An economic evaluation of alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA

DOE PAGES

Oladosu, Gbadebo

2017-05-03

Energy market conditions have shifted dramatically since the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS1 in 2005; RFS2 in 2007) were enacted. The USA has transitioned from an increasing dependence on oil imports to abundant domestic oil production. In addition, increases in the use of ethanol, the main biofuel currently produced in the USA, is now limited by the blend wall constraint. Given this, the current study evaluates alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA, accounting for changes in market conditions. The analysis is performed with a general equilibrium model that reflects the structure of the USA biofuel market as the transitionmore » to advanced biofuel begins. Results suggest that ethanol consumption would increase, albeit slowly, if current biofuel deployment rates of about 10% are maintained as persistently lower oil prices lead to a gradual increase in the consumption of liquid transportation fuels. Without the blend wall constraint, this study finds that the overall economic impact of a full implementation of the USA RFS2 policy is largely neutral before 2022. However, the economic impacts become slightly negative under the blend wall constraint since more expensive bio-hydrocarbons are needed to meet the RFS2 mandates. Results for a scenario with reduced advanced biofuel deployment based on current policy plans show near neutral economic impacts up to 2027. This scenario is also consistent with another scenario where the volume of bio-hydrocarbons deployed is reduced to adjust for its higher cost and energy content relative to deploying the mandated RFS2 advanced biofuel volumes as ethanol. The important role of technological change is demonstrated under pioneer and accelerated technology scenarios, with the latter leading to neutral or positive economic effects up to 2023 under most blend wall scenarios. Here, all scenarios evaluated in this study are found to have positive long-term economic benefits for the USA economy.« less

Graphical Means for Inspecting Qualitative Models of System Behaviour

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bouwer, Anders; Bredeweg, Bert

2010-01-01

This article presents the design and evaluation of a tool for inspecting conceptual models of system behaviour. The basis for this research is the Garp framework for qualitative simulation. This framework includes modelling primitives, such as entities, quantities and causal dependencies, which are combined into model fragments and scenarios.…

Impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

2013-07-01

The prospective future adoption of molecular hydrogen (H2) to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question of whether the adoption would have adverse effects on the stratospheric ozone. The possibility of undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on the stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers) model. Since future growth is highly uncertain, we evaluate the impact of two world evolution scenarios, one based on an IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) high-emitting scenario (A1FI) and the other on an IPCC low-emitting scenario (B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the evolution growth scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two boundary scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is much smaller than the increases in 2050 stratospheric ozone projected, as stratospheric ozone is expected to recover due to the limits in ozone depleting substance emissions imposed in the Montreal Protocol.

The impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

2012-08-01

The prospective future adoption of hydrogen to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question whether the adoption would have adverse effects on stratospheric ozone. The possibility of these undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART chemical transport model. Since future growth is highly uncertain we evaluate the impact for two world evolution scenarios, one based on a high emitting scenario (IPCC A1FI) and the other on a low emitting scenario (IPCC B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario the world evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the same world evolution scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two bounding scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is much smaller than the increases in 2050 stratospheric ozone expected as stratospheric ozone recovers due to the limits in ozone depleting substance emissions imposed in the Montreal Protocol.

Rehabilitation-Oriented Serious Game Development and Evaluation Guidelines for Musculoskeletal Disorders.

PubMed

Idriss, Mohamad; Tannous, Halim; Istrate, Dan; Perrochon, Anaick; Salle, Jean-Yves; Ho Ba Tho, Marie-Christine; Dao, Tien-Tuan

2017-07-04

The progress in information and communication technology (ICT) led to the development of a new rehabilitation technique called "serious game for functional rehabilitation." Previous works have shown that serious games can be used for general health and specific disease management. However, there is still lack of consensus on development and evaluation guidelines. It is important to note that the game performance depends on the designed scenario. The objective of this work was to develop specific game scenarios and evaluate them with a panel of musculoskeletal patients to propose game development and evaluation guidelines. A two-stage workflow was proposed using determinant framework. The development guideline includes the selection of three-dimensional (3D) computer graphics technologies and tools, the modeling of physical aspects, the design of rehabilitation scenarios, and the implementation of the proposed scenarios. The evaluation guideline consists of the definition of evaluation metrics, the execution of the evaluation campaign, the analysis of user results and feedbacks, and the improvement of the designed game. The case study for musculoskeletal disorders on the healthy control and patient groups showed the usefulness of these guidelines and associated games. All participants enjoyed the 2 developed games (football and object manipulation), and found them challenging and amusing. In particular, some healthy subjects increased their score when enhancing the level of difficulty. Furthermore, there were no risks and accidents associated with the execution of these games. It is expected that with the proven effectiveness of the proposed guidelines and associated games, this new rehabilitation game may be translated into clinical routine practice for the benefit of patients with musculoskeletal disorders. ©Mohamad Idriss, Halim Tannous, Dan Istrate, Anaick Perrochon, Jean-Yves Salle, Marie-Christine Ho Ba Tho, Tien-Tuan Dao. Originally published in JMIR Serious Games (http://games.jmir.org), 04.07.2017.

Rehabilitation-Oriented Serious Game Development and Evaluation Guidelines for Musculoskeletal Disorders

PubMed Central

Istrate, Dan; Perrochon, Anaick; Salle, Jean-Yves; Ho Ba Tho, Marie-Christine

2017-01-01

Background The progress in information and communication technology (ICT) led to the development of a new rehabilitation technique called “serious game for functional rehabilitation.” Previous works have shown that serious games can be used for general health and specific disease management. However, there is still lack of consensus on development and evaluation guidelines. It is important to note that the game performance depends on the designed scenario. Objective The objective of this work was to develop specific game scenarios and evaluate them with a panel of musculoskeletal patients to propose game development and evaluation guidelines. Methods A two-stage workflow was proposed using determinant framework. The development guideline includes the selection of three-dimensional (3D) computer graphics technologies and tools, the modeling of physical aspects, the design of rehabilitation scenarios, and the implementation of the proposed scenarios. The evaluation guideline consists of the definition of evaluation metrics, the execution of the evaluation campaign, the analysis of user results and feedbacks, and the improvement of the designed game. Results The case study for musculoskeletal disorders on the healthy control and patient groups showed the usefulness of these guidelines and associated games. All participants enjoyed the 2 developed games (football and object manipulation), and found them challenging and amusing. In particular, some healthy subjects increased their score when enhancing the level of difficulty. Furthermore, there were no risks and accidents associated with the execution of these games. Conclusions It is expected that with the proven effectiveness of the proposed guidelines and associated games, this new rehabilitation game may be translated into clinical routine practice for the benefit of patients with musculoskeletal disorders. PMID:28676468

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Important Parameters of Nitrogen Nitrification and Denitrification under Model and Scenario Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Chen, Z.; Shi, L.; Zhu, Y.; Yang, J.

2017-12-01

Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. While global sensitivity analysis is a vital tool for identifying the parameters important to nitrogen reactive transport, conventional global sensitivity analysis only considers parametric uncertainty. This may result in inaccurate selection of important parameters, because parameter importance may vary under different models and modeling scenarios. By using a recently developed variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters with simultaneous consideration of parametric uncertainty, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. In a numerical example of nitrogen reactive transport modeling, a combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture leads to a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models are used to evaluate reduction functions used for calculating actual rates of nitrification and denitrification. The model uncertainty is tangled with scenario uncertainty, as the reduction functions depend on soil temperature and moisture content. The results of sensitivity analysis show that parameter importance varies substantially between different models and modeling scenarios, which may lead to inaccurate selection of important parameters if model and scenario uncertainties are not considered. This problem is avoided by using the new method of sensitivity analysis in the context of model averaging and scenario averaging. The new method of sensitivity analysis can be applied to other problems of contaminant transport modeling when model uncertainty and/or scenario uncertainty are present.

Evaluating landfill aftercare strategies: A life cycle assessment approach.

PubMed

Turner, David A; Beaven, Richard P; Woodman, Nick D

2017-05-01

This study investigates the potential impacts caused by the loss of active environmental control measures during the aftercare period of landfill management. A combined mechanistic solute flow model and life cycle assessment (LCA) approach was used to evaluate the potential impacts of leachate emissions over a 10,000year time horizon. A continuum of control loss possibilities occurring at different times and for different durations were investigated for four different basic aftercare scenarios, including a typical aftercare scenario involving a low permeability cap and three accelerated aftercare scenarios involving higher initial infiltration rates. Assuming a 'best case' where control is never lost, the largest potential impacts resulted from the typical aftercare scenario. The maximum difference between potential impacts from the 'best case' and the 'worst case', where control fails at the earliest possible point and is never reinstated, was only a fourfold increase. This highlights potential deficiencies in standard life cycle impact assessment practice, which are discussed. Nevertheless, the results show how the influence of active control loss on the potential impacts of landfilling varies considerably depending on the aftercare strategy used and highlight the importance that leachate treatment efficiencies have upon impacts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential effects of climate change on inland glacial lakes and implications for lake-dependent biota in Wisconsin: final report April 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Walker, John F.; Kenow, Kevin P.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Garrison, Paul J.; Hanson, Paul C.; Hunt, Randall J.

2013-01-01

F statewide, and an increase in precipitation of 1”–2”. However, summer precipitation in the northern part of the state is expected to be less and winter precipitation will be greater. By the end of the 21st century, the magnitude of changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to intensify. Such climatic changes have altered, and would further alter hydrological, chemical, and physical properties of inland lakes. Lake-dependent wildlife sensitive to changes in water quality, are particularly susceptible to lake quality-associated habitat changes and are likely to suffer restrictions to current breeding distributions under some climate change scenarios. We have selected the common loon (Gavia immer) to serve as a sentinel lake-dependent piscivorous species to be used in the development of a template for linking primary lake-dependent biota endpoints (e.g., decline in productivity and/or breeding range contraction) to important lake quality indicators. In the current project, we evaluate how changes in freshwater habitat quality (specifically lake clarity) may impact common loon lake occupancy in Wisconsin under detailed climate-change scenarios. In addition, we employ simple land-use/land cover and habitat scenarios to illustrate the potential interaction of climate and land-use/land cover effects. The methods employed here provide a template for studies where integration of physical and biotic models is used to project future conditions under various climate and land use change scenarios. Findings presented here project the future conditions of lakes and loons within an important watershed in northern Wisconsin – of importance to water resource managers and state citizens alike.

Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

2016-04-01

The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

The influence of social comparison on cognitive bias modification and emotional vulnerability.

PubMed

Standage, Helen; Harris, Jemma; Fox, Elaine

2014-02-01

The Cognitive Bias Modification (CBM) paradigm was devised to test predictions that cognitive biases have a causal influence on emotional status. Increasingly, however, researchers are testing the potential clinical applications of CBM. Although generally successful in reducing emotional vulnerability in clinical populations, the impact of CBM interventions has been somewhat variable. The aim of the current experiment was to investigate whether social comparison processing might be an important moderator of CBM. Healthy participants were presented with 80 valenced scenarios devised to induce a positive or negative interpretative bias. Critically, participants answered a series of questions designed to establish whether they assimilated or contrasted themselves with the valenced descriptions. The induction of an interpretation bias that was congruent with the valence of the training scenarios was successful only for participants who tended to assimilate the valenced scenarios, and not for those participants who tended to evaluate themselves against the scenarios. Furthermore, the predicted influence of CBM on emotional outcomes occurred only for those who had an assimilative rather than evaluative orientation toward CBM training material. Of key importance, results indicated that "evaluators" showed increased emotional vulnerability following positive CBM training. This result has both theoretical and clinical implications in suggesting that the success of CBM is dependent upon the way in which participants socially compare themselves with CBM training material. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

River multimodal scenario for rehabilitation robotics.

PubMed

Munih, Marko; Novak, Domen; Milavec, Maja; Ziherl, Jaka; Olenšek, Andrej; Mihelj, Matjaž

2011-01-01

This paper presents the novel "River" multimodal rehabilitation robotics scenario that includes video, audio and haptic modalities. Elements contributing to intrinsic motivation are carefully joined in the three modalities to increase motivation of the user. The user first needs to perform a motor action, then receives a cognitive challenge that is solved with adequate motor activity. Audio includes environmental sounds, music and spoken instructions or encouraging statements. Sounds and music were classified according to the arousal-valence space. The haptic modality can provide catching, grasping, tunnel or adaptive assistance, all depending on the user's needs. The scenario was evaluated in 16 stroke users, who responded to it favourably according to the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory questionnaire. Additionally, the river multimodal environment seems to elicit higher motivation than a simpler apple pick-and-place multimodal task. © 2011 IEEE

Watershed-scale response to climate change through the twenty-first century for selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven; Ward-Garrison, Christian D.

2011-01-01

The hydrologic response of different climate-change emission scenarios for the twenty-first century were evaluated in 14 basins from different hydroclimatic regions across the United States using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a process-based, distributed-parameter watershed model. This study involves four major steps: 1) setup and calibration of the PRMS model in 14 basins across the United States by local U.S. Geological Survey personnel; 2) statistical downscaling of the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 climate-change emission scenarios to create PRMS input files that reflect these emission scenarios; 3) run PRMS for the climate-change emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and 4) evaluation of the PRMS output.This paper presents an overview of this project, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be very different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the climate emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations. This paper concludes with a discussion of the lessons learned and potential for future work.

Anti Submarine Warfare Search Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

worthwhile to send a helicopter out to search for the target? The answer to this operational question depends on the probability of finding the target and...fist,” and “lungs” of the ASW weapon. This balance certainly depends upon the mission and the tactical parameters of the associated scenario. For...effectiveness of search models depends on the scenario and assumptions made, and one can never perfectly model an operational scenario. Each chapter

The Potential Impacts of a Scenario of C02-Induced Climatic Change on Ontafio, Canada.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S. J.; Allsopp, T. R.

1988-07-01

In 1984, Environment Canada, Ontario Region, with financial and expert support from the Canadian Climate Program, initiated an interdisciplinary pilot study to investigate the potential impact, on Ontario, of a climate scenario which might be anticipated under doubling of atmospheric C02 conditions.There were many uncertainties involved in the climate scenario development and the impacts modeling. Time and resource constraints restricted this study to one climate scenario and to the selection of several available models that could be adapted to these impact studies. The pilot study emphasized the approach and process required to investigate potential regional impacts in an interdisciplinary manner, rather than to produce a forecast of the future.The climate scenario chosen was adapted from experimental model results produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), coupled with current climate normals. Gridded monthly mean temperatures and precipitation were then used to develop projected biophysical effects. For example, existing physical and/or statistical models were adapted to determine impacts on the Great Lakes net basin supplies, levels and outflows, streamflow subbasin, snowfall and length of snow season.The second phase of the study addressed the impacts of the climate system scenario on natural resources and resource dependent activities. For example, the impacts of projected decreased lake levels and outflows on commercial navigation and hydroelectric generation were assessed. The impacts of the climate scenario on municipal water use, residential beating and cooling energy requirements opportunities and constraints for food production and tourism and recreation were determined quantitatively where models and methodologies were available, otherwise, qualitatively.First order interdependencies of the biophysical effects of the climate scenario and resource dependent activities were evaluated qualitatively in a workshop format culminating in a series of statements on (i) possible preventive, compensatory and substitution strategies and (ii) an assessment of current knowledge gaps and deficiencies, with recommendations for future areas of research.

Economic assessment of an emerging disease: the case of Schmallenberg virus in France.

PubMed

Waret-Szkuta, A; Alarcon, P; Hasler, B; Rushton, J; Corbière, F; Raboisson, D

2017-04-01

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) was first detected in 2011 in Germany and then in France in 2012. This study simulates the production of different ruminant systems in France and estimates, through partial budget analyses, the economic cost of SBV at the farm level, under two disease scenarios (a high-impact and low-impact scenario). A partial budget is used to evaluate the financial effect of incremental changes, and includes only resources or production that will be changed. In the high-impact scenario, the estimated impact of SBV ranged from €23 to €43 per cow per year and €19 to €37 per ewe per year. In the low-impact scenario, it was approximately half (for cows) or one-third (for ewes) of this amount. These financial impacts represent 0.6% to 63% of the gross margin, depending on the chosen scenario and the livestock system being considered. The impacts of SBV come mainly from: the extra costs from purchasing and raising replacement heifers and losses in milk production (dairy cows); the losses in calf or lamb production (beef systems and meat sheep); and the losses in milk production and from unsold replacement lambs (dairy sheep). The use of integrated production and economic models enabled the authors to estimate the cost of SBV and to tackle the problem of scarce data, which is a difficulty for most emerging diseases, by their very nature. It also allowed the authors to develop an accurate disease impact assessment for several production systems, over a short time span. Extrapolating from this economic assessment to predict the scenario in coming years depends on the immunity period of the disease and the length of the production cycles.

Evaluating Dietary Changes and Their Impact on the Food-Energy-Water Nexus and Climate Change Mitigation using an Integrated Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Kim, S. H.; Waldhoff, S.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

2016-12-01

The composition of the global diet has evolved with the rise of meat consumption in developing countries. The steady rise in the consumption of meat, along with an increasing global population, has changed the agricultural and livestock landscape of the world. We have developed diet scenarios in which the global food consumption is increased to match the USDA recommended daily caloric intake while the percentage of meat within the diet is changed to closely mirror that of the standard United States diet (High Meat) and the diet of India (Low Meat). We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), to process our dietary change scenarios. We attempt to quantify the changes in the global land, water, and emissions footprint. Along with the standard diet scenarios, we aim to understand the implications of our diet scenarios within a strict RCP 2.6 climate change scenario. Changes in land use, emissions, and water consumption are largely dependent upon the resultant changes to the livestock sector. Scenarios of increased dependency on livestock result in cropland expansion, a rise in water withdrawals, and escalated non-CO2 emissions that lead to consequent increases in global mean temperature. Under strict climate policies, extensive cropland and biomass expansion is observed at the expense of much of the global forests. Our analysis shows that even in the absence of climate policies, the burden that increasing the amount of meat in the global diet has upon the global landscape could be unsustainable, while lowering global meat consumption could lead to water savings, decreases in emissions, and available land for reforestation or biomass growth.

Postaudit of optimal conjunctive use policies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nishikawa, Tracy; Martin, Peter; ,

1998-01-01

A simulation-optimization model was developed for the optimal management of the city of Santa Barbara's water resources during a drought; however, this model addressed only groundwater flow and not the advective-dispersive, density-dependent transport of seawater. Zero-m freshwater head constraints at the coastal boundary were used as surrogates for the control of seawater intrusion. In this study, the strategies derived from the simulation-optimization model using two surface water supply scenarios are evaluated using a two-dimensional, density-dependent groundwater flow and transport model. Comparisons of simulated chloride mass fractions are made between maintaining the actual pumping policies of the 1987-91 drought and implementing the optimal pumping strategies for each scenario. The results indicate that using 0-m freshwater head constraints allowed no more seawater intrusion than under actual 1987-91 drought conditions and that the simulation-optimization model yields least-cost strategies that deliver more water than under actual drought conditions while controlling seawater intrusion.

A framework to analyze emissions implications of manufacturing shifts in the industrial sector through integrating bottom-up energy models and economic input/output environmental life cycle assessment models

EPA Science Inventory

Future year emissions depend highly on economic, technological, societal and regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze technology development pathways and changes in consumer preferences, and evaluate resulting emissions growth patterns while considering fut...

Simulation of groundwater flow in the Edwards-Trinity and related aquifers in the Pecos County region, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Brian R.; Bumgarner, Johnathan R.; Houston, Natalie A.; Foster, Adam L.

2014-01-01

The model was used to simulate groundwater-level altitudes resulting from prolonged pumping to evaluate sustainability of current and projected water-use demands. Each of three scenarios utilized a continuation of the calibrated model. Scenario 1 extended recent (2008) irrigation and nonirrigation pumping values for a 30-year period from 2010 to 2040. Projected groundwater-level changes in and around the Fort Stockton area under scenario 1 change little from current conditions, indicating that the groundwater system is near equilibrium with respect to recent (2008) pumping stress. Projected groundwater-level declines in the eastern part of the model area ranging from 5.0 to 15.0 feet are likely the result of nonequilibrium conditions associated with recent increases in pumping after a prolonged water-level recovery period of little or no pumping. Projected groundwater-level declines (from 15.0 to 31.0 feet) occurred in localized areas by the end of scenario 1 in the Leon-Belding area. Scenario 2 evaluated the effects of extended recent (2008) pumping rates as assigned in scenario 1 with year-round maximum permitted pumping rates in the Belding area. Results of scenario 2 are similar in water-level decline and extent as those of scenario 1. The extent of the projected groundwater-level decline in the range from 5.0 to 15.0 feet in the Leon-Belding irrigation area expanded slightly (about a 2-percent increase) from that of scenario 1. Maximum projected groundwater-level declines in the Leon-Belding irrigation area were approximately 31.3 feet in small isolated areas. Scenario 3 evaluated the effects of periodic increases in pumping rates over the 30-year extended period. Results of scenario 3 are similar to those of scenario 2 in terms of the areas of groundwater-level decline; however, the maximum projected groundwater-level decline increased to approximately 34.5 feet in the Leon-Belding area, and the extent of the decline was larger in area (about a 17-percent increase) than that of scenario 2. Additionally, the area of projected groundwater-level declines in the eastern part of the model area increased from that of scenario 2—two individual areas of decline coalesced into one larger area. The localized nature of the projected groundwater-level declines is a reflection of the high degree of fractured control on storage and hydraulic conductivity in the Edwards-Trinity aquifer. Additionally, the finding that simulated spring flow is highly dependent on the transient nature of hydraulic heads in the underlying aquifer indicates the importance of adequately understanding and characterizing the entire groundwater system.

The Robustness of Plant-Pollinator Assemblages: Linking Plant Interaction Patterns and Sensitivity to Pollinator Loss

PubMed Central

Astegiano, Julia; Massol, François; Vidal, Mariana Morais; Cheptou, Pierre-Olivier; Guimarães, Paulo R.

2015-01-01

Most flowering plants depend on pollinators to reproduce. Thus, evaluating the robustness of plant-pollinator assemblages to species loss is a major concern. How species interaction patterns are related to species sensitivity to partner loss may influence the robustness of plant-pollinator assemblages. In plants, both reproductive dependence on pollinators (breeding system) and dispersal ability may modulate plant sensitivity to pollinator loss. For instance, species with strong dependence (e.g. dioecious species) and low dispersal (e.g. seeds dispersed by gravity) may be the most sensitive to pollinator loss. We compared the interaction patterns of plants differing in dependence on pollinators and dispersal ability in a meta-dataset comprising 192 plant species from 13 plant-pollinator networks. In addition, network robustness was compared under different scenarios representing sequences of plant extinctions associated with plant sensitivity to pollinator loss. Species with different dependence on pollinators and dispersal ability showed similar levels of generalization. Although plants with low dispersal ability interacted with more generalized pollinators, low-dispersal plants with strong dependence on pollinators (i.e. the most sensitive to pollinator loss) interacted with more particular sets of pollinators (i.e. shared a low proportion of pollinators with other plants). Only two assemblages showed lower robustness under the scenario considering plant generalization, dependence on pollinators and dispersal ability than under the scenario where extinction sequences only depended on plant generalization (i.e. where higher generalization level was associated with lower probability of extinction). Overall, our results support the idea that species generalization and network topology may be good predictors of assemblage robustness to species loss, independently of plant dispersal ability and breeding system. In contrast, since ecological specialization among partners may increase the probability of disruption of interactions, the fact that the plants most sensitive to pollinator loss interacted with more particular pollinator assemblages suggest that the persistence of these plants and their pollinators might be highly compromised. PMID:25646762

Predicting population survival under future climate change: density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Colchero, Fernando; Medellin, Rodrigo A; Clark, James S; Lee, Raymond; Katul, Gabriel G

2009-05-01

1. Our understanding of the interplay between density dependence, climatic perturbations, and conservation practices on the dynamics of small populations is still limited. This can result in uninformed strategies that put endangered populations at risk. Moreover, the data available for a large number of populations in such circumstances are sparse and mined with missing data. Under the current climate change scenarios, it is essential to develop appropriate inferential methods that can make use of such data sets. 2. We studied a population of desert bighorn sheep introduced to Tiburon Island, Mexico in 1975 and subjected to irregular extractions for the last 10 years. The unique attributes of this population are absence of predation and disease, thereby permitting us to explore the combined effect of density dependence, environmental variability and extraction in a 'controlled setting.' Using a combination of nonlinear discrete models with long-term field data, we constructed three basic Bayesian state space models with increasing density dependence (DD), and the same three models with the addition of summer drought effects. 3. We subsequently used Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the combined effect of drought, DD, and increasing extractions on the probability of population survival under two climate change scenarios (based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictions): (i) increase in drought variability; and (ii) increase in mean drought severity. 4. The population grew from 16 individuals introduced in 1975 to close to 700 by 1993. Our results show that the population's growth was dominated by DD, with drought having a secondary but still relevant effect on its dynamics. 5. Our predictions suggest that under climate change scenario (i), extraction dominates the fate of the population, while for scenario (ii), an increase in mean drought affects the population's probability of survival in an equivalent magnitude as extractions. Thus, for the long-term survival of the population, our results stress that a more variable environment is less threatening than one in which the mean conditions become harsher. Current climate change scenarios and their underlying uncertainty make studies such as this one crucial for understanding the dynamics of ungulate populations and their conservation.

Environmental impacts and benefits of state-of-the-art technologies for E-waste management.

PubMed

Ikhlayel, Mahdi

2017-10-01

This study aims to evaluate the environmental impacts and benefits of state-of-the-art technologies for proper e-waste handling using Jordan as a case study. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was employed to evaluate five advanced management systems represent state-of-the-art treatment technologies, including sanitary landfilling; proper recycling of metals, materials, and precious metals (PMs); and incineration of plastic and the hazardous portion of printed circuit boards (PCBs). Six e-waste products that contribute the most to the e-waste in Jordan were included in the assessment of each scenario, which resulted in 30 total cases of e-waste management. The findings indicated that landfills for the entire components of the e-waste stream are the worst option and should be avoided. The most promising e-waste management scenario features integrated e-waste processes based on the concept of Integrated Waste Management (IWM), including recycling materials such as non-PMs and PMs, incinerating plastic and the hazardous content of PCBs using the energy recovered from incineration, and using sanitary landfills of residues. For this scenario, the best environmental performance was obtained for the treatment of mobile phones. Incineration of the portion of hazardous waste using energy recovery is an option that deserves attention. Because scenario implementation depends on more than just the environmental benefits (e.g., economic cost and technical aspects), the study proposes a systematic approach founded on the IWM concept for e-waste management scenario selection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluate and Characterize Mechanisms Controlling Transport, Fate, and Effects of Army Smokes in the Aerosol Wind tunnel

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-09-01

airborne aerosol characteristics and deposition to receptor surfaces. Direct and indirect biotic effects were evaluated using five plant species and two...aerosol was characterized and used to expose plant , soil, and other test systems. Particle sizes of airborne HC ranged from 1.3 to 2.1 gim mass median...130 to 680 mg/m 3 , depending on exposure scenario. Chlorocarbon concentrations within smokes, deposition rates for plant and soil surfaces, and

Passive sensor technology interface to assess elder activity in independent living.

PubMed

Alexander, Gregory L; Wakefield, Bonnie J; Rantz, Marilyn; Skubic, Marjorie; Aud, Myra A; Erdelez, Sanda; Ghenaimi, Said Al

2011-01-01

The effectiveness of clinical information systems to improve nursing and patient outcomes depends on human factors, including system usability, organizational workflow, and user satisfaction. The aim of this study was to examine to what extent residents, family members, and clinicians find a sensor data interface used to monitor elder activity levels usable and useful in an independent living setting. Three independent expert reviewers conducted an initial heuristic evaluation. Subsequently, 20 end users (5 residents, 5 family members, 5 registered nurses, and 5 physicians) participated in the evaluation. During the evaluation, each participant was asked to complete three scenarios taken from three residents. Morae recorder software was used to capture data during the user interactions. The heuristic evaluation resulted in 26 recommendations for interface improvement; these were classified under the headings content, aesthetic appeal, navigation, and architecture, which were derived from heuristic results. Total time for elderly residents to complete scenarios was much greater than for other users. Family members spent more time than clinicians but less time than residents did to complete scenarios. Elder residents and family members had difficulty interpreting clinical data and graphs, experienced information overload, and did not understand terminology. All users found the sensor data interface useful for identifying changing resident activities. Older adult users have special needs that should be addressed when designing clinical interfaces for them, especially information as important as health information. Evaluating human factors during user interactions with clinical information systems should be a requirement before implementation.

The amount of supervision trainees receive during neonatal resuscitation is variable and often dependent on subjective criteria.

PubMed

Kane, Sara K; Lorant, Diane E

2018-05-24

Measure variation in delivery room supervision provided by neonatologists using hypothetical scenarios and determine the factors used to guide entrustment decisions. A survey was distributed to members of the American Academy of Pediatrics Section on Perinatal Pediatrics. Neonatologists were presented with various newborn resuscitation scenarios and asked to choose the level of supervision they thought appropriate and grade factors on their importance in making entrustment decisions. There was significant variation in supervision neonatologists deemed necessary for most scenarios (deviation from the mode 0.36-0.69). Post-graduate year of training and environmental circumstances influence the amount of autonomy neonatologists grant trainees. Few neonatologists have objective assessment of a trainees' competence in neonatal resuscitation available to them and most never document how the trainee performed. Delivery room supervision is often determined by subjective evaluation of trainees' competence and may not provide a level of supervision congruent with their capability.

Requirements Modeling with the Aspect-oriented User Requirements Notation (AoURN): A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mussbacher, Gunter; Amyot, Daniel; Araújo, João; Moreira, Ana

The User Requirements Notation (URN) is a recent ITU-T standard that supports requirements engineering activities. The Aspect-oriented URN (AoURN) adds aspect-oriented concepts to URN, creating a unified framework that allows for scenario-based, goal-oriented, and aspect-oriented modeling. AoURN is applied to the car crash crisis management system (CCCMS), modeling its functional and non-functional requirements (NFRs). AoURN generally models all use cases, NFRs, and stakeholders as individual concerns and provides general guidelines for concern identification. AoURN handles interactions between concerns, capturing their dependencies and conflicts as well as the resolutions. We present a qualitative comparison of aspect-oriented techniques for scenario-based and goal-oriented requirements engineering. An evaluation carried out based on the metrics adapted from literature and a task-based evaluation suggest that AoURN models are more scalable than URN models and exhibit better modularity, reusability, and maintainability.

Genetic evaluation of claw health traits accounting for potential preselection of cows to be trimmed.

PubMed

Croué, Iola; Fikse, Freddy; Johansson, Kjell; Carlén, Emma; Thomas, Gilles; Leclerc, Hélène; Ducrocq, Vincent

2017-10-01

Claw lesions are one of the most important health issues in dairy cattle. Although the frequency of claw lesions depends greatly on herd management, the frequency can be lowered through genetic selection. A genetic evaluation could be developed based on trimming records collected by claw trimmers; however, not all cows present in a herd are usually selected by the breeder to be trimmed. The objectives of this study were to investigate the importance of the preselection of cows for trimming, to account for this preselection, and to estimate genetic parameters of claw health traits. The final data set contained 25,511 trimming records of French Holstein cows. Analyzed claw lesion traits were digital dermatitis, heel horn erosion, interdigital hyperplasia, sole hemorrhage circumscribed, sole hemorrhage diffused, sole ulcer, and white line fissure. All traits were analyzed as binary traits in a multitrait linear animal model. Three scenarios were considered: including only trimmed cows in a 7-trait model (scenario 1); or trimmed cows and contemporary cows not trimmed but present at the time of a visit (considering that nontrimmed cows were healthy) in a 7-trait model (scenario 2); or trimmed cows and contemporary cows not trimmed but present at the time of a visit (considering lesion records for trimmed cows only), in an 8-trait model, including a 0/1 trimming status trait (scenario 3). For scenario 3, heritability estimates ranged from 0.02 to 0.09 on the observed scale. Genetic correlations clearly revealed 2 groups of traits (digital dermatitis, heel horn erosion, and interdigital hyperplasia on the one hand, and sole hemorrhage circumscribed, sole hemorrhage diffused, sole ulcer, and white line fissure on the other hand). Heritabilities on the underlying scale did not vary much depending on the scenario: the effect of the preselection of cows for trimming on the estimation of heritabilities appeared to be negligible. However, including untrimmed cows as healthy caused bias in the estimation of genetic correlations. The use of a trimming status trait to account for preselection appears promising, as it allows consideration of the exhaustive population of cows present at the time a trimmer visited a farm without causing bias in genetic parameters. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic approach for earthquake scenarios in the Marmara region from dynamic rupture simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo

2014-05-01

The Marmara region (Turkey) along the North Anatolian fault is known as a high potential of large earthquakes in the next decades. For the purpose of seismic hazard/risk evaluation, kinematic and dynamic source models have been proposed (e.g. Oglesby and Mai, GJI, 2012). In general, the simulated earthquake scenarios depend on the hypothesis and cannot be verified before the expected earthquake. We then introduce a probabilistic insight to give the initial/boundary conditions to statistically analyze the simulated scenarios. We prepare different fault geometry models, tectonic loading and hypocenter locations. We keep the same framework of the simulation procedure as the dynamic rupture process of the adjacent 1999 Izmit earthquake (Aochi and Madariaga, BSSA, 2003), as the previous models were able to reproduce the seismological/geodetic aspects of the event. Irregularities in fault geometry play a significant role to control the rupture progress, and a relatively large change in geometry may work as barriers. The variety of the simulate earthquake scenarios should be useful for estimating the variety of the expected ground motion.

Integrated Prevention of Social Dependencies in Adolescents through the Scenario Method

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maznichenko, Marina A.; Neskoromnykh, Nataliya I.

2015-01-01

This article provides a rationale for the need to take an integrated approach to prevention of social dependencies in adolescents. Through this approach, the authors fine-tune the determination of the phenomenon of prevention of social dependencies. The authors bring to light the potential of the scenario method in resolving the above objective.…

A large coaxial reflection cell for broadband dielectric characterization of coarse-grained materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bore, Thierry; Bhuyan, Habibullah; Bittner, Tilman; Murgan, Vignesh; Wagner, Norman; Scheuermann, Alexander

2018-01-01

Knowledge of the frequency-dependent electromagnetic properties of coarse-grained materials is imperative for the successful application of high frequency electromagnetic measurement techniques for near and subsurface monitoring. This paper reports the design, calibration and application of a novel one-port large coaxial cell for broadband complex permittivity measurements of civil engineering materials. It was designed to allow the characterization of heterogeneous material with large aggregate dimensions (up to 28 mm) over a frequency range from 1 MHz-860 MHz. In the first step, the system parameters were calibrated using the measured scattering function in a perfectly known dielectric material in an optimization scheme. In the second step, the method was validated with measurements made on standard liquids. Then the performance of the cell was evaluated on a compacted coarse-grained soil. The dielectric spectra were obtained by means of fitting the measured scattering function using a transverse electromagnetic mode propagation model considering the frequency-dependent complex permittivity. Two scenarios were systematically analyzed and compared. The first scenario consisted of a broadband generalized dielectric relaxation model with two Cole-Cole type relaxation processes related to the interaction of the aqueous phase and the solid phase, a constant high frequency contribution as well as an apparent direct current conductivity term. The second scenario relied on a three-phase theoretical mixture equation which was used in a forward approach in order to calibrate the model. Both scenarios provide almost identical results for the broadband effective complex relative permittivity. The combination of both scenarios suggests the simultaneous estimation of water content, density, bulk and pore water conductivity for road base materials for in situ applications.

Downsizing a long-term precipitation network: Using a quantitative approach to inform difficult decisions.

PubMed

Green, Mark B; Campbell, John L; Yanai, Ruth D; Bailey, Scott W; Bailey, Amey S; Grant, Nicholas; Halm, Ian; Kelsey, Eric P; Rustad, Lindsey E

2018-01-01

The design of a precipitation monitoring network must balance the demand for accurate estimates with the resources needed to build and maintain the network. If there are changes in the objectives of the monitoring or the availability of resources, network designs should be adjusted. At the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA, precipitation has been monitored with a network established in 1955 that has grown to 23 gauges distributed across nine small catchments. This high sampling intensity allowed us to simulate reduced sampling schemes and thereby evaluate the effect of decommissioning gauges on the quality of precipitation estimates. We considered all possible scenarios of sampling intensity for the catchments on the south-facing slope (2047 combinations) and the north-facing slope (4095 combinations), from the current scenario with 11 or 12 gauges to only 1 gauge remaining. Gauge scenarios differed by as much as 6.0% from the best estimate (based on all the gauges), depending on the catchment, but 95% of the scenarios gave estimates within 2% of the long-term average annual precipitation. The insensitivity of precipitation estimates and the catchment fluxes that depend on them under many reduced monitoring scenarios allowed us to base our reduction decision on other factors such as technician safety, the time required for monitoring, and co-location with other hydrometeorological measurements (snow, air temperature). At Hubbard Brook, precipitation gauges could be reduced from 23 to 10 with a change of <2% in the long-term precipitation estimates. The decision-making approach illustrated in this case study is applicable to the redesign of monitoring networks when reduction of effort seems warranted.

Safety evaluations under the proposed US Safe Cosmetics and Personal Care Products Act of 2013: animal use and cost estimates.

PubMed

Knight, Jean; Rovida, Costanca

2014-01-01

The proposed Safe Cosmetics and Personal Care Products Act of 2013 calls for a new evaluation program for cosmetic ingredients in the US, with the new assessments initially dependent on expanded animal testing. This paper considers possible testing scenarios under the proposed Act and estimates the number of test animals and cost under each scenario. It focuses on the impact for the first 10 years of testing, the period of greatest impact on animals and costs. The analysis suggests the first 10 years of testing under the Act could evaluate, at most, about 50% of ingredients used in cosmetics. Testing during this period would cost about $ 1.7-$ 9 billion and 1-11.5 million animals. By test year 10, alternative, high-throughput test methods under development are expected to be available, replacing animal testing and allowing rapid evaluation of all ingredients. Given the high cost in dollars and animal lives of the first 10 years for only about half of ingredients, a better choice may be to accelerate development of high-throughput methods. This would allow evaluation of 100% of cosmetic ingredients before year 10 at lower cost and without animal testing.

Evaluating economic and environmental aspects of using solar panels on multi-angled facades of office buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannoudi, Loay Akram; Lauring, Michael; Christensen, Jørgen Erik

2017-09-01

This paper is concerned with using solar panels as high-tech cladding materials on multi-angled facades for office buildings. The energy produced by the solar panels will be consumed inside the office rooms by cooling compressors, ventilation, lighting and office equipment. Each multi-angled facade unit is directed into two different orientations on a vertical axis (right and left), but not tilted up and down. The different facade orientations will optimize the use of solar radiation to produce the needed energy from the solar panels when placing them on the parapets of these facades. In this regard, four scenarios with different facade configurations and orientations are evaluated and discussed. The method for the simulations and calculations depends on two main programs: first, IDA ICE program to calculate the energy consumption and evaluate the indoor climate of the building; and second, PVBAT to calculate the cost of the electricity produced by the solar panels and evaluate the total amount of energy produced from these panels along with the ratio to the energy bought directly from the electricity grid. There is also an environmental evaluation for the system by calculating the CO2 emissions in the different scenarios.

Assessing the costs and benefits of US renewable portfolio standards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan; Mai, Trieu T.; Millstein, Dev

In this study, renewable portfolio standards (RPS) exist in 29 US states and the District of Columbia. This article summarizes the first national-level, integrated assessment of the future costs and benefits of existing RPS policies; the same metrics are evaluated under a second scenario in which widespread expansion of these policies is assumed to occur. Depending on assumptions about renewable energy technology advancement and natural gas prices, existing RPS policies increase electric system costs by as much as 31 billion dollars, on a present-value basis over 2015-2050. The expanded renewable deployment scenario yields incremental costs that range from 23 billionmore » to 194 billion dollars, depending on the assumptions employed. The monetized value of improved air quality and reduced climate damages exceed these costs. Using central assumptions, existing RPS policies yield 97 billion dollars in air-pollution health benefits and 161 billion dollars in climate damage reductions. Under the expanded RPS case, health benefits total 558 billion dollars and climate benefits equal 599 billion dollars. These scenarios also yield benefits in the form of reduced water use. RPS programs are not likely to represent the most cost effective path towards achieving air quality and climate benefits. Nonetheless, the findings suggest that US RPS programs are, on a national basis, cost effective when considering externalities.« less

Assessing the costs and benefits of US renewable portfolio standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiser, Ryan; Mai, Trieu; Millstein, Dev; Barbose, Galen; Bird, Lori; Heeter, Jenny; Keyser, David; Krishnan, Venkat; Macknick, Jordan

2017-09-01

Renewable portfolio standards (RPS) exist in 29 US states and the District of Columbia. This article summarizes the first national-level, integrated assessment of the future costs and benefits of existing RPS policies; the same metrics are evaluated under a second scenario in which widespread expansion of these policies is assumed to occur. Depending on assumptions about renewable energy technology advancement and natural gas prices, existing RPS policies increase electric system costs by as much as 31 billion, on a present-value basis over 2015-2050. The expanded renewable deployment scenario yields incremental costs that range from 23 billion to 194 billion, depending on the assumptions employed. The monetized value of improved air quality and reduced climate damages exceed these costs. Using central assumptions, existing RPS policies yield 97 billion in air-pollution health benefits and 161 billion in climate damage reductions. Under the expanded RPS case, health benefits total 558 billion and climate benefits equal 599 billion. These scenarios also yield benefits in the form of reduced water use. RPS programs are not likely to represent the most cost effective path towards achieving air quality and climate benefits. Nonetheless, the findings suggest that US RPS programs are, on a national basis, cost effective when considering externalities.

Assessing the costs and benefits of US renewable portfolio standards

DOE PAGES

Wiser, Ryan; Mai, Trieu T.; Millstein, Dev; ...

2017-09-26

In this study, renewable portfolio standards (RPS) exist in 29 US states and the District of Columbia. This article summarizes the first national-level, integrated assessment of the future costs and benefits of existing RPS policies; the same metrics are evaluated under a second scenario in which widespread expansion of these policies is assumed to occur. Depending on assumptions about renewable energy technology advancement and natural gas prices, existing RPS policies increase electric system costs by as much as 31 billion dollars, on a present-value basis over 2015-2050. The expanded renewable deployment scenario yields incremental costs that range from 23 billionmore » to 194 billion dollars, depending on the assumptions employed. The monetized value of improved air quality and reduced climate damages exceed these costs. Using central assumptions, existing RPS policies yield 97 billion dollars in air-pollution health benefits and 161 billion dollars in climate damage reductions. Under the expanded RPS case, health benefits total 558 billion dollars and climate benefits equal 599 billion dollars. These scenarios also yield benefits in the form of reduced water use. RPS programs are not likely to represent the most cost effective path towards achieving air quality and climate benefits. Nonetheless, the findings suggest that US RPS programs are, on a national basis, cost effective when considering externalities.« less

Ordered weighted averaging with fuzzy quantifiers: GIS-based multicriteria evaluation for land-use suitability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malczewski, Jacek

2006-12-01

The objective of this paper is to incorporate the concept of fuzzy (linguistic) quantifiers into the GIS-based land suitability analysis via ordered weighted averaging (OWA). OWA is a multicriteria evaluation procedure (or combination operator). The nature of the OWA procedure depends on some parameters, which can be specified by means of fuzzy (linguistic) quantifiers. By changing the parameters, OWA can generate a wide range of decision strategies or scenarios. The quantifier-guided OWA procedure is illustrated using land-use suitability analysis in a region of Mexico.

Evaluating policy-relevant emission inventories for transportation and electricity (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Bickford, E. E.

2013-12-01

We explore the challenges and opportunities in evaluating bottom-up emission inventories for transportation and electricity. These anthropogenic emissions respond in complex ways to technology and activity changes. Thus, it is essential that inventories capture historic emissions consistent with observations, as well as future emissions consistent with policy scenarios. For transportation, we focus on freight-related trucking emissions, represented by the Wisconsin Inventory for Freight Emissions (WIFE), developed with activity data from the U.S. Federal Highway Administration Freight Analysis Framework and emission factors from the EPA MOVES model. Because WIFE is linked to commodity flows and roadway speeds, it offers a useful data set to evaluate policy changes such as truck-to-rail modal shifts and alternative fuel choices. However, the value of the inventory in assessing these scenarios depends on its skill in calculating frieght-related emissions. Satellite data of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) from the OMI instrument aboard the NASA Aura satellite is used to evaluate truck and rail NOx emissions, especially on rural highways away from ground-based monitors. For electricity, we use the MyPower electricity dispatch model to calculate emissions and power generation in response to policy and technology changes. These include renewable portfolio standards, conservation, increased natural gas, and response to building demand. To evaluate MyPower, we compare with the Clean Air Markets database, and 2007 calculated daily afternoon emissions with satellite-derived NO2 from OMI. Drawing on the results of these studies, we discuss strategies to meet the information demands of both historically correct air quality inputs and future-relevant policy scenarios.

[Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

PubMed

Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

2015-08-01

Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

SDSS-IV MaNGA: modelling the metallicity gradients of gas and stars - radially dependent metal outflow versus IMF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Jianhui; Thomas, Daniel; Maraston, Claudia; Goddard, Daniel; Parikh, Taniya; Fernández-Trincado, J. G.; Roman-Lopes, Alexandre; Rong, Yu; Tang, Baitian; Yan, Renbin

2018-05-01

In our previous work, we found that only two scenarios are capable of reproducing the observed integrated mass-metallicity relations for the gas and stellar components of local star-forming galaxies simultaneously. One scenario invokes a time-dependent metal outflow loading factor with stronger outflows at early times. The other scenario uses a time-dependent initial mass function (IMF) slope with a steeper IMF at early times. In this work, we extend our study to investigate the radial profile of gas and stellar metallicity in local star-forming galaxies using spatially resolved spectroscopic data from the SDSS-IV MaNGA survey. We find that most galaxies show negative gradients in both gas and stellar metallicity with steeper gradients in stellar metallicity. The stellar metallicity gradients tend to be mass dependent with steeper gradients in more massive galaxies while no clear mass dependence is found for the gas metallicity gradient. Then we compare the observations with the predictions from a chemical evolution model of the radial profiles of gas and stellar metallicities. We confirm that the two scenarios proposed in our previous work are also required to explain the metallicity gradients. Based on these two scenarios, we successfully reproduce the radial profiles of gas metallicity, stellar metallicity, stellar mass surface density, and star formation rate surface density simultaneously. The origin of the negative gradient in stellar metallicity turns out to be driven by either radially dependent metal outflow or IMF slope. In contrast, the radial dependence of the gas metallicity is less constrained because of the degeneracy in model parameters.

Politics in evaluation: Politically responsive evaluation in high stakes environments.

PubMed

Azzam, Tarek; Levine, Bret

2015-12-01

The role of politics has often been discussed in evaluation theory and practice. The political influence of the situation can have major effects on the evaluation design, approach and methods. Politics also has the potential to influence the decisions made from the evaluation findings. The current study focuses on the influence of the political context on stakeholder decision making. Utilizing a simulation scenario, this study compares stakeholder decision making in high and low stakes evaluation contexts. Findings suggest that high stakes political environments are more likely than low stakes environments to lead to reduced reliance on technically appropriate measures and increased dependence on measures better reflect the broader political environment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SU-F-T-192: Study of Robustness Analysis Method of Multiple Field Optimized IMPT Plans for Head & Neck Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Y; Wang, X; Li, H

Purpose: Proton therapy is more sensitive to uncertainties than photon treatments due to protons’ finite range depending on the tissue density. Worst case scenario (WCS) method originally proposed by Lomax has been adopted in our institute for robustness analysis of IMPT plans. This work demonstrates that WCS method is sufficient enough to take into account of the uncertainties which could be encountered during daily clinical treatment. Methods: A fast and approximate dose calculation method is developed to calculate the dose for the IMPT plan under different setup and range uncertainties. Effects of two factors, inversed square factor and range uncertainty,more » are explored. WCS robustness analysis method was evaluated using this fast dose calculation method. The worst-case dose distribution was generated by shifting isocenter by 3 mm along x,y and z directions and modifying stopping power ratios by ±3.5%. 1000 randomly perturbed cases in proton range and x, yz directions were created and the corresponding dose distributions were calculated using this approximated method. DVH and dosimetric indexes of all 1000 perturbed cases were calculated and compared with the result using worst case scenario method. Results: The distributions of dosimetric indexes of 1000 perturbed cases were generated and compared with the results using worst case scenario. For D95 of CTVs, at least 97% of 1000 perturbed cases show higher values than the one of worst case scenario. For D5 of CTVs, at least 98% of perturbed cases have lower values than worst case scenario. Conclusion: By extensively calculating the dose distributions under random uncertainties, WCS method was verified to be reliable in evaluating the robustness level of MFO IMPT plans of H&N patients. The extensively sampling approach using fast approximated method could be used in evaluating the effects of different factors on the robustness level of IMPT plans in the future.« less

Impact Analysis of Age on Fallout Fatality Estimations for IND Scenarios

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-11-30

management of the acute radiation syndrome : recommendations of the Strategic National Stockpile Radiation Working Group. Ann Intern Med 140: 1037-51...dependent radiation dose response for acute effects was evaluated in detail. The analysis included data from animal studies, radiation oncology, and other...probability of 60-day mortality (assuming no treatment) for acute radiation exposure. This model has been adapted to account for protracted fallout

Strategy-Based Technical Instruction: Development and Evaluation

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-08-01

scripts dependant on target tasks and the outcomes desired, and to the use of node-link knowledge maps as communications props. In addition, we have...information "on the job" - communicate with others in the task environment; - monitor, diagnose, and correct problems associated with critical tasks... communicated . Technical Training Goals The individual in a technical training scenario is expected to achieve a wide variety of goals. These goals can

Impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 1: Tropospheric composition and air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

2013-07-01

Vehicles burning fossil fuel emit a number of substances that change the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere, and contribute to global air and water pollution and climate change. For example, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted as byproducts of fossil fuel combustion are key precursors to ground-level ozone and aerosol formation. In addition, on-road vehicles are major CO2 emitters. In order to tackle these problems, molecular hydrogen (H2) has been proposed as an energy carrier to substitute for fossil fuels in the future. However, before implementing any such strategy it is crucial to evaluate its potential impacts on air quality and climate. Here, we evaluate the impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on tropospheric chemistry and air quality for several possible growth and technology adoption scenarios. The growth scenarios are based on the high and low emissions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, A1FI and B1, respectively. The technological adoption scenarios include H2 fuel cell and H2 internal combustion engine options. The impacts are evaluated with the Community Atmospheric Model Chemistry global chemistry transport model (CAM-Chem). Higher resolution simulations focusing on the contiguous United States are also carried out with the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ) regional chemistry transport model. For all scenarios future air quality improves with the adoption of a H2-based road transportation sector; however, the magnitude and type of improvement depend on the scenario. Model results show that the adoption of H2 fuel cells would decrease tropospheric burdens of ozone (7%), CO (14%), NOx (16%), soot (17%), sulfate aerosol (4%), and ammonium nitrate aerosol (12%) in the A1FI scenario, and would decrease those of ozone (5%), CO (4%), NOx (11%), soot (7%), sulfate aerosol (4%), and ammonium nitrate aerosol (9%) in the B1 scenario. The adoption of H2 internal combustion engines would decrease tropospheric burdens of ozone (1%), CO (18%), soot (17%), and sulfate aerosol (3%) in the A1FI scenario, and would decrease those of ozone (1%), CO (7%), soot (7%), and sulfate aerosol (3%) in the B1 scenario. In the future, people residing in the contiguous United States could expect to experience significantly fewer days of elevated levels of pollution if a H2 fuel cell road transportation sector were to be adopted. Health benefits of transitioning to a H2 economy for citizens in developing nations, like China and India, will be much more dramatic, particularly in megacities with severe, intensifying air-quality problems.

The impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 1: Tropospheric composition and air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

2012-08-01

Vehicles burning fossil fuel emit a number of substances that change the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere, and contribute to global air and water pollution and climate change. For example, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted as byproducts of fossil fuel combustion are key precursors to ground-level ozone and aerosol formation. In addition, on-road vehicles are major CO2 emitters. In order to tackle these problems, molecular hydrogen (H2) has been proposed as an energy carrier to substitute for fossil fuel in the future. However, before implementing any such strategy it is crucial to evaluate its potential impacts on air quality and climate. Here we evaluate the impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on tropospheric chemistry and air quality for several possible growth and technology adoption scenarios. The growth scenarios are based on the high and low emissions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, A1FI and B1, respectively. The technological adoption scenarios include H2 fuel cell and H2 internal combustion engine options. The impacts are evaluated with the Community Atmospheric Model Chemistry global chemistry transport model (CAM-Chem). Higher resolution simulations focusing on the contiguous United States are also carried out with the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ) regional chemistry transport model. For all scenarios future air quality improves with the adoption of a H2-based road transportation sector, however, the magnitude and type of improvement depend on the scenario. Model results show that with the adoption of H2 fuel cells decreases tropospheric burdens of ozone (7%), CO (14%), NOx (16%), soot (17%), sulfate aerosol (4%), and ammonium nitrate aerosol (12%) in the A1FI scenario, and decreases those of ozone (5%), CO (4%), NOx (11%), soot (7%), sulfate aerosol (4%), and ammonium nitrate aerosol (9 %) in the B1 scenario. The adoption of H2 internal combustion engines decreases tropospheric burdens of ozone (1%), CO (18%), soot (17%), and sulfate aerosol (3%) in the A1FI scenario, and decreases those of ozone (1%), CO (7%), soot (7%), and sulfate aerosol (3%) in the B1 scenario. In the future, people residing in the contiguous United States are expected to experience significantly fewer days of elevated levels of pollution if a H2 fuel cell road transportation sector is adopted. Health benefits of transitioning to a H2 economy for citizens in developing nations, like China and India, will be much more dramatic particularly in megacities with severe air-quality problems that are exacerbating.

Trade Studies of Space Launch Architectures using Modular Probabilistic Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Go, Susie

2006-01-01

A top-down risk assessment in the early phases of space exploration architecture development can provide understanding and intuition of the potential risks associated with new designs and technologies. In this approach, risk analysts draw from their past experience and the heritage of similar existing systems as a source for reliability data. This top-down approach captures the complex interactions of the risk driving parts of the integrated system without requiring detailed knowledge of the parts themselves, which is often unavailable in the early design stages. Traditional probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) technologies, however, suffer several drawbacks that limit their timely application to complex technology development programs. The most restrictive of these is a dependence on static planning scenarios, expressed through fault and event trees. Fault trees incorporating comprehensive mission scenarios are routinely constructed for complex space systems, and several commercial software products are available for evaluating fault statistics. These static representations cannot capture the dynamic behavior of system failures without substantial modification of the initial tree. Consequently, the development of dynamic models using fault tree analysis has been an active area of research in recent years. This paper discusses the implementation and demonstration of dynamic, modular scenario modeling for integration of subsystem fault evaluation modules using the Space Architecture Failure Evaluation (SAFE) tool. SAFE is a C++ code that was originally developed to support NASA s Space Launch Initiative. It provides a flexible framework for system architecture definition and trade studies. SAFE supports extensible modeling of dynamic, time-dependent risk drivers of the system and functions at the level of fidelity for which design and failure data exists. The approach is scalable, allowing inclusion of additional information as detailed data becomes available. The tool performs a Monte Carlo analysis to provide statistical estimates. Example results of an architecture system reliability study are summarized for an exploration system concept using heritage data from liquid-fueled expendable Saturn V/Apollo launch vehicles.

Proposal of global flood vulnerability scenarios for evaluating future potential flood losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Y.; Tanoue, M.; Watanabe, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.

2015-12-01

Flooding is one of the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters causing serious economic loss and casualties across the world (Jongman et al., 2015). Previous studies showed that the global temperature increase affects regional weather pattern, and several general circulation model (GCM) simulations suggest the increase of flood events in both frequency and magnitude in many parts of the world (Hirabayashi et al., 2013). Effective adaptation to potential flood risks under the warming climate requires an in-depth understanding of both the physical and socioeconomic contributors of the flood risk. To assess the realistic future potential flood risk, future sophisticated vulnerability scenarios associated with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are necessary. In this study we propose a new future vulnerability scenarios in mortality. Our vulnerability scenarios are constructed based on the modeled flood exposure (population potentially suffered by flooding) and a past from 1980 to 2005. All the flood fatality data were classified according to four income levels (high, mid-high, mid-low and low). Our proposed scenarios have three pathways regarding to SSPs; High efficiency (HE) scenario (SSP1, SSP4 (rich country) and SSP5), Medium efficiency (ME) scenario (SSP2), and Low efficiency (LE) scenario (SSP3 and SSP4 (poor country)). The maximum mortality protection level on each category was detected by applying exponential curve fitting with offset term. Slopes in the HE scenario are assumed to be equal to slopes estimated by regression analysis in each category. The slope in the HE scenario is defined by the mean value of all countries' slope value that is approximately -0.33 mortality decreases per year. The EM-DAT mortality data shows a decreasing trend in time in almost all of the countries. Although mortalities in some countries show an increasing trend, this is because these countries were affected by once-in-hundred-years floods after 1990's. The slope in the ME scenario are half of that in the HE scenario, and a quarter in the LE scenario. In addition, we set three categories depending on mortality level. Our proposed vulnerability scenarios would enable us to reasonably replicate self-sustained vulnerability change against flood hazard associated with the SSPs.

Economic evaluation of routine infant rotavirus immunisation program in Japan.

PubMed

Hoshi, Shu-Ling; Kondo, Masahide; Okubo, Ichiro

2017-05-04

Two rotavirus vaccines are currently available in Japan. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of routine infant rotavirus immunisation program without defining which vaccine to be evaluated, which reflects the current deliberation at the Health Science Council in charge of Immunisation and Vaccine established by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan. Three ICERs were estimated, one from payers' perspective and 2 from societal perspective depending on the scenarios to uptake vaccines. The health statuses following the birth cohort were as follows: not infected by rotavirus, asymptomatic infection, outpatients after infection, hospitalised after infection, developing encephalitis/encephalopathy followed by recovery, sequelae, and death. Costs of per course of vaccination was ¥30,000 (US$283; US$1 = ¥106). The model runs for 60 months with one month cycle. From payers' perspective, estimated ICERs were ¥6,877,000 (US$64,877) per QALY. From societal perspective, immunisation program turns out to be cost-saving for 75% simultaneous vaccination scenario, while it is at ¥337,000 (US$3,179) per QALY gained with vaccine alone scenario. The probability of rotavirus immunisation program to be under ¥5,000,000 (US$47,170) per QALY was at 19.8%, 40.7%, and 75.6% when costs per course of vaccination were set at ¥30,000 (US$283), ¥25,000 (US$236), and ¥20,000 (US$189), respectively. Rotavirus immunisation program has a potential to be cost-effective from payers' perspective and even cost-saving from societal perspective in Japan, however, caution should be taken with regard to the interpretation of the results as cost-effectiveness is critically dependent on vaccination costs.

Two alternative solar energy scenarios for Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakicenovic, N.

1982-11-01

Two limiting scenarios that lead to a sustainable energy system in Western Europe toward the end of the next century are described. The scenarios consider exclusively solar energy futures: one based on centralized solar technologies (hard scenario) and the other on decentralized user-oriented technologies (soft scenario). While both scenarios eliminate Western Europe's dependence on domestic and foreign fossil energy sources, the hard solar scenario requires substantial imports of solar produced hydrogen. Fundamental but different changes of the whole energy system, economic structure and lifestyles are necessary in order to achieve sustainable solar energy futures in the scenarios.

Controls on Mixing-Dependent Denitrification in Hyporheic Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hester, E. T.; Young, K. I.; Widdowson, M. A.

2013-12-01

Interaction of surface water and groundwater in hyporheic sediments of river systems is known to create unique biogeochemical conditions that can attenuate contaminants flowing downstream. Oxygen, carbon, and the contaminants themselves (e.g., excess nitrate) often advect together through the hyporheic zone from sources in surface water. However, the ability of the hyporheic zone to attenuate contaminants in upwelling groundwater plumes as they exit to rivers is less known. Such reactions may be more dependent on mixing of carbon and oxygen sources from surface water with contaminants from deeper groundwater. We simulated hyporheic flow cells and upwelling groundwater together with mixing-dependent denitrification of an upwelling nitrate plume in shallow riverbed sediments using MODFLOW and SEAM3D. For our first set of model scenarios, we set biogeochemical boundary conditions to be consistent with situations where only mixing-dependent denitrification occurred within the model domain. This occurred where dissolved organic carbon (DOC) advecting from surface water through hyporheic flow cells meets nitrate upwelling from deeper groundwater. This would be common where groundwater is affected by septic systems which contribute nitrate that upwells into streams that do not have significant nitrate sources from upstream. We conducted a sensitivity analysis that showed that mixing-dependent denitrification increased with parameters that increase mixing itself, such as the degree of heterogeneity of sediment hydraulic conductivity (K). Mixing-dependent denitrification also increased with certain biogeochemical boundary concentrations such as increasing DOC or decreasing dissolved oxygen (DO) advecting from surface water. For our second set of model scenarios, we set biogeochemical boundary conditions to be consistent with common situations where non-mixing-dependent denitrification also occurred within the model domain. For example, when nitrate concentrations are substantial in water advecting from surface water, non-mixing-dependent denitrification can occur within the hyporheic flow cells. This would be common where surface water and groundwater have high nitrate concentrations in agricultural areas. We conducted a sensitivity analysis for this set of model scenarios as well, to evaluate controls on the relative balance of mixing-dependent and non-mixing-dependent denitrification. We found that non-mixing-dependent denitrification often has higher potential to consume nitrate than mixing-dependent denitrification. This is because non-mixing-dependent denitrification is not confined to the relatively small mixing zone between upwelling groundwater and hyporheic flow cells, and hence often has longer residence times available for consumption of existing oxygen followed by consumption of nitrate. Nevertheless, the potential for hyporheic zones to attenuate upwelling nitrate plumes appears to be substantial, yet is variable depending on geomorphic, hydraulic, and biogeochemical conditions.

Environmental Factors' Consideration at Industrial Transportation Organization in the «Seaport - Dry port» System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muravev, Dmitri; Rakhmangulov, Aleksandr

2016-11-01

Currently, container shipping development is directly associated with an increase of warehouse areas for containers' storage. One of the most successful types of container terminal is an intermodal terminal called a dry port. Main pollution sources during the organization of intermodal transport are considered. A system of dry port parameters, which are recommended for the evaluation of different scenarios for a seaport infrastructure development at the stage of its strategic planning, is proposed in this paper. The authors have developed a method for determining the optimal values of the main dry port parameters by simulation modeling in the programming software Any- Logic. Dependencies thatwere obtained as a result of modeling experiments prove the adequacy of main selected dry port parameters for the effective scenarios' evaluation of throughput and handling capacity at existing seaports at the stage of strategic planning and a rational dry port location, allowed ensuring the improvement of the ecological situation in a port city.

Survival distributions impact the power of randomized placebo-phase design and parallel groups randomized clinical trials.

PubMed

Abrahamyan, Lusine; Li, Chuan Silvia; Beyene, Joseph; Willan, Andrew R; Feldman, Brian M

2011-03-01

The study evaluated the power of the randomized placebo-phase design (RPPD)-a new design of randomized clinical trials (RCTs), compared with the traditional parallel groups design, assuming various response time distributions. In the RPPD, at some point, all subjects receive the experimental therapy, and the exposure to placebo is for only a short fixed period of time. For the study, an object-oriented simulation program was written in R. The power of the simulated trials was evaluated using six scenarios, where the treatment response times followed the exponential, Weibull, or lognormal distributions. The median response time was assumed to be 355 days for the placebo and 42 days for the experimental drug. Based on the simulation results, the sample size requirements to achieve the same level of power were different under different response time to treatment distributions. The scenario where the response times followed the exponential distribution had the highest sample size requirement. In most scenarios, the parallel groups RCT had higher power compared with the RPPD. The sample size requirement varies depending on the underlying hazard distribution. The RPPD requires more subjects to achieve a similar power to the parallel groups design. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using the Small Ruminant Nutrition System to develop and evaluate an alternative approach to estimating the dry matter intake of goats when accounting for ruminal fiber stratification.

PubMed

Regadas Filho, J G L; Tedeschi, L O; Cannas, A; Vieira, R A M; Rodrigues, M T

2014-11-01

The first objective of this research was to assess the ability of the Small Ruminant Nutrition System (SRNS) mechanistic model to predict metabolizable energy intake (MEI) and milk yield (MY) when using a heterogeneous fiber pool scenario (GnG1), compared with a traditional, homogeneous scenario (G1). The second objective was to evaluate an alternative approach to estimating the dry matter intake (DMI) of goats to be used in the SRNS model. The GnG1 scenario considers an age-dependent fractional transference rate for fiber particles from the first ruminal fiber pool (raft) to an escapable pool (λr), and that this second ruminal fiber pool (i.e., escapable pool) follows an age-independent fractional escape rate for fiber particles (ke). Scenario G1 adopted only a single fractional passage rate (kp). All parameters were estimated individually by using equations published in the literature, except for 2 passage rate equations in the G1 scenario: 1 developed with sheep data (G1-S) and another developed with goat data (G1-G). The alternative approach to estimating DMI was based on an optimization process using a series of dietary constraints. The DMI, MEI, and MY estimated for the GnG1 and G1 scenarios were compared with the results of an independent dataset (n=327) that contained information regarding DMI, MEI, MY, and milk and dietary compositions. The evaluation of the scenarios was performed using the coefficient of determination (R(2)) between the observed and predicted values, mean bias (MB), bias correction factor (Cb), and concordance correlation coefficient. The MEI estimated by the GnG1 scenario yielded precise and accurate values (R(2) = 082; MB = 0.21 Mcal/d; Cb = 0.98) similar to those of the G1-S (R(2) = 0.85; MB = 0.10 Mcal/d; Cb=0.99) and G1-G (R(2) = 0.84; MB = 0.18 Mcal/d; Cb = 0.98) scenarios. The results were also similar for the MY, but a substantial MB was found as follows: GnG1 (R(2) = 0.74; MB = 0.70 kg/d; Cb = 0.79), G1-S (R(2) = 0.71; MB = 0.58 kg/d(1); Cb = 0.85) and G1-G (R(2) = 0.71; MB = 0.65 kg/d; Cb = 0.82). The alternative approach for DMI prediction provided better results with the G1-G scenario (R(2)=0.88; MB = -71.67 g/d; Cb = 0.98). We concluded that the GnG1 scenario is valid within mechanistic models such as the SRNS and that the alternative approach for estimating DMI is reasonable and can be used in diet formulations for goats. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios

PubMed Central

Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

2016-01-01

The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual-level preventive behaviours combined with the application of larvicides to manage the risk of WNV infection are the interventions most acceptable and effective at reaching current management objectives now and under future theoretical transmission risk. PMID:27494136

Children's neural processing of moral scenarios provides insight into the formation and reduction of in-group biases.

PubMed

Meidenbauer, Kimberly L; Cowell, Jason M; Decety, Jean

2018-04-25

Survival is dependent on sociality within groups which ensure sustenance and protection. From an early age, children show a natural tendency to sort people into groups and discriminate among them. The computations guiding evaluation of third-party behaviors are complex, requiring integration of intent, consequences, and knowledge of group affiliation. This study examined how perceiving third-party morally laden behavior influences children's likelihood to exhibit or reduce group bias. Following a minimal group paradigm assignment, young children (4-7 years) performed a moral evaluation task where group affiliations and moral actions were systematically juxtaposed, so that they were exposed to disproportionately antisocial in-group and prosocial out-group scenarios. Electroencephalography was recorded, and group preference was assessed with a resource allocation game before and after the EEG session. Across all children, evaluations of others' moral actions arose from early and automatic processing (~150 ms), followed by later interactive processing of affiliation and moral valence (~500 ms). Importantly, individual differences in bias manifestation and attitude change were predicted by children's neural responses. Children with high baseline bias selectively exhibited a rapid detection (~200 ms) of scenarios inconsistent with their bias (in-group harm and out-group help). Changes in bias corresponded to distinct patterns in longer latency neural processing. These new developmental neuroscience findings elucidate the multifaceted processing involved in moral evaluation of others' actions, their group affiliations, the nature of the integration of both into full judgments, and the relation of individual differences in neural responses to social decision-making in childhood. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Straight-run vs. sex separate rearing for two broiler genetic lines Part 2: Economic analysis and processing advantages.

