Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro; Alexander, Nicholas A.; Kongko, Widjo; Muhari, Abdul

2017-12-01

This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan - including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal-vertical evacuation time maps - has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

Creating pedestrian crash scenarios in a driving simulator environment.

PubMed

Chrysler, Susan T; Ahmad, Omar; Schwarz, Chris W

2015-01-01

In 2012 in the United States, pedestrian injuries accounted for 3.3% of all traffic injuries but, disproportionately, pedestrian fatalities accounted for roughly 14% of traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2014 ). In many other countries, pedestrians make up more than 50% of those injured and killed in crashes. This research project examined driver response to crash-imminent situations involving pedestrians in a high-fidelity, full-motion driving simulator. This article presents a scenario development method and discusses experimental design and control issues in conducting pedestrian crash research in a simulation environment. Driving simulators offer a safe environment in which to test driver response and offer the advantage of having virtual pedestrian models that move realistically, unlike test track studies, which by nature must use pedestrian dummies on some moving track. An analysis of pedestrian crash trajectories, speeds, roadside features, and pedestrian behavior was used to create 18 unique crash scenarios representative of the most frequent and most costly crash types. For the study reported here, we only considered scenarios where the car is traveling straight because these represent the majority of fatalities. We manipulated driver expectation of a pedestrian both by presenting intersection and mid-block crossing as well as by using features in the scene to direct the driver's visual attention toward or away from the crossing pedestrian. Three visual environments for the scenarios were used to provide a variety of roadside environments and speed: a 20-30 mph residential area, a 55 mph rural undivided highway, and a 40 mph urban area. Many variables of crash situations were considered in selecting and developing the scenarios, including vehicle and pedestrian movements; roadway and roadside features; environmental conditions; and characteristics of the pedestrian, driver, and vehicle. The driving simulator scenarios were subjected to iterative testing to adjust time to arrival triggers for the pedestrian actions. This article discusses the rationale behind creating the simulator scenarios and some of the procedural considerations for conducting this type of research. Crash analyses can be used to construct test scenarios for driver behavior evaluations using driving simulators. By considering trajectories, roadway, and environmental conditions of real-world crashes, representative virtual scenarios can serve as safe test beds for advanced driver assistance systems. The results of such research can be used to inform pedestrian crash avoidance/mitigation systems by identifying driver error, driver response time, and driver response choice (i.e., steering vs. braking).

The potential impacts of electric vehicles on air quality in the urban areas of Barcelona and Madrid (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soret, A.; Guevara, M.; Baldasano, J. M.

2014-12-01

This work analyses the potential air quality improvements resulting from three fleet electrification scenarios (∼13, 26 and 40%) by replacing conventional vehicles with Electric Battery Vehicles (EBVs), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) and Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). This study has been performed for the cities of Barcelona and Madrid (Spain), where road transport is the primary emission source. In these urban areas, several air quality problems are present, mainly related to NO2 and particulate matter. The WRF-ARW/HERMESv2/CMAQ model system has been applied at high spatial (1 × 1 km2) and temporal (1 h) resolution. The results show that fleet electrification offers a potential for emission abatement, especially related to NOx and CO. Regarding the more ambitious scenario (∼40% fleet electrification), reductions of 11% and 17% of the total NOx emissions are observed in Barcelona and Madrid respectively. These emissions reductions involve air quality improvements in NO2 maximum hourly values up to 16%: reductions up to 30 and 35 μg m-3 in Barcelona and Madrid, respectively. Furthermore, an additional scenario has been defined considering electric generation emissions associated with EBVs and PHEVs charging from a combined-cycle power plant. These charging emissions would produce slight NO2 increases in the downwind areas of <3 μg m-3. Thus, fleet electrification would improve urban air quality even when considering emissions associated with charging electric vehicles. However, two further points should be considered. First, fleet electrification cannot be considered a unique solution, and other management strategies may be defined. This is especially important with respect to particulate matter emissions, which are not significantly reduced by fleet electrification (<5%) due to the high weight of non-exhaust emissions. Second, a significant introduction of electric vehicles (26-40%) involving all vehicle categories is required to improve urban air quality.

Modeling fire behavior on tropical islands with high-resolution weather data

Treesearch

John W. Benoit; Francis M. Fujioka; David R. Weise

2009-01-01

In this study, we consider fire behavior simulation in tropical island scenarios such as Hawaii and Puerto Rico. The development of a system to provide real-time fire behavior prediction in Hawaii is discussed. This involves obtaining fuels and topography information at a fine scale, as well as supplying daily high-resolution weather forecast data for the area of...

Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Ward-Garrison, D. Christian; Risley, John C.; Battaglin, William A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Chase, Katherine J.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Dudley, Robert W.; Hunt, Randall J.; Koczot, Kathryn M.; Mastin, Mark C.; Regan, R. Steven; Viger, Roland J.; Vining, Kevin C.; Walker, John F.

2012-01-01

A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

2013-01-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dandini, Vincent John; Duran, Felicia Angelica; Wyss, Gregory Dane

2003-09-01

This article describes how features of event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology, with some of the best features of each. The resultant object-based event scenario tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible. Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST methodology is then applied to anmore » aviation safety problem that considers mechanisms by which an aircraft might become involved in a runway incursion incident. The resulting OBEST model demonstrates how a close link between human reliability analysis and probabilistic risk assessment methods can provide important insights into aviation safety phenomenology.« less

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

1995-12-31

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example.more » The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.« less

Greenhouse gas scenario sensitivity and uncertainties in precipitation projections for central Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Uytven, E.; Willems, P.

2018-03-01

Climate change impact assessment on meteorological variables involves large uncertainties as a result of incomplete knowledge on the future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate model physics, next to the inherent internal variability of the climate system. Given that the alteration in greenhouse gas concentrations is the driver for the change, one expects the impacts to be highly dependent on the considered greenhouse gas scenario (GHS). In this study, we denote this behavior as GHS sensitivity. Due to the climate model related uncertainties, this sensitivity is, at local scale, not always that strong as expected. This paper aims to study the GHS sensitivity and its contributing role to climate scenarios for a case study in Belgium. An ensemble of 160 CMIP5 climate model runs is considered and climate change signals are studied for precipitation accumulation, daily precipitation intensities and wet day frequencies. This was done for the different seasons of the year and the scenario periods 2011-2040, 2031-2060, 2051-2081 and 2071-2100. By means of variance decomposition, the total variance in the climate change signals was separated in the contribution of the differences in GHSs and the other model-related uncertainty sources. These contributions were found dependent on the variable and season. Following the time of emergence concept, the GHS uncertainty contribution is found dependent on the time horizon and increases over time. For the most distinct time horizon (2071-2100), the climate model uncertainty accounts for the largest uncertainty contribution. The GHS differences explain up to 18% of the total variance in the climate change signals. The results point further at the importance of the climate model ensemble design, specifically the ensemble size and the combination of climate models, whereupon climate scenarios are based. The numerical noise, introduced at scales smaller than the skillful scale, e.g. at local scale, was not considered in this study.

It is the outcome that counts! Damage to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex disrupts the integration of outcome and belief information for moral judgment.

PubMed

Ciaramelli, Elisa; Braghittoni, Davide; di Pellegrino, Giuseppe

2012-11-01

Moral judgment involves considering not only the outcome of an action but also the intention with which it was pursued. Previous functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) research has shown that integrating outcome and belief information for moral judgment relies on a brain network including temporo-parietal, precuneus, and medial prefrontal regions. Here, we investigated whether the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) plays a crucial role in this process. Patients with lesions in vmPFC (vmPFC patients), and brain-damaged and healthy controls considered scenarios in which the protagonist caused intentional harm (negative-outcome, negative-belief), accidental harm (negative-outcome, neutral-belief), attempted harm (neutral-outcome, negative-belief), or no harm (neutral-outcome, neutral-belief), and rated the moral permissibility of the protagonists' behavior. All groups responded similarly to scenarios involving intentional harm and no harm. vmPFC patients, however, judged attempted harm as more permissible, and accidental harm as less permissible, than the control groups. For vmPFC patients, outcome information, rather than belief information, shaped moral judgment. The results indicate that vmPFC is necessary for integrating outcome and belief information during moral reasoning. During moral judgment vmPFC may mediate intentions' understanding, and overriding of prepotent responses to salient outcomes.

Using modeling tools for implementing feasible land use and nature conservation governance systems in small islands - The Pico Island (Azores) case-study.

PubMed

Fernandes, J P; Freire, M; Guiomar, N; Gil, A

2017-03-15

The present study deals with the development of systematic conservation planning as management instrument in small oceanic islands, ensuring open systems of governance, and able to integrate an informed and involved participation of the stakeholders. Marxan software was used to define management areas according a set of alternative land use scenarios considering different conservation and management paradigms. Modeled conservation zones were interpreted and compared with the existing protected areas allowing more fused information for future trade-outs and stakeholder's involvement. The results, allowing the identification of Target Management Units (TMU) based on the consideration of different development scenarios proved to be consistent with a feasible development of evaluation approaches able to support sound governance systems. Moreover, the detailed geographic identification of TMU seems to be able to support participated policies towards a more sustainable management of the entire island. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analytical solutions for benchmarking cold regions subsurface water flow and energy transport models: one-dimensional soil thaw with conduction and advection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kurylyk, Barret L.; McKenzie, Jeffrey M; MacQuarrie, Kerry T. B.; Voss, Clifford I.

2014-01-01

Numerous cold regions water flow and energy transport models have emerged in recent years. Dissimilarities often exist in their mathematical formulations and/or numerical solution techniques, but few analytical solutions exist for benchmarking flow and energy transport models that include pore water phase change. This paper presents a detailed derivation of the Lunardini solution, an approximate analytical solution for predicting soil thawing subject to conduction, advection, and phase change. Fifteen thawing scenarios are examined by considering differences in porosity, surface temperature, Darcy velocity, and initial temperature. The accuracy of the Lunardini solution is shown to be proportional to the Stefan number. The analytical solution results obtained for soil thawing scenarios with water flow and advection are compared to those obtained from the finite element model SUTRA. Three problems, two involving the Lunardini solution and one involving the classic Neumann solution, are recommended as standard benchmarks for future model development and testing.

Gravitational decoupling and the Picard-Lefschetz approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Jon; Cole, Alex; Shiu, Gary; Cottrell, William

2018-01-01

In this work, we consider tunneling between nonmetastable states in gravitational theories. Such processes arise in various contexts, e.g., in inflationary scenarios where the inflaton potential involves multiple fields or multiple branches. They are also relevant for bubble wall nucleation in some cosmological settings. However, we show that the transition amplitudes computed using the Euclidean method generally do not approach the corresponding field theory limit as Mp→∞ . This implies that in the Euclidean framework, there is no systematic expansion in powers of GN for such processes. Such considerations also carry over directly to no-boundary scenarios involving Hawking-Turok instantons. In this note, we illustrate this failure of decoupling in the Euclidean approach with a simple model of axion monodromy and then argue that the situation can be remedied with a Lorentzian prescription such as the Picard-Lefschetz theory. As a proof of concept, we illustrate with a simple model how tunneling transition amplitudes can be calculated using the Picard-Lefschetz approach.

Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, J. F.

2016-12-01

Significant Arctic environmental and socio-economic change has been observed on the North Slope of Alaska, presenting challenges for resident communities and management agencies that need to adapt to future changes that are difficult to model or predict. Continued climate change coupled with new or modified energy development could substantially alter the landscape and ecosystem in the future. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) recognized the value of using a participatory scenarios process to consider plausible future energy and resource development scenarios through the year 2040 to help identify and prioritize research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The scenarios process engaged diverse stakeholders, including subject matter experts and local knowledge holders. Through identification and ranking of key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the focus of the study, a series of spatially explicit scenarios was developed, analyzed in terms of low, medium and high development activities. Climate change and economic factors were key drivers affecting plausible energy development scenarios. The implications from each of the scenarios were then used to identify important research and monitoring activities and their relevant spatial scales. The scenarios project identified over 40 research and monitoring needs. The top five research needs addressed data gaps and key concerns related to how the scenarios could affect: hunting and trapping on land, health and community well-being, permafrost and hydrology, marine mammal subsistence and potential marine oil spills. The use of a participatory scenarios process was essential for identifying a range of plausible energy and resource development scenarios using a framework that involved a systematic assessment of complex interacting drivers of change, consideration of key uncertainties, and transparency throughout the project.

Low-scale seesaw and the CP violation in neutrino oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penedo, J. T.; Petcov, S. T.; Yanagida, Tsutomu T.

2018-04-01

We consider a version of the low-scale type I seesaw mechanism for generating small neutrino masses, as an alternative to the standard seesaw scenario. It involves two right-handed (RH) neutrinos ν1R and ν2R having a Majorana mass term with mass M, which conserves the lepton charge L. The RH neutrino ν2R has lepton-charge conserving Yukawa couplings gℓ2 to the lepton and Higgs doublet fields, while small lepton-charge breaking effects are assumed to induce tiny lepton-charge violating Yukawa couplings gℓ1 for ν1R, l = e , μ , τ. In this approach the smallness of neutrino masses is related to the smallness of the Yukawa coupling of ν1R and not to the large value of M: the RH neutrinos can have masses in the few GeV to a few TeV range. The Yukawa couplings |gℓ2 | can be much larger than |gℓ1 |, of the order |gℓ2 | ∼10-4-10-2, leading to interesting low-energy phenomenology. We consider a specific realisation of this scenario within the Froggatt-Nielsen approach to fermion masses. In this model the Dirac CP violation phase δ is predicted to have approximately one of the values δ ≃ π / 4 , 3 π / 4, or 5 π / 4 , 7 π / 4, or to lie in a narrow interval around one of these values. The low-energy phenomenology of the considered low-scale seesaw scenario of neutrino mass generation is also briefly discussed.

Information basis for developing comprehensive waste management system-US-Japan joint nuclear energy action plan waste management working group phase I report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nutt, M.; Nuclear Engineering Division

2010-05-25

The activity of Phase I of the Waste Management Working Group under the United States - Japan Joint Nuclear Energy Action Plan started in 2007. The US-Japan JNEAP is a bilateral collaborative framework to support the global implementation of safe, secure, and sustainable, nuclear fuel cycles (referred to in this document as fuel cycles). The Waste Management Working Group was established by strong interest of both parties, which arise from the recognition that development and optimization of waste management and disposal system(s) are central issues of the present and future nuclear fuel cycles. This report summarizes the activity of themore » Waste Management Working Group that focused on consolidation of the existing technical basis between the U.S. and Japan and the joint development of a plan for future collaborative activities. Firstly, the political/regulatory frameworks related to nuclear fuel cycles in both countries were reviewed. The various advanced fuel cycle scenarios that have been considered in both countries were then surveyed and summarized. The working group established the working reference scenario for the future cooperative activity that corresponds to a fuel cycle scenario being considered both in Japan and the U.S. This working scenario involves transitioning from a once-through fuel cycle utilizing light water reactors to a one-pass uranium-plutonium fuel recycle in light water reactors to a combination of light water reactors and fast reactors with plutonium, uranium, and minor actinide recycle, ultimately concluding with multiple recycle passes primarily using fast reactors. Considering the scenario, current and future expected waste streams, treatment and inventory were discussed, and the relevant information was summarized. Second, the waste management/disposal system optimization was discussed. Repository system concepts were reviewed, repository design concepts for the various classifications of nuclear waste were summarized, and the factors to consider in repository design and optimization were then discussed. Japan is considering various alternatives and options for the geologic disposal facility and the framework for future analysis of repository concepts was discussed. Regarding the advanced waste and storage form development, waste form technologies developed in both countries were surveyed and compared. Potential collaboration areas and activities were next identified. Disposal system optimization processes and techniques were reviewed, and factors to consider in future repository design optimization activities were also discussed. Then the potential collaboration areas and activities related to the optimization problem were extracted.« less

Inadvertent Intruder Analysis For The Portsmouth On-Site Waste Disposal Facility (OSWDF)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Frank G.; Phifer, Mark A.

2014-01-22

The inadvertent intruder analysis considers the radiological impacts to hypothetical persons who are assumed to inadvertently intrude on the Portsmouth OSWDF site after institutional control ceases 100 years after site closure. For the purposes of this analysis, we assume that the waste disposal in the OSWDF occurs at time zero, the site is under institutional control for the next 100 years, and inadvertent intrusion can occur over the following 1,000 year time period. Disposal of low-level radioactive waste in the OSWDF must meet a requirement to assess impacts on such individuals, and demonstrate that the effective dose equivalent to anmore » intruder would not likely exceed 100 mrem per year for scenarios involving continuous exposure (i.e. chronic) or 500 mrem for scenarios involving a single acute exposure. The focus in development of exposure scenarios for inadvertent intruders was on selecting reasonable events that may occur, giving consideration to regional customs and construction practices. An important assumption in all scenarios is that an intruder has no prior knowledge of the existence of a waste disposal facility at the site. Results of the analysis show that a hypothetical inadvertent intruder at the OSWDF who, in the worst case scenario, resides on the site and consumes vegetables from a garden established on the site using contaminated soil (chronic agriculture scenario) would receive a maximum chronic dose of approximately 7.0 mrem/yr during the 1000 year period of assessment. This dose falls well below the DOE chronic dose limit of 100 mrem/yr. Results of the analysis also showed that a hypothetical inadvertent intruder at the OSWDF who, in the worst case scenario, excavates a basement in the soil that reaches the waste (acute basement construction scenario) would receive a maximum acute dose of approximately 0.25 mrem/yr during the 1000 year period of assessment. This dose falls well below the DOE acute dose limit of 500 mrem/yr. Disposal inventory constraints based on the intruder analysis are well above conservative estimates of the OSWDF inventory and, based on intruder disposal limits; about 7% of the disposal capacity is reached with the estimated OSWDF inventory.« less

Landscape ecological assessment: a tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning.

PubMed

Mörtberg, U M; Balfors, B; Knol, W C

2007-03-01

To achieve a sustainable development, impacts on biodiversity of urbanisation, new infrastructure projects and other land use changes must be considered on landscape and regional scales. This requires that important decisions are made after a systematic evaluation of environmental impacts. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptual framework for the assessment of consequences of long-term development processes like urbanisation on biodiversity components, and for evaluating and visualising the impacts of alternative planning scenarios. The aim of this paper was to develop methods for integrating biodiversity issues in planning and strategic environmental assessment in an urbanising environment, on landscape and regional levels. In order to test developed methods, a case study was conducted in the region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, and the study area embraced the city centre, suburbs and peri-urban areas. Focal species were tested as indicators of habitat quality, quantity and connectivity in the landscape. Predictive modelling of habitat distribution in geographic information systems involved the modelling of focal species occurrences based on empirical data, incorporated in a landscape ecological decision support system. When habitat models were retrieved, they were applied on future planning scenarios in order to predict and assess the impacts on focal species. The scenario involving a diffuse exploitation pattern had the greatest negative impacts on the habitat networks of focal species. The scenarios with concentrated exploitation also had negative impacts, although they were possible to mitigate quite easily. The predictions of the impacts on habitats networks of focal species made it possible to quantify, integrate and visualise the effects of urbanisation scenarios on aspects of biodiversity on a landscape level.

Estimated effects on water quality of Lake Houston from interbasin transfer of water from the Trinity River, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liscum, Fred; East, Jeffery W.

2000-01-01

The City of Houston is considering the transfer of water from the Trinity River to Lake Houston (on the San Jacinto River) to alleviate concerns about adequate water supplies for future water demands. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Houston, conducted a study to estimate the effects on the water quality of Lake Houston from the transfer of Trinity River water. A water-quality model, CE–QUAL–W2, was used to simulate six water-quality properties and constituents for scenarios of interbasin transfer of Trinity River water. Three scenarios involved the transferred Trinity River water augmenting streamflow in the East Fork of Lake Houston, and three scenarios involved the transferred water replacing streamflow from the West Fork of the San Jacinto River.The estimated effects on Lake Houston were determined by comparing volume-weighted daily mean water temperature, phosphorus, ammonia nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, algal biomass, and dissolved oxygen simulated for each of the transfer scenarios to simulations for a base dataset. The effects of the interbasin transfer on Lake Houston do not appear to be detrimental to water temperature, ammonia nitrogen, or dissolved oxygen. Phosphorus and nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen showed fairly large changes when Trinity River water was transferred to replace West Fork San Jacinto River streamflow. Algal biomass showed large decreases when Trinity River water was transferred to augment East Fork Lake Houston streamflow and large increases when Trinity River water was transferred to replace West Fork San Jacinto River streamflow. Regardless of the scenario simulated, the model indicated that light was the limiting factor for algal biomass growth.

Method for the technical, financial, economic and environmental pre-feasibility study of geothermal power plants by RETScreen - Ecuador's case study.

PubMed

Moya, Diego; Paredes, Juan; Kaparaju, Prasad

2018-01-01

RETScreen presents a proven focused methodology on pre-feasibility studies. Although this tool has been used to carry out a number of pre-feasibility studies of solar, wind, and hydropower projects; that is not the case for geothermal developments. This method paper proposes a systematic methodology to cover all the necessary inputs of the RETScreen-International Geothermal Project Model. As case study, geothermal power plant developments in the Ecuadorian context were analysed by RETScreen-International Geothermal Project Model. Three different scenarios were considered for analyses. Scenario I and II considered incentives of 132.1 USD/MWh for electricity generation and grants of 3 million USD. Scenario III considered the geothermal project with an electricity export price of 49.3 USD/MWh. Scenario III was further divided into IIIA and IIIB case studies. Scenario IIIA considered a 3 million USD grant while Scenario IIIB considered an income of 8.9 USD/MWh for selling heat in direct applications. Modelling results showed that binary power cycle was the most suitable geothermal technology to produce electricity along with aquaculture and greenhouse heating for direct use applications in all scenarios. Financial analyses showed that the debt payment would be 5.36 million USD/year under in Scenario I and III. The correspindig values for Scenario II was 7.06 million USD/year. Net Present Value was positive for all studied scenarios except for Scenario IIIA. Overall, Scenario II was identified as the most feasible project due to positive NPV with short payback period. Scenario IIIB could become financially attractive by selling heat for direct applications. The total initial investment for a 22 MW geothermal power plant was 114.3 million USD (at 2017 costs). Economic analysis showed an annual savings of 24.3 million USD by avoiding fossil fuel electricity generation. More than 184,000 tCO 2 eq. could be avoided annually.

Reasoning with alternative explanations in physics: The cognitive accessibility rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heckler, Andrew F.; Bogdan, Abigail M.

2018-06-01

A critical component of scientific reasoning is the consideration of alternative explanations. Recognizing that decades of cognitive psychology research have demonstrated that relative cognitive accessibility, or "what comes to mind," strongly affects how people reason in a given context, we articulate a simple "cognitive accessibility rule", namely that alternative explanations are considered less frequently when an explanation with relatively high accessibility is offered first. In a series of four experiments, we test the cognitive accessibility rule in the context of consideration of alternative explanations for six physical scenarios commonly found in introductory physics curricula. First, we administer free recall and recognition tasks to operationally establish and distinguish between the relative accessibility and availability of common explanations for the physical scenarios. Then, we offer either high or low accessibility explanations for the physical scenarios and determine the extent to which students consider alternatives to the given explanations. We find two main results consistent across algebra- and calculus-based university level introductory physics students for multiple answer formats. First, we find evidence that, at least for some contexts, most explanatory factors are cognitively available to students but not cognitively accessible. Second, we empirically verify the cognitive accessibility rule and demonstrate that the rule is strongly predictive, accounting for up to 70% of the variance of the average student consideration of alternative explanations across scenarios. Overall, we find that cognitive accessibility can help to explain biases in the consideration of alternatives in reasoning about simple physical scenarios, and these findings lend support to the growing number of science education studies demonstrating that tasks relevant to science education curricula often involve rapid, automatic, and potentially predictable processes and outcomes.

Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

PubMed

Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

2013-12-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Adverse fetal outcome in road accidents: Injury mechanism study and injury criteria development in a pregnant woman finite element model.

PubMed

Auriault, F; Thollon, L; Pérès, J; Behr, M

2016-12-01

This study documents the development of adverse fetal outcome predictors dedicated to the analysis of road accidents involving pregnant women. To do so, a pre-existing whole body finite element model representative of a 50th percentile 26 weeks pregnant woman was used. A total of 8 accident scenarios were simulated with the model positioned on a sled. Each of these scenarios was associated to a risk of adverse fetal outcome based on results from real car crash investigations involving pregnant women from the literature. The use of airbags and accidents involving unbelted occupants were not considered in this study. Several adverse fetal outcome potential predictors were then evaluated with regard to their correlation to this risk of fetal injuries. Three predictors appeared strongly correlated to the risk of adverse fetal outcome: (1) the intra uterine pressure at the placenta fetal side area (r=0.92), (2) the fetal head acceleration (HIC) (r=0.99) and (3) area of utero-placental interface over a strain threshold (r=0.90). Finally, sensitivity analysis against slight variations of the simulation parameters was performed and assess robustness of these criteria. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using public health scenarios to predict the utility of a national syndromic surveillance programme during the 2012 London Olympic and Paralympic Games.

PubMed

Morbey, R A; Elliot, A J; Charlett, A; Ibbotson, S; Verlander, N Q; Leach, S; Hall, I; Barrass, I; Catchpole, M; McCloskey, B; Said, B; Walsh, A; Pebody, R; Smith, G E

2014-05-01

During 2012 real-time syndromic surveillance formed a key part of the daily public health surveillance for the London Olympic and Paralympic Games. It was vital that these systems were evaluated prior to the Games; in particular what types and scales of incidents could and could not be detected. Different public health scenarios were created covering a range of potential incidents that the Health Protection Agency would require syndromic surveillance to rapidly detect and monitor. For the scenarios considered it is now possible to determine what is likely to be detectable and how incidents are likely to present using the different syndromic systems. Small localized incidents involving food poisoning are most likely to be detected the next day via emergency department surveillance, while a new strain of influenza is more likely to be detected via GP or telephone helpline surveillance, several weeks after the first seed case is introduced.

Variations in the fine-structure constant constraining gravity theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bezerra, V. B.; Cunha, M. S.; Muniz, C. R.; Tahim, M. O.; Vieira, H. S.

2016-08-01

In this paper, we investigate how the fine-structure constant, α, locally varies in the presence of a static and spherically symmetric gravitational source. The procedure consists in calculating the solution and the energy eigenvalues of a massive scalar field around that source, considering the weak-field regime. From this result, we obtain expressions for a spatially variable fine-structure constant by considering suitable modifications in the involved parameters admitting some scenarios of semi-classical and quantum gravities. Constraints on free parameters of the approached theories are calculated from astrophysical observations of the emission spectra of a white dwarf. Such constraints are finally compared with those obtained in the literature.

Control of Flexible Systems in the Presence of Failures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Magahami, Peiman G.; Cox, David E.; Bauer, Frank H. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Control of flexible systems under degradation or failure of sensors/actuators is considered. A Linear Matrix Inequality framework is used to synthesize H(sub infinity)-based controllers, which provide good disturbance rejection while capable of tolerating real parameter uncertainties in the system model, as well as potential degradation or failure of the control system hardware. In this approach, a one-at-a-time failure scenario is considered, wherein no more than one sensor or actuator is allowed to fail at any given time. A numerical example involving control synthesis for a two-dimensional flexible system is presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach.

A Communications Guide for Sustainable Development: How Interested Parties Become Partners, 2nd Edition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fowler, Kimberly M.; Hund, Gretchen; Engel-Cox, Jill A.

2016-03-06

The 2nd edition is an updated version plus an e-book. This book was developed to assist organizations in designing and managing their communication and stakeholder involvement programs. The guidebook describes a step-by-step approach, provides case studies, and presents tools to consider. The book uses a scenario approach to outline changes an organization may confront, and provides a menu of communication and engagement activities that support organizational decision making.

Nuclear Astrophysics At ISAC With DRAGON

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D'Auria, John M.

2005-05-24

The unique DRAGON (recoil mass separator) facility is now available to provide measurements of radiative capture reactions involving short-lived exotic reactants which are considered important in explosive stellar scenarios such as novae and X-ray bursts. A description of the first study completed, the 1H(21Na,22Mg){gamma} reaction, will be summarized and updated. In addition, the planned program for DRAGON will be presented along with a summary of the upgrade of the ISAC Radioactive Beams laboratory.

SAFRR AND Physics-Based Scenarios: The Power of Scientifically Credible Stories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.

2015-12-01

USGS's SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project and its predecessor, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project, uses the latest earth science to develop scenarios so that communities can improve disaster resilience. SAFRR has created detailed physics-based natural-disaster scenarios of a M7.8 San Andreas earthquake in southern California (ShakeOut), atmospheric-river storms rivaling the Great California Flood of 1862 (ARkStorm), a Tohoku-sized earthquake and tsunami in the eastern Aleutians (SAFRR Tsunami), and now a M7.05 quake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay area (HayWired), as novel ways of providing science for decision making. Each scenario is scientifically plausible, deterministic, and large enough to demand attention but not too large to be believable. The scenarios address interacting hazards, requiring involvement of multiple science disciplines and user communities. The scenarios routinely expose hitherto unknown or ignored vulnerabilities, most often in cascading effects missed when impacts are considered in isolation. They take advantage of story telling to provide decision makers with clear explanations and justifications for mitigation and preparedness actions, and have been used for national-to-local disaster response exercises and planning. Effectiveness is further leveraged by downscaling the scenarios to local levels. For example, although the ARkStorm scenario describes state-scale events and has been used that way by NASA and the Navy, SAFRR also partnered with FEMA to focus on two local areas, Ventura County in the coastal plain and the mountain setting of Lake Tahoe with downstream impacts in Reno, Sparks and Carson City. Downscaling and focused analyses increased usefulness to user communities, drawing new participants into the study. SAFRR scenarios have also motivated new research to answer questions uncovered by stakeholders, closing the circle of co-evolving disaster-science and disaster-response improvements.

The extremely truncated circumstellar disc of V410 X-ray 1: a precursor to TRAPPIST-1?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boneberg, D. M.; Facchini, S.; Clarke, C. J.; Ilee, J. D.; Booth, R. A.; Bruderer, S.

2018-06-01

Protoplanetary discs around brown dwarfs and very low mass (VLM) stars offer some of the best prospects for forming Earth-sized planets in their habitable zones. To this end, we study the nature of the disc around the VLM star V410 X-ray 1, whose spectral energy distribution (SED) is indicative of an optically thick and very truncated dust disc, with our modelling suggesting an outer radius of only 0.6 au. We investigate two scenarios that could lead to such a truncation, and find that the observed SED is compatible with both. The first scenario involves the truncation of both the dust and gas in the disc, perhaps due to a previous dynamical interaction or the presence of an undetected companion. The second scenario involves the fact that a radial location of 0.6 au is close to the expected location of the H2O snowline in the disc. As such, a combination of efficient dust growth, radial migration, and subsequent fragmentation within the snowline leads to an optically thick inner dust disc and larger, optically thin outer dust disc. We find that a firm measurement of the CO J = 2-1 line flux would enable us to distinguish between these two scenarios, by enabling a measurement of the radial extent of gas in the disc. Many models we consider contain at least several Earth-masses of dust interior to 0.6 au, suggesting that V410 X-ray 1 could be a precursor to a system with tightly packed inner planets, such as TRAPPIST-1.

Missed opportunities?: an evaluation of potentially preventable poisoning deaths.

PubMed

Srisuma, Sahaphume; Cao, Dazhe; Kleinschmidt, Kurt; Heffner, Alan C; Lavonas, Eric J

2016-06-01

Although most poisoning deaths are not preventable with current medical technology, in some cases different management decisions may have prevented fatal outcomes. This study aims to review reported poisoning-related deaths for preventability to provide insight to improve future care. Fatality abstracts published in the US National Poison Data System (NPDS) Annual Reports (2008-2012) were analyzed. Preventability was graded using a Likert scale of 1 (definitely non-preventable) to 6 (definitely preventable). Two medical toxicologists screened all cases. Cases deemed definitely not preventable (score 1) by both reviewers were excluded from further review and considered to be "non-preventable". All cases considered at least possibly preventable by either screener were reviewed by a multidisciplinary panel of 5 physicians for preventability scoring. Differences were resolved by consensus. Cases determined to be "preventable" (scores 4-6) were characterized by type of improvement issue involved (diagnosis, treatment, monitoring, other) and recurring scenarios. Of 390 published abstracts, 78 (20.0%) deaths were considered at least possibly preventable by at least one screener. Of these, 34 (8.7%) deaths were determined to be "preventable" by the panel. Inter-observer agreement by weighted kappa analysis was 0.58 for screening, 0.24 for preventability, and 0.44 for specific aspects of care. The most common toxicants were salicylates (n = 9), opioids (n = 4), toxic alcohols (n = 3), fluoride containing product (n = 3), and bupropion (n = 3). The most common improvement opportunities involved treatment and monitoring. Most of the ingested substances in preventable deaths have delayed GI absorption or require metabolic activation to produce a delayed effect (such as salicylates, opioids, and toxic alcohols), and therefore provide an opportunity for early recognition and successful interventions. Most improvement opportunities are clearly described in the literature but may be not recognized. Based on an analysis of published NPDS data, a considerable number of poisoning-related deaths reaching medical attention may be preventable. The most common scenarios involved in potentially preventable poisoning fatalities related to monitoring and treatment. Salicylates and opioids were the most common agents involved in preventable deaths.

Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation by passive fire protection.

PubMed

Paltrinieri, Nicola; Landucci, Gabriele; Molag, Menso; Bonvicini, Sarah; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2009-08-15

The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protections was investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements model. The results of mathematical simulations of real scale fire engulfment scenarios that may follow accidents involving LPG tankers proved the effectiveness of the thermal protections in preventing the "fired" BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion) scenario. The presence of a thermal coating greatly increases the "time to failure", providing a time lapse that in the European experience may be considered sufficient to allow the start of effective mitigation actions by fire brigades. The results obtained were used to calculate the expected reduction of individual and societal risk due to LPG transportation in real case scenarios. The analysis confirmed that the introduction of passive fire protections turns out in a significant reduction of risk, up to an order of magnitude in the case of individual risk and of about 50% if the expectation value is considered. Thus, the adoption of passive fire protections, not compulsory in European regulations, may be an effective technical measure for risk reduction, and may contribute to achieve the control of "major accidents hazards" cited by the European legislation.

Information prioritization for control and automation of space operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Asock; Joshi, Suresh M.; Whitney, Cynthia K.; Jow, Hong N.

1987-01-01

The applicability of a real-time information prioritization technique to the development of a decision support system for control and automation of Space Station operations is considered. The steps involved in the technique are described, including the definition of abnormal scenarios and of attributes, measures of individual attributes, formulation and optimization of a cost function, simulation of test cases on the basis of the cost function, and examination of the simulation scenerios. A list is given comparing the intrinsic importances of various Space Station information data.

Watershed-scale response to climate change through the twenty-first century for selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven; Ward-Garrison, Christian D.

2011-01-01

The hydrologic response of different climate-change emission scenarios for the twenty-first century were evaluated in 14 basins from different hydroclimatic regions across the United States using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a process-based, distributed-parameter watershed model. This study involves four major steps: 1) setup and calibration of the PRMS model in 14 basins across the United States by local U.S. Geological Survey personnel; 2) statistical downscaling of the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 climate-change emission scenarios to create PRMS input files that reflect these emission scenarios; 3) run PRMS for the climate-change emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and 4) evaluation of the PRMS output.This paper presents an overview of this project, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be very different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the climate emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations. This paper concludes with a discussion of the lessons learned and potential for future work.

Faulty perceptions? The impact of binge drinking history on college women's perceived rape resistance efficacy.

PubMed

McCauley, Jenna L; Calhoun, Karen S

2008-12-01

College women who binge drink are at greater risk than their peers for experiencing an alcohol-involved rape. Evidence suggests that these women commonly underestimate their risk for assault. This study examines college women's perceptions of their rape resistance efficacy in two acquaintance rape scenarios (one involving the woman's alcohol consumption and one not) as a function of their binge drinking and alcohol-involved rape history. Alcohol-involved rape was inversely associated only with efficacy in situations involving alcohol. Binge drinking was differentially predictive of efficacy in the two scenarios, with regular binge drinkers being significantly more likely to have high perceived efficacy in rape scenarios in which they were drinking and significantly less likely than their peers to have high perceived efficacy in rape scenarios in which they weren't drinking. Findings have direct implications for both college drinking and rape risk reduction interventions, highlighting the need to address women's minimization of alcohol's impact on their rape resistance ability.

Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lauber, T. Bruce; Stedman, Richard C.; Connelly, Nancy A; Rudstam, Lars G.; Ready, Richard C; Poe, Gregory L; Bunnell, David B.; Hook, Tomas O.; Koops, Marten A.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Rutherford, Edward S; Wittmann, Marion E.

2016-01-01

The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

Horizon scanning for emergence of new viruses: from constructing complex scenarios to online games.

PubMed

Gale, P; Breed, A C

2013-10-01

Horizon scanning techniques can be developed to identify novel routes and sources for the emergence of viruses in the medium to long term. Central to horizon scanning is prediction of the complex scenarios through which viruses could emerge before they occur. One approach involves 'spidergrams' in which complex scenarios are generated by combining factors randomly selected from different categories of events. Spidergrams provide a framework for how different factors could interact, irrespective of the virus, and also enable testing of combinations not previously considered but which would be 'tested' in nature by a virus. The emergence of viruses through new routes is often related to changes, for example, in environmental and social factors, and the Internet will undoubtedly be used to identify long-term trends for consideration. In addition, online games may provide horizon scanners with suggestions for new routes and strategies that could be used by emerging viruses. © 2012 Crown copyright Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office and Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency.

Setting conservation management thresholds using a novel participatory modeling approach.

PubMed

Addison, P F E; de Bie, K; Rumpff, L

2015-10-01

We devised a participatory modeling approach for setting management thresholds that show when management intervention is required to address undesirable ecosystem changes. This approach was designed to be used when management thresholds: must be set for environmental indicators in the face of multiple competing objectives; need to incorporate scientific understanding and value judgments; and will be set by participants with limited modeling experience. We applied our approach to a case study where management thresholds were set for a mat-forming brown alga, Hormosira banksii, in a protected area management context. Participants, including management staff and scientists, were involved in a workshop to test the approach, and set management thresholds to address the threat of trampling by visitors to an intertidal rocky reef. The approach involved trading off the environmental objective, to maintain the condition of intertidal reef communities, with social and economic objectives to ensure management intervention was cost-effective. Ecological scenarios, developed using scenario planning, were a key feature that provided the foundation for where to set management thresholds. The scenarios developed represented declines in percent cover of H. banksii that may occur under increased threatening processes. Participants defined 4 discrete management alternatives to address the threat of trampling and estimated the effect of these alternatives on the objectives under each ecological scenario. A weighted additive model was used to aggregate participants' consequence estimates. Model outputs (decision scores) clearly expressed uncertainty, which can be considered by decision makers and used to inform where to set management thresholds. This approach encourages a proactive form of conservation, where management thresholds and associated actions are defined a priori for ecological indicators, rather than reacting to unexpected ecosystem changes in the future. © 2015 The Authors Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Desynchronization of chaos in coupled logistic maps.

PubMed

Maistrenko, Y L; Maistrenko, V L; Popovych, O; Mosekilde, E

1999-09-01

When identical chaotic oscillators interact, a state of complete or partial synchronization may be attained in which the motion is restricted to an invariant manifold of lower dimension than the full phase space. Riddling of the basin of attraction arises when particular orbits embedded in the synchronized chaotic state become transversely unstable while the state remains attracting on the average. Considering a system of two coupled logistic maps, we show that the transition to riddling will be soft or hard, depending on whether the first orbit to lose its transverse stability undergoes a supercritical or subcritical bifurcation. A subcritical bifurcation can lead directly to global riddling of the basin of attraction for the synchronized chaotic state. A supercritical bifurcation, on the other hand, is associated with the formation of a so-called mixed absorbing area that stretches along the synchronized chaotic state, and from which trajectories cannot escape. This gives rise to locally riddled basins of attraction. We present three different scenarios for the onset of riddling and for the subsequent transformations of the basins of attraction. Each scenario is described by following the type and location of the relevant asynchronous cycles, and determining their stable and unstable invariant manifolds. One scenario involves a contact bifurcation between the boundary of the basin of attraction and the absorbing area. Another scenario involves a long and interesting series of bifurcations starting with the stabilization of the asynchronous cycle produced in the riddling bifurcation and ending in a boundary crisis where the stability of an asynchronous chaotic state is destroyed. Finally, a phase diagram is presented to illustrate the parameter values at which the various transitions occur.

The Soil Model Development and Intercomparison Panel (SoilMIP) of the International Soil Modeling Consortium (ISMC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanderborght, Jan; Priesack, Eckart

2017-04-01

The Soil Model Development and Intercomparison Panel (SoilMIP) is an initiative of the International Soil Modeling Consortium. Its mission is to foster the further development of soil models that can predict soil functions and their changes (i) due to soil use and land management and (ii) due to external impacts of climate change and pollution. Since soil functions and soil threats are diverse but linked with each other, the overall aim is to develop holistic models that represent the key functions of the soil system and the links between them. These models should be scaled up and integrated in terrestrial system models that describe the feedbacks between processes in the soil and the other terrestrial compartments. We propose and illustrate a few steps that could be taken to achieve these goals. A first step is the development of scenarios that compare simulations by models that predict the same or different soil services. Scenarios can be considered at three different levels of comparisons: scenarios that compare the numerics (accuracy but also speed) of models, scenarios that compare the effect of differences in process descriptions, and scenarios that compare simulations with experimental data. A second step involves the derivation of metrics or summary statistics that effectively compare model simulations and disentangle parameterization from model concept differences. These metrics can be used to evaluate how more complex model simulations can be represented by simpler models using an appropriate parameterization. A third step relates to the parameterization of models. Application of simulation models implies that appropriate model parameters have to be defined for a range of environmental conditions and locations. Spatial modelling approaches are used to derive parameter distributions. Considering that soils and their properties emerge from the interaction between physical, chemical and biological processes, the combination of spatial models with process models would lead to consistent parameter distributions correlations and could potentially represent self-organizing processes in soils and landscapes.

Exposure of the general public due to wireless LAN applications in public places.

PubMed

Schmid, G; Preiner, P; Lager, D; Uberbacher, R; Georg, R

2007-01-01

The typical exposure caused by wireless LAN applications in public areas has been investigated in a variety of scenarios. Small-sized (internet café) and large-scale (airport) indoor scenarios as well as outdoor scenarios in the environment of access points (AP) supplying for residential areas and public places were considered. The exposure assessment was carried out by numerical GTD/UTD computations based on optical wave propagation, as well as by verifying frequency selective measurements in the considered scenarios under real life conditions. In the small-sized indoor scenario the maximum temporal peak values of power density, spatially averaged over body dimensions, were found to be lower than 20 mW/m(2), corresponding to 0.2% of the reference level according to the European Council Recommendation 1999/519/EC. Local peak values of power density might be 1-2 orders of magnitude higher, spatial and time-averaged values for usual data traffic conditions might be 2-3 orders of magnitude lower, depending on the actual data traffic. In the considered outdoor scenarios, exposure was several orders of magnitude lower than in indoor scenarios due to the usually larger distances to the AP antennas.

Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

PubMed

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sherwin, P.

1981-01-01

All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

Techno-economic analysis and climate change impacts of sugarcane biorefineries considering different time horizons.

PubMed

Junqueira, Tassia L; Chagas, Mateus F; Gouveia, Vera L R; Rezende, Mylene C A F; Watanabe, Marcos D B; Jesus, Charles D F; Cavalett, Otavio; Milanez, Artur Y; Bonomi, Antonio

2017-01-01

Ethanol production from lignocellulosic feedstocks (also known as 2nd generation or 2G ethanol process) presents a great potential for reducing both ethanol production costs and climate change impacts since agricultural residues and dedicated energy crops are used as feedstock. This study aimed at the quantification of the economic and environmental impacts considering the current and future scenarios of sugarcane biorefineries taking into account not only the improvements of the industrial process but also of biomass production systems. Technology assumptions and scenarios setup were supported by main companies and stakeholders, involved in the lignocellulosic ethanol production chain from Brazil and abroad. For instance, scenarios considered higher efficiencies and lower residence times for pretreatment, enzymatic hydrolysis, and fermentation (including pentoses fermentation); higher sugarcane yields; and introduction of energy cane (a high fiber variety of cane). Ethanol production costs were estimated for different time horizons. In the short term, 2G ethanol presents higher costs compared to 1st generation (1G) ethanol. However, in the long term, 2G ethanol is more competitive, presenting remarkable lower production cost than 1G ethanol, even considering some uncertainties regarding technology and market aspects. In addition, environmental assessment showed that both 1G (in the medium and long term) and 2G ethanol can reduce climate change impacts by more than 80% when compared to gasoline. This work showed the great potential of 2G ethanol production in terms of economic and environmental aspects. These results can support new research programs and public policies designed to stimulate both production and consumption of 2G ethanol in Brazil, accelerating the path along the learning curve. Some examples of mechanisms include: incentives to the establishment of local equipment and enzyme suppliers; and specific funding programs for the development and use of energy cane.

Life-cycle assessment of typical Portuguese cork oak woodlands.

PubMed

González-García, Sara; Dias, Ana Cláudia; Arroja, Luis

2013-05-01

Cork forest systems are responsible for making an important economic contribution to the Mediterranean region, especially Portugal where the cork oak woodlands or montados contain about 32% of the world's area. The environmental profile derived from reproduction cork production and extraction in two Portuguese regions (Tagus valley and Alentejo) representative of the Portuguese sector were assessed in detail using the Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology from a cradle-to-gate perspective. The production line was divided into four stages considering all the processes involved: stand establishment, stand management, cork stripping and field recovery. According to the environmental results, there were remarkable differences between the two production scenarios mainly due to the intensity and repetition of forest activities even though the cork yield was reported to be the same. The management system in the Alentejo region presented the worse environmental profile in almost all the impact categories under assessment, mainly due to the shorter cycle duration of the mechanical cleaning and pruning processes. Cork stripping was identified in both scenarios as the production stage with the highest contribution to the environmental profile due to the cleaning and pruning processes. A sensitivity assessment concerning the cork yield was performed since the average production yields in the Portuguese montados are lower than the ones used in this study. Thus, if the cork yield is reduced, the environmental profile in both scenarios gets worse since almost all the forest activities involved are the same. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nuclear energy in Europe: uranium flow modeling and fuel cycle scenario trade-offs from a sustainability perspective.

PubMed

Tendall, Danielle M; Binder, Claudia R

2011-03-15

The European nuclear fuel cycle (covering the EU-27, Switzerland and Ukraine) was modeled using material flow analysis (MFA).The analysis was based on publicly available data from nuclear energy agencies and industries, national trade offices, and nongovernmental organizations. Military uranium was not considered due to lack of accessible data. Nuclear fuel cycle scenarios varying spent fuel reprocessing, depleted uranium re-enrichment, enrichment assays, and use of fast neutron reactors, were established. They were then assessed according to environmental, economic and social criteria such as resource depletion, waste production, chemical and radiation emissions, costs, and proliferation risks. The most preferable scenario in the short term is a combination of reduced tails assay and enrichment grade, allowing a 17.9% reduction of uranium demand without significantly increasing environmental, economic, or social risks. In the long term, fast reactors could theoretically achieve a 99.4% decrease in uranium demand and nuclear waste production. However, this involves important costs and proliferation risks. Increasing material efficiency is not systematically correlated with the reduction of other risks. This suggests that an overall optimization of the nuclear fuel cycle is difficult to obtain. Therefore, criteria must be weighted according to stakeholder interests in order to determine the most sustainable solution. This paper models the flows of uranium and associated materials in Europe, and provides a decision support tool for identifying the trade-offs of the alternative nuclear fuel cycles considered.

The safety review and approval process for space nuclear power sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, G.L.

1991-01-01

Over the past 30 yr. the U.S. Government has evolved a process for the safety review and launch approval of nuclear power sources (NPSs) proposed for launch into space. This process, which involves a number of governmental agencies, ensures that the various postulated accident scenarios are considered, that the responses of the NPSs to the accident environments are assessed, and that appropriate elements of the Federal Government are involved in the launch approval. This process has worked very well in the successful launches of 37 radioisotope thermoelectric generators and 1 reactor by the United States since 1961. Particular attention willmore » be focused on the recent launch of the Galileo spacecraft. 19 refs., 12 figs., 4 tabs.« less

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne wind shear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibson, Joseph P., Jr.

1992-01-01

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne windshear detection systems was developed to support a deployment study for future FAA ground-based windshear detection systems. The deployment study methodology assesses potential future safety enhancements beyond planned capabilities. The reactive airborne systems will be an integral part of planned windshear safety enhancements. The approach to evaluating reactive airborne systems involves separate analyses for both landing and take-off scenario. The analysis estimates the probability of effective warning considering several factors including NASA energy height loss characteristics, reactive alert timing, and a probability distribution for microburst strength.

Reflection and reasoning in moral judgment.

PubMed

Paxton, Joseph M; Ungar, Leo; Greene, Joshua D

2012-01-01

While there is much evidence for the influence of automatic emotional responses on moral judgment, the roles of reflection and reasoning remain uncertain. In Experiment 1, we induced subjects to be more reflective by completing the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) prior to responding to moral dilemmas. This manipulation increased utilitarian responding, as individuals who reflected more on the CRT made more utilitarian judgments. A follow-up study suggested that trait reflectiveness is also associated with increased utilitarian judgment. In Experiment 2, subjects considered a scenario involving incest between consenting adult siblings, a scenario known for eliciting emotionally driven condemnation that resists reasoned persuasion. Here, we manipulated two factors related to moral reasoning: argument strength and deliberation time. These factors interacted in a manner consistent with moral reasoning: A strong argument defending the incestuous behavior was more persuasive than a weak argument, but only when increased deliberation time encouraged subjects to reflect. Copyright © 2011 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Information Security Analysis Using Game Theory and Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schlicher, Bob G; Abercrombie, Robert K

Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic simulations of Agent Based Models (ABMs). Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. Our approach addresses imperfect information and scalability that allows us to also address previous limitations of current stochastic game models. Such models only consider perfect information assuming that the defender is always able to detect attacks; assuming that the state transition probabilities are fixed before the game assuming that the players actions aremore » always synchronous; and that most models are not scalable with the size and complexity of systems under consideration. Our use of ABMs yields results of selected experiments that demonstrate our proposed approach and provides a quantitative measure for realistic information systems and their related security scenarios.« less

ID201202961, DOE S-124,539, Information Security Analysis Using Game Theory and Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G

Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic simulations of Agent Based Models (ABMs). Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. Our approach addresses imperfect information and scalability that allows us to also address previous limitations of current stochastic game models. Such models only consider perfect information assuming that the defender is always able to detect attacks; assuming that the state transition probabilities are fixed before the game assuming that the players actions aremore » always synchronous; and that most models are not scalable with the size and complexity of systems under consideration. Our use of ABMs yields results of selected experiments that demonstrate our proposed approach and provides a quantitative measure for realistic information systems and their related security scenarios.« less

An inexact multistage fuzzy-stochastic programming for regional electric power system management constrained by environmental quality.

PubMed

Fu, Zhenghui; Wang, Han; Lu, Wentao; Guo, Huaicheng; Li, Wei

2017-12-01

Electric power system involves different fields and disciplines which addressed the economic system, energy system, and environment system. Inner uncertainty of this compound system would be an inevitable problem. Therefore, an inexact multistage fuzzy-stochastic programming (IMFSP) was developed for regional electric power system management constrained by environmental quality. A model which concluded interval-parameter programming, multistage stochastic programming, and fuzzy probability distribution was built to reflect the uncertain information and dynamic variation in the case study, and the scenarios under different credibility degrees were considered. For all scenarios under consideration, corrective actions were allowed to be taken dynamically in accordance with the pre-regulated policies and the uncertainties in reality. The results suggest that the methodology is applicable to handle the uncertainty of regional electric power management systems and help the decision makers to establish an effective development plan.

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces of land change, and is transferable to other case study areas with different land use change processes and consequences. The framework starts with the involvement of stakeholders where driving forces of land use change are being studied by performing interviews and group discussions. In order to bridge the gap between qualitative methods and conventional geospatial techniques, we applied cognitive mapping and the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact and Response framework (DPSIR) to develop a conceptual land use change model. This was later transformed into a spatially explicit land use change model based on remote sensing data, GIS and cellular automata spatial allocation. The methodology was developed and applied in a study area in the eastern Italian Alps, where the uncertainties regarding future urban expansion are high. Later, we transferred it to a study area in the Romanian Carpathians, where the identified prevailing process of land use change is deforestation. Both areas are subject to hydro-meteorological risk, posing a need for the analysis of the possible future spatial pattern and locations of land use change. The resulting scenarios enabled us, to point at identifying hot-spots of land use change, serving as a possible input for a risk assessment.

Carbon farming economics: What have we learned?

PubMed

Tang, Kai; Kragt, Marit E; Hailu, Atakelty; Ma, Chunbo

2016-05-01

This study reviewed 62 economic analyses published between 1995 and 2014 on the economic impacts of policies that incentivise agricultural greenhouse (GHG) mitigation. Typically, biophysical models are used to evaluate the changes in GHG mitigation that result from landholders changing their farm and land management practices. The estimated results of biophysical models are then integrated with economic models to simulate the costs of different policy scenarios to production systems. The cost estimates vary between $3 and $130/t CO2 equivalent in 2012 US dollars, depending on the mitigation strategies, spatial locations, and policy scenarios considered. Most studies assessed the consequences of a single, rather than multiple, mitigation strategies, and few considered the co-benefits of carbon farming. These omissions could challenge the reality and robustness of the studies' results. One of the biggest challenges facing agricultural economists is to assess the full extent of the trade-offs involved in carbon farming. We need to improve our biophysical knowledge about carbon farming co-benefits, predict the economic impacts of employing multiple strategies and policy incentives, and develop the associated integrated models, to estimate the full costs and benefits of agricultural GHG mitigation to farmers and the rest of society. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Value of Collaboration With Standardized Patients and Patient Facilitators in Enhancing Reflection During the Process of Building a Simulation.

PubMed

Stanley, Claire; Lindsay, Sally; Parker, Kathryn; Kawamura, Anne; Samad Zubairi, Mohammad

2018-05-09

We previously reported that experienced clinicians find the process of collectively building and participating in simulations provide (1) a unique reflective opportunity; (2) a venue to identify different perspectives through discussion and action in a group; and (3) a safe environment for learning. No studies have assessed the value of collaborating with standardized patients (SPs) and patient facilitators (PFs) in the process. In this work, we describe this collaboration in building a simulation and the key elements that facilitate reflection. Three simulation scenarios surrounding communication were built by teams of clinicians, a PF, and SPs. Six build sessions were audio recorded, transcribed, and thematically analyzed through an iterative process to (1) describe the steps of building a simulation scenario and (2) identify the key elements involved in the collaboration. The five main steps to build a simulation scenario were (1) storytelling and reflection; (2) defining objectives and brainstorming ideas; (3) building a stem and creating a template; (4) refining the scenario with feedback from SPs; and (5) mock run-throughs with follow-up discussion. During these steps, the PF shared personal insights, challenging participants to reflect deeper to better understand and consider the patient's perspective. The SPs provided unique outside perspective to the group. In addition, the interaction between the SPs and the PF helped refine character roles. A collaborative approach incorporating feedback from PFs and SPs to create a simulation scenario is a valuable method to enhance reflective practice for clinicians.

Interpreting energy scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

Formation of double neutron star systems as implied by observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beniamini, Paz; Piran, Tsvi

2016-03-01

Double Neutron Stars (DNS) have to survive two supernovae (SNe) and still remain bound. This sets strong limits on the nature of the second collapse in these systems. We consider the masses and orbital parameters of the DNS population and constrain the two distributions of mass ejection and kick velocities directly from observations with no a priori assumptions regarding evolutionary models and/or the types of the SNe involved. We show that there is strong evidence for two distinct types of SNe in these systems, where the second collapse in the majority of the observed systems involved small mass ejection (ΔM ≲ 0.5 M⊙) and a corresponding low-kick velocity (vk ≲ 30 km s-1). This formation scenario is compatible, for example, with an electron-capture SN. Only a minority of the systems have formed via the standard SN scenario involving larger mass ejection of ˜2.2 M⊙ and kick velocities of up to 400 km s-1. Due to the typically small kicks in most DNS (which are reflected by rather low proper motion), we predict that most of these systems reside close to the Galactic disc. In particular, this implies that more NS-NS mergers occur close to the Galactic plane. This may have non-trivial implications to the estimated merger rates of DNS and to the rate of LIGO/VIRGO detections.

Public Interest in Medical Research Participation: Does It Matter if Patients or Community Members Have Helped Design the Study?

PubMed

Cobb, Enesha M; Gebremariam, Achamyeleh; Singer, Dianne; Davis, Matthew M

2015-10-01

We determined national levels of public participation in medical research study design. We compared public interest in medical research participation (MRP) in studies overall, versus studies explicitly designed with public involvement. Cross-sectional household survey of US population in June 2013. Descriptive statistics estimated participation in medical research study design. Chi-square test compared levels of interest in MRP if respondent knew patients or community members helped design the study. Of 2,048 respondents (participation rate 60%), 5% knew someone who had helped design a medical research study. There was no association between having known someone or personal participation in study design and willingness to engage in MRP. Although the overall proportion of respondents who would consider MRP initially (51%) was similar to the proportion who would consider MRP with community member involvement in study design (49%), the changes in respondents' views across the different scenarios were significantly greater than what would have been expected by chance. We found similar levels of interest in MRP whether or not the public is involved in medical research study design. This finding may indicate that public involvement in study design, like community-based participatory research, may not affect overall rates of MRP. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparative cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment of biogas production from marine algae and cattle manure biorefineries.

PubMed

Giwa, Adewale

2017-11-01

The environmental impacts resulting from the cradle-to-grave life cycles of Enteromorpha prolifera macroalgae and cattle manure biorefineries are assessed and compared. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to evaluate the response of the impacts to changes in biogas application by using Simapro 7.3.3. Three scenarios are considered in the biorefineries. In the first and second scenarios, the biogas produced is considered to be used for electricity production and transportation, respectively. In the third scenario, the biogas is considered to be recycled back to the systems. Process energy requirements and transportation of inputs contribute the largest share of the overall impacts. The cattle manure biorefinery is slightly more eco-friendly than the macroalgae biorefinery in Scenarios 1 and 2 because it requires more eco-friendly inputs. However, the macroalgae biorefinery becomes more eco-friendly than the cattle manure biorefinery in Scenario 3 because macroalgae require less energy and water for biogas production. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-criteria analysis for municipal solid waste management in a Brazilian metropolitan area.

PubMed

Santos, Simone Machado; Silva, Maisa Mendonça; Melo, Renata Maciel; Gavazza, Savia; Florencio, Lourdinha; Kato, Mario T

2017-10-15

The decision-making process involved in municipal solid waste management (MSWM) must consider more than just financial aspects, which makes it a difficult task in developing countries. The Recife Metropolitan Region (RMR) in the Northeast of Brazil faces a MSWM problem that has been ongoing since the 1970s, with no common solution. In order to direct short-term solutions, three MSWM alternatives were outlined for the RMR, considering the current and future situations, the time and cost involved and social/environmental criteria. A multi-criteria approach, based on the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), was proposed to rank these alternatives. The alternative that included two private landfill sites and seven transfer, sorting and composting stations was confirmed as the most suitable and stable option for short-term MSWM, considering the two scenarios for the criteria weights. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to support the robustness of the results. The implementation of separate collections would minimize the amount of waste buried, while maximizing the useful life of landfill sites and increasing the timeframe of the alternative. Overall, the multi-criteria analysis was helpful and accurate during the alternative selection process, considering the similarities and restrictions of each option, which can lead to difficulties during the decision-making process.

Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

PubMed Central

Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

2012-01-01

Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

Reliable freestanding position-based routing in highway scenarios.

PubMed

Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

2012-10-24

Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model.

Future Scenarios of Livestock and Land Use in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, M. H.; Abrahão, G. M.

2016-12-01

Brazil currently has about 213 M cattle heads in 151 M ha of pastures. In the last 40 years, both the top 5% and the average stocking rate are increasing exponentially in Brazil, while the relative yield gap has been constant. Using these historical relationships, we estimate future scenarios of livestock and land use in Brazil. We assume a reference scenario for the top 5%, in which pasturelands are adequately fertilized, soil is not compacted and well drained, grasses are never burned, pastures are divided in 8 subdivisions of regular area, are cattle is rotated through the subdivisions. The reference scenario does not consider irrigation or feed supplementation. We calibrate a computer model and run it for the pasturelands throughout the entire country. We conclude that current pastures have about 20% efficiency to raise cattle compared to the reference scenario. Considering the reference scenario, we predict an equilibrium will be reached in about 100 years, with top 5% with about 9.3 heads per ha and the average 4.3 heads per ha, or 600 M heads of livestock. Considering a more pessimistic scenario, which considers an inflection of the curve in present times, we predict an equilibrium will be reached in about 60 years, with the top 5% stocking rate equal to 4.3 heads per ha and the average equal to 2.2 heads per ha, or 300 M heads of livestock. Both cases represent a considerable expansion of the livestock, maybe even higher than the growth of the global demands for beef. These scenarios indicate that not all existing pasturelands need to be used in the future - a significant part of them may be converted to croplands, which will also contribute to the reduction of deforestation.

Potential economic impacts of water-use changes in southwest Kansas

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This research considers three policy scenarios aimed at reducing groundwater consumption in three high priority subareas of southwest Kansas. The three policy scenarios include: (1) a Status Quo scenario where there is no change in water-use policy, (2) an Immediate Conversion to Dryland scenario wh...

Inferring population history with DIY ABC: a user-friendly approach to approximate Bayesian computation.

PubMed

Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Santos, Filipe; Beaumont, Mark A; Robert, Christian P; Marin, Jean-Michel; Balding, David J; Guillemaud, Thomas; Estoup, Arnaud

2008-12-01

Genetic data obtained on population samples convey information about their evolutionary history. Inference methods can extract part of this information but they require sophisticated statistical techniques that have been made available to the biologist community (through computer programs) only for simple and standard situations typically involving a small number of samples. We propose here a computer program (DIY ABC) for inference based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), in which scenarios can be customized by the user to fit many complex situations involving any number of populations and samples. Such scenarios involve any combination of population divergences, admixtures and population size changes. DIY ABC can be used to compare competing scenarios, estimate parameters for one or more scenarios and compute bias and precision measures for a given scenario and known values of parameters (the current version applies to unlinked microsatellite data). This article describes key methods used in the program and provides its main features. The analysis of one simulated and one real dataset, both with complex evolutionary scenarios, illustrates the main possibilities of DIY ABC. The software DIY ABC is freely available at http://www.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc.

The benefits of a fast reactor closed fuel cycle in the UK

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gregg, R.; Hesketh, K.

2013-07-01

The work has shown that starting a fast reactor closed fuel cycle in the UK, requires virtually all of Britain's existing and future PWR spent fuel to be reprocessed, in order to obtain the plutonium needed. The existing UK Pu stockpile is sufficient to initially support only a modest SFR 'closed' fleet assuming spent fuel can be reprocessed shortly after discharge (i.e. after two years cooling). For a substantial fast reactor fleet, most Pu will have to originate from reprocessing future spent PWR fuel. Therefore, the maximum fast reactor fleet size will be limited by the preceding PWR fleet size,more » so scenarios involving fast reactors still require significant quantities of uranium ore indirectly. However, once a fast reactor fuel cycle has been established, the very substantial quantities of uranium tails in the UK would ensure there is sufficient material for several centuries. Both the short and long term impacts on a repository have been considered in this work. Over the short term, the decay heat emanating from the HLW and spent fuel will limit the density of waste within a repository. For scenarios involving fast reactors, the only significant heat bearing actinide content will be present in the final cores, resulting in a 50% overall reduction in decay energy deposited within the repository when compared with an equivalent open fuel cycle. Over the longer term, radiological dose becomes more important. Total radiotoxicity (normalised by electricity generated) is lower for scenarios with Pu recycle after 2000 years. Scenarios involving fast reactors have the lowest radiotoxicity since the quantities of certain actinides (Np, Pu and Am) eventually stabilise. However, total radiotoxicity as a measure of radiological risk does not account for differences in radionuclide mobility once in repository. Radiological dose is dominated by a small number of fission products so is therefore not affected significantly by reactor type or recycling strategy (since the fission product will primarily be a function of nuclear energy generated). However, by reprocessing spent fuel, it is possible to immobilise the fission product in a more suitable waste form that has far more superior in-repository performance. (authors)« less

Identifying Effective Design Approaches to Allocate Genotypes in Two-Phase Designs: A Case Study in Pelargonium zonale.

