the creation of evidence and its use in policy and practice. Cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary partnership research, founded on shared governance and coproduction, is considered to be one of the most effective means of overcoming this research-policy-practice disconnect. Similar to a number of funding bodies internationally, Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council has introduced Partnership Centres for Better Health: a scheme explicitly designed to encourage coproduced partnership research. In this paper, we describe our experiences of The Australian Prevention Partnership Centre, established in June 2013 to explore the systems, strategies and structures that inform decisions about how to prevent lifestyle-related chronic disease. We present our view on how the Partnership Centre model is working in practice. We comment on the unique features of the Partnership Centre funding model, how these features enable ways of working that are different from both investigator-initiated and commissioned research, and how these ways of working can result in unique outcomes that would otherwise not have been possible. Although not without challenges, the Partnership Centre approach addresses a major gap in the Australian research environment, whereby large-scale, research-policy-practice partnerships are established with sufficient time, resources and flexibility to deliver highly innovative, timely and accessible research that is of use to policy and practice.

Innovations In Diabetes Care Around the World: Case Studies Of Care Transformation Through Accountable Care Reforms.

PubMed

Thoumi, Andrea; Udayakumar, Krishna; Drobnick, Elizabeth; Taylor, Andrea; McClellan, Mark

2015-09-01

The rising prevalence, health burden, and cost of chronic diseases such as diabetes have accelerated global interest in innovative care models that use approaches such as community-based care and information technology to improve or transform disease prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Although evidence on the effectiveness of innovative care models is emerging, scaling up or extending these models beyond their original setting has been difficult. We developed a framework to highlight policy barriers-institutional, regulatory, and financial-to the diffusion of transformative innovations in diabetes care. The framework builds on accountable care principles that support higher-value care, or better patient-level outcomes at lower cost. We applied this framework to three case studies from the United States, Mexico, and India to describe how innovators and policy leaders have addressed barriers, with a focus on important financing barriers to provider and consumer payment. The lessons have implications for policy reform to promote innovation through new funding approaches, institutional reforms, and performance measures with the goal of addressing the growing burdens of diabetes and other chronic diseases. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Toward Creating Synergy Among Policy, Procedures, and Implementation of Evidence-Based Models in Child Welfare Systems: Two Case Examples.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Patricia

2017-03-01

Over the past four to five decades, multiple randomized controlled trials have verified that preventive interventions targeting key parenting skills can have far-reaching effects on improving a diverse array of child outcomes. Further, these studies have shown that parenting skills can be taught, and they are malleable. Given these advances, prevention scientists are in a position to make solid empirically based recommendations to public child service systems on using parent-mediated interventions to optimize positive outcomes for the children and families that they serve. Child welfare systems serve some of this country's most vulnerable children and families, yet they have been slow (compared to juvenile justice and mental health systems) to adopt empirically based interventions. This paper describes two child-welfare-initiated, policy-based case studies that have sought to scale-up research-based parenting skills into the routine services that caseworkers deliver to the families that they serve. In both case studies, the child welfare system leaders worked with evaluators and model developers to tailor policy, administrative, and fiscal system practices to institutionalize and sustain evidence-based practices into usual foster care services. Descriptions of the implementations, intervention models, and preliminary results are described.

The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliott, Joshua; Muller, Christoff

2015-01-01

Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events (IPCC, 2013). These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security (Nelson et al., 2014a). Global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time-periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). These models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, environmental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions (Bondeau et al., 2007; Drewniak et al., 2013; Elliott et al., 2014b; Gueneau et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2007; M¨uller and Robertson, 2014; Van den Hoof et al., 2011;Waha et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2014). Due to data limitations, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regarding prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and future periods. Implementation differences in these and other modeling choices contribute to significant variation among global-scale crop model assessments in addition to differences in crop model implementations that also cause large differences in site-specific crop modeling (Asseng et al., 2013; Bassu et al., 2014).

Communicating the Needs of Climate Change Policy Makers to Scientists

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Escobar, Vanessa M.; Lovell, Heather

2012-01-01

This chapter will describe the challenges that earth scientists face in developing science data products relevant to decision maker and policy needs, and will describe strategies that can improve the two-way communication between the scientist and the policy maker. Climate change policy and decision making happens at a variety of scales - from local government implementing solar homes policies to international negotiations through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Scientists can work to provide data at these different scales, but if they are not aware of the needs of decision makers or understand what challenges the policy maker is facing, they are likely to be less successful in influencing policy makers as they wished. This is because the science questions they are addressing may be compelling, but not relevant to the challenges that are at the forefront of policy concerns. In this chapter we examine case studies of science-policy partnerships, and the strategies each partnership uses to engage the scientist at a variety of scales. We examine three case studies: the global Carbon Monitoring System pilot project developed by NASA, a forest biomass mapping effort for Silvacarbon project, and a forest canopy cover project being conducted for forest management in Maryland. In each of these case studies, relationships between scientists and policy makers were critical for ensuring the focus of the science as well as the success of the decision-making.

Quantitative Decision Support Requires Quantitative User Guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. A.

2009-12-01

Is it conceivable that models run on 2007 computer hardware could provide robust and credible probabilistic information for decision support and user guidance at the ZIP code level for sub-daily meteorological events in 2060? In 2090? Retrospectively, how informative would output from today’s models have proven in 2003? or the 1930’s? Consultancies in the United Kingdom, including the Met Office, are offering services to “future-proof” their customers from climate change. How is a US or European based user or policy maker to determine the extent to which exciting new Bayesian methods are relevant here? or when a commercial supplier is vastly overselling the insights of today’s climate science? How are policy makers and academic economists to make the closely related decisions facing them? How can we communicate deep uncertainty in the future at small length-scales without undermining the firm foundation established by climate science regarding global trends? Three distinct aspects of the communication of the uses of climate model output targeting users and policy makers, as well as other specialist adaptation scientists, are discussed. First, a brief scientific evaluation of the length and time scales at which climate model output is likely to become uninformative is provided, including a note on the applicability the latest Bayesian methodology to current state-of-the-art general circulation models output. Second, a critical evaluation of the language often employed in communication of climate model output, a language which accurately states that models are “better”, have “improved” and now “include” and “simulate” relevant meteorological processed, without clearly identifying where the current information is thought to be uninformative and misleads, both for the current climate and as a function of the state of the (each) climate simulation. And thirdly, a general approach for evaluating the relevance of quantitative climate model output for a given problem is presented. Based on climate science, meteorology, and the details of the question in hand, this approach identifies necessary (never sufficient) conditions required for the rational use of climate model output in quantitative decision support tools. Inasmuch as climate forecasting is a problem of extrapolation, there will always be harsh limits on our ability to establish where a model is fit for purpose, this does not, however, limit us from identifying model noise as such, and thereby avoiding some cases of the misapplication and over interpretation of model output. It is suggested that failure to clearly communicate the limits of today’s climate model in providing quantitative decision relevant climate information to today’s users of climate information, would risk the credibility of tomorrow’s climate science and science based policy more generally.

Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

2017-12-01

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

Policy Incentives in Canadian Large-Scale Assessment: How Policy Levers Influence Teacher Decisions about Instructional Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Copp, Derek T.

2017-01-01

Large-scale assessment (LSA) is a tool used by education authorities for several purposes, including the promotion of teacher-based instructional change. In Canada, all 10 provinces engage in large-scale testing across several grade levels and subjects, and also have the common expectation that the results data will be used to improve instruction…

Temporal Ordering Effects of Adolescent Depression, Relational Aggression, and Victimization over Six Waves: Fully Latent Reciprocal Effects Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marsh, Herbert W.; Craven, Rhonda G.; Parker, Philip D.; Parada, Roberto H.; Guo, Jiesi; Dicke, Theresa; Abduljabbar, Adel Salah

2016-01-01

The temporal ordering of depression, aggression, and victimization has important implications for theory, policy, and practice. For a representative sample of high school students (Grades 7-10; N = 3,793) who completed the same psychometrically strong, multiitem scales 6 times over a 2-year period, there were reciprocal effects between…

Programme Evaluation Theory: The Next Step toward a Synthesis of Logic Models and Organisational Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fear, William J.

2007-01-01

This paper argues that the formulation of policy, at whatever level, to whatever scale or scope, is any different to the myriad of processes involved in strategic planning within and between organisations, and the attendant decision making processes that abound in such an environment (Hage, 1980; Hickson, 1987; Thompson, 1967; Weick, 1976). Those…

Agricultural policy environmental eXtender model simulation of climate change impacts on runoff from a small no-till watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Long-term hydrologic data sets are required to quantify the impacts of management, and climate on runoff at the field scale where management practices are applied. This study was conducted to evaluate the impacts of long-term management and climate on runoff from a small watershed managed with no-ti...

Designing Cyber Exercises

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

maneuver • Traditional “ Brick and Mortar ” training models – Difficult to train regularly due to logistics/budget restrictions – Doesn’t scale...complexity, scenario, location , and resources available • Scalable 4-cell planning construct – Exercise Control (White Cell) – Threat Emulation (Red...business impact) • Collaborative effort  Trusted Agents ( SMEs ) – Threats – Cyber defense capabilities – Policies and procedures – Project and/or

What's scale got to do with it? Models for urban tree canopy

Treesearch

Dexter H. Locke; Shawn M. Landry; Morgan Grove; Rinku Roy Chowdhury

2016-01-01

The uneven provisioning of ecosystem services has important policy implications; yet the spatial heterogeneity of tree canopy remains understudied. Private residential lands are important to the future of Philadelphia’s urban forest because a majority of the existing and possible tree canopy is located on residential land uses. This article examines the spatial...

The Path to Pedagogical Reform in the Sciences: Engaging Mutual Adaptation and Social Movement Models of Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kezar, Adrianna

2012-01-01

One of the dilemmas that policy makers, campus leaders, and individual faculty members often describe with chagrin is the difficulty of scaling up successful innovations. Officials at the National Science Foundation (NSF), for example, admit they are discouraged because the results of most NSF-funded projects are not disseminated beyond the target…

Nonlinear scaling of the Unit Hydrograph Peaking Factor for dam safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradhan, N. R.; Loney, D.

2017-12-01

Existing U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) policy suggests unit hydrograph peaking factor (UHPF), the ratio of an observed and modeled event unit hydrograph peak, range between 1.25 and 1.50 to ensure dam safety. It is pertinent to investigate the impact of extreme flood events on the validity of this range through physically based rainfall-runoff models not available during the planning and design of most USACE dams. The UHPF range was analyzed by deploying the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model in the Goose Creek, VA, watershed to develop a UHPF relationship with excess rainfall across various return-period events. An effective rainfall factor (ERF) is introduced to validate existing UHPF guidance as well as provide a nonlinear UHPF scaling relation when effective rainfall does not match that of the UH design event.

CyberSecurity Monitoring Tools and Projects: A Compendium of Commercial and Government Tools and Government Research Projects

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-08-01

identify changes to the risk levels of business network functions based on proposed modifications. Expert can model networks as well (see special...network from departmental systems to enterprise-wide environments. ACX is scaled with the use of a Policy Model Database(PMDB). The PMDB is a management...This Entry February 8, 2000 Description BlackICE Defender is a host-based intrusion detector designed for use on home or small business systems. It

Forms of ethnic prejudice: assessing the dimensionality of a Spanish-language version of the Blatant and Subtle Prejudice Scale.

PubMed

Cárdenas Castro, Manuel

2010-02-01

The main purpose of this study was to investigate the dimensionality of a Spanish-language version of the Blatant and Subtle Prejudice Scale via exploratory (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). No research has confirmed the hypothesized factor structure in Latin American countries. Using data from a random and probability survey in population of the northern area of Chile (N= 896), four models were specified: single factor model (global prejudice factor), correlated two-factor model (subtle and blatant prejudice), correlated two-factor second-order model, and single-factor second-order model. The findings indicated that the two-factor second-order model had the best fit. The corresponding alpha coefficients were .82 (subtle prejudice) and .76 (blatant prejudice). Lastly, differences were examined between , , and regarding their feelings toward immigrants, their feelings about their beliefs concerning the state aid received by these out-groups, and their feelings about their beliefs regarding future policies for them.

Intelligent simulation of aquatic environment economic policy coupled ABM and SD models.

PubMed

Wang, Huihui; Zhang, Jiarui; Zeng, Weihua

2018-03-15

Rapid urbanization and population growth have resulted in serious water shortage and pollution of the aquatic environment, which are important reasons for the complex increase in environmental deterioration in the region. This study examines the environmental consequences and economic impacts of water resource shortages under variant economic policies; however, this requires complex models that jointly consider variant agents and sectors within a systems perspective. Thus, we propose a complex system model that couples multi-agent based models (ABM) and system dynamics (SD) models to simulate the impact of alternative economic policies on water use and pricing. Moreover, this model took the constraint of the local water resources carrying capacity into consideration. Results show that to achieve the 13th Five Year Plan targets in Dianchi, water prices for local residents and industries should rise to 3.23 and 4.99 CNY/m 3 , respectively. The corresponding sewage treatment fees for residents and industries should rise to 1.50 and 2.25 CNY/m 3 , respectively, assuming comprehensive adjustment of industrial structure and policy. At the same time, the local government should exercise fine-scale economic policy combined with emission fees assessed for those exceeding a standard, and collect fines imposed as punishment for enterprises that exceed emission standards. When fines reach 500,000 CNY, the total number of enterprises that exceed emission standards in the basin can be controlled within 1%. Moreover, it is suggested that the volume of water diversion in Dianchi should be appropriately reduced to 3.06×10 8 m 3 . The reduced expense of water diversion should provide funds to use for the construction of recycled water facilities. Then the local rise in the rate of use of recycled water should reach 33%, and 1.4 CNY/m 3 for the price of recycled water could be provided to ensure the sustainable utilization of local water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploring the Implications of N Measurement and Model Choice on Using Data for Policy and Land Management Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, M. D.; Walker, J. T.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen compounds are determined using a variety of measurement and modeling methods. These values are then used to calculate fluxes to the ecosystem which can then be linked to ecological responses. But, for this data to be used outside of the system in which it is developed, it is necessary to understand how the deposition estimates relate to one another. Therefore, we first identified sources of "bulk" deposition data and compared methods, reliability of data, and consistency of results to one another. Then we looked at the variation within photochemical models that are used by Federal Agencies to evaluate national trends. Finally, we identified some best practices for researchers to consider if their assessment is intended for use at broader scales. Empirical measurements used in this assessment include passive collection of atmospheric molecules, throughfall deposition of precipitation, snowpack measurements, and using biomonitors such as lichen. The three most common photochemical models used to model deposition within the United States are CMAQ, CAMx, and TDep (which uses empirical data to refine modeled values). These models all use meteorological and emission data to estimate deposition at local, regional, or national scales. We identified the range of uncertainty that exists within the types of deposition measurements and how these vary over space and time. Uncertainty is assessed by comparing deposition estimates from differing collection methods and comparing modeled estimates to empirical deposition data. Each collection method has benefits and downfalls that need to be taken into account if the results are to be expanded outside of the research area. Comparing field measured values to modeled values highlight the importance of each in the greater goals of understanding current conditions and trends within deposition patterns in the US. While models work well on a larger scale, they cannot replicate the local heterogeneity that exists at a site. Often, each researcher has a favorite method of analysis, but if the data cannot be related to other efforts then it becomes harder to apply it to broader policy considerations.

Nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural landscapes: quantification tools, policy development, and opportunities for improved management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonitto, C.; Gurwick, N. P.

2012-12-01

Policy initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) have promoted the development of agricultural management protocols to increase SOC storage and reduce GHG emissions. We review approaches for quantifying N2O flux from agricultural landscapes. We summarize the temporal and spatial extent of observations across representative soil classes, climate zones, cropping systems, and management scenarios. We review applications of simulation and empirical modeling approaches and compare validation outcomes across modeling tools. Subsequently, we review current model application in agricultural management protocols. In particular, we compare approaches adapted for compliance with the California Global Warming Solutions Act, the Alberta Climate Change and Emissions Management Act, and by the American Carbon Registry. In the absence of regional data to drive model development, policies that require GHG quantification often use simple empirical models based on highly aggregated data of N2O flux as a function of applied N - Tier 1 models according to IPCC categorization. As participants in development of protocols that could be used in carbon offset markets, we observed that stakeholders outside of the biogeochemistry community favored outcomes from simulation modeling (Tier 3) rather than empirical modeling (Tier 2). In contrast, scientific advisors were more accepting of outcomes based on statistical approaches that rely on local observations, and their views sometimes swayed policy practitioners over the course of policy development. Both Tier 2 and Tier 3 approaches have been implemented in current policy development, and it is important that the strengths and limitations of both approaches, in the face of available data, be well-understood by those drafting and adopting policies and protocols. The reliability of all models is contingent on sufficient observations for model development and validation. Simulation models applied without site-calibration generally result in poor validation results, and this point particularly needs to be emphasized during policy development. For cases where sufficient calibration data are available, simulation models have demonstrated the ability to capture seasonal patterns of N2O flux. The reliability of statistical models likewise depends on data availability. Because soil moisture is a significant driver of N2O flux, the best outcomes occur when empirical models are applied to systems with relevant soil classification and climate. The structure of current carbon offset protocols is not well-aligned with a budgetary approach to GHG accounting. Current protocols credit field-scale reduction in N2O flux as a result of reduced fertilizer use. Protocols do not award farmers credit for reductions in CO2 emissions resulting from reduced production of synthetic N fertilizer. To achieve the greatest GHG emission reductions through reduced synthetic N production and reduced landscape N saturation requires a re-envisioning of the agricultural landscape to include cropping systems with legume and manure N sources. The current focus on on-farm GHG sources focuses credits on simple reductions of N applied in conventional systems rather than on developing cropping systems which promote higher recycling and retention of N.

Satellite-guided hydro-economic analysis for integrated management and prediction of the impact of droughts on agricultural regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maneta, M. P.; Howitt, R.; Kimball, J. S.

2013-12-01

Agricultural activity can exacerbate or buffer the impact of climate variability, especially droughts, on the hydrologic and socioeconomic conditions of rural areas. Potential negative regional impacts of droughts include impoverishment of agricultural regions, deterioration or overuse of water resources, risk of monoculture, and regional dependence on external food markets. Policies that encourage adequate management practices in the face of adverse climatic events are critical to preserve rural livelihoods and to ensure a sustainable future for agriculture. Diagnosing and managing drought effects on agricultural production, on the social and natural environment, and on limited water resources, is highly complex and interdisciplinary. The challenges that decision-makers face to mitigate the impact of water shortage are social, agronomic, economic and environmental in nature and therefore must be approached from an integrated multidisciplinary point of view. Existing observation technologies, in conjunction with models and assimilation methods open the opportunity for novel interdisciplinary analysis tools to support policy and decision making. We present an integrated modeling and observation framework driven by satellite remote sensing and other ancillary information from regional monitoring networks to enable robust regional assessment and prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production, water resources, management decisions and socioeconomic policy. The core of this framework is a hydroeconomic model of agricultural production that assimilates remote sensing inputs to quantify the amount of land, water, fertilizer and labor farmers allocate for each crop they choose to grow on a seasonal basis in response to changing climatic conditions, including drought. A regional hydroclimatologic model provides biophysical constraints to an economic model of agricultural production based on a class of models referred to as positive mathematical programming (PMP). A recursive Bayesian update method is used to adjust the model parameters by assimilating information on crop acreage, production, and crop evapotranspiration estimated from high-spatial resolution satellite remote sensing. We are developing new land parameter records adapted for agricultural application by merging relatively fine scale, calibrated spectral reflectance time series with similar spectral information from coarser scale and more temporally continuous global satellite data records. These new products will be used to generate field scale estimates of LAI and FPAR, which will be used with regional surface meteorology and biophysical data to estimate crop production including C4 crop types. This integrated framework provides an operational means to monitor and forecast what crops will be grown and how farmers will allocate land, water and other agricultural resources under expected adverse conditions, and the resulting consequences for other water users. It will also permit evaluation of impacts of water policy and changes in food prices on rural community livelihoods. The Bayesian update framework constitutes an efficient method for the identification of the production function parameters and provides valuable information on the associated uncertainty of the forecasts.

Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM).

PubMed

Oxley, Tim; Dore, Anthony J; ApSimon, Helen; Hall, Jane; Kryza, Maciej

2013-11-01

Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned. © 2013.

The air quality and health co-benefits of alternative post-2020 pathways for achieving peak carbon targets in Jiangsu, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, M.; Bi, J.; Huang, Y.; Kinney, P. L.

2016-12-01

Jiangsu, which has three national low-carbon pilot cities, is set to be a model province in China for achieving peak carbon targets before 2030. However, according to local planning of responding to climate change, carbon emissions are projected to keep going up before 2020 even the strictest measures are implemented. In other words, innovative measures must be in action after 2020. This work aimed at assessing the air quality and health co-benefits of alternative post-2020 measures to help remove barriers of policy implementation through tying it to local incentives for air quality improvement. To achieve the aim, we select 2010 as baseline year and develop Bussiness As Usual (BAU) and Traditional Carbon Reduction (TCR) scenarios before 2020. Under BAU, only existing climate and air pollution control policies are considered; under TCR, potential climate policies in local planning and existing air pollution control policies are considered. After 2020, integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and large-scale substitution of renewable energy seem to be two promising pathways for achieving peak carbon targets. Therefore, two additional scenarios (TCR-IGCC and TCR-SRE) are set after 2020. Based on the projections of future energy balances and industrial productions, we estimate the pollutant emissions and simulate PM2.5 and ozone concentrations by 2017, 2020, 2030 and 2050 using CMAQ. Then using health impact assessment approach, the premature deaths are estimated and monetized. Results show that the carbon peak in Jiangsu will be achieved before 2030 only under TCR-IGCC and TCR-SRE scenarios. Under three policy scenarios, Jiangsu's carbon emission control targets would have substantial effects on primary air pollutant emissions far beyond those we estimate would be needed to meet the PM2.5 concentration targets in 2017. Compared with IGCC with CCS, large-scale substitutions of renewable energy bring comparable pollutant emission reductions but more health benefits because it reduces more emissions from traffic sources which are more harmful to health. However, large-scale substitution of renewable energy posed challenges on energy supply capacity, which need to be seriously considered in future policy decision.

Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility computational model

PubMed Central

Balcan, Duygu; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J.; Colizza, Vittoria

2010-01-01

Here we present the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model that integrates sociodemographic and population mobility data in a spatially structured stochastic disease approach to simulate the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. We discuss the flexible structure of the model that is open to the inclusion of different disease structures and local intervention policies. This makes GLEaM suitable for the computational modeling and anticipation of the spatio-temporal patterns of global epidemic spreading, the understanding of historical epidemics, the assessment of the role of human mobility in shaping global epidemics, and the analysis of mitigation and containment scenarios. PMID:21415939

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Martinich, Jeremy; Sarofim, Marcus

2015-07-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets ofmore » 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.« less

Inequalities by immigrant status in depressive symptoms in Europe: the role of integration policy regimes.

PubMed

Malmusi, Davide; Palència, Laia; Ikram, Umar Z; Kunst, Anton E; Borrell, Carme

2017-04-01

We aimed to study whether country integration policy models were related to inequalities by immigrant status in depressive symptoms in Europe. This is a cross-sectional study using data from 17 countries in the sixth wave of the European Social Survey (2012), comparing subjects born either in the country of residence (non-immigrants, N = 28,333) or in a country not classified as "advanced economy" by the IMF (immigrants, N = 2041). Depressive symptoms were assessed with the eight-item version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale. Countries were grouped into three integration policy regimes (inclusive, assimilationist, and exclusionist). Linear regressions were fitted adjusting first by age, sex, and education level, then sequentially by citizenship, perceived discrimination, and socio-economic variables. In all integration regimes, immigrants report significantly more depressive symptoms than non-immigrants. The gap is the largest in exclusionist countries (immigrants score 1.16, 95% CI 0.65-1.68, points higher than non-immigrants in the depression scale), followed by assimilationist countries (0.85 and 0.57-1.13) and inclusive countries (0.60 and 0.36-0.84). Financial strain explains all the associations in inclusive countries, most of it in assimilationist countries, but only a small part in exclusionist countries. Across most European countries, immigrants seem to experience more depressive symptoms than the population born in the country, mostly reflecting their poorer socio-economic situation. Inequalities are larger in countries with more restrictive policies. Despite some limitations, this study adds new evidence to suggest that immigrants' health is shaped by integration policies in their host country.

National-Level Wetland Policy Specificity and Goals Vary According to Political and Economic Indicators.

PubMed

Peimer, Alex W; Krzywicka, Adrianna E; Cohen, Dora B; Van den Bosch, Kyle; Buxton, Valerie L; Stevenson, Natalie A; Matthews, Jeffrey W

2017-01-01

Growing recognition of the importance of wetlands to human and ecosystem well-being has led countries worldwide to implement wetland protection policies. Different countries have taken different approaches to wetland protection by implementing various policies, including territorial exclusion, market-based offsetting, and incentive programs for land users. Our objective was to describe the relationship between components of national-level wetland protection policies and national characteristics, including natural resource, economic, social, and political factors. We compiled data on the wetland policies of all 193 countries recognized by the U.N. and described the relationships among wetland policy goals and wetland protection mechanisms using non-metric multidimensional scaling. The first non-metric multidimensional scaling axis strongly correlated with whether a country had a wetland-specific environmental policy in place. Adoption of a comprehensive, wetland-specific policy was positively associated with degree of democracy and a commitment to establishing protected areas. The second non-metric multidimensional scaling axis defined a continuum of policy goals and mechanisms by which wetlands are protected, with goals to protect wetland ecosystem services on one end of the spectrum and goals to protect biodiversity on the other. Goals for protecting ecosystem services were frequently cited in policy documents of countries with agriculture-based economies, whereas goals associated with wetland biodiversity tended to be associated with tourism-based economies. We argue that the components of a country's wetland policies reflect national-level resource and economic characteristics. Understanding the relationship between the type of wetland policy countries adopt and national-level characteristics is critical for international efforts to protect wetlands.

National-Level Wetland Policy Specificity and Goals Vary According to Political and Economic Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peimer, Alex W.; Krzywicka, Adrianna E.; Cohen, Dora B.; Van den Bosch, Kyle; Buxton, Valerie L.; Stevenson, Natalie A.; Matthews, Jeffrey W.

2017-01-01

Growing recognition of the importance of wetlands to human and ecosystem well-being has led countries worldwide to implement wetland protection policies. Different countries have taken different approaches to wetland protection by implementing various policies, including territorial exclusion, market-based offsetting, and incentive programs for land users. Our objective was to describe the relationship between components of national-level wetland protection policies and national characteristics, including natural resource, economic, social, and political factors. We compiled data on the wetland policies of all 193 countries recognized by the U.N. and described the relationships among wetland policy goals and wetland protection mechanisms using non-metric multidimensional scaling. The first non-metric multidimensional scaling axis strongly correlated with whether a country had a wetland-specific environmental policy in place. Adoption of a comprehensive, wetland-specific policy was positively associated with degree of democracy and a commitment to establishing protected areas. The second non-metric multidimensional scaling axis defined a continuum of policy goals and mechanisms by which wetlands are protected, with goals to protect wetland ecosystem services on one end of the spectrum and goals to protect biodiversity on the other. Goals for protecting ecosystem services were frequently cited in policy documents of countries with agriculture-based economies, whereas goals associated with wetland biodiversity tended to be associated with tourism-based economies. We argue that the components of a country's wetland policies reflect national-level resource and economic characteristics. Understanding the relationship between the type of wetland policy countries adopt and national-level characteristics is critical for international efforts to protect wetlands.

Low-Intensity Agricultural Landscapes in Transylvania Support High Butterfly Diversity: Implications for Conservation

PubMed Central

Loos, Jacqueline; Dorresteijn, Ine; Hanspach, Jan; Fust, Pascal; Rakosy, László; Fischer, Joern

2014-01-01

European farmland biodiversity is declining due to land use changes towards agricultural intensification or abandonment. Some Eastern European farming systems have sustained traditional forms of use, resulting in high levels of biodiversity. However, global markets and international policies now imply rapid and major changes to these systems. To effectively protect farmland biodiversity, understanding landscape features which underpin species diversity is crucial. Focusing on butterflies, we addressed this question for a cultural-historic landscape in Southern Transylvania, Romania. Following a natural experiment, we randomly selected 120 survey sites in farmland, 60 each in grassland and arable land. We surveyed butterfly species richness and abundance by walking transects with four repeats in summer 2012. We analysed species composition using Detrended Correspondence Analysis. We modelled species richness, richness of functional groups, and abundance of selected species in response to topography, woody vegetation cover and heterogeneity at three spatial scales, using generalised linear mixed effects models. Species composition widely overlapped in grassland and arable land. Composition changed along gradients of heterogeneity at local and context scales, and of woody vegetation cover at context and landscape scales. The effect of local heterogeneity on species richness was positive in arable land, but negative in grassland. Plant species richness, and structural and topographic conditions at multiple scales explained species richness, richness of functional groups and species abundances. Our study revealed high conservation value of both grassland and arable land in low-intensity Eastern European farmland. Besides grassland, also heterogeneous arable land provides important habitat for butterflies. While butterfly diversity in arable land benefits from heterogeneity by small-scale structures, grasslands should be protected from fragmentation to provide sufficiently large areas for butterflies. These findings have important implications for EU agricultural and conservation policy. Most importantly, conservation management needs to consider entire landscapes, and implement appropriate measures at multiple spatial scales. PMID:25058307

Policy Guidance From a Multi-scale Suite of Natural Field and Digital Laboratories of Change: Hydrological Catchment Studies of Nutrient and Pollutant Source Releases, Waterborne Transport-Transformations and Mass Flows in Water Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Destouni, G.

2008-12-01

Continental fresh water transports and loads excess nutrients and pollutants from various land surface sources, through the landscape, into downstream inland and coastal water environments. Our ability to understand, predict and control the eutrophication and the pollution pressures on inland, coastal and marine water ecosystems relies on our ability to quantify these mass flows. This paper synthesizes a series of hydro- biogeochemical studies of nutrient and pollutant sources, transport-transformations and mass flows in catchment areas across a range of scales, from continental, through regional and national, to individual drainage basin scales. Main findings on continental scales include correlations between country/catchment area, population and GDP and associated pollutant and nutrient loading, which differ significantly between world regions with different development levels. On regional scales, essential systematic near-coastal gaps are identified in the national monitoring of nutrient and pollutant loads from land to the sea. Combination of the unmonitored near-coastal area characteristics with the relevant regional nutrient and pollutant load correlations with these characteristics shows that the unmonitored nutrient and pollutant mass loads to the sea may often be as large as, or greater than the monitored river loads. Process studies on individual basin- scales show long-term nutrient and pollutant memories in the soil-groundwater systems of the basins, which may continue to uphold large mass loading to inland and coastal waters long time after mitigation of the sources. Linked hydro-biogeochemical-economic model studies finally demonstrate significant comparative advantages of policies that demand explicit quantitative account of the uncertainties implied by these monitoring gaps and long-term nutrient-pollution memories and time lags, and other knowledge, data and model limitations, instead of the now common neglect or subjective implicit handling of such uncertainties in strategies and practices for combating water pollution and eutrophication.

Stormwater pollution in suburban ecosystems: the role of residential rooftop connectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miles, B.; Band, L. E.

2013-12-01

Stormwater pollution has been recognized as a major concern of urban sustainability. Understanding interactions between urban landcover and stormwater pollution can be advanced through the development of spatially explicit ecohydrology models that simulate fine-scale residential stormwater management; this requires high-resolution LIDAR and landcover data, as well as field observation at the household scale. The objective of my research is to improve understanding of how parcel-scale heterogeneity of impervious and previous surfaces effect stormwater volume. In support of this objective, I present results from work to: (1) perform field observation of existing patterns of residential rooftop connectivity to nearby impervious surfaces; (2) modify the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) to explicitly represent non-topographic surface flow routing of rooftops; and (3) develop RHESSys models for urban-suburban headwater watersheds in Baltimore, MD (as part of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES) NSF Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site) and Durham, NC (as part of the NSF Urban Long-Term Research Area (ULTRA) program). I use these models to simulate stormwater volume resulting from both baseline residential rooftop impervious connectivity and for disconnection scenarios (e.g. roof drainage to lawn v. engineered rain garden, upslope v. riparian). This research will help to improve representation of fine-scale surface flow features in urban ecohydrology modeling while informing policy decisions over how best to implement parcel-scale retrofits in existing neighborhoods to reduce stormwater pollution at the watershed scale.

"Going the Extra Mile in Downscaling: Why Downscaling is not ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation provides an example of doing additional work for preprocessing global climate model data for use in regional climate modeling simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In this presentation, results from 15 months of downscaling the Community Earth System Model (CESM) were shown, both using the out-of-the-box downscaling of CESM and also with a modification to setting the inland lake temperatures. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being used by EPA, NOAA, and the air pollution community in understanding and forecasting not only the magnitude of the air pollution problem, but also in developing emission control policies and regulations for air quality improvements.

"Updates to Model Algorithms & Inputs for the Biogenic ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We have developed new canopy emission algorithms and land use data for BEIS. Simulations with BEIS v3.4 and these updates in CMAQ v5.0.2 are compared these changes to the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and evaluated the simulations against observations. This has resulted in improvements in model evaluations of modeled isoprene, NOx, and O3. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being used by EPA, NOAA, and the air pollution community in understanding and forecasting not only the magnitude of the air pollution problem, but also in developing emission control policies and regulations for air quality improvements.

Contribution of ecosystem services to air quality and climate change mitigation policies: the case of urban forests in Barcelona, Spain.

PubMed

Baró, Francesc; Chaparro, Lydia; Gómez-Baggethun, Erik; Langemeyer, Johannes; Nowak, David J; Terradas, Jaume

2014-05-01

Mounting research highlights the contribution of ecosystem services provided by urban forests to quality of life in cities, yet these services are rarely explicitly considered in environmental policy targets. We quantify regulating services provided by urban forests and evaluate their contribution to comply with policy targets of air quality and climate change mitigation in the municipality of Barcelona, Spain. We apply the i-Tree Eco model to quantify in biophysical and monetary terms the ecosystem services "air purification," "global climate regulation," and the ecosystem disservice "air pollution" associated with biogenic emissions. Our results show that the contribution of urban forests regulating services to abate pollution is substantial in absolute terms, yet modest when compared to overall city levels of air pollution and GHG emissions. We conclude that in order to be effective, green infrastructure-based efforts to offset urban pollution at the municipal level have to be coordinated with territorial policies at broader spatial scales.

How much of the income inequality effect can be explained by public policy? Evidence from oral health in Brazil.

PubMed

Celeste, Roger Keller; Nadanovsky, Paulo

2010-10-01

To evaluate the association between income inequality, a public policy scale and to oral health. Analysis, using the Brazilian oral health survey in 2002-2003, included 23,573 15-19-year-old subjects clustered in 330 municipalities. Missing and decayed teeth and malocclusion assessments were the outcomes. Gini coefficient and a novel Scale of Municipal Public Policies were the main exposure variables. Individual level covariates were used as controls in multilevel regressions. An increase from the lowest to the highest Gini value in Brazil was associated with an increase in the number of missing (rate ratio, RR=2.11 confidence interval 95% 1.18-3.77) and decayed teeth (RR=2.92 CI 95% 1.83-4.65). After adjustment for public policies and water fluoridation, the Gini effect was non-significant and public policies explained most of the variation in missing and decayed teeth. The public policy scale remained significant after adjustment with a rate ratio of 0.64 for missing and 0.72 for decayed teeth. Neither Gini nor public policies were significantly related to malocclusion. The public policy effect on missing and decayed teeth was stronger among those with higher education and income. Income inequality effect was explained mainly by public policies, which had an independent effect that was greater among the better-off. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oil price and exchange rate co-movements in Asian countries: Detrended cross-correlation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Muntazir; Zebende, Gilney Figueira; Bashir, Usman; Donghong, Ding

2017-01-01

Most empirical literature investigates the relation between oil prices and exchange rate through different models. These models measure this relationship on two time scales (long and short terms), and often fail to observe the co-movement of these variables at different time scales. We apply a detrended cross-correlation approach (DCCA) to investigate the co-movements of the oil price and exchange rate in 12 Asian countries. This model determines the co-movements of oil price and exchange rate at different time scale. The exchange rate and oil price time series indicate unit root problem. Their correlation and cross-correlation are very difficult to measure. The result becomes spurious when periodic trend or unit root problem occurs in these time series. This approach measures the possible cross-correlation at different time scale and controlling the unit root problem. Our empirical results support the co-movements of oil prices and exchange rate. Our results support a weak negative cross-correlation between oil price and exchange rate for most Asian countries included in our sample. The results have important monetary, fiscal, inflationary, and trade policy implications for these countries.