PubMed

Da Costa, M J; Colson, G; Frost, T J; Halley, J; Pesti, G M

2017-07-01

The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the effects of raising broilers under sex separate and straight-run conditions for 2 broiler genetic lines. One-day-old Ross 308 and Ross 708 chicks (n = 1,344) were sex separated and placed in 48 pens according to rearing type: sex separate (28 males or 28 females) or straight-run (14 males + 14 females). There were 3 dietary phases: starter (zero to 17 d), grower (17 to 32 d), and finisher (32 to 48 d). Bird individual BW and group feed intakes were measured at 12, 17, 25, 32, 42, and 48 d to evaluate performance. At 33, 43, and 49 d 4 birds per pen (straight-run pens 2 males + 2 females) were sampled for carcass yield evaluation. Data were analyzed using linear and non-linear regression in order to estimate feed intake and cut-up weights at 3 separate market weights (1,700, 2,700, and 3,700 g). Returns over feed cost were estimated for a 1.8 million broiler complex for each rearing system and under 9 feed/meat price scenarios. Overall, rearing birds that were sex separated resulted in extra income that ranged from ${\\$}$48,824 to ${\\$}$330,300 per week, depending on the market targeted and feed and meat price scenarios. Sex separation was shown to be especially important in disadvantageous scenarios in which feed prices were high. Gains from sex separation were markedly higher for the Ross 708 than for the Ross 308 broilers. Bird variability also was evaluated at the 3 separate market ages under narrow ranges of BW that were targeted. Straight-run birds decreased the number of birds present in the desired range. Depending on market weight, straight-run rearing resulted in 9.1 to 16.6% fewer birds than sex separate rearing to meet marketing goals. It was concluded that sex separation can result in increased company profitability and have possible beneficial effects at the processing plant due to increased bird uniformity. © 2017 Poultry Science Association Inc.

Health Risk Assessment for Exposure to Benzene in Petroleum Refinery Environments

PubMed Central

Edokpolo, Benjamin; Yu, Qiming Jimmy; Connell, Des

2015-01-01

The health risk resulting from benzene exposure in petroleum refineries was calculated using data from the scientific literature from various countries throughout the world. The exposure data was collated into four scenarios from petroleum refinery environments and plotted as cumulative probability distributions (CPD) plots. Health risk was evaluated for each scenario using the Hazard Quotient (HQ) at 50% (CEXP50) and 95% (CEXP95) exposure levels. Benzene levels were estimated to pose a significant risk with HQ50 > 1 and HQ95 > 1 for workers exposed to benzene as base estimates for petroleum refinery workers (Scenario 1), petroleum refinery workers evaluated with personal samplers in Bulgarian refineries (Scenario 2B) and evaluated using air inside petroleum refineries in Bulgarian refineries (Scenario 3B). HQ50 < 1 were calculated for petroleum refinery workers with personal samplers in Italian refineries (Scenario 2A), air inside petroleum refineries (Scenario 3A) and air outside petroleum refineries (Scenario 4) in India and Taiwan indicating little possible adverse health effects. Also, HQ95 was < 1 for Scenario 4 however potential risk was evaluated for Scenarios 2A and 3A with HQ95 > 1. The excess Cancer risk (CR) for lifetime exposure to benzene for all the scenarios was evaluated using the Slope Factor and Overall Risk Probability (ORP) methods. The result suggests a potential cancer risk for exposure to benzene in all the scenarios. However, there is a higher cancer risk at 95% (CEXP95) for petroleum refinery workers (2B) with a CR of 48,000 per 106 and exposure to benzene in air inside petroleum refineries (3B) with a CR of 28,000 per 106. PMID:25588154

Change in Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance due to General Relativistic Precession in Small Solar System Bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekhar, Aswin; Valsecchi, Giovanni B.; Asher, David; Werner, Stephanie; Vaubaillon, Jeremie; Li, Gongjie

2017-06-01

One of the greatest successes of Einstein's General Theory of Relativity (GR) was the correct prediction of the perihelion precession of Mercury. The closed form expression to compute this precession tells us that substantial GR precession would occur only if the bodies have a combination of both moderately small perihelion distance and semi-major axis. Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) is a quantity which helps us to understand the closest proximity of two orbits in space. Hence evaluating MOID is crucial to understand close encounters and collision scenarios better. In this work, we look at the possible scenarios where a small GR precession in argument of pericentre can create substantial changes in MOID for small bodies ranging from meteoroids to comets and asteroids.Previous works have looked into neat analytical techniques to understand different collision scenarios and we use those standard expressions to compute MOID analytically. We find the nature of this mathematical function is such that a relatively small GR precession can lead to drastic changes in MOID values depending on the initial value of argument of pericentre. Numerical integrations were done with the MERCURY package incorporating GR code to test the same effects. A numerical approach showed the same interesting relationship (as shown by analytical theory) between values of argument of pericentre and the peaks or dips in MOID values. There is an overall agreement between both analytical and numerical methods.We find that GR precession could play an important role in the calculations pertaining to MOID and close encounter scenarios in the case of certain small solar system bodies (depending on their initial orbital elements) when long term impact risk possibilities are considered. Previous works have looked into impact probabilities and collision scenarios on planets from different small body populations. This work aims to find certain sub-sets of small bodies where GR could play an interesting role. Certain parallels are drawn between the cases of asteroids, comets and small perihelion distance meteoroid streams.

FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

EPA Science Inventory

Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

Evidence and future scenarios of a low-carbon energy transition in Central America: a case study in Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barido, Diego Ponce de Leon; Johnston, Josiah; Moncada, Maria V.; Callaway, Duncan; Kammen, Daniel M.

2015-10-01

The global carbon emissions budget over the next decades depends critically on the choices made by fast-growing emerging economies. Few studies exist, however, that develop country-specific energy system integration insights that can inform emerging economies in this decision-making process. High spatial- and temporal-resolution power system planning is central to evaluating decarbonization scenarios, but obtaining the required data and models can be cost prohibitive, especially for researchers in low, lower-middle income economies. Here, we use Nicaragua as a case study to highlight the importance of high-resolution open access data and modeling platforms to evaluate fuel-switching strategies and their resulting cost of power under realistic technology, policy, and cost scenarios (2014-2030). Our results suggest that Nicaragua could cost-effectively achieve a low-carbon grid (≥80%, based on non-large hydro renewable energy generation) by 2030 while also pursuing multiple development objectives. Regional cooperation (balancing) enables the highest wind and solar generation (18% and 3% by 2030, respectively), at the least cost (US127 MWh-1). Potentially risky resources (geothermal and hydropower) raise system costs but do not significantly hinder decarbonization. Oil price sensitivity scenarios suggest renewable energy to be a more cost-effective long-term investment than fuel oil, even under the assumption of prevailing cheap oil prices. Nicaragua’s options illustrate the opportunities and challenges of power system decarbonization for emerging economies, and the key role that open access data and modeling platforms can play in helping develop low-carbon transition pathways.

Detecting and modelling structures on the micro and the macro scales: Assessing their effects on solute transport behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haslauer, C. P.; Bárdossy, A.; Sudicky, E. A.

2017-09-01

This paper demonstrates quantitative reasoning to separate the dataset of spatially distributed variables into different entities and subsequently characterize their geostatistical properties, properly. The main contribution of the paper is a statistical based algorithm that matches the manual distinction results. This algorithm is based on measured data and is generally applicable. In this paper, it is successfully applied at two datasets of saturated hydraulic conductivity (K) measured at the Borden (Canada) and the Lauswiesen (Germany) aquifers. The boundary layer was successfully delineated at Borden despite its only mild heterogeneity and only small statistical differences between the divided units. The methods are verified with the more heterogeneous Lauswiesen aquifer K data-set, where a boundary layer has previously been delineated. The effects of the macro- and the microstructure on solute transport behaviour are evaluated using numerical solute tracer experiments. Within the microscale structure, both Gaussian and non-Gaussian models of spatial dependence of K are evaluated. The effects of heterogeneity both on the macro- and the microscale are analysed using numerical tracer experiments based on four scenarios: including or not including the macroscale structures and optimally fitting a Gaussian or a non-Gaussian model for the spatial dependence in the micro-structure. The paper shows that both micro- and macro-scale structures are important, as in each of the four possible geostatistical scenarios solute transport behaviour differs meaningfully.

Neural Network approach to assess the thermal affected zone around the injection well in a groundwater heat pump system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo Russo, Stefano; Taddia, Glenda; Verda, Vittorio

2014-05-01

The common use of well doublets for groundwater-sourced heating or cooling results in a thermal plume of colder or warmer re-injected groundwater known as the Thermal Affected Zone(TAZ). The plumes may be regarded either as a potential anthropogenic geothermal resource or as pollution, depending on downstream aquifer usage. A fundamental aspect in groundwater heat pump (GWHP) plant design is the correct evaluation of the thermally affected zone that develops around the injection well. Temperature anomalies are detected through numerical methods. Crucial elements in the process of thermal impact assessment are the sizes of installations, their position, the heating/cooling load of the building, and the temperature drop/increase imposed on the re-injected water flow. For multiple-well schemes, heterogeneous aquifers, or variable heating and cooling loads, numerical models that simulate groundwater and heat transport are needed. These tools should consider numerous scenarios obtained considering different heating/cooling loads, positions, and operating modes. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models are widely used in this field because they offer the opportunity to calculate the time evolution of the thermal plume produced by a heat pump, depending on the characteristics of the subsurface and the heat pump. Nevertheless, these models require large computational efforts, and therefore their use may be limited to a reasonable number of scenarios. Neural networks could represent an alternative to CFD for assessing the TAZ under different scenarios referring to a specific site. The use of neural networks is proposed to determine the time evolution of the groundwater temperature downstream of an installation as a function of the possible utilization profiles of the heat pump. The main advantage of neural network modeling is the possibility of evaluating a large number of scenarios in a very short time, which is very useful for the preliminary analysis of future multiple installations. The neural network is trained using the results from a CFD model (FEFLOW) applied to the installation at Politecnico di Torino (Italy) under several operating conditions.

Preliminary evaluation of solution-mining intrusion into a salt-dome repository

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1981-06-01

This report is the product of the work of an ONWI task force to evaluate inadvertant human intrusion into a salt dome repository by solution mining. It summarizes the work in the following areas: a general review of the levels of defense that could reduce both the likelihood and potential consequences of human intrusion into a salt dome repository; evaluation of a hypothetical intrusion scenario and its consequences; recommendation for further studies. The conclusions of this task force report can be summarized as follows: (1) it is not possible at present to establish with certainty that solution mining is crediblemore » as a human-intrusion event. The likelihood of such an intrusion will depend on the effectiveness of the preventive measures; (2) an example analysis based on the realistic approach is presented in this report; it concluded that the radiological consequences are strongly dependent upon the mode of radionuclide release from the waste form, time after emplacement, package design, impurities in the host salt, the amount of a repository intercepted, the solution mining cavity form, the length of time over which solution mining occurs, the proportion of contaminated salt source for human consumption compared to other sources, and the method of salt purification for culinary purposes; (3) worst case scenarios done by other studies suggest considerable potential for exposures to man while preliminary evaluations of more realistic cases suggest significantly reduced potential consequences. Mathematical model applications to process systems, guided by more advanced assumptions about human intrusion into geomedia, will shed more light on the potential for concerns and the degree to which mitigative measures will be required.« less

Using Regional Climate Projections to Guide Grassland Community Restoration in the Face of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Kane, Kristin; Debinski, Diane M.; Anderson, Chris; Scasta, John D.; Engle, David M.; Miller, James R.

2017-01-01

Grassland loss has been extensive worldwide, endangering the associated biodiversity and human well-being that are both dependent on these ecosystems. Ecologists have developed approaches to restore grassland communities and many have been successful, particularly where soils are rich, precipitation is abundant, and seeds of native plant species can be obtained. However, climate change adds a new filter needed in planning grassland restoration efforts. Potential responses of species to future climate conditions must also be considered in planning for long-term resilience. We demonstrate this methodology using a site-specific model and a maximum entropy approach to predict changes in habitat suitability for 33 grassland plant species in the tallgrass prairie region of the U.S. using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios A1B and A2. The A1B scenario predicts an increase in temperature from 1.4 to 6.4°C, whereas the A2 scenario predicts temperature increases from 2 to 5.4°C and much greater CO2 emissions than the A1B scenario. Both scenarios predict these changes to occur by the year 2100. Model projections for 2040 under the A1B scenario predict that all but three modeled species will lose ~90% of their suitable habitat. Then by 2080, all species except for one will lose ~90% of their suitable habitat. Models run using the A2 scenario predict declines in habitat for just four species by 2040, but models predict that by 2080, habitat suitability will decline for all species. The A2 scenario appears based on our results to be the less severe climate change scenario for our species. Our results demonstrate that many common species, including grasses, forbs, and shrubs, are sensitive to climate change. Thus, grassland restoration alternatives should be evaluated based upon the long-term viability in the context of climate change projections and risk of plant species loss. PMID:28536591

Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair; Mander, Sarah; Littleton, Emma W.; Welfle, Andrew; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2018-04-01

Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is heavily relied upon in scenarios of future emissions that are consistent with limiting global mean temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial. These temperature limits are defined in the Paris Agreement in order to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Here, we explore the use of BECCS technologies in a reference scenario and three low emission scenarios generated by an integrated assessment model (IMAGE). Using these scenarios we investigate the feasibility of key implicit and explicit assumptions about these BECCS technologies, including biomass resource, land use, CO2 storage capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment rate. In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO2 storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO2 storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected). Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO2 removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO2 storage capacity.

An ecologically based model of alcohol-consumption decision making: evidence for the discriminative and predictive role of contextual reward and punishment information.

PubMed

Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R

2009-05-01

Using insights from Ecological Systems Theory and Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory, the current study assessed the utility of a series of hypothetical role-based alcohol-consumption scenarios that varied in their presentation of rewarding and punishing information. The scenarios, along with measures of impulsive sensation seeking and a self-report of weekly alcohol consumption, were administered to a sample of alcohol-dependent and non-alcohol-dependent college-age individuals (N = 170). The results showed scenario attendance decisions were largely unaffected by alcohol-dependence status and variations in contextual reward and punishment information. In contrast to the attendance findings, the results for the alcohol-consumption decisions showed alcohol-dependent individuals reported a greater frequency of deciding to drink, as well as indicating greater alcohol consumption in the contexts of complementary rewarding or nonpunishing information. Regression results provided evidence for the criterion-related validity of scenario outcomes in an account of diagnostic alcohol problems. The results are discussed in terms of the conceptual and predictive gains associated with an assessment approach to alcohol-consumption decision making that combines situational information organized and balanced through the frameworks of Ecological Systems Theory and Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory.

Life cycle analyses of CO2, energy, and cost for four different routes of microalgal bioenergy conversion.

PubMed

Ventura, Jey-R S; Yang, Benqin; Lee, Yong-Woo; Lee, Kisay; Jahng, Deokjin

2013-06-01

With a target production of 1000 ton of dry algae/yr, lipid content of 30 wt.%, and productivity of 30 g/m(2)-d in a 340-day annual operation, four common scenarios of microalgae bioenergy routes were assessed in terms of cost, energy, and CO2 inputs and outputs. Scenario 1 (biodiesel production), Scenario 2 (Scenario 1 with integrated anaerobic digestion system), Scenario 3 (biogas production), and Scenario 4 (supercritical gasification) were evaluated. Scenario 4 outperformed other scenarios in terms of net energy production (1282.42 kWh/ton algae) and CO2 removal (1.32 ton CO2/ton algae) while Scenario 2 surpassed the other three scenarios in terms of net cost. Scenario 1 produced the lowest energy while Scenario 3 was the most expensive bioenergy system. This study evaluated critical parameters that could direct the proper design of the microalgae bioenergy system with an efficient energy production, CO2 removal, and economic feasibility. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pickens, Bradley A.; Marcus, Jeffrey F.; Carpenter, John P.; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J.; Collazo, Jaime A.

2017-01-01

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010–2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common <600 m from urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation.

Investigation of maximum local specific absorption rate in 7 T magnetic resonance with respect to load size by use of electromagnetic simulations.

PubMed

Tiberi, Gianluigi; Fontana, Nunzia; Costagli, Mauro; Stara, Riccardo; Biagi, Laura; Symms, Mark Roger; Monorchio, Agostino; Retico, Alessandra; Cosottini, Mirco; Tosetti, Michela

2015-07-01

Local specific absorption rate (SAR) evaluation in ultra high field (UHF) magnetic resonance (MR) systems is a major concern. In fact, at UHF, radiofrequency (RF) field inhomogeneity generates hot-spots that could cause localized tissue heating. Unfortunately, local SAR measurements are not available in present MR systems; thus, electromagnetic simulations must be performed for RF fields and SAR analysis. In this study, we used three-dimensional full-wave numerical electromagnetic simulations to investigate the dependence of local SAR at 7.0 T with respect to subject size in two different scenarios: surface coil loaded by adult and child calves and quadrature volume coil loaded by adult and child heads. In the surface coil scenario, maximum local SAR decreased with decreasing load size, provided that the RF magnetic fields for the different load sizes were scaled to achieve the same slice average value. On the contrary, in the volume coil scenario, maximum local SAR was up to 15% higher in children than in adults. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Health.

PubMed

Orru, H; Ebi, K L; Forsberg, B

2017-12-01

Air pollution significantly affects health, causing up to 7 million premature deaths annually with an even larger number of hospitalizations and days of sick leave. Climate change could alter the dispersion of primary pollutants, particularly particulate matter, and intensify the formation of secondary pollutants, such as near-surface ozone. The purpose of the review is to evaluate the recent evidence on the impacts of climate change on air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts and identify knowledge gaps for future research. Several studies modelled future ozone and particulate matter concentrations and calculated the resulting health impacts under different climate scenarios. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase in most studies; however, results differ by region, assumed climate change scenario and other factors such as population and background emissions. This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts. The results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty. Studies primarily focused on mortality; projections on the effects on morbidity are needed.

Safety assessment methodology in management of spent sealed sources.

PubMed

Mahmoud, Narmine Salah

2005-02-14

Environmental hazards can be caused from radioactive waste after their disposal. It was therefore important that safety assessment methodologies be developed and established to study and estimate the possible hazards, and institute certain safety methodologies that lead and prevent the evolution of these hazards. Spent sealed sources are specific type of radioactive waste. According to IAEA definition, spent sealed sources are unused sources because of activity decay, damage, misuse, loss, or theft. Accidental exposure of humans from spent sealed sources can occur at the moment they become spent and before their disposal. Because of that reason, safety assessment methodologies were tailored to suit the management of spent sealed sources. To provide understanding and confidence of this study, validation analysis was undertaken by considering the scenario of an accident that occurred in Egypt, June 2000 (the Meet-Halfa accident from an iridium-192 source). The text of this work includes consideration related to the safety assessment approaches of spent sealed sources which constitutes assessment context, processes leading an active source to be spent, accident scenarios, mathematical models for dose calculations, and radiological consequences and regulatory criteria. The text also includes a validation study, which was carried out by evaluating a theoretical scenario compared to the real scenario of Meet-Halfa accident depending on the clinical assessment of affected individuals.

The evaluation of the climate change effects on maize and fennel cultivation by means of an hydrological physically based model: the case study of an irrigated district of southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfante, A.; Alfieri, M. S.; Basile, A.; De Lorenzi, F.; Fiorentino, N.; Menenti, M.

2012-04-01

The effect of climate change on irrigated agricultural systems will be different from area to area depending on some factors as: (i) water availability, (ii) crop water demand (iii) soil hydrological behavior and (iv) irrigation management strategy. The adaptation of irrigated crop systems to future climate change can be supported by physically based model which simulate the water and heat fluxes in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system. The aim of this work is to evaluate the effects of climate change on the heat and water balance of a maize-fennel rotation. This was applied to a on-demand irrigation district of Southern Italy ("Destra Sele", Campania Region, 22.645 ha). Two climate scenarios were considered, current climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2021-2050), the latter constructed by applying statistical downscaling to GCMs scenarios. For each climate scenario the soil moisture regime of the selected study area was calculated by means of a simulation model of the soil-water-atmosphere system (SWAP). Synthetic indicators of the soil water regimes (e.g., crop water stress index - CWSI, available water content) have been calculated and impacts evaluated taking into account the yield response functions to water availability of different cultivars. Different irrigation delivering strategies were also simulated. The hydrological model SWAP was applied to the representative soils of the whole area (20 soil units) for which the soil hydraulic properties were derived by means of pedo-transfer function (HYPRES) tested and validated on the typical soils in the study area. Upper boundary conditions were derived from two climate scenarios, i.e. current and future. Unit gradient in soil water potential was set as lower boundary condition. Crop-specific input data and model parameters were derived from field experiments, in the same area, where the SWAP model was calibrated and validated. The results obtained have shown a significant increase of CWSI in the future climate scenario, and some spatial patterns strongly influenced by the soils characteristics. Adaptability of different maize cultivars has been evaluated. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: Plant Adaptative capacity, SWAP, Climate changes, Maize, Fennel

Models to compare management options for a protogynous fish.

PubMed

Heppell, Selina S; Heppell, Scott A; Coleman, Felicia C; Koenig, Christopher C

2006-02-01

Populations of gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a hermaphroditic grouper, have experienced a dramatic shift in sex ratio over the past 25 years due to a decline in older age classes. The highly female-skewed sex ratio can be predicted as a consequence of increased fishing mortality that truncates the age distribution, and raises some concern about the overall fitness of the population. Management efforts may need to be directed toward maintenance of sex ratio as well as stock size, with evaluations of recruitment based on sex ratio or male stock size in addition to the traditional female-based stock-recruitment relationship. We used two stochastic, age-structured models to heuristically compare the effects of reducing fishing mortality on different life history stages and the relative impact of reductions in fertilization rates that may occur with highly skewed sex ratios. Our response variables included population size, sex ratio, lost egg fertility, and female spawning stock biomass. Population growth rates were highest for scenarios that reduced mortality for female gag (nearshore closure), while improved sex ratios were obtained most quickly with spawning reserves. The effect of reduced fertility through sex ratio bias was generally low but depended on the management scenario employed. Our results demonstrate the utility of evaluation of fishery management scenarios through model analysis and simulation, the synergistic interaction of life history and response to changes in mortality rates, and the importance of defining management goals.

Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neumeyer, Charles; Goldston, Robert

Abstract: The Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform anmore » EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.« less

Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

DOE PAGES

Neumeyer, Charles; Goldston, Robert

2016-04-28

Abstract: The Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform anmore » EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.« less

A framework to analyze emissions implications of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Future year emissions depend highly on the evolution of the economy, technology and current and future regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze various technology development pathways and societal change while considering existing regulations and future uncertainty in regulations and evaluate resulting emissions growth patterns. The framework integrates EPA’s energy systems model with an economic Input-Output (I/O) Life Cycle Assessment model. The EPAUS9r MARKAL database is assembled from a set of technologies to represent the U.S. energy system within MARKAL bottom-up technology rich energy modeling framework. The general state of the economy and consequent demands for goods and services from these sectors are taken exogenously in MARKAL. It is important to characterize exogenous inputs about the economy to appropriately represent the industrial sector outlook for each of the scenarios and case studies evaluated. An economic input-output (I/O) model of the US economy is constructed to link up with MARKAL. The I/O model enables user to change input requirements (e.g. energy intensity) for different sectors or the share of consumer income expended on a given good. This gives end-users a mechanism for modeling change in the two dimensions of technological progress and consumer preferences that define the future scenarios. The framework will then be extended to include environmental I/O framework to track life cycle emissions associated

Evaluation of GE-167 Silicone Rubber (RTV) For Possible Service As A Moisture-Barrier For Certain Strain Gage Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hare, David A.; Moore, Thomas C., Sr.

2000-01-01

The Langley Research Center uses strain gages in a wide variety of demanding test environments. Strain gage installations, depending on the testing scenario, may see high temperatures, cryogenic temperature, moisture accumulation, mechanical abuse, or any combination of these conditions. At Langley, there is often a need to provide protection for strain gages against moisture and mechanical abuse, especially when large-scale, harsh environment testing is to be encountered. This technical memorandum discusses the evaluation of a room temperature curing silicone rubber sealant manufactured by the General Electric Company for consideration as a moisture-barrier for certain strain gage installations.

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

EPA Science Inventory

This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit m...

Remark on Majorana CP phases in neutrino mixing and leptogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitabayashi, Teruyuki; Koizumi, Naoto

2014-05-01

We estimate Majorana CP phases for a simple flavor neutrino mixing matrix which has been reported by Qu and Ma. Sizes of Majorana CP phases are evaluated in the study of the neutrinoless double beta decay and a particular leptogenesis scenario. We find the dependence of the physically relevant Majorana CP phase on the mass of lightest right-handed neutrino in the minimal seesaw model and the effective Majorana neutrino mass which is related with the half-life of the neutrinoless double beta decay.

The influence of bed friction variability due to land cover on storm-driven barrier island morphodynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Passeri, Davina L.; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, Scott C.

2018-01-01

Variations in bed friction due to land cover type have the potential to influence morphologic change during storm events; the importance of these variations can be studied through numerical simulation and experimentation at locations with sufficient observational data to initialize realistic scenarios, evaluate model accuracy and guide interpretations. Two-dimensional in the horizontal plane (2DH) morphodynamic (XBeach) simulations were conducted to assess morphodynamic sensitivity to spatially varying bed friction at Dauphin Island, AL using hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005) as experimental test cases. For each storm, three bed friction scenarios were simulated: (1) a constant Chezy coefficient across land and water, (2) a constant Chezy coefficient across land and depth-dependent Chezy coefficients across water, and (3) spatially varying Chezy coefficients across land based on land use/land cover (LULC) data and depth-dependent Chezy coefficients across water. Modeled post-storm bed elevations were compared qualitatively and quantitatively with post-storm lidar data. Results showed that implementing spatially varying bed friction influenced the ability of XBeach to accurately simulate morphologic change during both storms. Accounting for frictional effects due to large-scale variations in vegetation and development reduced cross-barrier sediment transport and captured overwash and breaching more accurately. Model output from the spatially varying friction scenarios was used to examine the need for an existing sediment transport limiter, the influence of pre-storm topography and the effects of water level gradients on storm-driven morphodynamics.

Airborne Evaluation and Demonstration of a Time-Based Airborne Inter-Arrival Spacing Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lohr, Gary W.; Oseguera-Lohr, Rosa M.; Abbott, Terence S.; Capron, William R.; Howell, Charles T.

2005-01-01

An airborne tool has been developed that allows an aircraft to obtain a precise inter-arrival time-based spacing interval from the preceding aircraft. The Advanced Terminal Area Approach Spacing (ATAAS) tool uses Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data to compute speed commands for the ATAAS-equipped aircraft to obtain this inter-arrival spacing behind another aircraft. The tool was evaluated in an operational environment at the Chicago O'Hare International Airport and in the surrounding terminal area with three participating aircraft flying fixed route area navigation (RNAV) paths and vector scenarios. Both manual and autothrottle speed management were included in the scenarios to demonstrate the ability to use ATAAS with either method of speed management. The results on the overall delivery precision of the tool, based on a target spacing of 90 seconds, were a mean of 90.8 seconds with a standard deviation of 7.7 seconds. The results for the RNAV and vector cases were, respectively, M=89.3, SD=4.9 and M=91.7, SD=9.0.

Greenhouse gas emissions and production cost of ethanol produced from biosyngas fermentation process.

PubMed

Roy, Poritosh; Dutta, Animesh; Deen, Bill

2015-09-01

Life cycle (LC) of ethanol has been evaluated to determine the environmental and economical viability of ethanol that was derived from biosyngas fermentation process (gasification-biosynthesis). Four scenarios [S1: untreated (raw), S2: treated (torrefied); S3: untreated-chemical looping gasification (CLG), S4: treated-CLG] were considered. The simulated biosyngas composition was used in this evaluation process. The GHG emissions and production cost varied from 1.19 to 1.32 kg-CO2 e/L and 0.78 to 0.90$/L, respectively, which were found to be dependent on the scenarios. The environmental and economical viability was found be improved when untreated feedstock was used instead of treated feedstock. Although the GHG emissions slightly reduced in the case of CLG process, production cost was nominally increased because of the cost incurred by the use of CaO. This study revealed that miscanthus is a promising feedstock for the ethanol industry, even if it is grown on marginal land, which can help abate GHG emissions. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated optimisation technique based on computer-aided capacity and safety evaluation for managing downstream lane-drop merging area of signalised junctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, CHAI; Yiik Diew, WONG

2017-02-01

This study provides an integrated strategy, encompassing microscopic simulation, safety assessment, and multi-attribute decision-making, to optimize traffic performance at downstream merging area of signalized intersections. A Fuzzy Cellular Automata (FCA) model is developed to replicate microscopic movement and merging behavior. Based on simulation experiment, the proposed FCA approach is able to provide capacity and safety evaluation of different traffic scenarios. The results are then evaluated through data envelopment analysis (DEA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Optimized geometric layout and control strategies are then suggested for various traffic conditions. An optimal lane-drop distance that is dependent on traffic volume and speed limit can thus be established at the downstream merging area.

Exploring the Structure of Human Defensive Responses from Judgments of Threat Scenarios

PubMed Central

Harrison, Laura A.; Ahn, Curie; Adolphs, Ralph

2015-01-01

How humans react to threats is a topic of broad theoretical importance, and also relevant for understanding anxiety disorders. Many animal threat reactions exhibit a common structure, a finding supported by human evaluations of written threat scenarios that parallel patterns of rodent defensive behavior to actual threats. Yet the factors that underlie these shared behavioral patterns remain unclear. Dimensional accounts rooted in Darwin’s conception of antithesis explain many defensive behaviors. Across species, it is also clear that defensive reactions depend on specific situational factors, a feature long emphasized by psychological appraisal theories. Our study sought to extend prior investigations of human judgments of threat to a broader set of threats, including natural disasters, threats from animals, and psychological (as opposed to physical) threats. Our goal was to test whether dimensional and specific patterns of threat evaluation replicate across different threat classes. 85 healthy adult subjects selected descriptions of defensive behaviors that indicated how they would react to 29 threatening scenarios. Scenarios differed with respect to ten factors, e.g., perceived dangerousness or escapability. Across scenarios, we correlated these factor ratings with the pattern of defensive behaviors subjects endorsed. A decision tree hierarchically organized these correlation patterns to successfully predict each scenario’s most common reaction, both for the original sample of subjects and a separate replication group (n = 22). At the top of the decision tree, degree of dangerousness interacted with threat type (physical or psychological) to predict dimensional approach/avoidance behavior. Subordinate nodes represented specific defensive responses evoked by particular contexts. Our ecological approach emphasizes the interplay of situational factors in evoking a broad range of threat reactions. Future studies could test predictions made by our results to help understand pathological threat processing, such as seen in anxiety disorders, and could begin to test underlying neural mechanisms. PMID:26296201

[Foreign dentures and dental tourism--willingness-to-pay and factors influencing the demand for foreign dental prosthesis in Germany].

PubMed

Köberlein, J; Klingenberger, D

2011-07-01

With the progressive realisation of the single European market, public interest has been directed towards cross-border healthcare services to an increasing extent. More and more dentures are being imported into Germany from foreign countries. Furthermore, patients are becoming ever more mobile, travelling to other countries to receive prosthetic treatment from dentists. The objective of this evaluation was to determine by means of a dedicated questionnaire the patients' individual preferences for foreign dentures and the potential savings. 1 368 individuals between the ages of 30 and 75 years were interviewed within a representative omnibus survey. The evaluation of the individual willingness-to-pay included 4 treatment scenarios, which were assessed by the participants in a "bidding game". Participants could choose between a "crown scenario" and an "implant scenario", both with the subcategories "foreign dentures" and "dental tourism". The direct comparison revealed a preference for the "foreign dentures" option over "dental tourism". Average willingness-to-pay for the dental tourism option in the crown scenario was calculated as 80 Euro, and in the implant scenario as 280 Euro less in comparison with the willingness-to-pay for the foreign dentures option. The willingness to switch to a less expensive dentist was one of the main determinants in the causal explanation for the variance in willingness-to-pay. Quality proved to be the decisive criterion and was indicated by 92.4% participants. A lower price for dentures played a subordinate role and was only stated as the decisive factor by 31.1% participants. In conclusion, the results clearly indicate that the decision for or against foreign dentures and the extent of willingness-to-pay depends on a range of criteria, of which "price" is only one and not the decisive factor. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

SAFRR tsunami scenario: Impacts on California ecosystems, species, marine natural resources, and fisheries: Chapter G in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brosnan, Deborah; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick; Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile

2014-01-01

We evaluate the effects of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems, species, natural resources, and fisheries. We discuss mitigation and preparedness approaches that can be useful in Tsunami planning. The chapter provides an introduction to the role of ecosystems and natural resources in tsunami events (Section 1). A separate section focuses on specific impacts of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems and endangered species (Section 2). A section on commercial fisheries and the fishing fleet (Section 3) documents the plausible effects on California’s commercial fishery resources, fishing fleets, and communities. Sections 2 and 3 each include practical preparedness options for communities and suggestions on information needs or research.Our evaluation indicates that many low-lying coastal habitats, including beaches, marshes and sloughs, rivers and waterways connected to the sea, as well as nearshore submarine habitats will be damaged by the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Beach erosion and complex or high volumes of tsunami-generated debris would pose major challenges for ecological communities. Several endangered species and protected areas are at risk. Commercial fisheries and fishing fleets will be affected directly by the tsunami and indirectly by dependencies on infrastructure that is damaged. There is evidence that in some areas intact ecosystems, notably sand dunes, will act as natural defenses against the tsunami waves. However, ecosystems do not provide blanket protection against tsunami surge. The consequences of ecological and natural resource damage are estimated in the millions of dollars. These costs are driven partly by the loss of ecosystem services, as well as cumulative and follow-on impacts where, for example, increased erosion during the tsunami can in turn lead to subsequent damage and loss to coastal properties. Recovery of ecosystems, natural resources and fisheries is likely to be lengthy and expensive. Preparedness is key to enhancing resilience to ecological impacts.

A phenomenological biological dose model for proton therapy based on linear energy transfer spectra.

PubMed

Rørvik, Eivind; Thörnqvist, Sara; Stokkevåg, Camilla H; Dahle, Tordis J; Fjaera, Lars Fredrik; Ytre-Hauge, Kristian S

2017-06-01

The relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of protons varies with the radiation quality, quantified by the linear energy transfer (LET). Most phenomenological models employ a linear dependency of the dose-averaged LET (LET d ) to calculate the biological dose. However, several experiments have indicated a possible non-linear trend. Our aim was to investigate if biological dose models including non-linear LET dependencies should be considered, by introducing a LET spectrum based dose model. The RBE-LET relationship was investigated by fitting of polynomials from 1st to 5th degree to a database of 85 data points from aerobic in vitro experiments. We included both unweighted and weighted regression, the latter taking into account experimental uncertainties. Statistical testing was performed to decide whether higher degree polynomials provided better fits to the data as compared to lower degrees. The newly developed models were compared to three published LET d based models for a simulated spread out Bragg peak (SOBP) scenario. The statistical analysis of the weighted regression analysis favored a non-linear RBE-LET relationship, with the quartic polynomial found to best represent the experimental data (P = 0.010). The results of the unweighted regression analysis were on the borderline of statistical significance for non-linear functions (P = 0.053), and with the current database a linear dependency could not be rejected. For the SOBP scenario, the weighted non-linear model estimated a similar mean RBE value (1.14) compared to the three established models (1.13-1.17). The unweighted model calculated a considerably higher RBE value (1.22). The analysis indicated that non-linear models could give a better representation of the RBE-LET relationship. However, this is not decisive, as inclusion of the experimental uncertainties in the regression analysis had a significant impact on the determination and ranking of the models. As differences between the models were observed for the SOBP scenario, both non-linear LET spectrum- and linear LET d based models should be further evaluated in clinically realistic scenarios. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

A multi-criteria spatial deprivation index to support health inequality analyses.

PubMed

Cabrera-Barona, Pablo; Murphy, Thomas; Kienberger, Stefan; Blaschke, Thomas

2015-03-20

Deprivation indices are useful measures to analyze health inequalities. There are several methods to construct these indices, however, few studies have used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Criteria methods to construct a deprivation index. Therefore, this study applies Multi-Criteria Evaluation to calculate weights for the indicators that make up the deprivation index and a GIS-based fuzzy approach to create different scenarios of this index is also implemented. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to obtain the weights for the indicators of the index. The Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) method using linguistic quantifiers is applied in order to create different deprivation scenarios. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and a Moran's I analysis are employed to explore spatial relationships between the different deprivation measures and two health factors: the distance to health services and the percentage of people that have never had a live birth. This last indicator was considered as the dependent variable in the GWR. The case study is Quito City, in Ecuador. The AHP-based deprivation index show medium and high levels of deprivation (0,511 to 1,000) in specific zones of the study area, even though most of the study area has low values of deprivation. OWA results show deprivation scenarios that can be evaluated considering the different attitudes of decision makers. GWR results indicate that the deprivation index and its OWA scenarios can be considered as local estimators for health related phenomena. Moran's I calculations demonstrate that several deprivation scenarios, in combination with the 'distance to health services' factor, could be explanatory variables to predict the percentage of people that have never had a live birth. The AHP-based deprivation index and the OWA deprivation scenarios developed in this study are Multi-Criteria instruments that can support the identification of highly deprived zones and can support health inequalities analysis in combination with different health factors. The methodology described in this study can be applied in other regions of the world to develop spatial deprivation indices based on Multi-Criteria analysis.

Evaluating different scenarios for Tradable Green Certificates by game theory approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghaffari, Meysam; Hafezalkotob, Ashkan

2018-06-01

Right now employment of polices and tools to decrease the carbon emission through electricity generation from renewable resources is one of the most important problem in energy policy. Tradable Green Certificate (TGC) is an economics mechanism to support green power generation. Any country has the challenge to choose an appropriate policy and mechanism for design and implementation of TGC. The purpose of this study is to help policy makers to design and choose the best scenario of TGC by evaluating six scenarios, based on game theory approach. This study will be useful for increasing the effectiveness of TGC system in interaction with electricity market. Particularly, the competition between thermal and renewable power plants is modeled by mathematical modeling tools such as cooperative games like Nash and Stackelberg. Each game is modeled by taking into account of the two following policies. The results of the six scenarios and the sensitivity analysis of some key parameters have been evaluated by numerical studies. Finally, in order to evaluate the scenarios we calculated the level of social welfare in the all scenarios. The results of all models demonstrate that when the green electricity share (minimum requirement) increases the TGC price decreases. Moreover, in all scenarios when the minimum requirement is 100% then the maximum level of social welfare is not met. Also when the minimum requirement is less than 50%, the scenarios with the market TGC price policy have more social welfare in comparison with the scenarios with fixed TGC price policy.

An Ecologically Based Model of Alcohol-Consumption Decision Making: Evidence for the Discriminative and Predictive Role of Contextual Reward and Punishment Information*

PubMed Central

Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R.

2009-01-01

Objective: Using insights from Ecological Systems Theory and Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory, the current study assessed the utility of a series of hypothetical role-based alcohol-consumption scenarios that varied in their presentation of rewarding and punishing information. Method: The scenarios, along with measures of impulsive sensation seeking and a self-report of weekly alcohol consumption, were administered to a sample of alcohol-dependent and non-alcohol-dependent college-age individuals (N = 170). Results: The results showed scenario attendance decisions were largely unaffected by alcohol-dependence status and variations in contextual reward and punishment information. In contrast to the attendance findings, the results for the alcohol-consumption decisions showed alcohol-dependent individuals reported a greater frequency of deciding to drink, as well as indicating greater alcohol consumption in the contexts of complementary rewarding or nonpunishing information. Regression results provided evidence for the criterion-related validity of scenario outcomes in an account of diagnostic alcohol problems. Conclusions: The results are discussed in terms of the conceptual and predictive gains associated with an assessment approach to alcohol-consumption decision making that combines situational information organized and balanced through the frameworks of Ecological Systems Theory and Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory. PMID:19371496

An evaluation of the hybrid car technology for the Mexico Mega City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jazcilevich, Aron D.; Reynoso, Agustin Garcia; Grutter, Michel; Delgado, Javier; Ayala, Ulises Diego; Lastra, Manuel Suarez; Zuk, Miriam; Oropeza, Rogelio Gonzalez; Lents, Jim; Davis, Nicole

The introduction of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) technology in the private car fleet of Mexico City is evaluated in terms of private costs, energy, public health and CO 2 emission benefits. In addition to constructing plausible scenarios for urban expansion, emission, car fleet, and fuel consumption for year 2026 and comparing them with a 2004 base case, a time series is built to obtain accumulated economic benefits. Experimental techniques were used to build a vehicle library for a car simulator that included a Prius 2002, chosen as the HEV technology representative for this work. The simulator is used to estimate the emissions and fuel consumption of the car fleet scenarios. In the context of an urban scenario for year 2026, a complex air quality model obtains the concentrations of criterion pollutants corresponding to these scenarios. Using a technology penetration model, the hybridized fleet starts unfolding in year 2009 reaching to 20% in 2026. In this year, the hybridized fleet resulted in reductions of about 10% of CO 2 emissions, and yielded reductions in daytime mean concentrations of up to 7% in ozone and 3.4% in PM 2.5 compared to the 2004 base case. These reductions are concentrated in the densely populated areas of Mexico City. By building a time series of costs and benefits it is shown that, depending on fuel prices and using a 5% return rate, positive accumulated benefits (CO 2 benefits + energy benefits + public health benefits - private costs) will start generating in year 2015 reaching between 2.8 and 4.5 billion US Dlls in 2026. Another modernized private fleet consisting exclusively of Tier I and II cars did not yield appreciable results, signaling that a change in private car technology towards HEV's is needed to obtain significant accumulated benefits.

Evaluation of a hyperspectral image database for demosaicking purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larabi, Mohamed-Chaker; Süsstrunk, Sabine

2011-01-01

We present a study on the the applicability of hyperspectral images to evaluate color filter array (CFA) design and the performance of demosaicking algorithms. The aim is to simulate a typical digital still camera processing pipe-line and to compare two different scenarios: evaluate the performance of demosaicking algorithms applied to raw camera RGB values before color rendering to sRGB, and evaluate the performance of demosaicking algorithms applied on the final sRGB color rendered image. The second scenario is the most frequently used one in literature because CFA design and algorithms are usually tested on a set of existing images that are already rendered, such as the Kodak Photo CD set containing the well-known lighthouse image. We simulate the camera processing pipe-line with measured spectral sensitivity functions of a real camera. Modeling a Bayer CFA, we select three linear demosaicking techniques in order to perform the tests. The evaluation is done using CMSE, CPSNR, s-CIELAB and MSSIM metrics to compare demosaicking results. We find that the performance, and especially the difference between demosaicking algorithms, is indeed significant depending if the mosaicking/demosaicking is applied to camera raw values as opposed to already rendered sRGB images. We argue that evaluating the former gives a better indication how a CFA/demosaicking combination will work in practice, and that it is in the interest of the community to create a hyperspectral image dataset dedicated to that effect.

12 CFR Appendix C to Subpart A of... - Appendix C to Subpart A of Part 327

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... reports. Stress Considerations Ability to Withstand Stress Conditions • Internal analyses of portfolio.... • Stress scenario development and analyses. • Results of stress tests or scenario analyses that show the.... an evaluation of credit portfolio performance under varying stress scenarios. ii. an evaluation of...

12 CFR Appendix C to Subpart A of... - Appendix C to Subpart A of Part 327

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... reports. Stress Considerations Ability to Withstand Stress Conditions • Internal analyses of portfolio.... • Stress scenario development and analyses. • Results of stress tests or scenario analyses that show the.... an evaluation of credit portfolio performance under varying stress scenarios. ii. an evaluation of...

Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment.

PubMed

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

2018-02-05

As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8-61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9-58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3-45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47, and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security.

Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment

PubMed Central

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

2018-01-01

As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8–61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9–58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3–45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47 and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security. PMID:29401747

Electric Propulsion for Low Earth Orbit Constellations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oleson, Steven R.; Sankovic, John M.

1998-01-01

Hall Effect electric propulsion was evaluated for orbit insertion, satellite repositioning, orbit maintenance and de-orbit applications for a sample low earth orbit satellite constellation. Since the low masses of these satellites enable multiple spacecraft per launch, the ability to add spacecraft to a given launch was used as a figure of merit. When compared to chemical propulsion, the Hall thruster system can add additional spacecraft per launch using planned payload power levels. One satellite can be added to the assumed four satellite baseline chemical launch without additional mission times. Two or three satellites may be added by providing part of the orbit insertion with the Hall system. In these cases orbit insertion times were found to be 35 and 62 days. Depending on the electric propulsion scenario, the resulting launch vehicle savings is nearly two, three or four Delta 7920 launch vehicles out of the chemical baseline scenarios eight Delta 7920 launch vehicles.

Electric Propulsion for Low Earth Orbit Constellations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oleson, Steven R.; Sankovic, John M.

1998-01-01

Hall effect electric propulsion was evaluated for orbit insertion, satellite repositioning, orbit maintenance and de-orbit applications for a sample low earth orbit satellite constellation. Since the low masses of these satellites enable multiple spacecraft per launch, the ability to add spacecraft to a given launch was used as a figure of merit. When compared to chemical propulsion, the Hall thruster system can add additional spacecraft per launch using planned payload power levels. One satellite can be added to the assumed four satellite baseline chemical launch without additional mission times. Two or three satellites may be added by providing part of the orbit insertion with the Hall system. In these cases orbit insertion times were found to be 35 and 62 days. Depending, on the electric propulsion scenario, the resulting launch vehicle savings is nearly two, three or four Delta 7920 launch vehicles out of the chemical baseline scenario's eight Delta 7920 launch vehicles.

OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios.

PubMed

Gattuso, J-P; Magnan, A; Billé, R; Cheung, W W L; Howes, E L; Joos, F; Allemand, D; Bopp, L; Cooley, S R; Eakin, C M; Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Kelly, R P; Pörtner, H-O; Rogers, A D; Baxter, J M; Laffoley, D; Osborn, D; Rankovic, A; Rochette, J; Sumaila, U R; Treyer, S; Turley, C

2015-07-03

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird.

PubMed

Pickens, Bradley A; Marcus, Jeffrey F; Carpenter, John P; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J; Collazo, Jaime A

2017-04-15

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010-2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common <600 m from urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for the 2016 Central Italy earthquakes sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Romashkova, Leontina; Panza, Giuliano F.

2017-04-01

Predicting earthquakes and related ground shaking is widely recognized among the most challenging scientific problems, both for societal relevance and intrinsic complexity of the problem. The development of reliable forecasting tools requires their rigorous formalization and testing, first in retrospect, and then in an experimental real-time mode, which imply a careful application of statistics to data sets of limited size and different accuracy. Accordingly, the operational issues of prospective validation and use of time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios are discussed, reviewing the results in their application in Italy and surroundings. Long-term practice and results obtained for the Italian territory in about two decades of rigorous prospective testing, support the feasibility of earthquake forecasting based on the analysis of seismicity patterns at the intermediate-term middle-range scale. Italy is the only country worldwide where two independent, globally tested, algorithms are simultaneously applied, namely CN and M8S, which permit to deal with multiple sets of seismic precursors to allow for a diagnosis of the intervals of time when a strong event is likely to occur inside a given region. Based on routinely updated space-time information provided by CN and M8S forecasts, an integrated procedure has been developed that allows for the definition of time-dependent seismic hazard scenarios, through the realistic modeling of ground motion by the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA). This scenario-based methodology permits to construct, both at regional and local scale, scenarios of ground motion for the time interval when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted areas. CN and M8S predictions, as well as the related time-dependent ground motion scenarios associated with the alarmed areas, are routinely updated since 2006. The issues and results from real-time testing of the integrated NDSHA scenarios are illustrated, with special emphasis on the sequence of destructive earthquakes that struck Central Italy starting on August 2016. The results obtained so far evidence the validity of the proposed methodology in anticipating ground shaking from approaching strong earthquakes and prove that the information provided by time-dependent NDSHA can be useful in assigning priorities for timely and effective mitigation actions.

Evaluating Global Land-use Change Scenario: Carbon Emission in RCP Scenarios and its Effects on Climate Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

2011-12-01

In CMIP5 experiments, new emissions scenarios for GCMs and Earth System Models (ESMs) have been constructed as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by a community effort of Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) groups. In RCP scenarios, regional land-use scenarios have been depicted based on the socio-economic assumption of IAMs, and also downscaled spatially explicit land-use maps from the regional scenarios are prepared. In the land-use harmonization project, integrated gridded land-use transition data for the past and future time period has been developed from the reconstruction based on HYDE 3 agricultural data and FAO wood harvest data, and the future land-use scenarios from IAMs. These gridded land-use dataset are used as a forcing of some ESMs participating to the CMIP5 experiments, to assess the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use and land cover change in the climate change simulation. In this study, global net CO2 emissions from land-use change for RCP scenarios are evaluated with an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool). Also the emissions are evaluated with coupled ESM, MIROC-ESM following the LUCID-CMIP5 protocol to see the effect of land-use and land cover change on climate response. Using the model output, consistency of the land-use change CO2 emission scenarios provided by RCPs are evaluated in terms of effect of CO2 fertilization, climate change, and land-use transition itself including the effect of biomass crops production with CCS. We find that a land-use scenario with decreased agricultural land-use intensity such as RCP 6.0 shows possibility of further absorption of CO2 through the climate-carbon feedback, and cooling effect through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects.

The Economic Impact of Adaptive Responses to Future Scenarios of Socio-Economic and Ecological Change in the Tonle Sap Ecosystem, Cambodia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teh, L.; Bond, N.; KC, K. B.; Fraser, E. D. G.; Seng, R.; Sumaila, R.

2016-12-01

The livelihoods of people dependent on the Tonle Sap floodplain ecosystem in Cambodia are expected to be affected by future socio-economic, policy, ecological, and climate change. To investigate the economic impact of these changes on fishing dependent communities, we compare the net income from individuals' current livelihoods to that derived from reallocating their livelihood activities under 4 different scenarios depicting future change. Under current conditions, we find that the group of individuals who do not participate in fishing had the lowest net income. In contrast, individuals who participated in fishing only had comparatively higher average net income than those with multiple livelihoods, suggesting that there may be current gains from livelihood specialisation. When presented with scenarios of future ecological and socio-economic change, the majority of respondents chose to retain their current livelihood strategy under all future scenarios. Of those who did change their livelihood allocation, less than 10% actually experienced a gain in economic benefits. Overall, a loss in net income was expected under all future scenarios, with those engaged in single livelihoods being the most vulnerable because they were likely to experience the largest losses (7 - 29% loss vs. 1 - 17% for multi-livelihoods) across all 4 scenarios while having the least capacity to adapt. Respondents' choices generated the best economic outcome under the scenario depicting the status quo, indicating that they were capable of coping with current conditions, but were unlikely to make appropriate decisions when faced with future scenarios that they were unfamiliar with. By quantifying the consequences of low adaptive capacity in terms of income loss, this study provides an economic argument for addressing the social and economic factors that currently inhibit the capacity of Tonle Sap inhabitants to adapt to future change. It also emphasises the need for sustainable management of fish and water resources upon which inhabitants are currently heavily dependent upon.

Evaluation of Decision Rules in a Tiered Assessment of Inhalation Exposure to Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Brouwer, Derk; Boessen, Ruud; van Duuren-Stuurman, Birgit; Bard, Delphine; Moehlmann, Carsten; Bekker, Cindy; Fransman, Wouter; Klein Entink, Rinke

2016-10-01

Tiered or stepwise approaches to assess occupational exposure to nano-objects, and their agglomerates and aggregates have been proposed, which require decision rules (DRs) to move to a next tier, or terminate the assessment. In a desk study the performance of a number of DRs based on the evaluation of results from direct reading instruments was investigated by both statistical simulations and the application of the DRs to real workplace data sets. A statistical model that accounts for autocorrelation patterns in time-series, i.e. autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), was used as 'gold' standard. The simulations showed that none of the proposed DRs covered the entire range of simulated scenarios with respect to the ARIMA model parameters, however, a combined DR showed a slightly better agreement. Application of the DRs to real workplace datasets (n = 117) revealed sensitivity up to 0.72, whereas the lowest observed specificity was 0.95. The selection of the most appropriate DR is very much dependent on the consequences of the decision, i.e. ruling in or ruling out of scenarios for further evaluation. Since a basic assessment may also comprise of other type of measurements and information, an evaluation logic was proposed which embeds the DRs, but furthermore supports decision making in view of a tiered-approach exposure assessment. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Evaluation of Data-Driven Models for Predicting Solar Photovoltaics Power Output

DOE PAGES

Moslehi, Salim; Reddy, T. Agami; Katipamula, Srinivas

2017-09-10

This research was undertaken to evaluate different inverse models for predicting power output of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems under different practical scenarios. In particular, we have investigated whether PV power output prediction accuracy can be improved if module/cell temperature was measured in addition to climatic variables, and also the extent to which prediction accuracy degrades if solar irradiation is not measured on the plane of array but only on a horizontal surface. We have also investigated the significance of different independent or regressor variables, such as wind velocity and incident angle modifier in predicting PV power output and cell temperature.more » The inverse regression model forms have been evaluated both in terms of their goodness-of-fit, and their accuracy and robustness in terms of their predictive performance. Given the accuracy of the measurements, expected CV-RMSE of hourly power output prediction over the year varies between 3.2% and 8.6% when only climatic data are used. Depending on what type of measured climatic and PV performance data is available, different scenarios have been identified and the corresponding appropriate modeling pathways have been proposed. The corresponding models are to be implemented on a controller platform for optimum operational planning of microgrids and integrated energy systems.« less

A systematic intercomparison of regional flood frequency analysis models in a simulation framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganora, Daniele; Laio, Francesco; Claps, Pierluigi

2015-04-01

Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve (or other discharge-related variables), based on the fundamental concept of substituting temporal information at a site (no data or short time series) by exploiting observations at other sites (spatial information). Different RFA paradigms exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest. Despite the wide use of such methodology, a systematic comparison between these paradigms has not been performed. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison: we thus synthetically generate data through Monte Carlo simulations for a number of (virtual) stations, following a GEV parent distribution; different scenarios can be created to represent different spatial heterogeneity patterns by manipulating the parameters of the parent distribution at each station (e.g. with a linear variation in space of the shape parameter of the GEV). A special case is the homogeneous scenario where each station record is sampled from the same parent distribution. For each scenario and each simulation, different regional models are applied to evaluate the 200-year growth factor at each station. Results are than compared to the exact growth factor of each station, which is known in our virtual world. Considered regional approaches include: (i) a single growth curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model based on cluster analysis which search for an adequate number of homogeneous subregions; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially-smooth estimation procedure based on linear regressions.. A further benchmark model is the at-site estimate based on the analysis of the local record. A comprehensive analysis of the results of the simulations shows that, if the scenario is homogeneous (no spatial variability), all the regional approaches have comparable performances. Moreover, as expected, regional estimates are much more reliable than the at-site estimates. If the scenario is heterogeneous, the performances of the regional models depend on the pattern of heterogeneity; in general, however, the spatially-smooth regional approach performs better than the others, and its performances improve for increasing record lengths. For heterogeneous scenarios, the at-site estimates appear to be comparably more efficient than in the homogeneous case, and in general less biased than the regional estimates.

General Relativistic Precession in Small Solar System Bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekhar, Aswin; Werner, Stephanie; Hoffmann, Volker; Asher, David; Vaubaillon, Jeremie; Hajdukova, Maria; Li, Gongjie

2016-10-01

Introduction: One of the greatest successes of the Einstein's General Theory of Relativity (GR) was the correct prediction of the precession of perihelion of Mercury. The closed form expression to compute this precession tells us that substantial GR precession would occur only if the bodies have a combination of both moderately small perihelion distance and semi-major axis. Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) is a quantity which helps us to understand the closest proximity of two orbits in space. Hence evaluating MOID is crucial to understand close encounters and collision scenarios better. In this work, we look at the possible scenarios where a small GR precession in argument of pericentre (ω) can create substantial changes in MOID for small bodies ranging from meteoroids to comets and asteroids.Analytical Approach and Numerical Integrations: Previous works have looked into neat analytical techniques to understand different collision scenarios and we use those standard expressions to compute MOID analytically. We find the nature of this mathematical function is such that a relatively small GR precession can lead to drastic changes in MOID values depending on the initial value of ω. Numerical integrations were done with package MERCURY incorporating the GR code to test the same effects. Numerical approach showed the same interesting relationship (as shown by analytical theory) between values of ω and the peaks/dips in MOID values. Previous works have shown that GR precession suppresses Kozai oscillations and this aspect was verified using our integrations. There is an overall agreement between both analytical and numerical methods.Summary and Discussion: We find that GR precession could play an important role in the calculations pertaining to MOID and close encounter scenarios in the case of certain small solar system bodies (depending on their initial orbital elements). Previous works have looked into impact probabilities and collision scenarios on planets from different small body populations. This work aims to find certain sub-sets of orbits where GR could play an interesting role. Certain parallels are drawn between the cases of asteroids, comets and small perihelion distance meteoroid streams.

A multivariate copula-based framework for dealing with hazard scenarios and failure probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvadori, G.; Durante, F.; De Michele, C.; Bernardi, M.; Petrella, L.

2016-05-01

This paper is of methodological nature, and deals with the foundations of Risk Assessment. Several international guidelines have recently recommended to select appropriate/relevant Hazard Scenarios in order to tame the consequences of (extreme) natural phenomena. In particular, the scenarios should be multivariate, i.e., they should take into account the fact that several variables, generally not independent, may be of interest. In this work, it is shown how a Hazard Scenario can be identified in terms of (i) a specific geometry and (ii) a suitable probability level. Several scenarios, as well as a Structural approach, are presented, and due comparisons are carried out. In addition, it is shown how the Hazard Scenario approach illustrated here is well suited to cope with the notion of Failure Probability, a tool traditionally used for design and risk assessment in engineering practice. All the results outlined throughout the work are based on the Copula Theory, which turns out to be a fundamental theoretical apparatus for doing multivariate risk assessment: formulas for the calculation of the probability of Hazard Scenarios in the general multidimensional case (d≥2) are derived, and worthy analytical relationships among the probabilities of occurrence of Hazard Scenarios are presented. In addition, the Extreme Value and Archimedean special cases are dealt with, relationships between dependence ordering and scenario levels are studied, and a counter-example concerning Tail Dependence is shown. Suitable indications for the practical application of the techniques outlined in the work are given, and two case studies illustrate the procedures discussed in the paper.

Analysis of managed aquifer recharge for retiming streamflow in an alluvial river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronayne, Michael J.; Roudebush, Jason A.; Stednick, John D.

2017-01-01

Maintenance of low flows during dry periods is critical for supporting ecosystem function in many rivers. Managed aquifer recharge is one method that can be used to augment low flows in rivers that are hydraulically connected to an alluvial groundwater system. In this study, we performed numerical modeling to evaluate a managed recharge operation designed to retime streamflow in the South Platte River, northeastern Colorado (USA). Modeling involved the simulation of spatially and temporally variable groundwater-surface water exchange, as well as streamflow routing in the river. Periodic solutions that incorporate seasonality were developed for two scenarios, a natural base case scenario and an active management scenario that included groundwater pumping and managed recharge. A framework was developed to compare the scenarios by analyzing changes in head-dependent inflows and outflows to/from the aquifer, which was used to interpret the simulated impacts on streamflow. The results clearly illustrate a retiming of streamflow. Groundwater pumping near the river during winter months causes a reduction in streamflow during those months. Delivery of the pumped water to recharge ponds, located further from the river, has the intended effect of augmenting streamflow during low-flow summer months. Higher streamflow is not limited to the target time period, however, which highlights an inefficiency of flow augmentation projects that rely on water retention in the subsurface.

Free Flight and Self-Separation from the Flight Deck Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lozito, Sandra; McGann, Alison; Mackintosh, Margaret-Anne; Cashion, Patricia; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

The concept of "free flight", while still being developed, is intended to emphasize more, flexibility for operators in the National Airspace System (NAS) by providing more separation responsibility to pilots, New technologies, procedures, and concepts have been suggested by the aviation community to enable this task; however, much work needs to be accomplished to help define and evaluate the concept feasibility. The purpose of this simulation was to begin examining some of the communication and procedural issues associated with self-separation in the enroute environment. A simulation demonstration was conducted in the Boeing 747-400 simulator at NASA Ames Research Center. Commercial pilots (from a U.S. domestic carrier) current on the B747-400 aircraft were the participants. Ten flight crews (10 captains, 10 first officers) flew in the Denver enroute airspace environment. A new alerting logic designed to allow for airborne self-separation was created for this demonstration. This logic assumes automatic dependent surveillance broadcast (ADS-B) capability and represented aircraft up to 120 nautical miles on the display. The new flight deck display features were designed and incorporated on the existing navigational display in the simulator to allow for increased traffic and maneuvering information to the flight crew. New tools were also provided to allow the crews to assess conflicts and potential maneuvers before implementing them. Each of the flight crews flew eight different scenarios in the Denver enroute airspace. The scenarios included eight to ten other aircraft, and each scenario was created with the intent of having one of the other aircraft become an operational conflict for our simulator aircraft. Different types of conflict geometries were represented across the eight scenarios. Also, some scenarios allowed for more time to detect a potential clearance, while others allowed for less time for'detection. Additionally, the crews were asked to a ply the Visual Flight Rules (VFR) right of way rules when determining who should maneuver in a conflict situation; therefore, the scenarios were designed to test different applications of those recommendations, Data analyses include an evaluation of crew procedures and communication. The application of the VFR right-of-way rules are being explored. Timing variables are being examined to determine potential efficiency differences between scenarios and conflict types. Proximity of aircraft will be assessed as one indication of the operational safety. The intent of these evaluations is to help provide definitions and guidelines of negotiation procedures in a self-separation environment assuming automated data link technology (ADS-B). Also, definitions of likely flight crew maneuvers and application to current VFR right-of-way rules may be obtained, along with guidelines for negotiation procedures between flight crews.

Evaluation of methodology for the analysis of 'time-to-event' data in pharmacogenomic genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Syed, Hamzah; Jorgensen, Andrea L; Morris, Andrew P

2016-06-01

To evaluate the power to detect associations between SNPs and time-to-event outcomes across a range of pharmacogenomic study designs while comparing alternative regression approaches. Simulations were conducted to compare Cox proportional hazards modeling accounting for censoring and logistic regression modeling of a dichotomized outcome at the end of the study. The Cox proportional hazards model was demonstrated to be more powerful than the logistic regression analysis. The difference in power between the approaches was highly dependent on the rate of censoring. Initial evaluation of single-nucleotide polymorphism association signals using computationally efficient software with dichotomized outcomes provides an effective screening tool for some design scenarios, and thus has important implications for the development of analytical protocols in pharmacogenomic studies.

Reliability of regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahrens, W.; Block, A.; Böhm, U.; Hauffe, D.; Keuler, K.; Kücken, M.; Nocke, Th.

2003-04-01

Quantification of uncertainty becomes more and more a key issue for assessing the trustability of future climate scenarios. In addition to the mean conditions, climate impact modelers focus in particular on extremes. Before generating such scenarios using e.g. dynamic regional climate models, a careful validation of present-day simulations should be performed to determine the range of errors for the quantities of interest under recent conditions as a raw estimate of their uncertainty in the future. Often, multiple aspects shall be covered together, and the required simulation accuracy depends on the user's demand. In our approach, a massive parallel regional climate model shall be used on the one hand to generate "long-term" high-resolution climate scenarios for several decades, and on the other hand to provide very high-resolution ensemble simulations of future dry spells or heavy rainfall events. To diagnosis the model's performance for present-day simulations, we have recently developed and tested a first version of a validation and visualization chain for this model. It is, however, applicable in a much more general sense and could be used as a common test bed for any regional climate model aiming at this type of simulations. Depending on the user's interest, integrated quality measures can be derived for near-surface parameters using multivariate techniques and multidimensional distance measures in a first step. At this point, advanced visualization techniques have been developed and included to allow for visual data mining and to qualitatively identify dominating aspects and regularities. Univariate techniques that are especially designed to assess climatic aspects in terms of statistical properties can then be used to quantitatively diagnose the error contributions of the individual used parameters. Finally, a comprehensive in-depth diagnosis tool allows to investigate, why the model produces the obtained near-surface results to answer the question if the model performs well from the modeler's point of view. Examples will be presented for results obtained using this approach for assessing the risk of potential total agricultural yield loss under drought conditions in Northeast Brazil and for evaluating simulation results for a 10-year period for Europe. To support multi-run simulations and result evaluation, the model will be embedded into an already existing simulation environment that provides further postprocessing tools for sensitivity studies, behavioral analysis and Monte-Carlo simulations, but also for ensemble scenario analysis in one of the next steps.

Combining urbanization and hydrodynamics data to evaluate sea level rise impacts on coastal water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, C. R.; Martin, J. B.

2016-02-01

Assessments of the potential for salt water intrusion due to sea level rise require consideration of both coastal hydrodynamic and human activity thresholds. In siliciclastic systems, sea level rise may cause salt intrusion to coastal aquifers at annual or decadal scales, whereas in karst systems salt intrudes at the tidal scalse. In both cases, human activity impacts the freshwater portion of the system by altering the water demand on the aquifer. We combine physicochemical and human activity data to evaluate impact of sea level rise on salt intrusion to siliclastic (Indian River Lagoon, Fl, USA) and karst (Puerto Morelos, Yucatan, Mexico) systems under different sea level rise rate scenarios. Two hydrodynamic modeling scenarios are considered; flux controlled and head controlled. Under a flux controlled system hydraulic head gradients remain constant during sea level rise while under a head controlled system hydraulic graidents diminish, allowing saltwater intrusion. Our model contains three key terms; aquifer recharge, groundwater discharge and hydraulic conductivity. Groundwater discharge and hydraulic conductivity were calculated based on high frequency (karst system) and decadal (siliciclastic system) field measurements. Aquifer recharge is defined as precipitation less evapotranspiration and water demand was evaluated based on urban planning data that provided the regional water demand. Water demand includes agricultural area, toursim, traffic patterns, garbage collection and total population. Water demand was initially estimated using a partial leaset squares regression based on these variables. Our model indicates that water demand depends most on agricultural area, which has changed significantly over the last 30 years. In both systems, additional water demand creates a head controlled scenario, thus increaseing the protential fo salt intrusion with projected sea level rise.

Water and Climate Impacts on Power System Operations: The Importance of Cooling Systems and Demand Response Measures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Macknick, Jordan; Zhou, Ella; O'Connell, Matthew

The U.S. electricity sector is highly dependent upon water resources; changes in water temperatures and water availability can affect operational costs and the reliability of power systems. Despite the importance of water for power system operations, the effects of changes in water characteristics on multiple generators in a system are generally not modeled. Moreover, demand response measures, which can change the magnitude and timing of loads and can have beneficial impacts on power system operations, have not yet been evaluated in the context of water-related power vulnerabilities. This effort provides a first comprehensive vulnerability and cost analysis of water-related impactsmore » on a modeled power system and the potential for demand response measures to address vulnerability and cost concerns. This study uniquely combines outputs and inputs of a water and power plant system model, production cost, model, and relative capacity value model to look at variations in cooling systems, policy-related thermal curtailments, and demand response measures to characterize costs and vulnerability for a test system. Twenty-five scenarios over the course of one year are considered: a baseline scenario as well as a suite of scenarios to evaluate six cooling system combinations, the inclusion or exclusion of policy-related thermal curtailments, and the inclusion or exclusion of demand response measures. A water and power plant system model is utilized to identify changes in power plant efficiencies resulting from ambient conditions, a production cost model operating at an hourly scale is used to calculate generation technology dispatch and costs, and a relative capacity value model is used to evaluate expected loss of carrying capacity for the test system.« less

Ecological scenarios analyzed and evaluated by a shallow lake model.

