Science.gov

Sample records for scenario based performance

  1. Time Pressure in Scenario-Based Online Construction Safety Quizzes and Its Effect on Students' Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jaeger, Martin; Adair, Desmond

    2017-01-01

    Online quizzes have been shown to be effective learning and assessment approaches. However, if scenario-based online construction safety quizzes do not include time pressure similar to real-world situations, they reflect situations too ideally. The purpose of this paper is to compare engineering students' performance when carrying out an online…

  2. Mars base buildup scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  3. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  4. Evaluation of the performance of accelerometer-based gait event detection algorithms in different real-world scenarios using the MAREA gait database.

    PubMed

    Khandelwal, Siddhartha; Wickström, Nicholas

    2017-01-01

    Numerous gait event detection (GED) algorithms have been developed using accelerometers as they allow the possibility of long-term gait analysis in everyday life. However, almost all such existing algorithms have been developed and assessed using data collected in controlled indoor experiments with pre-defined paths and walking speeds. On the contrary, human gait is quite dynamic in the real-world, often involving varying gait speeds, changing surfaces and varying surface inclinations. Though portable wearable systems can be used to conduct experiments directly in the real-world, there is a lack of publicly available gait datasets or studies evaluating the performance of existing GED algorithms in various real-world settings. This paper presents a new gait database called MAREA (n=20 healthy subjects) that consists of walking and running in indoor and outdoor environments with accelerometers positioned on waist, wrist and both ankles. The study also evaluates the performance of six state-of-the-art accelerometer-based GED algorithms in different real-world scenarios, using the MAREA gait database. The results reveal that the performance of these algorithms is inconsistent and varies with changing environments and gait speeds. All algorithms demonstrated good performance for the scenario of steady walking in a controlled indoor environment with a combined median F1score of 0.98 for Heel-Strikes and 0.94 for Toe-Offs. However, they exhibited significantly decreased performance when evaluated in other lesser controlled scenarios such as walking and running in an outdoor street, with a combined median F1score of 0.82 for Heel-Strikes and 0.53 for Toe-Offs. Moreover, all GED algorithms displayed better performance for detecting Heel-Strikes as compared to Toe-Offs, when evaluated in different scenarios. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Performance analysis of communication links based on VCSEL and silicon photonics technology for high-capacity data-intensive scenario.

    PubMed

    Boletti, A; Boffi, P; Martelli, P; Ferrario, M; Martinelli, M

    2015-01-26

    To face the increased demand for bandwidth, cost-effectiveness and simplicity of future Ethernet data communications, a comparison between two different solutions based on directly-modulated VCSEL sources and Silicon Photonics technologies is carried out. Also by exploiting 4-PAM modulation, the transmission of 50-Gb/s and beyond capacity per channel is analyzed by means of BER performance. Applications for optical backplane, very short reach and in case of client-optics networks and intra and inter massive data centers communications (up to 10 km) are taken into account. A comparative analysis based on the power consumption is also proposed.

  6. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  7. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  8. Comparison of traditional advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) course instruction vs. a scenario-based, performance oriented team instruction (SPOTI) method for Korean paramedic students.

    PubMed

    Lee, Christopher C; Im, Mark; Kim, Tae Min; Stapleton, Edward R; Kim, Kyuseok; Suh, Gil Joon; Singer, Adam J; Henry, Mark C

    2010-01-01

    Current Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) course instruction involves a 2-day course with traditional lectures and limited team interaction. We wish to explore the advantages of a scenario-based performance-oriented team instruction (SPOTI) method to implement core ACLS skills for non-English-speaking international paramedic students. The objective of this study was to determine if scenario-based, performance-oriented team instruction (SPOTI) improves educational outcomes for the ACLS instruction of Korean paramedic students. Thirty Korean paramedic students were randomly selected into two groups. One group of 15 students was taught the traditional ACLS course. The other 15 students were instructed using a SPOTI method. Each group was tested using ACLS megacode examinations endorsed by the American Heart Association. All 30 students passed the ACLS megacode examination. In the traditional ACLS study group an average of 85% of the core skills were met. In the SPOTI study group an average of 93% of the core skills were met. In particular, the SPOTI study group excelled at physical examination skills such as airway opening, assessment of breathing, signs of circulation, and compression rates. In addition, the SPOTI group performed with higher marks on rhythm recognition compared to the traditional group. The traditional group performed with higher marks at providing proper drug dosages compared to the SPOTI students. However, the students enrolled in the SPOTI method resulted in higher megacode core compliance scores compared to students trained in traditional ACLS course instruction. These differences did not achieve statistical significance due to the small sample size.

  9. The Impact of Collegiate Aviation Student Learning Styles on Flight Performance: A Scenario-Based Training Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harriman, Stanley L.

    2011-01-01

    The introduction of the glass cockpit, as well as a whole new generation of high performance general aviation aircraft, highlights the need for a comprehensive overhaul of the traditional approach to training pilots. Collegiate aviation institutions that are interested in upgrading their training aircraft fleets will need to design new curricula…

  10. The Impact of Collegiate Aviation Student Learning Styles on Flight Performance: A Scenario-Based Training Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harriman, Stanley L.

    2011-01-01

    The introduction of the glass cockpit, as well as a whole new generation of high performance general aviation aircraft, highlights the need for a comprehensive overhaul of the traditional approach to training pilots. Collegiate aviation institutions that are interested in upgrading their training aircraft fleets will need to design new curricula…

  11. Common Criteria Based Security Scenario Verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohnishi, Atsushi

    Software is required to comply with the laws and standards of software security. However, stakeholders with less concern regarding security can neither describe the behaviour of the system with regard to security nor validate the system’s behaviour when the security function conflicts with usability. Scenarios or use-case specifications are common in requirements elicitation and are useful to analyze the usability of the system from a behavioural point of view. In this paper, the authors propose both (1) a scenario language based on a simple case grammar and (2) a method to verify a scenario with rules based on security evaluation criteria.

  12. Proof-of-Concept Demonstrations for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis. Modeling Operator Performance During Flooding Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Boring, Ronald Laurids; Herberger, Sarah Elizabeth Marie; Mandelli, Diego; Smith, Curtis Lee

    2015-09-01

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program has the overall objective to help sustain the existing commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To accomplish this program objective, there are multiple LWRS “pathways,” or research and development (R&D) focus areas. One LWRS focus area is called the Risk-Informed Safety Margin and Characterization (RISMC) pathway. Initial efforts under this pathway to combine probabilistic and plant multi-physics models to quantify safety margins and support business decisions also included HRA, but in a somewhat simplified manner. HRA experts at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have been collaborating with other experts to develop a computational HRA approach, called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), for inclusion into the RISMC framework. The basic premise of this research is to leverage applicable computational techniques, namely simulation and modeling, to develop and then, using RAVEN as a controller, seamlessly integrate virtual operator models (HUNTER) with 1) the dynamic computational MOOSE runtime environment that includes a full-scope plant model, and 2) the RISMC framework PRA models already in use. The HUNTER computational HRA approach is a hybrid approach that leverages past work from cognitive psychology, human performance modeling, and HRA, but it is also a significant departure from existing static and even dynamic HRA methods. This report is divided into five chapters that cover the development of an external flooding event test case and associated statistical modeling considerations.

  13. Exploring Young Children's Performance on and Acceptance of an Educational Scenario-Based Digital Game for Teaching Route-Planning Strategies: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lin, Yi-Hui; Hou, Huei-Tse

    2016-01-01

    Researchers suggest that game-based learning (GBL) can be used to facilitate mathematics learning. However, empirical GBL research that targets young children is still limited. The purposes of the study is to develop a scenario-based digital game to promote children's route-planning ability, to empirically explore children's learning performance…

  14. Exploring Young Children's Performance on and Acceptance of an Educational Scenario-Based Digital Game for Teaching Route-Planning Strategies: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lin, Yi-Hui; Hou, Huei-Tse

    2016-01-01

    Researchers suggest that game-based learning (GBL) can be used to facilitate mathematics learning. However, empirical GBL research that targets young children is still limited. The purposes of the study is to develop a scenario-based digital game to promote children's route-planning ability, to empirically explore children's learning performance…

  15. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    EPA Science Inventory

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit m...

  16. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    EPA Science Inventory

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit m...

  17. Competency-Based Teacher Education: A Scenario.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weber, Wilford A.; Cooper, James M.

    This fictitious scenario embodies all the characteristics and dimensions for a fully developed competency-based teacher education program envisioned by the authors. A single program and its implications for students, faculty, and the institution are presented. Specific areas of the program covered 1) a fundamental description of the competency…

  18. Impact of stress on resident performance in simulated trauma scenarios.

    PubMed

    Harvey, Adrian; Bandiera, Glen; Nathens, Avery B; LeBlanc, Vicki R

    2012-02-01

    Training and practice in medicine are inherently stressful. The effects of stress on performance in clinical situations are poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the stress responses and clinical performance of residents during low and high stress (HS) simulated trauma resuscitations. Thirteen emergency medicine and general surgery residents were evaluated in HS and low stress (LS) trauma resuscitation simulations. Subjective and physiologic (heart rate, salivary cortisol) responses were measured at baseline and in response to the scenarios. Performance was assessed with global rating and checklist scores of technical performance, time to record critical information, and the Anesthesia Non-Technical Skills tool. Post-scenario recall was assessed with the completion of a standardized trauma history form. Post-scenario subjective stress and cortisol levels were higher in the HS scenario compared with the LS scenario (p < 0.05). Checklist performance scores and post-scenario recall were significantly lower in the HS compared with the LS condition (p < 0.05). In trainees, some aspects of performance and immediate recall appear to be impaired in complex clinical scenarios in which they exhibit elevated subjective and physiologic stress responses. The findings of this study highlight a potential threat to patient safety and demand further investigation. Future studies should strive to further elucidate the effects of stress on specific components of performance and investigate ways to reduce its negative impact. Copyright © 2012 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

  19. Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening Scenarios in a Population-Based Setting: A Microsimulation Modeling Analysis in Ontario, Canada

    PubMed Central

    ten Haaf, Kevin; Tammemägi, Martin C.; Bondy, Susan J.; van der Aalst, Carlijn M.; Gu, Sumei; de Koning, Harry J.

    2017-01-01

    Background The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) results indicate that computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening for current and former smokers with three annual screens can be cost-effective in a trial setting. However, the cost-effectiveness in a population-based setting with >3 screening rounds is uncertain. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the effects of screening eligibility criteria. Methods and Findings This study used microsimulation modeling informed by various data sources, including the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP), Ontario Cancer Registry, smoking behavior surveys, and the NLST. Persons, born between 1940 and 1969, were examined from a third-party health care payer perspective across a lifetime horizon. Starting in 2015, 576 CT screening scenarios were examined, varying by age to start and end screening, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening interval. Among the examined outcome measures were lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, percentage ever screened, costs (in 2015 Canadian dollars), and overdiagnosis. The results of the base-case analysis indicated that annual screening was more cost-effective than biennial screening. Scenarios with eligibility criteria that required as few as 20 pack-years were dominated by scenarios that required higher numbers of accumulated pack-years. In general, scenarios that applied stringent smoking eligibility criteria (i.e., requiring higher levels of accumulated smoking exposure) were more cost-effective than scenarios with less stringent smoking eligibility criteria, with modest differences in life-years gained. Annual screening between ages 55–75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,136 Canadian dollars ($33,825 in May 1, 2015, United States dollars) per

  20. Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening Scenarios in a Population-Based Setting: A Microsimulation Modeling Analysis in Ontario, Canada.

    PubMed

    Ten Haaf, Kevin; Tammemägi, Martin C; Bondy, Susan J; van der Aalst, Carlijn M; Gu, Sumei; McGregor, S Elizabeth; Nicholas, Garth; de Koning, Harry J; Paszat, Lawrence F

    2017-02-01

    The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) results indicate that computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening for current and former smokers with three annual screens can be cost-effective in a trial setting. However, the cost-effectiveness in a population-based setting with >3 screening rounds is uncertain. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the effects of screening eligibility criteria. This study used microsimulation modeling informed by various data sources, including the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP), Ontario Cancer Registry, smoking behavior surveys, and the NLST. Persons, born between 1940 and 1969, were examined from a third-party health care payer perspective across a lifetime horizon. Starting in 2015, 576 CT screening scenarios were examined, varying by age to start and end screening, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening interval. Among the examined outcome measures were lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, percentage ever screened, costs (in 2015 Canadian dollars), and overdiagnosis. The results of the base-case analysis indicated that annual screening was more cost-effective than biennial screening. Scenarios with eligibility criteria that required as few as 20 pack-years were dominated by scenarios that required higher numbers of accumulated pack-years. In general, scenarios that applied stringent smoking eligibility criteria (i.e., requiring higher levels of accumulated smoking exposure) were more cost-effective than scenarios with less stringent smoking eligibility criteria, with modest differences in life-years gained. Annual screening between ages 55-75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,136 Canadian dollars ($33,825 in May 1, 2015, United States dollars) per life-year gained (compared to

  1. Scenarios for the Hanford Immobilized Low-Activity Waste (ILAW) performance assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MANN, F.M.

    1999-03-17

    Scenarios describing representative exposure cases associated with the disposal of low activity waste from the Hanford Waste Tanks have been defined. These scenarios are based on guidance from the Department of Energy, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and previous Hanford waste disposal performance assessments.

  2. Simulations of KSTAR high performance steady state operation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Na, Yong-Su; Kessel, C. E.; Park, J. M.; Yi, Sumin; Becoulet, A.; Sips, A. C. C.; Kim, J. Y.

    2009-11-01

    We report the results of predictive modelling of high performance steady state operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the capabilities of steady state operation are investigated with time-dependent simulations using a free-boundary plasma equilibrium evolution code coupled with transport calculations. Secondly, the reproducibility of high performance steady state operation scenarios developed in the DIII-D tokamak, of similar size to that of KSTAR, is investigated using the experimental data taken from DIII-D. Finally, the capability of ITER-relevant steady state operation is investigated in KSTAR. It is found that KSTAR is able to establish high performance steady state operation scenarios; βN above 3, H98(y, 2) up to 2.0, fBS up to 0.76 and fNI equals 1.0. In this work, a realistic density profile is newly introduced for predictive simulations by employing the scaling law of a density peaking factor. The influence of the current ramp-up scenario and the transport model is discussed with respect to the fusion performance and non-inductive current drive fraction in the transport simulations. As observed in the experiments, both the heating and the plasma current waveforms in the current ramp-up phase produce a strong effect on the q-profile, the fusion performance and also on the non-inductive current drive fraction in the current flattop phase. A criterion in terms of qmin is found to establish ITER-relevant steady state operation scenarios. This will provide a guideline for designing the current ramp-up phase in KSTAR. It is observed that the transport model also affects the predictive values of fusion performance as well as the non-inductive current drive fraction. The Weiland transport model predicts the highest fusion performance as well as non-inductive current drive fraction in KSTAR. In contrast, the GLF23 model exhibits the lowest ones. ITER-relevant advanced scenarios cannot be obtained with the GLF23 model in the conditions given in this work. Finally

  3. Simulations of KSTAR high performance steady state operation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Na, Y S; Kessel, C. E.; Park, Jin Myung; Yi, Sumin; Becoulet, A.; Sips, A C C; Kim, J Y

    2009-01-01

    We report the results of predictive modelling of high performance steady state operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the capabilities of steady state operation are investigated with time-dependent simulations using a free-boundary plasma equilibrium evolution code coupled with transport calculations. Secondly, the reproducibility of high performance steady state operation scenarios developed in the DIII-D tokamak, of similar size to that of KSTAR, is investigated using the experimental data taken from DIII-D. Finally, the capability of ITER-relevant steady state operation is investigated in KSTAR. It is found that KSTAR is able to establish high performance steady state operation scenarios; beta(N) above 3, H-98(y, 2) up to 2.0, f(BS) up to 0.76 and f(NI) equals 1.0. In this work, a realistic density profile is newly introduced for predictive simulations by employing the scaling law of a density peaking factor. The influence of the current ramp-up scenario and the transport model is discussed with respect to the fusion performance and non-inductive current drive fraction in the transport simulations. As observed in the experiments, both the heating and the plasma current waveforms in the current ramp-up phase produce a strong effect on the q-profile, the fusion performance and also on the non-inductive current drive fraction in the current flattop phase. A criterion in terms of q(min) is found to establish ITER-relevant steady state operation scenarios. This will provide a guideline for designing the current ramp-up phase in KSTAR. It is observed that the transport model also affects the predictive values of fusion performance as well as the non-inductive current drive fraction. The Weiland transport model predicts the highest fusion performance as well as non-inductive current drive fraction in KSTAR. In contrast, the GLF23 model exhibits the lowest ones. ITER-relevant advanced scenarios cannot be obtained with the GLF23 model in the conditions given in this work

  4. Reliable freestanding position-based routing in highway scenarios.

    PubMed

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-10-24

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model.

  5. Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  6. Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.

  7. Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.

  8. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  9. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L.; Prescott, Steven; Ryan, Emerald; Calhoun, Donna; Sampath, Ramprasad; Anderson, S. Danielle; Casteneda, Cody

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  10. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  11. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins.

    PubMed

    Fredriksson, Albin; Bokrantz, Rasmus

    2016-03-07

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in 'easy' scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic setup uncertainty.

  12. "The Strawberry Caper": Using Scenario-Based Problem Solving to Integrate Middle School Science Topics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonda, Rebecca L.; DeHart, Kyle; Ashman, Tia-Lynn; Legg, Alison Slinskey

    2015-01-01

    Achieving a deep understanding of the many topics covered in middle school biology classes is difficult for many students. One way to help students learn these topics is through scenario-based learning, which enhances students' performance. The scenario-based problem-solving module presented here, "The Strawberry Caper," not only…

  13. "The Strawberry Caper": Using Scenario-Based Problem Solving to Integrate Middle School Science Topics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonda, Rebecca L.; DeHart, Kyle; Ashman, Tia-Lynn; Legg, Alison Slinskey

    2015-01-01

    Achieving a deep understanding of the many topics covered in middle school biology classes is difficult for many students. One way to help students learn these topics is through scenario-based learning, which enhances students' performance. The scenario-based problem-solving module presented here, "The Strawberry Caper," not only…

  14. Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

    2004-01-01

    There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

  15. Scenario Based E-Learning in Electrical Engineering Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tambunan, Hamonangan; Dalimunte, Amirhud; Silitonga, Marsangkap

    2017-01-01

    The scenario based e-learning in Electrical Engineering Education Learning (EEEL) was developed by covering the scope and characteristics of all subjects and the competence unit of graduates in the field of pedagogy, professional, social and personality, with url addresed http://jpte-ft-unimed.edu20.org. The scenario incorporates the concept of…

  16. Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2014-01-01

    Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From these five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

  17. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Dual Mission Scenarios for the Human Lunar Campaign - Performance, Cost and Risk Benefits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saucillo, Rudolph J.; Reeves, David M.; Chrone, Jonathan D.; Stromgren, Chel; Reeves, John D.; North, David D.

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios for human lunar operations with capabilities significantly beyond Constellation Program baseline missions are potentially feasible based on the concept of dual, sequential missions utilizing a common crew and a single Ares I/CEV (Crew Exploration Vehicle). For example, scenarios possible within the scope of baseline technology planning include outpost-based sortie missions and dual sortie missions. Top level cost benefits of these dual sortie scenarios may be estimated by comparison to the Constellation Program reference two-mission-per-year lunar campaign. The primary cost benefit is the accomplishment of Mission B with a "single launch solution" since no Ares I launch is required. Cumulative risk to the crew is lowered since crew exposure to launch risks and Earth return risks are reduced versus comparable Constellation Program reference two-mission-per-year scenarios. Payload-to-the-lunar-surface capability is substantially increased in the Mission B sortie as a result of additional propellant available for Lunar Lander #2 descent. This additional propellant is a result of EDS #2 transferring a smaller stack through trans-lunar injection and using remaining propellant to perform a portion of the lunar orbit insertion (LOI) maneuver. This paper describes these dual mission concepts, including cost, risk and performance benefits per lunar sortie site, and provides an initial feasibility assessment.

  19. Technical Feasibility Assessment of Lunar Base Mission Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magelssen, Trygve ``Spike''; Sadeh, Eligar

    2005-02-01

    Investigation of the literature pertaining to lunar base (LB) missions and the technologies required for LB development has revealed an information gap that hinders technical feasibility assessment. This information gap is the absence of technical readiness levels (TRL) (Mankins, 1995) and information pertaining to the criticality of the critical enabling technologies (CETs) that enable mission success. TRL is a means of identifying technical readiness stages of a technology. Criticality is defined as the level of influence the CET has on the mission scenario. The hypothesis of this research study is that technical feasibility is a function of technical readiness and technical readiness is a function of criticality. A newly developed research analysis method is used to identify the technical feasibility of LB mission scenarios. A Delphi is used to ascertain technical readiness levels and CET criticality-to-mission. The research analysis method is applied to the Delphi results to determine the technical feasibility of the LB mission scenarios that include: observatory, science research, lunar settlement, space exploration gateway, space resource utilization, and space tourism. The CETs identified encompasses four major system level technologies of: transportation, life support, structures, and power systems. Results of the technical feasibility assessment show the observatory and science research LB mission scenarios to be more technical ready out of all the scenarios, but all mission scenarios are in very close proximity to each other in regard to criticality and TRL and no one mission scenario stands out as being absolutely more technically ready than any of the other scenarios. What is significant and of value are the Delphi results concerning CET criticality-to-mission and the TRL values evidenced in the Tables that can be used by anyone assessing the technical feasibility of LB missions.

  20. Scenario-Based Training at the F.B.I.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whitcomb, Chris

    1999-01-01

    The 16-week training program offered by the FBI Academy for all new agents is a scenario-based curriculum that includes a range of subjects from the rules of evidence to defensive tactics and provides agents with a clear understanding of how to conduct a full investigation from start to finish. (JOW)

  1. Improving learning performance with happiness by interactive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Chuang, Chi-Hung; Chen, Ying-Nong; Tsai, Luo-Wei; Lee, Chun-Chieh; Tsai, Hsin-Chun

    2014-01-01

    Recently, digital learning has attracted a lot of researchers to improve the problems of learning carelessness, low learning ability, lack of concentration, and difficulties in comprehending the logic of math. In this study, a digital learning system based on Kinect somatosensory system is proposed to make children and teenagers happily learn in the course of the games and improve the learning performance. We propose two interactive geometry and puzzle games. The proposed somatosensory games can make learners feel curious and raise their motivation to find solutions for boring problems via abundant physical expressions and interactive operations. The players are asked to select particular operation by gestures and physical expressions within a certain time. By doing so, the learners can feel the fun of game playing and train their logic ability before they are aware. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed somatosensory system can effectively improve the students' learning performance.

  2. Improving Learning Performance with Happiness by Interactive Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Chuang, Chi-Hung; Chen, Ying-Nong; Tsai, Luo-Wei; Lee, Chun-Chieh; Tsai, Hsin-Chun

    2014-01-01

    Recently, digital learning has attracted a lot of researchers to improve the problems of learning carelessness, low learning ability, lack of concentration, and difficulties in comprehending the logic of math. In this study, a digital learning system based on Kinect somatosensory system is proposed to make children and teenagers happily learn in the course of the games and improve the learning performance. We propose two interactive geometry and puzzle games. The proposed somatosensory games can make learners feel curious and raise their motivation to find solutions for boring problems via abundant physical expressions and interactive operations. The players are asked to select particular operation by gestures and physical expressions within a certain time. By doing so, the learners can feel the fun of game playing and train their logic ability before they are aware. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed somatosensory system can effectively improve the students' learning performance. PMID:24558331

  3. Scenario-based Storm Surge Vulnerability Assessment of Catanduanes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suarez, J. K. B.

    2015-12-01

    After the devastating storm surge effect of Typhoon Haiyan, the public recognized an improved communication about risks, vulnerabilities and what is threatened by storm surge. This can be provided by vulnerability maps which allow better visual presentations and understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities. Local implementers can direct the resources needed for protection of these areas. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are relevant in all phases of disaster management designed by the National Disaster Risk Reduction Council (NDRRMC) - disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation and response and recovery and rehabilitation. This paper aims to analyze the vulnerability of Catanduanes, a coastal province in the Philippines, to storm surges in terms of four parameters: population, built environment, natural environment and agricultural production. The vulnerability study relies on the storm surge inundation maps based on the Department of Science and Technology Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards' (DOST-Project NOAH) proposed four Storm Surge Advisory (SSA) scenarios (1-2, 3, 4, and 5 meters) for predicting storm surge heights. To determine total percent affected for each parameter elements, an overlay analysis was performed in ArcGIS Desktop. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are generated as a final output and a tool for visualizing the impacts of storm surge event at different surge heights. The result of this study would help the selected province to know their present condition and adapt strategies to strengthen areas where they are found to be most vulnerable in order to prepare better for the future.

  4. Developing team based acute care scenarios: a rural hospital experience.

    PubMed

    Missen, Karen; Sparkes, Louise; Porter, Joanne; Cooper, Simon; McConnell-Henry, Tracy

    2013-07-01

    Health professionals work in teams in a variety of health care settings especially in medical emergency teams at times of crisis. However, Registered Nurses (RNs) rarely have the chance to partake in educational programs designed for teams of nurses to practice working together in life-threatening situations. Further RN's employed in rural setting have less opportunities for professional development than their city based counterparts. Simulated scenarios with a patient actor in a rural hospital have been utilised in this study to provide nurses with the opportunity to work as a team in the early recognition and management of patients with acute medical conditions. This discussion paper focuses on one aspect of a larger research project with the aim of describing the development of team based scenarios for a rural hospital setting, focusing on the detection and management of a deteriorating patient. Three team based scenarios, the related assessments and feedback techniques are all described. Team based simulation provides a unique opportunity to assist registered nurses in rural settings in re-skilling or maintaining their emergency management skills. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. The real world and lunar base activation scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schmitt, Harrison H.

    1992-01-01

    A lunar base or a network of lunar bases may have highly desirable support functions in a national or international program to explore and settle Mars. In addition, He-3 exported from the Moon could be the basis for providing much of the energy needs of humankind in the twenty-first century. Both technical and managerial issues must be addressed when considering the establishment of a lunar base that can serve the needs of human civilization in space. Many of the technical issues become evident in the consideration of hypothetical scenarios for the activation of a network of lunar bases. Specific and realistic assumptions must be made about the conduct of various types of activities in addition to the general assumptions given above. These activities include landings, crew consumables, power production, crew selection, risk management, habitation, science station placement, base planning, science, agriculture, resource evaluation, readaptation, plant activation and test, storage module landings, resource transport module landings, integrated operations, maintenance, Base 2 activation, and management. The development of scenarios for the activation of a lunar base or network of bases will require close attention to the 'real world' of space operations. That world is defined by the natural environment, available technology, realistic objectives, and common sense.

  6. Mortality estimation based on Business as Usual Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozzer, Andrea; Lelieveld, Jos; Barlas, Ceren

    2013-04-01

    Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. Epidemiological studies have shown that these pollutants increase lung cancer, cardiopulmonary and respiratory mortality. The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC has been used to estimate the concentration of such pollutants in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050), based on a Business as Usual scenario. The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy consumption and consequent pollution sources ("business as usual"). Based on the modeled pollutants concentrations and the UN estimates of population growth in the future, we assessed the premature mortality and the years of human life lost (YLL) caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization. The premature mortality for people of 30 years and older were estimated using a health impact function using parameters derived from epidemiological studies. Our results suggest that with a Business as Usual scenario, the ratio between mortality and population would increase of ~ 50% by 2050. This ratio, together with the increase of world population, would lead by the year 2050 to 8.9 millions premature deaths, equivalent to 79 millions of YYL.

  7. Radiological operational scenario for a permanent lunar base

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCormack, Percival D.

    An operational scenario for a lunar base is postulated based on 30 lunar base personnel and 2 year tours of duty plus stipulated numbers of EVA's and sorties in the lunar rover vehicles. It is also postulated that the main shielding material for the lunar base units (habitats, laboratories, etc.) will be lunar regolith. Using the solar minimum period as the basis, total accumulated dose equivalents for the galactic cosmic radiation over the two year period are computed at various shielding depths. Depths of regolith of over 20 g/sq cm are sufficient to reduce the total dose equivalents to well under the present limits. The second arm of the radiological health strategy -- continuous and all-encompassing radiation dosimetry -- is also discussed in some detail. It is also emphasized that monitoring of the base personnel for genetic mutations and chromosomal aberrations must be part of the radiological health program in the lunar base.

  8. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The model performance evaluation consists of metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit measures that capture magnitude only, sequence only, and combined magnitude and sequence errors.

  9. Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

    2015-04-01

    It is advisable to account for a wide range of uncertainty by including the maximum possible number of climate models and scenarios for future impacts. As this is not always feasible, impact assessments are inevitably performed with a limited set of scenarios. The development of tailored scenarios is a challenge that needs more attention as the number of available climate change simulations grows. Whether these scenarios are representative enough for climate change impacts is a question that needs addressing. This study presents a methodology of constructing tailored scenarios for assessing runoff flows including extreme conditions (peak flows) from an ensemble of future climate change signals of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) derived from the climate model simulations. The aim of the tailoring process is to formulate scenarios that can optimally represent the uncertainty spectrum of climate scenarios. These tailored scenarios have the advantage of being few in number as well as having a clear description of the seasonal variation of the climate signals, hence allowing easy interpretation of the implications of future changes. The tailoring process requires an analysis of the hydrological impacts from the likely future change signals from all available climate model simulations in a simplified (computationally less expensive) impact model. Historical precipitation and ETo time series are perturbed with the climate change signals based on a quantile perturbation technique that accounts for the changes in extremes. For precipitation, the change in wetday frequency is taken into account using a markov-chain approach. Resulting hydrological impacts from the perturbed time series are then subdivided into high, mean and low hydrological impacts using a quantile change analysis. From this classification, the corresponding precipitation and ETo change factors are back-tracked on a seasonal basis to determine precipitation-ETo covariation. The

  10. Improvement of nursing students' learning outcomes through scenario-based skills training

    PubMed Central

    Uysal, Nurcan

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Objective: this study analyzed the influence of scenario-based skills training on students' learning skills. Method: the author evaluated the nursing skills laboratory exam papers of 605 sophomores in nursing programs for seven years. The study determined the common mistakes of students and the laboratory work was designed in a scenario-based format. The effectiveness of this method was evaluated by assessing the number of errors the students committed and their achievement scores in laboratory examinations. This study presents the students' common mistakes in intramuscular and subcutaneous injection and their development of intravenous access skills, included in the nursing skills laboratory examination. Results: an analysis of the students' most common mistakes revealed that the most common was not following the principles of asepsis for all three skills (intramuscular, subcutaneous injection, intravenous access) in the first year of the scenario-based training. The students' exam achievement scores increased gradually, except in the fall semester of the academic year 2009-2010. The study found that the scenario-based skills training reduced students' common mistakes in examinations and enhanced their performance on exams. Conclusion: this method received a positive response from both students and instructors. The scenario-based training is available for use in addition to other skills training methods. PMID:27508922

  11. Developing concept maps from problem-based learning scenario discussions.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Li-Ling

    2004-12-01

    This paper reports a study examining the effects of adopting concept mapping in problem-based learning scenario discussions on the improvement of students' learning outcomes in a nursing course. Students in Taiwan usually have a high degree of anxiety about whether or not they have learned enough. Problem-based learning is a method of teaching that uses a patient situation or scenario to stimulate students to acquire and apply information to solve problems. Concept mapping can promote problem-solving and critical thinking to help students organize complex patient data, process complex relationships and offer holistic care to patients. An experimental design was used, with participants randomly assigned either to a control or experimental group. The experimental group participated in six problem-based learning scenario discussions during the 16-week semester, while the control group attended a traditional course. The experimental group had significantly higher proposition and hierarchy scores for their concept maps compared with the control group. There were no significant differences in the cross-link and example scores between the two groups. In general, the total score difference between the groups did not reach statistical significance levels. Only one student in the experimental group obtained a high score; most participants in both groups (over 50%) obtained low scores. Concept mapping strategies may be useful for analysis of individual student's thinking processes for (1) emphasizing key concepts or main ideas, (2) understanding relationships between different concepts, including cause-effect and part-whole relationships, (3) reviewing propositions, hierarchies and cross-links in a logically scientific way, and (4) revising concept structures to agree with theory and experience.

  12. Loose and Tight GNSS/INS Integrations: Comparison of Performance Assessed in Real Urban Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Falco, Gianluca; Pini, Marco; Marucco, Gianluca

    2017-01-01

    Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs) remain the principal mean of positioning in many applications and systems, but in several types of environment, the performance of standalone receivers is degraded. Although many works show the benefits of the integration between GNSS and Inertial Navigation Systems (INSs), tightly-coupled architectures are mainly implemented in professional devices and are based on high-grade Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs). This paper investigates the performance improvements enabled by the tight integration, using low-cost sensors and a mass-market GNSS receiver. Performance is assessed through a series of tests carried out in real urban scenarios and is compared against commercial modules, operating in standalone mode or featuring loosely-coupled integrations. The paper describes the developed tight-integration algorithms with a terse mathematical model and assesses their efficacy from a practical perspective. PMID:28146058

  13. Loose and Tight GNSS/INS Integrations: Comparison of Performance Assessed in Real Urban Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Falco, Gianluca; Pini, Marco; Marucco, Gianluca

    2017-01-29

    Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs) remain the principal mean of positioning in many applications and systems, but in several types of environment, the performance of standalone receivers is degraded. Although many works show the benefits of the integration between GNSS and Inertial Navigation Systems (INSs), tightly-coupled architectures are mainly implemented in professional devices and are based on high-grade Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs). This paper investigates the performance improvements enabled by the tight integration, using low-cost sensors and a mass-market GNSS receiver. Performance is assessed through a series of tests carried out in real urban scenarios and is compared against commercial modules, operating in standalone mode or featuring loosely-coupled integrations. The paper describes the developed tight-integration algorithms with a terse mathematical model and assesses their efficacy from a practical perspective.

  14. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    SciTech Connect

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

    2006-07-01

    control systems, perpetrators will attempt to control and defeat automation systems, engineering access, control systems and protective systems implemented in today's critical infrastructures. Major systems such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems are likely targets for attack. Not all attack scenarios have the same expected frequency or consequence. The attacks will be directed and structured and thus, are not be characterized as random events when one considers failure probabilities. Attack types differ in their consequence as a function of the probability associated with various sub events in the presence of specific system configurations. Ideally, a series of generic scenarios can be identified for each of the major critical infrastructure (CI) sectors. A scenario-based approach to risk assessment allows decision makers to place financial and personnel resources in-place for attacks that truly matter: e.g. attacks that generate physical and economic damage. The use of scenario-based analysis allows risk reduction goals to be informed by more than consequence analysis alone. The key CI targets used in the present study were identified previously as part of a mid-level consequence analysis performed at INL by the Control System Security Program (CSSP) for the National Cyber Security Div. (NCSD) of the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS). This paper discusses the process for and results associated with the development of scenario-based cyber attacks upon control systems including the information and personnel requirements for scenario development. Challenges to scenario development including completeness and uncertainty characterization are discussed as well. Further, the scenario discussed herein, is one of a number of scenarios for infrastructures currently under review. (authors)

  15. Reading for Understanding: How Performance Moderators and Scenarios Impact Assessment Design. Research Report. ETS RR-13-31

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Reilly, Tenaha; Sabatini, John

    2013-01-01

    This paper represents the third installment of the Reading for Understanding (RfU) assessment framework. This paper builds upon the two prior installments (Sabatini & O'Reilly, 2013; Sabatini, O'Reilly, & Deane, 2013) by discussing the role of performance moderators in the test design and how scenario-based assessment can be used as a tool…

  16. The use of scenario-based-learning interactive software to create custom virtual laboratory scenarios for teaching genetics.

    PubMed

    Breakey, Kate M; Levin, Daniel; Miller, Ian; Hentges, Kathryn E

    2008-07-01

    Mutagenesis screens and analysis of mutant phenotypes are one of the most powerful approaches for the study of genetics. Yet genetics students often have difficulty understanding the experimental procedures and breeding crosses required in mutagenesis screens and linking mutant phenotypes to molecular defects. Performing these experiments themselves often aids students in understanding the methodology. However, there are limitations to performing genetics experiments in a student laboratory. For example, the generation time of laboratory model organisms is considerable, and a laboratory exercise that involves many rounds of breeding or analysis of many mutants is not often feasible. Additionally, the cost of running a laboratory practical, along with safety considerations for particular reagents or protocols, often dictates the experiments that students can perform. To provide an alternative to a traditional laboratory module, we have used Scenario-Based-Learning Interactive (SBLi) software to develop a virtual laboratory to support a second year undergraduate course entitled "Genetic Analysis." This resource allows students to proceed through the steps of a genetics experiment, without the time, cost, or safety constraints of a traditional laboratory exercise.

  17. Using Crash Data to Develop Simulator Scenarios for Assessing Novice Driver Performance

    PubMed Central

    McDonald, Catherine C.; Tanenbaum, Jason B.; Lee, Yi-Ching; Fisher, Donald L.; Mayhew, Daniel R.; Winston, Flaura K.

    2013-01-01

    Teenage drivers are at their highest crash risk in their first 6 months or first 1,000 mi of driving. Driver training, adult-supervised practice driving, and other interventions are aimed at improving driving performance in novice drivers. Previous driver training programs have enumerated thousands of scenarios, with each scenario requiring one or more skills. Although there is general agreement about the broad set of skills needed to become a competent driver, there is no consensus set of scenarios and skills to assess whether novice drivers are likely to crash or to assess the effects of novice driver training programs on the likelihood of a crash. The authors propose that a much narrower, common set of scenarios can be used to focus on the high-risk crashes of young drivers. Until recently, it was not possible to identify the detailed set of scenarios that were specific to high-risk crashes. However, an integration of police crash reports from previous research, a number of critical simulator studies, and a nationally representative database of serious teen crashes (the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey) now make identification of these scenarios possible. In this paper, the authors propose this novel approach and discuss how to create a common set of simulated scenarios and skills to assess novice driver performance and the effects of training and interventions as they relate to high-risk crashes. PMID:23543947

  18. Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

    PubMed

    Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

    2016-05-01

    Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management.

  19. Intelligent scenario generation for simulation-based training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loftin, R. Bowen; Wang, Lui; Baffes, Paul

    1989-01-01

    A training scenario generator object database was developed to serve as a general-purpose mechanism for constructing the context needed to define a simulation scenario. It is found that the ability to automate the development of the input parameters required to produce a challenging simulation scenario targeted at a specific trainee can greatly enhance the efficiency of intelligent training systems. The approach described was used successfully in the payload-assist module deploy/intelligent computer-aided training system.

  20. The effect of safety factor profile on transport in steady-state, high-performance scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Holcomb, C. T.; Ferron, J. R.; Luce, T. C.; ...

    2012-03-09

    In this study, an analysis of the dependence of transport on the safety factor profile in high-performance, steady-state scenario discharges is presented. This is based on experimental scans of q95 and qmin taken with fixed βN, toroidal field, double-null plasma shape, divertor pumping, and electron cyclotron current drive input. The temperature and thermal diffusivity profiles were found to vary considerably with the q-profile, and these variations were significantly different for electrons and ions. With fixed q95, both temperature profiles increase and broaden as qmin is increased and the magnetic shear becomes low or negative in the inner half radius, butmore » these temperature profile changes are stronger for the electrons. Power balance calculations show the peak in the ion thermal diffusivity (χi) at ρ – 0.6 – 0.8 increases with q95 or qmin.« less

  1. Late pleistocene ice age scenarios based on observational evidence

    SciTech Connect

    DeBlonde, G. ); Peltier, W.R. )

    1993-04-01

    Ice age scenarios for the last glacial interglacial cycle, based on observations of Boyle and Keigwin concerning the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and of Barnola et al. concerning atmospheric CO[sub 2] variations derived from the Vostok ice cores, are herein analyzed. Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets are simulated with an energy balance model (EBM) that is asynchronously coupled to vertically integrated ice sheets models based on the Glen flow law. The EBM includes both a realistic land-sea distribution and temperature-albedo feedback and is driven with orbital variations of effective solar insolation. With the addition of atmospheric CO[sub 2] and ocean heat flux variations, but not in their absence, a complete collapse is obtained for the Eurasian ice sheet but not for the North American ice sheet. We therefore suggest that further feedback mechanisms, perhaps involving more accurate modeling of the dynamics of the mostly marine-based Laurentide complex appears necessary to explain termination I. 96 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs.

  2. Diminished Wastewater Treatment: Evaluation of Septic System Performance Under a Climate Change Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooper, J.; Loomis, G.; Kalen, D.; Boving, T. B.; Morales, I.; Amador, J.

    2015-12-01

    The effects of climate change are expected to reduce the ability of soil-based onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS), to treat domestic wastewater. In the northeastern U.S., the projected increase in atmospheric temperature, elevation of water tables from rising sea levels, and heightened precipitation will reduce the volume of unsaturated soil and oxygen available for treatment. Incomplete removal of contaminants may lead to transport of pathogens, nutrients, and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) to groundwater, increasing the risk to public health and likelihood of eutrophying aquatic ecosystems. Advanced OWTS, which include pre-treatment steps and provide unsaturated drainfields of greater volume relative to conventional OWTS, are expected to be more resilient to climate change. We used intact soil mesocosms to quantify water quality functions for two advanced shallow narrow drainfield types and a conventional drainfield under a current climate scenario and a moderate climate change scenario of 30 cm rise in water table and 5°C increase in soil temperature. While no fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) was released under the current climate scenario, up to 109 CFU FCB/mL (conventional) and up to 20 CFU FCB/mL (shallow narrow) were released under the climate change scenario. Total P removal rates dropped from 100% to 54% (conventional) and 71% (shallow narrow) under the climate change scenario. Total N removal averaged 17% under both climate scenarios in the conventional, but dropped from 5.4% to 0% in the shallow narrow under the climate change scenario, with additional leaching of N in excess of inputs indicating release of previously held N. No significant difference was observed between scenarios for BOD removal. The initial data indicate that while advanced OWTS retain more function under the climate change scenario, all three drainfield types experience some diminished treatment capacity.

  3. Scenario details of NPE 2012 - Independent performance assessment by simulated CTBT violation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gestermann, N.; Bönnemann, C.; Ceranna, L.; Ross, O.; Schlosser, C.

    2012-04-01

    The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) was opened for signature on 24 September 1996. The technical preparations for monitoring CTBT compliance are moving ahead rapidly and many efforts have been made since then to establish the verification system. In that regard the two underground nuclear explosions conducted by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea 2006 and 2009 were the first real performance tests of the system. In the light of these events National Data Centres (NDCs) realized the need of getting more familiar with the verification regime details. The idea of an independent annual exercise to evaluate the processing and analysis procedures applied at the National Data Centres of the CTBT was born at the NDC Evaluation Workshop in Kiev, Ukraine, 2006. The exercises should simulate a fictitious violation of the CTBT and all NDCs are invited to clarify the nature of the selected event. This exercise should help to evaluate the effectiveness of procedures applied at NDCs, as well as the quality, completeness, and usefulness of IDC products. Moreover, the National Data Centres Preparedness Exercise (NPE) is a measure for the readiness of the NDCs to fulfill their duties in regard of the CTBT verification, the treaty compliance based judgments about the nature of events as natural or artificial and chemical or nuclear, respectively. NPEs proved to be an efficient indicative tool for testing the performance of the verification system and its elements. In 2007 and 2008 the exercise were focused on seismic waveform data analysis. Since 2009 the analysis of infrasound data was included and additional attention was attached to the radionuclide component. In 2010 a realistic noble gas release scenario was selected as the trigger event which could be expected after an underground nuclear test. The epicenter location of an event from the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB), unknown for participants of the exercise, was selected as the source of the noble gas

  4. The performance of standardized patients in portraying clinical scenarios in speech-language therapy.

    PubMed

    Hill, Anne E; Davidson, Bronwyn J; Theodoros, Deborah G

    2013-01-01

    Standardized patients (SPs) are frequently included in the clinical preparation of students in the health sciences. An acknowledged benefit of using SPs is the opportunity to provide a standardized method by which students can demonstrate and develop their competency. Relatively little is known, however, about the capacity of SPs to offer an accurate and standardized performance across a speech-language therapy student cohort. To investigate the accuracy, reproducibility (consistent performance of each SP across student interviews) and replicability (consistent performance of a number of SPs across each scenario) of SPs portraying three scenarios, each as a parent of a child presenting with a speech disorder. Forty-four speech-language therapy students interviewed four SPs to gain a case history. All interviews were videotaped. The accuracy of SP portrayal of key features of each scenario was scored by an expert rater and two other raters. Data were analysed to determine levels of accuracy, reproducibility and replicability, and inter-rater reliability was evaluated. SPs were found to have moderate to high levels of accuracy across the three scenarios. There were no significant differences in the performances of each individual SP across interviews or between all SPs on each scenario, indicating that reproducibility and replicability were achieved. Overall inter-rater reliability between raters across all scenarios was greater than 80%. The results would seem to indicate that SPs can present in a standardized manner within a speech-language therapy context, confirming the value of their inclusion in clinical education programmes. Suggestions for improving the training of SPs in order to maintain accuracy are highlighted. © 2013 Royal College of Speech and Language Therapists.

  5. Tracking systems for virtual rehabilitation: objective performance vs. subjective experience. A practical scenario.

    PubMed

    Lloréns, Roberto; Noé, Enrique; Naranjo, Valery; Borrego, Adrián; Latorre, Jorge; Alcañiz, Mariano

    2015-03-19

    Motion tracking systems are commonly used in virtual reality-based interventions to detect movements in the real world and transfer them to the virtual environment. There are different tracking solutions based on different physical principles, which mainly define their performance parameters. However, special requirements have to be considered for rehabilitation purposes. This paper studies and compares the accuracy and jitter of three tracking solutions (optical, electromagnetic, and skeleton tracking) in a practical scenario and analyzes the subjective perceptions of 19 healthy subjects, 22 stroke survivors, and 14 physical therapists. The optical tracking system provided the best accuracy (1.074 ± 0.417 cm) while the electromagnetic device provided the most inaccurate results (11.027 ± 2.364 cm). However, this tracking solution provided the best jitter values (0.324 ± 0.093 cm), in contrast to the skeleton tracking, which had the worst results (1.522 ± 0.858 cm). Healthy individuals and professionals preferred the skeleton tracking solution rather than the optical and electromagnetic solution (in that order). Individuals with stroke chose the optical solution over the other options. Our results show that subjective perceptions and preferences are far from being constant among different populations, thus suggesting that these considerations, together with the performance parameters, should be also taken into account when designing a rehabilitation system.

  6. Tracking Systems for Virtual Rehabilitation: Objective Performance vs. Subjective Experience. A Practical Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Lloréns, Roberto; Noé, Enrique; Naranjo, Valery; Borrego, Adrián; Latorre, Jorge; Alcañiz, Mariano

    2015-01-01

    Motion tracking systems are commonly used in virtual reality-based interventions to detect movements in the real world and transfer them to the virtual environment. There are different tracking solutions based on different physical principles, which mainly define their performance parameters. However, special requirements have to be considered for rehabilitation purposes. This paper studies and compares the accuracy and jitter of three tracking solutions (optical, electromagnetic, and skeleton tracking) in a practical scenario and analyzes the subjective perceptions of 19 healthy subjects, 22 stroke survivors, and 14 physical therapists. The optical tracking system provided the best accuracy (1.074 ± 0.417 cm) while the electromagnetic device provided the most inaccurate results (11.027 ± 2.364 cm). However, this tracking solution provided the best jitter values (0.324 ± 0.093 cm), in contrast to the skeleton tracking, which had the worst results (1.522 ± 0.858 cm). Healthy individuals and professionals preferred the skeleton tracking solution rather than the optical and electromagnetic solution (in that order). Individuals with stroke chose the optical solution over the other options. Our results show that subjective perceptions and preferences are far from being constant among different populations, thus suggesting that these considerations, together with the performance parameters, should be also taken into account when designing a rehabilitation system. PMID:25808765

  7. Long Pulse High Performance Plasma Scenario Development for the National Spherical Torus Experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Kessel, C.E.; Bell, R.E.; Bell, M.G.; Gates, D.A.; Harvey, R.W.

    2006-01-01

    The National Spherical Torus Experiment [Ono et al., Nucl. Fusion, 44, 452 (2004)] is targeting long pulse high performance, noninductive sustained operations at low aspect ratio, and the demonstration of nonsolenoidal startup and current rampup. The modeling of these plasmas provides a framework for experimental planning and identifies the tools to access these regimes. Simulations based on neutral beam injection (NBI)-heated plasmas are made to understand the impact of various modifications and identify the requirements for (1) high elongation and triangularity, (2) density control to optimize the current drive, (3) plasma rotation and/or feedback stabilization to operate above the no-wall limit, and (4) electron Bernstein waves (EBW) for off-axis heating/current drive (H/CD). Integrated scenarios are constructed to provide the transport evolution and H/CD source modeling, supported by rf and stability analyses. Important factors include the energy confinement, Zeff, early heating/H mode, broadening of the NBI-driven current profile, and maintaining q(0) and qmin>1.0. Simulations show that noninductive sustained plasmas can be reached at IP=800 kA, BT=0.5 T, 2.5, N5, 15%, fNI=92%, and q(0)>1.0 with NBI H/CD, density control, and similar global energy confinement to experiments. The noninductive sustained high plasmas can be reached at IP=1.0 MA, BT=0.35 T, 2.5, N9, 43%, fNI=100%, and q(0)>1.5 with NBI H/CD and 3.0 MW of EBW H/CD, density control, and 25% higher global energy confinement than experiments. A scenario for nonsolenoidal plasma current rampup is developed using high harmonic fast wave H/CD in the early low IP and low Te phase, followed by NBI H/CD to continue the current ramp, reaching a maximum of 480 kA after 3.4 s.

  8. Logistics of a Lunar Based Solar Power Satellite Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melissopoulos, Stefanos

    1995-01-01

    A logistics system comprised of two orbital stations for the support of a 500 GW space power satellite scenario in a geostationary orbit was investigated in this study. A subsystem mass model, a mass flow model and a life cycle cost model were developed. The results regarding logistics cost and burden rates show that the transportation cost contributed the most (96%) to the overall cost of the scenario. The orbital stations at a geostationary and at a lunar orbit contributed 4 % to that cost.

  9. Scenario-Based Spoken Interaction with Virtual Agents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morton, Hazel; Jack, Mervyn A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a CALL approach which integrates software for speaker independent continuous speech recognition with embodied virtual agents and virtual worlds to create an immersive environment in which learners can converse in the target language in contextualised scenarios. The result is a self-access learning package: SPELL (Spoken…

  10. Scenario-Based Spoken Interaction with Virtual Agents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morton, Hazel; Jack, Mervyn A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a CALL approach which integrates software for speaker independent continuous speech recognition with embodied virtual agents and virtual worlds to create an immersive environment in which learners can converse in the target language in contextualised scenarios. The result is a self-access learning package: SPELL (Spoken…

  11. Designing, Developing and Implementing a Software Tool for Scenario Based Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norton, Geoff; Taylor, Mathew; Stewart, Terry; Blackburn, Greg; Jinks, Audrey; Razdar, Bahareh; Holmes, Paul; Marastoni, Enrique

    2012-01-01

    The pedagogical value of problem-based and inquiry-based learning activities has led to increased use of this approach in many courses. While scenarios or case studies were initially presented to learners as text-based material, the development of modern software technology provides the opportunity to deliver scenarios as e-learning modules,…

  12. Significance of Bias Correction in Drought Frequency and Scenario Analysis Based on Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aryal, Y.; Zhu, J.

    2015-12-01

    Assessment of future drought characteristics is difficult as climate models usually have bias in simulating precipitation frequency and intensity. To overcome this limitation, output from climate models need to be bias corrected based on the specific purpose of applications. In this study, we examine the significance of bias correction in the context of drought frequency and scenario analysis using output from climate models. In particular, we investigate the performance of three widely used bias correction techniques: (1) monthly bias correction (MBC), (2) nested bias correction (NBC), and (3) equidistance quantile mapping (EQM) The effect of bias correction in future scenario of drought frequency is also analyzed. The characteristics of drought are investigated in terms of frequency and severity in nine representative locations in different climatic regions across the United States using regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as the means to compare and forecast drought characteristics at different timescales. Systematic biases in the RCM precipitation output are corrected against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The results demonstrate that bias correction significantly decreases the RCM errors in reproducing drought frequency derived from the NARR data. Preserving mean and standard deviation is essential for climate models in drought frequency analysis. RCM biases both have regional and timescale dependence. Different timescale of input precipitation in the bias corrections show similar results. Drought frequency obtained from the RCM future (2040-2070) scenarios is compared with that from the historical simulations. The changes in drought characteristics occur in all climatic regions. The relative changes in drought frequency in future scenario in relation to

  13. A scenario-based MCDA framework for wastewater infrastructure planning under uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Jun; Egger, Christoph; Lienert, Judit

    2016-12-01

    Wastewater infrastructure management is increasingly important because of urbanization, environmental pollutants, aging infrastructures, and climate change. We propose a scenario-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to compare different infrastructure alternatives in terms of their sustainability. These range from the current centralized system to semi- and fully decentralized options. Various sources of uncertainty are considered, including external socio-economic uncertainty captured by future scenarios, uncertainty in predicting outcomes of alternatives, and incomplete preferences of stakeholders. Stochastic Multi-criteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) with Monte Carlo simulation is performed, and rank acceptability indices help identify robust alternatives. We propose step-wise local sensitivity analysis, which is useful for practitioners to effectively elicit preferences and identify major sources of uncertainty. The approach is demonstrated in a Swiss case study where ten stakeholders are involved throughout. Their preferences are quantitatively elicited by combining an online questionnaire with face-to-face interviews. The trade-off questions reveal a high concern about environmental and an unexpectedly low importance of economic criteria. This results in a surprisingly good ranking of high-tech decentralized wastewater alternatives using urine source separation for most stakeholders in all scenarios. Combining scenario planning and MCDA proves useful, as the performance of wastewater infrastructure systems is indeed sensitive to socio-economic boundary conditions and the other sources of uncertainty. The proposed sensitivity analysis suggests that a simplified elicitation procedure is sufficient in many cases. Elicitation of more information such as detailed marginal value functions should only follow if the sensitivity analysis finds this necessary. Moreover, the uncertainty of rankings can be considerably reduced by better predictions

  14. The effect of safety factor profile on transport in steady-state, high-performance scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Holcomb, C. T.; Ferron, J. R.; Luce, T. C.; DeBoo, J. C.; Park, J. M.; White, A. E.; Turco, F.; Rhodes, T. L.; Doyle, E. J.; Schmitz, L.; Van Zeeland, M. A.; McKee, G. R.