Verification of watershed vegetation restoration policies, arid China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Chengqi; Li, Yu

2016-01-01

Verification of restoration policies that have been implemented is of significance to simultaneously reduce global environmental risks while also meeting economic development goals. This paper proposed a novel method according to the idea of multiple time scales to verify ecological restoration policies in the Shiyang River drainage basin, arid China. We integrated modern pollen transport characteristics of the entire basin and pollen records from 8 Holocene sedimentary sections, and quantitatively reconstructed the millennial-scale changes of watershed vegetation zones by defining a new pollen-precipitation index. Meanwhile, Empirical Orthogonal Function method was used to quantitatively analyze spatial and temporal variations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in summer (June to August) of 2000–2014. By contrasting the vegetation changes that mainly controlled by millennial-scale natural ecological evolution with that under conditions of modern ecological restoration measures, we found that vegetation changes of the entire Shiyang River drainage basin are synchronous in both two time scales, and the current ecological restoration policies met the requirements of long-term restoration objectives and showed promising early results on ecological environmental restoration. Our findings present an innovative method to verify river ecological restoration policies, and also provide the scientific basis to propose future emphasizes of ecological restoration strategies. PMID:27470948

Verification of watershed vegetation restoration policies, arid China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chengqi; Li, Yu

2016-07-01

Verification of restoration policies that have been implemented is of significance to simultaneously reduce global environmental risks while also meeting economic development goals. This paper proposed a novel method according to the idea of multiple time scales to verify ecological restoration policies in the Shiyang River drainage basin, arid China. We integrated modern pollen transport characteristics of the entire basin and pollen records from 8 Holocene sedimentary sections, and quantitatively reconstructed the millennial-scale changes of watershed vegetation zones by defining a new pollen-precipitation index. Meanwhile, Empirical Orthogonal Function method was used to quantitatively analyze spatial and temporal variations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in summer (June to August) of 2000-2014. By contrasting the vegetation changes that mainly controlled by millennial-scale natural ecological evolution with that under conditions of modern ecological restoration measures, we found that vegetation changes of the entire Shiyang River drainage basin are synchronous in both two time scales, and the current ecological restoration policies met the requirements of long-term restoration objectives and showed promising early results on ecological environmental restoration. Our findings present an innovative method to verify river ecological restoration policies, and also provide the scientific basis to propose future emphasizes of ecological restoration strategies.

The effects of maximising the UK's tobacco control score on inequalities in smoking prevalence and premature coronary heart disease mortality: a modelling study.

PubMed

Allen, Kirk; Kypridemos, Chris; Hyseni, Lirije; Gilmore, Anna B; Diggle, Peter; Whitehead, Margaret; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

2016-04-01

Smoking is more than twice as common among the most disadvantaged socioeconomic groups in England compared to the most affluent and is a major contributor to health-related inequalities. The United Kingdom (UK) has comprehensive smoking policies in place: regular tax increases; public information campaigns; on-pack pictorial health warnings; advertising bans; cessation; and smoke-free areas. This is confirmed from its high Tobacco Control Scale (TCS) score, an expert-developed instrument for assessing the strength of tobacco control policies. However, room remains for improvement in tobacco control policies. Our aim was to evaluate the cumulative effect on smoking prevalence of improving all TCS components in England, stratified by socioeconomic circumstance. Effect sizes and socioeconomic gradients for all six types of smoking policy in the UK setting were adapted from systematic reviews, or if not available, from primary studies. We used the IMPACT Policy Model to link predicted changes in smoking prevalence to changes in premature coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality for ages 35-74. Health outcomes with a time horizon of 2025 were stratified by quintiles of socioeconomic circumstance. The model estimated that improving all smoking policies to achieve a maximum score on the TCS might reduce smoking prevalence in England by 3% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1-4%), from 20 to 17% in absolute terms, or by 15% in relative terms (95% CI: 7-21%). The most deprived quintile would benefit more, with absolute reductions from 31 to 25%, or a 6% reduction (95% CI: 2-7%). There would be some 3300 (95% CI: 2200-4700) fewer premature CHD deaths between 2015-2025, a 2% (95% CI: 1.4-2.9%) reduction. The most disadvantaged quintile would benefit more, reducing absolute inequality of CHD mortality by about 4 % (95% CI: 3-9%). Further, feasible improvements in tobacco control policy could substantially improve population health, and reduce health-related inequalities in England.

Tools and Techniques for Basin-Scale Climate Change Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagona, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Oakley, W.; Wilson, N.; Weinstein, P.; Verdin, A.; Jerla, C.; Prairie, J. R.

2012-12-01

The Department of Interior's WaterSMART Program seeks to secure and stretch water supplies to benefit future generations and identify adaptive measures to address climate change. Under WaterSMART, Basin Studies are comprehensive water studies to explore options for meeting projected imbalances in water supply and demand in specific basins. Such studies could be most beneficial with application of recent scientific advances in climate projections, stochastic simulation, operational modeling and robust decision-making, as well as computational techniques to organize and analyze many alternatives. A new integrated set of tools and techniques to facilitate these studies includes the following components: Future supply scenarios are produced by the Hydrology Simulator, which uses non-parametric K-nearest neighbor resampling techniques to generate ensembles of hydrologic traces based on historical data, optionally conditioned on long paleo reconstructed data using various Markov Chain techniuqes. Resampling can also be conditioned on climate change projections from e.g., downscaled GCM projections to capture increased variability; spatial and temporal disaggregation is also provided. The simulations produced are ensembles of hydrologic inputs to the RiverWare operations/infrastucture decision modeling software. Alternative demand scenarios can be produced with the Demand Input Tool (DIT), an Excel-based tool that allows modifying future demands by groups such as states; sectors, e.g., agriculture, municipal, energy; and hydrologic basins. The demands can be scaled at future dates or changes ramped over specified time periods. Resulting data is imported directly into the decision model. Different model files can represent infrastructure alternatives and different Policy Sets represent alternative operating policies, including options for noticing when conditions point to unacceptable vulnerabilities, which trigger dynamically executing changes in operations or other options. The over-arching Study Manager provides a graphical tool to create combinations of future supply scenarios, demand scenarios, infrastructure and operating policy alternatives; each scenario is executed as an ensemble of RiverWare runs, driven by the hydrologic supply. The Study Manager sets up and manages multiple executions on multi-core hardware. The sizeable are typically direct model outputs, or post-processed indicators of performance based on model outputs. Post processing statistical analysis of the outputs are possible using the Graphical Policy Analysis Tool or other statistical packages. Several Basin Studies undertaken have used RiverWare to evaluate future scenarios. The Colorado River Basin Study, the most complex and extensive to date, has taken advantage of these tools and techniques to generate supply scenarios, produce alternative demand scenarios and to set up and execute the many combinations of supplies, demands, policies, and infrastructure alternatives. The tools and techniques will be described with example applications.

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Modelling the Cost of Antiretroviral Treatment—State of the Art and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Meyer-Rath, Gesine; Over, Mead

2012-01-01

Policy discussions about the feasibility of massively scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART) to reduce HIV transmission and incidence hinge on accurately projecting the cost of such scale-up in comparison to the benefits from reduced HIV incidence and mortality. We review the available literature on modelled estimates of the cost of providing ART to different populations around the world, and suggest alternative methods of characterising cost when modelling several decades into the future. In past economic analyses of ART provision, costs were often assumed to vary by disease stage and treatment regimen, but for treatment as prevention, in particular, most analyses assume a uniform cost per patient. This approach disregards variables that can affect unit cost, such as differences in factor prices (i.e., the prices of supplies and services) and the scale and scope of operations (i.e., the sizes and types of facilities providing ART). We discuss several of these variables, and then present a worked example of a flexible cost function used to determine the effect of scale on the cost of a proposed scale-up of treatment as prevention in South Africa. Adjusting previously estimated costs of universal testing and treatment in South Africa for diseconomies of small scale, i.e., more patients being treated in smaller facilities, adds 42% to the expected future cost of the intervention. PMID:22802731

Explaining the Decrease in Deaths from Cardiovascular Disease in Poland. The Top-Down Risk Assessment Approach, from Policy to Health Impact.

PubMed

Kobza, Joanna; Geremek, Mariusz

2016-04-13

The purpose of this paper was to assess the relations between policy and health outcome The CVD mortality rate in Poland over the past two decades has decreased by about 40%. It was the highest decrease among Central and Eastern European countries and also exceptional on a global scale. Key determinants which can account for these phenomena include CVD-related life style factors, better environmental indicators, and better access to medical technologies and to pharmacological treatment. Health policy played a vital role. The study was based on an extensive literature review, documentation analysis and questionnaire survey research. The top-down risk assessment approach model was implemented, which followed the logical pathway between the policy, health determinants, risk factors and health outcome. Several national public health programs have been implemented since the beginning of the 1990s. The National Health Fund has constantly increased the expenditures on cardiology treatment. The number of invasive cardiology units has increased, as has the number of coronarography and angioplasty procedures in the same period. The significant mortality decrease can indicate to policy makers that it is necessary to prioritize policies to manage effective, innovative medical interventions. Topdown policy risk assessment is a useful methodological tool to present the full chain of interactions.

Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

2016-04-01

Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

Conceptual Modeling for Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management in the Barycz Valley, Lower Silesia, Poland

PubMed Central

Magnuszewski, Piotr; Sendzimir, Jan; Kronenberg, Jakub

2005-01-01

The complexity of interactions in socio-ecological systems makes it very difficult to plan and implement policies successfully. Traditional environmental management and assessment techniques produce unsatisfactory results because they often ignore facets of system structure that underlie complexity: delays, feedbacks, and non-linearities. Assuming that causes are linked in a linear chain, they concentrate on technological developments (“hard path”) as the only solutions to environmental problems. Adaptive Management is recognized as a promising alternative approach directly addressing links between social and ecological systems and involving stakeholders in the analysis and decision process. This “soft path” requires special tools to facilitate collaboration between “experts” and stakeholders in analyzing complex situations and prioritizing policies and actions. We have applied conceptual modeling to increase communication, understanding and commitment in the project of seven NGOs “Sustainable Regional Development in the Odra Catchment”. The main goal was to help our NGO partners to facilitate their efforts related to developing sustainable policies and practices to respond to large-scale challenges (EU accession, global changes in climate and economy) to their natural, economic and socio-cultural heritages. Among the variety of sustainability issues explored by these NGOs, two (extensive agricultural practices and “green” local products) were examined by using Adaptive Management (AM) as a framework that would link analysis, discussion, research, actions and monitoring. Within the AM framework the project coordinators used tools of systems analysis (Mental Model Mapping) to facilitate discussions in which NGO professionals and local stakeholders could graphically diagram and study their understanding of what factors interacted and how they affect the region’s sustainability. These discussions produced larger-scale Regional Sustainability Models as well as more detailed sub-models of particular factors, processes, and feedback loops that appear critical to a sustainable future. The Regional Sustainability Model was used to identify a subset of key interacting factors (variables). For each variable, several sustainability indicators were suggested. The growing understanding and acceptance of the AM framework and systems analysis created a momentum both locally and within the region, which makes continued successful use of these indicators quite likely. In contrast to expert-driven projects that inject outside knowledge into a local context, this project established a broad basis for stakeholder-driven discussion that is articulated into goals, objectives, conceptual models, and indicators. The ability to learn and adapt in the AM framework increases the capacity to innovate and find policies and practices that enhance resilience and sustainability in a world in transition. PMID:16705818

WaterWorld, a spatial hydrological model applied at scales from local to global: key challenges to local application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Sophia; Mulligan, Mark

2017-04-01

WaterWorld is a widely used spatial hydrological policy support system. The last user census indicates regular use by 1029 institutions across 141 countries. A key feature of WaterWorld since 2001 is that it comes pre-loaded with all of the required data for simulation anywhere in the world at a 1km or 1 ha resolution. This means that it can be easily used, without specialist technical ability, to examine baseline hydrology and the impacts of scenarios for change or management interventions to support policy formulation, hence its labelling as a policy support system. WaterWorld is parameterised by an extensive global gridded database of more than 600 variables, developed from many sources, since 1998, the so-called simTerra database. All of these data are available globally at 1km resolution and some variables (terrain, land cover, urban areas, water bodies) are available globally at 1ha resolution. If users have access to better data than is pre-loaded, they can upload their own data. WaterWorld is generally applied at the national or basin scale at 1km resolution, or locally (for areas of <10,000km2) at 1ha resolution, though continental (1km resolution) and global (10km resolution) applications are possible so it is a model with local to global applications. WaterWorld requires some 140 maps to run including monthly climate data, land cover and use, terrain, population, water bodies and more. Whilst publically-available terrain and land cover data are now well developed for local scale application, climate and land use data remain a challenge, with most global products being available at 1km or 10km resolution or worse, which is rather coarse for local application. As part of the EartH2Observe project we have used WFDEI (WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim data) at 1km resolution to provide an alternative input to WaterWorld's preloaded climate data. Here we examine the impacts of that on key hydrological outputs: water balance, water quality and outline the remaining challenges of using datasets like these for local scale application.

One State's Systems Change Efforts to Reduce Child Care Expulsion: Taking the Pyramid Model to Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vinh, Megan; Strain, Phil; Davidon, Sarah; Smith, Barbara J.

2016-01-01

This article describes the efforts funded by the state of Colorado to address unacceptably high rates of expulsion from child care. Based on the results of a 2006 survey, the state of Colorado launched two complementary policy initiatives in 2009 to impact expulsion rates and to improve the use of evidence-based practices related to challenging…

CONSTRAINING URBAN-TO-GLOBAL SCALE ESTIMATES OF BLACK CARBON DISTRIBUTIONS, SOURCES, REGIONAL CLIMATE IMPACTS, AND CO-BENEFIT METRICS WITH ADVANCED COUPLED DYNAMIC - CHEMICAL TRANSPORT - ADJOINT MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

This project will provide an unprecedented and much-needed identification and ranking of the sources of uncertainty in BC, its effects on climate, and the impacts of policy actions to reduce its impact on air quality and climate. The estimates of process and emissions uncertai...

Economic modeling of effects of climate change on the forest sector and mitigation options: a compendium of briefing papers

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig

2010-01-01

This report is a compilation of six briefing papers based on literature reviews and syntheses, prepared for U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service policy analysts and decisionmakers about specific questions pertaining to climate change. The main topics addressed here are economic effects on the forest sector at the national and global scales, costs of forest...

Comparing Achievement between K-8 and Middle Schools: A Large-Scale Empirical Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Byrnes, Vaughan; Ruby, Allen

2007-01-01

This study compares middle schools to K-8 schools, as well as to newly formed K-8 schools that are part of a K-8 conversion policy. The outcome is student achievement, and our sample includes 40,883 eighth-grade students from 95 schools across five cohorts. The analysis uses multilevel modeling to account for student, cohort, and school-level…

Adapting silviculture to a changing climate in the southern United States

Treesearch

James M. Guldin

2014-01-01

Questions about how forests might respond to climate change are often addressed through planning, prediction, and modeling at the landscape scale. A recent synthesis of climate-change impacts on forest management and policy found that the earth is warmer than it has been in the recent past, and that 11 of the last 12 years rank among the 12 warmest since 1850 (Solomon...

Climate policy: Risk-averse governments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Paul G.

2014-04-01

Relative to the scale of the problem, climate policies worldwide have failed. Now research explains why policy innovations are often inadequate, routinely reflecting the aversion of policymakers to the risk of failure.

Policy Implications of Achievement Testing Using Multilevel Models: The Case of Brazilian Elementary Schools.

PubMed

Menezes, Igor G; Duran, Victor R; Mendonça Filho, Euclides J; Veloso, Tainã J; Sarmento, Stella M S; Paget, Christine L; Ruggeri, Kai

2016-01-01

Large-scale educational assessment has been established as source of descriptive, evaluative and interpretative information that influence educational policies worldwide throughout the last third of the twentieth century. In the 1990s the Brazilian Ministry of Education developed the National Basic Education Assessment System (SAEB) that regularly measures management, resource and contextual school features and academic achievement in public and private institutions. In 2005, after significant piloting and review of the SAEB, a new sampling strategy was taken and Prova Brasil became the new instrument used by the Ministry to assess skills in Portuguese (reading comprehension) and Mathematics (problem solving), as well as collecting contextual information concerning the school, principal, teacher, and the students. This study aims to identify which variables are predictors of academic achievement of fifth grade students on Prova Brasil. Across a large sample of students, multilevel models tested a large number of variables relevant to student achievement. This approach uncovered critical variables not commonly seen as significant in light of other achievement determinants, including student habits, teacher ethnicity, and school technological resources. As such, this approach demonstrates the value of MLM to appropriately nuanced educational policies that reflect critical influences on student achievement. Its implications for wider application for psychology studies that may have relevant impacts for policy are also discussed.

Policy Implications of Achievement Testing Using Multilevel Models: The Case of Brazilian Elementary Schools

PubMed Central

Menezes, Igor G.; Duran, Victor R.; Mendonça Filho, Euclides J.; Veloso, Tainã J.; Sarmento, Stella M. S.; Paget, Christine L.; Ruggeri, Kai

2016-01-01

Large-scale educational assessment has been established as source of descriptive, evaluative and interpretative information that influence educational policies worldwide throughout the last third of the twentieth century. In the 1990s the Brazilian Ministry of Education developed the National Basic Education Assessment System (SAEB) that regularly measures management, resource and contextual school features and academic achievement in public and private institutions. In 2005, after significant piloting and review of the SAEB, a new sampling strategy was taken and Prova Brasil became the new instrument used by the Ministry to assess skills in Portuguese (reading comprehension) and Mathematics (problem solving), as well as collecting contextual information concerning the school, principal, teacher, and the students. This study aims to identify which variables are predictors of academic achievement of fifth grade students on Prova Brasil. Across a large sample of students, multilevel models tested a large number of variables relevant to student achievement. This approach uncovered critical variables not commonly seen as significant in light of other achievement determinants, including student habits, teacher ethnicity, and school technological resources. As such, this approach demonstrates the value of MLM to appropriately nuanced educational policies that reflect critical influences on student achievement. Its implications for wider application for psychology studies that may have relevant impacts for policy are also discussed. PMID:27933004

Adult Literacy: Monitoring and Evaluation for Practice and Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Daniel A.

2008-11-01

With the advent of the UN Literacy Decade launched in 2003, there is increased emphasis on monitoring and evaluation of adult literacy around the globe. The present paper presents an overview of the main approaches that have been taken to measure adult literacy within and across countries. A particular focus of the present review is to compare and contrast three models of literacy assessment: (1) the "traditional" model based largely on census enumeration, which has been used over recent decades to collect national and regional rates of illiteracy; (2) the large-scale survey techniques employed with the International Adult Literacy Survey and similar models; and (3) an intermediate type of assessment that borrows from the previous two models, and attempts to "tailor" the size and complexity of the survey methodology to the policy questions needing answers (called the SQC model). The present paper suggests that there is no single model or set of methods that are universally appropriate to monitoring and measuring in adult literacy around the world, but that blending both programmatic and comparative models through the SQC approach may bring greater involvement in, and insight into, adult literacy evaluations.

Simulating Land-Use Change using an Agent-Based Land Transaction Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, M. M.; van Dijk, J.; Alam, S. J.

2013-12-01

In the densely populated cultural landscapes of Europe, the vast majority of all land is owned by private parties, be it farmers (the majority), nature organizations, property developers, or citizens. Therewith, the vast majority of all land-use change arises from land transactions between different owner types: successful farms expand at the expense of less successful farms, and meanwhile property developers, individual citizens, and nature organizations also actively purchase land. These land transactions are driven by specific properties of the land, by governmental policies, and by the (economic) motives of both buyers and sellers. Climate/global change can affect these drivers at various scales: at the local scale changes in hydrology can make certain land less or more desirable; at the global scale the agricultural markets will affect motives of farmers to buy or sell land; while at intermediate (e.g. provincial) scales property developers and nature conservationists may be encouraged or discouraged to purchase land. The cumulative result of all these transactions becomes manifest in changing land-use patterns, and consequent environmental responses. Within the project Climate Adaptation for Rural Areas an agent-based land-use model was developed that explores the future response of individual land users to climate change, within the context of wider global change (i.e. policy and market change). It simulates the exchange of land among farmers and between farmers and nature organizations and property developers, for a specific case study area in the east of the Netherlands. Results show that local impacts of climate change can result in a relative stagnation in the land market in waterlogged areas. Furthermore, the increase in dairying at the expense of arable cultivation - as has been observed in the area in the past - is slowing down as arable produce shows a favourable trend in the agricultural world market. Furthermore, budgets for nature managers are obviously an important driver for nature expansion, but without a strict zoning plan imposed by a government, it is difficult to achieve a continuous, defragmented nature area. Lastly, the model suggests that with time the trend in ever-increasing farm sizes is gradually levelling out. The decision rules that determine the behaviours of the individual agents in the model (selling land, buying land, or none of the two) are calibrated on historical census records, using multi-nominal logistic regression. Because estimating who will sell and who will buy can only be done with a limited certainty, our model reproduces the volatility / uncertainty in who will do what and when. This makes that each specific future scenario can have numerous realizations of reality. Our stakeholders (including, besides policy makers, also local farmers and nature organizations) indicate that this aspect of the model strongly contributes to its credibility. Nevertheless, within different scenarios certain (spatial) trends are distinguishable, so that the model is -besides credible - also useful for exploring future trends.

The policy chicken and the science egg. Has applied ecology failed the transgenic crops debate?

PubMed

Gray, A J

2014-12-01

Ecology has a long history of research relevant to and impacting on real-world issues. Nonetheless problems of communication remain between policy-makers and scientists because they tend to work at different levels of generality (policy deals with broad issues, science prefers specific questions), and complexity (policy-makers want simple answers, ecologists tend to offer multi-factorial solutions) and to different timescales (policy-makers want answers tomorrow, ecologists always seem to want more time). These differences are not unique to the debate about the cultivation of transgenic crops. Research on gene flow is used to illustrate how science and policy are intimately bound together in a value-laden, iterative and messy process unlike that characterised by the 'encounter problem-do science-make policy' model. It also demonstrates how the gap between science and policy is often characterised by value-laden language. Scientists involved in ERA for transgenic crops may find their engagement with policy- and decision-makers clouded by misunderstanding about what one should expect from the other. Not the least of these, that science can define harm, is explored in a discussion of the U.K. Farm Scale Evaluations of herbicide-tolerant GM crops. The varied responses to these extensive trials highlight the problems of linking specific scientific experiments with broad policy objectives. The problems of applied ecology in the transgenic crops debate are not unique but may differ from other areas of environmental policy in the intense politicisation of the debate, the emphasis on assessment of risk and the particularly broad policy objectives.

VIC-CropSyst-v2: A regional-scale modeling platform to simulate the nexus of climate, hydrology, cropping systems, and human decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Keyvan; Stöckle, Claudio; Chinnayakanahalli, Kiran; Nelson, Roger; Liu, Mingliang; Rajagopalan, Kirti; Barik, Muhammad; Adam, Jennifer C.

2017-08-01

Food supply is affected by a complex nexus of land, atmosphere, and human processes, including short- and long-term stressors (e.g., drought and climate change, respectively). A simulation platform that captures these complex elements can be used to inform policy and best management practices to promote sustainable agriculture. We have developed a tightly coupled framework using the macroscale variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and the CropSyst agricultural model. A mechanistic irrigation module was also developed for inclusion in this framework. Because VIC-CropSyst combines two widely used and mechanistic models (for crop phenology, growth, management, and macroscale hydrology), it can provide realistic and hydrologically consistent simulations of water availability, crop water requirements for irrigation, and agricultural productivity for both irrigated and dryland systems. This allows VIC-CropSyst to provide managers and decision makers with reliable information on regional water stresses and their impacts on food production. Additionally, VIC-CropSyst is being used in conjunction with socioeconomic models, river system models, and atmospheric models to simulate feedback processes between regional water availability, agricultural water management decisions, and land-atmosphere interactions. The performance of VIC-CropSyst was evaluated on both regional (over the US Pacific Northwest) and point scales. Point-scale evaluation involved using two flux tower sites located in agricultural fields in the US (Nebraska and Illinois). The agreement between recorded and simulated evapotranspiration (ET), applied irrigation water, soil moisture, leaf area index (LAI), and yield indicated that, although the model is intended to work on regional scales, it also captures field-scale processes in agricultural areas.

Analysis on the restriction factors of the green building scale promotion based on DEMATEL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenxia, Hong; Zhenyao, Jiang; Zhao, Yang

2017-03-01

In order to promote the large-scale development of the green building in our country, DEMATEL method was used to classify influence factors of green building development into three parts, including green building market, green technology and macro economy. Through the DEMATEL model, the interaction mechanism of each part was analyzed. The mutual influence degree of each barrier factor that affects the green building promotion was quantitatively analysed and key factors for the development of green building in China were also finally determined. In addition, some implementation strategies of promoting green building scale development in our country were put forward. This research will show important reference value and practical value for making policies of the green building promotion.

Use of Fuzzy rainfall-runoff predictions for claypan watersheds with conservation buffers in Northeast Missouri

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anomaa Senaviratne, G. M. M. M.; Udawatta, Ranjith P.; Anderson, Stephen H.; Baffaut, Claire; Thompson, Allen

2014-09-01

Fuzzy rainfall-runoff models are often used to forecast flood or water supply in large catchments and applications at small/field scale agricultural watersheds are limited. The study objectives were to develop, calibrate, and validate a fuzzy rainfall-runoff model using long-term data of three adjacent field scale row crop watersheds (1.65-4.44 ha) with intermittent discharge in the claypan soils of Northeast Missouri. The watersheds were monitored for a six-year calibration period starting 1991 (pre-buffer period). Thereafter, two of them were treated with upland contour grass and agroforestry (tree + grass) buffers (4.5 m wide, 36.5 m apart) to study water quality benefits. The fuzzy system was based on Mamdani method using MATLAB 7.10.0. The model predicted event-based runoff with model performance coefficients of r2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSC) values greater than 0.65 for calibration and validation. The pre-buffer fuzzy system predicted event-based runoff for 30-50 times larger corn/soybean watersheds with r2 values of 0.82 and 0.68 and NSC values of 0.77 and 0.53, respectively. The runoff predicted by the fuzzy system closely agreed with values predicted by physically-based Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender model (APEX) for the pre-buffer watersheds. The fuzzy rainfall-runoff model has the potential for runoff predictions at field-scale watersheds with minimum input. It also could up-scale the predictions for large-scale watersheds to evaluate the benefits of conservation practices.

Computational data sciences for assessment and prediction of climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguly, A. R.

2011-12-01

Climate extremes may be defined inclusively as severe weather events or large shifts in global or regional weather patterns which may be caused or exacerbated by natural climate variability or climate change. This area of research arguably represents one of the largest knowledge-gaps in climate science which is relevant for informing resource managers and policy makers. While physics-based climate models are essential in view of non-stationary and nonlinear dynamical processes, their current pace of uncertainty reduction may not be adequate for urgent stakeholder needs. The structure of the models may in some cases preclude reduction of uncertainty for critical processes at scales or for the extremes of interest. On the other hand, methods based on complex networks, extreme value statistics, machine learning, and space-time data mining, have demonstrated significant promise to improve scientific understanding and generate enhanced predictions. When combined with conceptual process understanding at multiple spatiotemporal scales and designed to handle massive data, interdisciplinary data science methods and algorithms may complement or supplement physics-based models. Specific examples from the prior literature and our ongoing work suggests how data-guided improvements may be possible, for example, in the context of ocean meteorology, climate oscillators, teleconnections, and atmospheric process understanding, which in turn can improve projections of regional climate, precipitation extremes and tropical cyclones in an useful and interpretable fashion. A community-wide effort is motivated to develop and adapt computational data science tools for translating climate model simulations to information relevant for adaptation and policy, as well as for improving our scientific understanding of climate extremes from both observed and model-simulated data.

EPOS-WP16: A coherent and collaborative network of Solid Earth Multi-scale laboratories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calignano, Elisa; Rosenau, Matthias; Lange, Otto; Spiers, Chris; Willingshofer, Ernst; Drury, Martyn; van Kan-Parker, Mirjam; Elger, Kirsten; Ulbricht, Damian; Funiciello, Francesca; Trippanera, Daniele; Sagnotti, Leonardo; Scarlato, Piergiorgio; Tesei, Telemaco; Winkler, Aldo

2017-04-01

Laboratory facilities are an integral part of Earth Science research. The diversity of methods employed in such infrastructures reflects the multi-scale nature of the Earth system and is essential for the understanding of its evolution, for the assessment of geo-hazards and for the sustainable exploitation of geo-resources. In the frame of EPOS (European Plate Observing System), the Working Package 16 represents a developing community of European Geoscience Multi-scale laboratories. The participant and collaborating institutions (Utrecht University, GFZ, RomaTre University, INGV, NERC, CSIC-ICTJA, CNRS, LMU, C4G-UBI, ETH, CNR*) embody several types of laboratory infrastructures, engaged in different fields of interest of Earth Science: from high temperature and pressure experimental facilities, to electron microscopy, micro-beam analysis, analogue tectonic and geodynamic modelling and paleomagnetic laboratories. The length scales encompassed by these infrastructures range from the nano- and micrometre levels (electron microscopy and micro-beam analysis) to the scale of experiments on centimetres-sized samples, and to analogue model experiments simulating the reservoir scale, the basin scale and the plate scale. The aim of WP16 is to provide two services by the year 2019: first, providing virtual access to data from laboratories (data service) and, second, providing physical access to laboratories (transnational access, TNA). Regarding the development of a data service, the current status is such that most data produced by the various laboratory centres and networks are available only in limited "final form" in publications, many data remain inaccessible and/or poorly preserved. Within EPOS the TCS Multi-scale laboratories is collecting and harmonizing available and emerging laboratory data on the properties and process controlling rock system behaviour at all relevant scales, in order to generate products accessible and interoperable through services for supporting research activities into Geo-resources and Geo-storage, Geo-hazards and Earth System Evolution. Regarding the provision of physical access to laboratories the current situation is such that access to WP16's laboratories is often based on professional relations, available budgets, shared interests and other constraints. In WP16 we aim at reducing the present diversity and non-transparency of access rules and replace ad-hoc procedures for access by a streamlined mechanisms, objective rules and a transparent policy. We work on procedures and mechanisms regulating application, negotiation, evaluation, feedback, selection, admission, approval, feasibility check, setting-up, use, monitoring and dismantling. In the end laboratories should each have a single point providing clear and transparent information on the facility itself, its services, access policy, data management policy and the legal terms and conditions for use of equipment. Through its role as an intermediary and information broker, EPOS will acquire a wealth of information from Research Infrastructures and users on the establishment of efficient collaboration agreements.

Excess mortality in persons with severe mental disorders: a multilevel intervention framework and priorities for clinical practice, policy and research agendas

PubMed Central

Liu, Nancy H.; Daumit, Gail L.; Dua, Tarun; Aquila, Ralph; Charlson, Fiona; Cuijpers, Pim; Druss, Benjamin; Dudek, Kenn; Freeman, Melvyn; Fujii, Chiyo; Gaebel, Wolfgang; Hegerl, Ulrich; Levav, Itzhak; Munk Laursen, Thomas; Ma, Hong; Maj, Mario; Elena Medina‐Mora, Maria; Nordentoft, Merete; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Pratt, Karen; Prince, Martin; Rangaswamy, Thara; Shiers, David; Susser, Ezra; Thornicroft, Graham; Wahlbeck, Kristian; Fekadu Wassie, Abe; Whiteford, Harvey; Saxena, Shekhar

2017-01-01

Excess mortality in persons with severe mental disorders (SMD) is a major public health challenge that warrants action. The number and scope of truly tested interventions in this area remain limited, and strategies for implementation and scaling up of programmes with a strong evidence base are scarce. Furthermore, the majority of available interventions focus on a single or an otherwise limited number of risk factors. Here we present a multilevel model highlighting risk factors for excess mortality in persons with SMD at the individual, health system and socio‐environmental levels. Informed by that model, we describe a comprehensive framework that may be useful for designing, implementing and evaluating interventions and programmes to reduce excess mortality in persons with SMD. This framework includes individual‐focused, health system‐focused, and community level and policy‐focused interventions. Incorporating lessons learned from the multilevel model of risk and the comprehensive intervention framework, we identify priorities for clinical practice, policy and research agendas. PMID:28127922

A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

DOE PAGES

Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; ...

2015-04-01

Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganicmore » carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO 2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.« less

Opportunities and constraints for improved water resources management under increasing hydrological extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.

2017-12-01

Increased occurrence of extreme climate events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the impacts of such extreme events on global and regional water resources is therefore crucial for quantifying increasing risks from climate change. The quest for water security has been a struggle throughout human history. Only in recent years has the scale of this quest moved beyond the local, to the national and regional scales and to the planet itself. Absent or unreliable water supply, sanitation and irrigation services, unmitigated floods and droughts, and degraded water environments severely impact half of the planet's population. The scale and complexity of the water challenges faced by society, particularly but not only in the world's poorest regions, are now recognized, as is the imperative of overcoming these challenges for a stable and equitable world. IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFAS) is an unprecedented inter-disciplinary scientific initiative to identify robust and adaptive portfolios of optional solutions across different economic sectors, including agriculture, energy and industry, and to test these solution-portfolios with multi-model ensembles of hydrologic and sector models to obtain a clearer picture of the trade-offs, risks, and opportunities. The results of WFaS scenarios and models provide a basis for long-term strategic planning of water resource development under changing environments and increasing climate extremes. And given the complexity of the water system, WFaS uniquely provides policy makers with optional sets of solutions that work together and that can be easily adapted as circumstances change in the future. As WFaS progresses, it will establish a network involving information exchange, mutual learning and horizontal cooperation across teams of researchers, public and private decision makers and practitioners exploring solutions at regional, national and local scales. The initiative includes a major stakeholder consultation component, to inform and guide the science and to test and refine policy and business outcome.

Spectrum-Malaria: a user-friendly projection tool for health impact assessment and strategic planning by malaria control programmes in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Hamilton, Matthew; Mahiane, Guy; Werst, Elric; Sanders, Rachel; Briët, Olivier; Smith, Thomas; Cibulskis, Richard; Cameron, Ewan; Bhatt, Samir; Weiss, Daniel J; Gething, Peter W; Pretorius, Carel; Korenromp, Eline L

2017-02-10

Scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. This article presents a new modelling tool projecting malaria infection, cases and deaths to support impact evaluation, target setting and strategic planning. Nested in the Spectrum suite of programme planning tools, the model includes historic estimates of case incidence and deaths in groups aged up to 4, 5-14, and 15+ years, and prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection (PfPR) among children 2-9 years, for 43 sub-Saharan African countries and their 602 provinces, from the WHO and malaria atlas project. Impacts over 2016-2030 are projected for insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC), and effective management of uncomplicated cases (CMU) and severe cases (CMS), using statistical functions fitted to proportional burden reductions simulated in the P. falciparum dynamic transmission model OpenMalaria. In projections for Nigeria, ITNs, IRS, CMU, and CMS scale-up reduced health burdens in all age groups, with largest proportional and especially absolute reductions in children up to 4 years old. Impacts increased from 8 to 10 years following scale-up, reflecting dynamic effects. For scale-up of each intervention to 80% effective coverage, CMU had the largest impacts across all health outcomes, followed by ITNs and IRS; CMS and SMC conferred additional small but rapid mortality impacts. Spectrum-Malaria's user-friendly interface and intuitive display of baseline data and scenario projections holds promise to facilitate capacity building and policy dialogue in malaria programme prioritization. The module's linking to the OneHealth Tool for costing will support use of the software for strategic budget allocation. In settings with moderately low coverage levels, such as Nigeria, improving case management and achieving universal coverage with ITNs could achieve considerable burden reductions. Projections remain to be refined and validated with local expert input data and actual policy scenarios.