PubMed

Kardaetz, Sascha; Strube, Torsten; Brüggemann, Rainer; Nützmann, Gunnar

2008-07-01

We applied the complex ecosystem model EMMO, which was adopted to the shallow lake Müggelsee (Germany), in order to evaluate a large set of ecological scenarios. By means of EMMO, 33 scenarios and 17 indicators were defined to characterize their effects on the lake ecosystem. The indicators were based on model outputs of EMMO and can be separated into biological indicators, such as chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria, and hydro-chemical indicators, such as phosphorus. The question to be solved was, what is the ranking of the scenarios based on their characterization by these 17 indicators? And how can we handle high quantities of complex data within evaluation procedures? The scenario evaluation was performed by partial order theory which, however, did not provide a clear result. By subsequently applying the hierarchical cluster analysis (complete linkage) it was possible to reduce the data matrix to indicator and scenario representatives. Even though this step implies losses of information, it simplifies the application of partial order theory and the post processing by METEOR. METEOR is derived from partial order theory and allows the stepwise aggregation of indicators, which subsequently leads to a distinct and clear decision. In the final evaluation result the best scenario was the one which defines a minimum nutrient input and no phosphorus release from the sediment while the worst scenario is characterized by a maximum nutrient input and extensive phosphorus release from the sediment. The reasonable and comprehensive results show that the combination of partial order, cluster analysis and METEOR can handle big amounts of data in a very clear and transparent way, and therefore is ideal in the context of complex ecosystem models, like that we applied.

Analysis of consistency of global net land-use change carbon emission scenario using offline vegetation model and earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

2010-12-01

For CMIP5 experiments, emissions scenarios data sets for climate models are prepared as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). IAMs also have depicted regional land-use scenarios based on the socioeconomic assumption of the future scenarios of RCPs. In the land-use harmonization project, gridded land-use transition data has been constructed from the regional IAMs future land-use scenarios which smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land-use based on HYDE 3 data and FAO wood harvest data. In this study, using the gridded transition land-use scenario data, global net CO2 emission from land-use change for each RCPs scenarios is evaluated with a offline version of terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool), utilizing a protocol to estimate carbon emission from deforested biomass considering delayed decomposition of product pools, and regrowth absorption from the secondary lands with abandoned agricultural lands. From the model output, effect of CO2 fertilization and land-use scenario itself on the emission is assessed to see the consistency of the scenarios. In addition, to see the effect of climate change and the climate-carbon feedback on terrestrial ecosystems, net land-use change CO2 emission is also evaluated with an earth system model, MIROC-ESM incorporating a DGVM with land-use change component. In the simulations with earth system model, RCP 6.0 scenario has been evaluated by model runs with and without land-use change forcing.

An assessment of the potential health impacts of food reformulation.

PubMed

Leroy, P; Réquillart, V; Soler, L-G; Enderli, G

2016-06-01

Policies focused on food quality are intended to facilitate healthy choices by consumers, even those who are not fully informed about the links between food consumption and health. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the potential impact of such a food reformulation scenario on health outcomes. We first created reformulation scenarios adapted to the French characteristics of foods. After computing the changes in the nutrient intakes of representative consumers, we determined the health effects of these changes. To do so, we used the DIETRON health assessment model, which calculates the number of deaths avoided by changes in food and nutrient intakes. Depending on the reformulation scenario, the total impact of reformulation varies between 2408 and 3597 avoided deaths per year, which amounts to a 3.7-5.5% reduction in mortality linked to diseases considered in the DIETRON model. The impacts are much higher for men than for women and much higher for low-income categories than for high-income categories. These differences result from the differences in consumption patterns and initial disease prevalence among the various income categories. Even without any changes in consumers' behaviors, realistic food reformulation may have significant health outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of home visits in the outpatient treatment of patients with alcohol dependence.

PubMed

Moraes, Edilaine; Campos, Geraldo M; Figlie, Neliana B; Laranjeira, Ronaldo; Ferraz, Marcos B

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of conventional outpatient treatment for alcoholic patients (CT) with this same conventional treatment plus home visits (HV), a new proposal for intervention within the Brazilian outpatient treatment system. A cost-effectiveness evaluation alongside a 12-week randomized clinical trial was performed. We identified the resources utilized by each intervention, as well as the cost according to National Health System (SUS), Brazilian Medical Association (AMB) tables of fees, and others based on 2005 data. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated as the main outcome measure - abstinent cases at the end of treatment. There were 51.8% abstinent cases for HV and 43.1% for CT, a clinically relevant finding. Other outcome measures, such as quality of life, also showed significant improvements that favored HV. The baseline scenario presented an ICER of USD 1,852. Sensitivity analysis showed an ICER of USD 689 (scenario favoring HV) and USD 2,334 (scenario favoring CT). The HV treatment was found to be cost-effective according to the WHO Commission on Macroeconomics and Health. 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Reported Influence of Evaluation Data on Decision Makers' Actions: An Empirical Examination

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christie, Christina A.

2007-01-01

Using a set of scenarios derived from actual evaluation studies, this simulation study examines the reported influence of evaluation information on decision makers' potential actions. Each scenario described a context where one of three types of evaluation information (large-scale study data, case study data, or anecdotal accounts) is presented…

Assessment of the effects of release variables on the consequences of LNG spillage onto water using FERC models.

PubMed

Qiao, Yuanhua; West, Harry H; Mannan, M Sam; Johnson, David W; Cornwell, John B

2006-03-17

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) release, spread, evaporation, and dispersion processes are illustrated using the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission models in this paper. The spillage consequences are dependent upon the tank conditions, release scenarios, and the environmental conditions. The effects of the contributing variables, including the tank configuration, breach hole size, ullage pressure, wind speed and stability class, and surface roughness, on the consequence of LNG spillage onto water are evaluated using the models. The sensitivities of the consequences to those variables are discussed.

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, M.

This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

A multinational randomised study comparing didactic lectures with case scenario in a severe sepsis medical simulation course.

PubMed

Li, Chih-Huang; Kuan, Win-Sen; Mahadevan, Malcolm; Daniel-Underwood, Lynda; Chiu, Te-Fa; Nguyen, H Bryant

2012-07-01

Medical simulation has been used to teach critical illness in a variety of settings. This study examined the effect of didactic lectures compared with simulated case scenario in a medical simulation course on the early management of severe sepsis. A prospective multicentre randomised study was performed enrolling resident physicians in emergency medicine from four hospitals in Asia. Participants were randomly assigned to a course that included didactic lectures followed by a skills workshop and simulated case scenario (lecture-first) or to a course that included a skills workshop and simulated case scenario followed by didactic lectures (simulation-first). A pre-test was given to the participants at the beginning of the course, post-test 1 was given after the didactic lectures or simulated case scenario depending on the study group assignment, then a final post-test 2 was given at the end of the course. Performance on the simulated case scenario was evaluated with a performance task checklist. 98 participants were enrolled in the study. Post-test 2 scores were significantly higher than pre-test scores in all participants (80.8 ± 12.0% vs 65.4 ± 12.2%, p<0.01). There was no difference in pre-test scores between the two study groups. The lecture-first group had significantly higher post-test 1 scores than the simulation-first group (78.8 ± 10.6% vs 71.6 ± 12.6%, p<0.01). There was no difference in post-test 2 scores between the two groups. The simulated case scenario task performance completion was 90.8% (95% CI 86.6% to 95.0%) in the lecture-first group compared with 83.8% (95% CI 79.5% to 88.1%) in the simulation-first group (p=0.02). A medical simulation course can improve resident physician knowledge in the early management of severe sepsis. Such a course should include a comprehensive curriculum that includes didactic lectures followed by simulation experience.

Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models

PubMed Central

Goberville, Eric; Beaugrand, Grégory; Hautekèete, Nina-Coralie; Piquot, Yves; Luczak, Christophe

2015-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM-based scenarios to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi-GCM and multi-emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between-GCM variability was greater than the between-RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi-GCM and multi-RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between-GCM variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties. PMID:25798227

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

Estimation of landslides activities evolution due to land-use and climate change in a Pyrenean valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandromme, Rosalie; Bernardie, Séverine; Houet, Thomas; Grémont, Marine; Grandjean, Gilles; Thiery, Yannick

2016-04-01

Global changes would have impacts worldwide, but their effects should be even more exacerbated in areas particularly vulnerable. Mountainous areas are among these vulnerable territories. Ecological systems are often at a fragile equilibrium, socio-economical activities are often climate-dependent and climate-driven natural hazards can be a major threat for human activities. In order to estimate the capacity of such mountainous valleys to face global changes (climate, but also climate- and human- induced land-use changes), it is necessary to be able to evaluate the evolution of the different threats. The present work shows a method to evaluate the influences of the evolution of both vegetation cover and climate on landslides activities over a whole valley until 2100, to propose adequate solutions for current and future forestry management. Firstly, the assessment of future land use is addressed through the construction of four prospective socio-economic scenarios up to 2050 and 2100, which are then spatially validated and modeled with LUCC models. Secondly, the climate change inputs of the project correspond to 2 scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases. The used simulations available on the portal DRIAS (http://www.drias-climat.fr) were performed with the GHG emissions scenarios (RCP: Representative concentration pathways, according to the standards defined by the GIEC) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The impact of land use and climate change is then addressed through the use of these scenarios into hazards computations. For that we use a large-scale slope stability assessment tool ALICE which combines a mechanical stability model (using finite slope analysis), a vegetation module which interfere with the first model, to take into account the effects of vegetation on the mechanical soil properties (cohesion and over-load), and an hydrogeological model. All these elements are interfaced within a GIS-based solution. In that way, future changes in temperature, precipitation and vegetation cover are analyzed, permitting to address the direct and indirect impacts of global change on mountain societies. The whole chain is applied to a 100-km² Pyrenean Valley, for the ANR Project SAMCO (Society Adaptation for coping with Mountain risks in a global change COntext), as a first step in the chain for risk assessment for different climate and economical development scenarios, to evaluate the resilience of mountainous areas.

Verification methodology for fault-tolerant, fail-safe computers applied to maglev control computer systems. Final report, July 1991-May 1993

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lala, J.H.; Nagle, G.A.; Harper, R.E.

1993-05-01

The Maglev control computer system should be designed to verifiably possess high reliability and safety as well as high availability to make Maglev a dependable and attractive transportation alternative to the public. A Maglev control computer system has been designed using a design-for-validation methodology developed earlier under NASA and SDIO sponsorship for real-time aerospace applications. The present study starts by defining the maglev mission scenario and ends with the definition of a maglev control computer architecture. Key intermediate steps included definitions of functional and dependability requirements, synthesis of two candidate architectures, development of qualitative and quantitative evaluation criteria, and analyticalmore » modeling of the dependability characteristics of the two architectures. Finally, the applicability of the design-for-validation methodology was also illustrated by applying it to the German Transrapid TR07 maglev control system.« less

Capture-Recapture Estimators in Epidemiology with Applications to Pertussis and Pneumococcal Invasive Disease Surveillance

PubMed Central

Braeye, Toon; Verheagen, Jan; Mignon, Annick; Flipse, Wim; Pierard, Denis; Huygen, Kris; Schirvel, Carole; Hens, Niel

2016-01-01

Introduction Surveillance networks are often not exhaustive nor completely complementary. In such situations, capture-recapture methods can be used for incidence estimation. The choice of estimator and their robustness with respect to the homogeneity and independence assumptions are however not well documented. Methods We investigated the performance of five different capture-recapture estimators in a simulation study. Eight different scenarios were used to detect and combine case-information. The scenarios increasingly violated assumptions of independence of samples and homogeneity of detection probabilities. Belgian datasets on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pertussis provided motivating examples. Results No estimator was unbiased in all scenarios. Performance of the parametric estimators depended on how much of the dependency and heterogeneity were correctly modelled. Model building was limited by parameter estimability, availability of additional information (e.g. covariates) and the possibilities inherent to the method. In the most complex scenario, methods that allowed for detection probabilities conditional on previous detections estimated the total population size within a 20–30% error-range. Parametric estimators remained stable if individual data sources lost up to 50% of their data. The investigated non-parametric methods were more susceptible to data loss and their performance was linked to the dependence between samples; overestimating in scenarios with little dependence, underestimating in others. Issues with parameter estimability made it impossible to model all suggested relations between samples for the IPD and pertussis datasets. For IPD, the estimates for the Belgian incidence for cases aged 50 years and older ranged from 44 to58/100,000 in 2010. The estimates for pertussis (all ages, Belgium, 2014) ranged from 24.2 to30.8/100,000. Conclusion We encourage the use of capture-recapture methods, but epidemiologists should preferably include datasets for which the underlying dependency structure is not too complex, a priori investigate this structure, compensate for it within the model and interpret the results with the remaining unmodelled heterogeneity in mind. PMID:27529167

Power dissipation in HTS coated conductor coils under the simultaneous action of AC and DC currents and fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Boyang; Li, Chao; Geng, Jianzhao; Zhang, Xiuchang; Gawith, James; Ma, Jun; Liu, Yingzhen; Grilli, Francesco; Coombs, T. A.

2018-07-01

This paper presents a comprehensive alternating current (AC) loss study of a circular high temperature superconductor (HTS) coated conductor coil. The AC losses from a circular double pancake coil were measured using the electrical method. A 2D axisymmetric H -formulation model using the FEM package in COMSOL Multiphysics has been established to match the circular geometry of the coil used in the experiment. Three scenarios have been analysed: Scenario 1 with AC transport current and DC magnetic field (experiment and simulation); Scenario 2 with DC transport current and AC magnetic field (simulation); and Scenario 3 with AC transport current and AC magnetic field (simulation and experimental data support). The angular dependence analysis on the coil under a magnetic field with different orientation angle θ has been carried out for all three scenarios. For Scenario 3, the effect of the relative phase difference Δφ between the AC current and the AC field on the total AC loss of the coil has been investigated. In summary, a current/field/angle/phase dependent AC loss ( I , B , θ, Δφ) study of a circular HTS coil has been carried out. The obtained results provide useful indications for the future design and research of HTS AC systems.

Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity survey pre-modeling tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terry, Neil; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Robinson, Judith L.; Slater, Lee D.; Halford, Keith J.; Binley, Andrew; Lane, John W.; Werkema, Dale D.

2017-01-01

Geophysical tools have much to offer users in environmental, water resource, and geotechnical fields; however, techniques such as electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) are often oversold and/or overinterpreted due to a lack of understanding of the limitations of the techniques, such as the appropriate depth intervals or resolution of the methods. The relationship between ERI data and resistivity is nonlinear; therefore, these limitations depend on site conditions and survey design and are best assessed through forward and inverse modeling exercises prior to field investigations. In this approach, proposed field surveys are first numerically simulated given the expected electrical properties of the site, and the resulting hypothetical data are then analyzed using inverse models. Performing ERI forward/inverse modeling, however, requires substantial expertise and can take many hours to implement. We present a new spreadsheet-based tool, the Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity (SEER), which features a graphical user interface that allows users to manipulate a resistivity model and instantly view how that model would likely be interpreted by an ERI survey. The SEER tool is intended for use by those who wish to determine the value of including ERI to achieve project goals, and is designed to have broad utility in industry, teaching, and research.

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Moran, Edward H.; Dey, Rima; Mader, Helmut; Kraml, Julia

2012-01-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moslehi, Salim; Reddy, T. Agami; Katipamula, Srinivas

This research was undertaken to evaluate different inverse models for predicting power output of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems under different practical scenarios. In particular, we have investigated whether PV power output prediction accuracy can be improved if module/cell temperature was measured in addition to climatic variables, and also the extent to which prediction accuracy degrades if solar irradiation is not measured on the plane of array but only on a horizontal surface. We have also investigated the significance of different independent or regressor variables, such as wind velocity and incident angle modifier in predicting PV power output and cell temperature.more » The inverse regression model forms have been evaluated both in terms of their goodness-of-fit, and their accuracy and robustness in terms of their predictive performance. Given the accuracy of the measurements, expected CV-RMSE of hourly power output prediction over the year varies between 3.2% and 8.6% when only climatic data are used. Depending on what type of measured climatic and PV performance data is available, different scenarios have been identified and the corresponding appropriate modeling pathways have been proposed. The corresponding models are to be implemented on a controller platform for optimum operational planning of microgrids and integrated energy systems.« less

Dermal uptake of petroleum substances.

PubMed

Jakasa, Ivone; Kezic, Sanja; Boogaard, Peter J

2015-06-01

Petroleum products are complex substances comprising varying amounts of linear and branched alkanes, alkenes, cycloalkanes, and aromatics which may penetrate the skin at different rates. For proper interpretation of toxic hazard data, understanding their percutaneous absorption is of paramount importance. The extent and significance of dermal absorption of eight petroleum substances, representing different classes of hydrocarbons, was evaluated. Literature data on the steady-state flux and permeability coefficient of these substances were evaluated and compared to those predicted by mathematical models. Reported results spanned over 5-6 orders of magnitude and were largely dependent on experimental conditions in particular on the type of the vehicle used. In general, aromatic hydrocarbons showed higher dermal absorption than more lipophilic aliphatics with similar molecular weight. The results showed high variation and were largely influenced by experimental conditions emphasizing the need of performing the experiments under "in use" scenario. The predictive models overestimated experimental absorption. The overall conclusion is that, based on the observed percutaneous penetration data, dermal exposure to petroleum hydrocarbons, even of aromatics with highest dermal absorption is limited and highly unlikely to be associated with health risks under real use scenarios. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrodynamic evaluation of long term impacts of climate change and coastal effluents in the Arabian Gulf.

PubMed

Elhakeem, Abubaker; Elshorbagy, Walid

2015-12-30

A comprehensive basin wide hydrodynamic evaluation has been carried out to assess the long term impacts of climate change and coastal effluents on the salinity and seawater temperature of the Arabian Gulf (AG) using Delft3D-Flow model. The long term impacts of climate change scenarios A2 and B1 of the IPCC-AR4 on the AG hydrodynamics were evaluated. Using the current capacity and production rates of coastal desalination, power, and refinery plants, two projection scenarios until the year 2080 with 30 year intervals were developed namely the realistic and the optimistic discharge scenarios. Simulations of the individual climate change scenarios ascertained overall increase of the AG salinity and temperature and decrease of precipitation. The changes varied spatially with different scenarios as per the depth, proximity to exchange with ocean water, flushing, vertical mixing, and flow restriction. The individual tested scenarios of coastal projected discharges showed significant effects but within 10-20 km from the outfalls. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

PubMed

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-20

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-01-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment

PubMed Central

Huynen, Maud M. T. E.; Martens, Pim

2015-01-01

Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981–2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature–mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI’14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%–7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%–2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050—accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend—show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments. PMID:26512680

Spherical collapse of dark matter haloes in tidal gravitational fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reischke, Robert; Pace, Francesco; Meyer, Sven; Schäfer, Björn Malte

2016-11-01

We study the spherical collapse model in the presence of external gravitational tidal shear fields for different dark energy scenarios and investigate the impact on the mass function and cluster number counts. While previous studies of the influence of shear and rotation on δc have been performed with heuristically motivated models, we try to avoid this model dependence and sample the external tidal shear values directly from the statistics of the underlying linearly evolved density field based on first-order Lagrangian perturbation theory. Within this self-consistent approach, in the sense that we restrict our treatment to scales where linear theory is still applicable, only fluctuations larger than the scale of the considered objects are included into the sampling process which naturally introduces a mass dependence of δc. We find that shear effects are predominant for smaller objects and at lower redshifts, I. e. the effect on δc is at or below the percent level for the ΛCDM model. For dark energy models we also find small but noticeable differences, similar to ΛCDM. The virial overdensity ΔV is nearly unaffected by the external shear. The now mass dependent δc is used to evaluate the mass function for different dark energy scenarios and afterwards to predict cluster number counts, which indicate that ignoring the shear contribution can lead to biases of the order of 1σ in the estimation of cosmological parameters like Ωm, σ8 or w.

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rashford, Benjamin S.; Adams, Richard M.; Wu, Jun; Voldseth, Richard A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Werner, Brett; Johnson, W. Carter

2016-01-01

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.

Development and Evaluation of an Instrument to Measure Reasoning About Managing Asthma in Older School-Age Children and Adolescents

PubMed Central

Kintner, Eileen; Cook, Gwendolyn; Hull, Lakisha; Meeder, Linda

2018-01-01

Background and Purpose This article describes development and evaluation of a 4-scenario instrument designed to measure reasoning abilities for managing asthma symptoms. Methods Existing literature informed creation of a reasoning template and the reasoning scenarios. Think-aloud interviews appraised scenario functionality. Experts assessed content validity. Data from 2 groups of students with asthma aged 9–15 years (N = 132 and 307) were used to evaluate psychometric properties. Results The scenarios were deemed functional, content was relevant, and readability was age/grade appropriate. Cronbach’s alpha was 0.79. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses indicated a single component solution and revealed a good fit. Concurrent validity was established using correlations with asthma knowledge. Conclusion The instrument could be used to assess reasoning about symptom management and to evaluate educational interventions. PMID:24620511

Time-Dependent Cryospheric Longwave Surface Emissivity Feedback in the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Chaincy; Feldman, Daniel R.; Huang, Xianglei; Flanner, Mark; Yang, Ping; Chen, Xiuhong

2018-01-01

Frozen and unfrozen surfaces exhibit different longwave surface emissivities with different spectral characteristics, and outgoing longwave radiation and cooling rates are reduced for unfrozen scenes relative to frozen ones. Here physically realistic modeling of spectrally resolved surface emissivity throughout the coupled model components of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is advanced, and implications for model high-latitude biases and feedbacks are evaluated. It is shown that despite a surface emissivity feedback amplitude that is, at most, a few percent of the surface albedo feedback amplitude, the inclusion of realistic, harmonized longwave, spectrally resolved emissivity information in CESM1.2.2 reduces wintertime Arctic surface temperature biases from -7.2 ± 0.9 K to -1.1 ± 1.2 K, relative to observations. The bias reduction is most pronounced in the Arctic Ocean, a region for which Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) models exhibit the largest mean wintertime cold bias, suggesting that persistent polar temperature biases can be lessened by including this physically based process across model components. The ice emissivity feedback of CESM1.2.2 is evaluated under a warming scenario with a kernel-based approach, and it is found that emissivity radiative kernels exhibit water vapor and cloud cover dependence, thereby varying spatially and decreasing in magnitude over the course of the scenario from secular changes in atmospheric thermodynamics and cloud patterns. Accounting for the temporally varying radiative responses can yield diagnosed feedbacks that differ in sign from those obtained from conventional climatological feedback analysis methods.

A novel hybrid scattering order-dependent variance reduction method for Monte Carlo simulations of radiative transfer in cloudy atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Cui, Shengcheng; Yang, Jun; Gao, Haiyang; Liu, Chao; Zhang, Zhibo

2017-03-01

We present a novel hybrid scattering order-dependent variance reduction method to accelerate the convergence rate in both forward and backward Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations involving highly forward-peaked scattering phase function. This method is built upon a newly developed theoretical framework that not only unifies both forward and backward radiative transfer in scattering-order-dependent integral equation, but also generalizes the variance reduction formalism in a wide range of simulation scenarios. In previous studies, variance reduction is achieved either by using the scattering phase function forward truncation technique or the target directional importance sampling technique. Our method combines both of them. A novel feature of our method is that all the tuning parameters used for phase function truncation and importance sampling techniques at each order of scattering are automatically optimized by the scattering order-dependent numerical evaluation experiments. To make such experiments feasible, we present a new scattering order sampling algorithm by remodeling integral radiative transfer kernel for the phase function truncation method. The presented method has been implemented in our Multiple-Scaling-based Cloudy Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (MSCART) model for validation and evaluation. The main advantage of the method is that it greatly improves the trade-off between numerical efficiency and accuracy order by order.

SERENITY in e-Business and Smart Item Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benameur, Azzedine; Khoury, Paul El; Seguran, Magali; Sinha, Smriti Kumar

SERENITY Artefacts, like Class, Patterns, Implementations and Executable Components for Security & Dependability (S&D) in addition to Serenity Runtime Framework (SRF) are discussed in previous chapters. How to integrate these artefacts with applications in Serenity approach is discussed here with two scenarios. The e-Business scenario is a standard loan origination process in a bank. The Smart Item scenario is an Ambient intelligence case study where we take advantage of Smart Items to provide an electronic healthcare infrastructure for remote healthcare assistance. In both cases, we detail how the prototype implementations of the scenarios select proper executable components through Serenity Runtime Framework and then demonstrate how these executable components of the S&D Patterns are deployed.

You got a problem with that? Exploring evaluators' disagreements about ethics.

PubMed

Morris, M; Jacobs, L R

2000-08-01

A random sample of American Evaluation Association (AEA) members were surveyed for their reactions to three case scenarios--informed consent, impartial reporting, and stakeholder involvement--in which an evaluator acts in a way that could be deemed ethically problematic. Significant disagreement among respondents was found for each of the scenarios, in terms of respondents' views of whether the evaluator had behaved unethically. Respondents' explanations of their judgments support the notion that general guidelines for professional behavior (such as AEA's Guiding Principles for Evaluators) can encompass sharply conflicting interpretations of how evaluators should behave in specific situations. Respondents employed in private business/consulting were less likely than those in other settings to believe that the scenarios portrayed unethical behavior by the evaluator, a finding that underscores the importance of taking contextual variables into account when analyzing evaluators' ethical perceptions. The need for increased dialogue among evaluators who represent varied perspectives on ethical issues is addressed.

Land use change emissions from oil palm expansion in Pará, Brazil depend on proper policy enforcement on deforested lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yui, Sahoko; Yeh, Sonia

2013-12-01

Brazil aims to increase palm oil production to meet the growing national and global demand for edible oil and biodiesel while preserving environmentally and culturally significant areas. As land use change (LUC) is the result of complex interactions between socio-economic and biophysical drivers operating at multiple temporal and spatial scales, the type and location of LUC depend on drivers such as neighboring land use, conversion elasticity, access to infrastructure, distance to markets, and land suitability. The purpose of this study is to develop scenarios to measure the impact of land conversion under three different enforcement scenarios (none, some, and strict enforcement). We found that converting 22.5 million hectares of land can produce approximately 29 billion gallons (110 billion liters) of biodiesel a year. Of that, 22-71% of the area can come from forest land, conservation units, wetland and indigenous areas, emitting 14-84 gCO2e MJ-1. This direct land use emission alone can be higher than the carbon intensity of diesel that it intends to displace for lowering greenhouse gas emissions. This letter focuses narrowly on GHG emissions and does not address socio-economic-ecological prospects for these degraded lands for palm oil or for other purposes. Future studies should carefully evaluate these tradeoffs.

Hydroclimatic Change in the Congo River Basin: Past, Present and Future169

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aloysius, N. R.

2016-12-01

Tropical regions provide habitat for the world's most diverse fauna and flora, sequester more atmospheric carbon and provide livelihood for millions of people. The hydrological cycle provides vital linkages for maintaining these ecosystem functions, yet, the understanding of its spatiotemporal variability is limited. Research on the hydrological cycle of the Congo River Basin (CRB), which encompasses the second largest rainforests, has been largely ignored. Global Climate Models (GCM) show limited skills in simulating CRB's climate and their future projections vary widely. Yet, GCMs provide the most plausible scenarios of future climate, based upon which changes in hydrologic fluxes can be predicted with the aid hydrological models. In order to address the gaps in knowledge and to highlight the research needs, we i) developed a spatially explicit hydrological model suitable for describing key hydrological processes, ii) evaluated the performance of GCMs in simulating precipitation and temperature in the region, iii) developed a set of climate change scenarios for the CRB and iv) developed a simplified modeling framework to quantify water management options for rain-fed agriculture with the objective of achieving the triple goals of sustainable development: food security, poverty alleviation and ecosystem conservation. The hydrology model, which was validated with observed stream flows at 50 locations, satisfactorily characterizes spatiotemporal variability of key fluxes. Our evaluation of 25 GCM outputs reveal that many GCMs poorly simulate regional precipitation. We implemented a statistical bias-correction method to develop precipitation and temperature projections for two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. These climate forcings were, then, used to drive the hydrology model. Our results show that the near-term projections are not affected by emission scenarios. However, towards the mid-21st century, projections are emission scenario dependent. Available freshwater resources are projected to increase in the CRB, except in the semiarid southeast. Our findings have wider implications for climate change assessment and water resource management, because the region, with high population growth and limited capacity to adapt, are primary targets of land and water grabs. 155

nonlinMIP contribution to CMIP6: model intercomparison project for non-linear mechanisms: physical basis, experimental design and analysis principles (v1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Peter; Andrews, Timothy; Chadwick, Robin; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Lowe, Jason A.; Schaller, Nathalie; Shiogama, Hideo

2016-11-01

nonlinMIP provides experiments that account for state-dependent regional and global climate responses. The experiments have two main applications: (1) to focus understanding of responses to CO2 forcing on states relevant to specific policy or scientific questions (e.g. change under low-forcing scenarios, the benefits of mitigation, or from past cold climates to the present day), or (2) to understand the state dependence (non-linearity) of climate change - i.e. why doubling the forcing may not double the response. State dependence (non-linearity) of responses can be large at regional scales, with important implications for understanding mechanisms and for general circulation model (GCM) emulation techniques (e.g. energy balance models and pattern-scaling methods). However, these processes are hard to explore using traditional experiments, which explains why they have had so little attention in previous studies. Some single model studies have established novel analysis principles and some physical mechanisms. There is now a need to explore robustness and uncertainty in such mechanisms across a range of models (point 2 above), and, more broadly, to focus work on understanding the response to CO2 on climate states relevant to specific policy/science questions (point 1). nonlinMIP addresses this using a simple, small set of CO2-forced experiments that are able to separate linear and non-linear mechanisms cleanly, with a good signal-to-noise ratio - while being demonstrably traceable to realistic transient scenarios. The design builds on the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) protocols, and is centred around a suite of instantaneous atmospheric CO2 change experiments, with a ramp-up-ramp-down experiment to test traceability to gradual forcing scenarios. In all cases the models are intended to be used with CO2 concentrations rather than CO2 emissions as the input. The understanding gained will help interpret the spread in policy-relevant scenario projections. Here we outline the basic physical principles behind nonlinMIP, and the method of establishing traceability from abruptCO2 to gradual forcing experiments, before detailing the experimental design, and finally some analysis principles. The test of traceability from abruptCO2 to transient experiments is recommended as a standard analysis within the CMIP5 and CMIP6 DECK protocols.

Insights into future air quality: a multipollutant analysis of future scenarios using the MARKAL model

EPA Science Inventory

In this presentation, we will provide an update on the development and evaluation of the Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The four AQF scenarios di...

Control of particle and power exhaust in pellet fuelled ITER DT scenarios employing integrated models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiesen, S.; Köchl, F.; Belo, P.; Kotov, V.; Loarte, A.; Parail, V.; Corrigan, G.; Garzotti, L.; Harting, D.

2017-07-01

The integrated model JINTRAC is employed to assess the dynamic density evolution of the ITER baseline scenario when fuelled by discrete pellets. The consequences on the core confinement properties, α-particle heating due to fusion and the effect on the ITER divertor operation, taking into account the material limitations on the target heat loads, are discussed within the integrated model. Using the model one can observe that stable but cyclical operational regimes can be achieved for a pellet-fuelled ITER ELMy H-mode scenario with Q  =  10 maintaining partially detached conditions in the divertor. It is shown that the level of divertor detachment is inversely correlated with the core plasma density due to α-particle heating, and thus depends on the density evolution cycle imposed by pellet ablations. The power crossing the separatrix to be dissipated depends on the enhancement of the transport in the pedestal region being linked with the pressure gradient evolution after pellet injection. The fuelling efficacy of the deposited pellet material is strongly dependent on the E  ×  B plasmoid drift. It is concluded that integrated models like JINTRAC, if validated and supported by realistic physics constraints, may help to establish suitable control schemes of particle and power exhaust in burning ITER DT-plasma scenarios.

Actor Interdependence in Collaborative Telelearning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wasson, Barbara; Bourdeau, Jacqueline

This paper presents a model of collaborative telelearning and describes how coordination theory has provided a framework for the analysis of actor (inter)dependencies in this scenario. The model is intended to inform the instructional design of learning scenarios, the technological design of the telelearning environment, and the design of…

Mapping of multiple parameter m-health scenarios to mobile WiMAX QoS variables.

PubMed

Alinejad, Ali; Philip, N; Istepanian, R S H

2011-01-01

Multiparameter m-health scenarios with bandwidth demanding requirements will be one of key applications in future 4 G mobile communication systems. These applications will potentially require specific spectrum allocations with higher quality of service requirements. Furthermore, one of the key 4 G technologies targeting m-health will be medical applications based on WiMAX systems. Hence, it is timely to evaluate such multiple parametric m-health scenarios over mobile WiMAX networks. In this paper, we address the preliminary performance analysis of mobile WiMAX network for multiparametric telemedical scenarios. In particular, we map the medical QoS to typical WiMAX QoS parameters to optimise the performance of these parameters in typical m-health scenario. Preliminary performance analyses of the proposed multiparametric scenarios are evaluated to provide essential information for future medical QoS requirements and constraints in these telemedical network environments.

The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.

PubMed Central

Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

1993-01-01

Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication. PMID:8265754

Population-based metaheuristic optimization in neutron optics and shielding design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DiJulio, D. D.; Björgvinsdóttir, H.; Zendler, C.; Bentley, P. M.

2016-11-01

Population-based metaheuristic algorithms are powerful tools in the design of neutron scattering instruments and the use of these types of algorithms for this purpose is becoming more and more commonplace. Today there exists a wide range of algorithms to choose from when designing an instrument and it is not always initially clear which may provide the best performance. Furthermore, due to the nature of these types of algorithms, the final solution found for a specific design scenario cannot always be guaranteed to be the global optimum. Therefore, to explore the potential benefits and differences between the varieties of these algorithms available, when applied to such design scenarios, we have carried out a detailed study of some commonly used algorithms. For this purpose, we have developed a new general optimization software package which combines a number of common metaheuristic algorithms within a single user interface and is designed specifically with neutronic calculations in mind. The algorithms included in the software are implementations of Particle-Swarm Optimization (PSO), Differential Evolution (DE), Artificial Bee Colony (ABC), and a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The software has been used to optimize the design of several problems in neutron optics and shielding, coupled with Monte-Carlo simulations, in order to evaluate the performance of the various algorithms. Generally, the performance of the algorithms depended on the specific scenarios, however it was found that DE provided the best average solutions in all scenarios investigated in this work.

Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan; Farda, Aleš

2018-02-01

The study examines climate change scenarios of Central European heat waves with a focus on related uncertainties in a large ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX and ENSEMBLES projects. Historical runs (1970-1999) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are evaluated against the E-OBS gridded data set in the first step. Although the RCMs are found to reproduce the frequency of heat waves quite well, those RCMs with the coarser grid (25 and 50 km) considerably overestimate the frequency of severe heat waves. This deficiency is improved in higher-resolution (12.5 km) EURO-CORDEX RCMs. In the near future (2020-2049), heat waves are projected to be nearly twice as frequent in comparison to the modelled historical period, and the increase is even larger for severe heat waves. Uncertainty originates mainly from the selection of RCMs and GCMs because the increase is similar for all concentration scenarios. For the late twenty-first century (2070-2099), a substantial increase in heat wave frequencies is projected, the magnitude of which depends mainly upon concentration scenario. Three to four heat waves per summer are projected in this period (compared to less than one in the recent climate), and severe heat waves are likely to become a regular phenomenon. This increment is primarily driven by a positive shift of temperature distribution, but changes in its scale and enhanced temporal autocorrelation of temperature also contribute to the projected increase in heat wave frequencies.

Current and future land use around a nationwide protected area network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, Christopher M.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Lewis, David J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.

2013-01-01

Land-use change around protected areas can reduce their effective size and limit their ability to conserve biodiversity because land-use change alters ecological processes and the ability of organisms to move freely among protected areas. The goal of our analysis was to inform conservation planning efforts for a nationwide network of protected lands by predicting future land use change. We evaluated the relative effect of three economic policy scenarios on land use surrounding the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's National Wildlife Refuges. We predicted changes for three land-use classes (forest/range, crop/pasture, and urban) by 2051. Our results showed an increase in forest/range lands (by 1.9% to 4.7% depending on the scenario), a decrease in crop/pasture between 15.2% and 23.1%, and a substantial increase in urban land use between 28.5% and 57.0%. The magnitude of land-use change differed strongly among different USFWS administrative regions, with the most change in the Upper Midwestern US (approximately 30%), and the Southeastern and Northeastern US (25%), and the rest of the U.S. between 15 and 20%. Among our scenarios, changes in land use were similar, with the exception of our “restricted-urban-growth” scenario, which resulted in noticeably different rates of change. This demonstrates that it will likely be difficult to influence land-use change patterns with national policies and that understanding regional land-use dynamics is critical for effective management and planning of protected lands throughout the U.S.

Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

mouloud, Hamidatou

2016-04-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

Variation in choice of study design: findings from the Epidemiology Design Decision Inventory and Evaluation (EDDIE) survey.

PubMed

Stang, Paul E; Ryan, Patrick B; Overhage, J Marc; Schuemie, Martijn J; Hartzema, Abraham G; Welebob, Emily

2013-10-01

Researchers using observational data to understand drug effects must make a number of analytic design choices that suit the characteristics of the data and the subject of the study. Review of the published literature suggests that there is a lack of consistency even when addressing the same research question in the same database. To characterize the degree of similarity or difference in the method and analysis choices made by observational database research experts when presented with research study scenarios. On-line survey using research scenarios on drug-effect studies to capture method selection and analysis choices that follow a dependency branching based on response to key questions. Voluntary participants experienced in epidemiological study design solicited for participation through registration on the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership website, membership in particular professional organizations, or links in relevant newsletters. Description (proportion) of respondents selecting particular methods and making specific analysis choices based on individual drug-outcome scenario pairs. The number of questions/decisions differed based on stem questions of study design, time-at-risk, outcome definition, and comparator. There is little consistency across scenarios, by drug or by outcome of interest, in the decisions made for design and analyses in scenarios using large healthcare databases. The most consistent choice was the cohort study design but variability in the other critical decisions was common. There is great variation among epidemiologists in the design and analytical choices that they make when implementing analyses in observational healthcare databases. These findings confirm that it will be important to generate empiric evidence to inform these decisions and to promote a better understanding of the impact of standardization on research implementation.

A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

PubMed Central

Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

2015-01-01

A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

Developing perturbations for Climate Change Impact Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewitson, Bruce

Following the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report [TAR; IPCC, 2001], and the paucity of climate change impact assessments from developing nations, there has been a significant growth in activities to redress this shortcoming. However, undertaking impact assessments (in relation to malaria, crop stress, regional water supply, etc.) is contingent on available climate-scale scenarios at time and space scales of relevance to the regional issues of importance. These scales are commonly far finer than even the native resolution of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) (the principal tools for climate change research), let alone the skillful resolution (scales of aggregation at which GCM observational error is acceptable for a given application) of GCMs.Consequently, there is a growing demand for regional-scale scenarios, which in turn are reliant on techniques to downscale from GCMs, such as empirical downscaling or nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs). These methods require significant skill, experiential knowledge, and computational infrastructure in order to derive credible regional-scale scenarios. In contrast, it is often the case that impact assessment researchers in developing nations have inadequate resources with limited access to scientists in the broader international scientific community who have the time and expertise to assist. However, where developing effective downscaled scenarios is problematic, it is possible that much useful information can still be obtained for impact assessments by examining the system sensitivity to largerscale climate perturbations. Consequently, one may argue that the early phase of assessing sensitivity and vulnerability should first be characterized by evaluation of the first-order impacts, rather than immediately addressing the finer, secondary factors that are dependant on scenarios derived through downscaling.

Thermal-hydrodynamic-chemical (THC) modeling based on geothermal field data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kiryukhin, Alexey; Xu, Tianfu; Pruess, Karsten

Data on fluid chemistry and rock mineralogy are evaluated for a number of geothermal fields located in the volcanic arc of Japan and Kamchatka, Russia, Common chemical characteristics are identified and used to define scenarios for detailed numerical modeling of coupled thermal hydrodynamic chemical (THC) processes. The following scenarios of parental geothermal fluid upflow were studied: (1) single-phase conditions, 260 C at the bottom ( Ogiri type); (2) two-phase conditions, 300 C at the bottom ( Hatchobaru type); and (3) heat pipe conditions, 260 C at the bottom ( Matsukawa type). THC modeling for the single-phase upflow scenario shows wairakite,more » quartz, K-feld spar and chlorite formed as the principal secondary minerals in the production zone, and illite-smectite formed below 230 C. THC modeling of the two-phase upflow shows that quartz, K-feldspar (microcline), wairakite and calcite precipitate in the model as principal secondary minerals in the production zone. THC modeling of heat pipe conditions shows no significant secondary deposition of minerals (quartz, K-feldspar, zeolites) in the production zone. The influence of thermodynamic and kinetic parameters of chemical interaction, and of mass fluxes on mineral phase changes, was found to be significant, depending on the upflow regime. It was found that no parental geothermal fluid inflow is needed for zeolite precipitation, which occurs above 140 C in saturated andesite, provided that the porosity is greater than 0.001. In contrast, quartz and K-feldspar precipitation may result in a significant porosity reduction over a hundred-year time scale under mass flux conditions, and complete fracture sealing will occur given sufficient time under either single-phase or two-phase upflow scenarios. A heat pipe scenario shows no significant porosity reduction due to lack of secondary mineral phase deposition.« less

A COMPUTATIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF NPS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS: ROLE OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY

EPA Science Inventory

Utility of complex distributed-parameter watershed models for evaluation of the effectiveness of non-point source sediment and nutrient abatement scenarios such as Best Management Practices (BMPs) often follows the traditional {calibrate ---> validate ---> predict} procedure. Des...

Impact of land use and land cover change on the water balance of a large agricultural watershed: Historical effects and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, Keith E.; Jha, Manoj K.; Zhang, You‐Kuan; Gassman, Philip W.; Wolter, Calvin F.

2009-01-01

Over the last century, land use and land cover (LULC) in the United States Corn Belt region shifted from mixed perennial and annual cropping systems to primarily annual crops. Historical LULC change impacted the annual water balance in many Midwestern basins by decreasing annual evapotranspiration (ET) and increasing streamflow and base flow. Recent expansion of the biofuel industry may lead to future LULC changes from increasing corn acreage and potential conversion of the industry to cellulosic bioenergy crops of warm or cool season grasses. In this paper, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate potential impacts from future LULC change on the annual and seasonal water balance of the Raccoon River watershed in west‐central Iowa. Three primary scenarios for LULC change and three scenario variants were evaluated, including an expansion of corn acreage in the watershed and two scenarios involving expansion of land using warm season and cool season grasses for ethanol biofuel. Modeling results were consistent with historical observations. Increased corn production will decrease annual ET and increase water yield and losses of nitrate, phosphorus, and sediment, whereas increasing perennialization will increase ET and decrease water yield and loss of nonpoint source pollutants. However, widespread tile drainage that exists today may limit the extent to which a mixed perennial‐annual land cover would ever resemble pre‐1940s hydrologic conditions. Study results indicate that future LULC change will affect the water balance of the watershed, with consequences largely dependent on the future LULC trajectory.

Hydrological and biogeochemical response of the Mediterranean Sea to freshwater flow changes for the end of the 21st century.

PubMed

Macias, Diego; Stips, Adolf; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Dosio, Alessandro

2018-01-01

We evaluate the changes on the hydrological (temperature and salinity) and biogeochemical (phytoplankton biomass) characteristics of the Mediterranean Sea induced by freshwater flow modifications under two different scenarios for the end of the 21st century. An ensemble of four regional climate model realizations using different global circulation models at the boundary and different emission scenarios are used to force a single ocean model for the Mediterranean Sea. Freshwater flow is modified according to the simulated changes in the precipitation rates for the different rivers' catchment regions. To isolate the effect resulting from a change in freshwater flow, model results are evaluated against a 'baseline' simulation realized assuming a constant inflow equivalent to climatologic values. Our model results indicate that sea surface salinity could be significantly altered by freshwater flow modification in specific regions and that the affected area and the sign of the anomaly are highly dependent on the used climate model and emission scenario. Sea surface temperature and phytoplankton biomass, on the contrary, show no coherent spatial pattern but a rather widespread scattered response. We found in open-water regions a significant negative relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies and phytoplankton biomass anomalies. This indicates that freshwater flow modification could alter the vertical stability of the water column throughout the Mediterranean Sea, by changing the strength of vertical mixing and consequently upper water fertilization. In coastal regions, however, the correlation between sea temperature anomalies and phytoplankton biomass is positive, indicating a larger importance of the physiological control of growth rates by temperature.

Alisse : Advanced life support system evaluator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunet, Jean; Gerbi, Olivier; André, Philippe; Davin, Elisabeth; Avezuela Rodriguez, Raul; Carbonero, Fernando; Soumalainen, Emilia; Lasseur, Christophe

Long duration missions, such as the establishment of permanent bases on the lunar surface or the travel to Mars, require such an amount of life support consumables (e.g. food, water and oxygen) that direct supply or re-supply from Earth is not an option anymore. Regenerative Life Support Systems are therefore necessary to sustain long-term manned space mission to increase recycling rates and so reduce the launched mass. The architecture of an Environmental Controlled Life Support System widely depends on the mission scenario. Even for a given mission scenario, different architectures could be envisaged which need to be evaluated and compared with appropriate tools. As these evaluation and comparison, based on the single criterion of Equivalent System Mass, was not considered com-prehensive enough, ESA is developing a multi-criteria evaluation tool: ALISSE (Advanced Life Support System Evaluator). The main objective of ALISSE, and of the work presented here, is the definition and implemen-tation of a metrics system, addressing the complexity of any ECLSS along its Life Cycle phases. A multi-dimensional and multi-criteria (i.e. mass, energy, efficiency, risk to human, reliability, crew time, sustainability, life cycle cost) approach is proposed through the development of a computing support platform. Each criterion being interrelated with the others, a model based system approach is used. ALISSE is expected to provide significant inputs to the ESA Concurrent Design Facility and, as a consequence, to be a highly valuable tool for decision process linked to any manned space mission. Full contact detail for the contact author : Jean Brunet Sherpa Engineering General Manager Phone : 0033(0)608097480 j.brunet@sherpa-eng.com

Development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario.

PubMed

Tait, Michael; Tait, Desiree; Thornton, Frances; Edwards, Mark

2008-11-01

This paper describes the development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario for student nurses. At present, there are insufficient opportunities in the United Kingdom (UK) for student nurses to experience clinical placements where their skills in care of the critically-ill can be developed. There is therefore a need for new learning materials that help learners recognise the signs of clinical deterioration and rehearse the management of critically-ill patients. One way of meeting this need is by using electronic care scenarios. Several electronic care scenarios have been developed at Swansea University as part of the eWARD project. This article describes the design and evaluation of a critical care scenario that follows the care of a road casualty (John Macadam) after admission to an intensive care unit. The scenario was designed by an advisory team comprising a clinical lecturer and e-learning specialists. After using the scenario, 144 nursing students completed a Web-based questionnaire that collected demographic and attitudinal data for analysis using SPSS. Nursing students had a strongly positive attitude to the scenario with median scores in excess of 20 compared to maxima of 25 for scales measuring ease-of-use, interactivity, realism and confidence. None of the demographic data collected had a significant effect on these attitudes. The positive attitude of student nurses to this scenario strongly supports its use to help learners to (1) acquire knowledge and awareness when real life placements in these settings are not available and (2) extend their knowledge after coming across similar situations in practice.

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

PubMed

Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

2016-01-01

Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were compatible with existing policy. We found that two key stakeholder groups, agricultural and Indigenous residents, had divergent satisfaction levels with the amount of clearing and agricultural development. Based on the range of benefits and potential adverse impacts of each scenario, we suggest that the 10% clearing scenarios are most aligned with stakeholder preferences and best balance preferences across stakeholder groups. Our approach to scenario planning is applicable generally to exploring the potential conflicts between goals for conservation and development. Our case study is particularly relevant to current discussion about increased agricultural and pastoral development in northern Australia.

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values

PubMed Central

Pressey, Robert L.; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.

2016-01-01

Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were compatible with existing policy. We found that two key stakeholder groups, agricultural and Indigenous residents, had divergent satisfaction levels with the amount of clearing and agricultural development. Based on the range of benefits and potential adverse impacts of each scenario, we suggest that the 10% clearing scenarios are most aligned with stakeholder preferences and best balance preferences across stakeholder groups. Our approach to scenario planning is applicable generally to exploring the potential conflicts between goals for conservation and development. Our case study is particularly relevant to current discussion about increased agricultural and pastoral development in northern Australia. PMID:27362347

Modeling the Local Ecological Response to Regional Landscape and Global Change Forcings: A Case Study of Bioenergy in North Carolina, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Costanza, J. K.; Tarr, N. M.; Apt, R.; Rubino, M. J.

2015-12-01

Sustainable energy policies in Europe have led to a growing market for bioenergy, and especially wood pellets, as a means to reduce fossil fuel emissions and the attendant socio-environmental consequences from climate change. However the introduction of this market has the potential to create significant negative ecological impacts whose costs are borne far from Europe. Because of its existing forest products infrastructure and resources, the Southeast US is viewed as an attractive supplier of wood pellets to Europe. Consequently, a new global telecoupling has developed between these two regions linking the natural capital of one region to the energy needs and greenhouse gas abatement policy of the other. Additionally, habitat for many important wildlife species in the Southeast lie within a rapidly urbanizing region characterized by low-density auto-dependent growth. Combined, these two forcings have the potential to rapidly degrade species-rich ecosystems. Here the ecological effects of increased European demand for wood pellets are examined in North Carolina. Future land use and vegetation change were projected using the results from linked urbanization, vegetation dynamics, life cycle analysis, and forest timber economics models. Ecological impacts as measured for 16 amphibian and avian species were evaluated under five bioenergy production scenarios and one urbanization-only scenario. Results indicate that highly vagile or upland species are able to take advantage of the increase in vegetated land cover, even if the majority of new habitat is in intensively managed forests. Conversely, more sessile and range-limited species, particularly those found in coastal plain systems such as bottomland hardwood forest, show steeper declines under the wood pellet scenarios than under the urbanization-only scenario. These results highlight the challenge of evaluating the sustainability of developing markets that seek to mitigate certain aspects of global environmental change but risk exacerbating others.

Large Portions Encourage the Selection of Palatable Rather Than Filling Foods.

PubMed

Brunstrom, Jeffrey M; Jarvstad, Andreas; Griggs, Rebecca L; Potter, Christina; Evans, Natalie R; Martin, Ashley A; Brooks, Jon Cw; Rogers, Peter J

2016-10-01

Portion size is an important driver of larger meals. However, effects on food choice remain unclear. Our aim was to identify how portion size influences the effect of palatability and expected satiety on choice. In Study 1, adult participants (n = 24, 87.5% women) evaluated the palatability and expected satiety of 5 lunchtime meals and ranked them in order of preference. Separate ranks were elicited for equicaloric portions from 100 to 800 kcal (100-kcal steps). In Study 2, adult participants (n = 24, 75% women) evaluated 9 meals and ranked 100-600 kcal portions in 3 contexts (scenarios), believing that 1) the next meal would be at 1900, 2) they would receive only a bite of one food, and 3) a favorite dish would be offered immediately afterwards. Regression analysis was used to quantify predictors of choice. In Study 1, the extent to which expected satiety and palatability predicted choice was highly dependent on portion size (P < 0.001). With smaller portions, expected satiety was a positive predictor, playing a role equal to palatability (100-kcal portions: expected satiety, β: 0.42; palatability, β: 0.46). With larger portions, palatability was a strong predictor (600-kcal portions: β: 0.53), and expected satiety was a poor or negative predictor (600-kcal portions: β: -0.42). In Study 2, this pattern was moderated by context (P = 0.024). Results from scenario 1 replicated Study 1. However, expected satiety was a poor predictor in both scenario 2 (expected satiety was irrelevant) and scenario 3 (satiety was guaranteed), and palatability was the primary driver of choice across all portions. In adults, expected satiety influences food choice, but only when small equicaloric portions are compared. Larger portions not only promote the consumption of larger meals, but they encourage the adoption of food choice strategies motivated solely by palatability. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

An integrated Riverine Environmental Flow Decision Support System (REFDSS) to evaluate the ecological effects of alternative flow scenarios on river ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maloney, Kelly O.; Talbert, Colin B.; Cole, Jeffrey C.; Galbraith, Heather S.; Blakeslee, Carrie J.; Hanson, Leanne; Holmquist-Johnson, Christopher L.

2015-01-01

In regulated rivers, managers must evaluate competing flow release scenarios that attempt to balance both human and natural needs. Meeting these natural flow needs is complex due to the myriad of interacting physical and hydrological factors that affect ecosystems. Tools that synthesize the voluminous scientific data and models on these factors will facilitate management of these systems. Here, we present the Riverine Environmental Flow Decision Support System (REFDSS), a tool that enables evaluation of competing flow scenarios and other variables on instream habitat. We developed a REFDSS for the Upper Delaware River, USA, a system that is regulated by three headwater reservoirs. This version of the REFDSS has the ability to integrate any set of spatially explicit data and synthesizes modeled discharge for three competing management scenarios, flow-specific 2-D hydrodynamic modeled estimates of local hydrologic conditions (e.g., depth, velocity, shear stress, etc.) at a fine pixel-scale (1 m2), and habitat suitability criteria (HSC) for a variety of taxa. It contains all individual model outputs, computationally integrates these data, and outputs the amount of potentially available habitat for a suite of species of interest under each flow release scenario. Users have the flexibility to change the time period of interest and vary the HSC. The REFDSS was developed to enable side-by-side evaluation of different flow management scenarios and their effects on potential habitat availability, allowing managers to make informed decisions on the best flow scenarios. An exercise comparing two alternative flow scenarios to a baseline scenario for several key species is presented. The Upper Delaware REFDSS was robust to minor changes in HSC (± 10 %). The general REFDSS platform was developed as a user-friendly Windows desktop application that was designed to include other potential parameters of interest (e.g., temperature) and for transferability to other riverine systems.

Life cycle assessment of ethanol derived from sawdust.

PubMed

Roy, Poritosh; Dutta, Animesh

2013-12-01

The life cycle of ethanol derived from sawdust by enzymatic hydrolysis process is evaluated to determine if environmentally preferable and economically viable ethanol can be produced. Two scenarios are considered to estimate net energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and production costs. The estimated net energy consumption, GHG emission and production costs are 12.29-13.37 MJ/L, 0.75-0.92 kg CO2 e/L and about $0.98-$1.04/L, respectively depending on the scenarios of this study. The result confirmed that environmental benefit can be gained with present technologies; however, economic viability remains doubtful unless Feed-in Tariff (FiT) is considered. The production cost of ethanol reduces to $0.5/L, if FiT is considered to be $0.025/MJ. This study indicates that the implementation of FiT program for ethanol industry not only helps Ontario mitigate GHG emissions, but may also attract more investment and create rural employment opportunities. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Technical Interchange Meeting Guidelines Breakout

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fong, Rob

2002-01-01

Along with concept developers, the Systems Evaluation and Assessment (SEA) sub-element of VAMS will develop those scenarios and metrics required for testing the new concepts that reside within the System-Level Integrated Concepts (SLIC) sub-element in the VAMS project. These concepts will come from the NRA process, space act agreements, a university group, and other NASA researchers. The emphasis of those concepts is to increase capacity while at least maintaining the current safety level. The concept providers will initially develop their own scenarios and metrics for self-evaluation. In about a year, the SEA sub-element will become responsible for conducting initial evaluations of the concepts using a common scenario and metric set. This set may derive many components from the scenarios and metrics used by the concept providers. Ultimately, the common scenario\\metric set will be used to help determine the most feasible and beneficial concepts. A set of 15 questions and issues, discussed below, pertaining to the scenario and metric set, and its use for assessing concepts, was submitted by the SEA sub-element for consideration during the breakout session. The questions were divided among the three breakout groups. Each breakout group deliberated on its set of questions and provided a report on its discussion.

Comparing car drivers' and motorcyclists' opinions about junction crashes.

PubMed

Robbins, Chloe J; Allen, Harriet A; Chapman, Peter

2018-08-01

Motorcyclists are involved in a disproportionate number of crashes given the distance they travel, with a high proportion of these crashes occurring at junctions. Despite car drivers being solely responsible for many road crashes involving a motorcycle, previous research has mostly focussed on understanding motorcyclists' attitudes towards their own safety. We compared car drivers' (n = 102) and motorcyclists' (n = 579) opinions about junction crashes using a web-based questionnaire. Motorcyclists and car drivers were recruited in similar ways so that responses could be directly compared, accessing respondents through driver/rider forums and on social media. Car drivers' and motorcyclists' opinions were compared in relation to who they believe to be blameworthy in situations which varied in specificity, ranging from what road user they believe is most likely to cause a motorcyclist to have a road crash, to what road user is at fault in four specific scenarios involving a car and motorcycle at a junction. Two of these scenarios represented typical 'Right of way' (ROW) crashes with a motorcycle approaching from the left and right, and two scenarios involved a motorcycle overtaking another vehicle at the junction, known as 'Motorcycle Manoeuvrability Accidents' (MMA). Qualitative responses were analysed using LIWC software to detect objective differences in car drivers' and motorcyclists' language. Car drivers' and motorcyclists' opinions about the blameworthiness of accidents changed depending on how specific the situation was that was being presented. When respondents were asked about the cause of motorcycle crashes in a general abstract sense, car drivers' and motorcyclists' responses significantly differed, with motorcyclists more likely to blame car drivers, demonstrating an in-group bias. However, this in-group favouritism was reduced when asked about specific scenarios, especially in MMA situations which involve motorcyclists manoeuvring their motorcycles around cars at a junction. In the four specific scenarios, car drivers were more likely to blame the car driver, and motorcyclists were more likely to blame the motorcyclist. In the typical ROW scenarios, the responses given by both road users, as analysed by the LIWC, show that the law is taken into account, as well as a large emphasis on the lack of observation given around junctions, especially from car drivers. It is concluded that the perception of blameworthiness in crashes is very much dependent on the details of the crash, with a more specific situation eliciting a fairer evaluation by both car drivers and motorcyclists. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Risk prediction of Critical Infrastructures against extreme natural hazards: local and regional scale analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosato, Vittorio; Hounjet, Micheline; Burzel, Andreas; Di Pietro, Antonio; Tofani, Alberto; Pollino, Maurizio; Giovinazzi, Sonia

2016-04-01

Natural hazard events can induce severe impacts on the built environment; they can hit wide and densely populated areas, where there is a large number of (inter)dependent technological systems whose damages could cause the failure or malfunctioning of further different services, spreading the impacts on wider geographical areas. The EU project CIPRNet (Critical Infrastructures Preparedness and Resilience Research Network) is realizing an unprecedented Decision Support System (DSS) which enables to operationally perform risk prediction on Critical Infrastructures (CI) by predicting the occurrence of natural events (from long term weather to short nowcast predictions, correlating intrinsic vulnerabilities of CI elements with the different events' manifestation strengths, and analysing the resulting Damage Scenario. The Damage Scenario is then transformed into an Impact Scenario, where punctual CI element damages are transformed into micro (local area) or meso (regional) scale Services Outages. At the smaller scale, the DSS simulates detailed city models (where CI dependencies are explicitly accounted for) that are of important input for crisis management organizations whereas, at the regional scale by using approximate System-of-Systems model describing systemic interactions, the focus is on raising awareness. The DSS has allowed to develop a novel simulation framework for predicting earthquakes shake maps originating from a given seismic event, considering the shock wave propagation in inhomogeneous media and the subsequent produced damages by estimating building vulnerabilities on the basis of a phenomenological model [1, 2]. Moreover, in presence of areas containing river basins, when abundant precipitations are expected, the DSS solves the hydrodynamic 1D/2D models of the river basins for predicting the flux runoff and the corresponding flood dynamics. This calculation allows the estimation of the Damage Scenario and triggers the evaluation of the Impact Scenario. The regional output of cascading effects can be used as an input model for more detailed analyses within urban areas for instance. The DSS weights the overall expected Crisis Scenario by also considering, through an appropriate Consequences Analysis, the number of citizens affected by the Service(s) outages, the expected economic losses of the major industrial activities hit by the unavailability of relevant Services (electricity, water, telecommunications etc.) and the influence of outages of the availability of Public Services (hospitals, schools, public offices etc.) [1] S.Giovinazzi, S. Lagomarsino: A macroseismic method for the vulnerability assessment of buildings. 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, BC, Canada (2004) [2] S. Lagomarsino, S.Giovinazzi: Macroseismic and mechanical models for the vulnerability and damage assessment of current buildings. Bull Earthquake Eng., 4:415-443 (2006)

Adaptation Measures Evaliation on Agriculture Under Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios in Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Vicuna, S.; Gironas, J. A.; Meza, F. J.

2016-12-01

Future climate change scenarios threaten current practices in agriculture and therefore adaptation measures have been proposed to overcome this possible situation. Regional to local ideas apply for all kind of adaptation measures and can be found among literature for Central Chile, but their quantitative efficiency is rarely evaluated. Furthermore, land uses changes are commonly neglected in such evaluations. This research use the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) to simulate weekly water distribution and consumption in Chile's rural areas up to 2050. Using information directly provided by the Water User Organizations (WUO), the developed model assesses possible future impacts on 2 crops (corn and plum) under 15 climate scenarios and land use trends. Results show that WEAP-PGM tool can represent satisfactorily crop sensitiveness to historic and future circumstances. Nine scenarios satisfy average crop water demands, but all of them present a diminished yield (1%-14%) and production (8%-20%). Just six scenarios cannot meet crop water demands (40-70% of reliability) if adaptation measures are not applied. Given this need, two adaptation measures were evaluated: a) using all water rights and b) irrigation improvements. The second option showed to be the most effective measure leading to the satisfaction of crop water demands under all the scenarios, but still a diminished yield and production remained.

Determining which land management practices reduce catchment scale flood risk and where to implement them for optimum effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattison, Ian; Lane, Stuart; Hardy, Richard; Reaney, Sim

2010-05-01

The theoretical basis for why changes in land management might increase flood risk are well known, but proving them through numerical modelling still remains a challenge. In large catchments, like the River Eden in Cumbria, NW England, one of the reasons for this is that it is unfeasible to test multiple scenarios in all their possible locations. We have developed two linked approaches to refine the number of scenarios and locations using 1) spatial downscaling and 2) participatory decision making, which potentially should increase the likelihood of finding a link between land use and downstream flooding. Firstly, land management practices can have both flood reducing and flood increasing effects, depending on their location. As a result some areas of the catchment are more important in determining downstream flood risk than others, depending on the land use and hydrological connectivity. We apply a downscaling approach to identify which sub-catchments are most important in explaining downstream flooding. This is important because it is in these areas that management options are most likely to have a positive and detectable effect. Secondly, once the dominant sub-catchment has been identified, the land management scenarios that are both feasible and likely to impact flood risk need to be determined. This was done through active stakeholder engagement. The stakeholder group undertook a brainstorming exercise, which suggested about 30 different rural land management scenarios, which were mapped on to a literature-based conceptual framework of hydrological processes. Then these options were evaluated based on five criteria: relevance to catchment, scientific effectiveness, testability, robustness/uncertainty and feasibility of implementation. The suitability of each scenario was discussed and prioritised by the stakeholder group based on scientific needs and expectations and local suitability and feasibility. The next stage of the participatory approach was a mapping workshop, whereby a map of the catchment was laid out and locations where each scenario could feasibly be implemented were drawn on. This was combined with an analysis of historical maps to identify past land covers and a catchment walkover survey to put modelling work in the real world context. The land management scenarios were tested using hydrological and hydraulic models. Landscape scale changes, such as the effects of compaction and afforestation were tested using a catchment scale hydrological mode, CRUM2D. Channel scale changes, such as re-meandering and floodplain storage were tested using the 1D hydraulic model, iSIS, by altering channel cross sections and creating spills between the channel and floodplain. It is expected that the channel modification and floodplain storage scenarios will have the greatest impact on flooding both at the local and catchment scales. The landscape scale changes are more diffuse and therefore their impact is expected to be less significant. Although, early analysis indicates that the spatial location of changes strongly influences their effect on flooding.

Quantifying the combined effects of land use and climate changes on stream flow and nutrient loads: A modelling approach in the Odense Fjord catchment (Denmark).

PubMed

Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Andersen, Hans E; Nielsen, Anders; Thodsen, Hans; Trolle, Dennis

2018-04-15

Water pollution and water scarcity are among the main environmental challenges faced by the European Union, and multiple stressors compromise the integrity of water resources and ecosystems. Particularly in lowland areas of northern Europe, high population density, flood protection and, especially, intensive agriculture, are important drivers of water quality degradation. In addition, future climate and land use changes may interact, with uncertain consequences for water resources. Modelling approaches have become essential to address water issues and to evaluate ecosystem management. In this work, three multi-stressor future storylines combining climatic and socio-economic changes, defined at European level, have been downscaled for the Odense Fjord catchment (Denmark), giving three scenarios: High-Tech agriculture (HT), Agriculture for Nature (AN) and Market-Driven agriculture (MD). The impacts of these scenarios on water discharge and inorganic and organic nutrient loads to the streams have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The results revealed that the scenario-specific climate inputs were most important when simulating hydrology, increasing river discharge in the HT and MD scenarios (which followed the high emission 8.5 representative concentration pathway, RCP), while remaining stable in the AN scenario (RCP 4.5). Moreover, discharge was the main driver of changes in organic nutrients and inorganic phosphorus loads that consequently increased in a high emission scenario. Nevertheless, both land use (via inputs of fertilizer) and climate changes affected the nitrate transport. Different levels of fertilization yielded a decrease in the nitrate load in AN and an increase in MD. In HT, however, nitrate losses remained stable because the fertilization decrease was counteracted by a flow increase. Thus, our results suggest that N loads will ultimately depend on future land use and management in an interaction with climate changes, and this knowledge is of utmost importance for the achievement of European environmental policy goals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, Robert L.

2013-04-01

Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to understand the trade-offs that exist between the additional costs of a scheme and the level of risk that is accommodated.

Past and predicted future changes in the land cover of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

De Jager, N. R.; Rohweder, J.J.; Nelson, J.C.

2013-01-01

This study provides one historical and two alternative future contexts for evaluating land cover modifications within the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) floodplain. Given previously documented changes in land use, river engineering, restoration efforts and hydro-climatic changes within the UMR basin and floodplain, we wanted to know which of these changes are the most important determinants of current and projected future floodplain land cover. We used Geographic Information System data covering approximately 37% of the UMR floodplain (3232 km2) for ca 1890 (pre-lock and dam) and three contemporary periods (1975, 1989 and 2000) across which river restoration actions have increased and hydro-climatic changes have occurred. We further developed two 50-year future scenarios from the spatially dependent land cover transitions that occurred from 1975 to 1989 (scenario A) and from 1989 to 2000 (scenario B) using Markov models.Land cover composition of the UMR did not change significantly from 1975 to 2000, indicating that current land cover continues to reflect historical modifications that support agricultural production and commercial navigation despite some floodplain restoration efforts and variation in river discharge. Projected future land cover composition based on scenario A was not significantly different from the land cover for 1975, 1989 or 2000 but was different from the land cover of scenario B, which was also different from all other periods. Scenario B forecasts transition of some forest and marsh habitat to open water by the year 2050 for some portions of the northern river and projects that some agricultural lands will transition to open water in the southern portion of the river. Future floodplain management and restoration planning efforts in the UMR should consider the potential consequences of continued shifts in hydro-climatic conditions that may occur as a result of climate change and the potential effects on floodplain land cover.