    2012-03-09

    In this study, an analysis of the dependence of transport on the safety factor profile in high-performance, steady-state scenario discharges is presented. This is based on experimental scans of q95 and qmin taken with fixed βN, toroidal field, double-null plasma shape, divertor pumping, and electron cyclotron current drive input. The temperature and thermal diffusivity profiles were found to vary considerably with the q-profile, and these variations were significantly different for electrons and ions. With fixed q95, both temperature profiles increase and broaden as qmin is increased and the magnetic shear becomes low or negative in the inner half radius, but these temperature profile changes are stronger for the electrons. Power balance calculations show the peak in the ion thermal diffusivity (χi) at ρ – 0.6 – 0.8 increases with q95 or qmin.

  15. Triage performance of first-year medical students using a multiple-casualty scenario, paper exercise.

    PubMed

    Sapp, Robert F; Brice, Jane H; Myers, J Brent; Hinchey, Paul

    2010-01-01

    Large-scale events may overwhelm the capacity of even the most advanced emergency medical systems. When patient volume outweighs the number of available emergency medical services (EMS) providers, a mass-casualty incident may require the aid of non-medical volunteers. These individuals may be utilized to perform field disaster triage, lessening the burden on EMS personnel. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of triage decisions made by newly enrolled first-year medical students after receiving a brief educational intervention. A total of 315 first-year medical students from two successive classes participated in START triage training and completed a paper-based triage exercise as part of orientation. This questionnaire consisted of 15 clinical scenarios providing brief but sufficient details for prioritization. Subjects assigned each scenario a triage category of Red, Yellow, Green, or Black, based on the START protocol and were allowed four minutes to complete the exercise. Participants from the Class of 2009 were provided with printed START reference cards, while those from the Class of 2008 were not. Two test types varying in the order of patient age values were created to determine whether patient age was a factor in triage assessment. The mean accuracy score of triage assignment by medical student volunteers after a brief START training session was 64.3%. The overall rate of over-triage was 17.8%, compared to an under-triage rate of 12.6%. There were no significant differences in triage accuracy between subjects with and without printed materials (63.9% vs. 64.6%, p = 0.729) or those completing the age-variant test types (64.4% vs. 64.1%, p = 0.889). First-year medical students who received brief START training achieved triage accuracy scores similar to those of emergency physicians, registered nurses, and paramedics in previous studies. Observed rates of under and over-triage suggest that a need exists for improving the accuracy of triage

  16. Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less

  17. Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Freeman, Lauren A

    2015-01-01

    Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

  18. Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Freeman, Lauren A.

    2015-01-01

    Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100. PMID:26053439

  19. Earthquake scenarios based on lessons from the past

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stella; Aleksandrova, Irena; Popova, Iliana

    2010-05-01

    Earthquakes are the most deadly of the natural disasters affecting the human environment; indeed catastrophic earthquakes have marked the whole human history. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The implementation of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on intervention following the disasters. The territory of Bulgaria (situated in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula) represents a typical example of high seismic risk area. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earthquakes. At the beginning of the 20-the century (from 1901 to 1928) five earthquakes with magnitude larger than or equal to MS=7.0 occurred in Bulgaria. However, no such large earthquakes occurred in Bulgaria since 1928, which may induce non-professionals to underestimate the earthquake risk. The 1986 earthquake of magnitude MS=5.7 occurred in the central northern Bulgaria (near the town of Strazhitsa) is the strongest quake after 1928. Moreover, the seismicity of the neighboring countries, like Greece, Turkey, former Yugoslavia and Romania (especially Vrancea-Romania intermediate earthquakes), influences the seismic hazard in Bulgaria. In the present study deterministic scenarios (expressed in seismic intensity) for two Bulgarian cities (Rouse and Plovdiv) are presented. The work on

  20. Scenarios and performance measures for advanced ISDN satellite design and experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pepin, Gerard R.

    1991-01-01

    Described here are the contemplated input and expected output for the Interim Service Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) Satellite (ISIS) and Full Service ISDN Satellite (FSIS) Models. The discrete event simulations of these models are presented with specific scenarios that stress ISDN satellite parameters. Performance measure criteria are presented for evaluating the advanced ISDN communication satellite designs of the NASA Satellite Communications Research (SCAR) Program.

  1. Graph-Based Comparisons of Scenarios in Intelligence Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Chin, George; Kuchar, Olga A.; Whitney, Paul D.; Powers, Mary E.; Johnson, Katherine E.

    2004-10-13

    In the role of detecting and preventing strategic surprise, intelligence analysts rely heavily on history as they refer to past cases and events to find similarities and distinctions to a current situation or threat. Analysts’ ability to identify similar cases and events, however, is very limited because the intelligence data available for searching are largely disconnected and limited in context. As a result, analysts searching intelligence data often resort to searching by keyword or timestamp. To make better use of intelligence data, analysts should not only be able to construct hypotheses of a current situation or threat but also reconstruct the full context of past events such that those events may then be effectively compared to the current situation and hypotheses. In constructing the context of a situation, case, or hypothesis, analysts decipher patterns and relationships among many different kinds and sources of information. Analysts identify these patterns and relationships through different kinds of analyses. For instance, analysts may conduct link analysis to examine different kinds of relationships, geographical analysis to look at spatial positioning and grouping, timeline analysis to lay out chronological events, and visual analysis to identify clusters of similar information. What these different kinds of analyses provide are analytical frameworks or models for organizing intelligence data along key properties. Unfortunately, these higher-level analytical models are transient: they disappear when their associated analysis tools stop executing. Consequently, analysts cannot easily associate their analyses with their intelligence data in a way that facilitates the integration of different analyses into a larger picture or the comparison of analytical models to other cases. On the Scenario and Knowledge Framework for Analytical Modelling (SKFAM) project at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, we are researching and prototyping a framework that

  2. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  3. Scenarios for the Hanford immobilized Low-Activity waste (ILAW) performance assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MANN, F.M.

    1999-09-09

    The purpose of the next version of the Hanford Immobilized Low-Activity Tank Waste (ILAW) Performance Assessment (ILAW PA) is to provide an updated estimate of the long-term human health and environmental impact of the disposal of ILAW and to compare these estimates against performance objectives displayed in Tables 1,2, and 3 (Mann 1999a). Such a radiological performance assessment is required by U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Orders on radioactive waste management (DOE 1988a and DOE 1999a). This document defines the scenarios that will be used for the next update of the PA that is scheduled to be issued in 2001. Since the previous performance assessment (Mann 1998) was issued, considerable additional data on waste form behavior and site-specific soil geotechnical properties have been collected. In addition, the 2001 ILAW PA will benefit from improved computer models and the experience gained from the previous performance assessment. However, the scenarios (that is, the features, events, and processes analyzed in the Performance assessment) for the next PA are very similar to the ones in the 1998 PA.

  4. Structured performance assessment in three pediatric emergency scenarios: a validation study.

    PubMed

    Schmutz, Jan; Manser, Tanja; Keil, Julia; Heimberg, Ellen; Hoffmann, Florian

    2015-06-01

    To develop and validate 3 performance evaluation checklists (PECs) for systematic performance assessment in 3 clinical scenarios: cardiopulmonary arrest, dyspnea with oxygen desaturation after intubation, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The 3 PECs were developed using an integrative approach and used to rate 50 training sessions in a simulator environment by different raters. Construct validity was tested by correlating the checklist scores with external constructs (ie, global rating, team experience level, and time to action). Further interrater reliability was tested for all 3 PECs. The PECs for the desaturation and cardiopulmonary arrest scenarios were valid and reliable, whereas the PEC for RSV had limited validity and reliability. For 2 pediatric emergencies, the PEC is a valid and reliable tool for systematic performance assessment. The unsatisfactory results for the PEC for RSV may be related to limitations of the simulation setting and require further investigation. Structured assessment of clinical performance can augment feedback on technical performance aspects and is essential for training purposes as well as for research. Only reliable and valid performance measures will allow medical educators to accurately evaluate the behavioral effects of training interventions and further enhance the quality of patient care. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. On the Performance of Video Quality Assessment Metrics under Different Compression and Packet Loss Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Martínez-Rach, Miguel O.; Piñol, Pablo; López, Otoniel M.; Perez Malumbres, Manuel; Oliver, José; Calafate, Carlos Tavares

    2014-01-01

    When comparing the performance of video coding approaches, evaluating different commercial video encoders, or measuring the perceived video quality in a wireless environment, Rate/distortion analysis is commonly used, where distortion is usually measured in terms of PSNR values. However, PSNR does not always capture the distortion perceived by a human being. As a consequence, significant efforts have focused on defining an objective video quality metric that is able to assess quality in the same way as a human does. We perform a study of some available objective quality assessment metrics in order to evaluate their behavior in two different scenarios. First, we deal with video sequences compressed by different encoders at different bitrates in order to properly measure the video quality degradation associated with the encoding system. In addition, we evaluate the behavior of the quality metrics when measuring video distortions produced by packet losses in mobile ad hoc network scenarios with variable degrees of network congestion and node mobility. Our purpose is to determine if the analyzed metrics can replace the PSNR while comparing, designing, and evaluating video codec proposals, and, in particular, under video delivery scenarios characterized by bursty and frequent packet losses, such as wireless multihop environments. PMID:24982988

  6. Performance Analysis of Ad Hoc Routing Protocols in City Scenario for VANET

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, Sanjoy; Raw, Ram Shringar; Das, Indrani

    2011-12-01

    In this paper, performance analysis of Location Aided Routing (LAR), AODV and DSR protocol in city scenarios has been done. The mobility model considered is Manhattan model. This mobility model used to emulate the movement pattern of nodes i.e., vehicles on streets defined by maps. Our objective is to provide a comparative analysis among LAR, AODV and DSR protocol in city scenarios in Vehicular Ad hoc Networks. The simulation work has been conducted using the Glomosim 2.03 simulator. The results show that LAR1 protocol achieves maximum packet delivery ratio is 100% in the sparsely populated network. The delay is maximum in AODV 121.88 ms when the number of node is 10 in the network. The results show that LAR1 outperform DSR and AODV in term of packet delivery ratio and end to end delay.

  7. Saltstone Disposal Facility Closure Cap Configuration and Degradation Base Case: Institutional Control to Pine Forest Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Phifer, M.A.

    2004-03-19

    The Performance Assessment (PA) for the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) is currently under revision. As part of the PA revision and as documented herein, the closure cap configuration has been reevaluated and closure cap degradation mechanisms and their impact upon infiltration through the closure cap have been evaluated for the institutional control to pine forest, land use scenario. This land use scenario is considered the base case land use scenario. This scenario assumes a 100-year institutional control period following final SDF closure during which the closure cap is maintained. At the end of institutional control, it is assumed that a pine forest succeeds the cap's original bamboo cover. Infiltration through the upper hydraulic barrier layer of the closure cap as determined by this evaluation will be utilized as the infiltration input to subsequent PORFLOW vadose zone contaminant transport modeling, which will also be performed as part of the PA revision. The impacts of pine forest succession, erosion, and colloidal clay migration as degradation mechanisms on the hydraulic properties of the closure cap layers over time have been estimated and the resulting infiltration through the closure cap has been evaluated. The primary changes caused by the degradation mechanisms that result in increased infiltration are the formation of holes in the upper GCL by pine forest succession and the reduction in the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the drainage layers due to colloidal clay migration into the layers. Erosion can also result in significant increases in infiltration if it causes the removal of soil layers, which provide water storage for the promotion of evapotranspiration. For this scenario, infiltration through the upper GCL was estimated at approximately 0.29 inches/year under initial intact conditions, it increased to approximately 11.6 inches/year at year 1000 in nearly a linear fashion, and it approached an asymptote of around 14.1 inches/year at year

  8. Goal-Based Scenarios and the Problem of Situated Learning: A Commentary on Andersen Consulting's Design of Goal-Based Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collins, Allan

    1994-01-01

    Discusses principles of goal-based scenario (GBS) learning environments based on an examination of situated and unsituated knowledge. Topics addressed include flexibility; learning strategies; transfer of training; motivation; retention; and the use of GBS for professional development courses. (seven references) (LRW)

  9. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

    PubMed

    Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

    2011-01-07

    No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the

  10. A Scenario-Based Dieting Self-Efficacy Scale: The DIET-SE

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stich, Christine; Knauper, Barbel; Tint, Ami

    2009-01-01

    The article discusses a scenario-based dieting self-efficacy scale, the DIET-SE, developed from dieter's inventory of eating temptations (DIET). The DIET-SE consists of items that describe scenarios of eating temptations for a range of dieting situations, including high-caloric food temptations. Four studies assessed the psychometric properties of…

  11. Multilingual and Multicultural Task-Based Learning Scenarios: A Pilot Study from the MAGICC Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Álvarez, Inma; Pérez-Cavana, María Luisa

    2015-01-01

    In this article we report on the results of a pilot study on the use of task-based multilingual and multicultural professional scenarios for higher education teachers and learners at BA and MA level. The scenarios reflect new learning outcomes and assessment criteria for the presently under-conceptualised domain of communication in multilingual…

  12. Multilingual and Multicultural Task-Based Learning Scenarios: A Pilot Study from the MAGICC Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Álvarez, Inma; Pérez-Cavana, María Luisa

    2015-01-01

    In this article we report on the results of a pilot study on the use of task-based multilingual and multicultural professional scenarios for higher education teachers and learners at BA and MA level. The scenarios reflect new learning outcomes and assessment criteria for the presently under-conceptualised domain of communication in multilingual…

  13. A Problem-Based Learning Scenario That Can Be Used in Science Teacher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sezgin Selçuk, Gamze

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to introduce a problem-based learning (PBL) scenario that elementary school science teachers in middle school (5th-8th grades) can use in their in-service training. The scenario treats the subjects of heat, temperature and thermal expansion within the scope of the 5th and 6th grade science course syllabi and has been…

  14. A Scenario-Based Dieting Self-Efficacy Scale: The DIET-SE

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stich, Christine; Knauper, Barbel; Tint, Ami

    2009-01-01

    The article discusses a scenario-based dieting self-efficacy scale, the DIET-SE, developed from dieter's inventory of eating temptations (DIET). The DIET-SE consists of items that describe scenarios of eating temptations for a range of dieting situations, including high-caloric food temptations. Four studies assessed the psychometric properties of…

  15. A Problem-Based Learning Scenario That Can Be Used in Science Teacher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sezgin Selçuk, Gamze

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to introduce a problem-based learning (PBL) scenario that elementary school science teachers in middle school (5th-8th grades) can use in their in-service training. The scenario treats the subjects of heat, temperature and thermal expansion within the scope of the 5th and 6th grade science course syllabi and has been…

  16. Microalgae-based biodiesel: a multicriteria analysis of the production process using realistic scenarios.

    PubMed

    Torres, Carmen M; Ríos, Sergio D; Torras, Carles; Salvadó, Joan; Mateo-Sanz, Josep M; Jiménez, Laureano

    2013-11-01

    Microalgae-based biodiesel has several benefits over other resources such as less land use, potential cultivation in non-fertile locations, faster growth and especially a high lipid-to-biodiesel yield. Nevertheless, the environmental and economic behavior for high scale production depends on several variables that must be addressed in the scale-up procedure. In this sense, rigorous modeling and multicriteria evaluation are performed in order to achieve optimal topology for third generation biodiesel production. Different scenarios and the most promising technologies tested at pilot scale are assessed. Besides, the sensitivity analysis allows the detection of key operating variables and assumptions that have a direct effect on the lipid content. The deviation of these variables may lead to an erroneous estimation of the scale-up performance of the technology reviewed in the microalgae-based biodiesel process. The modeling and evaluation of different scenarios of the harvesting, oil extraction and transesterification help to identify greener and cheaper alternatives. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehta, V. K.; Aslam, O.; Dale, L.; Miller, N.; Purkey, D.

    2010-12-01

    Cities in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa, at the same time that their water resource is threatened by domestic waste and industrial pollution. Urban centers use local springs, wetlands and Lake Victoria as source waters. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three pilot towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Their current populations are 100,000, 70,000 and 200,000 respectively. Demand coverage is ~70% in Masaka and Bukoba, and less than 50% in Kisii. IWRM models for each town were calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios upto 2050. In Masaka, flow and climate data were available to calibrate a runoff model to simulate streamflow at water intake. In Masaka, without considering climate change, the system is infrastructure-limited and not water availability (hydrology) limited until 2035, under projected population growth of 2.17%. Under a wet climate scenario as projected by GCM’s for the LV region, the current wetland source could supply all expected demands until 2050. Even under a drought scenario, the wetland could supply all demand until 2032, if the supply infrastructure is updated at an estimated cost of USD 10.8 million. However, demand targets can only be met at the expense of almost no water returning to the wetland downstream of the intake by 2035, unless substantial investments

  18. Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

    Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

  19. Optimizing performance of hybrid FSO/RF networks in realistic dynamic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llorca, Jaime; Desai, Aniket; Baskaran, Eswaran; Milner, Stuart; Davis, Christopher

    2005-08-01

    Hybrid Free Space Optical (FSO) and Radio Frequency (RF) networks promise highly available wireless broadband connectivity and quality of service (QoS), particularly suitable for emerging network applications involving extremely high data rate transmissions such as high quality video-on-demand and real-time surveillance. FSO links are prone to atmospheric obscuration (fog, clouds, snow, etc) and are difficult to align over long distances due the use of narrow laser beams and the effect of atmospheric turbulence. These problems can be mitigated by using adjunct directional RF links, which provide backup connectivity. In this paper, methodologies for modeling and simulation of hybrid FSO/RF networks are described. Individual link propagation models are derived using scattering theory, as well as experimental measurements. MATLAB is used to generate realistic atmospheric obscuration scenarios, including moving cloud layers at different altitudes. These scenarios are then imported into a network simulator (OPNET) to emulate mobile hybrid FSO/RF networks. This framework allows accurate analysis of the effects of node mobility, atmospheric obscuration and traffic demands on network performance, and precise evaluation of topology reconfiguration algorithms as they react to dynamic changes in the network. Results show how topology reconfiguration algorithms, together with enhancements to TCP/IP protocols which reduce the network response time, enable the network to rapidly detect and act upon link state changes in highly dynamic environments, ensuring optimized network performance and availability.

  20. A quantile-based scenario analysis approach to biomass supply chain optimization under uncertainty

    DOE PAGES

    Zamar, David S.; Gopaluni, Bhushan; Sokhansanj, Shahab; ...

    2016-11-21

    Supply chain optimization for biomass-based power plants is an important research area due to greater emphasis on renewable power energy sources. Biomass supply chain design and operational planning models are often formulated and studied using deterministic mathematical models. While these models are beneficial for making decisions, their applicability to real world problems may be limited because they do not capture all the complexities in the supply chain, including uncertainties in the parameters. This study develops a statistically robust quantile-based approach for stochastic optimization under uncertainty, which builds upon scenario analysis. We apply and evaluate the performance of our approach tomore » address the problem of analyzing competing biomass supply chains subject to stochastic demand and supply. Finally, the proposed approach was found to outperform alternative methods in terms of computational efficiency and ability to meet the stochastic problem requirements.« less

  1. A quantile-based scenario analysis approach to biomass supply chain optimization under uncertainty

    SciTech Connect

    Zamar, David S.; Gopaluni, Bhushan; Sokhansanj, Shahab; Newlands, Nathaniel K.

    2016-11-21

    Supply chain optimization for biomass-based power plants is an important research area due to greater emphasis on renewable power energy sources. Biomass supply chain design and operational planning models are often formulated and studied using deterministic mathematical models. While these models are beneficial for making decisions, their applicability to real world problems may be limited because they do not capture all the complexities in the supply chain, including uncertainties in the parameters. This study develops a statistically robust quantile-based approach for stochastic optimization under uncertainty, which builds upon scenario analysis. We apply and evaluate the performance of our approach to address the problem of analyzing competing biomass supply chains subject to stochastic demand and supply. Finally, the proposed approach was found to outperform alternative methods in terms of computational efficiency and ability to meet the stochastic problem requirements.

  2. Construct and face validity of the educational computer-based environment (ECE) assessment scenarios for basic endoneurosurgery skills.

    PubMed

    Cagiltay, Nergiz Ercil; Ozcelik, Erol; Sengul, Gokhan; Berker, Mustafa

    2017-04-07

    In neurosurgery education, there is a paradigm shift from time-based training to criterion-based model for which competency and assessment becomes very critical. Even virtual reality simulators provide alternatives to improve education and assessment in neurosurgery programs and allow for several objective assessment measures, there are not many tools for assessing the overall performance of trainees. This study aims to develop and validate a tool for assessing the overall performance of participants in a simulation-based endoneurosurgery training environment. A training program was developed in two levels: endoscopy practice and beginning surgical practice based on four scenarios. Then, three experiments were conducted with three corresponding groups of participants (Experiment 1, 45 (32 beginners, 13 experienced), Experiment 2, 53 (40 beginners, 13 experienced), and Experiment 3, 26 (14 novices, 12 intermediate) participants). The results analyzed to understand the common factors among the performance measurements of these experiments. Then, a factor capable of assessing the overall skill levels of surgical residents was extracted. Afterwards, the proposed measure was tested to estimate the experience levels of the participants. Finally, the level of realism of these educational scenarios was assessed. The factor formed by time, distance, and accuracy on simulated tasks provided an overall performance indicator. The prediction correctness was very high for the beginners than the one for experienced surgeons in Experiments 1 and 2. When non-dominant hand is used in a surgical procedure-based scenario, skill levels of surgeons can be better predicted. The results indicate that the scenarios in Experiments 1 and 2 can be used as an assessment tool for the beginners, and scenario-2 in Experiment 3 can be used as an assessment tool for intermediate and novice levels. It can be concluded that forming the balance between perceived action capacities and skills is

  3. Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues.

    SciTech Connect

    Banano, E.J.; Baca, R.G.

    1995-08-01

    The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ``scenario approach,`` while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ``ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ``scenario`` and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository.

  4. Accessing technical data bases using STDS: A collection of scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hardgrave, W. T.

    1975-01-01

    A line by line description is given of sessions using the set-theoretic data system (STDS) to interact with technical data bases. The data bases contain data from actual applications at NASA Langley Research Center. The report is meant to be a tutorial document that accompanies set processing in a network environment.

  5. Mannich Bases: An Important Pharmacophore in Present Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Sharma, Neha; Kajal, Anu; Saini, Vipin

    2014-01-01

    Mannich bases are the end products of Mannich reaction and are known as beta-amino ketone carrying compounds. Mannich reaction is a carbon-carbon bond forming nucleophilic addition reaction and is a key step in synthesis of a wide variety of natural products, pharmaceuticals, and so forth. Mannich reaction is important for the construction of nitrogen containing compounds. There is a number of aminoalkyl chain bearing Mannich bases like fluoxetine, atropine, ethacrynic acid, trihexyphenidyl, and so forth with high curative value. The literature studies enlighten the fact that Mannich bases are very reactive and recognized to possess potent diverse activities like anti-inflammatory, anticancer, antifilarial, antibacterial, antifungal, anticonvulsant, anthelmintic, antitubercular, analgesic, anti-HIV, antimalarial, antipsychotic, antiviral activities and so forth. The biological activity of Mannich bases is mainly attributed to α, β-unsaturated ketone which can be generated by deamination of hydrogen atom of the amine group. PMID:25478226

  6. Scenario-Based Systems Engineering Application to Mine Warfare

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-12-01

    threshold; will jeopardize program success Plots of the likelihood and consequence are regularly plotted on a “Risk Cube ” using a scale of 1–5...minefield percent clearance. A tailored systems engineering approach based on a modified SE “Vee” model was utilized to identify stakeholder requirements...Clearance Rate Sustained and minefield percent clearance. A tailored systems engineering approach based on a modified SE “Vee” model was utilized to identify

  7. Based on user interest level of modeling scenarios and browse content

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Yang

    2017-08-01

    User interest modeling is the core of personalized service, taking into account the impact of situational information on user preferences, the user behavior days of financial information. This paper proposes a method of user interest modeling based on scenario information, which is obtained by calculating the similarity of the situation. The user's current scene of the approximate scenario set; on the "user - interest items - scenarios" three-dimensional model using the situation pre-filtering method of dimension reduction processing. View the content of the user interested in the theme, the analysis of the page content to get each topic of interest keywords, based on the level of vector space model user interest. The experimental results show that the user interest model based on the scenario information is within 9% of the user's interest prediction, which is effective.

  8. Mission-Based Scenario Research: Experimental Design and Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-08-10

    with Army Reserach Lab; DCS Corporation, Alexandria, Va and Warren, Mi 14. ABSTRACT In this paper , we discuss a neuroimaging experiment that...Development and Engineering Center Warren, MI Kelvin S. Oie, PhD Army Research Laboratory Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD ABSTRACT In this paper , we...BCIT), a class of neurotechnologies, that aim to improve task performance by incorporating measures of brain activity to optimize the

  9. Advance yield markings and drivers’ performance in response to multiple-threat scenarios at mid-block crosswalks

    PubMed Central

    Fisher, Donald; Garay-Vega, Lisandra

    2012-01-01

    This study compares, on a simulator, drivers’ performance (eye fixations and yielding behavior) at marked mid-block crosswalks in multi-threat scenarios when the crosswalks have advance yield markings and pedestrian crosswalk prompt signs versus their performance in such scenarios when the crosswalks have standard markings. Advance yield markings and prompt signs in multi-threat scenarios lead to changes in drivers’ behaviors which are likely to reduce pedestrian–vehicle conflicts, including increases in the likelihood that the driver glances towards the pedestrian, increases in the distance at which the first glance towards the pedestrian is taken, and increases the likelihood of yielding to the pedestrian. PMID:22062334

  10. River discharge and flood inundation over the Amazon based on IPCC AR5 scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paiva, Rodrigo; Sorribas, Mino; Jones, Charles; Carvalho, Leila; Melack, John; Bravo, Juan Martin; Beighley, Edward

    2015-04-01

    Climate change and related effects over the hydrologic regime of the Amazon River basin could have major impacts over human and ecological communities, including issues with transportation, flood vulnerability, fisheries and hydropower generation. We examined future changes in discharge and floodplain inundation within the Amazon River basin. We used the hydrological model MGB-IPH (Modelo de Grandes Bacias - Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas) coupled with a 1D river hydrodynamic model simulating water storage over the floodplains. The model was forced using satellite based precipitation from the TRMM 3B42 dataset, and it had a good performance when validated against discharge and stage measurements as well as remotely sensed data, including radar altimetry-based water levels, gravity anomaly-based terrestrial water storage and flood inundation extent. Future scenarios of precipitation and other relevant climatic variables for the 2070 to 2100 time period were taken from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The climate models were chosen based on their ability to represent the main aspects of recent (1970 to 2000) Amazon climate. A quantile-quantile bias removal procedure was applied to climate model precipitation to mitigate unreliable predictions. The hydrologic model was then forced using past observed climate data altered by delta change factors based on the past and future climate models aiming to estimate projected discharge and floodplain inundation in climate change scenario at several control points in the basin. The climate projections present large uncertainty, especially the precipitation rate, and predictions using different climate models do not agree on the sign of changes on total Amazon flood extent or discharge along the main stem of the Amazon River. However, analyses of results at different regions indicate an increase

  11. Scenario-Based Programming, Usability-Oriented Perception

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alexandron, Giora; Armoni, Michal; Gordon, Michal; Harel, David

    2014-01-01

    In this article, we discuss the possible connection between the programming language and the paradigm behind it, and programmers' tendency to adopt an external or internal perspective of the system they develop. Based on a qualitative analysis, we found that when working with the visual, interobject language of live sequence charts (LSC),…

  12. Empirical Data Sets for Agent Based Modeling of Crowd Scenarios

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-08-06

    Conclusion 2UNCLASSIFIED- Approved for Public Release Crowd Research • Large numbers • Heterogeneous • Individual Actors • Interdependence • Language ... Barriers • Empirical testing is difficult • Simulations require models based on real data, otherwise they are fiction 3UNCLASSIFIED- Approved for

  13. A Scenario-Based Technique for Developing SOA Technical Governance

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-06-01

    18  Figure 5:  CBDi-SAE SOA Governance Framework 19  Figure 6:  IBM SOA Governance and Management Method 20  Figure 7:  ITIL Core Framework 21...organizations, even if they are not SOA specific, such as the Information Technol- ogy Infrastructure Library ( ITIL ) [10] These frameworks can be very...based on a standard or a widely recommended approach such as ITIL , one custom-built for the organization, or a hybrid of all of the preceding. For

  14. Critical outcomes: clinical and team performance across acute illness scenarios in emergency departments of critical access hospitals.

    PubMed

    Coleman, Nana Ekua; Baker, David; Gallo, Jonathan; Slonim, Anthony D

    2012-01-01

    In their provision of acute care services, emergency department (ED) providers in critical access hospitals (CAHs) are uniquely challenged by limitations in personnel, facility resources, and available expertise. We sought to define the impact of team behaviors among ED staff in CAHs on clinical performance by studying the relationship between team and clinical performance scores across 100 simulated scenarios. Team and clinical performance scores were calculated for each scenario using standardized checklists to quantify goal achievement and aggregated across teams and scenario types. These scores were compared using bivariate analysis and correlated with clinical and team performance outcomes using Pearson's correlation (r coefficient). There was a positive correlation between team and clinical performance across all scenarios; the relationship was statistically significant (p<.05) in 3 scenarios: acute coronary syndrome (r=.69; p=.027); abdominal aortic aneurysm (r=.77; p=.009); and nonaccidental trauma (r=.75; p=.013). The wide correlation between clinical and team performance may be a function of the critical care event itself or the unique characteristics of CAHs that make them more vulnerable when faced with high acuity, complex, and infrequently encountered clinical scenarios. © 2011 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

  15. Ontology-based Software for Generating Scenarios for Characterizing Searches for Nuclear Materials

    SciTech Connect

    Ward, Richard C; Sorokine, Alexandre; Schlicher, Bob G; Wright, Michael C; Kruse, Kara L

    2011-01-01

    A software environment was created in which ontologies are used to significantly expand the number and variety of scenarios for special nuclear materials (SNM) detection based on a set of simple generalized initial descriptions. A framework was built that combined advanced reasoning from ontologies with geographical and other data sources to generate a much larger list of specific detailed descriptions from a simple initial set of user-input variables. This presentation shows how basing the scenario generation on a process of inferencing from multiple ontologies, including a new SNM Detection Ontology (DO) combined with data extraction from geodatabases, provided the desired significant variability of scenarios for testing search algorithms, including unique combinations of variables not previously expected. The various components of the software environment and the resulting scenarios generated will be discussed.

  16. ABM and GIS-based multi-scenarios volcanic evacuation modelling of Merapi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jumadi, Carver, Steve; Quincey, Duncan

    2016-05-01

    Conducting effective evacuation is one of the successful keys to deal with such crisis. Therefore, a plan that considers the probability of the spatial extent of the hazard occurrences is needed. Likewise, the evacuation plan in Merapi is already prepared before the eruption on 2010. However, the plan could not be performed because the eruption magnitude was bigger than it was predicted. In this condition, the extent of the hazardous area was increased larger than the prepared hazard model. Managing such unpredicted situation need adequate information that flexible and adaptable to the current situation. Therefore, we applied an Agent-based Model (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) using multi-scenarios hazard model to support the evacuation management. The methodology and the case study in Merapi is provided.

  17. Elements of Scenario-Based Learning on Suicidal Patient Care Using Real-Time Video.

    PubMed

    Lu, Chuehfen; Lee, Hueying; Hsu, Shuhui; Shu, Inmei

    2016-01-01

    This study aims understanding of students' learning experiences when receiving scenario-based learning combined with real-time video. Videos that recorded student nurses intervention with a suicidal standardized patient (SP) were replayed immediately as teaching materials. Videos clips and field notes from ten classes were analysed. Investigators and method triangulation were used to boost the robustness of the study. Three key elements, emotional involvement, concretizing of the teaching material and substitute learning were identified. Emotions were evoked among the SP, the student performer and the students who were observing, thus facilitating a learning effect. Concretizing of the teaching material refers to students were able to focus on the discussions using visual and verbal information. Substitute learning occurred when the students watching the videos, both the strengths and weaknesses represented were similar to those that would be likely to occur. These key elements explicate their learning experience and suggested a strategic teaching method.

  18. Overview of EAST experiments on the development of high-performance steady-state scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wan, B. N.; Liang, Y. F.; Gong, X. Z.; Li, J. G.; Xiang, N.; Xu, G. S.; Sun, Y. W.; Wang, L.; Qian, J. P.; Liu, H. Q.; Zhang, X. D.; Hu, L. Q.; Hu, J. S.; Liu, F. K.; Hu, C. D.; Zhao, Y. P.; Zeng, L.; Wang, M.; Xu, H. D.; Luo, G. N.; Garofalo, A. M.; Ekedahl, A.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, X. J.; Huang, J.; Ding, B. J.; Zang, Q.; Li, M. H.; Ding, F.; Ding, S. Y.; Lyu, B.; Yu, Y. W.; Zhang, T.; Zhang, Y.; Li, G. Q.; Xia, T. Y.; the EAST Team; Collaborators

    2017-10-01

    The EAST research program aims to demonstrate steady-state long-pulse advanced high-performance H-mode operations with ITER-like poloidal configuration and RF-dominated heating schemes. Since the 2014 IAEA FEC, EAST has been upgraded with all ITER-relevant auxiliary heating and current drive systems, enabling the investigation of plasma profile control by the coupling/integration of various auxiliary heating combinations. Fully non-inductive steady-state H-mode plasma (H 98,y2  >  1.1) was extended over 60 s for the first time with sole RF heating plus good power coupling and impurity and particle control. By means of the 4.6 GHz and 2.45 GHz LHCD systems, H-mode can be obtained and maintained at relatively high density, even up to n e ~ 4.5  ×  1019 m-3, where a current drive effect is still observed. Significant progress has been achieved on EAST, including: (i) demonstration of a steady-state scenario (fully non-inductive with V loop ~ 0.0 V at high β P ~ 1.8 and high-performance in upper single-null (ɛ ~ 1.6) configuration with the tungsten divertor; (ii) discovery of a stationary H-mode regime with no/small ELM using 4.6 GHz LHCD, and; (iii) achievement of ELM suppression in slowly rotating H-mode plasma with n  =  1 and 2 RMP compatible with long-pulse operations. The new advances in scenario development provide an integrated solution in achieving long-pulse steady-state operations on EAST.

  19. Design Scenarios for Web-Based Management of Online Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hepting, Daryl H.; Maciag, Timothy

    The Internet enables access to more information, from a greater variety of perspectives and with greater immediacy, than ever before. A person may be interested in information to become more informed or to coordinate his or her local activities and place them into a larger, more global context. The challenge, as has been noted by many, is to sift through all the information to find what is relevant without becoming overwhelmed. Furthermore, the selected information must be put into an actionable form. The diversity of the Web has important consequences for the variety of ideas that are now available. While people once relied on newspaper editors to shape their view of the world, today's technology creates room for a more democratic approach. Today it is easy to pull news feeds from a variety of sources and aggregate them. It is less easy to push that information to a variety of channels. At a higher level, we might have the goal of collecting all the available information about a certain topic, on a daily basis. There are many new technologies available under the umbrella of Web 2.0, but it can be difficult to use them together for the management of online information. Web-based support for online communication management is the most appropriate choice to address the deficiencies apparent with current technologies. We consider the requirements and potential designs for such information management support, by following an example related to local food.

  20. NPE 2010 results - Independent performance assessment by simulated CTBT violation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, O.; Bönnemann, C.; Ceranna, L.; Gestermann, N.; Hartmann, G.; Plenefisch, T.

    2012-04-01

    For verification of compliance to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) the global International Monitoring System (IMS) is currently being built up. The IMS is designed to detect nuclear explosions through their seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide signature. The IMS data are collected, processed to analysis products, and distributed to the state signatories by the International Data Centre (IDC) in Vienna. The state signatories themselves may operate National Data Centers (NDC) giving technical advice concerning CTBT verification to the government. NDC Preparedness Exercises (NPE) are regularly performed to practice the verification procedures for the detection of nuclear explosions in the framework of CTBT monitoring. The initial focus of the NPE 2010 was on the component of radionuclide detections and the application of Atmospheric Transport Modeling (ATM) for defining the source region of a radionuclide event. The exercise was triggered by fictitious radioactive noble gas detections which were calculated beforehand secretly by forward ATM for a hypothetical xenon release scenario starting at location and time of a real seismic event. The task for the exercise participants was to find potential source events by atmospheric backtracking and to analyze in the following promising candidate events concerning their waveform signals. The study shows one possible way of solution for NPE 2010 as it was performed at German NDC by a team without precedent knowledge of the selected event and release scenario. The ATM Source Receptor Sensitivity (SRS) fields as provided by the IDC were evaluated in a logical approach in order to define probable source regions for several days before the first reported fictitious radioactive xenon finding. Additional information on likely event times was derived from xenon isotopic ratios where applicable. Of the considered seismic events in the potential source region all except one could be identified as

  1. Building the PHARAOH framework using scenario-based design: a set of pandemic decision-making scenarios for continuity of operations in a large municipal public health agency.

    PubMed

    Reeder, Blaine; Demiris, George

    2010-08-01

    Continuity of Operations Planning (COOP) is actions taken before, during and after a disaster to maintain the delivery of an organization's essential services. The application of COOP in public health is necessary to save lives and protect population health when disaster strikes. However, COOP decision-making and COOP decision support technology are under-explored in the public health domain. This work approaches the problem of designing a COOP decision support system for a large municipal public health agency using scenario-based design. Through a series of meetings and informal interviews, we developed a set of 12 scenarios of use for public health decision-making roles during a pandemic. These scenarios were validated as reliable, useful and acceptable by professional public health COOP planners. The results of this work show scenario-based design can be a powerful tool in designing decision support systems for public health leadership information needs during a crisis.

  2. Scenario-based radiation therapy margins for patient setup, organ motion, and particle range uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bokrantz, Rasmus; Fredriksson, Albin

    2017-02-01

    This work extends and validates the scenario-based generalization of margins presented in Fredriksson and Bokrantz (2016 Phys. Med. Biol. 61 2067-82). Scenario-based margins are, in their original form, a method for robust planning under setup uncertainty where the sum of a plan evaluation criterion over a set of scenarios is optimized. The voxelwise penalties in the summands are weighted by a distribution of coefficients defined such that the method is mathematically equivalent to the use of conventional geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. The purpose of this work is to extend scenario-based margins to general types of geometric uncertainty and to validate their use on clinical cases. Specifically, we outline how to incorporate density heterogeneity in the calculation of coefficients and demonstrate the extended method’s ability to safeguard against setup errors, organ motion, and range shifts (and combinations thereof). For a water phantom with a high-density slab partly covering the target, the extended form of scenario-based margins method led to improved target coverage robustness compared to the original method. At most minor differences in robustness were, however, observed between the extended and original method for a prostate and two lung patients, all treated with intensity-modulated proton therapy, yielding evidence that the calculation of weighting coefficients is generally insensitive to tissue heterogeneities. The scenario-based margins were, furthermore, verified to provide a comparable level of robustness to expected value and worst case optimization while circumventing some known shortcomings of these methods.

  3. Scenario-based radiation therapy margins for patient setup, organ motion, and particle range uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Bokrantz, Rasmus; Fredriksson, Albin

    2017-02-21

    This work extends and validates the scenario-based generalization of margins presented in Fredriksson and Bokrantz (2016 Phys. Med. Biol. 61 2067-82). Scenario-based margins are, in their original form, a method for robust planning under setup uncertainty where the sum of a plan evaluation criterion over a set of scenarios is optimized. The voxelwise penalties in the summands are weighted by a distribution of coefficients defined such that the method is mathematically equivalent to the use of conventional geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. The purpose of this work is to extend scenario-based margins to general types of geometric uncertainty and to validate their use on clinical cases. Specifically, we outline how to incorporate density heterogeneity in the calculation of coefficients and demonstrate the extended method's ability to safeguard against setup errors, organ motion, and range shifts (and combinations thereof). For a water phantom with a high-density slab partly covering the target, the extended form of scenario-based margins method led to improved target coverage robustness compared to the original method. At most minor differences in robustness were, however, observed between the extended and original method for a prostate and two lung patients, all treated with intensity-modulated proton therapy, yielding evidence that the calculation of weighting coefficients is generally insensitive to tissue heterogeneities. The scenario-based margins were, furthermore, verified to provide a comparable level of robustness to expected value and worst case optimization while circumventing some known shortcomings of these methods.

  4. Scenario Simulation-Based Assessment of Trip Difficulty for Urban Residents under Rainstorm Waterlogging

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Peng; Zhang, Jiquan; Jiang, Xinyu; Liu, Xingpeng; Bao, Yulong; Sun, Yingyue

    2012-01-01

    In this study, an experiment was performed to assess the trip difficulty for urban residents of different age groups walking in various depths of water, and the data were corroborated with the real urban rainstorm waterlogging scenarios in downtown (Daoli district) Ha-Erbin (China). Mathematical models of urban rainstorm waterlogging were constructed using scenario simulation methods, aided by the GIS spatial analysis technology and hydrodynamic analysis of the waterway systems in the study area. Then these models were used to evaluate the impact of waterlogging on the safety of residents walking in the affected area. Results are summarized as: (1) for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 10 years, three grid regions would have waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at a velocity of 1.5 m/s. Under this scenario, waterlogging would accumulate on traffic roads only in small areas, affecting the safety and mobility of residents walking in the neighborhood; (2) for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 20 years, 13 grids experienced the same waterlogging situation affecting a larger area of the city; (3) for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 50 years, 86 grid regions were affected (waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at 1.5 m/s), and those areas would become impassable for residents. PMID:22829790

  5. Scenario-Based Training on Human Errors Contributing to Security Incidents

    SciTech Connect

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Pond, Daniel J.; Jannotta, Marjorie

    2004-12-06

    Error assessment studies reveal that ''human errors'' are often the consequence of unsuitable environmental factors, ineffective systems, inappropriate task conditions, and individual actions or failures to act. The US Department of Energy (DOE) initiated a program to determine if system-induced human errors could also be contributing factors to security incidents. As the seminal basis for this work, the Enhanced Security Through Human Error Reduction (ESTHER) program at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) produced a contributing factors data set and systems categorization for security related incidents attributed to human error. This material supports the development and delivery of training for security incident inquiry officials. While LANL's initial work focused on classroom training, a collaborative effort between LANL and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has focused on delivering interactive e-Learning training applications based on ESTHER principles. Through training, inquiry officials will understand and be capable of applying the underlying human error control concepts to new or novel situations. Their performance requires a high degree of analysis and judgment to accomplish the associated cognitive and procedural tasks. To meet this requirement, we employed cognitive principles of instructional design to engage the learner in interactive, realistic, problem-centered activity; we constructed scenarios within a guided-discovery framework; and we utilized learner-centered developmental sequences leading to field application. To enhance the relevance and realism of the training experience, we employed 3-D modeling technologies in constructing interactive scenarios. This paper describes the application of cognitive learning principles, use of varied media, and the implementation challenges in developing a technology-rich, interactive security incident training program that includes Web-based training.

  6. Real-time determination of the worst tsunami scenario based on Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furuya, Takashi; Koshimura, Shunichi; Hino, Ryota; Ohta, Yusaku; Inoue, Takuya

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, real-time tsunami inundation forecasting has been developed with the advances of dense seismic monitoring, GPS Earth observation, offshore tsunami observation networks, and high-performance computing infrastructure (Koshimura et al., 2014). Several uncertainties are involved in tsunami inundation modeling and it is believed that tsunami generation model is one of the great uncertain sources. Uncertain tsunami source model has risk to underestimate tsunami height, extent of inundation zone, and damage. Tsunami source inversion using observed seismic, geodetic and tsunami data is the most effective to avoid underestimation of tsunami, but needs to expect more time to acquire the observed data and this limitation makes difficult to terminate real-time tsunami inundation forecasting within sufficient time. Not waiting for the precise tsunami observation information, but from disaster management point of view, we aim to determine the worst tsunami source scenario, for the use of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and mapping, using the seismic information of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) that can be obtained immediately after the event triggered. After an earthquake occurs, JMA's EEW estimates magnitude and hypocenter. With the constraints of earthquake magnitude, hypocenter and scaling law, we determine possible multi tsunami source scenarios and start searching the worst one by the superposition of pre-computed tsunami Green's functions, i.e. time series of tsunami height at offshore points corresponding to 2-dimensional Gaussian unit source, e.g. Tsushima et al., 2014. Scenario analysis of our method consists of following 2 steps. (1) Searching the worst scenario range by calculating 90 scenarios with various strike and fault-position. From maximum tsunami height of 90 scenarios, we determine a narrower strike range which causes high tsunami height in the area of concern. (2) Calculating 900 scenarios that have different strike, dip, length

  7. The centricity of presence in scenario-based high fidelity human patient simulation: a model.

    PubMed

    Dunnington, Renee M

    2015-01-01

    Enhancing immersive presence has been shown to have influence on learning outcomes in virtual types of simulation. Scenario-based human patient simulation, a mixed reality form, may pose unique challenges for inducing the centricity of presence among participants in simulation. A model for enhancing the centricity of presence in scenario-based human patient simulation is presented here. The model represents a theoretical linkage among the interaction of pedagogical, individual, and group factors that influence the centricity of presence among participants in simulation. Presence may have an important influence on the learning experiences and learning outcomes in scenario-based high fidelity human patient simulation. This report is a follow-up to an article published in 2014 by the author where connections were made to the theoretical basis of presence as articulated by nurse scholars. © The Author(s) 2014.

  8. Ship accessibility predictions for the Arctic Ocean based on IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oh, Jai-Ho; Woo, Sumin; Yang, Sin-Il

    2017-02-01

    Changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice, which have resulted from climate change, offer new opportunities to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) for shipping. However, choosing to navigate the Arctic Ocean remains challenging due to the limited accessibility of ships and the balance between economic gain and potential risk. As a result, more precise and detailed information on both weather and sea ice change in the Arctic are required. In this study, a high-resolution global AGCM was used to provide detailed information on the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice. For this simulation, we have simulated the AMIP-type simulation for the present-day climate during 31 years from 1979 to 2009 with observed SST and Sea Ice concentration. For the future climate projection, we have performed the historical climate during 1979-2005 and subsequently the future climate projection during 2010-2099 with mean of four CMIP5 models due to the two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5). First, the AMIP-type simulation was evaluated by comparison with observations from the Hadley Centre sea-ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadlSST) dataset. The model reflects the maximum (in March) and minimum (in September) sea ice extent and annual cycle. Based on this validation, the future sea ice extents show the decreasing trend for both the maximum and minimum seasons and RCP 8.5 shows more sharply decreasing patterns of sea ice than RCP 4.5. Under both scenarios, ships classified as Polar Class (PC) 3 and Open-Water (OW) were predicted to have the largest and smallest number of ship-accessible days (in any given year) for the NSR and NWP, respectively. Based on the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projections suggest that after 2070, PC3 and PC6 vessels will have year-round access across to the Arctic Ocean. In contrast, OW vessels will continue to have a seasonal handicap, inhibiting their ability to pass through the NSR and NWP.

  9. SAFRR AND Physics-Based Scenarios: The Power of Scientifically Credible Stories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.

    2015-12-01

    USGS's SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project and its predecessor, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project, uses the latest earth science to develop scenarios so that communities can improve disaster resilience. SAFRR has created detailed physics-based natural-disaster scenarios of a M7.8 San Andreas earthquake in southern California (ShakeOut), atmospheric-river storms rivaling the Great California Flood of 1862 (ARkStorm), a Tohoku-sized earthquake and tsunami in the eastern Aleutians (SAFRR Tsunami), and now a M7.05 quake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay area (HayWired), as novel ways of providing science for decision making. Each scenario is scientifically plausible, deterministic, and large enough to demand attention but not too large to be believable. The scenarios address interacting hazards, requiring involvement of multiple science disciplines and user communities. The scenarios routinely expose hitherto unknown or ignored vulnerabilities, most often in cascading effects missed when impacts are considered in isolation. They take advantage of story telling to provide decision makers with clear explanations and justifications for mitigation and preparedness actions, and have been used for national-to-local disaster response exercises and planning. Effectiveness is further leveraged by downscaling the scenarios to local levels. For example, although the ARkStorm scenario describes state-scale events and has been used that way by NASA and the Navy, SAFRR also partnered with FEMA to focus on two local areas, Ventura County in the coastal plain and the mountain setting of Lake Tahoe with downstream impacts in Reno, Sparks and Carson City. Downscaling and focused analyses increased usefulness to user communities, drawing new participants into the study. SAFRR scenarios have also motivated new research to answer questions uncovered by stakeholders, closing the circle of co-evolving disaster-science and disaster-response improvements.

  10. A multivariate copula-based framework for dealing with hazard scenarios and failure probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvadori, G.; Durante, F.; De Michele, C.; Bernardi, M.; Petrella, L.

    2016-05-01

    This paper is of methodological nature, and deals with the foundations of Risk Assessment. Several international guidelines have recently recommended to select appropriate/relevant Hazard Scenarios in order to tame the consequences of (extreme) natural phenomena. In particular, the scenarios should be multivariate, i.e., they should take into account the fact that several variables, generally not independent, may be of interest. In this work, it is shown how a Hazard Scenario can be identified in terms of (i) a specific geometry and (ii) a suitable probability level. Several scenarios, as well as a Structural approach, are presented, and due comparisons are carried out. In addition, it is shown how the Hazard Scenario approach illustrated here is well suited to cope with the notion of Failure Probability, a tool traditionally used for design and risk assessment in engineering practice. All the results outlined throughout the work are based on the Copula Theory, which turns out to be a fundamental theoretical apparatus for doing multivariate risk assessment: formulas for the calculation of the probability of Hazard Scenarios in the general multidimensional case (d≥2) are derived, and worthy analytical relationships among the probabilities of occurrence of Hazard Scenarios are presented. In addition, the Extreme Value and Archimedean special cases are dealt with, relationships between dependence ordering and scenario levels are studied, and a counter-example concerning Tail Dependence is shown. Suitable indications for the practical application of the techniques outlined in the work are given, and two case studies illustrate the procedures discussed in the paper.

  11. Microbial Metagenomics Mock Scenario-based Sample Simulation (M3S3).

    PubMed

    Motro, Yair; Moran-Gilad, Jacob

    2017-08-12

    Shotgun sequencing in increasingly applied in clinical microbiology for unbiased culture-independent diagnosis. While software solutions for metagenomics proliferate, integration of metagenomics in clinical care, requires method standardisation and validation. Virtual metagenomics samples could underpin validation by substituting real samples and thus we sought to develop a novel solution for simulation of metagenomics samples based on user-defined clinical scenarios. We designed the Microbial Metagenomics Mock Scenario-based Sample Simulation (M3S3) workflow, which allows users to generate virtual samples from raw reads or assemblies. The M3S3 output is a mock sample in FASTQ or FASTA format. M3S3 was tested by generating virtual samples for ten challenging infectious disease scenarios, involving a background matrix 'spiked' in silico with pathogens including mixtures. Replicate samples (seven per scenario) were used to represent different compositional ratios. Virtual samples were analysed using Taxonomer and Kraken db. The ten challenge scenarios were successfully applied, generating 80 samples. For all tested scenarios, the virtual samples showed sequence compositions as predicted from the user input. Spiked pathogen sequences were identified with the majority of the replicates and most exhibited acceptable abundance (deviation between expected and observed abundance of spiked pathogens), with slight differences observed between software tools. Despite demonstrated proof-of-concept, integration of clinical metagenomics in routine microbiology remains a substantial challenge. M3S3 is capable of producing virtual samples on-demand, simulating a spectrum of clinical diagnostic scenarios of varying complexity. The M3S3 tool can therefore support the development and validation of standardised metagenomics applications. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Scenario-based fitted Q-iteration for adaptive control of water reservoir systems under uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertoni, Federica; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Over recent years, mathematical models have largely been used to support planning and management of water resources systems. Yet, the increasing uncertainties in their inputs - due to increased variability in the hydrological regimes - are a major challenge to the optimal operations of these systems. Such uncertainty, boosted by projected changing climate, violates the stationarity principle generally used for describing hydro-meteorological processes, which assumes time persisting statistical characteristics of a given variable as inferred by historical data. As this principle is unlikely to be valid in the future, the probability density function used for modeling stochastic disturbances (e.g., inflows) becomes an additional uncertain parameter of the problem, which can be described in a deterministic and set-membership based fashion. This study contributes a novel method for designing optimal, adaptive policies for controlling water reservoir systems under climate-related uncertainty. The proposed method, called scenario-based Fitted Q-Iteration (sFQI), extends the original Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm by enlarging the state space to include the space of the uncertain system's parameters (i.e., the uncertain climate scenarios). As a result, sFQI embeds the set-membership uncertainty of the future inflow scenarios in the action-value function and is able to approximate, with a single learning process, the optimal control policy associated to any scenario included in the uncertainty set. The method is demonstrated on a synthetic water system, consisting of a regulated lake operated for ensuring reliable water supply to downstream users. Numerical results show that the sFQI algorithm successfully identifies adaptive solutions to operate the system under different inflow scenarios, which outperform the control policy designed under historical conditions. Moreover, the sFQI policy generalizes over inflow scenarios not directly experienced during the policy design

  13. Improved confinement in highly powered high performance scenarios on DIII-D

    DOE PAGES

    Petrie, Thomas W.; Osborne, Thomas; Fenstermacher, Max E.; ...