Finding pathways to national-scale land-sector sustainability.

PubMed

Gao, Lei; Bryan, Brett A

2017-04-12

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets under Agenda 2030 of the United Nations map a coherent global sustainability ambition at a level of detail general enough to garner consensus amongst nations. However, achieving the global agenda will depend heavily on successful national-scale implementation, which requires the development of effective science-driven targets tailored to specific national contexts and supported by strong national governance. Here we assess the feasibility of achieving multiple SDG targets at the national scale for the Australian land-sector. We scaled targets to three levels of ambition and two timeframes, then quantitatively explored the option space for target achievement under 648 plausible future environmental, socio-economic, technological and policy pathways using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) integrated land systems model. We show that target achievement is very sensitive to global efforts to abate emissions, domestic land-use policy, productivity growth rate, and land-use change adoption behaviour and capacity constraints. Weaker target-setting ambition resulted in higher achievement but poorer sustainability outcomes. Accelerating land-use dynamics after 2030 changed the targets achieved by 2050, warranting a longer-term view and greater flexibility in sustainability implementation. Simultaneous achievement of multiple targets is rare owing to the complexity of sustainability target implementation and the pervasive trade-offs in resource-constrained land systems. Given that hard choices are needed, the land-sector must first address the essential food/fibre production, biodiversity and land degradation components of sustainability via specific policy pathways. It may also contribute to emissions abatement, water and energy targets by capitalizing on co-benefits. However, achieving targets relevant to the land-sector will also require substantial contributions from other sectors such as clean energy, food systems and water resource management. Nations require globally coordinated, national-scale, comprehensive, integrated, multi-sectoral analyses to support national target-setting that prioritizes efficient and effective sustainability interventions across societies, economies and environments.

Finding pathways to national-scale land-sector sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Lei; Bryan, Brett A.

2017-04-01

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets under Agenda 2030 of the United Nations map a coherent global sustainability ambition at a level of detail general enough to garner consensus amongst nations. However, achieving the global agenda will depend heavily on successful national-scale implementation, which requires the development of effective science-driven targets tailored to specific national contexts and supported by strong national governance. Here we assess the feasibility of achieving multiple SDG targets at the national scale for the Australian land-sector. We scaled targets to three levels of ambition and two timeframes, then quantitatively explored the option space for target achievement under 648 plausible future environmental, socio-economic, technological and policy pathways using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) integrated land systems model. We show that target achievement is very sensitive to global efforts to abate emissions, domestic land-use policy, productivity growth rate, and land-use change adoption behaviour and capacity constraints. Weaker target-setting ambition resulted in higher achievement but poorer sustainability outcomes. Accelerating land-use dynamics after 2030 changed the targets achieved by 2050, warranting a longer-term view and greater flexibility in sustainability implementation. Simultaneous achievement of multiple targets is rare owing to the complexity of sustainability target implementation and the pervasive trade-offs in resource-constrained land systems. Given that hard choices are needed, the land-sector must first address the essential food/fibre production, biodiversity and land degradation components of sustainability via specific policy pathways. It may also contribute to emissions abatement, water and energy targets by capitalizing on co-benefits. However, achieving targets relevant to the land-sector will also require substantial contributions from other sectors such as clean energy, food systems and water resource management. Nations require globally coordinated, national-scale, comprehensive, integrated, multi-sectoral analyses to support national target-setting that prioritizes efficient and effective sustainability interventions across societies, economies and environments.

Latino Immigrant Family Socialization Scale: Development and Validation of a Multidimensional Ethnic-Racial Socialization Measurement.

PubMed

Ayón, Cecilia

2018-04-26

The study describes multiple steps taken to develop and test the Latino Immigrant Family Socialization (LIFS) scale. Scale items were developed based on qualitative interviews, and feedback on the items was solicited from content experts including an academic, practitioner, and a group of promotoras (or lay health workers). The scale was completed by 300 Latino immigrant parents in the state of Arizona. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis confirmed a six-factor model. The six factors ware cultural socialization, adapt, advocate, value diversity, promote mistrust, and educate about nativity and documentation. Follow-up studies are needed to continue the measurement validation process and assess how strategies are used in conjunction with each other, the application of the six strategies across different policy contexts, and how the ethnic-racial socialization process supports children's health and well-being.

Introduction of Syphilis Point-of-Care Tests, from Pilot Study to National Programme Implementation in Zambia: A Qualitative Study of Healthcare Workers' Perspectives on Testing, Training and Quality Assurance.

PubMed

Ansbro, Éimhín M; Gill, Michelle M; Reynolds, Joanna; Shelley, Katharine D; Strasser, Susan; Sripipatana, Tabitha; Tshaka Ncube, Alexander; Tembo Mumba, Grace; Terris-Prestholt, Fern; Peeling, Rosanna W; Mabey, David

2015-01-01

Syphilis affects 1.4 million pregnant women globally each year. Maternal syphilis causes congenital syphilis in over half of affected pregnancies, leading to early foetal loss, pregnancy complications, stillbirth and neonatal death. Syphilis is under-diagnosed in pregnant women. Point-of-care rapid syphilis tests (RST) allow for same-day treatment and address logistical barriers to testing encountered with standard Rapid Plasma Reagin testing. Recent literature emphasises successful introduction of new health technologies requires healthcare worker (HCW) acceptance, effective training, quality monitoring and robust health systems. Following a successful pilot, the Zambian Ministry of Health (MoH) adopted RST into policy, integrating them into prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV clinics in four underserved Zambian districts. We compare HCW experiences, including challenges encountered in scaling up from a highly supported NGO-led pilot to a large-scale MoH-led national programme. Questionnaires were administered through structured interviews of 16 HCWs in two pilot districts and 24 HCWs in two different rollout districts. Supplementary data were gathered via stakeholder interviews, clinic registers and supervisory visits. Using a conceptual framework adapted from health technology literature, we explored RST acceptance and usability. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics. Key themes in qualitative data were explored using template analysis. Overall, HCWs accepted RST as learnable, suitable, effective tools to improve antenatal services, which were usable in diverse clinical settings. Changes in training, supervision and quality monitoring models between pilot and rollout may have influenced rollout HCW acceptance and compromised testing quality. While quality monitoring was integrated into national policy and training, implementation was limited during rollout despite financial support and mentorship. We illustrate that new health technology pilot research can rapidly translate into policy change and scale-up. However, training, supervision and quality assurance models should be reviewed and strengthened as rollout of the Zambian RST programme continues.

Introduction of Syphilis Point-of-Care Tests, from Pilot Study to National Programme Implementation in Zambia: A Qualitative Study of Healthcare Workers’ Perspectives on Testing, Training and Quality Assurance

PubMed Central

Ansbro, Éimhín M.; Gill, Michelle M.; Reynolds, Joanna; Shelley, Katharine D.; Strasser, Susan; Sripipatana, Tabitha; Ncube, Alexander Tshaka; Tembo Mumba, Grace; Terris-Prestholt, Fern; Peeling, Rosanna W.; Mabey, David

2015-01-01

Syphilis affects 1.4 million pregnant women globally each year. Maternal syphilis causes congenital syphilis in over half of affected pregnancies, leading to early foetal loss, pregnancy complications, stillbirth and neonatal death. Syphilis is under-diagnosed in pregnant women. Point-of-care rapid syphilis tests (RST) allow for same-day treatment and address logistical barriers to testing encountered with standard Rapid Plasma Reagin testing. Recent literature emphasises successful introduction of new health technologies requires healthcare worker (HCW) acceptance, effective training, quality monitoring and robust health systems. Following a successful pilot, the Zambian Ministry of Health (MoH) adopted RST into policy, integrating them into prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV clinics in four underserved Zambian districts. We compare HCW experiences, including challenges encountered in scaling up from a highly supported NGO-led pilot to a large-scale MoH-led national programme. Questionnaires were administered through structured interviews of 16 HCWs in two pilot districts and 24 HCWs in two different rollout districts. Supplementary data were gathered via stakeholder interviews, clinic registers and supervisory visits. Using a conceptual framework adapted from health technology literature, we explored RST acceptance and usability. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics. Key themes in qualitative data were explored using template analysis. Overall, HCWs accepted RST as learnable, suitable, effective tools to improve antenatal services, which were usable in diverse clinical settings. Changes in training, supervision and quality monitoring models between pilot and rollout may have influenced rollout HCW acceptance and compromised testing quality. While quality monitoring was integrated into national policy and training, implementation was limited during rollout despite financial support and mentorship. We illustrate that new health technology pilot research can rapidly translate into policy change and scale-up. However, training, supervision and quality assurance models should be reviewed and strengthened as rollout of the Zambian RST programme continues. PMID:26030741

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk in Georgia, USA: 2000-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Ping; Mu, Lan; Madden, Marguerite; Vena, John E.

2014-10-01

Lung cancer is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer in both men and women in Georgia, USA. However, the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer risk in Georgia have not been fully studied. Hierarchical Bayesian models are used here to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk by race and gender in Georgia for the period of 2000-2007. With the census tract level as the spatial scale and the 2-year period aggregation as the temporal scale, we compare a total of seven Bayesian spatio-temporal models including two under a separate modeling framework and five under a joint modeling framework. One joint model outperforms others based on the deviance information criterion. Results show that the northwest region of Georgia has consistently high lung cancer incidence risk for all population groups during the study period. In addition, there are inverse relationships between the socioeconomic status and the lung cancer incidence risk among all Georgian population groups, and the relationships in males are stronger than those in females. By mapping more reliable variations in lung cancer incidence risk at a relatively fine spatio-temporal scale for different Georgian population groups, our study aims to better support healthcare performance assessment, etiological hypothesis generation, and health policy making.

Youth Drinking in the United States: Relationships With Alcohol Policies and Adult Drinking

PubMed Central

Xuan, Ziming; Blanchette, Jason G.; Nelson, Toben F.; Nguyen, Thien H.; Hadland, Scott E.; Oussayef, Nadia L.; Heeren, Timothy C.

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: The relationship between the alcohol policy environment (ie, the combined effectiveness and implementation of multiple existing alcohol policies) and youth drinking in the United States has not been assessed. We hypothesized that stronger alcohol policy environments are inversely associated with youth drinking, and this relationship is partly explained by adult drinking. METHODS: Alcohol Policy Scale (APS) scores that characterized the strength of the state-level alcohol policy environments were assessed with repeated cross-sectional Youth Risk Behavior Survey data of representative samples of high school students in grades 9 to 12, from biennial years between 1999 and 2011. RESULTS: In fully adjusted models, a 10 percentage point increase in APS scores (representing stronger policy environments) was associated with an 8% reduction in the odds of youth drinking and a 7% reduction in the odds of youth binge drinking. After we accounted for youth-oriented alcohol policies, the subgroup of population-oriented policies was independently associated with lower odds of youth drinking (adjusted odds ratio 0.94; 95% confidence interval 0.92–0.97) and youth binge drinking (adjusted odds ratio 0.96; 95% confidence interval 0.94–0.99). State-level per capita consumption mediated the relationship between population-oriented alcohol policies and binge drinking among youth. CONCLUSIONS: Stronger alcohol policies, including those that do not target youth specifically, are related to a reduced likelihood of youth alcohol consumption. These findings suggest that efforts to reduce youth drinking should incorporate population-based policies to reduce excessive drinking among adults as part of a comprehensive approach to preventing alcohol-related harms. Future research should examine influence of alcohol policy subgroups and discrete policies. PMID:26034246

The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

2012-12-01

We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total renewable freshwater available in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, 20% and 27% of the global population in years 2050 and 2095, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of renewable water available in a year (i.e., WSI > 1.0). We also investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water demand and compare them to the contribution of socioeconomic drivers both globally and regionally. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 in year 2095, under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. With more stringent climate mitigation targets, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy while increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food, energy, and land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

Mixing Carrots and Sticks to Conserve Forests in the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatial Probabilistic Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Börner, Jan; Marinho, Eduardo; Wunder, Sven

2015-01-01

Annual forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon had in 2012 declined to less than 5,000 sqkm, from over 27,000 in 2004. Mounting empirical evidence suggests that changes in Brazilian law enforcement strategy and the related governance system may account for a large share of the overall success in curbing deforestation rates. At the same time, Brazil is experimenting with alternative approaches to compensate farmers for conservation actions through economic incentives, such as payments for environmental services, at various administrative levels. We develop a spatially explicit simulation model for deforestation decisions in response to policy incentives and disincentives. The model builds on elements of optimal enforcement theory and introduces the notion of imperfect payment contract enforcement in the context of avoided deforestation. We implement the simulations using official deforestation statistics and data collected from field-based forest law enforcement operations in the Amazon region. We show that a large-scale integration of payments with the existing regulatory enforcement strategy involves a tradeoff between the cost-effectiveness of forest conservation and landholder incomes. Introducing payments as a complementary policy measure increases policy implementation cost, reduces income losses for those hit hardest by law enforcement, and can provide additional income to some land users. The magnitude of the tradeoff varies in space, depending on deforestation patterns, conservation opportunity and enforcement costs. Enforcement effectiveness becomes a key determinant of efficiency in the overall policy mix. PMID:25650966

Mixing carrots and sticks to conserve forests in the Brazilian Amazon: a spatial probabilistic modeling approach.

PubMed

Börner, Jan; Marinho, Eduardo; Wunder, Sven

2015-01-01

Annual forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon had in 2012 declined to less than 5,000 sqkm, from over 27,000 in 2004. Mounting empirical evidence suggests that changes in Brazilian law enforcement strategy and the related governance system may account for a large share of the overall success in curbing deforestation rates. At the same time, Brazil is experimenting with alternative approaches to compensate farmers for conservation actions through economic incentives, such as payments for environmental services, at various administrative levels. We develop a spatially explicit simulation model for deforestation decisions in response to policy incentives and disincentives. The model builds on elements of optimal enforcement theory and introduces the notion of imperfect payment contract enforcement in the context of avoided deforestation. We implement the simulations using official deforestation statistics and data collected from field-based forest law enforcement operations in the Amazon region. We show that a large-scale integration of payments with the existing regulatory enforcement strategy involves a tradeoff between the cost-effectiveness of forest conservation and landholder incomes. Introducing payments as a complementary policy measure increases policy implementation cost, reduces income losses for those hit hardest by law enforcement, and can provide additional income to some land users. The magnitude of the tradeoff varies in space, depending on deforestation patterns, conservation opportunity and enforcement costs. Enforcement effectiveness becomes a key determinant of efficiency in the overall policy mix.

Potential for using regional and global datasets for national scale ecosystem service modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, Deborah; Jackson, Bethanna

2016-04-01

Ecosystem service models are increasingly being used by planners and policy makers to inform policy development and decisions about national-level resource management. Such models allow ecosystem services to be mapped and quantified, and subsequent changes to these services to be identified and monitored. In some cases, the impact of small scale changes can be modelled at a national scale, providing more detailed information to decision makers about where to best focus investment and management interventions that could address these issues, while moving toward national goals and/or targets. National scale modelling often uses national (or local) data (for example, soils, landcover and topographical information) as input. However, there are some places where fine resolution and/or high quality national datasets cannot be easily obtained, or do not even exist. In the absence of such detailed information, regional or global datasets could be used as input to such models. There are questions, however, about the usefulness of these coarser resolution datasets and the extent to which inaccuracies in this data may degrade predictions of existing and potential ecosystem service provision and subsequent decision making. Using LUCI (the Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator) as an example predictive model, we examine how the reliability of predictions change when national datasets of soil, landcover and topography are substituted with coarser scale regional and global datasets. We specifically look at how LUCI's predictions of where water services, such as flood risk, flood mitigation, erosion and water quality, change when national data inputs are replaced by regional and global datasets. Using the Conwy catchment, Wales, as a case study, the land cover products compared are the UK's Land Cover Map (2007), the European CORINE land cover map and the ESA global land cover map. Soils products include the National Soil Map of England and Wales (NatMap) and the European Soils Database. NEXTmap elevation data, which covers the UK and parts of continental Europe, are compared to global AsterDEM and SRTM30 topographical products. While the regional and global datasets can be used to fill gaps in data requirements, the coarser resolution of these datasets means that there is greater aggregation of information over larger areas. This loss of detail impacts on the reliability of model output, particularly where significant discrepancies between datasets exist. The implications of this loss of detail in terms of spatial planning and decision making is discussed. Finally, in the context of broader development the need for better nationally and globally available data to allow LUCI and other ecosystem models to become more globally applicable is highlighted.

A process-based agricultural model for the irrigated agriculture sector in Alberta, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammar, M. E.; Davies, E. G.

2015-12-01

Connections between land and water, irrigation, agricultural productivity and profitability, policy alternatives, and climate change and variability are complex, poorly understood, and unpredictable. Policy assessment for agriculture presents a large potential for development of broad-based simulation models that can aid assessment and quantification of policy alternatives over longer temporal scales. The Canadian irrigated agriculture sector is concentrated in Alberta, where it represents two thirds of the irrigated land-base in Canada and is the largest consumer of surface water. Despite interest in irrigation expansion, its potential in Alberta is uncertain given a constrained water supply, significant social and economic development and increasing demands for both land and water, and climate change. This paper therefore introduces a system dynamics model as a decision support tool to provide insights into irrigation expansion in Alberta, and into trade-offs and risks associated with that expansion. It is intended to be used by a wide variety of users including researchers, policy analysts and planners, and irrigation managers. A process-based cropping system approach is at the core of the model and uses a water-driven crop growth mechanism described by AquaCrop. The tool goes beyond a representation of crop phenology and cropping systems by permitting assessment and quantification of the broader, long-term consequences of agricultural policies for Alberta's irrigation sector. It also encourages collaboration and provides a degree of transparency that gives confidence in simulation results. The paper focuses on the agricultural component of the systems model, describing the process involved; soil water and nutrients balance, crop growth, and water, temperature, salinity, and nutrients stresses, and how other disciplines can be integrated to account for the effects of interactions and feedbacks in the whole system. In later stages, other components such as livestock production systems and agricultural production economics will be integrated to the agricultural model to make the systems tool. It will capture feedback loops, time delays, and the nonlinearities of the system. Moreover, the model is designed for quick reconfiguration to different regions given parametrized crop data.

Holistic irrigation water management approach based on stochastic soil water dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizadeh, H.; Mousavi, S. J.

2012-04-01

Appreciating the essential gap between fundamental unsaturated zone transport processes and soil and water management due to low effectiveness of some of monitoring and modeling approaches, this study presents a mathematical programming model for irrigation management optimization based on stochastic soil water dynamics. The model is a nonlinear non-convex program with an economic objective function to address water productivity and profitability aspects in irrigation management through optimizing irrigation policy. Utilizing an optimization-simulation method, the model includes an eco-hydrological integrated simulation model consisting of an explicit stochastic module of soil moisture dynamics in the crop-root zone with shallow water table effects, a conceptual root-zone salt balance module, and the FAO crop yield module. Interdependent hydrology of soil unsaturated and saturated zones is treated in a semi-analytical approach in two steps. At first step analytical expressions are derived for the expected values of crop yield, total water requirement and soil water balance components assuming fixed level for shallow water table, while numerical Newton-Raphson procedure is employed at the second step to modify value of shallow water table level. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, combined with the eco-hydrological simulation model, has been used to solve the non-convex program. Benefiting from semi-analytical framework of the simulation model, the optimization-simulation method with significantly better computational performance compared to a numerical Mote-Carlo simulation-based technique has led to an effective irrigation management tool that can contribute to bridging the gap between vadose zone theory and water management practice. In addition to precisely assessing the most influential processes at a growing season time scale, one can use the developed model in large scale systems such as irrigation districts and agricultural catchments. Accordingly, the model has been applied in Dasht-e-Abbas and Ein-khosh Fakkeh Irrigation Districts (DAID and EFID) of the Karkheh Basin in southwest of Iran. The area suffers from the water scarcity problem and therefore the trade-off between the level of deficit and economical profit should be assessed. Based on the results, while the maximum net benefit has been obtained for the stress-avoidance (SA) irrigation policy, the highest water profitability, defined by economical net benefit gained from unit irrigation water volume application, has been resulted when only about 60% of water used in the SA policy is applied.

Energy intensity modeling for wastewater treatment technologies.

PubMed

Molinos-Senante, María; Sala-Garrido, Ramón; Iftimi, Adina

2018-07-15

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are energy intensive facilities; therefore increased pressure has been placed on managers and policy makers to reduce the facilities' energy use. Several studies were conducted to compare the energy intensity (EI) of WWTPs, which showed large dispersion in EI among the facilities. In the present study, the degree EI influenced WWTPs was tested using a set of technical variables by modeling the EI of a 305 WWTP sample grouped into five secondary treatment technologies. Results indicated the following two major findings: i) WWTPs using conventional activated sludge, extended aeration, trickling biofilters, and biodisks exhibited significant economies of scale in energy use; and ii) pollutant removal efficiency demonstrated low impacts on WWTP EI. The methodology and results of this study are of value to policy makers in planning new WWTPs and developing management plans to improve energy efficiency of wastewater treatment. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Market penetration of energy supply technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condap, R. J.

1980-03-01

Techniques to incorporate the concepts of profit-induced growth and risk aversion into policy-oriented optimization models of the domestic energy sector are examined. After reviewing the pertinent market penetration literature, simple mathematical programs in which the introduction of new energy technologies is constrained primarily by the reinvestment of profits are formulated. The main results involve the convergence behavior of technology production levels under various assumptions about the form of the energy demand function. Next, profitability growth constraints are embedded in a full-scale model of U.S. energy-economy interactions. A rapidly convergent algorithm is developed to utilize optimal shadow prices in the computation of profitability for individual technologies. Allowance is made for additional policy variables such as government funding and taxation. The result is an optimal deployment schedule for current and future energy technologies which is consistent with the sector's ability to finance capacity expansion.

Explaining Large-Scale Policy Change in the Turkish Health Care System: Ideas, Institutions, and Political Actors.

PubMed

Agartan, Tuba I

2015-10-01

Explaining policy change has been one of the major concerns of the health care politics and policy development literature. This article aims to explain the specific dynamics of large-scale reforms introduced within the framework of the Health Transformation Program in Turkey. It argues that confluence of the three streams - problem, policy, and politics - with the exceptional political will of the Justice and Development Party's (JDP) leaders opened up a window of opportunity for a large-scale policy change. The article also underscores the contribution of recent ideational perspectives that help explain "why" political actors in Turkey would focus on health care reform, given that there are a number of issues waiting to be addressed in the policy agenda. Examining how political actors framed problems and policies deepens our understanding of the content of the reform initiatives as well as the construction of the need to reform. The article builds on the insights of both the ideational and institutionalist perspectives when it argues that the interests, aspirations, and fears of the JDP, alongside the peculiar characteristics of the institutional context, have shaped its priorities and determination to carry out this reform initiative. Copyright © 2015 by Duke University Press.

Policy challenges and approaches for the conservation of mangrove forests in Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Friess, Daniel A; Thompson, Benjamin S; Brown, Ben; Amir, A Aldrie; Cameron, Clint; Koldewey, Heather J; Sasmito, Sigit D; Sidik, Frida

2016-10-01

Many drivers of mangrove forest loss operate over large scales and are most effectively addressed by policy interventions. However, conflicting or unclear policy objectives exist at multiple tiers of government, resulting in contradictory management decisions. To address this, we considered four approaches that are being used increasingly or could be deployed in Southeast Asia to ensure sustainable livelihoods and biodiversity conservation. First, a stronger incorporation of mangroves into marine protected areas (that currently focus largely on reefs and fisheries) could resolve some policy conflicts and ensure that mangroves do not fall through a policy gap. Second, examples of community and government comanagement exist, but achieving comanagement at scale will be important in reconciling stakeholders and addressing conflicting policy objectives. Third, private-sector initiatives could protect mangroves through existing and novel mechanisms in degraded areas and areas under future threat. Finally, payments for ecosystem services (PES) hold great promise for mangrove conservation, with carbon PES schemes (known as blue carbon) attracting attention. Although barriers remain to the implementation of PES, the potential to implement them at multiple scales exists. Closing the gap between mangrove conservation policies and action is crucial to the improved protection and management of this imperiled coastal ecosystem and to the livelihoods that depend on them. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

High-resolution model for estimating the economic and policy implications of agricultural soil salinization in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welle, Paul D.; Mauter, Meagan S.

2017-09-01

This work introduces a generalizable approach for estimating the field-scale agricultural yield losses due to soil salinization. When integrated with regional data on crop yields and prices, this model provides high-resolution estimates for revenue losses over large agricultural regions. These methods account for the uncertainty inherent in model inputs derived from satellites, experimental field data, and interpreted model results. We apply this method to estimate the effect of soil salinity on agricultural outputs in California, performing the analysis with both high-resolution (i.e. field scale) and low-resolution (i.e. county-scale) data sources to highlight the importance of spatial resolution in agricultural analysis. We estimate that soil salinity reduced agricultural revenues by 3.7 billion (1.7-7.0 billion) in 2014, amounting to 8.0 million tons of lost production relative to soil salinities below the crop-specific thresholds. When using low-resolution data sources, we find that the costs of salinization are underestimated by a factor of three. These results highlight the need for high-resolution data in agro-environmental assessment as well as the challenges associated with their integration.

A Methodology for Integrated, Multiregional Life Cycle Assessment Scenarios under Large-Scale Technological Change.

PubMed

Gibon, Thomas; Wood, Richard; Arvesen, Anders; Bergesen, Joseph D; Suh, Sangwon; Hertwich, Edgar G

2015-09-15

Climate change mitigation demands large-scale technological change on a global level and, if successfully implemented, will significantly affect how products and services are produced and consumed. In order to anticipate the life cycle environmental impacts of products under climate mitigation scenarios, we present the modeling framework of an integrated hybrid life cycle assessment model covering nine world regions. Life cycle assessment databases and multiregional input-output tables are adapted using forecasted changes in technology and resources up to 2050 under a 2 °C scenario. We call the result of this modeling "technology hybridized environmental-economic model with integrated scenarios" (THEMIS). As a case study, we apply THEMIS in an integrated environmental assessment of concentrating solar power. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions for this plant range from 33 to 95 g CO2 eq./kWh across different world regions in 2010, falling to 30-87 g CO2 eq./kWh in 2050. Using regional life cycle data yields insightful results. More generally, these results also highlight the need for systematic life cycle frameworks that capture the actual consequences and feedback effects of large-scale policies in the long term.

A self-scaling, distributed information architecture for public health, research, and clinical care.

PubMed

McMurry, Andrew J; Gilbert, Clint A; Reis, Ben Y; Chueh, Henry C; Kohane, Isaac S; Mandl, Kenneth D

2007-01-01

This study sought to define a scalable architecture to support the National Health Information Network (NHIN). This architecture must concurrently support a wide range of public health, research, and clinical care activities. The architecture fulfils five desiderata: (1) adopt a distributed approach to data storage to protect privacy, (2) enable strong institutional autonomy to engender participation, (3) provide oversight and transparency to ensure patient trust, (4) allow variable levels of access according to investigator needs and institutional policies, (5) define a self-scaling architecture that encourages voluntary regional collaborations that coalesce to form a nationwide network. Our model has been validated by a large-scale, multi-institution study involving seven medical centers for cancer research. It is the basis of one of four open architectures developed under funding from the Office of the National Coordinator of Health Information Technology, fulfilling the biosurveillance use case defined by the American Health Information Community. The model supports broad applicability for regional and national clinical information exchanges. This model shows the feasibility of an architecture wherein the requirements of care providers, investigators, and public health authorities are served by a distributed model that grants autonomy, protects privacy, and promotes participation.

On the Water-Food Nexus: an Optimization Approach for Water and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortada, Sarah; Abou Najm, Majdi; Yassine, Ali; Alameddine, Ibrahim; El-Fadel, Mutasem

2016-04-01

Water and food security is facing increased challenges with population increase, climate and land use change, as well as resource depletion coupled with pollution and unsustainable practices. Coordinated and effective management of limited natural resources have become an imperative to meet these challenges by optimizing the usage of resources under various constraints. In this study, an optimization model is developed for optimal resource allocation towards sustainable water and food security under nutritional, socio-economic, agricultural, environmental, and natural resources constraints. The core objective of this model is to maximize the composite water-food security status by recommending an optimal water and agricultural strategy. The model balances between the healthy nutritional demand side and the constrained supply side while considering the supply chain in between. It equally ensures that the population achieves recommended nutritional guidelines and population food-preferences by quantifying an optimum agricultural and water policy through transforming optimum food demands into optimum cropping policy given the water and land footprints of each crop or agricultural product. Through this process, water and food security are optimized considering factors that include crop-food transformation (food processing), water footprints, crop yields, climate, blue and green water resources, irrigation efficiency, arable land resources, soil texture, and economic policies. The model performance regarding agricultural practices and sustainable food and water security was successfully tested and verified both at a hypothetical and pilot scale levels.

Global CLEWs model - A novel application of OSeMOSYS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avgerinopoulos, Georgios; Pereira Ramos, Eunice; Howells, Mark

2017-04-01

Over the past years, studies that analyse Nexus issues from a holistic point of view and not energy, land or water separately have been gaining momentum. This project aims at giving insights into global issues through the application and the analysis of a global scale OSeMOSYS model. The latter -which is based on a fully open and amendable code- has been used successfully in the latest years as it has been the producing fully accessible energy models suitable for capacity building and policy making suggestions. This study develops a CLEWs (climate, land, energy and water) model with the objective of interrogating global challenges (e.g. increasing food demand) and international trade features, with policy priorities on food security, resource efficiency, low-carbon energy and climate change mitigation, water availability and vulnerability to water stress and floods, water quality, biodiversity and ecosystem services. It will for instance assess (i) the impact of water constraints on food security and human development (clean water for human use; industrial and energy water demands), as well as (ii) the impact of climate change on aggravating or relieving water problems.

Model-simulated and Satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) Comparisons Across Multiple Spatial Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iiames, J. S., Jr.; Cooter, E. J.

2016-12-01

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is an important parameter in assessing vegetation structure for characterizing forest canopies over large areas at broad spatial scales using satellite remote sensing data. However, satellite-derived LAI products can be limited by obstructed atmospheric conditions yielding sub-optimal values, or complete non-returns. The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Exposure Methods and Measurements and Computational Exposure Divisions are investigating the viability of supplemental modelled LAI inputs into satellite-derived data streams to support various regional and local scale air quality models for retrospective and future climate assessments. In this present study, one-year (2002) of plot level stand characteristics at four study sites located in Virginia and North Carolina (USA) are used to calibrate species-specific plant parameters in a semi-empirical biogeochemical model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was designed primarily for managed agricultural field crop ecosystems, but also includes managed woody species that span both xeric and mesic sites (e.g., mesquite, pine, oak, etc.). LAI was simulated using EPIC at a 4 km2 and 12 km2 grid coincident with the regional Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) grid. LAI comparisons were made between model-simulated and MODIS-derived LAI. Field/satellite-upscaled LAI was also compared to the corresponding MODIS LAI value. Preliminary results show field/satellite-upscaled LAI (1 km2) was 1.5 to 3 times smaller than that with the corresponding 1 km2 MODIS LAI for all four sites across all dates, with the largest discrepancies occurring at leaf-out and leaf senescence periods. Simulated LAI/MODIS LAI comparison results will be presented at the conference. Disclaimer: This work is done in support of EPA's Sustainable Healthy Communities Research Program. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency funded and conducted the research described in this paper. Although this work was reviewed by the EPA and has been approved for publication, it may not necessarily reflect official Agency policy. Mention of any trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. * Primary author and presenter (Iiames.john@epa.gov)

Achieving sustainable irrigation water withdrawals: global impacts on food security and land use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jing; Hertel, Thomas W.; Lammers, Richard B.; Prusevich, Alexander; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Grogan, Danielle S.; Frolking, Steve

2017-10-01

Unsustainable water use challenges the capacity of water resources to ensure food security and continued growth of the economy. Adaptation policies targeting future water security can easily overlook its interaction with other sustainability metrics and unanticipated local responses to the larger-scale policy interventions. Using a global partial equilibrium grid-resolving model SIMPLE-G, and coupling it with the global Water Balance Model, we simulate the consequences of reducing unsustainable irrigation for food security, land use change, and terrestrial carbon. A variety of future (2050) scenarios are considered that interact irrigation productivity with two policy interventions— inter-basin water transfers and international commodity market integration. We find that pursuing sustainable irrigation may erode other development and environmental goals due to higher food prices and cropland expansion. This results in over 800 000 more undernourished people and 0.87 GtC additional emissions. Faster total factor productivity growth in irrigated sectors will encourage more aggressive irrigation water use in the basins where irrigation vulnerability is expected to be reduced by inter-basin water transfer. By allowing for a systematic comparison of these alternative adaptations to future irrigation vulnerability, the global gridded modeling approach offers unique insights into the multiscale nature of the water scarcity challenge.

The Importance of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-based Models of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems with Particular Emphasis on Forest Ecosystems — Selected Papers from a Workshop Organized by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) at the Third Biennal Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (IEMSS) in Burlington, Vermont, USA, August 9-13, 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larocque, Guy R.; Bhatti, Jagtar S.; Liu, Jinxun; Ascough, James C.; Gordon, Andrew M.

2008-01-01

Many process-based models of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been developed for terrestrial ecosystems, including forest ecosystems. They address many basic issues of ecosystems structure and functioning, such as the role of internal feedback in ecosystem dynamics. The critical factor in these phenomena is scale, as these processes operate at scales from the minute (e.g. particulate pollution impacts on trees and other organisms) to the global (e.g. climate change). Research efforts remain important to improve the capability of such models to better represent the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems, including the C, nutrient, (e.g. N) and water cycles. Existing models are sufficiently well advanced to help decision makers develop sustainable management policies and planning of terrestrial ecosystems, as they make realistic predictions when used appropriately. However, decision makers must be aware of their limitations by having the opportunity to evaluate the uncertainty associated with process-based models (Smith and Heath, 2001 and Allen et al., 2004). The variation in scale of issues currently being addressed by modelling efforts makes the evaluation of uncertainty a daunting task.

Development and application of a coupled bio-geochmical and hydrological model for point and non-point source river water pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohlert, T.

2007-12-01

The aim of this paper is to present recent developments of an integrated water- and N-balance model for the assessment of land use changes on water and N-fluxes for meso-scale river catchments. The semi-distributed water-balance model SWAT was coupled with algorithms of the bio-geochemical model DNDC as well as the model CropSyst. The new model that is further denoted as SWAT-N was tested with leaching data from a long- term lysimeter experiment as well as results from a 5-years sampling campaign that was conducted at the outlet of the meso-scale catchment of the River Dill (Germany). The model efficiency for N-load as well as the spatial representation of N-load along the river channel that was tested with results taken from longitudinal profiles show that the accuracy of the model has improved due to the integration of the aforementioned process-oriented models. After model development and model testing, SWAT-N was then used for the assessment of the EU agricultural policy (CAP reform) on land use change and consequent changes on N-fluxes within the Dill Catchment. giessen.de/geb/volltexte/2007/4531/

The management of health care service quality. A physician perspective.

PubMed

Bobocea, L; Gheorghe, I R; Spiridon, St; Gheorghe, C M; Purcarea, V L

2016-01-01

Applying marketing in health care services is presently an essential element for every manager or policy maker. In order to be successful, a health care organization has to identify an accurate measurement scale for defining service quality due to competitive pressure and cost values. The most widely employed scale in the services sector is SERVQUAL scale. In spite of being successfully adopted in fields such as brokerage and banking, experts concluded that the SERVQUAL scale should be modified depending on the specific context. Moreover, the SERVQUAL scale focused on the consumer's perspective regarding service quality. While service quality was measured with the help of SERVQUAL scale, other experts identified a structure-process-outcome design, which, they thought, would be more suitable for health care services. This approach highlights a different perspective on investigating the service quality, namely, the physician's perspective. Further, we believe that the Seven Prong Model for Improving Service Quality has been adopted in order to effectively measure the health care service in a Romanian context from a physician's perspective.

The role of self-interest in elite bargaining.