Examining the Pilot and Controller Performance Data When in a Free Flight with Weather Phenomenon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nituen, Celestine A.; Lozito, Sandra C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The present study investigated effects of weather related factors on the performance of pilots under free flight. A weather scenario was defined by a combination of precipitation factors (light rain, moderate rain, and heavy rain or snow), visibility (1,4,8 miles), wind conditions (light, medium, or heavy), cloud ceiling (800ft. below, 1800ft above, and 4000ft horizontal). The performance of the aircraft self-separation was evaluated in terms of detection accuracy and detection times for student- and commercial (expert) pilots. Overall, the results obtained from a behavioral analysis showed that in general, the ability to recognize intruder aircraft conflict incidents, followed by the ability to acquire the spatial location of the intruder aircraft relative to ownership aircraft were judged to be the major cognitive tasks as perceived by the participants during self-separation. Further, the participants rarely used cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) during conflict management related to aircraft separation, but used CDTI highly during decision-making tasks. In all weather scenarios, there were remarkable differences between expert and student pilots in detection times. In summary, weather scenarios were observed to affect intruder aircraft detection performance accuracies. There was interaction effects between weather Scenario-1 and Scenario-2 for climbing task data generated by both expert- and student- pilots at high traffic density. Scenario-3 weather condition provided an opportunity for poor detection accuracy as well as detection time increase. This may be attributed to low visibility. The intruder aircraft detection times were not affected by the weather conditions during climbing and descending tasks. The decision of pilots to fly into certain weather condition was dependent in part on the warning distance to the location of the weather. When pilots were warned of the weather conditions, they were more likely to fly their aircraft into it, but mostly when the warning was not close to the weather location.

Hunter perceptions and acceptance of alternative deer management regulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cornicelli, L.; Fulton, D.C.; Grund, M.D.; Fieberg, J.

2011-01-01

Wildlife managers are often confronted with a policy paradox where a majority of the public supports an outcome, but there is no agreement on specific management strategies to achieve this outcome. Previous research has also reported a link between regulatory acceptance, hunter satisfaction, and hunter participation rates. Thus, human dimensions research aimed at understanding hunter motivations and behavior is needed for effective management. In 2005, we surveyed Minnesota (USA) deer hunters (n = 6,000; 59% response) to evaluate attitudes regarding alternative deer (Odocoileus virginianus) harvest regulations. We also conducted a series of forced choice experiments in which respondents were asked to select an option from a list of representative regulations that might be adopted to achieve a particular deer management goal. Specifically, we modeled 5 deer population scenarios ranging from low populations with high buck-harvest rates to populations 50% over goal density. Our results indicate that hunters preferred different regulations depending on the population scenario, but generally preferred antler-point restrictions and disliked limiting buck licenses through a lottery. We also found consistency among scenarios, in that a small percentage of respondents indicated they would not hunt if regulations were changed. The results from this study should help wildlife managers design deer harvest regulations that are both acceptable to hunters and achieve management objectives. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Use of Portable Digital Devices to Analyze Autonomic Stress Response in Psychology Objective Structured Clinical Examination.

PubMed

Beltrán-Velasco, Ana Isabel; Bellido-Esteban, Alberto; Ruisoto-Palomera, Pablo; Clemente-Suárez, Vicente Javier

2018-01-12

The aim of the present study was to explore changes in the autonomic stress response of Psychology students in a Psychology Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) and their relationship with OSCE performance. Variables of autonomic modulation by the analysis of heart rate variability in temporal, frequency and non-linear domains, subjective perception of distress strait and academic performance were measured before and after the two different evaluations that composed the OSCE. A psychology objective structured clinical examination composed by two different evaluation scenarios produced a large anxiety anticipatory response, a habituation response in the first of the evaluation scenarios and a in the entire evaluation, and a no habituation response in the second evaluation scenario. Autonomic modulation parameters do not correlate with academic performance of students.

AERIS - applications for the environment : real-time information synthesis : eco-lanes operational scenario modeling report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-12-01

This report constitutes the detailed modeling and evaluation results of the Eco-Lanes Operational Scenario defined by the Applications for the Environment: Real-Time Information Synthesis (AERIS) Program. The Operational Scenario constitutes six appl...

Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) - a bottom-up, science-led approach to identifying indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mengis, Nadine; Keller, David P.; Oschlies, Andreas

2018-01-01

This study introduces the Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method, a bottom-up approach which combines expert judgment and statistical information to systematically select transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the state of the Earth system. The methods consists of two basic steps: (1) the calculation of a correlation matrix among variables relevant for a given research question and (2) the systematic evaluation of the matrix, to identify clusters of variables with similar behavior and respective mutually independent indicators. Optional further analysis steps include (3) the interpretation of the identified clusters, enabling a learning effect from the selection of indicators, (4) testing the robustness of identified clusters with respect to changes in forcing or boundary conditions, (5) enabling a comparative assessment of varying scenarios by constructing and evaluating a common correlation matrix, and (6) the inclusion of expert judgment, for example, to prescribe indicators, to allow for considerations other than statistical consistency. The example application of the SCoMaE method to Earth system model output forced by different CO2 emission scenarios reveals the necessity of reevaluating indicators identified in a historical scenario simulation for an accurate assessment of an intermediate-high, as well as a business-as-usual, climate change scenario simulation. This necessity arises from changes in prevailing correlations in the Earth system under varying climate forcing. For a comparative assessment of the three climate change scenarios, we construct and evaluate a common correlation matrix, in which we identify robust correlations between variables across the three considered scenarios.

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused by ozone was about 5.0-5.6% in the SSP2 scenario and 3.8-4.2% in the RCP scenario.

Synthetic Proxy Infrastructure for Task Evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Junghans, Christoph; Pavel, Robert

The Synthetic Proxy Infrastructure for Task Evaluation is a proxy application designed to support application developers in gauging the performance of various task granularities when determining how best to utilize task based programming models.The infrastructure is designed to provide examples of common communication patterns with a synthetic workload intended to provide performance data to evaluate programming model and platform overheads for the purpose of determining task granularity for task decomposition purposes. This is presented as a reference implementation of a proxy application with run-time configurable input and output task dependencies ranging from an embarrassingly parallel scenario to patterns with stencil-likemore » dependencies upon their nearest neighbors. Once all, if any, inputs are satisfied each task will execute a synthetic workload (a simple DGEMM of in this case) of varying size and output all, if any, outputs to the next tasks.The intent is for this reference implementation to be implemented as a proxy app in different programming models so as to provide the same infrastructure and to allow for application developers to simulate their own communication needs to assist in task decomposition under various models on a given platform.« less

Scenario studies as a synthetic and integrative research activity for Long-Term Ecological Research

Treesearch

Jonathan R. Thompson; Arnim Wiek; Frederick J. Swanson; Stephen R. Carpenter; Nancy Fresco; Teresa Hollingsworth; Thomas A. Spies; David R. Foster

2012-01-01

Scenario studies have emerged as a powerful approach for synthesizing diverse forms of research and for articulating and evaluating alternative socioecological futures. Unlike predictive modeling, scenarios do not attempt to forecast the precise or probable state of any variable at a given point in the future. Instead, comparisons among a set of contrasting scenarios...

Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management.

PubMed

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Brainard, Russell E

2016-01-01

Ecosystem modelling is increasingly used to explore ecosystem-level effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions. For coral reefs there has been increasing interest in recent decades in the use of ecosystem models for evaluating the effects of fishing and the efficacy of marine protected areas. However, ecosystem models that integrate physical forcings, biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, and human induced perturbations are still underdeveloped. We applied an ecosystem model (Atlantis) to the coral reef ecosystem of Guam using a suite of management scenarios prioritized in consultation with local resource managers to review the effects of each scenario on performance measures related to the ecosystem, the reef-fish fishery (e.g., fish landings) and coral habitat. Comparing tradeoffs across the selected scenarios showed that each scenario performed best for at least one of the selected performance indicators. The integrated 'full regulation' scenario outperformed other scenarios with four out of the six performance metrics at the cost of reef-fish landings. This model application quantifies the socio-ecological costs and benefits of alternative management scenarios. When the effects of climate change were taken into account, several scenarios performed equally well, but none prevented a collapse in coral biomass over the next few decades assuming a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management

PubMed Central

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Brainard, Russell E.

2016-01-01

Ecosystem modelling is increasingly used to explore ecosystem-level effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions. For coral reefs there has been increasing interest in recent decades in the use of ecosystem models for evaluating the effects of fishing and the efficacy of marine protected areas. However, ecosystem models that integrate physical forcings, biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, and human induced perturbations are still underdeveloped. We applied an ecosystem model (Atlantis) to the coral reef ecosystem of Guam using a suite of management scenarios prioritized in consultation with local resource managers to review the effects of each scenario on performance measures related to the ecosystem, the reef-fish fishery (e.g., fish landings) and coral habitat. Comparing tradeoffs across the selected scenarios showed that each scenario performed best for at least one of the selected performance indicators. The integrated ‘full regulation’ scenario outperformed other scenarios with four out of the six performance metrics at the cost of reef-fish landings. This model application quantifies the socio-ecological costs and benefits of alternative management scenarios. When the effects of climate change were taken into account, several scenarios performed equally well, but none prevented a collapse in coral biomass over the next few decades assuming a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario. PMID:27023183

Investigating the quark flavor dependence of the chiral magnetic effect with a multiphase transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ling; Ma, Chun-Wang; Ma, Guo-Liang

2018-03-01

Because the properties of the QCD phase transition and the chiral magnetic effect (CME) depend on the number of quark flavors (Nf) and quark mass, relativistic heavy-ion collisions provide a natural environment to investigate the flavor features if quark deconfinement occurs. We introduce an initial two-flavor or three-flavor dipole charge separation into a multiphase transport (AMPT) model to investigate the flavor dependence of the CME. By taking advantage of the recent ALICE data of charge azimuthal correlations with identified hadrons, we attempt to disentangle two-flavor and three-flavor CME scenarios in Pb+Pb collisions at 2.76 TeV. We find that the experimental data show a certain potential to distinguish the two scenarios, therefore we further suggest to collect more data to clarify the possible flavor dependence in future experiments.

An approach to the preliminary evaluation of Closed Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) scenarios and control strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahr, J. D.; Auslander, D. M.; Spear, R. C.; Young, G. E.

1982-01-01

Life support systems for manned space missions are discussed. A scenario analysis method was proposed for the initial step of comparing possible partial or total recycle scenarios. The method is discussed in detail.

AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS OF FARMINGTON BAY WETLANDS IN THE GREAT SALT LAKE

EPA Science Inventory

An Alternative Futures Analysis (AFA) was conducted to evaluate tradeoffs between landscape design scenarios and ecological services for Farmington Bay, Great Salt Lake (GSL), wetlands. Model scenarios included plan trend and conservation "futures" scenarios projected to 2030. ...

New Approaches for DC Balanced SpaceWire

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kisin, Alex; Rakow, Glenn

2016-01-01

Direct Current (DC) line balanced SpaceWire is attractive for a number of reasons. Firstly, a DC line balanced interface provides the ability to isolate the physical layer with either a transformer or capacitor to achieve higher common mode voltage rejection and/or the complete galvanic isolation in the case of a transformer. Secondly, it provides the possibility to reduce the number of conductors and transceivers in the classical SpaceWire interface by half by eliminating the Strobe line. Depending on the modulator scheme - the clock data recovery frequency requirements may be only twice that of the transmit clock, or even match the transmit clock: depending on the Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) decoder design. In this paper, several different implementation scenarios will be discussed. Two of these scenarios are backward compatible with the existing SpaceWire hardware standards except for changes at the character level. Three other scenarios, while decreasing by half the standard SpaceWire hardware components, will require changes at both the character and signal levels and work with fixed rates. Other scenarios with variable data rates will require an additional SpaceWire interface handshake initialization sequence.

Modelling global CO2 emissions into the atmosphere from crown, ground, and peat fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, Alexey V.; Mokhov, Igor I.; Chernokulsky, Alexander V.

2015-04-01

The scheme for natural fires implemented in the climate model (CM) developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP RAS) is extended by a module accounting for ground and peat fires. With the IAP RAS CM, the simulations are performed for 1700-2300 in accordance with the CMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, phase 5) protocol. The modelled present-day burnt area, BA, and the corresponding CO2 emissions into the atmosphere E agree with the GFED-3.1 estimates at most regions. In the 21st century, under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios, the global BA increases by 10-41% depending on scenario, and E increases by 11-39%. Under the mitigation scenario RCP 2.6, both BA and E slightly decrease in the 22nd-23rd centuries. For scenarios RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, they continue to increase in these two centuries. All these changes are mostly due to changes in natural fires activity in the boreal regions. Ground and peat fires contribute significantly to the total emissions of CO2 from natural fires (20-25% at the global scale depending on scenario and calendar year). Peat fires markedly intensify interannual variability of regional CO2 emissions from natural fires.

Leaching behaviour of incineration bottom ash in a reuse scenario: 12years-field data vs. lab test results.

PubMed

Di Gianfilippo, Martina; Hyks, Jiri; Verginelli, Iason; Costa, Giulia; Hjelmar, Ole; Lombardi, Francesco

2018-03-01

Several types of standardized laboratory leaching tests have been developed during the past few decades to evaluate the leaching behaviour of waste materials as a function of different parameters, such as the pH of the eluate and the liquid to solid ratio. However, the link between the results of these tests and leaching data collected from the field (e.g. in disposal or reuse scenarios) is not always straightforward. In this work, we compare data obtained from an on-going large scale field trial, in which municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash is being tested as road sub-base material, with the results obtained from percolation column and pH-dependence laboratory leaching tests carried out on the bottom ash at the beginning of the test. The comparisons reported in this paper show that for soluble substances (e.g. Cl, K and SO 4 ), percolation column tests can provide a good indication of the release expected in the field with deviations usually within a factor of 3. For metals characterized by a solubility-controlled release, i.e. that depends more on eluate pH than the liquid to solid ratio applied, the results of pH-dependence tests describe more accurately the eluate concentration trends observed in the field with deviations that in most cases (around 80%) are within one order of magnitude (see e.g. Al and Cd). The differences between field and lab-scale data might be in part ascribed to the occurrence in the field of weathering reactions (e.g. carbonation) but also to microbial decomposition of organic matter that modifying leachate pH affect the solubility of several constituents (e.g. Ca, Ba and Cr). Besides, weathering reactions can result in enhanced adsorption of fulvic acids to iron/aluminum (hydr)oxides, leading to a decrease in the leaching of fulvic acids and hence of elements such as Cu, Ni and Pb that strongly depend on DOC leaching. Overall, this comparison shows that percolation column tests and pH-dependence tests can represent a reliable screening tool to derive data that could be employed in risk-based analysis or life cycle assessment (LCA) frameworks for evaluating potential environmental impacts deriving from specific disposal/reuse options for waste materials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gravitational wave production from preheating: parameter dependence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Figueroa, Daniel G.; Torrentí, Francisco, E-mail: daniel.figueroa@cern.ch, E-mail: f.torrenti@csic.es

Parametric resonance is among the most efficient phenomena generating gravitational waves (GWs) in the early Universe. The dynamics of parametric resonance, and hence of the GWs, depend exclusively on the resonance parameter q . The latter is determined by the properties of each scenario: the initial amplitude and potential curvature of the oscillating field, and its coupling to other species. Previous works have only studied the GW production for fixed value(s) of q . We present an analytical derivation of the GW amplitude dependence on q , valid for any scenario, which we confront against numerical results. By running latticemore » simulations in an expanding grid, we study for a wide range of q values, the production of GWs in post-inflationary preheating scenarios driven by parametric resonance. We present simple fits for the final amplitude and position of the local maxima in the GW spectrum. Our parametrization allows to predict the location and amplitude of the GW background today, for an arbitrary q . The GW signal can be rather large, as h {sup 2Ω}{sub GW}( f {sub p} ) ∼< 10{sup −11}, but it is always peaked at high frequencies f {sub p} ∼> 10{sup 7} Hz. We also discuss the case of spectator-field scenarios, where the oscillatory field can be e.g. a curvaton, or the Standard Model Higgs.« less

Fault Injection Techniques and Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsueh, Mei-Chen; Tsai, Timothy K.; Iyer, Ravishankar K.

1997-01-01

Dependability evaluation involves the study of failures and errors. The destructive nature of a crash and long error latency make it difficult to identify the causes of failures in the operational environment. It is particularly hard to recreate a failure scenario for a large, complex system. To identify and understand potential failures, we use an experiment-based approach for studying the dependability of a system. Such an approach is applied not only during the conception and design phases, but also during the prototype and operational phases. To take an experiment-based approach, we must first understand a system's architecture, structure, and behavior. Specifically, we need to know its tolerance for faults and failures, including its built-in detection and recovery mechanisms, and we need specific instruments and tools to inject faults, create failures or errors, and monitor their effects.

Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lauber, T. Bruce; Stedman, Richard C.; Connelly, Nancy A; Rudstam, Lars G.; Ready, Richard C; Poe, Gregory L; Bunnell, David B.; Hook, Tomas O.; Koops, Marten A.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Rutherford, Edward S; Wittmann, Marion E.

2016-01-01

The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

Designing cost efficient buffer zone programs: An application of the FyrisSKZ tool in a Swedish catchment.

PubMed

Collentine, Dennis; Johnsson, Holger; Larsson, Peter; Markensten, Hampus; Persson, Kristian

2015-03-01

Riparian buffer zones are the only measure which has been used extensively in Sweden to reduce phosphorus losses from agricultural land. This paper describes how the FyrisSKZ web tool can be used to evaluate allocation scenarios using data from the Svärta River, an agricultural catchment located in central Sweden. Three scenarios are evaluated: a baseline, a uniform 6-m-wide buffer zone in each sub-catchment, and an allocation of areas of buffer zones to sub-catchments based on the average cost of reduction. The total P reduction increases by 30 % in the second scenario compared to the baseline scenario, and the average reduction per hectare increases by 90 % while total costs of the program fall by 32 %. In the third scenario, the average cost per unit of reduction (163 kg P(-1)) is the lowest of the three scenarios (58 % lower than the baseline) and has the lowest total program costs.

A National Energy-Water System Assessment Framework (NEWS): Synopsis of Stage 1 Research Strategy and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Macknick, J.; Newmark, R. L.; Cohen, S.; Sun, Y.; Tidwell, V. C.; Corsi, F.; Melillo, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Glidden, S.; Suh, S.

2017-12-01

The focus of this talk is on climate adaptation and the reliability of power supply infrastructure when viewed through the lens of strategic water issues. Power supply is critically dependent upon water resources, particularly to cool thermoelectric plants, making the sector particularly sensitive to any shifts in the geography or seasonality of water supply. We report on results from an NSF-Funded Water Sustainability and Climate effort aimed at uncovering key energy and economic system vulnerabilities. We have developed the National Energy-Water System assessment framework (NEWS) to systematically evaluate: a) the performance of the nation's electricity sector under multiple climate scenarios; b) the feasibility of alternative pathways to improve climate adaptation; and, c) the impacts of energy technology and investment tradeoffs on the economic productivity, water availability and aquatic ecosystem condition. Our project combines core engineering and geophysical models (ReEDS [Regional Energy Deployment System], TP2M [Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution], and WBM [Water Balance]) through unique digital "handshake" protocols that operate across different institutions and modeling platforms. Combined system outputs are fed into a regional-to-national scale economic input/output model to evaluate economic consequences of climate constraints, technology choices, and environmental regulation. The impact assessments in NEWS are carried out through a series of climate/energy policy scenario studies to 2050. We find that despite significant climate-water impacts on individual plants, the current US power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. However, the magnitude and implications of climate-water impacts vary depending on the configuration of the future power sector. To evaluate future power supply performance, we model alternative electricity sector pathways in combination with varying climate-water conditions. Further, water-linked disruptions in electricity supply yield substantial impacts on regional economies yet system-level shocks can be attenuated through different technology mixes and infrastructure.

Impact du réchauffement climatique sur le cycle hydrologique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planton, Serge; Déqué, Michel; Douville, Hervé; Spagnoli, Bruno

2005-02-01

At the planetary scale, the models consistently simulate an intensification of the hydrological cycle in a future climate, warmer than the present-day one. However, this intensification might be accompanied by its slowing down due to an increase of the residence time of water vapour in the atmosphere. The impact of climate change on extreme events is even more difficult to evaluate, as results are dependent on methods, emission scenarios and, above all, on models. However, the increase of extreme winter precipitation over northern Europe is a common feature of these evaluations. The hydrological cycle, through the geographical distribution of continental surface humidity, seems to play a key role on the possibility to detect the warming in France. To cite this article: S. Planton et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).

ACR Appropriateness Criteria Crohn Disease.

PubMed

Kim, David H; Carucci, Laura R; Baker, Mark E; Cash, Brooks D; Dillman, Jonathan R; Feig, Barry W; Fowler, Kathryn J; Gage, Kenneth L; Noto, Richard B; Smith, Martin P; Yaghmai, Vahid; Yee, Judy; Lalani, Tasneem

2015-10-01

Crohn disease is a chronic inflammatory disorder involving the gastrointestinal tract, characterized by episodic flares and times of remission. Underlying structural damage occurs progressively, with recurrent bouts of inflammation. The diagnosis and management of this disease process is dependent on several clinical, laboratory, imaging, endoscopic, and histologic factors. In recent years, with the maturation of CT enterography, and MR enterography, imaging has played an increasingly important role in relation to Crohn Disease. In addition to these specialized examination modalities, ultrasound and routine CT have potential uses. Fluoroscopy, radiography, and nuclear medicine may be less beneficial depending on the clinical scenario. The imaging modality best suited to evaluating this disease may change, depending on the target population, severity of presentation, and specific clinical situation. This document presents seven clinical scenarios (variants) in both the adult and pediatric populations and rates the appropriateness of the available imaging options. They are summarized in a consolidated table, and the underlying rationale and supporting literature are presented in the accompanying narrative. The ACR Appropriateness Criteria are evidence-based guidelines for specific clinical conditions that are reviewed every three years by a multidisciplinary expert panel. The guideline development and review include an extensive analysis of current medical literature from peer-reviewed journals and the application of a well established consensus methodology (modified Delphi) to rate the appropriateness of imaging and treatment procedures by the panel. In those instances in which evidence is lacking or not definitive, expert opinion may be used to recommend imaging or treatment. Copyright © 2015 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dry-bean production under climate change conditions in the north of Argentina: Risk assessment and economic implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feijoo, M.; Mestre, F.; Castagnaro, A.

This study evaluates the potential effect of climate change on Dry-bean production in Argentina, combining climate models, a crop productivity model and a yield response model estimation of climate variables on crop yields. The study was carried out in the North agricultural regions of Jujuy, Salta, Santiago del Estero and Tucuman which include the largest areas of Argentina where dry beans are grown as a high input crop. The paper combines the output from a crop model with different techniques of analysis. The scenarios used in this study were generated from the output of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): themore » Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) and the Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM). The study also includes a preliminary evaluation of the potential changes in monetary returns taking into account the possible variability of yields and prices, using mean-Gini stochastic dominance (MGSD). The results suggest that large climate change may have a negative impact on the Argentine agriculture sector, due to the high relevance of this product in the export sector. The difference negative effect depends on the varieties of dry bean and also the General Circulation Model scenarios considered for double levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.« less

Evaluation of Green Infrastructure on Peak Flow Mitigation Focusing on the Connectivity of Impervious Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Y.; Hwang, J.; Kwon, Y.

2017-12-01

The existence of impervious areas is one of the most distinguishing characteristics of urban catchments. It decreases infiltration and increases direct runoff in urban catchments. The recent introduction of green infrastructure in urban catchments for the purpose of sustainable development contributes to the decrease of the directly connected impervious areas (DCIA) by isolating existing impervious areas and consequently, to the flood risk mitigation. This study coupled the width function-based instantaneous hydrograph (WFIUH), which is able to handle the spatial distribution of the impervious areas, with the concept of the DCIA to assess the impact of decreasing DCIA on the shape of direct runoff hydrographs. Using several scenarios for typical green infrastructure and corresponding changes of DCIA in a test catchment, this study evaluated the effect of green infrastructure on the shape of the resulting direct runoff hydrographs and peak flows. The results showed that the changes in the DCIA immediately affects the shape of the direct runoff hydrograph and decreases peak flows depending on spatial implementation scenarios. The quantitative assessment of the spatial distribution of impervious areas and also the changes to the DCIA suggests effective and well-planned green infrastructure can be introduced in urban environments for flood risk management.

Coupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.

2016-01-01

Predictions of coastal evolution driven by episodic and persistent processes associated with storms and relative sea-level rise (SLR) are required to test our understanding, evaluate our predictive capability, and to provide guidance for coastal management decisions. Previous work demonstrated that the spatial variability of long-term shoreline change can be predicted using observed SLR rates, tide range, wave height, coastal slope, and a characterization of the geomorphic setting. The shoreline is not suf- ficient to indicate which processes are important in causing shoreline change, such as overwash that depends on coastal dune elevations. Predicting dune height is intrinsically important to assess future storm vulnerability. Here, we enhance shoreline-change predictions by including dune height as a vari- able in a statistical modeling approach. Dune height can also be used as an input variable, but it does not improve the shoreline-change prediction skill. Dune-height input does help to reduce prediction uncer- tainty. That is, by including dune height, the prediction is more precise but not more accurate. Comparing hindcast evaluations, better predictive skill was found when predicting dune height (0.8) compared with shoreline change (0.6). The skill depends on the level of detail of the model and we identify an optimized model that has high skill and minimal overfitting. The predictive model can be implemented with a range of forecast scenarios, and we illustrate the impacts of a higher future sea-level. This scenario shows that the shoreline change becomes increasingly erosional and more uncertain. Predicted dune heights are lower and the dune height uncertainty decreases.

Evaluation of comparative advantages in the profitability and competitiveness of the small-scale dairy system of Tulancingo Valley, Mexico.

PubMed

Posadas-Domínguez, Rodolfo Rogelio; Del Razo-Rodríguez, Oscar Enrique; Almaraz-Buendía, Isaac; Pelaez-Acero, Armando; Espinosa-Muñoz, Verónica; Rebollar-Rebollar, Samuel; Salinas-Martínez, Jesús Armando

2018-06-01

This article combines a Policy Analysis Matrix with a sensitivity and poverty line analysis with the objective of evaluating the economic contribution of comparative advantages to the private profitability and competitiveness of small-scale dairy systems. For 1 year, socioeconomic data were collected from 82 farms selected from four strata via statistical sampling. Two scenarios were established to determine the quantitative contribution of comparative advantages: (1) a simulated scenario, which accounted for the cost of purchasing the total food and the opportunity cost of the family labour force (FLF), and (2) an actual production scenario, which accounted for the cost of producing food and eliminating the payment of the FLF and included other income. The E3 and E4 producers were the most profitable and competitive in the simulated scenario and actual production scenario. Of the four scales evaluated, the E2 and E1 producers were the most efficient in taking advantage of the economic contribution provided by the comparative advantages in their own production of food and employment of the FLF, in addition to accounting for other income, a condition that increased their profitability by 171 and 144% and competitiveness by 346 and 273%, respectively. The poverty results indicated that only E3 and E4 producers were non-vulnerable in the simulated scenario and actual production scenario. The purchase of food was the comparative advantage with the greatest sensitivity to cost increases in the two scenarios analysed, which exacerbated the effect on the E1 and E2 producers.

Improving the Design of a Conservation Reserve for a Critically Endangered Species

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Setting aside protected areas is a key strategy for tackling biodiversity loss. Reserve effectiveness depends on the extent to which protected areas capture both known occurrences and areas likely to support the species. We assessed the effectiveness of the existing reserve network for Leadbeater’s Possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri) and other forest-dependent species, and compared the existing reserve system to a set of plausible reserve expansion options based on area targets implied in a recent Population Viability Analysis (PVA). The existing Leadbeater’s Reserve and surrounding reserve system captured 7.6% and 29.6% of cumulative habitat suitability, respectively, across the landscape. Expanded reserve scenarios captured 34% to 62% of cumulative habitat suitability. We found acute trade-offs between conserving Leadbeater’s Possum habitat and conserving habitat of other forest-dependent species. Our analysis provides a template for systematically expanding and evaluating reserve expansion options in terms of trade-offs between priority species’ needs. PMID:28121984

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bush, B.; Melaina, M.; Penev, M.

This report describes the development and analysis of detailed temporal and spatial scenarios for early market hydrogen fueling infrastructure clustering and fuel cell electric vehicle rollout using the Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization and Analysis (SERA) model. The report provides an overview of the SERA scenario development framework and discusses the approach used to develop the nationwidescenario.

Development of Hospital-Based Guidelines for Skeletal Survey in Young Children With Bruises

PubMed Central

Fakeye, Oludolapo; Mondestin, Valerie; Rubin, David M.; Localio, Russell; Feudtner, Chris

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To develop guidelines for performing an initial skeletal survey (SS) for children <24 months of age presenting with bruising in the hospital setting, combining available evidence with expert opinion. METHODS: Applying the Rand/UCLA Appropriateness Method, a multispecialty panel of 10 experts relied on evidence from the literature and their own clinical expertise in rating the appropriateness of performing SS for 198 clinical scenarios characterizing children <24 months old with bruising. After a moderated discussion of initial ratings, the scenarios were revised. Panelists re-rated SS appropriateness for 219 revised scenarios. For the 136 clinical scenarios in which SS was deemed appropriate, the panel finally assessed the necessity of SS. RESULTS: Panelists agreed that SS is “appropriate” for 62% (136/219) of scenarios, and “inappropriate” for children ≥12 months old with nonpatterned bruising on bony prominences. Panelists agreed that SS is “necessary” for 95% (129/136) of the appropriate scenarios. SS was deemed necessary for infants <6 months old regardless of bruise location, with rare exceptions, but the necessity of SS in older children depends on bruise location. According to the panelists, bruising on the cheek, eye area, ear, neck, upper arm, upper leg, hand, foot, torso, buttock, or genital area necessitates SS in children <12 months. CONCLUSIONS: The appropriateness and necessity of SS in children presenting for care to the hospital setting with bruising, as determined by a diverse panel of experts, depends on age of the child and location of bruising. PMID:25601982

The role of emotions for moral judgments depends on the type of emotion and moral scenario.

PubMed

Ugazio, Giuseppe; Lamm, Claus; Singer, Tania

2012-06-01

Emotions seem to play a critical role in moral judgment. However, the way in which emotions exert their influence on moral judgments is still poorly understood. This study proposes a novel theoretical approach suggesting that emotions influence moral judgments based on their motivational dimension. We tested the effects of two types of induced emotions with equal valence but with different motivational implications (anger and disgust), and four types of moral scenarios (disgust-related, impersonal, personal, and beliefs) on moral judgments. We hypothesized and found that approach motivation associated with anger would make moral judgments more permissible, while disgust, associated with withdrawal motivation, would make them less permissible. Moreover, these effects varied as a function of the type of scenario: the induced emotions only affected moral judgments concerning impersonal and personal scenarios, while we observed no effects for the other scenarios. These findings suggest that emotions can play an important role in moral judgment, but that their specific effects depend upon the type of emotion induced. Furthermore, induced emotion effects were more prevalent for moral decisions in personal and impersonal scenarios, possibly because these require the performance of an action rather than making an abstract judgment. We conclude that the effects of induced emotions on moral judgments can be predicted by taking their motivational dimension into account. This finding has important implications for moral psychology, as it points toward a previously overlooked mechanism linking emotions to moral judgments.

Evidence-based support for the all-hazards approach to emergency preparedness

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background During the last decade there has been a need to respond and recover from various types of emergencies including mass casualty events (MCEs), mass toxicological/chemical events (MTEs), and biological events (pandemics and bio-terror agents). Effective emergency preparedness is more likely to be achieved if an all-hazards response plan is adopted. Objectives To investigate if there is a relationship among hospitals' preparedness for various emergency scenarios, and whether components of one emergency scenario correlate with preparedness for other emergency scenarios. Methods Emergency preparedness levels of all acute-care hospitals for MCEs, MTEs, and biological events were evaluated, utilizing a structured evaluation tool based on measurable parameters. Evaluations were made by professional experts in two phases: evaluation of standard operating procedures (SOPs) followed by a site visit. Relationships among total preparedness and different components' scores for various types of emergencies were analyzed. Results Significant relationships were found among preparedness for different emergencies. Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for biological events correlated with preparedness for all investigated emergency scenarios. Strong correlations were found between training and drills with preparedness for all investigated emergency scenarios. Conclusions Fundamental critical building blocks such as SOPs, training, and drill programs improve preparedness for different emergencies including MCEs, MTEs, and biological events, more than other building blocks, such as equipment or knowledge of personnel. SOPs are especially important in unfamiliar emergency scenarios. The findings support the adoption of an all-hazards approach to emergency preparedness. PMID:23098065

A Biophysical Model for Hawaiian Coral Reefs: Coupling Local Ecology, Larval Transport and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapur, M. R.

2016-02-01

Simulative models of reef ecosystems have been used to evaluate ecological responses to a myriad of disturbance events, including fishing pressure, coral bleaching, invasion by alien species, and nutrient loading. The Coral Reef Scenario Evaluation Tool (CORSET), has been developed and instantiated for both the Meso-American Reef (MAR) and South China Sea (SCS) regions. This model is novel in that it accounts for the many scales at which reef ecosystem processes take place; is comprised of a "bottom-up" structure wherein complex behaviors are not pre-programmed, but emergent and highly portable to new systems. Local-scale dynamics are coupled across regions through larval connectivity matrices, derived sophisticated particle transport simulations that include key elements of larval behavior. By this approach, we are able to directly evaluate some of the potential consequences of larval connectivity patterns across a range of spatial scales and under multiple climate scenarios. This work develops and applies the CORSET (Coral Reef Scenario Evaluation Tool) to the Main Hawaiian Islands under a suite of climate and ecological scenarios. We introduce an adaptation constant into reef-building coral dynamics to simulate observed resiliencies to bleaching events. This presentation will share results from the model's instantiation under two Resource Concentration Pathway climate scenarios, with emphasis upon larval connectivity dynamics, emergent coral tolerance to increasing thermal anomalies, and patterns of spatial fishing closures. Results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, thermal tolerance and herbivore removal will have synergistic effects on reef resilience.

EVALUATING HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE TO FORECASTED LAND-USE CHANGE: SCENARIO TESTING IN TWO WESTERN U.S. WATERSHEDS

EPA Science Inventory

Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions ...

Factors Affecting the Acceptability of Suicide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deluty, Robert H.

1989-01-01

College students (N=780) read 1 of 12 scenarios of person who decided to commit suicide. Scenarios varied by age of victim (45 versus 70), gender, and illness (chronic depression, chronic physical pain, terminal bone cancer). Suicide evaluations tended to be significantly more favorable when evaluators were male, victims were male, victims were…

Design/build vs. traditional construction user delay modeling : an evaluation of the cost effectiveness of innovative construction methods for new construction. Part 1 : I-15 reconstruction in Davis County : evaluation of various traffic maintenance plans

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-05-01

This paper evaluates impact of various I-15 reconstruction closure scenarios on the travelers in Ogden area. The purpose of the research was to investigate impact of the scenarios and facilitate decision about future maintenance of traffic during the...

Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios

PubMed Central

Parham, Paul E.; Hughes, Dyfrig A.

2015-01-01

Despite the dependence of mosquito population dynamics on environmental conditions, the associated impact of climate and climate change on present and future malaria remains an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. Here, we develop a novel integration of mosquito, transmission and economic modelling to assess whether the cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against Plasmodium falciparum transmission by Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes depends on climatic conditions in low endemicity scenarios. We find that although temperature and rainfall affect the cost-effectiveness of IRS and/or LLIN scale-up, whether this is sufficient to influence policy depends on local endemicity, existing interventions, host immune response to infection and the emergence rate of insecticide resistance. For the scenarios considered, IRS is found to be more cost-effective than LLINs for the same level of scale-up, and both are more cost-effective at lower mean precipitation and higher variability in precipitation and temperature. We also find that the dependence of peak transmission on mean temperature translates into optimal temperatures for vector-based intervention cost-effectiveness. Further cost-effectiveness analysis that accounts for country-specific epidemiological and environmental heterogeneities is required to assess optimal intervention scale-up for elimination and better understand future transmission trends under climate change. PMID:25688017

Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA). Volume III. Institutional barriers to developing power generation facilities in the Pacific Northwest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morris, F. A.; Sawyer, C. H.; Maxwell, J. H.

1979-10-01

The Regional Assessments Division in the US Department of Energy (DOE) has undertaken a program to assess the probable consequences of various national energy policies in regions of the United States and to evaluate the constraints on national energy policy imposed by conditions in these regions. The program is referred to as the Regional Issues Identification and Assessment (RIIA) Program. Currently the RIIA Program is evaluating the Trendlong Mid-Mid scenario, a pattern of energy development for 1985 and 1990 derived from the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES) model. This scenario assumes a medium annual growth rate in both the nationalmore » demand for and national supply of energy. It has been disaggregated to specify the generating capacity to be supplied by each energy source in each state. Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) has the responsibility for evaluating the scenario for the Federal Region 10, consisting of Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. PNL is identifying impacts and constraints associated with realizing the scenario in a variety of categories, including air and water quality impacts, health and safety effects, and socioeconomic impacts. This report summarizes the analysis of one such category: institutional constraints - defined to include legal, organizational, and political barriers to the achievement of the scenario in the Northwest.« less

Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

2012-12-01

Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are widely used to provide insights into the dynamics of the coupled human and socio-economic system, including emission mitigation analysis and the generation of future emission scenarios. Similar to the climate modeling community, the integrated assessment community has a two decade history of model inter-comparison, which has served as one of the primary venues for model evaluation and confirmation. While analysis of historical trends in the socio-economic system has long played a key role in diagnostics of future scenarios from IAMs, formal hindcast experiments are just now being contemplated as evaluation exercises. Some initial thoughts on setting up such IAM evaluation experiments are discussed. Socio-economic systems do not follow strict physical laws, which means that evaluation needs to take place in a context, unlike that of physical system models, in which there are few fixed, unchanging relationships. Of course strict validation of even earth system models is not possible (Oreskes etal 2004), a fact borne out by the inability of models to constrain the climate sensitivity. Energy-system models have also been grappling with some of the same questions over the last quarter century. For example, one of "the many questions in the energy field that are waiting for answers in the next 20 years" identified by Hans Landsberg in 1985 was "Will the price of oil resume its upward movement?" Of course we are still asking this question today. While, arguably, even fewer constraints apply to socio-economic systems, numerous historical trends and patterns have been identified, although often only in broad terms, that are used to guide the development of model components, parameter ranges, and scenario assumptions. IAM evaluation exercises are expected to provide useful information for interpreting model results and improving model behavior. A key step is the recognition of model boundaries, that is, what is inside and outside the IAM. All IAM projections to date are conditional on assumed inputs such as population dynamics and economic growth. A key part of evaluation exercises will be the substantial effort needed to develop the necessary historical datasets. Given the fundamentally uncertain characteristics of the socio-economic system, alternative formulations of the evaluation question may turn out to be useful. For example, is is likely useful to ask: how much needs to be specified on order to be able to reproduce historical trends to within a given accuracy? There is also a close, and fundamental, link between evaluation and diagnostic exercises that aim to evaluate the characteristics of future scenarios (rates of growth, technology diffusion, etc.) against historical behavior. These exercises are currently being conducted by individual groups due, in part, due to the large diversity if IAM designs and goals. While all climate models are, to first order, modeling the same system, boundary conditions, and physical laws, this is not true for IAMs. The structure, and even feasibility, of a hindcast-style evaluation exercise can be very different depending on the structure of each specific integrated assessment model.

A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

2009-01-01

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

1992-01-01

The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all-subsonic future fleet. The methodology, procedures, and recommendations for the development of future HSCT and the subsonic fleet scenarios used for this evaluation are discussed.

Benchmarking test of empirical root water uptake models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

dos Santos, Marcos Alex; de Jong van Lier, Quirijn; van Dam, Jos C.; Freire Bezerra, Andre Herman

2017-01-01

Detailed physical models describing root water uptake (RWU) are an important tool for the prediction of RWU and crop transpiration, but the hydraulic parameters involved are hardly ever available, making them less attractive for many studies. Empirical models are more readily used because of their simplicity and the associated lower data requirements. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the capability of some empirical models to mimic the RWU distribution under varying environmental conditions predicted from numerical simulations with a detailed physical model. A review of some empirical models used as sub-models in ecohydrological models is presented, and alternative empirical RWU models are proposed. All these empirical models are analogous to the standard Feddes model, but differ in how RWU is partitioned over depth or how the transpiration reduction function is defined. The parameters of the empirical models are determined by inverse modelling of simulated depth-dependent RWU. The performance of the empirical models and their optimized empirical parameters depends on the scenario. The standard empirical Feddes model only performs well in scenarios with low root length density R, i.e. for scenarios with low RWU compensation. For medium and high R, the Feddes RWU model cannot mimic properly the root uptake dynamics as predicted by the physical model. The Jarvis RWU model in combination with the Feddes reduction function (JMf) only provides good predictions for low and medium R scenarios. For high R, it cannot mimic the uptake patterns predicted by the physical model. Incorporating a newly proposed reduction function into the Jarvis model improved RWU predictions. Regarding the ability of the models to predict plant transpiration, all models accounting for compensation show good performance. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) indicates that the Jarvis (2010) model (JMII), with no empirical parameters to be estimated, is the best model. The proposed models are better in predicting RWU patterns similar to the physical model. The statistical indices point to them as the best alternatives for mimicking RWU predictions of the physical model.

Aged particles derived from emissions of coal-fired power plants: The TERESA field results

PubMed Central

Kang, Choong-Min; Gupta, Tarun; Ruiz, Pablo A.; Wolfson, Jack M.; Ferguson, Stephen T.; Lawrence, Joy E.; Rohr, Annette C.; Godleski, John; Koutrakis, Petros

2013-01-01

The Toxicological Evaluation of Realistic Emissions Source Aerosols (TERESA) study was carried out at three US coal-fired power plants to investigate the potential toxicological effects of primary and photochemically aged (secondary) particles using in situ stack emissions. The exposure system designed successfully simulated chemical reactions that power plant emissions undergo in a plume during transport from the stack to receptor areas (e.g., urban areas). Test atmospheres developed for toxicological experiments included scenarios to simulate a sequence of atmospheric reactions that can occur in a plume: (1) primary emissions only; (2) H2SO4 aerosol from oxidation of SO2; (3) H2SO4 aerosol neutralized by gas-phase NH3; (4) neutralized H2SO4 with secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed by the reaction of α-pinene with O3; and (5) three control scenarios excluding primary particles. The aged particle mass concentrations varied significantly from 43.8 to 257.1 μg/m3 with respect to scenario and power plant. The highest was found when oxidized aerosols were neutralized by gas-phase NH3 with added SOA. The mass concentration depended primarily on the ratio of SO2 to NOx (particularly NO) emissions, which was determined mainly by coal composition and emissions controls. Particulate sulfate (H2SO4 + neutralized sulfate) and organic carbon (OC) were major components of the aged particles with added SOA, whereas trace elements were present at very low concentrations. Physical and chemical properties of aged particles appear to be influenced by coal type, emissions controls and the particular atmospheric scenarios employed. PMID:20462390

Economic assessment of home-based COPD management programs.

PubMed

Liu, Sheena Xin; Lee, Michael C; Atakhorrami, Maryam; Tatousek, Jan; McCormack, Meredith; Yung, Rex; Hart, Nicholas; White, David P

2013-12-01

Home-based exacerbation management programs have been proposed as an approach to reducing the clinical and financial burden of COPD. We demonstrate a framework to evaluate such programs in order to guide program design and performance decisions towards optimizing cost and clinical outcomes. This study models the impact of hypothetical exacerbation management programs through probabilistic Markov simulations. Patients were stratified by risk using exacerbation rates from the ECLIPSE study and expert opinion. Three scenarios were modeled, using base, worst and best case parameters to suggest potential telehealth program performance. In these scenarios, acute exacerbations could be detected early, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 60-90%. Detected acute exacerbations could be diverted to either a sub-acute pathway (12.5-50% probability), thus entirely avoiding hospitalization, or a lower cost pathway through length-of-stay reduction (14-28% reduction). For a cohort of patients without prior hospitalization, the base case telehealth scenario results in a cumulative per-patient lifetime savings of $2.9 K over ≈ 12 years. For a higher risk cohort of patients with a prior admission and 1 to 2 acute exacerbations per year, a cumulative $16K per patient was saved during the remaining ≈ 3 life-years. Acceptable prices for home-based exacerbation detection testing were highly dependent on patient risk and scenario, but ranged from $290-$1263 per month for the highest risk groups. These results suggest the economic viability of exacerbation management programs and highlight the importance of risk stratification in such programs. The presented model can further be adapted to model specific programs as trial data becomes available.

Trophic cascades of bottom-up and top-down forcing on nutrients and plankton in the Kattegat, evaluated by modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, Marcell Elo; Maar, Marie; Larsen, Janus; Møller, Eva Friis; Hansen, Per Juel

2017-05-01

The aim of the study was to investigate the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down forcing on trophic cascades in the pelagic food-web and the implications for water quality indicators (summer phytoplankton biomass and winter nutrients) in relation to management. The 3D ecological model ERGOM was validated and applied in a local set-up of the Kattegat, Denmark, using the off-line Flexsem framework. The model scenarios were conducted by changing the forcing by ± 20% of nutrient inputs (bottom-up) and mesozooplankton mortality (top-down), and both types of forcing combined. The model results showed that cascading effects operated differently depending on the forcing type. In the single-forcing bottom-up scenarios, the cascade directions were in the same direction as the forcing. For scenarios involving top-down, there was a skipped-level-transmission in the trophic responses that was either attenuated or amplified at different trophic levels. On a seasonal scale, bottom-up forcing showed strongest response during winter-spring for DIN and Chl a concentrations, whereas top-down forcing had the highest cascade strength during summer for Chl a concentrations and microzooplankton biomass. On annual basis, the system was more bottom-up than top-down controlled. Microzooplankton was found to play an important role in the pelagic food web as mediator of nutrient and energy fluxes. This study demonstrated that the best scenario for improved water quality was a combined reduction in nutrient input and mesozooplankton mortality calling for the need of an integrated management of marine areas exploited by human activities.

Prospective aquatic risk assessment for chemical mixtures in agricultural landscapes.

PubMed

Holmes, Christopher M; Brown, Colin D; Hamer, Mick; Jones, Russell; Maltby, Lorraine; Posthuma, Leo; Silberhorn, Eric; Teeter, Jerold Scott; Warne, Michael St J; Weltje, Lennart

2018-03-01

Environmental risk assessment of chemical mixtures is challenging because of the multitude of possible combinations that may occur. Aquatic risk from chemical mixtures in an agricultural landscape was evaluated prospectively in 2 exposure scenario case studies: at field scale for a program of 13 plant-protection products applied annually for 20 yr and at a watershed scale for a mixed land-use scenario over 30 yr with 12 plant-protection products and 2 veterinary pharmaceuticals used for beef cattle. Risk quotients were calculated from regulatory exposure models with typical real-world use patterns and regulatory acceptable concentrations for individual chemicals. The results could differentiate situations when there was concern associated with single chemicals from those when concern was associated with a mixture (based on concentration addition) with no single chemical triggering concern. Potential mixture risk was identified on 0.02 to 7.07% of the total days modeled, depending on the scenario, the taxa, and whether considering acute or chronic risk. Taxa at risk were influenced by receiving water body characteristics along with chemical use profiles and associated properties. The present study demonstrates that a scenario-based approach can be used to determine whether mixtures of chemicals pose risks over and above any identified using existing approaches for single chemicals, how often and to what magnitude, and ultimately which mixtures (and dominant chemicals) cause greatest concern. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:674-689. © 2017 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. © 2017 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

Evidence-practice gap for dental sealant application: results from a dental practice-based research network in Japan.

PubMed

Yokoyama, Yoko; Kakudate, Naoki; Sumida, Futoshi; Matsumoto, Yuki; Gilbert, Gregg H; Gordan, Valeria V

2016-12-01

The study aims were: (i) to examine dentist practice patterns regarding treatment recommendations for dental sealants; and (ii) to identify characteristics associated with this recommendation. The study was performed using a cross-sectional questionnaire survey (Clinicaltrials.gov registration number NCT01680848). Participants were Japanese dentists (n = 282) recruited from the Dental Practice-based Research Network Japan. Three clinical photographs of the occlusal surface of a mandibular first molar were presented, portraying increasing depths of cavitation in a 12-year-old patient with high caries risk. Sealants would be an appropriate treatment in all three scenarios. We asked about the treatment decision for each case. We then performed multiple logistic regression analyses to evaluate associations between the decision to recommend sealants, and dentist, patient and practice characteristics. Responses were obtained from 189 dentists (response rate = 67%). In the hypothetical scenarios, dentists' recommendations for sealants for the 12-year-old patient varied from 16% to 26% across the three hypothetical clinical scenarios. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that dentist agreement with the efficacy of assessment for caries risk showed a significant association with the percentages of patients receiving sealants. Dentist practice patterns for sealant treatment recommendation show changes that are dependent on caries severity. The dentists' recommendations for sealants for the 12-year-old patient were low for all three selected scenarios, based on indications for sealants in the American Dental Association guidelines. Recommending a sealant showed a significant relationship with the dentist having a higher agreement with efficacy of caries risk assessment. © 2016 FDI World Dental Federation.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, M. W.; Heath, G.; Sandor, D.

2013-04-01

Achieving the Department of Energy target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 depends on transportation-related strategies combining technology innovation, market adoption, and changes in consumer behavior. This study examines expanding low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure to achieve deep GHG emissions reductions, with an emphasis on fuel production facilities and retail components serving light-duty vehicles. Three distinct low-carbon fuel supply scenarios are examined: Portfolio: Successful deployment of a range of advanced vehicle and fuel technologies; Combustion: Market dominance by hybridized internal combustion engine vehicles fueled by advanced biofuels and natural gas; Electrification: Market dominance by electric drive vehiclesmore » in the LDV sector, including battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles, that are fueled by low-carbon electricity and hydrogen. A range of possible low-carbon fuel demand outcomes are explored in terms of the scale and scope of infrastructure expansion requirements and evaluated based on fuel costs, energy resource utilization, fuel production infrastructure expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion for LDVs. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored transportation-related strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence.« less

Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

2014-11-01

Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

A Context-Aware Model to Provide Positioning in Disaster Relief Scenarios

PubMed Central

Moreno, Daniel; Ochoa, Sergio F.; Meseguer, Roc

2015-01-01

The effectiveness of the work performed during disaster relief efforts is highly dependent on the coordination of activities conducted by the first responders deployed in the affected area. Such coordination, in turn, depends on an appropriate management of geo-referenced information. Therefore, enabling first responders to count on positioning capabilities during these activities is vital to increase the effectiveness of the response process. The positioning methods used in this scenario must assume a lack of infrastructure-based communication and electrical energy, which usually characterizes affected areas. Although positioning systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) have been shown to be useful, we cannot assume that all devices deployed in the area (or most of them) will have positioning capabilities by themselves. Typically, many first responders carry devices that are not capable of performing positioning on their own, but that require such a service. In order to help increase the positioning capability of first responders in disaster-affected areas, this paper presents a context-aware positioning model that allows mobile devices to estimate their position based on information gathered from their surroundings. The performance of the proposed model was evaluated using simulations, and the obtained results show that mobile devices without positioning capabilities were able to use the model to estimate their position. Moreover, the accuracy of the positioning model has been shown to be suitable for conducting most first response activities. PMID:26437406

Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

2016-08-01

The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand management scenario. Finally, it will be shown that applying the Meta scenario will improve the water resources from sustainably.

Using Scenario Planning to Evaluate the Impacts of Climate Change on Wildlife Populations and Communities in the Florida Everglades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catano, Christopher P.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Beerens, James M.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Brandt, Laura A.; Hart, Kristen M.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Trexler, Joel C.

2015-04-01

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Catano, Christopher P.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Beerens, James M.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Brandt, Laura A.; Hart, Kristen M.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Trexler, Joel C.

2015-01-01

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades.

PubMed

Catano, Christopher P; Romañach, Stephanie S; Beerens, James M; Pearlstine, Leonard G; Brandt, Laura A; Hart, Kristen M; Mazzotti, Frank J; Trexler, Joel C

2015-04-01

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Insights into future air quality: Analysis of future emissions scenarios using the MARKAL model

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will provide an update on the development and evaluation of four Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The primary differences between...

Planning Tool for Strategic Evaluation of Facility Plans - 13570

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Magoulas, Virginia; Cercy, Michael; Hall, Irin

2013-07-01

Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has developed a strategic planning tool for the evaluation of the utilization of its unique resources for processing and research and development of nuclear materials. The Planning Tool is a strategic level tool for assessing multiple missions that could be conducted utilizing the SRNL facilities and showcasing the plan. Traditional approaches using standard scheduling tools and laying out a strategy on paper tended to be labor intensive and offered either a limited or cluttered view for visualizing and communicating results. A tool that can assess the process throughput, duration, and utilization of the facility wasmore » needed. SRNL teamed with Newport News Shipbuilding (NNS), a division of Huntington Ingalls Industries, to create the next generation Planning Tool. The goal of this collaboration was to create a simulation based tool that allows for quick evaluation of strategies with respect to new or changing missions, and clearly communicates results to the decision makers. This tool has been built upon a mature modeling and simulation software previously developed by NNS. The Planning Tool provides a forum for capturing dependencies, constraints, activity flows, and variable factors. It is also a platform for quickly evaluating multiple mission scenarios, dynamically adding/updating scenarios, generating multiple views for evaluating/communicating results, and understanding where there are areas of risks and opportunities with respect to capacity. The Planning Tool that has been developed is useful in that it presents a clear visual plan for the missions at the Savannah River Site (SRS). It not only assists in communicating the plans to SRS corporate management, but also allows the area stakeholders a visual look at the future plans for SRS. The design of this tool makes it easily deployable to other facility and mission planning endeavors. (authors)« less

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 4: Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Four background scenarios that relate to alternative states of society in the next 25 to 50 years are described. The scenarios were developed for use in analyzing and evaluating alternative future intercity transportation technologies. The scenarios are based, in part, on discussions contained in the issue papers and, in part, on separate analysis of social and economic trends considered relevant for the evolution of intercity transportation.

The Effectiveness of Remote Facilitation in Simulation-Based Pediatric Resuscitation Training for Medical Students.

PubMed

Ohta, Kunio; Kurosawa, Hiroshi; Shiima, Yuko; Ikeyama, Takanari; Scott, James; Hayes, Scott; Gould, Michael; Buchanan, Newton; Nadkarni, Vinay; Nishisaki, Akira

2017-08-01

To assess the effectiveness of pediatric simulation by remote facilitation. We hypothesized that simulation by remote facilitation is more effective compared to simulation by an on-site facilitator. We defined remote facilitation as a facilitator remotely (1) introduces simulation-based learning and simulation environment, (2) runs scenarios, and (3) performs debriefing with an on-site facilitator. A remote simulation program for medical students during pediatric rotation was implemented. Groups were allocated to either remote or on-site facilitation depending on the availability of telemedicine technology. Both groups had identical 1-hour simulation sessions with 2 scenarios and debriefing. Their team performance was assessed with behavioral assessment tool by a trained rater. Perception by students was evaluated with Likert scale (1-7). Fifteen groups with 89 students participated in a simulation by remote facilitation, and 8 groups with 47 students participated in a simulation by on-site facilitation. Participant demographics and previous simulation experience were similar. Both groups improved their performance from first to second scenario: groups by remote simulation (first [8.5 ± 4.2] vs second [13.2 ± 6.2], P = 0.003), and groups by on-site simulation (first [6.9 ± 4.1] vs second [12.4 ± 6.4], P = 0.056). The performance improvement was not significantly different between the 2 groups (P = 0.94). Faculty evaluation by students was equally high in both groups (7 vs 7; P = 0.65). A pediatric acute care simulation by remote facilitation significantly improved students' performance. In this pilot study, remote facilitation seems as effective as a traditional, locally facilitated simulation. The remote simulation can be a strong alternative method, especially where experienced facilitators are limited.

Microalgal biomass production pathways: evaluation of life cycle environmental impacts.

PubMed

Zaimes, George G; Khanna, Vikas

2013-06-20

Microalgae are touted as an attractive alternative to traditional forms of biomass for biofuel production, due to high productivity, ability to be cultivated on marginal lands, and potential to utilize carbon dioxide (CO2) from industrial flue gas. This work examines the fossil energy return on investment (EROIfossil), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and direct Water Demands (WD) of producing dried algal biomass through the cultivation of microalgae in Open Raceway Ponds (ORP) for 21 geographic locations in the contiguous United States (U.S.). For each location, comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) is performed for multiple microalgal biomass production pathways, consisting of a combination of cultivation and harvesting options. Results indicate that the EROIfossil for microalgae biomass vary from 0.38 to 1.08 with life cycle GHG emissions of -46.2 to 48.9 (g CO2 eq/MJ-biomass) and direct WDs of 20.8 to 38.8 (Liters/MJ-biomass) over the range of scenarios analyzed. Further anaylsis reveals that the EROIfossil for production pathways is relatively location invariant, and that algae's life cycle energy balance and GHG impacts are highly dependent on cultivation and harvesting parameters. Contrarily, algae's direct water demands were found to be highly sensitive to geographic location, and thus may be a constraining factor in sustainable algal-derived biofuel production. Additionally, scenarios with promising EROIfossil and GHG emissions profiles are plagued with high technological uncertainty. Given the high variability in microalgae's energy and environmental performance, careful evaluation of the algae-to-fuel supply chain is necessary to ensure the long-term sustainability of emerging algal biofuel systems. Alternative production scenarios and technologies may have the potential to reduce the critical demands of biomass production, and should be considered to make algae a viable and more efficient biofuel alternative.

Willingness to pay for a QALY based on community member and patient preferences for temporary health states associated with herpes zoster.

PubMed

Lieu, Tracy A; Ray, G Thomas; Ortega-Sanchez, Ismael R; Kleinman, Ken; Rusinak, Donna; Prosser, Lisa A

2009-01-01

A clear sense of what society is willing to pay for a QALY could enhance the usefulness of cost-effectiveness analysis as a field. Scant information exists on willingness to pay (WTP) for a QALY based on direct elicitation of preferences from community members or patients. We had the opportunity to evaluate WTP per QALY using data from a survey on temporary health outcomes related to herpes zoster. Our aims were to (i) describe how much community members are willing to pay to save a QALY based on scenarios describing temporary health states; (ii) evaluate how WTP per QALY varies based on experience with the disease being described and with demographic variables; and (iii) evaluate how the duration and intensity of pain in a scenario influences WTP per QALY. Community members drawn from a nationally representative survey research panel (n = 478) completed an Internet-based survey using time trade-off (TTO) and WTP questions to value a series of scenarios that described herpes zoster cases of varying pain intensity (on a scale of 0-10) and duration (30 days to 1 year). Patients with shingles (n = 354) or postherpetic neuralgia (PHN; n = 120) [defined as having symptoms for 90 days or more] from two large healthcare systems completed telephone interviews with similar questions. Mean and median WTP per QALY values were calculated by dividing the WTP amount by the discounted time traded for each scenario. Responses with a WTP value of more than zero and a TTO value of zero (which would have resulted in an undefined value) were excluded. TTO values were discounted by 3% per year. WTP per QALY means were calculated after trimming the top and bottom 2.5% of responses. Multivariate analyses were conducted using generalized linear mixed models that assumed a negative binomial distribution. Among all respondents, the WTP per QALY ranged from a median of $US7000 to $US11,000 and a trimmed mean of $US26 000 to $US45,000 (year 2005 values), depending on the scenario described. WTP per QALY values varied significantly with respondent characteristics, as well as among respondents with similar characteristics. In multivariate analyses, the mean WTP per QALY was higher among respondents who were younger, male or had higher educational or income levels. After adjusting for these demographic variables, patients who had experienced shingles gave responses with the highest WTP per QALY values. Patients who had experienced PHN gave the lowest values, and community members gave values intermediate to the shingles and PHN groups. In multivariate models that evaluated the effects of pain and duration of the hypothetical zoster scenario, lower duration was associated with higher WTP per QALY. This effect appeared to be due to people increasing the amounts of time they would be willing to trade as duration increased, without proportional increases in the amounts of money they would be willing to pay. Community members and patients gave mean WTP per QALY values that varied significantly based on age, sex, socioeconomic status, experience with shingles and duration of the health state evaluated. The variability in WTP per QALY suggests that it may be difficult to define a unitary threshold of dollars per QALY for policy making based on cost-effectiveness analyses.

Scenario-Based Specification and Evaluation of Architectures for Health Monitoring of Aerospace Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukkamala, Ravi; Sundaram, P.

2001-01-01

HUMS systems have been an area of increased research in the recent times due to two main reasons: (a) increase in the occurrences of accidents in the aerospace, and (b) stricter FAA regulations on aircrafts maintenance [2]. There are several problems associated with the maintenance of aircrafts that the HUMS systems can solve through the use of several monitoring technologies.This paper documents our methodology of employing scenarios in the specification and evaluation of architecture for HUMS. Section 2 investigates related works that use scenarios in software development. Section 3 describes how we use scenarios in our work, which is followed by a demonstration of our methods in the development of KUMS in section 4. Conclusion summarizes results.

Potential effects of drought on carrying capacity for wintering waterfowl in the Central Valley of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petrie, Mark J.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Wolder, Mike A.; Isola, Craig R.; Yarris, Gregory S.; Skalos, Daniel A.

2016-01-01

We used the bioenergetics model TRUEMET to evaluate potential effects of California's recent drought on food supplies for waterfowl wintering in the Central Valley under a range of habitat and waterfowl population scenarios. In nondrought years in the current Central Valley landscape, food supplies are projected to be adequate for waterfowl from fall through early spring (except late March) even if waterfowl populations reach North American Waterfowl Management Plan goals. However, in all drought scenarios that we evaluated, food supplies were projected to be exhausted for ducks by mid- to late winter and by late winter or early spring for geese. For ducks, these results were strongly related to projected declines in winter-flooded rice fields that provide 45% of all the food energy available to ducks in the Central Valley in nondrought water years. Delayed flooding of some managed wetlands may help alleviate food shortages by providing wetland food resources better timed with waterfowl migration and abundance patterns in the Central Valley, as well as reducing the amount of water needed to manage these habitats. However, future research is needed to evaluate the impacts of delayed flooding on waterfowl hunting, and whether California's existing water delivery system would make delayed flooding feasible. Securing adequate water supplies for waterfowl and other wetland-dependent birds is among the greatest challenges facing resource managers in coming years, especially in the increasingly arid western United States.

EVALUATING HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE TO FORECASTED LAND-USE CHANGE: SCENARIO TESTING WITH THE AUTOMATED GEOSPATIAL WATERSHED ASSESSMENT (AGWA) TOOL

EPA Science Inventory

Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions...

The Education Council Report 2001: An Evaluation Based on the ATEE-RDC19 Scenarios.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mikl, Josef

2003-01-01

Examines recent developments in European Union educational policy, highlighting a 2001 document of the Education Council. Evaluates the document's intentions and directions from a pedagogical viewpoint and assesses the document using the Association for Teacher Education in Europe's scenario framework. Shows that future European Union education…

Scenario-Testing: Decision Rules for Evaluating Conflicting Probabilistic Claims.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dudczak, Craig A.; Baker, David

Evaluators of argument are frequently confronted by conflicting claims. While these claims are usually based on probabilities, they are often resolved with the accepted claim treated as though it were "true," while the rejected claim is treated as though it were "false." Scenario testing is the label applied to a set of…

Scenario Analysis: Evaluating Biodiversity Response to Forecasted Land-Use Change in the San Pedro River Basin (U.S.-Mexico)

EPA Science Inventory

Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions...

Health Risk Assessment of Ambient Air Concentrations of Benzene, Toluene and Xylene (BTX) in Service Station Environments

PubMed Central

Edokpolo, Benjamin; Yu, Qiming Jimmy; Connell, Des

2014-01-01

A comprehensive evaluation of the adverse health effects of human exposures to BTX from service station emissions was carried out using BTX exposure data from the scientific literature. The data was grouped into different scenarios based on activity, location and occupation and plotted as Cumulative Probability Distributions (CPD) plots. Health risk was evaluated for each scenario using the Hazard Quotient (HQ) at 50% (CEXP50) and 95% (CEXP95) exposure levels. HQ50 and HQ95 > 1 were obtained with benzene in the scenario for service station attendants and mechanics repairing petrol dispensing pumps indicating a possible health risk. The risk was minimized for service stations using vapour recovery systems which greatly reduced the benzene exposure levels. HQ50 and HQ95 < 1 were obtained for all other scenarios with benzene suggesting minimal risk for most of the exposed population. However, HQ50 and HQ95 < 1 was also found with toluene and xylene for all scenarios, suggesting minimal health risk. The lifetime excess Cancer Risk (CR) and Overall Risk Probability for cancer on exposure to benzene was calculated for all Scenarios and this was higher amongst service station attendants than any other scenario. PMID:24945191

When can a single-species, density-dependent model capture the dynamics of a consumer-resource system?

PubMed

Reynolds, Sara A; Brassil, Chad E

2013-12-21

Single-species population models often include density-dependence phenomenologically in order to approximate higher order mechanisms. Here we consider the common scenario in which density-dependence acts via depletion of a renewed resource. When the response of the resource is very quick relative to that of the consumer, the consumer dynamics can be captured by a single-species, density-dependent model. Time scale separation is used to show analytically how the shape of the density-dependent relationship depends on the type of resource and the form of the functional response. Resource types of abiotic, biotic, and biotic with migration are considered, in combination with linear and saturating functional responses. In some cases, we derive familiar forms of single-species models, adding to the justification for their use. In other scenarios novel forms of density-dependence are derived, for example an abiotic resource and a saturating functional response can result in a nonlinear density-dependent relationship in the associated single-species model of the consumer. In this case, the per capita relationship has both concave-up and concave-down sections. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

PubMed

Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

2015-07-01

This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Use of high fidelity operating room simulation to assess and teach communication, teamwork and laparoscopic skills: initial experience.

PubMed

Gettman, Matthew T; Pereira, Claudio W; Lipsky, Katja; Wilson, Torrence; Arnold, Jacqueline J; Leibovich, Bradley C; Karnes, R Jeffrey; Dong, Yue

2009-03-01

Structured opportunities for learning communication, teamwork and laparoscopic principles are limited for urology residents. We evaluated and taught teamwork, communication and laparoscopic skills to urology residents in a simulated operating room. Scenarios related to laparoscopy (insufflator failure, carbon dioxide embolism) were developed using mannequins, urology residents and nurses. These scenarios were developed based on Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education core competencies and performed in a simulation center. Between the pretest scenario (insufflation failure) and the posttest scenario (carbon dioxide embolism) instruction was given on teamwork, communication and laparoscopic skills. A total of 19 urology residents participated in the training that involved participation in at least 2 scenarios. Performance was evaluated using validated teamwork instruments, questionnaires and videotape analysis. Significant improvement was noted on validated teamwork instruments between scenarios based on resident (pretest 24, posttest 27, p = 0.01) and expert (pretest 16, posttest 25, p = 0.008) evaluation. Increased teamwork and team performance were also noted between scenarios on videotape analysis with significant improvement for adherence to best practice (p = 0.01) and maintenance of positive rapport among team members (p = 0.02). Significant improvement in the setup of the laparoscopic procedure was observed (p = 0.01). Favorable face and content validity was noted for both scenarios. Teamwork, intraoperative communication and laparoscopic skills of urology residents improved during the high fidelity simulation course. Face and content validity of the individual sessions was favorable. In this study high fidelity simulation was effective for assessing and teaching Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education core competencies related to intraoperative communication, teamwork and laparoscopic skills.