    2017-06-09

    DIII-D has recently demonstrated improved energy confinement by injecting neutral deuterium gas into high performance near-double null divertor (DND) plasmas during high power operation. Representative parameters for these plasmas are: q95 = 6, PIN up to 15 MW, H98 = 1.4–1.8, and βN = 2.5–4.0. The ion B xmore » $$\\triangledown$$B direction is away from the primary X-point. While plasma conditions at lower to moderate power input (e.g., 11 MW) are shown to be favorable to successful puff-and-pump radiating divertor applications, particularly when using argon seeds, plasma behavior at higher powers (e.g., ≥14 MW) may make successful puff-and-pump operation more problematic. In contrast to lower powered high performance plasmas, both $$\\tau$$E and βN in the high power cases (≥14 MW) increased and ELM frequency decreased, as density was raised by deuterium gas injection. Improved performance in the higher power plasmas was tied to higher pedestal pressure, which according to peeling-ballooning mode stability analysis using the ELITE code could increase with density along the kink/peeling stability threshold, while the pedestal pressure gradient in the lower power discharges were limited by the ballooning threshold. This resulted in improved fueling efficiency and ≈10% higher $$\\tau$$E and βN than is normally observed in comparable high performance plasmas on DIII-D. Applying the puff-and-pump radiating divertor approach at moderate versus high power input is shown to result in a much different evolution in core and pedestal plasma behavior. In conclusion, we find that injecting deuterium gas into these highly powered DND plasmas may open up a new avenue for achieving elevated plasma performance, including better fueling, but the resulting higher density may also complicate application of a radiating divertor approach to heat flux reduction in present-day tokamaks, if scenarios involving second-harmonic electron cyclotron heating are used.« less

  14. Exposure Scenarios and Unit Dose Factors for the Hanford Immobilized Low Activity Tank Waste Performance Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    RITTMANN, P.D.

    1999-12-29

    Exposure scenarios are defined to identify potential pathways and combinations of pathways that could lead to radiation exposure from immobilized tank waste. Appropriate data and models are selected to permit calculation of dose factors for each exposure

  15. Lung cancer screening: review and performance comparison under different risk scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tota, Joseph E; Ramanakumar, Agnihotram V; Franco, Eduardo L

    2014-02-01

    Lung cancer is currently one of the most common malignant diseases and is responsible for substantial mortality worldwide. Compared with never smokers, former smokers remain at relatively high risk for lung cancer, accounting for approximately half of all newly diagnosed cases in the US. Screening offers former smokers the best opportunity to reduce their risk of advanced stage lung cancer and there is now evidence that annual screening using low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) is effective in preventing mortality. Studies are being conducted to evaluate whether the benefits of LDCT screening outweigh its costs and potential harms and to determine the most appropriate workup for patients with screen-detected lung nodules. Program efficiency would be optimized by targeting high-risk current smokers, but low uptake among this group is a concern. Former smokers may be invited for screening; however, if fewer long-term current smokers and more former smokers with long quit duration elect to attend, this could have very adverse effects on cost and screening test parameters. To illustrate this point, we present three possible screening scenarios with lung cancer prevalence ranging from between 0.62 and 5.0 %. In summary, cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening may be improved if linked to successful smoking cessation programs and if better approaches are developed to reach very high-risk patients, e.g., long-term current smokers or others based on more accurate risk prediction models.

  16. Effect of Engaging Trainees by Assessing Peer Performance: A Randomised Controlled Trial Using Simulated Patient Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Krogh, Charlotte Loumann; Ringsted, Charlotte; Kromann, Charles B.; Rasmussen, Maria Birkvad; Todsen, Tobias; Jørgensen, Rasmus Lundhus; Jacobsen, Rikke Borre; Dahl, Jørgen B.; Konge, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Introduction. The aim of this study was to explore the learning effect of engaging trainees by assessing peer performance during simulation-based training. Methods. Eighty-four final year medical students participated in the study. The intervention involved trainees assessing peer performance during training. Outcome measures were in-training performance and performance, both of which were measured two weeks after the course. Trainees' performances were videotaped and assessed by two expert raters using a checklist that included a global rating. Trainees' satisfaction with the training was also evaluated. Results. The intervention group obtained a significantly higher overall in-training performance score than the control group: mean checklist score 20.87 (SD 2.51) versus 19.14 (SD 2.65) P = 0.003 and mean global rating 3.25 SD (0.99) versus 2.95 (SD 1.09) P = 0.014. Postcourse performance did not show any significant difference between the two groups. Trainees who assessed peer performance were more satisfied with the training than those who did not: mean 6.36 (SD 1.00) versus 5.74 (SD 1.33) P = 0.025. Conclusion. Engaging trainees in the assessment of peer performance had an immediate effect on in-training performance, but not on the learning outcome measured two weeks later. Trainees had a positive attitude towards the training format. PMID:24967383

  17. Pre-Service Teachers' Perspectives on Using Scenario-Based Virtual Worlds in Science Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy-Clark, Shannon

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a study on the current knowledge and attitudes of pre-service teachers on the use of scenario-based multi-user virtual environments in science education. The 28 participants involved in the study were introduced to "Virtual Singapura," a multi-user virtual environment, and completed an open-ended questionnaire.…

  18. Design Process of a Goal-Based Scenario on Computing Fundamentals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beriswill, Joanne Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    In this design case, an instructor developed a goal-based scenario (GBS) for undergraduate computer fundamentals students to apply their knowledge of computer equipment and software. The GBS, entitled the MegaTech Project, presented the students with descriptions of the everyday activities of four persons needing to purchase a computer system. The…

  19. The Effects of Task, Database, and Guidance on Interaction in a Goal-Based Scenario.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bell, Benjamin

    This paper describes the "Sickle Cell Counselor" (SCC), a goal based scenario on permanent display at the Museum of Science and Industry in Chicago. SCC is an exploratory hypermedia simulation program which provides users with a basic understanding of Sickle Cell Anemia. The user of the program plays the role of a genetic counselor, and,…

  20. Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme for Enhancing the English Language Efficiency among Primary School Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tupe, Navnath

    2015-01-01

    This research was undertaken with a view to assess the deficiencies in English language among Primary School Children and to develop Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme (MSBLP) for mastery of English language which required special attention and effective treatment. The experimental study with pre-test, post-test control group design was…

  1. Teaching Early Childhood Education Students through Interactive Scenario-Based Course Design

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sheridan, Kathleen Mary; Kelly, Melissa A.

    2012-01-01

    Early childhood teacher education courses must prepare students for the types of challenges they will face in communities and classrooms after graduation. By adopting a scenario-based approach, teacher educators and others designing online environments can help prepare students for these challenges. Solving complex problems inherent in a…

  2. Adapting Scenario-Based Curriculum Materials to Community College Technical Courses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yarnall, Louise; Toyama, Yukie; Gong, Bowyee; Ayers, Catherine; Ostrander, Jane

    2007-01-01

    Community college educators seek to infuse their workforce courses with more "real world" activities. This 3-year case study examined how 7 instructors and 78 students in California and Texas responded to the changes involved in implementing one type of reform program--the scenario-based curriculum (Schank, 1997). The study shows that…

  3. Assessing the Psychometric Properties of a Scenario-Based Measure of Achievement Guilt and Shame

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Ted; Sharp, Jessica; Alexander, James

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the psychometric properties of the scenario-based Achievement Guilt and Shame Scale (AGSS) were established. The AGSS and scales assessing interpersonal guilt and shame, high standards, overgeneralization, self-criticism, self-esteem, academic self-concept, fear of failure, and tendency to respond in a socially desirable manner were…

  4. THE SCENARIOS APPROACH TO ATTENUATION-BASED REMEDIES FOR INORGANIC AND RADIONUCLIDE CONTAMINANTS

    SciTech Connect

    Vangelas, K.; Rysz, M.; Truex, M.; Brady, P.; Newell, C.; Denham, M.

    2011-08-04

    Guidance materials based on use of conceptual model scenarios were developed to assist evaluation and implementation of attenuation-based remedies for groundwater and vadose zones contaminated with inorganic and radionuclide contaminants. The Scenarios approach is intended to complement the comprehensive information provided in the US EPA's Technical Protocol for Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) of Inorganic Contaminants by providing additional information on site conceptual models and extending the evaluation to consideration of Enhanced Attenuation approaches. The conceptual models incorporate the notion of reactive facies, defined as units with hydrogeochemical properties that are different from surrounding units and that react with contaminants in distinct ways. The conceptual models also incorporate consideration of biogeochemical gradients, defined as boundaries between different geochemical conditions that have been induced by waste disposal or other natural phenomena. Gradients can change over time when geochemical conditions from one area migrate into another, potentially affecting contaminant mobility. A recognition of gradients allows the attenuation-affecting conditions of a site to be projected into the future. The Scenarios approach provides a stepwise process to identify an appropriate category of conceptual model and refine it for a specific site. Scenario materials provide links to pertinent sections in the EPA technical protocol and present information about contaminant mobility and important controlling mechanism for attenuation-based remedies based on the categories of conceptual models.

  5. Pre-Service Teachers' Perspectives on Using Scenario-Based Virtual Worlds in Science Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy-Clark, Shannon

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a study on the current knowledge and attitudes of pre-service teachers on the use of scenario-based multi-user virtual environments in science education. The 28 participants involved in the study were introduced to "Virtual Singapura," a multi-user virtual environment, and completed an open-ended questionnaire.…

  6. Design Process of a Goal-Based Scenario on Computing Fundamentals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beriswill, Joanne Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    In this design case, an instructor developed a goal-based scenario (GBS) for undergraduate computer fundamentals students to apply their knowledge of computer equipment and software. The GBS, entitled the MegaTech Project, presented the students with descriptions of the everyday activities of four persons needing to purchase a computer system. The…

  7. An Ontology-Based Scenario for Teaching the Management of Health Information Systems.

    PubMed

    Jahn, Franziska; Schaaf, Michael; Kahmann, Christian; Tahar, Kais; Kücherer, Christian; Paech, Barbara; Winter, Alfred

    2016-01-01

    The terminology for the management of health information systems is characterized by complexity and polysemy which is both challenging for medical informatics students and practitioners. SNIK, an ontology of information management (IMI) in hospitals, brings together IM concepts from different literature sources. Based on SNIK, we developed a blended learning scenario to teach medical informatics students IM concepts and their relationships. In proof-of-concept teaching units, students found the use of SNIK in teaching and learning motivating and useful. In the next step, the blended learning scenario will be rolled out to an international course for medical informatics students.

  8. Mind Map Our Way into Effective Student Questioning: a Principle-Based Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stokhof, Harry; de Vries, Bregje; Bastiaens, Theo; Martens, Rob

    2017-07-01

    Student questioning is an important self-regulative strategy and has multiple benefits for teaching and learning science. Teachers, however, need support to align student questioning to curricular goals. This study tests a prototype of a principle-based scenario that supports teachers in guiding effective student questioning. In the scenario, mind mapping is used to provide both curricular structure as well as support for student questioning. The fidelity of structure and the process of implementation were verified by interviews, video data and a product collection. Results show that the scenario was relevant for teachers, practical in use and effective for guiding student questioning. Results also suggest that shared responsibility for classroom mind maps contributed to more intensive collective knowledge construction.

  9. Life cycle assessment of Italian citrus-based products. Sensitivity analysis and improvement scenarios.

    PubMed

    Beccali, Marco; Cellura, Maurizio; Iudicello, Maria; Mistretta, Marina

    2010-07-01

    Though many studies concern the agro-food sector in the EU and Italy, and its environmental impacts, literature is quite lacking in works regarding LCA application on citrus products. This paper represents one of the first studies on the environmental impacts of citrus products in order to suggest feasible strategies and actions to improve their environmental performance. In particular, it is part of a research aimed to estimate environmental burdens associated with the production of the following citrus-based products: essential oil, natural juice and concentrated juice from oranges and lemons. The life cycle assessment of these products, published in a previous paper, had highlighted significant environmental issues in terms of energy consumption, associated CO(2) emissions, and water consumption. Starting from such results the authors carry out an improvement analysis of the assessed production system, whereby sustainable scenarios for saving water and energy are proposed to reduce environmental burdens of the examined production system. In addition, a sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of the chosen methods will be performed, giving data on the outcome of the study. Uncertainty related to allocation methods, secondary data sources, and initial assumptions on cultivation, transport modes, and waste management is analysed. The results of the performed analyses allow stating that every assessed eco-profile is differently influenced by the uncertainty study. Different assumptions on initial data and methods showed very sensible variations in the energy and environmental performances of the final products. Besides, the results show energy and environmental benefits that clearly state the improvement of the products eco-profile, by reusing purified water use for irrigation, using the railway mode for the delivery of final products, when possible, and adopting efficient technologies, as the mechanical vapour recompression, in the pasteurisation and

  10. Scenario Based Approach for Multiple Source Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Sines, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wronna, Martin; Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana

    2015-04-01

    In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal one the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean to the southwest facing the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, a total of five scenarios were selected to assess tsunami impact at the test site. These scenarios correspond to the worst-case credible scenario approach based upon the largest events of the historical and paleo tsunami catalogues. The tsunami simulations from the source area towards the coast is carried out using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. The code solves the non-linear shallow water equations using the discretization and explicit leap-frog finite difference scheme, in a Cartesian or Spherical frame. The initial sea surface displacement is assumed to be equal to the sea bottom deformation that is computed by Okada equations. Both uniform and non-uniform slip conditions are used. The presented results correspond to the models using non-uniform slip conditions. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water) MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawdown, run-up and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gages at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results consist of Aggregate Scenario Maps presented for the different inundation parameters. This work is funded by ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839

  11. A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making.

    PubMed

    Manns, Patricia J; Darrah, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors' curriculum research study. Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1) identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2) literature search; (3) develop scenario framework; and (4) write scenario. Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios - ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation. The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists' reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.

  12. A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

    PubMed Central

    Manns, Patricia J; Darrah, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    Background and purpose Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study. Methods Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1) identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2) literature search; (3) develop scenario framework; and (4) write scenario. Results Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation. Conclusion The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students. PMID:23762009

  13. A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

    PubMed

    Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

    2017-08-18

    Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global

  14. Performance of a Frequency-Hopped Real-Time Remote Control System in a Multiple Access Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cervantes, Frank

    A recent trend is observed in the context of the radio-controlled aircrafts and automobiles within the hobby grade category and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) applications moving to the well-known Industrial, Scientific and Medical (ISM) band. Based on this technological fact, the present thesis evaluates an individual user performance by featuring a multiple-user scenario where several point-to-point co-located real-time Remote Control (RC) applications operate using Frequency Hopping Spread Spectrum (FHSS) as a medium access technique in order to handle interference efficiently. Commercial-off-the-shelf wireless transceivers ready to operate in the ISM band are considered as the operational platform supporting the above-mentioned applications. The impact of channel impairments and of different critical system engineering issues, such as working with real clock oscillators and variable packet duty cycle, are considered. Based on the previous, simulation results allowed us to evaluate the range of variation for those parameters for an acceptable system performance under Multiple Access (MA) environments.

  15. Performance Analysis of IEEE 802.15.6 CSMA/CA Protocol for WBAN Medical Scenario through DTMC Model.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Vivek; Gupta, Bharat

    2016-12-01

    The newly drafted IEEE 802.15.6 standard for Wireless Body Area Networks (WBAN) has been concentrating on a numerous medical and non-medical applications. Such short range wireless communication standard offers ultra-low power consumption with variable data rates from few Kbps to Mbps in, on or around the proximity of the human body. In this paper, the performance analysis of carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance (CSMA/CA) scheme based on IEEE 802.15.6 standard in terms of throughput, reliability, clear channel assessment (CCA) failure probability, packet drop probability, and end-to-end delay has been presented. We have developed a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) to significantly evaluate the performances of IEEE 802.15.6 CSMA/CA under non-ideal channel condition having saturated traffic condition including node wait time and service time. We also visualize that, as soon as the payload length increases the CCA failure probability increases, which results in lower node's reliability. Also, we have calculated the end-to-end delay in order to prioritize the node wait time cause by backoff and retransmission. The user priority (UP) wise DTMC analysis has been performed to show the importance of the standard especially for medical scenario.

  16. Analysis of cloud-based solutions on EHRs systems in different scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fernández-Cardeñosa, Gonzalo; de la Torre-Díez, Isabel; López-Coronado, Miguel; Rodrigues, Joel J P C

    2012-12-01

    Nowadays with the growing of the wireless connections people can access all the resources hosted in the Cloud almost everywhere. In this context, organisms can take advantage of this fact, in terms of e-Health, deploying Cloud-based solutions on e-Health services. In this paper two Cloud-based solutions for different scenarios of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) management system are proposed. We have researched articles published between the years 2005 and 2011 about the implementation of e-Health services based on the Cloud in Medline. In order to analyze the best scenario for the deployment of Cloud Computing two solutions for a large Hospital and a network of Primary Care Health centers have been studied. Economic estimation of the cost of the implementation for both scenarios has been done via the Amazon calculator tool. As a result of this analysis two solutions are suggested depending on the scenario: To deploy a Cloud solution for a large Hospital a typical Cloud solution in which are hired just the needed services has been assumed. On the other hand to work with several Primary Care Centers it's suggested the implementation of a network, which interconnects these centers with just one Cloud environment. Finally it's considered the fact of deploying a hybrid solution: in which EHRs with images will be hosted in the Hospital or Primary Care Centers and the rest of them will be migrated to the Cloud.

  17. An Event-Based Approach to Design a Teamwork Training Scenario and Assessment Tool in Surgery.

    PubMed

    Nguyen, Ngan; Watson, William D; Dominguez, Edward

    2016-01-01

    Simulation is a technique recommended for teaching and measuring teamwork, but few published methodologies are available on how best to design simulation for teamwork training in surgery and health care in general. The purpose of this article is to describe a general methodology, called event-based approach to training (EBAT), to guide the design of simulation for teamwork training and discuss its application to surgery. The EBAT methodology draws on the science of training by systematically introducing training exercise events that are linked to training requirements (i.e., competencies being trained and learning objectives) and performance assessment. The EBAT process involves: Of the 4 teamwork competencies endorsed by the Agency for Healthcare Research Quality and Department of Defense, "communication" was chosen to be the focus of our training efforts. A total of 5 learning objectives were defined based on 5 validated teamwork and communication techniques. Diagnostic laparoscopy was chosen as the clinical context to frame the training scenario, and 29 KSAs were defined based on review of published literature on patient safety and input from subject matter experts. Critical events included those that correspond to a specific phase in the normal flow of a surgical procedure as well as clinical events that may occur when performing the operation. Similar to the targeted KSAs, targeted responses to the critical events were developed based on existing literature and gathering input from content experts. Finally, a 29-item EBAT-derived checklist was created to assess communication performance. Like any instructional tool, simulation is only effective if it is designed and implemented appropriately. It is recognized that the effectiveness of simulation depends on whether (1) it is built upon a theoretical framework, (2) it uses preplanned structured exercises or events to allow learners the opportunity to exhibit the targeted KSAs, (3) it assesses performance, and (4

  18. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lange, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their

  19. Scenario-based stakeholder engagement: incorporating stakeholders preferences into coastal planning for climate change.

    PubMed

    Tompkins, Emma L; Few, Roger; Brown, Katrina

    2008-09-01

    Climate change poses many challenges for ecosystem and resource management. In particular, coastal planners are struggling to find ways to prepare for the potential impacts of future climate change while dealing with immediate pressures. Decisions on how to respond to future risks are complicated by the long time horizons and the uncertainty associated with the distribution of impacts. Existing coastal zone management approaches in the UK either do not adequately incorporate changing stakeholder preferences, or effectively ensure that stakeholders are aware of the trade-offs inherent in any coastal management decision. Using a novel method, scenario-based stakeholder engagement, which brings together stakeholder analysis, climate change management scenarios and deliberative techniques, the necessary trade-offs associated with long term coastal planning are explored. The method is applied to two case studies of coastal planning in Christchurch Bay on the south coast of England and the Orkney Islands off the north coast of Scotland. A range of conflicting preferences exist on the ideal governance structure to manage the coast under different climate change scenarios. In addition, the results show that public understanding of the trade-offs that have to be made is critical in gaining some degree of public support for long term coastal decision-making. We conclude that scenario-based stakeholder engagement is a useful tool to facilitate coastal management planning that takes into account the complexities and challenges of climate change, and could be used in conjunction with existing approaches such as the Shoreline Management Planning process.

  20. Clinical utility of sperm DNA fragmentation testing: practice recommendations based on clinical scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Majzoub, Ahmad; Esteves, Sandro C.; Ko, Edmund; Ramasamy, Ranjith; Zini, Armand

    2016-01-01

    Sperm DNA fragmentation (SDF) has been generally acknowledged as a valuable tool for male fertility evaluation. While its detrimental implications on sperm function were extensively investigated, little is known about the actual indications for performing SDF analysis. This review delivers practice based recommendations on commonly encountered scenarios in the clinic. An illustrative description of the different SDF measurement techniques is presented. SDF testing is recommended in patients with clinical varicocele and borderline to normal semen parameters as it can better select varicocelectomy candidates. High SDF is also linked with recurrent spontaneous abortion (RSA) and can influence outcomes of different assisted reproductive techniques. Several studies have shown some benefit in using testicular sperm rather than ejaculated sperm in men with high SDF, oligozoospermia or recurrent in vitro fertilization (IVF) failure. Infertile men with evidence of exposure to pollutants can benefit from sperm DNA testing as it can help reinforce the importance of lifestyle modification (e.g., cessation of cigarette smoking, antioxidant therapy), predict fertility and monitor the patient’s response to intervention. PMID:28078226

  1. Saltstone Disposal Facility Mechanically Stabilized Earth Vault Closure Cap Degradation Base Case: Institutional Control To Pine Forest Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Phifer, MA

    2004-03-19

    As part of the current Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) Performance Assessment (PA) revision, the closure cap configuration was reevaluated and closure cap degradation mechanisms and their impact upon infiltration through the closure cap was evaluated for the existing SDF concrete vaults (i.e. vaults 1 and 4) for the base case land use scenario (i.e. institutional control to pine forest scenario) and documented in Phifer and Nelson (2003). The closure cap configuration was modified from a compacted kaolin barrier layer concept to a geosynthetic clay layer (GCL) barrier layer concept. The degradation mechanisms developed included pine forest succession, erosion, and colloidal clay migration. These degradation mechanisms resulted in changes in the hydraulic properties of the closure cap layers and resulting increases in infiltration through the closure cap over time.

  2. Active shooter in the emergency department: a scenario-based training approach for healthcare workers.

    PubMed

    Kotora, Joseph G; Clancy, Terry; Manzon, Lauren; Malik, Varun; Louden, Robert J; Merlin, Mark A

    2014-01-01

    An active shooter in the emergency department (ED) presents a significant danger to employees, patients, and visitors. Very little education on this topic exists for healthcare workers. Using didactic and scenario-based training methods, the authors constructed a comprehensive training experience to better prepare healthcare workers for an active shooter. Thirty-two residents, nurses, and medical students participated in a disaster drill onboard a US military base. All were blinded to the scenarios. The study was approved by the institutional review board, and written consent was obtained from all participants. Each participant completed a 10-item pretest developed from the Department of Homeland Security's IS:907 Active Shooter course. Participants were exposed to a single active shooter scenario followed by a didactic lecture on hostage recovery and crisis negotiation. Participants were then exposed to a scenario involving multiple shooters. Many of the participants were held hostage for several hours. The training concluded with a post-test and debrief. Paired Student's t-test determined statistical significance between the pretest and post-test questionnaire scores. Paired Student's t-tests confirmed a statistically significant difference between the pretest and post-test scores for the subjects, as a whole (p < 0.002 [-0.177, -0.041]). There was no difference in scores for nurses (p = 1 [-1.779, 1.779]). The scores for resident physicians (p < 0.01 [-0.192, -0.032]) and medical students (p < 0.01 [-0.334, -0.044]) were found to be significant. Didactic lectures, combined with case-based scenarios, are an effective method to teach healthcare workers how to best manage an active shooter incident.

  3. Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation.

    PubMed

    Kecskes, Csaba

    2002-05-01

    In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter.

  4. Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kecskes, Csaba

    2002-05-01

    In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter.

  5. Improvement of nursing students' learning outcomes through scenario-based skills training.

    PubMed

    Uysal, Nurcan

    2016-08-08

    this study analyzed the influence of scenario-based skills training on students' learning skills. the author evaluated the nursing skills laboratory exam papers of 605 sophomores in nursing programs for seven years. The study determined the common mistakes of students and the laboratory work was designed in a scenario-based format. The effectiveness of this method was evaluated by assessing the number of errors the students committed and their achievement scores in laboratory examinations. This study presents the students' common mistakes in intramuscular and subcutaneous injection and their development of intravenous access skills, included in the nursing skills laboratory examination. an analysis of the students' most common mistakes revealed that the most common was not following the principles of asepsis for all three skills (intramuscular, subcutaneous injection, intravenous access) in the first year of the scenario-based training. The students' exam achievement scores increased gradually, except in the fall semester of the academic year 2009-2010. The study found that the scenario-based skills training reduced students' common mistakes in examinations and enhanced their performance on exams. this method received a positive response from both students and instructors. The scenario-based training is available for use in addition to other skills training methods. en este estudio fue analizada la influencia de la capacitación basada en escenarios en las capacidades de aprendizaje de los alumnos. el autor evaluó los textos de exámenes de laboratorio de habilidades de enfermería producidos por 605 alumnos de segundo año en cursos de enfermería durante siete años. El estudio determinó los errores comunes de los alumnos y el trabajo en laboratorio adoptó el formato basado en escenarios. La eficacia de ese método fue evaluada mediante la cantidad de errores que los alumnos cometieron y sus notas de desempeño en exámenes de laboratorio. Este estudio

  6. Lunar Outpost Life Support Architecture Study Based on a High Mobility Exploration Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lange, Kevin E.; Anderson, Molly S.

    2009-01-01

    As scenarios for lunar surface exploration and habitation continue to evolve within NASA s Constellation program, so must studies of optimal life support system architectures and technologies. This paper presents results of a life support architecture study based on a 2009 NASA scenario known as Scenario 12. Scenario 12 represents a consolidation of ideas from earlier NASA scenarios and includes an outpost near the Lunar South Pole comprised of three larger fixed surface elements and four attached pressurized rovers. The scenario places a high emphasis on surface mobility, with planning assuming that all four crewmembers spend roughly 50% of the time away from the outpost on 3-14 day excursions in two of the pressurized rovers. Some of the larger elements can also be mobilized for longer duration excursions. This emphasis on mobility poses a significant challenge for a regenerative life support system in terms of cost-effective waste collection and resource recovery across multiple elements, including rovers with very constrained infrastructure resources. The current study considers pressurized rovers as part of a distributed outpost life support architecture in both stand-alone and integrated configurations. A range of architectures are examined reflecting different levels of closure and distributed functionality. Different lander propellant scavenging options are also considered involving either initial conversion of residual oxygen and hydrogen propellants to water or initial direct oxygen scavenging. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the sensitivity of results to volatile high-impact mission variables, including the quantity of residual lander propellants available for scavenging, the fraction of crew time away from the outpost on excursions, total extravehicular activity hours, and habitat leakage. Architectures are evaluated by estimating surpluses or deficits of water and oxygen per 180-day mission and differences in fixed and 10-year

  7. Lunar Outpost Life Support Architecture Study Based on a High Mobility Exploration Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lange, Kevin E.; Anderson, Molly S.

    2009-01-01

    As scenarios for lunar surface exploration and habitation continue to evolve within NASA s Constellation program, so must studies of optimal life support system architectures and technologies. This paper presents results of a life support architecture study based on a 2009 NASA scenario known as Scenario 12. Scenario 12 represents a consolidation of ideas from earlier NASA scenarios and includes an outpost near the Lunar South Pole comprised of three larger fixed surface elements and four attached pressurized rovers. The scenario places a high emphasis on surface mobility, with planning assuming that all four crewmembers spend roughly 50% of the time away from the outpost on 3-14 day excursions in two of the pressurized rovers. Some of the larger elements can also be mobilized for longer duration excursions. This emphasis on mobility poses a significant challenge for a regenerative life support system in terms of cost-effective waste collection and resource recovery across multiple elements, including rovers with very constrained infrastructure resources. The current study considers pressurized rovers as part of a distributed outpost life support architecture in both stand-alone and integrated configurations. A range of architectures are examined reflecting different levels of closure and distributed functionality. Different lander propellant scavenging options are also considered involving either initial conversion of residual oxygen and hydrogen propellants to water or initial direct oxygen scavenging. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the sensitivity of results to volatile high-impact mission variables, including the quantity of residual lander propellants available for scavenging, the fraction of crew time away from the outpost on excursions, total extravehicular activity hours, and habitat leakage. Architectures are evaluated by estimating surpluses or deficits of water and oxygen per 180-day mission and differences in fixed and 10-year

  8. Preventive health services implemented by family physicians in Portugal—a cross-sectional study based on two clinical scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Martins, Carlos; Azevedo, Luís Filipe; Santos, Cristina; Sá, Luísa; Santos, Paulo; Couto, Maria; Pereira, Altamiro; Hespanhol, Alberto

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To assess whether Portuguese family physicians perform preventive health services in accordance with scientific evidence, based on the recommendations of the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF). Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Primary healthcare, Portuguese National Health Service. Participants 255 Portuguese family physicians selected by a stratified cluster sampling design were invited to participate in a computer-assisted telephone survey. Outcomes Prevalence of compliance with USPSTF recommendations for screening, given a male and female clinical scenario and a set of proposed medical interventions, including frequency of the intervention and performance in their own daily practice. Results A response rate of 95.7% was obtained (n=244). 98–100% of family physicians answered according to the USPSTF recommendations in most interventions. In the male scenario, the lowest concordance was observed in the evaluation of prostate-specific antigen with 37% of family physicians answering according to the USPSTF recommendations. In the female scenario, the lowest concordance was for cholesterol testing with 2% of family physicians complying. Family physicians younger than 50 years had significantly better compliance scores than older ones (mean 77% vs 72%; p<0.001). Conclusions We found a high degree of agreement with USPSTF recommendations among Portuguese family physicians. However, we also found results suggesting excessive use of some medical interventions, raising concerns related to possible harm associated with overdiagnosis and overtreatment. PMID:24861550

  9. Health care professional workstation: software system construction using DSSA scenario-based engineering process.

    PubMed

    Hufnagel, S; Harbison, K; Silva, J; Mettala, E

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a new method for the evolutionary determination of user requirements and system specifications called scenario-based engineering process (SEP). Health care professional workstations are critical components of large scale health care system architectures. We suggest that domain-specific software architectures (DSSAs) be used to specify standard interfaces and protocols for reusable software components throughout those architectures, including workstations. We encourage the use of engineering principles and abstraction mechanisms. Engineering principles are flexible guidelines, adaptable to particular situations. Abstraction mechanisms are simplifications for management of complexity. We recommend object-oriented design principles, graphical structural specifications, and formal components' behavioral specifications. We give an ambulatory care scenario and associated models to demonstrate SEP. The scenario uses health care terminology and gives patients' and health care providers' system views. Our goal is to have a threefold benefit. (i) Scenario view abstractions provide consistent interdisciplinary communications. (ii) Hierarchical object-oriented structures provide useful abstractions for reuse, understandability, and long term evolution. (iii) SEP and health care DSSA integration into computer aided software engineering (CASE) environments. These environments should support rapid construction and certification of individualized systems, from reuse libraries.

  10. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  11. Matching the Performed Activity on an Educational Platform with a Recommended Pedagogical Scenario: A Multi-Source Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marty, J.; Heraud, J.; Carron, T.; France, L.

    2007-01-01

    The work reported here is in the educational domain and deals specifically with the observation of instrumented pedagogical activities. Our objective is to observe learner behaviour within a web-based learning environment and to understand it. In some cases, this understanding can lead to improve the learning scenario itself. In this article, we…

  12. Representing Instructional Material for Scenario-Based Guided-Discovery Courseware

    SciTech Connect

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Merrill, M. DAVID.; Rice, Douglas M.; Curtis, Darren S.

    2004-12-06

    The focus of this paper is to discuss paradigms for learning that are based on sound principles of human learning and cognition, and to discuss technical challenges that must be overcome in achieving this research goal through instructional system design (ISD) approaches that are cost-effective as well as conformant with today's interactive multimedia instruction standards. Fundamental concepts are to: engage learners to solve real-world problems (progress from simple to complex); relate material to previous experience; demonstrate what is to be learned using interactive, problem-centered activities rather than passive exposure to material; require learners to use their new knowledge to solve problems that demonstrate their knowledge in a relevant applied setting; and guide the learner with feedback and coaching early, then gradually withdraw this support as learning progresses. Many of these principles have been put into practice by employing interactive learning objects as re-usable components of larger, more integrated exercises. A challenge is to make even more extensive use of interactive, scenario-based activities within a guided-discovery framework. Because the design and construction of interactive, scenario-based learning objects and more complex integrated exercises is labor-intensive, this paper explores the use of interactive learning objects and associated representation schema for instructional content to facilitate development of tools for creating scenario-based, guided-discovery courseware.

  13. Scenario-based User Testing to Guide Consumer Health Informatics Design

    PubMed Central

    Zayas-Cabán, Teresa; Marquard, Jenna L.; Radhakrishnan, Kavita; Duffey, Noah; Evernden, Dana L.

    2009-01-01

    For consumer health informatics (CHI) interventions to successfully aid laypeople, the interventions must fit and support their health work. This paper outlines a scenario-based human factors assessment of a disease management CHI intervention. Two student users undertook a patient use case and another user followed a nurse use case. Each user completed pre-specified tasks over a ten-day trial, recorded challenges encountered while utilizing the intervention, and logged daily time spent on each task. Results show the scenario-based user testing approach helps effectively and systematically assess potential physical, cognitive, and macroergonomic challenges for end-users, rate the severity of the challenges, and identify mediation strategies for each challenge. In particular, scenario-based user testing aids in identifying challenges that would be difficult, if not impossible, to detect in a laboratory-based usability study. With this information, CHI interventions can be re-designed and/or supplemented, making the intervention more closely fit end-users’ work. PMID:20351947

  14. Fuzzy Cognitive Map scenario-based medical decision support systems for education.

    PubMed

    Georgopoulos, Voula C; Chouliara, Spyridoula; Stylios, Chrysostomos D

    2014-01-01

    Soft Computing (SC) techniques are based on exploiting human knowledge and experience and they are extremely useful to model any complex decision making procedure. Thus, they have a key role in the development of Medical Decision Support Systems (MDSS). The soft computing methodology of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps has successfully been used to represent human reasoning and to infer conclusions and decisions in a human-like way and thus, FCM-MDSSs have been developed. Such systems are able to assist in critical decision-making, support diagnosis procedures and consult medical professionals. Here a new methodology is introduced to expand the utilization of FCM-MDSS for learning and educational purposes using a scenario-based learning (SBL) approach. This is particularly important in medical education since it allows future medical professionals to safely explore extensive "what-if" scenarios in case studies and prepare for dealing with critical adverse events.

  15. Analyzing Process Data from Game/Scenario-Based Tasks: An Edit Distance Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hao, Jiangang; Shu, Zhan; von Davier, Alina

    2015-01-01

    Students' activities in game/scenario-based tasks (G/SBTs) can be characterized by a sequence of time-stamped actions of different types with different attributes. For a subset of G/SBTs in which only the order of the actions is of great interest, the process data can be well characterized as a string of characters (i.e., action string) if we…

  16. Analyzing Process Data from Game/Scenario-Based Tasks: An Edit Distance Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hao, Jiangang; Shu, Zhan; von Davier, Alina

    2015-01-01

    Students' activities in game/scenario-based tasks (G/SBTs) can be characterized by a sequence of time-stamped actions of different types with different attributes. For a subset of G/SBTs in which only the order of the actions is of great interest, the process data can be well characterized as a string of characters (i.e., action string) if we…

  17. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation.

  18. A Smartphone Camera-Based Indoor Positioning Algorithm of Crowded Scenarios with the Assistance of Deep CNN

    PubMed Central

    Jiao, Jichao; Li, Fei; Deng, Zhongliang; Ma, Wenjing

    2017-01-01

    Considering the installation cost and coverage, the received signal strength indicator (RSSI)-based indoor positioning system is widely used across the world. However, the indoor positioning performance, due to the interference of wireless signals that are caused by the complex indoor environment that includes a crowded population, cannot achieve the demands of indoor location-based services. In this paper, we focus on increasing the signal strength estimation accuracy considering the population density, which is different to the other RSSI-based indoor positioning methods. Therefore, we propose a new wireless signal compensation model considering the population density, distance, and frequency. First of all, the number of individuals in an indoor crowded scenario can be calculated by our convolutional neural network (CNN)-based human detection approach. Then, the relationship between the population density and the signal attenuation is described in our model. Finally, we use the trilateral positioning principle to realize the pedestrian location. According to the simulation and tests in the crowded scenarios, the proposed model increases the accuracy of the signal strength estimation by 1.53 times compared to that without considering the human body. Therefore, the localization accuracy is less than 1.37 m, which indicates that our algorithm can improve the indoor positioning performance and is superior to other RSSI models. PMID:28350357

  19. Measuring Engagement in Later Life Activities: Rasch-Based Scenario Scales for Work, Caregiving, Informal Helping, and Volunteering

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ludlow, Larry H.; Matz-Costa, Christina; Johnson, Clair; Brown, Melissa; Besen, Elyssa; James, Jacquelyn B.

    2014-01-01

    The development of Rasch-based "comparative engagement scenarios" based on Guttman's facet theory and sentence mapping procedures is described. The scenario scales measuring engagement in work, caregiving, informal helping, and volunteering illuminate the lived experiences of role involvement among older adults and offer multiple…

  20. Measuring Engagement in Later Life Activities: Rasch-Based Scenario Scales for Work, Caregiving, Informal Helping, and Volunteering

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ludlow, Larry H.; Matz-Costa, Christina; Johnson, Clair; Brown, Melissa; Besen, Elyssa; James, Jacquelyn B.

    2014-01-01

    The development of Rasch-based "comparative engagement scenarios" based on Guttman's facet theory and sentence mapping procedures is described. The scenario scales measuring engagement in work, caregiving, informal helping, and volunteering illuminate the lived experiences of role involvement among older adults and offer multiple…

  1. Thermal Performance Expectations of the Advanced Stirling Convertor Over a Range of Operating Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reid, Terry V.; Dyson, Rodger W.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives of this work are: (1) Assist the Science Mission Directorate in developing technologies for space missions. (2) Explore the capability of computational modeling to assist in the development of the Advanced Stirling Convertor. (3) Baseline computational simulation with available experimental data of the ASC. (4) Calculate peak external pressure vessel wall temperatures and compare them with anticipated values. (5) Calculated peak magnet temperature inside the ASC over a range of operational scenarios.

  2. Process-based evaluation of the ÖKS15 Austrian climate scenarios: First results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendlik, Thomas; Truhetz, Heimo; Jury, Martin; Maraun, Douglas

    2017-04-01

    The climate scenarios for Austria from the ÖKS15 project consists of 13 downscaled and bias-corrected RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX project. This dataset is meant for the broad public and is now available at the central national archive for climate data (CCCA Data Center). Because of this huge public outreach it is absolutely necessary to objectively discuss the limitations of this dataset and to publish these limitations, which should also be understood by a non-scientific audience. Even though systematical climatological biases have been accounted for by the Scaled-Distribution-Mapping (SDM) bias-correction method, it is not guaranteed that the model biases have been removed for the right reasons. If climate scenarios do not get the patterns of synoptic variability right, biases will still prevail in certain weather patterns. Ultimately this will have consequences for the projected climate change signals. In this study we derive typical weather types in the Alpine Region based on patterns from mean sea level pressure from ERA-INTERIM data and check the occurrence of these synoptic phenomena in EURO-CORDEX data and their corresponding driving GCMs. Based on these weather patterns we analyze the remaining biases of the downscaled and bias-corrected scenarios. We argue that such a process-based evaluation is not only necessary from a scientific point of view, but can also help the broader public to understand the limitations of downscaled climate scenarios, as model errors can be interpreted in terms of everyday observable weather.

  3. Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, Nathan J.; Wilson, Rick I.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Peters, Jeff; MacMullan, Ed; Krebs, Tessa; Shoaf, Kimberley; Miller, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    Well-executed evacuations are key to minimizing loss of life from tsunamis, yet they also disrupt communities and business productivity in the process. Most coastal communities implement evacuations based on a previously delineated maximum-inundation zone that integrates zones from multiple tsunami sources. To support consistent evacuation planning that protects lives but attempts to minimize community disruptions, we explore the implications of scenario-based evacuation procedures and use the California (USA) coastline as our case study. We focus on the land in coastal communities that is in maximum-evacuation zones, but is not expected to be flooded by a tsunami generated by a Chilean earthquake scenario. Results suggest that a scenario-based evacuation could greatly reduce the number of residents and employees that would be advised to evacuate for 24–36 h (178,646 and 159,271 fewer individuals, respectively) and these reductions are concentrated primarily in three counties for this scenario. Private evacuation spending is estimated to be greater than public expenditures for operating shelters in the area of potential over-evacuations ($13 million compared to $1 million for a 1.5-day evacuation). Short-term disruption costs for businesses in the area of potential over-evacuation are approximately $122 million for a 1.5-day evacuation, with one-third of this cost associated with manufacturing, suggesting that some disruption costs may be recouped over time with increased short-term production. There are many businesses and organizations in this area that contain individuals with limited mobility or access and functional needs that may have substantial evacuation challenges. This study demonstrates and discusses the difficulties of tsunami-evacuation decision-making for relatively small to moderate events faced by emergency managers, not only in California but in coastal communities throughout the world.

  4. A Tool for Model-Based Generation of Scenario-driven Electric Power Load Profiles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rozek, Matthew L.; Donahue, Kenneth M.; Ingham, Michel D.; Kaderka, Justin D.

    2015-01-01

    Power consumption during all phases of spacecraft flight is of great interest to the aerospace community. As a result, significant analysis effort is exerted to understand the rates of electrical energy generation and consumption under many operational scenarios of the system. Previously, no standard tool existed for creating and maintaining a power equipment list (PEL) of spacecraft components that consume power, and no standard tool existed for generating power load profiles based on this PEL information during mission design phases. This paper presents the Scenario Power Load Analysis Tool (SPLAT) as a model-based systems engineering tool aiming to solve those problems. SPLAT is a plugin for MagicDraw (No Magic, Inc.) that aids in creating and maintaining a PEL, and also generates a power and temporal variable constraint set, in Maple language syntax, based on specified operational scenarios. The constraint set can be solved in Maple to show electric load profiles (i.e. power consumption from loads over time). SPLAT creates these load profiles from three modeled inputs: 1) a list of system components and their respective power modes, 2) a decomposition hierarchy of the system into these components, and 3) the specification of at least one scenario, which consists of temporal constraints on component power modes. In order to demonstrate how this information is represented in a system model, a notional example of a spacecraft planetary flyby is introduced. This example is also used to explain the overall functionality of SPLAT, and how this is used to generate electric power load profiles. Lastly, a cursory review of the usage of SPLAT on the Cold Atom Laboratory project is presented to show how the tool was used in an actual space hardware design application.

  5. The effects of scenario-based communication training on nurses' communication competence and self-efficacy and myocardial infarction knowledge.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Li-Ling; Huang, Ya-Hsuan; Hsieh, Suh-Ing

    2014-06-01

    The aim of the study was to determine the effects of a simulated communication training course on nurses' communication competence, self-efficacy, communication performance, myocardial infarction knowledge, and general satisfaction with their learning experience. A randomized controlled trial was conducted with a pre-test and two post-tests. The experimental group underwent simulated communication training course and the control group received a case-based communication training course. The experimental group made more significant improvement in competence and self-efficacy in communication from pre-test to the second post-test than the control group. Although both groups' satisfaction with their learning experience significantly increased from the first post-test to the second post-test, the experimental group was found to be more satisfied with their learning experience than the control group. No significant differences in communication performance and myocardial infarction knowledge between the two groups were identified. Scenario-based communication training can be more fully incorporated into in-service education for nurses to boost their competence and self-efficacy in communication and enhance their communication performance in myocardial infarction patient care. Introduction of real-life communication scenarios through multimedia in communication education could make learners more motivated to practice communication, hence leading to improved communication capacity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. A scenario-based dieting self-efficacy scale: the DIET-SE.

    PubMed

    Stich, Christine; Knäuper, Bärbel; Tint, Ami

    2009-03-01

    The article discusses a scenario-based dieting self-efficacy scale, the DIET-SE, developed from dieter's inventory of eating temptations (DIET). The DIET-SE consists of items that describe scenarios of eating temptations for a range of dieting situations, including high-caloric food temptations. Four studies assessed the psychometric properties of the 11-item DIET-SE. Exploratory factor analysis (N = 392) and confirmatory factors analysis (N = 124) revealed three internally consistent and reliable factors representing challenges to adhere to a diet (high-caloric food temptations [HCF], social and internal factors [SIF], negative emotional events [NEE]). Convergent validity is established with other measures of dieting self-efficacy, as well as measures of eating disinhibition, susceptibility to hunger, and weight loss competency. Criterion-related validity is provided through the assessment of goal adherence, and predictive validity is established for dieters' actual food intake (N = 68). The DIET-SE represents a short, reliable, and valid scenario-based measure of dieting self-efficacy.

  7. Scenario-based decision making in water resource management: A case study in the Yellow River Delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Congli; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

    2013-04-01

    Decision making in water resource management encounters difficulties due to uncertainties about the future. Scenarios are useful to explore uncertainties and inform decision makers to take actions. Scenarios are originally used to describe the future states in the form of storylines. These are then supplemented with numerical information from model predictions and expert judgement. Probabilities are attached to scenarios to encourage the specific explanation of the assumptions and expectations behind the storylines, and communicate the possibility of each scenario. Bayesian probability offers a prior probability on the basis of available knowledge and beliefs at the presence of uncertainties, and allows for updating to the posterior probability as new evidence arises. Bayesian rules are also applicable for decision making given the existing probabilistic scenarios. Decisions can be ranked according to their performance on the utility function given each possible scenario. A case study is provided to find an optimal solution to alleviate the water stress problem in the Yellow River Delta for the next 30 years. Scenarios of water availability and water demand are developed for the planning period. In order to make decisions rationally, cost-benefit analysis is used to evaluate the performance of viable decisions given the probabilistic scenarios. Key word: Scenarios, Water Management, Uncertainty, Decision making, Bayesian approach

  8. Accelerated Evaluation of Automated Vehicles Safety in Lane-Change Scenarios Based on Importance Sampling Techniques

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Ding; Lam, Henry; Peng, Huei; Bao, Shan; LeBlanc, David J.; Nobukawa, Kazutoshi; Pan, Christopher S.

    2016-01-01

    Automated vehicles (AVs) must be thoroughly evaluated before their release and deployment. A widely used evaluation approach is the Naturalistic-Field Operational Test (N-FOT), which tests prototype vehicles directly on the public roads. Due to the low exposure to safety-critical scenarios, N-FOTs are time consuming and expensive to conduct. In this paper, we propose an accelerated evaluation approach for AVs. The results can be used to generate motions of the other primary vehicles to accelerate the verification of AVs in simulations and controlled experiments. Frontal collision due to unsafe cut-ins is the target crash type of this paper. Human-controlled vehicles making unsafe lane changes are modeled as the primary disturbance to AVs based on data collected by the University of Michigan Safety Pilot Model Deployment Program. The cut-in scenarios are generated based on skewed statistics of collected human driver behaviors, which generate risky testing scenarios while preserving the statistical information so that the safety benefits of AVs in nonaccelerated cases can be accurately estimated. The cross-entropy method is used to recursively search for the optimal skewing parameters. The frequencies of the occurrences of conflicts, crashes, and injuries are estimated for a modeled AV, and the achieved accelerated rate is around 2000 to 20 000. In other words, in the accelerated simulations, driving for 1000 miles will expose the AV with challenging scenarios that will take about 2 to 20 million miles of real-world driving to encounter. This technique thus has the potential to greatly reduce the development and validation time for AVs. PMID:27840592

  9. Accelerated Evaluation of Automated Vehicles Safety in Lane-Change Scenarios Based on Importance Sampling Techniques.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Ding; Lam, Henry; Peng, Huei; Bao, Shan; LeBlanc, David J; Nobukawa, Kazutoshi; Pan, Christopher S

    2016-08-05

    Automated vehicles (AVs) must be thoroughly evaluated before their release and deployment. A widely used evaluation approach is the Naturalistic-Field Operational Test (N-FOT), which tests prototype vehicles directly on the public roads. Due to the low exposure to safety-critical scenarios, N-FOTs are time consuming and expensive to conduct. In this paper, we propose an accelerated evaluation approach for AVs. The results can be used to generate motions of the other primary vehicles to accelerate the verification of AVs in simulations and controlled experiments. Frontal collision due to unsafe cut-ins is the target crash type of this paper. Human-controlled vehicles making unsafe lane changes are modeled as the primary disturbance to AVs based on data collected by the University of Michigan Safety Pilot Model Deployment Program. The cut-in scenarios are generated based on skewed statistics of collected human driver behaviors, which generate risky testing scenarios while preserving the statistical information so that the safety benefits of AVs in nonaccelerated cases can be accurately estimated. The cross-entropy method is used to recursively search for the optimal skewing parameters. The frequencies of the occurrences of conflicts, crashes, and injuries are estimated for a modeled AV, and the achieved accelerated rate is around 2000 to 20 000. In other words, in the accelerated simulations, driving for 1000 miles will expose the AV with challenging scenarios that will take about 2 to 20 million miles of real-world driving to encounter. This technique thus has the potential to greatly reduce the development and validation time for AVs.

  10. Competency in managing cardiac arrest: A scenario-based evaluation of dental students.

    PubMed

    Breuer, Georg; Knipfer, Christian; Huber, Tobias; Huettl, Stephan; Shams, Nima; Knipfer, Kristin; Neukam, Friedrich Wilhelm; Schuettler, Juergen; Stelzle, Florian

    2016-01-01

    Advanced Cardiovascular Life Support (ACLS) in life-threatening situations is perceived as a basic skill for dental professionals. However, medical emergency training in dental schools is often not standardized. The dental students' knowledge transfer to an ACLS setting thus remains questionable. The aim of the study was to evaluate dental pre-doctorate students' practical competence in ACLS in a standardized manner to enable the curriculum to be adapted to meet their particular needs. Thirty dental students (age 25.47 ± 1.81; 16 male/14 female) in their last year of dental studies were randomly assigned to 15 teams. Students' ability to successfully manage ACLS was assessed by a scenario-based approach (training module: Laerdal® ALS Skillmaster). Competence was assessed by means of (a) an observation chart, (b) video analysis and (c) training module analysis (Laerdal HeartSim®4000; Version 1.4). The evaluation was conducted by a trained anesthesiologist with regard to the 2010 guidelines of the European Resuscitation Council (ERC). Only five teams (33.3%) checked for all three vital functions (response, breathing and circulation). All teams initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). Only 54.12% of the compressions performed during CPR were sufficient. Four teams stopped the CPR after initiation. In total, 93% of the teams used the equipment for bag-valve-mask ventilation and 53.3% used the AED (Automated external defibrillator). ACLS training on a regular basis is necessary and, consistent with a close link between dentistry and medicine, should be a standardized part of the medical emergency curriculum for dental students with a specific focus on the deficiencies revealed in this study.

  11. [Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

    PubMed

    Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

    2015-08-01

    Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

  12. A new scenario-based approach to damage detection using operational modal parameter estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, J. B.; Brincker, R.; López-Aenlle, M.; Overgaard, C. F.; Kloborg, K.

    2017-09-01

    In this paper a vibration-based damage localization and quantification method, based on natural frequencies and mode shapes, is presented. The proposed technique is inspired by a damage assessment methodology based solely on the sensitivity of mass-normalized experimental determined mode shapes. The present method differs by being based on modal data extracted by means of Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) combined with a reasonable Finite Element (FE) representation of the test structure and implemented in a scenario-based framework. Besides a review of the basic methodology this paper addresses fundamental theoretical as well as practical considerations which are crucial to the applicability of a given vibration-based damage assessment configuration. Lastly, the technique is demonstrated on an experimental test case using automated OMA. Both the numerical study as well as the experimental test case presented in this paper are restricted to perturbations concerning mass change.

  13. Using scenario-based training to promote information literacy among on-call consultant pediatricians

    PubMed Central

    Pettersson, Jonas; Bjorkander, Emil; Bark, Sirpa; Holmgren, Daniel; Wekell, Per

    2017-01-01

    Background Traditionally, teaching hospital staff to search for medical information relies heavily on educator-defined search methods. In contrast, the authors describe our experiences using real-time scenarios to teach on-call consultant pediatricians information literacy skills as part of a two-year continuing professional development program. Case Presentation Two information-searching workshops were held at Sahlgrenska University Hospital in Gothenburg, Sweden. During the workshops, pediatricians were presented with medical scenarios that were closely related to their clinical practice. Participants were initially encouraged to solve the problems using their own preferred search methods, followed by group discussions led by clinical educators and a medical librarian in which search problems were identified and overcome. The workshops were evaluated using questionnaires to assess participant satisfaction and the extent to which participants intended to implement changes in their clinical practice and reported actual change. Conclusions A scenario-based approach to teaching clinicians how to search for medical information is an attractive alternative to traditional lectures. The relevance of such an approach was supported by a high level of participant engagement during the workshops and high scores for participant satisfaction, intended changes to clinical practice, and reported benefits in actual clinical practice. PMID:28670215

  14. Using scenario-based training to promote information literacy among on-call consultant pediatricians.

    PubMed

    Pettersson, Jonas; Bjorkander, Emil; Bark, Sirpa; Holmgren, Daniel; Wekell, Per

    2017-07-01

    Traditionally, teaching hospital staff to search for medical information relies heavily on educator-defined search methods. In contrast, the authors describe our experiences using real-time scenarios to teach on-call consultant pediatricians information literacy skills as part of a two-year continuing professional development program. Two information-searching workshops were held at Sahlgrenska University Hospital in Gothenburg, Sweden. During the workshops, pediatricians were presented with medical scenarios that were closely related to their clinical practice. Participants were initially encouraged to solve the problems using their own preferred search methods, followed by group discussions led by clinical educators and a medical librarian in which search problems were identified and overcome. The workshops were evaluated using questionnaires to assess participant satisfaction and the extent to which participants intended to implement changes in their clinical practice and reported actual change. A scenario-based approach to teaching clinicians how to search for medical information is an attractive alternative to traditional lectures. The relevance of such an approach was supported by a high level of participant engagement during the workshops and high scores for participant satisfaction, intended changes to clinical practice, and reported benefits in actual clinical practice.