PubMed

LeVeck, Brad L; Hughes, D Alex; Fowler, James H; Hafner-Burton, Emilie; Victor, David G

2014-12-30

One of the best-known and most replicated laboratory results in behavioral economics is that bargainers frequently reject low offers, even when it harms their material self-interest. This finding could have important implications for international negotiations on many problems facing humanity today, because models of international bargaining assume exactly the opposite: that policy makers are rational and self-interested. However, it is unknown whether elites who engage in diplomatic bargaining will similarly reject low offers because past research has been based almost exclusively on convenience samples of undergraduates, members of the general public, or small-scale societies rather than highly experienced elites who design and bargain over policy. Using a unique sample of 102 policy and business elites who have an average of 21 y of practical experience conducting international diplomacy or policy strategy, we show that, compared with undergraduates and the general public, elites are actually more likely to reject low offers when playing a standard "ultimatum game" that assesses how players bargain over a fixed resource. Elites with more experience tend to make even higher demands, suggesting that this tendency only increases as policy makers advance to leadership positions. This result contradicts assumptions of rational self-interested behavior that are standard in models of international bargaining, and it suggests that the adoption of global agreements on international trade, climate change, and other important problems will not depend solely on the interests of individual countries, but also on whether these accords are seen as equitable to all member states.

The role of self-interest in elite bargaining

PubMed Central

LeVeck, Brad L.; Hughes, D. Alex; Fowler, James H.; Hafner-Burton, Emilie; Victor, David G.

2014-01-01

One of the best-known and most replicated laboratory results in behavioral economics is that bargainers frequently reject low offers, even when it harms their material self-interest. This finding could have important implications for international negotiations on many problems facing humanity today, because models of international bargaining assume exactly the opposite: that policy makers are rational and self-interested. However, it is unknown whether elites who engage in diplomatic bargaining will similarly reject low offers because past research has been based almost exclusively on convenience samples of undergraduates, members of the general public, or small-scale societies rather than highly experienced elites who design and bargain over policy. Using a unique sample of 102 policy and business elites who have an average of 21 y of practical experience conducting international diplomacy or policy strategy, we show that, compared with undergraduates and the general public, elites are actually more likely to reject low offers when playing a standard “ultimatum game” that assesses how players bargain over a fixed resource. Elites with more experience tend to make even higher demands, suggesting that this tendency only increases as policy makers advance to leadership positions. This result contradicts assumptions of rational self-interested behavior that are standard in models of international bargaining, and it suggests that the adoption of global agreements on international trade, climate change, and other important problems will not depend solely on the interests of individual countries, but also on whether these accords are seen as equitable to all member states. PMID:25512497

Modeling Joint Climate and Bioenergy Policies: Challenges of integrating economic and environmental data. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellwinckel, C. M.; West, T. O.; de La Torre Ugarte, D.; Perlack, R.

2010-12-01

In the coming decades agriculture will be asked to play a significant role in reducing carbon emissions and reducing our use of foreign oil. The Renewable Fuels Standard combined with possible climate legislation will alter the economic landscape effecting agricultural land use decisions. The joint implementation of these two policies could potentially work against one another. We have integrated biogeophysical data into the POLYSYS economic model to analyze the effects of climate change and bioenergy legislation upon regional land-use change, soil carbon, carbon emissions, biofuel production, and agricultural income. The purpose of the analysis was to use the integrated model to identify carbon and bioenergy policies that could act synergistically to meet Renewable Fuel Standard goals, reduce net emissions of carbon, and increase agricultural incomes. The heterogeneous nature of soils, crop yields, and management practices presented challenges to the modeling process. Regional variation in physical data can significantly affect economic land use decisions and patterns. For this reason, we disaggregated the economic component of the model to the county level, with sub-county soils and land-use data informing the county level decisions. Modeling carbon offset dynamics presented unique challenges, as the physical responses of local soils impact the economic incentives offered, and conversely, the resulting land-use changes impact characteristics of local soils. Additionally, using data from different resolution levels led to questions of appropriate scale of analysis. This presentation will describe the integrated model, present some significant results from our analysis, and discuss appropriate steps forward given what we learned.

Impact of Data Placement on Resilience in Large-Scale Object Storage Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carns, Philip; Harms, Kevin; Jenkins, John

Distributed object storage architectures have become the de facto standard for high-performance storage in big data, cloud, and HPC computing. Object storage deployments using commodity hardware to reduce costs often employ object replication as a method to achieve data resilience. Repairing object replicas after failure is a daunting task for systems with thousands of servers and billions of objects, however, and it is increasingly difficult to evaluate such scenarios at scale on realworld systems. Resilience and availability are both compromised if objects are not repaired in a timely manner. In this work we leverage a high-fidelity discrete-event simulation model tomore » investigate replica reconstruction on large-scale object storage systems with thousands of servers, billions of objects, and petabytes of data. We evaluate the behavior of CRUSH, a well-known object placement algorithm, and identify configuration scenarios in which aggregate rebuild performance is constrained by object placement policies. After determining the root cause of this bottleneck, we then propose enhancements to CRUSH and the usage policies atop it to enable scalable replica reconstruction. We use these methods to demonstrate a simulated aggregate rebuild rate of 410 GiB/s (within 5% of projected ideal linear scaling) on a 1,024-node commodity storage system. We also uncover an unexpected phenomenon in rebuild performance based on the characteristics of the data stored on the system.« less

Using equitable impact sensitive tool (EQUIST) and knowledge translation to promote evidence to policy link in maternal and child health: report of first EQUIST training workshop in Nigeria.

PubMed

Uneke, Chigozie Jesse; Sombie, Issiaka; Uro-Chukwu, Henry Chukwuemeka; Johnson, Ermel; Okonofua, Friday

2017-01-01

The Equitable Impact Sensitive Tool (EQUIST) designed by UNICEF and knowledge translation (KT) are important strategies that can help policymakers to improve equity and evidence-informed policy making in maternal, newborn and child health (MNCH). The purpose of this study was to improve the knowledge and capacity of an MNCH implementation research team (IRT) and policy makers to use EQUIST and KT. A modified "before and after" intervention study design was used in which outcomes were measured on the target participants both before the intervention (workshop) is implemented and after. A 5-point likert scale according to the degree of adequacy was employed. A three -day intensive EQUIST and KT training workshop was organized in Edo State, Nigeria with 45 participants in attendance. Some of the topics covered included: (i) Knowledge translation models, measures & tools; (ii) Policy review, analysis and contextualization; (iii) Policy formulation and legislation process; (iv) EQUIST Overview & Theory of change; (v) EQUIST's situation analysis, scenario analysis and scenario comparison. The pre-workshop mean of understanding of use of KT ranged from 2.02-3.41, while the post-workshop mean ranged from 3.24-4.30. Pre-workshop mean of understanding of use of EQUIST ranged from 1.66-2.41, while the post-workshop mean ranged from 3.56-4.54 on the 5point scale. The percentage increase in mean of KT and EQUIST at the end of the workshop ranged from 8.0%-88.1% and 65.6%-158.4% respectively. Findings of this study suggest that policymakers' and researchers KT and EQUSIT use competence relevant to evidence-informed policymaking can be enhanced through training workshop.

Using equitable impact sensitive tool (EQUIST) and knowledge translation to promote evidence to policy link in maternal and child health: report of first EQUIST training workshop in Nigeria

PubMed Central

Uneke, Chigozie Jesse; Sombie, Issiaka; Uro-Chukwu, Henry Chukwuemeka; Johnson, Ermel; Okonofua, Friday

2017-01-01

The Equitable Impact Sensitive Tool (EQUIST) designed by UNICEF and knowledge translation (KT) are important strategies that can help policymakers to improve equity and evidence-informed policy making in maternal, newborn and child health (MNCH). The purpose of this study was to improve the knowledge and capacity of an MNCH implementation research team (IRT) and policy makers to use EQUIST and KT. A modified “before and after” intervention study design was used in which outcomes were measured on the target participants both before the intervention (workshop) is implemented and after. A 5-point likert scale according to the degree of adequacy was employed. A three -day intensive EQUIST and KT training workshop was organized in Edo State, Nigeria with 45 participants in attendance. Some of the topics covered included: (i) Knowledge translation models, measures & tools; (ii) Policy review, analysis and contextualization; (iii) Policy formulation and legislation process; (iv) EQUIST Overview & Theory of change; (v) EQUIST's situation analysis, scenario analysis and scenario comparison. The pre-workshop mean of understanding of use of KT ranged from 2.02-3.41, while the post-workshop mean ranged from 3.24-4.30. Pre-workshop mean of understanding of use of EQUIST ranged from 1.66-2.41, while the post-workshop mean ranged from 3.56-4.54 on the 5point scale. The percentage increase in mean of KT and EQUIST at the end of the workshop ranged from 8.0%-88.1% and 65.6%-158.4% respectively. Findings of this study suggest that policymakers' and researchers KT and EQUSIT use competence relevant to evidence-informed policymaking can be enhanced through training workshop. PMID:29158860

Inconsistent application of environmental laws and policies to California's oak woodlands

Treesearch

Gregory A. Giusti; Adina M. Merenlender

2002-01-01

We examine inconsistencies in the application of environmental laws and policies to California's oak woodlands and associated resources. Specifically, large-scale vegetation removals receive different levels of environmental oversight depending on location, tree species, and the final land use designation. Hence, situations arise where the scale of impacts to the...

Scaling up Comprehensive Sexuality Education in Nigeria: From National Policy to Nationwide Application

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huaynoca, Silvia; Chandra-Mouli, Venkatraman; Yaqub, Nuhu, Jr.; Denno, Donna Marie

2014-01-01

Nigeria is one of few countries that reports having translated national policies on school-based comprehensive sexuality education (CSE) into near-nationwide implementation. We analysed data using the World Health Organization-ExpandNet framework, which provides a systematic structure for planning and managing the scaling up of health innovations.…

A Scaling Model for the Anthropocene Climate Variability with Projections to 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphael; Lovejoy, Shaun

2017-04-01

The determination of the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing is a fundamental climate science problem with important policy implications. We use a scaling model, with a limited set of parameters, which can directly calculate the forced globally-average surface air temperature response to anthropogenic and natural forcings. At timescales larger than an inner scale τ, which we determine as the ocean-atmosphere coupling scale at around 2 years, the global system responds, approximately, linearly, so that the variability may be decomposed into additive forced and internal components. The Ruelle response theory extends the classical linear response theory for small perturbations to systems far from equilibrium. Our model thus relates radiative forcings to a forced temperature response by convolution with a suitable Green's function, or climate response function. Motivated by scaling symmetries which allow for long range dependence, we assume a general scaling form, a scaling climate response function (SCRF) which is able to produce a wide range of responses: a power-law truncated at τ. This allows us to analytically calculate the climate sensitivity at different time scales, yielding a one-to-one relation from the transient climate response to the equilibrium climate sensitivity which are estimated, respectively, as 1.6+0.3-0.2K and 2.4+1.3-0.6K at the 90 % confidence level. The model parameters are estimated within a Bayesian framework, with a fractional Gaussian noise error model as the internal variability, from forcing series, instrumental surface temperature datasets and CMIP5 GCMs Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario runs. This observation based model is robust and projections for the coming century are made following the RCP scenario 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, yielding in the year 2100, respectively : 1.5 +0.3)_{-0.2K, 2.3 ± 0.4 K and 4.0 ± 0.6 K at the 90 % confidence level. For comparison, the associated projections from a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble(MME) (32 models) are: 1.7 ± 0.8 K, 2.6 ± 0.8 K and 4.8 ± 1.3 K. Therefore, our projection uncertainty is less than half the structural uncertainty of this CMIP5 MME.

Using GIS and Teledetection data to assess mobility and land consumption in polynucleated landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marmolejo Duarte, Carlos; Tornés Fernández, Moira

2014-03-01

Polycentrism has become the keystone in a major number of regional and urban policies, since it has been seen as a sustainable and equilibrated urban model. In this paper, the problem has been focused in case study the biggest metropolitan areas in Spain and pretends test whether polycentric urban growth does effectively reduce land consumption and travel-to-work journeys, protecting in this way agricultural and forest areas around cities and at the same time reducing energy and air emissions produced by cars. The methodology used has been departed from land-use, transport and census data, and using ArcGIS and TransCAD a group of spatial indicators is calculated and introduced in a family of regression models, where explained variables are per capita land consumption and excess commuting respectively. The results suggest that polynucleation has little effect both in the reduction of land consumption and excess commuting. On the contrary, other variables associated to urban form do highly influence land and mobility patterns, such as fragmentation of urban fabrics, job ratio balance, and the diversity of economic activities and housing offer. Such conclusions may shed light in the design of urban policies, and focus the attention on the definition of small-scale urban variables instead of structural ones at metropolitan scale.

Scaling up HIV self-testing in sub-Saharan Africa: a review of technology, policy and evidence.

PubMed

Indravudh, Pitchaya P; Choko, Augustine T; Corbett, Elizabeth L

2018-02-01

HIV self-testing (HIVST) can provide complementary coverage to existing HIV testing services and improve knowledge of status among HIV-infected individuals. This review summarizes the current technology, policy and evidence landscape in sub-Saharan Africa and priorities within a rapidly evolving field. HIVST is moving towards scaled implementation, with the release of WHO guidelines, WHO prequalification of the first HIVST product, price reductions of HIVST products and a growing product pipeline. Multicountry evidence from southern and eastern Africa confirms high feasibility, acceptability and accuracy across many delivery models and populations, with minimal harms. Evidence on the effectiveness of HIVST on increased testing coverage is strong, while evidence on demand generation for follow-on HIV prevention and treatment services and cost-effective delivery is emerging. Despite these developments, HIVST delivery remains limited outside of pilot implementation. Important technology gaps include increasing availability of more sensitive HIVST products in low and middle-income countries. Regulatory and postmarket surveillance systems for HIVST also require further development. Randomized trials evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness under multiple distribution models, including unrestricted delivery and with a focus on linkage to HIV prevention and treatment, remain priorities. Diversification of studies from west and central Africa and around blood-based products should be addressed.

A model of urban scaling laws based on distance dependent interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, Fabiano L.; Meirelles, Joao; Ferreira, Fernando F.; Neto, Camilo Rodrigues

2017-03-01

Socio-economic related properties of a city grow faster than a linear relationship with the population, in a log-log plot, the so-called superlinear scaling. Conversely, the larger a city, the more efficient it is in the use of its infrastructure, leading to a sublinear scaling on these variables. In this work, we addressed a simple explanation for those scaling laws in cities based on the interaction range between the citizens and on the fractal properties of the cities. To this purpose, we introduced a measure of social potential which captured the influence of social interaction on the economic performance and the benefits of amenities in the case of infrastructure offered by the city. We assumed that the population density depends on the fractal dimension and on the distance-dependent interactions between individuals. The model suggests that when the city interacts as a whole, and not just as a set of isolated parts, there is improvement of the socio-economic indicators. Moreover, the bigger the interaction range between citizens and amenities, the bigger the improvement of the socio-economic indicators and the lower the infrastructure costs of the city. We addressed how public policies could take advantage of these properties to improve cities development, minimizing negative effects. Furthermore, the model predicts that the sum of the scaling exponents of social-economic and infrastructure variables are 2, as observed in the literature. Simulations with an agent-based model are confronted with the theoretical approach and they are compatible with the empirical evidences.

A model of urban scaling laws based on distance dependent interactions.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Fabiano L; Meirelles, Joao; Ferreira, Fernando F; Neto, Camilo Rodrigues

2017-03-01

Socio-economic related properties of a city grow faster than a linear relationship with the population, in a log-log plot, the so-called superlinear scaling . Conversely, the larger a city, the more efficient it is in the use of its infrastructure, leading to a sublinear scaling on these variables. In this work, we addressed a simple explanation for those scaling laws in cities based on the interaction range between the citizens and on the fractal properties of the cities. To this purpose, we introduced a measure of social potential which captured the influence of social interaction on the economic performance and the benefits of amenities in the case of infrastructure offered by the city. We assumed that the population density depends on the fractal dimension and on the distance-dependent interactions between individuals. The model suggests that when the city interacts as a whole, and not just as a set of isolated parts, there is improvement of the socio-economic indicators. Moreover, the bigger the interaction range between citizens and amenities, the bigger the improvement of the socio-economic indicators and the lower the infrastructure costs of the city. We addressed how public policies could take advantage of these properties to improve cities development, minimizing negative effects. Furthermore, the model predicts that the sum of the scaling exponents of social-economic and infrastructure variables are 2, as observed in the literature. Simulations with an agent-based model are confronted with the theoretical approach and they are compatible with the empirical evidences.

Results and Lessons Learned from a Coupled Social and Physical Hydrology Model: Testing Alternative Water Management Policies and Institutional Structures Using Agent-Based Modeling and Regional Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, J.; Lammers, R. B.; Prousevitch, A.; Ozik, J.; Altaweel, M.; Collier, N. T.; Kliskey, A. D.; Alessa, L.

2015-12-01

Water Management in the U.S. Southwest is under increasing scrutiny as many areas endure persistent drought. The impact of these prolonged dry conditions is a product of regional climate and hydrological conditions, but also of a highly engineered water management infrastructure and a complex web of social arrangements whereby water is allocated, shared, exchanged, used, re-used, and finally consumed. We coupled an agent-based model with a regional hydrological model to understand the dynamics in one richly studied and highly populous area: southern Arizona, U.S.A., including metropolitan Phoenix and Tucson. There, multiple management entities representing an array of municipalities and other water providers and customers, including private companies and Native American tribes are enmeshed in a complex legal and economic context in which water is bought, leased, banked, and exchanged in a variety of ways and on multiple temporal and physical scales. A recurrent question in the literature of adaptive management is the impact of management structure on overall system performance. To explore this, we constructed an agent-based model to capture this social complexity, and coupled this with a physical hydrological model that we used to drive the system under a variety of water stress scenarios and to assess the regional impact of the social system's performance. We report the outcomes of ensembles of runs in which varieties of alternative policy constraints and management strategies are considered. We hope to contribute to policy discussions in this area and connected and legislatively similar areas (such as California) as current conditions change and existing legal and policy structures are revised. Additionally, we comment on the challenges of integrating models that ostensibly are in different domains (physical and social) but that independently represent a system in which physical processes and human actions are closely intertwined and difficult to disentangle.

Probabilistic Decision Tools for Determining Impacts of Agricultural Development Policy on Household Nutrition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitney, Cory W.; Lanzanova, Denis; Muchiri, Caroline; Shepherd, Keith D.; Rosenstock, Todd S.; Krawinkel, Michael; Tabuti, John R. S.; Luedeling, Eike

2018-03-01

Governments around the world have agreed to end hunger and food insecurity and to improve global nutrition, largely through changes to agriculture and food systems. However, they are faced with a lot of uncertainty when making policy decisions, since any agricultural changes will influence social and biophysical systems, which could yield either positive or negative nutrition outcomes. We outline a holistic probability modeling approach with Bayesian Network (BN) models for nutritional impacts resulting from agricultural development policy. The approach includes the elicitation of expert knowledge for impact model development, including sensitivity analysis and value of information calculations. It aims at a generalizable methodology that can be applied in a wide range of contexts. To showcase this approach, we develop an impact model of Vision 2040, Uganda's development strategy, which, among other objectives, seeks to transform the country's agricultural landscape from traditional systems to large-scale commercial agriculture. Model results suggest that Vision 2040 is likely to have negative outcomes for the rural livelihoods it intends to support; it may have no appreciable influence on household hunger but, by influencing preferences for and access to quality nutritional foods, may increase the prevalence of micronutrient deficiency. The results highlight the trade-offs that must be negotiated when making decisions regarding agriculture for nutrition, and the capacity of BNs to make these trade-offs explicit. The work illustrates the value of BNs for supporting evidence-based agricultural development decisions.

Modeling Pollinator Community Response to Contrasting Bioenergy Scenarios

PubMed Central

Bennett, Ashley B.; Meehan, Timothy D.; Gratton, Claudio; Isaacs, Rufus

2014-01-01

In the United States, policy initiatives aimed at increasing sources of renewable energy are advancing bioenergy production, especially in the Midwest region, where agricultural landscapes dominate. While policy directives are focused on renewable fuel production, biodiversity and ecosystem services will be impacted by the land-use changes required to meet production targets. Using data from field observations, we developed empirical models for predicting abundance, diversity, and community composition of flower-visiting bees based on land cover. We used these models to explore how bees might respond under two contrasting bioenergy scenarios: annual bioenergy crop production and perennial grassland bioenergy production. In the two scenarios, 600,000 ha of marginal annual crop land or marginal grassland were converted to perennial grassland or annual row crop bioenergy production, respectively. Model projections indicate that expansion of annual bioenergy crop production at this scale will reduce bee abundance by 0 to 71%, and bee diversity by 0 to 28%, depending on location. In contrast, converting annual crops on marginal soil to perennial grasslands could increase bee abundance from 0 to 600% and increase bee diversity between 0 and 53%. Our analysis of bee community composition suggested a similar pattern, with bee communities becoming less diverse under annual bioenergy crop production, whereas bee composition transitioned towards a more diverse community dominated by wild bees under perennial bioenergy crop production. Models, like those employed here, suggest that bioenergy policies have important consequences for pollinator conservation. PMID:25365559

A multi-dimensional analysis of the upper Rio Grande-San Luis Valley social-ecological system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mix, Ken

The Upper Rio Grande (URG), located in the San Luis Valley (SLV) of southern Colorado, is the primary contributor to streamflow to the Rio Grande Basin, upstream of the confluence of the Rio Conchos at Presidio, TX. The URG-SLV includes a complex irrigation-dependent agricultural social-ecological system (SES), which began development in 1852, and today generates more than 30% of the SLV revenue. The diversions of Rio Grande water for irrigation in the SLV have had a disproportionate impact on the downstream portion of the river. These diversions caused the flow to cease at Ciudad Juarez, Mexico in the late 1880s, creating international conflict. Similarly, low flows in New Mexico and Texas led to interstate conflict. Understanding changes in the URG-SLV that led to this event and the interactions among various drivers of change in the URG-SLV is a difficult task. One reason is that complex social-ecological systems are adaptive, contain feedbacks, emergent properties, cross-scale linkages, large-scale dynamics and non-linearities. Further, most analyses of SES to date have been qualitative, utilizing conceptual models to understand driver interactions. This study utilizes both qualitative and quantitative techniques to develop an innovative approach for analyzing driver interactions in the URG-SLV. Five drivers were identified for the URG-SLV social-ecological system: water (streamflow), water rights, climate, agriculture, and internal and external water policy. The drivers contained several longitudes (data aspect) relevant to the system, except water policy, for which only discreet events were present. Change point and statistical analyses were applied to the longitudes to identify quantifiable changes, to allow detection of cross-scale linkages between drivers, and presence of feedback cycles. Agricultural was identified as the driver signal. Change points for agricultural expansion defined four distinct periods: 1852--1923, 1924--1948, 1949--1978 and 1979--2007. Changes in streamflow, water allocations and water policy were observed in all agriculture periods. Cross-scale linkages were also evident between climate and streamflow; policy and water rights; and agriculture, groundwater pumping and streamflow.

Policy Options for Education Reform: A Policy Analysis Paper. Discussion Draft.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansen, Kenneth H.

This document examines approaches to educational reform currently under consideration in the Pacific Northwest and discusses policy issues involved with these reform efforts. The introduction discusses broad-scale policy issues, including the setting of priorities amid the diversity of reforms, the clarifying of beliefs and selection of changes…

Assessing the harms of cannabis cultivation in Belgium.

PubMed

Paoli, Letizia; Decorte, Tom; Kersten, Loes

2015-03-01

Since the 1990s, a shift from the importation of foreign cannabis to domestic cultivation has taken place in Belgium, as it has in many other countries. This shift has prompted Belgian policy-making bodies to prioritize the repression of cannabis cultivation. Against this background, the article aims to systematically map and assess for the first time ever the harms associated with cannabis cultivation, covering the whole spectrum of growers. This study is based on a web survey primarily targeting small-scale growers (N=1293) and on three interconnected sets of qualitative data on large-scale growers and traffickers (34 closed criminal proceedings, interviews with 32 criminal justice experts, and with 17 large-scale cannabis growers and three traffickers). The study relied on Greenfield and Paoli's (2013) harm assessment framework to identify the harms associated with cannabis cultivation and to assess the incidence, severity and causes of such harms. Cannabis cultivation has become endemic in Belgium. Despite that, it generates, for Belgium, limited harms of medium-low or medium priority. Large-scale growers tend to produce more harms than the small-scale ones. Virtually all the harms associated with cannabis cultivation are the result of the current criminalizing policies. Given the spread of cannabis cultivation and Belgium's position in Europe, reducing the supply of cannabis does not appear to be a realistic policy objective. Given the limited harms generated, there is scarce scientific justification to prioritize cannabis cultivation in Belgian law enforcement strategies. As most harms are generated by large-scale growers, it is this category of cultivator, if any, which should be the focus of law enforcement repression. Given the policy origin of most harms, policy-makers should seek to develop policies likely to reduce such harms. At the same time, further research is needed to comparatively assess the harms associated with cannabis cultivation (and trafficking) with those arising from use. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Managing expectations from our land: 3 is the magic number.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creamer, Rachel; Schulte, Rogier; O'Sullivan, Lilian; Staes, Jan; Vrebos, Dirk; Jones, Arwyn

2017-04-01

In recent years, sustainable food production has risen to the top of the EU policy agenda. Europe's land is now expected to provide multiple ecosystem services (soil functions) for society. These include: i) food production, ii) carbon storage, iii) the provision of clean water, iv) habitats for biodiversity and v) nutrient cycling. A tension exists between the demand for and supply of these soil functions on our land. We cannot expect all soil functions to be delivered simultaneously to optimal capacity, but with careful decision making we can optimise our soils to provide multiple functions. Our societal demands also vary in spatial extent, for example we may require nutrient cycling and food production to be focussed at local scale, but carbon sequestration may be a national target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Every day, farmers make decisions on how they manage their land and soil. At the same time, national and European policy makers make long-term decisions on how to manage their soil resources at larger scales. Therefore, the contemporary challenge for researchers and stakeholders is to link the decision making on land management across scales, so that the practicalities of how farmers make decisions is reflected in policy formation and that policies enable farmers to make decisions that meet EU policy objectives. LANDMARK (LAND Management: Assessment, Research, Knowledge base) is a Horizon 2020 consortium of 22 partner institutes from 14 EU countries plus Switzerland, China and Brazil. The primary objective of the LANDMARK project is to provide a policy framework for Functional Land Management at EU level. This implies the identification of policy instruments that could guide the management of soil functions at the appropriate scale. This presentation will provide an overview of the challenge faced across these scales, from local to European, it will demonstrate how local decision making must try and account for the delivery of at least three soil functions to contribute to sustainable soil management.

Identifying Hotspots in Land and Water Resource Uses on the Way towards Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazzo, A.; Havlik, P.; Van Dijk, M.; Leclere, D.

2017-12-01

Agriculture plays a key role in achieving adequate food, water, and energy security (as summarized in the Sustainable Development Goals SDGs) as populations grow and incomes rise. Yet, agriculture is confronted with an enormous challenge to produce more using less. Land and water resources are projected to be strongly affected by climate change demand and agriculture faces growing competition in the demand for these resources. To formulate policies that contribute to achieving the SDGs, policy makers need assessments that can anticipate and navigate the trade-offs within the water/land/energy domain. Assessments that identify locations or hotspots where trade-offs between the multiple, competing users of resources may exist must consider both the local scale impacts of resource use as well as regional scale socioeconomic trends, policies, and international markets that further contribute to or mitigate the impacts of resource trade-offs. In this study, we quantify impacts of increased pressure on the land system to provide agricultural and bioenergy products under increasingly scarce water resources using a global economic and land use model, GLOBIOM. We model the supply and demand of agricultural products at a high spatial resolution in an integrated approach that considers the impacts of global change (socioeconomic and climatic) on the biophysical availability and the growing competition of land and water. We also developed a biodiversity module that relates changes in land uses to changes in local species richness and global species extinction risk. We find that water available for agriculture and freshwater ecosystems decreases due to climate change and growing demand from other sectors (domestic, energy and industry) (Fig 1). Climate change impacts will limit areas suitable for irrigation and may lead to an expansion of rainfed areas in biodiverse areas. Impacts on food security from climate change are significant in some regions (SSA and SA) and policies that protect environmental stream flows compound that effect (Fig 2).

The family child care home environment and children's diet quality.

PubMed

Benjamin-Neelon, Sara E; Vaughn, Amber E; Tovar, Alison; Østbye, Truls; Mazzucca, Stephanie; Ward, Dianne S

2018-07-01

Developing healthy eating behaviors and food preferences in early childhood may help establish future healthy diets. Large numbers of children spend time in child care, but little research has assessed the nutritional quality of meals and snacks in family child care homes. Therefore, it is important to assess foods and beverages provided, policies related to nutrition and feeding children, and interactions between providers and children during mealtimes. We examined associations between the nutrition environments of family child care homes and children's diet quality. We assessed the nutrition environments of 166 family child care homes using the Environment and Policy Assessment and Observation (EPAO) (scores range: 0-21). We also recorded foods and beverages consumed by 496 children in care and calculated healthy eating index (HEI) (scores range: 0-100). We used a mixed effects linear regression model to examine the association between the EPAO nutrition environment (and EPAO sub-scales) and child HEI, controlling for potential confounders. Family child care homes had a mean (standard deviation, SD) of 7.2 (3.6) children in care, 74.1% of providers were black or African American, and children had a mean (SD) age of 35.7 (11.4) months. In adjusted multivariable models, higher EPAO nutrition score was associated with increased child HEI score (1.16; 95% CI: 0.34, 1.98; p = 0.006). Higher scores on EPAO sub-scales for foods provided (8.98; 95% CI: 3.94, 14.01; p = 0.0006), nutrition education (5.37; 95% CI: 0.80, 9.94; p = 0.02), and nutrition policy (2.36; 95% CI: 0.23, 4.49; p = 0.03) were all associated with greater child HEI score. Foods and beverages served, in addition to nutrition education and nutrition policies in family child care homes, may be promising intervention targets for improving child diet quality. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Decision-Making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights From a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh

2018-03-01

Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

2016-10-01

Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

Scale Issues in Modeling the Water Resources Sector in National Economic Models: A Case study of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strzepek, K. M.; Kirshen, P.; Yohe, G.

2001-05-01

The fundamental theme of this research was to investigate tradeoffs in model resolution for modeling water resources in the context of national economic development and capital investment decisions.. Based on a case study of China, the research team has developed water resource models at relatively fine scales, then investigated how they can be aggregated to regional or national scales and for use in national level planning decisions or global scale integrated assessment models of food and/or environmental change issues. The team has developed regional water supply and water demand functions.. Simplifying and aggregating the supply and demand functions will allow reduced form functions of the water sector for inclusion in large scale national economic models. Water Supply Cost functions were developed looking at both surface and groundwater supplies. Surface Water: Long time series of flows at the mouths of the 36 major river sub-basins in China are used in conjunction with different basin reservoir storage quantities to obtain storage-yield curves. These are then combined with reservoir and transmission cost data to obtain yield-cost or surface water demand curves. The methodology to obtain the long time series of flows for each basin is to fit a simple abcd water balance model to each basin. The costs of reservoir storage have been estimated by using a methodology developed in the USA that relates marginal storage costs to existing storage, slope and geological conditions. USA costs functions have then been adjusted to Chinese costs. The costs of some actual dams in China were used to "ground-truth" the methodology. Groundwater: The purpose of the groundwater work is to estimate the recharge in each basin, and the depths and quality of water of aquifers. A byproduct of the application of the abcd water balance model is the recharge. Depths and quality of aquifers are being taken from many separate reports on groundwater in different parts of China; we have been unable to find any global or regional datasets of groundwater.. Combining Surface and Groundwater Supply Functions Water Demand Curves. Water Use data is reported on political regions. Water Supply is reported and modeled on river basin regions. It is necessary to allocate water demands to river basins. To accomplish this China's 9 major river basins were divided into 36 hydroeconomic regions. The counties were then allocated to one of the 36-hydroeconomic zones. The county-level water use data was aggregated to 5 major water use sectors: 1)industry; 2)urban municipal and vegetable gardens: 3) major irrigation; 4) Energy and 5)Other agriculture (forestry, pasture; fishery). Sectoral Demand functions that include price and income elasticity were developed for the 5 sectors for each of the 9 major river basin. The supply and demand curves were aggregated at a variety of geographical scales as well as levels of economic sectoral aggregation. Implications for investment and sustainable development policies were examined for the various aggregation using partial and general equilibrium modeling of the Chinese economy. These results and policy implications for China as well as insights and recommendation for other developing countries will be presented.

The transparency, reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land-use and land-cover change models.

PubMed

Rosa, Isabel M D; Ahmed, Sadia E; Ewers, Robert M

2014-06-01

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is one of the largest drivers of biodiversity loss and carbon emissions globally. We use the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and South-East Asia as a case study to investigate spatial predictive models of LULC change. Current predictions differ in their modelling approaches, are highly variable and often poorly validated. We carried out a quantitative review of 48 modelling methodologies, considering model spatio-temporal scales, inputs, calibration and validation methods. In addition, we requested model outputs from each of the models reviewed and carried out a quantitative assessment of model performance for tropical LULC predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. We highlight existing shortfalls in the discipline and uncover three key points that need addressing to improve the transparency, reliability and utility of tropical LULC change models: (1) a lack of openness with regard to describing and making available the model inputs and model code; (2) the difficulties of conducting appropriate model validations; and (3) the difficulty that users of tropical LULC models face in obtaining the model predictions to help inform their own analyses and policy decisions. We further draw comparisons between tropical LULC change models in the tropics and the modelling approaches and paradigms in other disciplines, and suggest that recent changes in the climate change and species distribution modelling communities may provide a pathway that tropical LULC change modellers may emulate to further improve the discipline. Climate change models have exerted considerable influence over public perceptions of climate change and now impact policy decisions at all political levels. We suggest that tropical LULC change models have an equally high potential to influence public opinion and impact the development of land-use policies based on plausible future scenarios, but, to do that reliably may require further improvements in the discipline. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Policy Driven Development: Flexible Policy Insertion for Large Scale Systems.

PubMed

Demchak, Barry; Krüger, Ingolf

2012-07-01

The success of a software system depends critically on how well it reflects and adapts to stakeholder requirements. Traditional development methods often frustrate stakeholders by creating long latencies between requirement articulation and system deployment, especially in large scale systems. One source of latency is the maintenance of policy decisions encoded directly into system workflows at development time, including those involving access control and feature set selection. We created the Policy Driven Development (PDD) methodology to address these development latencies by enabling the flexible injection of decision points into existing workflows at runtime , thus enabling policy composition that integrates requirements furnished by multiple, oblivious stakeholder groups. Using PDD, we designed and implemented a production cyberinfrastructure that demonstrates policy and workflow injection that quickly implements stakeholder requirements, including features not contemplated in the original system design. PDD provides a path to quickly and cost effectively evolve such applications over a long lifetime.

Assessing restrictiveness of national alcohol marketing policies.