PubMed

Molenaar, Heike; Boehm, Robert; Piepho, Hans-Peter

2017-01-01

Robust phenotypic data allow adequate statistical analysis and are crucial for any breeding purpose. Such data is obtained from experiments laid out to best control local variation. Additionally, experiments frequently involve two phases, each contributing environmental sources of variation. For example, in a former experiment we conducted to evaluate production related traits in Pelargonium zonale , there were two consecutive phases, each performed in a different greenhouse. Phase one involved the propagation of the breeding strains to obtain the stem cutting count, and phase two involved the assessment of root formation. The evaluation of the former study raised questions regarding options for improving the experimental layout: (i) Is there a disadvantage to using exactly the same design in both phases? (ii) Instead of generating a separate layout for each phase, can the design be optimized across both phases, such that the mean variance of a pair-wise treatment difference (MVD) can be decreased? To answer these questions, alternative approaches were explored to generate two-phase designs either in phase-wise order (Option 1) or across phases (Option 2). In Option 1 we considered the scenarios (i) using in both phases the same experimental design and (ii) randomizing each phase separately. In Option 2, we considered the scenarios (iii) generating a single design with eight replicates and splitting these among the two phases, (iv) separating the block structure across phases by dummy coding, and (v) design generation with optimal alignment of block units in the two phases. In both options, we considered the same or different block structures in each phase. The designs were evaluated by the MVD obtained by the intra-block analysis and the joint inter-block-intra-block analysis. The smallest MVD was most frequently obtained for designs generated across phases rather than for each phase separately, in particular when both phases of the design were separated with a single pseudo-level. The joint optimization ensured that treatment concurrences were equally balanced across pairs, one of the prerequisites for an efficient design. The proposed alternative approaches can be implemented with any model-based design packages with facilities to formulate linear models for treatment and block structures.

Moon manned missions radiation safety analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathi, R. K.; Wilson, J. W.; de Anlelis, G.; Badavi, F. F.

An analysis is performed on the radiation environment found on the surface of the Moon, and applied to different possible lunar base mission scenarios. An optimization technique has been used to obtain mission scenarios minimizing the astronaut radiation exposure and at the same time controlling the effect of shielding, in terms of mass addition and material choice, as a mission cost driver. The optimization process has been realized through minimization of mass along all phases of a mission scenario, in terms of time frame (dates, transfer time length and trajectory, radiation environment), equipment (vehicles, in terms of shape, volume, onboard material choice, size and structure), location (if in space, on the surface, inside or outside a certain habitats), crew characteristics (number, gender, age, tasks) and performance required (spacecraft and habitat volumes), radiation exposure annual and career limit constraint (from NCRP 132), and implementation of the ALARA principle (shelter from the occurrence of Solar Particle Events). On the lunar surface the most important contribution to radiation exposure is given by background Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) particles, mostly protons, alpha particles, and some heavy ions, and by locally induced particles, mostly neutrons, created by the interaction between GCR and surface material and emerging from below the surface due to backscattering processes. In this environment manned habitats are to host future crews involved in the construction and/or in the utilization of moon based infrastructure. Three different kinds of lunar missions are considered in the analysis, Moon Base Construction Phase, during which astronauts are on the surface just to build an outpost for future resident crews, Moon Base Outpost Phase, during which astronaut crews are resident but continuing exploration and installation activities, and Moon Base Routine Phase, with long-term shifting resident crews. In each scenario various kinds of habitats, from very simple shelters to more complex bases, are considered in full detail (e.g., shape, thickness, materials, etc) with considerations of various shielding strategies. In this first analysis all the shape considered are cylindrical or composed of combination of cylinders. Moreover, a radiation safety analysis of more future possible habitats like lava tubes has been also performed.

Renewable energies in electricity generation for reduction of greenhouse gases in Mexico 2025.

PubMed

Islas, Jorge; Manzini, Fabio; Martínez, Manuel

2002-02-01

This study presents 4 scenarios relating to the environmental futures of electricity generation in Mexico up to the year 2025. The first scenario emphasizes the use of oil products, particularly fuel oil, and represents the historic path of Mexico's energy policy. The second scenario prioritizes the use of natural gas, reflecting the energy consumption pattern that arose in the mid-1990s as a result of reforms in the energy sector. In the third scenario, the high participation of renewable sources of energy is considered feasible from a technical and economic point of view. The fourth scenario takes into account the present- and medium-term use of natural-gas technologies that the energy reform has produced, but after 2007 a high and feasible participation of renewable sources of energy is considered. The 4 scenarios are evaluated up to the year 2025 in terms of greenhouse gases (GHG) and acid rain precursor gases (ARPG).

Effects of medical training scenarios on heart rate variability and motivation in students and simulated patients.

PubMed

Rieber, Nicole; Betz, Lisa; Enck, Paul; Muth, Eric; Nikendei, Christoph; Schrauth, Markus; Werner, Anne; Kowalski, Axel; Zipfel, Stephan

2009-06-01

Research regarding the experience of stress during medical training scenarios using standardised patients (SPs) has been primarily qualitative and has focused on the SPs. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate stress and motivation in both students and SPs during these scenarios by measuring heart rate variability (HRV) and administering the German version of the Questionnaire on Current Motivation (QCM). A total of 44 medical students (23 women, 21 men) participated in two medical history-taking training scenarios. In one scenario the SP role-played a patient with a somatic disease; in the other the SP played a patient with a psychosomatic disease, creating easy and difficult scenarios, respectively, for the student. Each student interviewed one of 11 SPs (five women, six men), using the same SP in both scenarios. Heart rate variability was measured during baseline periods and during the training scenarios in both students and SPs. Motivation was assessed before each training scenario. Heart rate variability was lower in both students and SPs during the scenarios compared with baseline values, but did not differ by scenario type. For students, motivation increased when the first scenario involved psychosomatic illness, but decreased when the first condition was somatic. For SPs motivation was consistent over time for scenarios involving psychosomatic disease, but decreased for somatic disease-related scenarios. The training scenarios induced stress in both students and SPs, as indicated by decreased HRV. Student motivation was high, indicating that SP scenarios represent a valid teaching method. Further studies in the natural setting of SP examinations are needed.

Climate change adaptation accounting for huge uncertainties in future projections - the case of urban drainage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick

2015-04-01

Hydrological design parameters, which are currently used in the guidelines for the design of urban drainage systems (Willems et al., 2013) have been revised, taking the Flanders region of Belgium as case study. The revision involved extrapolation of the design rainfall statistics, taking into account the current knowledge on future climate change trends till 2100. Uncertainties in these trend projections have been assessed after statistically analysing and downscaling by a quantile perturbation tool based on a broad ensemble set of climate model simulation results (44 regional + 69 global control-scenario climate model run combinations for different greenhouse gas scenarios). The impact results of the climate scenarios were investigated as changes to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Thereafter, the climate scenarios and related changes in rainfall statistics were transferred to changes in flood frequencies of sewer systems and overflow frequencies of storage facilities. This has been done based on conceptual urban drainage models. Also the change in storage capacity required to exceed a given overflow return period, has been calculated for a range of return periods and infiltration or throughflow rates. These results were used on the basis of the revision of the hydraulic design rules of urban drainage systems. One of the major challenges while formulating these policy guidelines was the consideration of the huge uncertainties in the future climate change projections and impact assessments; see also the difficulties and pitfalls reported by the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage - Working group on urban rainfall (Willems et al., 2012). We made use of the risk concept, and found it a very useful approach to deal with the high uncertainties. It involves an impact study of the different climate projections, or - for practical reasons - a reduced set of climate scenarios tailored for the specific type of impact considered (urban floods in our case study), following the approach proposed by Ntegeka et al. (2014). When the consequences of given scenarios are high, they should be taken into account in the decision making process. For the Flanders' guidelines, it was agreed among the members of the regional Coordination Commission Integrated Water Management to consider (in addition to the traditional range of return periods up to 5 years) a 20-year design storm for scenario investigation. It was motivated by the outcome of this study that under the high climate scenario a 20-year storm would become - in order of magnitude - a 5-year storm. If after a design for a 5-year storm, the 20-year scenario investigation would conclude that specific zones along the sewer system would have severe additional impacts, it is recommended to apply changes to the system or to design flexible adaptation measures for the future (depending on which of the options would be most cost-efficient). Another adaptation action agreed was the installation of storm water infiltration devices at private houses and make these mandatory for new and renovated houses. Such installation was found to be cost-effective in any of the climate scenario's. This is one way of dealing with climate uncertainties, but lessons learned from other cases/applications are highly welcomed. References Ntegeka, V., Baguis, P., Roulin, E., Willems, P. (2014), 'Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments', Journal of Hydrology, 508C, 307-321 Willems, P. (2013). 'Revision of urban drainage design rules after assessment of climate change impacts on precipitation extremes at Uccle, Belgium', Journal of Hydrology, 496, 166-177 Willems, P., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Olsson, J., Nguyen, V.T.V. (2012), 'Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: methods and shortcomings', Atmospheric Research, 103, 106-118

Improving UWB-Based Localization in IoT Scenarios with Statistical Models of Distance Error.

PubMed

Monica, Stefania; Ferrari, Gianluigi

2018-05-17

Interest in the Internet of Things (IoT) is rapidly increasing, as the number of connected devices is exponentially growing. One of the application scenarios envisaged for IoT technologies involves indoor localization and context awareness. In this paper, we focus on a localization approach that relies on a particular type of communication technology, namely Ultra Wide Band (UWB). UWB technology is an attractive choice for indoor localization, owing to its high accuracy. Since localization algorithms typically rely on estimated inter-node distances, the goal of this paper is to evaluate the improvement brought by a simple (linear) statistical model of the distance error. On the basis of an extensive experimental measurement campaign, we propose a general analytical framework, based on a Least Square (LS) method, to derive a novel statistical model for the range estimation error between a pair of UWB nodes. The proposed statistical model is then applied to improve the performance of a few illustrative localization algorithms in various realistic scenarios. The obtained experimental results show that the use of the proposed statistical model improves the accuracy of the considered localization algorithms with a reduction of the localization error up to 66%.

An event driven hybrid identity management approach to privacy enhanced e-health.

PubMed

Sánchez-Guerrero, Rosa; Almenárez, Florina; Díaz-Sánchez, Daniel; Marín, Andrés; Arias, Patricia; Sanvido, Fabio

2012-01-01

Credential-based authorization offers interesting advantages for ubiquitous scenarios involving limited devices such as sensors and personal mobile equipment: the verification can be done locally; it offers a more reduced computational cost than its competitors for issuing, storing, and verification; and it naturally supports rights delegation. The main drawback is the revocation of rights. Revocation requires handling potentially large revocation lists, or using protocols to check the revocation status, bringing extra communication costs not acceptable for sensors and other limited devices. Moreover, the effective revocation consent--considered as a privacy rule in sensitive scenarios--has not been fully addressed. This paper proposes an event-based mechanism empowering a new concept, the sleepyhead credentials, which allows to substitute time constraints and explicit revocation by activating and deactivating authorization rights according to events. Our approach is to integrate this concept in IdM systems in a hybrid model supporting delegation, which can be an interesting alternative for scenarios where revocation of consent and user privacy are critical. The delegation includes a SAML compliant protocol, which we have validated through a proof-of-concept implementation. This article also explains the mathematical model describing the event-based model and offers estimations of the overhead introduced by the system. The paper focus on health care scenarios, where we show the flexibility of the proposed event-based user consent revocation mechanism.

From mixed to separate collection of solid waste: benefits for the town of Zavidovići (Bosnia and Herzegovina).

PubMed

Vaccari, Mentore; Di Bella, Veronica; Vitali, Francesco; Collivignarelli, Carlo

2013-02-01

In Bosnia and Herzegovina only 50% of the municipalities have a well-organized service for (mixed) waste collection and disposal. Illegal dumping is very common, in particular in rural areas, which are not regularly served by any service of collection. This situation leads to serious risks for public health and has dangerous environmental impacts. In Zavidovići the municipality is trying to meet high standards in the delivery of services of waste collection, but is constrained by scarce financial and technical resources. Different scenarios for the implementation of a system of separate collection in Zavidovići were elaborated in order to provide a useful tool for decision making by comparing costs and environmental & economic benefits of each scenario. Six scenarios were considered, based on different recovery rates for plastic, paper & cardboard, and metals. Benefits resulting from the implementation of each of the proposed scenarios are compared in terms of savings of landfill volume and costs. The study concludes that the adoption of a system of separate collection could generate positive impacts on all the stakeholders involved in the solid waste management sector in Zavidovići and could contribute to the compliance of European standards in many Central and Eastern European countries as established by a number of national environmental protection strategies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore.

PubMed

Ansah, John P; De Korne, Dirk; Bayer, Steffen; Pan, Chong; Jayabaskar, Thiyagarajan; Matchar, David B; Lew, Nicola; Phua, Andrew; Koh, Victoria; Lamoureux, Ecosse; Quek, Desmond

2015-11-17

Singapore's population, as that of many other countries, is aging; this is likely to lead to an increase in eye diseases and the demand for eye care. Since ophthalmologist training is long and expensive, early planning is essential. This paper forecasts workforce and training requirements for Singapore up to the year 2040 under several plausible future scenarios. The Singapore Eye Care Workforce Model was created as a continuous time compartment model with explicit workforce stocks using system dynamics. The model has three modules: prevalence of eye disease, demand, and workforce requirements. The model is used to simulate the prevalence of eye diseases, patient visits, and workforce requirements for the public sector under different scenarios in order to determine training requirements. Four scenarios were constructed. Under the baseline business-as-usual scenario, the required number of ophthalmologists is projected to increase by 117% from 2015 to 2040. Under the current policy scenario (assuming an increase of service uptake due to increased awareness, availability, and accessibility of eye care services), the increase will be 175%, while under the new model of care scenario (considering the additional effect of providing some services by non-ophthalmologists) the increase will only be 150%. The moderated workload scenario (assuming in addition a reduction of the clinical workload) projects an increase in the required number of ophthalmologists of 192% by 2040. Considering the uncertainties in the projected demand for eye care services, under the business-as-usual scenario, a residency intake of 8-22 residents per year is required, 17-21 under the current policy scenario, 14-18 under the new model of care scenario, and, under the moderated workload scenario, an intake of 18-23 residents per year is required. The results show that under all scenarios considered, Singapore's aging and growing population will result in an almost doubling of the number of Singaporeans with eye conditions, a significant increase in public sector eye care demand and, consequently, a greater requirement for ophthalmologists.

Postpartum management of diabetes pregnancy.

PubMed

Hossain, Nazli

2016-09-01

Diabetes mellitus has assumed the role of an epidemic. Previously considered a disease of affluent developed countries, it has become more common in developing countries. Pakistan is included among the countries with a high prevalence of diabetes. In this scenario, postpartum management of a woman with diabetes mellitus becomes more important as in this period counseling and educating a woman is essential. Counselling includes life style modifications to prevent future risks involving all the systems of the body. This review article discusses management of diabetes mellitus in postpartum period, guidelines for postpartum screening of women with gestational diabetes mellitus, risks involved in future life and stresses upon the need of local population based studies. Primary care providers and gynaecologists must realize the importance of postpartum screening for diabetes mellitus and provide relevant information to women as well.

Impact of Discrete Corrections in a Modular Approach for Trajectory Generation in Quadruped Robots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Carla M. A.; Santos, Cristina P.; Rocha, Diana; Matos, Vítor

2011-09-01

Online generation of trajectories in robots is a very complex task that involves the combination of different types of movements, i.e., distinct motor primitives. The later are used to model complex behaviors in robots, such as locomotion in irregular terrain and obstacle avoidance. In this paper, we consider two motor primitives: rhythmic and discrete. We study the effect on the robots' gaits of superimposing the two motor primitives, considering two distinct types of coupling. Additionally, we simulate two scenarios, where the discrete primitive is inserted in all of the four limbs, or is inserted in ipsilateral pairs of limbs. Numerical results show that amplitude and frequency of the periodic solutions, corresponding to the gaits trot and pace, are almost constant for diffusive and synaptic couplings.

Medication administration errors from a nursing viewpoint: a formal consensus of definition and scenarios using a Delphi technique.

PubMed

Shawahna, Ramzi; Masri, Dina; Al-Gharabeh, Rawan; Deek, Rawan; Al-Thayba, Lama; Halaweh, Masa

2016-02-01

To develop and achieve formal consensus on a definition of medication administration errors and scenarios that should or should not be considered as medication administration errors in hospitalised patient settings. Medication administration errors occur frequently in hospitalised patient settings. Currently, there is no formal consensus on a definition of medication administration errors or scenarios that should or should not be considered as medication administration errors. This was a descriptive study using Delphi technique. A panel of experts (n = 50) recruited from major hospitals, nursing schools and universities in Palestine took part in the study. Three Delphi rounds were followed to achieve consensus on a proposed definition of medication administration errors and a series of 61 scenarios representing potential medication administration error situations formulated into a questionnaire. In the first Delphi round, key contact nurses' views on medication administration errors were explored. In the second Delphi round, consensus was achieved to accept the proposed definition of medication administration errors and to include 36 (59%) scenarios and exclude 1 (1·6%) as medication administration errors. In the third Delphi round, consensus was achieved to consider further 14 (23%) and exclude 2 (3·3%) as medication administration errors while the remaining eight (13·1%) were considered equivocal. Of the 61 scenarios included in the Delphi process, experts decided to include 50 scenarios as medication administration errors, exclude three scenarios and include or exclude eight scenarios depending on the individual clinical situation. Consensus on a definition and scenarios representing medication administration errors can be achieved using formal consensus techniques. Researchers should be aware that using different definitions of medication administration errors, inclusion or exclusion of medication administration error situations could significantly affect the rate of medication administration errors reported in their studies. Consensual definitions and medication administration error situations can be used in future epidemiology studies investigating medication administration errors in hospitalised patient settings which may permit and promote direct comparisons of different studies. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Diversity modelling for electrical power system simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharip, R. M.; Abu Zarim, M. A. U. A.

2013-12-01

This paper considers diversity of generation and demand profiles against the different future energy scenarios and evaluates these on a technical basis. Compared to previous studies, this research applied a forecasting concept based on possible growth rates from publically electrical distribution scenarios concerning the UK. These scenarios were created by different bodies considering aspects such as environment, policy, regulation, economic and technical. In line with these scenarios, forecasting is on a long term timescale (up to every ten years from 2020 until 2050) in order to create a possible output of generation mix and demand profiles to be used as an appropriate boundary condition for the network simulation. The network considered is a segment of rural LV populated with a mixture of different housing types. The profiles for the 'future' energy and demand have been successfully modelled by applying a forecasting method. The network results under these profiles shows for the cases studied that even though the value of the power produced from each Micro-generation is often in line with the demand requirements of an individual dwelling there will be no problems arising from high penetration of Micro-generation and demand side management for each dwellings considered. The results obtained highlight the technical issues/changes for energy delivery and management to rural customers under the future energy scenarios.

Out of the net: An agent-based model to study human movements influence on local-scale malaria transmission.

PubMed

Pizzitutti, Francesco; Pan, William; Feingold, Beth; Zaitchik, Ben; Álvarez, Carlos A; Mena, Carlos F

2018-01-01

Though malaria control initiatives have markedly reduced malaria prevalence in recent decades, global eradication is far from actuality. Recent studies show that environmental and social heterogeneities in low-transmission settings have an increased weight in shaping malaria micro-epidemiology. New integrated and more localized control strategies should be developed and tested. Here we present a set of agent-based models designed to study the influence of local scale human movements on local scale malaria transmission in a typical Amazon environment, where malaria is transmission is low and strongly connected with seasonal riverine flooding. The agent-based simulations show that the overall malaria incidence is essentially not influenced by local scale human movements. In contrast, the locations of malaria high risk spatial hotspots heavily depend on human movements because simulated malaria hotspots are mainly centered on farms, were laborers work during the day. The agent-based models are then used to test the effectiveness of two different malaria control strategies both designed to reduce local scale malaria incidence by targeting hotspots. The first control scenario consists in treat against mosquito bites people that, during the simulation, enter at least once inside hotspots revealed considering the actual sites where human individuals were infected. The second scenario involves the treatment of people entering in hotspots calculated assuming that the infection sites of every infected individual is located in the household where the individual lives. Simulations show that both considered scenarios perform better in controlling malaria than a randomized treatment, although targeting household hotspots shows slightly better performance.

Two alternative solar energy scenarios for Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakicenovic, N.

1982-11-01

Two limiting scenarios that lead to a sustainable energy system in Western Europe toward the end of the next century are described. The scenarios consider exclusively solar energy futures: one based on centralized solar technologies (hard scenario) and the other on decentralized user-oriented technologies (soft scenario). While both scenarios eliminate Western Europe's dependence on domestic and foreign fossil energy sources, the hard solar scenario requires substantial imports of solar produced hydrogen. Fundamental but different changes of the whole energy system, economic structure and lifestyles are necessary in order to achieve sustainable solar energy futures in the scenarios.

Flood hazard assessment for french NPPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rebour, Vincent; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Guimier, Laurent

2015-04-01

This paper presents the approach for flood hazard assessment for NPP which is on-going in France in the framework of post-Fukushima activities. These activities were initially defined considering both European "stress tests" of NPPs pursuant to the request of the European Council, and the French safety audit of civilian nuclear facilities in the light of the Fukushima Daiichi accident. The main actors in that process are the utility (EDF is, up to date, the unique NPP's operator in France), the regulatory authority (ASN) and its technical support organization (IRSN). This paper was prepared by IRSN, considering official positions of the other main actors in the current review process, it was not officially endorsed by them. In France, flood hazard to be considered for design basis definition (for new NPPs and for existing NPPs in periodic safety reviews conducted every 10 years) was revised before Fukushima-Daichi accident, due to le Blayais NPP December 1999 experience (partial site flooding and loss of some safety classified systems). The paper presents in the first part an overview of the revised guidance for design basis flood. In order to address design extension conditions (conditions that could result from natural events exceeding the design basis events), a set of flooding scenarios have been defined by adding margins on the scenarios that are considered for the design. Due to the diversity of phenomena to be considered for flooding hazard, the margin assessment is specific to each flooding scenario in terms of parameter to be penalized and of degree of variation of this parameter. The general approach to address design extension conditions is presented in the second part of the paper. The next parts present the approach for five flooding scenarios including design basis scenario and additional margin to define design extension scenarios.

To be involved or not to be involved: a survey of public preferences for self-involvement in decision-making involving mental capacity (competency) within Europe.

PubMed

Daveson, Barbara A; Bausewein, Claudia; Murtagh, Fliss E M; Calanzani, Natalia; Higginson, Irene J; Harding, Richard; Cohen, Joachim; Simon, Steffen T; Deliens, Luc; Bechinger-English, Dorothee; Hall, Sue; Koffman, Jonathan; Ferreira, Pedro Lopes; Toscani, Franco; Gysels, Marjolein; Ceulemans, Lucas; Haugen, Dagny F; Gomes, Barbara

2013-05-01

The Council of Europe has recommended that member states of European Union encourage their citizens to make decisions about their healthcare before they lose capacity to do so. However, it is unclear whether the public wants to make such decisions beforehand. To examine public preferences for self-involvement in end-of-life care decision-making and identify associated factors. A population-based survey with 9344 adults in England, Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. Across countries, 74% preferred self-involvement when capable; 44% preferred self-involvement when incapable through, for example, a living will. Four factors were associated with a preference for self-involvement across capacity and incapacity scenarios, respectively: higher educational attainment ((odds ratio = 1.93-2.77), (odds ratio = 1.33-1.80)); female gender ((odds ratio = 1.27, 95% confidence interval = 1.14-1.41), (odds ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 1.20-1.42)); younger-middle age ((30-59 years: odds ratio = 1.24-1.40), (50-59 years: odds ratio = 1.23, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.46)) and valuing quality over quantity of life or valuing both equally ((odds ratio = 1.49-1.58), (odds ratio = 1.35-1.53)). Those with increased financial hardship (odds ratio = 0.64-0.83) and a preference to die in hospital (not a palliative care unit) (odds ratio = 0.73, 95% confidence interval = 0.60-0.88), a nursing home or residential care (odds ratio = 0.73, 95% confidence interval = 0.54-0.99) were less likely to prefer self-involvement when capable. For the incapacity scenario, single people were more likely to prefer self-involvement (odds ratio = 1.34, 95% confidence interval = 1.18-1.53). Self-involvement in decision-making is important to the European public. However, a large proportion of the public prefer to not make decisions about their care in advance of incapacity. Financial hardship, educational attainment, age, and preferences regarding quality and quantity of life require further examination; these factors should be considered in relation to policy.

Inferring population history with DIY ABC: a user-friendly approach to approximate Bayesian computation

PubMed Central

Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Santos, Filipe; Beaumont, Mark A.; Robert, Christian P.; Marin, Jean-Michel; Balding, David J.; Guillemaud, Thomas; Estoup, Arnaud

2008-01-01

Summary: Genetic data obtained on population samples convey information about their evolutionary history. Inference methods can extract part of this information but they require sophisticated statistical techniques that have been made available to the biologist community (through computer programs) only for simple and standard situations typically involving a small number of samples. We propose here a computer program (DIY ABC) for inference based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), in which scenarios can be customized by the user to fit many complex situations involving any number of populations and samples. Such scenarios involve any combination of population divergences, admixtures and population size changes. DIY ABC can be used to compare competing scenarios, estimate parameters for one or more scenarios and compute bias and precision measures for a given scenario and known values of parameters (the current version applies to unlinked microsatellite data). This article describes key methods used in the program and provides its main features. The analysis of one simulated and one real dataset, both with complex evolutionary scenarios, illustrates the main possibilities of DIY ABC. Availability: The software DIY ABC is freely available at http://www.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc. Contact: j.cornuet@imperial.ac.uk Supplementary information: Supplementary data are also available at http://www.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc PMID:18842597

Water-supply potential of major streams and the Upper Floridan Aquifer in the vicinity of Savannah, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garza, Reggina; Krause, Richard E.

1997-01-01

Surface- and ground-water resources in the Savannah, Georgia, area were evaluated for potential water-supply development. Stream-discharge and water-quality data were analyzed for two major streams considered to be viable water-supply sources. A ground-water flow model was developed to be used in conjunction with other previously calibrated models to simulate the effects of additional pumpage on water levels near areas of saltwater intrusion at Brunswick and seawater encroachment at Hilton Head Island. Hypothetical scenarios also were simulated involving redistributions and small increases, and decreases in pumpage.

Autonomous precision landing using terrain-following navigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaughan, R. M.; Gaskell, R. W.; Halamek, P.; Klumpp, A. R.; Synnott, S. P.

1991-01-01

Terrain-following navigation studies that have been done over the past two years in the navigation system section at JPL are described. A descent to Mars scenario based on Mars Rover and Sample Return mission profiles is described, and navigation and image processing issues pertaining to descent phases where landmark picture can be obtained are examined. A covariance analysis is performed to verify that landmark measurements from a terrain-following navigation system can satisfy precision landing requirements. Image processing problems involving known landmarks in actual pictures are considered. Mission design alternatives that can alleviate some of these problems are suggested.

Transportation Energy Futures: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brogan, J. J.; Aeppli, A. E.; Brown, D. F.

2013-03-01

Freight transportation modes—truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline—each serve a distinct share of the freight transportation market. A variety of factors influence the modes chosen by shippers, carriers, and others involved in freight supply chains. Analytical methods can be used to project future modal shares, and federal policy actions could influence future freight mode choices. This report considers how these topics have been addressed in existing literature and offers insights on federal policy decisions with the potential to prompt mode choices that reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

The origin of ultra-compact binaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hachisu, Izumi; Miyaji, Shigeki; Saio, Hideyuki

1987-01-01

The origin of ultra-compact binaries composed of a neutron star and a low-mass (about 0.06 solar mass) white dwarf is considered. Taking account of the systemic losses of mass and angular momentum, it was found that a serious difficulty exists in the scenarios which involve tidal captures of a normal star (a main sequence star or a red giant) by a neutron star. This difficulty can be avoided if a red giant star is captured by a massive white dwarf (M is approx. greater than 1.2 solar masses), which becomes a neutron star through the accretion induced collapse.

Development of a computer program to generate typical measurement values for various systems on a space station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deacetis, Louis A.

1987-01-01

The elements of a simulation program written in Ada were developed. The program will eventually serve as a data generator of typical readings from various space station equipment involved with Communications and Tracking, and will simulate various scenarios that may arise due to equipment malfunction or failure, power failure, etc. In addition, an evaluation of the Ada language was made from the viewpoint of a FORTRAN programmer learning Ada for the first time. Various strengths and difficulties associated with the learning and use of Ada are considered.

Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

2018-01-01

Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators: Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators

DOE PAGES

Staid, Andrea; Watson, Jean -Paul; Wets, Roger J. -B.; ...

2017-07-11

Forecasts of available wind power are critical in key electric power systems operations planning problems, including economic dispatch and unit commitment. Such forecasts are necessarily uncertain, limiting the reliability and cost effectiveness of operations planning models based on a single deterministic or “point” forecast. A common approach to address this limitation involves the use of a number of probabilistic scenarios, each specifying a possible trajectory of wind power production, with associated probability. We present and analyze a novel method for generating probabilistic wind power scenarios, leveraging available historical information in the form of forecasted and corresponding observed wind power timemore » series. We estimate non-parametric forecast error densities, specifically using epi-spline basis functions, allowing us to capture the skewed and non-parametric nature of error densities observed in real-world data. We then describe a method to generate probabilistic scenarios from these basis functions that allows users to control for the degree to which extreme errors are captured.We compare the performance of our approach to the current state-of-the-art considering publicly available data associated with the Bonneville Power Administration, analyzing aggregate production of a number of wind farms over a large geographic region. Finally, we discuss the advantages of our approach in the context of specific power systems operations planning problems: stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch. Here, our methodology is embodied in the joint Sandia – University of California Davis Prescient software package for assessing and analyzing stochastic operations strategies.« less

Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators: Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Staid, Andrea; Watson, Jean -Paul; Wets, Roger J. -B.

Forecasts of available wind power are critical in key electric power systems operations planning problems, including economic dispatch and unit commitment. Such forecasts are necessarily uncertain, limiting the reliability and cost effectiveness of operations planning models based on a single deterministic or “point” forecast. A common approach to address this limitation involves the use of a number of probabilistic scenarios, each specifying a possible trajectory of wind power production, with associated probability. We present and analyze a novel method for generating probabilistic wind power scenarios, leveraging available historical information in the form of forecasted and corresponding observed wind power timemore » series. We estimate non-parametric forecast error densities, specifically using epi-spline basis functions, allowing us to capture the skewed and non-parametric nature of error densities observed in real-world data. We then describe a method to generate probabilistic scenarios from these basis functions that allows users to control for the degree to which extreme errors are captured.We compare the performance of our approach to the current state-of-the-art considering publicly available data associated with the Bonneville Power Administration, analyzing aggregate production of a number of wind farms over a large geographic region. Finally, we discuss the advantages of our approach in the context of specific power systems operations planning problems: stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch. Here, our methodology is embodied in the joint Sandia – University of California Davis Prescient software package for assessing and analyzing stochastic operations strategies.« less

Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

PubMed

Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

2015-07-01

This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Inadvertent Intruder Calculatios for F Tank Farm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koffman, L

2005-09-12

Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has been providing radiological performance assessment analysis for Savannah River Site (SRS) solid waste disposal facilities (McDowell-Boyer 2000). The performance assessment considers numerous potential exposure pathways that could occur in the future. One set of exposure scenarios, known as inadvertent intruder analysis, considers the impact on hypothetical individuals who are assumed to inadvertently intrude onto the waste disposal site. An Automated Intruder Analysis application was developed by SRNL (Koffman 2004) that simplifies the inadvertent intruder analysis into a routine, automated calculation. Based on SRNL's experience, personnel from Planning Integration & Technology of Closure Business Unitmore » asked SRNL to assist with inadvertent intruder calculations for F Tank Farm to support the development of the Tank Closure Waste Determination Document. Meetings were held to discuss the scenarios to be calculated and the assumptions to be used in the calculations. As a result of the meetings, SRNL was asked to perform four scenario calculations. Two of the scenarios are the same as those calculated by the Automated Intruder Analysis application and these can be calculated directly by providing appropriate inputs. The other two scenarios involve use of groundwater by the intruder and the Automated Intruder Analysis application was adapted to perform these calculations. The four calculations to be performed are: (1) A post-drilling scenario in which the drilling penetrates a transfer line. (2) A calculation of internal exposure due to drinking water from a well located near a waste tank. (3) A post-drilling calculation in which waste is introduced by irrigation of the garden with water from a well located near a waste tank. (4) A resident scenario where a house is built above transfer lines. Note that calculations 1 and 4 use sources from the waste inventory in the transfer line (given in Table 1) whereas calculations 2 and 3 use sources from groundwater beneath the waste tank (given in Appendix B). It is important to recognize that there are two different sources in the calculations. In these calculations, assumptions are made for parameter values. Three key parameters are the size of the garden, the amount of vegetables eaten, and the distance of the well from the waste tank. For these three parameters, different values are considered in the calculations to determine the impact of the change in these parameters. Another key parameter is the length of time of institutional control, which determines when an inadvertent intruder could first be exposed. The standard length of time for institutional control is 100 years from the time of closure. In this analysis, waste inventory values are used from year 2005 but tanks will not be closed until year 2020. Thus, the effective length of time of institutional control used in the calculations is 115 years from year 2005, which is taken to be time zero for radiological decay calculations. All calculations are carried out for a period of 10,000 years.« less

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Important Parameters of Nitrogen Nitrification and Denitrification under Model and Scenario Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Chen, Z.; Shi, L.; Zhu, Y.; Yang, J.

2017-12-01

Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. While global sensitivity analysis is a vital tool for identifying the parameters important to nitrogen reactive transport, conventional global sensitivity analysis only considers parametric uncertainty. This may result in inaccurate selection of important parameters, because parameter importance may vary under different models and modeling scenarios. By using a recently developed variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters with simultaneous consideration of parametric uncertainty, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. In a numerical example of nitrogen reactive transport modeling, a combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture leads to a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models are used to evaluate reduction functions used for calculating actual rates of nitrification and denitrification. The model uncertainty is tangled with scenario uncertainty, as the reduction functions depend on soil temperature and moisture content. The results of sensitivity analysis show that parameter importance varies substantially between different models and modeling scenarios, which may lead to inaccurate selection of important parameters if model and scenario uncertainties are not considered. This problem is avoided by using the new method of sensitivity analysis in the context of model averaging and scenario averaging. The new method of sensitivity analysis can be applied to other problems of contaminant transport modeling when model uncertainty and/or scenario uncertainty are present.

Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

PubMed Central

Johnson, Fred A.

2017-01-01

Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management implications and extensions. PMID:28800591

Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2017-01-01

Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management implications and extensions.

Conservation planning for offsetting the impacts of development: a case study of biodiversity and renewable energy in the Mojave Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kreitler, Jason R.; Schloss, Carrie A.; Soong, Oliver; Lee Hannah,; Davis, Frank W.

2015-01-01

Balancing society’s competing needs of development and conservation requires careful consideration of tradeoffs. Renewable energy development and biodiversity conservation are often considered beneficial environmental goals. The direct footprint and disturbance of renewable energy, however, can displace species’ habitat and negatively impact populations and natural communities if sited without ecological consideration. Offsets have emerged as a potentially useful tool to mitigate residual impacts after trying to avoid, minimize, or restore affected sites. Yet the problem of efficiently designing a set of offset sites becomes increasingly complex where many species or many sites are involved. Spatial conservation prioritization tools are designed to handle this problem, but have seen little application to offset siting and analysis. To address this need we designed an offset siting support tool for the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) of California, and present a case study of hypothetical impacts from solar development in the Western Mojave subsection. We compare two offset scenarios designed to mitigate a hypothetical 15,331 ha derived from proposed utility-scale solar energy development (USSED) projects. The first scenario prioritizes offsets based precisely on impacted features, while the second scenario offsets impacts to maximize biodiversity conservation gains in the region. The two methods only agree on 28% of their prioritized sites and differ in meeting species-specific offset goals. Differences between the two scenarios highlight the importance of clearly specifying choices and priorities for offset siting and mitigation in general. Similarly, the effects of background climate and land use change may lessen the durability or effectiveness of offsets if not considered. Our offset siting support tool was designed specifically for the DRECP area, but with minor code modification could work well in other offset analyses, and could provide continuing support for a potentially innovative mitigation solution to environmental impacts.

Conservation Planning for Offsetting the Impacts of Development: A Case Study of Biodiversity and Renewable Energy in the Mojave Desert.

PubMed

Kreitler, Jason; Schloss, Carrie A; Soong, Oliver; Hannah, Lee; Davis, Frank W

2015-01-01

Balancing society's competing needs of development and conservation requires careful consideration of tradeoffs. Renewable energy development and biodiversity conservation are often considered beneficial environmental goals. The direct footprint and disturbance of renewable energy, however, can displace species' habitat and negatively impact populations and natural communities if sited without ecological consideration. Offsets have emerged as a potentially useful tool to mitigate residual impacts after trying to avoid, minimize, or restore affected sites. Yet the problem of efficiently designing a set of offset sites becomes increasingly complex where many species or many sites are involved. Spatial conservation prioritization tools are designed to handle this problem, but have seen little application to offset siting and analysis. To address this need we designed an offset siting support tool for the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) of California, and present a case study of hypothetical impacts from solar development in the Western Mojave subsection. We compare two offset scenarios designed to mitigate a hypothetical 15,331 ha derived from proposed utility-scale solar energy development (USSED) projects. The first scenario prioritizes offsets based precisely on impacted features, while the second scenario offsets impacts to maximize biodiversity conservation gains in the region. The two methods only agree on 28% of their prioritized sites and differ in meeting species-specific offset goals. Differences between the two scenarios highlight the importance of clearly specifying choices and priorities for offset siting and mitigation in general. Similarly, the effects of background climate and land use change may lessen the durability or effectiveness of offsets if not considered. Our offset siting support tool was designed specifically for the DRECP area, but with minor code modification could work well in other offset analyses, and could provide continuing support for a potentially innovative mitigation solution to environmental impacts.

Conservation Planning for Offsetting the Impacts of Development: A Case Study of Biodiversity and Renewable Energy in the Mojave Desert

PubMed Central

Kreitler, Jason; Schloss, Carrie A.; Soong, Oliver; Hannah, Lee; Davis, Frank W.

2015-01-01

Balancing society’s competing needs of development and conservation requires careful consideration of tradeoffs. Renewable energy development and biodiversity conservation are often considered beneficial environmental goals. The direct footprint and disturbance of renewable energy, however, can displace species’ habitat and negatively impact populations and natural communities if sited without ecological consideration. Offsets have emerged as a potentially useful tool to mitigate residual impacts after trying to avoid, minimize, or restore affected sites. Yet the problem of efficiently designing a set of offset sites becomes increasingly complex where many species or many sites are involved. Spatial conservation prioritization tools are designed to handle this problem, but have seen little application to offset siting and analysis. To address this need we designed an offset siting support tool for the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) of California, and present a case study of hypothetical impacts from solar development in the Western Mojave subsection. We compare two offset scenarios designed to mitigate a hypothetical 15,331 ha derived from proposed utility-scale solar energy development (USSED) projects. The first scenario prioritizes offsets based precisely on impacted features, while the second scenario offsets impacts to maximize biodiversity conservation gains in the region. The two methods only agree on 28% of their prioritized sites and differ in meeting species-specific offset goals. Differences between the two scenarios highlight the importance of clearly specifying choices and priorities for offset siting and mitigation in general. Similarly, the effects of background climate and land use change may lessen the durability or effectiveness of offsets if not considered. Our offset siting support tool was designed specifically for the DRECP area, but with minor code modification could work well in other offset analyses, and could provide continuing support for a potentially innovative mitigation solution to environmental impacts. PMID:26529595

An entropy-based analysis of lane changing behavior: An interactive approach.

PubMed

Kosun, Caglar; Ozdemir, Serhan

2017-05-19

As a novelty, this article proposes the nonadditive entropy framework for the description of driver behaviors during lane changing. The authors also state that this entropy framework governs the lane changing behavior in traffic flow in accordance with the long-range vehicular interactions and traffic safety. The nonadditive entropy framework is the new generalized theory of thermostatistical mechanics. Vehicular interactions during lane changing are considered within this framework. The interactive approach for the lane changing behavior of the drivers is presented in the traffic flow scenarios presented in the article. According to the traffic flow scenarios, 4 categories of traffic flow and driver behaviors are obtained. Through the scenarios, comparative analyses of nonadditive and additive entropy domains are also provided. Two quadrants of the categories belong to the nonadditive entropy; the rest are involved in the additive entropy domain. Driving behaviors are extracted and the scenarios depict that nonadditivity matches safe driving well, whereas additivity corresponds to unsafe driving. Furthermore, the cooperative traffic system is considered in nonadditivity where the long-range interactions are present. However, the uncooperative traffic system falls into the additivity domain. The analyses also state that there would be possible traffic flow transitions among the quadrants. This article shows that lane changing behavior could be generalized as nonadditive, with additivity as a special case, based on the given traffic conditions. The nearest and close neighbor models are well within the conventional additive entropy framework. In this article, both the long-range vehicular interactions and safe driving behavior in traffic are handled in the nonadditive entropy domain. It is also inferred that the Tsallis entropy region would correspond to mandatory lane changing behavior, whereas additive and either the extensive or nonextensive entropy region would match discretionary lane changing behavior. This article states that driver behaviors would be in the nonadditive entropy domain to provide a safe traffic stream and hence with vehicle accident prevention in mind.

Emissions from residential combustion considering end-uses and spatial constraints: Part II, emission reduction scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winijkul, Ekbordin; Bond, Tami C.

2016-01-01

Cooking, heating, and other activities in the residential sector are major sources of indoor and outdoor air pollution, especially when solid fuels are used to provide energy. Because of their deleterious effects on the atmosphere and human health, multinational strategies to reduce emissions have been proposed. This study examines the effects of some possible policies, considering realistic factors that constrain mitigation: end-uses, spatial constraints involving proximity to forest or electricity, existing technology, and assumptions about user behavior. Reduction scenarios are applied to a year-2010, spatially distributed baseline of emissions of particulate matter, black carbon, organic carbon, nitrogen oxides, methane, non-methane hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. Scenarios explored are: (1) cleanest current stove, where we assume that existing technology in each land type is applied to burn existing fuels; (2) stove standards, where we assume that stoves are designed to meet performance standards; and (3) clean fuels, where users adopt the cleanest fuels plausible in each land type. We assume that people living in forest access areas continue to use wood regardless of available fuels, so the clean-fuels scenario leads to a reduction in emissions of 18-25%, depending on the pollutant, across the study region. Cleaner stoves preferentially affect land types with forest access, where about half of the fuel is used; emission reductions range from 25 to 82%, depending on the pollutant. If stove performance standards can be met, particulate matter emissions are reduced by 62% for the loosest standards and 95% for the tightest standards, and carbon monoxide is reduced by 40% and 62% for the loosest and tightest standards. Reductions in specific regions and countries depend on the existing fuel mixture and the population division among land types, and are explored for Latin America, Africa, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.

Risk-based decision making for staggered bioterrorist attacks : resource allocation and risk reduction in "reload" scenarios.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lemaster, Michelle Nicole; Gay, David M.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew

2009-10-01

Staggered bioterrorist attacks with aerosolized pathogens on population centers present a formidable challenge to resource allocation and response planning. The response and planning will commence immediately after the detection of the first attack and with no or little information of the second attack. In this report, we outline a method by which resource allocation may be performed. It involves probabilistic reconstruction of the bioterrorist attack from partial observations of the outbreak, followed by an optimization-under-uncertainty approach to perform resource allocations. We consider both single-site and time-staggered multi-site attacks (i.e., a reload scenario) under conditions when resources (personnel and equipment whichmore » are difficult to gather and transport) are insufficient. Both communicable (plague) and non-communicable diseases (anthrax) are addressed, and we also consider cases when the data, the time-series of people reporting with symptoms, are confounded with a reporting delay. We demonstrate how our approach develops allocations profiles that have the potential to reduce the probability of an extremely adverse outcome in exchange for a more certain, but less adverse outcome. We explore the effect of placing limits on daily allocations. Further, since our method is data-driven, the resource allocation progressively improves as more data becomes available.« less

Community resilience assessment and literature analysis.

PubMed

Weiner, John M; Walsh, John J

2015-01-01

Earlier and current disaster-related research emphasised the sociological/behavioural perspective. This led to a significant amount of literature devoted to descriptive context of natural, man-made and technological disasters and sequelae. This paper considers a next step involving a more expanded approach in research methodology. The phases include: (1) the development of a comprehensive database of ideas provided by authors of scholarly and scientific papers; (2) the development of computer-supported algorithms to prepare an array of scenarios representing relationships, gaps and inconsistencies in existing knowledge; (3) a process for evaluating the scenarios to determine a feasible and interesting next research strategy or programmatic action that will provide enhanced description of the problems as well as possible insights to their correction by interventions. The intent is to develop interventions as an essential component for better prevention, mitigation, rehabilitation, reconstruction and problem-solving affected by disaster events. To illustrate this approach, community resilience, a relatively new and important idea was studied. The phrase was used to describe relationships and omissions. The ideas associated with this central idea were considered in the building of a new instrument for evaluation of community vulnerability and readiness. This methodology addresses the time constraints realised by practitioners and investigators. The methods should eliminate tedious, clerical functions and focus on the intellectual functions representing optimal use of human energy.

Scenario Planning for Water Resources: a Forward-looking Approach Combining Science, Demographic Trends and Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, F.; Thorsten, W.

2007-12-01

Although there has been much written about the use of scenario analysis for long-term planning, particularly with respect to the decisions facing firms, the extant literature has few examples of scenarios explicitly applied to water resource issues. Fewer still have considered short-fuse events such as floods and failure of water retention and conveyance structures in the context of longer-term scenarios for water resources planning. We report progress on an effort to develop a unified framework for constructing scenarios for water resource management. We place particular emphasis on semi-arid environments and forces external to the traditional water management process such as high-impact weather and climate events or unforeseen changes in government institutions that may drive unanticipated change in environmental systems. Most water resource scenarios are typically based on high, medium and low projections of demographics (gpcd), climate (precipitation, temperature), and perhaps institutional variables (conveyance infrastructure, legal issues). We discuss the relative merits of this with other approaches including: probabalistic scenarios, which explicitly weight the likelihood of different outcomes; anticipatory scenarios, which consider how to achieve or avoid some subjective future state; strategic scenarios, which seeks to identify the inconsistencies between disciplines in the way the environmental models are constructed

Integrating multi-criteria evaluation techniques with geographic information systems for landfill site selection: a case study using ordered weighted average.

PubMed

Gorsevski, Pece V; Donevska, Katerina R; Mitrovski, Cvetko D; Frizado, Joseph P

2012-02-01

This paper presents a GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis approach for evaluating the suitability for landfill site selection in the Polog Region, Macedonia. The multi-criteria decision framework considers environmental and economic factors which are standardized by fuzzy membership functions and combined by integration of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and ordered weighted average (OWA) techniques. The AHP is used for the elicitation of attribute weights while the OWA operator function is used to generate a wide range of decision alternatives for addressing uncertainty associated with interaction between multiple criteria. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated by different OWA scenarios that report landfill suitability on a scale between 0 and 1. The OWA scenarios are intended to quantify the level of risk taking (i.e., optimistic, pessimistic, and neutral) and to facilitate a better understanding of patterns that emerge from decision alternatives involved in the decision making process. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Considerations for Architecture Level Trade Studies for Environmental Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, Craig

2010-01-01

Comparisons of key characteristics of environmental sensors such as technology readiness levels, mass, power, volume, and detection capabilities are essential for initial trade studies to determine likely candidates for further development and evaluation. However, these trade studies only provide part of the information necessary to make selection decisions. Ultimately, the sensors must be judged based on the overall system architectures and operational scenarios for which they are intended. This means that additional characteristics, such as architectural needs for redundancy, operational lifetime, ability to maintain calibration, and repair and replacement strategies, among others, must also be considered. Given that these characteristics can be extremely time-consuming and costly to obtain, careful planning is essential to minimize the effort involved. In this paper, an approach is explored for determining an effective yet comprehensive set of architecture level trades which is minimally impacted by the inevitable changes in operational (mission) scenarios. The approach will also identify and integrate the various facilities and opportunities required to obtain the desired architecture level trade information.

Temporal aspects in the development of a cascading-event crisis scenario: A pilot demonstration of the CRISMA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubrecht, Christoph; Almeida, Miguel; Polese, Maria; Reva, Valeria; Steinnocher, Klaus; Zuccaro, Giulio

2013-04-01

In this abstract we illustrate the various temporal aspects to be considered in a multi-hazard crisis scenario set up as pilot study in the EU-FP7 Integrated Project CRISMA. In the framework of CRISMA a simulation-based decision support system for crisis management is developed facilitating the modeling of realistic crisis scenarios, related pre-event vulnerabilities, as well as possible response actions and associated varying potential impacts on society. Both external factors driving crisis development and actions of the involved crisis management team are considered in the system setup. The presented case is a complex cascading-event crisis scenario that is initiated by an earthquake causing building collapse and a consequent gas pipeline failure that triggers a follow-up fire in a nearby forest with potential to spread and endangering a village of the neighborhood. In terms of the hazard components, major earthquakes are rapid-onset events that can occur at any time without warning while fires are rather slow-progressing hazards usually allowing a certain lead time for preparations. In our scenario, which is based on the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Italy, a series of low-magnitude events preceding the main shock over a few months increases population awareness and at the same time brings disaster managers to assess risks and evaluate evacuation options already in the pre-disaster phase. This seismic swarm and the associated period of increased general awareness thus add an additional temporal component to the scenario, initiating response considerations earlier as when compared to a single shock scenario. In addition, the seismic vulnerability of buildings may increase due to damage accumulation, with higher probability of collapse at a given earthquake intensity. With regard to best possible impact mitigation, detailed spatio-temporal exposure and vulnerability characteristics of population and associated assets have to be analyzed for all crisis stages including consideration of full-evacuation and no-evacuation scenario options. Short and medium-term exposure patterns such as hourly, daily, weekly, and seasonal variations provide the starting point information for evacuation planning, i.e. exact numbers of people at risk and estimates for sheltering requirements. Inherent hazard-specific vulnerabilities determine people with special needs who are considered high priority during evacuation. The nature of a cascading event also implies that alerting actions have to be adapted to changing conditions as people are already generally aware of the crisis situation after the earlier earthquake warning, but at the same time need to be continuously updated on relevant changes. Fires do for example often entail strong smoke development which can pose serious threat to people exposed (i.e., intoxication). In areas with reinforced concrete or masonry buildings (like in most Mediterranean countries) it is then usually advised to stay inside the houses in order to avoid getting trapped in smoke immersions in the streets. However, in a multi-hazard scenario involving potential earthquake-caused building damage, it might be decided to rather initiate full and particularly fast evacuation of the threatened area, because general building safety is no longer guaranteed and preparation time is very limited. Evacuation might then respectively be further hindered by blocked roads due to damaged infrastructure or presence of debris from collapsed buildings as well as by the progressing fire and smoke-induced reduced visibility, all also causing further panic in the population. One particular aspect of the occurrence of cascading effects is the accumulated stress that it causes to crisis management, i.e. in a sense that the fire event must be responded to when all the civil protection resources are already dedicated to addressing the seismic consequences. Coming back to the reference event of the presented scenario, the 2009 L'Aquila EQ, in that case a few days before the main shock it was decided by the responsible assessment team not to evacuate. There was a lack of supportive instruments and tools enabling the comparison of the effects of different measures, thus it was basically counted on the very low probability of a large shock to follow a swarm of small seismic events. The CRISMA system is designed and supposed to fill in this gap and provide effective and comprehensive decision support for crisis management and impact mitigation by integrating alternative-scenario simulation. Thereby also the efficiency of distribution of civil protection resources and means to simultaneously fight multiple hazard events will be analyzed.

Geometric and Optic Characterization of a Hemispherical Dome Port for Underwater Photogrammetry

PubMed Central

Menna, Fabio; Nocerino, Erica; Fassi, Francesco; Remondino, Fabio

2016-01-01

The popularity of automatic photogrammetric techniques has promoted many experiments in underwater scenarios leading to quite impressive visual results, even by non-experts. Despite these achievements, a deep understanding of camera and lens behaviors as well as optical phenomena involved in underwater operations is fundamental to better plan field campaigns and anticipate the achievable results. The paper presents a geometric investigation of a consumer grade underwater camera housing, manufactured by NiMAR and equipped with a 7′′ dome port. After a review of flat and dome ports, the work analyzes, using simulations and real experiments, the main optical phenomena involved when operating a camera underwater. Specific aspects which deal with photogrammetric acquisitions are considered with some tests in laboratory and in a swimming pool. Results and considerations are shown and commented. PMID:26729133

Scenarios and decisionmaking for complex environmental systems

Treesearch

Stephen R. Carpenter; Adena R. Rissman

2012-01-01

Scenarios are used for expanding the scope of imaginable outcomes considered by assessments, planning exercises, or research projects on social-ecological systems. We discuss a global case study, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and a regional project for an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenarios are complementary....

Risk-based maintenance of ethylene oxide production facilities.

PubMed

Khan, Faisal I; Haddara, Mahmoud R

2004-05-20

This paper discusses a methodology for the design of an optimum inspection and maintenance program. The methodology, called risk-based maintenance (RBM) is based on integrating a reliability approach and a risk assessment strategy to obtain an optimum maintenance schedule. First, the likely equipment failure scenarios are formulated. Out of many likely failure scenarios, the ones, which are most probable, are subjected to a detailed study. Detailed consequence analysis is done for the selected scenarios. Subsequently, these failure scenarios are subjected to a fault tree analysis to determine their probabilities. Finally, risk is computed by combining the results of the consequence and the probability analyses. The calculated risk is compared against known acceptable criteria. The frequencies of the maintenance tasks are obtained by minimizing the estimated risk. A case study involving an ethylene oxide production facility is presented. Out of the five most hazardous units considered, the pipeline used for the transportation of the ethylene is found to have the highest risk. Using available failure data and a lognormal reliability distribution function human health risk factors are calculated. Both societal risk factors and individual risk factors exceeded the acceptable risk criteria. To determine an optimal maintenance interval, a reverse fault tree analysis was used. The maintenance interval was determined such that the original high risk is brought down to an acceptable level. A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken to study the impact of changing the distribution of the reliability model as well as the error in the distribution parameters on the maintenance interval.

Life cycle GHG emissions of sewage sludge treatment and disposal options in Tai Lake Watershed, China.

PubMed

Liu, Beibei; Wei, Qi; Zhang, Bing; Bi, Jun

2013-03-01

The treatment and disposal of sewage sludge generate considerable amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and pose environmental and economic challenges to wastewater treatment in China. To achieve a more informed and sustainable sludge management, this study conducts a life cycle inventory to investigate the GHG performances of six scenarios involving various sludge treatment technologies and disposal strategies. These scenarios are landfilling (S1), mono-incineration (S2), co-incineration (S3), brick manufacturing (S4), cement manufacturing (S5), and fertilizer for urban greening (S6). In terms of GHG emissions, S2 demonstrates the best performance with its large offset from sludge incineration energy recovery, followed by S4 and S6, whereas S1 demonstrates the poorest performance primarily because of its large quantity of methane leaks. The scenario rankings are affected by the assumptions of GHG offset calculation. In most scenarios, GHG performance could be improved by using waste gas or steam from existing facilities for drying sludge. Furthermore, considering the GHG performance along with economic, health, and other concerns, S6 is recommended. We thus suggest that local governments promote the use of composted sludge as urban greening fertilizers. In addition, the use of sludge with 60% water content, in place of the current standard of 80%, in wastewater treatment plants is proposed to be the new standard for Tai Lake Watershed in China. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing standardised treatment for adults with myositis and different phenotypes: an international survey of current prescribing preferences.

PubMed

Tansley, Sarah; Shaddick, Gavin; Christopher-Stine, Lisa; Sharp, Charlotte; Dourmishev, Lyubomir; Maurer, Britta; Chinoy, Hector; McHugh, Neil

2016-01-01

The evidence base for treatment of the idiopathic inflammatory myopathies is extremely limited. The rarity and heterogeneity of these diseases has hampered the development of good quality clinical trials and while a range of immunomodulatory treatments are commonly used in clinical practice, as yet there are no clear guidelines directing their use. We aimed to establish current prescribing regimens used to treat adults with myositis internationally. An electronic survey based on different clinical scenarios was distributed internationally to clinicians involved in the treatment of patients with myositis. Participants were asked to select their first-line treatment preferences in each situation. A multinomial regression analysis was used to assess the influence of clinical scenario, respondent expertise and country of origin on first-line treatment choice. 107 survey responses were received. 57% of respondents considered themselves an expert in myositis and the majority of respondents were rheumatologists although responses from other specialities were also received. Pharmacological treatment with steroids and additional immunotherapy was the preference in most scenarios. First-line immunosuppressant choice was significantly influenced by the clinical scenario, the expertise of the treating physician and country of practice. Azathioprine, methotrexate and mycophenolate mofetil were the most commonly chosen agents. In the absence of available evidence, clinical experience and expert consensus often forms the basis of treatment guidelines. These results suggest that an international consensus approach would be possible in myositis and would overcome an urgent, yet unmet need for patients suffering with this difficult disease.

Effects of alcohol on automated and controlled driving performances.

PubMed

Berthelon, Catherine; Gineyt, Guy

2014-05-01

Alcohol is the most frequently detected substance in fatal automobile crashes, but its precise mode of action is not always clear. The present study was designed to establish the influence of blood alcohol concentration as a function of the complexity of the scenarios. Road scenarios implying automatic or controlled driving performances were manipulated in order to identify which behavioral parameters were deteriorated. A single blind counterbalanced experiment was conducted on a driving simulator. Sixteen experienced drivers (25.3 ± 2.9 years old, 8 men and 8 women) were tested with 0, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.8 g/l of alcohol. Driving scenarios varied: road tracking, car following, and an urban scenario including events inspired by real accidents. Statistical analyses were performed on driving parameters as a function of alcohol level. Automated driving parameters such as standard deviation of lateral position measured with the road tracking and car following scenarios were impaired by alcohol, notably with the highest dose. More controlled parameters such as response time to braking and number of crashes when confronted with specific events (urban scenario) were less affected by the alcohol level. Performance decrement was greater with driving scenarios involving automated processes than with scenarios involving controlled processes.

Deterministic approach for multiple-source tsunami hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wronna, M.; Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.

2015-11-01

In this paper, we present a deterministic approach to tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal, one of the test sites of project ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe). Sines has one of the most important deep-water ports, which has oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid-bulk, coal, and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures face the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING, a Non-linear Shallow Water model wIth Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages: MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level), and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, the tsunami hazard is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, maximum inundation area and run-up. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at the Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario, and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite source of Horseshoe and Marques de Pombal faults as the worst-case scenario, with wave heights of over 10 m, which reach the coast approximately 22 min after the rupture. It dominates the aggregate scenario by about 60 % of the impact area at the test site, considering maximum wave height and maximum flow depth. The HSMPF scenario inundates a total area of 3.5 km2.

A new framework for quantifying uncertainties in modelling studies for future climates - how more certain are CMIP5 precipitation and temperature simulations compared to CMIP3?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sivakumar, B.; Mehrotra, R.

2014-12-01

We outline a new framework for assessing uncertainties in model simulations, be they hydro-ecological simulations for known scenarios, or climate simulations for assumed scenarios representing the future. This framework is illustrated here using GCM projections for future climates for hydrologically relevant variables (precipitation and temperature), with the uncertainty segregated into three dominant components - model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty (representing greenhouse gas emission scenarios), and ensemble uncertainty (representing uncertain initial conditions and states). A novel uncertainty metric, the Square Root Error Variance (SREV), is used to quantify the uncertainties involved. The SREV requires: (1) Interpolating raw and corrected GCM outputs to a common grid; (2) Converting these to percentiles; (3) Estimating SREV for model, scenario, initial condition and total uncertainty at each percentile; and (4) Transforming SREV to a time series. The outcome is a spatially varying series of SREVs associated with each model that can be used to assess how uncertain the system is at each simulated point or time. This framework, while illustrated in a climate change context, is completely applicable for assessment of uncertainties any modelling framework may be subject to. The proposed method is applied to monthly precipitation and temperature from 6 CMIP3 and 13 CMIP5 GCMs across the world. For CMIP3, B1, A1B and A2 scenarios whereas for CMIP5, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 representing low, medium and high emissions are considered. For both CMIP3 and CMIP5, model structure is the largest source of uncertainty, which reduces significantly after correcting for biases. Scenario uncertainly increases, especially for temperature, in future due to divergence of the three emission scenarios analysed. While CMIP5 precipitation simulations exhibit a small reduction in total uncertainty over CMIP3, there is almost no reduction observed for temperature projections. Estimation of uncertainty in both space and time sheds lights on the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainties in GCM outputs, providing an effective platform for risk-based assessments of any alternate plans or decisions that may be formulated using GCM simulations.

Participatory Scenario Planning for the Cienega Watershed: Embracing Uncertainty in Public Lands Management in the U.S. Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, H.; Morino, K.; Bodner, G.; Markstein, A.; McFarlin, S.

2013-12-01

Land managers and communities struggle to sustain natural landscapes and the benefits they provide--especially in an era of rapid and unpredictable changes being driven by shifts in climate and other drivers that are largely outside the control of local managers and residents. The Cienega Watershed Partnership (CWP) is a long-standing multi-agency partnership involved in managing lands and resources over about 700,000 acres in southeast Arizona, surrounding the Bureau of Land Management's Las Cienegas National Conservation Area. The region forms a vital wildlife corridor connecting the diverse ecosystems of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and grasslands with the Sierra Madrean and Rocky Mountain forests and woodlands. The CWP has long-standing forums and relationships for considering complex issues and novel approaches for management, including practical implementation of adaptive management, development of monitoring programs and protocols, and the use of nested objectives to adjust management targets. However, current plans have objectives and strategies based on what is known or likely to become known about natural and socio-cultural systems; they do not incorporate uncertainties related to rapid changes in climate or have well developed feedback mechanisms for routinely reconsidering climate information. Since 2011, more than 50 individuals from over 20 federal and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and private landowners have participated in scenario planning for the Cienega Watershed. Scenario planning is an important tool for (1) managing risks in the face of high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity; (2) integrating quantitative climate projections, trend and impact assessments, and local expertise to develop qualitative scenario narratives that can inform decisions even by simply provoking insights; and (3) engaging jurisdictions having different missions, objectives, and planning processes. Participants are helping to extend and refine participatory scenario planning methods from the development of regional qualitative narratives to (1) development of scenario narratives that are relevant at the local management level, (2) creation and evaluation of portfolios of management options that can accommodate changes in management objectives, connect to formal agency planning processes, and that can be adjusted as the future evolves, and (3) explicit identification of the data and information that link qualitative narratives to quantitative scenario and adaptation assessments, which can be used to drive the timing and implementation of activities within the adaptation portfolios, and to prioritize monitoring and research activities to resolve near-term uncertainties. Project tasks are structured around four resource teams that focus on their specific management concerns (Montane, Riparian, Upland and Cultural), but that come together periodically to consider interaction and conflict among their scenarios or prospective adaptation. Participants are finding that embracing uncertainty enables them to approach climate change with a sense of empowerment rather than a sense of reacting to crises, and they appreciate the methods and opportunities for thinking differently and crossing boundaries that the scenario planning exercises provide.

Measuring Engagement in Later Life Activities: Rasch-Based Scenario Scales for Work, Caregiving, Informal Helping, and Volunteering

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ludlow, Larry H.; Matz-Costa, Christina; Johnson, Clair; Brown, Melissa; Besen, Elyssa; James, Jacquelyn B.

2014-01-01

The development of Rasch-based "comparative engagement scenarios" based on Guttman's facet theory and sentence mapping procedures is described. The scenario scales measuring engagement in work, caregiving, informal helping, and volunteering illuminate the lived experiences of role involvement among older adults and offer multiple…

"What Line Will You Take with This Person?": Scenarios for Strategic Interaction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Docker, Julie

1990-01-01

Presents two-role scenarios involving persons with conflicting needs or interests to enhance foreign language students' strategic intervention language skills in realistic situations. The scenarios not only encourage students to think through strategies to resolve a problem or conflict but also use their language skills to communicate effectively…

Origin and evolution of two-component debris discs and an application to the q1 Eridani system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schüppler, Christian; Krivov, Alexander V.; Löhne, Torsten; Booth, Mark; Kirchschlager, Florian; Wolf, Sebastian

2016-09-01

Many debris discs reveal a two-component structure, with an outer Kuiper-belt analogue and a warm inner component whose origin is still a matter of debate. One possibility is that warm emission stems from an `asteroid belt' closer in to the star. We consider a scenario in which a set of giant planets is formed in an initially extended planetesimal disc. These planets carve a broad gap around their orbits, splitting up the disc into the outer and the inner belts. After the gas dispersal, both belts undergo collisional evolution in a steady-state regime. This scenario is explored with detailed collisional simulations involving realistic physics to describe a long-term collisional depletion of the two-component disc. We find that the inner disc may be able to retain larger amounts of material at older ages than thought before on the basis of simplified analytic models. We show that the proposed scenario is consistent with a suite of thermal emission and scattered light observational data for a bright two-temperature debris disc around a nearby solar-type star q1 Eridani. This implies a Solar system-like architecture of the system, with an outer massive `Kuiper belt', an inner `asteroid belt', and a few Neptune- to Jupiter-mass planets in between.