  15. Environmental performance of construction waste: Comparing three scenarios from a case study in Catalonia, Spain

    SciTech Connect

    Ortiz, O.; Pasqualino, J.C.; Castells, F.

    2010-04-15

    The main objective of this paper is to evaluate environmental impacts of construction wastes in terms of the LIFE 98 ENV/E/351 project. Construction wastes are classified in accordance with the Life Program Environment Directive of the European Commission. Three different scenarios to current waste management from a case study in Catalonia (Spain) have been compared: landfilling, recycling and incineration, and these scenarios were evaluated by means of Life Cycle Assessment. The recommendations of the Catalan Waste Catalogue and the European Waste Catalogue have been taken into account. Also, the influence of transport has been evaluated. Results show that in terms of the Global Warming Potential, the most environmentally friendly treatment was recycling, followed by incineration and lastly landfilling. According to the influence of treatment plants location on the GWP indicator, we observe that incineration and recycling of construction wastes are better than landfilling, even for long distances from the building site to the plants. This is true for most wastes except for the stony types, than should be recycled close to the building site. In summary, data from construction waste of a Catalan case study was evaluated using the well established method of LCA to determine the environmental impacts.

  16. Environmental performance of construction waste: Comparing three scenarios from a case study in Catalonia, Spain.

    PubMed

    Ortiz, O; Pasqualino, J C; Castells, F

    2010-04-01

    The main objective of this paper is to evaluate environmental impacts of construction wastes in terms of the LIFE 98 ENV/E/351 project. Construction wastes are classified in accordance with the Life Program Environment Directive of the European Commission. Three different scenarios to current waste management from a case study in Catalonia (Spain) have been compared: landfilling, recycling and incineration, and these scenarios were evaluated by means of Life Cycle Assessment. The recommendations of the Catalan Waste Catalogue and the European Waste Catalogue have been taken into account. Also, the influence of transport has been evaluated. Results show that in terms of the Global Warming Potential, the most environmentally friendly treatment was recycling, followed by incineration and lastly landfilling. According to the influence of treatment plants location on the GWP indicator, we observe that incineration and recycling of construction wastes are better than landfilling, even for long distances from the building site to the plants. This is true for most wastes except for the stony types, than should be recycled close to the building site. In summary, data from construction waste of a Catalan case study was evaluated using the well established method of LCA to determine the environmental impacts.

  17. Scenario based seismic hazard assessment and its application to the seismic verification of relevant buildings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romanelli, Fabio; Vaccari, Franco; Altin, Giorgio; Panza, Giuliano

    2016-04-01

    The procedure we developed, and applied to a few relevant cases, leads to the seismic verification of a building by: a) use of a scenario based neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) for the calculation of the seismic input, and b) control of the numerical modeling of an existing building, using free vibration measurements of the real structure. The key point of this approach is the strict collaboration, from the seismic input definition to the monitoring of the response of the building in the calculation phase, of the seismologist and the civil engineer. The vibrometry study allows the engineer to adjust the computational model in the direction suggested by the experimental result of a physical measurement. Once the model has been calibrated by vibrometric analysis, one can select in the design spectrum the proper range of periods of interest for the structure. Then, the realistic values of spectral acceleration, which include the appropriate amplification obtained through the modeling of a "scenario" input to be applied to the final model, can be selected. Generally, but not necessarily, the "scenario" spectra lead to higher accelerations than those deduced by taking the spectra from the national codes (i.e. NTC 2008, for Italy). The task of the verifier engineer is to act so that the solution of the verification is conservative and realistic. We show some examples of the application of the procedure to some relevant (e.g. schools) buildings of the Trieste Province. The adoption of the scenario input has given in most of the cases an increase of critical elements that have to be taken into account in the design of reinforcements. However, the higher cost associated with the increase of elements to reinforce is reasonable, especially considering the important reduction of the risk level.

  18. [Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

    PubMed

    Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

    2013-01-01

    Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year.

  19. CMIP5 Global Climate Model Performance Evaluation and Climate Scenario Development over the South-Central United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosendahl, D. H.; Rupp, D. E.; Mcpherson, R. A.; Moore, B., III

    2015-12-01

    Future climate change projections from Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the primary drivers of regional downscaling and impacts research - from which relevant information for stakeholders is generated at the regional and local levels. Therefore understanding uncertainties in GCMs is a fundamental necessity if the scientific community is to provide useful and reliable future climate change information that can be utilized by end users and decision makers. Two different assessments of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) GCM ensemble were conducted for the south-central United States. The first was a performance evaluation over the historical period for metrics of near surface meteorological variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and system-based phenomena, which include large-scale processes that can influence the region (e.g., low-level jet, ENSO). These metrics were used to identify a subset of models of higher performance across the region which were then used to constrain future climate change projections. A second assessment explored climate scenario development where all model climate change projections were assumed equally likely and future projections with the highest impact were identified (e.g., temperature and precipitation combinations of hottest/driest, hottest/wettest, and highest variability). Each of these assessments identify a subset of models that may prove useful to regional downscaling and impacts researchers who may be restricted by the total number of GCMs they can utilize. Results from these assessments will be provided as well as a discussion on when each would be useful and appropriate to use.

  20. Evaluating the Sustained Performance of COTS-based Messaging Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Tran, Phong; Gosper, Jeff; Gorton, Ian

    2003-12-01

    Messaging systems, which include message brokers built on top of message-oriented middleware, have been used as middleware components in many enterprise application integration projects. There are many COTS-based messaging systems on the market, but there is little concrete understanding in the software industry on the performance of these different technologies. The authors have carried out a scenario-based evaluation of three leading messaging systems to provide insight into performance issues. The evaluation process includes a study of the sustained performance of the system under load. The result of this study is used to derive a generic metric for quantifying a messaging systems performance. The paper describes a synthetic transactional scenario, which is used for load tests and performance measurement. The results from executing this test scenario with three messaging systems are then presented and explained.

  1. Developing Authentic Online Problem-Based Learning Case Scenarios for Teachers of Students with Visual Impairments in the United Kingdom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McLinden, Mike; McCall, Steve; Hinton, Danielle; Weston, Annette

    2010-01-01

    This article reports on the development of online problem-based learning case scenarios for use in a distance education program for teachers of students with visual impairments in the United Kingdom. Following participation in two case scenarios, a cohort of teachers provided feedback. This feedback was analyzed in relation to the relevant…

  2. What Did I Do? A Scenario-Based Program To Assist Specific Learning Disabled Adolescents in Understanding Legal Issues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDougall, Donna M.

    This practicum was designed to train eight adolescents with specific learning disabilities (SLD) about their legal rights and responsibilities, through a scenario-based program presented in the classroom as part of a transition program. The practicum involved the development of 22 scenarios, a pretest and posttest, and discussions and role-playing…

  3. What Did I Do? A Scenario-Based Program To Assist Specific Learning Disabled Adolescents in Understanding Legal Issues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDougall, Donna M.

    This practicum was designed to train eight adolescents with specific learning disabilities (SLD) about their legal rights and responsibilities, through a scenario-based program presented in the classroom as part of a transition program. The practicum involved the development of 22 scenarios, a pretest and posttest, and discussions and role-playing…

  4. Model based systems engineering (MBSE) applied to Radio Aurora Explorer (RAX) CubeSat mission operational scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spangelo, S. C.; Cutler, J.; Anderson, L.; Fosse, E.; Cheng, L.; Yntema, R.; Bajaj, M.; Delp, C.; Cole, B.; Soremekum, G.; Kaslow, D.

    Small satellites are more highly resource-constrained by mass, power, volume, delivery timelines, and financial cost relative to their larger counterparts. Small satellites are operationally challenging because subsystem functions are coupled and constrained by the limited available commodities (e.g. data, energy, and access times to ground resources). Furthermore, additional operational complexities arise because small satellite components are physically integrated, which may yield thermal or radio frequency interference. In this paper, we extend our initial Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) framework developed for a small satellite mission by demonstrating the ability to model different behaviors and scenarios. We integrate several simulation tools to execute SysML-based behavior models, including subsystem functions and internal states of the spacecraft. We demonstrate utility of this approach to drive the system analysis and design process. We demonstrate applicability of the simulation environment to capture realistic satellite operational scenarios, which include energy collection, the data acquisition, and downloading to ground stations. The integrated modeling environment enables users to extract feasibility, performance, and robustness metrics. This enables visualization of both the physical states (e.g. position, attitude) and functional states (e.g. operating points of various subsystems) of the satellite for representative mission scenarios. The modeling approach presented in this paper offers satellite designers and operators the opportunity to assess the feasibility of vehicle and network parameters, as well as the feasibility of operational schedules. This will enable future missions to benefit from using these models throughout the full design, test, and fly cycle. In particular, vehicle and network parameters and schedules can be verified prior to being implemented, during mission operations, and can also be updated in near real-time with oper

  5. Clustering of Global Climate Models outputs as a tool for scenario-based risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    R Pereira, V.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Avila, A. M. H. D.

    2016-12-01

    The choice of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) future projections outputs for the scenario based risk assessment studies is a challenge for the non-climate models scientists. This study presents a method to select a range of the GCMs scenarios for regional/continental agriculture studies. The technique proposed here is based on grouping the surface air temperature (tas) anomalies in a continental /regional scale - in Brazil-South America - projected by the AR5-CMIP5-GCMs. We run the k-means cluster algorithm and the silhouette method to identify the optimal number and to group the GCMs tas outputs under the rcp 8.5. We applied the delta method to calculate the near future climate change. This method is based on the difference between the future and the baseline in a 30 year running mean periods basis. The future considered here is the 2021-2050 [2030s] and the baseline is the period of 1976-2005 (1980s). As expected, all the models projections showed increases in tas in the near future, ranging from ≅ 3.6 to 0.2 oC. The k-means clustering clearly indicates 5 groups of GCMs tas deltas. The majority of GCMs indicated an intermediate future temperature changes. There is a group of 12 GCMs that is indicating an average change of ≅ 2 oC and another group of 16 indicating ≅ 1 oC. The other two groups with 3 GCMs each indicated a most extreme tas scenario - 0.2 and 3.6 oC respectively. The results were in agreement with previous studies with the AR4 GCMs in which the Miroc5 and HADGEM ES predecessors were classified in different groups of models. The results also allowed us to gradually access the optimist - pessimist groups of 34 GCMs that is a good reference to guide the public policy demands for agriculture under climate change conditions.

  6. Partial Ambiguity Resolution for Ground and Space-Based Applications in a GPS+Galileo scenario: A simulation study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nardo, A.; Li, B.; Teunissen, P. J. G.

    2016-01-01

    Integer Ambiguity Resolution (IAR) is the key to fast and precise GNSS positioning. The proper diagnostic metric for successful IAR is provided by the ambiguity success rate being the probability of correct integer estimation. In this contribution we analyse the performance of different GPS+Galileo models in terms of number of epochs needed to reach a pre-determined success rate, for various ground and space-based applications. The simulation-based controlled model environment enables us to gain insight into the factors contributing to the ambiguity resolution strength of the different GPS+Galileo models. Different scenarios of modernized GPS+Galileo are studied, encompassing the long baseline ground case as well as the medium dynamics case (airplane) and the space-based Low Earth Orbiter (LEO) case. In our analyses of these models the capabilities of partial ambiguity resolution (PAR) are demonstrated and compared to the limitations of full ambiguity resolution (FAR). The results show that PAR is generally a more efficient way than FAR to reduce the time needed to achieve centimetre-level positioning precision. For long single baselines, PAR can achieve time reductions of fifty percent to achieve such precision levels, while for multiple baselines it even becomes more effective, reaching reductions up to eighty percent for four station networks. For a LEO, the rapidly changing observation geometry does not even allow FAR, while PAR is then still possible for both dual- and triple-frequency scenarios. With the triple-frequency GPS+Galileo model the availability of precise positioning improves by fifteen percent with respect to the dual-frequency scenario.

  7. Incorporating scenario-based simulation into a hospital nursing education program.

    PubMed

    Nagle, Beth M; McHale, Jeanne M; Alexander, Gail A; French, Brian M

    2009-01-01

    Nurse educators are challenged to provide meaningful and effective learning opportunities for both new and experienced nurses. Simulation as a teaching and learning methodology is being embraced by nursing in academic and practice settings to provide innovative educational experiences to assess and develop clinical competency, promote teamwork, and improve care processes. This article provides an overview of the historical basis for using simulation in education, simulation methodologies, and perceived advantages and disadvantages. It also provides a description of the integration of scenario-based programs using a full-scale patient simulator into nursing education programming at a large academic medical center.

  8. Decentralized scenario-based plug and play MPC for linear systems with multiplicative uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nehring, Anna; Zhang, Ping

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a novel approach to decentralized control with Plug and Play capabilities. Plug and Play allows a flexible addition and removal of subsystems to an existing plant. The proposed approach guarantees stability and robustness to a certain degree for systems with additive disturbances and multiplicative uncertainties. For the controller design, the plant is decomposed into subsystems. The algorithms for adding and removing subsystems are given. By applying the basic idea of scenario-based methods, the proposed approach is less conservative and can handle complex multiplicative uncertainties.

  9. Evaluation of technology-based service scenarios for supporting independent living.

    PubMed

    Kentta, Outi; Merilahti, Juho; Petäkoski-Hult, Tuula; Ikonen, Veikko; Korhonen, Ilkka

    2007-01-01

    To develop technology -based service solutions for supporting the independent living of elderly citizens, we conducted a user assessment study. Six different service scenarios were created and analyzed in six focus groups by young adults, elderly, and health-care professionals (n=29). Results show that safety was viewed as the most significant aspect. The study also showed that independent of age, most individuals take interest in health related issues only when a clear threat is posed, even though health in general is considered an important issue in life.

  10. Climate change impacts in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin based on different model and scenario simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bozkurt, Deniz; Sen, Omer Lutfi

    2013-02-01

    SummaryHydro-climatic effects of future climate change in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin are investigated using dynamically downscaled outputs of different GCM (ECHAM5, CCSM3 and HadCM3) - emissions scenario (A1FI, A2 and B1) simulations. The suite of simulations (total five) enables an analysis taking into account the A2 emission scenario simulations of three different GCMs and another analysis based on the three different emissions scenario (A1FI, A2 and B1) simulations of one GCM (CCSM3). All scenario simulations indicate winter surface temperature increases in the entire basin, however, the increase is larger in the highlands. The greatest increase in the annual temperature by the end of century belongs to the CCSM3 A1FI simulation with an increment of 6.1 °C in the highlands. There is a broad agreement amongst the simulations in terms of the winter precipitation decrease in the highlands and northern parts and increase in the southern parts of the basin. A remarkable impact of warming could be seen on the snow water equivalent in the highlands where each simulation points out statistically significant decreases ranging from 55% (lower emissions) to 87% (higher emissions). Statistically significant declines (25-55%) are found for the annual surface runoff of the main headwaters area. Moreover, significant temporal shifts to earlier days (between 18 and 39 days depending on the scenario) are projected to occur in the surface runoff timing in the headwaters region. Projected annual surface runoff changes in all simulations suggest that the territories of Turkey and Syria within the basin are most vulnerable to climate change as they will experience significant decreases in the annual surface runoff. Eventually, however, the downstream countries, especially Iraq, may suffer more as they rely primarily on the water released by the upstream countries. The substantial changes in the hydro-climate of the basin, therefore, are likely to increase the challenges associated

  11. The Impact of New Estimates of Mixing Ratio and Flux-based Halogen Scenarios on Ozone Evolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Liang, Qing; Strahan, Susan E.

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of ozone in the 21st century has been shown to be mainly impacted by the halogen emissions scenario and predicted changes in the circulation of the stratosphere. New estimates of mixing ratio and flux-based emission scenarios have been produced from the SPARC Lifetime Assessment 2013. Simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) are conducted using this new A1 2014 halogen scenario and compared to ones using the A1 2010 scenario. This updated version of GEOSCCM includes a realistic representation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and improvements related to the break up of the Antarctic polar vortex. We will present results of the ozone evolution over the recent past and 21st century to the A1 2010, A1 2014 mixing ratio, and an A1 2014 flux-based halogen scenario. Implications of the uncertainties in these estimates as well as those from possible circulation changes will be discussed.

  12. A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Victoria Katherine

    In years past, aircraft conceptual design centered around creating a feasible aircraft that could be built and could fly the required missions. More recently, aircraft viability entered into conceptual design, allowing that the product's potential to be profitable should also be examined early in the design process. While examining an aerospace system's feasibility and viability early in the design process is extremely important, it is also important to examine system risk. In traditional aerospace systems risk analysis, risk is examined from the perspective of performance, schedule, and cost. Recently, safety and reliability analysis have been brought forward in the design process to also be examined during late conceptual and early preliminary design. While these analyses work as designed, existing risk analysis methods and techniques are not designed to examine an aerospace system's external operating environment and the risks present there. A new method has been developed here to examine, during the early part of concept design, the risk associated with not meeting assumptions about the system's external operating environment. The risks are examined in five categories: employment, culture, government and politics, economics, and technology. The risks are examined over a long time-period, up to the system's entire life cycle. The method consists of eight steps over three focus areas. The first focus area is Problem Setup. During problem setup, the problem is defined and understood to the best of the decision maker's ability. There are four steps in this area, in the following order: Establish the Need, Scenario Development, Identify Solution Alternatives, and Uncertainty and Risk Identification. There is significant iteration between steps two through four. Focus area two is Modeling and Simulation. In this area the solution alternatives and risks are modeled, and a numerical value for risk is calculated. A risk mitigation model is also created. The four steps

  13. Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, Jonas; Binkowski, Eva; Bronsart, Robert

    2014-06-01

    In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS) is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC) the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel's calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

  14. TRIDEC Cloud - a Web-based Platform for Tsunami Early Warning tested with NEAMWave14 Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Spazier, Johannes; Reißland, Sven; Necmioglu, Ocal; Comoglu, Mustafa; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Carrilho, Fernando; Wächter, Joachim

    2015-04-01

    In times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms introduced by information and communications technology (ICT) have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in research projects new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based platform - the TRIDEC Cloud - to open up new prospects for EWS. The platform in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. It merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services for instant tsunami propagation calculations and automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The TRIDEC Cloud can be accessed in two different modes, the monitoring mode and the exercise-and-training mode. The monitoring mode provides important functionality required to act in a real event. So far, the monitoring mode integrates historic and real-time sea level data and latest earthquake information. The integration of sources is supported by a simple and secure interface. The exercise and training mode enables training and exercises with virtual scenarios. This mode disconnects real world systems and connects with a virtual environment that receives virtual earthquake information and virtual sea level data re-played by a scenario player. Thus operators and other stakeholders are able to train skills and prepare for real events and large exercises. The GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), and the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) have used the opportunity provided by NEAMWave14 to test the TRIDEC Cloud as a collaborative activity based on previous partnership and commitments at

  15. Scenario-based design: a method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management.

    PubMed

    Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

    2011-12-01

    Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Interview analysis identified 25 information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create 25 scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Scenario-based design: A method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management

    PubMed Central

    Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

    2011-01-01

    Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Methods: Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Results: Interview analysis identified twenty-five information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create twenty-five scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. Conclusion: The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. PMID:21807120

  17. Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, Tamara S.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Soulard, Christopher E.

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they will likely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was to identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected areas in close proximity to lands with a higher likelihood of future land-use conversion. Using a state-and-transition simulation model, we modeled spatially explicit (1 km2) land use from 2000 to 2100 under seven alternative land-use and emission scenarios for ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed scenario-based land-use conversion threats from logging, agriculture, and development near existing protected areas. A conversion threat index (CTI) was created to identify ecoregions with highest projected land-use conversion potential within closest proximity to existing protected areas. Our analysis indicated nearly 22% of land area in the Coast Range, over 16% of land area in the Puget Lowland, and nearly 11% of the Cascades had very high CTI values. Broader regional-scale land-use change is projected to impact nearly 40% of the Coast Range, 30% of the Puget Lowland, and 24% of the Cascades (i.e., two highest CTI classes). A landscape level, scenario-based approach to modeling future land use helps identify ecoregions with existing protected areas at greater risk from regional land-use threats and can help prioritize future conservation efforts.

  18. Impacts of silicon-based grass defences across trophic levels under both current and future atmospheric CO2 scenarios.

    PubMed

    Ryalls, James M W; Hartley, Susan E; Johnson, Scott N

    2017-03-01

    Silicon (Si) has important functional roles in plants, including resistance against herbivores. Environmental change, such as increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2, may alter allocation to Si defences in grasses, potentially changing the feeding behaviour and performance of herbivores, which may in turn impact on higher trophic groups. Using Si-treated and untreated grasses (Phalaris aquatica) maintained under ambient (400 ppm) and elevated (640 and 800 ppm) CO2 concentrations, we show that Si reduced feeding by crickets (Acheta domesticus), resulting in smaller body mass. This, in turn, reduced predatory behaviour by praying mantids (Tenodera sinensis), which consequently performed worse. Despite elevated CO2 decreasing Si concentrations in P. aquatica, this reduction was not large enough to affect the feeding behaviour of crickets or their predator. Our results suggest that Si-based defences in plants have adverse impacts on both primary and secondary trophic taxa, and these are not likely to decline under future climate change scenarios.

  19. Earthquake Scenario-Based Tsunami Wave Heights in the Eastern Mediterranean and Connected Seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Necmioglu, Ocal; Özel, Nurcan Meral

    2015-12-01

    We identified a set of tsunami scenario input parameters in a 0.5° × 0.5° uniformly gridded area in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean (both for shallow- and intermediate-depth earthquakes) and Black Seas (only shallow earthquakes) and calculated tsunami scenarios using the SWAN-Joint Research Centre (SWAN-JRC) code ( Mader 2004; Annunziato 2007) with 2-arcmin resolution bathymetry data for the range of 6.5—Mwmax with an Mw increment of 0.1 at each grid in order to realize a comprehensive analysis of tsunami wave heights from earthquakes originating in the region. We defined characteristic earthquake source parameters from a compiled set of sources such as existing moment tensor catalogues and various reference studies, together with the Mwmax assigned in the literature, where possible. Results from 2,415 scenarios show that in the Eastern Mediterranean and its connected seas (Aegean and Black Sea), shallow earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6.5 may result in coastal wave heights of 0.5 m, whereas the same wave height would be expected only from intermediate-depth earthquakes with Mw ≥ 7.0 . The distribution of maximum wave heights calculated indicate that tsunami wave heights up to 1 m could be expected in the northern Aegean, whereas in the Black Sea, Cyprus, Levantine coasts, northern Libya, eastern Sicily, southern Italy, and western Greece, up to 3-m wave height could be possible. Crete, the southern Aegean, and the area between northeast Libya and Alexandria (Egypt) is prone to maximum tsunami wave heights of >3 m. Considering that calculations are performed at a minimum bathymetry depth of 20 m, these wave heights may, according to Green's Law, be amplified by a factor of 2 at the coastline. The study can provide a basis for detailed tsunami hazard studies in the region.

  20. Multi-Purpose Avionic Architecture for Vision Based Navigation Systems for EDL and Surface Mobility Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tramutola, A.; Paltro, D.; Cabalo Perucha, M. P.; Paar, G.; Steiner, J.; Barrio, A. M.

    2015-09-01

    Vision Based Navigation (VBNAV) has been identified as a valid technology to support space exploration because it can improve autonomy and safety of space missions. Several mission scenarios can benefit from the VBNAV: Rendezvous & Docking, Fly-Bys, Interplanetary cruise, Entry Descent and Landing (EDL) and Planetary Surface exploration. For some of them VBNAV can improve the accuracy in state estimation as additional relative navigation sensor or as absolute navigation sensor. For some others, like surface mobility and terrain exploration for path identification and planning, VBNAV is mandatory. This paper presents the general avionic architecture of a Vision Based System as defined in the frame of the ESA R&T study “Multi-purpose Vision-based Navigation System Engineering Model - part 1 (VisNav-EM-1)” with special focus on the surface mobility application.

  1. Emergence of the First Catalytic Oligonucleotides in a Formamide-Based Origin Scenario.

    PubMed

    Šponer, Judit E; Šponer, Jiří; Nováková, Olga; Brabec, Viktor; Šedo, Ondrej; Zdráhal, Zbyněk; Costanzo, Giovanna; Pino, Samanta; Saladino, Raffaele; Di Mauro, Ernesto

    2016-03-07

    50 years after the historical Miller-Urey experiment, the formamide-based scenario is perhaps the most powerful concurrent hypothesis for the origin of life on our planet besides the traditional HCN-based concept. The information accumulated during the last 15 years in this topic is astonishingly growing and nowadays the formamide-based model represents one of the most complete and coherent pathways leading from simple prebiotic precursors up to the first catalytically active RNA molecules. In this work, we overview the major events of this long pathway that have emerged from recent experimental and theoretical studies, mainly concentrating on the mechanistic, methodological, and structural aspects of this research. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  2. Performance-Based Funding Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Washington Higher Education Coordinating Board, 2011

    2011-01-01

    A number of states have made progress in implementing performance-based funding (PFB) and accountability. This policy brief summarizes main features of performance-based funding systems in three states: Tennessee, Ohio, and Indiana. The brief also identifies key issues that states considering performance-based funding must address, as well as…

  3. Web-based hybrid-dimensional Visualization and Exploration of Cytological Localization Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Kovanci, Gökhan; Ghaffar, Mehmood; Sommer, Björn

    2016-12-21

    The CELLmicrocosmos 4.2 PathwayIntegration (CmPI) is a tool which provides hybrid-dimensional visualization and analysis of intracellular protein and gene localizations in the context of a virtual 3D environment. This tool is developed based on Java/Java3D/JOGL and provides a standalone application compatible to all relevant operating systems. However, it requires Java and the local installation of the software. Here we present the prototype of an alternative web-based visualization approach, using Three.js and D3.js. In this way it is possible to visualize and explore CmPI-generated localization scenarios including networks mapped to 3D cell components by just providing a URL to a collaboration partner. This publication describes the integration of the different technologies – Three.js, D3.js and PHP – as well as an application case: a localization scenario of the citrate cycle. The CmPI web viewer is available at: http://CmPIweb.CELLmicrocosmos.org.

  4. A model based bayesian solution for characterization of complex damage scenarios in aerospace composite structures.

    PubMed

    Reed, H; Leckey, Cara A C; Dick, A; Harvey, G; Dobson, J

    2017-09-05

    Ultrasonic damage detection and characterization is commonly used in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of aerospace composite components. In recent years there has been an increased development of guided wave based methods. In real materials and structures, these dispersive waves result in complicated behavior in the presence of complex damage scenarios. Model-based characterization methods utilize accurate three dimensional finite element models (FEMs) of guided wave interaction with realistic damage scenarios to aid in defect identification and classification. This work describes an inverse solution for realistic composite damage characterization by comparing the wavenumber-frequency spectra of experimental and simulated ultrasonic inspections. The composite laminate material properties are first verified through a Bayesian solution (Markov chain Monte Carlo), enabling uncertainty quantification surrounding the characterization. A study is undertaken to assess the efficacy of the proposed damage model and comparative metrics between the experimental and simulated output. The FEM is then parameterized with a damage model capable of describing the typical complex damage created by impact events in composites. The damage is characterized through a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo solution, enabling a flexible damage model capable of adapting to the complex damage geometry investigated here. The posterior probability distributions of the individual delamination petals as well as the overall envelope of the damage site are determined. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Policy Choice for Urban Low-carbon transportation in Beijing: Scenario Analysis Based on LEAP model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Beijing is a fast developing megacity with serious traffic problems, such as high energy consumption, high CO2 emission and traffic congestion. The coming 13th Five-Year Plan for Beijing economic and social development will focus on the low-carbon transportation policy to achieve the urban traffic sustainable development. In order to improve the feasibility of urban low-carbon transportation policies, this paper analyzes the future trends of CO2 emissions from transportation of Beijing. Firstly, five policies scenarios are developed according to the coming Beijing 13th Five-Year Plan, including the "Business As Usual (BAU)", the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)", the "New Energy Vehicle(NEV)", the "Active Transportation(AT)", the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" and the "Hybrid Policy(HP)". Then the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP model) framework is adopted to estimate CO2 emission under given policies scenarios up to year 2020 and analyze the implications. The results demonstrate that the low-carbon transportation policies can reduce CO2 emission effectively. Specifically, the "Hybrid Policy(HP)" has the best performance. In terms of single policy effect, the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" comes first followed by the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)".

  6. Dynamic optimization of ISR sensors using a risk-based reward function applied to ground and space surveillance scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeSena, J. T.; Martin, S. R.; Clarke, J. C.; Dutrow, D. A.; Newman, A. J.

    2012-06-01

    As the number and diversity of sensing assets available for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) operations continues to expand, the limited ability of human operators to effectively manage, control and exploit the ISR ensemble is exceeded, leading to reduced operational effectiveness. Automated support both in the processing of voluminous sensor data and sensor asset control can relieve the burden of human operators to support operation of larger ISR ensembles. In dynamic environments it is essential to react quickly to current information to avoid stale, sub-optimal plans. Our approach is to apply the principles of feedback control to ISR operations, "closing the loop" from the sensor collections through automated processing to ISR asset control. Previous work by the authors demonstrated non-myopic multiple platform trajectory control using a receding horizon controller in a closed feedback loop with a multiple hypothesis tracker applied to multi-target search and track simulation scenarios in the ground and space domains. This paper presents extensions in both size and scope of the previous work, demonstrating closed-loop control, involving both platform routing and sensor pointing, of a multisensor, multi-platform ISR ensemble tasked with providing situational awareness and performing search, track and classification of multiple moving ground targets in irregular warfare scenarios. The closed-loop ISR system is fullyrealized using distributed, asynchronous components that communicate over a network. The closed-loop ISR system has been exercised via a networked simulation test bed against a scenario in the Afghanistan theater implemented using high-fidelity terrain and imagery data. In addition, the system has been applied to space surveillance scenarios requiring tracking of space objects where current deliberative, manually intensive processes for managing sensor assets are insufficiently responsive. Simulation experiment results are presented

  7. Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance. PMID:24204922

  8. Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

    PubMed

    Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

  9. Application of State Analysis and Goal-Based Operations to a MER Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, J. Richard; Ingham, Michel D.; Mishkin, Andrew H.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Starbird, Thomas W.

    2006-01-01

    State Analysis is a model-based systems engineering methodology employing a rigorous discovery process which articulates operations concepts and operability needs as an integrated part of system design. The process produces requirements on system and software design in the form of explicit models which describe the behavior of states and the relationships among them. By applying State Analysis to an actual MER flight mission scenario, this study addresses the specific real world challenges of complex space operations and explores technologies that can be brought to bear on future missions. The paper describes the tools currently used on a daily basis for MER operations planning and provides an in-depth description of the planning process, in the context of a Martian day's worth of rover engineering activities, resource modeling, flight rules, science observations, and more. It then describes how State Analysis allows for the specification of a corresponding goal-based sequence that accomplishes the same objectives, with several important additional benefits.

  10. Microalgae-based biodiesel: economic analysis of downstream process realistic scenarios.

    PubMed

    Ríos, Sergio D; Torres, Carmen M; Torras, Carles; Salvadó, Joan; Mateo-Sanz, Josep M; Jiménez, Laureano

    2013-05-01

    Microalgae oil has been identified as a reliable resource for biodiesel production due to its high lipid productivity and potential cultivation in non-fertile locations. However, high scale production of microalgae based biodiesel depends on the optimization of the entire process to be economically feasible. The selected strain, medium, harvesting methods, etc., sorely affects the ash content in the dry biomass which have a direct effect in the lipid content. Moreover, the suitable lipids for biodiesel production, some of the neutral/saponifiable, are only a fraction of the total ones (around 30% dry base biomass in the best case). The present work uses computational tools for the modeling of different scenarios of the harvesting, oil extraction and transesterification. This rigorous modeling approach detects process bottlenecks that could have led to an overestimation of the potentiality of the microalgae lipids as a resource for the biodiesel production.

  11. Application of State Analysis and Goal-Based Operations to a MER Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, J. Richard; Ingham, Michel D.; Mishkin, Andrew H.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Starbird, Thomas W.

    2006-01-01

    State Analysis is a model-based systems engineering methodology employing a rigorous discovery process which articulates operations concepts and operability needs as an integrated part of system design. The process produces requirements on system and software design in the form of explicit models which describe the behavior of states and the relationships among them. By applying State Analysis to an actual MER flight mission scenario, this study addresses the specific real world challenges of complex space operations and explores technologies that can be brought to bear on future missions. The paper describes the tools currently used on a daily basis for MER operations planning and provides an in-depth description of the planning process, in the context of a Martian day's worth of rover engineering activities, resource modeling, flight rules, science observations, and more. It then describes how State Analysis allows for the specification of a corresponding goal-based sequence that accomplishes the same objectives, with several important additional benefits.

  12. Methodology To Define Drought Management Scenarios Based On Accumulated Future Projections Of Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haro-Monteagudo, David; Solera-Solera, Abel; Andreu-Álvarez, Joaquín

    2014-05-01

    Drought is a serious threat to many water resources systems in the world. Especially to those in which the equilibrium between resources availability and water uses is very fragile, making that deviation below normality compromises the capacity of the system to cope with all the demands and environmental requirements. Since droughts are not isolated events but instead they develop through time in what could be considered a creeping behavior, it is very difficult to determine when an episode starts and how long will it last. Because this is a major concern for water managers and society in general, scientific research has strived to develop indices that allow evaluating the risk of a drought event occurrence. These indices often have as basis previous and current state variables of the system that combined between them supply decision making responsible with an indication of the risk of being in a situation of drought, normally through the definition of a drought scenario situation. While this way of proceeding has found to be effective in many systems, there are cases in which indicators systems fail to define the appropriate on-going drought scenario early enough to start measures that allowed to minimize the possible impacts. This is the case, for example, of systems with high seasonal precipitation variability. The use of risk assessment models to evaluate future possible states of the system becomes handy in cases like the previous one, although they are not limited to such systems. We present a method to refine the drought scenario definition within a water resources system. To implement this methodology, we use a risk assessment model generalized to water resources systems based in the stochastic generation of multiple possible future streamflows generation and the simulation of the system from a Monte-Carlo approach. We do this assessment every month of the year up to the end of the hydrologic year that normally corresponds with the end of the irrigation

  13. Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

    2017-01-01

    As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological

  14. Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Requena-Mullor, Juan M.; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J.; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

    2017-01-01

    As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071–2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological

  15. ESPC Overview. Cash Flows, Scenarios, and Associated Diagrams for Energy Savings Performance Contracts

    SciTech Connect

    Tetreault, T.; Regenthal, S.

    2011-05-01

    This document is meant to inform state and local decision makers about the process of energy savings performance contracts, and how projected savings and allocated energy-related budgets can be impacted by changes in utility prices.

  16. ESPC Overview: Cash Flows, Scenarios, and Associated Diagrams for Energy Savings Performance Contracts

    SciTech Connect

    Tetreault, T.; Regenthal, S.

    2011-05-01

    This document is meant to inform state and local decision makers about the process of energy savings performance contracts, and how projected savings and allocated energy-related budgets can be impacted by changes in utility prices.

  17. A Scenario-Based Process for Requirements Development: Application to Mission Operations Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bindschadler, Duane L.; Boyles, Carole A.

    2008-01-01

    The notion of using operational scenarios as part of requirements development during mission formulation (Phases A & B) is widely accepted as good system engineering practice. In the context of developing a Mission Operations System (MOS), there are numerous practical challenges to translating that notion into the cost-effective development of a useful set of requirements. These challenges can include such issues as a lack of Project-level focus on operations issues, insufficient or improper flowdown of requirements, flowdown of immature or poor-quality requirements from Project level, and MOS resource constraints (personnel expertise and/or dollars). System engineering theory must be translated into a practice that provides enough structure and standards to serve as guidance, but that retains sufficient flexibility to be tailored to the needs and constraints of a particular MOS or Project. We describe a detailed, scenario-based process for requirements development. Identifying a set of attributes for high quality requirements, we show how the portions of the process address many of those attributes. We also find that the basic process steps are robust, and can be effective even in challenging Project environments.

  18. Lunar Outpost Life Support Architecture Study Based on a High-Mobility Exploration Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lange, Kevin E.; Anderson, Molly S.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents results of a life support architecture study based on a 2009 NASA lunar surface exploration scenario known as Scenario 12. The study focuses on the assembly complete outpost configuration and includes pressurized rovers as part of a distributed outpost architecture in both stand-alone and integrated configurations. A range of life support architectures are examined reflecting different levels of closure and distributed functionality. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the sensitivity of results to volatile high-impact mission variables, including the quantity of residual Lander oxygen and hydrogen propellants available for scavenging, the fraction of crew time away from the outpost on excursions, total extravehicular activity hours, and habitat leakage. Surpluses or deficits of water and oxygen are reported for each architecture, along with fixed and 10-year total equivalent system mass estimates relative to a reference case. System robustness is discussed in terms of the probability of no water or oxygen resupply as determined from the Monte Carlo simulations.

  19. A Scenario-Based Process for Requirements Development: Application to Mission Operations Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bindschadler, Duane L.; Boyles, Carole A.

    2008-01-01

    The notion of using operational scenarios as part of requirements development during mission formulation (Phases A & B) is widely accepted as good system engineering practice. In the context of developing a Mission Operations System (MOS), there are numerous practical challenges to translating that notion into the cost-effective development of a useful set of requirements. These challenges can include such issues as a lack of Project-level focus on operations issues, insufficient or improper flowdown of requirements, flowdown of immature or poor-quality requirements from Project level, and MOS resource constraints (personnel expertise and/or dollars). System engineering theory must be translated into a practice that provides enough structure and standards to serve as guidance, but that retains sufficient flexibility to be tailored to the needs and constraints of a particular MOS or Project. We describe a detailed, scenario-based process for requirements development. Identifying a set of attributes for high quality requirements, we show how the portions of the process address many of those attributes. We also find that the basic process steps are robust, and can be effective even in challenging Project environments.

  20. WSN system design by using an innovative neural network model to perform thermals forecasting in a urban canyon scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuseppina, Nicolosi; Salvatore, Tirrito

    2015-12-01

    Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) were studied by researchers in order to manage Heating, Ventilating and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) indoor systems. WSN can be useful specially to regulate indoor confort in a urban canyon scenario, where the thermal parameters vary rapidly, influenced by outdoor climate changing. This paper shows an innovative neural network approach, by using WSN data collected, in order to forecast the indoor temperature to varying the outdoor conditions based on climate parameters and boundary conditions typically of urban canyon. In this work more attention will be done to influence of traffic jam and number of vehicles in queue.

  1. Supporting Algebraic Reasoning through Personalized Story Scenarios: How Situational Understanding Mediates Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walkington, Candace; Petrosino, Anthony; Sherman, Milan

    2013-01-01

    Context personalization refers to matching instruction to students' out-of-school interests and experiences. Belief in the benefits of matching instruction to interests is widely held in the culture of schooling; however, little research has empirically examined how interest impacts performance and learning in secondary mathematics. Here we…

  2. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    PubMed

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Scenario-Based Tsunami Hazard Assessment from Earthquake and Landslide Sources for Eastern Sicily, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tinti, S.; Armigliato, A.; Pagnoni, G.; Paparo, M. A.; Zaniboni, F.

    2016-12-01

    Eastern Sicily was theatre of the most damaging tsunamis that ever struck Italy, such as the 11 January 1693 and the 28 December 1908 tsunamis. Tectonic studies and paleotsunami investigations extended historical records of tsunami occurrence back of several thousands of years. Tsunami sources relevant for eastern Sicily are both local and remote, the latter being located in the Ionian Greece and in the Western Hellenic Arc. Here in 365 A.D. a large earthquake generated a tsunami that was seen in the whole eastern and central Mediterranean including the Sicilian coasts. The objective of this study is the evaluation of tsunami hazard along the coast of eastern Sicily, central Mediterranean, Italy via a scenario-based technique, which has been preferred to the PTHA approach because, when dealing with tsunamis induced by landslides, uncertainties are usually so large to undermine the PTHA results. Tsunamis of earthquake and landslide origin are taken into account for the entire coast of Sicily, from the Messina to the Siracusa provinces. Landslides are essentially local sources and can occur underwater along the unstable flanks of the Messina Straits or along the steep slopes of the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment. The method is based on a two-step procedure. After a preliminary step where very many earthquake and landslide sources are taken into account and tsunamis are computed on a low-resolution grid, the worst-case scenarios are selected and tsunamis are simulated on a finer-resolution grid allowing for a better calculation of coastal wave height and tsunami penetration. The final result of our study is given in the form of aggregate fields computed from individual scenarios. Also interesting is the contribution of the various tsunami sources in different localities along the coast. It is found that the places with the highest level of hazard are the low lands of La Playa south of Catania and of the Bay of Augusta, which is in agreement also with historical

  4. A web-based 3D visualisation and assessment system for urban precinct scenario modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trubka, Roman; Glackin, Stephen; Lade, Oliver; Pettit, Chris

    2016-07-01

    Recent years have seen an increasing number of spatial tools and technologies for enabling better decision-making in the urban environment. They have largely arisen because of the need for cities to be more efficiently planned to accommodate growing populations while mitigating urban sprawl, and also because of innovations in rendering data in 3D being well suited for visualising the urban built environment. In this paper we review a number of systems that are better known and more commonly used in the field of urban planning. We then introduce Envision Scenario Planner (ESP), a web-based 3D precinct geodesign, visualisation and assessment tool, developed using Agile and Co-design methods. We provide a comprehensive account of the tool, beginning with a discussion of its design and development process and concluding with an example use case and a discussion of the lessons learned in its development.

  5. Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

    2013-04-01

    The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimension—climate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed

  6. A scenario-based study on information flow and collaboration patterns in disaster management.

    PubMed

    Sagun, Aysu; Bouchlaghem, Dino; Anumba, Chimay J

    2009-04-01

    Disaster management (DM) is a continuous, highly collaborative process involving governments, DM organisations, responders, the construction sector, and the general public. Most research approaches to DM include the development of information and communication technologies (ICT) to support the collaboration process rather than the creation of a collaboration process to provide information flows and patterns. An Intelligent Disaster Collaboration System (IDCS) is introduced in this paper as a conceptual model to integrate ICT into DM and the mitigation process and to enhance collaboration. The framework is applicable to the collaboration process at the local, regional and national levels. Within this context, the deployment of ICT tools in DM is explored and scenario-based case studies on flooding and terrorism--examples of natural and human-induced disasters, respectively--are presented. Conclusions are drawn regarding the differences found in collaboration patterns and ICT used during natural and human-induced disasters and the differences between currently available ICT and proposed ICT.

  7. Current scenario of peptide-based drugs: the key roles of cationic antitumor and antiviral peptides

    PubMed Central

    Mulder, Kelly C. L.; Lima, Loiane A.; Miranda, Vivian J.; Dias, Simoni C.; Franco, Octávio L.

    2013-01-01

    Cationic antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) and host defense peptides (HDPs) show vast potential as peptide-based drugs. Great effort has been made in order to exploit their mechanisms of action, aiming to identify their targets as well as to enhance their activity and bioavailability. In this review, we will focus on both naturally occurring and designed antiviral and antitumor cationic peptides, including those here called promiscuous, in which multiple targets are associated with a single peptide structure. Emphasis will be given to their biochemical features, selectivity against extra targets, and molecular mechanisms. Peptides which possess antitumor activity against different cancer cell lines will be discussed, as well as peptides which inhibit virus replication, focusing on their applications for human health, animal health and agriculture, and their potential as new therapeutic drugs. Moreover, the current scenario for production and the use of nanotechnology as delivery tool for both classes of cationic peptides, as well as the perspectives on improving them is considered. PMID:24198814

  8. Improved confinement in highly powered high performance scenarios on DIII-D

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrie, T. W.; Osborne, T.; Fenstermacher, M. E.; Ferron, J.; Groebner, R.; Grierson, B.; Holcomb, C.; Lasnier, C.; Leonard, A.; Luce, T.; Makowski, M.; Turco, F.; Solomon, W.; Victor, B.; Watkins, J.

    2017-08-01

    DIII-D has recently demonstrated improved energy confinement by injecting neutral deuterium gas into high performance near-double null divertor (DND) plasmas during high power operation. Representative parameters for these plasmas are: q 95  =  6, P IN up to 15 MW, H 98  =  1.4-1.8, and β N  =  2.5-4.0. The ion B   ×  \

  9. Context-based handover of persons in crowd and riot scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metzler, Jürgen

    2015-02-01

    In order to control riots in crowds, it is helpful to get ringleaders under control and pull them out of the crowd if one has become an offender. A great support to achieve these tasks is the capability of observing the crowd and ringleaders automatically by using cameras. It also allows a better conservation of evidence in riot control. A ringleader who has become an offender should be tracked across and recognized by several cameras, regardless of whether overlapping camera's fields of view exist or not. We propose a context-based approach for handover of persons between different camera fields of view. This approach can be applied for overlapping as well as for non-overlapping fields of view, so that a fast and accurate identification of individual persons in camera networks is feasible. Within the scope of this paper, the approach is applied to a handover of persons between single images without having any temporal information. It is particularly developed for semiautomatic video editing and a handover of persons between cameras in order to improve conservation of evidence. The approach has been developed on a dataset collected during a Crowd and Riot Control (CRC) training of the German armed forces. It consists of three different levels of escalation. First, the crowd started with a peaceful demonstration. Later, there were violent protests, and third, the riot escalated and offenders bumped into the chain of guards. One result of the work is a reliable context-based method for person re-identification between single images of different camera fields of view in crowd and riot scenarios. Furthermore, a qualitative assessment shows that the use of contextual information can support this task additionally. It can decrease the needed time for handover and the number of confusions which supports the conservation of evidence in crowd and riot scenarios.

  10. Experimental investigation of ion cyclotron range of frequencies heating scenarios for ITER's half-field hydrogen phase performed in JET

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lerche, E.; Van Eester, D.; Johnson, T. J.; Hellsten, T.; Ongena, J.; Mayoral, M.-L.; Frigione, D.; Sozzi, C.; Calabro, G.; Lennholm, M.; Beaumont, P.; Blackman, T.; Brennan, D.; Brett, A.; Cecconello, M.; Coffey, I.; Coyne, A.; Crombe, K.; Czarnecka, A.; Felton, R.; Giroud, C.; Gorini, G.; Hellesen, C.; Jacquet, P.; Kiptily, V.; Knipe, S.; Krasilnikov, A.; Maslov, M.; Monakhov, I.; Noble, C.; Nocente, M.; Pangioni, L.; Proverbio, I.; Sergienko, G.; Stamp, M.; Studholme, W.; Tardocchi, M.; Vdovin, V.; Versloot, T.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Whitehurst, A.; Wooldridge, E.; Zoita, V.; EFDA Contributors, JET

    2012-07-01

    Two ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF) heating schemes proposed for the half-field operation phase of ITER in hydrogen plasmas—fundamental H majority and second harmonic 3He ICRF heating—were recently investigated in JET. Although the same magnetic field and RF frequencies (f ≈ 42 MHz and f ≈ 52 MHz, respectively) were used, the density and particularly the plasma temperature were lower than those expected in the initial phase of ITER. Unlike for the well-performing H minority heating scheme to be used in 4He plasmas, modest heating efficiencies (η = Pabsorbed/Plaunched < 40%) with dominant electron heating were found in both H plasma scenarios studied, and enhanced plasma-wall interaction manifested by high radiation losses and relatively large impurity content in the plasma was observed. This effect was stronger in the 3He ICRF heating case than in the H majority heating experiments and it was verified that concentrations as high as ˜20% are necessary to observe significant ion heating in this case. The RF acceleration of the heated ions was modest in both cases, although a small fraction of the 3He ions reached about 260 keV in the second harmonic 3He heating experiments when 5 MW of ICRF power was applied. Considerable RF acceleration of deuterium beam ions was also observed in some discharges of the 3He heating experiments (where both the second and third harmonic ion cyclotron resonance layers of the D ions are inside the plasma) whilst it was practically absent in the majority hydrogen heating scenario. While hints of improved RF heating efficiency as a function of the plasma temperature and plasma dilution (with 4He) were confirmed in the H majority case, the 3He concentration was the main handle on the heating efficiency in the second harmonic 3He heating scenario.

  11. Using Cognitive Task Analysis to Develop Scenario-Based Training for House-Clearing Teams

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-06-22

    scenario. ß For an advanced scenario, incorporate several Why Difficults. For a basic-level scenario, use fewer. ß There is a lot of loud music playing. ß...l’urbanisation a eu pour effet d’augmenter le nombre d’opérations militaires en terrain urbain (OMTU), dans lesquelles les unités se trouvent à œuvrer dans des

  12. Development and preliminary reliability testing of an assessment of patient independence in performing a treatment program: standardized scenarios.

    PubMed

    Harris-Hayes, Marcie; Holtzman, Gregory W; Earley, Jeanne A; Van Dillen, Linda R

    2010-03-01

    Physical therapists often assess patient independence through observation; however, it is not known if therapists make these judgments reliably. We have developed a standardized method to assess a patient's ability to perform his or her treatment program independently. To develop a standardized assessment of patient independence in performance of a treatment program and examine the intra- and inter-rater reliability decisions made by two physical therapists. Test-retest. An assessment of patient independence in performance was developed. Standardized patient scenarios were used to assess the intra- and inter-tester reliability of two physical therapists. Percentage of agreement (%) and kappa's coefficient (k and k(w)) indexed rater reliability. Intra-rater reliability of therapist 1 was as follows: knowledge: % = 95, k = 0.90; performance: % = 95, k(w) = 0.82. Intra-rater reliability of therapist 2 was as follows: knowledge: % = 85, k = 0.68; performance: % = 94, k(w) = 0.80. Inter-rater reliability for knowledge was % = 91 and k = 0.79 and for performance was % = 91 and k(w) = 0.72. Trained therapists displayed substantial to excellent intra-rater reliability and substantial inter-rater reliability in assessing a patient's independence in a treatment program. :

  13. A randomised controlled trial of student nurse performance of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in a simulated family-witnessed resuscitation scenario.

    PubMed

    Kenny, Gerard; Bray, Isabelle; Pontin, David; Jefferies, Rachel; Albarran, John

    2017-05-01

    This randomized controlled trial, conducted in a UK University nursing department, compared student nurses' performance during a simulated cardiac arrest. Eighteen teams of four students were randomly assigned to one of three scenarios: 1) no family witness; 2) a "quiet" family witness; and 3) a family witness displaying overt anxiety and distress. Each group was assessed by observers for a range of performance outcomes (e.g. calling for help, timing to starting cardiopulmonary resuscitation), and simulation manikin data on the depth and timing of three cycles of compressions. Groups without a distressed family member present performed better in the early part of the basic life support algorithm. Approximately a third of compressions assessed were of appropriate pressure. Groups with a distressed family member present were more likely to perform compressions with low pressure. Groups with no family member present were more likely to perform compressions with too much pressure. Timing of compressions was better when there was no family member present. Family presence appears to have an effect on subjectively and objectively measured performance. Further study is required to see how these findings translate into the registered nurse population, and how experience and education modify the impact of family member presence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Exploring Virtual Worlds for Scenario-Based Repeated Team Training of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation in Medical Students

    PubMed Central

    Hedman, Leif; Medin, Christopher; Heinrichs, Wm. LeRoy; Felländer-Tsai, Li

    2010-01-01

    Background Contemporary learning technologies, such as massively multiplayer virtual worlds (MMVW), create new means for teaching and training. However, knowledge about the effectiveness of such training is incomplete, and there are no data regarding how students experience it. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is a field within medicine in high demand for new and effective training modalities. Objective In addition to finding a feasible way to implement CPR training, our aim was to investigate how a serious game setting in a virtual world using avatars would influence medical students’ subjective experiences as well as their retention of knowledge. Methods An MMVW was refined and used in a study to train 12 medical students in CPR in 3-person teams in a repeated fashion 6 months apart. An exit questionnaire solicited reflections over their experiences. As the subjects trained in 4 CPR scenarios, measurements of self-efficacy, concentration, and mental strain were made in addition to measuring knowledge. Engagement modes and coping strategies were also studied. Parametric and nonparametric statistical analyses were carried out according to distribution of the data. Results The majority of the subjects reported that they had enjoyed the training, had found it to be suitable, and had learned something new, although several asked for more difficult and complex scenarios as well as a richer virtual environment. The mean values for knowledge dropped during the 6 months from 8.0/10 to 6.25/10 (P = .002). Self-efficacy increased from before to after each of the two training sessions, from 5.9/7 to 6.5/7 (P = .01) after the first and from 6.0/7 to 6.7/7 (P = .03) after the second. The mean perceived concentration value increased from 54.2/100 to 66.6/100 (P = .006), and in general the mental strain was found to be low to moderate (mean = 2.6/10). Conclusions Using scenario-based virtual world team training with avatars to train medical students in multi-person CPR was

  15. Exploring virtual worlds for scenario-based repeated team training of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in medical students.