PubMed

Esser, Marissa B; Jernigan, David H

2014-01-01

To develop an approach for monitoring national alcohol marketing policies globally, an area of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Alcohol Strategy. Data on restrictiveness of alcohol marketing policies came from the 2002 and 2008 WHO Global Surveys on Alcohol and Health. We included four scales in a sensitivity analysis to determine optimal weights to score countries on their marketing policies and applied the selected scale to assess national marketing policy restrictiveness. Nearly, 36% of countries had no marketing restrictions. The overall restrictiveness levels were not significantly different between 2002 and 2008. The number of countries with strict marketing regulations did not differ across years. This method of monitoring alcohol marketing restrictiveness helps track progress towards implementing WHO'S Global Alcohol Strategy. Findings indicate a consistent lack of restrictive policies over time, making this a priority area for national and global action. © The Author 2014. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Reviewing innovative Earth observation solutions for filling science-policy gaps in hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmann, Anthony; Giuliani, Gregory; Ray, Nicolas; Rahman, Kazi; Abbaspour, Karim C.; Nativi, Stefano; Craglia, Massimo; Cripe, Douglas; Quevauviller, Philippe; Beniston, Martin

2014-10-01

Improved data sharing is needed for hydrological modeling and water management that require better integration of data, information and models. Technological advances in Earth observation and Web technologies have allowed the development of Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDIs) for improved data sharing at various scales. International initiatives catalyze data sharing by promoting interoperability standards to maximize the use of data and by supporting easy access to and utilization of geospatial data. A series of recent European projects are contributing to the promotion of innovative Earth observation solutions and the uptake of scientific outcomes in policy. Several success stories involving different hydrologists' communities can be reported around the World. Gaps still exist in hydrological, agricultural, meteorological and climatological data access because of various issues. While many sources of data exists at all scales it remains difficult and time-consuming to assemble hydrological information for most projects. Furthermore, data and sharing formats remain very heterogeneous. Improvements require implementing/endorsing some commonly agreed standards and documenting data with adequate metadata. The brokering approach allows binding heterogeneous resources published by different data providers and adapting them to tools and interfaces commonly used by consumers of these resources. The challenge is to provide decision-makers with reliable information, based on integrated data and tools derived from both Earth observations and scientific models. Successful SDIs rely therefore on various aspects: a shared vision between all participants, necessity to solve a common problem, adequate data policies, incentives, and sufficient resources. New data streams from remote sensing or crowd sourcing are also producing valuable information to improve our understanding of the water cycle, while field sensors are developing rapidly and becoming less costly. More recent data standards are enhancing interoperability between hydrology and other scientific disciplines, while solutions exist to communicate uncertainty of data and models, which is an essential pre-requisite for decision-making. Distributed computing infrastructures can handle complex and large hydrological data and models, while Web Processing Services bring the flexibility to develop and execute simple to complex workflows over the Internet. The need for capacity building at human, infrastructure and institutional levels is also a major driver for reinforcing the commitment to SDI concepts.

Experiences of nurse practitioners and medical practitioners working in collaborative practice models in primary healthcare in Australia - a multiple case study using mixed methods.

PubMed

Schadewaldt, Verena; McInnes, Elizabeth; Hiller, Janet E; Gardner, Anne

2016-07-29

In 2010 policy changes were introduced to the Australian healthcare system that granted nurse practitioners access to the public health insurance scheme (Medicare) subject to a collaborative arrangement with a medical practitioner. These changes facilitated nurse practitioner practice in primary healthcare settings. This study investigated the experiences and perceptions of nurse practitioners and medical practitioners who worked together under the new policies and aimed to identify enablers of collaborative practice models. A multiple case study of five primary healthcare sites was undertaken, applying mixed methods research. Six nurse practitioners, 13 medical practitioners and three practice managers participated in the study. Data were collected through direct observations, documents and semi-structured interviews as well as questionnaires including validated scales to measure the level of collaboration, satisfaction with collaboration and beliefs in the benefits of collaboration. Thematic analysis was undertaken for qualitative data from interviews, observations and documents, followed by deductive analysis whereby thematic categories were compared to two theoretical models of collaboration. Questionnaire responses were summarised using descriptive statistics. Using the scale measurements, nurse practitioners and medical practitioners reported high levels of collaboration, were highly satisfied with their collaborative relationship and strongly believed that collaboration benefited the patient. The three themes developed from qualitative data showed a more complex and nuanced picture: 1) Structures such as government policy requirements and local infrastructure disadvantaged nurse practitioners financially and professionally in collaborative practice models; 2) Participants experienced the influence and consequences of individual role enactment through the co-existence of overlapping, complementary, traditional and emerging roles, which blurred perceptions of legal liability and reimbursement for shared patient care; 3) Nurse practitioners' and medical practitioners' adjustment to new routines and facilitating the collaborative work relied on the willingness and personal commitment of individuals. Findings of this study suggest that the willingness of practitioners and their individual relationships partially overcame the effect of system restrictions. However, strategic support from healthcare reform decision-makers is needed to strengthen nurse practitioner positions and ensure the sustainability of collaborative practice models in primary healthcare.

National malaria vector control policy: an analysis of the decision to scale-up larviciding in Nigeria.

PubMed

Tesfazghi, Kemi; Hill, Jenny; Jones, Caroline; Ranson, Hilary; Worrall, Eve

2016-02-01

New vector control tools are needed to combat insecticide resistance and reduce malaria transmission. The World Health Organization (WHO) endorses larviciding as a supplementary vector control intervention using larvicides recommended by the WHO Pesticides Evaluation Scheme (WHOPES). The decision to scale-up larviciding in Nigeria provided an opportunity to investigate the factors influencing policy adoption and assess the role that actors and evidence play in the policymaking process, in order to draw lessons that help accelerate the uptake of new methods for vector control. A retrospective policy analysis was carried out using in-depth interviews with national level policy stakeholders to establish normative national vector control policy or strategy decision-making processes and compare these with the process that led to the decision to scale-up larviciding. The interviews were transcribed, then coded and analyzed using NVivo10. Data were coded according to pre-defined themes from an analytical policy framework developed a priori. Stakeholders reported that the larviciding decision-making process deviated from the normative vector control decision-making process. National malaria policy is normally strongly influenced by WHO recommendations, but the potential of larviciding to contribute to national economic development objectives through larvicide production in Nigeria was cited as a key factor shaping the decision. The larviciding decision involved a restricted range of policy actors, and notably excluded actors that usually play advisory, consultative and evidence generation roles. Powerful actors limited the access of some actors to the policy processes and content. This may have limited the influence of scientific evidence in this policy decision. This study demonstrates that national vector control policy change can be facilitated by linking malaria control objectives to wider socioeconomic considerations and through engaging powerful policy champions to drive policy change and thereby accelerate access to new vector control tools. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

The complexity of earth observation valuation: Modeling the patterns and processes of agricultural production and groundwater quality to construct a production possibilities frontier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forney, W.; Raunikar, R. P.; Bernknopf, R.; Mishra, S.

2012-12-01

A production possibilities frontier (PPF) is a graph comparing the production interdependencies for two commodities. In this case, the commodities are defined as the ecosystem services of agricultural production and groundwater quality. This presentation focuses on the refinement of techniques used in an application to estimate the value of remote sensing information. Value of information focuses on the use of uncertain and varying qualities of information within a specific decision-making context for a certain application, which in this case included land use, biogeochemical, hydrogeologic, economic and geospatial data and models. The refined techniques include deriving alternate patterns and processes of ecosystem functions, new estimates of ecosystem service values to construct a PPF, and the extension of this work into decision support systems. We have coupled earth observations of agricultural production with groundwater quality measurements to estimate the value of remote sensing information in northeastern Iowa to be 857M ± 198M (at the 2010 price level) per year. We will present an improved method for modeling crop rotation patterns to include multiple years of rotation, reduction in the assumptions associated with optimal land use allocations, and prioritized improvement of the resolution of input data (for example, soil resources and topography). The prioritization focuses on watersheds that were identified at a coarse-scale of analysis to have higher intensities of agricultural production and lower probabilities of groundwater survivability (in other words, remaining below a regulatory threshold for nitrate pollution) over time, and thus require finer-scaled modeling and analysis. These improved techniques and the simulation of certain scale-dependent policy and management actions, which trade-off the objectives of optimizing crop value versus maintaining potable groundwater, and provide new estimates for the empirical values of the PPF. The calculation of a PPF in this way provides a decision maker with a tool to consider the ramifications of different policies, management practices and regional objectives.

Family planning services for incarcerated women: models for filling an unmet need.

PubMed

Sufrin, Carolyn; Baird, Sara; Clarke, Jennifer; Feldman, Elizabeth

2017-03-13

Purpose Incarcerated women around the globe are predominantly of reproductive age. Most of these women have been pregnant before, and many want to be sexually active and avoid pregnancy upon release. Yet few of these women are on a regular method of contraception. Providing contraceptive services for women in custody benefits individual and public health goals of reducing unintended pregnancy. This policy briefing reviews evidence for an unmet need for family planning in the correctional setting, and policy implications for expanding services. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach The authors describe four model programs in the USA with established contraceptive services on site, highlighting practical steps other facilities can implement. Findings Correctional facilities health administrators, providers, advocates, and legislators should advance policies which should counsel women on family planning and should make a range of contraceptive methods available before release, while remaining sensitive to the potential pressure these women may feel to use birth control in this unique environment. Practical implications Family planning services for incarcerated women benefits individuals, facilities, and the community. Social implications Policies which enable correctional facilities to provide comprehensive family planning to incarcerated women - including reproductive life goals counseling and contraceptive method provision - promote equity in access to critical reproductive health services and also provide broad scale population level benefits in preventing unintended pregnancy or enabling counseling for healthy pregnancies for a group of women who often have limited access to such services. Originality/value This policy briefing highlights an area of health care in prisons and jails which gets little attention in research and in policy circles: family planning services for incarcerated women. In addition to reviewing the importance of such services for this population, the authors also highlight model family planning programs in correctional facilities. These provide actionable insights for other administrators and providers.

A portfolio approach to evaluating natural hazard mitigation policies: An Application to lateral-spread ground failure in Coastal California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernknopf, R.L.; Dinitz, L.B.; Rabinovici, S.J.M.; Evans, A.M.

2001-01-01

In the past, efforts to prevent catastrophic losses from natural hazards have largely been undertaken by individual property owners based on site-specific evaluations of risks to particular buildings. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage mitigation have focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. This paper develops an alternative, intermediate-scale approach to regional risk assessment and the evaluation of community mitigation policies. Properties are grouped into types with similar land uses and levels of hazard, and hypothetical community mitigation strategies for protecting these properties are modeled like investment portfolios. The portfolios consist of investments in mitigation against the risk to a community posed by a specific natural hazard, and are defined by a community's mitigation budget and the proportion of the budget invested in locations of each type. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated through an integrated assessment of earthquake-induced lateral-spread ground failure risk in the Watsonville, California area. Data from the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 are used to model lateral-spread ground failure susceptibility. Earth science and economic data are combined and analyzed in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The portfolio model is then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in different locations. Two mitigation policies, one that prioritizes mitigation by land use type and the other by hazard zone, are compared with a status quo policy of doing no further mitigation beyond that which already exists. The portfolio representing the hazard zone rule yields a higher expected return than the land use portfolio does: However, the hazard zone portfolio experiences a higher standard deviation. Therefore, neither portfolio is clearly preferred. The two mitigation policies both reduce expected losses and increase overall expected community wealth compared to the status quo policy.

Combined heat and power systems: economic and policy barriers to growth.

PubMed

Kalam, Adil; King, Abigail; Moret, Ellen; Weerasinghe, Upekha

2012-04-23

Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems can provide a range of benefits to users with regards to efficiency, reliability, costs and environmental impact. Furthermore, increasing the amount of electricity generated by CHP systems in the United States has been identified as having significant potential for impressive economic and environmental outcomes on a national scale. Given the benefits from increasing the adoption of CHP technologies, there is value in improving our understanding of how desired increases in CHP adoption can be best achieved. These obstacles are currently understood to stem from regulatory as well as economic and technological barriers. In our research, we answer the following questions: Given the current policy and economic environment facing the CHP industry, what changes need to take place in this space in order for CHP systems to be competitive in the energy market? We focus our analysis primarily on Combined Heat and Power Systems that use natural gas turbines. Our analysis takes a two-pronged approach. We first conduct a statistical analysis of the impact of state policies on increases in electricity generated from CHP system. Second, we conduct a Cost-Benefit analysis to determine in which circumstances funding incentives are necessary to make CHP technologies cost-competitive. Our policy analysis shows that regulatory improvements do not explain the growth in adoption of CHP technologies but hold the potential to encourage increases in electricity generated from CHP system in small-scale applications. Our Cost-Benefit analysis shows that CHP systems are only cost competitive in large-scale applications and that funding incentives would be necessary to make CHP technology cost-competitive in small-scale applications. From the synthesis of these analyses we conclude that because large-scale applications of natural gas turbines are already cost-competitive, policy initiatives aimed at a CHP market dominated primarily by large-scale (and therefore already cost-competitive) systems have not been effectively directed. Our recommendation is that for CHP technologies using natural gas turbines, policy focuses should be on increasing CHP growth in small-scale systems. This result can be best achieved through redirection of state and federal incentives, research and development, adoption of smart grid technology, and outreach and education.

Opportunities and constraints for improved water resources management using different lenses and scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langan, Simon

2017-04-01

The quest for water security has been a struggle throughout human history. Only in recent years has the scale of this quest moved beyond the local, to the national and regional scales and to the planet itself. Absent or unreliable water supply, sanitation and irrigation services, unmitigated floods and droughts, and degraded water environments severely impact half of the planet's population. Over the past few years, water insecurity has become recognized in the World Economic Forum global risk studies as one of the greatest threats that business leaders themselves see that they face in the future, both in terms of likelihood and scale. The scale and complexity of the water challenges faced by society, particularly but not only in the world's poorest regions, are now recognized, as is the imperative of overcoming these challenges for a stable and equitable world. How can we ensure the well-being of all people and ecosystems with the water, human, technological, and financial resources available? In the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals water has to be managed more effectively and wisely by unlocking scientific, managerial, and business capabilities; breaking out of technological lock-in; and innovative and adaptive portfolios of solutions have to be developed while removing barriers to progress on sound water governance. IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFAS) is an unprecedented inter-disciplinary scientific initiative to identify robust and adaptive portfolios of optional solutions across different economic sectors, including agriculture, energy and industry, and to test these solution-portfolios with multi-model ensembles of hydrologic and sector models to obtain a clearer picture of the trade-offs, risks, and opportunities. The results of WFaS scenarios and models will provide a basis for long-term strategic planning of water resource development. And given the complexity of the water system, WFaS will uniquely provide policy makers with optional sets of solutions that work together and that can be easily adapted as circumstances change in the future. Water is also all about relationships. As WFaS progresses, it will establish a network involving information exchange, mutual learning and horizontal cooperation across teams of researchers, public and private decision makers and practitioners exploring solutions at regional, national and local scales. The initiative includes a major stakeholder consultation component, to inform and guide the science and to test and refine policy and business outcome.

Predicting nutrient responses to mitigation at catchment to national scale: the UK research platform (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnes, P.

2013-12-01

Nutrient enrichment of waters from land-based and atmospheric sources presents a significant management challenge, requiring effective stakeholder engagement and policy development, properly underpinned by robust scientific evidence. The challenge is complex, raising significant questions about the specific sources, apportionment and pathways that determine nutrient enrichment and the key priorities for effective management and policy intervention. This paper presents outputs from 4 major UK research programmes: the Defra Demonstration Test Catchments programme (DTC), the Environment Agency's Catchment Sensitive Farming monitoring and evaluation programme (CSF), Natural Resources Wales Welsh Catchment Initiative (WCI) and the NERC Environmental Virtual Observatory programme (EVOp). Funded to meet this challenge, they are delivering new understanding of the rates and sources of pollutant fluxes from land to water, their impacts on ecosystem goods and services, and likely trends under future climate and land use change from field to national scale. DTC, a 12m investment by the UK Government, has set up long-term, high resolution research platforms equipped with novel telemetered sensor networks to monitor stream ecosystem responses to on-farm mitigation measures at a representative scale for catchment management. Ecosystem structural and functional responses and bulk hydrochemistry are also being monitored using standard protocols. CSF has set up long-term, enhanced monitoring in 8 priority catchments, with monthly monitoring in a further 72 English catchments and 6 Welsh priority catchments, to identify shifts in pollutant flux to waters resulting from mitigation measures in priority areas and farming sectors. CSF and WCI have contributed to >50 million of targeted farm improvements to date, representing a significant shift in farming practice. Each programme has generated detailed evidence on stream ecosystem responses to targeted mitigation. However, to provide effective underpinning for policy the major challenge has been to upscale this knowledge beyond these data-rich systems and identify the dominant contributing areas and priorities for management intervention to control nutrient flux and ecological impacts in data-poor systems which are located downstream from existing monitoring infrastructure or are in unmonitored catchments in remote locations. EVOp has directly addressed this challenge, developing a cloud computing enabled National Biogeochemical Modelling Framework to support ensemble modelling, knowledge capture and transfer from DTC, CSF, WCI and data-rich research catchments. This platform provides opportunities for further development of national biogeochemical modelling capability, allowing upscaled predictions from plot to catchment and national scale, enabling knowledge transfer from data-rich to data-poor areas. This paper presents initial findings from these research platforms, identifying the key priorities for action emerging from our national scale scenario analysis, and future research directions to further improve understanding, prediction and management capability in nutrient enriched waters and their catchments under changing climate and land use.

Vulnerability of recently recharged groundwater in principal aquifers of the United States to nitrate contamination

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurdak, Jason J.; Qi, Sharon L.

2012-01-01

Recently recharged water (defined here as <60 years old) is generally the most vulnerable part of a groundwater resource to nonpoint-source nitrate contamination. Understanding at the appropriate scale the interactions of natural and anthropogenic controlling factors that influence nitrate occurrence in recently recharged groundwater is critical to support best management and policy decisions that are often made at the aquifer to subaquifer scale. New logistic regression models were developed using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program and National Water Information System for 17 principal aquifers of the U.S. to identify important source, transport, and attenuation factors that control nonpoint source nitrate concentrations greater than relative background levels in recently recharged groundwater and were used to predict the probability of detecting elevated nitrate in areas beyond the sampling network. Results indicate that dissolved oxygen, crops and irrigated cropland, fertilizer application, seasonally high water table, and soil properties that affect infiltration and denitrification are among the most important factors in predicting elevated nitrate concentrations. Important differences in controlling factors and spatial predictions were identified in the principal aquifer and national-scale models and support the conclusion that similar spatial scales are needed between informed groundwater management and model development.

Influencing Public School Policy in the United States: The Role of Large-Scale Assessments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmidt, William H.; Burroughs, Nathan A.

2016-01-01

The authors review the influence of state, national and international large-scale assessments (LSAs) on education policy and research. They distinguish between two main uses of LSAs: as a means for conducting research that informs educational reform and LSAs as a tool for implementing standards and enforcing accountability. The authors discuss the…

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Town Hall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Kyle, Page; Basso, Bruno; Winter, Jonathan; Asseng, Senthold

2015-01-01

AgMIP (www.agmip.org) is an international community of climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts working to further the development and application of multi-model, multi-scale, multi-disciplinary agricultural models that can inform policy and decision makers around the world. This meeting will engage the AGU community by providing a brief overview of AgMIP, in particular its new plans for a Coordinated Global and Regional Assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security for AR6. This Town Hall will help identify opportunities for participants to become involved in AgMIP and its 30+ activities.

Managing artisanal and small-scale mining in forest areas: perspectives from a poststructural political ecology.

PubMed

Hirons, Mark

2011-01-01

Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) is an activity intimately associated with social deprivation and environmental degradation, including deforestation. This paper examines ASM and deforestation using a broadly poststructural political ecology framework. Hegemonic discourses are shown to consistently influence policy direction, particularly in emerging approaches such as Corporate Social Responsibility and the Forest Stewardship Council. A review of alternative discourses reveals that the poststructural method is useful for critiquing the international policy arena but does not inform new approaches. Synthesis of the analysis leads to conclusions that echo a growing body of literature advocating for policies to become increasingly sensitive to local contexts, synergistic between actors at difference scales, and to be integrated across sectors.

The development and validation of the core competencies scale (CCS) for the college and university students.

PubMed

Ruan, Bin; Mok, Magdalena Mo Ching; Edginton, Christopher R; Chin, Ming Kai

2012-01-01

This article describes the development and validation of the Core Competencies Scale (CCS) using Bok's (2006) competency framework for undergraduate education. The framework included: communication, critical thinking, character development, citizenship, diversity, global understanding, widening of interest, and career and vocational development. The sample comprised 70 college and university students. Results of analysis using Rasch rating scale modelling showed that there was strong empirical evidence on the validity of the measures in contents, structure, interpretation, generalizability, and response options of the CCS scale. The implication of having developed Rasch-based valid and dependable measures in this study for gauging the value added of college and university education to their students is that the feedback generated from CCS will enable evidence-based decision and policy making to be implemented and strategized. Further, program effectiveness can be measured and thus accountability on the achievement of the program objectives.

Characterizing and modeling the dynamics of online popularity.

PubMed

Ratkiewicz, Jacob; Fortunato, Santo; Flammini, Alessandro; Menczer, Filippo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2010-10-08

Online popularity has an enormous impact on opinions, culture, policy, and profits. We provide a quantitative, large scale, temporal analysis of the dynamics of online content popularity in two massive model systems: the Wikipedia and an entire country's Web space. We find that the dynamics of popularity are characterized by bursts, displaying characteristic features of critical systems such as fat-tailed distributions of magnitude and interevent time. We propose a minimal model combining the classic preferential popularity increase mechanism with the occurrence of random popularity shifts due to exogenous factors. The model recovers the critical features observed in the empirical analysis of the systems analyzed here, highlighting the key factors needed in the description of popularity dynamics.

Spatial analysis of instream nitrogen loads and factors controlling nitrogen delivery to streams in the southeastern United States using spatially referenced regression on watershed attributes (SPARROW) and regional classification frameworks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoos, A.B.; McMahon, G.

2009-01-01

Understanding how nitrogen transport across the landscape varies with landscape characteristics is important for developing sound nitrogen management policies. We used a spatially referenced regression analysis (SPARROW) to examine landscape characteristics influencing delivery of nitrogen from sources in a watershed to stream channels. Modelled landscape delivery ratio varies widely (by a factor of 4) among watersheds in the southeastern United States - higher in the western part (Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi) than in the eastern part, and the average value for the region is lower compared to other parts of the nation. When we model landscape delivery ratio as a continuous function of local-scale landscape characteristics, we estimate a spatial pattern that varies as a function of soil and climate characteristics but exhibits spatial structure in residuals (observed load minus predicted load). The spatial pattern of modelled landscape delivery ratio and the spatial pattern of residuals coincide spatially with Level III ecoregions and also with hydrologic landscape regions. Subsequent incorporation into the model of these frameworks as regional scale variables improves estimation of landscape delivery ratio, evidenced by reduced spatial bias in residuals, and suggests that cross-scale processes affect nitrogen attenuation on the landscape. The model-fitted coefficient values are logically consistent with the hypothesis that broad-scale classifications of hydrologic response help to explain differential rates of nitrogen attenuation, controlling for local-scale landscape characteristics. Negative model coefficients for hydrologic landscape regions where the primary flow path is shallow ground water suggest that a lower fraction of nitrogen mass will be delivered to streams; this relation is reversed for regions where the primary flow path is overland flow.

Spatial analysis of instream nitrogen loads and factors controlling nitrogen delivery to streams in the southeastern United States using spatially referenced regression on watershed attributes (SPARROW) and regional classification frameworks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoos, Anne B.; McMahon, Gerard

2009-01-01

Understanding how nitrogen transport across the landscape varies with landscape characteristics is important for developing sound nitrogen management policies. We used a spatially referenced regression analysis (SPARROW) to examine landscape characteristics influencing delivery of nitrogen from sources in a watershed to stream channels. Modelled landscape delivery ratio varies widely (by a factor of 4) among watersheds in the southeastern United States—higher in the western part (Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi) than in the eastern part, and the average value for the region is lower compared to other parts of the nation. When we model landscape delivery ratio as a continuous function of local-scale landscape characteristics, we estimate a spatial pattern that varies as a function of soil and climate characteristics but exhibits spatial structure in residuals (observed load minus predicted load). The spatial pattern of modelled landscape delivery ratio and the spatial pattern of residuals coincide spatially with Level III ecoregions and also with hydrologic landscape regions. Subsequent incorporation into the model of these frameworks as regional scale variables improves estimation of landscape delivery ratio, evidenced by reduced spatial bias in residuals, and suggests that cross-scale processes affect nitrogen attenuation on the landscape. The model-fitted coefficient values are logically consistent with the hypothesis that broad-scale classifications of hydrologic response help to explain differential rates of nitrogen attenuation, controlling for local-scale landscape characteristics. Negative model coefficients for hydrologic landscape regions where the primary flow path is shallow ground water suggest that a lower fraction of nitrogen mass will be delivered to streams; this relation is reversed for regions where the primary flow path is overland flow.

"Total Deposition (TDEP) Maps" | Science Inventory | US EPA

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The presentation provides an update on the use of a hybrid methodology that relies on measured values from national monitoring networks and modeled values from CMAQ to produce of maps of total deposition for use in critical loads and other ecological assessments. Additionally, comparisons of the deposition values from the hybrid approach are compared with deposition estimates from other methodologies. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being used by EPA, NOAA, and the air pollution community in understanding and forecasting not only the magnitude of the air pollution problem, but also in developing emission control policies and regulations for air quality improvements.

Establishing an integrated human milk banking approach to strengthen newborn care.

PubMed

DeMarchis, A; Israel-Ballard, K; Mansen, Kimberly Amundson; Engmann, C

2017-05-01

The provision of donor human milk can significantly reduce morbidity and mortality among vulnerable infants and is recommended by the World Health Organization as the next best option when a mother's own milk is unavailable. Regulated human milk banks can meet this need, however, scale-up has been hindered by the absence of an appropriate model for resource-limited settings and a lack of policy support for human milk banks and for the operational procedures supporting them. To reduce infant mortality, human milk banking systems need to be scaled up and integrated with other components of newborn care. This article draws on current guidelines and best practices from human milk banks to offer a compilation of universal requirements that provide a foundation for an integrated model of newborn care that is appropriate for low- and high-resource settings alike.

Assessing the multi-scale predictive ability of ecosystem functional attributes for species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Arenas-Castro, Salvador; Gonçalves, João; Alves, Paulo; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Honrado, João P

2018-01-01

Global environmental changes are rapidly affecting species' distributions and habitat suitability worldwide, requiring a continuous update of biodiversity status to support effective decisions on conservation policy and management. In this regard, satellite-derived Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) offer a more integrative and quicker evaluation of ecosystem responses to environmental drivers and changes than climate and structural or compositional landscape attributes. Thus, EFAs may hold advantages as predictors in Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and for implementing multi-scale species monitoring programs. Here we describe a modelling framework to assess the predictive ability of EFAs as Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) against traditional datasets (climate, land-cover) at several scales. We test the framework with a multi-scale assessment of habitat suitability for two plant species of conservation concern, both protected under the EU Habitats Directive, differing in terms of life history, range and distribution pattern (Iris boissieri and Taxus baccata). We fitted four sets of SDMs for the two test species, calibrated with: interpolated climate variables; landscape variables; EFAs; and a combination of climate and landscape variables. EFA-based models performed very well at the several scales (AUCmedian from 0.881±0.072 to 0.983±0.125), and similarly to traditional climate-based models, individually or in combination with land-cover predictors (AUCmedian from 0.882±0.059 to 0.995±0.083). Moreover, EFA-based models identified additional suitable areas and provided valuable information on functional features of habitat suitability for both test species (narrowly vs. widely distributed), for both coarse and fine scales. Our results suggest a relatively small scale-dependence of the predictive ability of satellite-derived EFAs, supporting their use as meaningful EBVs in SDMs from regional and broader scales to more local and finer scales. Since the evaluation of species' conservation status and habitat quality should as far as possible be performed based on scalable indicators linking to meaningful processes, our framework may guide conservation managers in decision-making related to biodiversity monitoring and reporting schemes.

Modeling the Impact of Alternative Immunization Strategies: Using Matrices as Memory Lanes

PubMed Central

Alonso, Wladimir J.; Rabaa, Maia A.; Giglio, Ricardo; Miller, Mark A.; Schuck-Paim, Cynthia

2015-01-01

Existing modeling approaches are divided between a focus on the constitutive (micro) elements of systems or on higher (macro) organization levels. Micro-level models enable consideration of individual histories and interactions, but can be unstable and subject to cumulative errors. Macro-level models focus on average population properties, but may hide relevant heterogeneity at the micro-scale. We present a framework that integrates both approaches through the use of temporally structured matrices that can take large numbers of variables into account. Matrices are composed of several bidimensional (time×age) grids, each representing a state (e.g. physiological, immunological, socio-demographic). Time and age are primary indices linking grids. These matrices preserve the entire history of all population strata and enable the use of historical events, parameters and states dynamically in the modeling process. This framework is applicable across fields, but particularly suitable to simulate the impact of alternative immunization policies. We demonstrate the framework by examining alternative strategies to accelerate measles elimination in 15 developing countries. The model recaptured long-endorsed policies in measles control, showing that where a single routine measles-containing vaccine is employed with low coverage, any improvement in coverage is more effective than a second dose. It also identified an opportunity to save thousands of lives in India at attractively low costs through the implementation of supplementary immunization campaigns. The flexibility of the approach presented enables estimating the effectiveness of different immunization policies in highly complex contexts involving multiple and historical influences from different hierarchical levels. PMID:26509976

Implications of non-sustainable agricultural water policies for the water-food nexus in large-scale irrigation systems: A remote sensing approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Zayed, Islam Sabry; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed

2017-12-01

This study proposes a novel monitoring tool based on Satellite Remote Sensing (SRS) data to examine the status of water distribution and Water Use Efficiency (WUE) under changing water policies in large-scale and complex irrigation schemes. The aim is to improve our understanding of the water-food nexus in such schemes. With a special reference to the Gezira Irrigation Scheme (GeIS) in Sudan during the period 2000-2014, the tool devised herein is well suited for cases where validation data are absent. First, it introduces an index, referred to as the Crop Water Consumption Index (CWCI), to assess the efficiency of water policies. The index is defined as the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) over agricultural areas to total ETa for the whole scheme where ETa is estimated using the Simplified Surface Energy Balance model (SSEB). Second, the tool uses integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (iNDVI), as a proxy for crop productivity, and ETa to assess the WUE. Third, the tool uses SSEB ETa and NDVI in an attempt to detect wastage of water. Four key results emerged from this research as follows: 1) the WUE has not improved despite the changing agricultural and water policies, 2) the seasonal ETa can be used to detect the drier areas of GeIS, i.e. areas with poor irrigation water supply, 3) the decreasing trends of CWCI, slope of iNDVI-ETa linear regression and iNDVI are indicative of inefficient utilization of irrigation water in the scheme, and 4) it is possible to use SSEB ETa and NDVI to identify channels with spillover problems and detect wastage of rainwater that is not used as a source for irrigation. In conclusion, the innovative tool developed herein has provided important information on the efficiency of a large-scale irrigation scheme to help rationalize laborious water management processes and increase productivity.

Multiple models guide strategies for agricultural nutrient reductions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scavia, Donald; Kalcic, Margaret; Muenich, Rebecca Logsdon; Read, Jennifer; Aloysius, Noel; Bertani, Isabella; Boles, Chelsie; Confesor, Remegio; DePinto, Joseph; Gildow, Marie; Martin, Jay; Redder, Todd; Robertson, Dale M.; Sowa, Scott P.; Wang, Yu-Chen; Yen, Haw

2017-01-01

In response to degraded water quality, federal policy makers in the US and Canada called for a 40% reduction in phosphorus (P) loads to Lake Erie, and state and provincial policy makers in the Great Lakes region set a load-reduction target for the year 2025. Here, we configured five separate SWAT (US Department of Agriculture's Soil and Water Assessment Tool) models to assess load reduction strategies for the agriculturally dominated Maumee River watershed, the largest P source contributing to toxic algal blooms in Lake Erie. Although several potential pathways may achieve the target loads, our results show that any successful pathway will require large-scale implementation of multiple practices. For example, one successful pathway involved targeting 50% of row cropland that has the highest P loss in the watershed with a combination of three practices: subsurface application of P fertilizers, planting cereal rye as a winter cover crop, and installing buffer strips. Achieving these levels of implementation will require local, state/provincial, and federal agencies to collaborate with the private sector to set shared implementation goals and to demand innovation and honest assessments of water quality-related programs, policies, and partnerships.

Assessment and Accommodations for English Language Learners: Issues and Recommendations. CRESST Policy Brief 4, Summer 2001.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abedi, Jamal

This policy brief addresses the inclusion of English language learners (ELLs) in large-scale assessments and ELL assessment accommodations. The inclusion of ELL students creates specific accountability policy challenges. States differ in the students they include and their inclusion policies and accommodation practices, and, at present, inclusion…

Control of Groundwater Pollution from Animal Feeding Operations: A Farm-Level Dynamic Model for Policy Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Baerenklau, K.

2012-12-01

Consolidation in livestock production generates higher farm incomes due to economies of scale, but it also brings waste disposal problems. Over-application of animal waste on adjacent land produces adverse environmental and health effects, including groundwater nitrate pollution. The situation is particularly noticeable in California. In respond to this increasingly severe problem, EPA published a type of command-and-control regulation for concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) in 2003. The key component of the regulation is its nutrient management plans (NMPs), which intend to limit the land application rates of animal waste. Although previous studies provide a full perspective on potential economic impacts for CAFOs to meet nutrient standards, their models are static and fail to reflect changes in management practices other than spreading manure on additional land and changing cropping patterns. We develop a dynamic environmental-economic modeling framework for representative CAFOs. The framework incorporates four models (i.e., animal model, crop model, hydrologic model, and economic model) that include various components such as herd management, manure handling system, crop rotation, water sources, irrigation system, waste disposal options, and pollutant emissions. We also include the dynamics of soil characteristics in the rootzone as well as the spatial heterogeneity of the irrigation system. The operator maximizes discounted total farm profit over multiple periods subject to environmental regulations. Decision rules from the dynamic optimization problem demonstrate best management practices for CAFOs to improve their economic and environmental performance. Results from policy simulations suggest that direct quantity restrictions of emission or incentive-based emission policies are much more cost-effective than the standard approach of limiting the amount of animal waste that may be applied to fields (as shown in the figure below); reason being, policies targeting intermediate pollution and final pollution create incentives for the operator to examine the effects of other management practices to reduce pollution in addition to controlling the polluting inputs. Incentive-based mechanisms are slightly more cost-effective than quantity controls when seasonal emissions fluctuate. Our approach demonstrates the importance of taking into account the spatial & temporal dynamics in the rootzone and the integrated effects of water, nitrogen, and salinity on crop yield and nitrate emissions. It also highlights the significant role the environment can play in pollution control and the potential benefits from designing policies that acknowledge this role.oss of Total Net Farm Income Under Alternative Policies

Analysis of Surface Heterogeneity Effects with Mesoscale Terrestrial Modeling Platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmer, C.

2015-12-01

An improved understanding of the full variability in the weather and climate system is crucial for reducing the uncertainty in weather forecasting and climate prediction, and to aid policy makers to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. A yet unknown part of uncertainty in the predictions from the numerical models is caused by the negligence of non-resolved land surface heterogeneity and the sub-surface dynamics and their potential impact on the state of the atmosphere. At the same time, mesoscale numerical models using finer horizontal grid resolution [O(1)km] can suffer from inconsistencies and neglected scale-dependencies in ABL parameterizations and non-resolved effects of integrated surface-subsurface lateral flow at this scale. Our present knowledge suggests large-eddy-simulation (LES) as an eventual solution to overcome the inadequacy of the physical parameterizations in the atmosphere in this transition scale, yet we are constrained by the computational resources, memory management, big-data, when using LES for regional domains. For the present, there is a need for scale-aware parameterizations not only in the atmosphere but also in the land surface and subsurface model components. In this study, we use the recently developed Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TerrSysMP) as a numerical tool to analyze the uncertainty in the simulation of surface exchange fluxes and boundary layer circulations at grid resolutions of the order of 1km, and explore the sensitivity of the atmospheric boundary layer evolution and convective rainfall processes on land surface heterogeneity.

DE-FG02-04ER25606 Identity Federation and Policy Management Guide: Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Humphrey, Marty, A

The goal of this 3-year project was to facilitate a more productive dynamic matching between resource providers and resource consumers in Grid environments by explicitly specifying policies. There were broadly two problems being addressed by this project. First, there was a lack of an Open Grid Services Architecture (OGSA)-compliant mechanism for expressing, storing and retrieving user policies and Virtual Organization (VO) policies. Second, there was a lack of tools to resolve and enforce policies in the Open Services Grid Architecture. To address these problems, our overall approach in this project was to make all policies explicit (e.g., virtual organization policies,more » resource provider policies, resource consumer policies), thereby facilitating policy matching and policy negotiation. Policies defined on a per-user basis were created, held, and updated in MyPolMan, thereby providing a Grid user to centralize (where appropriate) and manage his/her policies. Organizationally, the corresponding service was VOPolMan, in which the policies of the Virtual Organization are expressed, managed, and dynamically consulted. Overall, we successfully defined, prototyped, and evaluated policy-based resource management and access control for OGSA-based Grids. This DOE project partially supported 17 peer-reviewed publications on a number of different topics: General security for Grids, credential management, Web services/OGSA/OGSI, policy-based grid authorization (for remote execution and for access to information), policy-directed Grid data movement/placement, policies for large-scale virtual organizations, and large-scale policy-aware grid architectures. In addition to supporting the PI, this project partially supported the training of 5 PhD students.« less

Designing evaluation studies to optimally inform policy: what factors do policy-makers in China consider when making resource allocation decisions on healthcare worker training programmes?