[Economic assessment in health and environment from control of persistent organic pollutants in Colombia].

PubMed

García-Ubaque, César A; García-Ubaque, Juan C; Vaca-Bohórquez, Martha L

2015-12-01

Objective To estimate the economic benefits related to environment and health in the context of the implementation of the Stockholm Convention for the control of Persistent Organic Pollutants in the country. The estimation was conducted based on two scenarios: non-compliance with the agreement and compliance with the Convention. Gross profit was derived from the difference in present value between the health and environmental costs that are assumed in each scenario. Results Gross profit by decreasing health costs arising from the implementation of the Convention was estimated at USD $ 511 and USD $ 501 million. By introducing variables such as management costs and agreement on potential benefits for access to international markets, the benefits to the country were estimated at between USD $1 631 and USD $ 3 118 million. Discussion Despite the economic benefits generated by lower expenditure on health for the Convention implementation, the costs associated with reducing pollutant emissions generated a negative balance, compensated only by the expectation of higher revenues for international market access. We consider this initial economic assessment an important contribution, but it should be reviewed to include valuation methodologies involving other social profitability variables and different scenarios for emerging technologies, new scientific knowledge about these pollutants, changes in legislation and / or changes in trade agreement conditions, among others.

The use of concept maps during knowledge elicitation in ontology development processes – the nutrigenomics use case

PubMed Central

Castro, Alexander Garcia; Rocca-Serra, Philippe; Stevens, Robert; Taylor, Chris; Nashar, Karim; Ragan, Mark A; Sansone, Susanna-Assunta

2006-01-01

Background Incorporation of ontologies into annotations has enabled 'semantic integration' of complex data, making explicit the knowledge within a certain field. One of the major bottlenecks in developing bio-ontologies is the lack of a unified methodology. Different methodologies have been proposed for different scenarios, but there is no agreed-upon standard methodology for building ontologies. The involvement of geographically distributed domain experts, the need for domain experts to lead the design process, the application of the ontologies and the life cycles of bio-ontologies are amongst the features not considered by previously proposed methodologies. Results Here, we present a methodology for developing ontologies within the biological domain. We describe our scenario, competency questions, results and milestones for each methodological stage. We introduce the use of concept maps during knowledge acquisition phases as a feasible transition between domain expert and knowledge engineer. Conclusion The contributions of this paper are the thorough description of the steps we suggest when building an ontology, example use of concept maps, consideration of applicability to the development of lower-level ontologies and application to decentralised environments. We have found that within our scenario conceptual maps played an important role in the development process. PMID:16725019

Black string corrections in variable tension braneworld scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Da Rocha, Roldão; Hoff da Silva, J. M.

2012-02-01

Braneworld models with variable tension are investigated, and the corrections on the black string horizon along the extra dimension are provided. Such corrections are encrypted in additional terms involving the covariant derivatives of the variable tension on the brane, providing profound consequences concerning the black string horizon variation along the extra dimension, near the brane. The black string horizon behavior is shown to be drastically modified by the terms corrected by the brane variable tension. In particular, a model motivated by the phenomenological interesting case regarding Eötvös branes is investigated. It forthwith provides further physical features regarding variable tension braneworld scenarios, heretofore concealed in all previous analysis in the literature. All precedent analysis considered uniquely the expansion of the metric up to the second order along the extra dimension, which is able to evince solely the brane variable tension absolute value. Notwithstanding, the expansion terms aftermath, further accomplished in this paper from the third order on, elicits the successive covariant derivatives of the brane variable tension, and their respective coupling with the extrinsic curvature, the Weyl tensor, and the Riemann and Ricci tensors, as well as the scalar curvature. Such additional terms are shown to provide sudden modifications in the black string horizon in a variable tension braneworld scenario.

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 4: Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Four background scenarios that relate to alternative states of society in the next 25 to 50 years are described. The scenarios were developed for use in analyzing and evaluating alternative future intercity transportation technologies. The scenarios are based, in part, on discussions contained in the issue papers and, in part, on separate analysis of social and economic trends considered relevant for the evolution of intercity transportation.

Estimation of incremental reactivities for multiple day scenarios: an application to ethane and dimethyoxymethane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockwell, William R.; Geiger, Harald; Becker, Karl H.

Single-day scenarios are used to calculate incremental reactivities by definition (Carter, J. Air Waste Management Assoc. 44 (1994) 881-899.) but even unreactive organic compounds may have a non-negligible effect on ozone concentrations if multiple-day scenarios are considered. The concentration of unreactive compounds and their products may build up over a multiple-day period and the oxidation products may be highly reactive or highly unreactive affecting the overall incremental reactivity of the organic compound. We have developed a method for calculating incremental reactivities for multiple days based on a standard scenario for polluted European conditions. This method was used to estimate maximum incremental reactivities (MIR) and maximum ozone incremental reactivities (MOIR) for ethane and dimethyoxymethane for scenarios ranging from 1 to 6 days. It was found that the incremental reactivities increased as the length of the simulation period increased. The MIR of ethane increased faster than the value for dimethyoxymethane as the scenarios became longer. The MOIRs of ethane and dimethyoxymethane increased but the change was more modest for scenarios longer than 3 days. MOIRs of both volatile organic compounds were equal within the uncertainties of their chemical mechanisms by the 5 day scenario. These results show that dimethyoxymethane has an ozone forming potential on a per mass basis that is only somewhat greater than ethane if multiple-day scenarios are considered.

Energy balance and emissions associated with biochar sequestration and pyrolysis bioenergy production.

PubMed

Gaunt, John L; Lehmann, Johannes

2008-06-01

The implications for greenhouse gas emissions of optimizing a slow pyrolysis-based bioenergy system for biochar and energy production rather than solely for energy production were assessed. Scenarios for feedstock production were examined using a life-cycle approach. We considered both purpose grown bioenergy crops (BEC) and the use of crop wastes (CW) as feedstocks. The BEC scenarios involved a change from growing winter wheat to purpose grown miscanthus, switchgrass, and corn as bioenergy crops. The CW scenarios consider both corn stover and winter wheat straw as feedstocks. Our findings show that the avoided emissions are between 2 and 5 times greater when biochar is applied to agricultural land (2--19 Mg CO2 ha(-1) y(-1)) than used solely for fossil energy offsets. 41--64% of these emission reductions are related to the retention of C in biochar, the rest to offsetting fossil fuel use for energy, fertilizer savings, and avoided soil emissions other than CO2. Despite a reduction in energy output of approximately 30% where the slow pyrolysis technology is optimized to produce biochar for land application, the energy produced per unit energy input at 2--7 MJ/MJ is greater than that of comparable technologies such as ethanol from corn. The C emissions per MWh of electricity production range from 91-360 kg CO2 MWh(-1), before accounting for C offset due to the use of biochar are considerably below the lifecycle emissions associated with fossil fuel use for electricity generation (600-900 kg CO2 MWh(-1)). Low-temperature slow pyrolysis offers an energetically efficient strategy for bioenergy production, and the land application of biochar reduces greenhouse emissions to a greater extent than when the biochar is used to offset fossil fuel emissions.

A climate-change scenario for the Columbia River Basin.

Treesearch

Sue A. Ferguson

1997-01-01

This work describes the method used to generate a climate-change scenario for the Columbia River basin. The scenario considers climate patterns that may change if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (C02), or its greenhouse gas equivalent, were to double over pre-Industrial Revolution values. Given the current rate of increase in...

30 CFR 254.47 - Determining the volume of oil of your worst case discharge scenario.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... the daily discharge rate, you must consider reservoir characteristics, casing/production tubing sizes, and historical production and reservoir pressure data. Your scenario must discuss how to respond to... drilling operations, the size of your worst case discharge scenario is the daily volume possible from an...

Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilmot, E L

1981-02-01

A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

Minimal but non-minimal inflation and electroweak symmetry breaking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marzola, Luca; Institute of Physics, University of Tartu,Ravila 14c, 50411 Tartu; Racioppi, Antonio

2016-10-07

We consider the most minimal scale invariant extension of the standard model that allows for successful radiative electroweak symmetry breaking and inflation. The framework involves an extra scalar singlet, that plays the rôle of the inflaton, and is compatibile with current experimental bounds owing to the non-minimal coupling of the latter to gravity. This inflationary scenario predicts a very low tensor-to-scalar ratio r≈10{sup −3}, typical of Higgs-inflation models, but in contrast yields a scalar spectral index n{sub s}≃0.97 which departs from the Starobinsky limit. We briefly discuss the collider phenomenology of the framework.

A theory of ring formation around Be stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, S.-S.

1976-01-01

A theory for the formation of gaseous rings around Be stars is developed which involves the combined effect of stellar rotation and radiation pressure. A qualitative scenario of ring formation is outlined in which the envelope formed about a star from ejected material is in the form of a disk in the equatorial plane, collisions between ejected gas blobs are inevitable, and particles with high angular momenta form a rotating ring around the star. A quantitative description of this process is then formulated by considering the angular momentum and dynamical energy of the ejected matter as well as those of the ring alone, without introducing any other assumptions.

Reconfigurable Mobile System - Ground, sea and air applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamonica, Gary L.; Sturges, James W.

1990-11-01

The Reconfigurable Mobile System (RMS) is a highly mobile data-processing unit for military users requiring real-time access to data gathered by airborne (and other) reconnaissance data. RMS combines high-performance computation and image processing workstations with resources for command/control/communications in a single, lightweight shelter. RMS is composed of off-the-shelf components, and is easily reconfigurable to land-vehicle or shipboard versions. Mission planning, which involves an airborne sensor platform's sensor coverage, considered aircraft/sensor capabilities in conjunction with weather, terrain, and threat scenarios. RMS's man-machine interface concept facilitates user familiarization and features iron-based function selection and windowing.

Identifying Effective Design Approaches to Allocate Genotypes in Two-Phase Designs: A Case Study in Pelargonium zonale

PubMed Central

Molenaar, Heike; Boehm, Robert; Piepho, Hans-Peter

2018-01-01

Robust phenotypic data allow adequate statistical analysis and are crucial for any breeding purpose. Such data is obtained from experiments laid out to best control local variation. Additionally, experiments frequently involve two phases, each contributing environmental sources of variation. For example, in a former experiment we conducted to evaluate production related traits in Pelargonium zonale, there were two consecutive phases, each performed in a different greenhouse. Phase one involved the propagation of the breeding strains to obtain the stem cutting count, and phase two involved the assessment of root formation. The evaluation of the former study raised questions regarding options for improving the experimental layout: (i) Is there a disadvantage to using exactly the same design in both phases? (ii) Instead of generating a separate layout for each phase, can the design be optimized across both phases, such that the mean variance of a pair-wise treatment difference (MVD) can be decreased? To answer these questions, alternative approaches were explored to generate two-phase designs either in phase-wise order (Option 1) or across phases (Option 2). In Option 1 we considered the scenarios (i) using in both phases the same experimental design and (ii) randomizing each phase separately. In Option 2, we considered the scenarios (iii) generating a single design with eight replicates and splitting these among the two phases, (iv) separating the block structure across phases by dummy coding, and (v) design generation with optimal alignment of block units in the two phases. In both options, we considered the same or different block structures in each phase. The designs were evaluated by the MVD obtained by the intra-block analysis and the joint inter-block–intra-block analysis. The smallest MVD was most frequently obtained for designs generated across phases rather than for each phase separately, in particular when both phases of the design were separated with a single pseudo-level. The joint optimization ensured that treatment concurrences were equally balanced across pairs, one of the prerequisites for an efficient design. The proposed alternative approaches can be implemented with any model-based design packages with facilities to formulate linear models for treatment and block structures. PMID:29354145

Mechanisms of anterior cruciate ligament injuries in elite women's netball: a systematic video analysis.

PubMed

Stuelcken, Max C; Mellifont, Daniel B; Gorman, Adam D; Sayers, Mark G L

2016-08-01

This study involved a systematic video analysis of 16 anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries sustained by elite-level netball players during televised games in order to describe the game situation, the movement patterns involved, the player's behaviour, and a potential injury mechanism. Eight of the ACL injuries were classified as "indirect contact" and eight as "non-contact". Two common scenarios were identified. In Scenario A the player was jumping to receive or intercept a pass and whilst competing for the ball experienced a perturbation in the air. As a result the player's landing was unbalanced with loading occurring predominantly on the knee of the injured side. In Scenario B the player was generally in a good position at ground contact, but then noticeably altered the alignment of the trunk before the landing was completed. This involved rotating and laterally flexing the trunk without altering the alignment of the feet. Apparent knee valgus collapse on the knee of the injured side was observed in 3/6 Scenario A cases and 5/6 Scenario B cases. Players may benefit from landing training programmes that incorporate tasks that use a ball and include decision-making components or require players to learn to cope with being unbalanced.

Measuring Workload Differences Between Short-term Memory and Long-term Memory Scenarios in a Simulated Flight Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, S. L.; Sheridan, T. B.

1984-01-01

Four highly experienced Air Force pilots each flew four simulated flight scenarios. Two scenarios required a great deal of aircraft maneuvering. The other two scenarios involved less maneuvering, but required remembering a number of items. All scenarios were designed to be equaly challenging. Pilot's Subjective Ratings for Activity-level, Complexity, Difficulty, Stress, and Workload were higher for the manuevering scenarios than the memory scenarios. At a moderate workload level, keeping the pilots active resulted in better aircraft control. When required to monitor and remember items, aircraft control tended to decrease. Pilots tended to weigh information about the spatial positioning and performance of their aircraft more heavily than other items.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufresne, J.-L.; Foujols, M.-A.; Denvil, S.; Caubel, A.; Marti, O.; Aumont, O.; Balkanski, Y.; Bekki, S.; Bellenger, H.; Benshila, R.; Bony, S.; Bopp, L.; Braconnot, P.; Brockmann, P.; Cadule, P.; Cheruy, F.; Codron, F.; Cozic, A.; Cugnet, D.; de Noblet, N.; Duvel, J.-P.; Ethé, C.; Fairhead, L.; Fichefet, T.; Flavoni, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Grandpeix, J.-Y.; Guez, L.; Guilyardi, E.; Hauglustaine, D.; Hourdin, F.; Idelkadi, A.; Ghattas, J.; Joussaume, S.; Kageyama, M.; Krinner, G.; Labetoulle, S.; Lahellec, A.; Lefebvre, M.-P.; Lefevre, F.; Levy, C.; Li, Z. X.; Lloyd, J.; Lott, F.; Madec, G.; Mancip, M.; Marchand, M.; Masson, S.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Mignot, J.; Musat, I.; Parouty, S.; Polcher, J.; Rio, C.; Schulz, M.; Swingedouw, D.; Szopa, S.; Talandier, C.; Terray, P.; Viovy, N.; Vuichard, N.

2013-05-01

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Antecedents of moral pride: the harder the action, the greater the pride?

PubMed

Etxebarria, Itziar; Ortiz, M José; Apodaca, Pedro; Pascual, Aitziber; Conejero, Susana

2014-01-01

The study's aim was to analyze if some specific types of action generate higher levels of moral pride. Three variables were analyzed: whether the actions involved going against the group majority, whether they involved a personal cost of a different kind and whether they were the result of a prior intention. Participants were 160 adolescents aged between 14 and 16. Sixteen scenarios were designed (two for each combination of the three variables) in which someone needed help. Half of the participants were presented with 8 of these scenarios, and half with the other 8. In each scenario, participants were asked to state what they would feel and do and how much pride they would feel if they helped. Curiously enough, both prosocial behaviors which involved going against the majority, F(1, 140) = 60.36, p = .001, η2 = .301 and those which involved a personal cost of a different kind, F(1, 140) = 10.17, p = .002, η2 = .068 generated less moral pride.

Exploring the influence of citizen involvement on the assimilation of crowdsourced observations: a modelling study based on the 2013 flood event in the Bacchiglione catchment (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Cortes Arevalo, Vivian Juliette; Wehn, Uta; Alfonso, Leonardo; Norbiato, Daniele; Monego, Martina; Ferri, Michele; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

2018-01-01

To improve hydrological predictions, real-time measurements derived from traditional physical sensors are integrated within mathematic models. Recently, traditional sensors are being complemented with crowdsourced data (social sensors). Although measurements from social sensors can be low cost and more spatially distributed, other factors like spatial variability of citizen involvement, decreasing involvement over time, variable observations accuracy and feasibility for model assimilation play an important role in accurate flood predictions. Only a few studies have investigated the benefit of assimilating uncertain crowdsourced data in hydrological and hydraulic models. In this study, we investigate the usefulness of assimilating crowdsourced observations from a heterogeneous network of static physical, static social and dynamic social sensors. We assess improvements in the model prediction performance for different spatial-temporal scenarios of citizen involvement levels. To that end, we simulate an extreme flood event that occurred in the Bacchiglione catchment (Italy) in May 2013 using a semi-distributed hydrological model with the station at Ponte degli Angeli (Vicenza) as the prediction-validation point. A conceptual hydrological model is implemented by the Alto Adriatico Water Authority and it is used to estimate runoff from the different sub-catchments, while a hydraulic model is implemented to propagate the flow along the river reach. In both models, a Kalman filter is implemented to assimilate the crowdsourced observations. Synthetic crowdsourced observations are generated for either static social or dynamic social sensors because these measures were not available at the time of the study. We consider two sets of experiments: (i) assuming random probability of receiving crowdsourced observations and (ii) using theoretical scenarios of citizen motivations, and consequent involvement levels, based on population distribution. The results demonstrate the usefulness of integrating crowdsourced observations. First, the assimilation of crowdsourced observations located at upstream points of the Bacchiglione catchment ensure high model performance for high lead-time values, whereas observations at the outlet of the catchments provide good results for short lead times. Second, biased and inaccurate crowdsourced observations can significantly affect model results. Third, the theoretical scenario of citizens motivated by their feeling of belonging to a community of friends has the best effect in the model performance. However, flood prediction only improved when such small communities are located in the upstream portion of the Bacchiglione catchment. Finally, decreasing involvement over time leads to a reduction in model performance and consequently inaccurate flood forecasts.

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics

PubMed Central

Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel’s Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species’ available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to ‘errors’ (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario. PMID:29621330

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

PubMed

Troupin, David; Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel's Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species' available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to 'errors' (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario.

Prospective scenarios of nuclear energy evolution over the 21. century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Massara, S.; Tetart, P.; Garzenne, C.

2006-07-01

In this paper, different world scenarios of nuclear energy development over the 21. century are analyzed, by means of the EDF fuel cycle simulation code for nuclear scenario studies, TIRELIRE - STRATEGIE. Three nuclear demand scenarios are considered, and the performance of different nuclear strategies in satisfying these scenarios is analyzed and discussed, focusing on natural uranium consumption and industrial requirements related to the nuclear reactors and the associated fuel cycle facilities. Both thermal-spectrum systems (Pressurized Water Reactor and High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor) and Fast Reactors are investigated. (authors)

Validation of a model with climatic and flow scenario analysis: case of Lake Burrumbeet in southeastern Australia.

PubMed

Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

2016-05-01

Forecast evaluation is an important topic that addresses the development of reliable hydrological probabilistic forecasts, mainly through the use of climate uncertainties. Often, validation has no place in hydrology for most of the times, despite the parameters of a model are uncertain. Similarly, the structure of the model can be incorrectly chosen. A calibrated and verified dynamic hydrologic water balance spreadsheet model has been used to assess the effect of climate variability on Lake Burrumbeet, southeastern Australia. The lake level has been verified to lake level, lake volume, lake surface area, surface outflow and lake salinity. The current study aims to increase lake level confidence model prediction through historical validation for the year 2008-2013, under different climatic scenario. Based on the observed climatic condition (2008-2013), it fairly matches with a hybridization of scenarios, being the period interval (2008-2013), corresponds to both dry and wet climatic condition. Besides to the hydrologic stresses uncertainty, uncertainty in the calibrated model is among the major drawbacks involved in making scenario simulations. In line with this, the uncertainty in the calibrated model was tested using sensitivity analysis and showed that errors in the model can largely be attributed to erroneous estimates of evaporation and rainfall, and surface inflow to a lesser. The study demonstrates that several climatic scenarios should be analysed, with a combination of extreme climate, stream flow and climate change instead of one assumed climatic sequence, to improve climate variability prediction in the future. Performing such scenario analysis is a valid exercise to comprehend the uncertainty with the model structure and hydrology, in a meaningful way, without missing those, even considered as less probable, ultimately turned to be crucial for decision making and will definitely increase the confidence of model prediction for management of the water resources.

Hydrological changes in the Amur river basin: two approaches for assignment of climate projections into hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelfan, Alexander; Kalugin, Andrei; Motovilov, Yury

2017-04-01

A regional hydrological model was setup to assess possible impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Amur drainage basin (the catchment area is 1 855 000 km2). The model is based on the ECOMAG hydrological modeling platform and describes spatially distributed processes of water cycle in this great basin with account for flow regulation by the Russian and Chinese reservoirs. Earlier, the regional hydrological model was intensively evaluated against 20-year streamflow data over the whole Amur basin and, being driven by 252-station meteorological observations as input data, demonstrated good performance. In this study, we firstly assessed the reliability of the model to reproduce the historical streamflow series when Global Climate Model (GCM) simulation data are used as input into the hydrological model. Data of nine GCMs involved in CMIP5 project was utilized and we found that ensemble mean of annual flow is close to the observed flow (error is about 14%) while data of separate GCMs may result in much larger errors. Reproduction of seasonal flow for the historical period turned out weaker; first of all because of large errors in simulated seasonal precipitation, so hydrological consequences of climate change were estimated just in terms of annual flow. We analyzed the hydrological projections from the climate change scenarios. The impacts were assessed in four 20-year periods: early- (2020-2039), mid- (2040-2059) and two end-century (2060-2079; 2080-2099) periods using an ensemble of nine GCMs and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Mean annual runoff anomalies calculated as percentages of the future runoff (simulated under 36 GCM-RCP combinations of climate scenarios) to the historical runoff (simulated under the corresponding GCM outputs for the reference 1986-2005 period) were estimated. Hydrological model gave small negative runoff anomalies for almost all GCM-RCP combinations of climate scenarios and for all 20-year periods. The largest ensemble mean anomaly was about minus 8% by the end of XXI century under the most severe RCP8.5 scenario. We compared the mean annual runoff anomalies projected under the GCM-based data for the XXI century with the corresponding anomalies projected under a modified observed climatology using the delta-change (DC) method. Use of the modified observed records as driving forces for hydrological model-based projections can be considered as an alternative to the GCM-based scenarios if the latter are uncertain. The main advantage of the DC approach is its simplicity: in its simplest version only differences between present and future climates (i.e. between the long-term means of the climatic variables) are considered as DC-factors. In this study, the DC-factors for the reference meteorological series (1986-2005) of climate parameters were calculated from the GCM-based scenarios. The modified historical data were used as input into the hydrological models. For each of four 20-year period, runoff anomalies simulated under the delta-changed historical time series were compared with runoff anomalies simulated under the corresponding GCM-data with the same mean. We found that the compared projections are closely correlated. Thus, for the Amur basin, the modified observed climatology can be used as driving force for hydrological model-based projections and considered as an alternative to the GCM-based scenarios if only annual flow projections are of the interest.

A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

2009-01-01

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Considering the Role of Natural Gas in the Deep Decarbonization of the U.S. Electricity Sector. Natural Gas and the Evolving U.S. Power Sector Monograph Series: Number 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley; Beppler, Ross; Zinaman, Owen

Natural gas generation in the U.S. electricity sector has grown substantially in recent years, while the sector's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have generally declined. This relationship highlights the concept of natural gas as a potential enabler of a transition to a lower-carbon future. This work considers that concept by using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Renewable Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. ReEDS is a long-term capacity expansion model of the U.S. electricity sector. We examine the role of natural gas within the ReEDS modeling framework as increasingly strict carbon emission targets are imposed on the electricity sector. In additionmore » to various natural gas price futures, we also consider scenarios that emphasize a low-carbon technology in order to better understand the role of natural gas if that low-carbon technology shows particular promise. Specifically, we consider scenarios with high amounts of energy efficiency (EE), low nuclear power costs, low renewable energy (RE) costs, and low carbon capture and storage (CCS) costs. Within these scenarios we find that requiring the electricity sector to lower CO2 emissions over time increases near-to-mid-term (through 2030) natural gas generation (see Figure 1 - left). The long-term (2050) role of natural gas generation in the electricity sector is dependent on the level of CO2 emission reduction required. Moderate reductions in long-term CO2 emissions have relatively little impact on long-term natural gas generation, while more stringent CO2 emission limits lower long-term natural gas generation (see Figure 1 - right). More stringent carbon targets also impact other generating technologies, with the scenarios considered here seeing significant decreases in coal generation, and new capacity of nuclear and renewable energy technologies over time. Figure 1 also demonstrates the role of natural gas in the context of scenarios where a specific low-carbon technology is advantaged. In 2030, natural gas generation in the technology scenarios is quite similar to that in the reference scenarios, indicating relatively little change in the role of natural gas in the near-to-mid-term due to advancements in those technology areas. The 2050 natural gas generation shows more significant differences, suggesting that technology advancements will likely have substantial impacts on the role of natural gas in the longer-term timeframe. Natural gas generation differences are most strongly driven by alternative natural gas price trajectories--changes in natural gas generation in the Low NG Price and High NG Price scenarios are much larger than in any other scenario in both the 2030 and 2050 timeframes. The only low-carbon technology scenarios that showed any increase in long-term natural gas generation relative to the reference case were the Low CCS cost scenarios. Carbon capture and storage technology costs are currently high, but have the potential to allow fossil fuels to play a larger role in low-carbon grid. This work considers three CCS cost trajectories for natural gas and coal generators: a baseline trajectory and two lower cost trajectories where CO2 capture costs reach $40/metric ton and $10/metric ton, respectively. We find that in the context of the ReEDS model and with these assumed cost trajectories, CCS can increase the long-term natural gas generation under a low carbon target (see Figure 2). Under less stringent carbon targets we do not see ReEDS electing to use CCS as part of its electricity generating portfolio for the scenarios considered in this work.« less

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

Traffic accident reconstruction and an approach for prediction of fault rates using artificial neural networks: A case study in Turkey.

PubMed

Can Yilmaz, Ali; Aci, Cigdem; Aydin, Kadir

2016-08-17

Currently, in Turkey, fault rates in traffic accidents are determined according to the initiative of accident experts (no speed analyses of vehicles just considering accident type) and there are no specific quantitative instructions on fault rates related to procession of accidents which just represents the type of collision (side impact, head to head, rear end, etc.) in No. 2918 Turkish Highway Traffic Act (THTA 1983). The aim of this study is to introduce a scientific and systematic approach for determination of fault rates in most frequent property damage-only (PDO) traffic accidents in Turkey. In this study, data (police reports, skid marks, deformation, crush depth, etc.) collected from the most frequent and controversial accident types (4 sample vehicle-vehicle scenarios) that consist of PDO were inserted into a reconstruction software called vCrash. Sample real-world scenarios were simulated on the software to generate different vehicle deformations that also correspond to energy-equivalent speed data just before the crash. These values were used to train a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network (MFANN), function fitting neural network (FITNET, a specialized version of MFANN), and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models within 10-fold cross-validation to predict fault rates without using software. The performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) prediction models was evaluated using mean square error (MSE) and multiple correlation coefficient (R). It was shown that the MFANN model performed better for predicting fault rates (i.e., lower MSE and higher R) than FITNET and GRNN models for accident scenarios 1, 2, and 3, whereas FITNET performed the best for scenario 4. The FITNET model showed the second best results for prediction for the first 3 scenarios. Because there is no training phase in GRNN, the GRNN model produced results much faster than MFANN and FITNET models. However, the GRNN model had the worst prediction results. The R values for prediction of fault rates were close to 1 for all folds and scenarios. This study focuses on exhibiting new aspects and scientific approaches for determining fault rates of involvement in most frequent PDO accidents occurring in Turkey by discussing some deficiencies in THTA and without regard to initiative and/or experience of experts. This study yields judicious decisions to be made especially on forensic investigations and events involving insurance companies. Referring to this approach, injury/fatal and/or pedestrian-related accidents may be analyzed as future work by developing new scientific models.

User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

2017-04-01

In the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS) new climate change scenarios for Switzerland are currently under development that will be released in 2018 ("CH2018 scenarios"). An important component herein is the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user tailored and hence find a wide applicability in different sectors in Switzerland. A comprehensive market research was conducted to get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need. The survey targeted the most climate relevant sectors, and involved representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users and two specific workshops gathering the needs in dissemination. Additionally, the survey results were consolidated at a national symposium with around 150 participants from research, administration and practice. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the users of climate scenarios according to their level of usage and according to the different sectors. It turns out that the less intensive the usage of the climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. According to the survey it is especially the non-experts that should be better addressed in the new cycle of national climate scenarios. In terms of content, the survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in the predecessor climate scenario suite CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy sector for the combination of wind speed and global radiation. Furthermore, the survey reveals that the incorporation of provided uncertainty depends on the user type: while intensive users often can handle uncertainties, there are a lot of other users that either cannot or purposely do not make use of the uncertainty. For the development of new Swiss climate scenarios the survey results on end-user needs are considered as a starting point for further interactions with users. This is accomplished with the establishment of a sounding board accompagning the project throught its time span. Furthermore, explicit stakeholder-dialogues with key users of different sectors will be carried during the project phase.

Steady State Thermal Analyses of SCEPTOR X-57 Wingtip Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnulo, Sydney L.; Chin, Jeffrey C.; Smith, Andrew D.; Dubois, Arthur

2017-01-01

Electric aircraft concepts enable advanced propulsion airframe integration approaches that promise increased efficiency as well as reduced emissions and noise. NASA's fully electric Maxwell X-57, developed under the SCEPTOR program, features distributed propulsion across a high aspect ratio wing. There are 14 propulsors in all: 12 high lift motor that are only active during take off and climb, and 2 larger motors positioned on the wingtips that operate over the entire mission. The power electronics involved in the wingtip propulsion are temperature sensitive and therefore require thermal management. This work focuses on the high and low fidelity heat transfer analysis methods performed to ensure that the wingtip motor inverters do not reach their temperature limits. It also explores different geometry configurations involved in the X-57 development and any thermal concerns. All analyses presented are performed at steady state under stressful operating conditions, therefore predicting temperatures which are considered the worst-case scenario to remain conservative.

Modeling the reversible, diffusive sink effect in response to transient contaminant sources.

PubMed

Zhao, D; Little, J C; Hodgson, A T

2002-09-01

A physically based diffusion model is used to evaluate the sink effect of diffusion-controlled indoor materials and to predict the transient contaminant concentration in indoor air in response to several time-varying contaminant sources. For simplicity, it is assumed the predominant indoor material is a homogeneous slab, initially free of contaminant, and the air within the room is well mixed. The model enables transient volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations to be predicted based on the material/air partition coefficient (K) and the material-phase diffusion coefficient (D) of the sink. Model predictions are made for three scenarios, each mimicking a realistic situation in a building. Styrene, phenol, and naphthalene are used as representative VOCs. A styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) backed carpet, vinyl flooring (VF), and a polyurethane foam (PUF) carpet cushion are considered as typical indoor sinks. In scenarios involving a sinusoidal VOC input and a double exponential decaying input, the model predicts the sink has a modest impact for SBR/styrene, but the effect increases for VF/phenol and PUF/naphthalene. In contrast, for an episodic chemical spill, SBR is predicted to reduce the peak styrene concentration considerably. A parametric study reveals for systems involving a large equilibrium constant (K), the kinetic constant (D) will govern the shape of the resulting gasphase concentration profile. On the other hand, for systems with a relaxed mass transfer resistance, K will dominate the profile.

Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wronna, M.; Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.

2015-08-01

In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines - Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, runup and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite of Horseshoe and Marques Pombal fault as the worst case scenario. It governs the aggregate scenario with about 60 % and inundates an area of 3.5 km2.

Anonymity and Historical-Anonymity in Location-Based Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bettini, Claudio; Mascetti, Sergio; Wang, X. Sean; Freni, Dario; Jajodia, Sushil

The problem of protecting user’s privacy in Location-Based Services (LBS) has been extensively studied recently and several defense techniques have been proposed. In this contribution, we first present a categorization of privacy attacks and related defenses. Then, we consider the class of defense techniques that aim at providing privacy through anonymity and in particular algorithms achieving “historical k- anonymity” in the case of the adversary obtaining a trace of requests recognized as being issued by the same (anonymous) user. Finally, we investigate the issues involved in the experimental evaluation of anonymity based defense techniques; we show that user movement simulations based on mostly random movements can lead to overestimate the privacy protection in some cases and to overprotective techniques in other cases. The above results are obtained by comparison to a more realistic simulation with an agent-based simulator, considering a specific deployment scenario.

Feasibility of Stochastic Voltage/VAr Optimization Considering Renewable Energy Resources for Smart Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Momoh, James A.; Salkuti, Surender Reddy

2016-06-01

This paper proposes a stochastic optimization technique for solving the Voltage/VAr control problem including the load demand and Renewable Energy Resources (RERs) variation. The RERs often take along some inputs like stochastic behavior. One of the important challenges i. e., Voltage/VAr control is a prime source for handling power system complexity and reliability, hence it is the fundamental requirement for all the utility companies. There is a need for the robust and efficient Voltage/VAr optimization technique to meet the peak demand and reduction of system losses. The voltages beyond the limit may damage costly sub-station devices and equipments at consumer end as well. Especially, the RERs introduces more disturbances and some of the RERs are not even capable enough to meet the VAr demand. Therefore, there is a strong need for the Voltage/VAr control in RERs environment. This paper aims at the development of optimal scheme for Voltage/VAr control involving RERs. In this paper, Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method is used to cover full range of variables by maximally satisfying the marginal distribution. Here, backward scenario reduction technique is used to reduce the number of scenarios effectively and maximally retain the fitting accuracy of samples. The developed optimization scheme is tested on IEEE 24 bus Reliability Test System (RTS) considering the load demand and RERs variation.

The complexities of DNA transfer during a social setting.

PubMed

Goray, Mariya; van Oorschot, Roland A H

2015-03-01

When questions relating to how a touch DNA sample from a specific individual got to where it was sampled from, one has limited data available to provide an assessment on the likelihood of specific transfer events within a proposed scenario. This data is mainly related to the impact of some key variables affecting transfer that are derived from structured experiments. Here we consider the effects of unstructured social interactions on the transfer of touch DNA. Unscripted social exchanges of three individuals having a drink together while sitting at a table were video recorded and DNA samples were collected and profiled from all relevant items touched during each sitting. Attempts were made to analyze when and how DNA was transferred from one object to another. The analyses demonstrate that simple minor everyday interactions involving only a few items in some instances lead to detectable DNA being transferred among individuals and objects without them having contacted each other through secondary and further transfer. Transfer was also observed to be bi-directional. Furthermore, DNA of unknown source on hands or objects can be transferred and interfere with the interpretation of profiles generated from targeted touched surfaces. This study provides further insight into the transfer of DNA that may be useful when considering the likelihood of alternate scenarios of how a DNA sample got to where it was found. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

What Did I Do? A Scenario-Based Program To Assist Specific Learning Disabled Adolescents in Understanding Legal Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDougall, Donna M.

This practicum was designed to train eight adolescents with specific learning disabilities (SLD) about their legal rights and responsibilities, through a scenario-based program presented in the classroom as part of a transition program. The practicum involved the development of 22 scenarios, a pretest and posttest, and discussions and role-playing…

Hydrothermal Liquefaction Treatment Hazard Analysis Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

Hazard analyses were performed to evaluate the modular hydrothermal liquefaction treatment system. The hazard assessment process was performed in 2 stages. An initial assessment utilizing Hazard Identification and Preliminary Hazards Analysis (PHA) techniques identified areas with significant or unique hazards (process safety-related hazards) that fall outside of the normal operating envelope of PNNL and warranted additional analysis. The subsequent assessment was based on a qualitative What-If analysis. The analysis was augmented, as necessary, by additional quantitative analysis for scenarios involving a release of hazardous material or energy with the potential for affecting the public. The following selected hazardous scenarios receivedmore » increased attention: •Scenarios involving a release of hazardous material or energy, controls were identified in the What-If analysis table that prevent the occurrence or mitigate the effects of the release. •Scenarios with significant consequences that could impact personnel outside the immediate operations area, quantitative analyses were performed to determine the potential magnitude of the scenario. The set of “critical controls” were identified for these scenarios (see Section 4) which prevent the occurrence or mitigate the effects of the release of events with significant consequences.« less

Near field earthquake sources scenarios and related tsunamis on the French-Italian Riviera (Western Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larroque, Christophe; Ioualalen, Mansour; Scotti, Oona

2014-05-01

The large system of thrust faults recently evidenced at the foot of the northern Ligurian margin accommodates the inversion of this ancient passive margin since at least 5 Ma (Messinian times). At depth, these faults are certainly connected to a major northward dipping thrust that accounts for the major part of the seismicity in the northern Ligurian Sea. The deformations of the Quaternary sediments along the faults attest to a compressive tectonic regime consistent with the focal mechanisms of earthquakes. The major event in the area (the Ligurian earthquake, 1887/02/23, Mw 6.7-6.9 and the related tsunami) could result from the activation of part of the Ligurian thrust. Starting from the Ligurian earthquake source characteristics (strike: N55°E, dip: 16°N, length: 35 km, width: 17 km, co-seismic slip: 1.5 m, focal depth: 15 km, Mw 6.9), we have built an exhaustive set of earthquake scenarios involving the 80 km long Ligurian thrust. (1) Two of these earthquake scenarios ruptured respectively the eastern (offshore Imperia) and western (offshore Nice) part of the Ligurian thrust. (2) As these scenarios must scan the range of potential events in accordance with the geology, a second group of scenarios tests an 80 km long rupture of the entire Ligurian thrust with different strikes (N55°E and N70°E) and different widths of the faulting surface (17 km and 27 km) and then co-seismic slips of 2 m and 3.3 m, respectively. As the Ligurian coast is a densely populated and industrial area, the vulnerability is high. We want to stress here that we are more concerned with tsunamis triggered by local earthquakes. This is because, considering their arrival times (a few minutes), the risk prevention cannot be handled by existing tsunami warning system. For all scenarios we evaluate the tsunami coastal impact. The spatial distribution of the maximum wave height (MWH) is provided with a tentative identification of the processes that are responsible for it. The predictions suggest that the wave impact is mostly local considering the relatively moderate size of the rupture planes compared to large subduction earthquake induced tsunamis. The studied scenarios show that for such events specific localities along the French-Italian Riviera (San Remo, Cipressa, Imperia, Diano Marina, Nice) may experience very significant MWH (in the range of 3 to 10 m depending of the co-seismic slip and magnitude) related to the shallow focal depth tested for such scenarios. We may reasonably conclude that the tsunami threat is relatively significant and uniform along the Italian side of the Riviera (from Ventimiglia to Imperia) while it is more localized along the French side from Ventimiglia to Antibes with however higher local level of inundation, e.g., Nice city center, in case of a complete rupture of the Ligurian thrust faults system.

Improving childcare staff management of acute asthma exacerbation - An Australian pilot study.

PubMed

Soo, Yien Yien; Luckie, Kate Helen; Saini, Bandana; Kritikos, Vicky; Brannan, John D; Moles, Rebekah Jane

2017-09-01

This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of an asthma first-aid training tool for childcare staff in Australia. The effects of training on both asthma knowledge and skills were assessed. A pre/post-study design was utilised to assess changes in asthma knowledge and asthma first-aid skills in childcare staff before and after an educational intervention. Asthma first-aid skills were assessed from the participant's response to two scenarios in which a child was having a severe exacerbation of asthma. Asthma knowledge and asthma skills scores were collected at base-line and 3 weeks post the education session, which involved feedback on each individual's skills and a brief lecture on asthma delivered via PowerPoint presentation. There was a significant improvement after intervention in asthma knowledge (Z = -3.638, p < 0.001) and asthma first-aid skills for both scenario 1 (Z = -6.012, p < 0.001) and scenario 2 (Z = -6.018, p < 0.001). In scenario 1 and 2, first-aid skills improved by 65% (p < 0.001) and 57% (p < 0.001), respectively. Asthma knowledge was high at baseline (79%) and increased by 7% (p < 0.001) after the educational intervention. These asthma knowledge results were not significant when adjusted for prior knowledge. Results suggest that knowledge assessment alone may not predict the practical skills needed for asthma first-aid. Skills assessment is a useful adjunct to knowledge assessment when gauging the ability of childcare staff to manage acute asthma exacerbation. Skills assessment could be considered for incorporation into future educational interventions to improve management of acute asthma exacerbation.

The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100.

PubMed

Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2017-01-01

This paper applies the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to project national populations based on alternative assumptions on future, fertility, mortality, migration and educational transitions that correspond to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) storylines. In doing so it goes a significant step beyond past population scenarios in the IPCC context which considered only total population size. By differentiating the human population not only by age and sex-as is conventionally done in demographic projections-but also by different levels of educational attainment the most fundamental aspects of human development and social change are being explicitly addressed through modeling the changing composition of populations by these three important individual characteristics. The scenarios have been defined in a collaborative effort of the international Integrated Assessment Modeling community with the medium scenario following that of a major new effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OEAW, WU) involving over 550 experts from around the world. As a result, in terms of total world population size the trajectories resulting from the five SSPs stay very close to each other until around 2030 and by the middle of the century already a visible differentiation appears with the range between the highest (SSP3) and the lowest (SSP1) trajectories spanning 1.5 billion. The range opens up much more with the SSP3 reaching 12.6 billion in 2100 and SSP1 falling to 6.9 billion which is lower than today's world population.

Diagnosing true virtue? Remote scenarios, warranted virtue attributions, and virtuous medical practice.

PubMed

Oakley, Justin

2016-02-01

Immanuel Kant argues in the Foundations that remote scenarios are diagnostic of genuine virtue. When agents commonly thought to have a particular virtue fail to exhibit that virtue in an extreme situation, he argues, they do not truly have the virtue at all, and our propensities to fail in such ways indicate that true virtue might never have existed. Kant's suggestion that failure to show, say, courage in extraordinary circumstances necessarily silences one's claim to have genuine courage seems to rely on an implausibly demanding standard for warranted virtue attributions. In contrast to this approach, some philosophers-such as Robert Adams and John Doris-have argued for probabilistic accounts of warranted virtue attributions. But despite the initial plausibility of such accounts, I argue that a sole reliance on probabilistic approaches is inadequate, as they are insufficiently sensitive to considerations of credit and fault, which emerge when agents have developed various insurance strategies and protective capacities against their responding poorly to particular eventualities. I also argue that medical graduates should develop the sorts of virtuous dispositions necessary to protect patient welfare against various countervailing influences (even where such influences might be encountered only rarely), and that repeated failures to uphold the proper goals of medicine in emergency scenarios might indeed be diagnostic of whether an individual practitioner does have the relevant medical virtue. In closing, I consider the dispositions involved in friendship. I seek to develop a principled way of determining when remote scenarios can be illuminating of genuine friendship and genuine virtue.

The "I" in us, or the eye on us? Regulatory focus, commitment and derogation of an attractive alternative person.

PubMed

Rodrigues, David; Lopes, Diniz; Kumashiro, Madoka

2017-01-01

When individuals are highly committed to their romantic relationship, they are more likely to engage in pro-relationship maintenance mechanisms. The present research expanded on the notion that commitment redirects self-oriented goals to consider broader relational goals and examined whether commitment interacts with a promotion and prevention focus to activate derogation of attractive alternatives. Three studies used cross-sectional and experimental approaches. Study 1 showed that romantically involved individuals predominantly focused on promotion, but not prevention, reported less initial attraction to an attractive target than single individuals, especially when highly committed to their relationship. Study 2 showed that romantically involved individuals induced in a promotion focus, compared to those in prevention focus, reported less initial attraction, but only when more committed to their relationship. Regardless of regulatory focus manipulation, more committed individuals were also less likely to perceive quality among alternative scenarios and to be attentive to alternative others in general. Finally, Study 3 showed that romantically involved individuals induced in promotion focus and primed with high commitment reported less initial attraction, than those primed with low commitment, or than those induced in prevention focus. Once again, for these latter no differences occurred according to commitment prime. Together, the findings suggest that highly committed promotion focused individuals consider broader relationship goals and activate relationship maintenance behaviors such as derogation of attractive alternatives to promote their relationship.

Removal targets' classification: How time considerations modify the definition of the index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zemoura, Mélissa; Hanada, Toshiya; Kawamoto, Satomi

2017-09-01

The growth of the near-Earth debris population since the beginning of human space activities is now a fact commonly admitted by space agencies worldwide. Numerous entities have warned about the danger that debris may have over time. Presently mitigation methods such as imposing post-mission disposal time after launch will no longer be sufficient; remediation processes seem necessary to limit the increase. In particular, this phenomenon is attributed to the generation of fragments due to more and more on-orbit collisions. Therefore, investigations on indexes to select potential removal targets were recently conducted, considering solely objects implicated in a collision course. This study also looks at the multiple fragmentation factors, including time through the altitude at time of impact (due to the behaviour of debris re-entering with time). The focal point is here to compare different criteria to select removal targets that enable scenarios in best adequacy with the future in question (long term, mid term or short term). Aware of the uncertainty of evolutionary models, this study also incorporates the simulation method as an impactful factor and tries to overcome the potential randomness of the results. Therefore, this paper presents a way to establish a selection criterion the most adequate for the time period focused on. In order to solve this issue, a ;double-check; method is proposed. First, an analytical evolutionary model simulates the environment over 100 years, through 100 Monte-Carlo runs. Then, among the initial population of year 2009, the objects supposed to be at the origin of the debris detected at a given time are tracked back in time into the simulations, using a collision-detecting program. The ;given period; above mentioned for the presence of debris is based on a future as such that 2029 be considered a short-term scenario, 2059 a midterm scenario and 2109 a long-term scenario. This step produces three lists of targets for removal (one for each future), and simulations are run once again, through different scenarios involving the removal of particular listed targets in order to verify the appropriateness of the proposed scenarios. The analysis of the results is based both on the mean of the simulations and on the recurrence considering each run. Three studies were conducted one for each term, and a fourth one completed the work by establishing comparison between short, mid and long-term periods. As a result, three main criteria could be established: the altitude of the objects, the number of targets necessary to remove, and the phenomenon of chain collisions. According to the future that was investigated, the most adequate criterion appeared to be different, consisting in the number of objects in the long-term analysis or the ranking position at short term (linked to the close-time consideration). As a main conclusion and further perspectives, it should be more efficient to consider the collision-probability and mass product together with the time-depending generation of fragments. This would help increasing the precision in the prediction of collision impacts. Rather than pinpointing specified targets to be removed, the aim of this study is simply to understand the mechanisms at the origin of the population increase around the Earth. Also to demonstrate that a careful definition of selection criteria would enable to adopt a suitable removal process in the period of action or for the goal to be reached.

Nonlocal correlations in a macroscopic measurement scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunkri, Samir; Banik, Manik; Ghosh, Sibasish

2017-02-01

Nonlocality is one of the main characteristic features of quantum systems involving more than one spatially separated subsystem. It is manifested theoretically as well as experimentally through violation of some local realistic inequality. On the other hand, classical behavior of all physical phenomena in the macroscopic limit gives a general intuition that any physical theory for describing microscopic phenomena should resemble classical physics in the macroscopic regime, the so-called macrorealism. In the 2-2-2 scenario (two parties, with each performing two measurements and each measurement having two outcomes), contemplating all the no-signaling correlations, we characterize which of them would exhibit classical (local realistic) behavior in the macroscopic limit. Interestingly, we find correlations which at the single-copy level violate the Bell-Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt inequality by an amount less than the optimal quantum violation (i.e., Cirel'son bound 2 √{2 } ), but in the macroscopic limit gives rise to a value which is higher than 2 √{2 } . Such correlations are therefore not considered physical. Our study thus provides a sufficient criterion to identify some of unphysical correlations.

Potential economic implications of the development of space tourism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, P. Q.; Ashford, D. M.

Scenarios that involve high rates of launch traffic offer the possibility of bringing about major reductions in the cost of space transportation and hence of greatly facilitating the expansion of human activities in space. One scenario that has received little serious attention to date is the development of space tourism (i.e. the provision of pleasure trips in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to fare-paying passengers) into a major industry. This paper investigates the feasibility of this idea. First, the range of entertainments that could be provided in Earth-orbiting facilities is discussed, and shown to be extensive. A survey is made of published estimates of the expected demand for space tourism at different prices, and an attempt is made to quantify the overall potential. Second, the feasibility of providing the required services at the prices estimated to be acceptable is examined. Two particular levels of activity are assumed, and the scope for cost reductions through economies of scale and appropriate design are considered. It is argued that space tourism has the potential to provide a commercial justification for the development of fully reusable launch vehicles with low operating-costs.

Self-consistent Dark Matter simplified models with an s-channel scalar mediator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bell, Nicole F.; Busoni, Giorgio; Sanderson, Isaac W., E-mail: n.bell@unimelb.edu.au, E-mail: giorgio.busoni@unimelb.edu.au, E-mail: isanderson@student.unimelb.edu.au

We examine Simplified Models in which fermionic DM interacts with Standard Model (SM) fermions via the exchange of an s -channel scalar mediator. The single-mediator version of this model is not gauge invariant, and instead we must consider models with two scalar mediators which mix and interfere. The minimal gauge invariant scenario involves the mixing of a new singlet scalar with the Standard Model Higgs boson, and is tightly constrained. We construct two Higgs doublet model (2HDM) extensions of this scenario, where the singlet mixes with the 2nd Higgs doublet. Compared with the one doublet model, this provides greater freedommore » for the masses and mixing angle of the scalar mediators, and their coupling to SM fermions. We outline constraints on these models, and discuss Yukawa structures that allow enhanced couplings, yet keep potentially dangerous flavour violating processes under control. We examine the direct detection phenomenology of these models, accounting for interference of the scalar mediators, and interference of different quarks in the nucleus. Regions of parameter space consistent with direct detection measurements are determined.« less

Radiological dose in Muria peninsula from SB-LOCA event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sunarko; Suud, Zaki

2017-01-01

Dose assessment for accident condition is performed for Muria Peninsula region using source-term from Three-Mile Island unit 2 SB-LOCA accident. Xe-133, Kr-88, 1-131 and Cs-137 isotopes are considered in the calculation. The effluent is assumed to be released from a 50 m stack. Lagrangian particle dispersion method (LPDM) employing non-Gaussian dispersion coefficient in 3-dimensional mass-consistent wind-field is employed to obtain periodic surface-level concentration which is then time-integrated to obtain spatial distribution of ground-level dose. In 1-hour simulation, segmented plumes with 60 seconds duration with a total of 18.000 particles involved. Simulations using 6-hour worst-case meteorological data from Muria peninsula results in a peak external dose of around 1.668 mSv for low scenario and 6.892 mSv for high scenario in dry condition. In wet condition with 5 mm/hour and 10 mm/hour rain for the whole duration of the simulation provides only minor effect to dose. The peak external dose is below the regulatory limit of 50 mSv for effective skin dose from external gamma exposure.

Comprehensive Reactive Receiver Modeling for Diffusive Molecular Communication Systems: Reversible Binding, Molecule Degradation, and Finite Number of Receptors.

PubMed

Ahmadzadeh, Arman; Arjmandi, Hamidreza; Burkovski, Andreas; Schober, Robert

2016-10-01

This paper studies the problem of receiver modeling in molecular communication systems. We consider the diffusive molecular communication channel between a transmitter nano-machine and a receiver nano-machine in a fluid environment. The information molecules released by the transmitter nano-machine into the environment can degrade in the channel via a first-order degradation reaction and those that reach the receiver nano-machine can participate in a reversible bimolecular reaction with receiver receptor proteins. Thereby, we distinguish between two scenarios. In the first scenario, we assume that the entire surface of the receiver is covered by receptor molecules. We derive a closed-form analytical expression for the expected received signal at the receiver, i.e., the expected number of activated receptors on the surface of the receiver. Then, in the second scenario, we consider the case where the number of receptor molecules is finite and the uniformly distributed receptor molecules cover the receiver surface only partially. We show that the expected received signal for this scenario can be accurately approximated by the expected received signal for the first scenario after appropriately modifying the forward reaction rate constant. The accuracy of the derived analytical results is verified by Brownian motion particle-based simulations of the considered environment, where we also show the impact of the effect of receptor occupancy on the derived analytical results.

Characterizing the Public's Preferential Attitudes Toward End-of-Life Care Options: A Role for the Threshold Technique?

PubMed Central

Trafford Crump, R; Llewellyn-Thomas, H

2013-01-01

Objectives. To assess the Threshold Technique's (TT) feasibility in community-wide surveys of U.S. Medicare beneficiaries' preferences for end-of-life (EOL) care options. Study Setting. Study participants were community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries in four different regions in the United States. Study Design. During personal interviews, participants considered four EOL scenarios, each presenting a choice between a less intense and more intense care option. Data Collection. Participants selected their initially favored option. Depending on that choice, in the subsequent TT the length of life offered by the more intense option was systematically increased or decreased until the participant “switched” to his or her initially rejected option. Principal Findings. Participants were able to select an initially favored option (in 3 of the 4 scenarios; this was the less intense option). The majority of participants were able to engage with the subsequent TT. In all scenarios, regardless of the increase/decrease in the length of life offered by the more intense option, the majority of participants were unwilling to “switch” to their initially rejected option. Conclusions. In surveys of populations' preferential attitudes toward EOL care options, the TT was a feasible elicitation method, engaging most participants and measuring the strength of their attitudes. Further methodological work is merited, involving (1) populations with various participant characteristics, and (2) different attributes in the TT task itself. PMID:23444844

Realistic anomaly-mediated supersymmetry breaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacko, Zacharia; Luty, Markus A.; Maksymyk, Ivan; Pontón, Eduardo

2000-03-01

We consider supersymmetry breaking communicated entirely by the superconformal anomaly in supergravity. This scenario is naturally realized if supersymmetry is broken in a hidden sector whose couplings to the observable sector are suppressed by more than powers of the Planck scale, as occurs if supersymmetry is broken in a parallel universe living in extra dimensions. This scenario is extremely predictive: soft supersymmetry breaking couplings are completely determined by anomalous dimensions in the effective theory at the weak scale. Gaugino and scalar masses are naturally of the same order, and flavor-changing neutral currents are automatically suppressed. The most glaring problem with this scenario is that slepton masses are negative in the minimal supersymmetric standard model. We point out that this problem can be simply solved by coupling extra Higgs doublets to the leptons. Lepton flavor-changing neutral currents can be naturally avoided by approximate symmetries. We also describe more speculative solutions involving compositeness near the weak scale. We then turn to electroweak symmetry breaking. Adding an explicit μ term gives a value for Bμ that is too large by a factor of ~ 100. We construct a realistic model in which the μ term arises from the vacuum expectation value of a singlet field, so all weak-scale masses are directly related to m3/2. We show that fully realistic electroweak symmetry breaking can occur in this model with moderate fine-tuning.

An Event Driven Hybrid Identity Management Approach to Privacy Enhanced e-Health

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Guerrero, Rosa; Almenárez, Florina; Díaz-Sánchez, Daniel; Marín, Andrés; Arias, Patricia; Sanvido, Fabio

2012-01-01

Credential-based authorization offers interesting advantages for ubiquitous scenarios involving limited devices such as sensors and personal mobile equipment: the verification can be done locally; it offers a more reduced computational cost than its competitors for issuing, storing, and verification; and it naturally supports rights delegation. The main drawback is the revocation of rights. Revocation requires handling potentially large revocation lists, or using protocols to check the revocation status, bringing extra communication costs not acceptable for sensors and other limited devices. Moreover, the effective revocation consent—considered as a privacy rule in sensitive scenarios—has not been fully addressed. This paper proposes an event-based mechanism empowering a new concept, the sleepyhead credentials, which allows to substitute time constraints and explicit revocation by activating and deactivating authorization rights according to events. Our approach is to integrate this concept in IdM systems in a hybrid model supporting delegation, which can be an interesting alternative for scenarios where revocation of consent and user privacy are critical. The delegation includes a SAML compliant protocol, which we have validated through a proof-of-concept implementation. This article also explains the mathematical model describing the event-based model and offers estimations of the overhead introduced by the system. The paper focus on health care scenarios, where we show the flexibility of the proposed event-based user consent revocation mechanism. PMID:22778634

Break modeling for RELAP5 analyses of ISP-27 Bethsy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petelin, S.; Gortnar, O.; Mavko, B.

This paper presents pre- and posttest analyses of International Standard Problem (ISP) 27 on the Bethsy facility and separate RELAP5 break model tests considering the measured boundary condition at break inlet. This contribution also demonstrates modifications which have assured the significant improvement of model response in posttest simulations. Calculations were performed using the RELAP5/MOD2/36.05 and RELAP5/MOD3.5M5 codes on the MicroVAX, SUN, and CONVEX computers. Bethsy is an integral test facility that simulates a typical 900-MW (electric) Framatome pressurized water reactor. The ISP-27 scenario involves a 2-in. cold-leg break without HPSI and with delayed operator procedures for secondary system depressurization.

Development of DCGLs by using both probabilistic and deterministic analyses in RESRAD (onsite) and RESRAD-OFFSITE codes.

PubMed

Kamboj, Sunita; Yu, Charley; Johnson, Robert

2013-05-01

The Derived Concentration Guideline Levels for two building areas previously used in waste processing and storage at Argonne National Laboratory were developed using both probabilistic and deterministic radiological environmental pathway analysis. Four scenarios were considered. The two current uses considered were on-site industrial use and off-site residential use with farming. The two future uses (i.e., after an institutional control period of 100 y) were on-site recreational use and on-site residential use with farming. The RESRAD-OFFSITE code was used for the current-use off-site residential/farming scenario and RESRAD (onsite) was used for the other three scenarios. Contaminants of concern were identified from the past operations conducted in the buildings and the actual characterization done at the site. Derived Concentration Guideline Levels were developed for all four scenarios using deterministic and probabilistic approaches, which include both "peak-of-the-means" and "mean-of-the-peaks" analyses. The future-use on-site residential/farming scenario resulted in the most restrictive Derived Concentration Guideline Levels for most radionuclides.

The acceptability of conducting data linkage research without obtaining consent: lay people's views and justifications.

PubMed

Xafis, Vicki

2015-11-17

A key ethical issue arising in data linkage research relates to consent requirements. Patients' consent preferences in the context of health research have been explored but their consent preferences regarding data linkage specifically have been under-explored. In addition, the views on data linkage are often those of patient groups. As a result, little is known about lay people's views and their preferences about consent requirements in the context of data linkage. This study explores lay people's views and justifications regarding the acceptability of conducting data linkage research without obtaining consent. A qualitative study explored lay people's views regarding consent requirements in data linkage via four hypothetical data linkage scenarios of increasing complexity. Prior to considering the scenarios, participants were provided with information regarding best practice data linkage processes via discussion and a diagrammatic representation of the process. Lay people were able to understand the intricate processes involved in data linkage and the key protections afforded within a short amount of time. They were supportive of data linkage research and, on the whole, believed it should be conducted without consent provided a data linkage organization de-identifies the data used so that researchers do not handle identifiable data. Many thought that de-identified data holds a different status to identifiable data and should be used without specific consent in research that aims to benefit society. In weighing up conflicting values and interests, participants shifted consent preferences before arriving at their final consent preference for each scenario and provided justifications for their choices. They considered the protection of people's information, societal benefits, and the nature and constraints of research and recognized that these need to be balanced. With some exposure to the features of data linkage, lay people have the capacity to understand the processes sufficiently in order to consider ethical issues associated with consent preferences. Shifts in views reveal the complexity of such decisions. While privacy protection remained an important consideration for most participants, adequate protection measures adopted in best practice data linkage were viewed by most as protection enough for data linkage to proceed without specific individual consent.

The impact of sheep grazing on the carbon balance of a peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fred, F.; Clay, G. D.

2012-04-01

This study estimates the greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes resulting from sheep grazing upon upland peat soils. Previous studies have been limited to individual flux pathways or to comparing the presence to the absence of sheep grazing. Therefore, this study combines a model of the physical impact of grazing with models of: biomass production; energy usage in sheep; and peat accumulation. These combined modelling approaches enables this study to consider the indirect and direct impacts of sheep upon the carbon and greenhouse gas balance of a peatland at different grazing intensities as well as the changes between states of grazing. The study considered four vegetation scenarios (Calluna sp., Molinia sp.; reseeded grasses, and Agrostis-Festuca grassland) and a mixed vegetation scenario based upon the vegetation typical of upland peat ecosystems in northern England. Each scenario was considered for altitudes between 350 and 900 m above sea level and for grazing intensities between 0.1 and 2 ewes/ha. The study can show that the total GHG flux at the vegetative carrying capacity tended to decline with increasing altitude for all vegetation scenarios considered except for Molinia sp. The average total GHG flux for all scenarios was 1350 kg CO2eq/ha/yr/ewe/ha, and on average 91% of the fluxes were directly from the sheep and not from the soil ,and are therefore not unique to a peat soil environment. The study suggests that emissions factors for upland sheep have been greatly underestimated. By comparing the total flux due to grazers to the flux to or from the soil allows the study to define a GHG carry capacity. i.e. the grazing intensity at which the flux due to grazing is equal to the sink represented by the peat soils, this GHG carrying capacity varies between 0.2 and 1.7 ewes/ha with this capacity declining with increasing altitude for all model scenarios.

Impact of Unconventional Energy Development using Hydraulic Fracturing on Louisiana Water Resources Availability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unruh, H. G., Sr.; Habib, E. H.; Borrok, D. M.

2017-12-01

Unconventional oil and gas extraction around United States has been deployed significantly in the recent years. The current study focuses on the impact of Hydraulic fracturing (HF) on the sustainability of water resources in Louisiana. This impact is measured by quantifying the stress for current and future scenarios of HF water use in the two-main shale plays in Louisiana, the Haynesville and Tuscaloosa. The assessment is conducted at the HUC-12 fine catchment spatial scale. Initially, sectored stress metrics were calculated for surface and groundwater, respectively, without including HF water use. Demand sectors involved in this first stress estimation are power generation, public supply, industrial, etc. Once both stress metrics were estimated with the reported water sources and uses in Louisiana corresponding to the 2010 year, several scenarios for both sources were evaluated. In the first scenario, a peak year (2011) of HF water use was added as a water demand new category into the stress calculation matrices. The results indicate that a significant variability in the calculated stress metric with and without HF is reflected only for the groundwater sector. On the other hand, surface water sector doesn't seem to be affected for the HF water use. However, this apparent abundant surface water in the catchment, the location of the wells is not always adjacent to the body of water, and then trucking or piping of water may be required. For this reason, availability of groundwater in situ is a relevant factor in terms of production cost. Additional tested scenarios consist of increasing the number of wells in both shale play locations. Existing wells scenario calculates the stress including the water use of the total number of wells that currently exist in both shale plays in a short period (one year). The other additional tested scenario consists of increase of 100% of the required number of wells to extract the expected total shale play capacity. Results of the additional scenarios follow the same pattern as the first scenario. This analysis can be useful for water management authorities to consider recycled flow-back as an alternative resource for HF water use. Additionally, a cost analysis can be developed in a future study analyzing the economic feasibility of treating and reusing the wastewater as a source in the HF process.

Climatic and agricultural drivers of soil erosion in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irvine, Brian; Kirkby, Mike; Fleskens, Luuk

2015-04-01

Soil erosion was the most frequently identified driver of land degradation across a selection of global research sites within the DESIRE-EU project. The PESERA model was adopted in the project to upscale field results and consider the potential biophysical impact both with and without stakeholder selected sustainable land management (SLM) technologies in place. The PESERA model was combined with the DESMICE economic model and focussed on forecasting the regional effects of combating desertification both in environmental and socio-economical terms. The PESERA-DESMICE approach is further developed in the WAHARA project to consider the potential of a range of water harvesting technologies to improve biophysical conditions. Modelling in the WAHARA project considers detail of water harvesting technologies at the study site scale through to a coarser application at the continental scale with the latter being informed by the detail provided by study site observations an approach adopted in DESIRE-EU. The PESERA-DESMICE approach considers the difference between a baseline scenario and a (water harvesting) technology scenario at both scales in terms of productivity, financial viability and scope for reducing erosion risk. This paper considers the continental scale and focuses on estimating the impact of in-situ water harvesting technologies across Africa under current and future agricultural and climate pressure. PESERA is adopted in this continental application as it implicitly considers the impact of land-use and climate and can be readily amended to simulate in-situ WHT. Input data for PESERA; land use, management (crop type and planting dates), soil data and topography are derived from global data resources. Climate data for present and future scenarios are available through the QUEST-GSI initiative, where future scenarios are based on the outputs of seven GCM's.

Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weatherly, D.