    PubMed

    Creutzfeldt, Johan; Hedman, Leif; Medin, Christopher; Heinrichs, Wm LeRoy; Felländer-Tsai, Li

    2010-09-03

    Contemporary learning technologies, such as massively multiplayer virtual worlds (MMVW), create new means for teaching and training. However, knowledge about the effectiveness of such training is incomplete, and there are no data regarding how students experience it. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is a field within medicine in high demand for new and effective training modalities. In addition to finding a feasible way to implement CPR training, our aim was to investigate how a serious game setting in a virtual world using avatars would influence medical students' subjective experiences as well as their retention of knowledge. An MMVW was refined and used in a study to train 12 medical students in CPR in 3-person teams in a repeated fashion 6 months apart. An exit questionnaire solicited reflections over their experiences. As the subjects trained in 4 CPR scenarios, measurements of self-efficacy, concentration, and mental strain were made in addition to measuring knowledge. Engagement modes and coping strategies were also studied. Parametric and nonparametric statistical analyses were carried out according to distribution of the data. The majority of the subjects reported that they had enjoyed the training, had found it to be suitable, and had learned something new, although several asked for more difficult and complex scenarios as well as a richer virtual environment. The mean values for knowledge dropped during the 6 months from 8.0/10 to 6.25/10 (P = .002). Self-efficacy increased from before to after each of the two training sessions, from 5.9/7 to 6.5/7 (P = .01) after the first and from 6.0/7 to 6.7/7 (P = .03) after the second. The mean perceived concentration value increased from 54.2/100 to 66.6/100 (P = .006), and in general the mental strain was found to be low to moderate (mean = 2.6/10). Using scenario-based virtual world team training with avatars to train medical students in multi-person CPR was feasible and showed promising results. Although we

  16. Strong Effects of Vs30 Heterogeneity on Physics-Based Scenario Ground-Shaking Computations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Louie, J. N.; Pullammanappallil, S. K.

    2014-12-01

    Hazard mapping and building codes worldwide use the vertically time-averaged shear-wave velocity between the surface and 30 meters depth, Vs30, as one predictor of earthquake ground shaking. Intensive field campaigns a decade ago in Reno, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas measured urban Vs30 transects with 0.3-km spacing. The Clark County, Nevada, Parcel Map includes urban Las Vegas and comprises over 10,000 site measurements over 1500 km2, completed in 2010. All of these data demonstrate fractal spatial statistics, with a fractal dimension of 1.5-1.8 at scale lengths from 0.5 km to 50 km. Vs measurements in boreholes up to 400 m deep show very similar statistics at 1 m to 200 m lengths. When included in physics-based earthquake-scenario ground-shaking computations, the highly heterogeneous Vs30 maps exhibit unexpectedly strong influence. In sensitivity tests (image below), low-frequency computations at 0.1 Hz display amplifications (as well as de-amplifications) of 20% due solely to Vs30. In 0.5-1.0 Hz computations, the amplifications are a factor of two or more. At 0.5 Hz and higher frequencies the amplifications can be larger than what the 1-d Building Code equations would predict from the Vs30 variations. Vs30 heterogeneities at one location have strong influence on amplifications at other locations, stretching out in the predominant direction of wave propagation for that scenario. The sensitivity tests show that shaking and amplifications are highly scenario-dependent. Animations of computed ground motions and how they evolve with time suggest that the fractal Vs30 variance acts to trap wave energy and increases the duration of shaking. Validations of the computations against recorded ground motions, possible in Las Vegas Valley due to the measurements of the Clark County Parcel Map, show that ground motion levels and amplifications match, while recorded shaking has longer duration than computed shaking. Several mechanisms may explain the amplification and increased

  17. Thermal Performance Expectations of the Advanced Stirling Convertor Over a Range of Operating Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reid, Terry V.; Dyson, Rodger W.

    2010-01-01

    The Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) will enable various missions such as small body sample return, atmospheric missions around Venus, as well as long - duration deep space missions. Analysis of the temperature distributions are performed on an Advanced Stirling Convertor, and the results are compared with available experimental measurements. This analysis includes applied environmental conditions that are similar to those that will be experienced while the convertor is in operation. The applied conditions represent a potential mission profile including pre-takeoff sterilization, launch, transit, and return. The results focus on the anticipated peak temperatures of the magnets in the linear alternator. These results confirm that the ASC can support future missions to deep space targets, extreme environment landers, as well as more conventional goals.

  18. Land use scenarios simulation based on the CLUE-S model of the Lijiang River Basin in Guilin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Qingwen; Liu, Guang; Li, Lei; He, Chengxin; Huang, Yuqing; Yao, Yuefeng

    2016-11-01

    The relationship between government policy and land use change is very important, which can provide important information for understanding of land use change and for helping in development of sustainable policy. Returning Farmland to Forest Program is simulated by the CLUE-S model. Land use maps in 1993, 2006, 2010 and 2015 in Lijiang River Basin are interpreted based on remote sensing change from 1993 to 2025 under two scenarios (i.e., Natural Growth Scenarios, Government Intervention Scenarios). In the “Natural Growth Scenarios”, the area of construction land and cultivated land are increased, the others are decreased. In the “Government Intervention Scenarios”, the area of construction land, woodland, cultivated land, and water are increased, the others is in declined. The compared results of two scenarios provide a scientific support for the government policy in the Lijiang River Basin.

  19. Beamforming for directional sources: additional estimator and evaluation of performance under different acoustic scenarios.

    PubMed

    Bouchard, Christian; Havelock, David I; Bouchard, Martin

    2011-04-01

    Beamforming is done with an array of sensors to achieve a directional or spatially-specific response by using a model of the arriving wavefront. Conventionally, a plane wave or point source model is used and this can cause decreased array gain or even total breakdown of beamforming when the source is directional. To avoid this, the authors proposed in recent work an alternative beamforming method which defines a set of "sub-beamformers," each designed to respond to a different spatial mode of the source. The outputs of the individual sub-beamformers are combined in a weighted sum to give an overall output of better quality than that of a monopole beamformer. This paper extends the previous work by introducing an additional estimator for the weighted sum and by presenting simulation results to demonstrate the relative performance of the proposed method and the different estimators for a directional source in the presence of diffuse noise, reverberation, and an interfering source. Gain optimization subject to a constraint on the white-noise gain with the proposed beamforming method is also introduced. Generally, when beamforming on directional sources, the proposed method outperforms beamforming with a point source model when the input signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is 0 dB or higher.

  20. Assessment and comparison of total RF-EMF exposure in femtocell and macrocell base station scenarios.

    PubMed

    Aerts, Sam; Plets, David; Verloock, Leen; Martens, Luc; Joseph, Wout

    2014-12-01

    The indoor coverage of a mobile service can be drastically improved by deployment of an indoor femtocell base station (FBS). However, the impact of its proximity on the total exposure of the human body to radio-frequency (RF) electromagnetic fields (EMFs) is unknown. Using a framework designed for the combination of near-field and far-field exposure, the authors assessed and compared the RF-EMF exposure of a mobile-phone (MP) user that is either connected to an FBS or a conventional macrocell base station while in an office environment. It is found that, in average macrocell coverage and MP use-time conditions and for Universal Mobile Telecommunications System technology, the total exposure can be reduced by a factor of 20-40 by using an FBS, mostly due to the significant decrease in the output power of the MP. In general, the framework presented in this study can be used for any exposure scenario, featuring any number of technologies, base stations and/or access points, users and duration. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Engaging in the Future of eLearning: A Scenarios-Based Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martin, Graeme; Pate, Judy

    2005-01-01

    eLearning has been heralded as a transforming influence on education and corporate training. Despite such rhetoric, the exploitation of eLearning has been slower than anticipated. We examine the future of eLearning by adopting a scenario planning approach. Our conclusions suggest the scenarios have been a valuable starting point in engaging in a…

  2. Evaluation of Performance Based Logistics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-08-01

    logistics warehouse provider (see Figure 11 below). NAVICP-P 3PL Warehouse Provider Lockheed Martin Michelin Government Prime Contractor Subcontractor...Evaluation of Performance Based Logistics by Jacques S. Gansler and William Lucyshyn August...REPORT DATE AUG 2006 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2006 to 00-00-2006 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Evaluation of Performance Based Logistics

  3. AI-based (ANN and SVM) statistical downscaling methods for precipitation estimation under climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehrvand, Masoud; Baghanam, Aida Hosseini; Razzaghzadeh, Zahra; Nourani, Vahid

    2017-04-01

    Since statistical downscaling methods are the most largely used models to study hydrologic impact studies under climate change scenarios, nonlinear regression models known as Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based models such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) have been used to spatially downscale the precipitation outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs). The study has been carried out using GCM and station data over GCM grid points located around the Peace-Tampa Bay watershed weather stations. Before downscaling with AI-based model, correlation coefficient values have been computed between a few selected large-scale predictor variables and local scale predictands to select the most effective predictors. The selected predictors are then assessed considering grid location for the site in question. In order to increase AI-based downscaling model accuracy pre-processing has been developed on precipitation time series. In this way, the precipitation data derived from various GCM data analyzed thoroughly to find the highest value of correlation coefficient between GCM-based historical data and station precipitation data. Both GCM and station precipitation time series have been assessed by comparing mean and variances over specific intervals. Results indicated that there is similar trend between GCM and station precipitation data; however station data has non-stationary time series while GCM data does not. Finally AI-based downscaling model have been applied to several GCMs with selected predictors by targeting local precipitation time series as predictand. The consequences of recent step have been used to produce multiple ensembles of downscaled AI-based models.

  4. Scenarios, personas and user stories from design ethnography: Evidence-based design representations of communicable disease investigations

    PubMed Central

    Turner, Anne M; Reeder, Blaine; Ramey, Judith

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Despite years of effort and millions of dollars spent to create a unified electronic communicable disease reporting systems, the goal remains elusive. A major barrier has been a lack of understanding by system designers of communicable disease (CD) work and the public health workers who perform this work. This study reports on the application of User Center Design representations, traditionally used for improving interface design, to translate the complex CD work identified through ethnographic studies to guide designers and developers of CD systems. The purpose of this work is to: (1) better understand public health practitioners and their information workflow with respect to communicable disease (CD) monitoring and control at a local health department, and (2) to develop evidence-based design representations that model this CD work to inform the design of future disease surveillance systems. Methods We performed extensive onsite semi-structured interviews, targeted work shadowing and a focus group to characterize local health department communicable disease workflow. Informed by principles of design ethnography and user-centered design (UCD) we created persona, scenarios and user stories to accurately represent the user to system designers. Results We sought to convey to designers the key findings from ethnographic studies: 1) that public health CD work is mobile and episodic, in contrast to current CD reporting systems, which are stationary and fixed 2) health department efforts are focused on CD investigation and response rather than reporting and 3) current CD information systems must conform to PH workflow to ensure their usefulness. In an effort to illustrate our findings to designers, we developed three contemporary design-support representations: persona, scenario, and user story. Conclusions Through application of user centered design principles, we were able to create design representations that illustrate complex public health communicable

  5. Leadership and teamwork in medical emergencies: performance of nursing students and registered nurses in simulated patient scenarios.

    PubMed

    Endacott, Ruth; Bogossian, Fiona E; Cooper, Simon J; Forbes, Helen; Kain, Victoria J; Young, Susan C; Porter, Joanne E

    2015-01-01

    To examine nursing students' and registered nurses' teamwork skills whilst managing simulated deteriorating patients. Studies continue to show the lack of timely recognition of patient deterioration. Management of deteriorating patients can be influenced by education and experience. Mixed methods study conducted in two universities and a rural hospital in Victoria, and one university in Queensland, Australia. Three simulation scenarios (chest pain, hypovolaemic shock and respiratory distress) were completed in teams of three by 97 nursing students and 44 registered nurses, equating to a total of 32 student and 15 registered nurse teams. Data were obtained from (1) Objective Structured Clinical Examination rating to assess performance; (2) Team Emergency Assessment Measure scores to assess teamwork; (3) simulation video footage; (4) reflective interview during participants' review of video footage. Qualitative thematic analysis of video and interview data was undertaken. Objective structured clinical examination performance was similar across registered nurses and students (mean 54% and 49%); however, Team Emergency Assessment Measure scores differed significantly between the two groups (57% vs 38%, t = 6·841, p < 0·01). In both groups, there was a correlation between technical (Objective Structured Clinical Examination) and nontechnical (Team Emergency Assessment Measure) scores for the respiratory distress scenario (student teams: r = 0·530, p = 0·004, registered nurse teams r = 0·903, p < 0·01) and hypovolaemia scenario (student teams: r = 0·534, p = 0·02, registered nurse teams: r = 0·535, p = 0·049). Themes generated from the analysis of the combined quantitative and qualitative data were as follows: (1) leadership and followership behaviours; (2) help-seeking behaviours; (3) reliance on previous experience; (4) fixation on a single detail; and (5) team support. There is scope to improve leadership, team work and task management skills for registered

  6. Introducing Scenario Based Learning interactive to postgraduates in UQ Orthodontic Program.

    PubMed

    Naser-ud-Din, S

    2015-08-01

    E-learning has gained momentum in health sciences and seems to have great potential in specialist dental education. Higher acceptability by learners is particularly associated with the surge of smart devices. Currently, there are limited number of e-learning modules available for dental education, particularly in Orthodontics. Scenario Based Learning interactive (SBLi(®)) software was used for the first time in Orthodontics Postgraduate training at the University of Queensland. Nine interactive modules were created embedded with clinical procedure videos, web-links, evidence-based literature, along with opportunity for self-assessment and evaluation. Qualitative data were collected before and after the administration of the SBLi(®) for Orthodontics. The purpose of this data was to investigate learning styles and the acceptance of e-modules as part of postgraduate training. Advantages of the package included high acceptance rate, greater confidence in the application of clinical skills covered in the modules and reduced contact time particularly with limited academic staff. E-modules demonstrated high compatibility with the learning styles of the participants and were considered engaging. It seems apparent that e-learning is most effective in a blended learning environment, supplemented with the traditional classroom approach, rather than as a sole mechanism for postgraduate training. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Application of State Analysis and Goal-based Operations to a MER Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, John Richard; Ingham, Michel D.; Mishkin, Andrew H.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Starbird, Thomas W.

    2006-01-01

    State Analysis is a model-based systems engineering methodology employing a rigorous discovery process which articulates operations concepts and operability needs as an integrated part of system design. The process produces requirements on system and software design in the form of explicit models which describe the system behavior in terms of state variables and the relationships among them. By applying State Analysis to an actual MER flight mission scenario, this study addresses the specific real world challenges of complex space operations and explores technologies that can be brought to bear on future missions. The paper first describes the tools currently used on a daily basis for MER operations planning and provides an in-depth description of the planning process, in the context of a Martian day's worth of rover engineering activities, resource modeling, flight rules, science observations, and more. It then describes how State Analysis allows for the specification of a corresponding goal-based sequence that accomplishes the same objectives, with several important additional benefits.

  8. Application of State Analysis and Goal-based Operations to a MER Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, John Richard; Ingham, Michel D.; Mishkin, Andrew H.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Starbird, Thomas W.

    2006-01-01

    State Analysis is a model-based systems engineering methodology employing a rigorous discovery process which articulates operations concepts and operability needs as an integrated part of system design. The process produces requirements on system and software design in the form of explicit models which describe the system behavior in terms of state variables and the relationships among them. By applying State Analysis to an actual MER flight mission scenario, this study addresses the specific real world challenges of complex space operations and explores technologies that can be brought to bear on future missions. The paper first describes the tools currently used on a daily basis for MER operations planning and provides an in-depth description of the planning process, in the context of a Martian day's worth of rover engineering activities, resource modeling, flight rules, science observations, and more. It then describes how State Analysis allows for the specification of a corresponding goal-based sequence that accomplishes the same objectives, with several important additional benefits.

  9. Arctic Planning Scenarios: Scenario #1: Defence Scenario

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-07-01

    ministre de la Défense nationale, 2011 Abstract With the change in northern climate over the past decade, current policy and media discussions have...scenarios, a scenario development methodology, and a Capability Inventory Tool (CIT) to identify and characterize legislation and policy on the Arctic, with...for Canada to be able to meet its strategy and policy objectives. Résumé Compte tenu des changements survenus dans le climat nordique au cours des

  10. Lunar base scenario cost estimates: Lunar base systems study task 6.1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    The projected development and production costs of each of the Lunar Base's systems are described and unit costs are estimated for transporting the systems to the lunar surface and for setting up the system.

  11. Projecting the environmental profile of Singapore's landfill activities: Comparisons of present and future scenarios based on LCA.

    PubMed

    Khoo, Hsien H; Tan, Lester L Z; Tan, Reginald B H

    2012-05-01

    This article aims to generate the environmental profile of Singapore's Semakau landfill by comparing three different operational options associated with the life cycle stages of landfilling activities, against a 'business as usual' scenario. Before life cycle assessment or LCA is used to quantify the potential impacts from landfilling activities, an attempt to incorporate localized and empirical information into the amounts of ash and MSW sent to the landfill was made. A linear regression representation of the relationship between the mass of waste disposed and the mass of incineration ash generated was modeled from waste statistics between years 2004 and 2009. Next, the mass of individual MSW components was projected from 2010 to 2030. The LCA results highlighted that in a 'business as usual' scenario the normalized total impacts of global warming, acidification and human toxicity increased by about 2% annually from 2011 to 2030. By replacing the 8000-tonne barge with a 10000-tonne coastal bulk carrier or freighter (in scenario 2) a grand total reduction of 48% of both global warming potential and acidification can be realized by year 2030. Scenario 3 explored the importance of having a Waste Water Treatment Plant in place to reduce human toxicity levels - however, the overall long-term benefits were not as significant as scenario 2. It is shown in scenario 4 that the option of increased recycling championed over all other three scenarios in the long run, resulting in a total 58% reduction in year 2030 for the total normalized results. A separate comparison of scenarios 1-4 is also carried out for energy utilization and land use in terms of volume of waste occupied. Along with the predicted reductions in environmental burdens, an additional bonus is found in the expanded lifespan of Semakau landfill from year 2032 (base case) to year 2039. Model limitations and suggestions for improvements were also discussed.

  12. Selection of an appropriate wastewater treatment technology: a scenario-based multiple-attribute decision-making approach.

    PubMed

    Kalbar, Pradip P; Karmakar, Subhankar; Asolekar, Shyam R

    2012-12-30

    Many technological alternatives for wastewater treatment are available, ranging from advanced technologies to conventional treatment options. It is difficult to select the most appropriate technology from among a set of available alternatives to treat wastewater at a particular location. Many factors, such as capital costs, operation and maintenance costs and land requirement, are involved in the decision-making process. Sustainability criteria must also be incorporated into the decision-making process such that appropriate technologies are selected for developing economies such as that of India. A scenario-based multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) methodology has been developed and applied to the selection of wastewater treatment alternative. The four most commonly used wastewater treatment technologies for treatment of municipal wastewater in India are ranked for various scenarios. Six scenarios are developed that capture the regional and local societal priorities of urban, suburban and rural areas and translate them into the mathematical algorithm of the MADM methodology. The articulated scenarios depict the most commonly encountered decision-making situations in addressing technology selection for wastewater treatment in India. A widely used compensatory MADM technique, TOPSIS, has been selected to rank the alternatives. Seven criteria with twelve indicators are formulated to evaluate the alternatives. Different weight matrices are used for each scenario, depending on the priorities of the scenario. This study shows that it is difficult to select the most appropriate wastewater treatment alternative under the "no scenario" condition (equal weights given to each attribute), and the decision-making methodology presented in this paper effectively identifies the most appropriate wastewater treatment alternative for each of the scenarios.

  13. The effects of scenario-based simulation course training on nurses' communication competence and self-efficacy: a randomized controlled trial.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Li-Ling; Chang, Wen-Hui; Hsieh, Suh-Ing

    2015-01-01

    Studies have shown that an underappreciation of the importance of person-centered communication and inappropriate communication training could result in unsatisfactory communication performance from nurses. There are a large number of studies about communication training for nurses, but not so many about communication training in early stages of nursing career. The purpose of this study is to compare the effect of a traditional course versus scenario-based simulation training on nurses' communication competency, communication self-efficacy, and communication performance in discharge planning Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE). A randomized controlled trial was used with a pretest and two posttests. The experimental group underwent the scenario-based simulation course, whereas the control group received the traditional course. A convenience sample of 116 nurses with qualifications ranging from N0 level (novice nurses) to N2 level (competent nurses) in Taiwan's clinical nursing ladder system was recruited from a medical center in northern Taiwan. Analysis of covariance was used to determine between-subjects effects on communication competency and self-efficacy, whereas independent t test and Mann-Whitney U test were used to examine between-subjects effects on learner satisfaction and discharge planning communication performance. Paired t test was used to determine communication self-efficacy. In this study, the nurses and independent raters found scenario-based simulation training more effective than traditional communication course. However, standardized patients reported no significant difference in communication performance between the two groups of nurses. Despite that traditional classroom lectures and simulation-based communication training could both produce enhanced communication competency and self-efficacy among nurses, this study has established that the latter may be better than the former in terms of learner satisfaction and communication

  14. Life began when evolution began: a lipidic vesicle-based scenario.

    PubMed

    Tessera, Marc

    2009-12-01

    The research on the origin of life, as such, seems to have reached an impasse as a clear and universal scientific definition of life is probably impossible. On the contrary, the research on the origin of evolution may provide a clue. But it is necessary to identify the minimum requirements that allowed evolution to emerge on early Earth. The classical approach, the 'RNA world hypothesis' is one way, but an alternative based on nonlinear dynamics dealing with far-from-equilibrium self-organization and dissipative structures can also be proposed. The conditions on early Earth, near deep-sea hydrothermal sites, were favorable to the emergence of dissipative structures such as vesicles with bilayer membranes composed of a mixture of amphiphilic and hydrophobic molecules. Experimentally these vesicles are able to self-reproduce but not to evolve. A plausible scenario for the emergence of a positive feedback process giving them the capability of evolving on early Earth is suggested. The possibilities offered by such a process are described in regard to specific characteristics of extant biological organisms and leads for future research in the field are suggested.

  15. Scenario-based prediction of Li-ion batteries fire-induced toxicity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lecocq, Amandine; Eshetu, Gebrekidan Gebresilassie; Grugeon, Sylvie; Martin, Nelly; Laruelle, Stephane; Marlair, Guy

    2016-06-01

    The development of high energy Li-ion batteries with improved durability and increased safety mostly relies on the use of newly developed electrolytes. A detailed appraisal of fire-induced thermal and chemical threats on LiPF6- and LiFSI-based electrolytes by means of the so-called "fire propagation apparatus" had highlighted that the salt anion was responsible for the emission of a non negligible content of irritant gas as HF (PF6-) or HF and SO2 (FSI-). A more thorough comparative investigation of the toxicity threat in the case of larger-size 0.4 kWh Li-ion modules was thus undertaken. A modeling approach that consists in extrapolating the experimental data obtained from 1.3Ah LiFePO4/graphite pouch cells under fire conditions and in using the state-of-the-art fire safety international standards for the evaluation of fire toxicity was applied under two different real-scale simulating scenarios. The obtained results reveal that critical thresholds are highly dependent on the nature of the salt, LiPF6 or LiFSI, and on the cells state of charge. Hence, this approach can help define appropriate fire safety engineering measures for a given technology (different chemistry) or application (fully charged backup batteries or batteries subjected to deep discharge).

  16. Scenario-based risk analysis of winter snowstorms in the German lowlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Wulffen, Anja

    2014-05-01

    conditions. Based on these findings, an exemplary synoptic evolution of a snowstorm leading to representative infrastructure failure cascades is constructed. In a next step, an extrapolation of this obtained scenario to future climate and societal conditions as well as plausible more extreme but not yet observed meteorological conditions is planned in order to obtain a thorough analysis of possible threats to the German food distribution system and a strong foundation for future disaster mitigation planning efforts.

  17. Neptune Orbiter Mission Scenario Based on Nuclear Electric Propulsion and Aerocapture Orbital Insertion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jits, R.

    2002-01-01

    insertion of spacecraft into elliptical orbit around target planet is proposed for Neptune orbiter mission. The primary goal of combining nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) and aerocapture orbital insertion is a reduction of a trip time comparing to that of similar mission, which would use nuclear electric propulsion only. One of the limitations of the all NEP orbiter is that at the planetary approach it must match its arrival velocity with Neptune's orbital speed in order to initiate slow capture into the desired orbit using low thrust electric propulsion. Use of aerocapture for insertion into closed elliptical orbit around Neptune through a single aerodynamically controlled atmospheric pass gives advantage of having higher entry velocities than it would be possible in case of all NEP scenario, thus reducing trip time required for interplanetary transfer. propulsion and thermal protection systems. Moreover, because faster interplanetary trip times for combined NEP/Aerocapture orbiter result in a higher entry velocities into the Neptune's atmosphere, they will also drive the increase in aerobrake mass fraction. In addition, aerocapture at Neptune also presents a challenge for aerobrake's guidance system which must target vehicle to the desired atmospheric exit conditions in the presence of significant uncertainties in Neptune's atmospheric density. Hence, there is a need to design a robust nominal aerocapture trajectory capable of accommodating density dispersions and also optimized for minimum thermal protection mass, thus contributing to overall reduction of aerobrake mass fraction. determine the optimal combination between reduction of the trip time and increase in aerobrake mass fraction was undertaken. The initial assumptions on aerobrake thermal protection materials and NEP system characteristics were based on near term state of the art technology, corresponding to 2007-2010 time frame, when such a mission to Neptune could be launched. interplanetary

  18. Dark scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

    In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

  19. Performance Monitoring Based on UML Performance Profile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Dong Kwan; Kim, Chul Jin; Cho, Eun Sook

    In this paper we propose a way of measuring software performance metrics such as response time, throughput, and resource utilization. It is obvious that performance-related Quality of Service (QoS) is one of the important factors which are satisfied for users' needs. The proposed approach uses UML performance profile for the performance specification and aspect-oriented paradigm for the performance measurement. Code instrumentation in AOP is a mechanism to insert source code for performance measurement into business logic code. We used AspectJ, an aspect-oriented extension to the Java. AspectJ code for performance measurement is separated from Java code for functional requirements. Both AspectJ and Java code can be woven together for the performance measurement. The key component of the proposed approach is an AspectJ code generator. It creates AspectJ code for the performance measurement from the UML [1] models containing performance profile.

  20. A Cloud Robotics Based Service for Managing RPAS in Emergency, Rescue and Hazardous Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silvagni, Mario; Chiaberge, Marcello; Sanguedolce, Claudio; Dara, Gianluca

    2016-04-01

    Cloud robotics and cloud services are revolutionizing not only the ICT world but also the robotics industry, giving robots more computing capabilities, storage and connection bandwidth while opening new scenarios that blend the physical to the digital world. In this vision, new IT architectures are required to manage robots, retrieve data from them and create services to interact with users. Among all the robots this work is mainly focused on flying robots, better known as drones, UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) or RPAS (Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems). The cloud robotics approach shifts the concept of having a single local "intelligence" for every single UAV, as a unique device that carries out onboard all the computation and storage processes, to a more powerful "centralized brain" located in the cloud. This breakthrough opens new scenarios where UAVs are agents, relying on remote servers for most of their computational load and data storage, creating a network of devices where they can share knowledge and information. Many applications, using UAVs, are growing as interesting and suitable devices for environment monitoring. Many services can be build fetching data from UAVs, such as telemetry, video streaming, pictures or sensors data; once. These services, part of the IT architecture, can be accessed via web by other devices or shared with other UAVs. As test cases of the proposed architecture, two examples are reported. In the first one a search and rescue or emergency management, where UAVs are required for monitoring intervention, is shown. In case of emergency or aggression, the user requests the emergency service from the IT architecture, providing GPS coordinates and an identification number. The IT architecture uses a UAV (choosing among the available one according to distance, service status, etc.) to reach him/her for monitoring and support operations. In the meantime, an officer will use the service to see the current position of the UAV, its

  1. Sustainable Systems Analysis of Production and Transportation Scenarios for Conventional and Bio-based Energy Commodities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doran, E. M.; Golden, J. S.; Nowacek, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    International commerce places unique pressures on the sustainability of water resources and marine environments. System impacts include noise, emissions, and chemical and biological pollutants like introduction of invasive species into key ecosystems. At the same time, maritime trade also enables the sustainability ambition of intragenerational equity in the economy through the global circulation of commodities and manufactured goods, including agricultural, energy and mining resources (UN Trade and Development Board 2013). This paper presents a framework to guide the analysis of the multiple dimensions of the sustainable commerce-ocean nexus. As a demonstration case, we explore the social, economic and environmental aspects of the nexus framework using scenarios for the production and transportation of conventional and bio-based energy commodities. Using coupled LCA and GIS methodologies, we are able to orient the findings spatially for additional insight. Previous work on the sustainable use of marine resources has focused on distinct aspects of the maritime environment. The framework presented here, integrates the anthropogenic use, governance and impacts on the marine and coastal environments with the natural components of the system. A similar framework has been highly effective in progressing the study of land-change science (Turner et al 2007), however modification is required for the unique context of the marine environment. This framework will enable better research integration and planning for sustainability objectives including mitigation and adaptation to climate change, sea level rise, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, protection of critical marine habitat and species, and better management of the ocean as an emerging resource base for the production and transport of commodities and energy across the globe. The framework can also be adapted for vulnerability analysis, resilience studies and to evaluate the trends in production, consumption and

  2. Earthquake Scenarios Based Upon the Data and Methodologies of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rukstales, K. S.; Petersen, M. D.; Frankel, A. D.; Harmsen, S. C.; Wald, D. J.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Haller, K. M.

    2011-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP) utilizes a database of over 500 faults across the conterminous United States to constrain earthquake source models for probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Additionally, the fault database is now being used to produce a suite of deterministic ground motions for earthquake scenarios that are based on the same fault source parameters and empirical ground motion prediction equations used for the probabilistic hazard maps. Unlike the calculated hazard map ground motions, local soil amplification is applied to the scenario calculations based on the best available Vs30 (average shear-wave velocity down to 30 meters) mapping, or in some cases using topographic slope as a proxy. Systematic outputs include all standard USGS ShakeMap products, including GIS, KML, XML, and HAZUS input files. These data are available from the ShakeMap web pages with a searchable archive. The scenarios are being produced within the framework of a geographic information system (GIS) so that alternative scenarios can readily be produced by altering fault source parameters, Vs30 soil amplification, as well as the weighting of ground motion prediction equations used in the calculations. The alternative scenarios can then be used for sensitivity analysis studies to better characterize uncertainty in the source model and convey this information to decision makers. By providing a comprehensive collection of earthquake scenarios based upon the established data and methods of the USGS NSHMP, we hope to provide a well-documented source of data which can be used for visualization, planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and research purposes.

  3. Ethoprophos fate on soil-water interface and effects on non-target terrestrial and aquatic biota under Mediterranean crop-based scenarios.

    PubMed

    Leitão, Sara; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Van den Brink, Paul J; Ribeiro, Rui; José Cerejeira, M; Sousa, José Paulo

    2014-05-01

    The present study aimed to assess the environmental fate of the insecticide and nematicide ethoprophos in the soil-water interface following the pesticide application in simulated maize and potato crops under Mediterranean agricultural conditions, particularly of irrigation. Focus was given to the soil-water transfer pathways (leaching and runoff), to the pesticide transport in soil between pesticide application (crop row) and non-application areas (between crop rows), as well as to toxic effects of the various matrices on terrestrial and aquatic biota. A semi-field methodology mimicking a "worst-case" ethoprophos application (twice the recommended dosage for maize and potato crops: 100% concentration v/v) in agricultural field situations was used, in order to mimic a possible misuse by the farmer under realistic conditions. A rainfall was simulated under a slope of 20° for both crop-based scenarios. Soil and water samples were collected for the analysis of pesticide residues. Ecotoxicity of soil and aquatic samples was assessed by performing lethal and sublethal bioassays with organisms from different trophic levels: the collembolan Folsomia candida, the earthworm Eisenia andrei and the cladoceran Daphnia magna. Although the majority of ethoprophos sorbed to the soil application area, pesticide concentrations were detected in all water matrices illustrating pesticide transfer pathways of water contamination between environmental compartments. Leaching to groundwater proved to be an important transfer pathway of ethoprophos under both crop-based scenarios, as it resulted in high pesticide concentration in leachates from Maize (130µgL(-1)) and Potato (630µgL(-1)) crop scenarios, respectively. Ethoprophos application at the Potato crop scenario caused more toxic effects on terrestrial and aquatic biota than at the Maize scenario at the recommended dosage and lower concentrations. In both crop-based scenarios, ethoprophos moved with the irrigation water flow to the

  4. Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP results for the base case and scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems

    2009-12-03

    The NEMS-MP model generates numerous results for each run of a scenario. (This model is the integrated National Energy Modeling System [NEMS] version used for the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study [MP].) This appendix examines additional findings beyond the primary results reported in the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses (Reference 1). These additional results are provided in order to help further illuminate some of the primary results. Specifically discussed in this appendix are: (1) Energy use results for light vehicles (LVs), including details about the underlying total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), the average vehicle fuel economy, and the volumes of the different fuels used; (2) Resource fuels and their use in the production of ethanol, hydrogen (H{sub 2}), and electricity; (3) Ethanol use in the scenarios (i.e., the ethanol consumption in E85 vs. other blends, the percent of travel by flex fuel vehicles on E85, etc.); (4) Relative availability of E85 and H2 stations; (5) Fuel prices; (6) Vehicle prices; and (7) Consumer savings. These results are discussed as follows: (1) The three scenarios (Mixed, (P)HEV & Ethanol, and H2 Success) when assuming vehicle prices developed through literature review; (2) The three scenarios with vehicle prices that incorporate the achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) program vehicle cost goals; (3) The three scenarios with 'literature review' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies; and (4) The three scenarios with 'program goals' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies. The four versions or cases of each scenario are referred to as: Literature Review No Subsidies, Program Goals No Subsidies, Literature Review with Subsidies, and Program Goals with Subsidies. Two additional points must be made here. First, none of the results presented for LVs in this section include Class 2B trucks. Results for this class are included occasionally in Reference 1. They

  5. Relation of Student Characteristics to Learning of Basic Biochemistry Concepts from a Multimedia Goal-Based Scenario.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schoenfeld-Tacher, Regina; Persichitte, Kay A.; Jones, Loretta L.

    This study sought to answer the question, Do all students benefit equally from the use of a hypermedia Goal-Based Scenario (GBS)? GBS is a subcategory of anchored instruction. The correlation between the demographic variables and achievement and specific cognitive variables and achievement was explored using a lesson on DNA, and was tested on…

  6. Blending Face-to-Face Higher Education with Web-Based Lectures: Comparing Different Didactical Application Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montrieux, Hannelore; Vangestel, Sandra; Raes, Annelies; Matthys, Paul; Schellens, Tammy

    2015-01-01

    Blended learning as an instructional approach is getting more attention in the educational landscape and has been researched thoroughly. Yet, this study reports the results of an innovation project aiming to gain insight into three different scenarios of applying web-based lectures: as preparation for face-to-face practical exercises, as a…

  7. Blending Face-to-Face Higher Education with Web-Based Lectures: Comparing Different Didactical Application Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montrieux, Hannelore; Vangestel, Sandra; Raes, Annelies; Matthys, Paul; Schellens, Tammy

    2015-01-01

    Blended learning as an instructional approach is getting more attention in the educational landscape and has been researched thoroughly. Yet, this study reports the results of an innovation project aiming to gain insight into three different scenarios of applying web-based lectures: as preparation for face-to-face practical exercises, as a…

  8. GIS-based quantification of future nutrient loads into Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe using qualitative regional development scenarios.

    PubMed

    Mourad, D S J; Van der Perk, M; Gooch, G D; Loigu, E; Piirimäe, K; Stålnacke, P

    2005-01-01

    This study aims at the quantification of possible future nutrient loads into Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe under different economic development scenarios. This drainage basin is on the borders of Russia, Estonia and Latvia. The sudden disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused a collapse of agricultural economy, and consequently, a substantial decrease of diffuse and point-source nutrient emissions. For the future, uncertainties about economic development and the priorities that will be set for this region make it difficult to assess the consequences for river water quality and nutrient loads into the lake. We applied five integrated scenarios of future development of this transboundary region for the next twelve to fifteen years. Each scenario consists of a qualitative story line, which was translated into quantitative changes in the input variables for a geographical information system based nutrient transport model. This model calculates nutrient emissions, as well as transport and retention and the resulting nutrient loads into the lake. The model results show that the effects of the different development scenarios on nutrient loads are relatively limited over a time span of about 15 years. In general, a further reduction of nutrient loads is expected, except for a fast economic development scenario.

  9. The design of scenario-based training from the resilience engineering perspective: a study with grid electricians.

    PubMed

    Saurin, Tarcisio Abreu; Wachs, Priscila; Righi, Angela Weber; Henriqson, Eder

    2014-07-01

    Although scenario-based training (SBT) can be an effective means to help workers develop resilience skills, it has not yet been analyzed from the resilience engineering (RE) perspective. This study introduces a five-stage method for designing SBT from the RE view: (a) identification of resilience skills, work constraints and actions for re-designing the socio-technical system; (b) design of template scenarios, allowing the simulation of the work constraints and the use of resilience skills; (c) design of the simulation protocol, which includes briefing, simulation and debriefing; (d) implementation of both scenarios and simulation protocol; and (e) evaluation of the scenarios and simulation protocol. It is reported how the method was applied in an electricity distribution company, in order to train grid electricians. The study was framed as an application of design science research, and five research outputs are discussed: method, constructs, model of the relationships among constructs, instantiations of the method, and theory building. Concerning the last output, the operationalization of the RE perspective on three elements of SBT is presented: identification of training objectives; scenario design; and debriefing.

  10. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    a very local-dependent hazard. Also, for major earthquakes, nonlinear effects need to be considered. This problem is treated accordingly, by using recent microzonation studies, together with real data recorded at 4 events with Mw≥6. Different ground motion prediction equations are also analyzed, and improvement of them is investigated. For the buildings and population damage assessment, two open-source software are used and compared: SELENA and ELER. The damage probability for buildings is obtained through capacity-spectrum based methods. The spectral content is used for spectral acceleration at 0.2, 0.3 and 1 seconds. As the level of analysis (6 sectors for all the city) has not the best resolution with respect to the Bucharest hazard scenarios defined, we propose a procedure on how to divide the data into smaller units, taking into consideration the construction code (4 periods) and material. This approach relies on free data available from real estate agencies web-sites. The study provides an insight view on the seismic risk analysis for Bucharest and an improvement of the real-time emergency system. Most important, the system is also evaluated through real data and relevant scenarios. State-of-the art GIS maps are also presented, both for seismic hazard and risk.

  11. Photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils under a climate change base scenario.

    PubMed

    Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse; Audí-Miró, Carme; Sierra, Jordi; Soler, Albert; Nadal, Martí; Domingo, José L

    2016-04-01

    The photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in two typical Mediterranean soils, either coarse- or fine-textured, was here investigated. Soil samples, spiked with the 16 US EPA priority PAHs, were incubated in a climate chamber at stable conditions of temperature (20 °C) and light (9.6 W m(-2)) for 28 days, simulating a climate change base scenario. PAH concentrations in soils were analyzed throughout the experiment, and correlated with data obtained by means of Microtox(®) ecotoxicity test. Photodegradation was found to be dependent on exposure time, molecular weight of each hydrocarbon, and soil texture. Fine-textured soil was able to enhance sorption, being PAHs more photodegraded than in coarse-textured soil. According to the EC50 values reported by Microtox(®), a higher detoxification was observed in fine-textured soil, being correlated with the outcomes of the analytical study. Significant photodegradation rates were detected for a number of PAHs, namely phenanthrene, anthracene, benzo(a)pyrene, and indeno(123-cd)pyrene. Benzo(a)pyrene, commonly used as an indicator for PAH pollution, was completely removed after 7 days of light exposure. In addition to the PAH chemical analysis and the ecotoxicity tests, a hydrogen isotope analysis of benzo(a)pyrene was also carried out. The degradation of this specific compound was associated to a high enrichment in (2)H, obtaining a maximum δ(2)H isotopic shift of +232‰. This strong isotopic effect observed in benzo(a)pyrene suggests that compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) may be a powerful tool to monitor in situ degradation of PAHs. Moreover, hydrogen isotopes of benzo(a)pyrene evidenced a degradation process of unknown origin occurring in the darkness.

  12. Scenario-Based Specification and Evaluation of Architectures for Health Monitoring of Aerospace Structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mukkamala, Ravi; Sundaram, P.

    2001-01-01

    HUMS systems have been an area of increased research in the recent times due to two main reasons: (a) increase in the occurrences of accidents in the aerospace, and (b) stricter FAA regulations on aircrafts maintenance [2]. There are several problems associated with the maintenance of aircrafts that the HUMS systems can solve through the use of several monitoring technologies.This paper documents our methodology of employing scenarios in the specification and evaluation of architecture for HUMS. Section 2 investigates related works that use scenarios in software development. Section 3 describes how we use scenarios in our work, which is followed by a demonstration of our methods in the development of KUMS in section 4. Conclusion summarizes results.

  13. A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal: Present and Future Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadavarte, P.; Das, B.; Rupakheti, M.; Byanju, R.; Bhave, P.

    2016-12-01

    understand impacts of air pollution on health and climate in Kathmandu Valley and Nepal. Future emissions are being developed based on different possible growth scenarios and policy interventions to mitigate emissions.

  14. A tool for home-based rehabilitation allowing for clinical evaluation in a visual markerless scenario.

    PubMed

    Capecci, M; Ceravolo, M G; D'Orazio, F; Ferracuti, F; Iarlori, S; Lazzaro, G; Longhi, S; Romeo, L; Verdini, F

    2015-08-01

    This work deals with the design of an interactive monitoring tool for home-based physical rehabilitation. The software platform includes a video processing stage and the exercise performance evaluation. Image features are extracted by a Kinect v2 sensor and elaborated to return the exercises score. Furthermore the tool provides to physiotherapists a quantitative exercise evaluation of subject's performances. The proposed tool for home rehabilitation has been tested on 5 subjects and 5 different exercises and results are presented. In particular both exercises and relative evaluation indexes were selected by specialists in neurorehabilitation.

  15. A multiple-scenario assessment of the effect of a continuous-care, guideline-based decision support system on clinicians' compliance to clinical guidelines.

    PubMed

    Shalom, Erez; Shahar, Yuval; Parmet, Yisrael; Lunenfeld, Eitan

    2015-04-01

    To quantify the effect of a new continuous-care guideline (GL)-application engine, the Picard decision support system (DSS) engine, on the correctness and completeness of clinicians' decisions relative to an established clinical GL, and to assess the clinicians' attitudes towards a specific DSS. Thirty-six clinicians, including residents at different training levels and board-certified specialists at an academic OB/GYN department that handles around 15,000 deliveries annually, agreed to evaluate our continuous-care guideline-based DSS and to perform a cross-over assessment of the effects of using our guideline-based DSS. We generated electronic patient records that realistically simulated the longitudinal course of six different clinical scenarios of the preeclampsia/eclampsia/toxemia (PET) GL, encompassing 60 different decision points in total. Each clinician managed three scenarios manually without the Picard DSS engine (Non-DSS mode) and three scenarios when assisted by the Picard DSS engine (DSS mode). The main measures in both modes were correctness and completeness of actions relative to the PET GL. Correctness was further decomposed into necessary and redundant actions, relative to the guideline and the actual patient data. At the end of the assessment, a questionnaire was administered to the clinicians to assess their perceptions regarding use of the DSS. With respect to completeness, the clinicians applied approximately 41% of the GL's recommended actions in the non-DSS mode. Completeness increased to the performance of approximately 93% of the guideline's recommended actions, when using the DSS mode. With respect to correctness, approximately 94.5% of the clinicians' decisions in the non-DSS mode were correct. However, these included 68% of the actions that were correct but redundant, given the patient's data (e.g., repeating tests that had been performed), and 27% of the actions, which were necessary in the context of the GL and of the given scenario

  16. Analytical and experimental performance evaluation of an integrated Si-photonic balanced coherent receiver in a colorless scenario.

    PubMed

    Morsy-Osman, Mohamed; Chagnon, Mathieu; Xu, Xian; Zhuge, Qunbi; Poulin, Michel; Painchaud, Yves; Pelletier, Martin; Paquet, Carl; Plant, David V

    2014-03-10

    We study analytically and experimentally the performance limits of a Si-photonic (SiP) balanced coherent receiver (CRx) co-packaged with transimpedance amplifiers (TIAs) in a colorless WDM scheme. Firstly, the CRx architecture is depicted and characterization results are presented. Secondly, an analytical expression for the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at the CRx output is rigorously developed and various noise sources in the context of colorless reception are outlined. Thirdly, we study experimentally the system-level CRx performance in colorless reception of 16 × 112 Gbps PDM-QPSK WDM channels. Using a 15.5 dBm local oscillator (LO) power, error free transmissions over 4800 and 4160 km at received powers of -3 and -21 dBm per channel, respectively, were achieved in a fully colorless and preamplifierless reception. Next, a set of measurements on one of the center WDM channels is performed where the LO power, received signal power, distance, and number of channels presented to the CRx are swept to evaluate the performance limits of colorless reception. Results reveal that the LO beating with optical noise incoming with the signal is a dominant noise source regardless of received signal power. In the high received signal power regime (~0 dBm/channel), the self-beat noise from out-of-band (OOB) channels is an additional major noise source especially for small LO-to-signal power ratio, short reach and large number of OOB channels. For example, at a received signal power of 0 dBm/channel after 1600 km transmission, the SNR difference between the fully filtered and colorless scenarios, where 1 and 16 channels are passed to the CRx respectively, grows from 0.5 to 3.3 dB as the LO power changes from 12 to 0 dBm. For low received power (~-12 dBm/channel), the effect of OOB channels becomes minor while the receiver shot and thermal noises become more significant. We identify the common mode rejection ratio (CMRR) and sensitivity as the two important CRx specifications that

  17. Supporting Primary-Level Mathematics Teachers' Collaboration in Designing and Using Technology-Based Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Misfeldt, Morten; Zacho, Lis

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we address how the design of educational scenarios can support teachers' adoption of both technology and open-ended projects indorsing creativity and innovation. We do that by describing how groups of teachers develop digital learning environments supporting using a combination of GeoGebra and Google sites. Both teachers and…

  18. Scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the coast of Vietnam from the Manila Trench source

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong Nguyen, Phuong; Cong Bui, Que; Ha Vu, Phuong; The Pham, Truyen

    2014-11-01

    This paper assesses the impact of tsunamis in the East Vietnam Sea potentially originated from a giant rupture along the Manila Trench to the Vietnamese coast. Tsunami heights and arrival times to the major forecast points along the Vietnamese coast are computed using COMCOT model. The results of the worst case scenario (Mw = 9.3) and two extreme scenarios were used to assess the tsunami hazards. The simulation results show that Vietnamese coast can be divided into three parts with different levels of tsunami hazard. The highest threat exists along the coasts of Central and North-Central Vietnam, from Quang Binh to Ba Ria - Vung Tau provinces, with maximum wave height of 18 m observed near Quang Ngai coast, and a tsunami would reach this coastline in two hours at the earliest. The northern coastal zone of Vietnam has lower tsunami hazard. In the worst case scenario, maximum amplitudes of tsunami waves at Hai Phong sea port and Nam Dinh city, North Vietnam, are 3.5 m and 3.7 m, respectively, while the travel times to these sites are much longer, over 8 h. The southern coastal zone of Vietnam has very low tsunami hazard. In the worst case scenario, the maximum amplitude at Ca Mau is 0.12 m, while the travel time is over 10 h.

  19. Supporting Primary-Level Mathematics Teachers' Collaboration in Designing and Using Technology-Based Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Misfeldt, Morten; Zacho, Lis

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we address how the design of educational scenarios can support teachers' adoption of both technology and open-ended projects indorsing creativity and innovation. We do that by describing how groups of teachers develop digital learning environments supporting using a combination of GeoGebra and Google sites. Both teachers and…

  20. Scenario planning.

    PubMed

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  1. A Modified Wilson Cycle Scenario Based on Thermo-Mechanical Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baes, M.; Sobolev, S. V.

    2014-12-01

    The major problem of classical Wilson Cycle concept is the suggested conversion of the passive continental margin to the active subduction zone. Previous modeling studies assumed either unusually thick felsic continental crust at the margin (over 40 km) or unusually low lithospheric thickness (less than 70 km) to simulate this process. Here we propose a new triggering factor in subduction initiation process that is mantle suction force. Based on this proposal we suggest a modification of Wilson Cycle concept. Sometime after opening and extension of oceanic basin, continental passive margin moves over the slab remnants of the former active subduction zones in deep mantle. Such slab remnants or deep slabs of neighboring active subduction zones produce a suction mantle flow introducing additional compression at the passive margin. It results in the initiation of a new subduction zone, hence starting the closing phase of Wilson Cycle. In this scenario the weakness of continental crust near the passive margin which is inherited from the rifting phase and horizontal push force induced from far-field topographic gradient within the continent facilitate and speed up subduction initiation process. Our thermo-mechanical modeling shows that after a few tens of million years a shear zone may indeed develop along the passive margin that has typical two-layered 35 km thick continental crust and thermal lithosphere thicker than 100 km if there is a broad mantle down-welling flow below the margin. Soon after formation of this shear zone oceanic plate descends into mantle and subduction initiates. Subduction initiation occurs following over-thrusting of continental crust and retreating of future trench. In models without far-field topographic gradient within the continent subduction initiation requires weaker passive margin. Our results also indicate that subduction initiation depends on several parameters such as magnitude, domain size and location of suction mantle flow

  2. Tsunami hazard potential for the equatorial southwestern Pacific atolls of Tokelau from scenario-based simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orpin, A. R.; Rickard, G. J.; Gerring, P. K.; Lamarche, G.

    2015-07-01

    Devastating tsunami over the last decade have significantly heightened awareness of the potential consequences and vulnerability to tsunami for low-lying Pacific islands and coastal regions. Our tsunami risk assessment for the atolls of the Tokelau Islands was based on a tsunami source-propagation-inundation model using Gerris Flow Solver, adapted from the companion study by Lamarche et al. (2015) for the islands of Wallis and Futuna. We assess whether there is potential for tsunami flooding on any of the village islets from a series of fourteen earthquake-source experiments that apply a combination of well-established fault parameters to represent plausible "high-risk scenarios" for each of the tsunamigenic sources. Earthquake source location and moment magnitude were related to tsunami wave heights and tsunami flood depths simulated for each of the three atolls of Tokelau. This approach was adopted to yield indicative and instructive results for a community advisory, rather than being fully deterministic. Results from our modelling show that wave fields are channelled by the bathymetry of the Pacific basin in such a way that the swathes of the highest waves sweep immediately northeast of the Tokelau Islands. From our series of limited simulations a great earthquake from the Kuril Trench poses the most significant inundation threat to Tokelau, with maximum modelled-wave heights in excess of 1 m, which may last a few hours and include several wave trains. Other sources can impact specific sectors of the atolls, particularly from regional sources to the south, and northern and eastern distant sources that generate trans-Pacific tsunami. In many cases impacts are dependent on the wave orientation and direct exposure to the oncoming tsunami. This study shows that dry areas remain around the villages in nearly all our "worst-case" tsunami simulations of the Tokelau Islands. Consistent with the oral history of little or no perceived tsunami threat, simulations from the

  3. [The effect of a scenario-based simulation communication course on improving the communication skills of nurses].

    PubMed

    Huang, Ya-Hsuan; Hsieh, Suh-Ing; Hsu, Li-Ling

    2014-04-01

    Limited disease knowledge is frequently the cause of disease-related anxiety in myocardial infarction patients. The ability to communicate effectively serves multiple purposes in the professional nursing practice. By communicating effectively with myocardial infarction patients, nurses may help reduce their anxiety by keeping them well informed about their disease and teaching them self-care strategies. This research evaluates the communication skills of nurses following scenario-based simulation education in the context of communication with myocardial infarction patients. This study used an experimental design and an educational intervention. The target population comprised nurses of medicine (clinical qualified level N to N2 for nursing) working at a municipal hospital in Taipei City, Taiwan. A total 122 participants were enrolled. Stratified block randomization divided participants into an experimental group and a control group. The experimental group received clinical scenario-based simulation education for communication. The control group received traditional class-based education for communication. Both groups received a pre-test and a Communication Skills Checklist post-test assessment. Results were analyzed using SPSS 17.0 for Windows software. A t-test showed significant increases in communication skills (p < .001) in the experimental group and ANCOVA results identified significant between-group differences (p < .001) in communication skills following the education intervention. The results indicate that clinical scenario-based simulation education for communication is significantly more effective than traditional class-based education in enhancing the ability of nurses to communicate effectively with myocardial infarction patients.

  4. A new search-and-rescue service in the Mediterranean Sea: a demonstration of the operational capability and an evaluation of its performance using real case scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coppini, Giovanni; Jansen, Eric; Turrisi, Giuseppe; Creti, Sergio; Yurievna Shchekinova, Elena; Pinardi, Nadia; Lecci, Rita; Carluccio, Ivano; Vittal Kumkar, Yogesh; D'Anca, Alessandro; Mannarini, Gianandrea; Martinelli, Sara; Marra, Palmalisa; Capodiferro, Tommaso; Gismondi, Tommaso

    2016-12-01

    A new web-based and mobile decision support system (DSS) for search-and-rescue (SAR) at sea is presented, and its performance is evaluated using real case scenarios. The system, named OCEAN-SAR, is accessible via the website http://www.ocean-sar.com. In addition to the website, dedicated applications for iOS and Android have been created to optimise the user experience on mobile devices. OCEAN-SAR simulates drifting objects at sea, using as input ocean currents and wind data provided, respectively, by the CMEMS and ECMWF. The modelling of the drifting objects is based on the leeway model, which parameterises the wind drag of an object using a series of coefficients. These coefficients have been measured in field experiments for different types of objects, ranging from a person in the water to a coastal freighter adrift. OCEAN-SAR provides the user with an intuitive interface to run simulations and to visualise their results using Google Maps. The performance of the service is evaluated by comparing simulations to data from the Italian Coast Guard pertaining to actual incidents in the Mediterranean Sea.

  5. Application of a scenario-based modeling system to evaluate the air quality impacts of future growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kahyaoğlu-Koračin, Jülide; Bassett, Scott D.; Mouat, David A.; Gertler, Alan W.