PubMed

Wu, Shishi; Legido-Quigley, Helena; Spencer, Julia; Coker, Richard James; Khan, Mishal Sameer

2018-02-23

In light of the gap in evidence to inform future resource allocation decisions about healthcare provider (HCP) training in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and the considerable donor investments being made towards training interventions, evaluation studies that are optimally designed to inform local policy-makers are needed. The aim of our study is to understand what features of HCP training evaluation studies are important for decision-making by policy-makers in LMICs. We investigate the extent to which evaluations based on the widely used Kirkpatrick model - focusing on direct outcomes of training, namely reaction of trainees, learning, behaviour change and improvements in programmatic health indicators - align with policy-makers' evidence needs for resource allocation decisions. We use China as a case study where resource allocation decisions about potential scale-up (using domestic funding) are being made about an externally funded pilot HCP training programme. Qualitative data were collected from high-level officials involved in resource allocation at the national and provincial level in China through ten face-to-face, in-depth interviews and two focus group discussions consisting of ten participants each. Data were analysed manually using an interpretive thematic analysis approach. Our study indicates that Chinese officials not only consider information about the direct outcomes of a training programme, as captured in the Kirkpatrick model, but also need information on the resources required to implement the training, the wider or indirect impacts of training, and the sustainability and scalability to other settings within the country. In addition to considering findings presented in evaluation studies, we found that Chinese policy-makers pay close attention to whether the evaluations were robust and to the composition of the evaluation team. Our qualitative study indicates that training programme evaluations that focus narrowly on direct training outcomes may not provide sufficient information for policy-makers to make decisions on future training programmes. Based on our findings, we have developed an evidence-based framework, which incorporates but expands beyond the Kirkpatrick model, to provide conceptual and practical guidance that aids in the design of training programme evaluations better suited to meet the information needs of policy-makers and to inform policy decisions.

An integrated modeling approach for estimating the water quality benefits of conservation practices at the river basin scale.

PubMed

Santhi, C; Kannan, N; White, M; Di Luzio, M; Arnold, J G; Wang, X; Williams, J R

2014-01-01

The USDA initiated the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practices at regional and national scales. For this assessment, a sampling and modeling approach is used. This paper provides a technical overview of the modeling approach used in CEAP cropland assessment to estimate the off-site water quality benefits of conservation practices using the Ohio River Basin (ORB) as an example. The modeling approach uses a farm-scale model, Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX), and a watershed scale model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool [SWAT]) and databases in the Hydrologic Unit Modeling for the United States system. Databases of land use, soils, land use management, topography, weather, point sources, and atmospheric depositions were developed to derive model inputs. APEX simulates the cultivated cropland, Conserve Reserve Program land, and the practices implemented on them, whereas SWAT simulates the noncultivated land (e.g., pasture, range, urban, and forest) and point sources. Simulation results from APEX are input into SWAT. SWAT routes all sources, including APEX's, to the basin outlet through each eight-digit watershed. Each basin is calibrated for stream flow, sediment, and nutrient loads at multiple gaging sites and turned in for simulating the effects of conservation practice scenarios on water quality. Results indicate that sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads delivered to the Mississippi River from ORB could be reduced by 16, 15, and 23%, respectively, due to current conservation practices. Modeling tools are useful to provide science-based information for assessing existing conservation programs, developing future programs, and developing insights on load reductions necessary for hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Implementation of legal abortion in Nepal: a model for rapid scale-up of high-quality care

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Unsafe abortion's significant contribution to maternal mortality and morbidity was a critical factor leading to liberalization of Nepal's restrictive abortion law in 2002. Careful, comprehensive planning among a range of multisectoral stakeholders, led by Nepal's Ministry of Health and Population, enabled the country subsequently to introduce and scale up safe abortion services in a remarkably short timeframe. This paper examines factors that contributed to rapid, successful implementation of legal abortion in this mountainous republic, including deliberate attention to the key areas of policy, health system capacity, equipment and supplies, and information dissemination. Important elements of this successful model of scaling up safe legal abortion include: the pre-existence of postabortion care services, through which health-care providers were already familiar with the main clinical technique for safe abortion; government leadership in coordinating complementary contributions from a wide range of public- and private-sector actors; reliance on public-health evidence in formulating policies governing abortion provision, which led to the embrace of medical abortion and authorization of midlevel providers as key strategies for decentralizing care; and integration of abortion care into existing Safe Motherhood and the broader health system. While challenges remain in ensuring that all Nepali women can readily exercise their legal right to early pregnancy termination, the national safe abortion program has already yielded strong positive results. Nepal's experience making high-quality abortion care widely accessible in a short period of time offers important lessons for other countries seeking to reduce maternal mortality and morbidity from unsafe abortion and to achieve Millennium Development Goals. PMID:22475782

Multi-time scale Climate Informed Stochastic Hybrid Simulation-Optimization Model (McISH model) for Multi-Purpose Reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, M.; Lall, U.

2013-12-01

In order to mitigate the impacts of climate change, proactive management strategies to operate reservoirs and dams are needed. A multi-time scale climate informed stochastic model is developed to optimize the operations for a multi-purpose single reservoir by simulating decadal, interannual, seasonal and sub-seasonal variability. We apply the model to a setting motivated by the largest multi-purpose dam in N. India, the Bhakhra reservoir on the Sutlej River, a tributary of the Indus. This leads to a focus on timing and amplitude of the flows for the monsoon and snowmelt periods. The flow simulations are constrained by multiple sources of historical data and GCM future projections, that are being developed through a NSF funded project titled 'Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoon Asia'. The model presented is a multilevel, nonlinear programming model that aims to optimize the reservoir operating policy on a decadal horizon and the operation strategy on an updated annual basis. The model is hierarchical, in terms of having a structure that two optimization models designated for different time scales are nested as a matryoshka doll. The two optimization models have similar mathematical formulations with some modifications to meet the constraints within that time frame. The first level of the model is designated to provide optimization solution for policy makers to determine contracted annual releases to different uses with a prescribed reliability; the second level is a within-the-period (e.g., year) operation optimization scheme that allocates the contracted annual releases on a subperiod (e.g. monthly) basis, with additional benefit for extra release and penalty for failure. The model maximizes the net benefit of irrigation, hydropower generation and flood control in each of the periods. The model design thus facilitates the consistent application of weather and climate forecasts to improve operations of reservoir systems. The decadal flow simulations are re-initialized every year with updated climate projections to improve the reliability of the operation rules for the next year, within which the seasonal operation strategies are nested. The multi-level structure can be repeated for monthly operation with weekly subperiods to take advantage of evolving weather forecasts and seasonal climate forecasts. As a result of the hierarchical structure, sub-seasonal even weather time scale updates and adjustment can be achieved. Given an ensemble of these scenarios, the McISH reservoir simulation-optimization model is able to derive the desired reservoir storage levels, including minimum and maximum, as a function of calendar date, and the associated release patterns. The multi-time scale approach allows adaptive management of water supplies acknowledging the changing risks, meeting both the objectives over the decade in expected value and controlling the near term and planning period risk through probabilistic reliability constraints. For the applications presented, the target season is the monsoon season from June to September. The model also includes a monthly flood volume forecast model, based on a Copula density fit to the monthly flow and the flood volume flow. This is used to guide dynamic allocation of the flood control volume given the forecasts.

Integrating water and agricultural management: collaborative governance for a complex policy problem.

PubMed

Fish, Rob D; Ioris, Antonio A R; Watson, Nigel M

2010-11-01

This paper examines governance requirements for integrating water and agricultural management (IWAM). The institutional arrangements for the agriculture and water sectors are complex and multi-dimensional, and integration cannot therefore be achieved through a simplistic 'additive' policy process. Effective integration requires the development of a new collaborative approach to governance that is designed to cope with scale dependencies and interactions, uncertainty and contested knowledge, and interdependency among diverse and unequal interests. When combined with interdisciplinary research, collaborative governance provides a viable normative model because of its emphasis on reciprocity, relationships, learning and creativity. Ultimately, such an approach could lead to the sorts of system adaptations and transformations that are required for IWAM. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

nonlinMIP contribution to CMIP6: model intercomparison project for non-linear mechanisms: physical basis, experimental design and analysis principles (v1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Peter; Andrews, Timothy; Chadwick, Robin; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Lowe, Jason A.; Schaller, Nathalie; Shiogama, Hideo

2016-11-01

nonlinMIP provides experiments that account for state-dependent regional and global climate responses. The experiments have two main applications: (1) to focus understanding of responses to CO2 forcing on states relevant to specific policy or scientific questions (e.g. change under low-forcing scenarios, the benefits of mitigation, or from past cold climates to the present day), or (2) to understand the state dependence (non-linearity) of climate change - i.e. why doubling the forcing may not double the response. State dependence (non-linearity) of responses can be large at regional scales, with important implications for understanding mechanisms and for general circulation model (GCM) emulation techniques (e.g. energy balance models and pattern-scaling methods). However, these processes are hard to explore using traditional experiments, which explains why they have had so little attention in previous studies. Some single model studies have established novel analysis principles and some physical mechanisms. There is now a need to explore robustness and uncertainty in such mechanisms across a range of models (point 2 above), and, more broadly, to focus work on understanding the response to CO2 on climate states relevant to specific policy/science questions (point 1). nonlinMIP addresses this using a simple, small set of CO2-forced experiments that are able to separate linear and non-linear mechanisms cleanly, with a good signal-to-noise ratio - while being demonstrably traceable to realistic transient scenarios. The design builds on the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) protocols, and is centred around a suite of instantaneous atmospheric CO2 change experiments, with a ramp-up-ramp-down experiment to test traceability to gradual forcing scenarios. In all cases the models are intended to be used with CO2 concentrations rather than CO2 emissions as the input. The understanding gained will help interpret the spread in policy-relevant scenario projections. Here we outline the basic physical principles behind nonlinMIP, and the method of establishing traceability from abruptCO2 to gradual forcing experiments, before detailing the experimental design, and finally some analysis principles. The test of traceability from abruptCO2 to transient experiments is recommended as a standard analysis within the CMIP5 and CMIP6 DECK protocols.

Three essays on multi-level optimization models and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahdar, Mohammad

The general form of a multi-level mathematical programming problem is a set of nested optimization problems, in which each level controls a series of decision variables independently. However, the value of decision variables may also impact the objective function of other levels. A two-level model is called a bilevel model and can be considered as a Stackelberg game with a leader and a follower. The leader anticipates the response of the follower and optimizes its objective function, and then the follower reacts to the leader's action. The multi-level decision-making model has many real-world applications such as government decisions, energy policies, market economy, network design, etc. However, there is a lack of capable algorithms to solve medium and large scale these types of problems. The dissertation is devoted to both theoretical research and applications of multi-level mathematical programming models, which consists of three parts, each in a paper format. The first part studies the renewable energy portfolio under two major renewable energy policies. The potential competition for biomass for the growth of the renewable energy portfolio in the United States and other interactions between two policies over the next twenty years are investigated. This problem mainly has two levels of decision makers: the government/policy makers and biofuel producers/electricity generators/farmers. We focus on the lower-level problem to predict the amount of capacity expansions, fuel production, and power generation. In the second part, we address uncertainty over demand and lead time in a multi-stage mathematical programming problem. We propose a two-stage tri-level optimization model in the concept of rolling horizon approach to reducing the dimensionality of the multi-stage problem. In the third part of the dissertation, we introduce a new branch and bound algorithm to solve bilevel linear programming problems. The total time is reduced by solving a smaller relaxation problem in each node and decreasing the number of iterations. Computational experiments show that the proposed algorithm is faster than the existing ones.

Risks posed by climate change to the delivery of Water Framework Directive objectives in the UK.

PubMed

Wilby, R L; Orr, H G; Hedger, M; Forrow, D; Blackmore, M

2006-12-01

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is novel because it integrates water quality, water resources, physical habitat and, to some extent, flooding for all surface and groundwaters and takes forward river basin management. However, the WFD does not explicitly mention risks posed by climate change to the achievement of its environmental objectives. This is despite the fact that the time scale for the implementation process and achieving particular objectives extends into the 2020s, when climate models project changes in average temperature and precipitation. This paper begins by reviewing the latest UK climate change scenarios and the wider policy and science context of the WFD. We then examine the potential risks of climate change to key phases of the River Basin Management Process that underpin the WFD (such as characterisation of river basins and their water bodies, risk assessments to identify pressures and impacts, programmes of measures (POMs) options appraisal, monitoring and modelling, policy and management activities). Despite these risks the WFD could link new policy and participative mechanisms (being established for the River Basin Management Plans) to the emerging framework of national and regional climate change adaptation policy. The risks are identified with a view to informing policy opportunities, objective setting, adaptation strategies and the research agenda. Key knowledge gaps have already been identified during the implementation of the WFD, such as the links between hydromorphology and ecosystem status, but the overarching importance of linking climate change to these considerations needs to be highlighted. The next generation of (probabilistic) climate change scenarios will present new opportunities and challenges for risk analysis and policy-making.

Evaluating Community Readiness to Implement Environmental and Policy-Based Alcohol Abuse Prevention Strategies in Wisconsin

PubMed Central

Paltzer, Jason; Black, Penny; Moberg, D. Paul

2013-01-01

Background Matching evidence-based alcohol prevention strategies with a community’s readiness to support those strategies is the basis for the Tri-Ethnic Community Readiness Model (CRM). The purpose of this evaluation was to assess the association of a community’s readiness to address alcohol abuse in their community with the implementation of environmental and policy-based strategies. Methods Twenty-one substance abuse prevention coalitions in Wisconsin participated in a pre-post intervention group-only evaluation using the CRM. As part of a Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) grant, all grantees were obligated by the Wisconsin Department of Health Services to implement environmental and policy-based strategies focused on one of three priority areas: young adult binge drinking, underage drinking, and alcohol-related motor-vehicle injuries and fatalities. Results At baseline, all communities (n=21) scored at or below a Stage 4 (on a scale of 1–9) readiness level (“preparedness”). The mean change in community readiness over the three-year period (2009–2011) was significant, but was less than one complete CRM stage (0.77, p=<0.001; 95% CI: 0.49, 1.05). Conclusion These findings suggest that implementation of environmental and policy-based strategies may improve a community’s progression in perceived readiness to address alcohol abuse regardless of the community’s baseline level of readiness to address alcohol abuse. Recommendation An assessment specific for measuring community readiness for policy-related strategies should be developed. The assessment would include community-level factors (e.g. community climate) for implementing policy-related prevention strategies, and not assume a linear readiness model. PMID:25346555

GIS-based suitability modeling and multi-criteria decision analysis for utility scale solar plants in four states in the Southeast U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tisza, Kata

Photovoltaic (PV) development shows significantly smaller growth in the Southeast U.S., than in the Southwest; which is mainly due to the low cost of fossil-fuel based energy production in the region and the lack of solar incentives. However, the Southeast has appropriate insolation conditions (4.0-6.0 KWh/m2/day) for photovoltaic deployment and in the past decade the region has experienced the highest population growth for the entire country. These factors, combined with new renewable energy portfolio policies, could create an opportunity for PV to provide some of the energy that will be required to sustain this growth. The goal of the study was to investigate the potential for PV generation in the Southeast region by identifying suitable areas for a utility-scale solar power plant deployment. Four states with currently low solar penetration were studied: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee. Feasible areas were assessed with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software using solar, land use and population growth criteria combined with proximity to transmission lines and roads. After the GIS-based assessment of the areas, technological potential was calculated for each state. Multi-decision analysis model (MCDA) was used to simulate the decision making method for a strategic PV installation. The model accounted for all criteria necessary to consider in case of a PV development and also included economic and policy criteria, which is thought to be a strong influence on the PV market. Three different scenarios were established, representing decision makers' theoretical preferences. Map layers created in the first part were used as basis for the MCDA and additional technical, economic and political/market criteria were added. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to test the model's robustness. Finally, weighted criteria were assigned to the GIS map layers, so that the different preference systems could be visualized. As a result, lands suitable for a potential industrial-scale PV deployment were assessed. Moreover, a precise calculation for technical potential was conducted, with a capacity factor determined by the actual insolation of the sum of each specific feasible area. The results of the study showed that, for a utility-scale PV utility deployment, significant amount of feasible areas are available, with good electricity generation potential Moreover, a stable MCDA model was established for supporting strategic decision making in a PV deployment. Also, changes of suitable lands for utility-scale PV installations were visualized in GIS for the state of Tennessee.

Developing Flexible, Integrated Hydrologic Modeling Systems for Multiscale Analysis in the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.; Sharma, A.; Byun, K.; Hanson, Z.

2016-12-01

Physically based hydrologic modeling of surface and groundwater resources that can be flexibly and efficiently applied to support water resources policy/planning/management decisions at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales are greatly needed in the Midwest, where stakeholder access to such tools is currently a fundamental barrier to basic climate change assessment and adaptation efforts, and also the co-production of useful products to support detailed decision making. Based on earlier pilot studies in the Pacific Northwest Region, we are currently assembling a suite of end-to-end tools and resources to support various kinds of water resources planning and management applications across the region. One of the key aspects of these integrated tools is that the user community can access gridded products at any point along the end-to-end chain of models, looking backwards in time about 100 years (1915-2015), and forwards in time about 85 years using CMIP5 climate model projections. The integrated model is composed of historical and projected future meteorological data based on station observations and statistical and dynamically downscaled climate model output respectively. These gridded meteorological data sets serve as forcing data for the macro-scale VIC hydrologic model implemented over the Midwest at 1/16 degree resolution. High-resolution climate model (4km WRF) output provides inputs for the analyses of urban impacts, hydrologic extremes, agricultural impacts, and impacts to the Great Lakes. Groundwater recharge estimated by the surface water model provides input data for fine-scale and macro-scale groundwater models needed for specific applications. To highlight the multi-scale use of the integrated models in support of co-production of scientific information for decision making, we briefly describe three current case studies addressing different spatial scales of analysis: 1) Effects of climate change on the water balance of the Great Lakes, 2) Future hydropower resources in the St. Joseph River basin, 3) Effects of climate change on carbon cycling in small lakes in the Northern Highland Lakes District.

Covert Coercion: A Formal Analysis of Unconventional Warfare as an Interstate Coercive Policy Option

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

as the most notable of the founding game theorist patriarchs .121 Game theory’s evolution and development exploded during World War II and the...Kennan’s “containment” telegraph. Containment sought to prevent the further expansion of communism by developing a sphere of democratic influence in...the subjective cardinal value interval scaling used to model the decision behavior of the principal actors, which is resultant from the author’s

Attitudes of pharmacists and physicians to antibiotic policies in hospitals.

PubMed

Adu, A; Simpson, J M; Armour, C L

1999-06-01

Antibiotic therapy in hospitals has substantial impact on patient outcome and the pharmacy drug budget. Antibiotic policies have been implemented by some hospitals to improve the quality of patient outcome and cost of antibiotic therapy. Antibiotic policies impose certain requirements on pharmacists and physicians. Pharmacists' and physicians' attitudes to and opinions about antibiotic policies are likely to affect the usefulness of such policies. To determine the attitudes of pharmacists and physicians to antibiotic policies in New South Wales (NSW) hospitals. Pharmacists and physicians in NSW public hospitals were surveyed to determine their attitudes to and opinions on antibiotic policies. A simple one-stage cluster sample of 241 pharmacists and a two-stage cluster sample of 701 physicians were obtained. Factor analysis was used to identify the attitudinal dimensions. General linear modelling was used to investigate the effects of predictor variables on outcome variables. The response rates were 91% and 77% for pharmacists and physicians, respectively. Factor analysis identified three dimensions of attitude to antibiotic policies: that they encourage rational antibiotic use; that they improve the quality of antibiotic prescribing and that they are associated with some problems. The reliability of these factors (Cronbach's alpha) ranged from 0.71 to 0.74, and was 0.90 for the overall attitude scale. Pharmacists and physicians had a positive overall attitude to antibiotic policies. Whereas physicians recognize that antibiotic policies improve the quality of prescribing, this was highly correlated with identification of problems (alpha = 0.71). In urban hospitals, pharmacists were more likely than physicians to associate antibiotics with problems. There was a positive overall attitude to hospital antibiotic policies expressed by pharmacists and physicians.

Incorporating teleconnection information into reservoir operating policies using Stochastic Dynamic Programming and a Hidden Markov Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen

2015-04-01

Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating to both the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole influence local hydro-meteorological processes; statistically significant lag correlations have already been established. Simulation of the derived operating policies, which are benchmarked against standard policies conditioned on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, demonstrates the potential of the proposed approach. Future research will further develop the model for sensitivity analysis and regional studies examining the economic value of incorporating long range forecasts into reservoir operation.

Evaluating the implementation of a national disclosure policy for large-scale adverse events in an integrated health care system: identification of gaps and successes.

PubMed

Maguire, Elizabeth M; Bokhour, Barbara G; Wagner, Todd H; Asch, Steven M; Gifford, Allen L; Gallagher, Thomas H; Durfee, Janet M; Martinello, Richard A; Elwy, A Rani

2016-11-11

Many healthcare organizations have developed disclosure policies for large-scale adverse events, including the Veterans Health Administration (VA). This study evaluated VA's national large-scale disclosure policy and identifies gaps and successes in its implementation. Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with leaders, hospital employees, and patients at nine sites to elicit their perceptions of recent large-scale adverse events notifications and the national disclosure policy. Data were coded using the constructs of the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). We conducted 97 interviews. Insights included how to handle the communication of large-scale disclosures through multiple levels of a large healthcare organization and manage ongoing communications about the event with employees. Of the 5 CFIR constructs and 26 sub-constructs assessed, seven were prominent in interviews. Leaders and employees specifically mentioned key problem areas involving 1) networks and communications during disclosure, 2) organizational culture, 3) engagement of external change agents during disclosure, and 4) a need for reflecting on and evaluating the policy implementation and disclosure itself. Patients shared 5) preferences for personal outreach by phone in place of the current use of certified letters. All interviewees discussed 6) issues with execution and 7) costs of the disclosure. CFIR analysis reveals key problem areas that need to be addresses during disclosure, including: timely communication patterns throughout the organization, establishing a supportive culture prior to implementation, using patient-approved, effective communications strategies during disclosures; providing follow-up support for employees and patients, and sharing lessons learned.

Improvements of the Penalty Avoiding Rational Policy Making Algorithm and an Application to the Othello Game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyazaki, Kazuteru; Tsuboi, Sougo; Kobayashi, Shigenobu

The purpose of reinforcement learning is to learn an optimal policy in general. However, in 2-players games such as the othello game, it is important to acquire a penalty avoiding policy. In this paper, we focus on formation of a penalty avoiding policy based on the Penalty Avoiding Rational Policy Making algorithm [Miyazaki 01]. In applying it to large-scale problems, we are confronted with the curse of dimensionality. We introduce several ideas and heuristics to overcome the combinational explosion in large-scale problems. First, we propose an algorithm to save the memory by calculation of state transition. Second, we describe how to restrict exploration by two type knowledge; KIFU database and evaluation funcion. We show that our learning player can always defeat against the well-known othello game program KITTY.

Scale-up of a comprehensive harm reduction programme for people injecting opioids: lessons from north-eastern India

PubMed Central

Lalmuanpuii, Melody; Biangtung, Langkham; Mishra, Ritu Kumar; Reeve, Matthew J; Tzudier, Sentimoa; Singh, Angom L; Sinate, Rebecca

2013-01-01

Abstract Problem Harm reduction packages for people who inject illicit drugs, including those infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), are cost-effective but have not been scaled up globally. In the north-eastern Indian states of Manipur and Nagaland, the epidemic of HIV infection is driven by the injection of illicit drugs, especially opioids. These states needed to scale up harm reduction programmes but faced difficulty doing so. Approach In 2004, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation funded Project ORCHID to scale up a harm reduction programme in Manipur and Nagaland. Local setting In 2003, an estimated 10 000 and 16 000 people were injecting drugs in Manipur and Nagaland, respectively. The prevalence of HIV infection among people injecting drugs was 24.5% in Manipur and 8.4% in Nagaland. Relevant changes By 2012, the harm reduction programme had been scaled up to an average of 9011 monthly contacts outside clinics (80% of target); an average of 1709 monthly clinic visits (15% of target, well above the 5% monthly goal) and an average monthly distribution of needles and syringes of 16 each per programme participant. Opioid agonist maintenance treatment coverage was 13.7% and retention 6 months after enrolment was 63%. Antiretroviral treatment coverage for HIV-positive participants was 81%. Lessons learnt A harm reduction model consisting of community-owned, locally relevant innovations and business approaches can result in good harm reduction programme scale-up and influence harm reduction policy. Project ORCHID has influenced national harm reduction policy in India and contributed to the development of harm reduction guidelines. PMID:23599555

Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in RCP-like scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuwah, Clifford; van Noije, Twan; van Vuuren, Detlef; Hazeleger, Wilco; Strunk, Achim; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; van Vliet, Jasper

2013-04-01

Estimation of future emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols from human activities is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), however, all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control policies will be implemented in the coming decades. In this study, we therefore explore the consequences of four alternative emission scenarios generated using the IMAGE integrated assessment model following the methods used to generate the RCPs. These scenarios combine low and high air pollution variants of the scenarios with radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 2.6 W/m2 and 6.0 W/m2 (the high air pollution variants assume no improvement in emission factors, representing a hypothetical upper end of emission levels). Analysis using the global atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 shows that climate mitigation and air pollution control policy variants studied here have similar large-scale effects on the concentrations of ozone and black carbon; the impact of climate policy, however, has a stronger impact on sulphate concentrations. Air pollution control measures could significantly reduce the warming by tropospheric ozone and black carbon and the cooling by sulphate already in 2020, and on the longer term contribute to enhanced warming by methane. These effects tend to cancel each other at the global scale. According to our estimates the effect of the worldwide implementation of air pollution control measures on the total global mean direct radiative forcing in 2050 is +0.09 W/m2 in the 6.0 W/m2 scenario and -0.16 W/m2 in the 2.6 W/m2 scenario.

Economic evaluation on CO₂-EOR of onshore oil fields in China

DOE PAGES

Wei, Ning; Li, Xiaochun; Dahowski, Robert T.; ...

2015-06-01

Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO₂-EOR) and sequestration in depleted oil reservoirs is a plausible option for utilizing anthropogenic CO₂ to increase oil production while storing CO₂ underground. Evaluation of the storage resources and cost of potential CO₂-EOR projects is an essential step before the commencement of large-scale deployment of such activities. In this paper, a hybrid techno-economic evaluation method, including a performance model and cost model for onshore CO₂-EOR projects, has been developed based on previous studies. Total 296 onshore oil fields, accounting for about 70% of total mature onshore oil fields in China, were evaluated by the techno-economicmore » method. The key findings of this study are summarized as follows: (1) deterministic analysis shows there are approximately 1.1 billion tons (7.7 billion barrels) of incremental crude oil and 2.2 billion tons CO₂ storage resource for onshore CO₂-EOR at net positive revenue within the Chinese oil fields reviewed under the given operating strategy and economic assumptions. (2) Sensitivity study highlights that the cumulative oil production and cumulative CO₂ storage resource are very sensitive to crude oil price, CO₂ cost, project lifetime, discount rate and tax policy. High oil price, short project lifetime, low discount rate, low CO₂ cost, and low tax policy can greatly increase the net income of the oil enterprise, incremental oil recovery and CO₂ storage resource. (3) From this techno-economic evaluation, the major barriers to large-scale deployment of CO₂-EOR include complex geological conditions, low API of crude oil, high tax policy, and lack of incentives for the CO₂-EOR project.« less

Economic evaluation on CO₂-EOR of onshore oil fields in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Ning; Li, Xiaochun; Dahowski, Robert T.

Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO₂-EOR) and sequestration in depleted oil reservoirs is a plausible option for utilizing anthropogenic CO₂ to increase oil production while storing CO₂ underground. Evaluation of the storage resources and cost of potential CO₂-EOR projects is an essential step before the commencement of large-scale deployment of such activities. In this paper, a hybrid techno-economic evaluation method, including a performance model and cost model for onshore CO₂-EOR projects, has been developed based on previous studies. Total 296 onshore oil fields, accounting for about 70% of total mature onshore oil fields in China, were evaluated by the techno-economicmore » method. The key findings of this study are summarized as follows: (1) deterministic analysis shows there are approximately 1.1 billion tons (7.7 billion barrels) of incremental crude oil and 2.2 billion tons CO₂ storage resource for onshore CO₂-EOR at net positive revenue within the Chinese oil fields reviewed under the given operating strategy and economic assumptions. (2) Sensitivity study highlights that the cumulative oil production and cumulative CO₂ storage resource are very sensitive to crude oil price, CO₂ cost, project lifetime, discount rate and tax policy. High oil price, short project lifetime, low discount rate, low CO₂ cost, and low tax policy can greatly increase the net income of the oil enterprise, incremental oil recovery and CO₂ storage resource. (3) From this techno-economic evaluation, the major barriers to large-scale deployment of CO₂-EOR include complex geological conditions, low API of crude oil, high tax policy, and lack of incentives for the CO₂-EOR project.« less

Kartini's Children: On the Need for Thinking Gender and Education Together on a World Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Connell, Raewyn

2010-01-01

A world policy agenda for gender equality in education now exists, realising the idea of earlier reformers such as Kartini. This agenda, however, makes assumptions that are strongly contested by research and policy debates in national forums. This essay urges shifting the framework of gender analysis to global scale. It outlines what is involved…

Alcohol Policies and Alcohol-Involved Homicide Victimization in the United States.

PubMed

Naimi, Timothy S; Xuan, Ziming; Coleman, Sharon M; Lira, Marlene C; Hadland, Scott E; Cooper, Susanna E; Heeren, Timothy C; Swahn, Monica H

2017-09-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the associations between the alcohol policy environment and alcohol involvement in homicide victims in the United States, overall and by sociodemographic groups. To characterize the alcohol policy environment, the presence, efficacy, and degree of implementation of 29 alcohol policies were used to determine Alcohol Policy Scale (APS) scores by state and year. Data about homicide victims from 17 states from 2003 to 2012 were obtained from the National Violent Death Reporting System. APS scores were used as lagged exposure variables in generalized estimating equation logistic regression models to predict the individual-level odds of alcohol involvement (i.e., blood alcohol concentration [BAC] > 0.00% vs. = 0.00% and BAC ≥ 0.08% vs. ≤ 0.079%) among homicide victims. A 10 percentage point increase in APS score (representing a more restrictive policy environment) was associated with reduced odds of alcohol-involved homicide with BAC greater than 0.00% (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.89, 95% CI [0.82, 0.99]) and BAC of 0.08% or more (AOR = 0.91, 95% CI [0.82, 1.02]). In stratified analyses of homicide victims, more restrictive policy environments were significantly protective of alcohol involvement at both BAC levels among those who were female, ages 21-29 years, Hispanic, unmarried, victims of firearm homicides, and victims of homicides related to intimate partner violence. More restrictive alcohol policy environments were associated with reduced odds of alcohol-involved homicide victimization overall and among groups at high risk of homicide. Strengthening alcohol policies is a promising homicide prevention strategy.

Can modeling of HIV treatment processes improve outcomes? Capitalizing on an operations research approach to the global pandemic

PubMed Central

Xiong, Wei; Hupert, Nathaniel; Hollingsworth, Eric B; O'Brien, Megan E; Fast, Jessica; Rodriguez, William R

2008-01-01

Background Mathematical modeling has been applied to a range of policy-level decisions on resource allocation for HIV care and treatment. We describe the application of classic operations research (OR) techniques to address logistical and resource management challenges in HIV treatment scale-up activities in resource-limited countries. Methods We review and categorize several of the major logistical and operational problems encountered over the last decade in the global scale-up of HIV care and antiretroviral treatment for people with AIDS. While there are unique features of HIV care and treatment that pose significant challenges to effective modeling and service improvement, we identify several analogous OR-based solutions that have been developed in the service, industrial, and health sectors. Results HIV treatment scale-up includes many processes that are amenable to mathematical and simulation modeling, including forecasting future demand for services; locating and sizing facilities for maximal efficiency; and determining optimal staffing levels at clinical centers. Optimization of clinical and logistical processes through modeling may improve outcomes, but successful OR-based interventions will require contextualization of response strategies, including appreciation of both existing health care systems and limitations in local health workforces. Conclusion The modeling techniques developed in the engineering field of operations research have wide potential application to the variety of logistical problems encountered in HIV treatment scale-up in resource-limited settings. Increasing the number of cross-disciplinary collaborations between engineering and public health will help speed the appropriate development and application of these tools. PMID:18680594

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Modeling the Impact and Cost of Expanding Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in Eastern and Southern Africa

PubMed Central

Reed, Jason; Opuni, Marjorie; Bollinger, Lori; Heard, Nathan; Castor, Delivette; Stover, John; Farley, Timothy; Menon, Veena; Hankins, Catherine

2011-01-01

Background There is strong evidence showing that voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces HIV incidence in men. To inform the VMMC policies and goals of 13 priority countries in eastern and southern Africa, we estimate the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC using updated, country-specific data. Methods and Findings We use the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) to model the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC in Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Nyanza Province in Kenya. We use epidemiologic and demographic data from recent household surveys for each country. The cost of VMMC ranges from US$65.85 to US$95.15 per VMMC performed, based on a cost assessment of VMMC services aligned with the World Health Organization's considerations of models for optimizing volume and efficiencies. Results from the DMPPT models suggest that scaling up adult VMMC to reach 80% coverage in the 13 countries by 2015 would entail performing 20.34 million circumcisions between 2011 and 2015 and an additional 8.42 million between 2016 and 2025 (to maintain the 80% coverage). Such a scale-up would result in averting 3.36 million new HIV infections through 2025. In addition, while the model shows that this scale-up would cost a total of US$2 billion between 2011 and 2025, it would result in net savings (due to averted treatment and care costs) amounting to US$16.51 billion. Conclusions This study suggests that rapid scale-up of VMMC in eastern and southern Africa is warranted based on the likely impact on the region's HIV epidemics and net savings. Scaling up of safe VMMC in eastern and southern Africa will lead to a substantial reduction in HIV infections in the countries and lower health system costs through averted HIV care costs. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. PMID:22140367

Soil Erosion map of Europe based on high resolution input datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Ballabio, Cristiano; Alewell, Christine

2015-04-01

Modelling soil erosion in European Union is of major importance for agro-environmental policies. Soil erosion estimates are important inputs for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the implementation of the Soil Thematic Strategy. Using the findings of a recent pan-European data collection through the EIONET network, it was concluded that most Member States are applying the empirical Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) for the modelling soil erosion at National level. This model was chosen for the pan-European soil erosion risk assessment and it is based on 6 input factors. Compared to past approaches, each of the factors is modelled using the latest pan-European datasets, expertise and data from Member states and high resolution remote sensing data. The soil erodibility (K-factor) is modelled using the recently published LUCAS topsoil database with 20,000 point measurements and incorporating the surface stone cover which can reduce K-factor by 15%. The rainfall erosivity dataset (R-factor) has been implemented using high temporal resolution rainfall data from more than 1,500 precipitation stations well distributed in Europe. The cover-management (C-factor) incorporates crop statistics and management practices such as cover crops, tillage practices and plant residuals. The slope length and steepness (combined LS-factor) is based on the first ever 25m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of Europe. Finally, the support practices (P-factor) is modelled for first time at this scale taking into account the 270,000 LUCAS earth observations and the Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition (GAEC) that farmers have to follow in Europe. The high resolution input layers produce the final soil erosion risk map at 100m resolution and allow policy makers to run future land use, management and climate change scenarios.

Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lucas, Paul; Nielsen, Jens; Calvin, Katherine V.