1984-01-01

Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

q-deformed Einstein's model to describe specific heat of solid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guha, Atanu; Das, Prasanta Kumar

2018-04-01

Realistic phenomena can be described more appropriately using generalized canonical ensemble, with proper parameter sets involved. We have generalized the Einstein's theory for specific heat of solid in Tsallis statistics, where the temperature fluctuation is introduced into the theory via the fluctuation parameter q. At low temperature the Einstein's curve of the specific heat in the nonextensive Tsallis scenario exactly lies on the experimental data points. Consequently this q-modified Einstein's curve is found to be overlapping with the one predicted by Debye. Considering only the temperature fluctuation effect(even without considering more than one mode of vibration is being triggered) we found that the CV vs T curve is as good as obtained by considering the different modes of vibration as suggested by Debye. Generalizing the Einstein's theory in Tsallis statistics we found that a unique value of the Einstein temperature θE along with a temperature dependent deformation parameter q(T) , can well describe the phenomena of specific heat of solid i.e. the theory is equivalent to Debye's theory with a temperature dependent θD.

Patients' views of consent in clinical trials for acute myocardial infarction: impact of trial design.

PubMed

Dickert, Neal W; Hendershot, Kristopher A; Speight, Candace D; Fehr, Alexandra E

2017-08-01

Seeking prospective informed consent is difficult in clinical trials for emergent conditions such as acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Prior data suggest that enrolment decisions of patients are often poorly informed in AMI trials but that patients prefer to be asked permission before enrolment. It is unknown whether this is true across trial designs or in comparative effectiveness research (CER) with approved treatments. Structured interviews were conducted with 30 patients with AMI. Participants considered three scenarios: (1) a CER trial of approved antiplatelet drugs; (2) a placebo-controlled trial of a novel drug to reduce myocardial injury and (3) a CER trial of an intra-aortic balloon pump versus medication. Participants were asked their desired involvement in enrolment decisions and willingness to participate. Descriptive analysis was performed of Likert scale data, and qualitative descriptive analysis was performed of textual data. Across scenarios, most participants (73%-80%) preferred to be asked permission prior to trial enrolment. Reasons for involvement included wanting to be the decision maker and a desire for transparency. Willingness to enrol was affected by trial type. Fewer participants stated they would likely enrol in a CER procedural trial than in a CER trial of approved medications (p=0.012). These findings suggest that patients prefer prospective involvement in enrolment decisions to enrolment without consent across trial types. However, their desire to participate was affected by trial type. There is a need to develop and evaluate context-sensitive approaches to consent in AMI trials that account for both the acuity of the situation and trial characteristics. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Moral Judgments of In-Group and Out-Group Harm in Post-conflict Urban and Rural Croatian Communities

PubMed Central

Moncrieff, Michael A.; Lienard, Pierre

2018-01-01

Our research brings to light features of the social world that impact moral judgments and how they do so. The moral vignette data presented were collected in rural and urban Croatian communities that were involved to varying degrees in the Croatian Homeland War. We argue that rapid shifts in moral accommodations during periods of violent social strife can be explained by considering the role that coordination and social agents' ability to reconfigure their social network (i.e., relational mobility) play in moral reasoning. Social agents coordinate on (moral) norms, a general attitude which broadly facilitates cooperation, and makes possible the collective enforcement of compliance. During social strife interested parties recalibrate their determination of others' moral standing and recast their established moral circle, in accordance with their new or prevailing social investments. To that extent, social coordination—and its particular promoters, inhibitors, and determinants—effects significant changes in individuals' ranking of moral priorities. Results indicate that rural participants evaluate the harmful actions of third parties more harshly than urban participants. Coordination mediates that relationship between social environment and moral judgment. Coordination also matters more for the moral evaluation of the harmful actions of moral scenarios involving characters belonging to different social units than for scenarios involving characters belonging to the same group. Participants high in relational mobility—that ability to recompose one's social network—moralize similarly wrongdoings perpetrated by both in- and out-group members. Those low in relational mobility differentiate when an out-group member causes the harm. Additionally, perceptions of third-party guilt are also affected by specifics of the social environment. Overall, we find that social coordination and relational mobility affect moral reasoning more so than ethnic commitment. PMID:29527183

A case study of ethanol water demand during industrial phase in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandes, T.; Scarpare, F. V.; Guarenghi, M.; Pereira, T.; Galdos, M. V.

2012-12-01

Thayse A. D. Hernandesb, Fábio V. Scarparea, Marjorie M. Guarenghib, Tássia P. Pereirab, Marcelo V. Galdosa a Laboratório Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia do Bioetanol - CTBE/CNPEM, Caixa Postal 6170, 13083-970 Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil, E-mail: fabio.scarpare@bioetanol.org.br b Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica, Unicamp, Cidade Universitária "Zeferino Vaz", CEP 13083-860, Campinas, SP, Brazil In São Paulo State, the water resources have being used by sugarcane industry responsibly, through high reuse rates that may reach 95% during industrial process. The average amount of catchment water stays around 2.0 m3 Mg 1 of industrial sugarcane stalk. However, in some modern mills which use higher technical level of closed water circuit, the standard goal for sugarcane industry, 1.0 m3 Mg 1 can be reached. In some regions where the uptake water for industrial segment is high as in São Paulo State, water use assessment is desired for sustainable ethanol production. Thus, two regions in São Paulo State with two plants each were taken as a case study aiming to assess ethanol water demand during the industrial phase. Araraquara was the first study region where the water demand was classified as in critical condition in 2010 according to the Water and Electrical Energy Department of São Paulo State (DAEE). The industrial activities were responsible for 50% of the water catchment. Araçatuba was the second study region where water demand was classified as being of concern (DAEE) due to high percentage of catchment water for industrial activities, around 90%. Data regarding the amount of millable cane processed, days of the plant operation, ratio of cane used for ethanol production in 2010/2011 season were used for direct water demand estimation considering different water catchment scenarios of 2.0, 1.0 and 0.7 (technological development prediction scenario) m3 Mg-1 of millable cane. For indirect water demand estimation, data regarding installed capacity of each unit and ethanol production efficiency (number of liters per millable ton of cane) were used considering the same water catchment scenarios. In terms of absolute values, mills in Araçatuba showed higher water consumption than in Araraquara (0.24 and 0.17 m3 s-1 respectively) for water catchment scenarios of 2.0 m3 Mg-1. Regarding the water use per ethanol produced (liter of water use per liter of ethanol produced), mills in Araçatuba also showed higher values, 0.035 than in Araraquara, 0.014 around 60%. Considering all scenarios, the industrial water demand for ethanol production was always the double for Araçatuba due a higher amount of collected water in that region. In the current water uptake scenario (2.0 m3 Mg-1), the mills involvement in industrial water demand was 22% in Araçatuba and 10% in Araraquara. Taking into account the total water demand in both regions, the amount of water demand for ethanol production was 21% and 5% respectively for Araçatuba and Araraquara. In the future, when the water uptake scenario will reach 0.7 m3 Mg-1 it will provide a 65% saving of water in both regions. Our results suggest that the ethanol industry did not represent high pressure on water resources in those analyzed regions.

Robustness of assembly supply chain networks by considering risk propagation and cascading failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Liang; Jing, Ke; He, Jie; Stanley, H. Eugene

2016-10-01

An assembly supply chain network (ASCN) is composed of manufacturers located in different geographical regions. To analyze the robustness of this ASCN when it suffers from catastrophe disruption events, we construct a cascading failure model of risk propagation. In our model, different disruption scenarios s are considered and the probability equation of all disruption scenarios is developed. Using production capability loss as the robustness index (RI) of an ASCN, we conduct a numerical simulation to assess its robustness. Through simulation, we compare the network robustness at different values of linking intensity and node threshold and find that weak linking intensity or high node threshold increases the robustness of the ASCN. We also compare network robustness levels under different disruption scenarios.

Shared decision-making in neonatology: an utopia or an attainable goal?

PubMed

D'Aloja, Ernesto; Floris, Laura; Muller, Mima; Birocchi, Francesca; Fanos, Vassilios; Paribello, Francesco; Demontis, Roberto

2010-10-01

Medical decision making is sometimes considered as a relatively simple process in which a decision may be made by the physician, by the patient, or by both patient and physician working together. There are three main models of decision making--paternalism, patient informed choice, and shared decision-making (SDM), having each one of these drawbacks and limitations. Historically, the most adopted one was the paternalism (strongly 'Doctor knows best'), where the professional made the decision based on what he/she considered to be as the patient's best interest, not necessarily contemplating patient's will and wishes. Currently, at the antipodes, the patient informed choice, where the patient makes his/her decision based on information received from the physician with no possible interference of professional's own preferences, seems to be the preferred relationship standard. SDM represents an intermediate approach between the two above-mentioned opposite models, being a medical process that involves actively the doctor and the patient who both bring their own facts and preferences to reach an agreement on the decision on if, when and how to treat a disease. This model, being characterized by elements pertaining to both the others, is gaining popularity in several medical and surgical scenarios whenever a competent patient is able to actively participate into the decisional process. On this basis can this model be implemented also in a Neonatology Intensive Care Unit where little patients are--by nature--incompetent, being the diagnostic/therapeutic choices taken by parents? We focused on this complex item considering four possible different scenarios and it seems to us that it could be possible to introduce such an approach, providing that parents' empowerment, a good physician's communication skill and consideration of all cultural, religious, economic, and ethic values of every single actor have been fairly taken into account.

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

PubMed

Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

2015-11-01

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management options across wide-ranging conditions.

Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

PubMed

Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

2008-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

Considering the worst-case metabolic scenario, but training to the typical-case competitive scenario: response to Amtmann (2012).

PubMed

Del Vecchio, Fabrício Boscolo; Franchini, Emerson

2013-08-01

This response to Amtmann's letter emphasizes that the knowledge of the typical time structure, as well as its variation, together with the main goal of the mixed martial arts athletes--to win by knock out or submission--need to be properly considered during the training sessions. Example with other combat sports are given and discussed, especially concerning the importance of adapting the physical conditioning workouts to the technical-tactical profile of the athlete and not the opposite.

Ethics Instruction in Undergraduate Astronomy and Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilachowski, Catherine A.; van Zee, L.; Bacher, A. D.; Durisen, R. H.

2009-01-01

Instruction in research ethics is now included as part of the formal undergraduate curriculum in astronomy and physics at Indiana University. Traditionally, students learn research ethics through informal mentoring by research advisors. However, a more formal approach is encouraged by funding agencies, professional societies, and common sense. Following the booklet, "On Being a Scientist: Responsible Conduct in Research" (1995, National Academy Press), our ethics program is built around a "case study" approach using scenarios involving real life situations that students are likely to encounter as undergraduates or beginning graduate students. Students discuss possible resolutions of the ethical questions involved. Discussion topics include reporting data, data rights, credit for ideas, and professional behavior. Scenarios for graduate students involve ethical concerns more appropriate for their career stage, including conflicts of interest, authorship, and collaboration. The answers are not clear-cut, and students must grapple with shades of gray to help them define what the limits of ethical behavior are. The scenarios are available on the Web at www.astro.indiana.edu/education/ethics.html

Periodic Phenomena In Laser-Ablation Plasma Plumes: A Self-Organization Scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gurlui, S.; Sanduloviciu, M.; Mihesan, C.

2006-01-15

Experimental evidence of the appearance of a proper periodic dynamics in a plasma plume created by pulsed laser ablation is considered as a hint for the presence of a self-organization scenario that explains similar phenomena observed in plasma diodes.

Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

Advantages of Fast Ignition Scenarios with Two Hot Spots for Space Propulsion Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shmatov, M. L.

The use of the fast ignition scenarios with the attempts to create two hot spots in one blob of the compressed thermonuclear fuel or, briefly, scenarios with two hot spots in space propulsion systems is proposed. The model, predicting that for such scenarios the probability pf of failure of ignition of thermonuclear microexplosion can be significantly less than that for the similar scenarios with the attempts to create one hot spot in one blob of the compressed fuel, is presented. For space propulsion systems consuming a relatively large amount of propellant, a decrease in pf due to the choice of the scenario with two hot spots can result in large, for example, two-fold, increase in the payload mass. Other advantages of the scenarios with two hot spots and some problems related to them are considered.

Impact of the biorefinery size on the logistics of corn stover supply – A scenario analysis

DOE PAGES

Wang, Yu; Ebadian, Mahmood; Sokhansanj, Shahab; ...

2017-03-23

In this study, three scenarios are considered to quantify the impact of the biorefinery size on the required biomass logistical resources. The biorefinery scenarios include small scale (175 dt/day)-SS, medium scale (520 dt/day)-MS and large scale (860 dt/day)-LS. These scenarios are compared against the following logistical resources (1) harvest area and contracted fields, (2) logistics equipment fleet and the workforce to run this fleet and (3) intermediate storage sites and their biomass inventory levels. To this end, the IBSAL-MC simulation model is applied to a corn stover logistics system in Southwestern Ontario. The obtained results show (1) the harvest areamore » and the number of contracted fields increase by 65% and 78% from the SS scenario to the MS and LS scenarios, respectively, (2) the average biomass delivered costs are estimated to be $82.09, $87.49 and $93.75/dry tonne in the SS, MS and LS scenarios. The increase in the capital costs to develop a dedicated logistics equipment fleet are estimated to be far greater than the increase in the delivered costs as the size of the biorefinery increases. The upfront capital costs are estimated to be 6.72 dollars, 21.83 and 35.51 million in these scenarios. To run the logistics equipment fleet efficiently, 37, 136 and 235 well-trained operators are required in the SS, MS ad LS scenarios, respectively, and (3) the inventory level and the land requirement for storage in the MS and LS scenarios are estimated to be 225% and 425% greater than those of the SS scenario. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the logistical resources are highly sensitive to corn yield and farm participation rate. Overall, this study shows the importance of considering the size of the required logistical resources and the associated level of logistical complexity in evaluating the economic viability of a biorefinery project.« less

Impact of the biorefinery size on the logistics of corn stover supply – A scenario analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yu; Ebadian, Mahmood; Sokhansanj, Shahab

In this study, three scenarios are considered to quantify the impact of the biorefinery size on the required biomass logistical resources. The biorefinery scenarios include small scale (175 dt/day)-SS, medium scale (520 dt/day)-MS and large scale (860 dt/day)-LS. These scenarios are compared against the following logistical resources (1) harvest area and contracted fields, (2) logistics equipment fleet and the workforce to run this fleet and (3) intermediate storage sites and their biomass inventory levels. To this end, the IBSAL-MC simulation model is applied to a corn stover logistics system in Southwestern Ontario. The obtained results show (1) the harvest areamore » and the number of contracted fields increase by 65% and 78% from the SS scenario to the MS and LS scenarios, respectively, (2) the average biomass delivered costs are estimated to be $82.09, $87.49 and $93.75/dry tonne in the SS, MS and LS scenarios. The increase in the capital costs to develop a dedicated logistics equipment fleet are estimated to be far greater than the increase in the delivered costs as the size of the biorefinery increases. The upfront capital costs are estimated to be 6.72 dollars, 21.83 and 35.51 million in these scenarios. To run the logistics equipment fleet efficiently, 37, 136 and 235 well-trained operators are required in the SS, MS ad LS scenarios, respectively, and (3) the inventory level and the land requirement for storage in the MS and LS scenarios are estimated to be 225% and 425% greater than those of the SS scenario. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the logistical resources are highly sensitive to corn yield and farm participation rate. Overall, this study shows the importance of considering the size of the required logistical resources and the associated level of logistical complexity in evaluating the economic viability of a biorefinery project.« less

Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser

2018-03-01

The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser

2018-04-01

The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

Strategic decision making under climate change: a case study on Lake Maggiore water system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micotti, M.; Soncini Sessa, R.; Weber, E.

2014-09-01

Water resources planning processes involve different kinds of decisions that are generally evaluated under a stationary climate scenario assumption. In general, the possible combinations of interventions are mutually compared as single alternatives. However, the ongoing climate change requires us to reconsider this approach. Indeed, what have to be compared are not individual alternatives, but families of alternatives, characterized by the same structural decisions, i.e. by actions that have long-term effects and entail irrevocable changes in the system. The rationale is that the structural actions, once they have been implemented, cannot be easily modified, while the management decisions can be adapted to the evolving conditions. This paper considers this methodological problem in a real case study, in which a strategic decision has to be taken: a new barrage was proposed to regulate Lake Maggiore outflow, but, alternatively, either the present barrage can be maintained with its present regulation norms or with a new one. The problem was dealt with by multi-criteria decision analysis involving many stakeholders and two decision-makers. An exhaustive set of indicators was defined in the participatory process, conducted under the integrated water resource management paradigm, and many efficient (in Pareto sense) regulation policies were identified. The paper explores different formulations of a global index to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of the classes of alternatives under both stationary and changing hydrological scenarios in order to assess their adaptability to the ongoing climate change.

The origins of dragon-kings and their occurrence in society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malkov, Artemy; Zinkina, Julia; Korotayev, Andrey

2012-11-01

A society is a medium with a complex structure of one-to-one relations between people. Those could be relations between friends, wife-husband relationships, relations between business partners, and so on. At a certain level of analysis, a society can be regarded as a gigantic maze constituted of one-to-one relationships between people. From a physical standpoint it can be considered as a highly porous medium. Such media are widely known for their outstanding properties and effects like self-organized criticality, percolation, power-law distribution of network cluster sizes, etc. In these media supercritical events, referred to as dragon-kings, may occur in two cases: when increasing stress is applied to a system (self-organized criticality scenario) or when increasing conductivity of a system is observed (percolation scenario). In social applications the first scenario is typical for negative effects: crises, wars, revolutions, financial breakdowns, state collapses, etc. The second scenario is more typical for positive effects like emergence of cities, growth of firms, population blow-ups, economic miracles, technology diffusion, social network formation, etc. If both conditions (increasing stress and increasing conductivity) are observed together, then absolutely miraculous dragon-king effects can occur that involve most human society. Historical examples of this effect are the emergence of the Mongol Empire, world religions, World War II, and the explosive proliferation of global internet services. This article describes these two scenarios in detail beginning with an overview of historical dragon-king events and phenomena starting from the early human history till the last decades and concluding with an analysis of their possible near future consequences on our global society. Thus we demonstrate that in social systems dragon-king is not a random outlier unexplainable by power-law statistics, but a natural effect. It is a very large cluster in a porous percolation medium. It occurs as a result of changes in external conditions, such as supercritical load, increase in system elements’ sensitivity, or system connectivity growth.

Mitigation strategies in the agro-food sector: The anaerobic digestion of tomato purée by-products. An Italian case study.

PubMed

Bacenetti, Jacopo; Duca, Daniele; Negri, Marco; Fusi, Alessandra; Fiala, Marco

2015-09-01

Tomato processing involves a significant production of residues, mainly constituted by discarded tomatoes, skins, seeds and pulp. Often, these residues are not valorized and represent an added cost for manufacturing companies because of disposal processes, with environmental issues due to the difficult management. The exploitation of these residual materials results complex as their availability is mainly concentrated in few months. A possible solution is the production of biogas employed in a Combine Heat and Power engine for energy production, in line with the 2020 targets of European Union in terms of promotion of energy from renewable resources and greenhouse gas emission reduction. The tomato by-product utilization for energy production as a strategy to reduce the environmental load of tomato purée was evaluated by means of Life Cycle Assessment. Two scenarios were considered: Baseline Scenario - tomato by-products are sent back to the tomato fields as organic fertilizers; Alternative Scenario - tomato by-products are employed in a nearby biogas plant for energy production. Methane production of tomato by-products was assessed by means of specific laboratory tests. The comparison between the two scenarios highlighted reductions for all the impact categories with the Alternative Scenario. The most important reductions are related to particulate matter (-5.3%), climate change (-6.4%) and ozone depletion (-13.4%). Although small, the reduction of the environmental impact cannot be neglected; for example for climate change, the anaerobic digestion of by-products allows a saving of GHG emissions that, over the whole year, is equal to 1.567 tons of CO2 eq. The results of this study could be up-scaled to the food industries with high heat demand producing considerable amounts of fermentable by-products employable as feedstock for biogas production. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part II: Simulation of long-period and broadband ground motions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Graves, Robert W.; Rodgers, Arthur; Brocher, Thomas M.; Simpson, Robert W.; Dreger, Douglas; Petersson, N. Anders; Larsen, Shawn C.; Ma, Shuo; Jachens, Robert C.

2010-01-01

We simulate long-period (T>1.0–2.0 s) and broadband (T>0.1 s) ground motions for 39 scenario earthquakes (Mw 6.7–7.2) involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. For rupture on the Hayward fault, we consider the effects of creep on coseismic slip using two different approaches, both of which reduce the ground motions, compared with neglecting the influence of creep. Nevertheless, the scenario earthquakes generate strong shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area, with about 50% of the urban area experiencing modified Mercalli intensity VII or greater for the magnitude 7.0 scenario events. Long-period simulations of the 2007 Mw 4.18 Oakland earthquake and the 2007 Mw 5.45 Alum Rock earthquake show that the U.S. Geological Survey’s Bay Area Velocity Model version 08.3.0 permits simulation of the amplitude and duration of shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area for Hayward fault earthquakes, with the greatest accuracy in the Santa Clara Valley (San Jose area). The ground motions for the suite of scenarios exhibit a strong sensitivity to the rupture length (or magnitude), hypocenter (or rupture directivity), and slip distribution. The ground motions display a much weaker sensitivity to the rise time and rupture speed. Peak velocities, peak accelerations, and spectral accelerations from the synthetic broadband ground motions are, on average, slightly higher than the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) ground-motion prediction equations. We attribute much of this difference to the seismic velocity structure in the San Francisco Bay area and how the NGA models account for basin amplification; the NGA relations may underpredict amplification in shallow sedimentary basins. The simulations also suggest that the Spudich and Chiou (2008) directivity corrections to the NGA relations could be improved by increasing the areal extent of rupture directivity with period.

Energy and Raw Materials in the Selection of Technologies for Iron and Steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortini, Otavio Macedo

2016-09-01

This paper discusses the selection of metal extraction technologies according to the regional availability of energy resources. The most important energy sources in iron and steel production are determined from a review of current technologies to inform possible future scenarios of capacity replacement or expansion according to geography. Alternative technologies are not discussed, considering that actual investment in capacity is most often dominated by high degrees of risk aversion. As such, only technologies proven at a reasonable scale are included in the selection matrix. Scenarios of capacity choice are defined in terms of actions from external agents, those which are not directly involved in the industry but have the capacity to regulate actions by metal producing players. Two extreme scenarios corresponding to closed and open economies are used to set bounds for future expectations. Among steelmaking processes under fully open trade conditions, it is found that EAF steelmaking with charge pre-heat should be the technology of choice in all regions of the world except for South America and Europe, where Integrated Steel Mills have a cost advantage. In fully closed exchange scenarios, Integrated Steel Mills would be the prevalent technology in South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, India, and the former USSR, EAF with scrap pre-heating prevailing in all other regions. On the other hand, HYL-ZR would be the iron making technology of choice in all regions under full exchange scenarios. Under fully closed exchange conditions, Mini-Blast Furnaces, COREX, and HYL-ZR would find regional applications. Increases in raw materials and energy costs of 38 pct in steelmaking and 63 pct in ironmaking are found in going from fully open to fully closed exchange regimes. It is also found that Southeast Asia is the most suitable region for deploying new steelmaking capacity, while Australia and Russia are the best selection for new iron making capacity.

Using Formative Scenario Analysis approach for landslide risk analysis in a relatively scarce data environment: preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zumpano, Veronica; Balteanu, Dan; Mazzorana, Bruno; Micu, Mihai

2014-05-01

It is increasingly important to provide to stakeholders tools that will enable them to better understand what is the state of the environment in which they live and manage and to help them to make decisions that aim to minimize the consequences of hydro-meteorological hazards. Very often, however, quantitative studies, especially for large areas, are difficult to perform. This is due to the fact that unfortunately isn't often possible to have the numerous data required to perform the analysis. In addition it has been proven that in scenario analysis, often deterministic approaches are not able to detect some features of the system revealing unexpected behaviors, and resulting in underestimation or omission of some impact factors. Here are presented some preliminary results obtained applying Formative Scenario Analysis that can be considered a possible solution for landslide risk analysis in cases where the data needed even if existent are not available. This method is an expert based approach that integrates intuitions and qualitative evaluations of impact factors with the quantitative analysis of relations between these factors: a group of experts with different but pertinent expertise, determine (by a rating procedure) quantitative relations between these factors, then through mathematical operations the scenarios describing a certain state of the system are obtained. The approach is applied to Buzau County (Romania), an area belonging to the Curvature Romanian Carpathians and Subcarpathians, a region strongly affected by environmental hazards. The region has been previously involved in numerous episodes of severe hydro-meteorological events that caused considerable damages (1975, 2005, 2006). In this application we are referring only to one type of landslides that can be described as shallow and medium-seated with a (mainly) translational movement that can go from slide to flow. The material involved can be either soil, debris or a mixture of both, in Romanian literature these typical movements has been described as alunecare curgatoare. The Formative Scenario Analysis approach will be applied for each component of risk (H,V,and A) and then the acquired states will be combined in order to obtain for obtaining a series of alternatives scenarios for risk. The approach is structured in two main sections corresponding to a level of influence of conditioning factors and a response. In this latter are obtained the results of the formative scenario approach trained with the conditioning factors of the first level. These factors are divided in two subsets representing 2 levels of influences, k=1 comprises the global factors while in k=2 one finds local factors. In order to include uncertainty estimation within the analysis the method of knowledge representation type-1 fuzzy sets is introduced and hence decisions made by experts on certain events are expressed in terms of triangular fuzzy numbers.

Ten factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks for health information technology.

PubMed

Russ, Alissa L; Saleem, Jason J

2018-02-01

The quality of usability testing is highly dependent upon the associated usability scenarios. To promote usability testing as part of electronic health record (EHR) certification, the Office of the National Coordinator (ONC) for Health Information Technology requires that vendors test specific capabilities of EHRs with clinical end-users and report their usability testing process - including the test scenarios used - along with the results. The ONC outlines basic expectations for usability testing, but there is little guidance in usability texts or scientific literature on how to develop usability scenarios for healthcare applications. The objective of this article is to outline key factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks to evaluate computer-interface based health information technologies. To achieve this goal, we draw upon a decade of our experience conducting usability tests with a variety of healthcare applications and a wide range of end-users, to include healthcare professionals as well as patients. We discuss 10 key factors that influence scenario development: objectives of usability testing; roles of end-user(s); target performance goals; evaluation time constraints; clinical focus; fidelity; scenario-related bias and confounders; embedded probes; minimize risks to end-users; and healthcare related outcome measures. For each factor, we present an illustrative example. This article is intended to aid usability researchers and practitioners in their efforts to advance health information technologies. The article provides broad guidance on usability scenario development and can be applied to a wide range of clinical information systems and applications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Assessing medicare beneficiaries’ strength‐of‐preference scores for health care options: how engaging does the elicitation technique need to be?

PubMed Central

Crump, Trafford; Llewellyn‐Thomas, Hilary A.

2011-01-01

Abstract Objective  The objective was to determine if participants’ strength‐of‐preference scores for elective health care interventions at the end‐of‐life (EOL) elicited using a non‐engaging technique are affected by their prior use of an engaging elicitation technique. Design  Medicare beneficiaries were randomly selected from a larger survey sample. During a standardized interview, participants considered four scenarios involving a choice between a relatively less‐ or more‐intense EOL intervention. For each scenario, participants indicated their favoured intervention, then used a 7‐point Leaning Scale (LS1) to indicate how strongly they preferred their favoured intervention relative to the alternative. Next, participants engaged in a Threshold Technique (TT), which, depending on the participant’s initially favoured intervention, systematically altered a particular attribute of the scenario until the participant switched preferences. Finally, they repeated the LS (LS2) to indicate how strongly they preferred their initially‐favoured intervention. Results  Two hundred and two participants were interviewed (189–198 were included in this study). The concordance of individual participants’ LS1 and LS2 scores was assessed using Kendall tau‐b correlation coefficients; scores of 0.74, 0.84, 0.85 and 0.89 for scenarios 1–4, respectively, were observed. Conclusion  Kendall tau‐b statistics indicate a high concordance between LS scores, implying that the interposing engaging TT exercise had no significant effects on the LS2 strength‐of‐preference scores. Future investigators attempting to characterize the distributions of strength‐of‐preference scores for EOL care from a large, diverse community could use non‐engaging elicitation methods. The potential limitations of this study require that further investigation be conducted into this methodological issue. PMID:21323819

Construction of nonsingular pre-big-bang and ekpyrotic cosmologies and the resulting density perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsujikawa, Shinji; Brandenberger, Robert; Finelli, Fabio

2002-10-01

We consider the construction of nonsingular pre-big-bang and ekpyrotic type cosmological models realized by the addition to the action of specific higher-order terms stemming from quantum corrections. We study models involving general relativity coupled to a single scalar field with a potential motivated by the ekpyrotic scenario. We find that the inclusion of the string loop and quantum correction terms in the string frame makes it possible to obtain solutions of the variational equations which are nonsingular and bouncing in the Einstein frame, even when a negative exponential potential is present, as is the case in the ekpyrotic scenario. This allows us to discuss the evolution of cosmological perturbations without the need to invoke matching conditions between two Einstein universes, one representing the contracting branch, the second the expanding branch. We analyze the spectra of perturbations produced during the bouncing phase and find that the spectrum of curvature fluctuations in the model proposed originally to implement the ekpyrotic scenario has a large blue tilt (nR=3). Except for instabilities introduced on small scales, the result agrees with what is obtained by imposing continuity of the induced metric and of the extrinsic curvature across a constant scalar field (up to k2 corrections equal to the constant energy density) matching surface between the contracting and the expanding Einstein universes. We also discuss nonsingular cosmological solutions obtained when a Gauss-Bonnet term with a coefficient suitably dependent on the scalar matter field is added to the action in the Einstein frame with a potential for the scalar field present. In this scenario, nonsingular solutions are found which start in an asymptotically flat state, undergo a period of superexponential inflation, and end with a graceful exit. The spectrum of fluctuations is also calculated in this case.

Targeting the impact of agri-environmental policy - Future scenarios in two less favoured areas in Portugal.

PubMed

Jones, Nadia; Fleskens, Luuk; Stroosnijder, Leo

2016-10-01

Targeting agri-environmental measures (AEM) improves their effectiveness in the delivery of public goods, provided the necessary coordination with other incentives. In less favoured areas (LFA) measures focusing on the conservation of extensive farming contribute to sustainable land management in these areas. In this paper we investigate the implementation of a possible AEM supporting the improvement of permanent pastures coordinated with the extensive livestock and single farm payments actually in place. Through applying a spatially-explicit mixed integer optimisation model we simulate future land use scenarios for two less favoured areas in Portugal (Centro and Alentejo) considering two policy scenarios: a 'targeted AEM', and a 'non-targeted AEM'. We then compare the results with a 'basic policy' option (reflecting a situation without AEM). This is done with regard to landscape-scale effects on the reduction of fire hazard and erosion risk, as well as effects on farm income. The results show that an AEM for permanent pastures would be more cost-effective for erosion and fire hazard mitigation if implemented within a spatially targeted framework. However when cost-effectiveness is assessed with other indicators (e.g. net farm income and share of grazing livestock) 'non-targeted AEM' implementation delivers the best outcome in Alentejo. In Centro the implementation of an AEM involves important losses of income compared to the 'basic policy'. 'Targeted AEM' tends to favour farms in very marginal conditions, i.e. targeting is demonstrated to perform best in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is higher. The results also show the risk of farm abandonment in the two studied less favoured areas: in all three scenarios more than 30% of arable land is deemed to be abandoned. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

User needs elicitation via analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A case study on a Computed Tomography (CT) scanner.

PubMed

Pecchia, Leandro; Martin, Jennifer L; Ragozzino, Angela; Vanzanella, Carmela; Scognamiglio, Arturo; Mirarchi, Luciano; Morgan, Stephen P

2013-01-05

The rigorous elicitation of user needs is a crucial step for both medical device design and purchasing. However, user needs elicitation is often based on qualitative methods whose findings can be difficult to integrate into medical decision-making. This paper describes the application of AHP to elicit user needs for a new CT scanner for use in a public hospital. AHP was used to design a hierarchy of 12 needs for a new CT scanner, grouped into 4 homogenous categories, and to prepare a paper questionnaire to investigate the relative priorities of these. The questionnaire was completed by 5 senior clinicians working in a variety of clinical specialisations and departments in the same Italian public hospital. Although safety and performance were considered the most important issues, user needs changed according to clinical scenario. For elective surgery, the five most important needs were: spatial resolution, processing software, radiation dose, patient monitoring, and contrast medium. For emergency, the top five most important needs were: patient monitoring, radiation dose, contrast medium control, speed run, spatial resolution. AHP effectively supported user need elicitation, helping to develop an analytic and intelligible framework of decision-making. User needs varied according to working scenario (elective versus emergency medicine) more than clinical specialization. This method should be considered by practitioners involved in decisions about new medical technology, whether that be during device design or before deciding whether to allocate budgets for new medical devices according to clinical functions or according to hospital department.

Development Of An Agroforestry Sequestration Project In KhammamDistrict Of India

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sudha, P.; Ramprasad, V.; Nagendra, M.D.V.

2007-06-01

Large potential for agroforestry as a mitigation option hasgiven rise to scientific and policy questions. This paper addressesmethodological issues in estimating carbon sequestration potential,baseline determination, additionality and leakage in Khammam district,Andhra Pradesh, southern part of India. Technical potential forafforestation was determined considering the various landuse options. Forestimating the technical potential, culturable wastelands, fallow andmarginal croplands were considered for Eucalyptus clonal plantations.Field studies for aboveground and below ground biomass, woody litter andsoil organic carbon for baseline and project scenario were conducted toestimate the carbon sequestration potential. The baseline carbon stockwas estimated to be 45.33 tC/ha. The additional carbon sequestrationpotential under themore » project scenario for 30 years is estimated to be12.82 tC/ha/year inclusive of harvest regimes and carbon emissions due tobiomass burning and fertilizer application. The project scenario thoughhas a higher benefit cost ratio compared to baseline scenario, initialinvestment cost is high. Investment barrier exists for adoptingagroforestry in thedistrict.« less

Heavy truck pre-crash scenarios for safety applications based on vehicle-to-vehicle communications

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-06-01

This report describes pre-crash scenarios involving at least one heavy truck (gross vehicle weight rating greater than 10,000 pounds), which might be addressed with crash-imminent warning systems based on short range vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communic...

Economic evaluation of the breast cancer screening programme in the Basque Country: retrospective cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis.

PubMed

Arrospide, Arantzazu; Rue, Montserrat; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T; Comas, Merce; Soto-Gordoa, Myriam; Sarriugarte, Garbiñe; Mar, Javier

2016-06-01

Breast cancer screening in the Basque Country has shown 20 % reduction of the number of BC deaths and an acceptable overdiagnosis level (4 % of screen detected BC). The aim of this study was to evaluate the breast cancer early detection programme in the Basque Country in terms of retrospective cost-effectiveness and budget impact from 1996 to 2011. A discrete event simulation model was built to reproduce the natural history of breast cancer (BC). We estimated for lifetime follow-up the total cost of BC (screening, diagnosis and treatment), as well as quality-adjusted life years (QALY), for women invited to participate in the evaluated programme during the 15-year period in the actual screening scenario and in a hypothetical unscreened scenario. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated with the use of aggregated costs. Besides, annual costs were considered for budget impact analysis. Both population level and single-cohort analysis were performed. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was applied to assess the impact of parameters uncertainty. The actual screening programme involved a cost of 1,127 million euros and provided 6.7 million QALYs over the lifetime of the target population, resulting in a gain of 8,666 QALYs for an additional cost of 36.4 million euros, compared with the unscreened scenario. Thus, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 4,214€/QALY. All the model runs in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio lower than 10,000€/QALY. The screening programme involved an increase of the annual budget of the Basque Health Service by 5.2 million euros from year 2000 onwards. The BC screening programme in the Basque Country proved to be cost-effective during the evaluated period and determined an affordable budget impact. These results confirm the epidemiological benefits related to the centralised screening system and support the continuation of the programme.

2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Potential Commercial Development Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Creech, Stephen D.; Rogacki, John R. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The presentation will discuss potential commercial development scenarios for a Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle. The analysis of potential scenarios will include commercial rates of return, government return on investment, and market considerations. The presentation will include policy considerations in addition to analysis of Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle economics. The data discussed is being developed as a part of NASA's Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program, for consideration as potential scenarios for enabling a next generation system. Material will include potential scenarios not previously considered by NASA or presented at other conferences. Candidate paper has not been presented at a previous meeting, and conference attendance of the author has been approved by NASA.

Future nutrient load scenarios for the Baltic Sea due to climate and lifestyle changes.

PubMed

Hägg, Hanna Eriksson; Lyon, Steve W; Wällstedt, Teresia; Mörth, Carl-Magnus; Claremar, Björn; Humborg, Christoph

2014-04-01

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.

Driving-forces model on individual behavior in scenarios considering moving threat agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei; Wang, Jia

2017-09-01

The individual behavior model is a contributory factor to improve the accuracy of agent-based simulation in different scenarios. However, few studies have considered moving threat agents, which often occur in terrorist attacks caused by attackers with close-range weapons (e.g., sword, stick). At the same time, many existing behavior models lack validation from cases or experiments. This paper builds a new individual behavior model based on seven behavioral hypotheses. The driving-forces model is an extension of the classical social force model considering scenarios including moving threat agents. An experiment was conducted to validate the key components of the model. Then the model is compared with an advanced Elliptical Specification II social force model, by calculating the fitting errors between the simulated and experimental trajectories, and being applied to simulate a specific circumstance. Our results show that the driving-forces model reduced the fitting error by an average of 33.9% and the standard deviation by an average of 44.5%, which indicates the accuracy and stability of the model in the studied situation. The new driving-forces model could be used to simulate individual behavior when analyzing the risk of specific scenarios using agent-based simulation methods, such as risk analysis of close-range terrorist attacks in public places.

Mimicking the surface and prebiotic chemistry of early Earth using flow chemistry.

PubMed

Ritson, Dougal J; Battilocchio, Claudio; Ley, Steven V; Sutherland, John D

2018-05-08

When considering life's aetiology, the first questions that must be addressed are "how?" and "where?" were ostensibly complex molecules, considered necessary for life's beginning, constructed from simpler, more abundant feedstock molecules on primitive Earth. Previously, we have used multiple clues from the prebiotic synthetic requirements of (proto)biomolecules to pinpoint a set of closely related geochemical scenarios that are suggestive of flow and semi-batch chemistries. We now wish to report a multistep, uninterrupted synthesis of a key heterocycle (2-aminooxazole) en route to activated nucleotides starting from highly plausible, prebiotic feedstock molecules under conditions which mimic this scenario. Further consideration of the scenario has uncovered additional pertinent and novel aspects of prebiotic chemistry, which greatly enhance the efficiency and plausibility of the synthesis.

The “I” in us, or the eye on us? Regulatory focus, commitment and derogation of an attractive alternative person

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

When individuals are highly committed to their romantic relationship, they are more likely to engage in pro-relationship maintenance mechanisms. The present research expanded on the notion that commitment redirects self-oriented goals to consider broader relational goals and examined whether commitment interacts with a promotion and prevention focus to activate derogation of attractive alternatives. Three studies used cross-sectional and experimental approaches. Study 1 showed that romantically involved individuals predominantly focused on promotion, but not prevention, reported less initial attraction to an attractive target than single individuals, especially when highly committed to their relationship. Study 2 showed that romantically involved individuals induced in a promotion focus, compared to those in prevention focus, reported less initial attraction, but only when more committed to their relationship. Regardless of regulatory focus manipulation, more committed individuals were also less likely to perceive quality among alternative scenarios and to be attentive to alternative others in general. Finally, Study 3 showed that romantically involved individuals induced in promotion focus and primed with high commitment reported less initial attraction, than those primed with low commitment, or than those induced in prevention focus. Once again, for these latter no differences occurred according to commitment prime. Together, the findings suggest that highly committed promotion focused individuals consider broader relationship goals and activate relationship maintenance behaviors such as derogation of attractive alternatives to promote their relationship. PMID:28319147

Hypothesis of Lithocoding: Origin of the Genetic Code as a "Double Jigsaw Puzzle" of Nucleobase-Containing Molecules and Amino Acids Assembled by Sequential Filling of Apatite Mineral Cellules.

PubMed

Skoblikow, Nikolai E; Zimin, Andrei A

2016-05-01

The hypothesis of direct coding, assuming the direct contact of pairs of coding molecules with amino acid side chains in hollow unit cells (cellules) of a regular crystal-structure mineral is proposed. The coding nucleobase-containing molecules in each cellule (named "lithocodon") partially shield each other; the remaining free space determines the stereochemical character of the filling side chain. Apatite-group minerals are considered as the most preferable for this type of coding (named "lithocoding"). A scheme of the cellule with certain stereometric parameters, providing for the isomeric selection of contacting molecules is proposed. We modelled the filling of cellules with molecules involved in direct coding, with the possibility of coding by their single combination for a group of stereochemically similar amino acids. The regular ordered arrangement of cellules enables the polymerization of amino acids and nucleobase-containing molecules in the same direction (named "lithotranslation") preventing the shift of coding. A table of the presumed "LithoCode" (possible and optimal lithocodon assignments for abiogenically synthesized α-amino acids involved in lithocoding and lithotranslation) is proposed. The magmatic nature of the mineral, abiogenic synthesis of organic molecules and polymerization events are considered within the framework of the proposed "volcanic scenario".

Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: a case study of flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, Robert J.

Analysis of the response to climate change and sea-level rise requires a link from climate change science to the resulting impacts and their policy implications. This paper explores the impacts of sea-level rise, particularly increased coastal flooding due to storm surges. In particular, it asks the simple question “how much will projected global sea-level rise exacerbate coastal flood problems, if ignored?” This is an important question to the intergovernmental process considering climate change. Further many countries presently ignore sea-level rise in long-term coastal planning, even though global sea levels are presently slowly rising. Using the model of Nicholls et al. [Global Environmental Change 9 (1999) S69], the analysis considers the flood impacts of sea-level rise on an “IS92a world” based on a consistent set of scenarios of global-mean sea-level rise, subsidence (where appropriate), coastal population change (usually increase), and flood defence standards (derived from GDP/capita). Two of the protection scenarios consider the possible upgrade of flood defences, but no allowance for global-mean sea-level rise is allowed to ensure consistency with the question being investigated. This model has been validated against national- and regional-scale assessments indicating that the relative results are reasonable, and the absolute results are of the right order of magnitude. The model estimates that 10 million people experienced flooding annually in 1990. It also predicts that the incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise due to changes to the other three factors. Taking the full range of scenarios considered by 2100 the number of people flooded could be from 0.4 to 39 million/year. All the sea-level rise scenarios would cause an increase in flooding during the 21st century if measures to adapt to sea-level rise are not taken. However, there are significant uncertainties and the number of people who are estimated to experience flooding in 2100 is 16-388 million for the mid (55-cm) global-mean sea-level rise scenarios, and up to 510 million people/year for the high (96-cm) scenario. These results suggest that sea-level rise could be a significant problem if it is ignored, and hence it needs to be considered within the policy process considering climate change in terms of mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (improved coastal management and planning) needs.

ICT Student Teachers' Judgments and Justifications about Ethical Issues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alakurt, Turgay; Bardakci, Salih; Keser, Hafize

2012-01-01

In this study, Turkish ICT student teachers' judgments and justifications in four scenarios involving ICT-related ethical problems were investigated. Scenarios were designed based on Mason's (1986) four ethical issues: privacy, accuracy, property and accessibility. The study was carried out in the fall of 2010. We used the critical incidents…

Description of light-vehicle pre-crash scenarios for safety applications based on vehicle-to-vehicle communications

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-05-31

This report describes pre-crash scenarios that might be addressed by vehicle-to-vehicle communications. The focus is on crashes involving at least 1 light vehicle with a gross vehicle weight rating of 10,000 pounds or less. The 2004-2008 General Esti...

A Scenario Approach to Assessment of New Communications Media.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spangler, Kathleen; And Others

In a study supported by the Charles F. Kettering Foundation, a research team developed a methodology for illustrating the effective and ineffective uses of audio, video, and computer teleconferencing by developing scenarios for eacb medium. The group first invented a general situation--a conference involving participants with global, regional, and…

Quantifying the economic competitiveness of cellulosic biofuel pathways under uncertainty and regional sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Tristan R.

The revised Renewable Fuel Standard requires the annual blending of 16 billion gallons of cellulosic biofuel by 2022 from zero gallons in 2009. The necessary capacity investments have been underwhelming to date, however, and little is known about the likely composition of the future cellulosic biofuel industry as a result. This dissertation develops a framework for identifying and analyzing the industry's likely future composition while also providing a possible explanation for why investment in cellulosic biofuels capacity has been low to date. The results of this dissertation indicate that few cellulosic biofuel pathways will be economically competitive with petroleum on an unsubsidized basis. Of five cellulosic biofuel pathways considered under 20-year price forecasts with volatility, only two achieve positive mean 20-year net present value (NPV) probabilities. Furthermore, recent exploitation of U.S. shale gas reserves and the subsequent fall in U.S. natural gas prices have negatively impacted the economic competitiveness of all but two of the cellulosic biofuel pathways considered; only two of the five pathways achieve substantially higher 20-year NPVs under a post-shale gas economic scenario relative to a pre-shale gas scenario. The economic competitiveness of cellulosic biofuel pathways with petroleum is reduced further when considered under price uncertainty in combination with realistic financial assumptions. This dissertation calculates pathway-specific costs of capital for five cellulosic biofuel pathway scenarios. The analysis finds that the large majority of the scenarios incur costs of capital that are substantially higher than those commonly assumed in the literature. Employment of these costs of capital in a comparative TEA greatly reduces the mean 20-year NPVs for each pathway while increasing their 10-year probabilities of default to above 80% for all five scenarios. Finally, this dissertation quantifies the economic competitiveness of six cellulosic biofuel pathways being commercialized in eight different U.S. states under price uncertainty, utilization of pathway-specific costs of capital, and region-specific economic factors. 10-year probabilities of default in excess of 60% are calculated for all eight location scenarios considered, with default probabilities in excess of 98% calculated for seven of the eight. Negative mean 20-year NPVs are calculated for seven of the eight location scenarios.

Understanding the Dynamics of Violent Political Revolutions in an Agent-Based Framework.

PubMed

Moro, Alessandro

2016-01-01

This paper develops an agent-based computational model of violent political revolutions in which a subjugated population of citizens and an armed revolutionary organisation attempt to overthrow a central authority and its loyal forces. The model replicates several patterns of rebellion consistent with major historical revolutions, and provides an explanation for the multiplicity of outcomes that can arise from an uprising. The relevance of the heterogeneity of scenarios predicted by the model can be understood by considering the recent experience of the Arab Spring involving several rebellions that arose in an apparently similar way, but resulted in completely different political outcomes: the successful revolution in Tunisia, the failed protests in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and civil war in Syria and Libya.

Consequences Identification in Forecasting and Ethical Decision-making

PubMed Central

Stenmark, Cheryl K.; Antes, Alison L.; Thiel, Chase E.; Caughron, Jared J.; Wang, Xiaoqian; Mumford, Michael D.

2015-01-01

Forecasting involves predicting outcomes based on observations of the situation at hand. We examined the impact of the number and types of consequences considered on the quality of ethical decision-making. Undergraduates role-played several ethical problems in which they forecast potential outcomes and made decisions. Performance pressure (difficult demands placed on the situation) and interpersonal conflict (clashes among people in the problem situation) were manipulated within each problem scenario. The results indicated that the identification of potential consequences was positively associated with both higher quality forecasts and more ethical decisions. Neither performance pressure nor interpersonal conflict affected the quality of forecasts or decisions. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings and the use of this research approach are discussed. PMID:21460584

Numerical Relativity Simulations for Black Hole Merger Astrophysics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, John G.

2010-01-01

Massive black hole mergers are perhaps the most energetic astronomical events, establishing their importance as gravitational wave sources for LISA, and also possibly leading to observable influences on their local environments. Advances in numerical relativity over the last five years have fueled the development of a rich physical understanding of general relativity's predictions for these events. Z will overview the understanding of these event emerging from numerical simulation studies. These simulations elucidate the pre-merger dynamics of the black hole binaries, the consequent gravitational waveform signatures ' and the resulting state, including its kick velocity, for the final black hole produced by the merger. Scenarios are now being considered for observing each of these aspects of the merger, involving both gravitational-wave and electromagnetic astronomy.

Understanding the Dynamics of Violent Political Revolutions in an Agent-Based Framework

PubMed Central

Moro, Alessandro

2016-01-01

This paper develops an agent-based computational model of violent political revolutions in which a subjugated population of citizens and an armed revolutionary organisation attempt to overthrow a central authority and its loyal forces. The model replicates several patterns of rebellion consistent with major historical revolutions, and provides an explanation for the multiplicity of outcomes that can arise from an uprising. The relevance of the heterogeneity of scenarios predicted by the model can be understood by considering the recent experience of the Arab Spring involving several rebellions that arose in an apparently similar way, but resulted in completely different political outcomes: the successful revolution in Tunisia, the failed protests in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and civil war in Syria and Libya. PMID:27104855

Study of future world markets for agricultural aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gobetz, F. W.; Assarabowski, R. J.

1979-01-01

The future world market for US-manufactured agricultural aircraft was studied and the technology needs for foreign markets were identified. Special emphasis was placed on the developing country market, but the developed countries and the communist group were also included in the forecasts. Aircraft needs were projected to the year 2000 by a method which accounted for field size, crop production, treated area, productivity, and attrition of the fleet. A special scenario involving a significant shift toward aerial fertilization was also considered. An operations analysis was conducted to compare the relative application costs of various existing and hypothetical future aircraft. A case study was made of Colombia as an example of a developing country in which aviation is emerging as an important industry.

Some inconvenient truths about biosignatures involving two chemical species on Earth-like exoplanets.

PubMed

Rein, Hanno; Fujii, Yuka; Spiegel, David S

2014-05-13

The detection of strong thermochemical disequilibrium in the atmosphere of an extrasolar planet is thought to be a potential biosignature. In this article we present a previously unidentified kind of false positive that can mimic a disequilibrium or any other biosignature that involves two chemical species. We consider a scenario where the exoplanet hosts a moon that has its own atmosphere and neither of the atmospheres is in chemical disequilibrium. Our results show that the integrated spectrum of the planet and the moon closely resembles that of a single object in strong chemical disequilibrium. We derive a firm limit on the maximum spectral resolution that can be obtained for both directly imaged and transiting planets. The spectral resolution of even idealized space-based spectrographs that might be achievable in the next several decades is in general insufficient to break the degeneracy. Both chemical species can only be definitively confirmed in the same object if absorption features of both chemicals can be unambiguously identified and their combined depth exceeds 100%.

Medication dispensing errors in Palestinian community pharmacy practice: a formal consensus using the Delphi technique.

PubMed

Shawahna, Ramzi; Haddad, Aseel; Khawaja, Baraa; Raie, Rand; Zaneen, Sireen; Edais, Tasneem

2016-10-01

Background Medication dispensing errors (MDEs) are frequent in community pharmacy practice. A definition of MDEs and scenarios representing MDE situations in Palestinian community pharmacy practice were not previously approached using formal consensus techniques. Objective This study was conducted to achieve consensus on a definition of MDEs and a wide range of scenarios that should or should not be considered as MDEs in Palestinian community pharmacy practice by a panel of community pharmacists. Setting Community pharmacy practice in Palestine. Method This was a descriptive study using the Delphi technique. A panel of fifty community pharmacists was recruited from different geographical locations of the West Bank of Palestine. A three round Delphi technique was followed to achieve consensus on a proposed definition of MDEs and 83 different scenarios representing potential MDEs using a nine-point scale. Main outcome measure Agreement or disagreement of a panel of community pharmacists on a proposed definition of MDEs and a series of scenarios representing potential MDEs. Results In the first Delphi round, views of key contact community pharmacists on MDEs were explored and situations representing potential MDEs were collected. In the second Delphi round, consensus was achieved to accept the proposed definition and to include 49 (59 %) of the 83 proposed scenarios as MDEs. In the third Delphi round, consensus was achieved to include further 13 (15.7 %) scenarios as MDEs, exclude 9 (10.8 %) scenarios and the rest of 12 (14.5 %) scenarios were considered equivocal based on the opinions of the panelists. Conclusion Consensus on a definition of MDEs and scenarios representing MDE situations in Palestinian community pharmacy practice was achieved using a formal consensus technique. The use of consensual definitions and scenarios representing MDE situations in community pharmacy practice might minimize methodological variations and their significant effects on the number and rate of MDEs reported in different studies.

Reproductive Benefit of Oxidative Damage: An Oxidative Stress “Malevolence”?

PubMed Central

Poljsak, B.; Milisav, I.; Lampe, T.; Ostan, I.

2011-01-01

High levels of reactive oxygen species (ROS) compared to antioxidant defenses are considered to play a major role in diverse chronic age-related diseases and aging. Here we present an attempt to synthesize information about proximate oxidative processes in aging (relevant to free radical or oxidative damage hypotheses of aging) with an evolutionary scenario (credited here to Dawkins hypotheses) involving tradeoffs between the costs and benefits of oxidative stress to reproducing organisms. Oxidative stress may be considered a biological imperfection; therefore, the Dawkins' theory of imperfect adaptation of beings to environment was applied to the role of oxidative stress in processes like famine and infectious diseases and their consequences at the molecular level such as mutations and cell signaling. Arguments are presented that oxidative damage is not necessarily an evolutionary mistake but may be beneficial for reproduction; this may prevail over its harmfulness to health and longevity in evolution. Thus, Dawkins' principle of biological “malevolence” may be an additional biological paradigm for explaining the consequences of oxidative stress. PMID:21969876

Systematic exploration of efficient strategies to manage solid waste in U.S. municipalities: perspectives from the solid waste optimization life-cycle framework (SWOLF).

PubMed

Levis, James W; Barlaz, Morton A; Decarolis, Joseph F; Ranjithan, S Ranji

2014-04-01

Solid waste management (SWM) systems must proactively adapt to changing policy requirements, waste composition, and an evolving energy system to sustainably manage future solid waste. This study represents the first application of an optimizable dynamic life-cycle assessment framework capable of considering these future changes. The framework was used to draw insights by analyzing the SWM system of a hypothetical suburban U.S. city of 100 000 people over 30 years while considering changes to population, waste generation, and energy mix and costs. The SWM system included 3 waste generation sectors, 30 types of waste materials, and 9 processes for waste separation, treatment, and disposal. A business-as-usual scenario (BAU) was compared to three optimization scenarios that (1) minimized cost (Min Cost), (2) maximized diversion (Max Diversion), and (3) minimized greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Min GHG) from the system. The Min Cost scenario saved $7.2 million (12%) and reduced GHG emissions (3%) relative to the BAU scenario. Compared to the Max Diversion scenario, the Min GHG scenario cost approximately 27% less and more than doubled the net reduction in GHG emissions. The results illustrate how the timed-deployment of technologies in response to changes in waste composition and the energy system results in more efficient SWM system performance compared to what is possible from static analyses.

Impact of maximum levels in European legislation on exposure of mycotoxins in dried products: case of aflatoxin B1 and ochratoxin A in nuts and dried fruits.

PubMed

Van de Perre, Evelien; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Lachat, Carl; El Tahan, Fouad; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2015-01-01

In this study the impact of setting European criteria on exposure to aflatoxin B1 via nuts and figs and ochratoxin A via dried fruits is evaluated for the Belgian population, as an example of the European population. Two different scenarios were evaluated. In scenario 1 all collected literature data are considered, assuming that there is no border control nor legal limits in Europe. In the second scenario, contamination levels above the maximum limits are excluded. The results from scenario 1 demonstrated that if no regulation is in place, AFB1 and OTA concentrations reported in the analysed food can have potential health risk to the population. The estimated exposure of OTA for scenario 2 is below the TDI of 5 ng/kg BW⋅day, indicating that OTA concentrations accepted by EU legislation pose a low risk to the Belgian population. For AFB1, the MOE values of scenario 2 are above 10,000 and can be considered to be of low health concern, based on BDML10 for humans, except for figs (MOE = 5782). This means that for all matrices, with exception of figs, the maximum values of AFB1 in the European legislation are sufficient to be of a low health concern for consumers. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Long-term prospects for the environmental profile of advanced sugar cane ethanol.

PubMed

da Silva, Cinthia R U; Franco, Henrique Coutinho Junqueira; Junqueira, Tassia Lopes; van Oers, Lauran; van der Voet, Ester; Seabra, Joaquim E A

2014-10-21

This work assessed the environmental impacts of the production and use of 1 MJ of hydrous ethanol (E100) in Brazil in prospective scenarios (2020-2030), considering the deployment of technologies currently under development and better agricultural practices. The life cycle assessment technique was employed using the CML method for the life cycle impact assessment and the Monte Carlo method for the uncertainty analysis. Abiotic depletion, global warming, human toxicity, ecotoxicity, photochemical oxidation, acidification, and eutrophication were the environmental impacts categories analyzed. Results indicate that the proposed improvements (especially no-til farming-scenarios s2 and s4) would lead to environmental benefits in prospective scenarios compared to the current ethanol production (scenario s0). Combined first and second generation ethanol production (scenarios s3 and s4) would require less agricultural land but would not perform better than the projected first generation ethanol, although the uncertainties are relatively high. The best use of 1 ha of sugar cane was also assessed, considering the displacement of the conventional products by ethanol and electricity. No-til practices combined with the production of first generation ethanol and electricity (scenario s2) would lead to the largest mitigation effects for global warming and abiotic depletion. For the remaining categories, emissions would not be mitigated with the utilization of the sugar cane products. However, this conclusion is sensitive to the displaced electricity sources.

Axions, neutrinos and strings: The formation of structure in an SO(10) universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stecker, F. W.

1984-01-01

In a class of grand unified theories containing SO(10), cosmologically significant axion and neutrino energy densities are obtainable naturally. To obtain large scale structure, both components of dark matter are considered to exist with comparable energy densities. To obtain large scale structure, inflationary and non-inflationary scenarios are considered, as well as scenarios with and without vacuum strings. It is shown that inflation may be compatible with recent observations of the mass density within galaxy clusters and superclusters, especially if strings are present.

Axions, neutrinos and strings - The formation of structure in an SO(10) universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stecker, F. W.

1986-01-01

In a class of grand unified theories containing SO(10), cosmologically significant axion and neutrino energy densities are obtainable naturally. To obtain large scale structure, both components of dark matter are considered to exist with comparable energy densities. To obtain large scale structure, inflationary and non-inflationary scenarios are considered, as well as scenarios with and without vacuum strings. It is shown that inflation may be compatible with recent observations of the mass density within galaxy clusters and superclusters, especially if strings are present.

A spatial modeling framework to evaluate domestic biofuel-induced potential land use changed and emissions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elliot, Joshua; Sharma, Bhavna; Best, Neil; Glotter, Michael; Dunn, Jennifer B.; Foster, Ian; Miguez, Fernando; Mueller, Steffen; Wang, Michael

2014-01-01

We present a novel bottom-up approach to estimate biofuel-induced land-use change (LUC) and resulting CO2 emissions in the U.S. from 2010 to 2022, based on a consistent methodology across four essential components: land availability, land suitability, LUC decision-making, and induced CO2 emissions. Using highresolution geospatial data and modeling, we construct probabilistic assessments of county-, state-, and national-level LUC and emissions for macroeconomic scenarios. We use the Cropland Data Layer and the Protected Areas Database to characterize availability of land for biofuel crop cultivation, and the CERES-Maize and BioCro biophysical crop growth models to estimate the suitability (yield potential) of available lands for biofuel crops. For LUC decisionmaking, we use a county-level stochastic partial-equilibrium modeling framework and consider five scenarios involving annual ethanol production scaling to 15, 22, and 29 BG, respectively, in 2022, with corn providing feedstock for the first 15 BG and the remainder coming from one of two dedicated energy crops. Finally, we derive high-resolution above-ground carbon factors from the National Biomass and Carbon Data set to estimate emissions from each LUC pathway. Based on these inputs, we obtain estimates for average total LUC emissions of 6.1, 2.2, 1.0, 2.2, and 2.4 gCO2e/MJ for Corn-15 Billion gallons (BG), Miscanthus × giganteus (MxG)-7 BG, Switchgrass (SG)-7 BG, MxG-14 BG, and SG-14 BG scenarios, respectively.

Economic and financial viability of small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico: economic scenario 2010-2018.

PubMed

Posadas-Domínguez, R R; Callejas-Juárez, N; Arriaga-Jordán, C M; Martínez-Castañeda, F E

2016-12-01

A simulation Monte Carlo model was used to assess the economic and financial viability of 130 small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico, through a Representative Small-Scale Dairy Farm. Net yields were calculated for a 9-year planning horizon by means of simulated values for the distribution of input and product prices taking 2010 as base year and considering four scenarios which were compared against the scenario of actual production. The other scenarios were (1) total hiring in of needed labour; (2) external purchase of 100 % of inputs and (3) withdrawal of subsidies to production. A stochastic modelling approach was followed to determine the scenario with the highest economic and financial viability. Results show a viable economic and financial situation for the real production scenario, as well as the scenarios for total hiring of labour and of withdrawal of subsidies, but the scenario when 100 % of feed inputs for the herd are bought-in was not viable.

A framework for considering climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : lessons learned from an interagency pilot project on Cape Cod.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-07-01

The Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Pilot Project utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multi-agency transportation- and land use-focused development strategy for Cape Cod, Massachusetts, with the intention of ach...

Tsunami design criteria for coastal infrastructure : a case study for Spencer Creek Bridge, Oregon.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-11-01

The load effects on a coastal bridge due to the impact of a tsunami wave were developed. Three Cascadia Fault : rupture scenarios were considered using the Cornell model and the FVWAVE model to generate the waves for : each scenario. The FVWAVE model...

30 CFR 254.47 - Determining the volume of oil of your worst case discharge scenario.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... associated with the facility. In determining the daily discharge rate, you must consider reservoir characteristics, casing/production tubing sizes, and historical production and reservoir pressure data. Your...) For exploratory or development drilling operations, the size of your worst case discharge scenario is...

Land use change modeling through scenario-based cellular automata Markov: improving spatial forecasting.

PubMed

Jahanishakib, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Poodat, Fatemeh

2018-05-08

Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario. For each scenario, a set of landscape metrics was used to assess the ecological integrity of land use classes in terms of fragmentation and structural connectivity. The approach enabled us to develop spatial scenarios of land use change and detect their differences for choosing the most integrated landscape pattern in terms of landscape metrics. Finally, the comparison between paired forecasted scenarios based on landscape metrics indicates that scenarios 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, and 4-1 have a more suitable integrity. The proposed methodology for developing spatial scenarios helps executive managers to create scenarios with many repetitions and customize spatial patterns in real world applications and policies.

Performance Evaluation of LoRa Considering Scenario Conditions.

PubMed

Sanchez-Iborra, Ramon; Sanchez-Gomez, Jesus; Ballesta-Viñas, Juan; Cano, Maria-Dolores; Skarmeta, Antonio F

2018-03-03

New verticals within the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm such as smart cities, smart farming, or goods monitoring, among many others, are demanding strong requirements to the Radio Access Network (RAN) in terms of coverage, end-node's power consumption, and scalability. The technologies employed so far to provide IoT scenarios with connectivity, e.g., wireless sensor network and cellular technologies, are not able to simultaneously cope with these three requirements. Thus, a novel solution known as Low Power - Wide Area Network (LP-WAN) has emerged as a promising alternative to provide with low-cost and low-power-consumption connectivity to end-nodes spread in a wide area. Concretely, the Long-Range Wide Area Network (LoRaWAN) technology is one of the LP-WAN platforms that is receiving greater attention from both the industry and the academia. For that reason, in this work, a comprehensive performance evaluation of LoRaWAN under different environmental conditions is presented. The results are obtained from three real scenarios, namely, urban, suburban, and rural, considering both dynamic and static conditions, hence a discussion about the most proper LoRaWAN physical-layer configuration for each scenario is provided. Besides, a theoretical coverage study is also conducted by the use of a radio planning tool considering topographic maps and a precise propagation model. From the attained results, it can be concluded that it is necessary to evaluate the propagation conditions of the deployment scenario prior to the system implantation in order to reach a compromise between the robustness of the network and the transmission data-rate.