    The structure and design of future urban development can have significant adverse effects on air pollutant emissions as well as other environmental factors. When considering the future impact of growth on mobile source emissions, we generally model the increase in vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) as a function of population growth. However, diverse and poorly planned urban development (i.e., urban sprawl) can force higher rates of motor vehicle use and in return increase levels of pollutant emissions than alternative land-use scenarios. The objective of this study is to develop and implement an air quality assessment tool that takes into account the influence of alternative growth and development scenarios on air quality. The use of scenario-based techniques in land use planning has been around since the late 1940s and been tested in many different applications to aid in decision-making. In this study, we introduce the development of an advanced interactive scenario-based land use and atmospheric chemistry modeling system coupled with a GIS (Geographical Information System) framework. The modeling system is designed to be modular and includes land use/land cover information, transportation, meteorological, emissions, and photochemical modeling components. The methods and modularity of the developed system allow its application to both broad areas and applications. To investigate the impact of possible land use change and urbanization, we evaluated a set of alternative future patterns of land use developed for a study area in Southwest California. Four land use and two population variants (increases of 500k and 1M) were considered. Overall, a Regional Low-Density Future was seen to have the highest pollutant emissions, largest increase in VKT, and the greatest impact on air quality. On the other hand, a Three-Centers Future appeared to be the most beneficial alternative future land-use scenario in terms of air quality. For all cases, the increase in population was

  6. An assessment of the diversity in scenario-based tsunami forecasts for the Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenslade, Diana J. M.; Annunziato, Alessandro; Babeyko, Andrey Y.; Burbidge, David R.; Ellguth, Enrico; Horspool, Nick; Srinivasa Kumar, T.; Kumar, Ch. Patanjali; Moore, Christopher W.; Rakowsky, Natalja; Riedlinger, Torsten; Ruangrassamee, Anat; Srivihok, Patchanok; Titov, Vasily V.

    2014-05-01

    This work examines the extent to which tsunami forecasts from different numerical forecast systems might be expected to differ under real-time conditions. This is done through comparing tsunami amplitudes from a number of existing tsunami scenario databases for eight different hypothetical tsunami events within the Indian Ocean. Forecasts of maximum tsunami amplitude are examined at 10 output points distributed throughout the Indian Ocean at a range of depths. The results show that there is considerable variability in the forecasts and on average, the standard deviation of the maximum amplitudes is approximately 62% of the mean value. It is also shown that a significant portion of this diversity can be attributed to the different lengths of the scenario time series. These results have implications for the interoperability of Regional Tsunami Service Providers in the Indian Ocean.

  7. Advances on modelling of ITER scenarios: physics and computational challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giruzzi, G.; Garcia, J.; Artaud, J. F.; Basiuk, V.; Decker, J.; Imbeaux, F.; Peysson, Y.; Schneider, M.

    2011-12-01

    Methods and tools for design and modelling of tokamak operation scenarios are discussed with particular application to ITER advanced scenarios. Simulations of hybrid and steady-state scenarios performed with the integrated tokamak modelling suite of codes CRONOS are presented. The advantages of a possible steady-state scenario based on cyclic operations, alternating phases of positive and negative loop voltage, with no magnetic flux consumption on average, are discussed. For regimes in which current alignment is an issue, a general method for scenario design is presented, based on the characteristics of the poloidal current density profile.

  8. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babayev, G.; Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouël, J.-L.

    2010-12-01

    A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations), and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan) to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA), vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence), and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  9. Toward a sensor-based threat warning system for patrols in MOUT scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metzler, Jürgen; Willersinn, Dieter

    2007-04-01

    Military Operations in Urban Terrain (MOUT) require the capability to perceive and to analyse the situation around a patrol in order to recognize potential threats. Human operators can only observe a limited field of regard. Sensors can enhance the field of regard up to 360°, but then the amount of data cannot be fully exploited by a human operator any more. For this reason an intelligent assistance system is required that monitors the circumference of a moving platform and warns the driver of a threatening situation. One first processing step of such a system is the recognition of humans. There are numerous approaches to the detection of humans, mainly from stationary cameras. Moving cameras play a role in the field of pedestrian protection from a moving road vehicle. There are two principal differences to this latter application domain. Firstly, the threat in a MOUT scenario potentially arises from humans in the scene. Secondly, not only the trajectories of individual humans are relevant, but also the motion and the behavior of groups of humans. As a first step towards an assistance system that automatically warns drivers in a MOUT scenario, we implemented an approach to the detection of humans in video images and applied them to a relevant set of image sequences taken in a MOUT scenario. In the paper we assess the obtained results and outline further research activities.

  10. Tsunami hazard potential for the equatorial southwestern Pacific atolls of Tokelau from scenario-based simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orpin, Alan R.; Rickard, Graham J.; Gerring, Peter K.; Lamarche, Geoffroy

    2016-05-01

    Devastating tsunami over the last decade have significantly heightened awareness of the potential consequences and vulnerability of low-lying Pacific islands and coastal regions. Our appraisal of the potential tsunami hazard for the atolls of the Tokelau Islands is based on a tsunami source-propagation-inundation model using Gerris Flow Solver, adapted from the companion study by Lamarche et al. (2015) for the islands of Wallis and Futuna. We assess whether there is potential for tsunami flooding on any of the village islets from a selection of 14 earthquake-source experiments. These earthquake sources are primarily based on the largest Pacific earthquakes of Mw ≥ 8.1 since 1950 and other large credible sources of tsunami that may impact Tokelau. Earthquake-source location and moment magnitude are related to tsunami-wave amplitudes and tsunami flood depths simulated for each of the three atolls of Tokelau. This approach yields instructive results for a community advisory but is not intended to be fully deterministic. Rather, the underlying aim is to identify credible sources that present the greatest potential to trigger an emergency response. Results from our modelling show that wave fields are channelled by the bathymetry of the Pacific basin in such a way that the swathes of the highest waves sweep immediately northeast of the Tokelau Islands. Our limited simulations suggest that trans-Pacific tsunami from distant earthquake sources to the north of Tokelau pose the most significant inundation threat. In particular, our assumed worst-case scenario for the Kuril Trench generated maximum modelled-wave amplitudes in excess of 1 m, which may last a few hours and include several wave trains. Other sources can impact specific sectors of the atolls, particularly distant earthquakes from Chile and Peru, and regional earthquake sources to the south. Flooding is dependent on the wave orientation and direct alignment to the incoming tsunami. Our "worst-case" tsunami

  11. Applying human factors principles to alert design increases efficiency and reduces prescribing errors in a scenario-based simulation

    PubMed Central

    Russ, Alissa L; Zillich, Alan J; Melton, Brittany L; Russell, Scott A; Chen, Siying; Spina, Jeffrey R; Weiner, Michael; Johnson, Elizabette G; Daggy, Joanne K; McManus, M Sue; Hawsey, Jason M; Puleo, Anthony G; Doebbeling, Bradley N; Saleem, Jason J

    2014-01-01

    Objective To apply human factors engineering principles to improve alert interface design. We hypothesized that incorporating human factors principles into alerts would improve usability, reduce workload for prescribers, and reduce prescribing errors. Materials and methods We performed a scenario-based simulation study using a counterbalanced, crossover design with 20 Veterans Affairs prescribers to compare original versus redesigned alerts. We redesigned drug–allergy, drug–drug interaction, and drug–disease alerts based upon human factors principles. We assessed usability (learnability of redesign, efficiency, satisfaction, and usability errors), perceived workload, and prescribing errors. Results Although prescribers received no training on the design changes, prescribers were able to resolve redesigned alerts more efficiently (median (IQR): 56 (47) s) compared to the original alerts (85 (71) s; p=0.015). In addition, prescribers rated redesigned alerts significantly higher than original alerts across several dimensions of satisfaction. Redesigned alerts led to a modest but significant reduction in workload (p=0.042) and significantly reduced the number of prescribing errors per prescriber (median (range): 2 (1–5) compared to original alerts: 4 (1–7); p=0.024). Discussion Aspects of the redesigned alerts that likely contributed to better prescribing include design modifications that reduced usability-related errors, providing clinical data closer to the point of decision, and displaying alert text in a tabular format. Displaying alert text in a tabular format may help prescribers extract information quickly and thereby increase responsiveness to alerts. Conclusions This simulation study provides evidence that applying human factors design principles to medication alerts can improve usability and prescribing outcomes. PMID:24668841

  12. Performance-Based Services Acquisition

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-02-01

    20Lessons%20Learned.pdf Kaplan , R. S., & Norton , D. P. (1992). “The balanced scorecard —Measures that drive performance.” Harvard Business Review...what you get: the measures you use strongly affect the behavior of your managers and employees” ( Kaplan and Norton 1992). Metric-based incentives...purposely separate authority and responsibility in order to minimize the opportunity for fraud. This checks and balances system has resulted in a

  13. Assessments of direct human exposure: the approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2007-08-01

    The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.

  14. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  15. A Case-Based Scenario with Interdisciplinary Guided-Inquiry in Chemistry and Biology: Experiences of First Year Forensic Science Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cresswell, Sarah L.; Loughlin, Wendy A.

    In this paper, insight into forensic science students' experiences of a case-based scenario with an interdisciplinary guided-inquiry experience in chemistry and biology is presented. Evaluation of student experiences and interest showed that the students were engaged with all aspects of the case-based scenario, including the curriculum theory…

  16. Analytic Performance Prediction of Track-to-Track Association with Biased Data in Multi-Sensor Multi-Target Tracking Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Tian, Wei; Wang, Yue; Shan, Xiuming; Yang, Jian

    2013-01-01

    An analytic method for predicting the performance of track-to-track association (TTTA) with biased data in multi-sensor multi-target tracking scenarios is proposed in this paper. The proposed method extends the existing results of the bias-free situation by accounting for the impact of sensor biases. Since little insight of the intrinsic relationship between scenario parameters and the performance of TTTA can be obtained by numerical simulations, the proposed analytic approach is a potential substitute for the costly Monte Carlo simulation method. Analytic expressions are developed for the global nearest neighbor (GNN) association algorithm in terms of correct association probability. The translational biases of sensors are incorporated in the expressions, which provide good insight into how the TTTA performance is affected by sensor biases, as well as other scenario parameters, including the target spatial density, the extraneous track density and the average association uncertainty error. To show the validity of the analytic predictions, we compare them with the simulation results, and the analytic predictions agree reasonably well with the simulations in a large range of normally anticipated scenario parameters. PMID:24036583

  17. Analytic performance prediction of track-to-track association with biased data in multi-sensor multi-target tracking scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tian, Wei; Wang, Yue; Shan, Xiuming; Yang, Jian

    2013-09-12

    An analytic method for predicting the performance of track-to-track association (TTTA) with biased data in multi-sensor multi-target tracking scenarios is proposed in this paper. The proposed method extends the existing results of the bias-free situation by accounting for the impact of sensor biases. Since little insight of the intrinsic relationship between scenario parameters and the performance of TTTA can be obtained by numerical simulations, the proposed analytic approach is a potential substitute for the costly Monte Carlo simulation method. Analytic expressions are developed for the global nearest neighbor (GNN) association algorithm in terms of correct association probability. The translational biases of sensors are incorporated in the expressions, which provide good insight into how the TTTA performance is affected by sensor biases, as well as other scenario parameters, including the target spatial density, the extraneous track density and the average association uncertainty error. To show the validity of the analytic predictions, we compare them with the simulation results, and the analytic predictions agree reasonably well with the simulations in a large range of normally anticipated scenario parameters.

  18. Comparison and Computational Performance of Tsunami-HySEA and MOST Models for the LANTEX 2013 scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González-Vida, Jose M.; Macías, Jorge; Mercado, Aurelio; Ortega, Sergio; Castro, Manuel J.

    2017-04-01

    Tsunami-HySEA model is used to simulate the Caribbean LANTEX 2013 scenario (LANTEX is the acronym for Large AtlaNtic Tsunami EXercise, which is carried out annually). The numerical simulation of the propagation and inundation phases, is performed with both models but using different mesh resolutions and nested meshes. Some comparisons with the MOST tsunami model available at the University of Puerto Rico (UPR) are made. Both models compare well for propagating tsunami waves in open sea, producing very similar results. In near-shore shallow waters, Tsunami-HySEA should be compared with the inundation version of MOST, since the propagation version of MOST is limited to deeper waters. Regarding the inundation phase, a 1 arc-sec (approximately 30 m) resolution mesh covering all of Puerto Rico, is used, and a three-level nested meshes technique implemented. In the inundation phase, larger differences between model results are observed. Nevertheless, the most striking difference resides in computational time; Tsunami-HySEA is coded using the advantages of GPU architecture, and can produce a 4 h simulation in a 60 arcsec resolution grid for the whole Caribbean Sea in less than 4 min with a single general-purpose GPU and as fast as 11 s with 32 general-purpose GPUs. In the inundation stage with nested meshes, approximately 8 hours of wall clock time is needed for a 2-h simulation in a single GPU (versus more than 2 days for the MOST inundation, running three different parts of the island—West, Center, East—at the same time due to memory limitations in MOST). When domain decomposition techniques are finally implemented by breaking up the computational domain into sub-domains and assigning a GPU to each sub-domain (multi-GPU Tsunami-HySEA version), we show that the wall clock time significantly decreases, allowing high-resolution inundation modelling in very short computational times, reducing, for example, if eight GPUs are used, the wall clock time to around 1 hour

  19. The use of open-ended problem-based learning scenarios in an interdisciplinary biotechnology class: evaluation of a problem-based learning course across three years.

    PubMed

    Steck, Todd R; Dibiase, Warren; Wang, Chuang; Boukhtiarov, Anatoli

    2012-01-01

    Use of open-ended Problem-Based Learning (PBL) in biology classrooms has been limited by the difficulty in designing problem scenarios such that the content learned in a course can be predicted and controlled, the lack of familiarity of this method of instruction by faculty, and the difficulty in assessment. Here we present the results of a study in which we developed a team-based interdisciplinary course that combined the fields of biology and civil engineering across three years. We used PBL scenarios as the only learning tool, wrote the problem scenarios, and developed the means to assess these courses and the results of that assessment. Our data indicates that PBL changed students' perception of their learning in content knowledge and promoted a change in students' learning styles. Although no statistically significant improvement in problem-solving skills and critical thinking skills was observed, students reported substantial changes in their problem-based learning strategies and critical thinking skills.

  20. A Social-Constructivist Adaptation of Case-Based Reasoning: Integrating oal-Based Scenarios with Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hung, David; Chen, Der-Thanq; Tan, Seng Chee

    2003-01-01

    Proposes a social constructivist adaptation of case-based reasoning (CBR) by incorporating computer-supported collaborative learning tools into the thinking and reasoning process. Explains goal-based scenarios (GBS) as translations of CBR into simulated learning environments and discusses the incorporation of facilitation cues and the inclusion of…

  1. [New paradigm for soil and water conservation: a method based on watershed process modeling and scenario analysis].

    PubMed

    Zhu, A-Xing; Chen, La-Jiao; Qin, Cheng-Zhi; Wang, Ping; Liu, Jun-Zhi; Li, Run-Kui; Cai, Qiang-Guo

    2012-07-01

    With the increase of severe soil erosion problem, soil and water conservation has become an urgent concern for sustainable development. Small watershed experimental observation is the traditional paradigm for soil and water control. However, the establishment of experimental watershed usually takes long time, and has the limitations of poor repeatability and high cost. Moreover, the popularization of the results from the experimental watershed is limited for other areas due to the differences in watershed conditions. Therefore, it is not sufficient to completely rely on this old paradigm for soil and water loss control. Recently, scenario analysis based on watershed modeling has been introduced into watershed management, which can provide information about the effectiveness of different management practices based on the quantitative simulation of watershed processes. Because of its merits such as low cost, short period, and high repeatability, scenario analysis shows great potential in aiding the development of watershed management strategy. This paper elaborated a new paradigm using watershed modeling and scenario analysis for soil and water conservation, illustrated this new paradigm through two cases for practical watershed management, and explored the future development of this new soil and water conservation paradigm.

  2. DRME: Count-based differential RNA methylation analysis at small sample size scenario.

    PubMed

    Liu, Lian; Zhang, Shao-Wu; Gao, Fan; Zhang, Yixin; Huang, Yufei; Chen, Runsheng; Meng, Jia

    2016-04-15

    Differential methylation, which concerns difference in the degree of epigenetic regulation via methylation between two conditions, has been formulated as a beta or beta-binomial distribution to address the within-group biological variability in sequencing data. However, a beta or beta-binomial model is usually difficult to infer at small sample size scenario with discrete reads count in sequencing data. On the other hand, as an emerging research field, RNA methylation has drawn more and more attention recently, and the differential analysis of RNA methylation is significantly different from that of DNA methylation due to the impact of transcriptional regulation. We developed DRME to better address the differential RNA methylation problem. The proposed model can effectively describe within-group biological variability at small sample size scenario and handles the impact of transcriptional regulation on RNA methylation. We tested the newly developed DRME algorithm on simulated and 4 MeRIP-Seq case-control studies and compared it with Fisher's exact test. It is in principle widely applicable to several other RNA-related data types as well, including RNA Bisulfite sequencing and PAR-CLIP. The code together with an MeRIP-Seq dataset is available online (https://github.com/lzcyzm/DRME) for evaluation and reproduction of the figures shown in this article.

  3. Performance Evaluation of Analog Beamforming with Hardware Impairments for mmW Massive MIMO Communication in an Urban Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Gimenez, Sonia; Roger, Sandra; Baracca, Paolo; Martín-Sacristán, David; Monserrat, Jose F.; Braun, Volker; Halbauer, Hardy

    2016-01-01

    The use of massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) techniques for communication at millimeter-Wave (mmW) frequency bands has become a key enabler to meet the data rate demands of the upcoming fifth generation (5G) cellular systems. In particular, analog and hybrid beamforming solutions are receiving increasing attention as less expensive and more power efficient alternatives to fully digital precoding schemes. Despite their proven good performance in simple setups, their suitability for realistic cellular systems with many interfering base stations and users is still unclear. Furthermore, the performance of massive MIMO beamforming and precoding methods are in practice also affected by practical limitations and hardware constraints. In this sense, this paper assesses the performance of digital precoding and analog beamforming in an urban cellular system with an accurate mmW channel model under both ideal and realistic assumptions. The results show that analog beamforming can reach the performance of fully digital maximum ratio transmission under line of sight conditions and with a sufficient number of parallel radio-frequency (RF) chains, especially when the practical limitations of outdated channel information and per antenna power constraints are considered. This work also shows the impact of the phase shifter errors and combiner losses introduced by real phase shifter and combiner implementations over analog beamforming, where the former ones have minor impact on the performance, while the latter ones determine the optimum number of RF chains to be used in practice. PMID:27669241

  4. Performance Evaluation of Analog Beamforming with Hardware Impairments for mmW Massive MIMO Communication in an Urban Scenario.

    PubMed

    Gimenez, Sonia; Roger, Sandra; Baracca, Paolo; Martín-Sacristán, David; Monserrat, Jose F; Braun, Volker; Halbauer, Hardy

    2016-09-22

    The use of massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) techniques for communication at millimeter-Wave (mmW) frequency bands has become a key enabler to meet the data rate demands of the upcoming fifth generation (5G) cellular systems. In particular, analog and hybrid beamforming solutions are receiving increasing attention as less expensive and more power efficient alternatives to fully digital precoding schemes. Despite their proven good performance in simple setups, their suitability for realistic cellular systems with many interfering base stations and users is still unclear. Furthermore, the performance of massive MIMO beamforming and precoding methods are in practice also affected by practical limitations and hardware constraints. In this sense, this paper assesses the performance of digital precoding and analog beamforming in an urban cellular system with an accurate mmW channel model under both ideal and realistic assumptions. The results show that analog beamforming can reach the performance of fully digital maximum ratio transmission under line of sight conditions and with a sufficient number of parallel radio-frequency (RF) chains, especially when the practical limitations of outdated channel information and per antenna power constraints are considered. This work also shows the impact of the phase shifter errors and combiner losses introduced by real phase shifter and combiner implementations over analog beamforming, where the former ones have minor impact on the performance, while the latter ones determine the optimum number of RF chains to be used in practice.

  5. Increasing Plant Based Foods or Dairy Foods Differentially Affects Nutrient Intakes: Dietary Scenarios Using NHANES 2007-2010.

    PubMed

    Cifelli, Christopher J; Houchins, Jenny A; Demmer, Elieke; Fulgoni, Victor L

    2016-07-11

    Diets rich in plant foods and lower in animal-based products have garnered increased attention among researchers, dietitians and health professionals in recent years for their potential to, not only improve health, but also to lessen the environmental impact. However, the potential effects of increasing plant-based foods at the expense of animal-based foods on macro- and micronutrient nutrient adequacy in the U.S. diet is unknown. In addition, dairy foods are consistently under consumed, thus the impact of increased dairy on nutrient adequacy is important to measure. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to use national survey data to model three different dietary scenarios to assess the effects of increasing plant-based foods or dairy foods on macronutrient intake and nutrient adequacy. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2010 for persons two years and older (n = 17,387) were used in all the analyses. Comparisons were made of usual intake of macronutrients and shortfall nutrients of three dietary scenarios that increased intakes by 100%: (i) plant-based foods; (ii) protein-rich plant-based foods (i.e., legumes, nuts, seeds, soy); and (iii) milk, cheese and yogurt. Scenarios (i) and (ii) had commensurate reductions in animal product intake. In both children (2-18 years) and adults (≥19 years), the percent not meeting the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) decreased for vitamin C, magnesium, vitamin E, folate and iron when plant-based foods were increased. However the percent not meeting the EAR increased for calcium, protein, vitamin A, and vitamin D in this scenario. Doubling protein-rich plant-based foods had no effect on nutrient intake because they were consumed in very low quantities in the baseline diet. The dairy model reduced the percent not meeting the EAR for calcium, vitamin A, vitamin D, magnesium, and protein, while sodium and saturated fat levels increased. Our modeling shows that increasing plant-based

  6. Increasing Plant Based Foods or Dairy Foods Differentially Affects Nutrient Intakes: Dietary Scenarios Using NHANES 2007–2010

    PubMed Central

    Cifelli, Christopher J.; Houchins, Jenny A.; Demmer, Elieke; Fulgoni, Victor L.

    2016-01-01

    Diets rich in plant foods and lower in animal-based products have garnered increased attention among researchers, dietitians and health professionals in recent years for their potential to, not only improve health, but also to lessen the environmental impact. However, the potential effects of increasing plant-based foods at the expense of animal-based foods on macro- and micronutrient nutrient adequacy in the U.S. diet is unknown. In addition, dairy foods are consistently under consumed, thus the impact of increased dairy on nutrient adequacy is important to measure. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to use national survey data to model three different dietary scenarios to assess the effects of increasing plant-based foods or dairy foods on macronutrient intake and nutrient adequacy. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007–2010 for persons two years and older (n = 17,387) were used in all the analyses. Comparisons were made of usual intake of macronutrients and shortfall nutrients of three dietary scenarios that increased intakes by 100%: (i) plant-based foods; (ii) protein-rich plant-based foods (i.e., legumes, nuts, seeds, soy); and (iii) milk, cheese and yogurt. Scenarios (i) and (ii) had commensurate reductions in animal product intake. In both children (2–18 years) and adults (≥19 years), the percent not meeting the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) decreased for vitamin C, magnesium, vitamin E, folate and iron when plant-based foods were increased. However the percent not meeting the EAR increased for calcium, protein, vitamin A, and vitamin D in this scenario. Doubling protein-rich plant-based foods had no effect on nutrient intake because they were consumed in very low quantities in the baseline diet. The dairy model reduced the percent not meeting the EAR for calcium, vitamin A, vitamin D, magnesium, and protein, while sodium and saturated fat levels increased. Our modeling shows that increasing plant-based

  7. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    PubMed

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  8. Drug-related problems in geriatric rehabilitation patients after discharge - A prevalence analysis and clinical case scenario-based pilot study.

    PubMed

    Freyer, Johanna; Hueter, Lucie; Kasprick, Lysann; Frese, Thomas; Sultzer, Ralf; Schiek, Susanne; Bertsche, Thilo

    2017-07-25

    Geriatric patients bear a high risk for having drug-related problems (DRPs). Transitions of care are especially susceptible to these DRPs. To highlight the prevalence of DRPs in geriatric patients' post-discharge medication lists and to assess physicians' ability to identify DRPs by using clinical case scenarios. A sequential prospective mixed-method study was performed. In a DRP prevalence analysis, an expert panel of clinical pharmacists analyzed DRPs in post-discharge medication lists of long-term hospitalized patients from a German inpatient geriatric rehabilitation center. Based on these results, the expert panel created two clinical case scenarios with applicable medication history. The cases were reflective of the most commonly identified DRPs. They were provided to hospital physicians and general practitioners (GPs) for assessment. Physicians were asked whether they approve the prescriptions in the clinical case scenarios. If a physician had not identified a prescription containing a defined DRP, the clinical pharmacist then provided drug information about it. With this, physicians' ability to identify DRPs and their response to a theoretical intervention was assessed. DRP prevalence analysis: A total of 639 prescriptions were analyzed from 63 enrolled patients of whom 52 (83%) were affected by at least one DRP. Twenty-eight hospital physicians and 26 GPs have been assessed. They identified 172 (46%) from 378 possible DRPs (seven DRPs multiplied by 54 physicians). For unidentified DRPs, physicians received tailored drug information and the number of identified DRPs rose to 298 (79%). A clear majority of patients were affected by DRPs. However, the results from the following pilot study confirm that many DRPs at care transitions can be reduced by providing applicable medication history and drug information. This intervention can be done by clinical pharmacists as part of the multidisciplinary care team in routine care. Geriatric patients bear a high risk

  9. FPGA Based High Performance Computing

    SciTech Connect

    Bennett, Dave; Mason, Jeff; Sundararajan, Prasanna; Dellinger, Erik; Putnam, Andrew; Storaasli, Olaf O

    2008-01-01

    Current high performance computing (HPC) applications are found in many consumer, industrial and research fields. From web searches to auto crash simulations to weather predictions, these applications require large amounts of power by the compute farms and supercomputers required to run them. The demand for more and faster computation continues to increase along with an even sharper increase in the cost of the power required to operate and cool these installations. The ability of standard processor based systems to address these needs has declined in both speed of computation and in power consumption over the past few years. This paper presents a new method of computation based upon programmable logic as represented by Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) that addresses these needs in a manner requiring only minimal changes to the current software design environment.

  10. A methanotroph-based biorefinery: Potential scenarios for generating multiple products from a single fermentation.

    PubMed

    Strong, P J; Kalyuzhnaya, M; Silverman, J; Clarke, W P

    2016-09-01

    Methane, a carbon source for methanotrophic bacteria, is the principal component of natural gas and is produced during anaerobic digestion of organic matter (biogas). Methanotrophs are a viable source of single cell protein (feed supplement) and can produce various products, since they accumulate osmolytes (e.g. ectoine, sucrose), phospholipids (potential biofuels) and biopolymers (polyhydroxybutyrate, glycogen), among others. Other cell components, such as surface layers, metal chelating proteins (methanobactin), enzymes (methane monooxygenase) or heterologous proteins hold promise as future products. Here, scenarios are presented where ectoine, polyhydroxybutyrate or protein G are synthesised as the primary product, in conjunction with a variety of ancillary products that could enhance process viability. Single or dual-stage processes and volumetric requirements for bioreactors are discussed, in terms of an annual biomass output of 1000 tonnesyear(-1). Product yields are discussed in relation to methane and oxygen consumption and organic waste generation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Base-Case 1% Yield Increase (BC1), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

    DOE Data Explorer

    Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron (ORCID:0000000320373827)

    2016-07-13

    Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the base-case scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 1% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

  12. Environmental implications of large-scale adoption of wind power: a scenario-based life cycle assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arvesen, Anders; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the potential environmental impacts of a large-scale adoption of wind power to meet up to 22% of the world’s growing electricity demand. The analysis builds on life cycle assessments of generic onshore and offshore wind farms, meant to represent average conditions for global deployment of wind power. We scale unit-based findings to estimate aggregated emissions of building, operating and decommissioning wind farms toward 2050, taking into account changes in the electricity mix in manufacturing. The energy scenarios investigated are the International Energy Agency’s BLUE scenarios. We estimate 1.7-2.6 Gt CO2-eq climate change, 2.1-3.2 Mt N-eq marine eutrophication, 9.2-14 Mt NMVOC photochemical oxidant formation, and 9.5-15 Mt SO2-eq terrestrial acidification impact category indicators due to global wind power in 2007-50. Assuming lifetimes 5 yr longer than reference, the total climate change indicator values are reduced by 8%. In the BLUE Map scenario, construction of new capacity contributes 64%, and repowering of existing capacity 38%, to total cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The total emissions of wind electricity range between 4% and 14% of the direct emissions of the replaced fossil-fueled power plants. For all impact categories, the indirect emissions of displaced fossil power are larger than the total emissions caused by wind power.

  13. The Nankai Trough earthquake tsunamis in Korea: numerical studies of the 1707 Hoei earthquake and physics-based scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, SatByul; Saito, Tatsuhiko; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Kang, Tae-Seob

    2016-04-01

    Historical documents in Korea and China report abnormal waves in the sea and rivers close to the date of the 1707 Hoei earthquake, which occurred in the Nankai Trough, off southwestern Japan. This indicates that the tsunami caused by the Hoei earthquake might have reached Korea and China, which suggests a potential hazard in Korea from large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. We conducted tsunami simulations to study the details of tsunamis in Korea caused by large earthquakes. Our results showed that the Hoei earthquake (Mw 8.8) tsunami reached the Korean Peninsula about 200 min after the earthquake occurred. The maximum tsunami height was ~0.5 m along the Korean coast. The model of the Hoei earthquake predicted a long-lasting tsunami whose highest peak arrived 600 min later after the first arrival near the coastline of Jeju Island. In addition, we conducted tsunami simulations using physics-based scenarios of anticipated earthquakes in the Nankai subduction zone. The maximum tsunami height in the scenarios (Mw 8.5-8.6) was ~0.4 m along the Korean coast. As a simple evaluation of larger possible tsunamis, we increased the amount of stress released by the earthquake by a factor of two and three, resulting in scenarios for Mw 8.8 and 8.9 earthquakes, respectively. The tsunami height increased by 0.1-0.4 m compared to that estimated by the Hoei earthquake.

  14. Future efficiency of run of the river hydropower schemes based on climate change scenarios: case study in UK catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasten Zapata, Ernesto; Moggridge, Helen; Jones, Julie; Widmann, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Run-of-the-River (ROR) hydropower schemes are expected to be importantly affected by climate change as they rely in the availability of river flow to generate energy. As temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future, the hydrological cycle will also undergo changes. Therefore, climate models based on complex physical atmospheric interactions have been developed to simulate future climate scenarios considering the atmosphere's greenhouse gas concentrations. These scenarios are classified according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that are generated according to the concentration of greenhouse gases. This study evaluates possible scenarios for selected ROR hydropower schemes within the UK, considering three different RCPs: 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2100 relative to pre-industrial values. The study sites cover different climate, land cover, topographic and hydropower scheme characteristics representative of the UK's heterogeneity. Precipitation and temperature outputs from state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Euro-CORDEX project are used as input for a HEC-HMS hydrological model to simulate the future river flow available. Both uncorrected and bias-corrected RCM simulations are analyzed. The results of this project provide an insight of the possible effects of climate change towards the generation of power from the ROR hydropower schemes according to the different RCP scenarios and contrasts the results obtained from uncorrected and bias-corrected RCMs. This analysis can aid on the adaptation to climate change as well as the planning of future ROR schemes in the region.

  15. Scenario-based impact analysis of disaster risks exploring potential implications for disaster prevention strategies in spatial and urban planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lüke, J.; Wenzel, F.; Vogt, J.

    2009-04-01

    The project deals with scenario techniques to assess, estimate, and communicate the potential consequences of natural disasters on risk governance arrangements. It aims to create a methodology which allows the development of disaster scenarios for different types of natural hazards. This enables relevant stakeholders to derive planning strategies to prevent harmful damage to the community through adequate adaptation. Some main questions in the project are: - How do changing boundary conditions in economic, social and ecological systems influence the significance and the benefit of existent risk analysis as a basis for spatial planning decisions? - Which factors represent or influence the forecast uncertainty of existent extrapolations within the scope of risk analysis? Which of these uncertainties have spatial relevance? (Which go beyond sectoral considerations of risk? Which refer to reservations concerning spatial development? Which influence a community as a whole?) - How can we quantify these uncertainties? Do they change according to altered hazards or vulnerabilities? - How does the explored risk vary, once quantified uncertainties are integrated into current extrapolations? What are the implications for spatial planning activities? - Which software application is suitable to visualize and communicate the scenario methodology? The work is mainly based on existing results of previous hazard analysis and vulnerability studies which have been carried out by the Center of Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) for the federal state of Baden-Württemberg. Existing data concern the risk of damages on residential buildings, industrial and traffic infrastructure, social and economic vulnerability. We will link this data with various assumptions of potentially changing economic, social and built environments and visualize those using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Although the scenario methodology is conceived as a multi-hazard oriented and

  16. Scenario-based assessment of buildings damage and population exposure due to tsunamis for the town of Alexandria, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagnoni, G.; Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.

    2015-08-01

    Alexandria is the second biggest city in Egypt as regards population, is a key economic area in northern Africa and has a very important tourist activity. Historical catalogues indicate that it was severely affected by a number of tsunami events. In this work we assess the tsunami hazard by running numerical simulations of tsunami impact in Alexandria through the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA). We identify three main seismic sources: the Western Hellenic Arc (WHA - reference event AD 365, Mw = 8.5), the Eastern Hellenic Arc (EHA - reference event 1303, Mw = 8.0) and the Cyprus Arc (CA - hypothetical scenario earthquake with Mw = 8.0), inferred from the tectonic setting and from historical tsunami catalogues. All numerical simulations are carried out by means of the code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. Relevant tsunami metrics are computed for each scenario and then used to build aggregated fields such as the maximum flood depth and the maximum inundation area. We find that the case that produces the most relevant flooding in Alexandria is the EHA scenario, with wave heights up to 4 m. The aggregate fields are used for a building vulnerability assessment according to a methodology developed in the frame of the EU-FP6 project SCHEMA and further refined in this study, based on the adoption of a suitable building damage matrix and on water inundation depth. It is found that in the districts of El Dekhila and Al Amriyah, to the south-west of the port of Dekhila over 12 000 buildings could be affected and hundreds of them could incur in consequences ranging from important damage to total collapse. It is also found that in the same districts tsunami inundation covers an area of about 15 km2 resulting in more than 150 000 residents being exposed.

  17. The use of multimedia clinical case scenario software in a problem-based learning course: impact on faculty workload and student learning outcomes.

    PubMed

    Maldonado, Rebecca

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of using multimedia clinical case scenario software in lieu of text-based problem-based learning (PBL) cases. The specific interests in this study were student learning outcomes and facilitator utilization. The study was conducted with one cohort of 39 physician assistant (PA) students using the seven text-based PBL cases and adding one DxR Clinician software case. Faculty members facilitated each case. A second cohort of 41 PA students completed a blended curriculum of four PBL text cases and four DxR Clinician cases, including the same case used by the first cohort. The students' clinical reasoning case scores for each cohort were compared using a two-tailed unpaired t-test. During the second cohort's use of the DxR clinician cases, facilitators were available to the students upon request. Facilitator hours for each case in both cohorts were tabulated. A quantitative analysis of faculty time commitment was performed comparing the cohorts using a paired t-test. The clinical reasoning score between cohorts increased 12% with the increased use of multimedia clinical case scenario software. The savings in faculty facilitator time was 41% using the blended curriculum of text-based cases and multimedia cases. This time savings could potentially rise to 92% using multimedia cases exclusively. The use of multimedia clinical case scenario software offers an exciting opportunity to encourage clinical reasoning skills using an updated format for PBL. Additionally, the faculty time savings due to decreased PBL facilitation would allow more programs to incorporate PBL into their curriculum.

  18. Scenario-based modeling for multiple allocation hub location problem under disruption risk: multiple cuts Benders decomposition approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yahyaei, Mohsen; Bashiri, Mahdi

    2017-03-01

    The hub location problem arises in a variety of domains such as transportation and telecommunication systems. In many real-world situations, hub facilities are subject to disruption. This paper deals with the multiple allocation hub location problem in the presence of facilities failure. To model the problem, a two-stage stochastic formulation is developed. In the proposed model, the number of scenarios grows exponentially with the number of facilities. To alleviate this issue, two approaches are applied simultaneously. The first approach is to apply sample average approximation to approximate the two stochastic problem via sampling. Then, by applying the multiple cuts Benders decomposition approach, computational performance is enhanced. Numerical studies show the effective performance of the SAA in terms of optimality gap for small problem instances with numerous scenarios. Moreover, performance of multi-cut Benders decomposition is assessed through comparison with the classic version and the computational results reveal the superiority of the multi-cut approach regarding the computational time and number of iterations.

  19. Performance evaluation of a texture-based segmentation algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadjadi, Firooz A.

    1991-07-01

    Texture segmentations are crucial components of many remote sensing, scene analysis, and object recognition systems. However, very little attention has been paid to the problem of performance evaluation in the numerous algorithms that have been proposed by the image understanding community. In this paper, a particular algorithm is introduced and its performance is evaluated in a systematic manner on a wide range of scene and scenarios. Both the algorithm and the methodology used in its evaluation have significance in numerous applications in the computer-based image understanding field.

  20. Spatial, temporal and frequency based climate change assessment in Columbia River Basin using multi downscaled-scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2016-07-01

    Uncertainties in climate modelling are well documented in literature. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to downscale the climatic parameters on a regional scale. In the present work, we have analyzed the changes in precipitation and temperature for future scenario period of 2070-2099 with respect to historical period of 1970-2000 from statistically downscaled GCM projections in Columbia River Basin (CRB). Analysis is performed using two different statistically downscaled climate projections (with ten GCMs downscaled products each, for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, from CMIP5 dataset) namely, those from the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, totaling to 40 different scenarios. The two datasets for BCSD and MACA are downscaled from observed data for both scenarios projections i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Analysis is performed using spatial change (yearly scale), temporal change (monthly scale), percentile change (seasonal scale), quantile change (yearly scale), and wavelet analysis (yearly scale) in the future period from the historical period, respectively, at a scale of 1/16th of degree for entire CRB region. Results have indicated in varied degree of spatial change pattern for the entire Columbia River Basin, especially western part of the basin. At temporal scales, winter precipitation has higher variability than summer and vice versa for temperature. Most of the models have indicated considerate positive change in quantiles and percentiles for both precipitation and temperature. Wavelet analysis provided insights into possible explanation to changes in precipitation.

  1. HIV/STI risk communication: the effects of scenario-based risk information and frequency-based risk information on perceived susceptibility to chlamydia and HIV.

    PubMed

    Mevissen, Fraukje E F; Meertens, Ree M; Ruiter, Robert A C; Feenstra, Hans; Schaalma, Herman P

    2009-01-01

    Health risk judgments are not merely based on risk statistics but also on the ease with which hypothetical events are imagined. We explored the effects of scenario information as opposed to frequency information on susceptibility perceptions regarding Chlamydia and HIV. Results showed that participants felt more susceptible to Chlamydia after reading frequency information. Scenario information only seemed to affect feelings of susceptibility in participants with no intimate relationship. No effects on perceived susceptibility for HIV were found. Results are discussed in terms of severity of the disease and defensive reactions.

  2. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, In Hyuck; Kim, Youngmin; Lee, Dong Kun; Shin, Jong Gye

    2014-03-01

    Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is be¬cause the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate) that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manu¬ally by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was su¬ggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

  3. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties.

    PubMed

    Lv, Y; Huang, G H; Guo, L; Li, Y P; Dai, C; Wang, X W; Sun, W

    2013-02-15

    Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents' consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks.

  4. Formation Of The Haumea System: Checking Alternative Scenarios By N-body Based Numerical Simulations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirouin, Audrey; Bagati, A. C.; Ortiz, J.; Duffard, R.; Benavidez, P.; Richardson, D.

    2010-10-01

    Haumea is one of the most studied and probably one of the most interesting Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) and a fast spinning dwarf planet (Rabinowitz et al., 2006; Thirouin et al. 2010) that has at least two satellites and whose orbital elements are related to a group/family of bodies. A catastrophic collision at high relative velocity (around 3 km/s) between two bodies in the 1000-1500 km size range and a mass ratio 0.2 has been suggested for the formation of the 'family' and the presence of satellites (Brown et al. 2007). Leinhardt et al. (2010) proposed another mechanism in which two 1300 km size bodies undergo a grazing collision with reacculumation of part of the mass and dispersion of the rest, partly into satellites. The likelihood of both scenarios is small when tested against collisional and dynamical evolution model predictions of collisional probabilities. Furthermore, these mechanisms have trouble in explaining the velocity dispersion of the family members and the fast spin of Haumea. Schlichting and Sari (2009) proposed that a former collision at low speed formed a proto-satellite that should lately undergo a final impact finally leading to the current observed system. In this work, we propose alternative mechanisms for the formation of the Haumea system ant test them by means of N-body numerical simulations (PKDGRAV code. Richardson, 1994).

  5. The multiscale importance of road segments in a network disruption scenario: a risk-based approach.

    PubMed

    Freiria, Susana; Tavares, Alexandre O; Pedro Julião, Rui

    2015-03-01

    This article addresses the problem of the multiscale importance of road networks, with the aim of helping to establish a more resilient network in the event of a road disruption scenario. A new model for identifying the most important roads is described and applied on a local and regional scale. The work presented here represents a step forward, since it focuses on the interaction between identifying the most important roads in a network that connect people and health services, the specificity of the natural hazards that threaten the normal functioning of the network, and an assessment of the consequences of three real-world interruptions from a multiscale perspective. The case studies concern three different past events: road interruptions due to a flood, a forest fire, and a mass movement. On the basis of the results obtained, it is possible to establish the roads for which risk management should be a priority. The multiscale perspective shows that in a road interruption the regional system may have the capacity to reorganize itself, although the interruption may have consequences for local dynamics. Coordination between local and regional scales is therefore important. The model proposed here allows for the scaling of emergency response facilities and human and physical resources. It represents an innovative approach to defining priorities, not only in the prevention phase but also in terms of the response to natural disasters, such as awareness of the consequences of road disruption for the rescue services sent out to local communities.

  6. Combined magnetic and kinetic control of advanced tokamak steady state scenarios based on semi-empirical modelling

    SciTech Connect

    Moreau, Didier; Artaud, J. F.; Ferron, John R.; Holcomb, Christopher T.; Humphreys, David A.; Liu, Feng; Luce, Timothy C.; Park, Jin Myung; Prater, Ronald; Turco, Francesca; Walker, Michael L.

    2015-05-01

    This paper shows that semi-empirical data-driven models based on a twotime- scale approximation for the magnetic and kinetic control of advanced tokamak (AT) scenarios can be advantageously identified from simulated rather than real data, and used for control design. The method is applied to the combined control of the safety factor profile, q(x), and normalized pressure parameter, βN, using DIII-D parameters and actuators (on-axis co-current neutral beam injection (NBI) power, off axis co-current NBI power, electron cyclotron current drive power, and ohmic coil). The approximate plasma response model was identified from simulated data obtained using a rapidly converging plasma transport code, METIS, which includes an MHD equilibrium and current diffusion solver, and combines plasma transport nonlinearity with 0-D scaling laws and 1.5-D ordinary differential equations. A number of open loop simulations were performed, in which the heating and current drive (H&CD) sources were randomly modulated around the typical values of a reference AT discharge on DIIID. Using these simulated data, a two-time-scale state space model was obtained for the coupled evolution of the poloidal flux profile and βN parameter, and a controller was synthesized based on the near-optimal ARTAEMIS algorithm [D. Moreau et al., Nucl. Fusion 53 (2013) 063020]. The paper discusses the results of closed-loop nonlinear simulations, using this controller for steady state AT operation. With feedforward plus feedback control, the steady state target q-profile and βN are satisfactorily tracked with a time scale of about ten seconds, despite large disturbances applied to the feedforward powers and plasma parameters. The effectiveness of the control algorithm is thus demonstrated for long pulse and steady state high-βN AT discharges. Its robustness with respect to disturbances of the H&CD actuators and of plasma parameters such as the H-factor, plasma density and

  7. Combined magnetic and kinetic control of advanced tokamak steady state scenarios based on semi-empirical modelling

    DOE PAGES

    Moreau, Didier; Artaud, J. F.; Ferron, John R.; ...

    2015-05-01

    This paper shows that semi-empirical data-driven models based on a twotime- scale approximation for the magnetic and kinetic control of advanced tokamak (AT) scenarios can be advantageously identified from simulated rather than real data, and used for control design. The method is applied to the combined control of the safety factor profile, q(x), and normalized pressure parameter, βN, using DIII-D parameters and actuators (on-axis co-current neutral beam injection (NBI) power, off axis co-current NBI power, electron cyclotron current drive power, and ohmic coil). The approximate plasma response model was identified from simulated data obtained using a rapidly converging plasma transportmore » code, METIS, which includes an MHD equilibrium and current diffusion solver, and combines plasma transport nonlinearity with 0-D scaling laws and 1.5-D ordinary differential equations. A number of open loop simulations were performed, in which the heating and current drive (H&CD) sources were randomly modulated around the typical values of a reference AT discharge on DIIID. Using these simulated data, a two-time-scale state space model was obtained for the coupled evolution of the poloidal flux profile and βN parameter, and a controller was synthesized based on the near-optimal ARTAEMIS algorithm [D. Moreau et al., Nucl. Fusion 53 (2013) 063020]. The paper discusses the results of closed-loop nonlinear simulations, using this controller for steady state AT operation. With feedforward plus feedback control, the steady state target q-profile and βN are satisfactorily tracked with a time scale of about ten seconds, despite large disturbances applied to the feedforward powers and plasma parameters. The effectiveness of the control algorithm is thus demonstrated for long pulse and steady state high-βN AT discharges. Its robustness with respect to disturbances of the H&CD actuators and of plasma parameters such as the H-factor, plasma density and effective charge, is also

  8. Study of the triton-burnup process in different JET scenarios using neutron monitor based on CVD diamond.

    PubMed

    Nemtsev, G; Amosov, V; Meshchaninov, S; Popovichev, S; Rodionov, R

    2016-11-01

    We present the results of analysis of triton burn-up process using the data from diamond detector. Neutron monitor based on CVD diamond was installed in JET torus hall close to the plasma center. We measure the part of 14 MeV neutrons in scenarios where plasma current varies in a range of 1-3 MA. In this experiment diamond neutron monitor was also able to detect strong gamma bursts produced by runaway electrons arising during the disruptions. We can conclude that CVD diamond detector will contribute to the study of fast particles confinement and help predict the disruption events in future tokamaks.

  9. Study of the triton-burnup process in different JET scenarios using neutron monitor based on CVD diamond

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nemtsev, G.; Amosov, V.; Meshchaninov, S.; Popovichev, S.; Rodionov, R.

    2016-11-01

    We present the results of analysis of triton burn-up process using the data from diamond detector. Neutron monitor based on CVD diamond was installed in JET torus hall close to the plasma center. We measure the part of 14 MeV neutrons in scenarios where plasma current varies in a range of 1-3 MA. In this experiment diamond neutron monitor was also able to detect strong gamma bursts produced by runaway electrons arising during the disruptions. We can conclude that CVD diamond detector will contribute to the study of fast particles confinement and help predict the disruption events in future tokamaks.

  10. A Scenario Based Approach to Separate the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Alteration on Daily Flow Regime Indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darabi, Hamid; Torabi Haghighi, Ali; Fazel, Nasim; Klöve, Björn

    2017-04-01

    Land use and climate changes have important impacts on water resources such as river flow regimes and they are often complicated to separate at the watershed scale. To separate impact, we develop a scenario based approach using remote sensing and hydro-climatological data. Using the framework, we assess the on hydrological indices in Marboreh watershed (headwater of Dez River which modified by the most important hydropower plant in Iran). The analysis is based on data from three Landsat TM images (1988, 1998 and 2008), meteorological data (1983-2012) at Aligudarz station and hydrological data (1983-2012) at Doroud gauge station. To carry out the study, the QUAC module and supervised classification (ML algorithm) in the ENVI 5.1, the SWAT model and Mann-Kendall method were used for remote sensing, hydrological modeling and trend analysis respectively. To analyses the impact of land use and climate changes, the studied period was divided into three decades (1983-1992, 1993-2002 and 2003-2012). For all periods, the land use maps were assigned based on the middle year of each decade (1988, 1998 and 2008). Then, 10 hydrological indices related to high flow and low flow indices (HDI and LDI) were analyzed for seven scenarios which were created by combining predefined climatic periods and land use maps. Base on the RS analysis, the major alterations in land use including degradation of natural rangeland (-18.49%) and increasing farming land (+16.70%) and residential area (+0.80%) were assessed from 1988 to 2008. The Mann-Kendall test indicates a statistically decreasing trend in rainfall induced runoff and increasing trend in the temperature at the 5% and 1% significance levels, respectively. The results of this study clearly showed that in Marboreh watershed is influenced by climate variability impact on hydrological indices more than land use change. Also, the present study demonstrated that the low flow indices were affected more than high flow indices in both climate

  11. Study of the triton-burnup process in different JET scenarios using neutron monitor based on CVD diamond

    SciTech Connect

    Nemtsev, G. Amosov, V.; Meshchaninov, S.; Rodionov, R.; Popovichev, S.; Collaboration: EUROfusion Consortium, JET, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB

    2016-11-15

    We present the results of analysis of triton burn-up process using the data from diamond detector. Neutron monitor based on CVD diamond was installed in JET torus hall close to the plasma center. We measure the part of 14 MeV neutrons in scenarios where plasma current varies in a range of 1-3 MA. In this experiment diamond neutron monitor was also able to detect strong gamma bursts produced by runaway electrons arising during the disruptions. We can conclude that CVD diamond detector will contribute to the study of fast particles confinement and help predict the disruption events in future tokamaks.

  12. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-10-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'—'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  13. DEROCS: A computer program to simulate offshore oil and natural gas development scenarios and onshore service base requirements

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marcus, Philip A.; Smith, E.T.; Robinson, S.R.; Wong, A.T.

    1977-01-01

    The FORTRAN IV (H) computer program, DEROCS, constructs Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) resource development scenarios and quantifies the requirements for and impacts of the operation of the onshore service bases necessary to support offshore oil and gas operations. The acronym DEROCS stands for 'Development of Energy Resources of the Outer Continental Shelf.' The user may specify the number, timing, and amounts of offshore oil and natural gas finds, onshore service base locations, and multiplier relationships between offshore development activities and onshore land, supply, labor and facility requirements. The program determines schedules of platform installation, development drilling, production from platforms, and well workover, and calculates on a yearly basis the requirements for and impacts of the operation of the onshore service bases demanded by offshore activities. We present two examples of program application.

  14. Exposure scenarios for workers.

    PubMed

    Marquart, Hans; Northage, Christine; Money, Chris

    2007-12-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate considerations of both human health and the environment. Specific aspects are relevant for worker exposure. Gathering information on the uses of the chemical is an important step in developing an Exposure Scenario. In-house information at manufacturers is an important source. Downstream users can contribute information through direct contact or through their associations. Relatively simple approaches (Tier 1 tools, such as the ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment and the model EASE) can be used to develop broad Exposure Scenarios that cover many use situations. These approaches rely on the categorisation of just a few determinants, including only a small number of risk management measures. Such approaches have a limited discriminatory power and are rather conservative. When the hazard of the substance or the complexity of the exposure situation require a more in-depth approach, further development of the Exposure Scenarios with Tier 2 approaches is needed. Measured data sets of worker exposure are very valuable in a Tier 2 approach. Some downstream user associations have attempted to build Exposure Scenarios based on measured data sets. Generic Tier 2 tools for developing Exposure Scenarios do not exist yet. To enable efficient development of the worker exposure part of Exposure Scenarios a further development of Tier 1 and Tier 2 tools is needed. Special attention should be given to user friendliness and to the validity (boundaries) of the approaches. The development of standard worker exposure descriptions or full Exposure Scenarios by downstream user branches in cooperation with manufacturers and importers is recommended.

  15. A Usability and Learnability Case Study of Glass Flight Deck Interfaces and Pilot Interactions through Scenario-based Training

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Cino, Thomas J., II

    In the aviation industry, digitally produced and presented flight, navigation, and aircraft information is commonly referred to as glass flight decks. Glass flight decks are driven by computer-based subsystems and have long been a part of military and commercial aviation sectors. Over the past 15 years, the General Aviation (GA) sector of the aviation industry has become a recent beneficiary of the rapid advancement of computer-based glass flight deck (GFD) systems. While providing the GA pilot considerable enhancements in the quality of information about the status and operations of the aircraft, training pilots on the use of glass flight decks is often delivered with traditional methods (e.g. textbooks, PowerPoint presentations, user manuals, and limited computer-based training modules). These training methods have been reported as less than desirable in learning to use the glass flight deck interface. Difficulties in achieving a complete understanding of functional and operational characteristics of the GFD systems, acquiring a full understanding of the interrelationships of the varied subsystems, and handling the wealth of flight information provided have been reported. Documented pilot concerns of poor user experience and satisfaction, and problems with the learning the complex and sophisticated interface of the GFD are additional issues with current pilot training approaches. A case study was executed to explore ways to improve training using GFD systems at a Midwestern aviation university. The researcher investigated if variations in instructional systems design and training methods for learning glass flight deck technology would affect the perceptions and attitudes of pilots of the learnability (an attribute of usability) of the glass flight deck interface. Specifically, this study investigated the effectiveness of scenario-based training (SBT) methods to potentially improve pilot knowledge and understanding of a GFD system, and overall pilot user

  16. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  17. A solution to the water resources crisis in wetlands: development of a scenario-based modeling approach with uncertain features.

    PubMed

    Lv, Ying; Huang, Guohe; Sun, Wei

    2013-01-01

    A scenario-based interval two-phase fuzzy programming (SITF) method was developed for water resources planning in a wetland ecosystem. The SITF approach incorporates two-phase fuzzy programming, interval mathematical programming, and scenario analysis within a general framework. It can tackle fuzzy and interval uncertainties in terms of cost coefficients, resources availabilities, water demands, hydrological conditions and other parameters within a multi-source supply and multi-sector consumption context. The SITF method has the advantage in effectively improving the membership degrees of the system objective and all fuzzy constraints, so that both higher satisfactory grade of the objective and more efficient utilization of system resources can be guaranteed. Under the systematic consideration of water demands by the ecosystem, the SITF method was successfully applied to Baiyangdian Lake, which is the largest wetland in North China. Multi-source supplies (including the inter-basin water sources of Yuecheng Reservoir and Yellow River), and multiple water users (including agricultural, industrial and domestic sectors) were taken into account. The results indicated that, the SITF approach would generate useful solutions to identify long-term water allocation and transfer schemes under multiple economic, environmental, ecological, and system-security targets. It can address a comparative analysis for the system satisfactory degrees of decisions under various policy scenarios. Moreover, it is of significance to quantify the relationship between hydrological change and human activities, such that a scheme on ecologically sustainable water supply to Baiyangdian Lake can be achieved. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

    2017-10-01

    Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO2-Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO2-Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH4 and N2O in treatment, and the further release of CH4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO2-Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  19. Seismic and Tsunami Waveform Simulation based on Dynamic Rupture Scenarios: Anticipated Nankai-Tonankai Earthquakes, Southwest Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saito, T.; Fukuyama, E.; Kim, S.