Although Africa’s share in the global energy system is only small today, the ongoing population growth and economic development imply that this can change significantly. In this paper, we discuss long-term energy developments in Africa using the results of the LIMITS model inter-comparison study. The analysis focusses on the position of Africa in the wider global energy system and climate mitigation. The results show a considerable spread in model outcomes. Without specific climate policy, Africa’s share in global CO 2 emissions is projected to increase from around 1-4% today to 3-23% by 2100. In all models, emissions only start tomore » become really significant on a global scale after 2050. Furthermore, by 2030 still around 50% of total household energy use is supplied through traditional bio-energy, in contrast to existing ambitions from international organisations to provide access to modern energy for all. After 2050, the energy mix is projected to converge towards a global average energy mix with high shares of fossil fuels and electricity use. Finally, although the continent is now a large net exporter of oil and gas, towards 2050 it most likely needs most of its resources to meet its rapidly growing domestic demand. With respect to climate policy, the rapid expansion of the industrial and the power sector also create large mitigation potential and thereby the possibility to align the investment peak in the energy system with climate policy and potential revenues from international carbon trading.« less

Big Data Processing for a Central Texas Groundwater Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantu, A.; Rivera, O.; Martínez, A.; Lewis, D. H.; Gentle, J. N., Jr.; Fuentes, G.; Pierce, S. A.

2016-12-01

As computational methods improve, scientists are able to expand the level and scale of experimental simulation and testing that is completed for case studies. This study presents a comparative analysis of multiple models for the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards aquifer. Several numerical simulations using state-mandated MODFLOW models ran on Stampede, a High Performance Computing system housed at the Texas Advanced Computing Center, were performed for multiple scenario testing. One goal of this multidisciplinary project aims to visualize and compare the output data of the groundwater model using the statistical programming language R to find revealing data patterns produced by different pumping scenarios. Presenting data in a friendly post-processing format is covered in this paper. Visualization of the data and creating workflows applicable to the management of the data are tasks performed after data extraction. Resulting analyses provide an example of how supercomputing can be used to accelerate evaluation of scientific uncertainty and geological knowledge in relation to policy and management decisions. Understanding the aquifer behavior helps policy makers avoid negative impact on the endangered species, environmental services and aids in maximizing the aquifer yield.

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Doelman, Jonathan; Drouet, Laurent; Edmonds, Jae; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Havlík, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Stehfest, Elke; Tavoni, Massimo

2018-04-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m-2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m-2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m-2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

Characterization of exchange rate regimes based on scaling and correlation properties of volatility for ASEAN-5 countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muniandy, Sithi V.; Uning, Rosemary

2006-11-01

Foreign currency exchange rate policies of ASEAN member countries have undergone tremendous changes following the 1997 Asian financial crisis. In this paper, we study the fractal and long-memory characteristics in the volatility of five ASEAN founding members’ exchange rates with respect to US dollar. The impact of exchange rate policies implemented by the ASEAN-5 countries on the currency fluctuations during pre-, mid- and post-crisis are briefly discussed. The time series considered are daily price returns, absolute returns and aggregated absolute returns, each partitioned into three segments based on the crisis regimes. These time series are then modeled using fractional Gaussian noise, fractionally integrated ARFIMA (0,d,0) and generalized Cauchy process. The first two stationary models provide the description of long-range dependence through Hurst and fractional differencing parameter, respectively. Meanwhile, the generalized Cauchy process offers independent estimation of fractal dimension and long memory exponent. In comparison, among the three models we found that the generalized Cauchy process showed greater sensitivity to transition of exchange rate regimes that were implemented by ASEAN-5 countries.

Peak capacity analysis of coal power in China based on full-life cycle cost model optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Jinfang; Huang, Xinting

2018-02-01

13th five-year and the next period are critical for the energy and power reform of China. In order to ease the excessive power supply, policies have been introduced by National Energy Board especially toward coal power capacity control. Therefore the rational construction scale and scientific development timing for coal power are of great importance and paid more and more attentions. In this study, the comprehensive influence of coal power reduction policies is analyzed from diverse point of views. Full-life cycle cost model of coal power is established to fully reflect the external and internal cost. Then this model is introduced in an improved power planning optimization theory. The power planning and diverse scenarios production simulation shows that, in order to meet the power, electricity and peak balance of power system, China’s coal power peak capacity is within 1.15 ∼ 1.2 billion kilowatts before or after 2025. The research result is expected to be helpful to the power industry in 14th and 15th five-year periods, promoting the efficiency and safety of power system.

Modelling the impacts of new diagnostic tools for tuberculosis in developing countries to enhance policy decisions.

PubMed

Langley, Ivor; Doulla, Basra; Lin, Hsien-Ho; Millington, Kerry; Squire, Bertie

2012-09-01

The introduction and scale-up of new tools for the diagnosis of Tuberculosis (TB) in developing countries has the potential to make a huge difference to the lives of millions of people living in poverty. To achieve this, policy makers need the information to make the right decisions about which new tools to implement and where in the diagnostic algorithm to apply them most effectively. These decisions are difficult as the new tools are often expensive to implement and use, and the health system and patient impacts uncertain, particularly in developing countries where there is a high burden of TB. The authors demonstrate that a discrete event simulation model could play a significant part in improving and informing these decisions. The feasibility of linking the discrete event simulation to a dynamic epidemiology model is also explored in order to take account of longer term impacts on the incidence of TB. Results from two diagnostic districts in Tanzania are used to illustrate how the approach could be used to improve decisions.

A model of urban scaling laws based on distance dependent interactions

PubMed Central

Ribeiro, Fabiano L.; Meirelles, Joao; Ferreira, Fernando F.

2017-01-01

Socio-economic related properties of a city grow faster than a linear relationship with the population, in a log–log plot, the so-called superlinear scaling. Conversely, the larger a city, the more efficient it is in the use of its infrastructure, leading to a sublinear scaling on these variables. In this work, we addressed a simple explanation for those scaling laws in cities based on the interaction range between the citizens and on the fractal properties of the cities. To this purpose, we introduced a measure of social potential which captured the influence of social interaction on the economic performance and the benefits of amenities in the case of infrastructure offered by the city. We assumed that the population density depends on the fractal dimension and on the distance-dependent interactions between individuals. The model suggests that when the city interacts as a whole, and not just as a set of isolated parts, there is improvement of the socio-economic indicators. Moreover, the bigger the interaction range between citizens and amenities, the bigger the improvement of the socio-economic indicators and the lower the infrastructure costs of the city. We addressed how public policies could take advantage of these properties to improve cities development, minimizing negative effects. Furthermore, the model predicts that the sum of the scaling exponents of social-economic and infrastructure variables are 2, as observed in the literature. Simulations with an agent-based model are confronted with the theoretical approach and they are compatible with the empirical evidences. PMID:28405381

Cost Optimal Elastic Auto-Scaling in Cloud Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, S.; Sidhanta, S.; Ganguly, S.; Nemani, R. R.

2014-12-01

Today, elastic scaling is critical part of leveraging cloud. Elastic scaling refers to adding resources only when it is needed and deleting resources when not in use. Elastic scaling ensures compute/server resources are not over provisioned. Today, Amazon and Windows Azure are the only two platform provider that allow auto-scaling of cloud resources where servers are automatically added and deleted. However, these solution falls short of following key features: A) Requires explicit policy definition such server load and therefore lacks any predictive intelligence to make optimal decision; B) Does not decide on the right size of resource and thereby does not result in cost optimal resource pool. In a typical cloud deployment model, we consider two types of application scenario: A. Batch processing jobs → Hadoop/Big Data case B. Transactional applications → Any application that process continuous transactions (Requests/response) In reference of classical queuing model, we are trying to model a scenario where servers have a price and capacity (size) and system can add delete servers to maintain a certain queue length. Classical queueing models applies to scenario where number of servers are constant. So we cannot apply stationary system analysis in this case. We investigate the following questions 1. Can we define Job queue and use the metric to define such a queue to predict the resource requirement in a quasi-stationary way? Can we map that into an optimal sizing problem? 2. Do we need to get into a level of load (CPU/Data) on server level to characterize the size requirement? How do we learn that based on Job type?

A system dynamics approach to the study of Colombian coca cultivation and the counter-intuitive consequence of law enforcement.

PubMed

Jaén, Sebastian; Dyner, Isaac

2014-03-01

A large-scale expansion of the Colombian coca cultivation is one of the most revealing signs of a structural change in the illegal cocaine market in the Andean region. From being a modest and domestic production, in the space of five years Colombian coca cultivation supplied a competitive market, capable of substituting almost completely the foreign sources of supply. The purpose of this work is to explore the role and potential of system dynamics (SD) as a modeling methodology to better understand the consequences of drug policy. As a case study, this work tests the hypothesis that the outbreak of Colombian coca cultivations is a consequence of the take down of large cartels, leading to the surge of small drug-trafficking firms called "cartelitos." Using an SD model, and elements from the economic theory of the criminal firm, our work shows how the formation of these small firms might significantly contribute to the configuring of a more competitive domestic coca industry (and hence to a more efficient crime industry). We conclude that SD seems an appropriate dynamic modeling-based approach to address policy issues regarding drug markets. The methodology takes into account the dynamic nature of drug markets and their multi-dimensional responses to policy interventions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma

2015-01-01

At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…

Co-optimizing Generation and Transmission Expansion with Wind Power in Large-Scale Power Grids Implementation in the US Eastern Interconnection

DOE PAGES

You, Shutang; Hadley, Stanton W.; Shankar, Mallikarjun; ...

2016-01-12

This paper studies the generation and transmission expansion co-optimization problem with a high wind power penetration rate in the US Eastern Interconnection (EI) power grid. In this paper, the generation and transmission expansion problem for the EI system is modeled as a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem. Our paper also analyzed a time series generation method to capture the variation and correlation of both load and wind power across regions. The obtained series can be easily introduced into the expansion planning problem and then solved through existing MIP solvers. Simulation results show that the proposed planning model and series generation methodmore » can improve the expansion result significantly through modeling more detailed information of wind and load variation among regions in the US EI system. Moreover, the improved expansion plan that combines generation and transmission will aid system planners and policy makers to maximize the social welfare in large-scale power grids.« less

The transmissibility estimation of influenza with early stage data of small-scale outbreaks in Changsha, China, 2005-2013.

PubMed

Chen, T M; Chen, Q P; Liu, R C; Szot, A; Chen, S L; Zhao, J; Zhou, S S

2017-02-01

Hundreds of small-scale influenza outbreaks in schools are reported in mainland China every year, leading to a heavy disease burden which seriously impacts the operation of affected schools. Knowing the transmissibility of each outbreak in the early stage has become a major concern for public health policy-makers and primary healthcare providers. In this study, we collected all the small-scale outbreaks in Changsha (a large city in south central China with ~7·04 million population) from January 2005 to December 2013. Four simple and popularly used models were employed to calculate the reproduction number (R) of these outbreaks. Given that the duration of a generation interval Tc = 2·7 and the standard deviation (s.d.) σ = 1·1, the mean R estimated by an epidemic model, normal distribution and delta distribution were 2·51 (s.d. = 0·73), 4·11 (s.d. = 2·20) and 5·88 (s.d. = 5·00), respectively. When Tc = 2·9 and σ = 1·4, the mean R estimated by the three models were 2·62 (s.d. = 0·78), 4·72 (s.d. = 2·82) and 6·86 (s.d. = 6·34), respectively. The mean R estimated by gamma distribution was 4·32 (s.d. = 2·47). We found that the values of R in small-scale outbreaks in schools were higher than in large-scale outbreaks in a neighbourhood, city or province. Normal distribution, delta distribution, and gamma distribution models seem to more easily overestimate the R of influenza outbreaks compared to the epidemic model.

Factors associated with small-scale agricultural machinery adoption in Bangladesh: Census findings.

PubMed

Mottaleb, Khondoker Abdul; Krupnik, Timothy J; Erenstein, Olaf

2016-08-01

There is strong advocacy for agricultural machinery appropriate for smallholder farmers in South Asia. Such 'scale-appropriate' machinery can increase returns to land and labour, although the still substantial capital investment required can preclude smallholder ownership. Increasing machinery demand has resulted in relatively well-developed markets for rental services for tillage, irrigation, and post-harvest operations. Many smallholders thereby access agricultural machinery that may have otherwise been cost prohibitive to purchase through fee-for-service arrangements, though opportunity for expansion remains. To more effectively facilitate the development and investment in scale-appropriate machinery, there is a need to better understand the factors associated with agricultural machinery purchases and service provision. This paper first reviews Bangladesh's historical policy environment that facilitated the development of agricultural machinery markets. It then uses recent Bangladesh census data from 814,058 farm households to identify variables associated with the adoption of the most common smallholder agricultural machinery - irrigation pumps, threshers, and power tillers (mainly driven by two-wheel tractors). Multinomial probit model results indicate that machinery ownership is positively associated with household assets, credit availability, electrification, and road density. These findings suggest that donors and policy makers should focus not only on short-term projects to boost machinery adoption. Rather, sustained emphasis on improving physical and civil infrastructure and services, as well as assuring credit availability, is also necessary to create an enabling environment in which the adoption of scale-appropriate farm machinery is most likely.

Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on the Supply, Management, and Use of Water Resources in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strzepek, K.; Neumann, Jim; Smith, Joel

Climate change impacts on water resources in the U.S. are likely to be far-reaching and substantial, because the water sector spans many parts of the economy, from supply and demand for agriculture, industry, energy production, transportation and municipal use to damages from natural hazards. This paper provides impact and damage estimates from five water resource-related models in the CIRA frame work, addressing drought risk, flooding damages, water supply and demand, and global water scarcity. The four models differ in the water system assessed, their spatial scale, and the units of assessment, but together they provide a quantitative and descriptive richnessmore » in characterizing water resource sector effects of climate change that no single model can capture. The results also address the sensitivity of these estimates to greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate sensitivity alternatives, and global climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, because each of the models applied here uses a consistent set of climate scenarios, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding the patterns of change and the benefits of GHG mitigation policies for the water sector. Two key findings emerge: 1) climate mitigation policy substantially reduces the impact of climate change on the water sector across multiple dimensions; and 2) the more managed the water resources system, the more tempered the climate change impacts and the resulting reduction of impacts from climate mitigation policies.« less

Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on the Supply, Management, and Use of Water Resources in the United States

DOE PAGES

Strzepek, K.; Neumann, Jim; Smith, Joel; ...

2014-11-29

Climate change impacts on water resources in the U.S. are likely to be far-reaching and substantial, because the water sector spans many parts of the economy, from supply and demand for agriculture, industry, energy production, transportation and municipal use to damages from natural hazards. This paper provides impact and damage estimates from five water resource-related models in the CIRA frame work, addressing drought risk, flooding damages, water supply and demand, and global water scarcity. The four models differ in the water system assessed, their spatial scale, and the units of assessment, but together they provide a quantitative and descriptive richnessmore » in characterizing water resource sector effects of climate change that no single model can capture. The results also address the sensitivity of these estimates to greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate sensitivity alternatives, and global climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, because each of the models applied here uses a consistent set of climate scenarios, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding the patterns of change and the benefits of GHG mitigation policies for the water sector. Two key findings emerge: 1) climate mitigation policy substantially reduces the impact of climate change on the water sector across multiple dimensions; and 2) the more managed the water resources system, the more tempered the climate change impacts and the resulting reduction of impacts from climate mitigation policies.« less

Managing emergency department overcrowding via ambulance diversion: a discrete event simulation model.

PubMed

Lin, Chih-Hao; Kao, Chung-Yao; Huang, Chong-Ye

2015-01-01

Ambulance diversion (AD) is considered one of the possible solutions to relieve emergency department (ED) overcrowding. Study of the effectiveness of various AD strategies is prerequisite for policy-making. Our aim is to develop a tool that quantitatively evaluates the effectiveness of various AD strategies. A simulation model and a computer simulation program were developed. Three sets of simulations were executed to evaluate AD initiating criteria, patient-blocking rules, and AD intervals, respectively. The crowdedness index, the patient waiting time for service, and the percentage of adverse patients were assessed to determine the effect of various AD policies. Simulation results suggest that, in a certain setting, the best timing for implementing AD is when the crowdedness index reaches the critical value, 1.0 - an indicator that ED is operating at its maximal capacity. The strategy to divert all patients transported by ambulance is more effective than to divert either high-acuity patients only or low-acuity patients only. Given a total allowable AD duration, implementing AD multiple times with short intervals generally has better effect than having a single AD with maximal allowable duration. An input-throughput-output simulation model is proposed for simulating ED operation. Effectiveness of several AD strategies on relieving ED overcrowding was assessed via computer simulations based on this model. By appropriate parameter settings, the model can represent medical resource providers of different scales. It is also feasible to expand the simulations to evaluate the effect of AD strategies on a community basis. The results may offer insights for making effective AD policies. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Whole system analysis of second generation bioenergy production and Ecosystem Services in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henner, Dagmar; Smith, Pete; Davies, Christian; McNamara, Niall

2017-04-01

Bioenergy crops are an important source of renewable energy and are a possible mechanism to mitigate global climate warming, by replacing fossil fuel energy that has higher greenhouse gas emissions. There is, however, uncertainty about the impacts of the growth of bioenergy crops on ecosystem services. This uncertainty is further enhanced by current climate change. It is important to establish how second generation bioenergy crops (Miscanthus, SRC willow and poplar) can contribute by closing the gap between reducing fossil fuel use and increasing the use of other renewable sources in a sustainable way. The project builds on models of energy crop production, biodiversity, soil impacts, greenhouse gas emissions and other ecosystem services, and on work undertaken in the UK on the ETI-funded ELUM project (www.elum.ac.uk). We will present estimated yields for the above named crops in Europe using the ECOSSE, DayCent, SalixFor and MiscanFor models. These yields will be brought into context with a whole system analysis, detailing trade-offs and synergies for land use change, food security, GHG emissions and soil and water security. Methods like water footprint tools, tourism value maps and ecosystem valuation tools and models (e.g. InVest, TEEB database, GREET LCA Model, World Business Council for Sustainable Development corporate ecosystem valuation, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Ecosystem Services Framework) will be used to estimate and visualise the impacts of increased use of second generation bioenergy crops on the above named ecosystem services. The results will be linked to potential yields to generate "inclusion or exclusion areas" in Europe in order to establish suitable areas for bioenergy crop production and the extent of use possible. Policy is an important factor for using second generation bioenergy crops in a sustainable way. We will present how whole system analysis can be used to create scenarios for countries or on a continental scale. As an example, we will present two scenarios for the whole system on a country basis, based on current renewable energy policy, to visualise the impact of changing policy on the use of bioenergy crops. This will include the economic implications which are directly linked to renewable energy policy, best practice management recommendations, impacts on land use change and food security as well as synergies and trade-offs on other ecosystem services (GHG emission, soil C, nitrogen, water and air security). The aim is to show how second generation bioenergy crops can be used sustainably and what is needed to do this successfully on a large scale. The results can form a basis for future policy development in order to reach the goals of the Paris 2015 agreement.

Plasticity and stability of visual field maps in adult primary visual cortex

PubMed Central

Wandell, Brian A.; Smirnakis, Stelios M.

2010-01-01

Preface It is important to understand the balance between cortical plasticity and stability in various systems and spatial scales in the adult brain. We review measurements of adult plasticity in primary visual cortex (V1), a structure that has a key role in distributing visual information. There are claims of plasticity at multiple spatial scales in adult V1, but many inconsistencies in the data raise questions about the extent and nature of such plasticity. Understanding is further limited by a lack of quantitative models to guide the interpretation of the data. These problems limit efforts to translate research findings about adult cortical plasticity into significant clinical, educational and policy applications. PMID:19904279

Russian Policy on Methane Emissions in the Oil and Gas Sector: A Case Study in Opportunities and Challenges in Reducing Short-Lived Forcers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, Meredydd; Roshchanka, Volha

2014-08-04

This paper uses Russian policy in the oil and gas sector as a case study in assessing options and challenges for scaling-up emission reductions. We examine the challenges to achieving large-scale emission reductions, successes that companies have achieved to date, how Russia has sought to influence methane emissions through its environmental fine system, and options for helping companies achieve large-scale emission reductions in the future through simpler and clearer incentives.

Trends in the utilization of dental outpatient services affected by the expansion of health care benefits in South Korea to include scaling: a 6-year interrupted time-series study

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Purpose This study utilized a strong quasi-experimental design to test the hypothesis that the implementation of a policy to expand dental care services resulted in an increase in the usage of dental outpatient services. Methods A total of 45,650,000 subjects with diagnoses of gingivitis or advanced periodontitis who received dental scaling were selected and examined, utilizing National Health Insurance claims data from July 2010 through November 2015. We performed a segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time-series to analyze the time-series trend in dental costs before and after the policy implementation, and assessed immediate changes in dental costs. Results After the policy change was implemented, a statistically significant 18% increase occurred in the observed total dental cost per patient, after adjustment for age, sex, and residence area. In addition, the dental costs of outpatient gingivitis treatment increased immediately by almost 47%, compared with a 15% increase in treatment costs for advanced periodontitis outpatients. This policy effect appears to be sustainable. Conclusions The introduction of the new policy positively impacted the immediate and long-term outpatient utilization of dental scaling treatment in South Korea. While the policy was intended to entice patients to prevent periodontal disease, thus benefiting the insurance system, our results showed that the policy also increased treatment accessibility for potential periodontal disease patients and may improve long-term periodontal health in the South Korean population. PMID:29535886

Trends in the utilization of dental outpatient services affected by the expansion of health care benefits in South Korea to include scaling: a 6-year interrupted time-series study.

PubMed

Park, Hee-Jung; Lee, Jun Hyup; Park, Sujin; Kim, Tae-Il

2018-02-01

This study utilized a strong quasi-experimental design to test the hypothesis that the implementation of a policy to expand dental care services resulted in an increase in the usage of dental outpatient services. A total of 45,650,000 subjects with diagnoses of gingivitis or advanced periodontitis who received dental scaling were selected and examined, utilizing National Health Insurance claims data from July 2010 through November 2015. We performed a segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time-series to analyze the time-series trend in dental costs before and after the policy implementation, and assessed immediate changes in dental costs. After the policy change was implemented, a statistically significant 18% increase occurred in the observed total dental cost per patient, after adjustment for age, sex, and residence area. In addition, the dental costs of outpatient gingivitis treatment increased immediately by almost 47%, compared with a 15% increase in treatment costs for advanced periodontitis outpatients. This policy effect appears to be sustainable. The introduction of the new policy positively impacted the immediate and long-term outpatient utilization of dental scaling treatment in South Korea. While the policy was intended to entice patients to prevent periodontal disease, thus benefiting the insurance system, our results showed that the policy also increased treatment accessibility for potential periodontal disease patients and may improve long-term periodontal health in the South Korean population.

Let's put this in perspective: using dynamic simulation modelling to assess the impacts of farm-scale land management change on catchment-scale water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivers, Mark; Clarendon, Simon; Coles, Neil

2013-04-01

Natural Resource Management and Agri-industry development groups in Australia have invested considerable resources into the investigation of the economic, social and, particularly, environmental impacts of varying farming activities in a "catchment context". This research has resulted in the development of a much-improved understanding of the likely impacts of changed management practices at the farm-scale as well as the development of a number of conceptual models which place farming within this broader catchment context. The project discussed in this paper transformed a conceptual model of dairy farm phosphorus (P) management and transport processes into a more temporally and spatially dynamic model. This was then loaded with catchment-specific data and used as a "policy support tool" to allow the Australian dairy industry to examine the potential farm and catchment-scale impacts of varying dairy farm management practices within some key dairy farming regions. Models were developed, validated and calibrated using "STELLA©" dynamic modelling software for three catchments in which dairy is perceived as a significant land use. The models describe P movement and cycling within and through dairy farms in great detail and also estimate P transport through major source, sink and flow sectors of the catchments. A series of scenarios were executed for all three catchments which examined three main "groups" of tests: changes to farm P input rates; implementation of perceived environmental "Best Management Practices" (BMPs), and; changes to land use mosaics. Modifications to actual P input rates into dairy farms (not surprisingly) had a major effect on nutrient transport within and from the farms with a significant rise in nutrient loss rates at all scales with increasing fertiliser use. More surprisingly, however, even extensive environmental BMP implementation did not have marked effects on off-farm nutrient loss rates. On and off-farm riparian management implemented over entire catchments, for example, only reduced P losses by approximately 20%. Most importantly, changes to land use mosaics within the catchments provided great insight into the relative roles within the catchment P system of the various land uses. While dairying uses large amounts of P, the effects that dairy farm management can have at the catchment scale when these farms represent only a small proportion of the landscape are limited. The most important conclusions from the research are that: • While State and regional environmental management and regulatory agencies continue to set optimistic goals for water quality protection, this research shows that these targets are not achievable within current landscape paradigms even after broadscale BMP implementation, and that either these targets must be re-considered or that significant land use change (rather than simply improved management within current systems) must occur to meet the targets. • Catchment-scale effects of P losses at the farm scale are a complex function of P-use efficiency, landscape position and landscape footprint. Simply targetting those landuses perceived to have high nutrient loss rates does not adequately address the problem. • Catchment P management must be considered in a more inclusive and holistic way, and these assessments should be used to inform future planning policies and development plans if environmental goals as well as community expectations about the productive use of agricultural land are to be met.

Ecological issues related to ozone: agricultural issues.

PubMed

Fuhrer, Jürg; Booker, Fitzgerald

2003-06-01

Research on the effects of ozone on agricultural crops and agro-ecosystems is needed for the development of regional emission reduction strategies, to underpin practical recommendations aiming to increase the sustainability of agricultural land management in a changing environment, and to secure food supply in regions with rapidly growing populations. Major limitations in current knowledge exist in several areas: (1) Modelling of ozone transfer and specifically stomatal ozone uptake under variable environmental conditions, using robust and well-validated dynamic models that can be linked to large-scale photochemical models lack coverage. (2) Processes involved in the initial reactions of ozone with extracellular and cellular components after entry through the stomata, and identification of key chemical species and their role in detoxification require additional study. (3) Scaling the effects from the level of individual cells to the whole-plant requires, for instance, a better understanding of the effects of ozone on carbon transport within the plant. (4) Implications of long-term ozone effects on community and whole-ecosystem level processes, with an emphasis on crop quality, element cycling and carbon sequestration, and biodiversity of pastures and rangelands require renewed efforts. The UNECE Convention on Long Range Trans-boundary Air Pollution shows, for example, that policy decisions may require the use of integrated assessment models. These models depend on quantitative exposure-response information to link quantitative effects at each level of organization to an effective ozone dose (i.e., the balance between the rate of ozone uptake by the foliage and the rate of ozone detoxification). In order to be effective in a policy, or technological context, results from future research must be funnelled into an appropriate knowledge transfer scheme. This requires data synthesis, up-scaling, and spatial aggregation. At the research level, interactions must be considered between the effects of ozone and factors that are either directly manipulated by man through crop management, or indirectly changed. The latter include elevated atmospheric CO(2), particulate matter, other pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, UV-B radiation, climate and associated soil moisture conditions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carothers, Christopher D.; Meredith, Jeremy S.; Blanco, Marc

Performance modeling of extreme-scale applications on accurate representations of potential architectures is critical for designing next generation supercomputing systems because it is impractical to construct prototype systems at scale with new network hardware in order to explore designs and policies. However, these simulations often rely on static application traces that can be difficult to work with because of their size and lack of flexibility to extend or scale up without rerunning the original application. To address this problem, we have created a new technique for generating scalable, flexible workloads from real applications, we have implemented a prototype, called Durango, thatmore » combines a proven analytical performance modeling language, Aspen, with the massively parallel HPC network modeling capabilities of the CODES framework.Our models are compact, parameterized and representative of real applications with computation events. They are not resource intensive to create and are portable across simulator environments. We demonstrate the utility of Durango by simulating the LULESH application in the CODES simulation environment on several topologies and show that Durango is practical to use for simulation without loss of fidelity, as quantified by simulation metrics. During our validation of Durango's generated communication model of LULESH, we found that the original LULESH miniapp code had a latent bug where the MPI_Waitall operation was used incorrectly. This finding underscores the potential need for a tool such as Durango, beyond its benefits for flexible workload generation and modeling.Additionally, we demonstrate the efficacy of Durango's direct integration approach, which links Aspen into CODES as part of the running network simulation model. Here, Aspen generates the application-level computation timing events, which in turn drive the start of a network communication phase. Results show that Durango's performance scales well when executing both torus and dragonfly network models on up to 4K Blue Gene/Q nodes using 32K MPI ranks, Durango also avoids the overheads and complexities associated with extreme-scale trace files.« less

Resolving uncertainties in the urban air quality, climate, and vegetation nexus through citizen science, satellite imagery, and atmospheric modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenerette, D.; Wang, J.; Chandler, M.; Ripplinger, J.; Koutzoukis, S.; Ge, C.; Castro Garcia, L.; Kucera, D.; Liu, X.

2017-12-01

Large uncertainties remain in identifying the distribution of urban air quality and temperature risks across neighborhood to regional scales. Nevertheless, many cities are actively expanding vegetation with an expectation to moderate both climate and air quality risks. We address these uncertainties through an integrated analysis of satellite data, atmospheric modeling, and in-situ environmental sensor networks maintained by citizen scientists. During the summer of 2017 we deployed neighborhood-scale networks of air temperature and ozone sensors through three campaigns across urbanized southern California. During each five-week campaign we deployed six sensor nodes that included an EPA federal equivalent method ozone sensor and a suite of meteorological sensors. Each node was further embedded in a network of 100 air temperature sensors that combined a randomized design developed by the research team and a design co-created by citizen scientists. Between 20 and 60 citizen scientists were recruited for each campaign, with local partners supporting outreach and training to ensure consistent deployment and data gathering. We observed substantial variation in both temperature and ozone concentrations at scales less than 4km, whole city, and the broader southern California region. At the whole city scale the average spatial variation with our ozone sensor network just for city of Long Beach was 26% of the mean, while corresponding variation in air temperature was only 7% of the mean. These findings contrast with atmospheric model estimates of variation at the regional scale of 11% and 1%. Our results show the magnitude of fine-scale variation underestimated by current models and may also suggest scaling functions that can connect neighborhood and regional variation in both ozone and temperature risks in southern California. By engaging citizen science with high quality sensors, satellite data, and real-time forecasting, our results help identify magnitudes of climate and air quality risk variation across scales and can guide individual decisions and urban policies surrounding vegetation to moderate these risks.

A Retrospective View of a Study of Middle School Science Curriculum Materials: Implementation, Scale-up, and Sustainability in a Changing Policy Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lynch, Sharon Jo; Pyke, Curtis; Grafton, Bonnie Hansen

2012-01-01

This article provides an extended, comprehensive example of how teachers, schools, districts, and external factors (e.g., parental pressure and policy mandates) shape curriculum research in the U.S. It retrospectively examines how three different middle school curriculum units were implemented and scaled-up in a large, diverse school system. The…

Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taketa, Richard; Hong, Makiko

2010-01-01

Natural hazards pose significant threats to the public safety and economic health of many communities throughout the world. Community leaders and decision-makers continually face the challenges of planning and allocating limited resources to invest in protecting their communities against catastrophic losses from natural-hazard events. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage loss-reduction measures through mitigation often focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. The site-specific method usually provided the most accurate estimates, but was prohibitively expensive, whereas regional risk assessments were often too general to be of practical use. Policy makers lacked a systematic and quantitative method for conducting a regional-scale risk assessment of natural hazards. In response, Bernknopf and others developed the portfolio model, an intermediate-scale approach to assessing natural-hazard risks and mitigation policy alternatives. The basis for the portfolio-model approach was inspired by financial portfolio theory, which prescribes a method of optimizing return on investment while reducing risk by diversifying investments in different security types. In this context, a security type represents a unique combination of features and hazard-risk level, while financial return is defined as the reduction in losses resulting from an investment in mitigation of chosen securities. Features are selected for mitigation and are modeled like investment portfolios. Earth-science and economic data for the features are combined and processed in order to analyze each of the portfolios, which are then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in selected locations. Ultimately, the decision maker seeks to choose a portfolio representing a mitigation policy that maximizes the expected return-on-investment, while minimizing the uncertainty associated with that return-on-investment. The portfolio model, now known as the Land-Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), provided the framework for the development of the Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0 software (LUPM v1.0). The software provides a geographic information system (GIS)-based modeling tool for evaluating alternative risk-reduction mitigation strategies for specific natural-hazard events. The modeler uses information about a specific natural-hazard event and the features exposed to that event within the targeted study region to derive a measure of a given mitigation strategy`s effectiveness. Harnessing the spatial capabilities of a GIS enables the tool to provide a rich, interactive mapping environment in which users can create, analyze, visualize, and compare different

The management of health care service quality. A physician perspective

PubMed Central

Bobocea, L; Gheorghe, IR; Spiridon, St; Gheorghe, CM; Purcarea, VL

2016-01-01

Applying marketing in health care services is presently an essential element for every manager or policy maker. In order to be successful, a health care organization has to identify an accurate measurement scale for defining service quality due to competitive pressure and cost values. The most widely employed scale in the services sector is SERVQUAL scale. In spite of being successfully adopted in fields such as brokerage and banking, experts concluded that the SERVQUAL scale should be modified depending on the specific context. Moreover, the SERVQUAL scale focused on the consumer’s perspective regarding service quality. While service quality was measured with the help of SERVQUAL scale, other experts identified a structure-process-outcome design, which, they thought, would be more suitable for health care services. This approach highlights a different perspective on investigating the service quality, namely, the physician’s perspective. Further, we believe that the Seven Prong Model for Improving Service Quality has been adopted in order to effectively measure the health care service in a Romanian context from a physician’s perspective. PMID:27453745

Establishing an integrated human milk banking approach to strengthen newborn care

PubMed Central

DeMarchis, A; Israel-Ballard, K; Mansen, Kimberly Amundson; Engmann, C

2017-01-01

The provision of donor human milk can significantly reduce morbidity and mortality among vulnerable infants and is recommended by the World Health Organization as the next best option when a mother's own milk is unavailable. Regulated human milk banks can meet this need, however, scale-up has been hindered by the absence of an appropriate model for resource-limited settings and a lack of policy support for human milk banks and for the operational procedures supporting them. To reduce infant mortality, human milk banking systems need to be scaled up and integrated with other components of newborn care. This article draws on current guidelines and best practices from human milk banks to offer a compilation of universal requirements that provide a foundation for an integrated model of newborn care that is appropriate for low- and high-resource settings alike. PMID:27831549

Evaluation of the Township Proper Carrying Capacity over Qinghai-Tibet plateau by CASA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chengyong; Cao, Guangchao; Xue, Huaju; Jiang, Gang; Wang, Qi; Yuan, Jie; Chen, Kelong

2018-01-01

The existing study of proper carrying capacity (PCC) has mostly focused on province or county administrative units, which can only macroscopically master the quantitative characteristics of PCC, but could not effectively take some animal husbandry management measures that are pertinent and operational. At town-scale, this paper used CASA model to estimate the PCC in Mongolian Autonomous County of Henan, Qinghai province, China,with serious grassland degeneration that mainly caused by overgrazing. The results showed that the PCC throughout the County was 950,417 sheep unit. For the township, the PCC of Saierlong and Duosong were the largest (247,100 sheep unit) and the smallest (82,016 sheep unit) respectively. This study will provide reference data for developing sustainable development of town-scale pasture policies and also will help to evaluate the health status of the alpine grassland ecosystem on Qinghai-Tibet plateau.

Sustainable and Smart City Planning Using Spatial Data in Wallonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenne, N.; Beaumont, B.; Hallot, E.; Wolff, E.; Poelmans, L.; Baltus, C.

2016-09-01

Simulating population distribution and land use changes in space and time offer opportunities for smart city planning. It provides a holistic and dynamic vision of fast changing urban environment to policy makers. Impacts, such as environmental and health risks or mobility issues, of policies can be assessed and adapted consequently. In this paper, we suppose that "Smart" city developments should be sustainable, dynamic and participative. This paper addresses these three smart objectives in the context of urban risk assessment in Wallonia, Belgium. The sustainable, dynamic and participative solution includes (i) land cover and land use mapping using remote sensing and GIS, (ii) population density mapping using dasymetric mapping, (iii) predictive modelling of land use changes and population dynamics and (iv) risk assessment. The comprehensive and long-term vision of the territory should help to draw sustainable spatial planning policies, to adapt remote sensing acquisition, to update GIS data and to refine risk assessment from regional to city scale.