Effect of different scenarios for selective dry-cow therapy on udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics.

PubMed

Scherpenzeel, C G M; den Uijl, I E M; van Schaik, G; Riekerink, R G M Olde; Hogeveen, H; Lam, T J G M

2016-05-01

The goal of dry-cow therapy (DCT) is to reduce the prevalence of intramammary infections (IMI) by eliminating existing IMI at drying off and preventing new IMI from occurring during the dry period. Due to public health concerns, however, preventive use of antimicrobials has become questionable. In this study, we evaluated the effects of 8 scenarios for selecting animals for DCT, taking into account variation in parity and cow-level somatic cell count (SCC) at drying off. The aim of this study was to evaluate udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics at the herd level when using different scenarios for selecting cows for DCT. To enable calculation and comparison of the effects of different scenarios to select cows for DCT in an "average" herd, we created an example herd, with a virtual herd size of 100 dairy cows to be calving during a year. Udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics were evaluated during the dry period and the first 100 d in lactation, the period during which the greatest effect of DCT is expected. This leads to an estimated 13,551 cow-days at risk during a year in a 100-cow dairy herd. In addition to a blanket DCT (BDCT) scenario, we developed 7 scenarios to select cows for DCT based on SCC. The scenarios covered a range of possible approaches to select low-SCC cows for DCT, all based on cow-level SCC thresholds on the last milk recording before drying off. The incidence rate of clinical mastitis in the example herd varied from 11.6 to 14.5 cases of clinical mastitis per 10,000 cow-days at risk in the different scenarios, and the prevalence of subclinical mastitis varied from 38.8% in scenario 1 (BDCT) to 48.3% in scenario 8. Total antimicrobial usage for DCT and clinical mastitis treatment varied over the scenarios from 1.27 (scenario 8) to 3.15 animal daily dosages (BDCT), leading to a maximum reduction in antimicrobial usage of 60% for scenario 8 compared with BDCT. The total costs for each of the scenarios showed little variation, varying from €4,893 for scenario 5 to €5,383 for scenario 8. The effect of selective DCT compared with BDCT on udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics is influenced by the SCC criteria used to select cows for DCT. Scenario 2 resulted in the lowest increases in clinical and subclinical mastitis compared with BDCT. The greatest reduction in antimicrobial usage was achieved under scenario 8. From an economic perspective, lowest costs were achieved with scenario 5. Drying off dairy cows with antimicrobials has an effect on udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computer tool to evaluate the cue reactivity of chemically dependent individuals.

PubMed

Silva, Meire Luci da; Frère, Annie France; Oliveira, Henrique Jesus Quintino de; Martucci Neto, Helio; Scardovelli, Terigi Augusto

2017-03-01

Anxiety is one of the major influences on the dropout of relapse and treatment of substance abuse treatment. Chemically dependent individuals need (CDI) to be aware of their emotional state in situations of risk during their treatment. Many patients do not agree with the diagnosis of the therapist when considering them vulnerable to environmental stimuli related to drugs. This research presents a cue reactivity detection tool based on a device acquiring physiological signals connected to personal computer. Depending on the variations of the emotional state of the drug addict, alteration of the physiological signals will be detected by the computer tool (CT) which will modify the displayed virtual sets without intervention of the therapist. Developed in 3ds Max® software, the CT is composed of scenarios and objects that are in the habit of marijuana and cocaine dependent individual's daily life. The interaction with the environment is accomplished using a Human-Computer Interface (HCI) that converts incoming physiological signals indicating anxiety state into commands that change the scenes. Anxiety was characterized by the average variability from cardiac and respiratory rate of 30 volunteers submitted stress environment situations. To evaluate the effectiveness of cue reactivity a total of 50 volunteers who were marijuana, cocaine or both dependent were accompanied. Prior to CT, the results demonstrated a poor correlation between the therapists' predictions and those of the chemically dependent individuals. After exposure to the CT, there was a significant increase of 73% in awareness of the risks of relapse. We confirmed the hypothesis that the CT, controlled only by physiological signals, increases the perception of vulnerability to risk situations of individuals with dependence on marijuana, cocaine or both. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

European solvent industry group generic exposure scenario risk and exposure tool

PubMed Central

Zaleski, Rosemary T; Qian, Hua; Zelenka, Michael P; George-Ares, Anita; Money, Chris

2014-01-01

The European Solvents Industry Group (ESIG) Generic Exposure Scenario (GES) Risk and Exposure Tool (EGRET) was developed to facilitate the safety evaluation of consumer uses of solvents, as required by the European Union Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals (REACH) Regulation. This exposure-based risk assessment tool provides estimates of both exposure and risk characterization ratios for consumer uses. It builds upon the consumer portion of the European Center for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals (ECETOC) Targeted Risk Assessment (TRA) tool by implementing refinements described in ECETOC TR107. Technical enhancements included the use of additional data to refine scenario defaults and the ability to include additional parameters in exposure calculations. Scenarios were also added to cover all frequently encountered consumer uses of solvents. The TRA tool structure was modified to automatically determine conditions necessary for safe use. EGRET reports results using specific standard phrases in a format consistent with REACH exposure scenario guidance, in order that the outputs can be readily assimilated within safety data sheets and similar information technology systems. Evaluation of tool predictions for a range of commonly encountered consumer uses of solvents found it provides reasonable yet still conservative exposure estimates. PMID:23361440

European solvent industry group generic exposure scenario risk and exposure tool.

PubMed

Zaleski, Rosemary T; Qian, Hua; Zelenka, Michael P; George-Ares, Anita; Money, Chris

2014-01-01

The European Solvents Industry Group (ESIG) Generic Exposure Scenario (GES) Risk and Exposure Tool (EGRET) was developed to facilitate the safety evaluation of consumer uses of solvents, as required by the European Union Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals (REACH) Regulation. This exposure-based risk assessment tool provides estimates of both exposure and risk characterization ratios for consumer uses. It builds upon the consumer portion of the European Center for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals (ECETOC) Targeted Risk Assessment (TRA) tool by implementing refinements described in ECETOC TR107. Technical enhancements included the use of additional data to refine scenario defaults and the ability to include additional parameters in exposure calculations. Scenarios were also added to cover all frequently encountered consumer uses of solvents. The TRA tool structure was modified to automatically determine conditions necessary for safe use. EGRET reports results using specific standard phrases in a format consistent with REACH exposure scenario guidance, in order that the outputs can be readily assimilated within safety data sheets and similar information technology systems. Evaluation of tool predictions for a range of commonly encountered consumer uses of solvents found it provides reasonable yet still conservative exposure estimates.

New Approaches for Direct Current (DC) Balanced SpaceWire

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kisin, Alex; Rakow, Glenn

2016-01-01

Direct Current (DC) line balanced SpaceWire is attractive for a number of reasons. Firstly, a DC line balanced interface provides the ability to isolate the physical layer with either a transformer or capacitor to achieve higher common mode voltage rejection and or the complete galvanic isolation in the case of a transformer. And secondly, it provides the possibility to reduce the number of conductors and transceivers in the classical SpaceWire interface by half by eliminating the Strobe line. Depending on the modulator scheme the clock data recovery frequency requirements may be only twice that of the transmit clock, or even match the transmit clock: depending on the Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) decoder design. In this paper, several different implementation scenarios will be discussed. Two of these scenarios are backward compatible with the existing SpaceWire hardware standards except for changes at the character level. Three other scenarios, while decreasing by half the standard SpaceWire hardware components, will require changes at both the character and signal levels and work with fixed rates. Other scenarios with variable data rates will require an additional SpaceWire interface handshake initialization sequence.

3-D numerical evaluation of density effects on tracer tests.

PubMed

Beinhorn, M; Dietrich, P; Kolditz, O

2005-12-01

In this paper we present numerical simulations carried out to assess the importance of density-dependent flow on tracer plume development. The scenario considered in the study is characterized by a short-term tracer injection phase into a fully penetrating well and a natural hydraulic gradient. The scenario is thought to be typical for tracer tests conducted in the field. Using a reference case as a starting point, different model parameters were changed in order to determine their importance to density effects. The study is based on a three-dimensional model domain. Results were interpreted using concentration contours and a first moment analysis. Tracer injections of 0.036 kg per meter of saturated aquifer thickness do not cause significant density effects assuming hydraulic gradients of at least 0.1%. Higher tracer input masses, as used for geoelectrical investigations, may lead to buoyancy-induced flow in the early phase of a tracer test which in turn impacts further plume development. This also holds true for shallow aquifers. Results of simulations with different tracer injection rates and durations imply that the tracer input scenario has a negligible effect on density flow. Employing model cases with different realizations of a log conductivity random field, it could be shown that small variations of hydraulic conductivity in the vicinity of the tracer injection well have a major control on the local tracer distribution but do not mask effects of buoyancy-induced flow.

Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts.

PubMed

Longo, Marcos; Knox, Ryan G; Levine, Naomi M; Alves, Luciana F; Bonal, Damien; Camargo, Plinio B; Fitzjarrald, David R; Hayek, Matthew N; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Saleska, Scott R; da Silva, Rodrigo; Stark, Scott C; Tapajós, Raphael P; Wiedemann, Kenia T; Zhang, Ke; Wofsy, Steven C; Moorcroft, Paul R

2018-05-22

The impact of increases in drought frequency on the Amazon forest's composition, structure and functioning remain uncertain. We used a process- and individual-based ecosystem model (ED2) to quantify the forest's vulnerability to increased drought recurrence. We generated meteorologically realistic, drier-than-observed rainfall scenarios for two Amazon forest sites, Paracou (wetter) and Tapajós (drier), to evaluate the impacts of more frequent droughts on forest biomass, structure and composition. The wet site was insensitive to the tested scenarios, whereas at the dry site biomass declined when average rainfall reduction exceeded 15%, due to high mortality of large-sized evergreen trees. Biomass losses persisted when year-long drought recurrence was shorter than 2-7 yr, depending upon soil texture and leaf phenology. From the site-level scenario results, we developed regionally applicable metrics to quantify the Amazon forest's climatological proximity to rainfall regimes likely to cause biomass loss > 20% in 50 yr according to ED2 predictions. Nearly 25% (1.8 million km 2 ) of the Amazon forests could experience frequent droughts and biomass loss if mean annual rainfall or interannual variability changed by 2σ. At least 10% of the high-emission climate projections (CMIP5/RCP8.5 models) predict critically dry regimes over 25% of the Amazon forest area by 2100. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Dye injection for predicting pesticide movement in micro-irrigated polyethylene film mulch beds.

PubMed

Csinos, Alex S; Laska, James E; Childers, Stan

2002-04-01

A new method is described for tracing water movement in polyethylene film covered soil beds. Dye was delivered via a drip tape micro-irrigation system which was placed in the bed as the soil beds were shaped and covered with polyethylene film. The dye was injected into the system and irrigated with water for 4-24 h at 0.41-1.38 bar (41-138 kPa) pressure depending on the experiment. The dye appeared as blue circles on the soil surface within 20 min of injection and produced a three-dimensional pattern in the soil profile. Injection-irrigation-pressure scenarios were evaluated by measuring dye movement directly below and between emitters by sliding fabricated blades vertically into the bed at the desired examination point and excavating the soil away from the blade. The dye typically produced a U shape on the face of the bed and the area was calculated for each of these exposed faces. The area increased as the length of irrigation and water pressure increased. Interrupted irrigation (pulsing) scenarios did not alter the calculated areas encompassed by the dye compared to uninterrupted irrigation scenarios. The blue dye provided a direct, inexpensive and easy method of visualizing water movement in soil beds. This information will be used to optimize application of emulsifiable plant-care products in polyethylene film mulch beds.

Synergetic Effects of Alcohol/Water Mixing on the Catalytic Reductive Fractionation of Poplar Wood

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Renders, Tom; Van den Bosch, Sander; Vangeel, Thijs

One of the foremost challenges in lignocellulose conversion encompasses the integration of effective lignin valorization in current carbohydrate-oriented biorefinery schemes. Catalytic reductive fractionation (CRF) of lignocellulose offers a technology to simultaneously produce lignin-derived platform chemicals and a carbohydrate-enriched pulp via the combined action of lignin solvolysis and metal-catalyzed hydrogenolysis. Herein, the solvent (composition) plays a crucial role. In this contribution, we study the influence of alcohol/water mixtures by processing poplar sawdust in varying MeOH/water and EtOH/water blends. The results show particular effects that strongly depend on the applied water concentration. Low water concentrations enhance the removal of lignin from themore » biomass, while the majority of the carbohydrates are left untouched (scenario A). Contrarily, high water concentrations favor the solubilization of both hemicellulose and lignin, resulting in a more pure cellulosic residue (scenario B). For both scenarios, an evaluation was made to determine the most optimal solvent composition, based on two earlier introduced empirical efficiency descriptors (denoted LFDE and LFFE). According to these measures, 30 (A) and 70 vol % water (B) showed to be the optimal balance for both MeOH/water and EtOH/water mixtures. This successful implementation of alcohol/water mixtures allows operation under milder processing conditions in comparison to pure alcohol solvents, which is advantageous from an industrial point of view.« less

The impact of variation in scaling factors on the estimation of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Many physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models include values for metabolic rate parameters extrapolated from in vitro metabolism studies using scaling factors such as mg of microsomal protein per gram of liver (MPPGL) and liver mass (FVL). Variation in scaling factor values impacts metabolic rate parameter estimates (Vmax) and hence estimates of internal dose used in dose response analysis. The impacts of adult human variation in MPPGL and FVL on estimates of internal dose were assessed using a human PBPK model for BDCM for several internal dose metrics for two exposure scenarios (single 0.25 liter drink of water or 10 minute shower) under plausible (5 micrograms/L) and high level (20 micrograms/L) water concentrations. For both concentrations, all internal dose metrics were changed less than 5% for the showering scenario (combined inhalation and dermal exposure). In contrast, a 27-fold variation in area under the curve for BDCM in venous blood was observed at both oral exposure concentrations, whereas total amount of BDCM metabolized in liver was relatively unchanged. This analysis demonstrates that variability in the scaling factors used for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) for metabolic rate parameters can have a significant route-dependent impact on estimates of internal dose under environmentally relevant exposure scenarios. This indicates the need to evaluate both uncertainty and variability for scaling factors used for IVIVE. Sca

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Eliciting nicotine craving with virtual smoking cues.

PubMed

Gamito, Pedro; Oliveira, Jorge; Baptista, André; Morais, Diogo; Lopes, Paulo; Rosa, Pedro; Santos, Nuno; Brito, Rodrigo

2014-08-01

Craving is a strong desire to consume that emerges in every case of substance addiction. Previous studies have shown that eliciting craving with an exposure cues protocol can be a useful option for the treatment of nicotine dependence. Thus, the main goal of this study was to develop a virtual platform in order to induce craving in smokers. Fifty-five undergraduate students were randomly assigned to two different virtual environments: high arousal contextual cues and low arousal contextual cues scenarios (17 smokers with low nicotine dependency were excluded). An eye-tracker system was used to evaluate attention toward these cues. Eye fixation on smoking-related cues differed between smokers and nonsmokers, indicating that smokers focused more often on smoking-related cues than nonsmokers. Self-reports of craving are in agreement with these results and suggest a significant increase in craving after exposure to smoking cues. In sum, these data support the use of virtual environments for eliciting craving.

Evaluating hydrological response to forecasted land-use change—scenario testing with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kepner, William G.; Semmens, Darius J.; Hernandez, Mariano; Goodrich, David C.

2009-01-01

Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our ecosystem services now and into the future. During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer processing, and spatial-analysis technologies have been used to develop landscape information that can be integrated with hydrologic models to determine long-term change and make predictive inferences about the future. Two diverse case studies in northwest Oregon (Willamette River basin) and southeastern Arizona (San Pedro River) were examined in regard to future land use scenarios relative to their impact on surface water conditions (e.g., sediment yield and surface runoff) using hydrologic models associated with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The base reference grid for land cover was modified in both study locations to reflect stakeholder preferences 20 to 60 yrs into the future, and the consequences of landscape change were evaluated relative to the selected future scenarios. The two studies provide examples of integrating hydrologic modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to understand the potential impact of landscape change on ecosystem services.

Measuring the impact of alcohol-related disorders on quality of life through general population preferences.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Míguez, Eva; Mosquera Nogueira, Jacinto

To estimate the intangible effects of alcohol misuse on the drinker's quality of life, based on general population preferences METHODS: The most important effects (dimensions) were identified by means of two focus groups conducted with patients and specialists. The levels of these dimensions were combined to yield different scenarios. A sample of 300 people taken from the general Spanish population evaluated a subset of these scenarios, selected by using a fractional factorial design. We used the probability lottery equivalent method to derive the utility score for the evaluated scenarios, and the random-effects regression model to estimate the relative importance of each dimension and to derive the utility score for the rest of scenarios not directly evaluated. Four main dimensions were identified (family, physical health, psychological health and social) and divided into three levels of intensity. We found a wide variation in the utilities associated with the scenarios directly evaluated (ranging from 0.09 to 0.78). The dimensions with the greatest relative importance were physical health (36.4%) and family consequences (31.3%), followed by psychological (20.5%) and social consequences (11.8%). Our findings confirm the benefits of adopting a heterogeneous approach to measure the effects of alcohol misuse. The estimated utilities could have both clinical and economic applications. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

PubMed

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is story-based blended learning a promising avenue for skin and sexual health education? Results from the PAEDIMED project.

PubMed

Apfelbacher, Christian J; Deimling, Erika; Wulfhorst, Britta; Adler, Frederic; Diepgen, Thomas L; Linder, Dennis; Blenk, Holger; Stosiek, Nikolaus; Reinmann, Gabi

2010-03-01

The PAEDIMED study group developed a learning and teaching scenario for school health education in the area of skin and sexual health in Italy, Romania and Germany, combining web-based and traditional learning ("blended learning"). A questionnaire-based needs assessment and context analysis were conducted, based on which an education scenario was designed. Particular emphasis was put on emotional and motivational aspects, using narrative components in the didactic concept. The design process occupied a central role in the project (design-based research). Evaluation was both formative and summative. Continuous feedback was obtained from relevant stakeholders. Following a prototypical implementation, the scenario was evaluated using questionnaires. The results revealed a high level of acceptance of the education scenario as well as an increase in students' knowledge concerning skin and sexual health. Evaluation also suggested that health education is highly influenced by cultural background and habits as well as diverse contextual and personal conditions.

Do Crashes and Near Crashes in Simulator-Based Training Enhance Novice Drivers’ Visual Search for Latent Hazards?

PubMed Central

Vlakveld, Willem; Romoser, Matthew R. E.; Mehranian, Hasmik; Diete, Frank; Pollatsek, Alexander; Fisher, Donald L.

2012-01-01

Young drivers (younger than 25 years of age) are overrepresented in crashes. Research suggests that a relevant cause is inadequate visual search for possible hazards that are hidden from view. The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a low-cost, fixed-base simulator training program that would address this failure. It was hypothesized that elicited crashes in the simulator training would result in better scanning for latent hazards in scenarios that were similar to the training scenarios but situated in a different environment (near transfer), and, to a lesser degree, would result in better scanning in scenarios that had altogether different latent hazards than those contained in the training scenarios (far transfer). To test the hypotheses, 18 trained and 18 untrained young novice drivers were evaluated on an advanced driving simulator (different from the training simulator). The eye movements of both groups were measured. In near transfer scenarios, trained drivers fixated the hazardous region 84% of the time, compared with only 57% of untrained drivers. In far transfer scenarios, trained drivers fixated the hazardous region 71 % of the time, compared with only 53% of untrained drivers. The differences between trained and untrained drivers in both the near transfer scenarios and the far transfer scenarios were significant, with a large effect size in the near transfer scenarios and a medium effect size in the far transfer scenarios [respectively: U = 63.00, p(2-tailed) < .01, r = −.53, and U = 88.00, p(2-tailed)<.05,r = −.39]. PMID:23082041

Groundwater-pumping optimization for land-subsidence control in Beijing plain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Huanhuan; Andrews, Charles B.; Tian, Fang; Cao, Guoliang; Luo, Yong; Liu, Jiurong; Zheng, Chunmiao

2018-01-01

Beijing, in the North China plain, is one of the few megacities that uses groundwater as its main source of water supply. Groundwater accounts for about two-thirds of the city's water supply, and during the past 50 years the storage depletion from the unconsolidated aquifers underlying the city has been >10.4 billion m3. By 2010, groundwater pumping in the city had resulted in a cumulative subsidence of greater than 100 mm in an area of about 3,900 km2, with a maximum cumulative subsidence of >1,200 mm. This subsidence has caused significant social and economic losses in Beijing, including significant damage to underground utilities. This study was undertaken to evaluate various future pumping scenarios to assist in selecting an optimal pumping scenario to minimize overall subsidence, meet the requirements of the Beijing Land Subsidence Prevention Plan (BLSPP 2013-2020), and be consistent with continued sustainable economic development. A numerical groundwater and land-subsidence model was developed for the aquifer system of the Beijing plain to evaluate land subsidence rates under the possible future pumping scenarios. The optimal pumping scenario consistent with the evaluation constraints is a reduction in groundwater pumping from three major pumping centers by 100, 50 and 20%, respectively, while maintaining an annual pumping rate of 1.9 billion m3. This scenario's land-subsidence rates satisfy the BLSPP 2013-2020 and the pumping scenario is consistent with continued economic development. It is recommended that this pumping scenario be adopted for future land-subsidence management in Beijing.

Groundwater-pumping optimization for land-subsidence control in Beijing plain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Huanhuan; Andrews, Charles B.; Tian, Fang; Cao, Guoliang; Luo, Yong; Liu, Jiurong; Zheng, Chunmiao

2018-06-01

Beijing, in the North China plain, is one of the few megacities that uses groundwater as its main source of water supply. Groundwater accounts for about two-thirds of the city's water supply, and during the past 50 years the storage depletion from the unconsolidated aquifers underlying the city has been >10.4 billion m3. By 2010, groundwater pumping in the city had resulted in a cumulative subsidence of greater than 100 mm in an area of about 3,900 km2, with a maximum cumulative subsidence of >1,200 mm. This subsidence has caused significant social and economic losses in Beijing, including significant damage to underground utilities. This study was undertaken to evaluate various future pumping scenarios to assist in selecting an optimal pumping scenario to minimize overall subsidence, meet the requirements of the Beijing Land Subsidence Prevention Plan (BLSPP 2013-2020), and be consistent with continued sustainable economic development. A numerical groundwater and land-subsidence model was developed for the aquifer system of the Beijing plain to evaluate land subsidence rates under the possible future pumping scenarios. The optimal pumping scenario consistent with the evaluation constraints is a reduction in groundwater pumping from three major pumping centers by 100, 50 and 20%, respectively, while maintaining an annual pumping rate of 1.9 billion m3. This scenario's land-subsidence rates satisfy the BLSPP 2013-2020 and the pumping scenario is consistent with continued economic development. It is recommended that this pumping scenario be adopted for future land-subsidence management in Beijing.

The evaluation of the development mode of electric energy and air pollution control in Beijing based on the IPAC-SGM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Erdong; Guo, Chaoran; Liu, Liwei; Dai, Sichen; Li, Shangqi

2017-04-01

In recent years, China broke out a large-scale of fog and haze, particularly Beijing. Energy production and consumption of fossil fuel combustion emissions is the main source of environmental pollution and haze, and it is most prominent in the power industry. In this paper, we evaluate the relationship between Beijing power structure and the prevention and control of atmospheric pollution by Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China - Second Generation Model (IPAC-SGM). This paper explores the propulsion effect of the new energy industry on Beijing’s air pollution prevention and control by simulating the change of development of electric energy in Beijing under three scenarios which are benchmark scenario, general policy scenario and reinforced policy scenario.

Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios.

PubMed

Parham, Paul E; Hughes, Dyfrig A

2015-04-05

Despite the dependence of mosquito population dynamics on environmental conditions, the associated impact of climate and climate change on present and future malaria remains an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. Here, we develop a novel integration of mosquito, transmission and economic modelling to assess whether the cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against Plasmodium falciparum transmission by Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes depends on climatic conditions in low endemicity scenarios. We find that although temperature and rainfall affect the cost-effectiveness of IRS and/or LLIN scale-up, whether this is sufficient to influence policy depends on local endemicity, existing interventions, host immune response to infection and the emergence rate of insecticide resistance. For the scenarios considered, IRS is found to be more cost-effective than LLINs for the same level of scale-up, and both are more cost-effective at lower mean precipitation and higher variability in precipitation and temperature. We also find that the dependence of peak transmission on mean temperature translates into optimal temperatures for vector-based intervention cost-effectiveness. Further cost-effectiveness analysis that accounts for country-specific epidemiological and environmental heterogeneities is required to assess optimal intervention scale-up for elimination and better understand future transmission trends under climate change. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Ecosystem services and agriculture: tradeoffs and synergies

PubMed Central

Power, Alison G.

2010-01-01

Agricultural ecosystems provide humans with food, forage, bioenergy and pharmaceuticals and are essential to human wellbeing. These systems rely on ecosystem services provided by natural ecosystems, including pollination, biological pest control, maintenance of soil structure and fertility, nutrient cycling and hydrological services. Preliminary assessments indicate that the value of these ecosystem services to agriculture is enormous and often underappreciated. Agroecosystems also produce a variety of ecosystem services, such as regulation of soil and water quality, carbon sequestration, support for biodiversity and cultural services. Depending on management practices, agriculture can also be the source of numerous disservices, including loss of wildlife habitat, nutrient runoff, sedimentation of waterways, greenhouse gas emissions, and pesticide poisoning of humans and non-target species. The tradeoffs that may occur between provisioning services and other ecosystem services and disservices should be evaluated in terms of spatial scale, temporal scale and reversibility. As more effective methods for valuing ecosystem services become available, the potential for ‘win–win’ scenarios increases. Under all scenarios, appropriate agricultural management practices are critical to realizing the benefits of ecosystem services and reducing disservices from agricultural activities. PMID:20713396

A decision support system to find the best water allocation strategies in a Mediterranean river basin in future scenarios of global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Vasto-Terrientes, L.; Kumar, V.; Chao, T.-C.; Valls, A.

2016-03-01

Global change refers to climate changes, but also demographic, technological and economic changes. Predicted water scarcity will be critical in the coastal Mediterranean region, especially for provision to mid-sized and large-sized cities. This paper studies the case of the city of Tarragona, located at the Mediterranean area of north-eastern Spain (Catalonia). Several scenarios have been constructed to evaluate different sectorial water allocation policies to mitigate the water scarcity induced by global change. Future water supply and demand predictions have been made for three time spans. The decision support system presented is based on the outranking model, which constructs a partial pre-order based on pairwise preference relations among all the possible actions. The system analyses a hierarchical structure of criteria, including environmental and economic criteria. We compare several adaptation measures including alternative water sources, inter-basin water transfer and sectorial demand management coming from industry, agriculture and domestic sectors. Results indicate that the most appropriate water allocation strategies depend on the severity of the global change effects.

Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: a case study in North Dakota, USA.

PubMed

Li, Ruopu; Merchant, James W

2013-03-01

Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A versatile method for groundwater vulnerability projections in future scenarios.

PubMed

Stevenazzi, Stefania; Bonfanti, Marianna; Masetti, Marco; Nghiem, Son V; Sorichetta, Alessandro

2017-02-01

Water scarcity and associated risks are serious societal problems. A major challenge for the future will be to ensure the short-term and long-term provision of accessible and safe freshwater to meet the needs of the rapidly growing human population and changes in land cover and land use, where conservation and protection play a key role. Through a Bayesian spatial statistical method, a time-dependent approach for groundwater vulnerability assessment is developed to account for both the recent status of groundwater contamination and its evolution, as required by the European Union (Groundwater Directive, 2006/118/EC). This approach combines natural and anthropogenic factors to identify areas with a critical combination of high levels and increasing trends of nitrate concentrations, together with a quantitative evaluation of how different future scenarios would impact the quality of groundwater resources in a given area. In particular, the proposed approach can determine potential impacts on groundwater resources if policies are maintained at the status quo or if new measures are implemented for safeguarding groundwater quality, as natural factors are changing under climatic or anthropogenic stresses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cognitive Task Analysis of Business Jet Pilots' Weather Flying Behaviors: Preliminary Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Latorella, Kara; Pliske, Rebecca; Hutton, Robert; Chrenka, Jason

2001-01-01

This report presents preliminary findings from a cognitive task analysis (CTA) of business aviation piloting. Results describe challenging weather-related aviation decisions and the information and cues used to support these decisions. Further, these results demonstrate the role of expertise in business aviation decision-making in weather flying, and how weather information is acquired and assessed for reliability. The challenging weather scenarios and novice errors identified in the results provide the basis for experimental scenarios and dependent measures to be used in future flight simulation evaluations of candidate aviation weather information systems. Finally, we analyzed these preliminary results to recommend design and training interventions to improve business aviation decision-making with weather information. The primary objective of this report is to present these preliminary findings and to document the extended CTA methodology used to elicit and represent expert business aviator decision-making with weather information. These preliminary findings will be augmented with results from additional subjects using this methodology. A summary of the complete results, absent the detailed treatment of methodology provided in this report, will be documented in a separate publication.

Integrated Canada-U.S. Power Sector Modeling with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martinez, A.; Eurek, K.; Mai, T.

2013-02-01

The electric power system in North America is linked between the United States and Canada. Canada has historically been a net exporter of electricity to the United States. The extent to which this remains true will depend on the future evolution of power markets, technology deployment, and policies. To evaluate these and related questions, we modify the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to include an explicit representation of the grid-connected power system in Canada to the continental United States. ReEDS is unique among long-term capacity expansion models for its high spatial resolution and statistical treatment of the impact ofmore » variable renewable generation on capacity planning and dispatch. These unique traits are extended to new Canadian regions. We present example scenario results using the fully integrated Canada-U.S. version of ReEDS to demonstrate model capabilities. The newly developed, integrated Canada-U.S. ReEDS model can be used to analyze the dynamics of electricity transfers and other grid services between the two countries under different scenarios.« less

Empirical Evaluation of a Decision-Analytic Aid.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-05-01

scenarios may be attributable to the use of the Baye- sian revision model by the latter group . In the A scenarios, as well as in the NA scenarios, aided...inten- tions and to make a decision by recommending one of four prespecified courses of action. The use of the aiding package significantly increased...courses of action. The use of the aiding package significantly in- I creased the number of correct decisions under the attack version of the scenarios

Theoretical Impact of Replacing Whole Cow's Milk by Young-Child Formula on Nutrient Intakes of UK Young Children: Results of a Simulation Study.

PubMed

Eussen, Simone R B M; Pean, Josephine; Olivier, Leanne; Delaere, Fabien; Lluch, Anne

2015-01-01

Research into the role of young-child formulae (YCF) in a child's diet is limited and there is no consensual recommendation on its use. We evaluated the theoretical nutritional impact of replacing the existing practice of consuming cow's milk by YCF. From the UK Diet and Nutrition Survey of Infants and Young Children, whole cow's milk consumers, aged 12-18 months (n = 591) were selected for simulation scenarios. In Scenario 1, we tested the replacement of all whole cow's milk (434 ± 187 ml/day) by a matching volume of YCF, and in Scenario 2, all whole cow's milk was replaced by the on-pack recommended daily intake of 300 ml. Nutrient intakes before and after simulation scenarios were compared and evaluated against nutrient recommendations. Intakes of protein and saturated fatty acids were significantly decreased, whereas essential fatty acid intakes were increased. The prevalence of nutrient inadequacy before simulation was 95.2% for vitamin D and 53.8% for iron. After simulation, inadequacy decreased to 4.9% (Scenario 1) and 0% (Scenario 2) for vitamin D and to 2.7% (Scenario 1) and 1.1% (Scenario 2) for iron. Replacement of habitual cow's milk intake by a matching volume or 300 ml of YCF may lead to nutritional intakes more in line with recommendations in young children. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Intangible costs of alcohol dependence from the perspective of patients and their relatives: A contingent valuation study.

PubMed

Mosquera Nogueira, Jacinto; Rodríguez-Míguez, Eva

2018-04-15

Alcohol dependence causes multiple problems not only for the person suffering dependence but also for others. In this study, the contingent valuation method is proposed to measure the intangible effects of alcohol dependence from the perspective of the persons directly involved: the patients and their relatives. Interviews were conducted with 145 patients and 61 relatives. Intangible effects of alcohol dependence were determined based on willingness to pay for a hypothetical treatment for dependence, with different success scenarios (100% and 50%). The mean monthly willingness to pay among the alcohol-dependent population was €129 and €168, respectively, for the treatments with 100% and 50% success. The willingness to pay of relatives was greater in both scenarios (€307 and €420, respectively), which could be explained by their greater perception of the family, labour, and health problems resulting from alcohol dependence. Regression analysis showed that patients' willingness to pay is positively related to treatment efficacy, personal income and moderate health deterioration, and negatively related to feeling discouraged and depressed. The results from this study can be applied to economic valuation studies that aim to measure the benefits of programs intended to reduce the prevalence of alcohol dependence. The intangible costs estimated can be added to the direct and indirect costs commonly used.

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2018-03-01

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

A strategic planning approach for operational-environmental tradeoff assessments in terminal areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez, Hernando

This thesis proposes the use of well established statistical analysis techniques, leveraging on recent developments in interactive data visualization capabilities, to quantitatively characterize the interactions, sensitivities, and tradeoffs prevalent in the complex behavior of airport operational and environmental performance. Within the strategic airport planning process, this approach is used in the assessment of airport performance under current/reference conditions, as well as in the evaluation of terminal area solutions under projected demand conditions. More specifically, customized designs of experiments are utilized to guide the intelligent selection and definition of modeling and simulation runs that will yield greater understanding, insight, and information about the inherent systemic complexity of a terminal area, with minimal computational expense. For the research documented in this thesis, a modeling and simulation environment was created featuring three primary components. First, a generator of schedules of operations, based primarily on previous work on aviation demand characterization, whereby growth factors and scheduling adjustment algorithms are applied on appropriate baseline schedules so as to generate notional operational sets representative of consistent future demand conditions. The second component pertains to the modeling and simulation of aircraft operations, defined by a schedule of operations, on the airport surface and within its terminal airspace. This component is a discrete event simulator for multiple queuing models that captures the operational architecture of the entire terminal area along with all the necessary operational logic pertaining to simulated Air Traffic Control (ATC) functions, rules, and standard practices. The third and final component is comprised of legacy aircraft performance, emissions and dispersion, and noise exposure modeling tools, that use the simulation history of aircraft movements to generate estimates of fuel burn, emissions, and noise. The implementation of the proposed approach for the assessment of terminal area solutions incorporates the use of discrete response surface equations, and eliminates the use of quadratic terms that have no practical significance in this context. Rather, attention is entire placed on the main effects of different terminal area solutions, namely additional airport infrastructure, operational improvements, and advanced aircraft concepts, modeled as discrete independent variables for the regression model. Results reveal that an additional runway and a new international terminal, as well as reduced aircraft separation, have a major effect on all operational metrics of interest. In particular, the additional runway has a dominant effect for departure delay metrics and gate hold periods, with moderate interactions with respect to separation reduction. On the other hand, operational metrics for arrivals are co-dependent on additional infrastructure and separation reduction, featuring marginal improvements whenever these two solutions are implemented in isolation, but featuring a dramatic compounding effect when implemented in combination. The magnitude of these main effects for departures and of the interaction between these solutions for arrivals is confirmed through appropriate statistical significance testing. Finally, the inclusion o advanced aircraft concepts is shown to be most beneficial for airborne arrival operations and to a lesser extent for arrival ground movements. More specifically, advanced aircraft concepts were found to be primarily responsible for reductions in volatile organic compounds, unburned hydrocarbons, and particulate matter in this flight regime, but featured relevant interactions with separation reduction and additional airport infrastructure. To address the selection of scenarios for strategic airport planning, a technique for risk-based scenario construction, evaluation, and selection is proposed, incorporating n-dimensional dependence tree probability approximations into a morphological analysis approach. This approach to scenario construction and downselection is a distinct and novel contribution to the scenario planning field as it provides a mathematically and explicitly testable definition for an H parameter, contrasting with the qualitative alternatives in the current state of the art, which can be used in morphological analysis for scenario construction and downselection. By demonstrating that dependence tree probability product approximations are an adequate aggregation function, probability can be used for scenario construction and downselection without any mathematical or methodological restriction on the resolution of the probability scale or the number of morphological alternatives that have previously plagued probabilization and scenario downselection approaches. In addition, this approach requires expert input elicitation that is comparable or less than the current state of the art practices. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Education the Way Ahead? An Evaluation of a Pilot Course on Scenario Writing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Viebahn, Peter; Hilton, Gillian

2006-01-01

Scenario writing is a method to promote creative thinking and a proactive approach to dealing with the future. ATEE's Research and Development Centre "Curricula in Teacher Education" has adapted this method for use in teacher education. A Comenius funded course on Scenario writing was run over five days with teachers, teacher--educators,…

Risk evaluation on leading companies in property and real estate subsector at IDX: A Value-at-Risk with ARMAX-GARCHX approach and duration test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwi Prastyo, Dedy; Handayani, Dwi; Fam, Soo-Fen; Puteri Rahayu, Santi; Suhartono; Luh Putu Satyaning Pradnya Paramita, Ni

2018-03-01

Risk assessment and evaluation becomes essential for financial institution to measure the potential risk of their counterparties. In middle of 2016 until first quarter of 2017, there is national program from Indonesian government so-called Tax Amnesty. One subsector that has potential to receive positive impact from the Tax Amnesty program is property and real estate. This work evaluates the risk of top five companies in term of capital share listed in Indonesia stock exchange (IDX). To do this, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) with ARMAX-GARCHX approach is employed. The ARMAX-GARCHX simultaneously models the adaptive mean and variance of stock return of each company considering exogenous variables, i.e. IDR/USD exchange rate and Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). The risk is evaluated in scheme of time moving window. The risk evaluation using 5% quantile with window size 500 transaction days perform better result compare to other scenarios. In addition, duration test is used to test the dependency between shortfalls. It informs that series of shortfall are independent.

Toward zero waste: Composting and recycling for sustainable venue based events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hottle, Troy A., E-mail: troy.hottle@asu.edu; Bilec, Melissa M., E-mail: mbilec@pitt.edu; Brown, Nicholas R., E-mail: nick.brown@asu.edu

Highlights: • Venues have billions of customers per year contributing to waste generation. • Waste audits of four university baseball games were conducted to assess venue waste. • Seven scenarios including composting were modeled using EPA’s WARM. • Findings demonstrate tradeoffs between emissions, energy, and landfill avoidance. • Sustainability of handling depends on efficacy of collection and treatment impacts. - Abstract: This study evaluated seven different waste management strategies for venue-based events and characterized the impacts of event waste management via waste audits and the Waste Reduction Model (WARM). The seven waste management scenarios included traditional waste handling methods (e.g.more » recycle and landfill) and management of the waste stream via composting, including purchasing where only compostable food service items were used during the events. Waste audits were conducted at four Arizona State University (ASU) baseball games, including a three game series. The findings demonstrate a tradeoff among CO{sub 2} equivalent emissions, energy use, and landfill diversion rates. Of the seven waste management scenarios assessed, the recycling scenarios provide the greatest reductions in CO{sub 2} eq. emissions and energy use because of the retention of high value materials but are compounded by the difficulty in managing a two or three bin collection system. The compost only scenario achieves complete landfill diversion but does not perform as well with respect to CO{sub 2} eq. emissions or energy. The three game series was used to test the impact of staffed bins on contamination rates; the first game served as a baseline, the second game employed staffed bins, and the third game had non staffed bins to determine the effect of staffing on contamination rates. Contamination rates in both the recycling and compost bins were tracked throughout the series. Contamination rates were reduced from 34% in the first game to 11% on the second night (with the staffed bins) and 23% contamination rates at the third game.« less

Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Bayer, Anita D.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Humpenöder, Florian; Anthoni, Peter; Olin, Stefan; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Popp, Alexander; Stehfest, Elke; Arneth, Almut

2017-11-01

Land management for carbon storage is discussed as being indispensable for climate change mitigation because of its large potential to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and to avoid further emissions from deforestation. However, the acceptance and feasibility of land-based mitigation projects depends on potential side effects on other important ecosystem functions and their services. Here, we use projections of future land use and land cover for different land-based mitigation options from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) and evaluate their effects with a global dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). In the land-use models, carbon removal was achieved either via growth of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage, via avoided deforestation and afforestation, or via a combination of both. We compare these scenarios to a reference scenario without land-based mitigation and analyse the LPJ-GUESS simulations with the aim of assessing synergies and trade-offs across a range of ecosystem service indicators: carbon storage, surface albedo, evapotranspiration, water runoff, crop production, nitrogen loss, and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds. In our mitigation simulations cumulative carbon storage by year 2099 ranged between 55 and 89 GtC. Other ecosystem service indicators were influenced heterogeneously both positively and negatively, with large variability across regions and land-use scenarios. Avoided deforestation and afforestation led to an increase in evapotranspiration and enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, and to a decrease in albedo, runoff, and nitrogen loss. Crop production could also decrease in the afforestation scenarios as a result of reduced crop area, especially for MAgPIE land-use patterns, if assumed increases in crop yields cannot be realized. Bioenergy-based climate change mitigation was projected to affect less area globally than in the forest expansion scenarios, and resulted in less pronounced changes in most ecosystem service indicators than forest-based mitigation, but included a possible decrease in nitrogen loss, crop production, and biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions.

Electric Vehicle Charging and the California Power Sector: Evaluating the Effect of Location and Time on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohnen, Julia Meagher

This thesis explores the implications of the increased adoption of plug-in electric vehicles in California through its effect on the operation of the state's electric grid. The well-to-wheels emissions associated with driving an electric vehicle depend on the resource mix of the electricity grid used to charge the battery. We present a new least-cost dispatch model, EDGE-NET, for the California electricity grid consisting of interconnected sub-regions that encompass the six largest state utilities that can be used to evaluate the impact of growing electric vehicle demand on existing power grid infrastructure system and energy resources. This model considers spatiality and temporal dynamics of energy demand and supply when determining the regional impacts of additional charging profiles on the current electricity network. Model simulation runs for one year show generation and transmission congestion to be reasonable similar to historical data. Model simulation results show that average emissions and system costs associated with electricity generation vary significantly by time of day, season, and location. Marginal cost and emissions also exhibit seasonal and diurnal differences, but show less spatial variation. Sensitivity of demand analysis shows that the relative changes to average emissions and system costs respond asymmetrically to increases and decreases in electricity demand. These results depend on grid mix at the time and the marginal power plant type. In minimizing total system cost, the model will choose to dispatch the lowest-cost resource to meet additional vehicle demand, regardless of location, as long as transmission capacity is available. Location of electric vehicle charging has a small effect on the marginal greenhouse gas emissions associated with additional generation, due to electricity losses in the transmission grid. We use a geographically explicit, charging assessment model for California to develop and compare the effects of two charging profiles. Comparison of these two basic scenarios points to savings in greenhouse gas emissions savings and operational costs from delayed charging of electric vehicles. Vehicle charging simulations confirm that plug-in electric vehicles alone are unlikely to require additional generation or transmission infrastructure. EDGE-NET was successfully benchmarked against historical data for the present grid but additional work is required to expand the model for future scenario evaluation. We discuss how the model might be adapted for high penetrations of variable renewable energy resources, and the use of grid storage. Renewable resources such as wind and solar vary in California vary significantly by time-of-day, season, and location. However, combination of multiple resources from different geographic regions through transmission grid interconnection is expected to help mitigate the impacts of variability. EDGE-NET can evaluate interaction of supply and demand through the existing transmission infrastructure and can identify any critical network bottlenecks or areas for expansion. For this reason, EDGE-NET will be an important tool to evaluate energy policy scenarios.

Predicting impacts of future human population growth and development on occupancy rates of forest-dependent birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Michelle L.; Donovan, Therese; Schwenk, W. Scott; Theobald, David M.

2014-01-01

Forest loss and fragmentation are among the largest threats to forest-dwelling wildlife species today, and projected increases in human population growth are expected to increase these threats in the next century. We combined spatially-explicit growth models with wildlife distribution models to predict the effects of human development on 5 forest-dependent bird species in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts, USA. We used single-species occupancy models to derive the probability of occupancy for each species across the study area in the years 2000 and 2050. Over half a million new housing units were predicted to be added to the landscape. The maximum change in housing density was nearly 30 houses per hectare; however, 30% of the towns in the study area were projected to add less than 1 housing unit per hectare. In the face of predicted human growth, the overall occupancy of each species decreased by as much as 38% (ranging from 19% to 38% declines in the worst-case scenario) in the year 2050. These declines were greater outside of protected areas than within protected lands. Ninety-seven percent of towns experienced some decline in species occupancy within their borders, highlighting the value of spatially-explicit models. The mean decrease in occupancy probability within towns ranged from 3% for hairy woodpecker to 8% for ovenbird and hermit thrush. Reductions in occupancy probability occurred on the perimeters of cities and towns where exurban development is predicted to increase in the study area. This spatial approach to wildlife planning provides data to evaluate trade-offs between development scenarios and forest-dependent wildlife species.

Confrontation of the Magnetically Arrested Disc scenario with observations of FR II sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusinek, Katarzyna; Sikora, Marek

2017-10-01

The main aim of our work was to check whether powers of jets in FR II radio galaxies (RGs) and quasars (QSOs) can be reproduced by the Magnetically Arrested Disc (MAD) scenario. Assuming that established in the recent numerical simulations of the MAD scenario the (H/R)^2 dependence of the jet production efficiency is correct, we demonstrate that in order to reproduce the observed jet powers in FR II sources: (i) accretion discs must be geometrically much thicker than the standard ones; (ii) and/or that the jet production is strongly modulated.

Adaptive scenarios: a training model for today's public health workforce.

PubMed

Uden-Holman, Tanya; Bedet, Jennifer; Walkner, Laurie; Abd-Hamid, Nor Hashidah

2014-01-01

With the current economic climate, money for training is scarce. In addition, time is a major barrier to participation in trainings. To meet the public health workforce's rising demand for training, while struggling with less time and fewer resources, the Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center has developed a model of online training that provides the public health workforce with individually customized, needs-based training experiences. Adaptive scenarios are rooted in case-based reasoning, a learning approach that focuses on the specific knowledge needed to solve a problem. Proponents of case-based reasoning argue that learners benefit from being able to remember previous similar situations and reusing information and knowledge from that situation. Adaptive scenarios based on true-to-life job performance provide an opportunity to assess skills by presenting the user with choices to make in a problem-solving context. A team approach was used to develop the adaptive scenarios. Storylines were developed that incorporated situations aligning with the knowledge, skills, and attitudes outlined in the Public Health Preparedness and Response Core Competency Model. This article examines 2 adaptive scenarios: "Ready or Not? A Family Preparedness Scenario" and "Responding to a Crisis: Managing Emotions and Stress Scenario." The scenarios are available on Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center's Learning Management System, the Training Source (http://training-source.org). Evaluation data indicate that users' experiences have been positive. Integrating the assessment and training elements of the scenarios so that the training experience is uniquely adaptive to each user is one of the most efficient ways to provide training. The opportunity to provide individualized, needs-based training without having to administer separate assessments has the potential to save time and resources. These adaptive scenarios continue to be marketed to target audiences through partner organizations, various Web sites, electronic newsletters, and social media. Next steps include the implementation of a 6-month follow-up evaluation, using Kirkpatrick level III. Kirkpatrick level III evaluation measures whether there was actual transfer of learning to the work setting.

HAWQS (Hydrologic and Water Quality System)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A water quantity and quality modeling system to evaluate the impacts of management alternatives, pollution control scenarios, and climate change scenarios on the quantity and quality of water at a national scale.

Evaluation of new alternatives in wastewater treatment plants based on dynamic modelling and life cycle assessment (DM-LCA).

PubMed

Bisinella de Faria, A B; Spérandio, M; Ahmadi, A; Tiruta-Barna, L

2015-11-01

With a view to quantifying the energy and environmental advantages of Urine Source-Separation (USS) combined with different treatment processes, five wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) scenarios were compared to a reference scenario using Dynamic Modelling (DM) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and an integrated DM-LCA framework was thus developed. Dynamic simulations were carried out in BioWin(®) in order to obtain a realistic evaluation of the dynamic behaviour and performance of plants under perturbation. LCA calculations were performed within Umberto(®) using the Ecoinvent database. A Python™ interface was used to integrate and convert simulation data and to introduce them into Umberto(®) to achieve a complete LCA evaluation comprising foreground and background processes. Comparisons between steady-state and dynamic simulations revealed the importance of considering dynamic aspects such as nutrient and flow peaks. The results of the evaluation highlighted the potential of the USS scenario for nutrient recovery whereas the Enhanced Primary Clarification (EPC) scenario gave increased biogas production and also notably decreased aeration consumption, leading to a positive energy balance. Both USS and EPC scenarios also showed increased stability of plant operation, with smaller daily averages of total nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, USS and EPC results demonstrated that the coupled USS + EPC scenario and its combinations with agricultural spreading of N-rich effluent and nitritation/anaerobic deammonification could present an energy-positive balance with respectively 27% and 33% lower energy requirements and an increase in biogas production of 23%, compared to the reference scenario. The coupled scenarios also presented lesser environmental impacts (reduction of 31% and 39% in total endpoint impacts) along with effluent quality well within the specified limits. The marked environmental performance (reduction of global warming) when nitrogen is used in agriculture shows the importance of future research on sustainable solutions for nitrogen recovery. The contribution analysis of midpoint impacts also showed hotspots that it will be important to optimize further, such as plant infrastructure and direct N2O emissions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing Potential Implications of Climate Change for Long-Term Water Resources Planning in the Colorado River Basin, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munevar, A.; Butler, S.; Anderson, R.; Rippole, J.

2008-12-01

While much of the focus on climate change impacts to water resources in the western United States has been related to snow-dominated watersheds, lower elevation basins such as the Colorado River Basin in Texas are dependent on rainfall as the predominant form of precipitation and source of supply. Water management in these basins has evolved to adapt to extreme climatic and hydrologic variability, but the impact of climate change is potentially more acute due to rapid runoff response and subsequent greater soil moisture depletion during the dry seasons. The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) - San Antonio Water System (SAWS) Water Project is being studied to conserve water, develop conjunctive groundwater supplies, and capture excess and unused river flows to meet future water needs for two neighboring regions in Texas. Agricultural and other rural water needs would be met on a more reliable basis in the lower Colorado River Basin through water conservation, surface water development and limited groundwater production. Surface water would be transferred to the San Antonio area to meet municipal needs in quantities still being evaluated. Detailed studies are addressing environmental, agricultural, socioeconomic, and engineering aspects of the project. Key planning activities include evaluating instream flow criteria, water quality, bay freshwater inflow criteria, surface water availability and operating approaches, agricultural conservation measures, groundwater availability, and economics. Models used to estimate future water availability and environmental flow requirements have been developed largely based on historical observed hydrologic data. This is a common approach used by water planners as well as by many regulatory agencies for permit review. In view of the project's 80-yr planning horizon, contractual obligations, comments from the Science Review Panel, and increased public and regulatory awareness of climate change issues, the project team is exploring climate change projections and methods to assess potential impacts over the project's expected life. Following an initial qualitative risk assessment, quantitative climate scenarios were developed based on multiple coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations under a range of global emission scenarios. Projected temperature and precipitation changes were evaluated from 112 downscaled AOGCM projections. A Four scenarios were selected for detailed hydrologic evaluations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale model. A quantile mapping procedure was applied to map future climatological period change statistics onto the long-term natural climate variability in the observed record. Simulated changes in runoff, river flow, evaporation, and evapotranspiration are used to generate adjustments to historical hydrology for assessment of potential changes to surface water availability, river water quality, riverine habitat, and Bay health. Projected temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are used to estimate changes in agricultural demand. Sea level rise scenarios that include trends in Gulf Coast shelf subsidence are combined with changes in inflows to evaluate increased coastal erosion, upland migration of the estuary, and changes to the salinity regime. Results of the scenario-based analyses are being considered in the development of adaptive management strategies for future operations of the system and the proposed project.

Preliminary Comparison of Radioactive Waste Disposal Cost for Fusion and Fission Reactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seki, Yasushi; Aoki, Isao; Yamano, Naoki; Tabara, Takashi

1997-09-01

The environmental and economic impact of radioactive waste (radwaste) generated from fusion power reactors using five types of structural materials and a fission reactor has been evaluated and compared. Possible radwaste disposal scenario of fusion radwaste in Japan is considered. The exposure doses were evaluated for the skyshine of gamma-ray during the disposal operation, groundwater migration scenario during the institutional control period of 300 years and future site use scenario after the institutional period. The radwaste generated from a typical light water fission reactor was evaluated using the same methodology as for the fusion reactors. It is found that radwaste from the fusion reactors using F82H and SiC/SiC composites without impurities could be disposed by the shallow land disposal presently applied to the low level waste in Japan. The disposal cost of radwaste from five fusion power reactors and a typical light water reactor were roughly evaluated and compared.

Comparative assessment of passive surveillance in disease-free and endemic situation: Example of Brucella melitensis surveillance in Switzerland and in Bosnia and Herzegovina

PubMed Central

Hadorn, Daniela C; Haracic, Sabina Seric; Stärk, Katharina DC

2008-01-01

Background Globalization and subsequent growth in international trade in animals and animal products has increased the importance of international disease reporting. Efficient and reliable surveillance systems are needed in order to document the disease status of a population at a given time. In this context, passive surveillance plays an important role in early warning systems. However, it is not yet routinely integrated in the assessment of disease surveillance systems because different factors like the disease awareness (DA) of people reporting suspect cases influence the detection performance of passive surveillance. In this paper, we used scenario tree methodology in order to evaluate and compare the quality and benefit of abortion testing (ABT) for Brucella melitensis (Bm) between the disease free situation in Switzerland (CH) and a hypothetical disease free situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH), taking into account DA levels assumed for the current endemic situation in BH. Results The structure and input parameters of the scenario tree were identical for CH and BH with the exception of population data in small ruminants and the DA in farmers and veterinarians. The sensitivity analysis of the stochastic scenario tree model showed that the small ruminant population structure and the DA of farmers were important influential parameters with regard to the unit sensitivity of ABT in both CH and BH. The DA of both farmers and veterinarians was assumed to be higher in BH than in CH due to the current endemic situation in BH. Although the same DA cannot necessarily be assumed for the modelled hypothetical disease free situation as for the actual endemic situation, it shows the importance of the higher vigilance of people reporting suspect cases on the probability that an average unit processed in the ABT-component would test positive. Conclusion The actual sensitivity of passive surveillance approaches heavily depends on the context in which they are applied. Scenario tree modelling allows for the evaluation of such passive surveillance system components under assumed disease free situation. Despite data gaps, this is a real opportunity to compare different situations and to explore consequences of changes that could be made. PMID:19099610

Comparative assessment of passive surveillance in disease-free and endemic situation: example of Brucella melitensis surveillance in Switzerland and in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

PubMed

Hadorn, Daniela C; Haracic, Sabina Seric; Stärk, Katharina D C

2008-12-22

Globalization and subsequent growth in international trade in animals and animal products has increased the importance of international disease reporting. Efficient and reliable surveillance systems are needed in order to document the disease status of a population at a given time. In this context, passive surveillance plays an important role in early warning systems. However, it is not yet routinely integrated in the assessment of disease surveillance systems because different factors like the disease awareness (DA) of people reporting suspect cases influence the detection performance of passive surveillance. In this paper, we used scenario tree methodology in order to evaluate and compare the quality and benefit of abortion testing (ABT) for Brucella melitensis (Bm) between the disease free situation in Switzerland (CH) and a hypothetical disease free situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH), taking into account DA levels assumed for the current endemic situation in BH. The structure and input parameters of the scenario tree were identical for CH and BH with the exception of population data in small ruminants and the DA in farmers and veterinarians. The sensitivity analysis of the stochastic scenario tree model showed that the small ruminant population structure and the DA of farmers were important influential parameters with regard to the unit sensitivity of ABT in both CH and BH. The DA of both farmers and veterinarians was assumed to be higher in BH than in CH due to the current endemic situation in BH. Although the same DA cannot necessarily be assumed for the modelled hypothetical disease free situation as for the actual endemic situation, it shows the importance of the higher vigilance of people reporting suspect cases on the probability that an average unit processed in the ABT-component would test positive. The actual sensitivity of passive surveillance approaches heavily depends on the context in which they are applied. Scenario tree modelling allows for the evaluation of such passive surveillance system components under assumed disease free situation. Despite data gaps, this is a real opportunity to compare different situations and to explore consequences of changes that could be made.

Impacts of National Decarbonization Targets for Subnational Societal Priorities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, W.; Iyer, G.

2017-12-01

Carbon mitigation has well-recognized linkages with other environmental and socioeconomic priorities, such as air pollution, economic development, employment, etc. While climate change is a global issue, many other societal priorities are local concerns. Since local efforts form the pillars of achieving co-benefits and avoiding dis-benefits at the national level, it is critical to go beyond national-level analyses and focus on the synergies and tradeoffs at the subnational level. Here we use the United States as an example to evaluate the impacts of mid-century national-level deep decarbonization target for state-level societal priorities. Based on the Global Change Assessment Model with state-level details for the US (GCAM-USA), we design two mid-century scenarios: A Reference scenario that assumes the U.S. undertakes no additional climate mitigation policy, and a Deep Decarbonization Scenario that assumes the U.S. achieves the NDC goal through 2025 (26-28% reduction relative to 2005 levels) and then follows a straight-line trajectory to 80% reductions in economy-wide GHG emissions by 2050 relative to 2005. We then compare these two scenarios for a variety of metrics of carbon mitigation and other societal priorities in 2050. We highlight two findings. First, the synergies and tradeoffs of carbon mitigation with other societal goals at the subnational level can be quite different from the national level. For example, while deep decarbonization could improve national energy security by reducing the overall dependence on energy imports, it may exacerbate energy independence goals for some states by increasing inter-state electricity imports. Second, achieving national-level decarbonization target could result in unequal regional impacts across states. We find uneven geographic impacts for air pollution (more co-reductions occur in the eastern states), economic costs (energy prices increase more in the northeastern states) and employment (jobs increase in the western states where renewable capacity scales up, and decrease in the northeast due to reduced mining activities). Therefore, local decision makers may find decarbonization in line or contradicting with the most urgent local priority to address, highlighting the importance of evaluating the synergies and tradeoffs at the subnational level.

FTM-West Model Results for Selected Fuel Treatment Scenarios

Treesearch

Andrew D. Kramp; Peter J. Ince

2006-01-01

This paper evaluated potential forest product market impacts in the U.S. West of increases in the supply of wood from thinnings to reduce fire hazard. Evaluations are done using the Fuel Treatment Market-West model for a set of hypothetical fuel treatment scenarios, which include stand-density-index (SDI) and thin-from-below (TFB) treatment regimes at alternative...

Forecasts of county-level land uses under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

David N. Wear

2011-01-01

Accurately forecasting future forest conditions and the implications for ecosystem services depends on understanding land use dynamics. In support of the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, we forecast changes in land uses for the coterminous United States in response to three scenarios. Our land use models forecast urbanization in response to the...

Assessing the impact of managed aquifer recharge on seasonal low flows in a semi-arid alluvial river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronayne, M. J.; Roudebush, J. A.; Stednick, J. D.

2016-12-01

Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) is one strategy that can be used to augment seasonal low flows in alluvial rivers. Successful implementation requires an understanding of spatio-temporal groundwater-surface water exchange. In this study we conducted numerical groundwater modeling to analyze the performance of an existing MAR system in the South Platte River Valley in northeastern Colorado (USA). The engineered system involves a spatial reallocation of water during the winter months; alluvial groundwater is extracted near the river and pumped to upgradient recharge ponds, with the intent of producing a delayed hydraulic response that increases the riparian zone water table (and therefore streamflow) during summer months. Higher flows during the summer are required to improve riverine habitat for threatened species in the Platte River. Modeling scenarios were constrained by surface (streamflow gaging) and subsurface (well data) measurements throughout the study area. We compare two scenarios to analyze the impact of MAR: a natural base case scenario and an active management scenario that includes groundwater pumping and managed recharge. Steady-periodic solutions are used to evaluate the long-term stabilized behavior of the stream-aquifer system with and without pumping/recharge. Streamflow routing is included in the model, which permits quantification of the timing and location of streamflow accretion (increased streamflow associated with MAR). An analysis framework utilizing capture concepts is developed to interpret seasonal changes in head-dependent flows to/from the aquifer, including groundwater-surface water exchange that impacts streamflow. Results demonstrate that accretion occurs during the target low-flow period but is not limited to those months, highlighting an inefficiency that is a function of the aquifer geometry and hydraulic properties. The results of this study offer guidance for other flow augmentation projects that rely on water storage in shallow alluvial aquifers.

SUDOQU, a new dose-assessment methodology for radiological surface contamination.

PubMed

van Dillen, Teun; van Dijk, Arjan

2018-06-12

A new methodology has been developed for the assessment of the annual effective dose resulting from removable and fixed radiological surface contamination. It is entitled SUDOQU (SUrface DOse QUantification) and it can for instance be used to derive criteria for surface contamination related to the import of non-food consumer goods, containers and conveyances, e.g., limiting values and operational screening levels. SUDOQU imposes mass (activity)-balance equations based on radioactive decay, removal and deposition processes in indoor and outdoor environments. This leads to time-dependent contamination levels that may be of particular importance in exposure scenarios dealing with one or a few contaminated items only (usually public exposure scenarios, therefore referred to as the 'consumer' model). Exposure scenarios with a continuous flow of freshly contaminated goods also fall within the scope of the methodology (typically occupational exposure scenarios, thus referred to as the 'worker model'). In this paper we describe SUDOQU, its applications, and its current limitations. First, we delineate the contamination issue, present the assumptions and explain the concepts. We describe the relevant removal, transfer, and deposition processes, and derive equations for the time evolution of the radiological surface-, air- and skin-contamination levels. These are then input for the subsequent evaluation of the annual effective dose with possible contributions from external gamma radiation, inhalation, secondary ingestion (indirect, from hand to mouth), skin contamination, direct ingestion and skin-contact exposure. The limiting effective surface dose is introduced for issues involving the conservatism of dose calculations. SUDOQU can be used by radiation-protection scientists/experts and policy makers in the field of e.g. emergency preparedness, trade and transport, exemption and clearance, waste management, and nuclear facilities. Several practical examples are worked out demonstrating the potential applications of the methodology. . Creative Commons Attribution license.

Global cost analysis on adaptation to sea level rise based on RCP/SSP scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumano, N.; Tamura, M.; Yotsukuri, M.; Kuwahara, Y.; Yokoki, H.

2017-12-01

Low-lying areas are the most vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change in the future. In order to adapt to SLR, it is necessary to decide whether to retreat from vulnerable areas or to install dykes to protect them from inundation. Therefore, cost- analysis of adaptation using coastal dykes is one of the most essential issues in the context of climate change and its countermeasures. However, few studies have globally evaluated the future costs of adaptation in coastal areas. This study tries to globally analyze the cost of adaptation in coastal areas. First, global distributions of projected inundation impacts induced by SLR including astronomical high tide were assessed. Economic damage was estimated on the basis of the econometric relationship between past hydrological disasters, affected population, and per capita GDP using CRED's EM-DAT database. Second, the cost of adaptation was also determined using the cost database and future scenarios. The authors have built a cost database for installed coastal dykes worldwide and applied it to estimating the future cost of adaptation. The unit costs of dyke construction will increase with socio-economic scenario (SSP) such as per capita GDP. Length of vulnerable coastline is calculated by identifying inundation areas using ETOPO1. Future cost was obtained by multiplying the length of vulnerable coastline and the unit cost of dyke construction. Third, the effectiveness of dyke construction was estimated by comparing cases with and without adaptation.As a result, it was found that incremental adaptation cost is lower than economic damage in the cases of SSP1 and SSP3 under RCP scenario, while the cost of adaptation depends on the durability of the coastal dykes.

Use of impact fees to incentivize low-impact development and promote compact growth.

PubMed

Lu, Zhongming; Noonan, Douglas; Crittenden, John; Jeong, Hyunju; Wang, Dali

2013-10-01

Low-impact development (LID) is an innovative stormwater management strategy that restores the predevelopment hydrology to prevent increased stormwater runoff from land development. Integrating LID into residential subdivisions and increasing population density by building more compact living spaces (e.g., apartment homes) can result in a more sustainable city by reducing stormwater runoff, saving infrastructural cost, increasing the number of affordable homes, and supporting public transportation. We develop an agent-based model (ABM) that describes the interactions between several decision-makers (i.e., local government, a developer, and homebuyers) and fiscal drivers (e.g., property taxes, impact fees). The model simulates the development of nine square miles of greenfield land. A more sustainable development (MSD) scenario introduces an impact fee that developers must pay if they choose not to use LID to build houses or apartment homes. Model simulations show homeowners selecting apartment homes 60% or 35% of the time after 30 years of development in MSD or business as usual (BAU) scenarios, respectively. The increased adoption of apartment homes results from the lower cost of using LID and improved quality of life for apartment homes relative to single-family homes. The MSD scenario generates more tax revenue and water savings than does BAU. A time-dependent global sensitivity analysis quantifies the importance of socioeconomic variables on the adoption rate of apartment homes. The top influential factors are the annual pay rates (or capital recovery factor) for single-family houses and apartment homes. The ABM can be used by city managers and policymakers for scenario exploration in accordance with local conditions to evaluate the effectiveness of impact fees and other policies in promoting LID and compact growth.

Complex analyses on clinical information systems using restricted natural language querying to resolve time-event dependencies.

PubMed

Safari, Leila; Patrick, Jon D

2018-06-01

This paper reports on a generic framework to provide clinicians with the ability to conduct complex analyses on elaborate research topics using cascaded queries to resolve internal time-event dependencies in the research questions, as an extension to the proposed Clinical Data Analytics Language (CliniDAL). A cascaded query model is proposed to resolve internal time-event dependencies in the queries which can have up to five levels of criteria starting with a query to define subjects to be admitted into a study, followed by a query to define the time span of the experiment. Three more cascaded queries can be required to define control groups, control variables and output variables which all together simulate a real scientific experiment. According to the complexity of the research questions, the cascaded query model has the flexibility of merging some lower level queries for simple research questions or adding a nested query to each level to compose more complex queries. Three different scenarios (one of them contains two studies) are described and used for evaluation of the proposed solution. CliniDAL's complex analyses solution enables answering complex queries with time-event dependencies at most in a few hours which manually would take many days. An evaluation of results of the research studies based on the comparison between CliniDAL and SQL solutions reveals high usability and efficiency of CliniDAL's solution. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Linking interseismic deformation with coseismic slip using dynamic rupture simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H.; He, B.; Weng, H.

2017-12-01

The largest earthquakes on earth occur at subduction zones, sometimes accompanied by devastating tsunamis. Reducing losses from megathrust earthquakes and tsunami demands accurate estimate of rupture scenarios for future earthquakes. Interseismic locking distribution derived from geodetic observations is often used to qualitatively evaluate future earthquake potential. However, how to quantitatively estimate the coseismic slip from the locking distribution remains challenging. Here we derive the coseismic rupture process of the 2012 Mw 7.6 Nicoya, Costa Rica, earthquake from interseismic locking distribution using spontaneous rupture simulation. We construct a three-dimensional elastic medium with a curved fault, which is governed by the linear slip-weakening law. The initial stress on the fault is set based on the build-up stress inferred from locking and the dynamic friction coefficient from fast-speed sliding experiments. Our numerical results of coseismic slip distribution, moment rate function and final earthquake moment are well consistent with those derived from seismic and geodetic observations. Furthermore, we find that the epicentral locations affect rupture scenarios and may lead to various sizes of earthquakes given the heterogeneous stress distribution. In the Nicoya region, less than half of rupture initiation regions where the locking degree is greater than 0.6 can develop into large earthquakes (Mw > 7.2). The results of location-dependent earthquake magnitudes underscore the necessity of conducting a large number of simulations to quantitatively evaluate seismic hazard from the interseismic locking models.