Performance Evaluation of LoRa Considering Scenario Conditions

PubMed Central

Sanchez-Gomez, Jesus; Ballesta-Viñas, Juan

2018-01-01

New verticals within the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm such as smart cities, smart farming, or goods monitoring, among many others, are demanding strong requirements to the Radio Access Network (RAN) in terms of coverage, end-node’s power consumption, and scalability. The technologies employed so far to provide IoT scenarios with connectivity, e.g., wireless sensor network and cellular technologies, are not able to simultaneously cope with these three requirements. Thus, a novel solution known as Low Power - Wide Area Network (LP-WAN) has emerged as a promising alternative to provide with low-cost and low-power-consumption connectivity to end-nodes spread in a wide area. Concretely, the Long-Range Wide Area Network (LoRaWAN) technology is one of the LP-WAN platforms that is receiving greater attention from both the industry and the academia. For that reason, in this work, a comprehensive performance evaluation of LoRaWAN under different environmental conditions is presented. The results are obtained from three real scenarios, namely, urban, suburban, and rural, considering both dynamic and static conditions, hence a discussion about the most proper LoRaWAN physical-layer configuration for each scenario is provided. Besides, a theoretical coverage study is also conducted by the use of a radio planning tool considering topographic maps and a precise propagation model. From the attained results, it can be concluded that it is necessary to evaluate the propagation conditions of the deployment scenario prior to the system implantation in order to reach a compromise between the robustness of the network and the transmission data-rate. PMID:29510524

Performance issues in management of the Space Station Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Marjory J.

1988-01-01

The onboard segment of the Space Station Information System (SSIS), called the Data Management System (DMS), will consist of a Fiber Distributed Data Interface (FDDI) token-ring network. The performance of the DMS in scenarios involving two kinds of network management is analyzed. In the first scenario, how the transmission of routine management messages impacts performance of the DMS is examined. In the second scenario, techniques for ensuring low latency of real-time control messages in an emergency are examined.

Debris flow run-out simulation and analysis using a dynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melo, Raquel; van Asch, Theo; Zêzere, José L.

2018-02-01

Only two months after a huge forest fire occurred in the upper part of a valley located in central Portugal, several debris flows were triggered by intense rainfall. The event caused infrastructural and economic damage, although no lives were lost. The present research aims to simulate the run-out of two debris flows that occurred during the event as well as to calculate via back-analysis the rheological parameters and the excess rain involved. Thus, a dynamic model was used, which integrates surface runoff, concentrated erosion along the channels, propagation and deposition of flow material. Afterwards, the model was validated using 32 debris flows triggered during the same event that were not considered for calibration. The rheological and entrainment parameters obtained for the most accurate simulation were then used to perform three scenarios of debris flow run-out on the basin scale. The results were confronted with the existing buildings exposed in the study area and the worst-case scenario showed a potential inundation that may affect 345 buildings. In addition, six streams where debris flow occurred in the past and caused material damage and loss of lives were identified.

A Comprehensive Laboratory Animal Facility Pandemic Response Plan

PubMed Central

Roble, Gordon S; Lingenhol, Naomi M; Baker, Bryan; Wilkerson, Amy; Tolwani, Ravi J

2010-01-01

The potential of a severe influenza pandemic necessitates the development of an organized, rational plan for continued laboratory animal facility operation without compromise of the welfare of animals. A comprehensive laboratory animal program pandemic response plan was integrated into a university-wide plan. Preparation involved input from all levels of organizational hierarchy including the IACUC. Many contingencies and operational scenarios were considered based on the severity and duration of the influenza pandemic. Trigger points for systematic action steps were based on the World Health Organization's phase alert criteria. One extreme scenario requires hibernation of research operations and maintenance of reduced numbers of laboratory animal colonies for a period of up to 6 mo. This plan includes active recruitment and cross-training of volunteers for essential personnel positions, protective measures for employee and family health, logistical arrangements for delivery and storage of food and bedding, the removal of waste, and the potential for euthanasia. Strategies such as encouraging and subsidizing cryopreservation of unique strains were undertaken to protect valuable research assets and intellectual property. Elements of this plan were put into practice after escalation of the pandemic alerts due to influenza A (H1N1) in April 2009. PMID:20858365

Policy Model of Sustainable Infrastructure Development (Case Study : Bandarlampung City, Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persada, C.; Sitorus, S. R. P.; Marimin; Djakapermana, R. D.

2018-03-01

Infrastructure development does not only affect the economic aspect, but also social and environmental, those are the main dimensions of sustainable development. Many aspects and actors involved in urban infrastructure development requires a comprehensive and integrated policy towards sustainability. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate an infrastructure development policy that considers various dimensions of sustainable development. The main objective of this research is to formulate policy of sustainable infrastructure development. In this research, urban infrastructure covers transportation, water systems (drinking water, storm water, wastewater), green open spaces and solid waste. This research was conducted in Bandarlampung City. This study use a comprehensive modeling, namely the Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) with Rapid Appraisal of Infrastructure (Rapinfra), it uses of Analytic Network Process (ANP) and it uses system dynamics model. The findings of the MDS analysis showed that the status of Bandarlampung City infrastructure sustainability is less sustainable. The ANP analysis produces 8 main indicators of the most influential in the development of sustainable infrastructure. The system dynamics model offered 4 scenarios of sustainable urban infrastructure policy model. The best scenario was implemented into 3 policies consist of: the integrated infrastructure management, the population control, and the local economy development.

Effectiveness of the cigarette ignition propensity standard in preventing unintentional residential fires in Massachusetts.

PubMed

Alpert, Hillel R; Christiani, David C; Orav, E John; Dockery, Douglas W; Connolly, Gregory N

2014-04-01

We evaluated the Massachusetts Fire Safe Cigarette Law's (FSCL's) effectiveness in preventing residential fires. We examined unintentional residential fires reported to the Massachusetts Fire Incident Reporting System from 2004 to 2010. We analyzed FSCL effect on the likelihood of cigarette- versus noncigarette-caused fires and effect modification by fire scenario factors by using an interrupted time series regression model. We analyzed the effect of FSCL on monthly fire rates with Poisson regression. Cigarettes caused 1629 unintentional residential fires during the study period. The FSCL was associated with a 28% (95% confidence interval = 12%, 41%) reduction in the odds of cigarette- versus noncigarette-caused fires, although not in analyses restricted to casualty fires, with smaller sample size. The largest reductions were among fires in which human factors were involved; that were first ignited on furniture, bedding, or soft goods; that occurred in living areas; or that occurred in the summer or winter. The FSCL appears to have decreased the likelihood of cigarette-caused residential fires, particularly in scenarios for which the ignition propensity standard was developed. Current standards should be adopted, and the need for strengthening should be considered.

Effectiveness of the Cigarette Ignition Propensity Standard in Preventing Unintentional Residential Fires in Massachusetts

PubMed Central

Christiani, David C.; Orav, E. John; Dockery, Douglas W.; Connolly, Gregory N.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We evaluated the Massachusetts Fire Safe Cigarette Law’s (FSCL’s) effectiveness in preventing residential fires. Methods. We examined unintentional residential fires reported to the Massachusetts Fire Incident Reporting System from 2004 to 2010. We analyzed FSCL effect on the likelihood of cigarette- versus noncigarette-caused fires and effect modification by fire scenario factors by using an interrupted time series regression model. We analyzed the effect of FSCL on monthly fire rates with Poisson regression. Results. Cigarettes caused 1629 unintentional residential fires during the study period. The FSCL was associated with a 28% (95% confidence interval = 12%, 41%) reduction in the odds of cigarette- versus noncigarette-caused fires, although not in analyses restricted to casualty fires, with smaller sample size. The largest reductions were among fires in which human factors were involved; that were first ignited on furniture, bedding, or soft goods; that occurred in living areas; or that occurred in the summer or winter. Conclusions. The FSCL appears to have decreased the likelihood of cigarette-caused residential fires, particularly in scenarios for which the ignition propensity standard was developed. Current standards should be adopted, and the need for strengthening should be considered. PMID:24524537

77 FR 22807 - Sunshine Act Meetings

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-17

... it is necessary for the Board to consider items in executive session. MATTERS TO BE CONSIDERED: (1... scenarios report; (5) Board procedures and governance. PORTIONS OPEN TO THE PUBLIC: All agenda items except...

Modulus stabilization in a non-flat warped braneworld scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Indrani; SenGupta, Soumitra

2017-05-01

The stability of the modular field in a warped brane world scenario has been a subject of interest for a long time. Goldberger and Wise (GW) proposed a mechanism to achieve this by invoking a massive scalar field in the bulk space-time neglecting the back-reaction. In this work, we examine the possibility of stabilizing the modulus without bringing about any external scalar field. We show that instead of flat 3-branes as considered in Randall-Sundrum (RS) warped braneworld model, if one considers a more generalized version of warped geometry with de Sitter 3-brane, then the brane vacuum energy automatically leads to a modulus potential with a metastable minimum. Our result further reveals that in this scenario the gauge hierarchy problem can also be resolved for an appropriate choice of the brane's cosmological constant.

Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst-Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joslyn, Susan; Savelli, Sonia; Nadav-Greenberg, Limor

2011-01-01

Many weather forecast providers believe that forecast uncertainty in the form of the worst-case scenario would be useful for general public end users. We tested this suggestion in 4 studies using realistic weather-related decision tasks involving high winds and low temperatures. College undergraduates, given the statistical equivalent of the…

Going "Above and Beyond": Are Those High in Autistic Traits Less Pro-Social?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jameel, Leila; Vyas, Karishma; Bellesi, Giulia; Roberts, Victoria; Channon, Shelley

2014-01-01

Few studies have explored how the cognitive differences associated with autistic spectrum disorder translate into everyday social behaviour. This study investigated pro-social behaviour in students scoring high and low on the autism-spectrum quotient (AQ), using a novel scenario task: "Above and Beyond." Each scenario involved an…

Stationary Crossflow Breakdown due to Mixed Mode Spectra of Secondary Instabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Fei; Choudhari, Meelan M.; Duan, Lian

2016-01-01

Numerical simulations are used to study laminar breakdown characteristics associated with stationary crossflow instability in the boundary-layer flow over a subsonic swept-wing configuration. Previous work involving the linear and nonlinear development of individual, fundamental modes of secondary instability waves is extended by considering the role of more complex, yet controlled, spectra of the secondary instability modes. Direct numerical simulations target a mixed mode transition scenario involving the simultaneous presence of Y and Z modes of secondary instability. For the initial amplitudes investigated in this paper, the Y modes are found to play an insignificant role during the onset of transition, in spite of achieving rather large, O(5%), amplitudes of RMS velocity fluctuation prior to transition. Analysis of the numerical simulations shows that this rather surprising finding can be attributed to the fact that the Y modes are concentrated near the top of the crossflow vortex and exert relatively small influence on the Z modes that reside closer to the surface and can lead to transition via nonlinear spreading that does not involve interactions with the Y mode. Finally, secondary instability calculations reveal that subharmonic modes of secondary instability have substantially lower growth rates than those of the fundamental modes, and hence, are less likely to play an important role during the breakdown process involving complex initial spectra.

Uncertainty in training image-based inversion of hydraulic head data constrained to ERT data: Workflow and case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermans, Thomas; Nguyen, Frédéric; Caers, Jef

2015-07-01

In inverse problems, investigating uncertainty in the posterior distribution of model parameters is as important as matching data. In recent years, most efforts have focused on techniques to sample the posterior distribution with reasonable computational costs. Within a Bayesian context, this posterior depends on the prior distribution. However, most of the studies ignore modeling the prior with realistic geological uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a workflow inspired by a Popper-Bayes philosophy that data should first be used to falsify models, then only be considered for matching. We propose a workflow consisting of three steps: (1) in defining the prior, we interpret multiple alternative geological scenarios from literature (architecture of facies) and site-specific data (proportions of facies). Prior spatial uncertainty is modeled using multiple-point geostatistics, where each scenario is defined using a training image. (2) We validate these prior geological scenarios by simulating electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data on realizations of each scenario and comparing them to field ERT in a lower dimensional space. In this second step, the idea is to probabilistically falsify scenarios with ERT, meaning that scenarios which are incompatible receive an updated probability of zero while compatible scenarios receive a nonzero updated belief. (3) We constrain the hydrogeological model with hydraulic head and ERT using a stochastic search method. The workflow is applied to a synthetic and a field case studies in an alluvial aquifer. This study highlights the importance of considering and estimating prior uncertainty (without data) through a process of probabilistic falsification.

Assessing the impacts of the changes in farming systems on food security and environmental sustainability of a Chinese rural region under different policy scenarios: an agent-based model.

PubMed

Yuan, Chengcheng; Liu, Liming; Qi, Xiaoxing; Fu, Yonghu; Ye, Jinwei

2017-07-01

Since China has undergone a series of economic reforms and implemented opening up policies, its farming systems have significantly changed and have dramatically influenced the society, economy, and environment of China. To assess the comprehensive impacts of these changes on food security and environmental sustainability, and establish effective and environment-friendly subsidy policies, this research constructed an agent-based model (ABM). Daligang Town, which is located in the two-season rice region of Southern China, was selected as the case study site. Four different policy scenarios, i.e., "sharply increasing" (SI), "no-increase" (NI), "adjusted-method" (AM), and "trend" (TD) scenarios were investigated from 2015 to 2029. The validation result shows that the relative prediction errors between the simulated and actual values annually ranged from -20 to 20%, indicating the reliability of the proposed model. The scenario analysis revealed that the four scenarios generated different variations in cropping systems, rice yield, and fertilizer and pesticide inputs when the purchase price of rice and the non-agricultural income were assumed to increase annually by 0.1 RMB per kg and 10% per person, respectively. Among the four different policy scenarios in Daligang, the TD scenario was considered the best, because it had a relatively high rice yield, fairly minimal use of fertilizers and pesticides, and a lower level of subsidy. Despite its limitations, ABM could be considered a useful tool in analyzing, exploring, and discussing the comprehensive effects of the changes in farming system on food security and environmental sustainability.

Implications of a class of grand unified theories for large scale structure in the universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shafi, Q.; Stecker, F. W.

1983-01-01

A class of grand unified theories in which cosmologicaly significant axion and neutrino energy densities arise naturally is discussed. To obtain large scale structure three scenarios are considered: (1) an inflationary scenario; (2) inflation followed by string production; and (3) a non-inflationary scenario with density fluctuations caused solely by strings. Inflation may be compatible with the recent observational indications that mega 1 on the scale of superclusters, particularly if strings are present.

Sedimentation Impacts Modeling for the Lower Elwha River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beggs, M.; Kosaka, M.; Sigel, A.; Vandermause, R.; Lauer, J. W.

2012-12-01

The removal of Glines Canyon and Elwha Dams from the Elwha River, northwest Washington, is intended to restore natural geomorphic and ecological processes to the Elwha River basin. Prior to the start of dam removal, over 16 million cubic meters of sediment had accumulated in the reservoirs above the two dams. As dam removal progresses, a portion of this sediment will erode and then be deposited on the downstream river bed and floodplain. To address uncertainty in downstream response to the project, the United States Bureau of Reclamation is implementing an adaptive management plan that relies upon continuous monitoring of water levels at a set of stream gages along the river. To interpret the monitoring data and allow for rapid assessment of the rate of downstream sedimentation, we developed rating curves at several locations along the lower Elwha River. The curves consider a range of possible sedimentation scenarios, each involving different sedimentation levels and/or locations. One scenario considers sedimentation primarily in the river channel, another considers sedimentation primarily on the floodplain, and a third considers both possibilities in tandem. We modeled these scenarios using two separate approaches. First, we modified the cross sections in an existing U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HEC-RAS model to represent possible changes associated with geomorphic adjustment to the dam removals. In-channel sedimentation was assumed to occur as a constant fraction of the bankfull depth at any given section, thereby focusing geomorphic change in relatively deep pool areas. In the HEC-RAS model, off-channel sedimentation was assumed uniform. The HEC-RAS model showed that both low-flow and flood hydraulics are much more sensitive to plausible levels of in-channel sedimentation than to plausible levels of overbank sedimentation. The wide floodplain, complex secondary channels, and geomorphic evolution since the original cross sections were surveyed raise some questions regarding the validity of our 1-D HEC-RAS results and motivated our second approach, which involved developing an independent 2-D hydraulic model using the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation SRH-2d program. This model had the added benefit of being able to utilize more recently surveyed bathymetric and topographic data. The 2-D model was used to improve the representation of spatial variability of likely floodplain sedimentation. For this, we used a preliminary run of the program to characterize the water surface elevation for a typical flood event. We then used the modeled water surface as an input for an eight direction pour point determination of flow direction in ArcGIS. This allowed us to approximate the flow distance from the main channel along streamlines crossing the floodplain. Using observed levee morphology, we developed an ad-hoc exponential function for overbank sedimentation as a function of flow distance from the channel. This tended to focus deposition on natural levees at the upstream side of point bars or meander necks. Despite the more narrowly focused zone of floodplain sedimentation, however, the results were consistent with the 1-D result that in-channel sedimentation is like to have a greater relative impact on system-wide hydraulics than does overbank sedimentation.

Preliminary phenomena identification and ranking tables for simplified boiling water reactor Loss-of-Coolant Accident scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kroeger, P.G.; Rohatgi, U.S.; Jo, J.H.

1998-04-01

For three potential Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenarios in the General Electric Simplified Boiling Water Reactors (SBWR) a set of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRT) is presented. The selected LOCA scenarios are typical for the class of small and large breaks generally considered in Safety Analysis Reports. The method used to develop the PIRTs is described. Following is a discussion of the transient scenarios, the PIRTs are presented and discussed in detailed and in summarized form. A procedure for future validation of the PIRTs, to enhance their value, is outlined. 26 refs., 25 figs., 44 tabs.

US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John

This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for releasemore » in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes), changes in climate and related environmental conditions (e.g., sea level), and evolution of societal capability to respond to climate change. This wide range of scenarios is needed because the implications of climate change for the environment and society depend not only on changes in climate themselves, but also on human responses. This degree of breadth introduces and number of challenges for communication and research.« less

The use of cognitive continuum theory and patient scenarios to explore nurse prescribers' pharmacological knowledge and decision-making.

PubMed

Offredy, Maxine; Kendall, Sally; Goodman, Claire

2008-06-01

Nurses have been involved in prescribing in England since 1996, and to date over 41,000 nurses are registered with the Nursing and Midwifery Council as prescribers. The majority of evaluative research on nurse prescribing is descriptive and relies on self-report and assessment of patient satisfaction. To explore and test nurse prescribers' pharmacological knowledge and decision-making. An exploratory approach to test the usefulness of patient scenarios in addressing the reasons why nurses decide whether or not to prescribe was utilised. Semi-structured interviews with nurse prescribers using patient scenarios were used as proxy methods of assessment of how nurses made their prescribing decisions. Two primary care trusts in the southeast of England were the settings for this study. Purposive sampling to ensure there was a mixed group of prescribers was used to enable detailed exploration of the research objectives and to obtain in-depth understanding of the complex activities involved in nurse prescribing. Interviews and case scenarios. The use of cognitive continuum theory guided the analysis. The majority of participants were unable to identify the issues involved in all the scenarios; they also failed to provide an acceptable solution to the problem, suggesting that they would refer the patient to the general practitioner. A similar number described themselves as 'very confident' while seven participants felt that they were 'not confident' in dealing with medication issues, four of whom were practising prescribing. The effects of social and institutional factors are important in the decision-making process. The lack of appropriate pharmacological knowledge coupled with lack of confidence in prescribing was demonstrated. The scenarios used in this study indicate that nurses are perhaps knowledgeable in their small area of practise but flounder outside this. Further research could be conducted with a larger sample and with more scenarios to explore the decision-making and the pharmacological knowledge base of nurse prescribers, particularly in the light of government policy to extend prescribing rights to non-medical prescribers, including pharmacists.

Publicly Open Virtualized Gaming Environment For Simulation of All Aspects Related to '100 Year Starship Study'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obousy, R. K.

2012-09-01

Sending a mission to distant stars will require our civilization to develop new technologies and change the way we live. The complexity of the task is enormous [1] thus, the thought is to involve people from around the globe through the ``citizen scientist'' paradigm. The suggestion is a ``Gaming Virtual Reality Network'' (GVRN) to simulate sociological and technological aspects involved in this project. Currently there is work being done [2] in developing a technology which will construct computer games within GVRN. This technology will provide quick and easy ways for individuals to develop game scenarios related to various aspects of the ``100YSS'' project. People will be involved in solving certain tasks just by play games. Players will be able to modify conditions, add new technologies, geological conditions, social movements and assemble new strategies just by writing scenarios. The system will interface with textual and video information, extract scenarios written in millions of texts and use it to assemble new games. Thus, players will be able to simulate enormous amounts of possibilities. Information technologies will be involved which will require us to start building the system in a way that any modules can be easily replaced. Thus, GVRN should be modular and open to the community.

A Chatbot for a Dialogue-Based Second Language Learning System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Jin-Xia; Lee, Kyung-Soon; Kwon, Oh-Woog; Kim, Young-Kil

2017-01-01

This paper presents a chatbot for a Dialogue-Based Computer-Assisted second Language Learning (DB-CALL) system. A DB-CALL system normally leads dialogues by asking questions according to given scenarios. User utterances outside the scenarios are normally considered as semantically improper and simply rejected. In this paper, we assume that raising…

Lessons From the Future: ICT Scenarios and the Education of Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Peter

2005-01-01

This paper reviews significant events of the last 25 years in schools and teacher education in England and looks ahead to the next 25 years. Various scenarios for the future are examined and the potential is considered for new forms of teachers' initial education and continuing professional development using information and communications…

Radioactive waste management treatments: A selection for the Italian scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.; Sardini, M.

2012-07-01

The increased attention for radioactive waste management is one of the most peculiar aspects of the nuclear sector considering both reactors and not power sources. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-art of treatments for radioactive waste management all over the world in order to derive guidelines for the radioactive waste management in the Italian scenario. Starting with an overview on the international situation, it analyses the different sources, amounts, treatments, social and economic impacts looking at countries with different industrial backgrounds, energetic policies, geography and population. It lists all these treatments and selects the most reasonablemore » according to technical, economic and social criteria. In particular, a double scenario is discussed (to be considered in case of few quantities of nuclear waste): the use of regional, centralized, off site processing facilities, which accept waste from many nuclear plants, and the use of mobile systems, which can be transported among multiple nuclear sites for processing campaigns. At the end the treatments suitable for the Italian scenario are presented providing simplified work-flows and guidelines. (authors)« less

Deforestation and Carbon Loss in Southwest Amazonia: Impact of Brazil's Revised Forest Code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roriz, Pedro Augusto Costa; Yanai, Aurora Miho; Fearnside, Philip Martin

2017-09-01

In 2012 Brazil's National Congress altered the country's Forest Code, decreasing various environmental protections in the set of regulations governing forests. This suggests consequences in increased deforestation and emissions of greenhouse gases and in decreased protection of fragile ecosystems. To ascertain the effects, a simulation was run to the year 2025 for the municipality (county) of Boca do Acre, Amazonas state, Brazil. A baseline scenario considered historical behavior (which did not respect the Forest Code), while two scenarios considered full compliance with the old Forest Code (Law 4771/1965) and the current Code (Law 12,651/2012) regarding the protection of "areas of permanent preservation" (APPs) along the edges of watercourses. The models were parameterized from satellite imagery and simulated using Dinamica-EGO software. Deforestation actors and processes in the municipality were observed in loco in 2012. Carbon emissions and loss of forest by 2025 were computed in the three simulation scenarios. There was a 10% difference in the loss of carbon stock and of forest between the scenarios with the two versions of the Forest Code. The baseline scenario showed the highest loss of carbon stocks and the highest increase in annual emissions. The greatest damage was caused by not protecting wetlands and riparian zones.

Deforestation and Carbon Loss in Southwest Amazonia: Impact of Brazil's Revised Forest Code.

PubMed

Roriz, Pedro Augusto Costa; Yanai, Aurora Miho; Fearnside, Philip Martin

2017-09-01

In 2012 Brazil's National Congress altered the country's Forest Code, decreasing various environmental protections in the set of regulations governing forests. This suggests consequences in increased deforestation and emissions of greenhouse gases and in decreased protection of fragile ecosystems. To ascertain the effects, a simulation was run to the year 2025 for the municipality (county) of Boca do Acre, Amazonas state, Brazil. A baseline scenario considered historical behavior (which did not respect the Forest Code), while two scenarios considered full compliance with the old Forest Code (Law 4771/1965) and the current Code (Law 12,651/2012) regarding the protection of "areas of permanent preservation" (APPs) along the edges of watercourses. The models were parameterized from satellite imagery and simulated using Dinamica-EGO software. Deforestation actors and processes in the municipality were observed in loco in 2012. Carbon emissions and loss of forest by 2025 were computed in the three simulation scenarios. There was a 10% difference in the loss of carbon stock and of forest between the scenarios with the two versions of the Forest Code. The baseline scenario showed the highest loss of carbon stocks and the highest increase in annual emissions. The greatest damage was caused by not protecting wetlands and riparian zones.

LCA of an ice cream cup of polyethylene coated paper: how does the choice of the end-of-life affect the results?

PubMed

Buccino, Carla; Ferrara, Carmen; Malvano, Carmela; De Feo, Giovanni

2017-11-07

This study presents an evaluation of the environmental performance of an ice cream cup made of polyethylene (PE)/paper laminate using a life cycle assessment approach 'from cradle to grave'. Two opposite alternative disposal scenarios, as well as their intermediate combinations, were considered: 100% incineration and 100% landfilling. The environmental impacts were calculated using the EPD 2013 evaluation method since the study was developed in an Environmental Product Declaration perspective as well as the method ReCiPe 2008 H at the endpoint level. PE/paper laminate production was the most impactful process since it provided the highest contribution to total impacts in four of six impact categories considered. Ice cream cup production was the second impactful process. The 100% incineration scenario provided negligible contribution to life cycle total impact for all impact categories; while considering the landfilling scenario, the percentage contributions to the total impact provided by the end-of-life phase increased considerably, until to be comparable to the contributions provided by the production processes of the PE/paper laminate and the ice cream cup. The obtained results highlighted that different disposal scenarios can affect significantly the conclusions of a study. At the endpoint level, incineration was more environmentally sound than landfilling for all the ReCiPe damage categories.

Systematic Evaluation of Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Food Waste Management Strategies in the United States.

PubMed

Hodge, Keith L; Levis, James W; DeCarolis, Joseph F; Barlaz, Morton A

2016-08-16

New regulations and targets limiting the disposal of food waste have been recently enacted in numerous jurisdictions. This analysis evaluated selected environmental implications of food waste management policies using life-cycle assessment. Scenarios were developed to evaluate management alternatives applicable to the waste discarded at facilities where food waste is a large component of the waste (e.g., restaurants, grocery stores, and food processors). Options considered include anaerobic digestion (AD), aerobic composting, waste-to-energy combustion (WTE), and landfilling, and multiple performance levels were considered for each option. The global warming impact ranged from approximately -350 to -45 kg CO2e Mg(-1) of waste for scenarios using AD, -190 to 62 kg CO2e Mg(-1) for those using composting, -350 to -28 kg CO2e Mg(-1) when all waste was managed by WTE, and -260 to 260 kg CO2e Mg(-1) when all waste was landfilled. Landfill diversion was found to reduce emissions, and diverting food waste from WTE generally increased emissions. The analysis further found that when a 20 year GWP was used instead of a 100 year GWP, every scenario including WTE was preferable to every scenario including landfill. Jurisdictions seeking to enact food waste disposal regulations should consider regional factors and material properties before duplicating existing statutes.

Developing a stochastic conflict resolution model for urban runoff quality management: Application of info-gap and bargaining theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghodsi, Seyed Hamed; Kerachian, Reza; Estalaki, Siamak Malakpour; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Zahmatkesh, Zahra

2016-02-01

In this paper, two deterministic and stochastic multilateral, multi-issue, non-cooperative bargaining methodologies are proposed for urban runoff quality management. In the proposed methodologies, a calibrated Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to simulate stormwater runoff quantity and quality for different urban stormwater runoff management scenarios, which have been defined considering several Low Impact Development (LID) techniques. In the deterministic methodology, the best management scenario, representing location and area of LID controls, is identified using the bargaining model. In the stochastic methodology, uncertainties of some key parameters of SWMM are analyzed using the info-gap theory. For each water quality management scenario, robustness and opportuneness criteria are determined based on utility functions of different stakeholders. Then, to find the best solution, the bargaining model is performed considering a combination of robustness and opportuneness criteria for each scenario based on utility function of each stakeholder. The results of applying the proposed methodology in the Velenjak urban watershed located in the northeastern part of Tehran, the capital city of Iran, illustrate its practical utility for conflict resolution in urban water quantity and quality management. It is shown that the solution obtained using the deterministic model cannot outperform the result of the stochastic model considering the robustness and opportuneness criteria. Therefore, it can be concluded that the stochastic model, which incorporates the main uncertainties, could provide more reliable results.

An Algorithm for Integrated Subsystem Embodiment and System Synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Kemper

1997-01-01

Consider the statement,'A system has two coupled subsystems, one of which dominates the design process. Each subsystem consists of discrete and continuous variables, and is solved using sequential analysis and solution.' To address this type of statement in the design of complex systems, three steps are required, namely, the embodiment of the statement in terms of entities on a computer, the mathematical formulation of subsystem models, and the resulting solution and system synthesis. In complex system decomposition, the subsystems are not isolated, self-supporting entities. Information such as constraints, goals, and design variables may be shared between entities. But many times in engineering problems, full communication and cooperation does not exist, information is incomplete, or one subsystem may dominate the design. Additionally, these engineering problems give rise to mathematical models involving nonlinear functions of both discrete and continuous design variables. In this dissertation an algorithm is developed to handle these types of scenarios for the domain-independent integration of subsystem embodiment, coordination, and system synthesis using constructs from Decision-Based Design, Game Theory, and Multidisciplinary Design Optimization. Implementation of the concept in this dissertation involves testing of the hypotheses using example problems and a motivating case study involving the design of a subsonic passenger aircraft.

Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From thesemore » five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.« less

Classification and treatment of follicular thyroid neoplasms are discordant between and within medical specialties.

PubMed

Perrier, N D; Ituarte, P H; Treseler, P; D'Avanzo, A; Siperstein, A; Duh, Q Y; Clark, O H

1999-12-01

The histologic criteria to classify follicular thyroid neoplasms are controversial. Criteria used for diagnosis and treatment varies both within and between specialty groups. This discordance makes it difficult to compare disease and management practice. This is especially problematic in issues concerning reoperations and survival. To determine the degree of disparity, we surveyed 3 groups of specialists. A questionnaire describing 10 histologic scenarios was sent to an equal number of thyroidologists, endocrine surgeons, and endocrine pathologists. Individuals were randomly selected from rosters of 3 corresponding societies. Each item asked for a rating of a diagnosis and treatment. Questionnaires were distributed and received by facsimile, and responses were kept confidential. The response rate was 60%. Responses were analyzed by nonparametric statistical tests. Two scenarios had significant disagreement among specialties in both diagnosis and treatment: one scenario involved the assessment of neoplasms with minimal capsular invasion; the other scenario involved Hürthle cell features. In both scenarios pathologists tended to be more conservative in assigning the term carcinoma and recommending total thyroidectomy. Significant disagreement within specialty groups was also noted. Two other scenarios dealt with the distinction between minimally and widely invasive carcinoma; significantly, pathologists viewed tumors as less invasive. This study indicates that much disparity exists among specialists in pathology, endocrinology, and surgery and among experts in each of these disciplines. It highlights that there is no uniform classification. If multicenter trials to evaluate treatment options are to occur, a universal classification must be accepted.

Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

2011-01-01

The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Comparing car drivers' and motorcyclists' opinions about junction crashes.

PubMed

Robbins, Chloe J; Allen, Harriet A; Chapman, Peter

2018-08-01

Motorcyclists are involved in a disproportionate number of crashes given the distance they travel, with a high proportion of these crashes occurring at junctions. Despite car drivers being solely responsible for many road crashes involving a motorcycle, previous research has mostly focussed on understanding motorcyclists' attitudes towards their own safety. We compared car drivers' (n = 102) and motorcyclists' (n = 579) opinions about junction crashes using a web-based questionnaire. Motorcyclists and car drivers were recruited in similar ways so that responses could be directly compared, accessing respondents through driver/rider forums and on social media. Car drivers' and motorcyclists' opinions were compared in relation to who they believe to be blameworthy in situations which varied in specificity, ranging from what road user they believe is most likely to cause a motorcyclist to have a road crash, to what road user is at fault in four specific scenarios involving a car and motorcycle at a junction. Two of these scenarios represented typical 'Right of way' (ROW) crashes with a motorcycle approaching from the left and right, and two scenarios involved a motorcycle overtaking another vehicle at the junction, known as 'Motorcycle Manoeuvrability Accidents' (MMA). Qualitative responses were analysed using LIWC software to detect objective differences in car drivers' and motorcyclists' language. Car drivers' and motorcyclists' opinions about the blameworthiness of accidents changed depending on how specific the situation was that was being presented. When respondents were asked about the cause of motorcycle crashes in a general abstract sense, car drivers' and motorcyclists' responses significantly differed, with motorcyclists more likely to blame car drivers, demonstrating an in-group bias. However, this in-group favouritism was reduced when asked about specific scenarios, especially in MMA situations which involve motorcyclists manoeuvring their motorcycles around cars at a junction. In the four specific scenarios, car drivers were more likely to blame the car driver, and motorcyclists were more likely to blame the motorcyclist. In the typical ROW scenarios, the responses given by both road users, as analysed by the LIWC, show that the law is taken into account, as well as a large emphasis on the lack of observation given around junctions, especially from car drivers. It is concluded that the perception of blameworthiness in crashes is very much dependent on the details of the crash, with a more specific situation eliciting a fairer evaluation by both car drivers and motorcyclists. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A dynamic approach for the impact of a toxic gas dispersion hazard considering human behaviour and dispersion modelling.

PubMed

Lovreglio, Ruggiero; Ronchi, Enrico; Maragkos, Georgios; Beji, Tarek; Merci, Bart

2016-11-15

The release of toxic gases due to natural/industrial accidents or terrorist attacks in populated areas can have tragic consequences. To prevent and evaluate the effects of these disasters different approaches and modelling tools have been introduced in the literature. These instruments are valuable tools for risk managers doing risk assessment of threatened areas. Despite the significant improvements in hazard assessment in case of toxic gas dispersion, these analyses do not generally include the impact of human behaviour and people movement during emergencies. This work aims at providing an approach which considers both modelling of gas dispersion and evacuation movement in order to improve the accuracy of risk assessment for disasters involving toxic gases. The approach is applied to a hypothetical scenario including a ship releasing Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) on a crowd attending a music festival. The difference between the results obtained with existing static methods (people do not move) and a dynamic approach (people move away from the danger) which considers people movement with different degrees of sophistication (either a simple linear path or more complex behavioural modelling) is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Research on response spectrum of dam based on scenario earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaoliang; Zhang, Yushan

2017-10-01

Taking a large hydropower station as an example, the response spectrum based on scenario earthquake is determined. Firstly, the potential source of greatest contribution to the site is determined on the basis of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Secondly, the magnitude and epicentral distance of the scenario earthquake are calculated according to the main faults and historical earthquake of the potential seismic source zone. Finally, the response spectrum of scenario earthquake is calculated using the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) relations. The response spectrum based on scenario earthquake method is less than the probability-consistent response spectrum obtained by PSHA method. The empirical analysis shows that the response spectrum of scenario earthquake considers the probability level and the structural factors, and combines the advantages of the deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methods. It is easy for people to accept and provide basis for seismic engineering of hydraulic engineering.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xing, Y; Macq, B; Bondar, L

Purpose: To quantify the accuracy in predicting the Bragg peak position using simulated in-room measurements of prompt gamma (PG) emissions for realistic treatment error scenarios that combine several sources of errors. Methods: Prompt gamma measurements by a knife-edge slit camera were simulated using an experimentally validated analytical simulation tool. Simulations were performed, for 143 treatment error scenarios, on an anthropomorphic phantom and a pencil beam scanning plan for nasal cavity. Three types of errors were considered: translation along each axis, rotation around each axis, and CT-calibration errors with magnitude ranging respectively, between −3 and 3 mm, −5 and 5 degrees,more » and between −5 and +5%. We investigated the correlation between the Bragg peak (BP) shift and the horizontal shift of PG profiles. The shifts were calculated between the planned (reference) position and the position by the error scenario. The prediction error for one spot was calculated as the absolute difference between the PG profile shift and the BP shift. Results: The PG shift was significantly and strongly correlated with the BP shift for 92% of the cases (p<0.0001, Pearson correlation coefficient R>0.8). Moderate but significant correlations were obtained for all cases that considered only CT-calibration errors and for 1 case that combined translation and CT-errors (p<0.0001, R ranged between 0.61 and 0.8). The average prediction errors for the simulated scenarios ranged between 0.08±0.07 and 1.67±1.3 mm (grand mean 0.66±0.76 mm). The prediction error was moderately correlated with the value of the BP shift (p=0, R=0.64). For the simulated scenarios the average BP shift ranged between −8±6.5 mm and 3±1.1 mm. Scenarios that considered combinations of the largest treatment errors were associated with large BP shifts. Conclusion: Simulations of in-room measurements demonstrate that prompt gamma profiles provide reliable estimation of the Bragg peak position for complex error scenarios. Yafei Xing and Luiza Bondar are funded by BEWARE grants from the Walloon Region. The work presents simulations results for a prompt gamma camera prototype developed by IBA.« less

TMS for Instantiating a Knowledge Base With Incomplete Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, Mark

2007-01-01

A computer program that belongs to the class known among software experts as output truth-maintenance-systems (output TMSs) has been devised as one of a number of software tools for reducing the size of the knowledge base that must be searched during execution of artificial- intelligence software of the rule-based inference-engine type in a case in which data are missing. This program determines whether the consequences of activation of two or more rules can be combined without causing a logical inconsistency. For example, in a case involving hypothetical scenarios that could lead to turning a given device on or off, the program determines whether a scenario involving a given combination of rules could lead to turning the device both on and off at the same time, in which case that combination of rules would not be included in the scenario.

Power plant allocation in East Kalimantan considering total cost and emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muslimin; Utomo, D. S.

2018-04-01

The fulfillment of electricity need in East Kalimantan is the responsibility of State Electricity Company/Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN). But PLN faces constraints in the lack of generating capacity it has. So the allocation of power loads in East Kalimantan has its own challenges. Additional power supplies from other parties are required. In this study, there are four scenarios tested to meet the electricity needs in East Kalimantan with the goal of minimizing costs and emissions. The first scenario is only by using PLN power plant. The second scenario is by combining PLN + Independent Power Producer (IPP) power plants. The third scenario is by using PLN + Rented power plants. The fourth scenario is by using PLN + Excess capacity generation. Numerical experiment using nonlinear programming is conducted with the help of the solver. The result shows that in the peak load condition, the best combination is scenario 2 (PLN + IPP). While at the lowest load condition, the cheapest scenario is PLN + IPP while the lowest emission is PLN + Rent.

A system dynamics model to evaluate effects of source separation of municipal solid waste management: A case of Bangkok, Thailand.

PubMed

Sukholthaman, Pitchayanin; Sharp, Alice

2016-06-01

Municipal solid waste has been considered as one of the most immediate and serious problems confronting urban government in most developing and transitional economies. Providing solid waste performance highly depends on the effectiveness of waste collection and transportation process. Generally, this process involves a large amount of expenditures and has very complex and dynamic operational problems. Source separation has a major impact on effectiveness of waste management system as it causes significant changes in quantity and quality of waste reaching final disposal. To evaluate the impact of effective source separation on waste collection and transportation, this study adopts a decision support tool to comprehend cause-and-effect interactions of different variables in waste management system. A system dynamics model that envisages the relationships of source separation and effectiveness of waste management in Bangkok, Thailand is presented. Influential factors that affect waste separation attitudes are addressed; and the result of change in perception on waste separation is explained. The impacts of different separation rates on effectiveness of provided collection service are compared in six scenarios. 'Scenario 5' gives the most promising opportunities as 40% of residents are willing to conduct organic and recyclable waste separation. The results show that better service of waste collection and transportation, less monthly expense, extended landfill life, and satisfactory efficiency of the provided service at 60.48% will be achieved at the end of the simulation period. Implications of how to get public involved and conducted source separation are proposed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contributions of knowledge products to health policy: a case study on the Public Health Status and Forecasts Report 2010

PubMed Central

Kok, Maarten O.; Janssen, Susan W.J.; Schuit, Albertine J.; van Oers, Hans A.M.

2016-01-01

Background: The Dutch Public Health Status and Forecasts report (PHSF Report) integrates research data and identifies future trends affecting public health in the Netherlands. To investigate how PHSF contributions to health policy can be enhanced, we analysed the development process whereby the PHSF Report for 2010 was produced (PHSF-2010). Method: To collect data, a case study approach was used along the lines of Contribution Mapping including analysis of documents from the PHSF-2010 process and interviews with actors involved. All interviews were recorded and transcribed ad verbatim and coded using an inductive code list. Results: The PHSF-2010 process included activities aimed at alignment between researchers and policy-makers, such as informal meetings. However, we identified three issues that are easily overlooked in knowledge development, but provide suggestions for enhancing contributions: awareness of divergent; continuously changing actor scenarios; vertical alignment within organizations involved and careful timing of draft products to create early adopters. Conclusion: To enhance the contributions made by an established public health report, such as the PHSF Report, it is insufficient to raise the awareness of potential users. The knowledge product must be geared to policy-makers’ needs and must be introduced into the scenarios of actors who may be less familiar. The demand for knowledge product adaptations has to be considered. This requires continuous alignment efforts in all directions: horizontal and vertical, external and internal. The findings of this study may be useful to researchers who aim to enhance the contributions of their knowledge products to health policy. PMID:27452890

From Usability Testing to Clinical Simulations: Bringing Context into the Design and Evaluation of Usable and Safe Health Information Technologies. Contribution of the IMIA Human Factors Engineering for Healthcare Informatics Working Group.

PubMed

Kushniruk, A; Nohr, C; Jensen, S; Borycki, E M

2013-01-01

The objective of this paper is to explore human factors approaches to understanding the use of health information technology (HIT) by extending usability engineering approaches to include analysis of the impact of clinical context through use of clinical simulations. Methods discussed are considered on a continuum from traditional laboratory-based usability testing to clinical simulations. Clinical simulations can be conducted in a simulation laboratory and they can also be conducted in real-world settings. The clinical simulation approach attempts to bring the dimension of clinical context into stronger focus. This involves testing of systems with representative users doing representative tasks, in representative settings/environments. Application of methods where realistic clinical scenarios are used to drive the study of users interacting with systems under realistic conditions and settings can lead to identification of problems and issues with systems that may not be detected using traditional usability engineering methods. In conducting such studies, careful consideration is needed in creating ecologically valid test scenarios. The evidence obtained from such evaluation can be used to improve both the usability and safety of HIT. In addition, recent work has shown that clinical simulations, in particular those conducted in-situ, can lead to considerable benefits when compared to the costs of running such studies. In order to bring context of use into the testing of HIT, clinical simulation, involving observing representative users carrying out tasks in representative settings, holds considerable promise.

Evaluating taboo trade-offs in ecosystems services and human well-being.

PubMed

Daw, Tim M; Coulthard, Sarah; Cheung, William W L; Brown, Katrina; Abunge, Caroline; Galafassi, Diego; Peterson, Garry D; McClanahan, Tim R; Omukoto, Johnstone O; Munyi, Lydiah

2015-06-02

Managing ecosystems for multiple ecosystem services and balancing the well-being of diverse stakeholders involves different kinds of trade-offs. Often trade-offs involve noneconomic and difficult-to-evaluate values, such as cultural identity, employment, the well-being of poor people, or particular species or ecosystem structures. Although trade-offs need to be considered for successful environmental management, they are often overlooked in favor of win-wins. Management and policy decisions demand approaches that can explicitly acknowledge and evaluate diverse trade-offs. We identified a diversity of apparent trade-offs in a small-scale tropical fishery when ecological simulations were integrated with participatory assessments of social-ecological system structure and stakeholders' well-being. Despite an apparent win-win between conservation and profitability at the aggregate scale, food production, employment, and well-being of marginalized stakeholders were differentially influenced by management decisions leading to trade-offs. Some of these trade-offs were suggested to be "taboo" trade-offs between morally incommensurable values, such as between profits and the well-being of marginalized women. These were not previously recognized as management issues. Stakeholders explored and deliberated over trade-offs supported by an interactive "toy model" representing key system trade-offs, alongside qualitative narrative scenarios of the future. The concept of taboo trade-offs suggests that psychological bias and social sensitivity may exclude key issues from decision making, which can result in policies that are difficult to implement. Our participatory modeling and scenarios approach has the potential to increase awareness of such trade-offs, promote discussion of what is acceptable, and potentially identify and reduce obstacles to management compliance.

Confocal Raman imaging and chemometrics applied to solve forensic document examination involving crossed lines and obliteration cases by a depth profiling study.

PubMed

Borba, Flávia de Souza Lins; Jawhari, Tariq; Saldanha Honorato, Ricardo; de Juan, Anna

2017-03-27

This article describes a non-destructive analytical method developed to solve forensic document examination problems involving crossed lines and obliteration. Different strategies combining confocal Raman imaging and multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares (MCR-ALS) are presented. Multilayer images were acquired at subsequent depth layers into the samples. It is the first time that MCR-ALS is applied to multilayer images for forensic purposes. In this context, this method provides a single set of pure spectral ink signatures and related distribution maps for all layers examined from the sole information in the raw measurement. Four cases were investigated, namely, two concerning crossed lines with different degrees of ink similarity and two related to obliteration, where previous or no knowledge about the identity of the obliterated ink was available. In the crossing line scenario, MCR-ALS analysis revealed the ink nature and the chronological order in which strokes were drawn. For obliteration cases, results making active use of information about the identity of the obliterated ink in the chemometric analysis were of similar quality as those where the identity of the obliterated ink was unknown. In all obliteration scenarios, the identity of inks and the obliterated text were satisfactorily recovered. The analytical methodology proposed is of general use for analytical forensic document examination problems, and considers different degrees of complexity and prior available information. Besides, the strategies of data analysis proposed can be applicable to any other kind of problem in which multilayer Raman images from multicomponent systems have to be interpreted.

A social choice-based methodology for treated wastewater reuse in urban and suburban areas.

PubMed

Mahjouri, Najmeh; Pourmand, Ehsan

2017-07-01

Reusing treated wastewater for supplying water demands such as landscape and agricultural irrigation in urban and suburban areas has become a major water supply approach especially in regions struggling with water shortage. Due to limited available treated wastewater to satisfy all water demands, conflicts may arise in allocating treated wastewater to water users. Since there is usually more than one decision maker and more than one criterion to measure the impact of each water allocation scenario, effective tools are needed to combine individual preferences to reach a collective decision. In this paper, a new social choice (SC) method, which can consider some indifference thresholds for decision makers, is proposed for evaluating and ranking treated wastewater and urban runoff allocation scenarios to water users in urban and suburban areas. Some SC methods, namely plurality voting, Borda count, pairwise comparisons, Hare system, dictatorship, and approval voting, are applied for comparing and evaluating the results. Different scenarios are proposed for allocating treated wastewater and urban runoff to landscape irrigation, agricultural lands as well as artificial recharge of aquifer in the Tehran metropolitan Area, Iran. The main stakeholders rank the proposed scenarios based on their utilities using two different approaches. The proposed method suggests ranking of the scenarios based on the stakeholders' utilities and considering the scores they assigned to each scenario. Comparing the results of the proposed method with those of six different SC methods shows that the obtained ranks are mostly in compliance with the social welfare.

Potential future scenarios for Australia's native biodiversity given on-going increases in human population.

PubMed

Pepper, D A; Lada, Hania; Thomson, James R; Bakar, K Shuvo; Lake, P S; Mac Nally, Ralph

2017-01-15

Most natural assets, including native biodiversity (our focus), are under increasing threat from direct (loss of habitat, hunting) and indirect (climate change) human actions. Most human impacts arise from increasing human populations coupled with rises in per capita resource use. The rates of change of human actions generally outpace those to which the biota can respond or adapt. If we are to maintain native biodiversity, then we must develop ways to envisage how the biota may be affected over the next several decades to guide management and policy responses. We consider the future for Australia's native biodiversity in the context of two assumptions. First, the human population in Australia will be 40million by 2050, which has been mooted by federal government agencies. Second, greenhouse gas emissions will track the highest rates considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The scenarios are based on major drivers of change, which were constructed from seven key drivers of change pertinent to native biodiversity. Five scenarios deal with differing distributions of the human population driven by uncertainties in climate change and in the human responses to climate change. Other scenarios are governed largely by global change and explore different rates of resource use, unprecedented rates of technological change, capabilities and societal values. A narrative for each scenario is provided. The set of scenarios spans a wide range of possible future paths for Australia, with different implications for the future of native biodiversity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Smartphone Camera-Based Indoor Positioning Algorithm of Crowded Scenarios with the Assistance of Deep CNN.

PubMed

Jiao, Jichao; Li, Fei; Deng, Zhongliang; Ma, Wenjing

2017-03-28

Considering the installation cost and coverage, the received signal strength indicator (RSSI)-based indoor positioning system is widely used across the world. However, the indoor positioning performance, due to the interference of wireless signals that are caused by the complex indoor environment that includes a crowded population, cannot achieve the demands of indoor location-based services. In this paper, we focus on increasing the signal strength estimation accuracy considering the population density, which is different to the other RSSI-based indoor positioning methods. Therefore, we propose a new wireless signal compensation model considering the population density, distance, and frequency. First of all, the number of individuals in an indoor crowded scenario can be calculated by our convolutional neural network (CNN)-based human detection approach. Then, the relationship between the population density and the signal attenuation is described in our model. Finally, we use the trilateral positioning principle to realize the pedestrian location. According to the simulation and tests in the crowded scenarios, the proposed model increases the accuracy of the signal strength estimation by 1.53 times compared to that without considering the human body. Therefore, the localization accuracy is less than 1.37 m, which indicates that our algorithm can improve the indoor positioning performance and is superior to other RSSI models.

Effects of small variations of speed of sound in optoacoustic tomographic imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deán-Ben, X. Luís; Ntziachristos, Vasilis; Razansky, Daniel, E-mail: dr@tum.de

2014-07-15

Purpose: Speed of sound difference in the imaged object and surrounding coupling medium may reduce the resolution and overall quality of optoacoustic tomographic reconstructions obtained by assuming a uniform acoustic medium. In this work, the authors investigate the effects of acoustic heterogeneities and discuss potential benefits of accounting for those during the reconstruction procedure. Methods: The time shift of optoacoustic signals in an acoustically heterogeneous medium is studied theoretically by comparing different continuous and discrete wave propagation models. A modification of filtered back-projection reconstruction is subsequently implemented by considering a straight acoustic rays model for ultrasound propagation. The results obtainedmore » with this reconstruction procedure are compared numerically and experimentally to those obtained assuming a heuristically fitted uniform speed of sound in both full-view and limited-view optoacoustic tomography scenarios. Results: The theoretical analysis showcases that the errors in the time-of-flight of the signals predicted by considering the straight acoustic rays model tend to be generally small. When using this model for reconstructing simulated data, the resulting images accurately represent the theoretical ones. On the other hand, significant deviations in the location of the absorbing structures are found when using a uniform speed of sound assumption. The experimental results obtained with tissue-mimicking phantoms and a mouse postmortem are found to be consistent with the numerical simulations. Conclusions: Accurate analysis of effects of small speed of sound variations demonstrates that accounting for differences in the speed of sound allows improving optoacoustic reconstruction results in realistic imaging scenarios involving acoustic heterogeneities in tissues and surrounding media.« less

Chances of short-term cooling trends over Canada for the next decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grenier, Patrick; de Elia, Ramon; Chaumont, Diane

2014-05-01

As climate services continue to develop in Quebec, Canada, an increasing number of requests are made for providing information relevant for the near term. As a response, one approach has been to consider short-term cooling trends as a basis for climate products. This project comprises different aspects: technical steps, knowledge transfer, and societal use. Each step does represent a different challenge. The technical part, i.e. producing probabilistic distributions of short-term temperature trends, involves relatively complex scenario construction methods including bias-related post-processing, and access to wide simulation and observation databases. Calculations are performed on 60 CMIP5-based scenarios on a grid covering Canada during the period 2006-2035, and for 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25-year trend durations. Knowledge transfer implies overcoming misinterpretation, given that probabilistic projections based on simulation ensembles are not perfectly related to real-Earth possible outcomes. Finally, societal use of this information remains the biggest challenge. On the one hand, users clearly state their interest in near-term relevant information, and intuitively it seems clear that short-term cooling trends embedded within the long-term warming path should be considered in adaptation plans, for avoiding over-adaptation. On the other hand, the exact way of incorporating such information within a decision-making process has proven not to be obvious. Irrespective of that, the study and communication of short-term cooling chances is necessary for preventing decision-makers to infer from the eventual occurrence of such a trend that global warming isn't happening. The presentation will discuss the three aspects aforementioned.

Epidemiological and partial budget analysis for treatment of subclinical Staphylococcus aureus intramammary infections considering microbiological and cytological scenarios.

PubMed

Petzer, Inge-Marié; Etter, Eric M C; Donkin, Edward F; Webb, Edward C; Karzis, Joanne

2017-12-01

An innovative method was investigated to aid in the elimination of Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) intramammary infections (IMI) from dairy herds. A stochastic model explore the economic benefit of three-day or eight-day treatment of subclinical IMI in all S. aureus infected cows or in only those with a somatic cell count (SCC) exceeding 200,000 cells/ml. An epidemiological model was developed to run parallel to the economic model that would predict the S. aureus IMI likely to persist, develop new infections and clinical mastitis. In the economic model a first algorithm was used to consider the low prevalence (LP) scenario and made use of S. aureus prevalence information provided by retrospective analysis of microbiological and cytological results in South Africa (2008-2012). The data used considered Staphylococcus aureus prevalence from [1.495; 1.595] 95% to [6.72; 6.95] 95% for SCC≤200,000 and SCC>200,000 cells/ml respectively. A second algorithm considered the high prevalence (HP) scenario to evaluate a simulated situation with a 5[U1] [R12] to 25% prevalence. Scenarios of low or high transmission ratio (TR) were included in the model according to the hygiene management on the farm. Probabilities and costs were calculated over 255days. The economic models predicted average cost indices for low S. aureus IMI and low TR to vary from -3179 ZAR (South African Rands) when subclinical cases with SCC higher than 200,000 cell/ml were treated for eight days, to -3663 ZAR when all subclinical S. aureus IMI were treated for three days. With a HP and high TR of S. aureus the average cost indices changed from -18,042 ZAR when none to -5433 ZAR per 255days when all S. aureus IMI were treated for eight days. The epidemiological model in this study predicted substantial benefit of treatment mainly in high TR scenarios. New IMI decreased up to77% in the three-day and up to 91% in the eight-day treatment scenarios. In the HP scenarios, persistent IMI were reduced by 94%. The number of clinical cases predicted with no treatment for subclinical infections was higher than the total number of clinical and subclinical cases in scenarios where cows were treated three or eight days. Initial prudent treatment of subclinical IMI resulted in less overall treatments and less new, persistent and clinical cases. Combined results of economic and epidemiological models indicated that the option that cost the least did not always have the best epidemiological outcome. Models may assist in optimising and balancing decisions relating to financial and IMI. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

What Can Students Learn in an Extended Role-Play Simulation on Technology and Society?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loui, Michael C.

2009-01-01

In a small course on technology and society, students participated in an extended role-play simulation for two weeks. Each student played a different adult character in a fictional community, which faces technological decisions in three scenarios set in the near future. The three scenarios involved stem cell research, nanotechnology, and privacy.…

Studying Professional Knowledge Use in Practice Using Multimedia Scenarios Delivered Online

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herbst, Patricio; Chazan, Daniel

2015-01-01

We describe how multimedia scenarios delivered online can be used in instruments for the study of professional knowledge. Based on our work in the study of the knowledge and rationality involved in mathematics teaching, we describe how the study of professional knowledge writ large can benefit from the capacity to represent know-how using…

Department of Homeland Security national planning scenarios: a spectrum of imaging findings to educate the radiologists.

PubMed

Burch, Heather; Kitley, Charles A; Naeem, Mohammed

2010-07-01

Following the events of the September 11th attack, there has been an increasing concern about the possibility of a future attack on our homeland. In response, the United States Department of Homeland Defense has planned for a future attack by formulating multiple scenarios which may occur in the event of such a disaster. Radiology will play a key role in each of these scenarios, assisting with triage, diagnosis, and therapy of the large populations which potentially could be involved. This article describes some of these scenarios as well the response which will be expected of the radiology community in the event of such a disaster.

Optimizing pricing and ordering strategies in a three-level supply chain under return policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noori-daryan, Mahsa; Taleizadeh, Ata Allah

2018-03-01

This paper develops an economic production quantity model in a three-echelon supply chain composing of a supplier, a manufacturer and a wholesaler under two scenarios. As the first scenario, we consider a return contract between the outside supplier and the supplier and also between the manufacturer and the wholesaler, but in the second one, the return policy between the manufacturer and the wholesaler is not applied. Here, it is assumed that shortage is permitted and demand is price-sensitive. The principal goal of the research is to maximize the total profit of the chain by optimizing the order quantity of the supplier and the selling prices of the manufacturer and the wholesaler. Nash-equilibrium approach is considered between the chain members. In the end, a numerical example is presented to clarify the applicability of the introduced model and compare the profit of the chain under two scenarios.

More nonlocality with less entanglement in Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt experiments using inefficient detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilley, Daniel; Chitambar, Eric

2018-06-01

It is well-known that in certain scenarios weakly entangled states can generate stronger nonlocal effects than their maximally entangled counterparts. In this paper, we consider violations of the Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt (CHSH) inequality when one party has inefficient detectors, a scenario known as an asymmetric Bell experiment. For any fixed detection efficiency, we derive a simple upper bound on the entanglement needed to violate the inequality by more than some specified amount κ ≥0 . When κ =0 , the amount of entanglement in all states violating the inequality goes to zero as the detection efficiency approaches 50 % from above. We finally consider the scenario in which detection inefficiency arises for only one choice of local measurement. In this case, it is shown that the CHSH inequality can always be violated for any nonzero detection efficiency and any choice of noncommuting measurements.

Comparative Environmental Benefits of Lightweight Design in the Automotive Sector: The Case Study of Recycled Magnesium Against CFRP and Steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Errico, Fabrizio; Ranza, Luigi

A LCA feasibility study was undertaken to determine the environmental impact of an Eco-magnesium process route by recycled chips to manufacture panel for the automotive sector to be compared with comparative scenarios, a non-recycled carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) and a baseline steel-made component scenario. The objective of this LCA study was to assess the actual benefits of a lightweight solution considering the whole life cycle, including the dirty-phase (i.e. the "cradle-to-exit gate" stage) that impacts differently for the different materials. For this reason the analysis has regarded the net "cradle-to-grave" scenario. Different automotive floor pans were then compared considering the rate of fuel consumption during vehicle operation — i.e. the fuel-mass correlation factor — and the different material substitution factors allowed by the different materials selected.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hellwinckel, Chad; de la Torre Ugarte, Daniel; Perlack, Robert D

An integrated, socioeconomic biogeophysical model is used to analyze the interactions of cap-and-trade legislation and the Renewable Fuels Standard. Five alternative policy scenarios were considered with the purpose of identifying policies that act in a synergistic manner to reduce carbon emissions, increase economic returns to agriculture, and adequately meet ethanol mandates. We conclude that climate and energy policies can best be implemented together by offering carbon offset payments to conservation tillage, herbaceous grasses for biomass, and by constraining crop residue removal for ethanol feedstocks to carbon neutral level. When comparing this scenario to the Baseline scenario, the agricultural sector realizesmore » an economic benefit of US$156 billion by 2030 and emissions are reduced by 135 Tg C-equivalent (Eq) yr 1. Results also indicate that geographic location of cellulosic feedstocks could shift significantly depending on the final policies implemented in cap and trade legislation. Placement of cellulosic ethanol facilities should consider these possible shifts when determining site location.« less

Quantitative valuation placed by children and teenagers on participation in two hypothetical research scenarios.

PubMed

Funnell, Dan; Fertleman, Caroline; Carrey, Liz; Brierley, Joe

2012-11-01

For paediatric medicine to advance, research must be conducted specifically with children. Concern about poor recruitment has led to debate about payments to child research participants. Although concerns about undue influence by such 'compensation' have been expressed, it is useful to determine whether children can relate the time and inconvenience associated with participation to the value of payment offered. This study explores children's ability to determine fair remuneration for research participation, and reviews payments to children participating in research. Forty children were interviewed before outpatient visits at two London Hospitals: Great Ormond Street Children's Hospital and the Whittington Hospital District General Hospital. Children were asked to value their involvement in two hypothetical research scenarios - the first an 'additional blood sample', the second also involving daily oral oil capsules taken for a fortnight before further venesection. Background knowledge about familiarity with money, and experience with hospitalisation was assessed. The mean valuation of involvement in the second scenario (£13.18) was higher than in the first (£2.84) (p<0.001). This higher valuation persisted when children were categorised into groups 'aged 12+' and 'below 12'. Those undergoing a blood test on the day placed a higher valuation on participation in the second scenario (£10.43, £21.67, p=0.044). These children aged 8-16 demonstrated the capacity to discern a fair valuation for participation in medical research. The monetary sums are influenced by the time and inconvenience involved in the research, and by the extent of recent experience with hospital procedures. The authors review current ethical thinking regarding payments to child research participants and suggest that a fair wage model might be an ethically acceptable way to increase participation of children in research.

Modelling multiple sources of dissemination bias in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bowden, Jack; Jackson, Dan; Thompson, Simon G

2010-03-30

Asymmetry in the funnel plot for a meta-analysis suggests the presence of dissemination bias. This may be caused by publication bias through the decisions of journal editors, by selective reporting of research results by authors or by a combination of both. Typically, study results that are statistically significant or have larger estimated effect sizes are more likely to appear in the published literature, hence giving a biased picture of the evidence-base. Previous statistical approaches for addressing dissemination bias have assumed only a single selection mechanism. Here we consider a more realistic scenario in which multiple dissemination processes, involving both the publishing authors and journals, are operating. In practical applications, the methods can be used to provide sensitivity analyses for the potential effects of multiple dissemination biases operating in meta-analysis.

Economical ground data delivery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markley, Richard W.; Byrne, Russell H.; Bromberg, Daniel E.

1994-01-01

Data delivery in the Deep Space Network (DSN) involves transmission of a small amount of constant, high-priority traffic and a large amount of bursty, low priority data. The bursty traffic may be initially buffered and then metered back slowly as bandwidth becomes available. Today both types of data are transmitted over dedicated leased circuits. The authors investigated the potential of saving money by designing a hybrid communications architecture that uses leased circuits for high-priority network communications and dial-up circuits for low-priority traffic. Such an architecture may significantly reduce costs and provide an emergency backup. The architecture presented here may also be applied to any ground station-to-customer network within the range of a common carrier. The authors compare estimated costs for various scenarios and suggest security safeguards that should be considered.

Experimental demonstration of nonbilocal quantum correlations.

PubMed

Saunders, Dylan J; Bennet, Adam J; Branciard, Cyril; Pryde, Geoff J

2017-04-01

Quantum mechanics admits correlations that cannot be explained by local realistic models. The most studied models are the standard local hidden variable models, which satisfy the well-known Bell inequalities. To date, most works have focused on bipartite entangled systems. We consider correlations between three parties connected via two independent entangled states. We investigate the new type of so-called "bilocal" models, which correspondingly involve two independent hidden variables. These models describe scenarios that naturally arise in quantum networks, where several independent entanglement sources are used. Using photonic qubits, we build such a linear three-node quantum network and demonstrate nonbilocal correlations by violating a Bell-like inequality tailored for bilocal models. Furthermore, we show that the demonstration of nonbilocality is more noise-tolerant than that of standard Bell nonlocality in our three-party quantum network.

Long-term US energy outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friesen, G.

Chase Econometrics summarizes the assumptions underlying long-term US energy forecasts. To illustrate the uncertainty involved in forecasting for the period to the year 2000, they compare Chase Econometrics forecasts with some recent projections prepared by the DOE Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis for the annual National Energy Policy Plan supplement. Scenario B, the mid-range reference case, is emphasized. The purpose of providing Scenario B as well as Scenarios A and C as alternate cases is to show the sensitivity of oil price projections to small swings in energy demand. 4 tables.

CALIBRATION OF SUBSURFACE BATCH AND REACTIVE-TRANSPORT MODELS INVOLVING COMPLEX BIOGEOCHEMICAL PROCESSES

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, the calibration of subsurface batch and reactive-transport models involving complex biogeochemical processes was systematically evaluated. Two hypothetical nitrate biodegradation scenarios were developed and simulated in numerical experiments to evaluate the perfor...

Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

2012-09-01

End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed value. However, this cost was minimal when local conservation actions were part of a concerted coast-wide plan. The simulations demonstrate the utility of using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model within NOAA’s Integrated Ecosystem Assessment, by illustrating an end-to-end modeling tool that allows consideration of multiple management alternatives that are relevant to numerous state, federal and private interests.

Neurons other than motor neurons in motor neuron disease.