Optimal Navigation of Self-Propelled Colloids in Microstructured Mazes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yuguang; Bevan, Michael

Controlling navigation of self-propelled microscopic `robots' subject to random Brownian motion in complex microstructured environments (e.g., porous media, tumor vasculature) is important to many emerging applications (e.g., enhanced oil recovery, drug delivery). In this work, we design an optimal feedback policy to navigate an active self-propelled colloidal rod in complex mazes with various obstacle types. Actuation of the rods is modelled based on a light-controlled osmotic flow mechanism, which produces different propulsion velocities along the rod's long axis. Actuator-parameterized Langevin equations, with soft rod-obstacle repulsive interactions, are developed to describe the system dynamics. A Markov decision process (MDP) framework is used for optimal policy calculations with design goals of colloidal rods reaching target end points in minimum time. Simulations show that optimal MDP-based policies are able to control rod trajectories to reach target regions order-of-magnitudes faster than uncontrolled rods, which diverges as maze complexity increases. An efficient multi-graph based implementation for MDP is also presented, which scales linearly with the maze dimension.

School Leaders' and Teachers' Work with National Test Results: Lost in Translation?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gunnulfsen, Ann Elisabeth

2017-01-01

Studies have shown that school leaders are important in work with large-scale policy reforms in schools. However, the issue of how school leaders and teachers discuss and enact policy is under-studied. This article explores the discursive processes in school leaders' and teachers' policy enactment as they construct responses to policy. The data…

Teacher Layoffs, Teacher Quality and Student Achievement: The Implementation and Consequences of a Discretionary Reduction-in-Force Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kraft, Matthew A.

2013-01-01

Research has shown that "last hired, first fired" policies maximize the number of teachers subject to reductions in force by eliminating those teachers that are lowest on the pay scale first. Until now, advocates of effectiveness-based reduction-in-force (RIF) policies could only point to simulated policy exercises as evidence of the…

A multi-scale modelling procedure to quantify hydrological impacts of upland land management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.; Jackson, B.; Bulygina, N.; Ballard, C.; McIntyre, N.; Marshall, M.; Frogbrook, Z.; Solloway, I.; Reynolds, B.

2008-12-01

Recent UK floods have focused attention on the effects of agricultural intensification on flood risk. However, quantification of these effects raises important methodological issues. Catchment-scale data have proved inadequate to support analysis of impacts of land management change, due to climate variability, uncertainty in input and output data, spatial heterogeneity in land use and lack of data to quantify historical changes in management practices. Manipulation experiments to quantify the impacts of land management change have necessarily been limited and small scale, and in the UK mainly focused on the lowlands and arable agriculture. There is a need to develop methods to extrapolate from small scale observations to predict catchment-scale response, and to quantify impacts for upland areas. With assistance from a cooperative of Welsh farmers, a multi-scale experimental programme has been established at Pontbren, in mid-Wales, an area of intensive sheep production. The data have been used to support development of a multi-scale modelling methodology to assess impacts of agricultural intensification and the potential for mitigation of flood risk through land use management. Data are available from replicated experimental plots under different land management treatments, from instrumented field and hillslope sites, including tree shelter belts, and from first and second order catchments. Measurements include climate variables, soil water states and hydraulic properties at multiple depths and locations, tree interception, overland flow and drainflow, groundwater levels, and streamflow from multiple locations. Fine resolution physics-based models have been developed to represent soil and runoff processes, conditioned using experimental data. The detailed models are used to calibrate simpler 'meta- models' to represent individual hydrological elements, which are then combined in a semi-distributed catchment-scale model. The methodology is illustrated using field and catchment-scale simulations to demonstrate the the response of improved and unimproved grassland, and the potential effects of land management interventions, including farm ponds, tree shelter belts and buffer strips. It is concluded that the methodology developed has the potential to represent and quantify catchment-scale effects of upland management; continuing research is extending the work to a wider range of upland environments and land use types, with the aim of providing generic simulation tools that can be used to provide strategic policy guidance.

A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

1998-01-01

Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

The Scaling of Water Governance Tasks: A Comparative Federal Analysis of the European Union and Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benson, David; Jordan, Andrew

2010-07-01

Conflicts over how to “scale” policy-making tasks have characterized environmental governance since time immemorial. They are particularly evident in the area of water policy and raise important questions over the democratic legitimacy, economic efficiency and effectiveness of allocating (or “scaling”) tasks to some administrative levels as opposed to others. This article adopts a comparative federalism perspective to assess the “optimality” of scaling—either upward or downward—in one issue area, namely coastal recreational water quality. It does so by comparing the scaling of recreational water quality tasks in the European Union (EU) and Australia. It reveals that the two systems have adopted rather different approaches to scaling and that this difference can partly be accounted for in federal theoretical terms. However, a much greater awareness of the inescapably political nature of scaling processes is nonetheless required. Finally, some words of caution are offered with regard to transferring policy lessons between these two jurisdictions.

Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control

PubMed Central

Tildesley, Michael J.; Smith, Gary; Keeling, Matt J.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we simulate outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, USA – after the introduction of a state-wide movement ban – as they might unfold in the presence of mitigation strategies. We have adapted a model previously used to investigate FMD control policies in the UK to examine the potential for disease spread given an infection seeded in each county in Pennsylvania. The results are highly dependent upon the county of introduction and the spatial scale of transmission. Should the transmission kernel be identical to that for the UK, the epidemic impact is limited to fewer than 20 premises, regardless of the county of introduction. However, for wider kernels where infection can spread further, outbreaks seeded in or near the county with highest density of premises and animals result in large epidemics (>150 premises). Ring culling and vaccination reduce epidemic size, with the optimal radius of the rings being dependent upon the county of introduction. Should the kernel width exceed a given county-dependent threshold, ring culling is unable to control the epidemic. We find that a vaccinate-to-live policy is generally preferred to ring culling (in terms of reducing the overall number of premises culled), indicating that well-targeted control can dramatically reduce the risk of large scale outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease occurring in Pennsylvania. PMID:22169708

Co-production of science for regional integrated assessment and management of climate change impacts: The case study of Aspen, CO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnott, J. C.; Katzenberger, J.

2015-12-01

The impacts of global climate change to regional scales are complex and cut across sectorial and jurisdictional boundaries, and therefore, a unique enterprise of collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders for development of adequate response strategies is required. Such collaboration has been exhibited between stakeholders, researchers, and a boundary organization—the Aspen Global Change Institute—since 2005 in assessing impacts and crafting policies in response with regard to climate change impacts in the mountain watershed surrounding Aspen, CO. A series of structured stakeholder interviews and town hall sessions, impact assessment reports, and intensive collaboration between various information providers and user groups has set the stage for development of both mitigation of and adaptation to climate change impacts. The most recent example of this has included the use of global scale climate model output to inform the development of resiliency strategies in response to extreme precipitation projections. The use of this kind of resource has been considered in a variety of decision-making contexts and has included the development of region- and decision-relevant qualitative scenarios that make use of quantitative model-based information. Results from this line of work that include feedback from actual users', a boundary organization, and researchers' perspectives will be reported along with examples of policy and implementation results.

The Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP): a national scale natural resources and conservation needs assessment and decision support tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, M.-V. V.; Norfleet, M. L.; Atwood, J. D.; Behrman, K. D.; Kiniry, J. R.; Arnold, J. G.; White, M. J.; Williams, J.

2015-07-01

The Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) was initiated to quantify the impacts of agricultural conservation practices at the watershed, regional, and national scales across the United States. Representative cropland acres in all major U.S. watersheds were surveyed in 2003-2006 as part of the seminal CEAP Cropland National Assessment. Two process-based models, the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender(APEX) and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), were applied to the survey data to provide a quantitative assessment of current conservation practice impacts, establish a benchmark against which future conservation trends and efforts could be measured, and identify outstanding conservation concerns. The flexibility of these models and the unprecedented amount of data on current conservation practices across the country enabled Cropland CEAP to meet its Congressional mandate of quantifying the value of current conservation practices. It also enabled scientifically grounded exploration of a variety of conservation scenarios, empowering CEAP to not only inform on past successes and additional needs, but to also provide a decision support tool to help guide future policy development and conservation practice decision making. The CEAP effort will repeat the national survey in 2015-2016, enabling CEAP to provide analyses of emergent conservation trends, outstanding needs, and potential costs and benefits of pursuing various treatment scenarios for all agricultural watersheds across the United States.

Operationalizing safe operating space for regional social-ecological systems.

PubMed

Hossain, Md Sarwar; Dearing, John A; Eigenbrod, Felix; Johnson, Fiifi Amoako

2017-04-15

This study makes a first attempt to operationalize the safe operating space concept at a regional scale by considering the complex dynamics (e.g. non-linearity, feedbacks, and interactions) within a systems dynamic model (SD). We employ the model to explore eight 'what if' scenarios based on well-known challenges (e.g. climate change) and current policy debates (e.g. subsidy withdrawal). The findings show that the social-ecological system in the Bangladesh delta may move beyond a safe operating space when a withdrawal of a 50% subsidy for agriculture is combined with the effects of a 2°C temperature increase and sea level rise. Further reductions in upstream river discharge in the Ganges would push the system towards a dangerous zone once a 3.5°C temperature increase was reached. The social-ecological system in Bangladesh delta may be operated within a safe space by: 1) managing feedback (e.g. by reducing production costs) and the slow biophysical variables (e.g. temperature, rainfall) to increase the long-term resilience, 2) negotiating for transboundary water resources, and 3) revising global policies (e.g. withdrawal of subsidy) that negatively impact at regional scales. This study demonstrates how the concepts of tipping points, limits to adaptations, and boundaries for sustainable development may be defined in real world social-ecological systems. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Efficiency of quarantine and self-protection processes in epidemic spreading control on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esquivel-Gómez, Jose de Jesus; Barajas-Ramírez, Juan Gonzalo

2018-01-01

One of the most effective mechanisms to contain the spread of an infectious disease through a population is the implementation of quarantine policies. However, its efficiency is affected by different aspects, for example, the structure of the underlining social network where highly connected individuals are more likely to become infected; therefore, the speed of the transmission of the decease is directly determined by the degree distribution of the network. Another aspect that influences the effectiveness of the quarantine is the self-protection processes of the individuals in the population, that is, they try to avoid contact with potentially infected individuals. In this paper, we investigate the efficiency of quarantine and self-protection processes in preventing the spreading of infectious diseases over complex networks with a power-law degree distribution [ P ( k ) ˜ k - ν ] for different ν values. We propose two alternative scale-free models that result in power-law degree distributions above and below the exponent ν = 3 associated with the conventional Barabási-Albert model. Our results show that the exponent ν determines the effectiveness of these policies in controlling the spreading process. More precisely, we show that for the ν exponent below three, the quarantine mechanism loses effectiveness. However, the efficiency is improved if the quarantine is jointly implemented with a self-protection process driving the number of infected individuals significantly lower.

Scaling up HIV self-testing in sub-Saharan Africa: a review of technology, policy and evidence

PubMed Central

Indravudh, Pitchaya P.; Choko, Augustine T.; Corbett, Elizabeth L.

2018-01-01

Purpose of review HIV self-testing (HIVST) can provide complementary coverage to existing HIV testing services and improve knowledge of status among HIV-infected individuals. This review summarizes the current technology, policy and evidence landscape in sub-Saharan Africa and priorities within a rapidly evolving field. Recent findings HIVST is moving towards scaled implementation, with the release of WHO guidelines, WHO prequalification of the first HIVST product, price reductions of HIVST products and a growing product pipeline. Multicountry evidence from southern and eastern Africa confirms high feasibility, acceptability and accuracy across many delivery models and populations, with minimal harms. Evidence on the effectiveness of HIVST on increased testing coverage is strong, while evidence on demand generation for follow-on HIV prevention and treatment services and cost-effective delivery is emerging. Despite these developments, HIVST delivery remains limited outside of pilot implementation. Summary Important technology gaps include increasing availability of more sensitive HIVST products in low and middle-income countries. Regulatory and postmarket surveillance systems for HIVST also require further development. Randomized trials evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness under multiple distribution models, including unrestricted delivery and with a focus on linkage to HIV prevention and treatment, remain priorities. Diversification of studies from west and central Africa and around blood-based products should be addressed. PMID:29232277

A fuzzy logic approach to modeling the underground economy in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang; Wang, David Han-Min; Chen, Su-Jane

2006-04-01

The size of the ‘underground economy’ (UE) is valuable information in the formulation of macroeconomic and fiscal policy. This study applies fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic to model Taiwan's UE over the period from 1960 to 2003. Two major factors affecting the size of the UE, the effective tax rate and the degree of government regulation, are used. The size of Taiwan's UE is scaled and compared with those of other models. Although our approach yields different estimates, similar patterns and leading are exhibited throughout the period. The advantage of applying fuzzy logic is twofold. First, it can avoid the complex calculations in conventional econometric models. Second, fuzzy rules with linguistic terms are easy for human to understand.

Combined heat and power systems: economic and policy barriers to growth

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems can provide a range of benefits to users with regards to efficiency, reliability, costs and environmental impact. Furthermore, increasing the amount of electricity generated by CHP systems in the United States has been identified as having significant potential for impressive economic and environmental outcomes on a national scale. Given the benefits from increasing the adoption of CHP technologies, there is value in improving our understanding of how desired increases in CHP adoption can be best achieved. These obstacles are currently understood to stem from regulatory as well as economic and technological barriers. In our research, we answer the following questions: Given the current policy and economic environment facing the CHP industry, what changes need to take place in this space in order for CHP systems to be competitive in the energy market? Methods We focus our analysis primarily on Combined Heat and Power Systems that use natural gas turbines. Our analysis takes a two-pronged approach. We first conduct a statistical analysis of the impact of state policies on increases in electricity generated from CHP system. Second, we conduct a Cost-Benefit analysis to determine in which circumstances funding incentives are necessary to make CHP technologies cost-competitive. Results Our policy analysis shows that regulatory improvements do not explain the growth in adoption of CHP technologies but hold the potential to encourage increases in electricity generated from CHP system in small-scale applications. Our Cost-Benefit analysis shows that CHP systems are only cost competitive in large-scale applications and that funding incentives would be necessary to make CHP technology cost-competitive in small-scale applications. Conclusion From the synthesis of these analyses we conclude that because large-scale applications of natural gas turbines are already cost-competitive, policy initiatives aimed at a CHP market dominated primarily by large-scale (and therefore already cost-competitive) systems have not been effectively directed. Our recommendation is that for CHP technologies using natural gas turbines, policy focuses should be on increasing CHP growth in small-scale systems. This result can be best achieved through redirection of state and federal incentives, research and development, adoption of smart grid technology, and outreach and education. PMID:22540988

The Effect of Environmental Regulation on Employment in Resource-Based Areas of China-An Empirical Research Based on the Mediating Effect Model.

PubMed

Cao, Wenbin; Wang, Hui; Ying, Huihui

2017-12-19

While environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious, many countries are adopting policies to control pollution. At the same time, the environmental regulation will inevitably affect economic and social development, especially employment growth. The environmental regulation will not only affect the scale of employment directly, but it will also have indirect effects by stimulating upgrades in the industrial structure and in technological innovation. This paper examines the impact of environmental regulation on employment, using a mediating model based on the data from five typical resource-based provinces in China from 2000 to 2015. The estimation is performed based on the system GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) estimator. The results show that the implementation of environmental regulation in resource-based areas has both a direct effect and a mediating effect on employment. These findings provide policy implications for these resource-based areas to promote the coordinating development between the environment and employment.

The Effect of Environmental Regulation on Employment in Resource-Based Areas of China—An Empirical Research Based on the Mediating Effect Model

PubMed Central

Cao, Wenbin; Wang, Hui; Ying, Huihui

2017-01-01

While environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious, many countries are adopting policies to control pollution. At the same time, the environmental regulation will inevitably affect economic and social development, especially employment growth. The environmental regulation will not only affect the scale of employment directly, but it will also have indirect effects by stimulating upgrades in the industrial structure and in technological innovation. This paper examines the impact of environmental regulation on employment, using a mediating model based on the data from five typical resource-based provinces in China from 2000 to 2015. The estimation is performed based on the system GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) estimator. The results show that the implementation of environmental regulation in resource-based areas has both a direct effect and a mediating effect on employment. These findings provide policy implications for these resource-based areas to promote the coordinating development between the environment and employment. PMID:29257068

Modelling tools to support the harmonization of Water Framework Directive and Common Agricultural Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tediosi, A.; Bulgheroni, C.; Sali, G.; Facchi, A.; Gandolfi, C.

2009-04-01

After a few years from the delivery of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) the need to link agriculture and WFD has emerged as one of the highest priorities; therefore, it is important to discuss on how the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) can contribute to the achievements of the WFD objectives. The recent CAP reform - known as Mid Term Review (MTR) or Fischler Reform - has increased the opportunities, offering to farmers increased support to address some environmental issues. The central novelty coming from the MTR is the introduction of a farm single payment which aims to the Decoupling of EU Agricultural Support from production. Other MTR important topics deal with the Modulation of the payments, the Cross-Compliance and the strengthening of the Rural Development policy. All these new elements will affect the farmers' behaviour, steering their productive choices for the future, which, in turn, will have consequences on the water demand for irrigation. Indeed, from the water quantity viewpoint, agriculture is a large consumer and improving water use efficiency is one of the main issues at stake, following the increasing impacts of water scarcity and droughts across Europe in a context of climate change. According to a recent survey of the European Commission the saving potential in the agricultural sector is 43% of present abstraction and 95% of it is concentrated in southern europe. Many models have been developed to forecast the farmers' behaviour as a consequence of agricultural policies, both at sector and regional level; all of them are founded on Mathematical Programming techniques and many of them use the Positive approach, which better fits the territorial dimension. A large body of literature also exists focusing on the assessment of irrigation water requirements. The examples of conjunctive modelling of the two aspects are however much more limited. The work presented has got some innovative aspects: not only does it couple an economical model and a spatially distributed hydrologic model, but also embodies the two models in a wider procedure aiming at supporting the process of water resources planning at basin scale, based on the IWRM (Integrated Water Resources Management) paradigm. In practice, the economical model defines different land use scenarios deriving from the effects of the CAP on the farmers' productive choices; the hydrological model assesses the crop water requirements and determines the consequent variations of irrigation water demand at the basin scale; finally, the modified pattern of irrigation demand of each land use scenario is incorporated into a multi-objective optimisation procedure, which generates a set of efficient water management policies. Stakeholders involvement is a central component in all the phases of the procedure, including setting the optimization objectives and selecting the performance indicators for the different uses of the water resources within the basin. The presentation will focus on the first two phases of the process, describing the characteristics of the economical and hydrological models; moreover it will illustrate the results of their application to a pilot study basin in Northern Italy, the 6,500 sqaure kilometers wide Adda river basin, which includes the regulated Como lake and is characterized by a broad range of conflicting water related issues: irrigation of a 3,500 square kilometers wide district, navigation and tourism, environment protection, flood protection, hydropower production.

A Dynamic Evaluation Of A Model And An Estimate Of The Air Quality And Regional Climate Impacts Of Enhanced Solar Power Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millstein, D.; Brown, N. J.; Zhai, P.; Menon, S.

2012-12-01

We use the WRF/Chem model (Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry) and pollutant emissions based on the EPA National Emission Inventories from 2005 and 2008 to model regional climate and air quality over the continental United States. Additionally, 2030 emission scenarios are developed to investigate the effects of future enhancements to solar power generation. Modeling covered 6 summer and 6 winter weeks each year. We model feedback between aerosols and meteorology and thus capture direct and indirect aerosol effects. The grid resolution is 25 km and includes no nesting. Between 2005 and 2008 significant emission reductions were reported in the National Emission Inventory. The 2008 weekday emissions over the continental U.S. of SO2 and NO were reduced from 2005 values by 28% and 16%, respectively. Emission reductions of this magnitude are similar in scale to the potential emission reductions from various energy policy initiatives. By evaluating modeled and observed air quality changes from 2005 to 2008, we analyze how well the model represents the effects of historical emission changes. We also gain insight into how well the model might predict the effects of future emission changes. In addition to direct comparisons of model outputs to ground and satellite observations, we compare observed differences between 2005 and 2008 to corresponding modeled differences. Modeling was extended to future scenarios (2030) to simulate air quality and regional climate effects of large-scale adoption of solar power. The 2030-year was selected to allow time for development of solar generation infrastructure. The 2030 emission scenario was scaled, with separate factors for different economic sectors, from the 2008 National Emissions Inventory. The changes to emissions caused by the introduction of large-scale solar power (here assumed to be 10% of total energy generation) are based on results from a parallel project that used an electricity grid model applied over multiple regions across the country. The regional climate and air quality effects of future large-scale solar power adoption are analyzed in the context of uncertainty quantified by the dynamic evaluation of the historical (2005 and 2008) WRF/Chem simulations.

Multidimensional scaling analysis of financial time series based on modified cross-sample entropy methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Jiayi; Shang, Pengjian; Xiong, Hui

2018-06-01

Stocks, as the concrete manifestation of financial time series with plenty of potential information, are often used in the study of financial time series. In this paper, we utilize the stock data to recognize their patterns through out the dissimilarity matrix based on modified cross-sample entropy, then three-dimensional perceptual maps of the results are provided through multidimensional scaling method. Two modified multidimensional scaling methods are proposed in this paper, that is, multidimensional scaling based on Kronecker-delta cross-sample entropy (MDS-KCSE) and multidimensional scaling based on permutation cross-sample entropy (MDS-PCSE). These two methods use Kronecker-delta based cross-sample entropy and permutation based cross-sample entropy to replace the distance or dissimilarity measurement in classical multidimensional scaling (MDS). Multidimensional scaling based on Chebyshev distance (MDSC) is employed to provide a reference for comparisons. Our analysis reveals a clear clustering both in synthetic data and 18 indices from diverse stock markets. It implies that time series generated by the same model are easier to have similar irregularity than others, and the difference in the stock index, which is caused by the country or region and the different financial policies, can reflect the irregularity in the data. In the synthetic data experiments, not only the time series generated by different models can be distinguished, the one generated under different parameters of the same model can also be detected. In the financial data experiment, the stock indices are clearly divided into five groups. Through analysis, we find that they correspond to five regions, respectively, that is, Europe, North America, South America, Asian-Pacific (with the exception of mainland China), mainland China and Russia. The results also demonstrate that MDS-KCSE and MDS-PCSE provide more effective divisions in experiments than MDSC.

Evolution of Controllability in Interbank Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delpini, Danilo; Battiston, Stefano; Riccaboni, Massimo; Gabbi, Giampaolo; Pammolli, Fabio; Caldarelli, Guido

2013-04-01

The Statistical Physics of Complex Networks has recently provided new theoretical tools for policy makers. Here we extend the notion of network controllability to detect the financial institutions, i.e. the drivers, that are most crucial to the functioning of an interbank market. The system we investigate is a paradigmatic case study for complex networks since it undergoes dramatic structural changes over time and links among nodes can be observed at several time scales. We find a scale-free decay of the fraction of drivers with increasing time resolution, implying that policies have to be adjusted to the time scales in order to be effective. Moreover, drivers are often not the most highly connected ``hub'' institutions, nor the largest lenders, contrary to the results of other studies. Our findings contribute quantitative indicators which can support regulators in developing more effective supervision and intervention policies.

Focusing Events and Constrains on Policy Addressing Long-Term Climate Change Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donovan, K.

2014-12-01

When policy makers are aware of immediate and long-term risks to communities, what do they do to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change? This paper addresses that question in two ways. First, as an organizing framework it presents an overview of the empirical evidence on focusing events. Focusing events are defined as sudden, rare events that reveal harm or the potential for future harm that the general public and policy makers become aware of simultaneously. These large-scale events are typically natural and disasters, crisis, or technological accidents. This paper considers the empirical evidence of the relationship between focusing events, the harm revealed by the event and policy change aimed at reducing future risk of harm. Second, this paper reviews the case of flood mitigation policy in the United States from 1968 to 2008. It considers the ways in which policy makers have and have not integrated future flood risks into mitigation policy and planning, particularly after large-scale floods. It analyzes the political, intergovernmental, demographic and geographic factors that have promoted and constrained long-term flood mitigation policy. This paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning and implications of potential focusing events and constrains on policy for long-term climate change concerns.

Hierarchical Distributed-Lag Models: Exploring Varying Geographic Scale and Magnitude in Associations Between the Built Environment and Health

PubMed Central

Baek, Jonggyu; Sanchez-Vaznaugh, Emma V.; Sánchez, Brisa N.

2016-01-01

It is well known that associations between features of the built environment and health depend on the geographic scale used to construct environmental attributes. In the built environment literature, it has long been argued that geographic scales may vary across study locations. However, this hypothesized variation has not been systematically examined due to a lack of available statistical methods. We propose a hierarchical distributed-lag model (HDLM) for estimating the underlying overall shape of food environment–health associations as a function of distance from locations of interest. This method enables indirect assessment of relevant geographic scales and captures area-level heterogeneity in the magnitudes of associations, along with relevant distances within areas. The proposed model was used to systematically examine area-level variation in the association between availability of convenience stores around schools and children's weights. For this case study, body mass index (weight kg)/height (m)2) z scores (BMIz) for 7th grade children collected via California's 2001–2009 FitnessGram testing program were linked to a commercial database that contained locations of food outlets statewide. Findings suggested that convenience store availability may influence BMIz only in some places and at varying distances from schools. Future research should examine localized environmental or policy differences that may explain the heterogeneity in convenience store–BMIz associations. PMID:26888753

One way coupling of CMAQ and a road source dispersion model for fine scale air pollution predictions

PubMed Central

Beevers, Sean D.; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Williams, Martin L.; Carslaw, David C.

2012-01-01

In this paper we have coupled the CMAQ and ADMS air quality models to predict hourly concentrations of NOX, NO2 and O3 for London at a spatial scale of 20 m × 20 m. Model evaluation has demonstrated reasonable agreement with measurements from 80 monitoring sites in London. For NO2 the model evaluation statistics gave 73% of the hourly concentrations within a factor of two of observations, a mean bias of −4.7 ppb and normalised mean bias of −0.17, a RMSE value of 17.7 and an r value of 0.58. The equivalent results for O3 were 61% (FAC2), 2.8 ppb (MB), 0.15 (NMB), 12.1 (RMSE) and 0.64 (r). Analysis of the errors in the model predictions by hour of the week showed the need for improvements in predicting the magnitude of road transport related NOX emissions as well as the hourly emissions scaling in the model. These findings are consistent with recent evidence of UK road transport NOX emissions, reported elsewhere. The predictions of wind speed using the WRF model also influenced the model results and contributed to the daytime over prediction of NOX concentrations at the central London background site at Kensington and Chelsea. An investigation of the use of a simple NO–NO2–O3 chemistry scheme showed good performance close to road sources, and this is also consistent with previous studies. The coupling of the two models raises an issue of emissions double counting. Here, we have put forward a pragmatic solution to this problem with the result that a median double counting error of 0.42% exists across 39 roadside sites in London. Finally, whilst the model can be improved, the current results show promise and demonstrate that the use of a combination of regional scale and local scale models can provide a practical modelling tool for policy development at intergovernmental, national and local authority level, as well as for use in epidemiological studies. PMID:23471172

Literacy Assessment in the Service of Literacy Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Venezky, Richard L.

Literacy policy has often developed independently of other social and employment programs. As a consequence, literacy tends to become an end unto itself, and assessment is directed more toward academic, archival ends than toward policy evaluation. Many justifications given for large-scale literacy programs are not based upon empirical data.…

Transversing the Vertical Case Study: A Methodological Approach to Studies of Educational Policy as Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartlett, Lesley; Vavrus, Frances

2014-01-01

How can scholars trace the global production and circulation of educational policies? The vertical case study incorporates three elements: "vertical" attention across micro-, meso-, and macro-levels, or scales; a "horizontal" comparison of how policies unfold in distinct locations; and a "transversal," processual…

Assumptions about Ecological Scale and Nature Knowing Best Hiding in Environmental Decisions

Treesearch

R. Bruce Hull; David P. Robertson; David Richert; Erin Seekamp; Gregory J. Buhyoff

2002-01-01

Assumptions about nature are embedded in people's preferences for environmental policy and management. The people we interviewed justified preservationist policies using four assumptions about nature knowing best: nature is balanced, evolution is progressive, technology is suspect, and the Creation is perfect. They justified interventionist policies using three...

Watershed Dynamics, with focus on connectivity index and management of water related impacts on road infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalantari, Z.

2015-12-01

In Sweden, spatially explicit approaches have been applied in various disciplines such as landslide modelling based on soil type data and flood risk modelling for large rivers. Regarding flood mapping, most previous studies have focused on complex hydrological modelling on a small scale whereas just a few studies have used a robust GIS-based approach integrating most physical catchment descriptor (PCD) aspects on a larger scale. This study was built on a conceptual framework for looking at SedInConnect model, topography, land use, soil data and other PCDs and climate change in an integrated way to pave the way for more integrated policy making. The aim of the present study was to develop methodology for predicting the spatial probability of flooding on a general large scale. This framework can provide a region with an effective tool to inform a broad range of watershed planning activities within a region. Regional planners, decision-makers, etc. can utilize this tool to identify the most vulnerable points in a watershed and along roads to plan for interventions and actions to alter impacts of high flows and other extreme weather events on roads construction. The application of the model over a large scale can give a realistic spatial characterization of sediment connectivity for the optimal management of debris flow to road structures. The ability of the model to capture flooding probability was determined for different watersheds in central Sweden. Using data from this initial investigation, a method to subtract spatial data for multiple catchments and to produce soft data for statistical analysis was developed. It allowed flood probability to be predicted from spatially sparse data without compromising the significant hydrological features on the landscape. This in turn allowed objective quantification of the probability of floods at the field scale for future model development and watershed management.

Assessing Land Management Change Effects on Forest Carbon and Emissions Under Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, B. E.

2014-12-01

There has been limited focus on fine-scale land management change effects on forest carbon under future environmental conditions (climate, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric CO2). Forest management decisions are often made at the landscape to regional levels before analyses have been conducted to determine the potential outcomes and effectiveness of such actions. Scientists need to evaluate plausible land management actions in a timely manner to help shape policy and strategic land management. Issues of interest include species-level adaptation to climate, resilience and vulnerability to mortality within forested landscapes and regions. Efforts are underway to improve land system model simulation of future mortality related to climate, and to develop and evaluate plausible land management options that could help mitigate or avoid future die-offs. Vulnerability to drought-related mortality varies among species and with tree size or age. Predictors of species ability to survive in specific environments are still not resolved. A challenge is limited observations for fine-scale (e.g. 4 km2) modeling, particularly physiological parameters. Uncertainties are primarily associated with future land management and policy decisions. They include the interface with economic factors and with other ecosystem services (biodiversity, water availability, wildlife habitat). The outcomes of future management scenarios should be compared with business-as-usual management under the same environmental conditions to determine the effects of management changes on forest carbon and net emissions to the atmosphere. For example, in the western U.S., land system modeling and life cycle assessment of several management options to reduce impacts of fire reduced long-term forest carbon gain and increased carbon emissions compared with business-as-usual management under future environmental conditions. The enhanced net carbon uptake with climate and reduced fire emissions after thinning did not compensate for the increased wood removals over 90 years, leading to reduced net biome production. Analysis of land management change scenarios at fine scales is needed, and should consider other ecological values in addition to carbon.

Theoretical foundations for environmental Kuznets curve analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lantz, Van

This thesis provides a dynamic theory for analyzing the paths of aggregate output and pollution in a country over time. An infinite horizon, competitive growth-pollution model is explored in order to determine the role that economic scale, production techniques, and pollution regulations play in explaining the inverted U-shaped relationship between output and some forms of pollution (otherwise known as the Environmental Kuznets Curve, or EKC). Results indicate that the output-pollution relationship may follow a strictly increasing, strictly decreasing (but bounded), inverted U-shaped, or some combination of curves. While the 'scale' effect may cause output and pollution to exhibit a monotonic relationship, 'technique' and 'regulation' effects may ultimately cause a de-linking of these two variables. Pollution-minimizing energy regulation policies are also investigated within this framework. It is found that the EKC may be 'flattened' or even eliminated moving from a poorly-regulated economy to one that minimizes pollution. The model is calibrated to the US economy for output (gross national product, GNP) and two pollutants (sulfur dioxide, SO2, and carbon dioxide, CO2) over the period 1900 to 1990. Results indicate that the model replicates the observations quite well. The predominance of 'scale' effects cause aggregate SO2 and CO2 levels to increase with GNP in the early stages of development. Then, in the case of SO 2, 'technique' and 'regulation' effects may be the cause of falling SO2 levels with continued economic growth (establishing the EKC). CO2 continues to monotonically increase as output levels increase over time. The positive relationship may be due to the lack of regulations on this pollutant. If stricter regulation policies were instituted in the two case studies, an improved allocation of resources may result. While GNP may be 2.596 to 20% lower than what has been realized in the US economy (depending on the pollution variable analyzed), individual welfare may increase from lower pollution levels.

Global economic consequences of deploying bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muratori, Matteo; Calvin, Katherine; Wise, Marshall; Kyle, Page; Edmonds, Jae

2016-09-01

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered a potential source of net negative carbon emissions and, if deployed at sufficient scale, could help reduce carbon dioxide emissions and concentrations. However, the viability and economic consequences of large-scale BECCS deployment are not fully understood. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) integrated assessment model to explore the potential global and regional economic impacts of BECCS. As a negative-emissions technology, BECCS would entail a net subsidy in a policy environment in which carbon emissions are taxed. We show that by mid-century, in a world committed to limiting climate change to 2 °C, carbon tax revenues have peaked and are rapidly approaching the point where climate mitigation is a net burden on general tax revenues. Assuming that the required policy instruments are available to support BECCS deployment, we consider its effects on global trade patterns of fossil fuels, biomass, and agricultural products. We find that in a world committed to limiting climate change to 2 °C, the absence of CCS harms fossil-fuel exporting regions, while the presence of CCS, and BECCS in particular, allows greater continued use and export of fossil fuels. We also explore the relationship between carbon prices, food-crop prices and use of BECCS. We show that the carbon price and biomass and food crop prices are directly related. We also show that BECCS reduces the upward pressure on food crop prices by lowering carbon prices and lowering the total biomass demand in climate change mitigation scenarios. All of this notwithstanding, many challenges, both technical and institutional, remain to be addressed before BECCS can be deployed at scale.

The topology and dynamics of complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dezso, Zoltan

We start with a brief introduction about the topological properties of real networks. Most real networks are scale-free, being characterized by a power-law degree distribution. The scale-free nature of real networks leads to unexpected properties such as the vanishing epidemic threshold. Traditional methods aiming to reduce the spreading rate of viruses cannot succeed on eradicating the epidemic on a scale-free network. We demonstrate that policies that discriminate between the nodes, curing mostly the highly connected nodes, can restore a finite epidemic threshold and potentially eradicate the virus. We find that the more biased a policy is towards the hubs, the more chance it has to bring the epidemic threshold above the virus' spreading rate. We continue by studying a large Web portal as a model system for a rapidly evolving network. We find that the visitation pattern of a news document decays as a power law, in contrast with the exponential prediction provided by simple models of site visitation. This is rooted in the inhomogeneous nature of the browsing pattern characterizing individual users: the time interval between consecutive visits by the same user to the site follows a power law distribution, in contrast with the exponential expected for Poisson processes. We show that the exponent characterizing the individual user's browsing patterns determines the power-law decay in a document's visitation. Finally, we turn our attention to biological networks and demonstrate quantitatively that protein complexes in the yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, are comprised of a core in which subunits are highly coexpressed, display the same deletion phenotype (essential or non-essential) and share identical functional classification and cellular localization. The results allow us to define the deletion phenotype and cellular task of most known complexes, and to identify with high confidence the biochemical role of hundreds of proteins with yet unassigned functionality.

Policy and Research in a Post-Conflict Context: Issues and Challenges in the Implementation of the Rwandan Teacher Development and Management Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rutaisire, John; Gahima, Charles

2009-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between policy development and research evidence with specific reference to the Rwandan Teacher Development and Management Policy introduced in 2005. It aims to highlight the complexity of implementing large-scale system wide change in the specific context of a small African nation…