Impact of methanol vehicles on ozone air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, T. Y.; Rudy, S. J.; Kuntasal, G.; Gorse, R. A.

A single-cell trajectory model with an updated chemical mechanism has been used to evaluate the impact on ozone air quality of methanol fueled vehicle (MFV) substitution for conventional fueled vehicles (CFV) in 20 urban areas in the U.S. Recent measurement data for non-methane organic compound (NMOC) concentrations and NMOC/NO x ratios for each of the areas was used. The sensitivity of peak 1-h O 3 values to variations in many of the input parameters has been tested. The functional dependence of peak 1-h O 3 on NMOC/NO x, ratios shows that, for many cities, the maximum O 3 levels occur near the median urban-center 6-9 a.m. NMOC/NO x ratios. The results of the photochemical model computations, including several methanol-fuel substitution scenarios, have been used to derive relative reactivities of methanol and formaldehyde. Per-vehicle O 3 reduction potentials for MFV have also been derived. The reduction potentials and calculated percentage O 3 reductions for selected MFV market-penetrations have been used to estimate the impact of any MFV market-penetration or change in MFV emission factors. All substitution scenarios evaluated lead to projections of lower peak 1-h O 3 levels. Even with significant replacement of CFV by MFV, the reduction of urban O 3 levels appears to be modest. However, the reductions may be significant in comparison to other available O 3-reduction options.

Evaluating the impact and risk of pluvial flash flood on intra-urban road network: A case study in the city center of Shanghai, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jie; Yu, Dapeng; Yin, Zhane; Liu, Min; He, Qing

2016-06-01

Urban pluvial flood are attracting growing public concern due to rising intense precipitation and increasing consequences. Accurate risk assessment is critical to an efficient urban pluvial flood management, particularly in transportation sector. This paper describes an integrated methodology, which initially makes use of high resolution 2D inundation modeling and flood depth-dependent measure to evaluate the potential impact and risk of pluvial flash flood on road network in the city center of Shanghai, China. Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationships of Shanghai rainstorm and Chicago Design Storm are combined to generate ensemble rainfall scenarios. A hydrodynamic model (FloodMap-HydroInundation2D) is used to simulate overland flow and flood inundation for each scenario. Furthermore, road impact and risk assessment are respectively conducted by a new proposed algorithm and proxy. Results suggest that the flood response is a function of spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation and local characteristics (i.e. drainage and topography), and pluvial flash flood is found to lead to proportionate but nonlinear impact on intra-urban road inundation risk. The approach tested here would provide more detailed flood information for smart management of urban street network and may be applied to other big cities where road flood risk is evolving in the context of climate change and urbanization.

Evaluating international development investments based on ecosystem services impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fremier, A. K.; Brauman, K. A.; Mulligan, M.; Chaplin-Kramer, R.; Gordon, L.; Luedeling, E.; Jones, S. K.; DeClerck, F.

2016-12-01

Engineered water-control structures to supply water for agriculture are frequently funded by international development to an effort to improve human wellbeing. Dams, reservoirs, and other forms of water control frequently have negative impacts on other water users; however, their sustainability in the face of climate change and evolving watershed processes have been called into question. Increasingly, planning for and evaluation of investments in water control require integration of these larger scale impacts and dependencies. Ecosystem service approaches can use local to regional scale knowledge to integrate a broader scope of project impacts by quantifying trade-offs in multiple services across proposed development interventions and future scenarios (economic, climate, demographic). Here, we illustrate the role an ecosystem service approach can play in investment decision making to evaluate the impact of small reservoirs on human wellbeing in the Upper Volta Basin of West Africa. Our project has four components: (1) design of a spatially explicit regional-level social-ecological characterization; (2) construction of future scenario analyses for rainfed and irrigated production system interventions; (3) co-design and co-development of benefit sharing mechanisms at the reservoir catchment level and enhancing institutional capacity to implement these mechanisms through training, professional development and targeting tools; and (4) intervention decision analysis to identify benefits, costs and risks associated with decision options. We illustrate how this approach highlights different outcomes than standard cost-benefit analysis focused narrowly on the single project. Anticipated outcomes are development of ecosystem services-based methods for more equitably and sustainably evaluating development interventions and identifying management approaches to water-impoundment structures that promote a range of ecosystem services to provide food security to a broader population.

Evaluate and characterize mechanisms controlling transport, fate, and effects of army smokes in the aerosol wind tunnel: Transport, transformations, fate, and terrestrial ecological effects of hexachloroethane obscurant smokes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cataldo, D.A.; Ligotke, M.W.; Bolton, H. Jr.

1989-09-01

The terrestrial transport, chemical fate, and ecological effects of hexachloroethane (HC) smoke were evaluated under controlled wind tunnel conditions. The primary objectives of this research program are to characterize and assess the impacts of smoke and obscurants on: (1) natural vegetation characteristic of US Army training sites in the United States; (2) physical and chemical properties of soils representative of these training sites; and (3) soil microbiological and invertebrate communities. Impacts and dose/responses were evaluated based on exposure scenarios, including exposure duration, exposure rate, and sequential cumulative dosing. Key to understanding the environmental impacts of HC smoke/obscurants is establishing themore » importance of environmental parameters such as relative humidity and wind speed on airborne aerosol characteristics and deposition to receptor surfaces. Direct and indirect biotic effects were evaluated using five plant species and two soil types. HC aerosols were generated in a controlled atmosphere wind tunnel by combustion of hexachloroethane mixtures prepared to simulate normal pot burn rates and conditions. The aerosol was characterized and used to expose plant, soil, and other test systems. Particle sizes of airborne HC ranged from 1.3 to 2.1 {mu}m mass median aerodynamic diameter (MMAD), and particle size was affected by relative humidity over a range of 20% to 85%. Air concentrations employed ranged from 130 to 680 mg/m{sup 3}, depending on exposure scenario. Chlorocarbon concentrations within smokes, deposition rates for plant and soil surfaces, and persistence were determined. The fate of principal inorganic species (Zn, Al, and Cl) in a range of soils was assessed.« less

Feasibility of visual aids for risk evaluation by hospitalized patients with coronary artery disease: results from face-to-face interviews.

PubMed

Magliano, Carlos Alberto da Silva; Monteiro, Andrea Liborio; Tura, Bernardo Rangel; Oliveira, Claudia Silvia Rocha; Rebelo, Amanda Rebeca de Oliveira; Pereira, Claudia Cristina de Aguiar

2018-01-01

Communicating information about risk and probability to patients is considered a difficult task. In this study, we aim to evaluate the use of visual aids representing perioperative mortality and long-term survival in the communication process for patients diagnosed with coronary artery disease at the National Institute of Cardiology, a Brazilian public hospital specializing in cardiology. One-on-one interviews were conducted between August 1 and November 20, 2017. Patients were asked to imagine that their doctor was seeking their input in the decision regarding which treatment represented the best option for them. Patients were required to choose between alternatives by considering only the different benefits and risks shown in each scenario, described as the proportion of patients who had died during the perioperative period and within 5 years. Each participant evaluated the same eight scenarios. We evaluated their answers in a qualitative and quantitative analysis. The main findings were that all patients verbally expressed concern about perioperative mortality and that 25% did not express concern about long-term mortality. Twelve percent considered the probabilities irrelevant on the grounds that their prognosis would depend on "God's will." Ten percent of the patients disregarded the reported likelihood of perioperative mortality, deciding to focus solely on the "chance of being cured." In the quantitative analysis, the vast majority of respondents chose the "correct" alternatives, meaning that they made consistent and rational choices. The use of visual aids to present risk attributes appeared feasible in our sample. The impact of heuristics and religious beliefs on shared health decision making needs to be explored better in future studies.

Non-coding glucometers among pediatric patients with diabetes: looking for the target population and an accuracy evaluation of no-coding personal glucometer.

PubMed

Fendler, Wojciech; Hogendorf, Anna; Szadkowska, Agnieszka; Młynarski, Wojciech

2011-01-01

Self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) is one of the cornerstones of diabetes management. To evaluate the potential for miscoding of a personal glucometer, to define a target population among pediatric patients with diabetes for a non-coding glucometer and the accuracy of the Contour TS non-coding system. Potential for miscoding during self-monitoring of blood glucose was evaluated by means of an anonymous questionnaire, with worst and best case scenarios evaluated depending on the responses pattern. Testing of the Contour TS system was performed according to guidelines set by the national committee for clinical laboratory standards. Estimated frequency of individuals prone to non-coding ranged from 68.21% (95% 60.70- 75.72%) to 7.95% (95%CI 3.86-12.31%) for the worse and best case scenarios respectively. Factors associated with increased likelihood of non-coding were: a smaller number of tests per day, a greater number of individuals involved in testing and self-testing by the patient with diabetes. The Contour TS device showed intra- and inter-assay accuracy -95%, linear association with laboratory measurements (R2=0.99, p <0.0001) and consistent, but small bias of -1.12% (95% Confidence Interval -3.27 to 1.02%). Clarke error grid analysis showed 4% of values within the benign error zone (B) with the other measurements yielding an acceptably accurate result (zone A). The Contour TS system showed sufficient accuracy to be safely used in monitoring of pediatric diabetic patients. Patients from families with a high throughput of test-strips or multiple individuals involved in SMBG using the same meter are candidates for clinical use of such devices due to an increased risk of calibration errors.

Anomalously slow relaxation of the system of liquid clusters in a disordered nanoporous medium according to the self-organized criticality scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borman, V. D.; Tronin, V. N.; Byrkin, V. A.

2016-04-01

We propose a physical model of a relaxation of states of clusters of nonwetting liquid confined in a random nanoporous medium. The relaxation is occurred by the self-organized criticality (SOC) scenario. Process is characterized by waiting for fluctuation necessary for overcoming of a local energy barrier with the subsequent avalanche hydrodynamic extrusion of the liquid by surface forces of the nonwetting frame. The dependence of the interaction between local configurations on the number of filled pores belonging to the infinite percolation cluster of filled pores serves as an internal feedback initiating the SOC process. The calculations give a power-law time dependence of the relative volume θ of the confined liquid θ ∼t-ν (ν ∼ 0.2) as in the picture of relaxation in the mean field approximation. The model of the relaxation of the porous medium with the nonwetting liquid demonstrates possible mechanisms and scenarios of SOC for relaxation of other disordered systems.

Accuracy and Completeness of Clinical Coding Using ICD-10 for Ambulatory Visits

PubMed Central

Horsky, Jan; Drucker, Elizabeth A.; Ramelson, Harley Z.

2017-01-01

This study describes a simulation of diagnostic coding using an EHR. Twenty-three ambulatory clinicians were asked to enter appropriate codes for six standardized scenarios with two different EHRs. Their interactions with the query interface were analyzed for patterns and variations in search strategies and the resulting sets of entered codes for accuracy and completeness. Just over a half of entered codes were appropriate for a given scenario and about a quarter were omitted. Crohn’s disease and diabetes scenarios had the highest rate of inappropriate coding and code variation. The omission rate was higher for secondary than for primary visit diagnoses. Codes for immunization, dialysis dependence and nicotine dependence were the most often omitted. We also found a high rate of variation in the search terms used to query the EHR for the same diagnoses. Changes to the training of clinicians and improved design of EHR query modules may lower the rate of inappropriate and omitted codes. PMID:29854158

Linear stability analysis of particle-laden hypopycnal plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farenzena, Bruno Avila; Silvestrini, Jorge Hugo

2017-12-01

Gravity-driven riverine outflows are responsible for carrying sediments to the coastal waters. The turbulent mixing in these flows is associated with shear and gravitational instabilities such as Kelvin-Helmholtz, Holmboe, and Rayleigh-Taylor. Results from temporal linear stability analysis of a two-layer stratified flow are presented, investigating the behavior of settling particles and mixing region thickness on the flow stability in the presence of ambient shear. The particles are considered suspended in the transport fluid, and its sedimentation is modeled with a constant valued settling velocity. Three scenarios, regarding the mixing region thickness, were identified: the poorly mixed environment, the strong mixed environment, and intermediate scenario. It was observed that Kelvin-Helmholtz and settling convection modes are the two fastest growing modes depending on the particles settling velocity and the total Richardson number. The second scenario presents a modified Rayleigh-Taylor instability, which is the dominant mode. The third case can have Kelvin-Helmholtz, settling convection, and modified Rayleigh-Taylor modes as the fastest growing mode depending on the combination of parameters.

Downscaled climate change impacts on agricultural water resources in Puerto Rico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harmsen, E.W.; Miller, N.L.; Schlegel, N.J.

2009-04-01

The purpose of this study is to estimate reference evapotranspiration (ET{sub o}), rainfall deficit (rainfall - ET{sub o}) and relative crop yield reduction for a generic crop under climate change conditions for three locations in Puerto Rico: Adjuntas, Mayaguez, and Lajas. Reference evapotranspiration is estimated by the Penman-Monteith method. Rainfall and temperature data were statistically downscaled and evaluated using the DOE/NCAR PCM global circulation model projections for the B1 (low), A2 (mid-high) and A1fi (high) emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Relative crop yield reductions were estimated from a function dependent watermore » stress factor, which is a function of soil moisture content. Average soil moisture content for the three locations was determined by means of a simple water balance approach. Results from the analysis indicate that the rainy season will become wetter and the dry season will become drier. The 20-year mean 1990-2010 September rainfall excess (i.e., rainfall - ET{sub o} > 0) increased for all scenarios and locations from 149.8 to 356.4 mm for 2080-2100. Similarly, the 20-year average February rainfall deficit (i.e., rainfall - ET{sub o} < 0) decreased from a -26.1 mm for 1990-2010 to -72.1 mm for the year 2080-2100. The results suggest that additional water could be saved during the wet months to offset increased irrigation requirements during the dry months. Relative crop yield reduction did not change significantly under the B1 projected emissions scenario, but increased by approximately 20% during the summer months under the A1fi emissions scenario. Components of the annual water balance for the three climate change scenarios are rainfall, evapotranspiration (adjusted for soil moisture), surface runoff, aquifer recharge and change in soil moisture storage. Under the A1fi scenario, for all locations, annual evapotranspiration decreased owing to lower soil moisture, surface runoff decreased, and aquifer recharge increased. Aquifer recharge increased at all three locations because the majority of recharge occurs during the wet season and the wet season became wetter. This is good news from a groundwater production standpoint. Increasing aquifer recharge also suggests that groundwater levels may increase and this may help to minimize saltwater intrusion near the coasts as sea levels increase, provided that groundwater use is not over-subscribed.« less

Effect of a simulation-based workshop on multidisplinary teamwork of newborn emergencies: an intervention study.

PubMed

Rovamo, Liisa; Nurmi, Elisa; Mattila, Minna-Maria; Suominen, Pertti; Silvennoinen, Minna

2015-11-12

Video analyses of real-life newborn resuscitations have shown that Neonatal Resuscitation Program (NRP) guidelines are followed in fewer than 50% of cases. Multidisciplinary simulation is used as a first-rate tool for the improvement of teamwork among health professionals. In the study we evaluated the impact of the crisis resource management (CRM) and anesthesia non-technical skills instruction on teamwork during simulated newborn emergencies. Ninety-nine participants of two delivery units (17 pediatricians, 16 anesthesiologists, 14 obstetricians, 31 midwives, and 21 neonatal nurses) were divided to an intervention group (I-group, 9 teams) and a control group (C-group, 6 teams). The I-group attended a CRM and ANTS instruction before the first scenario. After each scenario the I-group performed either self- or peer-assessment depending on whether they had acted or observed in the scenario. All the teams participated in two and observed another two scenarios. All the scenarios were video-recorded and scored by three experts with Team Emergency Assessment Measure (TEAM). SPSS software and nlme package were used for the statistical analyses. The total TEAM scores of the first scenario between the I- and C-group did not differ from each other. Neither there was an increase in the TEAM scoring between the first and second scenario between the groups. The CRM instruction did not improve the I-group's teamwork performance. Unfortunately the teams were not comparable because the teams had been allowed to self-select their members in the study design. The total TEAM scores varied a lot between the teams. Mixed-model linear regression revealed that the background of the team leader had an impact on differences of the total teamwork scores (D = 6.50, p = 0.039). When an anesthesia consultant was the team leader the mean teamwork improved by 6.41 points in comparison to specialists of other disciplines (p = 0.043). The instruction of non-technical skills before simulation training did not enhance the acquisition of teamwork skills of the intervention groups over the corresponding set of skills of the control groups. The teams led by an anesthesiologist scored the best. Experience of team leaders improved teamwork over the CRM instruction.

Effects of alternative outcome scenarios and structured outcome evaluation on case-based ethics instruction.

PubMed

Peacock, Juandre; Harkrider, Lauren N; Bagdasarov, Zhanna; Connelly, Shane; Johnson, James F; Thiel, Chase E; Macdougall, Alexandra E; Mumford, Michael D; Devenport, Lynn D

2013-09-01

Case-based instruction has been regarded by many as a viable alternative to traditional lecture-based education and training. However, little is known about how case-based training techniques impact training effectiveness. This study examined the effects of two such techniques: (a) presentation of alternative outcome scenarios to a case, and (b) conducting a structured outcome evaluation. Consistent with the hypotheses, results indicate that presentation of alternative outcome scenarios reduced knowledge acquisition, reduced sensemaking and ethical decision-making strategy use, and reduced decision ethicality. Conducting a structured outcome evaluation had no impact on these outcomes. Results indicate that those who use case-based instruction should take care to use clear, less complex cases with only a singular outcome if they are seeking these types of outcomes.

Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zazulie, Natalia; Rusticucci, Matilde; Raga, Graciela B.

2017-12-01

In Part I of our study (Zazulie et al. Clim Dyn, 2017, hereafter Z17) we analyzed the ability of a subset of fifteen high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 to reproduce the past climate of the Subtropical Central Andes (SCA) of Argentina and Chile. A subset of only five GCMs was shown to reproduce well the past climate (1980-2005), for austral summer and winter. In this study we analyze future climate projections for the twenty-first century over this complex orography region using those five GCMs. We evaluate the projections under two of the representative concentration pathways considered as future scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Future projections indicate warming during the twenty-first century over the SCA region, especially pronounced over the mountains. Projections of warming at high elevations in the SCA depend on altitude, and are larger than the projected global mean warming. This phenomenon is expected to strengthen by the end of the century under the high-emission scenario. Increases in winter temperatures of up to 2.5 °C, relative to 1980-2005, are projected by 2040-2065, while a 5 °C warming is expected at the highest elevations by 2075-2100. Such a large monthly-mean warming during winter would most likely result in snowpack melting by late winter-early spring, with serious implication for water availability during summer, when precipitation is a minimum over the mountains. We also explore changes in the albedo, as a contributing factor affecting the net flux of energy at the surface and found a reduction in albedo of 20-60% at high elevations, related to the elevation dependent warming. Furthermore, a decrease in winter precipitation is projected in central Chile by the end of the century, independent of the scenario considered.

Modeling Impacts of Alternative Practices on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from Rice–Wheat Annual Rotation in China

PubMed Central

Wang, Jinyang; Zhang, Xiaolin; Liu, Yinglie; Pan, Xiaojian; Liu, Pingli; Chen, Zhaozhi; Huang, Taiqing; Xiong, Zhengqin

2012-01-01

Background Evaluating the net exchange of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in conjunction with soil carbon sequestration may give a comprehensive insight on the role of agricultural production in global warming. Materials and Methods Measured data of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were utilized to test the applicability of the Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC) model to a winter wheat – single rice rotation system in southern China. Six alternative scenarios were simulated against the baseline scenario to evaluate their long-term (45-year) impacts on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI). Principal Results The simulated cumulative CH4 emissions fell within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, with the exception of N2O emissions during rice-growing season and both gases from the control treatment. Sensitivity tests showed that both CH4 and N2O emissions were significantly affected by changes in both environmental factors and management practices. Compared with the baseline scenario, the long-term simulation had the following results: (1) high straw return and manure amendment scenarios greatly increased CH4 emissions, while other scenarios had similar CH4 emissions, (2) high inorganic N fertilizer increased N2O emissions while manure amendment and reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenarios decreased N2O emissions, (3) the mean annual soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR) under manure amendment, high straw return, and no-tillage scenarios averaged 0.20 t C ha−1 yr−1, being greater than other scenarios, and (4) the reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario produced the least N loss from the system, while all the scenarios produced comparable grain yields. Conclusions In terms of net GWP and GHGI for the comprehensive assessment of climate change and crop production, reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario followed by no-tillage scenario would be advocated for this specified cropping system. PMID:23029173

Structural Crashworthiness Standards Comparison: Grade Crossing Collision Scenarios

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-20

In support of the Federal Railroad Administrations (FRA) : Railroad Equipment Safety Program, American and European : grade-crossing collision scenarios were evaluated and : compared. Finite element analyses (FEA) were employed to : subject an FRA...

The Emergence of Selective Attention through Probabilistic Associations between Stimuli and Actions.

PubMed

Simione, Luca; Nolfi, Stefano

2016-01-01

In this paper we show how a multilayer neural network trained to master a context-dependent task in which the action co-varies with a certain stimulus in a first context and with a second stimulus in an alternative context exhibits selective attention, i.e. filtering out of irrelevant information. This effect is rather robust and it is observed in several variations of the experiment in which the characteristics of the network as well as of the training procedure have been varied. Our result demonstrates how the filtering out of irrelevant information can originate spontaneously as a consequence of the regularities present in context-dependent training set and therefore does not necessarily depend on specific architectural constraints. The post-evaluation of the network in an instructed-delay experimental scenario shows how the behaviour of the network is consistent with the data collected in neuropsychological studies. The analysis of the network at the end of the training process indicates how selective attention originates as a result of the effects caused by relevant and irrelevant stimuli mediated by context-dependent and context-independent bidirectional associations between stimuli and actions that are extracted by the network during the learning.

Carbon stock projection in North Sumatera using multi objective land allocation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichwani, S. N.; Wulandari, R.; Ramachandra, A.

2018-05-01

Nowadays, GHG emission is a critical issue for environmental management due to the large scale of land cover change, especially forest cover. This study provides a protection development strategy for North Sumatera as one way to manage the area. By using Multi Objective Land Allocation (MOLA), we evaluated two GHG emission scenarios, including a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario and Protection scenario. The result shows that the province will lose the carbon stock up to 24 million tons in the year of 2035 by using a BAU scenario. On the other hand, by implementing the Protection scenario, total carbon stock that is lost in the same period is about 5 millions tons solely. It proves that protection scenario is a good scenario and effective to reduce the carbon loss. Furthermore, this scenario can be an alternative for North Sumatera spatial plan.

A Case-Based Scenario with Interdisciplinary Guided-Inquiry in Chemistry and Biology: Experiences of First Year Forensic Science Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cresswell, Sarah L.; Loughlin, Wendy A.

2017-01-01

In this paper, insight into forensic science students' experiences of a case-based scenario with an interdisciplinary guided-inquiry experience in chemistry and biology is presented. Evaluation of student experiences and interest showed that the students were engaged with all aspects of the case-based scenario, including the curriculum theory…

Forest carbon benefits, costs and leakage effects of carbon reserve scenarios in the United States

Treesearch

Prakash Nepal; Peter J. Ince; Kenneth E. Skog; Sun J. Chang

2013-01-01

This study evaluated the potential effectiveness of future carbon reserve scenarios, where U.S. forest landowners would hypothetically be paid to sequester carbon on their timberland and forego timber harvests for 100 years. Scenarios featured direct payments to landowners of $0 (baseline), $5, $10, or $15 per metric ton of additional forest carbon sequestered on the...

Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

2010-10-01

This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.

2015-08-01

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic withinmore » each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm –2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.« less

General quadrupolar statistical anisotropy: Planck limits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramazanov, S.; Rubtsov, G.; Thorsrud, M.

2017-03-01

Several early Universe scenarios predict a direction-dependent spectrum of primordial curvature perturbations. This translates into the violation of the statistical isotropy of cosmic microwave background radiation. Previous searches for statistical anisotropy mainly focussed on a quadrupolar direction-dependence characterised by a single multipole vector and an overall amplitude g {sub *}. Generically, however, the quadrupole has a more complicated geometry described by two multipole vectors and g {sub *}. This is the subject of the present work. In particular, we limit the amplitude g {sub *} for different shapes of the quadrupole by making use of Planck 2015 maps. We alsomore » constrain certain inflationary scenarios which predict this kind of more general quadrupolar statistical anisotropy.« less

An evaluation of methods for estimating the number of local optima in combinatorial optimization problems.

PubMed

Hernando, Leticia; Mendiburu, Alexander; Lozano, Jose A

2013-01-01

The solution of many combinatorial optimization problems is carried out by metaheuristics, which generally make use of local search algorithms. These algorithms use some kind of neighborhood structure over the search space. The performance of the algorithms strongly depends on the properties that the neighborhood imposes on the search space. One of these properties is the number of local optima. Given an instance of a combinatorial optimization problem and a neighborhood, the estimation of the number of local optima can help not only to measure the complexity of the instance, but also to choose the most convenient neighborhood to solve it. In this paper we review and evaluate several methods to estimate the number of local optima in combinatorial optimization problems. The methods reviewed not only come from the combinatorial optimization literature, but also from the statistical literature. A thorough evaluation in synthetic as well as real problems is given. We conclude by providing recommendations of methods for several scenarios.

Greenhouse gas scenario sensitivity and uncertainties in precipitation projections for central Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Uytven, E.; Willems, P.

2018-03-01

Climate change impact assessment on meteorological variables involves large uncertainties as a result of incomplete knowledge on the future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate model physics, next to the inherent internal variability of the climate system. Given that the alteration in greenhouse gas concentrations is the driver for the change, one expects the impacts to be highly dependent on the considered greenhouse gas scenario (GHS). In this study, we denote this behavior as GHS sensitivity. Due to the climate model related uncertainties, this sensitivity is, at local scale, not always that strong as expected. This paper aims to study the GHS sensitivity and its contributing role to climate scenarios for a case study in Belgium. An ensemble of 160 CMIP5 climate model runs is considered and climate change signals are studied for precipitation accumulation, daily precipitation intensities and wet day frequencies. This was done for the different seasons of the year and the scenario periods 2011-2040, 2031-2060, 2051-2081 and 2071-2100. By means of variance decomposition, the total variance in the climate change signals was separated in the contribution of the differences in GHSs and the other model-related uncertainty sources. These contributions were found dependent on the variable and season. Following the time of emergence concept, the GHS uncertainty contribution is found dependent on the time horizon and increases over time. For the most distinct time horizon (2071-2100), the climate model uncertainty accounts for the largest uncertainty contribution. The GHS differences explain up to 18% of the total variance in the climate change signals. The results point further at the importance of the climate model ensemble design, specifically the ensemble size and the combination of climate models, whereupon climate scenarios are based. The numerical noise, introduced at scales smaller than the skillful scale, e.g. at local scale, was not considered in this study.

Evaluation of Highly Realistic Training for Independent Duty Corpsmen Students

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-21

training. Comparisons of pretest and posttest survey responses revealed that the training produced significant increases in participants’ levels of...different scenarios in groups of 4–6 students at a time. After each training scenario, instructors debriefed the students, giving them feedback on ...them. Procedures To evaluate the impact of the training, corpsmen participants were asked to complete pretest and posttest surveys. Pretests were

Exposure of the general public due to wireless LAN applications in public places.

PubMed

Schmid, G; Preiner, P; Lager, D; Uberbacher, R; Georg, R

2007-01-01

The typical exposure caused by wireless LAN applications in public areas has been investigated in a variety of scenarios. Small-sized (internet café) and large-scale (airport) indoor scenarios as well as outdoor scenarios in the environment of access points (AP) supplying for residential areas and public places were considered. The exposure assessment was carried out by numerical GTD/UTD computations based on optical wave propagation, as well as by verifying frequency selective measurements in the considered scenarios under real life conditions. In the small-sized indoor scenario the maximum temporal peak values of power density, spatially averaged over body dimensions, were found to be lower than 20 mW/m(2), corresponding to 0.2% of the reference level according to the European Council Recommendation 1999/519/EC. Local peak values of power density might be 1-2 orders of magnitude higher, spatial and time-averaged values for usual data traffic conditions might be 2-3 orders of magnitude lower, depending on the actual data traffic. In the considered outdoor scenarios, exposure was several orders of magnitude lower than in indoor scenarios due to the usually larger distances to the AP antennas.

Novel hybrid linear stochastic with non-linear extreme learning machine methods for forecasting monthly rainfall a tropical climate.

PubMed

Zeynoddin, Mohammad; Bonakdari, Hossein; Azari, Arash; Ebtehaj, Isa; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Riahi Madavar, Hossein

2018-09-15

A novel hybrid approach is presented that can more accurately predict monthly rainfall in a tropical climate by integrating a linear stochastic model with a powerful non-linear extreme learning machine method. This new hybrid method was then evaluated by considering four general scenarios. In the first scenario, the modeling process is initiated without preprocessing input data as a base case. While in other three scenarios, the one-step and two-step procedures are utilized to make the model predictions more precise. The mentioned scenarios are based on a combination of stationarization techniques (i.e., differencing, seasonal and non-seasonal standardization and spectral analysis), and normality transforms (i.e., Box-Cox, John and Draper, Yeo and Johnson, Johnson, Box-Cox-Mod, log, log standard, and Manly). In scenario 2, which is a one-step scenario, the stationarization methods are employed as preprocessing approaches. In scenario 3 and 4, different combinations of normality transform, and stationarization methods are considered as preprocessing techniques. In total, 61 sub-scenarios are evaluated resulting 11013 models (10785 linear methods, 4 nonlinear models, and 224 hybrid models are evaluated). The uncertainty of the linear, nonlinear and hybrid models are examined by Monte Carlo technique. The best preprocessing technique is the utilization of Johnson normality transform and seasonal standardization (respectively) (R 2  = 0.99; RMSE = 0.6; MAE = 0.38; RMSRE = 0.1, MARE = 0.06, UI = 0.03 &UII = 0.05). The results of uncertainty analysis indicated the good performance of proposed technique (d-factor = 0.27; 95PPU = 83.57). Moreover, the results of the proposed methodology in this study were compared with an evolutionary hybrid of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with firefly algorithm (ANFIS-FFA) demonstrating that the new hybrid methods outperformed ANFIS-FFA method. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of community pharmacists' preparedness for the provision of cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management services: A study with simulated patients in Qatar.

PubMed

Zolezzi, Monica; Abdallah, Oraib; Kheir, Nadir; Abdelsalam, Abdelsalam Gomaa

2018-04-28

Individuals who suffer from major cardiovascular events every year have one or more risk factors. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment is an important strategy for the early identification of modifiable risk factors and their management. There is substantial evidence that shifting the focus from treatment to primary prevention reduces the burden of CVD. To evaluate the preparedness of community pharmacists in Qatar for the provision of CVD risk assessment and management services; and to explore the pharmacists' views on the provision of these services. A cross-sectional study using simulated-client methodology. Using standardized scenarios, community pharmacists were approached for consultation on two medicines (Aspirin ® and Crestor ® ) used for managing specific CVD risk factors. Pharmacists' competency to assess CVD risk was the primary outcome evaluated. Scores for each outcome were obtained based on the number of predefined statements addressed during the consultation. The mean cumulative score for all the competency outcomes assessed was 11.7 (SD 3.7) out of a possible score of 31. There were no differences for the majority of the competencies tested between the two scenarios used. Significantly more pharmacists exposed to the Aspirin ® scenario than to the Crestor ® scenario addressed hypertension as one of the risk factors needed to assess CVD risk (22% versus 11%, p = 0.03); whereas significantly more pharmacists in the Crestor ® scenario compared to the Aspirin ® scenario, addressed dyslipidemia as one of the risk factors needed to assess CVD risk (30% versus 7%, p = 0.02). Significantly more pharmacists exposed to the Aspirin ® scenario provided explanation about CVD risk than those exposed to the Crestor ® scenario 36% versus 8%, p < 0.01). The results suggest that many community pharmacists in Qatar are not displaying competencies that are necessary for the provision of CVD prevention services. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative evaluation of transmembrane ion transport due to monopolar and bipolar nanosecond, high-intensity electroporation pulses based on full three-dimensional analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Q.; Joshi, R. P.

2017-07-01

Electric pulse driven membrane poration finds applications in the fields of biomedical engineering and drug/gene delivery. Here we focus on nanosecond, high-intensity electroporation and probe the role of pulse shape (e.g., monopolar-vs-bipolar), multiple electrode scenarios, and serial-versus-simultaneous pulsing, based on a three-dimensional time-dependent continuum model in a systematic fashion. Our results indicate that monopolar pulsing always leads to higher and stronger cellular uptake. This prediction is in agreement with experimental reports and observations. It is also demonstrated that multi-pronged electrode configurations influence and increase the degree of cellular uptake.

A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

2015-07-14

Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in turn, how these changes affect Moapa dace abundance. Such tools are critical for devising management strategies to achieve recovery goals.

No-reference image quality assessment for horizontal-path imaging scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rios, Carlos; Gladysz, Szymon

2013-05-01

There exist several image-enhancement algorithms and tasks associated with imaging through turbulence that depend on defining the quality of an image. Examples include: "lucky imaging", choosing the width of the inverse filter for image reconstruction, or stopping iterative deconvolution. We collected a number of image quality metrics found in the literature. Particularly interesting are the blind, "no-reference" metrics. We discuss ways of evaluating the usefulness of these metrics, even when a fully objective comparison is impossible because of the lack of a reference image. Metrics are tested on simulated and real data. Field data comes from experiments performed by the NATO SET 165 research group over a 7 km distance in Dayton, Ohio.

Workplace air measurements and likelihood of exposure to manufactured nano-objects, agglomerates, and aggregates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brouwer, Derk H.; van Duuren-Stuurman, Birgit; Berges, Markus; Bard, Delphine; Jankowska, Elzbieta; Moehlmann, Carsten; Pelzer, Johannes; Mark, Dave

2013-11-01

Manufactured nano-objects, agglomerates, and aggregates (NOAA) may have adverse effect on human health, but little is known about occupational risks since actual estimates of exposure are lacking. In a large-scale workplace air-monitoring campaign, 19 enterprises were visited and 120 potential exposure scenarios were measured. A multi-metric exposure assessment approach was followed and a decision logic was developed to afford analysis of all results in concert. The overall evaluation was classified by categories of likelihood of exposure. At task level about 53 % showed increased particle number or surface area concentration compared to "background" level, whereas 72 % of the TEM samples revealed an indication that NOAA were present in the workplace. For 54 out of the 120 task-based exposure scenarios, an overall evaluation could be made based on all parameters of the decision logic. For only 1 exposure scenario (approximately 2 %), the highest level of potential likelihood was assigned, whereas in total in 56 % of the exposure scenarios the overall evaluation revealed the lowest level of likelihood. However, for the remaining 42 % exposure to NOAA could not be excluded.

Emissions Associated with Electric Vehicle Charging: Impact of Electricity Generation Mix, Charging Infrastructure Availability, and Vehicle Type

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McLaren, Joyce; Miller, John; O'Shaughnessy, Eric

With the aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with the transportation sector, policy-makers are supporting a multitude of measures to increase electric vehicle adoption. The actual level of emission reduction associated with the electrification of the transport sector is dependent on the contexts that determine when and where drivers charge electric vehicles. This analysis contributes to our understanding of the degree to which a particular electricity grid profile, vehicle type, and charging patterns impact CO2 emissions from light-duty, plug-in electric vehicles. We present an analysis of emissions resulting from both battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles for fourmore » charging scenarios and five electricity grid profiles. A scenario that allows drivers to charge electric vehicles at the workplace yields the lowest level of emissions for the majority of electricity grid profiles. However, vehicle emissions are shown to be highly dependent on the percentage of fossil fuels in the grid mix, with different vehicle types and charging scenarios resulting in fewer emissions when the carbon intensity of the grid is above a defined level. Restricting charging to off-peak hours results in higher total emissions for all vehicle types, as compared to other charging scenarios.« less

Importance of the Pre-Industrial Baseline in Determining the Likelihood of Exceeding the Paris Limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, M. E.; Schurer, A. P.; Hawkins, E.; Tett, S. F.; Hegerl, G. C.

2017-12-01

During the Paris Conference in 2015, nations of the world strengthened the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change by agreeing to holding "the increase in the globalaverage temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limitthe temperature increase to 1.5°C. However, "pre-industrial" was not defined. Here weinvestigate the implications of different choices of the pre-industrial baseline on the likelihood ofexceeding these two temperature thresholds. We find that for the strongest mitigation scenarioRCP2.6 and a medium scenario RCP4.5 the probability of exceeding the thresholds and timingof exceedance is highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline, for example the probability ofcrossing 1.5°C by the end of the century under RCP2.6, varies from 61% to 88% depending onhow the baseline is defined. In contrast, in the scenario with no mitigation, RCP8.5, boththresholds will almost certainly be exceeded by the middle of the century with the definition ofthe pre-industrial baseline of less importance. Allowable carbon emissions for thresholdstabilisation are similarly highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline. For stabilisation at2°C, allowable emissions decrease by as much as 40% when earlier than 19th century climatesare considered as a baseline.

Channel Measurement and Modeling for 5G Urban Microcellular Scenarios.

PubMed

Peter, Michael; Weiler, Richard J; Göktepe, Barış; Keusgen, Wilhelm; Sakaguchi, Kei

2016-08-20

In order to support the development of channel models for higher frequency bands, multiple urban microcellular measurement campaigns have been carried out in Berlin, Germany, at 60 and 10 GHz. In this paper, the collected data is uniformly analyzed with focus on the path loss (PL) and the delay spread (DS). It reveals that the ground reflection has a dominant impact on the fading behavior. For line-of-sight conditions, the PL exponents are close to free space propagation at 60 GHz, but slightly smaller (1.62) for the street canyon at 10 GHz. The DS shows a clear dependence on the scenario (median values between 16 and 38 ns) and a strong distance dependence for the open square and the wide street canyon. The dependence is less distinct for the narrow street canyon with residential buildings. This behavior is consistent with complementary ray tracing simulations, though the simplified model tends to overestimate the DS.

Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers - a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Renau-Pruñonosa, Arianna; Llopis-Albert, Carlos; Morell, Ignacio; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Senent-Aparicio, Javier; Baena-Ruiz, Leticia

2018-05-01

Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater-salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC) and land use and land cover (LULC) change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC) scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75 km2 in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it), and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes) and sea level rise (SLR). The proposed analysis is valuable for improving our knowledge about the aquifer, and so comprises a tool to design sustainable adaptation management strategies taking into account the uncertainty in future GC conditions and their impacts. The results show that GC scenarios produce significant increases in the variability of flow budget components and in the salinity.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufresne, J.-L.; Foujols, M.-A.; Denvil, S.; Caubel, A.; Marti, O.; Aumont, O.; Balkanski, Y.; Bekki, S.; Bellenger, H.; Benshila, R.; Bony, S.; Bopp, L.; Braconnot, P.; Brockmann, P.; Cadule, P.; Cheruy, F.; Codron, F.; Cozic, A.; Cugnet, D.; de Noblet, N.; Duvel, J.-P.; Ethé, C.; Fairhead, L.; Fichefet, T.; Flavoni, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Grandpeix, J.-Y.; Guez, L.; Guilyardi, E.; Hauglustaine, D.; Hourdin, F.; Idelkadi, A.; Ghattas, J.; Joussaume, S.; Kageyama, M.; Krinner, G.; Labetoulle, S.; Lahellec, A.; Lefebvre, M.-P.; Lefevre, F.; Levy, C.; Li, Z. X.; Lloyd, J.; Lott, F.; Madec, G.; Mancip, M.; Marchand, M.; Masson, S.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Mignot, J.; Musat, I.; Parouty, S.; Polcher, J.; Rio, C.; Schulz, M.; Swingedouw, D.; Szopa, S.; Talandier, C.; Terray, P.; Viovy, N.; Vuichard, N.

2013-05-01

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Impact of study design on development and evaluation of an activity-type classifier.

PubMed

van Hees, Vincent T; Golubic, Rajna; Ekelund, Ulf; Brage, Søren

2013-04-01

Methods to classify activity types are often evaluated with an experimental protocol involving prescribed physical activities under confined (laboratory) conditions, which may not reflect real-life conditions. The present study aims to evaluate how study design may impact on classifier performance in real life. Twenty-eight healthy participants (21-53 yr) were asked to wear nine triaxial accelerometers while performing 58 activity types selected to simulate activities in real life. For each sensor location, logistic classifiers were trained in subsets of up to 8 activities to distinguish between walking and nonwalking activities and were then evaluated in all 58 activities. Different weighting factors were used to convert the resulting confusion matrices into an estimation of the confusion matrix as would apply in the real-life setting by creating four different real-life scenarios, as well as one traditional laboratory scenario. The sensitivity of a classifier estimated with a traditional laboratory protocol is within the range of estimates derived from real-life scenarios for any body location. The specificity, however, was systematically overestimated by the traditional laboratory scenario. Walking time was systematically overestimated, except for lower back sensor data (range: 7-757%). In conclusion, classifier performance under confined conditions may not accurately reflect classifier performance in real life. Future studies that aim to evaluate activity classification methods are warranted to pay special attention to the representativeness of experimental conditions for real-life conditions.

DEEP-SaM - Energy-Efficient Provisioning Policies for Computing Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodenstein, Christian; Püschel, Tim; Hedwig, Markus; Neumann, Dirk

The cost of electricity for datacenters is a substantial operational cost that can and should be managed, not only for saving energy, but also due to the ecologic commitment inherent to power consumption. Often, pursuing this goal results in chronic underutilization of resources, a luxury most resource providers do not have in light of their corporate commitments. This work proposes, formalizes and numerically evaluates DEEP-Sam, for clearing provisioning markets, based on the maximization of welfare, subject to utility-level dependant energy costs and customer satisfaction levels. We focus specifically on linear power models, and the implications of the inherent fixed costs related to energy consumption of modern datacenters and cloud environments. We rigorously test the model by running multiple simulation scenarios and evaluate the results critically. We conclude with positive results and implications for long-term sustainable management of modern datacenters.

A robust approach to optimal matched filter design in ultrasonic non-destructive evaluation (NDE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Minghui; Hayward, Gordon

2017-02-01

The matched filter was demonstrated to be a powerful yet efficient technique to enhance defect detection and imaging in ultrasonic non-destructive evaluation (NDE) of coarse grain materials, provided that the filter was properly designed and optimized. In the literature, in order to accurately approximate the defect echoes, the design utilized the real excitation signals, which made it time consuming and less straightforward to implement in practice. In this paper, we present a more robust and flexible approach to optimal matched filter design using the simulated excitation signals, and the control parameters are chosen and optimized based on the real scenario of array transducer, transmitter-receiver system response, and the test sample, as a result, the filter response is optimized and depends on the material characteristics. Experiments on industrial samples are conducted and the results confirm the great benefits of the method.

Simulation and evaluation of pollution load reduction scenarios for water environmental management: a case study of inflow river of Taihu Lake, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

2014-09-09

In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of "Treatment after Pollution" has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives.

Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

2014-01-01

In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

Rethinking impact evaluation and carbon reduction analysis on electric bus vehicles in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhenyu; Li, Chao; Liao, Kai; Yin, Zhifang

2018-02-01

New energy bus vehicles (NEBVs) are expanding in China, but they have some problems such as technology, high cost and safety etc., thus NEBVs should be comprehensively evaluated from costs, technologies, environment, and based on the evaluation results, some changes should be improved. This paper firstly analyses the current status of both vehicle development and existing policies, identifies the main characteristics and the main problems in term of the economic, standard, policy, etc., by scenario analysis, forecasts the future growth from now to 2030 and calculates the emission reduction in low level scenario and high level scenario. In 2020 and 2030, 6 million and 24 million ton of CO2 emission will be reduced respectively. Finally, the paper makes a conclusion of Chinese experiences and gives some measures for the future development.

A learning-based autonomous driver: emulate human driver's intelligence in low-speed car following

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Junqing; Dolan, John M.; Litkouhi, Bakhtiar

2010-04-01

In this paper, an offline learning mechanism based on the genetic algorithm is proposed for autonomous vehicles to emulate human driver behaviors. The autonomous driving ability is implemented based on a Prediction- and Cost function-Based algorithm (PCB). PCB is designed to emulate a human driver's decision process, which is modeled as traffic scenario prediction and evaluation. This paper focuses on using a learning algorithm to optimize PCB with very limited training data, so that PCB can have the ability to predict and evaluate traffic scenarios similarly to human drivers. 80 seconds of human driving data was collected in low-speed (< 30miles/h) car-following scenarios. In the low-speed car-following tests, PCB was able to perform more human-like carfollowing after learning. A more general 120 kilometer-long simulation showed that PCB performs robustly even in scenarios that are not part of the training set.

Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, Michael; Steckel, Jan Christoph

2016-10-01

Evaluating the trade-offs between the risks related to climate change, climate change mitigation as well as co-benefits requires an integrated scenarios approach to sustainable development. We outline a conceptual multi-objective framework to assess climate policies that takes into account climate impacts, mitigation costs, water and food availability, technological risks of nuclear energy and carbon capture and sequestration as well as co-benefits of reducing local air pollution and increasing energy security. This framework is then employed as an example to different climate change mitigation scenarios generated with integrated assessment models. Even though some scenarios encompass considerable challenges for sustainability, no scenario performs better or worse than others in all dimensions, pointing to trade-offs between different dimensions of sustainable development. For this reason, we argue that these trade-offs need to be evaluated in a process of public deliberation that includes all relevant social actors.

Evaluating United States and world consumption of neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and praseodymium in final products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Matthew

This paper develops scenarios of future rare-earth-magnet metal (neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and praseodymium) consumption in the permanent magnets used in wind turbines and hybrid electric vehicles. The scenarios start with naive base-case scenarios for growth in wind-turbine and hybrid-electric-vehicle sales over the period 2011 to 2020, using historical data for each good. These naive scenarios assume that future growth follows time trends in historical data and does not depend on any exogenous variable. Specifically, growth of each technological market follows historical time trends, and the amount of rare earths used per unit of technology remains fixed. The chosen reference year is 2010. Implied consumptions of the rare earth magnet metals are calculated from these scenarios. Assumptions are made for the material composition of permanent magnets, the market share of permanent-magnet wind turbines and vehicles, and magnet weight per unit of technology. Different scenarios estimate how changes in factors like the material composition of magnets, growth of the economy, and the price of a substitute could affect future consumption. Each scenario presents a different method for reducing rare earth consumption and could be interpreted as potential policy choices. In 2010, the consumption (metric tons, rare-earth-oxide equivalent) of each rare-earth-magnet metal was as follows. Total neodymium consumption in the world for both technologies was 995 tons; dysprosium consumption was 133 tons; terbium consumption was 50 tons; praseodymium consumption was zero tons. The base scenario for wind turbines shows there could be strong, exponential growth in the global wind turbine market. New U.S. sales of hybrid vehicles would decline (in line with the current economic recession) while non-U.S. sales increase through 2020. There would be an overall increase in the total amount of magnetic rare earths consumed in the world. Total consumption of each rare earth in the short-term (2015) and mid-term (2020) scenarios could be between: 1,984 to 6,475 tons (2015) and 3,487 to 13,763 tons (2020) of neodymium; 331 to 864 tons (2015) and 587 to 1,834 tons (2020) of dysprosium; 123 to 325 tons (2015) and 219 to 687 tons (2020) of terbium; finally, zero to 871 tons (2015) and zero to 1,493 tons (2020) of praseodymium. Hybrid vehicle sales in non-U.S. countries could account for a large portion of magnetic rare earth consumption. Wind turbine and related rare earth consumption growth will also be driven by non-U.S. countries, especially developing nations like China. Despite wind turbines using bigger magnets, the sheer volume of hybrids sold and non-U.S. consumers could account for most future consumption of permanent magnets and their rare earths.

Assessing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Health Co-Benefits: A Structured Review of Lifestyle-Related Climate Change Mitigation Strategies.

PubMed

Quam, Vivian G M; Rocklöv, Joacim; Quam, Mikkel B M; Lucas, Rebekah A I

2017-04-27

This is the first structured review to identify and summarize research on lifestyle choices that improve health and have the greatest potential to mitigate climate change. Two literature searches were conducted on: (1) active transport health co-benefits, and (2) dietary health co-benefits. Articles needed to quantify both greenhouse gas emissions and health or nutrition outcomes resulting from active transport or diet changes. A data extraction tool (PRISMA) was created for article selection and evaluation. A rubric was devised to assess the biases, limitations and uncertainties of included articles. For active transport 790 articles were retrieved, nine meeting the inclusion criteria. For diet 2524 articles were retrieved, 23 meeting the inclusion criteria. A total of 31 articles were reviewed and assessed using the rubric, as one article met the inclusion criteria for both active transport and diet co-benefits. Methods used to estimate the effect of diet or active transport modification vary greatly precluding meta-analysis. The scale of impact on health and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) outcomes depends predominately on the aggressiveness of the diet or active transport scenario modelled, versus the modelling technique. Effective mitigation policies, infrastructure that supports active transport and low GHGE food delivery, plus community engagement are integral in achieving optimal health and GHGE outcomes. Variation in culture, nutritional and health status, plus geographic density will determine which mitigation scenario(s) best suit individual communities.

Assessing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Health Co-Benefits: A Structured Review of Lifestyle-Related Climate Change Mitigation Strategies

PubMed Central

Quam, Vivian G. M.; Rocklöv, Joacim; Quam, Mikkel B. M.; Lucas, Rebekah A. I.

2017-01-01

This is the first structured review to identify and summarize research on lifestyle choices that improve health and have the greatest potential to mitigate climate change. Two literature searches were conducted on: (1) active transport health co-benefits, and (2) dietary health co-benefits. Articles needed to quantify both greenhouse gas emissions and health or nutrition outcomes resulting from active transport or diet changes. A data extraction tool (PRISMA) was created for article selection and evaluation. A rubric was devised to assess the biases, limitations and uncertainties of included articles. For active transport 790 articles were retrieved, nine meeting the inclusion criteria. For diet 2524 articles were retrieved, 23 meeting the inclusion criteria. A total of 31 articles were reviewed and assessed using the rubric, as one article met the inclusion criteria for both active transport and diet co-benefits. Methods used to estimate the effect of diet or active transport modification vary greatly precluding meta-analysis. The scale of impact on health and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) outcomes depends predominately on the aggressiveness of the diet or active transport scenario modelled, versus the modelling technique. Effective mitigation policies, infrastructure that supports active transport and low GHGE food delivery, plus community engagement are integral in achieving optimal health and GHGE outcomes. Variation in culture, nutritional and health status, plus geographic density will determine which mitigation scenario(s) best suit individual communities. PMID:28448460

Use of simulated pages to prepare medical students for internship and improve patient safety.

PubMed

Schwind, Cathy J; Boehler, Margaret L; Markwell, Stephen J; Williams, Reed G; Brenner, Michael J

2011-01-01

During the transition from medical school to internship, trainees experience high levels of stress related to pages on the inpatient wards. The steep learning curve during this period may also affect patient safety. The authors piloted the use of simulated pages to improve medical student preparedness, decrease stress related to pages, and familiarize medical students with common patient problems. A multidisciplinary team at Southern Illinois University School of Medicine developed simulated pages that were tested among senior medical students. Sixteen medical students were presented with 11 common patient scenarios. Data on assessment, management, and global performance were collected. Mean confidence levels were evaluated pre- and postintervention. Students were also surveyed on how the simulated pages program influenced their perceived comfort in managing patient care needs and the usefulness of the exercise in preparing them to handle inpatient pages. Mean scores on the assessment and management portions of the scenarios varied widely depending on the scenario (range -15.6 ± 41.6 to 95.7 ± 9.5). Pass rates based on global performance ranged from 12% to 93%. Interrater agreement was high (mean kappa = 0.88). Students' confidence ratings on a six-point scale increased from 1.87 preintervention to 3.53 postintervention (P < .0001). Simulated pages engage medical students and may foster medical student preparedness for internship. Students valued the opportunity to simulate "on call" responsibilities, and exposure to simulated pages significantly increased their confidence levels. Further studies are needed to determine effects on patient safety outcomes.

Evaluation of appropriate sensor specifications for space based ballistic missile detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweitzer, Caroline; Stein, Karin; Wendelstein, Norbert

2012-10-01

The detection and tracking of ballistic missiles (BMs) during launch or cloud break using satellite based electro-optical (EO) sensors is a promising possibility for pre-instructing early warning and fire control radars. However, the successful detection of a BM is depending on the applied infrared (IR)-channel, as emission and reflection of threat and background vary in different spectral (IR-) bands and for different observation scenarios. In addition, the spatial resolution of the satellite based system also conditions the signal-to-clutter-ratio (SCR) and therefore the predictability of the flight path. Generally available satellite images provide data in spectral bands, which are suitable for remote sensing applications and earth surface observations. However, in the fields of BM early warning, these bands are not of interest making the simulation of background data essential. The paper focuses on the analysis of IR-bands suitable for missile detection by trading off the suppression of background signature against threat signal strength. This comprises a radiometric overview of the background radiation in different spectral bands for different climates and seasons as well as for various cloud types and covers. A brief investigation of the BM signature and its trajectory within a threat scenario is presented. Moreover, the influence on the SCR caused by different observation scenarios and varying spatial resolution are pointed out. The paper also introduces the software used for simulating natural background spectral radiance images, MATISSE ("Advanced Modeling of the Earth for Environment and Scenes Simulation") by ONERA [1].

Nonstationary decision model for flood risk decision scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, Caitlin M.; Brown, Casey M.

2016-11-01

Hydroclimatic stationarity is increasingly questioned as a default assumption in flood risk management (FRM), but successor methods are not yet established. Some potential successors depend on estimates of future flood quantiles, but methods for estimating future design storms are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Here we apply a Nonstationary Decision Model (NDM) to flood risk planning within the decision scaling framework. The NDM combines a nonstationary probability distribution of annual peak flow with optimal selection of flood management alternatives using robustness measures. The NDM incorporates structural and nonstructural FRM interventions and valuation of flows supporting ecosystem services to calculate expected cost of a given FRM strategy. A search for the minimum-cost strategy under incrementally varied representative scenarios extending across the plausible range of flood trend and value of the natural flow regime discovers candidate FRM strategies that are evaluated and compared through a decision scaling analysis (DSA). The DSA selects a management strategy that is optimal or close to optimal across the broadest range of scenarios or across the set of scenarios deemed most likely to occur according to estimates of future flood hazard. We illustrate the decision framework using a stylized example flood management decision based on the Iowa City flood management system, which has experienced recent unprecedented high flow episodes. The DSA indicates a preference for combining infrastructural and nonstructural adaptation measures to manage flood risk and makes clear that options-based approaches cannot be assumed to be "no" or "low regret."

An evaluation of climate change effects in estuarine salinity patterns: Application to Ria de Aveiro shallow water system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas, Catarina I. C.; Vaz, Nuno; Dias, João M.

2017-04-01

It is of global interest, for the definition of effective adaptation strategies, to make an assessment of climate change impacts in coastal environments. In this study, the salinity patterns adjustments and the correspondent Venice System zonations adaptations are evaluated through numerical modelling for Ria de Aveiro, a mesotidal shallow water lagoon located in the Portuguese coast, for the end of the 21st century in a climate change context. A reference (equivalent to present conditions) and three future scenarios are defined and simulated, both for wet and dry conditions. The future scenarios are designed with the following changes to the reference: scenario 1) projected mean sea level (MSL) rise; scenario 2) projected river flow discharges; and scenario 3) projections for both MSL and river flow discharges. The projections imposed are: a MSL rise of 0.42 m; a freshwater flow reduction of ∼22% for the wet season and a reduction of ∼87% for the dry season. Modelling results are analyzed for different tidal ranges. Results indicate: a) a salinity upstream intrusion and a generalized salinity increase for sea level rise scenario, with higher significance in middle-to-upper lagoon zones; b) a maximum salinity increase of ∼12 in scenario 3 and wet conditions for Espinheiro channel, the one with higher freshwater contribution; c) an upstream displacement of the saline fronts occurring in wet conditions for all future scenarios, with stronger expression for scenario 3, of ∼2 km in Espinheiro channel; and d) a landward progression of the saltier physical zones established in the Venice System scheme. The adaptation of the ecosystem to the upstream relocation of physical zones may be blocked by human settlements and other artificial barriers surrounding the estuarine environment.

Collision-model approach to steering of an open driven qubit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyer, Konstantin; Luoma, Kimmo; Strunz, Walter T.

2018-03-01

We investigate quantum steering of an open quantum system by measurements on its environment in the framework of collision models. As an example we consider a coherently driven qubit dissipatively coupled to a bath. We construct local nonadaptive and adaptive as well as nonlocal measurement scenarios specifying explicitly the measured observable on the environment. Our approach shows transparently how the conditional evolution of the open system depends on the type of the measurement scenario and the measured observables. These can then be optimized for steering. The nonlocal measurement scenario leads to maximal violation of the used steering inequality at zero temperature. Further, we investigate the robustness of the constructed scenarios against thermal noise. We find generally that steering becomes harder at higher temperatures. Surprisingly, the system can be steered even when bipartite entanglement between the system and individual subenvironments vanishes.

Accelerated Evaluation of Automated Vehicles Safety in Lane-Change Scenarios Based on Importance Sampling Techniques

PubMed Central

Zhao, Ding; Lam, Henry; Peng, Huei; Bao, Shan; LeBlanc, David J.; Nobukawa, Kazutoshi; Pan, Christopher S.

2016-01-01

Automated vehicles (AVs) must be thoroughly evaluated before their release and deployment. A widely used evaluation approach is the Naturalistic-Field Operational Test (N-FOT), which tests prototype vehicles directly on the public roads. Due to the low exposure to safety-critical scenarios, N-FOTs are time consuming and expensive to conduct. In this paper, we propose an accelerated evaluation approach for AVs. The results can be used to generate motions of the other primary vehicles to accelerate the verification of AVs in simulations and controlled experiments. Frontal collision due to unsafe cut-ins is the target crash type of this paper. Human-controlled vehicles making unsafe lane changes are modeled as the primary disturbance to AVs based on data collected by the University of Michigan Safety Pilot Model Deployment Program. The cut-in scenarios are generated based on skewed statistics of collected human driver behaviors, which generate risky testing scenarios while preserving the statistical information so that the safety benefits of AVs in nonaccelerated cases can be accurately estimated. The cross-entropy method is used to recursively search for the optimal skewing parameters. The frequencies of the occurrences of conflicts, crashes, and injuries are estimated for a modeled AV, and the achieved accelerated rate is around 2000 to 20 000. In other words, in the accelerated simulations, driving for 1000 miles will expose the AV with challenging scenarios that will take about 2 to 20 million miles of real-world driving to encounter. This technique thus has the potential to greatly reduce the development and validation time for AVs. PMID:27840592

Accelerated Evaluation of Automated Vehicles Safety in Lane-Change Scenarios Based on Importance Sampling Techniques.

PubMed

Zhao, Ding; Lam, Henry; Peng, Huei; Bao, Shan; LeBlanc, David J; Nobukawa, Kazutoshi; Pan, Christopher S

2017-03-01

Automated vehicles (AVs) must be thoroughly evaluated before their release and deployment. A widely used evaluation approach is the Naturalistic-Field Operational Test (N-FOT), which tests prototype vehicles directly on the public roads. Due to the low exposure to safety-critical scenarios, N-FOTs are time consuming and expensive to conduct. In this paper, we propose an accelerated evaluation approach for AVs. The results can be used to generate motions of the other primary vehicles to accelerate the verification of AVs in simulations and controlled experiments. Frontal collision due to unsafe cut-ins is the target crash type of this paper. Human-controlled vehicles making unsafe lane changes are modeled as the primary disturbance to AVs based on data collected by the University of Michigan Safety Pilot Model Deployment Program. The cut-in scenarios are generated based on skewed statistics of collected human driver behaviors, which generate risky testing scenarios while preserving the statistical information so that the safety benefits of AVs in nonaccelerated cases can be accurately estimated. The cross-entropy method is used to recursively search for the optimal skewing parameters. The frequencies of the occurrences of conflicts, crashes, and injuries are estimated for a modeled AV, and the achieved accelerated rate is around 2000 to 20 000. In other words, in the accelerated simulations, driving for 1000 miles will expose the AV with challenging scenarios that will take about 2 to 20 million miles of real-world driving to encounter. This technique thus has the potential to greatly reduce the development and validation time for AVs.

Implementation and outcome evaluation of high-fidelity simulation scenarios to integrate cognitive and psychomotor skills for Korean nursing students.

PubMed

Ahn, Heejung; Kim, Hyun-Young

2015-05-01

This study is involved in designing high-fidelity simulations reflecting the Korean nursing education environment. In addition, it evaluated the simulations by nursing students' learning outcomes and perceptions of the simulation design features. A quantitative design was used in two separate phases. For the first phase, five nursing experts participated in verifying the appropriateness of two simulation scenarios that reflected the intended learning objectives. For the second phase, 69 nursing students in the third year of a bachelor's degree at a nursing school participated in evaluating the simulations and were randomized according to their previous course grades. The first phase verified the two simulation scenarios using a questionnaire. The second phase evaluated students' perceptions of the simulation design, self-confidence, and critical thinking skills using a quasi-experimental post-test design. ANCOVA was used to compare the experimental and control groups, and correlation coefficient analysis was used to determine the correlation among them. We created 2 simulation scenarios to integrate cognitive and psychomotor skills according to the learning objectives and clinical environment in Korea. The experimental group had significantly higher scores on self-confidence in the first scenario. The positive correlations between perceptions of the simulation design features, self-confidence, and critical thinking skill scores were statistically significant. Students with a more positive perception of the design features of the simulations had better learning outcomes. Based on this result, simulations need to be designed and implemented with more differentiation in order to be perceived more appropriately by students. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of location and number of aid post for sustainable humanitarian relief using agent based modeling (ABM) and geographic information system (GIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khair, Fauzi; Sopha, Bertha Maya

2017-12-01

One of the crucial phases in disaster management is the response phase or the emergency response phase. It requires a sustainable system and a well-integrated management system. Any errors in the system on this phase will impact on significant increase of the victims number as well as material damage caused. Policies related to the location of aid posts are important decisions. The facts show that there are many failures in the process of providing assistance to the refugees due to lack of preparation and determination of facilities and aid post location. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the number and location of aid posts on Merapi eruption in 2010. This study uses an integration between Agent Based Modeling (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) about evaluation of the number and location of the aid post using some scenarios. The ABM approach aims to describe the agents behaviour (refugees and volunteers) in the event of a disaster with their respective characteristics. While the spatial data, GIS useful to describe real condition of the Sleman regency road. Based on the simulation result, it shows alternative scenarios that combine DERU UGM post, Maguwoharjo Stadium, Tagana Post and Pakem Main Post has better result in handling and distributing aid to evacuation barrack compared to initial scenario. Alternative scenarios indicates the unmet demands are less than the initial scenario.

Comparing Binaural Pre-processing Strategies I: Instrumental Evaluation.

PubMed

Baumgärtel, Regina M; Krawczyk-Becker, Martin; Marquardt, Daniel; Völker, Christoph; Hu, Hongmei; Herzke, Tobias; Coleman, Graham; Adiloğlu, Kamil; Ernst, Stephan M A; Gerkmann, Timo; Doclo, Simon; Kollmeier, Birger; Hohmann, Volker; Dietz, Mathias

2015-12-30

In a collaborative research project, several monaural and binaural noise reduction algorithms have been comprehensively evaluated. In this article, eight selected noise reduction algorithms were assessed using instrumental measures, with a focus on the instrumental evaluation of speech intelligibility. Four distinct, reverberant scenarios were created to reflect everyday listening situations: a stationary speech-shaped noise, a multitalker babble noise, a single interfering talker, and a realistic cafeteria noise. Three instrumental measures were employed to assess predicted speech intelligibility and predicted sound quality: the intelligibility-weighted signal-to-noise ratio, the short-time objective intelligibility measure, and the perceptual evaluation of speech quality. The results show substantial improvements in predicted speech intelligibility as well as sound quality for the proposed algorithms. The evaluated coherence-based noise reduction algorithm was able to provide improvements in predicted audio signal quality. For the tested single-channel noise reduction algorithm, improvements in intelligibility-weighted signal-to-noise ratio were observed in all but the nonstationary cafeteria ambient noise scenario. Binaural minimum variance distortionless response beamforming algorithms performed particularly well in all noise scenarios. © The Author(s) 2015.

Global bioenergy potentials from agricultural land in 2050: Sensitivity to climate change, diets and yields

PubMed Central

Haberl, Helmut; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Krausmann, Fridolin; Bondeau, Alberte; Lauk, Christian; Müller, Christoph; Plutzar, Christoph; Steinberger, Julia K.

2011-01-01

There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a “food first” approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP) and its human appropriation as well as socioeconomic biomass flow balances for the year 2000 that are modified according to a set of scenario assumptions to derive the biomass potential for 2050. We calculate the amount of biomass required to feed humans and livestock, considering losses between biomass supply and provision of final products. Based on this biomass balance as well as on global land-use data, we evaluate the potential to grow bioenergy crops and estimate the residue potentials from cropland (forestry is outside the scope of this study). We assess the sensitivity of the biomass potential to assumptions on diets, agricultural yields, cropland expansion and climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to evaluate possible impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and elevated CO2 on agricultural yields. We find that the gross (primary) bioenergy potential ranges from 64 to 161 EJ y−1, depending on climate impact, yields and diet, while the dependency on cropland expansion is weak. We conclude that food requirements for a growing world population, in particular feed required for livestock, strongly influence bioenergy potentials, and that integrated approaches are needed to optimize food and bioenergy supply. PMID:22211004

Sensitivities and Tipping Points of Power System Operations to Fluctuations Caused by Water Availability and Fuel Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connell, M.; Macknick, J.; Voisin, N.; Fu, T.

2017-12-01

The western US electric grid is highly dependent upon water resources for reliable operation. Hydropower and water-cooled thermoelectric technologies represent 67% of generating capacity in the western region of the US. While water resources provide a significant amount of generation and reliability for the grid, these same resources can represent vulnerabilities during times of drought or low flow conditions. A lack of water affects water-dependent technologies and can result in more expensive generators needing to run in order to meet electric grid demand, resulting in higher electricity prices and a higher cost to operate the grid. A companion study assesses the impact of changes in water availability and air temperatures on power operations by directly derating hydro and thermo-electric generators. In this study we assess the sensitivities and tipping points of water availability compared with higher fuel prices in electricity sector operations. We evaluate the impacts of varying electricity prices by modifying fuel prices for coal and natural gas. We then analyze the difference in simulation results between changes in fuel prices in combination with water availability and air temperature variability. We simulate three fuel price scenarios for a 2010 baseline scenario along with 100 historical and future hydro-climate conditions. We use the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions under each combination of fuel price and water constraint. Some of the metrics evaluated are total production cost, generation type mix, emissions, transmission congestion, and reserve procurement. These metrics give insight to how strained the system is, how much flexibility it still has, and to what extent water resource availability or fuel prices drive changes in the electricity sector operations. This work will provide insights into current electricity operations as well as future cases of increased penetration of variable renewable generation technologies such as wind and solar.

Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

2012-01-01

American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

Evaluating groundwater recharge variations under climate change in an endorheic basin of the Andean plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blin, N.; Hausner, M. B.; Suarez, F. I.