PubMed

Ruffoli, Riccardo; Biagioni, Francesca; Busceti, Carla L; Gaglione, Anderson; Ryskalin, Larisa; Gambardella, Stefano; Frati, Alessandro; Fornai, Francesco

2017-11-01

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is typically defined by a loss of motor neurons in the central nervous system. Accordingly, morphological analysis for decades considered motor neurons (in the cortex, brainstem and spinal cord) as the neuronal population selectively involved in ALS. Similarly, this was considered the pathological marker to score disease severity ex vivo both in patients and experimental models. However, the concept of non-autonomous motor neuron death was used recently to indicate the need for additional cell types to produce motor neuron death in ALS. This means that motor neuron loss occurs only when they are connected with other cell types. This concept originally emphasized the need for resident glia as well as non-resident inflammatory cells. Nowadays, the additional role of neurons other than motor neurons emerged in the scenario to induce non-autonomous motor neuron death. In fact, in ALS neurons diverse from motor neurons are involved. These cells play multiple roles in ALS: (i) they participate in the chain of events to produce motor neuron loss; (ii) they may even degenerate more than and before motor neurons. In the present manuscript evidence about multi-neuronal involvement in ALS patients and experimental models is discussed. Specific sub-classes of neurons in the whole spinal cord are reported either to degenerate or to trigger neuronal degeneration, thus portraying ALS as a whole spinal cord disorder rather than a disease affecting motor neurons solely. This is associated with a novel concept in motor neuron disease which recruits abnormal mechanisms of cell to cell communication.

"What I Want and What You Want": Children's Thinking about Competing Personal Preferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Komolova, Masha; Wainryb, Cecilia

2011-01-01

This study examined how children reason about competing personal preferences. Seventy-two participants (mean ages 5 years 5 months, 10 years 4 months, and 17 years 7 months) considered three hypothetical scenarios in which a protagonist's personal preference was in conflict with her or his friend's personal preference. Scenarios varied in the…

Conversations: Risk, Passion and Frank Speaking in Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fulford, Amanda

2012-01-01

This article considers conversations in and about education. To focus the discussion, it uses the scenario of a conversation between a trainee teacher and her mentor reflecting together on a lesson that the trainee has just taught. I begin by outlining the notion of reflective practice as popularised by Donald Schon, and show how, in the scenario,…

Supernovae Ia in 2017: a long time delay from merger/accretion to explosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soker, Noam

2018-04-01

I use recent observational and theoretical studies of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) to further constrain the viable SN Ia scenarios and to argue that there must be a substantial time delay between the end of the merger of the white dwarf (WD) with a companion or the end of mass accretion on to the WD and its terminal explosion. This merger/accretion to explosion delay (MED) is required to allow the binary system to lead to a more or less spherical explosion and to prevent a pre-explosion ionizing radiation. Considering these recent results and the required MED, I conclude that the core degenerate scenario is somewhat more favorable over the other scenarios, followed by the double degenerate scenario. Although the single degenerate scenario is viable as well, it is less likely to account for common (normal) SN Ia. As all scenarios require substantial MED, the MED has turned from a disadvantage of the core degenerate scenario to a challenge that theory should overcome. I hope that the requirement for a MED will stimulate the discussion of the different SN Ia scenarios and the comparison of the scenarios to each other.

Combined sewer overflow control with LID based on SWMM: an example in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Liao, Z L; Zhang, G Q; Wu, Z H; He, Y; Chen, H

2015-01-01

Although low impact development (LID) has been commonly applied across the developed countries for mitigating the negative impacts of combined sewer overflows (CSOs) on urban hydrological environment, it has not been widely used in developing countries yet. In this paper, a typical combined sewer system in an urbanized area of Shanghai, China was used to demonstrate how to design and choose CSO control solutions with LID using stormwater management model. We constructed and simulated three types of CSO control scenarios. Our findings support the notion that LID measures possess favorable capability on CSO reduction. Nevertheless, the green scenarios which are completely comprised by LID measures fail to achieve the maximal effectiveness on CSO reduction, while the gray-green scenarios (LID measure combined with gray measures) achieve it. The unit cost-effectiveness of each type of scenario sorts as: green scenario > gray-green scenario > gray scenario. Actually, as the storage tank is built in the case catchment, a complete application of green scenario is inaccessible here. Through comprehensive evaluation and comparison, the gray-green scenario F which used the combination of storage tank, bio-retention and rain barrels is considered as the most feasible one in this case.

The influence of taxon sampling on Bayesian divergence time inference under scenarios of rate heterogeneity among lineages.

PubMed

Soares, André E R; Schrago, Carlos G

2015-01-07

Although taxon sampling is commonly considered an important issue in phylogenetic inference, it is rarely considered in the Bayesian estimation of divergence times. In fact, the studies conducted to date have presented ambiguous results, and the relevance of taxon sampling for molecular dating remains unclear. In this study, we developed a series of simulations that, after six hundred Bayesian molecular dating analyses, allowed us to evaluate the impact of taxon sampling on chronological estimates under three scenarios of among-lineage rate heterogeneity. The first scenario allowed us to examine the influence of the number of terminals on the age estimates based on a strict molecular clock. The second scenario imposed an extreme example of lineage specific rate variation, and the third scenario permitted extensive rate variation distributed along the branches. We also analyzed empirical data on selected mitochondrial genomes of mammals. Our results showed that in the strict molecular-clock scenario (Case I), taxon sampling had a minor impact on the accuracy of the time estimates, although the precision of the estimates was greater with an increased number of terminals. The effect was similar in the scenario (Case III) based on rate variation distributed among the branches. Only under intensive rate variation among lineages (Case II) taxon sampling did result in biased estimates. The results of an empirical analysis corroborated the simulation findings. We demonstrate that taxonomic sampling affected divergence time inference but that its impact was significant if the rates deviated from those derived for the strict molecular clock. Increased taxon sampling improved the precision and accuracy of the divergence time estimates, but the impact on precision is more relevant. On average, biased estimates were obtained only if lineage rate variation was pronounced. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of scenario-neutral methods to quantify impacts of climate change on water resources in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ascott, M.; Macdonald, D.; Lapworth, D.; Tindimugaya, C.

2017-12-01

Quantification of the impact of climate change on water resources is essential for future resource planning. Unfortunately, climate change impact studies in African regions are often hindered by the extent in variability in future rainfall predictions, which also diverge from current drying trends. To overcome this limitation, "scenario-neutral" methods have been developed which stress a hydrological system using a wide range of climate futures to build a "climate response surface". We developed a hydrological model and scenario-neutral framework to quantify climate change impacts on river flows in the Katonga catchment, Uganda. Using the lumped catchment model GR4J, an acceptable calibration to historic daily flows (1966 - 2010, NSE = 0.69) was achieved. Using a delta change approach, we then systematically changed rainfall and PET inputs to develop response surfaces for key metrics, developed with Ugandan water resources planners (e.g. Q5, Q95). Scenarios from the CMIP5 models for 2030s and 2050s were then overlain on the response surface. The CMIP5 scenarios show consistent increases in temperature but large variability in rainfall increases, which results in substantial variability in increases in river flows. The developed response surface covers a wide range of climate futures beyond the CMIP5 projections, and can help water resources planners understand the sensitivity of water resource systems to future changes. When future climate scenarios are available, these can be directly overlain on the response surface without the need to re-run the hydrological model. Further work will consider using scenario-neutral approaches in more complex, semi-distributed models (e.g. SWAT), and will consider land use and socioeconomic change.

BINGO: a code for the efficient computation of the scalar bi-spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Dhiraj Kumar; Sriramkumar, L.; Martin, Jérôme

2013-05-01

We present a new and accurate Fortran code, the BI-spectra and Non-Gaussianity Operator (BINGO), for the efficient numerical computation of the scalar bi-spectrum and the non-Gaussianity parameter fNL in single field inflationary models involving the canonical scalar field. The code can calculate all the different contributions to the bi-spectrum and the parameter fNL for an arbitrary triangular configuration of the wavevectors. Focusing firstly on the equilateral limit, we illustrate the accuracy of BINGO by comparing the results from the code with the spectral dependence of the bi-spectrum expected in power law inflation. Then, considering an arbitrary triangular configuration, we contrast the numerical results with the analytical expression available in the slow roll limit, for, say, the case of the conventional quadratic potential. Considering a non-trivial scenario involving deviations from slow roll, we compare the results from the code with the analytical results that have recently been obtained in the case of the Starobinsky model in the equilateral limit. As an immediate application, we utilize BINGO to examine of the power of the non-Gaussianity parameter fNL to discriminate between various inflationary models that admit departures from slow roll and lead to similar features in the scalar power spectrum. We close with a summary and discussion on the implications of the results we obtain.

Testing Domestication Scenarios of Lima Bean (Phaseolus lunatus L.) in Mesoamerica: Insights from Genome-Wide Genetic Markers

PubMed Central

Chacón-Sánchez, María I.; Martínez-Castillo, Jaime

2017-01-01

Plant domestication can be seen as a long-term process that involves a complex interplay among demographic processes and evolutionary forces. Previous studies have suggested two domestication scenarios for Lima bean in Mesoamerica: two separate domestication events, one from gene pool MI in central-western Mexico and another one from gene pool MII in the area Guatemala-Costa Rica, or a single domestication from gene pool MI in central-western Mexico followed by post-domestication gene flow with wild populations. In this study we evaluated the genetic structure of the wild gene pool and tested these two competing domestication scenarios of Lima bean in Mesoamerica by applying an ABC approach to a set of genome-wide SNP markers. The results confirm the existence of three gene pools in wild Lima bean, two Mesoamerican gene pools (MI and MII) and the Andean gene pool (AI), and suggest the existence of another gene pool in central Colombia. The results indicate that although both domestication scenarios may be supported by genetic data, higher statistical support was given to the single domestication scenario in central-western Mexico followed by admixture with wild populations. Domestication would have involved strong founder effects reflected in loss of genetic diversity and increased LD levels in landraces. Genomic regions affected by selection were detected and these may harbor candidate genes related to domestication. PMID:28955351

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

2018-03-01

The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land‐Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low‐Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI‐Land

PubMed Central

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

2018-01-01

Abstract The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land‐use change (LUC). Land‐based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI‐Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land‐use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI‐Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low‐emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

Investigation of active interrogation techniques to detect special nuclear material in maritime environments: Boarded search of a cargo container ship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grogan, Brandon R.; Henkel, James J.; Johnson, Jeffrey O.; Mihalczo, John T.; Miller, Thomas M.; Patton, Bruce W.

2013-12-01

The detonation of a terrorist nuclear weapon in the United States would result in the massive loss of life and grave economic damage. Even if a device was not detonated, its known or suspected presence aboard a cargo container ship in a U.S. port would have major economic and political consequences. One possible means to prevent this threat would be to board a ship at sea and search for the device before it reaches port. The scenario considered here involves a small Coast Guard team with strong intelligence boarding a container ship to search for a nuclear device. Using active interrogation, the team would nonintrusively search a block of shipping containers to locate the fissile material. Potential interrogation source and detector technologies for the team are discussed. The methodology of the scan is presented along with a technique for calculating the required interrogation source strength using computer simulations. MCNPX was used to construct a computer model of a container ship, and several search scenarios were simulated. The results of the simulations are presented in terms of the source strength required for each interrogation scenario. Validation measurements were performed in order to scale these simulation results to expected performance. Interrogations through the short (2.4 m) axis of a standardized shipping container appear to be feasible given the entire range of container loadings tested. Interrogations through several containers at once or a single container through its long (12.2 m) axis do not appear to be viable with a portable interrogation system.

Material and energy recovery in integrated waste management systems: a life-cycle costing approach.

PubMed

Massarutto, Antonio; de Carli, Alessandro; Graffi, Matteo

2011-01-01

A critical assumption of studies assessing comparatively waste management options concerns the constant average cost for selective collection regardless the source separation level (SSL) reached, and the neglect of the mass constraint. The present study compares alternative waste management scenarios through the development of a desktop model that tries to remove the above assumption. Several alternative scenarios based on different combinations of energy and materials recovery are applied to two imaginary areas modelled in order to represent a typical Northern Italian setting. External costs and benefits implied by scenarios are also considered. Scenarios are compared on the base of the full cost for treating the total waste generated in the area. The model investigates the factors that influence the relative convenience of alternative scenarios. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Joint Command Decision Support System

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-01

2010 Olympics and Paralympics games , about a hundred agencies and organizations were involved with the safety and security of the games . Accordingly...Joint Task Force Games (JTFG) staff members were augmented with other Command Staff from Canada Command and Canadian Operational Support Command...CANOSCOM) to create an operational HQ. The scenario used for demonstration was based on fictitious Olympic Games (Breton and Guitouni 2008). The scenario

Pre-Service Teachers' Perspectives on Using Scenario-Based Virtual Worlds in Science Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennedy-Clark, Shannon

2011-01-01

This paper presents the findings of a study on the current knowledge and attitudes of pre-service teachers on the use of scenario-based multi-user virtual environments in science education. The 28 participants involved in the study were introduced to "Virtual Singapura," a multi-user virtual environment, and completed an open-ended questionnaire.…

78 FR 75334 - Meeting of the National Commission on the Structure of the Air Force

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-11

... for fiscal year 2015. A second team will build a future U.S. Air Force with 55% Active Component and... mission sets and Core Functions of the U.S. Air Force. The second day of the meeting involves a crisis planning exercise for a hypothetical war scenario that occurs in 2018. The scenario employed will be...

Evaluating landfill aftercare strategies: A life cycle assessment approach.

PubMed

Turner, David A; Beaven, Richard P; Woodman, Nick D

2017-05-01

This study investigates the potential impacts caused by the loss of active environmental control measures during the aftercare period of landfill management. A combined mechanistic solute flow model and life cycle assessment (LCA) approach was used to evaluate the potential impacts of leachate emissions over a 10,000year time horizon. A continuum of control loss possibilities occurring at different times and for different durations were investigated for four different basic aftercare scenarios, including a typical aftercare scenario involving a low permeability cap and three accelerated aftercare scenarios involving higher initial infiltration rates. Assuming a 'best case' where control is never lost, the largest potential impacts resulted from the typical aftercare scenario. The maximum difference between potential impacts from the 'best case' and the 'worst case', where control fails at the earliest possible point and is never reinstated, was only a fourfold increase. This highlights potential deficiencies in standard life cycle impact assessment practice, which are discussed. Nevertheless, the results show how the influence of active control loss on the potential impacts of landfilling varies considerably depending on the aftercare strategy used and highlight the importance that leachate treatment efficiencies have upon impacts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental consequences of future biogas technologies based on separated slurry.

PubMed

Hamelin, Lorie; Wesnæs, Marianne; Wenzel, Henrik; Petersen, Bjørn M

2011-07-01

This consequential life cycle assessment study highlights the key environmental aspects of producing biogas from separated pig and cow slurry, a relatively new but probable scenario for future biogas production, as it avoids the reliance on constrained carbon cosubstrates. Three scenarios involving different slurry separation technologies have been assessed and compared to a business-as-usual reference slurry management scenario. The results show that the environmental benefits of such biogas production are highly dependent upon the efficiency of the separation technology used to concentrate the volatile solids in the solid fraction. The biogas scenario involving the most efficient separation technology resulted in a dry matter separation efficiency of 87% and allowed a net reduction of the global warming potential of 40%, compared to the reference slurry management. This figure comprises the whole slurry life cycle, including the flows bypassing the biogas plant. This study includes soil carbon balances and a method for quantifying the changes in yield resulting from increased nitrogen availability as well as for quantifying mineral fertilizers displacement. Soil carbon balances showed that between 13 and 50% less carbon ends up in the soil pool with the different biogas alternatives, as opposed to the reference slurry management.

Surgeons' Knowledge and Practices Regarding the Role of Radiation Therapy in Breast Cancer Management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Jessica; Griffith, Kent A.; Hawley, Sarah T.

2013-12-01

Purpose: Population-based studies suggest underuse of radiation therapy, especially after mastectomy. Because radiation oncology is a referral-based specialty, knowledge and attitudes of upstream providers, specifically surgeons, may influence patients' decisions regarding radiation, including whether it is even considered. Therefore, we sought to evaluate surgeons' knowledge of pertinent risk information, their patterns of referral, and the correlates of surgeon knowledge and referral in specific breast cancer scenarios. Methods and Materials: We surveyed a national sample of 750 surgeons, with a 67% response rate. We analyzed responses from those who had seen at least 1 breast cancer patient in the past yearmore » (n=403), using logistic regression models to identify correlates of knowledge and appropriate referral. Results: Overall, 87% of respondents were general surgeons, and 64% saw >10 breast cancer patients in the previous year. In a scenario involving a 45-year-old undergoing lumpectomy, only 45% correctly estimated the risk of locoregional recurrence without radiation therapy, but 97% would refer to radiation oncology. In a patient with 2 of 20 nodes involved after mastectomy, 30% would neither refer to radiation oncology nor provide accurate information to make radiation decisions. In a patient with 4 of 20 nodes involved after mastectomy, 9% would not refer to radiation oncology. Fewer than half knew that the Oxford meta-analysis revealed a survival benefit from radiation therapy after lumpectomy (45%) or mastectomy (32%). Only 16% passed a 7-item knowledge test; female and more-experienced surgeons were more likely to pass. Factors significantly associated with appropriate referral to radiation oncology included breast cancer volume, tumor board participation, and knowledge. Conclusions: Many surgeons have inadequate knowledge regarding the role of radiation in breast cancer management, especially after mastectomy. Targeted educational interventions may improve the quality of care.« less

Modelling as an indispensible research tool in the information society.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouma, Johan

2016-04-01

Science and society would be well advised to develop a different relationship as the information revolution penetrates all aspects of modern life. Rather than produce clear answers to clear questions in a top-down manner, land-use issues related to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) present "wicked"problems involving different, strongly opiniated, stakeholders with conflicting ideas and interests and risk-averse politicians. The Dutch government has invited its citizens to develop a "science agenda", defining future research needs, implicitly suggesting that the research community is unable to do so. Time, therefore, for a pro-active approach to more convincingly define our:"societal license to research". For soil science this could imply a focus on the SDGs , considering soils as living, characteristically different, dynamic bodies in a landscape, to be mapped in ways that allow generation of suitable modelling data. Models allow a dynamic characterization of water- and nutrient regimes and plant growth in soils both for actual and future conditions, reflecting e.g. effects of climate or land-use change or alternative management practices. Engaging modern stakeholders in a bottom-up manner implies continuous involvement and "joint learning" from project initiation to completion, where modelling results act as building blocks to explore alternative scenarios. Modern techniques allow very rapid calculations and innovative visualization. Everything is possible but only modelling can articulate the economic, social and environmental consequences of each scenario, demonstrating in a pro-active manner the crucial and indispensible role of research. But choices are to be made by stakeholders and reluctant policy makers and certainly not by scientists who should carefully guard their independance. Only clear results in the end are convincing proof for the impact of science, requiring therefore continued involvement of scientists up to the very end of projects. To realize the described paradigm shift, that will provide meaning to abstract and often misused terms like inter- and trandisciplinarity, fundamental changes are needed in the way the research process is organized, including its evaluation..

Genomic selection using beef commercial carcass phenotypes.

PubMed

Todd, D L; Roughsedge, T; Woolliams, J A

2014-03-01

In this study, an industry terminal breeding goal was used in a deterministic simulation, using selection index methodology, to predict genetic gain in a beef population modelled on the UK pedigree Limousin, when using genomic selection (GS) and incorporating phenotype information from novel commercial carcass traits. The effect of genotype-environment interaction was investigated by including the model variations of the genetic correlation between purebred and commercial cross-bred performance (ρX). Three genomic scenarios were considered: (1) genomic breeding values (GBV)+estimated breeding values (EBV) for existing selection traits; (2) GBV for three novel commercial carcass traits+EBV in existing traits; and (3) GBV for novel and existing traits plus EBV for existing traits. Each of the three scenarios was simulated for a range of training population (TP) sizes and with three values of ρX. Scenarios 2 and 3 predicted substantially higher percentage increases over current selection than Scenario 1. A TP of 2000 sires, each with 20 commercial progeny with carcass phenotypes, and assuming a ρX of 0.7, is predicted to increase gain by 40% over current selection in Scenario 3. The percentage increase in gain over current selection increased with decreasing ρX; however, the effect of varying ρX was reduced at high TP sizes for Scenarios 2 and 3. A further non-genomic scenario (4) was considered simulating a conventional population-wide progeny test using EBV only. With 20 commercial cross-bred progenies per sire, similar gain was predicted to Scenario 3 with TP=5000 and ρX=1.0. The range of increases in genetic gain predicted for terminal traits when using GS are of similar magnitude to those observed after the implementation of BLUP technology in the United Kingdom. It is concluded that implementation of GS in a terminal sire breeding goal, using purebred phenotypes alone, will be sub-optimal compared with the inclusion of novel commercial carcass phenotypes in genomic evaluations.

Novel hybrid linear stochastic with non-linear extreme learning machine methods for forecasting monthly rainfall a tropical climate.

PubMed

Zeynoddin, Mohammad; Bonakdari, Hossein; Azari, Arash; Ebtehaj, Isa; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Riahi Madavar, Hossein

2018-09-15

A novel hybrid approach is presented that can more accurately predict monthly rainfall in a tropical climate by integrating a linear stochastic model with a powerful non-linear extreme learning machine method. This new hybrid method was then evaluated by considering four general scenarios. In the first scenario, the modeling process is initiated without preprocessing input data as a base case. While in other three scenarios, the one-step and two-step procedures are utilized to make the model predictions more precise. The mentioned scenarios are based on a combination of stationarization techniques (i.e., differencing, seasonal and non-seasonal standardization and spectral analysis), and normality transforms (i.e., Box-Cox, John and Draper, Yeo and Johnson, Johnson, Box-Cox-Mod, log, log standard, and Manly). In scenario 2, which is a one-step scenario, the stationarization methods are employed as preprocessing approaches. In scenario 3 and 4, different combinations of normality transform, and stationarization methods are considered as preprocessing techniques. In total, 61 sub-scenarios are evaluated resulting 11013 models (10785 linear methods, 4 nonlinear models, and 224 hybrid models are evaluated). The uncertainty of the linear, nonlinear and hybrid models are examined by Monte Carlo technique. The best preprocessing technique is the utilization of Johnson normality transform and seasonal standardization (respectively) (R 2  = 0.99; RMSE = 0.6; MAE = 0.38; RMSRE = 0.1, MARE = 0.06, UI = 0.03 &UII = 0.05). The results of uncertainty analysis indicated the good performance of proposed technique (d-factor = 0.27; 95PPU = 83.57). Moreover, the results of the proposed methodology in this study were compared with an evolutionary hybrid of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with firefly algorithm (ANFIS-FFA) demonstrating that the new hybrid methods outperformed ANFIS-FFA method. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, Francesco; Caracciolo, Domenico; Pumo, Dario; Francipane, Antonio; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

2015-04-01

Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different "in silico" experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the future scenarios 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. Land use changes (i.e., changes in the fraction of impervious area due to increasing urbanization) are explicitly simulated, while the reference hydrological responses are assessed by the spatially distributed, process-based hydrological model tRIBS, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator. Several scenarios have been created, describing hypothetical centuries with steady conditions, climate change conditions, land use change conditions and finally complex conditions involving both transient climatic modifications and gradual land use changes. A conceptual lumped model, the EHSM (EcoHydrological Streamflow Model) is calibrated for the above mentioned scenarios with regard to different time-windows. The calibrated parameters show high sensitivity to anthropic variations in land use and/or climatic variability. Land use changes are clearly visible from parameters evolution especially when steady climatic conditions are considered. When the increase in urbanization is coupled with rainfall reduction the ability to detect human interventions through the analysis of conceptual model parameters is weakened.

Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

PubMed

Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

2015-01-01

Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

The Importance of Measuring Strength-of-Preference Scores for Health Care Options in Preference-Sensitive Care

PubMed Central

Crump, R. Trafford; Llewellyn-Thomas, Hilary A.

2012-01-01

Objective The objective was to determine whether a paired-comparison/leaning scale method: a) could feasibly be used to elicit strength-of-preference scores for elective health care options in large community-based survey settings; and b) could reveal preferential sub-groups that would have been overlooked if only a categorical-response format had been used. Study Design Medicare beneficiaries in four different regions of the United States were interviewed in person. Participants considered 8 clinical scenarios, each with 2 to 3 different health care options. For each scenario, participants categorically selected their favored option, then indicated how strongly they favored that option relative to the alternative on a paired-comparison bi-directional Leaning Scale. Results Two hundred and two participants were interviewed. For 7 of the 8 scenarios, a clear majority (> 50%) indicated that, overall, they categorically favored one option over the alternative(s). However, the bi-directional strength-of-preference Leaning Scale scores revealed that, in 4 scenarios, for half of those participants, their preference for the favored option was actually “weak” or “neutral”. Conclusion Investigators aiming to assess population-wide preferential attitudes towards different elective health care scenarios should consider gathering ordinal-level strength-of-preference scores and could feasibly use the paired-comparison/bi-directional Leaning Scale to do so. PMID:22494579

Wives without husbands: gendered vulnerability to sexually transmitted infections among previously married women in India.

PubMed

Walters, Kimberly; Dandona, Rakhi; Walters, Lawrence C; Lakshmi, Vemu; Dandona, Lalit; Schneider, John A

2012-01-01

Using population-based and family structural data from a high HIV-prevalence district of Southern India, this paper considers four suggested social scenarios used to explain the positive correlation between HIV prevalence and previously married status among Indian women: (1) infection from and then bereavement of an infected husband; (2) abandonment after husbands learn of their wives' HIV status; (3) economic instability after becoming previously married, leading women to seek financial support through male partners; and (4) the social status of being previously married exposing women to sexual harassment and predation. By also considering seroprevalence of two other common sexually transmitted infections (STIs), herpes and syphilis, in a combined variable with HIV, we limit the likelihood of the first two scenarios accounting for the greater part of this correlation. Through a nuanced analysis of household residences patterns (family structure), standard of living, and education, we also limit the probability that scenario three explains a greater portion of the correlation. Scenario four emerges as the most likely explanation for this correlation, recognizing that other scenarios are also possible. Further, the interdisciplinary literature on the social position of previously married women in India strongly supports the suggestion that, as a population, previously married women are sexually vulnerable in India. Previously married status as an STI risk factor requires further biosocial research and warrants concentrated public health attention.

Impacts of Combined Cooling, Heating and Power Systems, and Rainwater Harvesting on Water Demand, Carbon Dioxide, and NOx Emissions for Atlanta.

PubMed

James, Jean-Ann; Sung, Sangwoo; Jeong, Hyunju; Broesicke, Osvaldo A; French, Steven P; Li, Duo; Crittenden, John C

2018-01-02

The purpose of this study is to explore the potential water, CO 2 and NO x emission, and cost savings that the deployment of decentralized water and energy technologies within two urban growth scenarios can achieve. We assess the effectiveness of urban growth, technological, and political strategies to reduce these burdens in the 13-county Atlanta metropolitan region. The urban growth between 2005 and 2030 was modeled for a business as usual (BAU) scenario and a more compact growth (MCG) scenario. We considered combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) systems using microturbines for our decentralized energy technology and rooftop rainwater harvesting and low flow fixtures for the decentralized water technologies. Decentralized water and energy technologies had more of an impact in reducing the CO 2 and NO x emissions and water withdrawal and consumption than an MCG growth scenario (which does not consider energy for transit). Decentralized energy can reduce the CO 2 and NO x emissions by 8% and 63%, respectively. Decentralized energy and water technologies can reduce the water withdrawal and consumption in the MCG scenario by 49% and 50% respectively. Installing CCHP systems on both the existing and new building stocks with a net metering policy could reduce the CO 2 , NO x , and water consumption by 50%, 90%, and 75% respectively.

Children's exposure to harmful elements in toys and low-cost jewelry: characterizing risks and developing a comprehensive approach.

PubMed

Guney, Mert; Zagury, Gerald J

2014-04-30

Contamination problem in jewelry and toys and children's exposure possibility have been previously demonstrated. For this study, risk from oral exposure has been characterized for highly contaminated metallic toys and jewelry ((MJ), n=16) considering three scenarios. Total and bioaccessible concentrations of Cd, Cu, Ni, and Pb were high in selected MJ. First scenario (ingestion of parts or pieces) caused unacceptable risk for eight items for Cd, Ni, and/or Pb (hazard index (HI)>1, up to 75, 5.8, and 43, respectively). HI for ingestion of scraped-off material scenario was always <1. Finally, saliva mobilization scenario caused HI>1 in three samples (two for Cd, one for Ni). Risk characterization identified different potentially hazardous items compared to United States, Canadian, and European Union approaches. A comprehensive approach was also developed to deal with complexity and drawbacks caused by various toy/jewelry definitions, test methods, exposure scenarios, and elements considered in different regulatory approaches. It includes bioaccessible limits for eight priority elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Sb). Research is recommended on metals bioaccessibility determination in toys/jewelry, in vitro bioaccessibility test development, estimation of material ingestion rates and frequency, presence of hexavalent Cr and organic Sn, and assessment of prolonged exposure to MJ. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Hydropower Generation Potential of a Dam Using Optimization Techniques: Application to Doma Dam, Nassarawa, in North Central Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salami, Adebayo Wahab; Sule, Bolaji Fatai; Adunkpe, Tope Lacroix; Ayanshola, Ayanniyi Mufutau; Bilewu, Solomon Olakunle

2017-03-01

Optimization models have been developed to maximize annual energy generation from the Doma dam, subject to the constraint of releases for irrigation, ecological purposes, the water supply, the maximum yield from the reservoir and reservoir storage. The model was solved with LINGO software for various mean annual inflow exceedence probabilities. Two scenarios of hydropower retrofitting were considered. Scenario 1, with the reservoir inflows at 50%, 75%, and 90% probabilities of exceedence, gives the total annual hydropower as 0.531 MW, 0.450 MW and 0.291 MW, respectively. The corresponding values for scenario 2 were 0.615 MW, 0.507 MW, and 0.346 MW respectively. The study also considered increasing the reservoir's live storage to 32.63Mm3 by taking part of the flood storage so that the maximum draft increases to 7 Mm3. With this upper limit of storage and draft with reservoir inflows of 50%, 75% and 90% probabilities of exceedence, the hydropower generated increased to 0.609 MW, 0.540 MW, and 0.347 MW respectively for the scenario 1 arrangement, while those of scenario 2 increased to 0.699 MW, 0.579MW and 0.406 MW respectively. The results indicate that the Doma Dam is suitable for the production of hydroelectric power and that its generation potential is between 0.61 MW and 0.70 MW.

Economic and environmental evaluation model for selecting the optimum design of green roof systems in elementary schools.

PubMed

Kim, JiMin; Hong, TaeHoon; Koo, Choong-Wan

2012-08-07

Green-roof systems offer various benefits to man and nature, such as establishing ecological environments, improving landscape and air quality, and offering pleasant living environments. This study aimed to develop an optimal-scenario selection model that considers both the economic and the environmental effect in applying GRSs to educational facilities. The following process was carried out: (i) 15 GRSs scenarios were established by combining three soil and five plant types and (ii) the results of the life cycle CO(2) analyses with the GRSs scenarios were converted to an economic value using certified emission reductions (CERs) carbon credits. Life cycle cost (LCC) analyses were performed based on these results. The results showed that when considering only the currently realized economic value, the conventional roof system is superior to the GRSs. However, the LCC analysis that included the environmental value, revealed that compared to the conventional roof system, the following six GRSs scenarios are superior (cost reduction; reduction ratio; in descending order): scenarios 13 ($195,229; 11.0%), 3 ($188,178; 10.6%), 8 ($181,558; 10.3%), 12 ($130,464; 7.4%), 2 ($124,566; 7.0%), and 7 ($113,931; 6.4%). Although the effect is relatively small in terms of cost reduction, environmental value attributes cannot be ignored in terms of the reduction ratio.

Wives without husbands: Gendered vulnerability to sexually transmitted infections among previously married women in India

PubMed Central

Walters, Kimberly; Dandona, Rakhi; Walters, Lawrence C.; Dandona, Lalit; Lakshmi, Vemu; Schneider, John A.

2013-01-01

Using population-based and family structural data from a high HIV-prevalence district of southern India, this paper considers four suggested social scenarios used to explain the positive correlation between HIV prevalence and previously married status among Indian women: I) infection from and then bereavement of an infected husband; II) abandonment after husbands learn of their wives’ HIV status; III) economic instability after becoming previously married, leading women to seek financial support through male partners; IV) the social status of being previously married exposing women to sexual harassment and predation. By also considering seroprevalence of two other common sexually transmitted infections (STI), herpes and syphilis, in a combined variable with HIV, we limit the likelihood of the first two scenarios accounting for the greater part of this correlation. Through a nuanced analysis of household residences patterns (family structure), standard of living and education, we also limit the probability that scenario three explains a greater portion of the correlation. Scenario four emerges as the most likely explanation for this correlation, recognizing that other scenarios are also possible. Further, the interdisciplinary literature on the social position of previously married women in India strongly supports the suggestion that, as a population, previously married women are sexually vulnerable in India. Previously married status as an STI risk factor requires further biosocial research and warrants concentrated public health attention. PMID:22519844

A Theoretical Math Model for Projecting AIS3+ Thoracic Injury for Belted Occupants in Frontal Impact.

PubMed

Laituri, Tony R; Sullivan, Donald; Sullivan, Kaye; Prasad, Priya

2004-11-01

A theoretical math model was created to assess the net effect of aging populations versus evolving system designs from the standpoint of thoracic injury potential. The model was used to project the next twenty-five years of thoracic injuries in Canada. The choice of Canada was topical because rulemaking for CMVSS 208 has been proposed recently. The study was limited to properly-belted, front-outboard, adult occupants in 11-1 o'clock frontal crashes. Moreover, only AIS3+ thoracic injury potential was considered. The research consisted of four steps. First, sub-models were developed and integrated. The sub-models were made for numerous real-world effects including population growth, crash involvement, fleet penetration of various systems (via system introduction, vehicle production, and vehicle attrition), and attendant injury risk estimation. Second, existing NASS data were used to estimate the number of AIS3+ chest-injured drivers in Canada in 2001. This served as data for model validation. Third, the projection model was correlated favorably with the 2001 field estimate. Finally, for the scenario that 2004-2030 model-year systems would perform like 2000-2003 model-year systems, a projection was made to estimate the long-term effect of eliminating designs that would not comply with the proposed CMVSS 208. The 2006-2030-projection result for this scenario: 764 occupants would benefit from the proposed regulation. This projection was considered to be conservative because future innovation was not considered, and, to date, the fleet's average chest deflections have been decreasing. The model also predicted that, through 2016, the effect of improving system performance would be more influential than the population-aging effect; thereafter, the population-aging effect would somewhat counteract the effect of improving system performance. This theoretical math model can provide insights for both designers and rule makers.

LCA of waste prevention activities: a case study for drinking water in Italy.

PubMed

Nessi, Simone; Rigamonti, Lucia; Grosso, Mario

2012-10-15

The strategic relevance of waste prevention has considerably increased worldwide during recent years, such that the current European legislation requires the preparation of national waste prevention programmes in which reduction objectives and measures are identified. In such a context, it is possible to recognise how, in order to correctly evaluate the environmental consequences of a prevention activity, a life cycle perspective should be employed. This allows us to go beyond the simple reduction of the generated waste which, alone, does not automatically imply achieving better overall environmental performance, especially when this reduction is not pursued through the simple reduction of consumption. In this study, the energetic and environmental performance of two waste prevention activities considered particularly meaningful for the Italian context were evaluated using life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. The two activities were the utilisation of public network water (two scenarios) and of refillable bottled water (two scenarios) for drinking purposes, instead of one-way bottled water (three scenarios). The energy demand and specific potential impacts of the four waste prevention scenarios and of the three baseline scenarios were compared with the aim of evaluating whether, and under what conditions, the analysed prevention activities are actually associated with overall energetic and environmental benefits. In typical conditions, the use of public network water directly from the tap results in the best scenario, while if water is withdrawn from public fountains, its further transportation by private car can involve significant impacts. The use of refillable PET bottled water seems the preferable scenario for packaged water consumption, if refillable bottles are transported to local distributors along the same (or a lower) distance as one-way bottles to retailers. The use of refillable glass bottled water is preferable to one-way bottled water only if a distance beneath 150 km separates bottling plants from local distributors and retailers (except for eutrophication indicator which is always slightly worse). To reduce waste generation and to achieve meaningful potential savings of natural resources, energy and greenhouse gas emissions, a reduction in one-way bottled water consumption in Italy is recommended in favour of the use of public network water and of the establishment of short distance-PET bottles based refilling systems. The development of closed loop recycling of one-way PET bottles, and especially the reduction of the distance along which one-way bottled water is transported, are also important. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

2005-10-01

The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processesmore » will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.« less

Projected gains and losses of wildlife habitat from bioenergy-induced landscape change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tarr, Nathan M.; Rubino, Matthew J.; Costanza, Jennifer K.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.; Abt, Robert C.

2016-01-01

Domestic and foreign renewable energy targets and financial incentives have increased demand for woody biomass and bioenergy in the southeastern United States. This demand is expected to be met through purpose-grown agricultural bioenergy crops, short-rotation tree plantations, thinning and harvest of planted and natural forests, and forest harvest residues. With results from a forest economics model, spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation models, and species–habitat models, we projected change in habitat amount for 16 wildlife species caused by meeting a renewable fuel target and expected demand for wood pellets in North Carolina, USA. We projected changes over 40 years under a baseline ‘business-as-usual’ scenario without bioenergy production and five scenarios with unique feedstock portfolios. Bioenergy demand had potential to influence trends in habitat availability for some species in our study area. We found variation in impacts among species, and no scenario was the ‘best’ or ‘worst’ across all species. Our models projected that shrub-associated species would gain habitat under some scenarios because of increases in the amount of regenerating forests on the landscape, while species restricted to mature forests would lose habitat. Some forest species could also lose habitat from the conversion of forests on marginal soils to purpose-grown feedstocks. The conversion of agricultural lands on marginal soils to purpose-grown feedstocks increased habitat losses for one species with strong associations with pasture, which is being lost to urbanization in our study region. Our results indicate that landscape-scale impacts on wildlife habitat will vary among species and depend upon the bioenergy feedstock portfolio. Therefore, decisions about bioenergy and wildlife will likely involve trade-offs among wildlife species, and the choice of focal species is likely to affect the results of landscape-scale assessments. We offer general principals to consider when crafting lists of focal species for bioenergy impact assessments at the landscape scale.

Assessment of the impact of oxidation processes on indoor air pollution using the new time-resolved INCA-Indoor model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendez, Maxence; Blond, Nadège; Blondeau, Patrice; Schoemaecker, Coralie; Hauglustaine, Didier A.

2015-12-01

INCA-Indoor, a new indoor air quality (IAQ) model, has been developed to simulate the concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxidants considering indoor air specific processes such as: emission, ventilation, surface interactions (sorption, deposition, uptake). Based on the detailed version of SAPRC-07 chemical mechanism, INCA-Indoor is able to analyze the contribution of the production and loss pathways of key chemical species (VOCs, oxidants, radical species). The potential of this model has been tested through three complementary analyses: a comparison with the most detailed IAQ model found in the literature, focusing on oxidant species; realistic scenarios covering a large range of conditions, involving variable OH sources like HONO; and the investigation of alkenes ozonolysis under a large range of indoor conditions that can increase OH and HO2 concentrations. Simulations have been run changing nitrous acid (HONO) concentrations, NOx levels, photolysis rates and ventilation rates, showing that HONO can be the main source of indoor OH. Cleaning events using products containing D-limonene have been simulated at different periods of the day. These scenarios show that HOX concentrations can significantly increase in specific conditions. An assessment of the impact of indoor chemistry on the potential formation of secondary species such as formaldehyde (HCHO) and acetaldehyde (CH3CHO) has been carried out under various room configuration scenarios and a study of the HOx budget for different realistic scenarios has been performed. It has been shown that, under the simulation conditions, formaldehyde can be affected by oxidant concentrations via chemical production which can account for more than 10% of the total production, representing 6.5 ppb/h. On the other hand, acetaldehyde production is affected more by oxidation processes. When the photolysis rates are high, chemical processes are responsible for about 50% of the total production of acetaldehyde (9 ppb/h).

Comparative Analysis of the Possibility to Use Urban Organic Waste for Compost or Biogas Productions. Application to Rosario City, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piacentini, Rubén D.; Vega, Marcelo

2017-10-01

The city waste is one of the main urban problems to be solved, since they generate large impacts on the environment, like use of land, contamination of the soil, water and air, and human diseases, among others. In Rosario city, placed in the Argentina Humid Pampa and having about 1 million inhabitants, the Municipality is developing different strategies in order to reduce the waste impact (295 000 Tons in 2016). One of the most important actions was the construction of the Bella Vista compost plant in 2012 (within the largest in South America). In the present work we analysed the possibility to use urban organic waste (that for Rosario city represents about 58% of the total waste in the last years) for: a) compost production and b) biogas production, with compost as a by-product. We determined the produced compost and biogas and the corresponding greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, considering three possible scenarios: A reference scenario (Sr ) where 24 100 Tons of urban solid waste per year is transported from the city houses and buildings to a transfer landfill and then to the a final disposal landfill; a scenario number one (S1 ) in which the same fraction of waste is transported to the Compost plant and transformed to compost and a scenario number two (S2 ) where the same quantity of waste is used for the production of biogas (and compost). Applying the IPCC 2006 Model, we compare the results of the annual GHG emissions, in order to select the best alternative: to expand the Compost plant or to build a Biogas (plus compost) plant. We also discussed the extension of the present analysis to the situation in which all the capability of the Compost plant (25% of the 2016 waste production of the city) is used and the impact these plants are having for a better quality of life of persons involved in the informal waste activity.

Alternative futures of proactive tools for a citizen's own wellbeing.

PubMed

Meristö, Tarja; Tuohimaa, Hanna; Leppimäki, Sami; Laitinen, Jukka

2009-01-01

The aim of this paper is to create the basis for a vision of an empowered citizen who can control his/her life, especially in relation to health and personal wellbeing with the use of new ICT-tools. The methods used in the study are based on futures studies, especially on scenario methodology. Alternative future paths, i.e. scenarios are constructed using the scenario filter model that we have developed, with market, technology and society perspectives. Scenarios not resulting in the vision are described in what if - analysis as well. The scenarios are combined with Viherä's model on citizen's skills, access and motivation to use new ICT-tools. The concept COPER is targeted to different user groups with an adaptable user interface and its development is user centered. We will consider the effects and the appropriate elements of COPER in every scenario, as well as the possibilities and challenges nursing will confront. As a result we will gain information of the characteristic of COPER that advance the vision. For the future development of COPER the alternative scenarios give the basis for flexibility planning, too.

Prevention of cardiorenal syndromes.

PubMed

McCullough, Peter A

2010-01-01

The cardiorenal syndromes (CRS) are composed of five recently defined syndromes which represent common clinical scenarios in which both the heart and the kidney are involved in a bidirectional injury process leading to dysfunction of both organs. Common to each subtype are multiple complex pathogenic factors, a precipitous decline in function and a progressive course. Most pathways that lead to CRS involve acute injury to organs which manifest evidence of chronic disease, suggesting reduced ability to sustain damage, maintain vital functions, and facilitate recovery. Prevention of CRS is an ideal clinical goal, because once initiated, CRS cannot be readily aborted, are not completely reversible, and are associated with serious consequences including hospitalization, complicated procedures, need for renal replacement therapy, and death. Principles of prevention include identification and amelioration of precipitating factors, optimal management of both chronic heart and kidney diseases, and future use of multimodality therapies for end-organ protection at the time of systemic injury. This paper will review the core concepts of prevention of CRS with practical applications to be considered in today's practice. 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Some inconvenient truths about biosignatures involving two chemical species on Earth-like exoplanets

PubMed Central

Rein, Hanno; Fujii, Yuka; Spiegel, David S.

2014-01-01

The detection of strong thermochemical disequilibrium in the atmosphere of an extrasolar planet is thought to be a potential biosignature. In this article we present a previously unidentified kind of false positive that can mimic a disequilibrium or any other biosignature that involves two chemical species. We consider a scenario where the exoplanet hosts a moon that has its own atmosphere and neither of the atmospheres is in chemical disequilibrium. Our results show that the integrated spectrum of the planet and the moon closely resembles that of a single object in strong chemical disequilibrium. We derive a firm limit on the maximum spectral resolution that can be obtained for both directly imaged and transiting planets. The spectral resolution of even idealized space-based spectrographs that might be achievable in the next several decades is in general insufficient to break the degeneracy. Both chemical species can only be definitively confirmed in the same object if absorption features of both chemicals can be unambiguously identified and their combined depth exceeds 100%. PMID:24778224

Methods for nuclear air-cleaning-system accident-consequence assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrae, R.W.; Bolstad, J.W.; Gregory, W.S.

1982-01-01

This paper describes a multilaboratory research program that is directed toward addressing many questions that analysts face when performing air cleaning accident consequence assessments. The program involves developing analytical tools and supportive experimental data that will be useful in making more realistic assessments of accident source terms within and up to the atmospheric boundaries of nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The types of accidents considered in this study includes fires, explosions, spills, tornadoes, criticalities, and equipment failures. The main focus of the program is developing an accident analysis handbook (AAH). We will describe the contents of the AAH, which include descriptionsmore » of selected nuclear fuel cycle facilities, process unit operations, source-term development, and accident consequence analyses. Three computer codes designed to predict gas and material propagation through facility air cleaning systems are described. These computer codes address accidents involving fires (FIRAC), explosions (EXPAC), and tornadoes (TORAC). The handbook relies on many illustrative examples to show the analyst how to approach accident consequence assessments. We will use the FIRAC code and a hypothetical fire scenario to illustrate the accident analysis capability.« less

The use of engineering design scenarios to assess student knowledge of global, societal, economic, and environmental contexts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, Ann F.; Hynes, Morgan M.; Johnson, Amy M.; Carberry, Adam R.

2016-07-01

Product archaeology as an educational approach asks engineering students to consider and explore the broader societal and global impacts of a product's manufacturing, distribution, use, and disposal on people, economics, and the environment. This study examined the impact of product archaeology in a project-based engineering design course on student attitudes and perceptions about engineering and abilities to extend and refine knowledge about broader contexts. Two design scenarios were created: one related to dental hygiene and one related to vaccination delivery. Design scenarios were used to (1) assess knowledge of broader contexts, and (2) test variability of student responses across different contextual situations. Results from pre- to post-surveying revealed improved student perceptions of knowledge of broader contexts. Significant differences were observed between the two design scenarios. The findings support the assumption that different design scenarios elicit consideration of different contexts and design scenarios can be constructed to target specific contextual considerations.

Assessment of future impacts of potential climate change scenarios on aquifer recharge in continental Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Alcalá, Francisco J.

2017-04-01

This research proposes and applies a method to assess potential impacts of future climatic scenarios on aquifer rainfall recharge in wide and varied regions. The continental Spain territory was selected to show the application. The method requires to generate future series of climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) in the system to simulate them within a previously calibrated hydrological model for the historical data. In a previous work, Alcalá and Custodio (2014) used the atmospheric chloride mass balance (CMB) method for the spatial evaluation of average aquifer recharge by rainfall over the whole of continental Spain, by assuming long-term steady conditions of the balance variables. The distributed average CMB variables necessary to calculate recharge were estimated from available variable-length data series of variable quality and spatial coverage. The CMB variables were regionalized by ordinary kriging at the same 4976 nodes of a 10 km x 10 km grid. Two main sources of uncertainty affecting recharge estimates (given by the coefficient of variation, CV), induced by the inherent natural variability of the variables and from mapping were segregated. Based on these stationary results we define a simple empirical rainfall-recharge model. We consider that spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and temperature are the most important climatic feature and variables influencing potential aquifer recharge in natural regime. Changes in these variables can be important in the assessment of future potential impacts of climatic scenarios over spatiotemporal renewable groundwater resource. For instance, if temperature increases, actual evapotranspitration (EA) will increases reducing the available water for others groundwater balance components, including the recharge. For this reason, instead of defining an infiltration rate coefficient that relates precipitation (P) and recharge we propose to define a transformation function that allows estimating the spatial distribution of recharge (both average value and its uncertainty) from the difference in P and EA in each area. A complete analysis of potential short-term (2016-2045) future climate scenarios in continental Spain has been performed by considering different sources of uncertainty. It is based on the historical climatic data for the period 1976-2005 and the climatic models simulations (for the control [1976-2005] and future scenarios [2016-2045]) performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The most pessimistic emission scenario (RCP8.5) has been considered. For the RCP8.5 scenario we have analyzed the time series generated by simulating with 5 Regional Climatic models (CCLM4-8-17, RCA4, HIRHAM5, RACMO22E, and WRF331F) nested to 4 different General Circulation Models (GCMs). Two different conceptual approaches (bias correction and delta change techniques) have been applied to generate potential future climate scenarios from these data. Different ensembles of obtained time series have been proposed to obtain more representative scenarios by considering all the simulations or only those providing better approximations to the historical statistics based on a multicriteria analysis. This was a step to analyze future potential impacts on the aquifer recharge by simulating them within a rainfall-recharge model. This research has been supported by the CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R (MINECO) and the PMAFI/06/14 (UCAM) projects.

Life cycle assessment of a packaging waste recycling system in Portugal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ferreira, S.; Cabral, M.; Cruz, N.F. da, E-mail: nunocruz@tecnico.ulisboa.pt

Highlights: • We modeled a real packaging waste recycling system. • The analysis was performed using the life cycle assessment methodology. • The 2010 situation was compared with scenarios where the materials were not recycled. • The “Baseline” scenario seems to be more beneficial to the environment. - Abstract: Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been used to assess the environmental impacts associated with an activity or product life cycle. It has also been applied to assess the environmental performance related to waste management activities. This study analyses the packaging waste management system of a local public authority in Portugal. Themore » operations of selective and refuse collection, sorting, recycling, landfilling and incineration of packaging waste were considered. The packaging waste management system in operation in 2010, which we called “Baseline” scenario, was compared with two hypothetical scenarios where all the packaging waste that was selectively collected in 2010 would undergo the refuse collection system and would be sent directly to incineration (called “Incineration” scenario) or to landfill (“Landfill” scenario). Overall, the results show that the “Baseline” scenario is more environmentally sound than the hypothetical scenarios.« less

A hybrid solution approach for a multi-objective closed-loop logistics network under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehrbod, Mehrdad; Tu, Nan; Miao, Lixin

2015-06-01

The design of closed-loop logistics (forward and reverse logistics) has attracted growing attention with the stringent pressures of customer expectations, environmental concerns and economic factors. This paper considers a multi-product, multi-period and multi-objective closed-loop logistics network model with regard to facility expansion as a facility location-allocation problem, which more closely approximates real-world conditions. A multi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming formulation is linearized by defining new variables and adding new constraints to the model. By considering the aforementioned model under uncertainty, this paper develops a hybrid solution approach by combining an interactive fuzzy goal programming approach and robust counterpart optimization based on three well-known robust counterpart optimization formulations. Finally, this paper compares the results of the three formulations using different test scenarios and parameter-sensitive analysis in terms of the quality of the final solution, CPU time, the level of conservatism, the degree of closeness to the ideal solution, the degree of balance involved in developing a compromise solution, and satisfaction degree.

Comparative techno-economic assessment and LCA of selected integrated sugarcane-based biorefineries.

PubMed

Gnansounou, Edgard; Vaskan, Pavel; Pachón, Elia Ruiz

2015-11-01

This work addresses the economic and environmental performance of integrated biorefineries based on sugarcane juice and residues. Four multiproduct scenarios were considered; two from sugar mills and the others from ethanol distilleries. They are integrated biorefineries producing first (1G) and second (2G) generation ethanol, sugar, molasses (for animal feed) and electricity in the context of Brazil. The scenarios were analysed and compared using techno-economic value-based approach and LCA methodology. The results show that the best economic configuration is provided by a scenario with largest ethanol production while the best environmental performance is presented by a scenario with full integration sugar - 1G2G ethanol production. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fire suppression as a thermal implosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novozhilov, Vasily

2017-01-01

The present paper discusses the possibility of the thermal implosion scenario. This process would be a reverse of the well known thermal explosion (autoignition) phenomenon. The mechanism for thermal implosion scenario is proposed which involves quick suppression of the turbulent diffusion flame. Classical concept of the thermal explosion is discussed first. Then a possible scenario for the reverse process (thermal implosion) is discussed and illustrated by a relevant mathematical model. Based on the arguments presented in the paper, thermal implosion may be observed as an unstable equilibrium point on the generalized Semenov diagram for turbulent flame, however this hypothesis requires ultimate experimental confirmation.

Impacts of seawater rise on seawater intrusion in the Nile Delta Aquifer, Egypt.

PubMed

Sefelnasr, Ahmed; Sherif, Mohsen

2014-01-01

Several investigations have recently considered the possible impacts of climate change and seawater level rise on seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. All have revealed the severity of the problem and the significance of the landward movement of the dispersion zone under the condition of seawater level rise. Most of the studies did not consider the possible effects of the seawater rise on the inland movement of the shoreline and the associate changes in the boundary conditions at the seaside and the domain geometry. Such effects become more evident in flat, low land, coastal alluvial plans where large areas might be submerged with seawater under a relatively small increase in the seawater level. None of the studies combined the effect of increased groundwater pumping, due to the possible decline in precipitation and shortage in surface water resources, with the expected landward shift of the shore line. In this article, the possible effects of seawater level rise in the Mediterranean Sea on the seawater intrusion problem in the Nile Delta Aquifer are investigated using FEFLOW. The simulations are conducted in horizontal view while considering the effect of the shoreline landward shift using digital elevation models. In addition to the basic run (current conditions), six different scenarios are considered. Scenarios one, two, and three assume a 0.5 m seawater rise while the total pumping is reduced by 50%, maintained as per the current conditions and doubled, respectively. Scenarios four, five, and six assume a 1.0 m seawater rise and the total pumping is changed as in the first three scenarios. The shoreline is moved to account for the seawater rise and hence the study domain and the seaside boundary are modified accordingly. It is concluded that, large areas in the coastal zone of the Nile Delta will be submerged by seawater and the coast line will shift landward by several kilometers in the eastern and western sides of the Delta. Scenario six represents the worst case under which the volume of freshwater will be reduced to about 513 km(3) (billion m(3) ). © 2013, National Ground Water Association.

Surfing parameter hyperspaces under climate change scenarios to design future rice ideotypes.

PubMed

Paleari, Livia; Movedi, Ermes; Cappelli, Giovanni; Wilson, Lloyd T; Confalonieri, Roberto

2017-11-01

Growing food crops to meet global demand and the search for more sustainable cropping systems are increasing the need for new cultivars in key production areas. This study presents the identification of rice traits putatively producing the largest yield benefits in five areas that markedly differ in terms of environmental conditions in the Philippines, India, China, Japan and Italy. The ecophysiological model WARM and sensitivity analysis techniques were used to evaluate phenotypic traits involved with light interception, photosynthetic efficiency, tolerance to abiotic stressors, resistance to fungal pathogens and grain quality. The analysis involved only model parameters that have a close relationship with phenotypic traits breeders are working on, to increase the in vivo feasibility of selected ideotypes. Current climate and future projections were considered, in the light of the resources required by breeding programs and of the role of weather variables in the identification of promising traits. Results suggest that breeding for traits involved with disease resistance, and tolerance to cold- and heat-induced spikelet sterility could provide benefits similar to those obtained from the improvement of traits involved with canopy structure and photosynthetic efficiency. In contrast, potential benefits deriving from improved grain quality traits are restricted by weather variability and markedly affected by G × E interactions. For this reason, district-specific ideotypes were identified using a new index accounting for both their productivity and feasibility. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Autogenerator-based modelling framework for development of strategic games simulations: rational pigs game extended.

PubMed

Fabac, Robert; Radošević, Danijel; Magdalenić, Ivan

2014-01-01

When considering strategic games from the conceptual perspective that focuses on the questions of participants' decision-making rationality, the very issues of modelling and simulation are rarely discussed. The well-known Rational Pigs matrix game has been relatively intensively analyzed in terms of reassessment of the logic of two players involved in asymmetric situations as gluttons that differ significantly by their attributes. This paper presents a successful attempt of using autogenerator for creating the framework of the game, including the predefined scenarios and corresponding payoffs. Autogenerator offers flexibility concerning the specification of game parameters, which consist of variations in the number of simultaneous players and their features and game objects and their attributes as well as some general game characteristics. In the proposed approach the model of autogenerator was upgraded so as to enable program specification updates. For the purpose of treatment of more complex strategic scenarios, we created the Rational Pigs Game Extended (RPGE), in which the introduction of a third glutton entails significant structural changes. In addition, due to the existence of particular attributes of the new player, "the tramp," one equilibrium point from the original game is destabilized which has an influence on the decision-making of rational players.

Recharge Data Package for Hanford Single-Shell Tank Waste Management Areas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fayer, Michael J.; Keller, Jason M.

2007-09-24

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) assists CH2M HILL Hanford Group, Inc., in its preparation of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation report. One of the PNNL tasks is to use existing information to estimate recharge rates for past and current conditions as well as future scenarios involving cleanup and closure of tank farms. The existing information includes recharge-relevant data collected during activities associated with a host of projects, including those of RCRA, the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), the CH2M HILL Tank Farm Vadose Zone Project, and the PNNL Remediation and Closure Science Project.more » As new information is published, the report contents can be updated. The objective of this data package was to use published data to provide recharge estimates for the scenarios being considered in the RCRA Facility Investigation. Recharge rates were estimated for areas that remain natural and undisturbed, areas where the vegetation has been disturbed, areas where both the vegetation and the soil have been disturbed, and areas that are engineered (e.g., surface barrier). The recharge estimates supplement the estimates provided by PNNL researchers in 2006 for the Hanford Site using additional field measurements and model analysis using weather data through 2006.« less

Autogenerator-Based Modelling Framework for Development of Strategic Games Simulations: Rational Pigs Game Extended

PubMed Central

Magdalenić, Ivan

2014-01-01

When considering strategic games from the conceptual perspective that focuses on the questions of participants' decision-making rationality, the very issues of modelling and simulation are rarely discussed. The well-known Rational Pigs matrix game has been relatively intensively analyzed in terms of reassessment of the logic of two players involved in asymmetric situations as gluttons that differ significantly by their attributes. This paper presents a successful attempt of using autogenerator for creating the framework of the game, including the predefined scenarios and corresponding payoffs. Autogenerator offers flexibility concerning the specification of game parameters, which consist of variations in the number of simultaneous players and their features and game objects and their attributes as well as some general game characteristics. In the proposed approach the model of autogenerator was upgraded so as to enable program specification updates. For the purpose of treatment of more complex strategic scenarios, we created the Rational Pigs Game Extended (RPGE), in which the introduction of a third glutton entails significant structural changes. In addition, due to the existence of particular attributes of the new player, “the tramp,” one equilibrium point from the original game is destabilized which has an influence on the decision-making of rational players. PMID:25254228

A Fuzzy Robust Optimization Model for Waste Allocation Planning Under Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Xu, Ye; Huang, Guohe; Xu, Ling

2014-01-01

Abstract In this study, a fuzzy robust optimization (FRO) model was developed for supporting municipal solid waste management under uncertainty. The Development Zone of the City of Dalian, China, was used as a study case for demonstration. Comparing with traditional fuzzy models, the FRO model made improvement by considering the minimization of the weighted summation among the expected objective values, the differences between two extreme possible objective values, and the penalty of the constraints violation as the objective function, instead of relying purely on the minimization of expected value. Such an improvement leads to enhanced system reliability and the model becomes especially useful when multiple types of uncertainties and complexities are involved in the management system. Through a case study, the applicability of the FRO model was successfully demonstrated. Solutions under three future planning scenarios were provided by the FRO model, including (1) priority on economic development, (2) priority on environmental protection, and (3) balanced consideration for both. The balanced scenario solution was recommended for decision makers, since it respected both system economy and reliability. The model proved valuable in providing a comprehensive profile about the studied system and helping decision makers gain an in-depth insight into system complexity and select cost-effective management strategies. PMID:25317037

Reactive power planning under high penetration of wind energy using Benders decomposition

DOE PAGES

Xu, Yan; Wei, Yanli; Fang, Xin; ...

2015-11-05

This study addresses the optimal allocation of reactive power volt-ampere reactive (VAR) sources under the paradigm of high penetration of wind energy. Reactive power planning (RPP) in this particular condition involves a high level of uncertainty because of wind power characteristic. To properly model wind generation uncertainty, a multi-scenario framework optimal power flow that considers the voltage stability constraint under the worst wind scenario and transmission N 1 contingency is developed. The objective of RPP in this study is to minimise the total cost including the VAR investment cost and the expected generation cost. Therefore RPP under this condition ismore » modelled as a two-stage stochastic programming problem to optimise the VAR location and size in one stage, then to minimise the fuel cost in the other stage, and eventually, to find the global optimal RPP results iteratively. Benders decomposition is used to solve this model with an upper level problem (master problem) for VAR allocation optimisation and a lower problem (sub-problem) for generation cost minimisation. Impact of the potential reactive power support from doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG) is also analysed. Lastly, case studies on the IEEE 14-bus and 118-bus systems are provided to verify the proposed method.« less

A Fuzzy Robust Optimization Model for Waste Allocation Planning Under Uncertainty.

PubMed

Xu, Ye; Huang, Guohe; Xu, Ling

2014-10-01

In this study, a fuzzy robust optimization (FRO) model was developed for supporting municipal solid waste management under uncertainty. The Development Zone of the City of Dalian, China, was used as a study case for demonstration. Comparing with traditional fuzzy models, the FRO model made improvement by considering the minimization of the weighted summation among the expected objective values, the differences between two extreme possible objective values, and the penalty of the constraints violation as the objective function, instead of relying purely on the minimization of expected value. Such an improvement leads to enhanced system reliability and the model becomes especially useful when multiple types of uncertainties and complexities are involved in the management system. Through a case study, the applicability of the FRO model was successfully demonstrated. Solutions under three future planning scenarios were provided by the FRO model, including (1) priority on economic development, (2) priority on environmental protection, and (3) balanced consideration for both. The balanced scenario solution was recommended for decision makers, since it respected both system economy and reliability. The model proved valuable in providing a comprehensive profile about the studied system and helping decision makers gain an in-depth insight into system complexity and select cost-effective management strategies.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giugliano, Michele; Cernuschi, Stefano; Grosso, Mario, E-mail: mario.grosso@polimi.it

This paper reports the environmental results, integrated with those arising from mass and energy balances, of a research project on the comparative analysis of strategies for material and energy recovery from waste, funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research. The project, involving the cooperation of five University research groups, was devoted to the optimisation of material and energy recovery activities within integrated municipal solid waste (MSW) management systems. Four scenarios of separate collection (overall value of 35%, 50% without the collection of food waste, 50% including the collection of food waste, 65%) were defined for the implementationmore » of energetic, environmental and economic balances. Two sizes of integrated MSW management system (IWMS) were considered: a metropolitan area, with a gross MSW production of 750,000 t/year and an average province, with a gross MSW production of 150,000 t/year. The environmental analysis was conducted using Life Cycle Assessment methodology (LCA), for both material and energy recovery activities. In order to avoid allocation we have used the technique of the expansion of the system boundaries. This means taking into consideration the impact on the environment related to the waste management activities in comparison with the avoided impacts related to the saving of raw materials and primary energy. Under the hypotheses of the study, both for the large and for the small IWMS, the energetic and environmental benefits are higher than the energetic and environmental impacts for all the scenarios analysed in terms of all the indicators considered: the scenario with 50% separate collection in a drop-off scheme excluding food waste shows the most promising perspectives, mainly arising from the highest collection (and recycling) of all the packaging materials, which is the activity giving the biggest energetic and environmental benefits. Main conclusions of the study in the general field of the assessment of the environmental performance of any integrated waste management scheme address the importance of properly defining, beyond the design value assumed for the separate collection as a whole, also the yields of each material recovered; particular significance is finally related to the amount of residues deriving from material recovery activities, resulting on average in the order of 20% of the collected materials.« less

Development and Application of Future Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Management in Southwestern Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.; Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.

2015-12-01

Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change in the context of uncertainty. To provide such information, we developed climate scenarios, in form of narratives and quantitative information, of future climate change and its impacts in southwestern Colorado. This information was intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. The scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions among the ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal likelihood as another scenario. We quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. Here, we discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We also discuss the process by which these scenarios get used, and provide an assessment of their effectiveness and users' feedbacks that could inform the future development of these tools and processes. This research involvement and collaboration occurred, in part, as a result of the PACE Fellowship Program that is associated with NOAA Climate Program Office and the U.S. CLIVAR community.

Effect of pesticide fate parameters and their uncertainty on the selection of 'worst-case' scenarios of pesticide leaching to groundwater.