    2016-12-01

    Rupture scenarios of anticipated huge earthquakes based on earthquake physics and observational records should be useful for the hazard evaluation of future disastrous earthquakes. Hok et al. (2011, JGR) proposed possible dynamic rupture scenarios of anticipated Nankai-Tonankai huge earthquakes, southwest Japan using estimated slip deficit distribution and an appropriate fault friction law. These scenarios are quite useful to study the details of the wave propagation as well as potential earthquake and tsunami hazard (e.g. Kim et al. 2016, EPS). The objective in this study is to synthesize seismic and tsunami waveforms of the anticipated huge earthquakes, which could be useful for the future hazard assessment. We propose a method of synthesizing the waveforms, in particular, in the region of offshore focal area where seismic waves, ocean acoustic waves, and tsunamis simultaneously exist, which makes the wavefield very complicated. We calculated the seismic and tsunami waveforms caused by a dynamic rupture of huge earthquakes (Mw 8.5) southwestern Japan. There are two kinds of tsunami observations: ocean bottom pressure gauges detect tsunami as pressure change at the sea bottom and GPS tsunami gauges measure tsunami as vertical displacement at the sea surface. Our simulation results indicated that both tsunami records are significantly contaminated by seismic waves in a few minutes after the earthquake occurrence. The tsunami and seismic waves have different excitation mechanisms: seismic wave excitation strongly depends on the time scale of the rupture (moment rate), while tsunami excitation is determined by the static parameters (fault geometry and seismic moment). Therefore, for a reliable tsunami prediction, it is important to analyze observed tsunami records excluding the seismic waves that behave like tsunami near the source area.

  20. Evaluation of resident evacuations in urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters based on scenario simulation: Daoli district (Harbin, China) as an example.

    PubMed

    Chen, Peng; Zhang, Jiquan; Zhang, Lifeng; Sun, Yingyue

    2014-09-26

    With the acceleration of urbanization, waterlogging has become an increasingly serious issue. Road waterlogging has a great influence on residents' travel and traffic safety. Thus, evaluation of residents' travel difficulties caused by rainstorm waterlogging disasters is of great significance for their travel safety and emergency shelter needs. This study investigated urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters, evaluating the impact of the evolution of such disasters' evolution on residents' evacuation, using Daoli District (Harbin, China) as the research demonstration area to perform empirical research using a combination of scenario simulations, questionnaires, GIS spatial technology analysis and a hydrodynamics method to establish an urban rainstorm waterlogging numerical simulation model. The results show that under the conditions of a 10-year frequency rainstorm, there are three street sections in the study area with a high difficulty index, five street sections with medium difficulty index and the index is low at other districts, while under the conditions of a 50-year frequency rainstorm, there are five street sections with a high difficulty index, nine street sections with a medium difficulty index and the other districts all have a low index. These research results can help set the foundation for further small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster scenario simulations and emergency shelter planning as well as forecasting and warning, and provide a brand-new thought and research method for research on residents' safe travel.

  1. Evaluation of Resident Evacuations in Urban Rainstorm Waterlogging Disasters Based on Scenario Simulation: Daoli District (Harbin, China) as an Example

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Peng; Zhang, Jiquan; Zhang, Lifeng; Sun, Yingyue

    2014-01-01

    With the acceleration of urbanization, waterlogging has become an increasingly serious issue. Road waterlogging has a great influence on residents’ travel and traffic safety. Thus, evaluation of residents’ travel difficulties caused by rainstorm waterlogging disasters is of great significance for their travel safety and emergency shelter needs. This study investigated urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters, evaluating the impact of the evolution of such disasters’ evolution on residents’ evacuation, using Daoli District (Harbin, China) as the research demonstration area to perform empirical research using a combination of scenario simulations, questionnaires, GIS spatial technology analysis and a hydrodynamics method to establish an urban rainstorm waterlogging numerical simulation model. The results show that under the conditions of a 10-year frequency rainstorm, there are three street sections in the study area with a high difficulty index, five street sections with medium difficulty index and the index is low at other districts, while under the conditions of a 50-year frequency rainstorm, there are five street sections with a high difficulty index, nine street sections with a medium difficulty index and the other districts all have a low index. These research results can help set the foundation for further small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster scenario simulations and emergency shelter planning as well as forecasting and warning, and provide a brand-new thought and research method for research on residents’ safe travel. PMID:25264676

  2. Supporting Problem Solving with Case-Stories Learning Scenario and Video-Based Collaborative Learning Technology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hung, David; Tan, Seng Chee; Cheung, Wing Sum; Hu, Chun

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we suggest that case-based resources, which are used for assisting cognition during problem solving, can be structured around the work of narratives in social cultural psychology. Theories and other research methods have proposed structures within narratives and stories which may be useful to the design of case-based resources.…

  3. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

    2016-03-24

    Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML.

  4. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

    2016-01-01

    Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML. PMID:27023575

  5. Proposal of Comprehensive Model of Teaching Basic Nursing Skills Under Goal-Based Scenario Theory.

    PubMed

    Sannomiya, Yuri; Muranaka, Yoko; Teraoka, Misako; Suzuki, Sayuri; Saito, Yukie; Yamato, Hiromi; Ishii, Mariko

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to design and develop a comprehensive model of teaching basic nursing skills on GBS theory and Four-Stage Performance Cycle. We designed a basic nursing skill program that consists of three courses: basic, application and multi-tasking. The program will be offered as blended study, utilizing e-learning.

  6. A triangular fuzzy TOPSIS-based approach for the application of water technologies in different emergency water supply scenarios.

    PubMed

    Qu, Jianhua; Meng, Xianlin; Yu, Huan; You, Hong

    2016-09-01

    Because of the increasing frequency and intensity of unexpected natural disasters, providing safe drinking water for the affected population following a disaster has become a global challenge of growing concern. An onsite water supply technology that is portable, mobile, or modular is a more suitable and sustainable solution for the victims than transporting bottled water. In recent years, various water techniques, such as membrane-assisted technologies, have been proposed and successfully implemented in many places. Given the diversity of techniques available, the current challenge is how to scientifically identify the optimum options for different disaster scenarios. Hence, a fuzzy triangular-based multi-criteria, group decision-making tool was developed in this research. The approach was then applied to the selection of the most appropriate water technologies corresponding to the different emergency water supply scenarios. The results show this tool capable of facilitating scientific analysis in the evaluation and selection of emergency water technologies for enduring security drinking water supply in disaster relief.

  7. Uncertainty in local and regional tsunami earthquake source parameters: Implications for scenario based hazard assessment and forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, Christof; Power, William; Burbidge, David; Wang, Xiaoming

    2016-04-01

    Over the last decade tsunami propagation models have been used extensively for both tsunami forecasting, hazard and risk assessment. However, the effect of uncertainty in the earthquake source parameters, such as location and distribution of slip in the earthquake source on the results of the tsunami model has not always been examined in great detail. We have developed a preliminary combined and continuous Hikurangi-Kermadec subduction zone interface model. The model is defined by a spline surface and is based on a previously published spline model for Hikurangi interface and a more traditional unit source model for the Kermadec interface. The model allows to freely position and vary the earthquake epicenter and to consider non-uniform slip. Using this model we have investigated the effects of variability in non-uniform slip and epicenter location on the distribution of offshore maximum wave heights for local New Zealand targets. Which scenario out of an ensemble is responsible for the maximum wave height locally is a spatially highly variable function of earthquake location and/or the distribution of slip. We use the Coefficient of Variation (CoV) to quantify the variability of offshore wave heights as a function of source location and distribution of slip. CoV increases significantly with closer proximity to the shore, in bays and in shallow water. The study has implication for tsunami hazard assessment and forecasting. As an example, our results challenge the concept of hazard assessment using a single worst case scenario in particular for local tsunami.

  8. Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Parham, Paul E.; Hughes, Dyfrig A.

    2015-01-01

    Despite the dependence of mosquito population dynamics on environmental conditions, the associated impact of climate and climate change on present and future malaria remains an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. Here, we develop a novel integration of mosquito, transmission and economic modelling to assess whether the cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against Plasmodium falciparum transmission by Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes depends on climatic conditions in low endemicity scenarios. We find that although temperature and rainfall affect the cost-effectiveness of IRS and/or LLIN scale-up, whether this is sufficient to influence policy depends on local endemicity, existing interventions, host immune response to infection and the emergence rate of insecticide resistance. For the scenarios considered, IRS is found to be more cost-effective than LLINs for the same level of scale-up, and both are more cost-effective at lower mean precipitation and higher variability in precipitation and temperature. We also find that the dependence of peak transmission on mean temperature translates into optimal temperatures for vector-based intervention cost-effectiveness. Further cost-effectiveness analysis that accounts for country-specific epidemiological and environmental heterogeneities is required to assess optimal intervention scale-up for elimination and better understand future transmission trends under climate change. PMID:25688017

  9. Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios.

    PubMed

    Parham, Paul E; Hughes, Dyfrig A

    2015-04-05

    Despite the dependence of mosquito population dynamics on environmental conditions, the associated impact of climate and climate change on present and future malaria remains an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. Here, we develop a novel integration of mosquito, transmission and economic modelling to assess whether the cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against Plasmodium falciparum transmission by Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes depends on climatic conditions in low endemicity scenarios. We find that although temperature and rainfall affect the cost-effectiveness of IRS and/or LLIN scale-up, whether this is sufficient to influence policy depends on local endemicity, existing interventions, host immune response to infection and the emergence rate of insecticide resistance. For the scenarios considered, IRS is found to be more cost-effective than LLINs for the same level of scale-up, and both are more cost-effective at lower mean precipitation and higher variability in precipitation and temperature. We also find that the dependence of peak transmission on mean temperature translates into optimal temperatures for vector-based intervention cost-effectiveness. Further cost-effectiveness analysis that accounts for country-specific epidemiological and environmental heterogeneities is required to assess optimal intervention scale-up for elimination and better understand future transmission trends under climate change. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  10. Scenario-based analysis of binning in MWIR detectors for missile applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kürüm, Ulas

    2016-05-01

    High resolution imaging is an important aspect of imaging in missile applications especially for automated target recognition and tracking. However it is not without its negative aspects. For similar detector size, increase in the resolution is only possible with decrease in pixel pitch which results a smaller detection area which translates to longer detection ranges. Binning is a relatively mature feature for silicon detectors used for obtaining better signal to noise ratio. In this study; a similar concept is proposed for MWIR detectors with emphasis on security related properties such as detection range and performance of an autonomous/semi-autonomous electro-optical system. The analysis and simulations has been performed for a fixed sample with predefined optical and electrical properties for noise and signal models for the clarity of the subject.

  11. A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

    PubMed

    Almahayni, T

    2014-12-01

    The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper

  12. Surface impedance based microwave imaging method for breast cancer screening: contrast-enhanced scenario.

    PubMed

    Güren, Onan; Çayören, Mehmet; Ergene, Lale Tükenmez; Akduman, Ibrahim

    2014-10-07

    A new microwave imaging method that uses microwave contrast agents is presented for the detection and localization of breast tumours. The method is based on the reconstruction of breast surface impedance through a measured scattered field. The surface impedance modelling allows for representing the electrical properties of the breasts in terms of impedance boundary conditions, which enable us to map the inner structure of the breasts into surface impedance functions. Later a simple quantitative method is proposed to screen breasts against malignant tumours where the detection procedure is based on weighted cross correlations among impedance functions. Numerical results demonstrate that the method is capable of detecting small malignancies and provides reasonable localization.

  13. Surface impedance based microwave imaging method for breast cancer screening: contrast-enhanced scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Güren, Onan; Çayören, Mehmet; Tükenmez Ergene, Lale; Akduman, Ibrahim

    2014-10-01

    A new microwave imaging method that uses microwave contrast agents is presented for the detection and localization of breast tumours. The method is based on the reconstruction of breast surface impedance through a measured scattered field. The surface impedance modelling allows for representing the electrical properties of the breasts in terms of impedance boundary conditions, which enable us to map the inner structure of the breasts into surface impedance functions. Later a simple quantitative method is proposed to screen breasts against malignant tumours where the detection procedure is based on weighted cross correlations among impedance functions. Numerical results demonstrate that the method is capable of detecting small malignancies and provides reasonable localization.

  14. Administering the Business School Case Method with a Goal-Based Scenario.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, David A.; Bareiss, Ray

    This paper discusses some of the shortcomings of the business case method of undergraduate and graduate business education and examines the merits of a multimedia software system that is designed to teach topics and skills in financial accounting. It argues that the traditional case-based approach provides only limited assistance to students as…

  15. Designing Collaborative E-Learning Environments Based upon Semantic Wiki: From Design Models to Application Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Yanyan; Dong, Mingkai; Huang, Ronghuai

    2011-01-01

    The knowledge society requires life-long learning and flexible learning environment that enables fast, just-in-time and relevant learning, aiding the development of communities of knowledge, linking learners and practitioners with experts. Based upon semantic wiki, a combination of wiki and Semantic Web technology, this paper designs and develops…

  16. Supply Chain Simulator: A Scenario-Based Educational Tool to Enhance Student Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Siddiqui, Atiq; Khan, Mehmood; Akhtar, Sohail

    2008-01-01

    Simulation-based educational products are excellent set of illustrative tools that proffer features like visualization of the dynamic behavior of a real system, etc. Such products have great efficacy in education and are known to be one of the first-rate student centered learning methodologies. These products allow students to practice skills such…

  17. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

    PubMed Central

    Gupta, Saurabh; Black-Schaffer, W. Stephen; Crawford, James M.; Gross, David; Karcher, Donald S.; Kaufman, Jill; Knapman, Doug; Prystowsky, Michael B.; Wheeler, Thomas M.; Bean, Sarah; Kumar, Paramhans; Sharma, Raghav; Chamoli, Vaibhav; Ghai, Vikrant; Gogia, Vineet; Weintraub, Sally; Cohen, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply) of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories), service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models. PMID:28725751

  18. Deploying wildland fire suppression resources with a scenario-based standard response model

    Treesearch

    Robert G. Haight; Jeremy S. Fried

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire managers deploy suppression resources to bases and dispatch them to fires to maximize the percentage of fires that are successfully contained before unacceptable costs and losses occur. Deployment is made with budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number, location, and intensity of fires, all of which affect initial-attack success. To address...

  19. Designing Collaborative E-Learning Environments Based upon Semantic Wiki: From Design Models to Application Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Yanyan; Dong, Mingkai; Huang, Ronghuai

    2011-01-01

    The knowledge society requires life-long learning and flexible learning environment that enables fast, just-in-time and relevant learning, aiding the development of communities of knowledge, linking learners and practitioners with experts. Based upon semantic wiki, a combination of wiki and Semantic Web technology, this paper designs and develops…

  20. Deploying wildland fire suppression resources with a scenario-based standard response model.

    Treesearch

    Robert G. Haight; Jeremy S. Fried

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire managers deploy suppression resources to bases and dispatch them to fires to maximize the percentage of fires that are successfully contained before unacceptable costs and losses occur. Deployment is made with budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number, location, and intensity of fires, all of which affect initial-attack success. To address...

  1. Inquiry-Based Science Education: A Scenario on Zambia's High School Science Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chabalengula, Vivien M.; Mumba, Frackson

    2012-01-01

    This paper is aimed at elucidating the current state of inquiry-based science education (IBSE) in Zambia's high school science curriculum. Therefore, we investigated Zambian teachers' conceptions of inquiry; determined inquiry levels in the national high school science curriculum materials, which include syllabi, textbooks and practical exams; and…

  2. Supply Chain Simulator: A Scenario-Based Educational Tool to Enhance Student Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Siddiqui, Atiq; Khan, Mehmood; Akhtar, Sohail

    2008-01-01

    Simulation-based educational products are excellent set of illustrative tools that proffer features like visualization of the dynamic behavior of a real system, etc. Such products have great efficacy in education and are known to be one of the first-rate student centered learning methodologies. These products allow students to practice skills such…

  3. A study of the competency of third year medical students to interpret biochemically based clinical scenarios using knowledge and skills gained in year 1 and 2.

    PubMed

    Gowda, Veena Bhaskar S; Nagaiah, Bhaskar Hebbani; Sengodan, Bharathi

    2016-01-01

    Medical students build clinical knowledge on the grounds of previously obtained basic knowledge. The study aimed to evaluate the competency of third year medical students to interpret biochemically based clinical scenarios using knowledge and skills gained during year 1 and 2 of undergraduate medical training. Study was conducted on year 3 MBBS students at AIMST University, Malaysia. Clinical scenarios (25) were constructed and administered to student volunteers, making sure at least one question from each system of year 2 was represented. Feedback was obtained on a five-point Likert scale regarding perception of learning biochemistry in MBBS year 1 versus 2. Mean score of test was 18 (72.11%). Performance was comparatively better in questions related to topics learnt in year 1 and reinforced in year 2 compared to those learnt for first time in year 2. In the feedback obtained, 31% strongly agreed and 56% agreed understanding the subject was helped more by learning biochemistry in year 2 than in year 1. Likewise, 36% strongly agreed and 56% agreed appreciating the importance of biochemistry in patient diagnosis was helped more by learning biochemistry in year 2 than year 1. Thirty one percent strongly agreed and 54% agreed that year 1 biochemistry would have been more relevant if case discussions were done simultaneously. Students retain basic science subjects better and appreciate the importance of basic sciences in patient diagnosis if they are reinforced in the context of clinical situations. © 2016 The International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology.

  4. Fighting Tomorrows Fire Today: Leveraging Intelligence for Scenario-Based Exercise Design

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-03-01

    2005, the focus shifted again to an all-hazards approach.2 Regardless of the nature of the emergency, collaboration among competing agencies is...psychologists from the Department of Intercultural Business Communication, Friedrich-Schiller-University in Jena, Germany, explain the psychological...61 Kim S. Cameron and Robert E. Quinn, Diagnosing and Changing Organizational Culture : Based on the Competing Values Framework, rev. ed (San

  5. Vision-based responders localization techniques in urban search and rescue scenarios.

    PubMed

    Zhuorui Yang; Ganz, Aura

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, we introduce a vision-based localization algorithm that can accurately track responders during rescue operations in urban areas that are Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-denied. The proposed algorithm works successfully with the rich visual features of an urban environment and obtains an average localization accuracy of 2.5 ft. In addition, we also provide a 3D representation of the disaster field which reflects the current conditions of the site.

  6. Validation of a scenario-based assessment of critical thinking using an externally validated tool.

    PubMed

    Buur, Jennifer L; Schmidt, Peggy; Smylie, Dean; Irizarry, Kris; Crocker, Carlos; Tyler, John; Barr, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    With medical education transitioning from knowledge-based curricula to competency-based curricula, critical thinking skills have emerged as a major competency. While there are validated external instruments for assessing critical thinking, many educators have created their own custom assessments of critical thinking. However, the face validity of these assessments has not been challenged. The purpose of this study was to compare results from a custom assessment of critical thinking with the results from a validated external instrument of critical thinking. Students from the College of Veterinary Medicine at Western University of Health Sciences were administered a custom assessment of critical thinking (ACT) examination and the externally validated instrument, California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST), in the spring of 2011. Total scores and sub-scores from each exam were analyzed for significant correlations using Pearson correlation coefficients. Significant correlations between ACT Blooms 2 and deductive reasoning and total ACT score and deductive reasoning were demonstrated with correlation coefficients of 0.24 and 0.22, respectively. No other statistically significant correlations were found. The lack of significant correlation between the two examinations illustrates the need in medical education to externally validate internal custom assessments. Ultimately, the development and validation of custom assessments of non-knowledge-based competencies will produce higher quality medical professionals.

  7. Making electronic prescribing alerts more effective: scenario-based experimental study in junior doctors.

    PubMed

    Scott, Gregory P T; Shah, Priya; Wyatt, Jeremy C; Makubate, Boikanyo; Cross, Frank W

    2011-01-01

    Expert authorities recommend clinical decision support systems to reduce prescribing error rates, yet large numbers of insignificant on-screen alerts presented in modal dialog boxes persistently interrupt clinicians, limiting the effectiveness of these systems. This study compared the impact of modal and non-modal electronic (e-) prescribing alerts on prescribing error rates, to help inform the design of clinical decision support systems. A randomized study of 24 junior doctors each performing 30 simulated prescribing tasks in random order with a prototype e-prescribing system. Using a within-participant design, doctors were randomized to be shown one of three types of e-prescribing alert (modal, non-modal, no alert) during each prescribing task. The main outcome measure was prescribing error rate. Structured interviews were performed to elicit participants' preferences for the prescribing alerts and their views on clinical decision support systems. Participants exposed to modal alerts were 11.6 times less likely to make a prescribing error than those not shown an alert (OR 11.56, 95% CI 6.00 to 22.26). Those shown a non-modal alert were 3.2 times less likely to make a prescribing error (OR 3.18, 95% CI 1.91 to 5.30) than those not shown an alert. The error rate with non-modal alerts was 3.6 times higher than with modal alerts (95% CI 1.88 to 7.04). Both kinds of e-prescribing alerts significantly reduced prescribing error rates, but modal alerts were over three times more effective than non-modal alerts. This study provides new evidence about the relative effects of modal and non-modal alerts on prescribing outcomes.

  8. Making electronic prescribing alerts more effective: scenario-based experimental study in junior doctors

    PubMed Central

    Shah, Priya; Wyatt, Jeremy C; Makubate, Boikanyo; Cross, Frank W

    2011-01-01

    Objective Expert authorities recommend clinical decision support systems to reduce prescribing error rates, yet large numbers of insignificant on-screen alerts presented in modal dialog boxes persistently interrupt clinicians, limiting the effectiveness of these systems. This study compared the impact of modal and non-modal electronic (e-) prescribing alerts on prescribing error rates, to help inform the design of clinical decision support systems. Design A randomized study of 24 junior doctors each performing 30 simulated prescribing tasks in random order with a prototype e-prescribing system. Using a within-participant design, doctors were randomized to be shown one of three types of e-prescribing alert (modal, non-modal, no alert) during each prescribing task. Measurements The main outcome measure was prescribing error rate. Structured interviews were performed to elicit participants' preferences for the prescribing alerts and their views on clinical decision support systems. Results Participants exposed to modal alerts were 11.6 times less likely to make a prescribing error than those not shown an alert (OR 11.56, 95% CI 6.00 to 22.26). Those shown a non-modal alert were 3.2 times less likely to make a prescribing error (OR 3.18, 95% CI 1.91 to 5.30) than those not shown an alert. The error rate with non-modal alerts was 3.6 times higher than with modal alerts (95% CI 1.88 to 7.04). Conclusions Both kinds of e-prescribing alerts significantly reduced prescribing error rates, but modal alerts were over three times more effective than non-modal alerts. This study provides new evidence about the relative effects of modal and non-modal alerts on prescribing outcomes. PMID:21836158

  9. A SCENARIO FOR THE FINE STRUCTURES OF SOLAR TYPE IIIb RADIO BURSTS BASED ON ELECTRON CYCLOTRON MASER EMISSION

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, C. B.

    2015-06-10

    A scenario based on electron cyclotron maser (ECM) emission is proposed for the fine structures of solar radio emission. It is suggested that under certain conditions modulation of the ratio between the plasma frequency and electron gyro frequency by ultra-low-frequency waves, which is a key parameter for excitation of ECM instability, may lead to the intermittent emission of radio waves. As an example, the explanation for the observed fine-structure components in the solar Type IIIb bursts is discussed in detail. Three primary issues of Type IIIb bursts are addressed: (1) the physical mechanism that results in intermittent emission elements that form a chain in the dynamic spectrum of Type IIIb bursts, (2) the cause of split pairs (or double stria) and triple stria, and (3) why only IIIb–III bursts are observed in the events of fundamental harmonic pair emission whereas IIIb–IIIb or III–IIIb bursts are very rarely observed.

  10. South African maize production scenarios for 2055 using a combined empirical and process-based model approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Estes, L.; Bradley, B.; Oppenheimer, M.; Wilcove, D.; Beukes, H.; Schulze, R. E.; Tadross, M.

    2011-12-01

    In South Africa, a semi-arid country with a diverse agricultural sector, climate change is projected to negatively impact staple crop production. Our study examines future impacts to maize, South Africa's most widely grown staple crop. Working at finer spatial resolution than previous studies, we combine the process-based DSSAT4.5 and the empirical MAXENT models to study future maize suitability. Climate scenarios were based on 9 GCMs run under SRES A2 and B1 emissions scenarios down-scaled (using self-organizing maps) to 5838 locations. Soil properties were derived from textural and compositional data linked to 26422 landforms. DSSAT was run with typical dryland planting parameters and mean projected CO2 values. MAXENT was trained using aircraft-observed distributions and monthly climatologies data derived from downscaled daily records, with future rainfall increased by 10% to simulate CO2 related water-use efficiency gains. We assessed model accuracy based on correlations between model output and a satellite-derived yield proxy (integrated NDVI), and the overlap of modeled and observed maize field distributions. DSSAT yields were linearly correlated to mean integrated NDVI (R2 = 0.38), while MAXENT's relationship was logistic. Binary suitability maps based on thresholding model outputs were slightly more accurate for MAXENT (88%) than for DSSAT (87%) when compared to current maize field distribution. We created 18 suitability maps for each model (9 GCMs X 2 SRES) using projected changes relative to historical suitability thresholds. Future maps largely agreed in eastern South Africa, but disagreed strongly in the semi-arid west. Using a 95% confidence criterion (17 models agree), MAXENT showed a 241305 km2 suitability loss relative to its modeled historical suitability, while DSSAT showed a potential loss of only 112446 km2. Even the smaller potential loss highlighted by DSSAT is uncertain, given that DSSAT's mean (across all 18 climate scenarios) projected yield

  11. A Scenario for the Fine Structures of Solar Type IIIb Radio Bursts Based on Electron Cyclotron Maser Emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, C. B.

    2015-06-01

    A scenario based on electron cyclotron maser (ECM) emission is proposed for the fine structures of solar radio emission. It is suggested that under certain conditions modulation of the ratio between the plasma frequency and electron gyro frequency by ultra-low-frequency waves, which is a key parameter for excitation of ECM instability, may lead to the intermittent emission of radio waves. As an example, the explanation for the observed fine-structure components in the solar Type IIIb bursts is discussed in detail. Three primary issues of Type IIIb bursts are addressed: (1) the physical mechanism that results in intermittent emission elements that form a chain in the dynamic spectrum of Type IIIb bursts, (2) the cause of split pairs (or double stria) and triple stria, and (3) why only IIIb-III bursts are observed in the events of fundamental harmonic pair emission whereas IIIb-IIIb or III-IIIb bursts are very rarely observed.

  12. The Nankai Trough earthquake tsunamis in Korea: Numerical studies of the 1707 Hoei earthquake and physics-based scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S.; Saito, T.; Fukuyama, E.; Kang, T. S.

    2016-12-01

    Historical documents in Korea and China report abnormal waves in the sea and rivers close to the date of the 1707 Hoei earthquake, which occurred in the Nankai Trough, off southwestern Japan. This indicates that the tsunami caused by the Hoei earthquake might have reached Korea and China, which suggests a potential hazard in Korea from large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. We conducted tsunami simulations to study the details of tsunamis in Korea caused by large earthquakes. We employed the 1707 Hoei earthquake source model and physics-based scenarios of anticipated earthquake in the Nankai subduction zone. We also considered the effect of horizontal displacement on tsunami generation. Our simulation results from the Hoei earthquake model and the anticipated earthquake models showed that the maximum tsunami height along the Korean coast was less than 0.5 m. Even though the tsunami is not life-threatening, the effect of larger earthquakes should be still considered.

  13. Modeling post-fire sediment yield based on two burn scenarios at the Sooke Lake Reservoir, BC, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobre, Mariana; Elliot, William J.; Brooks, Erin S.; Smith, Tim

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires can have major adverse effects on municipal water sources. Local governments need methods to evaluate fire risk and to develop mitigation procedures. The Sooke Lake Reservoir is the primary source of water for the city of Victoria, BC and the concern is that sediment delivered from upland burned areas could have a detrimental impact on the reservoir and the water supply. We conducted a sediment delivery modeling pilot study on a portion of the Sooke Lake Reservoir (specifically, the Trestle Creek Management Unit (TCMU)) to evaluate the potential impacts of wildfire on sediment delivery from hillslopes and sub-catchments. We used a process-based hydrologic and soil erosion model called Water Erosion Prediction Project geospatial interface, GeoWEPP, to predict the sediment delivery from specific return period design storms for two burn severity scenarios: real (low-intensity burn severity) and worst (high-intensity burn severity) case scenarios. The GeoWEPP model allows users to simulate streamflow and erosion from hillslope polygons within a watershed. The model requires information on the topographic, soil and vegetative characteristics for each hillslope and a weather file. WEPP default values and several assumptions were necessary to apply the model where data were missing. Based on a 10-m DEM we delineated 16 watersheds within the TCMU area. A long term 100-year daily climate file was generated for this analysis using the CLIGEN model based on the historical observations recorded at Concrete, WA in United States, and adjusted for observed monthly precipitation observed in the Sooke Basin. We ran 100-year simulations and calculated yearly and event-based return periods (for 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, and 50 years) for each of the 16 watersheds. Overall, WEPP simulations indicate that the storms that are most likely to produce the greatest runoff and sediment load in these coastal, maritime climates with relatively low rainfall intensities are likely to occur in

  14. The Use of Open-Ended Problem-Based Learning Scenarios in an Interdisciplinary Biotechnology Class: Evaluation of a Problem-Based Learning Course Across Three Years†

    PubMed Central

    Steck, Todd R.; DiBiase, Warren; Wang, Chuang; Boukhtiarov, Anatoli

    2012-01-01

    Use of open-ended Problem-Based Learning (PBL) in biology classrooms has been limited by the difficulty in designing problem scenarios such that the content learned in a course can be predicted and controlled, the lack of familiarity of this method of instruction by faculty, and the difficulty in assessment. Here we present the results of a study in which we developed a team-based interdisciplinary course that combined the fields of biology and civil engineering across three years. We used PBL scenarios as the only learning tool, wrote the problem scenarios, and developed the means to assess these courses and the results of that assessment. Our data indicates that PBL changed students’ perception of their learning in content knowledge and promoted a change in students’ learning styles. Although no statistically significant improvement in problem-solving skills and critical thinking skills was observed, students reported substantial changes in their problem-based learning strategies and critical thinking skills. PMID:23653774

  15. Evaluating interactive computer-based scenarios designed for learning medical technology.

    PubMed

    Persson, Johanna; Dalholm, Elisabeth Hornyánszky; Wallergård, Mattias; Johansson, Gerd

    2014-11-01

    The use of medical equipment is growing in healthcare, resulting in an increased need for resources to educate users in how to manage the various devices. Learning the practical operation of a device is one thing, but learning how to work with the device in the actual clinical context is more challenging. This paper presents a computer-based simulation prototype for learning medical technology in the context of critical care. Properties from simulation and computer games have been adopted to create a visualization-based, interactive and contextually bound tool for learning. A participatory design process, including three researchers and three practitioners from a clinic for infectious diseases, was adopted to adjust the form and content of the prototype to the needs of the clinical practice and to create a situated learning experience. An evaluation with 18 practitioners showed that practitioners were positive to this type of tool for learning and that it served as a good platform for eliciting and sharing knowledge. Our conclusion is that this type of tools can be a complement to traditional learning resources to situate the learning in a context without requiring advanced technology or being resource-demanding.

  16. Prescriptive vs. performance based cook-off fire testing.

    SciTech Connect

    Nakos, James Thomas; Tieszen, Sheldon Robert; Erikson, William Wilding; Gill, Walter; Blanchat, Thomas K.

    2010-07-01

    In the fire safety community, the trend is toward implementing performance-based standards in place of existing prescriptive ones. Prescriptive standards can be difficult to adapt to changing design methods, materials, and application situations of systems that ultimately must perform well in unwanted fire situations. In general, this trend has produced positive results and is embraced by the fire protection community. The question arises as to whether this approach could be used to advantage in cook-off testing. Prescribed fuel fire cook-off tests have been instigated because of historical incidents that led to extensive damage to structures and loss of life. They are designed to evaluate the propensity for a violent response. The prescribed protocol has several advantages: it can be defined in terms of controllable parameters (wind speed, fuel type, pool size, etc.); and it may be conservative for a particular scenario. However, fires are inherently variable and prescribed tests are not necessarily representative of a particular accident scenario. Moreover, prescribed protocols are not necessarily adaptable and may not be conservative. We also consider performance-based testing. This requires more knowledge and thought regarding not only the fire environment, but the behavior of the munitions themselves. Sandia uses a performance based approach in assuring the safe behavior of systems of interest that contain energetic materials. Sandia also conducts prescriptive fire testing for the IAEA, NRC and the DOT. Here we comment on the strengths and weakness of both approaches and suggest a path forward should it be desirable to pursue a performance based cook-off standard.

  17. Pesticide exposure assessment for surface waters in the EU. Part 2: Determination of statistically based run-off and drainage scenarios for Germany.

    PubMed

    Bach, Martin; Diesner, Mirjam; Großmann, Dietlinde; Guerniche, Djamal; Hommen, Udo; Klein, Michael; Kubiak, Roland; Müller, Alexandra; Preuss, Thomas G; Priegnitz, Jan; Reichenberger, Stefan; Thomas, Kai; Trapp, Matthias

    2017-05-01

    In order to assess surface water exposure to active substances of plant protection products (PPPs) in the European Union (EU), the FOCUS (FOrum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their USe) surface water workgroup introduced four run-off and six drainage scenarios for Step 3 of the tiered FOCUSsw approach. These scenarios may not necessarily represent realistic worst-case situations for the different Member States of the EU. Hence, the suitability of the scenarios for risk assessment in the national authorisation procedures is not known. Using Germany as an example, the paper illustrates how national soil-climate scenarios can be developed to model entries of active substances into surface waters from run-off and erosion (using the model PRZM) and from drainage (using the model MACRO). In the authorisation procedure for PPPs on Member State level, such soil-climate scenarios can be used to determine exposure endpoints with a defined overall percentile. The approach allows the development of national specific soil-climate scenarios and to calculate percentile-based exposure endpoints. The scenarios have been integrated into a software tool analogous to FOCUS-SWASH which can be used in the future to assess surface water exposure in authorisation procedures of PPPs in Germany. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

  18. Projections of high resolution climate changes for South Korea using multiple-regional climate models based on four RCP scenarios. Part 1: surface air temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suh, Myoung-Seok; Oh, Seok-Geun; Lee, Young-Suk; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Hong, Song-You; Min, Seung-Ki; Park, Seong-Chan; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2016-05-01

    We projected surface air temperature changes over South Korea during the mid (2026-2050) and late (2076-2100) 21st century against the current climate (1981-2005) using the simulation results from five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, coupled with the Atmosphere- Ocean (HadGEM2-AO), and two ensemble methods (equal weighted averaging, weighted averaging based on Taylor's skill score) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In general, the five RCM ensembles captured the spatial and seasonal variations, and probability distribution of temperature over South Korea reasonably compared to observation. They particularly showed a good performance in simulating annual temperature range compared to HadGEM2-AO. In future simulation, the temperature over South Korea will increase significantly for all scenarios and seasons. Stronger warming trends are projected in the late 21st century than in the mid-21st century, in particular under RCP8.5. The five RCM ensembles projected that temperature changes for the mid/late 21st century relative to the current climate are +1.54°C/+1.92°C for RCP2.6, +1.68°C/+2.91°C for RCP4.5, +1.17°C/+3.11°C for RCP6.0, and +1.75°C/+4.73°C for RCP8.5. Compared to the temperature projection of HadGEM2-AO, the five RCM ensembles projected smaller increases in temperature for all RCP scenarios and seasons. The inter-RCM spread is proportional to the simulation period (i.e., larger in the late-21st than mid-21st century) and significantly greater (about four times) in winter than summer for all RCP scenarios. Therefore, the modeled predictions of temperature increases during the late 21st century, particularly for winter temperatures, should be used with caution.

  19. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    PubMed

    Cummings, Christopher L; Kuzma, Jennifer

    2017-01-01

    Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  20. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance. PMID:28052080

  1. Moral foundations vignettes: a standardized stimulus database of scenarios based on moral foundations theory.

    PubMed

    Clifford, Scott; Iyengar, Vijeth; Cabeza, Roberto; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter

    2015-12-01

    Research on the emotional, cognitive, and social determinants of moral judgment has surged in recent years. The development of moral foundations theory (MFT) has played an important role, demonstrating the breadth of morality. Moral psychology has responded by investigating how different domains of moral judgment are shaped by a variety of psychological factors. Yet, the discipline lacks a validated set of moral violations that span the moral domain, creating a barrier to investigating influences on judgment and how their neural bases might vary across the moral domain. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by developing and validating a large set of moral foundations vignettes (MFVs). Each vignette depicts a behavior violating a particular moral foundation and not others. The vignettes are controlled on many dimensions including syntactic structure and complexity making them suitable for neuroimaging research. We demonstrate the validity of our vignettes by examining respondents' classifications of moral violations, conducting exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and demonstrating the correspondence between the extracted factors and existing measures of the moral foundations. We expect that the MFVs will be beneficial for a wide variety of behavioral and neuroimaging investigations of moral cognition.

  2. Moral foundations vignettes: a standardized stimulus database of scenarios based on moral foundations theory

    PubMed Central

    Iyengar, Vijeth; Cabeza, Roberto; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter

    2016-01-01

    Research on the emotional, cognitive, and social determinants of moral judgment has surged in recent years. The development of moral foundations theory (MFT) has played an important role, demonstrating the breadth of morality. Moral psychology has responded by investigating how different domains of moral judgment are shaped by a variety of psychological factors. Yet, the discipline lacks a validated set of moral violations that span the moral domain, creating a barrier to investigating influences on judgment and how their neural bases might vary across the moral domain. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by developing and validating a large set of moral foundations vignettes (MFVs). Each vignette depicts a behavior violating a particular moral foundation and not others. The vignettes are controlled on many dimensions including syntactic structure and complexity making them suitable for neuroimaging research. We demonstrate the validity of our vignettes by examining respondents’ classifications of moral violations, conducting exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and demonstrating the correspondence between the extracted factors and existing measures of the moral foundations. We expect that the MFVs will be beneficial for a wide variety of behavioral and neuroimaging investigations of moral cognition. PMID:25582811

  3. Industrialization scenario for X-ray telescopes production based on glass slumping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Proserpio, Laura; Döhring, Thorsten; Breunig, Elias; Friedrich, Peter; Winter, Anita

    2014-07-01

    Large X-ray segmented telescopes will be a key element for future missions aiming to solve still hidden mysteries of the hot and energetic Universe, such as the role of black holes in shaping their surroundings or how and why ordinary matter assembles into galaxies and clusters as it does. The major challenge of these systems is to guarantee a large effective area in combination with large field of view and good angular resolution, while maintaining the mass of the entire system within the geometrical and mass budget posed by space launchers. The slumping technology presents all the technical potentiality to be implemented for the realization of such demanding systems: it is based on the use of thin glass foils, shaped at high temperature in an oven over a suitable mould. Thousands of slumped segments are then aligned and assembled together into the optical payload. An exercise on the mass production approach has been conducted at Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics (MPE) to show that the slumping technology can be a valuable approach for the realization of future X-ray telescopes also from a point of view of industrialization. For the analysis, a possible design for the ATHENA mission telescope was taken as reference.

  4. Students' perception of a problem-based learning scenario in dental nurse education.

    PubMed

    Anderson, V; Reid, K

    2012-11-01

    In July 2008, The General Dental Council implemented mandatory registration for Dental Nurses in the United Kingdom, recognising them as legally responsible for patient care. As dentistry comes to terms with the impact registration has on dental nurses, sustained advances in the teaching of students in other healthcare disciplines demonstrate the way in which the role of pedagogy in dental nurse education has been underdeveloped. In an attempt to see dental nursing stand in line with other progressive healthcare professionals, the authors have implemented Problem-Based Learning (PBL) into a dental nurse program in NHS Education for Scotland, Glasgow. The aim of the research is to assess the perceptions of dental nurse students with regard to participation in active learning. The study is facilitated by a short PBL package which offers introductory exposure to this method of learning. A qualitative approach has been taken to gather experiential data using a questionnaire. Thematic analysis took place to reveal emergent themes. Analysis reveals that the participants found PBL to be an enjoyable experience that could be valuable in the acquisition of deep knowledge and improved patient care. The participants raised concerns with regard to confidence in their own knowledge acquisition in PBL sessions and highlighted a need for improved feedback. While the participants enjoyed the self directed nature of PBL, it is important to note that the need for facilitator guidance was considered imperative, especially where the students had little or no experience of PBL, as in this study. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  5. Variability in research ethics review of cluster randomized trials: a scenario-based survey in three countries

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) present unique ethical challenges. In the absence of a uniform standard for their ethical design and conduct, problems such as variability in procedures and requirements by different research ethics committees will persist. We aimed to assess the need for ethics guidelines for CRTs among research ethics chairs internationally, investigate variability in procedures for research ethics review of CRTs within and among countries, and elicit research ethics chairs’ perspectives on specific ethical issues in CRTs, including the identification of research subjects. The proper identification of research subjects is a necessary requirement in the research ethics review process, to help ensure, on the one hand, that subjects are protected from harm and exploitation, and on the other, that reviews of CRTs are completed efficiently. Methods A web-based survey with closed- and open-ended questions was administered to research ethics chairs in Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The survey presented three scenarios of CRTs involving cluster-level, professional-level, and individual-level interventions. For each scenario, a series of questions was posed with respect to the type of review required (full, expedited, or no review) and the identification of research subjects at cluster and individual levels. Results A total of 189 (35%) of 542 chairs responded. Overall, 144 (84%, 95% CI 79 to 90%) agreed or strongly agreed that there is a need for ethics guidelines for CRTs and 158 (92%, 95% CI 88 to 96%) agreed or strongly agreed that research ethics committees could be better informed about distinct ethical issues surrounding CRTs. There was considerable variability among research ethics chairs with respect to the type of review required, as well as the identification of research subjects. The cluster-cluster and professional-cluster scenarios produced the most disagreement. Conclusions Research ethics committees

  6. Assessment of vulnerability to future marine processes of urbanized coastal environments by a GIS-based approach: expected scenario in the metropolitan area of Bari (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mancini, F.; Ceppi, C.; Christopulos, V.

    2013-12-01

    Literature concerning the risk assessment procedures after extreme meteorological events is generally focused on the establishing of relationship between actual severe weather conditions and impact detected over the involved zones. Such an events are classified on the basis of measurements and observation able to assess the magnitude of phenomena or on the basis of related effects on the affected area, the latter being deeply connected with the overall physical vulnerability. However such assessment almost never do consider scenario about expected extreme event and possible pattern of urbanization at the time of impact and nor the spatial and temporal uncertainty of phenomena are taken into account. The drawn of future scenario about coastal vulnerability to marine processes is therefore difficult. This work focuses the study case of the Metropoli Terra di Bari (metropolitan area of Bari, Apulia, Italy) where a coastal vulnerability analysis due to climate changes expected on the basis of expert opinions coming from the scientific community was carried out. Several possible impacts on the coastal environments were considered, in particular sea level rise inundation, flooding due to storm surge and coastal erosion. For such a purpose the methodology base on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) produced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was adopted after a regionalization procedure as carried out by Verburgh and others (2006) at the European scale. The open source software SLEUTH, base on the cellular automate principle, was used and the reliability of obtained scenario verified through the Monte Carlo method. Once these scenario were produced, a GIS-based multicriteria methodology was implemented to evaluate the vulnerability of the urbanized coastal area of interest. Several vulnerability maps related are therefore available for different scenario able to consider the degree of hazards and potential development of the typology and extent

  7. Improving the performance of a filling line based on simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jasiulewicz-Kaczmarek, M.; Bartkowiak, T.

    2016-08-01

    The paper describes the method of improving performance of a filling line based on simulation. This study concerns a production line that is located in a manufacturing centre of a FMCG company. A discrete event simulation model was built using data provided by maintenance data acquisition system. Two types of failures were identified in the system and were approximated using continuous statistical distributions. The model was validated taking into consideration line performance measures. A brief Pareto analysis of line failures was conducted to identify potential areas of improvement. Two improvements scenarios were proposed and tested via simulation. The outcome of the simulations were the bases of financial analysis. NPV and ROI values were calculated taking into account depreciation, profits, losses, current CIT rate and inflation. A validated simulation model can be a useful tool in maintenance decision-making process.

  8. Off-Nominal Performance of the International Space Station Solar Array Wings Under Orbital Eclipse Lighting Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerslake, Thomas W.; Scheiman, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper documents testing and analyses to quantify International Space Station (ISS) Solar Array Wing (SAW) string electrical performance under highly off-nominal, low-temperature-low-intensity (LILT) operating conditions with nonsolar light sources. This work is relevant for assessing feasibility and risks associated with a Sequential Shunt Unit (SSU) remove and replace (R&R) Extravehicular Activity (EVA). During eclipse, SAW strings can be energized by moonlight, EVA suit helmet lights or video camera lights. To quantify SAW performance under these off-nominal conditions, solar cell performance testing was performed using full moon, solar simulator and Video Camera Luminaire (VCL) light sources. Test conditions included 25 to 110 C temperatures and 1- to 0.0001-Sun illumination intensities. Electrical performance data and calculated eclipse lighting intensities were combined to predict SAW current-voltage output for comparison with electrical hazard thresholds. Worst case predictions show there is no connector pin molten metal hazard but crew shock hazard limits are exceeded due to VCL illumination. Assessment uncertainties and limitations are discussed along with operational solutions to mitigate SAW electrical hazards from VCL illumination. Results from a preliminary assessment of SAW arcing are also discussed. The authors recommend further analyses once SSU, R&R, and EVA procedures are better defined.

  9. Material Performance of Fully-Ceramic Micro-Encapsulated Fuel under Selected LWR Design Basis Scenarios: Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    B. Boer; R. S. Sen; M. A. Pope; A. M. Ougouag

    2011-09-01

    The extension to LWRs of the use of Deep-Burn coated particle fuel envisaged for HTRs has been investigated. TRISO coated fuel particles are used in Fully-Ceramic Microencapsulated (FCM) fuel within a SiC matrix rather than the graphite of HTRs. TRISO particles are well characterized for uranium-fueled HTRs. However, operating conditions of LWRs are different from those of HTRs (temperature, neutron energy spectrum, fast fluence levels, power density). Furthermore, the time scales of transient core behavior during accidents are usually much shorter and thus more severe in LWRs. The PASTA code was updated for analysis of stresses in coated particle FCM fuel. The code extensions enable the automatic use of neutronic data (burnup, fast fluence as a function of irradiation time) obtained using the DRAGON neutronics code. An input option for automatic evaluation of temperature rise during anticipated transients was also added. A new thermal model for FCM was incorporated into the code; so-were updated correlations (for pyrocarbon coating layers) suitable to estimating dimensional changes at the high fluence levels attained in LWR DB fuel. Analyses of the FCM fuel using the updated PASTA code under nominal and accident conditions show: (1) Stress levels in SiC-coatings are low for low fission gas release (FGR) fractions of several percent, as based on data of fission gas diffusion in UO{sub 2} kernels. However, the high burnup level of LWR-DB fuel implies that the FGR fraction is more likely to be in the range of 50-100%, similar to Inert Matrix Fuels (IMFs). For this range the predicted stresses and failure fractions of the SiC coating are high for the reference particle design (500 {micro}mm kernel diameter, 100 {micro}mm buffer, 35 {micro}mm IPyC, 35 {micro}mm SiC, 40 {micro}mm OPyC). A conservative case, assuming 100% FGR, 900K fuel temperature and 705 MWd/kg (77% FIMA) fuel burnup, results in a 8.0 x 10{sup -2} failure probability. For a 'best-estimate' FGR fraction

  10. Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toroody, Ahmad Bahoo; Abaiee, Mohammad Mahdi; Gholamnia, Reza; Ketabdari, Mohammad Javad

    2016-09-01

    Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

  11. Quantitative evaluation of lake eutrophication responses under alternative water diversion scenarios: a water quality modeling based statistical analysis approach.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yong; Wang, Yilin; Sheng, Hu; Dong, Feifei; Zou, Rui; Zhao, Lei; Guo, Huaicheng; Zhu, Xiang; He, Bin

    2014-01-15

    China is confronting the challenge of accelerated lake eutrophication, where Lake Dianchi is considered as the most serious one. Eutrophication control for Lake Dianchi began in the mid-1980s. However, decision makers have been puzzled by the lack of visible water quality response to past efforts given the tremendous investment. Therefore, decision makers desperately need a scientifically sound way to quantitatively evaluate the response of lake water quality to proposed management measures and engineering works. We used a water quality modeling based scenario analysis approach to quantitatively evaluate the eutrophication responses of Lake Dianchi to an under-construction water diversion project. The primary analytic framework was built on a three-dimensional hydrodynamic, nutrient fate and transport, as well as algae dynamics model, which has previously been calibrated and validated using historical data. We designed 16 scenarios to analyze the water quality effects of three driving forces, including watershed nutrient loading, variations in diverted inflow water, and lake water level. A two-step statistical analysis consisting of an orthogonal test analysis and linear regression was then conducted to distinguish the contributions of various driving forces to lake water quality. The analysis results show that (a) the different ways of managing the diversion projects would result in different water quality response in Lake Dianchi, though the differences do not appear to be significant; (b) the maximum reduction in annual average and peak Chl-a concentration from the various ways of diversion project operation are respectively 11% and 5%; (c) a combined 66% watershed load reduction and water diversion can eliminate the lake hypoxia volume percentage from the existing 6.82% to 3.00%; and (d) the water diversion will decrease the occurrence of algal blooms, and the effect of algae reduction can be enhanced if diverted water are seasonally allocated such that wet

  12. Probabilistic performance-based design for high performance control systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Micheli, Laura; Cao, Liang; Gong, Yongqiang; Cancelli, Alessandro; Laflamme, Simon; Alipour, Alice

    2017-04-01

    High performance control systems (HPCS) are advanced damping systems capable of high damping performance over a wide frequency bandwidth, ideal for mitigation of multi-hazards. They include active, semi-active, and hybrid damping systems. However, HPCS are more expensive than typical passive mitigation systems, rely on power and hardware (e.g., sensors, actuators) to operate, and require maintenance. In this paper, a life cycle cost analysis (LCA) approach is proposed to estimate the economic benefit these systems over the entire life of the structure. The novelty resides in the life cycle cost analysis in the performance based design (PBD) tailored to multi-level wind hazards. This yields a probabilistic performance-based design approach for HPCS. Numerical simulations are conducted on a building located in Boston, MA. LCA are conducted for passive control systems and HPCS, and the concept of controller robustness is demonstrated. Results highlight the promise of the proposed performance-based design procedure.

  13. Risk-based decision making for staggered bioterrorist attacks : resource allocation and risk reduction in "reload" scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Lemaster, Michelle Nicole; Gay, David M.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Boggs, Paul T.; Ray, Jaideep

    2009-10-01

    Staggered bioterrorist attacks with aerosolized pathogens on population centers present a formidable challenge to resource allocation and response planning. The response and planning will commence immediately after the detection of the first attack and with no or little information of the second attack. In this report, we outline a method by which resource allocation may be performed. It involves probabilistic reconstruction of the bioterrorist attack from partial observations of the outbreak, followed by an optimization-under-uncertainty approach to perform resource allocations. We consider both single-site and time-staggered multi-site attacks (i.e., a reload scenario) under conditions when resources (personnel and equipment which are difficult to gather and transport) are insufficient. Both communicable (plague) and non-communicable diseases (anthrax) are addressed, and we also consider cases when the data, the time-series of people reporting with symptoms, are confounded with a reporting delay. We demonstrate how our approach develops allocations profiles that have the potential to reduce the probability of an extremely adverse outcome in exchange for a more certain, but less adverse outcome. We explore the effect of placing limits on daily allocations. Further, since our method is data-driven, the resource allocation progressively improves as more data becomes available.

  14. Assessment of H.264 video compression on automated face recognition performance in surveillance and mobile video scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klare, Brendan; Burge, Mark

    2010-04-01

    We assess the impact of the H.264 video codec on the match performance of automated face recognition in surveillance and mobile video applications. A set of two hundred access control (90 pixel inter-pupilary distance) and distance surveillance (45 pixel inter-pupilary distance) videos taken under non-ideal imaging and facial recognition (e.g., pose, illumination, and expression) conditions were matched using two commercial face recognition engines in the studies. The first study evaluated automated face recognition performance on access control and distance surveillance videos at CIF and VGA resolutions using the H.264 baseline profile at nine bitrates rates ranging from 8kbs to 2048kbs. In our experiments, video signals were able to be compressed up to 128kbs before a significant drop face recognition performance occurred. The second study evaluated automated face recognition on mobile devices at QCIF, iPhone, and Android resolutions for each of the H.264 PDA profiles. Rank one match performance, cumulative match scores, and failure to enroll rates are reported.