2017-12-01

In arid and semi-arid regions, where surface water and precipitations are scarce, groundwater is the main source of drinking water that sustains human and natural ecosystems. Therefore, it is very important to consider the potential impacts of climate change that threaten the availability of this resource. The purpose of this study is to investigate the variations caused by climate change on the recharge of the regional groundwater aquifer at the Huasco salt flat, located in the Chilean Andean plateau. The Huasco salt flat basin has ecosystems sustained by wetlands that depend on the groundwater levels of this aquifer. Due to this reason, the Chilean government has declared this zone as protected. Hence, the assurance of the future availability of the groundwater resource becomes extremely important. The sustainable management of this resource requires reasonable estimates of recharge and evapotranspiration, which are highly dependent on the characteristics and processes occurring in the vadose zone, i.e., topography, soil type and land use, and their temporal and spatial variations are significant in arid regions. With this aim, a three-dimensional groundwater model, implemented in SWAT-MODFLOW, was developed to couple the saturated system with the vadose zone. The model was calibrated and validated using historic data. General circulation models (GCMs) were used as scenarios inputs of recharge to the groundwater model. Future simulations were run by applying an offset to the historic air temperatures and to the precipitation. These offsets were determined using a delta hybrid approach based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble archive. The obtained results were downscaled to the 0.125º latitude x 0.125º longitude grid cell containing the basin of the Huasco salt flat. The hybrid approach considered the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the projected temperature and precipitation output as three scenarios of climate change used to evaluate recharge variation.

Prospective testing of neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for the Italian territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Vaccari, Franco; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Panza, Giuliano F.

2013-04-01

A reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected seismic ground shaking, eventually including the related time information, is essential in order to develop effective mitigation strategies and increase earthquake preparedness. Moreover, any effective tool for SHA must demonstrate its capability in anticipating the ground shaking related with large earthquake occurrences, a result that can be attained only through rigorous verification and validation process. So far, the major problems in classical probabilistic methods for seismic hazard assessment, PSHA, consisted in the adequate description of the earthquake recurrence, particularly for the largest and sporadic events, and of the attenuation models, which may be unable to account for the complexity of the medium and of the seismic sources and are often weekly constrained by the available observations. Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic waves generation and propagation processes allow nowadays for viable numerical and analytical alternatives to the use of attenuation relations. Accordingly, a scenario-based neo-deterministic approach, NDSHA, to seismic hazard assessment has been proposed, which allows considering a wide range of possible seismic sources as the starting point for deriving scenarios by means of full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of attenuation relations and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking, including reliable estimates of ground displacement readily applicable to seismic isolation techniques. Based on NDSHA, an operational integrated procedure for seismic hazard assessment has been developed, that allows for the definition of time dependent scenarios of ground shaking, through the routine updating of formally defined earthquake predictions. The integrated NDSHA procedure for seismic input definition, which is currently applied to the Italian territory, combines different pattern recognition techniques, designed for the space-time identification of strong earthquakes, with algorithms for the realistic modeling of ground motion. Accordingly, a set of deterministic scenarios of ground motion at bedrock, which refers to the time interval when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted area, can be defined by means of full waveform modeling, both at regional and local scale. CN and M8S predictions, as well as the related time-dependent ground motion scenarios associated with the alarmed areas, are regularly updated every two months since 2006. The routine application of the time-dependent NDSHA approach provides information that can be useful in assigning priorities for timely mitigation actions and, at the same time, allows for a rigorous prospective testing and validation of the proposed methodology. As an example, for sites where ground shaking values greater than 0.2 g are estimated at bedrock, further investigations can be performed taking into account the local soil conditions, to assess the performances of relevant structures, such as historical and strategic buildings. The issues related with prospective testing and validation of the time-dependent NDSHA scenarios will be discussed, illustrating the results obtained for the recent strong earthquakes in Italy, including the May 20, 2012 Emilia earthquake.

Spatial landuse planning using land evaluation and dynamic system to define sustainable area of paddy field: Case study in Karawang Regency, West Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widiatmaka, Widiatmaka; Ambarwulan, Wiwin; Firmansyah, Irman; Munibah, Khursatul; Santoso, Paulus B. K.

2015-04-01

Indonesia is the country with the 4th largest population in the worlds; the population reached more than 237 million people. With rice as the staple food for more than 95 percent of the population, there is an important role of paddy field in Indonesian food security. Actually, paddy field in Java has produced 52,6% of the total rice production in Indonesia, showing the very high dependence of Indonesia on food production from paddy fields in Java island. Karawang Regency is one of the regions in West Java Province that contribute to the national food supply, due to its high soil fertility and its high extent of paddy field. Dynamics of land use change in this region are high because of its proximity to urban area; this dynamics has led to paddy field conversion to industry and residential landuse, which in turn change the regional rice production capacity. Decreasing paddy field landuse in this region could be serve as an example case of the general phenomena which occurred in Javanese rice production region. The objective of this study were: (i) to identify the suitable area for paddy field, (ii) to modelize the decreasing of paddy field in socio-economic context of the region, and (iii) to plan the spatial priority area of paddy field protection according to model prediction. A land evaluation for paddy was completed after a soil survey, while IKONOS imagery was analyzed to delineate paddy fields. Dynamic system model of paddy field land use is built, and then based on the model built, the land area of paddy field untill 2040 in some scenarios was developped. The research results showed that the land suitability class for paddy fields in Karawang Regency ranged from very suitable (S1) to marginally suitable (S3), with various land characteristics as limiting factors. The model predicts that if the situation of paddy field land use change continues in its business as usual path, paddy field area that would exist in the region in 2040 will stay half of the recent area. Based on the model, the scenario were developed for the protection of priority area. With such scenario, paddy field remains close to the value predicted oficially. Spatial information then can play a role by presenting the scenario spatially. Combining spatial information with land suitability, priority areas of paddy field protection can be delineated. Policies that followed also then be compiled, including the location of protection. Key-words: Land evaluation, food security, spatial information

Predicting body temperature and activity of adult Polyommatus icarus using neural network models under current and projected climate scenarios.

PubMed

Howe, P D; Bryant, S R; Shreeve, T G

2007-10-01

We use field observations in two geographic regions within the British Isles and regression and neural network models to examine the relationship between microhabitat use, thoracic temperatures and activity in a widespread lycaenid butterfly, Polyommatus icarus. We also make predictions for future activity under climate change scenarios. Individuals from a univoltine northern population initiated flight with significantly lower thoracic temperatures than individuals from a bivoltine southern population. Activity is dependent on body temperature and neural network models of body temperature are better at predicting body temperature than generalized linear models. Neural network models of activity with a sole input of predicted body temperature (using weather and microclimate variables) are good predictors of observed activity and were better predictors than generalized linear models. By modelling activity under climate change scenarios for 2080 we predict differences in activity in relation to both regional differences of climate change and differing body temperature requirements for activity in different populations. Under average conditions for low-emission scenarios there will be little change in the activity of individuals from central-southern Britain and a reduction in northwest Scotland from 2003 activity levels. Under high-emission scenarios, flight-dependent activity in northwest Scotland will increase the greatest, despite smaller predicted increases in temperature and decreases in cloud cover. We suggest that neural network models are an effective way of predicting future activity in changing climates for microhabitat-specialist butterflies and that regional differences in the thermoregulatory response of populations will have profound effects on how they respond to climate change.

Population vulnerability and evacuation challenges in California for the SAFRR tsunami scenario: Chapter I in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan; Ratliff, Jamie; Peters, Jeff; Shoaf, Kimberley

2013-01-01

The SAFRR tsunami scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical yet plausible tsunami associated with a magnitude 9.1 megathrust earthquake east of the Alaska Peninsula. This report summarizes community variations in population vulnerability and potential evacuation challenges to the tsunami. The most significant public-health concern for California coastal communities during a distant-source tsunami is the ability to evacuate people out of potential inundation zones. Fatalities from the SAFRR tsunami scenario could be low if emergency managers can implement an effective evacuation in the time between tsunami generation and arrival, as well as keep people from entering tsunami-prone areas until all-clear messages can be delivered. This will be challenging given the estimated 91,956 residents, 81,277 employees, as well as numerous public venues, dependent-population facilities, community-support businesses, and high-volume beaches that are in the 79 incorporated communities and 17 counties that have land in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone. Although all coastal communities face some level of threat from this scenario, the highest concentrations of people in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone are in Long Beach, San Diego, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, and San Francisco. Communities also vary in the prevalent categories of populations that are in scenario tsunami-inundation zones, such as residents in Long Beach, employees in San Francisco, tourists at public venues in Santa Cruz, and beach or park visitors in unincorporated Los Angeles County. Certain communities have higher percentages of groups that may need targeted outreach and preparedness training, such as renters, the very young and very old, and individuals with limited English-language skills or no English-language skills at all. Sustained education and targeted evacuation messaging is also important at several high-occupancy public venues in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone (for example, city and county beaches, State or national parks, and amusement parks). Evacuations will be challenging, particularly for certain dependent-care populations, such as patients at hospitals and children at schools and daycare centers. We estimate that approximately 8,678 of the 91,956 residents in the scenario inundation zone are likely to need publicly provided shelters in the short term. Information presented in this report could be used to support emergency managers in their efforts to identify where additional preparedness and outreach activities may be needed to manage risks associated with California tsunamis.

Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

PubMed

Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

2010-04-01

This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7.

Caregivers' willingness-to-pay for Alzheimer's disease medications in Canada.

PubMed

Oremus, Mark; Tarride, Jean-Eric; Pullenayegum, Eleanor; Clayton, Natasha; Mugford, Gerry; Godwin, Marshall; Huan, Allen; Bacher, Yves; Villalpando, Juan-Manual; Gill, Sudeep S; Lanctôt, Krista L; Herrmann, Nathan; Raina, Parminder

2015-01-01

We studied caregivers' willingness-to-pay for Alzheimer's disease drug therapy. We recruited 216 caregivers of persons with mild or moderate Alzheimer's disease and presented them with four scenarios describing a hypothetical Alzheimer's disease medication. The scenarios described the medication as capable of either treating the symptoms of disease or modifying the course of disease. The scenarios also presented two different probabilities of adverse effects occurrence, i.e., 0% or 30%. Most caregivers said they would pay out-of-pocket for the medication, with support for such payment ranging from 68% to 93%, depending on the specific scenario. The highest level of support was for the 'disease modifying and no adverse effects' scenario, while the lowest level was for the 'symptom treatment and 30% chance of adverse effects' scenario. On average, caregivers' monthly willingness-to-pay out-of-pocket for the medication ranged from $214 to $277 (Canadian dollars). Dollar amounts were highest for the 'disease modifying and no adverse effects' scenario and lowest for the 'symptom treatment and 30% chance of adverse effects' scenario. Support for out-of-pocket payment and specific dollar amounts were highest when the medication did not involve adverse effects. Caregivers placed more value on the absence of adverse effects than on drug efficacy. © The Author(s) 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

AERIS - applications for the environment : real-time information synthesis : eco-signal operations modeling report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-12-01

This report constitutes the detailed modeling and evaluation results of the Eco-Signal Operations Operational Scenario defined by the AERIS program. The Operational Scenario constitutes four applications that are designed to provide environmental ben...

Scenario Analysis of the Impact on Drinking Water Intakes from Bromide in the Discharge of Treated Oil and Gas Wastewater

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA scientists created different scenarios for conventional commercial wastewater treatment plants that treat oil and gas wastewaters to evaluate the impact from bromide in discharges by the CWTP plants.

Re-evaluation of the sorption behaviour of Bromide and Sulfamethazine under field conditions using leaching data and modelling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gassmann, Matthias; Olsson, Oliver; Höper, Heinrich; Hamscher, Gerd; Kümmerer, Klaus

2016-04-01

The simulation of reactive transport in the aquatic environment is hampered by the ambiguity of environmental fate process conceptualizations for a specific substance in the literature. Concepts are usually identified by experimental studies and inverse modelling under controlled lab conditions in order to reduce environmental uncertainties such as uncertain boundary conditions and input data. However, since environmental conditions affect substance behaviour, a re-evaluation might be necessary under environmental conditions which might, in turn, be affected by uncertainties. Using a combination of experimental data and simulations of the leaching behaviour of the veterinary antibiotic Sulfamethazine (SMZ; synonym: sulfadimidine) and the hydrological tracer Bromide (Br) in a field lysimeter, we re-evaluated the sorption concepts of both substances under uncertain field conditions. Sampling data of a field lysimeter experiment in which both substances were applied twice a year with manure and sampled at the bottom of two lysimeters during three subsequent years was used for model set-up and evaluation. The total amount of leached SMZ and Br were 22 μg and 129 mg, respectively. A reactive transport model was parameterized to the conditions of the two lysimeters filled with monoliths (depth 2 m, area 1 m²) of a sandy soil showing a low pH value under which Bromide is sorptive. We used different sorption concepts such as constant and organic-carbon dependent sorption coefficients and instantaneous and kinetic sorption equilibrium. Combining the sorption concepts resulted in four scenarios per substance with different equations for sorption equilibrium and sorption kinetics. The GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) method was applied to each scenario using parameter ranges found in experimental and modelling studies. The parameter spaces for each scenario were sampled using a Latin Hypercube method which was refined around local model efficiency maxima. Results of the cumulative SMZ leaching simulations suggest a best conceptualization combination of instantaneous sorption to organic carbon which is consistent with the literature. The best Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (Neff) was 0.96 and the 5th and 95th percentile of the uncertainty estimation were 18 and 27 μg. In contrast, both scenarios of kinetic Br sorption had similar results (Neff =0.99, uncertainty bounds 110-176 mg and 112-176 mg) but were clearly better than instantaneous sorption scenarios. Therefore, only the concept of sorption kinetics could be identified for Br modelling whereas both tested sorption equilibrium coefficient concepts performed equally well. The reasons for this specific case of equifinality may be uncertainties of model input data under field conditions or an insensitivity of the sorption equilibrium method due to relatively low adsorption of Br. Our results show that it may be possible to identify or at least falsify specific sorption concepts under uncertain field conditions using a long-term leaching experiment and modelling methods. Cases of environmental fate concept equifinality arouse the possibility of future model structure uncertainty analysis using an ensemble of models with different environmental fate concepts.

Balancing the Role of Priors in Multi-Observer Segmentation Evaluation

PubMed Central

Huang, Xiaolei; Wang, Wei; Lopresti, Daniel; Long, Rodney; Antani, Sameer; Xue, Zhiyun; Thoma, George

2009-01-01

Comparison of a group of multiple observer segmentations is known to be a challenging problem. A good segmentation evaluation method would allow different segmentations not only to be compared, but to be combined to generate a “true” segmentation with higher consensus. Numerous multi-observer segmentation evaluation approaches have been proposed in the literature, and STAPLE in particular probabilistically estimates the true segmentation by optimal combination of observed segmentations and a prior model of the truth. An Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm, STAPLE’S convergence to the desired local minima depends on good initializations for the truth prior and the observer-performance prior. However, accurate modeling of the initial truth prior is nontrivial. Moreover, among the two priors, the truth prior always dominates so that in certain scenarios when meaningful observer-performance priors are available, STAPLE can not take advantage of that information. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian decision formulation of the problem that permits the two types of prior knowledge to be integrated in a complementary manner in four cases with differing application purposes: (1) with known truth prior; (2) with observer prior; (3) with neither truth prior nor observer prior; and (4) with both truth prior and observer prior. The third and fourth cases are not discussed (or effectively ignored) by STAPLE, and in our research we propose a new method to combine multiple-observer segmentations based on the maximum a posterior (MAP) principle, which respects the observer prior regardless of the availability of the truth prior. Based on the four scenarios, we have developed a web-based software application that implements the flexible segmentation evaluation framework for digitized uterine cervix images. Experiment results show that our framework has flexibility in effectively integrating different priors for multi-observer segmentation evaluation and it also generates results comparing favorably to those by the STAPLE algorithm and the Majority Vote Rule. PMID:20523759

Cutaneous exposure scenarios for engineered nanoparticles used in semiconductor fabrication: a preliminary investigation of workplace surface contamination.

PubMed

Shepard, Michele; Brenner, Sara

2014-01-01

Numerous studies are ongoing in the fields of nanotoxicology and exposure science; however, gaps remain in identifying and evaluating potential exposures from skin contact with engineered nanoparticles in occupational settings. The aim of this study was to identify potential cutaneous exposure scenarios at a workplace using engineered nanoparticles (alumina, ceria, amorphous silica) and evaluate the presence of these materials on workplace surfaces. Process review, workplace observations, and preliminary surface sampling were conducted using microvacuum and wipe sample collection methods and transmission electron microscopy with elemental analysis. Exposure scenarios were identified with potential for incidental contact. Nanoparticles of silica or silica and/or alumina agglomerates (or aggregates) were identified in surface samples from work areas where engineered nanoparticles were used or handled. Additional data are needed to evaluate occupational exposures from skin contact with engineered nanoparticles; precautionary measures should be used to minimize potential cutaneous exposures in the workplace.

C P -invariance violation at short-baseline experiments in 3 +1 neutrino scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Gouvêa, André; Kelly, Kevin J.; Kobach, Andrew

2015-03-01

New neutrino degrees of freedom allow for more sources of charge parity- (C P ) invariance violation (CPV). We explore the requirements for accessing C P -odd mixing parameters in the so-called 3 +1 scenario, where one assumes the existence of one extra, mostly sterile neutrino degree of freedom, heavier than the other three mass eigenstates. As a first step, we concentrate on the νe→νμ appearance channel in a hypothetical, upgraded version of the ν STORM proposal. We establish that the optimal baseline for CPV studies depends strongly on the value of Δ m142—the new mass-squared difference—and that the ability to observe CPV depends significantly on whether the experiment is performed at the optimal baseline. Even at the optimal baseline, it is very challenging to see CPV in 3 +1 scenarios if one considers only one appearance channel. Full exploration of CPV in short-baseline experiments will require precision measurements of tau appearance, a challenge significantly beyond what is currently being explored by the experimental neutrino community.

Security Analysis of Smart Grid Cyber Physical Infrastructures Using Modeling and Game Theoretic Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T.

Cyber physical computing infrastructures typically consist of a number of sites are interconnected. Its operation critically depends both on cyber components and physical components. Both types of components are subject to attacks of different kinds and frequencies, which must be accounted for the initial provisioning and subsequent operation of the infrastructure via information security analysis. Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, andmore » information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the electric sector failure scenarios and impact analyses by the NESCOR Working Group Study, From the Section 5 electric sector representative failure scenarios; we extracted the four generic failure scenarios and grouped them into three specific threat categories (confidentiality, integrity, and availability) to the system. These specific failure scenarios serve as a demonstration of our simulation. The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the electric sector functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the cyber physical infrastructure network with respect to CIA.« less

New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands.

PubMed

van den Hurk, B; Tank, A K; Lenderink, G; Ulden, A van; Oldenborgh, G J van; Katsman, C; Brink, H van den; Keller, F; Bessembinder, J; Burgers, G; Komen, G; Hazeleger, W; Drijfhout, S

2007-01-01

A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

Human health risk assessment case study: an abandoned metal smelter site in Poland.

PubMed

Wcisło, Eleonora; Ioven, Dawn; Kucharski, Rafal; Szdzuj, Jerzy

2002-05-01

United States Environmental Protection Agency methodologies for human health risk assessment (HRA) were applied in a Brownfields Demonstration Project on the Warynski smelter site (WSS), an abandoned industrial site at Piekary Slaskie town, Upper Silesia, Poland. The HRA included the baseline risk assessment (BRA) and the development of risk-based preliminary remedial goals (RBPRGs). The HRA focused on surface area covered with waste materials, which were evaluated with regard to the potential risks they may pose to humans. Cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, lead, and zinc were proposed as the contaminants of potential concern (COPCs) at WSS based on archive data on chemical composition of waste located on WSS. For the defined future land use patterns, the industrial (I) and recreational (II) exposure scenarios were assumed and evaluated. The combined hazard index for all COPCs was 3.1E+00 for Scenario I and 3.2E+00 for Scenario II. Regarding potential carcinogenic risks associated with the inhalation route, only cadmium was a contributor, with risks of 1.6E-06 and 2.6E-07 for Scenario I and Scenario II, respectively. The results of the BRA indicated that the potential health risks at WSS were mainly associated with waste material exposure to cadmium (industrial and recreational scenarios) and lead (industrial scenario). RBPRGs calculated under the industrial scenario were 1.17E+03 and 1.62E+03 mg/kg for cadmium and lead, respectively. The RBPRG for cadmium was 1.18E+03 mg/kg under the recreational scenario. The BRA results, as well as RBCs, are comparable for both scenarios, so it is impossible to prioritize land use patterns for WSS based on these results. For choosing a future land use pattern or an appropriate redevelopment option, different factors would be decisive in the decision-making process, e.g., social, market needs, technical feasibility and costs of redevelopment actions or acceptance of local community.

Evaluating Tidal Marsh Sustainability in the Face of Sea-Level Rise: A Hybrid Modeling Approach Applied to San Francisco Bay

PubMed Central

Stralberg, Diana; Brennan, Matthew; Callaway, John C.; Wood, Julian K.; Schile, Lisa M.; Jongsomjit, Dennis; Kelly, Maggi; Parker, V. Thomas; Crooks, Stephen

2011-01-01

Background Tidal marshes will be threatened by increasing rates of sea-level rise (SLR) over the next century. Managers seek guidance on whether existing and restored marshes will be resilient under a range of potential future conditions, and on prioritizing marsh restoration and conservation activities. Methodology Building upon established models, we developed a hybrid approach that involves a mechanistic treatment of marsh accretion dynamics and incorporates spatial variation at a scale relevant for conservation and restoration decision-making. We applied this model to San Francisco Bay, using best-available elevation data and estimates of sediment supply and organic matter accumulation developed for 15 Bay subregions. Accretion models were run over 100 years for 70 combinations of starting elevation, mineral sediment, organic matter, and SLR assumptions. Results were applied spatially to evaluate eight Bay-wide climate change scenarios. Principal Findings Model results indicated that under a high rate of SLR (1.65 m/century), short-term restoration of diked subtidal baylands to mid marsh elevations (−0.2 m MHHW) could be achieved over the next century with sediment concentrations greater than 200 mg/L. However, suspended sediment concentrations greater than 300 mg/L would be required for 100-year mid marsh sustainability (i.e., no elevation loss). Organic matter accumulation had minimal impacts on this threshold. Bay-wide projections of marsh habitat area varied substantially, depending primarily on SLR and sediment assumptions. Across all scenarios, however, the model projected a shift in the mix of intertidal habitats, with a loss of high marsh and gains in low marsh and mudflats. Conclusions/Significance Results suggest a bleak prognosis for long-term natural tidal marsh sustainability under a high-SLR scenario. To minimize marsh loss, we recommend conserving adjacent uplands for marsh migration, redistributing dredged sediment to raise elevations, and concentrating restoration efforts in sediment-rich areas. To assist land managers, we developed a web-based decision support tool (www.prbo.org/sfbayslr). PMID:22110638

Microalgal biomass production pathways: evaluation of life cycle environmental impacts

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Microalgae are touted as an attractive alternative to traditional forms of biomass for biofuel production, due to high productivity, ability to be cultivated on marginal lands, and potential to utilize carbon dioxide (CO2) from industrial flue gas. This work examines the fossil energy return on investment (EROIfossil), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and direct Water Demands (WD) of producing dried algal biomass through the cultivation of microalgae in Open Raceway Ponds (ORP) for 21 geographic locations in the contiguous United States (U.S.). For each location, comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) is performed for multiple microalgal biomass production pathways, consisting of a combination of cultivation and harvesting options. Results Results indicate that the EROIfossil for microalgae biomass vary from 0.38 to 1.08 with life cycle GHG emissions of −46.2 to 48.9 (g CO2 eq/MJ-biomass) and direct WDs of 20.8 to 38.8 (Liters/MJ-biomass) over the range of scenarios analyzed. Further anaylsis reveals that the EROIfossil for production pathways is relatively location invariant, and that algae’s life cycle energy balance and GHG impacts are highly dependent on cultivation and harvesting parameters. Contrarily, algae’s direct water demands were found to be highly sensitive to geographic location, and thus may be a constraining factor in sustainable algal-derived biofuel production. Additionally, scenarios with promising EROIfossil and GHG emissions profiles are plagued with high technological uncertainty. Conclusions Given the high variability in microalgae’s energy and environmental performance, careful evaluation of the algae-to-fuel supply chain is necessary to ensure the long-term sustainability of emerging algal biofuel systems. Alternative production scenarios and technologies may have the potential to reduce the critical demands of biomass production, and should be considered to make algae a viable and more efficient biofuel alternative. PMID:23786775

Assessment of the potential effects of climate change on water resources of the Delaware River basin; work plan for 1988-90

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayers, M.A.; Leavesley, G.H.

1989-01-01

The current consensus is that some global atmospheric warming will occur as a result of increasing ' greenhouse ' gases. Water resources scientists, planners, and managers are concerned about the uncertainty associated with climatic-change effects on water supplies and what planning might be necessary to mitigate the effects. Collaborative studies between climatologists, hydrologists, biologists, and others are needed to gain this understanding. The Delaware River basin study is an interdisciplinary effort on the part of the U.S. Geological Survey that was initiated to improve understanding of the sensitivity of the basin 's water resources to the potential effects of climate change. The Delaware River basin is 12,765 sq mi in area, crosses five physiographic provinces, and supplies water for an estimated 20 million people within and outside the basin. Climate change presumably will result in changes in precipitation and temperature and could have significant effects on evapotranspiration, streamflow, and groundwater recharge. A rise in sea level is likely to accompany global warming and, depending on changes in freshwater inflows, could alter the salinity of the Estuary and increase saline-water intrusion into adjacent aquifer systems. Because the potential effects are not well understood, this report discusses how the effects of climate change on the basin 's water resources might be defined and evaluated. The study objective is to investigate the basin 's hydrologic response, under existing water management policy and infrastructure, to various scenarios of climate change. Specific objectives include defining the temporal and spatial variability of basin hydrology under existing climate conditions , developing climate-change scenarios, and evaluating the potential effects and sensitivities of basin water availability to these scenarios. The objectives will be accomplished through intensive modeling analysis of the basin 's climate, watershed, estuary, and aquifer systems. (USGS)

A 2 °C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps.

PubMed

Elkin, Ché; Gutiérrez, Alvaro G; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Manusch, Corina; Temperli, Christian; Rasche, Livia; Bugmann, Harald

2013-06-01

Limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 °C is the objective of international efforts aimed at avoiding dangerous climate impacts. However, the regional response of terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide under such a scenario are largely unknown. We focus on mountain forests in the European Alps and evaluate how a range of ecosystem services (ES) are projected to be impacted in a 2 °C warmer world, using four novel regional climate scenarios. We employ three complementary forest models to assess a wide range of ES in two climatically contrasting case study regions. Within each climate scenario we evaluate if and when ES will deviate beyond status quo boundaries that are based on current system variability. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of mountain forest ES to a 2 °C warmer world depends heavily on the current climatic conditions of a region, the strong elevation gradients within a region, and the specific ES in question. Our simulations project that large negative impacts will occur at low and intermediate elevations in initially warm-dry regions, where relatively small climatic shifts result in negative drought-related impacts on forest ES. In contrast, at higher elevations, and in regions that are initially cool-wet, forest ES will be comparatively resistant to a 2 °C warmer world. We also found considerable variation in the vulnerability of forest ES to climate change, with some services such as protection against rockfall and avalanches being sensitive to 2 °C global climate change, but other services such as carbon storage being reasonably resistant. Although our results indicate a heterogeneous response of mountain forest ES to climate change, the projected substantial reduction of some forest ES in dry regions suggests that a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature cannot be seen as a universally 'safe' boundary for the maintenance of mountain forest ES. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Should image rotation be addressed during routine cone-beam CT quality assurance?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayan, Ahmet S.; Lin, Haibo; Yeager, Caitlyn; Deville, Curtiland; McDonough, James; Zhu, Timothy C.; Anderson, Nathan; Bar Ad, Voichita; Lu, Hsiao-Ming; Both, Stefan

2013-02-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether quality assurance (QA) for cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) image rotation is necessary in order to ensure the accuracy of CBCT based image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT) and adaptive radiotherapy (ART). Misregistration of angular coordinates during CBCT acquisition may lead to a rotated reconstructed image. If target localization is performed based on this image, an under- or over-dosage of the target volume (TV) and organs at risk (OARs) may occur. Therefore, patient CT image sets were rotated by 1° up to 3° and the treatment plans were recalculated to quantify changes in dose-volume histograms. A computer code in C++ was written to model the TV displacement and overlap area of an ellipse shape at the target and dose prescription levels corresponding to the image rotation. We investigated clinical scenarios in IGRT and ART in order to study the implications of image rotation on dose distributions for: (1) lateral TV and isocenter (SBRT), (2) central TV and isocenter (IMRT), (3) lateral TV and isocenter (IMRT). Mathematical analysis showed the dose coverage of TV depends on its shape, size, location, and orientation relative to the isocenter. Evaluation of three first scenario for θ = 1° showed variations in TV D95 in the context of IGRT and ART when compared to the original plan were within 2.7 ± 2.6% and 7.7 ± 6.9% respectively while variations in the second and third scenarios were less significant (<0.5%) for the angular range evaluated. However a larger degree of variation was found in terms of minimum and maximum doses for target and OARs. The rotation of CBCT image data sets may have significant dosimetric consequences in IGRT and ART. The TV's location relative to isocenter and shape determine the extent of alterations in dose indicators. Our findings suggest that a CBCT QA criterion of 1° would be a reasonable action level to ensure accurate dose delivery.

Aspects of Quality in Education for the Improvement of Educational Scenario

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haseena, V. A.; Mohammed, Ajims P.

2015-01-01

The economic growth of a nation depends greatly on the improvement in education. Human development to a great extent depends on the improvement in Education. Among various levels of education, higher education has a pervasive and influential impact on development. Higher education empowers the individual with necessary skills and competence for…

Scalable Cloning on Large-Scale GPU Platforms with Application to Time-Stepped Simulations on Grids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoginath, Srikanth B.; Perumalla, Kalyan S.

Cloning is a technique to efficiently simulate a tree of multiple what-if scenarios that are unraveled during the course of a base simulation. However, cloned execution is highly challenging to realize on large, distributed memory computing platforms, due to the dynamic nature of the computational load across clones, and due to the complex dependencies spanning the clone tree. In this paper, we present the conceptual simulation framework, algorithmic foundations, and runtime interface of CloneX, a new system we designed for scalable simulation cloning. It efficiently and dynamically creates whole logical copies of a dynamic tree of simulations across a largemore » parallel system without full physical duplication of computation and memory. The performance of a prototype implementation executed on up to 1,024 graphical processing units of a supercomputing system has been evaluated with three benchmarks—heat diffusion, forest fire, and disease propagation models—delivering a speed up of over two orders of magnitude compared to replicated runs. Finally, the results demonstrate a significantly faster and scalable way to execute many what-if scenario ensembles of large simulations via cloning using the CloneX interface.« less

Carbon farming economics: What have we learned?

PubMed

Tang, Kai; Kragt, Marit E; Hailu, Atakelty; Ma, Chunbo

2016-05-01

This study reviewed 62 economic analyses published between 1995 and 2014 on the economic impacts of policies that incentivise agricultural greenhouse (GHG) mitigation. Typically, biophysical models are used to evaluate the changes in GHG mitigation that result from landholders changing their farm and land management practices. The estimated results of biophysical models are then integrated with economic models to simulate the costs of different policy scenarios to production systems. The cost estimates vary between $3 and $130/t CO2 equivalent in 2012 US dollars, depending on the mitigation strategies, spatial locations, and policy scenarios considered. Most studies assessed the consequences of a single, rather than multiple, mitigation strategies, and few considered the co-benefits of carbon farming. These omissions could challenge the reality and robustness of the studies' results. One of the biggest challenges facing agricultural economists is to assess the full extent of the trade-offs involved in carbon farming. We need to improve our biophysical knowledge about carbon farming co-benefits, predict the economic impacts of employing multiple strategies and policy incentives, and develop the associated integrated models, to estimate the full costs and benefits of agricultural GHG mitigation to farmers and the rest of society. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scalable Cloning on Large-Scale GPU Platforms with Application to Time-Stepped Simulations on Grids

DOE PAGES

Yoginath, Srikanth B.; Perumalla, Kalyan S.

2018-01-31

Cloning is a technique to efficiently simulate a tree of multiple what-if scenarios that are unraveled during the course of a base simulation. However, cloned execution is highly challenging to realize on large, distributed memory computing platforms, due to the dynamic nature of the computational load across clones, and due to the complex dependencies spanning the clone tree. In this paper, we present the conceptual simulation framework, algorithmic foundations, and runtime interface of CloneX, a new system we designed for scalable simulation cloning. It efficiently and dynamically creates whole logical copies of a dynamic tree of simulations across a largemore » parallel system without full physical duplication of computation and memory. The performance of a prototype implementation executed on up to 1,024 graphical processing units of a supercomputing system has been evaluated with three benchmarks—heat diffusion, forest fire, and disease propagation models—delivering a speed up of over two orders of magnitude compared to replicated runs. Finally, the results demonstrate a significantly faster and scalable way to execute many what-if scenario ensembles of large simulations via cloning using the CloneX interface.« less

Scenario Analysis of Soil and Water Conservation in Xiejia Watershed Based on Improved CSLE Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jieying; Yu, Ming; Wu, Yong; Huang, Yao; Nie, Yawen

2018-01-01

According to the existing research results and related data, use the scenario analysis method, to evaluate the effects of different soil and water conservation measures on soil erosion in a small watershed. Based on the analysis of soil erosion scenarios and model simulation budgets in the study area, it is found that all scenarios simulated soil erosion rates are lower than the present situation of soil erosion in 2013. Soil and water conservation measures are more effective in reducing soil erosion than soil and water conservation biological measures and soil and water conservation tillage measures.

The Application of Neutron Transport Green's Functions to Threat Scenario Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thoreson, Gregory G.; Schneider, Erich A.; Armstrong, Hirotatsu; van der Hoeven, Christopher A.

2015-02-01

Radiation detectors provide deterrence and defense against nuclear smuggling attempts by scanning vehicles, ships, and pedestrians for radioactive material. Understanding detector performance is crucial to developing novel technologies, architectures, and alarm algorithms. Detection can be modeled through radiation transport simulations; however, modeling a spanning set of threat scenarios over the full transport phase-space is computationally challenging. Previous research has demonstrated Green's functions can simulate photon detector signals by decomposing the scenario space into independently simulated submodels. This paper presents decomposition methods for neutron and time-dependent transport. As a result, neutron detector signals produced from full forward transport simulations can be efficiently reconstructed by sequential application of submodel response functions.

Mechanism for Spiral Wave Breakup in Excitable and Oscillatory Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Junzhong; Xie, Fagen; Qu, Zhilin; Garfinkel, Alan

2003-10-01

We study spiral wave breakup using a Fitzhugh-Nagumo type system. We find that spiral wave breakup can occur near the core or far from it in both excitable and oscillatory regimes. There is a faraway breakup scenario in both excitable and oscillatory media that depends on long wavelength modulation modes. We observed three distinct scenarios, including one that involves breakup that does not develop into turbulence. However, we find that the mechanisms behind these three scenarios are the same: they are caused by the interaction between the dispersion relation and the asymptotic behavior of the modulation mode. The difference in phenomenology is due to the asymptotic behavior of the modulation mode.

The QUELCE Method: Using Change Drivers to Estimate Program Costs

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

QUELCE computes a distribution of program costs based on Monte Carlo analysis of program cost drivers—assessed via analyses of dependency structure...possible scenarios. These include  a dependency structure matrix to understand the interaction of change drivers for a specific project  a...performed by the SEI or by company analysts. From the workshop results, analysts create a dependency structure matrix (DSM) of the change drivers

A Flexible Approach for Human Activity Recognition Using Artificial Hydrocarbon Networks

PubMed Central

Ponce, Hiram; Miralles-Pechuán, Luis; Martínez-Villaseñor, María de Lourdes

2016-01-01

Physical activity recognition based on sensors is a growing area of interest given the great advances in wearable sensors. Applications in various domains are taking advantage of the ease of obtaining data to monitor personal activities and behavior in order to deliver proactive and personalized services. Although many activity recognition systems have been developed for more than two decades, there are still open issues to be tackled with new techniques. We address in this paper one of the main challenges of human activity recognition: Flexibility. Our goal in this work is to present artificial hydrocarbon networks as a novel flexible approach in a human activity recognition system. In order to evaluate the performance of artificial hydrocarbon networks based classifier, experimentation was designed for user-independent, and also for user-dependent case scenarios. Our results demonstrate that artificial hydrocarbon networks classifier is flexible enough to be used when building a human activity recognition system with either user-dependent or user-independent approaches. PMID:27792136

A Flexible Approach for Human Activity Recognition Using Artificial Hydrocarbon Networks.

PubMed

Ponce, Hiram; Miralles-Pechuán, Luis; Martínez-Villaseñor, María de Lourdes

2016-10-25

Physical activity recognition based on sensors is a growing area of interest given the great advances in wearable sensors. Applications in various domains are taking advantage of the ease of obtaining data to monitor personal activities and behavior in order to deliver proactive and personalized services. Although many activity recognition systems have been developed for more than two decades, there are still open issues to be tackled with new techniques. We address in this paper one of the main challenges of human activity recognition: Flexibility. Our goal in this work is to present artificial hydrocarbon networks as a novel flexible approach in a human activity recognition system. In order to evaluate the performance of artificial hydrocarbon networks based classifier, experimentation was designed for user-independent, and also for user-dependent case scenarios. Our results demonstrate that artificial hydrocarbon networks classifier is flexible enough to be used when building a human activity recognition system with either user-dependent or user-independent approaches.

Bioenergetic response by steelhead to variation in diet, thermal habitat, and climate in the north Pacific Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atcheson, Margaret E.; Myers, Katherine W.; Beauchamp, David A.; Mantua, Nathan J.

2012-01-01

Energetic responses of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss to climate-driven changes in marine conditions are expected to affect the species’ ocean distribution, feeding, growth, and survival. With a unique 18-year data series (1991–2008) for steelhead sampled in the open ocean, we simulated interannual variation in prey consumption and growth efficiency of steelhead using a bioenergetics model to evaluate the temperature-dependent growth response of steelhead to past climate events and to estimate growth potential of steelhead under future climate scenarios. Our results showed that annual ocean growth of steelhead is highly variable depending on prey quality, consumption rates, total consumption, and thermal experience. At optimal growing temperatures, steelhead can compensate for a low-energy diet by increasing consumption rates and consuming more prey, if available. Our findings suggest that steelhead have a narrow temperature window in which to achieve optimal growth, which is strongly influenced by climate-driven changes in ocean temperature.

Impact assessments of water allocation on water environment of river network: Method and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qinggai; Wang, Yaping; Lu, Xuchuan; Jia, Peng; Zhang, Beibei; Li, Chen; Li, Sa; Li, Shibei

2018-02-01

Two types of water allocation scenarios were proposed for reasonably utilizing water resources and improving water quality in a two-river network in Tongzhou District. Water circulation and quality were selected as two important indexes to evaluate the two scenario. Meanwhile, one-dimensional water amount and quality model was set up on the basis of the MIKE11 model to compare the two scenarios in terms of improving water environment. The results showed that both scenarios changed the hydrodynamic conditions, and consequently the river flow reached 0.05 m/s or higher in the central part of river stream. In addition, we also found that the two plans have similar effects on water quality, with first scenario producing larger area of water class III and IV than the second scenario.

Impact of QTL minor allele frequency on genomic evaluation using real genotype data and simulated phenotypes in Japanese Black cattle.

PubMed

Uemoto, Yoshinobu; Sasaki, Shinji; Kojima, Takatoshi; Sugimoto, Yoshikazu; Watanabe, Toshio

2015-11-19

Genetic variance that is not captured by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is due to imperfect linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNPs and quantitative trait loci (QTLs), and the extent of LD between SNPs and QTLs depends on different minor allele frequencies (MAF) between them. To evaluate the impact of MAF of QTLs on genomic evaluation, we performed a simulation study using real cattle genotype data. In total, 1368 Japanese Black cattle and 592,034 SNPs (Illumina BovineHD BeadChip) were used. We simulated phenotypes using real genotypes under different scenarios, varying the MAF categories, QTL heritability, number of QTLs, and distribution of QTL effect. After generating true breeding values and phenotypes, QTL heritability was estimated and the prediction accuracy of genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) was assessed under different SNP densities, prediction models, and population size by a reference-test validation design. The extent of LD between SNPs and QTLs in this population was higher in the QTLs with high MAF than in those with low MAF. The effect of MAF of QTLs depended on the genetic architecture, evaluation strategy, and population size in genomic evaluation. In genetic architecture, genomic evaluation was affected by the MAF of QTLs combined with the QTL heritability and the distribution of QTL effect. The number of QTL was not affected on genomic evaluation if the number of QTL was more than 50. In the evaluation strategy, we showed that different SNP densities and prediction models affect the heritability estimation and genomic prediction and that this depends on the MAF of QTLs. In addition, accurate QTL heritability and GEBV were obtained using denser SNP information and the prediction model accounted for the SNPs with low and high MAFs. In population size, a large sample size is needed to increase the accuracy of GEBV. The MAF of QTL had an impact on heritability estimation and prediction accuracy. Most genetic variance can be captured using denser SNPs and the prediction model accounted for MAF, but a large sample size is needed to increase the accuracy of GEBV under all QTL MAF categories.

Alternative Futures Analysis Of Farmington Bay Wetlands In The Great Salt Lake Ecosystem

EPA Science Inventory

An Alternative Futures Analysis (AFA) was conducted to evaluate tradeoffs between landscape design scenarios and ecological services for Farmington Bay, Great Salt Lake (GSL), wetlands. Model scenarios included both plan trend and conservation "futures" projected to 2030. Scena...

Chance-Constrained Missile-Procurement and Deployment Models for Naval Surface Warfare

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-03-01

II iv . Missions in period II are assigned so that period-II scenarios are satisfied with a user-specified probability IIsp , which may depend on...feasible solution of RFFAM will successfully cover the period-II demands with probability IIsp if the MAP is followed (see Corollary 1 in Chapter...given set of scenarios D , and in particular any IIsp -feasible subset. Therefore, assume that the remainder vectors ˆsjr are listed in non-increasing

On quantum effects in a theory of biological evolution.

PubMed

Martin-Delgado, M A

2012-01-01

We construct a descriptive toy model that considers quantum effects on biological evolution starting from Chaitin's classical framework. There are smart evolution scenarios in which a quantum world is as favorable as classical worlds for evolution to take place. However, in more natural scenarios, the rate of evolution depends on the degree of entanglement present in quantum organisms with respect to classical organisms. If the entanglement is maximal, classical evolution turns out to be more favorable.

On Quantum Effects in a Theory of Biological Evolution

PubMed Central

Martin-Delgado, M. A.

2012-01-01

We construct a descriptive toy model that considers quantum effects on biological evolution starting from Chaitin's classical framework. There are smart evolution scenarios in which a quantum world is as favorable as classical worlds for evolution to take place. However, in more natural scenarios, the rate of evolution depends on the degree of entanglement present in quantum organisms with respect to classical organisms. If the entanglement is maximal, classical evolution turns out to be more favorable. PMID:22413059

Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; ...

2016-05-17

The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions frommore » the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO 2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO 2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.« less

First approaches to the monetary impact of environmental health disturbances in Germany.

PubMed

Haucke, Florian; Brückner, Ulrike

2010-01-01

This article aims to describe essential conditions and starting-points for the monetary evaluation of environmentally attributable diseases. Furthermore, a cost calculation within a scenario analysis is conducted for Germany. To calculate the costs of environmental health effects we chose a disease-specific perspective. The national statistics of the Federal Statistical Office and the World Health Report burden of disease estimates were used to identify the most important disease categories for Germany. Based on an extensive literature research in computerized databases and the publications of national and international institutions, available costs of illness studies for Germany as well as environmental attributable fractions (EAFs) were identified. Based on these data environmental health costs were calculated with a top-down approach. Direct and indirect environmental costs of illness add up to 15-62 billion euro(2006) per year depending on the specific scenario. From our results a tentative scheme is deduced of how the monetary environmental burden of specific diseases is composed and how it can be assigned to major environmental exposures and economic sectors which can be used in setting intervention priorities and evaluating intervention efficiency. Within this article, we were able to calculate environmental health costs for Germany based on available, easy to access data and deduce implications for environmental policy decision-making. However, there are restrictions in data quality, as the aetiology of some diseases with respect to environmental impacts is not very well documented and data has not been collected particularly for Germany.

Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert; Turecek, Aaron

2015-01-01

Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

Effects of medical training scenarios on heart rate variability and motivation in students and simulated patients.

PubMed

Rieber, Nicole; Betz, Lisa; Enck, Paul; Muth, Eric; Nikendei, Christoph; Schrauth, Markus; Werner, Anne; Kowalski, Axel; Zipfel, Stephan

2009-06-01

Research regarding the experience of stress during medical training scenarios using standardised patients (SPs) has been primarily qualitative and has focused on the SPs. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate stress and motivation in both students and SPs during these scenarios by measuring heart rate variability (HRV) and administering the German version of the Questionnaire on Current Motivation (QCM). A total of 44 medical students (23 women, 21 men) participated in two medical history-taking training scenarios. In one scenario the SP role-played a patient with a somatic disease; in the other the SP played a patient with a psychosomatic disease, creating easy and difficult scenarios, respectively, for the student. Each student interviewed one of 11 SPs (five women, six men), using the same SP in both scenarios. Heart rate variability was measured during baseline periods and during the training scenarios in both students and SPs. Motivation was assessed before each training scenario. Heart rate variability was lower in both students and SPs during the scenarios compared with baseline values, but did not differ by scenario type. For students, motivation increased when the first scenario involved psychosomatic illness, but decreased when the first condition was somatic. For SPs motivation was consistent over time for scenarios involving psychosomatic disease, but decreased for somatic disease-related scenarios. The training scenarios induced stress in both students and SPs, as indicated by decreased HRV. Student motivation was high, indicating that SP scenarios represent a valid teaching method. Further studies in the natural setting of SP examinations are needed.

Earthquake cycles and physical modeling of the process leading up to a large earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohnaka, Mitiyasu

2004-08-01

A thorough discussion is made on what the rational constitutive law for earthquake ruptures ought to be from the standpoint of the physics of rock friction and fracture on the basis of solid facts observed in the laboratory. From this standpoint, it is concluded that the constitutive law should be a slip-dependent law with parameters that may depend on slip rate or time. With the long-term goal of establishing a rational methodology of forecasting large earthquakes, the entire process of one cycle for a typical, large earthquake is modeled, and a comprehensive scenario that unifies individual models for intermediate-and short-term (immediate) forecasts is presented within the framework based on the slip-dependent constitutive law and the earthquake cycle model. The earthquake cycle includes the phase of accumulation of elastic strain energy with tectonic loading (phase II), and the phase of rupture nucleation at the critical stage where an adequate amount of the elastic strain energy has been stored (phase III). Phase II plays a critical role in physical modeling of intermediate-term forecasting, and phase III in physical modeling of short-term (immediate) forecasting. The seismogenic layer and individual faults therein are inhomogeneous, and some of the physical quantities inherent in earthquake ruptures exhibit scale-dependence. It is therefore critically important to incorporate the properties of inhomogeneity and physical scaling, in order to construct realistic, unified scenarios with predictive capability. The scenario presented may be significant and useful as a necessary first step for establishing the methodology for forecasting large earthquakes.

Scenarios for optimizing potato productivity in a lunar CELSS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, R. M.; Morrow, R. C.; Tibbitts, T. W.; Bula, R. J.

1992-01-01

The use of controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) in the development and growth of large-scale bases on the Moon will reduce the expense of supplying life support materials from Earth. Such systems would use plants to produce food and oxygen, remove carbon dioxide, and recycle water and minerals. In a lunar CELSS, several factors are likely to be limiting to plant productivity, including the availability of growing area, electrical power, and lamp/ballast weight for lighting systems. Several management scenarios are outlined in this discussion for the production of potatoes based on their response to irradiance, photoperiod, and carbon dioxide concentration. Management scenarios that use 12-hr photoperiods, high carbon dioxide concentrations, and movable lamp banks to alternately irradiate halves of the growing area appear to be the most efficient in terms of growing area, electrical power, and lamp weights. However, the optimal scenario will be dependent upon the relative 'costs' of each factor.

Applying Qualitative Hazard Analysis to Support Quantitative Safety Analysis for Proposed Reduced Wake Separation Conops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shortle, John F.; Allocco, Michael

2005-01-01

This paper describes a scenario-driven hazard analysis process to identify, eliminate, and control safety-related risks. Within this process, we develop selective criteria to determine the applicability of applying engineering modeling to hypothesized hazard scenarios. This provides a basis for evaluating and prioritizing the scenarios as candidates for further quantitative analysis. We have applied this methodology to proposed concepts of operations for reduced wake separation for closely spaced parallel runways. For arrivals, the process identified 43 core hazard scenarios. Of these, we classified 12 as appropriate for further quantitative modeling, 24 that should be mitigated through controls, recommendations, and / or procedures (that is, scenarios not appropriate for quantitative modeling), and 7 that have the lowest priority for further analysis.

Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schurer, Andrew P.; Mann, Michael E.; Hawkins, Ed; Tett, Simon F. B.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.

2017-08-01

During the Paris conference in 2015, nations of the world strengthened the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by agreeing to holding `the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C' (ref. ). However, `pre-industrial' was not defined. Here we investigate the implications of different choices of the pre-industrial baseline on the likelihood of exceeding these two temperature thresholds. We find that for the strongest mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and a medium scenario RCP4.5, the probability of exceeding the thresholds and timing of exceedance is highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline; for example, the probability of crossing 1.5 °C by the end of the century under RCP2.6 varies from 61% to 88% depending on how the baseline is defined. In contrast, in the scenario with no mitigation, RCP8.5, both thresholds will almost certainly be exceeded by the middle of the century with the definition of the pre-industrial baseline of less importance. Allowable carbon emissions for threshold stabilization are similarly highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline. For stabilization at 2 °C, allowable emissions decrease by as much as 40% when earlier than nineteenth-century climates are considered as a baseline.

Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Eleanor J.; Ekici, Altug; Huang, Ye; Chadburn, Sarah E.; Huntingford, Chris; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Peng, Shushi; Krinner, Gerhard

2017-06-01

The land surface models JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, two versions) and ORCHIDEE-MICT (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), each with a revised representation of permafrost carbon, were coupled to the Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies (IMOGEN) intermediate-complexity climate and ocean carbon uptake model. IMOGEN calculates atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and local monthly surface climate for a given emission scenario with the land-atmosphere CO2 flux exchange from either JULES or ORCHIDEE-MICT. These simulations include feedbacks associated with permafrost carbon changes in a warming world. Both IMOGEN-JULES and IMOGEN-ORCHIDEE-MICT were forced by historical and three alternative future-CO2-emission scenarios. Those simulations were performed for different climate sensitivities and regional climate change patterns based on 22 different Earth system models (ESMs) used for CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), allowing us to explore climate uncertainties in the context of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks. Three future emission scenarios consistent with three representative concentration pathways were used: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Paired simulations with and without frozen carbon processes were required to quantify the impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on climate change. The additional warming from the permafrost carbon feedback is between 0.2 and 12 % of the change in the global mean temperature (ΔT) by the year 2100 and 0.5 and 17 % of ΔT by 2300, with these ranges reflecting differences in land surface models, climate models and emissions pathway. As a percentage of ΔT, the permafrost carbon feedback has a greater impact on the low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) than on the higher-emissions scenarios, suggesting that permafrost carbon should be taken into account when evaluating scenarios of heavy mitigation and stabilization. Structural differences between the land surface models (particularly the representation of the soil carbon decomposition) are found to be a larger source of uncertainties than differences in the climate response. Inertia in the permafrost carbon system means that the permafrost carbon response depends on the temporal trajectory of warming as well as the absolute amount of warming. We propose a new policy-relevant metric - the frozen carbon residence time (FCRt) in years - that can be derived from these complex land surface models and used to quantify the permafrost carbon response given any pathway of global temperature change.

Nondimensional Representations for Occulter Design and Performance Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cady, Eric

2011-01-01

An occulter is a spacecraft with a precisely-shaped optical edges which ies in formation with a telescope, blocking light from a star while leaving light from nearby planets una ected. Using linear optimization, occulters can be designed for use with telescopes over a wide range of telescope aperture sizes, science bands, and starlight suppression levels. It can be shown that this optimization depends primarily on a small number of independent nondimensional parameters, which correspond to Fresnel numbers and physical scales and enter the optimization only as constraints. We show how these can be used to span the parameter space of possible optimized occulters; this data set can then be mined to determine occulter sizes for various mission scenarios and sets of engineering constraints.

Accuracies of univariate and multivariate genomic prediction models in African cassava.

PubMed

Okeke, Uche Godfrey; Akdemir, Deniz; Rabbi, Ismail; Kulakow, Peter; Jannink, Jean-Luc

2017-12-04

Genomic selection (GS) promises to accelerate genetic gain in plant breeding programs especially for crop species such as cassava that have long breeding cycles. Practically, to implement GS in cassava breeding, it is necessary to evaluate different GS models and to develop suitable models for an optimized breeding pipeline. In this paper, we compared (1) prediction accuracies from a single-trait (uT) and a multi-trait (MT) mixed model for a single-environment genetic evaluation (Scenario 1), and (2) accuracies from a compound symmetric multi-environment model (uE) parameterized as a univariate multi-kernel model to a multivariate (ME) multi-environment mixed model that accounts for genotype-by-environment interaction for multi-environment genetic evaluation (Scenario 2). For these analyses, we used 16 years of public cassava breeding data for six target cassava traits and a fivefold cross-validation scheme with 10-repeat cycles to assess model prediction accuracies. In Scenario 1, the MT models had higher prediction accuracies than the uT models for all traits and locations analyzed, which amounted to on average a 40% improved prediction accuracy. For Scenario 2, we observed that the ME model had on average (across all locations and traits) a 12% improved prediction accuracy compared to the uE model. We recommend the use of multivariate mixed models (MT and ME) for cassava genetic evaluation. These models may be useful for other plant species.

Experimental and life cycle assessment analysis of gas emission from mechanically-biologically pretreated waste in a landfill with energy recovery.

PubMed

Di Maria, Francesco; Sordi, Alessio; Micale, Caterina

2013-11-01

The global gaseous emissions produced by landfilling the Mechanically Sorted Organic Fraction (MSOF) with different weeks of Mechanical Biological Treatment (MBT) was evaluated for an existing waste management system. One MBT facility and a landfill with internal combustion engines fuelled by the landfill gas for electrical energy production operate in the waste management system considered. An experimental apparatus was used to simulate 0, 4, 8 and 16weeks of aerobic stabilization and the consequent biogas potential (Nl/kg) of a large sample of MSOF withdrawn from the full-scale MBT. Stabilization achieved by the waste was evaluated by dynamic oxygen uptake and fermentation tests. Good correlation coefficients (R(2)), ranging from 0.7668 to 0.9772, were found between oxygen uptake, fermentation and anaerobic test values. On the basis of the results of several anaerobic tests, the methane production rate k (year(-1)) was evaluated. k ranged from 0.436 to 0.308year(-1) and the bio-methane potential from 37 to 12Nm(3)/tonne, respectively, for the MSOF with 0 and 16weeks of treatment. Energy recovery from landfill gas ranged from about 11 to 90kWh per tonne of disposed MSOF depending on the different scenario investigated. Life cycle analysis showed that the scenario with 0weeks of pre-treatment has the highest weighted global impact even if opposite results were obtained with respect to the single impact criteria. MSOF pre-treatment periods longer than 4weeks showed rather negligible variation in the global impact of system emissions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the Reconstruction of Text Phylogeny Trees: Evaluation and Analysis of Textual Relationships

PubMed Central

Marmerola, Guilherme D.; Dias, Zanoni; Goldenstein, Siome; Rocha, Anderson

2016-01-01

Over the history of mankind, textual records change. Sometimes due to mistakes during transcription, sometimes on purpose, as a way to rewrite facts and reinterpret history. There are several classical cases, such as the logarithmic tables, and the transmission of antique and medieval scholarship. Today, text documents are largely edited and redistributed on the Web. Articles on news portals and collaborative platforms (such as Wikipedia), source code, posts on social networks, and even scientific publications or literary works are some examples in which textual content can be subject to changes in an evolutionary process. In this scenario, given a set of near-duplicate documents, it is worthwhile to find which one is the original and the history of changes that created the whole set. Such functionality would have immediate applications on news tracking services, detection of plagiarism, textual criticism, and copyright enforcement, for instance. However, this is not an easy task, as textual features pointing to the documents’ evolutionary direction may not be evident and are often dataset dependent. Moreover, side information, such as time stamps, are neither always available nor reliable. In this paper, we propose a framework for reliably reconstructing text phylogeny trees, and seamlessly exploring new approaches on a wide range of scenarios of text reusage. We employ and evaluate distinct combinations of dissimilarity measures and reconstruction strategies within the proposed framework, and evaluate each approach with extensive experiments, including a set of artificial near-duplicate documents with known phylogeny, and from documents collected from Wikipedia, whose modifications were made by Internet users. We also present results from qualitative experiments in two different applications: text plagiarism and reconstruction of evolutionary trees for manuscripts (stemmatology). PMID:27992446

Simulating Blade-Strike on Fish passing through Marine Hydrokinetic Turbines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Romero Gomez, Pedro DJ; Richmond, Marshall C.

2014-06-16

The study reported here evaluated the occurrence, frequency, and intensity of blade strike of fish on an axial-flow marine hydrokinetic turbine by using two modeling approaches: a conventional kinematic formulation and a proposed Lagrangian particle- based scheme. The kinematic model included simplifying assumptions of fish trajectories such as distribution and velocity. The proposed method overcame the need for such simplifications by integrating the following components into a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model: (i) advanced eddy-resolving flow simulation, (ii) generation of ambient turbulence based on field data, (iii) moving turbine blades in highly transient flows, and (iv) Lagrangian particles to mimicmore » the potential fish pathways. The test conditions to evaluate the blade-strike probability and fish survival rate were: (i) the turbulent environment, (ii) the fish size, and (iii) the approaching flow velocity. The proposed method offered the ability to produce potential fish trajectories and their interaction with the rotating turbine. Depending upon the scenario, the percentile of particles that registered a collision event ranged from 6% to 19% of the released sample size. Next, by using a set of experimental correlations of the exposure-response of living fish colliding with moving blades, the simulated collision data were used as input variables to estimate the survival rate of fish passing through the operating turbine. The resulting survival rates were greater than 96% in all scenarios, which is comparable to or better than known survival rates for conventional hydropower turbines. The figures of strike probability and mortality rate were amplified by the kinematic model. The proposed method offered the advantage of expanding the evaluation of other mechanisms of stress and injury on fish derived from hydrokinetic turbines and related devices.« less

Perspectives of Patients With Cancer on the Ethics of Rapid-Learning Health Systems.

PubMed

Jagsi, Reshma; Griffith, Kent A; Sabolch, Aaron; Jones, Rochelle; Spence, Rebecca; De Vries, Raymond; Grande, David; Bradbury, Angela R

2017-07-10

Purpose To inform the evolving implementation of CancerLinQ and other rapid-learning systems for oncology care, we sought to evaluate perspectives of patients with cancer regarding ethical issues. Methods Using the GfK Group online research panel, representative of the US population, we surveyed 875 patients with cancer; 621 (71%) responded. We evaluated perceptions of appropriateness (scored from 1 to 10; 10, very appropriate) using scenarios and compared responses by age, race, and education. We constructed a scaled measure of comfort with secondary use of deidentified medical information and evaluated its correlates in a multivariable model. Results Of the sample, 9% were black and 9% Hispanic; 38% had completed high school or less, and 59% were age ≥ 65 years. Perceptions of appropriateness were highest when consent was obtained and university researchers used data to publish a research study (weighted mean appropriateness, 8.47) and lowest when consent was not obtained and a pharmaceutical company used data for marketing (weighted mean appropriateness, 2.7). Most respondents (72%) thought secondary use of data for research was very important, although those with lower education were less likely to endorse this (62% v 78%; P < .001). Overall, 35% believed it was necessary to obtain consent each time such research was to be performed; this proportion was higher among blacks/Hispanics than others (48% v 33%; P = .02). Comfort with the use of deidentified information from medical records varied by scenario and overall was associated with distrust in the health care system. Conclusion Perceptions of patients with cancer regarding secondary data use depend on the user and the specific use of the data, while also frequently differing by patient sociodemographic factors. Such information is critical to inform ongoing efforts to implement oncology learning systems.

Comparison of a hybrid medication distribution system to simulated decentralized distribution models.

PubMed

Gray, John P; Ludwig, Brad; Temple, Jack; Melby, Michael; Rough, Steve

2013-08-01

The results of a study to estimate the human resource and cost implications of changing the medication distribution model at a large medical center are presented. A two-part study was conducted to evaluate alternatives to the hospital's existing hybrid distribution model (64% of doses dispensed via cart fill and 36% via automated dispensing cabinets [ADCs]). An assessment of nurse, pharmacist, and pharmacy technician workloads within the hybrid system was performed through direct observation, with time standards calculated for each dispensing task; similar time studies were conducted at a comparator hospital with a decentralized medication distribution system involving greater use of ADCs. The time study data were then used in simulation modeling of alternative distribution scenarios: one involving no use of cart fill, one involving no use of ADCs, and one heavily dependent on ADC dispensing (89% via ADC and 11% via cart fill). Simulation of the base-case and alternative scenarios indicated that as the modeled percentage of doses dispensed from ADCs rose, the calculated pharmacy technician labor requirements decreased, with a proportionately greater increase in the nursing staff workload. Given that nurses are a higher-cost resource than pharmacy technicians, the projected human resource opportunity cost of transitioning from the hybrid system to a decentralized system similar to the comparator facility's was estimated at $229,691 per annum. Based on the simulation results, it was decided that a transition from the existing hybrid medication distribution system to a more ADC-dependent model would result in an unfavorable shift in staff skill mix and corresponding human resource costs at the medical center.

Evaluation of a filmed clinical scenario as a teaching resource for an introductory pharmacology unit for undergraduate health students: A pilot study.

PubMed

East, Leah; Hutchinson, Marie

2015-12-01

Simulation is frequently being used as a learning and teaching resource for both undergraduate and postgraduate students, however reporting of the effectiveness of simulation particularly within the pharmacology context is scant. The aim of this pilot study was to evaluate a filmed simulated pharmacological clinical scenario as a teaching resource in an undergraduate pharmacological unit. Pilot cross-sectional quantitative survey. An Australian university. 32 undergraduate students completing a healthcare degree including nursing, midwifery, clinical science, health science, naturopathy, and osteopathy. As a part of an undergraduate online pharmacology unit, students were required to watch a filmed simulated pharmacological clinical scenario. To evaluate student learning, a measurement instrument developed from Bloom's cognitive domains (knowledge, comprehension, application, analysis, synthesis and evaluation) was employed to assess pharmacological knowledge conceptualisation and knowledge application within the following fields: medication errors; medication adverse effects; medication interactions; and, general pharmacology. The majority of participants were enrolled in an undergraduate nursing or midwifery programme (72%). Results demonstrated that the majority of nursing and midwifery students (56.52%) found the teaching resource complementary or more useful compared to a lecture although less so compared to a tutorial. Students' self-assessment of learning according to Bloom's cognitive domains indicated that the filmed scenario was a valuable learning tool. Analysis of variance indicated that health science students reported higher levels of learning compared to midwifery and nursing. Students' self-report of the learning benefits of a filmed simulated clinical scenario as a teaching resource suggest enhanced critical thinking skills and knowledge conceptualisation regarding pharmacology, in addition to being useful and complementary to other teaching and learning methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

All APAPs Are Not Equivalent for the Treatment of Sleep Disordered Breathing: A Bench Evaluation of Eleven Commercially Available Devices

PubMed Central

Zhu, Kaixian; Roisman, Gabriel; Aouf, Sami; Escourrou, Pierre

2015-01-01

Study Objectives: This study challenged on a bench-test the efficacy of auto-titrating positive airway pressure (APAP) devices for obstructive sleep disordered breathing treatment and evaluated the accuracy of the device reports. Methods: Our bench consisted of an active lung simulator and a Starling resistor. Eleven commercially available APAP devices were evaluated on their reactions to single-type SDB sequences (obstructive apnea and hypopnea, central apnea, and snoring), and to a long general breathing scenario (5.75 h) simulating various SDB during four sleep cycles and to a short scenario (95 min) simulating one sleep cycle. Results: In the single-type sequence of 30-minute repetitive obstructive apneas, only 5 devices normalized the airflow (> 70% of baseline breathing amplitude). Similarly, normalized breathing was recorded with 8 devices only for a 20-min obstructive hypopnea sequence. Five devices increased the pressure in response to snoring. Only 4 devices maintained a constant minimum pressure when subjected to repeated central apneas with an open upper airway. In the long general breathing scenario, the pressure responses and the treatment efficacy differed among devices: only 5 devices obtained a residual obstructive AHI < 5/h. During the short general breathing scenario, only 2 devices reached the same treatment efficacy (p < 0.001), and 3 devices underestimated the AHI by > 10% (p < 0.001). The long scenario led to more consistent device reports. Conclusion: Large differences between APAP devices in the treatment efficacy and the accuracy of report were evidenced in the current study. Citation: Zhu K, Roisman G, Aouf S, Escourrou P. All APAPs are not equivalent for the treatment of sleep disordered breathing: a bench evaluation of eleven commercially available devices. J Clin Sleep Med 2015;11(7):725–734. PMID:25766708

Views from Within a Narrative: Evaluating Long-Term Human-Robot Interaction in a Naturalistic Environment Using Open-Ended Scenarios.

PubMed

Syrdal, Dag Sverre; Dautenhahn, Kerstin; Koay, Kheng Lee; Ho, Wan Ching

2014-01-01

This article describes the prototyping of human-robot interactions in the University of Hertfordshire (UH) Robot House. Twelve participants took part in a long-term study in which they interacted with robots in the UH Robot House once a week for a period of 10 weeks. A prototyping method using the narrative framing technique allowed participants to engage with the robots in episodic interactions that were framed using narrative to convey the impression of a continuous long-term interaction. The goal was to examine how participants responded to the scenarios and the robots as well as specific robot behaviours, such as agent migration and expressive behaviours. Evaluation of the robots and the scenarios were elicited using several measures, including the standardised System Usability Scale, an ad hoc Scenario Acceptance Scale, as well as single-item Likert scales, open-ended questionnaire items and a debriefing interview. Results suggest that participants felt that the use of this prototyping technique allowed them insight into the use of the robot, and that they accepted the use of the robot within the scenario.

An inverse approach to perturb historical rainfall data for scenario-neutral climate impact studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.

2018-01-01

Scenario-neutral approaches are being used increasingly for climate impact assessments, as they allow water resource system performance to be evaluated independently of climate change projections. An important element of these approaches is the generation of perturbed series of hydrometeorological variables that form the inputs to hydrologic and water resource assessment models, with most scenario-neutral studies to-date considering only shifts in the average and a limited number of other statistics of each climate variable. In this study, a stochastic generation approach is used to perturb not only the average of the relevant hydrometeorological variables, but also attributes such as the intermittency and extremes. An optimization-based inverse approach is developed to obtain hydrometeorological time series with uniform coverage across the possible ranges of rainfall attributes (referred to as the 'exposure space'). The approach is demonstrated on a widely used rainfall generator, WGEN, for a case study at Adelaide, Australia, and is shown to be capable of producing evenly-distributed samples over the exposure space. The inverse approach expands the applicability of the scenario-neutral approach in evaluating a water resource system's sensitivity to a wider range of plausible climate change scenarios.

Comprehensive evaluation of the linear stability of Alfvén eigenmodes driven by alpha particles in an ITER baseline scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueiredo, A. C. A.; Rodrigues, P.; Borba, D.; Coelho, R.; Fazendeiro, L.; Ferreira, J.; Loureiro, N. F.; Nabais, F.; Pinches, S. D.; Polevoi, A. R.; Sharapov, S. E.