PubMed

Vanderborght, Jan; Tiktak, Aaldrik; Boesten, Jos J T I; Vereecken, Harry

2011-03-01

For the registration of pesticides in the European Union, model simulations for worst-case scenarios are used to demonstrate that leaching concentrations to groundwater do not exceed a critical threshold. A worst-case scenario is a combination of soil and climate properties for which predicted leaching concentrations are higher than a certain percentile of the spatial concentration distribution within a region. The derivation of scenarios is complicated by uncertainty about soil and pesticide fate parameters. As the ranking of climate and soil property combinations according to predicted leaching concentrations is different for different pesticides, the worst-case scenario for one pesticide may misrepresent the worst case for another pesticide, which leads to 'scenario uncertainty'. Pesticide fate parameter uncertainty led to higher concentrations in the higher percentiles of spatial concentration distributions, especially for distributions in smaller and more homogeneous regions. The effect of pesticide fate parameter uncertainty on the spatial concentration distribution was small when compared with the uncertainty of local concentration predictions and with the scenario uncertainty. Uncertainty in pesticide fate parameters and scenario uncertainty can be accounted for using higher percentiles of spatial concentration distributions and considering a range of pesticides for the scenario selection. Copyright © 2010 Society of Chemical Industry.

[Guidelines for budget impact analysis of health technologies in Brazil].

PubMed

Ferreira-Da-Silva, Andre Luis; Ribeiro, Rodrigo Antonini; Santos, Vânia Cristina Canuto; Elias, Flávia Tavares Silva; d'Oliveira, Alexandre Lemgruber Portugal; Polanczyk, Carisi Anne

2012-07-01

Budget impact analysis (BIA) provides operational financial forecasts to implement new technologies in healthcare systems. There were no previous specific recommendations to conduct such analyses in Brazil. This paper reviews BIA methods for health technologies and proposes BIA guidelines for the public and private Brazilian healthcare system. The following recommendations were made: adopt the budget administrator's perspective; use a timeframe of 1 to 5 years; compare reference and alternative scenarios; consider the technology's rate of incorporation; estimate the target population by either an epidemiological approach or measured demand; consider restrictions on technologies' indication or factors that increase the demand for them; consider direct and averted costs; do not adjust for inflation or discounts; preferably, integrate information on a spreadsheet; calculate the incremental budget impact between scenarios; and summarize information in a budget impact report.

Influence of nonlinear interactions on the development of instability in hydrodynamic wave systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Romanova, N. N.; Chkhetiani, O. G., E-mail: ochkheti@mx.iki.rssi.ru, E-mail: ochkheti@gmail.ru; Yakushkin, I. G.

2016-05-15

The problem of the development of shear instability in a three-layer medium simulating the flow of a stratified incompressible fluid is considered. The hydrodynamic equations are solved by expanding the Hamiltonian in a small parameter. The equations for three interacting waves, one of which is unstable, have been derived and solved numerically. The three-wave interaction is shown to stabilize the instability. Various regimes of the system’s dynamics, including the stochastic ones dependent on one of the invariants in the problem, can arise in this case. It is pointed out that the instability development scenario considered differs from the previously consideredmore » scenario of a different type, where the three-wave interaction does not stabilize the instability. The interaction of wave packets is considered briefly.« less

Modeling Sustainable Bioenergy Feedstock Production in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraxner, Florian; Leduc, Sylvain; Kindermann, Georg; Fuss, Sabine; Pietsch, Stephan; Lakyda, Ivan; Serrano Leon, Hernan; Shchepashchenko, Dmitry; Shvidenko, Anatoly

2016-04-01

Sustainability of bioenergy is often indicated by the neutrality of emissions at the conversion site while the feedstock production site is assumed to be carbon neutral. Recent research shows that sustainability of bioenergy systems starts with feedstock management. Even if sustainable forest management is applied, different management types can impact ecosystem services substantially. This study examines different sustainable forest management systems together with an optimal planning of green-field bioenergy plants in the Alps. Two models - the biophysical global forest model (G4M) and a techno-economic engineering model for optimizing renewable energy systems (BeWhere) are implemented. G4M is applied in a forward looking manner in order to provide information on the forest under different management scenarios: (1) managing the forest for maximizing the carbon sequestration; or (2) managing the forest for maximizing the harvestable wood amount for bioenergy production. The results from the forest modelling are then picked up by the engineering model BeWhere, which optimizes the bioenergy production in terms of energy demand (power and heat demand by population) and supply (wood harvesting potentials), feedstock harvesting and transport costs, the location and capacity of the bioenergy plant as well as the energy distribution logistics with respect to heat and electricity (e.g. considering existing grids for electricity or district heating etc.). First results highlight the importance of considering ecosystem services under different scenarios and in a geographically explicit manner. While aiming at producing the same amount of bioenergy under both forest management scenarios, it turns out that in scenario (1) a substantially larger area (distributed across the Alps) will need to be used for producing (and harvesting) the necessary amount of feedstock than under scenario (2). This result clearly shows that scenario (2) has to be seen as an "intensification scenario" under which more biomass feedstock can be produced and harvested, so that less area would be affected by harvesting and other management activities. Intensification through optimal forest management can lead to a substantial reduction of the area necessary for bioenergy feedstock supply. This in turn means that the "spared" area and the associated ecosystem services can be designated for conservation or other uses. This insight provides support to policy and decision makers in considering the optimal "mix" or "co-existence" of different ecosystem services and economic demands from a modern landscape management approach.

Studies of planning behavior of aircraft pilots in normal, abnormal, and emergency situations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johannsen, G.; Rouse, W. B.; Hillmann, K.

1981-01-01

A methodology for the study of human planning behavior in complex dynamic systems is presented and applied to the study of aircraft pilot behavior in normal, abnormal and emergency situations. The method measures the depth of planning, that is the level of detail employed with respect to a specific task, according to responses to a verbal questionnaire, and compares planning depth with variables relating to time, task criticality and the probability of increased task difficulty. In two series of experiments, depth of planning was measured on a five- or ten-point scale during various phases of flight in a HFB-320 simulator under normal flight conditions, abnormal scenarios involving temporary runway closure due to snow removal or temporary CAT-III conditions due to a dense fog, and emergency scenarios involving engine shut-down or hydraulic pressure loss. Results reveal a dichotomy between event-driven and time-driven planning, different effects of automation in abnormal and emergency scenarios and a low correlation between depth of planning and workload or flight performance.

Making User-Generated Content Communities Work in Higher Education - The Importance of Setting Incentives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vom Brocke, Jan; White, Cynthia; Walker, Ute; Vom Brocke, Christina

The concept of User-Generated Content (UGC) offers impressive potential for innovative learning and teaching scenarios in higher education. Examples like Wikipedia and Facebook illustrate the enormous effects of multiple users world-wide contributing to a pool of shared resources, such as videos and pictures and also lexicographical descriptions. Apart from single examples, however, the systematic use of these virtual technologies in higher education still needs further exploration. Only few examples display the successful application of UGC Communities at university scenarios. We argue that a major reason for this can be seen in the fact that the organizational dimension of setting up UGC Communities has widely been neglected so far. In particular, we indicate the need for incentive setting to actively involve students and achieve specific pedagogical objectives. We base our study on organizational theories and derive strategies for incentive setting that have been applied in a practical e-Learning scenario involving students from Germany and New Zealand.

Singlino resonant dark matter and 125 GeV Higgs boson in high-scale supersymmetry.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Kazuya; Kitahara, Teppei; Takimoto, Masahiro

2014-09-26

We consider a singlino dark matter (DM) scenario in a singlet extension model of the minimal supersymmetric standard model, which is the so-called the nearly minimal supersymmetric standard model. We find that with high-scale supersymmetry breaking the singlino can obtain a sizable radiative correction to the mass, which opens a window for the DM scenario with resonant annihilation via the exchange of the Higgs boson. We show that the current DM relic abundance and the Higgs boson mass can be explained simultaneously. This scenario can be fully probed by XENON1T.

How to deal with the Poisson-gamma model to forecast patients' recruitment in clinical trials when there are pauses in recruitment dynamic?

PubMed

Minois, Nathan; Savy, Stéphanie; Lauwers-Cances, Valérie; Andrieu, Sandrine; Savy, Nicolas

2017-03-01

Recruiting patients is a crucial step of a clinical trial. Estimation of the trial duration is a question of paramount interest. Most techniques are based on deterministic models and various ad hoc methods neglecting the variability in the recruitment process. To overpass this difficulty the so-called Poisson-gamma model has been introduced involving, for each centre, a recruitment process modelled by a Poisson process whose rate is assumed constant in time and gamma-distributed. The relevancy of this model has been widely investigated. In practice, rates are rarely constant in time, there are breaks in recruitment (for instance week-ends or holidays). Such information can be collected and included in a model considering piecewise constant rate functions yielding to an inhomogeneous Cox model. The estimation of the trial duration is much more difficult. Three strategies of computation of the expected trial duration are proposed considering all the breaks, considering only large breaks and without considering breaks. The bias of these estimations procedure are assessed by means of simulation studies considering three scenarios of breaks simulation. These strategies yield to estimations with a very small bias. Moreover, the strategy with the best performances in terms of prediction and with the smallest bias is the one which does not take into account of breaks. This result is important as, in practice, collecting breaks data is pretty hard to manage.

Comparison of teen and adult driver crash scenarios in a nationally representative sample of serious crashes.

PubMed

McDonald, Catherine C; Curry, Allison E; Kandadai, Venk; Sommers, Marilyn S; Winston, Flaura K

2014-11-01

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death and acquired disability during the first four decades of life. While teen drivers have the highest crash risk, few studies examine the similarities and differences in teen and adult driver crashes. We aimed to: (1) identify and compare the most frequent crash scenarios-integrated information on a vehicle's movement prior to crash, immediate pre-crash event, and crash configuration-for teen and adult drivers involved in serious crashes, and (2) for the most frequent scenarios, explore whether the distribution of driver critical errors differed for teens and adult drivers. We analyzed data from the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey, a nationally representative study of serious crashes conducted by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration from 2005 to 2007. Our sample included 642 16- to 19-year-old and 1167 35- to 54-year-old crash-involved drivers (weighted n=296,482 and 439,356, respectively) who made a critical error that led to their crash's critical pre-crash event (i.e., event that made the crash inevitable). We estimated prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to compare the relative frequency of crash scenarios and driver critical errors. The top five crash scenarios among teen drivers, accounting for 37.3% of their crashes, included: (1) going straight, other vehicle stopped, rear end; (2) stopped in traffic lane, turning left at intersection, turn into path of other vehicle; (3) negotiating curve, off right edge of road, right roadside departure; (4) going straight, off right edge of road, right roadside departure; and (5) stopped in lane, turning left at intersection, turn across path of other vehicle. The top five crash scenarios among adult drivers, accounting for 33.9% of their crashes, included the same scenarios as the teen drivers with the exception of scenario (3) and the addition of going straight, crossing over an intersection, and continuing on a straight path. For two scenarios ((1) and (3) above), teens were more likely than adults to make a critical decision error (e.g., traveling too fast for conditions). Our findings indicate that among those who make a driver critical error in a serious crash, there are few differences in the scenarios or critical driver errors for teen and adult drivers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multi-criteria spatial deprivation index to support health inequality analyses.

PubMed

Cabrera-Barona, Pablo; Murphy, Thomas; Kienberger, Stefan; Blaschke, Thomas

2015-03-20

Deprivation indices are useful measures to analyze health inequalities. There are several methods to construct these indices, however, few studies have used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Criteria methods to construct a deprivation index. Therefore, this study applies Multi-Criteria Evaluation to calculate weights for the indicators that make up the deprivation index and a GIS-based fuzzy approach to create different scenarios of this index is also implemented. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to obtain the weights for the indicators of the index. The Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) method using linguistic quantifiers is applied in order to create different deprivation scenarios. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and a Moran's I analysis are employed to explore spatial relationships between the different deprivation measures and two health factors: the distance to health services and the percentage of people that have never had a live birth. This last indicator was considered as the dependent variable in the GWR. The case study is Quito City, in Ecuador. The AHP-based deprivation index show medium and high levels of deprivation (0,511 to 1,000) in specific zones of the study area, even though most of the study area has low values of deprivation. OWA results show deprivation scenarios that can be evaluated considering the different attitudes of decision makers. GWR results indicate that the deprivation index and its OWA scenarios can be considered as local estimators for health related phenomena. Moran's I calculations demonstrate that several deprivation scenarios, in combination with the 'distance to health services' factor, could be explanatory variables to predict the percentage of people that have never had a live birth. The AHP-based deprivation index and the OWA deprivation scenarios developed in this study are Multi-Criteria instruments that can support the identification of highly deprived zones and can support health inequalities analysis in combination with different health factors. The methodology described in this study can be applied in other regions of the world to develop spatial deprivation indices based on Multi-Criteria analysis.

Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption and GHG emissions from 2010 to 2050. This growth is caused by increases in heating energy because the elderly generally spend more time at home, and cooling energy owing to rising temperatures. This study will be useful in the preparation of energy demand management policies and the establishment and attainability of GHG emissions reduction goals.

Evaluating taboo trade-offs in ecosystems services and human well-being

PubMed Central

Coulthard, Sarah; Cheung, William W. L.; Brown, Katrina; Abunge, Caroline; Galafassi, Diego; Peterson, Garry D.; McClanahan, Tim R.; Omukoto, Johnstone O.; Munyi, Lydiah

2015-01-01

Managing ecosystems for multiple ecosystem services and balancing the well-being of diverse stakeholders involves different kinds of trade-offs. Often trade-offs involve noneconomic and difficult-to-evaluate values, such as cultural identity, employment, the well-being of poor people, or particular species or ecosystem structures. Although trade-offs need to be considered for successful environmental management, they are often overlooked in favor of win-wins. Management and policy decisions demand approaches that can explicitly acknowledge and evaluate diverse trade-offs. We identified a diversity of apparent trade-offs in a small-scale tropical fishery when ecological simulations were integrated with participatory assessments of social–ecological system structure and stakeholders’ well-being. Despite an apparent win-win between conservation and profitability at the aggregate scale, food production, employment, and well-being of marginalized stakeholders were differentially influenced by management decisions leading to trade-offs. Some of these trade-offs were suggested to be “taboo” trade-offs between morally incommensurable values, such as between profits and the well-being of marginalized women. These were not previously recognized as management issues. Stakeholders explored and deliberated over trade-offs supported by an interactive “toy model” representing key system trade-offs, alongside qualitative narrative scenarios of the future. The concept of taboo trade-offs suggests that psychological bias and social sensitivity may exclude key issues from decision making, which can result in policies that are difficult to implement. Our participatory modeling and scenarios approach has the potential to increase awareness of such trade-offs, promote discussion of what is acceptable, and potentially identify and reduce obstacles to management compliance. PMID:26038547

An Integrated Web-Based 3d Modeling and Visualization Platform to Support Sustainable Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amirebrahimi, S.; Rajabifard, A.

2012-07-01

Sustainable Development is found as the key solution to preserve the sustainability of cities in oppose to ongoing population growth and its negative impacts. This is complex and requires a holistic and multidisciplinary decision making. Variety of stakeholders with different backgrounds also needs to be considered and involved. Numerous web-based modeling and visualization tools have been designed and developed to support this process. There have been some success stories; however, majority failed to bring a comprehensive platform to support different aspects of sustainable development. In this work, in the context of SDI and Land Administration, CSDILA Platform - a 3D visualization and modeling platform -was proposed which can be used to model and visualize different dimensions to facilitate the achievement of sustainability, in particular, in urban context. The methodology involved the design of a generic framework for development of an analytical and visualization tool over the web. CSDILA Platform was then implemented via number of technologies based on the guidelines provided by the framework. The platform has a modular structure and uses Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA). It is capable of managing spatial objects in a 4D data store and can flexibly incorporate a variety of developed models using the platform's API. Development scenarios can be modeled and tested using the analysis and modeling component in the platform and the results are visualized in seamless 3D environment. The platform was further tested using number of scenarios and showed promising results and potentials to serve a wider need. In this paper, the design process of the generic framework, the implementation of CSDILA Platform and technologies used, and also findings and future research directions will be presented and discussed.

Can Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) be used to reconstruct palaeo-climate and sea-level histories?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.

2011-12-01

Reconstruction of palaeo-environmental conditions over long time periods is notoriously difficult, especially where there are limited or no proxy records from which to extract data. Application of landscape evolution models (LEMs) for palaeo-environmental reconstruction involves hindcast modeling, in which simulation scenarios are configured with specific model variables and parameters chosen to reflect a specific hypothesis of environmental change. In this form of modeling, the environmental time series utilized are considered credible when modeled and observed landscape metrics converge. Herein we account for the uncertainties involved in evaluating the degree to which the model simulations and observations converge using Monte Carlo analysis of reduced complexity `metamodels'. The technique is applied to a case study focused on a specific set of gullies found on the southwest coast of the Isle of Wight, UK. A key factor controlling the Holocene evolution of these coastal gullies is the balance between rates of sea-cliff retreat (driven by sea-level rise) and headwards incision caused by knickpoint migration (driven by the rate of runoff). We simulate these processes using a version of the GOLEM model that has been modified to represent sea-cliff retreat. A Central Composite Design (CCD) sampling technique was employed, enabling the trajectories of gully response to different combinations of driving conditions to be modeled explicitly. In some of these simulations, where the range of bedrock erodibility (0.03 to 0.04 m0.2 a-1) and rate of sea-level change (0.005 to 0.0059 m a-1) is tightly constrained, modeled gully forms conform closely to those observed in reality, enabling a suite of climate and sea-level change scenarios which plausibly explain the Holocene evolution of the Isle of Wight gullies to be identified.

The effect of role assignment in high fidelity patient simulation on nursing students: An experimental research study.

PubMed

Weiler, Dustin T; Gibson, Andrea L; Saleem, Jason J

2018-04-01

Previous studies have evaluated the effectiveness of high fidelity patient simulators (HFPS) on nursing training; however, a gap exists on the effects of role assignment on critical thinking, self-efficacy, and situation awareness skills in team-based simulation scenarios. This study aims to determine if role assignment and the involvement level related to the roles yields significant effects and differences in critical thinking, situation awareness and self-efficacy scores in team-based high-fidelity simulation scenarios. A single factorial design with five levels and random assignment was utilized. A public university-sponsored simulation center in the United States of America. A convenience sample of 69 junior-level baccalaureate nursing students was recruited for participation. Participants were randomly assigned one of five possible roles and completed pre-simulation critical thinking and self-efficacy assessments prior to the simulation beginning. Playing within their assigned roles, participants experienced post-partum hemorrhaging scenario using an HFPS. After completing the simulation, participants completed a situation awareness assessment and a post-simulation critical thinking and self-efficacy assessment. Role assignment was found to have a statistically significant effect on critical thinking skills and a statistically significant difference in various areas of self-efficacy was also noted. However, no statistical significance in situation awareness abilities was found. Results support the notion that certain roles required the participant to be more involved with the simulation scenario, which may have yielded higher critical thinking and self-efficacy scores than roles that required a lesser level of involvement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using in situ simulation to evaluate operational readiness of a children's hospital-based obstetrics unit.

PubMed

Ventre, Kathleen M; Barry, James S; Davis, Deborah; Baiamonte, Veronica L; Wentworth, Allen C; Pietras, Michele; Coughlin, Liza; Barley, Gwyn

2014-04-01

Relocating obstetric (OB) services to a children's hospital imposes demands on facility operations, which must be met to ensure quality care and a satisfactory patient experience. We used in situ simulations to prospectively and iteratively evaluate operational readiness of a children's hospital-based OB unit before it opened for patient care. This project took place at a 314-bed, university-affiliated children's hospital. We developed 3 full-scale simulation scenarios depicting a concurrent maternal and neonatal emergency. One scenario began with a standardized patient experiencing admission; the mannequin portrayed a mother during delivery. We ran all 3 scenarios on 2 dates scheduled several weeks apart. We ran 2 of the scenarios on a third day to verify the reliability of key processes. During the simulations, content experts completed equipment checklists, and participants identified latent safety hazards. Each simulation involved a unique combination of scheduled participants who were supplemented by providers from responding ancillary services. The simulations involved 133 scheduled participants representing OB, neonatology, and anesthesiology. We exposed and addressed operational deficiencies involving equipment availability, staffing, interprofessional communication, and systems issues such as transfusion protocol failures and electronic order entry challenges. Process changes between simulation days 1 to 3 decreased the elapsed time between transfusion protocol activation and blood arrival to the operating room and labor/delivery/recovery/postpartum setting. In situ simulations identified multiple operational deficiencies on the OB unit, allowing us to take corrective action before its opening. This project may guide other children's hospitals regarding care processes likely to require significant focus and possible modification to accommodate an OB service.

Continued research on selected parameters to minimize community annoyance from airplane noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frair, L.

1981-01-01

Results from continued research on selected parameters to minimize community annoyance from airport noise are reported. First, a review of the initial work on this problem is presented. Then the research focus is expanded by considering multiobjective optimization approaches for this problem. A multiobjective optimization algorithm review from the open literature is presented. This is followed by the multiobjective mathematical formulation for the problem of interest. A discussion of the appropriate solution algorithm for the multiobjective formulation is conducted. Alternate formulations and associated solution algorithms are discussed and evaluated for this airport noise problem. Selected solution algorithms that have been implemented are then used to produce computational results for example airports. These computations involved finding the optimal operating scenario for a moderate size airport and a series of sensitivity analyses for a smaller example airport.

Kinetics of biochemical sensing by single cells and populations of cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saakian, David B.

2017-10-01

We investigate the collective stationary sensing using N communicative cells, which involves surface receptors, diffusive signaling molecules, and cell-cell communication messengers. We restrict the scenarios to the signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) for both strong communication and extrinsic noise only. We modified a previous model [Bialek and Setayeshgar, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 102, 10040 (2005), 10.1073/pnas.0504321102] to eliminate the singularities in the fluctuation correlations by considering a uniform receptor distribution over the surface of each cell with a finite radius a . The modified model enables a simple and rigorous mathematical treatment of the collective sensing phenomenon. We then derive the scaling of the SNR for both juxtacrine and autocrine cases in all dimensions. For the optimal locations of the cells in the autocrine case, we find identical scaling for both two and three dimensions.

Capture of Planetesimals into a Circumterrestrial Swarm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weidenschilling, S. J.

1985-01-01

The lunar origin model considered in this report involves processing of protolunar material through a circumterrestrial swarm of particles. Once such a swarm has formed, it can gain mass by capturing infalling planetesimals and ejecta from giant impacts on the Earth, although the angular momentum supply from these sources remains a problem. The first stage of formation of a geocentric swarm by capture of planetesimals from initially heliocentric orbits is examined. The only plausible capture mechanism that is not dependent on very low approach velocities is the mutual collision of planetesimals passing within Earth's sphere of influence. The dissipation of energy in inelastic collisions or accretion events changes the value of the Jacobi parameter, allowing capture into bound geocentric orbits. This capture scenario was tested directly by many body numerical integration of planetesimal orbits in near Earth space.

Simulation and analysis of differential GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denaro, R. P.

NASA is conducting a research program to evaluate differential Global Positioning System (GPS) concepts for civil helicopter navigation. It is pointed out that the civil helicopter community will probably be an early user of GPS because of the unique mission operations in areas where precise navigation aids are not available. However, many of these applications involve accuracy requirements which cannot be satisfied by conventional GPS. Such applications include remote area search and rescue, offshore oil platform approach, remote area precision landing, and other precise navigation operations. Differential GPS provides a promising approach for meeting very demanding accuracy requirements. The considered procedure eliminates some of the common bias errors experienced by conventional GPS. This is done by making use of a second GPS receiver. A simulation process is developed as a tool for analyzing various scenarios of GPS-referenced civil aircraft navigation.

Situated mathematics teaching within electrical engineering courses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennig, Markus; Mertsching, Bärbel; Hilkenmeier, Frederic

2015-11-01

The initial phase of undergraduate engineering degree programmes often comprises courses requiring mathematical expertise which in some cases clearly exceeds school mathematics, but will be imparted only later in mathematics courses. In this article, an approach addressing this challenge by way of example within a fundamentals of electrical engineering course is presented. The concept focuses on gaining specific mathematical knowledge and competencies in the technical context of this course. For this purpose, a complementary blended learning scenario centring around a web-based learning platform and involving an adaptation of the course was developed. The concept particularly considers the heterogeneity of today's student groups and is discussed with regard to related approaches, didactical considerations, and technical implementation. For the interventions, the results of a questionnaire-based evaluation proving students' acceptance and positive influence on examination performance are presented.

Women, family medicine, and career choice: An opportunity cost analysis.

PubMed

Essary, Alison C; Coplan, Bettie H; Cawley, James F; Schneller, Eugene S; Ohsfeldt, Robert L

2016-09-01

This study compared the cost of physician versus physician assistant (PA) education for women practicing in family medicine. Using 2013 salary survey data from both the Medical Group Management Association and the American Academy of PAs as well as other publicly available data sources, the authors compared the current net present value (NPV) of physician and PA training for women practicing in family medicine. Considering a base case scenario involving a 24-year-old woman, the NPV to become a family medicine physician was $2,015,000 compared with an NPV of $1,751,000 to become a family medicine PA. Alternative projections produced an NPV for PA training that slightly exceeded the NPV for family medicine physician training. For a woman practicing in family medicine, becoming a physician or a PA offers similar financial rewards.

Experimental demonstration of nonbilocal quantum correlations

PubMed Central

Saunders, Dylan J.; Bennet, Adam J.; Branciard, Cyril; Pryde, Geoff J.

2017-01-01

Quantum mechanics admits correlations that cannot be explained by local realistic models. The most studied models are the standard local hidden variable models, which satisfy the well-known Bell inequalities. To date, most works have focused on bipartite entangled systems. We consider correlations between three parties connected via two independent entangled states. We investigate the new type of so-called “bilocal” models, which correspondingly involve two independent hidden variables. These models describe scenarios that naturally arise in quantum networks, where several independent entanglement sources are used. Using photonic qubits, we build such a linear three-node quantum network and demonstrate nonbilocal correlations by violating a Bell-like inequality tailored for bilocal models. Furthermore, we show that the demonstration of nonbilocality is more noise-tolerant than that of standard Bell nonlocality in our three-party quantum network. PMID:28508045

Statistical mechanics of soft-boson phase transitions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Arun K.; Hill, Christopher T.; Holman, Richard; Kolb, Edward W.

1991-01-01

The existence of structure on large (100 Mpc) scales, and limits to anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR), have imperiled models of structure formation based solely upon the standard cold dark matter scenario. Novel scenarios, which may be compatible with large scale structure and small CMBR anisotropies, invoke nonlinear fluctuations in the density appearing after recombination, accomplished via the use of late time phase transitions involving ultralow mass scalar bosons. Herein, the statistical mechanics are studied of such phase transitions in several models involving naturally ultralow mass pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons (pNGB's). These models can exhibit several interesting effects at high temperature, which is believed to be the most general possibilities for pNGB's.

Comparison of H.323 and SIP for IP telephony signaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalgic, Ismail; Fang, Hanlin

1999-11-01

Two standards currently compete for the dominance of IP telephony signaling: the H.323 protocol suite by ITU-T, and the Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) by IETF. Both of these signaling protocols provide mechanisms for call establishment and teardown, call control and supplementary services, and capability exchange. We investigate and compare these two protocols in terms of Functionality, Quality of Service (QoS), Scalability, Flexibility, Interoperability, and Ease of Implementation. For fairness of comparison, we consider similar scenarios for both protocols. In particular, we focus on scenarios that involve a gatekeeper for H.323, and a Proxy/Redirect server for SIP. The reason is that medium-to-large IP Telephony systems are not manageable without a gatekeeper or proxy server. We consider all three versions of H.323. In terms of functionality and services that can be supported, H.323 version 2 and SIP are very similar. However, supplementary services in H.323 are more rigorously defined, and therefore fewer interoperability issues are expected among its implementations. Furthermore, H.323 has taken more steps to ensure compatibility among its different versions, and to interoperate with PSTN. The two protocols are comparable in their QoS support [similar call setup delays, no support for resource reservation or class of service (CoS) setting], but H.323 version 3 will allow signaling of the requested CoS. SIP's primary advantages are (1) flexibility to add new features, and (2) relative ease of implementation and debugging. Finally, we note that H.323 and SIP are improving themselves by learning from each other, and the differences between them are diminishing with each new version.

Impacts on the marine environment in the case of a hypothetical accident involving the recovery of the dumped Russian submarine K-27, based on dispersion of 137Cs.

PubMed

Hosseini, A; Amundsen, I; Brown, J; Dowdall, M; Karcher, M; Kauker, F; Schnur, R

2017-02-01

There is increasing concern regarding the issue of dumped nuclear waste in the Arctic Seas and in particular dumped objects with Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF). Amongst dumped objects in the Arctic, the dumped Russian submarine K-27 has received great attention as it contains two reactors with highly enriched fuel and lies at a depth of about 30 m under water. To address these concerns a health and environmental impact assessment has been undertaken. Marine dispersion of potentially released radionuclides as a consequence of different hypothetical accident scenarios was modelled using the model NAOSIM. The outputs from the dispersion modelling have been used as inputs to food-chain transfer and environmental dosimetry models. The annual effective doses for subsistence fishing communities of the Barents-Kara seas region do not exceed 0.6 mSv for hypothetical accidents located at Stepovogo fjord or the Barents Sea. For high rate consumers of fish in Norway, following a potential accident at the Gremikha Bay, annual effects doses would be at around 0.15 mSv. Accumulated doses (over 90 days) for various organisms and for all release scenarios considered were never in excess of 150 μGy. The levels of 137 Cs derived for marine organism in areas close to Norway were not values that would likely cause concern from a regulatory perspective although for subsistence fishing communities close to the considered accident locations, it is not inconceivable that some restrictions on fishing etc. would need to be introduced. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three large-scale changes to the Medicare program could curb its costs but also reduce enrollment.

PubMed

Eibner, Christine; Goldman, Dana P; Sullivan, Jeffrey; Garber, Alan M

2013-05-01

With Medicare spending projected to increase to 24 percent of all federal spending and to equal 6 percent of the gross domestic product by 2037, policy makers are again considering ways to curb the program's spending growth. We used a microsimulation approach to estimate three scenarios: imposing a means-tested premium for Part A hospital insurance, introducing a premium support credit to purchase health insurance, and increasing the eligibility age to sixty-seven. We found that the scenarios would lead to reductions in cumulative Medicare spending in 2012-36 of 2.4-24.0 percent. However, the scenarios also would increase out-of-pocket spending for enrollees and, in some cases, cause millions of seniors not to enroll in the program and to be left without coverage. To achieve substantial cost savings without causing substantial lack of coverage among seniors, policy makers should consider benefit changes in combination with other options, such as some of those now being contemplated by the Obama administration and Congress.

Curvaton as dark matter with secondary inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gong, Jinn-Ouk; Kitajima, Naoya; Terada, Takahiro, E-mail: jinn-ouk.gong@apctp.org, E-mail: naoya.kitajima@apctp.org, E-mail: terada@kias.re.kr

2017-03-01

We consider a novel cosmological scenario in which a curvaton is long-lived and plays the role of cold dark matter (CDM) in the presence of a short, secondary inflation. Non-trivial evolution of the large scale cosmological perturbation in the curvaton scenario can affect the duration of the short term inflation, resulting in the inhomogeneous end of inflation. Non-linear parameters of the curvature perturbation are predicted to be f {sub NL} ≈ 5/4 and g {sub NL} ≈ 0. The curvaton abundance can be well diluted by the short-term inflation and accordingly, it does not have to decay into the Standardmore » Model particles. Then the curvaton can account for the present CDM with the isocurvature perturbation being sufficiently suppressed because both the adiabatic and CDM isocurvature perturbations have the same origin. As an explicit example, we consider the thermal inflation scenario and a string axion as a candidate for this curvaton-dark matter. We further discuss possibilities to identify the curvaton-dark matter with the QCD axion.« less

Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohebbi, Negin; Najafi, Amir Abbas

2018-02-01

In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.

Behavior of Holographic Ricci Dark Energy in Scalar Gauss-Bonnet Gravity for Different Choices of the Scale Factor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqua, Antonio; Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Khurshudyan, Martiros; Aly, Ayman A.

2014-09-01

In this paper, we studied the cosmological application of the interacting Ricci Dark Energy (RDE) model in the framework of the scalar Gauss-Bonnet modified gravity model. We studied the properties of the reconstructed potential , the Strong Energy Condition (SEC), the Weak Energy Condition (WEC) and the deceleration parameter q for three different models of scale factor, i.e. the emergent, the intermediate and the logamediate one. We obtained that , for the emergent scenario, has a decreasing behavior, while, for the logamediate scenario, the potential start with an increasing behavior then, for later times, it shows a slowly decreasing behavior. Finally, for the intermediate scenario, the potential has an initial increasing behavior, then for a time of t≈1.2, it starts to decrease. We also found that both SEC and WEC are violated for all the three scale factors considered. Finally, studying the plots of q, we derived that an accelerated universe can be achieved for the three models of scale factor considered.

Integrating algaculture into small wastewater treatment plants: process flow options and life cycle impacts.

PubMed

Steele, Muriel M; Anctil, Annick; Ladner, David A

2014-05-01

Algaculture has the potential to be a sustainable option for nutrient removal at wastewater treatment plants. The purpose of this study was to compare the environmental impacts of three likely algaculture integration strategies to a conventional nutrient removal strategy. Process modeling was used to determine life cycle inventory data and a comparative life cycle assessment was used to determine environmental impacts. Treatment scenarios included a base case treatment plant without nutrient removal, a plant with conventional nutrient removal, and three other cases with algal unit processes placed at the head of the plant, in a side stream, and at the end of the plant, respectively. Impact categories included eutrophication, global warming, ecotoxicity, and primary energy demand. Integrating algaculture prior to activated sludge proved to be most beneficial of the scenarios considered for all impact categories; however, this scenario would also require primary sedimentation and impacts of that unit process should be considered for implementation of such a system.

No tension between assembly models of super massive black hole binaries and pulsar observations.

PubMed

Middleton, Hannah; Chen, Siyuan; Del Pozzo, Walter; Sesana, Alberto; Vecchio, Alberto

2018-02-08

Pulsar timing arrays are presently the only means to search for the gravitational wave stochastic background from super massive black hole binary populations, considered to be within the grasp of current or near-future observations. The stringent upper limit from the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array has been interpreted as excluding (>90% confidence) the current paradigm of binary assembly through galaxy mergers and hardening via stellar interaction, suggesting evolution is accelerated or stalled. Using Bayesian hierarchical modelling we consider implications of this upper limit for a range of astrophysical scenarios, without invoking stalling, nor more exotic physical processes. All scenarios are fully consistent with the upper limit, but (weak) bounds on population parameters can be inferred. Recent upward revisions of the black hole-galaxy bulge mass relation are disfavoured at 1.6σ against lighter models. Once sensitivity improves by an order of magnitude, a non-detection will disfavour the most optimistic scenarios at 3.9σ.

Making the Most of Modeling Tasks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wernet, Jamie L.; Lawrence, Kevin A.; Gilbertson, Nicholas J.

2015-01-01

While there is disagreement among mathematics educators about some aspects of its meaning, mathematical modeling generally involves taking a real-world scenario and translating it into the mathematical world (Niss, Blum, and Galbraith 2007). The complete modeling process involves describing situations posed in problems with mathematical concepts,…

An approach for the anticipatory and participatory management of current and future flood risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luther, J.

2012-04-01

Despite the fact that many measures to attenuate flood hazards and reduce vulnerabilities are being implemented, adverse effects of floods are ever-increasing in most parts of the world. On the one hand this holds true for economically and/or demographically growing regions. On the other hand this applies also to areas that face population shrinkage and economic problems. Such flood risks occur in human-environment systems and are subject to dynamics caused by a number of drivers such as climate change, land-use changes, and others. Many drivers evolve slowly over time or show time-lag effects and long return periods. Moreover, certain decisions may determine the control actions of the following decades. At present, current flood risks are mostly determined based on historic developments and the ex post analysis of flood events. Approaches that look at the future dynamics of both hazards and vulnerable elements ex ante in an integrated manner are rare. Instead, future hazard scenarios are often just overlaid with current socio-economic data, which poses a strong inconsistency. Usually the focus lies on rather short-term, specific or local problems. But many developments and measures show their effects only after long time periods and when considering the whole catchment area. This calls for a holistic and long-term view into the future and implies the challenge of dealing with many uncertainties due to the system's complexity. In order to anticipate and react to these developments, this contribution suggests developing a flexible, yet holistic approach to design, analyse and evaluate alternative futures of such human-environment systems. These futures follow a scenario understanding that considers both specific (current) factor constellations as well as consistent assumptions on autonomous developments (so-called development frameworks) and potentials for control (strategic alternatives) of the interacting entities that influence flood risk. Different scenario concepts and the application of respective techniques are thus reviewed and incorporated with regard to their suitability for an integrated management of current and future flood risks. In particular, "hybrid scenarios" with qualitative and quantitative components represented by nested models as well as assumptions across different spatiotemporal scales, respectively, are suggested for dealing with the uncertainties when assessing flood risks throughout a system's possible evolution. The (initially top-down developed) approach and its components will be briefly presented. These "scenario products" could later serve as a stimulus for discussions that bring together different actors and enhance - and eventually legitimise - the scenarios further in a "scenario process": (1) A first step is the conceptualisation of a flood risk system following the SPRC-model. Its physical geographical and anthropogenic factors may either be subject to autonomous trends, target-oriented control, or facultative system behaviour (e.g. dike breaches). With this concept, the integration of different processes and scales is aspired. (2) Secondly, it is conceptually shown how the risk cascade for present and future states of the flood risk system can be calculated based on coupled models ranging from climate change projections to a damage simulation models. (3) Thirdly, ways to develop socioeconomic storylines for the development frameworks and guiding principles for the strategic alternatives are presented and the futures are combined. This involves making plausible and consistent assumptions for many system factors and their drivers and finding ways to harmonise existing data for the same areas and time steps. (4) Fourthly, selected futures can be analysed and evaluated ex ante applying the coupled models of the second step to derive the emerging flood risks. The evaluation addresses, amongst other aspects, the identification of (i) the sensitivity of all scenarios against the current strategic alternative; (ii) the resulting risks when applying different strategic alternatives against one selected scenario; (iii) the efficiency (as cost-effectiveness) and robustness of one selected strategic alternative against the different scenarios; and (iv) the model uncertainty, for example caused by different climate downscaling methods. It is of growing importance to place any scenario/simulation results in a societal or even individual context and confront them with the perspectives of the people potentially affected. Only this yields a holistic picture and may lead to sustainable, comprehensible decisions. The approach is partly exemplified with research conducted in Saxony (Germany) and the Elbe River catchment in Central Europe and concentrates on river or plain floods, neglecting water quality issues.

Active euthanasia and assisted suicide: a perspective from an American abortion and Dutch euthanasia scenario.

PubMed

Musgrave, C F

1998-10-01

To discuss the critical issues involved in the legalization of active euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide. Nursing, medical, legal, and ethics literature; newspaper articles; book chapters. The major terms employed in the discussion of active euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide are defined. The implications of the recent Supreme Court decision on these practices are outlined. The Dutch euthanasia and the American abortion scenarios are used as models for the interpretation of the effects of future legislation on such practices. Oncology nurses need to be cognizant of the crucial issues involved in the practices of active euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide and determine their philosophical stance regarding the practices. If active euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide practices are legalized, oncology nurses will have to make decisions about their desired degree of involvement in acts that will end their patients' lives.

Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

PubMed Central

Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

2015-01-01

Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

Quantifying the climate impacts of albedo changes due to biofuel production: a comparison with biogeochemical effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caiazzo, Fabio; Malina, Robert; Staples, Mark D.; Wolfe, Philip J.; Yim, Steve H. L.; Barrett, Steven R. H.

2014-01-01

Lifecycle analysis is a tool widely used to evaluate the climate impact of greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the production and use of biofuels. In this paper we employ an augmented lifecycle framework that includes climate impacts from changes in surface albedo due to land use change. We consider eleven land-use change scenarios for the cultivation of biomass for middle distillate fuel production, and compare our results to previous estimates of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions for the same set of land-use change scenarios in terms of CO2e per unit of fuel energy. We find that two of the land-use change scenarios considered demonstrate a warming effect due to changes in surface albedo, compared to conventional fuel, the largest of which is for replacement of desert land with salicornia cultivation. This corresponds to 222 gCO2e/MJ, equivalent to 3890% and 247% of the lifecycle GHG emissions of fuels derived from salicornia and crude oil, respectively. Nine of the land-use change scenarios considered demonstrate a cooling effect, the largest of which is for the replacement of tropical rainforests with soybean cultivation. This corresponds to - 161 gCO2e/MJ, or - 28% and - 178% of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of fuels derived from soybean and crude oil, respectively. These results indicate that changes in surface albedo have the potential to dominate the climate impact of biofuels, and we conclude that accounting for changes in surface albedo is necessary for a complete assessment of the aggregate climate impacts of biofuel production and use.

Simulating Deforestation and Carbon Loss in Amazonia: Impacts in Brazil's Roraima State from Reconstructing Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barni, Paulo Eduardo; Fearnside, Philip Martin; Graça, Paulo Maurício Lima de Alencastro

2015-02-01

Reconstruction of Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho) would allow for access from the "arc of deforestation" in the southern part of Brazil's Amazon region to vast blocks of forests in central and northern Amazonia. Building roads is known to be a major driver of deforestation, allowing entry of squatters, and other actors. Rather than deforestation along the highway route, here we consider the road's potential for stimulating deforestation in a separate location, approximately 550 km north of BR-319's endpoint in Manaus. Reconstructing BR-319 has great potential impact to start a new wave of migration to this remote region. The southern portion of the state of Roraima, the focus of our study, is already connected to Manaus by Highway BR-174. We modeled deforestation in southern Roraima and simulated carbon emissions between 2007 and 2030 under four scenarios. Simulations used the AGROECO model in DINAMICA-EGO software. Two scenarios were considered with reconstruction of BR-319 and two without this road connection. For each of the two possibilities regarding BR-319, simulations were developed for (1) a "conservation" (CONSERV) scenario that assumes the creation of a series of protected areas, and (2) a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario that assumes no additional protected areas. Results show that by 2030, with BR-319 rebuilt, deforestation carbon emissions would increase between 19 % (CONSERV) and 42 % (BAU) over and above those corresponding to no-road scenarios.

Simulating deforestation and carbon loss in Amazonia: impacts in Brazil's Roraima state from reconstructing Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho).

PubMed

Barni, Paulo Eduardo; Fearnside, Philip Martin; Graça, Paulo Maurício Lima de Alencastro

2015-02-01

Reconstruction of Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho) would allow for access from the "arc of deforestation" in the southern part of Brazil's Amazon region to vast blocks of forests in central and northern Amazonia. Building roads is known to be a major driver of deforestation, allowing entry of squatters, and other actors. Rather than deforestation along the highway route, here we consider the road's potential for stimulating deforestation in a separate location, approximately 550 km north of BR-319's endpoint in Manaus. Reconstructing BR-319 has great potential impact to start a new wave of migration to this remote region. The southern portion of the state of Roraima, the focus of our study, is already connected to Manaus by Highway BR-174. We modeled deforestation in southern Roraima and simulated carbon emissions between 2007 and 2030 under four scenarios. Simulations used the AGROECO model in DINAMICA-EGO © software. Two scenarios were considered with reconstruction of BR-319 and two without this road connection. For each of the two possibilities regarding BR-319, simulations were developed for (1) a "conservation" (CONSERV) scenario that assumes the creation of a series of protected areas, and (2) a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario that assumes no additional protected areas. Results show that by 2030, with BR-319 rebuilt, deforestation carbon emissions would increase between 19% (CONSERV) and 42% (BAU) over and above those corresponding to no-road scenarios.

Investigation of Active Interrogation Techniques to Detect Special Nuclear Material in Maritime Environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Thomas Martin; Patton, Bruce W

The detection and interdiction of special nuclear material (SNM) is still a high-priority focus area for many organizations around the world. One method that is commonly considered a leading candidate in the detection of SNM is active interrogation (AI). AI is different from its close relative, passive interrogation, in that an active source is used to enhance or create a detectable signal (usually fission) from SNM, particularly in shielded scenarios or scenarios where the SNM has a low activity. The use of AI thus makes the detection of SNM easier or, in some scenarios, even enables previously impossible detection. Inmore » this work the signal from prompt neutrons and photons as well as delayed neutrons and photons will be combined, as is typically done in AI. In previous work AI has been evaluated experimentally and computationally. However, for the purposes of this work, past scenarios are considered lightly shielded and tightly coupled spatially. At most, the previous work interrogated the contents of one standard cargo container (2.44 x 2.60 x 6.10 m) and the source and detector were both within a few meters of the object being interrogated. A few examples of this type of previous work can be found in references 1 and 2. Obviously, more heavily shielded AI scenarios will require larger source intensities, larger detector surface areas (larger detectors or more detectors), greater detector efficiencies, longer count times, or some combination of these.« less

Technical, hygiene, economic, and life cycle assessment of full-scale moving bed biofilm reactors for wastewater treatment in India.

PubMed

Singh, Anju; Kamble, Sheetal Jaisingh; Sawant, Megha; Chakravarthy, Yogita; Kazmi, Absar; Aymerich, Enrique; Starkl, Markus; Ghangrekar, Makarand; Philip, Ligy

2018-01-01

Moving bed biofilm reactor (MBBR) is a highly effective biological treatment process applied to treat both urban and industrial wastewaters in developing countries. The present study investigated the technical performance of ten full-scale MBBR systems located across India. The biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, total suspended solid, pathogens, and nutrient removal efficiencies were low as compared to the values claimed in literature. Plant 1 was considered for evaluation of environmental impacts using life cycle assessment approach. CML 2 baseline 2000 methodology was adopted, in which 11 impact categories were considered. The life cycle impact assessment results revealed that the main environmental hot spot of this system was energy consumption. Additionally, two scenarios were compared: scenario 1 (direct discharge of treated effluent, i.e., no reuse) and scenario 2 (effluent reuse and tap water replacement). The results showed that scenario 2 significantly reduce the environmental impact in all the categories ultimately decreasing the environmental burden. Moreover, significant economic and environmental benefits can be obtained in scenario 2 by replacing the freshwater demand for non-potable uses. To enhance the performance of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), there is a need to optimize energy consumption and increase wastewater collection efficiency to maximize the operating capacity of plant and minimize overall environmental footprint. It was concluded that MBBR can be a good alternative for upgrading and optimizing existing municipal wastewater treatment plants with appropriate tertiary treatment. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

A comprehensive multi-scenario based approach for a reliable flood-hazard assessment: a case-study application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanni, Cristiano; Mazzorana, Bruno; Volcan, Claudio; Bertagnolli, Rudi

2015-04-01

Flood hazard is generally assessed by assuming the return period of the rainfall as a proxy for the return period of the discharge and the related hydrograph. Frequently this deterministic view is extended also to the straightforward application of hydrodynamic models. However, the climate (i.e. precipitation), the catchment (i.e. geology, soil and antecedent soil-moisture condition) and the anthropogenic (i.e. drainage system and its regulation) systems interact in a complex way, and the occurrence probability of a flood inundation event can significantly differ from the occurrence probability of the triggering event (i.e. rainfall). In order to reliably determine the spatial patterns of flood intensities and probabilities, the rigorous determination of flood event scenarios is beneficial because it provides a clear, rationale method to recognize and unveil the inherent stochastic behavior of natural processes. Therefore, a multi-scenario approach for hazard assessment should be applied and should consider the possible events taking place in the area potentially subject to flooding (i.e. floodplains). Here, we apply a multi-scenario approach for the assessment of the flood hazard around the Idro lake (Italy). We consider and estimate the probability of occurrence of several scenarios related to the initial (i.e. initial water level in the lake) and boundary (i.e. shape of the hydrograph, downslope drainage, spillway opening operations) conditions characterizing the lake. Finally, we discuss the advantages and issues of the presented methodological procedure compared to traditional (and essentially deterministic) approaches.

Probing 6D operators at future e - e + colliders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, Wen Han; Leung, Sze Ching; Liu, Tao; Lyu, Kun-Feng; Wang, Lian-Tao

2018-05-01

We explore the sensitivities at future e - e + colliders to probe a set of six-dimensional operators which can modify the SM predictions on Higgs physics and electroweak precision measurements. We consider the case in which the operators are turned on simultaneously. Such an analysis yields a "conservative" interpretation on the collider sensitivities, complementary to the "optimistic" scenario where the operators are individually probed. After a detail analysis at CEPC in both "conservative" and "optimistic" scenarios, we also considered the sensitivities for FCC-ee and ILC. As an illustration of the potential of constraining new physics models, we applied sensitivity analysis to two benchmarks: holographic composite Higgs model and littlest Higgs model.

Assessments of direct human exposure: the approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.

PubMed

Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

2007-08-01

The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.

Indirect health costs in ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kawalec, Paweł; Malinowski, Krzysztof Piotr

2015-04-01

The aim of this systematic review was to collect all current data on indirect costs related to inflammatory bowel disease as well as assessing homogeneity and comparability, and conducting a meta-analysis. Costs were collected using databases from Medline, Embase and Centre for Reviews and Dissemination databases, then average annual cost per patient was calculated and expressed in 2013-rate USD using the consumer price index and purchasing power parity (scenario 1) and then adjusted to specific gross domestic product (scenario 2) to make them comparable. The studies were then included in quantitative synthesis using the meta-analysis and bootstrap methods. This systematic review was carried out and reported in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. From 18 publications, overall annual indirect costs per patient as a result of the quantitative synthesis among all studies eligible for meta-analysis ranged from US$2425.01-US$9622.15 depending on the scenario and model used for analysis. The cost of presenteeism was assessed in only two studies. Considering heterogeneity among all identified studies random-effect model presented the most accurate results of meta-analysis equal to US$7189.27 and US$9622.15 per patient per year for scenario 1 and scenario 2, respectively. This systematic review revealed the existence of a relatively small number of studies that reported on the great economic burden of the disease upon society. A great variety of methodologies and cost components resulted in a very large discrepancy in indirect costs and made meta-analysis difficult to perform, so two scenarios were considered and meta-analysis conducted in subgroups to make data more comparable.

Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.

2015-08-01

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic withinmore » each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm –2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.« less

Online tools for nucleosynthesis studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Göbel, K.; Glorius, J.; Koloczek, A.; Pignatari, M.; Plag, R.; Reifarth, R.; Ritter, C.; Schmidt, S.; Sonnabend, K.; Thomas, B.; Travaglio, C.

2018-01-01

The nucleosynthesis of the elements between iron and uranium involves many different astrophysical scenarios covering wide ranges of temperatures and densities. Thousands of nuclei and ten thousands of reaction rates have to be included in the corresponding simulations. We investigate the impact of single rates on the predicted abundance distributions with post-processing nucleosynthesis simulations. We present online tools, which allow the investigation of sensitivities and integrated mass fluxes in different astrophysical scenarios.

Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario.

PubMed

Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M; Ahmed, Rami

2016-08-31

Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes.

Red-Light-Running Crashes' Classification, Comparison, and Risk Analysis Based on General Estimates System (GES) Crash Database.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuting; Yan, Xuedong; Li, Xiaomeng; Wu, Jiawei; Dixit, Vinayak V

2018-06-19

Red-light running (RLR) has been identified as one of the prominent contributing factors involved in signalized intersection crashes. In order to reduce RLR crashes, primarily, a better understanding of RLR behavior and crashes is needed. In this study, three RLR crash types were extracted from the general estimates system (GES), including go-straight (GS) RLR vehicle colliding with go-straight non-RLR vehicle, go-straight RLR vehicle colliding with left-turn (LT) non-RLR vehicle, and left-turn RLR vehicle colliding with go-straight non-RLR vehicle. Then, crash features within each crash type scenario were compared, and risk analyses of GS RLR and LT RLR were also conducted. The results indicated that for the GS RLR driver, the speed limit displayed the highest effects on the percentages of GS RLR collision scenarios. For the LT RLR driver, the number of lanes displayed the highest effects on the percentages of LT RLR collision scenarios. Additionally, the drivers who were older than 50 years, distracted, and had a limited view were more likely to be involved in LT RLR accidents. Furthermore, the speeding drivers were more likely to be involved in GS RLR accidents. These findings could give a comprehensive understanding of RLR crash features and propensities for each RLR crash type.

Attractor scenarios and superluminal signals in k-essence cosmology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kang, Jin U; Arnold Sommerfeld Center, Department of Physics, Ludwig-Maximilians University, Theresienstrasse 37, 80333 Munich; Vanchurin, Vitaly

Cosmological scenarios with k-essence are invoked in order to explain the observed late-time acceleration of the Universe. These scenarios avoid the need for fine-tuned initial conditions (the 'coincidence problem') because of the attractorlike dynamics of the k-essence field {phi}. It was recently shown that all k-essence scenarios with Lagrangians p=L(X){phi}{sup -2}, where X{identical_to}(1/2){phi}{sub ,{mu}}{phi}{sup ,{mu}}, necessarily involve an epoch where perturbations of {phi} propagate faster than light (the 'no-go theorem'). We carry out a comprehensive study of attractorlike cosmological solutions ('trackers') involving a k-essence scalar field {phi} and another matter component. The result of this study is a complete classificationmore » of k-essence Lagrangians that admit asymptotically stable tracking solutions, among all Lagrangians of the form p=K({phi})L(X). Using this classification, we select the class of models that describe the late-time acceleration and avoid the coincidence problem through the tracking mechanism. An analogous 'no-go theorem' still holds for this class of models, indicating the existence of a superluminal epoch. In the context of k-essence cosmology, the superluminal epoch does not lead to causality violations. We discuss the implications of superluminal signal propagation for possible causality violations in Lorentz-invariant field theories.« less

Scenario analysis of freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Ming-Chih; Su, Chien-Chih

2004-07-01

This study develops a quantitative risk model by utilizing Generalized Linear Interactive Model (GLIM) to analyze the major freight vehicle accidents in Taiwan. Eight scenarios are established by interacting three categorical variables of driver ages, vehicle types and road types, each of which contains two levels. The database that consists of 2043 major accidents occurring between 1994 and 1998 in Taiwan is utilized to fit and calibrate the model parameters. The empirical results indicate that accident rates of freight vehicles in Taiwan were high in the scenarios involving trucks and non-freeway systems, while; accident consequences were severe in the scenarios involving mature drivers or non-freeway systems. Empirical evidences also show that there is no significant relationship between accident rates and accident consequences. This is to stress that safety studies that describe risk merely as accident rates rather than the combination of accident rates and consequences by definition might lead to biased risk perceptions. Finally, the study recommends using number of vehicle as an alternative of traffic exposure in commercial vehicle risk analysis. The merits of this would be that it is simple and thus reliable; meanwhile, the resulted risk that is termed as fatalities per vehicle could provide clear and direct policy implications for insurance practices and safety regulations.

Integration of production and financial models to analyse the financial impact of livestock diseases: a case study of Schmallenberg virus disease on British and French dairy farms

PubMed Central

Häsler, Barbara; Alarcon, Pablo; Raboisson, Didier; Waret-Szkuta, Agnes; Rushton, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Aims and objectives The aim of the study was to investigate and compare the financial impact of Schmallenberg disease for different dairy production types in the United Kingdom and France. Materials and methods Integrated production and financial models for dairy cattle were developed and applied to Schmallenberg virus (SBV) disease in a British and French context. The five main production systems that prevail in these two countries were considered. Their respective gross margins measuring the holding's profitability were calculated based on public benchmarking, literature and expert opinion data. A partial budget analysis was performed within each production model to estimate the impact of SBV in the systems modelled. Two disease scenarios were simulated: low impact and high impact. Results The model gross margin obtained per cow space and year ranged from £1014 to £1484 for the UK and from £1037 to £1890 for France depending on the production system considered. In the UK, the net SBV disease costs in £/cow space/year for an average dairy farm with 100 milking spaces were estimated between £16.3 and £51.4 in the high-impact scenario and between £8.2 and £25.9 in the low-impact scenario. For France, the net SBV disease costs in £/cow space/year ranged from £19.6 to £48.6 in the high-impact scenario and £9.7 to £22.8 in the low-impact scenario, respectively. Conclusion The study illustrates how the combination of production and financial models allows assessing disease impact taking into account differing management and husbandry practices and associated price structures in the dairy sector. It supports decision-making of farmers and veterinarians who are considering disease control measures as it provides an approach to estimate baseline disease impact in common dairy production systems in the UK and France. PMID:26392883

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused by ozone was about 5.0-5.6% in the SSP2 scenario and 3.8-4.2% in the RCP scenario.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Discussing and Defining Sexual Assault: A Classroom Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Franiuk, Renae

2007-01-01

The author devised a classroom activity that facilitates discussion and increases awareness about sexual assault. Students read scenarios involving sexual situations that varied in ambiguity, then labeled whether the situations involved a sexual assault. Students also gave their definitions of sexual assault and completed an evaluation of the…

Comparative life cycle cost assessment of painted and hot-dip galvanized bridges.

PubMed

Rossi, B; Marquart, S; Rossi, G

2017-07-15

The study addresses the life cycle cost assessment (LCCA) of steel bridges, focusing on the maintenance activities and the maintenance scenario. Firstly, the unit costs of maintenance activities and their durability (i.e. the time between two activities) are evaluated. Pragmatic data are provided for the environment category C4 and for three activities: Patch Up, Overcoating and Remove & Replace. A comparative LCCA for a typical hypothetic steel girder bridge is carried out, either painted or hot-dip galvanized (HDG), in the environmental class C4. The LCC versus the cumulated life is provided for both options. The initial cost of the steel unpainted option is only 50.3% of the HDG option. It is shown that after 'Overcoating' occurring at 18.5 years, the total Net Present Value (NPV) of the painted option surpasses that of the HDG option. A sensitivity analysis of the NPV to the cost and service life parameters, the escalation and discount rates is then performed. The discount and escalation rates, considerably influences the total LCC, following a non-linear trend. The total LCC decreases with the discount rate increasing and, conversely, increases with the escalation rate increasing. Secondly, the influence of the maintenance scenario on the total LCC is assessed based on a probabilistic approach. A permutation of the three independent maintenance activities assumed to occur six times over the life of the bridge is considered and a probability of occurrence is associated to each unique scenario. The most probable scenarios are then classified according to their NPV or achieved service life. This approach leads to the definition of a cost-effective maintenance scenario i.e. the scenario, within all the considered permutations, that has the minimum LCC in a range of lifespan. Besides, the probabilistic analysis also shows that, whatever the scenario, the return on investment period ranges between 18.5 years and 24.2 years. After that period, the HDG option becomes economic. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating science, policy and stakeholder perspectives for water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbour, Emily; Allan, Andrew; Whitehead, Paul; Salehin, Mashfiqus; Lazzar, Attila; Lim, Michelle; Munsur Rahman, Md.

2015-04-01

Successful management of water resources requires an integrated approach considering the complex relationships between different biophysical processes, governance frameworks and socio-economic factors. The Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) Deltas project has developed a range of socio-economic scenarios using a participatory approach, and applied these across different biophysical models as well as an integrated environmental, socio-economic model of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta. This work demonstrates a novel approach through the consideration of multiple ecosystem services and related socio-economic factors in the development of scenarios; the application of these to multiple models at multiple scales; and the participatory approach to improve project outcomes and engage national level stakeholders and policy makers. Scenarios can assist in planning for an uncertain future through exploring plausible alternatives. To adequately assess the potential impacts of future changes and management strategies on water resources, the wider biophysical, socio-economic and governance context needs to be considered. A series of stakeholder workshops have been held in Bangladesh to identify issues of main concern relating to the GBM Delta; to iteratively develop scenario narratives for business as usual, less sustainable, and more sustainable development pathways; and to translate these qualitative scenarios into a quantitative form suitable for analysis. The combined impact of these scenarios and climate change on water quantity and quality within the GBM Basin are demonstrated. Results suggest that climate change is likely to impact on both peak and low flows to a greater extent than most socio-economic changes. However, the diversion of water from the Ganges and Brahmaputra has the potential to significantly impact on water availability in Bangladesh depending on the timing and quantity of diversions. Both climate change and socio-economic scenarios are likely to impact on water quality. This work provides the foundation for investigating the effects of different policy and management interventions in coastal Bangladesh, and exploring trade-offs between different water resource objectives, and other ecosystem, social or economic objectives.

What makes a good LOFT scenario? Issues in advancing current knowledge of scenario design. [Line Oriented Flight Training

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregorich, Steven E.

1991-01-01

An effort is made to ascertain which combinations of technical demands and crew coordination should be incorporated in training scenarios in order to maximize the effectiveness of training for crew members. Such high-fidelity simulation, which has come to be known as 'line-oriented flight training' or LOFT, involves the practice of both technical and crew coordination skills in a realistic setting, in conjunction with periodic reviews of performance via videotaped feedback. Attention is given to the integration of appropriate information, the measurement of objective task demands, the character of information from LOFT students, and the leeway allowed LOFT instructors.

Analysis of LNG peakshaving-facility release-prevention systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pelto, P.J.; Baker, E.G.; Powers, T.B.

1982-05-01

The purpose of this study is to provide an analysis of release prevention systems for a reference LNG peakshaving facility. An overview assessment of the reference peakshaving facility, which preceeded this effort, identified 14 release scenarios which are typical of the potential hazards involved in the operation of LNG peakshaving facilities. These scenarios formed the basis for this more detailed study. Failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis were used to estimate the expected frequency of each release scenario for the reference peakshaving facility. In addition, the effectiveness of release prevention, release detection, and release control systems weremore » evaluated.« less

Consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation in EIA practice — Perspectives of actors in Austria and Germany

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiricka, Alexandra, E-mail: alexandra.jiricka@boku.ac.at; Department of Landscape, Spatial and Infrastructure Sciences, Institute for Landscape Development, Recreation and Conservation Planning, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna; Formayer, Herbert

Current political discussions and developments indicate the importance and urgency of incorporating climate change considerations into EIA processes. The recent revision of the EU Directive 2014/52/EU on Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) requires changes in the EIA practice of the EU member states. This paper investigates the extent to which the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) can contribute to an early consideration of climate change consequences in planning processes. In particular the roles of different actors in order to incorporate climate change impacts and adaptation into project planning subject to EIA at the appropriate levels are a core topic. Semi-structured expert interviewsmore » were carried out with representatives of the main infrastructure companies and institutions responsible in these sectors in Austria, which have to carry out EIA regularly. In a second step expert interviews were conducted with EIA assessors and EIA authorities in Austria and Germany, in order to examine the extent to which climate-based changes are already considered in EIA processes. This paper aims to discuss the different perspectives in the current EIA practice with regard to integrating climate change impacts as well as barriers and solutions identified by the groups of actors involved, namely project developers, environmental competent authorities and consultants (EIA assessors/practitioners). The interviews show that different groups of actors consider the topic to different degrees. Downscaling of climate change scenarios is in this context both, a critical issue with regards to availability of data and costs. Furthermore, assistance for the interpretation of relevant impacts, to be deducted from climate change scenarios, on the specific environmental issues in the area is needed. The main barriers identified by the EIA experts therefore include a lack of data as well as general uncertainty as to how far climate change should be considered in the process without reliable data but in the presence of knowledge about possible consequences at an abstract level. A joint strategy on how to cope with uncertain prognoses about main impacts on environmental issues for areas without reliable data requires a discussion and cooperation between EIA consultants and environmental authorities. - Highlights: • The consideration of climate change impacts in EIA practice in Austria and Germany was analysed through expert interviews. • Barriers as well as possible solutions were indentified by the different groups of actors involved in EIA. • The main challenges regard the investigation of specific entry points. • Limits of feasibility need to be discussed amongst the different groups of actors.« less

Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jérôme; Brecha, Robert J.

This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to includemore » alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.« less

Building Civilian-Military Collaboration to Enhance Response Following an Anthrax Release

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-04

thought that rural communities are not considered ―high risk‖ for the anthrax scenario as their widely dispersed population may not be a likely a...terrorist target.27 The community planners’ perception of risk will impact the time and effort a rural community places towards planning for these...types of scenarios. The diversity of urban and rural populations and their differing healthcare systems and infrastructures present complexities when

Environmental implications of anaerobic digestion for manure management in dairy farms in Mexico: a life cycle perspective.

PubMed

Rivas-García, Pasiano; Botello-Álvarez, José E; Abel Seabra, Joaquim E; da Silva Walter, Arnaldo C; Estrada-Baltazar, Alejandro

2015-01-01

The environmental profile of milk production in Mexico was analysed for three manure management scenarios: fertilization (F), anaerobic digestion (AD) and enhanced anaerobic digestion (EAD). The study used the life cycle assessment (LCA) technique, considering a 'cradle-to-gate' approach. The assessment model was constructed using SimaPro LCA software, and the life cycle impact assessment was performed according to the ReCiPe method. Dairy farms with AD and EAD scenarios were found to exhibit, respectively, 12% and 27% less greenhouse gas emissions, 58% and 31% less terrestrial acidification, and 3% and 18% less freshwater eutrophication than the F scenario. A different trend was observed in the damage to resource availability indicator, as the F scenario presented 6% and 22% less damage than the EAD and AD scenarios, respectively. The magnitude of environmental damage from milk production in the three dairy manure management scenarios, using a general single score indicator, was 0.118, 0.107 and 0.081 Pt/L of milk for the F, AD and EAD scenarios, respectively. These results indicate that manure management systems with anaerobic digestion can improve the environmental profile of each litre of milk produced.