  15. A Semantic Web-Based Authoring Tool to Facilitate the Planning of Collaborative Learning Scenarios Compliant with Learning Theories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Isotani, Seiji; Mizoguchi, Riichiro; Isotani, Sadao; Capeli, Olimpio M.; Isotani, Naoko; de Albuquerque, Antonio R. P. L.; Bittencourt, Ig. I.; Jaques, Patricia

    2013-01-01

    When the goal of group activities is to support long-term learning, the task of designing well-thought-out collaborative learning (CL) scenarios is an important key to success. To help students adequately acquire and develop their knowledge and skills, a teacher can plan a scenario that increases the probability for learning to occur. Such a…

  16. A Semantic Web-Based Authoring Tool to Facilitate the Planning of Collaborative Learning Scenarios Compliant with Learning Theories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Isotani, Seiji; Mizoguchi, Riichiro; Isotani, Sadao; Capeli, Olimpio M.; Isotani, Naoko; de Albuquerque, Antonio R. P. L.; Bittencourt, Ig. I.; Jaques, Patricia

    2013-01-01

    When the goal of group activities is to support long-term learning, the task of designing well-thought-out collaborative learning (CL) scenarios is an important key to success. To help students adequately acquire and develop their knowledge and skills, a teacher can plan a scenario that increases the probability for learning to occur. Such a…

  17. Hydrological Assessment of Model Performance and Scenario Analyses of Land Use Change and Climate Change in lowlands of Veneto Region (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pijl, Anton; Brauer, Claudia; Sofia, Giulia; Teuling, Ryan; Tarolli, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    Growing water-related challenges in lowland areas of the world call for good assessment of our past and present actions, in order to guide our future decisions. The novel Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS; Brauer et al., 2014) was developed to simulate hydrological processes and has showed promising performance in recent studies in the Netherlands. Here the model was applied to a coastal basin of 2800 ha in the Veneto Region (northern Italy) to test model performance and evaluate scenario analyses of land use change and climate change. Located partially below sea-level, the reclaimed area is facing persistent land transformation and climate change trends, which alter not only the processes in the catchment but also the demands from it (Tarolli and Sofia, 2016). Firstly results of the calibration (NSE = 0.77; year simulation, daily resolution) and validation (NSE = 0.53; idem) showed that the model is able to reproduce the dominant hydrological processes of this lowland area (e.g. discharge and groundwater fluxes). Land use scenarios between 1951 and 2060 were constructed using demographic models, supported by orthographic interpretation techniques. Climate scenarios were constructed by historical records and future projections by COSMO-CLM regional climate model (Rockel et al., 2008) under the RCP4.5 pathway. WALRUS simulations showed that the land use changes result in a wetter catchment with more discharge, and the climatic changes cause more extremes with longer droughts and stronger rain events. These changes combined show drier summers (-33{%} rainfall, +27{%} soil moisture deficit) and wetter (+13{%} rainfall) and intenser (+30{%} rain intensity) autumn and winters in the future. The simulated discharge regime -particularly peak flow- follows these polarising trends, in good agreement with similar studies in the geographical zone (e.g. Vezzoli et al., 2015). This will increase the pressure on the fully-artificial drainage and agricultural systems

  18. Projected climate change impacts on North Sea and Baltic Sea: CMIP3 and CMIP5 model based scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pushpadas, D.; Schrum, C.; Daewel, U.

    2015-08-01

    Climate change impacts on the marine biogeochemistry and lower trophic level dynamics in the North Sea and Baltic Sea have been assessed using regional downscaling in a number of recent studies. However, most of these where only forced by physical conditions from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and regional downscaling considering the climate change impact on oceanic nutrient conditions from Global Earth System Models (ESMs) are rare and so far solely based on CMIP3-generation climate models. The few studies published show a large range in projected future primary production and hydrodynamic condition. With the addition of CMIP5 models and scenarios, the demand to explore the uncertainty in regional climate change projections increased. Moreover, the question arises how projections based on CMIP5-generation models compare to earlier projections and multi-model ensembles comprising both AR4 and AR5 generation forcing models. Here, we investigated the potential future climate change impacts to the North Sea and the Baltic Sea ecosystem using a coherent regional downscaling strategy based on the regional coupled bio-physical model ECOSMO. ECOSMO was forced by output from different ESMs from both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Multi-model ensembles using CMIP3/A1B and CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios are examined, where the selected CMIP5 models are the successors of the chosen CMIP3 models. Comparing projected changes with the present day reference condition, all these simulations predicted an increase in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in both North Sea and Baltic Sea, reduction in sea ice in the Baltic, decrease in primary production in the North Sea and an increase in primary production in the Baltic Sea. Despite these largely consistent results on the direction of the projected changes, our results revealed a broad range in the amplitude of projected climate change impacts. Our study strengthens the claim that the choice of the ESM is a major factor for regional climate projections

  19. Relation of student characteristics to learning of basic biochemistry concepts from a multimedia goal-based scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoenfeld-Tacher, Regina M.

    2000-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship of several cognitive and demographic variables to learning outcomes from a multimedia Goal-Based Scenario lesson on DNA. The demographic variables under investigation were: gender, ethnicity, prior science coursework in college and high school, final score in current chemistry course and prior experience with computers. The cognitive variables under study were logical thinking ability, spatial ability and disembedding ability. The subjects for this study were a total of 525 college students enrolled in introductory chemistry classes for non-majors at one of four participating institutions in the U.S. and Canada. Of these participants, 488 formed the experimental group and 37 formed a control group. All subjects completed content pre- and post-tests, a demographic questionnaire and three cognitive tests: Test of Logical Thinking, Hidden Figures Test and Purdue Visualization of Rotations Test. Students in the experimental group used "Whodunnit?," a multimedia Goal-Based Scenario to teach basic biochemistry concepts pertaining to DNA, while students in the control group completed a similar paper-based activity. A combination of general linear models and linear regression analysis was used to examine the data obtained. Post-hoc analyses were conducted for categorical variables when they were found to be significant contributors to the model tested. The results showed that there was no relationship between gender or ethnicity and academic Outcomes. Prior science coursework completed in college did not show a relationship with post-test scores, although number of science courses completed in high school was a significant predictor of academic outcomes. A relationship was observed between course rank and learning outcomes, as students with final course grades in the upper quartile of the sample scored significantly higher on the post-test than all others. The amount of variance in outcomes explained by prior

  20. Cognitive performance modeling based on general systems performance theory.

    PubMed

    Kondraske, George V

    2010-01-01

    General Systems Performance Theory (GSPT) was initially motivated by problems associated with quantifying different aspects of human performance. It has proved to be invaluable for measurement development and understanding quantitative relationships between human subsystem capacities and performance in complex tasks. It is now desired to bring focus to the application of GSPT to modeling of cognitive system performance. Previous studies involving two complex tasks (i.e., driving and performing laparoscopic surgery) and incorporating measures that are clearly related to cognitive performance (information processing speed and short-term memory capacity) were revisited. A GSPT-derived method of task analysis and performance prediction termed Nonlinear Causal Resource Analysis (NCRA) was employed to determine the demand on basic cognitive performance resources required to support different levels of complex task performance. This approach is presented as a means to determine a cognitive workload profile and the subsequent computation of a single number measure of cognitive workload (CW). Computation of CW may be a viable alternative to measuring it. Various possible "more basic" performance resources that contribute to cognitive system performance are discussed. It is concluded from this preliminary exploration that a GSPT-based approach can contribute to defining cognitive performance models that are useful for both individual subjects and specific groups (e.g., military pilots).

  1. A specific scenario for the origin of life and the genetic code based on peptide/oligonucleotide interdependence.

    PubMed

    Griffith, Robert W

    2009-12-01

    Among various scenarios that attempt to explain how life arose, the RNA world is currently the most widely accepted scientific hypothesis among biologists. However, the RNA world is logistically implausible and doesn't explain how translation arose and DNA became incorporated into living systems. Here I propose an alternative hypothesis for life's origin based on cooperation between simple nucleic acids, peptides and lipids. Organic matter that accumulated on the prebiotic Earth segregated into phases in the ocean based on density and solubility. Synthesis of complex organic monomers and polymerization reactions occurred within a surface hydrophilic layer and at its aqueous and atmospheric interfaces. Replication of nucleic acids and translation of peptides began at the emulsified interface between hydrophobic and aqueous layers. At the core of the protobiont was a family of short nucleic acids bearing arginine's codon and anticodon that added this amino acid to pre-formed peptides. In turn, the survival and replication of nucleic acid was aided by the peptides. The arginine-enriched peptides served to sequester and transfer phosphate bond energy and acted as cohesive agents, aggregating nucleic acids and keeping them at the interface.

  2. [Impact of demographic chance on pharmaceutical expenses in private health insurance--a scenario-based analysis].

    PubMed

    Böcking, W; Tidelski, O; Skuras, B; Bäumler, A; Kitzmann, F

    2012-08-01

    Health Insurance costs in Germany have grown constantly over the last years. This increase of costs is not only observable in the total consideration but also in all single items. An outstanding growth rate exists in the field of pharmaceutical expenses. Detailed analyses of distribution and development of these costs, separated by age and indication groups, are currently only sporadically available and mostly focusing on the Statutory Health Insurance system in Germany. This research article is based on an initial data analysis and focuses on the question how pharmaceutical expenses in a German private health insurance company will develop until the year 2050, if the observed trend of the past years continues in the same way. This analysis focuses on different age groups. The objective is the demonstration of several scenarios, which illustrate the level of influence of different parameters (demographic changes, developments of prices for pharmaceuticals). Based on the cognition of certain effects measures for handling the growing challenge of financing the health system can be deduced. As a result, both demographic changes and price effects have an significant impact on the future development of per capita pharmaceutical expenses. Whereas older age groups will still cause the highest costs, the middle-aged people will show the highest growth rates. This strong cost increase is not sustainable for the German health insurance system. In addition to previous measures of a regulatory health policy (especially improved cost-benefit-assessments) the article shows new approaches for an intensified prevention and health promotion.

  3. Proposed methodology for completion of scenario analysis for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project. [Assessment of post-closure performance for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste

    SciTech Connect

    Roberds, W.J.; Plum, R.J.; Visca, P.J.

    1984-11-01

    This report presents the methodology to complete an assessment of postclosure performance, considering all credible scenarios, including the nominal case, for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste at the Hanford Site, Washington State. The methodology consists of defensible techniques for identifying and screening scenarios, and for then assessing the risks associated with each. The results of the scenario analysis are used to comprehensively determine system performance and/or risk for evaluation of compliance with postclosure performance criteria (10 CFR 60 and 40 CFR 191). In addition to describing the proposed methodology, this report reviews available methodologies for scenario analysis, discusses pertinent performance assessment and uncertainty concepts, advises how to implement the methodology (including the organizational requirements and a description of tasks) and recommends how to use the methodology in guiding future site characterization, analysis, and engineered subsystem design work. 36 refs., 24 figs., 1 tab.

  4. Using an Animated Case Scenario Based on Constructivist 5E Model to Enhance Pre-Service Teachers' Awareness of Electrical Safety

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hirca, Necati

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study is to get pre-service teachers to develop an awareness of first aid knowledge and skills related to electrical shocking and safety within a scenario based animation based on a Constructivist 5E model. The sample of the study was composed of 78 (46 girls and 32 boys) pre-service classroom teachers from two faculties of…

  5. [A Study on the Cognitive Learning Effectiveness of Scenario-Based Concept Mapping in a Neurological Nursing Course].

    PubMed

    Pan, Hui-Ching; Hsieh, Suh-Ing; Hsu, Li-Ling

    2015-12-01

    The multiple levels of knowledge related to the neurological system deter many students from pursuing studies on this topic. Thus, in facing complicated and uncertain medical circumstances, nursing students have diffi-culty adjusting and using basic neurological-nursing knowledge and skills. Scenario-based concept-mapping teaching has been shown to promote the integration of complicated data, clarify related concepts, and increase the effectiveness of cognitive learning. To investigate the effect on the neurological-nursing cognition and learning attitude of nursing students of a scenario-based concept-mapping strategy that was integrated into the neurological nursing unit of a medical and surgical nursing course. This quasi-experimental study used experimental and control groups and a pre-test / post-test design. Sopho-more (2nd year) students in a four-year program at a university of science and technology in Taiwan were convenience sampled using cluster randomization that was run under SPSS 17.0. Concept-mapping lessons were used as the intervention for the experimental group. The control group followed traditional lesson plans only. The cognitive learning outcome was measured using the neurological nursing-learning examination. Both concept-mapping and traditional lessons significantly improved post-test neurological nursing learning scores (p < .001), with no significant difference between the two groups (p = .51). The post-test feedback from the control group mentioned that too much content was taught and that difficulties were experienced in understanding mechanisms and in absorbing knowledge. In contrast, the experimental group held a significantly more positive perspective and learning attitude with regard to the teaching material. Furthermore, a significant number in the experimental group expressed the desire to add more lessons on anatomy, physiology, and pathology. These results indicate that this intervention strategy may help change the widespread

  6. Medical Content Searching, Retrieving, and Sharing Over the Internet: Lessons Learned From the mEducator Through a Scenario-Based Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Spachos, Dimitris; Mylläri, Jarkko; Giordano, Daniela; Dafli, Eleni; Mitsopoulou, Evangelia; Schizas, Christos N; Pattichis, Constantinos; Nikolaidou, Maria

    2015-01-01

    Background The mEducator Best Practice Network (BPN) implemented and extended standards and reference models in e-learning to develop innovative frameworks as well as solutions that enable specialized state-of-the-art medical educational content to be discovered, retrieved, shared, and re-purposed across European Institutions, targeting medical students, doctors, educators and health care professionals. Scenario-based evaluation for usability testing, complemented with data from online questionnaires and field notes of users’ performance, was designed and utilized for the evaluation of these solutions. Objective The objective of this work is twofold: (1) to describe one instantiation of the mEducator BPN solutions (mEducator3.0 - “MEdical Education LINnked Arena” MELINA+) with a focus on the metadata schema used, as well as on other aspects of the system that pertain to usability and acceptance, and (2) to present evaluation results on the suitability of the proposed metadata schema for searching, retrieving, and sharing of medical content and with respect to the overall usability and acceptance of the system from the target users. Methods A comprehensive evaluation methodology framework was developed and applied to four case studies, which were conducted in four different countries (ie, Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria and Romania), with a total of 126 participants. In these case studies, scenarios referring to creating, sharing, and retrieving medical educational content using mEducator3.0 were used. The data were collected through two online questionnaires, consisting of 36 closed-ended questions and two open-ended questions that referred to mEducator 3.0 and through the use of field notes during scenario-based evaluations. Results The main findings of the study showed that even though the informational needs of the mEducator target groups were addressed to a satisfactory extent and the metadata schema supported content creation, sharing, and retrieval from an end

  7. Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H.; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

    2017-03-01

    The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

  8. Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

    2017-03-01

    The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

  9. Attractive scenario writing.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Yuzo; Oku, Sachiko Alexandra

    2009-05-01

    This article describes the key steps of scenario writing to facilitate problem-based learning discussion to aid student learning of basic medical science in combination with clinical medicine. The scenario has to amplify and deepen the students' thinking so that they can correlate findings from the case and knowledge from textbooks. This can be achieved in three ways: (1) a comparison of cases; (2) demonstrating a scientific link between symptoms and basic medicine; and (3) introducing a personal and emotional aspect to the scenario. A comparison of two cases enables us to shed light on the pathological differences and think about the underlying biological mechanisms. These include: (a) a comparison of two cases with similar symptoms, but different diseases; (b) a comparison of two cases with different symptoms, but the same cause; and (c) a comparison of two cases, with an easy case, followed by a complicated case. The scenarios may be disclosed in a sequence to show a scientific link between symptoms of the patient and basic medicine, which may help to cultivate a physician with a scientific mind. Examples are given by the relationship between: (a) symptoms, pathology and morphology; and (b) symptoms, pathology and physiology. When the scenario is written in such a way that students are personally and/or emotionally involved in the case, they will be more motivated in learning as if involved in the case themselves. To facilitate this, the scenario can be written in the first-person perspective. Examples include "I had a very bad headache, and vomited several times...", and "I noticed that my father was screaming at night...". The description of the events may be in chronological order with actual time, which makes students feel as if they are really the primary responding person.

  10. Characterization of maritime scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Low, Tom B.; Hudak, D. R.

    1992-09-01

    Meteorological modules were developed to describe characteristic maritime scenarios in various oceanic areas for DREV complimentarity studies of shipboard defense. The best means of depicting the maritime atmospheric environment was found to be on the basis of air mass analysis. A methodology was developed whereby, through a mixture of man-machine objective analysis of upper air radiosonde measurements at the 850, 700, and 500 mb levels, typical airmasses could be identified. Characteristic scenarios were then defined based on physical considerations of air mass theory. Utilizing an extensive 10-year set of worldwide radiosonde, ozondesonde, and surface observations collected from a combination of land-based stations, oceanographic buoys, and weather ships, frequency and correlation statistics of various global and derived meteorological and oceanographic parameters were established for the CANLANT, NORLANT, WESTLANT, EASTLANT, IBERLANT, MARPAC regions, the ARCTIC OCEAN to 85 degree(s)N, the BALTIC SEA, MEDITERRANEAN SEA, PERSIAN GULF, RED SEA, GULF OF OMAN, and the INDIAN OCEAN. These descriptions included atmospheric profiles of pressure, temperature, dewpoint and relative humidity, wind speeds and direction, refractivity index, and ozone concentration from the surface to approximately 20 km., as well as associated surface visibility, clouds and weather, sea state, and duct height conditions. Many of the derived parameters were found to be a strong function of the defining airmass scenarios. The spatial distribution of these scenarios was also determined.

  11. Student Performance along Axes of Scenario Novelty and Complexity in Introductory Biology: Lessons from a Unique Factorial Approach to Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Deane-Coe, Kirsten K.; Sarvary, Mark A.; Owens, Thomas G.

    2017-01-01

    In an undergraduate introductory biology laboratory course, we used a summative assessment to directly test the learning objective that students will be able to apply course material to increasingly novel and complex situations. Using a factorial framework, we developed multiple true–false questions to fall along axes of novelty and complexity, which resulted in four categories of questions: familiar content and low complexity (category A); novel content and low complexity (category B); familiar content and high complexity (category C); and novel content and high complexity (category D). On average, students scored more than 70% on all questions, indicating that the course largely met this learning objective. However, students scored highest on questions in category A, likely because they were most similar to course content, and lowest on questions in categories C and D. While we anticipated students would score equally on questions for which either novelty or complexity was altered (but not both), we observed that student scores in category C were lower than in category B. Furthermore, students performed equally poorly on all questions for which complexity was higher (categories C and D), even those containing familiar content, suggesting that application of course material to increasingly complex situations is particularly challenging to students. PMID:28130270

  12. Moving from pixels to parcels: Modeling agricultural scenarios in the northern Great Plains using a hybrid raster- and vector-based approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sohl, T.; Wika, S.; Dornbierer, J.; Sayler, K. L.; Quenzer, R.

    2015-12-01

    Policy and economic driving forces have resulted in a higher demand for biofuel feedstocks in recent years, resulting in substantial increases in cultivated cropland in the northern Great Plains. A cellulosic-based biofuel industry could potentially further impact the region, with grassland and marginal agricultural land converted to perennial grasses or other feedstocks. Scenarios of projected land-use change are needed to enable regional stakeholders to plan for the potential consequences of expanded agricultural activity. Land-use models used to produce spatially explicit scenarios are typically raster-based and are poor at representing ownership units on which land-use change is based. This work describes a hybrid raster/vector-based modeling approach for modeling scenarios of agricultural change in the northern Great Plains. Regional scenarios of agricultural change from 2012 to 2050 were constructed, based partly on the U.S. Department of Energy's Billion Ton Update. Land-use data built from the 2012 Cropland Data Layer and the 2011 National Land Cover Database was used to establish initial conditions. Field boundaries from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Common Land Unit dataset were used to establish ownership units. A modified version of the U.S. Geological Survey's Forecasting Scenarios of land-use (FORE-SCE) model was used to ingest vector-based field boundaries to facilitate the modeling of a farmer's choice of land use for a given year, while patch-based raster methodologies were used to represent expansion of urban/developed lands and other land use conversions. All modeled data were merged to a common raster dataset representing annual land use from 2012 to 2050. The hybrid modeling approach enabled the use of traditional, raster-based methods while integrating vector-based data to represent agricultural fields and other ownership-based units upon which land-use decisions are typically made.

  13. Student Performance along Axes of Scenario Novelty and Complexity in Introductory Biology: Lessons from a Unique Factorial Approach to Assessment.

    PubMed

    Deane-Coe, Kirsten K; Sarvary, Mark A; Owens, Thomas G

    2017-01-01

    In an undergraduate introductory biology laboratory course, we used a summative assessment to directly test the learning objective that students will be able to apply course material to increasingly novel and complex situations. Using a factorial framework, we developed multiple true-false questions to fall along axes of novelty and complexity, which resulted in four categories of questions: familiar content and low complexity (category A); novel content and low complexity (category B); familiar content and high complexity (category C); and novel content and high complexity (category D). On average, students scored more than 70% on all questions, indicating that the course largely met this learning objective. However, students scored highest on questions in category A, likely because they were most similar to course content, and lowest on questions in categories C and D. While we anticipated students would score equally on questions for which either novelty or complexity was altered (but not both), we observed that student scores in category C were lower than in category B. Furthermore, students performed equally poorly on all questions for which complexity was higher (categories C and D), even those containing familiar content, suggesting that application of course material to increasingly complex situations is particularly challenging to students. © 2017 K. K. Deane-Coe et al. CBE—Life Sciences Education © 2017 The American Society for Cell Biology. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). It is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

  14. Greenhouse gas emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production addressing different land conversion scenarios in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Akhir, Nurul Izzati Mat; Mohamat-Yusuff, Ferdaus; Awang, Muhamad

    2017-02-01

    The environmental impacts with regard to agro-based biofuel production have been associated with the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, field GHG emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production associated with land use changes for oil palm plantation development have been evaluated. Three different sites of different land use changes prior to oil palm plantation were chosen; converted land-use (large and small-scales) and logged-over forest. Field sampling for determination of soil N-mineralisation and soil organic carbon (SOC) was undertaken at the sites according to the age of palm, i.e. <5 years (immature), 5-20 and >21 years (mature oil palms). The field data were incorporated into the estimation of nitrous oxide (N2O) and the resulting CO2-eq emissions as well as for estimation of carbon stock changes. Irrespective of the land conversion scenarios, the nitrous oxide emissions were found in the range of 6.47-7.78 kg N2O-N/ha resulting in 498-590 kg CO2-eq/ha. On the other hand, the conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantation has resulted in relatively higher GHG emissions (i.e. four times higher and carbon stock reduction by >50%) compared to converted land use (converted rubber plantation) for oil palm development. The conversion from previously rubber plantation into oil palm plantation would increase the carbon savings (20% in increase) thus sustaining the environmental benefits from the palm oil-based biofuel production.

  15. Performing Gender: A Discourse Analysis of Theatre-Based Sexual Violence Prevention Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iverson, Susan V.

    2006-01-01

    Among the numerous approaches that are employed to prevent sexual violence, the performance of scenarios has become one of the "promising practices" in U.S. postsecondary education. This article describes findings from a pilot study to analyze scripts used for theatre-based sexual violence prevention programs. Employing the method of…

  16. Performing Gender: A Discourse Analysis of Theatre-Based Sexual Violence Prevention Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iverson, Susan V.

    2006-01-01

    Among the numerous approaches that are employed to prevent sexual violence, the performance of scenarios has become one of the "promising practices" in U.S. postsecondary education. This article describes findings from a pilot study to analyze scripts used for theatre-based sexual violence prevention programs. Employing the method of…

  17. Preliminary Safety Analysis of the Gorleben Site: Safety Concept and Application to Scenario Development Based on a Site-Specific Features, Events and Processes (FEP) Database - 13304

    SciTech Connect

    Moenig, Joerg; Beuth, Thomas; Wolf, Jens; Lommerzheim, Andre; Mrugalla, Sabine

    2013-07-01

    Based upon the German safety criteria, released in 2010 by the Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU), a safety concept and a safety assessment concept for the disposal of heat-generating high-level waste have both been developed in the framework of the preliminary safety case for the Gorleben site (Project VSG). The main objective of the disposal is to contain the radioactive waste inside a defined rock zone, which is called containment-providing rock zone. The radionuclides shall remain essentially at the emplacement site, and at the most, a small defined quantity of material shall be able to leave this rock zone. This shall be accomplished by the geological barrier and a technical barrier system, which is required to seal the inevitable penetration of the geological barrier by the construction of the mine. The safe containment has to be demonstrated for probable and less probable evolutions of the site, while evolutions with very low probability (less than 1 % over the demonstration period of 1 million years) need not to be considered. Owing to the uncertainty in predicting the real evolution of the site, plausible scenarios have been derived in a systematic manner. Therefore, a comprehensive site-specific features, events and processes (FEP) data base for the Gorleben site has been developed. The safety concept was directly taken into account, e.g. by identification of FEP with direct influence on the barriers that provide the containment. No effort was spared to identify the interactions of the FEP, their probabilities of occurrence, and their characteristics (values). The information stored in the data base provided the basis for the development of scenarios. The scenario development methodology is based on FEP related to an impairment of the functionality of a subset of barriers, called initial barriers. By taking these FEP into account in their probable characteristics the reference scenario is derived. Thus, the reference scenario describes a

  18. A scenario for solar wind penetration of earth's magnetic tail based on ion composition data from the ISEE 1 spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lennartsson, W.

    1992-01-01

    Based on He(2+) and H(-) ion composition data from the Plasma Composition Experiment on ISEE 1, a scenario is proposed for the solar wind penetration of the earth's magnetic tail, which does not require that the solar wind plasma be magnetized. While this study does not take issue with the notion that earth's magnetic field merges with the solar wind magnetic field on a regular basis, it focuses on certain aspects of interaction between the solar wind particles and the earth's field, e.g, the fact that the geomagnetic tail always has a plasma sheet, even during times when the physical signs of magnetic merging are weak or absent. It is argued that the solar plasma enters along slots between the tail lobes and the plasma sheet, even quite close to earth, convected inward along the plasma sheet boundary layer or adjacent to it, by the electric fringe field of the ever present low-latitude magnetopause boundary layer (LLBL). The required E x B drifts are produced by closing LLBL equipotential surfaces through the plasma sheet.

  19. A scenario for solar wind penetration of earth's magnetic tail based on ion composition data from the ISEE 1 spacecraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lennartsson, W.

    1992-12-01

    Based on He(2+) and H(-) ion composition data from the Plasma Composition Experiment on ISEE 1, a scenario is proposed for the solar wind penetration of the earth's magnetic tail, which does not require that the solar wind plasma be magnetized. While this study does not take issue with the notion that earth's magnetic field merges with the solar wind magnetic field on a regular basis, it focuses on certain aspects of interaction between the solar wind particles and the earth's field, e.g, the fact that the geomagnetic tail always has a plasma sheet, even during times when the physical signs of magnetic merging are weak or absent. It is argued that the solar plasma enters along slots between the tail lobes and the plasma sheet, even quite close to earth, convected inward along the plasma sheet boundary layer or adjacent to it, by the electric fringe field of the ever present low-latitude magnetopause boundary layer (LLBL). The required E x B drifts are produced by closing LLBL equipotential surfaces through the plasma sheet.

  20. Resonance conditions for Mom93 isomer depletion via nuclear excitation by electron capture in a beam-based scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polasik, M.; Słabkowska, K.; Carroll, J. J.; Chiara, C. J.; Syrocki, Ł.; WÈ©der, E.; Rzadkiewicz, J.

    2017-03-01

    We present here a comprehensive analysis to understand the optimal atomic conditions for the first experimental observation of nuclear excitation by electron capture (NEEC) for the 6.85 h Mom93 isomer with spin parity 21 /2+ . The NEEC process would provide an excitation from the long-lived isomer to a depletion level with spin parity 17 /2+ , which lies only 4.85 keV higher in energy, and is itself a shorter-lived isomer that subsequently decays, releasing a substantial amount of stored energy (2429.8 keV). The depletion level decays to a 13 /2+ state through a 267.9-keV transition that offers the opportunity for identification of NEEC because it does not occur in the natural decay of the long-lived isomer. It has been shown that, for the proposed approach, high-precision atomic predictions are essential to understanding the proper physical conditions under which the experimental observation of the NEEC process will be possible using a beam-based scenario.

  1. Demonstrating freedom from disease using multiple complex data sources 1: a new methodology based on scenario trees.

    PubMed

    Martin, P A J; Cameron, A R; Greiner, M

    2007-05-16

    Current methods to demonstrate zone or country freedom from disease are based on either quantitative analysis of the results of structured representative surveys, or qualitative assessments of multiple sources of evidence (including complex non-representative sources). This paper presents a methodology for objective quantitative analysis of multiple complex data sources to support claims of freedom from disease. Stochastic scenario tree models are used to describe each component of a surveillance system (SSC), and used to estimate the sensitivity of each SSC. The process of building and analysing the models is described, as well as techniques to take into account any lack of independence between units at different levels within a SSC. The combination of sensitivity estimates from multiple SSCs into a single estimate for the entire surveillance system is also considered, again taking into account lack of independence between components. A sensitivity ratio is used to compare different components of a surveillance system. Finally, calculation of the probability of country freedom from the estimated sensitivity of the surveillance system is illustrated, incorporating the use and valuation of historical surveillance evidence.

  2. Differential Effects of a Multimedia Goal-Based Scenario to Teach Introductory Biochemistry—Who Benefits Most?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoenfeld-Tacher, Regina; Jones, Loretta L.; Persichitte, Kay A.

    2001-12-01

    This study investigated the relationship of cognitive and demographic variables to learning outcomes from a multimedia Goal-Based Scenario (GBS) lesson on DNA. The demographic variables under investigation were gender, ethnicity, prior science coursework in college and high school, final score in current chemistry course, and prior experience with computers. The cognitive variables under study were logical thinking ability, spatial ability, and disembedding ability. The subjects for this study were a total of 488 college students enrolled in introductory chemistry classes for nonmajors at one of four participating institutions in the United States and Canada. All subjects completed content pre- and posttests, a demographic questionnaire, and three cognitive tests: Test of Logical Thinking, Hidden Figures Test, and Purdue Visualization of Rotations Test. Students completed Whodunnit?, a multimedia GBS developed to teach basic biochemistry concepts pertaining to DNA. Logical thinking ability was the only cognitive variable to show a relationship with learning outcomes. There was no relationship between gender or ethnicity and academic outcomes. The number of science courses completed in high school was a significant predictor of academic outcomes. A relationship was observed between course rank and learning outcomes, as students with final course grades in the upper quartile of the sample scored significantly higher on the posttest than those in all other quartiles.

  3. Combined magnetic and kinetic control of advanced tokamak steady state scenarios based on semi-empirical modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreau, D.; Artaud, J. F.; Ferron, J. R.; Holcomb, C. T.; Humphreys, D. A.; Liu, F.; Luce, T. C.; Park, J. M.; Prater, R.; Turco, F.; Walker, M. L.

    2015-06-01

    This paper shows that semi-empirical data-driven models based on a two-time-scale approximation for the magnetic and kinetic control of advanced tokamak (AT) scenarios can be advantageously identified from simulated rather than real data, and used for control design. The method is applied to the combined control of the safety factor profile, q(x), and normalized pressure parameter, βN, using DIII-D parameters and actuators (on-axis co-current neutral beam injection (NBI) power, off-axis co-current NBI power, electron cyclotron current drive power, and ohmic coil). The approximate plasma response model was identified from simulated open-loop data obtained using a rapidly converging plasma transport code, METIS, which includes an MHD equilibrium and current diffusion solver, and combines plasma transport nonlinearity with 0D scaling laws and 1.5D ordinary differential equations. The paper discusses the results of closed-loop METIS simulations, using the near-optimal ARTAEMIS control algorithm (Moreau D et al 2013 Nucl. Fusion 53 063020) for steady state AT operation. With feedforward plus feedback control, the steady state target q-profile and βN are satisfactorily tracked with a time scale of about 10 s, despite large disturbances applied to the feedforward powers and plasma parameters. The robustness of the control algorithm with respect to disturbances of the H&CD actuators and of plasma parameters such as the H-factor, plasma density and effective charge, is also shown.

  4. Development of a disruption precursor based on rotating mhd instabilities and its application to JET H-mode plasma scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sozzi, Carlo; Alessi, Edoardo; Baruzzo, Matteo; Gerasimov, Sergei; JET Contributors Team

    2016-10-01

    Magneto-hydrodynamic activity often precedes disruption events in tokamaks, being either the root cause for disruption or one of the last symptoms of plasma deterioration due to a different root cause. Often a locked mode is detected before the plasma termination, with a warning time useful to trigger mitigation strategies but not enough for recovery, i.e. to act to avoid the disruption. In this work we present a study of disruption precursors derived from the Singular Value Decomposition analysis of the signals of a 3-d array of pick-up coils. Such signals are sensitive to rotating magneto-hydrodynamic activity before the locking phase. The analysis has been applied to the dataset of H-mode plasma scenario being developed at JET in preparation of the DT campaign. It is shown that using this technique a reasonable good rate of right/false alarms (81%/16%) can be obtained with an extended warning time (4-7s). Moreover, since such precursors are based on the phase analysis of normalized signals they are rather insensitive to calibration problems and show a potential for more general application.. Supported by EUROfusion Grant 633053.

  5. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goda, Katsuichiro; Yasuda, Tomohiro; Mori, Nobuhito; Mai, P. Martin

    2015-06-01

    The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints.

  6. Perspectives on Performance-Based Incentive Plans.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duttweiler, Patricia Cloud; Ramos-Cancel, Maria L.

    This document is a synthesis of the current literature on performance-based incentive systems for teachers and administrators. Section one provides an introduction to the reform movement and to performance-based pay initiatives; a definition of terms; a brief discussion of funding sources; a discussion of compensation strategies; a description of…

  7. Enhanced confinement scenarios without large edge localized modes in tokamaks: control, performance, and extrapolability issues for ITER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maingi, R.

    2014-11-01

    Large edge localized modes (ELMs) typically accompany good H-mode confinement in fusion devices, but can present problems for plasma facing components because of high transient heat loads. Here the range of techniques for ELM control deployed in fusion devices is reviewed. Two strategies in the ITER baseline design are emphasized: rapid ELM triggering and peak heat flux control via pellet injection, and the use of magnetic perturbations to suppress or mitigate ELMs. While both of these techniques are moderately well developed, with reasonable physical bases for projecting to ITER, differing observations between multiple devices are also discussed to highlight the needed community R&D. In addition, recent progress in ELM-free regimes, namely quiescent H-mode, I-mode, and enhanced pedestal H-mode is reviewed, and open questions for extrapolability are discussed. Finally progress and outstanding issues in alternate ELM control techniques are reviewed: supersonic molecular beam injection, edge electron cyclotron heating, lower hybrid heating and/or current drive, controlled periodic jogs of the vertical centroid position, ELM pace-making via periodic magnetic perturbations, ELM elimination with lithium wall conditioning, and naturally occurring small ELM regimes.

  8. Enhanced Confinement Scenarios Without Large Edge Localized Modes in Tokamaks: Control, Performance, and Extrapolability Issues for ITER

    SciTech Connect

    Maingi, R

    2014-07-01

    Large edge localized modes (ELMs) typically accompany good H-mode confinement in fusion devices, but can present problems for plasma facing components because of high transient heat loads. Here the range of techniques for ELM control deployed in fusion devices is reviewed. The two baseline strategies in the ITER baseline design are emphasized: rapid ELM triggering and peak heat flux control via pellet injection, and the use of magnetic perturbations to suppress or mitigate ELMs. While both of these techniques are moderately well developed, with reasonable physical bases for projecting to ITER, differing observations between multiple devices are also discussed to highlight the needed community R & D. In addition, recent progress in ELM-free regimes, namely Quiescent H-mode, I-mode, and Enhanced Pedestal H-mode is reviewed, and open questions for extrapolability are discussed. Finally progress and outstanding issues in alternate ELM control techniques are reviewed: supersonic molecular beam injection, edge electron cyclotron heating, lower hybrid heating and/or current drive, controlled periodic jogs of the vertical centroid position, ELM pace-making via periodic magnetic perturbations, ELM elimination with lithium wall conditioning, and naturally occurring small ELM regimes.

  9. TAP 2: Performance-Based Training Manual

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-08-01

    Cornerstone of safe operation of DOE nuclear facilities is personnel performing day-to-day functions which accomplish the facility mission. Performance-based training is fundamental to the safe operation. This manual has been developed to support the Training Accreditation Program (TAP) and assist contractors in efforts to develop performance-based training programs. It provides contractors with narrative procedures on performance-based training that can be modified and incorporated for facility-specific application. It is divided into sections dealing with analysis, design, development, implementation, and evaluation.

  10. A Statistical Bias Correction Tool for Generating Climate Change Scenarios in Indonesia based on CMIP5 Datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faqih, A.

    2017-03-01

    Providing information regarding future climate scenarios is very important in climate change study. The climate scenario can be used as basic information to support adaptation and mitigation studies. In order to deliver future climate scenarios over specific region, baseline and projection data from the outputs of global climate models (GCM) is needed. However, due to its coarse resolution, the data have to be downscaled and bias corrected in order to get scenario data with better spatial resolution that match the characteristics of the observed data. Generating this downscaled data is mostly difficult for scientist who do not have specific background, experience and skill in dealing with the complex data from the GCM outputs. In this regards, it is necessary to develop a tool that can be used to simplify the downscaling processes in order to help scientist, especially in Indonesia, for generating future climate scenario data that can be used for their climate change-related studies. In this paper, we introduce a tool called as “Statistical Bias Correction for Climate Scenarios (SiBiaS)”. The tool is specially designed to facilitate the use of CMIP5 GCM data outputs and process their statistical bias corrections relative to the reference data from observations. It is prepared for supporting capacity building in climate modeling in Indonesia as part of the Indonesia 3rd National Communication (TNC) project activities.

  11. Integrated core-SOL-divertor modelling for ITER including impurity: effect of tungsten on fusion performance in H-mode and hybrid scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zagórski, R.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Ivanova-Stanik, I.; Köchl, F.; Belo, P.; Fable, E.; Garcia, J.; Garzotti, L.; Hobirk, J.; Hogeweij, G. M. D.; Joffrin, E.; Litaudon, X.; Polevoi, A. R.; Telesca, G.; contributors, JET

    2015-05-01

    The compatibility of two operational constraints—operation above the L-H power threshold and at low power to divertor—is examined for ITER long pulse H-mode and hybrid scenarios in integrated core-scrape off layer (SOL)-divertor modelling including impurities (intrinsic Be, He, W and seeded Ne). The core thermal, particle and momentum transport is simulated with the GLF23 transport model tested in the self-consistent simulations of temperatures, density and toroidal rotation velocity in JET hybrid discharges and extrapolated to ITER. The beneficial effect of toroidal rotation velocity on fusion gain is shown. The sensitivity studies with respect to operational (separatrix and pedestal density, Ne gas puff) and unknown physics (W convective velocity and perpendicular diffusion in SOL as well as W prompt re-deposition) parameters are performed to determine their influence on the operational window and fusion gain.

  12. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Aguirre, Erik; Lopez-Iturri, Peio; Azpilicueta, Leyre; Astrain, José Javier; Villadangos, Jesús; Santesteban, Daniel; Falcone, Francisco

    2016-08-30

    The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities.

  13. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Aguirre, Erik; Lopez-Iturri, Peio; Azpilicueta, Leyre; Astrain, José Javier; Villadangos, Jesús; Santesteban, Daniel; Falcone, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities. PMID:27589751

  14. Misunderstood Superheroes: Batman and Performance Based Logistics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-02-01

    Misunderstood S u p e r h e r o e s Batman and Performance-Based Logistics Randy T. Fowler Defense AT&L: January-February 2009 8 Illustration by...ally questioned. Sound familiar? Are we talking about Batman or PBL (perfor- mance-based logistics, or alternatively, performance-based life cycle...product support)? Batman captures our imagination because he is an uncom- mon superhero. His methods don’t conform to established practices. The

  15. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  16. Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Huynen, Maud M. T. E.; Martens, Pim

    2015-01-01

    Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981–2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature–mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI’14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%–7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%–2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050—accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend—show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments. PMID:26512680

  17. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

    PubMed

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  18. Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment.

    PubMed

    Huynen, Maud M T E; Martens, Pim

    2015-10-23

    Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981-2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature-mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI'14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%-7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%-2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050-accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend-show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments.

  19. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  20. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    DOE PAGES

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...

    2016-09-28

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  1. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-28

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  2. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  3. Projected Climate change effects on North Sea and Baltic Sea: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-Based Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pushpadas, Dhanya; Schrum, Corinna; Daewel, Ute

    2015-04-01

    Climate change impacts on the marine biogeochemistry and lower trophic level dynamics in the North Sea and Baltic Sea have been assessed using regional downscaling in a number of recent studies. However, most of these where only forced by physical conditions from Global Climate Models and regional downscaling considering the climate change impact on oceanic nutrient conditions from Global Earth System Models (ESMs) are rare and so far solely based on CMIP3-generation climate models. The few studies published show a large range in projected future primary production and hydrodynamic condition. With the addition of CMIP5 models and scenarios, the demand to explore the uncertainty in regional climate change projections increased. Moreover, the question arise how projections based on CMIP5-generation models compare to earlier projections and multi-model ensembles comprising both, AR4 and AR5 generation forcing models are increasingly asked for. Here, we investigated the potential future climate change impacts to the North Sea and the Baltic Sea ecosystem using a coherent regional downscaling strategy based on the regional coupled bio-physical model ECOSMO. ECOSMO was forced by output from different ESMs from both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Multi-model ensembles using CMIP3/A1B and CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios are examined, where the selected CMIP5 models are the successors of the chosen CMIP3 models. Comparing projected changes with the present day reference condition, all these simulations predicted an increase in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in both North Sea and Baltic Sea, reduction in sea ice in the Baltic, decrease in primary production in the North Sea and an increase in primary production in the Baltic Sea. Despite these largely consistent results on the direction of the projected changes, our results revealed a broad range in the amplitude of projected climate change impacts. Our study strengthens the claim that the choice of the ESM is a major factor for regional

  4. Registered nurses' thinking strategies on malnutrition and pressure ulcers in nursing homes: a scenario-based think-aloud study.

    PubMed

    Fossum, Mariann; Alexander, Gregory L; Göransson, Katarina E; Ehnfors, Margareta; Ehrenberg, Anna

    2011-09-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the thinking strategies and clinical reasoning processes registered nurses use during simulated care planning for malnutrition and pressure ulcers in nursing home care. Clinical reasoning is an essential component of nursing practice. Registered nurses' thinking strategies and clinical reasoning have received limited attention in nursing science. Further research is needed to understand registered nurses' clinical reasoning, especially for prevention of malnutrition and pressure ulcers as they are important quality indicators of resident care in nursing homes. A qualitative explorative design was used with a think-aloud interview technique. The transcribed verbalisations were analysed with qualitative deductive content analysis. Data were collected during six months in 2007-2008 from 30 registered nurses at nine nursing homes in Norway. The registered nurses used a variety of thinking strategies, but there were differences in the frequency of use of the different strategies. The three most commonly used thinking strategies were 'making choices', 'forming relationships' and 'drawing conclusions'. None of the nurses performed a structured risk assessment of malnutrition or pressure ulcers. Registered nurses started with assessing data from the scenarios, but after a short and elementary assessment they moved directly to planning. Many different thinking strategies were used in registered nurses' clinical reasoning for prevention of malnutrition and pressure ulcers. The thinking strategy 'making choices' was most commonly used and registered nurses' main focus in their reasoning was on planning nursing interventions. This study showed that most of the registered nurses go directly to planning when reasoning clinically about residents in nursing homes. A lack of systematic risk assessments was identified. The insight gained from this study can be used to recommend improvements in tools designed for nursing homes to support the

  5. Alternative scenarios: harnessing mid-level providers and evidence-based practice in primary dental care in England through operational research.

    PubMed

    Wanyonyi, Kristina L; Radford, David R; Harper, Paul R; Gallagher, Jennifer E

    2015-09-15

    In primary care dentistry, strategies to reconfigure the traditional boundaries of various dental professional groups by task sharing and role substitution have been encouraged in order to meet changing oral health needs. The aim of this research was to investigate the potential for skill mix use in primary dental care in England based on the undergraduate training experience in a primary care team training centre for dentists and mid-level dental providers. An operational research model and four alternative scenarios to test the potential for skill mix use in primary care in England were developed, informed by the model of care at a primary dental care training centre in the south of England, professional policy including scope of practice and contemporary evidence-based preventative practice. The model was developed in Excel and drew on published national timings and salary costs. The scenarios included the following: "No Skill Mix", "Minimal Direct Access", "More Prevention" and "Maximum Delegation". The scenario outputs comprised clinical time, workforce numbers and salary costs required for state-funded primary dental care in England. The operational research model suggested that 73% of clinical time in England's state-funded primary dental care in 2011/12 was spent on tasks that may be delegated to dental care professionals (DCPs), and 45- to 54-year-old patients received the most clinical time overall. Using estimated National Health Service (NHS) clinical working patterns, the model suggested alternative NHS workforce numbers and salary costs to meet the dental demand based on each developed scenario. For scenario 1:"No Skill Mix", the dentist-only scenario, 81% of the dentists currently registered in England would be required to participate. In scenario 2: "Minimal Direct Access", where 70% of examinations were delegated and the primary care training centre delegation patterns for other treatments were practised, 40% of registered dentists and eight times

  6. ICT-Supported, Scenario-Based Learning in Preclinical Veterinary Science Education: Quantifying Learning Outcomes and Facilitating the Novice-Expert Transition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seddon, Jennifer M.; McDonald, Brenda; Schmidt, Adele L.

    2012-01-01

    Problem and/or scenario-based learning is often deployed in preclinical education and training as a means of: (a) developing students' capacity to respond to authentic, real-world problems; (b) facilitating integration of knowledge across subject areas, and; (c) increasing motivation for learning. Six information and communication technology (ICT)…

  7. A Study of the Competency of Third Year Medical Students to Interpret Biochemically Based Clinical Scenarios Using Knowledge and Skills Gained in Year 1 and 2

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gowda, Veena Bhaskar S.; Nagaiah, Bhaskar Hebbani; Sengodan, Bharathi

    2016-01-01

    Medical students build clinical knowledge on the grounds of previously obtained basic knowledge. The study aimed to evaluate the competency of third year medical students to interpret biochemically based clinical scenarios using knowledge and skills gained during year 1 and 2 of undergraduate medical training. Study was conducted on year 3 MBBS…

  8. ICT-Supported, Scenario-Based Learning in Preclinical Veterinary Science Education: Quantifying Learning Outcomes and Facilitating the Novice-Expert Transition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seddon, Jennifer M.; McDonald, Brenda; Schmidt, Adele L.

    2012-01-01

    Problem and/or scenario-based learning is often deployed in preclinical education and training as a means of: (a) developing students' capacity to respond to authentic, real-world problems; (b) facilitating integration of knowledge across subject areas, and; (c) increasing motivation for learning. Six information and communication technology (ICT)…

  9. A Study of the Competency of Third Year Medical Students to Interpret Biochemically Based Clinical Scenarios Using Knowledge and Skills Gained in Year 1 and 2

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gowda, Veena Bhaskar S.; Nagaiah, Bhaskar Hebbani; Sengodan, Bharathi

    2016-01-01

    Medical students build clinical knowledge on the grounds of previously obtained basic knowledge. The study aimed to evaluate the competency of third year medical students to interpret biochemically based clinical scenarios using knowledge and skills gained during year 1 and 2 of undergraduate medical training. Study was conducted on year 3 MBBS…

  10. Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Villarreal, Miguel; Labiosa, Bill; Aiello, Danielle

    2017-05-23

    The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

  11. Developing paleoclimate, historical and GCM based future scenarios of moisture indices for upper sub-basins in the Canadian Rockies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sauchyn, D.; Lapp, S. L.; St. Jacques, J.; Vanstone, J. R.; MacDonald, R. J.; Byrne, J. M.

    2010-12-01

    The 20th century hydroclimatology of the Pacific Northwest has been linked to natural recurring large-scale climate patterns such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Tree-ring proxy data analyses carried out in western North America has proven valuable to quantify natural climate variation over centuries to millennia. This presentation describes an ongoing project linking dendro climate records and GCM (Global Climate Model) scenarios to the GENESYS (Generate Earth Systems Science input) Model. GENESYS is a fine-scale physically-based, spatial hydrometeorological model that has been shown to provide reasonable estimates of hydrometeorological conditions in complex terrain of mountain watersheds. Reconstructions of moisture indices and snowpack, from the GENESYS model output, for mountain regions in western Canada provide records of drought for the past 200-800 yrs. We are able to mine these long reconstructions for much more information about the frequency / duration of positive (wet) and negative (dry) moisture anomalies during difference phases of PDO and ENSO, as reconstructed from tree-ring datasets. As well, by comparing these moisture reconstructions to temperature reconstructions of the region we are able to identify warm/cool drought periods. These reconstructions reflect the seasonal changes in moisture relative to both the instrumental and future time periods. The large-scale climate patterns will also be derived from multiple GCMs, for the 21st century, as tools to better understand projections of future moisture variability. Decision makers responsible for adaptation to climate variability and change may use our forecasts of persistent departures from mean hydroclimate to plan for watershed scale adaptation.

  12. Performing Industrial Base Analyses. Volume 1: Methodology

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1995-08-01

    minimum essential industrial base that the Department must sustain. The assessment was to become part of the FY97 Program Review (PR-97). In turn... industrial base questions because the Navy Department is required to perform many of these industrial base assessments. This paper proposes a CNA...methodology for conducting industrial base studies. It is designed as an instructional document to guide analysts in capturing economic sources of

  13. Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios.

    PubMed

    Radeloff, V C; Nelson, E; Plantinga, A J; Lewis, D J; Helmers, D; Lawler, J J; Withey, J C; Beaudry, F; Martinuzzi, S; Butsic, V; Lonsdorf, E; White, D; Polasky, S

    2012-04-01

    Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate

  14. Performance optimization of free-space optical communication protocols based on results from FSO demonstrations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Epple, Bernhard

    2007-09-01

    The mobile free-space optical channel mainly suffers from relatively long link outages, produced by short-term blockings of the line-of-sight (obstacles, clouds), pointing- and tracking-errors or deep signal-fades caused by index of refraction turbulence effects. This paper discusses the applicability of commonly used communication protocols like UDP, TCP, ARQ and the SCPS-TP from the Space Communications Protocol Standards (SCPS) in various scenarios. The performance of the protocols in the selected scenarios is evaluated using the simulation software OMNeT++. The simulations are based on channel measurements from the three FSO demonstrations FASOLT (61 km Ground - Ground link), KIODO (LEO satellite downlink), and ATENAA (land-mobile link) and from ongoing measurements at the German Aerospace Center (DLR) (short-range Ground - Ground) as part of the MINERVAA project. Based on the simulation results, recommendations for protocols in free-space optical communication scenarios are given.

  15. Performance Based Education: A Social Alchemy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clements, Millard

    1982-01-01

    An exploration of performance-based education is focused through these questions: What image of human beings does it project? What image of professionals does it project? What purpose does it serve? What image of knowledge does it project? (CT)

  16. Performance Based Education: A Social Alchemy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clements, Millard

    1982-01-01

    An exploration of performance-based education is focused through these questions: What image of human beings does it project? What image of professionals does it project? What purpose does it serve? What image of knowledge does it project? (CT)

  17. Calculation of lifetime lung cancer risks associated with radon exposure, based on various models and exposure scenarios.

    PubMed

    Hunter, Nezahat; Muirhead, Colin R; Bochicchio, Francesco; Haylock, Richard G E

    2015-09-01

    The risk of lung cancer mortality up to 75 years of age due to radon exposure has been estimated for both male and female continuing, ex- and never-smokers, based on various radon risk models and exposure scenarios. We used risk models derived from (i) the BEIR VI analysis of cohorts of radon-exposed miners, (ii) cohort and nested case-control analyses of a European cohort of uranium miners and (iii) the joint analysis of European residential radon case-control studies. Estimates of the lifetime lung cancer risk due to radon varied between these models by just over a factor of 2 and risk estimates based on models from analyses of European uranium miners exposed at comparatively low rates and of people exposed to radon in homes were broadly compatible. For a given smoking category, there was not much difference in lifetime lung cancer risk between males and females. The estimated lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer for exposure to a concentration of 200 Bq m(-3) was in the range 2.98-6.55% for male continuing smokers and 0.19-0.42% for male never-smokers, depending on the model used and assuming a multiplicative relationship for the joint effect of radon and smoking. Stopping smoking at age 50 years decreases the lifetime risk due to radon by around a half relative to continuing smoking, but the risk for ex-smokers remains about a factor of 5-7 higher than that for never-smokers. Under a sub-multiplicative model for the joint effect of radon and smoking, the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer was still estimated to be substantially higher for continuing smokers than for never smokers. Radon mitigation-used to reduce radon concentrations at homes-can also have a substantial impact on lung cancer risk, even for persons in their 50 s; for each of continuing smokers, ex-smokers and never-smokers, radon mitigation at age 50 would lower the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer by about one-third. To maximise risk reductions, smokers in high

  18. A DYNAMIC PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED TOXICOKINETIC (DPBTK) MODEL FOR SIMULATION OF COMPLEX TOLUENE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS IN HUMANS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A GENERAL PHYSIOLOGICAL AND TOXICOKINETIC (GPAT) MODEL FOR SIMULATION OF COMPLEX TOLUENE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS IN HUMANS. E M Kenyon1, T Colemen2, C R Eklund1 and V A Benignus3. 1U.S. EPA, ORD, NHEERL, ETD, PKB, RTP, NC, USA; 2Biological Simulators, Inc., Jackson MS, USA, 3U.S. EP...

  19. So These Numbers Really Mean Something? A Role Playing Scenario-Based Approach to the Undergraduate Instrumental Analysis Laboratory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grannas, Amanda M.; Lagalante, Anthony F.

    2010-01-01

    A new curricular approach in our undergraduate second-year instrumental analysis laboratory was implemented. Students work collaboratively on scenarios in diverse fields including pharmaceuticals, forensics, gemology, art conservation, and environmental chemistry. Each laboratory section (approximately 12 students) is divided into three groups…

  20. A DYNAMIC PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED TOXICOKINETIC (DPBTK) MODEL FOR SIMULATION OF COMPLEX TOLUENE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS IN HUMANS</