2016-07-01

The linear stability of Alfvén eigenmodes in the presence of fusion-born alpha particles is thoroughly assessed for two variants of an ITER baseline scenario, which differ significantly in their core and pedestal temperatures. A systematic approach based on CASTOR-K (Borba and Kerner 1999 J. Comput. Phys. 153 101; Nabais et al 2015 Plasma Sci. Technol. 17 89) is used that considers all possible eigenmodes for a given magnetic equilibrium and determines their growth rates due to alpha-particle drive and Landau damping on fuel ions, helium ashes and electrons. It is found that the fastest growing instabilities in the aforementioned ITER scenario are core-localized, low-shear toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes. The largest growth-rates occur in the scenario variant with higher core temperatures, which has the highest alpha-particle density and density gradient, for eigenmodes with toroidal mode numbers n≈ 30 . Although these eigenmodes suffer significant radiative damping, which is also evaluated, their growth rates remain larger than those of the most unstable eigenmodes found in the variant of the ITER baseline scenario with lower core temperatures, which have n≈ 15 and are not affected by radiative damping.

Potential effects of four Flaming Gorge Dam hydropower operational scenarios on the fishes of the Green River, Utah and Colorado

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hlohowskyj, I.; Hayse, J.W.

1995-09-01

Aerial videography and modeling were used to evaluate the impacts of four hydropower operational scenarios at Flaming Gorge Dam, Utah, on trout and native fishes in the Green River, Utah and Colorado. The four operational scenarios studied were year-round high fluctuations, seasonally adjusted high fluctuations, seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuations, and seasonally adjusted steady flows. Impacts on trout were evaluated by examining differences among scenarios in the areas of inundated substrates that serve as spawning and feeding habitat. All scenarios would provide at least 23 acres per mile of habitat for spawning and food production; seasonally adjusted operations would provide additionalmore » areas during periods of sustained high release. Seasonally adjusted high fluctuations would increase inundated areas by 12 to 26% for a short period in winter and spring, but food production and reproduction would not be expected to increase. Seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuations and steady flows would produce similar increases in area, but the longer period of inundation could also result in increased food production and provide additional spawning sites for trout. Impacts on native fishes were assessed by examining daily changes in backwater nursery areas. Compared with year-round high fluctuations, the daily changes in backwater area would decrease by about 47, 89, and 100% under the seasonally adjusted high fluctuation, moderate fluctuation, and steady flow scenarios, respectively. Similarly, daily stage fluctuations during the nursery period would decrease by 72, 89, and 100% under the seasonally adjusted high fluctuation, moderate fluctuation, and steady flow scenarios, respectively. These reductions in daily fluctuations in backwater area and stage would improve conditions in nursery habitats and could in turn improve recruitment and overwinter survival. Introduced fish species could also benefit from the seasonally adjusted operational scenarios.« less

Strategies for a better performance of RPL under mobility in wireless sensor networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latib, Z. A.; Jamil, A.; Alduais, N. A. M.; Abdullah, J.; Audah, L. H. M.; Alias, R.

2017-09-01

A Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) is usually stationary, which the network comprises of static nodes. The increase demand for mobility in various applications such as environmental monitoring, medical, home automation, and military, raises the question how IPv6 Routing Protocol for Low-Power and Lossy Networks (RPL) would perform under these mobility applications. This paper aims to understand performance of RPL and come out with strategies for a better performance of RPL in mobility scenarios. Because of this, this paper evaluates the performance of the RPL protocol under three different scenarios: sink and sensor nodes are static, static sink and mobile sensor nodes, and sink and sensor nodes are mobile. The network scenarios are implemented in Cooja simulator. A WSN consists of 25 sensor nodes and one sink node is configured in the simulation environment. The simulation is varied over different packet rates and ContikiMAC's Clear Channel Assessment (CCA) rate. As the performance metric, RPL is evaluated in term of packet delivery ratio (PDR), power consumption and packet rates. The simulation results show RPL provides a poor PDR in the mobility scenarios when compared to the static scenario. In addition, RPL consumes more power and increases duty-cycle rate to support mobility when compared to the static scenario. Based on the findings, we suggest three strategies for a better performance of RPL in mobility scenarios. First, RPL should operates at a lower packet rates when implemented in the mobility scenarios. Second, RPL should be implemented with a higher duty-cycle rate. Lastly, the sink node should be positioned as much as possible in the center of the mobile network.

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2014-12-01

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their specific concerns; 3) providing groups with information packaged specifically for them; 4) recognizing the value of having scenario developers personally present the scenario to user groups and 5) having the SAFRR work applied to support ongoing activities by and future directions of the California state tsunami program.

Sustainability of water uses in managed hydrosystems: human- and climate-induced changes for the mid-21st century

DOE PAGES

Fabre, Julie; Ruelland, Denis; Dezetter, Alain; ...

2016-08-02

This paper assesses the sustainability of planned water uses in mesoscale river basins under multiple climate change scenarios, and contributes to determining the possible causes of unsustainability. We propose an assessment grounded in real-world water management issues, with water management scenarios built in collaboration with local water agencies. Furthermore, we present an analysis through indicators that relate to management goals and present the implications of climate uncertainty for our results, furthering the significance of our study for water management. A modeling framework integrating hydro-climatic and human dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand was applied in two basinsmore » of different scales and with contrasting water uses: the Herault (2500 km 2, France) and the Ebro (85 000 km 2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model. A demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Human water demand was estimated from time series of demographic, socioeconomic and climatic data. Environmental flows were accounted for by defining streamflow thresholds under which withdrawals were strictly limited. Finally indicators comparing water availability to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was applied under different combinations of climatic and water use scenarios for the mid-21st to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Results showed that objective monthly environmental flows would be guaranteed in current climate conditions in both basins, yet in several areas this could imply limiting human water uses more than once every 5 years. The impact of the tested climate projections on both water availability and demand could question the water allocations and environmental requirements currently planned for the coming decades. Water shortages for human use could become more frequent and intense, and the pressure on water resources and aquatic ecosystems could intensify. Furthermore, the causes of unsustainability vary across sub-basins and scenarios, and in most areas results are highly dependent on the climate change scenario.« less

Sustainability of water uses in managed hydrosystems: human- and climate-induced changes for the mid-21st century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fabre, Julie; Ruelland, Denis; Dezetter, Alain

This paper assesses the sustainability of planned water uses in mesoscale river basins under multiple climate change scenarios, and contributes to determining the possible causes of unsustainability. We propose an assessment grounded in real-world water management issues, with water management scenarios built in collaboration with local water agencies. Furthermore, we present an analysis through indicators that relate to management goals and present the implications of climate uncertainty for our results, furthering the significance of our study for water management. A modeling framework integrating hydro-climatic and human dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand was applied in two basinsmore » of different scales and with contrasting water uses: the Herault (2500 km 2, France) and the Ebro (85 000 km 2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model. A demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Human water demand was estimated from time series of demographic, socioeconomic and climatic data. Environmental flows were accounted for by defining streamflow thresholds under which withdrawals were strictly limited. Finally indicators comparing water availability to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was applied under different combinations of climatic and water use scenarios for the mid-21st to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Results showed that objective monthly environmental flows would be guaranteed in current climate conditions in both basins, yet in several areas this could imply limiting human water uses more than once every 5 years. The impact of the tested climate projections on both water availability and demand could question the water allocations and environmental requirements currently planned for the coming decades. Water shortages for human use could become more frequent and intense, and the pressure on water resources and aquatic ecosystems could intensify. Furthermore, the causes of unsustainability vary across sub-basins and scenarios, and in most areas results are highly dependent on the climate change scenario.« less

The potential of shifting recombination hotspots to increase genetic gain in livestock breeding.

PubMed

Gonen, Serap; Battagin, Mara; Johnston, Susan E; Gorjanc, Gregor; Hickey, John M

2017-07-04

This study uses simulation to explore and quantify the potential effect of shifting recombination hotspots on genetic gain in livestock breeding programs. We simulated three scenarios that differed in the locations of quantitative trait nucleotides (QTN) and recombination hotspots in the genome. In scenario 1, QTN were randomly distributed along the chromosomes and recombination was restricted to occur within specific genomic regions (i.e. recombination hotspots). In the other two scenarios, both QTN and recombination hotspots were located in specific regions, but differed in whether the QTN occurred outside of (scenario 2) or inside (scenario 3) recombination hotspots. We split each chromosome into 250, 500 or 1000 regions per chromosome of which 10% were recombination hotspots and/or contained QTN. The breeding program was run for 21 generations of selection, after which recombination hotspot regions were kept the same or were shifted to adjacent regions for a further 80 generations of selection. We evaluated the effect of shifting recombination hotspots on genetic gain, genetic variance and genic variance. Our results show that shifting recombination hotspots reduced the decline of genetic and genic variance by releasing standing allelic variation in the form of new allele combinations. This in turn resulted in larger increases in genetic gain. However, the benefit of shifting recombination hotspots for increased genetic gain was only observed when QTN were initially outside recombination hotspots. If QTN were initially inside recombination hotspots then shifting them decreased genetic gain. Shifting recombination hotspots to regions of the genome where recombination had not occurred for 21 generations of selection (i.e. recombination deserts) released more of the standing allelic variation available in each generation and thus increased genetic gain. However, whether and how much increase in genetic gain was achieved by shifting recombination hotspots depended on the distribution of QTN in the genome, the number of recombination hotspots and whether QTN were initially inside or outside recombination hotspots. Our findings show future scope for targeted modification of recombination hotspots e.g. through changes in zinc-finger motifs of the PRDM9 protein to increase genetic gain in production species.

How do women trade-off benefits and risks in chemotherapy treatment decisions based on gene expression profiling for early-stage breast cancer? A discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Marshall, Deborah A; Deal, Ken; Bombard, Yvonne; Leighl, Natasha; MacDonald, Karen V; Trudeau, Maureen

2016-06-02

Gene expression profiling (GEP) of tumours informs baseline risk prediction, potentially affecting adjuvant chemotherapy decisions for women with early-stage breast cancer. Since only 15% will experience a recurrence, concerns have been raised about potential harms from overtreatment and high GEP costs in publicly funded healthcare systems. We aimed to estimate preferences and personal utility of GEP testing information and benefit-risk trade-offs in chemotherapy treatment decisions. Based on literature review and findings from our qualitative research (focus groups, interviews with patients with breast cancer and medical oncologists), we developed a discrete choice experiment (DCE) survey and administered it via an internet panel. The DCE included 12 choice tasks with 5 attributes and 3 alternatives considering orthogonality, D-efficiency and level balance. The DCE survey was administered to 1004 Canadian women from the general population. Preferences were analysed using conditional logit and hierarchical Bayes and evaluated for goodness of fit. We conducted simulation analyses for alternative scenarios. GEP test score indicating likely benefit from chemotherapy was the most important attribute. Doctor's clinical estimate of the risk of cancer returning, trust in your cancer doctor and side effects of chemotherapy (temporary and permanent) were relatively less important but showed significant differences among levels. In the scenario analyses, 78% were likely to choose chemotherapy in a high-risk scenario, 55% in a moderate-risk scenario and 33% in a low-risk scenario, with the other attributes held constant. A high GEP score was more important in influencing the choice of chemotherapy for those at intermediate clinical risk. GEP testing information influences chemotherapy treatment decisions in early-stage breast cancer and varies depending on clinical risk. Clinicians should be aware of these differences and tailor the use of GEP testing accordingly. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

2011-12-01

Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This work demonstrates the importance of land use in shaping future patterns of climate change, both globally and regionally.

An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Labiosa, Bill; Forney, William M.; Hearn,, Paul P.; Hogan, Dianna M.; Strong, David R.; Swain, Eric D.; Esnard, Ann-Margaret; Mitsova-Boneva, D.; Bernknopf, R.; Pearlstine, Leonard; Gladwin, Hugh

2013-01-01

Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

Strategic Analysis Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cirillo, William M.; Earle, Kevin D.; Goodliff, Kandyce E.; Reeves, J. D.; Stromgren, Chel; Andraschko, Mark R.; Merrill, R. Gabe

2008-01-01

NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

Multicriteria evaluation of simulated logging scenarios in a tropical rain forest.

PubMed

Huth, Andreas; Drechsler, Martin; Köhler, Peter

2004-07-01

Forest growth models are useful tools for investigating the long-term impacts of logging. In this paper, the results of the rain forest growth model FORMIND were assessed by a multicriteria decision analysis. The main processes covered by FORMIND include tree growth, mortality, regeneration and competition. Tree growth is calculated based on a carbon balance approach. Trees compete for light and space; dying large trees fall down and create gaps in the forest. Sixty-four different logging scenarios for an initially undisturbed forest stand at Deramakot (Malaysia) were simulated. The scenarios differ regarding the logging cycle, logging method, cutting limit and logging intensity. We characterise the impacts with four criteria describing the yield, canopy opening and changes in species composition. Multicriteria decision analysis was used for the first time to evaluate the scenarios and identify the efficient ones. Our results plainly show that reduced-impact logging scenarios are more 'efficient' than the others, since in these scenarios forest damage is minimised without significantly reducing yield. Nevertheless, there is a trade-off between yield and achieving a desired ecological state of logged forest; the ecological state of the logged forests can only be improved by reducing yields and enlarging the logging cycles. Our study also demonstrates that high cutting limits or low logging intensities cannot compensate for the high level of damage caused by conventional logging techniques.

Evaluating uncertainty in environmental life-cycle assessment. A case study comparing two insulation options for a Dutch one-family dwelling.

PubMed

Huijbregts, Mark A J; Gilijamse, Wim; Ragas, Ad M J; Reijnders, Lucas

2003-06-01

The evaluation of uncertainty is relatively new in environmental life-cycle assessment (LCA). It provides useful information to assess the reliability of LCA-based decisions and to guide future research toward reducing uncertainty. Most uncertainty studies in LCA quantify only one type of uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty due to input data (parameter uncertainty). However, LCA outcomes can also be uncertain due to normative choices (scenario uncertainty) and the mathematical models involved (model uncertainty). The present paper outlines a new methodology that quantifies parameter, scenario, and model uncertainty simultaneously in environmental life-cycle assessment. The procedure is illustrated in a case study that compares two insulation options for a Dutch one-family dwelling. Parameter uncertainty was quantified by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Scenario and model uncertainty were quantified by resampling different decision scenarios and model formulations, respectively. Although scenario and model uncertainty were not quantified comprehensively, the results indicate that both types of uncertainty influence the case study outcomes. This stresses the importance of quantifying parameter, scenario, and model uncertainty simultaneously. The two insulation options studied were found to have significantly different impact scores for global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and eutrophication. The thickest insulation option has the lowest impact on global warming and eutrophication, and the highest impact on stratospheric ozone depletion.

Impact of maximum levels in European legislation on exposure of mycotoxins in dried products: case of aflatoxin B1 and ochratoxin A in nuts and dried fruits.

PubMed

Van de Perre, Evelien; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Lachat, Carl; El Tahan, Fouad; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2015-01-01

In this study the impact of setting European criteria on exposure to aflatoxin B1 via nuts and figs and ochratoxin A via dried fruits is evaluated for the Belgian population, as an example of the European population. Two different scenarios were evaluated. In scenario 1 all collected literature data are considered, assuming that there is no border control nor legal limits in Europe. In the second scenario, contamination levels above the maximum limits are excluded. The results from scenario 1 demonstrated that if no regulation is in place, AFB1 and OTA concentrations reported in the analysed food can have potential health risk to the population. The estimated exposure of OTA for scenario 2 is below the TDI of 5 ng/kg BW⋅day, indicating that OTA concentrations accepted by EU legislation pose a low risk to the Belgian population. For AFB1, the MOE values of scenario 2 are above 10,000 and can be considered to be of low health concern, based on BDML10 for humans, except for figs (MOE = 5782). This means that for all matrices, with exception of figs, the maximum values of AFB1 in the European legislation are sufficient to be of a low health concern for consumers. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Thermal effects and sudden decay approximation in the curvaton scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kitajima, Naoya; Takesako, Tomohiro; Yokoyama, Shuichiro

2014-10-01

We study the impact of a temperature-dependent curvaton decay rate on the primordial curvature perturbation generated in the curvaton scenario. Using the familiar sudden decay approximation, we obtain an analytical expression for the curvature perturbation after the decay of the curvaton. We then investigate numerically the evolution of the background and of the perturbations during the decay. We first show that the instantaneous transfer coefficient, related to the curvaton energy fraction at the decay, can be extended into a more general parameter, which depends on the net transfer of the curvaton energy into radiation energy or, equivalently, on the totalmore » entropy ratio after the complete curvaton decay. We then compute the curvature perturbation and compare this result with the sudden decay approximation prediction.« less

Reaction norm model with unknown environmental covariate to analyze heterosis by environment interaction.

PubMed

Su, G; Madsen, P; Lund, M S

2009-05-01

Crossbreeding is currently increasing in dairy cattle production. Several studies have shown an environment-dependent heterosis [i.e., an interaction between heterosis and environment (H x E)]. An H x E interaction is usually estimated from a few discrete environment levels. The present study proposes a reaction norm model to describe H x E interaction, which can deal with a large number of environment levels using few parameters. In the proposed model, total heterosis consists of an environment-independent part, which is described as a function of heterozygosity, and an environment-dependent part, which is described as a function of heterozygosity and environmental value (e.g., herd-year effect). A Bayesian approach is developed to estimate the environmental covariates, the regression coefficients of the reaction norm, and other parameters of the model simultaneously in both linear and nonlinear reaction norms. In the nonlinear reaction norm model, the H x E is approximated using linear splines. The approach was tested using simulated data, which were generated using an animal model with a reaction norm for heterosis. The simulation study includes 4 scenarios (the combinations of moderate vs. low heritability and moderate vs. low herd-year variation) of H x E interaction in a nonlinear form. In all scenarios, the proposed model predicted total heterosis very well. The correlation between true heterosis and predicted heterosis was 0.98 in the scenarios with low herd-year variation and 0.99 in the scenarios with moderate herd-year variation. This suggests that the proposed model and method could be a good approach to analyze H x E interactions and predict breeding values in situations in which heterosis changes gradually and continuously over an environmental gradient. On the other hand, it was found that a model ignoring H x E interaction did not significantly harm the prediction of breeding value under the simulated scenarios in which the variance for environment-dependent heterosis effects was small (as it generally is), and sires were randomly used over production environments.

Understanding the spectral hardenings and radial distribution of Galactic cosmic rays and Fermi diffuse γ rays with spatially-dependent propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yi-Qing; Yuan, Qiang

2018-03-01

Recent direct measurements of Galactic cosmic ray spectra by balloon/space-borne detectors reveal spectral hardenings of all major nucleus species at rigidities of a few hundred GV. The all-sky diffuse γ -ray emissions measured by the Fermi Large Area Telescope also show spatial variations of the intensities and spectral indices of cosmic rays. These new observations challenge the traditional simple acceleration and/or propagation scenario of Galactic cosmic rays. In this work, we propose a spatially dependent diffusion scenario to explain all these phenomena. The diffusion coefficient is assumed to be anticorrelated with the source distribution, which is a natural expectation from the charged particle transportation in a turbulent magnetic field. The spatially dependent diffusion model also gives a lower level of anisotropies of cosmic rays, which are consistent with observations by underground muons and air shower experiments. The spectral variations of cosmic rays across the Galaxy can be properly reproduced by this model.

Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H.; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

2017-03-01

The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

Evaluation of the performance of accelerometer-based gait event detection algorithms in different real-world scenarios using the MAREA gait database.

PubMed

Khandelwal, Siddhartha; Wickström, Nicholas

2017-01-01

Numerous gait event detection (GED) algorithms have been developed using accelerometers as they allow the possibility of long-term gait analysis in everyday life. However, almost all such existing algorithms have been developed and assessed using data collected in controlled indoor experiments with pre-defined paths and walking speeds. On the contrary, human gait is quite dynamic in the real-world, often involving varying gait speeds, changing surfaces and varying surface inclinations. Though portable wearable systems can be used to conduct experiments directly in the real-world, there is a lack of publicly available gait datasets or studies evaluating the performance of existing GED algorithms in various real-world settings. This paper presents a new gait database called MAREA (n=20 healthy subjects) that consists of walking and running in indoor and outdoor environments with accelerometers positioned on waist, wrist and both ankles. The study also evaluates the performance of six state-of-the-art accelerometer-based GED algorithms in different real-world scenarios, using the MAREA gait database. The results reveal that the performance of these algorithms is inconsistent and varies with changing environments and gait speeds. All algorithms demonstrated good performance for the scenario of steady walking in a controlled indoor environment with a combined median F1score of 0.98 for Heel-Strikes and 0.94 for Toe-Offs. However, they exhibited significantly decreased performance when evaluated in other lesser controlled scenarios such as walking and running in an outdoor street, with a combined median F1score of 0.82 for Heel-Strikes and 0.53 for Toe-Offs. Moreover, all GED algorithms displayed better performance for detecting Heel-Strikes as compared to Toe-Offs, when evaluated in different scenarios. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Renewable energies in electricity generation for reduction of greenhouse gases in Mexico 2025.

PubMed

Islas, Jorge; Manzini, Fabio; Martínez, Manuel

2002-02-01

This study presents 4 scenarios relating to the environmental futures of electricity generation in Mexico up to the year 2025. The first scenario emphasizes the use of oil products, particularly fuel oil, and represents the historic path of Mexico's energy policy. The second scenario prioritizes the use of natural gas, reflecting the energy consumption pattern that arose in the mid-1990s as a result of reforms in the energy sector. In the third scenario, the high participation of renewable sources of energy is considered feasible from a technical and economic point of view. The fourth scenario takes into account the present- and medium-term use of natural-gas technologies that the energy reform has produced, but after 2007 a high and feasible participation of renewable sources of energy is considered. The 4 scenarios are evaluated up to the year 2025 in terms of greenhouse gases (GHG) and acid rain precursor gases (ARPG).

Modified natural cycle versus controlled ovarian hyperstimulation IVF: a cost-effectiveness evaluation of three simulated treatment scenarios.

PubMed

Groen, Henk; Tonch, Nino; Simons, Arnold H M; van der Veen, Fulco; Hoek, Annemieke; Land, Jolande A

2013-12-01

Can modified natural cycle IVF or ICSI (MNC) be a cost-effective alternative for controlled ovarian hyperstimulation IVF or ICSI (COH)? The comparison of simulated scenarios indicates that a strategy of three to six cycles of MNC with minimized medication is a cost-effective alternative for one cycle of COH with strict application of single embryo transfer (SET). MNC is cheaper per cycle than COH but also less effective in terms of live birth rate (LBR). However, strict application of SET in COH cycles reduces effectiveness and up to three MNC cycles can be performed at the same costs as one COH cycle. The cost-effectiveness of MNC versus COH was evaluated in three simulated treatment scenarios: three cycles of MNC versus one cycle of COH with SET or double embryo transfer (DET) and subsequent transfer of cryopreserved embryos (Scenario 1); six cycles of MNC versus one cycle of COH with strictly SET and subsequent transfer of cryopreserved embryos (Scenario 2); six cycles of MNC with minimized medication (hCG ovulation trigger only) versus one cycle of COH with SET or DET and subsequent transfer of cryopreserved embryos (Scenario 3). We used baseline data obtained from two retrospective cohorts of consecutive patients (2005-2008) undergoing MNC in the University Medical Center Groningen (n = 499, maximum six cycles per patient) or their first COH cycle with subsequent transfer of cryopreserved embryos in the Academic Medical Center Amsterdam (n = 392). Data from 1994 MNC cycles (958 MNC-IVF and 1036 MNC-ICSI) and 392 fresh COH cycles (one per patient, 196 COH-IVF and 196 COH-ICSI) with subsequent transfer of cryopreserved embryos (n = 72 and n = 94 in MNC and COH cycles, respectively) in ovulatory, subfertile women <36 years of age served as baseline for the three simulated scenarios. To compare the scenarios, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated, defined as the ratio of the difference in IVF costs up to 6 weeks postpartum to the difference in LBR. Live birth was the primary outcome measure and was defined as the birth of at least one living child after a gestation of ≥25 weeks. In the baseline data, MNC was not cost-effective, as COH dominated MNC with a higher cumulative LBR (27.0 versus 24.0%) and lower cost per patient (€3694 versus €5254). The simulations showed that in scenario 1 three instead of six cycles lowered the costs of MNC to below the level of COH (€3390 versus €3694, respectively), but also lowered the LBR per patient (from 24.0 to 16.2%, respectively); Scenario 2: COH with strict SET was less effective than six cycles MNC (LBR 17.5 versus 24.0%, respectively), but also less expensive per patient (€2908) than MNC (€5254); Scenario 3: improved the cost-effectiveness of MNC but COH still dominated MNC when medication was minimized in terms of costs, i.e. €855 difference in favor of COH and 3% difference in LBR in favor of COH (ICER: €855/-3.0%). Owing to the retrospective nature of the study, the analyses required some assumptions, for example regarding the costs of pregnancy and delivery, which had to be based on the literature rather than on individual data. Furthermore, costs of IVF treatment were based on tariffs and not on actual costs. Although this may limit the external generalizability of the results, the limitations will influence both treatments equally, and would therefore not bias the comparison of MNC versus COH. The combined results suggest that MNC with minimized medication might be a cost-effective alternative for COH with strict SET. The scenarios reflect realistic alternatives for daily clinical practice. A preference for MNC depends on the willingness to trade off effectiveness in terms of LBR against the benefits of a milder stimulation regimen, including a very low rate of multiple pregnancies and hyperstimulation syndrome and ensuing lower costs per live birth. The study was supported by research grants from Merck Serono and Ferring Pharmaceuticals. The authors declare no conflicts of interest. Not applicable.

Combined sewer overflow control with LID based on SWMM: an example in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Liao, Z L; Zhang, G Q; Wu, Z H; He, Y; Chen, H

2015-01-01

Although low impact development (LID) has been commonly applied across the developed countries for mitigating the negative impacts of combined sewer overflows (CSOs) on urban hydrological environment, it has not been widely used in developing countries yet. In this paper, a typical combined sewer system in an urbanized area of Shanghai, China was used to demonstrate how to design and choose CSO control solutions with LID using stormwater management model. We constructed and simulated three types of CSO control scenarios. Our findings support the notion that LID measures possess favorable capability on CSO reduction. Nevertheless, the green scenarios which are completely comprised by LID measures fail to achieve the maximal effectiveness on CSO reduction, while the gray-green scenarios (LID measure combined with gray measures) achieve it. The unit cost-effectiveness of each type of scenario sorts as: green scenario > gray-green scenario > gray scenario. Actually, as the storage tank is built in the case catchment, a complete application of green scenario is inaccessible here. Through comprehensive evaluation and comparison, the gray-green scenario F which used the combination of storage tank, bio-retention and rain barrels is considered as the most feasible one in this case.

Role Assessment of GIS Analysis and its Reliability while Ranking Urban Sustainability Using Scenarios Specific to Regional Climate, Community and Culture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salmi, H. Al; Abdulmuttalib, H. M.

2012-07-01

Urban Sustainability expresses the level of conservation of a city while living a town or consuming its urban resources, but the measurement of urban sustainability depends on what are considered important indicators of conservation besides the permitted levels of consumption in accordance with adopted criteria. This criterion should have common factors that are shared for all the members tested or cities to be evaluated as in this particular case for Abu Dhabi, but also have specific factors that are related to the geographic place, community and culture, that is the measures of urban sustainability specific to a middle east climate, community and culture where GIS Vector and Raster analysis have a role or add a value in urban sustainability measurements or grading are considered herein. Scenarios were tested using various GIS data types to replicate urban history (ten years period), current status and expected future of Abu Dhabi City setting factors to climate, community needs and culture. The useful Vector or Raster GIS data sets that are related to every scenario where selected and analysed in the sense of how and how much it can benefit the urban sustainability ranking in quantity and quality tests, this besides assessing the suitable data nature, type and format, the important topology rules to be considered, the useful attributes to be added, the relationships which should be maintained between data types of a geo- database, and specify its usage in a specific scenario test, then setting weights to each and every data type representing some elements of a phenomenon related to urban suitability factor. The results of assessing the role of GIS analysis provided data collection specifications such as the measures of accuracy reliable to a certain type of GIS functional analysis used in an urban sustainability ranking scenario tests. This paper reflects the prior results of the research that is conducted to test the multidiscipline evaluation of urban sustainability using different indicator metrics, that implement vector GIS Analysis and Raster GIS analysis as basic tools to assist the evaluation and increase of its reliability besides assessing and decomposing it, after which a hypothetical implementation of the chosen evaluation model represented by various scenarios was implemented on the planned urban sustainability factors for a certain period of time to appraise the expected future grade of urban sustainability and come out with advises associated with scenarios for assuring gap filling and relative high urban future sustainability. The results this paper is reflecting are concentrating on the elements of vector and raster GIS analysis that assists the proper urban sustainability grading within the chosen model, the reliability of spatial data collected; analysis selected and resulted spatial information. Starting from selecting some important indicators to comprise the model which include regional culture, climate and community needs an example of what was used is Energy Demand & Consumption (Cooling systems). Thus, this factor is related to the climate and it's regional specific as the temperature varies around 30-45 degrees centigrade in city areas, GIS 3D Polygons of building data used to analyse the volume of buildings, attributes "building heights", estimate the number of floors from the equation, following energy demand was calculated and consumption for the unit volume, and compared it in scenario with possible sustainable energy supply or using different environmental friendly cooling systems this is followed by calculating the cooling system effects on an area unit selected to be 1 sq. km, combined with the level of greenery area, and open space, as represented by parks polygons, trees polygons, empty areas, pedestrian polygons and road surface area polygons. (initial measures showed that cooling system consumption can be reduced by around 15-20% with a well-planned building distributions, proper spaces and with using environmental friendly products and building material, temperature levels were also combined in the scenario extracted from satellite images as interpreted from thermal bands 3 times during the period of assessment. Other examples of the assessment of GIS analysis to urban sustainability took place included Waste Productivity, some effects of greenhouse gases measured by the intensity of road polygons and closeness to dwelling areas, industry areas as defined from land use land cover thematic maps produced from classified satellite images then vectors were created to take part in defining their role within the scenarios. City Noise and light intensity assessment was also investigated, as the region experiences rapid development and noise is magnified due to construction activities, closeness of the airports, and highways. The assessment investigated the measures taken by urban planners to reduce degradation or properly manage it. Finally as a conclusion tables were presented to reflect the scenario results in combination with GIS data types, analysis types, and the level of GIS data reliability to measure the sustainability level of a city related to cultural and regional demands.

Assessing the Formation of Experience-Based Gender Expectations in an Implicit Learning Scenario

PubMed Central

Öttl, Anton; Behne, Dawn M.

2017-01-01

The present study investigates the formation of new word-referent associations in an implicit learning scenario, using a gender-coded artificial language with spoken words and visual referents. Previous research has shown that when participants are explicitly instructed about the gender-coding system underlying an artificial lexicon, they monitor the frequency of exposure to male vs. female referents within this lexicon, and subsequently use this probabilistic information to predict the gender of an upcoming referent. In an explicit learning scenario, the auditory and visual gender cues are necessarily highlighted prior to acqusition, and the effects previously observed may therefore depend on participants' overt awareness of these cues. To assess whether the formation of experience-based expectations is dependent on explicit awareness of the underlying coding system, we present data from an experiment in which gender-coding was acquired implicitly, thereby reducing the likelihood that visual and auditory gender cues are used strategically during acquisition. Results show that even if the gender coding system was not perfectly mastered (as reflected in the number of gender coding errors), participants develop frequency based expectations comparable to those previously observed in an explicit learning scenario. In line with previous findings, participants are quicker at recognizing a referent whose gender is consistent with an induced expectation than one whose gender is inconsistent with an induced expectation. At the same time however, eyetracking data suggest that these expectations may surface earlier in an implicit learning scenario. These findings suggest that experience-based expectations are robust against manner of acquisition, and contribute to understanding why similar expectations observed in the activation of stereotypes during the processing of natural language stimuli are difficult or impossible to suppress. PMID:28936186

Thermoelectric transport properties in graphene connected molecular junctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, S. T.; Grosu, I.; Crisan, M.; Ţifrea, I.

2018-02-01

We study the electronic contribution to the main thermoelectric properties of a molecular junction consisting of a single quantum dot coupled to graphene external leads. The system electrical conductivity (G), Seebeck coefficient (S), and the thermal conductivity (κ), are numerically calculated based on a Green's function formalism that includes contributions up to the Hartree-Fock level. We consider the system leads to be made either of pure or gapped-graphene. To describe the free electrons in the gapped-graphene electrodes we used two possible scenarios, the massive gap scenario, and the massless gap scenario, respectively. In all cases, the Fano effect is responsible for a strong violation of the Wiedemann-Franz law and we found a substantial increase of the system figure of merit ZT due to a drastic reduction of the system thermal coefficient. In the case of gapped-graphene electrodes, the system figure of merit presents a maximum at an optimal value of the energy gap of the order of Δ / D ∼ 0.002 (massive gap scenario) and Δ / D ∼ 0.0026 (massless gap scenario). Additionally, for all cases, the system figure of merit is temperature dependent.

Dynamic Optical Networks for Future Internet Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matera, Francesco

2014-05-01

This article reports an overview on the evolution of the optical network scenario taking into account the exponential growth of connected devices, big data, and cloud computing that is driving a concrete transformation impacting the information and communication technology world. This hyper-connected scenario is deeply affecting relationships between individuals, enterprises, citizens, and public administrations, fostering innovative use cases in practically any environment and market, and introducing new opportunities and new challenges. The successful realization of this hyper-connected scenario depends on different elements of the ecosystem. In particular, it builds on connectivity and functionalities allowed by converged next-generation networks and their capacity to support and integrate with the Internet of Things, machine-to-machine, and cloud computing. This article aims at providing some hints of this scenario to contribute to analyze impacts on optical system and network issues and requirements. In particular, the role of the software-defined network is investigated by taking into account all scenarios regarding data centers, cloud computing, and machine-to-machine and trying to illustrate all the advantages that could be introduced by advanced optical communications.

Colorful Twisted Top Partners and Partnerium at the LHC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kats, Yevgeny; McCullough, Matthew; Perez, Gilad; Soreq, Yotam; Thaler, Jesse

2017-06-01

In scenarios that stabilize the electroweak scale, the top quark is typically accompanied by partner particles. In this work, we demonstrate how extended stabilizing symmetries can yield scalar or fermionic top partners that transform as ordinary color triplets but carry exotic electric charges. We refer to these scenarios as "hypertwisted" since they involve modifications to hypercharge in the top sector. As proofs of principle, we construct two hypertwisted scenarios: a supersymmetric construction with spin-0 top partners, and a composite Higgs construction with spin-1/2 top partners. In both cases, the top partners are still phenomenologically compatible with the mass range motivated by weak-scale naturalness. The phenomenology of hypertwisted scenarios is diverse, since the lifetimes and decay modes of the top partners are model dependent. The novel coupling structure opens up search channels that do not typically arise in top-partner scenarios, such as pair production of top-plus-jet resonances. Furthermore, hypertwisted top partners are typically sufficiently long lived to form "top-partnerium" bound states that decay predominantly via annihilation, motivating searches for rare narrow resonances with diboson decay modes.

Mirage events & driver haptic steering alerts in a motion-base driving simulator: A method for selecting an optimal HMI.

PubMed

Talamonti, Walter; Tijerina, Louis; Blommer, Mike; Swaminathan, Radhakrishnan; Curry, Reates; Ellis, R Darin

2017-11-01

This paper describes a new method, a 'mirage scenario,' to support formative evaluation of driver alerting or warning displays for manual and automated driving. This method provides driving contexts (e.g., various Times-To-Collision (TTCs) to a lead vehicle) briefly presented and then removed. In the present study, during each mirage event, a haptic steering display was evaluated. This haptic display indicated a steering response may be initiated to drive around an obstacle ahead. A motion-base simulator was used in a 32-participant study to present vehicle motion cues similar to the actual application. Surprise was neither present nor of concern, as it would be for a summative evaluation of a forward collision warning system. Furthermore, no collision avoidance maneuvers were performed, thereby reducing the risk of simulator sickness. This paper illustrates the mirage scenario procedures, the rating methods and definitions used with the mirage scenario, and analysis of the ratings obtained, together with a multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) approach to evaluate and select among alternative designs for future summative evaluation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing Binaural Pre-processing Strategies I

PubMed Central

Krawczyk-Becker, Martin; Marquardt, Daniel; Völker, Christoph; Hu, Hongmei; Herzke, Tobias; Coleman, Graham; Adiloğlu, Kamil; Ernst, Stephan M. A.; Gerkmann, Timo; Doclo, Simon; Kollmeier, Birger; Hohmann, Volker; Dietz, Mathias

2015-01-01

In a collaborative research project, several monaural and binaural noise reduction algorithms have been comprehensively evaluated. In this article, eight selected noise reduction algorithms were assessed using instrumental measures, with a focus on the instrumental evaluation of speech intelligibility. Four distinct, reverberant scenarios were created to reflect everyday listening situations: a stationary speech-shaped noise, a multitalker babble noise, a single interfering talker, and a realistic cafeteria noise. Three instrumental measures were employed to assess predicted speech intelligibility and predicted sound quality: the intelligibility-weighted signal-to-noise ratio, the short-time objective intelligibility measure, and the perceptual evaluation of speech quality. The results show substantial improvements in predicted speech intelligibility as well as sound quality for the proposed algorithms. The evaluated coherence-based noise reduction algorithm was able to provide improvements in predicted audio signal quality. For the tested single-channel noise reduction algorithm, improvements in intelligibility-weighted signal-to-noise ratio were observed in all but the nonstationary cafeteria ambient noise scenario. Binaural minimum variance distortionless response beamforming algorithms performed particularly well in all noise scenarios. PMID:26721920

Seismic hazard assessment over time: Modelling earthquakes in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Chung-Han; Wang, Yu; Wang, Yu-Ju; Lee, Ya-Ting

2017-04-01

To assess the seismic hazard with temporal change in Taiwan, we develop a new approach, combining both the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model and the Coulomb stress change, and implement the seismogenic source parameters by the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM). The BPT model was adopted to describe the rupture recurrence intervals of the specific fault sources, together with the time elapsed since the last fault-rupture to derive their long-term rupture probability. We also evaluate the short-term seismicity rate change based on the static Coulomb stress interaction between seismogenic sources. By considering above time-dependent factors, our new combined model suggests an increased long-term seismic hazard in the vicinity of active faults along the western Coastal Plain and the Longitudinal Valley, where active faults have short recurrence intervals and long elapsed time since their last ruptures, and/or short-term elevated hazard levels right after the occurrence of large earthquakes due to the stress triggering effect. The stress enhanced by the February 6th, 2016, Meinong ML 6.6 earthquake also significantly increased rupture probabilities of several neighbouring seismogenic sources in Southwestern Taiwan and raised hazard level in the near future. Our approach draws on the advantage of incorporating long- and short-term models, to provide time-dependent earthquake probability constraints. Our time-dependent model considers more detailed information than any other published models. It thus offers decision-makers and public officials an adequate basis for rapid evaluations of and response to future emergency scenarios such as victim relocation and sheltering.

Environmental impacts of food trade via resource use and greenhouse gas emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalin, Carole; Rodríguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2016-03-01

Agriculture will need to significantly intensify in the next decades to continue providing essential nutritive food to a growing global population. However, it can have harmful environmental impacts, due to the use of natural and synthetic resources and the emission of greenhouse gases, which alter the water, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and threaten the fertility, health and biodiversity of landscapes. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of resource productivity, farming practices, climate, and land and water availability, the environmental impact of producing food is highly dependent on its origin. For this reason, food trade can either increase or reduce the overall environmental impacts of agriculture, depending on whether or not the impact is greater in the exporting region. Here, we review current scientific understanding of the environmental impacts of food trade, focusing on water and land use, pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. In the case of water, these impacts are mainly beneficial. However, in the cases of pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, this conclusion is not as clear. Overall, there is an urgent need for a more comprehensive, integrated approach to estimate the global impacts of food trade on the environment. Second, research is needed to improve the evaluation of some key aspects of the relative value of each resource depending on the local and regional biophysical and socio-economic context. Finally, to enhance the impact of such evaluations and their applicability in decision-making, scenario analyses and accounting of key issues like deforestation and groundwater exhaustion will be required.

Integrated Disinfection By-Products Mixtures Research: Disinfection of Drinking Waters by Chlorination and Ozonation/Postchlorination Treatment Scenarios

EPA Science Inventory

This article describes disinfection of the same source water by two commonly used disinfection treatment scenarios for purposes of subsequent concentration, chemical analysis, and toxicological evaluation. Accompanying articles in this issue of the Journal of Toxicology and Envir...

HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clark, Corrie E.; Harto, Christopher B.; Schroeder, Jenna N.

This report is the third in a series of reports sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program in which a range of water-related issues surrounding geothermal power production are evaluated. The first report made an initial attempt at quantifying the life cycle fresh water requirements of geothermal power-generating systems and explored operational and environmental concerns related to the geochemical composition of geothermal fluids. The initial analysis of life cycle fresh water consumption of geothermal power-generating systems identified that operational water requirements consumed the vast majority of water across the life cycle. However, it relied upon limited operationalmore » water consumption data and did not account for belowground operational losses for enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs). A second report presented an initial assessment of fresh water demand for future growth in utility-scale geothermal power generation. The current analysis builds upon this work to improve life cycle fresh water consumption estimates and incorporates regional water availability into the resource assessment to improve the identification of areas where future growth in geothermal electricity generation may encounter water challenges. This report is divided into nine chapters. Chapter 1 gives the background of the project and its purpose, which is to assess the water consumption of geothermal technologies and identify areas where water availability may present a challenge to utility-scale geothermal development. Water consumption refers to the water that is withdrawn from a resource such as a river, lake, or nongeothermal aquifer that is not returned to that resource. The geothermal electricity generation technologies evaluated in this study include conventional hydrothermal flash and binary systems, as well as EGSs that rely on engineering a productive reservoir where heat exists, but where water availability or permeability may be limited. Chapter 2 describes the approach and methods for this work and identifies the four power plant scenarios evaluated: a 20-MW EGS binary plant, a 50-MW EGS binary plant, a 10-MW hydrothermal binary plant, and a 50-MW hydrothermal flash plant. The methods focus on (1) the collection of data to improve estimation of EGS stimulation volumes, aboveground operational consumption for all geothermal technologies, and belowground operational consumption for EGS; and (2) the mapping of the geothermal and water resources of the western United States to assist in the identification of potential water challenges to geothermal growth. Chapters 3 and 4 present the water requirements for the power plant life cycle. Chapter 3 presents the results of the current data collection effort, and Chapter 4 presents the normalized volume of fresh water consumed at each life cycle stage per lifetime energy output for the power plant scenarios evaluated. Over the life cycle of a geothermal power plant, from construction through 30 years of operation, the majority of water is consumed by plant operations. For the EGS binary scenarios, where dry cooling was assumed, belowground operational water loss is the greatest contributor depending upon the physical and operational conditions of the reservoir. Total life cycle water consumption requirements for air-cooled EGS binary scenarios vary between 0.22 and 1.85 gal/kWh, depending upon the extent of belowground operational water consumption. The air-cooled hydrothermal binary and flash plants experience far less fresh water consumption over the life cycle, at 0.04 gal/kWh. Fresh water requirements associated with air- cooled binary operations are primarily from aboveground water needs, including dust control, maintenance, and domestic use. Although wet-cooled hydrothermal flash systems require water for cooling, these plants generally rely upon the geofluid, fluid from the geothermal reservoir, which typically has high salinity and total dissolved solids concentration and is much warmer than normal groundwater sources, for their cooling water needs; thus, while there is considerable geofluid loss at 2.7 gal/kWh, fresh water consumption during operations is similar to that of aircooled binary systems. Chapter 5 presents the assessment of water demand for future growth in deployment of utility-scale geothermal power generation. The approach combines the life cycle analysis of geothermal water consumption with a geothermal supply curve according to resource type, levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and potential growth scenarios. A total of 17 growth scenarios were evaluated. In general, the scenarios that assumed lower costs for EGSs as a result of learning and technological improvements resulted in greater geothermal potential, but also significantly greater water demand due to the higher water consumption by EGSs. It was shown, however, that this effect could be largely mitigated if nonpotable water sources were used for belowground operational water demands. The geographical areas that showed the highest water demand for most growth scenarios were southern and northern California, as well as most of Nevada. In addition to water demand by geothermal power production, Chapter 5 includes data on water availability for geothermal development areas. A qualitative analysis is included that identifies some of the basins where the limited availability of water is most likely to affect the development of geothermal resources. The data indicate that water availability is fairly limited, especially under drought conditions, in most of the areas with significant near- and medium-term geothermal potential. Southern California was found to have the greatest potential for water-related challenges with its combination of high geothermal potential and limited water availability. The results of this work are summarized in Chapter 6. Overall, this work highlights the importance of utilizing dry cooling systems for binary and EGS systems and minimizing fresh water consumption throughout the life cycle of geothermal power development. The large resource base for EGSs represents a major opportunity for the geothermal industry; however, depending upon geology, these systems can require large quantities of makeup water due to belowground reservoir losses. Identifying potential sources of compatible degraded or low-quality water for use for makeup injection for EGS and flash systems represents an important opportunity to reduce the impacts of geothermal development on fresh water resources. The importance of identifying alternative water sources for geothermal systems is heightened by the fact that a large fraction of the geothermal resource is located in areas already experiencing water stress. Chapter 7 is a glossary of the technical terms used in the report, and Chapters 8 and 9 provide references and a bibliography, respectively.« less

Derivation of strontium-90 and cesium-137 residual radioactive material guidelines for the Laboratory for Energy-Related Health Research, University of California, Davis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nimmagadda, M.; Yu, C.

1993-04-01

Residual radioactive material guidelines for strontium-90 and cesium-137 were derived for the Laboratory for Energy-Related Health Research (LEHR) site in Davis, California. The guideline derivation was based on a dose limit of 100 mrem/yr. The US Department of Energy (DOE) residual radioactive material guideline computer code, RESRAD, was used in this evaluation; this code implements the methodology described in the DOE manual for implementing residual radioactive material guidelines. Three potential site utilization scenarios were considered with the assumption that, for a period of 1,000 years following remedial action, the site will be utilized without radiological restrictions. The defined scenarios varymore » with regard to use of the site, time spent at the site, and sources of food consumed. The results of the evaluation indicate that the basic dose limit of 100 mrem/yr will not be exceeded within 1,000 years for either strontium-90 or cesium-137, provided that the soil concentrations of these radionuclides at the LEHR site do not exceed the following levels: 71,000 pCi/g for strontium-90 and 91 pCi/g for cesium-137 for Scenario A (researcher: the expected scenario); 160,000 pCi/g for strontium-90 and 220 pCi/g for cesium-137 for Scenario B (recreationist: a plausible scenario); and 37 pCi/g for strontium-90 and 32 pCi/g for cesium-137 for Scenario C (resident farmer ingesting food produced in the contaminated area: a plausible scenario). The derived guidelines are single-radionuclide guidelines and are linearly proportional to the dose limit used in the calculations. In setting the actual strontium-90 and cesium-137 guidelines for the LEHR site, DOE will apply the as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) policy to the decision-making process, along with other factors such as whether a particular scenario is reasonable and appropriate.« less

Investigating impact of waste reuse on the sustainability of municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration industry using emergy approach: A case study from Sichuan province, China.

PubMed

Wang, Yanqing; Zhang, Xiaohong; Liao, Wenjie; Wu, Jun; Yang, Xiangdong; Shui, Wei; Deng, Shihuai; Zhang, Yanzong; Lin, Lili; Xiao, Yinlong; Yu, Xiaoyu; Peng, Hong

2018-04-25

China has become the largest generator of municipal solid waste (MSW) in the world with its rapid urbanization, population growth and raising living standard. Among diverse solid waste disposal technologies, MSW incineration has been becoming an attractive choice. In terms of systematic point, an integrated MSW incineration system should include an incineration subsystem and a bottom ash (BA) disposal subsystem. This paper employed an extend emergy assessment method with several improved indicators, which considers the emissions' impact, to evaluate the comprehensive performances of an integrated MSW incineration system. One existing incineration plant in Yibin City, Sichuan Province, China, as a case study, is evaluated using the proposed method. Three alternative scenarios (scenario A: the incineration subsystem + the BA landfill subsystem; scenario B: the incineration subsystem + the concrete paving brick production subsystem using BA as raw material; scenario C: the incineration subsystem + the non-burnt wall brick production subsystem using BA as raw material) were compared. The study results reveal that the ratio of positive output is 1.225, 2.861 and 1.230, the improved environmental loading ratio is 2.715, 2.742 and 1.533, and the improved environmental sustainability index is 0.451, 1.043 and 0.803 for scenario A, B and C respectively. Therefore, reuse of BA can enhance the sustainability level of this integrated system greatly. Comparatively, scenario B has the best comprehensive performance among the three scenarios. Finally, some targeted recommendations are put forward for decision-making. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A framework for modeling anthropogenic impacts on waterbird habitats: addressing future uncertainty in conservation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Young, Charles A.; Purkey, David R.

2015-01-01

The amount and quality of natural resources available for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife habitats are expected to decrease throughout the world in areas that are intensively managed for urban and agricultural uses. Changes in climate and management of increasingly limited water supplies may further impact water resources essential for sustaining habitats. In this report, we document adapting a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model for the Central Valley of California. We demonstrate using this adapted model (WEAP-CVwh) to evaluate impacts produced from plausible future scenarios on agricultural and wetland habitats used by waterbirds and other wildlife. Processed output from WEAP-CVwh indicated varying levels of impact caused by projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management in scenarios used to exemplify this approach. Among scenarios, the NCAR-CCSM3 A2 climate projection had a greater impact than the CNRM-CM3 B1 climate projection, whereas expansive urbanization had a greater impact than strategic urbanization, on annual availability of waterbird habitat. Scenarios including extensive rice-idling or substantial instream flow requirements on important water supply sources produced large impacts on annual availability of waterbird habitat. In the year corresponding with the greatest habitat reduction for each scenario, the scenario including instream flow requirements resulted in the greatest decrease in habitats throughout all months of the wintering period relative to other scenarios. This approach provides a new and useful tool for habitat conservation planning in the Central Valley and a model to guide similar research investigations aiming to inform conservation, management, and restoration of important wildlife habitats.

Using the Simulated Patient Methodology to Assess Paracetamol-Related Counselling for Headache

PubMed Central

Horvat, Nejc; Koder, Marko; Kos, Mitja

2012-01-01

Objectives Firstly, to assess paracetamol-related counselling. Secondly, to evaluate the patient’s approach as a determinant of counselling and to test the acceptability of the simulated patient method in Slovenian pharmacies. Methods The simulated patient methodology was used in 17 community pharmacies. Three scenarios related to self-medication for headaches were developed and used in all participating pharmacies. Two scenarios were direct product requests: scenario 1: a patient with an uncomplicated short-term headache; scenario 2: a patient with a severe, long-duration headache who takes paracetamol for too long and concurrently drinks alcohol. Scenario 3 was a symptom-based request: a patient asking for medicine for a headache. Pharmacy visits were audio recorded and scored according to predetermined criteria arranged in two categories: counselling content and manner of counselling. The acceptability of the methodology used was evaluated by surveying the participating pharmacists. Results The symptom-based request was scored significantly better (a mean 2.17 out of a possible 4 points) than the direct product requests (means of 1.64 and 0.67 out of a possible 4 points for scenario 1 and 2, respectively). The most common information provided was dosage and adverse effects. Only the symptom-based request stimulated spontaneous counselling. No statistically significant differences in the duration of the consultation between the scenarios were found. There were also no significant differences in the quality of counselling between the Masters of Pharmacy and Pharmacy Technicians. The acceptability of the SP method was not as high as in other countries. Conclusion The assessment of paracetamol-related counselling demonstrates room for practice improvement. PMID:23300691

Characterizing the roles of changing population size and selection on the evolution of flux control in metabolic pathways.

PubMed

Orlenko, Alena; Chi, Peter B; Liberles, David A

2017-05-25

Understanding the genotype-phenotype map is fundamental to our understanding of genomes. Genes do not function independently, but rather as part of networks or pathways. In the case of metabolic pathways, flux through the pathway is an important next layer of biological organization up from the individual gene or protein. Flux control in metabolic pathways, reflecting the importance of mutation to individual enzyme genes, may be evolutionarily variable due to the role of mutation-selection-drift balance. The evolutionary stability of rate limiting steps and the patterns of inter-molecular co-evolution were evaluated in a simulated pathway with a system out of equilibrium due to fluctuating selection, population size, or positive directional selection, to contrast with those under stabilizing selection. Depending upon the underlying population genetic regime, fluctuating population size was found to increase the evolutionary stability of rate limiting steps in some scenarios. This result was linked to patterns of local adaptation of the population. Further, during positive directional selection, as with more complex mutational scenarios, an increase in the observation of inter-molecular co-evolution was observed. Differences in patterns of evolution when systems are in and out of equilibrium, including during positive directional selection may lead to predictable differences in observed patterns for divergent evolutionary scenarios. In particular, this result might be harnessed to detect differences between compensatory processes and directional processes at the pathway level based upon evolutionary observations in individual proteins. Detecting functional shifts in pathways reflects an important milestone in predicting when changes in genotypes result in changes in phenotypes.

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayhoe, K.; Wake, C.P.; Huntington, T.G.; Luo, L.; Schwartz, M.D.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E.; Anderson, B.; Bradbury, J.; DeGaetano, A.; Troy, T.J.; Wolfe, D.

2007-01-01

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

Waste prevention in liquid detergent distribution: a comparison based on life cycle assessment.

PubMed

Nessi, Simone; Rigamonti, Lucia; Grosso, Mario

2014-11-15

The distribution of liquid detergents through self-dispensing systems has been adopted in some Italian retail stores over the last few years. By enabling the consumer to refill several times the same container, it is proposed as a less waste-generating and more environmentally friendly alternative to the traditional distribution with single-use plastic containers. For this reason, its implementation is encouraged by the national waste prevention programme recently adopted in Italy. In order to assess such claims, a life cycle assessment was carried out to evaluate whether detergent distribution through self-dispensing systems actually allows to achieve the expected reduction in waste generation and environmental impacts. The focus was on the distribution within the large-scale retail trade and on the categories of laundry detergents, fabric softeners and hand dishwashing detergents. For each of them, a set of baseline single-use scenarios were compared with two alternative waste prevention scenarios, where the detergent is distributed through self-dispensing systems. Beyond waste generation, also the Cumulative Energy Demand and thirteen midpoint-level potential impact indicators were calculated for the comparison. Results showed that a reduction in waste generation up to 98% can be achieved, depending on the category of detergent, on the baseline scenario of comparison and on the number of times the refillable container is used. A progressive reduction in the energy demand and in most of the potential impacts was also observed, starting from a minimum number of uses of the refillable container. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multisensor Equipped Uav/ugv for Automated Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batzdorfer, S.; Bobbe, M.; Becker, M.; Harms, H.; Bestmann, U.

2017-08-01

The usage of unmanned systems for exploring disaster scenarios has become more and more important in recent times as a supporting system for action forces. These systems have to offer a well-balanced relationship between the quality of support and additional workload. Therefore within the joint research project ANKommEn - german acronym for Automated Navigation and Communication for Exploration - a system for exploration of disaster scenarios is build-up using multiple UAV und UGV controlled via a central ground station. The ground station serves as user interface for defining missions and tasks conducted by the unmanned systems, equipped with different environmental sensors like cameras - RGB as well as IR - or LiDAR. Depending on the exploration task results, in form of pictures, 2D stitched orthophoto or LiDAR point clouds will be transmitted via datalinks and displayed online at the ground station or will be processed in short-term after a mission, e.g. 3D photogrammetry. For mission planning and its execution, UAV/UGV monitoring and georeferencing of environmental sensor data, reliable positioning and attitude information is required. This is gathered using an integrated GNSS/IMU positioning system. In order to increase availability of positioning information in GNSS challenging scenarios, a GNSS-Multiconstellation based approach is used, amongst others. The present paper focuses on the overall system design including the ground station and sensor setups on the UAVs and UGVs, the underlying positioning techniques as well as 2D and 3D exploration based on a RGB camera mounted on board the UAV and its evaluation based on real world field tests.

Prospective aquatic risk assessment for chemical mixtures in agricultural landscapes

PubMed Central

Brown, Colin D.; Hamer, Mick; Jones, Russell; Maltby, Lorraine; Posthuma, Leo; Silberhorn, Eric; Teeter, Jerold Scott; Warne, Michael St J; Weltje, Lennart

2018-01-01

Abstract Environmental risk assessment of chemical mixtures is challenging because of the multitude of possible combinations that may occur. Aquatic risk from chemical mixtures in an agricultural landscape was evaluated prospectively in 2 exposure scenario case studies: at field scale for a program of 13 plant‐protection products applied annually for 20 yr and at a watershed scale for a mixed land‐use scenario over 30 yr with 12 plant‐protection products and 2 veterinary pharmaceuticals used for beef cattle. Risk quotients were calculated from regulatory exposure models with typical real‐world use patterns and regulatory acceptable concentrations for individual chemicals. The results could differentiate situations when there was concern associated with single chemicals from those when concern was associated with a mixture (based on concentration addition) with no single chemical triggering concern. Potential mixture risk was identified on 0.02 to 7.07% of the total days modeled, depending on the scenario, the taxa, and whether considering acute or chronic risk. Taxa at risk were influenced by receiving water body characteristics along with chemical use profiles and associated properties. The present study demonstrates that a scenario‐based approach can be used to determine whether mixtures of chemicals pose risks over and above any identified using existing approaches for single chemicals, how often and to what magnitude, and ultimately which mixtures (and dominant chemicals) cause greatest concern. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:674–689. © 2017 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. PMID:29193235

Measurement of self-evaluative motives: a shopping scenario.

PubMed

Wajda, Theresa A; Kolbe, Richard; Hu, Michael Y; Cui, Annie Peng

2008-08-01

To develop measures of consumers' self-evaluative motives of Self-verification, Self-enhancement, and Self-improvement within the context of a mall shopping environment, an initial set of 49 items was generated by conducting three focus-group sessions. These items were subsequently converted into shopping-dependent motive statements. 250 undergraduate college students responded on a 7-point scale to each statement as these related to the acquisition of recent personal shopping goods. An exploratory factor analysis yielded five factors, accounting for 57.7% of the variance, three of which corresponded to the Self-verification motive (five items), Self-enhancement motive (three items), and Self-improvement motive (six items). These 14 items, along with 9 reconstructed items, yielded 23 items retained and subjected to additional testing. In a final round of data collection, 169 college students provided data for exploratory factor analysis. 11 items were used in confirmatory factor analysis. Analysis indicated that the 11-item scale adequately captured measures of the three self-evaluative motives. However, further data reduction produced a 9-item scale with marked improvement in statistical fit over the 11-item scale.

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

PubMed Central

Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

PubMed

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

Stress accumulation in the Marmara Sea estimated through ground-motion simulations from dynamic rupture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo; Douglas, John; Ulrich, Thomas

2017-03-01

We compare ground motions simulated from dynamic rupture scenarios, for the seismic gap along the North Anatolian Fault under the Marmara Sea (Turkey), to estimates from empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Ground motions are simulated using a finite difference method and a 3-D model of the local crustal structure. They are analyzed at more than a thousand locations in terms of horizontal peak ground velocity. Characteristics of probable earthquake scenarios are strongly dependent on the hypothesized level of accumulated stress, in terms of a normalized stress parameter T. With respect to the GMPEs, it is found that simulations for many scenarios systematically overestimate the ground motions at all distances. Simulations for only some scenarios, corresponding to moderate stress accumulation, match the estimates from the GMPEs. The difference between the simulations and the GMPEs is used to quantify the relative probabilities of each scenario and, therefore, to revise the probability of the stress field. A magnitude Mw7+ operating at moderate prestress field (0.6 < T ≤ 0.7) is statistically more probable, as previously assumed in the logic tree of probabilistic assessment of rupture scenarios. This approach of revising the mechanical hypothesis by means of comparison to an empirical statistical model (e.g., a GMPE) is useful not only for practical seismic hazard assessments but also to understand crustal dynamics.

Scenarios for Ultrafast Gamma-Ray Variability in AGN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aharonian, F. A.; Barkov, M. V.; Khangulyan, D.

2017-05-01

We analyze three scenarios to address the challenge of ultrafast gamma-ray variability reported from active galactic nuclei. We focus on the energy requirements imposed by these scenarios: (I) external cloud in the jet, (II) relativistic blob propagating through the jet material, and (III) production of high-energy gamma-rays in the magnetosphere gaps. We show that while the first two scenarios are not constrained by the flare luminosity, there is a robust upper limit on the luminosity of flares generated in the black hole magnetosphere. This limit depends weakly on the mass of the central black hole and is determined by the accretion disk magnetization, viewing angle, and the pair multiplicity. For the most favorable values of these parameters, the luminosity for 5-minute flares is limited by 2× {10}43 {erg} {{{s}}}-1, which excludes a black hole magnetosphere origin of the flare detected from IC 310. In the scopes of scenarios (I) and (II), the jet power, which is required to explain the IC 310 flare, exceeds the jet power estimated based on the radio data. To resolve this discrepancy in the framework of scenario (II), it is sufficient to assume that the relativistic blobs are not distributed isotropically in the jet reference frame. A realization of scenario (I) demands that the jet power during the flare exceeds by a factor 102 the power of the radio jet relevant to a timescale of 108 years.

Chemical mixtures: Evaluation of risk for child-specific exposures in a multi-stressor environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pohl, H.R.; Abadin, H.G.

Evaluating the health impact from exposure to chemical mixtures is multifaceted. One component is exposure. Exposure, and consequently risk assessment for mixtures and chemicals in general, are often viewed in terms of a given exposure to a given population at a given location over a given time period. However, environmental exposures are present throughout human lifetime. As a result, an evaluation of risk must include the distinctive characteristics related to chemical exposures which will impact risk depending upon the particular life stage where exposure occurs. Risks to offspring may be associated with unique exposures in utero, during infancy, childhood, ormore » adolescent periods. For example, exposure of infants to anthropogenic chemicals via breast milk may be of concern. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry's (ATSDR's) approach to evaluating risks associated with exposure to mixtures of chemicals is presented. In addition to the breast milk issues, indoor exposure to combined air pollutants, drinking water contaminants, and soil and dust contaminants are discussed. The difference between a mixture's risk evaluation for children and adults is in the distinct exposure scenarios resulting from variations in behavior, physiology, and/or pharmacokinetics between adults and children rather than in the method for the specific mixtures evaluation per se.« less

A scenario-planning approach to human resources for health: the case of community pharmacists in Portugal.

PubMed

Gregório, João; Cavaco, Afonso; Velez Lapão, Luís

2014-10-13

Health workforce planning is especially important in a setting of political, social, and economic uncertainty. Portuguese community pharmacists are experiencing such conditions as well as increasing patient empowerment, shortage of primary care physicians, and primary health care reforms. This study aims to design three future scenarios for Portuguese community pharmacists, recognizing the changing environment as an opportunity to develop the role that community pharmacists may play in the Portuguese health system. The community pharmacist scenario design followed a three-stage approach. The first stage comprised thinking of relevant questions to be addressed and definition of the scenarios horizon. The second stage comprised two face-to-face, scenario-building workshops, for which 10 experts from practice and academic settings were invited. Academic and professional experience was the main selection criteria. The first workshop was meant for context analysis and design of draft scenarios, while the second was aimed at scenario analysis and validation. The final scenarios were built merging workshops' information with data collected from scientific literature followed by team consensus. The final stage involved scenario development carried by the authors alone, developing the narratives behind each scenario. Analysis allowed the identification of critical factors expected to have particular influence in 2020 for Portuguese community pharmacists, leading to two critical uncertainties: the "Legislative environment" and "Ability to innovate and develop services". Three final scenarios were built, namely "Pharmacy-Mall", "e-Pharmacist", and "Reorganize or Die". These scenarios provide possible trends for market needs, pharmacist workforce numbers, and expected qualifications to be developed by future professionals. In all scenarios it is clear that the future advance of Portuguese community pharmacists will depend on pharmaceutical services provision beyond medicine dispensing. This innovative professional role will require the acquisition or development of competencies in the fields of management, leadership, marketing, information technologies, teamwork abilities, and behavioural and communication skills. To accomplish a sustainable evolution, legislative changes and adequate financial incentives will be beneficial. The scenario development proves to be valuable as a strategic planning tool, not only for understanding future community pharmacist needs in a complex and uncertain environment, but also for other health care professionals.

Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

2005-09-01

In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model studies of the effects of these emissions on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on climate. The developed scenarios are suitable for use as input for chemical transport models (CTMs) and coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs).

Test and Evaluation of MeshDynamics 802.11 Multi-Radio Mesh Modules in Support of Coalition Riverine Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

scenario, occurring just north of Chiang Mai , Thailand at the Mae Ngat Dam. Figure 3 is a map of Thailand and some of its bordering countries...displayed, and distributed in real-time to local ( Chiang Mai ), theater (Bangkok), and global (Alameda and Monterey, CA) Command and Control (C2) 11...systems in support of tactical action scenarios. This year’s COASTS scenario took place at the Mae Ngat Dam, located just north of Chiang Mai , Thailand

Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

2013-04-01

The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc. Nonetheless, according to the results of this work future ozone is conditioned by the dependence of biogenic emissions on the climatological patterns of variability. In this sense, ozone over Europe is mainly driven by the warming-induced increase in biogenic emitting activity (vegetation is kept invariable in the simulations, but estimations of these emissions strongly depends on shortwave radiation and temperature, which are substantially modified in climatic simulations). Moreover, one of the most important drivers for ozone increase is the decrease of cloudiness (related to stronger solar radiation) mostly over southern Europe at the first half of the XXI century. However, given the large uncertainty isoprene sensitivity to climate change and the large uncertainties associated to the cloudiness projections, these results should be carefully considered.

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Balshi, M. S.; McGuire, Anthony David; Duffy, P.; Flannigan, M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Melillo, J.

2009-01-01

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO2fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO2 fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO2 fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO2 fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post-fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.

How to Assess Vulnerabilities of Water Policies to Global Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, A.; Haasnoot, M.; Weijs, S.

2017-12-01

Water managers are confronted with uncertainties arising from hydrological, societal, economical and political drivers. To manage these uncertainties two paradigms have been identified: top-down and bottom-up approaches. Top-down or prediction-based approaches use socio-economic scenarios together with a discrete set of GCM projections (often downscaled) to assess the expected impact of drivers and policies on water resource system through various hydrological and social systems models. Adaptation strategies to alleviate these impacts are then identified and tested against the scenarios. To address GCM and downscaling uncertainties, these approaches put more focus on climate predictions, rather than the decision problem itself. Triggered by the wish to have a more scenario-neutral approach and address downscaling uncertainties, recent analyses have been shifted towards vulnerability-based (bottom-up or decision-centric) approaches. They begin at the local scale by addressing socio-economic responses to climate, often involving stakeholder's input; identify vulnerabilities under a larger sample of plausible futures and evaluate sensitivity and robustness of possible adaptation options. Several bottom-up approaches have emerged so far and are increasingly recommended. Fundamentally they share several core ideas, however, subtle differences exist in vulnerability assessment, visualization tools for exploring vulnerabilities and computational methods used for identifying robust water policies. Through this study, we try to identify how these approaches are progressing, how the climate and non-climate uncertainties are being confronted and how to integrate existing and new tools. We find that choice of a method may depend on the number of vulnerability drivers identified and type of threshold levels (environmental conditions or policy objectives) defined. Certain approaches are suited well for assessing adaptive capacities, tipping points and sequencing of decisions. However, visualization of the vulnerability domain is still challenging if multiple drivers are present. New emerging tools are focused on generating synthetic scenarios, addressing multiple objectives, linking decision-making frameworks to adaptation pathways and communicating risks to the stakeholders.