Energy crops on landfills: functional, environmental, and costs analysis of different landfill configurations.

PubMed

Pivato, Alberto; Garbo, Francesco; Moretto, Marco; Lavagnolo, Maria Cristina

2018-02-09

The cultivation of energy crops on landfills represents an important challenge for the near future, as the possibility to use devalued sites for energy production is very attractive. In this study, four scenarios have been assessed and compared with respect to a reference case defined for northern Italy. The scenarios were defined taking into consideration current energy crops issues. In particular, the first three scenarios were based on energy maximisation, phytotreatment ability, and environmental impact, respectively. The fourth scenario was a combination of these characteristics emphasised by the previous scenarios. A multi-criteria analysis, based on economic, energetic, and environmental aspects, was performed. From the analysis, the best scenario resulted to be the fourth, with its ability to pursue several objectives simultaneously and obtain the best score relatively to both environmental and energetic criteria. On the contrary, the economic criterion emerges as weak, as all the considered scenarios showed some limits from this point of view. Important indications for future designs can be derived. The decrease of leachate production due to the presence of energy crops on the top cover, which enhances evapotranspiration, represents a favourable but critical aspect in the definition of the results.

Looking to the future: Framing the implementation of interprofessional education and practice with scenario planning.

PubMed

Forman, Dawn; Nicol, Pam; Nicol, Paul

2015-01-01

Adapting to interprofessional education and practice requires a change of perspective for many health professionals. We aimed to explore the potential of scenario planning to bridge the understanding gap and framing strategic planning for interprofessional education (IPE) and practice (IPP), as well as to implement innovative techniques and technology for large-group scenario planning. A full-day scenario planning workshop incorporating innovative methodology was designed and offered to participants. The 71 participants included academics from nine universities, as well as service providers, government, students and consumer organisations. The outcomes were evaluated by statistical and thematic analysis of a mixed method survey questionnaire. The scenario planning method resulted in a positive response as a means of collaboratively exploring current knowledge and broadening entrenched attitudes. It was perceived to be an effective instrument for framing strategy for the implementation of IPE/IPP, with 81 percent of respondents to a post-workshop survey indicating they would consider using scenario planning in their own organisations. The scenario planning method can be used by tertiary academic institutions as a strategy in developing, implementing and embedding IPE, and for the enculturation of IPP in practice settings.

Simulation of Regionally Ecological Land Based on a Cellular Automation Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

2012-01-01

Ecological land is like the “liver” of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem. PMID:23066410

A two-objective optimization scheme for high-OSNR and low-power-consuming all-optical networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abedifar, Vahid; Mirjalili, Seyed Mohammad; Eshghi, Mohammad

2015-01-01

In all-optical networks the ASE noise of the utilized optical power amplifiers is a major impairment, making the OSNR to be the dominant parameter in QoS. In this paper, a two-objective optimization scheme using Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO) is proposed to reach the maximum OSNR for all channels while the optical power consumed by EDFAs and lasers is minimized. Two scenarios are investigated: Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. The former scenario optimizes the gain values of a predefined number of EDFAs in physical links. The gain values may be different from each other. The latter scenario optimizes the gains value of EDFAs (which is supposed to be identical in each physical link) in addition to the number of EDFAs for each physical link. In both scenarios, the launch powers of the lasers are also taken into account during optimization process. Two novel encoding methods are proposed to uniquely represent the problem solutions. Two virtual demand sets are considered for evaluation of the performance of the proposed optimization scheme. The simulations results are described for both scenarios and both virtual demands.

Simulation of regionally ecological land based on a cellular automation model: a case study of Beijing, China.

PubMed

Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

2012-08-01

Ecological land is like the "liver" of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem.

A Methodology for Robust Comparative Life Cycle Assessments Incorporating Uncertainty.

PubMed

Gregory, Jeremy R; Noshadravan, Arash; Olivetti, Elsa A; Kirchain, Randolph E

2016-06-21

We propose a methodology for conducting robust comparative life cycle assessments (LCA) by leveraging uncertainty. The method evaluates a broad range of the possible scenario space in a probabilistic fashion while simultaneously considering uncertainty in input data. The method is intended to ascertain which scenarios have a definitive environmentally preferable choice among the alternatives being compared and the significance of the differences given uncertainty in the parameters, which parameters have the most influence on this difference, and how we can identify the resolvable scenarios (where one alternative in the comparison has a clearly lower environmental impact). This is accomplished via an aggregated probabilistic scenario-aware analysis, followed by an assessment of which scenarios have resolvable alternatives. Decision-tree partitioning algorithms are used to isolate meaningful scenario groups. In instances where the alternatives cannot be resolved for scenarios of interest, influential parameters are identified using sensitivity analysis. If those parameters can be refined, the process can be iterated using the refined parameters. We also present definitions of uncertainty quantities that have not been applied in the field of LCA and approaches for characterizing uncertainty in those quantities. We then demonstrate the methodology through a case study of pavements.

Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study.

PubMed

Khosravi Shadmani, Fatemeh; Mansori, Kamyar; Karami, Manoochehr; Zayeri, Farid; Shadman, Reza Khosravi; Hanis, Shiva Mansouri; Soori, Hamid

2017-03-01

The aim of this study was to model the avoidable burden of the risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran and to prioritize interventions to reduce that burden. The prevalence and the effect size of the risk factors were obtained from data documented by the traffic police of Iran in 2013. The effect size was estimated using an ordinal regression model. The potential impact fraction index was applied to calculate the avoidable burden in order to prioritize interventions. This index was calculated for theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios. The joint effects of the risk factors were then estimated for all the scenarios. The highest avoidable burdens in the theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios for the non-use of child restraints on urban roads were 52.25, 28.63, and 46.67, respectively. In contrast, the value of this index for speeding was 76.24, 37.00, and 62.23, respectively, for rural roads. On the basis of the different scenarios considered in this research, we suggest focusing on future interventions to decrease the prevalence of speeding, the non-use of child restraints, the use of cell phones while driving, and helmet disuse, and the laws related to these items should be considered seriously.

Life cycle assessment based evaluation of regional impacts from agricultural production at the Peruvian coast.

PubMed

Bartl, Karin; Verones, Francesca; Hellweg, Stefanie

2012-09-18

Crop and technology choices in agriculture, which largely define the impact of agricultural production on the environment, should be considered in agricultural development planning. A life cycle assessment of the dominant crops produced in a Peruvian coastal valley was realized, in order to establish regionalized life cycle inventories for Peruvian products and to provide the basis for a regional evaluation of the impacts of eutrophication, acidification, human toxicity, and biodiversity loss due to water use. Five scenarios for the year 2020 characterized by different crop combinations and irrigation systems were considered as development options. The results of the regional assessment showed that a business-as-usual scenario, extrapolating current trends of crop cultivation, would lead to an increase in nitrate leaching with eutrophying effects. On the other hand, scenarios of increased application of drip irrigation and of mandarin area expansion would lead to a decrease in nitrate leaching. In all scenarios the human toxicity potential would decrease slightly, while an increase in irrigation water use would benefit the biodiversity of a nearby groundwater-fed wetland. Comparisons with results from other studies confirmed the importance of regionalized life cycle inventories. The results can be used as decision support for local farmers and authorities.

Algorithm to solve a chance-constrained network capacity design problem with stochastic demands and finite support

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schumacher, Kathryn M.; Chen, Richard Li-Yang; Cohn, Amy E. M.

2016-04-15

Here, we consider the problem of determining the capacity to assign to each arc in a given network, subject to uncertainty in the supply and/or demand of each node. This design problem underlies many real-world applications, such as the design of power transmission and telecommunications networks. We first consider the case where a set of supply/demand scenarios are provided, and we must determine the minimum-cost set of arc capacities such that a feasible flow exists for each scenario. We briefly review existing theoretical approaches to solving this problem and explore implementation strategies to reduce run times. With this as amore » foundation, our primary focus is on a chance-constrained version of the problem in which α% of the scenarios must be feasible under the chosen capacity, where α is a user-defined parameter and the specific scenarios to be satisfied are not predetermined. We describe an algorithm which utilizes a separation routine for identifying violated cut-sets which can solve the problem to optimality, and we present computational results. We also present a novel greedy algorithm, our primary contribution, which can be used to solve for a high quality heuristic solution. We present computational analysis to evaluate the performance of our proposed approaches.« less

Finale of a Quartet: Hints on Supernova Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Xiao; Thompson, Todd A.; Hirata, Christopher M.

2018-01-01

The origin of Type Ia Supernovae (SNe) is not well understood. Two most popular hypotheses are the single-degenerate scenario, where one white dwarf (WD) accretes matter from its giant companion until the Chandrasekhar limit is reached, and the double-degenerate scenario, where two WDs merge and explode. We focus on the second scenario. It has long been realized that binary WD systems normally take extremely long time to merge via gravitational waves and it is still unclear whether WD mergers can fully account for the observed SN Ia rate. Recent effort has been devoted to the effects of introducing a distant tertiary to the binary system. The standard “Kozai-Lidov” mechanism can lead to high eccentricities of the binary WDs, which could lead to direct collisions or much efficient energy dissipation. Alternatively, we investigate the long-term evolution of the hierarchical quadruple systems, i.e. WD binary with a binary companion, which are basically unexplored, yet they should be numerous. We explore their interesting dynamics and find that the fraction of reaching high eccentricities is largely enhanced, which hints on a higher WD merger rate than predicted from triple systems with the same set of secular and non-secular effects considered. Considering the population of quadruple stellar systems, the quadruple scenario might contribute significantly to the overall rate of Ia SNe.

How does pollen versus seed dispersal affect niche evolution?

PubMed

Aguilée, Robin; Shaw, Frank H; Rousset, François; Shaw, Ruth G; Ronce, Ophélie

2013-03-01

In heterogeneous landscapes, the genetic and demographic consequences of dispersal influence the evolution of niche width. Unless pollen is limiting, pollen dispersal does not contribute directly to population growth. However, by disrupting local adaptation, it indirectly affects population dynamics. We compare the effect of pollen versus seed dispersal on the evolution of niche width in heterogeneous habitats, explicitly considering the feedback between maladaptation and demography. We consider two scenarios: the secondary contact of two subpopulations, in distinct, formerly isolated habitats, and the colonization of an empty habitat with dispersal between the new and ancestral habitat. With an analytical model, we identify critical levels of genetic variance leading to niche contraction (secondary contact scenario), or expansion (new habitat scenario). We confront these predictions with simulations where the genetic variance freely evolves. Niche contraction occurs when habitats are very different. It is faster as total gene flow increases or as pollen predominates in overall gene flow. Niche expansion occurs when habitat heterogeneity is not too high. Seed dispersal accelerates it, whereas pollen dispersal tends to retard it. In both scenarios very high seed dispersal leads to extinction. Overall, our results predict a wider niche for species dispersing seeds more than pollen. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Impeded Dark Matter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kopp, Joachim; Liu, Jia; Slatyer, Tracy

Here, we consider dark matter models in which the mass splitting between the dark matter particles and their annihilation products is tiny. Compared to the previously proposed Forbidden Dark Matter scenario, the mass splittings we consider are much smaller, and are allowed to be either positive or negative. To emphasize this modification, we dub our scenario \\Impeded Dark Matter". We also demonstrate that Impeded Dark Matter can be easily realized without requiring tuning of model parameters. For negative mass splitting, we demonstrate that the annihilation cross-section for Impeded Dark Matter depends linearly on the dark matter velocity or may evenmore » be kinematically forbidden, making this scenario almost insensitive to constraints from the cosmic microwave background and from observations of dwarf galaxies. Accordingly, it may be possible for Impeded Dark Matter to yield observable signals in clusters or the Galactic center, with no corresponding signal in dwarfs. Furthermore, for positive mass splitting, we show that the annihilation cross-section is suppressed by the small mass splitting, which helps light dark matter to survive increasingly stringent constraints from indirect searches. As specific realizations for Impeded Dark Matter, we introduce a model of vector dark matter from a hidden SU(2) sector, and a composite dark matter scenario based on a QCD-like dark sector.« less

Impeded Dark Matter

DOE PAGES

Kopp, Joachim; Liu, Jia; Slatyer, Tracy; ...

2016-12-12

Here, we consider dark matter models in which the mass splitting between the dark matter particles and their annihilation products is tiny. Compared to the previously proposed Forbidden Dark Matter scenario, the mass splittings we consider are much smaller, and are allowed to be either positive or negative. To emphasize this modification, we dub our scenario \\Impeded Dark Matter". We also demonstrate that Impeded Dark Matter can be easily realized without requiring tuning of model parameters. For negative mass splitting, we demonstrate that the annihilation cross-section for Impeded Dark Matter depends linearly on the dark matter velocity or may evenmore » be kinematically forbidden, making this scenario almost insensitive to constraints from the cosmic microwave background and from observations of dwarf galaxies. Accordingly, it may be possible for Impeded Dark Matter to yield observable signals in clusters or the Galactic center, with no corresponding signal in dwarfs. Furthermore, for positive mass splitting, we show that the annihilation cross-section is suppressed by the small mass splitting, which helps light dark matter to survive increasingly stringent constraints from indirect searches. As specific realizations for Impeded Dark Matter, we introduce a model of vector dark matter from a hidden SU(2) sector, and a composite dark matter scenario based on a QCD-like dark sector.« less

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

2008-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Banar, Mufide; Cokaygil, Zerrin; Ozkan, Aysun

Life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology was used to determine the optimum municipal solid waste (MSW) management strategy for Eskisehir city. Eskisehir is one of the developing cities of Turkey where a total of approximately 750 tons/day of waste is generated. An effective MSW management system is needed in this city since the generated MSW is dumped in an unregulated dumping site that has no liner, no biogas capture, etc. Therefore, five different scenarios were developed as alternatives to the current waste management system. Collection and transportation of waste, a material recovery facility (MRF), recycling, composting, incineration and landfilling processes weremore » considered in these scenarios. SimaPro7 libraries were used to obtain background data for the life cycle inventory. One ton of municipal solid waste of Eskisehir was selected as the functional unit. The alternative scenarios were compared through the CML 2000 method and these comparisons were carried out from the abiotic depletion, global warming, human toxicity, acidification, eutrophication and photochemical ozone depletion points of view. According to the comparisons and sensitivity analysis, composting scenario, S3, is the more environmentally preferable alternative. In this study waste management alternatives were investigated only on an environmental point of view. For that reason, it might be supported with other decision-making tools that consider the economic and social effects of solid waste management.« less

Real-Time Communication Support for Underwater Acoustic Sensor Networks †.

PubMed

Santos, Rodrigo; Orozco, Javier; Micheletto, Matias; Ochoa, Sergio F; Meseguer, Roc; Millan, Pere; Molina, And Carlos

2017-07-14

Underwater sensor networks represent an important and promising field of research due to the large diversity of underwater ubiquitous applications that can be supported by these networks, e.g., systems that deliver tsunami and oil spill warnings, or monitor submarine ecosystems. Most of these monitoring and warning systems require real-time communication in wide area networks that have a low density of nodes. The underwater communication medium involved in these networks is very harsh and imposes strong restrictions to the communication process. In this scenario, the real-time transmission of information is done mainly using acoustic signals, since the network nodes are not physically close. The features of the communication scenario and the requirements of the communication process represent major challenges for designers of both, communication protocols and monitoring and warning systems. The lack of models to represent these networks is the main stumbling block for the proliferation of underwater ubiquitous systems. This paper presents a real-time communication model for underwater acoustic sensor networks (UW-ASN) that are designed to cover wide areas with a low density of nodes, using any-to-any communication. This model is analytic, considers two solution approaches for scheduling the real-time messages, and provides a time-constraint analysis for the network performance. Using this model, the designers of protocols and underwater ubiquitous systems can quickly prototype and evaluate their solutions in an evolving way, in order to determine the best solution to the problem being addressed. The suitability of the proposal is illustrated with a case study that shows the performance of a UW-ASN under several initial conditions. This is the first analytic model for representing real-time communication in this type of network, and therefore, it opens the door for the development of underwater ubiquitous systems for several application scenarios.

A risk assessment of direct and indirect exposure to emissions from a proposed hazardous waste incinerator in Puerto Rico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hallinger, K.; Huggins, A.; Warner, L.

1995-12-31

An Indirect Exposure Assessment (IEA) was conducted, under USEPA`s RCRA Combustion Strategy, as part of the Part B permitting process for a proposed hazardous waste incinerator. The IEA involved identification of constituents of concern, emissions estimations, air dispersion and deposition modeling, evaluation of site-specific exposure pathways/scenarios, and food chain modeling in order to evaluate potential human health and environmental risks. The COMPDEP model was used to determine ambient ground level concentrations and dry and wet deposition rates of constituents of concern. The air modeling results were input into 50th percentile (Central) and 95th percentile (High-End) exposure scenarios which evaluated directmore » exposure via inhalation, dermal contact, and soil ingestion pathways, and indirect exposure through the food chain. The indirect pathway analysis considered the accumulation of constituents in plants and animals used as food sources by local inhabitants. Local food consumption data obtained from the Puerto Rico USDA were combined with realistic present-day and future-use exposure scenarios such as residential use, pineapple farming, and subsistence farming to obtain a comprehensive evaluation of risk, Overall risk was calculated using constituent doses and toxicity factors associated with the various routes of exposure. Risk values for each exposure pathway were summed to determine total carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic hazard to exposed individuals. A population risk assessment was also conducted in order to assess potential risks to the population surrounding the facility. Results of the assessment indicated no acute effects from constituents of concern, and a high-end excess lifetime cancer risk of approximately 6 in a million with dioxins (as 2,3,7,8-TCDD) and arsenic dominating the risk estimate.« less

Real-Time Communication Support for Underwater Acoustic Sensor Networks †

PubMed Central

Santos, Rodrigo; Orozco, Javier; Micheletto, Matias

2017-01-01

Underwater sensor networks represent an important and promising field of research due to the large diversity of underwater ubiquitous applications that can be supported by these networks, e.g., systems that deliver tsunami and oil spill warnings, or monitor submarine ecosystems. Most of these monitoring and warning systems require real-time communication in wide area networks that have a low density of nodes. The underwater communication medium involved in these networks is very harsh and imposes strong restrictions to the communication process. In this scenario, the real-time transmission of information is done mainly using acoustic signals, since the network nodes are not physically close. The features of the communication scenario and the requirements of the communication process represent major challenges for designers of both, communication protocols and monitoring and warning systems. The lack of models to represent these networks is the main stumbling block for the proliferation of underwater ubiquitous systems. This paper presents a real-time communication model for underwater acoustic sensor networks (UW-ASN) that are designed to cover wide areas with a low density of nodes, using any-to-any communication. This model is analytic, considers two solution approaches for scheduling the real-time messages, and provides a time-constraint analysis for the network performance. Using this model, the designers of protocols and underwater ubiquitous systems can quickly prototype and evaluate their solutions in an evolving way, in order to determine the best solution to the problem being addressed. The suitability of the proposal is illustrated with a case study that shows the performance of a UW-ASN under several initial conditions. This is the first analytic model for representing real-time communication in this type of network, and therefore, it opens the door for the development of underwater ubiquitous systems for several application scenarios. PMID:28708093

Understanding how police officers think about mental/emotional disturbance calls

PubMed Central

Watson, Amy C; Swartz, James; Bohrman, Casey; Kriegel, Liat S.; Draine, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

Police officers frequently respond to calls involving persons with mental illnesses and in doing so, they are key gatekeepers of access to mental health treatment as well as entry into the criminal justice system. Programs such as Crisis Intervention Teams (CIT) are being implemented across the United States and elsewhere to train officers to respond more effectively and facilitate access to mental health services when appropriate. These programs would benefit from a thorough understanding of these encounters from the perspective of police officers. We take as a premise that officers develop frames of reference or “schema” for understanding and responding to these encounters that are shaped by socialization, training, and their experience as police officers. In this study, we examine police officer schema of mental/emotional disturbance (M/EDP) calls. Qualitative interviews provided the foundation to develop the Needs on the Street Interview (NOSI) to tap officer schema of four types of M/EDP scenarios. The NOSI was administered to 147 officers in Chicago and Philadelphia. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was conducted separately for each scenario to examine groups of officers with different schema as well as predictors of schema group. For three of the four scenarios, officers were classified into a two category or schema model, for the fourth (crime reported) a three category model was supported. Schema groups tended to be differentiated by ratings of level of resistance/threat and substance use. Contrary to our expectations, CIT and law enforcement experience did not predict officer schema group. While the CIT model emphasizes de-escalation skills to reduce resistance and the need for officers to use force, CIT and other training programs may want to consider increasing content related to factors such as co-occurring substance use and managing resistance. PMID:24656216

A longitudinal simulation-based ethical-legal curriculum for otolaryngology residents.

PubMed

Fanous, Amanda; Rappaport, Jamie; Young, Meredith; Park, Yoon Soo; Manoukian, John; Nguyen, Lily H P

2017-11-01

To develop, implement, and evaluate a longitudinal, simulation-based ethics and legal curriculum designed specifically for otolaryngology residents. Otolaryngology residents were recruited to participate in a yearly half-day ethical-legal module, the curriculum of which spanned 4 years. Each module included: three simulated scenarios, small-group multisource feedback, and large-group debriefings. Scenarios involved encounters with standardized patients. Residents' ethical-legal knowledge was assessed pre- and postmodule with multiple-choice questions, and ethical reasoning was assessed by a variety of evaluators during the simulated scenario using a locally developed assessment tool. Participants completed an exit survey at the end of each module. Eighteen residents completed four modules from the academic years of 2008 to 2009 to 2011 to 2012. The first year was considered a pilot module, and data were collected for the following 3 years. Knowledge of legal issues improved significantly among residents (mean at pre = 3.40 and post = 4.60, P < 0.05). Residents' ethical reasoning skills also improved across years (mean 3.60/5 in 2009-2010, 3.76/5 in 2010-2011, and 4.33 in 2011-2012, P < 0.05). Survey results revealed a statistically significant self-perceived improvement in ethics reasoning skills (mean pre = 3.62, post = 4.86, P < 0.05). Participants reported that the curriculum was relevant to their practice (85%), that the debriefings were of high quality (83%), and that they would recommend this module to others (88%). To our knowledge, this is the first study exploring a longitudinal simulation-based ethical-legal curriculum tailored to otolaryngology-head and neck surgery residents. This educational program resulted in a both objective and subjective improvement in legal and ethics knowledge and skills. NA. Laryngoscope, 127:2501-2509, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Moisture content prediction in poultry litter using artificial intelligence techniques and Monte Carlo simulation to determine the economic yield from energy use.

PubMed

Rico-Contreras, José Octavio; Aguilar-Lasserre, Alberto Alfonso; Méndez-Contreras, Juan Manuel; López-Andrés, Jhony Josué; Cid-Chama, Gabriela

2017-11-01

The objective of this study is to determine the economic return of poultry litter combustion in boilers to produce bioenergy (thermal and electrical), as this biomass has a high-energy potential due to its component elements, using fuzzy logic to predict moisture and identify the high-impact variables. This is carried out using a proposed 7-stage methodology, which includes a statistical analysis of agricultural systems and practices to identify activities contributing to moisture in poultry litter (for example, broiler chicken management, number of air extractors, and avian population density), and thereby reduce moisture to increase the yield of the combustion process. Estimates of poultry litter production and heating value are made based on 4 different moisture content percentages (scenarios of 25%, 30%, 35%, and 40%), and then a risk analysis is proposed using the Monte Carlo simulation to select the best investment alternative and to estimate the environmental impact for greenhouse gas mitigation. The results show that dry poultry litter (25%) is slightly better for combustion, generating 3.20% more energy. Reducing moisture from 40% to 25% involves considerable economic investment due to the purchase of equipment to reduce moisture; thus, when calculating financial indicators, the 40% scenario is the most attractive, as it is the current scenario. Thus, this methodology proposes a technology approach based on the use of advanced tools to predict moisture and representation of the system (Monte Carlo simulation), where the variability and uncertainty of the system are accurately represented. Therefore, this methodology is considered generic for any bioenergy generation system and not just for the poultry sector, whether it uses combustion or another type of technology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design of relative trajectories for in orbit proximity operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Opromolla, Roberto; Fasano, Giancarmine; Rufino, Giancarlo; Grassi, Michele

2018-04-01

This paper presents an innovative approach to design relative trajectories suitable for close-proximity operations in orbit, by assigning high-level constraints regarding their stability, shape and orientation. Specifically, this work is relevant to space mission scenarios, e.g. formation flying, on-orbit servicing, and active debris removal, which involve either the presence of two spacecraft carrying out coordinated maneuvers, or a servicing/recovery spacecraft (chaser) performing monitoring, rendezvous and docking with respect to another space object (target). In the above-mentioned scenarios, an important aspect is the capability of reducing collision risks and of providing robust and accurate relative navigation solutions. To this aim, the proposed approach exploits a relative motion model relevant to two-satellite formations, and developed in mean orbit parameters, which takes the perturbation effect due to secular Earth oblateness, as well as the motion of the target along a small-eccentricity orbit, into account. This model is used to design trajectories which ensure safe relative motion, to minimize collision risks and relax control requirements, providing at the same time favorable conditions, in terms of target-chaser relative observation geometry for pose determination and relative navigation with passive or active electro-optical sensors on board the chaser. Specifically, three design strategies are proposed in the context of a space target monitoring scenario, considering as design cases both operational spacecraft and debris, characterized by highly variable shape, size and absolute rotational dynamics. The effectiveness of the proposed design approach in providing favorable observation conditions for target-chaser relative pose estimation is demonstrated within a simulation environment which reproduces the designed target-chaser relative trajectory, the operation of an active LIDAR installed on board the chaser, and pose estimation algorithms.

Measuring What People Value: A Comparison of “Attitude” and “Preference” Surveys

PubMed Central

Phillips, Kathryn A; Johnson, F Reed; Maddala, Tara

2002-01-01

Objective To compare and contrast methods and findings from two approaches to valuation used in the same survey: measurement of “attitudes” using simple rankings and ratings versus measurement of “preferences” using conjoint analysis. Conjoint analysis, a stated preference method, involves comparing scenarios composed of attribute descriptions by ranking, rating, or choosing scenarios. We explore possible explanations for our findings using focus groups conducted after the quantitative survey. Methods A self-administered survey, measuring attitudes and preferences for HIV tests, was conducted at HIV testing sites in San Francisco in 1999–2000 (n = 365, response rate=96 percent). Attitudes were measured and analyzed using standard approaches. Conjoint analysis scenarios were developed using a fractional factorial design and results analyzed using random effects probit models. We examined how the results using the two approaches were both similar and different. Results We found that “attitudes” and “preferences” were generally consistent, but there were some important differences. Although rankings based on the attitude and conjoint analysis surveys were similar, closer examination revealed important differences in how respondents valued price and attributes with “halo” effects, variation in how attribute levels were valued, and apparent differences in decision-making processes. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first study to compare attitude surveys and conjoint analysis surveys and to explore the meaning of the results using post-hoc focus groups. Although the overall findings for attitudes and preferences were similar, the two approaches resulted in some different conclusions. Health researchers should consider the advantages and limitations of both methods when determining how to measure what people value. PMID:12546291

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aagaard, B T; Graves, R W; Rodgers, A

We simulate long-period (T > 1.0-2.0 s) and broadband (T > 0.1 s) ground motions for 39 scenarios earthquakes (Mw 6.7-7.2) involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. For rupture on the Hayward fault we consider the effects of creep on coseismic slip using two different approaches, both of which reduce the ground motions compared with neglecting the influence of creep. Nevertheless, the scenario earthquakes generate strong shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area with about 50% of the urban area experiencing MMI VII or greater for the magnitude 7.0 scenario events. Long-period simulations of the 2007 Mw 4.18more » Oakland and 2007 Mw 4.5 Alum Rock earthquakes show that the USGS Bay Area Velocity Model version 08.3.0 permits simulation of the amplitude and duration of shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area, with the greatest accuracy in the Santa Clara Valley (San Jose area). The ground motions exhibit a strong sensitivity to the rupture length (or magnitude), hypocenter (or rupture directivity), and slip distribution. The ground motions display a much weaker sensitivity to the rise time and rupture speed. Peak velocities, peak accelerations, and spectral accelerations from the synthetic broadband ground motions are, on average, slightly higher than the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) ground-motion prediction equations. We attribute at least some of this difference to the relatively narrow width of the Hayward fault ruptures. The simulations suggest that the Spudich and Chiou (2008) directivity corrections to the NGA relations could be improved by including a dependence on the rupture speed and increasing the areal extent of rupture directivity with period. The simulations also indicate that the NGA relations may under-predict amplification in shallow sedimentary basins.« less

Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ho

2016-09-01

Understanding the effects of global climate change from both environmental and human health perspectives has gained great importance. Particularly, studies on the direct effect of temperature increase on future mortality have been conducted. However, few of those studies considered population changes, and although the world population is rapidly aging, no previous study considered the effect of society aging. Here we present a projection of future temperature-related mortality due to both climate and demographic changes in seven major cities of South Korea, a fast aging country, until 2100; we used the HadGEM3-RA model under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and the United Nations world population prospects under three fertility scenarios (high, medium, and low). The results showed markedly increased mortality in the elderly group, significantly increasing the overall future mortality. In 2090s, South Korea could experience a four- to six-time increase in temperature-related mortality compared to that during 1992-2010 under four different RCP scenarios and three different fertility variants, while the mortality is estimated to increase only by 0.5 to 1.5 times assuming no population aging. Therefore, not considering population aging may significantly underestimate temperature risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conjunction of wavelet transform and SOM-mutual information data pre-processing approach for AI-based Multi-Station nitrate modeling of watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nourani, Vahid; Andalib, Gholamreza; Dąbrowska, Dominika

2017-05-01

Accurate nitrate load predictions can elevate decision management of water quality of watersheds which affects to environment and drinking water. In this paper, two scenarios were considered for Multi-Station (MS) nitrate load modeling of the Little River watershed. In the first scenario, Markovian characteristics of streamflow-nitrate time series were proposed for the MS modeling. For this purpose, feature extraction criterion of Mutual Information (MI) was employed for input selection of artificial intelligence models (Feed Forward Neural Network, FFNN and least square support vector machine). In the second scenario for considering seasonality-based characteristics of the time series, wavelet transform was used to extract multi-scale features of streamflow-nitrate time series of the watershed's sub-basins to model MS nitrate loads. Self-Organizing Map (SOM) clustering technique which finds homogeneous sub-series clusters was also linked to MI for proper cluster agent choice to be imposed into the models for predicting the nitrate loads of the watershed's sub-basins. The proposed MS method not only considers the prediction of the outlet nitrate but also covers predictions of interior sub-basins nitrate load values. The results indicated that the proposed FFNN model coupled with the SOM-MI improved the performance of MS nitrate predictions compared to the Markovian-based models up to 39%. Overall, accurate selection of dominant inputs which consider seasonality-based characteristics of streamflow-nitrate process could enhance the efficiency of nitrate load predictions.

Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

2018-02-01

Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

Analysis of consistency of global net land-use change carbon emission scenario using offline vegetation model and earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

2010-12-01

For CMIP5 experiments, emissions scenarios data sets for climate models are prepared as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). IAMs also have depicted regional land-use scenarios based on the socioeconomic assumption of the future scenarios of RCPs. In the land-use harmonization project, gridded land-use transition data has been constructed from the regional IAMs future land-use scenarios which smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land-use based on HYDE 3 data and FAO wood harvest data. In this study, using the gridded transition land-use scenario data, global net CO2 emission from land-use change for each RCPs scenarios is evaluated with a offline version of terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool), utilizing a protocol to estimate carbon emission from deforested biomass considering delayed decomposition of product pools, and regrowth absorption from the secondary lands with abandoned agricultural lands. From the model output, effect of CO2 fertilization and land-use scenario itself on the emission is assessed to see the consistency of the scenarios. In addition, to see the effect of climate change and the climate-carbon feedback on terrestrial ecosystems, net land-use change CO2 emission is also evaluated with an earth system model, MIROC-ESM incorporating a DGVM with land-use change component. In the simulations with earth system model, RCP 6.0 scenario has been evaluated by model runs with and without land-use change forcing.

Deployment of Cesium Recovered from High Level Liquid Waste for Irradiation - Indian Scenario - 13128

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vincent, Tessy; Shah, J.G.; Kumar, Amar

2013-07-01

Recovery of Cs-137 from HLW and its utilisation as source pencil in place of Co-60 is vital for medical and sewage treatment applications in India. For separation of Cs, specific ion exchange resins as well as 'Calyx crown' solvent have been developed and synthesized indigenously. A flow sheet involving separation of Cs from acidic HLW using Ammonium Molybdo Phosphate (AMP) resins, recovery of Cs from the loaded AMP column by dissolving it in alkali, ion exchange purification of Cs rich alkaline solution using Resorcinol-Formaldehyde Poly condensate (RF) resins and its elution in cesium nitrate form was developed and demonstrated. Solventmore » extraction route employing 0.03 Molar, 1-3-octyl oxy Calyx (4) arene crown-6 in 30% isodecyl alcohol and dodecane was also established using mixer settlers. Cesium lithium borosilicate glass based formulations have been considered as a glass matrix for Cs irradiation pencils. While choosing this vitreous matrix, attributes addressing maximum possible Cs-137 loading, low glass pouring temperature to minimise Cs volatility, reasonably good mechanical strength and good chemical durability have been considered. Recovered cesium nitrate solution was vitrified along with glass additives in an induction heated metallic melter and subsequently poured into 12 numbers of Cs irradiation pencils positioned on turn-table equipped with the load cell. The complete cycle involving recovery of Cs from HLW followed by its conversion into Cs pencil was demonstrated. (authors)« less

Vulnerability of Hidropower Generation in Amazon's Tributaries Under Global Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Von Randow, R.; Siqueira, J. L., Jr.; Rodriguez, D. A.; Tomasella, J.; Floriano, L. E.

2014-12-01

The Brazilian energy sector is under continued expansion. The majority of energy power generation in the country is done through hydropower, which represents around 88% of the energy originated from renewable sources in the country. Still, only 10% of the high potential for production of the Amazon basin is currently availed, and this raises attention for the implantation of new hydropower plants in the region. When a hydropower plant is considered to be built, the natural characteristics of the region are taken into account, considering that the rainfall regime follows certain stationarity. However, under the possibility of global change, the expected capacity of the plants may be compromised. The objective of this study is to evaluate if the current hydropower plants of some Amazon River tributaries can maintain their functionality under global environmental change conditions. For that, based on the discharge data and hydropower information available by Brazilian National Agency of Water and Energy we will infer the energy potential of these hydropower dams for the historic period that will be compared with the energy potential for future discharge under global environmental change conditions. The future discharge will be generated by the Distributed Hydrological Model developed at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (MHD-INPE), driven by different climate change scenarios projected by regional and global atmospheric models, associated with land use scenarios projected by a dynamic land use model (LUCC-ME/INPE). MHD-INPE will be calibrated through observed discharges for 1970-1990 using current land use conditions, and will generate discharges for the period of 2000 to 2050. In addition, special attention will be given to the presence of secondary forest growth in the land use scenarios in order to identify the importance of considering this use in the modelling exercise, since that use is not usually considered in hydrological modelling studies.

On black widow evolutionary scenarios for binary neutron stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eichler, David; Levinson, Amir

1988-01-01

The scenario whereby the pulsar 1957 + 20 ablates its companion by soft gamma-ray synchrotron emission (Ruderman et al., 1988) is critically examined, with particular regard to how the outflowing material, beginning at photospheric temperatures, is heated through the cooling barrier to coronal temperatures. Assuming the conductivity to be at most the Spitzer value, this consideration is found to constrain the mass flux more than two orders of magnitude more severely than merely considering cooling near the sonic point. This would imply that the ablation scenario fails by a large margin, even if the emission from the pulsar is beamed along the orbital plane.

A comparison of fuel savings in the residential and commercial sectors generated by the installation of solar heating and cooling systems under three tax credit scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moden, R.

An analysis of expected energy savings between 1977 and 1980 under three different solar tax credit scenarios is presented. The results were obtained through the solar heating and cooling of buildings (SHACOB) commercialization model. This simulation provides projected savings of conventional fuels through the installation of solar heating and cooling systems on buildings in the residential and commercial sectors. The three scenarios analyzed considered the tax credits contained in the Windfall Profits Tax of April 1980, the National Tax Act of November 1978, and a case where no tax credit is in effect.

Energy Efficiency Appliance Standards: Where do we stand, how far can we go and how do we get there? An analysis across several economies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Letschert, Virginie E.; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; McNeil, Michael A.

This paper analyses several potential savings scenarios for minimum energy performance standard (MEPS) and comparable programs for governments participating i n the Super-efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment (SEAD) Initiative, of the Clean Energy Ministerial, which represent over 60% of primary energy consumption in the world. We compare projected energy savings from the main end uses in the residential sector using three energy efficiency scenarios: (1) recent achievements, (2) cost-effective saving potential, and (3) energy efficiency technical potential. The recent achievement scenario (1) evaluates the future impact of MEPS enacted or under development between 2010 and 2012. The cost-effective potential scenariomore » (2) identifies the maximum potential for energy efficiency that results in net benefits to the consumer. The best available technology scenario (3) re presents the full potential of energy efficiency considering best available technologies as candidates for MEPS and incentive programs. We use the Bottom Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS), developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in collaboration with the Collaborative Labelling and Appliances Standards Program (CLASP), to provide a consistent methodology to com pare the different scenarios. This paper focuses on the main end uses in the residential sector. The comparison of the three scenarios for each economy provides possible opportunities for scaling up current policies or implementing additional policies. This comparison across economies reveals country best practices as well as end uses that present the greatest additional potential savings. The paper describes areas where methodologies and additional policy instruments can increase penetration of energy efficient technologies. First , we summarize the barriers and provide remedial policy tools/best practices, such as techno-economic analysis, in response to each barriers that prevent economies from capturing the full cost-effective potentials of MEPS (Scenario 1 to 2). Then, we consider the possible complementary policy options, such as incentive pro grams, to reach the full technical potential of energy efficiency in the residential sector (Scenario 2 to 3).« less

Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lark, Murray

2015-04-01

At BGS, expert elicitation has been used to evaluate uncertainty of surveyed boundaries in several, common, geological scenarios. As a result, a 'collective' understanding of the issues surrounding each scenario has emerged. The work has provoked wider debate in three key areas: a) what can we do to resolve those scenarios where a 'consensus' of understanding cannot be achieved b) what does it mean for survey practices and subsequent use of maps in 3D models c) how do we communicate the 'collective' understanding of geological mapping (with or without consensus for specific scenarios). Previous work elicited expert judgement for uncertainty in six contrasting mapping scenarios. In five cases it was possible to arrive at a consensus model; in a sixth case experts with different experience (length of service, academic background) took very different views of the nature of the mapping problem. The scenario concerned identification of the boundary between two contrasting tills (one derived from Triassic source materials being red in colour; the other, derived from Jurassic materials being grey in colour). Initial debate during the elicitation identified that the colour contrast should provide some degree of confidence in locating the boundary via traditional auger-traverse survey methods. However, as the elicitation progressed, it became clear that the complexities of the relationship between the two Tills were not uniformly understood across the experts and the panel could not agree a consensus regarding the spatial uncertainty of the boundary. The elicitation process allowed a significant degree of structured knowledge-exchange between experts of differing backgrounds and was successful in identifying a measure of uncertainty for what was considered a contentious scenario. However, the findings have significant implications for a boundary-scenario that is widely mapped across the central regions of Great Britain. We will discuss our experience of the use of elicitation methodology and the implications of our results for further work at the BGS to quantify uncertainty in 2d and 3d products. In particular we will consider the impacts of surveyor 'experience' in how the elicitation process works.

[Education of people with type 2 diabetes through peers with diabetes: is it cost effective?].

PubMed

González, Lorena; Elgart, Jorge Federico; Gagliardino, Juan José

2015-12-29

Inadequate quality of care provided to people with type 2 diabetes mellitus, generates a significant socioeconomic burden and a serious public health problem. Diabetes education through peers with diabetes is an alternative to that provided by professional educators (traditional education) which achieves non-inferior results. However, there is little evidence of cost-effectiveness of education trough peers over traditional education. To evaluate cost-effectiveness of education of people with type 2 diabetes mellitus, during a year, by a team of professional educators (traditional education) versus education and support delivered by trained peers with diabetes. Cost-effectiveness analysis based on a randomized prospective clinical study conducted in the city of La Plata, including 199 people with type 2 diabetes mellitus, divided in two groups:, one receiving traditional education and another receiving the same education but delivered by peer educators with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Change in glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) was considered as a primary indicator of effectiveness and secondary indicators were others, such as body mass index, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol and triglyceride levels. The direct cost of each strategy was estimated based on resources used in the trial, evaluating three cost scenarios for peer education. The strength of the results was assessed by univariate sensitivity analysis. Cost per unit decrease (%) in HbA1c: traditional education: $2 621; peer education: $1 508, $1 779 y $2 071 for each of the three scenarios considered (scenario 1, scenario 2, scenario 3), respectively. For each $100 invested a decrease of 0.04% in the HbA1c with traditional education was achieved; and 0.07% in scenario 1; 0.06% in scenario 2 and 0.05% in scenario 3, with education delivered by peer educators. Sensitivity analysis showed the strength of the results. Education of type 2 diabetes mellitus patients through peers as a complement to control and treatment of the disease, is cost-effective compared to traditional education.

Scenario Planning to Identify Science Needs for the Management of Energy and Resource Development in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lassuy, D.

2013-12-01

The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is an intergovernmental science collaboration forum in Arctic Alaska (USA). NSSI has initiated a 'Scenario Planning' effort with the focal question: 'What is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?' With over 500 thousand square kilometers of land and sea, the area of the North Slope and adjacent seas is believed to have some of the largest oil, gas, and coal potential remaining in the United States, but it is also home to a diverse array of fish, wildlife, and plant resources that support a vibrant subsistence culture. Our scenario planning will involve a full and collaborative dialogue among a wide range of U.S. Arctic stakeholders, including Alaska Native subsistence users, local communities, academia, non-governmental organizations, and a variety of industries (oil and gas, mining, transportation, etc.) and government agencies (federal, state, local). The formulation of development scenarios and an understanding of their implications will provide a practical context for NSSI member agencies to make informed decisions about the research and monitoring that will be needed to sustain these resources and to plan for safe energy and resource development in the face of impending changes. The future of Arctic America is difficult to accurately predict, particularly in an era of intense pressures from both energy development and climate warming. However, it will almost surely be characterized by highly consequential and unprecedented changes. Complex and uncertain are appropriate descriptors of the Arctic and its future; and scenario planning has proven an effective tool to help engage diverse stakeholders in a focused dialogue and systematic thinking about plausible futures in complex and uncertain settings. The NSSI leadership recognized the critical need for this dialogue and has begun a scenario planning effort for the North Slope of Alaska and the adjacent Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. As currently designed, this NSSI scenario planning effort will encompass two broadly defined steps. We will engage local communities along with resource agencies, industry, non-governmental organizations, academia, and others with Arctic interests in exploring plausible future development activity (scenarios). Then we will undertake science- and traditional knowledge-informed explorations of the relevant research and monitoring that will be needed to detect, assess, and respond to the identified range of plausible development-driven changes on the North Slope and adjacent seas (strategies). The intent is for these strategies to then inform agency decisions about future investment in research and monitoring, and particularly to identify opportunities to collaborate in a manner that will benefit all involved parties. However, it is also important to note that the most important short- and long-term benefit of this scenario planning exercise may in fact be the strengthening of an involved and informed community of stakeholder participants, regardless of specific informational or strategic outcomes.

Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario

PubMed Central

Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M

2016-01-01

Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes. PMID:27733963

Surface extra-vehicular activity emergency scenario management: Tools, procedures, and geologically related implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zea, Luis; Diaz, Alejandro R.; Shepherd, Charles K.; Kumar, Ranganathan

2010-07-01

Extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) are an essential part of human space exploration, but involve inherently dangerous procedures which can put crew safety at risk during a space mission. To help mitigate this risk, astronauts' training programs spend substantial attention on preparing for surface EVA emergency scenarios. With the help of two Mars Desert Research Station (MDRS) crews (61 and 65), wearing simulated spacesuits, the most important of these emergency scenarios were examined at three different types of locations that geologically and environmentally resemble lunar and Martian landscapes. These three platforms were analyzed geologically as well as topographically (utilizing a laser range finder with slope estimation capabilities and a slope determination software). Emergency scenarios were separated into four main groups: (1) suit issues, (2) general physiological, (3) attacks and (4) others. Specific tools and procedures were developed to address each scenario. The tools and processes were tested in the field under Mars-analog conditions with the suited subjects for feasibility and speed of execution.

User Interaction Design for a Home-Based Telecare System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raptis, Spyros; Tsiakoulis, Pirros; Chalamandaris, Aimilios; Karabetsos, Sotiris

This paper presents the design of the user-interaction component of a home-based telecare system for congestive heart failure patients. It provides a short overview of the overall system and offers details on the different interaction types supported by the system. Interacting with the user occurs either as part of a scheduled procedure or as a consequence of identifying or predicting a potentially hazardous deterioration of the patients' health state. The overall logic of the interaction is structured around event-scenario associations, where a scenario consists of concrete actions to be performed, some of which may involve the patient. A key objective in this type of interaction that it is very simple, intuitive and short, involving common everyday objects and familiar media such as speech.

Environmental Risk Evaluation System – An Approach to Ranking Risk of Ocean Energy Development on Coastal and Estuarine Environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Copping, Andrea E.; Hanna, Luke A.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

Deployment and operation of ocean energy devices does not represent the first foray into industrialization of the oceans; shipping, nearshore development, waste disposal, subsea mining, oil and gas extraction, and large-scale commercial fishing all coexist in various states of equilibrium with the marine environment. In most cases these industries were developed without a clear understanding of the likely outcomes of large-scale development. In virtually every country where the harvest of ocean energy is emerging, regulators and stakeholders require that the industry examine potential effects of devices, minimize the footprint of effects, and provide management measures that either avoid the impactsmore » or mitigate to further reduce the residual impacts. The ERES analysis is based on scenarios that are consistent with sequences of events that lead to adverse impacts, distinguishing between episodic, intermittent, and chronic risks. In the context of ocean energy development, an episodic scenario might involve the exceedingly rare but potentially devastating event of an oil spill from vessels caused by the presence of the device, while vulnerable receptors are present; understanding the risk of such a scenario involves determining the probability of the occurrence by examining factors such as the petroleum content of ocean energy devices, the vessel traffic volume and the proximity of shipping lanes to the ocean energy devices, the reliability of the control measures to avoid an episodic event, and the likely presence of seabirds, marine mammals, or fish that may be affected by oil. In contrast, chronic risk scenarios involve events or circumstances that are continuous, so that risk characterization involves assessing only the severity of the consequences. An example of a chronic risk scenario might be the toxicity to marine organisms due to low-level chemical releases from anti-biofouling paints and coatings that may be used on devices, and the effect that the level of toxicity may have on marine flora and fauna. Between these two extremes are intermittent events, such as encounters between fish and rotating tidal turbine blades that will occur only when fish are present and the tidal device is turning. A key feature of understanding risk is describing the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of an episodic, intermittent, or chronic event, as well as the uncertainty of the resulting consequences.« less

Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

2016-08-01

The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand management scenario. Finally, it will be shown that applying the Meta scenario will improve the water resources from sustainably.

ACC/AATS/AHA/ASE/ASNC/SCAI/SCCT/STS 2016 Appropriate Use Criteria for Coronary Revascularization in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes : A Report of the American College of Cardiology Appropriate Use Criteria Task Force, American Association for Thoracic Surgery, American Heart Association, American Society of Echocardiography, American Society of Nuclear Cardiology, Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions, Society of Cardiovascular Computed Tomography, and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons.

PubMed

Patel, Manesh R; Calhoon, John H; Dehmer, Gregory J; Grantham, James Aaron; Maddox, Thomas M; Maron, David J; Smith, Peter K

2017-04-01

The American College of Cardiology, Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions, Society of Thoracic Surgeons, and American Association for Thoracic Surgery, along with key specialty and subspecialty societies, have completed a 2-part revision of the appropriate use criteria (AUC) for coronary revascularization. In prior coronary revascularization AUC documents, indications for revascularization in acute coronary syndromes (ACS) and stable ischemic heart disease were combined into 1 document. To address the expanding clinical indications for coronary revascularization, and in an effort to align the subject matter with the most current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines, the new AUC for coronary artery revascularization were separated into 2 documents addressing ACS and stable ischemic heart disease individually. This document presents the AUC for ACS. Clinical scenarios were developed to mimic patient presentations encountered in everyday practice and included information on symptom status, presence of clinical instability or ongoing ischemic symptoms, prior reperfusion therapy, risk level as assessed by noninvasive testing, fractional flow reserve testing, and coronary anatomy. This update provides a reassessment of clinical scenarios that the writing group felt to be affected by significant changes in the medical literature or gaps from prior criteria. The methodology used in this update is similar to the initial document but employs the recent modifications in the methods for developing AUC, most notably, alterations in the nomenclature for appropriate use categorization. A separate, independent rating panel scored the clinical scenarios on a scale of 1 to 9. Scores of 7 to 9 indicate that revascularization is considered appropriate for the clinical scenario presented. Scores of 1 to 3 indicate that revascularization is considered rarely appropriate for the clinical scenario, whereas scores in the mid-range (4 to 6) indicate that coronary revascularization may be appropriate for the clinical scenario. Seventeen clinical scenarios were developed by a writing committee and scored by the rating panel: 10 were identified as appropriate, 6 as may be appropriate, and 1 as rarely appropriate. As seen with the prior coronary revascularization AUC, revascularization in clinical scenarios with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were considered appropriate. Likewise, clinical scenarios with unstable angina and intermediate- or high-risk features were deemed appropriate. Additionally, the management of nonculprit artery disease and the timing of revascularization are now also rated. The primary objective of the AUC is to provide a framework for the assessment of practice patterns that will hopefully improve physician decision making.

Hydrogen production by the solar-powered hybrid sulfur process: Analysis of the integration of the CSP and chemical plants in selected scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberatore, Raffaele; Lanchi, Michela; Turchetti, Luca

2016-05-01

The Hybrid Sulfur (HyS) is a water splitting process for hydrogen production powered with high temperature nuclear heat and electric power; among the numerous thermo-chemical and thermo-electro-chemical cycles proposed in the literature, such cycle is considered to have a particularly high potential also if powered by renewable energy. SOL2HY2 (Solar to Hydrogen Hybrid Cycles) is a 3 year research project, co-funded by the Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (FCH JU). A significant part of the project activities are devoted to the analysis and optimization of the integration of the solar power plant with the chemical, hydrogen production plant. This work reports a part of the results obtained in such research activity. The analysis presented in this work builds on previous process simulations used to determine the energy requirements of the hydrogen production plant in terms of electric power, medium (<550°C) and high (>550°C) temperature heat. For the supply of medium temperature (MT) heat, a parabolic trough CSP plant using molten salts as heat transfer and storage medium is considered. A central receiver CSP (Concentrated Solar Power) plant is considered to provide high temperature (HT) heat, which is only needed for sulfuric acid decomposition. Finally, electric power is provided by a power block included in the MT solar plant and/or drawn from the grid, depending on the scenario considered. In particular, the analysis presented here focuses on the medium temperature CSP plant, possibly combined with a power block. Different scenarios were analysed by considering plants with different combinations of geographical location and sizing criteria.

The Effect of Differences in Day and Night Lighting Distributions on Drivers' Speed Perception.

PubMed

Kim, Jonathan D; Perrone, John A; Isler, Robert B

2017-06-01

Previous research has shown that changes to contrast levels in the visual environment caused by fog can affect drivers' perceptions of speed. It is not easy, however, to extrapolate these results to other driving scenarios in which contrast is affected, such as during nighttime driving, because the measure of contrast is more complex when considering factors such as the illumination provided by headlights. Therefore, we investigated the differences in lighting distribution patterns between day- and nighttime driving on speed perception using prerendered 3D scenarios representing driving on a rural road. A two-alternative forced-choice design based on the method of constant stimuli was utilised, with 32 participants viewing a series of pairs of scenarios (day vs. night driving) from a driver's perspective while indicating for each pair whether the second scenario was faster or slower than the first scenario. Our results indicated that speed discrimination accuracy was minimally affected by changes in lighting distribution patterns between day and night.

Improved battery parameter estimation method considering operating scenarios for HEV/EV applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Jufeng; Xia, Bing; Shang, Yunlong

This study presents an improved battery parameter estimation method based on typical operating scenarios in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Compared with the conventional estimation methods, the proposed method takes both the constant-current charging and the dynamic driving scenarios into account, and two separate sets of model parameters are estimated through different parts of the pulse-rest test. The model parameters for the constant-charging scenario are estimated from the data in the pulse-charging periods, while the model parameters for the dynamic driving scenario are estimated from the data in the rest periods, and the length of the fitted datasetmore » is determined by the spectrum analysis of the load current. In addition, the unsaturated phenomenon caused by the long-term resistor-capacitor (RC) network is analyzed, and the initial voltage expressions of the RC networks in the fitting functions are improved to ensure a higher model fidelity. Simulation and experiment results validated the feasibility of the developed estimation method.« less

Improved battery parameter estimation method considering operating scenarios for HEV/EV applications

DOE PAGES

Yang, Jufeng; Xia, Bing; Shang, Yunlong; ...

2016-12-22

This study presents an improved battery parameter estimation method based on typical operating scenarios in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Compared with the conventional estimation methods, the proposed method takes both the constant-current charging and the dynamic driving scenarios into account, and two separate sets of model parameters are estimated through different parts of the pulse-rest test. The model parameters for the constant-charging scenario are estimated from the data in the pulse-charging periods, while the model parameters for the dynamic driving scenario are estimated from the data in the rest periods, and the length of the fitted datasetmore » is determined by the spectrum analysis of the load current. In addition, the unsaturated phenomenon caused by the long-term resistor-capacitor (RC) network is analyzed, and the initial voltage expressions of the RC networks in the fitting functions are improved to ensure a higher model fidelity. Simulation and experiment results validated the feasibility of the developed estimation method.« less

Optimized bioregenerative space diet selection with crew choice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vicens, Carrie; Wang, Carolyn; Olabi, Ammar; Jackson, Peter; Hunter, Jean

2003-01-01

Previous studies on optimization of crew diets have not accounted for choice. A diet selection model with crew choice was developed. Scenario analyses were conducted to assess the feasibility and cost of certain crew preferences, such as preferences for numerous-desserts, high-salt, and high-acceptability foods. For comparison purposes, a no-choice and a random-choice scenario were considered. The model was found to be feasible in terms of food variety and overall costs. The numerous-desserts, high-acceptability, and random-choice scenarios all resulted in feasible solutions costing between 13.2 and 17.3 kg ESM/person-day. Only the high-sodium scenario yielded an infeasible solution. This occurred when the foods highest in salt content were selected for the crew-choice portion of the diet. This infeasibility can be avoided by limiting the total sodium content in the crew-choice portion of the diet. Cost savings were found by reducing food variety in scenarios where the preference bias strongly affected nutritional content.

Effects on Air Pollution and Regional Climate of Producing and Using Hydrogen in Fuel Cells in all U.S. OnroadVehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, M. Z.; Colella, W. G.; Golden, D. M.

2004-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the potential effects on U.S. air pollution and regional climate of switching the current U.S. fleet of onroad motor vehicles to hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, where hydrogen was produced by (1) steam-reforming of methane, (2) wind energy, or (3) coal gasification. An additional scenario in which the U.S. fleet was switched to gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles was also examined. The model used was GATOR-GCMOM, a global-through-urban-scale nested and parallelized gas, aerosol, transport, radiation, general-circulation, mesoscale, and ocean model. U.S. emission data for the baseline case were obtained from the U.S. National Emission Inventory, which considers 370,000 stack and fugitive sources, 250,000 area sources, and 1700 categories of onroad and nonroad vehicular sources (including motorcycles, passenger vehicles, trucks, recreational vehicles, construction vehicles, farm vehicles, industrial vehicles, etc.). Emission inventories for each of the three hydrogen scenarios were prepared following a process chain analysis that accounted for energy inputs and pollution outputs during all stages of hydrogen and fossil-fuel production, distribution, storage, and end-use. Emitted pollutants accounted for included CO, CO2, H2, H2O, CH4, speciated ROGs, NOx, NH3, SOx, and speciated particulate matter. Results from the first scenario suggest that switching vehicles in the U.S. to hydrogen produced by steam-reforming of methane may reduce emission of NOx, reactive hydrocarbons, CO, CO2, BC, NO3-, and NH4+, but increase CH4, H2, and SO2 (slightly).The switch may also decrease O3 over most of the U.S. but short-term near-surfaces increases may occur over low-vegetated cities (e.g., in Los Angeles and along the Boston-Washington corridor) due to loss of NOx that otherwise titrates O3. The switch is also estimated to decrease PAN, HCHO, and several other pollutants formed in the atmosphere. Isoprene may increase since fewer oxidants (OH, O3) will be available to destroy it. Results for the scenarios involving hydrogen from wind and coal gasification, and from the hybrid scenario will also be discussed, as will regional climate effects (including effects of H2O). Findings to date suggest that, even under a worst-case scenario of 10% hydrogen leakage, the conversion of the current fleet to hydrogen-fuel cell vehicles, where hydrogen is generated by steam-reforming of methane, may result in a measurable improvement in U.S. air quality.

Collision-model approach to steering of an open driven qubit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyer, Konstantin; Luoma, Kimmo; Strunz, Walter T.

2018-03-01

We investigate quantum steering of an open quantum system by measurements on its environment in the framework of collision models. As an example we consider a coherently driven qubit dissipatively coupled to a bath. We construct local nonadaptive and adaptive as well as nonlocal measurement scenarios specifying explicitly the measured observable on the environment. Our approach shows transparently how the conditional evolution of the open system depends on the type of the measurement scenario and the measured observables. These can then be optimized for steering. The nonlocal measurement scenario leads to maximal violation of the used steering inequality at zero temperature. Further, we investigate the robustness of the constructed scenarios against thermal noise. We find generally that steering becomes harder at higher temperatures. Surprisingly, the system can be steered even when bipartite entanglement between the system and individual subenvironments vanishes.

Emergy Analysis and Sustainability Efficiency Analysis of Different Crop-Based Biodiesel in Life Cycle Perspective

PubMed Central

Ren, Jingzheng; Manzardo, Alessandro; Mazzi, Anna; Fedele, Andrea; Scipioni, Antonio

2013-01-01

Biodiesel as a promising alternative energy resource has been a hot spot in chemical engineering nowadays, but there is also an argument about the sustainability of biodiesel. In order to analyze the sustainability of biodiesel production systems and select the most sustainable scenario, various kinds of crop-based biodiesel including soybean-, rapeseed-, sunflower-, jatropha- and palm-based biodiesel production options are studied by emergy analysis; soybean-based scenario is recognized as the most sustainable scenario that should be chosen for further study in China. DEA method is used to evaluate the sustainability efficiencies of these options, and the biodiesel production systems based on soybean, sunflower, and palm are considered as DEA efficient, whereas rapeseed-based and jatropha-based scenarios are needed to be improved, and the improved methods have also been specified. PMID:23766723

Understanding Patterns for System-of-Systems Integration

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

would be completely newly constructed. 2. Brownfield : there exists something, but we can (in principle) modify the realization of it. Here access to...systems (SoS constitu- ents). If we consider again the enterprise software infrastructure introduced above, a Brownfield scenario occurs in a SoS...context if the company did initially build its own SoS that now must be modified (e.g., by introducing an ESB5 backbone). A Brownfield scenario also

A Review of the IEE's Involvement in Academic Gaming.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ellington, H. I.; And Others

In partnership with the Institute of Technology in Aberdeen, the Institution of Electrical Engineers (IEE) has pioneered the development of a range of highly sophisticated simulation games and case studies based on realistic engineering scenarios for use in secondary and higher education and industrial training. The initial involvement of IEE in…

A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

2013-12-01

Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more frequent replenishment with that of implementation cost. We determine that a business as usual scenario, where no adaptation is implemented, would lead to an average beach recession of 12.02 meters and a maximum beach recession of 33.23 meters during the period of 2010-2100. The best adaptation option modeled was a fixed replenishment of 5 meters every 20 years leading to 4 replenishment events with an average beach recession of 2.99 meters and a maximum beach recession of 15.02 meters during the period of 2010-2100. The presented simulations explicitly address the uncertainty of future impacts due to sea level rise and storm surge and show a range of options that could be considered by a local council to meet their policy objectives. The simulation runs provide managers the ability to consider the utility of various adaptation options and the timing and costs of implementation. Such information provides an evidence-based practice to decision-making and allows policy makers to transparently make decisions based on best estimates of modeled climate change.

Designing Agent Collectives For Systems With Markovian Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolpert, David H.; Lawson, John W.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The "Collective Intelligence" (COIN) framework concerns the design of collectives of agents so that as those agents strive to maximize their individual utility functions, their interaction causes a provided "world" utility function concerning the entire collective to be also maximized. Here we show how to extend that framework to scenarios having Markovian dynamics when no re-evolution of the system from counter-factual initial conditions (an often expensive calculation) is permitted. Our approach transforms the (time-extended) argument of each agent's utility function before evaluating that function. This transformation has benefits in scenarios not involving Markovian dynamics, in particular scenarios where not all of the arguments of an agent's utility function are observable. We investigate this transformation in simulations involving both linear and quadratic (nonlinear) dynamics. In addition, we find that a certain subset of these transformations, which result in utilities that have low "opacity (analogous to having high signal to noise) but are not "factored" (analogous to not being incentive compatible), reliably improve performance over that arising with factored utilities. We also present a Taylor Series method for the fully general nonlinear case.

Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

2013-04-01

Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process of the development of the climate scenarios; *) users are involved already in the early phases of the development of new scenarios, among others in the following way: **) workshops on users' requirements to check whether they have changed and to get more information; **) feedback group of users to get more detailed feedback on the modes of communication; **) newsletter with information on the progress and procedures to be followed and separate workshops for researchers and policy makers with different levels of detail; **) projects together with impact researchers: tailoring of data and in order to be able to present impact information consistent with the climate scenarios much earlier. During the presentation more detailed information will be given on the interaction with users.

Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se; KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications; Ekener, Elisabeth

To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach,more » and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.« less

A new large initial condition ensemble to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderson, B. M.; Tebaldi, C.; Knutti, R.; Oleson, K. W.

2014-12-01

It has recently been demonstrated that when considering timescales of up to 50 years, natural variability may play an equal role to anthropogenic forcing on subcontinental trends for a variety of climate indicators. Thus, for many questions assessing climate impacts on such time and spatial scales, it has become clear that a significant number of ensemble members may be required to produce robust statistics (and especially so for extreme events). However, large ensemble experiments to date have considered the role of variability in a single scenario, leaving uncertain the relationship between the forced climate trajectory and the variability about that path. To address this issue, we present a new, publicly available, 15 member initial condition ensemble of 21st century climate projections for the RCP 4.5 scenario using the CESM1.1 Earth System Model, which we propose as a companion project to the existing 40 member CESM large ensemble which uses the higher greenhouse gas emission future of RCP8.5. This provides a valuable data set for assessing what societal and ecological impacts might be avoided through a moderate mitigation strategy in contrast to a fossil fuel intensive future. We present some early analyses of these combined ensembles to assess to what degree the climate variability can be considered to combine linearly with the underlying forced response. In regions where there is no detectable relationship between the mean state and the variability about the mean trajectory, then linear assumptions can be trivially exploited to utilize a single ensemble or control simulation to characterize the variability in any scenario of interest. We highlight regions where there is a detectable nonlinearity in extreme event frequency, how far in the future they will be manifested and propose mechanisms to account for these effects.

Future efficiency of run of the river hydropower schemes based on climate change scenarios: case study in UK catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasten Zapata, Ernesto; Moggridge, Helen; Jones, Julie; Widmann, Martin

2017-04-01

Run-of-the-River (ROR) hydropower schemes are expected to be importantly affected by climate change as they rely in the availability of river flow to generate energy. As temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future, the hydrological cycle will also undergo changes. Therefore, climate models based on complex physical atmospheric interactions have been developed to simulate future climate scenarios considering the atmosphere's greenhouse gas concentrations. These scenarios are classified according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that are generated according to the concentration of greenhouse gases. This study evaluates possible scenarios for selected ROR hydropower schemes within the UK, considering three different RCPs: 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2100 relative to pre-industrial values. The study sites cover different climate, land cover, topographic and hydropower scheme characteristics representative of the UK's heterogeneity. Precipitation and temperature outputs from state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Euro-CORDEX project are used as input for a HEC-HMS hydrological model to simulate the future river flow available. Both uncorrected and bias-corrected RCM simulations are analyzed. The results of this project provide an insight of the possible effects of climate change towards the generation of power from the ROR hydropower schemes according to the different RCP scenarios and contrasts the results obtained from uncorrected and bias-corrected RCMs. This analysis can aid on the adaptation to climate change as well as the planning of future ROR schemes in the region.